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Contents Introduction What is fundamental analysis? Fundamental analysis (FA) vs. technical analysis (TA) Popular indicators in fundamental analysis Earnings per share (EPS) Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio Price-to-book (P/B) ratio Price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio Fundamental analysis and cryptocurrencies Network value-to-transactions (NVT) ratio Active addresses Price-to-mining breakeven ratio Whitepaper, team, and roadmap  Pros and cons of fundamental analysis Closing thoughts   Introduction When it comes to trading – whether you’re dealing with century-old stocks or nascent cryptocurrencies – there’s no exact science involved. Or, if there is, Wall Street’s top players ensure that the formula remains a well-kept secret. What we have instead is a vast array of tools and methodologies employed by traders and investors. For the most part, you can sort these techniques into two categories: fundamental analysis (FA) and technical analysis (TA). In this article, we’ll dive into the basics of fundamental analysis. Learn more on Binance.com   What is fundamental analysis? Fundamental analysis is a method used by investors and traders to attempt to establish the intrinsic value of assets or businesses. To value these accurately, they’ll rigorously study internal and external factors to determine whether the asset or business in question is overvalued or undervalued. Their conclusions can then help to better formulate a strategy that will be more likely to yield good returns. For instance, if you took an interest in a company, you might first study things like the company’s earnings, balance sheets, financial statements, and cash flow to get a feel for its financial health. You might then zoom out of the organization to look at the market or industry it’s operating in. Who are the competitors? What demographics is the company targeting? Is it expanding its reach? You could zoom out even further to take into account the economic considerations like interest rates and inflation, to name just a couple of factors. The above is what’s known as a bottom-up approach: you start with a company you’re interested in and work your way up to understand its place in the broader economy. But you could equally adopt a top-down approach, where you narrow down your picks by first examining the bigger picture. The end goal with this type of analysis is to generate an expected share price and to compare it with the current price. If the number is higher than the current price, you might conclude that it’s undervalued. If it’s lower than the market price, then you could assume that it’s presently overvalued. Armed with the data from your analysis, you can make informed decisions about whether to buy or sell that particular company’s stock.   Fundamental analysis (FA) vs. technical analysis (TA) Traders and investors new to the cryptocurrency, forex, or stock markets are often confused over which approach to take. Fundamental analysis and technical analysis stand in stark contrast and rely on significantly different methodologies to analyze different things. And yet, both provide data relevant to trading. So which one is best? In fact, it might make more sense to question what each brings to the table. In essence, fundamental analysts believe that stock price is not necessarily indicative of the stock’s true value – an ideology that underpins their investment decisions.  Conversely, technical analysts believe that future price movement can be somewhat predicted from past price action and volume data. They don’t concern themselves with studying external factors, preferring instead to focus on price charts, patterns, and trends in markets. They aim to identify ideal points for entering and exiting positions. Proponents of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it’s impossible to consistently outperform the market with technical analysis (TA). The theory suggests that financial markets represent all known information about assets (that they are “rational”) and that they already take into account historical data. “Weaker” versions of the EMH do not discredit fundamental analysis, but “stronger” forms argue that it’s impossible, even with rigorous research, to gain a competitive edge. Understandably, there is no objectively better strategy out of the pair, as both can present valuable insights into different areas. Some may lend themselves better to certain trading styles, and, in practice, many traders use a combination of both to observe the bigger picture. This is true for short-term trades as it is for long-term investments.   Popular indicators in fundamental analysis We don’t look to candlesticks, MACD, or RSI for insights in fundamental analysis – there are a handful of FA-specific indicators that are used instead. In this section, we’ll discuss some of the most popular ones.   Earnings per share (EPS) Earnings per share is an established measure of a company’s profitability, telling us how much profit it makes for each outstanding share. It’s calculated using the following formula: (net income - preferred dividends) / number of shares   Suppose that a company doesn’t pay out dividends, and its profit is $1 million. With 200,000 shares issued, the formula gives us an EPS of $5. The calculation is not a particularly complex one, but it can provide us with some insight into potential investments. Businesses with higher (or growing) EPS are typically more attractive to investors. Diluted earnings per share is favored by some, as it also takes into account factors that could increase the total number of shares. In the case of stock options, for example, employees are given the option to purchase company stock. Because this generally gives a higher number of shares to divide the net income, we would expect to see a lower value for diluted EPS versus simple EPS. As with all indicators, earnings per share should not be the sole metric used to value a prospective investment. That said, it’s a handy tool when used alongside others.   Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio The price-to-earnings ratio (or, simply, P/E ratio) values a business by comparing share price with its EPS. It’s calculated with the following formula: share price / earnings per share   Let’s reuse the same company from the previous example, which had an EPS of $5. Let’s say that each share trades at $10, which would give us a P/E ratio of 2. What does that mean? Well, it depends largely on what the rest of our research shows.  Many use the profit-to-earnings ratio to determine whether a stock is overvalued (if the ratio is higher) or undervalued (if the ratio is lower). It’s a good idea to take the number into account by comparing it with the P/E ratio of similar businesses. Again, this rule doesn’t always hold true, so it’s best used alongside other quantitative and qualitative analysis techniques.   Price-to-book (P/B) ratio The price-to-book ratio (also known as the price-to-equity ratio or the P/B ratio) can tell us about how investors value the company in relation to its book value. The book value is a business’s value as defined in its financial reports (typically, assets minus liabilities). The calculation looks like this: price per share / book value per share   Let’s once again revisit our company from previous examples. We’ll assume that it has a book value of $500,000. Each share trades at $10, and there are 200,000 of them. Our book value per share is, therefore, $500,000 divided by 200,000, which gives us $2.5.  Plugging the numbers into the formula, $10 divided by $2.5 gives us a price-to-book ratio of 4. On the surface, this doesn’t look too good. It tells us that shares are currently trading for four times what the company is actually worth on paper. It could suggest that the market is overvaluing the business, perhaps by expecting huge growth. If we had a ratio of less than 1, it would point to the business having more value than the market currently recognizes. A limitation of the price-to-book ratio is that it’s better suited to the assessment of “asset-heavy” businesses. After all, companies with little physical assets are not well-represented.   Price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio Price/earnings-to-growth ratio (PEG) is an extension to the profit-to-earnings ratio, expanding its scope to take growth rates into account. It uses the following formula: price-to-earnings ratio / earnings growth rate   The earnings growth rate is an estimate of the predicted growth in earnings for the company in a set time frame. We express it as a percentage. Suppose that we’ve estimated average growth of 10% over the next five years for our aforementioned company. We take the price-to-earnings ratio (2) and divide it by 10 to reach a ratio of 0.2. That ratio would suggest that the company is a good investment as it’s heavily undervalued when we factor in future growth. Any business with a ratio of less than 1, generally speaking, is undervalued. Any above could be overvalued. The PEG ratio is favored over the P/E one by many, as it considers a fairly important variable that P/E omits.   ➟ Looking to get started with cryptocurrency? Buy Bitcoin on Binance!   Fundamental analysis and cryptocurrencies The aforementioned metrics aren’t really applicable in cryptocurrency. Instead, you might look to other factors to assess a project’s viability. In the following section are a handful of indicators used by cryptocurrency traders.   Network value-to-transactions (NVT) ratio Often regarded as the P/E ratio equivalent of the cryptocurrency markets, the NVT ratio is fast becoming a staple in crypto FA. It can be calculated as follows: network value / daily transaction volume   NVT attempts to interpret a given network’s value based on the value of transactions it processes. Suppose that you have two projects: Coin A and Coin B. Both have a market capitalization of $1,000,000. However, Coin A has a daily transaction volume worth $50,000, whereas Coin B’s is worth $10,000. The NVT ratio for Coin A is 20, and the NVT for Coin B is 100. Generally speaking, assets with lower NVT ratios are considered undervalued, while those with higher ratios may be considered overvalued. These merits alone suggest that Coin A is undervalued compared to Coin B.   Active addresses Some look to the number of active addresses on a network to gauge how much it’s being used. While not reliable as a standalone indicator (the metric can be gamed), it can nonetheless reveal information about network activity. You might factor that into your true valuation of a given digital asset.   Price-to-mining-breakeven ratio The price-to-mining-breakeven ratio is a metric for valuing Proof of Work coins, which are mined by network participants. It takes into account the costs associated with this process: namely, electricity and hardware expenditure. coin market price / cost to mine a coin   The price-to-mining-breakeven ratio can reveal a lot about the current state of a blockchain network. The breakeven refers to the cost of mining a coin – for instance, if it’s at $10,000, then miners typically spend $10,000 to generate a new unit. Suppose that Coin A trades at $5,000 and Coin B at $20,000, and both have a breakeven point of $10,000. Coin A’s ratio will be 0.5, while Coin B’s will be 2. Since Coin A’s ratio is under 1, it tells us that miners are operating at a loss to mine the coin. Mining Coin B is profitable as, for every $10,000 spent mining, you would expect to make $20,000. Because of the incentives, you might anticipate that the ratio would trend towards 1 over time. For Coin A, those mining at a loss would likely leave the network unless the price increased. Coin B has an attractive reward, so you’d expect more miners to join to take advantage of it until it’s no longer profitable. The effectiveness of this indicator is disputed. Still, it gives you an idea of the mining economics, which you can factor into your overall assessment of a digital asset.   Whitepaper, team, and roadmap The most popular method for establishing the value of cryptocurrencies and tokens involves some good old-fashioned research into the project. Reading a whitepaper, you can understand a project’s goals, its use cases, and its technology. The track records of team members give you an idea of their ability to build and scale the product. Lastly, a roadmap tells you whether the project is on track. It can be supplemented with additional research to determine the likelihood that the project will hit its milestones.   Pros and cons of fundamental analysis Pros of fundamental analysis Fundamental analysis is a robust methodology for assessing businesses in a way that technical analysis simply cannot compete with. To investors worldwide, studying a range of qualitative and quantitative factors is a crucial starting point for any trade. Anyone can conduct fundamental analysis as it relies on tried-and-tested techniques and readily-available business data. Or at least, this is the case in traditional markets. Indeed, if we look to cryptocurrency (still a small industry), data is not always available, and a heavy correlation between assets means that FA might not be as effective. Done correctly, it provides a foundation for identifying stocks currently undervalued and poised to appreciate over time. Top investors like Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham have consistently demonstrated that rigorous research into businesses in this manner can yield tremendous results.   Cons of fundamental analysis It’s easy to do fundamental analysis, but it’s tougher to do good fundamental analysis. Determining the “intrinsic value” of a stock is a time-consuming process that requires a lot more work than just plugging numbers into a formula. Many factors need to be assessed, and the learning curve for doing so effectively can be steep. What’s more, it’s better suited to long-term trades than short-term ones. This type of analysis also overlooks powerful market forces and trends that technical analysis can identify. As economist John Maynard Keynes once said:  The market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Stocks that appear undervalued (by every metric) are not guaranteed to increase in value in the future.   Closing thoughts Fundamental analysis is an established practice that some of the most successful traders swear by. By refining a strategy, investors can not only learn to better estimate the true value of stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other assets but also understand businesses and industries better as a whole. Combined with technical analysis, fundamental analysis can give traders and investors a well-rounded understanding of which assets and businesses they could profit from. The combination of FA and TA is favored by many in both the legacy and cryptocurrency markets. Given the nascency of the crypto markets, however, you should understand that FA may not be as effective. Always Do Your Own Research and ensure that you have a solid risk management strategy in place.   ➟ Questions about Fundamental Analysis? Head over to Ask Academy to discuss them with the community!

Bitcoin is up 9% over the past week, ending at around $41,700. Ethereum is up 15%. Altcoins also woke up from hibernation and grew stronger than the market: from 5.8% (Binance Coin) to 17.3% (Solana).Over the same period, the total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, grew by 11.2%, up to $1.99 trillion.The primary growth of the crypto market last week came on Friday when bitcoin at the end of the day soared by 10% in a few hours. The increase was not prevented even by strong data on the US labor market, which came out a couple of hours before the jump.It is worth noting that the Nonfarm Payrolls can force the Fed to move faster to tighten monetary policy. Against this background, the yield of 10-year Treasuries jumped above 1.93%, hitting new two-year highs, and this could soon lead to sales in the stock market. If cryptocurrencies manage to resist and continue to grow, this will be a serious trend reversal order. Just like on Friday, when investors decided to buy BTC in order to protect investments from inflation.Since then, Bitcoin has already added 17%, moving into a phase of an active uptrend. Technically, the first cryptocurrency broke the resistance of the descending corridor. Accelerating growth and steady buying throughout the weekend indicate a strong bullish momentum. Cautious investors are now looking at the test of the 50-day moving average. Previously, repeatedly fixing above this line preceded a multi-month uptrend.Potentially, this will also be lost now. Therefore, some players consider this impulse as an important first signal of a recovery in demand for risky assets, despite fears of a rate increase.Meanwhile, billionaire Ray Dalio has warned that a number of governments could outlaw cryptocurrencies. The government of the Russian Federation is considering introducing a tax on miners of at least 15%. According to the authorities, the tax on all participants in the crypto market can bring up to 1 trillion rubles to the treasury. In the meantime, the Fed has presented the Digital Dollar White Paper, but the issue of its future launch has not yet been resolved.

USDCHF bounces higherThe US dollar rallied after January’s nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations. The latest pullback found support near the previous low at 0.9180.A bullish RSI divergence suggests a loss of momentum in the sell-off. A close above 0.9275 would force short-term sellers to cover and pave the way for a broader rebound.Then the double top (0.9360) on the daily chart would be the next target. On the downside, a bearish breakout may send the pair to 0.9110.USDCAD awaits breakoutThe loonie weakened after a rise in Canada’s unemployment rate in January. The greenback has previously come to a halt at the daily resistance (1.2800).The retracement then found bids at the resistance-turned-support at 1.2650, suggesting traders’ strong interest in keeping the two-week-long rally intact. The RSI has inched into the overbought territory and may drive the price lower with short-term profit-taking.A bullish breakout may extend the uptrend to December’s peak at 1.2950.GER 40 lacks supportThe Dax 40 drifts lower after the ECB’s hawkish turn. The recent rebound met stiff selling pressure at 15740. Then a fall below 15350 indicates a lack of commitment from the buy-side.A bearish MA cross suggests an acceleration to the downside and may attract more bears. The demand area around 14850 is a critical floor on the daily chart. Its breach could trigger a bearish reversal in the medium term.An oversold RSI may cause a limited bounce. The bulls need to reclaim 15500 in order to turn sentiment around.

Friday's US labour market report raised the chances of a sharper Fed rate hike, placing USD on a solid footing.Employment growth of 467K in January was well above forecasts. In addition, there was a noticeable upward revision to the job gains of the previous couple of months. Furthermore, wage growth accelerated to 5.7% y/y, marking the unwinding of the inflationary spiral.The markets are applying a 33% chance of a 50-point key rate hike by the Fed in March, leaving a 67% chance of a standard move of 25 points. This is a dramatic reassessment of the outlook, as just a month ago, rate futures were leaving a 24% chance that there would be no rate hike in March.Hawkish comments from Europe and England has added fuel to the fire. Last week, the Bank of England minutes 4 out of 9 MPC members voted for a 50 point rate hike. The ECB is warming to a rate hike this year and potentially twice, although they rejected the idea back in December.In our view, Friday's labour market report showed that the US still has a head start on the pace of economic recovery, which will allow for more monetary policy tightening.This is potentially positive news for the dollar, which found ground late last week after correcting by 2.3% from its peak in late January. If the Fed strengthens its signals of willingness to hike the rate by 50 points in mid-March in the coming weeks, it will be grounds for stronger dollar buying.History suggests that the momentum of the appreciation of the US currency against major competitors is exhausted a few months after a rate hike. Usually, it becomes clear that other central banks have already moved on to the pace of Fed rate hikes and are often even prepared to act more decisively.But we are not yet in this phase, and the Fed's policy, as well as the US economic indicators, provide the dollar with a head start for the foreseeable future. As early as February, the dollar index could rewrite the January highs near 97.5 against the current 95.56 and take the DXY into the 100-103 area by mid-year.

Industrial production in Germany fell by 0.3% for December and by 4.1% on the same month a year earlier. A deeper fall compared to the previous month, while surveyed analysts on average expected production to rise by 0.4% over the same period.The new data underscores the difficult choices the ECB will have to make in the coming months as record price growth rates go hand in hand with falling economic activity.The ECB will have to make choices as record inflation in decades requires tightening monetary policy and supporting the euro. On the other hand, industrial activity has been in a downtrend for almost four years.A rise in interest rates is likely to increase pressure on manufacturing activity and increase borrowing costs, negatively affecting consumer credit.The market reaction since last week suggests that the ECB will switch to fighting inflation, but the fading momentum in the economy calls this scenario into question

S&P 500 refused to break below 4,450s, and junk bonds took off the lows as well. The bottom isn‘t in, but I‘m looking for a little reprieve next. The degree to which bonds were sold off vs. stocks, hints that we would have lower to go still, ultimately bottoming around late Feb, perhaps even early Mar. Increasingly more Fed hikes are being priced in, and Friday‘s good non-farm payrolls figure is reinforcing these expectations.Treasuries are telling the story as well – the 10-year yield has been surging lately while the 30-year bond didn‘t move nearly as much. It means a lot of focus on Fed tightening, which is making the recent Amazon and Meta earnings ability to move stocks this much, all the better for the S&P 500 in the short run. The 10-year yield is likely to retrace a part of its prior increase, and that would give stocks some breathing room. At the same time though, I don‘t think that the tech selling is done, that tech is out of the woods now – the current rally is likely to run out of steam over the next 5-10 days, then go sideways to down.As for the immediate plan for Monday‘s session, I think the 4460s would hold on any retest, should we get there at all. The bulls have a very short-term advantage, then as mentioned above, selling would resume, and around May or June we could get the answer as to whether we‘ve been just consolidating or topping out. Before that, we‘re in a quite wide range where current stock market values aren‘t truly reflecting bond market sluggishness.Keeping in mind the key Friday‘s conclusion:(…) Precious metals are holding up relatively well, regardless of the miners‘ weakness. Commodities can go on enjoying their time in the limelight – crude oil is not even momentarily dipping, and copper stands ready to keep probing higher values within its still sideways range. Even cryptos are benefiting from what could almost be described as a daily flight to safety.As I wrote in extensive Monday‘s analysis and repeated since, stiff winds are still ahead in spite of the soothing verbal pause in tightening. As the 467K figure just in beats expectations, the Fed gets its justification to withdraw liquidity any way it pleases.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls aren‘t yet winning, but have a good chance to suck in those who believe the tech bottom is in – tech bears would get another opportunity in the not too distant future.Credit MarketsHYG paused, and the heavy selling is catching a bid – reprieve is approaching even if Friday‘s highs didn‘t last.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals aren‘t getting anywhere, and are likely to warmly embrace the upcoming pause in higher yields. But that‘s not yet the true fireworks we would get later in 2022, which would come on the Fed‘s abrupt U-turn.Crude OilCrude oil bulls aren‘t even remotely pausing – I wouldn‘t count on pullback towards $88 or lower really. There is still much strength in black gold regardless of the Iran sanctions waiver – triple digit oil I called for months ago, is getting near.CopperCopper is back to the middle of its recent range, and the downside looks fairly well defended. The upside breakout would take time, and precede the precious metals one. Rising commodities are still sending a clear message as to which way the wind is blowing.Bitcoin and EthereumThe crypto break higher attests to the return of strength underway, and it‘s supported by the volume. The buyers have the short-term upper hand.SummaryS&P 500 bulls withstood the prospect of hawkish Fed getting more job market leeway on Friday, and look to be entering the week with a slight advantage. Also the bond markets look nearning the moment of calming down as the longer durations are painting a different picture than the 10-year Treasury. S&P 500 would like that, but the tech rebound would get tested as we likely move lower to welcome Mar. Till then, stocks are likely to drift somewhat higher before the rally runs out of steam over the next 5-10 days. Full game plan with reasoning is introduced in the opening part of today‘s extensive analysis. Cryptos good performance on Friday is as promising as the commodities surge – enjoy the days ahead.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Bitcoin price looks overextended as it grapples with the 50-day SMA and the weekly resistance barrier at $42,816. Ethereum price pierces through the bearish breaker and approaches the 50-day SMA at $3,242. Ripple price approaches the $0.757 to $0.807 supply zone that could cut the uptrend short. Bitcoin price has seen tremendous gains over the past three days as it attempts to overcome a massive hurdle. While altcoins like Ethereum and Ripple have corresponded to this bullishness, investors need to exercise caution with fresh investments as a retracement could be around the corner. Bitcoin price faces a decisive moment Bitcoin price has risen 18% over the past four days and is currently hovering below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the weekly resistance barrier confluence at $42,816. If this uptrend is a bull trap, BTC is likely to see rejection followed by a retracement to the immediate support level at $8,481. A breakdown of the said barrier will knock the big crypto down to $34,752. In an extremely bearish case, Bitcoin price could revisit the $30,000 psychological barrier and collect the liquidity resting below it. BTC/USD 1-day chart If BTC produces a daily candlestick close above the breaker’s upper limit at $44,387, however, it will invalidate the bearish thesis. While this development will alleviate the sell-side pressure, it does not mean that Bitcoin price has flipped bullish. A daily candlestick close above $52,000 will produce a higher high and suggest the possible start of an uptrend. Ethereum price slithers close to bearish thesis invalidation Ethereum price has followed the big crypto and pierced the bearish breaker, ranging from $2,789 to $3,167. Any further bullish momentum will push ETH to climb higher and retest the 50-day SMA at $3,242. Assuming BTC retraces, investors can expect Ethereum price to face rejection at $3,242, leading to a 25% pullback to the weekly support level at $2,324. In a highly bearish case, Ethereum price could revisit the $1,730 weekly support level and collect the sell-side liquidity resting below it. ETH/USD 1-day chart Regardless of the bearish outlook, the Ethereum price can invalidate the short-term bearish outlook if it produces a daily candlestick close above the $3,167 resistance zone. A bullish scenario could be kick-started, however, if buyers push ETH to produce a swing high at $3,413. Ethereum price gains momentum to breakout to $3,300 Ripple price faces a blockade Ripple price broke out of its consolidation and rallied 25% from $0.604 to $0.754. This impressive move is currently retesting the weekly resistance barrier at $0.740, which rests below another hurdle that extends from $0.757 to $0.807. Rejection at this multi-resistance zone seems likely considering the situation in which Bitcoin is in, and investors can expect the Ripple price to retrace 16%, returning to the consolidation zone at $0.628. XRP/USD 1-day chart A daily candlestick close above the supply zone’s upper limit at $0.807 will signal a resurgence of buyers and indicate their willingness to move higher. In this case, Ripple price could set up a higher high by rallying 12% to $0.911.    

On Monday, Bitcoin rose 5.5%, ending the day around $44,100. Ethereum added 5%, and other leading altcoins from the top ten also showed growing dynamics: from 4% (Solana) to 18.5% (XRP). The total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 5.5% over the day to $2.10 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index has not changed, remaining at 39.2%. The Bitcoin chart continues to paint a bullish picture. With the price at $45K on Tuesday morning, BTCUSD is trading above the 50-day moving average just above the mid-January pivot area and above the down channel resistance level. At the same time, the RSI on the daily charts has not yet entered the overbought area, leaving room for further growth.  The same can be said about the entire cryptocurrency market, where the fear and greed index has reached a neutral point of 48 and is still far from the greed area. The next target for the bulls looks to be $48K, the December support area in December. Further targets are $49-50K, where the 200-day moving average and significant round level are concentrated. The XRP token soared amid reports of a significant approach to the resolution of Ripple's legal dispute with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).Cryptocurrencies briefly stopped responding to movements in US stock indices, which started the week with a decline. The purchases probably included retail investors, who were driven by the desire not to miss the beginning of the market growth (FOMO). However, their buying potential is unlikely to be enough if stock indicators intensify their decline and large institutional investors come into play, wishing to resume profit-taking. KPMG, one of the world's largest auditors, has added Bitcoin and Ethereum to its Canadian division's corporate reserves. This is the firm's first direct investment in cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, at the end of 2021, Tesla received a loss of $ 101 million from a decrease in the cost of previously purchased bitcoins, which it spent $ 1.5 billion on. Previously, Elon Musk called the decision to acquire BTC as a reserve asset quite risky. 

  Gold’s latest feats increased investors’ appetite. The outlook for the dollar, however, remains healthy. That can only mean one thing. As volatility erupts across the financial markets, gold and silver prices are being pulled in conflicting directions. For example, with the USD Index suffering a short-term decline, the outcome is fundamentally bullish for the precious metals. However, with U.S. Treasury yields rallying, the outcome is fundamentally bearish for gold and silver prices. Then, with panic selling and panic buying confronting the general stock market, the PMs are dealing with those crosscurrents. However, with QE on its deathbed and the Fed poised to raise the Federal Funds Rate in the coming months, the common denominator is rising real interest rates. To explain, the euro’s recent popularity has impacted the USD Index. For context, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the dollar basket’s movement. Thus, if real interest rates rise and the U.S. dollar falls, what will happen to the PMs? Well, the reality is that rising real interest rates are bullish for the USD Index, and the euro’s recent ECB-induced rally is far from a surprise. With investors often buying the EUR/USD in anticipation of a hawkish shift from the ECB, another ‘hopeful’ upswing occurred. However, the central bank disappointed investors time and time again in 2021, and the currency pair continued to make new lows. As a result, we expect the downtrend to resume over the medium term.  Supporting our expectations, I wrote the following about financial conditions and the USD Index on Feb. 2: To explain, the blue line above tracks Goldman Sachs' Financial Conditions Index (FCI). For context, the index is calculated as a "weighted average of riskless interest rates, the exchange rate, equity valuations, and credit spreads, with weights that correspond to the direct impact of each variable on GDP." In a nutshell: when interest rates increase alongside credit spreads, it's more expensive to borrow money and financial conditions tighten. To that point, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the FCI has surpassed its pre-COVID-19 high (January 2020). Moreover, the FCI bottomed in January 2021 and has been seeking higher ground ever since. In the process, it's no coincidence that the PMs have suffered mightily since January 2021. To that point, with the Fed poised to raise interest rates at its March monetary policy meeting, the FCI should continue its ascent. As a result, the PMs' relief rallies should fall flat like in 2021.  Likewise, while the USD Index has come down from its recent high, it's no coincidence that the dollar basket bottomed with the FCI in January 2021 and hit a new high with the FCI in January 2022. Thus, while the recent consolidation may seem troubling, the medium-term fundamentals supporting the greenback remain robust. Furthermore, tighter financial conditions are often a function of rising real interest rates. As mentioned, the USD Index bottomed with the FCI and surged to new highs with the FCI. As a result, the fundamentals support a stronger, not weaker USD Index. As evidence, the U.S. 10-Year real yield, the FCI, and the USD Index have traveled similar paths since January 2020. Please see below: To explain, the green line above tracks the USD Index since January 2020, while the red line above tracks the U.S. 10-Year real yield. While the latter didn’t bottom in January 2021 like the USD Index and the FCI (though it was close), all three surged in late 2021 and hit new highs in 2022. Moreover, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury nominal and real yields hit new 2022 highs on Feb. 4.  In addition, if you compare the two charts, you can see that all three metrics spiked higher when the coronavirus crisis struck in March 2020. As such, the trio often follows in each other’s footsteps. Furthermore, with the Fed likely to raise interest rates at its March monetary policy meeting, this realization supports a higher U.S. 10-Year real yield, and a higher FCI. As a result, the fundamentals underpinning the USD Index remain robust, and short-term sentiment is likely to be responsible for the recent weakness.  Likewise, as the Omicron variant slows U.S. economic activity, the ‘bad news is good news’ camp has renewed hopes for a dovish Fed. However, the latest strain is unlikely to affect the Fed’s reaction function. A case in point: after ADP’s private payrolls declined by 301,000 in January (data released on Feb. 2), concern spread across Wall Street. However, after U.S. nonfarm payrolls (government data) came in at 467,000 versus 150,000 expected on Feb. 4, the U.S. labor market remains extremely healthy.  Please see below: Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) On top of that, the BLS revealed that “the over-the-month employment change for November and December 2021 combined is 709,000 higher than previously reported, while the over-the-month employment change for June and July 2021 combined is 807,000 lower. Overall, the 2021 over-the-year change is 217,000 higher than previously reported.”  Thus, the U.S. added more than 700,000 combined jobs in November and December than previously reported, and the net gain in 2021 was more than 200,000. Please see below: Source: BLS As for wage inflation, the BLS also revealed: “In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 23 cents to $31.63. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 5.7 percent.” As a reminder, while investors speculate on the prospect of a hawkish ECB, the latest release out of Europe shows that wage inflation is much weaker than in the U.S. To explain, I wrote on Feb. 1: Eurozone hourly labor costs rose by 2.5% YoY on Dec. 16 (the latest release). Moreover, the report revealed that “the costs of wages & salaries per hour worked increased by 2.3%, while the non-wage component rose by 3.0% in the third quarter of 2021, compared with the same quarter of the previous year.”  As a result, non-wage labor costs – like insurance, healthcare, unemployment premiums, etc. – did the bulk of the heavy lifting. In contrast, wage and salary inflation are nowhere near the ECB’s danger zone. Please see below: And why is wage inflation so critical? Well, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Jan. 25: Source: ECB As a result, when the ECB’s Chief Economist tells you that wage inflation needs to hit 3% YoY to be “consistent” with the ECB’s 2% overall annual inflation target, a wage print of 2.3% YoY is far from troublesome. Thus, while euro bulls hope that the ECB will mirror the Fed and perform a hawkish 180, the data suggests otherwise.  In addition, while U.S. nonfarm payrolls materially outperformed on Feb. 4, I noted on Feb. 2 that there are now 4.606 million more job openings in the U.S. than citizens unemployed. Please see below: To explain, the green line above subtracts the number of unemployed U.S. citizens from the number of U.S. job openings. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the epic collapse has completely reversed and the green line is now at an all-time high. Thus, with more jobs available than people looking for work, the economic environment supports normalization by the Fed. Thus, if we piece the puzzle together, the U.S. labor market remains healthy and U.S. inflation is materially outperforming the Eurozone. As a result, the Fed should stay ahead of the ECB, and the hawkish outperformance supports a weaker EUR/USD and a stronger USD Index. Moreover, the dynamic also supports a higher FCI and a higher U.S. 10-Year real yield. As we’ve seen since January 2021, these fundamental outcomes are extremely unkind to the PMs. Finally, while the Omicron variant has depressed economic sentiment, I noted previously that the disruptions should be short-lived. For example, with Americans’ anxiety about COVID-19 decelerating, renewed economic strength should keep the pressure on the Fed. Please see below: To explain, the light brown line above tracks the net percentage of Americans concerned about COVID-19, while the dark brown line above tracks the change in flight search trends on Kayak. In a nutshell: the more concern over COVID-19 (a high light brown line), the more Americans hunker down and avoid travel (a low dark brown line). However, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the light brown line has rolled over and the dark brown line has materially risen. Moreover, with the trend poised to persist as the warmer weather arrives, increased mobility should uplift sentiment, support economic growth, and keep the Fed’s rate hike cycle on schedule. The bottom line? The USD Index’s fundamentals remain extremely healthy, and while short-term sentiment has been unkind, rising real yields and a hawkish Fed should remain supportive over the medium term. Moreover, with the PMs often moving inversely to the U.S. dollar, more downside should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks over the next few months. In conclusion, the PMs rallied on Feb. 4, despite the spike in U.S. Treasury yields. However, with so much volatility confronting the general stock market recently, sentiment has pulled the PMs in many directions. However, the important point is that the medium-term thesis remains intact: the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields should seek higher ground, and the realization is profoundly bearish for the precious metals sector. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

XAUUSD breaks resistance Gold continues to recover as the US dollar treads water. The previous fall below the daily support at 1785 had put the bulls on the defensive. The RSI’s oversold signal attracted some buying interest and prompted sellers to cover, driving up the price. The rebound has since gained traction after the metal rallied above the support-turned-resistance at 1817. In fact, the bullish breakout may raise momentum and open the door to the recent peak at 1850. On the downside, 1795 is a major support to keep buyers committed. NZDUSD remains under pressure The New Zealand dollar edges lower amid cautious market sentiment at the start of the week. The pair previously bounced off September 2020’s low around 0.6530. However, 0.6700 on the 20-day moving average so far has proven to be a tough hurdle. A drop below the fresh support (0.6630) indicates that the directional bias remains bearish. And sellers would be eager to fade another rebound. 0.6590 is the closest support. A break below 0.6530 could trigger a new round of sell-off towards 0.6400. UK 100 awaits breakout The FTSE 100 rallies supported by solid performance in the commodity sector. The recent rebound hit resistance near the January peak at 7640. Narrowing consolidation and higher highs suggest increased buying pressure. A bullish breakout would flush sellers out and attract momentum traders, firing up volatility in the process. This would be a strong bullish continuation signal. 7460 is a fresh support if the market remains indecisive. Its breach could extend the correction back to 7250.

Tightening monetary conditions in developed countries are not hurting gold so far, and investors' switch from buying risky stocks generates demand for the safe-haven. The daily charts also clearly show gold being repurchased in downturns. Since late last year, impulsive drawbacks on hawkish Fed comments are pushing the price down, but this momentum is not turning into a trend. Buyer support comes from higher and higher levels, although these purchases are measured and tempered, typical for long-term buyers. Such buyers could be central banks, which could diversify away from the dollar and the euro. But there could also be funds that want to stay away from bonds falling in price (on rising yields) at a time of steep rate rises. We can see the increasingly higher lows from August last year on the monthly candlestick charts for gold. So far, high inflation rates and market caution have not allowed a sustained upward trend in the price. However, the presence of solid buyers could revive buying very soon. An important reason for this could be developments in the Eurozone. Rising market interest rates are hitting the region's debt-laden periphery countries twice as hard. Investors may be worried about a repeat of the sovereign debt crisis of 2009-2011. Back then, investors used gold as a protective asset, losing confidence in the debt of almost half of the eurozone countries. It is too early to say that a repeat of the debt crisis is imminent, but early signs of a jump in Greek and Italian bond yields are forming a support for gold. If this trend turns into a problem, active buyers of safe havens promise to become many times more numerous

S&P 500 bulls missed the opportunity, but credit markets didn‘t turn down. Yesterday‘s pause is indicative of more chop ahead – the risk-on rally can‘t be declared yet as having run out of steam, no matter the crypto reversal of today. Bonds are in the driver‘s seat, and the dollar is also cautious – unless these move profoundly either way, the yesterday described S&P 500 reprieve can still play out even if: (…) The bottom isn‘t in, but I‘m looking for a little reprieve next. The degree to which bonds were sold off vs. stocks, hints that we would have lower to go still, ultimately bottoming around late Feb, perhaps even early Mar. Increasingly more Fed hikes are being priced in, and Friday‘s good non-farm payrolls figure is reinforcing these expectations. As for the immediate plan for Monday‘s session, I think the 4460s would hold on any retest, should we get there at all. The bulls have a very short-term advantage, then as mentioned above, selling would resume, and around May or June we could get the answer as to whether we‘ve been just consolidating or topping out. The 4,460s are still holding while commodities look to be consolidating today. As the dollar is up somewhat, bonds would have to face opening headwinds – the effect upon tech would be telling. I‘m still looking for downswing rejection in stocks while precious metals would hold up better than commodities today. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook As stated yesterday, S&P 500 bulls aren‘t yet winning, but have a good chance to suck in those who believe the tech bottom is in – tech bears would get another opportunity in the not too distant future. Credit Markets HYG gave up the opening strength, and the bulls are likely to get under pressure soon – it‘s that yesterday‘s session lacked volume, thus interest of the buyers. The clock is ticking. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals keep refusing to make lower lows – that‘s the most important aspect of their tempered ascent. And price gains would accelerate later in 2022, which would come on the Fed‘s abrupt U-turn. Crude Oil Now, crude oil bulls did pause, but the dip isn‘t likely to reach too far – I still wouldn‘t count on pullback towards $88 or lower really – oil stocks would have to turn decidedly down first. Copper Copper is getting cautious, and would probably decline should the commodities pause continue – no matter what other base metals would do at the same time. Still, that‘s internal strength in the waiting, similarly to the precious metals strength. Bitcoin and Ethereum The crypto break higher ran out of steam, warning of a rickety ride ahead – not just in cryptos. Things can still get volatile. Summary S&P 500 bulls haven‘t lost the opportunity to force higher prices, but need to repel the upcoming intraday flush that can come today, and possibly even continue tomorrow. Yes, instead of seizing upon the chance, bonds have merely paused, creating a perfect environment for whipsawish trading today – I‘m still expecting Friday‘s lows to hold on a closing basis, but I‘m not ruling out a fake breakdown first. The very short-term outlook is simply choppy until the bond market upswing kicks in in earnest. And that would provide more fuel to precious metals and commodities while pressuring the dollar – seems though we would have to wait for a while to see that happen. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  The latest employment report strongly supports the Fed’s hawkish narrative. Surprisingly, gold has shown remarkable resilience against it so far. What a surprise! The US labor market added 467,000 jobs last month. As the chart below shows, the number is below December’s figure (+510,000) but much above market expectations – MarketWatch’s analysts forecasted only 150,000 added jobs. Thus, the report reinforces the optimistic view of the US economy’s strength, especially given that the surprisingly good nonfarm payrolls came despite the disruption to consumer-facing businesses from the spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus. The unemployment rate increased slightly from 3.9% in December to 4% in January, as the chart above shows. However, it was accompanied by a rise in both the labor force participation rate (from 61.9% to 62.2%) and the employment-population ratio (from 59.5% to 59.7%). Last but not least, average hourly earnings have jumped 5.7% over the last 12 months, as you can see in the next chart. It indicates that wage inflation has intensified recently, despite the surge in COVID-19 cases that was expected by some analysts to dent demand for workers. Hence, the January employment report will cement the hawkish case for the Fed. Rising wages will add to the argument for decisive hiking of interest rates, while the surprisingly strong payrolls will strengthen the Fed’s confidence in the US economy.   Implications for Gold What does the latest employment report imply for the gold market? The unexpectedly high payrolls should be negative for the yellow metal. However, while gold prices initially plunged below $1,800, they rebounded quickly, returning above its key level, as the chart below shows. Gold’s resilience in the face of a strong jobs report is noteworthy and quite encouraging. After all, the report strengthened the US dollar and boosted market expectations of a 50-basis point hike in the federal funds rate in March (from 2.6% one month ago to more than 14% now). Such a big move is unlikely, but the point is that financial conditions are tightening without waiting for the Fed’s actual actions. In the past, gold disliked strong economic reports and rising bond yields and showed a negative correlation with nonfarm payrolls, but not this time. More generally, although long-term fundamentals have turned more bearish in recent months, gold has remained stuck at $1,800. However, last week, two factors could have supported gold prices. The first was rising volatility in the equity market. The S&P 500 Index dropped almost 500 points, or 10%, in January, as the chart below shows. Although it has recovered somewhat, it still remains substantially below the top, with the tech sector experiencing weakness. On Thursday, the shares of Meta, Facebook’s parent company, plunged more than 20%. The second potentially bullish driver was last Thursday’s meeting of the ECB’s Governing Council. The central bank of the Eurozone was more hawkish than expected. Christine Lagarde acknowledged inflationary risks and said that she had become more concerned with the recent surge in inflation. According to initial estimates, the annual inflation rate in the euro area amounted to 5.1% in January 2022, the highest since the common currency was created. Lagarde also backed off her previous guidance that the interest rate hike was “very unlikely” in 2022. The ECB’s pivot – the central bank opening the door for the first rate increase since 2011 – boosted the euro against the greenback. The bottom line is that gold has made itself comfortable around $1,800 and simply doesn’t want – or is not ready – to go away in either direction, at least not yet. The battle between bulls and bears is still on. I’m afraid that, given the relatively aggressive monetary and financial tightening, the sellers will win this clash and gold will drop before the bulls can regain control over the market. However, recent gold’s resilience indicates that there is an underlying bid in the markets and bulls are not giving up. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Stacking bitcoins winning edges It is not the number of edges that get it low risk. And again, there are no hidden magic formulas. What works well is covering multiple aspects in stacking one’s edges: Market behavior Time of day Oscillators for ranging markets Indicators for trending markets Supply/demand zone identification (VWAP=volume weighted average price, in addition to support and resistance lines) Inter-market relationships Leading/lagging (relative strength within a sector or group) Candlestick pattern Volume Time frame relationships Action-reaction principle News Day of the week Swing leg count MAE (=maximum adverse excursion) Mathematical/statistical edges like standard deviation Your list might look vastly different but should include tools that cover the principal variants of market behavior (ranging, trending, slow/fast price action, liquidity, time, volume, transactions). Investopedia is a good research tool for finding definitions and explanations of the various available technical tools. BTC in US-Dollar, daily chart, how we stack odds in our favor: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 8th, 2022. Our previous chart book release described fundamental reasons for being bullish on bitcoin, which we stack in a similar principled fashion. We pointed out that we were looking for low-risk entry points to build up a long-term position for bitcoin. Such a low-risk opportunity arose on February 3rd, last week. We had the following edges stacked at the time of entry (green arrow): General price strength (directional yellow line channel) Previous day retracement (action-reaction principle) Small range Doji for tight stop and possible reversal indication VWAP (blue histogram to the right of the chart) indicating a supply zone Scheduled ECB news item out of the way Time of week Time of day (we entered near the close of the daily candle) Extended from the mean (blue line, standard deviation) Commodity Channel Index (CCI). A momentum-based oscillator useful in congested sideways channels, gave the prior day to execution indication of a long entry (yellow arrow) We posted our entry in real-time in our free Telegram channel. Within a 24-hour period, we could profit on half of the position size for a gain of 8.73%. We also posted this first profit-taking target in real-time in our free Telegram channel. Our quad exit strategy provides income-producing revenues like this but, even more, eliminates risk. Consequently, this approach supports trading the remaining position with psychological ease for the intended long-term holding period. Hence, even starting out as a a short-term trade, the last 25% of the initial position can become a long-term invest. BTC in US-Dollar, weekly chart, well-positioned: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 8th, 2022. With previous entries at recent lows established in much the same manner, we are now exposed to the market with seven remaining rest positions at zero risk. Such an approach can afford to negate whether this will be the long-term turning point or not. Profits have been made. Should our plan pan out, then the remaining exposed capital will lead to further profits. Otherwise, this remaining position size will stop out at breakeven entry level. The weekly chart shows now a confirmed situation of a weekly bar takeout. For most traders this is an entry signal while we were already well established. We are playing with the market’s money and profits banked. With this time frame alignment more money is expected to join the long side. The chart also illustrates the favorable risk/reward-ratio to the right of the chart.   BTC in US-Dollar, monthly chart, early bird: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of February 8th, 2022. A glance at the monthly chart shows we are positioned very early and aggressively for this time frame. Nevertheless, as soon as prices might reach US$48,000, we will find ourselves here as well time frame aligned with a bar takeout. Green numbers show our entry prices for January with two entries and February with five entries. Should prices move upwards in our favor, we would take again partial profits near the red horizontal trend line slightly below all-time highs. The remaining positions stays in place for a possible breakout to all-time new highs. Too late if you are not positioned yet? No! This continuous flow of adding low-risk entry trades followed by partial profit-taking allows participating at all stages of market swings. Stacking bitcoins winning edges: In short, you want to have a clear instruction sheet on what to do in whatever market condition bitcoin throws at you. With a set of tools broadly covering all these variants and measuring them, you will be able to act without hesitancy. Then you can hope for the best, since you planned for the worst. Risk control is the core of each advanced trading approach! We aim to keep it simple, like a card counter, which supports executing high probability winning trades. At the same time, the crowd is confronted by surprising news or fast-moving markets. They use reactionary, inappropriate execution, which in turn creates losing trades. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 6th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Sandbox price action has broken above $4.72 but fades in early trading today. SAND price action is at the intersection of a red descending trend line and the historical pivot level. Expect current favourable tailwinds to boost confidence for bulls leading to a break to the upside and new all-time highs. Sandbox (SAND) price action broke above $4.72 yesterday and saw bulls trying to test $5.0. But the intersection of the descending trend line and a pivot level proved to be too heavy and pushed price action back below the $4.72 historical level. Expect bulls to keep supporting as more tailwinds coming from geopolitics support the case for more upside potential towards $6.0. Sandbox price targets $6 for this week Sandbox price looked set to finally end the downtrend since November 25. The intersection of the red descending trend line dictating the downtrend and the historical $4.72 pivotal historic level from November 23, proved too big of a hurdle for price action to close above yesterday. Instead, bulls decided to take profit with price fading as we speak. SAND does not need to one-directionally tank further but will probably see bulls keeping price close to the pivotal $4.72 level. With several favorable tailwinds, such as positive news from talks between Putin and Macron, investors look to be back on the scene and putting some money on the table to invest in risk assets like cryptocurrencies. This will filter through in the demand side volume and will provide the needed impetus to punch through $4.72 again and close above, putting an end to the downtrend and targeting $6.0 this week. SAND/USD daily chart The resistance double whammy at the aforementioned intersection could prove too big of a temptation for profit-taking, and result in the Relative Strength Index dipping further, below 50, and translate into further downside for the altcoin towards $4.28, making it even harder to try for a daily close above $4.72. That could lead to yet more liquidation and see a return to a base level around $3.50.

On Tuesday, Bitcoin showed a growing momentum at the beginning of the day and reached five-week highs above $45,000. After a short-term rise above this level, a corrective decline began in the middle of the day. The benchmark cryptocurrency was losing more than $2,000 despite the rise in stock indices. There was a sharp rebound towards the end of the day and closed the day almost unchanged as a result. Recovery in institutional demand for stocks late in the day on Tuesday helped Bitcoin stay above the 50-day moving average as well. Continued buying on the decline to this level will keep the technical picture bullish as upside momentum develops to $49-50K. A sharp dip lower today or tomorrow will raise the issue of a false break and bring the sellers back into play, heading for $37-38K. It became known that at the end of last week, the Canadian exchange fund Purpose Bitcoin ETF bought 1.75 thousand BTC in two days, which could lead to a sharp increase in prices. In addition, Valkyrie Investments has received approval from the SEC to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on the shares of companies that receive at least 50% of their profits through mining. At the same time, the US authorities confiscated bitcoins stolen from the Bitfinex crypto exchange in 2016 for $3.6 billion and detained those involved in the hack. The Russian Federation government approved the concept of the Ministry of Finance for the regulation of cryptocurrencies: a joint bill should be ready by February 18. Overall, Bitcoin gained 0.3% on Tuesday, ending the day around $44,200. Ethereum was down 1.3%, while the other leading altcoins in the top ten were mixed from a 5.7% decline (Binance Coin) to an increase of 5.4% (XRP). The total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 1.2% over the day to $2.09 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index increased by 0.8% over the day, to 40%.  

  The S&P 500 index remains close to the 4,500 level following last week’s retreat. Was this just a downward correction? The broad stock market index lost 0.37% on Monday, as it continued to fluctuate within a short-term consolidation. The broad stock market’s gauge retraced some of its recent rally, as it fell to the local low of 4,451.50 on Friday. The market found a short-term bottom after reversing from last Wednesday’s local high of 4,595.31. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.2% lower. We will likely see more consolidation along the 4,500 level. The nearest important resistance level remains at 4,540, market by the recent local highs. The resistance level is also at 4,600. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,400-4,450. The S&P 500 continues to trade below the November-January consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq 100 Remains Relatively Weaker The technology Nasdaq 100 index followed a similar path last week, as it retraced some of the rally. It remains relatively weaker than the broad stock market. The support level is at 13,800-14,000, and the resistance level is at 15,000-15,200. Futures Contract – Short-Term Consolidation Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. It broke above the short-term downward trend line a week ago before rallying up to around the 4,600 level. It’s trading along the 4,500 level after backing from the Wednesday’s high of 4,586. The market remains close to the resistance level of its previous local lows, but there have been no confirmed negative signals so far. So in our opinion, no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index trades within a short-term consolidation following the decline from last week’s Wednesday’s local high. The market will likely extend its consolidation, as investors will be waiting for the Thursday’s Consumer price index release. The quarterly earnings season is mostly over now, and there is still an uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index will likely trade within a consolidation ahead of the important Thursday’s consumer inflation number release. In our opinion, no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

EURUSD hits resistance The euro fell back after ECB President Lagarde tried to cool rate hike expectations. The rally came under pressure at the January peak of 1.1480. The RSI’s overextension at this daily resistance prompted momentum buyers to cash in. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling may drive the exchange rate lower. Short-term sentiment remains upbeat though unless the single currency drops below the origin of its bullish push at 1.1270. A recovery above 1.1480 could pave the way to last October’s high at 1.1690. GBPUSD consolidates gains The sterling turns higher as traders price in an increasingly hawkish Bank of England. A break above 1.3520 forced sellers to cover some of their positions. However, the pound’s rally came to a halt in the supply zone around 1.3620. The RSI’s overbought situation and bearish divergence suggest softness in the underlying momentum. The pair found bids on the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (1.3490), which sits in the aforementioned supply area. A new rally may propel the pair to the daily resistance at 1.3750. US 30 bounces higher The Dow Jones 30 inches higher supported by better-than-expected earnings. The index steadied after successive breaks above 34800 and 35450. Nonetheless, the recent recovery slowed down on the 30-day moving average, a sign of a lingering cautious mood. 34500 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. A bearish breakout could extend the correction to 33800. On the upside, a rally above 35700 could attract momentum traders and initiate a bullish reversal to 36500.

NIO stock gets a strong rating from latest Barclays research. NIO remains bearish and is down 25% year to date. NIO and other Chinese EV names remain in growth mode as the latest delivery data showed. NIO stock remains mired as it ended Monday virtually flat. The stock is down over 40% from three months ago as Chinese names see international investors flee on regulatory concerns. NIO Stock News It has been a turbulent time for holders of Chinese tech stocks. Alibaba's ANT Group spin-off set things off. Then the DIDI delisting not long after its IPO added to woes. Then a host of regulatory crackdowns was the final straw for international investors who bailed out of the names en masse. This is despite the EV names in particular remaining on track from a growth perspective as all have posted strong delivery data. While January deliveries slowed from December, the yearly growth rates still are impressive. January is traditionally the slowest month of the year in China though due to the lunar new year. NIO for example delivered 7.9% fewer vehicles in January versus December. On a yearly basis, January deliveries were 33.6% higher. This was replicated across many other Chinese EV names. Now Barclays has picked up the theme as it issues a bullish note this morning. "We believe that the rapid adoption of EVs around the world and booming EV sales have presented China’s EV makers a rare opportunity to not only take a sizable market share of the domestic auto market – the largest in the world with about 25-30% global share by units sold per annum – but also build a dominant position on the world stage." Barclays put a $34 price target on the shares. This does highlight the potential growth potential of Chinese tech stocks and the EV space in particular. We question whether investors will reenter, however, having been let down previously. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice... Ok, let's not have another George W. Bush moment! The point is a valid one. It will likely take more than analyst upgrades to tempt investors back to the space. Goldman, the king of investment banks, has previously been strongly bullish on NIO and to no avail. It will take a series of strong earnings and relative calm in terms of regulatory concerns to eventually tempt investors back. NIO Stock Forecast The recent spike lower did fill the gap from back in October 2020. The market just loves to fill gaps. We also note this spike lower created a shooting star candle, a possible reversal signal. There is already a bullish divergence from the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as shown. The area around $27.34 is the first resistance. Getting back above indicates the bearish trend may finally be slowing. That would then bring NIO into a range-bound zone from $27 to $32. Only breaking $33.80 from January 3 ends the downtrend. Support is at $14 from the strong volume profile. Look for an RSI breakout as that could signal more gains. The RSI has been shrinking in range and may test an upside breakout. NIO 1-day chart

Stock markets continue their shaky recovery. On Tuesday, intraday trading patterns in US equities point to a buying trend on declines. The S&P500 and Dow Jones indices rebounded from their 200-day simple moving average. Both indices were below those levels in the second half of January. Still, by the beginning of February, they managed to get back above them on the substantial buying activity of the retail investors. Yesterday's stock market dynamics slightly reduced the tension. Increased buying at the end of the session indicates a buying mood for professional market participants. There have been increasing reports from US investment banks that markets have already priced in a tight monetary policy scenario and will not press equity prices further. Moreover, BlackRock recently noted that markets had priced in overly hawkish expectations. The bond market also looks oversold, declining in previous weeks at the fastest pace since 2008. This is a good reason, at least for a technical rebound. In addition, buyers are supported by strong economic and wage growth, promising corporate earnings stability for the foreseeable future. The switch to a monetary tightening phase turns the market into a more frequent and deeper corrective pullback mode but does not trigger a bear market before a rate hike even begins. Strong fundamentals support a bullish technical picture, with a recovery from the strongest oversold S&P500 RSI and the ability to pop above the 200-day average. From this perspective, the January drawdown has cleared the way for growth, recharging buyers. On an equity level, we can see stabilisation and sharp upward moves in stocks that have been weak since June and shone in the pandemic before that: Peloton, Netflix, GameStop. In theory, this could be a dead cat bounce, but it reduces the selling pressure in blue-chip stocks such as Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google and straightens out the overall market sentiment.

Ripple apparently was base building!! We have shot higher to 7750 & the next target of 8500/8550 - as far as 9120 over night. Ethereum continues higher as far as the next target of 3200/3230. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis Bitcoin through 23.6% Fibonacci resistance at 41400/500 which I consider to be a buy signal targeting 45400/500 with a high for the day exactly here. If we continue higher this week look for 46600/800. We should struggle to beat this level here but probably only a pause - shorts may be too risky. A break higher targets 49000/500. Good support at 42600/400 today. However if we continue lower look for a buying opportunity at 40800/500. Longs need stops below 40300. Ripple beat strong resistance at 7350/7450 for a nice medium term buy signal. Buy & hold!! Targets up to 8500/8550 have been hit as we look for a test of strong resistance at 9480/9580. A break above 9650 is the next buy signal. Strong support at 8600/8500 failed however but expect strong support at 8300/8200 - longs need stops below 8100. Support at 7350/7250. Longs need stops below 7150. Ethereum shot higher to all targets as far as 3200/3230. If we continue higher look for 3400/3420 then 3510/30. Strong support at 3000/2970 then 2840/00. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

Remember key 12 month trend line resistance at 9310/9330. If you think WTI Crude has run too far then a retest of this level could be your sell opportunity but you will need wide stops, I would suggest above 9390. A break higher is a buy signal as long as the move is sustained of course. Another buying opportunity at 8890/60. Stop below 8830. A break lower targets 8750/30, perhaps as far as 8610/8590. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

GBPUSD is gaining 0.35% on Wednesday, surpassing 1.3585, not far from the month's highs of 1.3620. The British pound is closely correlated with equity market dynamics, and the latest upward momentum in major global indices supports GBP buyers. Also noteworthy is that the Bank of England switched to the next gear in its monetary policy tightening as last week's rate hike was 25 b. p. rather than 50 b. p. by only a slight margin. The euro is also losing ground against the pound after a sharp spike at the ECB meeting. In our view, the EURGBP surge was caused by a technical bounce on touching the 6-year low area. Meanwhile, the Bank of England's stance suggests a much more decisive rate hike, which should provide a carry trade inflow into the pound and further push up the British currency. With the continued upward trajectory of equity indices, a renewal of the 6-year highs of the pound to the euro and a test of the 1.3750 area should come in just a matter of weeks.

While Oil prices have seen significant movements in recent times, with Brent gaining over 20% from the start of 2022 and reaching the highest level since october 2014, we are beginning to see a slight pullback despite an unexpected inventory drop shown in yesterday's API report. Talks surrounding the Iran nuclear deal, which could bring around 2 mpd supply into the markets, have helped prices retreat while easing of tensions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine situation have also boosted sentiment. On the other hand, while these are positive signs the situation remains uncertain as any further escalation could see supply significantly disrupted and as the Iran deal remains slightly out of reach for the time being. OPEC appears to be nearing production capacity and optimistic forecasts point to a rise in demand throughout the year so unless some progress is made among other producers, those supply concerns could translate into record prices and subsequent impacts on a variety of sectors. Today’s EIA inventory report could prove to be important for short term price action as a confirmation of the API report could potentially increase concerns regarding short term price stability.   Stock markets continue to recover as investors await earning reports from Uber and Disney European stock markets are extending the upward move after a positive Asian session and following a higher close of US indices despite some general uncertainty seen across markets. Stock prices have been increasingly volatile on the back of recent geopolitical tensions and some surprising earnings reports released during this earning season. Fiscal and monetary policy has also greatly impacted investor sentiment but many appear to be reassured for the time being as we see a continuation of the recent rebound across global markets while investors await today’s key earnings announcements from major companies like Uber technologies and Disney among others. While it remains to be seen whether these will manage to meet expectations, the situation remains quite fragile with many markets experiencing significant volatility and as several central bankers are also due to speak today.   Barratt Developments strong results boost investor confidence Barratt Developments report exceeded expectations and pointed to a stronger recovery from covid levels with over 18,000 home constructions and strong revenue figures. The company expects this positive performance to continue throughout 2022 and despite some uncertainty surrounding the global economic environment, the general market situation appears to favor such optimistic performance. It remains to be seen if the company will manage to successfully implement its strategy or if it will encounter issues driven by record inflation and potential supply chain disruptions.

The first quarter of 2022 is underway and it is time to highlight some of the top companies that have been analyzed by our QuantStock Fundamental system so far. Topping the list are three well-known companies, one in technology and two from the financial services side of the market with all three companies paying out dividends to investors. Our QuantStock Fundamental system is a proprietary algorithm that examines each company’s fundamental metrics, trends and overall strength to pinpoint quality companies. We use it as a stock market ideas generator and to update our stock watchlist every quarter. However, be aware the QuantStock Fundamental system does not take into consideration the stock price or technical price trends so one must compare each idea with their current stock prices. Many studies are consistently showing overvalued markets and that always has to be taken into consideration with any stock market idea. As with all investment ideas, past performance does not guarantee future results. Be sure to join our email newsletter for our system updates. Here we go with our 3 of our Top Stocks we added to our Watchlist from January 1st through January 31st of 2022: Seagate Technology Information Technology, Medium Cap, 13.8 P/E, 2.50+ Percent Dividend, Our Grade = B Seagate Technology (STX) has ascended our grading threshold to be included on the watchlist for the second consecutive quarter. STX is an information technology company headquartered in Ireland that specializes in technology hardware, storage devices and other cloud storage services. Highlighting their fundamental case over the past two quarters has been a rising earning per share (beating expectations three quarters in a row) as well as a rising dividend that is currently above 2.50 percent. On a technical basis, the STX price has been volatile since the beginning of the year like most other tech stocks. STX hit a low share price under $92.00 on January 25th but has rallied since to over $110.00 per share at time of writing. Raymond James Financial Inc Financials, Medium Cap, 15.84 P/E, 1.15+ Percent Dividend, Our Grade = B- Raymond James Financial INC (RJF) is next up and a well known financial company that has also made our watchlist for the second straight quarter. RJF, a medium-cap company ($28+ billion) is headquartered in Florida and provides financial services to investors and corporations throughout the US, Canada and Europe. RJF currently trades at an approximate 15.5 PE-Ratio and has had higher earnings per share for three straight quarters, beating earnings per share expectations in all three quarters as well. The dividend has continued on a growth path with the current quarterly dividend at approximately 1.15 percent at time of writing. Technically, the RJF share price has been surging higher recently and currently trading around the $115.00 price point at time of writing. In the short term, the stock is on the higher side of its trading range as evidenced by the ZScore of the 50-day moving average (2.38 standard deviations above the 50-day moving average currently). Blackstone Inc Financials, Large Cap, 15.8 P/E, 3.80+ Percent Dividend, Our Grade = C Blackstone Inc (BX) was added to our watchlist for the first time in January and is a financial large cap company ($154+ billion) located in New York, New York. BX provides global asset management services to investors, pension funds and institutional clients across a broad range of markets including real estate, bonds, equities and various credits. Blackstone’s stock is currently trading at a 15.8 Price/Earnings Ratio and the company has had earnings per share growth each of the past three quarters, beating expectations each time. The dividend has been on an upward trajectory with the current yield surpassing the 3.80 percent threshold at current prices. Technically, the BX share price has been on the rebound recently after dropping in late January to a low of $101.65. The stock has bounced back strong to a current price of above $130.00 per share and trading right above a support level. Article by InvestMacro – Be sure to join our stock market newsletter to get our updates and to see more top companies we add to our stock watch list. Disclaimer: I currently own STX, RJF and BX stock at this time in ETFs and/or Closed-End Funds. I do not own direct shares of these companies at time of writing. This article and our system grading are for informational and educational purposes only, not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold shares of any particular stock, ETF, company or security. All investors are always strongly advised to conduct their own independent research into any stock, ETF, closed-end fund or any other financial instrument before making an investment decision. Investmacro.com authors are not registered investment advisors, do not make stock market recommendations, do not offer legal advice, do not offer tax advice and cannot be held liable for any losses occurred. All data is thought to be accurate as of time of writing but can and will change over time due to changes in the underlying securities price and data.   

Bitcoin price slows down its ascent after flipping the $42,748 hurdle into a foothold. Ethereum price contemplates a retracement after facing the 50-day SMA at $3,208. Ripple price looks ready for consolidation after a 51% ascent over the past four days. Bitcoin price rally is slowing, allowing bulls to take a breather before the next leg-up. While some might argue the short-term outlook looks bearish – due to the flash crash in January, the bigger picture reveals cryptocurrency (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies) markets still have the potential to go higher. A Wells Fargo report published in February reveals that cryptocurrency adoption is growing exponentially and, in many cases, resembles the growth curve of internet adoption. The American financial corporation even goes on to state the crypto sector could soon exit the initial phases of adoption and enter “an inflection point of hyper-adoption.” Wells Fargo Report: Internet usage history vs crypto users Bitcoin price at a decisive moment Bitcoin price rallied 25% in the last four days and set up a swing high at $45,539.(https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-begins-correction-after-45k-rejection-where-can-btc-price-bounce-next-202202081914) The rally rippled out, triggering copycat moves in other altcoins and the cryptocurrency market in general. Yet BTC failed to produce a daily candlestick close above the breaker’s upper limit at $44,387. So, as a result, the bearish outlook is still in play. Investors should be prepared for anything between a minor retracement and a full-blow bear trap. An optimistic scenario will likely see BTC retest the weekly support level at $39,481 before triggering the next leg-up. A more pessimistic scenario, however, would speculate that Bitcoin price could crash to $34,752. A breakdown of this support floor could be the key to triggering a crash to $30,000 or lower. BTC/USD 1-day chart While things look on the fence for Bitcoin price, (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin) a daily candlestick close above $44,387 will invalidate the bearish thesis. A bullish regime, however, will only kick-start if BTC produces a daily candlestick (https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/chart/candlestick-patterns) close above $52,000.   Ethereum price takes a breather Ethereum (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/ethereum) price seems to be undergoing a pullback (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-holds-above-3k-but-network-data-suggests-bulls-may-get-trapped-202202090153) as it faces off with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,208 while still hovering inside a bearish breaker, extending from $2,789 to $3,167. A rejection here could lead to a retracement to $2,812, where buyers have a chance at restarting the uptrend. Assuming the bullish momentum picks up, there is a good chance ETH could slice through the $3,208 and make a run for the $3,413 hurdle. The local top for Ethereum price could be capped around the convergence of the 50-day and 100-day SMAs at roughly $3,600. ETH/USD 1-day chart On the other hand, if Ethereum price fails to stay above $2,812, it will indicate that buyers are taking a backseat. This development will invalidate the bullish scenario and trigger a crash to the weekly support level at $2,324. Ethereum price could liquidate bulls if ETH falls below $3,000 Ripple price to reestablish directional bias Ripple price broke out of its ten-day consolidation (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/xrp-price-could-easily-return-to-1-under-one-condition-202202081437) and rallied 51% in just four days. This run-up sliced through the $0.740 and $0.817 hurdles, flipping them into support levels. While this climb was impressive, XRP price is likely to retrace as investors begin to book profits. The resulting selling pressure could push Ripple price down to the $0.740 support level where buyers can band together for a comeback. In some cases, the U-turn might not arrive until a retest of the $0.595 to $0.632 demand zone. Regardless, investors can expect XRP price to run up to $1 and collect the liquidity resting above it. XRP/USD 1-day chart On the contrary, if the Ripple price fails to stay above the $0.595 to $0.632 demand zone, it will reveal the lack of bullish momentum and hint that a further descent is likely. In this case, XRP price will sweep below the $0.518 support level to collect the sell-side liquidity resting beneath. XRP price could easily return to $1 under one condition

Peloton shares continue to be the most discussed stock on mainstream and social media. Two straight days of 20%-plus gains for PTON stock. The new CEO gets just the start he would have wanted. It is not exactly reassuring to your confidence when you step down as CEO of a company and the stock immediately explodes higher. Investors clearly had enough of Peloton's (PTON) former CEO John Foley. New man Barry McCarthy hits the ground running despite some mixed commentary from the analyst community this morning. Peloton Stock News Peloton reported earnings on Tuesday. The stock had already surged on news (https://www.fxstreet.com/news) of a new CEO and continued reports that the company may be in the sights of big tech eyeing a potential takeover for the beleaguered fitness company. Revenue came in at $1.13 billion below the $1.15 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) came in below estimates at $-1.39 versus the $-1.20 estimate. The outlook was also weak with Peloton seeing full-year 2022 revenue at $3.8 billion, while analysts had forecast $4 billion. Following the results, Stifel maintained its buy rating on PTON with a $45 price target. Macquarie maintained its outperform rating with a lowered $60 price target, while Barclays also lowered its price target to $60 as well. Bank of America said, "Our estimates that assumed price cuts would drive new demand were too optimistic." BofA has a $42 price target for the stock. Peloton shares had already been strongly ahead in Tuesday's premarket before the earnings release. This was due to the new CEO and a cost-cutting plan including laying off 2,800 employees. The list of potential buyers for Peloton continued to grow as speculation mounted. Potential acquirers include virtually every major fitness company, numerous big tech firms, Berkshire Hathaway and SoftBank. We do question whether in particular big tech would get much benefit out of the acquisition. Fitness has been a big part of the wearable market, and Peloton's subscribers are its value, but do Apple, Amazon and Google really struggle that much for users? Sports companies mentioned include Nike (NKE) and Adidas (ADDYY). These may make more sense as the subscribers could generate more value, add-ons and ancillary sales. Peloton Stock Forecast The weekly chart (https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/chart) gives us all the information we need going back to the launch in September 2019. Peloton (PTON) rallied all the way up to $171 this time last year before steadily falling back. The stock has now totally retraced all of the pandemic gains and then some. In that respect, investors may be tempted to buy into the name as subscribers in 2019 totaled just over 500,000, whereas currently Peloton has 2.77 million subscribers. From the weekly chart, we can see the power of volume gaps we often talk about. Peloton broke sharply once it entered the light volume zone from $81 to $37. Now it has stabilized at a high volume zone and the point of control. This does set a potential base for the stock. (https://www.fxstreet.com/markets/equities) Peloton (PTON) chart, weekly The daily chart below shows we have had a bullish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) since the last earnings despite the share price continuing to slide. $23 remains support with first resistance at $46. This latest move is likely to calm down unless more takeover talk surfaces. If the price move does calm, then holding above $30 is key to keeping the bottom in place. Peloton (PTON) chart, daily  

EURUSD reversed perfectly from strong resistance at the January high & 200 week moving average at 1.1480/1.1500 to hit strong support at 1.1410/00 with a low for the again yesterday. USDCAD loving very strong support at 1.2665/55 as we hold all last week & this week so far. Update daily at 06:30 GMT Today's Analysis. EURUSD longs at strong support at 1.1410/00 are working again today but need stops below 1.1385. Next target & support at 1.1350/40. Longs need stops below 1.1330. Our longs target 1.1435 before a retest of strong resistance at the January high & 200 week moving average at 1.1480/1.1500. Shorts need stops above 1.1515. A break higher this week is a buy signal of course, initially targeting 1.1555/60, perhaps as far as 1.1580/90. USDCAD retests strong support at 1.2670/60. Longs here re-target 1.2710/20. If we continue higher look for a retest of 1.2780/90. Further gains this week test the January high at 1.2810/15. If we continue higher look for 1.2840/50. Support at 1.2670/60. A break below 1.2650 however targets 1.2630/20, perhaps as far as 1.2690/80. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

S&P 500 bulls took the opportunity yesterday amid mild credit market support. Looks like more fireworks are to come – the risk-on turn is merely starting. Not only financials, but also tech welcomed higher yields – it seems that the positive seasonality of 2nd to 3rd week of Feb, is working. We have quite a way to go still on the upside – 4,600s are waiting, and it remains to be seen how far in the 4,600 – 4,700 range stocks make it. Consumer discretionaries are outperforming staples, and energy isn‘t cratering – the brief commodities reprieve (don‘t look though at copper, which seems preparing a nice upside move, or crude oil‘s shallow dip) supports the stock market advance. Precious metals are rising strongly – both thanks to inflation expectations not budging much, and the expected copper upturn. Not even cryptos are plunging. The open S&P 500 and oil profits can keep on rising. Looks like the markets are slowly positioning for yet another hot inflation number tomorrow. How many times lately have there been expectations that high CPI data would sink stocks – but these rallied instead? Thursday is likely to turn out similarly – I‘m not looking for the stock market rally to top out tomorrow. The Mar FOMC is still quite a few weeks away, 50bp rate hike fears notwithstanding. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls have made the opening step, and look ready to extend gains. Even volume has returned a little, but importantly, sellers were nowhere to be seen – and that‘ll likely be the case today as well. Credit Markets HYG couldn‘t keep the opening gains, but junk bonds still did better than their quality counterparts. Anyway, the HYG weakness looks likely to be reversed (to some degree) today. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are firmly on another upleg – and miners strength is confirming that. When inflation turns out more stubborn than generally appreciated, and bond yields don‘t catch up nearly enough, precious metals would like that. Love that. Crude Oil Now, crude oil bulls did pause, but the dip isn‘t likely to reach too far – I still wouldn‘t count on pullback towards $88 or lower really – this correction is more likely to be in time than in price. Copper Copper is clearly refusing to decline – its upswing looks to be a question of shortening time only. Likewise the commodities reprieve would be reversed shortly. The red metal‘s price action coupled with precious metals one, is very nice to see – for the fruits it would bring. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos aren‘t weakening – they look to be pausing in the upswing only. How long would they need to consolidate before continuing the attempt to go higher? Summary S&P 500 bulls have a firm grip on higher prices – we‘re looking at another green day today. And if it‘s accompanied by the turning bonds, then all the better. Tech has risen, oil is a little down while sectoral breadth improves – the conditions are in place for S&P 500 to overcome 4,600. The risk-on rally hasn‘t yet run out of time, and the Mar FOMC is still far away. Upgraded rate hike prospects are being increasingly absorbed by the markets, and stocks don‘t look spooked at the moment. The bears‘ time would still come though, but let‘s first enjoy the gains our timely positioning is bringing. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

On Wednesday, the cryptocurrency market decided to push and grow amid the rise of US stock indices. The S&P 500 gained 1.5%, while the high-tech Nasdaq gained 2.1%. All this helped Bitcoin shrug off the profit-taking sentiment at the start of the day and close in a slight plus. On the intraday chart, you can see purchases at the close of the American session, which clearly demonstrate the interest of the institutionalists in this region. The benchmark cryptocurrency continues to be in demand after strengthening above the 50-day moving average, which confirms the breaking of the downtrend of the previous three months. The RSI indicator on the daily charts is now at 61, still far from the overbought zone, confirming that the market is still far from overheating.   For the third week in a row, institutional participants have been investing in crypto funds, according to CoinShare. Why did they start doing this before the January meeting of the Fed, when no one believed in the BTC reversal. Crypto-whales also bought bitcoin on the fall. According to Santiment, they have purchased 220,000 BTC in the last seven weeks. On Thursday, US inflation data will be released, which will shed light on how quickly the Fed will raise rates. If inflation accelerates, all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, may suffer significantly. Overall, Bitcoin added 0.5% on Wednesday, ending the day around $44,500. Ethereum rose 3.8%, other leading altcoins from the top ten also showed growing dynamics from 0.2% (Terra) to 5.2% ( XRP). The total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 2.2% over the day, to $2.14 trillion. Altcoins showed outpacing growth, which led to a decrease in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.4%, to 39.6%.

US inflation data for January is in the spotlight in the markets today. The annual growth rate is expected to break 40-year records, reaching 7.3% compared with 7.0% in December. Higher oil prices in recent weeks will reinforce the general price index. But more important in this case may be the core CPI, where prices are expected to rise by 0.5% m/m and 5.9% y/y. Investors and traders expect this report to determine the Fed's next move in mid-March. Rising inflation above expectations and new signs that the inflation trend is taking root could reinforce dollar purchases as markets will immediately put into the price a higher chance of a 50 point rate hike in March and set up a determination for further hikes. And that promises to be bad news for the markets. Signs that inflation is close to its peak and on a downward path promises to be great news for stock markets and shift the balance towards dollar selling. Interest in equities increases when investors see signs of a sustained turnaround in inflation as they stop fearing the Fed's sharply hawkish stance on suppressing price growth.

Inflation has been a key topic in the markets in recent times with several readings reaching the highest levels in decades and central banks trying to find a balance between adjusting their monetary and fiscal policy while stimulating the post pandemic economic recovery. One of the consequences of these policies has been a staggering increase in prices of most goods, which has become a serious issue of concern for central bankers as well as regular consumers who have seen their everyday expenses increase noticeably. Today’s CPI and Core CPI readings from the US could be highly impactful as they may dictate whether the Federal reserve will decide to take action in the upcoming meeting since as of now, five rate hikes are expected and several other central banks have already taken measures to contrast general inflation. Clearly there is a fine balance between sustaining the economy and exacerbating widespread inflation which may ultimately hinder stability across markets and today’s report could play a crucial role in that process of analysis. The US Dollar may react favorably to a higher than expected reading as it could almost seal the deal on an upcoming rate hike, while stocks could be impacted by prospects of less liquidity.   Watches of Switzerland report paints optimistic picture Watches of Switzerland's report showed a continued growth of its revenue and return on capital with significant gain in market share as the company plans to continue investing for growth and to enhance its leading position in the UK and as it attempts to become a clear leader in the US. The easing of restrictions and improving economic conditions have certainly helped but with potential supply issues and record inflation levels, we could be seeing a slowdown in the short-mid term if these issues are not approached carefully. Astrazeneca posts strong results but remains cautious Astrazeneca's results showed a total revenue increase of 41% to $37,417m including COVID-19 vaccine revenues. The company managed to achieve 14 positive Phase 3 readouts across nine medicines in 2021, and 22 regulatory approvals and authorisations in major markets which further boosted its market dominance in the field. Furthermore, the company expects CER of a high-teens percentage increase in total revenue and a mid-to-high twenties percentage increase in Core EPS for 2022. Despite this, while it will certainly benefit from a variety of innovations it provides, it may see a decline in its profits as revenue from vaccines potentially declines throughout the mid to long term.  

WTI crude oil has lost around 3% since the start of the week, bouncing back to $88.4 from $91.2 at the beginning of the week. The observed pullback looks like a technical correction to remove local overheating. This correction comes against a relatively bullish background. Yesterday's data marked a new drop in inventories, both commercial and strategic reserves. The Biden administration has said it may accelerate sales from reserves. Perhaps these comments were a formal excuse for profit-taking in the market. However, the start of these sales came with a two-month rally. The government's intention to sell off reserves may even have contributed to the rise in prices. The desire to bring prices down is hurting US production ramp-up plans. Aggressive support for alternative energy has made the hydrocarbon industry unattractive to banks. As a result, we are seeing a much slower production recovery than in the recovery periods of the last decade. The number of rigs in operation is rising methodically, but it seems that new wells are only marginally offsetting spent ones. Also, OPEC has repeatedly suggested that the industry's severe underinvestment during the pandemic makes it impossible to ramp up production quickly now. Despite a favourable price environment, the cartel has not picked up quotas in recent months. It is also worth mentioning that countries are not imposing new travel restrictions but are loosening them more and more, supporting energy demand. Also, commodity prices are supported by political pressure on Russia, which threatens gas supplies to Europe and further fuels price increases. Locally, oil remains vulnerable to a corrective pullback after a more than two-month rally with potential targets at $84.5 for WTI - a 23.6% pullback from the rally and the October peak area. A deeper retracement scenario suggests a pullback to $80.3. For Brent, the near-term target is $86-87, with a deeper retracement to $83.

AUDUSD breaks higher The Australian dollar climbs as traders wager on a hawkish shift from the Reserve Bank of Australia. On the daily chart, a break above the 30-day moving average suggests improved sentiment in the short term. The pair extended its gains after it broke the supply area around 0.7170. As sellers scramble to cover their bets, driving up bids, the rally is heading to the next resistance at 0.7210. The RSI’s overbought situation may cause a temporary pullback with 0.7110 as the first support. EURGBP seeks support The euro consolidates gains amid mixed messages from the ECB. The pair found support at February 2020’s low at 0.8290, and a bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests a potential turnaround. A break above the daily resistance at 0.8405 has put the single currency back on track. An overbought RSI led momentum traders to take profit. The current pullback is testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (0.8405) which used to be a resistance. 0.8475 is the main hurdle for the reversal to gain traction. USOIL tests support WTI crude bounces higher after the EIA reported a sharp drop in US inventories. Price action is looking to consolidate its gains above the psychological level of 90.00. Sentiment remains upbeat though the bulls need to take a breather after the latest vertical ascent. 88.00 on the 20-day moving average is the immediate support. An oversold RSI may attract buying interest. A deeper retracement would test 85.00. A recovery above 92.30 could trigger momentum buying once again and resume the rally towards 95.00.

S&P 500 upswing continued amid increasing credit market support. Risk-on, finally – and commodities are on fire again, with precious metals awaiting their time in the spotlight. That‘s the big picture view as markets keep digesting the recently upgraded hawkish talk of the Fed. Or more precisely in my view, they‘re sniffing out the inevitability of the Fed having to make a U-turn later this year. Meanwhile, any temporary hint of lower Treasury yields – the reprieve is arriving – is eagerly embraced by the tech while value is disregarding that. As a result, S&P 500 market breadth is improving, and as stated yesterday, the positive seasonality of 2nd to 3rd week of Feb, is working. Today‘s CPI data would show inflation isn‘t relenting – even White House warned about hot year on year figure coming. Coupled with the tightening job market, the question is now what remains of the budding S&P 500 upswing and bond market reprieve. It‘s becoming increasingly clear that the Fed would have to really move, and that inflation is biting and not exactly sinking input costs. That‘s where we have the cost-push inflation I talked relentlessly over many quarters last year, and wage pressures joining at the hip. It‘s really about letting copper and oil profits keep growing now, while taking off S&P 500 long ones off the table. Done, and PMs are to join next. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls had a great day, and need a solid close today against the poor inflation data. This isn‘t though likely to happen unless bonds hold up well during the regular session. Mission impossible, almost. Credit Markets HYG extended gains yesterday, and would need to defend them today. What remains of the risk-on posture, is key to determining the stock market rally longevity vs. waning power. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are firmly on another upleg – I‘m not looking for setbacks during the opening selling pressure to last. The direction is firmly up. Crude Oil Crude oil is still pausing, but at the same time the bulls are readying a response. I‘m looking for continued trading in the recent range, followed by a break higher. Copper Copper is finally on the move, and the high volume speaks plenty about the buying pressure. I‘m looking for dips to be bought – I‘m not expecting a stampede of the bears taking advantage of a „shorting opportunity“. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos aren‘t plunging, but the test of the bullish resolve is arriving today – let‘s see what kind of reversal it turns into. The volume looks solid, so I count on more than a daily setback as a minimum. Summary S&P 500 meets unpleasantly high inflation, which is forcing the hand of the Fed. Stocks are going to have a hard time recovering, and the bullish window of opportunity may be drastically shortened. Good to have taken profits off the table automatically through the trailing stop-loss – commodities would be more resilient. That‘s where real gains are – in real assets, as inflation is returning to the spotlight. Rightfully so as the Fed is desperately behind the curve, and precious metals need to fully get that. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

El Salvador plans to issue its first Bitcoin bond between March 15 and March 20, 2022. The corporate adoption of Bitcoin went parabolic since the addition of BTC to MicroStrategy’s balance sheet. Amidst rising adoption from institutions, the Salvadoran Finance minister expects the offering to be oversubscribed by an additional $500 million. Analysts at FSInsight predict Bitcoin price could hit $222,000 before the end of 2022. El Salvador has announced the launch of its Bitcoin bond next month. Salvadorans are riding the wave of institutional Bitcoin adoption, fueling a bullish outlook among investors. Bitcoin price rally fueled by El Salvador’s bond issuance and institutional investment El Salvador plans on issuing its first Bitcoin bond in March 2022. The Salvadoran Finance Minister, Alejandro Zelaya told a local news show that the government plans to issue the Bitcoin bond between March 15 and March 20. Zelaya was quoted as saying: If we really want to build this country, we have to invest in it like this. The Salvadoran Bitcoin Bond will pay investors 6.5% per annum. $500 million raised from the bond issuance will be used for Bitcoin mining and developing renewable energy from volcanoes, another $500 million for buying more Bitcoin. El Salvador’s government plans to issue $1 billion for the first bond and expects it to be oversubscribed by an additional $500 million. The minimum purchase is $100, and investors can directly buy without involving a broker. The Bitcoin bond would be issued on Blockstream’s Liquid Network sidechain. Salvador’s move to launch a Bitcoin bond is timed in accordance with the rising corporate adoption of the asset. Firms are keen on adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet; recent Wells Fargo and JP Morgan reports have affirmed a bullish outlook on BTC price. Analysts at FSInsights recently evaluated the Bitcoin price trend and set a target of $222,000 for the end of 2022. FXStreet analysts believe that Bitcoin price could stumble on track to $50,000.

  Lagarde opened the door to an interest rate hike, which gave the European Central Bank a hawkish demeanor. Does it also imply more bullish gold? The ECB has awoken from its ultra-dovish lethargy. In December 2021, the central bank of the Eurozone announced that its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program would end in March 2022. Although this won’t also mean the end of quantitative easing as the ECB continues to buy assets under the APP program, the central bank will be scaling down the pace of purchases this year. Christine Lagarde, the ECB’s President, admitted it during her press conference held last week. She said: “We will stop the Pandemic Emergency Programme net asset purchases in March and then we will look at the net asset purchases under the APP.” She also left the door open for the interest rates to be raised. Of course, Lagarde did not directly signal the rate hikes. Instead, she pointed out the upside risk of inflation and acknowledged that the macroeconomic conditions have changed: We are going to use all instruments, all optionalities in order to respond to the situation – but the situation has indeed changed. You will have noticed that in the monetary policy statement that I just read, we do refer to the upside risk to inflation in our projection. So the situation having changed, we need to continue to monitor it very carefully. We need to assess the situation on the basis of the data, and then we will have to take a judgement. What’s more, Lagarde didn’t repeat her December phrase that raising interest rates in 2022 is “very unlikely”. When asked about that, she replied: as I said, I don’t make pledges without conditionalities and I did make those statements at our last press conference on the basis of the assessment, on the basis of the data that we had. It was, as all pledges of that nature, conditional. So what I am saying here now is that come March, when we have additional data, when we’ve been able to integrate in our analytical work the numbers that we have received in the last few days, we will be in a position to make a thorough assessment again on the basis of data. I cannot prejudge what that will be, but we are only a few weeks away from the closing time at which we provide the analytical work, prepare the projections for the Governing Council, and then come with some recommendations and make our decisions. It sounds very innocent, but it’s worth remembering that Lagarde is probably the most dovish central banker in the world (let’s exclude Turkish central bankers who cut interest rates amid high inflation, but they are under political pressure from Erdogan). After all, global monetary policy is tightening. For example, last week, the Bank of England hiked its main policy rate by 25 basis points and started quantitative tightening. Even the Fed will probably end quantitative easing and start raising the federal funds rate in March. In such a company, the ECB seems to be a reckless laggard. Hence, even very shy comments mean something in the case of this central bank. The markets were so impressed that they started to price in 50 basis points of rate hikes this year, probably in an exaggerated reaction.   Implications for Gold What does the latest ECB monetary policy meeting mean for the gold market? Well, maybe it wasn’t an outright revolution, but the ECB is slowly reducing its massive monetary stimulus. Although the euro area does not face the inflationary pressure of the same kind as the US, with inflation that soared to 5% in December and to 5.1% in January (according to the initial estimate), the ECB simply has no choice. As the chart below shows, inflation in the Eurozone is the highest in the whole history of euro. Additionally, in the last quarter of 2021, the GDP of the euro area finally reached its pre-pandemic level, two quarters later than in the case of the US. Europe is back in the game. The economic recovery strengthens the hawkish camp within the ECB. All of this is fundamentally bullish for gold prices. To be clear, don’t expect that Christine Lagarde will turn into Paul Volcker and hike interest rates in a rush. Given the structural problems of the euro area, the ECB will lag behind the Fed and remain relatively more dovish. However, German bond yields have recently risen, and there is still room for further increases. If the market interest rates go up more in Europe than across the pond, which is likely given the financial tightening that has already occurred in the US, the spread between American and German interest rates could narrow further (see the chart below). The narrowing divergence between monetary policies and interest rates in the US and in the Eurozone should strengthen the euro against the greenback – and it should be supportive of gold. As the chart above shows, when the spread was widening in 2012-2018, gold was in the bear market. The yellow metal started its rally at the end of 2018, just around the peak of the spread. On the other hand, if the divergence intensifies, gold will suffer. Given that Powell is expected to hike rates as soon as March, while Lagarde may only start thinking about the tightening cycle, we may have to wait a while for the spread to peak. One thing is certain: it can get hot in March! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

  The market was up, but mining stocks chose to reverse. Meanwhile, gold sent a clear signal to investors. So, when everyone buys, what happens? The gold mining stocks and silver mining stocks have reversed, even though gold didn’t. The top for the former is likely in. Most developments regarding the precious metals and their immediate surroundings were a continuation of what we had seen in the previous days, but one thing was different. That one thing is particularly informative. It has trading implications, too. Without further ado, let’s jump into mining stocks. Gold miners fell. Even though they declined by just $0.06, it was profound. The miners were following gold higher during the early part of yesterday’s (Feb. 9) session, but they lost strength close to the middle thereof and were back down before the closing bell. If the gold price reversed and then declined during the day, that would have been normal. However, gold stayed up. It’s fairer to compare GDX to GLD than to compare GDX to gold continuous futures contracts, as the former have the same closing hours, so let’s take a look at what GLD did yesterday. There was no reversal. GLD simply stopped at its declining medium-term resistance line. Also, the general stock market was up yesterday. Consequently, gold mining stocks had no good reason to decline. In fact, they “should have” rallied. They didn’t – they reversed instead. This tells us that the buying power has either dried up or is drying up. When everyone who wanted to get into the market is already in it, the price can do only one thing (regardless of bullish factors) – fall. Those who are already in can then sell. Monitoring the markets for this kind of cross-sector performance is one of the more important gold trading tips. Look, I’m not saying that declines now are “guaranteed”. There are no guarantees in the markets. There might be buyers that haven’t considered mining stocks that would now enter the market, but history tells us that this is unlikely. Instead, declines are very likely to follow. Let’s focus on the GLD ETF chart one more time. As I wrote earlier, it approached its declining medium-term resistance line. Any small breakout here is likely to be invalidated just like what we saw previously in November 2021 and January 2022. This time, however, the volume is low, so gold might not have enough strength for a breakout, and it could decline right away. Junior mining stocks provide us with a perfect confirmation of the bearish narrative. I emphasized before that juniors hadn’t moved above their 50-day moving average, and that they stayed below their rising blue resistance line. Consequently – I wrote – the downtrend in them remained clearly intact. Yesterday’s reversal served as a perfect confirmation of the above. The previous breakdowns were verified in one of the most classic ways. The silver price has been quite strong recently, which is also something that we see close to the local tops. The reversals in mining stocks, the situation in gold, AND the situation in the USD Index together paint a very bearish picture for the precious metals market in the short and medium term. By “the situation in the USD Index”, I’m referring to the fact that it’s after its early-month reversal and right above its rising medium-term support line that was not successfully broken. Since the USD Index remains above its rising medium-term support line, the trend remains up. Therefore, higher – not lower – USD Index values are to be expected. All in all, it seems that gold, silver, and mining stocks are going to decline in the coming weeks (quite possibly days) and that we won’t have to wait too long for the next big decline to start. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The US inflation report noted higher-than-expected price rises, triggering a boost to the dollar and a pullback in US major index futures. The price index for January rose 0.6% to an annual rate of 7.5%. The report dashed hopes that the monthly price increase was slowing, as analysts expected a slowdown to 0.4% after December's 0.5% jump. The core index added another 0.6% last month, accelerating to 6.0% y/y, the highest level since August 1982. Thus far, there are few signs of a slowdown in inflation which requires the Fed to take active steps to tighten monetary policy. As might be expected, the stronger-than-expected rise in prices caused a sell-off in US equity futures, with the Nasdaq100 losing 2% and the S&P500 1.3%. The dollar index immediately gained 0.4%. For the dollar, the current inflation report could be the starting point for a new upward momentum as it virtually unleashes the Fed for a high-profile first move with a key rate hike of 50 points in five weeks.

US inflation have exceeded expectations on all measures. Alongside a jump in jobs, America's economy is on fire and the Fed is set to act. The dollar has further room to rise, at least until Fed officials open their mouths. A 6% handle on annual price rises – another milestone has been reached, this time on core inflation. Data for the first month of 2022 is hot out of the oven – and it is steaming hot. While prices of used cars and shelter seemed to have slowed down, there are few silver linings to find. On a monthly basis, both headline and Core CPI is up 0.6%, while overall annual price rises is at 7.5%, above expectations – and even implying an 8% handle next month. It is essential to note that this is no longer limited to energy or supply-chain issues, but rather broad price rises. It is accompanied by a job market that is on fire, as jobless claims for the week ending On February 4 show – a drop from 238,000 to 223,000. That comes on top of January's jobs report. Only six days ago, the Nonfarm Payrolls report came out with an increase of 467,000 positions, accompanied by upward revisions. Wages also jumped according to that NFP, adding to price pressures. Both figures are critical to the Federal Reserve, which has a dual mandate of full employment and price stability. The data more than cement a March rate hike and perhaps at a scale of 0.50% instead of 0.25%, which is the standard measure. Moreover, the Fed could raise interest rates four times by July – contrary to its projections of hiking only three times throughout the whole of 2022. That means more pressure on the dollar. The greenback has benefited from a knee-jerk reaction to the figures, but it has even more room to rise as analysts pore over the data. What could halt the greenback? Only Fed officials can cool things down, by playing down the option of raising rates by 50bp in March. That is what happened last week when hawks such as Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and others calmed markets. On a relative basis, some currencies could do better than others, if central bankers talk about action to mitigate inflation. The European Central Bank's hawkish twist helped the euro recover against the dollar. After these figures, ECB hawks face an uphill battle. Overall, King Dollar reigns supreme.

On Thursday, the Russian ruble rolled back to 74.50, and on Friday morning, it rewrote these local lows to recover to the levels from which it started the year, winning back the failure in geopolitics. However, the strengthening of the ruble took place not so much on political de-escalation but on the actions of the Bank of Russia. And today, we are waiting for new actions that can both strengthen the positions of the Russian currency and return the ruble to the path of decline. We are inclined to believe that the CBR will remain on the side of the ruble. When making a decision on the key rate, the CBR will weigh the actual and expected inflation rates both in Russia and in the world, and there is little reason to relax. The latest estimates of inflation in Russia have shown that the annual rate of price growth has accelerated again, requiring a further tightening of the screws. Under these conditions, the Bank of Russia is likely to raise the rate by 100 points - the second time in a row. Previously, the CBR maintained parity between the rate and the annual inflation rate, but now it makes sense to step up pressure to suppress inflation. At the same time, we should be prepared to hear comments that such a sharp increase may not be required in the future. Based on inflationary trends, the key rate could reach its 10% ceiling for this tightening cycle before the end of March and then hold at this level for another year. Another factor is the volatility of the ruble and geopolitics. In January, the CBR decided to suspend purchases of foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance in order to reduce pressure on the ruble in the Russian financial market. The biggest risk for the ruble is that the CBR will announce today that it is returning to buying foreign currency. Such a move could hit the ruble hard. However, we believe that it would be logical for the CBR to extend the pause in purchases at least until the end of the exercises in Belarus, that is, until the end of February. The strengthening of the ruble, as a side effect of expensive oil and the suspension of foreign currency purchases, can additionally work to slow down import inflation and consumer inflation in general. If we are right, then the ruble may remain in an uptrend until the end of February, rushing to the 71 area by the end of the month. However, it is still difficult to expect a steady growth of the Russian currency to the area below 70.

Gold Spot beat resistance at 1835 very briefly before reversing half way to strong 1.5 month trend line resistance at 1845/50. Outlook is more negative now & we could head slowly towards the lower end of the recent range around 1805/00. Silver broke higher to the next target of 2365/70 with a high for the day. Outlook is more negative for silver now in the 1 year bear trend. WTI Crude March longs at our buying opportunity at 8890/60 worked perfectly again for the third day with a low for the day & eventually reaching my 9150 target. Update daily at 06:30 GMT Today's Analysis. Gold hit first support at 1824/22 for profit taking on any shorts this morning. Holding below 1826/28 targets 1819/16. A low for the day morning is possible here but a break below 1814 is likely to target 1811/10 then 1805/01. A break above 1830 however can target 1835, perhaps as far as 1840. Remember strong 1.5 month trend line resistance at 1845/50. Shorts need stops above 1855. Silver has support at 2310/00 so a break below 2300 is likely to target 22650/60. We should pause here but a bounce may not happen in the bear trend. If we continue lower look for 2240/30. Holding support at 2310/00 targets 2330/33. Unlikely but a break above 2340 can retest 2365/70. WTI Crude March longs at our buying opportunity at 8890/60 (if they work again) target 9030/50 for a little profit taking but further gains are possible eventually to 9150 today in the longer term bull trend. Remember key 12 month trend line resistance at 9310/9330. If you think WTI Crude has run too far then a retest of this level could be your sell opportunity but you will need wide stops, I would suggest above 9390. A break higher is a buy signal as long as the move is sustained of course. Another buying opportunity at 8890/60. Stop below 8830. A break lower targets 8750/30, perhaps as far as 8610/8590. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

The UK economy added 1% in the fourth quarter last year and is 6.5% higher than a year ago. The annual growth rate is declining as the low base effect fades away. In December, industrial production added 0.3% and moved into growth territory compared to the same month a year earlier. These are signs that the Bank of England's interest rate hike cycle has met the UK economy in pretty good shape. The British pound has been gaining support in the last two days on the declines in the area of 1.35 GBPUSD despite the impressive upward thrust of the dollar. This dynamic is explained by the fact that the Bank of England has as much potential to tighten policy. Locally the pound looks like a decent competitor to the dollar. The markets are pricing in that the Bank of England may raise the rate by 50 points at one of the following meetings, keeping the policy tightening gap with the Fed. And this is good news for the pound, which could also help reduce inflationary pressures.

XRP and Solana have both lost around 6% over the past 24 hours, falling amid a general reduction in risk traction in the markets and the two largest cryptocurrencies. Despite the apparent depth of the pullback, XRP remains 32% above levels from a week earlier, and the current retreat is well within Fibonacci technical correction from the rally of the past eight days. A drop below $0.78 would signal a deeper correction and open a quick path to $0.75. If all of February's gains are entirely nullified in the coming week and quotes pull back to below $0.60, it would be safe to speak of a new depressed period with a long-term downside potential of 50% to $0.3. The technical picture in Solana and Polkadot is worse, as a shadow hangs over them. The rise from January 28th to February 7th looked like a technical rebound after being oversold since November. But this growth momentum is quickly fading. We can say for this coin that without positivity for the overall market, it will continue to lose ground faster than BTC and ETH.

Cryptocurrencies were under the pressure of strong data on inflation in the United States on Thursday, which has updated 40-year highs. Such values can force the Fed to raise interest rates faster, which is negative for all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin showed high volatility during trading, updating early January highs above $45,800 under the influence of a weakening dollar. However, towards the end of the day, the first cryptocurrency began to decline along with stock indices: the S&P500 lost 1.8%, the high-tech Nasdaq fell 2.1%. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed for the second day is exactly in the middle of the scale, at around 50 (neutral). However, now the stock markets are having an increased impact on the dynamics of Bitcoin and Ethereum, in which the prospects for monetary policy are being reassessed. The corresponding index is now in the fear territory, near the 37 mark. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is being bought back on dips towards the 50-day average, which keeps the picture bullish. However, in the event of a prolonged sale of shares, the first cryptocurrency will not hold and risks pulling the entire market with it. Fitch has downgraded El Salvador due to its acceptance of bitcoin as legal tender. In March, the country will issue the first $1 billion bitcoin bonds. There is interesting news from America as well. The largest investment company BlackRock is going to launch a cryptocurrency trading service. Bank Of America refuses to recognize Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, pointing to the strengthening of the correlation between BTC and the S&P500 stock index. And at JPMorgan, they currently consider the “fair” quote for bitcoin to be $38,000. In Russia, the government has completed the drafting of a bill on the circulation of digital currencies. The Ministry of Finance proposed establishing a transitional period for individuals before introducing a tax on income from crypto assets. Overall, Bitcoin lost 1.3% on Thursday, ending the day around $44,100. Ethereum fell 4.3%, while other top ten altcoins declined from 0.5% (Avalanche) to 6.2% (Solana and Polkadot). The total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 2.8% over the day, to $2.08 trillion. Altcoins showed a leading decline, which led to an increase in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.5%, to 40.1%

USDJPY to test major resistance The US dollar surged after consumer prices hit a 40-year high. Higher lows and then a close above the recent peak at 115.65 is an indication of strong bullish pressure. This breakout has propelled the greenback to January’s high at 116.35. Its breach could trigger a runaway rally and resume the uptrend in the medium term. An overbought RSI on the hourly chart may briefly restrain the bullish fever. 115.30 is the closest support and the bulls may see a pullback as an opportunity to stake in. XAGUSD seeks support Bullions fell back after US Treasury yields soared over hot US inflation data. The psychological level of 22.00 has proven to be a solid demand area. A break above 23.00 has forced sellers to cover, paving the way for an upward extension. 24.00 from a previous rectangle consolidation is the next resistance. A bullish breakout would bring silver back to this year’s high at 24.70. On the downside, the resistance-turned-support at 22.80 could see buying interest in case of a retracement. US 100 hits resistance The Nasdaq 100 struggles as record-high US inflation exacerbates rate hike concerns. The previous rebound has eased selling pressure but hit resistance under 15350. The subsequent pullback bounced off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (14400), which suggests buyers’ strong interest in keeping the index afloat. Sentiment is still a tad cautious unless the bulls clear the said hurdle. Then the psychological level of 16000 could be within reach. 14500 is a key support in case of an extended consolidation.

  Stocks retraced their Wednesday’s advance yesterday. Was this a downward reversal, or just a correction within an uptrend? The S&P 500 index lost 1.81% on Thursday, Feb. 10 after gaining 1.5% on Wednesday, as investors reacted to higher-than-expected inflation number release. Investors fear that the rising inflation will lead to a faster tightening by the Fed. On Wednesday the index got close to its previous Wednesday’s local high of 4,595.31, and yesterday it fell to the 4,500 level (the daily low was at 4,484.31). This morning the market will likely open 0.2% higher after an overnight decline. We may see some more short-term uncertainty. For now, it looks like a flat correction or a consolidation within an uptrend from the Jan. 24 local low of 4,222.62. The nearest important resistance level remains at 4,550-4,600. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,450-4,500. The S&P 500 index is close to the previous Friday’s daily closing price, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Trades Along the 4,500 Level Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. It broke above the short-term downward trend line in late January before rallying up to around the 4,600 level. Since then, it has been fluctuating along the 4,500 level. The market remains at the resistance level of its previous local lows, but there have been no confirmed negative signals so far. So in our opinion, no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index will likely extend its almost two-week long consolidation after rallying from the mentioned late January local low. So far, it looks like a consolidation within an uptrend. The quarterly earnings season is mostly over now, and there is still an uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index will likely open slightly higher this morning and we may see more fluctuations along the 4,500 level. In our opinion, no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 upswing was rejected – the intraday comeback didn‘t succeed. Risk-off posture won the day, and the dust is settling. Day 4-5 of the rally‘s window of opportunity that I talked on Monday, is proving as a milestone. Hot CPI data has increased the bets on Mar 50bp rate hike to a virtual certainty, and asset prices didn‘t like that. Not just stocks across the board, but commodities likewise (to a modest degree only) gave up intraday gains, turning a little red. Cryptos too ended down – it had been a good decision to cash in solid open long profits in S&P 500, oil and copper. Fresh portfolio highs reached over this 12+ months period (details on my homepage): What‘s the game plan for today? As the dollar closed flat while yields rose, I‘m not ruling out a reflexive intraday rebound attempt – after all, the bears should rule in the 2nd half of Feb most clearly. As time passes, the rips would be sold into unless bonds and tech can catch a solid bid. With focus on inflation, that‘s unlikely. Medium-term S&P 500 bias continues being short while commodity dips are to be cautiously bought. Crude oil looks to need to spend a bit more time around $90 while copper defending the low $4.50 is equally important. While silver didn‘t rise by nearly as much as the red metal did, it is down approximately as much in today‘s premarket – the white metal would recover on a less headline heavy day. Remember that PMs are trading sideways to up, with decreasing sensitivity to rising 10-year yield, and have done historically well when rate hikes finally start. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 momentum has sharply shifted to the downside, and today‘s recovery attempts are likely to be sold into. I‘m keeping a keen eye on bonds, tech and risk-on in general – not expecting miracles. Credit Markets HYG keeps showing the way, resolutely down as of yesterday. With rising yields not propelling even financials, the bears have returned a few days earlier than they could – in a show of strength. Gold, Silver and Miners Miners issued a warning to gold and silver – yesterday brought a classic short-term top sign. I‘m though not ascribing great significance to it, for it isnt‘a turning point. Gold would be relatively unmoved while silver recovers however deep setback it suffers today. Crude Oil Crude oil appears to need more time to base – while the upside is being rejected for now, the selling attempts aren‘t materializing at all. Higher volume adds to short-term indecision, but strong (long) hands are to win. Copper Copper is running into selling pressure, and looks in need of consolidation in order to overcome $4.60. The red metal remains true to its reputation for volatility. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are taking their time, and the bulls need to act. Given that volume isn‘t disappearing, the bears have a short-term advantage. Summary S&P 500 looks to be getting under pressure soon again, today. There is no support from bonds, unless these stage an intraday risk-on reversal. The momentum is with the sellers, and rips are likely to be sold as markets digest yet more hawkish Fed action slated for March. Digest and slated are the key words – the Fed‘s hand is being forced here. Commodities and precious metals are likely to do best in what‘s coming – the 5-10 day window of bullish S&P 500 price action, is slowly closing down. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  In line with bearish bets, miners have thrown a match. Gold, however, doesn’t want to leave the ring without a fight. How long will it stay high? While gold remains relatively firm despite stock market turbulence, rising real yields, and bearish technical indicators, even a confluence of headwinds hasn’t been able to knock the yellow metal off its lofty perch. However, mining stocks haven’t been so lucky. With my short position in the GDXJ ETF offering a great risk-reward proposition, the junior gold miners’ underperformance has played out exactly as I expected. Moreover, with major spikes in volume preceding predictable sell-offs (follow the vertical dashed lines below), I’ve warned on several occasions that the GDX ETF is prone to tipping its hand – we saw this volume spike in January, which was the 2022 top (as of today). In addition, with mining investors’ power drying up by the day, the medium-term looks equally unkind. Please see below: On Wednesday, gold miners fell. Even though they declined by just $0.06, it was profound. The miners were following gold higher during the early part of Wednesday’s (Feb. 9) session, but they lost strength close to the middle thereof and were back down before the closing bell. If the gold price reversed and then declined during the day, that would have been normal. However, gold stayed up. This tells us that the buying power has either dried up or is drying up. When everyone who wanted to get into the market is already in it, the price can do only one thing (regardless of bullish factors) – fall. Those who are already in can then sell. Monitoring the markets for this kind of cross-sector performance is one of the more important gold trading tips. Look, I’m not saying that declines now are “guaranteed”. There are no guarantees in the markets. There might be buyers that haven’t considered mining stocks that would now enter the market, but history tells us that this is unlikely. Instead, declines are very likely to follow. Yesterday’s big daily decline confirmed my above comments. Gold miners declined much more than gold did, and they did so at above-average volume. The latter indicates that “down” is the true direction in which the precious metals market is heading. To that point, the HUI Index provides clues from a longer-term perspective. When we analyze the weekly chart, it highlights investors’ anxiety. For example, after hitting an intraweek high of roughly 260, the HUI Index ended the Feb. 10 session at roughly 250 – just 3.99 up from last Friday – that’s an intraweek reversal. Furthermore, with the index still in a medium-term downtrend, shades of 2013 still profoundly bearish, and sharp declines often preceded by broad head and shoulders patterns (marked with green), there are several negatives confronting the HUI Index. As such, a sharp drawdown will likely materialize sooner rather than later. Please see below: Finally, the GDXJ ETF is the gift that keeps on giving. For example, with lower highs and lower lows being part of the junior miners’ roughly one-and-a-half-year journey, false breakouts have confused many investors. However, while I’ve been warning about the weakness for some time, more downside is likely on the horizon. To explain, I wrote on Feb. 10: I emphasized before that juniors hadn’t moved above their 50-day moving average, and that they stayed below their rising blue resistance line. Consequently – I wrote – the downtrend in them remained clearly intact. Yesterday’s reversal served as a perfect confirmation of the above. The previous breakdowns were verified in one of the most classic ways. The silver price has been quite strong recently, which is also something that we see close to the local tops. The reversals in mining stocks, the situation in gold, outperformance of silver, AND the situation in the USD Index (the medium-term support held) together paint a very bearish picture for the precious metals market in the short and medium term. All in all, if the weakness continues, I expect the GDXJ ETF to challenge the $32 to $34 range. However, please note that this is my expectation for a short-term bottom. While the GDXJ ETF may record a corrective upswing at this level, the downtrend should continue thereafter, and the junior miners should fall further over the medium term. In conclusion, gold showcased its steady hand throughout the recent volatility. However, mining stocks have cracked under the pressure. With the latter’s underperformance often a bearish omen for the former, the yellow metal’s mettle may be tested over the medium term. As such, while the long-term outlooks for gold, silver, and mining stocks remain profoundly bullish, a final climax will likely unfold before their secular uptrends continue. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 8th 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT energy data is the recent slide in the Heating Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor futures has fallen for three out of the past four weeks and for thirteen out of the past seventeen weeks. These decreases have brought the overall net standing for heating oil to just +6,455 contracts, the lowest level since late December. Heating oil contracts have been in positive bullish territory for sixty-seven straight weeks, dating back to October of 2020. The most recent high was a total of +39,137 contracts on October 12th of 2021 but contracts have been on a downtrend since then. The heating oil price, meanwhile, has been on a sharp uptrend (like most energy prices) so there is a divergence at the current moment between the speculators (typically trend followers) and the price direction. The markets with rising speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (4,921 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (2,430 contracts) while WTI Crude Oil (-5,521 contracts), Brent Crude Oil (-7,403 contracts), Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts) and Gasoline (-2,600 contracts) fell. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-08-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,170,681 46 363,383 18 -412,144 69 48,761 84 Gold 512,842 23 186,706 47 -211,434 53 24,728 34 Silver 147,379 14 19,299 42 -32,571 67 13,272 20 Copper 201,860 28 18,855 56 -25,523 42 6,668 64 Palladium 7,497 5 -1,230 14 1,035 83 195 56 Platinum 58,766 20 11,759 19 -16,638 85 4,879 30 Natural Gas 1,133,934 6 -115,089 44 85,151 58 29,938 55 Brent 208,578 46 -26,323 73 22,725 27 3,598 58 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 832,618 52 209,730 82 -176,080 24 -33,650 14 Corn 1,575,318 34 419,602 84 -382,874 17 -36,728 22 Coffee 273,102 39 66,867 97 -72,255 3 5,388 26 Sugar 931,602 25 79,090 53 -96,963 50 17,873 30 Wheat 385,172 26 -3,578 44 7,972 49 -4,394 81   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 363,383 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,521 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 368,904 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.1 35.1 4.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.4 54.1 2.6 – Net Position: 363,383 -412,144 48,761 – Gross Longs: 480,560 762,286 105,794 – Gross Shorts: 117,177 1,174,430 57,033 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 17.9 68.6 83.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.1 -13.6 19.9   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -26,323 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,920 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.6 47.8 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.2 36.9 2.7 – Net Position: -26,323 22,725 3,598 – Gross Longs: 38,825 99,625 9,166 – Gross Shorts: 65,148 76,900 5,568 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.6 27.5 57.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.2 9.0 6.4   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -115,089 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,921 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -120,010 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.2 41.5 5.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.4 33.9 2.5 – Net Position: -115,089 85,151 29,938 – Gross Longs: 240,829 470,065 57,837 – Gross Shorts: 355,918 384,914 27,899 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.0 57.7 54.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.4 -9.6 -1.7   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 62,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,600 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,352 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.0 49.5 6.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.8 68.3 3.7 – Net Position: 62,752 -72,595 9,843 – Gross Longs: 108,363 191,576 24,008 – Gross Shorts: 45,611 264,171 14,165 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.0 64.4 70.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.6 -9.3 22.4   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9 – Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979 – Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210 – Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -12,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,430 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,898 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 68.4 27.4 1.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 95.8 1.4 0.1 – Net Position: -12,468 11,845 623 – Gross Longs: 31,105 12,468 670 – Gross Shorts: 43,573 623 47 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 20.0 to 1 14.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.8 38.9 41.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.5 8.9 5.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 8th 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent uptrend in the Copper futures bets. The speculative net position in the Copper futures has risen for three out of the past four weeks and in five out of the past seven weeks. Copper bets had been in a very strong and rising bullish position throughout the second half of 2020 and maintained their bullishness in 2021 but to a lesser degree. The bullish bets started to falter recently in December and dropped to an eighty-one week low on December 21st at a bullish position of just +4,437 contracts. Since then, speculator’s Copper bets have started to trend higher and this week hold a position of +18,855 net contracts. The metals this week with higher speculator bets were Gold (14,564 contracts) and Copper (2,700 contracts) while the markets with lower speculator contracts were Silver (-2,819 contracts), Platinum (-2,822 contracts) and Palladium (-238 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-08-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,170,681 46 363,383 18 -412,144 69 48,761 84 Gold 512,842 23 186,706 47 -211,434 53 24,728 34 Silver 147,379 14 19,299 42 -32,571 67 13,272 20 Copper 201,860 28 18,855 56 -25,523 42 6,668 64 Palladium 7,497 5 -1,230 14 1,035 83 195 56 Platinum 58,766 20 11,759 19 -16,638 85 4,879 30 Natural Gas 1,133,934 6 -115,089 44 85,151 58 29,938 55 Brent 208,578 46 -26,323 73 22,725 27 3,598 58 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 832,618 52 209,730 82 -176,080 24 -33,650 14 Corn 1,575,318 34 419,602 84 -382,874 17 -36,728 22 Coffee 273,102 39 66,867 97 -72,255 3 5,388 26 Sugar 931,602 25 79,090 53 -96,963 50 17,873 30 Wheat 385,172 26 -3,578 44 7,972 49 -4,394 81   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 186,706 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,564 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 172,142 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 54.5 24.6 8.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.1 65.9 3.9 – Net Position: 186,706 -211,434 24,728 – Gross Longs: 279,559 126,328 44,869 – Gross Shorts: 92,853 337,762 20,141 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.2 53.1 34.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.4 10.4 -22.1   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 19,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,819 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,118 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.6 35.9 17.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.5 58.0 8.8 – Net Position: 19,299 -32,571 13,272 – Gross Longs: 56,905 52,943 26,231 – Gross Shorts: 37,606 85,514 12,959 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.6 66.9 20.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.1 9.2 -12.8   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 18,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,700 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,155 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.8 41.2 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.5 53.9 5.7 – Net Position: 18,855 -25,523 6,668 – Gross Longs: 74,302 83,203 18,191 – Gross Shorts: 55,447 108,726 11,523 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.9 41.9 63.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.2 -4.0 7.9   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 11,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,822 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,581 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 47.9 35.4 13.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.9 63.7 5.4 – Net Position: 11,759 -16,638 4,879 – Gross Longs: 28,134 20,817 8,032 – Gross Shorts: 16,375 37,455 3,153 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 18.7 85.3 30.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.6 -8.6 -18.3   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -238 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -992 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.5 51.0 18.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.9 37.2 15.8 – Net Position: -1,230 1,035 195 – Gross Longs: 1,911 3,824 1,377 – Gross Shorts: 3,141 2,789 1,182 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 13.9 83.5 56.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.3 -11.7 18.6   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the strong gains in bullish bets for the Brazilian Real currency futures contracts. Real speculators boosted their bullish bets this week by the largest one-week amount (+33,599 contracts) on record, according the CFTC data going back to 1995. This surge in bullish sentiment pushed the overall net speculator standing for Brazilian Reals into bullish territory for the first time in nineteen weeks, dating back to September 28th. There has been a surge of trading going on in this market over the past couple of weeks with open interest increasing dramatically. Open interest (OI) for the Brazilian currency jumped on February 2nd to a total of 76,175 contracts which marked the highest OI level of the previous 381 weeks, dating all the way back to September of 2014. The previous ten weeks had seen an average open interest of less than half (ten week average of 33,492 contracts) of the February 2nd total. This week’s open interest fell a bit to 64,283 contracts but still was the second highest open interest of the past thirty-six weeks and with all this activity going on, this is a currency to watch. Joining the Brazil real (33,599 contracts) with positive changes this week were the Euro (9,126 contracts), Japanese yen (1,492 contracts), British pound sterling (15,060 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,332 contracts), Mexican peso (514 contracts) and the Russian ruble (1,292 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-806 contracts), Australian dollar (-5,912 contracts), Canadian dollar (-3,378 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,160 contracts) and the Bitcoin futures (-460 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-08-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 53,603 75 33,765 84 -40,826 7 7,061 94 EUR 700,098 83 38,842 47 -73,252 55 34,410 31 GBP 197,948 37 -8,545 68 9,323 35 -778 54 JPY 196,478 53 -59,148 31 75,957 74 -16,809 13 CHF 41,481 16 -9,399 54 16,918 50 -7,519 41 CAD 145,208 27 14,886 62 -16,958 45 2,072 34 AUD 196,403 80 -85,741 5 98,357 92 -12,616 22 NZD 54,877 53 -10,366 54 12,733 50 -2,367 25 MXN 134,257 19 1,244 28 -4,073 71 2,829 55 RUB 39,233 35 15,443 50 -16,839 47 1,396 72 BRL 64,283 81 20,246 96 -22,432 4 2,186 92 Bitcoin 9,886 50 -319 90 -189 0 508 24   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 33,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,571 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 75.3 5.9 16.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.3 82.0 3.3 – Net Position: 33,765 -40,826 7,061 – Gross Longs: 40,370 3,150 8,841 – Gross Shorts: 6,605 43,976 1,780 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 5.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.0 6.8 93.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.2 2.7 15.2   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,716 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.3 54.6 12.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.7 65.1 7.6 – Net Position: 38,842 -73,252 34,410 – Gross Longs: 218,973 382,426 87,725 – Gross Shorts: 180,131 455,678 53,315 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.9 55.0 31.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.0 -15.5 15.3   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,545 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 15,060 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,605 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.6 60.7 13.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.9 56.0 14.0 – Net Position: -8,545 9,323 -778 – Gross Longs: 44,709 120,220 26,951 – Gross Shorts: 53,254 110,897 27,729 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.8 35.2 54.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 30.4 -30.0 17.8   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -59,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,492 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,640 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.0 81.2 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.1 42.6 17.5 – Net Position: -59,148 75,957 -16,809 – Gross Longs: 15,692 159,601 17,609 – Gross Shorts: 74,840 83,644 34,418 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.7 73.9 13.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.8 1.8 5.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,399 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,239 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.0 72.8 23.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.6 32.1 41.8 – Net Position: -9,399 16,918 -7,519 – Gross Longs: 1,234 30,215 9,838 – Gross Shorts: 10,633 13,297 17,357 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.5 49.9 41.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.3 1.9 -8.8   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 14,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,264 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.7 40.2 18.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.5 51.9 17.5 – Net Position: 14,886 -16,958 2,072 – Gross Longs: 54,762 58,404 27,480 – Gross Shorts: 39,876 75,362 25,408 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.1 45.4 33.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.4 -16.7 -2.2   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -85,741 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,912 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,829 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.8 79.0 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.5 28.9 16.3 – Net Position: -85,741 98,357 -12,616 – Gross Longs: 17,323 155,203 19,485 – Gross Shorts: 103,064 56,846 32,101 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.3 92.3 21.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.7 -0.8 12.5   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -10,366 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,332 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,698 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.3 61.2 5.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.2 38.0 10.0 – Net Position: -10,366 12,733 -2,367 – Gross Longs: 17,168 33,591 3,097 – Gross Shorts: 27,534 20,858 5,464 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.9 50.0 24.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.3 4.1 -7.9   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 514 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 730 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.6 61.3 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.7 64.3 2.4 – Net Position: 1,244 -4,073 2,829 – Gross Longs: 45,097 82,287 6,067 – Gross Shorts: 43,853 86,360 3,238 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.9 71.1 55.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.4 -5.2 9.1   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 20,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 33,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,353 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.5 17.6 5.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.0 52.5 2.3 – Net Position: 20,246 -22,432 2,186 – Gross Longs: 49,170 11,336 3,666 – Gross Shorts: 28,924 33,768 1,480 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.7 3.5 91.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 34.2 -37.2 28.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 15,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,151 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.1 43.4 6.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.7 86.3 3.0 – Net Position: 15,443 -16,839 1,396 – Gross Longs: 19,657 17,021 2,555 – Gross Shorts: 4,214 33,860 1,159 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.9 46.9 72.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.5 -15.9 -0.7   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -319 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -460 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 141 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.4 3.8 14.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 81.6 5.7 9.8 – Net Position: -319 -189 508 – Gross Longs: 7,751 376 1,474 – Gross Shorts: 8,070 565 966 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.9 24.8 24.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.9 2.9 -5.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Given last week’s strong price action and gold’s intraday resilience, it is now very likely that gold indeed is breaking out of the multi-month consolidation triangle. Actually, this large and symmetrical triangle had been building for more than a year, at least. However, the correction in gold began on August 7th, 2020. Now it looks like the breakout is in process. Typically, traders tend to aggressively buy into such a breakout. And given Friday’s sharp spike higher, it actually looks exactly like this. Hence, expect more volatility and a sharp move higher as the direction of gold’s next move has become more obvious. Please note, that it is rather challenging to draw and determine the correct triangle, because gold has been in a tricky sideways market for such a long time and many trend-lines have been invalidated during this messy period. But at the latest, a weekly close above US$1,875 should confirm the breakout. This should unleash enough energy to push gold prices quickly towards US$1,900 and even US$1,950 within a few weeks. Obviously, that would fit very well with gold’s seasonal cycle, which is bullish until the end of February at least, but often saw gold rallying into mid of march, too. Consumer sentiment at 10-year low but Fed wants to hike and taper From a fundamental perspective, it leaves us speechless how the Fed can go on a hiking rampage while consumer sentiment is at a 10-year low. While the confidence in governments worldwide is collapsing and inflation is spiking higher, raising rates will have zero impact upon supply shortages. Instead, it will make these shortages only worse and bankrupt more companies in the supply chain. Also, it will bankrupt emerging markets, as the strong dollar has already been putting so much pressure on dollar indebted nations and creditors. It’s all a big mess, and we believe there is no way out. That’s why the warmongering industrial and military complex of the US is desperately trying to push Russia into an attack on Ukraine! Without showing any proof, the Biden administration and their mouthpiece “the mainstream media” have been pushing people’s focus on fears that Russia will soon invade Ukraine. Another noteworthy fundamental observation: Gold’s correction began in earnest when Pfizer & Biontech announced their vaccine on November 9th, 2020. In a first reaction, gold immediately sold off $150 on that same day. Many more similar large red daily candles followed over the last 16 months, destroying the confidence of the gold bugs and shifting millions of dollars to the short sellers. Now that more and more very serious questions about the vaccines are debated in the news, it would make sense for gold to run back to US$1,950. This was the level where gold was trading back on November 9th, 2020. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 13th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 13th, 2022. On the weekly chart, gold has been slowly but surely progressing into the apex of the triangle over the last few months. It now looks like Gold is breaking out with vengeance. Theoretically, the resistance zone between US$1,850 and US$1,875 could still stop the bullish train. The weekly Bollinger Bands (US$1,864) sits right in this zone and should at least challenge the bulls for some days. However, the weekly stochastic has just given a new buy signal. On top, the oscillator has been making higher lows since March 2021. A measured move out of this triangle could take gold to around US$1,950 to US$1.975 until spring. The monthly Bollinger Band ($1,975) could become the logical target! Overall, the weekly chart is becoming more and more bullish, suggesting that gold can at least move around US$80 to US$100 higher. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 13th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 13th, 2022. On the daily chart, gold has been struggling with the upper triangle resistance in November and January. Each time, the bears managed to push back. Now it looks like the bulls are finally successful. The fierce and sharp pullback two and half weeks ago had created a nice oversold setup which became the launching pad for the ongoing attack. Since then, the slow stochastic has been nicely turning around. This buy signal is still active and has not yet reached the overbought zone. Thanks to Friday’s big green candle, the bulls are now bending the upper Bollinger Band (US$1,858) to the upside. To conclude, the daily chart is bullish, and gold should have more upside. If the bulls continue their attack, we could see prices directly exploding for four to seven days. More likely would be a consolidation. Only with prices below US$1,835 the breakout would have failed. In that rather unlikely case, the picture could quickly turn ugly again. Conclusion: Gold is breaking out! In mid of December, gold made an important low around US$1,752. Back then, most gold bugs had enough and did throw in the towel after a very difficult and messy 16-month correction. Gold, silver and the mining stock had become the most hated asset. But actually, all that gold might have been doing was building an epic base and a launch pad to start the next leg higher within its bull market. Overall, we expect that Gold is breaking out after a short consolidation! The successful breakout above resistance between US$1,850 and US$1,875 should happen within the next few days or weeks. This should then lead to higher prices and gold will likely run towards US$1,950, at least. However, we are not sure yet whether this will also bring an attack towards the round number resistance at US$2,000. Given the fact, that gold usually starts to struggle somewhere in spring, the ongoing rally could still be just a counter-trend move within the larger ongoing consolidation/correction. Hence, we are short-term very bullish, mid-term neutral and long-term very bullish for gold. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Florian Grummes|February 13th, 2022|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, gold fundamentals, precious metals, Reyna Gold, US-Dollar About the Author: Florian Grummes Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.

Bitcoin strengthened in the first half of the week and the middle, having managed to test the highs of early January above $45,800. The situation changed on Thursday after the release of US inflation data, which updated the maximum levels for 40 years, and US stock indices fell. This had a negative impact, among other things, on cryptocurrencies, which showed a significant correlation with other risky assets. Late last week, the Fed announced an unscheduled meeting to be held today, February 14th. As a result of the meeting, the regulator may well raise rates without waiting til March. Moreover, even a double increase is possible, by 0.50%. Tightening monetary policy can hit all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. On February 12th, the bitcoin network hashrate updated all-time highs above 248 EH/s. The indicator indicates the strengthening of the position of the blockchain and the development of its infrastructure. Kathy Wood, head of investment company ARK Invest, actively sold shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust backed by bitcoin throughout February. Note that these securities were purchased in July last year, at the time of the BTC reversal upwards. The Central Bank of Hungary has now called on EU countries to ban cryptocurrency trading and mining. The Bank of Russia announced its desire to reduce the involvement of citizens in the crypto market. For example, the Ministry of Finance proposed limiting the list of cryptocurrencies traded in Russia. In general, Bitcoin rose by 1.6% over the past week, ending it at around $42,200. Ethereum lost 5.1%, other leading altcoins from the top ten also mostly sank: from 4.3% (Binance Coin) to 19% (Solana) for a week. The exception was the XRP token, which showed a 20% increase. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, decreased by 1.5% over the week to $1.96 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose by 1% to 40.7% due to the weakening of altcoins.

USDCHF to test resistance The US dollar rises as traders seek safe haven amid tensions in Ukraine. The pair is grinding up along a rising trendline from support at 0.9180. A series of higher lows suggests strong buying interest. A break above the intermediate resistance at 0.9275 may boost buyers’ confidence further. 0.9310 is the next hurdle and its breach would bring the greenback to the double top (0.9370) on the daily chart. On the downside, the trendline is the closest support, and then 0.9180 is a critical level to keep the short-term rally intact. GBPJPY tests demand zone The pound may find support from Britain’s upbeat GDP in Q4. A break above January’s high at 157.70 suggests that the bulls have reclaimed control of price action. The next challenging task is to push above last October’s peak at 158.20. This would resume the uptrend in the medium term. In the meantime, a combination of profit-taking and fresh selling is driving the price towards 155.20. Sentiment would remain steady as long as the sterling met bidders in this demand area. US 30 seeks support The Dow Jones 30 struggled as white-hot US inflation fanned fears of aggressive rate hikes. Nonetheless, a break above the 30-day moving average on the daily chart indicates improved market sentiment. An overbought RSI prompted momentum traders to exit. A fall below 34820 would suggest lingering hesitation among market participants and shake out weak hands. The bulls may see a pullback towards 34500 as a buying opportunity. The rebound may only resume if the price lifts offers around 35400.

It is widely believed that in March-April 2020, retail investors actively bought stock market declines while institutional investors sold. The market's rapid reversal to growth has formed a reflex for retail investors to buy stocks on downturns. However, we note a significant change in market fundamentals. With the onset of the pandemic, central banks were on the side of retail investors, dramatically easing monetary conditions, and governments handed out money and benefits but prohibited going out and spending money. It is correct to say that investors then did not fight institutions but followed a "don't fight the Central Bank" strategy. With the unprecedented injections into the financial system, the pendulum of the markets swung in the upward direction. But in recent weeks, the Fed, having received a surprise in the form of strong employment and rising wages and yesterday with accelerating inflation, must now move to the side of equity and bond sellers. Short-term traders should keep a close eye on how monetary policy expectations change. A month ago, the assumptions of 7 Fed rate hikes in 2022 or a 50-point step in March looked marginal. Yesterday the latter option was almost entirely in the price of rate futures. There is talk of a possible start of active selling from the Fed's balance sheet, and there is also talk of an extraordinary rate hike, possibly even today. Markets can hardly sustain this pace of tightening expectations for long. But while this is happening, it won't be a wise strategy to bet against the dollar and for the stock market.

The Swing Overview - Week 6 The record inflation rate in the US over the past 40 years sparked another wave of volatility in the markets on fears of more aggressive Fed action against an overheated economy. Unexpectedly strong US labour market data also came as a shock to markets. As a consequence, yields in the US 10-year bonds rose and broke the 2% mark. Equity indices, on the other hand, weakened towards the end of the week and we will see whether strong supports will be tested again under the influence of these fundamentals. Rising bond yields are not good news for gold either, which has so far responded to the strengthening dollar and rising yields by weakening. The macroeconomic data from the US Inflation and labour market data were clearly among the most anticipated macroeconomic events last week. Year-on-year inflation in the US rose to 7.5% in January 2022. This is the highest reading since February 1982 and is also higher than analysts' estimates, that had expected inflation to be around 7.3%. The reasons for the higher inflation are rising energy costs, a tight labor market and disruptions in supply chains, which are multiplied by strong demand in a recovering economy. The biggest contributors to rising inflation were energy prices, which rose by 27%, and fuel prices, which rose by 40%. Figure 1: The inflation in the US In terms of the labour market, the US economy created 467,000 new jobs in January. This was much more than the analysts' forecast, who estimated that, given the spread of the Omicron variant, only 150 thousand new jobs would be created in the US in January. Figure 2: The US jobs growth (NFP) This very strong data means one thing. The Fed will tighten the economy and probably at a much faster pace than the market expects. And this is also the reason for the further rise in the US 10-year bond yields, which have surpassed the 2% mark and reached their highest level since August 2019. Along with this, the dollar index, which had made a correction last week, has also started to strengthen.   Figure 3: 10-year government bond yield on the 4H chart and the USD index on the daily chart A strong dollar, rising yields and the economy tightening at a faster pace than the market expects are clearly negative news for equity indices and also gold.   The NASDAQ and the SP500 Earnings season continues in the US. Of the well-known companies, Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) reported results last week. While the company's earnings were higher than expectations, the pharmaceutical giant also reported that it expects revenue for 2022 to be USD 32 billion, below analysts' expectations, who were hoping for growth of around USD 33.8 billion.  Facebook continues to lose ground after last week's washout, causing the share price to drop from USD 320 to USD 220 in one week.   Figure 4: The NASDAQ index on H4 and D1 chart The NASDAQ started last week with a rise and the price approached the resistance according to the H4 chart. The information about record inflation had a strong negative impact on technology stocks and the price was moving near the support at the end of the week, which is in the range near 14,392 - 14,530 according to the H4 chart. Significant support is in the area at 13,750-13,950 according to the daily chart. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 15,050 - 15,080.   Figure 5: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   There has been a very similar pattern on the SP 500 index to the NASDAQ. The price got to the resistance which is defined by the horizontal resistance area at 4,580 - 4,600. At the same time, there is a confluence with the broken trend line of the rising channel below which the index is moving. Support according to the H4 chart is at 4440 - 4454. According to the daily chart, significant support is at 4,225 - 4,300.   German DAX index Figure 6: The DAX on H4 and daily chart There is no clear direction on this index recently. We can probably say that the index is moving in a sideways trend which according to the daily chart is defined by the strong resistance at 16,300 (all-time high) and the support which has already been tested several times in the area between 14,850 - 15,000. The current move shows that the rising channel has been broken to the downside and also that the moving averages on the H4 chart EMA 50 and SMA 100 are in a bearish constellation. This together with the higher inflation data and also the recently announced hawkish ECB policy would suggest more of a move down to the aforementioned support. The nearest horizontal resistance according to the H4 chart is at 15,532 - 15,620. The next resistance according to the H4 chart is at 15,727 - 15,757.   The EUR/USD near strong resistance The EURUSD approached the strong 1.15 level but after the US inflation data was announced, the pair started to fall strongly. Thus, according to the H4 chart, a false break of the resistance arose, which is in the band around 1.1480 which tends to be a strong signal for further weakening. Figure 7: EURUSD on H4 and daily chart The possibility of a weakening is also indicated by the development of the interest rate differential that is present in the yields between the 10-year bonds of Germany and the US. This has recently been very strongly correlated with developments on the EURUSD. Figure 8: Correlation of the interest rate differential between German and US 10-year bonds with the EURUSD currency pair on H4   The interest rate differential is starting to decline and this should suggest that the EURUSD might weaken. The nearest resistance is at the 1.1460 - 1.1480 band. The nearest support according to the H4 chart is at 1.1360 - 1.1370. The next one is at 1.1270 - 1.1280.   Gold Gold is taken by many investors as a hedge against inflation. But lately, gold seems to be losing in the battle for inflation protection to US Treasuries, which carry some yield, while gold does not deliver any yield. Gold is most responsive to the value of the US dollar. If the dollar rises, gold tends to depreciate and vice versa. Recent developments in the USD index suggest that the dollar could strengthen again this week, which should mean a test of support for gold. Figure 9: Gold on H4 and D1 charts   The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is in the area of 1,835 - 1,841. Then the next resistance according to the daily chart is at 1,847 - 1,852. The nearest support is at 1 788 - 1 795 and then 1 780 - 1 784 USD per troy ounce of gold.  

The strengthening of the ruble was interrupted on Friday as geopolitical factors again came to the forefront, pushing aside the fundamental and long-term factors that supported the ruble. The Bank of Russia did everything in its power to support the Russian currency: the rate was raised by 100 points to 9.5%, investors were warned of further increases, and the pause in foreign currency purchases for the Finance Ministry was extended. Nevertheless, before the weekend, investors again preferred to reduce the risks of owning Russian assets against the background of the fact that several Foreign Ministries of different countries called on their citizens to leave Ukraine. For the markets, this is a signal that a new round of geopolitical tensions and the negotiations in the outgoing week did not bring the long-awaited agreement. Against the backdrop of news about geopolitics, the RTS index lost more than 4.6%, and the Moscow Exchange fell by 3%. It seems that the Russian market will have to experience the convulsions of geopolitics more than once for at least another week. Fixing the ruble above 76.40 per dollar and 86.60 per euro will mean that the period of corrective rollback of the ruble has come to an end, and we need to prepare for a new wave of growth. But this is from the standpoint of technical analysis. In practice, geopolitics now rules the roost, where détente can be as fast as escalation. At the same time, fundamental factors (high rates of the Central Bank, expensive oil, and a pause in foreign currency purchases) continue to play on the side of the ruble. These factors promise to return the ruble to the path of growth very quickly, repeating the dynamics of the previous two weeks. If we are right, then the ruble may remain in an upward trend until the end of February, rushing to the area of 71 per dollar and 83 per euro by the end of the month.

The news from US intelligence that the Russian aggression on Ukraine was a done deal spooked markets on Friday. While Russia denied it, the situation doesn't seem to be getting any better. How will markets react to further developments? Prepare for various options Markets are reacting and investors should prepare for potentially turbulent times. This is why we present 3 potential scenarios of the Ukrainian conflict and highlight key markets that may be affected. Watch these markets: Stocks – Russian banks, RTS and… Nasdaq VTB and Sberbank – the names of these institutions are nearly synonymous with sanctions on Russia. Little wonder these stocks are among top choices on the equity side. Investors may also focus on the diversified RTS Index where Sberbank has 14% share – the index has plenty of energy stocks as well and is down 30% from late 2021 highs. A less obvious choice is Nasdaq (US100). Why would US tech stocks react to the conflict in Europe? Well, since this market has its own share of problems (mainly Fed tightening), other bad news could impact investor sentiment even further. Commodities – Oil, Gold, Platinum, Palladium and Wheat Russia is the second largest exporter of Oil and the commodity is also a substitute for natural gas which has already been in tight supply in Europe. Gold has traditionally been a "top pick”for times of geopolitical uncertainty but we'd like to turn your attention to Palladium and Platinum – these are also precious metals but Russia is way more important here being the number 1 and 2 exporter respectively. Finally, both Russia and Ukraine are important producers of Wheat. FX – focus on USDRUB FX is fairly obvious – any conflict is detrimental for the Russian ruble even despite high oil prices and significant interest rate increases in Russia. On the other hand, USD attracts liquidity in times of distress so USDRUB could be the choice for investors here. 3 scenarios – invasion, tension and compromise The worst case scenario is the one of invasion – the one already hinted at by the US intelligence. Invasion means sanctions but actually the lack of sanctions is the key to reactions here (as the largest guns – like cutting off Russia from SWIFT – are supposedly off the table). Markets know that if Russia invades, forcing it to withdraw will be costly and that will feed uncertainty and fear. Critically negative for Russian stocks, negative for global stocks, positive for oil and precious metals and USDRUB. The most likely scenario could be the one of prolonged tension – Moscow can pose threats for as long as it achieves certain results (there’s a talk of autonomy or even referendums in Eastern parts of Ukraine). While politically complicated, this scenario can actually be a relief for the markets. For as long as invasion risk declines, this scenario is positive for stocks while being negative for oil, precious metals and USDRUB. Finally a scenario most would prefer – there's a sound compromise and Russian troops are ordered away from the Ukrainian border. This would be extremely positive for stocks (especially Russian banks and the Russian index) while negative for oil, precious metals and USDRUB. Unfortunately, this scenario also seems to be the least likely. XTB Research

The battle for investment land is still going on, and the lack of attractive assets feels more and more severe. This applies to all large cities in Poland. For a long time, no matter the place, the investment land has not been easily available. In contrast, there are both plenty of people willing to buy land, as well as free funds to finance these purchases. The money surplus is enormous. Investors are trying to invest their capital in land as soon as possible, for fears of inflation. Although the peak shopping spree, often associated with really risky decisions, has already passed, the situation continues to bear resemblance to the one we remember from the years 2007-2008, when everything was selling like hot cakes, at rapidly rising prices. The appearance of new investors has shortened the sale process of attractive lands, which now usually closes within 3 months. In turn, the difficulty is the highly overestimated value of many plots of land or the unregulated ownership status of the property. The owners of land are also very reluctant to reserve the land through conditional or preliminary purchase agreements without deposit (earnest money). Maximizing profits through investments in land There are many companies willing to invest in land, despite the prices of land in some locations are growing in a blistering pace. The greatest shortage occurs in case of large plots for housing development in well-connected parts of cities. When the interesting plots of up to 5,000 m2 of residential and usage space appear on the market, even several companies compete for it. The larger the plot, the lower the number of competitors. Over the last two years, rates on the investment land market have increased by several dozen percent, depending on the location. Prices for 1 m2 of residential and usage space in attractive places in Warsaw or Krakow jumped by as much as 60 percent. Investors, for fear of further increases, buy land to increase their future profits. They are not deterred by soaring construction costs and time-consuming administrative procedures. The purchase of land can be financed in a number of ways. Many transactions are based on loans, many is financed from ongoing development activities, and some from issuance of bonds.   The pro-ecological, high standard housing estates, in unique location, turned out to be a hit among housing investments in the last year. The recent changes have translated into the demand for flats in recreational and tourist-attractive locations. The demand for land for residential buildings is further increased by the investments into premises for institutional quality lease. More and more development companies are involved in this type of projects, despite the lower margin. The share of the Private Rented Sector (PRS) in the sale of apartments as registered in 2021 by listed entities has already increased to over a dozen percent. Warehouses, warehouses everywhere As in case of housing developments, we can talk about very high demand for land for the planned warehouse and industrial investments. Wherever we see changes, road infrastructure improvements or express roads planned for construction, the land is immediately secured with preliminary contracts. It is easier to find plots for logistics projects, as investments in this sector are also carried out in greenfield areas located outside the administrative borders of cities. Therefore, both the greater supply and less competition from investors looking for land for investments in residential or service and commercial sectors. The land in required for both large-format investments with an area of ​​several dozen or over 100 thousand m2, as well as the so-called last mile warehouses and smaller municipal facilities. Investors from the warehouse sector are primarily interested in plots located near logistics hubs and in the vicinity of the largest cities, as well as plots located in smaller towns due to the rapidly growing online sales. The warehouse market is currently experiencing a period of the development of speculative investments. The companies are not afraid to perform such projects, as the demand for warehouse space has never been growing so fast as now, and there is practically no free warehouses space available. This is largely related to the growth of the e-commerce market, which is expected to grow further in value in the coming years, at the average rate of several per cent per annum. Moreover, the change of the transport structure, shortening the supply chains or the growing demand for buffer areas, where inventories are stored, also affect this demand. Similarly, the warehouses generate over half of the transaction volume on the investment market in Poland. Year by year, the logistics and industrial sectors are increasing their market share, reaching new highs. Our market is the point of interest of foreign capital from Europe, mainly from Germany, as well as North American and Asian companies. Shares of small shopping centers are going up Developers also share a keen interest in the construction of retail parks. The format now brings together as many as three-quarters of new investments in the retail sector. Retail parks, just like warehouses, have attracted more and more attention of funds and capital groups as investment assets. Although in Poland in 2021 the retail space has increased by 300,000 m2, with the same amount currently under construction, 70 percent of which being the retail parks, unfortunately there is still a shortage of this commodity. Hence, one-third of transactions for the purchase of commercial real properties from the last year concerned older-generation properties, dominated by properties owned by Tesco. The recent popularity of retail parks and convenience centers has resulted in the increased interest of the investors to perform such projects. Investors often enter into these investments in order to diversify their real properties portfolio. However, of course there are also entities on the market that specialize only in this format. The advantage of projects related to the construction of retail parks is that their construction process can be completed within 18 months, and the entry threshold is much lower in comparison to larger projects. In case of these projects, investors are looking for land mostly in smaller cities up to 100,000 or even 50,000 residents, in which market saturation is not too high. Land in such locations is much cheaper than in the largest cities, which also translates into higher investment profitability. The most attractive plots of land for new projects are located in areas which can potentially be visited also by residents of the surrounding boroughs. In case of retail parks, the key to ensuring satisfactory returns on investment is to include in the list of tenants a popular foodstuff chainstore. This is not only one of the most important reasons for visiting a shopping center, but also influences the image of the facility. An interesting trend that we can observe recently is the appearance of new brands in retail parks, often boutique brands, that have never been present in such facilities before. Land - the star of the investment market The high activity on the investment land market is also evidenced by the transactions carried out in 2021 by LBC Invest, most of which concerned land real properties. In WrocÅ‚aw and Kraków, we have supported our clients with comprehensive customer services for contracting of land in the implementation of development projects in the residential segment for over 45.000 m2 of residential and usable area. Some of them are under construction, and some are in the phase of obtaining building permits. We also closed a few speculative transactions last year. We are currently performing activities on over 70 ha of land. In the last quarter of 2021, we also signed contracts for the performance of comprehensive investment processes, including commercialization for retail parks located in Krakow and two smaller cities – in Lesser Poland and Pomeranian regions, with investors both from Africa and Poland. Last year, we also managed transactions for the purchase of commercialized land, together with construction designs and a building permit, and at the same time concluding general contracting agreements with previously selected companies. Concluding the contract of sale in this form was a condition for the purchase of investment areas, especially those for retail parks and located in attractive locations, with a built-up area of ​​2,500 to 8,000 GLA.

Recently, Google (GOOGL) announced that it would conduct a stock split. Inspired by an excellent 4th quarter earnings report and a high share price, Google has decided to split the stock to help more new investors acquire shares. The split would be a 20-for-1 stock split. How Has Google Grown Over the Years? In 2015, Google rebranded itself into the Tech giant Alphabet. Larry Page sought to make Google something more than a search engine. The company had ambitions of working on healthcare, hardware, and drones, which was a bit different from having a search engine-focused business. It would help create something more than the internet. So, Google changed its name and vision to the holding company Alphabet, allowing them to create, experiment, and invest in new opportunities. People continue to see the growth in a stock like Alphabet. After the 4th quarter, Alphabet announced their earnings, which grew over 32%. This revenue growth sent the stock soaring another 7.5% in after-hours trading. Due to the continued growth of Alphabet, their stock has become too pricey for everyday retail investors. A split can solve the problem. For instance, both Apple (AAPL) and Telsa (TSLA) split their stock allowing more investors to buy at lower prices. In addition, splitting their stock to lower the cost enables new investors to jump on board and become owners of the company. Alphabet has three classes of stock, class A, B, and C. Class A gives each shareholder one vote. Class B is for some of the founders and early investors into the company, and they have ten votes per share. Lastly, Class C has no votes. Each of these classes will conduct a stock split. One of the great things about Alphabet is that it continues to grow. Since May of 2020, Alphabet's value has doubled. Earlier this year, Alphabet posted a 62% revenue growth for the 2nd quarter. Right now, the company is worth just shy of $2 trillion, making it one of the world's largest companies by market cap. So naturally, investors want to be a part of a growing company. A stock split allows more people to be invested for the long term with Alphabet. What Exactly is a Stock Split? A stock split is when a company splits a stock dividing it up and giving the shareholder additional shares. For instance, if a share of stock was worth $1,000, a company could do a 10-for-1 split. This split would give each shareholder ten shares for every share they currently own. Each share would now be worth $100 apiece. However, the total market capitalization does not change before or after the split. Companies may split the stock when the share price rises too quickly, making it unattainable for new customers to hold that share. The price gets too high. Why is Alphabet Splitting Its Stock? Alphabet is the most expensive stock on a per share basis in Silicon Valley, and there are other opportunities to explore as an investor. Alphabet's stock is nearly $3,000 per share. At this stock price, many new investors cannot own a part of Alphabet unless they go the route of fractional shares or do index investing. Other authors have speculated that Alphabet is seeking to join the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Dow Jones is a price-weighted index, and with the high price of Alphabet stock, the Index would not want to bring them on board. In August of 2020, Apple did a 4-for-1 split of their stock, and it lowered their weight by about 3% in the Dow 30. Companies like Alphabet and Amazon are too large to be added into the Dow. Their stock prices would have an uneven weight due to the high cost. If those companies split their stock to lower prices, it gives them more advantages, and they can join the Dow 30. As Alphabet wants to continue to grow, it will want to add new investors and reach broader audiences. By potentially joining the Dow 30, Alphabet can make this happen by going through the various index funds and mutual funds that track the Dow Jones. Will the Split Affect the Value of the Stock? What happens when a split is announced? The total value of the shares will not drop. Instead, the new stock price will fall by 1/20th of the old stock price. Typically, shares increase in aftermarket trading like we saw the day after Alphabet announced the split. The total value will not be reduced in any way after the stock split. Each Class A and Class B shareholder will now have more votes but in the same proportion as before the split, and the Class C shares will continue to be the cheapest avenue to owning a piece of Google. When Will This Stock Split Take Place? Alphabet has announced that everyone that owns sarees on July 1st will receive their new shares on Friday, July 15th. That price should be around $150 per share, which is 1/20th of the cost of $3,000. The trading at the new stock price will take place on July 18th. What Does This Mean for the Regular Investor? Typically, a stock split is neither good nor bad. The stock will usually rise with the new interest from investors, and eventually, the buzz will fade away. However, if this is a worry for you as an individual shareowner, then maybe owning an index fund or ETF is the way to go for you to improve diversification. As Alphabet grows, it will continue to grow its revenue streams and bring more value to the shareholder. Growth is an excellent thing for an investor. We see many companies declining, like GE (GE) or even AT&T (T). For instance, AT&T (T) cut its dividend due to continued weakness and a change in strategy. As companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet continue to innovate and create, investors will want to be a part of the journey as shareholders. Should you worry about Google's stock split? Again, there is nothing to worry about; just keep to your investing strategy and keep investing. Author Bio: Dividend Power is a self-taught investor and blogger on dividend growth stocks and financial independence. Some of his writings can be found on Seeking Alpha, TalkMarkets, ValueWalk, The Money Show, Forbes, Yahoo Finance, Entrepreneur, FXMag, and leading financial blogs. He also works as a part-time freelance equity analyst with a leading newsletter on dividend stocks. He was recently in the top 1.5% (126 out of over 8,212) of financial bloggers as tracked by TipRanks (an independent analyst tracking site) for his articles on Seeking Alpha. Disclaimer: Dividend Power is not a licensed or registered investment adviser or broker/dealer. He is not providing you with individual investment advice. Please consult with a licensed investment professional before you invest your money. 

Dogecoin price action is under pressure as global markets are nervous about a possible escalation between Ukraine and Russia. DOGE looks set to break the low from the previous week and dip towards $0.1357 Expect once DOGE price reaches that level to see a rally into the weekend that could hold 40% gains. Dogecoin (DOGE) is set for a solid rally but first needs to face the most vital forces with global markets pressing on all assets with a mood of risk-off, as today and tomorrow could be the tipping point in the escalation towards a war between Russia and Ukraine. As tailwinds are just too big a force to face, DOGE will dip further towards solid support at $0.1357. Once bulls enter, expect a big rally that could swing up to 40% towards $0.19. Time for the bulls to stake a step back and look at the bigger picture Dogecoin is under pressure as the overall cryptocurrency space joins global markets rattled by a crucial moment in the Russia-Ukraine development. As Russian army exercises near the Ukrainian border are set to end tomorrow, the crucial moment for a possible invasion to take place before then. This is putting markets on edge with risk-off across the board and EU equities down more than 3%. This risk sentiment is weighing on DOGE price action with the low of last week being tested, and bears using the entry-level from Sunday at $0.1594 where the 55-day Simple Moving Average and the pivotal historical level delivered a firm rejection to the upside. With that, expect this downtrend to continue today and dip towards $0.1357, which already proved its support at the end of January. Once there, expect bulls to jump on the opportunity and lead a rally that could jump as much as 40% towards $0.19 once the geopolitical rhetoric dies down and cools off. DOGE/USD daily chart Should Russia engage in war with Ukraine and invade, expect this to pull the trigger for investors to flee the markets and cause a fire sale across the board. For DOGE this would mean that it could tank another 24% on top of the 7% forecasted for today. That would bring DOGE price action down to around $0.1030, where the monthly S1 support level is situated, the red descending trendline and the $0.1000 psychological level – providing three elements that could catch the falling price action.

S&P 500 opening range gave way to heavy selling as 4,470s didn‘t hold. Risk-on was overpowered, and the flight to Treasuries didn‘t support tech. And that‘s most medium-term worrying – stocks don‘t look to have found a floor, and gave up the opportunity for a tight range trading on Friday all too easily. The prospects of war were that formidable opponent, against which the S&P 500 didn‘t really stand a chance. So, the downtrend has reasserted itself, and HYG doesn‘t look to have found a floor – junk bonds are leading to the downside, with energy, materials and financials standing out, which isn‘t exactly a bullish constellation. The other key beneficiaries of the safe haven bid were gold, miners and oil. Silver lagged as copper retreated all too easily, but I‘m looking for that to change. As for Monday‘s session in stocks, the odds of a countertrend move to the upside, at least intraday, are good. Just a quick glance at the dollar, gold, oil and Bitcoin would reveal the extent of possible stabilization. Stabilization, not a reversal, because HYG is unlikely to turn up, and I‘m not looking for stocks to start moving up again. Thursday marked a high point in the countertrend rally, which was cut short after some 5 days only. Sideways to a little up is the best the bulls can hope for on Monday. Funny though how with all eyes on Eastern Europe, the inflation and steep rate hike bets receded? What a Super Bowl! Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Whatever backing and filling there could have been, the S&P 500 didn‘t hesitate, and is pointing to the downside. The bears are back, and aren‘t yielding. Credit Markets Credit markets went decidedly risk-off, and a little sideways reprieve wouldn‘t be surprising. But it would change nothing as the bets on rising rates, are on, and the 2-year Treasury is forcing the Fed‘s hand. Gold, Silver and Miners Miners and gold came alive on the tensions escalation news – the uptrend is alive and well indeed, even without these geopolitical developments. The upswing wasn‘t really sold into. Crude Oil Crude oil correction came to an abrupt close, and it‘s unlikely black gold would dip in the current environment. The upcoming corrections would be bought as much as the previous one, and given the oil stocks performance, wouldn‘t likely reach far to the downside. Copper Copper is under pressure, and not holding up as well as other commodities. Base metals though are breaking higher, which is why I‘m looking at Friday‘s red metal trading as a temporary setback only. Bitcoin and Ethereum The floor in cryptos is heralding a tight range day – it‘s good for risk-on that Friday‘s downswing isn‘t immediately continuing, it‘s buying some time. Summary S&P 500 bears are back in the driver‘s seat, and the rush to Treasuries took the spotlight off rate hikes – to a small degree. Not that the Fed would be changing course on geopolitics, we aren‘t there yet. To the contrary, credit markets are pressuring the central bank to move – as decisively as possible in the overleveraged system – and Powell would find it hard not to deliver. Come autumn latest, the strain on the real economy would be hard to ignore – real estate is feeling the pinch already. Stock bulls can‘t expect higher prices unless tech recovers, and we look to be still far from that moment. Real assets with safe haven appeal are likely to do best, and the same goes for the dollar temporarily too. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

TSLA drops nearly 5% on Friday as macro factors in charge. All EV stocks LCID, Chinese names suffer the same fate. Tesla once again is targetting its 200-day moving average. Tesla (TSLA) followed many EV names (all, if we are correct) lower on Friday as macro factors took charge over equity markets. The dominant theme so far in 2022 has been one of rising rates and inflationary pressures. This has led to high growth and tech names underperforming, while energy and financial stocks have been the place to be. That is likely to remain the theme for at least the next quarter if not also Q2. Russia and Ukraine tensions have pushed the oil price above $90, and financial stocks benefit from higher interest rates. Growth stocks, however, do not benefit from higher interest rates as investors look for businesses with cash. With higher interest rates, future cash flows become less valuable. So of the three names mentioned, Tesla, Rivian (RIVN) or Lucid (LCID), we would not want to currently be long any of them. We expect TSLA to perform best of the three due to its market-leading position and revenue, but this sector is out of favour and likely to remain so. Tesla Stock News The latest data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) confirms what we saw from Chinese EV companies earlier. Deliveries for January were down versus December. This is due to the lunar new year in China. Tesla sold 59,845 vehicles in January, down from 70,847 China-made vehicles in December. The Chinese electric vehicle market remains the largest EV market in the world, helped by government incentives and population demand. Tesla Stock Forecast Tesla remains in the strong downtrend identified earlier this year. $945 was tested multiple times as resistance and failed. This has resulted in the recent pullback. Now $824 remains as the 200-day moving average. Below we have trendline support at $752. The 200-day is the key level. Tesla has not closed below its 200-day moving average since June 2021. It has broken the 200-day on an intraday basis several times since but always failed to close below. Notice how volume has steadily been declining in Tesla this month, despite some hugely volatile days. This is indicative of a lack of conviction in the stock. Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily

Since the end of last week, the price of gold has risen by more than 3%. With a high of $1879, it was temporarily rose to highs since last June. Biden's warning that Russia could invade Ukraine "at any moment" triggered a broad sell-off in Europe and several emerging markets and tangentially affected the US equity market. Recent events have brought back interest in assets that have benefited from decades of tension: gold has risen as insurance against currency destabilisation, and oil has risen on fears of a surge in demand and a shortage of supply. Geopolitics give a shaky ground behind this growth, so investors should be wary of joining gold's rise. It is impossible to predict whether the next move will escalate or de-escalate. Now, there are far more signs that the peak of tension is behind us, yet gold continues to gain today. Likely, the fundamental demand for gold is now driven by a desire to preserve the purchasing value of capital amid inflation and ongoing price shocks across a range of commodities. Also, tech analysis is now on the side of the bulls. A trend of higher local lows has formed since the end of September, with the last anchor point in late January. In addition, the 50-day moving average is again above the 200-day moving average, giving a bullish "golden cross" signal. This signal coincided with a solid upward momentum on Friday, strengthening the bullish signal. In January, the former retracement resistance line became support, indicating a break in the trend. If gold stays above $1865 - the area of the November peaks- despite the reduction of the geopolitical premium - we can speak of a bullish momentum development. In this case, the nearest target of this impulse will be the area of $1900-1910. In general, we can say that the long period of correction and sluggish dynamics of gold is over, and then its price can move from one local top to another, potentially exceeding $2000 by August.

USDJPY hits double top The US dollar recovers as hot CPI fuels bets of a 50 basis points hike in March. The rally came to a halt at January’s high (116.35). Profit-taking compounded by new selling triggered a liquidation below 115.50. The medium-term trajectory remains upward and the bulls may be eager to buy the dips. 114.90 is the next support and an oversold RSI may attract bargain hunters. Further down, the daily support at 114.20 is a major demand zone in case of a deeper correction. A close above the double top could resume the uptrend. XAGUSD tests resistance Bullion rallies over investors’ flight to safety. Silver continues to climb from the daily support at 22.00. Following a brief pullback, a break above the recent high at 23.70 indicates strong buying interest. A bullish MA cross is a sign of acceleration to the upside. The psychological level of 24.00 is the next hurdle and a breakout would bring the price to January’s peak at 24.70. The RSI’s overbought situation may cause a limited fallback; if so the previous low at 22.90 would be the closest support. GER 40 tests critical floor The Dax 40 remains under pressure over Russia-Ukraine tensions. The last rebound’s failure to achieve a new high showed that the bears were still in charge. Trend followers are likely to sell into strength as sentiment remains wary. The index saw bids in the critical demand zone around 14900 which has been tested several times in the last four months. A bearish breakout would trigger a broader sell-off and put a serious dent in the medium-term rally. The bulls will need to reclaim 15500 before they could turn things around.

The first cryptocurrency returned to growth on Tuesday morning, adding 3.3% and rising to 43,500. Technically, BTCUSD held above the 50-day moving average and received support from buyers after another touch of this level. At the same time, however, this average is directed downwards, emphasizing the general downward trend. Cryptocurrencies seem to be once again trying on the role of a safe-haven asset, becoming a little more like gold and a little less like stocks. Although US stock indices were under pressure on Monday, they decided to stop the sharp decline at the end of last week. However, the high-tech Nasdaq ended the day unchanged. European stock indicators showed a noticeable drop under the influence of tensions around Ukraine. On the same background, gold shot up 3% to highs since June last year. It should be understood that in the event of a massive sale of shares, only short-term government bonds will be the protective asset of last resort. Institutions invested $75 million in crypto funds last week, according to CoinShares. Over the past four weeks, net inflows to crypto funds amounted to $209 million. The head of Uber said that the company would definitely start accepting cryptocurrencies in the future. A British crypto investor has announced the creation of a city for crypto investors in the Pacific and expects thousands of supporters from around the world to join soon. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation proposed to limit the investments of unqualified Russian investors in cryptocurrencies to 50 thousand rubles. The agency estimates tax revenues to the budget from the legalization of the cryptocurrency market at 10-15 billion rubles, and the main amount of payments will fall on the miners. Overall, Bitcoin was down 0.2% on Monday, ending the day at around $42,200. Ethereum added 0.1%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten showed mixed dynamics: from a decrease of 1.6% (XRP) to a rise of 2 .2% (Terra). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, grew by 0.5% per day, to $1.97 trillion. The BTC dominance index did not change during the day, remaining at the level of 40.7%. The Fear and Greed Index is up 2 points to 46 and is in a state of fear.

We’re seeing a solid momentum shift today as news hit that some Russian troops have been returned to bases. This ease in tentions is driving risk buying after what has been a sorry few days for buyers as prices plunged on worries Russia was close to invading Ukraine. Friday GER30 returned to LT support a level that held for buyers since May 2021. Above that, we are also watching a shorter-term level of support seen at 15,030. On top of the levels, we can also see a double bottom and the Williams %R has crossed the mid-point range. While these technical indicators look great the meat in this sandwich is the continued ease in tentions, this fact in our opinion is key to seeing this current rally turn into something more. If we do see a continuation of buying as the European situation improves we would look for the GER30 to continue tracking higher and we would look at 15,601 as possible resistance if reached which lines up with the longer-term 86ema. GER30 D1 Chart  The post CFD Update: GER30 on the recovery trail as tensions ease appeared first on Eightcap.

The Russian market is trying to grow this morning. The RTS index has already added 5.5%, while the ruble has taken away 1.7% from the dollar and 1.3% from the euro. The growth impulse was formed yesterday when Foreign Minister Lavrov called for a search for diplomatic ways out of the situation. Later, comments by Zelensky, who in an address to the nation insisted on a diplomatic solution, and a speech by Shoigu, who ordered part of the troops to return to locations of permanent de-escalation, added positives. So far, these are only signals of readiness to discuss and look for ways to resolve it, but the incident is far from over: there are too many “buts” at all levels. If we consider the movement of currencies and stocks from the position that the market takes everything into account, we cannot fail to note positive signals. The EURRUB pair returned to the position from which it rushed upwards on Friday. Fixation below 85 will send a signal of market confidence in a trend reversal. In this case, a fast road to area 84 will be open for the pair. If politicians really plan to move forward on issues that have hung over the ruble like a sword of Damocles for the last 8 years, it will be possible to talk about the potential for the euro to roll back to the level of 80 rubles before the end of the first quarter. For the dollar, the significant point is the mark of 73.50. Fixing below this level will mark the renewal of the lows of the exchange rate for the entire last stage of tension and will also return the Russian currency to the long-term growth trend. In this case, a move to the 70 area over the next six weeks could be a viable prospect. However, even these relatively short-term forecasts look too shaky since the situation can turn 180 degrees at any second.

Emini S&P MARCH could be forming the right shoulder of a huge head & shoulders pattern now, with shorts at strong resistance again at 4580/90 the perfect trade last week. Shorts at resistance at 4500/10 worked perfectly on Friday as we hit 4445/35 & broke below here (not surprisingly) . THE WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW HERE IS MORE NEGATIVE FOR NEXT WEEK IF WE CONTINUE TO HOLD BELOW. Nasdaq MARCH outlook negative with a high for the day exactly at resistance at 14380/410 yesterday. Emini Dow Jones MARCH volatile with no clear trend or pattern. We could be building a head & shoulders reversal pattern but we are a long way off completion. Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P holding below 4445/35 (a high for the day 7 points below here yesterday) is an obvious sell signal targeting 4405/00 & support at 4360/50. (A LOW FOR THE DAY EXACTLY HERE YESTERDAY). A break lower targets 4325/20 then 4270/65. Further losses test incredibly important support at 4195/4185. I still think gains are likely to be limited with resistance again at 4435/45 but a move above 4450 can target 4475/80, perhaps as far as resistance at 4500/10. Shorts need stops above 4520. Obviously we still have strong resistance again at 4580/90 (but I doubt we see this level again for a very long time). Shorts need stops above 4610. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 4640/50. Nasdaq continues to trend lower so I will expect that gains are likely to be limited with minor resistance at 14380/410 (a high for the day exactly here yesterday) & again at 14500/530. A sell opportunity at 14720/750. Shorts need stops above 14850. A break below 14180/160 targets 13900/850 before a retest of the January low at 13720/700. On a break below 13650 we could go quite quickly to 13400/350 & strong support at 13000/12900 Emini Dow Jones saw a high for the day exactly at 34750/700 level. We headed lower to 34500/450 with a low for the day at the next target of 34300/250. Watch these levels again today. A break lower however targets support at 34000/33950. A break lower however targets 33650/600. Minor resistance at 34950/35000 with strong resistance at 35350/400. Shorts need stops above 35500. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

Dax 40 extremely volatile (which I still think is part of the process of building a bear trend) & breaking to the downside at last EuroStoxx 50 MARCH breaks important support at 4060/50 for a longer term sell signal. FTSE 100 MARCH We wrote: Severely overbought & I feel we can go lower but there is no sell signal whatsoever. Initially prices tumbled to first support at 7530/10 with a break lower yesterday to the next target of 7460/50 & well on the way to 7405/7395. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Dax trying to break below important support again at 15050/15000 for a serious sell signal for this week. We can quickly go to 14800 (A LOW FOR THE DAY YESTERDAY AT 14831). A break below here is a more serious sell signal initially targeting 14680/650, eventually as far as 14350/300. Bulls now need prices above 15250 to regain control. (So shorts need stops above here). We can then target 15360/390. If we continue higher look for 15500/550. EuroStoxx holding below 4060/50 should be seen as a very serious sell signal - a move straight to 3900/3890 is likely. I would be concerned about a crash - A break below 3865 should trigger further significant losses. Bulls need prices back above 4100 to regain control. We can then target 4125/30. Expect strong resistance at 4170/80. Shorts need stops above 4190. FTSE now has strong resistance at 7510/30, which if tested & holds again today re-targets 7460/50 then 7405/7395. Expect strong support at 7350/40. Shorts at 7510/30. Stop above 75540. A break higher however can target 7570/80 before a retest of 7620/30. Further gains target 7660/70, perhaps as far as 7740/60. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

Events in recent weeks have brought back interest in assets that have benefited from tensions in previous decades, with gold rising as insurance against currency destabilisation and oil rising on fears of surging demand and shortages of supply if sanctions constrain supplies from Russia. Interestingly, the West is trying to balance sanctions restrictions on oil as more encouraging comments come out of the talks with Iran. In our view, oil is very expensive, climbing to current heights faster than the economy can afford it. This rise is caused by geopolitical tensions around Russia, which acts as the world's largest energy exporter by a wide margin. Fears about the stability of future supply have so far outweighed any negatives, but it is still prudent to zero in on geopolitical influences over the medium to long term. And with that in mind, the oil price looks unsustainably high, vulnerable to a corrective pullback once the dust of military hardware settles. About 12 years ago, we saw a similar picture when oil prices recovered quickly. And then, the result was another round of global economic weakness, which also knocked down demand for commodities and forced regulators to postpone policy normalisation steps. Will it be like that now? Quite possibly, and then in the second half of the year, oil could turn sharply to correction and cause another shock for the economy. In recent weeks, significant factors are potentially capping price rises with increased drilling activity. Also, Russia will ramp up production as most of the wells are in areas with a harsh climate. Looking locally, we can see how quickly any declines in oil over the last three months are being bought out. In such an environment, oil could soon find itself in short squeeze territory, with short positions being forced to close due to rising prices. This mirrors what we saw in April 2020. It is difficult to predict the peak price level in such an environment. It would be an ideal market picture if the short squeeze occurred at the end of April on another major expiry, paying homage to events two years earlier. And ideally, if we saw a price return to the $112 area where the bear market in oil started in July 2014. But this is an idealised picture. The reality is likely to be less mathematically accurate, as so much is now tied to the actions and comments of policymakers.

Since December, sandbox has been trying to break the downtrend. As bulls attempt to break through, expect some profits to be booked as some targets lie nearby. Once above $4.72, expect $5.00 and $6.00 to be the following targets in the relief rally. Sandbox (SAND) price action is surfing on a wave of relief this morning as tensions between Russia, and the West start to ease on positive news. With that, investors have been falling over each other to get back into cryptocurrencies, and Sandbox price is set to break the longer-term red descending trendline, and downtrend since December last year. Some low-hanging fruit will be targeted in the breakthrough and could provide enough incentive for bulls to book partial profits and go for the ultimate goal of $6.00, holding 47% of gains. Sandbox bulls are in for 47% gains in the relief rally Sandbox price action is again hammering on the red descending trend line that originates from December last year and has been dictating the downtrend ever since. The renewed push comes from tailwinds that emerged overnight on some positive news around de-escalation in the situation between Russia and Ukraine. As the scene is set for a solid relief rally, expect to see some excellent (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/sandbox-tests-support-at-425-before-sand-test-prior-all-time-highs-202202112001) returns, beginning with some nice profits nearby as a good start. SAND bulls will have their eyes on $4.72 with the 55-day Simple Moving Average and an overall (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-dogecoin-sandbox-and-cardano-european-wrap-10-february-video-202202101133) pivotal level falling in line around the same area. Although this level is not far from the red descending trendline, it will still return around 16% of gains intraday. Bulls will have a good incentive to book profits midway but stay in the trade with more considerable profits gained when the price rises towards $5.00 and $6.00 – the next targets in this week’s relief rally. The trade has an excellent risk-return ratio and is the most viable (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/sandbox-price-bound-for-another-30-gains-as-sand-finds-support-202202101005) as we advance. SAND/USD daily chart Should German chancellor Scholz come out with some negative comments and ramp up the rhetoric of full-scale escalation of the tensions, expect (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/shiba-inu-to-enter-the-metaverse-and-challenge-axie-infinity-sandbox-and-decentraland-202202091718) a knee jerk reaction with a firm rejection or false break of the red descending trend line, trapping bulls and pushing them out of their positions as SAND price action collapses back towards $3.50. From there, another leg lower could follow towards $3.00, with the 200-day SMA coming in at around $2.85 and playing its part as a supportive element in the belief that a recovery is still possible. If the 200-day SMA is no match for the downward pressure, expect a break and further push towards $2.50 or $2.00.

WTI has pulled back sharply on Tuesday from Monday’s multi-year highs near $96.00 and is back in the $91.00s. Fears of an imminent Russian invasion into Ukraine have eased as Russia withdraws some troops, weighing on oil prices. Oil prices have pulled back sharply from Monday’s multi-year highs, with front-month WTI futures now trading back to the south of the $92.00 level, down about $3.0 per day and more than $4.0 below Monday’s multi-year highs near $96.00. Press reports about a withdrawal of troops on the Ukrainian border to their bases has spurred a rebound in risk appetite and reduction in demand for safe havens on Tuesday. Such flows could have further legs in wake of remarks from Russian President Vladimir Putin who just said that a decision on partial troop withdrawal had been taken. For oil, tentative signs of de-escalation have triggered profit-taking as geopolitical risk premia is reduced somewhat, though Western nations and NATO remain highly concerned that Russia maintains the option for a near-term attack. One theme to watch is that Russian President Vladimir Putin might imminently recognise the independence of the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics (LPR and DPR), both breakaway regions of Ukraine located in the East. Western officials have criticised Russia’s State Duma for voting in favour of the recognition, which would break the Minsk Agreement designed to implement a ceasefire in the Ukraine civil war. Geopolitical strategists fear that Russia might create a false pretext for military action against Ukraine by rekindling violence in the East, with a recognition of LPR and DPR independence a potential step in this direction. For now, WTI traders will remain on tenterhooks and trading conditions will remain choppy/headline-driven. Near-term WTI bears will likely eye an imminent test of an uptrend that has been supporting the price action for the whole of 2022 thus far in the $90.00s. A break below this could see oil prices swiftly move back under $90.00 and hit support in the form of last week’s lows in the mid-$88.00s. Aside from Eastern European geopolitics, oil traders will also be keeping an eye on upcoming private weekly US oil inventory data at 2130GMT, as well as indirect US/Iran nuclear negotiations, which continue to rumble on in the background.

  Gold continues to benefit from the market turmoil and has apparently forgotten about medium-term problems. Meanwhile, the rising USD and a hawkish Fed await confrontation. With financial markets whipsawing after every Russia-Ukraine headline, volatility has risen materially in recent days. With whispers of a Russian invasion on Feb. 16 (which I doubt will be realized), the game of hot potato has uplifted the precious metals market. However, as I noted on Feb. 14, while the developments are short-term bullish, the PMs’ medium-term fundamentals continue to decelerate. For example, while the general stock market remains concerned about a Russian invasion, U.S. Treasury yields rallied on Feb. 14. With risk-off sentiment often born in the bond market, the safety trade benefiting the PMs didn’t materialize in U.S. Treasuries. As a result, bond traders aren’t demonstrating the same level of fear. Please see below: Source: Investing.com Furthermore, while the potential conflict garners all of the attention, the fundamental issues that upended the PMs in 2021 remain unresolved. For example, with inflation surging, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Feb. 14 that “the last four [Consumer Price Index] reports taken in tandem have indicated that inflation is broadening and possibly accelerating in the U.S. economy.” “The inflation that we’re seeing is very bad for low- and moderate-income households,” he said. “People are unhappy, consumer confidence is declining. This is not a good situation. We have to reassure people that we’re going to defend our inflation target and we’re going to get back to 2%.” As a result, Bullard wants a 50 basis point rate hike in March, and four rate hikes by July. Please see below: Source: CNBC Likewise, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is much less hawkish than Bullard, she also supports a rate hike in March. Source: CNBC As a result, while the PMs can hide behind the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the short term, their medium-term fundamental outlooks are profoundly bearish. As mentioned, Bullard highlighted inflation’s impact on consumer confidence, and for a good reason. With the University of Michigan releasing its Consumer Sentiment Index on Feb. 11, the report revealed that Americans’ optimism sank to “its worst level in a decade, falling a stunning 8.2% from last month and 19.7% from last February.” Chief Economist, Richard Curtin said: “The recent declines have been driven by weakening personal financial prospects, largely due to rising inflation, less confidence in the government's economic policies, and the least favorable long term economic outlook in a decade.” “The impact of higher inflation on personal finances was spontaneously cited by one-third of all consumers, with nearly half of all consumers expecting declines in their inflation adjusted incomes during the year ahead.” Please see below: To that point, I’ve highlighted on numerous occasions that U.S. President Joe Biden’s re-election prospects often move inversely to inflation. With the dynamic still on full display, immediate action is needed to maintain his political survival. Please see below: To explain, the light blue line above tracks the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change in inflation, while the dark blue line above tracks Biden’s approval rating. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the U.S. President remains in a highly perilous position. Moreover, with U.S. midterm elections scheduled for Nov. 8, the Democrats can’t wait nine to 12 months for inflation to calm down. As a result, there is a lot at stake politically in the coming months. As further evidence, as inflation reduces real incomes and depresses consumer confidence, the Misery Index also hovers near crisis levels. Please see below: To explain, the blue line above tracks the Misery Index. For context, the index is calculated by subtracting the unemployment rate from the YoY percentage change in the headline CPI. In a nutshell, when inflation outperforms the unemployment rate (the blue line rises), it creates a stagflationary environment in America. To that point, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the Misery Index is approaching a level that coincided with the global financial crisis (GFC). As a result, reversing the trend is essential to avoid a U.S. recession. As such, with inflation still problematic and the writing largely on the wall, the market-implied probability of seven rate hikes by the Fed in 2022 is nearly 93% (as of Feb. 10). Please see below: Ironically, while consumers and the bond market fret over inflation, U.S. economic growth remains resilient. While I’ve been warning for months that a bullish U.S. economy is bearish for the PMs, continued strength should turn hawkish expectations into hawkish realities. To that point, the chart above shows that futures traders expect the U.S. Federal Funds Rate to hit 1.75% in 2022 (versus 0.08% now). However, Michael Darda, Chief Economist at MKM Partners, expects the Fed’s overnight lending rate to hit 3.5% before it’s all said and done. “We have this booming economy with high inflation and a rapid recovery in the labor market – much different relative to the last cycle,” he said. “The Fed is behind the curve this time. They are going to have to do more.”  Singing a similar tune, John Thorndike, co-head of asset allocation at GMO, told clients that “inflation is now here, [but] the narrative is that inflation goes away and markets tend to struggle with change. It is more likely than not that real yields and policy rates need to move above inflation during this cycle.” The bottom line? While the Russia-Ukraine drama distracts the PMs from the fundamental realities that confront them over the medium term, their outlooks remain profoundly bearish. Moreover, while I’ve noted on numerous occasions that the algorithms will enhance momentum in either direction, their influence wanes materially as time passes. As such, while headline risk is material in the short-term, history shows that technicals and fundamentals reign supreme over longer time horizons. Thus, while the recent flare-up is an unfortunate event that hurts our short position, the medium-term developments that led to our bearish outlook continue to strengthen. In conclusion, the PMs rallied on Feb. 14, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the primary driver moving the financial markets. However, while the PMs will ride the wave as far as it takes them, they ignored that the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields also rallied. Moreover, with Fed officials ramping up the hawkish rhetoric, the PMs' fundamental outlook is more bearish now than it was in 2021 (if we exclude the Russia-Ukraine implications). As a result, while the timeline may have been delayed, lower lows should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks in the coming months. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 refused further downside yesterday, and while credit markets didn‘t move much, rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight. For now, the war drums took the limelight away, but don‘t count on gold, silver or oil correcting significantly and lastingly. Cryptos are supporting the return of risk-on as the touted war just isn‘t happening either today or tomorrow, and market participants are dialing back the panicky bets. That‘s why Treasuries and tech movements are so key these days – copper trading shows that we‘re in for paring back of the fire sales. I can‘t call it a full fledged stock market reversal, not yet. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Pause but more likely a rebound, is what comes next for S&P 500. Closing above the 200-day moving average is possible, but more is needed for a trend reversal in this correction. Credit Markets Credit markets moderated their pace of decline, and there‘s no risk-on posture apparent yet. We may be though nearing the point of credit market reprieve – as much as that‘s compatible with rate raising cycle. Gold, Silver and Miners Miners and gold are benefiting from the tensions, but they‘ll just as easily give up some of these gains next. What‘s important though, is the continued trend of making higher highs and higher lows. Crude Oil Crude oil looks also likely to lose some of the prior safe haven bid, but similarly to precious metals, the trend is higher, and corrections are more or less eagerly bought. Only should the Fed‘s actions harm the real economy, would oil prices meaningfully decline. Copper Copper is rebounding, but still remains trading in a not too hot fashion – the red metal is still trailing behind other commodities significantly. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos deciding to go higher, is a positive sign for stocks as well – the volume looks to be noticeable enough at the close later today to lend the upswing credibility. Summary S&P 500 bulls have the opportunity today, but the market remains as headline sensitive as everything else. Treasuries stabilizing or even moving higher while funds flow out of the dollar, that would be a bullish confirmation – and the same goes for precious metals not getting hammered, but finding a decent floor. The point is that war jitters calming down when Russia doesn‘t take the bait, makes assets to continue with their prior trends and focus, which is Fed and tightening. The bets on 50bp rate hike in Mar went down recently, and when they start rising again, it would make sense to deploy more capital – including into oil above $90, give or take a buck. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  Analysts' 2022 forecasts for the gold market are not overwhelmingly enthusiastic – they see it flat. However, maybe the opposite should be expected. The LBMA has recently published its annual precious metals forecast survey. In general, the report is neutral about gold in 2022. On average, the analysts forecast gold prices to be broadly flat this year compared to the year. The average gold price in 2021 was $1,799, and it is expected to rise merely $3 to $1,802. How boring! However, as the table below shows, the forecasts for other precious metals are much more bearish, especially for palladium. The headline numbers are the averages of 34 analysts’ forecasts. The greatest bears see the average price of gold as low as $1.630, while the lowest low – at $1,500. Meanwhile, the biggest bulls expect the average price of gold to be $1,965, while the highest high is expected to be $2.280. The three most important drivers of precious metals prices’ performance this year are the Fed’s monetary policy, inflation, and equity market performance. This is a huge change compared to last year, when analysts considered geopolitical factors, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the pace of economic recovery to be much more important. I agree this time, of course, as I always believed that macroeconomic factors are more relevant to the long-term trend in the gold market than geopolitical drivers. Generally, the pick-up in inflation, which will keep real interest rates in negative territory, is seen as a tailwind for gold. Some analysts also expect the greenback to depreciate as the global economic recovery gathers steam, which would also be supportive of gold prices. Meanwhile, normalization of monetary policy is considered the greatest headwind for the yellow metal, as the Fed’s tightening cycle will raise the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, the markets have probably already priced the interest rate hikes in, so gold doesn’t have to suffer during the tightening cycle. Last time, the price of gold began to rise after the liftoff of the federal funds rate. The analysts surveyed by the LBMA also doubt the central banks’ ability to raise interest rates as high as needed to crush inflation. Instead, they are expected to stay behind the inflation curve. This is because the forecasted tightening cycle could be too difficult for the asset market and indebted economy to stomach, so it will be moderate and short-lived, just like last time.   Implications for Gold What does the LBMA annual forecast survey predicts for the yellow metal? The report is neutral, probably because gold remains under the influence of opposite forces, which makes forecasting really challenging this year. Gold has been recently in a sideways trend, so it’s somewhat natural to expect simply more of the same, i.e., the flat market. Actually, the pundits always forecast more of the same. For example, the previous edition of the survey was bullish, as 2020 was a great year for gold. Thus, the analysts’ 2021 average forecast for the price of gold was $1,973.8, almost $200 above the actual level. Hence, please take the survey with a pinch of salt. OK, the analysts don’t predict a literally flat market. The forecasts concerned averages, but some experts see the first half of the year as more bullish than the second, while others, vice versa. I’d rather include myself in the latter group, as my view is that the expectations of Fed tightening will continue to exert downward pressure on gold prices in the coming weeks. However, the hawkish expectations have probably gone a little too far. At some point this year, they will be adjusted, as it becomes clear that the Fed will be forced to reduce the pace of its tightening or even reverse its stance in order to calm the market and avoid the next economic crisis. Such an adjustment will be positive for gold prices, especially since it might occur amid still high inflation, but gold bulls should remember that there is still a long way to go before that happens. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Britain's consumer price index fell 0.1% in January, not as sharply as analysts had expected; they were expecting an average fall of 0.2%. Year over year inflation reached 5.5%, a new record since March 1992. There are plenty of signs that peak inflation is near, but the big question is how quickly price growth will return to its 2% target and what effort it will take from the Bank of England. Among signs of a cooling inflation outlook we highlight the second month of slowing producer prices to 13.6% yoy in January against 13.9% and 15.2% in the previous two months. This is an early indicator which allows us to expect less pressure from commodity prices on producers further down the line, which will cool consumer inflation in the coming months. Among the early indicators of inflation around the world is also the Chinese producer price index, which noted a slowdown in January to 9.1% from 10.3% a month earlier and a peak of 13.5% in October. The publication of the UK inflation accelerated the rise in the pound, sending GBPUSD above 1.3570.

Cryptocurrencies rose on Tuesday on the back of strengthening stock indices and falling protective assets like gold, the yen, and treasuries. Bitcoin started its rise before the news about Russia and Ukraine hit the wires and sparked risk-on sentiments. Technical factors may have influenced the first cryptocurrency's strengthening, with BTC pushing back from its 50-day moving average, which has been acting as a support level for the past week. Russia has proposed allowing cryptocurrency mining in specific regions and imposing taxes on the conversion of crypto assets into fiat and is making progress in testing the digital rouble with the first interbank transfers. Bitcoin rose on Tuesday to its highest level in the past week (+4.4%), ending the day around $44,100, where it is trading on Wednesday morning. Ethereum jumped 7.3% on Tuesday, settling at $3100, while other leading altcoins from the top 10 also added: from 1.7% (XRP) to 12% (Avalanche). Overnight, crypto market capitalisation rose 2% to $1.98 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap estimates. Since early January, the market has not been consistently above the 2 trillion mark, and consolidation above could be an essential signal for bulls to move from observation to active buying. Since the end of January, there has been a notable uptrend support line that can be drawn through the local lows, which sets up optimism in the short term. The two largest cryptocurrencies, BTC and ETH, are attempting to consolidate above their 50-day averages, which previously signalled the end of a bearish phase. This was primarily made possible by optimism on Wall Street, where investors continue to buy out drawdowns. Altcoins showed outperformance, which led to a 0.3 percentage point decline in the Bitcoin Dominance Index to 40.4%. The Fear & Greed Index climbed from 46 to 51, moving into the Neutral from the Fear territory.

EURUSD bounces off support The US dollar retreats as the Fed’s half-point hike in March remains uncertain. The euro’s break above the daily resistance at 1.1480 boosted buyers’ confidence after a sell-off in January. It bounced off 1.1280 at the base of the recent bullish breakout. The support also is right next to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (1.1265) making it an area of congestion. A close above the intermediate resistance (1.1370) would attract more buying interest. Then an extension above 1.1490 may fuel a rally towards 1.1600. GBPUSD awaits breakout The sterling holds well as Britain’s wage growth beats expectations in December. The current rebound came under pressure in the supply zone around 1.3660 which was the origin of a sharp drop in late January. An overbought RSI led to some profit-taking but the pound has found support above 1.3480. The bears’ failed attempts to push lower indicates strong demand. A bullish close above 1.3640 would lift offers towards last month’s high at 1.3750. The daily support at 1.3370 is a key floor in keeping the rally intact. XAUUSD seeks support Gold drifts lower on signs of de-escalation in Ukraine. A break above last November’s high at 1875 may have put the precious metal back on track. However, the rally ran out of steam in the short term with the RSI shooting into the overbought territory. The price is taking a breather and buyers may see a pullback as an opportunity to stake in. A drop below 1852 may wash out weak hands and deepen the correction towards 1830. 1880 is now a fresh resistance and its breach could propel bullion to last June’s high at 1910.

The Turkish lira has stabilised after the wild ride of December. Since the start of the year, the fluctuation of the lira formed a converging range with a centre of gravity at 13.50 in USDTRY and 15.40 in EURTRY. However, this lull is hardly a victory for the unorthodox monetary policy ideas being pursued by Turkey. Instead, market participants have turned their attention to developments in Russia and Ukraine, which has made Turkey, if not a haven, comparatively less dangerous for investors. Nevertheless, we see this lull as temporary, expecting the rate to move out of consolidation upwards, as Turkey's fight against inflation is weaker than necessary. Excessive monetary policy softness is further highlighted by monetary tightening worldwide, including in Europe, where central banks are moving to raise rates or roll back stimulus. The latest inflation estimates for January show consumer prices adding 50% and manufacturing prices almost doubling from the same month a year earlier. PPI is being pushed up by 70% devaluation of the national currency, plus a general rise in producer prices close to 10% in countries from China to the USA. Consumer prices have not yet fully absorbed the effects of the fall devaluation of the lira and promise to gain momentum in the coming months, continuing to undermine confidence in the national currency. An assessment of how inadequately soft Turkey's monetary policy is can be made by comparing the differential of inflation and the key rate. In Turkey, it is 35%, in Russia minus 1%, in Ukraine around 0% and in the UK 5%. Even in the US, where it is believed that the Fed has overlooked inflation and will now have to catch up with it through 7 0.25 point hikes this year, this differential is 7.25%, almost five times less than in Turkey. From all of this, there is a conclusion that the Turkish lira is heading upwards out of the consolidation range, i.e. a new round of currency decline is to be expected. However, this wave will likely not be as disastrous as it was in the final quarter of last year.

S&P 500 rebound goes on reflexively, but stormy clouds are gathering – I‘m looking for the bears to reassert themselves over the next couple of days latest. The credit markets posture is far from raging risk-on even though select commodities are recovering (what else to expect in a secular commodities bull) and precious metals suffered a modest setback (not a reversal though). Crypto recovery is nodding towards the risk-on upturn that is though likely to get checked soon.It‘s great that tech was the driver of yesterday‘s S&P 500 upswing, but for how long would it keep leadership now that attention is shifting back towards inflation. Yesterday I wrote that: (...) rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight.So far the stock market advance hasn‘t met a brick wall, but value upswing has been sold into (unlike tech‘s). Energy stocks lost, but are likely to come back – and the next microrotation might not be powerful enough to carry S&P 500 higher. Anyway without a HYG upswing, stock bulls are facing stiff headwinds.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 rebounded on low volume but that wouldn‘t be an issue in a healthy bull market – the trouble is that this 2022 price action isn‘t very healthy.Credit MarketsHYG didn‘t trade on a strong note, and the rise in yields continues almost unabated. This is what I meant yesterday by saying that we may be though nearing the point of credit market reprieve – as much as that‘s compatible with rate raising cycle.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals suffered a temporary setback – they easily gave up some of the safe haven gains, which isn‘t surprising. The bulls though haven‘t lost control, and that‘s key.Crude OilCrude oil dip was bought, and there wasn‘t much bearish conviction to start with. The general uptrend is likely to continue, and $90 appears likely to hold over the next few days definitely.CopperCopper is now in for some backing and filling, but managed to catch up with other commodities a little yesterday. The red metal remains range bound, but making good bullish progress.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are paring back yesterday‘s advance, and unless the mid Feb lows give, they‘re likely to muddle through with a modest bullish bias till the attention shifts to the Fed again.SummaryS&P 500 bulls‘ opportunity seems slipping away with each 1D or 4H candle, and I‘m not counting on the credit markets to ride to stocks‘ rescue. The commodities bull though is likely to carry on with little interference – and so does the precious metals bull as the yield curve keeps compressing. Slowdown in economic growth with rampant inflation and the realization that the Fed tightening hasn‘t had the effect, is awaiting, and would usher in strong gold and silver gains.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Binance Coin takes a small step back this morning due to some profit-taking.BNB bulls hold all the cards as the relief rally is not over yet.Expect a pop above $444-$452 with a profit target set at $480 for the moment.Binance Coin (BNB) price action shot back above the red descending trend line yesterday with a massive relief rally that lifted market sentiment. With that, the downtrend looks to be broken, and an uptrend could be on the cards if bulls can take out the $444-$452 resistance barrier with a triple top formation, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the longer-term pivotal level all coincide in this region. Once through there, expect the next stage to be set for a move towards $480 with the 200-day SMA coming in, returning another 10%.Binance Coin set for the second phase in the recovery rallyBinance Coin is undergoing some profit-taking this morning after the solid relief rally from yesterday (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-decentraland-binance-dogecoin-asian-wrap-16-feb-video-202202160214) that has lifted market sentiment and saw some decent inflows into markets. On the way up, bulls hit some resistance from the double top from February 08 and January 21 and, in the process, made it a triple top resistance. This, together with the already known $452 and the 55-day SMA coming in at $445, makes it a substantial (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/binance-coin-must-break-out-above-this-level-before-bnb-can-retest-660-202202152150) barrier that will need to be broken to prove that the relief rally still has plenty of juice to go.Expect thus some profit-taking today, a little bit on the back foot with $419 as support to bounce off back to $445. Some more positive signals coming from the Russia-Ukraine developments could be the needed additional catalyst to push through this difficult barrier. The next target is set at $480, with the 200-day SMA falling in line with that considerable number, resulting in probably the same profit-taking pattern (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/dogecoin-and-shiba-inu-price-climbs-as-binance-smart-chain-whales-accumulate-meme-coins-202202151719) as BNB price action shows today.BNB/USD daily chartOverall, the US keeps claiming that the situation in Central-Europe remains precarious and could see an escalation (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-bitcoin-binance-coin-and-decentraland-european-wrap-11-february-202202111055) any time now. Once those headlines hit the wires, expect the whole cryptocurrency space to collapse and for there to be a massive pullback from investors, with BNB price falling back initially to $389. Depending on the severity of the attacks, another push lower towards $340 would be the logical outcome and result in BNB price shedding 22% of its value.

Today we’re looking at the GBPUSD as buyers continue to hold firm and now only face one level of resistance both they can get the new uptrend back on track. Fundamentally a few things remain on the radar. Russian/Ukrainian Situation, we’ve seen recently that fair ups are supporting the USD and any new escalations could drive the USD higher which would hurt the GBPUSD. T-note yields are another ongoing factor but yields have settled for now but new highs could once again hurt risk pairs including the GBPUSD. US inflation and UK inflation. US inflation and rate rises could be starting to be factored in unless we see a new spike. The minutes didn’t do much to drive the USD this week, while a new rise in UK inflation definitely supported the GBP yesterday giving the GBPUSD a nice boost in Wednesday’s session. With that in mind let’s look at some of the technicals we’re watching on the GBPUSD chart. For now, we see price stuck in consolidation with support and resistance currently holding price. Overall we can see two new uptrends in play, on the short and medium times. Price also sits above all three moving averages and the short term MAs are trading above the 86 MA. While support remains firm we will continue to look for buyers to push at a new continuation. The key to this is a break above the two resistance points. This could confirm a new breakout and start suggesting that the medium-term trend could continue. A break below support and a move back to the new Med-trend would be a small warning sign and further evidence would be required before thinking that the trend is going to continue. GBPUSD D1 Chart The post Forex News: GBPUSD setting up for a continuation? appeared first on Eightcap.

Tesla bounces strongly on Tuesday as risk assets surge. TSLA stock gains just over 5% on Tuesday. Geopolitical tensions falling help risk appetites return. Tesla (TSLA) shares bounced strongly on Tuesday, eventually closing up over 5% in a strong day for equities. The stock market was buoyed by news of some Russian deployments returning to their bases. Russia then appeared to confirm this as hopes grew for a diplomatic solution. This saw an obvious bounce in equities (https://www.fxstreet.com/markets/equities) with the strongest names being those that were previously the weakest. Understandable, but is this gain sustainable? NATO this morning has said it sees no sign of Russian troops pulling back from the Ukraine border. NATO has said it sees Russian troop numbers still growing along the Russian-Ukraine border. This news (https://www.fxstreet.com/news) still has legs. Volatility has been high as a result and will likely continue that way. Tesla Stock News The latest quarterly SEC filings have provided much information to pore over. In particular, Tesla, they do note some hedge fund selling. This is not too surprising given the record highs TSLA stock pushed on to before Elon Musk sold a stake. Benzinga reports that the latest filing shows Ray D'Alio's Bridgewater cutting its stake in Tesla. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest was regularly top-slicing her firm's stake in Tesla recently. CNBC also reported yesterday that hedge fund Greenlight Capital had made a bearish bet on Tesla shares. Greenlight, according to the report, has been a long time Tesla bear. Apart from those snippets though, macroeconomic factors are the main driver of the Tesla stock price currently. Electric vehicle stocks have not been a strong sector so far in 2022 as growth, in general, is out of favor with investors. This has led to steep falls in other names such as Rivian (RIVN) and Lucid (LCID). Both are at a much earlier stage of development than Tesla (TSLA) and on that basis, we would favor Tesla (TSLA) over them. But we must stress we would ideally avoid the sector entirely until perhaps the second quarter. Once markets have adjusted to the prospect of higher rates, some high-growth stocks may benefit. historical in a Fed (https://www.fxstreet.com/macroeconomics/central-banks/fed) hiking cycle the main indices do advance but growth sectors struggle. Rivian so far is down 36% year to date, Lucid is down 24% while Tesla is the outperformer, down 12% for 2022. Tesla Stock Forecast We remain in the chop zone between the two key levels of $945 and $886. Breaking $945 should lead to a move toward $1,063. That would still be consistent with the longer-term bearish trend. Nothing goes down or up in a straight line. TSLA is unlikely to be able to fight the current overpowering macroeconomic backdrop of rising rates (https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/rates) hitting high growth stocks. But breaking $945 is still significant in the short term and should see some fresh momentum. While $886 is significant, the 200-day moving average at $826 should have our real attention on the downside. Tesla has not closed below this level in over 6 months, so that would be significant and again lead to a fresh influx of momentum. Just this time though, it would be selling momentum. Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily Short-term swing traders should note the volume momentum behind moves. Once volume dries up, Tesla tends to fall off intraday. From the 15-minute chart below, we have an opening gap from Tuesday down to $880. This is short-term support, but a break will see the bottom of Monday's range at $840 tested. Tesla (TSLA) 15-minute chart

  The Natural Gas flight has passed its first goal and is on its way to the second target. Here is a map showing the route to Natgas’ new destination. In today’s edition, I will provide some updates on recent market developments for Natural Gas futures (NGF22) following my last projections published on Friday, Feb. 11, for which the stop was also updated on Wednesday. Trade Plan We all love it when a trade plan comes together! The market has to cope with stronger demand to fuel increasing industrial activity after being surprised by the warming mid-February weather forecast. Therefore, you can see that the rebounding floor (support) provided was ideal for the Henry Hub, which is also supported by unyielding global demand for US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to turn its momentum back up. The recommended objective of $4.442 was almost hit yesterday. However, it was achieved this morning (during the European session) and the $4.818 level is now the next goal. As I explained in more detail in my last risk-management-related article to secure profits, my recommended stop, which was located just below the $ 3.629 level (below one-month previous swing low), was recently lifted up around the $3.886 level (around breakeven). Now it could be lifted one more time up to 4.180, which corresponds to the 50% distance between the initial entry and target 1. By doing so, the second half of the trade would become optimally managed. Alternatively, you can also use an Average True Range (ATR) multiple to determine a different level (above breakeven) that may better suit your trading style. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Now, let’s zoom into the 4H chart to observe the recent price action all around the abovementioned levels of our trade plan: DHenry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) That’s all folks for today. Happy trading! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The Ukrainian crisis is not likely to recede into the background anytime soon. Promising Russian statements about the withdrawal of troops are refuted by the West and Ukraine, near where the exercises are taking place. There was also a series of accusations and denials about the shootout in Donbas in the morning, which triggered impulsive selling of risky assets. The local momentum of the markets' decline was less than what we saw on Friday following Biden's statements about Russia's impending attack on Ukraine. Still, the latest news clearly shows that we should not hope for smooth and quick exhaustion of the conflict and a favourable resolution in the coming days. So far, however, there are more signals that Eastern European politicians still want a diplomatic, not forceful solution, which forms a modest reduction in the pull towards security. The Fed was also on the side of the stock market bulls yesterday. The published minutes of the January meeting were not as hawkish as investors had expected. The FOMC at the end of last month did not consider a 50-point rate hike in March and did not talk about the need for seven hikes this year. Then we had the labour market report, which showed strong growth in employment and wages, and even later came frightening figures about inflation accelerating to 40-year highs. Yesterday the retail sales figures were added to it. Americans bought harder than expected in January, and some observers attribute that to a rush of demand due to inflation fears and a spike in auto and apparel prices. The Fed might revise its view to a more hawkish one after bullish reports, but the markets did breathe a sigh of relief, managing to pull the S&P500 and Russell2000 into the green at the end of Wednesday. Meanwhile, the S&P500 and Dow Jones continue to struggle behind the 200-day moving average, with no victory signals for the bulls or the bears in this local battle. Investors and traders should pay close attention to this struggle, as a sharp pullback to one side or the other could set the direction for the days and weeks ahead.

Bitcoin ended Wednesday with symbolic gains, gaining 0.1% to stay around $44,100. Ethereum rose 1.4%, and the other leading altcoins in the top ten also showed mostly upward momentum, from 0.3% (Binance Coin) to 5.5% (Avalanche). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, grew by 0.9% over the day, to $2.09 trillion. Altcoins were in high demand, which led to a decrease in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.3%, to 40.1%. The Fear and Greed Index rose another 1 point to 52 (neutral). For the second time this month, Bitcoin's growth is interrupted by attempts to gain a foothold above $45,000. In the event of a pullback, traders should monitor the dynamics near 42,000, where Bitcoin found support at the beginning of the week. Consolidation between 42,000 and 45,000 can be regarded as a positive signal, as it will consolidate confidence that the downtrend of recent months will not resume after a pause. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has launched an audit of the US representative office of the Binance crypto exchange. The Canadian authorities intend to track transactions in cryptocurrencies and block bank accounts in order to cut off funding for the Freedom Convoy truckers' protest movement. Twitter has added support for Ethereum addresses to the money transfer service within its application. The Bank of Russia plans to start the second stage of testing the cryptoruble in autumn. On Thursday morning, the markets and bitcoin experienced a downward momentum due to news of shelling in Ukraine. Cryptocurrencies reacted impulsively as a risk asset, but last week's example shows that they can also act as safe havens, as some investors may try to save capital using Bitcoin, Ethereum and a number of other large altcoins.

Bitcoin collapsed on Thursday, the most in almost a month amid sales of risky assets. BTC lost 7.7%, ending the day near $40,700. Ethereum fell 7.7%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten also fell, from 5.4% (Binance Coin) to 8.5% (Terra). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, sank by 7.3%, to $1.94 trillion. Bitcoin sold more actively than altcoins, which led to a decrease in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.3%, to 39.8%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index plummeted 22 points to 30, returning to a state of fear. Bitcoin has clearly lost its function as a defensive asset lately, showing almost no correlation with gold, which was in high demand on Wednesday and Thursday. The technical picture looks bearish in the short term. Bitcoin did not hold above the 50-day average and fell under previous local lows. It is quite possible that from the end of January to mid-February, we saw a pullback after the momentum of the decline, and now a new step down is being formed. JPMorgan Bank indicated that crypto assets would be negatively affected by tightening US monetary policy. This approach puts crypto on a par with growth companies, which have also come under increased pressure amid rising market interest rates in recent weeks. Charles Munger, an associate of legendary investor Warren Buffett, likened cryptocurrencies to a "venereal disease" and praised China for banning them. According to him, cryptocurrencies are used by hackers, criminals, as well as those who evade taxes.

Well, so far, we’ve seen another choppy week with rallies and sell-offs. The week started on a positive note as buyers regained control after a weak end to the previous week. Buying jumped on Tuesday and peaked on Wednesday. At this point, you would have been justified in thinking, could we be set to start testing last week’s highs? Out of the top 10, AVAX and BNB did manage to test or break last week’s highs, but most failed to reach those levels before momentum swung hard back to the seller camp on Thursday. For now, Crypto looks to be locked into the risk response to the current crisis seen in Eastern Europe between Ukraine and Russia. As tensions increased, sellers hammered into crypto coins, knocking most of the week’s gains. Bitcoin and Ethereum lost just over 8% yesterday, and AVAX traded as much as 9% lower before closing off lows. At this stage, the crypto top 10 and 25 indexes sit just in the red after giving back just over 8% in gains. For us, the picture looks quite clear moving forward. Tensions in Europe, but we think markets should recover. If we see tensions continue or sadly if the situation escalates into all-out conflict, we would think that coins could see heavy seller pressure. Our focus is on Ethereum weekly chart this week as we look at this week’s fade, lining up with the current LH under bearish MAs. For now, supply looks firm from 3080 and if we see a lower close this week, that set up a new move back to the 2430 area that also lines up with previous support at the 86MA? We do think that for this to happen, there might need to be further fundamental influence to maintain the selling. The daily shows support at 2860, so if geopolitical tensions remain the same or ease, a hold at that area could set up a new move to retest this week’s highs and start putting pressure on the weekly bearish picture. The post Your Crypto Focus: 19th – 25th February appeared first on Eightcap.

Thanks to Fed minutes, the S&P 500 closed modestly up, but could have taken the stronger credit markets cue. Instead, the upswing was sold into – the selling pressure is there, and neither value nor tech took the opportunity to rise, even against the backdrop of a weakening dollar. That‘s quite telling – the stock market correction hasn‘t run its course yet, and whatever progress the bulls make, is being countered convincingly. Precious metals adored the combo of yields and dollar turning down – and reacted with the miners‘ outperformance. The silver to copper ratio is basing, and the white metal looks to have better short-term prospects than the red one. Still in the headline sensitive environment we‘re in, gold would be stronger than silver until inflation is recognized for what it is. If there‘s one thing that the aftermath of Fed minutes showed, it‘s that the commodities superbull is alive and well, and that precious metals likewise are acting very positively in this tightening cycle. Suffice to say that gold has a track record of turning up once the rate hikes finally start… Excellent, the portfolio is positioned accordingly. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 rebound is getting suspect, and should stocks close on a weak note today, it‘s clear that today‘s wobbling Philly Fed Manufacturing Index won‘t be balanced out by the succession of Fed speakers – the signs of real economy headwinds are here. Credit Markets HYG upswing could have had broader repercussions, and it‘s quite telling it didn‘t. The risk-on turn would likely be sold into, with consequences. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals suffered a temporary setback only indeed – I‘m looking for the gains to continue as the miners outperformance just can‘t be overlooked. Crude Oil Crude oil dipped some more, and the dip was again bought. Given the late session wavering, I‘m looking for some more sideways and volatile trading ahead before the upswing reasserts itself. Copper Copper continues trading sideways, but with bullish undertones. More consolidation before another upswing attempt is probable. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are turning down, but still haven‘t broken either way out of the current range. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are sending a message of caution. Summary S&P 500 bulls‘ opportunity seems increasingly slipping away given that the buyers couldn‘t defend gains after Fed minutes release. The upturn in credit markets is likely to prove of fleeting shelf life, and would exert downward pressure upon stocks. As I wrote yesterday (and talked extensively within today‘s article chart captions), the commodities bull is likely to carry on with little interference – and so would the precious metals bull as the yield curve keeps compressing, and the beginning of rate hikes would mark further headwinds for the real economy at a time of persistent inflation that could be perhaps brought down to 4-5% official rate late this year (which would leave the mainstream wondering why it just isn‘t transitory somewhat more – what an irony). The Fed‘s tools to be employed are simply insufficient to break the inflation‘s back, that‘s it. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

AUDUSD attempts to break out The Australian dollar finds support from a low jobless rate in January. The pair has previously hit resistance in the supply zone around 0.7250. This is a daily resistance from the sell-off in late January. Then a recovery above 0.7180 suggests solid buying pressure before a bearish mood could take hold again. A break above the key hurdle could initiate a bullish reversal above this year’s peak (0.7310). Otherwise, a prolonged consolidation may test the demand area between 0.7100 and 0.7150. NZDUSD tests resistance The New Zealand dollar climbed higher as the RBNZ can lift its cash rates next week. Price action came under pressure on the 30-day moving average (0.6730). However, strong support at 0.6590 builds a case for a potential reversal. A break above 0.6690 is an encouraging sign leaving 0.6730 as the last obstacle before a bullish extension. A broader rally would bring the kiwi back to January’s high at 0.6890. In the meantime, an overbought RSI caused a brief pullback towards 0.6660. SPX 500 consolidates The S&P 500 struggles as the Russia-Ukraine crisis persists. The previous rebound has met stiff selling pressure over the 30-day moving average (4590). A pullback has sent the RSI into the oversold territory, triggering some buyers’ interest in racking up the bargain. The rebound is still valid as long as the index stays above the critical area of 4280. A break above 4480 may extend gains to the double top at 4590 which is an important resistance. 4360 is the immediate support if the sideways action lingers.

  Gold prices declined in 2021 and the prospects for 2022 are not impressive as well. However, the yellow metal’s strategic relevance remains high. Last month, the World Gold Council published two interesting reports about gold. The first one is the latest edition of Gold Demand Trends, which summarizes the entire last year. Gold supply decreased 1%, while gold demand rose 10% in 2021. Despite these trends, the price of gold declined by around 4%, which – for me – undermines the validity of the data presented by the WGC. I mean here that the relevance of some categories of gold demand (jewelry demand, technological demand, the central bank’s purchases) for the price formation is somewhat limited. The most important driver for gold prices is investment demand. Unsurprisingly, this category plunged 43% in 2021, driven by large ETF outlfows. According to the report, “gold drew direction chiefly from inflation and interest rate expectations in 2021,” although it seems that rising rates outweighed inflationary concerns. As the chart below shows, the interest rates increased significantly last year. For example, 10-year Treasury yields rose 60 basis points. As a result, the opportunity costs for holding gold moved up, triggering an outflow of gold holdings from the ETF. As the rise in interest rates is likely to continue in 2022 because of the hawkish stance of the Fed, gold investment may struggle this year as well. The end of quantitative easing and the start of quantitative tightening may add to the downward pressure on gold prices. However, there are some bullish caveats here. First, gold has remained resilient in January, despite the hawkish FOMC meeting. Second, the Fed’s tightening cycle could be detrimental to the US stock market and the overall, highly indebted economy, which could be supportive of gold prices. Third, as the report points out, “gold has historically outperformed in the months following the onset of a US Fed tightening cycle”. The second publication released by the WGC last month was “The Relevance of Gold as a Strategic Asset 2022”. The main thesis of the report is that gold is a strategic asset, complementary to equities and bonds, that enhances investment portfolios’ performance. This is because gold is “a store of wealth and a hedge against systemic risk, currency depreciation, and inflation.” It is also “highly liquid, no one’s liability, carries no credit risk, and is scarce, historically preserving its value over time.” Gold is believed to be a great source of return, as its price has increased by an average of nearly 11% per year since 1971, according to the WGC. Gold can also provide liquidity, as the gold market is highly liquid. As the report points out, “physical gold holdings by investors and central banks are worth approximately $4.9 trillion, with an additional $1.2 trillion in open interest through derivatives traded on exchanges or the over-the-counter (OTC) market.” Last but not least, gold is an excellent portfolio diversifier, as it is negatively correlated with risk assets, and – importantly – this negative correlation increases as these assets sell off. Hence, adding gold to a portfolio could diversify it, improving its risk-adjusted return, and also provide liquidity to meet liabilities in times of market stress. The WGC’s analysis suggests that investors should consider adding between 4% and 15% of gold to the portfolio, but personally, I would cap this share at 10%.   Implications for Gold What do the recent WGC reports imply for the gold market? Well, one thing is that adding some gold to the investment portfolio would probably be a smart move. After all, gold serves the role of both a safe-haven asset and an insurance against tail risks. It’s nice to be insured. However, investing in gold is something different, as gold may be either in a bullish or bearish trend. You should never confuse these two motives behind owning gold! Sometimes it’s good to own gold for both insurance and investment reasons, but not always. When it comes to 2022, investment demand for gold may continue to be under downward pressure amid rising interest rates. However, there are also some bullish forces at work, which could intensify later this year. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Bitcoin price gets caught in a bearish triangle as tensions in Ukraine flare up again. Ethereum price returns to pivotal support, money repatriation goes into the second day. XRP price in pennant ready for a bearish breakout under the current sentiment. Cryptocurrencies are on the back foot as investors are getting worried about the escalating situation between Ukraine and Russia, as more reports come in from shots in the Donbas region near Luhansk. As the situation does not seem to de-escalate, investors are pulling their money out of what was believed to be the start of a solid and longer-term relief rally that is stalling at the moment. With more downside pressure to come, expect all significant cryptocurrencies to fall back to supportive pivotal levels. Bitcoin price falls into a bearish triangle, set to dip back below $40,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price is getting battered on Thursday after a fade on Wednesday that could still be attributed to some short-term profit-taking. The extension of the falls seems to confirm that sentiment is yet again dipping below zero towards risk-off. Investors pulling out their funds preemptively is reflected with the sharp decline in the Relative Strength Index, where the sell-side demand is outpacing the buy-side demand. In this context, Bitcoin price will remain under pressure for the rest of the week and could be set to slip below $40,000 in the coming days as the situation in Ukraine is set to deteriorate again, potentially inflicting further damage to the market mood. BTC price sees bulls unable to hold price action above $44,088 and in the process is forming a descending trend line that, together with the base at $41,756, is forming a bearish triangle. Expect Bitcoin valuation to decline further as the tensions around Luhansk increase by the hour. Once the $41,756 support is broken, the road is open for a nosedive towards $39,780 with the $40,000 psychological level broken yet again to the downside. BTC/USD daily chart A hail mary could be provided by the 55-day Simple Moving Average at $42,340, which already provided support on February 9 and February 15. With that move, a sudden breakthrough in the peace talks could become the needed catalyst to improve the situation and dislocate Bitcoin price action from the drag of the geopolitical news that is weighing. Bitcoin would see the demand on the buy-side blow up and see a big pop above $44,088. Ethereum bulls are breaking their jaws on the 55-day SMA as the price fades further Ethereum (ETH) price is getting crushed against the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $3,143, with bulls unfit to push and try to close price action above it. After three failed attempts in a row, it is becoming clear that the bullish support is wearing thin as, on Tuesday, the daily candle closed above there, and even if the next day ETH price opened above again, it closed below the 55-day SMA. On Wednesday, finally, both the open and the closing price were below the 55-day SMA. This proves that sentiment has shifted in just three trading days and looks set to fade further away from the 55-day SMA on Friday. Expect going forward in the next coming hours that bulls will get squeezed against the wall at $3,018 with both a pivotal level and the $3,000 marker a few dollars below there. As tensions mount, expect some more negative headlines, a breach in defense of the bulls with even the monthly pivot at $2,929 getting involved in the crosshairs. Depending on the severity and the further deterioration of the political situation in Ukraine and the correction in the stock markets, it is possible to see a nosedive towards $2,695. ETH/USD daily chart Global market sentiment is hanging on the lips of Ukraine and the geopolitical situation. With that, it is clear that once the situation gets resolved or de-escalates, markets can shift 180 degrees in a matter of seconds. That same rule applies to cryptocurrencies where Ethereum could pop back above the 55-day SMA and even set sail for $3,391, breaking the high of February and flirting with new highs for 2022. Bulls joining the rally will want to keep a close eye and be mindful of the RSI, as that would start to flirt with being overbought and, from there on, limiting any further big moves in the hours or next trading days to come. Ethereum short squeeze could trigger a spike to $4,000 XRP price set to lose 10% of market value as headline news breaks down relief rally Ripple (XRP) price is stuck in a pennant and is close to a breakout that looks set to be a bearish one. As global markets are continuing the fade from Wednesday, XRP price is breaking below the recent low and sees bears hammering down on the ascending side of the pennant. As more negative headlines cross the wires, expect this to add ammunition for bears to continue and start breaking the pennant to the downside. XRP price will look for support on the next support at hand, which comes in at $0.78, and depending on the severity of the news flow, that level should hold again as it did on February 14. If that is not the caseany further downside will be cut short by the double bottom around $0.75 from February 12 and 13 and the 55-day SMA coming in at or around that area. With that move, the RSI will be triggering some "oversold" red flags and see bears booking profit. XRP/USD daily chart A false bearish breakout could easily see bears trapped on entering on the break to the downside out of the pennant as bulls go in for the squeeze. That would mean that price shoots up towards $0.88 and takes out this week's high. Bears would be forced to change sides and join the buy-side demand to close their losing positions, adding to even more demand and possibly hitting $0.90 in the process. XRP set to explode towards $1.00, bulls hopeful over SEC vs Ripple case

GGPI Stock has rallied after a Superbowl ad. GGPI stock surges another 4% on Wednesday as momentum remains high. GGPI may struggle as markets turn negative and growth stocks struggle to hold gains. Gores Guggenheim (GGPI) stock is probably more commonly referred to as Polestar stock now that the SPAC will take electric vehicle maker Polestar public this year. The deal is due to complete some time in the first half of 2022. Polestar is an electric vehicle maker backed by Volvo and Chinese company Geely. So what is different about this one compared to the others? Gores Guggenheim Stock News Polestar looks merely like Volvo's EV division. We know this is not the case as Volvo has its hybrid and EV models planned. However, the companies certainly have strong links. Rivian (RIVN) went public in a blaze of hype and publicity due largely to its links to Amazon (AMZN) and Ford (F). Both companies had stakes in Rivian. However, from what we know, Rivian will have to build out its manufacturing and distribution network. It will not piggyback on Ford for this. Polestar uses the Volvo service network in the UK, and Polestar will utilize Volvo's South Carolina plant to manufacture Polestar models in the US. Previously, Polestar said it will have its showrooms in the US but use Volvo for servicing. Polestar will look to do as much sales work as possible online and use Volvo then for manufacturing and servicing. This gives it an obvious advantage over LCID and RIVN. Gores Guggenheim Stock Forecast On Wednesday, the stock spiked again, closing nearly 5% higher at $12.02. The company has been in charge since the Superbowl ad brought more attention to the stock and the cars. Both seem well received. Now GGPI stock has ramped up to a strong resistance area. Above $12 and as high as $12.36 is the previous spike high from December. This will be tough to break given that high risk stocks are likely to suffer as we close out the week. Geopolitical events are dominating and high growth names are still not favored. SPACs generally hold $10 cash until the deal goes through, so this is obvious support. The best strategy with SPAC trading is to try and buy as close to $10 as possible. GGPI 1-day chart

While US indices plunged yesterday as the situation near the Ukraine-Russia border remained tense with the S & P 500 dropping 2.12%, Nasdaq falling 2.88% and Dow Jones pulling back 1.78%, reports of shelling in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts in eastern Ukraine continue. However, the US President will host a meeting with leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Poland, Italy, Romania, UK, EU and NATO today which along with an announced meeting between US secretary Blinken and Russia's Lavrov next week has helped moods stabilize slightly. Oil prices pulled back noticeably with Brent dropping below $90 and gold gave up some gains after benefiting from the significant risk-off moods seen this week which saw it reach the highest level since mid 2021. With a lack of data releases and with a long weekend ahead in the US, we could be seeing significant volatility across markets as investors and traders adjust their positions to limit risk exposure and in anticipation of a potential escalation of the conflict. On the other hand, any sign of easing of tensions has been received positively from markets and further indication could lead to a return of risk appetite across asset classes, which could favor stocks as well as the cryptocurrency market, which have struggled to maintain gains lately. UK retail sales point to continued post pandemic recovery Today's retail sales figures continue to provide encouraging signs as the economy recovers from the pandemic and as businesses as well as consumers begin to adjust to rising inflation. While these figures indicated a rise of retail sales volumes by 1.9% in January 2022 following a fall of 4.0% in December 2021, an interesting thing to note is that the proportion of retail sales online fell to 25.3% in January 2022, its lowest level since March 2020 (22.7%). Ultimately, it remains to be seen how the Bank of England's policy will facilitate this trend moving forward in order to avoid a stagnation situation and as rising prices across sectors continue to add pressure.

UK retail sales added 1.9% in January, following a dip of 4.0% a month earlier. By the same month a year earlier, the increase was 9.1%, as January 2021 saw a sharp tightening of the lockdown and the vaccination campaign had only just started. The data came out slightly better than expected, supporting purchases of British currency against the dollar, but remains very volatile due to restrictions in previous months. Sales generally remained above multi-year trend levels, which is a good signal of the economy’s health. After the financial crisis from 2009 to 2016, there was a long period when sales were below the long-term trend line and were one of the obstacles why the Bank of England could not go ahead with a rate hike. These days, the need to suppress inflation is combined with the ability to do so thanks to strong consumer demand and the labour market. Sales were also boosted by pent-up demand for services and goods that were in restricted supply during the pandemic. This process may gain momentum in the coming months, painting a more colourful picture of consumer activity, but could lead to disappointment in the second half of the year. The Bank of England should keep a close eye on the coming economic releases to avoid repeating the mistakes of the ECB, which rushed through a rate hike in May 2009, undermining the economic recovery. On Friday morning, the British pound is testing the highs of February, rising to 1.3630. A rise to 1.3680 may be a development in the current momentum. However, a jump even higher would reflect a break of the downtrend since last June, anchoring GBPUSD above the 200-day average and setting the pair up to test previous highs.

Gold and oil, former beneficiaries of geopolitical tensions late last week, have gone their separate ways, with the former rising 2.4% and the latter losing 5% since the start of this week. Brent crude rolled back below $90 and, at one point on Friday, was losing 2.3% to $89, despite still worrying reports of tensions around Ukraine and Russia. It has fallen below the local support of the past ten days and is now just one step away from a decline since the start of the month. While geopolitics remains a joker capable of playing, either way, the macroeconomic picture is working to cool the oil price. US commercial oil inventories rose last week against a seasonally typical decline. As a result, inventories are now 10.9% lower than a year earlier, although it was -15% in mid-January. Production stagnated at 11.6m b/d, but at the end of last week, there was an increase in the number of operating oil rigs from 497 to 516. New data will be released later this evening. Probably, we will see more evidence that producers have stepped up production, convinced of the strength of demand and record profits in many years at their disposal. Locally, the activation of extractive companies is playing into the price pullback from current levels. However, it is a factor in slowing price growth in the longer term, but not a failure. The vector of monetary policy is also worth paying attention to. Rising rates often derail speculative growth in oil. We saw the last two examples on this theme in 2014-2015 when oil collapsed by 75%, and in 2018, it fell by 45%. After those hard lessons, OPEC+ has worked much more closely to meet quotas, so we are talking about a correction rather than a new bear market for oil. Speaking of a local correction, we assume a pullback in the Brent price to the $85 area. That is the peak area in October last year and September 2018 and close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from December to mid-February. Deeper drawdowns are also possible if monetary tightening coincides with geopolitical détente and slowing demand. In that case, Brent might briefly correct towards $80. Positive signals on the Iran deal are also factors holding oil back. An agreement with Iran would signal an easing of some of the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and add around 1% to the global energy system, allowing the resulting shortfall to be digested and a smooth return to restocking for the world.

As the global markets move away from recent concerns of war and Fed rate hikes, I believe both Small and Mid Cap indexes are uniquely positioned to potentially surge 7% to 11%, or more, from recent lows. My analysis suggests both the Small and Mid Cap Indexes may have moved excessively lower over the past 30+ trading days. They may be poised for a unique opportunity and a substantial price rally if the global markets continue to move away from extreme risk events. As the US Fed and global central banks position to combat inflation while war tensions build near Ukraine, I believe the US Small and Mid Cap Indexes are uniquely undervalued and ready for a potential move higher. The recent recovery in the US major indexes may be evidence of strong bullish price momentum underlying the US Major Indexes. I believe that foreign capital is moving into various US assets to avoid foreign market/currency risks. The US Small and Mid Cap Indexes seem like perfect opportunities for this capital deployment. IWM May Rally 12 to 14% - Targeting $238 to $240 This Weekly IWM chart highlights a support level near $191.00 and a recent Three River Morning Star bottom reversal pattern near $194.40. It also highlights the previous range-based trading and dual Pennant/Flag setups using shaded BLUE and YELLOW Rectangles. I believe IWM has a solid potential to rally back to near the $220 level before finding resistance (+7.25%). If this bullish price momentum continues, IWM may rally to levels above $238 to $240. The global markets may have recently focused too much on the US Fed and Global Central Banks while missing the underlying strength of the US economy. Consumers are still spending, and the US Fed has yet to make any substantial adjustments to rates or balance sheets. These recent lows may provide an excellent opportunity for traders to capitalize on a “reversion price move” soon. The only way to navigate and capitalize on these price swings is to stay focused on Technical Analysis and strategic opportunities for trades when they occur. WHAT TRADING STRATEGIES WILL HELP YOU TO NAVIGATE CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, setups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase. This may start a revaluation phase as global traders identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern drive traders/investors into Metals. I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

The FED has made it very clear that it will raise its benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate. This could have severe consequences and even lead to a financial crisis. They are too far behind the curve and will be labeled a major policy error in the future, most likely. They have put themselves in a situation where they are now their own hostage. They need more leadership to describe what a soft landing is going to look like. They have been too slow to act, and now they are going too fast. The “Powell Put” has now been put out to pasture. We believe that the FED will make more rate hikes than they have announced. Goldman Sachs thinks there will be four 25-basis-point increases in the federal funds rate in 2022. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said, “he wouldn’t be surprised if there were even more interest rate hikes than that in 2022. There’s a pretty good chance there will be more than four. There could be six or seven. I grew up in a world where Paul Volcker raised his rates 200 basis points on a Saturday night.” Mr. James Bullard of the St. Louis FED spoke out in an arrogant tone that aggressive action is now required. The markets translated this to mean that the FED was going to call an emergency meeting as soon as this coming week to hike interest rates by no less than 50 basis points. This sent interest rates soaring and stock prices plummeting. WARNING: More Downside To Come Uncertainty abounds regarding the path of inflation and new FED policy. This has created a landscape of continued strong periods of distribution in the equity markets. If there are any bounces, they should be used to sell ‘risk assets’. This has been one of the worst starts to a calendar year in the history of the stock and bond markets. Chart Source: Zero Hedge Last Thursday, the reported inflation rate increased by 7.7 percent, the highest in forty years. Stocks tumble as red-hot inflation print pressures technology shares. Markets didn’t like this, which immediately moved them down. Bears are in control of the market, which can be observed from Friday’s trading session. The U.S. 10-year yield rose above 2% for the first time since August 2019 amid a broad Treasury-market selloff. It was driven by expectations for quicker FED interest-rate hikes to contain faster than predicted inflation. It takes at least two to three years to have any material impact on the economy. One sector is currently doing well, which is the oil sector. Cycle's analysis is applied to find the best stocks to invest in and the best sectors. The next sector we are monitoring is Gold/Silver. Crude oil prices are staying strong. There are a lot of geopolitical factors in play here. I think there's a risk premium on oil right now because of Russia. What The Heck is CPI? The Consumer Price Index, CPI, is the measure of changes in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services. This is one of the most frequently used statistics for identifying periods of inflation in households. Consumer Price Index Summary. Last Thursday, the inflation figures were released, confirming that everything is getting more expensive. It is up 7.5 percent versus last year. Mortgage rates are starting to rise. If you plan to buy a new home, this is the time to do it. These historically low interest rates will not last long. Should I Invest In Gold Today? Owning gold acts as a hedge against inflation as well as a good portfolio diversifier as it is a great store of value. Gold also provides financial cover during geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. Gold has historically been an excellent hedge against inflation because its price tends to rise when the cost-of-living increases. Conclusion: It seems the stock market may be on its last leg here. Big money flow has been coming out of the large-cap stocks while commodities have been rising. Commodities are typically one of the last assets to rally before the stock market top and start a bear market. I see all the signs, but we must wait for the price to confirm before taking action. We have seen this setup before in 2015/2016, also in 2018, and the market recovered and rallied dramatically from those levels.  What Trading Strategies Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

I've been paying close attention to Bonds as the global markets react to rising inflation and global central bank moves recently. The US Federal Reserve has yet to take any actions to raise rates, but we all know it will come at some point. Longer-term bonds are acting as if these risks are much more subdued than many traders/investors believe – which has me questioning if global central banks have overplayed the stimulus game? Why would traditional safe-haven assets fail to act in a manner that reflects current market risks like they would typically do? Why have precious metals failed to reflect these risks also properly? Is there something brewing in traders' minds that are muting or mitigating these traditional safe-haven assets? Bonds Continue To Slide After COVID Rally This table, reflecting the recent downward trend in Bonds, highlights the weakened safe-haven tendencies. These assets would generally present with rampant inflation and the possibility of multiple Fed rate increases. (Source: SeekingAlpha.com) Increasing uncertainty throughout the globe, and as inflation climbs to the highest levels since the mid-1970s and 1980s, – “where's the beef?” (to reference a 1980s Wendy's commercial phrase). This TLT Weekly chart shows how risks climbed when COVID hit in February 2020. Yet, take a look at how price has consolidated below $156 and has continued to trend lower over the past six months. After a brief move higher, to levels near the $147 to $155 level, TLT has moved decidedly lower over the past 6+ months. This downward price trend illustrates the diminishing fear levels as traders piled into the post-COVID rally phase. This move suggests traders believe inflation may be temporary or that the US Federal Reserve has room to raise rates without disrupting the global economy. I think the current premise and price trend in TLT vastly underestimates the amount of disruption a series of Fed rate hikes would cause the international markets. The US Federal Reserve will likely consider all options before taking an aggressive move to raise rates. Additionally, the US Fed may decide to allow foreign central banks to move more aggressively to raise rates while it decides to take a more measured approach to inflation. The key to future rate increases is how supply chains open up and how consumers continue to engage in economic activities. Any sudden shift by consumers, or further disruptions in supply for manufacturing and consumer staples/discretionary items, could prompt the Fed into taking aggressive actions. From where the Fed Funds Rates currently are, a move above 0.50% would reflect a +500% rate increase. This may prompt some type of “pop” in certain asset bubbles. (Source: St. Louis Fed) Traders should stay keenly focused on market risks and Bond levels throughout 2022 into 2023 as any sudden shift away from current trends could spell trouble. Right now, Bonds are pricing in minimal risks – which may be a mistake. The market dynamics and trends are changing from what we have experienced over the past 40 years for stocks and bonds. The 60/40 portfolio is costing you money now, and bonds can’t keep up with inflation and are more or less yield-less. The only way to navigate the financial markets safely, no matter the direction, is through technical analysis. By following assets and money flows, we identify trend changes and move our capital into whatever index, sector, industry, bond, commodity, country, and even currency ETF. By following the money, you become part of new emerging trends and can profit during weak stock or bond conditions. What Trading Strategies Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase. This may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

While the reality is hopefully not quite that bad, as Traders and Investors, we need to consider our silent partner, the "Taxman," and how to minimize his cut of our profits. Having a "tax problem" can be a good "problem" to have. But we're not obligated to pay any more in taxes than tax laws and regulations in our jurisdiction require. As George Harrison of the Beatles famously penned… “Let me tell you how it will beThere's one for you, nineteen for me'Cause I'm the taxmanYeah, I'm the taxman” Are there strategies we can use to significantly reduce our tax bill, even to as low as $0? You bet! Before we dive in, here are a few caveats… We're not tax advisors. You absolutely should review any taxation questions, strategies, or issues with a tax professional that is well-versed in your tax jurisdiction and familiar with your circumstances. Much of the following pertains to those in the USA. But there's some information here that may be useful to those outside the USA as well. Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Tax strategies can range from simple to complex. Some have rock-solid legal standing, while some of the more aggressive strategies may invite unwelcome scrutiny from tax authorities. Personally, I prefer simple strategies that are easy to maintain and not subject to “debate” with the IRS. Lastly, laws and tax codes are subject to change. You need to continually educate yourself and have a good tax advisor to stay on top of any changes. Traders Tax-Free Accounts PayPal Founder Peter Thiel famously used the Roth IRA to turn a small investment in Founder’s shares into more than $5 billion tax-free. Google it. It’s a fantastic testimony to the power of the Roth IRA. Hands-down, the Roth IRA (first created in 1997) is a simple and powerful tool for legally avoiding taxes. Why? Because any gains in the account are not taxed. Not now, not ever! Reporting individual trades on your tax return in a Roth IRA is super simple. Why? Because none is required! Maintenance and reporting for a Roth IRA couldn’t be easier. The tradeoff is that - like a Regular IRA - you generally cannot withdraw funds tax-free until age 59 ½. (There are ways around that with a 72t Plan, for example.) And contributions to a Roth IRA are not tax-deductible like they are with a Regular IRA. If you have Earned Income in the United States, you should seriously consider maximizing contributions to a Roth IRA. Even if you currently don’t have Earned Income, but you have a regular IRA, there are ways to convert all or part of those funds into a Roth IRA should you choose to do so. Typically, you’d have to pay taxes on the converted funds. But once that’s done, the taxes are paid in full. This is commonly known as the “Backdoor Roth IRA,” which is also a way around the income-based annual contribution limits for a Roth. Tax-Deferred Accounts Second-best to the Roth IRA is a Regular IRA. Contributions are tax-deductible in the year made. Capital gains in the account are not taxed until funds are withdrawn. Distributions after age 59 ½ are taxed as regular income when they are made. It used to be that the investment vehicles and strategies that could be used in both Regular and Roth IRAs were somewhat limited. Now there is an extensive range of asset classes and strategies permitted. For example, as an options trader, almost any defined risk strategy is permissible in either a Regular or Roth IRA at most options brokers. Special Tax Treatment Section 1256 contracts were created to eliminate a tax avoidance where contracts were sold near year-end to show a loss, and like-kind were repurchased in the following tax year. Section 1256 contract rules were created to require “marked-to-market” at year-end whether the contracts are sold or not. The big side benefit of Section 1256 contracts is the 60/40 tax treatment, where 60% of gains are treated as long-term capital gains and taxed at a lower rate. The other 40% are treated as short-term capital gains and taxed as ordinary income. If you’re trading in a taxable account, it can be very beneficial to choose Section 1256 contracts where those happen to fit into your strategy. Section 1256 contracts include futures, options on futures, and certain indexes like SPX and VIX and options on those indexes. Be sure to verify Section 1256 treatment and report with your broker and tax advisor. State Taxes An additional layer of the tax burden is at the state level. One way to avoid that is to live in one of the states with no income tax for individuals. These are Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming. You generally must file a federal tax return in those states. Keep in mind that the “tax-free” states tend to have higher excise, sales, and property taxes. You should consider your overall tax burden and affordability ranking if you’re thinking about moving to one of those states. Some traders live in multiple states and claim their “residency” in a tax-free state. That can get a little tricky as rules and enforcement will vary. You’ll need to keep good records of your time spent in the tax-free state and be sure to comply with all regulations for both states. Tax Splitting Regardless of where you live, it can be possible, legal, and common to create a separate entity, such as a C Corporation, that is domiciled in a tax-free state such as Nevada. Instead of capital gains bumping you into a higher marginal tax bracket as an individual, you could “tax split” and have the entity pay taxes on its gains at a lower Federal level and with no state taxes due. Typically, there are tax implications in your home state if you take income out of the entity for your use as an individual. But be aware that you can create and control a separate entity from yourself that has its own P/L for taxation purposes and that can reduce the overall tax burden. Summary Roth IRA.  If it’s available to you, think about maximizing it.  Outside of that, consider tax-deferred accounts, Section 1256, income splitting, and tax-free residency strategies as may be advantageous to your situation. Now That You Know About Lessening Your Tax Burden, Read On To Learn More About Options Trading Every day on Options Trading Signals, we do defined risk trades that protect us from black swan events 24/7. Many may think that is what stop losses are for. Well, remember the markets are only open about 1/3 of the hours in a day. Therefore, a stop loss only protects you for 1/3 of each day. Stocks can gap up or down. With options, you are always protected because we do defined risk in a spread. We cover with multiple legs, which are always on once you own.    If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service. The head Options Trading Specialist Brian Benson, who has been trading options for almost 20 years, sends out real live trade alerts on actual trades, such as TSLA and NVDA, with real money. Ready to subscribe, click here:  TheTechnicalTraders.com. Enjoy your day!

  Gold and the USDX reacted vigorously to the worrisome news concerning Eastern Europe. However, only the latter can be calm about its medium-term future. As geopolitical tensions uplift gold, silver, and mining stocks, they’re in rally mode each time a doom-and-gloom headline surfaces. However, while the ‘will they or won’t they’ saga commands investors’ attention, the USD Index continues to behave rationally. For example, while volatility has increased recently, the dollar basket has held firm. To explain, I wrote on Feb. 17: The USD Index is at its medium-term support line. All previous moves to / slightly below it were then followed by rallies, sometimes really big rallies, so we’re likely to see something like that once again. Such a rally would be the prefect trigger for the triangle-vertex-based reversal in gold and the following slide. Please see below: Furthermore, the USD Index’s recent pullback was far from a surprise. For example, I highlighted on numerous occasions that the greenback is nearing its weekly rising resistance line, and the price action has unfolded as I expected. Moreover, while overbought conditions resulted in a short-term breather, history shows that the USD Index eventually catches its second wind. To explain, I previously wrote: I marked additional situations on the chart below with orange rectangles – these were the recent cases when the RSI based on the USD Index moved from very low levels to or above 70. In all three previous cases, there was some corrective downswing after the initial part of the decline, but once it was over – and the RSI declined somewhat – the big rally returned and the USD Index moved to new highs. As a result, with the USD Index showcasing a reliable history of profound comebacks, higher highs should materialize over the medium term. Please see below: Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices (or those of silver) here is likely not a good idea. Continuing the theme, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie, and with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the wind remains at the dollar’s back. Furthermore, dollar bears often miss the forest through the trees: with the USD Index’s long-term breakout gaining steam, the implications of the chart below are profound. While very few analysts cite the material impact (when was the last time you saw the USDX chart starting in 1985 anywhere else?), the USD Index has been sending bullish signals for years. Please see below: The bottom line? With my initial 2021 target of 94.5 already hit, the ~98-101 target is likely to be reached over the medium term (and perhaps quite soon). Mind, though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’s absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone. The EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters. In conclusion, the financial markets remain on Russia-Ukraine watch. While gold, silver, mining stocks, and the USD Index whipsaw on the news, the technical and fundamental backdrops support higher prices for the latter, not the former. Thus, while geopolitical tensions are always short-term bullish for the precious metals, the rush is often short-lived. As a result, the trios’ downtrends that began in late 2020 will likely resurface once the headline-driven market returns to normal. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  Not only won’t inflation end soon, it’s likely to remain high. Whether gold will be able to take advantage of it will depend, among others, on the Fed. Do you sometimes ask yourself when this will all end? I don’t mean the universe, nor our lives, nor even this year (c’mon, guys, it has just started!). I mean, of course, inflation. If only you weren’t in a coma last year, you would have probably noticed that prices had been surging recently. For instance, America finished the year with a shocking CPI annual rate of 7.1%, the highest since June 1982, as the chart below shows. Now, the key question is how much higher inflation could rise, or how persistent it could be. The consensus is that we will see a peak this year and subsequent cooling down, but to still elevated levels. This is the view I also hold. However, would I bet my collection of precious metals on it? I don’t know, as inflation could surprise us again, just as it did to most of the economists (but not me) last year. The risk is clearly to the upside. As always in economics, it’s a matter of supply and demand. There is even a joke that all you need to turn a parrot into an economist is to teach it to say ‘supply’ and ‘demand’. Funny, huh? When it comes to the demand side, both the money supply growth and the evolution of personal saving rate implies some cooling down of inflation rate. Please take a look at the chart below. As you can see, the broad money supply peaked in February 2021. Assuming a one-year lag between the money supply and price level, inflation rate should reach its peak somewhere in the first quarter of this year. There is one important caveat here: the pace of money supply growth has not returned to the pre-pandemic level, but it stabilized at about 13%, double the rate seen at the end of 2019. Inflation was then more or less at the Fed’s target of 2%, so without constraining money supply growth, the US central bank couldn’t beat inflation. As the chart above also shows, the personal saving rate has returned to the pre-pandemic level of 7-8%. It means that the bulk of pent-up demand has already materialized, which should also help to ease inflation in the future. However, not all of the ‘forced savings’ have already entered the market. Thus, personal consumption expenditures are likely to be elevated for some time, contributing to boosted inflation. Regarding supply factors, although some bottlenecks have eased, the disruptions have not been fully resolved. The spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus and regional lockdowns in China could prolong the imbalances between booming demand and constrained supply. Other contributors to high inflation are rising producer prices, increasing house prices and rents, strong inflation expectations (see the chart below), and labor shortages combined with fast wage growth. The bottom line is that, all things considered – in particular high level of demand, continued supply issues, and de-anchored inflation expectations – I forecast another year of elevated inflation, but probably not as high as in 2021. After reaching a peak in a few months, the inflation rate could ease to, let’s say, around 4% in December, if we are lucky. Importantly, the moderate bond yields also suggest that inflation will ease somewhat later in 2022. What does it mean for the gold market? Well, I don’t have good news for the gold bulls. Gold loves high and accelerating inflation the most. Indeed, as the chart below shows, gold peaks coincided historically with inflation heights. The most famous example is the inflation peak in early 1980, when gold ended its impressive rally and entered into a long bearish trend. The 2011 top also happened around the local inflationary peak. The only exception was the 2005 peak in inflation, when gold didn’t care and continued its bullish trend. However, this was partially possible thanks to the decline in the US dollar, which seems unlikely to repeat in the current macroeconomic environment, in which the Fed is clearly more hawkish than the ECB or other major central banks. The relatively strong greenback won’t help gold shine. Surely, disinflation may turn out to be transitory and inflation may increase again several months later. Lower inflation implies a less aggressive Fed, which should be supportive of gold prices. However, investors should remember that the US central bank will normalize its monetary policy no matter the inflation rate. Since the Great Recession, inflation has been moderate, but the Fed has tightened its stance eventually, nevertheless. Hence, gold may experience a harsh moment when inflation peaks. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

WTI fell into the $89.00s on Friday and current trades about $2.0 down on the day. Technical selling, hope for a diplomatic solution to Ukraine crisis and talk of an Iran/US deal nearing soon weigh on oil. Technical selling, hopes that a high-level US/Russia meeting next week might solve the Ukraine stand-off and bets that US sanctions on Iranian oil exports will soon end amid momentum towards reviving the 2015 nuclear pact weighed on oil on Friday. Front-month WTI futures broke below a key upwards trendline that had been supporting the price action since the start of the year and slumped to the mid-$89.00s per barrel, where they now trade lower by more than $2.0 on the day. Bears will be eyeing an imminent test of the next key area of support in the $88.50 region in the form of last week’s lows. Despite news that pro-Russia separatist leaders in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in Ukraine’s Eastern Donbas region ordered an immediate evacuation of local civilians into Russia as fighting in the region escalates, traders hoped diplomacy could yet prevail. As Russia continue to amass troops on Ukraine’s doorstep, the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will meet face-to-face next week, reportedly under the condition that there will not be a Russian invasion. Separately, OPEC+ sources on Friday said the group thinks a US/Iran deal to revive the 2015 nuclear pact, thus removing US restrictions on Iranian oil exports and allowing for the return of 1.3M barrels per day to global markets, is near. Despite the Iran news and near-term bearish technical picture following the break below key 2022 uptrend support, traders said markets should remain reasonably well support near highs amid continued expectations for tight global oil market conditions.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the recent turnaround in speculator sentiment for the Sugar futures bets. The speculative net position in the Sugar futures has fallen for three straight weeks and in ten out of the past twelve weeks. Overall, the net position has now decreased by a total of -170,063 net contracts over the past twelve weeks. Sugar bullish bets had been on a strong uptrend from 2020 through 2021 with speculator bullish bets reaching a recent high of +302,267 net contracts on August 17th. Since then, contracts and sugar prices have cooled off and have started lower with the trend accelerating over the past few months. The slipping sentiment has pushed the current speculator standing for Sugar to the lowest level of the past ninety-one weeks, dating back to May of 2020. The soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Coffee (3,558 contracts), Soybeans (7,002 contracts), Soybean Oil (1,285 contracts), Soybean Meal (3,284 contracts), Live Cattle (3,758 contracts), Lean Hogs (690 contracts) and Cocoa (6,361 contracts). The soft commodities that saw lower bets this week were Corn (-5,110 contracts), Sugar (-4,527 contracts), Cotton (-3,487 contracts) and Wheat (-2,268 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,122,758 39 348,093 8 -392,000 80 43,907 77 Gold 558,645 35 213,613 56 -238,875 45 25,262 36 Silver 156,968 23 23,556 46 -36,348 63 12,792 17 Copper 210,089 34 30,692 64 -39,421 32 8,729 76 Palladium 8,358 9 -1,000 15 903 83 97 50 Platinum 59,897 22 10,132 16 -16,020 86 5,888 44 Natural Gas 1,098,101 0 -131,424 39 99,903 62 31,521 59 Brent 214,404 51 -26,325 73 22,279 27 4,046 64 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 856,917 58 216,732 84 -186,438 22 -30,294 20 Corn 1,607,591 39 414,492 83 -374,969 19 -39,523 20 Coffee 254,992 25 70,425 100 -75,230 1 4,805 22 Sugar 871,213 11 74,563 52 -90,388 51 15,825 27 Wheat 402,232 35 -5,846 42 10,013 51 -4,167 82   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 414,492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,110 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 419,602 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.8 45.0 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.0 68.3 11.6 – Net Position: 414,492 -374,969 -39,523 – Gross Longs: 510,734 723,086 146,972 – Gross Shorts: 96,242 1,098,055 186,495 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 83.0 18.5 20.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.0 1.1 13.3   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 74,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,527 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,090 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.0 56.2 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.4 66.6 7.2 – Net Position: 74,563 -90,388 15,825 – Gross Longs: 182,861 489,754 78,130 – Gross Shorts: 108,298 580,142 62,305 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 51.0 27.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.2 19.4 -4.9   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 70,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,558 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,867 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.4 41.5 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.7 71.0 2.7 – Net Position: 70,425 -75,230 4,805 – Gross Longs: 79,961 105,790 11,577 – Gross Shorts: 9,536 181,020 6,772 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 99.7 0.9 21.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.5 -13.7 11.2   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 216,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,002 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 209,730 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.5 43.8 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.2 65.6 10.2 – Net Position: 216,732 -186,438 -30,294 – Gross Longs: 261,666 375,676 56,797 – Gross Shorts: 44,934 562,114 87,091 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.8 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 83.9 22.0 19.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.3 -22.2 14.2   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 67,320 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,285 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,035 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.4 46.8 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.3 66.0 6.4 – Net Position: 67,320 -80,652 13,332 – Gross Longs: 102,372 196,884 40,131 – Gross Shorts: 35,052 277,536 26,799 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.2 39.5 63.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.5 -12.4 26.9   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 109,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,284 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,260 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.4 43.8 11.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.0 74.1 5.6 – Net Position: 109,544 -135,761 26,217 – Gross Longs: 131,883 196,526 51,263 – Gross Shorts: 22,339 332,287 25,046 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.9 5.2 75.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.2 -7.0 7.4   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 83,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,758 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,809 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.3 36.9 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.8 56.5 13.2 – Net Position: 83,567 -69,675 -13,892 – Gross Longs: 132,481 130,961 32,844 – Gross Shorts: 48,914 200,636 46,736 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.1 50.5 53.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.9 -6.7 -8.7   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 67,332 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,642 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.7 32.3 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.6 52.3 12.0 – Net Position: 67,332 -56,167 -11,165 – Gross Longs: 113,909 90,422 22,524 – Gross Shorts: 46,577 146,589 33,689 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.1 24.6 31.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.9 -15.8 16.4   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 93,723 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,210 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.9 38.3 7.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.0 80.4 3.6 – Net Position: 93,723 -104,282 10,559 – Gross Longs: 106,081 94,792 19,508 – Gross Shorts: 12,358 199,074 8,949 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 82.4 17.0 79.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.4 2.8 -6.5   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 49,216 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,361 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,855 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.1 41.7 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.2 62.4 3.2 – Net Position: 49,216 -53,823 4,607 – Gross Longs: 86,191 108,555 12,975 – Gross Shorts: 36,975 162,378 8,368 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.2 30.8 60.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 39.0 -40.4 28.2   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,268 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,578 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.5 39.0 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.0 36.5 9.6 – Net Position: -5,846 10,013 -4,167 – Gross Longs: 106,622 156,858 34,592 – Gross Shorts: 112,468 146,845 38,759 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.0 50.6 81.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.5 3.7 29.4   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT energy data is the large decline in this week’s Natural Gas futures bets. The speculative net position in the Natural Gas futures dropped this week by -16,335 contracts which marks the largest one-week amount since September. Speculators had been reducing their bearish bets in previous weeks with decreases in bearish bets in five out of the previous six weeks before this week’s rise in bearish bets. Overall, the Natural Gas speculator positions are now at the most bearish standing of the past six weeks. Joining Natural Gas (-16,335 contracts) in falling this week were Brent Crude Oil (-2 contracts), WTI Crude Oil (-15,290 contracts), Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts), Gasoline (-156 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-4,573 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,122,758 39 348,093 8 -392,000 80 43,907 77 Gold 558,645 35 213,613 56 -238,875 45 25,262 36 Silver 156,968 23 23,556 46 -36,348 63 12,792 17 Copper 210,089 34 30,692 64 -39,421 32 8,729 76 Palladium 8,358 9 -1,000 15 903 83 97 50 Platinum 59,897 22 10,132 16 -16,020 86 5,888 44 Natural Gas 1,098,101 0 -131,424 39 99,903 62 31,521 59 Brent 214,404 51 -26,325 73 22,279 27 4,046 64 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 856,917 58 216,732 84 -186,438 22 -30,294 20 Corn 1,607,591 39 414,492 83 -374,969 19 -39,523 20 Coffee 254,992 25 70,425 100 -75,230 1 4,805 22 Sugar 871,213 11 74,563 52 -90,388 51 15,825 27 Wheat 402,232 35 -5,846 42 10,013 51 -4,167 82   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 348,093 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 363,383 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.6 36.1 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.2 54.6 2.8 – Net Position: 348,093 -392,000 43,907 – Gross Longs: 458,819 767,338 102,736 – Gross Shorts: 110,726 1,159,338 58,829 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.8 79.9 76.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.8 -8.1 9.6   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -26,325 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,323 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.6 47.7 4.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.9 37.3 2.8 – Net Position: -26,325 22,279 4,046 – Gross Longs: 37,767 102,255 10,006 – Gross Shorts: 64,092 79,976 5,960 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.6 26.7 63.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -27.4 26.7 -3.0   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -131,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,335 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -115,089 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.4 44.4 5.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.3 35.3 2.2 – Net Position: -131,424 99,903 31,521 – Gross Longs: 234,678 487,701 55,830 – Gross Shorts: 366,102 387,798 24,309 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.1 62.4 58.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.2 -3.2 -0.7   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 62,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,752 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.9 50.7 6.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.3 68.8 3.8 – Net Position: 62,596 -72,742 10,146 – Gross Longs: 108,035 203,940 25,503 – Gross Shorts: 45,439 276,682 15,357 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.8 64.2 72.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.7 -2.3 24.0   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9 – Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979 – Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210 – Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -17,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,468 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 61.7 34.5 1.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 96.1 1.3 0.2 – Net Position: -17,041 16,437 604 – Gross Longs: 30,521 17,060 700 – Gross Shorts: 47,562 623 96 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 27.4 to 1 7.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.3 56.5 40.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.0 8.4 -59.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the gains in the Copper futures bets. The speculative net position in the Copper futures rose this week by the largest one-week amount of the past seventeen weeks. Copper speculator positions have risen now for two straight weeks and in four out of the past five weeks as well. Spec bullish bets had previously fallen to an eighty-one week low for Copper on December 21st but have rebounded since then with gains in six out of the next eight weeks. This positive sentiment has helped push the speculator positioning to this week to the highest bullish level of the past fifteen weeks. Joining Copper (11,837 contracts) with rising positions this week were Gold (26,907 contracts), Silver (4,257 contracts) and Palladium (230 contracts) while Platinum (-1,627 contracts) saw lower speculator net contracts for the week. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,122,758 39 348,093 8 -392,000 80 43,907 77 Gold 558,645 35 213,613 56 -238,875 45 25,262 36 Silver 156,968 23 23,556 46 -36,348 63 12,792 17 Copper 210,089 34 30,692 64 -39,421 32 8,729 76 Palladium 8,358 9 -1,000 15 903 83 97 50 Platinum 59,897 22 10,132 16 -16,020 86 5,888 44 Natural Gas 1,098,101 0 -131,424 39 99,903 62 31,521 59 Brent 214,404 51 -26,325 73 22,279 27 4,046 64 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 856,917 58 216,732 84 -186,438 22 -30,294 20 Corn 1,607,591 39 414,492 83 -374,969 19 -39,523 20 Coffee 254,992 25 70,425 100 -75,230 1 4,805 22 Sugar 871,213 11 74,563 52 -90,388 51 15,825 27 Wheat 402,232 35 -5,846 42 10,013 51 -4,167 82   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 213,613 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 26,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 186,706 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 56.1 22.7 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.8 65.5 3.8 – Net Position: 213,613 -238,875 25,262 – Gross Longs: 313,269 126,837 46,689 – Gross Shorts: 99,656 365,712 21,427 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.1 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.7 44.7 35.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.7 -0.4 -2.4   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 23,556 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,299 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.3 35.9 16.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.2 59.1 7.8 – Net Position: 23,556 -36,348 12,792 – Gross Longs: 56,911 56,394 25,107 – Gross Shorts: 33,355 92,742 12,315 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.8 63.2 17.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 7.5 -1.5   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 30,692 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11,837 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,855 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.2 38.6 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.6 57.3 5.5 – Net Position: 30,692 -39,421 8,729 – Gross Longs: 84,415 81,004 20,249 – Gross Shorts: 53,723 120,425 11,520 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 64.5 32.4 75.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.9 -10.0 21.1   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 10,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,627 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,759 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 47.1 35.4 14.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.2 62.1 4.6 – Net Position: 10,132 -16,020 5,888 – Gross Longs: 28,217 21,179 8,661 – Gross Shorts: 18,085 37,199 2,773 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 3.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.3 86.1 44.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.9 -5.5 6.5   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 230 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,230 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.0 48.1 17.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 36.9 37.3 16.0 – Net Position: -1,000 903 97 – Gross Longs: 2,086 4,018 1,432 – Gross Shorts: 3,086 3,115 1,335 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.4 82.6 50.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.2 -13.2 14.7   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT bonds data is the continued rise in the Eurodollar bearish bets. The speculative position in the Eurodollar futures has been dropping sharply with higher bearish bets since flipping over from bullish to bearish in May of 2021. The Eurodollar futures are the largest futures market with open interest normally over 10 million contracts each week and are used to make a bet on short-term interest rates (3-month Libor). A decline in Eurodollar futures shows an increase in (deposit) interest rates while an increase in Eurodollar futures shows the opposite. In times of stress (Great Financial Crisis, Covid Crisis), Eurodollar futures have surged higher and in times of normalization, Eurodollar futures usually trend downward. The speculators Eurodollar positioning has been on a downtrend and is currently at the most bearish level of the past one hundred and sixty-six weeks, dating back to December 11th of 2018. Joining the Eurodollar (-256,945 contracts) in falling this week were the 2-Year Bond (-104,328 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (-30,140 contracts), Fed Funds (-6,129 contracts), 5-Year Bond (-59,036 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-14,287 contracts) while increasing bets for the week were seen in the 10-Year Bond (27,847 contracts) and the Long US Bond (8,180 contracts). Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index Eurodollar 10,998,807 45 -2,293,237 0 2,731,451 100 -438,214 8 FedFunds 1,999,560 72 22,521 42 -3,214 59 -19,307 14 2-Year 2,207,292 17 -115,758 59 184,249 60 -68,491 15 Long T-Bond 1,239,190 56 -24,845 84 42,910 34 -18,065 38 10-Year 4,123,745 73 -174,063 45 436,449 77 -262,386 18 5-Year 4,084,291 52 -191,415 48 418,890 69 -227,475 19   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,293,237 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -256,945 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,036,292 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.6 75.3 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.5 50.5 7.9 – Net Position: -2,293,237 2,731,451 -438,214 – Gross Longs: 510,859 8,287,260 430,172 – Gross Shorts: 2,804,096 5,555,809 868,386 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 8.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.0 10.7 -11.9   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 22,521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,650 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.7 75.2 1.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.6 75.3 2.4 – Net Position: 22,521 -3,214 -19,307 – Gross Longs: 193,542 1,503,220 29,243 – Gross Shorts: 171,021 1,506,434 48,550 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.4 59.5 13.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.3 -12.5 -12.6   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -115,758 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -104,328 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,430 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.1 77.7 6.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.4 69.4 9.6 – Net Position: -115,758 184,249 -68,491 – Gross Longs: 289,318 1,715,204 142,310 – Gross Shorts: 405,076 1,530,955 210,801 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.9 60.1 14.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -31.9 34.4 0.2   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -191,415 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -59,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -132,379 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.7 79.5 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.4 69.2 12.1 – Net Position: -191,415 418,890 -227,475 – Gross Longs: 436,662 3,244,990 267,923 – Gross Shorts: 628,077 2,826,100 495,398 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.7 68.5 18.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 38.6 -31.5 8.6   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -174,063 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 27,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -201,910 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.8 73.7 7.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.0 63.1 14.0 – Net Position: -174,063 436,449 -262,386 – Gross Longs: 569,973 3,038,412 314,742 – Gross Shorts: 744,036 2,601,963 577,128 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.3 76.6 17.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.9 -9.8 -5.4   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 13,871 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30,140 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,011 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.8 73.5 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.9 64.5 18.4 – Net Position: 13,871 130,856 -144,727 – Gross Longs: 215,580 1,067,199 122,654 – Gross Shorts: 201,709 936,343 267,381 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.4 80.9 28.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -21.8 19.4 8.0   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -24,845 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,025 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.7 72.9 13.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.7 69.4 15.1 – Net Position: -24,845 42,910 -18,065 – Gross Longs: 133,138 902,892 169,162 – Gross Shorts: 157,983 859,982 187,227 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.5 33.8 38.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.9 5.0 -32.0   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -330,139 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -14,287 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -315,852 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.5 81.1 11.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.6 58.4 9.5 – Net Position: -330,139 298,631 31,508 – Gross Longs: 72,504 1,065,871 156,998 – Gross Shorts: 402,643 767,240 125,490 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.5 61.1 50.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -16.5 14.6 7.7   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the gains in the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculators boosted their bullish bets for a second straight week this week and for the eighth time out of the past nine weeks. Over this nine-week time-frame, Euro bets have jumped by a total of +59,460 contracts, going from -10,162 net positions on December 21st to +47,581 net positions this week. These gains in the Euro sentiment have now brought the speculator positioning to the highest level in the past twenty-six weeks, dating back to August 17th. Joining the Euro (8,739 contracts) with positive changes this week were the US Dollar Index (1,621 contracts), Brazil real (3,514 contracts), Mexican peso (7,730 contracts),  British pound sterling (10,782 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,033 contracts), Russian ruble (721 contracts) and the Bitcoin futures (104 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-7,014 contracts), Canadian dollar (-2,716 contracts), Australian dollar (-953 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-316 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,283 77 35,386 87 -41,548 6 6,162 84 EUR 702,047 84 47,581 50 -85,057 52 37,476 36 GBP 195,302 36 2,237 76 2,874 31 -5,111 45 JPY 199,425 55 -66,162 26 86,256 79 -20,094 6 CHF 45,522 22 -9,715 53 18,888 52 -9,173 36 CAD 144,815 27 12,170 59 -15,116 47 2,946 36 AUD 192,578 77 -86,694 4 97,684 92 -10,990 26 NZD 64,105 71 -9,333 56 12,020 49 -2,687 21 MXN 151,098 26 8,974 31 -12,054 68 3,080 56 RUB 38,960 35 16,164 52 -17,239 46 1,075 64 BRL 67,288 85 23,760 100 -26,225 0 2,465 95 Bitcoin 10,646 56 -215 92 -213 0 428 23   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 35,386 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,765 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.0 5.0 14.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.8 81.5 3.2 – Net Position: 35,386 -41,548 6,162 – Gross Longs: 42,349 2,717 7,897 – Gross Shorts: 6,963 44,265 1,735 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 4.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.8 5.6 83.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.4 5.3 5.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 47,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,842 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.0 54.7 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.3 66.8 7.4 – Net Position: 47,581 -85,057 37,476 – Gross Longs: 217,899 383,827 89,120 – Gross Shorts: 170,318 468,884 51,644 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.6 51.7 36.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.1 -16.6 15.7   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,237 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,782 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,545 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.7 58.8 12.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.5 57.4 15.0 – Net Position: 2,237 2,874 -5,111 – Gross Longs: 50,151 114,901 24,257 – Gross Shorts: 47,914 112,027 29,368 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.6 31.4 45.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.8 -27.6 10.8   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -66,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,148 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.2 83.6 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.4 40.3 19.6 – Net Position: -66,162 86,256 -20,094 – Gross Longs: 10,425 166,645 18,973 – Gross Shorts: 76,587 80,389 39,067 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.2 79.0 6.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 0.7 5.2   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,399 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.0 72.6 19.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.4 31.2 39.2 – Net Position: -9,715 18,888 -9,173 – Gross Longs: 3,652 33,069 8,654 – Gross Shorts: 13,367 14,181 17,827 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.0 52.1 36.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.3 4.8 -11.9   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 12,170 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,886 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.6 40.4 19.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.2 50.9 17.5 – Net Position: 12,170 -15,116 2,946 – Gross Longs: 54,424 58,524 28,287 – Gross Shorts: 42,254 73,640 25,341 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.5 46.6 35.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.5 -16.4 0.9   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -86,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -953 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,741 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.1 81.0 10.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.1 30.2 15.9 – Net Position: -86,694 97,684 -10,990 – Gross Longs: 11,692 155,928 19,706 – Gross Shorts: 98,386 58,244 30,696 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.4 91.8 25.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.5 -2.3 1.1   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,366 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.9 55.3 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.4 36.5 8.6 – Net Position: -9,333 12,020 -2,687 – Gross Longs: 24,923 35,432 2,838 – Gross Shorts: 34,256 23,412 5,525 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.6 48.9 21.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.8 2.6 -13.7   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,974 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,730 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,244 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.4 56.0 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.4 64.0 2.1 – Net Position: 8,974 -12,054 3,080 – Gross Longs: 59,485 84,673 6,250 – Gross Shorts: 50,511 96,727 3,170 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 67.8 56.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.9 -8.0 3.0   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 23,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,514 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,246 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.1 16.5 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.8 55.5 2.4 – Net Position: 23,760 -26,225 2,465 – Gross Longs: 51,868 11,101 4,095 – Gross Shorts: 28,108 37,326 1,630 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 95.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 33.1 -36.1 31.8   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 16,164 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,443 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.8 42.2 6.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.4 86.4 4.2 – Net Position: 16,164 -17,239 1,075 – Gross Longs: 19,808 16,440 2,700 – Gross Shorts: 3,644 33,679 1,625 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.4 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.6 46.0 63.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.9 -19.2 -12.7   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 104 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -319 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.0 3.5 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 80.0 5.5 8.8 – Net Position: -215 -213 428 – Gross Longs: 8,307 369 1,364 – Gross Shorts: 8,522 582 936 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.2 22.8 22.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.5 -9.8 -6.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Even at the last important low (US$$1,750) on December 15th, 2021, the sentiment was still awful as the sector had become the most hated asset class. Now fast-forward, gold has been successfully breaking out of its multi month triangle and keeps sprinting higher. The bulls currently are bending the daily and weekly Bollinger Bands to the upside, and seasonality is still supportive.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 20th, 2022.Looking at the weekly chart, it appears that gold not only broke out of a triangle consolidation pattern, but also out of a large inverse head and shoulder pattern. It’s not a textbook head and shoulder, but worthwhile noting. A measured move projection could theoretically take gold towards US$2,125! However, the monthly Bollinger Band, sitting at around US$ 1,975, might be a much more realistic target for the ongoing move. As you might remember, the zone between US$1,950 to US$1,975 is very strong resistance. We would not rule out a short-lived overshoot towards US$,2000, though.Overall, the weekly chart is not yet overbought and looks bullish. Hence, the rally has very good chances to continue for a few more weeks.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.As expected, the breakout above US$1,840 to US$1,850 has unleashed enough energy to quickly push gold prices towards the round psychological number of US$1,900. Fortunately, the daily stochastic has transformed its overboughtness into the rare “embedded status”, where both signal lines are sitting above 80 for more than three days in a row. Hence, the uptrend is locked-in and shorting this market would be fighting the uptrend.Of course, given the uncertain and complex geopolitical situation, events can and likely will strongly influence gold over the coming days and weeks. Speaking from a technical point of you, any pullback towards the breakout zone around US$1,845 would be a buying opportunity. However, prices below US$1,875 would already be a surprise in the short-term. On the contrary, it’s much more likely that gold will continue its run to at least US$1,930 over the coming days.In summary, the daily chart is bullish. Especially the bullish embedded stochastic oscillator likely will not allow any larger pullback, but rather a consolidation around US$1,900. Watch those two signal lines. Only if one of them would be dropping below 80on a daily close, the bull run might be over!GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.GDX, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold & gold related mining stocks often stabilize your portfolio during uncertain times and do act as a hedge. While the stock market continued its dive due to the crisis in Ukraine and the potential interest rate turnaround in the US, the GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF is up more than 21.5% since its low in mid of December. Over the last two weeks, the leading gold mining stocks recorded some of their best days in the last 12 months. Last week, Barrick Gold ($GOLD) jumped up more than 7% due to good earnings, a dividend increase, and a new share repurchase program. Some smaller gold stocks like Sabina Gold & Silver ($SGSVF) went up even more (+15% Friday, 11th).Now that gold is on the rise, it’s time for the beaten down and undervalued mining stocks to catch up. Usually, it starts with the big senior produces like Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle Mines ($AEM) and Newmont Corporation ($NEM), then the juniors like for example Victoria Gold Corp. ($VITFF) join and finally, the explorer and developers literally explode higher.However, the GDX has nearly reached its downtrend line as well as the 38.2% retracement of the whole corrective wave since August 2020. Hence, the big miners are running into string resistance and might need to consolidate soon.At the same time, note, that silver has been lagging. Silver always lags most of the time, but in the final stage of sector wide rally it suddenly passes all the other metals and shots up nearly vertically. That also typically is the sign that the rally in the sector is coming to an end. Obviously, we have not yet seen any strong silver days. Therefore, silver actually confirms that the sector has more room and time to run higher!Conclusion: Bullish momentum remains strongOverall, gold continues to look promising here as the bullish momentum remains strong. Hence, Gold is probably on the way towards US$1,950 and US$1,975, with a slight chance for an overshot to US$2,000. But of course, given the rather overbought daily chart, the risk/reward is not that good anymore. Silver and many of the smaller mining stocks, however, might still offer a chance to play the ongoing rally over the next few weeks. Once gold tops out in spring, expect a big pullback. Maybe even back towards the higher trending 200-day moving average (currently at US$1,808) at some point in midsummer. But that is all somewhere in the future. For now, the bullish momentum remains strong.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|February 20th, 2022|Tags: $GDXJ, Barrick Gold, GDX, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, gold fundamentals, Newmont Corporation, precious metals, Reyna Gold, Sabina Gold & Silver, Silver, silver bull, US-Dollar, Victoria Gold|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.

Last week, BTC repeated the dynamics of the first ten days of February. The rate strengthened on Monday-Tuesday, and on Wednesday, it exceeded the level of $44,800. Then on Thursday, the price began to fall sharply in unison with stock indices. The decrease in risky assets was caused by the growing tension around Ukraine, where the situation is becoming tenser. On Friday, Bitcoin continued to fall, briefly dropping below the round level of $40,000. This mark was broken on Sunday, and BTC tested the next support level at $38,000. The situation is aggravated by the increase in cryptocurrency sales by miners. As a result, the bears may try to push the price to $36,000 and even $33,000. Today, on hopes of a political de-escalation, BTCUSD is up 2.5%, trying to cling to levels above $39,000. I must say that bitcoin has lost all the growth of February over the past week. In addition to the upcoming Fed rate hike, BTC has been hit by growing geopolitical risks. In addition to this, the founder of Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin, noted that he sees early signs of the onset of crypto winter. This spurred crypto sales among retail investors over the weekend. However, ETHUSD is up 5.3% on Monday, recouping Sunday's decline and continuing to struggle to close the third month in the red. Overall, Bitcoin was down 9.2% over the past week, ending it at around $38,300. Ethereum lost 9.7%, other leading altcoins from the top ten also sank: from 3.3% (Avalanche) to 11% (Cardano). The total capitalization of the crypto market fell by 7% in a week, to $1.82 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index fell 0.7% to 40%, due to less weakening of altcoins. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index lost another 2 points to 25 on Monday, returning to the extreme fear territory.

GBPUSD tests resistance The sterling edged higher after January’s retail sales beat expectations. The recent pause has been an opportunity for the bulls to accumulate. A break above 1.3640 would signal solid buying after previous failed attempts. The daily resistance at 1.3750 would be the next hurdle. Its breach could trigger a broader reversal in the weeks to come. 1.3560 is the immediate support. And 1.3490 at the lower end of the horizontal consolidation is the second line of defense in case the pair needs to attract more support. USDCAD awaits breakout The Canadian dollar tanked after disappointing retail sales in December. The US counterpart is still struggling below the supply zone around 1.2800. A close above this daily resistance could propel the pair to last December’s high at 1.2950, a prerequisite for a bullish continuation in the medium-term. The current sideways action is a sign of indecision. 1.2640 is the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range. A bearish breakout would bring the greenback to a previous low at 1.2560. EURJPY struggles for support The Japanese yen rallies amid growing risk aversion across the board. The euro continues to shed gains from the surge earlier this month. A fall below 131.90 triggered profit-taking, and the latest rally came out to be a dead cat bounce after it was capped by this support-turned-resistance. A break below 130.40 (which sits over the 30-day moving average) shows fragility in market sentiment and would cause another round of sell-off. 129.20 at the base of the bullish impetus would be the next support.

The geopolitical momentum of the escalation/truce situation around Ukraine strikingly has its weekly cycles. Harsh rhetoric seems to peak at the end of the week, followed by the weekend’s relief when the sides look for ways to negotiate, giving a breath of air to global markets early in the week. This week, the same pattern applies with demand for EM currencies and European indices returning to their starting positions before Friday’s collapse. The announced talks between the Russian and US foreign ministers and the chances of a summit between Biden and Putin bring back hopes of a peaceful resolution. However, it is worth realising that the situation remains fragile, and so far, with each new cycle of this momentum, the present situation has become more dramatic. And this is visible in the dynamics of the European indices, where the DAX formed a double top in January and in February began to churn in line with the geopolitical background, maintaining a downward bias and approaching a critical support level that has been in place since last May. The pressure on the DAX to consolidate under the 15,000 mark is occurring on two fronts at once. Firstly, geopolitical tensions are reducing the traction in risky assets of the European region. In addition, fears of energy supply disruptions in the EU due to Russia form the background, with high oil and gas prices holding back the economic recovery. Secondly, the monetary policy outlook continues to be reassessed. ECB officials are talking more and more confidently about a rate hike this year and leaving the door open for such a move as early as September. If the bears manage to push the DAX below the nine-month support, we might see an acceleration of the corrective pullback that could take the index down to 14000 within the next couple of weeks. If the politicians’ rhetoric doesn’t seem to be easing, the next target for a retracement might be the 13000-area, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the extremes of March 2020 and November 2021.

We begin to wrap up David Floyd’s coverage of the Eightcap Trade Zone this February, as he tackles this week’s trading week ahead and notes the levels we should be taking note of as markets open today. If you trade the S&P500, or have an interest in Forex pairs you won’t want to miss his latest insight! David Floyd is the Founder of Aspen Trading Group. He started his career in the trading industry in 1993. His focus eventually shifted to equities and spent the next years trading on a proprietary equities desk. In 2002, Floyd started Aspen Trading and has grown from a pure prop trading firm into becoming the leading provider of expert FX research and analytics worldwide. With over two decades of expertise in global fundamentals and technical analysis, Floyd has been profiled in RealVision TV, CNBC, and Bloomberg. Important Data Releases & Events this Week Monday EUR Manufacturing PMIs from Germany, France and Eurozone USD Bank holiday in observance of US Presidents’ Day GBP Manufacturing and Services PMI from UK Tuesday EUR German Ifo Business USD Consumer Confidence (CB), Flash Services and Manufacturing PMIs and S&P/CS House Price Index Wednesday NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, Rate Statement and Press Conference Friday USD Preliminary GDP, unemployment claims and new home sales GBP BOE Gov Bailey speaks EUR ECB President Lagarde speaks Saturday USD Fed Monetary Policy Report The post Trade Zone Week Ahead with David Floyd (Aspen Trading): 21st – 25th February appeared first on Eightcap.

S&P 500 opening upswing gave way to more selling, but credit markets didn‘t lead to the downside on a daily basis. This tells me the plunge would likely be challenged shortly. As in facing a reversal attempt – it‘s that junk bonds for all the recent (and still to come) deterioration, will probably rebound a little next. Value already retraced part of Friday‘s decline – it‘s just tech that didn‘t yet react to the Treasuries reprieve. Good to have taken short profits off the table. The table is set for S&P 500 to rise, and for bonds to rally somewhat. And that wouldn‘t be the result of war tensions lifting up Treasuries, gold and oil. Red hot inflation, decelerating growth and compressing yield curve are a challenging environment, and the odds of a 50bp Mar rate hike are overwhelming, but the Fed‘s balance sheet is still rising – now within spitting distance of $9T. Sure they will take on inflation, but I continue to think that by autumn they would be forced to reverse course, and start easing. Fresh stimulus after markets protest during 1H 2022? Would be helpful for the midterms... The consumer isn‘t in a great shape as the confidence data reveal – and that‘s also reflected in the direction of discretionaries vs. staples. Inflation is pinching, and the pressure on the Fed to act, is on – its credibility is being challenged. Food inflation is high, and seeing food at home prices rising this much, is as surefire marker of coming recession as yield curve inversion is. And yield differentials are flattening around the world – quite a few central banks are more ahead in the tightening path than the Fed. Economy slowing down, stock market correction far from over (yes, in spite of the coming rebound, I‘m looking for lower lows still), and precious metals upleg underway – yes, underway, and especially our gold profits can keep rising - as I wrote on Friday: (…) With gold at $1,900 again and silver approaching $24, copper‘s fate is also brightening – the miners‘ continued outperformance is a very good sign. With crude oil taking a breather, the inflationary pressures aren‘t at least increasing, but don‘t look for the Bullard or other statements to defeat inflation – I‘m standing by the 4-5% official rate CPI data for 2022 (discussed in yesterday‘s summary). CPI might turn out even a full percentage point higher – depends upon the hedonics and substitution massaging. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 caught a little buying interest going into the long weekend – better days though look to be coming. Not a monstrous rally, but still an upswing. Credit Markets HYG is indeed basing, and will help stocks move higher next. LQD and TLT are already rising, and there is still somewhat more to come. Bonds have simply deteriorated too fast in 2022, and need a breather. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals fireworks continue – we‘re getting started, and $1,920 is the next stop. Kiss of life from the bond market reprieve comes next, on top of all the other factors I‘ve talked about recently. Crude Oil Crude oil is fairly well bid, but the war jitters are helping it out (as in staving off a bit deeper correction). As both oil and base metals are rising, inflation isn‘t likely to slow down (perhaps later in summer?) - black gold‘s uptrend isn‘t over really. Copper Copper keeps going sideways in a volatile fashion, and can be counted on to break higher – inflationary pressures aren‘t abating, and outweigh the slowing economy. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos did break down over the weekend, but the anticipated risk-on rebound fizzled out a bit too fast – as said on Friday, the bears have the upper hand now. Summary S&P 500 appears on the verge of trying to swing higher, and credit markets would be leading the charge as tech finally turns. Value had trouble declining some more on Friday already. Stock market upswing though wouldn‘t throw the precious metals bulls off balance – not too many weeks have passed since I was at the turn of the year predicting that gold (and silver with miners implied) would be the bullish surprise of 2022 – and for all the talk and preemtive tightening in the credit markets, we haven‘t yet seen the Fed move. Anyway, such a lag in moving the Fed funds rate higher, is normal these decades – we are a long way from the early 1980s when the delay between say 2-year Treasury and Fed funds rate move was some 2 months. Crude oil is likewise going to keep rising, and the same goes naturally for copper following in the footsteps. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

USDJPY double top risk increases with a mildly negative candle on the weekly chart. Yen benefitting from safe haven status as war concerns increase. EURJPY had collapsed almost 300 pips at one stage on Friday from Thursday's high, in the flight to the safe haven Yen. The pair remains in a 1 year sideways trend with no other pattern to rely on. CADJPY remains very volatile in the 5 month sideways trend, making it difficult to hold a trade for a more than a few hours. Certainly cannot hold a trade over night. Update daily at 06:30 GMT Today's Analysis. USDJPY now has huge double top risk with a high for the day at the January high. If you did try a short, we broke first support at 115.70/60 to target 115.30/20 with losses as far as 115.00. On the open, holding support at 115.28/25 allows a recovery to resistance at 115.65/70. A break above 115.75 can target 116.00/10 before a retest of 116.20/30. For scalpers we have support at 115.30/20 & 114.93/88. Risking 20 pips to try to scalp a 30-40 pip profit is probably the best strategy I can suggest in these volatile conditions. Further losses however target 114.58/53 with strong support at 114.30/20. EURJPY levels for scalpers in the large, longer term sideways trend are: 131.20/30 & 131.95/132.05, 132.55/65 & 133.05/15. On the downside look out for some support at 130.70/60 & what should be strong support at 130.15/05. Longs need stops below 129.90. CADJPY should have support at 9040/30 & resistance at 9100/9110. In the middle we have a minor level at 9065/70 so I would scalp these levels if the opportunity arises. A break above 9120 can retest last week's high at 9160/70. A break below 9020 targets 8990/80, perhaps as far as 8930/20. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

The Swing Overview – Week 7 Macroeconomic events last week had a secondary impact on market volatility. The "big story" that is currently moving the markets is the situation in Ukraine. Equity indices weakened and retested their strong supports. Last week's winner, on the other hand, is the gold, which, due to these geopolitical uncertainties, surprisingly strengthened to USD 1,900 per ounce, where it last traded in June 2021.   Macroeconomic data from the US  US industrial inflation on an annual basis came in at 9.7%, up from 9.8% in the previous month. This is the first decline in industrial inflation since April 2020. Retail sales reported very strong data, rising 3.8% in January (previous month was down 2.5%).  In the labor market, there was an unexpected increase in initial jobless claims of 248k (expectations were for a 219k increase). FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday did not indicate that the Fed was seriously considering a 0.50% rate hike in March. This gave the markets and risk currencies a temporary boost, but the main driver of the markets last week was the situation in Ukraine. Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine Last week Friday, when Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, warned that Russia could attack Ukraine "any day now", sent stock indices into the red and investors focused on so-called "save havens" such as the US bonds and the gold, which rallied strongly. In contrast, commodity currencies, stock indices and cryptocurrencies, which are seen as risky assets, weakened. This suggests what might happen if an invasion actually took place. At the moment, however, both sides seem to be open to diplomatic solution of the crisis. This brings some relief and cautious optimism even though further developments are unclear.  Let’s have a look at how the US bond yields are reacting to the situation: Figure 1: 10 year government bond yield on the 4H chart and the USD index on the daily chart Demand for these bonds has been rising as investors view the US government bonds as a "save haven" in times of uncertainty. This increases the price of these bonds. Since there is an inverse relationship between the price of bonds and their interest yield, a rise in the price of bonds then pushes down their yields. This explains why the yield on these bonds fell on Friday last week as a result of the news of a possible Russian attack.   Overall, however, yields on these bonds continue to rise as investors anticipate a rise in the US interest rates. This in turn has had a negative effect on the technology stocks in the NASDAQ index in particular.   NASDAQ a SP500 Figure 2: The US NASDAQ index on H4 and D1 chart The NASDAQ started last week on Friday with a significant decline as the other indices.  Then there was a correction of this decline as news emerged that Russia was withdrawing some of its troops from the Ukrainian border and that military exercises were over. However, the next report was that the US was not seeing any change at the border with Ukraine and the NASDAQ index fell again. The current situation is that both sides have agreed to further negotiations.  It can be seen from this how sensitive the indices are to such news. We therefore recommend that our clients keep an eye on any breaking news that emerges in relation to the situation in Ukraine.  The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 14,606 - 14,673. The next resistance is then 15050 - 15100.  Support according to the H4 chart is at 14,050 - 14,100.  Significant support according to the daily chart is at 13,750-13,950.  As for the US SP 500 index, the situation is similar here.   Figure 3: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart The nearest resistance is at 4,471 – 4,491. The next strong resistance is in the area at 4,580 - 4,600.  Support according to the H4 chart is at 4,357 – 4,367. According to the daily chart, significant support is at 4,225 - 4,300.   German DAX index Germany reported ZEW economic sentiment, which came in at 54.3 (previous month 51.7). This indicates an improving outlook for the German economy over the next six months. However, this index was under pressure last week as were the US indices.  Figure 4: The DAX on H4 and daily chart  On February 14, the index fell to 14,841, where the previous support is. The zone of this strong support according to the daily chart is quite wide: 14,800 - 15,000. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is 15,440 - 15,530. The next resistance then immediately follows this zone and is in the 15 534 - 15 617 range.   The EUR/USD under pressure The EURUSD has shown that in times of political uncertainty, this pair tends to weaken. The decline was justified in terms of technical analysis by the false break of the resistance, which is in the area of 1.1465 - 1.1480. Figure 5: EURUSD on H4 and daily chart The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is in the area of 1.1380 - 1.1400. Support according to the H4 chart is at 1.1280 - 1.1300. Very strong support according to the daily chart is then at 1.1120 - 1.1140.   The Gold The gold surprised last week with unexpected strength based on the situation around Ukraine. News that Russia may attack Ukraine any day has caused the gold price to rise. It eventually reached $1,900 per troy ounce, where it last traded in June 2021.  Figure 6: The gold on the H4 and D1 chart The nearest resistance according to the daily chart is USD 1,900 - 1,916 per troy ounce of gold.  The nearest support is 1,872 - 1,878. The most significant support is then at 1 845 - 1 852 USD per troy ounce. Once geopolitical tensions calm down and US government bond yields continue to rise, this should be negative news for gold. 

Gold hit fresh multi-month highs near the $1,910 on Monday but has since dropped back under the $1,900 handle. Geopolitics remains the wildcard that could stoke surprise volatility in either a bullish or bearish direction. Spot gold (XAU/USD) prices hit fresh multi-month highs near $1,910 on Monday during Asia Pacific session, but have again failed to hold north of the $1,900 handle. In recent trade, the precious metal has been caught going sideways in the mid-$1,890s, with the prospect for a fresh push higher again on Monday limited by the lack of market volume stateside. US markets are shut on Monday for Presidents Day so it is likely to be a very quiet US session. Geopolitics remains the wildcard that could stoke surprise volatility in either a bullish or bearish direction. The Russian rouble has been coming under significant pressure on Monday, indicative of rising fears of a Russian invasion/military incursion into Ukraine that would trigger a round of sanctions from Western countries against Moscow. Violence between pro-Russia separatists and Ukraine’s military in the contested Donbass region continued on Monday, the former group upping the inflammatory rhetoric by accusing Ukraine’s military of shelling and planning a full-scale assault. This is keeping gold underpinned close to recent highs. At current levels in the mid-$1,890s, the precious metal trades close to flat on the day and only about 0.75% below earlier session highs. One bearish risk to note for gold is whether a summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden goes ahead this week following recent chatter. The meeting could be a good opportunity to ease tensions somewhat. Otherwise, US data and Fed speak will be worth watching, but will, for the most part, still play second fiddle to the Ukraine crisis.

we will see if this bearish trend continues this week...Further losses look likely to 4270/65... The index collapsed exactly as predicted to the 4270/65 target. Nasdaq MARCH we wrote: the sellers returned but we remain in a short term negative trend so I believe that risks are to the downside. Down we go as predicted to retest the January low at 13730/700. Emini Dow Jones MARCH volatile with no clear trend or pattern. We could be building a head & shoulders reversal pattern but we are a long way off completion. Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P collapsed to my target of 4270/65 before incredibly important support at 4195/4185. A break below here could trigger another 15% correction to the downside. Minor resistance at 4290/4300 then strong resistance at 4350/60. Shorts need stops above 4370. A break higher targets 4395/4400. Nasdaq broke lower as expected through 14200/150 & 13900/850 to retest the January low at 13730/700. Holding below here could trigger another 700 point loss to 13000/12950. Along the way look for 13500/450. If bulls can get the index to hold above 13700 in oversold conditions they can trigger a bounce to 13950/980, perhaps as far as 14100/150. Emini Dow Jones broke 34000/33950 to target 33650/600, perhaps as far as support at 33200/33000. Watch for a low for the day. Strong resistance at 33900/34000 could see a high for the day. Shorts need stops above 34150. A break higher initially targets 34350, perhaps as far as 34500. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

USDCHF tests daily support The Swiss franc surges as the US-Russia stalemate boosts demand for safe haven assets. Consecutive drops below 0.9220 and then 0.9180 suggest that sellers have taken control. The greenback is heading towards January’s double bottom around 0.9110. A break below this key floor would trigger a deeper correction towards the psychological level of 0.9000. The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a temporary rebound. The support-turned-resistance at 0.9220 is the level to break to give the bulls any hope of recovery. XAGUSD bounces higher Bullion rallies over ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. Silver gained momentum after a break above the supply zone at 23.90. A brief fallback found support over 23.10 which indicates solid buying interest. The price is grinding up along a rising trendline and sentiment remains upbeat as long as it stays above the congestion area near the trendline and 23.60. January’s peak at 24.70 is the target when volatility picks up again. A bullish breakout could trigger a broader reversal in the weeks to come. UK 100 struggles for support The FTSE 100 tumbles as risk appetite slips across the board. The bulls’ latest effort to push beyond 7630 turned out to be futile. A break below 7500 suggests a lack of commitment and weighs on short-term sentiment. Intraday traders have switched sides and look to fade the next bounce towards the former support. A dip below 7430 has opened the door to 7330 as the next target. Further down, the daily support at 7240 would be a major level to keep the uptrend intact in the medium term.

The beginning of Monday in Russia was quite positive: the ruble strengthened, reacting to the announcement of the summit of the leaders of Russia and the United States, mediated by France. The situation deteriorated sharply after the heads of the DPR and LPR turned to Putin with a request to recognize the independence of the republics. Over the weekend, the situation in the LDNR deteriorated sharply: on Friday, the evacuation of citizens to the Russian Federation was announced. Towards the evening, President Putin held an extraordinary extended meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation on the recognition of the LPR and DPR. Oil quotes rose noticeably on Monday, reacting to the likely imposition of sanctions against Russia, the world's leading oil producer. Restrictions may lead to interruptions in the supply of raw materials, further exacerbating its market shortage. Prices for Brent oil updated the highs of 2014, adding three dollars, and by the end of the day rose above $97 per barrel. Low-liquid trades aggravated the situation due to the holiday in the USA. While Europe admits that it cannot do without energy and resources from Russia, the banking sector is under attack. Trading volumes on Monday were record-breaking, which indicates the withdrawal of large players from the market. It is also worth paying attention to retailers and technology companies, which may find it difficult to work abroad or import goods and technologies. These sectors will show the most volatility depending on how events unfold. The current situation is tightening financial conditions for Russian companies, destabilizing markets and reducing business predictability. The volatility of the ruble and the closure of the Russian market for global capital will hurt the economy, probably sending it into decline in the coming quarters. In the long term, this threatens to reduce growth potential, which is already lower than that of many developed countries. Such conditions translate for the population into a drop in living standards through a decrease in real incomes or (at best) a dramatic slowdown in their growth.

Bitcoin, best in play   The Covid environment brought an additional variant risk factor to the table, especially when it comes to investor psychology. Our last weekly chart book publication made a case for positioning one’s risk hedge plays this year when equity markets most likely trade in a volatile sideways range. We also spoke of a proper wealth preservation strategy, holding both bitcoin and gold within a hedged risk reduction approach for your monies. With our primary focus on risk, the next question is allocation size between bitcoin and gold. As mentioned in the intro, it feels intuitively natural to have significant exposure to the gold side from a cycle history. Yet, insurance seems essential at this time, and as such, we tend to be a bit more aggressive towards bitcoin allocations. Bitcoin, daily chart, not just yet: Bitcoin, daily chart as of February 22nd, 2022. The daily chart reflects the common notion of bitcoin trading alongside PMI numbers and the market as a whole. With the recent break of the modest bounce from the US$33,500 level up leg (yellow up-channel), no immediate low-risk entries for longer-term exposure seems in play.   Bitcoin, weekly chart, great setup, bitcoin, best in play: Bitcoin, weekly chart as of February 22nd, 2022. Nevertheless, we find now zooming out to the weekly time frame a quite interesting entry zone (white box) between the levels US$30,000 to US$34,000. We identified by stacking multiple edges that an entry near US$31,800 would provide the most low-risk entry profile. However, it will depend on how prices will arrive at these levels. As such, we encourage you to check back in our free Telegram channel.  There we post-entries, and exits for educational purposes in real-time. Bitcoin, monthly chart, amazing potential: Bitcoin, monthly chart as of February 22nd, 2022. Where matters become more transparent, and our headlines supported, is at a view of the monthly chart. The first leg up was nothing short of a 1,600% advancement. Now we have been trading for a year in a bullish up sloping sideways channel. With a possible entry at the lows of this channel, a long-term investment provides for a stellar risk/reward-ratio. The second legs are typically longer than the first legs! But that is not all; bitcoin has a higher probability of four-leg moves versus three-leg moves. Consequently, this trade could turn out to be highly profitable after some time. One aspect of risk is the relationship between the size of a potential down move of price and the size of a likely up move. We find bitcoins’ upward potential much more significant than gold for its fundamental characteristics and stellar outperforming history percentagewise. Bitcoin, best in play: Summing it up, bitcoin might not be at its lowest retracement levels yet. Still, its powerful potential in risk/reward-ratio and as an overall risk hedge makes it best in play. We share a low-risk cost averaging in strategy in our free Telegram channel. We find that allocation of funds should be more dominant towards bitcoin. In addition, holding some cash as much as money is deflating can still be a good strategy. Cash is king to purchase desired goods and vehicles, especially when those are even more depressed.    Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 22nd, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin correction, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, NASDAQ, quad exit, S&P 500, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments

& at last the index broke lower - how long have I been waiting for this move!!?? The break below 15050/15000 was a serious sell signal & exactly as predicted we collapsed quickly to 14830/800, 14680/650 & almost as far as 14350/300 with a low for the day just 33 ticks above. EuroStoxx 50 MARCH we wrote: a break below 4060 can retest 4000/3990. A break below here targets 3900/3880. Targets all hit with a low for the day exactly at 3900. FTSE 100 MARCH could be building a short term head & shoulders pattern. A break below 7400 would confirm & trigger a sell signal with a 200 tick drop the measured target. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Dax has very strong support at 14350/300. Longs need stops below 14250. An unexpected break lower however targets strong longer term moving average support at 14050/13950. We could see a good recovery having held important support at 14350/300 targeting 14600/650. If we continue higher expected very strong resistance at 14800/850 today. Shorts need stops above 14900. A break higher can target strong resistance at 15100/150. EuroStoxx a low for the day exactly at important support at 3900/3880. A break below 3860 is therefore an important medium term sell signal initially targeting 3810/00 & 3750/40. Holding important support at 3900/3880 allows a recovery to resistance at 3990/4000. Shorts need stops above 4020. A break higher can target resistance at 4080/90. FTSE saw a high for the day exactly at first resistance at 7510/30. The index collapsed to 7440/20 & 7350. Further losses meet strong support at 7310/00 today. Longs need stops below 7270. First resistance at 7410/20. Very strong resistance at 7450/60. Shorts need stops above 7490. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

Ripple we wrote: holding below 7900/7850 can target 7500 before strong support at 7100/7050. Longs need stops below 6950. Strong support at 7100/7050 also broken for the next sell signal. Ethereum we wrote: breaks minor support at 3000/2970 & now breaks support at 2840/00 to target 2590/2550, probably as far as the 500 day moving average at 2450/2400. Almost there! Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis Bitcoin breaks 40800/500 for a medium term sell signal in the 3 month bear trend initially targeting 38000/37500 then 36400/36000 (just hit as I write) & 34000. Do not be surprised to see a test of the 100 week moving average at 32600/450. Gains are likely to be limited in the bear trend with first resistance at 39400/450. Further resistance at 40900/41000. Shorts need stops above 42200. Ripple break of strong support at 7100/7050 is our next sell signal targeting 6600/6550. Longs look too risky!! Further losses test very important 100 week moving average support at 6190/6160. Longs need stops below 6100. A break lower quickly targets 5800. Gains are likely to be limited in the bear trend with resistance at 7080/90, 7300/7350 & 7460/90. Ethereum breaks minor support at 3000/2970 t& now breaks support at 2840/00 to target 2590/2550, probably as far as the 500 day moving average at 2450/2400 this week. This MA held the low in January so bet on a bounce from here if you think the same can happen again. However a break below 2350 should therefore be quite a serious sell signal in the bear trend. Gains are likely to be limited with resistance at 2800/2850 & 2970/3000. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

Losing for the sixth day in a row, bitcoin is approaching a retest of the intermediate round level of 35,000, near which buyers became more active at the end of last month. A further decline could open a direct road to the 30,000 area, where the coin was bought back twice in 2021. Given the changed macroeconomic conditions and the pressure on risky assets, will the crypto remain as interesting at these same levels? Cryptocurrencies once again fell under geopolitical pressure, although a relatively small decline was caused by the absence of major US players due to a holiday in the US. And again, risky assets, from stocks to digital currencies, collapsed with the aggravation of the situation around Ukraine, where investors fear conflict in Eastern Europe. Against this background, one of the world's largest hedge funds, Man Group, called bitcoin a risky asset, as indicated by the growing correlation of BTC with the Nasdaq stock index. Black Swan author Nassim Taleb criticized bitcoin as a hedge, calling it "the perfect game for losers" in an environment of low interest rates. Huobi co-founder Du Jun expects bitcoin to rise to new highs no earlier than 2025, basing his assumptions on halving-related price cycles. Bitcoin was down 3.1% on Monday, ending the day near $37,100, continuing to drop moderately on Tuesday morning to $36,700. Ethereum lost 3%, falling back to $2,500, while other top-ten altcoins also mostly sank: from 4.9 % (Binance Coin) to 7.1% (Solana). The exception was Terra, which posted a 3.8% increase. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, fell by 7.3% over the day, to $1.66 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index rose from 41.7% to 42.2% due to a sharper decline in altcoins. The fear and greed index lost 5 points to 20, deepening into a state of "extreme fear."

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/2/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 1,621 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,979 contracts and an increase in short positions by 358 contracts. Growth in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound and the New Zealand dollar. Decrease in total net positions occurred in the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, and the Swiss franc. In the event of a Russian invasion to Ukraine, markets would move into risk-off sentiment. This means that investors would sell risk assets, which include stock indices, and shift their resources into assets that are considered as safe havens in such situations, which include US government bonds and gold. In currency terms, this means that the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc in particular could then appreciate in such a situation. Commodity currencies (especially AUD, NZD) might weaken. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators Date USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399 Feb 01, 2022 34571 29716 -23605 -79829 -11698 -60640 18264 -8239 Jan 25, 2022 36861 31560 -7763 -83273 -10773 -68273 12317 -8796 Jan 18, 2022 36434 24584 -247 -88454 -8331 -80879 7492 -10810 Jan 11, 2022 37892 6005 -29166 -91486 -8604 -87525 -7376 -7660 Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the end of this report. Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Bullish Feb 01, 2022 685431 213563 183847 29716 2479 155 1999 -1844 Weak bullish Jan 25, 2022 682952 213408 181848 31560 -8930 1507 -5469 6976 Bullish Jan 18, 2022 691882 211901 187317 24584 9589 7540 -11039 18579 Bullish Jan 11, 2022 682293 204361 198356 6005 4075 5288 -2271 7559 Bullish         Total change 23829 18826 -30309 49135     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 47,581 contracts last week, up by 8,739 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,074 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 9,813 contracts. Total net speculators positions have increased by 49,135 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators closing 30,309 short positions and adding 18,826 long positions. This data suggests continued bullish sentiment for the euro. However, the rising open interest, which increased by 1,949 contracts in the last week, shows the opposite, as the euro fell down last week and this decline is supported by the rising number of open interest contracts. So more bearish traders were in the market. So we have conflicting information here. The euro weakened slightly last week on fears of an escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Long-term resistance: 1.1461 – 1.15 Support: 1.1280 - 1.1300. Next support is near 1.1220 - 1.1240. A strong support is in 1.1120-1.1140. The British Pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 184007 29597 53202 -23605 1967 -7069 8773 -15842 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 182040 36666 44429 -7763 -1194 -3094 4422 -7516 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 183234 39760 40007 -247 -17259 9254 -19665 28919 Weak bearish Jan 11, 2022 200493 30506 59672 -29166 486 4526 -5479 10005 Weak bearish         Total change -4705 24171 -17237 41408     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 2,237 contracts last week, up by 10,782 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions of 5,442 contracts and a decrease in short positions of 5,340 contracts. Total net positions have increased by 41,408 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exiting 17,237 short positions and adding 24,171 long positions. This data suggests bullish sentiment for the pound. Open interest, which fell by 2,646 contracts last week, is indicating that the bullish price action that occurred in the pound last week was not supported by volume and therefore it is weak. Risk off sentiment in US equities could have a negative effect on the Pound as well as the Euro, which could then send the Pound towards support which is at 1.3380. Long-term resistance: 1.3620-1.3640. Next resistance is near 1.3680 – 1.3750. Support: 1.3490 – 1.3520. A next support is near 1.3320 – 1.3380 and then mainly in the zone near 1.3200. The Australian dollar   Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish Feb 01, 2022 196913 18835 98664 -79829 6893 3714 270 3444 Weak bearish Jan 25, 2022 190020 15121 98394 -83273 8884 6070 889 5181 Weak bearish Jan 18, 2022 181136 9051 97505 -88454 -4317 -3332 -6364 3032 Weak bearish Jan 11, 2022 185453 12383 103869 -91486 5346 -249 1871 -2120 Bearish         Total change 12471 -940 -3612 2672     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1 Total net speculator positions last week reached -86,694 contracts, down 953 contracts from the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions of 5,631 contracts and a decrease in short positions of 4,678 contracts. This data suggests continued bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar, which is confirmed by the downtrend. Total net positions have increased by 2,672 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exit of 3,612 short contracts while exiting 940 long contracts at the same time. However, last week saw a decrease in open interest of 3,825 contracts. This means that the upward price action that occurred last week was weak in terms of volume because new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar is very sensitive to the international geopolitical situation. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalates, we can expect it to weaken especially on the AUDUSD pair and also the AUDJPY. Long-term resistance: 0.7200-0.7250 and especially near 0.7270-0.7310. Long-term support: 0.7085-0.7120. A strong support is near 0.6960 – 0.6990. The New Zealand dollar   Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 58467 19205 30903 -11698 5151 3257 4182 -925 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 53316 15948 26721 -10773 8589 4336 6778 -2442 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 44727 11612 19943 -8331 2661 652 379 273 Weak bearish Jan 11, 2022 42066 10960 19564 -8604 1764 1543 1302 241 Weak bearish         Celková změna 23803 15506 15994 -488     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached a negative value last week - 9,333 contracts, having increased by 1,033 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 7,755 contracts and an increase in short positions by 6,722 contracts. This data suggests that the bearish sentiment for the New Zealand Dollar continues, but has started to weaken over the past week. Total net positions have declined by 488 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators adding 15,994 short positions and adding 15,506 long positions. Open interest rose significantly last week, increasing by 9,228 contracts. The rise in the NZDUSD price action that occurred last week is therefore supported by volume and therefore the move was strong. The reason for the NZD strengthening last week is that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to raise interest rates to 1% on Feb 23, 2022. However, if the conflict in Ukraine escalates further, the NZDUSD could more likely weaken. The reason for the NZDUSD's decline from a technical analysis perspective could also be that the NZDUSD price has reached horizontal resistance and also the upper downtrend line from the daily chart. Long-term resistance: 0.6700 – 0.6740 and then 0.6850 – 0.6890. Long-term support: 0.6590-0.6600 and the next support is at 0.6500 – 0.6530. Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.

In times of trouble, bonds are seen as a safe haven and yields fall with stocks.Normally, lower yields boost stocks, an inverse correlation.Understanding the situation is key to trading markets. Could you explain to me the relationship between the movement of 10-year US government bonds and US stock indices? This is a question we have received from a user and the answer is complicated – it depends on the current market focus.Markets are currently in times of trouble, with Russia and Ukraine apparently on the brink of war. Every negative headline prompts investors to sell stocks and buy bonds – moving yields down. So, yields and shares move in tandem. One example is the announcement by Russian President Vladimir Putin about the recognition of the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Every optimistic headline sends money to stocks and away from Treasuries, pushing yields up, alongside equities. Examples include announcements of high or top-level meetings trying to resolve the situation. Headline-driven markets tend to experience this straightforward correlation between yields and stocks.However, the correlation is inverse when fear of war does not grip markets. In such situations, investors focus on the Federal Reserve. If they think there is a higher chance of more rate hikes, they sell both stocks and bonds – with yields rising to reflect expectations of elevated borrowing costs. Statements about the need for a 50 bps rate hike or strong economic data are examples of such behavior. When some Fed official says the path of rate hikes is slower, investors are happy to push yields lower by buying bonds and they also purchase stocks, which have a bigger advantage when the comparative safe investment in Treasuries results in a lower yield. A comment by a Fed official about settling for a standard 25 bps rate hike triggers such a reaction. Normal markets tend to experience an inverse correlation between bonds and stocks.

After hitting fresh multi-month highs at $1914, spot gold is consolidating above $1900 as the Russia/Ukraine crisis escalates.As traders worry about the rising risk of a full-scale Russian military incursion into Ukraine, gold will likely remain supported.As the Russia/Ukraine crisis continues to escalate, most recently with Russia recognising the independence of and moving troops into two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, prompting NATO nations to announce/prepare new sanctions on Russia, gold has moved back above $1900. Spot prices (XAU/USD) hit fresh multi-month highs at $1914 on Tuesday and, though pulling back from these highs printed during Asia pacific trade as dip-buying facilitating an intra-day rebound in global equities markets, has remained above the key $1900 level.With market participants nervous that Russia/pro-Russia separatists in Eastern Ukraine could initiate further hostilities against Ukraine, thus further escalating the risk of an all-out Ukraine/Russia conflict, gold is likely to remain well underpinned this week. Brent oil spiked to close to $100 per barrel on Tuesday and EU natural gas prices were up sharply as Germany pledged not to approve the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that would bring gas directly to Germany from Russia. The upside risks posed to global inflation from any continued spike in energy prices as a result of further Russia/Ukraine crisis escalation is likely boosting demand for gold as an inflation hedge.Recent Fed speak and US data releases have not had much of an impact on gold in recent days as price action takes its cue from geopolitics. Hawkish commentary from Fed’s Michelle Bowman on Monday, who essentially said she was still undecided as the whether the Fed should hike rates by 25 or 50bps in March, was roundly shrugged off. That suggests that other Fed speak this week is also likely to be ignored, or, at least, play second fiddle, with this also likely the case for Friday’s January US Core PCE inflation data. Ahead of that, traders should keep an eye on upcoming US PMI and CB Consumer Confidence surveys, both the flash readings for February.

S&P 500 is waking up to fresh European news, and holds up well. There is no panic upswing in gold and silver, but crude oil and natural gas are up the most. As the U.S. markets are to open following yesterday‘s Washington‘s Birthday holiday, let‘s bring up the key details of yesterday‘s analysis: (…) S&P 500 opening upswing gave way to more selling, but credit markets didn‘t lead to the downside on a daily basis. This tells me the plunge would likely be challenged shortly. As in facing a reversal attempt – it‘s that junk bonds for all the recent (and still to come) deterioration, will probably rebound a little next. Value already retraced part of Friday‘s decline – it‘s just tech that didn‘t yet react to the Treasuries reprieve. Good to have taken short profits off the table. The table is set for S&P 500 to rise, and for bonds to rally somewhat. And that wouldn‘t be the result of war tensions lifting up Treasuries, gold and oil. Red hot inflation, decelerating growth and compressing yield curve are a challenging environment, and the odds of a 50bp Mar rate hike are overwhelming, but the Fed‘s balance sheet is still rising – now within spitting distance of $9T. Sure they will take on inflation, but I continue to think that by autumn they would be forced to reverse course, and start easing. Fresh stimulus after markets protest during 1H 2022? Would be helpful for the midterms... The consumer isn‘t in a great shape as the confidence data reveal – and that‘s also reflected in the direction of discretionaries vs. staples. Inflation is pinching, and the pressure on the Fed to act, is on – its credibility is being challenged. Food inflation is high, and seeing food at home prices rising this much, is as surefire marker of coming recession as yield curve inversion is. And yield differentials are flattening around the world – quite a few central banks are more ahead in the tightening path than the Fed. Economy slowing down, stock market correction far from over (yes, in spite of the coming rebound, I‘m looking for lower lows still), and precious metals upleg underway – yes, underway, and especially our gold profits can keep rising - as I wrote on Friday: (…) With gold at $1,900 again and silver approaching $24, copper‘s fate is also brightening – the miners‘ continued outperformance is a very good sign. With crude oil taking a breather, the inflationary pressures aren‘t at least increasing, but don‘t look for the Bullard or other statements to defeat inflation – I‘m standing by the 4-5% official rate CPI data for 2022 (discussed in yesterday‘s summary). CPI might turn out even a full percentage point higher – depends upon the hedonics and substitution massaging. What a long quote – let‘s update it with the premarket action. S&P 500 is still waiting with its potential upsing, dollar has gone nowhere really, and precious metals look like having a bright day today. The crude oil upswing shows that markets don‘t like the geopolitical news, and are likely to behave in a risk-off way of late (Treasuries, gold and oil up benefiting most). The internals of today‘s stock market action would be telling – I recently got an interesting question touching also upon rates and real estate: Q: I read your most recent newsletter with great interest: 1. You think the Fed would start to ease this fall? In your opinion, how long would that last?  Midterm would be done soon there after so would it be a quick few months then revert back to higher rates? 2. I’m asking question #1 as it would impact real estate. 3. You anticipate a “temporary” rise in the S&P this week? Are you thinking just a few days? I noticed 10 yr is going down. A: Thank you for asking. I'll take 1 & 2 in one go - I think they would change course latest autumn. So, now hawkish and raising, then turning to easing before midterms. Let's see first the damage this tightening does, and the degree to which they then turn dovish. As regards real estate, it's slowing down, homebuilders, XLRE... Headwinds would be stiffening, rates are eating into mortgages, but those ZIP codes where immigration into is high, would do best - but the overall, total real estate isn't an appealing proposition. When markets open, there is likely to be a little SPX rally off oversold readings. Sure, they can get more oversold - that's the way it goes during bearish episodes, which is why I'm not long. The trend for now is to the downside, so I would keep predominantly looking and taking opportunities to short. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 caught a little buying interest going into the long weekend – better days though look to be coming. Not a monstrous rally, but still an upswing. Credit Markets HYG is indeed basing, and will help stocks move higher next. LQD and TLT are already rising, and there is still somewhat more to come. Bonds have simply deteriorated too fast in 2022, and need a breather. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals fireworks continue – we‘re getting started, and $1,920 is the next stop. Kiss of life from the bond market reprieve comes next, on top of all the other factors I‘ve talked about recently. Crude Oil Crude oil is fairly well bid, but the war jitters are helping it out (as in staving off a bit deeper correction). As both oil and base metals are rising, inflation isn‘t likely to slow down (perhaps later in summer?) - black gold‘s uptrend isn‘t over really. Copper Copper keeps going sideways in a volatile fashion, and can be counted on to break higher – inflationary pressures aren‘t abating, and outweigh the slowing economy. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos stopped breaking down today, and the price action smacks of joining in the modest risk-on upswing, as unbelievable as it sounds. Summary Yesterday‘s summary is valid also today – S&P 500 appears on the verge of trying to swing higher, and credit markets would be leading the charge as tech finally turns. Value had trouble declining some more on Friday already. Stock market upswing though wouldn‘t throw the precious metals bulls off balance – not too many weeks have passed since I was at the turn of the year predicting that gold (and silver with miners implied) would be the bullish surprise of 2022 – and for all the talk and preemtive tightening in the credit markets, we haven‘t yet seen the Fed move. Anyway, such a lag in moving the Fed funds rate higher, is normal these decades – we are a long way from the early 1980s when the delay between say 2-year Treasury and Fed funds rate move was some 2 months. Crude oil is likewise going to keep rising, and the same goes naturally for copper following in the footsteps. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  The current military tensions and the Fed’s sluggishness favor gold bulls, but not all events are positive for the yellow metal. What should we be aware of? It may be quiet on the Western Front, but quite the opposite on the Eastern Front. Russia has accumulated well over 100,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine and makes provocations practically every day, striving for war more and more clearly. Last week, shelling was reported on Ukraine’s front line and Russia carried out several false flag operations. According to Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, “the evidence on the ground is that Russia is moving toward an imminent invasion.” Meanwhile, President Biden said: “We have reason to believe they are engaged in a false flag operation to have an excuse to go in. Every indication we have is they're prepared to go into Ukraine and attack Ukraine.” Of course, what politicians say should always be taken with a pinch of salt, but it seems that the situation has gotten serious and the risk of Russian invasion has increased over recent days.   Implications for Gold What does the intensifying conflict between Russia and Ukraine imply for the gold market? Well, the last week was definitely bullish for the yellow metal. As the chart below shows, the price of gold (London P.M. Fix) rallied over the past few days from $1,849 to $,1894, the highest level since June 2021; And he gold futures have even jumped above $1,900 for a while! Part of that upward move was certainly driven by geopolitical risks related to the assumed conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This is because gold is a safe-haven asset in which investors tend to park their money in times of distress. It’s worth remembering that not all geopolitical events are positive for gold, and when they are, their impact is often short-lived. Hence, if Russia invades Ukraine, the yellow metal should gain further, but if uncertainty eases, gold prices may correct somewhat. To be clear, the timing of the current military tensions is favorable for gold bulls. First of all, we live in an environment of already high inflation. Wars tend to intensify price pressure as governments print more fiat money to finance the war effort and reorient their economies from producing consumer goods toward military stuff. Not to mention the possible impact of the conflict on oil prices, which would contribute to rising energy costs and CPI inflation. According to Morgan Stanley’s analysts, further increases in energy prices could sink several economies into an outright recession. Second, the pace of economic growth is slowing down. The Fed has been waiting so long to tighten its monetary policy that it will start hiking interest rates in a weakening economic environment, adding to the problems. There is a growing risk aversion right now, with equities and cryptocurrencies being sold off. Such an environment is supportive of gold prices. Third, the current US administration has become more engaged around the world than the previous one. My point is that the current conflict is not merely between Russia and Ukraine, but also between Russia and the United States. This is one of the reasons why gold has been reacting recently to the geopolitical news. However, a Russian invasion of Ukraine wouldn’t pose a threat to America, and the US won’t directly engage in military operations on Ukrainian land, so the rally in gold could still be short-lived. If history is any guide, geopolitical events usually trigger only temporary reactions in the precious metals markets, especially if they don’t threaten the United States and its economy directly. This is because all tensions eventually ease, and after a storm comes calm. Hence, although the media would focus on the conflict, don’t get scared and – when investing in the long run – remember gold fundamentals. Some of them are favorable, but we shouldn’t forget about the Fed’s tightening cycle and the possibility that disinflation will start soon, which could raise the real interest rates, creating downward pressure on gold prices. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

So, the week is coming to an end, but markets stay awake all days long. Right after midnight we’re all welcomed to join our friends from Australia in reviewing Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q4) (Prev. -2.2%). Afterwards, at 7.30 a.m. Swiss Employment Level (Q4) will be released. Heading to Oceanic Area, India will release RBI MPC Meeting Minutes, followed by Brazilian Unemployment Rate (Prev. 11.6%) Released half an hour later. Back to Europe, shortly after midday ECB McCaul is going to declare. At 1 a.m. Russia will release their Central Bank Reserves and 15 minutes later BoE Gov Bailey is going to give a speech. At 2.40 p.m. ECB Supervisory Board Member Fernandez-Bollo is going to speak. Isabel Schnabel will take her turn more than hour later. USA – At 1.30 p.m. GDP (QoQ) (Q4) (Prev. 6.9%), GDP Price Index (Prev. 7.0%) and Initial Jobless Claims (Prev. 248K) will be released. In the same time, but in Canada, we will meet the latest Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Prev. 0.7%). In the afternoon we will get to know US New Home Sales (MoM) and Crude Oil Inventories (Prev. 1.121M) and Cushing Crude Oil Inventories. Some would say that 24/02 is the day of speeches what is not exaggerated as FOMC Members speaks from 4 p.m. to 6 p.m. We will get the Thursday ended with New Zealand’s Core Retail Sales (QoQ) (Prev. -6.7%), Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q4) (Prev. -8.1%), Trade Balance (YoY) (Jan) (Prev. -6.780M) followed by Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) (Prev. -0.2%) and CPI Tokyo Ex Food And Energy (MoM) (Feb) (Prev. -0.3%) Source: Investing.com Tiime: GMT

~/getmedia/fbdf02b1-4fa2-42af-bbad-7f789e463bc0/P-swapy.png Swaps: FX Swap vs. Cross-Currency Swaps Swaps are derivative contracts serving for the purpose of exchanging financial instruments. through which two parties exchange financial instruments. Such instruments can comprise of different values, however, the mostly popular is the exchange of cash when both parties agree on certain notional principal. In practice, banks do not change the principal. Each of the cash flows has a so-called swap leg. Often, one leg comprises of a fixed cash flows, while the other leg is somehow variable, therefore it’s moving according to some interest rate, fx rate or any other indices, etc. Interest rate swaps (IRS) This is the most frequently used swap type on the interbank market. It’s not a business of any retail traders, nor they can’t be found on any exchanges. This is a derivative for an over-the-counter market (OTC), where banks (or any other financial institutions) exchange currencies.   Calculation of an IRS: Bank A has issued a 5-yr bond with a variable annual interest rate according to the LIBOR rate + 1.3% (130 basis points). Bank A makes an agreement with the Bank B, expressing its will to pay LIBOR + 1.3% for $1 million for 5 years to the Bank A. In exchange, Bank A pays the fixed annual rate of 5% on a notional value of $1 million for the same 5 years. Let’s imagine the LIBOR stays at 1.5%. In the event the rate rises over the next 5 years, Bank A benefits from such deal. In the event LIBOR rises 0.75% p.a., Bank A pays $215,000 to bond holders Year 2 = 1.5% + 0.75% = 2.25% Year 3 = 2.25% + 0.75% = 3.0% Year 4 = 3.0% + 0.75% = 3.75% Year 5 = 3.75% + 0.75% = 4.5% $215,000 = $1,000,000 x [(5 x 0.013) + 0.015 + 0.0225 + 0.03 + 0.0375 + 0.045] This means that the Bank A pays $75,000 more to its bond holders as if the rate stayed the same (so it would pay only $140,000 if LIBOR had remained unchanged at 1.5%: 140 000 $ = 1 000 000 $ x 5 x (0,013 + 0,015) Bank A pays Bank B $250,000: 250 000 $ = 1 000 000 $ x 5 x 0,05 Bank A receives $215,000 from the Bank B. Therefore, its net loss on the swap comes to $250,000 - $215,000 = $35,000. FX swaps An FX swap is another kind of agreement between two banks, exchanging one currency for another (so the EU-based Bank A lends EUR to the Bank B, while the U.S.-based Bank B lends U.S. dollars to the Bank A). In this case, the collateral for meeting its obligation is the amount to be repaid by one party to another. Such repayment depends on the exchange rate, so the development is clear since the beginning. According to the most frequent situation for FX swaps, the picture from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) depicts the exchange of EUR for USD through swap. The Bank A borrows USD (X·S USD) from the Bank B while lending the EUR (X EUR) to the Bank B (S means the FX spot rate). After the expiration (if not prolonged), the Bank A is obliged to return USD (X·F USD) to the Bank B, while the Bank B must return EUR (X EUR) to the Bank A (F means the FX forward rate since the start).   FX swaps are popular on the interbank market as they allow the banks to reach to foreign currencies easily (could apply to exporting/importing companies as well). Thanks to its popularity on the OTC market, their maturities have been often prolonged for more than 1 year, however the banks are always looking for further possibilities and derivatives as they need foreign cash flows as well. Good example is the swaption (option giving the right to the user to open a swap at certain time for the underlying asset). Fig. 1: System of FX swaps – source: BIS Cross-Currency Swaps Cross-currency swaps are used less frequently, however, they play an important role on the interbank OTC market. Here, the banks borrow on currency, while lending another currency at the same time to the bank they borrowed from. The system is little upgraded from the FX swaps, albeit many traders tend to mix these two swap types. Here, the EU-based Bank A borrows USD (X·S USD) from the Bank B, while providing it EUR (X EUR) as in case of FX swaps. Nevertheless, here the Bank A receives EUR 3M Libor+ α from the Bank B, while the Bank A pays USD 3M Libor to the Bank B every quarter (3M or Q). The α is the price of the basis swap, agreed between the parties at the beginning. After the expiry date, the Bank A is obliged to return USD (X·S USD) to the Bank B, where S is the spot rate at the conclusion of this agreement. At the same time, the Bank B must return EUR (X EUR) to the Bank A. Cross-currency swaps serve for the same purpose on the interbank market, however, the banks/institutions tend to take the rates (their change) into account, mainly during the volatile periods of time. Here, due to their nature or rate change taken into account, the maturity is much longer as in case of the FX swaps as the change of rates comes much slower as in case of the exchange rate. They are often concluded from 1 to 30 years in maturity. Fig. 2: System of cross-currency swaps – source: BIS

Over the last several weeks, traders would have heard of and watched the unfolding Ukraine crisis. Russia built up a mass of troops and military hardware on the border, which started sending shockwaves through the markets that an invasion and new European conflict could be developing. This is not the first time we have seen Russian aggression towards Ukraine. In 2014 we all watched as Russia annexed Crimea after Moscow said it supported the liberty and backing the people’s free will as they wanted to rejoin Russia and break away from Ukraine. During this round, the situation felt and looked different due to the sheer build-up of the Russian military. Ukraine requesting to join NATO and the possibility of U.S./NАТО bases being built in Ukraine look like a flashpoint for the Russian side. Despite talks and negotiations, Russia continued to amass military close to the border, feeding invasion fears. Reasons continued to put out by the Kremlin, scheduled military exercises with Belarus. These failed to settle nerves as Western leaders continued to put forward prosed crippling sanctions that would be imposed if Russia invaded. The worst seemed possible late last week, and reports emerged of explosions and fighting in the two eastern parts of Ukraine. Russian tank numbers also increased, and we all thought it was just a matter of when we would see a Russian invasion. Biden offered Putin a summit only if he hadn’t invaded at the final hour. This is off the table now that Russia has once again pulled off another Crimea to a degree. Yesterday we heard that the two Eastern areas of Ukraine had voiced their right to become independent. The Kremlin supported them immediately and advised it had crossed the border to support a peaceful transition with a peacekeeping mission. In other words, a proxy invasion. President Biden has called this an invasion of Ukraine and announced sweeping sanctions on the Russian bank VEB and its military bank and cuts them out of any USD transactions. Individual sanctions, Biden said the adult children and members of Putin’s inner circle “share the corrupt gains of the Kremlin’s policies, and so they ought to share in the pain as well.” The sanctions on Russia’s sovereign debt expand upon Biden’s existing restrictions set in 2021 and prohibit American banks from trading shares in and or lending to several significant Russian sovereign debt funds. Prime Minister Johnson also made good on his threat of sanctions. The first tranche of sanctions would target Rossiya, IS Bank, General Bank, Promsvyazbank and the Black Sea Bank. The new sanctions also include three “very high net worth” individuals: Gennady Timchenko, Boris Rotenberg and Igor Rotenberg. Germany has halted approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline due to Russia’s actions, and the EU has agreed on sanctions to hurt Russia. The crisis had a significant impact on the markets. As you would expect, we have seen plenty of movement away from risk markets, but it hasn’t been totally black and white. Energy, oil has been driven higher during the crisis, and we’ve watched USOUSD (WTI) jump by 28% in the last three months. Price trading at $96 this week. Spot gas surged this week, hitting 6.70 but has pulled back to 4.31. Russia is a major energy supplier to Europe. This is a major card they hold. Traders will be watching oil and gas as any new aggression could cause oil to spike. We could even see $100 or higher reached again. The markets are a funny beast, and if they see the situation as calm, don’t be surprised if we continue to see price pullback. Sky-high oil prices could impact the FED. Crude prices can drive up inflation and slow down the global economy. A surge in oil could cause the Fed to rethink its pace of hiking due to growth concerns. FX, the USD and JPY have seen phases of demand during the crisis, but they have been far from dominant. Looking at this month’s trade so far, we can see that mainly the EUR has been most affected with falls to the two safe-havens. The GBP has been flat, and the AUD has been stronger. The AUD rallied yesterday as the situation developed and so far looks to be ignoring the situation. If we had seen an all-out invasion and this could still be a possibility, we would expect a traditional reaction on FX with the USD and JPY rallying on safe-haven demand. Gold has seen strong demand during the crisis. Traders jumping back into the metal as it moves back to a safe haven. This is not strange. Gold has always had multiple functions in the market, and in times of war or crisis, traders can look to it over fiat. Looking at the current month on the monthly chart, we can see this clearly in action as price has jumped by over 5%. The weekly shows a triangle breakout, but we will need to watch ongoing developments to see if buyer momentum remains. The Ukrainian crisis has hit stock indexes that could have been seen as overvalued. The Dax, in particular, has been hit hard. U.S. and Asian indexes haven’t been spared with heavy selling over the last two weeks. Markets fought back yesterday after the SP500 touched correction territory, and as mentioned above, traders will be focusing on the escalation of the crisis. If the situation intensifies, we would be looking for further lows, and if things continue to calm down, we could see counter-rallies and ranges set up. Cryptocurrencies have traded mainly lower during the crisis. Clearly, we can see at this point that they’re viewed as risk assets and are acting accordingly. It hasn’t been all one-way traffic, Kyber has added 38% YTD and so far has resisted the falls we have seen on the top 10 and top 25 indexes. Coins have been firmer since Tuesday’s updates, following other risk markets higher. Polkadot, Cardando were two top ten coins that hit new lows for 2022 before value buying returned this week. Again, we see the fortunes of most coins tied to risk demand. If things escalate, we will be looking for further declines across the top 10 and 25. The post How the Russia-Ukraine crisis has reflected on the financial market so far appeared first on Eightcap.

The New Zealand dollar has been adding around 1% since the start of the day following the third key rate hike of 0.25 percentage points to 1.0% and comments from the RBNZ on the need for further policy tightening.Wednesday also saw the announcement of the start of a balance sheet reduction, including via active selling.The central bank points to employment above the maximum sustained level and the overall economic performance above its potential, all with elevated inflation.The RBNZ also says further tightening is needed, pointing to upside risks to inflation.NZDUSD is testing 0.6800, as it did just over a month ago. The Kiwi came under pressure in the previous month due to a general risk bias in global markets. However, the paths of the NZDUSD and international markets diverged in February. The steady demand of the New Zealand currency, which gained nearly 4% from the lows of late January, contrasts with the S&P500, which lost its rising momentum about a fortnight ago and is again near the lows of the year.The main reason for that divergence is monetary policy - current and expected. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has maintained the momentum of tightening for the third time in the last six months and promises further rises later in the year.New Zealand has also found itself far removed from the worst geopolitical tensions in Europe of recent decades, continuing to benefit from record-breaking commodity prices.In this environment, it would not be surprising to see the NZDUSD rise as far as 0.7000 by the end of next month, in a break from last year's downward trend. Although, it would be too naive to expect an easy up ride for the Aussie, as the US Fed is also signalling a very hawkish stance.

PRESS RELEASE Warsaw, 23.02.2022Warsaw Chamber of Tax Administration has leased over 640 sq m. of office space with a 2000 sq m. square located next to the office building for its subordinate unit in the OKAM investment in Warsaw district of Żerań.The Chamber was looking for a location that would allow for the lease of both office space and a suitable area for customs clearance for the Customs Department VI in Warsaw, currently located in the Targówek district.These conditions were met by the warehouse, production and office complex located on the site of the former car factory at Jagiellońska Street in Warsaw.- The Chamber planned to relocate to a new office. However, the property also had to guarantee efficient logistics related to the customs clearance of goods. The infrastructure of the mixed-use complex in Żerań, its unique character on the scale of the entire Warsaw agglomeration, made it possible to fully meet the tenant's requirements. The profile of the investment allowed for a full consolidation and concentration the activities of the institution and its administration in one place - informs Piotr Szymoński, Director Office Agency at Walter Herz, the company which represented the landlord during the transaction.The new headquarters of the Customs Department VI in Warsaw and two organizational units of MCTO, they plan to move into next month, is located in a four-storey building, with a total of over 3100 sq m. of space.- Warsaw market offers many attractive spaces, which is why we feel all the more distinguished by the choice of our investment in Żerań by the Warsaw Chamber of Tax Administration. We hope that the office space leased by the Chamber along with the adjacent square will meet all of the current and future expectations of the organization. Our project in Żerań will also actively develop with our tenants and their needs in mind – says Arie Koren, CEO of OKAM City.OKAM investment in Żerań provides both office, retail and commercial space, as well as warehouse space, the height of which exceeds even 20 meters. It also has paved areas of high load capacity, intended for exhibition squares and parking lots.Most of the lease space in the complex is characterized by a great variety in terms of the offered parameters. - This makes the location a great choice for customers looking for space with different functions and non-standard dimensions in one investment - says Piotr Szymoński. The location provides direct access to the S8 route. The center of Warsaw can be reached within 20 minutes from the OKAM investment. Bus and tram stops as well as bicycle paths are located 250 m from the entrance to the complex. About Walter HerzWalter Herz company is a leading Polish entity which has been operating in the commercial real estate sector across the country. For nine years, the company has been providing comprehensive and strategic investment consulting services for tenants, investors and real estate owners. It provides extensive support for both public and private sector. Walter Herz experts assist clients in finding and leasing space, and give advice when it comes to investment and hotel projects.In addition to its headquarters in Warsaw, the company operates in Cracow and the Tri-City. Walter Herz has created Tenant Academy, first project in the country, supporting and educating commercial real estate tenants across Poland, with on-site courses held in the largest cities in the country. In order to ensure the highest ethical level of services provided, the agency introduced the Code of Good Practice. About OKAMOKAM Capital has been a leader among the real estate development companies for over 17 years. The company specializes in residential and commercial construction. OKAM portfolio includes 25 projects in 7 cities in Poland, such as Strefa PROGRESS in Łódź, INCITY and CITYFLOW in Warsaw district of Wola, MOKKA, VISTA and CENTRAL HOUSE in Mokotów, ARLET HOUSE in Ochota, ŻOLI ŻOLI in Żoliborz, BOHEMA - Strefa Praga in Praga Północ and 62 ha in Warsaw district of Żerań. In Katowice, the company is implementing investments in Dolina Trzech Stawów: DOM W DOLINIE TRZECH STAWÓW and INSPIRE. The assets of OKAM also include historic tenement houses in the center of Katowice as well as in Cracow.At the end of 2018, OKAM introduced the New Quality Policy as an expression of corporate social responsibility. Starting with the CENTRAL HOUSE investment, all OKAM residential investments will be equipped with pro-ecological and functional solutions supporting climate protection and improving the comfort of living, such as electric vehicle rental, bicycle rental, air purifiers, solar panels, systems for reusing rainwater, etc.

S&P 500 had a wild swings day, and didn‘t rise convincingly – credit markets didn‘t move correspondingly either. The upswing looks postponed unless fresh signs of broad weakness arrive. Yesterday‘s session didn‘t tell much either way – the countdown to the upswing materializing, is on even though tech didn‘t take advantage of higher bond prices. That can still come.VIX though reversed to the downside, and the relatively calmer session we‘re likely going to experience today, would be consistent with a modest attempt for stocks to move higher. I‘m though not looking for a monstrous rally, even though we‘re trading closer to the lower end of the wide S&P 500 range for this year than to its upper border. The 4,280s are so far holding but as the Mar FOMC approaches, we‘re likely to see a fresh turn south in the 500-strong index. For now, the talk of raising rates is on the back burner – Europe is in the spotlight.Note that the flight to safety on rising tensions (Treasuries, gold and oil up) didn‘t benefit the dollar. Coupled with the yields reprieve, that makes for further precious metals gains – the bull run won‘t be toppled if soothing news arrives. Likewise crude oil isn‘t going to tank below $90, and remain there. Commodities can be counted on to keep running – led by energy and agrifoods, with base metals (offering a helping hand to silver) in tow. As I wrote weeks ago, this is where the real gains are to be found.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 volume moved a little up, meaning the buying interest is still there – convincing signs of a trend change are though yet not apparent. Should prices prove to have trouble breaking lower over the next 1-2 days, this could still turn out a good place for a little long positon.Credit MarketsHYG continues basing, and keeps trading in a risk-off fashion, which is why I can‘t be wildly bullish stocks for now. Stock market gains are likely to remain subdued, noticeably subdued – as a bare minimum for today.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals fireworks continue, but a little reprieve is developing – nothing though that would break the bull. The run is only starting, and would continue through the rate raising cycle.Crude OilCrude oil is fairly well bid, and doesn‘t appear to be really dipping any time soon. Oil stocks are preparing for an upswing, and would remain one of the best performing S&P 500 sectors. Tripple digit oil is a question of time.CopperCopper‘s moment in the spotlight is approaching as commodities keeps pushing higher, and base metals are breaking up. All of these factors are inflationary.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are attempting to move up today, and further gains are likely. I‘m though looking for the 50-day moving average in Bitcoin (corresponding roughly to the mid Feb lows in Ethereum) to prove an obstacle.SummaryS&P 500 didn‘t break to new lows overnight, and appears to be picking up somewhat today. The anticipated rebound might materialize later today, and would require bond participation to be credible. I‘m not looking for sharp gains within this upswing though – the correction looks very much to have further to run. It‘s commodities and precious metals where the largest gains are to be made, with the European tensions taking the focus off inflation (momentarily). The pressure on the Fed to act decisively, is though still on as various credit spreads tell – and the same goes for the compressed yield curve speaking volumes about the (precarious) state of the real economy.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

DWAC stock spiked 28% in Tuesday's premarket after TRUTH Social began accepting users.Tuesday's regular session, however, saw DWAC jump only half as high.Digital World Acquisition Corp's share count is expected to more than quadruple one month after merger closes.Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC) stock could not compete in Tuesday's regular session with its performance in the premarket. DWAC shares exploded 28% to $108 before the markets opened on Tuesday. Once the public session got under way, however, DWAC could not even break $100. The Special Purpose Acquisition Vehicle (SPAC) slated to take former President Donald Trump's Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) public in the next month still closed up 10.2% to $92.90 on a day when most equities sold off due to tensions on the Ukraine-Russia front.Donald Trump's social media startup, TRUTH Social, began allowing app downloads on Apple devices on Sunday, February 20, which caused the price to spike on Tuesday when markets opened after the Presidents' Day holiday.Digital World Acquisition Corp Stock News: 172K waitlistedOn Tuesday, Newsweek reported that more than 172,000 accounts had been waitlisted, and other sources said many of those seeking to gain access had received error messages. Research firm Apptopia estimated there were 170,000 downloads on Monday in the US. The app was the top free download in Apple's App Store on Monday.This was good news for the most part since trouble accessing a new app due to popularity is normally a sign that it is a hit. Traders, however, began taking profits almost immediately when DWAC shares popped to $99 at the open.A steady drip of new download figures should buoy the stock in the coming days as the company has said it may take 10 days to onboard all the early adopters. The only major worry going forward is the coming share count increase. Thirty days after the merger is completed, separate shares owned by insiders, underwriters, and private investors who invested in the SPAC's separate PIPE deal (Private Investment in Public Equity) will be allowed to trade. This means that the current 37 million-odd shares will grow overnight to more than 170 million. Though this is not a standard dilution event, the increase may put downward pressure on the share price.Additionally, another 40 million "earnout" shares might be earned by company insiders and owners if the share price remains above $15, $20 or $30 a share on average in the month after the merger. Then there are the 15 million warrants that could get exercised in September 2022. By the end of the year, there could be 225 million total shares. Digital World Acquisition Corp Stock Forecast: Two top trend linesAfter opening on Tuesday at $99, the stock immediately sold down to $85.67 before rebounding throughout the rest of the day. Twice during Tuesday's session, DWAC faced resistance near $96.DWAC is trading within an ascending price channel, which gives the market confidence to hold out for higher prices. Traders should note that there are two separate possible top trend lines available to them. The first one (yellow) is the more recent trend that began on January 24. It is much steeper and takes a trajectory aimed at the 161.8% Fibonacci level at $134.90. The other (blue) began back on December 8 and takes a more conservative and gradual aim at the $120 level, which was significant during the first rally in price action back during late October.The swing highs from January 19, February 7 and 22 are all slightly higher than one another, demonstrating that and uptrend is definitely motion no matter which top trend line is preferred. Support sits at $78, $60 and $38. DWAC 1-day chart

  Stocks were volatile yesterday and the broad stock market fell by another 1%. Was it a final decline or just another leg within a downtrend? The S&P 500 index lost 1.01% on Tuesday, Feb. 22, as it extended its last week’s Thursday’s-Friday’s sell-off. The daily low was at 4,267.11, and the market closed slightly above the 4,300 mark. We’ve seen a lot of volatility following the U.S. President Biden’s speech on Russia-Ukraine conflict. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.7% higher. We may see more volatility, however it looks like a short-term bottoming pattern. The nearest important resistance level is at 4,350-4,400, marked by the recent local low and some previous support levels. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,250-4,300, among others. The S&P 500 index trades within its late January consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract – Short-Term Consolidation Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. It extended the downtrend on Monday, but it managed to stay slightly above its late January local lows. For now, it looks like a short-term consolidation. It may be a bottoming pattern before an upward correction. Yesterday, we decided to open a speculative long position before the opening of the cash market. We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index went below the 4,300 level yesterday, as investors reacted to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis news. The market may be trading within a short-term consolidation and we may see an attempt at reversing the downtrend. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index will likely bounce or fluctuate following its late last week’s sell-off We are maintaining our yesterday’s long position. We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  To the disappointment of gold bulls, the yellow metal’s upward trend will not last long. Fundamentals have already taken their toll on gold miners.  While gold remains uplifted due to the Russia-Ukraine drama, the GDXJ ETF declined for the second-straight day on Feb. 22. Moreover, I warned on numerous occasions that the junior miners are more correlated with the general stock market than their precious metals peers. As a result, when the S&P 500 slides, the GDXJ ETF often follows suit. To that point, with shades of 2018 unfolding beneath the surface, the Russia-Ukraine headlines have covered up the implications of the current correction. However, the similarities should gain more traction in the coming weeks. For context, I wrote on Feb. 22: When the Fed’s rate hike cycle roiled the NASDAQ 100 in 2017-2018, the GDXJ ETF suffered too. Thus, while the Russia-Ukraine drama has provided a distraction, the fundamentals that impacted both asset classes back then are present now. Please see below: To explain, the green line above tracks the GDXJ ETF in 2018, while the black line above tracks the NASDAQ 100. If you analyze the performance, you can see that the Fed’s rate hike cycle initially rattled the former and the latter rolled over soon after. However, the negativity persisted until Fed Chairman Jerome Powell performed a dovish pivot and both assets rallied. As a result, with the Fed Chair unlikely to perform a dovish pivot this time around, the junior miners have some catching up to do. Furthermore, while the S&P 500 also reacts to the geopolitical risks, the Fed’s looming rate hike cycle is a much bigger story. With the U.S. equity benchmark also following its price path from 2018, a drawdown to new 2022 lows should help sink the GDXJ ETF. Please see below: Source: Morgan Stanley To explain, the yellow line above tracks the S&P 500 from March 2018 until February 2019, while the blue line above tracks the index's current movement. If you analyze the performance, it's a near-splitting image. Moreover, while Morgan Stanley Chief Equity Strategist Michael Wilson thinks a relief rally to ~4,600 is plausible, he told clients that "this correction looks incomplete." "Rarely have we witnessed such weak breadth and havoc under the surface when the S&P 500 is down less than 10%. In our experience, when such a divergence like this happens, it typically ends with the primary index catching down to the average stock," he added. As a result, while a short-term bounce off of oversold conditions may materialize, the S&P 500's downtrend should resume with accelerated fervor. In the process, the GDXJ ETF should suffer materially as the medium-term drama unfolds.  To that point, the Fed released the minutes from its discount rate meetings on Jan. 18 and Jan. 26. While the committee left interest rates unchanged, the report revealed: “Given ongoing inflation pressures and strong labor market conditions, a number of directors noted that it might soon become appropriate to begin a process of removing policy accommodation. The directors of three Reserve Banks favored increasing the primary credit rate to 0.50 percent, in response to elevated inflation or to help manage economic and financial stability risks over the longer term.” For context, the hawkish pleas came from the Cleveland, St. Louis, and Kansas City Feds. Moreover, the last time Fed officials couldn’t reach a unanimous decision was October 2019. As a result, the lack of agreement highlights the monetary policy uncertainty that should help upend financial assets in the coming months. As evidence, the report also revealed: Source: U.S. Fed Thus, while I’ve highlighted on numerous occasions that a bullish U.S. economy is bearish for the PMs, the Russia-Ukraine drama has been a short-term distraction. However, with Fed officials highlighting that growth and inflation meet their thresholds for tightening monetary policy, higher real interest rates and a stronger USD Index will have much more influence over the medium term. To that point, IHS Markit released its U.S. Composite PMI on Feb. 22. With the headline index increasing from 51.1 in January to 56.0 in February, an excerpt from the report read: “February data highlighted a sharp and accelerated increase in new business among private sector companies that was the fastest in seven months. Firms mentioned that sales were boosted by the retreat of the pandemic, improved underlying demand, expanded client bases, aggressive marketing campaigns and new partnerships. Customers reportedly made additional purchases to avoid future price hikes. Quicker increases in sales (trades) were evident among both manufacturers and service providers.” More importantly, though: Source: IHS Markit In addition, since the Fed’s dual mandate includes inflation and employment, the report revealed: Source: IHS Markit Likewise, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, added: “With demand rebounding and firms seeing a relatively modest impact on order books from the Omicron wave, future output expectations improved to the highest for 15 months, and jobs growth accelerated to the highest since last May, adding to the upbeat picture.” If that wasn't enough, the Richmond Fed released its Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity on Feb. 22. While the headline index wasn't so optimistic, the report revealed that "the third component in the composite index, employment, increased to 20 from 4 in January" and that "firms continued to report increasing wages." For context, the dashed light blue line below tracks the month-over-month (MoM) change, while the dark blue line below tracks the three-month moving average. If you analyze the former's material increase, it's another data point supporting the Fed's hawkish crusade. Source: Richmond Fed Finally, the Richmond Fed also released its Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activity on Feb. 22. For context, the U.S. service sector suffers the brunt of COVID-19 waves. However, the recent decline in cases has increased consumers’ appetite for in-person activities. The report revealed: “Fifth District service sector activity showed improvement in February, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The revenues index increased from 4 in January to 11 in February. The demand index remained in expansionary territory at 23. Firms also reported increases in spending, as the index for capital expenditures, services expenditures, and equipment and software spending all increased.” Furthermore, with the employment index increasing from 12 to 14, the wages index increasing from 41 to 46, and the average workweek index increasing from 9 to 10, the labor market strengthened in February. Likewise, the index that tracks businesses’ ability to find skilled workers increased from -21 to -19. As a result, inflation, employment and economic growth create the perfect cocktail for the Fed to materially tighten monetary policy in the coming months.  Source: Richmond Fed The bottom line? While the Russia-Ukraine saga may dominate the headlines for some time, the bearish fundamentals that hurt gold and silver in 2021 remain intact: the U.S. economy is on solid footing, and demand is still fueling inflation. Moreover, with information technology and communication services’ stocks – which account for roughly 39% of the S&P 500 – highly allergic to higher interest rates, the volatility should continue to weigh on the GDXJ ETF. As such, while gold may have extended its shelf life, mining stocks may not be so lucky. In conclusion, the PMs were mixed on Feb. 22, as the news cycle continues to swing financial assets in either direction. However, while headlines may have a short-term impact, technicals and fundamentals often reign supreme over the medium term. As a result, lower lows should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks in the coming months. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

(Because it has never been regarded as a safe haven in times of trouble & always goes down when stock markets panic. Also been proven to be no inflation hedge of course). Ripple reversed in between resistance at 7250/80 & 7610/30 & continues lower as expected. Ethereum breaks the 500 day moving average at 2450/2400 for yet another sell signal. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis Bitcoin breaks 40800/500 for a medium term sell signal in the 3 month bear trend initially targeting 38000/37500 then 36400/36000 & probably as far as 34000. Do not be surprised to see a test of the 100 week moving average at 32690/700 (today's value). Gains are likely to be limited in the bear trend with first resistance at 36300/400 then 39400/450. Further resistance at 40900/41000. Shorts need stops above 42200. Ripple lower again as expected to test very important 100 week moving average support at 6190/6160. Longs need stops below 6100. A break lower quickly targets 5800. If you are very brave & want to try longs at 6190/6160, look for targets of 6660/90, & perhaps as far as 6900 for profit taking. Ethereum breaks the 500 day moving average at 2450/2400 for yet another sell signal in the bear trend as we look for a retest of the January low at 2160/55. I would not rely on this holding the downside & if we continue lower look for a test of very strong support at 1900/1850. Longs need stops below 1750. If this breaks there is likely to be another very significant move to the downside. Bulls desperately need prices to hold above 2500 now to regain control. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

WTI is trading more calmly on Wednesday and is currently roughly flat in the $92.00 area awaiting fresh geopolitical developments. As geopolitical risk premia remains elevated, oil is likely to remain a buy on dips. A possible US/Iran nuclear deal, which would free up 1.3M BPD in exports, is a downside risk traders should note. After Tuesday’s choppy session which saw front-month WTI futures print fresh seven-year highs at $96.00 per barrel before swinging lower again, oil markets are experiencing calmer conditions on Wednesday. WTI is currently trading towards the top of mid-$90 to mid-$92.00 intra-day ranges near the $92.00 mark, where it is broadly flat on the day. Wednesday’s roughly $2.0 intra-day range compares to Tuesday’s intra-day range of more than $5.50. Crude oil markets are continuing to monitor developments regarding the Ukraine crisis as fears about a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine remain elevated and Western nations hit Russia with sanctions over its recognition of the independence of breakaway Ukrainian regions. These sanctions have so far been focused on targeting Russian banks and wealthy individuals, with US President Joe Biden on Tuesday making it clear that the US wasn’t yet to target Russian commodity exports. The geopolitical impetus for WTI to push above $96.00 and on towards $100, thus, is not yet there. But US officials have signalled that if Russia takes further aggressive action against Ukraine all options for further sanctions are on the table and this is a key risk oil traders will be monitoring in the coming days. “The prospect of more conflict in Ukraine should safeguard the geopolitical risk premium,” said one commodity analyst, whilst another warned that “There is a risk that Russia will retaliate to the sanctions by reducing deliveries of its own accord”. Thus, for now, it seems likely that dips back towards $90.00 will continue to be bought, as has been the case over the past two or so weeks. Eyes will be on a meeting of the UN General Assembly on Ukraine later in the day, which should generate fresh geopolitical headlines, as well as US weekly oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute at 2130GMT. Another theme at the top of oil traders’ minds is the prospect of a US/Iran nuclear deal. A deal would pave the way for the US to lift sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports. According to ING, this would ease concerns over OPEC+ spare capacity (or lack thereof). The bank said “Iran is currently producing at around 2.5mln BPD but is estimated to have a capacity of closer to 3.8mln BPD, therefore, over time there is the potential for 1.3mln BPD of additional supply to come onto the market”. “Nuclear talks in Vienna are reaching a sensitive and important point” said Iran's foreign minister on Wednesday.

  The Natural Gas flight just landed after hitting its second and last target yesterday. The perfect trade does not exist, but this one has been developing pretty well following our flying map. In today’s edition, I will provide a trade review for Natural Gas futures (NGH22) following my last projections published on Friday Feb-11, for which the stop was also updated last Wednesday and trailed again last Thursday. Trade Plan Just to remember, our initial plan was relying on a gas market having to cope with stronger demand to fuel and increasing industrial activity after being surprised by the warming mid-February weather forecast. Hence, the projected rebounding floor (or support level) provided, which was ideal for the Henry Hub given the unyielding global demand for US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), providing a catapulting upward momentum. Then, it took a few days for the first suggested objective at $4.442 to be passed, and a few extra days for the second target located at the $4.818 level to be hit (as it was yesterday). Meanwhile, as I explained in more detail in my last risk-management-related article to secure profits, our subscribers were kindly and promptly invited to place their initial stop just below the $3.629 level (below one-month previous swing low), before receiving a couple of trading alerts suggesting they manually trail it up around the $3.886 level (around breakeven), then one more time up towards 4.180 (which corresponds to the 50% distance between initial entry and target 1), and finally to be lifted up to 4.368 optimally. Consequently, after a reconnaissance mission got close enough to target number 2, the Nat-Gas flight started running out of kerosene after passing through the first target like a fighter jet would break the sound barrier. Therefore, after getting refueled at a lower altitude (just above our highest elevation trailing stop) by a refuelling aircraft, the jet was finally ready to point and lock its last target before striking it. Here is a picture-by-picture record of that trade. First step: flight preparation on carrier ship Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Second step: prices catapulted and stop lifted at breakeven once the mid-point target was reached Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Third step: target one hit and stop dragged up Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Zoom to target one (4H chart): Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) Fourth step: mission reconnaissance to target two and refueling aircraft en route to refill the jet tank (stop trailing again) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Zoom to lock final target (4H chart): Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) Fifth step: final strike to target two Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Now, let’s zoom one more time into the 4H chart to observe the recent price action all around the abovementioned steps of our flying map: Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) As you may observe, target one is now serving as a new landing space (support) for a new ranging market cycle. That’s all, folks, for today. I hope that you enjoyed the flight with our company! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

14893 - I hope you managed to hold on the short for the collapse as far as 14000. EuroStoxx 50 MARCH breaks important support at 3900/3880 to hit my first target of 3810/00. FTSE 100 MARCH crashed as far as 7251 as Ukraine is attacked. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Dax has crashed as far as my target & strong longer term moving average support at 14100/000. A break below 13900 should trigger significant moves to the downside, initially targeting 13750/710. However a bounce from 14000 is certainly possible, initially targeting 14280/330, perhaps as far as resistance at 14500/550. EuroStoxx broke important support at 3900/3880 initially targeting 3810/00 (hit) & perhaps as far as 3750/40. Longs are very risky but I cannot rule out a bounce from 3810/00 to 3880/90. Further gains meet strong resistance at 3940/50. FTSE crashed as far as 7251 as Ukraine is attacked. Strong resistance at 7315/40. Above 7350 however can target 7390/7400. Further losses certainly are possible to 7190/80. Expect strong support at 7130/10. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

  The war has begun: after a few weeks of tense situation, Russia has taken a radical step and started an invasion of Ukraine. How will this affect gold? Boy, ! The Russia-Ukraine conflict is intensifying swiftly. On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the recognition of two self-proclaimed republics in eastern Ukraine (Donetsk and Luhansk regions). The decree also included an order to send Russian troops there as “peacekeeping forces”. In response, Ukraine declared a state of emergency, while the EU banned purchases of Russian government bonds and imposed sanctions on most members of the Russian parliament. Germany froze approvals for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. American President Joe Biden also released the first tranche of sanctions against Russia, targeted mainly at banks and sovereign debt, and promised further moves: Today, I am announcing the first tranche of sanctions to impose a cost on Russia in response to their actions yesterday. We’ll continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates. We are implementing full blocking sanctions on two large Russian financial institutions VEB and military bank. We are implementing comprehensive sanctions on Russia’s sovereign debt. That means we’ve cut off Russia’s government from Western financing. Starting tomorrow, we’ll also impose sanctions on Russia’s elites and family members. Putin wasn’t apparently impressed by these sanctions, as he authorized a military operation in eastern Ukraine early Thursday. The invasion has started. Indeed, there are reports of Russian troops crossing the Ukrainian border in multiple locations, and of explosions in many of the country’s cities, including the capital, Kyiv. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted that: Putin has just launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Peaceful Ukrainian cities are under strikes. This is a war of aggression. Ukraine will defend itself and will win. The world can and must stop Putin. The time to act is now.   Implications for Gold What does Russia’s invasion of Ukraine imply for the gold market? Well, risk aversion has soared amid the conflict. Equities are plunging while safe-haven assets are soaring. This, of course, applies also to gold, which rallied to $1,905 on Wednesday, the highest level since January 2021, as the chart below shows. In response to the invasion, the price of the yellow metal continued its upward trend, soaring to $1,945 on early Thursday, as one can see in the chart below. The move was perfectly in line with what I wrote on Tuesday: “if Russia invades Ukraine, the yellow metal should gain further.” Now, the question is: what next? I’m not a military expert, so I have no idea how the conflict will end. However, I know three things. The first is that the conflict will last some time. During the escalation period, gold prices will be driven up by risk aversion and safe-haven demand. Second, the conflict will start to de-escalate and end at some point. Then, we could see a correction in the gold market. Having said that, the yellow metal doesn’t have to immediately return to the pre-conflict level, as it could be supported by other factors, such as worries about inflation, and generally a rather bullish momentum. My point is that geopolitical events usually exert only a short-lived impact on gold, as they don’t affect the true fundamentals of the gold market. These will be shaped by the inflation path and the Fed’s reaction to it. Third, the upcoming weeks could be hot for the gold market. Don’t let emotions affect your investments. Remember the initial stage of the coronavirus pandemic? We all felt fear then – but it wasn’t the best investment advisor. War is also terrifying, but so far the conflict is limited to Ukraine and Russia and we don’t know yet whether the invasion will really escalate into a full-blown, bloody war. Be calm and stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

as far as 4350/60 before prices collapsed. Nasdaq MARCH shorts at 14100/150 worked perfectly on the collapsed 14100/150 to my targets of 13850/800, 13600/580 & to within 100 ticks of VERY IMPORTANT SUPPORT AT 13000/12950 as I write this morning. Emini Dow Jones MARCH may have just completed a huge head & shoulders reversal pattern for an important longer term sell signal. Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P breaks incredibly important support at 4195/4185. Holding below here could trigger another 15% correction to the downside. We have already hit 4116. If we continue lower look for 4065/55. Key resistance at 4195/4205. As long as this hold, the outlook is very negative. However if we close the day above here it signals a false break & we could get quite a short squeeze. A break above 4215 today should confirm a move towards 4260/70, perhaps as far as 4300/10. Nasdaq tests very important longer term support at 13000/12900. Definitely worth trying a long as this could be a low for the correction at this stage. Longs need stops below 12800. A break lower however could send prices down another 100 points eventually. Holding support at 13000/12900 targets 13500/600. If we continue higher look for 13800/850. Emini Dow Jones broke support at 33200/33000 for an important longer term sell signal. So far we have hit 32226. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE VERY IMPORTANT LONGER TERM SUPPORT AT 32400/300 SO HOLDING HERE TODAY TRIGGERS A GOOD RECOVERY TO STRONG RESISTANCE AT 32900/33000. There are the only two levels that matter today. A break below 32000 is then a very important longer term sell signal & could see 750 tick losses almost immediately. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

Bitcoin was down 1% on Wednesday, ending the day near $37,600, but it is losing another 7% on Thursday morning, trading below $35,000. Ethereum has lost 12% to $2,340 in the last 24 hours. Leading altcoins show a proportionate decline. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, decreased by 8.4% over the day, to $1.57 trillion. The index of fear and greed of the crypto market fell by 2 points to 23, but being updated once a day, it clearly does not take into account the latest dramatic movements. The aggravation of tension around Ukraine exerted pressure on risky assets. There are growing risks of escalation associated with the introduction of Russian troops into Donbass. In such a situation, risky assets may continue to decline further. At the moment, we see that cryptocurrencies are selling stronger than developed world stocks (although not as extreme as Russian ones), confirming the risky nature of these assets and how they are not a replacement for gold. According to Glassnode, the wallets of long-term investors (hodlers) hold record volumes of BTC (76.5%). The volume of bitcoins, which have been without movement for more than 10 years, is also growing (12.6%). Thus, almost 90% of all currently available coins are out of the market. Now another country besides El Salvador may accept bitcoin as a means of payment. Senator Indira Kempis is developing a bill on cryptocurrencies and intends to convince the Mexican government to follow the "Salvadorian scenario" by recognizing BTC as a means of payment. Former SEC official Joseph Hall called the department's chances of losing the lawsuit against Ripple high. The regulator accuses the company of selling unregistered securities under the guise of XRP tokens.

USOIL continues to climb WTI crude surged after Russia launched a military operation in eastern Ukraine. The latest market jitters met support over 90.70 which sits next to the 20-day moving average. Sentiment would stay optimistic as long as price action is above this demand zone. A previous horizontal consolidation allowed the bulls to catch their breath and accumulate for the current push. A close above 95.50 would send the price towards the landmark 100.00. An overbought RSI may cause a brief pause if momentum traders take profit. NZDUSD hits resistance The New Zealand dollar jumped after the RBNZ raised rates for the third time in a row. The pair met selling pressure in the supply zone (0.6810) from the sell-off in late January. An overextended RSI led short-term bulls to take profit in that congestion area. However, the rebound trajectory may attract buying interest with the current pullback seen as an opportunity. 0.6680 is the next support after a drop below 0.6730. A deeper correction may test 0.6600, which is important support from the daily chart. AUDUSD seeks support The Australian dollar retreats amid cautious market sentiment. A break above the recent peak at 0.7245 suggests a strong bullish commitment. The pair is heading towards January’s high at 0.7310. A bullish breakout could turn things around in the medium term. After the RSI ventured into the overbought area, the bullish impetus stalled as intraday buyers took profit. 0.7165 is the next support as the RSI swings into the oversold area. Further down, 0.7100 is a key floor to keep the rebound intact.

The worst case scenario - Russian invasion of Ukraine - is materializing. We try to analyze its consequences for the economy and financial markets Oil price increases past $100 per barrel Russia is a key player on the energy commodities market, especially important for Europe. Situation on the oil market proves it - oil prices jumped above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014. Russia is exporting around 5 million barrels of oil each day, around 5% of global demand. Around a half of that is exported to the European Union. If the West decides to cut Russia off the SWIFT settlements system, Russian exports to the European Union could be halted. In such a scenario oil prices could jump $20-30 per barrel. In our opinion, the war risk premium included in current oil barrel prices amounts to $15-20. Europe is the main recipient of Russian oil. Source: Bloomberg, XTB Research Gold and palladium rally Conflict is the main driver of moves on the gold market. It is not the first time when gold proves to be a good store of value at times of geopolitical conflicts. Ounce of gold trades over 3% higher today, near $1,970, and just slightly over $100 below its all-time highs. Russia is an important producer of palladium, an important metal for the automotive sector. Source: Bloomberg, XTB Research Russia is a significant producer of palladium, which is a key metal in production of catalytic converters for the automotive sector. Palladium prices rallied almost 8% today. Fear means sell-off on the market Global stock markets are taking a hit not seen since 2020. However, panic is not as big as it was in early-2020. Uncertainty is the most important driver for global stock markets now as investors do not know what will come next. Correction on Nasdaq-100 futures deepened past 20% today. A big part of this drop, however, was caused by expectations of Fed tightening. DAX futures dropped around 15% since mid-January and trade near pre-pandemic highs. DE30 trades to halt decline at pre-pandemic high. Source: xStation5 Business in Ukraine is in danger It should not come as a surprise that Russian companies and companies with big exposure to Russia are the ones taking the biggest hit. Russian RTS dropped over 60% off the October 2021 high and briefly traded below 2020 lows! Polymetal International is a company worth mentioning - stock is plunging over 30% on London Stock Exchange as market fears sanctions will hit Anglo-Russian companies. Renault is also taking a hit as Russia is the second biggest market for the company. Banks with large exposure to Russia - UniCredit and Societe Generale - are also dropping hard. Even higher inflation From an economic point of view the situation is clear - military conflict will generate a new inflationary impulse. Prices of almost all commodities are trading higher, especially energy commodities. However, in case of commodity markets, a lot will depend on how conflict impacts logistics. Keep in mind that global logistics have not recovered from Covid-19 hit yet and now another negative factor is surfacing. According to the New York Fed index, global supply chains are the most tight on record. Central bankers' headache Covid-19 panic has been very short-lived, thanks to an enormous support offered by central banks. However, such an action is unlikely now. As conflict is inflationary and has a bigger impact on supply and logistics rather than demand, inflation becomes an even bigger problem for major central banks. On the other hand, quick tightening monetary policy would only magnify market turmoil. In our opinion, major central banks will continue with announced policy tightening. Risk of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed in March dropped but a 25 bp rate hike looks like a done deal. What's next? A key question for global markets now is - how much will the conflict escalate? An answer to this question will be a key to calming the markets. Once it is answered, calculations of impact on sanctions and speculations over changes in economic policy will begin.

S&P 500 reprieve that wasn‘t – the buyers didn‘t arrive, and the overnight military action sparking serious asset moves, shows that buying the dip would have been a bad idea. And it still is. Risk-on assets are likely to suffer, and I‘m not looking for a sharp, V-shaped rebound. The partial retracement seen in cryptos wouldn‘t translate to much upside in paper assets – it will likely be sold into as the bottom would take time to form. The safe haven premium seen in precious metals, crude oil and other real assets would ebb and flow, but a higher base has been established. The world has changed overnight, and recognition thereof is still pending.I think it‘s clear why I had been derisking as much as possible, wary of volatility both ways in paper assets, and betting instead on a mix of real assets. This has been hugely paying off to subscribers and readers likewise favoring gold and crude oil with some copper added for good measure.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis isn‘t how an S&P 500 bottom looks like – downswing continues with more volatility ahead.Credit MarketsHYG is going down again, and credit markets are turning risk-off – look for Treasuries to do relatively better next, with little impact upon stocks.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals fireworks continue, and the upswing got a poweful ally. Whatever retracement seen next, would be marginal in light of the developments.Crude OilCrude oil upswing can be counted on to continue, and oil stocks would remain among the best performing S&P 500 pockets. Black gold is though notorious for its wild volatility, and the coming days won‘t be an exception.CopperCopper upswing would take time to develop, especially now – but the breakout in base metals is on, the inflationary messaging is still there and thriving.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos aren‘t in a rally mode, but are attempting to put in a low. I don‘t think it would hold, the dust hasn‘t settled yet.SummaryS&P 500 is plunging, and attempting to base, but more selling would inevitably hit. The overnight dust hasn‘t settled yet, but the panic lows would not happen today. Even if it weren‘t for geopolitics, stocks were in rough waters for weeks already, in a serious, yields and liquidity driven correction, with a slowing real economy on top. For all the short-term focus, the buying opportunity would materialize only once the Fed turns – by autumn 2022. The best places to be in right now, are those presented below – precious metals and commodities – as inflation fires continue to rage on.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Russia is attacking Ukraine on multiple fronts, including in Kyiv. A collapse of the Ukrainian government could allow Putin to order a retreat. The West's sanctions may keep oil prices bid, but markets could recover from the current downfall.The Russian army is accelerating its offense in Ukraine – and undoubtedly moving faster than Western diplomats, scrambling to agree on sanctions. Markets have woken up to a dark day of war and have reacted rapidly. However, a quick end to major hostilities could trigger a relief rally. At least a partial one.Reports from Kyiv show various plumes of smoke from inside and outside the city and Russian helicopters coming from Belarus. The conflict is far more than a "peacekeeping mission" in Ukraine's east.Events are moving fast and there is massive disinformation at times of war. Ukraine declared martial law and seems determined to fight back and halt the advance of Russian troops – but it could be beyond them. Some 190,000 troops – some rebels and mostly Russians – are on the move, attacking Ukraine on various fronts. Russian President Vladimir Putin's aim is to bring about the collapse of the government in Kyiv, which leans toward NATO and the EU. Overwhelmed by Russian firepower, cyberattacks, and propaganda, leaders in Ukraine could capitulate – at least to prevent further bloodshed. If Putin manages to defenestrate the Ukrainian government and install his puppets, he could announce "Mission Accomplished" and move some of the troops back home. While a long-term insurgency would follow, the world could move away from focusing on the conflict. If sanctions remain tame and threats on NATO countries subside, there could be a relief rally. Stocks and risk currencies would have room to rise, while gold – which has benefited from speculation and exuberance – would fall. The safe-haven yen, which is more sensitive to geopolitics than to other worries, would retreat. Oil would depend on European sanctions – would the West disconnect from Russia? In that case, petrol prices would surge. However, if energy is excluded, there is room for a gradual decline.

I discussed the potential for the invasion into Ukraine with a friend over the past few days and how this new war may change the global economy. We ended up discussing the Invasion of Kuwait that took place in August 1990. At that time, as soon as the Invasion of Kuwait started, consumers almost immediately changed their spending and financial habits.Suddenly, people stopped going out to dinner after work. They stopped going out for drinks. They also stopped playing computer games and spending money on most outside entertainment (movies and movie rentals – back in the Blockbuster days). In short, consumers became fascinated by the televised war and lost focus on almost everything else.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! As the conversation progressed, we started talking about how the US Federal Reserve may suddenly find that consumers have begun pulling away from traditional spending habits and how quickly these consumer trends can alter the economic landscape. For example, nearly 60 days into the Invasion of Kuwait, my friend remembered the US economy shifted into a much slower gear, and consumers continued to stay away from more normal spending habits.If this happens in today's super-inflated world, we may see a sudden shift in inflation, retail, housing, and general consumer demand very quickly. Recently, I started receiving messages from friends and clients worldwide who are focused on the Invasion of Ukraine – a whole new generation of people who may become entranced in the televised war (again).Consumer Retail May Suffer A -60% CollapseThis XRT Weekly Chart highlights the pre-COVID support levels that may become future targets if consumer spending habits suddenly shift. XRT has already fallen nearly -32% from the recent highs. If consumers continue to move away from outside economic activities, or more common post-COVID economic activities, we may see the Retail sector continue to move lower.Housing May Contract Faster Than ExpectedReal Estate may contract to near the COVID lows if consumers shy away from chasing speculative price trends in housing. Flipping houses has become a very hot industry over the past 5+ years. Yet, suddenly larger firms like Zillow and OpenDoor started offloading their Real Estate inventory because consumer demand shifted ahead of the US Fed's proposed rate hikes in 2022. The double-whammy of rising rates and war may be similar to what happened in the US between 1993 and 1994 – a very stagnant housing market.IYR has already fallen -16.5% from the highs and may decline to levels closer to -30% (or more) before finding a bottom. Wars tend to shift economies and spending habits very quickly.What To Stay Focused On Amid All The NoiseTraders should stay keenly focused on market risks and weaknesses. I expected the conflict in Ukraine to have been priced into the US markets over the past 7+ days. However, I believe the markets were unprepared for this scale or invasion and will attempt to settle fair stock price valuation levels as the conflict continues. This is not the same US/Global market Bullish trend we've become used to trading over the past 5+ years. The market dynamics and trends are changing from what we have experienced over the past 40 years for stocks and bonds. The 60/40 portfolio is costing you money now. Traders need an edge to stay ahead of these markets trends and to protect and profit from big trends.The only way to navigate the financial markets safely, no matter the direction, is through technical analysis. By following assets and money flows, we identify trend changes and move our capital into whatever index, sector, industry, bond, commodity, country, and even currency ETF. By following the money, you become part of new emerging trends and can profit during weak stock or bond conditions.What Trading Strategies Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

Today we’re starting to watch what could be a developing reversal pattern on the NDX100 D1 chart. I’m sure we’re all aware of the disaster that the markets faced yesterday. The script went to que as we watched stock indexes plunge after news that Russia had invaded Ukraine hit the markets. This continued what had been a long sharp downtrend on the NDX100 and other major stock indexes. But what a lot of us may not have seen coming was a risk recovery late in the US session. Not only did stock indexes reverse losses but other risk markets followed and safe havens plunged, refer to gold. Why did we see the change in momentum? Could markets have simply reached a value point and shaken off the news? Could news of Russia offering to sit down and talk with Ukrain spurred buyer interest? Regardless of the reason it happened, now we are looking at levels and patterns being formed to start trying to form some opinion of the current picture. Firstly, we can see that the low stopped in a demand area and for now price closed firmly above the test. Another pattern we are starting to watch is in early development but has started to show some shape. That pattern is an inverse head and shoulders and these can be reversal patterns. Yes, we have the first shoulder and a head but we still need a second shoulder and a break of a neckline to fully confirm a completed pattern. It’s definitely something to keep in mind but as mentioned it’s still a fair way off. For now, we want to see buyers continue to post gains to show control, traders still need to keep the macro situation in mind as any escalations could resume the selling. NDX100 D1 Chart The post Market Update: NDX100 posts surprise rally reversal pattern starting to form? appeared first on Eightcap.

Ripple made a low for the day almost exactly at very important 100 week moving average support at 6190/6160. If you were very brave & bought in to longs at 6190/6160, worked perfectly hitting targets of 6660/90 & 6900 for profit taking. Ethereum broke the 500 day moving average at 2450/2400 for a sell signal but unexpectedly reversed from 2300. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis Bitcoin beat first resistance at 36300/400 to test second resistance at 39400/450. Bulls need a break above 40000 this weekend to target the 500 day moving average at 41900/42000. Unlikely but if we continue higher look for strong resistance at 44100/400. Holding second resistance at 39400/450 targets 38000/37800. If we continue lower look for 36400/36000 & probably as far as 34400/34000. Do not be surprised to see a test of very strong support at 100 week moving average at 33000/800 (today's value). Ripple made a low for the day almost exactly at very important 100 week moving average support at 6190/6160. If you were very brave & bought in to longs at 6190/6160, worked perfectly hitting targets of 6660/90 & 6900 for profit taking. However we continue higher to 7219. EXPECT VERY STRONG RESISTANCE AT 7270/7370. Shorts need stops above 7450. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 7740/7800. Holding below 6900 is more negative over the weekend & risks a slide to 6600 before a retest of very important 100 week moving average support at 6190/6160. Longs need stops below 6100. A break lower quickly targets 5800. Ethereum made a bounce from 100 pips below the big support level & bulls unexpectedly have held prices above 2500 now to regain control. Minor resistance at 2670/90. A break above 2750 signals further gains to 2800, perhaps as far as resistance at 2790/2810. A high for the weekend possible here. Support at the 500 day moving average at 2450/2400. A break below 2300 can retest the January low at 2160/55. I would not rely on this holding the downside & if we continue lower look for a test of very strong support at 1900/1850. Longs need stops below 1750. If this breaks there is likely to be another very significant move to the downside. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

Bitcoin price drops 7% on geopolitical news but is close to offering a nice entry-level. Ethereum price deteriorates 10% for the day and still has 7% to go before some solid support is present. XRP price sees early price bounce-off but might be too soon as better entry levels are present further down the line. Cryptocurrencies are waking up to a shocker this morning as the whole Eastern border of Ukraine is under siege of missile attacks by Russia and Belarus. This afternoon, NATO and the EU are scrambling for emergency meetings to further retaliate with sanctions cutting off Russia entirely from the financial system. In the meantime, investors are hoarding cash and pulling out their money into safe havens, but in the process, offering some lovely entry levels for the longer term. Bitcoin price breaks below $36,709 and looks to test support at $32,650, below $33,000 The Bitcoin (BTC) price got slaughtered this morning as the Russian offensive started in early trading hours, shedding 7% of its market value. As it is looking for support, it will be vital for market participants to await the right time to execute any trades. It is too late now for both bears and bulls to get in as markets will or could go either way, and both parties are better off waiting for the right entry-level. BTC price will favour bulls with an entry below the $34,000 key-level as above, for now, no actual entry points are offered. At $32,650, a solid entry-level is offered, going back to June 25. With this, BTC price would need to shed another 5% on top of the 7% it has already lost in early morning trading. Expect this to unfold once the US sessions kicks in and further deterioration of asset prices happens across the board. BTC/USD daily chart Should Putin step up military action, expect to see further deterioration of price action in several asset classes, certainly when civilian casualties are reported. Expect $32,650 to be breached and see BTC further deepen its losses towards $31,322. Following that, the famous distribution zone will have been entered, and short-term bulls and long-term investors will be buying up bits and pieces of the price action for a rebound once the situation stabilises. Ethereum bulls should open up their wallets as price action is set to offer some great entry points Ethereum (ETH) price is nearing some interesting levels as price action dips to the downside in an accelerated move as Russian troops are attacking several important cities in Ukraine. Whilst Europe tries to deal with the situation, more reports have come in of several critical Ukrainian military installations being fired upon by missiles and mortars. Putin proclaimed conducting a military surgical operation to demilitarise the country and succeed. ETH price gets under pressure as investors hoard cash and kick out any risky asset in the process, as Ethereum already lost 10% in early morning trading. Expect more downside to come towards $2,148, losing 18% of its value in the process. At the same time, this is an excellent window of opportunity for investors to buy ETH coins at a very lucrative discount once the situation stabilises. ETH/USD daily chart As this story develops further into the trading day, expect to see a deterioration of ETH price action towards $1,928 or even $1,688 – breaching $2,000, should more reports come in from Russian troops entering mainland Ukraine and taking over control of key cities. That would mean that ETH is set to lose another 17% to 25% in the process as the US session will be expected to deepen the loss intraday. In the meantime, Ethereum price action has entered a distribution zone, offering an excellent opportunity for investors to start building a stake in for any upside potential to come. XRP price is at risk of losing another 25% as first support is being tested Ripple's (XRP) price sees an initial bounce off the $0.6264 level this morning as Europe awakes to some severe military threats spilling over into global markets with risk assets being slashed across the board. XRP price action already shredded 10% at the time of writing and is seen bouncing off technically and recovering back to more moderate levels – but still holding heavy losses. As the situation further develops, expect cryptocurrencies to react instantly in both directions as more headlines and news hit the wires today. Expect $0.6264 not to withstand further selling pressure since the situation remains fragile. As possible combat headlines start to accelerate, expect to see another dip lower in XRP to $0.5852 or even $0.5231, adding another 6% to 16% of losses to the price action. With this, the Relative Strength Index will be diving deeply into oversold territory, making this area an excellent entry level for investors going long once the situation dies down and the market falls back to a more normal level. XRP/USD daily chart In the worst case, XRP could dip below $0.50 and tick $0.48 in the process, the lowest level since June 2021. Depending on the situation expect to see bulls either waiting and holding, or taking the bounce off the historic $0.48 level and the monthly S1 support level, which they may use as a point of entry for going long if the situation calms down in the near future.

USDJPY bounces off daily support The US dollar jumps as traders seek safe haven assets over the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The pair struggled for bids after it turned away from the double top (116.20) and has been grinding down a falling trend line. However, the daily support at 114.40 has proved to be a solid demand area by keeping February’s rebound intact. Strong momentum above the trend line and 115.20 forced sellers out of the game and would attract more purchasing power. A close above 116.20 would extend the rally towards 117.00 XAUUSD seeks support Gold whipsawed as markets await the Western response to the invasion of Ukraine. The rally accelerated after it broke above last June’s high at 1912. Momentum trading pushed the price to September 2020’s highs (1975) before reversing its course. 1880 is a fresh support after intraday buyers took profit. As sentiment shifts to the bullish side, the current pullback combined with a depressed RSI could trigger a bargain-hunting behavior. Renewed buying frenzy may send the metal to the psychological level of 2000. US 500 lacks support The S&P 500 weakens as investors fear spillover from the conflict in Ukraine. A break below the daily support at 4280 further put the bulls on the defensive. Last May’s lows, near 4040, are the next target as liquidation continues. The index may have entered the bear market as the sell-off could speed up in the coming weeks. On the daily chart, the RSI’s double-dip in the oversold area may offer a temporary relief. 4350 is the first hurdle ahead and the bears may look to fade any rebound amid soured sentiment.

After reaching the lows for the month, the first cryptocurrency received support from buyers, as was the case at the end of January. Of course, the growth dynamics were relatively modest, which indicates the caution of buyers. It is likely that these are long-term holders rather than short-term speculators, as markets generally remain wary. Interestingly, buying during the decline has become a key outline of the American session. After more than a 3% fall, US stock indices not only bounced back but also managed to show growth at the end of the day. This stimulated bitcoin to strengthen. A short-term surge of bullish sentiment could end quickly if risky assets resume their decline again. If the situation in Ukraine escalates even more, bitcoin may fall below $30,000 as investors leave for defensive assets. According to The New York Times, Russia is legalizing cryptocurrency to circumvent US sanctions. Otherwise, the country will not survive the growing sanctions pressure from Western countries. Bitcoin rose over the past day by 10.7% to $38,500, reducing the decline in 7 days to 5%. Ethereum jumped 12% but is still 10% lower than it was exactly a week ago. Other leading altcoins are moving almost in unison, adding about 10% in most cases. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, increased by 9.6% per day to $1.72 trillion. The bitcoin dominance index rose 0.3 points to 42.6%, due to a smaller strengthening of altcoins. The index of fear and greed of the crypto market has risen from 23 to 27, into the territory of fear.

Dax 40 tested strong longer term moving average support at 14100/000 but ran almost as far as the next target of 13750/710. We have now established a base & I think a further recovery is likely. EuroStoxx 50 MARCH crashed as far as my lower target of 3750/40 with a high for the day exactly here & a 150 tick bounce. FTSE 100 MARCH crashed as far as 7141, just 11 ticks above strong support at 7130/10 with a 100 tick recovery. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Dax is now holding above strong longer term moving average support at 14100/000. We are holding short term 23.6% resistance at 14360/380 & this is the main challenge for bulls today. A break above 14410 therefore should be a buy signal targeting 14500 & 14600/650 & perhaps as far as strong resistance at 14750/850. Sell with stops above 14900. Strong longer term moving average support at 14100/000. A break below 13950 however could retest 13780/750. Less chance this will hold on the next test. EuroStoxx managed a bounce to 3810/00 & my next target of 3880/90. A break above 3910 signals further gains to 3950 & probably as far as strong resistance at 3985/95. Failure to beat first resistance at 3880/90 risks a slide to 3845/35 before a retest of support at 3750/40. FTSE crashed as far as strong support at 7130/10 before a bounce to 23.6% resistance at 7250/60. A break above 7275 signals further gains to strong resistance at 7320/40. Watch for a high for the day. A break higher however targets 7380/90 before a sell opportunity at 7435/55. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

What a week, from crashing lows that started to point towards extensions in current medium-term downtrends to a late-week save that really came out of nowhere and looks to be telling us that price may have hit exhaustion lows? The week started OK for most of the top 10 and 25 as prices tested higher but failed to get real traction happening. Then this week’s crisis hit. First, we saw Russia pledge support to the two breakaway parts of Ukraine that claimed independence from the Ukrainian government. Russia was quick to recognise and send in peacekeeping troops that many saw as a proxy invasion. Crypto fell on these developments, but worse was yet to come. Wednesday buying was cut short as cyber attacks hit Ukraine and Europe, but Thursday lunchtime AEDT, the unthinkable had happened, Russia had launched a ground and air assault on Ukraine. As you would expect, coins were savaged, and at one stage, it looked like Armageddon had hit the crypto world. While we saw multiple coins plunge by over 10% in stages of the day, (ETH -12%, AVAX -15%, SHIB -18%), some bucked the sell-off and actually soared off the uncertainty. We suggest anyone interested by this may want to take a look at PAX. On the day of the invasion, PAXUSD jumped by 6%, hitting 2029. In a week, which showed us that while most cryptos remain in the risk basket, PAX could be a safe-haven coin of the group. Thursday’s drama didn’t end there marketwise either. Late into the NY session, buyers charged back into the market. Price not only pulled back losses, but many coins also finished the day higher. This capped off one of the most volatile sessions we have seen this year. For example, ETH finished the day with a 15% range, and SOL was close to 20% in its daily range. This week we want to focus on another stronger coin. LUNA so far has seen a great week despite the geopolitical crisis that continues in Europe. Price has added over 20%, trading back above 65. Technically there’s a bit to like about LUNA, we can see resistance becoming support with a new higher low and this week, buyers have broken out of the range and beaten the medium to a long-term downtrend. Definitely, one to keep an eye on as we head into a new week and fresh opportunities of increased volatility. The post Your Crypto Focus: 26th February – 4th March appeared first on Eightcap.

Tesla bounces strongly on Thursday as markets decide to ignore Ukraine. TSLA stock gains 4.8% on general market bounce back. Shares are up more than 2% in Friday's premarket. Tesla (TSLA) shares bounced strongly on Thursday after dropping off a cliff due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Tesla is now charging higher in Friday's premarket. TSLA stock bottomed out at $700 after opening just above it on Thursday, before spending the entire session climbing back to $800. The stock closed at $800.77, a surprising 4.8% above Wednesday. It is now up 2% in the premarket near $820. Tesla Stock News: Odd trades The latest news is a family affair. Trades made by CEO Elon Musk and his brother Kimble, who sits on Tesla's board, are being scrutinized by the Securites & Exchange Commission (SEC). The Wall Street Journal reports that Kimble sold $108 million worth of shares just one day before his brother Elon posted his infamous Twitter poll asking if he should sell 10% of his Tesla stake. Once the poll was answered strongly in the affirmative, Elon began selling. This caused an approximate 25% sell-off in the share price over the following month. Daiwa Securities Group, Japan's second-biggest investment bank, plastered an outperform rating on the stock due to what it said makes the company more attractive due to the Ukraine-Russia affair. The Japanese bank gave TSLA a $900 price target, writing that "higher oil prices and potential scenario of fuel shortages, especially in Europe, could accelerate the shift to EVs. While the start of production at the Berlin plant could be delayed, recent media reports of Tesla increasing capacity at its Shanghai facility gives it more flexibility to meet European demand." The bank also pointed to the company raising output at its Shanghai plant to 1 million units per year and increasing production to 500,000 units at its Austin plant. Currently, the Shanghai factory can produce about 450,000 units a year. One reason why increasing Shanghai output is key is that gross profit margins run at about 40% there, whereas the automaker's original factory in Fremont, California, has gross profit margins closer to 20%. Last but not least, Tesla has lost its Director of Engineering, Brian Dow, to Generac Holdings (GNRC), a maker of energy storage systems and batteries. Tesla Stock Forecast: Ukraine invasion provides $700 as support One benefit of the rollercoaster ride that hit markets on Thursday is that shareholders now know where long-term support sits. Ahem, it is $700. There must have been enough automatic buying there to spur the price higher since shares were pushed up steadily to $765 by midday. The $700 mark is, however, right in line with a descending bottom side trend line in place since November 10. The region around $945 is still the target to break back into bullish territory. This $945 mark has served as both support and resistance over the past four months going back to October. Before that, however, TSLA shares must close back above the 200-day moving average, which is now at $832.61. It broke through this moving average on Tuesday and may signal there is more downside ahead. TSLA 1-day chart

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is this week’s jump in Corn futures bets. The speculative net position in the Corn futures rose sharply this week following two weeks of decline. The Corn speculator position, despite falling in the previous two weeks, have now actually gained by a total of +63,604 contracts over the past five weeks. The boost has pushed speculator positions to the highest bullish position of the past three weeks and second highest of the past eight weeks. Corn prices, meanwhile, surged upwards this week and touched the highest level since May of last year. The soft commodities that saw higher speculator bets this week were Corn (37,250 contracts), Sugar (683 contracts), Soybeans (9,732 contracts), Soybean Oil (15,773 contracts), Soybean Meal (2,556 contracts) and Wheat (1,944 contracts). The soft commodities that saw lower speculator bets this week were Coffee (-2,634 contracts), Cocoa (-7,301 contracts), Live Cattle (-1,324 contracts), Cotton (-3,421 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-894 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,058,132 29 339,041 2 -382,891 90 43,850 77 Gold 611,488 49 243,148 65 -269,722 35 26,574 40 Silver 163,745 29 30,302 53 -43,720 56 13,418 21 Copper 204,123 29 25,575 61 -34,754 36 9,179 78 Palladium 7,903 7 -1,429 13 1,118 83 311 63 Platinum 62,274 26 17,540 27 -22,887 76 5,347 37 Natural Gas 1,107,113 2 -130,629 39 95,974 61 34,655 67 Brent 215,908 52 -26,355 73 24,478 31 1,877 35 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 826,824 51 226,464 86 -196,755 20 -29,709 21 Corn 1,563,758 32 451,742 88 -410,962 13 -40,780 20 Coffee 252,688 24 67,791 98 -72,509 3 4,718 21 Sugar 857,376 8 75,246 52 -95,306 50 20,060 33 Wheat 379,308 23 -3,902 44 10,629 51 -6,727 69   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 451,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 37,250 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 414,492 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.3 43.5 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.4 69.8 11.8 – Net Position: 451,742 -410,962 -40,780 – Gross Longs: 536,898 680,211 144,247 – Gross Shorts: 85,156 1,091,173 185,027 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 87.7 13.4 19.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.7 -6.3 -0.1   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 75,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,563 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.3 56.0 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.6 67.1 6.9 – Net Position: 75,246 -95,306 20,060 – Gross Longs: 183,029 480,097 79,212 – Gross Shorts: 107,783 575,403 59,152 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 52.1 50.1 32.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 7.4 10.5   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 67,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,634 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,425 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.7 41.8 4.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.9 70.5 2.5 – Net Position: 67,791 -72,509 4,718 – Gross Longs: 77,625 105,619 10,958 – Gross Shorts: 9,834 178,128 6,240 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 97.8 3.0 21.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.5 -7.0 9.0   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 226,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,732 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 216,732 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.1 42.9 6.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.8 66.7 10.5 – Net Position: 226,464 -196,755 -29,709 – Gross Longs: 274,012 354,837 57,443 – Gross Shorts: 47,548 551,592 87,152 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.3 19.5 20.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.8 -21.6 6.2   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 83,093 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 15,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,320 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.8 44.7 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.6 68.4 5.9 – Net Position: 83,093 -97,272 14,179 – Gross Longs: 114,335 183,547 38,221 – Gross Shorts: 31,242 280,819 24,042 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.7 31.1 66.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.9 -19.1 18.5   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 112,100 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,556 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 109,544 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.5 41.9 11.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.0 73.4 5.4 – Net Position: 112,100 -138,497 26,397 – Gross Longs: 129,919 184,652 49,974 – Gross Shorts: 17,819 323,149 23,577 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.4 3.7 76.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.7 -8.8 3.0   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 82,243 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,567 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.4 36.4 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.7 55.1 13.2 – Net Position: 82,243 -67,284 -14,959 – Gross Longs: 131,540 131,571 32,596 – Gross Shorts: 49,297 198,855 47,555 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.3 52.5 50.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.7 -8.2 -25.5   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 66,438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,332 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.3 32.5 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.8 52.2 12.0 – Net Position: 66,438 -55,639 -10,799 – Gross Longs: 111,021 91,697 23,034 – Gross Shorts: 44,583 147,336 33,833 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.1 25.1 33.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.2 -22.2 21.1   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 90,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,421 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 93,723 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.4 38.3 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.3 81.2 3.4 – Net Position: 90,302 -101,731 11,429 – Gross Longs: 102,764 90,576 19,371 – Gross Shorts: 12,462 192,307 7,942 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.2 18.5 84.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.2 2.8 -7.6   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 41,915 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,216 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 42.7 5.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.4 61.4 3.1 – Net Position: 41,915 -48,066 6,151 – Gross Longs: 83,987 109,435 14,151 – Gross Shorts: 42,072 157,501 8,000 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 61.6 35.9 78.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.6 -26.5 30.1   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,902 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,944 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,846 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.8 40.8 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.8 38.0 10.7 – Net Position: -3,902 10,629 -6,727 – Gross Longs: 97,675 154,648 33,795 – Gross Shorts: 101,577 144,019 40,522 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.7 51.2 69.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.1 -1.4 18.7   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT energy data is the continued decline in the WTI Crude Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the WTI Crude Oil futures has decreased for five consecutive weeks and in thirteen out of the past fifteen weeks. The spec crude position has dropped by a total of -82,271 contracts over the past fifteen weeks and speculators have now pushed their current net positioning to the lowest level of the past seven weeks. These declines in speculator sentiment has brought the current speculator strength score level into a bearish-extreme standing of just 2.4 percent where the strength score measures the current speculator standing compared to past three years where above 80 is bullish-extreme and below 20 is bearish-extreme. Despite the speculator weakness, crude oil prices have shot up on the Russian invasion of Ukraine with WTI crude touching slightly above $100 per barrel late this week. Joining WTI Crude Oil (-9,052 contracts) with falling speculator bets this week were Brent Crude Oil (-30 contracts) and Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts) while Natural Gas (795 contracts), Gasoline (991 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (4,874 contracts) saw higher speculator positions on the week. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,058,132 29 339,041 2 -382,891 90 43,850 77 Gold 611,488 49 243,148 65 -269,722 35 26,574 40 Silver 163,745 29 30,302 53 -43,720 56 13,418 21 Copper 204,123 29 25,575 61 -34,754 36 9,179 78 Palladium 7,903 7 -1,429 13 1,118 83 311 63 Platinum 62,274 26 17,540 27 -22,887 76 5,347 37 Natural Gas 1,107,113 2 -130,629 39 95,974 61 34,655 67 Brent 215,908 52 -26,355 73 24,478 31 1,877 35 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 826,824 51 226,464 86 -196,755 20 -29,709 21 Corn 1,563,758 32 451,742 88 -410,962 13 -40,780 20 Coffee 252,688 24 67,791 98 -72,509 3 4,718 21 Sugar 857,376 8 75,246 52 -95,306 50 20,060 33 Wheat 379,308 23 -3,902 44 10,629 51 -6,727 69   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 339,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 348,093 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.5 36.1 4.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.0 54.7 2.8 – Net Position: 339,041 -382,891 43,850 – Gross Longs: 442,102 743,113 100,987 – Gross Shorts: 103,061 1,126,004 57,137 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.4 89.9 76.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.4 5.6 10.5   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -26,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,325 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.3 46.9 4.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.5 35.6 3.4 – Net Position: -26,355 24,478 1,877 – Gross Longs: 37,283 101,361 9,173 – Gross Shorts: 63,638 76,883 7,296 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.5 30.6 34.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.6 19.9 -23.2   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -130,629 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 795 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -131,424 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.9 43.8 5.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.6 35.1 2.3 – Net Position: -130,629 95,974 34,655 – Gross Longs: 241,913 484,856 60,026 – Gross Shorts: 372,542 388,882 25,371 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.4 61.1 66.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.4 0.3 18.3   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 63,587 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 991 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,596 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.3 50.1 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.0 69.3 3.3 – Net Position: 63,587 -74,709 11,122 – Gross Longs: 106,356 194,978 23,947 – Gross Shorts: 42,769 269,687 12,825 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.8 62.3 78.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -9.2 30.3   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9 – Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979 – Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210 – Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,041 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 65.4 29.1 1.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 94.6 1.5 0.2 – Net Position: -12,167 11,468 699 – Gross Longs: 27,191 12,091 770 – Gross Shorts: 39,358 623 71 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 19.4 to 1 10.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.9 37.4 44.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 36.1 -36.8 5.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

As we head into a new month, Boris Schlossberg of BKForex takes over the reins for our Trade Zone Trading Week Ahead for the month of March. Amidst an increasingly volatile background driven by geopolitical tensions, Boris gives his take on the assets that matter this week, looking at current short-term positions for Gold and Oil, as well as potential setups for indices and forex from both a technical and fundamental perspective. Watch the video below to get all the insight ahead of market open today. Boris Schlossberg is Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management, Co-Founder of BKForex.com, and Managing Editor of 60secondinvestor.com. Widely known as a leading foreign exchange expert, Boris has more than three decades of financial market experience. In 2007, while still at FXCM, Boris started BKForex with Ms. Kathy Lien. A year later, Boris joined Global Futures & Forex Ltd as director of currency research where he provided research and analysis to clients and managed a global foreign exchange analysis team with Kathy Lien. Since 2012 Boris has focused exclusively on running BKForex.com where he generates trade ideas and designs algorithms for the FX market in partnership with Ms. Lien. He is the author of “Technical Analysis of the Currency Market” and “Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Beat Wall Street at its Own Game”, both of which are published by Wiley. In 2020 Mr. Schlossberg started www.60secondinvestor.com a free website that distils the best of institutional investment research for retail investors. Important Data Releases & Events this Week Tuesday CNY Manufacturing PMI AUD RBA Interest Rate Decison Wednesday EUR German Inflation Rate, Unemployment Rate EUR Eurozone CPI CAD GDP USD Markit Manufacturing PMI AUD GDP Thursday CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Friday USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Saturday USD Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate The post Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 28th February – 4th March appeared first on Eightcap.

As we head into a new month, Boris Schlossberg of BKForex takes over the reins for our Trade Zone Trading Week Ahead for the month of March. Amidst an increasingly volatile background driven by geopolitical tensions, Boris gives his take on the assets that matter this week, looking at current short-term positions for Gold and Oil, as well as potential setups for indices and forex from both a technical and fundamental perspective. Watch the video below to get all the insight ahead of market open today. Boris Schlossberg is Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management, Co-Founder of BKForex.com, and Managing Editor of 60secondinvestor.com. Widely known as a leading foreign exchange expert, Boris has more than three decades of financial market experience. In 2007, while still at FXCM, Boris started BKForex with Ms. Kathy Lien. A year later, Boris joined Global Futures & Forex Ltd as director of currency research where he provided research and analysis to clients and managed a global foreign exchange analysis team with Kathy Lien. Since 2012 Boris has focused exclusively on running BKForex.com where he generates trade ideas and designs algorithms for the FX market in partnership with Ms. Lien. He is the author of “Technical Analysis of the Currency Market” and “Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Beat Wall Street at its Own Game”, both of which are published by Wiley. In 2020 Mr. Schlossberg started www.60secondinvestor.com a free website that distils the best of institutional investment research for retail investors. Important Data Releases & Events this Week Tuesday CNY Manufacturing PMI AUD RBA Interest Rate Decison Wednesday EUR German Inflation Rate, Unemployment Rate EUR Eurozone CPI CAD GDP USD Markit Manufacturing PMI AUD GDP Thursday CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Friday USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Saturday USD Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate The post Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 28th February – 4th March appeared first on Eightcap.

GBPUSD looks to steady The sterling recoups some losses as sentiment stabilizes after the initial fear-driven sell-off. A clean cut through the daily support at 1.3360 has triggered a wave of liquidation. Sentiment remains downbeat despite the recent rebound. A deeply oversold RSI attracted some bargain hunters. However, the pound is vulnerable to another sell-off as buyers could be wary of catching a falling knife. 1.3500 from the previous consolidation range is the closest resistance. Further down, 1.3200 (near last December’s lows) might be the next target. USDNOK breaks rising trendline The US dollar consolidates as the Ukraine conflict makes a too aggressive move by the Fed unlikely. A short-lived surge above the supply area (9.0300) indicates strong selling pressure around 9.0900. Then a fall below the rising trendline calls the recent rebound into question. 8.7900 is the next support and buyers will need to lift offers around 9.0900 before they could hope for a meaningful comeback. Further down, this month’s low at 8.6800 is a key floor to keep the greenback afloat. GER 40 attempts to rebound The Dax 40 rebounds as traders bet that sanctions against Russia may not reach their full extent. The index saw solid bids near its 12-month lows (13800). The RSI’s repeated oversold indication has led short-term sellers to take profit in this key demand zone. 14850 from the tip of a previous bounce is the immediate resistance where the bears could be awaiting to sell into strength. A bullish breakout could soothe a battered mood. Otherwise, another round of sell-off may push the index below 13500.

  As the COVID-19 pandemic has shown, it is worth being better prepared for a possible crisis. Does that mean it pays to have some gold up your sleeve? I have to confess something. I always laughed at preppers (aka survivalists) – people who spend their entire lives stockpiling beans and ammo in preparation for the highly unlikely doomsday scenarios. C’mon, who would take these freaks seriously? Well, as the pandemic and supply crisis showed us, we all should. When most people scrambled for masks and hand sanitizers, preppers laughed. When most people fought epic battles for toilet paper and something to eat to survive the Great Lockdown, preppers laughed. When most people were confronted with surging inflation and supply shortages of different products, preppers laughed. When most people panicked upon hearing about energy blackouts, preppers laughed. It seems that mocked preppers got the last laugh, after all. Hence, the COVID-19 epidemic made it clear that the world is not a paradise flowing with milk and honey and that bad things do really happen, so we should be more prepared for possible calamities, even if they look like remote possibilities. For example, experts now point out the threat of cyberattacks, and just last month, Kazakhstan’s government turned off the internet nationwide, depriving its citizens of access to their bank accounts. The problem is, of course, that crises always seem highly unlikely until they occur. Meanwhile, historical cases are too distant and abstract for us, and we tend to think that “this time is different”, or that “we’ll make it through somehow.” Perhaps you will, but it’s much easier when you are prepared. When other people panic, you don’t, because you have made your preparation and have a clear plan of action. You see, the issue is not if the crisis hits, but when. It’s just a matter of time, even the government suggests storing at least a several-day supply of non-perishable food. However, the problem is that when things are going well, people don’t think about preparing. Why should we worry and spoil the fun? Let’s drink like tomorrow never comes! Maybe the problem will somehow disappear by itself, and if it doesn’t, we’ll deal with it later. I got it, but how does it all relate to gold? Well, quite simply. Owning gold is a part of preparing for the worst. This is because gold is the store of value that appreciates when confidence in fiat money declines. It’s also a safe-haven asset, which shines during financial crises when asset prices generally decline. The best example may be the Great Recession or 2020 economic crisis when gold performed much better than the S&P 500 Index, as the chart below shows. You can also think of gold as a portfolio insurance policy or a hedge against tail risks. A house fire is not very likely, but it’s generally smart to have insurance, you know, just in case. Similarly, the collapse of the financial markets and the great plunge of asset prices are not of great probability (although the Great Depression, late 2008, and early 2020 show that they are clearly possible), but it’s nice to have a portfolio diversifier that is not afraid of black swans. In a sense, the whole issue boils down to individual responsibility. Do you take responsibility for your life and for being prepared for different scenarios, or do you count on other people, the government, or simply luck, magically thinking that everything always goes well? To be clear, being prepared doesn’t equal being pessimistic – it’s rather about being realistic and hoping for the best, but planning for the worst. However, there are two important caveats to consider before exchanging all of your paper currency for gold coins. First, you shouldn’t conflate holding gold as insurance with gold as an investment asset. When you want protection, you’re not interested in price trends. There might be a bear market, but gold would still fulfill its hedging role. This is also why you shouldn’t own more than about 5-10% of your whole portfolio in precious metals (as insurance, you can invest more in gold as an investment or as a part of your trading strategy). Second, don’t treat gold as a panacea for all possible disasters. It all depends on what you are preparing for. If you expect power outages, buy batteries, power banks, and think about alternate sources of energy. Precious metals won’t power your home. If you fear a zombie apocalypse (who doesn’t?), flamethrowers and rifles seem to be better weapons than gold bars (although large ones can serve quite well). If you can’t wait for a nuclear explosion (who can?), you will need a proper shelter with uncontaminated food rather than shiny metal (pun intended). It’s possible that in such a post-apocalyptic world, people would initially return to a commodity-based standard rather than the gold standard. It all depends on the particular conditions and how deeply the civilization would devolve. Hence, don’t be scared by dodgy people and false advertising into buying gold because of imminent hyperinflation, the total collapse of the financial system, nuclear greetings from Kim Jong-Un, or another calamity. The role of gold is not to rescue you from all kinds of troubles, but to be insurance that pays off during economic crises. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

Looking at gold we can see price starting to form a range after a wild few days of trade. Since last Thursday when Russia invaded Ukraine we have seen some amazing moves on gold as traders looked to the metal as a hedge. Last Thursday’s surge up to 1974.48 capped off a well-developed rally that started back in January. As the crisis developed and then unfolded buyers piled into gold. But Thursday was a mixed bag as risk recovered and this shock sent gold back down to 1903, setting off a rather solid bull trap. Over the weekend tensions continued to develop on the Russian side and the word nuclear was mentioned. This set a strong gap to start the week as spot gold starting trading at 1916 today. Trade from the open hasn’t been confident and we’re still watching price slowly decline. This leads us to today’s chart. After today’s gap, we can see two clear areas of support and resistance after the dust of last week and this morning’s open. Tensions between Russia and the west and their invasion of Ukraine are going to continue as the key factor. Break and close above resistance we will look for further higher prices. Break below support, we could see a new move back to the second slower trendline. GOLD 4H The post CFD Update: Gold starting to lock up after a wild three days of trade appeared first on Eightcap.

Dax 40 paused for quite a while at 23.6% resistance at 14360/380 with a break above 14410 eventually for a buy signal targeting 14500 & 14600/650. A high for the day here. EuroStoxx 50 MARCH we wrote: managed a bounce to 3810/00 & my next target of 3880/90. A break above 3910 signals further gains to 3950 & probably as far as strong resistance at 3985/95. A high for the day exactly here! FTSE 100 MARCH through the roof & unexpectedly reaching as far as 7530. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Dax beat resistance at 14360/380 for a buy signal targeting 14500 & 14600/650 & perhaps as far as strong resistance at 14750/850 on Monday. Sell with stops above 14900. A break higher however is a buy signal targeting 15000/15050, perhaps as far as 15300/350. Shorts at strong resistance at 14750/850 target 14650 & 14500. First support at 14380/360. Longs need stops below 14300. A break lower targets 14150 before strong longer term moving average support at 14100/000. A break below 13950 however could retest 13780/750. Less chance this will hold on the next test. EuroStoxx beat 3880/90 for buy signal hitting my targets of 3950 & strong resistance at 3985/95 with a high for the day exactly here. A break above 4010 is the next buy signal targeting 4060/70, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 4135/45. Failure to beat strong resistance at 3985/95 targets 3940 then first support at 3905/3890. A break below 3875 however risks a slide to 3845/35 before a retest of support at 3750/40. FTSE in a stunning performance as we ran up over 300 points. Could continue higher after such a strong performance targeting 7570/80 before a test of resistance at February's high of 7620/30. A break higher is a strong buy signal initially targeting 7750/70. Downside is likely to be limited with first support at 7445/30 then support again at 7385/75. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

Emini S&P MARCH we wrote: bounced to my first target of 4260/70. In fact a high for the day exactly here. However there is a good chance that is is only a pause & eventually we continue higher towards 4300/10, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 4360/80. Nice call as we paused for quite a long time at 4260/70 but eventually broke higher as predicted as far as strong resistance at 4360/80 with a high for the day exactly here. Nasdaq MARCH we wrote: We have held the 23.6% Fibonacci level of 13850/950 but I think this is just a pause . Eventually (hopefully today) a break above 14000 signals further gains to minor resistance at 14070/080 then 14350/360. Higher as predicted & on the way to 14350/360 I think. Emini Dow Jones MARCH we wrote: longs at strong support at 32400/300 worked perfectly with longs winning huge sums on the bounce to resistance at 32900/33000....but I think this is just a pause . Eventually (hopefully today) a break above 33400 signals further gains to 33600 before strong resistance at 33900/34000. Did you run the long from 32400/300 all the way up to 33900/34000 for a huge 1500 tick gain? Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P higher as predicted & straight to my target & strong resistance at 4360/80 with a high for the day here for a perfect call on Friday! A break higher certainly possible on Monday to target 4420/30, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 4450/60. Shorts need stops above 4470. A break higher targets 450/4510, perhaps as far as resistance at 4530/40. Holding strong resistance at 4360/80 risks a slide to 4325/20 before strong support at 4275/65. Longs need stops below 4250. A break lower however targets 4220/10, perhaps as far as important support at 4195/4185. Nasdaq can target minor resistance at 14350/360 before very strong resistance at 14400/450. A high for the day is expected - shorts need stops above 14500. A break higher however is a buy signal targeting 14800/850. Strong support at 13950/850 but longs need stops below 13750. A break lower targets 13600/550 before a retest of important longer term support at 13000/12900. Longs need stops below 12800. A break lower however could send prices down another 1000 points eventually. Emini Dow Jones longs at strong support at 32400/300 worked perfectly for up to 1500 ticks profit on the run to strong resistance at 33900/34000. Shorts need stops above 34150. A break higher targets 34500, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 3500/35100. Holding strong resistance at 33900/34000 targets 33300/33200. Longs need stops below 33000. Again strong support at 32400/30. A break below 32000 is then a very important longer term sell signal & could see 750 tick losses almost immediately. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

While stocks saw some signs of recovery towards the end of last week with Asian, European and US markets recovering some of their losses following the invasion of Ukraine from Russia, stock prices could have a very difficult week ahead as tensions escalate and more sanctions continue to be announced. Over the weekend, the European union announced a variety of sanctions on Russia including limiting it’s access to EU airspace and prohibiting certain banks from utilizing the SWIFT banking system, a move which could have catastrophic effects on the russian economy and was by some considered to be on the most potentially effective deterrents. Investors are taking that into consideration and while the war for Ukraine rages on, this week is set to be one of the most volatile across markets with the prices of stocks and commodities being extremely susceptible to any kind of sanction and geopolitical instability. If the situation continues to escalate, risky assets like stocks and crypto currencies could be seeing another week of losses while investors continue to rush to safe havens like gold and the USD which benefited greatly last week from the shocking turn of events. Oil prices remain under pressure after Brent retreats from $100 While oil prices managed to decline as recent news emerged of potential talks between Russia and Ukraine to deescalate the situation after markets panicked following the invasion, the situation remains extremely uncertain. Brent is trading around the $95 area after pulling back from the multi-year high reached as supply concerns reached critical levels following the invasion of Ukraine which sparked a series of sanctions from western countries. Due to the fact that the Russian economy is so heavily reliant on its energy exports, much of which goes to Europe, those fears could persist throughout the week as a lack of resolution could only serve to further destabilize the situation. While there are potential alternatives available to European economies, many of them are costly and impractical for the time being and as it appears that at this point almost nothing is off the table, it could lead oil prices to retest those highs from 2014 and potentially even break past them.  

Bitcoin price is behaving very well this stormy Monday morning as global markets are under pressure from sanctions against Russia. BTC sees elevated interest as people in Russia dive into Bitcoin as an alternative method of payment. Expect this interest to add to more popularity for Bitcoin as long as the current sanctions are imposed on Russia and its ruble. Bitcoin (BTC) is holding it together all-in-all quite well as price action dipped lower over the weekend but is back up for the day as Bitcoin sees an uptick in demand at the start of the week. That demand comes from Russian people using Bitcoin as an alternative method of payment as the local currency has devalued considerably, and several sanctions are making it impossible to use FX alternatives. With this renewed interest, expect to see BTC price action rise towards $39,780, holding a 10% profit potential. Bitcoin regains the needed attention it deserves Over the weekend, price action got rejected to the downside and saw a 7% devaluation. Yet with the introduction of several sanctions onRussia, significant demand is being seen for Bitcoin as Russians seek alternative payment methods as their own currency has devalued sharply by 20% on Monday morning, and foreign currencies are forbidden as a form of payment. This is the perfect background for Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies to get renewed positive attention. Several Russians will be opening a crypto wallet and buying into Bitcoin price action, which could propel price action towards $39,780 in the first phase.once Bitcoin becomes the standard form of payment in Russia, and as the Relative Strength Index still has plenty of room to go, expect to see a further move to the upside, hitting $41,756 in the near term. BTC/USD daily chart Depending on the current peace talks underway this afternoon between Russia and Ukraine, expect to see a possible dip back towards $38,073 or even $36,709 as the supportive baseline in these past few days. Should the situation deteriorate again and see renewed attacks – and even the use of Russian nuclear weapons – expect to see a sharp nosedive move towards $32,650, nearing the distribution zone from a few months ago. With that move, the Relative Strength Index will have entered the oversold area, however, suggesting an increased likelihood of an eventual recovery.

NASDAQ 100 is set to open sharply lower on Monday. Russia placing nuclear forces on high alert spooked markets. European gas prices continue to surge as stagflation beckons. Global financial markets remain on edge this morning as the Russia-Ukraine conflict looks to be in danger of spilling into a global threat. Over the weekend Russia placed its nuclear deterrent forces on high alert, while Germany pledged increased defense spending. Now further developments include Russia talking of placing nuclear missiles in Belarus and an apparent escalation of the rhetoric between global superpowers. Western governments have gone for tougher sanctions than many observers anticipated with the Russian Central Bank reserves being targetted as well as the global banking payment system SWIFT being closed to Russian banks. Russian ally Belarus held a referendum this morning that ditched its non-nuclear stance, paving the way for Russian nuclear missiles to be deployed there. NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Stock News All this has naturally seen risk assets collapse. European equity markets fell sharply this morning. At one stage the German Dax was down nearly 3% but has staged a slight recovery to lose 2.4% currently. However the European benchmark, the Eurostoxx 50, is down over 3.5% at the time of writing. Yields continue to fall as money flows into safe-haven assets. Gold and the dollar have naturally profited. The odds on rate hikes from the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve have diminished as the threat of recession grows. Europe has the most to lose due to its dependence on Russian gas supplies. European natural gas futures (TTF) rose over 50% on Friday and have followed that up with a 12% gain on Monday. There is likely more to come here. NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Stock Forecast We do have a bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI has not made matching new lows despite the NASDAQ 100 doing so. Usually, this is significant, but the RSI does remain in a strong downtrend in line with the NASDAQ. Thursday and Friday's rally was impressive, but even that failed to break the 9 and 21-day moving averages. Demonstrating this downtrend is powerful. The obvious target is a break of 4,300 and a test of the significant lows from March 2021 at $299.51. Nasdaq (QQQ) chart, daily For short-term traders, opening below $348 indicates we are on a bearish track and preparing for further declines. Last support at $338 could see a sharp decline to $328 based on the volume gap. Nasdaq (QQQ) chart, 15-minute

S&P 500 didn‘t correct much intraday, and the risk-on turn has continued unabated with value pulling ahead sharply – unlike the day before when the revesal came about because of tech. The dust is settling in the market‘s mind, VIX has indeed moved and the dollar weakened noticeably. That was the subject of Friday‘s analysis – the disappearing safe haven premium over many assets such as gold, crude oil and Treasuries (Treasuries though kept their cool the most, not losing the focus on Fed‘s tightening). Risk-on appetite returned to stocks with a vengeance, and market breadth has significantly improved – within the context of the ongoing correction, must be said. While we made local lows on Thursday after all, the upside momentum is likely to slow down next – this week would bring a consolidation within a very headline sensitive environment. It‘s looking good for the bulls at the moment – till the dynamic of events beyond markets changes. Inflation isn‘t wavering, and I‘m not looking for its meaningful deceleration given the events since Thursday, no. Friday is likely to mark a buying opportunity beyond oil and copper – these longs have very good prospects. Another part of the S&P 500 upswing explanation were the still fine fresh orders data – while the real economy has noticeably decelerated (and Q1 GDP growth would be underwhelming), solid figures would return in the latter quarters of 2022. That‘s also behind the gold downswing on Friday, which hadn‘t been confirmed by the miners – the very bright future ahead for precious metals is undisputable. And the same goes for crude oil as oil stocks foretell – the fresh long crude trade together with long S&P 500 one, are both solidly in the black already.. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Sharp S&P 500 upswing on solid volume – the gains can continue but their pace would slow down. Negative sentiment is departing stocks as the existing bad news has been priced in. The pendulum is swinging the other way now. Credit Markets HYG is confirming the stock market upswing, but bonds are remaining more cautious overall – it‘s that the focus would shift over the coming 2 weeks again to the Fed. The yield spread keeps compressing and the 2-year bond didn‘t stop pressuring the Fed. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals have corrected a little but the upswing goes on – GDX performance is a good omen. The decline in prices wasn‘t sold heavily into anyway – we‘re still moving higher next as the rate raising cycle start is soon here. Crude Oil Crude oil bears are totally unconvincing, proving that the prior price upswing was about way more than geopolitical uncertainty – the chart remains strongly bullish, and we have higher to run still. Copper Copper upswing is indeed taking time to develop, but commodities strength remains in spite of the daily setback, which just illustrates the risk-on euphoria in stocks. The commodities upleg hasn‘t run its course, and the red metal would join in. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are refusing to extend Sunday‘s decline – while the worst appears to be over, the short-term direction can turn out in both directions. I‘m though slightlly favoring the bulls. Summary S&P 500 turnaround continues, and price gains are frontrunning the events on the ground. The upswing is vulnerable – to a consolidation at most as a full reversal would require fresh setbacks, including in Asia. Risk-on trades have the momentum, and credit markets agree. It certainly looks like a good time to take advantage of the precious metals and commodities discounts as momentary optimism in the markets that has nothing to do with the progress on inflation. Further, we‘re still in the real economy slowdown phase, and the Fed hasn‘t even started hiking yet. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Bitcoin, buy the news   With news, volatility is typically increasing, and a larger volume of transactions is at play. For amateurs, data evaluation in a turmoiled market environment generally results in procrastination of execution, meaning no trading or chasing trades. Professionals find necessary liquidity to exit a trade or use volatility to fade moves on less risk for entries. Last week’s invasion of Ukraine was no different. Only those prepared with a plan were able to position themselves in bitcoin. Bitcoin, daily chart, the giveaway: Crypto markets, daily charts as of February 28th, 2022. A giveaway was a widespread larger supply zone throughout the crypto sector (green horizontal lines on the daily charts above), and preset buy entries in the crypto space were getting triggered. Inter-market relationships stack the odds of placing a successful trade.   Bitcoin, weekly chart, entry target zone within reach: Bitcoin, weekly chart as of February 28th, 2022. With our entry target range nearly reached (see our previous chart book release), we were ready to act, knowing a possible larger time frame tuning point was a possibility. You might argue that the price has not penetrated the entry zone. Still, at a closer look, you will identify that due to exuberant volume on the surprise news day, the supply zone values had changed to provide significant support right at the rim of our initially planned zone. Charts need to be consistently updated to stay accurate! Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, weekly chart, another edge stacked: Bitcoin versus Gold in USD, weekly chart as of March 1st, 2022. Precisely on the day in question, we also got a hedge rotational “buy signal” for bitcoin versus gold on the weekly chart. Consequently, this signal provided another inter-market relationship edge that supported our decision-making for aggressive entry. What we can see on the chart above that compares bitcoin with gold is that since institutional money has become a massive part of bitcoin holdings, these more significant funds rotate their money in and out between gold and bitcoin. Following the yellow line, one can see prices being high to buy bitcoin with gold at double top and acquiring bitcoin at a double bottom is a way to take advantage of cheaper bitcoin prices in relationship to gold. For us, a good reason to assume that gold holders might switch to bitcoin for the next foreseeable timeframe, to hedge their wealth preservation portfolios. Bitcoin, daily chart, profits booked and room to go: Bitcoin, weekly chart as of March 1st, 2022. The weekly chart above shows four more reloads within the last five days. All trades have been risk mitigated with our quad exit strategy. Consequently, the remaining position was market money at no risk to us. We posted daily calls to prepare interested parties for possible reentries. Prices have already advanced by nearly 30% from the lows. This preparedness and merely following rules allow ending up being positioned and not dependent on whether a turning point matures. Even in a negative outcome, profits have been made. With a bit of luck, these remainder positions can go a long way and provide substantial additional profits. In addition, one is positioned early before a trend is even established. Bitcoin, buy the news: We must confront opinion-forming debates led by ego (the need to be right). We use reconditioning behavior to achieve best results. The goal in mind is to “erase” intuitive responses and an execution time delay leading to sub-par entry timing. Consequently, consistent extracting of profits from the market is possible. At Midas Touch, we have made it our business to share our entry and exit timing and their underlying principles in our free Telegram channel to empower our clients and followers to become successful self-directed investors.   Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 1st, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, S&P 500, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

S&P 500 erased opening downside, not unexpectedly. Markets say we‘ve turned the corner, and while the medium-term correction isn‘t over, we‘re going higher for now. The tired performance in credit markets suggests that the pace of the upswing would indeed likely slow, but the dips are being bought – even the 4,300 overnight level held unchallenged.VIX is slowly calming down, and it wouldn‘t be a one-way ride. I hate to say it, but we‘re trading closer to the more complacent end of the volatility spectrum – that‘s though in line with my assumption of toned down price appreciation expectations that I discussed on Sunday and yesterday:(…) While we made local lows on Thursday after all, the upside momentum is likely to slow down next – this week would bring a consolidation within a very headline sensitive environment. It‘s looking good for the bulls at the moment – till the dynamic of events beyond markets changes.Inflation isn‘t wavering, and I‘m not looking for its meaningful deceleration given the events since Thursday, no. Friday is likely to mark a buying opportunity beyond oil and copper – these longs have very good prospects. Another part of the S&P 500 upswing explanation were the still fine fresh orders data – while the real economy has noticeably decelerated (and Q1 GDP growth would be underwhelming), solid figures would return in the latter quarters of 2022. That‘s also behind the gold downswing on Friday, which hadn‘t been confirmed by the miners – the very bright future ahead for precious metals is undisputable. And the same goes for crude oil as oil stocks foretell – the fresh long crude trade together with long S&P 500 one, are both solidly in the black already.Precious metals have found a floor, and aren‘t selling off either. In fact, they are looking at a great week ahead, and the same goes for crude oil followed to a lesser degree by copper. Weekend developments on the financial front triggered a rush into cryptos, and the bullish prospects I presented yesterday, are coming to fruition.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookDaily S&P 500 consolidation as the bulls did shake off the opening setback rather easily – and the same goes for the late session trip approaching 4,310s. Expecting more volatility of the current flavor, and higher prices then.Credit MarketsHYG managed to close above Friday‘s values, and the overall bond market strength bodes well for risk appetite ahead. Let‘s consolidate first, and march higher later.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are consolidating the high ground gained, miners aren‘t yielding, and silver weakness yesterday actually bodes well for the very short term. Launching pad before the next upleg.Crude OilCrude oil bears have a hard time from keeping black gold below $100. The table is clearly set for further gains – the chart can be hardly more bullish.CopperCopper is a laggard, but will still participate in the upswing. Its current underperformance as highlighten by yesterday‘s downswing, is a bit too odd, i.e. bound to be reversed.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto bulls were indeed the stronger party, and similarly to gold, it‘s hard to imagine a deep dive coming to frution. I‘m looking for the safety trade to be be ebbing and flowing, now with some crypto participation sprinkled on top.SummaryS&P 500 turnaround goes on, and we‘re undergoing a consolidation that‘s as calm as can be given the recent volatility. Credit markets and the dollar though continue favoring the paper asset bulls now, but their gains would pale in comparison with select commodities such as oil and gold‘s newfound floor. Even agrifoods look to be sold down a bit too hard, and I‘m not looking for them to be languishing next as much as they have been over the last two trading days. Cryptos upswing highlights the present global uncertainties faced – as I have written on Thursday that the world has changed, the same applies for weekend banking events being reflected in the markets yesterday.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  Russia underestimated Ukraine’s fierce defense. Instead of quick conquest, the war is still going on. The same applies to pulling the rope between gold bulls and bears. It was supposed to be a blitzkrieg. The plan was simple: within 72 hours Russian troops were to take control of Kyiv, stage a coup, overthrow the democratically elected Ukrainian authorities, and install a pro-Russian puppet government. Well, the blitzkrieg clearly failed. The war has been going on for five days already, and Kyiv (and other major cities) remains in Ukrainian hands, while the Russians suffer great losses. Indeed, the Ukrainians are fighting valiantly. The Kremlin apparently did not expect such high morale among the troops and civilians, as well as such excellent organization and preparation. Meanwhile, the morale among Russian soldiers is reported to be pathetically low, as they have no motivation to fight with culturally close Ukrainians (many of whom speak perfect Russian). The invaders are also poorly equipped, and the whole operation was logistically unprepared (as the assumption was a quick capitulation by Ukrainian forces and a speedy collapse of the government in Kyiv). Well, pride comes before a fall. What’s more, the West is united as never before (Germany did a historic U-turn in its foreign and energy policies) and has already imposed relatively heavy economic sanctions on Russia (including cutting off some of the country’s banks from SWIFT), and donated weapons to Ukraine. However – and unfortunately – the war is far from being ended. Military analysts expect a second wave of Russian troops that can break the resistance of the Ukrainians, who have fewer forces and cannot relieve the soldiers just like the other side. Indeed, satellite pictures show a large convoy of Russian forces near Kyiv. Russia is also gathering troops in Belarus and – sadly – started shelling residential quarters in Ukrainian cities. According to US intelligence, Belarusian soldiers could join Russian forces. The coming days will be crucial for the fate of the conflict.   Implications for Gold What does the war between Russia and Ukraine imply for the gold market? Well, initially, the conflict was supportive of gold prices. As the chart below shows, the price of gold (London Fix) soared to $1,936 on Thursday. However, the rally was very short-lived, as the very next day, gold prices fell to $1,885. Thus, gold’s performance looked like “buy the rumor, sell the news.” However, yesterday, the price of the yellow metal returned above $1,900, so some geopolitical risk premium may still be present in the gold market. Anyway, it seems that I was right in urging investors to focus on fundamentals and to not make long-term investments merely based on geopolitical risks, the impact of which is often only temporary. Having said that, gold may continue its bullish trend, at least for a while. After all, the war not only increases risk aversion, but it also improves gold’s fundamental outlook. First of all, the Fed is now less likely to raise the federal funds rate in March. It will probably still tighten its monetary policy, but in a less aggressive way. For example, the market odds of a 50-basis point hike decreased from 41.4% one week ago to 12.4% now. What’s more, we are observing increasing energy prices, which could increase inflation further. The combination of higher inflation and a less hawkish Fed should be fundamentally positive for gold prices, as it implies low real interest rates. On the other hand, gold may find itself under downward pressure from selling reserves to raise liquidity. I'm referring to the fact that the West has cut Russia off from the SWIFT system in part. In such a situation, Russia would have to sell part of its massive gold reserves, which could exert downward pressure on prices. Hence, the upcoming days may be quite volatile for the gold market. At the end of my article, I would like to point out that although the war in Ukraine entails implications for the precious metals market, it is mostly a humanitarian tragedy. My thoughts and prayers are with all the casualties of the conflict and their families. I hope that Ukraine will withstand the invasion and peace will return soon! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Economic Calendar by FXMAG.COM - 02/03/2022 Europeans may stay awake as shortly after midnight Australian GDP (QoQ) (Q4) is going to be announced. The previous indicator hit -1.9% Heading to Europe – at 8:55 a.m. we get to know German Unemployment Change (February) which previously reached -48K. About one hour later Europeans will be provided with the CPI indicator wondering whether it will go back from the level of 5.1% According to Investing.com, we can expect that British Annual Budget Release will be known tomorrow and what we’re sure of, there are many events to watch in the United States. Even if we don’t care about ADP Nonfarm Employment Change which will be released at 1:15 p.m., many will follow the testimony of Fed’s Jerome Powell at 3 p.m. followed by Crude Oil Inventories (prev. 4.515M) to be released half an hour later. In Canada, at 3 p.m. Bank of Canada will release its Interest Rate Decision. The previous Interest Rate was 0.25% Wednesday (2nd March) is a day free for Brazilians, so don’t expect any news coming from this country in LATAM. Time: GMT Data: Investing.com

  The S&P 500 went sideways yesterday, as investors hesitated following the recent rally. Will the short-term uptrend resume? The broad stock market index lost 0.24% on Monday, after gaining 2.2% on Friday and 1.5% on Thursday. The sentiment improved following the Thursday’s rebound, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty following the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict news. On Thursday, the broad stock market reached the low of 4,114.65 and it was 704 points or 14.6% below the January 4 record high of 4,818.62. And yesterday it went closer to the 4,400 level. For now, it looks like an upward correction. However, it may also be a more meaningful reversal following a deep 15% correction from the early January record high. The market sharply reversed its short-term downtrend, but will it continue the advance? This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.2% lower and we may see some more volatility. The nearest important resistance level remains at 4,400 and the next resistance level is at 4,450-4,500. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,300-4,350, among others. The S&P 500 index broke slightly above the downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Remains Above the 4,300 Level Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. On Thursday it sold off after breaking below the 4,200 level. Since Friday it is trading along the 4,300 mark. We are still expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index fluctuated following the recent rally yesterday. This morning it is expected to open 0.2% lower and we may see some further volatility. Obviously, the markets will continue to react to the Russia-Ukraine conflict news. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index bounced from the new low on Thursday after falling almost 15% from the early January record high. We are maintaining our speculative long position. We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

In the middle of Tuesday, the first cryptocurrency was approaching $45K, but then fell slightly during the American session along with stock indices. BTC showed resilience despite the decline in other risky assets and the growth of the dollar. World markets were declining following the banking sector, which felt the severity of Russia's partial disconnection from Swift (by 80%). However, this situation does little harm to the demand for cryptocurrencies. On the Binance exchange, the volume of trading in ruble pairs with BTC and USDT has increased significantly. Crypto funds recorded $36 million in net asset inflows during the week, up from $239 million over the past five weeks, according to CoinShares. Institutions are also looking for alternative vehicles amid mounting military tensions and government capital controls. According to Glassnode, crypto whales have been aggressively buying bitcoin over the past few weeks, which could signal a local bottom has been reached. The last time such a situation was observed was in May last year, when, after a two-month consolidation, the market resumed growth at the end of July. Technically, Bitcoin started March with growth. Thus, BTC has risen in price by 1.9% over the day to $44,100. Ethereum has grown by 2.5%, approaching $3,000. Other leading altcoins from the top ten add with maximum momentum such as Solana (+6.7%) and Terra (+5.2%) The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, grew by 2% over the day, to $1.94 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index is hovering around 43%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index added another point to 52 moving into neutral territory.

XAUUSD grinds rising trendline Gold recovered after the first round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia ended without a resolution. The precious metal found support over 1885. The rising trendline from early February indicates that the general direction is still up despite a choppy path. The previous peak at 1974 is now a fresh resistance and its breach could send the price to the psychological level of 2000. The downside risk is a fall below the said support. Then 1852, near the 30-day moving average, would be the bulls’ second line of defense. AUDUSD attempts reversal The Australian dollar steadied after the RBA warned that energy prices could flare up inflation. A break above the previous high (0.7285) shows buyers’ strong commitment despite sharp liquidation. Sentiment swiftly recovered and may attract more buying interest. An overbought RSI may temporarily limit the upside. And the bulls could be waiting for a pullback to accumulate. 0.7220 is the closest support. A bullish close above the January peak at 0.7310 could initiate a reversal in the medium-term and extend gains towards 0.7400. CADJPY bounces back The Canadian dollar clawed back losses after the Q4 GDP beat expectations. A jump above 90.70 has prompted sellers to cover their bets, opening the door for a potential reversal. 91.10 is the next resistance and its breach could propel the loonie to this year’s high at 92.00. On the downside, the psychological level of 90.00 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. Otherwise, a drop to 89.30 would suggest that sentiment remains fragile. In turn, this would place the pair under pressure once again.

Brent crude prices have jumped 13% since the start of the week, trading above $110 a barrel at the time of writing. These are the highest levels since July 2014. Meanwhile, the ruble continues to retreat against the dollar and euro.  USDRUB is now trading at 106.40 (+5.5%) on the Moscow Exchange, and EURRUB is above 118 (+5%). In both cases, rates are approaching the highs set at the start of trading on Monday. As would be expected, the announced support measures from the Central Bank are softening the fall but not reversing it. The one-way movement in oil prices is since buyers in Europe are increasingly refusing to buy Russian oil, trying to find a replacement for it.  This shift in priorities is visible in the sharp widening of the spread between Urals and Brent. Historically, and without various restrictions, the spread between these grades is $2-3 in favour of the lighter Brent. Now it is more than $17 as buyers are not chartering new shipments. Canada is refusing to buy Russian oil, and the UK (which is much more dependent on energy imports) is considering options for sanctions against the industry.  The European Parliament has passed a resolution calling for EU oil and gas imports restrictions. Thus, Russia has failed to fully benefit from higher prices, losing both in sales volumes and facing an actual fall in selling prices.  The potential for already announced measures destabilises the market, setting Russia up to start using energy or agricultural products as a retaliatory measure. While it is hard to imagine the world without Russian energy in the coming months - it will be as chaotic as the oil crisis in 1973, with the oil price soaring fourfold in six months of the embargo. We may see a smaller price jump but with much wider economic consequences. It is ironic that Europe and Western countries, in general, were helped by the Soviet Union. Now consumers are left to rely on the Middle East and its reserves.  Yesterday, Biden announced an agreed sale of 60m barrels to 30 countries. Still, the market reaction to these announcements indicates that the market was expecting more, and the announced volumes are not enough. It is hard to say the theoretical limit to oil's rise. The Brent price could surpass the 2012 highs of $128 in a matter of days or aim for a historical record of $147.

Today we’re taking a look at oil from a longer-term view after price briefly tested $111. We all know the driver for this month’s surge in the price of oil. Our question as price has started to move back to levels not seen since 2011 is how much further does it have to go? We have to start looking at the conflict in Europe and think has it started to be factored into price? Obviously today that answer could be no as we’ve seen over 11% added to USOUSD (WTI) this week. The reasons for this rally are not exactly like what we saw drive price in 2008. Yes, supply disruptions drove price and supply disruptions are a factor here, but this time it’s centred around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. What happens if the two nations form a peace agreement or on a darker note what happens if Russia escalates the situation? De-escalation we would be looking for price to fall but on escalation, you would think that the rally would continue. Price-wise oil has reached heavy resistance formed back in 2011-2013. The ending diagonal that formed in this resistance actually sunk the last rally above $100. Price looks overextended at this point but the drivers of the rally can’t be discounted. We are looking to see if buyers can break and hold above $112 – $115. A hold above these points could start to set up a new shift in pricing. It could also set off further inflation worries and start to develop global growth worries which could alter current central bank plans. In the levels discussed we see solid supply. It will be a firm statement if buyers can get comfortable back above those levels. From there if dynamics stay supportive, anything could be possible. Traders will need to keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions to see if the drivers continue to feed demand. If things change and price fails to break $112-$115 we could see a fast pullback. The $80 area could be the first port of support. Oil Monthly Chart Chart source, Net Dania Finance chart Uncertainty presents volatility Currently, our margin levels remain unchanged across all instruments and we offer one of the best swap conditions on key instruments such as Gold. Make the most out of market movements right now with Eightcap. For more information on market updates and our swap rates, please contact our award-winning customer service team. The post CFD Update: Oil set to retest 2011 highs? appeared first on Eightcap.

S&P 500 broke through 4,350s in what appears a back and forth consolidation, for now. Credit markets aren‘t leading to the downside – HYG merely corrected within the risk-on sentiment. Stocks and bonds are starting to live with the new realities, and aren‘t undergoing tectonic shifts either way no matter what‘s happening in the real world. Expect to see some chop not of the most volatile flavor next, and for the bulls to step in in the near future.What‘s most interesting about bonds now, is the relenting pressure on the Fed to raise rates – the 2-year yield is moving down noticeably, and that means much practical progress on fighting inflation can‘t be expected. Not that there was much to start with, but the expectations of the hawkish Fed talk turning into action, are being dialed back. The current geopolitical events provide a scene to which attention is fixated while inflation fires keep raging on with renewed vigor (beyond energies) – just as I was calling for a little deceleration in CPI towards the year end bringing it to probably 5-6%, this figure is starting to look too optimistic on the price stability front.Predictable consequence are strong appreciation days across the board in commodities and precious metals – let‘s enjoy the sizable open profits especially in oil and copper. I told you weeks ago that real assets are where to look for in portfolio gains – and even the modest S&P 500 long profits taken off the table yesterday, are taking my portfolio performance chart to fresh highs. I hope you‘ve been enjoying my calls, and are secure in the turmoil around. Way more profits are on the way, and I am not even discussing the lastest agrifoods calls concerning wheat and corn, for all the right reasons (just check out the key exporters overview)…Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis time, the S&P 500 bulls didn‘t shake off the selling pressure – the broad retreat though smacks of temporary setback. As in that the direction to the downside hasn‘t been decided yet – I‘m looking for the buyers to dip their toes here.Credit MarketsHYG downswing didn‘t attract too many sellers, and was partially bought, which means that the pendulum is ready to shift (have a go at shifting) the other way now.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are doing just great, and can be counted on to extend gains. Remember about the rate raising reappreciation that I talked in the long opening part of today‘s analysis – at central banks, that‘s where to look financially.Crude OilCrude oil bears have been taken to the woodshed, except that not at all discreetly. Let‘s keep riding this bull that had brought great profits already, for some more – as I have learned, I was a lone voice calling for more upside before last week‘s events.CopperCopper is a laggard, but still taking part in the upswing. The prior underperformance which I took issue with yesterday, was indeed a bit too odd.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto bulls are consolidating well reasoned and deserved gains, and the circumstances don‘t favor a steep downswing really. The current tight range is likely to be resolved to the upside in due course.SummaryS&P 500 turnaround is not a rickety-free ride, but goes on at its own shaky pace. Stocks are likely to consolidate today as bonds turn a little more in the risk-on side, which reflects last but not least the looming reassessment of hawkish Fed policies. That‘s where the puck is (and will increasingly be even more so as Wayne Gretzky would say) financially, and I discussed that at length in the opening part of today‘s analysis – have a good look. Precious metals and commodities already know they won‘t be crushed by any new Paul Volcker. Enjoy the profitable rides presented !Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

The energy market is very sensitive to fluctuations in supply and demand. For example, a 20% drop in demand in March-May 2020 took away 70% of the oil price at some point. Next, we saw the inverse relationship: a moderate production deficit (even with significant reserves in previous months) was enough to send oil prices to 8-year highs. The same applies to exchange prices for gas. At some point last year, they were approaching $2000 per 1,000 cubic meters, quickly falling back to 800. Today, its value exceeds $2200, and this is hardly the limit. With such sensitive energy prices, it is difficult to imagine a reliable model of how much prices can rise at a critical moment because Russia provides about 20% of oil supplies and 30% of gas to Europe. If we see a political decision (by the EU & US or Russia) or a business decision (if foreign partners refuse to buy energy from Russian companies due to the threat of sanctions), then we may see a complete cessation of oil and gas purchases and prices may repeatedly skyrocket, as was the case in 1973 with the OPEC oil embargo. However, under these conditions, a grey market will emerge, as in the case of Iran, which sold its oil at a deep discount to Asia, mostly to China. It is more likely that the West is set to phase out Russian energy, indirectly holding back investment in the industry and blocking access to technology. As a result, this will lead to a reduction in the share of the Russian Federation on the world stage. The current situation is accelerating long-term plans to redirect energy exports from Europe to China. However, these are projects that will begin to pay dividends only in a few years. Here and now, politics could turn into a price shock on a much larger scale than we have seen in the last 30 years. The scale of the current state of affairs is comparable to that of the 1970s.

The US private sector created 475K jobs in February, compared to 509K and 780K in the previous two months. The growth is significantly above expectations (378K) and indicates the labour market's strength, potentially clearing the way for the Fed to tighten monetary policy. A fundamental revision of several data points is striking. Firstly, last month's value has been revised down from a contraction of 301k to an increase of 509k.Secondly, the indicator's history is revised, so the latest data points to a full employment recovery after the pandemic hit, while a month ago, the number of jobs was estimated to be more than 4M below its peak in February 2020. On the one hand, a strong labour market will allow the Fed to tighten monetary policy more confidently and quickly. On the other hand, it strengthens the inflationary spiral while the Fed can act more cautiously with policy tightening in light of extreme market volatility.

Perhaps you’ve heard of the “Put / Call Ratio” (PCR) and been unsure of exactly what it is or when and how to use it.First, a quick review of what Calls and Puts are. Calls are option contracts that increase in value from a RISE in the price of the underlying stock or index. Puts are option contracts that increase in value from a DROP in the price of the underlying stock or index.Let’s jump in and see what’s “under the hood” and how we might use that to better inform our decision-making as traders and investors.What Is the Put / Call Ratio?The PCR is a contrarian indicator based on the idea that market participants tend to get too bearish or bullish shortly before a reversal is about to materialize. When the market is at a point of extreme bearishness, participants tend to buy more Puts than usual. Conversely, when the market is at a point of extreme bullishness, participants tend to buy more Calls than normal. Contrarian logic suggests that most participants tend to be wrong when the market is near inflection points.Mathematically the Put / Call Ratio is simply the number of Puts divided by the number of Calls. A value of 1 would indicate that the same number of Calls and Puts are being purchased. A value greater than 1 indicates more Puts than Calls purchased. It follows that a value below 1 means that more Calls than Puts are purchased.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!The PCR can be calculated using either open interest or volume of contracts. It can be calculated for individual stocks and for indexes. Most trading and charting platforms have several versions of the PCR available for the major indexes. Indexes generally have charts available, while individual stocks may only have daily numerical value readily available. The PCR is generally more useful as an overall market sentiment indicator for the major indexes like the S&P 500. For most underlying, including major indexes like the S&P 500, the PCR tends to be below 1 much of the time. That makes some sense, as major indexes tend to have a long-term bullish bias. But in times of elevated fear, Put buying tends to be elevated in a rush to buy portfolio “insurance”. Outright bets on a market decline can add to that volume.How Do I Use the pcr?It helps to understand what “normal” behavior is for the number of Calls and Puts purchased for the particular index or stock. For an index like the S&P 500, a PCR of 0.9 or above suggests heavy Put buying and is typically seen as bullish from the contrarian view. For reference, at the height of the dot-com bubble in March 2000, the PCR dropped to as low as 0.39. Lots of calls were being purchased as the market was peaking.Let’s look at some recent examples where we see the Put / Call Ratio at extreme levels. Below we see a chart of the S&P 500 displayed with Heikin Ashi candles overlayed with the PCR (magenta line).In the first instance (circled in magenta), we see a low in the PCR where significantly more Calls than Puts were purchased. When interpreted as a contrarian indicator, that suggests bearishness to come. And indeed, we do see five days of bearishness to follow.We then see a sharp reversal to a relatively high PCR (blue circle), and we do see a bullish reversal that lasted for six days.At the yellow circle, we see a spike up in the PCR accompanied by a sharp increase in the underlying volume. However, we see a few days delay before the bullish reversal materializes in this instance. And the market was rather volatile on those days, as evidenced by the tall candles with long tails.At the green circle, we have a somewhat elevated PCR and another delayed reversal.ConclusionThe PCR is not particularly useful in sideways markets. But it can be useful at market extremes, albeit at times with some delay.Like many indicators, the PCR is far from 100% reliable unto itself. Used in conjunction with volume, volatility (VIX), support/resistance levels, trendlines, moving averages, and other technical indicators, the PCR can give us valuable clues about market sentiment and when a reversal may be in the making.Now That You Know more About the put / call ration, Read On To Learn More About Options TradingEvery day on Options Trading Signals, we do defined risk trades that protect us from black swan events 24/7. Many may think that is what stop losses are for. Well, remember the markets are only open about 1/3 of the hours in a day. Therefore, a stop loss only protects you for 1/3 of each day. Stocks can gap up or down. With options, you are always protected because we do defined risk in a spread. We cover with multiple legs, which are always on once you own.   If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service. The head Options Trading Specialist Brian Benson, who has been trading options for almost 20 years, sends out real live trade alerts on actual trades, such as TSLA and NVDA, with real money. Ready to subscribe, click here:  TheTechnicalTraders.com.Enjoy your day!

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/2/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 698 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,377 contracts and an increase in short positions by 679 contracts. The increase in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen. The decline in total net positions occurred in the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.  Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, markets shifted into risk-off sentiment. From a currency perspective, this means that the euro, pound, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar could weaken. However, the situation is changing very quickly depending on various political statements. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators Date USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399 Feb 01, 2022 34571 29716 -23605 -79829 -11698 -60640 18264 -8239 Jan 25, 2022 36861 31560 -7763 -83273 -10773 -68273 12317 -8796 Jan 18, 2022 36434 24584 -247 -88454 -8331 -80879 7492 -10810 Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the end of this report. Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Bullish Feb 01, 2022 685431 213563 183847 29716 2479 155 1999 -1844 Weak bullish Jan 25, 2022 682952 213408 181848 31560 -8930 1507 -5469 6976 Bullish Jan 18, 2022 691882 211901 187317 24584 9589 7540 -11039 18579 Bullish         Total change 14389 9834 -43467 53301     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 59 306 contracts last week, up by 11 725 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 3,704 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 15,429 contracts. Total net positions have increased by 53,301 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to the fact that large speculators ended 43,467 short positions and addded 9,834 long positions.  This data suggests continued bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest, which fell by 5,465 contracts in the past week, shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was not supported by the volume and therefore it was a weak decline as there were fewer bearish traders in the market.  The euro weakened strongly last week under the influence of the war in Ukraine and reached strong support at 1.1120. Long-term resistance: 1.1280 – 1.1300. Next resistance is near 1.1370 – 1.1400. Support: 1.1100-1.1140   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 184007 29597 53202 -23605 1967 -7069 8773 -15842 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 182040 36666 44429 -7763 -1194 -3094 4422 -7516 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 183234 39760 40007 -247 -17259 9254 -19665 28919 Weak bearish         Total Change -12050 11743 -11614 23357     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to - 5,809 contracts, down by 8,046 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 7,902 contracts and an increase in short positions by 144 contracts. Total net positions have increased by 23,357 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exiting 11,614 short positions and adding 11,743 long positions. The decline in total net positions of large speculators into negative territory indicates bearish sentiment for the pound. Open interest, which fell by 6,859 contracts last week, indicates that the decline in the pound that occurred last week was not supported by volume and was therefore weak. The pound, just as the euro, might be negatively impacted by risk-off sentiment which could then send the pound towards support which is at 1.3300 or possibly 1.3200. Long-term resistance: 1.3620-1.3640.  Next resistance is near 1.3680 – 1.3750. The resistance is also in the zone 1.3490 – 1.3520. Support is near 1.3270 – 1.3300 and then mainly in the zone 1.3200.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish Feb 01, 2022 196913 18835 98664 -79829 6893 3714 270 3444 Weak bearish Jan 25, 2022 190020 15121 98394 -83273 8884 6070 889 5181 Weak bearish Jan 18, 2022 181136 9051 97505 -88454 -4317 -3332 -6364 3032 Weak bearish         Total Change 7126 -830 -8236 7406     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1 Total net speculator positions last week reached -84,080 contracts, up 2,614 contracts from the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 139 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 2,753 contracts. This data suggests a weakening of the bearish sentiment for the Australian dollar, which is confirmed by the downtrend. Total net positions have increased by 7,406 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exiting 8,236 short contracts while exiting 830 long contracts. However, there was an increase in open interest of 1 contract last week. This means that the upward movement that occurred last week was weak in terms of volume because new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar is very sensitive to the international geopolitical situation. In the event of geopolitical instability, it can usually be expected to weaken especially in the AUDUSD pair and also the AUDJPY. However, last week the Australian dollar surprisingly strengthened and approached the resistance band. Long-term resistance: 0.7270-0.7310                                                                                                         &nb