environment

Merger to finalise by September

If the environment remains supportive and market stability is maintained, the NBH is going to continue its series of gradual interest rate cuts of 100bps. In our base case, the base rate and the effective rate should merge accordingly at 13% at the September rate decision. There was a minor tweak to the forward guidance in the latest press release, with the term “prolonged period” being dropped as the Monetary Council assessed that maintaining the current level of the base rate will ensure price stability. We believe that this tiny shift might be the first hint that, following the expected merger of the effective rate with the base rate in September, easing will continue without a pause. In our assessment, this would be roughly in line with recent market pricing.

 

Our market views

The Hungarian forint is gradually normalising following the sell-off two weeks ago, which affected the whole region. We see global momentum and market overvaluation

Crypto: Ethereum - Altcoin Correction Completed?

What Is Chia Coin? - (XCH) - First New Nakamoto Coin Since Bitcoin Launch (2009)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.04.2022 09:12
Summary: Chia altcoin is not a new coin, but it is the first new Nakamoto coin since Bitcoin launched in 2009. The Nakamoto consensus. Chias new blockchain programming language, Chialisp. Chias price correlation with other cryptocurrencies. Chia believes that by using the unused space already in circulation, they believe they will be more energy efficient. Chia cryptocurrency is a type of crypto that aims to use the space already in circulation (proof of space and time), their mission statement aims to build a more sustainable, more secure and more powerful blockchain. Chia believes that by using the unused space already in circulation, they will be more energy efficient. The coin is based on an innovative consensus algorithm which leveraged the over-allocated hard drive space to create the first new Nakamoto consensus since Bitcoin in 2009. Read next: A Reward For A Transaction!? What Is Kishu Inu Coin? ($KISHU) Let's Take A Look At This New Altcoin  We have the Nakamoto consensus to thank for the cryptocurrencies we have today. We have the Nakamoto consensus to thank for the cryptocurrencies we have today, it is a set of rules that verifies the legitimacy of a blockchain network. The crypto uses the ‘proof of space and time’ which allows coin farmers to prove that they allocate unused harddrive space to the network. The proof of time and space improves the attack resistance of the network by 51%. Chia is as secure as other proof of work cryptos whilst being less energy intensive. Chia delivers a high quality coin, with the safety and security inline with Bitcoin along with the functional benefit of a purpose built and more secure on chain smart coin environment. Read next: (KO) Coca-Cola Earnings Posted Exceeding Expectations, Elon Musk’s Target on Twitter (TWTR) Coming To Life!? | FXMAG.COM Chia has created a new innovative blockchain programming language called Chialisp, it is secure, powerful and easy to audit. Chia claims the Chialisp is a superior on-chain smart transaction development environment that will unlock the transparency, security and ease of use that cryptocurrencies promise. There are also downsides to this coin, one being that there is the possibility that the harddrives get stressed and break. In addition the Chia coin sucks energy, they use energy for storage, networking for the coin and other aspects, in a 2017 report Chia reported that they produce 15.04 metric tons of CO2 per year. Although this coin is more energy efficient than Bitcoin and other crypto coins, it has a long way to go before becoming more environmentally friendly and more sustainable. In January Chia announced its plans to launch a native peer-to-peer exchange service for its wallet holders. They will launch a new coin which will be a us-dollar denominated stablecoin and will act as a support to the new exchange. The market sentiment for this coin is reflecting as bearish as of today. The price of Chia coin is negatively correlated with the top 10 crypto coins by market cap - excluding Tether (USDT) and negatively correlated with the top 100 crypto coins by market cap - excluding all stablecoins. According to coindesk.com, the price of Chia Crypto is only expected to increase in the coming weeks. Chia Network Price Chart Summary of the advantages of Chia coin: The coin uses 0.12% of the energy that Bitcoin uses and 0.23% of the energy that Ethereum uses. Better security due to its more decentralized blockchain. More eco-friendly than other crypto coins. Read next: Elon Musk-Twitter (TWTR): What Will It Be Musk?  Sources: coindesk.com, chia.net, coinmarketcap.com, datacenterdynamics.com, coindesk.com
BOC Rate Hike Odds Rise to 28.8% as Canada's Economy Shows Resilience

COT Bonds Futures Charts: Speculator bets higher this week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 15.05.2022 15:14
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Bonds market speculator bets mostly rose this week as seven out of the eight bond markets we cover saw higher positioning this week. Most of these markets are deeply bearish (speculator levels and price levels) as bond markets have been declining mightily in this higher interest rate environment this year. This week’s rise in bond speculator bets will likely be short-lived although there have been increasing calls that bond markets may have hit or are approaching a short term bottom. Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were 2-Year Bond (2,342 contracts), Eurodollar (87,521 contracts), 10-Year Bond (61,565 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (15,302 contracts), Long US Bond (1,942 contracts), Fed Funds (104,415 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (7,666 contracts). The only market with declining speculator bets this week was the 5-Year Bond (-6,738 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend May-10-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index Eurodollar 10,439,124 33 -2,600,587 3 3,030,504 97 -429,917 10 FedFunds 1,750,404 55 49,162 46 -49,266 54 104 60 2-Year 2,264,774 21 -126,829 57 201,609 64 -74,780 17 Long T-Bond 1,207,560 50 15,453 90 -4,991 19 -10,462 44 10-Year 3,722,697 45 -85,972 59 268,376 54 -182,404 36 5-Year 3,813,677 38 -325,674 26 502,383 75 -176,709 32   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,600,587 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 87,521 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,688,108 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.4 75.3 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.3 46.3 8.2 – Net Position: -2,600,587 3,030,504 -429,917 – Gross Longs: 356,101 7,861,403 422,820 – Gross Shorts: 2,956,688 4,830,899 852,737 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.3 96.6 9.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.3 3.2 -0.4   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 49,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 104,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,253 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.9 75.2 2.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.1 78.0 2.3 – Net Position: 49,162 -49,266 104 – Gross Longs: 103,238 1,316,147 39,627 – Gross Shorts: 54,076 1,365,413 39,523 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.7 53.9 60.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.8 -10.3 53.3   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -126,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,171 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.1 77.3 6.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.7 68.4 9.5 – Net Position: -126,829 201,609 -74,780 – Gross Longs: 275,153 1,751,572 140,782 – Gross Shorts: 401,982 1,549,963 215,562 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.7 63.9 17.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.7 8.7 11.6   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -325,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -318,936 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.6 83.0 7.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.2 69.9 11.8 – Net Position: -325,674 502,383 -176,709 – Gross Longs: 291,527 3,167,247 271,640 – Gross Shorts: 617,201 2,664,864 448,349 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.1 74.5 32.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.3 -11.7 16.6   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -85,972 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 61,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -147,537 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 76.5 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.2 69.2 13.3 – Net Position: -85,972 268,376 -182,404 – Gross Longs: 406,123 2,846,309 313,590 – Gross Shorts: 492,095 2,577,933 495,994 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.4 53.8 36.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 59.4 -46.2 -0.3   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -95,416 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 15,302 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,718 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.5 82.9 11.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.2 66.3 20.3 – Net Position: -95,416 207,218 -111,802 – Gross Longs: 56,783 1,034,536 141,487 – Gross Shorts: 152,199 827,318 253,289 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.0 93.4 48.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.7 0.4 12.4   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,942 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,511 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 72.1 13.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.6 72.5 13.8 – Net Position: 15,453 -4,991 -10,462 – Gross Longs: 131,916 870,932 156,698 – Gross Shorts: 116,463 875,923 167,160 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.6 18.5 44.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.2 -0.6 1.9   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -311,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -319,179 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.6 84.6 11.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.2 61.6 9.8 – Net Position: -311,513 290,655 20,858 – Gross Longs: 45,084 1,069,894 144,208 – Gross Shorts: 356,597 779,239 123,350 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.1 57.2 43.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.9 0.8 -9.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
The Swing Overview - Week 18 2022

The Swing Overview - Week 18 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 16.05.2022 10:51
The Swing Overview - Week 18 In the war against rising inflation, central banks in the US, the UK and Australia raised interest rates this week. Britain, meanwhile, warned of the risk of a recession. The CNB also raised rates. They have thus reached their highest levels since 1999. The key interest rate in the Czech Republic is now 5.75%.   The main stock indices have weakened strongly in response to the monetary tightening policies of the major economies and are at significant support levels. The negative sentiment on the indices is confirmed by the VIX fear indicator, which is above 30. The US dollar, on the other hand, continues to ride on the winning wave. The Fed raised interest rates by 0.5% The Fed raised rates by 0.5% points on Wednesday as expected, the highest jump in 22 years. This took the interest rate to 1%. The Fed chief announced that further half a percentage point rate hikes will continue at the next meetings in June and July. Powell also stated that the US economy is doing well and that it can withstand interest rate hikes without the risk of a recession and a significant increase in unemployment.   In addition to the rate hike, the Fed announced that in June it would begin reducing the assets on the bank's balance sheet that the central bank had accumulated during the pandemic. In June, July and August, the Fed will sell $45 billion of assets a month, and starting in September it will sell $95 billion a month.   Although Powell ruled out a 0.75% rate hike at the next meetings, interest rate futures markets continue to expect that possibility with about an 80% probability. Figure 1: The CME Fed Watch tool projections of the target interest rate for the next Fed meeting on June 15, 2022 Based on these expectations, US 10-year Treasury yields continue to strengthen and have surpassed the 3% mark. The US dollar is also strengthening and it is at the highest level since January 2017 and approaching 104.  Figure 2: The US 10-year bond yields and the USD index on the daily chart   Equity indices remain under pressure The SP 500 index initially rallied strongly following the announcement of the rate hike, after Powell ruled out a 0.75% rate hike in subsequent meetings. However, markets gave back all the gains the following day as interest rate futures continue to estimate an 80% probability that the next rate hike, which will take place in June 2022, will be 0.75%.   Figure 3: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart Thus, in terms of technical analysis, the US SP 500 index continues to move in a downtrend below both the SMA 100 and EMA 50 moving averages with resistance, according to the 4 H chart, at 4,308 - 4,313. The next resistance, according to the H4 chart, is 4,360 - 4,365.  Strong resistance is at 4,500. The current support is 4 070 - 4 100.   German DAX index German industrial orders fell by 4.7% in March, which is more than expected. A major contributor to this negative result was a reduction in orders from abroad as the war in Ukraine hit demand in the manufacturing sector. The outlook is negative and some analysts suggest that the German economy is heading into recession. The reasons are the war in Ukraine, problems in supply chains and high inflation. The Dax index confirms these negative outlooks with a downward trend. Figure 4: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The index continues to move below the SMA 100 on the daily chart and on the H4 chart, confirming the bearish sentiment. The nearest support according to the H4 is 13,600 - 13,650. Resistance is 14,300 - 14,330. The next resistance is 14,592 - 14,632.   The outlook for the euro remains negative HSBC bank on Thursday significantly cut its forecast for the euro, saying it expects the euro to weaken to parity against the US dollar this year, the first major investment bank to make such a prediction.   The post-pandemic economic environment, which has been damaged by the ongoing war in Ukraine, looks challenging for the European economy, potentially forcing the European Central Bank to tighten policy slowly compared to the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has begun an aggressive rate-hiking cycle.  This has raised the prospect of the single currency falling to levels not seen in two decades. HSBC said it expects the move to happen by the fourth quarter of 2022.   ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said this week that rates may need to be raised as early as July. The precursor to any rate hike must be an end to bond purchases and that could come in late June. Markets are pricing in a 90 basis point tightening in rates this year.   Figure 5: The EURUSD on H4 and daily chart The EUR/USD pair is in a clear downtrend with resistance at 1.0650 - 1.071. The important support is 1.05, but it has already been tested several times and could be broken soon. The next support is from January 2017 at around 1.0350 - 1.040.   The Czech koruna got another injection in the form of an interest rate hike The CNB raised the interest rate by 0.75%, which exceeded analysts' expectations who projected a 0.50% rise. The current rate now stands at 5.75%, the highest since 1999. Consumer price growth continues to rise and by raising the interest rate the central bank is trying to dampen this growth by raising the interest rate. Inflation is expected to reach 15% by mid-year. The CNB has an inflation target of 2% and inflation is expected to reach these levels in 2024.   The problem is economic growth, which is slowing significantly.  But maintaining price stability is clearly more important than the negative effects of higher rates on the real economy.  Figure 6: The USD/CZK and the EUR/CZK on the daily chart The Czech koruna has so far done best on the pair with the euro, as interest rates are zero on the euro. The koruna has been weakening significantly on the USD pair in recent days. The current significant resistance on the USD/CZK is CZK 23.50 per dollar and on the EUR/CZK it is 24.70.    Bank of England warned of recession and more than 10% inflation The Bank of England sent out a strong warning that Britain faces the twin dangers of recession and inflation above 10% when it raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 1% on Thursday. The pound fell more than a cent against the US dollar and hit its lowest level since mid-2020, below $1.24, as the gloominess of the BoE's new forecasts for the world's fifth-largest economy caught investors off guard.    The BoE also said it was also concerned about the impact of renewed COVID-19 lockdowns in China, which threaten to hit supply chains again and increase inflationary pressures.    The BoE's rate hike was the fourth since December, the fastest pace of policy tightening in 25 years. The central bank also revised up its price growth forecasts, which suggest it will peak above 10% in the final three months of this year. Previously, it had expected it to peak at around 8% in April. Markets expect interest rates to reach 2-2.25% by the end of 2022.  Figure 7: The GBP/USD on weekly and daily charts In terms of technical analysis, the GBP/USD is in a downtrend. The pound is trading at levels below 1.24 pounds per dollar and has reached to the support of 1.225-1.2330. The nearest resistance according to the weekly chart is at 1.2700-1.2750.   
Eurozone Bank Lending Under Strain as Higher Rates Bite

COT Bonds Futures Charts: Speculator bets mostly lower this week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 22.05.2022 12:13
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Bonds market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had lower positioning this week. Most of these markets remain bearish (speculator levels and price levels) in the higher interest rate environment of 2022. The exceptions in the COT speculator positioning are the Fed Funds positions which recently turned positive in early April and have maintained a small bullish level in six out of the past seven weeks. The US Treasury Bond positions also turned positive in early March and have also had a small bullish position in nine out of the past eleven weeks. Overall, the bond markets with higher speculator bets for this week were Long US Bond (16,554 contracts), 5-Year Bond (65,450 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (16,954 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were the 2-Year Bond (-7,808 contracts), Eurodollar (-273,864 contracts), 10-Year Bond (-74,119 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (-2,421 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-147 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend May-17-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index Eurodollar 10,381,883 32 -2,874,451 0 3,300,959 100 -426,508 11 FedFunds 1,796,405 58 49,015 46 -45,484 54 -3,531 51 2-Year 2,376,024 26 -134,637 55 209,074 66 -74,437 18 Long T-Bond 1,244,823 57 32,007 95 -14,575 15 -17,432 39 10-Year 3,666,416 41 -160,091 48 318,592 60 -158,501 42 5-Year 3,791,540 37 -260,224 38 417,629 64 -157,405 38   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,874,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -273,864 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,600,587 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.2 76.0 3.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.9 44.2 7.8 – Net Position: -2,874,451 3,300,959 -426,508 – Gross Longs: 336,958 7,889,274 386,384 – Gross Shorts: 3,211,409 4,588,315 812,892 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 10.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.5 5.9 4.6   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 49,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,162 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.6 75.5 2.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 2.8 78.0 2.3 – Net Position: 49,015 -45,484 -3,531 – Gross Longs: 100,043 1,355,889 37,674 – Gross Shorts: 51,028 1,401,373 41,205 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.7 54.4 50.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.6 -5.3 16.5   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -134,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -126,829 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.0 76.6 5.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.6 67.8 8.9 – Net Position: -134,637 209,074 -74,437 – Gross Longs: 307,951 1,818,876 137,690 – Gross Shorts: 442,588 1,609,802 212,127 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.1 65.6 17.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.6 8.0 10.7   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -260,224 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 65,450 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -325,674 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.9 81.1 7.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.7 70.1 11.7 – Net Position: -260,224 417,629 -157,405 – Gross Longs: 298,615 3,074,092 284,595 – Gross Shorts: 558,839 2,656,463 442,000 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 37.5 64.2 37.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.7 -16.5 15.8   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -160,091 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -74,119 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,972 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.6 76.9 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.9 68.2 13.2 – Net Position: -160,091 318,592 -158,501 – Gross Longs: 314,613 2,819,008 325,049 – Gross Shorts: 474,704 2,500,416 483,550 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.1 59.7 42.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 30.8 -29.7 11.0   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -97,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,421 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,416 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.6 81.6 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.6 65.2 20.7 – Net Position: -97,837 200,995 -103,158 – Gross Longs: 56,209 1,000,137 150,063 – Gross Shorts: 154,046 799,142 253,221 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.4 91.8 53.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.6 -8.2 20.7   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 32,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 16,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,453 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.7 72.5 12.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.2 73.6 13.7 – Net Position: 32,007 -14,575 -17,432 – Gross Longs: 146,002 902,140 152,520 – Gross Shorts: 113,995 916,715 169,952 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.0 15.5 38.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.0 -7.4 -6.1   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -294,559 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 16,954 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -311,513 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.7 81.8 11.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.3 61.5 9.3 – Net Position: -294,559 264,222 30,337 – Gross Longs: 48,033 1,065,877 151,667 – Gross Shorts: 342,592 801,655 121,330 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.1 44.2 50.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.8 -21.4 5.2   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Why do we voluntarily disclose our clients' loss ratios?

Why do we voluntarily disclose our clients' loss ratios?

Purple Trading Purple Trading 03.06.2022 09:12
Why do we voluntarily disclose our clients' loss ratios? Why rather click on an ad from a brokerage firm that states that 70% of their clients' accounts are loss-making than an ad from a broker that does not disclose this statistic at all? Come with us to delve into the ins and outs of broker licensing and learn what protections you are legally entitled to as a client. Broker's licence The operation of a brokerage company involves many minor acts anchored in legislation. From the operation of the broker as a firm with employees; arranging the opening of client accounts to handling client deposits and managing the online platform through which clients trade. For all of this, a broker needs a license. While this can be issued by almost any state authority, licences of some states are more desirable than that of others. And that is due to variety of reasons. Licenses issued in so-called offshore states allow brokers to provide their clients with very attractive trading conditions. For example, the financial leverage that allows a client to multiply his or her trading position and with it also potential earnings (as well as losses) can often go as high as 1:1000 for offshore licenses. However, when it comes to client protection, offshore licenses fall somewhat short. Client protection takes many forms and one of them is the wording of the mentioned disclaimer. Thus, if you see a disclaimer below the image of an advertisement that does not state the percentage of loss but only somewhat vaguely warns of the potential risk, it is very likely that the broker to whom the advertisement belongs has an offshore license. Image: Purple Trading banner ad (see disclaimer below the button) What is a disclaimer The short phrase "XY% of client accounts lose money" and its other small permutations, which you can see for example under our online advertisements, are part of the so-called disclaimer. The disclaimer takes many forms, from a single sentence under a banner ad on Facebook to a multi-paragraph colossus in the footer of the broker's website. The purpose of the disclaimer is simple - to highlight, to those interested in trading on financial markets, the potential risks of this activity and to disclaim broker’s responsibility for their client’s eventual failure. However, the overall message of the disclaimer might be written differently. Because sometimes we see loss percentages under the advertisement of Broker A, while Broker B's disclaimer merely tells us that trading is risky. No percentage, nothing more. Image: Sample of a shorter disclaimer on the broker's page Offshore vs EU license The European Union's legal environment is characterized by a much stricter regulatory approach. This applies to the control of pharmaceuticals, and foodstuffs, but also, for example, to the control of brokerage companies. This sector is dealt with by ESMA (European Securities and Markets Authority), to which the regulators of all countries within the EU have to answer (including the regulator of Purple Trading, the Cypriot CySEC). It is ESMA that takes it upon itself to protect consumers (in this case, investors and retail traders in the financial markets). And it does so in all sorts of ways. The aforementioned client account loss ratios on brokers' marketing materials are one of them.   Other ESMA protections include:   Reduced financial leverage Financial leverage is the ratio of the amount of capital a trader puts into an account to the funds provided by the broker. In simple terms, it is essentially borrowed capital from the broker, which is not reflected in the balance of money in your account, but allows you to trade a greater volume of transactions than you could with your own money. More experienced traders can use leverage to increase their profits many times over. However, as well as profits, leverage also multiplies losses, so less-experienced traders should be wary of using leverage generously. That's also why ESMA capped leverage limit for retail clients at 1:30 in 2018, and higher leverage (up to 1:400) can only be provided by brokers to clients who have met a number of strict criteria to qualify as a so-called Professional Client.   Protection against negative balance A key aspect of client protection. If a client's trade that he had "leveraged" fails and the multiplied loss puts him in the red, the broker will pay the entire amount that is "in the red" from his pocket. Thus, the client can never lose more money than he has deposited in his account and consequently become a debtor. Negative balance protection is compulsory for all brokers operating in the EU. It is not compulsory for offshore brokers, which, combined with the high leverage offered there, can lead to very unfortunate situations.   Segregation of client deposits Forex and online trading, in general, has come a long way since its beginning in 2008. Especially in the early days, the online trading environment was highly unregulated and it was not uncommon for brokers to use capital from client deposits to fund their operations. More than that, there were also cases where the client’s capital was outright misused to enrich a select few. Brokers operating in the EU are obliged to secure clients’ funds in many ways. One is depositing client capital in accounts segregated from the capital brokers use to finance their operations. What if the broker fails to provide his clients with these guarantees? Brokers subject to such strict regulatory authorities as CySEC (cypriot based regulator under ESMA) must undergo regular audits. As part of these audits, the regulator monitors whether all the measures resulting from the licence granted by the regulator are being complied with. Should this not be the case, the broker is usually subject to a hefty fine and often even the suspension of its licence. This means that broker cannot really afford not to comply with the client protection principles of the EU regulatory environment. Conclusion Voluntary disclosure of client account loss rates under broker advertisements may seem odd. However, it is a positive signal that lets you know that the broker in question is highly regulated. Therefore, if you choose to trade with them, you are protected by a number of legislative regulations that the broker will not dare to violate. See which EU broker has the best disclaimer number
The movie that changed futures trading once and for all

The movie that changed futures trading once and for all

Purple Trading Purple Trading 14.06.2022 08:01
The movie that changed futures trading once and for all There is more than dozen of films about financial markets. However, there is only one that had such an impact that it led to a legislative change in the commodity futures market. Which movie are we talking about and what changes it introduce in regards to commodity trading? Read on! Holywood’s fascination with financial markets Holywood is no stranger to depicting the world of financial markets. The subject became particularly attractive in the 1980s, when it became clear that market capitalism was more viable economic model than central planning of the Eastern Bloc, resulting in many films set in the stock market environment, majority of which focusing on Wall Street. However, only one of these films has managed to leave a mark in the memory of viewers as well as in law textbooks. Trading Places - a probe into the world of commodity trading Brothers Mortimer and Randolp Duke are bored billionaires who own a commodities trading brokerage firm. One day, as a part of somewhat cynical bet, they decide to swap the lives of a young and promising businessman, Louis Winthorpe III (Dan Aykroyd), and a street hustler, Billy Ray Valentine (Eddie Murphy). They want to crush the dreams of the former while helping the latter to become familiar in the world of financial markets. From today's perspective, the film is a unique probe into the workings of the financial markets before they were heavily computerised. In addition to the brilliant scenes in which are the Duke brothers explaining to Billy Valentine how commodities trading works, we also get a glimpse behind the scenes at the New York Board of Trade, where commodities are traded (climactic trading scenes were actually filmed there). The bulk of the plot and the main storyline then revolves around the trading of Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice (FCOJ), specifically the futures contracts of this commodity. Eddie Murphy rule   This rule, officially titled "Section 136 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Transparency and Accountability Reform and Consumer Protection Act, under Section 746" (but commonly referred to as "the Eddie Murphy rule"), prohibits the misuse of internal government information for the purpose of trading in the commodities markets. No one likes spoilers, so if you haven't seen this movie, we won't give away the plot and the denouement of the final scene of the entire movie. We'll just mention that shorting of FCOJ futures plays an important role here. In fact, so important, that this scene is reportedly often reference by traders on the New York Stock Exchange. Figure 1: The final scene of the film that initiated the inception of "Eddie Murphy rule" (source IMDb.com) Trading FCOJ futures today Although nowadays you don't see crowded rooms full of white collar men and women trying to buy low and sell high, FCOJ futures trading still exists. The only main difference is that rooms and phones have been replaced by computer screens and cubicles. Also, virtually anyone can trade today. If you are interested in trying out CFD trading of FCOJ futures, at Purple Trading we have recently introduced this instrument to our trader platforms. Just like our heroes of Trading Places, you can short (and long) and potentialy profit from both favourable and unfavourable market situations. The only difference is that you won't be able to use government information to do so, because Eddie Murphy Rule wouldn't allow you to.
COT Week 25 Charts: Metals Speculator bets slightly higher as Gold & Silver bets gain

COT Week 25 Charts: Metals Speculator bets slightly higher as Gold & Silver bets gain

Invest Macro Invest Macro 26.06.2022 13:25
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. COT metals market speculator bets were mostly higher for the week as three out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Gold (8,689 contracts) and Silver (4,414 contracts) with Palladium (11 contracts) also showing a small positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Copper (-7,141 contracts) while Platinum (-723 contracts) also registered lower bets on the week. Notes: Highlighting the data for metals this week is the Gold positioning. Gold speculative positions rebounded a bit this week after seeing a sharp decline last week of over -20,000 contracts. The Gold net position has been mostly on the defensive since March 8th when the spec level had reached a total of +274,388 contracts which was a 61-week high, dating back to January 5th of 2021. Since then, the overall bullish position has shed a total of -111,101 contracts to settle at this week’s net standing of +163,287 contracts (just 4.4 percent level of its 3-year range). The Gold futures price, however, remains in an uptrend on the daily charts and is sitting right on a significant upward trendline that started in March of 2021. Silver positioning, much like Gold’s, has been under pressure over the past fifteen weeks. On March 8th, Silver bets reached a forty-three week high at +52,297 contracts, coinciding with the Silver futures price hitting a 2022 high of $27.49. Since then, speculator bets have cooled and have fallen in ten out of the past fifteen weeks (and by a total of -33,878 contracts) to this week’s standing of just +18,419 contracts. The Silver futures price has been on a downtrend since April, currently trading at just over $21.00 and possibly on its way towards the significant psychological level of $20.00. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Copper (27 percent) remains the only precious metals futures market that is not in an extreme bearish level (below 20 percent). A rising interest rate environment with a strong US Dollar has weighed on the precious metals category as speculator futures sentiment continues to be really weak at the moment. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Gold (-15.1 percent) and Palladium (-4.5 percent) lead the downward trends over the past six weeks. Copper (1.2 percent) and Platinum (0.2 percent) are the only two markets with positive trends over the time period. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-21-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,658,636 0 289,502 0 -323,915 100 34,413 64 Gold 500,276 14 163,287 4 -186,929 96 23,642 14 Silver 145,356 12 18,419 7 -27,250 93 8,831 4 Copper 187,170 17 -20,938 27 18,928 72 2,010 37 Palladium 7,641 6 -4,046 0 4,511 100 -465 17 Platinum 64,946 30 1,491 6 -6,397 96 4,906 30 Natural Gas 1,030,971 0 -130,869 39 85,977 58 44,892 86 Brent 173,098 18 -38,010 47 36,052 53 1,958 36 Heating Oil 268,818 23 9,564 56 -28,204 41 18,640 63 Soybeans 745,494 32 178,379 68 -152,968 38 -25,411 28 Corn 1,512,152 23 380,169 79 -326,474 25 -53,695 12 Coffee 192,832 0 49,371 81 -52,348 22 2,977 20 Sugar 779,773 0 163,111 70 -181,280 34 18,169 30 Wheat 320,326 6 19,067 44 -15,407 38 -3,660 91   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 163,287 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 154,598 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.6 24.0 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.0 61.4 4.1 – Net Position: 163,287 -186,929 23,642 – Gross Longs: 268,119 120,045 44,380 – Gross Shorts: 104,832 306,974 20,738 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.4 96.0 13.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.1 19.7 -38.5   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,419 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,005 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.5 37.7 17.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.8 56.5 11.1 – Net Position: 18,419 -27,250 8,831 – Gross Longs: 54,451 54,828 25,018 – Gross Shorts: 36,032 82,078 16,187 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.9 93.4 4.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.0 4.2 -13.8   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,141 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,797 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.8 55.5 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.0 45.3 8.0 – Net Position: -20,938 18,928 2,010 – Gross Longs: 50,230 103,789 16,909 – Gross Shorts: 71,168 84,861 14,899 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.3 72.5 36.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.2 -0.2 -7.9   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,214 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.5 43.9 13.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.2 53.7 5.4 – Net Position: 1,491 -6,397 4,906 – Gross Longs: 25,676 28,487 8,413 – Gross Shorts: 24,185 34,884 3,507 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.5 96.2 30.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.2 -1.4 12.5   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -4,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,057 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.2 74.0 12.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 66.2 15.0 18.6 – Net Position: -4,046 4,511 -465 – Gross Longs: 1,009 5,655 960 – Gross Shorts: 5,055 1,144 1,425 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 4.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.1 100.0 17.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.5 6.0 -16.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Investors? Bulls? Bears? These Series Are Linked To Finances

Investors? Bulls? Bears? These Series Are Linked To Finances

Purple Trading Purple Trading 15.07.2022 14:23
5 must-watch series from the world of finance With the boom of streaming services, investors are presented with often exciting opportunities. But today, we'll try to move away from looking at the world through the eyes of an investor and focus more on the content that streaming services offer. More accurately, we will take a look at the series that can be found on these platforms. But don’t worry, we won’t get too far from our beloved world of finance either. Financial world has always been an attractive subject not only for Hollywood screenwriters. Classics such as Wall Street (1986) and Wolf of Wall Street (2013) have not only grossed millions of dollars world-wide but even managed to convince many viewers into starting their own careers in finance. However, with the rise of streaming services, finance has also taken centre stage for a number of series. Some of the most well-known are the HBO-produced series Billions (2016) and Succession (2018). Today, let's take a look at a few lesser-known, but definitely not inferior series from the world of finance that are simply a must-watch. Devils (Sky, 2020) - a probe into investment bank’s speculation during global crises Produced by Italian broadcaster Sky, Devils is one of the most interesting European series in years. The plot follows Massimo Ruggero, who has risen from rags to riches as a head of the trading desk of the New York London Investment Bank (strikingly reminiscent of Goldman Sachs).   Massimo and his team speculate on the financial markets during the biggest events of the last 12 years. This gives viewers an insight into the behaviour of investment banks during the mortgage crisis, the Greek debt crisis and the Brexit vote, for example. The series is enriched with real time footage of international financial institutions meeting, mixing fiction with reality.   The second season premiered a few months ago and is of equal quality. With the main roles being masterfully played by Alessandro Borghi (known from the Suburra series and the film) and Patrick Dempsey (known from the Surgeons series).     Industry (HBO, 2020) - a series written by the bankers themselves Industry provides a grim and realistic look at what it's like to start a professional career in the financial sector in the heart of London. Here we follow a group of young bankers as they are trying to work their way up to a full-time position at one of London's investment banks, having to navigate this cutthroat and competitive environment as quick as possible.   The series captures well how depressing a given career can be and partially subverts any standards that may have been ingrained by titles such as Wall Street or Billions, taking off the rose-colored glasses of the viewer. Industry simply shows how challenging and competitive a career in finance can be.   As we watch the story of two main protagonists, experiencing their first successes and failures we simply have to wonder - will the desire for success and money prevail, or will the young bankers realise that there is more to life than the pursuit of money? The series, created by two former bankers, has completed its first season, with a second to follow later this year (2022).     Black Monday (Showtime, 2019) - when crisis meets satire   Welcome to the 1980s! A decade full of extravagant hairstyles, clothes and one of the biggest stock market crises in history. We're talking about "Black Monday", a single day in October 1987 during which world stock indices fell by tens of percent. As bleak as it might sound, Black Monday is the most light-hearted series on this list.   The series follows a group of traders from a second-rate Wall Street firm called the Jammer Group and uses satire and fiction to reveal the events that led to the aforementioned stock market crash. Don Cheadle, known from the Avengers franchise, stars in the lead role. The series ended after three seasons, all of which are currently available on HBO.   The Dropout (Hulu, 2022) - based on true events Enron, Worldcom and Theranos. Three of the biggest investor scams in decades. The Dropout series follows the story of Theranos - a company that promised to revolutionize blood testing. Founder Elizabeth Holmes managed to create an aura of success around herself and Theranos, fooling the biggest investment banks and the most famous investors. The company's market capitalization gradually climbed to $9 billion, which was almost unbelievable given the lack of a fully functional product.   The series reveals the rise and fall of the company and its founder, who went from being a female copy of Steve Jobs to an outlaw. However, If you're not too keen on dramatization of real events, we recommend watching the HBO documentary The Inventor: Out for blood in Silicon Valley. It also deals with this topic.   WeCrashed (Apple TV+, 2022) - when the marketing strategy goes too far   Investors who have followed the events of the US stock markets in recent years will immediately know that behind the title of this series lies the story of WeWork, a company that operates a network of co-working offices around the world. However, comparing WeWork to Theranos would be rather harsh, but there are several similarities.   The company's founder, Adam Neumann, has used a great marketing strategy to attract several major investors, most notably Softbank founder Masayoshi Son. Investors then valued the company at a hard-to-believe $47 billion ahead of its planned IPO. As the title of the series suggests, things did not go quite as planned. You can look forward to seeing well-known actors Jared Leto and Anne Hathaway in the lead roles.   Are you tempted by the world of stocks and even more so by shorting them?   At Purple Trading, you now have the opportunity to speculate on the rise and fall of more than 100 of the world's most famous companies and ride the current trend. And if you don’t feel like risking your own money, you can try it with virtual ones on our free demo account.  
US Retail Sales Boost Prospects for 3% GDP Growth, but Challenges Loom Ahead

Merger to Finalize by September: NBH to Continue Gradual Rate Cuts, Forint Normalizing, HGBs Valuations Attractive

ING Economics ING Economics 24.07.2023 10:25
Merger to finalise by September If the environment remains supportive and market stability is maintained, the NBH is going to continue its series of gradual interest rate cuts of 100bps. In our base case, the base rate and the effective rate should merge accordingly at 13% at the September rate decision. There was a minor tweak to the forward guidance in the latest press release, with the term “prolonged period” being dropped as the Monetary Council assessed that maintaining the current level of the base rate will ensure price stability. We believe that this tiny shift might be the first hint that, following the expected merger of the effective rate with the base rate in September, easing will continue without a pause. In our assessment, this would be roughly in line with recent market pricing.   Our market views The Hungarian forint is gradually normalising following the sell-off two weeks ago, which affected the whole region. We see global momentum and market overvaluation as the main reasons as local conditions improve. The market sell-off has likely lightened the heavy long positioning and we believe the massive carry will once again attract market interest. In addition, we think the market is pushing NBH to cut rates at a faster pace and the hawkish tone should be a boost going back to EUR/HUF 370. In the rates space, we see that the very short end of the IRS curve has moved significantly lower in recent weeks due to the market wanting to see a more dovish central bank in the face of better macro numbers. However, our base case is that the NBH will not move away from the set course and these bets will be disappointed. In general, we see more steepening of the curve in the 2s10s spread, but a very short end. The FRA curve should see some repricing up this week, resulting in flattening in this segment. Hungarian government bonds (HGBs) eased in July and the rest of the region caught up with the swift rally. We therefore see current valuations of HGBs as more justifiable, which could attract new buyers. Despite the fiscal slippage risk, YTD issuance has reached 60% by our calculations, which we see as more than sufficient. Moreover, recent government measures supporting HGBs and the fastest disinflation in the region should be enough to sustain demand.

currency calculator