earnings season

FXMAG.COM: Could you please share your thoughts on Tesla earnings after they're released?

After the release of the financial report, TSLA shares dropped by about 10%

Serhii Zhdanov (EXMO.COM): After the release of the financial report, TSLA shares dropped by about 10%. A decrease in margins was caused by the desperate price battle launched by the company in an effort to maintain high sales rates. Tesla has repeatedly reduced the prices of its cars in the USA, China, and Germany. Currently, Tesla is still trying to conquer the market by prioritising revenue over profit. As a result, TSLA's revenue rose 24% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2023. However, its profit shrank, causing the EBITDA margin and the operating margin to drop from nearly 27% to 18.3% and to 11%. Elon Musk emphasised that the company strives to continue the maximum possible production of cars and noted that Tesla still remains one of the most profitable companies in the industry. The company expects a gradua

At The Close On The New York Stock Exchange Indices Closed Mixed

Popular Stocks Like MSFT, APPL And MSFT Will Publish Their Earnings Shortly. How Will Indices (e.g. SPX) React?

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 13.04.2022 15:41
Stocks fluctuated following their recent decline on Tuesday and the S&P 500 index closed slightly below the 4,400 level. Is this still just a downward correction? The S&P 500 index lost 0.34% on Tuesday following its Monday’s decline of 1.7%. There is still a lot of uncertainty concerning the Ukraine conflict and Fed’s monetary policy tightening plans. On Monday it led to a more pronounced profit-taking action. However, the coming quarterly earnings releases season may be a positive factor in the near term. This morning the broad stock market is expected virtually flat following the Producer Price Index release. The nearest important resistance level is now at around 4,475-4,500, marked by the recent support level and Monday’s daily gap down. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,350-4,400. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its March rally, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract – Short-Term Consolidation Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. Recently it broke below the 4,400 level and our profitable long position was closed at the stop-loss (take-profit) level of 4,440. Overall, we gained 100 points on that trade in a little less than two months’ time (it was opened on Feb. 22 at 4,340 level). So now we will wait for another profit opportunity. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.1% lower following the producer inflation number release. Stocks will likely extend their consolidation. For now it looks like a relatively flat correction within a short-term downtrend. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index trades within a short-term consolidation following the recent declines. Our profitable long position was closed at the 4,440 level (a gain of 100 points from the Feb. 22 opening). Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Weekly analysis on Bitcoin.  Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/285670

French Election: Dear Le Pen And Macron, Which Way The Markets Will Go? DAX (GER 40) Trades Ca. 1% Lower!, IBEX35 Is Pausing, S&P 500 Trades Ca. 1% Higher!? (NAS 100) NASDAQ Full Of Earnings-Publishers!

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 19.04.2022 14:51
Volatility is the key word of markets today. There are not many important indicators printed, but geopolitics influence markets noticeably. Crude Oil inventories is released today and according to Investing.com it’s predicted, that if Russian gas is banned immediately by the EU, the price could rise to $185! DAX (GER40) - Volkswagen, Continental And BMW Impress! Three automotive companies are doing really, really well today as all of them gained above 1% over last 24 hours. What to come? We can somehow predict that Daimler will go up in the “gainers ranking” as there’s another car teased by Mercedes recently. #GIMSNEWS | @MercedesBenz is consolidating its position among luxury EVs manufacturers. This is the #EQS SUV, which is 5.125 m long and can accommodate up to 7 passengers. Engine outputs go from 265 to 400 kW (360 to 544 PS) and the WLTP range is announced from 507 to 660 km. pic.twitter.com/lKN3zryfzG — Geneva International Motor Show (@GimsSwiss) April 19, 2022 As we see DAX has been really volatile today losing and adding much throughout the day. However, despite the two noticeable moves the price was gradually going up for last two hours. We will see what will the next part of French election and the Russia-Ukraine bring to the state of this well-known index, where companies like Adidas, Daimler, BMW and Deutsche Bank (which has decreased last week) are included. IBEX35 – We’re Back! Ahead Of French Election – Emanuel Macron vs. Marine LePen! The Spanish index has been below-the-line for some today, but as the chart show it’s back in the game trading near 0% level. What’s next? As we wrote before, the second round of French election is coming. France decides where to go in the near future on April 24th so watch markets next week! Article on Crypto: Altcoins Showing Promising Growth - Take a Look at Solana (SOL), POLKADOT (DOT) and SHIBA INU (SHIB-USD)| FXMAG.COM What's up Twitter Stock Price (TWTR)? Twitter is one of the most trending topics recently. All the commentaries of Elon Musk has influenced the price of the stock. S&P 500 Trades Ca. 1% Higher! Let’s go NASDAQ! Fifty Third (FITB) has published its earnings already and they’re quite similar to the forecast of Investing.com, so don’t expect significant fluctuations. If someone ask me about volatility-maker which for now, I would point the Iridium (IRDM) and Lockheed Martin (LMT) which earnings reports exceeded or subceeded the expectations. So the earnings probably helped the index to open quite higher. Tomorrow is the day as well - Tesla (TSLA) and Procter&Gamble will release their earnings! What Will Earnings Bring On? J&J Done, Awaiting Netflix (NFLX) And IBM! There are two popular and major brands publishing their Q1 reports today. Netflix (NFLX) banned access to its platform in Russia, so we may predict that many subscribers are not there anymore. IBM serves many IT solutions around the world and as the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated and became a “no.1 market mover”, it’s possible the company’s income had changed amid ongoing war. However, we’ll have to wait some time for the news about these two companies and the outlook for indices as earnings of IBM and NFLX are released after market hours. Let’s stay tuned! Read next: (UKOIL) Brent Crude Oil Spikes to Highest Price For April, (NGAS) Natural Gas Hitting Pre-2008 Prices, Cotton Planting Has Begun Johnson&Johnson (J&J) Is Here For US Indices Johnson&Johnson, yes, that company you know from your children’s bathub published their earnings and according to Investing.com Earnings Calendar the results are quite similar as the predictions were so we may suppose the market has already discounted this one.
Ether (ETH), (BTC) Bitcoin, LUNA, NFT - They All Plunges! Crypto Market Crash Aka "Cryptogeddon" | Conotoxia

Netflix Crashing!? Netflix Stock Price (NFLX) Falls More Than 35%? Subscribers Fled!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 20.04.2022 21:27
Since the market opened this morning Netflix stock price has fallen by more than 35%, the price fall came shortly after the company announced it had lost more than 200 000 subscribers in the first quarter of 2022 and are forecasting losing a further 2 000 000 subscribers in the coming quarter. The drop in value comes hand-in-hand with investor sentiment and the post-covid world. In addition, subscribers are seeming to be rethinking their subscription commitments to the streaming service. Related article: Japanese Yen (JPY) Weakens Against The Dollar, USD/CAD Stable And The Inevitable Strengthening Of The USD, IMF/World Bank Events The current market sentiment, Elon Musk and other factors causing Netflix stock price to dive. The price of Netflix’s stock has also been affected by more competitors entering the market, the loss of 700 000 Russian subscribers as a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, consumer budget tightening as a result of the current market conditions and Elon Musk’s opinion on Netflix’s shares being affected by the ‘woke mind virus’. Related article: Monetary Policy Drives EUR/USD, The Future of the EUR/GBP Awaits the Bank Of England's Speech - Good Morning Forex| FXMAG.COM Given the forecast for the next quarter, the stock price of streaming service is unlikely to see any large increases anytime soon. Netflix Price Chart Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, Theguardian.com, nypost.com
The Swing Overview - Week 16 2022

The Swing Overview - Week 16 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 22.04.2022 15:00
The Swing Overview - Week 16 Jerome Powell confirmed that the Fed will be aggressive in fighting the inflation and confirmed tighter interest rate hikes starting in May. Equity indices fell strongly after this news. Inflation in the euro area reached a record high of 7.4% in March. Despite this news, the euro continued to weaken. The sell-off also continued in the Japanese yen, which is the weakest against the US dollar in last 20 years.  The USD index strengthens along with US bond yields Fed chief Jerome Powell said on Thursday that the Fed could raise interest rates by 0.50% in May. The Fed could continue its aggressive pace of rate hikes in the coming months of this year. US 10-year bond yields have responded to this news by strengthening further and have already reached 2.94%. The US dollar has also benefited from this development and has already surpassed the value 100 and continues to move in an uptrend. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart Earnings season is underway in equities Rising interest rates continue to weigh on equity indices, which gave back gains from the first half of the last week and weakened significantly on Thursday following the Fed’s information on the aggressive pace of interest rate hikes.   In addition, the earnings season, which is in full swing, is weighing on index movements. For example, Netflix and Tesla reported results last week.   While Netflix unpleasantly surprised by reducing the number of subscribers by 200,000 in 1Q 2022 and the company's shares fell by 35% in the wake of the news, Tesla, on the other hand, exceeded analysts' expectations and the stock gained more than 10% after the results were announced. Tesla has thus shown that it has been able to cope with the supply chain problems and higher subcontracting prices that are plaguing the entire automotive sector much better than its competitors.   The decline in Netflix subscribers can be explained by people starting to save more in an environment of rising prices. Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart The SP 500 index continues to undergo a downward correction, which is shown on the H4 chart. The price has reached the resistance level at 4,514-4,520. The price continues to move below the SMA 100 moving average (blue line) on the daily chart which indicates bearish sentiment.  The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 4,514 - 4,520. The next resistance is around 4,583 - 4,600. The support is at 4,360 - 4,365.   The German DAX index The DAX is also undergoing a correction and the last candlestick on the daily chart is a bearish pin bar which suggests that the index could fall further. Figure 3: The German DAX index on H4 and daily chart This index is also below the SMA 100 on the daily chart, confirming the bearish sentiment. The price has reached a support according to the H4 chart, which is at 14,340 - 14,370. However, this is very likely to be overcome quickly. The next support is 13 910 - 14 000. The nearest resistance is 14 592 - 14 632.   The DAX is affected by the French presidential election that is going to happen on Sunday April 24, 2022. According to the latest polls, Macron is leading over Le Pen and if the election turns out like this, it should not have a significant impact on the markets. However, if Marine Le Pen wins in a surprise victory, it can be very negative news for the French economy and would weigh on the DAX index as well.   The euro remains in a downtrend The Fed's hawkish policy and the ECB's dovish rhetoric at its meeting on Thursday April 14, 2022, which showed that the ECB is not planning to raise rates in the short term, put further pressure on the European currency. The French presidential election and, of course, the ongoing war in Ukraine are also causing uncertainty.  Figure 4: The EURUSD on the H4 and daily charts. The inflation data was reported last week, which came in at 7.4% on year-on-year basis. The previous month inflation was 5.9%. This rise in inflation caused the euro to strengthen briefly to the resistance level at 1.0930 - 1.0950. However, there was then a rapid decline from this level following the Fed's reports of a quick tightening in the economy. A support is at 1.0760 - 1.0780.   The sell-off in the Japanese yen is not over The Japanese yen is also under pressure. The US dollar has already reached 20-year highs against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY) and it looks like the yen's weakening against the US dollar could continue. This is because the Bank of Japan has the most accommodative monetary policy of any major central bank and continues to support the economy while the Fed will aggressively tighten the economy. Thus, this fundamental suggests that a reversal in the USD/JPY pair should not happen anytime soon. Figure 5: The USDJPY on the monthly chart In terms of technical analysis, the USD/JPY price broke through the strong resistance band around the price of 126.00 seen on the monthly chart. The currency pair thus has room to grow further up to the resistance, which is in the area near 135 yens per dollar.  
What Does Inflation Rates We Got To Know Mean To Central Banks?

What Does Inflation Rates We Got To Know Mean To Central Banks?

Purple Trading Purple Trading 15.07.2022 13:36
The Swing Overview – Week 28 2022 This week's new record inflation readings sent a clear message to central bankers. Further interest rate hikes must be faster than before. The first of the big banks to take this challenge seriously was the Bank of Canada, which literally shocked the markets with an unprecedented rate hike of a full 1%. This is obviously not good for stocks, which weakened again in the past week. The euro also stumbled and has already fallen below parity with the usd. Uncertainty, on the other hand, favours the US dollar, which has reached new record highs.   Macroeconomic data The data from the US labour market, the so-called NFP, beat expectations, as the US economy created 372 thousand new jobs in June (the expectation was 268 thousand) and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. But on the other hand, unemployment claims continued to rise, reaching 244k last week, the 7th week in a row of increase.   But the crucial news was the inflation data for June. It exceeded expectations and reached a new record of 9.1% on year-on-year basis, the highest value since 1981. Inflation rose by 1.3% on month-on-month basis. Energy prices, which rose by 41.6%, had a major impact on inflation. Declines in commodity prices, such as oil, have not yet influenced June inflation, which may be some positive news. Core inflation excluding food and energy prices rose by 5.9%, down from 6% in May.   The value of inflation was a shock to the markets and the dollar strengthened sharply. We can see this in the dollar index, which has already surpassed 109. We will see how the Fed, which will be deciding on interest rates in less than two weeks, will react to this development. A rate hike of 0.75% is very likely and the question is whether even such an increase will be enough for the markets. Meanwhile, there has been an inversion on the yield curve on US bonds. This means that yields on 2-year bonds are higher than those on 10-year bonds. This is one of the signals of a recession. Figure 1: The US Treasury yield curve on the monthly chart and the USD index on the daily chart   The SP 500 Index Apart from macroeconomic indicators, the ongoing earnings season will also influence the performance of the indices this month. Among the major banks, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley reported results this week. Both banks reported earnings, but they were below investor expectations. The impact of more expensive funding sources that banks need to finance their activities is probably starting to show.   We must also be interested in the data in China, which, due to the size of the Chinese economy, has an impact on the movement of global indices. 2Q GDP in China was 0.4% on year-on-year basis, a significant drop from the previous quarter (4.8%). Strict lockdowns against new COVID-19 outbreaks had an impact on economic situation in the country. Figure 2: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart The threat of a recession is seeping into the SP 500 index with another decline, which stalled last week at the support level, which according to the H4 is in the 3,740-3,750 range. The next support is 3,640 - 3,670.  The nearest resistance is 3,930 - 3,950. German DAX index The German ZEW sentiment, which shows expectations for the next 6 months, reached - 53.8. This is the lowest reading since 2011. Inflation in Germany reached 7.6% in June. This is lower than the previous month when inflation was 7.9%. Concerns about the global recession continue to affect the DAX index, which has tested significant supports. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart Strong support according to the daily chart is 12,443 - 12,500, which was tested again last week. We can take the moving averages EMA 50 and SMA 100 as a resistance. The nearest horizontal resistance is 12,950 - 13,000.   The euro broke parity with the dollar The euro fell below 1.00 on the pair with the dollar for the first time in 20 years, reaching a low of 0.9950 last week. Although the euro eventually closed above parity, so from a technical perspective it is not a valid break yet, the euro's weakening points to the headwinds the eurozone is facing: high inflation, weak growth, the threat in energy commodity supplies, the war in Ukraine. Figure 4: EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart Next week the ECB will be deciding on interest rates and it is obvious that there will be some rate hike. A modest increase of 0.25% has been announced. Taking into account the issues mentioned above, the motivation for the ECB to raise rates by a more significant step will not be very strong. The euro therefore remains under pressure and it is not impossible that a fall below parity will occur again in the near future.   The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 1.008 - 1.012. A support is the last low, which is at 0.9950 - 0.9960.   Bank of Canada has pulled out the anti-inflation bazooka Analysts had expected the Bank of Canada to raise rates by 0.75%. Instead, the central bank shocked markets with an unprecedented increase by a full 1%, the highest rate hike in 24 years. The central bank did so in response to inflation, which is the highest in Canada in 40 years. With this jump in rates, the bank is trying to prevent uncontrolled price increases.   The reaction of the Canadian dollar has been interesting. It strengthened significantly immediately after the announcement. However, then it began to weaken sharply. This may be because investors now expect the US Fed to resort to a similarly sharp rate hike. Figure 5: USD/CAD on H4 and daily chart Another reason may be the decline in oil prices, which the Canadian dollar is correlated with, as Canada is a major oil producer. The oil is weakening due to fears of a drop in demand that would accompany an economic recession. Figure 6: Oil on the H4 and daily charts Oil is currently in a downtrend. However, it has reached a support value, which is in the area near $94 per barrel. The support has already been broken, but on the daily chart oil closed above this value. Therefore, it is not a valid break yet.  
Stitch Fix (SFIX) Q4 Earnings Results Missed Investor Expectations After Difficult Quarter

Stitch Fix (SFIX) Q4 Earnings Results Missed Investor Expectations After Difficult Quarter

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.09.2022 12:53
Summary: SFIX reported lower-than-expected sales for Q4. High inflation and deteriorating retail environment. SFIX share price down after missing Q4 earnings expectations After the company reported lower-than-expected sales for the current quarter, offered weaker-than-expected sales guidance, and reported a decline in active clients, shares declined in after-hours trading. Revenue for the fourth quarter of Stitch Fix came to $481.9 million, falling shy of the Street's forecast of $489.4 million. The full-year sales forecast was trimmed to a range of $1.76 billion to $1.86 billion, while the first-quarter revenue projection was cut to $455 million to $465 million. $2.1 billion was the forecast on Wall Street. Elizabeth Spaulding, SFIX CEO wrote in the earnings release, “Today’s macroeconomic environment and its impact on retail spending has been a challenge to navigate, but we remain committed to working through our transformation and returning to profitability.” Stitch Fix shares have declined -75% year-to-date. Spaulding indicated during her address that they had faced an increasingly difficult fourth quarter, notably in June and July, due to the realities of high inflation levels and a deteriorating retail environment, which led to decreased discretionary spending in the garment industry. Because of a 9% year-over-year reduction in net active clients, which finished FY '22 at 3.8 million, Q4 net revenue fell 16% to $482 million. The quarter's adjusted EBITDA was negative $31.8 million. The company's CFO, Dan Jedda indicated during his address that SFIX had reported net revenue of $482 million, a 16% decrease from the previous year. This decline was caused by slowness in the volume of Fixes, which was largely offset by demand for Freestyle. In the wake of the financial report SFIX share price fell almost 10% in pre-market trading and 5.79% at close of market on September 20. SFIX Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, fool.com
JABIL (JBL) Stock Surged In The Wake Of Favourable Q4 Earnings Results

JABIL (JBL) Stock Surged In The Wake Of Favourable Q4 Earnings Results

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 27.09.2022 22:00
Summary: JBL beast market expectations for Q4 earnings results. Sales of diversified manufacturing increased 13%. JABIL (JBL) Q4 earnings report On Tuesday, contract manufacturer Jabil (JBL) easily surpassed Wall Street's expectations for the current quarter of its fiscal year. The announcement caused JBL stock to rise. The St. Petersburg, Florida-based business reported adjusted earnings of $2.34 per share on $9.03 billion in revenue for the three months ended August 31. Jabil was predicted to report earnings of $2.15 per share on sales of $8.39 billion by analysts surveyed by FactSet. Jabil's earnings increased by 63% year over year while its sales increased by 22%. Jabil forecast adjusted earnings of $2.20 per share on $9.3 billion in sales for the current quarter. On the midpoint of its guidance, that is based. Wall Street expected Jabil to report first-quarter fiscal earnings of $2.11 per share on sales of $8.93 billion. It generated $1.92 in profit per share on $8.57 billion in revenue during the same time last year. Jabil additionally disclosed plans to repurchase up to $1 billion worth of its stock. According to IBD MarketSmith charts, JBL stock has established a cup-and-handle foundation with a purchase point of 65.98. Electronics manufacturing services and diversified manufacturing services are Jabil's two business divisions. Equipment for 5G wireless, cloud computing, networking, data storage, industrial, and other applications is produced by the electronics manufacturing facility. The company's diverse production facility produces mobile, medical, automotive, and other gadgets. Sales of diversified manufacturing increased 13% while sales of electronics manufacturing increased 32% year over year at Jabil. According to IBD Stock Checkup, JBL stock is tied for first place out of 15 stocks in the electronics contract manufacturing business group. It gets a 98 out of 99 IBD Composite Rating. Regardless of industry sector, the Composite Rating compares a stock's main growth characteristics to all other companies. Out of 197 industry groups that IBD monitors, the electronics contract manufacturing industry group comes in at number 33. JBL stock is also included in IBD's list of Tech Leaders stocks. JBL Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, investors.com
Flow Token Grew 44%! Vitalik Buterin Tweets How To Anonymise NFT Using

Elon Musk To Go Through With Twitter (TWTR) Deal After All

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 05.10.2022 11:25
Summary: On Tuesday Musk renewed his offer to buy Twitter. TWTR share price jumped in the wake of the news. “X, the everything app” TWTR stock price jumped Elon Musk attempted to pull out of the high-profile transaction, but on Tuesday he renewed his offer to pay $44 billion for the social networking site Twitter. The Tesla entrepreneur suggested the price in a letter to Twitter that was sent on Monday to the Securities and Exchange Commission. The price is equal to the original valuation of $54.20 per share. Late on Tuesday, Mr. Musk finally spoke up about the deal, writing on Twitter, "Buying Twitter is an accelerant to inventing X, the everything app." The price of the social network's stock increased so dramatically when it was revealed that Elon Musk is trying to restart his acquisition of the company that runs it that the New York Stock Exchange twice had to temporarily halt trading, according to the Wall Street Journal. The "Flash Crash" of 2010 prompted the implementation of such pauses, which begin when stocks on major indexes change price by more than 5% in less than five minutes. On Tuesday, Twitter shares increased by at least 12% at various points as Elon Musk declared he would stick with his original $44 billion offer to buy the social media platform. After purchasing Twitter Inc., Elon Musk teased "X, the everything app." According to the billionaire's prior remarks, the service may resemble the popular Chinese app WeChat. Beyond a single-line tweet, Musk didn't offer much information. However, the CEO of Tesla Inc. has admitted to admiring the Tencent Holdings Ltd. app, which has evolved from a messaging service to a mini-internet used by more than a billion people from China users daily. He has expressed thoughts on improving Twitter, saying he wants it to be more like WeChat and TikTok, the popular video-sharing app owned by ByteDance Ltd. that has gained popularity in the US. He also drew comparisons to the so-called "super apps" that are popular in some parts of Asia and allow users to access a variety of services from communications to car summoning using a single smartphone application. TWTR Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com
OPEC+ To Reduce Oil Output By 2 Million Barrels Per Day

OPEC+ To Reduce Oil Output By 2 Million Barrels Per Day

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 06.10.2022 17:08
Summary: OPEC+ to reduce output to drive up prices. Energy costs have risen as a result of the supply shortage. OPEC+ decision to reduce oil output The biggest reduction in production since the epidemic began in 2020, OPEC+ said on Wednesday, October 5, that it will cut output by 2 million barrels per day (bpd). The decision was quickly criticized by the White House as "shortsighted," and the oil cartel was charged with "aligning with Russia." President Joe Biden's advice to refrain from taking such a dramatic measure has not been heeded by Saudi Arabia, which controls approximately one-third of OPEC's oil reserves and is seen as a US ally. In order to persuade the de facto ruler of the kingdom, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, to increase the number of barrels pumped, Biden visited the country in the Middle East three months ago. The output decrease is intended to raise oil prices back to the triple digits of dollars after a four-month decline. Oil prices have already risen to more than $90 a barrel as a result of anticipation of OPEC's decision this week. Saudi Arabia's move, which is probably motivated by politics and oil pricing equally, reminds the West who is in charge of this valuable resource and has caused the US to rethink its foreign policy goals, including sanctions against Venezuela. OPEC+ decision effects Due to underproduction by OPEC and its partners, the actual production reduction will be less than 2 million. The coalition fell short of its goals by 3.58 million barrels per day in August. In Nigeria, for instance, pipeline theft and vandalism caused oil production to reach a 32-year low. The true cuts will only amount to about 1 million bpd, according to Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman, and analysts estimate even smaller reductions, as reported by Reuters. Energy costs have risen as a result of the supply shortage, which has been made worse by Russia's involvement in the conflict in Ukraine. Biden used the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve earlier, in May, to control the rise in oil prices and, consequently, gasoline costs. He might have to turn to releasing more oil after the OPEC+ cuts. Crude Oil Nov ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com
Technical Outlook: The EUR/USD Bear Trend Will Be Confirmed And The GBP/USD Has Not Managed To Close Above

UK Average Earnings Index + Bonus Beats Market Expectations

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 11.10.2022 08:24
Summary: The UK average earnings index + bonus came in bullish/bearish. The GBP is predicted to avoid reaching parity with the USD but will continue to trade at historically low levels. UK Average Earnings beat market expectations For August 2022, the rate of UK Average Earnings Index + Bonuses was 6.0% and the rate for unemployment was 3.5%. The rates of growth in both total and regular pay are comparable, which has not been the case for a while. The market expectation for the UK average earnings index + bonus was set at 5.9%, the UK succeeded in beating the market's expectations for the month of August. The reading showed a higher than expected Average Earnings Invex and should be interpreted as bullish or positive for the pound. The Average Earnings Index tracks changes in the amount that the government and businesses are willing to pay for labor, including bonuses. The Average Earnings figure provides us with a good indicator of the growth in personal income for the particular month. UK Average Earnings effect on the economy Highlights from the most recent survey reveal that over the rest of the year and into early 2023, the pound is predicted to avoid reaching parity with the dollar but will continue to trade at historically low levels. The U.K. economy has been running out of workers, even as it slows considerably under the weight of the ongoing cost-of-living problem, according to figures released for the month of July. According to the Office for National Statistics, employment growth slowed significantly in the three months leading up to July as the labor pool dried up due to the summer's heat waves and the pandemic's aftereffects. However, now it seems that the UK economy is a little more well supported. Higher than expected data indicates that the Bank of England's tightening of monetary policy is having some sort of an impact on wages, which, however, are still growing too slowly to keep up with the still-rising annual inflation rate. The initial market reaction to the release of this data showed the pound sterling weaken against the EUR and the USD. Sources: investing.com, ons.gov.uk, poundsterlinglive.com
Let's have a look at 25 worst stocks of S&P 500 and Wall Street as a whole in 2022

NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock Price Dropped On Tuesday

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 11.10.2022 19:37
Summary: The Biden administration's decision to limit electronics exports to China last week. Citigroup reduced Nvidia's price objective by $38 to $210 per share. Nvidia (NVDA) share price drops due to biden administration Following the Biden administration's decision to limit electronics exports to China last week, Nvidia (NVDA) led chip stocks lower on Tuesday amid a flurry of analyst downgrades and broader sector repricing. Late last week, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) issued a warning regarding near-term revenue growth, and weakening PC and smartphone demand also put pressure on already-weak chipmakers. Additionally, President Joe Biden's decision to severely restrict the sale of equipment to China-based companies used in the production of advanced semiconductors gave further downside momentum. In the United States, Intel also suffered as a result of analysts at Wells Fargo lowering their price target on the chipmaker and noting a steep drop in near-term sales amid broader sector weakness. In contrast, Citigroup reduced Nvidia's price objective by $38 to $210 per share due to slowing growth rates in the market for cloud computing hardware. Nvidia shares fell 2.4% in early Tuesday trading to trade at $113.85 per share. The Biden administration announced further extensive restrictions on the sale of semiconductors and related equipment to China on Friday. Then, today, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its projection for global growth, hurting morale as well. And to top it all off, the Chinese government has decided to lock down major cities once more in an effort to stop the spread of COVID-19, which has recently caused supply chain issues. The new limits on high-end processor sales to China could notably hurt Nvidia. Although the administration had already ordered Nvidia to stop selling its top-tier data center GPUs to China back in late August, the administration's latest limitations on equipment sales to China last week only serve to further cement the two nations' technical separation. It's important to note that Nvidia estimated that the limits would affect around $400 million in revenue, or about 7% of projected revenue, if they were completely enforced. NVDA Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, thestreet.com, fool.com
Chart of the Week - Gold Miners vs Energy Producers - 20.04.2022

German CPI Inflation Data Met The Markets Expectations

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 13.10.2022 08:15
Summary: German CPY (YoY) CPI inflation data met market expectations. Looming european energy crisis. Initial market reactions. German CPI inflation data comes in at 10% Preliminary estimates showed that in September 2022, Germany's consumer price inflation spiked to 10 percent year-over-year, the highest level ever and significantly more than the 9.4 percent market projection. Following a worsening energy crisis in the biggest economy in Europe and ongoing supply chain disruptions, consumer prices have been rising. The German CPI inflation data was forecasted at 10% and came in at 10%, in addition the German CPI (MoM) data also met market expectations and remained equal to the previous months at 1.9%, this indicates that the largest European economy has not worsened despite fears. With the war in the Ukraine continuing, and the sanctions placed on Russia by the European Union, it is no secret that the European economies are facing problems, driven by a looming energy crisis. With winter approaching and a shortage of gas forecasted, prices have been rising. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate hawkish interest rate hiking cycle is showing no signs of slowing down, Inflation data from Europe's largest economy tends to be a clear indication of the performance of the rest of the European Economies. In the wake of the previous German CPI inflation data release, separate statistics revealed that previously, consumer and business expectations for greater inflation and a worsening financial situation caused the euro zone's economic mood to decline significantly and more than anticipated. The effect of the CPI Inflation Data on the Markets As CPI inflation continues to rise, consumer confidence continues to fall, the actual figures set up a strong case for the European Central Bank to continue on their interest rate hiking cycle path. The initial effect of the released data caused the EUR/USD to strengthen slightly, the EUR/GBP had the same effect, strengthening as the German Inflation rate remained high, yet stable. Sources: investing.com, reuters.com, dailyfx.com
Both The US CPI & Core CPI Inflation Beat Market’s Forecasted Figures

Both The US CPI & Core CPI Inflation Beat Market’s Forecasted Figures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 13.10.2022 15:19
Summary: US CPI inflation beat market expectations. US Core CPI inflation beat market expectations. Initial market reaction. US CPI & Core CPI Inflation beat market expectations After breaking out last week, the US dollar is maintaining its recent highs. The primary US catalyst for this week is the release of CPI data today. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the CPI is anticipated to have risen by 8.1% in September compared to the same month a year prior, which is only slightly less than the 8.3% annual increase seen in August. The actual US CPI inflation (YoY) came in at 8.2%, beating market expectations. For the White House and legislative Democrats, the continued high inflation has been a major political concern, overshadowing the coronavirus pandemic's quick recovery and the creation of millions of jobs since Joe Biden took office. The Core CPI is anticipated to rise for a second consecutive month, with the rate rising to 6.5% in September from 6.3% in August. Additionally, the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows a higher path for US interest rates, which could fuel anticipation for another 75bp Fed rate hike. The actual US Core CPI inflation (MoM) came in at 6.6%, also beating market expectations. Effect on the markets The market will probably jerk in either direction after the September CPI report is released. The bar remains very high to change the perception surrounding a 75 basis point rate hike from the FOMC in November, despite the possibility of volatility across asset classes. The Federal Reserve may face pressure to maintain its approach to battling inflation if the core CPI increases once again, according to the minutes from the September meeting that revealed “many participants emphasized that the cost of taking too little action to bring down inflation likely outweighed the cost of taking too much action.” The initial reaction from the EUR/USD was bearish, USD/JPY was bullish as the dollar strengthened in the wake of the news, the S&P500 also jumped and Bitcoin remained on a downward trend. Sources: investing.com, financialtimes.com, finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com

Dow Jones Increased Overnight, GBP Could Rally If UK Leadership Changed

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 19.10.2022 11:27
Summary: Dow Jones futures all increased overnight as investors focused on Netflix (NFLX). The near-term outlook for the pound has significantly improved. Dow Jones Index Rally The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones futures all increased overnight as investors focused on Netflix (NFLX) subscriber growth and anticipated Tesla earnings. The effort at a stock market rally extended advances on Tuesday, but the session ended well below highs. Although the market rise is still going strong, nothing yet has been proven. Investors should exercise caution and pay great attention. In Q3, Netflix's subscriber growth was substantially stronger than anticipated, and the leader in streaming TV is optimistic about Q4 subscribers. Earnings also exceeded expectations. The rise in Netflix's shares suggested a breakout. Overnight, Roku (ROKU) and Disney (DIS) both increased. In comparison to fair value, Dow Jones futures gained 0.6%, with DIS stock contributing a slight gain. Futures for the S&P 500 rose 0.7%. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.4%. United Airlines and NFLX stock both make up the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. DJI Price Chart GBP could rally in the wake of UK leadership change The near-term outlook for the pound has significantly improved, according to foreign exchange strategists at BMO Capital, and more gains are possible if the UK leadership is changed in the next two weeks. They claim that such a development is very plausible. The call follows the dramatic about-face in UK fiscal policy that newly-installed Chancellor Jeremy Hunt revealed. In order to fully restore market confidence in the UK government and finances, Hunt undid all of his predecessor's tax cuts. This was followed by a decline in UK gilt yields and a rise in the value of the pound. The reversal was unavoidable given that the world markets recoiled at the generosity of the new prime minister Liz Truss' economic plans, which called for large tax cuts that would be paid for by borrowing.
The Markets Still Hope That The Fed May Consider Softer Decision

Eurozone CPI Inflation Came in Lower Than Expected

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 19.10.2022 13:11
Summary:  Eurozone CPI inflation came in lower than expected. CPI inflation drops for the first time since May 2022. Initial market reactions. The Eurozone CPI inflation  The market had originally forecasted a CPI (YoY) inflation of 10% for the Eurozone, the actual figure came in at 9.9%, missing market expectations slightly. This could indicate to the market that the European Central Bank should continue its interest rate hiking cycle.  The falling inflation during September marks the first drop in Eurozone CPI inflation since May 2022. The falling inflation could provide the European Central Bank with an incentive to continue on their hawkish interest rate hiking path.  Effect of the CPI inflation data When the European Central Bank meets again at the end of the month, it is anticipated that it will boost its benchmark interest rates by an additional 75 basis points, adding to the total number of rises announced since July of 125 basis points. However, the Euro Area is predicted to "stagnate later in the year and in the first quarter of 2023," and the fear of a weakening economy may induce the central bank to implement lower rate increases over the following months. With the U.K. inflation figures, concerns that central bank tightening may cause a worldwide downturn have reemerged, reversing the previous upbeat feeling brought on by solid earnings reports and dissipating concerns about systemic risk from Britain's debt markets. The U.K’s hotter than expected inflation figure has also put pressure on the markets. In addition, the European economy has been weighed down by the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine, and the looming energy crisis. The Initial market reaction in the wake of the softer than expected CPI inflation data saw the Euro weaken against both the US Dollar and the Pound sterling. The initial market reaction saw both the HSBC shares and the iBEX index rise. Sources: finance.yahoo.com, marketsummary.com, ft.com, investing.com
This Week's Tesla Stock Split Could Be The Best Moment To Buy The Stock! Twitter Stock Price Plunged!

Tesla (TSLA) Stock Price Dropped Around 5.77% In Pre-Market Trading

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 20.10.2022 15:23
Summary: Concerns that inflation & logistic difficulties may have slowed the EV manufacturer's development. Tesla fell short of automotive gross margin estimates. Tesla share prices down Tesla Inc. shares dropped by roughly 5% in pre-bell trading on Thursday as Wall Street analysts worried that growing inflation and logistical difficulties may have slowed the electric vehicle manufacturer's development. At least five brokerages reduced their price targets for the stock, with Wedbush Securities making the greatest reduction of $60 to lower its goal to $300 and citing softer deliveries in 2022. "The bullish narrative is clearly hitting a rough patch as Tesla must now prove again to the Street that the robust growth story is running into a myriad of logistics issues as opposed to demand softening," Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives wrote in a note. In premarket trade, the stock, which has lost 37% of its value this year, dropped 4.6% to $211.80. The company warned that difficulties it was having with logistics could prevent it from meeting its goal of a 50% increase in delivery volume this year in its quarterly results report. Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, acknowledged that "demand is slightly harder" than it would otherwise be on a post-earnings call, but he reiterated that the business was quite optimistic in having a record fourth quarter. Tesla fell short of automotive gross margin estimates despite increased selling prices for its vehicles due to manufacturing ramp-up costs at its new factories in Austin, Texas, and Berlin, Germany. However, other analysts believe Tesla will benefit greatly from the global transition toward electric automobiles. Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO, noted that demand was high while discussing the company's third-quarter profits. He did, however, issue a warning that deflationary tendencies in the economy were intensifying and that China and Europe were going through "a form of recession." TSLA Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, ft.com
Saxo Bank And JP Morgan's Negative Views On The Outlook For British Economic Growth

UK Retail Sales Data Missed Market Expectations, Coming In Hotter Than Expected

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.10.2022 08:41
Summary: U.K Retails data came in hotter than expected. Consumer spending has largely decreased in the U.K. UK Retail Sales Data UK Retail Sales Data heavily missed market expectations on Friday, with YoY data coming in at -6.9% and market expectations that were originally set at -5.0%, and MoM data also missing market expectations, coming in at -1.4% with expectations originally set at -0.5%. The data from both YoY & MoM missed market expectations by a long way, indicating that the U.K economy had deteriorated throughout September more than the markets had expected. Retail Sales track changes in the total amount of retail sales that have been adjusted for inflation. It is the most important gauge of consumer spending, which dominates all other forms of economic activity. The lower than expected readings could be interpreted as bearish or negative, as consumers in the U.K heavily slowdown the spending as the looming recession becomes more real. Effect on the market It could be said that the retail sales help investors to gauge the health of an economy and the existence of inflationary pressures. Consumer spending makes up a large part of the U.Ks GDP, the figures that largely missed market expectations could be interpreted as the U.K economy heading into a recession. The market could expect that the Bank of England (BoE) will continue on their interest rate hiking cycle, and perhaps we could see the BoE turn even more hawkish in their fight against rising inflation. The initial market reaction for the GBP/USD currency pair saw the GBP weaken against the USD, the same goes for the EUR/GBP currency pair, which saw the EUR strengthen against the GBP initially. The FTSE 100 is up as of the release of the Retail Sales Data. Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, ft.com
Craig Erlam and Jonny Hart talk Fed minutes, Bank of Korea decision and more - Oanda Market Insights Podcast

SNAP Inc. Share Price Crashes 30%, BHP CEO Optimistic About China’s Economic Prospects, Fed’s Hawkishness

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.10.2022 16:38
Summary: Snap’s Q3 earning results missed market expectations. BHP is optimistic about China's growth prospects. Fed remains hawkish in interest rate hiking cycle. SNAP stock crashing After another difficult quarter, the stock price for Snap is still declining. In pre-market trading on Friday, shares of the social networking platform fell 25% as third quarter sales showed a fifth consecutive quarterly slowdown. Additionally, profits were disappointing, as Snap continued to attribute the poor execution to a slowdown in advertising and changes to Apple's privacy policies. The business issued a warning that the fourth-quarter sales trends would deteriorate. Snap Inc. Q3 earnings missed market expectations. Average Revenue Per User: $3.11 vs. $3.17 forecast, Daily Active Users: 363 million vs. 358 million estimate, Adjusted EPS: $0.08 vs. projected loss of $0.02, Net Sales: $1.13 billion vs. $1.14 billion estimate Guidance: Fourth-quarter revenue growth was "flat." $SNAP shares are still struggling in pre-market today after a dismal Q3 report. The stock is down almost 30% in pre-market, surpassing analyst estimates of a 23% swing. https://t.co/RD3FDZrEAT pic.twitter.com/j1CF7GKcTH — Yahoo Finance Plus (@yfinanceplus) October 21, 2022   BHP CEO optimistic about future production CEO of BHP Group Mike Henry stated on Friday that despite uncertainty, he was "cautiously optimistic" about China's economic prospects. The leader of the largest listed mining firm in the world stated in a pre-recorded interview at the FT Mining Summit in London: "There is uncertainty in China, but in our judgment, China is still going to give a bit of stability or underpinning to global economic development over the next 12 months."   With more than 250 million tonnes mined in the fiscal year ending in June, BHP is a leading producer of iron ore, which is used to make steel used in the construction industry. According to Henry, the multinational mining corporation is now looking into ways to boost iron ore productivity above 300 million tonnes annually. BHP chief pledges ‘disciplined’ M&A stance despite bulging war chest https://t.co/qoBC6jukwA — Financial Times (@FT) October 21, 2022 Federal Reserve to remain hawkish In general, the US dollar is higher so far today as markets assess the week before the weekend. After soaring once further in the US session, Treasury rates across the curve are a few basis points higher in Asian trade. Today's 4.27% yield on the benchmark 10-year bond was the highest since 2008. ⚠️BREAKING:*FED SET TO RAISE RATES BY 0.75 POINT AND DEBATE SIZE OF FUTURE HIKES - WSJ$DIA $SPY $QQQ 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/eWNuHX0skh — Investing.com (@Investingcom) October 21, 2022 Sources: finance.yahoo.com, twitter.com, dailyfx.com
Meta Is Cutting Discretionary Spendings And Extending Its Freeze On Hiring

SNAP Inc Share Price Weighed Down By Disappointing Q3 Earnings Results

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.10.2022 19:56
Summary: SNAP may need to make even more job cuts. Summary of Snap's difficult quarter. Price of Snap fell by close to 30% on Friday. SNAP Inc Share Price down 30% One veteran tech analyst expressed concern that Snap (SNAP) may need to make even more job cuts than it had first anticipated due to the third quarter's steeper than anticipated decline in business. After the social media platform disclosed that third-quarter sales slowed for the fifth consecutive quarter, the price of Snap fell by close to 30% on Friday morning. Throughout the session, the company's shares dominated Yahoo Finance's "Trending Ticker" page. Snap said at the end of August that it would lay off 1,300 workers, or 20% of its staff. Despite the recent round of major layoffs, Snap continues to blame a slowdown in advertising and Apple's (AAPL) privacy rules for its executional blunders as third-quarter profitability lagged. The business also issued a warning that the fourth-quarter sales trends will deteriorate. Here is a summary of Snap's difficult quarter: Net Sales: $1.13 billion vs an anticipated $1.14 billion, 363 million versus an expected 358 million daily active users, $3.11 as opposed to the predicted $3.17 for average revenue per user Adjusted EPS: $0.08 vs a loss of $0.02 expected, Guidance: Fourth-quarter revenue growth was "flat." "Yes, I mean they do [have to cut expenses more]," Jefferies Analyst Brent Thill mentioned on Yahoo Finance Live. "They just restructured the company. They obviously are in the process of still reducing the workforce by 20%. They may have to go deeper." Shares of the photo-focused social media behemoth Snap (SNAP) are currently 30% down than their 52-week highs after it released poor third-quarter earnings. Additionally suffering from the stock shift are companies like Meta (META), Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG), Pinterest (PINS), and others. Some of these businesses are being helped by the fact that U.S. stocks are rising in the first part of Friday's session, but not Snap. SNAP Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, thestreet.com
The release of Chinese GDP, Bank of Canada interest rate decision and more - InstaForex talks the following week (part I)

Broad China Selloff Drags Down Alibaba, European Gas Prices Down, Goldman Sachs Aim To Increase Investment In China, Race For Next U.K PM

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 24.10.2022 13:40
Summary: Alibaba stock tanks on Monday. Warmer weather prospects driving NGAS down. Goldman Sachs has established a new joint venture in China. Rishi Sunak on track to become the next U.K Prime Minister. Markets reacted to President Xi Jinping’s re-election As markets reacted to President Xi Jinping consolidating power following his historic confirmation to a third term as head of the second-largest economy in the world, shares of Chinese corporations were falling on Monday. Alibaba (ticker: BABA) lost 12% in premarket trade in the United States. Investors are spooked by President Xi Jinping's increasing control over China's ruling party as he begins a record-setting third term with no apparent successor. In addition, the 14th edition of the 11.11 Global Shopping Festival ("11.11" or "Festival"), which will feature more than 290,000 brands, was formally launched today by Alibaba Group Holding Limited. ⚠️BREAKING:*ALIBABA STOCK PLUNGES 11% IN HONG KONG AMID BROAD CHINA SELLOFF$BABA 🇨🇳🇭🇰 pic.twitter.com/qd0XErYE4B — Investing.com (@Investingcom) October 24, 2022 European gas prices fall as supply prospects improve Following predictions of warmer-than-usual weather for the majority of the continent over the coming week, European natural gas futures fell once again during the opening hours of trading on Monday. Weather predictions that continental Europe will see temperatures this week that are between 4 and 8 degrees Celsius warmer than the seasonal norm, predicting reduced demand and enabling importers to continue injecting excess gas into storage, served as the primary impetus for the decision. ​​In order to relieve the pressure brought on by Russia's effective supply suspension, Europe has been able to fill its storage facilities ahead of schedule thanks to a mild start to the winter heating season and aggressive buying of liquefied natural gas on spot markets. EU storage facilities were 93.4% full as of Sunday, with the two largest markets on the continent, Germany and Italy, posting even higher levels. ⚠️BREAKING:*EUROPEAN GAS PRICES TUMBLE TO LOWEST SINCE JULY ON EASING SUPPLY FEARS 🇪🇺🇪🇺 pic.twitter.com/nGg49xSG1T — Investing.com (@Investingcom) October 24, 2022 Goldman Sachs’ new joint venture In an effort to increase investment in Chinese logistics and infrastructure real estate assets, Goldman Sachs has established a joint venture in China with local logistics firm Sunjade, the U.S. bank announced on Monday. According to a company release, the bank is creating the new subsidiary through its investment arm Goldman Sachs Asset Management, which has made more than $50 billion in real estate-related investments worldwide. The stock structure or the amount of money committed to the platform were not disclosed. The joint venture has invested in a 240,000 square meter project with four institutional-grade warehouse assets in Shanghai and the surrounding region. The joint venture focuses on projects in China's first-tier cities and neighboring areas. The new platform, according to the U.S. bank, will profit from China's growing demand for brand-new, high-quality infrastructure assets, particularly institutional-quality storage space driven by e-commerce and the diversification of industrial requirements supported by government policies. Goldman Sachs launches Chinese infrastructure real estate joint venture https://t.co/HdGJm9ExlH pic.twitter.com/mmj53hkACz — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 24, 2022 Rishi Sunak on track to be next U.K PM After Boris Johnson withdrew from the race on Sunday night and the markets breathed a sigh of relief, Rishi Sunak, a former chancellor, was on track to become the new prime minister of Britain on Monday. After the likelihood of further imminent political and economic unrest decreased, the value of the pound increased on Monday. Johnson, who was having trouble gaining support, acknowledged that due to divisions among Tory MPs, even if he had won, he could not have governed "effectively." If Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons and his sole remaining competitor, is unable to secure the necessary 100 nominations from Tory MPs, Sunak will take over as the party's leader at 2 p.m. on Monday. Rishi Sunak’s priority should be to restore stability and the UK’s reputation https://t.co/WLKJCGg49X — Financial Times (@FT) October 24, 2022 Sources: finance.yahoo.com, ft.com, twitter.com
This Week's Tesla Stock Split Could Be The Best Moment To Buy The Stock! Twitter Stock Price Plunged!

Tesla Lowers Starting Price Of Selected EV Models

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 24.10.2022 13:00
Summary: TSLA stock's six-month fall is sitting around 37.8%. Tesla is lowering the starting price of its Model 3 and Model Y, in China. China, the world's largest EV market, is still constrained by Beijing's "zero COvid" policy. Tesla car model price lowering For the first time this year, Tesla is lowering the starting price of its Model 3 and Model Y cars in China. After lowering pricing for the first time this year for cars built in China, Tesla (TSLA) shares continued to fall on Monday, indicating waning demand in the largest market in the world. Just days after its third quarter earnings report echoed the impact of rising production costs and showed narrowing profit margins for the most valuable automaker in the world, Tesla reduced the starting price of its Model 3 sedan by about 5.3% and cut the cost of its Model Y by 9%. Tesla has been increasing the costs of its American-made cars for much of the year. Tesla reported that due to an increase in input prices and expenses associated with the start-up of new plants in Austin and Berlin, gross automotive margins were 27.9%, a 600 basis point decrease from last year and unchanged from the amount achieved over the second quarter. The company also warned that as it "simplifies operations, reduces costs, and improves the experience of our consumers," full-year deliveries "may fall slightly short of its 50% growth target." In pre-market trading, Tesla shares were marked 3.5% lower to reflect an opening bell price of $207 per share, bringing the stock's six-month fall to about 37.8%. Following record quarterly sales of 343,830 vehicles, Tesla stated last week that revenues increased 56% from the previous year to $21.45 billion, falling short of analysts' expectations of a $21.96 billion total. Demand is anticipated to decline over the course of the year as countries in Europe and North America hold off on major purchases due to recession fears and the continued rise in energy prices, while China, the world's largest EV market, is still constrained by Beijing's "zero COvid" policy. TSLA Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, thestreet.com
In The Coming Days Will Be The Final Consolidation Of Bitcoin

Chinese Renminbi Hits Lowest Level In 15 Years, Transfer Of UK PM Status, EU Stocks Supported By Potentially Dovish Fed, Bitcoin Forecast

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 25.10.2022 13:00
Summary: The value of China's currency has decreased 13% so far this year.  U.S. economy shrank for a fourth consecutive month.   Chancellor Rishi Sunak was named the next prime minister. Bitcoins new price objective set at $30,000. The Renminbi is crashing The value of the Chinese yuan against the dollar has fallen to its lowest level since 2007 as worries over President Xi Jinping's choice of a more hardline leadership team and the weakening economy moved from stock markets to currency markets. A growing interest rate disparity with the US has already hurt the renminbi this year; on Tuesday, it dropped as much as 0.6% to Rmb7.3084 per dollar. The People's Bank of China lowered the midpoint of the currency's trading band to its lowest level since the world financial crisis, which caused the decline.  The value of China's currency has decreased 13% so far this year. The decline on Tuesday came after a sell-off in Chinese stocks that affected markets around the world this week, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises index falling more than 7% on Monday and the Nasdaq Golden Dragons index of major technology stocks falling more than 14%. China’s renminbi has hit its weakest level against the dollar since 2007 following concerns over President Xi Jinping’s appointment of a harder line leadership team and a struggling economy https://t.co/F96TYsSrcE pic.twitter.com/8niDscsIu5 — Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) October 25, 2022 Rishi Sunak takes over from Truss This week saw a solid start for the pound, but it was unable to continue its upward trend when former chancellor Rishi Sunak was named the next prime minister-designate after the Conservative Party leadership contest, which will have a major impact on the pound and the UK economy going forward. After former Prime Minister Boris Johnson withdrew from the race for the position of Prime Minister, leaving former Chancellor Rishi Sunak on course for a coronation that is expected to produce the UK's fifth Prime Minister in the past six years on Tuesday, sterling increased against most major currencies to start the new week.  The Pound, however, quickly lost its early gains as newly-elected Prime Minister Rishi Sunak warned of impending economic hardship and difficult choices involving the public finances in a speech to parliament.  Follow the latest developments as Rishi Sunak takes over from Liz Truss as UK prime minister https://t.co/pEjylJrgRO — Bloomberg (@business) October 25, 2022 EU Stocks supported by potentially dovish fed While anxiety over China's economy continued to weigh on Asian markets, European stocks climbed in early trade on Tuesday as investors took heart from indications that the U.S. Federal Reserve could scale back its rate increases. Data released on Monday revealed that the U.S. economy shrank for a fourth consecutive month. This suggests that the Fed's rate hikes have weakened the economy, which in turn has fueled optimism that the central bank may start to moderate the pace of the increases.  The projected Fed rate peak has decreased slightly from over 5% early last week to around 4.93%. The European stock market's mood was also helped by certain profit results that exceeded forecasts, with Swiss bank UBS (UBSG.S) among those that did so. However, the biggest bank in Europe, HSBC, announced a 42% decline in third-quarter profit, which caused a 4% decline in its share price (.HSBA.L). European stocks up as investors see signs Fed could slow rate rises https://t.co/a5VwuwKWFZ pic.twitter.com/ONhjztqvLs — Reuters (@Reuters) October 25, 2022 Bitcoin Forecast revised upwards to $30,000 In the coming month, Bitcoin "will break out dramatically," with a price objective of $30,000.  Michal van de Poppe, the founder and CEO of the trading company Eight, made that most recent forecast. On October 25, Van de Poppe tweeted his support for the analysts who are predicting a rise in the price of bitcoin. BTC/USD is now characterized by a notable lack of volatility, but there are growing indications that the sideways trend is about to undergo a significant change.  Popular analyst TechDev and others have confirmed that Bitcoin's Bollinger Bands versus the Nasdaq are the tightest in history, which all but guarantees an explosive move to come. “Market looking good for a last leg up. Higher highs and higher lows on ltf and demand being moved up,” he tweeted.   Analyst puts Bitcoin price at $30K next month with breakout due - https://t.co/IKtVBdXcef — Investing.com News (@newsinvesting) October 25, 2022 Sources: twitter.com, cointelegraph.com, reuters.com, ft.com, investing.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Energy Companies Will Likely Reveal Another Excellent Quarter

General Electric (GE) Cash Goal Delayed In The Wake On Supply Chain Issues - According To CEO

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 25.10.2022 18:45
Summary: GE is on pace to reach the low end of its projection due to "external pressures" like inflation. 27% increase in aerospace sales. General Electric (GE) Q3 Earnings The industrial group's cash flow rebounded in the second quarter thanks to GE's aerospace business, but the company issued a warning that its working capital would be put under strain as it protected its clients from the full effects of supply chain disruptions for the remainder of the year. After GE separated its healthcare and energy businesses, Larry Culp, the company's chief executive, said the group was adhering to its forecast that full-year adjusted profits per share would range between $2.80 to $3.50 per share. With the exception of cash, where delayed renewable energy orders and the anticipated losses to working capital would "push out," or postpone, around $1 billion in free cash flow to a later date, GE was on pace to reach the low end of its projection due to "external pressures" like inflation. Before Tuesday's release, analysts' consensus projections for full-year earnings had already decreased to $2.80 per share from $3.20 three months prior when GE issued a warning about the effects of lockdowns in China and the war in Ukraine. A 27% increase in aerospace sales drove a 5% increase in GE's top line, and adjusted revenues of $17.9 billion exceeded analysts' forecasts of $17.6 billion. As a result of supply chain delays, services revenues in the aerospace industry increased by 47% while commercial engine deliveries decreased. According to GE, its strategy to divide into three publicly traded firms by 2024 with a focus on healthcare, energy, and aviation is still on track. As it advanced toward the three-way split, it claimed on Tuesday that it incurred "separation costs" of roughly $200 million in the second quarter. Culp said he was still optimistic that the plan will increase GE's worth in the long term when he made his remarks the same day that 3M revealed intentions to separate its own healthcare division. This month, GE made the following announcements: its healthcare division would be spun off early next year under the name GE HealthCare; its energy division would be rebranded as GE Vernova when it goes public in 2024; and Culp would oversee the remaining aviation division, which will be known as GE Aerospace. According to GE, the effects of inflation pressures would result in $3 billion in healthcare earnings for the entire year. It further stated that it no longer anticipated a "step up" in earnings at its renewable energy company in the second half of the year, blaming "paralysis in Washington" for a failure to meet expectations for the onshore wind turbine market.
Declines At The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange, The Drop Leaders Were Nike Inc Shares

NASDAQ Futures Down More Than 1.5%, Xi Jinping Pushes Out Youth League Members From Politburo, Spotify Users Up 20% YoY

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.10.2022 12:15
Summary: NASDAQ weighed down by poor MSFT & GOOGL earnings. Xi's years-long campaign to destroy the faction was successful. Spotify surpassed expectations in terms of both paid and free user growth. NASDAQ down more than 1.5% on Tuesday On Wednesday, Nasdaq futures dropped more than 1% after poor financial statements from tech titans Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Microsoft prompted losses at other megacap firms and fueled concerns about slowing economic growth. While Alphabet, the parent company of Google, reported disappointing ad sales and warned of a slowdown in advertising expenditure, Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) reported its lowest sales growth in five years and anticipated second-quarter revenue below Wall Street estimates. In premarket trade, the businesses' shares plummeted 5.7% and 6.0%, respectively, while those of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), who are expected to release earnings this week, dropped 3.7% and 0.6%. The disappointing results come after Snap Inc. (NYSE:SNAP) issued a warning last week over sluggish ad demand and a string of mixed earnings reports, which have added to concerns that the economy is being negatively impacted by decades-high inflation and ad-hoc interest rate hikes to combat it. ⚠️BREAKING:*NASDAQ 100 FUTURES TUMBLE 1.8% AS GOOGLE, MICROSOFT SINK AFTER EARNINGS$QQQ $GOOGL $MSFT pic.twitter.com/2rd4B4bJjP — Investing.com (@Investingcom) October 26, 2022 China’s new president pushes out youth league members The three most notable absences from China's new Communist Party leadership have one thing in common: they all rose through the ranks of the Youth League and were regarded as representatives of a once-dominant clique, whose influence Xi Jinping has now successfully quashed. Even the larger Central Committee was bypassed as Xi installed supporters in key party positions during the recent twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle. Premier Li Keqiang and Vice Premier Wang Yang, both 67 and young enough to be re-appointed to the elite seven-member Politburo Standing Committee, were left out. Hu Chunhua, a fellow vice premier and former high flyer who, at 59, had been considered a prospect for premier and, at one point, even a potential future president, failed to make it to the 24-man Politburo. Analysts said the omissions demonstrate Xi's years-long campaign to destroy the faction was successful. China's Xi deals knockout blow to once-powerful Youth League faction https://t.co/g47pd77mil pic.twitter.com/uqSDoVgG2g — Reuters (@Reuters) October 26, 2022 Spotify up 20% on Users Spotify surpassed expectations in terms of both paid and free user growth in the third quarter, pointing to the region's strength in particular. A net addition of 23 million members, or 20% more than Spotify's previous projection, brought the total number of monthly active users (MAUs) to 456 million, which is the company's highest Q3 growth to date. The number of Spotify Premium subscribers increased to 195 million, up 7 million during the time (about 1 million more than expected) and 13% annually. Ek stated on the earnings call that Spotify is considering increasing the cost of its U.S. subscription plans in response to price increases by YouTube Premium and Apple Music. “[I]t’s something we will [discuss] with our label partners,” he said. “I feel good about this upcoming year, and what it means about pricing for our service.” Spotify (SPOT) reported a quarterly loss of $0.99 per share vs the $0.88 loss that the Zacks Consensus Estimate had predicted. This contrasts with a loss of $0.48 per share in the prior year. These numbers have non-recurring expenses taken into account. This quarterly report shows a -12.50% profits surprise. This music streaming service operator surprised analysts by posting a loss of $0.91 per share during the most recent quarter when it was anticipated that it would lose $0.68, a difference of -33.82%. The management's remarks on the earnings call will be largely responsible for determining if the stock's current price movement based on previously revealed numbers and anticipated future earnings can be sustained. Compared to the S&P 500's -20.3% decrease since the start of the year, Spotify share prices have fallen by around 59.6%. Spotify reaches 456M total monthly users in Q3, up 20% YoY and topping expectations https://t.co/vRe14ATA7s via @Variety CEO also said subscribers can expect price hikes for the service sometime in 2023. $SPOT shares are down 5% in after market trading. — Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) October 25, 2022 Sources: finance.yahoo.com, twitter.com, reuters.com, investing.com
Harley Davidson (HOG) Q3 Earnings Were Better Than Expected

Harley Davidson (HOG) Q3 Earnings Were Better Than Expected

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.10.2022 18:01
Summary: The third-quarter results for Harley-Davidson HOG beat expectations. Harley's goals and plans for enhancing operational performance are called Hardwire. Harley stock had lost roughly 2% of its value as of Wednesday's trade. Harley Davidson beat market expectations The third-quarter results for Harley-Davidson HOG +11.15% were better than expected. The business is advancing in optimizing its processes. On Wednesday, Harley (ticker: HOG) announced $1.78 in earnings per share on $1.65 billion in revenues. Wall Street anticipated sales of $1.37 billion and a share price of roughly $1.40. Operating profit margins increased to 20.6% from 14.9% in the third quarter of 2021 and 17% in the second quarter of 2022, respectively. “ Harley-Davidson delivered a strong third quarter with solid growth for both revenue and operating income, aligned to our Hardwire strategic initiatives,” said CEO Jochen Zeitz in the company’s news release. “We are reaffirming our outlook for the year, and as we approach our 120th anniversary that we will be celebrating in our hometown Milwaukee and around the world.” Harley's goals and plans for enhancing operational performance are called Hardwire. In 2022, Harley anticipates a 20% to 25% increase in operating profits. That suggests operational revenue of around $1 billion in 2022. Currently, Wall Street is simulating around $870 million. Harley has generated operating profit of roughly $900 million so far this year. There is now roughly $100 million left to spend in the fourth quarter. Wall Street presently forecasts an operating profit for the time period of roughly $32 million. Harley stock had lost roughly 2% of its value as of Wednesday's trade, less than the corresponding 19% loss of the S&P 500. Following earnings, options markets predict that shares will change by about 8%, either up or down. In response to the last four quarterly reports, shares have changed by about 7%, either up or down. Over that time, shares have increased four times and decreased once. HOG Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, barrons.com
This Week's Tesla Stock Split Could Be The Best Moment To Buy The Stock! Twitter Stock Price Plunged!

Credit Suisse To Raise 4bn CHF To Fund Restructure, Tesla Inc. Under Criminal Investigation, Trading Of TWTR Shares Will Be Paused

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 27.10.2022 12:37
Summary: Credit Suisse is essentially dismantling the investment bank. EV with self-driving capabilities was involved in many accidents. Musk has until October 28 to complete his $44 billion acquisition of TWTR. Credit Suisse to restructure Credit Suisse Group AG announced a restructure that will result in a multibillion dollar capital raising, thousands of job cutbacks, and the separation of the investment bank, taking the most drastic moves yet to restore the firm. According to a statement released on Thursday, the company intends to raise 4 billion francs ($4.1 billion) by selling shares to investors, including the Saudi National Bank, and through a rights issue. By splitting up the advice and capital markets businesses and selling the majority of its SPG business to Apollo Global Management Inc. and Pacific Investment Management Co., it is essentially dismantling the investment bank. After a string of significant losses and managerial upheaval destroyed Credit Suisse's reputation as one of the most respected institutions in Europe, the makeover is an urgent effort to rebuild trust. Ulrich Koerner, the bank's chief executive officer, and Chairman Axel Lehmann, who were appointed as crisis managers, now have the difficult task of carrying out the largest restructuring in the bank's recent history while attempting to safeguard the wealth management division that will determine its future. Credit Suisse seeks billions from investors in make-or-break overhaul https://t.co/MSy4Q4h7fT pic.twitter.com/e9mg3eUByl — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 27, 2022 TSLA under criminal investigation The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) released its initial wave of data on car crashes involving vehicles with autonomous driving systems in June of last year as part of its attempts to increase traffic safety while still encouraging innovation. It came out that a very well-liked electric car with self-driving capabilities was involved in a lot more accidents than was previously thought. Ten months of data were covered in the June report. It showed that when employing fully autonomous capabilities like Tesla's Autopilot, ADAS-equipped vehicles crashed 392 times, with Tesla vehicles accounting for 273 of those collisions. It represents around 70% of the cases. Given this context, it was logical but yet surprising to learn that the Department of Justice is looking into Tesla as part of a criminal investigation. The revelation that the Department of Justice is looking into Tesla as part of a criminal probe made sense given this backdrop, but it was nonetheless unexpected. The Justice Department is looking into possible customer misinformation regarding the functionality and security of the self-driving feature. For the mere reason that Tesla emphasizes in its own materials that the cars are not yet capable of completely autonomous driving, it might be challenging to make any form of claim against the company over excessive promises. Tesla is under criminal investigation in the United States over claims that the company's electric vehicles can drive themselves, three people familiar with the matter said https://t.co/HQh5rvn54u pic.twitter.com/oGo5ZKtWqT — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 27, 2022 Musk to acquire TWTR by October 28th According to the website of the New York Stock Exchange, trading in Twitter Inc. (TWTR) shares will be paused on Friday because entrepreneur Elon Musk has until October 28 to complete his $44 billion acquisition of the social media platform. Musk, the richest man in the world, visited Twitter's San Francisco offices on Wednesday and implied that he was the company's top executive by changing his profile bio to "Chief Twit." Reuters stated on Tuesday that Musk's attorneys had provided the necessary documentation for the finance pledge to equity investors Sequoia Capital, Binance, Qatar Investment Authority, and others. The closing of the transaction would put an end to Twitter's litigation. Twitter, together with the investors, now anticipate that the transaction will close at the agreed-upon price of $54.20 per share. On Wednesday, the NYSE saw the company's stock close at $53.35 per share. They were trading slightly below Musk's offer price in extended trading, up nearly 1% at $53.90. *TWITTER WILL BE DELISTED FROM THE NYSE ON FRIDAY AFTER MUSK COMPLETES DEAL$TWTR pic.twitter.com/jasBHEMrJp — Investing.com (@Investingcom) October 27, 2022 Sources: twitter.com, investing.com, reuters.com, finance.yahoo.com, thestreet.com
USD/JPY Reaching 130-135? It Seems It Maybe Not Impossible

Credit Suisse Q3 Earnings Missed Market Expectations Sparking Major In-house Changes

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 27.10.2022 17:04
Summary: Credit Suisse will cut their investment bank. The company will go to the market to raise capital. Shares were trading at or near record lows. Credit Suisse Q3 Earnings spark major in-house changed In order to restore investor trust and finance a protracted reconfiguration that will result in the elimination of its investment bank and a 9,000-person reduction in headcount, Credit Suisse Group AG decided to turn to investors for a painful multibillion-dollar capital raise. The firm's ambitions to raise 4 billion francs ($4.1 billion) through a rights issue and the sale of shares to investors like the Saudi National Bank caused the stock to fall as much as 16%. By splitting up the advice and capital markets divisions and selling the majority of a trading company to a group headed by Apollo Global Management Inc., it virtually dismantled the investment bank. The actions represent an urgent attempt by Credit Suisse to regain credibility after a string of significant losses and managerial instability destroyed its reputation as one of the most prominent lenders in Europe. Ulrich Koerner, the bank's CEO, and Chairman Axel Lehmann are already being questioned about whether the biggest transformation in the institution's recent history is drastic enough and provides suffering shareholders with enough reward. “The new Credit Suisse will definitely be profitable from 2024 onwards,” Koerner said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Francine Lacqua. “We do not want to overpromise and underdeliver, we want to do it the other way around.” As investors processed combined expenses connected to the reorganization of around $6.6 billion and the dilution effect of the share sales, the shares dropped 12% at 1:06 PM in Zurich. With a potential ownership of up to 9.9%, the capital increase may make Saudi National Bank, which is supported by the country's major sovereign wealth fund, one of Credit Suisse's largest shareholders. Given that the shares were trading at or near record lows, bank executives had hoped to avoid raising capital, but after observing the outflow of assets and deposits from rich clients, they ultimately chose to do so in order to strengthen the bank's finances. The bank reported a net loss of 4.03 billion francs for the third quarter and stated that it anticipated a loss for the entire year. The company announced that it will begin cutting 2,700 positions from its employees in the fourth quarter and that by 2025, it expects to have reduced its employment by around 9,000, to 43,000. By that time, it also wants to cut the cost base by 15%, or 2.5 billion Swiss francs. According to analysts at Citigroup Inc., Credit Suisse's 2025 goal of a 6% return on tangible equity "appears to lack ambition." The restructure takes place as a result of third-quarter results that highlighted the difficulties ahead. Wealthy clientele left as the investment bank struggled on. The bank reported a quarterly loss of more than $4 billion, which included an impairment of deferred tax assets associated with the restructuring worth 3.7 billion francs. Through 2024, the transformation will cost an additional 2.9 billion francs. CS Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, bloomberg.com
Saxo Bank And JP Morgan's Negative Views On The Outlook For British Economic Growth

Eurozone Inflation Touches Record High, US Treasury, What To Watch At BoE Rate Setting Meeting

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 31.10.2022 12:59
Summary: Consumer prices in the Eurozone reached a new record high. Investors in US government bonds are pleading with the Treasury department to intervene. The BoE will this week publish its latest decision on interest rates. Eurozone inflation rises for 12th consecutive month According to a flash estimate from the European Union's statistics office, consumer prices in the Eurozone reached a new record high for the twelfth consecutive month, driven by a persistent rise in energy prices. In October, annual inflation in the currency region increased by 10.7%, exceeding economists' expectations of 10.2% and up from the previous level of 9.9%. As a result of ongoing tensions regarding the provision of crucial Russian gas flows into Europe after the start of the war in Ukraine, energy costs increased by 41.9% during the month. Food, drink, and tobacco prices all went up 13.1%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile commodities like food and energy, registered at 5.0%, up from the previous reading of 4.8% and also higher than expected. Businesses have displayed symptoms of pessimism about the future, and economists anticipate that the Eurozone will enter a recession this year as a result of spillover effects from this skyrocketing inflation. According to Eurostat's flash statistics, which was also issued on Monday, the third quarter saw an unusually severe slowdown in economic development in the Eurozone. The seasonally adjusted gross domestic product increased by 0.2% when compared to the prior three months, which was less than the 0.8% increase seen in the second quarter and the 1.0% increase expected. In morning trade, the euro decline against the dollar and little changed thereafter. ⚠️BREAKING:*EURO ZONE ANNUAL INFLATION RATE JUMPS TO 10.7% IN OCTOBER, HIGHEST LEVEL ON RECORD 🇪🇺🇩🇪🇫🇷🇮🇹🇪🇸🇳🇱 pic.twitter.com/3qj1Ddy4dr — Investing.com (@Investingcom) October 31, 2022 Investors pleading with US Treasury department Investors in US government bonds are pleading with the Treasury department to intervene in the market in the hopes that this week will bring signs of potential buybacks following months of erratic price fluctuations and little liquidity. The fast rate hikes and quantitative tightening program implemented by the Federal Reserve this year have heightened the tension in the typically subdued $24 trillion Treasury market. When the Treasury announces its funding for the fourth quarter in the coming days, investors are hoping for hints about what it has in store. The cost of borrowing for the US government and the benchmark for prices across asset classes are determined by Treasury rates, which have fluctuated drastically in 2022. Even though the Treasury bond market is supposedly the most liquid in the world, the volatility has made it more difficult and expensive for investors to buy or sell Treasury bonds.Investors, strategists, and primary dealers anticipate that the Treasury will provide some information in the documents it releases this week after reviewing the survey's findings with them last week. The expected financing requirements for the fourth quarter and the Treasury's intentions for issuance will be revealed on Monday. Investors urge US Treasury to boost bond market liquidity with buyback scheme https://t.co/xlPeGVvvK2 — Financial Times (@FT) October 31, 2022 BoE to make UK economy estimates and interest rate decision The Bank of England will this week publish its latest decision on interest rates along with updated estimates for the UK economy in what is the most anxiously awaited monetary policy meeting in years. One of the most volatile periods in recent UK economic history preceded the BoE's most recent interest rate meeting on September 22. Liz Truss' "mini" Budget, which included £45 billion in unfunded tax cuts, caused a spike in government borrowing costs, necessitated an emergency BoE intervention, and increased mortgage rates for homeowners. In the government's autumn statement on November 17, the new prime minister Rishi Sunak promises a new economic plan that will demonstrate how debt would decrease as a share of gross domestic product over the medium term. Thus, without complete knowledge of Sunak's strategy, the BoE Monetary Policy Committee will be largely "flying blind" when it announces its interest rate decision on Thursday. Four things to watch out for are listed below. Interest rate decision. Economic growth and inflation forecasts. Quantitative tightening. Monetary policy management expectations. Four things to watch at the Bank of England’s rate-setting meeting https://t.co/u2hMRgYqu7 — Financial Times (@FT) October 31, 2022 Sources: ft.com, twitter.com, investing.com
More effects of FTX crash could show up

Non-transparent ETFs Have Been Struggling, Elon Musk Making Many Changes To Twitter, Pfizer COVID-19 Revenues Rise

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 01.11.2022 16:14
Summary: Since non-transparent ETFs were introduced two years ago, they have had difficulty gaining popularity. Elon Musk continues to make Twitter changes. Tuesday saw Pfizer increase its Covid-19 vaccine sales projection. Non-transparent ETFs Since the initial products were introduced two years ago, non-transparent ETFs have had difficulty gaining popularity among investors, according to data. According to Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research for North America at Morningstar, portfolio-shielding ETFs had $4.4 billion in assets as of September 30, making up around 1.5% of the active ETF market. However, according to Morningstar data, only one ETF, the $2.1 billion Nuveen Growth Opportunities ETF, has roughly half of those assets. After attracting attention from companies including BlackRock, Capital Group, Nuveen, Columbia Threadneedle, and American Century, non-transparent ETFs were given regulatory permission in December 2019. On March 31, 2020, American Century introduced the first actively managed non-transparent ETFs. According to the American Century website, the Focused Dynamic Growth ETF currently has $121 million and the Focused Large Cap Value ETF currently has $200 million. According to Armour, non-transparent ETFs have seen a decline in market share among active ETFs this year. According to him, active ETFs have organically increased by 19.8% year to date through September, outpacing non-active ETFs by 11.7 percentage points. Non-transparent ETFs have had a difficult time amassing assets in part because large broker-dealers have been reluctant to add the products to their systems. UBS, Merrill Lynch, and Morgan Stanley Wealth Management all announced this year that they will begin providing a limited selection of portfolio-shielding ETFs on their platforms. Overall, Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, stated that investor response to opaque ETFs has been "lukewarm at best" and "downright cold" at worst. Portfolio-shielding active ETFs struggle to gain ground https://t.co/ksLUzKPPkN — Finance News (@ftfinancenews) November 1, 2022 Twitter CEO continuing to make changes The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that Twitter Inc., which billionaire Elon Musk acquired last week, will no longer permit customers of its Blue service to see content without advertisements. In June of last year, Twitter Blue, the platform's first subscription service that provided exclusive access to premium features including the ability to edit tweets, was introduced. Subscribers had access to some publishers' articles without being interrupted by adverts through the service. Last month, the social media site in the US made an edit option available to premium subscribers. According to news sources, Twitter is preparing additional modifications to its $4.99 per month Blue subscription tier, including adding user authentication. Musk added that charging a charge was the best way to "fight the bots & trolls" in a response to author Stephen King on Tuesday, asking if $8 was a price he would pay to be a verified user. $TWTR platform changes under Elon Musk “is literally like throwing spaghetti on the wall and seeing what sticks,” @binance CEO @cz_binance says, adding: “There should be new features every month, every week, every day.” pic.twitter.com/iUsW6pGH9C — Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) November 1, 2022 Pfizer revenue rises due to increase in COVID-19 vaccine sales Tuesday saw Pfizer increase its Covid-19 vaccine sales projection by $2 billion to $34 billion as higher pricing offset a drop in demand outside of the US. The US manufacturer claimed that high sales of several of its other medications and its bivalent booster, which targets the dominant strain of the Omicron type, helped it to somewhat offset the negative effects of a strong dollar. As a consequence of third-quarter results that exceeded analysts' estimates and allayed fears about waning demand for Covid products, the business kept its full-year target of $22 billion for sales of the Covid antiviral medication Paxlovid. Shares of Pfizer increased 3.5% in pre-market trading to reach $48.10. Pfizer reported third-quarter sales of $22.6 billion, which were more than experts had anticipated but were down 6% from the same period a year earlier when the pandemic was at its worst. The business raised its estimate for full-year 2022 earnings to a range between $6.40 and $6.50 per share. Additionally, it reduced its projected revenue to a range of $99.5 billion to $102 billion. 💉 Pfizer raises revenue view on higher-than-expected Covid-19 vaccine sales https://t.co/XlgVgQiGGl via @WSJ $PFE is +3.22% in pre-market trading. — Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) November 1, 2022 Sources: Twitter.com, ft.com, finance.yahoo.com
Disappointing German March macro data increase risk of technical recession

Airbnb Q3 Earnings Beat Market Expectations, ECB Puts Pressure On Banks Regarding Climate Change, Credit Suisse Just Misses Junk Status

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 02.11.2022 13:58
Summary: Airbnb Q4 earnings look dim. ECB to increase capital requirements for banks if they do not address climate change risks. S&P Global Ratings reduced Credit Suisse Group AG's. Airbnb anticipating poor booking outlook for Q4 Shares of Airbnb Inc. dropped after the firm provided a poor booking outlook for the fourth quarter, signaling that consumer preferences are changing back to urban and international locations rather than the more expensive rentals that were popular during the pandemic. In comparison to the third quarter's rise of 25%, the home-sharing platform said it anticipates the pace of nights and experiences booked will "slow significantly" in the fourth quarter. In the three months that ended in September, Airbnb reported 99.7 million nights and experiences booked, underperforming analysts' expectations of 99.9 million. Prior to the New York stock exchanges opening, the shares decreased by nearly 6% in premarket trading. In trading on Tuesday, the stock increased 2% to settle at $109.05 after falling 35% this year. Additionally, Airbnb stated that it anticipates average daily rates to moderate this quarter as a result of a strong currency and a trend in travelers returning to cities, where rates are often cheaper due to smaller facilities. With the low end of that range falling below Wall Street's estimate of $1.86 billion, the business projected fourth-quarter sales of between $1.80 billion and $1.88 billion. The somber prognosis comes after Airbnb had its most successful quarter and greatest quarterly revenue during the summer. The company's third-quarter earnings of $1.2 billion above analysts' expectations as revenue increased 29% to $2.88 billion. Before the numbers were made public, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Mandeep Singh and Damian Reimertz warned in a note that Airbnb could start competing again with hotels, which are currently seeing more inventory come back online following the pandemic downturn. $ABNB reports Q3 earnings that beat estimates, but comes in a bit low with Q4 guidance sending shares down. 👀 Q4 revenue forecast $1.80B to $1.88B vs $1.86B estimate💵 Revenue $2.88B vs $2.83B estimatehttps://t.co/RzAY1P67Ux — Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) November 1, 2022 ECB addressing Climate Risk After identifying numerous areas of concern, the European Central Bank increased the pressure on banks by warning them that if they don't address their financial risks related to climate change within the next two years, there will be increased capital requirements and fines. The ECB has sent letters to all of the major banks in the eurozone outlining 25 areas, on average, where it believes they are falling short in tackling climate risks and setting a deadline of 2024 to do so. The ECB announced on Wednesday that a "limited number" of banks have already had their capital requirements increased this year owing to concerns that they have not adequately addressed climate risks. This occurred in accordance with "pillar two" guidance, which, though not required, has a big impact on banks' capital management. The actions signal a substantial increase in the central bank's pressure on eurozone bankers to accelerate their efforts to identify, manage, and disclose climate risks in their balance sheets. Frank Elderson, vice-chair of the ECB's supervisory board, stated in a blog post that "the glass is slowly filling up, but it is not yet even half full." Credit Suisse just misses junk status ECB warns banks of capital hit if they fail to tackle climate risk https://t.co/ttlQoZDm1B — Finance News (@ftfinancenews) November 2, 2022 S&P Global Ratings reduced Credit Suisse Group AG's long-term rating to only one notch above junk status, highlighting the bank's difficulties following the announcement of a dramatic restructuring plan last week. The long-term rating of the Swiss bank was downgraded from BBB to BBB- with a stable outlook. Just one notch separates that from the BB "speculative grade." Following the restructuring's announcement on Thursday, the US ratings agency echoed a number of experts by stating that it saw "significant execution risks amid a deteriorating and uncertain economic and financial environment." Additionally, it indicated that many aspects of asset sales are still "unclear." As investors assessed the hefty costs of the plan, the low return expectations, and the massive dilution, Credit Suisse's new strategy led to the day's worst single-day decrease in share price ever, with shares falling 18%. The bank announced the strategic review as it reported a quarterly loss of 4.03 billion Swiss francs, which included a substantial impairment of deferred tax assets connected to the redesign. The restructure will result in the dissolution of the investment bank and will cost roughly $2.9 billion through 2024. S&P downgrades Credit Suisse Group, Moody's cuts some ratings https://t.co/n12QMnXBx5 pic.twitter.com/ASCCZSV3cg — Reuters (@Reuters) November 2, 2022 Sources: finance.yahoo.com, twitter.com, ft.com, reuters.com
CVs Health and Walgreens Are The Most Recent In The Line Of Settlements Concerning The Opioid Problem

CVs Health and Walgreens Are The Most Recent In The Line Of Settlements Concerning The Opioid Problem

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 02.11.2022 16:35
Summary: CVS Health and Walgreens, have agreed to pay roughly $10 billion. These are the first agreements made by pharmacy chains related to their involvement in the US opioid crisis. CVs Health and Walgreens settle opioid lawsuits The two largest US drugstore chains, CVS Health and Walgreens, have agreed to pay roughly $10 billion to resolve the majority of the ongoing legal disputes relating to the prescription of potent opioid medicines. These are the first agreements made by pharmacy chains related to their involvement in the US opioid crisis, which has resulted in tens of thousands of fatalities in recent years. “The agreement would fully resolve claims dating back a decade or more and is not an admission of any liability or wrongdoing,” the company added, as it released third-quarter results. “CVS Health will continue to defend against any litigation that the final agreement does not resolve.” With payments totaling around $4.79 billion over 15 years, Walgreens announced that it has achieved an agreement in principle to defend against the "vast majority" of opioid lawsuits brought against it by states. Under the deal, it anticipates paying native American tribes an additional $154 million. According to Walgreens, the agreements did not include the firm admitting any wrongdoing or guilt. According to a Tuesday Bloomberg News article, a $12 billion opioid settlement agreement had been reached between CVS, Walmart, and Walgreens. The in-principle agreements reached with CVS and Walgreens "are an important step in our efforts to hold pharmacy defendants accountable for their role in the opioid epidemic," according to the negotiating team in the National Prescription Opiate Litigation, a group of senior attorneys who have been working on the opioid lawsuits. The settlements with CVS and Walgreens are the most recent in a line of settlements concerning the opioid problem. CVs Price Chart Sources: ft.com, finance.yahoo.com
Saxo Bank And JP Morgan's Negative Views On The Outlook For British Economic Growth

BoE Hikes Interest Rates 75bps, ECB Feeling Post-fed Interest Rate Hike Repercussions, Fed Hikes Interest Rates 75bps

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 03.11.2022 15:49
Summary: The Bank of England increased interest rates by 0.75 percentage points to 3%. The Fed, which has an impact on international markets, must be monitored by the ECB. Jay Powell forewarned that US interest rates may rise higher than anticipated. BoE interest rate hikes The Bank of England increased interest rates by 0.75 percentage points to 3% in order to combat inflation in a way that hasn't been attempted in the past 30 years. The central bank offered unusually strong guidance that interest rates wouldn't need to rise much higher to bring inflation back to its objective of 2%, despite predicting a "particularly tough outlook" with a protracted recession ahead. The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England stated that market estimates for an interest rate peak of 5.25 percent were excessively high. According to the statement, the majority of the committee thought that "additional hikes" could be necessary "for a durable return of inflation to goal, albeit to a peak lower than priced into financial markets." BoE’s latest interest rate hike was was aggressive The BoE's decision followed a similar move by the European Central Bank last week and a 0.75 percentage point increase by the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday. The official interest rate in the UK reached its highest point since late 2008 after being raised to 3%. Aside from a sharply reversible jump on September 16, 1992, often known as "Black Wednesday," it is the biggest increase since 1989. A bigger rise at the meeting "would help to bring inflation back to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, and to minimise the risks of a more lengthy and costly tightening later," according to the meeting minutes, which were approved by seven of the nine MPC members. ⚠️BREAKING:*BANK OF ENGLAND RAISES KEY INTEREST RATE BY 75BPS TO 3.00%, LARGEST RATE HIKE SINCE 1989🇬🇧🇬🇧 pic.twitter.com/A3rx8jpeLz — Investing.com (@Investingcom) November 3, 2022 ECB facing repercussions from aggressive Fed The U.S. Federal Reserve, which has an impact on international markets, must be monitored by the European Central Bank, but it cannot simply copy its policy decisions, according to ECB President Christine Lagarde on Thursday, following the Fed's guidance for even higher interest rates. On Wednesday, the Fed increased its benchmark rate by another 75 basis points. Fed chair Jerome Powell also stated that borrowing costs would need to increase "higher than previously projected" in order to combat inflation, which caused investors to price in additional ECB rate increases as well. But Lagarde argued that because economic conditions in the 19-country euro zone were different from those in the United States (and the ECB itself raised rates by 75 basis points last week), the ECB could not simply mimic the Fed. This point was also made by ECB board member Fabio Panetta and Bank of Italy governor Ignazio Visco. Lagarde acknowledges ECB was affected by the Fed’s actions Lagarde acknowledged that the ECB was "affected by the repercussions" of Fed action on the financial markets, particularly the decline in the value of the euro relative to the dollar on Thursday. Lagarde reiterated her commitment to bringing inflation down to the ECB's 2% objective by stating that "clearly the exchange rate matters and has to be taken into account in our inflation projections." According to ECB data released on Thursday, the interest rate that banks seek from businesses increased by 55 basis points in September, the largest monthly increase since the creation of the euro, to stand at 2.41%. Since 2015, this was the highest. *ECB PRESIDENT LAGARDE: A RECESSION WON'T BE SUFFICIENT TO SETTLE INFLATION🇪🇺🇩🇪🇫🇷🇮🇹🇪🇸🇳🇱 pic.twitter.com/zcfEzCi1ZB — Investing.com (@Investingcom) November 3, 2022 Fed may slow down their interest rate hiking cyc;e Jay Powell forewarned that US interest rates may rise higher than anticipated, but he also left open the prospect that the Federal Reserve might slow down its drive to tighten monetary policy. Speaking after the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage points for the fourth time in a row, Powell cautioned that there was still work to be done in bringing down inflation and cited a number of economic indicators to support his claim. Powell did, however, provide a suggestion that policymakers would be open to adopting a less drastic rise at the Fed's upcoming meeting in December. The following meeting or the one after that may mark the beginning of that period. Powell made a crucial point when he noted that before transitioning to lesser hikes, the Fed did not need to wait for several months of lower inflation data. ⚠️BREAKING:*FED CHAIR POWELL SAYS TIME TO SLOW RATE HIKES MAY COME 'AS SOON AS NEXT MEETING'$DIA $SPY $QQQ 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 — Investing.com (@Investingcom) November 2, 2022 Sources: twitter.com, investing.com, ft.com
Analysis And Trips For Trading The GBP/USD Pair In Short And Long Positions

US Unemployment Rate Increased To 3.7%, UK Private Wealth Portfolios, PBoC Trying To Gain Access To Top Internet Companies Data

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 04.11.2022 14:54
Summary: In the biggest economy in the world, the jobless rate rose from 3.5% to 3.7% last month. The real worth of UK private wealth portfolios decreased by up to one-third. Beijing is working to tighten its control over the nation's digital sector. US Unemployment rate rises In October, the U.S. economy created 261,000 new jobs, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The carefully watched reading from last Friday was lower than the upwardly revised amount of 315,000 in September but still higher above economists' projections of 200,000. In the biggest economy in the world, the jobless rate rose from 3.5% to 3.7% last month. The number was expected to increase to 3.6%, according to economists. However, a jump in the unemployment rate to 3.7% signaled some easing in labor market conditions, which would allow the Federal Reserve to tilt towards smaller interest rate hikes beginning in December. In October, U.S. firms employed more workers than anticipated. 200,000 jobs were predicted by economists surveyed by Reuters, with estimates ranging from 120,000 to 300,000. After rising 5.0% in September due to the removal of previous year's significant increases from the computation, wages climbed by 4.7% annually in October. Additionally, other pay metrics have cooled off, which is positive for inflation. The Fed impact on Unemployment The Fed announced a fresh 75 basis point increase in interest rates on Wednesday and warned that future increases in borrowing costs will be necessary to combat inflation, but it also hinted that it may be nearing the end of the sharpest tightening of monetary policy in 40 years. Because businesses have been replacing workers who would have gone, job growth has remained strong despite a decline in domestic demand and an increase in borrowing prices. However, with recession threats rising, this practice may soon come to an end. According to a poll released by the Institute for Supply Management on Thursday, some businesses in the services sector "are delaying backfilling available positions" because of the unstable economic climate. ⚠️BREAKING:*U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RISES TO 3.7% AS ECONOMY ADDS 261,000 JOBS IN OCTOBER 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/Z0fiqgAI5X — Investing.com (@Investingcom) November 4, 2022 UK Private wealth portfolios under pressure In the first nine months of this year, the real worth of UK private wealth portfolios decreased by up to one-third on average as people's purchasing power was hammered by a combination of investment losses, inflation, and a weak pound. According to research by Asset Risk Consultants (ARC), which examined the performance of strategies employed by more than 100 significant UK wealth managers, UK wealth management portfolios lost about 10% on average in the year ending in September, but price increases and the decline in the value of the pound against the US dollar increased the losses. The numbers demonstrate that for UK investors this year, inflation and currency fluctuations have destroyed much more real value than the concrete losses on investment portfolios. Investors, according to Harrison, frequently think of their wealth in terms of a fixed amount and fail to mentally adapt when the purchasing power of their assets changes. The sector responsible for managing the wealth of wealthy families is predicated on the principle of protecting money, therefore the losses will cause wealth managers and their customers to have difficult conversations. UK private wealth portfolios down by up to a third https://t.co/TnUgAX5XGA — Finance News (@ftfinancenews) November 4, 2022 PBoC trying to control digital sector The Chinese central bank is having trouble persuading more than a dozen top internet companies to meet a deadline in December for sharing user data with state-backed credit-scoring firms. Beijing is working to tighten its control over the nation's digital sector and consumer financing, which is why there is a dispute over who should govern access to the internet companies' enormous troves of user data. According to insiders briefed on the negotiations, the People's Bank of China asked Tencent, Meituan, and other significant platforms to provide user data with two state-backed businesses, Baihang and Pudao, by the beginning of next month. This data includes everything from shopping records to travel histories. PBoC struggles to impose personal data regime on China’s tech groups https://t.co/Olv9Tl3iMK — Finance News (@ftfinancenews) November 4, 2022 Sources: ft.com, investing.com, twitter.com
Apple Stock Price, Microsoft, Amazon And Tesla (TSLA) Added A Lot Since July! How Deep Could EUR/USD Drop?

Telsa (TSLA) stock price has tanked 12% since Musk took control of Twitter (TWTR) on October 27

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 08.11.2022 18:59
Summary: Twitter does not make money like Tesla. The serial entrepreneur made an effort to reassure Tesla's supporters and investors . Investor confidence in Musk is lacking The maker of high-end electric vehicles appears to be going through a similar experience to that of an orphaned kid or a beloved who has fallen from grace. Elon Musk, the company's dynamic and forward-thinking co-founder and CEO, appears to have lost interest in it. Put the blame on Twitter (TWTR), which needs a lot of attention due to its enormous influence on public and political life. While Twitter does not make money like Tesla, it is nonetheless seen as our generation's equivalent of the town square, where trend-setters and opinion leaders congregate. Twitter sets the daily political agenda and the conversational subjects that eventually predominate in mainstream media coverage. Responsibility also comes with this authority. You are responsible for the content management policy, which requires constant vigilance. Any error in the content that is put on the platform has the potential to spark controversy, which can be difficult and time-consuming to resolve. Musk paid too much for Twitter—$44 billion. As part of the leveraged buyout, the billionaire owes around $13 billion in debt, which is secured by his remaining Tesla stock. He has been looking for ways to make money for the social network since he took control on October 27. But as Musk becomes more active on Twitter, Tesla's stock price declines. At the Baron Investment Conference on November 4, the billionaire claimed that since he bought Twitter, his workload had increased from "78 hours a week to perhaps 120." The serial entrepreneur made an effort to reassure Tesla's supporters and investors by claiming that he was still actively involved in the company's management. The message didn't reassure anyone. Since that time, Wall Street has seen a continuous decline in the price of Tesla stock. Tesla shares dropped to $196.66 at the close of trade on November 7—their lowest price in 52 weeks. Since Musk sealed the Twitter agreement on October 27, Tesla stock has fallen 12.4%. Tesla shares have lost a total of 41.2% of their value, or $197.08, since Musk revealed his offer on April 25. This results in a market value decline of about $436 billion. The holding company of renowned investor Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), surpassed Tesla on November 7 to become the sixth-largest corporation in the world by market capitalization. TSLA Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, thestreet.com
The US Dollar Index Is Producing A Reasonable Bullish Divergence

US core and headline inflation data missed market expectations in both the YoY and MoM figures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 10.11.2022 14:42
Summary: The CPI inflation data missed market expectations for October. Initial market reaction in the wake of the release of the data. US CPI data missed market expectations Since the Dollar is struggling to maintain rallies, a significant positive surprise from Thursday's inflation data is necessary for the bulls to retake the lead. Markets anticipated an increase of 0.6% month-over-month for October, bringing the year-over-year gain to 8.0%, slightly less than September's 8.2%, when the U.S. inflation data was revealed at 13:30 GMT. It is anticipated that the crucial core inflation number would come in at 0.5% month over month and 6.5% year over year.   Because the actual number did not match the estimates for both the headline and core inflation rates which are the Fed's preferred measure—however, excludes food and energy—were expected to be lower but still high. Anything above 8% and 6.5%, however, might reverse the recent USD slump and keep the Fed on the hawkish side of things. Since the FOMC meeting last week, the peak rates for the Fed in 2023 have decreased, moving from 5.1% to a level closer to 5%. US CPI inflation MoM came in at 0.3%, missing market expectations and the YoY figure came in at 6.3%, also missing market expectations. This could mean that the halt in the US dollar rally may extend further. The markets reaction to the release of the CPI data The mechanics for the Dollar are straightforward: a beat would have been consistent with a rise as investors are compelled to plan for future interest rate increases from the U.S. Federal Reserve. A negative surprise was expected given the weaker dollar and the idea that "peak rates" have finally been reached. The size of the variance is crucial since it determines how responsive currency markets are. The initial market reaction saw the EUR/USD currency pair strengthened as well as with the GBP/USD pair, S&P 500 dropped and the USD/JPY weakened in the wake of the release of this data. Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
Binance Academy: Coin Burn - What Is It?

FTX crash causing its auditors to come into question

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 14.11.2022 17:45
Summary: FTX had its 2021 financial reports audited. A run on customer deposits began the downfall of FTX. The downfall of the FTX crypto Two US accounting companies that the cryptocurrency exchange claimed it had hired to examine its books have come under scrutiny as a result of FTX's demise. FTX asserted that Armanino, one of the 20 largest accounting companies in the nation by sales, and Prager Metis, which bills itself as the first accounting company to open a headquarters in the metaverse, had audited its 2021 financial reports. Even though the accounting regulations for digital assets are frequently ambiguous and businesses are still in their infancy, the two firms are among many in the US that have professed expertise in digital assets in a bid to seek business from the rising number of crypto enterprises. Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of FTX, hailed the audit of the company's financial results as a turning point last year, but neither the accounts nor the auditors' names were made public until the day before FTX filed for bankruptcy on Friday. When Forbes magazine was putting together a ranking of cryptocurrency exchanges earlier this year, the publication claimed that FTX gave it "a trove of information on its operations, including most of the companies it did business with, when its last audits were, and details on its regulatory licenses." (FTX eventually came in sixth.) FTX accounting firm is in the spotlight Both accounting firms declined to comment on the extent of their work for FTX or the time since they last provided an audit opinion. A run on customer deposits at its international exchange that followed revelations about the exchange's complex connections to other parts of Bankman-crypto Fried's enterprise brought down FTX. According to those acquainted with the company's finances, his trading outfit Alameda Research owing FTX $10 billion this week. FTX token price chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, ft.com
Apple May Surprise Investors. Analysts Advise Caution

European chipmakers seek stability in the wake of new US export restrictions

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 15.11.2022 19:13
Summary: European chipmakers said they are looking for stability for their operations. Washington's export restrictions hinder operations of global supply chains. Chipmakers seeking stability Leading European chipmakers said they are looking for stability for their operations in China as Washington's export restrictions hinder operations of global supply chains. STMicroelectronics, Infineon, and NXP Semiconductors' chief executives stated on Monday that while they are in compliance with Washington's export restrictions against China's semiconductor industry, they do not have any plans to stop doing business in the Asian nation, which has the second-largest economy in the world. One of the largest semiconductor trade fairs in Europe, Electronica in Munich, hosted the CEO Roundtable special event where the remarks were made. Early in October, the US Department of Commerce began a fresh wave of export control measures to limit China's capacity to develop cutting-edge computer and artificial intelligence technology by limiting access to US technologies. As their products for the Chinese market are more about mature chip production technology than the advanced ones targeted by Washington, European companies who supply tools used in chip production, like ASML, and European chipmakers are less affected by the new laws than American companies. Geopolitical unrest for European chipmakers However, European chip companies are concerned that the geopolitical unrest brought on by the escalating hostilities between Washington and Beijing will stymie their business activities in China. The Joe Biden administration reportedly tried to establish a trilateral deal with Japan and the Netherlands on Sunday, according to the Financial Times, in order to make it more challenging for China to produce cutting-edge semiconductors for military applications. Despite the fact that the new regulations have no impact on NXP's operations in China, Sievers said the company has advised its US-based employees to stop communicating with clients who are engaged in the semiconductor manufacturing industry in China since the regulations went into effect last month. Sources: ft.com
Musk testified in Delaware court on Wednesday claiming he had little say in the Tesla payout that helped him become the world's richest man

Musk testified in Delaware court on Wednesday claiming he had little say in the Tesla payout that helped him become the world's richest man

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 16.11.2022 18:54
Summary: Elon Musk testified that he was not involved in the pay negotiations. Shareholders claim the board is made up of Musks ‘pals’. Musk testified on Wednesday On Wednesday, Elon Musk testified that he was not involved in the negotiations among Tesla board members about a 2018 compensation plan that gave him billions in stock options and helped him become the richest person in the world. Speaking in a Wilmington, Delaware courtroom, Mr. Musk rebutted claims made in a shareholder complaint that the board of the electric car company was comprised primarily of his pals and other close associates who carried out his orders. In the lawsuit in which Mr. Musk is testifying, the focus is on a compensation package that provided Mr. Musk stock options that allowed him the ability to purchase nearly $50 billion worth of Tesla shares if the firm fulfilled specific sales, profit, and share price gain benchmarks. The agreement was one of the biggest of its kind at the time, and many other business boards have used it as a model to reward top executives. Attorneys for the shareholder Richard Tornetta, who filed the lawsuit, claim in court filings that Mr. Musk began discussing his remuneration package with Ira Ehrenpreis, the director who oversaw the board's compensation committee, in April 2017. Additionally, the plaintiff's attorneys claimed in court documents that Tesla directors and executives testified that the board did not anticipate Mr. Musk leaving the organization and had not started to find suitable successors to him. The company's shares started rising substantially more than a year after the 2018 Tesla compensation agreement was implemented, increasing from about $21 to a record of about $410 in November 2021. Since then, it has decreased by roughly 50% and currently costs around $190. Chancellor Kathaleen McCormick of the Delaware Court of Chancery is hearing the issue. She also ruled over the brief legal action Twitter brought against Mr. Musk in July to compel him to complete the acquisition of the social media giant after he attempted to back out of the transaction. Last month, Mr. Musk closed the transaction. TSLA price chart SourceS: finance.yahoo.com, nytimes.com
Every Microsoft Product Will Have A Certain AI-Capability

NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 earnings results outperformed part of the markets forecasts

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 17.11.2022 17:59
Summary: Revenue surpassed analysts' projections, earnings per share lagged behind. Nivida’s Q4 revenue estimates fell short of investor expectations. NVIDIA Q3 earnings The industry leader in graphics chips, Nvidia (NVDA), released its Q3 earnings results after the market closed on Wednesday. While revenue surpassed analysts' projections, earnings per share lagged behind. According to data provided by Bloomberg, the company outperformed Wall Street forecasts in the following areas: revenue ($5.93 billion vs. $5.79 billion projected). EPS after adjustments: $0.58 vs. $0.70 anticipated. Gaming income was $1.57 billion as opposed to the predicted $1.32 billion. Revenue from data centers: $3.83 billion versus $3.7 billion anticipated. With a $6 billion forecast, Nvidia's Q4 sales fell just shy of Wall Street estimates. Analysts anticipated $6.09 billion. Shares of Nvidia increased by about 2% after the revelation. In the quarter, income from data centers increased by about 31% year over year, but revenue from gaming fell by 51%. As consumer and commercial demand for electronics has decreased following the enormous rise the sector experienced during the epidemic, chip stocks have taken a beating this year. After stocking up during shutdowns, consumers don't need as many computers, and businesses already have plenty of equipment for their remote and hybrid workers. The future of NVIDIA Nvidia reduced chip manufacturing in Q2 while CEO Jensen Huang informed investors that the business was attempting to better match inventory to chip demand. During the pandemic, Nvidia's graphics chips were in such great demand that they were fetching hundreds of dollars more than their retail costs. However, as people resumed their pre-pandemic lifestyles, demand for chips decreased and prices returned to normal. Nvidia is also making efforts to maintain its ability to sell its premium goods in China. As a substitute for the A100 chip, which the U.S. government claimed was too potent to be shipped to China, Nvidia started selling its new A800 processor there during Q3 of this year. The administration is concerned that China will employ the technology for military purposes. NVDA Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com
The Special Edition Of The Saxo Market Call Podcast: The Wild Year Of 2022 For Commodities And What May Be In Store In 2023

Oil bounces off a 10-month low on OPEC not considering increasing oil output

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.11.2022 18:58
Summary: Oil prices rose from a 10-month low on Monday. G7 countries are planning to cap the price of Russian crude. OPEC are not planning an increase in oil output After Saudi Arabia "categorically" dismissed a report that Opec was considering an increase in output to help offset the loss of Russian supply, oil prices rose from a 10-month low on Monday. The international standard for crude oil, Brent, initially fell 6% to $82.79 per barrel before reducing its loss to 2% and trading at $85.95. The US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, fell by a similar amount but later pared its losses to trade down about 2% at $78.50. Each benchmark's price fell to its lowest intraday level since January as a result. This was before Russia's invasion of Ukraine upended the world's crude markets and caused prices to skyrocket. After the Wall Street Journal revealed that Saudi Arabia and other Opec producers were debating increasing output by up to 500,000 barrels per day at the group's meeting in Vienna on December 4, the market became volatile. The cartel's de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, later claimed that it was "well known" that no decisions were discussed before meetings. Additionally, it would occur the day before the EU is scheduled to impose an embargo on oil exports from Russia and the G7 countries are planning to cap the price of Russian crude. The US dollar index, which compares the US dollar to six other currencies, increased 1% on Monday, continuing the comeback from the previous week, even though the US dollar is still down roughly 3% for the month of November. The lower-than-expected US inflation number for October and expectations that China might be about to loosen its zero-Covid stance had fueled speculation that the dollar may have peaked in late September. This week, however, investors had less confidence in the latter after the provincial capitals of Shijiazhuang and Guangzhou implemented stricter Covid controls to reduce cases. Sources: ft.com
Czech National Bank preview: the end of a hawkish era

Elon Musk net worth has dropped by 37% in 2022

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 22.11.2022 19:46
Summary: Musk hasn't been the same since he lost his position at the $200 billion club. Tesla shares are being weighed down by Musk’s twitter takeover. Musk’s fortune is declining with Teslas share value He was the only member for more than ten months of the world's most exclusive financial club, which has never had more than two members present at once. Up until a few weeks ago, the CEO of Tesla - Get Free Report and owner of the microblogging website Twitter had been a frequent visitor there. The $200 billion club that is. Musk hasn't been the same since he lost his position there. If the eccentric visionary is still the richest man in the world, his money has been declining. According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Musk possessed a fortune of $170 billion as of Nov. 21. But this year, his net worth dropped by $101 billion, or 37%. Since Musk announced his takeover attempt on April 25, Tesla shares have dropped nearly 50% to $167.87, resulting in a $525 billion decline in market capitalization. Tesla shares have fallen 25% after the billionaire closed the Twitter transaction on October 27, representing a loss in market value of $180 billion in less than a month. The price of Tesla shares is down 52.4% overall for the year. Since Musk took on $13 billion in personal debt to fund the acquisition, his early moves at Twitter produced confusion, which made it even harder for him to turn the site profitable as soon as possible. He implemented waves of layoffs, issued a deadline to workers, and reactivated the account of former President Donald Trump, who had been blocked by the social network following the events of January 6, 2021 on Capitol Hill. Two-thirds of the staff, or 5,000 workers, left as a result of all this. The seasoned businessman recently said that since gaining control of Twitter, he had little time to sleep. The ongoing decrease in Tesla stock, which accounts for a sizable portion of Musk's wealth, is hurting him. Sources: finance.yahoo.com, thestreet.com

Wealthy clients are withdrawing assets from Credit Suisse accounts

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 23.11.2022 18:48
Summary: Wealthy clients have withdrawn up to 10% of their assets from Credit Suisse. The bank has been using liquidity buffers. Credit Suisse stocks are suffering. Credit suisse stock price is taking a dive Since the beginning of October, wealthy clients have withdrawn up to 10% of their assets, according to the troubled Swiss bank Credit Suisse, which has estimated a pre-tax loss of up to SFr1.5 billion ($1.6 billion) for the fourth quarter. The bank stated in its fourth profit warning since January that the size of the client outflows, which came after a series of social media rumors about its financial health, had caused the bank to use up liquidity buffers at the group and legal entity level. According to Credit Suisse, it "fell short of some legal entity-level regulatory criteria." According to the statement, the wealth management division has experienced outflows totaling roughly SFr63.5 billion, or 10% of the assets under management at the end of the third quarter. The bank lost about SFr84 billion ($89 billion) in assets across the board as clients in wealth management, asset management, and retail banking switched their cash holdings, investments, and deposits to rivals. According to the statement, the wealth management division has experienced withdrawals totaling roughly SFr63.5 billion, or 10% of the assets under control at the end of the third quarter. The bank also reaffirmed its capital ratio guideline from last month, which aimed for a common equity tier one ratio of more than 13.5% by 2025 and at least 13% from 2023 to 2025 as a measure of financial stability. It did, however, show that since the end of September, the liquidity capital ratio, which measures a company's capacity to absorb short-term stress, had dropped from 192% to a daily average of 140%. Regulators mandate that the bank maintain a percentage above 100%. CS Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, ft.com
Euro eyes Services PMIs

Twitter’s closure of Brussels headquarters raises concerns

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 24.11.2022 15:52
Summary: Elon Musk shut down Twitter's entire Brussels headquarters. Concerns about whether twitter has the manpower to ensure adherence to local legislation. Twitter sparking online safety issues After a disagreement over how the social network's content should be regulated in the Union, Elon Musk shut down Twitter's entire Brussels headquarters. According to the Financial Times, Julia Mozer and Dario La Nasa, who were in charge of Twitter's digital policy in Europe, left the business last week. The executives were instrumental in getting the business to abide by the landmark EU Digital Services Act, which went into effect last week and established new guidelines for Big Tech companies to protect users' privacy online. At the beginning of the month, other executives had already left the tiny Brussels headquarters after Elon Musk cut the number of employees in the company in half, from 7,500 to about 3,750, in the weeks following his £38 billion takeover. The CEO of Tesla and SpaceX tweeted that "the bird is liberated" after completing his platform acquisition. Thierry Breton, a European commissioner, curtly reminded everyone of the EU's content-moderation standards shortly after that and said, "In Europe, the bird will fly by our rules." As he began a hiring push, Mr. Musk had previously stated that Twitter's recent round of layoffs would end this week. Twitter’s global legislation The departures from Brussels are indicative of a global trend that started in India and moved to France, where regional Twitter executives who held important positions dealing with government officials suddenly left the company in recent weeks as a result of sweeping layoffs. This has raised concerns about whether the business has the manpower to ensure adherence to local legislation intended to monitor internet material, raising the possibility of legal action and regulatory action against the business. Data showing a 5% annual decline in hate speech removals from Twitter was released by the European Commission on Thursday. These problems come as Musk's attempts to overhaul Twitter's operations have encountered difficulties, particularly with regard to the user identity verification process. Sources: finance.yahoo.com, ft.com
Avalanche (AVAX) Lost 12% After Being Accused Of Paying For Slander Reputation!

Meta fined by Irish regulators amidst privacy concerns

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 28.11.2022 19:04
Summary: Meta has frequently been the target of privacy regulators around the world. Irish privacy authorities announced a fine for Meta. Meta fined by Ireland’s privacy authority Ireland's privacy authority has fined Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, €265 million for its treatment of user data, bringing the total amount the technology giant has been fined by European regulators to close to €1 billion. The Irish Data Protection Commission's announcement of the fine on Monday brings to a close an investigation that began in April of last year after information about more than 500 million Facebook and Instagram users was posted online. Since the company's European headquarters are located in Dublin, Ireland's data watchdog frequently leads the charge in Europe. Meta has frequently been the target of privacy regulators around the world. The most recent punishment is a further setback for Meta, which earlier this month let go more than 11,000 employees as it restructured its operations in response to a decrease in revenues and intense competition from rivals like TikTok. From $10.39 billion the year before, Meta's net income decreased to $6.69 billion. The Irish fine is related to a feature that allows users to import contacts from their phones into the Facebook or Instagram app in order to find friends and acquaintances. 2019 saw the publication on a hacking forum of the personal information of 533 million people from 106 different countries, including names, addresses, and some email addresses. The vulnerability on this feature, where data could be gathered by outside parties through a procedure called scraping, was later fixed by Facebook. Companies who violate the bloc's privacy laws risk fines of up to 4% of their global revenue. Other countries have pursued privacy violations as well. The largest ever fine for violating the EU's GDPR regulations was levied against Amazon last year by Luxembourg, who fined the company €746 million for violating data privacy laws. Meta Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, ft.com
Asia Morning Bites - 29/07/22

HSBC to sell its Canadian operations for $10 billion to the Royal Bank of Canada

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 29.11.2022 19:28
Summary: HSBC has agreed to sell its Canadian operations to RBC. HSBC’s share price increased on Tuesday. RBC's acquisition represents the country's first significant domestic transaction in ten years. HSBC to sell its canadian operations to RBC As the lender curtails its global network outside of Asia in response to demands from its largest investor to separate, HSBC has agreed to sell its Canadian operations to Royal Bank of Canada for $10 billion. On hearing about the purchase, HSBC's shares increased by over 5%. The bank also indicated that it would return some of the proceeds to investors. With the acquisition, RBC gained 130 locations and more than 780,000 retail and business clients. If authorities accept the merger, RBC, who is now Canada's largest lender by assets, would strengthen its position. The biggest stakeholder at HSBC, the Chinese insurer Ping An, has been exerting consistent pressure on Quinn and chair Mark Tucker to separate the bank's Asian and western operations. In an era of hostile US-China geopolitics, Ping An has criticized the bank for years of subpar performance, chronically high costs, and a declining share price, arguing that the bank can no longer efficiently operate by straddling east and west. The sale in Canada comes after comparable divestitures of unprofitable consumer businesses in France and the US. When HSBC sold its French retail network to Cerberus for €1 last year, it suffered a $3 billion loss. The business was Canada's sixth-largest bank with assets of CAD134 billion, and RBC's acquisition of it represents the country's first significant domestic transaction in ten years. Most lenders have chosen to expand in the US instead of Canada due to concerns about competition in that country's highly consolidated banking sector. BNP Paribas and Bank of Montreal reached an agreement last year to sell the San Francisco-based Bank of the West for $16.3 billion. HSBC Price Chart Sources: ft.com, finance.yahoo.com
The Markets Still Hope That The Fed May Consider Softer Decision

Eurozone inflation declines for the first time in 17 months indicating that a peak has been reached

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 30.11.2022 19:09
Summary: Latest eurozone inflation reading could suggest a peak has been reached. Eurozone inflation came in at 10% for October. The ECB is expected to raise rates by 0.5 percentage points. Eurozone inflation may have reached its peak The European Central Bank (ECB) may be able to switch to smaller interest rate increases next month as a result of the eurozone's inflation declining for the first time in 17 months and suggesting that the largest price spike in a generation has peaked. According to data released by the EU's statistics agency on Wednesday, a slowdown in energy and services prices led inflation in the single currency bloc to fall more than predicted to 10% in November, down from a record 10.6% in October. Recently, there has been increased optimism that inflation in the eurozone is falling due to a decline in wholesale energy prices in Europe and the alleviation of supply chain bottlenecks. Additionally, US inflation decreased in October, and worldwide data signs point to the pinnacle of this year's raging global inflation. The ECB is expected to raise rates by 0.5 percentage points when its governing council meets on December 15 after two consecutive 0.75 point increases, according to economists, as a result of the slowing rate of inflation in the eurozone. However, price rise in the region is still above the ECB's 2% target, and some officials contend that in order to prevent a harmful wage-price spiral from taking root, rates must be rapidly raised even as inflation slows. The widely watched core inflation rate, which excludes more erratic energy and food costs to provide analysts with a clearer picture of underlying pricing pressures, remained steady at 5%. Sources: ft.com, twitter.com
Federal Reserve splits highlighted by May FOMC minutes

US labour market data deliver us with NFP print of 223K. BlackRock, JP Morgan and Citigroup to announce their earnings on Friday

Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 09.01.2023 17:28
Friday's jobs data in the US, and more specifically, the market reaction to Friday's jobs data helped stock markets to record their best boost since more than a month on Friday. However, Friday's jobs report was rather... mixed, and spurred a lot of discussions and debates regarding whether the data was soft enough to convince the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials that the inflation battle is over, or it was strong enough to make them further scratch their heads.   The NFP printed 223'000 nonfarm job additions last month versus 200'000 expected by analysts.   But the average job additions for the last three months of last year was a touch below 250'000, down from 366'000 from the prior three-month stretch, and less than half of around 540'000 jobs added each month in the first quarter of 2022.   Plus, the tech industry shed job - in line with the headlines we have been reading since months. Goldman just announce it will be cutting 3200 positions, on top of 18'000 job cuts announced by Amazon last week, among others.   So, the trend in the US jobs market is on a slowing path, even though, monthly job addition prints above 200'000 are far from numbers you expect to see in recession.   Read next: Current market gains could be partly due to people returning from holiday breaks and reentering the market, leading to increased demand and trading activity| FXMAG.COM But that's the good news. The Fed is not looking to push the US economy into recession for fun, it wants to see the jobs market tighter because, in theory, a tighter jobs market should help ease inflation.  But if inflationary pressures ease with little negative impact on jobs, that's what we call the goldilocks scenario: a soft-landing from the ultra-supportive monetary policy euphoria, easing inflation without too much pain on jobs market.  In other words, it's jackpot for the Fed!   This is why, the US markets gave such a strong positive reaction to Friday's jobs data. Both the US 2 and 10-year yields fell more than 4% after the data, pulling the US dollar index lower along with them. The S&P500 jumped around 2.30%, while Nasdaq 100 rallied near 2.80%.   Gold price boosted by lower US yields Gold reached our $1880 per ounce medium term target, boosted by lower US yields, which made the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing gold lower, and increased appetite.   But we should still not forget one thing: the US economy added around 4.5 million jobs last year- That was the second best year on record after 2021 – where 6.4 million Americans found jobs following the pandemic-shattered economy. The unemployment data hit 3.5%, a multi-decade low, and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that the central bank still needs to keep raising the rates despite the cooler-than-expected wages data.  'Good' bad news is that the December services PMI fell to below 50, the contraction zone, in December, adding some more evidence that the US economic activity is slowing. And that's something that the Fed is happy to hear.   Activity on Fed funds futures now price in a 25bp hike at the next FOMC meeting at around 75%, but the Fed has not hesitated to disappoint markets since last year to cool down the optimism and send the stocks to turmoil. So the dovish pricing in Fed expectations make the latest gains a bit bitter-sweet, as the slightest news, or hints that the Fed would not step back from its hawkish tone could vanish the latest rally.   Read next: We are preparing to see the S&P500 decline in the first weeks of the new year down to 3600 | FXMAG.COM So, this week's US inflation data will be key in either giving the bulls a further boost or bringing back the bears with revenge.   On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell  will speak, and he may not hesitate to abate the Fed doves on rate expectations.  On Thursday, the US CPI data will likely reveal an encouraging easing. The US CPI is expected to have eased to 6.5% in December from 7.1% printed a month earlier, and from 9.1% printed last summer. If that's the case, the rapid fall in inflation figures could further boost the Fed hawks and help stocks and bonds extend rally, and the dollar extend drop. But if we see a smaller easing in December inflation, or a figure higher than last month's, the latest gains could rapidly vanish.   Earnings season kicks off Earnings season kicks off this week, with Jefferies and Tilray due to report their latest earnings today, Bed, Bath and Beyond – which warned last week that it could go bankrupt – is due to reveal its latest results on Tuesday, while JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Blackrock, Citigroup, Bank of New York and Delta Air Lines will announce their Q4 earnings on Friday.  For banks, investors will focus on the level of bad loan provisions and mortgages, as rising interest rates are good for earnings, but higher-than-expected interest rates threaten credit quality, loan growth, and net interest margins.
Eurozone PMI dropped in May due to manufacturing contraction

The outlook for P&G could improve even if this week's results, when it is expected to report its first year-on-year drop in sales since 2017 and the second consecutive quarter of lower earnings, could be rough

Josh Warner Josh Warner 18.01.2023 11:27
Earnings season is underway. This week we've already met revenues of Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan and other companies. On Thursday, it's over to Procter&Gamble and Netflix. Netflix started to grow its subscriber base once again in the third quarter when it added 2.4 million users and it has said it expects this to accelerate to 4.5 million additions in the fourth, giving it the opportunity to show it is back on a steadier path of growth. The number of additions will prove highly influential on how markets react. An acceleration from the previous quarter would help install confidence that growth is reaccelerating while a slowdown would fuel fears that this is just a temporary rebound. However, not everyone is convinced it can deliver this week, with some analysts predicting this could come in as low as 2.7 million subscribers. It will be more difficult for investors to gauge which direction subscriber numbers are headed going forward. Netflix will no longer be providing guidance for paid net additions as it focuses on its financials and introduces new pricing tiers. Read next: Matt Weller (City Index): Even if inflation continues to moderate, Madame Lagarde and company are likely to opt for at least one 50bps rate hike to start the year| FXMAG.COM Netflix shares have popped over 90% since hitting five-year lows last year, but it will need to impress this week if it wants to keep up the momentum. The rally in recent months has been underpinned by high expectations for its advertising business and the crackdown on the 100 million households thought to be watching Netflix for free by using other people's passwords. Both are seen as critical catalysts for Netflix to reinvigorate growth in 2023 but it could be a slow and steady build, which may leave investors disappointed in the meantime if subscriber growth falls below expectations. Earnings are set to decline in 2022 for the first time in seven years but they are forecast to return to growth in 2023, when Wall Street believes Netflix will add 14 million paid subscribers. Analysts forecast P&G will report a 1.2% drop in revenue to $20.7 billion in the second quarter of its financial year and a 4.1% fall in EPS to $1.59 The outlook for P&G could improve even if this week's results, when it is expected to report its first year-on-year drop in sales since 2017 and the second consecutive quarter of lower earnings, could be rough. Analysts forecast P&G will report a 1.2% drop in revenue to $20.7 billion in the second quarter of its financial year and a 4.1% fall in EPS to $1.59. While beauty is expected to remain strong with a further acceleration in organic growth to 5%, demand for grooming, healthcare, homecare and its array of other products is slowing down. Lower volumes are being countered by rising prices. China's emergence from Covid-19 provides an opportunity for its prospects to improve and earnings are forecast to return to growth over the coming quarters. P&G is currently anticipating a 1% to 3% fall in annual revenue (with organic growth of 3% to 5%) and a 4% increase in EPS.
El Ninõ could harm world economy. This week Costco, Splunk and Autodesk report their earnings

Microsoft earnings: The world's largest software maker reports FY23 Q2 earnings (ending 31 December) tomorrow after the market close with analysts expecting revenue growth slowing to 2.3% y/y

Peter Garnry Peter Garnry 23.01.2023 22:22
It's definitely an action-packed week. Major US tech stocks publish they earnings reports. Peter Garnry, Head of Equity Strategy, talks Microsoft report. Microsoft's share price is down 29% from its peak and the equity valuation has fallen to a 3.6% free cash flow yield which is slightly above the US 10-year yield Microsoft sees margin pressure: The world's largest software maker reports FY23 Q2 earnings (ending 31 December) tomorrow after the market close with analysts expecting revenue growth slowing to 2.3% y/y down from 20.1% y/y one year ago and down from 10.6% y/y revenue growth in the previous quarter. While the strong USD is obviously impacting foreign income the macroeconomic headwinds are also impacting customer activity. We expect the macro headwinds to impact the Windows and cloud businesses driven by lower PC sales and a slowdown in enterprise software spending. In addition to slowing revenue growth increased energy costs to its data centers and wage pressures will continue to put Microsoft's operating margin under pressure. EBITDA margin is expected to decline to 45.6% in FY23 Q2 down from 49.8% in the previous quarter and 50.7% a year ago. Analysts expect EPS of $2.30 down 6% y/y. Microsoft's share price is down 29% from its peak and the equity valuation has fallen to a 3.6% free cash flow yield which is slightly above the US 10-year yield with the difference being that these free cash flows are not fixed unlike those coupons on government bonds. Read next: Saxo's Market Strategist: Australia's ASX200 could likely to take out a new all-time high. However CPI is a focus this week| FXMAG.COM
McD earnings: McDonald's Corporation saw an increase in sales worldwide, including in the US, Europe, Australia, China, and Japan

McDonald's earnings: Currently, it is anticipated by several analysts that the EPS forecast for the quarter ending December 2022 is $2.44

Gary Thomson Gary Thomson 26.01.2023 11:11
We're past Microsoft and Tesla earnings, so now it's over to other big names - McDonald's and Apple, which reveal their earnings next week, on January 31st and February 2nd respectively. Gary Thomson, Chief Operating Officer at FXOpen UK, shares his thoughts on both companies' performance. FXMAG.COM: Earnings season is underway: what do you expect from McDonald's and Apple next week? Gary Thomson, Chief Operating Officer at FXOpen UK: Over the past five days, McDonald's shares have been reasonably stable in value, apart from a sudden dip at 9.30am on January 24 during the US trading session, which caused the price to go down from $269 per share to $248 in a very short space of time. This recovered almost immediately and just 30 minutes later it was back to $269 which it remains at today. Taking a slightly longer view, McDonald's shares have been trading at relatively high values since November 2022 compared to earlier in the year, and have maintained their value ever since. Currently, it is anticipated by several analysts that the EPS forecast for the quarter ending December 2022 is $2.44. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $2.23. The analysts which have so far provided a forecast have estimated a median target of 294.00, with a high estimate of 328.00 and a low estimate of 250.00, which is a considerable increase of around 9.3% on average from the previous median price. If this comes to fruition, it is entirely possible that the stock could at least hold its high position, or even raise in value a little more. If the latter takes place, it would place McDonald's stock at the higher end of its average values for the past 12 months. Read next: Whereas a year ago, inflation was at a 50 year high, and double figures were being approached, inflation in the United States had declined to 6.5 percent in December | FXMAG.COM As far as Apple is concerned, the last few months have not been ideal for US tech stocks in general, with many of them having declined in value over a 12 month period compared to their values at the beginning of the year 2022. Some large Silicon Valley firms have recently announced significant staff redundancies, which despite being a sign of hard times, has recovered their share prices due to potential cost savings. Apple could potentially be in the same category as those who have looked to save during hard times such as Alphabet (Google) and Meta (Facebook). The estimated median target for the forthcoming earnings report for the fourth quarter of 2022 shows that analysts think that a healthy 20%  increase in median target is possible for Apple, and whilst Apple has not been immune to the tech stock slowdown, its values have been climbing over the period of the past 30 days, which is encouraging.
EXMO.COM analyst: Currently, Tesla is still trying to conquer the market by prioritising revenue over profit

Tesla reports decent results. EPS reaches $1.19, operating profit hit $3.9bn

Pawel Zapolski Pawel Zapolski 26.01.2023 16:21
Elon Musk 's company showed good, and sometimes record-breaking results. Overall, it did not disappoint analysts. The Q4 2022 report was touted by the media as the most important earnings release in Tesla's history. And it turns out that it was very successful, just like the whole of 2022. In the fourth quarter of last year Tesla generated the highest quarterly revenue in history, as well as operating profit and net profit. Throughout 2022, Tesla's revenue grew 51% y/y to $81.5 billion, and profit doubled to $12.6 billion. Importantly, the results of Elon Musk's company generally did not disappoint analysts. Earnings per share for the fourth quarter was $1.19, versus analysts' expectations of $1.13. Operating profit reached $3.9 billion, up from $3.7 billion in the third quarter, and analysts expected $4.2 billion. Tesla maintains margins, focuses on cost reduction Tesla's operating margin was 16.8% in full-year 2022, 16% in Q4 alone. Operating profit in the entire 2022 amounted to USD 13.7 billion, and in the fourth quarter alone USD 3.9 billion. Tesla's operating margin compared to the automotive industry and S&P500   Source: company However, the results for the first quarter do not have to be so great . Recall that in early 2023, Tesla dramatically reduced the prices of its EVs around the world. Why? Due to the gloomy macroeconomic environment, which has created uncertainty around the demand for expensive electric cars and doubts about the stability of Tesla's profit margin. Read next: McDonald's earnings: Currently, it is anticipated by several analysts that the EPS forecast for the quarter ending December 2022 is $2.44 | FXMAG.COM “As we enter 2023, we are aware of unfavorable macroeconomic conditions. However, our team is used to challenges. We are accelerating cost reduction and want to increase production efficiency,” Tesla wrote in the report. Tesla - financial results on an annual basis  Source: company Tesla produces and delivers more and more cars In 2022, Tesla delivered a record 1.31 million cars to customers (an increase of 40% y/y). It produced 1.37 million vehicles, 47% more than in 2021. Tesla plans to produce 1.8 million cars this year. Wall Street expected 1.9 million units. Tesla assures that in the coming years it has a plan to increase production at an average annual rate of 50%. She also assured that production of the Cybertruck at Gigafactory Texas should begin this year. Interestingly, last year Tesla has significantly increased the number of vehicle charging stations. It went up by 35% y/y to 4.7k. Tesla - operational data (annual basis) Source: company
Aramco's decision to increase its payout is an interesting move that comes despite a sharp drop in oil prices over the last 12 months

Shell has been an exception to the rule of energy companies generally doing better last year, particularly in the final quarter

M4Markets Analysis M4Markets Analysis 31.01.2023 16:42
Naturally this week Google, Apple and McDonald's have been the centre of attention, but we shouldn't forget about Shell - one of energy sector companies, which, in 2022, performed really well. However, according to M4Markets, Shell has been an exception... FXMAG.COM: It's been a good year for energy companies - what do you expect from Shell earnings?  M4Markets: Shell has been an exception to the rule of energy companies generally doing better last year, particularly in the final quarter. The prelude facility suffered an outage that led to a reduction in LNG liquefaction volumes. Additionally, it suffered delays in developing a field in Mexico. Most recently, the company announced a restructuring under its new CEO, Wael Sawwan, to simplify the executive structure and reduce costs, and likely to see some (minor) job cuts. Those moves point towards the company having some cost pressures, particularly in the context of increased windfall taxes from 25% to 35%, which are expected to have a £1.7bn impact on UK and EU profits this quarter but a potentially more prominent impact on the next. Guidance is likely to be in focus, particularly on capital expenditures, as some companies have opted to pass on the windfall gains to their shareholders, helping support stock prices.  Last year's Black Friday was record-breaking, but what about the year 2022 as a whole. Was it good enough to let Amazon exceed earnings expectations?  After Amazon announced several cost-cutting initiatives, including 18000 job cuts, analysts have become less optimistic about the company's sales. Particularly considering retail sales numbers in numerous countries have come in lower than expected in the key holiday month, with growth in North America offset by contraction in its international business; lower expectations means it's easier to have a surprise beat. Read next: Samsung Demand For Semiconductors And Smartphones Remains Weak| FXMAG.COM On the other hand, a hefty share of Amazon's revenue now comes from AWS, its cloud division. Towards the end of last year, the cloud saw a significant slowing in demand, which could be 'the' surprise for Amazon's earnings. But maybe - and this is rather unlikely, rivals saw a drop in demand because there was a significant uptake at AWS, which could provide the surprise beat. Amazon's measures to support profit margins recently suggest the earnings won't be all that good, but that might get rescued by improved guidance if the cost-cutting allows for improved profitability later in the year.
El Ninõ could harm world economy. This week Costco, Splunk and Autodesk report their earnings

Alphabet publishes its earnings today. Q4 EPS expected to reach $1.18

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 02.02.2023 14:11
Already today, in the late evening hours, we will know the financial results of another technological giant from Wall Street - Alphabet , which is the operator of i.a. Google and YouTube services. The results for the previous, third quarter of last year, did not impress and turned out to be noticeably lower than analysts' expectations. Alphabet 's revenue growth then fell to its lowest level since 2013. What can we expect from the publication of the report for the last quarter and the entire year 2022? What are the expectations of the technological giant? Summary: analysts expect earnings per share in the fourth quarter of $1.18 estimated revenue is $76.07 billion, up just 1% year-on-year however, in the last quarter of 2022, significant drops in the dollar quotation may work in favor of the company in pre- session trading, Alphabet 's quotations increase by more than 1% (price above 100 USD) Alphabet results for 2022 Analysts' expectations for Google's parent company are not too high - the market consensus assumes an increase in revenues to USD 76.07 billion , i.e. 1% compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. Estimated earnings per share (EPS) Alphabet traded at $1.18, down from $1.53 a year earlier (EPS was $30.69 then, while Alphabet did a 20:1 stock split last July ). In pre-market trading , Alphabet's stock is up over 1% and is trading above $100. As a reminder - throughout 2022, the company behind Google recorded a decrease in the share price by less than 40%, but in January, Alphabet 's shares recorded an increase of over 10%. Read next: Resumption Of Cooperation Between Airbus And Qatar Airways| FXMAG.COM Alpahet last week announced a reduction of more than 6% of the company's full-time jobs, which means the layoffs of more than 12,000 employees . The decision was justified by the fact that in previous years Google recorded above-average growth dynamics, which is impossible to maintain in the current economic reality. New employees were hired in a different economic environment, which is now much less friendly to technology companies. Google joined companies such as Meta Platforms , Microsoft and Amazon with job cuts . When will we know the Google results? Alphabet will publish financial statements for the fourth quarter and full year 2022 after Thursday's trading session on February 2 at 2 p.m. 22 Polish time. It is worth recalling that the technology concern, which is the operator of, among others, Google and YouTube services , in the previous quarter (Q3 2022) fell below analysts' expectations , both in terms of revenue and profitability. In the third quarter of 2022 Alphabet achieved sales revenue of USD 69.09 billion against expectations of over USD 70.5 billion. Revenues were higher than those in Q3 2021 (USD 65.12 billion), but only by 6%. For comparison, in the third quarter of 2021, the dynamics of revenue growth exceeded 40%. Third-quarter net income was also lower than forecast at $13.91 billion, with earnings per share of $1.06. Analysts had expected an EPS of $1.25. For comparison, in the third quarter of 2021, Alphabet had a net profit of just under $19 billion, which translated into an EPS of $1.40. At that time, the company explained the below-consensus results with a decrease in advertising revenue and lower marketing expenditures on the part of advertisers, which was particularly visible in the results of YouTube itself - advertising revenue slightly exceeded USD 7 billion, which meant a 2% year-on-year decrease, while the market consensus assumed an increase of 3% on an annual basis. Alphabet's total ad revenue was $54.48 billion in the quarter, up from $53.13 billion a year earlier. The result above expectations was recorded only by Google Cloud services - revenues in the third quarter amounted to USD 6.87 billion, compared to the expected USD 6.69 billion and USD 4.99 billion achieved a year earlier.
El Ninõ could harm world economy. This week Costco, Splunk and Autodesk report their earnings

Disney shares slipped to their lowest levels since March 2020 at the end of last year in the wake of their Q4 numbers back in November

Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 06.02.2023 11:46
AstraZeneca FY 22 – 09/02 –. back in November AstraZeneca raised its profit guidance for the year, as well as returning to profitability in Q3. Revenues for the quarter rose by 11% to $10.98bn, driving year to date revenues up to $33.14bn, with the addition of the Alexion business also helping to drive the improvement. Q3 profits came in at $1.67c a share with growth across all of its business areas helping to drive the improvements. Since then, AstraZeneca has managed to get EU approval for its Enhertu, Imfinzi and Lynparza combo drugs. Over the last three months the company has secured two separate deals to enhance its offering in the COPD space by securing a $402m deal with C4X Discovery to develop a treatment for COPD and other respiratory illnesses. AstraZeneca also signed a separate deal to acquire Neogene Therapeutics for $320m. Unlike C4X Discovery, Neogene is a biotech company which focuses on the discovery, development and manufacture of T-cell receptor therapies which target cancer cells specifically. In early January AstraZeneca shares hit record highs, but have since slipped back quite sharply on the back of some profit taking Read next: Unilever earnings: The company said it now expects full year underlying sales growth to be above 8%| FXMAG.COM Disney Q1 23 – 08/02 – Disney shares slipped to their lowest levels since March 2020 at the end of last year in the wake of their Q4 numbers back in November. Revenues came in short of expectations at $20.15bn, while profits came in at $0.30c a share, short of the $0.53c expected. The revenues number was well below Q3's $21.5bn which perhaps shouldn't be too surprising given that Q4 tends to see a drop-off anyway. The parks business in Q4 generated $7.43bn, a 36% increase on last year but below estimates of $7.59bn, with some of that shortfall probably due to the impact of Hurricane Ian which saw the parks take a $65m hit. On subscribers the picture was slightly better, adding 14.6m, 5m above forecasts with Disney+ the main driver, with 12.1m new adds, pushing the total to 164.2m subscribers. That still puts it behind Netflix, although when ESPN and Hulu are added to the numbers, they exceed Netflix. The streaming business is still very much a loss leader, losing $1.5bn during the quarter, with Disney saying it expects to be profitable by 2024. At some point this cash burn will need to subside with returning CEO Bob Iger set to draw a line under the Chapek era, with ongoing chatter that Iger will look at reorganising how the film and TV studios divisions will work in the wake of the Fox acquisition. Management is facing shareholder pressure, namely under the guise of Nelson Peltz to get a handle on costs.        
CMC Markets' Hewson: April CPI numbers are the next key benchmark feeding into whether the next meeting will see the Federal Reserve hit the pause button

In today's Saxo Market Call - US dollar, Q1 earnings season, metals, commodities and more

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 14.04.2023 15:37
Summary:  Today we look at the market posting a strong session as US data was benign and as the US dollar rolled over to new cycle lows. Hard to read too much into local price action, however, as we await the Q1 earnings season kick-off today with the large US banks reporting and a heavy earnings calendar next week. We also delve into metals and commodity performance generally here, the end of the EuroDollar futures market as SOFR futures take over, the macro calendar for the week ahead and much more. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Read next: Raw sugar traded in NY and White sugar in London both trade near a decade high on persistent worries about tight global supplies | FXMAG.COM   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: Podcast: Market in goldilocks mode, with massive earnings week ahead. | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Would Federal Reserve (Fed) go for two more rate hikes this year? Non-voting Bullard say he would back such variant

Crude oil prices stabilised after Fed's Bullard's comments. Tomorrow Nokia, Volvo and American Express report their earnings

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 19.04.2023 12:35
Summary:  Markets are in a holding pattern as earnings season unfolds and the S&P 500 price action remains bottled up near the 4,200 resistance, with a small cluster of large cap names having driven most of the gains this year. A host of regional US banks, both large and small, will report their earnings in the coming two days and should help the market gauge the status of the ongoing stress on banks as depositors seek higher yields. What is our trading focus? US equities (US500.I and USNAS100.I) are treading water US equity markets are losing a bit of momentum with the S&P 500 futures treading water in yesterday’s session and headed lower in early trading hours today. Netflix earnings after the close was not a positive catalyst as the guidance was on the weak side. US bond yields are steadily climbing here, and the Fed rate cuts priced in for later this year are slowly being reduced as the market is adjusting its inflation and rates outlook higher as more recent data points are suggesting the economy is still humming along. The big focus in US equities is later tonight with Tesla reporting Q1 earnings after the close. Chinese equities (HK50.I & 02846:xhkg) edge down, driven by property developers Hang Seng Index shed more than half a percent, driven by weaknesses in property developers, EV, and sportswear names. After another round of intervention by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to sell the US dollar in support of the Hong Kong dollar to prevent it from weakening beyond 7.85, the interbank liquidity measure, aggregate balance, fell to HKD49.23 billion, its lowest level in 15 years. The draining of liquidity stirred up fears of Hong Kong dollar interest rising to narrow the gap with the USD interest rates and weighed on interest rate-sensitive local property developers. Macao casino operators bucked the decline following a leading investment bank calling for sustained revenue recovery of the sector. In A-shares, CSI300 slid 0.4%, with property names leading the decline. On the other hand, semiconductors, co-packaged optics (CPO), and media stocks gained. FX: USD sideways, GBP and NZD eye CPI The US dollar rally from Friday reversed course yesterday as treasury yields went sideways and risk sentiment remained steady as US equities threaten the highs for the year. Upside for the greenback likely needs support from a combination of higher yields toppling risk sentiment, or risk sentiment stumbling badly because of fears of an economic slowdown. Most of the US data this week is second-tier stuff, although we are on watch for other regional manufacturing surveys (April Philly Fed up tomorrow and expected at fairly dire –19.2 after –23.2 in March) after the huge Empire Manufacturing number on Monday, and especially if confirmed by the preliminary April S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI on Friday. The market may be sensitive to big surprises in the weekly claims tomorrow as well. Meanwhile, NZD has stabilized a bit ahead of its Q1 CPI print tonight, and the UK’s CPI data is out this morning (see quick report tomorrow, as it is breaking just before we publish). Read next: Suprisingly, Nikkei 225 is still more than 30% below its ATH (printed in 1989)| FXMAG.COM Crude oil awaits the next catalyst Crude oil prices steadied after hawkish comments from Fed’s Bullard and demand concerns, especially for diesel fuel which powers heavy machinery such as truck and construction equipment, were offset by China’s strong Q1 GDP data. Oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region will resume this week according to the Iraqi PM. Ahead of today’s US stock report the API reported an across-the-board and price supportive drop in crude and fuel stocks. Apart from stock levels the market will also be focusing on export, production and fuel demand in today’s report. Having failed to build on the OPEC+ production news a couple of weeks of ago, the market could now be exposed to some long liquidation from recently established longs. Brent is currently trading below $85, and a break below $83.50 could prompt a fresh attempt to close the gap down to $80 (for WTI, between $79 and $75.70). Gold and silver drops as rate cuts are being priced away Precious metals trade lower as the SOFR market continues to price away rate cuts this year with Gold (XAUUSD) getting close to challenging the 21-DMA at $1989 while silver Silver (XAGUSD) trades below $25. Both metals have lost some of their recent shine on a combination of overbought markets in need of consolidation and hawkish Fed comments forcing bond yields and the dollar higher. In our latest update we highlight the short-term risks to precious metals while also highlighting the reasons why we believe prices could go higher still. Below $1989 gold will be looking for support at $1957, the 38.2% retracement of the banking-crisis-led runup in prices. Silver meanwhile is now looking to $24.50 for support being an area that provided several tops back in January and February. Arabica coffee trades up 19% this month on Brazil weather concerns and momentum buying Global coffee prices continue to get more expensive with Arabica coffee, the high-quality bean primarily produced in South America, trading up 19.6% this month to $2.0525/lb, a seven-month high, after the pace of buying accelerated last week when the price broke above the 200-DMA, now support at $1.90/lb. Robusta coffee, primarily produced in Asia, has enjoyed the tailwind to trade up 10% this month so far. The market is worried about weather developments in Brazil with heavy rainfall in some areas and low temperatures in others raising some concerns. In addition, the May contract (KCK3) has been exposed to short covering ahead of the futures first notice day tomorrow. Treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas): curve flattens in muted trading The lack of negative surprises from banks’ Q1 results so far (although note the number of regional banks reporting below) and the rejection of recession risks in 2023 from St Louis Fed president Bullard weighed on the front end, seeing the 2-year yield rising 3bps to 4.20%. Yields from the 5-year to 30-year edged down 2bps, with the 10-year yield finishing the muted session at 3.58%. The 2-10-year curved flattened to -62. As yields were being range-bound lately, traders were seen shorting volatility in rates by selling strangles. What is going on? ASML sees mixed demand signals The world’s largest manufacturer of advanced semiconductor equipment is reporting Q1 results this morning with Q1 gross margin at 50.6% vs est. 49.8% and revenue of €6.75bn vs est. €6.3bn. The Q2 revenue guidance of €6.5-7bn is also exceeding estimates of €6.4bn suggesting the demand picture looks strong although ASML says in its statement that they see mixed signals on demand. ASML indicates +25% revenue growth in 2023 and that demand will exceed production capacity this year. China is roughly 8% of system sales and 20% of backlog with the CFO saying that the company is still awaiting the Dutch government’s final decision on China chip curbs. Netflix recovers from initially bad read of Q1 earnings Netflix reported last night after the US market close Q1 revenue of $8.2bn in line with estimates and Q1 paid memberships of 232.5mn in line with estimates. The streaming giant also raised its FY23 free cash flow guidance to at least $3.5b from previously at least $3bn as a function of Netflix reducing its spending on original content. Investors were initially spooked sending the shares down 12% because of its Q2 revenue guidance of $8.2bn vs est. $8.5bn, but comments on the conference call about plans to roll out paid sharing models which will increase monetization eased investor concerns. Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui bank sold $1 billion in AT1 notes This was the first issuance of AT1 debt since Credit Suisse’s AT1 debt was wiped out in its sale to UBS last month and was one of the large corporate bond deals in Japan this year. The bank plans to issue further AT1 debt in May. The bonds sold at a 171 basis point spread to JGB’s. Fed Speak: hawkish, but from non-voters Fed’s most hawkish member Bullard was on the wires overnight, still vouching for terminal rate at 5.50-5.75% against current market pricing of 5.1%. He also stated that US recession predictions ignore the strength of the labour market and pandemic savings still to be used, and the risk of bank stress causing broad problems seems to have diminished. Raphael Bostic also reiterated that he expects one more rate hike, noting the economy still has lots of momentum and inflation is too high and it will take a while to move back to target. On the banking stress, he said that more caution in bank lending will allow the Fed to hike rates less. UK data: uncomfortably high March CPI a challenge for BoE complacency The UK March CPI this morning came in at +0.8% MoM and 10.1% YoY vs. 0.5%/9.8% expected and the core was steady at 6.2% YoY versus expectations of a fall to 6.0%. These hot data points are a challenge to the Bank of England’s aggressively disinflationary CPI forecasts. The Retail Price Index only fell slightly to 13.5% vs. 13.3% expected and 13.8% in Feb. What are we watching next? Blitz of regional US banks reporting earnings next two days Regional US banks are not normally in focus in any given earnings season, but they are suddenly in the spotlight for this earnings cycle since the sudden March collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and ensuing signs that some depositors are moving their funds to larger banks, or even into US treasuries or money market funds, given the unprecedented pace of declines in US commercial bank deposits in the weeks since the Silicon Valley Bank collapse kicked off the recent bank turmoil. Some of the larger US regional banks reporting this week include US Bancorp (US’ fifth largest bank), Zions Bancorp, Western Alliance Bancorp, and Citizens Financial Group Inc. Report today.  Tomorrow Bank OZK, Comerica, Fifth Third, KeyCorp and Truist report, with at least eight additional smaller banks in the KBW Regional Bank Index reporting as well. One regional bank reporting Q1 earnings yesterday, Hancock Whitney ($35B total assets), saw an 11% drop in total deposits and a doubling of its short term borrowing. Earnings to watch Today’s key US earnings to watch are Tesla (aft-mkt) and US Bancorp (bef-mkt) with investors focusing on the gross margin developments of Tesla which has aggressively cut prices across its models in Q1 as lithium carbonate prices have declined more than 60% since the peak in November. Tesla’s expectations for orders and growth will also be closely watched by investors. Analysts expect Tesla to report 25% revenue growth y/y in Q1 and then Q2 revenue growth estimates are currently at 47% y/y. US Bancorp has not seen the same impact on deposits as other US banks so given the figures we have seen from US bank we expect a strong report from US Bancorp. Wednesday: Metro, ASML, Heineken, Tesla, Abbott Laboratories, Morgan Stanley, IBM, Lam Research, US Bancorp Thursday: CATL, Tryg, Nokia, Sartorius, Volvo, Philip Morris, AT&T, Union Pacific, American Express, Blackstone, CSX, DR Horton Friday: Jinko Solar, SAP, Sandvik, Investor, Procter & Gamble, Schlumberger, Freeport-McMoRan For an extended overview of all earnings releases check out the earnings calendar in our trading platform. Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Eurozone Mar. Final CPI*1035 – ECB Chief Economic Lane to speak1215 – Canada Mar. Housing Starts1430 – US DoE Weekly Crude Oil and Product Inventories1600 – ECB's Schnabel to speak1700 – US Treasury to sell 20-year T-bonds1800 – US Fed Beige Book2130 – UK Bank of England’s Catherine Mann to speak2130 – US Fed’s Goolsbee (Voter 2023) to speak2245 – New Zealand Q1 CPI Source: Global Market Quick Take: Europe – April 19, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Earnings season: Tesla stock price slipped after yesterday's news. The best selling car in Q1 was Model Y

Earnings season: Tesla stock price slipped after yesterday's news. The best selling car in Q1 was Model Y

Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 20.04.2023 12:46
Earlier this year the Tesla share price hit its lowest level since August 2020, as a combination of concerns over rising costs, increased competition, and the focus of its CEO Elon Musk on the business saw the shares plunge from peaks of $400 at the start of 2022 to as low as $102 at the start of this year. We've seen a modest recovery since then to just shy of the 200-day SMA which has acted as a barrier to further gains for the moment. There is no question that Tesla continues to deliver record numbers of new vehicles and looks set to continue to deliver ever higher numbers on a quarterly basis, with the number of Tesla locations rising by 27% to 1,000, but there has been a concern in recent days that its ability to maintain its margins will hamper its ability to drive its future profits growth. Tesla stock price decreased yesterday Yesterday the shares finished the day lower after the electric car company announced a further set of price cuts, the sixth such announcement this year. Last night's Q1 announcement saw the shares slip back further in after-hours trading as modest misses on revenues and profits, along with a sharp decline in total gross margins weighed on sentiment, making the prospect of a revisit of the March lows at $164 a possibility. Even though Tesla once again delivered a record quarter for deliveries in Q1, with 422,875, this was only a modest increase on the 405,278 delivered in Q4. Read next: Eightcap analyst after UK CPI: It is an interesting position now for the Bank of England., do they need to go back to a few 50-point hikes to cut into the CPI rate?| FXMAG.COM Last night's Q1 numbers saw that margin number fall further to 19.3%, below expectations of 21.2%, even as profits came in at $0.85c a share, and revenues came in at $23.33bn, a rise of 24% year on year, although down on Q4's $24.3bn. The fall to 19.3% in gross margins is a 977bp decline from the same quarter a year ago and could well get worse after Tesla said prices could get changed further in the coming months. Tesla blamed the reduction in margins on a number of items, including higher raw material, commodity, logistical and warranty costs. Tesla also mentioned the cost of ramping up production of 4680 cells. Free cash flow also fell sharply, falling to $441m a decline of 80% from the same quarter last year. At the time of the Q4 numbers CEO Elon Musk expressed confidence that, while the aim for Tesla was to make 1.8m vehicles this year, a figure of 2m was possible. This doesn't look particularly likely if the numbers delivered in Q1 is any guide, which might explain why Tesla is starting to cut prices so aggressively so that it can keep its production levels up.  Since the end of last year Tesla has announced a range of swingeing price cuts across all of its regions, and has continued to do so in recent days, which suggests that the company is now more concerned about demand than they are about margins. This appears to be being reflected in inventory levels which rose to 15% in Q1 and up from 13% in Q4. Tesla sold over 400K Model Ys The best-selling car in Q1 has been the Model Y which saw 412,180 sold, while the Model S and X saw 10,695 sales, a fall of nearly 35% from a year ago.  On the plus side, the Cybertruck is on course to start production this year. Tesla kept its full-year production target of 1.8m vehicles unchanged.
US electric vehicle market set for sustained growth despite stricter subsidy rules

Is automotive branch getting better after months of supply chain issues and chips shortage? HFM Analyst talks Toyota, Volkswagen and BMW earnings

Marco Turatti Marco Turatti 12.05.2023 12:24
For many months now it's been terribly hard for anybody to order a car you really want with every selected features. Supply chain issues and chips shortage made it a big challendge for automotive branch to produce cars effectively and sell them for a reasonable price. That's why we ask HF Markets analyst, Marco Turatti about the industry state and earnings of Toyota, VW and BMW. FXMAG.COM: Is automotive branch getting better after months of supply chain issues and chips shortage? Please comment on Toyota, VW and BMW earnings. Marco Turatti (HF Markets): In 2023, a fairly strong global automotive market is expected, with global production growth of 3% thanks to a more stable supply chain (as well as more stable raw material prices). That is according to JPMorgan, at least. The supply side of semiconductors started to improve in 2022 thanks to an increase in productive capacity at the same time that a decline in sales in the consumer electronics sector allowed resources to be shifted towards the automotive market (as happened in Taiwan), which is in full swing due to the transition to electric. However, the fact that cars are using increasingly powerful and specific chips could give rise to new bottlenecks towards the end of the year that are expected to be fairly minor. Read next: Even though JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, reported solid earnings, their reports showed weakness in deposits and declines in net interest income| FXMAG.COM Marco Turatti (HF Markets): The renewed availability of productive factors will unleash competition worldwide but especially on the Chinese market, the largest in the world (and where 'small' local producers are eating up market shares); at the same time it is expected that demand may slacken mainly in Europe (according to BMW). Toyota plans to multiply its production of purely electric vehicles (non-hybrid) by 5 to 202,000 units before March 2024 Marco Turatti (HF Markets): Looking at TOYOTA, which was the last to present results on 10/05, it plans to multiply its production of purely electric vehicles (non-hybrid) by 5 to 202,000 units before March 2024. VOLKSWAGEN will try to recover the lost market share in the Asian giant (sales -14%, offset by good data in the EU and the US), focusing however on maintaining positive margins as close as possible to 8% as they are for the traditional combustion engine segment: therefore, the focus will not be on volumes or price reductions. This low margin stress situation was more pronounced for European producers, where supply chain problems were felt more than in other areas in 2022: for example, BMW also adopted a pricing strategy opposite to Tesla's, raising prices on average. Revenues increased by 28% ($142.6B) while earnings registered +12%, less than what analysts expected. Marco Turatti (HF Markets): In any case, everything points to a healthy 2023 for the automotive market and a competition that is once again more intense due to the full availability of productive factors.
Past bubbles and AI. "It turns out that almost every time historically there has been a technology that has revolutionised reality, it has been over-invested in"

Earnings season is not over yet! Next week Vodafone, Siemens and Tencent report their earnings!

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 12.05.2023 14:51
Summary:  Equity markets are steady after the US posted softer producer inflation than expected and the highest weekly jobless claims in over eighteen months yesterday. Treasuries yields dropped on the data and once more supported the megacap-heavy Nasdaq 100 index, while the broader market was mixed at best. The US dollar rallied across the board, particularly against sterling, which sold off broadly after a whipsaw-reaction to the guidance from the Bank of England meeting. Copper plunged through key support, suggesting concerns for the global growth outlook. What is our trading focus? US equities (US500.I and USNAS100.I): compressed trading ranges Negative jitter around the US debt ceiling negotiation and initial jobless claims weakened further providing a bit of weight to the forward curve in SOFR futures pricing rate cuts later this year, but the equity market remained relaxed with S&P 500 futures staying in the recent tight trading range. The VIX Index remains below 17 suggesting little implied short-term risks in the market. In Nasdaq 100 futures there were a bit more positive vibes yesterday due to the market liking yesterday’s AI announcements by Google. Today’s key macro event for the equity market is May preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment. Chinese equities (HK50.I & 02846:xhkg): head for weekly losses The Hang Seng Index and the CSI300 Index extended the decline, edging down 0.1% and 0.6% respectively by mid-day, both heading for over 1% losses for the week. In China, the amount of new RMB loans slumped to 719 billion in April from RMB3,890 billion in March. Loans to corporates collapsed by 75% and loans to households turned negative, stirring up investors’ worries further about the loss of momentum in the Chinese economy. The Hang Seng TECH Index, however, was lifted by rallies in e-commerce platforms following JD.COM (09618:xhkg) reported a better-than-feared 1% Y/Y revenue growth in Q1, a 33% EPS beat, and upbeat guidance for Q2. JD.COM surged 7% and peer e-commerce names gained between 2-4%. E-commerce A-shares stocks also advanced in mainland bourses. A-share textiles and traditional Chinese medicine names also bucked the decline. FX: Safe haven flows drive the USD higher Despite cooler economic data in the US knocking treasury yields back lower and refuelling of banking sector concerns, the US dollar rallied on Thursday across the G10 board. GBPUSD tried a weak rally immediately after the Bank of England’s rate hike but resumed its slide from recent highs subsequently to test 1.25 as the hawkish message was later discounted and yields actually fell at the front end of the UK gilt curve. EURUSD also dropped to test 1.09. AUDUSD and NZDUSD had more to give after recent gains, and were down toward key levels of 0.6700 and 0.6250 respectively. USDJPY bounced from lows well below 134.00 yesterday after a broad JPY surge, trading above 134.50 this morning in Europe. Crude oil: demand concerns still weighing Weak demand concerns continue to pile up for the crude oil market, with US economic data on cooling inflation and labor market conditions further igniting slowdown concerns and China’s inflation and credit data also pouring water on the China demand surge hopes. WTI prices dipped below $71/barrel while Brent was below $75. There were however some reports that underpinned oil prices later. US energy secretary, Jennifer Granholm, said the government aims to purchase oil to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve after a congressionally mandated drawdown ends in June. OPEC increased its outlook for China’s 2023 oil demand, thereby supporting expectations for a rise in global demand of 2.33mb/d, a prediction that contradicts the current downward trend in oil prices Copper and silver, two major casualties during Thursday’s risk off session Copper fell to its lowest level in seven months on rising concerns over the health of China’s economy. Copper futures broke below key support of $3.80/lb for the first time in four months, thereby supporting fresh selling by momentum-based funds and hedge funds already short. The next key level of support at $3.6680/lb, the 61.8% retracement of the October to January rally is now being tested. While short-term pressure is apparent, copper remains the king of green metals and lack of a resilient supply means prices will remain underpinned in the medium/long term. The copper weakness triggered a 5% sell off in silver, the biggest one-day loss since February 2, 2021, with selling accelerating after breaking support at $24.50. Having shown resilience following the 31% March to April rally, correction risks have been rising with focus now on support at $23.72, the 38.2% retracement of the mentioned rally. Gold, the next shoe to drop? The general market weakness on Thursday, especially across the metal sector, saw profit taking drive the gold price back towards a key area of support. Recently established longs after the softer CPI print lifted expectations for a Fed pause got caught offside and with silver tumbling 5% support evaporated. However, mounting fears of the US debt ceiling, de-dollarization flows, geopolitical tensions, expectations for rate cuts later this year remain key reasons why the yellow metal is currently holding up very well. The gold-silver ratio has jumped to near 84 and highest since March 29. Strong fundamentals aside, the short-term direction will be determined by flows and hedge funds are currently holding an elevated long, that could get squeezed. Support at $2007 followed the $1991 ahead of the big one at $1950 while resistance remains firm above $2050. US Treasury yields (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) lower on US data The soft PPI headline data and spike in jobless claims (more below) saw US treasury yields pushing lower, though curiously a bit more at the long end than at the short end as the rally in 2-year treasuries reversed in late trading and the 2-year benchmark only closed a couple of basis points lower, while the 10-year Treasury yields closed some 6 basis points lower. The bottom of the range since the US bank turmoil began in March is now a bit closer in the 10-year benchmark – at 3.25% versus the 3.39% level this morning. What is going on? The slow cooling of the US economy – PPI softens, jobless claims rise US producer prices in April rose 0.2% M/M, less than the expected 0.3% rise, while the prior month was revised to a 0.4% decline from an initial 0.5% decline. The Y/Y figure fell to 2.3% from 2.7%, coming in softer than the 2.4% expected. Core PPI rose 0.2% M/M, as expected and reversing last month's 0.1% decline, with core services rising to 0.4% from 0.2% while core goods were more contained at 0.2%. Core PPI rose 3.2% Y/Y, beneath the expected 3.3% rise and down from the prior 3.4%. Meanwhile, weekly US initial jobless claims printed at 264k vs. 245k expected and 4-week average (as of last week) of 239k. It is the highest reading since October of 2021, and supports market expectations for eventual Fed cuts, though several more weeks of worsening claims data will be necessary to support the scale of cuts priced into the forward curve. Markets continue to price in about 100bps of rate cuts from the Fed through the January 2024 meeting. Richemont fiscal year results beat estimates The Swiss-based luxury goods maker reports this morning better than expected fiscal year revenue and operating profit of €5.03bn vs est. €4.82bn. The company is announcing a special dividend of CHF 1 per share. The company is also saying that its Chinese group travel business has not rebounded, inflation will be stickier than what people think, and finally that US demand has been in a slowdown since November. Alphabet shares rise 4% on AI announcements Google, the search engine business of Alphabet, reported yesterday several key updates on their AI efforts and technology including announcing a foldable smart phone to rival that of Samsung. The market came away impressed by the AI announcements sending Alphabet shares higher by 4%. JD.com rallies 7% on positive Q2 comments JD.com, one of China’s largest e-commerce retailers, reported better than expected Q1 revenue and earnings and said that Q2 gross merchandise volume growth is higher than in Q1 bolstering the hope for a growth rebound. Another round of regional bank fears Regional bank fears re-ignited on Thursday after PacWest Bancorp announced it saw deposit losses in early May of roughly 9.5% after noting it is exploring all strategic options. Western Alliance also sold off on the news pre-market, but recovered later after it announced total deposits are up $600mn since May 2 to ~$49.4bn as of Tuesday May 9. Banking sector confidence remains fragile and prone to further deterioration if deposit concerns continue. The KRX regional bank index fell more than 2% to its lowest daily close of the cycle. Elsewhere, FDIC proposed a special fee on larger banks to recoup losses incurred by SVB and Signature Bank failures. The fee would be based on the amount of uninsured deposits at each bank, and would set an annual special assessment rate of 12.5bps on a bank's uninsured deposits as of December 2022. Debt ceiling meeting postponed The White House said it has postponed a meeting on debt ceiling negotiations between Biden and GOP leaders that was scheduled for Friday to allow staff-level talks to continue. After Tuesday’s meeting brought no progress in talks, another postponement could bring additional bond volatility. While the White House reportedly viewed the delay as a positive development, adding that staff meetings were going well and it was not yet time for the principal leaders to come back together, Republicans disagreed, and Kevin McCarthy said that he does not think there is enough progress for leaders to get back together. Concerns are also starting to rise about the Treasury’s cash balance which is down by half since the start of the month, standing now at $155bn, and on pace to hit Janet Yellen’s critical date of June 1, although if the Treasury can piece together enough financing until mid-June, fresh tax revenues may delay the crunch time until July or August. What are we watching next? Election in Turkey on Sunday A smaller opposition candidate to President Erdogan who was polling at a few percentage points bowed out of the race yesterday in an election this Sunday that is chiefly a two-way affair between Erdogan and the main opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who has called the election a referendum on democracy and accused “Russian friends” of interfering in this Sunday’s election with deep fake videos and other content. Kilicdaroglu has slightly led Erdogan in the polls, but after a widening of the gap in the wake of the devastating earthquake in February, the gap has closed to only a few points. Yesterday, Erdogan announced a large hike in the minimum wage for civil servants set for July after announcing a previous 45% wage hike just two days prior. Read next: Saxo Bank Articles And Videos On FXMAG.COM G7 meeting needs to be on our radar The G7 nations are set to meet next Friday and into the weekend in Niigata, Japan, with considerable anticipation that the meeting could produce major geopolitical signals related to the nature of the nations’ relationship with China. This morning, Bloomberg reports that G7 finance heads will propose a new partnership on supply chains that will only allow participation if certain minimum standards are met on human rights and environmental policies. Today’s Technical Highlights: S&P 500 range bound 4,050-4,195 DAX range bound. Key support at 15.700 for a correction Gold key support at 1,980 and 1,950 Silver below key support at 24.64. Support at 23.72. Could spike down to 23.00 Copper closed below support at 372. Downside risk to 360-356 Brent Oil rejected at 0.382 could test previous lows at 71.28 WTI lower after rejected at 0.50 retracement. Could test previous lows at 64.12 EURUSD testing key support 1.0900. If closing below correction down to 1.0744 Dollar Index could bounce to 102.50-103 EURJPY Shoulder-Head-Shoulder reversal unfolding. Could drop to 144.80. GBPUSD testing rising trendline. A break likely leading to support at 1.2344 US 10-year Treasury yields close to be testing key support at 3,30-3,25 Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings calendar is non-existent, so the focus will be on the European earnings releases with Richemont being the most interesting because of the strong rally in luxury stocks this year. Next week’s earnings releases have been added with our focus next week being on Siemens Energy, Home Depot, Siemens, Tencent, Walmart, and Deere. Friday: Societe Generale, Allianz, Richemont Next week’s earnings releases: Monday: Constellation Software, Siemens Energy, Meituan, Bridgestone, NU Holdings, Trip.com Tuesday: KBC Group, Vodafone, Nibe Industrier, Sonova, Home Depot, Baidu Wednesday: Siemens, Munich Re, Commerzbank, Tencent, Experian, Cisco, TJX, Target, Sea Ltd Thursday: KE Holdings, National Grid, Walmart, Alibaba, Applied Materials Friday: Deere Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 1115 – Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill to speak 1400 – US Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment 1600 – USDA's World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE) Source: Global Market Quick Take: Europe – May 12, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
EXMO.COM analyst: Currently, Tesla is still trying to conquer the market by prioritising revenue over profit

Toyota’s (TM) Q1 profit edged up 3% from the previous year on robust sales. Are automotive companies’ share prices currently undervalued?

David Kindley David Kindley 12.05.2023 12:25
We continue to share analysts thoughts on automotive industry. Earlier today we published a comment of Marco Turatti. This time it's over to Orbex's David Kindley. David Kindley (Orbex): In 2022, automakers worldwide were hit by a shortage of computer chips and other auto parts due to the global supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic. In 2023, with supply chain bottlenecks finally easing, the world's biggest car makers have reported very strong Q1 earnings despite being faced with slowing global demand, persistent inflation, and higher raw-material costs. Toyota Q1 earnings David Kindley (Orbex): Specifically, Toyota’s (TM) Q1 profit edged up 3% from the previous year on robust sales. The automaker posted a sharp increase in sales for its first annual report offered under new Toyota CEO Koji Sato with $4 billion in quarterly net profit, up from $3.9 billion in the previous quarter. Quarterly sales also soared nearly 20% to $72 billion. The strong earnings came despite Toyota stating that soaring raw material costs also affected its bottom line. Read next: It should be noted that BoJ’s decade-long ultra-loose stimulus program has drawn intense criticism for broadening price pressures in the world's third-largest economy | FXMAG.COM Volkswagen Group in the first quarter of 2023 David Kindley (Orbex): Meanwhile, Volkswagen Group posted a solid start to the 2023 fiscal year, with operating profit before valuation effects from commodity hedging, increasing by 35% to $7.8 billion. VW’s first-quarter sales revenue also rose by 22% to a total of $83 billion, driven by a recovery in sales volumes in Europe and North America. BMW AG Q1 earnings beat expectations David Kindley (Orbex): In the case of BMW AG, the company’s first-quarter earnings also beat expectations, even though the company left its 2023 outlook unchanged due to softening global demand. Specifically, the carmaker reported an automotive earnings margin of 12.1% and pledged to boost earnings per share with a new $2.2 billion share buyback program. David Kindley (Orbex): It’s important to note that as most automotive companies’ share prices are currently undervalued, they could present solid long-term “buy and hold” opportunities for traders and investors.
easyJet earnings are published this week - the company expects H1 losses to be less than expected

easyJet earnings are published this week - the company expects H1 losses to be less than expected

Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 15.05.2023 13:15
  US Retail Sales (Apr) – 16/05 – US retail sales growth has been reasonably resilient so far year to date, starting strongly in January at 2.4%, before slowing to 0% in February, while March was revised up from -0.8% to -0.4%. Inflation has continued to fall back against a backdrop of a resilient labour market, while recent earnings numbers have been broadly positive which augurs well for this week's numbers from Walmart and Target. The recent turmoil in the US banking sector does appear to be giving consumers some pause when it comes to their spending patterns, with the weakness in March, which could spill over into this week's April retail sales numbers, especially given that one year inflation expectations jumped sharply higher during the month to a 6-month high of 4.6%. Consensus is for a 0.4% gain.    EU Q1 GDP – 16/05 – the recent Q1 GDP numbers from Spain, Italy, Germany and France showed an EU economy that was slightly more resilient than was expected... ...at the end of last year, largely due to the milder winter which kept energy costs down. Nonetheless the recent EU flash Q1 GDP numbers were a little surprising as they came in weaker than expected at 0.1%, at the end of last month, while Q4 was revised lower to a -0.1% contraction. This week's final Q1 numbers aren't expected to provide any surprises but given the weakness in manufacturing there is a concern that any recovery in Q2 might be snuffed out by the ECB's continued tightening measures.             easyJet H1 23 – 18/05 – airlines have seen some steady gains so far this year with the easyJet share price hitting its highest level since June last year in mid-April when the airline reported its Q2 results. The airline said it expects H1 losses to be less than expected, about £400m, while saying it expects to exceed full year expectations of profits of £260m. A 35% rise in passengers in Q2, and a 43% rise in revenue per seat was followed by a reiteration of its H2 guidance of 56m seats, a rise of 9%. An upgrade to easyJet holidays guidance to 60% growth year on year was also welcome. Group revenue is expected to come in at £2.69bn, while costs are expected to be around £3.1bn, due to higher fuel prices. The load factor in Q2 was 88% with an expectation that this moves into the mid 90% during H2. Read next: Bank of England raised the interest rate, UK unemployment data go out tomorrow| FXMAG.COM
BT Group full year earnings expected to hit £20.53bn. Would Burberry earnings go hand in hand with LVMH and Hermes counterparts?

BT Group full year earnings expected to hit £20.53bn. Would Burberry earnings go hand in hand with LVMH and Hermes counterparts?

Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 15.05.2023 13:33
  BT Group FY 23 – 18/05 – BT Group shares have seen some decent gains since hitting two-year lows back in December. The art of meeting expectations appears to have been behind this outperformance with the shares up over 25% year to date. In Q3 BT reported numbers that were in line with expectations. Adjusted revenue came in slightly below expectations at £5.21bn, a decline of 2.9%, although adjusted EBITDA increased in line with expectations to £2.01bn. On a 9-month basis profits after tax came in at £1.32bn, on revenues of £15.59bn, with adjusted EBITDA rising 3% to £5.88bn. BT reaffirmed its full year guidance. Full year revenues are expected to come in at £20.53bn, with full year adjusted EBITDA of £7.87bn.   Burberry FY 23 – 18/05 – the last few weeks have seen a raft of luxury retailers report some strong Q1 numbers, with the likes of... ...LVMH, Kering, and Hermes all reporting strong rebounds in Q1 sales due to strong rebounds in their Asia markets, as the economies of China and Japan report strong post Covid recovery sales. Burberry shares hit record highs back in April on the back of optimism over the China recovery as we look ahead to this week's full year numbers which are expected to show that full year revenues came in at £3.1bn. In the first 3 quarters of this current year China sales have proved to be a drag with a decline of 23% in Q3 and 19% in Q2. This weakness didn't stop H1 sales rising by 5% with same store sales rising by 1% in Q3. This week's Q4 and full year numbers should see China and Asia come back with a vengeance, with Q4 revenues of £812m.   Read next: easyJet earnings are published this week - the company expects H1 losses to be less than expected| FXMAG.COM Home Depot Q1 24 – 16/05 – saw a sharp fall in the share price back in February after posting some disappointing Q4 numbers, before finding a short-term base around the end of March. With the US housing market in the doldrums, you might expect more money to get spent on home improvements, although spending does tend to be limited during the winter months. Comparable store sales fell by -0.3% in Q4, against an expectation of a 0.3% gain. Other than that, the numbers weren't that bad, with net sales coming in at $35.83bn, while profits beat expectations, coming in at $3.30c a share. The outlook, however, was disappointing with Home Depot forecasting flat sales growth for 2023, while operating margins are set to come in below 14.5% due to higher wage costs. Q1 revenues are expected to come in at $38.6bn and profits of $3.85c a share.
Nasdaq 100 posted a new one year high. S&P 500 ended the day unchanged

This week's earnings schedule - Q1 revenues of Walmart and Target

Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 15.05.2023 13:42
  Walmart Q1 24 – 18/05 – when Walmart reported its Q4 numbers back in February, the shares fell sharply in the days after, before rebounding off 5-month lows and the 200-day SMA on the 10th March. The reaction was surprising given that the retailer saw a record quarter, with revenues coming in at $164.05bn, although the weaker outlook may have had a part to play in that. US comparable sales rose by over 8%, while profits came in at $1.71c a share, building on the solid numbers seen in Q3. On the outlook, Walmart said it expected to see Q1 sales growth of 5%, and profits of between $1.25c to $1.30c a share, with the full year pictureR appearing to be more challenging. Consensus forecast appears to align with this, with revenues expected to come in at $148.36bn, and profits of $1.30c a share. Since those 5-month lows in March Walmart shares have risen sharply, rising to 11-month highs in April. Annual EPS profits are expected to be lower than last year's $6.29c a share, at between $5.90 to $6.05c a share.   Target Q1 24 – 17/05 – Target shares have struggled since hitting 6-month highs at the start of February and have been languishing since reporting a sharp fall in Q4 profits back in February. These numbers in Q4 came against a backdrop of a cut to its guidance in Q3, and while sales in Q4 increased by 1.2% to $30.98bn pushing annual sales up by 2.8% to $107.59bn. Q4 profits fell by 41% to $1.89c a share, or $876m, but were still better than forecast. Annual profits came in at $2.78bn or 5.98c a share, a decline of 57.6%. Higher costs have been the main problem for Target as a business, these rose by 9.7% to $82.2bn over the year. This appears to be a turned that might continue with Target's Q1 guidance particularly underwhelming. Sales are expected to come in a wider range, either side of zero, from a low single digit decline to a low single digit increase, with profits expected to come in between $1.50c to $1.90c. For the full year Target is expecting a similar sales performance as Q1. Consensus forecast for same-store sales is for a rise of 1.3% on revenues of $25.2bn, and profits of $1.79c a share. Read next: BT Group full year earnings expected to hit £20.53bn. Would Burberry earnings go hand in hand with LVMH and Hermes counterparts?| FXMAG.COM    
EXMO.COM analyst: Currently, Tesla is still trying to conquer the market by prioritising revenue over profit

EXMO.COM analyst: Currently, Tesla is still trying to conquer the market by prioritising revenue over profit

Serhii Zhdanov Serhii Zhdanov 19.05.2023 11:44
FXMAG.COM: Could you please share your thoughts on Tesla earnings after they're released? After the release of the financial report, TSLA shares dropped by about 10% Serhii Zhdanov (EXMO.COM): After the release of the financial report, TSLA shares dropped by about 10%. A decrease in margins was caused by the desperate price battle launched by the company in an effort to maintain high sales rates. Tesla has repeatedly reduced the prices of its cars in the USA, China, and Germany. Currently, Tesla is still trying to conquer the market by prioritising revenue over profit. As a result, TSLA's revenue rose 24% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2023. However, its profit shrank, causing the EBITDA margin and the operating margin to drop from nearly 27% to 18.3% and to 11%. Elon Musk emphasised that the company strives to continue the maximum possible production of cars and noted that Tesla still remains one of the most profitable companies in the industry. The company expects a gradual decrease in the cost of cars, while also planning to increase production efficiency at new factories and reduce logistics costs. The company expects a gradual decrease in the cost of cars, while also planning to increase production efficiency at new factories and reduce logistics costs Serhii Zhdanov (EXMO.COM): Tesla remains focused on operating leverage as it scales its business. Musk expressed confidence that Tesla will achieve full autonomy in 2023 if things go according to plan. However, Tesla's CEO is known for his long-term unfulfilled pledges. Tesla has claimed that it is looking for 50% year-over-year long-term growth and will deliver 1.8 million vehicles in 2023. Musk also added that the automaker might do better than that and produce two million vehicles. Read next: Inflation has slowed down, but it will take about two years before it returns to the target range of 3%. RBA expects inflation to decline to 4.5% by the end of 2023 | FXMAG.COM

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