demand for euro

For short positions on EUR/USD: Sellers capitulated, and today their hopes are dwindling. The divergent policies of the Fed and the ECB, as well as aggressive statements from European officials regarding further inflation fighting measures, maintain demand for the euro, which is used by the big players. The only thing the bears do is to protect the new resistance level at 1.0997. I will go short on this mark after a rise and a false breakout. It may give a sell signal, pushing EUR/USD to a major support level at 1.0956, formed yesterday.   A decline below this level as well as an upward retest could trigger a downward movement to 1.0911. A more distant target will be the 1.0862 level where I recommend locking in profits. If EUR/USD rises during the European session and bears fail to protect 1.0997, the bullish trend will continue. In this case, I would advise you to postpone short positions until a false breakout of the resistance level of 1.1029. You could sell EUR/USD at a bounce from 1.1029, keeping in mind a downward intraday correction of 30-35 pips.   COT report: According to the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for June 13, there was a drop in long and short positions. However, this report was released even before the Federal Reserve's decision on the interest rate. The regulator decided to skip a rate hike in June this year, which significantly affected market sentiment. For this reason, one should not pay too much attention to the report. Demand for the euro remains high as the ECB remains committed to aggressive tightening. The euro is likely to maintain a bullish bias. The best medium-term strategy is to go long on the decline. The COT report showed that long non-commercial positions decreased by 9,922 to 226,138, while short non-commercial positions fell by 3,323 to 74,316. At the end of the week, the total non-commercial net position dropped and amounted to 151 822 against 158 224. The weekly closing price increased and amounted to 1.0794 against 1.0702.  

The test of 1.0975 on Tuesday afternoon, coinciding with the time when the MACD line was in the overbought area, prompted a sell signal that resulted in a price decrease of around 30 pips. Lending data in the eurozone and speeches from ECB members may maintain demand for euro and continue its upward trend.   Good indicators on M3 money supply aggregate and private sector lending volume in the eurozone may also lead to a new surge in prices. Similarly, hawkish remarks by ECB President Christine Lagarde, pointing out potential further aggressive actions on the central bank's balance sheet, will also strengthen demand for euro.   For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0958 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0995. An upward movement will continue if lending in the eurozone remains at a normal level, allowing the ECB to raise rates without problems. However, when buying, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0935, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0958 and 1.0995.   For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0935 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0903. Pressure will return in case of poor statistics from the eurozone. However, when selling, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0958, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0935 and 1.0903.     What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market     Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.    

No price test occurred in EUR/USD this morning due to low volatility and empty macroeconomic calendar. But ahead lies the latest consumer price index in the US, which will likely force many market players to review their positions on risky assets. Demand for euro may drop, which could lead to a decline in the pair.   There will be an increase only when inflation drops more than expected. Markets will also pay attention to the speeches of FOMC members Neel Kashkari and Raphael Bostic. For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.1036 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1075. Growth will occur amid weak US inflation.   However, when buying, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.1017, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1036 and 1.1075. For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.1017 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0981. Pressure will increase in the case of another jump in US inflation. However, when selling, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.1036, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1017 and 1.0981.       What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market       Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.  

The test of 1.2942, coinciding with the decline of the MACD line from zero, prompted a sell signal that led to a price decrease of around 20 pips. The latest CPI data in the US lies ahead, and this will likely cause market players to review their positions on risky assets. Demand for pound may drop, which could lead to a decline in GBP/USD. There will be an increase only when inflation drops more than expected. Markets will also pay attention to the speeches of FOMC members Neel Kashkari and Raphael Bostic.   For long positions: Buy when pound hits 1.2946 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.3014 (thicker green line on the chart). Further growth will be seen in the case of weak US inflation data. However, when buying, make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Pound can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.2895, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2946 and 1.3014.     For short positions: Sell when pound reaches 1.2895 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2844. Pressure will increase in the event of further growth in US inflation. However, when selling, make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Pound can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.2946, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2895 and 1.2844.         What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy GBP/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell GBP/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market     Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.