eur usd investing

eur usd investing

The US dollar rewrote its 1.5-year highs on Thursday, sending EURUSD under 1.1150. After the FOMC meeting, the pair fell in total by 1.5%, leaving a two-month consolidation with a sharp movement. Friday's small rollback from extremes is likely a local profit fixation by the end of the week and month. History suggests that the US currency begins to add about 2-3 quarters before the first rate hike and continues to be in positive territory for about the same time after. We believe that this long story should be adjusted to the new reality in which interest rates are the starting point. Namely, the first point of tightening monetary conditions is now the beginning of the curtailment of purchases on the balance sheet and not the first increase. The start of the dollar's growth last year was the beginning of a public discussion of curtailment. And now, seven months later, the dollar is halfway up with an 8.5% increase from the area of last year's lows. The second half of this wave is unlikely to be as powerful. We only assume that the dollar has a 3-4% growth potential in the area of 100.3-101 due to monetary policy changes. This will return the US currency to the area of steady highs in 2020, excluding two weeks of the most violent market crash. The EURUSD rate in this scenario may fall to 1.07-1.08 before finding a more substantial base of buyers. However, investors and traders should also remember that monetary policy is far from the only driver for currencies. The markets' attention can quickly switch to the debt sustainability of the Eurozone countries and the pace of economic recovery in the world.

Thursday’s data showed that consumer prices in the US advanced from 7.0% to 7.5% in January, more than 7.3% penciled in by analysts. The Fed hawks came back in charge aggressively following the US inflation print as St Louis President Bullard said he’d ‘like to see 100 basis points in the bag by July 1’. All three major US indices were moody yesterday, but Nasdaq led losses as it’s the most sensitive to the rate changes. Rising hawkish noises from the Federal Reserve (Fed) backed the US dollar. The EURUSD is back below the 1.14 mark and Christine Lagarde insists that acting too fast could choke the economy’s recovery, but not acting at all will choke the economy, as well. In commodities, gold first rallied than fell warning again that it may not be the best inflation hegde at the current levels, but commodity ETFs and energy-heavy stock indices are. In this episode, you will find my favorite inflation hedge plays. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:30 Inflation & Fed talk 2:20 Risk appetite: hammered 3:32 Bitcoin: NOT the best macro play for this year 4:51 USD up, EUR down, but… 6:00 Best inflation hedge ideas Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.

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