economic calendar

Notes from a slow year-end morning

By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank 

The last PCE print for the US was perfect. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) favourite gauge of inflation, printed 0.1% advance on a monthly basis – it was softer than expected, core PCE fell to 3.2% on a yearly basis – it was also softer than expected, and core PCE fell to 1.9% on a 6-month basis, and that's below the Fed's 2% inflation target.  

Normally, you wouldn't necessarily cheer a slowdown in 6-month inflation but because investors are increasingly impatient to see the Fed cut its interest rates, all metrics are good to justify the end of the Fed's policy tightening campaign. So here we are, cheering the fact that the 6-month core PCE fell below the Fed's 2% target in November. The US 2-year yield is preparing to test the 4.30% to the downside, the 10-year yield makes itself comfy below the 4% mark – and even the 3.90% this morning, and the stocks joyfully extend their ral

Economic Calendar by FXMAG.COM - Week 21/02-25/02 - Beginning With Holiday...

Economic Calendar by FXMAG.COM - Week 21/02-25/02 - Beginning With Holiday...

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 18.02.2022 14:11
On Monday USA will Celebrate Presidents' Day so don't expect any announcement. Going North no sensation is expected as well as Canada celebrates Family Day. Altough North America Has A Long Weekend Ahead, Europe get down to business on normal basis. In Germany, German Manufacturing PMI (prev. 59.8) is going to be presented. Crossing the sea, Great Britain will release three important indicators - Composite PMI (54.2), Manufacturing PMI (57.3) And Services PMI (54.1). Amid other less significant events on 21th February, some time after midday Chinese  PBoC Loan Prime Rate (3.70%) is going to be announced. Getting momentum throught the first day of the week we will try to fuel ourselves on Tuesday by news from Germany and the USA as German Ifo Business Climate Index (prev. 95.7) and CB Consumer Confidence (113.8) is going to be released. In the middle of the week, on Wednesday, we will welcome New Zealand Interest Rate Decision (0.75%) and European CPI Y/Y (5.1%). On this day Japanese and Russian people will have a rest as they celebrate Emperor's Birthday (JP) and Defender of the Fatherland Day (RU). Heading to the end of the following week we will visit US, where GDP (QoQ) (6.9%) and New Home Sales (811K) are going to be released. On Friday German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) (-0.7%) will wake us up at 7 a.m. It is going to be followed by US Core Durable Good Orders (MoM) (0.6%) And Pending Home Sales (MoM) (-3.8%)   Source: Investing.com Tiime: GMT
Economic Calendar by FXMAG.COM – 24/02/2022 – They’re Going To Speak A Lot…

Economic Calendar by FXMAG.COM – 24/02/2022 – They’re Going To Speak A Lot…

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 23.02.2022 10:51
So, the week is coming to an end, but markets stay awake all days long. Right after midnight we’re all welcomed to join our friends from Australia in reviewing Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q4) (Prev. -2.2%). Afterwards, at 7.30 a.m. Swiss Employment Level (Q4) will be released. Heading to Oceanic Area, India will release RBI MPC Meeting Minutes, followed by Brazilian Unemployment Rate (Prev. 11.6%) Released half an hour later. Back to Europe, shortly after midday ECB McCaul is going to declare. At 1 a.m. Russia will release their Central Bank Reserves and 15 minutes later BoE Gov Bailey is going to give a speech. At 2.40 p.m. ECB Supervisory Board Member Fernandez-Bollo is going to speak. Isabel Schnabel will take her turn more than hour later. USA – At 1.30 p.m. GDP (QoQ) (Q4) (Prev. 6.9%), GDP Price Index (Prev. 7.0%) and Initial Jobless Claims (Prev. 248K) will be released. In the same time, but in Canada, we will meet the latest Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Prev. 0.7%). In the afternoon we will get to know US New Home Sales (MoM) and Crude Oil Inventories (Prev. 1.121M) and Cushing Crude Oil Inventories. Some would say that 24/02 is the day of speeches what is not exaggerated as FOMC Members speaks from 4 p.m. to 6 p.m. We will get the Thursday ended with New Zealand’s Core Retail Sales (QoQ) (Prev. -6.7%), Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q4) (Prev. -8.1%), Trade Balance (YoY) (Jan) (Prev. -6.780M) followed by Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) (Prev. -0.2%) and CPI Tokyo Ex Food And Energy (MoM) (Feb) (Prev. -0.3%) Source: Investing.com Tiime: GMT
CZK: Koruna's Resilience Amid Global Influences - 16.08.2023

Fed Is About To Release The Decision, Bank Of England's (BoE) Turn Incoming. GBP Is In Focus As Interest Rate Is Decided

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 16.03.2022 14:08
A week of monetary policy releases is coming to an end. The following day (17/03/22) Bank Of England Releases its decision about interest rate. There are also some important data coming from the European Union and the US. What's ahead? Let's take a look at this brief commentary of the upcoming economic events around the world. Events' data: courtesy of Investing.com Australia and European Union We live in times of inflation and employment some would say. Taking that into consideration all of indicators containing 'inflation' or 'employment' arouses our interest. Having said so, don't forget to stay awake at 0:30 a.m. on Thursday as Australia has their Employment change released. If you struggle to stay awake at night, don't miss the morning releases which are ECB President Lagarde testimony at 9:30 a.m. and the publishing of EU CPI (YoY). Corporate Price Index previously amounted to 5.8%. United Kingdom Exactly at 12 o'clock (there's no better time of the day to release important data there) an important announcement takes place in the UK. At this time BoE interest rate goes public. The current one amounts to 0.5% USA Shortly after important news coming from the UK, a series of the US indicators is published. Simultanously released Bulding Permits (1.895M), Initial Jobless Claims (227K) and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing (16.0) are ones to keep an eye on. New Zealand In New Zealand, at 9:45 p.m., the GDP (QoQ) is released. The Gross Domestic Product previously amounted to -3.7% Source: Investing.com Time: GMT  
Hungarian Labour Markey Data And Turkish Monetary Policy Are Going To Arouse Our Interest | Key events in EMEA next week - 19/05/22 | ING Economics

Hungarian Labour Markey Data And Turkish Monetary Policy Are Going To Arouse Our Interest | Key events in EMEA next week - 19/05/22 | ING Economics

ING Economics ING Economics 19.05.2022 23:47
Labour market figures in Hungary and Turkish policy rates are the key releases to look out for next week The Central Bank of Turkey Content Hungary: Double-digit wage growth expected in March Turkey: Policy rate to remain on hold Hungary: Double-digit wage growth expected in March Next week we will see the latest set of labour market data in Hungary. After a significant jump in wages in February due to a six-month bonus payment to the armed forces, we expect a more moderate growth rate in March. However, due to the labour shortage and the minimum wage increase, this moderate rise will still be well into double-digit territory, around 14% year-onyear. We don’t see any significant change in the unemployment rate as the latest surveys show that companies are still complaining about a lack of labour and are ready to hire new workers. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM Turkey: Policy rate to remain on hold Recent Central Bank of Turkey moves that 1) tightened reserve requirements to curb TRY commercial loan growth and 2) aimed to encourage a higher take-up of FX-protected deposits on the retail side and strengthen its FX reserves moves, signal that there is no reason to expect the bank to change its stance and policy rate in the near term. This is despite ongoing challenges to external balances and the inflation outlook. Given this backdrop, we expect that the policy rate will be kept unchanged at 14%. Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform| FXMAG.COM EMEA Economic Calendar Source: Refinitiv, ING, *GMT TagsTurkey Hungary EMEA Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Which stock market sector is currently interesting due to its volatility?

Which stock market sector is currently interesting due to its volatility?

Purple Trading Purple Trading 18.07.2022 07:57
Which stock market sector is currently interesting due to its volatility While long-term investors in physical shares are not too interested in volatility, CFD traders can make potentially very nice profits from it. However, equity markets are vast and it can happen that an interesting title slips through one’s fingers. This article will make sure that it doesn't happen. What is volatility and how is it created If you were to equate the words volatility and nervousness (or moodiness) you would not be far off the mark. Indeed, volatility is really a measure of nervousness in the markets and where there is nervousness, there is also uncertainty. Uncertainty in the markets can arise for many different reasons, but it usually happens before the release of important macroeconomic news (on our economic calendar), you can identify those by the three bulls' heads symbols) or during unexpected events with a major impact on a particular market sector or the geopolitical order of the world (natural disasters, wars).   On the charts of trading platforms, you can recognize a highly volatile market by the dynamically changing price of the instrument, the market is said to be going up or down, and if you switch to a candle chart, you may notice large candles. Conversely, non-volatile, calm markets move sideways without any significant dips or rises. Volatility can also be historical or implied, but we'll write about that another time. Now, let’s talk about how can one potentially profit from volatility and where to find suitable markets to do so.   How to potentially profit from volatility For intraday and swing traders, volatility is the key to their potential success. For traders, often the worst situation is the so-called "sideways" market movement, where the asset in question goes "sideways" without significant movements either up or down. With small and larger price fluctuations, traders can potentially generate interesting profits. One of the most volatile markets is the stock market, where some news can trigger very significant price movements. Events such as important economic reports, a stock split, or an acquisition announcement, for example, can move the price of a given stock. In addition, traders using CFDs for share trading can also use leverage to multiply any gains (and losses) in a given volatility.   The key to potential success is choosing the right stock titles. Some stocks and sectors can be considered more volatile, while others can go longer periods of time without significant fluctuations. So how do you look for volatility? Several indicators measure price movements in stocks, perhaps the most well-known is beta, which measures the volatility of a given stock compared to a benchmark stock index (typically the S&P 500 for US stocks). The beta indicator is listed on most well-known stock sites, but we can calculate it using the following formula: Beta = 1 In this case, the stock is highly correlated with the market and we can expect very similar movements to the benchmark index.   Beta < 1 If the beta is less than 1, we can consider the stock to be potentially less volatile than the stock market.   Beta > 1 Stocks with a beta greater than 1 are theoretically more volatile than the benchmark index. So, for example, if a stock's beta is 1.1, we think of it as 10% more volatile. It is stock titles with a beta above 1 that should be of most interest to investors looking to take advantage of volatility. However, it is not enough to monitor the beta alone, traders should not forget to monitor important news and fundamentals related to the company and the market in general. Thus, it is advisable to choose a few companies whose stocks have been significantly volatile in the past and where we expect strong movements due to positive and negative news to continue. So which sectors may be worth following? In which sectors can you potentially benefit from high volatility? Energy sector The energy companies sector has historically been one of the most volatile, as confirmed by the course of 2022 so far. The price development of energy companies is of course strongly linked to the price of energy commodities. These have had a great year - both natural gas and oil have appreciated by several tens of percent since the beginning of the year. However, this growth has not been without significant fluctuations, often by higher units of percent per day. The current geopolitical situation and growing talk of recession promise to continue the volatility in the sector. In the chart below, you can see the movement of Exxon Mobil Corp shares in recent weeks. Chart 1: Exxon Mobil shares on the MT4 platform on the H1 timeframe along with the 50 and 100-day moving averages Travel industry Shares of companies related to the travel industry have always been very volatile. According to data from the beginning of the year (NYU Stern), even the companies classified as hotels and casinos were the most volatile when measured by beta. Given the coronavirus pandemic, this is not surprising. However, the threat of coronavirus still persists and there is currently the talk of another wave. However, global demand for travel is once again strong. Airlines and hotels are beginning to recover from the previous two dry years. As a result, both positive and negative news promises potential volatility going forward. In the chart below, you can see the movement of Hilton Hotels Corp shares in recent weeks. Chart 2: Hilton Hotels shares on the MT4 platform on the H1 timeframe along with the 50 and 100-day moving averages Technology Technology is a very broad term - some companies in a given sector can be considered "blue chip" stocks, which can generally be less volatile and have the potential to appreciate nicely over time. These include Apple or Microsoft, for example. However, even these will not escape relatively high volatility in 2022. Traders looking for even stronger moves, however, will be more interested in smaller companies such as Uber, Zoom Technologies, Palantir, or PayPal. In the chart below, we can see the evolution of Twitter stock, which has undergone significant volatility in recent weeks. This was linked to the announcement of the acquisition (April gap) and its recent recall by Elon Musk. With both opposing parties facing a court battle, similarly wild news is just more water on the volatility mill. Chart 3: Twitter shares on the MT4 platform on the H1 timeframe along with the 50 and 100-day moving averages There are, of course, more sectors that are significantly volatile. Traders can follow companies in the healthcare sector, for example, where coronavirus vaccine companies are among the most interesting ones. Restaurants or aerospace and chemical companies can also be worth looking at. But few things can move stock markets as significantly as the economic cycle. We'll look at the impact of expansion and recession on stocks in our next article.  
Germany: Industrial Orders Plunged In July. YoY Loss Is Huge!

🚨What To Watch This Week? China Decides On Interest Rate, Eurozone: German PMI (Preliminary) Is Released

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.08.2022 07:52
Relevance up to 11:00 2022-08-24 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   Having beaten off the losses of the last three weeks, the DXY dollar index ends the week in positive territory with a decent gain. According to the minutes of the July meeting released last Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials agreed on the advisability of raising the interest rate by 75 basis points, but decided that it would "depend on incoming information" regarding future hikes. It is also possible that at some stage "it would be appropriate to slow down the rate of hike." Nevertheless, the published minutes confirmed the intention of the Fed leadership to fight inflation resolutely, including by consistently tightening monetary policy. And this is a strong argument in favor of further strengthening of the dollar. It is also worth noting that the growth of US stock indices stopped last week. Market participants again turned to the dollar, preferring it to other popular defensive assets - gold, yen, franc. Next week, financial market participants will pay attention to the release of important macroeconomic statistics for Germany, the eurozone, Great Britain, New Zealand, and the US. Particular attention will be paid to the Fed's annual economic forum in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, starting on Thursday, 25 August. It will be attended by representatives of the world's leading central banks and economists. Their statements can have a significant impact on the dynamics of financial markets. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will make a speech on the first day of the forum. The main attention of market participants will be riveted to his speech in order to more accurately determine for themselves the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy, and hence the dynamics of the dollar and major US stock indices. As always, a number of important macroeconomic data and a number of important news are expected to be published during the new trading week. It is also worth noting that changes may be made to the economic calendar during the coming week. Monday, 22 August China. The decision of the National Bank of China on the interest rate The level of interest rates is the most important factor in assessing the value of a currency. Most other economic indicators are only looked at by investors to predict how rates will move in the future. Since the Chinese economy is, according to various estimates, the first in the world (at the moment), Chinese macro data and decisions of the country's monetary authorities can have a great impact on the financial market and investor sentiment, especially on the markets of the Asia-Pacific region. It is expected that this People's Bank of China meeting will keep the interest rate at the same level of 3.70%, although unexpected decisions are not ruled out. If the PBOC makes unexpected statements or decisions, then volatility could increase throughout the financial market. Investors will also be interested in the bank's assessment of the consequences of the coronavirus for the Chinese economy and its policies in the near future, in this regard. The level of influence on the markets of the final assessment is from low to high. Tuesday, 23 August Germany. Index (PMI) of business activity in the manufacturing sector (preliminary release). Composite Index (PMI) of business activity (preliminary release) This S&P Global report is an analysis of a survey of 800 purchasing managers that asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier shipments and inventory. Since purchasing managers have perhaps the most up-to-date information about the situation in the company, this indicator is an important indicator of the state of the German economy as a whole. This sector of the economy forms a significant part of Germany's GDP. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the EUR, below 50 is considered negative for the euro. Data worse than the forecast and/or the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro. Previous values: 49.3, 52.0, 54.8, 54.6, 56.9, 58.4, 59.8, 57.4, 57.4, 57.8, 58.4, 62.6 The level of influence on the markets is high. The Composite PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall health of the German economy. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the EUR, below 50 is considered negative for the euro. Data worse than the forecast and/or the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro. Previous values: 48.1, 51.3, 53.7, 54.3, 55.1, 55.6, 49.9, 52.2, 52.0, 55.5, 60.0, 62.4 The level of influence on the markets is high. Eurozone. Composite index (PMI) of business activity in the manufacturing sector (preliminary release)The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (from S&P Global) is an important indicator of the state of the entire European economy. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the EUR, below 50 is considered negative for the euro. Data worse than the forecast and/or the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro. Previous values: 49.9, 53.0, 54.8, 55.8, 54.9, 55.5, 52.3, 53.3, 55.4, 54.2, 56.2, 59.0. The level of influence on the markets is high. UK. Service PMI (preliminary release) The PMI in the UK services sector (S&P Global) is an important indicator of the state of the British economy. The service sector employs the majority of the UK's working-age population and generates approximately 75% of GDP. The most important part of the service industry is still financial services. If the data turns out to be worse than the forecast and the previous value, then the pound is likely to fall sharply in the short term. Data better than the forecast and the previous value will have a positive impact on the pound. At the same time, a result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the GBP, below 50 is considered negative for the GBP. Previous values: 52.6, 54.3, 53.4, 58.9, 62.6, 60.5, 54.1, 53.6, 58.5, 59.1, 55.4, 55.0 The level of influence on the markets is high. Wednesday, 24 August USA. Orders for durable goods. Capital goods orders (excluding defense and aviation) Durable goods are defined as solid products with an expected life of more than three years, such as cars, computers, household appliances, aircraft, and involve large investments in their production. This leading indicator measures the change in the total value of new durable goods orders placed with manufacturers. Growing orders for this category of goods signal that manufacturers will ramp up activity as orders are filled. Capital goods are durable goods used to produce durable goods and services. Goods produced in the defense and aviation sectors of the US economy are not included in this indicator. A high result strengthens the USD, a decrease in the indicator has a negative effect on the USD. Durable goods orders previous values: +0.3% (in June), +0.8% in May, +0.5% in April, +1.1% in March, -2.1% in February, +1.6% in January. Previous values of the indicator "orders for capital goods excluding defense and aviation": +0.5% in June, +0.6% in May, +0.4% in April, +1.3% in March, -0, 2% in February, +0.9% in January. The level of influence on the markets is high. US. Pending home sales transactions The US National Association of Realtors will publish a report with data on pending transactions in the housing market. This indicator shows the change in the number of houses prepared for sale, but still waiting for the contract to close. This is one of the most important indicators for the US real estate market, which also characterizes activity in the construction sector of the economy, and the sale of a house causes a wide-ranging associated effect: repairs, mortgages, brokerage and banking services, transportation, etc. A high result has a positive effect on the USD, a low result and a relative decline have a negative effect. Previous indicator values: -8.6%, +0.4%, -4.0%, -1.6%, -4.0%, -5.8% (January 2022). The level of influence on the markets is average. New Zealand. Retail sales The New Zealand Bureau of Statistics will publish the next quarterly report on retail sales in the country. This major leading indicator of consumer spending reflects the total sales of retailers. Consumer spending accounts for most of the overall economic activity of the population, while domestic trade accounts for the largest part of GDP growth. A relative decline in the indicator could have a short-term negative impact on the New Zealand dollar, while an increase in the indicator would have a positive effect on the NZD. Previous values: -0.5% (Q1 2022), +8.3% (Q4 2021), -8.2% (Q3 2021), +3 .3% (in Q2 2021), +2.8% (in Q1 2021). The level of influence on the markets is average. Thursday, 25 August Annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, organized and sponsored by the Fed. At the symposium, representatives of the world's central banks and academic economists discuss issues of the world economy and speak out about the prospects for the monetary policy of central banks. Statements by representatives of central banks may have a significant impact on national currencies, including the US dollar. The degree of this influence will depend on the tone of speeches of representatives of the central banks. US. Annual GDP for the 2nd quarter (second estimate) This indicator is the main indicator of the state of the American economy, and along with data on the labor market and inflation, data on GDP are key for the country's central bank in determining the parameters of its monetary policy. Solid results strengthen the US dollar; weak reports on GDP have a negative impact on the US dollar. There are three versions of the GDP, released at intervals of a month - Preliminary, Updated and Final. The pre-release is the earliest and has the most impact on the market. The final release has less impact, especially if it matches the forecast. Previous values of the indicator (in annual terms): -1.6%, +6.9%, +2.3%, +6.7%, +6.3% (in the 1st quarter of 2021). Forecast (second estimate) for Q2 2022: -0.9% (first estimate was -0.9% and forecast +1.0%). The level of influence on the markets is high. US. Price Index for Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE Price Index). Unemployment claims The Price Index for Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) is one of the main measures of inflation that FOMC officials at the Fed use as an indicator of inflation. The rate of inflation (apart from the state of the labor market and GDP) is important to the Fed in setting the parameters of its monetary policy. Rising prices put pressure on the central bank to tighten its policies and raise interest rates. Higher-than-forecast PCE readings could push the US dollar higher as it hints at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed's forecasts, and vice versa. Previous values: +7.1% (Q1 2022), 6.4% (Q4 2021), +5.3% (Q3), +6.5% (in Q2), +3.8% (in Q1 2021). The preliminary estimate was: +7.1% (in the 2nd quarter of 2022). The level of influence on the markets is medium to high. At the same time, the US Department of Labor will publish a weekly report on the state of the US labor market with data on the number of primary and secondary claims for unemployment benefits. The state of the labor market (together with data on GDP and inflation) is a key indicator for the Fed in determining the parameters of its monetary policy. The result is higher than expected and the growth of the indicator indicates the weakness of the labor market, which has a negative impact on the US dollar. The drop in the indicator and its low value is a sign of a recovery in the labor market and may have a short-term positive impact on the USD. Initial and repeat jobless claims are expected to remain at pre-coronavirus lows, which is also positive for the dollar, indicating the stability of the US labor market. Previous (weekly) figures for initial jobless claims: 262,000, 248,000, 254,000, 261,000, 244,000, 235,000, 231,000, 232,000, 202,000, 211,000 Previous (Weekly) Values for New Jobless Claims Data: 1,428,000, 1,420,000, 1,368,000, 1,384,000, 1,333,000, 1,372,000, 1,324,000, 1,331,000, 1,309,000, 1,309,000 The level of influence on the markets is medium to high. Annual Economics Symposium at Jackson Hole US. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE Core Price Index). Unemployment claims The PCE Annual Core Price Index (excluding volatile food and energy prices) is the primary measure of inflation that Fed FOMC officials use as a primary measure of inflation. The rate of inflation (apart from the state of the labor market and GDP) is important to the Fed in setting the parameters of its monetary policy. Rising prices put pressure on the central bank to tighten its policies and raise interest rates. Higher-than-expected Core Price Index (PCE) readings could push the US dollar higher as it hints at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed's forecasts, and vice versa. Previous values: +4.8% (annualized), +4.7%, +4.9%, +5.2%, +5.3%, +5.2% (in January 2022). The level of influence on the markets is medium to high. USA. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (final release) This index is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. It also reflects the confidence of American consumers in the economic development of the country. A high level indicates growth in the economy, while a low level indicates stagnation. Data worse than previous values and/or forecast may have a negative impact on the dollar in the short term. The growth of the indicator will strengthen the USD. Previous indicator values: 51.5, 50.0, 58.4, 65.2, 59.4, 62.8, 67.2 in January 2022. Forecast for August: 55.1 (preliminary estimate was 55.1). The level of influence on the markets is medium to high.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/319403
FX Street Economic Calendar. Euro (EUR), US Dollar (USD, Pound (GBP), Russian ruble (RUB)...

FX Street Economic Calendar. Euro (EUR), US Dollar (USD, Pound (GBP), Russian ruble (RUB)...

Ed Moya Ed Moya 09.05.2022 07:12
Economic Calendar Saturday, May 7 Economic Data/Events: China forex reserves Sunday, May 8 Economic Data/Events: Former secretary for security and chief secretary John Lee is expected to be named replacement for Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam. Atlanta Fed financial market conference starts Monday, May 9 Economic Data/Events: US Wholesale Inventories President Putin expected to speak BOJ releases Minutes to last policy decision Mexico CPI China Trade, aggregate financing, money supply, new yuan loans France Trade Singapore foreign reserves Indonesia GDP, CPI, consumer confidence Japan cash earnings, PMI services, composite Tuesday, May 10 Economic Data/Events: Fed’s Mester and Bostic speak at Atlanta Fed conference Fed’s Williams speaks NABE/Bundesbank symposium Fed’s Waller and Kashkari speak at the Economic Club of Minnesota Germany ZEW survey expectations Italy industrial production Italy PM Draghi visits White House Japan household spending Mexico international reserves New Zealand home sales, card spending Australia household spending, business confidence, retail sales Thailand consumer confidence EVENTS: Wednesday, May 11 Economic Data/Events: US CPI Fed’s Bostic speaks China CPI, FDI Germany CPI ECB’s Knot speaks in Madrid Australia consumer confidence Japan leading index EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report Thursday, May 12 Economic Data/Events: US PPI, initial jobless claims Fed’s Daly speaks in Alaska President Biden hosts special summit of ASEAN leaders USDA World Agricultural Supply/Demand report UK GDP G-7 and NATO foreign ministers meetings begin in Germany India CPI UK Industrial production Mexico central bank (Banxico) rate decision: Expected to raise Overnight Rate by 50bps to 7.00% Mexico industrial production Russia trade Japan BoP, bank lending, bankruptcies New Zealand food prices, net migration, inflation expectations Australia consumer inflation expectations South Africa manufacturing production Friday, May 13 Economic Data/Events: US University of Michigan consumer sentiment Federal Reserve Bank of New York hosts “Climate Change: Implications for Macroeconomics” symposium France CPI Poland CPI Russia CPI and GDP Norway GDP Eurozone Industrial production Turkey Industrial production Canada existing home sales India trade Japan money stock New Zealand manufacturing index Thailand foreign reserves, forward contracts China medium-term lending RBA Bullock speaks Sovereign Rating Updates: Switzerland (Fitch) Iceland(S&P)   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Hungary: Budget deficit jumps above full-year cash flow target by ca. 10%

HUF And PLN May Be Fluctuating This Week! Hungarian Forint Meets Economic Data And National Bank Of Poland Is Expected To Hike The Rate

ING Economics ING Economics 03.09.2022 23:00
A busy week ahead for Hungary with July's economic activity data and August's inflation reading. Retail sales should improve while inflation is expected to lift further. We're also expecting a 25bp rate hike from the National Bank of Poland In this article Poland: central bank decision on rates Russia: inflation subsiding after a big spike Turkey: annual inflation expected to increase further Hungary: August core inflation reading expected to be 18.6% Kazakhstan: above expected inflation calls for another key rate hike Source: Shutterstock Poland: central bank decision on rates In recent public statements, Polish policymakers pointed out the need to continue monetary tightening albeit at a smaller scale than before. Rate-setters mainly mentioned a 25bp rate hike and some even seemed reluctant to hike at all. An upward surprise from the August flash CPI means that a 25bp rate hike to 6.75% (our baseline scenario) looks like a done deal and the Council may even discuss a 50bp rate hike. Still, the end of the rate-hiking cycle is nearing and we currently see the terminal National Bank of Poland rate at 7.0-7.5%. Russia: inflation subsiding after a big spike Following a sharp spike to 17.8% year-on-year in April, Russia has been on a disinflationary path due to weaker demand, ruble appreciation and a good harvest. Next Friday’s CPI numbers for August are likely to show a 0.6% month-on-month decline in prices and a deceleration in the annual rate to 14.2% YoY. This challenges our year-end expectations of 13% and suggests that the actual print is likely to be at the lower end of the Bank of Russia’s 12-15% range. This means that the key rate, which has already been cut from 20.0% in February-March to 8.0% in July, has room to go lower. Yet given the stabilisation of households’ inflationary expectations and unclear supply-side prospects, we expect CPI to remain elevated next year and doubt that this downside to the key rate could exceed 100 basis points by year-end. The next Central Bank of Russia meeting is scheduled for 16 September. Turkey: annual inflation expected to increase further We expect annual inflation to have risen further in August to 81.6% (2.2% on monthly basis) from 79.6% a month ago, despite a decline in gasoline prices, as pricing pressures will likely remain broad-based with a largely supportive policy framework leading to currency weakness and external factors weighing on import prices. Hungary: August core inflation reading expected to be 18.6% We are facing a really busy calendar in Hungary next week. The first set of data will be July economic activity. Retail sales could improve a bit as pensioners got extra transfers from the government which is practically a retroactively increased pension due to higher-than-expected inflation. This could boost food consumption, while non-food retail got a boost from the new (less favourable) utility bill support scheme, which urged households to replace old household appliances with newer, more energy-efficient ones. Based on PMI data, July industrial production could still be OK, though we see some downside risk here due to planned summer shutdowns. While industry is doing well despite the plethora of challenges, the trade balance is rather driven by the ever-rising energy bill of the country, and so we see further deterioration in the trade deficit in July. The highlight of the week is going to be the August inflation reading. Due to a refined fuel price cap, which narrowed the range of beneficiaries, the Statistical Office will recalculate the fuel price higher in the consumer basket (some weighted average of capped and market prices). This might explain 0.9-1.0ppt from the 2.3% month-on-month inflation, which will lift the yearly reading up to 16.2%. As rising energy and agricultural commodity prices spill over into processed food and service providers adjusting their prices to the rising utility bills, we see core inflation at 18.6% year-on-year. However, there is one beneficiary of this sky-high inflation environment: the government budget, where we expect yet another surplus on rising revenues in August. Kazakhstan: above expected inflation calls for another key rate hike National Bank of Kazakhstan is likely to make another key rate hike on Monday from the current level of 14.50% to 15.00% or higher. Following the latest 50bp hike at the end of July, inflation continued to outperform the market and NBK expectations, reaching 16.1% YoY in August. Higher inflationary pressure appears to be broad-based in terms of structure and most likely calls for an adjustment in the key rate level. Key events in EMEA next week Source: Refinitiv, ING TagsEmerging Markets EMEA Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The UK Markets Remain Volatile, Possible Contraction Of The Eurozone Economy

British Pound (GBP) And UK Economy: Next Week Is Full Of Vital Releases - Inflation, GDP And Labour Market Data

ING Economics ING Economics 09.09.2022 15:38
Next week's US inflation numbers will need to be quite surprising for the Fed to deviate from a 75bp hike at its September meeting. The Bank of England's scheduled meeting has been postponed, and instead the focus will be on several pieces of key UK data In this article US: Core inflation likely to rise to 6.1% UK: Bank of England to stick to 50bp rate hike despite energy package Source: Shutterstock Article updated on 9 September to reflect the postponement of the Bank of England's scheduled meeting US: Core inflation likely to rise to 6.1% We have the last full week of economic data ahead of the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, but it will take some surprising numbers to make the Fed deviate from a third consecutive 75bp rate hike. After all, the economy is posting decent growth, creating jobs in significant numbers, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell is arguing that “we need to act now, forthrightly, strongly as we have been doing and we have to keep at it until the job is done”. The data includes CPI, which should show headline inflation being depressed by lower gasoline prices, but core inflation is likely to rise to 6.1% from 5.9%. Retail sales should post flat growth, but remember this is a nominal figure and those falling gasoline prices will be a major drag. Real consumption is likely to be up in the third quarter. We also expect manufacturing output to grow further. The deteriorating global outlook and weakening domestic housing market combined with the cumulative impact of policy tightening and the strong dollar means we think the Fed will moderate its hiking to 50bp in November and 25bp in December. Weaker wage pressure and more limited month-on-month increases in CPI thanks to lower import and other input costs would certainly help this argument. UK: Bank of England to stick to 50bp rate hike despite energy package The United Kingdom will observe a period of mourning following Queen Elizabeth II’s death on Thursday, and Parliament will be adjourned during this time. The Bank of England's scheduled meeting has also now been postponed to the following week, but the ONS has confirmed that several pieces of important data will still be released. Here's what we expect: July GDP (Monday): Expect a large bounce-back from June, where the addition of an extra bank holiday artificially distorted the monthly GDP numbers. Depending on the arrangements during the period of mourning, the addition of an extra bank holiday in September is possible, and this would factor into the GDP numbers for the current month. We’ll therefore have to wait until the fourth quarter to get a clearer idea of how the economy is faring in GDP terms, and we suspect there’s still a risk of a negative growth figure. However, the announcement of an energy price guarantee by the government considerably reduces the risk of a deep downturn, and potentially also a technical recession. Jobs (Tuesday): Hiring demand is falling, though recent data and surveys have suggested that the worker shortages plaguing the jobs market have only improved slightly over recent months. The announcement of an energy price cap for businesses should help limit what otherwise could have been a more immediate rise in redundancies as firms’ costs increased. We expect the unemployment rate to remain stable next week, but we’ll also be watching closely for signs of a more pronounced return of inactive workers to the jobs market. Inflation (Wednesday): A 6% fall in petrol/diesel prices through August will drag headline inflation slightly lower. That doesn’t mean we’re past the peak, though the introduction of the energy price cap means inflation is less likely to materially surpass 11% in the autumn. Without the cap, we’d forecast inflation would go to 16% or above in January. This is a double-edged sword for the BoE. On one hand, the reduced the peak in headline inflation should ease concerns about consumer inflation expectations becoming even less anchored. That points to another 50bp rate hike when the BoE meets later in September, despite the Fed and ECB going more aggressively. The BoE has shown in past meetings that it isn’t pressured to follow those other central banks, albeit the hawks will be worried about the recent slide in sterling. They will also argue that the government’s action increases the risk of inflation staying elevated in the medium-term, given the reduced risk of recession, Some members are therefore likely to vote for a 75bp hike at the next meeting. But ultimately with a lot already priced into markets for the BoE, policymakers will be wary about adding fuel to the fire. As we saw with the ECB on Thursday, the decision to go with a 75bp hike saw markets price that as the default move at the next meeting. Key events in developed markets next week Source: Refinitiv, ING This article is part of Our view on next week’s key events View 3 articles   TagsUS Bank of England   Read this article on ING Economics   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more    
The German Purchasing Managers' Index, ZEW Economic Sentiment  And More Ahead

The Economic Outlook In Euroland And Germany Is Getting Worse

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 18.10.2022 10:21
Today the market will be calmer as I do not have very important data that could be confusing. Mainly, the eyes of traders will be focused on the results of the ZEW Economic Sentiment in Germany and in Euroland as well as the statements of bank criminals in these regions. From the American economy, we are only waiting for the report on Industrial Production. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) events As the day started, events from Australia arrived. The first event took place at 2:05 CET, and it was a speech. The speaker was Michele Bullock, who is an Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Her public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy. The RBA minutes provide a detailed record of the discussions held between the RBA’s board members on monetary policy and economic conditions that influenced their decision on adjusting interest rates and/or bond buys, significantly impacting the Australian Dollar (AUD). ZEW Economic Sentiment German ZEW Economic Sentiment According to the report on the six-month economic outlook, the mood is currently pessimistic. Another decline is projected from -61.9 to -65.7. Since March, the indicator has been below 0, which means negative results. In June it looked like the situation could improve, but the next results quickly showed that it was a temporary change and that the downward trend has been consistently maintained since then. Source: investing.com Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment In the euro zone, the outlook is also negative. It is expected to drop from -60.7 to -61.2. Contrary to Germany, the situation in the euro zone deteriorated only in May. The downward trend has continued since then. The higher results than the German index are due to the fact that 19 Member States have an influence on the European one. Source: investing.com Speeches Also today, representatives of the central banks of Europe and Germany will take the floor. The speeches will be held in the evening. The first one at 18:00 CET and the speaker will be a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, Isabel Schnabel. One hour later at 19:00 CET, Joachim Nagel, who is Deutsche Bundesbank President and voting member of the ECB Governing Council, will speak. Canada Housing Starts The annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month will published today. It is expected to drop to 263K from 267.4K. At the beginning of the year, the trend was exemplary, with the highest level recorded in May (287.3K). After this reading, the trend changed to a downward trend. The positive fact is that since the April reading the result was higher than expected. Source: investing.com Canada Foreign Securities Purchases The overall value of domestic stocks, bonds, and money-market assets purchased by foreign investors in Canada is expected to increase compared to the previous month. Canada Foreign Securities Purchases is expected to reach 17.32B. Purchase by foreign investors will provide new money to the Canadian economy and will also demonstrate its attractiveness. During the year, the appearance of the indicator varied considerably. At the beginning of the year it was in a downward trend, then the readings for January and February were downward. After these negative results, the highest reading was recorded at 46.94B. This very positive result was followed by a shift to a downward trend. A rebound after a negative reading in June could mean an improvement. US Industrial Production There are no forecasts for the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. Observing the last result, the trend is downward, and the last reading was 0.13% lower than the previous reading (3.81%). We can only expect it to decline slightly. Summary 2:05 CET RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks 2:30 CET RBA Meeting Minutes 11:00 CET German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct) 11:00 CET ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct) 14:15 CET Housing Starts (Sep) 14:30 CET Foreign Securities Purchases (Aug) 15:15 CET US Industrial Production 18:00 CET ECB's Schnabel Speaks 19:00 CET German Buba President Nagel Speaks Source: https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
UK Monetary Policy Outlook: A September Hike Likely, but November Uncertain

EUR/USD Analysis: Tips for Trading and Transaction Insights

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.06.2023 11:00
Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD The price test of 1.0719, coinciding with the significant rise of the MACD line from zero, limited the upward potential of the pair. Even so, market players continue to buy in anticipation of further interest rate hikes despite inflation in the eurozone starting to slow down. Clearly, market players do not expect any changes in the European Central Bank's monetary policy.     The empty economic calendar today will push traders to focus on upcoming US labor market data, as growth in unemployment and disappointing non-farm payrolls will convince the Fed to continue its tight approach to monetary policy. Only a pause in the rate hike cycle will weaken dollar demand and lead to a further rise in EUR/USD.     For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0780 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0816. Growth could occur. However, when buying, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0754, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0780 and 1.0816.   For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0754 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0722. Pressure may return amid very good labor market statistics in the US. However, when selling, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0780, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0754 and 1.0722.       What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market   Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.  
Challenges Loom Over Eurozone's Economic Outlook: Inflation, Interest Rates, and Uncertainty Ahead

Trading GBP/USD: Analysis, Tips, and Price Levels

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.06.2023 11:02
Analysis of transactions and tips for trading GBP/USD he price test of 1.2480, coinciding with the significant rise of the MACD line from zero, limited the upward potential of the pair. Even so, market players continued to buy, ignoring weak manufacturing activity data in the UK.     The empty economic calendar today will convince traders to push GBP/USD higher, which could continue in the afternoon if the upcoming US labor market data show growth in the unemployment rate and a weaker increase in non-farm payrolls. Such a scenario will convince the Fed to continue its tight approach to monetary policy. Lately, the central bank expressed plans to pause its rate hike cycle. If this happens, dollar demand will decline, which will lead to a rise in the pair.   For long positions: Buy when pound hits 1.2544 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2592 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth could occur. However, when buying, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Pound can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.2517, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2544 and 1.2592.   For short positions: Sell when pound reaches 1.2517 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2477. Pressure could continue amid very strong labor market data from the US. However, when selling, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Pound can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.2544, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2517 and 1.2477.       What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy GBP/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell GBP/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market   Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.  
Nasdaq 100 Faces Bearish Breakdown Below Ascending Wedge and RSI Momentum Indicator

GBP/USD: Mixed Signals and Uncertainty Amid Volatile Trading

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 06.06.2023 08:22
The GBP/USD pair traded lower for most of Monday, clearly indicating a desire to resume its downtrend. However, the ISM non-manufacturing business activity index in the US spoiled the bearish sentiment. It's worth noting that the volatility today reached 84 pips, nearly double that of the euro.     Therefore, trading the pound was possible today, and we will discuss the signals in more detail below. For now, it should be noted that the downward trend has been broken as the pair recently surpassed two descending trendlines. From a technical perspective, a short-term rise is possible, but from the same technical standpoint, a decline should be expected in the medium term. The current situation is not entirely clear, and the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop this week is unlikely to assist traders.       There were some trading signals on the 5-minute chart, although they weren't great. The first sell signal was formed overnight, but by the opening of the European session, the pair was at the point of formation. Therefore, a sell trade could confidently be opened.   Later, the price dropped to the level of 1.2386 and bounced off it. It was appropriate to close the shorts (with a profit of about 25 pips) and open long positions. The buy signal turned out to be false, as did the subsequent sell signal. These two signals "ate up" all the profit from the first trade and also forced us to remove the level of 1.2386 and replace it with 1.2372. It was not advisable to trade the last signal around 1.2372 as the first two proved to be false.   Trading tips on Tuesday: As seen on the 30M chart, the GBP/USD pair has ended its downtrend and started a new uptrend in the short-term. We believe that the pound has not fallen enough to form a new strong uptrend, but the market may have a different opinion. There are a couple of important data scheduled for release this week, so we recommend analyzing higher charts to understand the potential direction of the price.   The key levels on the 5M chart are .2171-1.2179, 1.2245, 1.2307, 1.2372, 1.2445, 1.2507-1.2520, 1.2597-1.2616, 1.2659, 1.2697. When the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, a stop loss can be set at breakeven. The UK will release its Construction PMI on Tuesday, which could potentially provoke a market reaction. However, the chances of that are still low. The economic calendar is empty in the US.   Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines. Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.    
Market Outlook: Oil Price Trends and Gold Amid Global Economic Uncertainties - 21.08.2023

Tips and Analysis for Trading GBP/USD: Identifying Entry Points and Managing Risks

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 20.06.2023 09:49
Analysis of transactions and tips for trading GBP/USD The price test of 1.2795 on Monday afternoon, coinciding with the significant drop of the MACD line from zero, limited the downward potential of the pair. The empty economic calendar today may fuel pressure on pound, leading to a more significant downward correction. For long positions: Buy when pound hits 1.2795 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2840 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth could occur after a breakdown of 1.2795. However, when buying, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it.   Pound can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.2768, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2795 and 1.2840. For short positions: Sell when pound reaches 1.2768 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2728. Pressure may return in the event of inactivity at the highs. However, when selling, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Pound can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.2795, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2768 and 1.2728. What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy GBP/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell GBP/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/346532
US Inflation Report Sets the Tone for Upcoming FOMC Meeting

UK Inflation Rate at 8.7% Sparks Expectations of Bank of England Interest Rate Hike: Economic Calendar Highlights and Trading Analysis

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.06.2023 13:51
Details of the economic calendar on June 21 UK inflation rate for May amounted to 8.7%, remaining at the level of the previous month. Analytical agencies had predicted a slowdown in price growth to 8.4%. Given this data, there is confidence that the Bank of England will increase its key interest rate. The speeches of representatives of the Federal Reserve System and the European Central Bank have become the main leverage for speculators. The speech by ECB board member Isabel Schnabel at the conference   "New challenges for the Economic and Monetary Union in the post-crisis environment" caused a wave of speculation on the euro. Schnabel clearly indicated that a high level of inflation may persist for a prolonged period. This will lead to subsequent increases in the key interest rate. Almost at the same time as the ECB representative, the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, spoke in Congress, but he did not say anything new, only reiterating that most members of the Federal Reserve are inclined to raise the rate by the end of the year, which was already known. Analysis of trading charts from June 21 The EUR/USD currency pair completed a correction phase with a new upward cycle.   During this phase, not only was the local high of the previous week surpassed, but the exchange rate also reached the psychological level of 1.1000. The GBP/USD pair slowed down its correction formation around the 1.2700 level. This led to a partial recovery of long positions, but there are no radical changes on the trading chart. Economic calendar for June 22 Today, market participants will pay special attention to the outcomes of the Bank of England meeting. Investors expect the possibility of a significant interest rate hike after a new inflation shock. Markets are pricing in a 45% probability of a rate increase to 5% at the June meeting and a 55% probability of a more conventional increase of 25 basis points. Special attention will be given to the regulator's comments regarding their view on future inflation and interest rates.     Time targeting: Bank of England meeting outcome – 11:00 UTC Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting – 11:00 UTC Bank of England inflation letter – 12:00 UTC EUR/USD trading plan for June 22 A sharp price change and approaching the key level could have led to the euro being overbought. However, speculators may ignore technical signals if the price continues to hold above the 1.1000 level. In the event of a price rebound from the psychological level, traders will consider a downward scenario.  
RBA Governor Announces Major Changes at RBA Board as US Inflation Expected to Decline

Market Stagnation Persists Ahead of Durable Goods Data and Inflation Concerns

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.06.2023 11:08
It's not surprising that the market is simply stagnant. Not only is the economic calendar completely empty, but traders are also focused on a few other things, quite detached from the global economy. However, this cannot go on forever.   Especially since macro data will be published today. And we're not talking about some insignificant data, but about durable goods orders in the United States, which are expected to fall by 0.9%. This means that consumer activity is somewhat declining. Following that, inflation will continue to slow down. So this could prove to be disadvantageous for the dollar today, and the greenback may depreciate.     The GBP/USD pair has once again rebounded from the support level of 1.2700. However, there have been no significant changes on the trading chart, and the quote is still around the low end of the corrective cycle. On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is hovering along the 50 midline, indicating a flat.   On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are headed downwards. This is a residual signal from the corrective move. Outlook: The sideways movement between 1.2700 and 1.2750 can serve as a consolidation phase, during which sharp price changes are possible. The most optimal tactic would be a breakout strategy based on the range.   In terms of the complex indicator analysis, we see that in the short-term and intraday period, technical indicators are giving mixed signals due to the flat phase. In the medium-term, the indicators are pointing to an upward cycle.  
Turbulent Times Ahead: Poland's Central Bank Signals Easing Measures

Economic Calendar and Bitcoin Consolidation: Assessing Trading Lull and Bullish Signals

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 04.07.2023 08:42
We may be seeing a bit of a trading lull at the start of the week with tomorrow’s US bank holiday tempting many into an extended weekend. The economic calendar looks busy but with a large portion being PMI revisions, that doesn’t necessarily equate to an abundance of trading activity. The revisions are often small and don’t really move the needle in terms of expectations for the economy and, at this moment, interest rates. And then there’s the fact that manufacturing being deep in contraction territory is nothing new and what revisions we did see doesn’t really change that. Even as far as prices are concerned, central banks at this stage are far more concerned with what’s happening in services than manufacturing so even that providing welcome disinflationary pressure won’t be enough.   Is the bitcoin consolidation a bullish signal? Bitcoin is continuing to fluctuate largely between $30,000-$31,000 in a manner that may feel encouraging to the crypto community after such a powerful rally a couple of weeks ago. While it hasn’t managed to capitalize any further, that it hasn’t given back a portion of those gains gives the impression that traders think there’s more to come and that this is merely a period of consolidation amid a bigger move. Time will tell whether that turns out to be the case and news flow may have a big part to play in the outcome but what we’ve seen so far is encouraging.  
US Inflation Reports: Key Catalysts for Dollar Pairs and Market Volatility

US Inflation Reports: Key Catalysts for Dollar Pairs and Market Volatility

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 10.07.2023 11:48
Traders will focus on the upcoming US inflation report. The US will publish key inflation reports that will trigger high volatility among dollar pairs, including the EUR/USD pair. At the end of last week, buyers actively traded as they approached the boundaries of the 10th figure. Traders interpreted June's Non-farms against the US currency, although the report itself was rather contradictory (for example, the wage component came out in the "green").   Inflation reports can restore confidence to the dollar bulls if they reflect an acceleration of the main indicators. But they can also plunge the greenback, enhancing doubts about the interest rate hike within the "post-July" period (the fact of the rate hike at the July meeting is beyond doubt, judging by market expectations). Therefore, traders will focus on the three US inflation reports that will be published during the upcoming week. All other macroeconomic reports will be of secondary importance, although they should not be ignored either.   Consumer Price Index The most important release of the week is the report on the growth of the consumer price index in the US for June (Wednesday, July 12). According to most experts, the indicator will reflect a slowdown in inflation growth. Thus, the general consumer price index in June should decrease quite sharply - to 3.1% y/y (from the previous value of 4.0%). The core index, excluding food and energy prices, should also demonstrate a downward dynamic, slowing down from the May value of 5.3% to 5.0% y/y. Take note that even if the CPI surprises market participants with unexpected growth, this fact is unlikely to fundamentally change the situation in the context of the July FED meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a rate hike this month is 93%.   That is, traders are practically confident in the hawkish outcome of the July meeting - the "green tint" of the inflation report will maintain (confirm) this confidence, but no more. However, if the consumer price index ends up in the "red", the dollar will be under quite strong pressure.   The fact is that the probability of another rate hike in September is now only 24% (again, according to the CME FedWatch Tool). If inflation indicators decrease at a more active pace, the probability of another increase (after July) by the end of the current year will weaken, and this fact will put pressure on the greenback. Producer Price Index, Import Price Index... and more Interestingly, the other inflation reports to be published in the coming week are also expected to reflect a slowdown in US inflation. For example, on Thursday, July 13, we will learn the value of the producer price index.   Experts believe that the overall PPI in monthly terms will come out at 0.2%, and in annual terms - at 0.4%. In annual terms, the indicator has been consistently decreasing for 11 months in a row, and June will accordingly be the 12th month. If it comes out at the forecast level, it will be the weakest result since August 2020. The core producer price index should show a similar dynamic. In annual terms, it should decrease to 2.7% (from the previous value of 2.8%). In this case, it will be the fifteenth consecutive decrease in the indicator. For comparison, it should be noted that in March of last year the base PPI was at 9.6%. On Friday, July 14, we will learn the dynamics of the import price index.   This indicator can be an early signal of changes in inflation trends, or their confirmation. In this case - more likely a confirmation. According to general forecasts, in monthly terms, the indicator will remain in the negative area, standing at -0.1%. In annual terms, the index has been below zero for three months in a row, and in June it should also remain in the negative area (-6.9%). Certainly, aside from US inflation reports, the economic calendar for the upcoming week is packed with other events: for instance, many Fed representatives (Barr, Bostic, Daly, Mester) will speak on Monday, the ZEW indices will be published on Tuesday, and a speech by Fed Reserve representative Neel Kashkari and ECB governing council member Philip Lane is expected on Wednesday. Also, we have the release of the ECB's June meeting minutes and the initial jobless claims data in the US.   On Friday, the release of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index and a speech by Fed Reserve governing board member Christopher Waller is expected. But all these events will serve as a kind of information backdrop. The main focus will be on US inflation. Conclusions The aforementioned inflation reports have the potential to greatly influence the dollar, especially if they end up in the "red", i.e., if the pace of inflation decline in the US accelerates. Amid contradictory Nonfarm, this would mean that the Federal Reserve may limit itself to just one additional rate hike, which will obviously occur at the July meeting.   The July rate hike has already been factored into the market, so any doubts about further tightening of monetary policy will be detrimental to the greenback. In this case, buyers will be the beneficiaries of the current situation: their path will be open not only to the boundaries of the 10th figure, but also to the 1.1080 mark (upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart).  
Economic Calendar Details and Trading Analysis - August 7 & 8

Economic Calendar Details and Trading Analysis - August 7 & 8

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.08.2023 12:21
Details of the economic calendar on August 7 Monday was traditionally accompanied by an empty macroeconomic calendar. Important statistical data in the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States were not published.   Analysis of trading charts from August 7 The EUR/USD exchange rate dropped below the 1.1000 level again, indicating a prevailing bearish sentiment in the market. It should be noted that the current movement is characterized as a correction from the medium-term trend peak. Regarding the GBP/USD, the slowing growth rate may also indicate a prevailing bearish sentiment among market participants. It's important to highlight that, according to tactical analysis, there's a three-week corrective move from the local peak of the medium-term trend, during which a slight pullback has occurred. Essentially, the euro and the British pound continue to decline relative to the U.S. dollar, and the current movement can be seen as a temporary deviation from the main trend.   Economic calendar for August 8 The speeches by several representatives of the U.S. Federal Reserve System are of particular interest today, as it is expected that no significant economic indicators will be published. EUR/USD trading plan for August 8 If the euro against the U.S. dollar consistently stays below the 1.1000 level, it may lead to an increase in short positions and a further drop to 1.0900. However, if the price holds above the 1.1050 level, traders will consider a bullish scenario. In that case, a subsequent recovery phase of the euro rate is possible, which may conclude the current market correction.   GBP/USD trading plan for August 8 If the quote remains stable below the 1.2700 level, the bearish scenario becomes relevant within the correction framework. This will lead to an increase in short positions and possibly an update of the correction's low. At the same time, a bullish scenario implies a gradual recovery in the value of the British pound relative to the ongoing correction. A primary technical signal for a bullish scenario might emerge if the price holds above the 1.2800 level during the day.     What's on the charts The candlestick chart type is white and black graphic rectangles with lines above and below. With a detailed analysis of each individual candle, you can see its characteristics relative to a particular time frame: opening price, closing price, intraday high and low. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a price may stop or reverse its trajectory. In the market, these levels are called support and resistance. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price reversed in history. This color highlighting indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the asset's price in the future. The up/down arrows are landmarks of the possible price direction in the future.  
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Weekly Economic Outlook: Jackson Hole Symposium, PMI Data, and Global Economic Trends

Ed Moya Ed Moya 21.08.2023 12:25
US The main event for next week will be the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium.  Fed Chair Powell’s speech will reiterate that more rate hikes might be needed and that rates should stay higher for longer.  With the recent surge with real yields, Fed Chair Powell can acknowledge that policy is restrictive and that future rate cuts could eventually be warranted as long as inflation has been defeated. The economic data starts on Tuesday with the July existing homes sales report, which should show signs of stabilizing.  Wednesday contains the flash PMIs, which could show manufacturing remains in contraction territory and softness with the service sector continues.  On Thursday, we will get both initial jobless claims and the preliminary look at durable goods, which is expected to show weakness in July. Friday contains the release of the final reading of the University of Michigan sentiment report, with most traders wanting to know if inflation expectations had any major revisions. Earnings for the week include results from Baidu, Lowe’s, Nvidia, and Snowflake,   Eurozone As the ECB is poised to continue delivering more rate hikes to combat inflation, the risks of a hard landing are growing.  There’s no shortage of economic releases next week but the one that stands out is the flash PMI readings. The manufacturing sector is clearly going to remain in contraction territory for all the key regions(Germany, France, eurozone), while the service sector steadily weakens, fighting to stay in expansion territory.  Traders will also pay attention to both the German IFO business climate report as that could show expectations might be stabilizing and what should be another soft consumer confidence report. Thin trading conditions in Europe could occur on Tuesday as some banks (France, Italy) are closed for Assumption Day.   UK Next week is mostly about the UK flash PMI survey, as the composite PMI collapse in July is expected to be followed by further weakness in August. The manufacturing PMI is expected to weaken further from 45.3 to 45.0, the service reading to drop from 51.5 to 50.8, while the composite drops from 50.8 to 50.3.   The UK economy is still expected to barely show growth in Q3, but the momentum is fading as the BOE’s rate hiking cycle starts to weigh on the economy.   Russia Following the plunge in the ruble and an emergency rate hike, the focus on Russia will shift back to the war in Ukraine and the BRICS summit.  Russia was having a growing influence in Africa, but that might get tested as President Putin will be absent given his indictment by the ICC. The economic calendar is light with two releases, industrial production data on Wednesday and money supply on Friday.   South Africa The one notable release will be the July inflation report.  Inflation is expected to stay in the SARB’s target range between 3-6%.  The annual headline reading is expected to drop from 5.4% to 4.9%, while the monthly reading rises from 0.2% to 1.0%.  The monthly core reading is also expected to see a rise from 0.4% to 0.6%.   Turkey With inflation out of control, the CBRT is expected to deliver its 3rd straight rise, bringing the 1-week report rate to 19.50%.  The consensus range is to see the rate rise from 17.5% to anywhere between 18.50% and 20.5%. The 19.0% level was a key level in the past as that triggered the sacking of Governor Agbal.   Switzerland Another quiet week with Money supply data released on Monday and export data on Tuesday.   China One sole key economic data to watch will be on Monday, the monetary policy decision on its one-year and five-year loan prime rates that commercial banks used as a benchmark to price corporate, household loans and housing mortgages respectively. After a surprise cut of 15 basis points (bps) on the one-year medium-term lending facility rate to 2.50% last Monday, its lowest level since late 2009 to defuse the potential contagion risk in China’s financial system triggered by a major trust fund that failed to make timely payments to holders of its wealth management products which are backed by unsold properties of indebted property developers; forecasts are now calling for a similar 15 bps cut on the one and five-year loan prime rates to bring it down to 3.4% and 4.05% respectively. Market participants will also be on the lookout for more detailed fiscal stimulus from China’s top policymakers after recent “morale-boosting piecemeal rhetoric measures” that have failed to break the negative feedback loop in the China stock market; the benchmark CSI 300 index has given up all its ex-post Politburo gains from 25 July after the top leadership group promised to implement “counter-cyclical” measures to defuse the deflationary risk spiral in China. For earnings report releases, a couple of major companies to take note of; Sunny Optical Technology (Tuesday), Country Garden Services (Tuesday), China Life Insurance (Thursday), NetEase (Thursday), Meituan (Friday).   India A quiet calendar with only foreign exchange reserves and fortnightly bank loan growth data out on Friday.   Australia Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs for August will be out on Wednesday.   New Zealand Balance of Trade for July out on Monday is forecasted to shrink to a deficit of -NZ$0.4 billion from a surplus of NZ$9 million posted in June. If it turns out as expected, it will be its first trade deficit since March 2023 due to a weak external demand environment. Q2 retail sales will be out on Wednesday where its prior Q1 negative growth of -4.1% y/y is forecasted to narrow to -0.9% y/y.   Japan Two key data releases to monitor. Firstly, flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs for August out on Wednesday; manufacturing activities are forecasted to improve slightly to 49.9 from 49.6 printed in July while growth in the services sector is expected to come in almost unchanged at 53.6 versus 53.9 in July  Next up, the significant leading Tokyo area consumer inflation data for August out on Friday; both Tokyo core inflation (excluding fresh food) as well as its core-core inflation (excluding fresh food & energy) are forecasted to be unchanged at 3% y/y and 2.5% y/y respectively. Both inflation measures have remained elevated especially the core-core rate which has soared to a 31-year high. Market participants will be keeping a close watch on the USD/JPY as it rallied past a key resistance zone of 145.50/146.10 despite rising concerns on possible BoJ’s FX intervention to negate the current bout of JPY weakness.   Singapore Two key data to focus on. July’s consumer inflation out on Wednesday where the core inflation rate is expected to be almost unchanged at 4.1% y/y versus 4.2% y/y in June. On Friday, industrial production for July is forecasted to show an improvement; -2.5% y/y from -4/9% y/y printed in June. Despite this forecasted improvement, it is still ten consecutive months of negative growth which increases the risk of a recession for Singapore in Q3 due to a weak external demand environment.      
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Economic Calendar Highlights for August 21 and Trading Plans for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on August 22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.08.2023 15:00
Details of the Economic Calendar on August 21 Monday, as usual, was accompanied by an empty macroeconomic calendar. No significant statistical data were published in the European Union, United Kingdom, or United States.   EUR/USD trading plan for August 22 Stable maintenance of the price above the level of 1.0900 may have a positive effect on the euro rate. However, until we see a breach of the 1.0950 level, we cannot assert with absolute confidence that sellers have eased their pressure and that the correction movement will no longer resume in the market.     GBP/USD trading plan for August 22 In this situation, traders prefer a breakout strategy, as this approach can clearly indicate the subsequent direction of market prices. A decline will become relevant if the price consistently stays below the 1.2650 level. This condition could contribute to the continuation of a downward corrective movement. A rise assumes a gradual recovery of the pound sterling's value relative to the current corrective movement. A primary technical signal of potential growth may appear if the price holds above the 1.2800 mark.   What's on the charts The candlestick chart type is white and black graphic rectangles with lines above and below. With a detailed analysis of each individual candle, you can see its characteristics relative to a particular time frame: opening price, closing price, intraday high and low. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a price may stop or reverse its trajectory. In the market, these levels are called support and resistance. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price reversed in history. This color highlighting indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the asset's price in the future. The up/down arrows are landmarks of the possible price direction in the future.
FX Markets React to Rising US Rates: Implications and Outlook

Rates Spark: Different Focus, Different Outcomes

ING Economics ING Economics 31.08.2023 10:29
Rates Spark: Different focus, different outcomes US data disappointments are still putting downward pressure on yields, and a busy calendar suggests more volatility ahead. EUR rates may detach from US dynamics as inflation data and European Central Bank minutes sharpen the focus on the upcoming ECB meeting.   The resilience narrative has driven US rates on the way up, and now down US Treasury yields remain under downward pressure as 10Y yields are trying to get a foothold at around 4.1% – early last week they had hit a high at 4.35%. Bund yields, on the other hand, have managed to bounce off the 2.5% level and as a result, the 10Y UST/Bund spread has tightened to 157bp. The narrative that has driven the wedge between the US and EUR rates is now narrowing it. That is also illustrated when looking at the market moves in real rates. They had been the driver of US rates going up and are now mostly the driver on the way down. 10Y real OIS rates have dropped some 17bp from the recent peak, although inflation swaps also slipped 8bp.       Real rates were the driver the UST/Bund gap, and also the latest retightening   Inflation remains the main preoccupation of EUR rates In Europe, the concerns have been more centred around inflation. Longer real rates never picked up and stuck to a tight range, reflecting the outlook for a longer period of stagnation that was also confirmed by the latest PMIs. Instead we had a slow grind higher in longer-term inflation expectations, picking up pace again with the second quarter. While the often cited 5y5y forward inflation has come off its recent highs, the market remains sensitive to the inflation topic, with the ECB now calibrating the final stage of its tightening cycle. The somewhat slower-than-anticipated decline in German inflation yesterday was important in keeping Bund yields off the 2.5% mark. It provided the ECB’s hawks with arguments for further tightening. Never mind that it could be the last burst of German inflation for a while, as our economist thinks – with the ECB’s current mindset being more focused on actual data than forecasts, that may well be all the more reason for the hawks to push for a hike in September and not wait any longer. It may be the last opportunity. Market pricing now sees the chances for a hike next month a tad above 50%, and 90% that we will see a hike by the end of the year.    Dynamics of inflation expectations played a larger role for EUR rates   Today's events and market view US data disappointments are still putting downward pressure on yields, having stalled any attempt to move these higher over the past sessions. A busy slate of US data featuring Challenger job cuts data, initial jobless claims, personal income and spending data, as well as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure – the PCE deflator, which is seen slightly up this time – means there is plenty in store to push yields around again. EUR rates, however, may manage to detach from the US rates again as the focus turns to the flash eurozone CPI release and the ECB minutes of the July meeting. The latter may provide some more insight into any changes to the balancing of inflation versus macro risks and of course the growing debate between the Council’s hawks and doves. With Isabel Schnabel, there is also a prominent hawk slated to speak in the morning – she gives the opening remarks at a conference titled “Inflation: drivers and dynamics” and may well set the tone for the day. 
FX Markets React to Rising US Rates: Implications and Outlook

Rates Spark: Different Focus, Different Outcomes - 31.08.2023

ING Economics ING Economics 31.08.2023 10:29
Rates Spark: Different focus, different outcomes US data disappointments are still putting downward pressure on yields, and a busy calendar suggests more volatility ahead. EUR rates may detach from US dynamics as inflation data and European Central Bank minutes sharpen the focus on the upcoming ECB meeting.   The resilience narrative has driven US rates on the way up, and now down US Treasury yields remain under downward pressure as 10Y yields are trying to get a foothold at around 4.1% – early last week they had hit a high at 4.35%. Bund yields, on the other hand, have managed to bounce off the 2.5% level and as a result, the 10Y UST/Bund spread has tightened to 157bp. The narrative that has driven the wedge between the US and EUR rates is now narrowing it. That is also illustrated when looking at the market moves in real rates. They had been the driver of US rates going up and are now mostly the driver on the way down. 10Y real OIS rates have dropped some 17bp from the recent peak, although inflation swaps also slipped 8bp.       Real rates were the driver the UST/Bund gap, and also the latest retightening   Inflation remains the main preoccupation of EUR rates In Europe, the concerns have been more centred around inflation. Longer real rates never picked up and stuck to a tight range, reflecting the outlook for a longer period of stagnation that was also confirmed by the latest PMIs. Instead we had a slow grind higher in longer-term inflation expectations, picking up pace again with the second quarter. While the often cited 5y5y forward inflation has come off its recent highs, the market remains sensitive to the inflation topic, with the ECB now calibrating the final stage of its tightening cycle. The somewhat slower-than-anticipated decline in German inflation yesterday was important in keeping Bund yields off the 2.5% mark. It provided the ECB’s hawks with arguments for further tightening. Never mind that it could be the last burst of German inflation for a while, as our economist thinks – with the ECB’s current mindset being more focused on actual data than forecasts, that may well be all the more reason for the hawks to push for a hike in September and not wait any longer. It may be the last opportunity. Market pricing now sees the chances for a hike next month a tad above 50%, and 90% that we will see a hike by the end of the year.    Dynamics of inflation expectations played a larger role for EUR rates   Today's events and market view US data disappointments are still putting downward pressure on yields, having stalled any attempt to move these higher over the past sessions. A busy slate of US data featuring Challenger job cuts data, initial jobless claims, personal income and spending data, as well as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure – the PCE deflator, which is seen slightly up this time – means there is plenty in store to push yields around again. EUR rates, however, may manage to detach from the US rates again as the focus turns to the flash eurozone CPI release and the ECB minutes of the July meeting. The latter may provide some more insight into any changes to the balancing of inflation versus macro risks and of course the growing debate between the Council’s hawks and doves. With Isabel Schnabel, there is also a prominent hawk slated to speak in the morning – she gives the opening remarks at a conference titled “Inflation: drivers and dynamics” and may well set the tone for the day. 
China's August Yuan Loans Soar," Dollar Weakens Against Yen and Yuan, AUD/JPY Consolidates at 94.00 Level

China's August Yuan Loans Soar," Dollar Weakens Against Yen and Yuan, AUD/JPY Consolidates at 94.00 Level

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 12.09.2023 10:33
China’s new yuan loans skyrocketed to 1.36 trillion yuan in August, much higher than the prior month’s 345 billion yuan. Optimism grows for China’s outlook as stimulus appears to filtering throughout the economy Dollar has biggest drop in two months as yen and yuan gain The big risk aversion trade over the summer has seen AUD/JPY consolidate around the 94.00 level.  A downbeat outlook for China kept the Australian dollar heavy, while US economic resilience has kept yen softer on a widening interest rate differential.  The AUD/JPY daily highlights a global growth picture that is either looking for a China rebound, which should help Australia’s growth momentum or a Japan recovery that is not on solid footing. The AUD/JPY daily displays a symmetrical triangle that shows price has converged towards the 94.00 region.  The bullish trend that started in the spring ended mid-June ahead of the 97.70 level.  Price is poised to either resume the longer-term bullish trend that started after the pandemic low was made in March 2020 or potentially show the start of a significant bearish reversal.                   The Australian dollar and Japanese yen seems likely to remain a key risk barometer, which means it could react strongly with what happens with this week’s US inflation data and with China’s decision on rates and their activity data.  If bullishness emerges, price could initially targets the 95.50 region, while downside support would come from the 200-day SMA level, which currently resides at the 92.00 level. This week the Australian economic calendar is filled with economic data that might take a backseat to everything that happens from the US and China.  The main Australian data release of the week is Australia jobs, which could show job growth rebounded, but will unlikely bring back rate hike expectations for the RBA  
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Economic Calendar and Market Analysis for September 26-27: Euro and Pound React to ECB Announcement, Durable Goods Orders Awaited in the US

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2023 13:51
Details of the Economic Calendar on September 26 European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane announced a shift in monetary policy towards a more accommodative stance but also presented forecasts indicating the possibility of the first interest rate cut as early as the second quarter of next year. Furthermore, the refinancing rate could be reduced by 150 basis points over the next two years. Based on this information, the euro accelerated its decline, and as a result, the British pound also shifted towards active weakening.   Analysis of Trading Charts from September 26 The EUR/USD currency pair concluded its pullback with a new surge in the volume of short positions. As a result, the local low of the downward cycle was updated, and the technical signal of oversold euro remains in the market. On the other hand, the GBP/USD pair, during its inertial movement, does not respond to technical signals of oversold conditions. As a result, the exchange rate fell below the level of 1.2150, indicating significant speculative interest in short positions. Economic Calendar for September 27 Today, the publication of data on durable goods orders in the United States is expected, with expectations of a decrease of 1.4% in the volume of these orders. This should be considered in light of the previous month when they fell by 5.2%. Thus, this will be the second consecutive month of declining orders for durable goods. Durable goods orders reflect the state of consumer activity, which is a driver of economic growth. If the data confirms a decline in orders, this could put pressure on the dollar in the market.     EUR/USD Trading Plan for September 27 Based on the oversold signal for the euro exchange rate, it can be assumed that the support level at 1.0500 may play as support. In this case, there is a scenario of slowing down the current downward cycle within this level, which could lead to an increase in the volume of long-term positions, potentially resulting in a partial recovery of the euro exchange rate. However, if speculators ignore the technical oversold signal and the exchange rate remains below the level of 1.0500 during the day, this could support the momentum in the euro market for some time.   GBP/USD Trading Plan for September 27 If the inertial movement continues in the market, and traders continue to ignore the technical oversold signal for the British pound, further depreciation of the exchange rate towards the psychological level of 1.1950/1.2050 is possible. What's on the charts The candlestick chart type is white and black graphic rectangles with lines above and below. With a detailed analysis of each individual candle, you can see its characteristics relative to a particular time frame: opening price, closing price, intraday high and low. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a price may stop or reverse its trajectory. In the market, these levels are called support and resistance. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price reversed in history. This color highlighting indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the asset's price in the future. The up/down arrows are landmarks of the possible price direction in the future.    
GBP Outlook: EUR/GBP Nearing Critical Support at 0.8700 Amid UK Tax Cuts and Robust PMIs

Turbulence in GBP/USD Pair: Chart Analysis and Market Outlook

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.11.2023 15:00
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair reversed in favor of the US currency on Wednesday, consolidating below the corrective level of 38.2% (1.2477). However, this closure has not given bears anything, as today, the pair has returned to the zone between 1.2477 and 1.2513. If a rebound occurs from this zone, there is a high probability that the quote decline will resume toward the corrective level of 23.6% (1.2321). Closing above this zone will allow traders to expect a resumption of growth towards the Fibonacci level of 50.0% (1.2603).     The wave situation has become simpler and clearer. Waves still have a relatively large size, which adds inconvenience to trading. However, the trend is currently "bullish," and a breakthrough of the last low at 1.2372 is required to complete it. In this case, there will be signs of the pair transitioning to a "bearish" trend, which is more logical after a fairly strong rise. However, at the moment, the "bullish" trend persists, and bears cannot firmly establish themselves on the hard-won positions.   Late Tuesday evening in the US, the minutes of the last FOMC meeting were released. The report stated that the regulator would continue to make decisions based on incoming information. FOMC members almost unanimously agreed that tightening monetary policy should only continue in the case of unsatisfactory inflation dynamics. Not all policymakers are confident in a sufficiently restrictive policy to return inflation to 2%. None of the FOMC members voted for an increase or decrease in the interest rate. Thus, the Fed has again "left the door open" but has not provided any signals about future decisions. Inflation in the US decreased in October, which may further weaken the "hawkish" sentiment.   On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the pound and a new consolidation above the level of 1.2450. Thus, the growth process can be continued toward the next level at 1.2620. The upward trend corridor characterizes traders' sentiment as "bullish," and the "bullish" divergence on the CCI indicator warns of a possible continuation of the rise. Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:   The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category for the last report is slightly less "bearish." The number of long contracts in the hands of speculators decreased by 6180 units, and the number of short contracts decreased by 10299 units. The overall sentiment of major players has long changed to "bearish," between the number of long and short contracts, the gap is increasing, but now in the opposite direction: 57 thousand versus 74 thousand. There are still excellent prospects for the pound to continue falling. I do not expect a strong rise in the pound soon. Over time, bulls will continue to get rid of buy positions, as is the case with the European currency. The growth we have seen in recent weeks is corrective. News Calendar for the US and the UK: UK - Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (09:30 UTC). UK - Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (09:30 UTC). On Thursday, the economic events calendar contains only two fairly interesting entries. The impact of the information background on market sentiment today may be weak. Forecast for GBP/USD and Trader Tips: I recommend selling the pound this week on a rebound from the zone of 1.2477– 1.2513 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.2321. Or on a rebound from the level of 1.2603. I advised buying the pair on a consolidation above the level of 1.2513 with targets of 1.2603 and 1.2620, but such deals look excessively risky to me. They should be closed at the first sign of doubt.
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Economic Insights and Trading Strategies: November 22-23 Analysis for EUR/USD and GBP/USD

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.11.2023 15:04
Details of the Economic Calendar on November 22 Data on durable goods orders in the United States declined 5.4% in October, while the forecast predicted a drop of only 2.8%. The negative impact was slightly mitigated by data on jobless claims in the U.S., which reflected a decrease in their overall volume despite the forecast of an increase. Statistical details indicate that the volume of continuing claims fell from 1.862 million to 1.840 million, while the volume of initial claims rose from 233,000 to 209,000 Analysis of Trading Charts from November 22 During the corrective movement, the EUR/USD currency pair almost reached the level of 1.0850. This movement was characterized in the market as local, after which the quote returned above the level of 1.0900. The GBP/USD pair temporarily dropped below the level of 1.2450 during a technical pullback, but then returned to the area around the level of 1.2500. The current pullback fits into the structure of an upward cycle, and no shifts in trading interests are observed.   Economic Calendar on November 23 The publication of preliminary estimates for business activity indices in the United Kingdom and the United States is expected. Despite the importance of this event for the market, it is likely to go unnoticed. Today is a holiday in the United States due to Thanksgiving Day, which, in turn, will lead to a decrease in trading volumes. EUR/USD Trading Plan for November 23 Price stabilization above the level of 1.0900 may indicate a possible increase in the volume of long positions, paving the way to the level of 1.1000. On the other hand, holding the price below the level of 1.0850 may lead to an extension of the corrective cycle.     GBP/USD Trading Plan for November 23 Maintaining the price above the level of 1.2500 may subsequently indicate an increase in the volume of long positions. In this case, an update of the local high within the upward cycle is possible. As for the pullback scenario, it may be relevant if the price remains below the level of 1.2450.     What's on the charts The candlestick chart type is white and black graphic rectangles with lines above and below. With a detailed analysis of each individual candle, you can see its characteristics relative to a particular time frame: opening price, closing price, intraday high and low. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a price may stop or reverse its trajectory. In the market, these levels are called support and resistance. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price reversed in history. This color highlighting indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the asset's price in the future. The up/down arrows are landmarks of the possible price direction in the future.
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Analyzing EURCAD: Inflation Rates, Technicals, and Sentiment Indicators

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 04.12.2023 14:51
This article goes over different tools and indicators covering EURCAD, in some cases, cross-pairs can provide trade setups of a different nature as the US Dollar is partially taken out of the equation. Trading in financial markets requires an overview of different types of tools and the same applies to forex trading. Talking points Inflation Rate Overview – European Union and Canada Daily Chart Technical analysis Sentiment Indicators: Commitment of Traders report, and OANDA’s order book. Relative Rotation Graph Inflation Rate Overview – European Union and Canada   Source: Bloomberg Terminal   Inflation Rates globally are declining faster than expected and as global Central banks continue to tread carefully, traders continue to speculate on Central banks’ moves and are sometimes overwhelmed by conflicting central bankers’ comments or analyst’s opinions. Many Market participants are convinced that the recent decline in inflation suggests that Central banks should consider rate cuts, but Central banks still have concerns about inflation returning in any form. The latest CPI report from the EU shows inflation continues to decline reaching 2.4%, close to The European Central Bank (ECB) target of 2%. The current CPI may suggest that the ECB can hold interest rates at its current level but doesn’t warrant any rate cuts. ECB Nagel commented this morning that “Inflation risks are skewed to the upside”. The next CPI release is scheduled for December 19th, 2023, please check the economic calendar and your local time. In Canada, it’s a slightly different story, although the inflation rate is also declining the same as it is globally, it is declining at a slower pace than the EU. The inflation rate currently stands at 3.1%, down from its highs of 8.0% seen in June 2022. Daily Chart Technical analysis   Source: Tradingview.com   EURCAD price broke and closed below an intermediate trendline identified on the above daily timeframe chart, with no pullback to retest the broken level so far. The broken level was also a confluence of Support represented by 3 commonly used Moving average periods, EMA9, MA,9, MA21, and the monthly pivot point at 1.4800 Applying the weekly Stochastic indicator onto the Daily timeframe to smooth the readings suggests that EURCAD may be overbought and shows that %K just crossed below %D along with the break below the intermediate trendline mentioned above. Applying Daily RSI with its default period of 14 shows that RSI is so far in line with price action, however, it is currently neutral near level 50. MACD line crossed below its signal line and the Histogram is also turning bearish.       Sentiment Indicators: Commitment of Traders report, and OANDA’s order book Source: Tradingview.com   The Commitment of Traders report offers insights about positioning changes in the futures market, although delayed, it still helps as a sentiment tool in a trader’s arsenal. Comparing Position levels on the latest COT report shows that Large Speculators on both currencies are favoring long positions, however, it also suggests that the Canadian Dollar is closer to its extreme than the Euro, thus a higher probability of Sentiment change. The above chart is for EURUSD and USDCAD side by side with the COT report applied to both. (COT for Canadian Dollar is inverted, CADUSD) OANDA’s Orderbook Indicator   Source: OANDA.com   Another sentiment tool is the OANDA Orderbook Indicator, the above image reflects an aggregate view of pending entry orders on EURCAD for OANDA’s clients, the data falls under the Retail Traders category. The above image suggests that Retail traders are looking to buy as the price falls and sell as it rises, this is the typical retail trader sentiment and needs to be thought of carefully as Retail Traders can sometimes be in the opposite direction in trendy markets. The order book also reflects price levels that have the highest number of pending orders, these levels can be critical as the price continues to move regardless of direction. It is also important to note that the order book percentages include exit orders such as Stops and limits, we can continue to follow up on position percentage changes. Relative Rotation Graph   Source: Optuma.com   The Relative Rotation graph RRG (A measurement for Momentum and Relative strength) on the daily time frame shows EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD are currently in the Leading Quadrant, with EURUSD leading the pack and CADUSD attempting to catch up from the Improving quadrant. The arrow direction for all pairs except CAD is so far pointing south towards the weakening quadrant.  
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The Countdown to the Currency Market's 'Dead Season': What to Expect for EUR/USD in the Coming Weeks

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.12.2023 15:07
It's early December, which means traders have very little time left before the start of the "dead season." The currency market will be active for a few more weeks before entering the Christmas-New Year lethargy. The EUR/USD pair is no exception here. Typically, life in the FX market slows down after the December meetings of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (on December 12-13 and 14, respectively). For some time, traders reflect on the outcomes of these meetings, but inevitably, "winter holidays" set in. The main feature of the upcoming week is the "silence" of the Fed officials. The so-called "blackout period" started on Saturday: for 10 days leading up to the Fed meeting, officials of the U.S. central bank generally do not speak publicly or grant interviews. Therefore, EUR/USD traders will be focused on economic reports. Let's take a look at the economic calendar and see what awaits us in the coming days.   Monday The first working day is traditionally quite empty for EUR/USD. During the European session, the Sentix investor confidence indicator will be published. This is a leading indicator as it measures investors' sentiment towards the eurozone economy. Since March 2022, the indicator has been in the negative territory, but in November, it showed positive dynamics, rising from -21.9 to -18.6. In December, experts expect a further improvement to -15.0. Also on Monday, ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to speak. She will participate in a conference that includes a Q&A session. The head of the ECB may comment on the latest eurozone inflation data, although the theme of the meeting, let's say, does not lend itself to such questions (the conference is organized by the French Academy of Ethics and Political Sciences). During the U.S. session, a report on factory orders in America will be published. The volume of total orders is expected to decrease by 2.7% in October, while core orders are expected to increase by only 0.3%. Tuesday On Tuesday, the final estimates of the PMI data for November will be published. According to forecasts, they will coincide with the initial reports (in this case, the market will likely ignore this data). Traders will focus on the ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which will be published during the U.S. session. This indicator has declined over the past two months, but according to most experts, it will rise to 52.5 points in November. However, if the index falls into the "red zone," the dollar will come under significant pressure. Let me remind you that the ISM Manufacturing Index published last week did not support the greenback. In November, it reached 46.7 points, against forecasts of an increase to 48.0 (the manufacturing index has been in contraction territory for the 13th consecutive month). In addition, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release data on the level of job vacancies and labor turnover. However, considering that the market is anticipating the Non-Farm Payrolls data later in the week, they will likely overlook Tuesday's report.   Wednesday At the start of the European session, we will learn about the October volume of industrial orders in Germany. In annual terms, the indicator has been in the negative territory since July, and judging by forecasts, the situation is not expected to improve in October (forecast -5.6%). The main report of the day will be announced during the U.S. session, which is the non-farm employment in the United States from ADP. This report is considered to play the role of a kind of "harbinger" ahead of the release of official data—although quite often these indicators do not correlate. Nevertheless, the ADP report can trigger increased volatility among dollar pairs, especially if it comes out in the green/red zone. According to experts, 120,000 non-farm jobs were created in November. If the figure falls below the 100,000 mark, the greenback may come under pressure. Also, U.S. data on labor cost will be published (final estimate). This indicator, for the first time since the beginning of 2021, dropped into negative territory in the third quarter. According to forecasts, the final estimate will be revised downwards (from -0.8% to -0.9%). On the same day, ECB Executive Board member Joachim Nagel (head of the Bundesbank) will speak. Before the release of the latest data on eurozone inflation, he voiced rather hawkish theses, allowing for additional interest rate hikes in the foreseeable future. We do not know whether his position will change in light of recent events.   Thursday On this day, we will learn the final estimate of the eurozone Q3 GDP data. According to forecasts, the final result should match the second estimate (-0.1%). During the U.S. session, weekly data on initial jobless claims will be published. Since mid-October, this indicator has fluctuated in the range of 210,000 to 220,000 (except for one week when the count jumped to 233,000). According to forecasts, for the upcoming week, the indicator will come in at 220,000, i.e., at the upper limit of the "established" range. Furthermore, secondary economic reports will be released (wholesale inventories - final estimate, and consumer credit), but they usually do not have any significant impact on the market.   Friday On the last day of the trading week, key U.S. labor market data for the month of November will be published. According to preliminary forecasts, the unemployment rate in November will remain at the October level, i.e., at 3.9%. The number of non-farm payrolls is expected to increase by 185,000 (after a 150,000 increase in October) – meaning the figure will once again fall short of the 200,000 mark. In the private sector, the number of employed is expected to grow by 155,000 (after a 99,000 increase in October). And the average hourly wage level is expected to demonstrate a downtrend again – down to 4.0% YoY (in this case, it will be the lowest value of the indicator since August 2021). Obviously, such a result will not benefit the dollar, especially amid a decrease in CPI, producer price index, and the core PCE index.   On the bullish side, we have the dovish comments from some of the Fed officials (Waller, Goolsby), conflicting signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and a decline in key inflation indicators. On the bearish side, we have the eurozone inflation data. The "red tint" of the latest report put an end to the discussion about the ECB rate hike in the coming months. The euro lost its fundamental trump card, but, as we know, the EUR/USD pair can successfully rise only due to the dollar's weakness. For instance, on Friday, the bears tried to break through to the 1.08 level but eventually failed. In my opinion, in the medium-term perspective (until the release of the NFP data), traders will exercise caution (both sellers and buyers), trading on "neutral territory," i.e., in the range of 1.0850 – 1.0930 (lower and middle Bollinger Bands lines on the 4H timeframe, respectively).
The December CPI Upside Surprise: Why Markets Remain Skeptical About a Fed Rate Cut in March"   User napisz liste keywords, oddzile je porzecinakmie ChatGPT

UK Wage Growth and US CPI: Insights for Central Banks' Rate Policies

Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 12.12.2023 14:35
UK wage growth and US CPI set to slow   By Michael Hewson (Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)   European equity markets got off to a slow start to the week yesterday, closing modestly higher with the FTSE100 underperforming due to concerns over weak demand out of China.   US markets were also resilient with the S&P500 and Dow both eking out new highs for 2023, as investors looked cautiously towards this week's central bank meetings of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and the Bank of England, and their respective outlooks for rate policy heading into 2024.     Asia markets have continued in the positive vein of yesterday with that momentum set to continue into today's European open.   With the Federal Reserve due to start its 2-day meeting later today, and the Bank of England set to decide on rates on Thursday, today's UK wages data and US CPI numbers could go some way to shaping how policymakers react when they deliver their guidance on monetary policy later this week.     We start with the latest UK wages numbers for the 3-months to October and where wages have been trending higher by more than 8% for the last 3-months if bonuses are included.   Some at the Bank of England have been fretting about this high level of wages growth but they really shouldn't be given how badly inflation has impacted the pay packets of consumers these past 2 hours.   All that is happening now is that some of the purchasing power that has been lost over the last few months is slowly being clawed back and for the most part will take years to recover back to pre-pandemic levels. The central bank needs to be careful about overreacting to a phenomenon that they were too slow in reacting to on the way in.     With food prices only just recently dropping below 10% for the first time in over a year it can hardly be a wage price spiral if consumers are finally seeing the price/wage ratio finally starting to turn positive in their favour. Expectations are for wages ex-bonuses to slow from 7.7% to 7.4%, which might not be enough to reverse the calls for further rate hikes from the 3 hawks on the MPC, of Mann, Haskel and Greene. Later this afternoon we'll get to see whether the slowdown we saw in US CPI during October has continued into November.   US inflation fell to 3.2% in October, down from 3.7% reversing a trend that had seen inflation fall to 3% in June, before gaining ground in subsequent months.   Core CPI on the other hand has been steadier, slowing at a more modest pace and coming in at 4%. More importantly, super core inflation which the Fed monitors closely also slowed, and with the risk of a US government shutdown postponed until January next year, the economic risks to the US economy appear to have diminished further.   There has been some concern that the resilience of the US economy may delay the return to the 2% target, however judging by the latest PPI data there is little sign of inflationary pressure in respect of company's costs. These also slowed sharply in October declining -0.5%, dragging final demand down from 2.2% to 1.3%, in a sign that we could see further downside in US CPI, with the potential to slip below 3% before the end of the year.     Headline CPI for November is forecast to slow to 3.1%, with core prices remaining steady at 4%.       EUR/USD – holding above the 200-day SMA for now, stopping short last week at 1.0724, with a break below 1.0700 targeting the prospect of further losses toward the November lows at 1.0520. We need to see a move back through 1.0830 to stabilise. GBP/USD – tight range but holding above the 200-day SMA for now, with only a break below 1.2460 signalling a broader test of the 1.2350 area. Resistance currently at 1.2620 area.  EUR/GBP – still range trading between the 0.8590 area and the lows at 0.8545/50. While below the 0.8615/20 area the risk remains for a move towards the September lows at 0.8520, and potentially further towards the August lows at 0.8490. USD/JPY – after last week's test of the 200-day SMA at 142.50 we've seen a solid rebound with the move above 146.20 arguing for a move back towards 148.20. FTSE100 is expected to open 13 points higher at 7,558 DAX is expected to open 51 points higher at 16,845 CAC40 is expected to open 18 points higher at 7,569
All Eyes on US Inflation: Impact on Rate Expectations and Market Sentiment

Year-End Reflections: Markets Cheer Softening Inflation, Diverging Central Bank Policies, and the Oil Conundrum

ING Economics ING Economics 27.12.2023 15:18
Notes from a slow year-end morning By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank  The last PCE print for the US was perfect. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) favourite gauge of inflation, printed 0.1% advance on a monthly basis – it was softer than expected, core PCE fell to 3.2% on a yearly basis – it was also softer than expected, and core PCE fell to 1.9% on a 6-month basis, and that's below the Fed's 2% inflation target.   Normally, you wouldn't necessarily cheer a slowdown in 6-month inflation but because investors are increasingly impatient to see the Fed cut its interest rates, all metrics are good to justify the end of the Fed's policy tightening campaign. So here we are, cheering the fact that the 6-month core PCE fell below the Fed's 2% target in November. The US 2-year yield is preparing to test the 4.30% to the downside, the 10-year yield makes itself comfy below the 4% mark – and even the 3.90% this morning, and the stocks joyfully extend their rally. The S&P500 closed last week a few points below a ytd high, Nasdaq100 and Dow Jones consolidated near ATH levels and the US dollar looks miserable. The dollar index is at the lowest level since summer and about to step into the February to August bearish trend.   There is not much data left to go before this year ends. We have a light economic calendar for the week, and the trading volumes will be thin due to the end-end holiday.   Morning notes from a slow morning  Major central banks reined in on inflation in 2023 – the inflation numbers are surprisingly, and significantly lower than the expectations. Remember, we though – at the start of the year - that the end of China's zero-Covid measures was the biggest risk to inflation. Well, we simply have been served the exact opposite: China's inability to rebound, and inability to generate inflation simply helped getting the rest of us out of inflation. China did not contribute to inflation but to disinflation instead.  The Fed sounds significantly more dovish than its European peers – even though inflation in Europe and Britain have come significantly down, and their sputtering economies would justify softer monetary policies, whereas the US economy remains uncomfortably strong. Released last Friday, the US durables goods orders jumped 5.4% in November! The diverging speed between the US and the European economies makes the policy divergence between the dovish Fed and the hawkish European central banks look suspicious. Yes, the EURUSD will certainly end this year above that 1.10 mark, nonetheless, the upside potential will likely remain limited.   Elsewhere, everyone I talk to is short USDJPY, or short EURJPY, or GBPJPY. But the bullish sentiment in the yen makes the yen stronger and a stronger yen will help inflation ease in Japan, and slow inflation will allow the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to remain relaxed about normalizing policy. And indeed, released this morning, the BoJ core inflation fell more than expected to 2.7%. Bingo! Therefore, it looks like the USDJPY's downside potential may be coming to a point of exhaustion near the 140 – in the absence of fresh news.   In energy, oil is having such a hard time this year. The barrel of American crude couldn't break the $74pb resistance and there is now a death cross formation on a daily chart. Yet the oil bulls have all the reasons on earth to push this rally further: the tensions in Suez Canal are mounting, the war in the Middle East gets uglier, Iran looks increasingly involved in the conflict, OPEC restricts production, and central banks are preparing to cut rates. But interestingly, none has been enough to strengthen the back of the bulls. Failure to clear the $74/75 resistance will eventually weaken the trend and send the price of a barrel below $70pb. If that's the case, there will be even more reason to be confident about a series of rate cuts next year.  

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