european central bank exchange rates

Summary:

  • The Fed remains fixated on crushing inflation.
  • Martins Kazaks announced that it was worth looking at a 50 basis point hike.
  • The AUD is benefitting from the reopening of the Chinese economy.

Read next: EUR/USD Currency Pair Bullish, KPMG Cuts Growth Forecast For Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD), RBC Capital Markets Recommend Selling GBP/SEK 

ECB Forum Starts on Tuesday

The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The US Dollar softens in the wake of concerns around a looming recession that comes in the wake of a slowing economy on rising interest rates. Despite these concerns the Federal Reserve bank has made it clear that their focus is on containing surging inflation.

The Euro has held onto Monday gains, the European Central Bank (ECB) will get under way today.

US Dollar Softening Due To Recession Fears (EUR/USD), Is A 50bps Interest Rate Hike Due To Kick Off The ECB Interest Rate Hiking Cycle ? (EUR/GBP), AUD Recovering As China Reopens Their Economy - 1 EUR/USD Price Chart

ECB has a busy week for interest rate policy

The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. It is looking likely that the European Central Ban

ECB April Preview: Quicker end to QE to help euro recover

ECB April Preview: Quicker end to QE to help euro recover

FXStreet News FXStreet News 13.04.2022 16:55
Euro has been struggling to find demand since the beginning of April. ECB is widely expected to leave key rates unchanged. A hawkish shift in ECB's policy outlook could trigger a steady rebound in EUR/USD. EUR/USD is already down more than 2% in April amid the apparent policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). The European economy is widely expected to suffer heavier damage from a protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine than the US economy, and the Fed remains on track to hike its policy rate by 50 basis points in May. The shared currency needs the ECB to adopt a hawkish policy stance in order to stay resilient against the greenback. In March, the ECB left interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively. The bank further announced that monthly net purchases under the Asset Purchase Programme (APP), which were initially planned to end in the fourth quarter, will amount to €40 billion in April, €30 billion in May and €20 billion in June before ending in the third quarter. Related article: ECB Interest Rate Decision Is Coming! European Indices (DAX, CAC40) To Plunge Or Rise? What About Forex Pairs? The accounts of the ECB’s March meeting revealed earlier in the month that a large number of the governing council members held the view that the current high level of inflation and its persistence called for immediate further steps towards monetary policy normalization. Hawkish scenario The ECB could decide to adjust the monthly purchases to open the door for a rate hike in the second half of the year if needed. The bank might keep the purchases under APP unchanged at €40 billion in April but bring them down to €20 billion in May to conclude the program by June. Even if the policy statement refrains from offering hints on the timing of the first rate increase, such an action could be seen as a sign pointing to a June hike. In a less-hawkish stance, the bank may choose to leave the APP as it is but change the wording on the QE to say that it will be completed in June rather than in Q3. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s language on the timing of the rate hike will be key if the bank decides not to touch the APP. During the press conference in March, Lagarde noted that the rate hike would come “some time” after the end of QE. If Lagarde confirms that they will raise the policy rate right after they end the APP, this could also be seen as a hawkish change in forward guidance. Dovish scenario The ECB might downplay inflation concerns and choose to shift its focus to supporting the economy in the face of heightened uncertainty by leaving the policy settings and the language on the outlook unchanged. The euro is likely to come under heavy selling pressure if the bank reiterates that the APP will end in the third quarter as planned. That would push the timing of the first rate hike toward September and put the ECB way behind the curve in comparison to other major central banks. According to the CME Group FedWatch, markets are pricing in a more-than-60% probability of back-to-back 50 bps hikes in May and June. Conclusion The ECB is likely to respond to the euro’s weakness, aggressive tightening prospects of major central banks and hot inflation in the euro area by turning hawkish in April. For EUR/USD to stage a steady rebound, however, the bank may have to convince markets that they are preparing to hike the policy rate by June. On the other hand, there will be no reason to stop betting against the euro if the bank chooses to leave its policy settings and forward guidance unchanged. EUR/USD technical outlook EUR/USD closed the previous seven trading days below the 20-day SMA and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator stays below 40, suggesting that bears continue to dominate the pair’s action. On the downside, 1.0800 (psychological level, March low) aligns as first support. With a daily close below that level on a dovish ECB, EUR/USD could target 1.0700 (psychological level) and 1.0630 (March 2020 low). Key resistance seems to have formed at 1.0900 (psychological level, static level). In case this level turns into support, a steady rebound toward 1.1000 (psychological level, 20-day SMA) and 1.1100 (static level, psychological level) could be witnessed.
Sustainability-Linked Products: Navigating Growth and Challenges for the Future

Concerns Of A Global Recession Continue To Weigh On Markets - Take A Look At The EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/AUD And EUR/JPY Currency Pairs

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 24.06.2022 13:32
Summary: ECB expected to increase rates at a faster pace. CBA thinks the AUD is at risk of trading at its lowest levels against the GBP since the start of the pandemic.\\ Read next: Data Showed A Slowing Eurozone Economy (EUR/USD, EUR/CHF), UK PMI Data Came In Stronger Than Expected (EUR/GBP), NZD Was The Top Performing Currency On Thursday (GBP/NZD)  EUR/USD currency pair The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. At this point, the market expects to see a continuing hawkish Federal Reserve, pushing both interest rates and long-term rates up even further, thus, the USD is likely to remain strong for most of the remainder of 2022. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates further and at a faster pace, the ECB has already communicated hikes in both July and September, as it tries to contain the Eurozone inflation narrative. As concerns around a global recession tighten, the aggressive 75 basis point rate hike made by the Fed has caused investors to be more cautious across the board. EUR/USD Price Chart Eurozone and UK economy slowing. The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. UK retail sales declined in May as consumers felt the pain of rising prices which in turn did not allow the pound sterling a boost heading into the weekend. In addition the retail data from the UK came after the data revealved by France and Germany also missed market expectations. The markets are expecting economic slowdown in both the UK and Eurozone economies. EUR/GBP Price Chart CBA outlook on AUD According to the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), the Australian Dollar is at risk of trading at its lowest levels against the British pound since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. The CBA sees the AUD as being amongst the most vulnerable currencies to the recent souring of the global economic outlook. GBP/AUD Price Chart EUR/JPY The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. As the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to weaken in the wake of a dovish Bank of Japan (BoJ), the Euro is also experiencing troubles in the wake of disappointing economic data released from France and Germany, which indicates a slowing of the Eurozone economy. EUR/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
ECB press conference brings more fog than clarity

US Dollar Softening Due To Recession Fears (EUR/USD), Is A 50bps Interest Rate Hike Due To Kick Off The ECB Interest Rate Hiking Cycle ? (EUR/GBP), AUD Recovering As China Reopens Their Economy

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 28.06.2022 14:01
Summary: The Fed remains fixated on crushing inflation. Martins Kazaks announced that it was worth looking at a 50 basis point hike. The AUD is benefitting from the reopening of the Chinese economy. Read next: EUR/USD Currency Pair Bullish, KPMG Cuts Growth Forecast For Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD), RBC Capital Markets Recommend Selling GBP/SEK  ECB Forum Starts on Tuesday The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The US Dollar softens in the wake of concerns around a looming recession that comes in the wake of a slowing economy on rising interest rates. Despite these concerns the Federal Reserve bank has made it clear that their focus is on containing surging inflation. The Euro has held onto Monday gains, the European Central Bank (ECB) will get under way today. EUR/USD Price Chart ECB has a busy week for interest rate policy The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. It is looking likely that the European Central Bank (ECB) is due to start its interest rate hiking cycle with a 50 basis point hike. After Martins Kazaks announced that it was worth looking at a 50 basis point hike the Euro strengthened against both the pound sterling and the US Dollar. This trading week is a busy one for the ECB interest rate policy as central bankers descend on Sintra, Portugal for the ECBs annual central banking get-together. EUR/GBP Price Chart AUD/JPY currency pair The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. As China comes out of its lockdowns, thus, boosting market expectations of a recovery in the second largest economy in the world and Australia’s largest export market. The Australian Dollar has strengthened in the wake of the news. Due to equities holding onto recent gains and the Japanese Yen’s safe-haven status, the currency is underperforming. AUD/JPY Price Chart GBP/JPY currency pair The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The GBP/JPY currency pair is drifting higher as we near to the month end. It is natural for the Japanese Yen to underperform during this time as equities are holding onto their gains due to its safe-haven status. GBP/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com

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