ecb interest rate

Stocks go up as the US inflation print surprises market participants, but we cannot forget about other important events this week, which are three key decision of three key central banks. Even if today's US infation print seems to cement the 50bp rate hike, UK economy is still ahead of CPI inflation print. In the same time it's still not sure which variant European Central Bank is going to choose on Thursday and, what's event more important, what's beyond. Today, we're delighted to hear from John Hardy, Head of FX Strategy at Saxo Bank.

given the further encouragement from a strongly recovering sterling and lower natural gas and petrol prices, I don’t expect fireworks in the guidance even if inflation proves a bit hotter then expected

BoE is expected to hike the rate by 50bp on Thursday, but the day before CPI inflation data is published - would you expect a hawkich pivot if CPI bounces back above November print?

John Hardy, Head of FX Strategy at Saxo Bank: BoE: I don’t think any single inflation print will unsettle the BoE here, just look at the huge recovery in sterling from the lows, which will help stabilize inflation relative to other countries just as sterling weaknes

ECB April Preview: Quicker end to QE to help euro recover

ECB April Preview: Quicker end to QE to help euro recover

FXStreet News FXStreet News 13.04.2022 16:55
Euro has been struggling to find demand since the beginning of April. ECB is widely expected to leave key rates unchanged. A hawkish shift in ECB's policy outlook could trigger a steady rebound in EUR/USD. EUR/USD is already down more than 2% in April amid the apparent policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). The European economy is widely expected to suffer heavier damage from a protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine than the US economy, and the Fed remains on track to hike its policy rate by 50 basis points in May. The shared currency needs the ECB to adopt a hawkish policy stance in order to stay resilient against the greenback. In March, the ECB left interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively. The bank further announced that monthly net purchases under the Asset Purchase Programme (APP), which were initially planned to end in the fourth quarter, will amount to €40 billion in April, €30 billion in May and €20 billion in June before ending in the third quarter. Related article: ECB Interest Rate Decision Is Coming! European Indices (DAX, CAC40) To Plunge Or Rise? What About Forex Pairs? The accounts of the ECB’s March meeting revealed earlier in the month that a large number of the governing council members held the view that the current high level of inflation and its persistence called for immediate further steps towards monetary policy normalization. Hawkish scenario The ECB could decide to adjust the monthly purchases to open the door for a rate hike in the second half of the year if needed. The bank might keep the purchases under APP unchanged at €40 billion in April but bring them down to €20 billion in May to conclude the program by June. Even if the policy statement refrains from offering hints on the timing of the first rate increase, such an action could be seen as a sign pointing to a June hike. In a less-hawkish stance, the bank may choose to leave the APP as it is but change the wording on the QE to say that it will be completed in June rather than in Q3. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s language on the timing of the rate hike will be key if the bank decides not to touch the APP. During the press conference in March, Lagarde noted that the rate hike would come “some time” after the end of QE. If Lagarde confirms that they will raise the policy rate right after they end the APP, this could also be seen as a hawkish change in forward guidance. Dovish scenario The ECB might downplay inflation concerns and choose to shift its focus to supporting the economy in the face of heightened uncertainty by leaving the policy settings and the language on the outlook unchanged. The euro is likely to come under heavy selling pressure if the bank reiterates that the APP will end in the third quarter as planned. That would push the timing of the first rate hike toward September and put the ECB way behind the curve in comparison to other major central banks. According to the CME Group FedWatch, markets are pricing in a more-than-60% probability of back-to-back 50 bps hikes in May and June. Conclusion The ECB is likely to respond to the euro’s weakness, aggressive tightening prospects of major central banks and hot inflation in the euro area by turning hawkish in April. For EUR/USD to stage a steady rebound, however, the bank may have to convince markets that they are preparing to hike the policy rate by June. On the other hand, there will be no reason to stop betting against the euro if the bank chooses to leave its policy settings and forward guidance unchanged. EUR/USD technical outlook EUR/USD closed the previous seven trading days below the 20-day SMA and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator stays below 40, suggesting that bears continue to dominate the pair’s action. On the downside, 1.0800 (psychological level, March low) aligns as first support. With a daily close below that level on a dovish ECB, EUR/USD could target 1.0700 (psychological level) and 1.0630 (March 2020 low). Key resistance seems to have formed at 1.0900 (psychological level, static level). In case this level turns into support, a steady rebound toward 1.1000 (psychological level, 20-day SMA) and 1.1100 (static level, psychological level) could be witnessed.
Investors' Concerns About The Coming Recession In The UK, Will GBP/USD Pair Reach Its Lowest Level In History?

ECB Offering The Euro Support (EUR/USD), Strengthening Of The Renminbi Supporting The EUR and GBP, SNB Turns Hawkish (EUR/CHF) - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 23.05.2022 10:29
Summary: ECB offering support to the EUR, whilst easing lockdowns in China aids in the weakening US Dollar. Euro and GBP are likely to strengthen with the Renminbi. SNB and ECB hawkishness offers support to their respective currencies. GBP/CAD Read next: US Dollar Is Likely To Experience Volatility In The Coming Weeks (EUR/USD), UK Retail Data Exceeds Market Expectations (EUR/GBP), SNB Turns Hawkish Causing the CHF To Rally (EUR/CHF) - Good Morning Forex!  Easing lockdowns in China dragging down the US Dollar Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bullish signals. On Monday the European Central Bank (ECB) announced that it is likely that July would be the starting period for raising interest rates. At the same time, the easing of lockdowns in China has aided in weakening the US Dollar. The trading week is full of US events along with some European Central Bank events, all of which will be watched closely. EUR/USD Price Chart Euro and GBP both showing signs of strengthening Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting mixed signals. The prospect of the Chinese Renminbi rebounding is likely to have a positive impact on the value of both the Pound Sterling and the Euro. In addition the market believes that the Bank of England (BoE) is likely to continue raising interest rates in the coming months along with the increased likelihood of the European Central Bank (ECB) raising the interest rates. EUR/GBP Price Chart SNB and ECB hawkishness caused mixed sentiment for this currency pair. On Thursday last week the president of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) said that they were ready to act on the rising inflation, the hawkishness of the SNB caused the Swiss Franc to rally. The potential hawkishness of the European Central Bank (ECB) is also causing the Euro to strengthen, leaving the market sentiment for this currency pair showing mixed signals. EUR/CHF Price Chart GBP rallies against the CAD The strengthening of the GBP against the CAD throughout last week has come in the wake of increasing UK government bond yields. The strengthening came in the wake of the release of UK employment data, inflation and retail data all which support further increases in the UK government bond yields. GBP/CAD Price Chart Read next: (FTSE) FTSE 100 Rallies In Response To Positive Economic Data, US Dollar Expected To See More Volatility  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
The EUR/USD Cross-Currency Pair Rises For The Fourth Consecutive Day

FOMC Meeting Minutes Offer Support To The US Dollar (EUR/USD), Improved Market Attitude Favoured The GBP On Thursday (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD), Market Awaits RBA Monetary Policy - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.05.2022 11:58
Summary: Investor confidence in both the Euro and US Dollar causing mixed sentiment for the EUR/USD currency pair. GBP beats Euro and USD despite poor PMI data released on Tuesday. RBA June policy meeting will determine the AUD strength Read next: Hawkish ECB Bodes Well For The Euro, UK PMI Data Disappoints (EUR/GBP), Hawkish SNB Offers Swiss Franc Still Support (USD/CHF), AUD/JPY - Good Morning Forex!  Mixed sentiment for the EUR/USD The market is reflecting mixed market signals for this major currency pair. In the Wake of the FOMC meeting minutes, the US Dollar has found some stability. The market can expect a 50bp interest rate hike at the next two Fed meetings, with a possible pause in the hikes later on in the year. The Euro is also on an upward streak with the strong possibility of the European Central Bank (ECB) tightening monetary policy in July. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP strengthens The market is reflecting bearish market sentiment for this currency pair. On Thursday the GBP recovered some of its losses against the Euro after the UK PMI report on Tuesday. Improved market attitude acted in favour of the Pound Sterling against the Euro on Thursday. However, the outlook for the GBP still looks challenging going forward with an overly cautious Bank of England, high-inflation and global risk aversion. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP/USD reflecting bullish sentiment Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bullish signals. On Thursday the GBP recovered some of its losses against the US Dollar. Improved market attitude acted in favour of the Pound Sterling against the US Dollar on Thursday. GBP/USD Price Chart Future of the AUD waits the RBA monetary policy decision The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) June policy meeting will likely see a future hike in interest rates. If the RBA tightens their monetary policy the Australian Dollar could strengthen. If the RBA chooses a dovish approach, the Aussie Dollar could struggle. AUD/USD Price Chart Read next: EUR Falls To US Dollar (EUR/USD), Pound Sterling Due To Weaken As UK Recession Looms (EUR/GBP), Market Awaits Fed Meeting Minutes (USD/CHF, GBP/USD)  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundtserlinglive.com
Forex Wakes You Up! (USD) US Dollar Index Is Not Far From 110.00! EUR/USD Is Expected To Be Hovering Between 0.99-1.01

Euro Enters The Week Strong As The Market Awaits ECB Announcements Due Later This Week (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF), Focus On The RBA Announcement On Tuesday (GBP/AUD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 06.06.2022 15:22
Summary: ECB interest rate decision due to occur later this week. Confidence vote being held for Boris Johnsson later on Monday. Investor confidence could be returning to the markets. On Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australian (RBA) is due to announce its decision regarding tightening of monetary policy. Read next: Altcoins: Decentraland (MANA), What Is It? A Deeper Look Into The Decentraland Platform  EUR strong entering the week On Monday market sentiment for this currency pair turned bearish. The Euro opened stronger on Monday as the market awaits the European Central Banks (ECB) interest rate decision, which is due to occur later this week. If the European Central Bank shows any signs of dovish intentions, the effects could be heavy on the Euro's downside, however, if a hawkish attitude is shown (which seems to be more likely), the upside effect on the euro may be minimal as the expected hike is already priced into the market. U.S CPI data is expected to close off this week, if there is another undershoot regarding the CPI data, it will just confirm that inflation has reached its peak and add to dovish pressure. EUR/USD Price Chart Both Euro and Pound sterling entered the week strong The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. As the market awaits the European Central Bank's (ECB) announcement regarding the decision for interest rates in July and September, the Euro entered the week strong. In addition, the pound sterling also entered the week strong despite a confidence vote being held this evening to determine Prime Minister Boris Johnssons future as leader. The pound sterling holding strength, shows its resilience to political tensions. EUR/GBP Price Chart EUR/CHF bullish The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. Amidst the expected announcements from the European Central Bank this week, the Euro has entered the week strong, even against the safe-haven Swiss Franc. During times of economic stress, investors normally turn to safe-haven assets, however investor confidence seems to be returning to the markets. EUR/CHF Price Chart RBA due to make an announcement The Australian Dollar entered its third week of gains this week in the wake of China’s easing of Covid-19 lockdowns and stronger than expected GDP data. However, on Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australian (RBA) is due to announce its decision regarding tightening of monetary policy. The price of the GBP/AUD currency pair is sensitive to the price changes of the GBP/USD currency pair. GBP/AUD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Has Shown That It Is Not Shy About Intervening In The Currency Markets

ECB Interest Rate Announcement Due Tomorrow Offers Euro Support (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP), JPY Facing Negative Outlook (USD/JPY), Potential For A Hawkish SNB Offers CHF Support (USD/CHF)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 08.06.2022 16:22
Summary: Markets are becoming more optimistic around hopes of a more hawkish European Central Bank (ECB). Firmer oil prices adding to downward pressure on JPY. Strong market expectations of a more hawkish Swiss National Bank (SNB). Read next: DOW 30 Turbulent In The Wake Of Targets (TGT) Profit Warning, Japanese Yen Suffering From BoJ Monetary Easing  Euro holds steady The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The markets are becoming more optimistic around hopes of a more hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) tomorrow after adding a couple more basis points to the yearly forecasts. There has been talk of a 50bps hike in July and rumors of a possible hike on Thursday, it is likely that the market could see a change in ECB tone which has allowed the Euro to remain resilient against the US Dollar. On Wednesday, the market opened with strong economic Q1 data for the eurozone. The euro did not react instantly to the release of this data, likely due to its delay. EUR/USD Price Chart Anticipation of ECBs announcement offers Euro support The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The Euro has gained against the pound sterling ahead of the market awaiting the European Central Banks (ECB) interest rate announcement, which is due tomorrow. Earlier in the trading week the pound sterling rallied in response to the news of Boris Johnssons vote of no confidence. If the ECB announces an interest rate hike in July, the pound sterling currency could be under pressure against the Euro. EUR/GBP Price Chart Negative outlook for Japanese Yen is likely to continue The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. In addition to the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continuing its monetary easing, firmer oil prices have added to the downward pressure on the Japanese Yen and both of these factors will continue to add to the negative outlook for the safe-haven currency. USD/JPY Price Chart CHF holding its position in the market The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The Swiss Franc has recovered against the US Dollar in comparison to the lows experienced in mid-May when the US Dollar was at its strongest, the recovery comes in the wake of market expectations of a more hawkish Swiss National Bank (SNB). the expectations come from indications from policy makers that the SNB will increase its interest rates for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis. USD/CHF Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
Interest Rates In Eurozone Will Continue To Increase In The Coming Meetings

Strong Expectations For ECB To Hike Interest Rates Is Offering The Euro Support (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP), Hawkish RBA is Offering AUD Support (AUD/JPY), US Dollar Benefitted From AUD Risk Sensitivity (AUD/USD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 09.06.2022 12:26
Summary: ECB announcement due on Thursday, analysts expect hawkish moves. Dovish BoJ causing the safe-haven asset to weaken. The market is reflecting bearish signals for the AUD/USD currency pair. Read next: Alibaba (BABA) Amongst US Listed Chinese Stocks That Have Seen Major Gains  ECB expected hawkish attitude supporting EUR The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The highlight of the Thursday trading day for the foreign exchange markets is the European Central Banks (ECB) announcement. Over the past few weeks, members of the ECB have been stressing the need for interest rate hikes in July with the bank's president, Christine Lagarde saying the July hioke would likely be followed by a September hike. The strong expectations are offering the Euro support against the US Dollar. EUR/USD Price Chart Euro strengthens against the GBP The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The Euro could strengthen further against the pound sterling if the European Central Bank (ECB) ends up turning hawkish as analysts expect. Over the past few weeks, members of the ECB have been stressing the need for interest rate hikes in July with the bank's president, Christine Lagarde saying the July hioke would likely be followed by a September hike. EUR/GBP Price Chart RBA hawkish vs BoJ dovish The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The AUD/JPY currency pair is one of the more volatile currency pairs. The Australian Dollar has gained on the safe-haven Japanese Yen over the past week due to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) turning hawkish and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) choosing to continue with monetary easing. AUD/JPY Price Chart US Dollar benefitted from AUD risk sensitivity The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. Inflation worries resurfaced on Wall Street, which drove US stocks lower, this sentiment may have a domino effect on the Asia-Pacific markets. The fall in sentiment weighted on the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar, thus benefiting the US Dollar in this currency pair. AUD/USD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Rising U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Have Helped The USD/JPY Bulls

US CPI Inflation Acceleration Likely To See Hawkish Fed Retaliation (EUR/USD), On Thursday The Market Expects The BoE Monetary Policy Decision (EUR/GBP)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 13.06.2022 14:42
Summary: High US CPI inflation is likely to cause the Fed to retaliate, offering USD support. The market is reflecting mixed market signals for the EUR/GBP currency pair. Sharp decline in the value of the JPY sparks BoJ response. Read next: US CPI Data Due On Friday Offers USD Support (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF), Pound Sterling Rallies Against Euro Due To The ECB Press Conference Ambiguity (EUR/GBP)  EUR/USD Bearish as the market expects a hawkish Fed The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate fell heavily during last week's trading week in the wake of a toxic combination of international and domestic headwinds and could likely remain under pressure in the coming days if the Fed and US bond yields continue to wear down global investor sentiment. The high US CPI inflation rate indicates that inflation is showing no signs of peaking, the Federal reserve is likely to continue on its hawkish path of tightening monetary policy, which is offering the USD support. EUR/USD Price Chart Hawkish BoE could offer GBP support The market is reflecting mixed market signals for this currency pair. On Thursday the Bank of England (BoE) is due to make a monetary policy decision, if the Bank adopts a more hawkish tone, the pound sterling could strengthen against the EUR. However, economists don't expect a large increase in interest rates and the BoE has been pushing back from hawkish market expectations for its interest rate to reach either 2% or more by year end. EUR/GBP Price Chart BoJ may be ready to step in to save the JPY The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. On Friday the Bank of Japan (BoJ) made a joint government statement which echoed the concerns over the yen’s sharp decline, which indicated that the BoJ may be ready to respond appropriately. In his latest address to parliament, Kuroda stated, "The yen's recent sharp declines are negative for Japan's economy and therefore undesirable, as they make it hard for companies to set business plans". USD/JPY Price Chart AUD/JPY currency pair The market is reflecting bullish market sentiment for this currency pair. The sharp weakening of the Japanese Yen has caused the BoJ to hint plans of stepping in to save the safe-haven currency. AUD/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com  
The Idea Of A Probable Pivot In The Fed’s Policy Keeps The Price Action Around The DXY Depressed

US Dollar Hitting 19-year Highs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD), Russia Cuts Off Gas Taps (EUR/GBP), GBP/AUD Currency Pair & RBA Policy Decision

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 05.07.2022 17:21
Summary: The US Dollar is hitting 19 year highs on Tuesday. Russia turns gas taps off Europe, plunging the Euro. UK strikes over pay began on Tuesday. RBA policy decisions lacked hawkish rhetoric. Read next: A Global Economic Slowdown Is Causing Risk-Off Sentiment, The US Dollar Remains Strong and AUD Expected To Be Currency Most Affected (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/AUD  US Dollar Continues on its strengthening path The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The US Dollar is hitting 19 year highs on Tuesday, this has been helped by a plunging EUR/USD currency pair, which has set its own 19-year low. Whilst there has been no particular event that has sparked the plunging of the Euro, the combination of a multiple of things has driven its downfall. Hence, the events include Russian gas deliveries for June which was 40% shorter than expected, this has caused European gas prices to remain elevated. In addition, Nord stream is set to close completely for annual maintenance, where it shuts down completely during July 11-21st, the risk, however, is that the pipeline may not come back online. In addition European Central Bank (ECB) representative Nagel did little to help the Euro as he cautioned against using monetary policy to limit risk premia of indebted states, he also stated that an Anti-Fragmentation tool could only be used during exceptional circumstances. Although Bundesbank’s Nagel is part of the minority, this does raise the risk of a watered-down Anti-Frag tool, which has ultimately disappointed the market expectations. EUR/USD Price Chart Russia turns the gas taps off to a pipeline. The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The Euro is on its backfoot against the pound sterling in the wake of surging Eurozone energy prices after Russia cut off the taps to a key pipeline. The Euro has been aggressively sold during the Tuesday trading day, starting from 8am London time. This is putting pressure on the Euro. EUR/GBP Price Chart Strikes in the UK began on Tuesday The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. Strikes in the UK over salaries began on Tuesday and could cut the country's gas output by almost a quarter and could exacerbate supply shortages in the wake of the war in the Ukraine. There is a possibility that around 15% of Norway's oil output could also be cut by Saturday, this is according to a Reuters calculation and is based on the plans of union members to gradually escalate their action over the coming days. Amidst these facts, the US Dollar remains strong. GBP/USD Price Chart GBP/AUD The pound sterling to Australian Dollar currency pair has been volatile, but may still struggle to rise if the US Dollar doesn't hold onto its Tuesday highs in the coming days. The AUD tumbled before most of its currency counterparts on Tuesday in the wake of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) July policy decision, which saw the cash rate lifted by 0.5% for a second time, taking it up to 1.35% for the time being. Despite this move, the decision was widely expected by the markets, however, the statement that came with the policy decision indicated to the markets that the hawkish rhetoric from the RBA was lacking. GBP/AUD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
Investors' Concerns About The Coming Recession In The UK, Will GBP/USD Pair Reach Its Lowest Level In History?

Pound Sterling Offered Support After News That Boris Johnson Is Set To Step Down (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD), FED FOMC Meeting Minutes (EUR/USD), Japan’s Upper House Elections (USD/JPY)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 07.07.2022 16:36
Summary: ECB and FOMC meeting minutes release. UK Prime Minister set to step down. GBP is little changed. Japan’s upper house elections. Read next: Bearish Outlook For The EUR/USD Currency Pair, Euro & GBP Are Only Two Currencies Dominated By The US Dollar’s Strength (EUR/GBP, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY)  ECB & Fed FOMC meeting minutes. The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The Euro has been under big pressure in the wake of global recessionary fears gripping the markets and causing its price to break below multi-decade lows. Earlier in Thursday's trading day, the Euro had managed to recover from some of the lows seen on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes were released. Later on Thursday the meeting minutes of the last European Central Bank (ECB) meeting are due to be released and almost any hawkish rhetoric could benefit the Euro. EUR/USD Price Chart Boris Johnson set to step down The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. Boris Johnson is set to resign in the wake of many high-profile resignations within his government in protest of Boris Johnson’s continuing leadership, the current Prime Minister is set to address the media later on Thursday. This news has aided the EUR/GBP currency pair in its downward momentum. In addition, the Euro itself isn’t faring well amidst economic concerns, the potential for widening periphery bond spreads as the European Central Bank raises rates, and ofcourse the possibility of complications in restoring Russian gas inflows to Germany via Nord Stream 1 which is also due to undergo routine maintenance from next Monday until the 21st July. EUR/GBP Price Chart Strong US Dollar. The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The US Dollar continues to strengthen in the wake of the Fed FOMC meeting minutes released late on Wednesday, and the continuing hawkish rhetoric. The GBP is little changed in most corresponding currency pairs. GBP/USD Price Chart Rising cost-of-living in Japan The market is reflecting bullish sentiment for this currency pair. The rising cost-of-living in Japan continues to squeeze domestic households' income ahead of Japan's upper house election on Sunday. The release of the Fed's FOMC meeting minutes has offered the US Dollar more support on Thursday whilst inflation is currently showing signs of becoming more politically based in Japan in the wake of the continuing cost-of-living squeeze. USD/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com  
The Japanese Yen Has The Worst Performer Among The G-10 Currencies

EUR/USD Attempts Parity (EUR/USD), Noord Stream Maintenance Is Underway (EUR/GBP), BoC Policy Decision Due Wednesday (GBP/CAD), USD/JPY

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 11.07.2022 16:42
Summary: The Euro continues to be one of the more susceptible currencies as many headwinds build up. Will Russia resume gas supply to Noord Stream? Will the BoC policy decision offer CAD support? BoJ would do whatever is necessary to help the economy grow. Read next: Recession Fears Are Affecting Brent Crude Prices, Silver Price vs A Hawkish Federal Reserve, Corn At 8-Week Highs  US Dollar continues to strengthen across the board The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. On Monday the Noord Stream, Germany’s biggest pipeline closed for annual maintenance until the 21st July. The maintenance time period has increased speculation on whether or not Russia will resume gas flows after the maintenance has been completed. The Euro continues to be one of the more susceptible currencies as many headwinds build up. The European Central Bank (ECB) is still on track to raise interest rates (at least 25 bps) at their next meeting later on in July. The US Dollar continues to rise across the board, and investor attention will be aimed in the direction of the US CPI inflation data release for June on Wednesday. EUR/USD Price Chart   EUR/GBP mixed sentiment The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The pound sterling will continue to be affected by external events whilst politics grabs headlines. The Euro continues to be negatively affected by a combination of events. One of the main events being whether or not Russia will turn the taps back on for gas supplies through the Noord Stream once the maintenance is over, if they do not, the possibility of a recession in the Euro area will increase largely. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP/CAD hovers around 10-year lows The markets are keeping alert as they await the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) policy decision on Wednesday. Although the GBP/CAD currency pair hovers near 10 year lows, both currencies remained little changed on Monday and were both middle-of-the road performers amongst major currencies. GBP/CAD Price Chart BoJ representative speaks The market is reflecting mixed sentiment for this currency pair. A Bank of Japan (BoJ) representative warned the market that the current economic outlook remains uncertain due to the rising commodity prices and that the BoJ would do whatever is necessary to help the economy grow. The same representative also said that Japan’s financial system is robust, the economy is starting to improve and that the central bank would keep interest rates stable at the current or lower levels. USD/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Short-term analysis - Euro to US dollar by InstaForex - 31/10/22

EUR/USD Could Be Shaken This Week! Eurozone Inflation Is About To Be Released

Jing Ren Jing Ren 29.08.2022 15:01
EuroZone CPI and EU Market Turmoil Tomorrow, Germany reports CPI figures for July. That gives us a first look at what to expect from inflation data out of the EuroZone to be released on Wednesday. The consensus is for another increase, which would help firm up the case for another 50bps hike by the BCE at their meeting in two weeks. This is the last major inflation data the central bank will have before they decide on what to do with monetary policy. Last week, the ECB released minutes from their July meeting, showing they intended to keep tightening. That also implies that a "double" rate hike is likely. Unless there is a major shift in the data, that would catch everyone by surprise. The expectation is for inflation to get worse in the shared economy, both in the headline number and core reading. Read more: A Quick Look At Jerome Powell's (Fed) Key Statements At Jackson Hole Meeting| FXMAG.COM Starting with Germany The largest economy in the EuroZone is often seen as a bellwether for the rest of the shared economy. This is particularly relevant around the inflation figure if it is rising, since as a rule, Germany tends to have more fiscal discipline. If German inflation is rising, chances are that inflation in the rest of Europe is rising even faster. If prices were to get under control, most likely that would be seen in Germany first. German CPI change for August is expected to show an annual rate of 7.8%, higher than the 7.5% reported in July. Germany has a more regulated energy sector, and is less likely to see the benefits from lower fuel prices that helped reduce inflation in the US during the same period. At the same time, German regulators also allowed for energy companies to pass on more of the cost to consumers. Where there could be good news is that monthly inflation is expected to slow to 0.4% compared to 0.9% in the prior month. What's driving the market Wednesday could be a pretty lively day for the markets, because we get CPI data and PMI figures through the course of the day. We'll get into more detail on the PMI numbers tomorrow. For now, inflation is likely to have the bigger impact on the EURUSD as it is driving the main divergence between the currencies of the two largest economies. Last month, EU inflation already surpassed inflation in the US. Meanwhile, the interest rate gap between the two economies continues to grow, as the Fed has been more aggressive in taming inflation. That means real yields in the US have been increasing, while real yields in the Euro have been decreasing. The fluctuations in inflation are bigger than the interest rate policy moves, meaning that inflation is driving the yield spread. Which, in turn, drives the relative price dynamics of the EURUSD. As long as real rates are weakening in the Euro, the pair is likely to be under pressure, and find it hard to get back above parity. The data to pay attention to The EuroZone is expected to report a modest increase in CPI change to 9.0% from 8.9% prior. The core rate is expected to rise by a similar measure to 4.1% from 4.0%, double the target rate. To make matters more difficult for the ECB, the monthly inflation rate is expected to accelerate to 0.6% from 0.1% prior. Inflation rising faster on the monthly basis, and the change being seen in the core numbers, implies a more structural problem. The market already expects the ECB to raise rates, so higher inflation likely won't be all that much of a surprise. But if CPI change were below expectations, then it could have some monetary policy implications.
The ECB Has No Other Options But To Keep Tightening The Monetary Policy

Eurozone: What Could Help Wages To Grow? Unemployment Decreased To 6.6%

ING Economics ING Economics 01.09.2022 11:44
The eurozone labour market remains historically tight despite a rapidly slowing economy. While the strong labour market increases the risk of rapid wage growth fueling inflation further, there is no evidence of that so far Eurozone unemployment is at a historically low rate, but a recession could change that   Unemployment fell from 6.7 to 6.6% in July, continuing the steady trend of declining unemployment. The rate is currently well below the natural rate of unemployment, which suggests upward pressure on wages. At the same time though, there is little evidence of this happening so far. Negotiated wage growth – most Europeans see wages adjusted by collective bargaining agreements – grew at an annual rate of 2.1% in 2Q, which is still well below what is to be expected given labour shortages and high inflation. The labour market is at an interesting crossroads at the moment. Employment expectations from businesses are dropping moderately and the economy is moving towards recession at the moment. Given the tight labour markets in most eurozone economies, the expectation is that some degree of labour hoarding will take place to ensure adequate staffing once the economy recovers. Where wages are headed is uncertain in these times. We do expect the tight labour market and high inflation rate to result in further rises in wage growth. A recession will dampen the prospects for increases but is unlikely to nullify them all together. Still, signs of a wage-price spiral remain absent. If a recession indeed materializes, expect an unemployment rate slightly creeping up from current historically low levels. Read this article on THINK TagsGDP Eurozone Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Wow! Federal Reserve decision is not everything next week! What's ahead? InstaForex talks many economic events (Monday) - 30/10/22

ING Economics Team Expects Fed And ECB To Change Their Strategy A Bit As Recession Could Be More Acute Than Forecasted

ING Economics ING Economics 04.09.2022 10:43
Different shades of recession are spreading across the globe at record speed as soaring inflation, geopolitical tensions, and astronomical gas prices show no signs of abating. As central banks grapple with working out how to balance inflation and growth, there's one thing we're sure of: tough times lie ahead In this article A return to reality for Europe The colours of recession Out with the old, in with the new Looking ahead Recession’s coat of many colours ING's Carsten Brzeski on the different shades of recession spreading across the globe.   A return to reality for Europe Returning from the summer break always helps when looking at the bright side of the world's economic prospects. An often heard truism is that relaxed economists make fewer pessimistic forecasts. But when you're tracking the European and, specifically, German economies, no summer break is long enough to make short-term economic forecasts more optimistic. On the contrary, returning to Europe’s economic reality after the summer means returning to a recessionary environment, as gas prices are moving from one astronomic high to the other and will lead to unprecedentedly high energy bills over the winter. Even without a complete stop to Russian gas, high energy and food prices will weigh heavily on consumers and industry, making a technical recession – at least – inevitable. The colours of recession No two recessions, however, are the same. In fact, we are currently seeing different colours of recession across the world. The US economy has actually been in a technical recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth – but it feels nowhere close to a recession. Our chief international economist in New York, James Knightley, says weaker global growth, the strong dollar and the slowdown in the housing market on the back of higher interest rates, will make it feel like a ‘real’ recession at the turn of the year, however. In other regions of the world, we are not currently seeing fully-fledged recessions, but given that China and emerging markets need higher growth rates than the Western hemisphere, the expected sub-potential growth rates can easily feel recessionary. As a consequence, even if Europe currently remains the epicentre of geopolitical tensions, it almost looks as if recession and recessionary trends are a new export item. Out with the old, in with the new With different shades of recession spreading across the global economy, but inflation still stubbornly high as a result of post-pandemic mismatches of demand and supply as well as energy price shocks, the dilemma for major central banks is worsening: how to balance inflation and growth. In the past, the answer would have been clear: most central banks would have shifted towards an easing bias. Not this time around. We are currently witnessing a paradigm shift, recently illustrated at the Jackson Hole conference. A paradigm shift that is characterised by central banks trying to break inflation, accepting the potential costs of pushing economies further into recession. This is similar to what we had in the early 1980s. Back then, higher inflation was also mainly a supply-side phenomenon but eventually led to price-wage spirals and central banks had to hike policy rates to double-digit levels in order to bring inflation down. With the current paradigm shift, central banks are trying to get ahead of the curve. At least ahead of the curve of the 1970s and 1980s. Whether the paradigm shift of central bankers is the right one or simply too much of a good thing is a different question. What strikes me is that central bankers have implicitly moved away from measuring the impact of their policies by medium-term variables and expectations towards measuring it by current and actual inflation outcomes. This could definitely lead to some overshooting of policy rates and post-policy mistakes. Looking ahead We still think that the paradigm shift will not last that long and looming recessions will bring new pivots, forcing the Fed to stop hiking rates at the end of the year and eventually cutting rates again in 2023, and stopping the ECB from engaging in a longer series of rate hikes. Reasons for this out-of-consensus view are that we expect a more severe recession than the Fed and ECB do, and a faster drop in US inflation, in particular, than the Fed expects. Also, in a recession, any neutral interest rate is lower than in a strong growth environment. Finally (and a bit meanly), central banks have not had a good track record with their inflation predictions over the past few years. In any case, we are back from the summer break and looking ahead to a very exciting autumn. Enjoy reading and stay tuned. TagsMonthly Update   Source: ING Monthly: Recession’s coat of many colours | Article | ING Think   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The Markets Still Hope That The Fed May Consider Softer Decision

Would Euro Receive A Tank With Rocket Propeller? What Does ING Economics Expect?

ING Economics ING Economics 05.09.2022 09:12
No more gradual and small steps. The only question for next week’s European Central Bank meeting is whether it will be a 50 or 75 basis point hike   The ECB is another example of a central bank which has been completely overwhelmed by inflation dynamics and a paradigm shift of major central bankers. Remember that it is not too long ago that the ECB ruled out the possibility of even a small rate hike in 2022. Then, there was the gradual and measured approach for rate hikes which was replaced by a surprise 50bp rate hike in July. Now we are at the so-called meeting-by-meeting (MBM and not MiB) approach. This is an approach which clearly makes more sense and should have been introduced much earlier as it would have prevented the ECB from making the described communication mistakes. The MBM approach, however, is also an approach which opens the door widely for speculation and volatility as it makes it harder to read the ECB’s reaction function. Paradigm shift and in search of the ECB's reaction function And exactly this reaction function has changed. It follows a paradigm shift of many central banks as recently witnessed at the Jackson Hole symposium. A paradigm shift that is characterised by central banks trying to break inflation, accepting the potential costs of pushing economies further into recession. This is similar to what we had in the early 1980s. Back then, higher inflation was also mainly a supply-side phenomenon but eventually led to price-wage spirals and central banks had to hike policy rates to double-digit levels in order to bring inflation down. With the current paradigm shift, central banks are trying to get ahead of the curve – at least ahead of the curve of the 1970s and 1980s. Whether the paradigm shift of central bankers is the right one or simply too much of a good thing is a different question. What is striking is the fact that central bankers have implicitly moved away from measuring the impact of their policies by medium-term variables and expectations towards measuring it by current and actual inflation outcomes. This could definitely lead to some overshooting of policy rates and post-policy mistakes. With headline inflation at a new record high... many ECB officials have sounded the alarm bells Back to the ECB. With headline inflation at a new record high and continued passing through of high wholesale energy prices to consumers and corporates in the coming months, many ECB officials have sounded the alarm bells. At Jackson Hole, Isabel Schnabel gave a very hawkish speech, calling for aggressive hiking of interest rates in order to prevent inflation expectations from de-anchoring or a price-wage spiral from kicking in. ‘Caution’, Schnabel said, was the wrong medicine to deal with the current supply shocks. Instead, she called for a ‘forceful’ response even at the risk of lower growth and higher unemployment. Other ECB members followed, calling for a 75bp rate hike next week. Some explicitly argued to bring the policy rate above its neutral level. Only ECB chief economist Philip Lane took a slightly different stance, calling for a gradual approach. Intention of aggressive rate hikes – but will it help? We still find it hard to see how aggressive rate hikes can bring headline inflation down in the eurozone. The economy is far from overheating and will almost inevitably fall into a winter recession, even without further rate hikes. In such a situation, gradual normalisation of monetary policy makes sense, trying to break a supply-side inflation with rate hikes, however, indeed resembles this idea of ‘if you only have a hammer, everything has to be treated as if it was a nail’. Admittedly, the situation is difficult for the ECB: demonstrating its determination to bring down inflation would easily be interpreted as panic. To further identify the ECB’s reaction function, we will have a close eye on the newest staff projections, which will also be released next week. Two things will be of importance: how negative or positive will the ECB be on the eurozone’s growth outlook for the winter and what are the inflation projections for 2024. Remember that in June, the ECB still expected GDP growth to come in at 2.1%, which is far away from our own forecast of -0.6%. As regards 2024 inflation, the June projections had annual inflation at 2.1%. The more downward revisions we will get on both projections, the less likely the suggested aggressive rate hikes will be. Hiking into a recession is not the same as hiking throughout a recession In any case, and even if the ECB doves have been very silent in recent weeks, we expect the ECB to ‘only’ hike by 50bp next week. This would be a compromise, keeping the door open for further rate hikes. 75bp look one bridge too far for the doves but cannot entirely be excluded. Further down the road, we can see the ECB hiking another time at the October meeting but have difficulties seeing the ECB continue hiking when the eurozone economy is hit by a winter recession. Hiking into a recession is one thing, hiking throughout a recession is another thing. Read this article on THINK TagsMonetary policy Inflation GDP Eurozone ECB Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Short-term analysis - Euro to US dollar by InstaForex - 31/10/22

Eurozone: Retail Sales Rose Because Of Increased Food And Fuel Consumption

ING Economics ING Economics 05.09.2022 14:30
The small increase in retail sales at the start of the third quarter brings little optimism about the outlook. Increased food and fuel spending masked a decline in sales for all other items. Expect consumption to decline from here on due to the purchasing power squeeze that the eurozone is going through Eurozone retail sales in July Retail sales increased by 0.3% in July, which is small enough for this uptick to be in line with the downward trend seen in recent months. The peak in retail sales was in November and sales in July were about 2.5% below that level. Food and fuel caused the small increase in July as all other items saw a decline of -0.4% in terms of sales volumes. A strong increase in Germany and the Netherlands masked declines in the other large eurozone markets. Don’t expect this to be the start of a sustained upturn in sales. The outlook remains rather bleak for the months ahead as real incomes go through an unprecedented squeeze due to high inflation and lagging wages. We expect consumption to contract for the coming quarters on the back of this. For the European Central Bank though, it is definitely no smoking gun for the start of a contraction. With the September meeting coming up and October of course not long after, the doves are looking for clear evidence that the economy is moving into contraction territory. Today’s data will, in that sense, not be of much help. Still, evidence of a recessionary environment is likely to become more apparent as new data comes in. Read this article on THINK TagsInflation GDP Eurozone ECB Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Eurozone's GDP Is Forecasted To Hit 2.1% For 2022, Inflation Expectations May Be Corrected

Eurozone's GDP Is Forecasted To Hit 2.1% For 2022, Inflation Expectations May Be Corrected

Jing Ren Jing Ren 06.09.2022 15:01
We can expect quite a bit of volatility on Thursday, when the ECB will make its rate decision. Surveyed economists are almost evenly split on whether there will be a 50bps or a 75bps hike. The market has priced in around 68bps, implying a favoritism towards the tighter policy. However, it's still possible to get a bounce in the currency, since the move isn't fully priced in. Though part of the expectations could be influenced by an unusually large amount of debt issuance by Eurozone countries this week. Italy, Austria and Germany are all issuing bonds before the ECB meeting, which could put upward pressure on yields, and obscure how the market is really feeling about what will happen with the rate decision. Putting the pieces together There are good fundamental arguments for both positions, as might be expected. On the one hand, EU inflation is likely to keep rising after Russia cut off supply of gas through Nord Stream 1. Tighter policy might be justified in an attempt to prevent higher energy costs from spreading through the economy. On the other hand, that very possibility of higher energy costs could justify keeping rates on hold. Higher energy costs would contribute to a recession, thus lower prices, and less need for the ECB to take as aggressive attitude. However, the reality is inflation isn't on the "supply side" (that is, because of increased funds) as much as it is due to factors outside the ECB's control. The ECB doesn't control the price of energy, nor the flow of gas from Russia, nor the shutdown of factories because of higher energy and transportation costs. The ECB has one tool, and just because it might not be the most appropriate for the situation, it doesn't mean they won't use it, anyway. The market reaction There is wide expectation that the Fed will also hike rates by 75bps. Meaning that if the ECB goes for only 50bps, the gap between the Euro and the dollar will once again widen. That would put downward pressure on the EURUSD. On the other hand, a 75bps hike would simply maintain the gap, which could help the EURUSD, but would have less buoyancy. The other factor to keep in mind is that ECB staff projections are announced at the same time. This could have a bigger impact on the currency, since forward expectations of rate hikes weigh more on institutional investors. Lately, there have been several ECB members emphasizing that they will push for tighter policy. Some have gone so far as to suggest that rates could go above the "neutral rate" in order to tamp down inflation. That would imply at least another 175bps of hikes over the next four meetings. The future is what matters Those aggressive stances might be tempered if the staff forecasts cut the outlook for the shared economy's growth for this year and next. The last projections showed that the bank expected 2.1% growth for this year, and is likely to be revised downward. Inflation was also projected to be at 2% for next year, something that is likely to be revised upwards.
Inflation Rising Again In The Eurozone, Positive GDP In The Great Britain

Euro Is Awaiting Thursday! Is There Any Chance For ECB (European Central Bank) To Change Its Stance?

ING Economics ING Economics 07.09.2022 11:14
Thursday’s ECB rate decision is apparently on a knife edge. This should also tell you that there is a very broad range of possible hike outcomes by year end, do not dismiss anything. The upshot is higher front-end rates volatility, especially with the explosion in swap spreads and collateral shortage ECB doves out in force, but enough to force a 50bp hike? Despite the ECB’s pre-meeting quiet period being in full force, it seems doves have mounted a last minute, and coordinated, push to a more gradual approach to policy normalisation. Fabio Centeno, Yannis Stournaras, and to a lesser extent Martins Kazaks and Edward Scicluna, seem to push back against the barrage of hawkish comments that have coloured ECB communication in the past few weeks. The disagreement on the face of it does not seem insurmountable, but they highlight that whatever policy decision is taken tomorrow, a 75bp hike is not yet set in stone. A 75bp hike is not yet set in stone The main takeaway from our four doves (for the purpose of these comments at least) was that they did highlight the policy trade-off between fighting inflation and safeguarding growth, something the hawks, and other central banks such as the Fed, have been at pains to dismiss. Ultimately ECB forward guidance, for it hasn’t abandoned the idea of steering market expectations despite what it says, should be taken with a pinch of salt by markets. In addition to a wide range of opinions today, the range of possible economic outcomes into this winter should in turn convince markets that it is very difficult to predict ECB policy even a few meetings into the future. 2Y implied EUR rates volatility has overtaken 10Y Source: Refinitiv, ING Don't get wedded to any specific ECB outcome, and expect more volatility The implications are twofold. First, even out-of-consensus calls like our own for only another 75bp of hikes this year, are far from impossible if the economy takes a turn for the worse between this meeting and the next. On the other hand, more hikes than the roughly 150bp priced for this year, let alone next, are definitely possible, especially if governments expand support measures for energy consumers. The second implication is that rates volatility at the short-end is definitely warranted, more so than for longer maturities which should rely mostly on much slower-moving estimates for long-term equilibrium interest rates. Rates volatility at the short-end is definitely warranted, more so than for longer maturities On the topic of front-end volatility, the explosion in swap spreads is gaining more attention in rates markets. The 0% rate cap on government deposits at the ECB (or at national central banks) means some national treasuries have suspended their repo operations as they will soon get a much worse rate on their deposits than the interest rates they are paying on repos. Similarly, we expect national and sub-national treasuries to prefer parking their excess cash into short-term securities rather than earning nothing by placing it at their domestic central banks. Both effects are worsening the collateral shortage, and widening swap spreads. The collateral shortage is widening the gap between bond yields and swap rates Source: Refinitiv, ING US 10yr continues to journey towards 3.5% The rise in US market rates and the pressure it places on wider core rates continues. The US economy is clearly refusing to lie down, with yesterday's ISM number a reminder of this. The structure of the curve has moved from being a bullish one for bonds to quite a neutral one (positioning of the 5yr to the curve). But it has not quite switched to outright bearish positioning. This continues to imply that a rise in the 10yr back towards the high hit at 3.5% in June remains on the cards, but not necessarily a big rise beyond that (so far). The US economy is clearly refusing to lie down The 2yr is already there (at 3.5%), and the market has 3.75% to 4% as an end game for the Federal Reserve. The risk going forward is that the market decides to edge this even higher. The fact that risk assets are lower will not worry the Fed here. The key thing is whether the system can take it. Based off where banks can print commercial paper as a spread over the risk free rate, the system remains in good shape (as that spread remains exceptionally low). The rising rates environment has more to go, and that also forms the background music as the ECB faces its own key decision on Thursday. Today's events and market view Bank of England governor Bailey and other members will appear in front of the treasury select committee. It is hard to imagine the questions and answers not being heavily interpreted by markets with an eye on next week’s policy meeting. Germany will add to long-end supply this week with a 15Y auction worth €1.5bn. This is the last scheduled euro sovereign bond sale of the week so we expect the long-end to trade better afterwards. Eurozone Q2 unemployment and GDP will feel dated and the economic focus will likely be on US July trade in the afternoon instead. There is a long list of Fed speakers today including Thomas Barkin, Loretta Mester, and Lael Brainard. Read this article on THINK
The ECB Has No Other Options But To Keep Tightening The Monetary Policy

Euro: We Can Expect More Hikes From ECB (European Central Bank) This Year

ING Economics ING Economics 09.09.2022 10:06
The ECB President, Christine Lagarde has confirmed the Bank's hawkish stance and has prepared markets for more hikes to come. We still think the European Central Bank is too optimistic about growth but have changed our call; we now expect it to hike rates by another 75bp before the end of the year ECB President, Christine Lagarde, at Thursday's news conference ECB Is Determined The ECB news conference just confirmed the message that was already clear from the policy decisions: the European Central Bank is fully determined to hike interest rates aggressively. Earlier, it announced a 75 basis point rate rise, the largest hike since the start of monetary union. It's given up on inflation targeting and its main aim now seems to be restoring its inflation-fighting credibility. It is still hard to see how the ECB can bring down inflation that is mainly driven by supply side factors, other than 'hoping' for a recession that suppresses demand. During the press conference, President Christine Lagarde said the ECB still intends to hike interest rates several times in the coming months but didn’t say where it sees the level of the neutral interest rate. We still think the ECB is too optimistic about the economic outlook We still think it's being too optimistic about the economic outlook. The ECB’s baseline scenario is +0.9% GDP growth in 2023 which is much more optimistic than our own forecast. Only in its downside risk scenario do we see GDP growth coming in at -0.9% but this scenario assumes a full end to Russia's rationing of oil and gas in the eurozone. Interestingly, in its baseline scenario, the ECB expects inflation to still come down to 2.3% in 2024 and actually to reach 2.2% from the second quarter of 2024. Admittedly, there is currently very little belief among ECB members in the reliability of these long-term projections. However, the very hawkish tone today doesn’t really match these inflation projections. Taking today’s decision and Lagarde’s comments at the news conference at face value, we have to change our ECB call. For the time being, there are no more doves. The Bank is clearly determined to bring interest rates to their neutral level, and this level is clearly at the upper end of the common range of between 1% and 2%. If it were up to the hawks, they would probably like to hike by another 100bp before next spring. However, we think that at some point in the coming months, the ECB will have to acknowledge that its growth expectations are too positive. In our view, the ECB will only be able to hike rates by a total of 75bp by the end of the year. This could be another 75bp at the October meeting or 50bp in October and a last-minute 25bp hike at the December meeting. For now, the doves have clearly left the ECB nest. However, we don’t think that they have left that nest for good and they will be back, somewhat earlier than the migrating birds which return to Europe after the winter. Read this article on THINK TagsMonetary policy Inflation Eurozone ECB Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The ECB President Christine Lagarde's Speech Could Bring Back Risk Appetite

Could The Situation On Energy Market Make Rates Go Down?

ING Economics ING Economics 13.09.2022 15:22
Falling energy prices are a key downside risk to European rates. Hawkish central banks and fiscal policy mean a further jump in yields is possible, but this may bring forward the bond rally we expected for late 2022/early 2023 Eye-popping volatility in energy markets is making short-dated rates and bonds even more difficult to trade The plunge in traded energy prices continues The European Union’s proposed energy market reforms and consumption curbs managed to draw a line under the continued climb in both traded gas and electricity prices. The impact has been nothing short of spectacular, especially as it occurred in the midst of a gas supply worst-case scenario, a total cut-off of the Nord Stream flow. We’ve highlighted recently that a continued fall in energy prices constitutes a key downside risk to European rates, in EUR and GBP. That downside is growing. From the point of view of rates markets, the (tentative) reaction has been as close as one would expect from energy policy goldilocks: not too effective economically that it provides cover for central banks to hike further, but effective enough that it does allow energy prices to drop. Of course, between the two effects, the drop in energy prices may well be the one that impacts rates the most, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. Central banks are now overtly worried about second-round effects, a de-anchoring of inflation expectations, and a broadening of inflation – all of which could justify a continued hawkish tone. Short EUR rates haven't yet reacted to lower gas prices Source: Refinitiv, ING Bonds remain shaky but the next rally may occur earlier than 2023 The main takeaway from last week’s European Central Bank meeting for EUR rates markets is an updated, more hawkish, ECB reaction function. The ECB seemed to have taken, indeed ripped, more than a few pages out of the Fed’s book. The upshot is that markets should, and have to a large extent already, concluded that euro for euro, the central bank will deliver more monetary tightening if energy prices rise further. We’ll leave it to our economics colleagues to discuss whether this is the right approach going into a recession but we share their scepticism.  The upshot is that a jump in energy prices has so far impacted rates to the upside, but not to the downside. Nothing is set in stone and the further they drop, the more likely they are to take rates with them. For now, we stick to our view, also motivated by the strength of the US economy, that upside risk dominates for bonds. This is particularly true in an environment of fragile investor sentiment and rising supply, as is customary in September and October. If confirmed, however, the milder inflation picture would precipitate the rally in government bonds we expect for late 2022/early 2023, through 1% in the case of 10Y Bunds. Falling inflation expectations are another challenge to the Fed's hawkish stance Source: New York Fed, ING Today's events and market view Today’s eurozone CPI are final readings of the August prints, and so are less liable to surprise, but the forward-looking Zew components should be a good indicator of market sentiment. It’ll be interesting if the drop in traded energy prices and various measures taken to shield customers register in the market mood. Judging from the improvement in risk assets this month, we would say they have. The main fireworks will come from the US, however, with the August CPI report. Consensus, and our own view, is for a drop in headline inflation, but a rebound in core. How markets react to these mixed messages is an important question for rates over the coming weeks and months. The Fed has pushed aggressively against any dovish interpretation of one CPI report in July so a drop in rates and re-steepening of the curve would be notable. The drop in consumer inflation expectations published by the New York Fed yesterday was another challenge to its hawkish stance. The National Federation of Independent Business small business optimism completes the list of releases. Primary market activity will take the form of 3Y/7Y/24Y auctions in Italy, a 2Y debt sale in Germany, and of dual-tranche 5Y/30Y European Union syndication which could raise upwards of €10bn. In the US session, a 30Y T-bond auction is a highlight. Note that 3Y and 10Y auctions already took place yesterday, meaning a lot of supply pressure has already been felt in USD markets, however demand was soft.  Read this article on THINK TagsRates Daily Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Euro to US dollar - Ichimoku cloud analysis - 21/11/22

What Do We Learn From European Central Bank's Philip Lane's Rhetoric?

ING Economics ING Economics 15.09.2022 12:37
Into next week’s Fed meeting, bond markets will take heart from a slowdown in supply. It seems there are only hawks left at the European Central Bank, and collateral scarcity is here to stay Markets left to their own bearish devices, but supply abates With US inflation reports out of the way, and little by way of events until then, focus is turning to next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Hard data from the US, in the form of August retail sales and industrial production, are the exception. They could dispel the impression that the US economy is going from strength to strength if, as expected, they show a slowdown from July. Our economics team expects a strong 3Q, however, which should in turn be of little help for bond markets trading mostly on macro drivers. Thankfully, technicals might lend a helping hand. The end of this week’s supply slate should help bonds regain their poise after a bruising week. We may have seen this at play already with the long-end bond rally late in yesterday’s session. Today sees auctions from Spain and France but they are mostly short duration, hence adding to the flattening theme. Bonds should take a breather before next week's FOMC meeting Source: Refinitiv, ING Lane joins the hawks, and collateral scarcity remains unaddressed In Euroland, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane seemingly endorsing the hawks’ narrative in a speech is another clue that the central bank has experienced a significant shift in its reaction function. This is no guarantee of ever-increasing interest rates, but this means that the hawkish skew in the market reaction to future economic releases should be stronger than in the past months. Realistically, we won't get much evidence of that before the European PMI releases at the back end of next week. Until then, EUR markets will be at the mercy of moves in their USD and GBP peers. Lane’s speech was also a reminder that collateral scarcity issues will remain despite the ECB offering a delay to governments in finding alternative avenues to place their liquidity. Until April 2023, they will continue to earn the euro short-term rate on their deposits at the central bank, which at least delays the time when more demand emerges for already scarce collateral. What the ECB has not addressed, however, is the initial collateral shortage, which Lane blamed in part on interest rate uncertainty and rates volatility. Rates volatility has boosted demand for already scarce collateral Source: Refinitiv, ING Today's events and market view Spain and France conclude this week’s supply slate with auctions in the 3Y/5Y/8Y and 5Y/6Y/7Y sectors. Their short duration should add to the cuve-flattening theme. The Bank of England inflation expectations survey is likely to gather some attention one week ahead of its policy meeting, and as inflation fever grips markets. Other European data, eurozone trade and final French August inflation appear less market-moving to us. Luis De Guindos and Fabio Centeno of the ECB are on the speakers list. This is just as well because there is a full schedule in the US. Jobless claims are expected to edge up, while Empire manufacturing and Philly Fed indices should offer an early peek into business sentiment in September. Retail sales and industrial production are expected to slow down in August. Read this article on THINK TagsRates Daily Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The GBP/USD Pair Did Not Reach The Nearest Target Level Of 1.2259

It's Going To Be A Thrilling Week For Euro, Dollar And British Pound (GBP)! Bank Of England And Fed Decide On Interest Rates!

ING Economics ING Economics 16.09.2022 11:54
The prospect of lower near-term inflation takes some of the pressure off the Bank of England to move even more aggressively on Thursday. We expect a second consecutive 50 basis point rate hike, although it's a close call between that and a 75bp move Our Bank of England call We narrowly favour a 50bp hike on Thursday, taking the Bank Rate to 2.25%, although 75bp is clearly on the table and we would expect at least a couple of policymakers to vote for it. It's even possible we get a rare three-way vote – the first since 2008 – if dovish committee member Silvana Tenreyro votes for a 25bp hike as she did in August. If our call is correct, then we expect another 50bp move in November and at least another 25bp in December. That would take Bank Rate to the 3% area. It's a tough meeting to call... Next week’s Bank of England meeting is crucial. It will tell us not only how worried policymakers are about the slide in sterling and other UK markets, but also how the government’s decision to cap household/business energy prices will translate into monetary policy. It has also, undeniably, become a close meeting to call. Hawks at the Bank of England will undoubtedly be concerned about the independent sterling weakness we've seen recently (down 4% in trade-weighted terms), even if in practice it’s unlikely to make a huge difference to the big-picture inflation outlook. Both the Fed and ECB will have also done (at least) 75bp hikes by Thursday, and markets are increasingly concluding the BoE will do the same. But we’d caution against assuming UK policymakers will ramp up the pace of rate hikes simply because that’s what everyone else is doing – or indeed because that’s what markets are pricing. As recently as June, the BoE hiked by ‘only’ 25bp, despite the Fed having done 75bp the night before, and defying market expectations for more. Indeed, there are good reasons to think the Bank will ‘stick to its guns’ and simply repeat the 50bp hike it executed in August. Government energy price guarantee means inflation unlikely to go much higher Source: Macrobond, ING forecasts   One immediate consequence of the government’s decision to cap household electricity/gas bills this winter is that headline inflation should be dramatically lower. We now expect CPI to peak at 11% in October, only slightly above where it is now, compared to 16% in January had the government not intervened. It also means headline inflation should be back around the BoE’s 2% target at the end of next year, crazy as that sounds. All of that should help keep consumer inflation expectations in check, and in fact, we’ve already seen a noticeable pullback in long-term price expectations according to the latest BoE survey. Admittedly there appears to be a wide range of views at the BoE about how much all of this actually matters. But we know from recent comments, notably from hawk Catherine Mann, that some policymakers have had a keen eye on consumer expectations over recent months. By the BoE's own measure, consumer inflation expectations have dipped Source: Macrobond   The flip side, of course, is that extra government support potentially means higher medium-term inflation, even if headline rates are lower in the very near term. We think this is ultimately what most committee members will be more interested in. The hit to GDP this winter is likely to be more moderate than the 2% cumulative decline the BoE forecast in August, while the sharp rise in unemployment it projected is less likely to materialise too. With worker shortages proving to be a long-running issue in the jobs market, the risk is that higher wage growth could become a persistent feature that requires more central bank tightening. That doesn't necessarily have to manifest itself as a radically higher policy rate, and we still believe investors are overestimating the tightening to come. The swaps market is pricing a terminal rate in the region of 4.5% next year. Hiking by 75bp risks adding even more fuel to the fire, something we suspect the committee will be wary of doing, even if there are advantages in front-loading hikes. But even if the Bank doesn’t hike as far as markets expect, we do think the arrival of government stimulus means the BoE won’t be racing towards rate cuts next year, unlike some of its developed market counterparts. Gilts, looking for some clarity Gilts are looking for a much-needed reduction in uncertainty next week. Clearly, a 50bp hike would be a dovish surprise and help reverse some of the front-end’s weakness but even in the case of a 75bp move, the BoE clarifying its reaction function with regards to the energy package would be helpful. Fiscal and monetary policy competing with each other is an unnerving thought for bondholders. The Treasury’s fiscal event next week should also help answer any lingering questions about the size and financing of the energy support measures. Gilts should widen to 200bp against Bund on a generous fiscal package Source: Refinitiv, ING   Even if the gilt ‘fear factor’ eases next week, it doesn’t answer the key question: who will buy all these gilts? A deficit-financed energy package will add to supply and to the BoE reducing the size of its portfolio. Private investors will have to make up the shortfall. This is not impossible but they will likely be some reluctance initially given the amount of new debt released into the market. The BoE’s plan to start outright sales of gilts, albeit in small amounts initially, is an additional source of concern. On Thursday, the Bank is expected to vote in favour of starting this process, despite concerns about stress in the UK bond market. Divergence in the size and financing of energy packages in the UK and the eurozone means the spread between 10Y gilts and bund should widen to 200bp. Read this article on THINK TagsUK fiscal policy Inflation Central banks Bank of England Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The ECB President Christine Lagarde's Speech Could Bring Back Risk Appetite

"Fed Listens" Takes Place Today! In Europe, Eurozone PMIs Are Released And ECB's, Bundesbank's And SNB's Members Are Set To Speak

ING Economics ING Economics 23.09.2022 11:14
Rates push higher and curves flatten as the hawkish message from the latest central bank meetings sinks in. The decisions have also highlighted policy transmission issues that have to be overcome as negtiave rates are left behind. Today's eurozone PMIs underscore the growing economic pain the ECB is willing to tolerate, as it focuses on inflation  Gilts lead the sell off, caught between BoE and fiscal measures As the hawkish message of this week’s raft of central bank meetings sinks in, rates markets remain under pressure with front to intermediate rates underperforming initially. The German 2Y 10Y curve came close to inversion, re-steepened only as 10Y Bund yield pushed towards 2%. Yet it was Gilts that led the sell-off. At first sight, it was surprising as the Bank of England underwhelmed market expectations with a smaller than expected 50bp hike, but the Bank later added that the impact of the government’s fiscal package would only be considered at the next meeting. With the promise to act forcefully if necessary that leaves the door open to substantial increases further down the road – 75bp not excluded with three Monetary Policy Committee votes in favour already this time around. It gets uncomfortable for Gilts amid quantitative tightening and fiscal spending  However, it is also the Gilt supply dynamics weighing heavily. The BoE announced yesterday its plans to kick off active sales of its bond holdings in October. This would amount to the portfolio shrinking by £80bn over the next 12 months, half of that sales, the other half passive roll off. Those numbers were not entirely unexpected, but amid current market conditions and given that the government's energy-related spending plans could create unpredictable upside risks for Gilts issuance, this puts private Gilt investors in an uncomfortable position. We would not exclude 10Y Gilt yields at 4% soon. Fiscal measures and QT add up to a daunting amount of Gilt supply Source: Refinitiv, ING Transmission and cost issues as rates are hiked A more technical aspect faced by central banks as policy rates are lifted from zero or below into positive territory was highlighted by the Swiss National Bank yesterday. It hiked the key rate by 75bp to 0.5%. But to ensure that the market rate actually follows the policy rate higher, it introduced what essentially boils down to a reverse tiering system. Sight deposits are now remunerated at the key rate up to a multiple of individual banks’ reserve requirements, and anything above does not earn interest. Crucially, that will compel banks to participate in the SNB’s repo and bills issues have been introduced alongside to mop up this remaining excess liquidity, ensuring that the overnight rate actually trades at the policy rate. Rate hikes are not properly transmitted into all corners of the money market The European Central Bank has also faced the problem that its rate hikes are not properly transmitted into all corners of the money market. Collateral scarcity is affecting core rates with Germany’s 3m treasury bills still trading some 40bp below ESTR OIS (euro short-term rate overnight indexed swap) for instance. The ECB has prevented at least a worsening of the situation by remunerating the vast government cash holdings at national central banks that would have otherwise pushed into the tight market for collateral. But it is only a temporary fix and the ECB may eye other central banks’ approaches, in this case, the SNB's issuance of central bank bills – which is essentially converting excess liquidity into collateral. It does not address the issue of the ECB being left with rising interest costs as it has started to remunerate banks’ excess liquidity holdings.     Collateral scarcity means higher ECB rates don't transmit fully to German bonds and bills Source: Refinitiv, ING Today's events and market view The eurozone PMIs are expected to drop further below the 50 threshold as high energy prices bite and force manufacturing production cuts. Yet ECB officials have already started to prepare markets for upcoming pain, signalling their intent to remain focused on inflation and hike rates despite an economic downturn. This had boosted the flattening dynamic of yield curves, and while yesterday it was already close, the Bund curve should eventually follow the OIS and swap curves into inversion.   Gilts markets will focus on today's fiscal event and what it will mean for issuance. At least equally important will be the implications for the upcoming BoE policy decisions, with the Bank having already warned that the government's energy package will increase medium-term inflation pressure. Elsewhere, we will follow comments from the ECB's Martins Kazaks as well as Bundesbank's Joachim Nagel alongside the SNB's Thomas Jordan. Later in the day, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will open a "Fed Listens" event with Vice Chair Lael Brainard and the Fed's Michelle Bowman. Read this article on THINK TagsRates Daily Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The EUR/USD Pair Is Showing A Potential For Bearish Drop

Europe: Eurozone PMI Declined. Is Recession Here? | Euro: Next ECB Move Could Be A 75bp Hike

ING Economics ING Economics 23.09.2022 14:35
The third decline in a row for the eurozone PMI indicates that business activity has been contracting throughout the quarter. This confirms our view that a recession could have already started. At the same time, the August increase in energy prices is translating into stronger price pressures Shoppers in Lubeck, Germany German Composite PMI Reached 45.9 The third quarter clearly marks a turning point in the eurozone economy. After a strong rebound from contractions caused by the pandemic, the economy is now becoming more severely affected by high inflation both at the consumer and producer level. Led by Germany, which saw its composite PMI drop to 45.9 in September, the eurozone saw its composite PMI fall to 48.2. Both services and manufacturing output are well below 50 at 48.9 and 46.2, respectively, signalling broad-based contracting business activity. Read next:  The manufacturing sector is bearing the brunt of the problems. Supply chain problems still disturb production, but weaker global demand has caused backlogs of work to fall as new orders are decreasing quickly. Incidental production stoppages due to high energy costs are also adding to declining production in the sector. But with the tourism season behind us, there are few opportunities left for any marked catch-up effects in the eurozone economy. That has pushed the services PMI deeper into negative territory as consumers are starting to become more cautious in spending as energy bills rise across the monetary union. Overall, the view of a eurozone economy moving into recession seems confirmed by the gloomy September PMI survey. European Central Bank May Hike The Rate By 75bp The surge in gas and electricity prices in August is now leading to further price pressures emerging for businesses in September, even though other costs have been moderating due to weakening global demand. This confirms the stagflationary environment that the eurozone is currently in. The ECB has made clear that it will continue to hike in a determined manner for the short-run, as it tries to battle stubbornly high inflation. A 75 basis point hike in October is therefore definitely on the table, despite a weakening economy. Read this article on THINK TagsInflation GDP Eurozone ECB Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The UK Markets Remain Volatile, Possible Contraction Of The Eurozone Economy

GBP/USD Is Expected To Trade Between 1.07 And 1.09 Today. Could British Pound Touch 1.0350 In Next Month? Fed And ECB Members Speak Today

ING Economics ING Economics 27.09.2022 11:08
September has proved an exceptional month for the dollar. In the G10 space, the dollar has rallied anywhere from 1% against the Swiss franc to as much as 7% against sterling. Events in the UK highlight the pressure-cooker conditions facing non-USD currencies. Expect a day of consolidation today and a focus on central bank speakers in the US, UK, and Europe USD: An array of Fed speakers today Monday was a wild day in FX markets. Sterling was falling heavily and the dollar was firmer across the board as both bond and, to a much lesser degree, equity markets were under pressure. G7 FX volatility is now back to levels last seen in March 2020. Interestingly EMFX volatility is higher too, but still below the highs of this year. Sterling is clearly making a difference here. The narrative remains the same. Central bankers remain wholly focused on taming inflation – even at the expense of recession. We think last week's economic's projections from the Fed will still take some time to sink into the market's consciousness. The Fed projects that the US unemployment rate will rise to 4.4% by the end of next year from 3.7% today - but will still be raising rates to 4.50/4.75% in the process. Overnight the Fed's Loretta Mester reiterated that a more restrictive policy was needed for longer. Mester was also asked about the strong dollar and understandably replied that the Fed does take it into account when setting policy and also looks at the dollar's impact on financial market volatility. On the latter subject we suspect the 12 October meeting of G20 central bankers and finance ministers will garner more attention than usual – e.g. does the FX language in the Communique get tweaked to express concern over disorderly FX moves? For today's session, the focus will be on Fed speakers and second-tier data. On the roster, we have Evans (0930, 1115CET), Powell (1330) and Bullard (1555). We also have durable goods orders, new home sales, and consumer confidence. Any upside surprise in US consumer confidence only makes matters worse for the rest of the world, in that the Fed will have to tighten harder to bring aggregate demand lower. DXY may hold support at 113.00 since we look to be in a powerful phase of a dollar bull trend. Chris Turner EUR: One way traffic EUR/USD touched a new low for the year near 0.9550. Looking at a EUR/USD chart it has been pretty much one-way traffic since the summer of 2021. Question: what changed then? Answer: The Fed, which shifted from its super-dovish experiment with average inflation targeting to more conventional tightening. Events in Ukraine have only managed to cement the Fed's inflationary concern while hitting Europe's growth prospects. In short, do not expect a turn in EUR/USD until the Fed's work is done – and that doesn't look like it's happening until 1Q23 at the earliest. Separately, European growth prospects remain challenged as clearly demonstrated in some very concerning German IFO data released yesterday.   Expect intra-day EUR/USD rallies to stall in the 0.9700 region again and we doubt much hawkish ECB speak makes much difference here.  Elsewhere, we still like EUR/CHF lower. The dollar is the second-largest weight in the Swiss National Bank's (SNB's) Swiss franc trade-weighted index. A higher USD/CHF means the SNB will tolerate a lower EUR/CHF as it seeks to guide the nominal Swiss franc stronger. 0.93 is the direction of travel for EUR/CHF. Chris Turner  GBP: Buying time for the pound For a major reserve currency, it is typically hard to maintain these high levels of volatility for prolonged periods – but sterling may well try to defy that. We say that because UK policymakers have tried to buy time for the pound by: a) the UK Treasury promising a proper budget assessment on 23 November from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) alongside a medium-term fiscal plan and b) the BoE promising to take all market moves into account when it decides on monetary policy on 3 November. But six-to-nine weeks is a long time in FX markets and on Monday investors were disappointed about the lack of an emergency rate hike from the BoE. We had felt that the BoE would prefer to avoid getting sucked into defending the pound with rate hikes. The delay in a policy response until November, therefore, leaves sterling vulnerable – though we would prefer to describe it as sterling finding the right level such that the Gilt markets clear. We are not sure we are there yet, however. FX markets feel like the dollar is going into early 1980s over-drive territory and barring a stark reversal in hawkish Fed expectations or slowing growth dynamics, we would say Cable could retest 1.0350 over the next month. UK markets will now be hyper-sensitive to any communication from UK policymakers. Today at 13:00CET sees BoE chief economist, Huw Pill, speak on the well-timed subject of 'Economic and Monetary Policy challenges ahead'. We doubt he will offer more than what was in yesterday's BoE statement, but on a day in which the dollar is consolidating, GBP/USD could trace out something like a 1.07-1.09 range. Chris Turner  HUF: Is the hiking cycle coming to a peak? The National Bank of Hungary's (NBH) monetary policy meeting takes place today and we expect another strong 75bp rate hike to 12.50%. Surveys are leaning more towards a 100bp step but market pricing is a bit more complicated. Short-term expectations in the one-month horizon (1x4 FRA) are pricing in just over 150bp, however they do include the October meeting as well. On the other hand, market expectations have cooled in recent weeks and while the terminal rate was still priced in at around 14.50% in early September, at the moment markets are expecting the peak of the hiking cycle to be just over 13.50%. Thus, it should not be a problem for NBH to support hawkish expectations. On the other hand, since the publication of our preview, we have heard several statements from NBH officials that the hiking cycle is coming to an end. From this perspective, this would make our 75bp hike call look hawkish. However, the forint is once again approaching the 410 EUR/HUF level and a dovish surprise would not be good news for the forint. Moreover, markets are increasingly questioning whether Hungary will get an injection of EU money, which Fitch highlighted as a risk to the sovereign rating on Friday, and more headlines should emerge in the coming days. So overall the picture is very mixed and it is hard to find a clear path on what to do next. However, our call for today's NBH decision should mean positive support for the forint. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK TagsFX Daily FX Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Euro to US dollar - Ichimoku cloud analysis - 21/11/22

Macroeconomics: Eurozone Economic Sentiment Went Down! Let's Check How Much

ING Economics ING Economics 29.09.2022 14:26
The drop from 97.3 to 93.7 in the eurozone economic sentiment indicator indicates a likely contraction in the economy in the third quarter. Selling price expectations have been on the rise again, increasing the risk of a longer period of stagflation in the eurozone economy Selling price expectations are increasing again as businesses face higher energy costs Is Recession Already Here, In The Eurozone? The eurozone economy is slowing rapidly as high prices reduce business activity and dampen consumer demand. We expect that a recession could, therefore, have already started. For industry, production expectations dropped sharply in September. Backlogs of work have fallen as new incoming orders disappointed in recent months and in some industries production is reduced as high energy costs impact the profitability of production. With energy costs still at unsustainably high levels for some industrial sectors, this is adding to the bleaker outlook for industrial production. For the services sector, confidence fell even more as the post-pandemic catch-up demand is fading and the purchasing power squeeze is starting to bite. The services indicator dropped from 8.1 to 4.9 as businesses indicate that demand has recently weakened and they are becoming gloomier about demand in the months ahead. Read next: Tim Moe (Goldman Sachs) Comments On USD And Turbulent Times For Markets In General, Ole Hansen (Saxo)Talks Nord Stream | FXMAG.COM  Despite the clear slowing of the economy, selling price expectations are increasing again as businesses face higher energy costs again due to the spike in prices in August. This is particularly worrisome as it could prolong a period of stagflation in the eurozone economy. For the ECB, the path is already quite clear: the central bank is set to hike in the coming meetings regardless of a slowing economy. The increase in selling price expectations will only strengthen that view for the October meeting. Read this article on THINK
French Gross Domestic Product went up slightly. ING points to "strong business investment following the easing of supply chain tensions"

Eurozone: France - Oh My! Check Out August Print Of French Industrial Production!

ING Economics ING Economics 05.10.2022 14:19
Industrial production rebounded more than expected in August, by 2.4% over the month, thanks to the easing of supply constraints. As a result, economic activity could narrowly avoid a contraction in the third quarter, but a recession remains more than likely for this winter A broad rebound After falling by 1.6% over a month in July, French industrial production rebounded in August, increasing by 2.4% over the month. Over a year, the increase was 0.4%. Manufacturing output rose by 2.7% (after -1.6% in July). All branches of industry saw their production increase over the month, except for construction. The rebound was particularly dynamic in automotive production, which increased by 15.6% over the month, thanks to the easing of supply constraints. The August rebound allows industrial production to erase the losses accumulated during 2022 and return to its pre-war level. Nevertheless, output remains 3.5% below its pre-pandemic level. August's strong performance gives hope that industrial production will make a positive contribution to economic growth in the third quarter, which could narrowly avoid a contraction in activity. Headwinds are too strong for the rebound to last Nevertheless, looking ahead, it is to be feared that the effect of reduced supply constraints will not be sufficient to allow the French industry to continue to rebound. In fact, further contractions in industrial activity can be expected. Indeed, the sharp decline in global growth, the contraction in order books since February, the high level of finished goods inventories, high uncertainty, high energy and raw material prices and potential disruptions in energy supply clearly point to a deterioration in the outlook for the French industrial sector in the coming months. The business climate indicator for the sector fell further in September. Since the beginning of the year, it has lost more than 10 points, falling back to the level of spring 2021, thus erasing all its post-lockdowns gains. Moreover, the outlook is not much better in the services sector, which is weighed down by worsening purchasing power, declining consumer confidence and the fading positive effects of the post-pandemic reopening. There is therefore little doubt that France, like its European neighbours, is heading straight for recession. Given the developments of the last few weeks, it is to be feared that French GDP growth will move into negative territory in the fourth quarter, after a probable stagnation in the third quarter. The recession is likely to last throughout the winter, and the prospects for a rebound in the spring of 2023 are fading by the day. We therefore expect growth of 2.4% for the whole of 2022 and -0.4% for the whole of 2023. Read this article on THINK  
The Outlook Of EUR/USD Pair For Long And Short Position

Today ECB Meeting Minutes Are Released. UK: Jonathan Haskel (Bank Of England) Speaks

ING Economics ING Economics 06.10.2022 12:13
Central banks are still far from bailing markets out. There is no evidence that financial stability concerns are distracting them from their inflation fight. Their inflexibility is why we see more upside for rates and spreads Risks remain to the upside for rates BoE and ECB let markets fly on their own If financial stability no doubt registers on central banks’ consciousness, it is doubtful that they see policy implications. The Bank of England (BoE) balking at buying long-end gilts for the second day in a row clearly confirmed that it sees its operation as a temporary backstop, and not something that should dilute its monetary policy stance. Along the same lines, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) reluctance to support peripheral bond markets in August and September 2022 by using PEPP reinvestment flexibility sends a similar message. In the BoE’s case, the gilt long-end received the message loud and clear. 10s30s is racing back towards the levels prevailing before the mini budget and subsequent BoE intervention. If the shape of the curve is the best sign that markets are pricing out BoE intervention, it is the speed of the sell-off that should keep investors up at night. 30Y yields are up almost 40bp this week. Let us hope that pension funds and other structural swap receivers managed to reduce their exposure, or found funding sources for inevitable collateral calls. Markets are forward-looking, and there are no ECB purchases for them to look forward to The glass half full take on European Central Bank (ECB) intervention, or lack thereof, is that spreads remained contained without its help. This is particularly notable in a context of rising core rates and rates volatility. The problem with this take is that markets are forward-looking, and that there are no ECB purchases for them to look forward to. It seems, the bar for purchases is higher than previously thought and could get even higher as hawks seem intent on pushing discussions on quantitative tightening (QT). Read next: RBNZ “Hawkish” Move Offers NZD Support, Australian Retail Sales Rose 0.6% During August| FXMAG.COM Gilt 10s30s is steepening back to its pre-BoE intervention level Source: Refinitiv, ING Central banks can't afford to be complacent on financial stability A look at wider market stress indicators in rates and credit yields a similar conclusion. For the most part, peripheral and core rates are already at crisis levels, but not yet at a breaking point. This is hardly encouraging. A bright spot so far has been short-term funding and money markets but, each time, it is clear that the ECB’s heavy hand is responsible. This is all well and good but the expiration of TLTRO loans, tiering, and the looming QT discussion means markets cannot count on ECB support going forward. Expect to see new highs in yields and spreads as a result of central bank intransigence We think it would be wrong to take comfort in still (barely) functioning markets and that central banks should pay greater attention to financial stability. Balance sheet reduction programmes are adding to financial instability and could ultimately make their fight against inflation harder, not easier, if they are forced to choose between rescuing financial institutions and cooling the economy. Despite the BoE’s intervention last week, we keep a cautious outlook on bond markets. We expect to see new highs in yields and spreads as a result of central bank intransigence. The ECB barely intervened to support spreads in August/September 2022 Source: ECB, ING Today's events and market view European data releases today comprise German and UK construction PMIs and eurozone retail sales, but the minutes of September ECB meeting are likely to steal the limelight. We’re unlikely to get much discussion on QT but we might see some on reserve tiering. Even if this isn’t the case, it is possible that officials discuss in the press the content of yesterday’s ‘non-policy’ meeting discussions on either topics. In the minutes proper, the extent of the ECB’s inflation worries and reasons for a change in reaction function should be the main focus. Jonathan Haskel, of the BoE, is on today’s list of speakers. Bond markets have to absorb supply from Spain (7Y/8Y/10Y/30Y) and France (10Y/30Y/44Y). Today’s US job data menu includes jobless claims and Challenger Job Cuts but this will merely be an appetiser to tomorrow’s employment report. Charles Evans, Lisa Cook, Neel Kashkari, Christopher Waller, and Loretta Mester are all lined up to give their spin on the latest economic, and perhaps financial, developments. Read this article on THINK TagsRates Daily Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Great Britain: According to BRC, food inflation reached 13.3% in December

Bank Of England (BoE) And Its Gilts, European Central Bank's Balance Sheet

ING Economics ING Economics 11.10.2022 21:27
The approaching end to the Bank of England’s purchases has sent gilts into a tailspin, a repo facility would help deal with margin financing but won’t solve the underlying problem. Joint EU debt issuance could compound fears of a more hawkish European Central Bank The Bank of England The end of BoE gilt buying looms large The Bank of England (BoE) tried – and failed – to reassure markets about the end of its gilt-buying program on 14 October. Despite a greater buying capacity of £10bn at each of the remaining operations, offers were limited and the BoE only managed to buy less than £1bn on Monday. The underlying concern is that even as its intervention draws to a close, not enough deleveraging has been achieved by pension funds, and that another wave of forced selling will emerge into next week. Volatility could well force the BoE back to the gilt market, maybe as early as today As the BoE itself has said, the aim of the buying facility was to buy pension funds time to shore up their liquidity position. Concerns remain about whether the last week-and-a-half was enough to achieve this in distressed market conditions. Eventually, the gilt sell-off could force the BoE back into the market. As we wrote at the time, we think a longer period of support for gilts will be necessary to restore market confidence. 30Y gilts traded at 4.7% yesterday, just 30bp below their pre-intervention peak, and their weakness dragged the pound lower. Volatility could well force the BoE back to the gilt market, maybe as early as today. And indeed, the Bank just announced that it will extend its purchases to inflation-linked gilts, adding one buying operation of up to £5bn each day this week to the already scheduled conventional gilt purchases. Helpfully, the announcement came alongside the launch of a repo facility accepting a broader range of assets as collateral. The idea is that instead of being forced sellers of, say, corporate bonds due to growing margin requirements, pension funds could instead pledge them as collateral to obtain financing. The facility will be in place for one month. In our view, this should be viewed as a complement to support the gilt market, not as a replacement, as a gilt sell-off (30Y yields have risen 110bp since their post-intervention through, for 30Y inflation-linked gilts, that figure is over 150bp) could still generate margin calls that exceed the fund’s funding capacity. In a further sign of its concern for market stability, the BoE also temporarily suspended its corporate bonds' quantitative tightening (QT) sales for two days. Long-end gilts are back in the danger zone Source: Refinitiv, ING The multi-headed fiscal hydra is back Of course, the difficulties facing the UK are not unique. The Fed’s tightening cycle and the rising dollar are thorns in the side of many central banks already grappling with inflation, including the ECB. In that context, Bloomberg reporting that Germany is dropping its opposition to joint EU borrowing to finance the energy support package is unlikely to be greeted kindly by bond investors. If confirmed, it would mean more issuance in already nervous markets (have a look at today’s supply slate in the last section), but investors would also worry about the inflationary impact and the ECB’s reaction. Markets can find solace from the contradictory sources cited by Reuters late yesterday. The concern however is that the reports come after Germany unveiled an up to €200bn package, drawing criticism from other countries with insufficient bond market liquidity to finance a commensurate package. Joint issuance would be bad news for core bonds which would nervously await the ECB’s reaction. For sovereign spreads, however, this is good news, as EU loans would lower pressure on peripheral bond markets. The prospect of ECB balance sheet reduction also casts a long shadow on bond markets. Klass Knot suggested that QT could begin at the earliest in early 2023. We still doubt QT could start in such a short timeframe but, if it does, we could see phased-out asset purchase programme (APP) redemptions in 2023, followed by pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) redemptions in 2025. The strongest impact should be felt in peripheral debt markets, while it could also compound the tightening of money market spreads (eg rising Euribor vs Estr or Estr vs ECB deposit rate) due to targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) repayments. The reduction in ECB purchases has already sent bond yields up Source: ECB, ING Today's events and market view Italian industrial production is the main item on today’s economic calendar but it is fair to say that the attention will be on the heavy bond supply slate after yesterday's gilt-led, long-end sell-off. The EU and Germany have both mandated banks for the sales of 7Y/20Y and 30Y bonds, respectively, via syndication. This will come on top of 2Y and 7Y auctions already scheduled by Germany and the Netherlands. The aftermath of the sales could see relief in the sector provided the gilt sell-off doesn’t accelerate. In that respect, the results of the sale of £0.9bn of 30Y inflation-linked gilts, the epicentre of yesterday's market rout, and the focus of newly announced purchases operations, will be key. In the afternoon, the main flashpoint will be US small business optimism. Our economics team flagged the pricing intention component as an important indicator to watch for declining inflation. The US Treasury kicks off this week's supply slate with a 3Y T-note auction for $40bn. Central bank speakers will also be plentiful. From the ECB, Philip Lane and François Villeroy are on the schedule. We’ll look closely for comments on QT or on the risk of more fiscal spending (see above). Andrew Bailey, of the BoE, will also be closely watched as the Bank’s response to the jitter in the gilt market is coming under greater scrutiny. Read this article on THINK TagsRates Daily Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The ECB Has No Other Options But To Keep Tightening The Monetary Policy

"The ECB is also seeing the risk of fiscal policies pushing it towards more aggressive tightening"

ING Economics ING Economics 13.10.2022 11:06
It's been helpful to see core US inflation easing off the highs through the summer. However, the past month or so has seen a re-elevation. And today, the market expects US core inflation to get back up to the 6.5% peak that was seen in March. Market rates remain well below this, as is the Fed funds rate. Based off this alone, rising rates pressure is the upshot Rises in core US inflation can only pressure market rates higher When the Federal Reserve delivered its first 25bp hike in March, core consumer price inflation (CPI) was running at 6.5%. That in fact proved to be a peak, as it wandered to below below 6% in subsequent months. But, it rose last month, and the market is expecting it to have risen again for September (today's report), back up to 6.5%. That’s discouraging against a backdrop where the Federal Open Market Committee minutes paint a clear picture of an intention to keep rate hike pressure elevated until inflation has been tamed. A wider problem for the Treasury market has been the tendency for core measures of inflation to edge higher again in the past couple of months. We saw that from the US PPI report yesterday, with similar expected from the US CPI report today.  The Fed's target of 2% inflation remains quite deviant from the 6% handle that core inflation continues to cling to. And even though we expect inflation to fall in a precipitous manner in the quarters ahead on base effects, a recent tendency for core to remain quite elevated and sticky does not help. This maintains upward pressure on Treasury yields. The 10yr yield has popped above 4% twice in the past few weeks (for the second time yesterday), and seems reluctant to push on above. But in all probability should we see a 6.5% core CPI inflation reading confirmed today, it should provide enough ammunition for it to make the break above. Yes, it’s what is discounted. But confirmation still has real meaning. It’s these inflation numbers that continue to drive market rates, and even though real rates have moved solidly positive and breakeven inflation resolutely lower, the fact remains that market rates remain well below printed inflation rates, as does the funds rate (and the Fed knows it). 30Y GBP swap indicates gilt yields will soon rise above their pre-intervention peak again Source: Refinitiv, ING The BoE is trying to hold the line In the wake of the Fed pressing ahead on its aggressive tightening trajectory, tensions in other markets become more apparent. The UK rates market continues to be a large contributor to volatility as the Bank of England tackles the ongoing fallout from monetary and fiscal policy working at cross purposes. The BoE’s chief economist had signalled the need to raise rates significantly in November, also citing the likely inflationary impact of the government's budget plans as they currently stand. But the announcement of the medium-term fiscal strategy has been brought forward to 31 October, just days before the BoE is set decide on interest rates. Gilt yields only dropped back after the BoE accepted all bids in its daily buying operation Until then the BoE may well continue to play hard ball, at least to the extent that financial stability allows. For now the intervention in the long-end sector of gilts is set to expire by the end of this week, as much was confirmed by a Bank statement after mixed signals in the press. On that prospect the 30Y gilt yield had indeed briefly climbed above 5%, the level reached before the BoE first started long-end gilt purchases, and only dropped back after the BoE accepted all bids in its daily buying operation. The question remains whether two more days of BoE purchases will be enough to calm markets.       ECB quantitative tightening talk is becoming more concrete The European Central Bank is watching the BoE’s struggles closely. It is also seeing the potential risk of fiscal policies pushing it towards more aggressive tightening than otherwise. ECB President Lagarde urged cooperation between central banks and their governments. The remarks of the Dutch Central Bank’s Klaas Knot reflected some unease when he said that he was not sure whether all fiscal measures were targeted enough. Against that backdrop the pricing of rate hikes had already become more aggressive with the market pricing more than 125bp of hikes still this year and the 1y1y ESTR OIS forward close to 3%. The ECB is also seeing the risk of fiscal policies pushing it towards more aggressive tightening And looking beyond rate hikes, the talk of quantitative tightening is already becoming more concrete. President Lagarde confirmed yesterday that the Council had started deliberations on the topic. Other members have already been more specific about the ECB’s plans for its balance sheet. France's Villeroy reiterated that the balance sheet reduction should commence after the normalisation of rates, first with the repayments of the targeted longer-term refinancing operations, where a good part expires in the middle of next year, and then by a gradual reduction of the asset purchase programme portfolio as reinvestments are phased out. This could start before 2024. ECB QT will widen money market spreads, starting in 2023 Source: ECB, ING   Wary of the impact that already the communication surrounding quantitative tightening may have on markets, the ECB’s current messaging does appear more streamlined than we have experienced in the past. It was also Klaas Knot who remarked that bond markets had become more sensitive to debt sustainability issues, and thus “a process like QT – it should be predictable, it should be gradual, it should be even a little bit boring”. The key risk gauge is the 10Y spread between Italian and German government bonds, which temporarily rose some 8bp yesterday, though also amid greater market volatility spilling over from the UK. For eurozone bond markets the ECB's bond purchases have been instrumental in bringing down bond spreads, and with the excess liquidity injected also in the compression of money market. A reversal of the purchases is therefore all but boring. While the emerging outlines of the ECB's quantitative tightening plans are consistent with the assumptions we have made so far, we think there could still be a considerable effect on sovereign and money market spreads.   Today's events and market view Markets will continue to have one eye on the UK's and the BoE's buying operations – and any hint that the intervention could be prolonged. Gilt markets remain a major source of volatility, though today should also see US data taking the spotlight with the CPI data for September. It is the one release where a large surprise could potentially still swing the Fed away from another 75bp jumbo hike, which markets by now are fully discounting. The consensus is looking for the headline rate to be 8.1% year-on-year. In the core rate the focus should be on the anticipated decline in the monthly rate from 0.6% to 0.4%. In the eurozone primary market Italy will sell a new 3-year bond alongside reopenings of 7-, 15- and 30-year bonds for a total of up to €8.75bn. The US Treasury will reopen the 30Y for US$18bn.  Read this article on THINK TagsRates Daily Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The EUR/USD Market Did Not React To Economic Indicators From The Eurozone

"Persistent press reports suggest a change in ECB liquidity policy as soon as the 27 October meeting"

ING Economics ING Economics 14.10.2022 15:37
Press reports suggest that the European Central Bank is about to change remuneration of liquidity as soon as October. We review the options on the table and see how they will affect money market spreads, collateral scarcity, and swap spreads What's on the table: TLTRO changes or tiering Persistent press reports suggest a change in ECB liquidity policy as soon as the 27 October meeting. As rates rise, so will the amount of interest paid to banks on the €4.7tn of excess liquidity in the system. The central bank has a number of options at its disposal to reduce what is perceived as a subsidy to banks, stemming in part from around €2tn of cheap targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO) loans. It will also reduce the risk of central bank losses and thus of operating at with negative equity as our economics team has noted.  Three options are reportedly being discussed: Remunerate each bank’s TLTRO balance at 0% Treat each bank’s TLTRO balance as a required reserve and change the remuneration of required reserves, presumably 0% Introduce tiered remuneration of Excess Liquidity (EL, excess reserves and deposit facility balances): some at the deposit rate, some at 0% Option 1 and Option 2 have their pros and cons. Option 1 may bring litigation risk, while Option 2 implies a complicated change in the ECB’s reserve framework. Both cast unhelpful doubts about change of terms in future ECB liquidity operations. Assuming they both result in TLTRO balances being remunerated at 0%, all options are an incentive for banks to repay TLTRO loans early and their scope shouldn’t go further than that. We should also mention that it wasn't discussed in the most recent press report – a change in the TLTRO lending rate to banks would achieve the same results but bring the same drawbacks. All options are an incentive for banks to repay TLTRO loans early Option 3 is more momentous, in that it could outlive TLTRO. We’ve discussed various tiering designs in a recent publication, and compared them to Swiss and UK situations. The design that seems to have retained the ECB’s attention is one where some portion of each bank’s EL would earn the deposit rate up a certain threshold, and where any EL above that threshold would earn 0%. This option does create an incentive for banks to repay TLTRO funds early, but will also ‘save’ the ECB interest expenses in the longer run. We think it will also compound the widening of money market spreads in subsequent years. The ECB should succeed in causing early TLTRO repayments Source: ECB, ING A faster reduction in excess liquidity The most immediate effect of these measures will be to push banks to reduce their TLTRO balances faster. As things stand, the largest repayment is due in June 2023 but maturities stretch to as far as end-2024. By making TLTRO carry-negative we expect a large chunk of them to be repaid. Of course, in a context of growing funding market stress, it would be understandable that some banks keep some TLTRO balances as a precaution. Out of the €2.1tn TLTRO balances a first €0.5tn early repayment in December 2022, and another €0.5tn in March 2023, once year-end funding uncertainty has eased, are realistic. A first €0.5tn early repayment in December 2022, and another €0.5tn in March 2023, are realistic Excess liquidity is still high enough that an immediate €1tn drop should not affect money market rates much, but there is a catch. If the price of liquidity will not change much, the credit premia should rise on the combined effect of less liquidity chasing yields, and on a slightly greater systemic risk resulting from less abundant central bank funding at a time when the economy is heading into a severe recession. This means the chart below probably understates the widening of Euribor-Estr basis that could occur in 2023. Estr-deposit rate on the other hand should remain more stable, and could even drop temporarily as the deposit rate risks no longer being the marginal interest rates for some money markets. This is one of the shortcomings of this tiering design that we've discussed in more details in an earlier publication. Lower liquidity will eventually widen money market spreads Source: Refinitiv, ING Collateral scarcity: a light at the end of the tunnel? Another important implication of an earlier reduction of EL might be a change of dynamic in the repo market. Early TLTRO repayments means easing collateral scarcity. We think the impact would be mostly indirect because core repo rates have remained below the ECB’s deposit rate, offering no incentive to banks to get their liquidity away in exchange for collateral. Lower liquidity overall should, however, affect non-banks actors and their reliance on the repo market. An earlier reduction in EL will compound other factors with a more direction effect on collateral scarcity An earlier reduction in EL will compound other factors with a more direct effect on collateral scarcity. Governments in the eurozone are expected to increase their borrowing to finance energy support packages, including the much-discussed €200bn German plan, but with possible joint EU issuance also adding to the supply of safe collateral. Quantitative Tightening (QT) will in all likelihood be phased out and will also serve to ease the pressure on the collateral market by reducing the size of ECB bond hoarding. The above doesn’t address the important issue of government deposits being remunerated at 0% (down from the deposit rate currently) after end-April 2023. To be sure, some of this liquidity will find itself deposited back at commercial banks, denting the effect of early TLTRO repayments, but the balance will still amount to an significant incentive for government entities to push cash out in exchange of collateral. Lower will help ease collateral pressure, a little Source: Refinitiv, ING   Swap spreads tightening hopes have been dashed more than once. If pressure eventually eases, it will most likely be in 2023 at the earliest, and visible mostly in shorter tenor swap spreads. Moves in longer maturities will depend on an end to the structural paying flow from borrowers and investors adjusting to a world of higher interest rates. Here too, 2023 seems like the earliest possible date for it to happen. Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The EUR/USD Pair: There Are Still No Sell Signals

It's Unbelievable That Eurozone Inflation Is That Close To The Level Of 10%

ING Economics ING Economics 19.10.2022 15:48
The final estimate of eurozone inflation has been adjusted down from 10% to 9.9%. When looking at the details there's little to be optimistic about. But the chances of peak inflation happening soon are increasing Monthly developments in inflation are concerning Inflation of 9.9% in the eurozone in September marks a huge jump from the 9.1% seen in August. We discussed our first thoughts on the reading here. Now that more detail has been released, let’s see whether there are any positive signs of inflation turning around. Let’s look at monthly developments, which we judge on a seasonally-adjusted basis to allow for month-on-month comparisons (seasonal adjustments are our own). The one bright spot was goods inflation, which fell on a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis from 0.8% to 0.3%. Other than that, jumps in services and food inflation stand out. Energy inflation continues to be too high as well, so the broad conclusion is that inflation remains far too high across all broad categories. Monthly inflation came in hot again as most categories saw prices grow faster than in August Seasonal adjustment from ING Research Source: Eurostat, Macrobond, ING Research   Looking somewhat deeper under the hood, we see that the jump in September was mainly driven by the end of the German €9 ticket for public transport as most other services saw stable price growth compared to last month. Package holidays’ inflation was elevated over the summer but dropped back in August and September, while other categories have been fairly stable (albeit at rates that are far too high). So, next month is likely to see slower services inflation on a monthly basis. Services inflation was driven by the reversal of the €9 public transport ticket in Germany Seasonally adjusted by ING Research Source: Eurostat, Macrobond, ING Research It's far too early to call peak inflation, but chances of a peak soon are increasing Energy inflation saw another uptick in both fuel and electricity and gas categories on a monthly basis due to the bounce back in oil prices and pass-through to the consumer of the August peak in gas prices. For the months ahead, the energy price declines of recent weeks are very welcome for the overall economy, but the question is how quickly that feeds through to consumer prices. Do expect some relief of course as year-on-year growth in spot prices for natural gas has turned negative this month, while it was still 192% in September and 425% in August. We also see declining futures prices, albeit at a slower pace. Annual growth in fuel prices is also steadily dropping, from 15% in September to 11% in October. Energy inflation remains high, but drop in market gas prices should provide some relief Base effects will be more favourable in October and November. The monthly increase in the index last year was strong at 0.7% and 0.8%, which will drop out of the calculations this month. That should add to some relief. But on the other hand, steady increases in food and core inflation are unlikely to be reversed quickly so not too much is expected from the upcoming inflation reading. While we see encouraging news from the energy side, there is too much uncertainty about key drivers of price, such as geopolitical developments and weather, to call peak inflation at this point. Also, core inflation drivers show only modest improvements at this point, so we’re cautious about an immediate peak there too. Still, the current improvements on the energy side should provide some relief for the moment and as strong base effects are fading and price caps are discussed, chances of an inflation peak soon are increasing. Read next: Apple’s New Products | Goldman Sachs’ Results | In Amazon Rejected A Unionization| FXMAG.COM Read this article on THINK
Forex: US dollar against Japanese yen amid volatility and macroeconomics

Eurozone consumer confidence and Fed members speeches are crucial events today

ING Economics ING Economics 21.10.2022 12:38
Pressure continues to build on market rates, as they ratchet higher in a relentless fashion. That can be dangerous, as we can easily face circumstances where something breaks. The UK had a brief taste of this. But even there, the odds are that gilts too re-engage in the 'pain trade' of higher market rates and tighter conditions. The US 10yr is eyeing 4.5% Rates are set to go higher The US 10yr has a pathway to 4.5%, but is held back by capital inflows The separation between UK gilts and US Treasuries has been quite stark. In fact, it’s UK gilts doing their own thing as Treasury yields and Bund yields just continue to shoot on higher. The 10yr US Treasury yield in the area of 4.25% and the 10yr Euribor rate in the 3.25% area are quite some levels, and the trend for yields remains to the upside. UK gilts are now trading back below Treasuries as the outlook for the UK darkens, even as the smog of the political landscape clears. These are remarkable times where the market abruptly stepped in recently to punish policy mistakes in the UK, but has tended not to do the same in the US and the eurozone where arguably some mistakes have also been made (albeit not as stark). But the UK is suffering from a very poor track record, and sterling is no dollar. Even the euro is managing to trend firmer versus sterling (big picture). Capital flows are and will be a driver ahead The fact that global FX reserves have a 7% weighting in sterling is anomalous given the 3% weight of the UK in global GDP (approximate rounded numbers). Times are a-changing for the UK. For the US the mighty dollar remains everyone else’s problem and is reflective of net capital flows; it’s also containing the rise in US Treasury yields. Had it not been for the buffer being offered by the flight into Treasuries and US assets (in a relative sense), Treasury yields would be much higher than they currently are. With the effective fund rate now discounted at 5%, there is a path for the US 10yr to get to 4.5% (with 50bp through at the extreme in the past, when the funds rate peaks). It does not need to go much above this, provided the terminal rate discount does not continue to ratchet higher, and there are no guarantees there. Forget the gilt rally, bond yields are heading up globally Source: Refinitiv, ING UK in the headlines, but no longer in the driving seat The UK remains in the headlines with prime minister Truss announcing her resignation yesterday and the governing Conservative party heading for another leadership contest. With thus some uncertainty still surrounding the fiscal plans, gilts should continue to trade with a risk premium. Any further retightening versus Bunds looks set to be much slower. The 10Y spread between gilts and bunds has already tightened from levels around 215bp last week to 150bp following the latest developments. This is still above levels in late August/early September before the spike in gilt yields. Long end yields should struggle to remain below 4% But as politics start to emerge from their turmoil gilts will increasingly focus on the Bank of England’s reaction. Currently, markets are still seeing the Bank lifting the key rate above 5% before the middle of next year. That being the case will also mean that long-end yields should struggle to remain below 4%. There's still a risk given the political backdrop that the BoE won't have all the information on fiscal plans when it decides on rates in November. Such feared lack of clarity may help explain why money market pricing has not dropped more on the back of dovish comments coming from the bank's Broadbent yesterday, who clearly said he thought market pricing was overdone. Our own economists think that the Bank Rate could top out at 3.5% to 4%.   There is still a 50bp political risk premium in gilts but it won't go away easily Source: Refinitiv, ING inflation versus recession angst enters the next round At the forefront of the inflation-fighting charge next week will be the European Central Bank, which is seen hiking 75bp and perhaps also setting in motion first plans to start shrinking the balance sheet. But they will also follow the Bank of Canada’s decision, which should underscore that the hawkish push is a global phenomenon. A larger 75bp hike looks more likely here after a recent upside surprise in inflation. The Fed meeting is still a week further away, but here US money markets have for the first time started to price a terminal rate of 5% for the Fed Funds effective rate. To be sure, the market is still pricing the Fed turning towards cuts later next year, but Fed officials are pushing against that notion. The Fed’s Harker stated that it could hold hiking in 2023. But this is more to assess whether policies have the desired impact on inflation as he remarked the Fed could then tighten further if needed; one cost being that he sees unemployment peaking at 4.5% next year. Near-term data is unlikely to deter markets from continuing to price a hawkish Fed Near-term data is unlikely to deter markets from continuing to price a hawkish Fed. The 3Q GDP data next week should show positive growth again after the technical recession of the first half of the year. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure due for release next week should reflect the upside surprise already witnessed in the CPI data. As for the eurozone, the PMI data next week as well as the German Ifo index later in the week should provide evidence of the economy having slid further into contraction. The ECB’s new reaction function has made clear though that the fight against inflation may come at the cost of recession. While market participants will always question how far this notion can be pushed, we doubt that they are in the position to focus on the long-term picture just yet. Market volatility remains high and the outlooks for both inflation and growth are still shrouded in great uncertainty. In the upcoming round of inflation versus recession angst, inflation looks set to maintain the upper hand. The odd one out among next week’s central banks is the Bank of Japan which is largely seen to stay put, sticking with asset purchases and its yield curve control programme. But with inflation hitting 3% for the first time in three decades the pressure on the bank to eventually reduce stimulus is increasing. Today's events and market view Near-term upside to rates should dominate. In the upcoming round of central bank meetings, kicking off with the ECB next week, inflation angst should still maintain the upper hand in determining policy action and communication. Eurozone PMI data at the start of the week pointing to deepening economic woes as well as month end – note that the German debt agency’s increase in own holdings will also be reflected in the month-end rebalancing of index trackers – can provide some support to rates markets. But that may prove fleeting as the focus then turns to the Fed and BoE. Eurozone consumer confidence is one of the few data points to watch today. In the US the Fed's Williams and Evans are scheduled to speak. Read this article on THINK TagsRates Daily Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Euro to US dollar - Ichimoku cloud analysis - 21/11/22

The week ahead looks promising. ECB Decides on interest rate, ING Economics expects a 75bp rate hike

ING Economics ING Economics 21.10.2022 15:06
All eyes will be on the European Central Bank meeting next week. We think a 75bp hike looks like a done deal. The PMI survey on Monday will also be closely watched, providing clues on whether the eurozone economy has contracted even further. For the Bank of Canada, we expect a similar 75bp rate hike, given the upside surprise in inflation In this article US: The Fed cannot slow the pace of hikes yet Canada: a 75bp hike is the most likely outcome UK: Markets looking for clarity on fiscal plans and government stability Eurozone: ECB to hike by 75bp again amid ongoing inflation concern Source: Shutterstock   US: The Fed cannot slow the pace of hikes yet There are lots of important numbers out for the US next week, but none are likely to change the market's forecast for a 75bp interest rate hike on 2 November. 3Q GDP is likely to show positive growth after the “technical” recession experienced in the first half of the year. Those two consecutive quarters of negative growth were primarily caused by volatility in trade and inventories, which should both contribute positively to the 3Q data. Consumer spending is under pressure though while residential investment will be a major drag on growth. We are forecasting a sub-consensus 1.7% annualised rate of GDP growth. We will also get the Fed’s favoured measure of inflation, the core personal consumer expenditure deflator. This is expected to broadly match what happened to core CPI so we look for the annual rate to rise to 5.2% from 4.9%. With the economy growing and inflation heading in the wrong direction, the Fed cannot slow the pace of hikes just yet. Also, look out for durable goods orders – Boeing had a decent month so there should be a rise in the headline rate although ex-transportation, orders will likely be softer. We should also pay close attention to consumer confidence and house prices. The surge in mortgage rates and collapse in mortgage applications for home purchases has resulted in falling home sales. With housing supply also on the rise, we expect to see prices fall for a second month in a row. Over the longer term, this should help to get broader inflation measures lower given the relationship with the rental components that go into the CPI. Canada: a 75bp hike is the most likely outcome In Canada, the central bank is under pressure to hike rates a further 75bp given the upside surprise in inflation. Job creation has also returned and consumer activity is holding up so we agree that 75bp is the most likely outcome having previously forecast a 50bp hike. UK: Markets looking for clarity on fiscal plans and government stability The ruling Conservative Party has said it will fast-track plans to get a new leader in place by next Friday - and potentially even by Monday if only one candidate makes it through the MP selection round. Candidates have until Monday at 2pm to clear the hurdle of 100 MP nominations to make it onto the ballot paper, before Conservative MPs vote on the outcome. With only a week to go until the Medium Term Fiscal Plan on 31 October, there's inevitably a question of whether this is enough time for a new prime minister to rubber stamp Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's plans for debt sustainability. Investors are - probably rightly - assuming that Hunt will remain in position under a new leader. But the bigger question is whether the Conservative Party can unite behind a new leader and whether a more stable political backdrop can emerge - because if it can't, then not only is there uncertainty surrounding future budget plans, but also whether we're moving closer to an early election. Eurozone: ECB to hike by 75bp again amid ongoing inflation concern The hawks have clearly convinced the few doves left of the necessity to go big on rate hikes again. Contrary to the run-up to the July and September meetings, there hasn’t been any publicly debated controversy on the size of the rate hike. In fact, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde seems to have succeeded in disciplining a sometimes very heterogeneously vocal club. To this end, it is hard to see how the ECB cannot move again by 75bp at next week’s meeting. As the 75bp rate hike looks like a done deal, all eyes will also be on other, more open, issues: excess liquidity, quantitative tightening and the terminal interest rate. Read more here. Besides the ECB, which will be the key focal point for eurozone investors, we’re looking at the survey gauges of the economy next week. The PMIs on Monday will be critical to determine whether the eurozone economy has slid further into contraction or whether an uptick has occurred. There is not much evidence on the latter in our view, but Monday will provide more clarity on how the eurozone economy is performing in October. Key events in developed markets next week Source: Refinitiv, ING This article is part of Our view on next week’s key events   View 3 articles TagsUS UK election Eurozone Canada Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The Outlook Of EUR/USD Pair For Long And Short Position

Eurozone PMI hits 47.1, one point less than the consensus | ING Economics expects two hikes of 50 and 75bp this year

ING Economics ING Economics 24.10.2022 11:08
A weaker-than-expected PMI confirms that the eurozone is now in recession. While pipeline price pressures are gradually abating, it seems too soon to give the all-clear on consumer price inflation. The European Central Bank (ECB) will therefore remain in tightening mode until the first quarter of 2023 Downturn confirmed The eurozone composite PMI flash estimate fell to a lower-than-expected 47.1 in October, from 48.1 in September. This is not only a 23-month low but is also the fourth consecutive month that the PMI has been below the 50 boom-or-bust level, clearly suggesting negative GDP growth. The manufacturing PMI came out at 46.6, while the services sector PMI is now at 48.2. The steepest downturns were seen in the most energy-dependent industries, such as chemical and plastics and basic resource sectors. Industrial powerhouse Germany saw the fastest decline in activity, while in France growth merely stalled. Forward-looking components of the survey don’t herald any improvement in the coming months – on the contrary. New orders for goods and services fell for the fourth month in a row. Excluding the Covid-19 pandemic, manufacturing orders saw the biggest drop since April 2009, while the decline in new business inflows into service sector companies was the strongest since June 2013. No wonder that backlogs of orders fell for a fourth consecutive month, especially in manufacturing. While there was still modest employment growth in October, there seems to be job cutting at some firms and hesitancy to hire in the wake of the uncertain economic outlook. This means that the job market is likely to be less of a support for consumption in the coming quarters. Too soon to give the all-clear on inflation In this rapidly weakening economic environment, supply chain delays have eased to the lowest in just over two years. Manufacturers also bought fewer inputs, reflecting lower production plans and inventory reduction policies in the wake of weakening sales. Easing raw material supply constraints were partially offset by rising energy costs and upward wage pressures, keeping the overall rate of input cost inflation elevated. This still translated into a high rate of increase in prices charged for goods and services, with rates of selling price inflation cooling only marginally in both manufacturing and services. While it seems obvious that upstream price increases are now softening, it still seems a bit too soon to give the all-clear on consumer price inflation. This is one of the last important economic data the ECB disposes of in the run-up to the meeting of the Government Council on Thursday. While in our view today’s figure clearly confirms that the eurozone economy is already in recession, the ECB has made it clear that a downturn would not deter it from tightening monetary policy, as long as inflation is not brought under control. With inflation hovering around 10%, the bank surely wants to restore its credibility. We therefore pencil in another 75bp hike this week and 50bp in December. As inflation is likely to start to come down in the first quarter of 2023 and signs of recession will become more prominent, we think the ECB will stop tightening after the February meeting when we expect the deposit rate to have reached 2.25%. Read this article on THINK TagsInflation GDP Eurozone ECB Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The Upward Trend Of The EUR/USD Pair Is Still Present

German manufacturing PMI hits 45.7, ECB will most probably go for 75bp, but 100bp is not excluded. Naturally, Lagarde's rhetoric will be crucial for euro

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 24.10.2022 14:59
EUR/USD has edged lower at the start of the week. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 0.9824, down 0.37%.   Manufacturing, services PMI point to contraction Germany is the locomotive of the Eurozone, and a faltering economy means trouble for the entire bloc. German Service and Manufacturing PMIs remained in contraction territory in September, below the neutral level of 50.0. The Manufacturing PMI fell to 45.7, down from 47.8 (47.0 est). The PMI has declined for a fourth straight month, as high energy costs and weak demand for goods have dampened factory production. German business activity is also struggling, as the Services PMI ticked lower to 44.9, down from 45.0, (44.7 est). The eurozone PMIs are also mired in contraction territory, and with winter coming and no end in sight to the Ukraine war, the PMIs will likely continue to decline in the short term.   ECB expected to hike by 0.75% The ECB meets on Thursday, with policy makers having to contend not only with a gloomy economic outlook, but also with spiralling inflation, with no sign of a peak. Eurozone CPI jumped to 9.9% in September, up sharply from the 9.1% rise in August. The markets have priced in a supersize 0.75% hike, which would bring the cash rate to 2.0% and will be looking for the Bank to declare its commitment to bring inflation back to the 2% target. A jumbo full-point increase is unlikely, but a possibility, given that inflation is close to double-digits. Investors will be monitoring the follow-up press conference, and the euro’s movement could well depend on ECB President Lagarde message to the markets – a signal that further rate hikes are coming would be bullish for the euro.   EUR/USD Technical EUR/USD is testing support at 0.9814. Next, there is support at 0.9753 There is resistance at 0.9924 and 0.9985     This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Euro slips lower on soft German PMIs - MarketPulseMarketPulse
InstaForex expects risky assets to regain demand if the US CPI declines

ECB is expected to hike by 75bp. USD is not that powerful at the moment, and it seems that a less hawkish move may be on the cards

ING Economics ING Economics 27.10.2022 11:25
The dollar is having one of its deepest corrections of the year. Yesterday's smaller-than-expected hike by the Bank of Canada has given rise to speculation that the Fed may also want to slow the pace of tightening. Softer-than-expected 3Q US GDP numbers later could see the dollar correct a little further. But the highlight today should be a 75bp ECB hike USD: Focus on US GDP numbers Volatility remains the name of the game and the dollar is now seeing one of its deepest corrections of the year. If we were to say what drove dollar weakness yesterday, we would highlight: i) quite a sharp turn lower in USD/CNY where there had been reports of Chinese state banks selling (quasi intervention?) and ii) the smaller than expected Bank of Canada (BoC) rate hike by 50bp. On the latter, it does seem that the BoC is a little hesitant to power ahead with 75bp rate hikes, noting the slowing economy. This has raised speculation that the Fed may not be as immune to economic weakness as it claims. Somewhat surprisingly, the pricing of the Fed terminal rate is only 15bp off its recent highs at 5.00%. This suggests the FX market has reacted more than the rates market. That brings us to today where we will receive third-quarter US GDP data. My colleague, James Knightley, believes there are downside risks to the consensus figure of 2.4% QoQ annualised given softer residential investment and consumption. Such an outcome could feed the corrective forces currently at work for the dollar. That could possibly see the DXY correction extend all the way to the 100-day moving average at 108.42. However, some high US inflation data tomorrow and what should be a hawkish Fed next week should contain the depth and length of this dollar correction. And for those corporates with dollar needs over the next 3-6 months, this correction should be a good opportunity to secure dollars. As an aside, we noted reports of record US crude and refined product exports last week. That will help keep the US current account deficit in check. Chris Turner EUR: A hawkish ECB has not helped the euro so far this year The European Central Bank is expected to hike rates by 75bp today, which will bring the deposit rate to 1.50%. Money markets price the deposit rate being taken to 2.75% in a year's time. Our team thinks the top in the cycle will be more like 2.25%, but with Eurozone CPI running at 10% it is too early to expect the ECB to push back against such pricing. As my colleagues discuss in their ECB preview, beyond any discussion on the terminal rate, the focus will be on i) excess liquidity and ii) Quantitative tightening (QT). On the former, source stories suggest the ECB may adjust the terms of the existing TLTROs (making borrowing rates less advantageous) as opposed to some kind of reverse tiering which could depress available deposit rates. This makes sense in that the ECB will not want to depress money market rates as it fights inflation. On the QT side, our team feels it is too early to provide too many details on QT, where a wind-down of the ECB balance sheet could hit peripheral debt markets. What does this all mean for the euro? As my colleague Carsten Brzeski noted in that ECB preview, the ECB has surprised hawkishly all year - but EUR/USD has generally ended ECB policy days weaker. It feels like investors use the liquidity provided around ECB event risk to offload euros. As noted above, we have a slightly softer environment today and EUR/USSD has firmly broken out of this year's bear channel. That could point to EUR/USD risk on the day to 1.0200. If EUR/USD does find something bearish in the release, ideally it would now need to break back below the 0.9920/0.9950 area to return us to the bear trend. Chris Turner GBP: Recovery moves into the hard yards Sterling continues to enjoy a renaissance, but we would argue that further gains will be harder to come by. The fiscal credibility premium has reduced substantially, and increasingly the markets will be left to focus on the UK fiscal/monetary policy mix. Here the delay in the release of the government's fiscal plan to November 17th serves as a reminder that there is a lot to play for. Does the delay signify greater cost-cutting at work or will the use of lower gilt yields and lower gas prices in the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimates mean that the Sunak government has to do less cost-cutting overall?  Where the ground looks slightly firmer is on the Bank of England (BoE) side. Here a recent speech by the BoE's Ben Broadbent makes the case that the BoE does not need to respond as aggressively as the markets have priced to government spending plans. In effect, this is a push-back against the aggressive pricing of the BoE cycle. And if there is a risk to the consensus of the BoE hiking 75bp next week, it's that it merely rises by 50bp.  The softer dollar environment means that the GBP/USD correction could extend to the 1.1750 area - but we doubt these gains last. EUR/GBP may well find support in the 0.8600/8650 area, with risks tilted towards 0.8800 into next week. Chris Turner CEE: ECB may spoil the party in the region The Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region continues to seek new local currency gains thanks to a combination of new highs in EUR/USD, gas prices staying below EUR 100/MWh, elevated rates and risk-on sentiment in the markets. This saw the Polish zloty reach its strongest levels since late September and the Hungarian forint test the recent highs. The Romanian leu also looked stronger, breaking significantly away from central bank intervention levels for the first time since the summer. We see similar buying interest in the ROMGB market, but we think it is too early to consider this the same scenario as we saw in the summer. The Czech koruna is the only currency in the region to remain flat after fresh comments from the CNB, which once again cooled market hopes for an additional rate hike at the November meeting. However, the koruna is well away from the CNB's intervention levels, and our estimates suggest that the central bank has not had to intervene since the September meeting. Today, the regional calendar is empty again and all eyes will be on the ECB, which could threaten the favourable EUR/USD levels for the CEE region and end the positive story of the last two weeks. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The EUR/USD Pair Is Showing A Potential For Bearish Drop

We could say European Central Bank has three variants to choose from today

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 27.10.2022 12:06
EUR/USD is in a holding pattern ahead of today’s ECB rate meeting. In the European session, the euro is trading at 1.0068, down 0.16%. ECB projected to hike by 0.75% The ECB holds its policy meeting later today, amidst difficult economic conditions in the eurozone. Inflation jumped to 9.9% in September, up sharply from 9.1%. The manufacturing and services sectors are in decline and confidence levels are low. The markets have priced in a 0.75% hike and there has even been talk of a jumbo full-point increase. Could the ECB surprise with a lower-than-expected hike of 0.50%? Earlier this week, the Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of Australia both delivered smaller hikes than expected, at 0.50% and 0.25%, respectively.  The message from both central banks is that they are close to ending their rate-tightening cycles and expect inflation to peak in the next several months. Read next: ECB is expected to hike by 75bp. USD is not that powerful at the moment, and it seems that a less hawkish move may be on the cards| FXMAG.COM Will the ECB follow suit? It’s possible but unlikely. The ECB only entered the tightening game in July, and the current benchmark of 1.25% remains out-of-sync with inflation, which is close to double-digits and the ECB needs to be aggressive if it hopes to beat inflation. The benchmark rates are much higher in Canada (3.75%) and Australia (2.60%) and have slowed economic growth, while the ECB’s low benchmark rate has not had the same effect. Still, the weak eurozone economy could tip into recession as a result of sharp rate hikes, which means that a 0.50% hike cannot be completely discounted. We can expect some movement from EUR/USD in response to the ECB decision – an increase of 0.75% or 1.00% will be bullish for the currency, while a 0.50% hike would disappoint investors and likely send the euro lower. EUR/USD Technical There is resistance at 1.0095 and 1.0154 0.9924 and 0.9814 are the next support levels   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. EUR/USD eyes ECB rate decision - MarketPulseMarketPulse
The ECB President Christine Lagarde's Speech Could Bring Back Risk Appetite

"The ECB was also not unanimous on the size of yesterday’s hike"

ING Economics ING Economics 28.10.2022 14:47
The ECB hiked and signalled more to come, but markets rallied seeing it as more appreciative of the downside growth risks. Staying vague on QT has helped sovereign spreads, and the ECB chose less disruptive balance sheet tweaks as first steps. It fit well into markets looking for any signs of central banks shifting into lower gear    The ECB is seen more appreciative of downside risk to growth The ECB hiked rates by 75bp as expected and signalled it had more ground to cover. Still, markets rallied as the European Central Bank was perceived as being more appreciative of the downside risks to growth. It may be a bit of a selective perception, markets being predisposed with potential policy pivots of central banks globally. President Lagarde did spend more time on risks to growth in the press conference, yet the downbeat views and warnings on rising unemployment were offset by inflation risks now seen “clearly” to the upside. The perceived dovishness has its price – markets have pushed their inflation expectations higher in reaction to the ECB meeting, the often cited 5y5y forward inflation swap nudging around 5bp higher. The ECB was also not unanimous on the size of yesterday’s hike Money market pricing of future hikes eased notably with the terminal rate slipping almost 30bp towards 2.5% – that is still another 100bp of further rate hikes from here. While the ECB itself also expects to raise rates further, it removed the reference to “the next several meetings” from its press statement, though Lagarde still made that reference in the press conference. It later emerged that the ECB was also not unanimous on the size of yesterday’s hike with three council members calling for a smaller hike, according to Bloomberg. But reportedly the Council did not intend to send any specific signal for the size of future rate hikes.    The clearest dovish signal was that quantitative tightening had not been discussed further at this meeting. A decision for the key parameters has been left for December with an actual start date for quantitative tightening to follow later. That still leaves all options for a start next year on the table, but clearly the ECB has not set itself on a pre-set course as some hawks would have liked to see it happen given their remarks over the past month. The market’s reaction was clear with the yield spread of the 10Y Italian government bonds tightening by more than 10bp yesterday closer towards 200bp again.     Peripheral bonds are the main beneficiaries of an ECB perceived to be less hawkish Source: Refinitiv, ING Money markets are the next battleground after TLTRO tweaks The ECB also changed the targeted longer-term refinancing operation lending terms and lowered the remuneration of banks minimum reserve holdings. Of all the options available to the ECB, they were probably the least disruptive. The latter only marginally reduces the ECB’s interest rate expenses, though the ECB may at some later stage still opt to increase the minimum reserve requirement – recall that it was halved in 2012. And think of it more like a tax on banks which does not change any of the incentives driving market rates.    The former decision on TLTROs increased the effective lending rate for the remainder of the operations’ terms and could thus lead to larger early repayments. To that end the ECB has also offered additional repayment dates outside of the established quarterly rhythm. As our banking analyst notes, repayments should edge up, but maybe not overwhelmingly in the beginning, as even the higher rate may still compare favourably to market funding for some banks.     TLTROs were instrumental in bringing down Euribor/OIS and suppressing the pass-through of sovereign risks The TLTRO decision marks the ECB’s first steps towards reducing its balance sheet. The ECB’s stated aim is to “normalise bank funding costs”, which effectively should be read as higher rates. Even after TLTROs are paid down, the excess liquidity levels should still be high enough to prevent a larger updrift of the overnight ESTR rate, but term rates should increase first, meaning wider money market (credit) spreads. Recall that TLTROs were instrumental in bringing down Euribor rates relative to OIS, the high excess liquidity levels also largely suppressing the pass-through of sovereign risks down to the money market level. This effect is now about to unwind. Do the TLTRO tweaks ease the collateral squeeze? Lagarde said it was not their primary intent, but it could be a side effect. The collateral pledged in the operations itself is hardly the high quality and liquid type that is so dearly in demand, but repaying the TLTROs can still mean on aggregate less excess liquidity chasing the same quality collateral. It may thus still ease the strains at the margin.     As excess liquidity retreats, Euribor will become more sensitive to credit and sovereign spreads Source: Refinitiv, ING Today's events and market view Near term the ECB has more ground to cover in its fight against inflation, and the first background reports after the meeting seem to suggest that it was not the ECB's intention to signal any loss of determination or slowing in the tightening process. More pushback from the hawks could be forthcoming, though that may prove difficult with the markets’ current predisposition for central banks to shift into a lower gear and the focus now turning to the BoE and Fed next week. Our economists anticipate that the ECB will manage to deliver another 75bp of rate increases in total, but eventually also the ECB will not be able to withdraw itself from a souring economic reality. Data today should highlight the ECB’s struggle with first preliminary inflation data from individual eurozone countries staying elevated, if not edging higher. Also for release are the first 3Q GDP readings confirming the slowdown. In the US the PCE core deflator, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, will also show that this central bank's job is not done yet as it is seen edging up again. Q3 employment cost index will also provide an important clue as to the strengh of underlying inflation. Also on the menu are personal income and spending data as well as the final University of Michigan consumer confidence readings.  Today's bond supply comes from Italy, which will reopen a 5Y bond and a 5Y floating rate note, as well as auction a new 10Y benchmark – all in all for a total of up to €7.5bn.  Read this article on THINK TagsRates Daily Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Eurozone: Spanish Gross Domestic Product jumped much less than in August

Eurozone: Spanish Gross Domestic Product jumped much less than in August

ING Economics ING Economics 28.10.2022 14:58
The Spanish economy grew by 0.2% Q-on-Q in the third quarter, a significant slowdown from the 1.5% we saw the previous month. A strong tourism season helped stop the growth figures from turning negative Spain has had a good tourism season Spain's economy slowed sharply in the third quarter Spain's economy still grew by 1.5% on a quarterly basis In the second quarter, thanks to strong growth in domestic demand and the revival of tourism. However, growth slowed sharply to 0.2% QoQ. In the manufacturing sector, economic activity stagnated. While manufacturing recorded growth of 1.7% QoQ in the previous quarter, it fell to just 0.1% in the third. The services sector also slowed significantly from 1.6% to 0.7%. The leisure sector still recorded strong growth rates (7.6% QoQ), mainly thanks to a strong tourist season. The tourism sector, contributing 14% of total GDP in 2019, has held up much better than the rest of the economy so far and positively contributed to the growth figures. Economy is likely to fall in a recession over the winter months The latest figures suggest the economy is likely to contract in the fourth quarter. Both manufacturing and service sector PMIs fell below 50 in September, signalling contraction. New orders were again noticeably down in September as the high inflation and bleak economic outlook weighed on demand. There is little improvement in sight as Spanish consumer confidence fell again in September. The index stands below the Covid-19 pandemic low illustrating that Spaniards are increasingly worried about high inflation. Also, tourism, which contributed positively to growth figures in the second quarter, is starting to show signs of weakening. While the number of international visitors in July was still at 92% of its pre-pandemic levels, this dropped to 87% in August. The slowdown in domestic tourism was even greater than that of foreign tourism. The number of hotel stays booked by residents fell to 101% of pre-pandemic levels in August, from 107% in July. On the other hand, the aid packages, amounting to 30 billion euros or 2.3% of Spanish GDP announced by the government last month will bring some relief. We forecast a mild recession for the Spanish economy in the next 2 quarters. Thanks to the strong first half of the year, GDP growth will still come in at 4.3% in 2022, but for 2023 we are now looking at 0.3% growth. Read this article on THINK TagsTourism Spain PMI GDP Eurozone Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The EUR/USD Pair Is Showing A Potential For Bearish Drop

Eurozone's GDP growth hits 0.2%, inflation exceeds 10.5%!

ING Economics ING Economics 31.10.2022 12:02
The eurozone contraction hasn’t started yet as GDP growth for the third quarter came in at 0.2%. Inflation continues to increase though, which sets the eurozone economy up for a tough winter as a recession is looming Inflation continues to be a problem across the eurozone. Pictured: shoppers in Madrid GDP growth of 0.2% is better than expected A positive surprise for eurozone GDP. In fairness, this has happened often during the pandemic recovery as the rebound effect has been stronger and lasted longer than expected. While cracks in the eurozone economy are clearly showing, the economy continued to expand in the third quarter. In Germany, it looks like this was mainly due to the last legs of the consumer rebound, while in France consumption growth had already stalled. Investment was the positive surprise in France. Spain experienced fast slowing growth but the tourism recovery prevented the economy from going into the red in the third quarter.  Overall, the picture remains bleak though. Consumer confidence is near historical lows as real wage growth is at a multiple-decade low at the moment. This weighs substantially on the consumption outlook, as retail sales have already been trending down over recent quarters. The reopening of economies boosted services, but that effect is now fading. With interest rates up and the economic outlook uncertain, investment expectations are weakening too. We therefore still expect the economy to contract over the coming quarters. Inflation into double digits The inflation rate jumped once again in October, to a whopping 10.7%. This was partly on higher consumer energy prices. The low prices on the wholesale market in recent weeks are clearly not yet translating into declining prices for households. In fact, it’s likely that this will only happen in a few months’ time and even that is a big 'if' because it depends on uncertain factors such as energy supply and the weather of course. Other components saw little bright spots in this October release. Food inflation continues to trend up fast despite commodity prices moderating, and goods inflation is also still showing large monthly gains which that's pushed core inflation up to 5%. Services inflation trended just mildly higher to 4.4% in October. Overall there is still clear evidence that the second round effects of the supply-side shocks to the economy keep pushing up inflation despite moderating demand. Tough time for a pivot? The slightly more dovish tone at the ECB press conference on Thursday indicates we shouldn't come to expect such extensive rate hikes, such as the 75bp rise they gave us last week, to be a feature of forthcoming meetings, especially since a recession is drawing closer. Today’s data will provide more ammunition for the hawks to show that there is no need to make a sudden pivot yet. Overall though, we keep reiterating that current inflation cannot be fought effectively by monetary policy that has the most effect with a big lag. And hawks cannot expect GDP to keep surprising on the upside forever. With economic conditions weakening and a recession in the making for the winter, we think the ECB is going make its next hike somewhat smaller at 50 basis points. Given the historic total size of the hikes the ECB is delivering, that will have quite the slowing impact on the economy next year. Read this article on THINK TagsInflation GDP Eurozone Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Euro to US dollar - Ichimoku cloud analysis - 21/11/22

Eurozone inflation jumped by 0.8%. | Core inflation and other indicators went up. FxPro's analyst says ECB shouldn't slowdown

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 31.10.2022 15:42
Eurostat's preliminary estimate indicated an acceleration of annual inflation in the euro region from 9.9% immediately to 10.7%. Economists, on average, expected no change, and this difference of 0.8 percentage points is one of the most prominent indicators economists predict quite accurately on average. But it's not only this surprise that we want to point out, but also how fast price growth has spread beyond energy and food categories. Core inflation accelerated to 5% YoY in September, adding 0.6% MoM. Non-energy industrial goods rose at 1.2% MoM and 6.0% YoY. These dynamics should signal that the ECB should not reduce the pace of monetary tightening. No doubt the ECB had this or very comparable data available for last Thursday's meeting but chose to act within market expectations with a rate hike of 75 points. A softer policy than required by the macroeconomic context is likely to be one of the reasons for the pressure on the euro on Monday. The EURUSD is testing the 0.9900 level and the 50-day moving average from above. A sharp dip below would make the previous breakout be considered false. A breakup of the rising trend from the end of September would set the pair to create a global low, disappointing the recent buyers. At the same time, the market is unlikely to make an essential move beyond local trends before the results of Wednesday evening's Fed meeting. The FOMC is expected to raise rates by 75 points for the fourth consecutive time but will indicate a smaller rate hike in the future, which could reduce traction in dollar-denominated assets.
Eurozone industry holds up better than expected in the pandemic aftermath

Eurozone: confidence and spending power in the current status don't paint a rosy picture

ING Economics ING Economics 08.11.2022 15:56
Eurozone retail sales grew by 0.4% month-on-month in September, rounding out a disappointing quarter for sales. We see a continued cloudy outlook for retail as spending power remains under pressure and confidence is still near record lows A modest increase in retail sales in September rounded out a disappointing third quarter in terms of consumer spending. While there were some upside surprises to be noted, the consumer in general has started to reign in spending as the cost-of-living crisis continues and reopening effects from the pandemic fade. The effect of inflation is very apparent in retail sales as consumers bought -2.6% lower volumes in September than in June of last year but have spent 8.1% more. Netherlands and Germany led the way with 1.3 and 0.9% month-on-month increases respectively, while France, Italy and Spain all saw more or less stable retail trade compared to last month. The outlook for retail remains bleak, with ongoing inflation eating into consumer spending power and uncertainty about the economy increasing. This has resulted in record-low consumer confidence over recent months. While that is not necessarily a strong predictor of household consumption, movements as pronounced as this have always been associated with a contraction in consumption. We expect consumption to contract in the current and coming quarter, followed by a very modest recovery. Read this article on THINK TagsRetail sales GDP Eurozone Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The EUR/USD Pair Is Showing A Potential For Bearish Drop

European Central Bank's meeting minutes point to recession fears to some extent. ING says a pause can happen

ING Economics ING Economics 24.11.2022 16:05
At first glance, the minutes of the European Central Bank's October meeting do not point to a pivot any time soon. However, reading between the lines, there seem to be growing recession concerns, at least with some members, which could lead to a pause in the hiking cycle in the coming months   The just-released minutes of the ECB’s October meeting underline the ECB’s determination to continue hiking interest rates, while at the same time coping with high uncertainty and growing concerns about the severity of the looming recession. Here are the main takeaways from the minutes: Shallow recession not enough to bring down inflation. There was a discussion on the potential severity of a looming recession, with a common view that a shallow recession would not be enough to bring down inflation. The ECB discussed possible channels through which a shallow recession could become a deeper and longer recession. Interestingly, and despite earlier credit crunches, the ECB did not see the banking sector as a potential channel but rather the housing market and eventually the labour market. “It was argued that, in the event of a shallow recession, the Governing Council should continue normalising and tightening monetary policy, whereas it might want to pause if there was a prolonged and deep recession, which would be likely to curb inflation to a larger extent.” Fiscal policy. The ECB’s view on fiscal stimulus and its impact on the economy was a bit ambiguous, seeing “a risk that fiscal compensation packages would turn out to be bigger than warranted”. Longer-term inflation. Remarkably, there was a common view that most measures of longer-term inflation expectations stood at around 2%. Remarkable as this would take away the necessity to move monetary policy into restrictive territory. Debate on neutral level of policy rate. It remains unclear what the ECB has in mind as a neutral level for interest rates. In some paragraphs, it is said that a “neutral level” should be reached swiftly, while in other paragraphs, the entire concept of a neutral or terminal interest rate is debunked. On the size of the rate hike. Some ECB members argued in favour of a 50bp rate hike but the large majority favoured the 75bp option. Tail wagging the dog? One argument to go for a 75bp rate hike was the fact that financial market participants had also priced in such a hike. “It was argued that falling short of these market expectations would imply an unwelcome loosening impulse, potentially undermining confidence in the Governing Council’s commitment to price stability.” Nothing on pivot. At least according to the minutes, there hadn’t been a discussion on potentially slowing down the pace of rate hikes or starting quantitative easing. All in all, there were only some signs between the lines that the ECB could slow down the pace of rate hikes at the December meeting. What's next for the ECB? While the October decision was very uncontroversial and supported by a large majority, recent comments by ECB officials suggest that the discussion at the December meeting will be much more heated and controversial. In fact, the voices of the doves have again become louder, while the hawks seem to be prepared to slow down the pace of rate hikes. Data releases and the forecasts presented at the December meeting will have something for both: a further increase in headline inflation and no further weakening of the economy but also very likely inflation coming down significantly in 2024 and 2025. As a consequence, we currently expect the ECB to hike rates by 50bp in December and by another 25bp in February. The big question and probably also the big bargain between doves and hawks will be around quantitative tightening (QT) or in other words, the shrinking of the ECB’s balance sheet. Earlier and more significant QT could be the bargaining chip for an end to rate hikes. We expect the ECB to announce a gradual reduction of the reinvestments of its bond holdings under the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) at the December meeting, with the aim to stop the reinvestments by end-2023. The minutes of the ECB's October meeting have some tentative signs that concerns of a more severe recession are growing, at least with some ECB members. This note of caution combined with long-term inflation expectations that are still close to 2% could allow the ECB to at least move towards a pause in its rate hike cycle soon. Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The Euro May Gradually Climb To The Target Level

European inflation shrank by 0.6%. ING hints at a 50bp rate hike in December

ING Economics ING Economics 30.11.2022 11:59
Inflation dropped more than expected from 10.6 to 10% in November, mainly on energy price developments. Core inflation remained stable at 5% though. While we’re far from out of the woods yet, it does look like the current economic environment could push the European Central Bank to a smaller 50bp hike next month We were due some good news. The eurozone inflation rate ticked down after a few nasty upside surprises. Energy inflation has been the most important driver of the decline going from 41.5 to 34.9%. Food inflation continues to trend up, while core inflation was stable at 5%. This is still far too high, but tentative signs that we’re at or close to a peak are increasing. Read next: Forex Market: The Inflation Print Will Be Key For The Polish Zloty (PLN)| FXMAG.COM Whether this is the peak in inflation remains to be seen. Another episode in the energy crisis could easily push inflation back up again and core inflation usually proves to be sticky after a supply shock. The question is how relevant the talk about a peak in annual inflation actually is. We think it is far more relevant to focus on month-on-month developments as base effects will become significant in the coming months. Using our own seasonal adjustment, we see that monthly inflation was slightly negative for the first time since April and that food inflation is the largest contributor to monthly headline inflation at the moment. We also think the focus should be more on what level inflation will trend down to, as opposed to whether this is the peak or not. The big question, therefore, is how core inflation is going to move in the coming months. Don’t expect a miracle just yet, core inflation tends to adjust slowly to energy shocks and a lot of the higher costs have not yet been priced through to the consumer. The tricky thing here is that the effects of the previous supply shock – the pandemic – are also still playing into the numbers. Large inventory increases at retail stores are the result of falling demand for goods and restocking as supply problems improved. That adds some disinflationary pressures for the months ahead. Overall, more volatility in core inflation can be expected as the effects of two massive supply shocks play out but we don’t expect a quick drop in core inflation anytime soon. For the ECB though, tentative signs of inflation peaking are mounting, evidence of a wage-price spiral continues to remain absent and the environment is turning recessionary. In our view, that is likely to sway the ECB from 75 basis point hikes to a smaller hike of 50 basis point move in December. Read this article on THINK
In Italy Private Investment Should Remain A Positive Growth Driver In 2023

Italy: Consumer headline inflation hits 11.8% year-on-year amounting to October print

ING Economics ING Economics 30.11.2022 13:16
Headline inflation in Italy stabilised in November, still very much driven by goods, with the energy component starting to reflect an improving base effect. Beware core inflation, though, as its persistence will likely slow down the decline in headline inflation over the first part of 2023 Consumer headline inflation came in at 11.8% year-on-year in November, unchanged from October, and in line with our forecasts. This results from a decline in the non-regulated energy component, of fresh food and transport services, and an acceleration of regulated energy goods, transformed food, other goods and recreational and cultural services. The wide gap between goods inflation (at 17.5% YoY) and services inflation (at 3.8% YoY) remains stable from October. The harmonised HICP measure was also stable at 12.5% YoY. Favourable base effects in energy, but the core measure continues to inch up We are at a time of the year when the base effect starts to be favourable. This was the case with aggregated energy goods, where inflation declined to 67.3% in November from 71.1% in October. However, this is not the case with underlying inflation, which accelerated to 5.7% (from 5.3% in October) signalling that the pass-through of past energy inflation pressures is not over yet. As wage dynamics have so far remained almost unaffected (1.2% YoY in September is the latest reading), risks of further gains in the core component over the next few months should not be dismissed. Peak possibly close, but pace of decline still uncertain Looking ahead, we suspect that the energy component might have reached its peak, but will remain exposed to the vagaries of administrative decisions. For instance, the current €0.30 rebate on fuels will be reduced to €0.18 from December, which will have an impact on the headline measure. More encouragingly, in October producer price inflation recorded a clear deceleration to 28% YoY from 41.7% in September, suggesting that price pressures in the pipeline started to finally cool down. November business surveys seem to confirm this, with the selling price component (over the next three months) declining both in manufacturing and services. This does not mean that the headline peak has now passed. We currently project inflation to remain at the current level into December, and to start a gradual decline thereafter as the deceleration in the energy component should outweigh the inertia in the core measure. For the time being, we are sticking with our average yearly inflation forecast at 8.2% in 2022 and 6.7% in 2023.   Read this article on THINK TagsItaly Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The latest dollar selloff is a hint that the US dollar has certainly peaked this year, and next year will be, (...) , a year of softening for the greenback

There are quite strong indications that Fed and ECB will go for 50bp rate hikes

ING Economics ING Economics 01.12.2022 15:16
Fed Chair Powell has a clear ambition to hike by 50bp in December, and likely the same in February 2023, and maybe more. Given that, and a likely terminal funds rate of at least 5%, the drift lower in the US 10yr yield looks anomalous. Then again, year end can be like that. A move back above 4% still looks probable – it just might take a bit longer to achieve A hawkish hike (even if smaller) now needed to help re-tighten conditions If Chair Powell wanted to use yesterday’s speech to help re-tighten financial conditions, then he won’t be very happy with the impact market reaction. Market rates have fallen, credit spreads are tighter and effectively we’ve gone “risk on”. Financial conditions started out at about 0.6 of a standard deviation tight versus normal pre-Powell. They are now at closer to 0.5 of a standard deviation tight. We think it needs to be a full standard deviation tight, to be at least somewhat statistically meaningful. The reason we are not tighter is (mostly) lower market rates and tighter credit spreads. The US 10yr is now down to 3.7%, more than 50bp below the peak seen at end-October / early-November. Some 8bp of that has come in the wake of Chair Powell’s speech today. At 3.7%, the 10yr yield is some 130bp below the discounted terminal rate of 5%. That’s quite a spread. We think it’s far too wide. It’s telling us one of two things: (1) If the Fed hits 5%, then it’s not sustainable and a cut is coming really soon after that, or (2) The Fed will in fact not hit 5% at all, and they are done in December. The flip from 22 to 23 does not magically rid us of inflation risks Our view? We think the Fed does hit 5% (in February), and that the 10yr should be comfortably back above 4% in anticipation of that. This can happen soon, but could also morph into a turn of the year call, as we're now in this weird end of year swing where anything can happen. There can be some net buying going on as investors square books into year end, often buying back duration that had been shorted during the year. The first quarter of 2023 will bring the realization that the flip from 22 to 23 does not magically rid us of inflation risks that the Fed will feel emboldened to continue to address. Market rates are not fully reflecting this; but they will. Real Treasury yields are positive across the curve, the Fed will want to avoid an early drop Source: Refinitiv, ING EUR inflation solidifies expectations for a 50bp hike The eurozone flash CPI sees inflation having decelerated to 10% in November versus expectations of only a moderate slowing to 10.4% had surprisingly little effect on the market. Our economists also see this report having strengthened the case for a 50bp hike in December after the series of 75bp over the past meetings, but the market has been leaning to a slowed pace already in the wake of the first country readings at the start of the week, reducing the discount to only slightly more than 20% for still another larger 75bp hike after around 50% previously. The more relevant core measure of inflation remains at a painfully elevated 5% Yet away from the energy price-induced, headline-grabbing drop to 10%, the more relevant core measure of inflation has not budged and remains at a painfully elevated 5% year over year, in line with the consensus. The European Central Bank has rightly shifted the focus of the policy debate to underlying inflation and its persistence, being well aware that drops in the volatile headline can lead to false dawns. The bond rally has limited - but not reversed - ECB and Fed hike expectations Source: Refinitiv, ING   The ECB’s Isabel Schnabel has been the most vocal about still worrying underlying trends in her latest speech last week. Chief Economist Lane has employed a more measured tone in his latest expansive blog, though, warning not to read too much into current measures of underlying inflation. In particular he cautioned that the staggered adjustment of wages to the increase in the cost of living can play out over several years, but shouldn’t automatically signal a change in overall wage dynamics, i.e. the onset of a much feared wage-price spiral. The ECB should still have qualms about letting financial conditions ease too much, too early That the ECB isn’t done raising rates is clear. While it is widely accepted that the ECB will have to move into restrictive territory is also widely accepted, the latest inflation data has taken the edge off calls for more larger pre-emptive hiking. This also means that the tailwind for a further curve flattening dynamic is fading, but it should not distract from the prospect of rates possibly staying higher for longer. Similar to the Fed, the ECB should still have qualms about letting financial conditions ease too much, too early in its battle with inflation.   Today's events and market view US rates should remain in the driving seat given the busy data slate and the mixed signals that come from them. Yesterday's US GDP revisions for instance have pointed to a more resilient underlying demand, while last night’s Fed Beige Book hinted at slowing price pressures. Prices will remain in focus with today’s PCE deflator. That could be interesting as it is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and does not always match what happens in core CPI. Today’s ISM manufacturing could drift just below the break-even 50 level, while the employment component, which markets will draw on ahead of tomorrow’s jobs data, is seen stable at 50. Even after Fed Chair Powell’s speech yesterday, some attention should still fall on Fed speakers in the final days ahead of the pre-meeting black out period. Today will see appearances of the Fed’s Logan, Bowman and Barr.   In secondary markets France and Spain will auction their final bonds for the year. Read this article on THINK TagsRates Daily Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
John Hardy (Saxo Bank): I don’t think any single inflation print will unsettle the BoE here, just look at the huge recovery in sterling from the lows

John Hardy (Saxo Bank): I don’t think any single inflation print will unsettle the BoE here, just look at the huge recovery in sterling from the lows

John Hardy John Hardy 13.12.2022 14:44
Stocks go up as the US inflation print surprises market participants, but we cannot forget about other important events this week, which are three key decision of three key central banks. Even if today's US infation print seems to cement the 50bp rate hike, UK economy is still ahead of CPI inflation print. In the same time it's still not sure which variant European Central Bank is going to choose on Thursday and, what's event more important, what's beyond. Today, we're delighted to hear from John Hardy, Head of FX Strategy at Saxo Bank. BoE is expected to hike the rate by 50bp on Thursday, but the day before CPI inflation data is published - would you expect a hawkich pivot if CPI bounces back above November print? John Hardy, Head of FX Strategy at Saxo Bank: BoE: I don’t think any single inflation print will unsettle the BoE here, just look at the huge recovery in sterling from the lows, which will help stabilize inflation relative to other countries just as sterling weakness was making the situation worse until recently. Already in early November, the BoE were saying that they were unlikely to take the rate as high as the market expects next year, so given the further encouragement from a strongly recovering sterling and lower natural gas and petrol prices, I don’t expect fireworks in the guidance even if inflation proves a bit hotter then expected. Read next: An incoming cold spell in the US has seen the cost of US gas surge 27% during the past three trading session while (...) Dutch TTF gas contracts remain below €150| FXMAG.COM December Fed decision seems to be sealed, but on Friday UMich and PPI data gloomed the picture of the US Economy a little bit. Are you of the opinion Fed will permanently shift to 50bp hikes until the end of cycle? Fed: The Fed will hike by 50 basis points on Wednesday and would likely hike in smaller 25-basis point increments thereafter unless inflationary pressures re-emerge (something the market is not at all anticipating and would take considerable time to develop anyway – a “slower fall” in inflation than expected is the worst case scenario barring new shocks).  For the FOMC meeting, the market is more looking at where the Fed forecasts its policy rate will be at the end of 2023 than at the size of the hikes, as well as where the Fed expects growth/inflation/employment data will be next year for a sense of how much economic weakness would be required for the Fed to stop hiking and eventually cut. Still, the market has a strong forward view on steeply falling inflation and growth and will react the most to incoming data. That view on incoming data has the already expecting rate cuts from the Fed starting as early as Q4 of next year, which suggests it is willing to ignore much of what the Fed says if the guidance is intended for anything beyond the next two or three meetings. Read next: The handling and demise of FTX have ultimately set the ecosystem's facilitative regulatory agenda and adoption efforts back | FXMAG.COM ECB decides on interest rate this week - what do you expect from the Bank this time? When could the cycle come to an end? ECB: The ECB is set to hike 50 basis points, which will take the deposit rate to 2.00%. Whether they hike another 50 basis points or step down to 25 basis point hikes thereafter is the question. Europe is already in recession and expected to be in recession next year. I don’t expect much above 2.50% for this cycle from the ECB for the peak policy rate – getting higher would likely require a reacceleration of inflationary pressures and its too early for that to unfold in the near future, when a drop-off in inflation is on course.

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