eurgbp forex

  • EUR/GBP drifts lower for the fifth straight day and drops to a nearly two-week low on Tuesday.
  • The GBP’s relative outperformance comes amid rising bets for additional rate hikes by the BoE.
  • The mixed UK jobs data fails to push back against hawkish BoE expectations or lend any support.
  • Speculations for more jumbo rate hikes by the ECB warrant caution for aggressive bearish traders.

The EUR/GBP cross remains under some selling pressure for the fifth successive day on Tuesday and drops to a nearly two-week low during the early European session. The selling bias remains unabated following the release of the mixed UK monthly employment details and drags spot prices below the 0.8800 mark, with bears now eyeing to challenge a technically significant 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

In fact, the UK Office for National Statistics reported that the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits fell by 11.2K in February, less than the 12.4 decline anticipated. The slight

The EUR/USD Pair Showed Local Speculative Interest In Short Positions Yesterday

(EUR/USD) US Dollar Continues To Strengthen, BoEs Inflation Forecast and Economic Outlook Due On Thursday - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 03.05.2022 12:22
Summary: EUR/USD breaks below 1.05. BoE’s and Fed monetary policy decisions due on during the trading week. GBP relying on the Fed’s quantitative tightening decisions. EURO is under pressure. The EURO lost more ground to the USD during the trading day on Tuesday, the price is sitting below 1.05. The first quarter of 2022 has not been positive for the EURO, with the Russia-Ukraine conflict still raging, the post-covid world, the hawkish Fed and lockdowns in China, are all putting pressure on the already weakening EURO. The market sentiment for this currency pair is mixed. EUR/USD Price Chart Read next: GBP: BoE Expected to Raise Yields, US Dollar (USD) Strengthens across the board - Good Morning Forex!  GBP sees strength against the EUR The GBP has strengthened against the EUR since the market opened this morning, however market sentiment is showing bullish signals. The strengthening of the GBP comes in anticipation of the Bank of Englands (BoEs) announcements due on Thursday, the market expectation is to see a hawkish BoE. If the BoE remains dovish, we could see the EURO bounce back. EUR/GBP Price Chart USD/CAD beats March high on Tuesday. The USD strengthened against the CAD on Tuesday, it's a busy week for the USD, the Federal Reserve is due to announce its monetary policy decision. The market sentiment for this currency pair is showing bullish signals, however, investor sentiment and confidence could easily be swayed in the coming days. USD/CAD Price Chart GBP shows strength against the USD. The Bank of Englands (BoE) monetary policy is the key driver for its small recovery against the USD, however the future of this currency pair lies in the decision of the Fed. The Fed is expected to begin the balance sheet reduction process through quantitative tightening could have adverse effects on the GBP. The market sentiment for this currency pair is bullish. GBP/USD Price Chart Read next: US Dollar (USD) Continues To Trump The EUR, BoE Expected To Increase Interest Rates, SNB Remains Dovish, South African Rand (ZAR) Performance  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
USD/CHF - US Dollar Is Awaiting Jobs Market Data, While Swiss Inflation May Trigger SNB To Hike The Interest Rate, Boosting Swiss Franc In Consequence

US Dollar (USD) Expected To Strengthen As Investors Await Fed’s Interest Announcement (EUR/USD, AUD/USD), BoE are Expected To Raise Their Interest Rates (EUR/GBP), (AUD/USD) Showing Mixed Market Sentiment Signals, USD/CHF Is Bullish

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 04.05.2022 11:50
Summary: The Fed is expected to tighten monetary policy further. BoE is expected to raise interest rates. RBA raises interest rates for the first time since 2010. SNB remains dovish in their fight against inflation. EURO expected to weaken further against the USD. Market sentiment is bearish for this currency pair, the market sentiment comes as market participants await the Fed’s interest rate announcement, investors expect a further 50 bp rise in interest rates which will result in a stronger US Dollar. Prices are continuing to rise despite the hawkish Fed, if this continues after the next interest rate increase, there could be trouble for the USD. EUR/USD Price Chart   Read next: (EUR/USD) US Dollar Continues To Strengthen, BoEs Inflation Forecast and Economic Outlook Due On Thursday - Good Morning Forex!    GBP showing further strengthening potential against the EUR. The EUR has been weakening against the GBP since the market opened this morning. The GBP strengthening against the EUR comes with expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to increase the interest rate yields by 25bps. The European Central Bank (ECB) is still behind the United Kingdom when it comes to tightening monetary policies, causing the EUR to weaken. The current market sentiment for the currency pair is bearish. EUR/GBP Price Chart The Reserve Bank of Australia raises interest rates for the first time since 2010. Since the market opened this morning, the price of the AUD/USD has increased by more than 0.3%. Market sentiment for this currency pair is mixed. The AUD is not giving the USD more opportunity to strengthen. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised their interest rates for the first time since 2010, the tightening of monetary policy comes in an attempt to fight the rising inflation. The AUD is a risk asset, which means its price is levered to commodities. The US Dollar is expected to pull back against the AUD as the world slows down and the hawkish Fed continues its war against inflation. AUD/USD Price Chart CHF Weakens as SNB remains dovish. The US Dollar is expected to strengthen against the Swiss Franc with the market sentiment showing bullish signals. The continuing hawkish attitude of the Fed and the dovish attitude of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), means the strengthening of the USD against the CHF is likely to continue. USD/CHF Price Chart   Read next: GBP: BoE Expected to Raise Yields, US Dollar (USD) Strengthens across the board - Good Morning Forex!    Source: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com
EUR/USD Faces Pressure Amid PMI Releases: Is More Downside Ahead?

(EUR/USD) ECB Reveals The Possibility Of Interest Rate Increases In July, Negative Investor Sentiment Towards The GBP, Investor Sentiment Turns Bullish For The AUD/JPY Pair - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 05.05.2022 10:53
Summary: Market sentiment turns bullish for the EUR/USD currency pair. Pound Sterling is facing selling pressure. Investor sentiment for the AUD changes. CHF/JPY finding a new trading range. Read next: US Dollar (USD) Expected To Strengthen As Investors Await Fed’s Interest Announcement (EUR/USD, AUD/USD), BoE are Expected To Raise Their Interest Rates (EUR/GBP), (AUD/USD) Showing Mixed Market Sentiment Signals, USD/CHF Is Bullish  ECB reveals the possible increase in interest rates in July The market sentiment on Thursday for this currency pair is showing bullish signals. On Wednesday the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that there is a strong possibility that another 50bp hike in interest rates is possible, as the hawkish Fed continues in their fight against inflation. The bullish market sentiment comes with increasing investor confidence in the EUR after the European Central Bank (ECB) revealed that an increase in the interest rates could be possible in July. EUR/USD Price Chart Pound Sterling losing ground on the forex market The EUR/GBP currency pair is currently showing mixed market sentiment. The GBP is facing pressure against the EUR, this comes hours before the Bank of England (BoE) is set to announce interest rate hikes and the possibility of quantitative tightening plans (process of selling some of the bonds purchased under quantitative easing). The GBP has lost ground against most other currencies, reflecting the negative investor sentiment towards the Pound Sterling. In addition, investor confidence in the EUR has improved. EUR/GBP Price Chart AUD gains on JPY overnight Investor sentiment is currently showing bullish signals. The price of this currency pair strengthened since Wednesday as a result of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) deciding to tighten their monetary policy. Investor sentiment for the AUD has turned positive, despite the recent losses faced by this currency. AUD/JPY Price Chart CHF/JPY signalling bullish market sentiment Both of these currencies are viewed as safe-haven currencies, due to their financial properties and low interest rates. Market sentiment is still bullish for this currency pair. The CHF/JPY tend to trade within similar ranges, which is unsurprising due to their similar fundamental characteristics, right now the currency pair is finding a new range to trade in. CHF/JPY Price Chart Read next: (EUR/USD) US Dollar Continues To Strengthen, BoEs Inflation Forecast and Economic Outlook Due On Thursday - Good Morning Forex! Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
Risks in the US Banking System: Potential Impacts and Contagion Concerns

(EUR/USD) All Eyes On The US Bureau Of Labour Statistics’ Results Due On Friday, (EUR/GBP) Bleak Economic Outlook For the UK Sends GBP Spiralling - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 06.05.2022 11:20
Summary: US forex and stock markets await labour statistics. The UK economic outlook shocks the market. CHF weakens further.   Read next: (EUR/USD) ECB Reveals The Possibility Of Interest Rate Increases In July, Negative Investor Sentiment Towards The GBP, Investor Sentiment Turns Bullish For The AUD/JPY Pair - Good Morning   EUR shows slight strengthening against the US Dollar The price of the EUR/USD currency pair has increased since the market opened this morning. The strengthening of the Euro comes as the market awaits the release of the latest nonfarm payrolls data due from the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics, which are expected to have decreased over the past month. If there were any chance of the labour crisis being improved, the Fed may slow on their aggressive monetary policy. The market sentiment for this currency pair is mixed, investors are awaiting the announcement from the Bureau of Labour Statistics, if the results are favourable, we could see the US Dollar strengthen even more, if the results are below market expectations, we could see the EUR temporarily strengthen further against the US Dollar during the trading day. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP weakens against the EUR Market sentiment is showing bullish signals for this currency pair. On Thursday the Bank of England (BoE) announced their May economic forecast, which reflected a bleak picture. The BoE forecasted inflation to reach around 10% by the end of the year, along with expectations that the UK economy will slow, this forecast made the market turn away from the GBP. In the current economic environment, it is likely that other economies will face the same issues as the UK. EUR/GBP Price Chart CHF continues to weaken against the USD This currency pair is showing bullish market signals for the future. The US Dollar continues to strengthen against the Swiss Franc, the hawkish Fed and dovish SNB are factors driving investors to be net-short. USD/CHF Price Chart USD shows strength against the GBP. The GBP has weakened substantially against the USD in the past 24 hours. The Weakness of the pound sterling is reflective of the fact that the market and the Bank of England (BoE) have differing views of where they believe interest rates are going. Despite the BoE announcing that more interest rate hikes are on the way, markets have still reflected their lack of confidence in the currency. The hawkish Fed continues to drive the US Dollar's strength. GBP/USD Price Chart   Read next: US Dollar (USD) Expected To Strengthen As Investors Await Fed’s Interest Announcement (EUR/USD, AUD/USD), BoE are Expected To Raise Their Interest Rates (EUR/GBP), (AUD/USD) Showing Mixed Market Sentiment Signals, USD/CHF Is Bullish    Sources: finance.yahoo.com, bankofengland.co.uk, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Australian CPI Expected to Rise to 5.2%: Impact on AUD/USD and RBA's Rate Hike Dilemma

(EUR/USD) US Dollar Continues To Trump the EUR, (EUR/GBP)(GBP/JPY) Pound Sterling Unlikely To Recover Anytime Soon.

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 09.05.2022 09:54
Summary: Between the Russia Ukraine war and the hawkish Fed, the EUR is battling to recover. Negative global investor sentiment is causing the GBP to struggle even more. EUR continues to strengthen against the CHF. GBP/JPY currency pair. The possibility of a recession in the EU looms. Since the market opened on Monday, the US Dollar has strengthened almost a further 0.5% against the Euro. Investor confidence in the Euro has plummeted as some investors believe that the Euro will eventually end up level with the US Dollar, this comes as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues and the EU oil embargo on Russia. Investors are concerned over the possibility of a recession in the European Union. In addition the hawkish fed increasing interest rates in their attempt to fight inflation is causing investors to turn from the EUR, which is further driving the price down. EUR/USD Price Chart   Read next: (EUR/USD) All Eyes On The US Bureau Of Labour Statistics’ Results Due On Friday, (EUR/GBP) Bleak Economic Outlook For the UK Sends GBP Spiralling - Good Morning Forex!    EUR showing strength against the GBP Since the market opened on Monday, the EUR has strengthened against the GBP. The weakening of the pound sterling to the EUR comes after the Bank of Englands (BoEs) cautious interest rate hike in the midst of negative global investor sentiment. However, market sentiment for this currency pair is showing mixed signals. According to poundsterlinglive.com, any near future strengthening in the GBP is likely to be short lived. EUR/GBP Price Chart CHF losing more ground to the EUR On Monday the market sentiment for the EUR/CHF currency pair was reflecting a bullish signal. With the Swiss National Bank (SNB) refusing to tighten their monetary policy, the EUR has been strengthening against the CHF over the past month and will likely continue to do so. EUR/CHF Price Chart Pound Sterling attempts recovery against the JPY Despite the lack of investor confidence in the Pound Sterling, the GBP has still strengthened against the JPY on Monday, with market sentiment showing bullish signals for the future. The strengthening of the GBP has been very small. The positive price change comes in an attempted recovery after the Yen strengthened against the Pound Sterling last week amidst the BoEs announcements. GBP/JPY Price Chart   Read next: (EUR/USD) ECB Reveals The Possibility Of Interest Rate Increases In July, Negative Investor Sentiment Towards The GBP, Investor Sentiment Turns Bullish For The AUD/JPY Pair - Good Morning Forex!    Sources: poundsterlinglive.com, finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com
The EUR/JPY Pair Is Expected To Start A New Zig-Zag Correction

(EUR/USD) Wall Street Tanks, Allowing the Euro To Slightly Recover, (EUR/GBP) Goldman Sachs Betting Against GBP, JPY Gets The Better Of The US Dollar And EUR - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 10.05.2022 11:58
Summary: Euro gained slightly against the USD after the poor performance of the US markets on Monday. Goldman Sachs placing their confidence in the value of the EURO. JPY gains slightly against the EUR and USD on Tuesday. Read next: (EUR/USD) US Dollar Continues To Trump the EUR, (EUR/GBP)(GBP/JPY) Pound Sterling Unlikely To Recover Anytime Soon.  EUR gains some ground against the USD. Markets turned around on Monday with the EUR/USD currency pair with market sentiment showing bullish signals. The Euro is gaining value despite the surging US Dollar, at the end of the trading day on Monday Wall Street has tanked with the Nasdaq down 4.29%. As investors turn away from risky assets such as forex, and move to safer investments such as treasuries, the value of the US Dollar is facing potential pressure. Investors are concerned around the Feds shrinking balance sheet as liquidity dries up. EUR/USD Price Chart Pound Sterling losing value against the Euro. On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs bet the EUR will continue to gain against the GBP, as the market for the EUR/GBP currency pair continues to reflect a bullish sentiment. The European Central Bank (ECB) seems intent on raising interest rates by the summer, showing a more hawkish attitude than the Bank of England (BoE) who believe that inflation will return to normal levels on its own. This BoE attitude is causing investors to lose confidence in the Pound Sterling and causing its value to decrease. EUR/GBP Price Chart JPY receives momentary relief from the USD Although the JPY has gained on the US Dollar on Tuesday, the USD/JPY currency pair is reflecting a bullish market sentiment. The strengthening against the USD comes after the carnage the US markets saw on Monday. Whether or not this strengthening will continue is unlikely as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues their monetary easing in their attempt to boost the economy. USD/JPY Price Chart JPY markets best performer on Monday The EUR is losing ground to the JPY during the trading day on Tuesday, the EUR/JPY currency pair is reflecting a mixed market sentiment. As risk averse investors fled to safety assets given the US markets performance, the Japanese Yen was the forex markets top performer on Monday, which gave it the chance to strengthen against the EUR and the USD. EUR/JPY Price Chart Read next: (EUR/USD) All Eyes On The US Bureau Of Labour Statistics’ Results Due On Friday, (EUR/GBP) Bleak Economic Outlook For the UK Sends GBP Spiralling - Good Morning Forex!  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
ECB's Dovish Shift: Markets Anticipate Softer Policy Guidance

(EUR/USD) German Inflation Meets Forecasts, Pound Sterling Continues To Weaken (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD), (EUR/JPY) Japanese Yen Strengthens As Investors Seek Safe-Haven Assets - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 11.05.2022 13:27
Summary: US Dollar sentiment awaits CPI report. EUR continues to strengthen against the Pound Sterling. JPY safe-haven is attractive to investors. Read next: (EUR/USD) Wall Street Tanks, Allowing the Euro To Slightly Recover, (EUR/GBP) Goldman Sachs Betting Against GBP, JPY Gets The Better Of The US Dollar And EUR - Good Morning Forex!  EUR gains slightly on the US Dollar For the trading day on wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair is reflecting mixed market signals. The Euro remained stable today after Germany announced their April inflation amount was 7.4%, which was inline with forecasts. The German announcements have investors hoping the European Central Bank (ECB) comments today will come with a more hawkish tone. The market sentiment remains mixed as investors await the U.S CPI report due later today. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP not seeing price relief against the Euro Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bullish signals. Investors are tending to go net long on this currency pair as they expect the Euro to continue to strengthen. The Pound sterling value does not seem to be receiving any relief from its current price fall. Despite the Bank of Englands (BoE) 1% increase in interest rates in May, the other economic forecasts made spooked investors away from the currency. EUR/GBP Price Chart JPY safe-haven currency becomes more attractive The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. As the adverse wider economic conditions continue, investors are turning away from riskier assets, the Japanese Yen is considered a safe-haven currency, making it an attractive investment for risk averse investors. Hence, the investor sentiment is driving the price of the JPY upwards and therefore the price of this currency pair downwards. EUR/JPY Price Chart Bearish sentiment for the Pound Sterling continues The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The USD continues to get stronger and the GBP continues to weaken in the overall market. The GBP has seen some relief against the USD on Wednesday, but the longevity of this trend is unlikely. GBP/USD Price Chart Read next: (EUR/USD) US Dollar Continues To Trump the EUR, (EUR/GBP)(GBP/JPY) Pound Sterling Unlikely To Recover Anytime Soon.  Sources: dailyfx.com, finance.yahoo.com, poundsterling.com
Pound rises despite Boris turmoil

(EUR/USD) USD Continues To Rally, (EUR/GBP) Pound Sterling Unlikely To See Relief, (EUR/CHF, AUD/NZD) - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 12.05.2022 11:57
Summary: The US Dollar continues to rally in the wake of the U.S CPI report. GBP is likely to see currency value weaken in the future. Market participants expect to see some strength in the EUR. Is the AUD starting to lose momentum? Read next: (EUR/USD) German Inflation Meets Forecasts, Pound Sterling Continues To Weaken (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD), (EUR/JPY) Japanese Yen Strengthens As Investors Seek Safe-Haven Assets - Good Morning Forex!  The US Dollar continues to strengthen against the EUR   The market is signalling bearish market sentiment for the EUR/USD currency pair. During early trading on Thursday the US Dollar strengthened to a two-decade high after U.S inflation remained high. The U.S CPI report revealed that although inflation could likely have reached its peak, it is still high and the Fed’s current aggressive tightening of monetary policy is likely to remain aggressive. This is causing the US Dollar to strengthen even further against the EURO. EUR/USD Price Chart Pound Sterling is likely to continue to weaken. The market sentiment for this currency pair is showing bullish signals. However, during early trading on Thursday the price of this currency pair has lost value. Going forward it is likely that the market will see a Pound Sterling that continues to weaken in the wake of rising prices and inflation. The combination of a government unwilling to help and an inflation-weary UK public are two factors that will contribute to the further weakening of the GBP. In addition, it is expected that the Pound Sterling is likely to fall further against the Euro and USD as the economic outlook in the UK deteriorates and prompts the Bank of England (BoE) to ease the rising interest rates. EUR/GBP Price Chart EUR expected to strengthen against CHF The market sentiment for this currency pair is showing bullish signals. Investors expect the EUR to strengthen against the CHF. Market participants expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates for the first time in more than 10 years in the summer. Whilst the Swiss National Bank (SNB) remains dovish in their fight against inflation. EUR/CHF Price Chart NZD strengthens slightly against the AUD After the National Australia Bank (NAB) increased their interest rates early in May, the AUD/NZD currency pair increased in value. The momentum for this move has somewhat slowed since then. However, the pair still seems to be showing volatility. AUD/NZD Price Chart Read next: (EUR/USD) Wall Street Tanks, Allowing the Euro To Slightly Recover, (EUR/GBP) Goldman Sachs Betting Against GBP, JPY Gets The Better Of The US Dollar And EUR - Good Morning Forex!  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Sustainability-Linked Products: Navigating Growth and Challenges for the Future

ECB Offering The Euro Support (EUR/USD), Strengthening Of The Renminbi Supporting The EUR and GBP, SNB Turns Hawkish (EUR/CHF) - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 23.05.2022 10:29
Summary: ECB offering support to the EUR, whilst easing lockdowns in China aids in the weakening US Dollar. Euro and GBP are likely to strengthen with the Renminbi. SNB and ECB hawkishness offers support to their respective currencies. GBP/CAD Read next: US Dollar Is Likely To Experience Volatility In The Coming Weeks (EUR/USD), UK Retail Data Exceeds Market Expectations (EUR/GBP), SNB Turns Hawkish Causing the CHF To Rally (EUR/CHF) - Good Morning Forex!  Easing lockdowns in China dragging down the US Dollar Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bullish signals. On Monday the European Central Bank (ECB) announced that it is likely that July would be the starting period for raising interest rates. At the same time, the easing of lockdowns in China has aided in weakening the US Dollar. The trading week is full of US events along with some European Central Bank events, all of which will be watched closely. EUR/USD Price Chart Euro and GBP both showing signs of strengthening Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting mixed signals. The prospect of the Chinese Renminbi rebounding is likely to have a positive impact on the value of both the Pound Sterling and the Euro. In addition the market believes that the Bank of England (BoE) is likely to continue raising interest rates in the coming months along with the increased likelihood of the European Central Bank (ECB) raising the interest rates. EUR/GBP Price Chart SNB and ECB hawkishness caused mixed sentiment for this currency pair. On Thursday last week the president of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) said that they were ready to act on the rising inflation, the hawkishness of the SNB caused the Swiss Franc to rally. The potential hawkishness of the European Central Bank (ECB) is also causing the Euro to strengthen, leaving the market sentiment for this currency pair showing mixed signals. EUR/CHF Price Chart GBP rallies against the CAD The strengthening of the GBP against the CAD throughout last week has come in the wake of increasing UK government bond yields. The strengthening came in the wake of the release of UK employment data, inflation and retail data all which support further increases in the UK government bond yields. GBP/CAD Price Chart Read next: (FTSE) FTSE 100 Rallies In Response To Positive Economic Data, US Dollar Expected To See More Volatility  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
Energy and Metals Decline, Wheat Rallies Amid Disappointing Chinese Growth

Hawkish ECB Bodes Well For The Euro, UK PMI Data Disappoints (EUR/GBP), Hawkish SNB Offers Swiss Franc Still Support (USD/CHF), AUD/JPY - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 24.05.2022 13:23
Summary: The ECB turning hawkish is causing the Euro to strengthen. Disappointing PMI data caused the GBP to weaken. Hawkish SNB offers CHF support. Read next: ECB Offering The Euro Support (EUR/USD), Strengthening Of The Renminbi Supporting The EUR and GBP, SNB Turns Hawkish (EUR/CHF) - Good Morning Forex!  Euro trumps US Dollar Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bullish signals, which means investors are confident in the Euro. The strengthening of the Euro comes after the European Central Bank’s (ECB) President Christine Lagarde confirmed market expectations that the ECB would raise interest rates in July. The hawkish sentiment of the ECB has instilled investor confidence in the Euro, despite the continuing hawkish Fed, investors are still turning to the Euro due to concerns around the US economy falling into a recession. EUR/USD Price Chart Pound Sterling Weakens after PMI data release The Release of PMI data showed that the UK economy was close to contracting in May, the results came in well below expectations, a figure that is out of the ordinary. The Pound Sterling weakened based on this news and JP Morgan has flagged the UK economy as the “poster child” for stagflation. The market sentiment for the EUR/GBP currency pair is reflecting bullish signals. EUR/GBP Price Chart Swiss Franc continues to trump US Dollar Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting a bearish sentiment. Late last week and this week the Swiss Franc began strengthening against the US Dollar, this comes in the wake of both the concerns around the slowing US economy and in conjunction the hawkish attitude from the Swiss National Bank (SNB). USD/CHF Price Chart AUD/JPY currency pair Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bullish signals. This currency pair has experienced a lot of volatility over the past week. In addition there is a temporary pause in the growth of the JPY as investors are starting to be less weary about taking on some risk. AUD/JPY Price Chart Read next: (DJIA) Dow Jones Index Rising, Investors Confidence In The Euro Is Looking Bullish As ECB Confirm Interest Rate Increases  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Britain's Rishi Sunak And EU's Ursula Von Der Leyen Will Meet Today To Finalize The Northern Ireland Drama

FOMC Meeting Minutes Offer Support To The US Dollar (EUR/USD), Improved Market Attitude Favoured The GBP On Thursday (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD), Market Awaits RBA Monetary Policy - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.05.2022 11:58
Summary: Investor confidence in both the Euro and US Dollar causing mixed sentiment for the EUR/USD currency pair. GBP beats Euro and USD despite poor PMI data released on Tuesday. RBA June policy meeting will determine the AUD strength Read next: Hawkish ECB Bodes Well For The Euro, UK PMI Data Disappoints (EUR/GBP), Hawkish SNB Offers Swiss Franc Still Support (USD/CHF), AUD/JPY - Good Morning Forex!  Mixed sentiment for the EUR/USD The market is reflecting mixed market signals for this major currency pair. In the Wake of the FOMC meeting minutes, the US Dollar has found some stability. The market can expect a 50bp interest rate hike at the next two Fed meetings, with a possible pause in the hikes later on in the year. The Euro is also on an upward streak with the strong possibility of the European Central Bank (ECB) tightening monetary policy in July. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP strengthens The market is reflecting bearish market sentiment for this currency pair. On Thursday the GBP recovered some of its losses against the Euro after the UK PMI report on Tuesday. Improved market attitude acted in favour of the Pound Sterling against the Euro on Thursday. However, the outlook for the GBP still looks challenging going forward with an overly cautious Bank of England, high-inflation and global risk aversion. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP/USD reflecting bullish sentiment Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bullish signals. On Thursday the GBP recovered some of its losses against the US Dollar. Improved market attitude acted in favour of the Pound Sterling against the US Dollar on Thursday. GBP/USD Price Chart Future of the AUD waits the RBA monetary policy decision The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) June policy meeting will likely see a future hike in interest rates. If the RBA tightens their monetary policy the Australian Dollar could strengthen. If the RBA chooses a dovish approach, the Aussie Dollar could struggle. AUD/USD Price Chart Read next: EUR Falls To US Dollar (EUR/USD), Pound Sterling Due To Weaken As UK Recession Looms (EUR/GBP), Market Awaits Fed Meeting Minutes (USD/CHF, GBP/USD)  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundtserlinglive.com
JPY: Assessing the FX Intervention Zone and Market Conditions

Market Expectations For ECB To Hike Interest Rates Grow (EUR/USD), Sunak’s Move To Stimulate The UK Economy Offers GBP Support(EUR/GBP), Weaker USD boosts AUD (AUD/USD), USD/JPY)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 27.05.2022 15:51
Summary: Euro strengthening against the USD as market expectations for rising interest rates grow. GBP strengthened on Friday. Too soon to assume bearish USD sentiment. Read next: FTSE 100 Index Rises Thanks To Shell and BP Stocks, British Pound (GBP) Weakens After Thursday Morning Strengthen  ECB interest rate expectations offer EUR support The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The Euro has been strengthening recently due to growing expectations of the European Central Bank rising the interest rates. The market is now anticipating a 100bp hike in the rates starting in July. At this point in time it is difficult to assume that the US Dollar will remain weak. The market has seen expectations of Fed interest rate hikes decrease, however, the increasing inflation seems to be keeping the Fed on track whilst tensions in China and between Russia and the Ukraine continue. EUR/USD Price Chart Sunak’s giveaway offers support to GBP The market is reflecting mixed market sentiment for this currency pair. On Thursday Rishi Sunak announced that the UK government would be giving GBP15 billion to UK households in an attempt to boost consumer attitudes. On Friday the Pound Sterling strengthened against the euro as the move offered GBP support, in addition UK consumers are instilled with more confidence in spending. In addition, the windfall tax that was implemented against oil companies has also offered GBP support. EUR/GBP Price Chart AUD is boosted by weaker USD Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bullish signals. Investor confidence in the Australian Dollar comes from a combination of a recovery in risk assets and weaker US Dollar in the wake of a Fed member hinting that there could be a pause in tightening monetary policy in September. AUD/USD Price Chart JPY underperforms The market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bullish signals. Both the US Dollar and Japanese Yen were market underperformers during the Asian session. The US Dollar is, however, outperforming the Yen. USD/JPY Price Chart Read next: FOMC Meeting Minutes Offer Support To The US Dollar (EUR/USD), Improved Market Attitude Favoured The GBP On Thursday (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD), Market Awaits RBA Monetary Policy  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Fed's Bowman Highlights Potential for More Rate Hikes; German Industrial Production Dips to 6-Month Low

Strong Investor Sentiment Toward The Euro Continues (EUR/USD), EUR/GBP Currency Pair, As China Ease Lockdowns The AUD Outlook Seems Positive (GBP/AUD, AUD/USD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 30.05.2022 16:37
Summary: Expectations for the ECB to raise interest rates grow. GBP doing well in the wake of HM Treasury’s Thursday announcement of the stimulus package. As China eases lockdowns, the AUD strengthens. Read next (COST) (Retail Stores) Costco Stock Beats Market Expectations  Euro still gaining on the US Dollar Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bullish signals. The current combination of a strong Euro and a weak US Dollar is giving room for the Euro to bounce back to a level almost equal to that of 5 weeks ago. The market expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates have been growing over the past few weeks, whilst the expectations for the US Dollar have weakened as market price out some of the Feds hawkish decisions. EUR/USD Price Chart Market sentiment toward the Pound Sterling remains strong Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bearish signals. On Tuesday, Eurostat is expected to release their estimate for May inflation, which could have an impact on the Euro. The move made late last week by HM treasury to implement a stimulus package to struggling households has the markets favouring the Pound Sterling over the EURO. EUR/GBP Price Chart Australian Dollar benefitting from the opening Chinese economy The Australian Dollar is performing well against the Pound Sterling amidst China continuing with the phased re-opening of the economy in the wake of its most recent Covid-19 lockdowns. It is well known that what is good for the Chinese economy is normally good for the Australian Dollar. If the global economic outlook continues to improve (especially in China), the AUD could outperform. GBP/AUD Price Chart AUD/USD reflecting mixed market signals The market is reflecting mixed market sentiment signals. The Australian Dollar is strengthening as the Chinese economy outlook seems positive in conjunction with the weakening US Dollar, giving the AUD a chance to strengthen against the USD. AUD/USD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com
Economic Calendar For July 21st. EUR/USD And GBP/USD - Trading Ideas

EuroZone Inflation Exceeds Market Expectations (EUR/USD) (EUR/GBP), New Zealand Economy Will Benefit From China’s Lockdown Easing (GBP/NZD), GBP Bullish (GBP/USD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 31.05.2022 14:39
Summary: Euro Zone inflation rose to 8.1% in May. Both the BoE and the ECB are expected to tighten monetary policy. The easing of lockdowns will benefit not only China’s economy but economies that rely on China for trading. The GBP may continue its strengthening streak against the USD going into the third quarter of this year. Read next:Strong Investor Sentiment Toward The Euro Continues (EUR/USD), EUR/GBP Currency Pair, As China Ease Lockdowns The AUD Outlook Seems Positive (GBP/AUD, AUD/USD)  EUR/USD maintains bullish sentiment Market sentiment is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. Euro Zone inflation rose to 8.1% in May, this rate is around 0.4% higher than expectations, which reaffirms the European Central Banks (ECBs) case for tightening monetary policy in quarter 3. The risk of slower growth is a reality, which may favour the US Dollar going forward. Whether the current strength in the Euro against the USD is going to continue may depend on which economy slows faster, the ECBs interest rate hike and the war in the Ukraine. EUR/USD Price Chart EUR/GBP reflecting mixed market sentiment The market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting mixed signals. There have been concerns about the UK economic outlook which have grown in response to rising inflation, which can be mainly attributed to rising energy prices. The Bank of England (BoE) is still expected to continue raising interest rates. In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to tighten monetary policy which is instilling confidence in the Euro. EUR/GBP Price Chart NZD to benefit from China's strengthening economy The NZD benefitted of Monday in the wake of China’s easing of COVID-19 lockdowns, strengthening against the Pound Sterling. The easing of lockdowns will benefit not only China’s economy but economies that rely on China for trading, New Zealand's economy is one of those who will benefit. GBP/NZD Price Chart US Dollar taking hits on the forex markets The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. Seasonal factors may be able to aid the GBP continue to strengthen against the US Dollar. The recent macroeconomic data that has been released has been underwhelming for the market and therefore the US Dollar has taken a hit, in addition the market expectations of the Fed to slow or stop tightening monetary policy is also affecting the US Dollar negatively. The GBP may continue its strengthening streak against the USD going into the third quarter of this year. GBP/NZD Price Chart Read next: S&P 500 Sees Good Start To The Week, UK Economy Not Performing As Well As Its Major Economy Counter Parts  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
Britain's Rishi Sunak And EU's Ursula Von Der Leyen Will Meet Today To Finalize The Northern Ireland Drama

Russian Oil Embargo Decision Weighs on The Euro (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP), Australian GDP Data Released On Wednesday Exceeds Market Expectations (AUD/USD), Pound Sterling Takes Advantage Of The Weaker USD (GBP/USD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 01.06.2022 15:09
Summary: The Euro has lost slightly to the US Dollar on Wednesday. EUR/GBP reflecting bearish signals. AUD outperforms on Wednesday. Pound Sterling taking advantage of the weaker USD Expectations of a hawkish ECB remain Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting mixed signals. The Euro has lost slightly to the US Dollar on Wednesday in the wake of the European Union (EU) reaching a decision on the Russian oil embargo on Tuesday. The embargo has heightened investors' fears that there may be further downward growth in the eurozone. The EU PMI economic data released on Wednesday exceeded market expectations maintaining an expansionary stance. In addition, the expectation of a hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) turning hawkish in the third quarter of the year remains. EUR/USD Price Chart Investor sentiment towards the Euro has slipped The market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bearish signals. In the wake of the European Union reaching a decision regarding the Russian oil embargo, investor sentiment toward the euro has slipped. In conjunction, investor sentiment toward the pound sterling has strengthened. EUR/GBP Price Chart AUD is Wednesdays best performing currency Market sentiment is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The Australian Dollar may have outperformed the US Dollar on Wednesday, but future policies from both the central banks could impact this currency pair. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) GDP data released on Wednesday exceeded market expectations, making it Wednesdays best performing currency. AUD/USD Price Chart Pound Sterling taking advantage of the weaker USD Market sentiment is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The pound sterling has taken advantage of the weakening USD over the past couple weeks in the wake of recession concerns. GBP/USD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The Euro Opened Strong On Wednesday Against The US Dollar (EUR/USD), Euro Could Continue Gaining On The GBP (EUR/GBP), Australia’s Trade Balance Beats Market Expectations (AUD/USD), EUR/JPY

The Euro Opened Strong On Wednesday Against The US Dollar (EUR/USD), Euro Could Continue Gaining On The GBP (EUR/GBP), Australia’s Trade Balance Beats Market Expectations (AUD/USD), EUR/JPY

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 02.06.2022 18:31
Summary: The euro opened strong on Wednesday in the wake of U.S treasury yields surging. Inflation for the eurozone hit record levels in April. The Australian Dollar has been unmoved by an outstanding trade balance that beat market expectations. EUR/JPY Read next: EuroZone Inflation Exceeds Market Expectations (EUR/USD) (EUR/GBP), New Zealand Economy Will Benefit From China’s Lockdown Easing (GBP/NZD), GBP Bullish (GBP/USD)  Euro and US Dollar The market is reflecting mixed market signals for this currency pair. The euro opened strong on Wednesday in the wake of U.S treasury yields surging. The U.S economic data that has been released this week has been strong, which has given the market confidence around the hiking cycle. This sentiment comes in contrast to last week's sentiment of an overconfident Federal Reserve. The eurozone is under pressure in the wake of the Russian oil embargo with the possibility of Russia retaliating by potentially cutting off gas from the region, which may aggravate an already bad inflation situation and risk downside potential for the euro. EUR/USD Price Chart Eurozone inflation hit record highs The market is reflecting mixed market signals for this currency pair. Inflation for the eurozone hit record levels in April, this means that it may be more likely that the European Central Bank (ECB) may implement a 50 basis point rate hike before the year-end. If this were to go through, it could underscore the Euro’s already steady rebound against the US Dollar and the Pound Sterling. EUR/GBP Price Chart Australian Dollar benefitting from a trade balance that beat expectations The market is reflecting bullish market signals for this currency pair. The Australian Dollar has been unmoved by an outstanding trade balance that beat market expectations. In addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published their commodity price index (CPI) that accounts for the composition of Australian commodity exports yesterday. AUD/USD Price Chart The Japanese Yen weakened The market is reflecting mixed market signals for this currency pair. The Japanese data revealed a jobless rate that exceeded market expectations, but retail sales stayed at 0.8% for April. The mood was then turned bad with a miss in industrial production. It was anticipated at -0.2% but came in at -1.3% for the month of April. The Japanese Yen weakened on this news as well as the higher oil price taking its toll on the energy importing economy. EUR/JPY Price Chart   Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
Market Trends and Currency Positioning: USD Net Short Position, Euro and Pound Analysis - 22.08.2023

Saudi Arabia Indicates Plans To Increase Their Oil Output (EUR/USD), ECB Plans To Start Tightening Monetary Policy Still Set For July (EUR/GBP), (USD/JPY, USD/CHF)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 03.06.2022 13:37
Summary: OPECs plans to increase their oil output favours the Euro. ECBs window for tightening monetary policy seems to be narrowing. The market is reflecting mixed sentiment for the USD/CHF currency pair. Read next: The Euro Opened Strong On Wednesday Against The US Dollar (EUR/USD), Euro Could Continue Gaining On The GBP (EUR/GBP), Australia’s Trade Balance Beats Market Expectations (AUD/USD),   German PMI declined for the 3rd month in a row The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The US Dollar weakened overnight in the wake of data that showed US payroll rose less than expected in May. The European Union finalised the ban on Russian seaborne oil, with the hope of reaching a 90% decline in imports by the end of 2022. Oil prices rose in the wake of this news, however OPEC indicated its plans to compensate their western allies for the oil lost through the embargo. In addition, the German PMI fell for the third consecutive month. EUR/USD Price Chart Post-lockdown growth is slowing in even the largest EU economy. The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. With German PMI declining for the third consecutive month, rising stagflation and a pessimistic economic outlook within the European Union. Hence, the European Central Banks (ECB) window for tightening monetary policy seems to be narrowing. Originally plans for increasing rates were to begin in the third quarter of this year, however, given the current circumstances, it could be justified to start earlier than originally planned. Although it may be justified, it is unlikely given the ECB president has tried to set out the EU monetary policy plan from the start, despite increased pressure. EUR/GBP Price Chart USD/CHF Reflecting mixed signals The market is reflecting mixed sentiment for this currency pair. The expectation for the month of June for this currency pair is bearish, the US Dollar may be weakening, however, this forecast is based on the trends of the past. With the Swiss National Bank (SNB) expected to turn hawkish and the fears of the US economy heading into a recession, perhaps the reality will be different from the forecast. USD/CHF Price Chart USD/JPY Pair As the US Dollar weakens, investors are turning to the Japanese Yen safe-haven asset. The market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bearish signals. USD/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com
Crucial Upcoming PMI Data and High-Stake Meetings Shape China's Economic Landscape

Euro Enters The Week Strong As The Market Awaits ECB Announcements Due Later This Week (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF), Focus On The RBA Announcement On Tuesday (GBP/AUD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 06.06.2022 15:22
Summary: ECB interest rate decision due to occur later this week. Confidence vote being held for Boris Johnsson later on Monday. Investor confidence could be returning to the markets. On Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australian (RBA) is due to announce its decision regarding tightening of monetary policy. Read next: Altcoins: Decentraland (MANA), What Is It? A Deeper Look Into The Decentraland Platform  EUR strong entering the week On Monday market sentiment for this currency pair turned bearish. The Euro opened stronger on Monday as the market awaits the European Central Banks (ECB) interest rate decision, which is due to occur later this week. If the European Central Bank shows any signs of dovish intentions, the effects could be heavy on the Euro's downside, however, if a hawkish attitude is shown (which seems to be more likely), the upside effect on the euro may be minimal as the expected hike is already priced into the market. U.S CPI data is expected to close off this week, if there is another undershoot regarding the CPI data, it will just confirm that inflation has reached its peak and add to dovish pressure. EUR/USD Price Chart Both Euro and Pound sterling entered the week strong The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. As the market awaits the European Central Bank's (ECB) announcement regarding the decision for interest rates in July and September, the Euro entered the week strong. In addition, the pound sterling also entered the week strong despite a confidence vote being held this evening to determine Prime Minister Boris Johnssons future as leader. The pound sterling holding strength, shows its resilience to political tensions. EUR/GBP Price Chart EUR/CHF bullish The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. Amidst the expected announcements from the European Central Bank this week, the Euro has entered the week strong, even against the safe-haven Swiss Franc. During times of economic stress, investors normally turn to safe-haven assets, however investor confidence seems to be returning to the markets. EUR/CHF Price Chart RBA due to make an announcement The Australian Dollar entered its third week of gains this week in the wake of China’s easing of Covid-19 lockdowns and stronger than expected GDP data. However, on Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australian (RBA) is due to announce its decision regarding tightening of monetary policy. The price of the GBP/AUD currency pair is sensitive to the price changes of the GBP/USD currency pair. GBP/AUD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The Japanese Yen Retreats as USD/JPY Gains Momentum

ECB On Track To Hike Interest Rates In July (EUR/USD), (EUR/GBP), RBA Hikes Interest Rates (AUD/USD), EUR/CHF

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 07.06.2022 15:19
Summary: Inflation reaches its highest level since the formation of the euro single currency. The pound sterling lost value to the Euro, US Dollar and other major currencies. RBA hikes interest rates. Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold Should Be Bullish, NGAS Reaches Highest Price Since August 2008, Cotton Crop Planting Is Ahead Of Schedule  ECB putting themselves under pressure The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The European Central Bank (ECB) has repeated the message of ending their asset purchasing early in July, and will follow that with a 25 basis point hike in interest rates in the ECB meeting in July. By reiterating that they will stick to their timeline, the ECB has allowed themselves little flexibility to turn hawkish through tightening of monetary policy before July, despite inflation reaching its highest level since the euro was formed. The market awaits the ECB’s release of macroeconomic projections which will occur on Thursday. EUR/USD Price Chart Pound Sterling falls on Thursday The market is reflecting bullish sentiment for this currency pair. On Monday U.K Prime Minister Boris Johnsson won the vote of no confidence, inlight of this, the pound sterling lost value to the Euro, US Dollar and other major currencies. The pound sterling rallied on Monday in the wake of the news of Borris Johnssons vote of no confidence, some analysts drew the conclusion that the gain in the pound was linked to the prospects of a new leader whilst others said the outcome would not affect the market. EUR/GBP Price Chart AUD gains in the wake of RBA hikes The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) showed the market that they are committed to the fight against inflation and turned hawkish by hiking interest rates by 0.5%. However, the gains felt in the wake of this decision for the AUD were short lived. AUD/USD Price Chart EUR/CHF The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. As risks for the Euro rise amidst rising inflation and the interest rate hikes from European Central Bank likely to only begin in July, the Euro has faced some mixed sentiment on Tuesday, making the safe-haven Swiss Franc more desirable. EUR/CHF Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Serious liquidity crisis? According to Franklin Templeton, a massive, but unlikely deposit flight from Credit Suisse would have to happen

ECB Interest Rate Announcement Due Tomorrow Offers Euro Support (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP), JPY Facing Negative Outlook (USD/JPY), Potential For A Hawkish SNB Offers CHF Support (USD/CHF)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 08.06.2022 16:22
Summary: Markets are becoming more optimistic around hopes of a more hawkish European Central Bank (ECB). Firmer oil prices adding to downward pressure on JPY. Strong market expectations of a more hawkish Swiss National Bank (SNB). Read next: DOW 30 Turbulent In The Wake Of Targets (TGT) Profit Warning, Japanese Yen Suffering From BoJ Monetary Easing  Euro holds steady The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The markets are becoming more optimistic around hopes of a more hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) tomorrow after adding a couple more basis points to the yearly forecasts. There has been talk of a 50bps hike in July and rumors of a possible hike on Thursday, it is likely that the market could see a change in ECB tone which has allowed the Euro to remain resilient against the US Dollar. On Wednesday, the market opened with strong economic Q1 data for the eurozone. The euro did not react instantly to the release of this data, likely due to its delay. EUR/USD Price Chart Anticipation of ECBs announcement offers Euro support The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The Euro has gained against the pound sterling ahead of the market awaiting the European Central Banks (ECB) interest rate announcement, which is due tomorrow. Earlier in the trading week the pound sterling rallied in response to the news of Boris Johnssons vote of no confidence. If the ECB announces an interest rate hike in July, the pound sterling currency could be under pressure against the Euro. EUR/GBP Price Chart Negative outlook for Japanese Yen is likely to continue The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. In addition to the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continuing its monetary easing, firmer oil prices have added to the downward pressure on the Japanese Yen and both of these factors will continue to add to the negative outlook for the safe-haven currency. USD/JPY Price Chart CHF holding its position in the market The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The Swiss Franc has recovered against the US Dollar in comparison to the lows experienced in mid-May when the US Dollar was at its strongest, the recovery comes in the wake of market expectations of a more hawkish Swiss National Bank (SNB). the expectations come from indications from policy makers that the SNB will increase its interest rates for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis. USD/CHF Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
ECB press conference brings more fog than clarity

Strong Expectations For ECB To Hike Interest Rates Is Offering The Euro Support (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP), Hawkish RBA is Offering AUD Support (AUD/JPY), US Dollar Benefitted From AUD Risk Sensitivity (AUD/USD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 09.06.2022 12:26
Summary: ECB announcement due on Thursday, analysts expect hawkish moves. Dovish BoJ causing the safe-haven asset to weaken. The market is reflecting bearish signals for the AUD/USD currency pair. Read next: Alibaba (BABA) Amongst US Listed Chinese Stocks That Have Seen Major Gains  ECB expected hawkish attitude supporting EUR The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The highlight of the Thursday trading day for the foreign exchange markets is the European Central Banks (ECB) announcement. Over the past few weeks, members of the ECB have been stressing the need for interest rate hikes in July with the bank's president, Christine Lagarde saying the July hioke would likely be followed by a September hike. The strong expectations are offering the Euro support against the US Dollar. EUR/USD Price Chart Euro strengthens against the GBP The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The Euro could strengthen further against the pound sterling if the European Central Bank (ECB) ends up turning hawkish as analysts expect. Over the past few weeks, members of the ECB have been stressing the need for interest rate hikes in July with the bank's president, Christine Lagarde saying the July hioke would likely be followed by a September hike. EUR/GBP Price Chart RBA hawkish vs BoJ dovish The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The AUD/JPY currency pair is one of the more volatile currency pairs. The Australian Dollar has gained on the safe-haven Japanese Yen over the past week due to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) turning hawkish and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) choosing to continue with monetary easing. AUD/JPY Price Chart US Dollar benefitted from AUD risk sensitivity The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. Inflation worries resurfaced on Wall Street, which drove US stocks lower, this sentiment may have a domino effect on the Asia-Pacific markets. The fall in sentiment weighted on the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar, thus benefiting the US Dollar in this currency pair. AUD/USD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Market Trends and Currency Positioning: USD Net Short Position, Euro and Pound Analysis - 22.08.2023

US CPI Data Due On Friday Offers USD Support (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF), Pound Sterling Rallies Against Euro Due To The ECB Press Conference Ambiguity (EUR/GBP), USD/GBP

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 10.06.2022 12:55
Summary: The ECB turned hawkish and announced its plans to increase all interest rates in July by 0.25%. The ECB press conference started, the path forward became ambiguous again. Markets awaiting US CPI data offer support to the US Dollar. US Dollar strengthening ahead of US CPI data release, The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. On Thursday the European Central Bank (ECB) turned hawkish and announced its plans to increase all interest rates in July by 0.25% and left open possibility for further hikes in September. However, the ECB press conference made clear to the market that there are circumstances in play that could struggle to keep up with the recently escalating market expectations, which could potentially explain the weakening of the Euro. The US CPI data for May is on schedule to be released during the trading day on Friday, which is offering support for the US Dollar. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP rallies in response to ECB ambiguity The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The Euro tumbled on Thursday when the European Central Bank's (ECB) president Christine Lagarde sent the market mixed messages regarding the future policies. The written statement signaled a 0.25% increase in all interest rates in July, however, once the press conference started, the path forward became more ambiguous again, causing the Euro to lose against the Pound sterling and the US Dollar. EUR/GBP Price Chart US CPI data offers USD support. The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The US Dollar is being supported by strong market expectations for US CPI data. In addition the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is continuing its dovish approach through quantitative easing, causing the safe-haven asset to weaken across the board. USD/JPY Price Chart USD/CHF The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The US Dollar is being supported by strong market expectations for US CPI data, despite prospects of the Swiss National Bank turning hawkish. USD/CHF Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, pounsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
Rising U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Have Helped The USD/JPY Bulls

US CPI Inflation Acceleration Likely To See Hawkish Fed Retaliation (EUR/USD), On Thursday The Market Expects The BoE Monetary Policy Decision (EUR/GBP)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 13.06.2022 14:42
Summary: High US CPI inflation is likely to cause the Fed to retaliate, offering USD support. The market is reflecting mixed market signals for the EUR/GBP currency pair. Sharp decline in the value of the JPY sparks BoJ response. Read next: US CPI Data Due On Friday Offers USD Support (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF), Pound Sterling Rallies Against Euro Due To The ECB Press Conference Ambiguity (EUR/GBP)  EUR/USD Bearish as the market expects a hawkish Fed The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate fell heavily during last week's trading week in the wake of a toxic combination of international and domestic headwinds and could likely remain under pressure in the coming days if the Fed and US bond yields continue to wear down global investor sentiment. The high US CPI inflation rate indicates that inflation is showing no signs of peaking, the Federal reserve is likely to continue on its hawkish path of tightening monetary policy, which is offering the USD support. EUR/USD Price Chart Hawkish BoE could offer GBP support The market is reflecting mixed market signals for this currency pair. On Thursday the Bank of England (BoE) is due to make a monetary policy decision, if the Bank adopts a more hawkish tone, the pound sterling could strengthen against the EUR. However, economists don't expect a large increase in interest rates and the BoE has been pushing back from hawkish market expectations for its interest rate to reach either 2% or more by year end. EUR/GBP Price Chart BoJ may be ready to step in to save the JPY The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. On Friday the Bank of Japan (BoJ) made a joint government statement which echoed the concerns over the yen’s sharp decline, which indicated that the BoJ may be ready to respond appropriately. In his latest address to parliament, Kuroda stated, "The yen's recent sharp declines are negative for Japan's economy and therefore undesirable, as they make it hard for companies to set business plans". USD/JPY Price Chart AUD/JPY currency pair The market is reflecting bullish market sentiment for this currency pair. The sharp weakening of the Japanese Yen has caused the BoJ to hint plans of stepping in to save the safe-haven currency. AUD/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com  
Britain's Rishi Sunak And EU's Ursula Von Der Leyen Will Meet Today To Finalize The Northern Ireland Drama

The Market Has Strong Expectations Of An Even More Hawkish Fed (EUR/USD, USD/CHF), Pound Sterling Tumbled Amidst Investor Sell-off Sentiment (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 14.06.2022 12:19
Summary US Dollar supported by prospects of a hawkish Fed. The Pound sterling remains vulnerable to further losses against the Euro. Read next: US CPI Inflation Acceleration Likely To See Hawkish Fed Retaliation (EUR/USD), On Thursday The Market Expects The BoE Monetary Policy Decision (EUR/GBP)  Expectations of a hawkish Fed is driving the dollar up. The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. As expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue on its hawkish path, and raise interest rates even higher at the next FOMC heighten, the US Dollar is strengthening. A hawkish move from the Fed will likely drive the US Dollar higher as it will gain a yield advantage over its G10 peers. Uncertainty around driving the US economy into a recession also brings about the appeal for the US Dollars liquidity. EUR/USD Price Chart Pound Sterling tumbles in the wake of investor sell-off sentiment The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The Pound sterling remains vulnerable to further losses against the Euro following the losses experienced in the last 24 hours which was driven by the strong risk-off sentiment that has been seen by the global markets, which is also linked to the strong expectations for larger interest rate hikes at the US Federal Reserve. EUR/GBP Price Chart US Dollar/Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Bullish The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. With expectations for the US Federal Reserve to further tighten monetary policy, the US Dollar is strengthening against most of its counterparts, including the Swiss Franc. USD/CHF Price Chart UK employment data released UK jobs data was released early on Tuesday, which reflected an employment change for March beating estimates whilst the employment statistic missed expectations. The initial reaction to this data saw the pound sterling weaken against the US Dollar as the ease in the labor market could be a signal towards the start of an economic shift. GBP/USD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Britain's Rishi Sunak And EU's Ursula Von Der Leyen Will Meet Today To Finalize The Northern Ireland Drama

ECB’s Christine Lagarde Eased Fears (EUR/USD, EUR/CHF), Expectations Of A More Hawkish BoE Strengthen (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.06.2022 15:46
Summary: President Joe Biden announced he is considering a gas tax holiday. Markets expect a more hawkish BoE, thus offering the pound sterling support. CHF is supported by the SNB's hawkish attitude. Read next: BoE’s Dr Catherine L Mann Speaks  EUR/USD currency pair The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. US President Joe Biden has announced that he may be considering imposing a gas tax holiday in an attempt to ease inflationary pressure on the US consumer. This looser fiscal policy move could help the Monetary policy tightening moves by the Federal Reserve by adding more flexibility and optionality in its fight against inflation. Theoretically speaking, looser fiscal policy encourages more foreign investment, and thus a higher US Dollar demand. This mixed with a hawkish Federal Reserve could give an extra boost to the US Dollar if the tax cut is approved. During her speech yesterday, European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde managed to ease fears via her statement around the ECB’s proactive fight against fragmentation, thereby offering the Euro support. EUR/USD Price Chart BoE expected to accelerate their interest rate hiking path The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank say they expect the Bank of England (BoE) to accelerate the rate in which they will raise interest rates. The BoE indicated they would be more inclined to take a more stern stance on inflation, even at the expense of growth. Therefore, giving the markets expectation of a more hawkish BoE, and offering the pound sterling support. EUR/GBP Price Chart SNB’s move to raise interest rates offers CHF support The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. Despite European Central Bank’s (ECB) Christine Lagarde easing fears around fragmentation, the Swiss Franc is still showing strength against the Euro. Last week the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised the markets with a 50 basis point rate hike in its interest rates, which offered the safe-haven currency support. The Swiss Franc was the best performing currency last week. EUR/CHF Price Chart Looming recessions and slowing economies The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The pound sterling was edging higher during early trading on Tuesday despite negatives hanging over the GBP. On Wednesday, the UK is expected to release headline inflation data, which is expected to come in at 9.1%, which may even come in higher. In addition, the fears of a slowing UK economy and a global recession are only 2 of the factors that are weighing on this currency pair and on many other foreign exchange pairs. GBP/USD Price Chart Sources: dailyfx.com, finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The Loonie Pair (USD/CAD) Takes Clues From The Downbeat Oil Prices

Fears Of Recession Loom (EUR/USD), UK CPI Inflation Data 9.1% For May (EUR/GBP), Surprisingly Strong Canadian Inflation Data (USD/CAD), EUR/JPY

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 22.06.2022 16:27
Summary: UK CPI inflation data came in at 9.1% for May. BoJ remaining dovish. Fears of a recession loom. Read next: ECB’s Christine Lagarde Eased Fears (EUR/USD, EUR/CHF), Expectations Of A More Hawkish BoE Strengthen (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD)  ECB could benefit from QEQT combination The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The Euro currency could benefit if the European Central Bank (ECB) uses the European continent's fragmented economic landscape to its advantage by combining both quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT) to normalise monetary policy by minimising upset. The Euro has been recovering against the US Dollar this week. Concerns over a recession in the US have grown as the Fed continue on their hawkish path of fighting inflation. EUR/USD Price Chart UK CPI inflation data met market expectations The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The pound sterling weakened against the Euro in the direct wake of the release of UK inflation data which mostly came in as expected, however, some parts of the report came in softer than was expected and could prove supportive of the British pound currency. UK CPI inflation data came in year-on-year in May at 9.1% which beat April's 9.0% and was in-line with the market expectations. EUR/GBP Price Chart USD/CAD The market is slowing mixed market signals for this currency pair. Canadian inflation data came in surprisingly strong for the month of May, which could likely drive investor expectations of a more hawkish Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate hiking policies going forward, thus likely supporting the Canadian Dollar. USD/CAD Price Chart BoJ Continues to opt out of monetary policy tightening The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. As the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues their monetary easing and chooses to stay away from tightening monetary policy, the Euro and other currencies seem to be gaining on the safe-haven asset. EUR/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
Credit Suisse case: Western Assets expects Swiss authorities to act if sentiment doesn't improve

Data Showed A Slowing Eurozone Economy (EUR/USD, EUR/CHF), UK PMI Data Came In Stronger Than Expected (EUR/GBP), NZD Was The Top Performing Currency On Thursday (GBP/NZD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 23.06.2022 15:44
Summary: Eurozone data showed a slowing European economy for June. Pound sterling offered support from strong UK PMI data. NZD was Thursday's top performing currency. Read next: Fears Of Recession Loom (EUR/USD), UK CPI Inflation Data 9.1% For May (EUR/GBP), Surprisingly Strong Canadian Inflation Data (USD/CAD), EUR/JPY  Euro weakened in the wake of slowing economy data The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The Euro fell sharply on Thursday in the wake of data that showed that the Eurozone economy had slowed during June and undermined the expectations for a series of rapid interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank (ECB) that are due to start in July. The fall in the Euro helped reinforce a bid for the US Dollar against all major pairs as investors continue to bet on a global economic slowdown. ` EUR/USD Price Chart UK PMI data beat market expectations The market is reflecting mixed market sentiment for this currency pair. The UK economy continued to grow during June as UK PMI data came in stronger than the market expected. At the same time UK wage pressures remained strong at firms that were increasingly willing to pass on price increases to customers, which is likely to continue to place pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to raise interest rates. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP/NZD upside risk The New Zealand Dollar was one of the top performing major currencies on Thursday when the NZD/USD pair seemed to be drawing dip-buyers from the market. The Pound to NZD has been contained over the past month, but with the NZD/USD pair testing major support levels, it is possible that the breakout risk for the GBP/NZD is on the upside. GBP/NZD Price Chart EUR/CHF The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. As the Swiss Franc continues to strengthen in the wake of the Swiss National Banks (SNB) interest rate hike, the Euro is weakening due to unfavourable economic data. EUR/CHF Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Sustainability-Linked Products: Navigating Growth and Challenges for the Future

Concerns Of A Global Recession Continue To Weigh On Markets - Take A Look At The EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/AUD And EUR/JPY Currency Pairs

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 24.06.2022 13:32
Summary: ECB expected to increase rates at a faster pace. CBA thinks the AUD is at risk of trading at its lowest levels against the GBP since the start of the pandemic.\\ Read next: Data Showed A Slowing Eurozone Economy (EUR/USD, EUR/CHF), UK PMI Data Came In Stronger Than Expected (EUR/GBP), NZD Was The Top Performing Currency On Thursday (GBP/NZD)  EUR/USD currency pair The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. At this point, the market expects to see a continuing hawkish Federal Reserve, pushing both interest rates and long-term rates up even further, thus, the USD is likely to remain strong for most of the remainder of 2022. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates further and at a faster pace, the ECB has already communicated hikes in both July and September, as it tries to contain the Eurozone inflation narrative. As concerns around a global recession tighten, the aggressive 75 basis point rate hike made by the Fed has caused investors to be more cautious across the board. EUR/USD Price Chart Eurozone and UK economy slowing. The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. UK retail sales declined in May as consumers felt the pain of rising prices which in turn did not allow the pound sterling a boost heading into the weekend. In addition the retail data from the UK came after the data revealved by France and Germany also missed market expectations. The markets are expecting economic slowdown in both the UK and Eurozone economies. EUR/GBP Price Chart CBA outlook on AUD According to the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), the Australian Dollar is at risk of trading at its lowest levels against the British pound since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. The CBA sees the AUD as being amongst the most vulnerable currencies to the recent souring of the global economic outlook. GBP/AUD Price Chart EUR/JPY The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. As the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to weaken in the wake of a dovish Bank of Japan (BoJ), the Euro is also experiencing troubles in the wake of disappointing economic data released from France and Germany, which indicates a slowing of the Eurozone economy. EUR/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The Upside Of The EUR/USD Pair Remains Limited

EUR/USD Currency Pair Bullish, KPMG Cuts Growth Forecast For Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD), RBC Capital Markets Recommend Selling GBP/SEK

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 27.06.2022 13:38
Summary: RBC are so confident in this they recommended selling the GBP/SEK currency pair. Euro’s concerns lie in the rising energy prices and possible supply chain disruptions. KPMG cut UK economic growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023. Recession concerns are weighing on the US dollar. Read next: Concerns Of A Global Recession Continue To Weigh On Markets - Take A Look At The EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/AUD And EUR/JPY Currency Pairs  EUR and USD facing economic concerns The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell reiterated in congress that it will be tough for the Fed to bring inflation down without harming the economy or disrupting the labour market, this began a downward revision to market expectations for US interest rates. The biggest concern for the Euro lies in the economic hit in the wake of rising energy prices and possible supply disruptions. Hence, the European Central Bank (ECB) views this as a medium-term source of disinflation, which is yet another reason to take a slower, more cautious approach to normalising monetary policy that has been priced in over the past months. EUR/USD Price Chart EUR/GBP currency pair The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. KPMG cut UK economic growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023, the cut comes from the expectation of a “mild” recession in the UK economy in 2023, in the wake of surging commodity prices and China's Covid outbreak. News of the downgrade in expectations is driving the Euro to strengthen against the pound sterling. EUR/GBP Price Chart Strong Sell recommendations for the GBP/SEK RBC Capital Markets’ foreign exchange strategists are warning that the pound is likely to suffer losses in the near-term against the Swedish Krona. They are so confident in this they recommended selling the GBP/SEK currency pair. The GBP is expected to take a hit at the end of the Month due to the release of important economic data. GBP/SEK Price Chart US recession concerns weighing on the US Dollar The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. During last week's trading week, the narrative changed from inflation concerns to recession concerns which are weighing on the US Dollar via lower treasury yields. The UK PM Borris Johnson is looking to hold onto his PM status and run for a 3rd term. GBP/USD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
ECB press conference brings more fog than clarity

US Dollar Softening Due To Recession Fears (EUR/USD), Is A 50bps Interest Rate Hike Due To Kick Off The ECB Interest Rate Hiking Cycle ? (EUR/GBP), AUD Recovering As China Reopens Their Economy

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 28.06.2022 14:01
Summary: The Fed remains fixated on crushing inflation. Martins Kazaks announced that it was worth looking at a 50 basis point hike. The AUD is benefitting from the reopening of the Chinese economy. Read next: EUR/USD Currency Pair Bullish, KPMG Cuts Growth Forecast For Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD), RBC Capital Markets Recommend Selling GBP/SEK  ECB Forum Starts on Tuesday The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The US Dollar softens in the wake of concerns around a looming recession that comes in the wake of a slowing economy on rising interest rates. Despite these concerns the Federal Reserve bank has made it clear that their focus is on containing surging inflation. The Euro has held onto Monday gains, the European Central Bank (ECB) will get under way today. EUR/USD Price Chart ECB has a busy week for interest rate policy The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. It is looking likely that the European Central Bank (ECB) is due to start its interest rate hiking cycle with a 50 basis point hike. After Martins Kazaks announced that it was worth looking at a 50 basis point hike the Euro strengthened against both the pound sterling and the US Dollar. This trading week is a busy one for the ECB interest rate policy as central bankers descend on Sintra, Portugal for the ECBs annual central banking get-together. EUR/GBP Price Chart AUD/JPY currency pair The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. As China comes out of its lockdowns, thus, boosting market expectations of a recovery in the second largest economy in the world and Australia’s largest export market. The Australian Dollar has strengthened in the wake of the news. Due to equities holding onto recent gains and the Japanese Yen’s safe-haven status, the currency is underperforming. AUD/JPY Price Chart GBP/JPY currency pair The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The GBP/JPY currency pair is drifting higher as we near to the month end. It is natural for the Japanese Yen to underperform during this time as equities are holding onto their gains due to its safe-haven status. GBP/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
ECB's Knot: July Rate Hike Necessary, Beyond July Uncertain; Canadian CPI Supports Rates on Hold; Global Crypto Market at $1.2 Trillion; Oil Market Tightens with Russian Shipments Drop and China's Support Measures

A Global Economic Slowdown Is Causing Risk-Off Sentiment, The US Dollar Remains Strong and AUD Expected To Be Currency Most Affected (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/AUD, AUD/JPY)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 04.07.2022 16:40
Summary: During the trading week last week the EUR/USD currency pairs price fell back to near five-year lows. It is expected that the global economic slowdown will affect the Australian Dollar more than the Pound Sterling. Investors looking out for ECB announcements and EU retail data this week. AUD/JPY bearish. Read next: Concerns Over Tight Supplies Is Driving Brent Crude Oil Prices Up, Silver Prices Falling, Favourable Weather, Weak Demand & Tight Supplies - Factors Driving Corn Prices  Euro’s left at the mercy of market sentiment The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. During the trading week last week the EUR/USD currency pairs price fell back to near five-year lows and may be at risk of remaining under pressure to those levels in the coming days unless the U.S currency falters further in the wake of its stumble on Friday. The Euro is under pressure from the strong US Dollar and neither currencies benefitted last week despite central banks claiming their determination to fight inflation. There was not much activity over the weekend regarding events that could move the market, thus, the global market including the Euro has been left at the mercy of market sentiment. EUR/USD Price Chart EUR/GBP currency pair The market is reflecting mixed sentiment for this currency pair. Investors will be watching the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy announcements this week as well as the EU retail sales data that is due to be released. The Euro got no support when ECB president Christine Lagarde spoke last week and emphasised the importance of optionality in relation to the size and timing of interest rate changes after the 0.25% uplift in July that was pre-announced last month. EUR/GBP Price Chart AUD expected to be more affected by the economic slowdown than the GBP The Australian Dollar is one of the biggest losers amongst the major currency pairs over the past month and analysts predict this week's Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy update mixed with souring global investor sentiment should keep the currency under pressure from the pound sterling. In addition, it is expected that the global economic slowdown will affect the Australian Dollar more than the Pound Sterling. GBP/AUD Price Chart AUD/JPY currency pair The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. It is expected by the market that the global economic slowdown will affect the Australian Dollar. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is currently defiantly maintaining yield curve control despite speculators attacks that are betting that the BoJ will be unable to hold yields down if prices continue to rise. AUD/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
The Collapse Of The Silicon Valley Bank Weakened The Dollar And USD/JPY But Supported EUR/USD, AUD/USD, And GBP/USD

US Dollar Hitting 19-year Highs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD), Russia Cuts Off Gas Taps (EUR/GBP), GBP/AUD Currency Pair & RBA Policy Decision

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 05.07.2022 17:21
Summary: The US Dollar is hitting 19 year highs on Tuesday. Russia turns gas taps off Europe, plunging the Euro. UK strikes over pay began on Tuesday. RBA policy decisions lacked hawkish rhetoric. Read next: A Global Economic Slowdown Is Causing Risk-Off Sentiment, The US Dollar Remains Strong and AUD Expected To Be Currency Most Affected (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/AUD  US Dollar Continues on its strengthening path The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The US Dollar is hitting 19 year highs on Tuesday, this has been helped by a plunging EUR/USD currency pair, which has set its own 19-year low. Whilst there has been no particular event that has sparked the plunging of the Euro, the combination of a multiple of things has driven its downfall. Hence, the events include Russian gas deliveries for June which was 40% shorter than expected, this has caused European gas prices to remain elevated. In addition, Nord stream is set to close completely for annual maintenance, where it shuts down completely during July 11-21st, the risk, however, is that the pipeline may not come back online. In addition European Central Bank (ECB) representative Nagel did little to help the Euro as he cautioned against using monetary policy to limit risk premia of indebted states, he also stated that an Anti-Fragmentation tool could only be used during exceptional circumstances. Although Bundesbank’s Nagel is part of the minority, this does raise the risk of a watered-down Anti-Frag tool, which has ultimately disappointed the market expectations. EUR/USD Price Chart Russia turns the gas taps off to a pipeline. The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The Euro is on its backfoot against the pound sterling in the wake of surging Eurozone energy prices after Russia cut off the taps to a key pipeline. The Euro has been aggressively sold during the Tuesday trading day, starting from 8am London time. This is putting pressure on the Euro. EUR/GBP Price Chart Strikes in the UK began on Tuesday The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. Strikes in the UK over salaries began on Tuesday and could cut the country's gas output by almost a quarter and could exacerbate supply shortages in the wake of the war in the Ukraine. There is a possibility that around 15% of Norway's oil output could also be cut by Saturday, this is according to a Reuters calculation and is based on the plans of union members to gradually escalate their action over the coming days. Amidst these facts, the US Dollar remains strong. GBP/USD Price Chart GBP/AUD The pound sterling to Australian Dollar currency pair has been volatile, but may still struggle to rise if the US Dollar doesn't hold onto its Tuesday highs in the coming days. The AUD tumbled before most of its currency counterparts on Tuesday in the wake of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) July policy decision, which saw the cash rate lifted by 0.5% for a second time, taking it up to 1.35% for the time being. Despite this move, the decision was widely expected by the markets, however, the statement that came with the policy decision indicated to the markets that the hawkish rhetoric from the RBA was lacking. GBP/AUD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
The US Dollar (USD) Index May Have Created A Potential Resistance

Bearish Outlook For The EUR/USD Currency Pair, Euro & GBP Are Only Two Currencies Dominated By The US Dollar’s Strength (EUR/GBP, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 06.07.2022 15:06
Summary: G20 summit and Fed meeting minutes. Both the Euro and the GBP have remained under pressure from the incredibly strong US Dollar. Cost-of-living-squeeze in Japan. Read next: US Dollar Hitting 19-year Highs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD), Russia Cuts Off Gas Taps (EUR/GBP), GBP/AUD Currency Pair & RBA Policy Decision  USD Could strengthen further in the coming days The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The market outlook for the US Dollar seems bullish going forward into the coming days as the Federal reserve minutes are released and the G20 summit. If the Fed minutes reveal a hawkish attitude that surpasses market expectations, the US Dollar could be pushed even higher and could increase the greenback’s rising yield advantage against G10 and emerging market counterparts. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP & Euro Under pressure The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. Both the Euro and the GBP have remained under pressure from the incredibly strong US Dollar, the negatives for the Euro are well-known across the markets and could likely be exacerbated by two events in July. For the pound sterling, politics is at the forefront of talking in the media, however, from a traders perspective, the pound has been optimistic in terms of being affected by the current difficult situation. It seems that this is the beginning of the end for Prime Minister Boris Johnson, although the current backdrop that plagues the Pound remains unaltered. This has been evidenced by this morning’s soft construction PMI data, while comments made by BoE Chief Economist Pill were not exactly in favour of a larger hike in the Bank rate. EUR/GBP Price Chart USD dominating JPY The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. Inflation is currently showing signs of becoming more politically based in Japan in the wake of the continuing cost-of-living squeeze. Whilst the market awaits FOMC meeting minutes which could give the US Dollar more support, the rising cost of living in Japan continues to squeeze domestic households' income ahead of Japan's upper house election on Sunday. USD/JPY Price Chart EUR/JPY currency pair The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The EUR/JPY currency pair remains at lofty level, however, the trend is being questioned. EUR/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Sustainability-Linked Products: Navigating Growth and Challenges for the Future

Pound Sterling Offered Support After News That Boris Johnson Is Set To Step Down (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD), FED FOMC Meeting Minutes (EUR/USD), Japan’s Upper House Elections (USD/JPY)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 07.07.2022 16:36
Summary: ECB and FOMC meeting minutes release. UK Prime Minister set to step down. GBP is little changed. Japan’s upper house elections. Read next: Bearish Outlook For The EUR/USD Currency Pair, Euro & GBP Are Only Two Currencies Dominated By The US Dollar’s Strength (EUR/GBP, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY)  ECB & Fed FOMC meeting minutes. The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The Euro has been under big pressure in the wake of global recessionary fears gripping the markets and causing its price to break below multi-decade lows. Earlier in Thursday's trading day, the Euro had managed to recover from some of the lows seen on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes were released. Later on Thursday the meeting minutes of the last European Central Bank (ECB) meeting are due to be released and almost any hawkish rhetoric could benefit the Euro. EUR/USD Price Chart Boris Johnson set to step down The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. Boris Johnson is set to resign in the wake of many high-profile resignations within his government in protest of Boris Johnson’s continuing leadership, the current Prime Minister is set to address the media later on Thursday. This news has aided the EUR/GBP currency pair in its downward momentum. In addition, the Euro itself isn’t faring well amidst economic concerns, the potential for widening periphery bond spreads as the European Central Bank raises rates, and ofcourse the possibility of complications in restoring Russian gas inflows to Germany via Nord Stream 1 which is also due to undergo routine maintenance from next Monday until the 21st July. EUR/GBP Price Chart Strong US Dollar. The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The US Dollar continues to strengthen in the wake of the Fed FOMC meeting minutes released late on Wednesday, and the continuing hawkish rhetoric. The GBP is little changed in most corresponding currency pairs. GBP/USD Price Chart Rising cost-of-living in Japan The market is reflecting bullish sentiment for this currency pair. The rising cost-of-living in Japan continues to squeeze domestic households' income ahead of Japan's upper house election on Sunday. The release of the Fed's FOMC meeting minutes has offered the US Dollar more support on Thursday whilst inflation is currently showing signs of becoming more politically based in Japan in the wake of the continuing cost-of-living squeeze. USD/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com  
Britain's Rishi Sunak And EU's Ursula Von Der Leyen Will Meet Today To Finalize The Northern Ireland Drama

Euro Sell-off Sentiment Continues Into The Weekend (EUR/USD), UK PM Boris Johnson’s Resignation Offers GBP Support (EUR/GBP), Dovish BoJ Continues (AUD/JPY, USD/JPY)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 08.07.2022 12:36
Summary: Noord stream 1 gas pipeline to begin maintenance. Gains for the GBP suggest that the currency has been holding some political risk premium. AUD/JPY bullish. USD/JPY Read next: Pound Sterling Offered Support After News That Boris Johnson Is Set To Step Down (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD), FED FOMC Meeting Minutes (EUR/USD), Japan’s Upper House Elections (USD/JPY)  Sell-off sentiment for the Euro continues The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The sell-off sentiment for the Euro is showing no sign of stopping going into the weekend, the woes around the Euro continue to stack up, with latest concerns becoming stronger around the repairing of the Noord Stream gas pipeline. The pipeline has been labelled a risk to both the EU economy and the German economy should Russia cut the gas flow or undersupply. In addition, the Fed’s FOMC meeting minutes for June reiterated the Fed’s commitment to aggressively hiking interest rates despite risk of slow economic growth. EUR/USD Price Chart Boris Johnson stepping down offers GBP support The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The EUR/GBP pair fell by around 1% on Thursday in the wake of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s resignation announcement; he will remain in power until a replacement is found. The pound sterling gains suggest indication that the currency has been holding some political risk premium that looks to have converted to a certain extent. Euro currency risk remains a domino effect of many events. EUR/GBP Price Chart Dovish BoJ continues The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The border weakness of the Japanese Yen has been felt. The Monetary of the Ministry of Finance (MoF) in Japan and by extension includes the Bank of Japan (BoJ), is going in the complete opposite direction to other global central banks (with the exception of the People’s Bank of China. The BoJ recently committed to extending their yield curve control program (YCC) and are close to holding 50% of all Japanese government bonds (JGBs) on issue. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), on the other hand, has committed to aggressive monetary policy tightening, offering the AUD support. AUD/JPY Price Chart USD/JPY Bullish The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The Japanese Yen has been facing weakness across the board as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to adopt dovish monetary policy and the Federal Reserve adopts the opposite approach and continues on with their aggressive monetary policy. The US Dollar continues to strengthen. USD/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
Market Trends and Currency Positioning: USD Net Short Position, Euro and Pound Analysis - 22.08.2023

EUR/USD Attempts Parity (EUR/USD), Noord Stream Maintenance Is Underway (EUR/GBP), BoC Policy Decision Due Wednesday (GBP/CAD), USD/JPY

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 11.07.2022 16:42
Summary: The Euro continues to be one of the more susceptible currencies as many headwinds build up. Will Russia resume gas supply to Noord Stream? Will the BoC policy decision offer CAD support? BoJ would do whatever is necessary to help the economy grow. Read next: Recession Fears Are Affecting Brent Crude Prices, Silver Price vs A Hawkish Federal Reserve, Corn At 8-Week Highs  US Dollar continues to strengthen across the board The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. On Monday the Noord Stream, Germany’s biggest pipeline closed for annual maintenance until the 21st July. The maintenance time period has increased speculation on whether or not Russia will resume gas flows after the maintenance has been completed. The Euro continues to be one of the more susceptible currencies as many headwinds build up. The European Central Bank (ECB) is still on track to raise interest rates (at least 25 bps) at their next meeting later on in July. The US Dollar continues to rise across the board, and investor attention will be aimed in the direction of the US CPI inflation data release for June on Wednesday. EUR/USD Price Chart   EUR/GBP mixed sentiment The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The pound sterling will continue to be affected by external events whilst politics grabs headlines. The Euro continues to be negatively affected by a combination of events. One of the main events being whether or not Russia will turn the taps back on for gas supplies through the Noord Stream once the maintenance is over, if they do not, the possibility of a recession in the Euro area will increase largely. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP/CAD hovers around 10-year lows The markets are keeping alert as they await the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) policy decision on Wednesday. Although the GBP/CAD currency pair hovers near 10 year lows, both currencies remained little changed on Monday and were both middle-of-the road performers amongst major currencies. GBP/CAD Price Chart BoJ representative speaks The market is reflecting mixed sentiment for this currency pair. A Bank of Japan (BoJ) representative warned the market that the current economic outlook remains uncertain due to the rising commodity prices and that the BoJ would do whatever is necessary to help the economy grow. The same representative also said that Japan’s financial system is robust, the economy is starting to improve and that the central bank would keep interest rates stable at the current or lower levels. USD/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Hungary's Central Bank to Maintain Base Rate at 13%, Eyes on Effective Rate Amid Forint's Performance

The EUR/GBP Cross-Currency Pair Justifies The Escalating Fears Of The Eurozone’s Recession

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 10.10.2022 10:34
EUR/GBP prints the first daily negative in five, grinds lower of late. Escalating fears of Eurozone recession, mixed political headlines from BOE keep sellers hopeful. BOE’s Bailey will face a tough task during his trip to Washington. Russia responds to Crimean bridge explosion by blowing Ukrainian President’s office. EUR/GBP fails to extend the four-day uptrend as it stays depressed near 0.8785 heading into Monday’s European session. In doing so, the cross-currency pair justifies the escalating fears of the Eurozone’s recession while trying to take positives from the mixed headlines from Britain. As per the latest update, the Bank of England (BOE) launches multiple intermediate measures to unleash liquidity into the UK market. Among the key measures discussed, the alterations in the repo facility will be important and can help the “Old Lady”, as the BOE is often called. Elsewhere, the fears of EU recession amplified after Russia’s reaction to the Crimean bridge explosion. Recently, the BBC came out with the news suggesting multiple large explosions hit Kyiv, marking it the first tragic event in months. It’s worth noting that the missiles also destroyed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's office. While the UK is likely benefiting from the bloc’s fears of a pause in the European Central Bank’s (ECB) hawkish move, doubts over the BOE’s ability to tame the financial crisis triggered by chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s September 23 fiscal announcements can keep the EUR/GBP buyers hopeful. Furthermore, political pessimism in Britain also propels the cross-currency pair. Moving on, the aforementioned risk catalysts and the UK’s employment data can entertain the EUR/GBP traders ahead of Friday’s speech of BOE Governor Andrew Bailey. If Bailey fails to defend his latest surprises, the EUR/GBP may have further upside to track. Technical analysis EUR/GBP retreats from the one-month-old support-turned-resistance line, around 0.8815 by the press time, as it directs bears towards June’s peak surrounding 0.8720.
Britain's Rishi Sunak And EU's Ursula Von Der Leyen Will Meet Today To Finalize The Northern Ireland Drama

The EUR/GBP Pair: A Slump Towards The Monthly Low Can’t Be Ruled Out

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 12.10.2022 09:37
EUR/GBP consolidates biggest daily gains in two weeks inside bullish chart formation. Reports that BOE could extend bond-buying triggered GBP’s immediate strength. 200-SMA adds strength to 0.8735 support confluence, oscillators also favor buyers. EUR/GBP portrays the British Pound’s (GBP) immediate run-up on the Financial Times (FT) report that the Bank of England (BOE) is likely to extend the bond-buying program. In doing so, the cross-currency pair reverses from the upper line of a weekly bullish channel while flashing 0.8796 as the daily low, around 0.8825 by the press time of early Wednesday morning in Europe. “The Bank of England has signaled privately to bankers that it could extend its emergency bond-buying program past this Friday’s deadline, according to people briefed on the discussions, even as Governor Andrew Bailey warned pension funds that they “have three days left” before the support ends,” mentioned FT. Although the recent news suggests further downside of the EUR/GBP pair, a convergence of the 200-SMA and the stated bullish channel’s bottom, around 0.8735, appears a tough nut to crack for the bears. Following that, a slump towards refreshing the monthly low, currently around 0.8650, can’t be ruled out. It should be noted that the MACD and the RSI (14) are both in favor of the quote’s further upside. That said, the aforementioned channel’s top, close to 0.8870, guards the EUR/GBP pair’s immediate rebound. Also acting as an upside filter is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of September month upside, near 0.8910, a break of which will direct the EUR/GBP bears towards the 0.9000 psychological magnet. EUR/GBP: Four-hour chart Trend: Limited downside expected
Britain's Rishi Sunak And EU's Ursula Von Der Leyen Will Meet Today To Finalize The Northern Ireland Drama

The Euro To British Pound (EUR/GBP) Cross Gets Support From Another Factor

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 18.10.2022 08:34
EUR/GBP seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses through the Asian session on Tuesday. The UK political uncertainty undermines the British pound and offers support to the cross. A weaker USD benefits the shared currency and also contributes to limiting the downside. The EUR/GBP cross struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from its lowest level since early September and oscillates in a narrow trading band on Tuesday. The cross is currently placed in neutral territory, around mid-0.8600s, as traders await a fresh catalyst before positioning for the next leg of a directional move. The downside, however, remains cushioned, at least for now, amid the UK political uncertainty, which continues to act as a headwind for the British pound. In fact, rebels within the ruling Tory Party are coming together to replace the newly-elected UK Prime Minister Liz Truss in the wake of the recent tax cut fiasco. It is worth recalling that the new UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt reversed almost all tax measures set out in the mini-budget led to chaos in the financial markets. The shared currency, on the other hand, draws some support from the prevalent selling bias around the US dollar. This is seen as another factor offering some support to the EUR/GBP cross. That said, soaring bets for a bigger 100 bps rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) in November offer some support to sterling and keep a lid on any meaningful upside for the cross. This, in turn, warrants some caution for aggressive traders and positioning for a firm intraday direction. The market focus now shifts to the latest UK consumer inflation figures, due for release on Wednesday. The data will influence BoE rate hike expectations and drive the British pound. Traders will further take cues from the final Eurozone CPI prints, which might further contribute to providing some meaningful impetus to the EUR/GBP cross.
Britain's Rishi Sunak And EU's Ursula Von Der Leyen Will Meet Today To Finalize The Northern Ireland Drama

The Euro To British Pound (EUR/GBP) Pair Consistently Hit Lower Lows

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 21.10.2022 09:13
EUR/GBP has advanced to 0.8740 amid downbeat UK Retail Sales data. A negative divergence formation has bolstered signs of a bullish reversal. The cross is overlapping with the 200-EMA at around 0.8715. The EUR/GBP pair has picked significant bids and has accelerated to near 0.8740 as the UK Office for National Statistics has reported downbeat Retail Sales data. The annual Retail Sales have declined by 6.9%, against the expectations of a 5.0% decline and the prior release of -5.4%. While the monthly retail sales figure remained negative by 1.4% vs. the projections of a 0.5% decline. Meanwhile, public Sector Net Borrowings have remained marginally lower at GBP 19.248B vs. the estimate of GBP 19.325B. On an hourly scale, the asset has displayed a rebound after a bullish negative divergence formation. It is worth noting that the asset was continuously making lower lows while the momentum oscillator, Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) made a higher low. This indicates a loss in the downside momentum. Also, the momentum oscillator has shifted into the 40.00-60.00 range. The cross is overlapping with the 200-Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around 0.8715, which signals a consolidation ahead. Going forward, a break above the upward-sloping trendline from October 4 low at 0.8649 will drive the asset towards the round-level hurdle of 0.8900, followed by September 29 high at 0.8980. On the contrary, a drop below Monday’s low at 0.8578 will drag the asset toward August 19 high at 0.8511. A slippage below the latter will expose the cross to August 19 low at 0.8449. EUR/GBP hourly chart  
Britain's Rishi Sunak And EU's Ursula Von Der Leyen Will Meet Today To Finalize The Northern Ireland Drama

The EUR/GBP Pair: The Shared Currency Bulls Have Picked Demand

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 24.10.2022 09:04
EUR/GBP is playing around the immediate hurdle of 0.8700 after a firmer rebound. The chances of a 75 bps rate hike announcement by the ECB look solid. Former UK PM Boris Johnson has asked Rishi Sunak to step back from the UK PM race. The EUR/GBP pair is hovering near the round-level resistance of 0.8700 in the late Tokyo session. The asset has accelerated after a gap-down opening near 0.8660 and is aiming to overstep the immediate hurdle of 0.8700. The shared currency bulls have picked demand as investors are betting over a bigger rate hike announcement by the European Central Bank (ECB). Price pressures in the trading bloc are mounting and have not displayed any sign of exhaustion yet. Therefore, ECB President Christine Lagarde is required to tighten its policy further. According to analysts from Rabobank, a 75 basis point (bps) interest rate hike is a done deal. They see the deposit rate reaching 3% by March next year. Currently, the ECB rates stand at 1.25% as the central bank announced a 75 bps rate hike in September. Apart from that, soaring energy bills are hurting the sentiment of households in Germany. On Friday, Reuters reported that German Parliament is preparing to vote for the approval of a €200 billion emergency rescue package to tackle the energy crisis. On the UK front, escalating political tensions have turned the pound bulls extremely volatile. The Shortest UK Prime Ministerial term by Liz Truss has dampened the confidence of stakeholders. Meanwhile, the debt crisis in the UK economy has reached the sky and the novel UK prime Minister will face the highest-ever debt burden. It would be worth watching the efforts from would-be UK Prime Minister and newly appointed Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt in fixing the pile debt mess. British Conservative Party needs a suitable candidate to maintain decorum and avoid their defeat in General Elections, scheduled for 2024. However, Boris Johnson has asked Rishi Sunak to step down from the UK PM race, which will be decided latest by Friday.
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The Euro To British Pound (EUR/GBP) Cross Pair Prices Back Above

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 31.10.2022 13:11
EUR/GBP gains some positive traction on Monday and snaps a four-day losing streak. Stronger Eurozone inflation data provide a modest lift to the euro and offer support. A combination of factors seems to underpin sterling and might cap gains for the cross. The EUR/GBP cross attracts some buying near the 0.8575-0.8570 region on Monday and snaps a four-day losing streak to its lowest level since early September. The intraday uptick picks up pace following the release of stronger Eurozone consumer inflation figures and lifts spot prices back above the 0.8600 mark during the first half of the European session. The latest data published by Eurostat showed that the annualized Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) accelerate to 10.7% in October from 9.9% in the previous month. Adding to this, the core figures climbed to 5.0% YoY during the reported month as compared to the 4.9% expected and 4.8% recorded in September. Separately, the first reading of the Eurozone GDP print showed that the economy expanded by 0.2% during the third quarter, matching consensus estimates. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor behind the shared currency's relative outperformance against its British counterpart and offering some support to the EUR/GBP cross. That said, a more dovish tone adopted by the European Central Bank last week - in the wake of the worsening economic outlook - continues to act as a headwind for the euro. The British pound, on the other hand, draws support from the latest optimism over the appointment of Rishi Sunak as the new UK Prime Minister. Market players see Sunak as someone who can bring stability back after the recent volatility in the markets. Adding to this, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told Reuters that she expects the new UK PM Sunak to steer Britain towards a path of medium-term fiscal sustainability. Apart from this, expectations for a 75 bps hike by the Bank of England warrant some caution for aggressive bullish traders and positioning for a further appreciating move for the EUR/GBP cross. Hence, any subsequent strength is more likely to confront stiff resistance and remain capped near the mid-0.8600s, which should act as a pivotal point for intraday traders. Some follow-through buying should push spot prices back above the 0.8700 mark and allow bulls to aim back to retest the 0.8750-0.8760 supply zone.
Unraveling UK Inflation: The Bank of England's Next Move

The Dovish Decision Of The Bank Of England (BoE) Puts A Heavy Burden On The GBP

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 04.11.2022 13:39
Summary:  The FOMC meeting this week forced the market to adjust to the idea that the Fed could continue to take rates higher than had previously been priced. But clearly, to drive tightening expectations higher still, we’ll need to continue to see hotter than expected US data, with today’s US jobs report the next test on that. Elsewhere, sterling is in a world of hurt after BoE’s very dovish guidance. FX Trading focus: US incoming data focus after hawkish FOMC. BoE in dovish pushback against market hike expectations. The US dollar followed through stronger yesterday on the momentum off the back of the hawkish Powell presser Wednesday, but has come in for a chunky reversal overnight and today since a somewhat softer than expected ISM services survey yesterday (nudged lower to 54.4 vs. 55.3 expected and 56.7 in September, with the employment sub-index dipping back below 50 at 49.1 vs. 53.0 in September). Wouldn’t it be ironic if we also were to get a soft US jobs report today that takes US yields back to their starting point of the week, making Powell’s hawkish message so much noise, at least until the next incoming data point jerks the market the other way? Interestingly, the USD is selling off ahead of today’s US data releases even as short US yields are posting new highs for the cycle Specifically in today’s jobs report, in addition to any strong directional surprise in payrolls (multi-month grain of salt needed with this data series, as single releases require further corroborating evidence), we should keep both eyes on the average hourly earnings survey. Arguably, if we get the expected 0.3% month-to-month average hourly earnings print today after a couple of prior prints of a similar size, observers may begin to judge that the annualized rise in earnings is beginning to look far less threatening at sub-4.0%. The year-on-year is expected to drop to a 15-month low of 4.7% today. A significant upside surprise in earnings is perhaps could generate significant volatility. Chart: EURGBPWorth considering how the dovish Bank of England meeting yesterday (see more below) is weighing heavily on sterling, as it should, with the Bank of England reluctant to signal much tightening energy when it sees an incoming recession. Sterling is down sharply across the board, with EURGBP suddenly well backed up within the old range and now far away from the sub-0.8600 range support. The next area between the 0.8800 and pivot high of 0.8870 area looks key for whether sterling weakness is set to become a bit more unhinged, and the next key event-risk test is likely how the market greets an austere Autumn budget statement on November 17. Bank of England wrap. The BoE hiked by 75 bps to 3%, as most expected and as was mostly priced in, but Bailey and company strongly pushed back against expectations for the scale of future moves, saying that the terminal rate priced in currently by the markets would induce a two-year recession. There were also two dovish dissenters at the meeting, one calling for 50 bps rate hike and another for a mere 25 bps. New forecasts were also released, which gave a particularly grim outlook for the economy, looking for a GDP print of -0.5% QoQ in Q3 2022 vs -0.1% expected in September. The inflation forecast now shows a peak around 11% in Q4, which is marginally hotter than the prior meeting’s projection. Sterling was crushed lower, having already fallen heading into the meeting, and it speaks volumes that even though the BoE pushed back against the forward implied expectations for further tightening, which it said would trigger a 2-year UK recession, the market did not budge those expectations. In short: the market refuses to acknowledge what the BoE thinks it might do, probably figuring that the BoE will have no choice due to sterling weakness but to pursue the path to 4.50% or higher rates before mid-next year. I was surprised by the lack of discussion or journalist questioning in the press conference around the risk that currency weakness drives worse inflationary outcomes if the BoE fails to do as much as the market is pricing. Sterling remains in a heap of trouble. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.The USD needs to stick the move off the back of the FOMC meeting after the US jobs data today, otherwise we’ll suddenly be back to square one. The hottest movement in FX was clearly the sterling sell-off yesterday on a very clearly dovish Bank of England meeting. CNH is making waves on a lot of movement overnight and noise (unconfirmed) of an eventual opening up. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.While the US dollar flipped to a positive trend in many places, we must still consider the risk that incoming data complicates the plot. GBP is already registering a negative trend in many new GBP pairs after yesterday’s BoE meeting. Interesting that the NOK failed to roll over to the downside in a couple of key pairs after the small hike from the Norges Bank yesterday. Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights 1215 – UK Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill to speak 1230 – US Oct. Nonfarm Payrolls Change 1230 – US Oct. Unemployment Rate 1230 – US Oct. Average Hourly Earnings 1230 - Canada Oct. Unemployment Change/Rate 1400 – Canada Oct. Ivey PMI 1400 – US Fed’s Collins (Voter 2022) to speak Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/fx-update-us-incoming-data-sterling-pays-price-after-dovish-boe-04112022
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The Bank Of England's Gloomy Outlook Should Undermine The Pound (GBP)

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 09.11.2022 09:13
EURGBP lacks any firm intraday direction and remains confined in a narrow trading band. Talks for aggressive policy tightening by the ECB underpin the Euro and offers support. The BoE’s gloomy outlook could weigh on the British Pound and favour bullish traders. The EURGBP cross struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest gains and oscillates in a narrow trading band, just above the 0.8700 mark through the early European session on Wednesday. Talks of a more aggressive policy tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB) continue to benefit the shared currency and offer support to the EURGBP cross. In fact, several ECB policymakers said that higher rates are needed for longer to bring down double-digit inflation in the Eurozone back to its 2% target. This, in turn, pushes the rate-sensitive two-year German bond yield to its highest since December 2008 and is seen acting as a tailwind for the Euro. The British Pound, on the other hand, draws support from the recent slump in the US Dollar and keeps a lid on the EURGBP cross. That said, the Bank of England's gloomy outlook for the UK economy should undermine the Sterling and supports prospects for some upside for the cross. It is worth recalling that the UK central bank forecasts a recession to last for all of 2023 and the first half of 2024 while indicating a lower terminal peak than is priced into markets. The fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the EURGBP cross is to the upside and any slide below the 0.8700 round figure could be seen as a buying opportunity. Bulls, however, might wait for a sustained strength beyond the 0.8775-0.8780 resistance zone before placing fresh bets amid absent relevant market-moving economic releases. The market focus now shifts to the release of the Preliminary UK Q3 GDP report on Friday.
Indonesia's Inflation Slips, Central Bank Maintains Rates Amidst Stability

The USD Could Yet Reject This Breakdown Attempt | Weak Risk Sentiment Could Provide The Strongest Support For The JPY

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 09.11.2022 13:25
Summary:  Market sentiment improved further yesterday before dipping slightly overnight, as China Covid cases are on the rise, pushing back against hopes for a lifting of Covid restrictions. In the US mid-term elections, Democrats are slightly outperforming expectations, possibly set to retain control of the Senate even if Republicans look set to take narrow control of the House of Representatives. FX Trading focus: Next test for struggling USD over tomorrow’s US CPI data. The US mid-term election results are still rolling in this morning in Europe, with the Republicans set to take a small majority in the House and the Senate outcome looking at risk of riding on the outcome of a Georgia run-off election on December 6th as neither candidate looks set to achieve the 50% required for elections there. Remember that we had a similar setup after the 2020 election when two Senate races in Georgia were only decided in a January 5 run-off. There are no real market conclusions from the outcome, even if the Georgia race gives the Republicans a majority in the Senate, as the only scenario that would have guaranteed dramatic potential for fiscal policy would have been the Democrats surprisingly retaining both houses. Other conclusions: Trump is a liability for the Republican party, which likely would have done far better without his involvement, and forensic studies of split-ticket voting will likely confirm this, and it will be interesting to see if this deters his possible renewed ambitions for the presidency. Finally: razor thin Georgia results keep alive the narratives around election fraud, etc. Can the US move beyond its dysfunctional elections by 2024 or will the republic face an existential test in that election cycle? Back to incoming data, with tomorrow’s US October CPI in focus. Let’s recall that the September CPI data point was a real shocker as many qualified slicers and dicers of the data were looking for a deceleration in the core data rather than the acceleration we got. That has me leaning for a slightly softer release tomorrow. But I am far more interested in the nature of the market reaction. As I have discussed the last couple of days on the Saxo Market Call podcast, I find the most interesting test for the US dollar one in which we see inflation decelerating and US treasury yields perhaps easing a bit lower, but in which we also see risk sentiment weak as equity and bond markets are starting to decouple, as equities begin to fret recession rather than being merely led around by the nose by the treasury market. If that is the scenario we get and the USD weakens, then I think USD weakness can extend a bit more forcefully for a time, if not, then the USD could yet reject this breakdown attempt. I withhold judgement for now, as the USD has not yet broken down. But the easiest thing to do is to simply judge what happens on the charts in the wake of the data release (not knee-jerk, but how the day closes), as we have a number of clear-cut levels in play for the major USD pairs. Chart: USDJPY USDJPY has traditionally been a strong focus over US data surprises over the years and will be in focus with the macro event risk of the week, if not the month, coming up tomorrow in the form of the US October CPI release. Reaction in yields and risk sentiment are both worth watching as I have cooked up some thoughts of late (see above) on whether US treasury markets and equity markets could move out of correlation, i.e., that risk sentiment may have a hard time celebrating a drop in treasury yields. So, a weaker than expected US CPI report together with falling treasury yields, but also together with weak risk sentiment could provide the strongest support for the JPY here in a broad sense, though it might be felt more forcefully in JPY crosses. Regardless, if the JPY finds bids tomorrow, the 145.00 level will be a huge focus in USDJPY. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.The USD is clearly down, but will only be out on sticking further weakness in the wake of the US CPI release tomorrow. Elsewhere, note the sterling momentum turning badly south and SEK trying to look higher, not a surprise given European equities having rallied vertically for weeks – looking a bit much. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.EURGBP is one to focus on around the 0.8800 level. JPY crosses are interesting in places as well as yields have consolidated a bit lower – look at the 165 area in GBPJPY, for example. But it is all about key USD levels after the US data tomorrow, including 1.0100 in EURUSD, 0.6522 in AUDUSD, etc… Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights 1200 – Mexico Oct. CPI 1300 – UK Bank of England’s Haskel to speak 1530 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report 1630 – UK Bank of England’s Cunliffe to speak 1700 – World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) 0001 – UK Oct. RICS House Price Balance 0100 – US Fed’s Kashkari (Voter 2023) to speak   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/fx-update-usd-on-edge-ahead-of-the-us-cpi-data-tomorrow-09112022
Bank of England survey highlights easing price pressures

The UK Central Bank (BoE) Expects A Recession To Last For All Of 2023

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 10.11.2022 09:51
EURGBP lacks any firm intraday direction and oscillates in a range on Thursday. A combination of factors, however, continues to act as a tailwind for the cross. Talks for aggressive tightening by the ECB underpin the Euro and offers support. The BoE’s bleak outlook for the UK economy supports prospects for further gains. The EURGBP cross is seen oscillating in a range, around the 0.8800 round-figure mark through the early European session and consolidating the overnight strong gains to a nearly one-month high. The Bank of England's gloomy outlook for the UK economy turns out to be a key factor behind the British Pound's relative underperformance and acts as a tailwind for the EURGBP cross. In fact, the UK central bank expects a recession to last for all of 2023 and the first half of 2024. Moreover, the BoE last week indicated a lower terminal peak than was priced into the markets. The shared currency, on the other hand, continues to draw some support from bets for a more aggressive policy tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB). Several ECB policymakers, including President Christine Lagarde, indicated that the central bank will keep raising rates aggressively to tackle red-hot consumer inflation, which accelerated to a record high of 10.7% in October. This, in turn, pushed Germany’s short-dated yields to fresh multi-year highs earlier this week and adds credence to the near-term positive bias for the EURGBP cross. Even from a technical perspective, the previous day's sustained move and acceptance above the 0.8775-0.8780 supply zone support prospects for an extension of a nearly three-week-old uptrend. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release on Thursday, either from the Eurozone or the UK. Hence, the focus remains on the Preliminary UK Q3 GDP print on Friday. Investors will also look forward to British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt's fiscal statement on November 17. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favour of bullish traders.
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The EUR/GBP Pair's Bulls Are All Set To Challenge

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 11.11.2022 09:15
EURGBP remains mildly bid while showing no major reaction to the UK, German data. UK’s Q3 GDP eased to -0.2% QoQ versus -0.5% expected and 0.2% prior. Germany’s HICP inflation gauge confirmed 11.6% YoY figures for October. The market’s cautious optimism underpins bullish bias, off in the US, and Canada restricts immediate advances. EURGBP holds onto smaller gains around 0.8730, picking up bids of late, even as the UK’s third quarter (Q3) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) printed mixed data heading into Friday’s London open. That said, the preliminary prints of the UK’s Q3 GDP signaled that the British economy contracted by 0.20% QoQ versus -0.50% market consensus and the previous expansion of the 0.20% QoQ figure. On the other hand, the final prints of Germany’s inflation data for October, as per theHarmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measure confirmed the 11.6% initial readings. With this, the market’s cautious optimism and the Euro’s (EUR) benefit from the US Dollar’s (USD) south-run, mainly after the previous day’s US inflation data, keeps the EURGBP buyers hopeful. It’s worth noting that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped to the lowest levels in the eight months the previous day and bolstered the hopes of an easy Fed rate hike. The same contrast with the hawkish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) representatives and enable the EUR to remain firmer. However, a bank holiday in the US and Canada restricts the market’s latest moves. On the same line are mixed concerns surrounding the US-China tussle over Taiwan and the Covid conditions in China. Amid these plays, the US S&P 500 futures stay on their way to refreshing the two-month high while the US Treasury yields remain pressured, mostly inactive. Moving on, EURGBP traders should pay attention to the updates from the UK government and the Bank of England (BOE) concerning the reaction to the UK Q3 GDP, for fresh impulse. Technical analysis A daily closing below the 21-DMA immediate support, around 0.8690 by the press time, appears necessary for the EURGBP bears to retake control. Until then, the bulls are all set to challenge the monthly resistance line, around 0.8825 by the press time.
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US Dollar (USD) Recovery Keeps A Lid On Any Meaningful Upside For The EUR/GBP Cross

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.11.2022 10:58
EURGBP gains some positive traction for the second straight day, though lacks any follow-through. A modest USD rebound is weighing on the common currency and acting as a headwind for the cross. Traders also seem reluctant ahead of this week’s UK macro data and Chancellor Hunt’s statement. The EURGBP cross edges higher for the second successive day on Monday and sticks to its modest intraday gains through the early European session. The cross is currently placed above the mid-0.8700s, though lacks any follow-through buying or bullish conviction. The shared currency continues to draw some support from bets for a more aggressive policy tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB). The British Pound, on the other hand, is undermined by the gloomy outlook for the UK economy. In fact, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) expects the UK GDP growth to be flat in Q4 and noted that the risk of a contraction remains elevated. This, in turn, is seen lending some support to the EURGBP cross. That said, the prospects for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of England act as a tailwind for the Sterling. Apart from this, a modest US Dollar recovery from a nearly three-month low exerts some pressure on the Euro and keeps a lid on any meaningful upside for the EURGBP cross, at least for now. Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of this week's important UK macro data - the monthly jobs report on Tuesday and the CPI report on Wednesday. Investors will further take cues from the BoE's Monetary Policy Report Hearings on Wednesday and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement on Thursday. This will play a key role in influencing the near-term sentiment surrounding the GBP and determine the next leg of a directional move for the EURGBP cross. In the meantime, spot prices seem more likely to consolidate in a range amid absent relevant market-moving economic releases, either from the Eurozone or the UK.
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Aggressive Bearish Bets Has Arrived Around The EUR/GBP Pair

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 15.11.2022 10:04
EURGBP comes under some selling pressure on Tuesday, though the downside remains cushioned. The mixed UK employment figures reaffirm further BoE rate hikes and underpin the British Pound. Talks for a more aggressive tightening ECB  benefit the shared currency and lend support to the cross. The EURGBP cross extends the previous day's modest pullback from the 0.8820-0.8830 resistance zone and edges lower through the early European session on Tuesday. The cross remains on the defensive around the 0.8770-0.8765 region and moves little following the release of the latest UK employment details. The UK Office for National Statistics reported that the jobless rate unexpectedly ticks higher to 3.6% during the three months to September from 3.5% previous. Adding to this, the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits came in at 3.3K against consensus estimates pointing to a fall of 12.6K. The disappointment, however, was offset by stronger wage growth figures. In fact, the Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses rose to 5.7% from 5.5%, beating estimates for an uptick to 5.6%. The data reaffirms market bets for a further policy tightening by the Bank of England, which is seen offering some support to the British Pound. That said, a modest pickup in demand for the shared currency acts as a tailwind for the EURGBP cross and limits the downside. Against the backdrop of talks for a more aggressive policy tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB), the emergence of fresh selling around the US Dollar offers support to the Euro. This, in turn, warrants some caution before placing aggressive bearish bets around the EURGBP cross and positioning for any further intraday losses ahead of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment.
Indonesia's Inflation Slips, Central Bank Maintains Rates Amidst Stability

G10 Forex Market in 2023 To Be Characterised By More Volatility

ING Economics ING Economics 20.11.2022 11:30
After an 18-month bull trend in the dollar, the FX outlook has become less clear. Further position adjustment could prompt a little more short-term dollar weakness, but we do not believe the conditions are in place for a major dollar bear trend just yet. Instead, we expect FX markets in 2023 to be characterised by less trend and more volatility. Source: Shutterstock G10: Less trend, more volatility The final quarter of 2022 has seen a breakdown in the otherwise orderly dollar bull trend – a trend which had been worth 5% per quarter over the first nine months of the year. That dollar rally had largely been driven by a Federal Reserve wanting to take policy into restrictive territory – a trend only exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. For all the current discussions about peak dollar and peak macro pessimism, we think it is still worth examining whether the conditions will be in place to deliver an orderly dollar bear trend in 2023. We think not and here are three reasons why: Driving the dollar bull trend since summer 2021 has been a Fed at first abandoning Average Inflation Targeting and then trying to get ahead of the inflation surge. A call on a benign dollar decline in 2023 requires the Fed to be taking a back seat. That seems unlikely. The stark message from both the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium and the IMF autumn meetings was that central banks should avoid relaxing too early in their inflation battle – a move which would deliver the pain of recession without any of the sustained gains on inflation. We suspect it will be too early for the Fed to sound relaxed at its 14 December meeting and March 2023 may be the first opportunity for a decisive turn in Fed rhetoric. While a softer Fed profile may be a necessary condition for a turn in the dollar, a sufficient condition requires a global economic environment attractive enough to draw funds out of the dollar. 2023 global growth forecasts are still being cut – dragged lower especially by recession in Europe. ING forecasts merchandise world trade growth below 2% in 2023 – not a particularly attractive story for the trade-sensitive currencies in Europe and emerging markets. A liquidity premium will be required of non-dollar currencies. 2023 will be a year when central banks are initially still hiking into a recession and shrinking balance sheets. The Fed will reduce its balance sheet by a further $1.1tn in 2023 and the European Central Bank will be looking at quantitative tightening, too. Lower excess reserves will tighten liquidity conditions still further and raise FX volatility levels. Again, the bar not to invest in dollar deposits remains high – especially when those dollar deposits start to pay 5% and the dollar retains its crown as the most liquid currency on the planet. What do these trends mean for G10 FX markets? This probably means that the dollar can bounce around near the highs rather than embark on a clean bear trend in 2023. If the dollar is to turn substantially lower, we would favour the defensive currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc outperforming. Here, the positive correlation between bonds and equity markets may well break down via the bond market rallying on the back of a US recession and easier Fed policy. ING forecasts US 10-year Treasury yields ending 2023 at 2.75% - USD/JPY could be trading at 130 under that scenario.  Recession in Europe means that EUR/USD could be trading in a 0.95-1.05 range for most of the year, where fears of another energy crisis in the winter of 2023 and uncertainty in Ukraine will hold the euro back. Sterling should also stay fragile as the new government attempts to restore fiscal credibility with Austerity 2.0. We cannot see sterling being rewarded much more on austerity and suspect that GBP/USD struggles to hold gains over 1.20.  Elsewhere in Europe, some differentiation could emerge between the Scandinavian currencies. The Swedish krona may struggle to enter a sustained uptrend next year given its elevated exposure to the eurozone’s growth story, while the Norwegian krone could benefit from its attractive commodity exposure. However, NOK is an illiquid and more volatile currency, and would therefore face a bigger downside in a risk-off scenario. As shown in the chart below, commodity currencies look undervalued versus the dollar on a fundamental basis. However, a stabilisation in risk sentiment is a necessary condition to close the misvaluation gap. For the Australian and New Zealand dollars, an improvement in China’s medium-term outlook is also essential, so the Canadian dollar may emerge as a more attractive pro-cyclical bet given low exposure to the economic woes of Europe and China. Another factor to consider is the depth of the forthcoming house price contraction. We think central banks will increasingly take this into consideration and will try to avert an uncontrolled fall in the housing sector. However, this is potentially a very sizeable downside risk, especially for the currencies of commodity-exporting countries, which generally display the most overvalued property markets in the G10. To conclude, we think FX trends will become less clear in 2023 and volatility will continue to rise. FX option volatility may seem expensive relative to historical levels, but not at all when compared to the volatility FX pairs are actually delivering. We suspect risk management through FX options may become even more popular in 2023.   Valuation, volatility and liquidity in G10 Source: ING, Refinitiv EUR/USD: Dollar bromance will take some breaking   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 EUR/USD 1.035 Bearish 0.98 0.95 0.98 1.00 1.00 Bullish leap of faith is too dangerous: We are bearish on EUR/USD into the end of the first quarter of 2023. Key factors which have driven EUR/USD lower this year will remain largely in place. The softish US October CPI print may give the Fed some pause for thought, but should not be enough to derail it from some further tightening – taking the policy rate close to 5.00% in the first quarter of 2023. Another key factor for EUR/USD this year has been energy. Here, our team sees prices for both natural gas and oil rising from current levels through 2023. A difficult 2023 European winter for energy may well restrain the EUR/USD recovery later in the year, continuing to depress the eurozone’s traditionally large current account surplus.   Necessary but not sufficient: Tighter Fed policy has been at the forefront of this year’s dollar rally and a shift in the Fed tone (more likely in March 2023 than December 2022) will be necessary to see the short end of the US yield curve soften appreciably and the dollar weaken. But the sufficient condition for a EUR/USD turnaround is the state of affairs amongst trading partners. Are they attractive enough to draw funds away from USD cash deposits potentially paying 5%? That is a high bar and why we would favour the EUR/USD 2023 recovery being very modest, rather than the ‘V’ shape some are talking about. ECB will blink first: The case for a central bank pivot is stronger for the ECB than the Fed. The German economy looks set to contract 1.5% next year and at its 15 December meeting, the ECB may well use its 2025 forecast round to show inflation back on target. We see the ECB tightening cycle stalling at 2.25% in February versus the near 3% currently priced by the market for 2023. This all assumes a seamless ECB introduction of quantitative tightening and one that does not upset peripheral bond markets. Add in global merchandise trade barely growing above 1% next year (recall how the 2017-19 trade wars weighed on the euro) plus the risk of tighter liquidity spilling into financial stability – all suggest the market’s bromance with the dollar will continue for a while yet.  USD/JPY: 1Q23 will be a crucial quarter   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 USD/JPY 140.00 Bearish 145.00 145.00 140.00 135.00 130.00 Clash of the titans: The stark divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the Bank of Japan has been the primary driver of this year’s 15%+ rally in USD/JPY. In 2023, investors may question whether the BoJ is ready to tighten. The default view is that the perma-dovish BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, will not be moved. However, the end of Governor Kuroda’s term on 8 April 2023 will no doubt lead to frenzied speculation on his replacement and whether a less dovish candidate emerges. Interest rate markets are starting to price a change – e.g. the BoJ’s 10-year target sovereign yield of 0.25% is priced at 0.50% in six months’ time. March 2023 will be especially volatile: The first quarter of 2023 will also see huge focus on the Japanese wage round, where a rise in wages is a prerequisite for the BoJ to tighten policy. Japanese politicians have been encouraging business leaders to raise wages, while at the same time, the government has been quite aggressive with fiscal stimulus to offset the cost-of-living shock. This period will also see the Fed release its dot plots (22 March), which may be the first real chance for the Fed to acknowledge a turn in the inflation profile. As such, this period (March/April) could see a big reversal lower in USD/JPY. FX Intervention slows the move: Most agree that USD/JPY is higher for good reasons (including the energy crisis) and that Japanese FX intervention can only slow, not reverse the move. The Japanese have already spent around $70bn in FX intervention between the 146 and 151 region in USD/JPY and will likely be called into further action based on our view of a stronger dollar over coming months. FX reserves are not limitless, of course, but Japan’s large stockpile of $1.1tn means that this campaign can continue for several more months. The purpose here is to buy time before the Fed cycle turns. Unless we end up with 6%+ policy rates in the US next year, we would expect USD/JPY to be ending 2023 nearer 130. GBP/USD: Running repairs   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 GBP/USD 1.19 Mildly Bearish 1.10 1.07 1.11 1.14 1.14 Fiscal rescue plan: After September’s government-inflicted flash crash, GBP/USD is now recovering on the expectation of more credible UK fiscal plans and the softer dollar. As above, we doubt 2023 will prove the year of a benign dollar decline. And the risk is that the Fed keeps rates at elevated levels for longer. Given sterling’s large current account deficit and its transition to high beta on the external environment, we think it is too early to be expecting a sustained recovery here. Instead, we favour a return to the 1.10 area into year-end as the government introduces Austerity 2.0 and the Bank of England cycle is repriced lower. Tighter fiscal/looser monetary mix: At its meeting in early November, the BoE pushed back against the market pricing of the rate cycle – arguing that hikes close to 5% would see the UK economy contract 5%. Our call is that the BoE terminal rate will be closer to the 3.75% area than the 4.50% that the market prices today. As the BoE assesses the degree of tightening needed to curtail inflation, the government is discussing ways to fill around a £60bn hole in the budget. The plan will be revealed on 17 November, probably in a roughly 50:50 split between tax hikes and real terms spending cuts. We look for the UK economy to contract every quarter in 2023 – making it a very difficult environment for sterling. Sterling suffers from liquidity outages: This year’s BIS triennial FX survey saw sterling retain its position as the fourth most traded currency pair. Despite this, sterling does occasionally suffer from flash crashes. We think liquidity will be at a premium in 2023 and that a Fed taking real rates even higher as economies head into recession is a dangerous combination for sterling – where financial services make up a large section of the economy. GBP/USD realised volatility is now back to levels seen during Brexit and our market call for 2023 is that these types of levels will become more, not less, common. EUR/JPY: A turn in the cycle   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 EUR/JPY 144.50 Bearish 142.00 138.00 137.00 135.00 130.00 Downside risks into 1Q23: EUR/JPY has defied typical relationships with risk assets by gently rallying all year even as both bond and equity benchmarks sold off 20%. Driving that JPY underperformance has probably been BoJ policy and USD/JPY’s strong relationship with US 10-year yields. Both the eurozone and Japan have been hit by the energy shock, where external surpluses have quickly dwindled. As above, we tend to think there are downside risks to EUR/JPY in the first quarter of 2023 as speculation mounts over BoJ Kuroda's successor as well as the ECB potentially calling time on their tightening cycle at the February meeting. US10yr can drag EUR/JPY to 130 in 2H23: A large part of the JPY underperformance during 2022 has been driven by developments in the US bond market. USD/JPY consistently shows the most positive correlation to US 10-year Treasury yields of any of the G10 FX pairs – and far higher than EUR/USD. Consistent with ING’s view on the Fed cutting rates in the third quarter of 2023, our debt strategy team sees US 10-year yields starting to edge lower in the second quarter of 2023, and then falling 100bp in the second half of 2023. In theory, this should heavily pressure EUR/JPY into the end of the year. Financial stability risks increase: Lower growth and tighter liquidity conditions – at least through the early part of 2023 – increase the prospect of financial stability risks. Recall the Fed will be shrinking its balance sheet by $1.1tn in 2023 even as liquidity and bid-offer spreads continue to create difficult market conditions. The yen lost its shine as a safe-haven currency in 2022, but we suspect relative to the euro, some of that shine can be regained in a softer US rate environment. The EUR/JPY cycle should also turn if the ECB calls time on its tightening cycle at the 2 February meeting. EUR/GBP: Listless in London   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 EUR/GBP 0.87 Neutral 0.89 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.88 In the same macro boat: Both the eurozone and UK economies have been hit hard by the war in Ukraine and the surge in energy prices. Both saw sharp terms of trade declines into August and then a sharp reversal as natural gas prices dipped into the warm winter. There is not a substantial amount of difference between our German and UK quarterly growth profiles for 2023 – both contracting every quarter of the year. Perhaps one could argue that the UK is more exposed to higher mortgage rates given the shorter duration of fixed-rate mortgages in the UK. This could all make for a trendless EUR/GBP environment. Energy price guarantees could differentiate: One important determinant for UK growth in 2023 will be how the new government handles the Energy Price Guarantee. Former UK Prime Minister, Liz Truss, offered a two-year programme – subsequently cut back to six months after the UK fiscal crisis. How the UK consumer copes with having to pay market prices for energy will be key to the UK story in 2023 as well as how the EU as a whole copes with similar challenges. Currently, it seems that the ECB is concerned that the fiscal programmes in Europe are too generous and not particularly targeted – adding to the inflation challenge.    Political wild cards: To pick out a few political wild cards, the first is a re-run of the Scottish independence referendum. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has picked 19 October 2023 as the date – although such an exercise would likely have to be approved by the UK parliament. Currently, the SNP is pursuing an action through the Supreme Court to see whether London can indeed still veto the referendum. In Europe, the focus will probably be on the fiscal path taken by the new right-wing Meloni government and also the reform of the Stability and Growth Pact. Budgets submitted in late 2023 could become an issue were the rules to be tightened again.   EUR/CHF: Swiss National Bank to guide it lower   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 EUR/CHF 0.98 Bearish 0.95 0.93 0.90 0.90 0.92 Does the SNB want a stronger Swiss franc?: The Swiss National Bank this year said it made a conscious decision to allow nominal Swiss franc appreciation in light of the inflation environment. The three-month policy rate has been raised 125bp to 0.50% and the SNB says it wants to keep the real exchange rate stable. With inflation running at 3% in Switzerland versus 10% in its largest trading partner, the eurozone, the SNB in theory should be happy with something like 5-7% per annum nominal appreciation in the Swiss franc. That certainly was the story into the end of September but does not quite explain the Swiss franc's weakness over the last six weeks. Two-sided intervention: When hiking rates earlier this year the SNB also said it would be engaging in two-sided FX intervention. Ever since the start of the financial crisis in 2008, the SNB has been more familiar as a seller of the Swiss franc – including its 1.20 floor in 2011-2015. Now its strategy is changing and we read that as an objective to potentially manage the Swiss franc stronger in line with its ambitions to tighten monetary conditions. Earlier this year, we estimated that the SNB could possibly drive EUR/CHF to the 0.90 area in summer 2023 based on expected inflation differentials and the need for a stable real exchange rate. The risk environment should favour the franc: Central banks are communicating that they need to tighten rates into recession and remove the excess liquidity poured out during a series of monetary bailouts. Tighter monetary and financial conditions typically spell stormy waters for risk assets. With its still sizable current account surplus (worth 8% of GDP in the second quarter of 2022) the Swiss franc should perform well during this stage of the global economic cycle. Closer to home, the European economic cycle and the ECB discussing quantitative tightening into early 2023 will prove a challenge to peripheral eurozone debt markets and likely reinforce the franc as a eurozone hedge. EUR/NOK: Not for the faint of heart   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 EUR/NOK 10.33 Bearish 10.30 10.15 9.95 9.70 9.60 Risk sentiment remains key: The krone is not a currency for the faint of heart. It is the least liquid currency in the G10 space, making it considerably exposed to negative shifts in global risk sentiment and equity market turmoil. It is, at this stage, way too early to call for a turn in equities, and a hawkish Fed into the new year may actually mean more pain for risk assets, at least in the near term. A recovery in global sentiment should offer support to NOK in the second half of next year, but restoring market confidence in a very high-beta currency is no easy feat. Norges Bank policy: The krone’s underperformance in 2022 was exacerbated by Norges Bank effectively sterilising oil and gas profits via a large increase in daily NOK sales. In November, FX daily sales have been scaled back from NOK4.3bn to NOK3.7bn, and we think there could be some interest by NB to further ease the pressure on the currency via smaller FX sales. With recent dovish hints suggesting that the NB hiking cycle may peak at 3.0% (with most of the country on variable mortgage rates, many more rate hikes could be difficult to tolerate), allowing a stronger currency to do some inflation-fighting sounds reasonable.  Energy prices: If indeed markets enjoy a calmer environment in 2023 and NB favours a stronger currency, then NOK is left with considerable room to benefit from a still strong energy market picture for Norway. There is probably an optimal range for oil and – above all – gas prices to trade at elevated levels but not such high levels that would significantly hit risk sentiment. For TTF, this could be somewhere around 150-200 €/MWh. This a plausible forecast for next year, but the margin for error can be very large. We see EUR/NOK at 10.50 in the fourth quarter of 2023, but NOK hiccups along the way are highly likely. EUR/SEK: Eurozone exposure a drag on SEK   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 EUR/SEK 10.80 Neutral 10.85 10.70 10.60 10.40 10.50 Riksbank’s policy: The Riksbank delivered more than one hawkish surprise in 2022, including a 100bp rate hike. This appeared to be part of a front-loading operation where lifting the krona was seen as a welcome side effect. In practice, and like in many other instances in the G10, the high volatility environment meant that short-term rate differentials played a negligible role in FX. So, despite a wide EUR-SEK negative rate differential throughout 2022, SEK was unable to draw any real benefit. That differential has now evaporated, but we expect 125bp of tightening (rates at 3.0%) in Sweden versus 75bp in the eurozone, which could suggest some EUR/SEK downside room in a more stable market environment. Also, a slowdown in FX purchases by the RB, now that reserves are back to the 1H19 levels, should remove some of the pressure on SEK. European picture: Sweden is a very open economy with more than half of its exports heading to other EU countries. Our expectations are that 2023 will see a rather pronounced eurozone recession and that the energy crisis will extend into the end of next year. Barring a prolonged period of low energy prices (and essentially an improvement in the geopolitical picture) in Europe, we doubt SEK will be able to enter a sustainable appreciation trend in 2023 as sentiment in the eurozone should remain depressed. Valuation: We are not fans of the euro in 2023, which means that our EUR-crosses forecasts reflect the weaker EUR profile. We see some room for EUR/SEK to move lower throughout the year – also considering that we estimate the pair to be around 9.0% overvalued. However, the high risk of a prolonged energy crisis in the eurozone means that SEK is significantly less attractive than other pro-cyclical currencies next year. Incidentally, SEK is highly correlated to the US tech stock market, which looks particularly vulnerable at the moment. A return to 10.00 or below would likely require a significant improvement in European sentiment. USD/CAD: Loonie is an attractive pro-cyclical bet   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 USD/CAD 1.33 Bearish 1.34 1.32 1.30 1.26 1.24 Commodities and external factors: Our commodities team expects Brent to average slightly above $100/bbl next year, and Western Canadian Select around $85/bbl. Along with our expectations for higher gas prices, the overall commodity picture should prove rather supportive for the Canadian dollar in 2023. In our base-case scenario, where global risk sentiment gradually recovers but two major risk-off forces – Ukraine/Europe and China – remain, CAD would be in an advantageous position, since Canada has much more limited direct exposure to China and Europe compared to other commodity-exporting economies.  Domestic economy: If the US proves to be a relative 'safe-haven' in the global recession, therefore withstanding the downturn better than other major economies like the eurozone, this should offer a shield to Canada’s economy, which is heavily reliant on exports to the US. There is probably one major concern for the domestic economy: house prices. Canada is among the most vulnerable housing markets in the world, with price-to-income ratios around 9x in many cities (compared to 5-6x in the US). Whether we’ll see a sizeable but controlled descent or a fully-fledged housing crash will depend on the Bank of Canada and the depth of the recession. Monetary policy and valuation: It does appear that the BoC has started to consider domestic warning signals (probably, also house prices), and recently shifted to a more moderate pace of tightening. Markets are currently expecting rates to peak around 4.25/4.50% in Canada, and we tend to agree. Barring a rapid acceleration in the unemployment rate, a housing crash should be averted. It is also likely that the BoC will start cutting before the Fed in 2023. All in all, accepting the downside risks stemming from the housing market and/or a further deterioration in risk sentiment, we see room for a descent in USD/CAD to the 1.25 level towards the end of 2023. In our BEER model, CAD is around 20% undervalued in real terms. AUD/USD: Riding Beijing’s roller coaster   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 AUD/USD 0.68 Mildly Bullish 0.66 0.66 0.68 0.69 0.70 Exposure to China: The Australian dollar is a high-beta currency, and the direction of global risk sentiment will be the key driver next year. We think that a gradual recovery in sentiment will be accompanied by a still challenging energy picture, which may force investors to choose which pro-cyclical currencies to bet on. When it comes to AUD, the China factor will remain very central, as Australia has the most China-dependent export machine in the G10. Our economics team’s baseline scenario is that the real estate crisis will be the main drag on growth in China and while retail should recover on looser Covid rules, slowing global demand should hit exports. One positive development: the new Australian government is seeking a more friendly relationship with Beijing, paving the way for the removal of export curbs next year. Commodities and growth: Iron ore remains Australia’s main export (estimated at $130bn in 2022), and it is a very sensitive commodity to China's real estate sector. Our commodities team thinks a return to $100+ levels is unlikely given the worsening Chinese demand picture, but still forecasts prices to average $90/t in 2023. The second and third largest exports are oil and natural gas ($100bn combined). Here, we see clearly more upside room for prices, especially on the natural gas side. On balance, we expect the commodity picture for Australia to be rather constructive next year, which could offer a buffer to the Australian economy during the downturn. Growth in 2022 should have topped the 4% mark, but that will be much harder to achieve in 2023. The combination of higher rates, reset mortgages, a slowing housing market and possibly softening labour market should bring growth back closer to 3%. This would still be an extremely strong outcome against the backdrop of global weakness.   Monetary policy and valuation: The Reserve Bank of Australia has been one of the 'pioneers' of the dovish pivot, and a return to 50bp increases seems unlikely, as the Bank is probably monitoring the rather overvalued housing market, and the inflation picture is less concerning than in the US or in Europe. Most Australian households have short-term fixed mortgage rates, and we could see a deterioration in disposable income (especially at the start of the year). We think the RBA will be careful to avert an excessively sharp housing contraction, and we expect rates to peak at 3.60% (well below the Fed and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand) and cuts from 3Q23. This would mean a less attractive carry – and less upside risk in an optimistic scenario for global sentiment; but also less damage to the economy, which may play in AUD’s favour in our baseline scenario. Valuation highly favours AUD, as the positive terms of trade shock means that AUD/USD is 20% undervalued in real terms, according to our behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model. We have a moderately upward-sloping profile for the pair in 2023, but high sensitivity to risk sentiment and China suggests downside risks remain high. NZD/USD: Dodging the housing bullet   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 NZD/USD 0.62 Mildly Bullish 0.60 0.60 0.62 0.63 0.64 Monetary policy: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has given very few reasons to believe it is approaching a dovish pivot. Markets are currently expecting the Bank to hike well into 2023, and take rates to around 5.0%. While inflation (7.2% year-on-year) and job market tightness (unemployment at 3.3%) both remained elevated in the third quarter, there are growing concerns about the rapid downturn in the New Zealand property market, which in our view will trigger either an earlier-than-expected end to the tightening cycle or a faster pace of rate cuts in 2023. Housing troubles: The RBNZ recently published its financial stability report, where it showed relatively limited concern about households’ ability to withstand the forthcoming downturn in house prices. In its August 2022 forecasts, the RBNZ estimated that the YoY contraction in house prices will reach 11.6% in the first quarter of 2023. However, that implied an Official Cash Rate at 4.0%, so only 50bp of extra tightening from now, which seems too conservative now. House prices have fallen 7.5% from their first quarter 2022 peak so far, but the trend may well accelerate, especially given a hawkish RBNZ and the risk of slowing global demand hitting the very open New Zealand economy. External drivers and valuation: Even assuming a constructive domestic picture in the housing market and an attractive yield for the currency in 2023, external factors will determine how much NZD can draw any benefit. As for AUD, risk sentiment and China are the two central themes. The New Zealand dollar is more exposed to risk sentiment (as it is less liquid and higher-yielding) than AUD, but probably less exposed to China’s story. In particular, the real estate troubles in China may well hit Australia via the iron ore channel, while NZ exports (primarily dairy products) are much more linked to China’s Covid restrictions, which look likely to be gradually scaled back. In our base case, the two currencies should largely move in tandem next year. The real NZD/USD rate is 15% undervalued, according to our BEER model. EUR/DKK: Tricky mix of intervention and rates   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 EUR/DKK 7.44 Neutral 7.44 7.44 7.44 7.44 7.45 Central bank policy: Danmarks Nationalbank delivered FX intervention worth DKK45bn in September and October to defend the EUR/DKK peg. On 27 October, it opted for a smaller rate hike (60bp) compared to the ECB (75bp), which briefly sent EUR/DKK close to the 7.4460 February highs before rapidly falling back to 7.4380/90. We think it will be a busy year ahead for the central bank, as we expect very limited idiosyncratic EUR strength and potentially more pressure on EUR/DKK. Having now exited negative rate territory, DN has much more room to adjust the policy rate for a wider rate differential with the ECB if needed. However, with inflation running above 10% in Denmark, DN may prefer FX intervention over dovish monetary policy to support the peg. We have recently revised our EUR/DKK forecast, and expect a return to 7.4600 only in 2024. Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more  
Hungarian inflation peak is behind us

FX Daily: In Hungary, The Central Bank Left Rates Unchanged

ING Economics ING Economics 23.11.2022 10:11
Risk sentiment is still being driven by news from China, with markets now turning a blind eye to Covid restrictions and instead speculating about an easing in tech regulation. Today, it's all about the Fed minutes, as bulls hope to find signs that Powell's hawkishness was conditional on a strong CPI reading. The USD correction may be nearing its bottom In this article USD: Ready to scan the Fed minutes EUR: Only a dollar function GBP: Hunt to testify CEE: The region remains quiet Source: Shutterstock   USD: Ready to scan the Fed minutes Global risk sentiment has rebounded after absorbing the news about China’s new Covid wave. One factor driving the rally has been increasing speculation that China is loosening its regulatory grip on the tech sector, essentially offering a lifeline to tech shares which have gone through some rough months. This sharp recovery in sentiment appears a bit premature in our view. While there is no clear evidence that the regulatory crackdown has taken a decisive turn (only yesterday, it was reported that China will fine Ant Group $1bn), there is plenty of evidence that Covid restrictions are rapidly being reintroduced into many parts of the country, including Shanghai. But today, all eyes are on the FOMC minutes, the big risk event before a quieter rest of the week as the US enters the Thanksgiving holiday break. Investors will scan the minutes for indications that the “higher for longer” plan is linked to short-term dynamics in CPI releases. Expect another rally in risk assets should the minutes provide hints of conditionality of Powell’s post-meeting hawkishness to a prolonged stickiness in inflation readings, which markets are now more convinced will not materialise after the latest CPI reading. In the absence of such hints, there may not be much for risk bulls to cling on to, given that the November meeting was still a largely hawkish one and the post-meeting (and also post-CPI) Fedspeak has been rather cautious on a dovish pivot. In FX, the dollar has faced a new round of selling. We don’t exclude that this correction will run a little further, but we continue to expect a rather radical inversion in the bearish dollar trend in December as the Fed remains broadly hawkish, energy prices rise again and the global economy slows. Elsewhere in the G10, the Kiwi dollar was stronger after a 75bp rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand overnight. Policymakers signalled they will take rates to 5.5% in 3Q22, that the economy will enter a recession and that the housing market will contract by 20% (more than previously expected) from its 2021 peak. We remain doubtful that the RBNZ will ultimately deliver this much tightening and tolerate such a sharp house market contraction, but for now, it remains a clear hawkish standout in the developed market. Francesco Pesole EUR: Only a dollar function The risk rally sent EUR/USD back above 1.0300. Indeed, some improvement in China-related sentiment is a positive development for eurozone assets and the euro, but swings in the pair remain primarily a function of broader dollar moves. The eurozone’s calendar includes November’s PMI numbers today. Which are expected to remain rather depressed despite the easing in energy prices. Barring a major upside surprise, it appears unlikely that the release will generate a strong market reaction. The same should be true for ECB speakers (Luis De Guindos, Pablo Hernandez De Cos, and Mario Centeno) today. The Fed minutes are the most important event for EUR/USD today, along with further changes in the market's sentiment on China. An extension of the rally to 1.0400/1.0450 is surely possible in the coming days, but a return to parity in the next few weeks remains our base case as we enter a challenging winter for the eurozone economy. Francesco Pesole GBP: Hunt to testify PMIs will be released in the UK today, and the consensus is looking for a further deterioration in both the manufacturing and composite gauges, possibly due to the prospect of austerity measures by the new UK government. On this topic, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will testify before the Treasury Committee about his Autumn Statement this afternoon. The extended correction in the dollar is now pushing cable towards the 1.2000 gravity line. Expect some resistance around that level given the lack of strong domestic bullish drivers for the pound though. GBP’s greater sensitivity to risk sentiment compared to the euro means that further improvements in global risk sentiment can push EUR/GBP to test 0.8600 in the coming days. Francesco Pesole CEE: The region remains quiet Today, we expect a second round of monthly data from Poland, led by retail sales. Yesterday's data showed rather softer numbers. In our view, retail sales growth has slowed to low single-digit growth as wages are no longer keeping up with rising prices. We forecast growth of 3.8% year-on-year as high inflation is undermining consumers' purchasing power to such an extent that they are more cautious in their purchasing decisions. However, the attention grabber will be the POLGBs auction. Yields have moved down massively over the past month, completely changing the market picture. In the Czech Republic, we will see the Czech National Bank conference, including an opening speech by the governor, who rarely appears in public. In Hungary, the central bank left rates unchanged yesterday as expected. The National Bank of Hungary repeated its "whatever it takes" stance and the short-term focus remains on market stability until an improvement in risk perception occurs. The Hungarian forint ended slightly stronger after the press conference, but the EU story holds the main role here. Thus, we continue to wait for the European Commission's decision, which should have a positive impact on the market and move the forint closer to 400 EUR/HUF. Elsewhere, this week is more the domain of the rates market and FX remains without much enthusiasm. Impulses for bigger moves are hard to find both on the domestic and foreign side. Thus, our view hasn't changed much since Monday, and we can't expect much momentum from the region today either. The focus will thus be on the global story. Frantisek Taborsky Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Hungary's Central Bank to Maintain Base Rate at 13%, Eyes on Effective Rate Amid Forint's Performance

The Actions Of The ECB May Be A Factor Providing Some Support For The EUR/GBP Cross

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 25.11.2022 09:35
EUR/GBP stages a modest recovery from the monthly low touched on Thursday. A combination of factors underpins the shared currency and offers some support. Rising bets for additional BoE rate hikes benefit the GBP and seem to cap gains. The EUR/GBP cross gains some positive traction on Friday and reverses a part of the overnight slide to a fresh monthly low. The cross maintains its bid tone through the early European session, though seems to struggle to capitalize on the strength beyond the 0.8600 mark and remains below the 100-day SMA. The shared currency's relative outperformance could be attributed to talks of a more aggressive policy tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB). This, in turn, is seen as a key factor offering some support to the EUR/GBP cross. The ECB Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel said on Thursday that the central bank will probably need to raise rates further into restrictive territory. Schnabel added that the incoming data suggests that the room for slowing down the pace of interest rate adjustments remains limited. Adding to this, the prevalent selling bias around the US Dollar, along with an upward revision of the German Q3 GDP print, benefit the Euro and act as a tailwind for the EUR/GBP cross. According to the final reading, the Eurozone's economic powerhouse expanded by 0.4% during the three months to September and the annual growth rate in Q3 2022 stood at 1.3% vs. the 1.2% estimated. The intraday uptick, however, lacks bullish conviction and remains capped amid the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the British Pound. The recent sharp decline in the UK government bond yields represents an easing of financial conditions, which should allow the Bank of England to continue raising borrowing costs to tame inflation. This, in turn, is seen underpinning the Sterling Pound and keeping a lid on any further gains for the EUR/GBP cross, at least for the time being. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that spot prices have bottomed out and positioning for any meaningful appreciating move.
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A Bleak Outlook For The UK Economy Acts As A Tailwind For The EUR/GBP Cross

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 29.11.2022 09:39
EUR/GBP lacks any firm intraday direction and remains confined in a narrow trading band. Talks for more aggressive rate hikes by the ECB underpin the Euro and lend some support. Traders look to the flash German CPI and BoE Governor Bailey’s speech for some impetus. The EUR/GBP cross struggles to capitalize on a two-day-old recovery move from the 0.8575-0.8570 support zone and oscillates in a narrow trading band on Tuesday. The cross, however, manages to hold above the 100-day SMA and trades around mid-0.8600s during the early European session. The downside for the EUR/GBP cross remains cushioned in the wake of more hawkish comments by European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers recently, which point to a series of interest rate hikes ahead. In fact, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Monday that Eurozone inflation has not peaked yet. Adding to this, Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot noted that the risk of doing too little is clearly more pronounced than doing too much. This, along with the emergence of fresh US Dollar selling, continues to underpin the shared currency and offers support to the cross. Adding to this, a bleak outlook for the UK economy contributes to the British Pound's underperformance and acts as a tailwind for the EUR/GBP cross. This, however, is offset by expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will continue to raise borrowing costs to combat stubbornly high inflation. The mixed fundamental backdrop, in turn, is holding back traders from placing aggressive directional bets and capping the upside for the EUR/GBP cross. Market participants also seem reluctant ahead of the flash German CPI figures and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's scheduled speech on Tuesday. From a technical perspective, repeated failures to find bearish acceptance below the 100 DMA warrants some caution for bearish traders. That said, the EUR/GBP pair's inability to gain any meaningful traction makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming a near-term bottom and positioning for further gains.
Britain's Rishi Sunak And EU's Ursula Von Der Leyen Will Meet Today To Finalize The Northern Ireland Drama

EUR/GBP Cross Pair Is Likely To Remain The Latest Recovery

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 30.11.2022 10:14
EUR/GBP teases confirmation of a bullish chart pattern, reverses the previous day’s losses. 200-SMA adds to the upside filters, 0.8570 restricts short-term downside. RSI, MACD suggests further upside momentum toward the monthly high. EUR/GBP picks up bids to reverse the previous day’s losses around 0.8650 during the initial European session on Wednesday. In doing so, the cross-currency pair extends Friday’s rebound from the lowest levels since September while poking the neckline of a short-term inverse head-and-shoulders (H&S) bullish chart formation. It’s worth observing that the upward-sloping RSI (14), not overbought, joins the bullish MACD signals to suggest a clear break of the 0.8660 hurdle. Following that, the 200-SMA level of 0.8685 could probe the advances toward the theoretical target surrounding the monthly high near 0.8830. On the contrary, pullback moves remain elusive unless staying beyond the latest swing low of 0.8607. Even so, the lows marked during late October and in the last week, around 0.8570, appear a tough nut to crack for the EUR/GBP bears. In a case where the pair remains weak past 0.8570, September’s bottom near 0.8565 may act as a buffer as sellers aim for the August 19 peak of 0.8511. Overall, EUR/GBP is likely to remain firmer and can extend the latest recovery as the inverse H&S formation joins upbeat oscillators, namely the RSI and MACD. EUR/GBP: Four-hour chart Trend: Further upside expected  
FX: The Gap Versus The FX spot Rate In Poland Is Already The Largest In The CEE Region

FX: The Gap Versus The FX spot Rate In Poland Is Already The Largest In The CEE Region

ING Economics ING Economics 01.12.2022 10:02
The dollar is around 1% lower across the board after what was seen as a less hawkish speech from Fed Chair Powell softened US interest rates. A softening of China’s Covid policy is also helping emerging market currencies today. The relatively large adjustment in US rates and the dollar on Powell’s speech probably says a lot about positioning In this article USD: Overreaction? EUR: 1.05/1.06 is the risk for EUR/USD GBP: 1.22/1.23 for cable CEE: Hard to be positive on the zloty   Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaking at the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institute, in Washington USD: Overreaction? The dollar came off sharply late yesterday on comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell which signalled that December would probably be the occasion to shift to a slower pace of rate hikes. The market has been expecting the shift to a 50bp versus 75bp rate hike for a while, although it felt the need to price the terminal rate next summer some 10bp lower at 4.90%. Indeed, US yields came off quite a sharp 20bp across the curve. We are tempted to say that looks an overreaction in that while Chair Powell did acknowledge the slowing in the pace of hikes, his core message was one of stubbornly high core inflation, particularly in the core services ex-housing category. This category is largely driven by wages and an area where the Fed struggles to see labour supply improving anytime soon. Inputs into this story will come today and tomorrow in the form of the October core PCE deflator and the November jobs report, respectively. On the former, consensus expects October core PCE to decelerate to 0.3% month-on-month from 0.5%. This basket is different from the national CPI basket, where the 0.3% MoM release on 11 November triggered a huge drop in the dollar and rally in risk assets. Any upside surprise in today’s core PCE reading could see the dollar reverse overnight losses. In the bigger picture, we continue to take the view that a trade-weighted measure like DXY can hold support levels around the 105 area (or at least will not sustain any break under it). One challenge, though, is the EM picture. If we are seeing a sea-change in China’s Covid stance – e.g., a shift to home quarantine from city lockdowns, EM currencies may be due a re-rating. On the day then, the core PCE inflation data is the biggest input, and we prefer DXY to find support near 105.00. Chris Turner EUR: 1.05/1.06 is the risk for EUR/USD EUR/USD weakness in late Europe yesterday looked a function of end-month portfolio rebalancing (European equities had vastly outperformed) and it is no surprise to now see EUR/USD well above 1.04 on the sharp drop in US yields. Resistance is clearly set at the 1.0480/1.0500 area, above which we could see a spike to the 1.0600/0620 area. That is not our preferred view, but thinning December markets and seasonal dollar weakness mean that such a scenario cannot be ruled out. Bigger picture, however, weak global demand (note Korea’s poor November export data overnight) is not a good story for the pro-cyclical euro. Additionally, colder weather coming to northern Europe is starting to push gas prices higher again and keep the eurozone trade balance under pressure. We would like to think that 1.05/1.06 is as good as it gets for EUR/USD in December. Elsewhere, look out for Swiss November CPI today. We have been bearish EUR/CHF on the view that the Swiss National Bank wants a stronger nominal Swiss franc to fight inflation. That view will be challenged, of course, should inflation surprise on the downside.  Please also see Francesco Pesole’s article on the Norwegian krone. Yesterday, Norway’s central bank announced it will trim daily FX purchases from NOK 3.7bn to 1.9bn, which sent NOK rallying across the board. As discussed in the article, we see the two consecutive cuts in FX purchases as an indication of higher appetite for a stronger krone, which would help combat inflation at a time when economic woes and property market fragility may curb the appetite for monetary tightening. Chris Turner GBP: 1.22/1.23 for cable The softer dollar environment is giving cable another lift. This rally could extend to the 1.22/23 area unless either today’s US core PCE data or tomorrow’s US jobs data can put a floor back under US yields. EUR/GBP continues to hold support near 0.86 and that may well be the case into year-end. Both the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) should be hiking by 50bp in December. But we are taking the view that risk assets will come under more pressure over coming months – which will lead to renewed – if mild – sterling underperformance. Chris Turner   CEE: Hard to be positive on the zloty Today, we will see PMI numbers across the region. We expect a rebound from lows in Poland from 42.0 to 42.6 and in the Czech Republic from 41.7 to 42.7, following the trend in Germany. On the other hand, in Hungary we forecast a drop below the 50-point level. As in Poland yesterday, the GDP breakdown for the third quarter will be published today in Hungary, which was the only country in the region to surprise negatively in the flash reading (-0.4% quarter-on-quarter) a few weeks ago. Later today, the Czech Republic's state budget result for November will be published. Given the recent increase in the deficit for this year and the question marks over funding, the number will get more attention than usual. However, the start of pre-funding needs for next year through CZGBs switches in recent days indicates a better-than-expected MinFin situation. On the FX front, two main topics remain on the table in the region: the Polish zloty and the Hungarian forint. Yesterday's downside inflation surprise pushed down the interest rate differential in Poland by around 25bp, further widening the gap versus the FX spot rate, which is already the largest in the CEE region in our view. So, it is hard to be positive on the zloty, but for now, apart from any rally in the US dollar, we don't see a trigger for a correction. Until then, the zloty is likely to remain below 4.70 EUR/PLN. Meanwhile, the market seems to be running out of patience in Hungary and the normalisation of relations with the EU is not progressing as fast as expected. Although yesterday's news did not bring anything really new in our view, the forint returned to the 410 EUR/HUF range, which probably cleared the long positioning built up in recent weeks. Thus, in our view, it is still worth waiting for the final decision of the European Council in December and we expect the forint back to stronger levels. Frantisek Taborsky Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Rates and Cycles: Central Banks' Strategies in Focus Amid Steepening Impulses

Weak US Data Took US Yields Lower All Along The Curve

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 02.12.2022 08:52
Summary:  Risk sentiment fizzled after the strong from the prior day on Fed Chair Powell’s less hawkish than feared speech. That was despite softer than expected October PCE inflation data that helped US treasury yields trade to new local lows all along the curve. Today’s US November jobs report will carry a bit more weight for the treasury market, where yields have helped drag the US dollar to new lows.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) U.S. stocks fluctuated between modest gains and losses and finished the session nearly flat. Investors weighed the decline in bond yields from softer US data (see below). Eight of the eleven sectors within the S&P 500 were lower except for communication services, healthcare, and information technology which registered modest gains. Salesforce (CRM: xnys) dropped 8% after the enterprise software maker reported earnings miss, a weak outlook, and CEO resigning. Dollar General (DG:xnys) shed 7.5% on disappointing results and an outlook cut. Snowflake (SNOW:xnys) gained 7.8% on an earnings beat. Netflix (NFLX:xnas) gained 3.7% on news that the company is expanding a program to seek comments from preview audiences. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HISX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index and CSI300 Index consolidated and were modestly lower on Friday after the recent rally on signs of further easing of Covid restrictions in mainland China. Profit-taking selling weighed on Chinese property developers, with leading names dropping 4-5%. Online health platform stocks surged. Alibaba Health (00241:xhkg), JD Health (06618:xhkg), and Ping An Healthcare and Technology (01833:xhkg) gained 9-13%. USD lower still on falling treasury yields, fresh incoming data Weak US data, including a slightly softer than expected core PCE inflation reading and ISM Manufacturing survey, took US yields lower all along the curve and took the US dollar lower as well, with EURUSD trading above the psychologically key 1.0500 area this morning. The next important resistance there is perhaps the pandemic-outbreak low around 1.0636 or the 38.2% retracement of the entire sell-off from the 1.2350 top at 1.0611. The yield-sensitive USDJPY continued lower as well, nearly hitting the 135.00 level overnight after a chunky further drop yesterday and not far from its 200-day moving average at just above 134.50. An important test for US yields and the US dollar today with the November jobs data releases. Strong week for precious metals on Fed pivot speculation Gold rose above $1800 on Thursday supported by softer US data sending the dollar and yields lower, thereby underpinning speculation about a slower pace of future rate hikes. US 10-year real yields have fallen to a two-month low at 1.14% after hitting 1.82% in October while the Bloomberg Dollar Index has lost close to 8% during the past month alone. A break above resistance at $1808 may add further fuel to an ongoing sentiment change towards the metal but with ETF investors not yet engaging the importance of the dollar and yield developments remain key. Silver, supported by a firmer industrial metal sector, trades above $22.25 with the next level of interest being $23.36. Focus today on the US job report given its potential impact on the dollar and yields. Crude oil (CLF3 & LCOF3) trades up on the week Crude oil is heading for its best week in two months following another roller coaster week that saw Brent test support at $80 before finding resistance at $90. From an early lockdown scare in China on Monday, the sentiment improved ahead of Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting and the beginning of an EU embargo on Russian seaborne oil from Monday. Additional support was provided by a weaker dollar, China softened its virus approach and Washington calling for halt to further sales from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves. Ahead of the OPEC+ meeting a Bloomberg survey found that OPEC, led by the four major Gulf producers cut production by 1 million barrels a day last month. We expect the online meeting is likely to be strong on words but low on actions. Focus on today’s US job report given its potential impact on the dollar. US treasury yields edge lower still on weak US data. (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) The weak US data (see below) took US treasury yields lower all along the curve, with the 10-year benchmark within a basis point of the important 3.50% area yesterday. That level was a major pivot high posted around the time frame of the June FOMC meeting. But the weak data has not seen much steepening in the US yield curve, even if 2-year yields dropped to new lows cine early October yesterday near 4.25% as the market prices in a slightly lower Fed cycle peak next year (currently 4.87% peak priced) and steeper pace of cuts by late 2023 and especially into 2024. The US November jobs report later today offers an important test for the treasury market as the 10-year has hit this pivotal level. What is going on? Weaker US data continues to take the air out of US yields The October PCE inflation data came in softer than expected for the core month-on-month reading at +0.2% vs. +0.3% expected, while the year-on-year level of 5.0% was expected. Another soft data point was the November ISM Manufacturing survey which came in at 49.0 vs. 49.7 expected and suggesting modest contraction in US manufacturing activity for the first time since the pandemic outbreak months. The New Orders component of that survey dropped to 47.2, Prices Paid plunged further to 43.0 and Employment nudged lower to 48.4. Sterling boost yesterday on hopes for Northern Ireland deal EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said that Britain and the EU said that the latest talks with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak were “encouraging” and that she is “very confident” a solution is possible if the UK government is on board, with Sunak seen as motivated to iron out a deal with a more pragmatic approach to the issue than former Prime Ministers Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. EURGBP briefly touched a multi-month low yesterday below 0.8560 and traded within 10 pips of the the 200-day moving average before rebounding overnight. Blackstone limits withdrawals from large property fund The company said it would limit how much the wealthy individual investors in its $69 billion real estate fund can withdraw funds to 2% of the net asset value of the fund monthly and 5% quarterly. Real estate is a notoriously illiquid asset. What are we watching next? US November Jobs report on tap The November jobs data is up today, theoretically expected to show payrolls growth of +200k, but with the market perhaps leaning a bit lower after the softest ADP private payrolls growth number in more than 20 months. The Unemployment Rate is seen steady at 3.7%, and Average Hourly Earnings are anticipated to rise +0.3% month-on-month and +4.6% year-on-year after the October data point at 4.7% YoY was the lowest year-on-year reading in just over a year. The Atlanta Fed’s median wage tracker, meanwhile, has shown entirely different levels of earnings growth, with +6.4% in October and 6.7% in both of the prior two months. Earnings to watch Earnings next week are a mish-mash of companies, and include high-end homebuilder Toll Brothers on Tuesday, as it will be interesting to hear their outlook on the new home market after the enormous surge in US mortgage rates and collapse in home sales activity. Broadcom (AVGO: xnas) is the market cap giant of the week to report, with the CEO of the company having said that the semiconductor market will not be affected by the US’ new export restrictions on technology to China. Tuesday:  MongoDB, AutoZone, Toll Brothers, Ferguson Wednesday: Brown Forman, Campbell Soup, GameStop Thursday: Broadcom, Costco, Lululemon, Chewy Friday: Oracle Corp, Li Auto Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 1330 – Canada Nov. Employment Change / Unemployment Rate 1330 – US Nov. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 1330 – US Nov. Unemployment Rate 1330 – US Nov. Average Hourly Earnings 1415 – US Fed’s Barkin (non-voter) to speak 1900 – Us Fed’s Evans (voter 2023) to speak Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-dec-2-202-02122022
Hungary's Central Bank to Maintain Base Rate at 13%, Eyes on Effective Rate Amid Forint's Performance

The EUR/GBP Pair Is Displaying A Sideways Auction Profile

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 13.12.2022 09:40
EUR/GBP is auctioning below 0.8600 as investors await UK Employment data. Increment in households’ earnings data could be a double-edged sword for the UK economy. The ECB is expected to hike its interest rates by 50 bps to 2.50%. The EUR/GBP pair is displaying back-and-forth moves marginally below the crucial hurdle of 0.8600 in the early European session. The cross is displaying a sideways auction profile as investors are awaiting the release of the United Kingdom Employment data. The asset remained topsy-turvy on Monday despite upbeat UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. The monthly GDP data (October) reported an expansion of 0.5% while the street was expecting a contraction of 0.1%. Also, Industrial and Manufacturing Production data remained better than anticipation but were contracted on an annual basis for October month. Now, investors have shifted their focus to the UK Employment data. As per the projections, the jobless claims gamut will witness a decline of 13.3K. While the quarterly Unemployment Rate (October) is seen higher at 3.7% against the former release of 3.6%. Apart from that, Quarterly Average Earnings data excluding Bonuses is seen higher at 5.9% vs. the former release of 5.7%. An increment in households’ earnings could be a double-edged sword. No doubt, higher earnings will delight households in offsetting inflation adjusted-payouts but will also increase retail demand, which will escalate inflation further. This week, the interest rate policy by the Bank of England (BOE) will hog the limelight. Analysts from Danske Bank are expecting a 50 basis point (bps) rate hike announcement.  On the Eurozone front, investors are awaiting a monetary policy announcement from the European Central Bank (ECB), which is scheduled for Thursday. Analysts at Rabobank think that the ECB is likely to raise the policy rate by 50 basis points in December but note that they are not fully discounting the possibility of a 75 bps hike. They have forecasted a terminal rate of 3%.
Market Focus: European Data Releases, ECB Survey, US FOMC Minutes, and UK Bond Supply

The Kiwi (NZD) Saw A Sharp Further Run To The Downside Yesterday, The EUR/GBP Pair Tests The Highs

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 23.12.2022 14:26
Summary:  After Q3 GDP data revision that reminds us that the UK is in the vanguard for economies lurching into recession, sterling has lurched into a new slide and is even threatening a break down versus the euro as EURGBP tests the highs since the Truss-Kwarteng mini-budget sterling wipeout. Elsewhere, a plunge in the kiwi is likely down to position squaring and rebalancing ahead of year end after a remarkable recent run. Today's Special Edition Saxo Market Call podcast: Investors' Wish List for 2023.  FX Trading focus: Sterling stumbles after weak GDP, Kiwi longs take profit. Last important US data point of the year up today: November PCE inflation. The latest Q3 UK GDP revisions suggest the economy is weakening even more quickly than previously thought last quarter, as growth was revised down to -0.3% QoQ from -0.2% previously, and the Private Consumption figures was revised to -1.1% QoQ vs. -0.5% previously. The combination of a Bank of England that wants to soft-pedal further tightening and the promises of fiscal austerity from the Sunak-Hunt duo are a powerful negative for sterling as we look ahead into the New Year, which will likely bring relative UK economic weakness even if our thoughts that  recession fears for next year globally are over-baked for the first two and even three quarters. The FX fundamentals are entirely the opposite for the euro, as the ECB attempts a maximum hawkish stance as it recognizes the risks that the fiscal impulse can keep inflationary pressures elevated from here. The two-year yield spread is close to its highest since October of last year. Chart: EURGBPA weak GDP revision yesterday didn’t appear to be the proximate trigger for sterling’s latest lurch lower, but does remind us of the relative weakness of the UK outlook and the combination of a heel-dragging BoE (on further tightening) and austere fiscal picture could set up further declines in the weeks and months. Worth noting that the key EURGBP is pushing on the top side of the range established since the volatile days surrounding the Truss-Kwarteng mini-budget announcement. A hold above 0.8800 could lead to a test of the higher end of the range since the 2016 Brexit vote above 0.9200. A higher euro is straightforward if ECB maintains its hawkish stance as the EU fiscal impulse is far stronger from here. The wildcard for the euro side of the equation is the usual existential one of peripheral spreads and whether these stay orderly if yields resume their rise next year. Source: Saxo Group Elsewhere, the kiwi saw a sharp further run to the downside yesterday with no proximate identifiable trigger. AUDNZD traded all the way to 1.0719 before backing off to below 1.0650 at one point this morning. I suspect that this was an extension of the position squaring after a the remarkable run higher in the kiwi over the last two months, driven both by relative RBNZ hawkishness, but in particular by RBA (and arguably BoC), sparking heavy flows in AUDNZD just after the pair had traded almost to a decade high on hopes for a Chinese reopening boosting the outlook for Australia. The current reality on the ground in China is even worse than during the zero Covid tolerance days, but we know that the Arguably, recent record low consumer confidence readings in New Zealand suggest that the RBNZ will need to climb down from its hawkishness, at least in relative terms to its peers, going into next year. After an incredible slide in AUDNZD and rally in NZDCAD, I suspect we will see powerful mean reversion in the coming three months in those pairs. It feels like USD traders have checked out for this year. Hard to tell if today’s US November PCE inflation data can generate any excitement on a soft print after the soft CPI print earlier this month generated a lot of fuss that quickly faded on the very same day. A more interesting development would be a slightly hot core set of PCE core readings than expected today (the month-on-month core reading expected at +0.2% and year-on-year expected to have decelerated sharply to 4.6% from 5.0% in October. EURUSD has traded within a 100-pip range for more than a week and the 1-month implied volatility has recently plumbed lows (around 7.50%) not seen since the beginning of this year and would probably be lower still had not the Bank of Japan roiled markets this week. But the USD will have a hard time ignoring any further slide in risk sentiment to close out the year. And the beginning of the calendar year is nearly always interesting for new themes and often for demarcating key highs or lows for the year. Consider the following from the last six years of the EURUSD trading history: 2022: High for the year in EURUSD posted in February, but that high was only a few pips above the 1.1483 high water mark of January. Low for year posted in September 2021: High for the year was in January, on the third trading day of the year, low in late November 2020: Exceptional pandemic year, low for year posted in March, high in December 2019: High for quite year posted on January 10, low on October 1 2018: High for year posted in February, but highest daily close not above intraday high in January. Low posted in November 2017: Low for year in January, high in September (December high less than a figure from September high water mark) Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.The JPY still sits with a strong positive reading, but has yet to “trend” after the huge one-day move this week – a few more days of lack of movement and questions marks would begin to flourish around its status. Elsewhere, note the NZD going full circle and now broadly outright weak after its status as king of the G10 as recently as less than two weeks ago. Gold posted a sharp reversal yesterday. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Note that the weakness in risk sensitive currencies like SEK, NZD, AUD & GBP are seeing those edging into a downtrend versus the US dollar – worth watching for a deepening of these moves if risk assets continue south into the New Year. The EURCHF bears watching if the pair can take out 0.9900-0.9950 as currently the pair is caught in a very tight range. NZD is rolling over in many pairings. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights 1330 – Canada Oct. GDP 1330 – US Nov. PCE Inflation 1330 – US Nov. Flash Durable Goods Orders 1500 – US Dec. Final University of Michigan Confidence   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/fx-update-sterling-and-kiwi-stumble-as-year-winds-down-23122022
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The EUR/GBP Pair Is Likely To Witness More Inaction

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 29.12.2022 09:12
EUR/GBP struggles to extend pullback from 11-week high. US Treasury yields retreat from three-week top, EU bond coupons grind near 11-year high but Gilts stay depressed. Geopolitical fears from Russia join China Covid woes but lack of market participation, absence of major data bore momentum traders. EUR/GBP remains sidelined around 0.8825, after reversing from a nearly two-month high the previous day, as traders seek more clues amid the market’s indecision headline into Thursday’s London open. Even so, the cross-currency pair remains pressured as the geopolitical concerns surrounding Russia and fears of economic slowdown propel the Eurozone Treasury bond yields while the UK’s Gilts dropped to the lost levels for seven weeks. Russia’s rejection of peace with Ukraine unless it accepts the treaty allowing additional territories joins an escalated war in the city of Kherson to weigh on the sentiment. On the same line could be the major nations’ notification to require the Covid tests for Chinese travelers amid doubts over Beijing’s reporting of data and a hidden jump in the virus numbers. It’s worth noting, however, the comparatively stronger hawkish bias of the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers versus the Bank of England (BOE) decision-makers challenge the EUR/GBP bears. Even so, the chatters surrounding the bloc’s recession seem to have gained more attention of late, which in turn should have recalled the bears the previous day. Against this backdrop, the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped 2.8 basis points to 3.86% by the press time, after rising the most since October 19 the previous day. That said, the Eurozone 10-year Treasury bond yields rose to the highest levels since July 2011 before retreating to 2.51% while the UK’s 10-year Gilt coupons dropped for the third consecutive day to refresh multi-day low. Looking forward, the EUR/GBP is likely to witness more inaction but the recent escalation in the Russia-Ukraine fight and the economic slowdown fears surrounding the bloc could weigh on the prices. Technical analysis Despite the failure to cross the 0.8855-65 resistance zone, comprising multiple levels marked since late September, EUR/GBP remains on the bear’s radar unless breaking the 200-DMA support, close to 0.8575 at the latest.
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USD/JPY Pair Bounced Off Support Area, GBP/USD Pair Broke Bearish Out Of Its Rising Wedge

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 29.12.2022 12:10
Summary:  USDJPY bounced from strong support but still in a down trend. The pair needs to break bullish out of falling channel for 140EURGBP testing key resistance at 0.8867. Upside potential to 0.92GBPUSD broken out of rising wedge but sellers have failed to take control. 1.19 support is key USDJPY bounced off support area 131.49-130.38 and the lower trendline in the falling channel like pattern. Divergence on RSI indicates that could have been the lows for now. There is still negative sentiment however, but if USDJPY breaks above the upper falling trend and back above 200 daily SMA there could be short-term upside momentum to 140-141.25.If USDJPY slides back and closes below 130.38 it is likely to fuel a sell-off down to around 126.35 . That scenario is likely to unfold if RSI also breaks below its lower rising trendline.   All charts and data : Saxo Group EURGBP has at first attempt been rejected at the resistance at around 0.8867. A close above could move the pair for 0.92 i.e., same distance a wide sideways consolidation area illustrated by the vertical arrows.However, if EURGBP slides back below 0.8754 it could stay range bound for quite some time.RSI is showing positive sentiment however and all Simple Moving Averages (SMA) are rising i.e., showing underlying bullish sentiment indicating we are to see higher levels in EURGBP. GBPUSD broke bearish out of its rising wedge like pattern now hovering around the 200 daily SMA. Bears don’t seem to be able to push the pair lower. RSI is still showing positive sentiment and there is no divergence indicating we could see a GBPUSD moving higher and have another attempt reaching resistance 1.2667.If sellers succeed in pushing GBPUSD below 1.19 that could change and give them more energy to push GBPUSD down to around 1.1629. Medium-term pictureGBPUSD got rejected at the 55 weekly SMA which is dropping sharply and has not managed to close a week above resistance at 1.2293. Weekly RSI is still showing negative sentiment indicating GBPUSD bounce from September trough has run its course and lower levels is in the cards. GBPUSD could slide back down to around 1.14For GBPUSD to gain further upside a weekly close above 1.2293 is needed combined with RSI closing above 60 threshold.       RSI divergence explained: When  price is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and an weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend Source: Technical Update - USDJPY, EURGBP & GBPUSD | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
The GBP/USD Pair Did Not Reach The Nearest Target Level Of 1.2259

FX: The Fall In The Pound Also Saw Egyptian Hard Currency Foreign Debt Rally

ING Economics ING Economics 05.01.2023 10:49
The December FOMC minutes caused barely a ripple in the FX market. Instead, investors are left to interpret China's battle with Covid and plunging energy prices. The sharp fall in natural gas prices is a boon to European energy importers, but a Fed still concerned with tight labour markets suggests the European FX recovery against the dollar is limited USD: FOMC minutes barely move the needle Last night's release of FOMC minutes could have been perceived as slightly hawkish, yet FX and interest rate markets barely budged. At the heart of the 2023 story is the risk management trade-off of the Federal Reserve under-appreciating sticky inflation versus over-tightening and delivering weaker-than-needed growth. For the time being, the Fed is still more concerned by the former and plans ongoing rate increases. In practice, we think that means another 50bp hike from the Fed in February (the market seems to prefer 25bp hikes in February and March) and then rate cuts from the third quarter onwards. For rate markets the battle this year seems to be whether inflation will allow the Fed to deliver the roughly 50bp of easing expected in the second half of the year. For today's session, the focus will be on the December ADP jobs data, where a +150k number is expected after last month's 127k rise. Currently, the consensus expects tomorrow's December nonfarm jobs reading at +200k. Yesterday we highlighted the importance of the JOLTS job opening data. The December figure showed a surprise rise, which will fan Fed fears of the US labour market staying tight. A firm ADP number today could also deliver a little support to US yields and the dollar. Away from the Fed story, the market's early year focus is on China's Covid battle and slumping energy prices. Commodity markets - always very sensitive to the China demand story - are taking a cautious approach here. In other words, they are not prepared to look through (presumably) surging infections towards the second half growth story. Equally the China story, in addition to very warm weather, is weighing on energy prices where both oil and gas are plunging. Indeed, European natural gas now trades at a discount to Asian natural gas and warns that LNG shipments will be re-routed to Asia. For the time being this fall in natural gas is prompting a re-assessment of European growth prospects and supporting European FX - especially CE4 currencies. That may well remain the near-term trend unless US price data is sufficient to re-price the Fed tightening cycle to the 5.50% area and lift the dollar. As above, ADP will be key for the dollar today. A subdued DXY range well within 104-105 looks likely. Chris Turner EUR: A welcome reprieve from energy The sharp fall in energy prices is being welcomed across Europe. That is already showing up in softer-than-expected German and French inflation data. Today the focus will be on Italian inflation data ahead of tomorrow's eurozone December CPI release, currently expected at 9.5% year-on-year. As discussed yesterday, the sharp fall in natural gas is generating even further improvement in the euro's terms of trade and is a euro positive. However, EUR/USD may struggle to make further upside gains until key event risks have been surmounted such as tomorrow's December US jobs release and next Thursday's US December CPI reading. Expect EUR/USD to continue trading in a 1.0580-1.0640 range, though we would probably say the upside risks are greater given developments in the energy story and the re-rating underway of European equities. Elsewhere, the National Bank of Poland left rates unchanged at 6.75% yesterday. Our team feels that sticky inflation will not allow an easing cycle to materialise in the second half of this year, however. Look out for the press conference from NBP Governor Adam Glapinski at 15CET today. 7.5% implied yields for the zloty and a rally in European bond markets amid lower energy prices can probably keep EUR/PLN gently offered for the time being. Chris Turner GBP: PM Sunak's new targets The UK Conservative government came out on the offensive yesterday with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announcing five strategic targets for this year, among which were halving inflation, stabilising debt to GDP and ensuring a return to growth. The reduction in inflation may be the most attainable of these three and the one over which the government has the least control.  On the subject of inflation, today sees the 1030CET release of the Bank of England's Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey. This looks at inflation expectations in the business sector. The November survey, published in early December, saw one-year inflation expectations drop to 7.2% from 7.6% YoY. Presumably, this should fall again in today's survey. We still think the market is over-pricing the BoE tightening cycle at a peak near 4.50% (+100bp) in August this year. But that pricing has been resolute. EUR/GBP should continue in a 0.8800-0.8850 range for the time being, while cable can loiter well within this week's 1.19-1.21 range. Chris Turner EGP: Another devaluation in the Egyptian pound The Egyptian pound (EGP) sold off another 6-7% yesterday. This is a heavily managed exchange rate and the decline is taken as a controlled move by local authorities. The fall in the pound also saw Egyptian hard currency foreign debt rally on the view that authorities were conforming to IMF conditionality of a flexible exchange rate in return for the $3bn IMF facility agreed in October. The legacy of the 2022 inflation and interest rate shock to emerging markets continues to play out in Africa, where sovereign CDS premia remain among the highest in the world. Among those sovereign credits under pressure is Nigeria, which also has a heavily managed exchange rate. The Nigerian naira was allowed to depreciate 4% in December, but with implied yields still at 50% - expecting further naira depreciation - we can only think that lower energy prices will be heaping more pressure on this currency. Those forwards price USD/NGN at 500 in three months' time - which certainly looks to be the direction of travel. Chris Turner Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more  
Hang Seng Index Plummets -2% Amid Weak China Data, Short-Term Trend Intact

The EUR/GBP Pair Sticks To Its Modest Intraday Gains

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 10.01.2023 09:57
EUR/GBP attracts fresh buying on Tuesday and recovers further from over a two-week low. Dovish BoE expectations weigh on the British Pound and remain supportive of the move. The recent hawkish ECB rhetoric underpins the Euro and supports prospects for further gains. The EUR/GBP cross regains positive traction following an early dip to sub-0.8800 levels and moves away from over a two-week low touched the previous day. The cross sticks to its modest intraday gains through the early European session and is currently placed near the top end of its daily range, around the 0.8825-0.8835 region. The British Pound's relative underperformance comes amid a bleak outlook for the UK economy, which has been fueling expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) is nearing the end of the current rate-hiking cycle. Apart from this, a modest pickup in the US Dollar demand is seen weighing on the Sterling and lending some support to the EUR/GBP cross. The shared currency, on the other hand, benefits from hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) rhetoric. In fact, ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said last Thursday that it would be desirable to reach the right terminal rate by next summer. Furthermore, ECB expects wage growth to be very strong over the next few quarters. In the absence of any major market-moving economic releases, either from the UK or the Eurozone, the aforementioned bullish fundamental backdrop supports prospects for additional gains. That said, any subsequent move up might continue to confront stiff resistance and is more likely to remain capped near the 0.8865-0.8875 heavy supply zone.  
Hang Seng Index Plummets -2% Amid Weak China Data, Short-Term Trend Intact

The Bank Of England (BoE) Is Coming To The End Of The Current Cycle Of Interest Rate Increases And Support The EUR/GBP Rate

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 13.01.2023 09:53
EUR/GBP struggles to gain any meaningful traction and oscillates in a narrow band on Friday. A bleak outlook for the UK economy undermines the Sterling and continues to lend support. The recent hawkish ECB rhetoric underpins the Euro and supports prospects for further gains. The EUR/GBP cross consolidates its recent gains to the highest level since September 29 touched earlier this Friday and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses through the early European session. The cross remains below the 0.8900 round-figure mark following the release of the UK macro data, though seems poised to prolong the uptrend witnessed since the beginning of this week. The UK Office for National Statistics reported that the economy expanded a modest 0.1% in November as compared to estimates for a 0.2% contraction. This, however, marked a notable slowdown from the 0.5% growth recorded in October. Moreover, weaker-than-expected UK industrial and manufacturing production data adds to the bleak outlook for the UK economy, which has been fueling speculations that the Bank of England (BoE) is nearing the end of the current rate-hiking cycle. This, in turn, could undermine the British Pound and lend some support to the EUR/GBP cross. The shared currency, on the other hand, continues to draw support from more hawkish signals from the European Central Bank (ECB). In fact, several ECB officials spoke this week and confirmed that they will have to raise interest rates further in the coming months to tame inflation. That said, a modest US Dollar recovery keeps a lid on the Euro and holds back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the EUR/GBP cross. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside. Read next: The New Disney Drama: Disney Is Opposing Activist-Investor Nelson Peltz| FXMAG.COM Even from a technical perspective, the overnight convincing breakout through the 0.8865-0.8875 supply zone supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move. Some follow-through buying beyond the 0.8900 round figure will reaffirm the positive outlook and allow the EUR/GBP cross to reclaim the 0.9000 psychological mark.
Hang Seng Index Plummets -2% Amid Weak China Data, Short-Term Trend Intact

Forex: The EUR/GBP Pair May Struggle To Trade Sustainably, The Reserve Bank Of Australia's Policy Remains An Open Question

ING Economics ING Economics 18.01.2023 09:55
The Bank of Japan defied hawkish speculation and held policy steady this morning, sending the yen lower. Some market confusion was also generated by a headline suggesting the European Central Bank is mulling slower rate hikes: clarifications may come from Davos by the end of the week, and the euro may recover. In the US, the data calendar picks up again The Bank of Japan in Tokyo USD: US data back in focus An exceptionally grim Empire Manufacturing reading for January has been the only noteworthy data release out of the US so far this week, and the dollar has continued to be a bystander as developments in Japan, Europe and China drive most market moves. Today, retail sales, PPI, industrial production and TIC flows data will be in focus. The market's scrutiny over the US economic outlook has grown exponentially since the ISM service report pointed to an imminent recession: expect more pain for the dollar should fresh signs of a slowdown emerge now that the US data calendar is picking up again. The Fed’s Raphael Bostic, Patrick Harker and Lorie Logan are set to speak today. The fall in the yen after the BoJ announcement (more details in the JPY section below) is offering some relief to the dollar this morning. However, we suspect this may only prove temporary and downside risks into the 101-102 area still prevail in the very near term. After all, the global environment continues to be rather benign for the ongoing rerouting of flows into emerging markets and high-beta currencies. The growing feeling that China may face a reality check on the sustainability of looser Covid rules may be contributing to halting CNY gains, but recent data gave reasons for optimism on Chinese growth, as noted by our colleague Iris Pang here. We are also approaching the lengthy Chinese New Year holiday season, which may be keeping some investors on hold before moving significantly into Chinese assets. Our commodities strategists have revised their forecasts for iron ore and copper prices higher on the back of China’s reopening. A demand-driven improvement in the metal price outlook is an ideal scenario for commodity currencies: the Australian dollar is a good example here, also considering the tentative conciliatory steps in Sino-Australian diplomatic relations. Indeed, the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy remains an open question: the resilience of inflation poses risks to our conservative call for only two more 25bp hikes before the end of the hiking cycle, and could add some more steam to the AUD rally. A 0.70-0.72 range could easily become the norm for AUD/USD in the next few weeks. Francesco Pesole EUR: Conflicting news Yesterday was a day of conflicting headlines for the euro. In a long interview to the Financial Times, Chief Economist Philip Lane offered elaborate reasoning to support the ECB’s recent hawkish rhetoric. However, later in the day, a Bloomberg report cited some ECB officials saying that Governing Council members are actually considering a slower pace (25bp) of tightening. EUR/USD dropped below 1.08 on the news. It does seem premature for the ECB to unwind its hawkish narrative just yet, and we would not be surprised to see some remarks aimed at “mitigating” yesterday’s dovish headline. Francois Villeroy (today) and President Christine Lagarde (tomorrow) have a chance to do so in Davos. Either way, the overall environment looks likely to stay largely supportive for EUR/USD and a return to 1.0850-1.0900 seems possible by the end of this week. Other conflicting headlines came from Germany. Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he’s sure that Germany will avoid a recession, while his finance minister suggested in a previous interview that there will indeed be a recession, but it should be very mild. The ZEW expectation survey (which spiked into positive territory yesterday) surely seemed to favour more optimism on the German outlook, and undoubtedly fed into the divergence in growth narratives between the eurozone (increasingly upbeat) and the US (increasingly downbeat). This ultimately makes us believe EUR/USD can stay mostly supported for now. Francesco Pesole GBP: Inflation matches expectations December CPI numbers were released in the UK this morning and largely matched consensus expectations. Headline inflation decelerated from 10.7% to 10.5%, while the core rate held at 6.3%. With the peak apparently past us, we could see headline inflation return to 6% in the summer and 3.5-4% by year-end, according to our economists. It’s important to note that core services jumped from 6.4% to 6.8%, a development that the BoE should particularly take into consideration, and when added to yesterday’s wage data should tilt the balance towards a 50bp hike in February. EUR/GBP is back to pre-Christmas – sub-0.8800 levels – thanks to some idiosyncratic EUR underperformance and a supported pound. As discussed in the euro section above, ECB-related weakness in the euro may not last long, and EUR/GBP may struggle to trade sustainably below 0.8800 for now – also given the lack of strong bullish forces in the pound. Francesco Pesole JPY: No hawkish surprise by the BoJ The Bank of Japan’s decision to leave its policy tools unchanged has seen USD/JPY live up to its pricing as one of the most volatile pairs in the G10 space. We expect that to continue. The big correction higher in USD/JPY may endure for a little while. This is because the BoJ’s forecasts for CPI ex-food remain below 2% for FY23 and FY24 and could make the case for the new BoJ governor in April to continue with the current ultra-loose policy. Yet USD/JPY is down at 130 on both the BoJ and the dollar story. We look for a broadly weaker dollar – especially in the second quarter when US core inflation should fall more quickly. This means USD/JPY should again come under pressure from the dollar side. And plenty of speculation over a BoJ policy shift in April should limit USD/JPY upside too. We see this correction stalling in the 132.50/133.00 area (outside risk to 135), with a bias to 126/128 for the end of the first quarter. Later in the year USD/JPY will probably be trading under 125. Chris Turner Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more  
Despite The Improvement In The Outlook Due To Falling Energy Prices, The Economic Environment In Britain Remains Difficult

Yields On JGB's Fell Back Sharply, Markets May Expect To See Another 50bps Rate Hike From The Bank Of England

Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 18.01.2023 11:34
Yesterday saw another positive session for European markets, although the FTSE100 underperformed despite hitting a new 4 year high. US markets returned from their long weekend break with a choppy and somewhat mixed session, with the Dow and S&P500 struggling while the Nasdaq 100 finished slightly higher, as various earnings announcements painted a mixed picture of the US economy. Bond yields also chopped between negative and positive territory as yields ended the day little changed. BoJ tweaks bond program Asia markets have spent the day still digesting yesterday's economic numbers from China, as well as today's Bank of Japan rate decision. The Japanese yen has seen some decent gains over the past few weeks, with those gains accelerating after the Bank of Japan caught markets by surprise last month by widening the band of its yield curve control to between -0.5% and +0.5%, from +/-0.25%. It would appear that with current governor Kuroda set to leave in April that the BoJ wanted to start seeding the ground for a possible shift in the coming months, however as with everything related to monetary policy markets have already started to front run any possible change.. The 10-year JGB has consistently tested above the upper bound of the 0.5% in the past few days testing the central banks resolve in the process. The central bank has been consistent in maintaining that they aren't in any rush to make major adjustments to its yield curve control policy yet, however events appear to have overtaken them, as volatility has increased. The Bank of Japan's challenge today has been to try and reset market expectations, as well as try to avoid a further rapid appreciation in the yen, in the same way they wanted to manage the declines in their currency over the past few months. Suffice it to say they appear to have succeeded, pushing back on the recent moves that have pushed the yen higher. This morning the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged, which wasn't a surprise, but they also announced they would continue large scale bond buying and be more flexible about duration in order to keep policy settings loose. Yields on JGB's fell back sharply from the 0.5% upper bound in the wake of the announcement. Today's pushback or reset whatever you want to call it, shouldn't have been too much of a surprise given recent yen moves. Japanese central bank officials have always been particularly sensitive to sharp short term moves in either direction where the yen is concerned in the same way they were about recent yen weakness. The direction of the move is less of a concern rather than the speed of it, and in slowing the yen move lower the BoJ is merely resetting market expectations about future policy change, with the US dollar rising back above 130.00 UK inflation set to slip back in December After the peak of 11.1% in October, headline CPI fell back to 10.7% in November in a welcome sign that we could well be past the peak, when it comes to price rises.Recent falls in oil and gas prices are also likely to start to feed into the underlying numbers, while PPI inflation has also been falling in recent months, though given problems with the PPI calculations we haven't had clear visibility on that in the past couple of months, as the ONS continues to review how that is calculated. Today's December inflation numbers are expected to show that inflationary pressures continue to subside, but are only expected to fall modestly to 10.5%, with core prices also still high at 6.2%. We already know that food price inflation is trending in the mid-teens, which means that headline CPI is expected to remain above 10% for a while. It's also important to remember that RPI is even higher. With average wage growth trending at 6.4% and unemployment still low, the gap between wages and inflation is still quite wide, although it is narrowing from both directions. This probably means we can expect to see another 50bps rate hike from the Bank of England when it meets in just over 2 weeks' time, although any decision is unlikely to be unanimous, given the 3-way split last time. Headline CPI in the EU is also expected to be confirmed at 9.2% in December with core prices at 5.2%. EUR/USD – has struggled to overcome the 1.0870 area, prompting a fall to 1.0780. Could see a deeper fall towards 1.0720. The key resistance sits at 1.0950 which is a 50% retracement of the move from the 2021 highs to last year's lows at 0.9536. A move through 1.0950 opens up a move towards 1.1110. GBP/USD – ran out of steam at 1.2300 yesterday, with the risk that the move above 1.2000 level is running out of steam, despite the decent rebound from the 1.1830/35 area. The next big resistance lies at the 1.2350 area. We need to hold above the 1.2000 area for further gains to unfold. EUR/GBP – the failure at the 3-month highs at 0.8895 this week has seen a drift back towards last week's low at 0.8770/80. Below 0.8770/80 retargets the 0.8720 area. USD/JPY – has recovered off 127.20 area this week, just shy of the 126.50 area which is the 50% retracement of the up move from 101.18 to the highs at 151.95. Has squeezed back above the 130.00 area and could extend back through 132.60 on towards 134.80 without undermining the downward momentum. FTSE100 is expected to open 10 points lower at 7,841 DAX is expected to open 32 points higher at 15,219 CAC40 is expected to open 11 points higher at 7,088 Email: marketcomment@cmcmarkets.comFollow CMC Markets on Twitter: @cmcmarketsFollow Michael Hewson (Chief Market Analyst) on Twitter: @mhewson_CMC
ECB's Tenth Consecutive Rate Hike: The Final Move in the Current Cycle

The Fed Needed To Get Rates Above 5% Sooner Rather Than Later

Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 19.01.2023 13:34
Yesterday saw another broadly positive session for European markets, with the FTSE100 once again underperforming, after UK inflation data showed itself to be much stickier than was anticipated, putting upward pressure on the pound in the process.   US markets initially started the day on the front foot until a double punch of weak data saw yields slide sharply on both the short and long end, prompting concerns that US economic activity was being impacted by the lagging effects of multiple rate hikes.   This concern about the economic outlook, along with announcements from the likes of Amazon and Microsoft about job losses, saw US markets roll over after European markets had closed, closing sharply lower, as once again the S&P500 failed above the 4,000 level.   Yesterday's weakness came as a result of concerns about the health of the US consumer. After a strong performance throughout most of 2022, consumer spending appears to have run out of steam with November and December retail sales declining 1% and 1.1% respectively. US PPI for December also saw a lower-than-expected rise of 6.2%, a sharp drop from the 7.4% seen in November.   The Fed Beige Book added little to the picture when it came to how the US economy is doing, apart from an acknowledgement that price pressures are starting to slow, however St. Louis Fed President James Bullard added to the uncertainty by insisting that the Fed needed to get rates above 5% sooner rather than later. This view conflicts with the prevailing market narrative of a 25bps hike next month, as concerns rise that the Fed could well be hiking into a potential recession.   These economic concerns also translated into crude oil prices which having hit their highest levels since the beginning of December early on the day, promptly reversed course to close the day sharply lower.   One thing in the favour of the US economy in the face of disappointing economic reports is a resilient labour market, with today's weekly jobless claims expected to see a modest rise from 205k to 214k.   We also have housing starts and building permits data for December, with the recent cold weather not expected to offer much hope of a respite here.   Last night's weaker US close looks set to translate into a lower European open.   The US dollar had a mixed day slipping to a marginal 8 month low against the euro before recovering, while against the Japanese yen we saw a 400-point range, after the Bank of Japan pushed back on market expectations of further measures to tweak its monetary policy settings around yield curve control.   Governor Kuroda went on to say that a further widening of the YCC band wasn't needed yet, as he looked to finesse the central banks messaging around its next policy move. The BoJ's biggest problem is that yesterday's events only delay the inevitable, with national CPI for December expected to reach a 42 year high of 4% later today.   With the Fed closer to the end of its rate hiking cycle, and the Bank of Japan yet to start its tightening regime, the line of least resistance for USD/JPY is likely to be a move towards 120 and possibly lower in the coming weeks.   EUR/USD – made a marginal new high of 1.0887 yesterday, before sliding back again, as the market struggles for direction. Could see a deeper fall towards 1.0720. The key resistance sits at 1.0950 which is a 50% retracement of the move from the 2021 highs to last year's lows at 0.9536. A move through 1.0950 opens up a move towards 1.1110.   GBP/USD – ran out of steam just shy of the December peaks at 1.2440. Above 1.2450 could see a move towards 1.2600. We need to hold above the 1.2000 area for further gains to unfold or risk a return to 1.1830.   EUR/GBP – the failure at the 3-month highs at 0.8895 this week has seen a move below last week's low at 0.8770/80, with the risk we could see a move towards the 0.8720 area, and 50- and 100-day SMA. The next support below 0.8720 targets 0.8680.   USD/JPY – the failure to hold onto the gains above 130.00 yesterday suggests the prospect of further weakness and a move towards the 126.50 area which is the 50% retracement of the up move from 101.18 to the highs at 151.95. Below 126.50 targets the 120.60 area.   FTSE100 is expected to open 38 points lower at 7,792   DAX is expected to open 60 points lower at 15,121   CAC40 is expected to open 30 points lower at 7,081   Email: marketcomment@cmcmarkets.com   Follow CMC Markets on Twitter: @cmcmarkets   Follow Michael Hewson (Chief Market Analyst) on Twitter: @mhewson_CMC
The German Purchasing Managers' Index, ZEW Economic Sentiment  And More Ahead

European Markets Have Started To Lose Some Of Their Early Year Momentum

Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 24.01.2023 11:32
US markets started the week very much on the front foot yesterday, with the S&P500 closing above the 4,000 level and the Nasdaq 100 leading the way higher with its second successive 2% daily gain.   The outperformance in tech appears to point to a growing conviction on the part of investors that the Fed will soon have to look at cutting rates before the end of the year, although to look at bond markets yesterday, yields also moved higher, as money flowed out of treasury markets.   With a lot of tech companies starting to announce job cuts, as well as other measures to rein in costs, and inflationary pressures showing further signs of easing, it would appear that US investors are starting to think in terms of the next move higher, despite concerns over lower profits   Given the uncertain economic backdrop this comes across as a bit of a leap of faith, and its also notable that while US markets have started to gain momentum in the past few days, European markets have started to lose some of their early year momentum.   While US markets surged higher yesterday it is notable that today's European market open is likely to be a much more tepid affair, suggesting perhaps that investors in Europe don't share the same enthusiasm about the economic outlook, despite the reopening of the Chinese economy, which may help to provide a demand boost.   This increase in optimism is likely to be reflected in today's flash PMI numbers for January, which have already seen a pickup in economic activity in the past few months due to the sharp declines in energy prices from the peaks in August and September.   In Germany manufacturing PMI fell to 45.1 in October, but has recovered since then, albeit is still very much in contraction territory. Services have seen a similar pattern, dropping to two-year lows of 45, before showing small signs of a recovery. We expect to see a further improvement in today's January numbers to 48 for manufacturing and 49.5 in services.     In France, we've seen a similar pattern in manufacturing, although services have been more resilient due to the energy price subsidies provided by the French government to cushion French households from the worst effects of higher prices. France manufacturing is expected to improve to 49.5 from 49.2, and services to 49.8 from 49.5.   In the UK, manufacturing has struggled over the past 3 months and looks set to continue to do so, while services have been slightly more resilient. As we head into 2023 the challenges for business will be whether we see new investment, and a pick-up in economic activity, after the rising pessimism seen at the end of last year. Manufacturing is expected to remain subdued at 45.5, while services could slip back from 49.9 to 49.5.   Public sector borrowing in December is expected to remain high on the back of rising debt interest and energy price support with expectations of a small fall from November's £22bn to £18bn.   US manufacturing and services are expected to remain weak at 46 and 45 respectively.      EUR/USD – a marginal new high at 1.0927 yesterday, before slipping back again. The main resistance remains at the 1.0950 area which is 50% retracement of the move from the 2021 highs to last year's lows at 0.9536. A move through 1.0950 opens up a move towards 1.1110. Support remains back at the 1.0780 area.   GBP/USD – ran out of steam just below the 1.2450 area yesterday slipping back towards the 1.2320 area. Has managed to hold above the 1.2300 area for the last three days. Above 1.2450 could see a move towards 1.2600. A move below 1.2290 could see a move towards 1.2170.   EUR/GBP – slid back from the 0.8815 area but while above the 50- and 100-day SMA which acted as support last week the bias remains for a return to the recent highs at 0.8890. The next support below 0.8720 targets 0.8680.   USD/JPY – has squeezed back above the 130.20 area, with a move through 131.60 and last week's high potentially targeting a return to the 132.50 area in the short to medium term. Support currently at the 128.20 area as well as the lows last week at 127.20.     FTSE100 is expected to open 20 points higher at 7,804   DAX is expected to open 47 points higher at 15,150   CAC40 is expected to open 23 points higher at 7,055   Email: marketcomment@cmcmarkets.com Follow CMC Markets on Twitter: @cmcmarkets Follow Michael Hewson (Chief Market Analyst) on Twitter: @mhewson_CMC
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The EUR/GBP Cross-Currency Pair Rises For The Fourth Consecutive Day

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 25.01.2023 10:15
EUR/GBP grinds near weekly high, up for the fourth consecutive day. Clear rebound from 50% Fibonacci retracement, upside break of 100-SMA favor bulls. One-week-old resistance line restricts immediate upside ahead of monthly top. EUR/GBP picks up bids to 0.8845 as bulls poke intraday high, as well as the weekly top, heading into Wednesday’s European session. In doing so, the cross-currency pair rises for the fourth consecutive day after reversing from the 50% Fibonacci retracement of its run-up from early December to January 13. In addition to a successful rebound from the key Fibonacci retracement level of 0.8722, the EUR/GBP pair’s ability to cross the 100-SMA hurdle, as well as the bullish MACD signals, favor the bulls. It should be noted, however, that a downward-sloping resistance line from January 13, close to 0.8860 at the latest, guards the quote’s immediate upside. That said, the quote’s run-up beyond 0.8860 could enable the EUR/GBP bulls to refresh the monthly high, currently around 0.8900. In that case, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of its moves between December 01, 2022, and January 13, 2023, close to 0.8955, will gain the market’s attention. Alternatively, pullback moves may initially aim for the 100-SMA level surrounding 0.8815 ahead of targeting the 0.8800 round figure. Following that, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.8722 should lure the EUR/GBP bears. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 0.8722, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 0.8680, also known as the “golden ratio”, will be crucial to watch. EUR/GBP: Four-hour chart Trend: Further upside expected
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The EUR/GBP Pair Is Likely To Witness Further Recovery

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 27.01.2023 09:51
EUR/GBP takes the bids to refresh intraday low after snapping two-day downtrend. Convergence of 200-EMA, immediate descending trend line guards recovery moves. 50% Fibonacci retracement appears the key support for bears to watch. EUR/GBP bulls struggle to retake control as the cross-currency pair renews intraday high near 0.8785 heading into Friday’s European session. In doing so, the quote jostles with the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a downward-sloping resistance line from Wednesday, close to the 0.8785-90 hurdle. It’s worth noting that the receding bearish bias of the MACD and the RSI (14) attempt to regain the 50 level keeps the EUR/GBP buyers hopeful. Also luring the EUR/GBP bulls could be the cross-currency pair’s bounce off the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of December 01, 2022, to January 13, 2023 upside, close to 0.8720. Hence, the quote’s one more attempt to break the two-week-old resistance line, around 0.8840 by the press time, can’t be ruled out. Following that, a run-up to the monthly peak of 0.8897 becomes imminent. Meanwhile, the EUR/GBP pair’s fresh weakness remains unimportant till it stays beyond the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.8722. In a case where EUR/GBP remains bearish past 0.8720, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, also known as the golden ratio, could act as the last defense of the buyers around 0.8680. Overall, EUR/GBP is likely to witness further recovery but the bulls are far from retaking control. EUR/GBP: Four-hour chart Trend: Corrective bounce expected
Despite The Improvement In The Outlook Due To Falling Energy Prices, The Economic Environment In Britain Remains Difficult

Four Bank of England scenarios for February’s meeting

ING Economics ING Economics 27.01.2023 12:35
Persistently high wage and service-sector price inflation points to another 50bp rate hike from the Bank of England next Thursday. If we're right, then we expect one final 25bp rate hike in March, marking the top of this tightening cycle Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey Four scenarios for the Bank of England meeting Market pricing based on spot values on 27 January Source: ING   The Bank of England looks more likely to follow the European Central Bank than the Federal Reserve next Thursday, and we expect a 50 basis point rate hike for the second consecutive meeting. While the minutes of the December meeting appeared to open the door to a potential downshift to a 25bp move in February – and this meeting looks like a closer call than markets are pricing – the reality is that the recent data has looked relatively hawkish. Wage growth is persistently high, looking both at the official numbers and the BoE’s own business surveys. Headline inflation came in a little lower than the Bank projected back in November, but services CPI – seen as a better gauge of domestically-driven inflation – has come in above expectations. Still, if we get a 50bp hike on Thursday then it’s likely to be the last. BoE officials have hinted previously that much of the impact of last year’s rate hikes is yet to hit, and cracks are forming in interest-rate-sensitive parts of the economy. Headline inflation should begin to come down more rapidly from March too, as the impact of last year's energy bill surges drop out, and core goods/food pressure begins to ease more noticeably.  We expect one final 25bp hike in March, taking the Bank Rate to a peak of 4.25%. The key question for Thursday is whether the Bank itself acknowledges its work is nearly complete. We suspect it’s more likely to keep its options open. Here's what we expect: 1 The vote split December’s meeting saw the number of policymakers voting for a 75bp hike drop from seven to one, and the committee’s two most dovish officials opted for no rate hike at all. The lesson then and throughout 2022 was that the committee tends to move by consensus, and that means that the vote split is unlikely to be particularly narrow, even if the meeting is a tough one to call. Either we’ll get a similar number of officials voting for 50bp again, or we’ll see the vast majority scale back their vote to 25bp, akin to the kind of shift we saw in December. Our base case is that we see six of the nine policymakers voting for a 50bp hike, one for 25bp and two for no change. How each official has voted on interest rate decisions since 2021 Dr Swati Dhingra joined the committee in August 2022 and began voting in September Source: Bank of England, ING 2 New forecasts Calmer markets and scaled-back rate hike expectations since the mini-Budget crisis last year mean we shouldn’t be surprised to see the Bank upgrade its growth forecasts. Lower gas prices should theoretically help too, though this is a little more awkward for the BoE given that the government hasn’t yet cancelled plans to increase household bills in April, even if such a move now looks unlikely. That also means we’ll have to take the new inflation forecasts with a slight pinch of salt, and our own view is that headline CPI will end the year 1pp lower if April's planned increase is scrapped and consumer bills return to levels consistent with market pricing from the third quarter.  Still, it's the medium-term story that matters more. Keep an eye on the so-called ‘constant rate’ inflation forecasts, where the Bank assumes the Bank rate will remain unchanged from now on. If these show inflation at, or very close to, 2% in a couple of years' time, then that would be a sure-fire sign that policymakers think we’re close to the peak for Bank Rate. 3 Guidance on future policy decisions Governor Andrew Bailey hinted recently that current market pricing, which sees a peak for Bank Rate at 4.4%, is in the right ballpark. That suggests little reason for the Bank to rock the boat too much on Thursday with new forward guidance, and we suspect it will want to keep options open. The Bank will likely repeat that it’s prepared to act ‘forcefully’ in future if required (though we learnt in December’s minutes that 50bp hikes classify as ‘forceful’). We also doubt Bailey will be willing to be drawn on whether the Bank could pivot back to a 25bp hike in March, nor indeed whether that would be the last move in the cycle. Where he may be tempted to push back is on policy easing, especially now markets are almost pricing in one 25bp rate cut by the end of this year. Chief Economist Huw Pill’s recent emphasis on the UK sharing the worst bits of the US and eurozone’s inflation problems – structural labour shortages with the former, the energy crisis with the latter – feels like a line we’ll hear a lot over the coming months as officials try to dampen expectations of policy easing. Sterling rates to tighten to euro, and a more inverted curve The sterling rates curve still trades with a remnant of the risk premium that appeared in the run-up to the September budget debacle, making it one of the few markets where we think rates are unjustifiably high. Things have changed since then, however. Markets have come around to our more benign view on the terminal rate in this cycle, now implying hikes will stop around 4.25%. Instead, the discrepancy is to be found in longer maturities where the curve implies the Bank rate will remain elevated longer than at other central banks. Read next: Ukraine Is Calling For More Sanctions Against Russia| FXMAG.COM What markets expect from the Bank of England over the coming months Source: Refinitiv, ING   That markets taking a more hawkish view of BoE policy than signalled, for instance in its forecast, is nothing new. What’s changed is the way participants look at inflation risk. This has prompted yield curves to take a much more benign view of Fed and ECB policy. Each country is different but we find the treatment of sterling rates increasingly at odds with that of the dollar and euro. As a result, we expect the differential between 5Y sterling and euro swap rates to shrink to 75bp. This convergence should also be helped by the worsening of UK economic surprise indices, just as their eurozone equivalent goes from strength to strength. The spread between euro and sterling swap rates is likely to narrow Source: Refinitiv, ING   We also think the GBP curve is due to flatten further. One likely driver is the market's growing confidence that the BoE, like the Fed, will soon be in a position to cut rates, although we wouldn’t expect this before 2024. Another less probable driver would be if the BoE feels the need to tighten policy more than expected in the coming meetings. We very much doubt that longer rates would follow the short end higher, pricing instead a growing risk of rate cuts down the line to cushion the economic hit. We think the GBP curve is due to flatten further Source: Refinitiv, ING GBP: Temporary strength The BoE’s broad trade-weighted measure of sterling has bounced around 6% since the dark days of September and will marginally ease the BoE’s fears of imported inflation. Given that a 50bp hike is not fully priced for Thursday, sterling could enjoy some limited and temporary strength should the BoE indeed hike 50bp. Depending on the post-FOMC state of the dollar, that could briefly send GBP/USD back into the 1.24/25 range and EUR/GBP back to the low 0.87s. However, the challenges facing sterling have not gone away. Large twin deficits, weak growth and what throughout the year should be building expectations that falling prices – especially from March/April onwards – will provide room for the BoE to cut rates around the turn of the year. In terms of a profile, we think a continued narrowing in GBP rates premium to the EUR can push EUR/GBP higher through the year towards the 0.90/91 area. GBP/USD should be supported by the better EUR/USD trend, but will probably struggle to hold any gains to the high 1.20s – potentially seen in the second quarter. Read this article on THINK TagsInterest rates Bank of England Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The US PCE Data Is Expected To Confirm Another Modest Slowdown

The US PCE Data Is Expected To Confirm Another Modest Slowdown

Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 27.01.2023 13:26
European markets have struggled for direction this week, finishing the day modestly higher after two days of minor losses.   US markets on the other hand finished the day strongly higher, with the Nasdaq 100 leading the way higher on the belief, rightly or wrongly, that the US economy is heading for a soft landing whatever the Fed does next week.   Yesterday's Q4 GDP numbers showed the US economy expanded by 2.9%, while weekly jobless claims fell again to 186k from 192k the week before.   If there are any concerns that the US economy is on the brink of a recession it's certainly not being reflected in the economic data, which still looks solid, as we look towards next week's Federal Reserve rate meeting.   Today we get a look at the latest personal spending numbers for December, after seeing a sizeable slowdown in the November numbers to 0.1%, after a strong October showing of 0.9%.   If we get a similar weak reading today, and all the forecasts suggest we might, then that would suggest a rising caution amongst US consumers about how the economy is evolving as we head into 2023. We've already seen US banks setting aside hefty loan loss provisions in their most recent earnings numbers, a move which might suggest rising unease that consumers are becoming more frugal with their spending, or that a slowdown might result in credit losses.   Expectations are for December personal spending to decline by -0.1%, which seems somewhat conservative given that retail sales showed a decline of -1.1% a couple of weeks ago.   Whatever numbers we get today it seems almost certain that we will see the Federal Reserve raise rates by another 25bps next week, and judging by the rally in US stocks yesterday, the market has increasingly priced in that outcome instead of what might have been a 50bps move.   The big concern is what markets aren't pricing, and while the Bank of Canada earlier this week signalled a pause in its rate hiking cycle, that doesn't mean the Fed will follow a similar path, even though markets appear to be pricing exactly that sort of outcome.   While yesterday's GDP numbers increasingly appear to support the prospect of a soft landing, the labour market data also suggests that the Fed has the headroom to continue to be much more aggressive.   Today's PCE Core Deflator inflation data is expected to confirm another modest slowdown from 4.7% to 4.4%, and the lowest reading since October 2021. It would also support the case for a more modest 25bps next week, however as we get nearer to the end of the Fed's rate hiking cycle there is some divergence with respect to what might come next.   Judging by the bond market reaction which saw yields move higher there may be a realisation that rates are likely to remain higher for longer, while the strong close for stocks might suggest the market believes rate cuts might not be too far away.   That seems doubtful if last night's Tokyo CPI is any guide, after inflation there surged to a new 42 year high at 4.4%, well above expectations of 4%. This suggests that global inflation is likely to be stickier than markets are currently pricing.   We'll soon see who is right when Fed chair Powell speaks next week, but if markets think a pause is coming, they could be in for a bit of a wake-up call.   EUR/USD – another fairly tight range yesterday with resistance at 1.0927 and the highs this week, as well as wider resistance at the 1.0950 area which is 50% retracement of the move from the 2021 highs to last year's lows at 0.9536. A move through 1.0950 opens up a move towards 1.1110. Support remains back at the 1.0780 area.   GBP/USD – made another attempt to move towards the 1.2450 resistance area yesterday, before slipping back. We need to see a move through the 1.2450 area to target further gains towards 1.2600. A move below 1.2250 could see a move towards 1.2170.    EUR/GBP – the failure to make progress through the 0.8850 area has seen the euro slip back. Also have resistance at the previous highs at 0.8900. Still have support above the 50- and 100-day SMA which we saw last week at the 0.8720/30 area. Below 0.8720 targets 0.8680.   USD/JPY – needs to break through the 131.00 area to target a move back towards 132.60. While below the risk is for further declines towards the lows at 127.20. We have interim support at the 128.20 area initially.   FTSE100 is expected to open 13 points higher at 7,774   DAX is expected to open 44 points higher at 15,176   CAC40 is expected to open 3 points higher at 7,099   Email: marketcomment@cmcmarkets.com   Follow CMC Markets on Twitter: @cmcmarkets Follow Michael Hewson (Chief Market Analyst) on Twitter: @mhewson_CMC
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Eurozone GDP May Put Challenges For The EUR/GBP Buyers

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 31.01.2023 09:49
EUR/GBP reverses the previous day’s corrective bounce off one-week low. Euro struggles to defend hawks after downbeat German data challenge hawkish ECB bias. IMF’s warning over the UK’s economic conditions challenge EUR/GBP bears. Preliminary readings of Eurozone Q4 GDP will be crucial for immediate directions, ECB vs. BoE battle eyed. EUR/GBP remains depressed around 0.8780, fading the week-start recovery, as traders await Eurozone Q4 GDP for fresh impulse during early Tuesday. The cross-currency pair managed to begin the key week comprising central bank announcements on a positive side amid fears of the UK drama over tax cuts. However, downbeat prints of German GDP, later on, weighed on the prices. That said, Economic Sentiment Indicator for the Euro area improved to 99.9 in January from an upwardly revised 97.1 prior and 97.0 market forecasts. The Consumer Confidence, however, matched 20.9 market forecast and previous readings during the stated month. That said, the Industrial Confidence and Services Sentiment also improved during January. On the other hand, the preliminary readings of Germany’s fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in softer than 0.0% expected and 0.4% prior to -0.2% QoQ. "After the German economy managed to perform well despite difficult conditions in the first three quarters, economic performance slightly decreased in the fourth quarter of 2022", Destatis noted in its publication. The same raises fears of downbeat Eurozone GDP and challenges the EUR/GBP buyers. Alternatively, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) downbeat economic projections for the UK seem to keep the EUR/GBP on the front foot. As per the latest forecasts, the IMF projects the British economy will mark the weakest performance among the Group of Seven (G7) nations. Read next: Glovo Is Planning To Layoff 250 Workers Worldwide, The Middle East Is Already Suffering From A Water Shortage| FXMAG.COM Also read: IMF: Emerging markets growth slowdown bottomed out in 2022, but risks remain Looking forward, the first readings of the Eurozone Q4 GDP, expected 0.0% QoQ versus 0.3%, will offer immediate directions to the EUR/GBP and is likely to witness further weakness unless marking a surprise. However, major attention should be given to Thursday’s monetary policy meetings of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) for clear directions. Technical analysis Although a convergence of the 100-DMA and the 50-DMA provides strong support to the EUR/GBP price around 0.8740-35, recovery remains elusive unless the quote stays below a 12-day-old resistance line, close to 0.8830 at the latest.
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Weak Performance For EU Q4 GDP, The UK Economy Is Also Expected To Experience A Weak Quarter

Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 31.01.2023 13:10
European markets struggled for direction yesterday, after German Q4 GDP showed a surprise contraction of -0.2% and core CPI in Spain rose to a record high of 7.5%, pushing yields across the bloc sharply higher. With the ECB due to meet later this week and expected to raise rates by 50bps, yesterday's weakness appears to have been driven by concern that the EU economy might not be as strong as thought, and inflation a lot stickier.   US markets also continued their own Jekyll and Hyde behaviour with the Nasdaq 100 posting its biggest one-day loss this year, as the strong rally of last week gave rise to a more tempered approach as the Federal Reserve gets set to kick off its two-day meeting later today.   Yesterday's surprise increase in Spanish core inflation for January to record highs also appears to have raised concerns that high prices might not come down as quickly as thought, and growth a lot slower, despite the recent sharp falls in energy prices. With Asia markets also sliding back this morning, markets here in Europe look set to open lower as we come to the end of what has been a strong month.   Later today we should get a better idea of whether the contraction in the German economy in Q4 was a localised issue, or symptomatic of more widespread economic weakness across the EU.   The French economy is expected to slow in Q4, down from 0.2% in Q3, to 0%, while the Italian economy is expected to contract by -0.2% in Q4. This is expected to translate into a similar weak performance for EU Q4 GDP which is forecast to show a contraction of -0.1%.   The UK economy is also expected to experience a weak quarter, however we won't know the actual numbers on that until next week, but recent lending data has already shown that consumers have already started to rein back on their spending, although we did see a bit of a pickup in November.   Read next: The Government Pension Fund Global Suffers Losses| FXMAG.COM   Net consumer credit in November more than doubled from 700k in October, to £1.5bn. This may well have been driven by a surge of holiday bookings judging by the recent November GDP numbers, which showed a strong performance from the travel sector. This resilience may well extend into December with an expectation of £1.1bn.   Mortgage approvals on the other hand, have slowed sharply since the summer months, and are expected to remain subdued in December, with expectations of a fall from 46.1k to 45k.   In the US the latest consumer confidence numbers for January are expected to see another gain to 109, after a surprise surge in December saw this indicator rise sharply to 108.3 from 101.40. This rise in consumer confidence is a little puzzling given that retail sales in the US for both November and December showed sharp declines.   One indicator that is likely to be of particular interest to the Federal Reserve as they convene their latest meeting today is the employment cost index for Q4 which is expected to slow from 1.1% from 1.2% in Q3. This is another key indicator for the Federal Reserve after last week saw core PCE fall to its lowest levels in over a year.  An upside miss on the ECI would be bad news for any sort of dovish expectations from tomorrow's decision.   EUR/USD – we saw another failed attempt to push above the 1.0900 area before slipping back again. The main resistance remains at the 1.0950 area which is 50% retracement of the move from the 2021 highs to last year's lows at 0.9536. A move through 1.0950 opens up a move towards 1.1110. Support remains back at the 1.0780 area.   GBP/USD – has continued to struggle above the 1.2400 area after last week's failure to move through the 1.2450 resistance area. We need to see a move through the 1.2450 area to target further gains towards 1.2600. A move below 1.2250 could see a move towards 1.2170.    EUR/GBP – the failure to make progress through the 0.8850 area last week has seen the euro slip back. Key support remains at the 50- and 100-day SMA which we earlier this month at the 0.8720/30 area. Below 0.8720 targets 0.8680.   USD/JPY – needs to break through the 131.00 area to target a move back towards 132.60. While below 131.00 the risk is for further declines towards the lows at 127.20. We have trend line support at the 129.00 area initially.   FTSE100 is expected to open 18 points lower at 7,767   DAX is expected to open 50 points lower at 15,076   CAC40 is expected to open 22 points lower at 7,060     Email: marketcomment@cmcmarkets.com Follow CMC Markets on Twitter: @cmcmarkets Follow Michael Hewson (Chief Market Analyst) on Twitter: @mhewson_CMC
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The MPC Is On The Horns Of A Dilemma But The ECB Will See Another 50bps Rate Hike

Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 02.02.2023 08:51
Having seen the Federal Reserve hike rates yesterday evening by 25bps and signal that they are far from done, equity markets reacted by rallying strongly with the Nasdaq 100 surging to its highest levels since early September.   For all of Fed chair Jay Powell's insistence that more rate hikes were coming, and that the Fed was not looking at cutting rates this year, his failure to push back emphatically on direct questions about market expectations of rate cuts this year, as well as the loosening of financial conditions has created an even greater divergence between market pricing on rates, and the Fed's expectations of how the economy is likely to evolve. To borrow a line from Cool Hand Luke, "what we've got here is a failure to communicate".    Long story short, the market thinks the inflation job is done, even if the Fed hasn't arrived at that conclusion yet. Consequently, this goes a long way to explaining why US markets closed strongly higher and yields and the US dollar plunged to 9-month lows, with the euro hitting 1.1000 for the first time since April last year. Last night's rally in the US looks set to translate into a higher European open as we now look towards the Bank of England and the European Central Bank to outline their messaging when it comes to the timeline of their own rate hiking cycle.   Starting with the Bank of England, the MPC is on the horns of a dilemma as the UK economy continues to struggle with double digit inflation, although the economy may well not be as bad as perhaps was thought at the end of last year, which could prompt a modest tweak to some of its economic forecasts.   The slide in energy prices in recent months has alleviated some of the pressure on wage packets, when it comes to petrol prices, however with food price inflation still at 16%, they will also be acutely aware that a weak pound will make headline inflation much sticker than it needs to be if they show any indication, they are going soft when it comes to hit its inflation target.   There will be the usual concerns about the impact on mortgage costs from another 50bps move but 5-year gilt yields have barely moved since the lows set back in November, although 2-year yields are higher.   Whatever we get today we are likely to see a split again, with the likes of Tenreyro and Dhingra likely to be the most averse to another hike given that they voted for no change in December.   The likes of Catherine Mann are likely to push for another 50bps, while the rest of the committee are expected to split between 25bps and 50bps, from the current 3.5%. If we do get 50bps will the Bank of England signal it is done, and signal a pause, or will they move by 25bps and signal there is more to come. With core prices looking sticky and wages rising at over 7% any procrastination on the MPC's part when it comes to forward guidance could well do more harm than good.   Whatever we get from the MPC today history has taught us it's unlikely to help the pound in the short term given the Bank of England's propensity to talk the pound lower whenever they meet. There is also the fact that the pound has been under pressure on the back of the belief that the Bank of England is much closer to the end of its rate hiking cycle than the ECB.     After the Bank of England, it is the turn of the European Central Bank and here there is little doubt that we will see another 50bps rate hike later today. It is what comes next that is likely to dominate the discourse today.   When the most recent ECB minutes were released, it became apparent that a raft of ECB governing council members wanted a much more aggressive approach, pushing for a 75bps move.   In the wake of the recent Davos Economic Forum ECB President Lagarde doubled down on her December messaging of multiple successive rate hikes, saying that inflation is still way too high, and markets are underestimating the ECB's resolve to drive prices back towards their 2% inflation target. This hawkish message is unlikely to be softened despite the recent fall in headline inflation to 8.5%, given core prices have remained steadfast at record highs of 5.2%.   When the ECB met in December, Lagarde more or less pre-committed the ECB to at least another 3 50bps rate hikes at the next 3 meetings, in a move that has seen the euro push higher and which has finally seen it break above the 1.1000 level, although that has mainly come about as a result of the market reaction to last night's Fed decision, rather than any intrinsic euro strength.   This would suggest that markets are still not convinced the ECB will be able to follow through on the number of hikes indicated given the risks it might pose to the borrowing costs of the more highly indebted members of the euro area.   EUR/USD – finally pushed through the 1.0930 area and the 1.0950 area which is 50% retracement of the move from the 2021 highs to last year's lows at 0.9536. Yesterday's move through 1.0950 now opens up a move towards 1.1110. Support now comes in at 1.0920.   GBP/USD – the recent lows at 1.2260 remain a key support after another failure last week at the 1.2450 resistance area. A move below 1.2250 could see a move towards 1.2170.    EUR/GBP – edging back towards the recent highs just below the 0.8900 area. A move through these highs could trigger a move towards 0.9000. Key support remains at the 50- and 100-day SMA which we saw earlier this month at the 0.8720/30 area. Below 0.8720 targets 0.8680.   USD/JPY – slipped below trend line support at 129.00 from the recent lows at 127.20, raising the prospect of a retest of those lows, and potentially on towards 126.50. Resistance now at 129.30.   FTSE100 is expected to open 30 points higher at 7,791   DAX is expected to open 102 points higher at 15,282   CAC40 is expected to open 35 points higher at 7,112   Email: marketcomment@cmcmarkets.com Follow CMC Markets on Twitter: @cmcmarkets Follow Michael Hewson (Chief Market Analyst) on Twitter: @mhewson_CMC
If The Bank Of England Hike Interest Rates Again Later This Month Will Exert Downward Pressure On The EUR/GBP Cross

The Key Central Banks Event Risk Keeps A Lid On Further Gains For The EUR/GBP Cross

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 02.02.2023 09:29
EUR/GBP scales higher for the fourth straight day and touches a fresh multi-month top. Expectations for additional jumbo rate hikes by the ECB continue to underpin the Euro. Speculations that the BoE is nearing the end of the rate-hiking cycle weigh on the GBP. Traders now seem reluctant as the focus shifts to the BoE and the ECB policy decisions. The EUR/GBP cross gains traction for the fourth successive day and climbs to the 0.8900 neighbourhood or its highest level since late September on Thursday. The shared currency continues to draw support from expectations for additional jumbo rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) in the coming months. The bets were reaffirmed by the recent hawkish commentary by several ECB officials, which, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the EUR/GBP cross. The British Pound's relative underperformance could further be attributed to speculations that the Bank of England (BoE) is nearing the end of the current rate-hiking cycle. That said, the prevalent US Dollar selling bias lends some support to the Sterling Pound. Furthermore, signs of inflationary pressures in the Eurozone might have forced investors to scale back expectations for a more aggressive policy tightening by the ECB. This, along with reluctance ahead of the key central bank event risk, keeps a lid on any further gains for the EUR/GBP cross. This warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of the ongoing move-up. Both the BoE and the ECB are scheduled to announce their policy decisions during the mid-European session this Thursday. The market focus, however, will be on clues about the future rate hike path, which will determine the next leg of a directional move for the EUR/GBP cross. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop favours bullish traders, though a sustained move beyond the 0.8900 round-figure mark is needed to support prospects for a further near-term appreciating move.
If The Bank Of England Hike Interest Rates Again Later This Month Will Exert Downward Pressure On The EUR/GBP Cross

The EUR/USD Pair Is Expected A Further Upside Movement

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 13.02.2023 09:02
EUR/GBP fades bounce off monthly support, grinds near intraday high of late. Sustained trading beyond 200-SMA, looming bull cross on MACD favor buyers. Weekly resistance line guards immediate upside ahead of monthly high. EUR/GBP grinds near an intraday high surrounding 0.8850 during the initial hours of Monday morning in London. In doing so, the cross-currency pair stays above the 200-Simple Moving Average (SMA) despite fading bounce off the monthly support line. It’s worth noting that the impending bull cross on the MACD and steady RSI (14) joins the quote’s successful trading above the key moving average to keep buyers hopeful. That said, a one-week-old descending trend line restricts the EUR/GBP pair’s immediate upside to near 0.8870. Following that, the 0.8900 round figure and multiple hurdles near 0.8910 could act as the last defense of the pair buyers before directing the quote toward the monthly high of near 0.8980. It should be observed that the EUR/GBP run-up beyond 0.8990 will need validation from the 0.9000 psychological magnet to aim for the previous yearly high surrounding 0.9250. Read next: Campbell Bought A $100,000 Plane To Live In It| FXMAG.COM On the contrary, the 200-SMA and an ascending trend line from January 19, close to 0.8835 and 0.8828 in that order, restrict the short-term downside of the EUR/GBP pair. Following that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s January-February upside and the late January swing low, respectively near 0.8820 and 0.8760, will be in focus. Overall, EUR/GBP is likely to remain firmer unless offering clear trading below 0.8828. EUR/GBP: Four-hour chart Trend: Further upside expected remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators
Bank of England is expected to hike the rate by 25bp. Kelvin Wong talks Euro against British pound

The EUR/GBP Cross-Currency Pair Remains On The Buyer’s Radar

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.02.2023 09:18
EUR/GBP reverses bounce off key support confluence on strong UK employment data. UK Unemployment Rate stays unchanged but Claimant Count Change drops. Divergence between ECB and BoE policymakers may recall pair buyers if EU Q4 GDP improves. EUR/GBP reverses from intraday high while declining nearly 20 pips to 0.8830 on the upbeat UK jobs report during early Tuesday. In doing so, the cross-currency pair reversed the early-day run-up from the key 0.8830 support confluence. UK’s Unemployment Rate matches market forecasts and reprints the 3.7% figure for three months to December. However, a slump in January’s Claimant Count Change to -12.9K versus -3.2K prior, as well as strong prints of the  Average Earnings Excluding Bonus for the said month seemed to have favored EUR/GBP bears of late. In contrast to the upbeat UK data, a comparatively more hawkish bias at the European Central Bank (ECB) versus the Bank of England (BoE) joins the upbeat European Commission (EC) economics forecasts to underpin the regional currency’s bullish bias. On Monday, the European Commission (EC) released its quarterly economic projections for the Eurozone wherein it revised up the economic growth forecast to 0.9% for 2023 from 0.3% previously expected, projecting 2024 growth unchanged at 1.5%. The EC, however, lowered the Eurozone inflation forecast for 2023 to 5.6% YoY from 6.1% earlier expected. Further, the EC also cut 2024 inflation predictions to 2.5% for 2024, versus 2.6% previously anticipated. That said, European Central Bank (ECB) Vice-President Luis de Guindos said on Monday, “Rate increases beyond March are to depend on data.” On the same line, ECB policymaker Mario Centeno said, “Inflation is going down faster than we expected,” while adding that smaller hikes would need mid-term inflation nearing 2%. On the other hand, Bank of England’s (BoE) policymaker Jonathan Haskel cited a rise in inactivity in the UK labor market and challenged the British Pound (GBP) buyers previously. BoE’s Haskel also mentioned, “I would prefer to make policy with much more attention on the data flow over the next few months.” On a broader front, the cautious mood ahead of the top-tier data/events joins softer US Treasury bond yields to favor the mild optimism in the market, which in turn seems to favor the Euro (EUR). Having witnessed the initial reaction to the British data and EU fundamentals, EUR/GBP pair traders should wait for the preliminary readings of the fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the Eurozone for clear directions. Given the recently upbeat economic projections from the European Commission and the ECB’s hawkish bias, the EUR/GBP pair is likely to remain firmer unless the EU GDP disappoints. Technical analysis Unless breaking 0.8830 support confluence comprising the 21-DMA and a one-month-old ascending trend line, the EUR/GBP remains on the buyer’s radar.
If The Bank Of England Hike Interest Rates Again Later This Month Will Exert Downward Pressure On The EUR/GBP Cross

Analysis Of The EUR/GBP Cross Currency Pair Movement

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 15.02.2023 08:09
On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/GBP cross currency pair can be seen that the price movement is continuing its decline to go to the target level 0.8771 as the main target and the 0.8721 level as the second target where this can be seen as confirmation from the movement of the candlestick moving below the moving average. because of the appearance of deviations in price movements with the MACD Histogram indicator, in the near future there will be a upward correction movement to test the 0.8836 level before returning to the original downward movement but the important thing is as long as the upward correction movement does not exceed the 0.8874 level, then a bearish scenario will occur. has been described is still valid.   Relevance up to 02:00 2023-02-16 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/119497
Bank of England is expected to hike the rate by 25bp. Kelvin Wong talks Euro against British pound

The Bank Of England's (Boe) Current Rate-Hiking Cycle Might Be Nearing The End And This Acts As A Tailwind For The EUR/GBP Cross

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 17.02.2023 10:01
EUR/GBP gains positive traction for the third straight day and climbs to over a one-week high. The upbeat UK Retail Sales for January fail to impress the GBP bulls or provide any impetus. Bets for additional jumbo rate hikes by the ECB support prospects for further near-term gains. The EUR/GBP cross builds on this week's goodish bounce from the 0.8800 mark and edges higher for the third successive day on Friday. Spot prices hold steady above the 0.8900 round figure through the early European session and react little to the latest UK macro data. The UK Office for National Statistics reported that domestic Retail Sales grew 0.5% in January against consensus estimates for a 0.3% fall. Furthermore, sales excluding fuel also surpassed market expectations and rose by 0.4% during the reported month. The better-than-expected prints, however, were offset by a downward revision of the previous month's already weaker readings. This, in turn, fails to provide any meaningful impetus to the British Pound or move the EUR/GBP cross. That said, the softer UK consumer inflation figures released earlier this week fueled expectations that the Bank of England's (BoE) current rate-hiking cycle might be nearing the end. This continues to weigh on the Sterling and acts as a tailwind for the EUR/GBP cross. That said, broad-based US Dollar strength exerts some follow-through downward pressure on the shared currency. This, in turn, holds back bulls from placing aggressive bets and caps the upside for the cross, at least for now. Meanwhile, bets for additional jumbo rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) might contribute to the Euro's relative outperformance against its British counterpart. This, in turn, supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move for the EUR/GBP cross. Hence, some follow-through strength back towards the 0.8975-0.8980 region, or the highest level since September 2022 touched earlier this month, looks like a distinct possibility. Technical levels to watch remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators
If The Bank Of England Hike Interest Rates Again Later This Month Will Exert Downward Pressure On The EUR/GBP Cross

The EUR/GBP Pair Is Expected Limited Downside Movement

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 20.02.2023 08:46
EUR/GBP fades bounce off immediate horizontal support, 200-HMA. Sluggish oscillators suggest limited downside room but bulls need validation from 0.8930. Monthly low lures bears past 200-HMA buyers have a bumpy road to the north to track. EUR/GBP holds lower ground near 0.8880 during the early Monday morning in Europe. In doing so, the cross-currency pair fades bounce off the 200-HMA and eight-day-old horizontal support. Also teasing the pair sellers is the lower high formation, marked since February 07. However, the aforementioned support line, close to 0.8875 at the latest, precedes the 200-Hour Moving Average (HMA) level surrounding 0.8865, to put a floor under the EUR/GBP prices. In a case where the EUR/GBP pair drops below 0.8865, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the monthly low near the 0.8800 round figure can’t be ruled out. It’s worth noting, though, that January’s low near 0.8720 could challenge the pair sellers afterward. Meanwhile, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the EUR/GBP pair’s fall between February 03 and 14, near 0.8890 and 0.8910 in that order, could challenge the short-term upside of the pair. Following that, a downward-sloping resistance line from February 07, close to 0.8930 by the press time, will be the key as a clear break of the same towards the north might endanger the monthly peak of 0.8978. Overall, EUR/GBP is likely to grind lower amid mixed catalysts and sluggish prints of the MACD and RSI. Though, the downside room appears limited. EUR/GBP: Hourly chart Trend: Limited downside expected
Bank of England is expected to hike the rate by 25bp. Kelvin Wong talks Euro against British pound

Bears Of The EUR/GBP Pair Keep The Reins For The Third Day

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 21.02.2023 09:34
EUR/GBP retreats from intraday high to extend Friday’s U-turn from two-week high. Full market’s return, cautious mood probe Euro bulls ahead of Eurozone ZEW Sentiment data, monthly PMI. The British Pound braces for UK PMI amid mixed concerns surrounding Brexit. EUR/GBP holds lower ground around 0.8870, after recently reversing from the daily top, as bears keep the reins for the third consecutive day to early Tuesday in Europe. In doing so, the cross-currency pair portrays the broad retreat in the Euro, as well as the recovery in the British Pound (GBP), ahead of the key data for the bloc and Britain. That said, a fresh run-up in the US Treasury bond yields, and the fears emanating from China, North Korea and Russia seemed to have underpinned the market’s rush for the US Dollar as traders from Washington return after a long weekend. As a result, the Euro witnesses a pullback in the demand due to its contrast with the greenback. It’s worth noting that the recent statistics from the Euro area have been firmer while those from the UK have been mixed, which in turn keeps the pair buyers hopeful ahead of the key numbers. Additionally teasing the EUR/GBP buyers are the hawkish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) official. That said, ECB governing council member and Finnish central bank Chief Olli Rehn recently said, per Reuters, “ECB should keep raising interest rates beyond March and the rate peak, which should be stuck to for some time, could be reached over the summer.” On the same line, upbeat prints of Eurozone Consumer Confidence matched the market forecasts of -19 versus -20.9 prior. Further, Germany's Bundesbank released its monthly report and noted that the economic outlook was somewhat brighter with the short-term outlook turning more favorable than seen just a few months ago. Alternatively, fears of no imminent Brexit deal should have weighed on the British Pound (GBP) as the UK’s Conservative Members of the Parliament (MPs) dislike the deal with the European Union (EU) on Northern Ireland (NI). Some of them are threatening to resign, per The Times, amid fears of the compromised deal. The news also mentioned that UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak spent notable time in the House of Commons to convince the MPs that no deal had yet been agreed and talks were continuing. “He was told he ‘hasn’t got a hope’ of succeeding without the support of the Democratic Unionist Party,” per The Times. Amid these plays, stock futures are down and the Treasury bond yields, as well as the US Dollar, are firmer, which in turn weigh on the Euro amid a sluggish start to the key day. Looking forward, Eurozone ZEW sentiment figures for February will precede the preliminary readings of the bloc’s, as well as the UK’s, Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for the said month to direct short-term pair moves. Given the cross-currency pair’s latest retreat, backed by the market speculations that the Euro rally is about to end amid the European Central Bank’s (ECB) inability to offer higher rates, the sellers may keep the reins unless the scheduled data mark any surprise. Technical analysis EUR/GBP fades bounce off the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 0.8815 by the press time, which in turn joins bearish MACD signals and failure to cross the 0.8915-10 horizontal hurdle to keep bears hopeful.
If The Bank Of England Hike Interest Rates Again Later This Month Will Exert Downward Pressure On The EUR/GBP Cross

The EUR/GBP Cross Pair Is Expected To Display More Weakness

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 23.02.2023 08:32
EUR/GBP looks vulnerable around 0.8800 as hawkish BoE bets soar after a recovery in UK preliminary PMI data. UK’s Hunt is facing calls from within his Conservative Party to cut taxes and raise pay for public service workers. ECB Lagarde is set to continue its policy tightening spell of 50 bps to March. The EUR/GBP pair is struggling to find any direction in the Tokyo session amid the absence of a potential trigger. The cross is juggling around 0.8800 and is expected to display more weakness as an economic recovery in the United Kingdom and a shortage of labor is demanding the continuation of policy tightening by the Bank of England (BoE). Investors were in a dilemma whether the Bank of England (BoE) should pause policy contraction as the economic outlook was expected extremely bleak or continue pushing rates higher to tame stubborn inflation. Shortage of labor and escalating food inflation is continuously maintaining havoc that the inflation could be underpinned anytime to new highs. No doubt, the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) has eased in the past few months, however, the headline CPI figure is still in double-digit and sufficient to trouble households. Meanwhile, a recovery in the economic activities shown by the preliminary S&P Global PMI (Feb) data, released this week, indicates that labor demand could be fueled further and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey should consider continuation of policy tightening. A figure below 50.0 for the preliminary Manufacturing activities indicates contraction, however, the pace of decline in activities has squeezed significantly. BoE panel sees the interest rate peak around 4.5% and the continuation of the rate hike in the March monetary policy meeting looks warranted. Meanwhile, UK Finance Minister (FM) Jeremy Hunt is facing calls from within his Conservative Party to cut taxes in his March 15 budget and from trade unions to raise pay for public service workers, as reported by Reuters, which could propel inflationary pressures further. On the Eurozone front, clarity on the extent of the rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde has eased some uncertainty. ECB Lagarde has announced a continuation of 50 bps rate hike spree for March to keep the downside momentum in Eurozone inflation intact.
Bank of England is expected to hike the rate by 25bp. Kelvin Wong talks Euro against British pound

The EUR/GBP Cross Pair Is Expected Further Downside Movement

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 24.02.2023 08:46
EUR/GBP retreats from intraday high, snaps two-day rebound from monthly low. One-week-old resistance line, key Fibonacci retracement level challenge immediate upside. 0.8840 appears a tough nut to crack for the EUR/GBP bulls. Multiple levels surrounding 0.8760 can probe bears afterward. EUR/GBP bears return to the table, after a two-day absence, as the quote eases from the intraday high to 0.8815 during the initial hour of Friday’s European session. In doing so, the cross-currency pair fades bounce off the lowest levels since January 31 while retreating from the convergence of the one-week-long descending trend line and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of January 19 to February 03 upside, close to 0.8820 at the latest. Adding strength to the pullback moves is the sluggish RSI (14) near the 50 levels, as well as the pair’s previous downside break of the support lines from late January. As a result, the EUR/GBP bears are all set to revisit the latest trough surrounding 0.8780. However, multiple levels marked during late January could challenge the pair sellers near 0.8760 then after. Should the quote remains weak past 0.8760, the odds of witnessing a fresh low of the year 2023, currently around 0.8720 can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, a successful break of the 0.8820 resistance confluence isn’t an open welcome to the EUR/GBP bulls as the previous support line from January 30, around 0.8830 by the press time, could challenge the upside moves. It’s worth noting that the support-turned-resistance from January 19 joins the 200-Simple Moving Average (SMA) to highlight the 0.8840 as the key upside hurdle. EUR/GBP: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected
FX Daily: Upbeat China PMIs lift the mood

FX Daily: Upbeat China PMIs lift the mood

ING Economics ING Economics 01.03.2023 09:50
Financial markets are caught between the two narratives of a softer landing (helped by China's reopening) and sticky inflation keeping policy rates higher for longer. That will probably keep bond markets on the back foot and FX markets volatile in ranges. Today's highlights will be PMI releases around the world and presumably high German inflation USD: Foreign Direct Investment trends of interest The dollar has softened marginally in Europe and emerging market currencies are generally bid after China released an encouraging set of February PMIs. There were strong rebounds for both the manufacturing and service sectors which are feeding the narrative that a 2023 China recovery is the real deal. The PMIs come ahead of this weekend's 'Two Sessions' political gathering where we expect a growth target of 5.5-6.0% to be outlined. So far, so good and the China PMI data trumped some local news where AUD/USD has ended up higher on the session despite some softer-than-expected GDP and CPI data. Catching our eye this morning has been a survey by the US Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) that only 45% of American companies see China as their top three investment destination, compared to 60% a year ago. Clearly, geopolitics is driving this. Of the 24% of companies which said they might relocate out of China, one-third said they would relocate to the US. This topic of re-shoring/friendshoring will be an important multi-year factor driving Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) trends and could provide some resistance to those looking for the secular decline of the dollar. On that subject, we also note that Tesla will be building its next plant in Mexico. That only adds to the attraction of the Mexican peso, which remains our high yield/EM currency of choice. Back to today. The US releases ISM manufacturing data which should remain soft at 48. More interest will be had in Friday's services ISM. We suspect the China PMI story might dominate FX trading today and maintain a slightly offered tone for the dollar. Yet DXY will probably trade well within Monday's range of 104.55-105.35. Chris Turner EUR: Inflation, inflation, inflation EUR/USD got a lift yesterday from data showing Spanish February core inflation pushing to a new cycle high. The fact that Spanish core inflation includes food may not mean such a large read-through to tomorrow's eurozone core CPI data which is expected at 5.3% year-on-year. Yet our team thinks that this figure could now push up to a new cycle high of 5.4/5.5%. The worrying trend in prices continues to feed into European Central Bank expectations where the market looks to be pricing an extended tightening cycle into 2024, with the deposit rate (now 2.50%) possibly being raised as high as 4.00%. Feeding into that story today will be German CPI, which is released around 14CET. The continued re-pricing of the ECB curve is providing EUR/USD with some support against higher US rates and suggesting 1.05 will be the bottom of the EUR/USD's first quarter range after all. Certainly, the disinflation story is taking a back seat this month.  Today, we have a few ECB speakers and we should expect a relatively quiet 1.0565-1.0645 range for EUR/USD. The more aggressive ECB pricing is also providing some support to EUR/CHF, which looks like it might end March near our 1.00 target. Chris Turner GBP: More focus on the Northern Ireland deal Yesterday, we wrote a piece on what the new Northern Ireland deal - or 'Windsor Framework' - meant for sterling. While welcome news, we doubted that it would prove a game changer for sterling. Some other FX strategists felt that the news could be a lot more positive for sterling - even triggering a 2/3% rally in the pound were the DUP to come on board, support the deal and return to government in Northern Ireland.  We think the small rally in the pound that was seen (and has since partially reversed) is probably sufficient in that it reflects a warmer political relationship between the UK and the EU. We doubt any approval by the DUP makes much difference to the pound. As we discussed in the article, weak UK growth and an increasingly hawkish ECB will probably keep EUR/GBP supported for most of the year.  We do note, however, that some of last year's policy uncertainty is still being taken out of sterling via the FX options market. For example, the one-year EUR/GBP risk reversal - the price for a EUR call option over an equivalent EUR put option - has fallen to 0.95% from 2.5% last September. And one-year EUR/GBP traded volatility has fallen to 7% from 11%. But those moves may well have come far enough for the time being. Our baseline sees EUR/GBP staying supported under 0.88. Look out for a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at 11CET today. Money markets price the Bank Rate at 4.75% into September. Our team thinks that BoE rates will not need to be hiked that far, yet with inflation staying high for the time being, Governor Bailey may find it too early to disabuse the markets of that pricing. GBP/USD could drift back to 1.2100 on the slightly softer dollar today. Chris Turner CEE: Gas prices support the region again The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) left rates unchanged yesterday. Even though at face value it looks like nothing has changed, our impression is that the central bank still means business when it comes to fighting inflation and was able to sound a bit more hawkish. The central bank will not be distracted by promises and outliers. The NBH wants to see a permanent improvement in every aspect and will not rush policy easing. However, looking at the market reaction, it is clear that the market already understood the NBH's message in January and the February meeting did not bring much fresh news. As we mentioned in our NBH preview, we expect the forint to take a break in March and the central bank meeting is the last chance for gains below 380 EUR/HUF for now. We remain positive on the forint, but the current drivers have run out of steam. Plus we could see some negative news in the EU story in the coming days and a downgrade in the outlook from Moody's this Friday.  Today, we will see the PMIs across the region for February. We expect a slight improvement in sentiment in Poland and the Czech Republic and a deterioration in Hungary. In Hungary, the PPI for January will be published. The Czech Republic's state budget numbers for February will also be revealed, which could shed more light on the financing and issuance of CZGBs.  In the FX market, we have seen new gains for CEE again in recent days. The Czech koruna, in particular, has attracted attention, breaking below 23.50 EUR/CZK for the first time since 2008. The main reason, in our view, is the renewed decline in gas prices and the testing of new lows. However, the rest of the market does not indicate favourable conditions for the koruna and the region. With core rates rising further, interest rate differentials have compressed across the board and the US dollar is once again on the stronger side. Thus, we are hard-pressed to find reasons to see the current gains as sustainable.  Frantisek Taborsky  Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Bank of England is expected to hike the rate by 25bp. Kelvin Wong talks Euro against British pound

Analysis Of Price Movement Of The EUR/GBP Cross Pair

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 10.03.2023 09:02
EUR/GBP takes offers to refresh intraday low, prints three-day downtrend. UK GDP improved in January, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production deteriorated. Hopes of Britain’s economic rebound due to the latest reshuffle in governing policies, Brexit allow GBP to remain firmer. BoE versus ECB drama could check pair sellers as the key data begins in London. EUR/GBP slides 10 pips to refresh intraday low near 0.8860 as the UK’s Office for National Statistics releases the monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on early Friday. It should be noted that the optimism surrounding the British economic transition and mixed sentiment, as well as likely challenges for the Euro, seem to exert additional downside pressure on the cross-currency pair. UK GDP grew 0.3% MoM in January versus 0.1% expected and -0.5% previous, which in turn pushes back the recession woes and propels the British Pound (GBP) despite mixed readings on the other fronts. That said, UK Industrial Production figures reversed the 0.3% previous expansion with -0.3% MoM marks whereas the Manufacturing Production growth dropped to -0.4% compared to -0.1% market forecasts and 0.0% prior. Also read: UK Manufacturing Production declines 0.4% MoM in January vs. -0.1% expected Elsewhere, hopes of economic recovery and more stock market listings seem to help the Cable pair amid a light calendar during the week. “The country's economy is on track to shrink less than expected this year and avoid the two-quarters of negative growth which mark a technical recession,” the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) forecast on Wednesday per Reuters. Further, Britain’s finance ministry said on Wednesday it will launch a review into how investor research on companies could be improved to attract more listings, a step that follows a decision by UK chip designer Arm Ltd to only list in New York, reported Reuters. On the same line, Britain's revamped financial market rules will largely be aligned with U.S. and European Union regulations to minimize disruption to global companies, its financial services minister Andrew Griffith said on Thursday per Reuters. It should be noted that Bank of England (BoE) policy maker Swati Dhingra warned against interest rate hikes on Wednesday while saying that overtightening poses a more material risk at this point. On the other hand, fears of more economic pain for the bloc amid geopolitical tensions with Russia and sticky inflation, as well as higher rates, seem to drag the Euro. It should be noted that the risk-off mood underpins the US Dollar’s haven demand and reduces the demand of its major rival, namely the EUR. Having witnessed the initial market reaction to the UK’s data dump, EUR/GBP pair traders may concentrate on European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde for clear directions. Also important to watch will be a slew of top-tier data from the US and Canada that can entertain the momentum traders across the board. Technical analysis Failure to overcome the 0.8930 horizontal hurdle joins the EUR/GBP pair’s clear downside break of a one-week-old ascending trend line, around 0.8895 by the press time, to direct bears towards the 100-DMA support of 0.8765.
If The Bank Of England Hike Interest Rates Again Later This Month Will Exert Downward Pressure On The EUR/GBP Cross

If The Bank Of England Hike Interest Rates Again Later This Month Will Exert Downward Pressure On The EUR/GBP Cross

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.03.2023 10:31
EUR/GBP drifts lower for the fifth straight day and drops to a nearly two-week low on Tuesday. The GBP’s relative outperformance comes amid rising bets for additional rate hikes by the BoE. The mixed UK jobs data fails to push back against hawkish BoE expectations or lend any support. Speculations for more jumbo rate hikes by the ECB warrant caution for aggressive bearish traders. The EUR/GBP cross remains under some selling pressure for the fifth successive day on Tuesday and drops to a nearly two-week low during the early European session. The selling bias remains unabated following the release of the mixed UK monthly employment details and drags spot prices below the 0.8800 mark, with bears now eyeing to challenge a technically significant 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). In fact, the UK Office for National Statistics reported that the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits fell by 11.2K in February, less than the 12.4 decline anticipated. The slight disappointment, however, was offset by a sharp downward revision of the previous month's reading to show a drop of 30.3K in the Claimant Count Change against the 12.9 fall estimated. Furthermore, the jobless rate held steady at 3.7% during the three months to January as compared to a modest uptick to 3.8%, while the rolling three-month average indicated that the UK wages are cooling. Nevertheless, the data is strong enough to allow the Bank of England (BoE) to hike interest rates again later this month, which continues to underpin the British Pound and exerts downward pressure on the EUR/GBP cross. Apart from this, a goodish pickup in the US Dollar demand is seen weighing on the shared currency, which further contributes to the heavily offered tone surrounding the EUR/GBP cross. That said, the recent hawkish comments by several European Central Bank (ECB) officials, stressing the need for more interest rate hikes beyond March, could lend some support to the Euro. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bearish bets ahead of the ECB monetary policy meeting, scheduled on Thursday. The focus will then shift to the BoE meeting next week, which should help determine the next leg of a directional move for the cross. Hence, any subsequent decline is more likely to find decent support near the 100-day SMA, which should act as a pivotal point ahead of the key central bank event risks.

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