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Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/3/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/3/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 23.03.2022 19:52
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index fell by 5,664 contracts last week. This change is the result of a decrease in long positions by 6,264 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 600 contracts. The decline in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen. The increase in total net positions occurred in the New Zealand dollar, the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc. The significant growth in positions of large speculators in the commodity currencies AUD, NZD and CAD can be explained by the rising prices of commodities exported by these countries. A large number of options and futures contracts expired last week, which explains the large decline in open interest for each currency. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators Date USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 15, 2022 28380 18794 -29061 -44856 3653 -62340 17740 -5229 Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com The Euro date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 15, 2022 666010 202040 183246 18794 -72980 -40643 -593 -40050 Weak bullish Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Býčí         Total Change -19421 -11523 -601 -10922     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 18 794 contracts last week and they are down by 40 050 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 40,643 contracts and an increase in short positions by 593 contracts. These data suggest a weakening of the bullish sentiment in the euro. The open interest, which fell by 72,980 contracts in the last week, shows that the upward movement that occurred in the euro last week was not supported by a volume and it is therefore a weak price action. The euro continues to weaken under the influence of the war in Ukraine. Last week it returned to a resistance level which could be an opportunity to trade short in the event of a downtrend.  Long-term resistance: 1.1120 – 1.1150. Support: 1.080-1.0850. The next support is at 1.0640-1.0700.   The British pound date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 15, 2022 188323 32442 61503 -29061 -57989 -18540 -2005 -16535 Bearish Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish         Total Change 4316 2845 8301 -5456     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to -29,061 contracts and they are down by 16,535 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 18,540 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 2,005 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative while there is also their further decline. Open interest, which fell by 57,989 contracts last week, means that the rise in the pound price that occurred last week was not supported by volume and it is therefore a weak price action. Risk off sentiment due to the war in Ukraine continues to weigh on the pound and therefore the pound is weakening strongly. Although the Bank of England raised interest rates by 0.25% to 0.75% last week, it also warned of a decline in economic growth as a result of the war in Ukraine. The change in central bank rhetoric is a bearish signal for the pound. Long-term resistance: 1.3180-1.3210.  Next resistance is near 1.3270 – 1.3330. Support is near 1.3000.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 15, 2022 124521 24281 69137 -44856 -72573 4760 -28579 33339 Weak bearish Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish         Total Change -72392 5446 -29527 34973     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1     The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 44 856 contracts, having increased by 33 339 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 4,706 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 28,579 contracts. This data suggests a weakening of bearish sentiment in the Australian dollar. Last week we saw a decline in open interest of 72,573 contracts. This means that the upward move that occurred last week was not supported by a volume and it was therefore a weak move as new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar strengthened strongly again last week and reached a resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.7370-0.7440 Long-term support: 0.7160-0.7180.  A strong support is near 0.7080 – 0.7120.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 15, 2022 39200 21493 17840 3653 -14050 5718 -10314 16032 Bullish Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish         Total Change -19267 2288 -13063 15351     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 3,653 contracts last week and they are up by 16,032 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 5,718 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 10,314 contracts. This data suggests that there was bullish sentiment on the New Zealand dollar last week. Open interest fell significantly by 14,050 contracts last week. Therefore, the upward movement in the NZDUSD that occurred last week was not supported by volume and therefore the move was weak. The NZDUSD strengthened strongly last week and reached the resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.690 – 0.6930 Long-term support: 0.6730-0.6740 and the next support is at 0.6590 – 0.6600.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Your Crypto Focus: 26th March-1st April

Your Crypto Focus: 26th March-1st April

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 25.03.2022 09:47
This week, we’ve seen another mainly firmer week on the crypto boards, with the top 10 adding over 5% and the top 25 gaining over 5.5%. It wasn’t all smooth sailing as sellers tried to get things going lower early in the week before buyers returned and set the direction for the remainder of the week. Looking at the top 100, Qtum was one of the leaders this week, adding 45% and Looping had a fantastic week, climbing over 58% in the last seven days. ApeCoin failed to catch weekly buyer momentum, dropping over 18% during the week. One of the week’s stories to watch is reports Russia is looking at bitcoin as a payment form to settle energy transactions. Western sanctions continue to hit the Russian economy hard and effectively locked out of the USD FX market. The Kremlin is looking at other payment options, including Bitcoin. Putin has changed his tune on bitcoin. In 2021, the Russian leader told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble that while he believed bitcoin had value, he wasn’t convinced it could replace the U.S. dollar in settling oil trades. Now, the Kremlin’s top brass is weighing it as a form of payment for major exports. It’s unclear, however, whether bitcoin’s relative lack of liquidity could support international trade transactions of that magnitude. – CNBC This week we are focusing on a favorite that has, like many, seen a rough run over the last few months. Cardano started the year with two months of sharp declines that saw the price drop back to 0.7440. Since then, we’ve seen a fightback that’s produced two higher weekly bars, the first time since November 2021. This week’s price broke out of its long term downtrend, another firm sign that demand is back on track, which is what we want to see from here. If buyers can break 1.206 resistance, that would be another win, but we would like to see a new reaction in lower form. A new higher low that sets up a break and closes above that resistance point could send a firmer signal that this new run higher might actually turn into something more. The post Your Crypto Focus: 26th March-1st April appeared first on Eightcap.
Soft Commodities Speculators raise Corn bullish bets higher for 5th week, to 46-week high

Soft Commodities Speculators raise Corn bullish bets higher for 5th week, to 46-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 26.03.2022 23:30
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the continued gains in Corn futures bets. The speculative net position in the Corn futures has risen for five consecutive weeks with a total rise of +104,864 contracts over that five-week time-frame. These substantial gains have pushed the current net speculator standing to a total of +519,356 contracts and marks the most bullish level of the past forty-six weeks, dating back to May 4th of 2021. The Corn positioning is near the very top of its three-year range as Corn speculator positions hold an extreme bullish strength score at 96.4 percent this week. The speculator strength score is the current speculator standing compared to past three years where above 80 is bullish extreme and below 20 is bearish extreme. The soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Corn (12,150 contracts), Soybeans (1,037 contracts), Live Cattle (2,483 contracts) and Cotton (4,033 contracts). The soft commodities that saw declining bets this week were Sugar (-784 contracts), Coffee (-3,649 contracts), Soybean Oil (-5,359 contracts), Soybean Meal (-1,471 contracts), Cocoa (-1,487 contracts), Lean Hogs (-2,505 contracts) and Wheat (-1,440 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,788,211 0 339,969 3 -380,080 91 40,111 72 Gold 605,191 48 248,032 67 -281,595 32 33,563 59 Silver 155,456 21 47,947 70 -64,557 36 16,610 40 Copper 197,244 24 26,812 62 -34,604 36 7,792 70 Palladium 6,948 2 -1,208 15 238 78 970 100 Platinum 64,000 29 19,815 30 -27,047 70 7,232 63 Natural Gas 1,085,676 1 -149,337 34 107,446 65 41,891 85 Brent 191,138 32 -24,666 70 22,639 31 2,027 37 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 754,382 34 218,636 84 -193,646 20 -24,990 29 Corn 1,526,201 25 519,356 96 -470,715 5 -48,641 15 Coffee 222,172 1 41,851 79 -45,824 24 3,973 16 Sugar 817,462 0 155,796 69 -194,333 31 38,537 55 Wheat 345,345 5 9,490 55 -7,030 34 -2,460 100   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 519,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 12,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 507,206 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.2 44.3 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.2 75.2 12.1 – Net Position: 519,356 -470,715 -48,641 – Gross Longs: 582,844 676,718 135,850 – Gross Shorts: 63,488 1,147,433 184,491 – Long to Short Ratio: 9.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 96.4 4.9 15.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.7 -12.5 -6.8   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 155,796 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 156,580 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.9 51.4 10.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.9 75.1 6.1 – Net Position: 155,796 -194,333 38,537 – Gross Longs: 212,075 419,942 88,696 – Gross Shorts: 56,279 614,275 50,159 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.8 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.6 31.3 55.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.8 -18.5 25.5   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 41,851 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,500 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.9 53.2 4.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.0 73.8 2.8 – Net Position: 41,851 -45,824 3,973 – Gross Longs: 53,000 118,138 10,190 – Gross Shorts: 11,149 163,962 6,217 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.8 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.0 24.0 15.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.2 20.8 -9.8   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 218,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,037 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 217,599 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.2 44.9 7.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.2 70.6 10.4 – Net Position: 218,636 -193,646 -24,990 – Gross Longs: 265,191 338,902 53,105 – Gross Shorts: 46,555 532,548 78,095 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.4 20.3 28.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.2 -4.1 14.7   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 92,568 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,927 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.7 48.9 10.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.0 81.0 4.8 – Net Position: 92,568 -111,498 18,930 – Gross Longs: 110,061 169,898 35,595 – Gross Shorts: 17,493 281,396 16,665 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.8 24.0 84.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.3 -16.9 26.9   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 128,784 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 130,255 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.9 41.7 11.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.1 81.8 4.7 – Net Position: 128,784 -157,051 28,267 – Gross Longs: 140,982 163,690 46,858 – Gross Shorts: 12,198 320,741 18,591 – Long to Short Ratio: 11.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 99.2 1.3 83.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.5 -12.8 8.4   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 46,739 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,483 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,256 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.2 41.8 10.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.1 53.9 13.6 – Net Position: 46,739 -37,444 -9,295 – Gross Longs: 108,953 129,408 32,699 – Gross Shorts: 62,214 166,852 41,994 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 20.4 77.1 64.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.2 24.3 8.8   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 45,985 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,505 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,490 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.3 35.9 9.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.5 52.3 13.3 – Net Position: 45,985 -37,830 -8,155 – Gross Longs: 86,563 83,339 22,630 – Gross Shorts: 40,578 121,169 30,785 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.8 48.8 52.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.5 20.3 17.7   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 87,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,321 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.7 37.3 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.8 81.1 3.2 – Net Position: 87,354 -101,015 13,661 – Gross Longs: 100,659 85,918 20,968 – Gross Shorts: 13,305 186,933 7,307 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 78.3 18.9 98.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.3 5.3 4.7   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,204 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,691 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.6 47.3 7.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.9 63.8 3.3 – Net Position: 31,204 -40,535 9,331 – Gross Longs: 72,893 116,511 17,572 – Gross Shorts: 41,689 157,046 8,241 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.2 46.5 90.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.4 6.5 48.2   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 9,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,440 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,930 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 42.0 9.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.1 44.1 10.1 – Net Position: 9,490 -7,030 -2,460 – Gross Longs: 113,410 145,144 32,492 – Gross Shorts: 103,920 152,174 34,952 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.1 34.0 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.1 -14.6 10.3   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Metals Speculators push Copper bets higher, maintain bullish sentiment

Metals Speculators push Copper bets higher, maintain bullish sentiment

Invest Macro Invest Macro 27.03.2022 00:12
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent rise in the Copper futures bets. The speculative net position in the Copper futures gained by over +7,700 contracts this week and pushed the current standing back above the +20,000 contract level for the fifth time in the past six weeks. The speculator position had retreated last week by over -12,000 contracts and dropped the standing below the +20,000 contract threshold for the first time since the beginning of February. Copper speculator positioning has now been in a continuous bullish level since June 6th of 2020, a span of ninety-four consecutive weeks. The Copper strength index (the current positioning compared to the speculator positioning of the past three years) has a score slightly above the middle of its range at a 61.7 percent and shows that Copper sentiment is bullish but not currently near the top of its range. Joining Copper (7,782 contracts) in rising this week was just Platinum (1,883 contracts) while Gold (-13,756 contracts), Silver (-3,607 contracts) and Palladium (-199 contracts) all saw speculator contracts decline for the week. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,788,211 0 339,969 3 -380,080 91 40,111 72 Gold 605,191 48 248,032 67 -281,595 32 33,563 59 Silver 155,456 21 47,947 70 -64,557 36 16,610 40 Copper 197,244 24 26,812 62 -34,604 36 7,792 70 Palladium 6,948 2 -1,208 15 238 78 970 100 Platinum 64,000 29 19,815 30 -27,047 70 7,232 63 Natural Gas 1,085,676 1 -149,337 34 107,446 65 41,891 85 Brent 191,138 32 -24,666 70 22,639 31 2,027 37 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 754,382 34 218,636 84 -193,646 20 -24,990 29 Corn 1,526,201 25 519,356 96 -470,715 5 -48,641 15 Coffee 222,172 1 41,851 79 -45,824 24 3,973 16 Sugar 817,462 0 155,796 69 -194,333 31 38,537 55 Wheat 345,345 5 9,490 55 -7,030 34 -2,460 100   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 248,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,756 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 261,788 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 54.3 25.6 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.3 72.1 3.3 – Net Position: 248,032 -281,595 33,563 – Gross Longs: 328,660 155,039 53,441 – Gross Shorts: 80,628 436,634 19,878 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 66.6 31.7 59.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.4 -21.4 25.1   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 47,947 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,607 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,554 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.6 28.5 17.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.7 70.0 6.6 – Net Position: 47,947 -64,557 16,610 – Gross Longs: 69,279 44,270 26,925 – Gross Shorts: 21,332 108,827 10,315 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.2 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.2 35.5 39.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 28.6 -31.4 19.4   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 26,812 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,782 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,030 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.3 41.5 9.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.7 59.1 5.5 – Net Position: 26,812 -34,604 7,792 – Gross Longs: 81,523 81,894 18,568 – Gross Shorts: 54,711 116,498 10,776 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 61.7 35.7 70.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.7 -6.2 6.5   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 19,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,932 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.3 30.0 15.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.3 72.3 4.2 – Net Position: 19,815 -27,047 7,232 – Gross Longs: 32,184 19,220 9,888 – Gross Shorts: 12,369 46,267 2,656 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1 0.4 to 1 3.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.4 70.3 62.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.7 -14.9 32.9   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -199 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,009 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.4 46.3 24.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.8 42.8 10.0 – Net Position: -1,208 238 970 – Gross Longs: 1,973 3,214 1,665 – Gross Shorts: 3,181 2,976 695 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.1 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.7 77.8 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.1 -4.6 44.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Bonds Speculators take a pause on their 10-Year Treasury Notes bearish bets

Bonds Speculators take a pause on their 10-Year Treasury Notes bearish bets

Invest Macro Invest Macro 27.03.2022 13:27
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT bonds data is the pullback in the 10-Year Bond bearish bets this week. The speculative position in the 10-Year Bond has risen for two straight weeks following three straight weeks of declines (or rising bearish bets). The last two week’s rise has shaved off over 113,886 contracts from the total bearish position and brings the current standing to the least bearish level of the past five weeks at a total of -263,834 contracts. The 10-Year has been under pressure like most all bond markets as the Federal Reserve has started raising interest rates with an outlook of more rate increases to come. The 10-Year yield (as bond prices fall, yields rise) has been sharping surging to the upside with the close this week right around the 2.50 percent level, marking its highest yield since May of 2019. The speculator’s 10-Year bond pullback this week will likely be short-lived and it will be interesting to see if this latest bout of inflation, growth and central bank rate rises will be enough to finally break the multi-decade bull market for bonds. The bond markets with higher speculator bets were the 10-Year Bond (57,163 contracts), Fed Funds (91,899 contracts) and the 5-Year Bond (50,964 contracts). The bond markets with lower speculator bets were the 2-Year Bond (-27,015 contracts), Eurodollar (-128,245 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (-21,571 contracts), Long US Bond (-11,687 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-32,279 contracts). Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index Eurodollar 10,832,338 41 -2,656,722 0 3,074,395 100 -417,673 13 FedFunds 2,132,176 81 -13,382 38 29,682 63 -16,300 18 2-Year 2,297,315 20 -47,448 73 126,538 48 -79,090 10 Long T-Bond 1,128,229 36 32,551 95 -5,394 18 -27,157 31 10-Year 3,807,553 51 -263,834 31 464,339 80 -200,505 32 5-Year 3,774,450 36 -296,338 31 544,383 80 -248,045 13   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,656,722 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -128,245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,528,477 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.2 75.7 3.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.7 47.4 7.4 – Net Position: -2,656,722 3,074,395 -417,673 – Gross Longs: 451,791 8,204,977 389,102 – Gross Shorts: 3,108,513 5,130,582 806,775 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 12.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.9 11.0 5.8   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,382 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 91,899 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,281 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.1 77.0 1.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.7 75.6 2.6 – Net Position: -13,382 29,682 -16,300 – Gross Longs: 150,828 1,640,744 38,998 – Gross Shorts: 164,210 1,611,062 55,298 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.0 63.5 18.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.2 5.6 -10.5   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -47,448 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -27,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,433 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.9 73.9 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.0 68.4 9.6 – Net Position: -47,448 126,538 -79,090 – Gross Longs: 365,795 1,697,892 140,374 – Gross Shorts: 413,243 1,571,354 219,464 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.7 47.5 9.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 5.2 5.5   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -296,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 50,964 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -347,302 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.1 81.6 7.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.9 67.2 13.7 – Net Position: -296,338 544,383 -248,045 – Gross Longs: 342,471 3,081,019 268,697 – Gross Shorts: 638,809 2,536,636 516,742 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 79.7 12.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.8 21.1 -2.5   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -263,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 57,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -320,997 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.8 77.9 7.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.8 65.7 13.2 – Net Position: -263,834 464,339 -200,505 – Gross Longs: 412,030 2,966,196 302,390 – Gross Shorts: 675,864 2,501,857 502,895 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.4 80.0 32.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.5 -2.3 18.6   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -91,321 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -21,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,750 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.7 80.5 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.7 63.9 18.8 – Net Position: -91,321 214,698 -123,377 – Gross Longs: 125,921 1,045,958 120,546 – Gross Shorts: 217,242 831,260 243,923 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.6 100.0 41.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -35.7 27.0 20.8   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 32,551 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,687 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,238 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.7 72.6 13.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.9 73.1 16.3 – Net Position: 32,551 -5,394 -27,157 – Gross Longs: 109,965 819,658 156,236 – Gross Shorts: 77,414 825,052 183,393 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.2 18.4 31.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.3 -18.7 -5.4   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -298,523 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -32,279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -266,244 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.6 81.2 12.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.2 61.0 9.2 – Net Position: -298,523 255,630 42,893 – Gross Longs: 70,425 1,026,988 158,649 – Gross Shorts: 368,948 771,358 115,756 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 63.4 40.0 59.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.1 -14.1 8.3   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Large Currency Speculators sharply cut back on Canadian dollar bets

Large Currency Speculators sharply cut back on Canadian dollar bets

Invest Macro Invest Macro 27.03.2022 13:29
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the sharp pullback in the Canadian dollar currency futures contracts. Canadian dollar speculators cut back on their bullish bets by a total of -22,680 contracts, the largest change among currencies this week and one week after CAD saw bullish bets rise by over +10,000 contracts (bringing the speculator standing to a six-week high). This week’s decline dropped the total net speculator standing back into bearish territory (-4,940 contracts) for the first time in the past ten weeks, dating back to January 11th. The major commodity currencies (Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar) all saw pullbacks in their speculator bets this week after strong rises last week. The only currency markets with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (1,255 contracts) and the Euro (5,049 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-16,142 contracts), Brazil real (-2,599 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,195 contracts), British pound sterling (-8,183 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-1,133 contracts), Canadian dollar (-22,680 contracts), Russian ruble (-263 contracts) and Bitcoin (-190 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 51,952 72 29,635 77 -33,521 19 3,886 59 EUR 658,817 66 23,843 42 -46,378 63 22,535 12 GBP 195,712 36 -37,244 47 50,390 59 -13,146 28 JPY 248,221 87 -78,482 18 104,790 88 -26,308 0 CHF 44,911 21 -8,424 55 20,499 54 -12,075 28 CAD 124,090 13 -4,940 43 -7,565 54 12,505 55 AUD 127,767 28 -51,189 37 48,388 55 2,801 59 NZD 35,256 15 2,520 75 -2,069 27 -451 47 MXN 134,766 19 -18,051 20 13,919 79 4,132 61 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 70,832 68 41,564 91 -44,463 8 2,899 100 Bitcoin 11,274 61 0 94 -481 0 481 24   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,380 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.8 3.2 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.8 67.7 3.0 – Net Position: 29,635 -33,521 3,886 – Gross Longs: 43,561 1,665 5,434 – Gross Shorts: 13,926 35,186 1,548 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.1 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.9 18.9 59.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.1 12.1 -34.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,843 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,049 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,794 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.4 54.3 11.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.8 61.3 8.1 – Net Position: 23,843 -46,378 22,535 – Gross Longs: 207,051 357,492 75,970 – Gross Shorts: 183,208 403,870 53,435 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.3 62.6 11.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.6 7.6 -19.7   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -37,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,061 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.7 70.4 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.8 44.7 16.6 – Net Position: -37,244 50,390 -13,146 – Gross Longs: 32,753 137,829 19,316 – Gross Shorts: 69,997 87,439 32,462 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.2 59.5 28.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.7 24.3 -25.6   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -78,482 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,340 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.8 76.2 7.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.4 34.0 17.7 – Net Position: -78,482 104,790 -26,308 – Gross Longs: 36,676 189,100 17,749 – Gross Shorts: 115,158 84,310 44,057 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 18.4 88.2 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.2 14.3 -19.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,229 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.4 68.3 18.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.1 22.6 45.0 – Net Position: -8,424 20,499 -12,075 – Gross Longs: 6,012 30,663 8,143 – Gross Shorts: 14,436 10,164 20,218 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 3.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.2 53.9 27.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.7 4.0 -13.4   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -22,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,740 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.6 47.8 26.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.6 53.9 16.8 – Net Position: -4,940 -7,565 12,505 – Gross Longs: 29,314 59,269 33,406 – Gross Shorts: 34,254 66,834 20,901 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.9 54.1 54.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.2 6.8 20.8   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -51,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,856 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.6 59.4 20.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 58.7 21.5 17.8 – Net Position: -51,189 48,388 2,801 – Gross Longs: 23,747 75,916 25,508 – Gross Shorts: 74,936 27,528 22,707 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 37.4 55.0 59.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 32.0 -37.3 37.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 2,520 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,133 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,653 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 48.7 40.4 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.5 46.2 10.7 – Net Position: 2,520 -2,069 -451 – Gross Longs: 17,156 14,227 3,339 – Gross Shorts: 14,636 16,296 3,790 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.5 27.2 46.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.6 -22.8 21.9   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -18,051 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,576 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.1 51.1 5.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 56.5 40.8 2.0 – Net Position: -18,051 13,919 4,132 – Gross Longs: 58,150 68,880 6,851 – Gross Shorts: 76,201 54,961 2,719 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 19.6 78.6 60.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.2 7.5 5.5   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 41,564 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,163 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.6 15.3 6.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.0 78.1 2.8 – Net Position: 41,564 -44,463 2,899 – Gross Longs: 55,001 10,863 4,851 – Gross Shorts: 13,437 55,326 1,952 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.2 7.9 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.9 -21.5 8.5   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 0 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 190 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 74.7 2.9 11.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 74.7 7.2 6.9 – Net Position: 0 -481 481 – Gross Longs: 8,425 326 1,263 – Gross Shorts: 8,425 807 782 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.3 2.9 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.8 -23.4 -0.6   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Soft Commodities Speculators raise Cocoa bullish bets to 5-week high

COT Soft Commodities Speculators raise Cocoa bullish bets to 5-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 02.04.2022 16:40
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the recent rises in Cocoa futures bets. The speculative net position in the Cocoa futures rose this week by the largest one-week amount in the past seven weeks and rose for the third time in the past four weeks. This week’s boost brought the current net standing to the highest standing in the past five weeks at just under the +40,000 net position level. The Cocoa speculator position has been mostly in bullish territory over the past three years with small, short-lived pockets in bearish territory along the way. Cocoa saw its highest sentiment levels of the past three years in early 2020 with speculator positions reaching over +80,000 contracts before spec positions dropped sharply as the pandemic began. Speculator bets fell as low as -17,038 contracts in July 2020. Since then, Cocoa bets have fluctuated between small bearish levels all the way up to +40,000 contracts while the Cocoa price has similarly fluctuated but has maintained a bullish uptrend. This week’s +39,674 contracts level marks a 56.5 percent strength index score which equates to a slightly bullish level compared to the past three years. All of the soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Sugar (5,785 contracts), Live Cattle (6,006 contracts), Lean Hogs (7,209 contracts), Cocoa (8,470 contracts) and Wheat (4,069 contracts). The soft commodity markets that saw lower speculator bets this week were Corn (-37,264 contracts), Coffee (-3,162 contracts), Soybeans (-12,167 contracts), Soybean Oil (-5,284 contracts), Soybean Meal (-6,999 contracts) and Cotton (-3,194 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-29-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,795,929 1 318,731 0 -360,162 99 41,431 73 Gold 574,521 39 257,596 70 -285,937 30 28,341 45 Silver 147,370 14 48,240 70 -61,372 39 13,132 19 Copper 203,692 29 30,581 64 -37,333 34 6,752 64 Palladium 6,720 1 -2,011 10 1,364 84 647 81 Platinum 61,807 25 14,001 22 -20,754 79 6,753 56 Natural Gas 1,100,690 4 -137,411 37 92,762 60 44,649 92 Brent 188,542 30 -25,220 69 21,609 29 3,611 58 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 755,139 34 206,469 81 -178,764 24 -27,705 24 Corn 1,515,106 24 482,092 92 -424,699 11 -57,393 10 Coffee 227,547 6 38,689 77 -42,092 27 3,403 12 Sugar 819,459 1 161,581 70 -202,758 30 41,177 59 Wheat 341,224 3 13,559 59 -9,435 32 -4,124 91   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 482,092 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -37,264 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 519,356 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.5 45.6 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.6 73.7 12.6 – Net Position: 482,092 -424,699 -57,393 – Gross Longs: 552,536 691,549 133,661 – Gross Shorts: 70,444 1,116,248 191,054 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.6 11.4 10.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.6 -7.1 -10.3   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 161,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 155,796 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.1 49.9 11.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.4 74.6 6.0 – Net Position: 161,581 -202,758 41,177 – Gross Longs: 222,154 408,820 90,668 – Gross Shorts: 60,573 611,578 49,491 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.8 29.7 58.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.9 -21.3 31.3   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 38,689 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,851 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.4 53.3 4.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.4 71.8 2.8 – Net Position: 38,689 -42,092 3,403 – Gross Longs: 50,991 121,208 9,798 – Gross Shorts: 12,302 163,300 6,395 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.7 26.9 11.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.0 26.1 -9.7   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 206,469 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,167 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 218,636 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.6 46.4 6.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.3 70.1 10.6 – Net Position: 206,469 -178,764 -27,705 – Gross Longs: 253,726 350,240 52,406 – Gross Shorts: 47,257 529,004 80,111 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 81.4 23.8 24.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 1.8 4.4   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 87,284 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,284 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,568 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.6 49.1 9.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.0 79.3 5.2 – Net Position: 87,284 -102,850 15,566 – Gross Longs: 104,186 167,198 33,429 – Gross Shorts: 16,902 270,048 17,863 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.9 28.4 71.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.8 -11.1 8.3   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 121,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,999 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 128,784 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.3 41.8 12.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.6 79.8 4.8 – Net Position: 121,785 -150,719 28,934 – Gross Longs: 135,876 165,743 47,934 – Gross Shorts: 14,091 316,462 19,000 – Long to Short Ratio: 9.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.3 4.6 85.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.8 -7.8 11.4   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 52,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,006 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,739 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.4 41.7 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.3 55.4 13.8 – Net Position: 52,745 -42,343 -10,402 – Gross Longs: 109,521 129,222 32,487 – Gross Shorts: 56,776 171,565 42,889 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.4 73.1 61.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.7 22.6 8.5   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 53,194 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,209 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,985 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.1 33.7 9.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.6 52.7 13.1 – Net Position: 53,194 -45,016 -8,178 – Gross Longs: 92,407 79,772 22,919 – Gross Shorts: 39,213 124,788 31,097 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 64.7 40.3 52.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.4 13.2 15.0   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,354 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.2 36.1 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.2 78.8 3.2 – Net Position: 84,160 -97,258 13,098 – Gross Longs: 98,239 82,066 20,362 – Gross Shorts: 14,079 179,324 7,264 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.3 21.1 95.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.1 4.1 15.8   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 39,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,204 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.7 47.4 7.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.3 67.5 3.7 – Net Position: 39,674 -48,448 8,774 – Gross Longs: 74,233 114,490 17,726 – Gross Shorts: 34,559 162,938 8,952 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.5 38.8 84.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 5.2 40.5   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 13,559 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,069 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,490 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.1 40.5 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 43.3 10.3 – Net Position: 13,559 -9,435 -4,124 – Gross Longs: 112,940 138,288 31,061 – Gross Shorts: 99,381 147,723 35,185 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.6 31.7 91.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.5 -18.9 0.2   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Energy Speculators pullback on #2 Heating Oil bullish bets for 3rd time in 4 weeks

COT Energy Speculators pullback on #2 Heating Oil bullish bets for 3rd time in 4 weeks

Invest Macro Invest Macro 02.04.2022 16:53
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT energy data is the recent decline in the Heating Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the Heating Oil futures has dropped for two consecutive weeks and in three out of the past four weeks. The spec crude position has declined by a total of -9,420 contracts over the past four weeks and speculators have now pushed their current net positioning to the lowest level in six weeks. Heating Oil speculator positions are currently (+6,455 contracts) at the lower end of their range after averaging approximately +20,000 contracts each week over the whole of 2021. Heating Oil prices, meanwhile, have seen price surges (hitting multi-year highs) in the past few months due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine but did retrace lower this week with a decline by approximately -8.00 percent for the week at Friday’s close. The energy markets that saw higher speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (11,926 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (2,972 contracts). The energy markets that saw lower speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-21,238 contracts), Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts), Gasoline (-8,168 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (-554 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-29-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,795,929 1 318,731 0 -360,162 99 41,431 73 Gold 574,521 39 257,596 70 -285,937 30 28,341 45 Silver 147,370 14 48,240 70 -61,372 39 13,132 19 Copper 203,692 29 30,581 64 -37,333 34 6,752 64 Palladium 6,720 1 -2,011 10 1,364 84 647 81 Platinum 61,807 25 14,001 22 -20,754 79 6,753 56 Natural Gas 1,100,690 4 -137,411 37 92,762 60 44,649 92 Brent 188,542 30 -25,220 69 21,609 29 3,611 58 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 755,139 34 206,469 81 -178,764 24 -27,705 24 Corn 1,515,106 24 482,092 92 -424,699 11 -57,393 10 Coffee 227,547 6 38,689 77 -42,092 27 3,403 12 Sugar 819,459 1 161,581 70 -202,758 30 41,177 59 Wheat 341,224 3 13,559 59 -9,435 32 -4,124 91   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 318,731 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,238 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 339,969 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.4 36.5 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.6 56.5 2.5 – Net Position: 318,731 -360,162 41,431 – Gross Longs: 420,097 654,965 85,767 – Gross Shorts: 101,366 1,015,127 44,336 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 99.4 73.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.8 12.7 -3.5   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -25,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,666 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.2 44.2 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.6 32.7 2.5 – Net Position: -25,220 21,609 3,611 – Gross Longs: 38,169 83,276 8,330 – Gross Shorts: 63,389 61,667 4,719 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.9 29.2 58.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.9 -1.1 -5.9   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -137,411 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,926 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -149,337 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.6 42.7 6.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.1 34.3 2.2 – Net Position: -137,411 92,762 44,649 – Gross Longs: 249,135 470,232 68,418 – Gross Shorts: 386,546 377,470 23,769 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 37.3 60.1 92.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.8 -2.3 33.2   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 40,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,168 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,370 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.1 53.0 7.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.0 69.7 4.9 – Net Position: 40,202 -47,775 7,573 – Gross Longs: 74,554 151,056 21,630 – Gross Shorts: 34,352 198,831 14,057 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 11.0 89.2 56.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.8 25.0 -15.4   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9 – Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979 – Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210 – Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -9,348 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,972 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,320 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 70.8 23.8 2.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 97.2 0.0 0.3 – Net Position: -9,348 8,415 933 – Gross Longs: 25,002 8,415 1,022 – Gross Shorts: 34,350 0 89 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 inf to 1 11.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.7 25.7 52.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.4 -30.9 11.7   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Metals Speculators pushing their Copper bullish bets higher in start of 2022

COT Metals Speculators pushing their Copper bullish bets higher in start of 2022

Invest Macro Invest Macro 02.04.2022 17:33
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent gains in the Copper futures bets. The speculative net position in the Copper futures has risen for two consecutive weeks and three times in the past four weeks with a total increase by +8,488 contracts over the past four weeks. The recent strength in speculator bets has pushed the current speculator standing back over the +30,000 net contract level for the third time in the past seven weeks following fourteen weeks where spec bets remained below that threshold. Copper bets had hit an 81-week low in late December and had four weeks with speculator bets below the +10,000 contract level at that time. The new year has seen speculators start to increase their sentiment in favor of the red metal and Copper speculator position has now averaged over +23,500 net contracts each week since January 1st. This is down from the 2021 average of 33,688 weekly contracts but above the 2020 average of 20,214 weekly contracts. The Copper price has also had a bullish start to the year with Copper futures currently trading at 4.68 compared to the 4.46 price to start the year. The metals markets that saw higher speculator bets this week were Silver (293 contracts), Gold (9,564 contracts) and Copper (3,769 contracts). The metals markets that saw lower speculator bets this week were Platinum (-5,814 contracts) and Palladium (-803 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-29-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,795,929 1 318,731 0 -360,162 99 41,431 73 Gold 574,521 39 257,596 70 -285,937 30 28,341 45 Silver 147,370 14 48,240 70 -61,372 39 13,132 19 Copper 203,692 29 30,581 64 -37,333 34 6,752 64 Palladium 6,720 1 -2,011 10 1,364 84 647 81 Platinum 61,807 25 14,001 22 -20,754 79 6,753 56 Natural Gas 1,100,690 4 -137,411 37 92,762 60 44,649 92 Brent 188,542 30 -25,220 69 21,609 29 3,611 58 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 755,139 34 206,469 81 -178,764 24 -27,705 24 Corn 1,515,106 24 482,092 92 -424,699 11 -57,393 10 Coffee 227,547 6 38,689 77 -42,092 27 3,403 12 Sugar 819,459 1 161,581 70 -202,758 30 41,177 59 Wheat 341,224 3 13,559 59 -9,435 32 -4,124 91   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 257,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,564 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 248,032 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.0 23.2 8.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.2 72.9 3.6 – Net Position: 257,596 -285,937 28,341 – Gross Longs: 327,632 133,050 49,022 – Gross Shorts: 70,036 418,987 20,681 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.7 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.6 30.4 44.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.9 -14.3 8.8   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 48,240 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 293 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,947 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.7 30.3 17.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.0 71.9 8.2 – Net Position: 48,240 -61,372 13,132 – Gross Longs: 65,917 44,589 25,145 – Gross Shorts: 17,677 105,961 12,013 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.4 38.7 19.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.6 -24.6 2.0   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 30,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,812 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.5 40.8 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.5 59.1 5.5 – Net Position: 30,581 -37,333 6,752 – Gross Longs: 86,553 83,024 17,961 – Gross Shorts: 55,972 120,357 11,209 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 64.4 33.8 64.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.1 1.4 -11.4   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,814 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,815 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 47.9 32.0 15.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.2 65.6 4.9 – Net Position: 14,001 -20,754 6,753 – Gross Longs: 29,585 19,797 9,798 – Gross Shorts: 15,584 40,551 3,045 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 3.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 21.9 79.4 56.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.6 -6.8 12.1   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,011 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,208 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.3 53.3 21.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.2 33.0 12.2 – Net Position: -2,011 1,364 647 – Gross Longs: 1,564 3,581 1,468 – Gross Shorts: 3,575 2,217 821 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.1 84.2 81.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.8 2.6 31.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
10-Year Treasury Bonds Speculator bets surge to 177-week bearish high

10-Year Treasury Bonds Speculator bets surge to 177-week bearish high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 02.04.2022 17:53
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT bonds data is the surge in the 10-Year Bond bets this week. The speculative position in the 10-Year Bond saw a sharp jump in bearish bets this week (by -212,723 contracts) that marked the largest one-week bearish gain in the past two hundred and seventy-eight weeks, dating all the way back to November 29th of 2016. The 10-Year had shed bearish bets in the previous two weeks but has now seen higher bearish bets in four out of the past six weeks. This rising bearish sentiment has pushed the current net speculator standing (total of -476,557 contracts) to the most bearish level in the past one-hundred and seventy-seven weeks, dating back to November 6th of 2018 when positions were over -500,000 contracts. The 10-Year Bond price has also been dropping sharply and the 10-Year Bond yield rose to the highest level since April of 2019 above the 2.50 percent level this week (interest rates rise as bond prices fall). The outlook for Central Bank interest rate increases likely signals that there is much more weakness ahead for bonds (and gains in bond yields) and speculator sentiment will likely become more bearish. The bonds markets that saw higher speculator bets this week were Eurodollar (233,321 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year (17,885 contracts). The bonds markets that saw lower speculator bets this week were 2-Year Bond (-11,754 contracts), 10-Year Bond (-212,723 contracts), Long US Bond (-16,550 contracts), Fed Funds (-1,024 contracts), 5-Year Bond (-65,052 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-25,035 contracts). Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-29-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index Eurodollar 10,936,414 43 -2,423,401 4 2,851,684 96 -428,283 10 FedFunds 2,130,653 81 -14,406 38 35,287 64 -20,881 7 2-Year 2,251,100 18 -59,202 70 161,882 55 -102,680 0 Long T-Bond 1,109,506 33 16,001 90 -3,123 19 -12,878 42 10-Year 3,669,449 41 -476,557 0 657,549 100 -180,992 36 5-Year 3,756,307 35 -361,390 20 598,864 86 -237,474 16   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,423,401 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 233,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,656,722 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.2 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.1 74.7 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.2 48.6 7.9 – Net Position: -2,423,401 2,851,684 -428,283 – Gross Longs: 447,292 8,166,593 431,468 – Gross Shorts: 2,870,693 5,314,909 859,751 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.5 95.9 10.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 2.2 2.2   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,406 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,024 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,382 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.1 77.1 1.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.8 75.4 2.3 – Net Position: -14,406 35,287 -20,881 – Gross Longs: 172,450 1,642,231 27,817 – Gross Shorts: 186,856 1,606,944 48,698 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 37.8 64.2 6.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.6 4.7 -4.0   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -59,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,754 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,448 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.0 76.4 6.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.6 69.2 10.8 – Net Position: -59,202 161,882 -102,680 – Gross Longs: 314,664 1,719,719 140,420 – Gross Shorts: 373,866 1,557,837 243,100 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.3 55.2 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.4 -4.9 -15.1   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -361,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -65,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -296,338 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.2 82.6 7.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.9 66.6 13.5 – Net Position: -361,390 598,864 -237,474 – Gross Longs: 309,236 3,101,800 270,067 – Gross Shorts: 670,626 2,502,936 507,541 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 19.8 86.3 15.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -29.8 21.9 -2.7   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -476,557 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -212,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -263,834 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.5 80.2 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.5 62.2 13.9 – Net Position: -476,557 657,549 -180,992 – Gross Longs: 276,588 2,941,177 328,695 – Gross Shorts: 753,145 2,283,628 509,687 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 36.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -46.0 26.3 18.9   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -73,436 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 17,885 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,321 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.7 80.7 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.2 65.2 18.9 – Net Position: -73,436 205,679 -132,243 – Gross Longs: 128,735 1,071,757 119,198 – Gross Shorts: 202,171 866,078 251,441 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 8.4 97.6 35.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.1 20.1 7.5   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 16,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,551 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.1 73.1 14.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.7 73.4 15.7 – Net Position: 16,001 -3,123 -12,878 – Gross Longs: 100,986 810,834 161,498 – Gross Shorts: 84,985 813,957 174,376 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.8 19.1 42.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.3 -14.7 4.1   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -323,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -25,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -298,523 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.3 82.2 11.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.4 59.8 9.2 – Net Position: -323,558 288,970 34,588 – Gross Longs: 68,282 1,059,413 152,895 – Gross Shorts: 391,840 770,443 118,307 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.2 56.4 53.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.7 -4.7 2.2   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Currency Speculators continue Japanese Yen bearishness, push bearish bets to 20-week high

Currency Speculators continue Japanese Yen bearishness, push bearish bets to 20-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 02.04.2022 19:33
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the increase of bearish bets in the Japanese yen currency futures contracts. Japanese yen speculators raised their bearish bets for a third straight week this week and for the fourth time in the past five weeks. Over this five-week time-frame, yen bets have now dropped by a total of -38,944 contracts, going from -63,187 net positions on February 22nd to -102,131 net positions this week. This weakness in speculator sentiment has pushed the current Yen positioning to the most bearish level in the past twenty weeks, dating back to November 9th when net positions over over -105,000 contracts. Since the new year, yen speculator positions have averaged -70,432 weekly contracts, underscoring the sentiment weakness and compared to the 2021 weekly positions average of -44,182 contracts (positions averaged +17,100 weekly contracts in 2020). Japanese yen prices have also been extremely weak versus the other major currencies. Currently, the yen has recorded losses against all of the majors year-to-date and many majors currencies are trading at the highest levels since 2015 versus the yen. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (1,306 contracts), Australian dollar (1,583 contracts), Brazil real (1,052 contracts), Canadian dollar (3,405 contracts) and the Mexican peso (9,804 contracts). The currencies with declining bets this week were the Japanese yen (-23,649 contracts), Euro (-2,469 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,155 contracts), British pound sterling (-2,826 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-3,387 contracts), Russian ruble (-263 contracts) and Bitcoin (-271 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-29-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 53,967 76 30,941 79 -35,106 16 4,165 62 EUR 662,415 67 21,374 42 -47,348 62 25,974 17 GBP 224,365 54 -40,070 45 52,009 60 -11,939 31 JPY 239,698 82 -102,131 3 124,850 98 -22,719 7 CHF 44,327 20 -11,579 50 23,228 57 -11,649 29 CAD 147,421 28 -1,535 46 -15,518 48 17,053 64 AUD 143,007 39 -49,606 39 40,894 49 8,712 74 NZD 34,881 15 -867 70 -3 30 870 62 MXN 157,779 30 -8,247 24 3,286 74 4,961 64 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 78,894 79 42,616 92 -45,623 7 3,007 100 Bitcoin 12,024 66 -271 89 -411 0 682 28   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 30,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,635 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.3 2.8 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.0 67.8 2.8 – Net Position: 30,941 -35,106 4,165 – Gross Longs: 44,970 1,493 5,684 – Gross Shorts: 14,029 36,599 1,519 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.2 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.2 16.3 62.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.7 10.7 -21.9   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,374 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,469 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,843 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.2 55.0 12.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.0 62.1 8.2 – Net Position: 21,374 -47,348 25,974 – Gross Longs: 200,043 364,163 80,321 – Gross Shorts: 178,669 411,511 54,347 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.6 62.3 17.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.0 10.7 -19.0   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40,070 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,244 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.6 73.3 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.5 50.1 15.2 – Net Position: -40,070 52,009 -11,939 – Gross Longs: 30,624 164,519 22,187 – Gross Shorts: 70,694 112,510 34,126 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.1 60.4 30.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.5 29.1 -14.2   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -102,131 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -23,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,482 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.4 83.9 8.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.0 31.8 18.0 – Net Position: -102,131 124,850 -22,719 – Gross Longs: 15,274 201,190 20,392 – Gross Shorts: 117,405 76,340 43,111 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.5 98.2 7.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.7 19.1 -5.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,579 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,424 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.4 73.2 19.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.5 20.8 45.5 – Net Position: -11,579 23,228 -11,649 – Gross Longs: 3,292 32,430 8,522 – Gross Shorts: 14,871 9,202 20,171 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.7 57.0 29.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.3 4.9 -7.3   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,535 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,405 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,940 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.0 52.1 24.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.0 62.6 13.4 – Net Position: -1,535 -15,518 17,053 – Gross Longs: 32,429 76,738 36,771 – Gross Shorts: 33,964 92,256 19,718 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.2 48.3 63.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.3 -0.3 28.1   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -49,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,189 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.7 56.6 18.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 58.4 28.0 12.7 – Net Position: -49,606 40,894 8,712 – Gross Longs: 33,960 80,885 26,806 – Gross Shorts: 83,566 39,991 18,094 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.0 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.8 49.4 73.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 34.4 -42.4 48.0   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -867 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,520 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.4 44.5 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.9 44.5 8.0 – Net Position: -867 -3 870 – Gross Longs: 15,504 15,507 3,666 – Gross Shorts: 16,371 15,510 2,796 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.8 30.4 61.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.2 -18.5 40.7   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -8,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,804 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,051 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 47.6 46.9 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.8 44.8 1.7 – Net Position: -8,247 3,286 4,961 – Gross Longs: 75,081 73,952 7,577 – Gross Shorts: 83,328 70,666 2,616 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 2.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 23.8 74.2 64.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 6.4 8.0   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 42,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,564 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 67.3 26.2 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.2 84.0 2.3 – Net Position: 42,616 -45,623 3,007 – Gross Longs: 53,065 20,649 4,805 – Gross Shorts: 10,449 66,272 1,798 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.1 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.3 6.8 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.5 -18.9 6.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -271 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 0 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.9 3.2 10.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 83.1 6.6 5.2 – Net Position: -271 -411 682 – Gross Longs: 9,722 383 1,302 – Gross Shorts: 9,993 794 620 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.5 8.5 28.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.2 -15.9 5.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/3/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/3/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 03.04.2022 21:41
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 1,355 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions of 3,794 contracts and an increase in short positions of 2,539 contracts. There was a significant decrease in the total net positions of large speculators in the Canadian dollar last week, which fell by 22,690 contracts. At the same time, total net positions of large speculators moved from bullish to overall bearish sentiment for the first time in 10 weeks. The rise in total net positions of large speculators occurred only in the euro last week. There was a decline in total net positions in the other currencies monitored. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.   Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 22, 2022 29635 23843 -37244 -51189 2520 -78482 -4940 -8424 Mar 15, 2022 28380 18794 -29061 -44856 3653 -62340 17740 -5229 Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 22, 2022 658817 207051 183208 23843 -7193 5011 -38 5049 Bullish Mar 15, 2022 666010 202040 183246 18794 -72980 -40643 -593 -40050 Weak bullish Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish         Total Change -41281 -11922 3077 -14999     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 23,843 contracts last week, up by 5,049 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 5,011 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 38 contracts. These data suggest bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest fell by 7,193 contracts last week. This shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was not supported by the volume and is therefore a weak trend. The euro continues to move in a downtrend. It returned to a resistance level last week, which could be an opportunity to trade short.  Long-term resistance: 1.1120 – 1.1150. Support: 1.080-1.0850. The next support is at 1.0650-1.0700. The support can b also a value around 1.0900.   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 22, 2022 195712 32753 69997 -37244 7389 311 8494 -8183 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 188323 32442 61503 -29061 -57989 -18540 -2005 -16535 Bearish Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish         Total Change -2236 -11956 16743 -28699     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 37,244 contracts, down by 8,183 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth of long positions by 311 contracts and the growth of short positions by 8,494 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative while there has been a further decline. Open interest rose by 7,389 contracts last week. This means that the modest rise in the pound that occurred last week was supported by the volume and is therefore strong. However, the pound's growth was not significant. In addition, a pin bar formed on the weekly chart which would suggest more of a further weakening in line with sentiment. Long-term resistance: 1.3270 – 1.3300. Support is near 1.3000.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 22, 2022 127767 23747 74936 -51189 3246 -534 5799 -6333 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 124521 24281 69137 -44856 -72573 4760 -28579 33339 Weak bearish Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish         Total Change -68636 6424 -28128 34552     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 51,189 contracts, down by 6,333 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 534 contracts and an increase in short positions by 5,799 contracts. This data suggests a continuation of bearish sentiment in the Australian dollar. Last week there was an increase in open interest of 3,246 contracts. This means that the upward move that occurred last week was supported by the volume and was therefore strong as new money flowed into the market. The Australian dollar strengthened strongly again last week and reached a significant resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.7510-0.7560                                                                                                               Long-term support: 0.7370-0.7440.  A strong support is near 0.7160 – 0.7180.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 22, 2022 35256 17156 14636 2520 -3944 -4337 -3204 -1133 Weak bullish Mar 15, 2022 39200 21493 17840 3653 -14050 5718 -10314 16032 Bullish Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish         Total Change -19621 -12 -12898 12886     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 2,520 contracts last week, down by 1,133 contracts from the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 4,337 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 3,204 contracts. This data suggests that there was a weakening of bullish sentiment in the New Zealand dollar last week. Open interest fell by 3,944 contracts last week. Therefore, the upward movement in the NZDUSD that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and therefore the move was weak. The NZDUSD strengthened strongly last week and reached the resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.6980 – 0.7000 Long-term support: 0.6860-0.6920 and the next support is at 0.6730 – 0.6740.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Commodities Speculators push their Sugar bullish bets to 15-week high

Commodities Speculators push their Sugar bullish bets to 15-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 09.04.2022 12:55
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the jump in this week’s Sugar futures bets. The speculative net position in the Sugar futures rose by the largest one-week amount (+26,966 contracts) over the last four weeks and bullish bets have gained for two straight weeks. Sugar positions have also risen in six out of the past seven weeks with a total gain of +113,984 contracts over that time-frame. This recent speculator strength has pushed the current net standing (+188,547 contracts) to the highest level in the last fifteen weeks, dating back to December 21st. The strength index for Sugar is not yet in an extreme bullish score with the current score at 75.4 percent but the strength score has seen a change of 23.3 percent over the past six weeks (speculator strength index is current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme). Sugar prices have been on a renewed uptrend (after a drop under the 200-day moving average in January to early March) and closed this week at the highest level since November. The soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Corn (4,981 contracts), Sugar (26,966 contracts), Coffee (5,122 contracts), Soybean Oil (2,212 contracts), Soybean Meal (1,993 contracts), Cotton (150 contracts) and Wheat (6,392 contracts). The market that had declining speculator bets were Soybeans (-7,545 contracts), Live Cattle (-3,678 contracts), Lean Hogs (-7,694 contracts) and Cocoa (-3,040 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-05-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,823,366 5 308,594 0 -355,435 100 46,841 81 Gold 560,666 36 245,541 66 -278,758 33 33,217 58 Silver 148,526 15 45,034 67 -60,036 40 15,002 30 Copper 216,157 38 36,142 68 -43,039 30 6,897 65 Palladium 6,642 1 -2,041 10 1,443 85 598 78 Platinum 60,983 23 11,290 18 -17,905 83 6,615 54 Natural Gas 1,169,620 19 -136,611 38 92,647 60 43,964 90 Brent 189,394 31 -29,712 61 26,537 37 3,175 52 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 756,785 35 198,924 79 -170,882 26 -28,042 24 Corn 1,556,206 30 487,073 92 -424,154 12 -62,919 7 Coffee 226,730 5 43,811 80 -48,758 22 4,947 23 Sugar 859,871 10 188,547 75 -240,107 23 51,560 72 Wheat 344,615 5 19,951 64 -15,332 26 -4,619 89   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 487,073 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,981 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 482,092 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.9 45.4 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.6 72.7 13.0 – Net Position: 487,073 -424,154 -62,919 – Gross Longs: 558,043 706,995 139,773 – Gross Shorts: 70,970 1,131,149 202,692 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.3 11.5 6.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.5 -1.9 -12.7   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 188,547 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 26,966 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 161,581 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.3 47.1 12.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.3 75.0 6.1 – Net Position: 188,547 -240,107 51,560 – Gross Longs: 243,133 404,728 103,751 – Gross Shorts: 54,586 644,835 52,191 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.4 22.6 71.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 23.3 -27.4 38.9   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 43,811 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,689 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.3 51.3 4.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.0 72.9 2.5 – Net Position: 43,811 -48,758 4,947 – Gross Longs: 52,923 116,418 10,552 – Gross Shorts: 9,112 165,176 5,605 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.8 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.4 21.7 22.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.4 18.7 1.6   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 198,924 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 206,469 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.2 46.4 7.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.9 69.0 10.8 – Net Position: 198,924 -170,882 -28,042 – Gross Longs: 243,805 351,388 53,363 – Gross Shorts: 44,881 522,270 81,405 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.5 25.6 23.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.8 6.1 2.8   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 89,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,284 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.5 48.0 9.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.9 78.1 5.3 – Net Position: 89,496 -105,183 15,687 – Gross Longs: 106,458 167,920 34,352 – Gross Shorts: 16,962 273,103 18,665 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.1 27.2 72.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.5 -4.0 5.6   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 123,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,993 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 121,785 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.0 41.1 12.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.0 79.7 4.8 – Net Position: 123,778 -154,006 30,228 – Gross Longs: 135,750 164,226 49,339 – Gross Shorts: 11,972 318,232 19,111 – Long to Short Ratio: 11.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 96.4 2.9 91.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.5 -8.1 16.1   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 49,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,678 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,745 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.2 42.5 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.0 56.0 13.3 – Net Position: 49,067 -40,653 -8,414 – Gross Longs: 106,515 128,739 31,770 – Gross Shorts: 57,448 169,392 40,184 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 21.9 74.5 66.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.3 22.0 16.0   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 45,500 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,694 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,194 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.1 34.8 9.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.2 51.7 12.8 – Net Position: 45,500 -38,745 -6,755 – Gross Longs: 87,387 80,016 22,547 – Gross Shorts: 41,887 118,761 29,302 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.3 47.7 59.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.8 20.0 20.4   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,310 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,160 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.5 34.9 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.4 76.9 3.2 – Net Position: 84,310 -97,775 13,465 – Gross Longs: 99,230 81,510 20,990 – Gross Shorts: 14,920 179,285 7,525 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.4 20.8 97.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.8 2.3 12.7   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 36,634 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,040 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,674 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.6 47.1 6.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.0 65.5 3.9 – Net Position: 36,634 -43,201 6,567 – Gross Longs: 71,790 110,528 15,763 – Gross Shorts: 35,156 153,729 9,196 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.5 43.9 63.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.2 4.7 4.0   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,951 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,392 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,559 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.2 38.2 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.4 42.6 10.6 – Net Position: 19,951 -15,332 -4,619 – Gross Longs: 114,287 131,605 31,901 – Gross Shorts: 94,336 146,937 36,520 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 64.0 25.9 88.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.3 -25.3 11.2   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Metals Speculators cool off their Gold bullish bets to 6-week low

COT Metals Speculators cool off their Gold bullish bets to 6-week low

Invest Macro Invest Macro 09.04.2022 19:02
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Each Commodity Share Percent of All Commodities Open Interest Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent decline in the Gold futures bets. The speculative net position in the Gold futures dropped this week for the third time in the past four weeks and by a total of -28,847 contracts over that time-frame. Gold spec positions had previously been on a strong run of rising weekly bullish bets and had increased for five straight weeks from February 8th to March 8th with a total gain of +102,246 contracts over that period. That speculator sentiment strength brought positions to a sixty-one week high with a net position of +274,388 contracts and coincided with the Gold price surging above the $2,050 level. Since then, bullish bets have cooled off while the Gold price has also taken a breather and fallen back into a trading range between approximately $1,920 and $1,960 where it currently resides. Overall, the metals market that rose this week was just Copper (5,561 contracts) while Gold (-12,055 contracts), Platinum (-2,711 contracts), Palladium (-30 contracts) and Silver (-3,206 contracts) all had lower bets on the week. Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-05-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,823,366 5 308,594 0 -355,435 100 46,841 81 Gold 560,666 36 245,541 66 -278,758 33 33,217 58 Silver 148,526 15 45,034 67 -60,036 40 15,002 30 Copper 216,157 38 36,142 68 -43,039 30 6,897 65 Palladium 6,642 1 -2,041 10 1,443 85 598 78 Platinum 60,983 23 11,290 18 -17,905 83 6,615 54 Natural Gas 1,169,620 19 -136,611 38 92,647 60 43,964 90 Brent 189,394 31 -29,712 61 26,537 37 3,175 52 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 756,785 35 198,924 79 -170,882 26 -28,042 24 Corn 1,556,206 30 487,073 92 -424,154 12 -62,919 7 Coffee 226,730 5 43,811 80 -48,758 22 4,947 23 Sugar 859,871 10 188,547 75 -240,107 23 51,560 72 Wheat 344,615 5 19,951 64 -15,332 26 -4,619 89   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 245,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,055 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 257,596 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.9 22.2 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.1 71.9 3.3 – Net Position: 245,541 -278,758 33,217 – Gross Longs: 324,570 124,506 51,778 – Gross Shorts: 79,029 403,264 18,561 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.8 32.6 58.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.8 -2.8 18.9   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 45,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,206 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,240 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.7 30.9 17.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.4 71.3 7.6 – Net Position: 45,034 -60,036 15,002 – Gross Longs: 64,936 45,922 26,307 – Gross Shorts: 19,902 105,958 11,305 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.3 40.0 30.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.7 -16.0 9.2   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 36,142 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,581 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.0 38.0 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.3 57.9 5.4 – Net Position: 36,142 -43,039 6,897 – Gross Longs: 90,779 82,054 18,675 – Gross Shorts: 54,637 125,093 11,778 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.4 29.9 65.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.6 -5.7 -13.2   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 11,290 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,711 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,001 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 47.3 32.6 16.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.8 62.0 5.6 – Net Position: 11,290 -17,905 6,615 – Gross Longs: 28,827 19,894 10,054 – Gross Shorts: 17,537 37,799 3,439 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 18.0 83.4 54.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.1 7.1 17.7   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -30 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,011 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.7 52.5 20.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 56.4 30.7 11.5 – Net Position: -2,041 1,443 598 – Gross Longs: 1,704 3,484 1,365 – Gross Shorts: 3,745 2,041 767 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 9.9 84.7 78.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.5 1.9 16.6   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Currency Speculators boost Australian Dollar bets to best level in 37-weeks

COT Currency Speculators boost Australian Dollar bets to best level in 37-weeks

Invest Macro Invest Macro 09.04.2022 20:09
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further retreat of bearish bets in the Australian currency futures contracts. Australian dollar speculators reduced their bearish bets for a second straight week this week and for the sixth time in the past seven weeks. Over this seven-week time-frame, Aussie bets have improved by a total of +49,181 contracts, going from -86,694 net positions on February 15th to -37,513 net positions this week. This improvement in speculator sentiment has brought the current net position (-37,513 contracts) to the least bearish level of the past thirty-seven weeks, dating back to July 20th when the net position totaled -35,690 contracts. The speculator level for the Aussie has not registered a bullish or positive net weekly position since May 18th of 2021, a span of forty-seven weeks. Despite the bearish level of speculators, the AUD has been one of the stronger currencies over the past month and has been helped along by the outlook that the Reserve Bank of Australia will start to raise interest rates for the first time since 2010. The currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (911 contracts), Australian dollar (12,093 contracts), Mexican peso (9,157 contracts), Euro (5,996 contracts), Brazil real (2,910 contracts), Canadian dollar (8,458 contracts) and Bitcoin (27 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-1,698 contracts), Swiss franc (-814 contracts), British pound sterling (-1,688 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-702 contracts) and the Russian ruble (-263 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each currency where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-05-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 49,049 65 31,852 81 -35,194 16 3,342 53 EUR 663,589 67 27,370 43 -49,617 62 22,247 11 GBP 238,266 63 -41,758 44 57,779 64 -16,021 22 JPY 242,217 83 -103,829 2 125,224 98 -21,395 10 CHF 40,005 14 -12,393 48 20,743 54 -8,350 39 CAD 157,562 35 6,923 54 -30,414 38 23,491 77 AUD 148,898 44 -37,513 50 22,332 36 15,181 89 NZD 35,788 16 -1,569 69 171 31 1,398 68 MXN 172,712 36 910 28 -5,778 70 4,868 64 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 65,870 61 45,526 95 -47,961 4 2,435 93 Bitcoin 11,374 61 -244 89 -397 0 641 28   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 31,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 911 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,941 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.7 2.9 10.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.7 74.6 3.9 – Net Position: 31,852 -35,194 3,342 – Gross Longs: 41,038 1,417 5,243 – Gross Shorts: 9,186 36,611 1,901 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.5 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.7 16.1 53.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 10.3 -21.2   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 27,370 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,996 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,374 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.8 53.8 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.7 61.3 8.4 – Net Position: 27,370 -49,617 22,247 – Gross Longs: 210,914 357,140 77,946 – Gross Shorts: 183,544 406,757 55,699 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.4 61.7 11.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 13.7 -27.3   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -41,758 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,070 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.1 73.6 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.6 49.4 15.1 – Net Position: -41,758 57,779 -16,021 – Gross Longs: 35,873 175,429 19,923 – Gross Shorts: 77,631 117,650 35,944 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.9 63.9 22.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.9 28.2 -24.4   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -103,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,131 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.0 84.7 7.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.9 33.0 16.8 – Net Position: -103,829 125,224 -21,395 – Gross Longs: 14,583 205,209 19,190 – Gross Shorts: 118,412 79,985 40,585 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.4 98.4 10.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.7 21.2 -4.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -12,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -814 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,579 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.6 73.5 21.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.6 21.6 42.6 – Net Position: -12,393 20,743 -8,350 – Gross Longs: 1,860 29,392 8,694 – Gross Shorts: 14,253 8,649 17,044 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.4 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.3 54.2 38.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 1.8 -0.7   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 6,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,535 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.7 49.4 26.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.3 68.7 11.1 – Net Position: 6,923 -30,414 23,491 – Gross Longs: 37,325 77,906 40,906 – Gross Shorts: 30,402 108,320 17,415 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.4 37.6 76.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.3 -11.7 37.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -37,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,093 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,606 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.4 53.9 21.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.6 38.9 11.5 – Net Position: -37,513 22,332 15,181 – Gross Longs: 34,871 80,207 32,313 – Gross Shorts: 72,384 57,875 17,132 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.1 35.5 89.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 43.2 -55.1 66.3   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -867 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.1 44.3 12.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.5 43.8 8.1 – Net Position: -1,569 171 1,398 – Gross Longs: 15,428 15,863 4,311 – Gross Shorts: 16,997 15,692 2,913 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.6 30.7 67.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.7 -21.2 43.0   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 910 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,157 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,247 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.6 49.6 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.1 53.0 1.6 – Net Position: 910 -5,778 4,868 – Gross Longs: 78,728 85,690 7,698 – Gross Shorts: 77,818 91,468 2,830 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.7 70.4 63.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.8 6.4 2.8   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 45,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,910 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,616 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.7 16.4 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.6 89.2 2.9 – Net Position: 45,526 -47,961 2,435 – Gross Longs: 50,518 10,795 4,319 – Gross Shorts: 4,992 58,756 1,884 – Long to Short Ratio: 10.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.1 4.5 93.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.7 -20.4 -2.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 27 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -271 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.5 3.8 11.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 79.6 7.3 6.0 – Net Position: -244 -397 641 – Gross Longs: 8,811 437 1,322 – Gross Shorts: 9,055 834 681 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.1 9.6 27.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.8 -11.3 2.3   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 29/3/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 29/3/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 11.04.2022 06:40
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 29/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 1,306 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,409 contracts and an increase in short positions by 103 contracts. Growth in total net positions occurred last week in the euro, the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. There were declines in the total net positions of large speculators in the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. In the Japanese yen, in particular, the decline in total net positions of large speculators has been very strong. Over the past five weeks, total net positions have decreased by 38 944 contracts. The total net positions of large speculators are the most bearish for the yen in the last 20 weeks. This may be due to the Bank of Japan's continuing dovish monetary policy to support Japanese economic growth. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.   Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 29, 2022 30941 21374 -40070 -49606 -867 -102131 1535 -11579 Mar 22, 2022 29635 23843 -37244 -51189 2520 -78482 -4940 -8424 Mar 15, 2022 28380 18794 -29061 -44856 3653 -62340 17740 -5229 Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com   The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 29, 2022 662415 200043 178669 21374 3598 -7008 -4539 2469 Weak bullish Mar 22, 2022 658817 207051 183208 23843 -7193 5011 -38 5049 Bullish Mar 15, 2022 666010 202040 183246 18794 -72980 -40643 -593 -40050 Weak bullish Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish         Total Change -39632 -17856 8351 -26207     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 21,374 contracts last week, down by 2,469 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 7,008 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,539 contracts. This data indicates weak bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest has risen by 3 598 contracts in the last week. This shows that the upward movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by a volume and is therefore strong price action. The euro continues to move in a downtrend. Last week it returned to the resistance level from which it bounced downwards. Long-term resistance: 1.1160 – 1.1180 Support: 1.0950-1.0980 and the next support is at 1.080-1.0850.   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 29, 2022 224365 30624 70694 -40070 28653 -2129 697 -2826 Bearish Mar 22, 2022 195712 32753 69997 -37244 7389 311 8494 -8183 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 188323 32442 61503 -29061 -57989 -18540 -2005 -16535 Bearish Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish         Total Change 29063 -19527 22780 -42307     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 37,244 contracts, down by 8,183 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth of long positions by 311 contracts and the growth of short positions by 8,494 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative while there has been a further decline. Open interest rose by 7,389 contracts last week. This means that the modest rise in the pound that occurred last week was supported by the volume and is therefore strong. However, the pound's growth was not significant. In addition, a pin bar formed on the weekly chart which would suggest more of a further weakening in line with sentiment. Long-term resistance: 1.3270 – 1.3300. Support is near 1.3000.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 29, 2022 143007 33960 83566 -49606 15240 10213 8630 1583 Weak bearish Mar 22, 2022 127767 23747 74936 -51189 3246 -534 5799 -6333 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 124521 24281 69137 -44856 -72573 4760 -28579 33339 Weak bearish Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish         Total change -49571 22268 -14820 37088     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 49,606 contracts last week, having grown by 1,583 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth of long positions by 10,213 contracts and the growth of short positions by 8,630 contracts. This data suggests weak bearish sentiment for the Australian dollar as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but they increased last week. There was an increase in open interest of 15,240 contracts last week. This means that the sideways movement that occurred last week was supported by the volume and was therefore strong as new money flowed into the market. The Australian dollar moved near a strong resistance level last week. If it is validly broken then a further bullish movement may be seen.  Long-term resistance: 0.7510-0.7560                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.7370-0.7440.  A next support is near 0.7160 – 0.7180.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 29, 2022 34881 15504 16371 -867 -375 -1652 1735 -3387 Bearish Mar 22, 2022 35256 17156 14636 2520 -3944 -4337 -3204 -1133 Weak bullish Mar 15, 2022 39200 21493 17840 3653 -14050 5718 -10314 16032 Bullish Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Mar 29, 2022 34881 15504 16371 -867 -375 -1652 1735 -3387 Bearish         Total Change -29224 -9419 -17885 8466     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to - 867 contracts, having fallen by 3,387 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,652 contracts and an increase in short positions by 1,735 contracts. This data suggests that there was a bearish sentiment for the New Zealand dollar over the past week as the total net positions of large speculators got negative. Open interest fell by 375 contracts last week.  Therefore, the sideways move in the NZDUSD that occurred last week was not supported by a volume and therefore the move was weak. The NZDUSD strengthened strongly last week and got to the resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.6980 – 0.7000 Long-term support: 0.6860-0.6880 and the next support is at 0.6730 – 0.6740.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
The Swing Overview - Week 13 2022

The Swing Overview - Week 13 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 11.04.2022 06:41
The Swing Overview - Week 13 Equity indices closed the first quarter of 2022 in a loss under the influence of geopolitical tensions. The Czech koruna strengthened as a result of the CNB raising interest rates to 5%, the highest since 2001. The US supports the oil market by releasing 180 million barrels from its strategic reserves. War in Ukraine   The war in Ukraine has been going on for more than a month and there is still no end in sight. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations have not led to a result yet. Meanwhile, Russian President Putin has decided that European countries will pay for Russian gas in rubles. This has been described as blackmailing from Europe's point of view and is not in line with the gas supply contracts that have been concluded. A way around this is to open an account with Gazprombank where the gas can be paid for in euros. Geopolitical tensions are therefore still ongoing and are having a negative effect on stock markets.   Equity indices have had their worst quarter since 2020 US and European equities posted their biggest quarterly loss since the beginning of 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic broke out and the global economy was in crisis. Portfolio rebalancing at the end of the quarter boosted demand for bonds and kept yields lower.   On Tuesday, the yield curve briefly inverted, meaning that short-term bonds yields were higher than  long-term bonds. An inverted yield curve is a signal of a recession according to many economists. It means that future corporate profits should be rather behind expectations and stock prices might reflect it.    On Thursday, the S&P 500 index fell 1.6%. The Dow Jones industrial index also fell by 1.6% and the Nasdaq Composite index fell by 1.5%. The European STOXX 600 index closed down by 0.94%. Even after last week's rally, as investors celebrated signs of progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, the S&P 500 index is still down 5% for the first three months, its worst quarterly performance in two years.  Figure 1: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   The SP 500 index reached the resistance level at 4,600, which it broke, but then closed below it. This indicates a false break. The new nearest resistance is in the range of 4,625 - 4,635. Support is at 4,453 and then significant support is at 4,386 - 4,422.   German DAX index The DAX index has rallied since March 8 and has reached the resistance level which is in the 14,800 - 15,000 range.  However, the index started to weaken in the second half of the week. The news that Russia will demand payments for gas in rubles, which Western countries refuse, contributed to the index's weakening. The fear of gas supply disruption then caused a sell-off.    Figure 2: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart Resistance is between 14,800 - 15,000 according to the daily chart. The nearest support according to the H4 chart is at 14,100 - 14,200.   The euro remains in a downtrend The euro was supported at the beginning of the week by hopes for peace in Ukraine. However, by the end of the week, the Ukrainian President warned that Russia was preparing for more attacks and the Euro started to weaken. News of Russia's demand to pay for gas in rubles had a negative effect on the euro as well. Figure 3: The EURUSD on the H4 and daily charts. From a technical point of view, we can see that the EURUSD according to the daily chart has reached the resistance formed by EMA 50 (yellow line). The new horizontal resistance is in the area of 1.1160 - 1.1180. Support is at 1.0950 - 1.0980. The euro still remains in a downtrend.   CNB raised the interest rate In the fight against the inflation, the CNB decided to further raise the interest rate by 0.50%. Currently, the base rate is at 5%, where it was last in 2001. The interest rate hike is aimed at slowing inflation by slowing demand through higher borrowing costs.   Figure 4: Interest rate developments in the Czech Republic In addition, a strong koruna should support the slowdown in inflation. The koruna could appreciate especially against the euro due to higher interest rates. However, the strengthening of the koruna is conditional on the war in Ukraine not escalating further.  We can see that the koruna against the euro is approaching a support around 24.30. The low of this year was 24.10 korunas for one euro. Figure 5: USD/CZK and EUR/CZK on the daily chart. The koruna is also strengthening against the US dollar. Here, however, the situation is slightly different in that the US Fed is also raising rates and is expected to continue raising rates until the end of the year. Therefore, the interest rate differential between the koruna and the dollar is less favourable than between the koruna and the euro. The appreciation of the koruna against the dollar is therefore slower.   Currently, the koruna is at the support of 22 koruna per dollar. The next support is at 21.70 and then 21.10 koruna per dollar, where this year's low is.   Oil has weakened Oil prices saw the deep losses after the news that the United States will release up to 180 million barrels from its strategic petroleum reserves as part of measures to reduce fuel prices. US crude oil fell 5.4% and Brent crude oil fell 6.6% on Thursday after the news. Figure 6: Brent crude oil on a monthly and daily chart We can see that a strong bearish pinbar was formed on a  monthly chart. The nearest support is in the zone 103 – 106 USD per barel. A strong support is around 100 USD per barel which will be closely watched.  
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 5/4/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 5/4/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 11.04.2022 22:12
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 5/4/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 911 contracts last week. This change is the result of a decrease in long positions by 3,932 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,843 contracts. The growth in total net positions occurred last week in the euro, the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. There were declines in the total net positions of large speculators in the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. Interest rate decisions will be made by the central banks of New Zealand and Canada (Wednesday) and the ECB on Thursday this week. The published monetary policy of these banks will be the decisive driver for the NZD, the CAD and the EUR this week. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Apr 05, 2022 31852 27370 -41758 -37513 -1569 -103829 6923 -12393 Mar 29, 2022 30941 21374 -40070 -49606 -867 -102131 1535 -11579 Mar 22, 2022 29635 23843 -37244 -51189 2520 -78482 -4940 -8424 Mar 15, 2022 28380 18794 -29061 -44856 3653 -62340 17740 -5229 Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com   The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Apr 05, 2022 663589 210914 183544 27370 1174 10871 4875 5996 Bullish Mar 29, 2022 662415 200043 178669 21374 3598 -7008 -4539 2469 Weak bullish Mar 22, 2022 658817 207051 183208 23843 -7193 5011 -38 5049 Bullish Mar 15, 2022 666010 202040 183246 18794 -72980 -40643 -593 -40050 Weak bullish Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish         Total change -33093 -3281 28655 -31936     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1 The total net positions of large speculators reached 27 370 contracts last week and they were up by 5 996 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 10,871 contracts and an increase in short positions by 4,875 contracts. These data indicates a bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest has risen by 1,174 contracts in the last week. This shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by a volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The euro keeps moving in a downtrend. Last week it again reached a strong support in the area around 1.0850. Long-term resistance: 1.0950 – 1.0980.  The next resistance is in the zone 1.1160 – 1.1180. Support: 1.080-1.0850   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Apr 05, 2022 238266 35873 77631 -41758 13901 5249 6937 -1688 Bearish Mar 29, 2022 224365 30624 70694 -40070 28653 -2129 697 -2826 Bearish Mar 22, 2022 195712 32753 69997 -37244 7389 311 8494 -8183 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 188323 32442 61503 -29061 -57989 -18540 -2005 -16535 Bearish Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish         Total change 49823 -6376 29573 -35949     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached 41,758 contracts and thez were down by 1,688 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 5,249 contracts and the growth in short positions by 6,937 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative while there has been their further decline. Open interest rose by 13,901 contracts last week. This means that the downward movement in the pound that occurred last week was supported by a volume and it is therefore strong. Long-term resistance: 1.3050 – 1.3070. The next resistance is in the zone 1.3270 – 1.3300. Support is near 1.3000. The next support is near 1.2900   The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Apr 05, 2022 148898 34871 72384 -37513 5891 911 -11182 12093 Weak bearish Mar 29, 2022 143007 33960 83566 -49606 15240 10213 8630 1583 Weak bearish Mar 22, 2022 127767 23747 74936 -51189 3246 -534 5799 -6333 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 124521 24281 69137 -44856 -72573 4760 -28579 33339 Weak bearish Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish         Total change -43681 23318 -23249 46567     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 37,513 contracts, growing by 12,093 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 911 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 11,182 contracts. This data suggests weak bearish sentiment for the Australian dollar as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but there was an increase in the previous week. There was an increase in open interest of 5,891 contracts last week. This means that the downward movement that occurred last week was supported by a volume and it was therefore a strong price action as new money flowed into the market. The Australian dollar formed a strong bearish pin bar last week. This could indicate further weakening of the AUD/USD pair. However, the pair is in a support area, so to speculate in the short direction it is necessary to wait for the pair to break this support and for a valid retest of the break. Long-term resistance: 0.7580-0.7660                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.7370-0.7440.  A next support is near 0.7160 – 0.7180.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Apr 05, 2022 35788 15428 16997 -1569 907 -76 626 -702 Bearish Mar 29, 2022 34881 15504 16371 -867 -375 -1652 1735 -3387 Bearish Mar 22, 2022 35256 17156 14636 2520 -3944 -4337 -3204 -1133 Weak bullish Mar 15, 2022 39200 21493 17840 3653 -14050 5718 -10314 16032 Bullish Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish         Total change -20848 -1915 -11897 9982     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached to - 1 569 contracts, falling by 702 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 76 contracts and an increase in short positions by 626 contracts. This data suggests that bearish sentiment has set in in the New Zealand dollar over the past week, as the total net positions of large speculators are negative and they continue to fall Open interest rose by 907 contracts last week.  It means that the downward movement in NZDUSD that occurred last week was supported by a volume and therefore this price action was strong. Long-term resistance: 0.6860 – 0.6880. The next resistance is near 0.6980 – 0.7030 Long-term support: 0.6730 – 0.6740.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Estimating Future Stock Returns, December 2021 Update

Estimating Future Stock Returns, December 2021 Update

David Merkel David Merkel 11.03.2022 06:15
Image credit: All images belong to Aleph Blog This should be a brief post. At the end of 2021, the S&P 500 was poised to nominally return -1.53%/year over the next 10 years. As of the close yesterday, that figure was 0.73%/year. The only period compares with this valuation-wise is the dot-com bubble. We are near dot-com level valuations, in the 98th percentile. And if you view the 10-year returns from the worst time of the dot-com bubble to now, you can see that the results they obtained are worse than what I forecast here. Of course, a lot of what will happen in nominal terms will rely on the actions of the Fed. Will the Fed: Allow a real recession to clear away dud assets that are on life support from low rates? (Collapsing the current stock/junk bubble.. they would never do this unless their hands were tied.)Risk the 1994 scenario where the compressed coupon stack in the Residential Mortgage Backed Securities [RMBS] market begins a self-reinforcing interest rate rise cycle on the long end as mortgage rates rise, prepayments drop, mortgage durations extend, leading to bond managers selling RMBS and long bonds with abandon to bring their duration risk down. The Fed chases the yield curve up, and the stock and housing markets both fall. The Fed chokes on their policy, and gives up tightening to save both markets.Or, if not the 1994 scenario, does the Fed dare to stop tightening before the yield curve inverts, and just wait for a flat curve to do its work? (Nah, that would be smart. The Fed always inverts the curve to prove their manliness, and blows some part of the market up in the process.)Or do they just accept financial repression, and punish savers to benefit wage earners (Will it really work? Dubious.), as the Fed keeps their policy rate low. I posed those scenarios to Tom Barkin, President of the Richmond Fed when he came to speak to the CFA Institute at Baltimore last week. He gave answers that were either evasive, or he didn’t get it. Anyway, this is an awkward market situation, but the one thing that is clear to me is that investors should be at the lower end of risk for their asset allocation. PS — As for me, I am living with value stocks, small stocks, and international stocks. Very little in the S&P 500 here.
Welcome Back to 1994!

Welcome Back to 1994!

David Merkel David Merkel 23.03.2022 03:03
Image Credit: Aleph Blog with help from FRED || Believe it or not, I used FRED before it was a web resource — it was a standalone “bulletin board” that I woul dial into on my computer modem I’ve talked about this here: Estimating Future Stock Returns, December 2021 UpdateTime for Another Convexity Crisis?The First Priority of Risk Control (2009, this tells the story of what I did during the 1994 crisis.) And recently I have tweeted about it. Mortgage rates are surging faster than expected, prompting economists to lower their home sales forecasts https://t.co/IiX2gPlAnI 1994 scenario re-occurring. Falling prepayments makes MBS lengthen, leading indexed bond managers to sell low-coupon MBS forcing rates still higher— David Merkel (@AlephBlog) March 22, 2022 We may be in the 1994 scenario where mortgage durations are extending, dragging the long end of the yield, as those that hedge duration are forced to sell, setting up a self-reinforcing move up in yields.— David Merkel (@AlephBlog) March 22, 2022 The MBS coupon stack is a lot flatter in 2022 than in 1994. There is more than 4X the mortgage debt now than in 1994. Lots of pent-up negative convexity. I lived through that in 1994, and made money off it.— David Merkel (@AlephBlog) March 22, 2022 Then from the piece Classic: Avoid the Dangers of Data-Mining, Part 2 “In 1992-1993, there were a number of bright investors who had “picked the lock” of the residential mortgage-backed securities market. Many of them had estimated complex multifactor relationships that allowed them to estimate the likely amount of mortgage prepayment within mortgage pools. Armed with that knowledge, they bought some of the riskiest securities backed by portions of the cash flows from the pools. They probably estimated the past relationships properly, but the models failed when no-cost prepayment became common, and failed again when the Federal Reserve raised rates aggressively in 1994. The failures were astounding: David Askin’s hedge funds, Orange County, the funds at Piper Jaffray that Worth Bruntjen managed, some small life insurers, etc. If that wasn’t enough, there were many major financial institutions that dropped billions on this trade without failing. What’s the lesson? Models that worked well in the past might not work so well in the future, particularly at high degrees of leverage. Small deviations from what made the relationship work in the past can be amplified by leverage into huge disasters.“ Finally from the piece What Brings Maturity to a Market: Negative Convexity: Through late 1993, structurers of residential mortgage securities were very creative, making tranches in mortgage securitizations that bore a disproportionate amount of risk, particularly compared to the yield received. In 1994 to early 1995, that illusion was destroyed as the bond market was dragged to higher yields by the Fed plus mortgage bond managers who tried to limit their interest rate risks individually, leading to a more general crisis. That created the worst bond market since 1926. ================================================== I am not saying it is certain, but I think it is likely that we are experiencing a panic in the mortgage bond market now. Like 1994, we have had a complacent Fed that left policy rates too low for too long. Both were foolish times, where policy should have been tighter. This led to massive refinancing of mortgages, and many new mortgages at low rates. But when that happens with most mortgages being low rate, if the Fed hints at or starts raising rates, prepayments will fall and Mortgage-Backed Securities [MBS] will lengthen duration while falling in price. Bond managers, most of whom are indexed and want a fixed duration, will start selling long bonds and MBS, leading long rates to rise, and the cycle temporarily becomes self-perpetuating. This is likely the situation that we are in now, and it very well may make the Fed overreact as they did in 1994. All good economists know the monetary policy acts with long and variable lags. But the FOMC for PR reasons acts as if their actions are immediate. Thus they become macho, and raise their rates too far, leading to a crash. (Can we eliminate the Fed? Gold was better, if we regulated the banks properly. Or, limit the slope of the yield curve.) I’m planning on making money on the opposite side of this trade if I am right. I will buy long Treasuries after the peak. I am watching this regularly, and will act when it is clear to me, but not the market as a whole, which in late 1994 to early 1995 did not know which end was up. Anyway, that’s all. The only good part of this environment is that my bond portfolios are losing less than the general market.
The Rules, Part LXXII

The Rules, Part LXXII

David Merkel David Merkel 26.03.2022 05:21
Picture Credit: Kailash Gyawali || There are times when despair is rational “There are two hard things in trading — buying higher, and selling lower.” Currently I am selling out my position in an illiquid stock. I am patient, but I can tell that my selling is having an impact on the market. Back when I was a corporate bond manager, I quickly learned that I had to scale in and out of positions. Even for the most commonly traded bonds, the market isn’t that liquid. While not lying to the brokers, learning to disguise your intentions, or at least frame them properly took some effort. One method I commonly used worked like this: “We need some cash. If you have someone wanting to buy $2-5 million, we will offer these at the 10-year Treasury + 150 basis points, $6-10 million T10 + 140 bps, and if they want to buy the whole wad (say 20-30 million), T10 + 125 basis points. Prices would ascend with size in selling. Prices would descend with size in buying, particularly for troubled bonds that we liked. Usually the brokers appreciated the supply or demand curves that I gave them. Frequently I ended up selling the “the wad,” which we were usually selling because our credit analyst had a reason. But life is not always so happy. Sometimes you have an asset that either you or the organization has concluded is a dud. Many people think it is a dud. How do you sell it? Should you sell it? There are options: you could hold an auction, but I will tell you if you do that, play it straight. Your reputation is worth far more than if the auction succeeds or not. You can set a reservation price but if the auction doesn’t sell, you will lose some face. Or you can test the market, selling in onesies an twosies ($1-2 million) seeing if there is any demand, and expand from there if you can. What I tended to do was go to my most trusted broker on a given bond and say, “I don’t have to sell this, but we need cash. Could you sound out those who own the bonds and see what they might like to buy a few million?” If we get an interested party, we can sound them out on buying more a an attractive price. But life can be worse, imagine trying to sell the bonds of Enron post default. Yes, I had to do that. And I had to sell them at lower and lower prices. (Kind of like the time I got trapped with a wad of Disney 30-year bonds.) And there is the opposite. You want to have a position in an attractive company, and you can’t get them at any reasonable price. You could give up. You could “do half.” Or you could chase it and get the full position, only to regret it. If you invest with an eye toward valuations, this will always be a challenge. All that said, if you focus on quality, these issues probably won’t hurt you as much. In any case, do what must be done. If something must be bought, buy it as cheaply as possible. If something must be sold, sell it as dearly as you can. Hide your intentions, while offering deals. In doing so, you may very well realize the most value.
When I was a Boy… (2)

When I was a Boy… (2)

David Merkel David Merkel 05.04.2022 04:51
Photo Credit: House Photography || I always read a lot when I was young This a is follow-up to When I was a Boy… which I wrote ~5 1/2 years ago. It is also a response to an article posted by Jason Zweig, who I have talked with once or twice, and emailed a little more than that. In that article, he asks the question: How did you learn how to invest? Did you take a class, play a stock-market game in school, have a friend or family member as a mentor?How Should Kids Learn to Invest? If you read the original article, you would know that my original start was from two gifts of stock that male relatives in my extended family gave me in the 1960s. They picked two high-fliers — Litton Industries and Magnavox. Bought and held, by the mid-1970s both generated >80% losses when they were bought by another company. Did I ever play the stock market game in school? Yes, once when I was in seventh grade (early 1973). Our school decided to play around and do an intersession between the two semesters. It was a two week course called “Bulls and Bears. How this Little Piggy Went to Market.” My favorite science teacher was teaching it. I realized that the game was utterly short-term and so I put all of my play money into AT&T warrants, knowing that if AT&T stock rose, the warrants would zoom up. Was I a smart kid, or what? What. Well, AT&T when nowhere for those two weeks, and the same for the warrants. They were at the same price at the contest end, thus losing the commissions on both sides, and this was when commissions were high, prior to deregulation. The three main things that taught me about investing were watching Wall Street Week with my Mom, borrowing books on investing at the Brookfield library, and reading the Value Line subscription that she purchased. I probably read 10 books on investing before I was 18. Louis Rukeyser was an affable guide to the markets, including the elves, the guests, etc. (As an aside, Frank A. Cappiello, Jr. was a founding member of the Baltimore Security Analysts Society, and a frequent guest on his show. After all, where is Owings Mills, Maryland?) With Value Line, I began to understand how corporations worked. The one-page descriptions of companies were just big enough to give me a good idea of what was going on, while not over-taxing a kid 12-21 years old. I remember as a student at Johns Hopkins earning 16% on my money market fund in my freshman year.  I was only at Hopkins for three years 1979-1982, but those were tough years, particularly in the Midwest “Rust Belt.”  My father’s business earned little, but my Mom’s investing paid off.  Though not “working” she was making more off the family portfolio than my Dad was earning off his business.  As it was, to help my family then, I paid the last semester of tuition.  (My Mom later paid me back for that.)  I came back home in 1982 with $5 in my pocket.  Then I learned that I overdrew my bank account, costing me $10. Oh, one more thing the clever and distinguished Carl Christ, who signed my Master’s Thesis at Hopkins, taught a class on investing in my junior year. I learned a lot, but the main thing I remember was writing a research report on a firm that made specialty paper — James River. My mother had owned it for a long time, but had sold her stake at an opportune time. When I wrote the report, she did not own it, and the stock had fallen from where she sold it. Dr. Christ had never heard of James River, an was fascinated at what was at that time a midcap firm in a underfollowed industry. I got an “A.” When I showed the report to my Mom, she bought it again, and made money of it. Also, in my senior year, I wrote my thesis on stock splits. As I said there: This brings me to my conclusion: stock splits are a momentum effect, but it is larger when companies are still have a cheap valuation. Perhaps splits have no effect on stock performance — it is all momentum and valuation. To me, that is the most likely conclusion, and my thesis anticipated quantitative money management by 10+ years.On Stock Splits In the summer of 1982, I remember sitting down with Value Line in my family’s living room (quiet place, no TV) and selecting a paper portfolio of 40-50 stocks. I went through all 1700 stocks. I recorded the prices in the Milwaukee Journal, and then went to Grad School at UC-Davis. Over the next year the stocks in my “portfolio” appreciated at double the rate of the market. At that time, I was a TA for a Corporate Financial Management class. I showed it to the professor, and he said, “Oh, you have a beta of two.” I said, “No, this portfolio has stocks that are not as risky as the market. This is alpha, not beta.” Several years later, I participated in the Value Line Investing Contest. I placed in the top 1%, but not good enough to win. When my dissertation committee dissolved, I was forced to abandon my Ph. D. I took three actuarial exams on the fly in early 1986 and passed. I had an informational interview at Pacific Standard Life which sponsored the exams, and they hired me on the spot. (My boss’ secretary told me that the boss said, “No one can pass the first three exams on the first try.” Then a fellow employee told me later, “You didn’t negotiate hard enough. They would have hired you regardless.”) When I worked for Pacific Standard Life, and later AIG, I got investment-related projects, because I was the one actuary that understood investing. During this time, I was managing my own portfolio, sometimes better, sometimes worse. I bought stocks, and mutual funds investing outside the US. I had a CTA in my portfolio. I tried investing in spectrum with the FCC, but that was a bomb. I settled on small cap value investing in the mid-1990s, which was a bad era for small cap value. Still, I managed to keep pace with the S&P 500. In 2000, I had an email exchange with Kenneth Fisher (yes, the big guy of Fisher Investments). This led to he creation of my eight rules. As I wrote on portfolio rule three: Let me give you a little history of how the eight rules came to be. In 2000, I had an e-mail discussion with Kenneth Fisher. I explained to him what I had been doing with small-cap value, and how I had done well with it in the 90s. He told me to forget everything that I’ve learned, especially the CFA syllabus, and look for the things that I can do better than anyone else. We exchanged about five or so e-mails; I appreciate the time he spent on me. So I sat back and thought about what investments had worked best for me in the past. I noticed that when I got the call right on cyclical industries, the results were spectacular. I also noticed that I lost most when investing in companies that didn’t have good balance sheets, no matter how “cheap” they were in terms of valuation. I came to the conclusion that size and value/growth were not the major determinants of my investing success. Instead, industry selection played a large role in what went right and wrong with my investment decisions. So, I decided to formalize that. I would rotate industries with a value bias. But that would have other impacts on how I invested. One of those impacts is rule number three. Over the next ten years, I tore up the pavement, and would have been in the top percentile of mutual fund managers. And so I opened my own shop in 2010, to find for the next eleven years that value investing was overrated. My life is bigger than my little company. I am a happy man. I know Jesus Christ; I have eternal life. Have there been disappointments? Of course. The one main positive I can say about my investing is that I rarely have big losses on any security. This is not due to stop losses; I pay attention to balance sheets and the cyclicality of markets. Even at the age of 61, I am still learning. I am not a boy, obviously, but I am still absorbing new ideas. To all who read me, be life-long learners. I am closer to the end to my life than my beginning, but invest! Take your opportunities to learn and capitalize on them! And remember, Judgement Day is coming. Are you ready? Investments will help you for now, but will be useless in the hereafter.
On Concentrated Positions

On Concentrated Positions

David Merkel David Merkel 13.04.2022 03:29
Photo Credit: John.U || Look at all those eggs in one basket! The owner *is* watching it carefully, right? Jason Zweig recent wrote an article on owning stock in the company that you work for. Then today in his WSJ newsletter he asked the following question: What’s the most concentrated investment position you’ve ever had? (In other words, what single investment made up the greatest proportion of your portfolio?) Did it work out well or poorly? What did you learn from it? I have one article to answer both questions called Life with Wife. It’s a cute article which runs through two times in my life where I had an overly concentrated investment position. The first one was regarding The St. Paul (acquired by The Travelers), where I took my first big bonus, and put it all into shares of The St. Paul. I got derided for doing that by my colleagues in the investment department, but with a AA balance sheet, trading at 55% of tangible book value, and 8x forward earnings, I felt I had a reasonable provision against adverse deviation — a margin of safety. If you read the article, you will see that I almost doubled my money in six months, then sold. At the peak it was half of my net worth, and I had a mortgage then. So should you invest in your own company? Well, are you working for Tesla or Enron? I am being facetious here, as the guys at Enron thought they were working for a cutting-edge company like Tesla. But any analyst worth his salt would have seen that free cash flow at Enron was deeply negative. I have a neighbor who is a Tesla mechanic. As I was mowing my lawn one day, he waved me over. He wanted advice. He hinted to me how much his Tesla shares were worth. He had consulted an investment advisor who had told him to sell the wad, and the advisor would create a growth and income portfolio allowing him to retire (he is in his 60s). But he was conflicted, because Tesla was doing so well. He asked me what I would do if I was in his shoes. (Note: the TSLA shares were likely 95% of his net worth.) I said, “Do half, or sell 10-20% per year over time, until you do sell half.” Doing that frees you from the binary decision that you might regret. After selling half, if the price goes up, you still have more capital gains. If the price goes down, you sold some at a good time. You can be happy with yourself no matter what. I have no idea what my neighbor did. Hopefully he sold some. The second situation in Life with Wife regarded my only significant private equity position, Wright Manufacturing, which makes the best commercial lawn mowers in the world. At that point, my holdings were 15% of my net worth, with no mortgage. The founder was throwing everything into growth, and sacrificing safety. If he hadn’t been my friend, I probably would not have invested with him. As it was, when I sold half, I had recouped my investment. After the Life with Wife article, I bought out several of the founder’s relatives, ending up with 2.2% of the company. I’ve made 5x on my money here, with distributions, and using the very thin “market” for shares. One of the founder’s sons leads the company now, and he is a far better manager than his father. I like this company, and am more likely to buy more than to sell at this point. But at this point, it is only 10% of my net worth. I may offer to buy more, but I am thinking about it. It trades at 6x earnings, with a stronger balance sheet than the founder worked with, and a stronger competitive position. The most recent price is still below where I sold it to the second largest shareholder. Price discovery is tough when there are only 20 shareholders, and new shareholders may only enter at the pleasure of the board of directors. Closing So, over my life, I have reduced the relative amount at risk on my biggest positions. Does that make sense? Of course — I have less time to make up for mistakes as I grow older. The only people who should be taking high risks when they are old are who are ultra-rich. If they fail, they will still have enough for a moderate existence. Be careful with concentrated positions. You need certainty about safety most, earnings second, and growth third. Otherwise you are a gambler, and most gamblers lose.
Soft Commodities Speculators continue to boost their Sugar bullish bets to 20-week high

Soft Commodities Speculators continue to boost their Sugar bullish bets to 20-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 16.04.2022 19:59
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is once again a surge higher in this week’s Sugar futures bets. The speculative net position in the Sugar futures gained for a third consecutive week this week and for the seventh time in the past eight weeks. Sugar bullish bets have increased by a total of +165,301 contracts over that eight-week time-frame, going from 74,563 net contracts on February 15th to a total of 239,864 net contracts through Tuesday. This sentiment boost has now brought the current speculator net position to the most bullish level of the past twenty weeks, dating back to November 30th. Sugar prices have been strong as well and traded this week at their highest standing since back in November. The soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Corn (8,508 contracts), Sugar (51,317 contracts), Coffee (4,118 contracts), Soybean Oil (8,828 contracts), Live Cattle (2,775 contracts), Cocoa (2,525 contracts) and Wheat (3,935 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-629 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,729 contracts), Cotton (-1,090 contracts) and Soybean Meal (-7,520 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-12-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index WTI Crude 1,783,725 0 304,778 0 -350,603 100 45,825 80 Gold 577,639 40 254,287 69 -288,093 30 33,806 60 Silver 158,813 24 45,986 68 -63,690 36 17,704 46 Copper 204,825 30 23,350 59 -29,249 39 5,899 59 Palladium 6,340 0 -2,033 10 1,402 84 631 80 Platinum 63,363 27 6,415 11 -13,233 90 6,818 57 Natural Gas 1,170,828 20 -137,549 37 90,221 59 47,328 99 Brent 190,488 32 -36,318 50 33,933 50 2,385 41 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 752,157 34 198,295 79 -170,694 26 -27,601 24 Corn 1,589,848 36 495,581 93 -443,706 9 -51,875 13 Coffee 214,938 0 47,929 83 -52,716 19 4,787 24 Sugar 916,130 23 239,864 86 -301,628 11 61,764 84 Wheat 338,271 1 23,886 67 -21,258 20 -2,628 99   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 495,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 487,073 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.0 45.4 9.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 73.3 12.7 – Net Position: 495,581 -443,706 -51,875 – Gross Longs: 572,527 721,141 149,665 – Gross Shorts: 76,946 1,164,847 201,540 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 93.3 8.7 13.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.4 -2.3 -10.8   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 239,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 51,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 188,547 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.9 44.5 12.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.8 77.4 5.4 – Net Position: 239,864 -301,628 61,764 – Gross Longs: 292,621 407,382 110,845 – Gross Shorts: 52,757 709,010 49,081 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.9 11.0 84.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 31.9 -37.2 50.7   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 47,929 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,118 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,811 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.4 51.6 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.1 76.1 2.7 – Net Position: 47,929 -52,716 4,787 – Gross Longs: 56,743 110,821 10,640 – Gross Shorts: 8,814 163,537 5,853 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 83.1 18.7 24.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.4 10.8 3.2   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 198,295 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -629 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 198,924 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.9 47.0 7.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.6 69.6 10.8 – Net Position: 198,295 -170,694 -27,601 – Gross Longs: 247,765 353,160 53,388 – Gross Shorts: 49,470 523,854 80,989 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.3 25.7 24.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.1 4.4 3.5   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 98,324 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,828 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,496 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.2 46.9 11.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.2 79.6 5.4 – Net Position: 98,324 -119,136 20,812 – Gross Longs: 113,809 170,924 40,463 – Gross Shorts: 15,485 290,060 19,651 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.9 20.2 91.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.2 -9.5 20.6   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 116,258 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,520 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,778 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 42.9 13.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.5 80.2 5.1 – Net Position: 116,258 -148,220 31,962 – Gross Longs: 130,357 170,806 52,146 – Gross Shorts: 14,099 319,026 20,184 – Long to Short Ratio: 9.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.2 5.9 98.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.7 -5.1 28.2   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 51,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,067 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.9 40.4 10.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.1 54.4 12.9 – Net Position: 51,842 -43,300 -8,542 – Gross Longs: 113,806 124,469 31,249 – Gross Shorts: 61,964 167,769 39,791 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 23.8 72.3 65.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.8 6.5 -1.6   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 40,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,500 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.4 35.0 10.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.7 50.4 12.4 – Net Position: 40,771 -35,705 -5,066 – Gross Longs: 84,112 80,838 23,679 – Gross Shorts: 43,341 116,543 28,745 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.2 51.3 68.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.3 19.7 19.0   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 83,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,090 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,310 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.1 35.4 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.4 79.2 3.2 – Net Position: 83,220 -96,675 13,455 – Gross Longs: 99,542 78,213 20,481 – Gross Shorts: 16,322 174,888 7,026 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.7 21.5 97.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.5 3.6 15.2   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 39,159 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,525 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,634 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.0 44.8 6.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.7 64.2 3.8 – Net Position: 39,159 -46,610 7,451 – Gross Longs: 74,307 107,381 16,611 – Gross Shorts: 35,148 153,991 9,160 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.0 40.6 72.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.4 -10.9 -24.9   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 23,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,935 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,951 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.3 37.1 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.3 43.4 10.4 – Net Position: 23,886 -21,258 -2,628 – Gross Longs: 119,566 125,657 32,500 – Gross Shorts: 95,680 146,915 35,128 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.4 20.1 99.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.9 -21.0 21.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Metals Speculators reduce Platinum bets for 3rd week to 13-week low

Metals Speculators reduce Platinum bets for 3rd week to 13-week low

Invest Macro Invest Macro 16.04.2022 20:02
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent declines in the Platinum futures bets. The speculative net position in Platinum futures has fallen for three consecutive weeks and in four out of the past five weeks. Speculator positions have dropped by a total of -19,418 contracts over those past five weeks and the current speculator standing has now decreased to the lowest level in the past thirteen weeks, dating back to November 11th. Despite a strong environment in general for commodities, Platinum speculator bets are under performing in 2022 with a weekly average of +13,284 contracts compared to weekly contract averages of +25,542 contracts in all of 2020 and +19,324 contracts in all of 2021. Overall, Platinum and Palladium (-2,033 net position this week) have been seeing weakness in their speculative positions as well as their prices compared to the other metals (Gold, Silver and Copper). The metals markets with higher speculator bets this week were Silver (952 contracts), Gold (8,746 contracts) and Palladium (8 contracts) while the metals markets with declining speculator bets this week were Copper (-12,792 contracts) and Platinum (-4,875 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-12-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,783,725 0 304,778 0 -350,603 100 45,825 80 Gold 577,639 40 254,287 69 -288,093 30 33,806 60 Silver 158,813 24 45,986 68 -63,690 36 17,704 46 Copper 204,825 30 23,350 59 -29,249 39 5,899 59 Palladium 6,340 0 -2,033 10 1,402 84 631 80 Platinum 63,363 27 6,415 11 -13,233 90 6,818 57 Natural Gas 1,170,828 20 -137,549 37 90,221 59 47,328 99 Brent 190,488 32 -36,318 50 33,933 50 2,385 41 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 752,157 34 198,295 79 -170,694 26 -27,601 24 Corn 1,589,848 36 495,581 93 -443,706 9 -51,875 13 Coffee 214,938 0 47,929 83 -52,716 19 4,787 24 Sugar 916,130 23 239,864 86 -301,628 11 61,764 84 Wheat 338,271 1 23,886 67 -21,258 20 -2,628 99   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 254,287 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,746 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 245,541 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 58.5 21.7 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.5 71.6 3.7 – Net Position: 254,287 -288,093 33,806 – Gross Longs: 338,164 125,627 55,264 – Gross Shorts: 83,877 413,720 21,458 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.0 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.6 29.7 60.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.1 -0.7 16.0   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 45,986 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,034 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.8 32.2 18.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.8 72.3 7.7 – Net Position: 45,986 -63,690 17,704 – Gross Longs: 66,356 51,139 29,877 – Gross Shorts: 20,370 114,829 12,173 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.2 36.4 46.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.0 -6.4 32.0   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 23,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,142 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.0 39.8 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.6 54.1 5.9 – Net Position: 23,350 -29,249 5,899 – Gross Longs: 81,940 81,559 17,972 – Gross Shorts: 58,590 110,808 12,073 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.2 39.4 59.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.9 0.1 -8.0   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 6,415 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,875 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,290 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.0 34.0 16.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.9 54.9 5.7 – Net Position: 6,415 -13,233 6,818 – Gross Longs: 28,544 21,537 10,461 – Gross Shorts: 22,129 34,770 3,643 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.9 90.1 57.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.3 15.7 -6.8   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,041 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.1 51.6 21.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 58.1 29.5 11.7 – Net Position: -2,033 1,402 631 – Gross Longs: 1,653 3,273 1,374 – Gross Shorts: 3,686 1,871 743 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.0 84.5 80.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.5 5.6 8.7   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Currency Speculators drop their Japanese Yen bets to 183-week low

COT Currency Speculators drop their Japanese Yen bets to 183-week low

Invest Macro Invest Macro 16.04.2022 22:07
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further rise of bearish bets in the Japanese yen currency futures contracts. Yen speculators pushed their bearish bets higher for a fifth straight week this week and for the sixth time in the past seven weeks. Over the past five weeks, yen bets have fallen by a total of -55,971 contracts, going from a total of -55,856 net positions on March 8th to a total of -111,827 net positions this week. Speculator positions have now slid all the way to the lowest standing of the past one hundred and eight-three weeks, dating back to October 9th of 2019. This recent weakness in yen positions and the yen price has taken place while open interest has been increasing which shows an accelerating downtrend as prices have been falling as more traders have been entering the market on the bearish side. The speculator strength index is also showing that the Japanese yen positions are at a bearish extreme position with the strength index at a zero percent level (strength index is the current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme). The fundamental backdrop has been the major driver of yen weakness. The Bank of Japan has continued on with its stimulus program and has not indicated any plans to move interest rates off their near-zero level while other central banks around the world have put the breaks on their stimulus actions and have started hiking their interest rates to try to tame inflationary pressures. The yen this week hit the lowest level in twenty years against the US dollar as the USDJPY currency pair trades above the 126.00 level. The other major currencies have all hit multi-year highs versus the yen as well. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (11,690 contracts), Brazil real (603 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,280 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,235 contracts), Bitcoin (411 contracts), Australian dollar (8,798 contracts) and the Mexican peso (14,050 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-2,215 contracts), Japanese yen (-7,998 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,549 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-11,296 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Currency where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-12-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,836 78 29,637 77 -36,045 15 6,408 87 EUR 678,607 73 39,060 47 -60,750 59 21,690 10 GBP 246,152 68 -53,054 36 70,949 72 -17,895 19 JPY 245,403 86 -111,827 0 131,902 100 -20,075 13 CHF 41,231 16 -13,942 46 22,299 56 -8,357 39 CAD 155,390 34 12,158 59 -33,450 35 21,292 72 AUD 150,939 45 -28,715 58 17,876 32 10,839 79 NZD 37,585 20 -289 71 -429 30 718 60 MXN 175,905 38 14,960 34 -19,553 65 4,593 62 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 67,772 64 46,129 96 -48,954 4 2,825 98 Bitcoin 10,632 56 167 98 -439 0 272 19   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,215 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,852 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.8 2.2 15.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.7 68.0 3.6 – Net Position: 29,637 -36,045 6,408 – Gross Longs: 44,303 1,226 8,402 – Gross Shorts: 14,666 37,271 1,994 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.0 to 1 0.0 to 1 4.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.9 14.7 86.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.9 5.6 19.6   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 39,060 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,370 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 53.0 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.9 62.0 8.5 – Net Position: 39,060 -60,750 21,690 – Gross Longs: 221,645 359,853 79,165 – Gross Shorts: 182,585 420,603 57,475 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.0 58.6 10.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.9 9.7 -14.0   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -53,054 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,296 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,758 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.4 75.7 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 36.0 46.9 15.3 – Net Position: -53,054 70,949 -17,895 – Gross Longs: 35,514 186,343 19,803 – Gross Shorts: 88,568 115,394 37,698 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.8 71.6 18.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -38.0 33.6 -8.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -111,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,829 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.0 86.7 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.6 33.0 16.3 – Net Position: -111,827 131,902 -20,075 – Gross Longs: 9,925 212,850 20,022 – Gross Shorts: 121,752 80,948 40,097 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 12.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.5 25.5 -18.8   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,942 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,549 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,393 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.0 74.7 21.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.8 20.6 41.5 – Net Position: -13,942 22,299 -8,357 – Gross Longs: 1,642 30,798 8,742 – Gross Shorts: 15,584 8,499 17,099 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.6 55.9 38.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.3 1.6 -8.0   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,158 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,235 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,923 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.3 49.5 25.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.5 71.0 11.3 – Net Position: 12,158 -33,450 21,292 – Gross Longs: 37,724 76,922 38,796 – Gross Shorts: 25,566 110,372 17,504 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.8 35.4 72.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.0 -8.6 27.6   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -28,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,513 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.3 53.9 19.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.4 42.1 12.1 – Net Position: -28,715 17,876 10,839 – Gross Longs: 39,770 81,396 29,106 – Gross Shorts: 68,485 63,520 18,267 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.2 32.2 78.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 46.0 -52.2 49.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,569 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.4 45.9 10.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.1 47.0 8.1 – Net Position: -289 -429 718 – Gross Longs: 16,295 17,233 3,773 – Gross Shorts: 16,584 17,662 3,055 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.8 29.7 60.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 23.3 -25.5 30.2   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,960 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 910 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.4 48.8 4.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.9 59.9 1.7 – Net Position: 14,960 -19,553 4,593 – Gross Longs: 81,582 85,784 7,517 – Gross Shorts: 66,622 105,337 2,924 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.7 64.6 62.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.7 10.9 4.9   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 46,129 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,526 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.6 15.6 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.6 87.9 2.5 – Net Position: 46,129 -48,954 2,825 – Gross Longs: 52,624 10,591 4,496 – Gross Shorts: 6,495 59,545 1,671 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.7 3.5 97.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.2 3.3 10.9   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 411 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -244 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.2 3.6 10.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.6 7.7 7.4 – Net Position: 167 -439 272 – Gross Longs: 8,207 382 1,058 – Gross Shorts: 8,040 821 786 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 97.9 6.3 19.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.9 6.3 -3.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Soft Commodities Speculators raising bullish bets for Soybean Oil as prices hit record high

COT Soft Commodities Speculators raising bullish bets for Soybean Oil as prices hit record high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 23.04.2022 19:33
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the recent rises in Soybean Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the Soybean Oil futures has gained for three straight weeks and has increased in eight out of the past ten weeks. Soybean Oil speculator positions have added a total of +39,176 contracts over the past ten weeks as well. This ascent in bullish bets has brought the current overall position to over +100,000 net contracts and to the highest level of the past fifty-six weeks, dating back to March 23rd of 2021. Soybean Oil prices raced to a record high level at over $80 per pound this week and surpassed the previous price peaks of 2008 and 2021. The Soybean Oil prices have had a strong fundamental component driving it higher. The war in Ukraine has created a major disruption in Sunflower Oils (Ukraine and Russia are major suppliers) that has pushed the prices in alternative oils and other soft commodities sharply higher. Reuters news service also cited an Indonesia ban on exports of Palm Oil as having caused an even greater demand for alternative vegetable oils. The dreary outlook for vegetable oil production could mean we see even higher Soybean Oil prices. Overall, the soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Corn (5,031 contracts), Soybeans (1,803 contracts), Soybean Oil (6,887 contracts), Soybean Meal (6,498 contracts), Live Cattle (2,683 contracts), Lean Hogs (2,231 contracts) and Cotton (1,900 contracts). The soft commodities that saw lower bets this week were Sugar (-349 contracts), Coffee (-6,126 contracts), Cocoa (-2,802 contracts) and Wheat (-641 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-19-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,740,300 0 307,697 1 -351,252 100 43,555 76 Gold 575,202 40 239,757 60 -275,525 37 35,768 66 Silver 170,577 35 46,429 69 -63,288 37 16,859 41 Copper 203,896 29 18,840 56 -28,307 40 9,467 80 Palladium 6,435 0 -2,182 9 1,560 85 622 80 Platinum 61,603 24 7,537 13 -13,812 89 6,275 50 Natural Gas 1,144,047 14 -130,006 40 82,113 57 47,893 100 Brent 191,883 33 -40,102 44 37,663 56 2,439 42 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 762,855 36 200,098 80 -174,873 25 -25,225 28 Corn 1,625,198 42 500,612 94 -456,269 7 -44,343 18 Coffee 209,410 0 41,803 79 -45,447 24 3,644 15 Sugar 909,622 21 239,515 86 -295,470 12 55,955 77 Wheat 337,038 1 23,245 67 -20,425 21 -2,820 98   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 500,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,031 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 495,581 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.1 45.0 9.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.3 73.1 12.1 – Net Position: 500,612 -456,269 -44,343 – Gross Longs: 586,638 731,004 152,407 – Gross Shorts: 86,026 1,187,273 196,750 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.0 6.9 17.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.3 0.1 -1.7   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 239,515 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 239,864 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.6 44.2 11.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.3 76.7 5.5 – Net Position: 239,515 -295,470 55,955 – Gross Longs: 296,437 402,400 105,565 – Gross Shorts: 56,922 697,870 49,610 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.8 12.1 77.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.2 -19.8 20.0   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 41,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,929 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.5 53.8 4.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.5 75.5 2.9 – Net Position: 41,803 -45,447 3,644 – Gross Longs: 53,423 112,616 9,760 – Gross Shorts: 11,620 158,063 6,116 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 78.5 24.5 15.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.6 8.4 -2.5   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 200,098 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 198,295 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 46.0 7.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.6 69.0 10.5 – Net Position: 200,098 -174,873 -25,225 – Gross Longs: 250,566 351,286 55,231 – Gross Shorts: 50,468 526,159 80,456 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.8 24.7 28.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.1 3.4 3.6   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 105,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 98,324 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.5 44.2 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 76.5 4.9 – Net Position: 105,211 -127,399 22,188 – Gross Longs: 124,302 174,162 41,383 – Gross Shorts: 19,091 301,561 19,195 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.6 16.1 96.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.3 -9.5 20.0   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 122,756 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,258 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.5 42.4 13.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.1 80.7 5.2 – Net Position: 122,756 -154,801 32,045 – Gross Longs: 135,397 171,107 52,874 – Gross Shorts: 12,641 325,908 20,829 – Long to Short Ratio: 10.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.8 2.4 99.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.6 -2.2 13.0   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 54,525 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,842 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.6 39.8 10.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.8 54.8 12.9 – Net Position: 54,525 -45,886 -8,639 – Gross Longs: 115,285 122,065 30,955 – Gross Shorts: 60,760 167,951 39,594 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.5 67.0 56.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.6 -12.0 -5.7   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 43,002 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,231 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,771 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.4 34.4 10.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.6 51.1 12.7 – Net Position: 43,002 -38,275 -4,727 – Gross Longs: 83,133 78,601 24,424 – Gross Shorts: 40,131 116,876 29,151 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.6 48.2 69.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 6.1 16.7   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 85,120 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,900 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,220 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.6 35.0 9.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.0 81.8 3.1 – Net Position: 85,120 -98,107 12,987 – Gross Longs: 97,613 73,296 19,582 – Gross Shorts: 12,493 171,403 6,595 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.8 to 1 0.4 to 1 3.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.9 20.6 94.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.1 -1.0 20.9   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 36,357 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,802 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,159 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.5 45.6 6.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.4 63.5 3.5 – Net Position: 36,357 -43,099 6,742 – Gross Longs: 75,822 109,538 15,230 – Gross Shorts: 39,465 152,637 8,488 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.3 44.0 65.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.5 -2.9 -34.9   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 23,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,886 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.0 37.6 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 43.7 10.4 – Net Position: 23,245 -20,425 -2,820 – Gross Longs: 121,339 126,766 32,116 – Gross Shorts: 98,094 147,191 34,936 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 66.8 21.0 98.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.0 -14.5 22.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Metals Speculators reduce their Gold bullish bets but positions remain strong

COT Metals Speculators reduce their Gold bullish bets but positions remain strong

Invest Macro Invest Macro 23.04.2022 20:45
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent decline in the Gold futures bets. The speculative net position in the Gold futures has fallen for two out of the past three weeks and in four out of the past six weeks. Previously, Gold speculator positions had added bullish bets for five consecutive weeks from February 8th through March 8th and brought the speculator bullish standing to the highest level in sixty-one weeks at +274,388 contracts. The recent reduction in speculator bets and the slight cool off in the Gold price do not necessarily mean that sentiment for the shiny metal is turning. In fact, the Gold position may have greater heights in store as open interest levels have not recently touched any significant peak high (typically a surge of opinions and counter-opinions that can stop a trend especially at key levels) and the speculator strength level has not reached (or gotten close to) a bullish-extreme level (both of these levels can be signs of a top and exhaustion in trends). The net position for Gold, even after the recent weakness, remains above the 2022 weekly average of +230,004 contracts (the weekly average of all of 2021 was +204,623 contracts). So despite a rising interest rate environment (which may hurt or may help Gold), the combination of super-hot inflationary pressures, a war-time crisis and strong sentiment could help make Gold primed to stay on its bullish path. Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were Silver (443 contracts) and Platinum (1,122 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were Gold (-14,530 contracts), Copper (-4,510 contracts) and Palladium (-149 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-19-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,740,300 0 307,697 1 -351,252 100 43,555 76 Gold 575,202 40 239,757 60 -275,525 37 35,768 66 Silver 170,577 35 46,429 69 -63,288 37 16,859 41 Copper 203,896 29 18,840 56 -28,307 40 9,467 80 Palladium 6,435 0 -2,182 9 1,560 85 622 80 Platinum 61,603 24 7,537 13 -13,812 89 6,275 50 Natural Gas 1,144,047 14 -130,006 40 82,113 57 47,893 100 Brent 191,883 33 -40,102 44 37,663 56 2,439 42 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 762,855 36 200,098 80 -174,873 25 -25,225 28 Corn 1,625,198 42 500,612 94 -456,269 7 -44,343 18 Coffee 209,410 0 41,803 79 -45,447 24 3,644 15 Sugar 909,622 21 239,515 86 -295,470 12 55,955 77 Wheat 337,038 1 23,245 67 -20,425 21 -2,820 98   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 239,757 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,530 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 254,287 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.5 22.5 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.8 70.4 3.3 – Net Position: 239,757 -275,525 35,768 – Gross Longs: 330,745 129,157 55,032 – Gross Shorts: 90,988 404,682 19,264 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.6 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.4 37.0 65.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.0 10.6 9.1   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 46,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 443 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,986 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.5 32.1 16.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.3 69.2 6.8 – Net Position: 46,429 -63,288 16,859 – Gross Longs: 69,088 54,719 28,471 – Gross Shorts: 22,659 118,007 11,612 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.6 36.8 41.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.9 6.2 -2.6   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 18,840 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,510 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,350 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.8 39.4 10.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.6 53.3 5.4 – Net Position: 18,840 -28,307 9,467 – Gross Longs: 83,261 80,280 20,538 – Gross Shorts: 64,421 108,587 11,071 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.9 40.0 80.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 8.1 7.0   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 7,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,415 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.9 35.1 15.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.7 57.5 4.8 – Net Position: 7,537 -13,812 6,275 – Gross Longs: 28,293 21,617 9,250 – Gross Shorts: 20,756 35,429 2,975 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 3.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.5 89.3 49.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.6 26.6 -3.5   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,182 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -149 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,033 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.9 55.5 21.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 56.8 31.3 11.3 – Net Position: -2,182 1,560 622 – Gross Longs: 1,475 3,573 1,349 – Gross Shorts: 3,657 2,013 727 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 9.1 85.4 79.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.9 12.1 -12.3   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Currency Speculators raise their bullish bets for Canadian Dollar to 40-week high

Currency Speculators raise their bullish bets for Canadian Dollar to 40-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 23.04.2022 20:49
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the rising of bullish bets in the Canadian ‘Loonie’ dollar currency futures contracts. CAD speculators raised their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks. Over the past four-week time-frame, CAD bets have improved by a total of +26,166 contracts, going from -4,940 net positions on March 22nd to +21,226 net positions this week. These gains have brought this week’s speculator level to the most bullish position since July 13th of 2021, a span of forty weeks. This recent improvement in Loonie sentiment has been helped out by the hike in interest rates by the Bank of Canada (BOC). The BOC recently pushed its key interest rate higher by 50 basis points on April 13th and has in the past few days hinted that more interest rate rises were to come. The recent inflation numbers out of Canada were above expectations (6.7 percent) and according to Bloomberg, market participants have pushed their odds to 100 percent for another 50 basis point hike in June. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (2,943 contracts), Japanese yen (4,640 contracts), Swiss franc (2,492 contracts), New Zealand dollar (654 contracts), Canadian dollar (9,068 contracts)and the Mexican peso (6,704 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Euro (-7,759 contracts), Brazil real (-1,557 contracts), Australian dollar (-122 contracts), Bitcoin (-361 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-5,860 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-19-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,524 77 32,580 82 -35,893 15 3,313 53 EUR 675,939 72 31,301 45 -49,726 62 18,425 5 GBP 249,529 70 -58,914 32 72,889 73 -13,975 27 JPY 251,291 90 -107,187 3 129,842 99 -22,655 7 CHF 44,269 20 -11,450 50 23,051 57 -11,601 29 CAD 153,302 32 21,226 68 -39,338 31 18,112 66 AUD 147,309 43 -28,837 58 20,800 34 8,037 72 NZD 41,098 26 365 72 503 31 -868 42 MXN 165,403 33 21,664 37 -26,214 62 4,550 62 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 70,553 68 44,572 94 -47,063 5 2,491 94 Bitcoin 11,276 61 -194 90 -175 0 369 21   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 32,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,637 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.6 3.3 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.9 69.1 3.5 – Net Position: 32,580 -35,893 3,313 – Gross Longs: 46,685 1,778 5,198 – Gross Shorts: 14,105 37,671 1,885 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 82.0 15.0 52.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 3.3 -5.8   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,060 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 53.7 11.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.1 61.0 8.7 – Net Position: 31,301 -49,726 18,425 – Gross Longs: 221,003 362,930 76,939 – Gross Shorts: 189,702 412,656 58,514 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.6 61.9 4.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.5 9.7 -10.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -58,914 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,860 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,054 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.8 74.6 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.4 45.4 14.4 – Net Position: -58,914 72,889 -13,975 – Gross Longs: 36,811 186,134 21,987 – Gross Shorts: 95,725 113,245 35,962 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.6 72.8 26.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -33.4 28.1 -2.2   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -107,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,640 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -111,827 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.1 86.0 8.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.7 34.3 17.3 – Net Position: -107,187 129,842 -22,655 – Gross Longs: 12,723 216,101 20,761 – Gross Shorts: 119,910 86,259 43,416 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.9 99.0 7.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -31.6 25.9 -3.8   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,450 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,492 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,942 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.6 71.7 21.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.4 19.6 47.9 – Net Position: -11,450 23,051 -11,601 – Gross Longs: 2,900 31,735 9,599 – Gross Shorts: 14,350 8,684 21,200 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.0 56.8 29.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.0 1.3 1.8   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,226 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,158 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.7 45.0 24.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.9 70.7 12.8 – Net Position: 21,226 -39,338 18,112 – Gross Longs: 44,063 68,989 37,784 – Gross Shorts: 22,837 108,327 19,672 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.7 31.1 65.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.4 -17.2 20.4   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -28,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,715 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.6 53.8 19.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.2 39.6 13.7 – Net Position: -28,837 20,800 8,037 – Gross Longs: 39,201 79,208 28,257 – Gross Shorts: 68,038 58,408 20,220 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.1 34.4 72.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 45.8 -42.8 19.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 365 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 654 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -289 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.4 45.9 6.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.5 44.6 8.9 – Net Position: 365 503 -868 – Gross Longs: 19,081 18,853 2,797 – Gross Shorts: 18,716 18,350 3,665 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.9 31.2 41.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.4 -20.2 4.0   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,960 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.6 50.0 4.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.5 65.8 1.9 – Net Position: 21,664 -26,214 4,550 – Gross Longs: 73,710 82,643 7,701 – Gross Shorts: 52,046 108,857 3,151 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.6 61.9 62.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.4 12.1 10.1   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 44,572 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,129 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.2 17.6 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.1 84.3 2.5 – Net Position: 44,572 -47,063 2,491 – Gross Longs: 53,790 12,399 4,272 – Gross Shorts: 9,218 59,462 1,781 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.8 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.2 5.4 94.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.8 5.4 5.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -194 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -361 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 167 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 73.3 3.6 10.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.0 5.2 7.0 – Net Position: -194 -175 369 – Gross Longs: 8,263 408 1,155 – Gross Shorts: 8,457 583 786 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.2 27.4 21.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 19.8 4.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
The Scale Versus the Casino

The Scale Versus the Casino

David Merkel David Merkel 28.04.2022 07:55
Photo Credits: Jen and www.david baxendale.com with help from pinetools || The casino is exciting. The scale is honest and unrelenting. I want to give an update to one of the major concepts of Ben Graham, in order to make it fit the modern era better. Ben Graham said: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/831517-in-the-short-run-the-market-is-a-voting-machine quoted from The Intelligent Investor So let me modify it: In the short run, the market is a casino, but in the long run, it is a scale. Is this an improvement? Probably not, but speculation has become so rampant that it may be a necessary modification to change voting machine to casino. The voting machine makes sense, but typically we think of voting as being democratic. We only get one vote per person. Markets are different. Someone who brings a little money to the market will not have the same influence as the one who brings a lot of money to the market. Thus my analogy of the casino, though typically casinos will place limits on how much the casino will wager. They want to avoid random large losses so that they can live to extract money from rubes for many years to come. The winner can brag that he “broke the bank,” but the casino survived to play on. Bill Hwang and his CFO were formally charged with fraud today. What did they do? They synthetically borrowed a lot of money from investment banks to own huge amounts of a few companies. Their buying pushed the prices of the stocks higher, allowing them to borrow more against the positions. But eventually as the stocks they owned had some bad results, the margin calls on his positions wiped him out as the stock prices fell. The scale trumped the casino. The same is true of crypto and meme stocks. Cryptocurrencies require a continuing inflow of real cash (admittedly fiat money) in order to appreciate. If people stop buying crypto on net, and that may be happening now, cryptocurrencies will decline. The scale says crypto is a zero — no intrinsic value. The casino begs for more people to bring real money to buy fake money. That applies to meme stocks as well. You can throw a lot of money at a stock and it will rise. But for it to stay there or rise further, it will need increasing free cash flows to validate the value of the firm. Going back to crypto, it lacks any link to the real economy. Crypto will only become legitimate when you can buy groceries and gasoline at a fixed amount of bitcoin that varies less than the same price in US dollars. As a final note on the Scale versus the Casino, I give you Elon Musk. He borrows against his shares of Tesla to buy Twitter. He either did not realize or ignored the fact that he could lose his stake in Tesla if the price of Tesla falls enough. Do you really want the margin desk to control your fate? This may not totally impoverish Musk, but it is not impossible that he could the entirety of his holdings of Tesla in order to keep his holdings of the unprofitable Twitter. All it would take is for short sellers to push Tesla below $740, and then the margin desk starts selling his shares into a falling market. Momentum, aided by an agreement leading to forced selling. The market abhors a vacuum. So it is for those who assume that things will continue to go right for them.
The Swing Overview – Week 17 2022

The Swing Overview – Week 17 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 03.05.2022 11:04
The Swing Overview – Week 17 Major stock indices continued in their correction and tested strong support levels. In contrast, the US dollar strengthened strongly and is at its highest level since January 2017. The strengthening of the dollar had a negative impact on the value of the euro and commodities such as gold, which fell below the $1,900 per ounce. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates low and the yen broke the magic level 130 per dollar. The USD index strengthened again but the US GDP declined The US consumer confidence in the month of April came in at 107.3, a slight decline from the previous month when consumer confidence was 107.6.   The US GDP data was surprising. The US economy decreased by 1.4% in 1Q 2022 (in the previous quarter the economy grew by 6.4%). This sharp decline surprised even analysts who expected the economy to grow by 1.1%. This result is influenced by the Omicron, which caused the economy to shut down for a longer period than expected earlier this year.    The Fed meeting scheduled for the next week on May 4 will be hot. In fact, even the most dovish Fed officials are already leaning towards a 0.5% rate hike. At the end of the year, we can expect a rate around 2.5%.   The US 10-year bond yields continue to strengthen on the back of these expectations. The US dollar is also strengthening and is already at its highest level since January 2017, surpassing 103 level.  Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and the USD index on the daily chart   Earnings season is underway in equities Earnings season is in full swing. Amazon's results were disappointing. While revenue was up 7% reaching $116.4 billion in the first quarter (revenue was $108.5 billion in the same period last year), the company posted an total loss of $8.1 billion, which translated to a loss of $7.56 per share. This loss, however, is not due to operating activities, but it is the result of the revaluation of the equity investment in Rivian Automotive.   Facebook, on the other hand, surprised in a positive way posting unexpectedly strong user growth, a sign that its Instagram app is capable of competing with Tik Tok. However, the revenue growth of 6.6% was the lowest in the company's history.    Apple was also a positive surprise, reporting earnings per share of $1.52 (analysts' forecast was $1.43) and revenue growth of $97.3 billion, up 8.6% from the same period last year. However, the company warned that the closed operations in Russia, the lockdown in China due to the coronavirus and supply disruptions will negatively impact earnings in the next quarter.   Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart In terms of technical analysis, the US SP 500 index is in a downtrend and has reached a major support level on the daily chart last week, which is at 4,150. It has bounced upwards from this support to the resistance according to the 4 H chart which is 4,308 - 4,313. The next resistance according to the H4 chart is 4,360 - 4,365.  The strong resistance is at 4,500.   German DAX index German businessmen are optimistic about the development of the German economy in the next 6 months, as indicated by the Ifo Business Climate Index, which reached 91.8 for April (the expectation was 89.1). However, this did not have a significant effect on the movement of the index and it continued in its downward correction. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The index is below the SMA 100 on both the daily chart and the H4 chart, confirming the bearish sentiment. The nearest support according to the H4 is 13,600 - 13,650. The resistance is 14,180 - 14,200. The next resistance is 14,592 - 14,632.   The euro has fallen below 1.05 The euro lost significantly last week. While the French election brought relief to the markets as Emmanuel Macron defended the presidency, geopolitical tensions in Ukraine continue to weigh heavily on the European currency. The strong dollar is also having an impact on the EUR/USD pair, pushing the pair down. The price has fallen below 1.05, the lowest level since January 2017.    Figure 4: EURUSD on H4 and daily chart The euro broke through the important support at 1.0650 - 1.071, which has now become the new resistance. The new support was formed in January 2017 and is around the level 1.0350 - 1.040.   Japan's central bank continues to support the fragile economy The Bank of Japan on Thursday reinforced its commitment to keep interest rates at very low levels by pledging to buy unlimited amounts of 10-year government bonds daily, sparking a fresh sell-off in the yen and reviving government bonds. With this commitment, the BOJ is trying to support a fragile economy, even as a surge in commodity prices is pushing the inflation up.   The decision puts Japan in the opposite position to other major economies, which are moving towards tighter monetary policy to combat soaring prices. Figure 5: The USD/JPY on the monthly and daily chart In fresh quarterly forecasts, the central bank has projected core consumer inflation to reach 1.9% in the current fiscal year and then ease to 1.1% in fiscal years 2023 and 2024, an indication that it views the current cost-push price increases as transitory.   In the wake of this decision, the Japanese yen has continued to weaken and has already surpassed the magical level 130 per dollar.   Strong dollar beats also gold Anticipation of aggressive Fed action against inflation, which is supporting the US dollar, is having a negative impact on gold. The rising US government bond yields are also a problem for the yellow metal. This has put gold under pressure, which peaked on Thursday when the price reached USD 1,872 per ounce of gold. But then the gold started to strengthen. Indeed, the decline in the US GDP may have been something of a warning to the Fed and prevent them from tightening the economy too quickly, which helped gold, in the short term, bounce off a strong support. Figure 6: The gold on H4 and daily chart Strong support for the gold is at $1,869 - $1,878 per ounce. There is a confluence of horizontal resistance and the SMA 100 moving average on the daily chart. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is 1 907 - 1 910 USD per ounce. The strong resistance according to the daily chart is then 1 977 - 2 000 USD per ounce of gold. Moving averages on the H4 chart can also be used as a resistance. The orange line is the EMA 50 and the blue line is the SMA 100.  
Copper Speculator bets fall to 2-year low as China lockdowns dent demand

Copper Speculator bets fall to 2-year low as China lockdowns dent demand

Invest Macro Invest Macro 07.05.2022 11:55
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 3rd 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent decline in the Copper futures bets. The speculative net position in the Copper futures has fallen for two consecutive weeks and by a total of -19,408 contracts over that time-frame. This weakness has dropped the current standing for Copper net positions into a bearish position for a second straight week. Last week was the first time Copper has been in a bearish position since June 2nd of 2020, a span of ninety-nine weeks. This week’s further decline in speculator bets brings the current net standing (-15,623 contracts) to the lowest level in two years, dating back to May 5th of 2020. Weighing heavily on the Copper sentiment is the shut downs in China due to Covid-19 outbreaks, particularly in Shanghai and Beijing. China is among the largest producers of Copper in the world and is the largest consumer of Copper in the world with the red metal being used in numerous manufacturing processes, industries and electronics being produced in the country. Any prolonged slowdown in China economic activity will have an outsized effect on the current demand for Copper. The Copper price has pulled back recently with declines in each of the last four weeks that has taken approximately 10 percent off the futures price. Copper has been on a torrid bullish run that started in March 2020 when the pandemic burst open globally. Since the lows in March of 2020, Copper’s price rose by over 100 percent and now currently trades around the $4.25 per pound futures level. The only metals market we cover with higher speculator bets this week was Platinum (+816 contracts) while the markets with lower spec bets were Silver (-7,338 contracts), Gold (-18,856 contracts), Copper (-11,838 contracts) and Palladium (-245 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-03-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,751,564 2 321,701 6 -366,213 94 44,512 78 Gold 560,441 31 199,168 42 -231,852 55 32,684 57 Silver 137,692 5 28,068 50 -39,317 60 11,249 8 Copper 185,255 16 -15,623 31 10,080 66 5,543 57 Palladium 7,638 6 -2,752 6 2,455 90 297 61 Platinum 66,545 33 -1,541 1 -3,667 100 5,208 35 Natural Gas 1,138,319 12 -117,706 43 72,861 54 44,845 92 Brent 168,128 14 -27,318 65 26,014 37 1,304 27 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 700,856 22 190,402 77 -165,353 27 -25,049 29 Corn 1,513,880 23 501,865 94 -451,210 8 -50,655 14 Coffee 206,337 1 40,697 77 -43,007 28 2,310 5 Sugar 818,627 1 201,592 78 -236,394 23 34,802 51 Wheat 319,233 0 20,012 60 -14,225 30 -5,787 82   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 199,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,856 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 218,024 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 52.4 23.3 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.8 64.7 3.3 – Net Position: 199,168 -231,852 32,684 – Gross Longs: 293,439 130,795 51,270 – Gross Shorts: 94,271 362,647 18,586 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.1 55.4 57.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.3 17.9 -2.5   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 28,068 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,406 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.2 36.4 17.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.8 65.0 9.2 – Net Position: 28,068 -39,317 11,249 – Gross Longs: 56,764 50,184 23,860 – Gross Shorts: 28,696 89,501 12,611 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.3 60.3 8.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.8 24.8 -31.2   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -15,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,838 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,785 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.4 46.7 9.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 43.8 41.2 6.7 – Net Position: -15,623 10,080 5,543 – Gross Longs: 65,590 86,458 18,009 – Gross Shorts: 81,213 76,378 12,466 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.1 66.4 57.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.6 30.7 -13.0   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 816 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,357 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.4 38.8 13.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.7 44.3 5.6 – Net Position: -1,541 -3,667 5,208 – Gross Longs: 29,516 25,830 8,956 – Gross Shorts: 31,057 29,497 3,748 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.2 100.0 34.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.5 32.3 -28.3   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,507 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.7 59.8 16.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.8 27.7 13.0 – Net Position: -2,752 2,455 297 – Gross Longs: 973 4,567 1,290 – Gross Shorts: 3,725 2,112 993 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.2 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.8 90.5 61.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.8 12.7 -38.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Currency Speculators drop Euro bets into bearish territory on interest rates & low growth

Currency Speculators drop Euro bets into bearish territory on interest rates & low growth

Invest Macro Invest Macro 07.05.2022 14:13
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 3rd 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the continued drop in speculator bets for European common currency futures contracts. Euro speculators reduced their bets for the third straight week this week and have now trimmed the net position by a total of -45,438 contracts over this three-week period. This decreasing sentiment among speculators accelerated this week with a large drop of -28,579 contracts and knocked the net contract level back into a bearish position for the first time since the beginning of October 2021. The fundamental backdrop for the euro is one of weak growth and low interest rates compared to many of the other major currency countries. The Eurozone GDP for the first quarter of 2022 amounted to just 0.2 percent growth following a fourth quarter of 2021 growth reading of 0.3 percent. The war in Ukraine combined with surging inflation and weakening consumer demand has some banks believing a GDP contraction could be on the horizon while others see parity in the euro versus the US dollar as inevitable. Eurozone interest rates are forecasted to rise this year but they have been behind their major currency counterparts. The US, Canada, UK, Australia and New Zealand have all raised their benchmark interest rates over the past quarter and look likely to see more over the year, possibly widening the interest rate differential even more if the European Central Bank does not act. This week was a very rare week when all the currencies we cover had lower speculator bets including the Euro (-28,579 contracts), Canadian dollar (-11,852 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-6,676 contracts), Mexican peso (-5,503 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,259 contracts), Brazil real (-5,096 contracts), British pound sterling (-4,192 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,038 contracts), US Dollar Index (-808 contracts), Australian dollar (-865 contracts) and Bitcoin (-24 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-03-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,092 76 33,071 83 -35,684 15 2,613 45 EUR 694,926 80 -6,378 33 -24,586 69 30,964 26 GBP 268,496 82 -73,813 21 89,026 82 -15,213 24 JPY 254,813 92 -100,794 7 120,264 94 -19,470 14 CHF 49,385 31 -13,907 46 30,542 68 -16,635 7 CAD 152,779 32 9,029 56 -12,959 51 3,930 38 AUD 152,257 46 -28,516 58 34,225 44 -5,709 39 NZD 50,844 45 -6,610 60 9,879 46 -3,269 14 MXN 151,933 27 14,623 34 -18,552 65 3,929 60 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 61,549 56 41,788 91 -43,371 9 1,583 83 Bitcoin 10,051 52 388 100 -429 0 41 14   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,879 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.5 2.7 9.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.4 68.6 5.0 – Net Position: 33,071 -35,684 2,613 – Gross Longs: 46,264 1,439 5,296 – Gross Shorts: 13,193 37,123 2,683 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.5 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 82.8 15.3 45.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.9 -3.6 -13.9   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -28,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,201 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.0 55.1 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.9 58.7 8.2 – Net Position: -6,378 -24,586 30,964 – Gross Longs: 208,449 383,222 88,267 – Gross Shorts: 214,827 407,808 57,303 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.0 69.0 25.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 6.2 13.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -73,813 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,621 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.5 77.7 7.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.0 44.6 13.3 – Net Position: -73,813 89,026 -15,213 – Gross Longs: 33,536 208,754 20,590 – Gross Shorts: 107,349 119,728 35,803 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 20.8 82.3 24.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.3 22.8 -4.3   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -100,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,535 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.3 84.6 7.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.8 37.4 14.7 – Net Position: -100,794 120,264 -19,470 – Gross Longs: 18,585 215,563 18,007 – Gross Shorts: 119,379 95,299 37,477 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.8 94.3 13.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.7 7.5 13.9   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,038 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,869 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.8 75.8 15.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.0 13.9 48.7 – Net Position: -13,907 30,542 -16,635 – Gross Longs: 4,357 37,429 7,397 – Gross Shorts: 18,264 6,887 24,032 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 5.4 to 1 0.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.7 68.3 7.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.6 11.9 -14.5   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 9,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,852 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,881 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.2 47.5 21.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.3 56.0 18.4 – Net Position: 9,029 -12,959 3,930 – Gross Longs: 44,670 72,629 32,093 – Gross Shorts: 35,641 85,588 28,163 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.7 51.2 37.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.8 -4.0 -17.1   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -28,516 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,651 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.9 52.6 14.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.6 30.2 17.8 – Net Position: -28,516 34,225 -5,709 – Gross Longs: 46,995 80,147 21,330 – Gross Shorts: 75,511 45,922 27,039 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.4 44.4 38.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.0 -10.6 -20.8   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.3 60.6 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.3 41.1 11.2 – Net Position: -6,610 9,879 -3,269 – Gross Longs: 17,427 30,789 2,423 – Gross Shorts: 24,037 20,910 5,692 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.2 45.6 14.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.3 18.4 -32.3   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 14,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,126 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.0 52.3 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.4 64.5 1.9 – Net Position: 14,623 -18,552 3,929 – Gross Longs: 63,860 79,394 6,771 – Gross Shorts: 49,237 97,946 2,842 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.6 65.1 59.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.9 -13.5 -0.9   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 41,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,096 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,884 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.2 13.5 5.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.3 83.9 2.8 – Net Position: 41,788 -43,371 1,583 – Gross Longs: 49,991 8,280 3,278 – Gross Shorts: 8,203 51,651 1,695 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.4 9.0 83.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.2 1.1 -15.4     Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -24 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 412 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.8 3.0 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 76.9 7.2 8.2 – Net Position: 388 -429 41 – Gross Longs: 8,121 298 867 – Gross Shorts: 7,733 727 826 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 99.5 7.1 13.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.0 4.2 -10.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Welcome Back to 1994! [Redux]

Welcome Back to 1994! [Redux]

David Merkel David Merkel 10.05.2022 03:17
Image Credit: Aleph Blog with help from FRED || Look at the mortgage rates fly! Okay, you might or might not remember the last piece. But since that time, 30-year mortgage rates have risen more than 1%. Is the Fed dawdling? Maybe, but the greater threat is that they become too aggressive, and blow up the financial economy, leading us into another decade-long bout of financial repression. As it stands right now, mortgage rates are in a self-reinforcing rising cycle, and it will not end until the Fed raises the Fed funds rate until it inverts the Treasury yield curve. But if I were on the FOMC, I would ignore inflation and the labor markets, and I would watch the financial economy to avoid blowing things up. The FOMC won’t do this. They are wedded to ideas that no longer work, or may never have worked, like the Phillips Curve. They imagine that the macroeconomic models work, when they never do. They forget what Milton Friedman taught — that monetary policy works with long and variable lags. Instead, in tightening cycles, the FOMC acts as if there are no lags. And, in one sense, they are correct. The financial economy reacts immediately to FOMC actions. The real economy, with inflation and unemployment, may take one or two years to see the effects. And because the FOMC forgets about the lags, they overshoot. The FOMC, far from stabilizing the economy, tends to destabilize it. We would be better off running a gold standard, and regulating the banks tightly for solvency. Remember, gold was never the problem — bad bank regulation was the problem. ======================= One more thing — the Fed needs to be quiet. The chatter of Fed governors upsets the markets, as do Fed press conferences and the dot-plot. The Fed was most effective under Volcker and Martin. They said little, and let their actions be known through the Fed’s Open Markets Desk. That allowed the Fed to surprise and lead the markets. The current Fed (since Greenspan) made the mistake of following the markets. Following the markets exacerbates volatility, and promotes oversupplying liquidity. ======================= At present I am pretty sure 30-year mortgage rates will rise to 6%, and maybe 7%. No one is panicking enough on this, so it will likely go higher. MBS hedging is a powerful force, and will continue until people no longer want to buy houses at such high interest rates.
COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets mostly cool off this week

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets mostly cool off this week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 15.05.2022 14:46
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Soft commodities speculator bets cooled off this week with nine out of the eleven markets we cover showing a decrease in their positioning. Soft commodities markets have been red hot this year with the war in Ukraine causing food disruptions, general production problems, food protectionism and, of course, with inflation rising throughout the world. Overall, the soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were just Soybean Oil (3,305 contracts) and Wheat (1,674 contracts). Meanwhile, the soft commodities that saw lower speculator bets on the week were Corn (-30,957 contracts), Sugar (-14,407 contracts), Coffee (-8,142 contracts), Soybeans (-15,794 contracts), Soybean Meal (-15,429 contracts), Live Cattle (-7,233 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,671 contracts), Cotton (-1,674 contracts) and Cocoa (-15,513 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-10-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,736,594 0 310,803 2 -354,479 98 43,676 77 Gold 571,447 34 193,315 40 -227,756 57 34,441 57 Silver 142,752 9 19,082 41 -30,519 69 11,437 9 Copper 184,502 15 -22,626 26 19,249 73 3,377 45 Palladium 8,832 11 -3,245 3 3,434 96 -189 33 Platinum 66,064 32 1,363 5 -5,373 98 4,010 18 Natural Gas 1,108,451 6 -112,529 45 64,006 51 48,523 100 Brent 173,911 19 -31,215 59 30,562 44 653 18 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 694,454 20 174,608 72 -147,698 33 -26,910 26 Corn 1,510,783 23 470,908 90 -415,345 13 -55,563 11 Coffee 212,659 5 32,555 69 -33,559 37 1,004 0 Sugar 797,453 0 187,185 75 -220,611 26 33,426 49 Wheat 308,326 0 21,686 48 -17,779 34 -3,907 92   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 470,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30,957 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 501,865 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.1 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.9 42.7 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.8 70.2 12.6 – Net Position: 470,908 -415,345 -55,563 – Gross Longs: 573,327 644,830 134,903 – Gross Shorts: 102,419 1,060,175 190,466 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.2 12.8 11.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.4 1.3 1.1   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 187,185 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 201,592 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.5 45.8 10.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.0 73.5 6.6 – Net Position: 187,185 -220,611 33,426 – Gross Longs: 251,330 365,263 86,129 – Gross Shorts: 64,145 585,874 52,703 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.1 26.3 49.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.3 -3.4 -9.6   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 32,555 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,697 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.8 56.1 3.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.5 71.9 3.1 – Net Position: 32,555 -33,559 1,004 – Gross Longs: 50,564 119,399 7,690 – Gross Shorts: 18,009 152,958 6,686 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.2 36.5 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.9 7.3 -20.9   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 174,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 190,402 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.4 48.2 7.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.3 69.5 11.0 – Net Position: 174,608 -147,698 -26,910 – Gross Longs: 225,260 334,792 49,376 – Gross Shorts: 50,652 482,490 76,286 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.9 33.1 25.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.3 7.8 1.3   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 100,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,291 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.0 45.8 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 77.9 5.0 – Net Position: 100,596 -118,831 18,235 – Gross Longs: 118,463 169,761 36,820 – Gross Shorts: 17,867 288,592 18,585 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.6 21.8 81.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.7 -8.6 10.0   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 84,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,429 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,561 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.7 47.1 12.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.4 77.1 5.9 – Net Position: 84,132 -108,059 23,927 – Gross Longs: 110,648 169,583 45,065 – Gross Shorts: 26,516 277,642 21,138 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.3 26.8 57.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -21.0 22.2 -25.5   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 39,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,036 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.0 38.1 10.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.1 49.7 12.1 – Net Position: 39,803 -35,783 -4,020 – Gross Longs: 111,188 117,509 33,291 – Gross Shorts: 71,385 153,292 37,311 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.5 66.7 67.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -14.7 8.4 22.1   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 16,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,031 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.7 38.0 10.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.1 43.0 12.8 – Net Position: 16,360 -10,817 -5,543 – Gross Longs: 66,483 82,353 22,102 – Gross Shorts: 50,123 93,170 27,645 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.6 80.7 67.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -40.1 40.4 13.7   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 81,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,674 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,433 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.8 33.8 8.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.3 79.6 3.1 – Net Position: 81,759 -92,603 10,844 – Gross Longs: 94,579 68,251 17,191 – Gross Shorts: 12,820 160,854 6,347 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.4 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.8 23.9 81.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.5 2.7 -14.1   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 21,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,559 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.0 44.1 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 53.6 4.0 – Net Position: 21,046 -26,770 5,724 – Gross Longs: 87,140 124,216 17,042 – Gross Shorts: 66,094 150,986 11,318 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.3 59.9 53.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.3 21.1 -30.6   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 21,686 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,674 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,012 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.2 39.1 9.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 44.9 10.9 – Net Position: 21,686 -17,779 -3,907 – Gross Longs: 111,546 120,631 29,835 – Gross Shorts: 89,860 138,410 33,742 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.3 34.4 92.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.4 -11.9 1.2   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Gold Price Has Been Affected By Fears Of Recession And Hawkish Rhetoric Of Fed (Federal Reserve)

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets mostly lower this week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 15.05.2022 15:30
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Metals speculator bets overall were lower this week with four out of the five metals markets we cover seeing lower bets on the week. The metals markets are seeing a cool off in their speculative positions as well as their prices as most of these markets are down from a short-term peak in early March. The only market with higher speculator bets this week was Platinum (2,904 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were Silver (-8,986 contracts), Gold (-5,853 contracts), Copper (-7,003 contracts) and Palladium (-493 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-10-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index WTI Crude 1,736,594 0 310,803 2 -354,479 98 43,676 77 Gold 571,447 34 193,315 40 -227,756 57 34,441 57 Silver 142,752 9 19,082 41 -30,519 69 11,437 9 Copper 184,502 15 -22,626 26 19,249 73 3,377 45 Palladium 8,832 11 -3,245 3 3,434 96 -189 33 Platinum 66,064 32 1,363 5 -5,373 98 4,010 18 Natural Gas 1,108,451 6 -112,529 45 64,006 51 48,523 100 Brent 173,911 19 -31,215 59 30,562 44 653 18 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 694,454 20 174,608 72 -147,698 33 -26,910 26 Corn 1,510,783 23 470,908 90 -415,345 13 -55,563 11 Coffee 212,659 5 32,555 69 -33,559 37 1,004 0 Sugar 797,453 0 187,185 75 -220,611 26 33,426 49 Wheat 308,326 0 21,686 48 -17,779 34 -3,907 92   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 193,315 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,853 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 199,168 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.6 23.1 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.7 63.0 3.1 – Net Position: 193,315 -227,756 34,441 – Gross Longs: 288,947 132,251 52,098 – Gross Shorts: 95,632 360,007 17,657 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 3.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.9 56.8 57.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -24.1 21.0 19.4   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,082 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,068 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.9 36.9 17.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.5 58.3 9.4 – Net Position: 19,082 -30,519 11,437 – Gross Longs: 59,829 52,637 24,862 – Gross Shorts: 40,747 83,156 13,425 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.4 69.0 9.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -29.1 30.3 -9.9   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -22,626 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,003 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,623 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.2 50.6 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 43.4 40.1 7.5 – Net Position: -22,626 19,249 3,377 – Gross Longs: 57,510 93,318 17,183 – Gross Shorts: 80,136 74,069 13,806 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.1 72.7 44.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -38.3 38.9 -19.5   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,904 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,541 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.6 39.8 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.5 47.9 6.1 – Net Position: 1,363 -5,373 4,010 – Gross Longs: 28,774 26,293 8,029 – Gross Shorts: 27,411 31,666 4,019 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.3 97.6 17.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.1 21.2 -38.4   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -493 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,752 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.5 59.0 11.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.2 20.1 13.3 – Net Position: -3,245 3,434 -189 – Gross Longs: 1,013 5,209 982 – Gross Shorts: 4,258 1,775 1,171 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.9 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.0 96.1 32.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.1 11.8 -48.4   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Inflation remains hot, stocks rebound as peak inflation appears to be in place, bitcoin breached USD 30k

COT Bonds Futures Charts: Speculator bets higher this week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 15.05.2022 15:14
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Bonds market speculator bets mostly rose this week as seven out of the eight bond markets we cover saw higher positioning this week. Most of these markets are deeply bearish (speculator levels and price levels) as bond markets have been declining mightily in this higher interest rate environment this year. This week’s rise in bond speculator bets will likely be short-lived although there have been increasing calls that bond markets may have hit or are approaching a short term bottom. Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were 2-Year Bond (2,342 contracts), Eurodollar (87,521 contracts), 10-Year Bond (61,565 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (15,302 contracts), Long US Bond (1,942 contracts), Fed Funds (104,415 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (7,666 contracts). The only market with declining speculator bets this week was the 5-Year Bond (-6,738 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend May-10-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index Eurodollar 10,439,124 33 -2,600,587 3 3,030,504 97 -429,917 10 FedFunds 1,750,404 55 49,162 46 -49,266 54 104 60 2-Year 2,264,774 21 -126,829 57 201,609 64 -74,780 17 Long T-Bond 1,207,560 50 15,453 90 -4,991 19 -10,462 44 10-Year 3,722,697 45 -85,972 59 268,376 54 -182,404 36 5-Year 3,813,677 38 -325,674 26 502,383 75 -176,709 32   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,600,587 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 87,521 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,688,108 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.4 75.3 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.3 46.3 8.2 – Net Position: -2,600,587 3,030,504 -429,917 – Gross Longs: 356,101 7,861,403 422,820 – Gross Shorts: 2,956,688 4,830,899 852,737 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.3 96.6 9.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.3 3.2 -0.4   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 49,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 104,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,253 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.9 75.2 2.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.1 78.0 2.3 – Net Position: 49,162 -49,266 104 – Gross Longs: 103,238 1,316,147 39,627 – Gross Shorts: 54,076 1,365,413 39,523 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.7 53.9 60.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.8 -10.3 53.3   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -126,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,171 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.1 77.3 6.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.7 68.4 9.5 – Net Position: -126,829 201,609 -74,780 – Gross Longs: 275,153 1,751,572 140,782 – Gross Shorts: 401,982 1,549,963 215,562 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.7 63.9 17.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.7 8.7 11.6   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -325,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -318,936 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.6 83.0 7.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.2 69.9 11.8 – Net Position: -325,674 502,383 -176,709 – Gross Longs: 291,527 3,167,247 271,640 – Gross Shorts: 617,201 2,664,864 448,349 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.1 74.5 32.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.3 -11.7 16.6   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -85,972 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 61,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -147,537 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 76.5 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.2 69.2 13.3 – Net Position: -85,972 268,376 -182,404 – Gross Longs: 406,123 2,846,309 313,590 – Gross Shorts: 492,095 2,577,933 495,994 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.4 53.8 36.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 59.4 -46.2 -0.3   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -95,416 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 15,302 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,718 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.5 82.9 11.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.2 66.3 20.3 – Net Position: -95,416 207,218 -111,802 – Gross Longs: 56,783 1,034,536 141,487 – Gross Shorts: 152,199 827,318 253,289 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.0 93.4 48.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.7 0.4 12.4   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,942 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,511 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 72.1 13.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.6 72.5 13.8 – Net Position: 15,453 -4,991 -10,462 – Gross Longs: 131,916 870,932 156,698 – Gross Shorts: 116,463 875,923 167,160 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.6 18.5 44.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.2 -0.6 1.9   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -311,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -319,179 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.6 84.6 11.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.2 61.6 9.8 – Net Position: -311,513 290,655 20,858 – Gross Longs: 45,084 1,069,894 144,208 – Gross Shorts: 356,597 779,239 123,350 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.1 57.2 43.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.9 0.8 -9.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
FX: British Pound May Astonish Us! GBP/USD - Can We Expect An Uptrend?

COT Currency Speculators raised British Pound Sterling bearish bets for 10th week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 15.05.2022 14:26
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for this week’s Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data this week was the rise in bearish bets for the British pound sterling currency futures contracts. Pound speculators have raised their bearish bets for a tenth consecutive week this week and for the eleventh time out of the past twelve weeks. Over the past ten-week time-frame, pound bets have dropped by a total of -79,261 contracts, going from -337 net positions on March 1st to a total of -79,598 net positions this week. The deterioration in speculator sentiment has now pushed the pound net position to the most bearish standing of the past one hundred and thirty-seven weeks, dating back to September 24th of 2019. Pound sterling sentiment has been hit by a recent slowing economy as the UK GDP declined by 0.1 percent in March after flat growth in February. Also, weighing on the UK economy is the war in Ukraine that has sharply raised inflation in the country (and elsewhere) and which could see the UK economy with the lowest growth rate among G7 countries in 2023, according to the IMF. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (22,907 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,705 contracts), Bitcoin (315 contracts) and the Mexican peso (2,102 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-9,660 contracts), Australian dollar (-13,198 contracts), Brazil real (-1,010 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,856 contracts), British pound sterling (-5,785 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-6,386 contracts), Canadian dollar (-14,436 contracts), Russian ruble (-263 contracts) and the Mexican peso (2,102 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-10-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index USD Index 57,556 84 34,776 86 -37,174 13 2,398 43 EUR 705,046 84 16,529 40 -43,026 64 26,497 18 GBP 264,594 80 -79,598 17 95,245 86 -15,647 23 JPY 247,278 87 -110,454 1 124,927 97 -14,473 24 CHF 51,282 37 -15,763 40 29,819 69 -14,056 16 CAD 151,009 31 -5,407 38 2,939 67 2,468 35 AUD 153,209 47 -41,714 46 47,126 54 -5,412 39 NZD 56,235 56 -12,996 49 16,874 56 -3,878 7 MXN 153,858 28 16,725 34 -20,866 64 4,141 61 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 61,450 55 40,778 90 -42,031 10 1,253 79 Bitcoin 10,841 57 703 100 -789 0 86 15 Open Interest is the amount of contracts that were live in the marketplace at time of data. US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 34,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,071 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.6 3.2 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.2 67.8 4.5 – Net Position: 34,776 -37,174 2,398 – Gross Longs: 49,864 1,837 4,970 – Gross Shorts: 15,088 39,011 2,572 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.0 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.8 12.8 42.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.6 -3.4 -19.3   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 22,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,378 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.4 53.3 12.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.0 59.4 8.3 – Net Position: 16,529 -43,026 26,497 – Gross Longs: 228,230 376,043 84,921 – Gross Shorts: 211,701 419,069 58,424 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.1 63.8 18.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.5 1.2 0.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -79,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,813 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.1 79.6 7.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.2 43.6 13.5 – Net Position: -79,598 95,245 -15,647 – Gross Longs: 29,469 210,627 20,157 – Gross Shorts: 109,067 115,382 35,804 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.6 86.0 23.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.5 25.6 -7.7   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -110,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,660 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -100,794 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.5 86.2 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.2 35.7 13.9 – Net Position: -110,454 124,927 -14,473 – Gross Longs: 11,196 213,084 19,811 – Gross Shorts: 121,650 88,157 34,284 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.8 96.6 24.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.1 0.0 16.7   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -15,763 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,856 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,907 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.2 74.6 16.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.0 16.5 43.5 – Net Position: -15,763 29,819 -14,056 – Gross Longs: 4,727 38,258 8,271 – Gross Shorts: 20,490 8,439 22,327 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 4.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.8 69.2 15.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.7 8.0 -7.6   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,029 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.6 49.8 21.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.2 47.9 20.1 – Net Position: -5,407 2,939 2,468 – Gross Longs: 38,679 75,215 32,880 – Gross Shorts: 44,086 72,276 30,412 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.3 66.9 34.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.0 14.5 -29.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -41,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,198 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,516 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.1 59.9 13.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.3 29.1 16.7 – Net Position: -41,714 47,126 -5,412 – Gross Longs: 36,869 91,731 20,131 – Gross Shorts: 78,583 44,605 25,543 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.2 54.0 39.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.3 4.7 -34.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,610 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.0 68.5 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.1 38.5 10.8 – Net Position: -12,996 16,874 -3,878 – Gross Longs: 15,203 38,541 2,216 – Gross Shorts: 28,199 21,667 6,094 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.5 56.4 7.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.4 26.0 -54.4   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,725 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,623 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.5 53.1 4.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.7 66.7 1.5 – Net Position: 16,725 -20,866 4,141 – Gross Longs: 63,921 81,735 6,467 – Gross Shorts: 47,196 102,601 2,326 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.5 64.1 60.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.6 -10.1 -3.5   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 40,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,010 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,788 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.5 15.4 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.1 83.8 3.0 – Net Position: 40,778 -42,031 1,253 – Gross Longs: 48,835 9,454 3,070 – Gross Shorts: 8,057 51,485 1,817 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.5 10.3 79.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.8 3.5 -20.6   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 388 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.1 2.1 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 74.6 9.4 8.3 – Net Position: 703 -789 86 – Gross Longs: 8,789 227 989 – Gross Shorts: 8,086 1,016 903 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 14.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.0 -24.9 -13.6   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Brent Crude Oil Was Up 2.4% On Friday. What Drives Natural Gas Prices And Crude Oil Price?

COT Futures: This Week’s Energy Charts

Invest Macro Invest Macro 15.05.2022 14:57
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. The energy markets with higher speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (5,177 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (91 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-10,898 contracts), Brent Crude Oil (-3,897 contracts), Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts) and Gasoline (-7,003 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-10-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index WTI Crude 1,736,594 0 310,803 2 -354,479 98 43,676 77 Gold 571,447 34 193,315 40 -227,756 57 34,441 57 Silver 142,752 9 19,082 41 -30,519 69 11,437 9 Copper 184,502 15 -22,626 26 19,249 73 3,377 45 Palladium 8,832 11 -3,245 3 3,434 96 -189 33 Platinum 66,064 32 1,363 5 -5,373 98 4,010 18 Natural Gas 1,108,451 6 -112,529 45 64,006 51 48,523 100 Brent 173,911 19 -31,215 59 30,562 44 653 18 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 694,454 20 174,608 72 -147,698 33 -26,910 26 Corn 1,510,783 23 470,908 90 -415,345 13 -55,563 11 Coffee 212,659 5 32,555 69 -33,559 37 1,004 0 Sugar 797,453 0 187,185 75 -220,611 26 33,426 49 Wheat 308,326 0 21,686 48 -17,779 34 -3,907 92   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 310,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,898 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 321,701 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.9 35.4 5.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.0 55.8 2.7 – Net Position: 310,803 -354,479 43,676 – Gross Longs: 415,170 614,716 90,689 – Gross Shorts: 104,367 969,195 47,013 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.1 98.5 76.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.8 2.2 3.2   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -31,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,318 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.2 48.1 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.2 30.5 4.6 – Net Position: -31,215 30,562 653 – Gross Longs: 33,423 83,639 8,698 – Gross Shorts: 64,638 53,077 8,045 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.6 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.8 44.1 18.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.1 14.9 -40.0   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -112,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,177 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -117,706 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.1 37.9 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.3 32.2 2.2 – Net Position: -112,529 64,006 48,523 – Gross Longs: 234,306 420,582 73,144 – Gross Shorts: 346,835 356,576 24,621 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 3.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.8 51.0 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.5 -9.1 9.6   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 31,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,003 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,381 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.6 50.9 8.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.2 65.6 4.0 – Net Position: 31,378 -44,072 12,694 – Gross Longs: 73,929 152,809 24,799 – Gross Shorts: 42,551 196,881 12,105 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.1 93.0 97.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.0 3.7 34.1   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9 – Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979 – Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210 – Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,263 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 91 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,354 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.7 36.7 2.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 96.2 0.0 0.2 – Net Position: -13,263 12,644 619 – Gross Longs: 19,888 12,644 703 – Gross Shorts: 33,151 0 84 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 inf to 1 8.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.8 41.9 41.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.0 16.3 -11.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Crypto Focus: Market Steadies but No Sign of Recovery

Crypto Focus: Market Steadies but No Sign of Recovery

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 20.05.2022 15:34
Let’s just say things have been a lot more settled this week than last week’s bloodbath. The top 10 and 25 indexes remain positive on Friday. But it’s very little pulled back compared to the damage done over the last 6-weeks. A few headlines that caught our attention this week, Ripple partnered with a Lithuanian firm for cross-border payments. Attention remains on Ethereum as it prepares to merge and just hangs on to the 2000 USD level. Tether is said to be partially backed by non-US government bonds. Is this meant to give us confidence after the stable coins fiasco last week? Talk emerging around debt defaults by El Salvador. The country famously made Bitcoin legal tender and was reported to have bought large parcels on the coin. The pressure continued this week as BTC fell below 29K. Price has moved back above 30K, but pressure remains on the country after this move. Ranges are the topic of a lot of the top ten at this point in the week. We discussed this in detail in our Bitcoin report earlier today, and it’s not really a surprise based on last week’s trade. We want to point out the weekly demand areas and support areas we are seeing holding on several coins. Definitely take a look at some of the top 10 on their weekly charts to see the areas and levels we have brought up. Continuing on from this, we want to show an example of this. As you can see below, Bitcoin weekly has held for now from the 28,600 – 30,000 area. Last week’s plunge failed to break this level, and it remains key weekly support for now. While this level remains in play, we will look for buyers to continue to consolidate.   The post Crypto Focus: Market Steadies but No Sign of Recovery appeared first on Eightcap.
COT Metals Speculators have cooled off their Gold and Copper bets

COT Metals Speculators have cooled off their Gold and Copper bets

Invest Macro Invest Macro 22.05.2022 11:40
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent decrease in the Gold and Copper speculative positions. Gold speculator bets fell this week for the fifth straight week and for the eighth time in the past ten weeks as sentiment for the shiny metal has dulled over the past few months. This latest 5-week decline has amounted to a total reduction of -78,927 contracts from the speculator position. The current speculator standing for Gold remains in bullish position but has descended to lowest level of the past fifteen weeks (at +175,360 contracts), dating back to early February. Despite the speculator decline, the gold price rebounded by over 1 percent this week (close near $1,842 per ounce) following four straight weeks of decline that brought the Gold futures price down from a high of over $2,000 per ounce in mid-April to roughly $1,800 per ounce to close out last week. Copper speculator bets have also cooled over the past couple months and fell this week for the sixth consecutive week. This decline has taken a whopping -60,550 contracts off the speculator position and has dropped the spec level from +36,142 contracts on April 5th to -24,408 contracts this week. This week’s total marks the lowest level for Copper bets in the past 109 weeks, dating back to April 14th of 2020. The slowdown in the Chinese economy and the Covid shutdowns in China have put a dent in the Copper sentiment as China is one of the largest world producers of Copper and is the largest consumer of Copper in the world. Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were just Platinum (840 contracts) and Palladium (30 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were Gold (-17,955 contracts), Silver (-2,968 contracts) and Copper (-1,782 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-17-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,730,665 0 325,637 7 -363,869 95 38,232 69 Gold 555,756 30 175,360 33 -206,879 65 31,519 48 Silver 144,534 11 16,114 38 -24,841 75 8,727 0 Copper 189,483 19 -24,408 25 23,059 75 1,349 33 Palladium 9,114 13 -3,215 3 3,621 97 -406 20 Platinum 65,926 32 2,203 7 -6,697 96 4,494 25 Natural Gas 1,118,417 8 -115,012 44 64,340 51 50,672 100 Brent 176,861 21 -34,867 53 32,127 47 2,740 46 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 709,144 24 183,647 73 -156,937 33 -26,710 26 Corn 1,548,438 29 473,743 91 -424,756 11 -48,987 15 Coffee 206,106 0 38,487 72 -40,949 32 2,462 13 Sugar 825,281 6 196,630 77 -245,374 22 48,744 68 Wheat 326,651 8 28,806 57 -26,020 23 -2,786 98   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 175,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 193,315 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.9 24.8 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.4 62.0 3.4 – Net Position: 175,360 -206,879 31,519 – Gross Longs: 283,011 137,687 50,588 – Gross Shorts: 107,651 344,566 19,069 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.2 64.8 48.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.3 26.1 -5.4   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,968 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,082 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.4 37.6 16.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.3 54.7 10.0 – Net Position: 16,114 -24,841 8,727 – Gross Longs: 59,857 54,287 23,121 – Gross Shorts: 43,743 79,128 14,394 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.4 74.5 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.8 34.5 -34.4   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,782 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,626 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.1 53.6 8.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.9 41.4 7.6 – Net Position: -24,408 23,059 1,349 – Gross Longs: 53,159 101,533 15,747 – Gross Shorts: 77,567 78,474 14,398 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.8 75.3 33.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -43.6 45.4 -32.1   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,203 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,363 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.9 39.4 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.5 49.6 5.4 – Net Position: 2,203 -6,697 4,494 – Gross Longs: 28,253 26,002 8,051 – Gross Shorts: 26,050 32,699 3,557 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.5 95.8 24.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.0 15.5 -29.7   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 30 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,245 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 62.7 11.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.2 22.9 15.7 – Net Position: -3,215 3,621 -406 – Gross Longs: 996 5,712 1,021 – Gross Shorts: 4,211 2,091 1,427 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.2 97.1 20.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.7 12.4 -58.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Forex Speculators weaken Commodity Currency sentiment over last month - 22.05.2022

Forex Speculators weaken Commodity Currency sentiment over last month - 22.05.2022

Invest Macro Invest Macro 22.05.2022 12:34
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Click for larger image Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the commodity currency speculator positions that have been on the defensive in recent weeks. Canadian dollar positions declined for a fourth straight week this week and have fallen by a total of -35,722 contracts over the past four weeks. This has pushed the overall speculator standing into a bearish position for a second straight week and to the most bearish level since October 2021. Previously, from the middle of January, CAD positions had started to trend higher and mostly maintained a bullish position into April, reaching a 40-week high on April 19th before seeing speculator sentiment weaken (-14,496 contracts this week). Australian dollar spec positions slipped for a third straight week this week and the overall speculator position has now hit a 7-week low. Aussie positions have maintained a bearish speculator bias since last May (52 consecutive weeks in bearish territory) but had recently seen a reprieve of the weak sentiment. Aussie positions improved strongly from late-February to late-April with a 10-week contract rise of +59,043 positions from February 22nd to April 26th. The speculator positions hit the least bearish level (on April 26th) of the previous 42 weeks before these past 3 weeks has seen speculators re-up their bearish levels. New Zealand dollar speculators also added to their bearish bets for a fourth straight week and have now pushed the position to the most bearish level since March 17th of 2020, a span of 113 weeks. Kiwi speculator positions had spent almost all of 2021 in bullish levels but spec bets started to falter at the end of the year and into the new year (through early March). Recently, positions had turned positive to bullish positioning in the middle of March and again later in April before turning lower in recent weeks. The NZD speculator sentiment has now been in bearish territory for the past three weeks after dropping by a total of -18,132 contracts from April 26th to this week. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (1,437 contracts), Japanese yen (8,145 contracts), Euro (3,810 contracts), British pound sterling (357 contracts), Bitcoin (103 contracts) and the Mexican peso (11,490 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the New Zealand dollar (-4,771 contracts), Canadian dollar (-9,089 contracts), Australian dollar (-2,928 contracts), Brazil real (-2,683 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-829 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-17-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 61,899 93 36,213 88 -39,506 9 3,293 53 EUR 706,712 85 20,339 41 -51,517 61 31,178 26 GBP 253,811 73 -79,241 17 94,344 85 -15,103 24 JPY 241,308 83 -102,309 6 115,062 92 -12,753 28 CHF 53,291 42 -16,592 37 31,181 72 -14,589 14 CAD 151,585 31 -14,496 28 12,591 75 1,905 34 AUD 163,809 55 -44,642 43 54,437 59 -9,795 29 NZD 60,804 64 -17,767 41 21,390 63 -3,623 10 MXN 170,924 36 28,215 39 -32,249 59 4,034 60 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 55,990 48 38,095 88 -39,436 13 1,341 80 Bitcoin 11,644 63 806 100 -875 0 69 15   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 36,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,437 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,776 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.5 3.4 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.0 67.2 3.5 – Net Position: 36,213 -39,506 3,293 – Gross Longs: 53,519 2,105 5,449 – Gross Shorts: 17,306 41,611 2,156 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.2 9.0 52.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.5 -7.2 -0.5   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 20,339 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,529 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 52.7 12.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.8 59.9 7.7 – Net Position: 20,339 -51,517 31,178 – Gross Longs: 230,770 372,113 85,455 – Gross Shorts: 210,431 423,630 54,277 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.2 61.4 26.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.2 -0.5 14.8   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -79,241 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 357 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,598 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.5 79.4 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.7 42.3 14.1 – Net Position: -79,241 94,344 -15,103 – Gross Longs: 26,613 201,647 20,811 – Gross Shorts: 105,854 107,303 35,914 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.9 85.5 24.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -27.0 21.6 1.9   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -102,309 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,454 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.0 84.7 8.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.4 37.0 14.0 – Net Position: -102,309 115,062 -12,753 – Gross Longs: 12,113 204,417 20,933 – Gross Shorts: 114,422 89,355 33,686 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.9 91.8 27.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.9 -5.0 17.6   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -16,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -829 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,763 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.8 74.5 15.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.0 16.0 42.6 – Net Position: -16,592 31,181 -14,589 – Gross Longs: 5,240 39,722 8,094 – Gross Shorts: 21,832 8,541 22,683 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 4.7 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.6 72.3 13.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.9 12.9 -19.8   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,407 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.8 52.7 20.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.4 44.4 19.3 – Net Position: -14,496 12,591 1,905 – Gross Longs: 36,069 79,825 31,228 – Gross Shorts: 50,565 67,234 29,323 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.5 75.0 33.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.4 33.9 -43.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -44,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,928 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,714 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.3 60.4 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.6 27.1 17.7 – Net Position: -44,642 54,437 -9,795 – Gross Longs: 41,473 98,903 19,187 – Gross Shorts: 86,115 44,466 28,982 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.4 59.5 28.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.6 24.0 -60.9   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -17,767 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,771 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,996 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.7 71.1 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.9 35.9 9.8 – Net Position: -17,767 21,390 -3,623 – Gross Longs: 14,998 43,219 2,358 – Gross Shorts: 32,765 21,829 5,981 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.5 63.4 10.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -27.2 32.7 -57.5   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 28,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,490 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,725 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.5 49.1 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.0 67.9 1.7 – Net Position: 28,215 -32,249 4,034 – Gross Longs: 77,819 83,844 7,000 – Gross Shorts: 49,604 116,093 2,966 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.4 59.4 60.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.6 -11.0 -3.5   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 38,095 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,778 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.8 16.9 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.7 87.3 3.7 – Net Position: 38,095 -39,436 1,341 – Gross Longs: 42,989 9,470 3,438 – Gross Shorts: 4,894 48,906 2,097 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.8 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 87.8 12.8 80.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 8.3 -12.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 103 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 703 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 82.1 1.7 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.2 9.2 8.7 – Net Position: 806 -875 69 – Gross Longs: 9,564 194 1,081 – Gross Shorts: 8,758 1,069 1,012 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 14.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.1 -29.8 -13.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.  
WCU: Recession fears drive steep commodity declines

COT Metals Speculators have cooled off their Gold and Copper bets - 22.05.2022

Invest Macro Invest Macro 22.05.2022 12:33
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent decrease in the Gold and Copper speculative positions. Gold speculator bets fell this week for the fifth straight week and for the eighth time in the past ten weeks as sentiment for the shiny metal has dulled over the past few months. This latest 5-week decline has amounted to a total reduction of -78,927 contracts from the speculator position. The current speculator standing for Gold remains in bullish position but has descended to lowest level of the past fifteen weeks (at +175,360 contracts), dating back to early February. Despite the speculator decline, the gold price rebounded by over 1 percent this week (close near $1,842 per ounce) following four straight weeks of decline that brought the Gold futures price down from a high of over $2,000 per ounce in mid-April to roughly $1,800 per ounce to close out last week. Copper speculator bets have also cooled over the past couple months and fell this week for the sixth consecutive week. This decline has taken a whopping -60,550 contracts off the speculator position and has dropped the spec level from +36,142 contracts on April 5th to -24,408 contracts this week. This week’s total marks the lowest level for Copper bets in the past 109 weeks, dating back to April 14th of 2020. The slowdown in the Chinese economy and the Covid shutdowns in China have put a dent in the Copper sentiment as China is one of the largest world producers of Copper and is the largest consumer of Copper in the world. Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were just Platinum (840 contracts) and Palladium (30 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were Gold (-17,955 contracts), Silver (-2,968 contracts) and Copper (-1,782 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-17-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index WTI Crude 1,730,665 0 325,637 7 -363,869 95 38,232 69 Gold 555,756 30 175,360 33 -206,879 65 31,519 48 Silver 144,534 11 16,114 38 -24,841 75 8,727 0 Copper 189,483 19 -24,408 25 23,059 75 1,349 33 Palladium 9,114 13 -3,215 3 3,621 97 -406 20 Platinum 65,926 32 2,203 7 -6,697 96 4,494 25 Natural Gas 1,118,417 8 -115,012 44 64,340 51 50,672 100 Brent 176,861 21 -34,867 53 32,127 47 2,740 46 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 709,144 24 183,647 73 -156,937 33 -26,710 26 Corn 1,548,438 29 473,743 91 -424,756 11 -48,987 15 Coffee 206,106 0 38,487 72 -40,949 32 2,462 13 Sugar 825,281 6 196,630 77 -245,374 22 48,744 68 Wheat 326,651 8 28,806 57 -26,020 23 -2,786 98   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 175,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 193,315 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.9 24.8 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.4 62.0 3.4 – Net Position: 175,360 -206,879 31,519 – Gross Longs: 283,011 137,687 50,588 – Gross Shorts: 107,651 344,566 19,069 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.2 64.8 48.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.3 26.1 -5.4   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,968 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,082 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.4 37.6 16.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.3 54.7 10.0 – Net Position: 16,114 -24,841 8,727 – Gross Longs: 59,857 54,287 23,121 – Gross Shorts: 43,743 79,128 14,394 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.4 74.5 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.8 34.5 -34.4   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,782 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,626 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.1 53.6 8.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.9 41.4 7.6 – Net Position: -24,408 23,059 1,349 – Gross Longs: 53,159 101,533 15,747 – Gross Shorts: 77,567 78,474 14,398 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.8 75.3 33.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -43.6 45.4 -32.1   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,203 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,363 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.9 39.4 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.5 49.6 5.4 – Net Position: 2,203 -6,697 4,494 – Gross Longs: 28,253 26,002 8,051 – Gross Shorts: 26,050 32,699 3,557 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.5 95.8 24.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.0 15.5 -29.7   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 30 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,245 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 62.7 11.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.2 22.9 15.7 – Net Position: -3,215 3,621 -406 – Gross Longs: 996 5,712 1,021 – Gross Shorts: 4,211 2,091 1,427 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.2 97.1 20.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.7 12.4 -58.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Futures Charts: Soft Commodities Speculator bets mixed

COT Futures Charts: Soft Commodities Speculator bets mixed

Invest Macro Invest Macro 22.05.2022 12:32
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Soft Commodities market speculator bets were mixed this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning this week while six markets saw lower positions. Leading the gains for the soft commodities was Sugar (9,445 contracts) and Soybeans (9,039 contracts) with Wheat (7,120 contracts), Coffee (5,932 contracts) and Corn (2,835 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-10,832 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-8,595 contracts) with Live Cattle (-4,773 contracts), Soybean Oil (-4,295 contracts), Cotton (-2,443 contracts) and Cocoa (-2,463 contracts) also coming in with lower bets on the week. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-17-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index WTI Crude 1,730,665 0 325,637 7 -363,869 95 38,232 69 Gold 555,756 30 175,360 33 -206,879 65 31,519 48 Silver 144,534 11 16,114 38 -24,841 75 8,727 0 Copper 189,483 19 -24,408 25 23,059 75 1,349 33 Palladium 9,114 13 -3,215 3 3,621 97 -406 20 Platinum 65,926 32 2,203 7 -6,697 96 4,494 25 Natural Gas 1,118,417 8 -115,012 44 64,340 51 50,672 100 Brent 176,861 21 -34,867 53 32,127 47 2,740 46 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 709,144 24 183,647 73 -156,937 33 -26,710 26 Corn 1,548,438 29 473,743 91 -424,756 11 -48,987 15 Coffee 206,106 0 38,487 72 -40,949 32 2,462 13 Sugar 825,281 6 196,630 77 -245,374 22 48,744 68 Wheat 326,651 8 28,806 57 -26,020 23 -2,786 98   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 473,743 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,835 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 470,908 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.1 42.2 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.5 69.6 12.4 – Net Position: 473,743 -424,756 -48,987 – Gross Longs: 589,352 653,039 143,508 – Gross Shorts: 115,609 1,077,795 192,495 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.6 11.4 14.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.7 -0.1 8.0   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 196,630 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,445 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 187,185 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.6 45.9 11.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.8 75.6 5.5 – Net Position: 196,630 -245,374 48,744 – Gross Longs: 252,752 378,422 94,457 – Gross Shorts: 56,122 623,796 45,713 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 77.0 21.6 68.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.7 -1.0 -3.5   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 38,487 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,932 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,555 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.0 54.0 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.3 73.9 2.9 – Net Position: 38,487 -40,949 2,462 – Gross Longs: 49,501 111,397 8,495 – Gross Shorts: 11,014 152,346 6,033 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.1 32.1 12.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.6 7.1 -21.6   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 183,647 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,039 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 174,608 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 47.8 7.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.8 69.9 10.8 – Net Position: 183,647 -156,937 -26,710 – Gross Longs: 231,911 338,718 49,750 – Gross Shorts: 48,264 495,655 76,460 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.8 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.6 33.0 25.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.3 3.7 2.3   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 96,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,596 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.1 46.1 10.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.2 77.7 4.9 – Net Position: 96,301 -117,724 21,423 – Gross Longs: 115,709 171,880 39,590 – Gross Shorts: 19,408 289,604 18,167 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.5 23.8 93.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -7.1 21.4   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 73,300 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,832 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,132 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.6 47.3 13.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.4 75.2 6.3 – Net Position: 73,300 -100,729 27,429 – Gross Longs: 103,499 171,144 50,082 – Gross Shorts: 30,199 271,873 22,653 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.3 30.6 75.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.1 27.7 -14.2   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 35,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,803 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.6 39.2 10.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.0 49.7 12.0 – Net Position: 35,030 -31,417 -3,613 – Gross Longs: 107,168 117,903 32,549 – Gross Shorts: 72,138 149,320 36,162 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 22.7 70.8 69.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.2 12.4 16.6   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,595 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,360 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.9 39.9 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.1 41.2 13.0 – Net Position: 7,765 -2,647 -5,118 – Gross Longs: 58,847 81,203 21,361 – Gross Shorts: 51,082 83,850 26,479 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.2 90.3 70.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -41.1 42.7 8.5   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 79,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,443 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,759 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.1 34.6 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.0 79.4 3.5 – Net Position: 79,316 -90,872 11,556 – Gross Longs: 91,525 70,065 18,559 – Gross Shorts: 12,209 160,937 7,003 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.2 24.9 85.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.2 4.0 -12.1   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,583 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,046 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.9 44.5 5.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 52.6 4.0 – Net Position: 18,583 -23,668 5,085 – Gross Longs: 87,225 129,740 16,687 – Gross Shorts: 68,642 153,408 11,602 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.8 62.9 47.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.7 19.0 -14.9   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 28,806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,686 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.2 36.8 10.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.4 44.8 11.3 – Net Position: 28,806 -26,020 -2,786 – Gross Longs: 121,593 120,341 33,993 – Gross Shorts: 92,787 146,361 36,779 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.5 22.7 98.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.5 -15.2 9.7   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index Decreased. What's Going On Energy Market?

COT Charts: Speculator positions were mixed in Energy this week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 22.05.2022 12:21
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week. Overall, the energy markets with higher speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (14,834 contracts), Gasoline (2,420 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (3,624 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were Brent Crude Oil (-3,652 contracts), Natural Gas (-2,483 contracts) and Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-17-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index WTI Crude 1,730,665 0 325,637 7 -363,869 95 38,232 69 Gold 555,756 30 175,360 33 -206,879 65 31,519 48 Silver 144,534 11 16,114 38 -24,841 75 8,727 0 Copper 189,483 19 -24,408 25 23,059 75 1,349 33 Palladium 9,114 13 -3,215 3 3,621 97 -406 20 Platinum 65,926 32 2,203 7 -6,697 96 4,494 25 Natural Gas 1,118,417 8 -115,012 44 64,340 51 50,672 100 Brent 176,861 21 -34,867 53 32,127 47 2,740 46 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 709,144 24 183,647 73 -156,937 33 -26,710 26 Corn 1,548,438 29 473,743 91 -424,756 11 -48,987 15 Coffee 206,106 0 38,487 72 -40,949 32 2,462 13 Sugar 825,281 6 196,630 77 -245,374 22 48,744 68 Wheat 326,651 8 28,806 57 -26,020 23 -2,786 98   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 325,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,834 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 310,803 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.0 35.3 5.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.2 56.3 2.9 – Net Position: 325,637 -363,869 38,232 – Gross Longs: 416,190 611,264 88,406 – Gross Shorts: 90,553 975,133 50,174 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.3 94.9 68.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.0 -3.3 -12.1   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -34,867 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,215 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.7 50.8 4.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.4 32.7 3.1 – Net Position: -34,867 32,127 2,740 – Gross Longs: 27,757 89,898 8,270 – Gross Shorts: 62,624 57,771 5,530 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 52.7 46.7 46.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.7 9.3 -5.9   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -115,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,483 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -112,529 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.7 37.5 6.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.0 31.7 2.2 – Net Position: -115,012 64,340 50,672 – Gross Longs: 231,576 419,033 75,523 – Gross Shorts: 346,588 354,693 24,851 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 3.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.1 51.1 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.5 -9.0 15.8   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 33,798 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,420 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,378 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.6 52.8 7.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.6 68.0 3.7 – Net Position: 33,798 -46,770 12,972 – Gross Longs: 75,744 162,371 24,256 – Gross Shorts: 41,946 209,141 11,284 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.5 90.3 99.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 3.3 39.2   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9 – Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979 – Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210 – Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -9,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,624 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,263 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 67.2 25.2 2.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 94.1 0.0 0.2 – Net Position: -9,639 9,002 637 – Gross Longs: 24,050 9,002 715 – Gross Shorts: 33,689 0 78 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 inf to 1 9.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.6 27.9 42.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.9 3.1 -1.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Ending a bad month in the red

COT Bonds Futures Charts: Speculator bets mostly lower this week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 22.05.2022 12:13
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Bonds market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had lower positioning this week. Most of these markets remain bearish (speculator levels and price levels) in the higher interest rate environment of 2022. The exceptions in the COT speculator positioning are the Fed Funds positions which recently turned positive in early April and have maintained a small bullish level in six out of the past seven weeks. The US Treasury Bond positions also turned positive in early March and have also had a small bullish position in nine out of the past eleven weeks. Overall, the bond markets with higher speculator bets for this week were Long US Bond (16,554 contracts), 5-Year Bond (65,450 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (16,954 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were the 2-Year Bond (-7,808 contracts), Eurodollar (-273,864 contracts), 10-Year Bond (-74,119 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (-2,421 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-147 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend May-17-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index Eurodollar 10,381,883 32 -2,874,451 0 3,300,959 100 -426,508 11 FedFunds 1,796,405 58 49,015 46 -45,484 54 -3,531 51 2-Year 2,376,024 26 -134,637 55 209,074 66 -74,437 18 Long T-Bond 1,244,823 57 32,007 95 -14,575 15 -17,432 39 10-Year 3,666,416 41 -160,091 48 318,592 60 -158,501 42 5-Year 3,791,540 37 -260,224 38 417,629 64 -157,405 38   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,874,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -273,864 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,600,587 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.2 76.0 3.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.9 44.2 7.8 – Net Position: -2,874,451 3,300,959 -426,508 – Gross Longs: 336,958 7,889,274 386,384 – Gross Shorts: 3,211,409 4,588,315 812,892 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 10.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.5 5.9 4.6   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 49,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,162 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.6 75.5 2.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 2.8 78.0 2.3 – Net Position: 49,015 -45,484 -3,531 – Gross Longs: 100,043 1,355,889 37,674 – Gross Shorts: 51,028 1,401,373 41,205 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.7 54.4 50.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.6 -5.3 16.5   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -134,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -126,829 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.0 76.6 5.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.6 67.8 8.9 – Net Position: -134,637 209,074 -74,437 – Gross Longs: 307,951 1,818,876 137,690 – Gross Shorts: 442,588 1,609,802 212,127 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.1 65.6 17.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.6 8.0 10.7   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -260,224 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 65,450 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -325,674 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.9 81.1 7.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.7 70.1 11.7 – Net Position: -260,224 417,629 -157,405 – Gross Longs: 298,615 3,074,092 284,595 – Gross Shorts: 558,839 2,656,463 442,000 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 37.5 64.2 37.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.7 -16.5 15.8   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -160,091 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -74,119 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,972 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.6 76.9 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.9 68.2 13.2 – Net Position: -160,091 318,592 -158,501 – Gross Longs: 314,613 2,819,008 325,049 – Gross Shorts: 474,704 2,500,416 483,550 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.1 59.7 42.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 30.8 -29.7 11.0   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -97,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,421 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,416 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.6 81.6 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.6 65.2 20.7 – Net Position: -97,837 200,995 -103,158 – Gross Longs: 56,209 1,000,137 150,063 – Gross Shorts: 154,046 799,142 253,221 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.4 91.8 53.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.6 -8.2 20.7   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 32,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 16,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,453 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.7 72.5 12.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.2 73.6 13.7 – Net Position: 32,007 -14,575 -17,432 – Gross Longs: 146,002 902,140 152,520 – Gross Shorts: 113,995 916,715 169,952 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.0 15.5 38.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.0 -7.4 -6.1   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -294,559 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 16,954 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -311,513 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.7 81.8 11.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.3 61.5 9.3 – Net Position: -294,559 264,222 30,337 – Gross Longs: 48,033 1,065,877 151,667 – Gross Shorts: 342,592 801,655 121,330 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.1 44.2 50.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.8 -21.4 5.2   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 21 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed

COT Week 21 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed

Invest Macro Invest Macro 28.05.2022 19:32
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for energy was WTI Crude Oil (9,124 contracts) and Natural Gas (3,442 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (126 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (-4,422 contracts) with Gasoline (-1,373 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-24-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,711,863 0 334,761 11 -374,627 91 39,866 71 Gold 530,098 22 183,813 14 -211,947 82 28,134 37 Silver 146,456 13 14,103 26 -23,297 88 9,194 3 Copper 186,433 17 -19,633 28 19,288 73 345 27 Palladium 7,919 7 -3,472 2 3,800 98 -328 25 Platinum 65,824 32 1,485 5 -6,683 96 5,198 34 Natural Gas 1,107,496 6 -111,570 45 63,847 51 47,723 93 Brent 183,629 27 -39,289 45 37,488 56 1,801 34 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 729,900 28 188,368 72 -159,047 34 -29,321 21 Corn 1,544,885 29 427,848 85 -372,522 19 -55,326 11 Coffee 211,266 5 37,072 71 -38,484 34 1,412 4 Sugar 847,420 11 209,487 80 -255,450 20 45,963 65 Wheat 326,607 8 26,344 53 -24,339 25 -2,005 100   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 334,761 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 325,637 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.7 34.1 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.1 56.0 2.7 – Net Position: 334,761 -374,627 39,866 – Gross Longs: 422,541 584,496 86,091 – Gross Shorts: 87,780 959,123 46,225 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.5 90.7 71.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.5 -9.3 -8.4   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -39,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,422 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,867 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.8 52.6 3.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 36.2 32.2 2.7 – Net Position: -39,289 37,488 1,801 – Gross Longs: 27,144 96,551 6,828 – Gross Shorts: 66,433 59,063 5,027 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.2 55.6 33.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.0 5.9 -7.9   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -111,570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -115,012 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.8 37.4 6.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.9 31.6 2.4 – Net Position: -111,570 63,847 47,723 – Gross Longs: 230,219 413,701 74,555 – Gross Shorts: 341,789 349,854 26,832 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.1 51.0 93.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.8 -8.4 0.9   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 32,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,798 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.4 55.0 7.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.9 69.1 4.0 – Net Position: 32,425 -43,599 11,174 – Gross Longs: 72,517 170,888 23,596 – Gross Shorts: 40,092 214,487 12,422 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.1 93.4 87.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.1 6.6 16.3   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9 – Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979 – Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210 – Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,639 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 65.8 26.2 1.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 93.5 0.0 0.4 – Net Position: -9,513 9,010 503 – Gross Longs: 22,645 9,010 636 – Gross Shorts: 32,158 0 133 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 inf to 1 4.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.1 27.9 37.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.8 3.4 -5.5   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 21 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculator bets mostly lower led by Corn & Soybean Oil

COT Week 21 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculator bets mostly lower led by Corn & Soybean Oil

Invest Macro Invest Macro 28.05.2022 20:00
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Soft Commodities market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as only three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning this week while eight markets saw lower positions. Leading the gains for the soft commodities was Sugar (12,857 contracts) and Soybean Meal (8,607 contracts) with Soybeans (4,721 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-45,895 contracts) and Soybean Oil (-16,805 contracts) with Coffee (-1,415 contracts), Live Cattle (-12,283 contracts), Lean Hogs (-407 contracts), Cotton (-6,796 contracts), Cocoa (-10,000 contracts), and Wheat (-2,462 contracts) also coming in with lower bets on the week.   Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-24-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,711,863 0 334,761 11 -374,627 91 39,866 71 Gold 530,098 22 183,813 14 -211,947 82 28,134 37 Silver 146,456 13 14,103 26 -23,297 88 9,194 3 Copper 186,433 17 -19,633 28 19,288 73 345 27 Palladium 7,919 7 -3,472 2 3,800 98 -328 25 Platinum 65,824 32 1,485 5 -6,683 96 5,198 34 Natural Gas 1,107,496 6 -111,570 45 63,847 51 47,723 93 Brent 183,629 27 -39,289 45 37,488 56 1,801 34 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 729,900 28 188,368 72 -159,047 34 -29,321 21 Corn 1,544,885 29 427,848 85 -372,522 19 -55,326 11 Coffee 211,266 5 37,072 71 -38,484 34 1,412 4 Sugar 847,420 11 209,487 80 -255,450 20 45,963 65 Wheat 326,607 8 26,344 53 -24,339 25 -2,005 100   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 427,848 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -45,895 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 473,743 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.5 42.5 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.8 66.7 12.7 – Net Position: 427,848 -372,522 -55,326 – Gross Longs: 563,850 657,258 140,433 – Gross Shorts: 136,002 1,029,780 195,759 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.7 18.9 11.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.7 10.1 -2.0   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 209,487 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 196,630 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.0 44.9 10.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.3 75.0 5.3 – Net Position: 209,487 -255,450 45,963 – Gross Longs: 262,661 380,523 90,969 – Gross Shorts: 53,174 635,973 45,006 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.7 19.7 64.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.2 8.8 -19.5   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 37,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,487 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.0 54.1 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.5 72.3 3.2 – Net Position: 37,072 -38,484 1,412 – Gross Longs: 46,580 114,208 8,167 – Gross Shorts: 9,508 152,692 6,755 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.9 34.3 4.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.4 12.9 -33.9   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 188,368 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 183,647 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.4 47.3 6.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.5 69.1 10.8 – Net Position: 188,368 -159,047 -29,321 – Gross Longs: 236,164 345,076 49,551 – Gross Shorts: 47,796 504,123 78,872 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.6 34.3 21.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.0 3.3 -2.9   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 79,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -16,805 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 96,301 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.6 47.5 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.3 74.0 4.5 – Net Position: 79,496 -98,691 19,195 – Gross Longs: 106,705 177,213 35,857 – Gross Shorts: 27,209 275,904 16,662 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.6 36.2 85.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.0 12.2 -6.0   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 81,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,607 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,300 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.5 46.5 13.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.7 76.6 6.2 – Net Position: 81,907 -108,388 26,481 – Gross Longs: 102,564 167,414 48,827 – Gross Shorts: 20,657 275,802 22,346 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.1 26.6 70.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.1 20.7 -27.9   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 22,747 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,283 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,030 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.7 41.3 11.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.1 48.8 11.7 – Net Position: 22,747 -22,153 -594 – Gross Longs: 99,928 122,357 34,015 – Gross Shorts: 77,181 144,510 34,609 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.9 83.0 79.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -36.5 29.0 27.5   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 7,358 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,765 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.3 41.7 10.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.6 42.3 13.3 – Net Position: 7,358 -1,239 -6,119 – Gross Longs: 55,555 81,805 19,958 – Gross Shorts: 48,197 83,044 26,077 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.8 92.0 64.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -36.4 40.7 -5.5   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 72,520 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,796 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,316 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.5 36.7 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.0 77.5 3.2 – Net Position: 72,520 -83,537 11,017 – Gross Longs: 86,947 75,106 17,532 – Gross Shorts: 14,427 158,643 6,515 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.9 29.2 82.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.8 7.7 -15.5   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 8,583 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,000 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,583 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.9 44.5 5.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.0 49.0 4.0 – Net Position: 8,583 -13,540 4,957 – Gross Longs: 89,159 132,424 16,784 – Gross Shorts: 80,576 145,964 11,827 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.0 72.7 46.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.0 32.2 -25.0   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 26,344 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.2 35.4 10.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.1 42.9 10.9 – Net Position: 26,344 -24,339 -2,005 – Gross Longs: 118,170 115,722 33,634 – Gross Shorts: 91,826 140,061 35,639 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.3 25.1 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.2 -4.4 3.2   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 21 Charts: Bonds Speculator bets mostly lower this week

COT Week 21 Charts: Bonds Speculator bets mostly lower this week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 28.05.2022 20:32
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. COT bonds market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as only three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while five markets saw lower positions. Leading the gains for bonds was the 5-Year Bond (139,697 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (99,344 contracts) with the Eurodollar (41,671 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the 10-Year Bond (-65,033 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-13,336 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year (-1,088 contracts), Long US Bond (-3,505 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-6,524 contracts) also coming in with lower bets on the week. Speculator strength standings for each Bond Market where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend May-24-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index Eurodollar 10,441,566 33 -2,832,780 1 3,227,860 99 -395,080 17 FedFunds 1,859,067 65 42,491 45 -38,493 55 -3,998 50 2-Year 2,526,000 32 -35,293 75 106,854 43 -71,561 19 Long T-Bond 1,267,244 60 28,502 94 -11,224 17 -17,278 39 10-Year 3,662,628 41 -225,124 38 376,665 67 -151,541 44 5-Year 4,011,412 52 -120,527 62 292,048 49 -171,521 34   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,832,780 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 41,671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,874,451 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.4 75.4 3.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.5 44.5 7.5 – Net Position: -2,832,780 3,227,860 -395,080 – Gross Longs: 351,909 7,877,754 384,474 – Gross Shorts: 3,184,689 4,649,894 779,554 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.8 98.7 17.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.5 3.1 3.7   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 42,491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,524 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,015 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.4 75.5 2.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.1 77.5 2.3 – Net Position: 42,491 -38,493 -3,998 – Gross Longs: 119,202 1,403,144 39,289 – Gross Shorts: 76,711 1,441,637 43,287 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.9 55.2 49.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.0 -2.6 33.5   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -35,293 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 99,344 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -134,637 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.3 73.0 5.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.7 68.8 8.7 – Net Position: -35,293 106,854 -71,561 – Gross Longs: 361,614 1,845,029 147,143 – Gross Shorts: 396,907 1,738,175 218,704 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.1 43.2 18.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.2 -11.4 -1.5   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -120,527 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 139,697 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -260,224 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.1 77.1 9.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.1 69.8 14.0 – Net Position: -120,527 292,048 -171,521 – Gross Longs: 405,475 3,093,412 388,207 – Gross Shorts: 526,002 2,801,364 559,728 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.1 48.9 33.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 37.6 -30.6 10.2   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -225,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -65,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -160,091 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.5 77.4 9.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.6 67.1 13.8 – Net Position: -225,124 376,665 -151,541 – Gross Longs: 273,667 2,834,111 354,203 – Gross Shorts: 498,791 2,457,446 505,744 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.2 66.6 43.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.4 -14.4 11.0   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -98,925 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,088 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -97,837 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.3 80.9 11.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.0 64.5 20.7 – Net Position: -98,925 211,834 -112,909 – Gross Longs: 68,305 1,044,490 153,665 – Gross Shorts: 167,230 832,656 266,574 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.1 94.6 47.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 0.3 20.8   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 28,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,505 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,007 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.2 72.8 14.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.9 73.7 15.4 – Net Position: 28,502 -11,224 -17,278 – Gross Longs: 141,452 922,729 177,518 – Gross Shorts: 112,950 933,953 194,796 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 93.9 16.6 38.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.0 -7.5 -7.9   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -307,895 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -294,559 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.6 81.8 11.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.8 60.9 10.3 – Net Position: -307,895 290,252 17,643 – Gross Longs: 50,153 1,136,228 161,147 – Gross Shorts: 358,048 845,976 143,504 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.6 57.0 40.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.2 -7.2 -7.3   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Metals Speculators raise bets for Copper and Gold after multi-week slides

COT Metals Speculators raise bets for Copper and Gold after multi-week slides

Invest Macro Invest Macro 28.05.2022 21:00
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the bounce-back in Gold and Copper speculator bets after multiple down weeks for both of these metals. Copper positions saw a small turnaround with a +4,775 contract gain this week after falling for six consecutive weeks which amounted to a total drop by -60,550 net positions from April 12th to May 17th. Copper has been particularly hard hit by the lockdowns in China and the effect that it has had on the industrial and manufacturing economy there. Copper speculator bets have now been oscillating at the lowest levels in approximately two years. Gold positions, meanwhile, rose by +8,453 contracts this week after declining in the previous five weeks and by a total of -78,927 contracts in that period. Gold bullish bets are under the +200,000 net contract level for a fourth straight week after spending the previous ten weeks above that threshold. Currently in 2022, Gold positions are averaging +221,416 weekly contracts so far compared to an average of +204,623 weekly contracts over 2021 and an average of +262,052 weekly contracts over 2020. Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were Gold (8,453 contracts) and Copper (4,775 contracts) while the markets with declining speculator bets this week were Silver (-2,011 contracts), Platinum (-718 contracts) and Palladium (-257 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each market where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-24-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,711,863 0 334,761 11 -374,627 91 39,866 71 Gold 530,098 22 183,813 14 -211,947 82 28,134 37 Silver 146,456 13 14,103 26 -23,297 88 9,194 3 Copper 186,433 17 -19,633 28 19,288 73 345 27 Palladium 7,919 7 -3,472 2 3,800 98 -328 25 Platinum 65,824 32 1,485 5 -6,683 96 5,198 34 Natural Gas 1,107,496 6 -111,570 45 63,847 51 47,723 93 Brent 183,629 27 -39,289 45 37,488 56 1,801 34 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 729,900 28 188,368 72 -159,047 34 -29,321 21 Corn 1,544,885 29 427,848 85 -372,522 19 -55,326 11 Coffee 211,266 5 37,072 71 -38,484 34 1,412 4 Sugar 847,420 11 209,487 80 -255,450 20 45,963 65 Wheat 326,607 8 26,344 53 -24,339 25 -2,005 100   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 183,813 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 175,360 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.2 24.6 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.6 64.6 3.6 – Net Position: 183,813 -211,947 28,134 – Gross Longs: 282,202 130,364 47,411 – Gross Shorts: 98,389 342,311 19,277 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.9 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.0 81.5 37.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -35.7 35.7 -18.1   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 14,103 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,114 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.1 38.9 15.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.5 54.8 9.5 – Net Position: 14,103 -23,297 9,194 – Gross Longs: 58,748 56,910 23,064 – Gross Shorts: 44,645 80,207 13,870 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.1 87.6 2.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -36.9 45.6 -46.6   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,633 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,408 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.0 53.3 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.6 42.9 7.9 – Net Position: -19,633 19,288 345 – Gross Longs: 54,130 99,318 14,993 – Gross Shorts: 73,763 80,030 14,648 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.2 72.7 27.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.9 33.4 -32.1   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -718 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,203 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.6 41.0 13.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.3 51.2 5.1 – Net Position: 1,485 -6,683 5,198 – Gross Longs: 26,052 27,002 8,533 – Gross Shorts: 24,567 33,685 3,335 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.5 95.8 34.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.0 9.0 -22.7   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,472 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,215 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.2 70.1 12.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.0 22.2 16.4 – Net Position: -3,472 3,800 -328 – Gross Longs: 729 5,555 974 – Gross Shorts: 4,201 1,755 1,302 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.7 98.1 24.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.2 13.7 -55.5   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Currency Speculators reboot their Euro bullish bets to a 6-Week High

Currency Speculators reboot their Euro bullish bets to a 6-Week High

Invest Macro Invest Macro 28.05.2022 21:32
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Click to Enlarge Highlighting the COT currency data is the bounce-back for the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculative positions jumped by over +18,000 contracts this week and rose for a third consecutive week. This week marked the second time in the past three weeks that speculator positions increased by more than +18,000 contracts (+22,907 contracts on May 10th) and now Euro bets have gained by a total of +45,308 contracts over the past three weeks. The speculator’s bullish position marks the highest standing of the past six weeks at +38,930 contracts. Euro speculator positions had recently fallen into a bearish speculative level on May 3rd (-6,378 contracts) after dropping by a total of -45,438 contracts from April 19th to May 3rd. This was the first bearish position for the Euro since early January. The speculator sentiment has been weaker so far in 2022 compared to preceding years as Euro bets are averaging just +29,199 weekly contracts in 2022. This compares to the Euro bets average of +60,837 weekly contracts over 2021 and an average of +92,464 weekly contracts over 2020. The recent improvement in Euro positions comes amid increasing expectations for the European Central Bank to start raising interest rates higher and end their negative interest rate regime in the third quarter. The Euro exchange rate recently hit its lowest level versus the US Dollar since January of 2017 with a drop to approximately 1.350 (EUR/USD) on May 13th. Since then, the Euro has rallied over the past couple of weeks and closed Friday at the 1.0733 exchange rate. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (18,591 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,826 contracts), Japanese yen (2,865 contracts), Brazil real (619 contracts), Canadian dollar (1,809 contracts), Mexican peso (1,577 contracts) and Bitcoin (43 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Australian dollar (-804 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,081 contracts), British pound sterling (-1,131 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-1,554 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each market where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-24-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 61,857 93 38,039 91 -40,877 7 2,838 48 EUR 708,938 86 38,930 47 -72,600 55 33,670 30 GBP 253,864 73 -80,372 16 97,042 87 -16,670 21 JPY 237,256 80 -99,444 8 106,699 88 -7,255 39 CHF 49,918 38 -19,673 31 31,694 76 -12,021 17 CAD 138,508 22 -12,687 30 6,933 71 5,754 41 AUD 158,615 51 -45,446 43 53,269 59 -7,823 33 NZD 59,279 61 -19,321 39 22,703 65 -3,382 13 MXN 177,125 39 29,792 40 -34,352 58 4,560 62 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 63,976 59 38,714 88 -40,501 12 1,787 86 Bitcoin 11,729 64 849 100 -817 0 -32 12   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,213 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.8 3.5 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.3 69.6 3.6 – Net Position: 38,039 -40,877 2,838 – Gross Longs: 53,675 2,157 5,076 – Gross Shorts: 15,636 43,034 2,238 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.4 to 1 0.1 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.4 6.7 47.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.5 -8.0 -39.1   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,930 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 18,591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,339 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.4 51.7 12.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.9 61.9 7.6 – Net Position: 38,930 -72,600 33,670 – Gross Longs: 237,072 366,345 87,892 – Gross Shorts: 198,142 438,945 54,222 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.0 55.4 30.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.0 -3.4 19.8   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -80,372 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,131 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,241 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.2 80.3 7.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.9 42.1 14.1 – Net Position: -80,372 97,042 -16,670 – Gross Longs: 25,936 203,802 19,107 – Gross Shorts: 106,308 106,760 35,777 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.1 87.1 21.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.7 15.4 2.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -99,444 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,309 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.0 81.0 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.9 36.0 13.5 – Net Position: -99,444 106,699 -7,255 – Gross Longs: 16,567 192,215 24,858 – Gross Shorts: 116,011 85,516 32,113 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.6 87.7 38.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.6 -12.3 26.0   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,081 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,592 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 2.7 80.0 16.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.1 16.5 40.7 – Net Position: -19,673 31,694 -12,021 – Gross Longs: 1,355 39,913 8,308 – Gross Shorts: 21,028 8,219 20,329 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 4.9 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.8 76.2 16.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.8 12.1 -12.4   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,496 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.9 54.1 23.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.1 49.1 19.0 – Net Position: -12,687 6,933 5,754 – Gross Longs: 28,999 74,953 32,048 – Gross Shorts: 41,686 68,020 26,294 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.4 71.1 41.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.9 32.1 -30.9   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -45,446 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -804 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,642 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.1 62.7 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.7 29.1 16.7 – Net Position: -45,446 53,269 -7,823 – Gross Longs: 36,579 99,401 18,615 – Gross Shorts: 82,025 46,132 26,438 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.7 58.6 33.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.5 26.4 -45.5   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,321 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,767 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.1 76.7 3.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.7 38.4 9.4 – Net Position: -19,321 22,703 -3,382 – Gross Longs: 10,749 45,458 2,202 – Gross Shorts: 30,070 22,755 5,584 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.8 65.4 13.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -31.9 35.7 -46.9   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 29,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,215 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.9 47.7 4.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.1 67.1 1.7 – Net Position: 29,792 -34,352 4,560 – Gross Longs: 83,031 84,474 7,605 – Gross Shorts: 53,239 118,826 3,045 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.1 58.5 62.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.3 -6.2 -0.1   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,095 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 70.5 22.1 6.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.9 85.4 3.2 – Net Position: 38,714 -40,501 1,787 – Gross Longs: 45,076 14,132 3,826 – Gross Shorts: 6,362 54,633 2,039 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.1 to 1 0.3 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.4 11.8 85.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 8.2 -12.2   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of 849 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 43 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 82.9 1.2 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.7 8.2 9.4 – Net Position: 849 -817 -32 – Gross Longs: 9,723 141 1,072 – Gross Shorts: 8,874 958 1,104 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 3.6 12.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.0 -23.6 -6.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee - 02.06.2022

Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee - 02.06.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 02.06.2022 01:00
Join trader, property investor, and bestselling author Stuart McPhee as he delivers his first Trading Week Ahead Live of June. Watch him as he starts off the week by summarising the state of the markets in Forex, Indices, and Commodities. Then prepare yourself as he shares potential trade ideas and opportunities in play for the coming week.  JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 8th June 2022! Would you like help to understand the reasons behind the moves made in this week’s markets? Join Stuart and the rest of the Trade Zone community on Wednesday 8th June, at 7PM AEST (10AM BST). Watch as he gives you his first mid-week Live Market Update of the Month. Revisiting the week’s earlier trade ideas from Monday’s Trading week Ahead, Stuart updates his insight, breaking down the developments and moves made, and predicts what may happen as the weekend approaches. Register Now At the end of the session, there will be an opportunity to direct all your market, strategy, and trade-related questions to the expert in a live Q&A. Get the answers needed to trade CFDs. The Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and Stuart McPhee this week on the Trade Zone as we explore the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee appeared first on Eightcap.
The Swing Overview – Week 20 2022

The Swing Overview – Week 20 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 02.06.2022 16:36
The Swing Overview – Week 20 The markets remain volatile and fragile, as shown by the VIX fear index, which has again surpassed the level 30 points. However, equity indices are at interesting supports and there could be some short-term recovery. The euro has bounced off its support in anticipation of tighter monetary policy and the gold is holding its price tag above $1,800 per troy ounce. Is the gold back in investors' favor again? Macroeconomic data The week started with a set of worse data from the Chinese economy, which showed that industrial production contracted by 2.9% year-on-year basis and the retail sales fell by 11.1%. The data shows the latest measures for the country's current COVID-19 outbreak are taking a toll on the economy. To support the slowing economy, China cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.15% on Friday morning, more than analysts expected. While this will not be enough to stave off current downside risks, markets may respond to expectation of more easing in the future. On a positive note, data from the US showed retail sales rose by 0.9% in April and industrial production rose by 1.1% in April. Inflation data in Europe was important. It showed that inflation in the euro area slowed down a little, reaching 7.4% in April compared to 7.5% in March. In Canada, on the other hand, the inflation continued to rise, reaching 6.8% (6.7% in March) and in the UK inflation was 9% in April (7% in the previous month). Several factors are contributing to the higher inflation figures: the ongoing war in Ukraine, problems in logistics chains and the effects of the lockdown in China. Concerns about the impact of higher inflation are showing up in the bond market. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield has come down from the 3.2% it reached on 9 May and is currently at 2.8%. This means that demand for bonds is rising and they are once again becoming an asset for times of uncertainty.  Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on a daily chart   Equity indices on supports Global equities fell significantly in the past week, reaching significant price supports. Thus, there could be some form of short-term bounce. Although a cautious rally began on Thursday, which was then boosted by China's decision to cut interest rates in the early hours of Friday, there is still plenty of fear among investors and according to Louis Dudley of Federated Hermes, cash holdings have reached its highest level since September 2001, suggesting strong bearish sentiment. Supply chain problems have been highlighted by companies such as Cisco Systems, which has warned of persistent parts shortages. That knocked its shares down by 13.7%. The drop made it the latest big-stock company to post its biggest decline in more than a decade last week. The main risks that continue to cause volatility and great uncertainty are thus leading investors to buy "safe" assets such as the US bonds and the Swiss franc. Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart From a technical analysis perspective, the US SP 500 index continues to move in a downtrend as the market has formed a lower low while being below both the SMA 100 and EMA 50 moving averages on the H4 and daily charts. The nearest resistance is 4,080 - 4,100. The next resistance is at 4,140 and especially 4,293 - 4,300. Support is at 3,860 - 3,900 level. German DAX index The index continues to move in a downtrend along with the major world indices. The price has reached the support which is at 13,680 – 13,700 and the moving average EMA 50 on the H4 chart is above the SMA 100. This could indicate a short-term signal for some upward correction. However, the main trend according to the daily chart is still downwards. The nearest resistance is at 14,260 - 14,330 level. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The euro has bounced off its support The EUR/USD currency pair benefited last week from the US dollar moving away from its 20-year highs while on the euro, investors are expecting a tightening economy and a rise in interest rates, which the ECB has not risen yet as one of the few banks. Figure 4: The EURUSD on H4 and daily chart   Significant support is at the price around 1.0350 - 1.040. Current resistance is at 1.650 - 1.700.   The Gold in investors' attention again The gold has underperformed over the past month, falling by 10% since April when the price reached USD 2,000 per ounce. But there is now strong risk aversion in the markets, as indicated by the stock markets, which have fallen. The gold, on the other hand, has started to rise. Inflation fears are a possible reason, and investors have begun to accumulate the gold for protection against rising prices. The second reason is that the gold is inversely correlated with the US dollar. The dollar has come down from its 20-year highs, which has allowed the gold to bounce off its support.  Figure 5: The gold on H4 and daily chart The first resistance is at $1,860 per ounce. The support is at $1,830 - $1,840 per ounce. The next support is then at $1,805 - $1,807 and especially at $1,800 per ounce.
COT Week 22 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed led by Heating Oil, Gasoline

COT Week 22 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed led by Heating Oil, Gasoline

Invest Macro Invest Macro 04.06.2022 21:33
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets also had lower contracts. Leading the gains for energy were Heating Oil (6,319 contracts), Gasoline (1,265 contracts) and Natural Gas (1,202 contracts). Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-1,785 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (-1,583 contracts) with Bloomberg Commodity Index (-1,048 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index is above its midpoint for the past 3 years while all the other markets are below the 50 percent level. Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that heating oil, natural gas and WTI crude have had rising scores over the past six weeks. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-31-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,787,928 9 332,976 10 -373,761 91 40,785 72 Gold 513,722 18 172,589 5 -200,056 95 27,467 32 Silver 147,301 14 13,997 15 -23,861 99 9,864 6 Copper 189,923 19 -18,025 29 15,425 70 2,600 40 Palladium 6,538 1 -3,133 4 3,221 95 -88 39 Platinum 67,964 35 2,363 7 -6,501 96 4,138 20 Natural Gas 1,115,815 7 -110,368 45 59,679 50 50,689 100 Brent 181,699 25 -40,872 43 38,941 58 1,931 35 Heating Oil 248,966 15 121 43 -17,967 52 17,846 60 Soybeans 753,373 34 186,078 71 -158,757 34 -27,321 25 Corn 1,564,217 32 404,200 82 -353,348 22 -50,852 14 Coffee 214,170 8 43,015 76 -45,757 28 2,742 17 Sugar 848,463 11 201,680 78 -240,752 23 39,072 56 Wheat 331,136 11 22,309 48 -18,647 33 -3,662 91   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 332,976 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 334,761 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.6 34.8 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.0 55.7 2.7 – Net Position: 332,976 -373,761 40,785 – Gross Longs: 421,683 622,867 89,200 – Gross Shorts: 88,707 996,628 48,415 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 9.9 91.0 72.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.9 -8.7 -3.9   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,289 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.7 54.0 4.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.2 32.6 3.2 – Net Position: -40,872 38,941 1,931 – Gross Longs: 26,712 98,147 7,700 – Gross Shorts: 67,584 59,206 5,769 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.6 58.0 35.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.3 2.1 -6.9   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -110,368 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -111,570 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.5 37.4 6.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.4 32.0 2.3 – Net Position: -110,368 59,679 50,689 – Gross Longs: 228,487 417,276 75,815 – Gross Shorts: 338,855 357,597 25,126 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 3.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.5 49.6 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.9 -7.1 6.6   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 33,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,425 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.7 53.9 7.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.8 68.9 3.7 – Net Position: 33,690 -46,032 12,342 – Gross Longs: 76,089 165,784 23,735 – Gross Shorts: 42,399 211,816 11,393 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.4 91.0 94.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.0 4.9 26.7   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,198 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.4 49.7 16.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.4 56.9 9.5 – Net Position: 121 -17,967 17,846 – Gross Longs: 43,360 123,782 41,618 – Gross Shorts: 43,239 141,749 23,772 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.6 52.1 60.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.5 -7.4 -7.8   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -10,561 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,513 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 63.6 28.5 1.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 93.7 0.0 0.4 – Net Position: -10,561 10,027 534 – Gross Longs: 22,382 10,027 679 – Gross Shorts: 32,943 0 145 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 inf to 1 4.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.1 31.9 38.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.8 7.7 -7.6   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 22 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Positions mostly lower led by Corn & Sugar

COT Week 22 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Positions mostly lower led by Corn & Sugar

Invest Macro Invest Macro 04.06.2022 21:40
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Soft Commodities speculator bets were mostly lower again this week as only three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other eight markets had lower positions. Leading the gains for the soft commodities was Coffee (5,943 contracts) and Lean Hogs (1,859 contracts) with Cocoa (1,570 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-23,648 contracts) and Sugar (-7,807 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-4,455 contracts), Wheat (-4,035 contracts), Live Cattle (-3,207 contracts), Soybeans (-2,290 contracts), Cotton (-1,836 contracts) and Soybean Meal (-1,153 contracts) also coming in with lower bets on the week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that most of the softs markets are above their midpoints (50 percent) for the past 3 years as the soft commodities have been highly bid and have had strong speculator sentiment. Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that despite most of the softs markets having high speculator strength scores, there has been a cool-off for these markets over the past six weeks. Live cattle and lean hogs have seen the most weakness over the past six weeks followed by Cocoa and Soybean Meal. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-31-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,787,928 9 332,976 10 -373,761 91 40,785 72 Gold 513,722 18 172,589 5 -200,056 95 27,467 32 Silver 147,301 14 13,997 15 -23,861 99 9,864 6 Copper 189,923 19 -18,025 29 15,425 70 2,600 40 Palladium 6,538 1 -3,133 4 3,221 95 -88 39 Platinum 67,964 35 2,363 7 -6,501 96 4,138 20 Natural Gas 1,115,815 7 -110,368 45 59,679 50 50,689 100 Brent 181,699 25 -40,872 43 38,941 58 1,931 35 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 753,373 34 186,078 71 -158,757 34 -27,321 25 Corn 1,564,217 32 404,200 82 -353,348 22 -50,852 14 Coffee 214,170 8 43,015 76 -45,757 28 2,742 17 Sugar 848,463 11 201,680 78 -240,752 23 39,072 56 Wheat 331,136 11 22,309 48 -18,647 33 -3,662 91   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 404,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -23,648 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 427,848 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.3 42.1 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.4 64.6 12.2 – Net Position: 404,200 -353,348 -50,852 – Gross Longs: 551,849 657,849 140,307 – Gross Shorts: 147,649 1,011,197 191,159 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 81.7 21.6 13.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.3 14.6 -3.7   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 201,680 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 209,487 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.6 45.1 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.8 73.5 5.9 – Net Position: 201,680 -240,752 39,072 – Gross Longs: 259,634 382,461 89,391 – Gross Shorts: 57,954 623,213 50,319 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 78.1 22.5 56.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.8 10.4 -20.9   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,072 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.5 51.5 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.4 72.9 3.1 – Net Position: 43,015 -45,757 2,742 – Gross Longs: 50,242 110,322 9,389 – Gross Shorts: 7,227 156,079 6,647 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.0 27.7 17.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.0 -0.3 -9.0   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 186,078 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 188,368 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.6 47.3 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.9 68.3 10.2 – Net Position: 186,078 -158,757 -27,321 – Gross Longs: 237,836 356,115 49,891 – Gross Shorts: 51,758 514,872 77,212 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.9 34.4 24.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.3 4.6 -3.6   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 75,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,455 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,496 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.4 47.5 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.8 71.6 4.8 – Net Position: 75,041 -92,287 17,246 – Gross Longs: 105,091 181,857 35,597 – Gross Shorts: 30,050 274,144 18,351 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.7 40.2 77.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.3 21.0 -18.4   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 80,754 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,153 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,907 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.7 44.2 13.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.9 73.7 5.5 – Net Position: 80,754 -109,384 28,630 – Gross Longs: 106,453 163,966 48,928 – Gross Shorts: 25,699 273,350 20,298 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.4 26.1 81.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.4 23.7 -17.4   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 19,540 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,747 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.2 40.6 11.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.7 46.8 11.9 – Net Position: 19,540 -18,566 -974 – Gross Longs: 102,315 121,350 34,613 – Gross Shorts: 82,775 139,916 35,587 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.9 87.9 78.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -43.9 37.4 26.6   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 9,217 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,358 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.6 42.0 9.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.8 43.2 13.3 – Net Position: 9,217 -2,209 -7,008 – Gross Longs: 57,323 81,465 18,708 – Gross Shorts: 48,106 83,674 25,716 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.8 90.9 60.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -36.8 42.6 -11.8   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 70,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,836 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,520 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.5 37.9 8.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.2 76.0 3.3 – Net Position: 70,684 -80,864 10,180 – Gross Longs: 85,974 80,446 17,230 – Gross Shorts: 15,290 161,310 7,050 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.7 30.7 76.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.2 10.1 -17.8   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 10,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,583 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.4 43.0 5.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.1 47.7 4.2 – Net Position: 10,153 -14,322 4,169 – Gross Longs: 92,946 131,539 16,931 – Gross Shorts: 82,793 145,861 12,762 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.6 72.0 38.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.7 28.0 -25.8   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 22,309 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,344 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.4 35.5 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.7 41.1 11.0 – Net Position: 22,309 -18,647 -3,662 – Gross Longs: 113,964 117,565 32,778 – Gross Shorts: 91,655 136,212 36,440 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.1 33.1 91.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.2 2.5 -4.4   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 22 Charts: Bonds Speculator positions lower across the board

COT Week 22 Charts: Bonds Speculator positions lower across the board

Invest Macro Invest Macro 04.06.2022 21:50
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. COT bonds market speculator bets were lower this week as all eight bond markets we cover had lower positioning this week. Leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the 5-Year Bond (-97,261 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (-92,825 contracts) with the Eurodollar (-22,436 contracts), Fed Funds (-17,284 contracts), 10-Year Bond (-13,783 contracts), Long US Bond (-8,741 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (-6,442 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-1,383 contracts) also coming in with lower bets on the week.   Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that most of the bond markets are below their midpoints (50 percent) for the past 3 years.  The US Treasury Bond, 2-Year and the Ultra US Bond have all gone above the midpoint and the US Treasury Bond has now entered extreme bullish levels as compared to its range over the past 3 years. Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows a mixed picture with half the bond markets rising over the past six weeks and half not. Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend May-31-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index Eurodollar 10,374,105 31 -2,855,216 0 3,260,722 99 -405,506 15 FedFunds 1,907,235 69 25,207 43 -17,303 58 -7,904 40 2-Year 2,219,497 19 -128,118 56 193,103 62 -64,985 21 Long T-Bond 1,212,023 51 19,761 91 1,627 21 -21,388 36 10-Year 3,470,808 28 -238,907 36 411,183 71 -172,276 39 5-Year 3,804,715 40 -217,788 45 367,355 58 -149,567 40   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,855,216 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -22,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,832,780 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.2 75.4 3.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.7 44.0 7.5 – Net Position: -2,855,216 3,260,722 -405,506 – Gross Longs: 332,811 7,825,376 371,699 – Gross Shorts: 3,188,027 4,564,654 777,205 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.4 99.3 15.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.5 4.8 6.9   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of 25,207 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,284 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,491 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.2 75.9 1.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 76.8 2.4 – Net Position: 25,207 -17,303 -7,904 – Gross Longs: 117,407 1,448,066 37,077 – Gross Shorts: 92,200 1,465,369 44,981 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.7 57.8 39.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.8 -1.4 11.0   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -128,118 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -92,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,293 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.9 77.2 6.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.6 68.5 9.4 – Net Position: -128,118 193,103 -64,985 – Gross Longs: 263,530 1,714,483 143,470 – Gross Shorts: 391,648 1,521,380 208,455 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.4 62.1 21.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.2 -5.1 12.2   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -217,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -97,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -120,527 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.1 81.4 7.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.9 71.7 11.4 – Net Position: -217,788 367,355 -149,567 – Gross Longs: 348,119 3,096,723 285,676 – Gross Shorts: 565,907 2,729,368 435,243 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.0 58.1 39.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.5 -15.9 16.3   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -238,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -225,124 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.1 79.6 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.0 67.8 14.0 – Net Position: -238,907 411,183 -172,276 – Gross Longs: 245,557 2,764,399 313,090 – Gross Shorts: 484,464 2,353,216 485,366 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.1 70.7 38.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.2 -13.1 3.9   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -105,367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,925 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.8 81.8 11.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.4 64.7 20.4 – Net Position: -105,367 210,588 -105,221 – Gross Longs: 59,643 1,010,524 147,144 – Gross Shorts: 165,010 799,936 252,365 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.4 94.3 52.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 5.0 5.2   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of 19,761 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,502 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.9 75.9 13.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.3 75.8 14.7 – Net Position: 19,761 1,627 -21,388 – Gross Longs: 120,014 920,309 157,340 – Gross Shorts: 100,253 918,682 178,728 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.0 20.6 35.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.1 -6.3 -8.8   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -309,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,383 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -307,895 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.2 83.4 11.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.2 61.1 9.9 – Net Position: -309,278 287,591 21,687 – Gross Longs: 41,190 1,074,846 148,794 – Gross Shorts: 350,468 787,255 127,107 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.0 55.7 43.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.5 -11.4 -3.5   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Metals Speculators continue to decrease their Gold & Silver bullish bets

COT Metals Speculators continue to decrease their Gold & Silver bullish bets

Invest Macro Invest Macro 04.06.2022 22:22
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Metals large speculator bets were mostly higher this week as three out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for metals was Copper (1,608 contracts) with Platinum (878 contracts) and Palladium (339 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Gold (-11,224 contracts) while Silver (-106 contracts) also registered lower bets on the week. Gold positions dropped by over -11,000 contracts this week and have now been lower in nine out of the past twelve weeks. The gold position has declined by a total of -101,799 contracts over that 12-week time period. This weakness has now pushed the gold speculator net standing to the lowest level of the past seventeen weeks, dating back to February 1st. Silver bets, meanwhile, have fallen for six consecutive weeks and by a total of -32,432 contracts over that period. Silver speculators have bailed out of their bullish positions since early March 3rd when the net position hit a 43-week high at +52,297 contracts. Currently, the net position has fallen all the way down to +13,997 contracts this week which marks the lowest level in the past 155 weeks, dating back to June 11th of 2019. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that most of the metals markets are in extreme bearish levels (except Gold which is just above the 20 percent threshold). Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows the recent weakness of all of the metals market. Silver, Gold and Copper have fallen particularly hard in six weeks. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-31-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,787,928 9 332,976 10 -373,761 91 40,785 72 Gold 513,722 18 172,589 5 -200,056 95 27,467 32 Silver 147,301 14 13,997 15 -23,861 99 9,864 6 Copper 189,923 19 -18,025 29 15,425 70 2,600 40 Palladium 6,538 1 -3,133 4 3,221 95 -88 39 Platinum 67,964 35 2,363 7 -6,501 96 4,138 20 Natural Gas 1,115,815 7 -110,368 45 59,679 50 50,689 100 Brent 181,699 25 -40,872 43 38,941 58 1,931 35 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 753,373 34 186,078 71 -158,757 34 -27,321 25 Corn 1,564,217 32 404,200 82 -353,348 22 -50,852 14 Coffee 214,170 8 43,015 76 -45,757 28 2,742 17 Sugar 848,463 11 201,680 78 -240,752 23 39,072 56 Wheat 331,136 11 22,309 48 -18,647 33 -3,662 91   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 172,589 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,224 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 183,813 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 52.5 26.3 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.9 65.3 3.7 – Net Position: 172,589 -200,056 27,467 – Gross Longs: 269,459 135,360 46,639 – Gross Shorts: 96,870 335,416 19,172 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.8 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.4 94.9 32.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -35.1 38.6 -27.6   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 13,997 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,103 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.7 38.3 16.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.2 54.5 9.9 – Net Position: 13,997 -23,861 9,864 – Gross Longs: 55,545 56,447 24,482 – Gross Shorts: 41,548 80,308 14,618 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.1 99.3 6.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -43.1 50.9 -38.3   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -18,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,633 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.1 52.5 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.6 44.4 7.7 – Net Position: -18,025 15,425 2,600 – Gross Longs: 53,404 99,692 17,184 – Gross Shorts: 71,429 84,267 14,584 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.4 70.1 40.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.5 30.1 -39.7   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 878 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,485 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.1 40.6 11.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 36.6 50.2 5.7 – Net Position: 2,363 -6,501 4,138 – Gross Longs: 27,226 27,591 8,034 – Gross Shorts: 24,863 34,092 3,896 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.7 96.1 19.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.4 10.1 -29.9   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,133 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 339 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,472 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.3 70.6 15.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 60.2 21.3 17.1 – Net Position: -3,133 3,221 -88 – Gross Longs: 803 4,614 1,029 – Gross Shorts: 3,936 1,393 1,117 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.3 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.7 94.8 38.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.4 9.5 -41.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee - 06.06.2022

Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee - 06.06.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 05.06.2022 20:00
Join trader, property investor, and bestselling author Stuart McPhee as he delivers his first Trading Week Ahead Live of June. Watch him as he starts off the week by summarising the state of the markets in Forex, Indices, and Commodities. Then prepare yourself as he shares potential trade ideas and opportunities in play for the coming week. JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 8th June 2022! Would you like help to understand the reasons behind the moves made in this week’s markets? Join Stuart and the rest of the Trade Zone community on Wednesday 8th June, at 7PM AEST (10AM BST). Watch as he gives you his first mid-week Live Market Update of the Month. Revisiting the week’s earlier trade ideas from Monday’s Trading week Ahead, Stuart updates his insight, breaking down the developments and moves made, and predicts what may happen as the weekend approaches. Register Now At the end of the session, there will be an opportunity to direct all your market, strategy, and trade-related questions to the expert in a live Q&A. Get the answers needed to trade CFDs. The Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and Stuart McPhee this week on the Trade Zone as we explore the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee appeared first on Eightcap.
Is Huge Volatility Coming To EURUSD? FX: Euro To US Dollar - What Are Possible Scenarios?

Euro Currency Speculators continue to boost their bullish bets for 4th Week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 04.06.2022 22:45
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further gains in bullish bets for the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculators boosted their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and for the sixth time in the past ten weeks. Over the past four-week time-frame, Euro bets have risen by a total of +58,650 contracts, going from -6,378 net positions on May 3rd to a total of +52,272 net positions this week. This week marks the highest Euro speculator standing in the past twelve weeks. The recent improvement in Euro positions has taken place with a very strong change in sentiment as just four weeks ago the overall position had fallen into bearish territory. The Euro sentiment has been so bad that analysts have been making predictions for an inevitable decline of the Euro into parity versus the dollar. However, recently there has been rising expectations that the European Central Bank will be more hawkish towards interest rates in the near future (despite the weak outlook for EU GDP growth) and will end their negative interest rate policy. Over the past few weeks, the EUR/USD exchange rate has rebounded after falling to a multi-year low of 1.0350 in early May. This week the EUR/USD hit a weekly high of 1.0787 before closing at the 1.0719 exchange rate. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (13,342 contracts), Brazil real (6,602 contracts), British pound sterling (6,267 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,680 contracts), Mexican peso (5,657 contracts), Japanese yen (5,005 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (597 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-501 contracts), Australian dollar (-3,236 contracts), Swiss franc (-785 contracts) and Bitcoin (-446 contracts). Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that most of the currency markets are below their midpoint (50 percent) of the last 3 years. The Brazil Real, US Dollar Index and Bitcoin are currently in extreme bullish levels. Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows the recent strong weakness in the commodity currencies (AUD, NZD and CAD) as well as the Swiss franc. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-31-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index USD Index 63,863 98 37,538 91 -41,327 6 3,789 58 EUR 706,317 85 52,272 51 -85,186 52 32,914 29 GBP 252,881 72 -74,105 21 87,172 81 -13,067 29 JPY 239,080 81 -94,439 11 105,049 87 -10,610 32 CHF 49,579 40 -20,458 10 29,851 87 -9,393 26 CAD 135,929 21 -7,007 34 -327 68 7,334 44 AUD 153,661 48 -48,682 40 51,128 57 -2,446 46 NZD 55,134 53 -18,724 40 21,374 63 -2,650 21 MXN 212,843 55 35,449 42 -40,143 56 4,694 63 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 74,146 73 45,316 95 -47,670 5 2,354 92 Bitcoin 10,900 58 403 92 -503 0 100 15   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 37,538 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,039 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.9 3.7 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.1 68.4 2.8 – Net Position: 37,538 -41,327 3,789 – Gross Longs: 54,859 2,355 5,605 – Gross Shorts: 17,321 43,682 1,816 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.2 to 1 0.1 to 1 3.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.5 5.9 58.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.6 -9.0 5.2   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 52,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 13,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,930 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.5 51.7 12.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.1 63.8 7.7 – Net Position: 52,272 -85,186 32,914 – Gross Longs: 236,553 365,434 87,138 – Gross Shorts: 184,281 450,620 54,224 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.0 51.9 28.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.4 -10.1 24.0   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -74,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,372 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.2 76.6 7.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.5 42.2 12.9 – Net Position: -74,105 87,172 -13,067 – Gross Longs: 30,788 193,786 19,446 – Gross Shorts: 104,893 106,614 32,513 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 20.6 81.2 28.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.9 8.4 1.9   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -94,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,005 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,444 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.4 82.2 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.9 38.3 13.9 – Net Position: -94,439 105,049 -10,610 – Gross Longs: 15,201 196,584 22,605 – Gross Shorts: 109,640 91,535 33,215 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.7 86.9 31.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.9 -12.1 24.5   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,673 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.3 75.6 17.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.6 15.4 36.3 – Net Position: -20,458 29,851 -9,393 – Gross Longs: 2,641 37,473 8,596 – Gross Shorts: 23,099 7,622 17,989 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 4.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.3 87.0 25.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -21.5 10.4 7.5   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,687 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.5 51.5 24.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.6 51.7 18.6 – Net Position: -7,007 -327 7,334 – Gross Longs: 30,520 70,006 32,660 – Gross Shorts: 37,527 70,333 25,326 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.7 68.5 44.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.7 32.5 -21.5   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -48,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,236 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,446 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.4 63.1 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.1 29.9 14.4 – Net Position: -48,682 51,128 -2,446 – Gross Longs: 32,897 97,031 19,659 – Gross Shorts: 81,579 45,903 22,105 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.7 57.0 46.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.4 22.6 -25.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -18,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,321 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.6 76.2 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.6 37.4 9.8 – Net Position: -18,724 21,374 -2,650 – Gross Longs: 9,179 42,010 2,762 – Gross Shorts: 27,903 20,636 5,412 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.8 63.3 21.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -32.0 32.2 -20.4   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 35,449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,792 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.8 41.8 3.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.1 60.6 1.3 – Net Position: 35,449 -40,143 4,694 – Gross Longs: 114,480 88,894 7,396 – Gross Shorts: 79,031 129,037 2,702 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.5 56.1 62.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.9 -5.8 0.6   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 45,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,602 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,714 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 71.3 22.4 5.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.2 86.7 2.7 – Net Position: 45,316 -47,670 2,354 – Gross Longs: 52,896 16,595 4,372 – Gross Shorts: 7,580 64,265 2,018 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.0 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.9 4.8 92.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.7 -0.6 -1.6     Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 849 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.6 1.5 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.9 6.1 8.6 – Net Position: 403 -503 100 – Gross Longs: 8,680 159 1,033 – Gross Shorts: 8,277 662 933 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.5 23.2 15.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.3 -20.4 -6.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Now with Purple Trading: VIX volatility index as a tradable CFD futures symbol

Now with Purple Trading: VIX volatility index as a tradable CFD futures symbol

Purple Trading Purple Trading 06.06.2022 08:55
Now with Purple Trading: VIX volatility index as a tradable CFD futures symbol The volatility or market uncertainty index (VIX) is an invaluable tool used by many when analyzing markets. However, its trading also holds great potential. That's why we have decided to include it alongside our CFD futures symbols. Read this article and find out how and when to trade VIX as an CFD futures symbol. What is the VIX index and what does it indicate The Volatility Index (VIX), as the name suggests, is an index that is used to measure the level of market nervousness, uncertainty, and volatility. For these reasons, it is also sometimes called a fear gauge or fear index. The higher the VIX index values get, the greater the uncertainty in the markets and vice versa. However, it is very important to remember that the VIX index is a forward-looking index, so it shows the expected, not actual, market uncertainty.   How the VIX index is calculated VIX index measures 30 days of expected volatility of S&P 500 index, it does so by using S&P 500 options (SPX) listed on CBOE exchange as an input. VIX takes together all SPX call and put options and compares the changing demand and price between them.   Relationship between the VIX index and the markets The VIX index generally tracks the S&P 500 index in an inverse manner. That is, if the stock markets (S&P 500) are turbulent and investor nervousness/fear increases, the same can be observed for the VIX index. On the other hand, if stock prices are on the rise, the VIX index generally declines or advances sideways.   Meet: VIX.f - tradable CFD futures instrument Similar to other indices, the VIX is not tradable on its own and needs an investment vehicle to go with it. And that is what VIX.f is - a tradable continuous CFD futures instrument that behaves just like our other continuous CFD futures products. Its price is based on the underlying asset, which in this case is a specific VIX futures contract. Continuous in this case means that before each futures contract expires, there is an automatic rollover of the position. This will result in selling of old contracts and the buying of additional nearest futures contracts. It is also important to note that since this is a CFD instrument, you don’t become the owner of VIX.f when trading it. You only speculate on its price. How to trade VIX.f futures symbol VIX.f CFD futures is a very versatile symbol that can help traders and investors in several different situations:   Buy/long in case of an expected increase in volatility or turbulence in the markets Risk management or hedging vehicle for investors - through the inverse relationship of the VIX and the S&P 500 Option to open a short position in case of expecting a positive economic development in markets Overall, it should be noted that VIX.f futures is not recommended to be traded in a buy and hold manner, but rather as a short-term investment.Symbol specification: Symbol specification Name in Platform VIX.f Leverage ESMA 1:10 Leverage PRO 1:10 Trade hours (GMT+3) Monday to Friday 1:00 – 24:00  i Check out the current trading hours and hours changes Commission 10 USD/lot Currency USD Tick size 0.01 Tick value 0.1 Volume step 1 Min trade 1 Max trade 50
We are expanding our futures offer. You can now trade SP500 index and orange juice

We are expanding our futures offer. You can now trade SP500 index and orange juice

Purple Trading Purple Trading 06.06.2022 11:30
We are expanding our futures offer. You can now trade SP500 index and orange juice At Purple Trading, we are expanding our offer of CFD futures symbols by 2 more. The first one is the notorious S&P 500 index, followed by the futures contract for frozen orange juice concentrate. S&P 500 as a tradable futures symbol: US500.f This is a derivative contract that allows you to speculate on the price of the S&P 500 index. US500.f is therefore a continuous CFD futures symbol which price is based on the underlying asset. Of course, it should be noted here for the sake of argument that, since it is a CFD instrument, you do not become the owner of the US500.f when trading it. Rather you only speculate on its price. Continuous in this case means that before each futures contract expires, there is an automatic rollover of the position. This will result in selling of old contracts and the buying of additional nearest futures contracts. These contracts are split by quarter, specifically March, June, September and December. Trading methods US500.f   As with every CFD instrument, with US500.f you can speculate on either rise and/or fall in its price. It can also be a valuable alternative to other CFD futures products we offer at Purple Trading (for example, the VIX volatility index, with which the S&P 500 has an inverse relationship). Furthermore, clients do not pay swap fees for holding a position on this instrument, but only the standard $10/lot fee as with all other CFD futures instruments. However, they must not forget about rollovers. Clients can also use this instrument to hedge stock portfolios or effectively expand client’s exposure to the US market. US500.f specification:   US500.f specification Name in Platform US500.f Leverage ESMA 1:10 Leverage PRO 1:10 Trading hours (GMT+3) Monday to Friday 1:00 – 24:00  i Check out the current trading hours and hours changes Commission 10 USD/lot Currency USD Tick size 0.01 Tick value 0.01 Volume step 1 Min trade 1 Max trade 50 Frozen orange juice concentrate - Orangej.f If you're a fan of the movie Trading places with Eddie Murphy, you'll remember the scene with the shorting of the orange juice concentrate futures. Guess what, now you can find exactly the same product among our CFD futures instruments! Orangej.f specification   1 lot = 2000 pound of frozen concentrated orange juice market (taken directly from GBE) Contracts every two months (Jan, March, May, Jul, Sep, Nov) Traded on ICE (US) exchange   Orangej.f specification Name in Platform Orangej.f Leverage ESMA 1:10 Leverage PRO 1:10 Trading hours (GMT+3) Monday to Friday 15:00 – 21:00  i Check out the current trading hours and hours changes Commission 10 USD/lot Currency USD Tick size 0.01 Tick value 0.2 Volume step 1 Min trade 1 Max trade 50
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 31/5/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 31/5/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 07.06.2022 15:38
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 31/5/2022 Total net speculator positions on the USD index fell by 501 contracts last week to 37,538 contracts. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,184 contracts and an increase in short positions by 1,685 contracts. Significant fact is the further bullish movement in speculators' positions for the euro currency futures contracts. This week, the euro speculators increased their bullish positions for the fourth consecutive week and the sixth time in the last ten weeks. Over the past four weeks, speculators' total net positions in the euro have increased by a total of +58,650 contracts, from -6,378 net positions on May 3 to a total of +52,272 net positions last week. Total net positions for the euro are the highest in twelve weeks. The recent improvement in euro positions has come with a very significant change in sentiment, as just four weeks ago the total position had fallen into bearish territory. Sentiment in the euro was so bad that analysts were talking about the inevitable decline of the euro to parity against the dollar. Recently, however, expectations have been growing that the European Central Bank will become more hawkish on interest rates in the near future and end its negative interest rate policy, causing the euro to strengthen. In addition to the euro, speculators' total net positions rose on the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen. On the Australian dollar and the Swiss franc, total net positions fell last week. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF May 31, 2022 37538 52272 -74105 -48682 -18724 -94439 -7007 -20458 May 24, 2022 38039 38930 -80372 -45446 -19321 -99444 -12687 -19673 May 17, 2022 36213 20339 -79241 -44642 -17767 -102309 -14496 -16592 May 10, 2022 34776 16529 -79598 -41714 -12996 -110454 -5407 -15763 May 03, 2022 33071 -6378 -73813 -28516 -6610 -100794 9029 -13907 Apr 26, 2022 33879 22201 -69621 -27651 66 -95535 20881 -12869   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com     The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 706317 236553 184281 52272 -2621 -519 -13861 13342 Bullish May 24, 2022 708938 237072 198142 38930 2226 6302 -12289 18591 Bullish May 17, 2022 706712 230770 210431 20339 1666 2540 -1270 3810 Bullish May 10 2022 705046 228230 211701 16529 10120 19781 3126 22907 Bullish May 03, 2022 694926 208449 214827 -6378 6477 -14544 14035 -28579 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 688449 222993 200792 22201 12510 1990 11090 -9100 Weak bullish         Total change 30378 15550 -5421 20971     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EUR/USD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 52,272 contracts last week, up by 13,342 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 519 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 13,861 contracts. This data suggests bullish sentiment as the total net positions are positive while there has been an increase. Open interest fell by 2,621 contracts in the last week. This shows that the move that occurred in the euro last week was not supported by the volume and it was therefore a weak price action. The price has reached the EMA 50 moving average on the daily chart, at which it is oscillating, showing that there is a resistance here. Long-term resistance: 1.0800 – 1.0840 Support: 1.0620 – 1-0630. The next support is in the zone 1.0340 – 1.0420.   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 252881 30788 104893 -74105 -983 4852 -1415 6267 Weak bearish May 24, 2022 253864 25936 106308 -80372 53 -677 454 -1131 Bearish May 17, 2022 253811 26613 105854 -79241 -10783 -2856 -3213 357 Weak bearish May 10, 2022 264594 29469 109067 -79598 -3902 -4067 1718 -5785 Bearish May 03, 2022 268496 33536 107349 -73813 -4296 -6900 -2708 -4192 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 272792 40436 110057 -69621 23263 3625 14332 -10707 Bearish         Total change 3352 -6023 9168 -15191     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBP/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to 74,105 contracts, up by 6,267 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 4,852 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 1,415 contracts. This indicates weak bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but at the same time there has been an increase in total net positions. The open interest fell by 983 contracts last week, indicating that the downward movement in the pound that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and it was therefore a weak price action. Long-term resistance: 1.2700 – 1.2760.    Support: 1.2160 – 1.2200.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 153661 32897 81579 -48682 -4954 -3682 -446 -3236 Bearish May 24, 2022 158615 36579 82025 -45446 -5194 -4894 -4090 -804 Bearish May 17, 2022 163809 41473 86115 -44642 10600 4604 7532 -2928 Bearish May 10, 2022 153209 36869 78583 -41714 952 -10126 3072 13198 Bearish May 03, 2022 152257 46995 75511 -28516 5167 -110 755 -865 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 147090 47105 74756 -27651 -219 7904 6718 1186 Weak bearish         Total change 6352 -6304 13541 -19845     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to 48,682 contracts, down by 3,236 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 3,682 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 446 contracts. This data suggests bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar, as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, while at the same time there has been a further decline in the past week. There was a decline in open interest of 4,954 contracts last week. This means that the upward movement that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and it was therefore weak price action. The price has currently reached the horizontal resistance at 0.7260 where a reaction occurred. If this resistance is  broken, a further bullish movement could continue. Long-term resistance: 0.7250-0.7260                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.6830-0.6850     The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 55134 9179 27903 -18724 -4145 -1570 -2167 597 Weak bullish May 24, 2022 59279 10749 30070 -19321 -1525 -4249 -2695 -1554 Bearish May 17, 2022 60804 14998 32765 -17767 4569 -205 4566 -4771 Bearish May 10, 2022 56235 15203 28199 -12996 5391 -2224 4162 -6386 Bearish May 03, 2022 50844 17427 24037 -6610 4334 -4658 2018 -6676 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 46510 22085 22019 66 5412 3004 3303 -299 Weak bullish         Total change 14036 -9902 9187 -19089     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached -18,724 contracts last week, having grown by 597 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,570 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 2,167 contracts. This data suggests that there has been a weakening of bearish sentiment on the New Zealand Dollar over the past week as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but there has also been an increase in total net positions. The open interest fell by 4,145 contracts last week.  The move in NZD/USD that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and therefore the move was weak. The NZD/USD has reached the resistance band at 0.6570 and also the EMA 50 moving average on the daily chart, which is a strong confluence and there has already been some bearish reaction there. If this resistance is broken, further strengthening could occur.  Long-term resistance: 0.6540 – 0.6560 Long-term support: 0.6220 – 0.6280     Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee - 09.06.2022

Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee - 09.06.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 09.06.2022 01:30
Join Stuart McPhee, trader, property investor, and bestselling author, as he gives you his Trading Week Ahead Live for the week. Watch him as he starts off the week by summarising the state of the markets in Forex, Indices, and Commodities. Then prepare yourself as he shares potential trade ideas and opportunities in play for the coming week.  JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 15th June 2022! Are you tired of analysing the market alone? Would you like to know how the market is taking shape this week? Register for Stuart’s mid-week Live Market Update. Join him on Wednesday 15th June, at 7PM AEST (10AM BST) as he looks back at the earlier market activity and opportunities since his Trading week Ahead. Stuart will then break down the developments and moves made and provide further insight on what may happen as the weekend approaches. Register Now At the end of the session, you will have the opportunity to direct all your market, strategy, and trade-related questions to the expert in a live Q&A. Learn what you need to trade CFDs safely. The Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and Stuart McPhee this week on the Trade Zone as we explore the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee appeared first on Eightcap.
COT Week 23 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed led by Brent Crude & Heating Oil

COT Week 23 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed led by Brent Crude & Heating Oil

Invest Macro Invest Macro 12.06.2022 15:16
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for energy markets was Brent Crude Oil (4,774 contracts) and Heating Oil (4,765 contracts) with Bloomberg Commodity Index (2,178 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-4,720 contracts) and Natural Gas (-3,974 contracts) with Gasoline (-3,202 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index is the highest above its midpoint for the past 3 years while Brent, Heating Oil and Natural Gas are slightly below the 50 percent level. Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Heating Oil and the Bloomberg Commodity Index bets have been rising the strongest over the past six weeks while Gasoline is moving the opposite way. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-07-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,790,618 10 328,256 8 -369,033 93 40,777 72 Gold 494,130 12 175,268 7 -199,886 95 24,618 18 Silver 148,294 15 17,404 5 -27,990 94 10,586 10 Copper 194,187 22 -3,714 40 879 60 2,835 42 Palladium 7,035 3 -3,461 2 3,581 97 -120 37 Platinum 65,295 31 5,933 12 -9,742 92 3,809 15 Natural Gas 1,127,731 10 -114,342 44 66,419 52 47,923 93 Brent 169,802 16 -36,098 51 34,208 50 1,890 35 Heating Oil 261,651 20 4,886 50 -24,428 45 19,542 66 Soybeans 760,444 35 176,644 68 -148,390 39 -28,254 23 Corn 1,557,167 31 391,264 80 -337,137 24 -54,127 12 Coffee 222,583 15 48,767 81 -51,363 23 2,596 16 Sugar 849,814 12 195,403 77 -234,496 24 39,093 56 Wheat 333,705 12 23,881 50 -19,863 31 -4,018 90   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 328,256 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,720 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 332,976 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.7 34.8 5.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.3 55.4 2.9 – Net Position: 328,256 -369,033 40,777 – Gross Longs: 423,882 622,320 92,501 – Gross Shorts: 95,626 991,353 51,724 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 8.2 92.9 72.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.3 -4.2 -2.1   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -36,098 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,872 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.3 51.5 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 36.6 31.4 3.3 – Net Position: -36,098 34,208 1,890 – Gross Longs: 26,009 87,488 7,434 – Gross Shorts: 62,107 53,280 5,544 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.6 50.2 34.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.1 -2.3 -14.1   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -114,342 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,368 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.8 37.2 6.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.0 31.3 2.6 – Net Position: -114,342 66,419 47,923 – Gross Longs: 235,073 419,847 76,779 – Gross Shorts: 349,415 353,428 28,856 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.3 51.8 93.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.9 -1.6 4.6   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 30,488 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,690 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.6 52.7 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.7 66.2 4.3 – Net Position: 30,488 -41,866 11,378 – Gross Longs: 75,841 162,330 24,623 – Gross Shorts: 45,353 204,196 13,245 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.2 95.2 88.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.9 6.4 16.0   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 121 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.3 49.5 17.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.4 58.9 10.1 – Net Position: 4,886 -24,428 19,542 – Gross Longs: 45,231 129,588 45,902 – Gross Shorts: 40,345 154,016 26,360 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.6 45.3 66.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.2 -9.7 -9.1   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -8,383 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,178 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,561 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.5 62.0 1.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.0 51.3 0.8 – Net Position: -8,383 7,865 518 – Gross Longs: 24,512 45,368 1,126 – Gross Shorts: 32,895 37,503 608 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.4 23.5 37.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.8 -10.2 -6.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 23 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Positions mostly higher lead by Soybean Meal & Live Cattle

COT Week 23 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Positions mostly higher lead by Soybean Meal & Live Cattle

Invest Macro Invest Macro 12.06.2022 15:46
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. The soft commodities market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as seven out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while four markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Soybean Meal (8,922 contracts) and Live Cattle (5,888 contracts) with Coffee (5,752 contracts), Cocoa (4,341 contracts), Soybean Oil (3,604 contracts), Wheat (1,572 contracts) and Lean Hogs (1,274 contracts) also showing a positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-12,936 contracts) and Soybeans (-9,434 contracts) with Sugar (-6,277 contracts) and Cotton (-2 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Corn and Coffee are in extreme-bullish levels currently. On the opposite position, Live Cattle and Lean Hogs hold extreme-bearish levels while most of the other markets are in strong bullish positions between 50 percent and 80 percent. Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that despite the strong strength scores in the blue chart previously, the trends have been cooling off mightily. This chart shows that only Coffee and Wheat have had rising scores over the past six weeks. Live Cattle and Lean Hogs have had strong declines in the trends over the past six weeks followed by Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil and Corn. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-07-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,790,618 10 328,256 8 -369,033 93 40,777 72 Gold 494,130 12 175,268 7 -199,886 95 24,618 18 Silver 148,294 15 17,404 5 -27,990 94 10,586 10 Copper 194,187 22 -3,714 40 879 60 2,835 42 Palladium 7,035 3 -3,461 2 3,581 97 -120 37 Platinum 65,295 31 5,933 12 -9,742 92 3,809 15 Natural Gas 1,127,731 10 -114,342 44 66,419 52 47,923 93 Brent 169,802 16 -36,098 51 34,208 50 1,890 35 Heating Oil 261,651 20 4,886 50 -24,428 45 19,542 66 Soybeans 760,444 35 176,644 68 -148,390 39 -28,254 23 Corn 1,557,167 31 391,264 80 -337,137 24 -54,127 12 Coffee 222,583 15 48,767 81 -51,363 23 2,596 16 Sugar 849,814 12 195,403 77 -234,496 24 39,093 56 Wheat 333,705 12 23,881 50 -19,863 31 -4,018 90   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 391,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,936 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 404,200 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.4 43.2 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.3 64.9 12.3 – Net Position: 391,264 -337,137 -54,127 – Gross Longs: 520,783 673,039 137,311 – Gross Shorts: 129,519 1,010,176 191,438 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.0 23.9 11.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.6 15.7 -2.2   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 195,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,277 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 201,680 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.7 45.1 10.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.7 72.7 6.0 – Net Position: 195,403 -234,496 39,093 – Gross Longs: 252,688 383,138 90,314 – Gross Shorts: 57,285 617,634 51,221 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.8 23.7 56.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.6 5.0 0.8   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 48,767 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,015 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.8 48.7 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.9 71.8 3.0 – Net Position: 48,767 -51,363 2,596 – Gross Longs: 57,417 108,343 9,164 – Gross Shorts: 8,650 159,706 6,568 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 81.0 22.6 16.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.0 -5.3 -11.4   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 176,644 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,434 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 186,078 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.2 47.3 6.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.0 66.8 10.2 – Net Position: 176,644 -148,390 -28,254 – Gross Longs: 229,895 359,587 49,303 – Gross Shorts: 53,251 507,977 77,557 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.9 39.2 23.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.3 8.8 -3.8   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 78,645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,041 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.9 48.2 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.2 72.1 5.0 – Net Position: 78,645 -95,258 16,613 – Gross Longs: 107,372 192,493 36,684 – Gross Shorts: 28,727 287,751 20,071 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.3 38.5 75.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.9 17.2 -1.2   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 89,676 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,922 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80,754 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.3 43.9 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 74.2 5.5 – Net Position: 89,676 -115,261 25,585 – Gross Longs: 107,791 167,306 46,628 – Gross Shorts: 18,115 282,567 21,043 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 77.4 23.0 65.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -14.8 14.0 -1.2   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,428 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,888 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,540 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.5 40.5 11.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.9 48.7 11.9 – Net Position: 25,428 -24,212 -1,216 – Gross Longs: 104,585 119,324 33,798 – Gross Shorts: 79,157 143,536 35,014 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 11.3 80.2 77.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -45.0 38.3 27.7   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 10,491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,217 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.3 41.7 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.9 43.3 13.6 – Net Position: 10,491 -3,090 -7,401 – Gross Longs: 59,207 81,583 19,271 – Gross Shorts: 48,716 84,673 26,672 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 18.2 89.8 58.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.8 27.8 -8.7   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 70,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,684 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.9 37.7 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.5 75.7 3.6 – Net Position: 70,682 -80,347 9,665 – Gross Longs: 86,609 79,718 17,332 – Gross Shorts: 15,927 160,065 7,667 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.4 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.7 31.0 73.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.1 7.6 -12.1   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,494 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,341 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,153 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.4 43.9 5.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.3 50.1 4.0 – Net Position: 14,494 -17,823 3,329 – Gross Longs: 89,997 125,905 14,861 – Gross Shorts: 75,503 143,728 11,532 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.8 68.6 29.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.0 11.3 -14.6   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 23,881 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,572 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,309 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.9 34.8 10.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.7 40.8 11.6 – Net Position: 23,881 -19,863 -4,018 – Gross Longs: 109,678 116,146 34,706 – Gross Shorts: 85,797 136,009 38,724 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.1 31.4 89.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.9 -3.5 1.2   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 23 Charts: Bond Speculator bets mostly falling this week led by 2-Year & 10-Year Bonds

COT Week 23 Charts: Bond Speculator bets mostly falling this week led by 2-Year & 10-Year Bonds

Invest Macro Invest Macro 12.06.2022 16:06
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Bond market speculator bets were mostly on the lower side this week as only three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while five markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for the COT bonds markets was the Eurodollar (208,714 contracts) and the Fed Funds (29,026 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bond (29,533 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the 2-Year Bond (-42,371 contracts) and the 10-Year Bond (-27,280 contracts) with the Long US Bond (-14,798 contracts), Ultra US Bond (-5,695 contracts) and the 5-Year Bond (-4,759 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Ultra US Treasury Bond and the US Treasury Bond are above their midpoint levels for the past 3 years while all the other markets are below the 50 percent level. The US Treasury Bond is actually in an extreme-bullish level currently while the Eurodollar and the Ultra 10-Year Note are both in extreme-bearish levels at the moment. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate the 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the 5-Year Bond and the Ultra US Treasury Bond have had the highest rising scores over the past six weeks. On the downside, the 10-Year Bond and the 2-Year Bond have shown the largest downward trends. Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-07-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index Eurodollar 10,409,834 32 -2,646,502 4 3,023,490 95 -376,988 21 FedFunds 1,568,823 44 54,233 46 -47,932 54 -6,301 44 2-Year 2,002,134 10 -170,489 48 225,040 69 -54,551 26 Long T-Bond 1,193,131 48 4,963 86 -5,633 18 670 53 10-Year 3,469,948 28 -266,187 32 426,524 73 -160,337 42 5-Year 3,784,732 39 -222,547 44 409,463 63 -186,916 30   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,646,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 208,714 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,855,216 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.5 74.1 3.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.0 45.0 7.4 – Net Position: -2,646,502 3,023,490 -376,988 – Gross Longs: 367,476 7,712,618 389,949 – Gross Shorts: 3,013,978 4,689,128 766,937 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.2 95.1 21.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.3 -3.5 14.9   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 54,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 29,026 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,207 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.6 74.5 2.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.1 77.5 3.0 – Net Position: 54,233 -47,932 -6,301 – Gross Longs: 149,853 1,168,089 40,470 – Gross Shorts: 95,620 1,216,021 46,771 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.3 54.1 43.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.9 -2.8 19.2   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -170,489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -42,371 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -128,118 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.0 79.8 7.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.5 68.6 9.9 – Net Position: -170,489 225,040 -54,551 – Gross Longs: 200,307 1,598,627 143,536 – Gross Shorts: 370,796 1,373,587 198,087 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.8 69.1 25.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -16.4 9.0 16.5   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -222,547 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -217,788 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.5 80.9 7.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.4 70.1 12.4 – Net Position: -222,547 409,463 -186,916 – Gross Longs: 359,715 3,061,190 283,380 – Gross Shorts: 582,262 2,651,727 470,296 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.2 63.2 29.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.1 -8.7 5.5   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -266,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -27,280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -238,907 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.6 81.0 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.3 68.7 13.5 – Net Position: -266,187 426,524 -160,337 – Gross Longs: 195,120 2,810,360 307,456 – Gross Shorts: 461,307 2,383,836 467,793 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.0 72.6 41.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.6 16.1 3.1   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -75,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 29,533 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,367 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.5 81.8 11.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.6 66.7 20.0 – Net Position: -75,834 187,134 -111,300 – Gross Longs: 67,884 1,015,640 137,608 – Gross Shorts: 143,718 828,506 248,908 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 9.1 88.3 48.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.5 -3.6 12.2   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,963 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,761 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.5 74.8 14.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.0 75.2 14.0 – Net Position: 4,963 -5,633 670 – Gross Longs: 112,838 892,073 168,164 – Gross Shorts: 107,875 897,706 167,494 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.2 18.3 53.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.9 -1.2 15.1   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -314,973 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -309,278 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.4 83.5 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.0 60.7 9.8 – Net Position: -314,973 290,771 24,202 – Gross Longs: 42,957 1,067,607 149,154 – Gross Shorts: 357,930 776,836 124,952 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.7 57.2 45.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.9 -8.7 -8.2   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 23 Charts: Precious Metals Speculator bets mostly higher lead by Copper & Platinum

COT Week 23 Charts: Precious Metals Speculator bets mostly higher lead by Copper & Platinum

Invest Macro Invest Macro 12.06.2022 16:16
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. COT metals market speculator bets were mostly rising this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while only one market had lower contracts. Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Copper (14,311 contracts) and Platinum (3,570 contracts) with Silver (3,407 contracts) and Gold (2,679 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, the only market with declines in speculator bets this week was Palladium with a fall of -328 contracts. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that only Copper (39.7 percent) is not in an extreme-bearish position at the current time. Using the Strength Index as a contrarian signal, the metals markets could be at attractive levels depending on the fundamental and technical factors of each market. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that only Platinum has been trending higher over the past six weeks. On the downside, Silver and the Gold have shown the largest downward trends. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-07-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,790,618 10 328,256 8 -369,033 93 40,777 72 Gold 494,130 12 175,268 7 -199,886 95 24,618 18 Silver 148,294 15 17,404 5 -27,990 94 10,586 10 Copper 194,187 22 -3,714 40 879 60 2,835 42 Palladium 7,035 3 -3,461 2 3,581 97 -120 37 Platinum 65,295 31 5,933 12 -9,742 92 3,809 15 Natural Gas 1,127,731 10 -114,342 44 66,419 52 47,923 93 Brent 169,802 16 -36,098 51 34,208 50 1,890 35 Heating Oil 261,651 20 4,886 50 -24,428 45 19,542 66 Soybeans 760,444 35 176,644 68 -148,390 39 -28,254 23 Corn 1,557,167 31 391,264 80 -337,137 24 -54,127 12 Coffee 222,583 15 48,767 81 -51,363 23 2,596 16 Sugar 849,814 12 195,403 77 -234,496 24 39,093 56 Wheat 333,705 12 23,881 50 -19,863 31 -4,018 90   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 175,268 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,679 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 172,589 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 54.7 23.7 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.2 64.1 3.9 – Net Position: 175,268 -199,886 24,618 – Gross Longs: 270,356 116,965 44,090 – Gross Shorts: 95,088 316,851 19,472 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.8 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.8 95.0 18.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.3 25.3 -23.5   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 17,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,997 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.2 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.0 36.9 16.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.3 55.8 9.8 – Net Position: 17,404 -27,990 10,586 – Gross Longs: 54,899 54,707 25,089 – Gross Shorts: 37,495 82,697 14,503 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.3 93.9 10.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.2 26.8 -15.3   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,025 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.0 51.7 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.9 51.3 7.1 – Net Position: -3,714 879 2,835 – Gross Longs: 58,232 100,449 16,646 – Gross Shorts: 61,946 99,570 13,811 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.7 60.1 41.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.1 2.8 -23.7   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 5,933 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,363 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.4 41.1 11.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.3 56.0 5.6 – Net Position: 5,933 -9,742 3,809 – Gross Longs: 27,004 26,823 7,479 – Gross Shorts: 21,071 36,565 3,670 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 11.9 91.6 15.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.9 -7.9 -35.4   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,461 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -328 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,133 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.4 70.9 15.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 62.6 20.0 16.9 – Net Position: -3,461 3,581 -120 – Gross Longs: 943 4,985 1,072 – Gross Shorts: 4,404 1,404 1,192 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.6 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.8 96.9 36.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.5 8.3 -29.3   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 23 Charts: Forex Speculators Positions mostly higher led by Canadian dollar & Swiss franc

COT Week 23 Charts: Forex Speculators Positions mostly higher led by Canadian dollar & Swiss franc

Invest Macro Invest Macro 12.06.2022 17:16
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. COT Currencies market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for currency markets was the Canadian dollar (5,945 contracts) and the Swiss franc (4,326 contracts) with the British pound sterling (3,295 contracts), Japanese yen (2,793 contracts), Brazil real (1,389 contracts), Australian dollar (786 contracts), US Dollar Index (400 contracts) and Bitcoin (87 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Mexican peso (-2,723 contracts) and Euro (-1,729 contracts) with New Zealand dollar (-1,047 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Currency Speculators Notes: US Dollar Index speculator bets have continued their upward climb in four out of the past five weeks as well as nine out of the past twelve weeks. USD Index remains in an extreme-bullish strength level and is very close (currently +37,938 contracts) to the highest net speculator position (+39,078 contracts on January 4th) of this recent bullish cycle, emphasizing the strong speculator bias. The Euro speculator position saw a pullback this week (-1,729 contracts) after huge gains in the previous three weeks (+58,650 contracts). Speculator sentiment is still pretty strong currently (+50,543 contracts) despite a very weak exchange rate (EURUSD at 1.0524 to close the week) and weak outlook for the Eurozone economy with rising inflation. British pound sterling speculator sentiment has crumbled in the past few months. The net speculator position managed to poke its head above its negative bias on February 15th with a total of +2,237 net contracts but sentiment has deteriorated since. From February 22nd to this week, speculator bets have dropped by a total of -73,047 contracts and recently hit a 139-week low on May 24th, the lowest level of speculator sentiment dating back to September of 2019. Japanese yen speculator positions are the most bearish of the major currencies just under -100,000 contracts. The USDJPY exchange rate is at a 20-year high and there has been no sign that the BOJ is interest in raising interest rates while other central banks commit to higher rates. These factors seem to say that the rout of the yen will continue ahead for some time (but how far can it go?). Commodity currency speculator bets are on the defensive lately. Australian dollar spec bets have fallen in five out of the past six weeks. Canadian dollar bets are now in bearish territory for a 5th straight week. New Zealand dollar speculator positions have declined in six out of the past seven weeks and the net position has now fallen to the lowest level since March of 2020 Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Brazilian Real, US Dollar Index and Bitcoin are all in extreme-bullish levels at the current moment. On the opposite end of the extreme spectrum, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc are very weak in relative speculator sentiment and sit in the extreme-bearish levels. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the commodity currencies have been losing sentiment over the last six weeks. The Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the New Zealand dollar have all had changes of at least -18.8 percent in their strength scores with the New Zealand dollar leading the decline with a -33.3 percent drop in six weeks. The US Dollar Index, Euro and Mexican Peso have had small but rising scores over the past six weeks. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-07-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 65,163 100 37,938 91 -41,863 5 3,925 59 EUR 730,667 95 50,543 51 -88,189 51 37,646 37 GBP 258,623 76 -70,810 23 80,465 77 -9,655 36 JPY 266,054 100 -91,646 12 109,109 89 -17,463 18 CHF 49,794 41 -16,132 16 27,216 87 -11,084 20 CAD 167,373 42 -1,062 40 -13,401 58 14,463 59 AUD 166,422 57 -47,896 40 47,413 54 483 54 NZD 63,540 70 -19,771 38 22,681 65 -2,910 19 MXN 248,184 72 32,726 41 -38,117 57 5,391 66 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 72,371 70 46,705 96 -48,954 4 2,249 91 Bitcoin 10,990 58 490 93 -529 0 39 14   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 37,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,538 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.1 3.2 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.9 67.5 2.8 – Net Position: 37,938 -41,863 3,925 – Gross Longs: 55,460 2,090 5,780 – Gross Shorts: 17,522 43,953 1,855 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.2 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.2 5.0 59.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.0 -8.8 13.4   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 50,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,272 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.5 50.0 12.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.6 62.1 7.3 – Net Position: 50,543 -88,189 37,646 – Gross Longs: 230,248 365,628 90,978 – Gross Shorts: 179,705 453,817 53,332 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.5 51.0 36.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.7 -11.9 22.7   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -70,810 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,105 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.4 74.1 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.8 43.0 12.1 – Net Position: -70,810 80,465 -9,655 – Gross Longs: 34,618 191,742 21,602 – Gross Shorts: 105,428 111,277 31,257 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 23.0 77.3 35.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.9 -4.4 17.9   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -91,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,439 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.9 79.3 8.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.4 38.3 15.3 – Net Position: -91,646 109,109 -17,463 – Gross Longs: 18,466 210,889 23,226 – Gross Shorts: 110,112 101,780 40,689 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.4 88.9 18.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.4 -2.8 3.9   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,458 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.2 69.3 18.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.6 14.6 41.1 – Net Position: -16,132 27,216 -11,084 – Gross Longs: 2,609 34,494 9,378 – Gross Shorts: 18,741 7,278 20,462 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 4.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.6 86.9 20.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.3 2.4 6.0   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,062 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,945 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,007 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.5 44.2 22.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.1 52.2 13.7 – Net Position: -1,062 -13,401 14,463 – Gross Longs: 39,288 74,044 37,463 – Gross Shorts: 40,350 87,445 23,000 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.2 57.6 58.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.8 14.2 9.7   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -47,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 786 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,682 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.1 59.9 14.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.8 31.4 14.2 – Net Position: -47,896 47,413 483 – Gross Longs: 31,720 99,747 24,197 – Gross Shorts: 79,616 52,334 23,714 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.4 54.3 53.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.8 13.8 4.3   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -19,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,047 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,724 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.4 69.1 4.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.5 33.4 8.6 – Net Position: -19,771 22,681 -2,910 – Gross Longs: 12,310 43,890 2,538 – Gross Shorts: 32,081 21,209 5,448 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.1 65.4 18.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -33.3 31.2 -4.3   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 32,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,449 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 48.0 35.4 3.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.8 50.8 1.2 – Net Position: 32,726 -38,117 5,391 – Gross Longs: 119,162 87,884 8,441 – Gross Shorts: 86,436 126,001 3,050 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.3 56.9 65.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.4 -6.1 8.3   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,705 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,389 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,316 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.1 13.5 5.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.5 81.2 2.3 – Net Position: 46,705 -48,954 2,249 – Gross Longs: 58,657 9,780 3,931 – Gross Shorts: 11,952 58,734 1,682 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 96.3 3.5 91.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.2 -0.2 4.4   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 87 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 403 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.5 1.5 9.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 77.1 6.4 9.3 – Net Position: 490 -529 39 – Gross Longs: 8,959 169 1,063 – Gross Shorts: 8,469 698 1,024 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 93.2 21.6 13.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.5 -6.4 0.6   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Trading Week Ahead Live with Stuart McPhee

Trading Week Ahead Live with Stuart McPhee

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 12.06.2022 00:30
Join Stuart McPhee, trader, property investor, and bestselling author, as he gives you his Trading Week Ahead Live for the week. Watch him as he starts off the week by summarising the state of the markets in Forex, Indices, and Commodities. Then prepare yourself as he shares potential trade ideas and opportunities in play for the coming week.  JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 15th June 2022! Are you tired of analysing the market alone? Would you like to know how the market is taking shape this week? Register for Stuart’s mid-week Live Market Update. Join him on Wednesday 15th June, at 7PM AEST (10AM BST) as he looks back at the earlier market activity and opportunities since his Trading week Ahead. Stuart will then break down the developments and moves made and provide further insight on what may happen as the weekend approaches. Register Now At the end of the session, you will have the opportunity to direct all your market, strategy, and trade-related questions to the expert in a live Q&A. Learn what you need to trade CFDs safely. The Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and Stuart McPhee this week on the Trade Zone as we explore the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trading Week Ahead Live with Stuart McPhee appeared first on Eightcap.
Estimating Future Stock Returns, March 2022 Update

Estimating Future Stock Returns, March 2022 Update

David Merkel David Merkel 14.06.2022 05:51
Image credit: All images belong to Aleph Blog Well, finally the bear market… at 3/31/2002 the S&P 500 was priced to return a trice less than zero in nominal terms. After the pasting the market received today, that figure is 3.57%/year nominal (not adjusted for inflation). You would likely be better off in an ETF of 10-year single-A rated bonds yielding 4.7% — both for safety and return. I will admit that my recent experiment buying TLT has been a flop. I added to the position today. My view is that the long end of the curve is getting resistant to the belly of the curve, and thus the curve is turning into the “cap” formation, where the middle of the curve is higher than the short and long ends. This is a rare situation. Usually, the long end rallies in situations like this. The only situation more rare than this is the “cup” formation where the middle of the curve is lower than the short and long ends. I will have to update my my old post of “Goes Down Double-Speed.” We’ve been through three cycles since then — bear, bull, and now bear again. People get surprised by the ferocity of bear markets, but they shouldn’t be. People get shocked at losing money on paper, and thus the selloffs happen more rapidly. Bull markets face skepticism, and so they are slow. What are the possibilities given where the market is now? When the market is expecting 3.57% nominal, give or take one percent, what tends to happen? Most of the time, growth at these levels for the S&P 500 is pretty poor. That said, market expectations of inflation over the next ten years are well below the 4.7% you can earn on an average 10-year single-A rated corporate bond. Those expectations may be wrong — they usually are, but you can’t tell which way they will be wrong. I am still a believer in deflation, so I think current estimates of inflation are too high. There is too much debt and so monetary policy will have more punch than previously. The FOMC will panic, tighten too much, and crater some area in the financial economy that they care about, and then they will give up again, regardless of how high inflation is. They care more about avoiding a depression than inflation. They will even resume QE with inflation running hot if they are worried about the financial sector. The Fed cares about things in this order: Preserve their own necksPreserve the banks, and things like themFight inflationFund the US GovernmentPromote nominal GDP growth, though they will call it reducing labor unemployment. The Fed really doesn’t care about labor unemployment, or inequality. They are a bourgeois institution that cares about themselves and their patrons — those who are rich. I know this post is “all over the map.” My apologies. That said, we in a very unusual situation featuring high debt, high current inflation (that won’t last), war, plague, and supply-chain issues. How this exactly works out is a mystery, especially to me — but I am giving you my best guess here, for whatever it is worth. It’s worth than double what you paid for it! Full disclosure: long TLT for clients and me
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 7/6/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 7/6/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 17.06.2022 10:30
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 7/6/2022 Total net speculator positions on the USD index rose by 400 contracts last week to 37,938 contracts. This change is the result of a 600-contract increase in long positions and a 200-contract increase in short positions. On the euro, there was a decrease in total net positions after a significant previous increase. A reduction in total net positions also occurred on the New Zealand dollar last week. Increases in total net positions occurred last week on the British pound, the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, and the Swiss franc. The markets experienced high volatility last week, triggered by concerns that the economy was tightening more rapidly on the back of rising inflation. As a result, equity indices have continued to fall and this risk-off sentiment has led to a strengthening of the US dollar and a weakening of more or less all currencies tracked. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Jun 7, 2022    37938 50543 -70810 -47896 -19771 -91646 -1062 -16132 May 31, 2022 37538 52272 -74105 -48682 -18724 -94439 -7007 -20458 May 24, 2022 38039 38930 -80372 -45446 -19321 -99444 -12687 -19673 May 17, 2022 36213 20339 -79241 -44642 -17767 -102309 -14496 -16592 May 10, 2022 34776 16529 -79598 -41714 -12996 -110454 -5407 -15763 May 03, 2022 33071 -6378 -73813 -28516 -6610 -100794 9029 -13907   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com   The Euro   DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 07, 2022 730667 230248 179705 50543 24350 -6305 -4576 -1729 Weak bullish May 31, 2022 706317 236553 184281 52272 -2621 -519 -13861 13342 Bullish May 24, 2022 708938 237072 198142 38930 2226 6302 -12289 18591 Bullish May 17, 2022 706712 230770 210431 20339 1666 2540 -1270 3810 Bullish May 10, 2022 705046 228230 211701 16529 10120 19781 -3126 22907 Bullish May 03, 2022 694926 208449 214827 -6378 6477 -14544 14035 -28579 Bearish         Total Change 42218 7255 -21087 28342     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EUR/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 50 543 contracts last week, down by 1 729 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 6,305 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,576 contracts. This data suggests weak bullish sentiment as total net positions are positive but at the same time there has been a decline. Open interest rose by 24,350 contracts in the last week. This shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The price bounced off resistance at the EMA 50 moving average and is approaching horizontal support which is in the band at 1.0400. The weakening euro is a result of the ECB's approach to inflation. The ECB announced to raise the rate by 0.25% from July, which is significantly less than the interest rate increase implemented by the US Fed.  Long-term resistance: 1.0620 – 1.0650. The next resistance is at 1.0770-1.0780. Support: 1.0340 – 1.0420 The British pound DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 7, 2022 258623 34618 105428 -70810 5742 3830 535 3295 Weak bullish May 31, 2022 252881 30788 104893 -74105 -983 4852 -1415 6267 Weak bearish May 24, 2022 253864 25936 106308 -80372 53 -677 454 -1131 Bearish May 17, 2022 253811 26613 105854 -79241 -10783 -2856 -3213 357 Weak bearish May 10 2022 264594 29469 109067 -79598 -3902 -4067 1718 -5785 Bearish May 03, 2022 268496 33536 107349 -73813 -4296 -6900 -2708 -4192 Bearish         Total Change -14169 -5818 -4629 -1189     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBP/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 70,810 contracts, having increased by 3,295 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 3,830 contracts and the growth in short positions by 535 contracts. This suggests weak bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but at the same time there has been an increase in them. Open interest rose by 5742 contracts last week, indicating that the downward movement in the pound that occurred last week was supported by volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The pound is weakening strongly in the current risk off sentiment and has reached its long term support. Long-term resistance: 1.2440 – 1.2476.    Support: 1.2160 – 1.2200   The Australian dollar   DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 7, 2022 166422 31720 79616 -47896 12761 -1177 -1963 786 Weak bearish May 31, 2022 153661 32897 81579 -48682 -4954 -3682 -446 -3236 Bearish May 24, 2022 158615 36579 82025 -45446 -5194 -4894 -4090 -804 Bearish May 17, 2022 163809 41473 86115 -44642 10600 4604 7532 -2928 Bearish May 10, 2022 153209 36869 78583 -41714 952 -10126 3072 13198 Bearish May 03, 2022 152257 46995 75511 -28516 5167 -110 755 -865 Bearish         Total Change 19332 -15385 4860 -20245     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 47,896 contracts last week, up by 786 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,177 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 1,963 contracts. This data suggests weak bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar, as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but at the same time there was an increase in them in the previous week. There was an increase in open interest of 12,761 contracts last week. This means that the downward movement that occurred last week on the AUD was supported by volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The Australian dollar is weakening sharply even though the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 0.50% last week. The reason for this bearish decline is the current risk-off sentiment which is particularly threatening commodity currencies, which includes the Australian dollar. Long-term resistance: 0.7250-0.7260                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.6830-0.6850  (the support zone begins at 0.6930 according to a weekly chart).   The New Zealand dollar   DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 7, 2022 63540 12310 32081 -19771 8406 3131 4178 -1047 Bearish May 31, 2022 55134 9179 27903 -18724 -4145 -1570 -2167 597 Weak bearish May 24, 2022 59279 10749 30070 -19321 -1525 -4249 -2695 -1554 Bearish May 17, 2022 60804 14998 32765 -17767 4569 -205 4566 -4771 Bearish May 10, 2022 56235 15203 28199 -12996 5391 -2224 4162 -6386 Bearish May 03, 2022 50844 17427 24037 -6610 4334 -4658 2018 -6676 Bearish         Total Change 17030 -9775 10062 -19837     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to -19,771 contracts, down by 1,047 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 3,131 contracts and an increase in short positions by 4,178 contracts. This data suggests that there has been bearish sentiment on the New Zealand Dollar over the past week as the total net positions of large speculators have been negative and there was further decline in them as well. Open interest rose by 8,406 contracts last week. The downward move in NZD/USD that occurred last week was supported by volume and therefore the move was strong. The NZD/USD bounced off the resistance band at 0.6570 and approached significant support. The decline in the New Zealand Dollar is mainly due to risk off sentiment in equity markets. Long-term resistance: 0.6540 – 0.6570 Long-term support: 0.6220 – 0.6280   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
COT Week 24 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed led by Heating Oil & WTI Crude

COT Week 24 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed led by Heating Oil & WTI Crude

Invest Macro Invest Macro 18.06.2022 13:18
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for energy markets was Heating Oil (3,589 contracts) and then Gasoline (968 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (72 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, on the downside, the markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-25,310 contracts) and Natural Gas (-9,143 contracts) while Brent Crude Oil (-291 contracts) also registered lower bets on the week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index has the highest strength score with a 75.7 strength score followed by Heating Oil and Brent Crude Oil. WTI Crude Oil (currently at the lowest level of past three years or 0 percent) and Gasoline (2.2 percent) currently are in bearish-extreme levels with speculator sentiment very weak. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Heating Oil and the Bloomberg Commodity Index have had rising scores over the past six weeks while all the other energy markets have had declining moves. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-14-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,715,674 0 302,946 0 -341,654 100 38,708 70 Gold 497,456 13 154,598 0 -178,569 100 23,971 15 Silver 151,978 18 14,005 0 -22,047 100 8,042 0 Copper 187,247 17 -13,797 32 10,287 67 3,510 46 Palladium 7,740 6 -4,057 0 4,354 100 -297 27 Platinum 66,613 33 2,214 7 -6,793 96 4,579 26 Natural Gas 1,053,265 0 -123,485 42 74,310 54 49,175 96 Brent 171,026 17 -36,389 50 34,601 51 1,788 33 Heating Oil 268,199 23 8,475 55 -28,686 41 20,211 68 Soybeans 754,428 34 182,667 70 -155,663 37 -27,004 25 Corn 1,521,565 25 399,775 81 -344,196 23 -55,579 11 Coffee 202,656 0 46,885 79 -48,399 25 1,514 5 Sugar 800,806 1 170,483 72 -198,006 31 27,523 42 Wheat 336,890 13 20,435 46 -18,089 34 -2,346 98   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 302,946 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -25,310 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 328,256 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.9 35.3 5.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.2 55.2 3.0 – Net Position: 302,946 -341,654 38,708 – Gross Longs: 409,427 604,944 90,476 – Gross Shorts: 106,481 946,598 51,768 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 69.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.5 9.2 -8.2   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -36,389 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -291 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,098 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.6 52.0 4.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.9 31.8 3.3 – Net Position: -36,389 34,601 1,788 – Gross Longs: 23,246 88,924 7,365 – Gross Shorts: 59,635 54,323 5,577 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.1 50.8 33.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.2 14.3 6.5   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -123,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -114,342 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.9 38.9 7.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.6 31.8 2.4 – Net Position: -123,485 74,310 49,175 – Gross Longs: 220,256 409,613 74,311 – Gross Shorts: 343,741 335,303 25,136 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 3.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.5 54.3 96.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.7 0.5 10.2   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 31,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 968 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,488 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.8 53.2 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.7 67.4 4.2 – Net Position: 31,456 -43,672 12,216 – Gross Longs: 76,744 164,469 25,175 – Gross Shorts: 45,288 208,141 12,959 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.2 93.4 94.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.0 5.3 10.7   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 8,475 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,589 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,886 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.1 50.5 16.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.0 61.2 9.2 – Net Position: 8,475 -28,686 20,211 – Gross Longs: 45,945 135,386 45,006 – Gross Shorts: 37,470 164,072 24,795 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.9 40.7 68.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.5 -15.6 -6.8   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 72 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,383 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.0 51.7 0.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.5 42.8 0.1 – Net Position: -8,311 7,764 547 – Gross Longs: 25,428 45,267 619 – Gross Shorts: 33,739 37,503 72 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 8.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.7 23.2 38.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.3 -18.9 -5.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 24 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Positions mostly lower led by Sugar & Cocoa

COT Week 24 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Positions mostly lower led by Sugar & Cocoa

Invest Macro Invest Macro 18.06.2022 14:18
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. The soft commodities market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as just three out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while eight markets had lower speculator bets. Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Corn (8,511 contracts) and Live Cattle (7,316 contracts) with Soybeans (6,023 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-24,920 contracts) and Cocoa (-17,863 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-5,247 contracts), Cotton (-4,427 contracts), Wheat (-3,446 contracts), Lean Hogs (-3,105 contracts), Coffee (-1,882 contracts) and Soybean Meal (-845 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Corn (81.1 percent and bullish-extreme) is at the highest level of the softs currently followed by Coffee and Soybean Meal. On the downside, Lean Hogs (14.8 percent) and Cocoa (14.3 percent) are in bearish-extreme levels and have the weakest speculator strength scores at the moment. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Coffee and Wheat have the only rising scores over the past six weeks. Cocoa leads the trends on the downside with a -39.1 percent trend change followed by Live Cattle (-17.9 percent) and Lean Hogs (-16 percent). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-14-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,715,674 0 302,946 0 -341,654 100 38,708 70 Gold 497,456 13 154,598 0 -178,569 100 23,971 15 Silver 151,978 18 14,005 0 -22,047 100 8,042 0 Copper 187,247 17 -13,797 32 10,287 67 3,510 46 Palladium 7,740 6 -4,057 0 4,354 100 -297 27 Platinum 66,613 33 2,214 7 -6,793 96 4,579 26 Natural Gas 1,053,265 0 -123,485 42 74,310 54 49,175 96 Brent 171,026 17 -36,389 50 34,601 51 1,788 33 Heating Oil 268,199 23 8,475 55 -28,686 41 20,211 68 Soybeans 754,428 34 182,667 70 -155,663 37 -27,004 25 Corn 1,521,565 25 399,775 81 -344,196 23 -55,579 11 Coffee 202,656 0 46,885 79 -48,399 25 1,514 5 Sugar 800,806 1 170,483 72 -198,006 31 27,523 42 Wheat 336,890 13 20,435 46 -18,089 34 -2,346 98   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 399,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,511 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 391,264 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.1 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.2 44.6 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.9 67.2 12.8 – Net Position: 399,775 -344,196 -55,579 – Gross Longs: 519,685 678,186 139,407 – Gross Shorts: 119,910 1,022,382 194,986 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 81.1 22.9 11.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.0 15.2 -2.8   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 170,483 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -24,920 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 195,403 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.1 47.6 10.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.8 72.3 6.7 – Net Position: 170,483 -198,006 27,523 – Gross Longs: 233,102 380,876 80,955 – Gross Shorts: 62,619 578,882 53,432 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.7 30.6 41.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.4 7.3 -9.0   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 46,885 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,882 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,767 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.1 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.3 49.4 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.2 73.3 3.6 – Net Position: 46,885 -48,399 1,514 – Gross Longs: 55,397 100,060 8,883 – Gross Shorts: 8,512 148,459 7,369 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.3 25.3 5.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.3 -4.9 -8.0   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 182,667 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,023 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 176,644 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.5 49.3 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.3 69.9 10.2 – Net Position: 182,667 -155,663 -27,004 – Gross Longs: 229,930 371,675 50,027 – Gross Shorts: 47,263 527,338 77,031 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.8 37.1 25.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.4 2.9 -3.3   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 73,398 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,247 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,645 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.3 50.9 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.4 73.4 5.5 – Net Position: 73,398 -87,101 13,703 – Gross Longs: 102,073 198,015 35,202 – Gross Shorts: 28,675 285,116 21,499 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.8 43.4 64.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.9 14.5 -1.0   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 88,831 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -845 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,676 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.6 43.8 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.5 73.6 5.9 – Net Position: 88,831 -114,735 25,904 – Gross Longs: 106,273 168,517 48,694 – Gross Shorts: 17,442 283,252 22,790 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.9 23.3 67.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.0 2.6 29.3   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 32,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,428 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.9 40.6 11.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.9 51.6 12.3 – Net Position: 32,744 -30,120 -2,624 – Gross Longs: 100,918 110,947 30,976 – Gross Shorts: 68,174 141,067 33,600 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 20.4 72.1 72.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.9 15.4 10.5   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 7,386 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,105 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,491 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.7 43.9 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.8 43.8 13.8 – Net Position: 7,386 202 -7,588 – Gross Longs: 57,305 84,837 19,098 – Gross Shorts: 49,919 84,635 26,686 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.8 93.7 57.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -16.0 20.7 -15.1   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 66,255 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,427 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,682 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.1 41.6 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.9 79.5 4.5 – Net Position: 66,255 -75,657 9,402 – Gross Longs: 81,941 82,992 18,322 – Gross Shorts: 15,686 158,649 8,920 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 64.9 33.8 71.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.0 11.9 -19.5   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -17,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,494 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.0 45.5 5.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.1 45.5 4.8 – Net Position: -3,369 -126 3,495 – Gross Longs: 90,712 142,236 18,389 – Gross Shorts: 94,081 142,362 14,894 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.3 85.8 31.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -39.1 42.0 -32.3   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of 20,435 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,881 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.2 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.3 38.0 10.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.3 43.4 11.4 – Net Position: 20,435 -18,089 -2,346 – Gross Longs: 105,566 128,087 36,114 – Gross Shorts: 85,131 146,176 38,460 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.6 33.9 98.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.6 -5.5 17.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 24 Charts: Bond Market Speculators Bets mostly higher led by Eurodollar & 10-Year Bonds

COT Week 24 Charts: Bond Market Speculators Bets mostly higher led by Eurodollar & 10-Year Bonds

Invest Macro Invest Macro 18.06.2022 14:58
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. COT bond market speculator bets were mixed as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had falling speculator contracts for the week. Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (791,810 contracts) and the 10-Year Bond (60,658 contracts) with Fed Funds (56,698 contracts), 5-Year Bond (31,476 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (10,067 contracts) also showing positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Long US Bond (-34,363 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-26,628 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year (-5,373 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (75 percent) is at the highest level of the bonds markets currently. On the lower end, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (7.7 percent) and 3-Month Eurodollars (15.4 percent) are in bearish-extreme levels and have the weakest speculator strength scores at the moment. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the 5-Year Bond (22.5 percent) and Fed Funds (20.5 percent) are leading the rising trend scores over the past six weeks. The US Treasury Bond leads the trends on the downside with a -9.2 percent trend change followed by the 10-Year Bonds and Ultra 10-Year Bonds. Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-14-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index Eurodollar 9,327,824 9 -1,854,692 19 2,223,303 81 -368,611 23 FedFunds 1,680,512 52 110,931 53 -115,511 46 4,580 71 2-Year 2,012,004 10 -160,422 50 228,211 70 -67,789 20 Long T-Bond 1,188,806 47 -29,400 75 43,870 32 -14,470 41 10-Year 3,509,639 30 -205,529 41 374,018 66 -168,489 40 5-Year 3,889,422 45 -191,071 50 372,681 59 -181,610 31   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,854,692 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 791,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,646,502 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.0 68.9 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.9 45.1 8.4 – Net Position: -1,854,692 2,223,303 -368,611 – Gross Longs: 651,750 6,428,169 412,783 – Gross Shorts: 2,506,442 4,204,866 781,394 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 18.8 80.8 23.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.4 -15.7 11.1   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 110,931 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 56,698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,233 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.2 70.8 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.6 77.6 2.5 – Net Position: 110,931 -115,511 4,580 – Gross Longs: 221,596 1,189,101 46,737 – Gross Shorts: 110,665 1,304,612 42,157 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.3 45.9 71.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.5 -21.4 25.1   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -160,422 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -170,489 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.7 77.3 7.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.7 65.9 10.5 – Net Position: -160,422 228,211 -67,789 – Gross Longs: 236,115 1,554,892 143,727 – Gross Shorts: 396,537 1,326,681 211,516 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.9 69.7 20.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.3 -3.8 20.3   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -191,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 31,476 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -222,547 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.6 80.8 7.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.5 71.2 12.5 – Net Position: -191,071 372,681 -181,610 – Gross Longs: 374,601 3,141,449 302,708 – Gross Shorts: 565,672 2,768,768 484,318 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.7 58.8 31.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.5 -16.7 2.5   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -205,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 60,658 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -266,187 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.2 80.3 8.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.1 69.7 13.5 – Net Position: -205,529 374,018 -168,489 – Gross Longs: 253,485 2,819,950 305,184 – Gross Shorts: 459,014 2,445,932 473,673 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.2 66.3 39.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.8 7.2 -0.6   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -81,207 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,834 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.5 83.7 11.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.1 66.2 21.8 – Net Position: -81,207 213,971 -132,764 – Gross Longs: 55,047 1,027,514 134,825 – Gross Shorts: 136,254 813,543 267,589 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.7 95.2 36.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.7 -2.9 -11.3   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -29,400 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -34,363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,963 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.7 76.8 13.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.1 73.1 14.3 – Net Position: -29,400 43,870 -14,470 – Gross Longs: 102,957 912,867 155,248 – Gross Shorts: 132,357 868,997 169,718 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.0 32.3 41.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -14.0 12.7 3.3   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -341,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -26,628 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -314,973 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.2 84.1 11.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.5 60.1 9.1 – Net Position: -341,601 311,386 30,215 – Gross Longs: 41,147 1,091,594 147,658 – Gross Shorts: 382,748 780,208 117,443 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.9 67.4 50.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.2 6.2 7.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 24 Charts: Metals Speculator bets lower as Gold & Copper bets drop

COT Week 24 Charts: Metals Speculator bets lower as Gold & Copper bets drop

Invest Macro Invest Macro 18.06.2022 16:18
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. COT Metals market speculator bets were lower this week as all five of the metals markets we cover had lower positioning this week. Leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-20,670 contracts) and Copper (-10,083 contracts) with Platinum (-3,719 contracts), Silver (-3,399 contracts) and Palladium (-596 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Highlighting this week’s COT metals data was the further weakness in bullish bets for the Gold futures contracts. Gold speculators sharply dropped their bullish bets by -20,670 contracts this week and have now seen lower positions for two out of three weeks as well as for the seventh time in the past nine weeks. Over the nine-week time-frame, Gold speculator bets have fallen by a total of -99,689 contracts, going from +254,297 net positions on April 12th to +154,598 net positions this week. These decreases have brought the current level down to the least bullish standing of the past one hundred and fifty-nine weeks, dating back to May 28th of 2019. Despite the speculator weakness, the Gold futures price has not fallen too sharply although prices have cooled off since hitting an almost two-year high of $2,078 on March 8th. The Gold price currently remains trading in its range between approximately $1,800 and $1,884 that has prevailed since early in May and over the longer-term, remains in an uptrend. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Copper (32.4 percent) is the leading pack this week although this score is just slightly above a extreme bearish score. All the other markets are currently in extreme bearish levels (below 20 percent) as speculator sentiment among the metals is very weak at the moment. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Platinum (5.4 percent) and Copper (1.3 percent) are the only two metals with rising trend scores. Gold and Silver are neck and neck for leading the trends to the downside with scores of -22.4 percent (Gold) and -22 percent (Silver), respectively, while Platinum (-7.3 percent) also has a negative trend score for the week. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-14-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,715,674 0 302,946 0 -341,654 100 38,708 70 Gold 497,456 13 154,598 0 -178,569 100 23,971 15 Silver 151,978 18 14,005 0 -22,047 100 8,042 0 Copper 187,247 17 -13,797 32 10,287 67 3,510 46 Palladium 7,740 6 -4,057 0 4,354 100 -297 27 Platinum 66,613 33 2,214 7 -6,793 96 4,579 26 Natural Gas 1,053,265 0 -123,485 42 74,310 54 49,175 96 Brent 171,026 17 -36,389 50 34,601 51 1,788 33 Heating Oil 268,199 23 8,475 55 -28,686 41 20,211 68 Soybeans 754,428 34 182,667 70 -155,663 37 -27,004 25 Corn 1,521,565 25 399,775 81 -344,196 23 -55,579 11 Coffee 202,656 0 46,885 79 -48,399 25 1,514 5 Sugar 800,806 1 170,483 72 -198,006 31 27,523 42 Wheat 336,890 13 20,435 46 -18,089 34 -2,346 98   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 154,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -20,670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 175,268 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.6 24.5 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.5 60.4 4.4 – Net Position: 154,598 -178,569 23,971 – Gross Longs: 266,596 121,926 45,726 – Gross Shorts: 111,998 300,495 21,755 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.4 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 14.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.4 25.7 -31.1   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,005 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,404 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.6 39.6 16.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.4 54.1 10.7 – Net Position: 14,005 -22,047 8,042 – Gross Longs: 57,216 60,161 24,268 – Gross Shorts: 43,211 82,208 16,226 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.0 21.9 -16.9   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,797 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,083 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,714 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.3 55.2 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.6 49.7 6.9 – Net Position: -13,797 10,287 3,510 – Gross Longs: 51,077 103,433 16,449 – Gross Shorts: 64,874 93,146 12,939 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.4 66.5 45.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.3 0.1 -11.8   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 2,214 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,719 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,933 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.7 42.3 12.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.3 52.5 6.0 – Net Position: 2,214 -6,793 4,579 – Gross Longs: 25,085 28,194 8,597 – Gross Shorts: 22,871 34,987 4,018 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.5 95.7 25.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.4 -4.3 -8.8   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,461 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.5 71.8 14.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 65.9 15.5 18.1 – Net Position: -4,057 4,354 -297 – Gross Longs: 1,045 5,555 1,105 – Gross Shorts: 5,102 1,201 1,402 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 4.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 26.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 10.7 -34.4   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Currency Speculators boost US Dollar Index bets to 5-year high while Euro bets dip into bearish level

Currency Speculators boost US Dollar Index bets to 5-year high while Euro bets dip into bearish level

Invest Macro Invest Macro 18.06.2022 20:13
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. There were many really large moves this week in the COT positioning as the data was recorded on Tuesday – just one day ahead of the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 75 basis point increase in the US benchmark Fed Funds rate. Currency market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets (Russian ruble futures positions have not been updated by the CFTC since March) we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for currency market positions was the Canadian dollar (24,264 contracts) and the Japanese yen (21,891 contracts) with the New Zealand dollar (12,933 contracts), Swiss franc (9,324 contracts), US Dollar Index (6,538 contracts), British pound sterling (5,214 contracts), Australian dollar (4,642 contracts), Bitcoin (571 contracts) and Brazil real (508 contracts) also showing positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets were the Mexican peso (-59,107 contracts) and the Euro (-56,561 contracts) this week. Currency Speculators Notes: US Dollar Index speculators raised their bullish bets for a second straight week this week and for the seventh time in the past ten weeks. These increases pushed the large speculator standing (+44,476 contracts) to the highest level in the past two hundred and seventy-three weeks, dating back more than five years to March 21st of 2017. The most bullish level ever was +81,270 contracts on March 10th of 2015. The US dollar strength keeps rolling along and the overall standing has now remained bullish for the past fifty consecutive weeks, dating back to July of 2021. The US Dollar Index price has continued its strength as well and reached a high this week of over 105.75 which is the best level for the DXY since back in December of 2002. Euro speculators sharply dropped their positions this week by the most on record with a huge decline of -56,561 contracts. This record decline beat out the previous high of -52,107 contracts that took place on June 19th of 2018. Euro bets had been gaining over the past month and were at a total of +50,543 contracts before this week’s sharp turnaround which has now tipped the overall spec positioning into bearish territory for the first time since January. Japanese yen speculator bets surged this week (+21,891 contracts) and gained for the fifth straight week. Yen speculator positions have been in bearish territory for over a year and have been extremely week since many central banks around the world started raising their interest rates. The Bank of Japan has not raised rates and has signaled that it will not do so, creating large interest rate differentials compared to the other major currencies. Despite the spec bets increase this week, the yen exchange rate came under further pressure this week with the USDJPY price closing over the 135.00 exchange rate (and remaining near 20-year highs). Mexican Peso speculator bets fell sharply by -59,381 contracts this week and flipped the MXN speculator positioning from bullish to bearish. The weekly speculator decline is the largest fall in the past thirteen weeks and the decrease into a bearish standing is the first time since March 29th. Canadian dollar bets jumped this week by the most in the past seventy-seven weeks and brought the speculator position back into bullish territory for the first time in six weeks. CAD speculator bets have now gained for four straight weeks and the overall spec standing is residing at the highest level since July 2021. New Zealand dollar speculators also boosted their bets this week after the NZD positions had dropped in six out of the previous seven weeks. This week’s rise in weekly bets was the most in the past thirteen weeks but the overall speculator standing remains in bearish territory for the seventh straight week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (100 percent), Bitcoin (100 percent) and the Brazilian Real (96.8 percent) are leading the strength scores and are all in extreme bullish positions. On the downside, the Mexican peso (16.1 percent) has fallen into extreme bearish positioning followed by the Japanese yen (25.9 percent) and British pound (26.7 percent) which are just above the 20 percent extreme bearish threshold. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the US Dollar Index (19.5 percent), Japanese yen (19.1 percent) and Swiss franc (18 percent) have the highest six-week trend scores currently. The Mexican peso also leads the trends on the downside with a -17.5 percent trend change. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-14-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 61,144 91 44,476 100 -47,736 0 3,260 52 EUR 668,164 69 -6,018 33 -28,495 68 34,513 32 GBP 238,322 63 -65,596 27 81,063 78 -15,467 24 JPY 232,513 77 -69,755 26 86,443 78 -16,688 20 CHF 39,362 20 -6,808 39 18,147 72 -11,339 19 CAD 175,219 47 23,202 65 -30,284 43 7,082 44 AUD 142,857 39 -43,254 45 44,710 52 -1,456 49 NZD 45,410 35 -6,838 60 9,773 45 -2,935 18 MXN 197,375 48 -26,381 16 23,148 82 3,233 57 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 69,931 67 47,213 97 -48,458 4 1,245 79 Bitcoin 12,242 68 1,061 100 -947 0 -114 10   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 44,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,938 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.9 2.9 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.2 80.9 3.8 – Net Position: 44,476 -47,736 3,260 – Gross Longs: 53,133 1,752 5,553 – Gross Shorts: 8,657 49,488 2,293 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 52.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.2 -19.1 7.1   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -56,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,543 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.0 54.1 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.9 58.3 7.5 – Net Position: -6,018 -28,495 34,513 – Gross Longs: 206,986 361,159 84,823 – Gross Shorts: 213,004 389,654 50,310 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.2 67.9 31.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.1 -1.1 5.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,810 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.3 77.2 8.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.8 43.2 15.1 – Net Position: -65,596 81,063 -15,467 – Gross Longs: 29,343 184,011 20,625 – Gross Shorts: 94,939 102,948 36,092 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Sc