employment figures

EUR: Lack of strong support

EUR/USD appears stuck in a relatively low volatility environment, despite feeling some pressure. The swings in the 2-year swap rate differential are not proving dramatically impactful on the pair, but the retightening of the spread from the 140bp area to the 134bp is probably offering a bit of support.

Eurozone data continued to do very little to help a rapid turnaround in the euro’s softish momentum, though. Yesterday, 2Q GDP growth was confirmed at 0.3% QoQ and employment figures at 0.2% QoQ. With forward-looking indicators pointing at an economic slowdown in key parts of the euro area, a EUR/USD rally later this year (which is still our base case) should rely primarily on a decreasing attractiveness of the dollar rather than on an idiosyncratic EUR boom.

It may be yet another rather quiet day in FX today, and barring a major surprise on the US data side – and considering the eurozone calendar is quite light – EUR/USD should keep hovering around 1

Analysing the Potential for Radical Moves in EUR/GBP Price and Factors Influencing Fluctuations

Analysing the Potential for Radical Moves in EUR/GBP Price and Factors Influencing Fluctuations

Davide Acampora Davide Acampora 31.05.2023 10:40
FXMAG.COM: Do you expect any radical moves of EUR/GBP price in the near future? What can cause such fluctuations?  As forex traders keenly observe the EUR/GBP currency pair, there is speculation surrounding the likelihood of substantial price movements in the near future. Examining the underlying factors that can trigger notable fluctuations is essential for making informed decisions in the market.   Macroeconomic indicators, including GDP growth, inflation rates, and employment figures, offer valuable insights into the potential for significant moves in the EUR/GBP price.   Based on the latest available data for Q1 of 2023, Eurozone GDP growth experienced a 1.3% increase, while the UK maintained a stable growth rate of 0.10%. Political developments exert a considerable impact on the EUR/GBP exchange rate. Notably, events such as the recent UK election or updates related to Brexit have proven to be catalysts for volatility.   Staying well-informed about key political developments is crucial, as they can significantly influence the price of this currency pair. Central bank policies play a pivotal role in shaping the EUR/GBP exchange rate.   The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) periodically announce monetary policy decisions that affect this currency pair. It is important to keep a close watch on interest rate adjustments, quantitative easing programs, and forward guidance statements.   As of the latest interest rate decision on February 2, 2023, the ECB maintained rates at 3%, while the BoE held rates at 4.5% with a slight increase of 0.25% on May 11, 2023. Global economic trends and market sentiment can also influence the EUR/GBP price.   Trade relations between the Eurozone and the UK, as well as global economic conditions, can cause significant fluctuations. Monitoring geopolitical events, risk appetite indicators, and market sentiment can provide valuable insights into potential radical moves in this currency pair.   Predicting significant shifts in the EUR/GBP price is a complex task. However, analysing key factors such as macroeconomic indicators, political developments, central bank policies, and global economic trends can enhance your understanding of potential fluctuations. As of the latest available data on May 23, 2023, at 12:51, the EUR/GBP exchange rate stands at 0.87057. Stay well-informed about the latest news and events to navigate the market effectively and make informed trading decisions.
China's Gold Reserves Surge: Insights into Metals Trade Data

Resilient US Economy and Market Recovery Driven by Future Rate Cut Expectations, Technology Sector, and Low Inflation

Maxim Manturov Maxim Manturov 29.06.2023 14:01
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are currently seeing a ~74% probability that a hike will not take place at the Fed monetary policy committee meeting in June. In addition, expectations of future rate cuts closer to the end of 2023 and continued rate cuts through 2024 are increasing, further boosting investor sentiment, supporting valuations of technology companies, growth sectors in general and contributing to the upward trajectory of the market.   Lower inflation has also played a role in the positive market performance. Inflationary pressures continue to fall, allowing consumers to maintain their purchasing power and businesses to plan for the future with greater certainty, removing uncertainty about inflation. This favourable inflation environment has strengthened investor confidence in the resilience of the economy in the 2nd half of the year, given the expected policy shift from the Fed. Moreover, the US economy has demonstrated its resilience, continuing to show growth despite relatively high interest rate levels. Key economic indicators such as GDP growth, employment figures, labour market strength and consumer spending are showing signs of stability, indicating sustained and balanced economic growth. Expectations of a soft economic landing have allayed fears of a prolonged recession and laid a solid foundation for market recovery.
Market Digest: Fed Minutes and Employment Data Spark Pessimism, Impacting Global Stock Markets and Currency Pairs

Market Digest: Fed Minutes and Employment Data Spark Pessimism, Impacting Global Stock Markets and Currency Pairs

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 10.07.2023 12:01
Global stock markets edge lower amid pessimism sparked by the latest Fed minutes and contrasting employment figures from ADP and the US Department of Labor. Obviously, investors continue to be stirred up by the potential rate hikes by global central banks, primarily the Federal Reserve. The recent private sector employment data from the ADP, which indicated strong growth in new jobs, primarily in the services sector, increased the chances of seeing an increase in rates. However, the situation became uncertain after the US Department of Labor published its official data on the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector. Reportedly, employment rose by 209,000, lower than the 225,000 the previous month. Still, this figure remains above the threshold of 200,000, indicating an overall continuing positive pace of employment growth, but with the risk of a significant fall in the future. The currency and commodities markets reacted to the news rather coolly, effectively confirming the theory that the stabilization of US inflation or the resumption of its growth could force the Fed to continue raising interest rates. Latest inflation data from China, Germany, and the US lies ahead, but more focus will be given to the consumer price index in the US. Forecast says the overall figure will fall to 3.1% y/y, but increase by 0.3% m/m. Such figures will boost risk appetite, accompanied by a weakening of dollar as treasury yields fall. The chances of seeing further rate hikes will drop as well.     EUR/USD The pair hit 1.0970. Surpassing this level amid a decrease in US inflation will push the quote 1.1100.   GBP/USD The pair trades at 1.2835. A consolidation above it, which could be spurred by falling US inflation and steady expectations of rate hikes from the Bank of England due to high inflation, may bring the quote to 1.2985.  

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