eur to chf

EURCHF is overall bearish trading inside the brown channelAs per my trading style/plan; Here are the two strong zones where I will be looking for high probability buy setups: I call them War Zones, (highlighted in Purple circles) Zone 1: (around 1.025) This highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the green resistance and the red trendline. (acting as non-horizontal resistance) Zone 2: (around 1.0) This highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the blue support and lower brown trendline. (acting as non-horizontal support) As per my trading style: As EURCHF approaches one of the purple circles, I will be looking for reversal setups (like a double bottom /top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich

DAILY: Left Chart. EURCHF is overall bearish and now approaching a resistance so we will be looking for sell setups on lower timeframes. H1: Right Chart EURCHF is forming a channel in red but the lower trendline is not valid yet, so we are waiting for a new swing low to form around it to consider it our trigger swing. Read next: Altcoins' Rally: Solana (SOL) Soars Even More, DOT and SHIBA INU Do The Same! | FXMAG.COM Trigger => Waiting for that swing low to form and then sell after a momentum candle close below it (gray zone) Meanwhile, until the sell is activated, EURCHF can still trade higher. Read next: (UKOIL) Brent Crude Oil Spikes to Highest Price For April, (NGAS) Natural Gas Hitting Pre-2008 Prices, Cotton Planting Has Begun Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich

Summary: The US Dollar continues to strengthen. The SNB shows no intention of tightening their monetary policy to fight inflation. GBP weakens amidst a slowing economy. EURO continues to weaken against the USD. Since the market opened today, the Euro has weakened by a further 0.15%, this continuing weakening comes as a result of strong U.S interest rates with little indication of the European Central Bank (ECB) attempting to play catch up. This interest rate differential between the United States and the Euro continues to favor the US Dollar. The likelihood of us seeing the EURO strengthen against the US Dollar will probably depend on the future decisions of the Federal Reserve. The market sentiment on this currency pair remains bearish. EUR/USD Price Chart   Read next: US Dollar (USD) Continues To Trump Euro (EUR) And British Pound (GBP). EUR Fails To Get Boost Post Macron Election Victory - Good Morning Forex!    GBP Weakens against most major currencies. As of the market open this morning market sentiment for this currency pair is showing bullish signals. The GBP continues to weaken against the Euro for the third consecutive month. The weakening of the GBP comes in the middle of a sharp fall in the global stock markets, this is heavily impacting foreign exchange markets. In addition, the slowing of the UK economy is not helping the currency to recover. It is concerning that the GBP is weakening against most major currencies. EUR/GBP Price Chart CHF weakens against the Euro. Market sentiment for this currency pair is showing bullish signals as the Euro strengthens against the Swiss Franc. The inflation rate in Switzerland reached a 13 year high but the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is showing no indication of swaying from their loose monetary policy to fight against this inflation. EUR/CHF Price Chart USD/CHF The market sentiment for this currency pair is showing bearish signals since the market opened this morning. The USD has been strengthening against the CHF, this comes as a result of the hawkish Fed amidst their fight against inflation at the same time the SNB is showing no intention of increasing interest rates due to the belief that this high inflation period is temporary. In addition, the SNB said it would limit the Swiss Franc’s currency appreciation after reaching a 7 year high against the Euro after the Russia-Ukraine war. USD/CHF Price Chart   Read next: Bitcoin Price Back on The Rise, Consumer Spending In The UK Falls In Light Of Inflation And The US Dollar Continues to Strengthen    Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, tradingeconomics.com  

Summary: Market sentiment turns bullish for the EUR/USD currency pair. Pound Sterling is facing selling pressure. Investor sentiment for the AUD changes. CHF/JPY finding a new trading range. Read next: US Dollar (USD) Expected To Strengthen As Investors Await Fed’s Interest Announcement (EUR/USD, AUD/USD), BoE are Expected To Raise Their Interest Rates (EUR/GBP), (AUD/USD) Showing Mixed Market Sentiment Signals, USD/CHF Is Bullish  ECB reveals the possible increase in interest rates in July The market sentiment on Thursday for this currency pair is showing bullish signals. On Wednesday the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that there is a strong possibility that another 50bp hike in interest rates is possible, as the hawkish Fed continues in their fight against inflation. The bullish market sentiment comes with increasing investor confidence in the EUR after the European Central Bank (ECB) revealed that an increase in the interest rates could be possible in July. EUR/USD Price Chart Pound Sterling losing ground on the forex market The EUR/GBP currency pair is currently showing mixed market sentiment. The GBP is facing pressure against the EUR, this comes hours before the Bank of England (BoE) is set to announce interest rate hikes and the possibility of quantitative tightening plans (process of selling some of the bonds purchased under quantitative easing). The GBP has lost ground against most other currencies, reflecting the negative investor sentiment towards the Pound Sterling. In addition, investor confidence in the EUR has improved. EUR/GBP Price Chart AUD gains on JPY overnight Investor sentiment is currently showing bullish signals. The price of this currency pair strengthened since Wednesday as a result of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) deciding to tighten their monetary policy. Investor sentiment for the AUD has turned positive, despite the recent losses faced by this currency. AUD/JPY Price Chart CHF/JPY signalling bullish market sentiment Both of these currencies are viewed as safe-haven currencies, due to their financial properties and low interest rates. Market sentiment is still bullish for this currency pair. The CHF/JPY tend to trade within similar ranges, which is unsurprising due to their similar fundamental characteristics, right now the currency pair is finding a new range to trade in. CHF/JPY Price Chart Read next: (EUR/USD) US Dollar Continues To Strengthen, BoEs Inflation Forecast and Economic Outlook Due On Thursday - Good Morning Forex! Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com

Summary: Euro showing upside potential. UK economic data exceeds market expectations. SNB turns hawkish, which acts in favour of the CHF. Investors turning to JPY in times of market uncertainty. Read next: (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP) Market Participants Betting On A More Hawkish ECB, A Dovish BoJ Weighs On The Safe-Haven Currency (USD/JPY) - Good Morning Forex!  The US Dollar is likely to experience volatility during the next trading week. Market sentiment for this major currency pair is reflecting a bullish market sentiment. The next trading week is full of economic data releases which are likely to impact the US Dollar, on Thursday the Fed’s preferred inflation reading PCE will give the market an indication of the growing pressures in the U.S. The Euro is also showing upside potential as investors expect the European Central Bank (ECB) will tighten their monetary policy during the summer. EUR/USD Price Chart UK retail data exceeds market expectations. Market sentiment for this currency pair is showing mixed signals. The GBP saw a positive market turn around on Friday after a positive market turnaround. UK sales volume data raised by 1.4% in April following a fall of 1.2% during March. The data release exceeded the market expectation of -0.2%. The data shows that UK households are showing resilience in the current economic environment. EUR/GBP Price Chart CHF rallies on Friday Market sentiment is showing bearish signals for this currency pair. On Thursday the Swiss Franc began to rally after the president of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced that they are ready to act on the rising inflation which is currently at 2.5%. EUR/CHF Price Chart GBP/JPY currency pair Market sentiment is showing bearish signals for this currency pair. This currency pair is sensitive to risk appetite, as investors begin to turn away from risky investments, the JPY tends to strengthen due to its safe-haven asset. GBP/JPY Price Chart Read next:Major Index NASDAQ (IXIC) Sell Off After Equities Fall, Will the ECB Turn Hawkish?  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com

The Swiss National Bank holds its quarterly monetary policy meeting on Thursday and is expected to hike its policy rate by around 75bp to 0.50%. The SNB has also been using FX policy to fight inflation. We think the SNB will continue to guide EUR/CHF lower at a rate of around 5-7% a year, in order to keep its real exchange rate stable A stable real exchange rate requires a lower EUR/CHF Since June, the SNB has been very clear: after years of fighting deflation, inflation is currently considered too high and the SNB wants to react by raising its interest rate. Inflation reached 3.5% in August, well below the inflation rate of neighbouring countries but above the SNB's target of between 0% and 2%. Since the SNB is no longer fighting an overvalued exchange rate, but rather believes that a strong Swiss franc is favourable, it can now raise interest rates quickly, without necessarily following the ECB's moves. This is why it moved ahead of the ECB by raising rates by 50 basis points in June. There is little doubt that the SNB will raise rates by at least 75 basis points at Thursday's meeting. A 100 basis point hike like the Riksbank did is not out of the question, especially since the SNB only meets once every quarter, unlike other central banks. However, with inflation "only" at 3.5% in Switzerland and the strength of the Swiss franc allowing imported inflation to fall, 100 points might be a bit too much of a move, so a 75 basis point hike remains more likely. Turning to FX matters, EUR/CHF has come steadily lower since June. Driving this trend have been some key statements from the SNB that (i) it wants to keep the real exchange rate stable and (ii) it will intervene on both sides of the FX market. In practice, we think that means the SNB wants to manage EUR/CHF lower. At the heart of the story is a more hawkish SNB and its view that as a small, open economy a weaker real exchange rate is inappropriate right now in that it would be providing additional stimulus at a time when CPI is overshooting its close to, but not over 2% target. What does a stable real exchange rate mean in practice? In the case of Switzerland, where inflation amongst its trading partners is running nearly 5% higher than in Switzerland, it means that a nominal 5% appreciation of the trade-weighted exchange rate is required to keep the real exchange rate stable. Rather conveniently, as we show in our chart below, the recent bout of Swiss franc strength leaves the trade-weighted Swiss franc around 5% stronger on a year-on-year basis. Not being a member of the G20 grouping allows Switzerland a little more latitude with its FX practices. And the above analysis suggests the SNB may be running a managed float here. With huge FX reserves of close to CHF900bn, the SNB remains a major force to be reckoned with and has the firepower to back up this managed float. Hence the remarks from the SNB in June that it planned to intervene on both sides of the market. Like the Czech National Bank (CNB), the SNB has previously experimented with FX floors, but the managed float underway today is more akin to activity undertaken by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) which more formally uses a managed float in its monetary toolkit. CHF: Real exchange rate stable YoY, nominal exchange rate +5% YoY Source: SNB, ING forecasts What does this mean for EUR/CHF? Away from the arcane concept of a real or nominal trade-weighted Swiss franc, what does this all mean to the more familiar EUR/CHF? First, it is important that the two biggest weights in the trade-weighted Swiss franc are: (i) the euro at 51% and (ii) the dollar at 23%. If the SNB wants a stronger trade-weighted Swiss franc then clearly EUR/CHF and USD/CHF are going to have to play their parts. Secondly, we have said that the SNB wants to keep the real CHF stable. In the chart above, we present our inflation forecasts, which show the inflation differential staying at around 5% into 2Q23 and only dropping back to zero by end 23. The argument then is that the SNB continues to manage the Swiss trade-weighted index firmer at this 5% year-on-year rate into next Spring before slowing the pace of appreciation. Thirdly, there are many moving parts in the trade-weighted exchange rate, but crucially our stronger dollar view means that USD/CHF may not come lower as the SNB wishes. This places a greater burden on the adjustment in EUR/CHF. Assuming USD/CHF stays flat, EUR/CHF would need to fall at around a 7% per annum rate to get the trade-weighted CHF stronger by 5%. Bringing it all together – and assuming that the SNB has the wherewithal to control EUR/CHF – we can argue that to achieve its objective of keep the real exchange rate stable according to our inflation forecasts, the SNB could be managing EUR/CHF on something like the following path… 4Q22 0.93, 1Q23 0.92, 2Q23 0.91 and flat-lining near 0.90 in 2H23. Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The CHF is the second-best performing major currency against the USD based on a one-month rolling basis. The recent four weeks of up move of USD/CHF has flashed out bullish exhaustion conditions that advocate the potential continuation of its medium-term impulsive down move. 0.8800/8830 is the key resistance zone to watch on the USD/CHF. In the past four weeks, the Swiss Franc (CHF) is the second best-performing major currency against the USD where the CHF just depreciated by -1.40% with the GBP that has come in the first place (-0.67% against the USD) based on a one-month rolling calculation as of 22 August 2023 at this time of the writing.         Fig 1:  Rolling 1-month performance of USD against major currencies as of 22 August 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) In the lens of technical analysis, the rally of +269 pips that was seen on the USD/CHF from its 27 July 2023 low of 0.8553 to the recent 21 August 2023 high of 0.8828 is likely to be a corrective rebound within a medium-term downtrend that is still intact since its 8 March 2023 due to the emergence of several bullish exhaustion elements.     Daily bearish candlestick emerged right at descending channel resistance     Fig 2:  USD/CHF medium-term trend as of 22 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Yesterday’s price action of USD/CHF has staged a bearish reaction right at the upper boundary of the medium-term descending channel that coincides with the downward-sloping 50-day moving average with both acting as a confluence of resistance at 0.8830.     Started to evolve into a minor downtrend     Fig 3:  USD/CHF minor short-term trend as of 22 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Since its 21 August 2023 high of 0.8828, the price actions of USD/CHF have started to oscillate into a minor downtrend in a series of “lower highs and lower lows”. Watch the 0.8800 key short-term pivotal resistance a break below 0.8755 near-term support (also the 20-day moving average) exposing the next support at 0.8700 (minor swing lows of 4/10 August 2023) in the first step. On the flip side, a clearance above 0.8800 negates the bearish tone to set sight again on the 0.8830 medium-term resistance.