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Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

There were many really large moves this week in the COT positioning as the data was recorded on Tuesday – just one day ahead of the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 75 basis point increase in the US benchmark Fed Funds rate.

Currency market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets (Russ

Tension Beetween Ukraine And Russia Definetely Shaped News In Recent Days

EUR/USD Forecast: Poor US employment-related data undermines dollar’s demand

FXStreet News FXStreet News 20.01.2022 15:58
EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1351 The EU December Consumer Price Index was confirmed at 5% YoY, as previously estimated. US Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly jumped to 286K in the week ended January 7. EUR/USD bounces from its intraday low but maintains a neutral stance in the near term. The EUR/USD pair eased from an intraday peak of 1.1368, trading in the 1.1350 area heading into the US opening. The greenback trades mixed across the FX board, weaker against commodity-linked currencies but grinding higher vs its European rivals. Financial markets are quieter on Thursday, with European stocks struggling for direction but stuck around their opening levels. The EU published the December Consumer Price Index, which was confirmed at 5% YoY, while the core reading met the preliminary estimate posting 2.6%. Also, the European Central Bank posted the Accounts of its latest meeting, which showed that policymakers are aware of a possible "higher for longer" inflation scenario. The US published Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended January 7, which unexpectedly jumped to 286K, much worse than the 220K expected. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey surged from 15.4 to 23.2 in January, beating expectations. The news put some pressure on the greenback, now recovering from its daily low at 1.1330. EUR/USD short-term technical outlook The EUR/USD pair could resume its decline in the upcoming sessions, as there are no technical signs of buying interest. The daily chart shows that the pair is incapable of advancing beyond a flat 20 SMA for a second consecutive day, while the Momentum indicator heads lower within negative levels. Additionally, the RSI is stable, although around 49. Meanwhile, the pair keeps trading between Fibonacci levels, with immediate support at 1.1305, the 23.6% retracement of the 1.1691/1.1185 slide. The 38.2% retracement is located at 1.1385, providing strong resistance since mid-November. In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the pair maintains a neutral-to-bearish stance, trading below a firmly bearish 20 SMA but between directionless 100 and 200 SMA. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain within negative levels, the Momentum advancing but the RSI flat at around 44. Support levels: 1.1305 1.1260 1.1220 Resistance levels: 1.1385 1.1440 1.1485
Can We Call It A Crypto Crash? Bitcoin Below $40k And Ether Below $3k

Can We Call It A Crypto Crash? Bitcoin Below $40k And Ether Below $3k

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 21.01.2022 09:44
The crypto market capitalisation fell to 1.83 trillion, losing 7.3% in the past 24 hours. As we had feared, the selloff was triggered by sharply negative sentiment in US equity markets and intensified by the breakdown of critical support levels. Bitcoin retreated to the $38.8K area. The amplitude of the decline from the peak at the start of the regular session in New York to the bottom at the opening of Asia exceeds 12%. Sellers have proven unbreakable (so far) the upper boundary of the downward price channel that has dominated bitcoin since mid-November. Another worrying fact is that Bitcoin's share has risen to 40.2% of the crypto's total cap. The implication is that investors are breaking out of altcoins even more sharply, as they are less confident in the ability of smaller coins to withstand the titans' fall. Without a sharp intraday reversal (chances for this are minimal), we can confidently expect an acceleration of long position liquidation in Bitcoin and further drawdowns. There is nowhere to look for support until the $30-33K area on the chart. Ether has given up support at $3K, quickly pulling back into the consolidation area of late September, ending up near $2.85K. The intensification of the selloff makes $2K the target of the initial downside wave. Earlier in 2021, the area of 30K for Bitcoin and near 2K for Ether was the bottom of a deep correction. This then attracted buyers, and the total market managed to rewrite highs. In that drawdown, the total capitalisation of cryptocurrencies was down to $1.2 trillion. If the first two cryptocurrencies were targeting lows last summer, it is logical to expect the entire market to return to the lows of that time. But then the external backdrop was highly favourable, as the US market was returning to growth with drawdowns in the 5% range, having already crossed that barrier earlier last year. The continued negative backdrop in equities sets up a deeper pullback in crypto. The crypto market's capitalisation could potentially shrink by half to the $830-900bn area before we see a new wave of long-term buyer inflows. For Bitcoin, this suggests the potential for a drop to 20k.
Shiba Inu price set to crash by 70% as critical support weakens

Shiba Inu price set to crash by 70% as critical support weakens

FXStreet News FXStreet News 21.01.2022 16:06
Shiba Inu price sees bears drilling down on an important area of support. SHIB price could see a nose dive reaction later today should the US session see accelerated selloffs. A break below the 200-day SMA could hold 70% of losses before plenty of support is found. Shiba Inu (SHIB) price continues to be controlled by bears after the dead-cat bounce in stock markets yesterday evening. With the Nasdaq closing sharply lower, giving up earlier gains, cryptocurrencies are being dragged into a selloff on its coattails, and bearish headwinds persist. Expect a further continuation of downside tests, with $0.00002576, up next, and a break below that opening up the possibility of SHIB price being decimated towards $0.00000655 – a 70% devaluation. Shiba Inu hanging by a thread before price action could collapse Shiba Inu price is in a vortex along with other financial market assets, after the US session saw a180 degree U-turn to the downside. The ASIA PAC and European sessions are also sharply lower and with risk assets being slashed across the board. This is being reflected in cryptocurrencies where a selloff is also taking place. At the moment, SHIB price is drilling down to $0.00002482, a level where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the monthly S1 support level intersect.This should offer plenty of support, but with current market sentiment so negative, it is not a given that investors will want to step in and support the trade. A break lower would see price next pause at $0.00001623, the S2 monthly support. The level of the S2 does not hold any historical relevance, however, making it relatively weak, and the only key level further down looks to be $0.00000607, just above the S3 monthly support, and the starting point of a Fibonacci retracement. Depending on how the US session will unfold, expect this to be on the cards in the days to come if markets enter into correction territory or even into a recession. The result would be SHIB shedding 70% of its market value from where it is currently trading. SHIB/USD daily chart Often enough, markets see an uptick after a gloomy negative day like yesterday. Investors start to come in and pick up interesting assets at a discount, and markets finally get to a point where a revaluation trade is made. This could be the same for Shiba Inu, with the 200-day SMA holding its ground, supporting price action, and a bullish candle starting to form with a test at the 55-day SMA around $0.00003395.
USDCHF, CADJPY And UK 100 - All Of Them Got Some Gains

USDCHF, CADJPY And UK 100 - All Of Them Got Some Gains

John Benjamin John Benjamin 24.01.2022 09:51
USDCHF tests daily support The Swiss franc rallied as traders poured into safe-haven currencies. The pair previously bounced off the critical floor (0.9090) on the daily chart. An oversold RSI in this demand zone brought in some buying interest. However, sentiment remains downbeat with the greenback struggling to clear offers around 0.9180. A fall below said support would trigger a new round of sell-off towards 0.9020 as late buyers rush to the exit. On the upside, a bullish breakout would open the door to the recent peak at 0.9275. CADJPY breaks key support The Canadian dollar slipped after disappointing retail sales in November. A bearish RSI divergence at the recent high (91.15) indicates a loss of momentum in the rally. The first drop below 90.60 prompted some buyers to bail out. Then the rebound met stiff selling pressure at 91.90. And this is a sign of exhaustion after a four-week-long uptrend. The loonie now has fallen through the major support at 90.60, with 89.80 as the target. As the RSI goes oversold, traders may look to sell the next bounce near 91.05. UK 100 tumbles through supports The FTSE 100 stalls as appetite subsides across risk assets. An overbought RSI on the daily chart suggests over-extension after a month-long rally. A pullback is necessary for the bulls to catch their breath. A drop below 7530 and then 7470 further weighs on short-term sentiment as profit-taking intensifies. The index is about to test 7380, a fresh demand zone from the November-December double top on the daily timeframe. The bulls need to reclaim 7540 before a rebound could gain traction.
Crypto Market News Sound "Less Negatively" This Time

Crypto Market News Sound "Less Negatively" This Time

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.01.2022 09:05
The cryptocurrency market is adding 0.2% in the last 24 hours to $1.63 trillion, experiencing some pause or rebound after a prolonged drawdown. Buyer interest in cryptocurrencies came at the expense of a rebound in US equities, where selloff hunters thought their time had come. The cryptocurrency market capitalisation without Bitcoin became less than 1 trillion last Saturday, and this round level now acts as near-term resistance. At one point on Monday, Bitcoin was down to $33K, but at the late US session, and now trades near $36.4K. Yesterday's drawdown almost closed the gap in July and also came from the lower boundary of the downward channel. The latter indicates that despite the prevalence of bears, the market is not yet ready to accelerate the decline. Bitcoin is gaining 2.8% in 24 hours, but most altcoins are losing ground. So, yesterday's rebound in bitcoin and the positive dynamics of the crypto market are more correctly attributed to technical factors: crypto investors are exiting altcoins to more liquid BTC, forming temporary bounces, but nothing more. The nearest target for BTC downside is $32.3K to close the gap entirely. However, it is worth being prepared to retest the July lows of $29.5-30K. Without support from the stock markets, these levels may not hold for long either. Ether also saw a bounce yesterday towards the end of the day, making it clear that the market is far from surrendering. After seven days of collapse, the primary altcoin managed to close Monday with a tiny gain. Nevertheless, there are no signs of breaking the downtrend yet. Moreover, a death cross is also forming over the ether, as the 50-day moving average is now only a couple of days away from crossing the 200-day from the top down. This signal is often followed by a new bearish attack.
Price of Gold Chart seems to Feel Good Despite The General Investors' Situation

Price of Gold Chart seems to Feel Good Despite The General Investors' Situation

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.01.2022 08:59
Gold is trading near $1840, adding 3.2% from the Jan 7 lows, as a hedge against increased financial market volatility. By comparison, the S&P500 has experienced its worst start to a year in history, losing more than 12% in that time in response to the harsh tone of US monetary policy comments. At a point like this, we often see a divergence in the dynamics of gold and equities, which revives talk of a safe haven. However, investors should not forget that increased equity market volatility, if it lasts long enough, at some point triggers a capitulation of gold buyers. The critical question for investors now is when there is a switch between a favourable decline for gold and a real fear triggering a circular sell-off in all assets. We are looking at the performance of the yen and the franc. Both currencies are relatively protected from geopolitical risks on the Eurozone sidelines. So far, these currencies have moderately slid against the dollar, which suggests that we have not yet reached the point of reducing leverage. This means that a relatively positive background also remains for gold, which allows us to talk about a continuation of the positive trend of the last two months for the time being. The next central resistance area looks at $1870-1905, between the last two peaks. Among other factors, gold may be hampered by further declines in the stock indices if yesterday's bounce attempt does not materialize today. A move above $1900 would signal the end of a long-term correction in gold and start a new momentum of growth above $2500, which would last for up to two years. The opposite is also true. A pullback under $1800 would end the long upside attempt and the long consolidation. The main near-term unknown is the outcome of Wednesday evening's Fed meeting. The central bank's statements and comments could determine the other trend of gold, supporting or, conversely, reversing the latest upside attempts.
(ADA) Cardano Price - ADA To USD Chart Shows It's a Little Above $1

(ADA) Cardano Price - ADA To USD Chart Shows It's a Little Above $1

FXStreet News FXStreet News 24.01.2022 16:12
Cardano's price action is slipping below the monthly S1 and crucial historical support. Once broken below this vital support, an area of 30% losses could be triggered. Expect bulls to await the FED meeting later this week before engaging in the market. Cardano (ADA) price action is not seeing the turn in sentiment that was expected with the start of a new trading week. Geopolitical talks are ramping up again this Monday regarding Russia, and investors are awaiting details of monetary tightening by the FED later this week, making investors an absent party in the cryptocurrency market for the first few days of the week. As $1.01 is under fire, expect a break below to open the next leg lower towards $0.69, shedding another 30% of the price value for the altcoin. Cardano price sees investors absent in the build up to the FED rate decision Cardano participants seem to be split in half, with only sellers and bears present in the market, while bulls and investors remain on the sideline. The biggest reasons for this are the political rhetoric on Russia that is ramping up again this morning after statements that NATO and the US would send in more military material and troops. Financial markets, meanwhile, are awaiting the outcome of the FED monetary policy meeting Wednesday. These two tail risks keep price action muted or further to the downside, with investors sidelined. ADA this morning is drilling down on the monthly S1 support level and the historical $1.01 level that goes back to March 05. Once this breaks, expect not much support to be present until $0.69 where the monthly S2 support level kicks in at around $0.75, but the most significant historical level is at $0.69 from February 06. Expect buyers to come in there as that would mean that ADA price action is back at 0% on a Year-To-Date (YTD) performance. ADA/USD daily chart As the FED holds the keys for a turn in sentiment short-term, expect a pop higher to unfold very quickly. A knee jerk reaction would wash out many short positions and bring price action quickly back towards $1.40, at the level of the monthly pivot and the green ascending trend line. Should the message from the FED by Wednesday be very dovish and in favour of risk-on sentiment, expect a possible test of $1.68 further to the upside for this week.
The 10 Public Companies With the Biggest Bitcoin Portfolios

Crypto Prices Reviewed - 25.01.2022 - by Korbinian Koller

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 25.01.2022 11:02
Bitcoin will create, not destroy BTC in US-Dollar, monthly chart, no rush: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of January 25th, 2022. All the typical fears came forward after last week’s price decline in the crypto space. Fears on why to get out of one’s bitcoin hodls. Even to walk away from the idea of bitcoin being a good store of value. But the emotional decision in market participation is often the wrong choice to come out ahead. Bitcoin will not be regulated away. With a near 100 billion tax revenue, bitcoin is unlikely to be banned in the USA. It has established itself in size as an income stream that no one could afford to give up. The monthly chart above shows that after the recent double top bitcoin´s two year strong up move has seen three months of a price decline to the 50% Fibonacci retracement line. To the right of the chart, we portray two fictitious candles as we see a likelihood of the future to unfold over the next two months.   BTC in US-Dollar, weekly chart, sideways to up: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of January 25th, 2022. On January 20th, the Federal Reserve Board released a discussion paper that examines the pros and cons of a potential U.S. central bank digital currency. News like this shakes up investor’s minds, fearing possible conversions where fiat currency savings might lose some of their value. On top, massive fear ruled the market over the last few days and weeks, a time when professionals know that opportunities are just around the corner. A look at the weekly chart reveals that the right top of the monthly double top had a substructure of a head and shoulders formation. Last week, the shoulder line broke and sent prices plummeting for a near 22% loss. Prices find themselves now in a value zone. In the histogram to the right of the chart, we see a fractal volume analysis. This analysis suggests supply in the price zone between US$36,000 and US$31,000. BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Bitcoin will create, not destroy: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of January 25th, 2022. As much as we expect a sideways zone for four to eight weeks before bitcoin prices head significantly higher, we already attempted three long trades on a daily time frame after prices entered into the value zone pointed out on the previous chart. Our approach of position building thanks to a quad exit strategy exploit low-risk entry points. Consequently, we were able in the past to catch bitcoin long-term trades near their price lows. News has more than once in the past accelerated price up moves for bitcoin in an unexpected fashion. As a result, we are actively scanning for low-risk opportunities already now. The price moves marked in white show how prices decline quickly in bitcoin, while typically trading sideways most of the time. Fortunately, rising prices act just the same way. The volume profile to the right of the chart shows four significant supply zones. (marked in orange dotted horizontal lines.) Bitcoin will create, not destroy: The good news is that government’s conversion of fiat money to digital might scare people into fleeing with their savings into bitcoin. Henceforth, they further stabilize this payment method. We mention this possible future for bitcoin since changes could be rapid, significant, and surprising. Consequently, bitcoin might find itself in a fast uptrend with high price targets to be expected. We also want to point out the nature of your participation in long-term bitcoin acquisitions. You are not only a speculator on a perfect investment, but also a holder of a positive value. A principle value that protects your freedom of purchasing power. A purchasing power that isn’t transparent allows you to conduct business as you please. Transactions without a controlling force casting a shadow over your choices. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|January 25th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
BTCUSD Chart Don't Show Us Any More Than $36.7k As Fed is About to Meet

BTCUSD Chart Don't Show Us Any More Than $36.7k As Fed is About to Meet

FXStreet News FXStreet News 25.01.2022 15:55
Bitcoin price is not yet ready for an uptrend as bulls cannot keep price above $36,709. Although BTC price posted a bullish candle yesterday, investors are still concerned and cannot look beyond the FED meeting tomorrow. BTC could shed another 10% towards $32,649 before investors go in massively for the long. Bitcoin (BTC) price is still not yet set for a rebound as bears can trip bulls and push the price back below the pivotal level at $36,709. As markets are trying to catch a breather, it does not look like bears will be going away that easily and could pressure BTC price action to the downside. Expect a nervous session to unfold with price swinging back and forth at that pivotal level, but ultimately likely to break to the downside towards $32,649, with a loss of 10% on the day. Bitcoin price is set for a nervous session Bitcoin saw bulls coming in strong once price action slipped briefly below the monthly S2 at $33,742. Bulls bought everything in sight and pushed price action back up above $36,709 but failed to safely position the trade for a further uptick in the coming trading session. As BTC price is already undergoing some profit-taking, it looks as if investors are still awaiting confirmation that the pain trade is over. BTC price will probably trade a nervous session today, as markets will want to wait for the FED meeting later tomorrow and will not want to preposition for the possibility the FED disappoints or delivers an even more hawkish message. Expect choppy price action around $36,709, and possibly another leg lower towards the monthly S2 at $33,742. A test and break below yesterday's low at $32,649 is not an impossibility if Nasdaq sheds multiple percentages points off its value again. BTC/USD daily chart If global sentiment changes and pushes US equities in the green later this afternoon, expect a bullish flood to come into cryptocurrencies. That would see BTC price testing $39,780 to the upside with the monthly S1 support as resistance from any upside. If the rally is large and broad, expect even $44,088 to be on the cards, and for that to erase a large part of the downturn since the beginning of this year.
Polkadot (DOT) Explained - A Pinch Of Origins And History

Polkadot Price +2.3%, LUNA Price -7.4%, ETH Price 1.1% and BTC -0.6%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 26.01.2022 09:33
Bitcoin decreased 0.6% on Tuesday, ending the day around $36,600 while Ethereum lost 1.1%. Other leading altcoins from the top ten showed mixed dynamics: from a 7.4% decline of Terra to a 2.3% rise of Polkadot. According to CoinGecko, the total capitalization of the crypto market sank 1.1% to $1.74 trillion over the past day. In total, the crypto market broke the recent days' decline after bitcoin hit lows of the last six months on Monday, dropping below $33,000. This was followed by a sharp rebound upwards to $37,500. The US market was the reason. Throughout January, stocks are falling in anticipation of the Fed's monetary policy tightening. The decline in risky assets also had a negative impact on bitcoin, which has already lost about 20% since the beginning of the month. A correlation between the benchmark cryptocurrency and Nasdaq has reached a new all-time high, according to Bloomberg. On Wednesday, all the attention will be riveted to the FOMC meeting. If the regulator tightens its rhetoric and announces the upcoming rate hike as early as March, all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, could suffer significantly. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged El Salvador to move away from bitcoin as a legal currency. MicroStrategy has stated that it would continue to buy BTC despite its decline in recent months. Its worth noting that a week ago, crypto funds recorded the first inflow of funds into their assets in the last six weeks.
Considering Portfolios In Times Of, Among Others, Inflation...

EUR To GBP and EURUSD Will Go Down If Dollar Strengthens?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 26.01.2022 09:39
The US dollar has been gaining steadily against the developed countries' currencies since the beginning of the year. By the way, the yen was an exception: it has been adding 1.8% over the past 11 days after the stock market entered the turbulence zone due to a reassessment of the monetary policy outlook. According to historical data, the Fed often finds itself at the forefront of the monetary policy cycle. That is used to be translating into a stronger USD in the months before and after the first tightening. So the question is in what currency pairs it is most profitable to buy the dollar now. Among the developed and liquid currencies, three scenarios can be considered. The first way is to sell EURUSD. The euro is weaker than the dollar due to the ECB being on several steps behind the Fed. That means that the EU rates will remain lower for a longer period of time, and the balance of bond yields will be shifted towards the dollar. Given the pace the Fed intends to take in tightening monetary policy, this yield gap promises to widen further. Another way is to bet that monetary tightening is stressing the declining markets drag the pound down. We should keep in mind that the Bank of England has already approved its first tightening policy step, and in this case it's not far behind the Fed. At the same time, it's closely correlated with falling market indices. Need to mention that GBPUSD is still far from being oversold with a wide room for further decline. The third way is often more obvious. Traders may consider selling the currencies of developing countries, which are much more sensitive to the Fed monetary policy changes. However, EMs have been raising rates for almost a year, so selling them now is a bet on market volatility in the near term. For the longer perspective, higher interest rates promise to level out short-term gains. In this case, the dollar's down turn may be faster than in the euro.
Crypto and FOMC As Always Interact, Waiting for FED Decision and Tesla (TSLA) Reports

Crypto and FOMC As Always Interact, Waiting for FED Decision and Tesla (TSLA) Reports

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 26.01.2022 12:20
Today’s highly anticipated FED decision could have wide ranging implications across markets as it could alter the current state of economic policy and ultimately favour some markets over others. While there are several scenarios of what’s expected today from the US central bank, the most likely one seems to be a rate increase in March while maintaining QE for the time being , which many investors could see as a slight step back compared to the tone used by the FED recently. On the other hand, if the FOMC decides to surprise investors with a more hawkish than expected approach, it could lead to significant reactions across stock markets and cryptocurrencies even after the recent corrections we have already seen so far. The FED must be very cautious today as it appears to be stuck in a challenging situation, unable to ignore record inflation levels while also having a market that relies heavily on its fiscal policy and any misstep could have greater than expected consequences. Cryptocurrencies attempt to recover ahead of FOMC decision Cryptocurrencies and tech stocks have seen the majority of the volatility and pullbacks from recent uncertainty noticed across a wide range of markets to different extents. However, due to their exceedingly volatile nature, cryptocurrency prices moved significantly with the total market cap falling around $1 Trillion as the majority of top 100 tokens dropped around 20% reaching the lowest level in several months and shaking investor confidence in the sector. On the other hand, we are seeing an attempt to recover today with most tokens trading slightly higher ahead of the FOMC decision as some investors expect the US central bank to back off after seeing the massive reaction it’s recent announcements have had. While it remains to be seen whether the FED will go through with its plan, it is clear that a significant increase in volatility has the potential to scare many investors who may not be interested in projects for the long term and are mainly attempting to speculate on their prices for short term gains. Investors await Tesla earnings report While many investors will be focusing on the FED’s key decision today, earning season has also been a main topic of discussion with several major companies already publishing their reports. We have seen a variety of contrasting results with some exceeding expectations while others disappointed and ultimately reflected that in a significant share price drop. Tesla will be publishing it’s results today and investors will be looking closely to ascertain if the company is living up to the forecasts or if it also appears to be struggling with rising inflation and supply chain issues. A better than expected result could renew investor confidence in the company that has been able to impress many since being listed on the S&P 500 not long ago, while a disappointment could impact future prospects in addition to share price in the short term.  
Binance Coin price bound for 15% upswing as bulls make a comeback

Binance Coin price bound for 15% upswing as bulls make a comeback

FXStreet News FXStreet News 26.01.2022 16:40
Binance Coin has been range trading for the past four days between $335 and $389. BNB price shows bulls pushing bears against the high of this week, ready for a breakout. Expect bears to be stopped out and open momentum for bulls to run the price up to $452. Binance Coin (BNB) price was able to find a floor at $335 with the monthly S2 monthly support level as an area where bulls were interested in getting involved in the price action. BNB price is now quickly ramping up and squeezing bears out of their entries at $389, which is acting as the weekly high. With the squeeze, a pop is set to unfold towards $452, the first significant level of resistance that could halt the rally near-term. BNB price set for a bullish breakout Binance Coin sees bulls trading away from the monthly S2 support level at $335 tested twice and bulls jumping on the buying volume to get involved in the price action. Backed by the green ascending trendline, a bullish entry makes sense as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has just exited oversold territory. As such, sellers do not have much incentive to stay further in their short positions as further gains look limited for now. BNB price thus offers a solid entry point, and bulls are now ready to break above $389, the weekly high and short-term cap that has kept BNB price limited to the upside this week. As bears are being pushed against that level, expect their stops to be run once bulls break above it, which will trigger a massive demand for buying volume and squeeze price action even higher. The monthly S1 does not hold much historical reference, so $452 makes the most sense with the 200-day Simple Moving Average just above as a cap, that needs to be broken to start speaking of an uptrend. BNB/USD daily chart In the wake of the Fed meeting later today, most investors will be holding their breath further into the afternoon. If the Fed delivers a hawkish tone or even hike today, that will set a negative tone for global markets and see a sharp decline in risk assets led by equities and cryptocurrencies. Expect BNB price action to result in bulls being pushed against the monthly S2 support and the green ascending trend line around $320-$335.
Wednesday (26.01.2022): BTC -0.6%, ETH +0.2%, LUNA decreases -6.6%

Wednesday (26.01.2022): BTC -0.6%, ETH +0.2%, LUNA decreases -6.6%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 27.01.2022 09:46
Bitcoin decreased by 0.6% on Wednesday, ending the day at around $36,400. Ethereum added 0.2%, while other top-ten altcoins mostly saw declines from 3.1% (Binance Coin) to 6.6% (Terra, an outsider of the day). According to CoinGecko, the total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 0.5%, to $1.73 trillion. Bitcoin showed positive dynamics all day against the backdrop of growing stock indices. Up until the Fed meeting, the first cryptocurrency was gaining over 6%, hitting 5-day highs above $38,800. However, BTC began to fall almost immediately after the announcement of the results of the Fed's two-day meeting. The regulator announced a curtailment of bond purchases in early March, as well as an imminent rate hike, followed by a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet. The fall of bitcoin accelerated along with stock indices in half an hour when the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, started his press conference. He noted that rising inflation could force the regulator to raise interest rates more aggressively. The first cryptocurrency may finally complete its upward correction if risky assets resume and intensify the fall after the Fed meeting. In Russia, buyers are now engaged in the withdrawal of capital and deprive the country's economy of financing, as announced by the Bank of Russia. Last week, the regulator proposed to ban the circulation and mining of cryptocurrencies in the territory of the Russian Federation. The State Duma and the Ministry of Finance, on the contrary, are in favour of regulation, not a ban on the industry. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday urged the government and the Central Bank to come to a consensus on the regulation of cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, Turkish President Erdogan instructed the ruling party to study the impact of cryptocurrencies on the economy. At the same time, the US Internal Revenue Service said that non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are used for illegal activities, and celebrities are spreading this by promoting NFTs.
XRP (-0.9%), LUNA (-8.3%), ETH (-2.5%). Bitcoin decrased by 0.4%

XRP (-0.9%), LUNA (-8.3%), ETH (-2.5%). Bitcoin decrased by 0.4%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 28.01.2022 09:07
On Thursday, Bitcoin lost 0.4%, ending the day around $36,200, and Ethereum fell 2.5%. The other leading altcoins in the top ten also mostly saw declines, from XRP down 0.9% to Terra with -8.3%. According to CoinGecko, the total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 2.3% per day, to $1.72 trillion. Bitcoin tried to strengthen on Thursday morning but began to decline in the American session along with US stock indices. The US stock market fell following the results of trading on Thursday, although it opened with growth. The high-tech Nasdaq suffered particularly heavy losses. Investors continue to withdraw from US stocks amid the expected tightening of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The day before, the central bank, following its meeting, signalled that it would start raising interest rates in March, curtailing the entire stimulus program at the beginning of the month. In the future, the regulator will begin to reduce the Fed's balance sheet. In such circumstances, investors will continue to reduce their positions on risky assets, and Cryptocurrencies may be hit first. Meanwhile, bitcoin is trying to stay above the $35,000 mark, taking advantage of some slowdown in the fall of the stock markets. However, if the fall in stocks accelerates, the crypto market will also accelerate its decline. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has rejected Fidelity's application to launch a bitcoin ETF. Fidelity itself warned investors that bitcoin was in a “liquidity storm” due to high volatility in the stock market.
DXY Hits Level of July, 2020 and Affects EURUSD

DXY Hits Level of July, 2020 and Affects EURUSD

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 28.01.2022 10:26
The US dollar rewrote its 1.5-year highs on Thursday, sending EURUSD under 1.1150. After the FOMC meeting, the pair fell in total by 1.5%, leaving a two-month consolidation with a sharp movement. Friday's small rollback from extremes is likely a local profit fixation by the end of the week and month. History suggests that the US currency begins to add about 2-3 quarters before the first rate hike and continues to be in positive territory for about the same time after. We believe that this long story should be adjusted to the new reality in which interest rates are the starting point. Namely, the first point of tightening monetary conditions is now the beginning of the curtailment of purchases on the balance sheet and not the first increase. The start of the dollar's growth last year was the beginning of a public discussion of curtailment. And now, seven months later, the dollar is halfway up with an 8.5% increase from the area of last year's lows. The second half of this wave is unlikely to be as powerful. We only assume that the dollar has a 3-4% growth potential in the area of 100.3-101 due to monetary policy changes. This will return the US currency to the area of steady highs in 2020, excluding two weeks of the most violent market crash. The EURUSD rate in this scenario may fall to 1.07-1.08 before finding a more substantial base of buyers. However, investors and traders should also remember that monetary policy is far from the only driver for currencies. The markets' attention can quickly switch to the debt sustainability of the Eurozone countries and the pace of economic recovery in the world.
COT Euro Currency Speculators boosted their bullish bets to 23-week high

COT Euro Currency Speculators boosted their bullish bets to 23-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 29.01.2022 18:55
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further gains of bullish bets in the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculators raised their bullish bets for a sixth consecutive week this week and for the seventh time in the past eight weeks. Over the last six-week time-frame, Euro bets have improved by a total of +43,439 contracts, going from -11,879 net positions on December 14th to +31,560 net positions this week. This week’s net speculator standing marks the highest level for Euro bets since August 17th, a span of twenty-three weeks. Joining the Euro (6,976 contracts) with positive changes this week were the yen (12,606 contracts), US Dollar Index (427 contracts), Australian dollar (5,181 contracts), Swiss franc (2,014 contracts), Canadian dollar (4,825 contracts) and Bitcoin (515 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the British pound sterling (-7,516 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,442 contracts), Brazil real (-1,247 contracts), Russian ruble (-2,478 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-5,710 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jan-25-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index USD Index 52,328 72 36,861 89 -42,505 4 5,644 78 EUR 682,952 77 31,560 45 -56,258 60 24,698 15 GBP 182,040 27 -7,763 68 16,842 40 -9,079 37 JPY 197,830 53 -68,273 25 82,863 77 -14,590 18 CHF 39,742 14 -8,796 55 13,479 46 -4,683 50 CAD 146,448 28 12,317 60 -19,581 44 7,264 44 AUD 190,020 75 -83,273 8 97,749 92 -14,476 17 NZD 53,316 50 -10,773 53 13,281 51 -2,508 23 MXN 150,142 26 -790 27 -1,478 72 2,268 53 RUB 46,883 48 3,944 23 -4,288 76 344 44 BRL 46,657 54 -12,616 52 11,258 48 1,358 83 Bitcoin 11,756 64 -34 100 -478 0 512 25   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 36,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 427 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,434 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.8 3.4 14.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.4 84.6 3.8 – Net Position: 36,861 -42,505 5,644 – Gross Longs: 41,772 1,777 7,658 – Gross Shorts: 4,911 44,282 2,014 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.5 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.4 4.0 78.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.7 -9.8 3.0   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 31,560 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,976 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,584 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.2 55.5 11.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.6 63.8 8.0 – Net Position: 31,560 -56,258 24,698 – Gross Longs: 213,408 379,154 79,273 – Gross Shorts: 181,848 435,412 54,575 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.7 59.8 15.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.3 -11.2 -6.2   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,763 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,516 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -247 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.1 64.7 13.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.4 55.5 18.7 – Net Position: -7,763 16,842 -9,079 – Gross Longs: 36,666 117,812 24,909 – Gross Shorts: 44,429 100,970 33,988 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.4 39.6 36.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 31.0 -31.7 22.0   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -68,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,879 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.0 81.0 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.5 39.1 16.4 – Net Position: -68,273 82,863 -14,590 – Gross Longs: 15,866 160,178 17,950 – Gross Shorts: 84,139 77,315 32,540 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.9 77.3 18.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 5.9 6.4   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,796 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,810 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.0 69.4 25.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.2 35.5 36.9 – Net Position: -8,796 13,479 -4,683 – Gross Longs: 1,999 27,591 9,996 – Gross Shorts: 10,795 14,112 14,679 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.6 46.0 49.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.8 -1.5 5.2   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,492 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.3 39.3 21.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.9 52.6 16.6 – Net Position: 12,317 -19,581 7,264 – Gross Longs: 53,129 57,492 31,539 – Gross Shorts: 40,812 77,073 24,275 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.6 43.5 44.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.7 -12.1 -15.8   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -83,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,181 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -88,454 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.1 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.0 80.7 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.8 29.3 16.2 – Net Position: -83,273 97,749 -14,476 – Gross Longs: 15,121 153,386 16,371 – Gross Shorts: 98,394 55,637 30,847 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.8 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.6 91.8 17.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.1 -0.5 12.3   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,331 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.9 63.2 5.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.1 38.3 9.9 – Net Position: -10,773 13,281 -2,508 – Gross Longs: 15,948 33,712 2,784 – Gross Shorts: 26,721 20,431 5,292 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.2 50.9 23.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.2 7.9 -2.2   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -790 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,710 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,920 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.3 51.6 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.8 52.6 2.4 – Net Position: -790 -1,478 2,268 – Gross Longs: 66,449 77,473 5,892 – Gross Shorts: 67,239 78,951 3,624 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.0 72.2 52.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -5.8 17.0   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -12,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,247 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,369 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.9 45.6 7.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 73.0 21.5 4.7 – Net Position: -12,616 11,258 1,358 – Gross Longs: 21,434 21,274 3,541 – Gross Shorts: 34,050 10,016 2,183 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.7 48.4 83.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.7 8.4 21.0   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 3,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,478 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,422 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.4 63.3 4.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.0 72.4 3.6 – Net Position: 3,944 -4,288 344 – Gross Longs: 15,179 29,669 2,015 – Gross Shorts: 11,235 33,957 1,671 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 22.7 75.7 43.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -29.8 30.5 -20.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -34 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 515 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -549 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 73.8 2.4 12.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 74.1 6.5 8.1 – Net Position: -34 -478 512 – Gross Longs: 8,678 285 1,469 – Gross Shorts: 8,712 763 957 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 24.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.9 -60.9 -0.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Bitcoin, Fed, Stocks and Bonds

Bitcoin, Fed, Stocks and Bonds

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 01.02.2022 13:18
Bitcoin, the plan, and its execution The Plan: It is an election year when Democrats will project political pressure upon the Federal Reserve to not risk through aggressive policy changes a stock market collapse to keep their votes. As a result, more money printing expands inflation, which supports the interest for bitcoin as an inflation hedge. Should we see in opposition for whatever reason a rapid stock market decline, the investor would unlikely be interested in owning stock or bonds. While initially, bitcoin prices would likely fall alongside the markets, money will likely flow into bitcoin shortly afterward. The execution: With bitcoins prices suppressed from their recent decline (down 52% from its last all-time high at around US$69,000), we have another edge for minimizing exposure risk. BTC in US-Dollar, monthly chart, high likely turning points: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of January 31st, 2022. The chart above depicts five supply zones we have our eye on. We will try identifying low-risk entry points on smaller time frames at or near these points and reduce risk further with our quad exit strategy. We already had entries near zone 1 and 2 and posted those live in our free Telegram channel. BTC in US-Dollar, weekly chart, bitcoin, the plan, and its execution, reload trading: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 1st, 2022. Once the more significant time frame turning point is identified (white arrow), we will add what we call ‘reload’ trades (see chart above) on the smaller weekly time frame. We do so by identifying low-risk entries in congestion zones (yellow boxes) on the way up. We aim to arrive near the elections in November with a sizable position that is due to our exit strategy being risk-free. Playing with the market’s money will allow for positive execution psychology and ease us to observe our position through an expected volatility period, with further profit-taking into possible volatile upswings that are only temporary in nature. BTC in US-Dollar, Quarterly Chart, long-term profit potential: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of February 1st, 2022. While this year’s midterm trading on the long side of the bitcoin market could provide for substantial income from the 50% profit-taking of each individual trade and reload based on our quad exit strategy, the real goal is to have a remaining position size that could potentially go to unfathomable heights, since we see in the long term the inflation problem not going away but rather culminating in a bitcoin rise that could be substantially much larger in percentage than alternative inflation hedges like real estate, gold, silver and alike. Not to say that we find it also essential to hold these asset classes for wealth preservation. The quarterly chart above illustrates the potential of such a position. We illustrated both in time (six years) and price (US$ 134,000) our most conservative model in this chart. Bitcoin, the plan, and its execution: We see no scenario where inflation is just going away. The above narrative shows that a short-term fueling of inflation is likely. Furthermore, a high-risk scenario is fueling inflation even more. Should markets decline rapidly, it can be expected that money printing and buying up the market is the most predominant solution applied. Consequently, the average investor would wake up relieved that prices wouldn’t decline any further but liquidating their holdings in a further inflated fiat currency will have massively decreased purchasing power. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 1st, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
SolScan - Many Of Investors Probably Don't Know This Term

(SOL) Solana Price Is Quite Far From End of 2021 Tops

FXStreet News FXStreet News 31.01.2022 15:49
Solana price keeps hovering above the monthly S2 support. SOL price sees RSI slowly climbing out of the oversold area on the RSI. Expect a pickup in bullish sentiment once Nasdaq confirms risk-on will be the central theme for this week. Solana (SOL) price saw its bullish reversal stop short on Sunday and is now nearing the monthly S2 support level again at $89.28. Although ASIA PAC equity and European indices are firmly in the green, the sentiment has not spilled over to US futures and cryptocurrencies yet. Expect a bounce off the monthly S2 support level and look for a first test at $100 to the upside before continuation this week towards $130.70. Solana bulls are pushing the RSI away from the oversold area Solana price action saw bulls in good shape on Friday and Saturday, erasing a part of the games and trying to reach $100 to the upside. Instead, the sharp uptick stopped on Sunday as cryptocurrencies again looked heavy, with trading starting on Monday. Strangely enough, the most critical Asian indices and European indices are firmly in the green, where US futures are somewhat mixed and relatively flat during the European trading session. Expect for SOL price to stay hovering around this S2 level as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still at or in an oversold area, limiting any potential downside for bears. This should help bulls to use this window of opportunity to go long and make a bounce off the S2 level at $89.28. Once US futures kick into gear and take over the sentiment from Europe, expect some bullish uptick again, targeting $100 intraday and $130.70 for this week. SOL/USD daily chart On the downside, a break below the S2 support level would see a dip towards the low from last week, around $82. If European indices give up their gains and turn red, together with US futures firmly in the red, expect to see another wave of selling, with a possible nosedive threat towards $58.84. With that move, the RSI would overshoot firmly into being oversold.
BTC +0.6%, ETH gains 3.7%, Solana (SOL) Increases By 12.8%

BTC +0.6%, ETH gains 3.7%, Solana (SOL) Increases By 12.8%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 02.02.2022 12:42
Bitcoin rose 0.6% on Tuesday, ending the day around $38,700. Ethereum added 3.7%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 are growing: from 0.5% (Binance Coin) to 12.8% (Solana). The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, rose 1.5% to $1.86 trillion overnight. Bitcoin hit a week-and-a-half high above $39,000 on Tuesday but then pulled back, offsetting almost all of the gains. The first cryptocurrency was boosted by positive stock indexes and a weakening dollar, but sellers began taking profits on long positions. Over the last eight days, BTC gained almost 20%, recouping more than half of the failure of the second half of January, and buyers decided not to take risks. Ahead is solid psychological resistance at the circular $40,000 level, which supported the first half of January. Technically, Bitcoin has stalled its gains as it approaches the upper boundary of the descending channel. Traders are waiting for new signals about whether the recovery in risk demand will continue or whether the latest rebound will soon be choked off. The result of this struggle will determine whether we will see a break from the downtrend or whether the downtrend will continue again. El Salvador president Nayib Bukele is confident that bitcoin will still show tremendous growth. It's all about the fact that there are 50 million millionaires in the world. If they wanted to buy a coin, there wouldn't be enough for everyone, as the entire bitcoin issue wouldn't exceed 21 million. MicroStrategy added another 660 BTC on the recent market decline. In total, MicroStrategy already has more than 125,000 bitcoins. Russian government officials told Bloomberg that Russians own $214 billion worth of cryptocurrencies. That's about 12% of the total crypto market capitalisation.
GBP To USD Chart - A Small Step For GBP As It Strenghtens And Reaches Ca. 1.3500

GBP To USD Chart - A Small Step For GBP As It Strenghtens And Reaches Ca. 1.3500

FXStreet News FXStreet News 01.02.2022 15:49
The British pound climbs in the North American session, 0.34%. The market sentiment is mixed as European stocks rise while US futures point towards a lower open. BoE’s 25 basis points rate hike is fully priced in by investors. The GBP/USD remains downward biased, as it failed to breach above the 100-DMA. After ending January with losses of 0.65%, the British pound snaps three-day losses, climbing 0.31%. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.3495, though retreating from the 100-day moving average (DMA) lying at 1.3514. As depicted by European stock indices rising, the market sentiment is mixed, but US equity futures underpins the cash market towards a lower open. Bank of England (BoE) expected to post back-to-back rate hikes In the meantime, money market futures, as shown per the CME Group BOEWATCH tool, 100% of market participants expect an increase of 25 basis points, from 0.25% to 0.50%. Sources cited by CNBC said that “With the Bank Rate reaching 0.5%, we expect the MPC to confirm that all APF (asset purchase facility) reinvestments will cease following the February decision.” Source: CME Group Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed President Harker crossed the wires. He commented that the Fed is not behind the curve, and he expects a rate hike of 25 basis points, four in the year. Concerning the balance sheet reduction, he said that the US central bank could begin the Quantitative Tightening (QT) once the Federal Funds Rates (FFR) hit 1% to 1.25%. The UK economic docket featured the BoE Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals for December. The former came at £0.8B in line with expectations, while the latter rose to 71.051K, higher than the 66K foreseen. Concerning the Market Manufacturing PMI Final for January, increased to 57.3, a tick more elevated than the 56.9 estimated, though trailed the previous month 57.9, showing some slowing, due to the Omicron hit. Across the pond, Manufacturing PMI released by IHS Markit and the ISM for January will be closely watched by GBP/USD traders. That alongside the JOLTs Job Opening for December could shed some light, in anticipation of Thursday’s Jobless Claims and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook The GBP/USD is downward biased. During the European session, the pair retreated at the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 1.3514, but any downward moves might be capped by the 50-DMA lying at 1.3418. To the upside, the GBP/USD will face resistance at 1.3500, followed by the 100-DMA at 1.3514 and an eight-month-old downslope trendline around the 1.3530-40 region. On the flip side, the 50-DMA at 1.3418 is the first support level, followed by the 1.3400 figure, and then the YTD low at 1.3357.
Shiba Inu price consolidation set for a bullish breakout with 28% appreciation

Shiba Inu price consolidation set for a bullish breakout with 28% appreciation

FXStreet News FXStreet News 02.02.2022 15:56
Shiba Inu is seeing lower highs and lower lows compressing price action around $0.00002179. SHIB price is next set for a bullish breakout with several tailwinds present in equities. Expect for SHIB bulls to lift price action back above the 200-day SMA, potentially gaining 24%. Shiba Inu (SHIB) has been stuck in consolidation since January 22 with lower highs and higher lows, punching in both buyers and sellers towards each other with the scene set for a breakout. From the looks of it, that will be a bullish breakout, supported by tailwinds from global equities being on the front foot, with the Nasdaq leading the charge. Expect bulls to break above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) in the process, and try to reach $0.00002782, the 78.6% Fibonacci level. SHIB bullish breakout holding 28% gains Shiba Inu price may have had its low for the year after hitting $0.00001730 on January 22. Since then, the price has shifted a bit sideways around $0.00002170, with lower highs and higher lows going for consolidation between buyers and sellers. The price in SHIB is so condensed now that a breakout is due. As global markets are on the front foot and risk assets are leading the charge, these tailwinds will spin-off towards cryptocurrencies and set the stage for a bullish breakout towards $0.00002782 as target. SHIB price will, in that process, take out the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $0.00002562, which does not hold much importance seeing it only got breached on one occasion. Bulls will instead want to look out for $0.00002782, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci level and is an essential indicator that there might be an uptrend in the making. More upside will depend on how the tailwinds behave as the 55-day SMA looks quite heavy around $0.00003000. SHIB/USD daily chart Alternatively, the consolidation could still see a bearish breakout, with bears trapping bulls and running price action back to $0.00001730, or possibly even $0.00001500 back down onto the monthly S1 support level. The reason for the bearish breakout could come from very choppy economic data that could start to point to a global recession with elevated prices and job numbers worsening again. That would trigger a global risk-off wave that could put cryptocurrencies on the backfoot.
Having A Look At The Markets Considering Tensions, COVID-19 And National Banks Decisions

ECB February Preview: Euro bulls hope for a hawkish ECB on hot EU inflation

FXStreet News FXStreet News 02.02.2022 15:56
EUR/USD has been rising steadily since the beginning of the week. Annual HICP in the euro area came in much higher than expected in January. Euro could lose its bullish momentum if ECB downplays inflation concerns. The shared currency suffered heavy losses against the dollar last week after FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the Fed’s hawkish stance in the face of high inflation. Following a sharp decline to its lowest level since June 2020, however, EUR/USD managed to stage a decisive rebound during the first half of the week and advanced beyond 1.1300. In addition to renewed dollar weakness, hot inflation data from the euro area helped the pair push higher mid-week. Eurostat reported that annual inflation in the euro area, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), rose to 5.1% in January from 5% in December. This print came in higher than the market expectation of 4.4%. The Core HICP, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, edged lower to 2.3% from 2.6% but surpassed analysts’ estimate of 1.9%. With the first FOMC meeting out of the way, markets now await the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy announcements and the euro could find it difficult to extend its rebound if investors are reminded of the policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB. ECB on hold The ECB is widely expected to leave its policy settings unchanged following the February policy meeting. In December, the ECB confirmed that it will end the Pandemic Purchase Emergency Programme (PEPP) in March. To soften the policy transition, the ECB announced that it will increase the monthly purchases under the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) to €40 billion in Q2 and €30 billion in Q3 from the current level of €20 billion. The bank intends to maintain the APP purchases at a pace of €20 billion for “as long as necessary” from the last quarter of the year. While speaking at the press conference in December, ECB President Christine Lagarde refrained from dismissing the possibility of a rate increase before the end of 2022 and helped the common currency stay resilient against its rivals for the remainder of the year. Commenting on the inflation outlook earlier in the month, several ECB members sounded relatively optimistic and EUR/USD struggled to preserve its bullish momentum. ECB policymaker Peter Kazimir noted that inflation in the eurozone was expected to peak in the “nearest months” before starting to decline. Moreover, ECB chief economist Philip Lane said that they are not yet seeing a big response from wages to inflation. Similarly, Lagarde explained that energy costs were rising due to temporary factors and added that there were no signs of wages being “bid up.” Hawkish scenario: In case Lagarde hints at the possibility of a rate hike before the end of the year after the latest inflation report, that could be assessed as a hawkish tilt in the ECB’s policy outlook and provide a boost to the euro. Currently, eurozone money markets are pricing in 30 basis points of rate hikes by the end of the year. Dovish scenario: Lagarde might opt to communicate that inflation is close to peaking in the eurozone and outright reject a rate hike in 2022 while pushing back against market rate-hike bets. Lagarde might also mention that they don’t need to normalize the policy as fast as the Fed by highlighting the differences in economic conditions in the US and the EU. Neutral scenario: Given the fact that the ECB will not release its revised economic projections until March, it would be surprising to see an obvious shift in the ECB’s tone. The accounts of the ECB’s December meeting revealed that policymakers are divided over the inflation outlook and February's policy statement is unlikely to touch on that. The ECB should reiterate that it stands ready to act if inflation becomes persistent in the euro area and that it remains committed to ensuring price stability. EUR/USD Technical Analysis Unless the ECB delivers a hawkish surprise, the policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB should continue to favour the dollar over the euro and limit EUR/USD’s upside. At the time of press, the pair was trading near 1.1300, where the 20-day and the 50-day SMAs are located. In case EUR/USD starts using these levels as support, it could target the next static resistance at 1.1375 ahead of 1.1430 (100-day SMA). Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart stays near 50, suggesting that the pair needs to push higher to convince investors that the latest advance is the beginning of an uptrend rather than a correction. On the flip side, a dovish ECB statement could attract bears and cause the pair to slide toward 1.1200 (psychological level, static level). If this support fails, EUR/USD (https://www.fxstreet.com/currencies/eurusd) could touch a fresh 19-month low at 1.1100.
Seasonality favors another wave up

Seasonality favors another wave up

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 03.02.2022 21:05
However, these gains attracted some profit-taking at prices around US$1,850. And in the aftermath of last week’s FOMC meeting, gold sold off for three days in a row. This merciless sell-off only ended at US$1,780 wiping out nearly all gains since mid of December. It was some form of the classic “the bull walks up the stairs and the bear jumps out the window” pattern, which is a typical behavior within an uptrend.Hence and exactly for this reason, the deep pullback did not necessarily end the recovery in the gold market. Of course, in the bigger picture, the entire precious metals sector is still stuck in this tenacious correction which has been ongoing since August 2020. In the short-term, however, the pullback has created an oversold setup and once again proved that there is buying interest at prices below US$1,800.US-Dollar index, daily chart as of February 3rd, 2022. False breakout?US-Dollar index, daily chart as of February 3rd, 2022.It also seems that the US-Dollar might have hit an important top last Thursday and is now moving lower, which would be very supportive for gold, of course. Everyone is expecting the US-Dollar to go up as the FED is expected to raise interest rates. But the US-Dollar has been discounting this “hike and taper scenario” for several months already. Actually, the US-Dollar index has been rallying +8.8% since May 2021! During the recent FOMC meeting, however, big money might have used the seeming breakout to sell their dollar longs into a favorable high-volume setup. At the same time, stock market sentiment was extremely bearish. Hence, last week likely triggered a top in the US-Dollar and a violent back and forth bottoming pattern for the stock-market.US-Dollar index, monthly chart as of February 3rd, 2022. A series of lower highs!US-Dollar index, monthly chart as of February 3rd, 2022.In the big picture, a top in the US-Dollar would continue the series of lower highs for the dollar. As well, the US-Dollar is moving within a huge triangle since 2001. After a series of three lower highs since December 2016, a test of the lower boundary of the triangle would give gold prices an extreme tailwind in the coming years. Hence, even if it´s hard to come up with any bearish arguments for the dollar at the moment, technically it looks like the dollar could roll over.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart from February 3rd, 2020. Gold’s behavior is changing.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 3rd, 2022.For gold, a weaker US-Dollar would be very helpful. In fact, since the beginning of this week, we perceive an ongoing change in gold’s behavior. We are getting impressed by its intraday strength! Every small pullback around and below US$1,800 was rather quickly bought again. So far, gold has only recovered 38.2% of last week’s nasty sell-off and currently sits pretty much exactly at its 200-day moving average (US$1,805).But the fresh buy signal from the slow stochastic oscillator on the daily chart promises more upside. Hence, we see gold fuming its way higher in the coming weeks. In the next step, gold will have to overcome the 38.2% resistance around US$1,808.50 and then continue its recovery towards US$1,830. In any case, the seasonal component is at least very favorable until the end of February. Therefore, even higher price targets are conceivable too. But gold needs to breakout above the triangle and clear US$1,850. Only then a more sustainable bullish momentum would emerge which could last further into spring.If, on the other hand, gold takes out US$1,780, the recovery since mid of December might be over already and the medium-term correction might likely pick up again.Conclusion: Seasonality favors another wave upOverall, we assume that seasonality favors another wave up in the gold market. Thus, another rally towards at least US$1,830 is realistic. We are short-term bullish, mid-term neutral to skeptic and long-term very bullish for gold.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|February 3rd, 2022|Tags: EUR/USD, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, Gold neutral, precious metals, Reyna Gold, US-Dollar|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
Decentralized Autonomous Organisation - Another Addition To Our Personal Dictionaries

MATIC Price Prediction: Polygon hints at a retest of $1.95

FXStreet News FXStreet News 03.02.2022 16:35
MATIC price is hovering above the weekly support level at $1.44, hinting at a move higher. Investors can expect Polygon to rally at least 15% before encountering a tough hurdle. A breakdown of the $1.41 support level will invalidate the bullish thesis. MATIC price recovery after the January flash crash was good but is slowing down. The ongoing consolidation will likely result in an uptrend (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/matic-price-consolidates-before-jumping-to-190-202202022123) that propels Polygon to revisit crucial levels. MATIC price sets the stage MATIC price has been teetering above the $1.44 support level and will likely retest it soon. A bounce off this barrier could be the key to triggering an uptrend. In some cases, the rally could even begin before the initial pullback. Regardless, investors can expect a minimum 15% ascent from MATIC price that tags the supply zone’s lower limit at $1.75. In a highly bullish scenario, Polygon could pierce this hurdle and make a run for the weekly resistance barrier at $1.95. This move would bring total gains from 15% to 27%, from the current level at $1.53. Investors willing to go long could enter a pilot position at the current level and wait for a retest of the $1.44 barrier. If the latter does not arrive, market participants can book profits following a retest of $1.75 and $1.95. MATIC/USDT 4-hour chart While things seem straightforward for MATIC price, a breakdown of the $1.44 support level could dent their optimism. A four-hour candlestick close below $1.41, however, will create a lower low and invalidate the bullish thesis, making an ideal place to enter a stop-loss. A bearish turn could see MATIC price crashing 13% before retesting the $1.23 weekly support level.
Crypto Airdrop - Explanation - How Does It Work?

Cryptomarket Seems Not To Lose That Much as Bitcoin decreases by 0.7%, ETH by 1.8% and Luna Gains 4.3%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 04.02.2022 08:28
Bitcoin fell 0.7% on Thursday, ending the day around $36,800. Ethereum lost 1.8%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 showed mixed dynamics from a 1.5% decline (Solana and Polkadot) to a 4.3% rise (Terra). Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinGecko, added 0.2% to $1.79 trillion overnight. Bitcoin’s dominance index remained unchanged at 39.2%. Most cryptocurrencies were under pressure from declines in US tech stocks on Thursday. A weak report from Meta (Facebook) was published the day before, and the company’s shares lost more than 26% on the day, with the high-tech Nasdaq down almost 4%. The correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq stock index has recently reached a new high. The first cryptocurrency was also hit by a shutdown of mining farms in Texas, caused by bad weather and a snowstorm. The state leads bitcoin mining in the US, accounting for about half of all BTC hash rates. Bitcoin volatility has fallen to 15-month lows in recent days. With the comparative performance of traditional financial markets, bitcoin has managed to add around 2.9% since the start of the day on Friday, reaching 38,000 and again testing the upper limit of the downward channel. However, the first cryptocurrency will need to break the key $40,000 level to confirm bullish sentiment. Otherwise, the pressure on BTC will continue and may even intensify. The developers of the 14th cryptocurrency, Shiba Inu, have partnered with fast-food restaurant Wellu’s of Naples, Italy. The restaurant will use SHIB as a means of payment and has also fully rebranded its outlet in token style.
Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH targets $3,000

Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH targets $3,000

FXStreet News FXStreet News 04.02.2022 16:06
Ethereum price made a false break below a short-term trend line yesterday.ETH price breaks above $2,695 and is set for a run towards $3,018.This would mean 13% gains for ETH and a more favourable outlook for next week.Ethereum (ETH) price is set to book the best gains it has made for the whole of 2022, as a bullish candle has now formed on the back of a significant support level. With that move, many bears are getting hurt as they probably fell in the bear trap with the false break below the supportive short-term trend line. Expect more upside to come with global markets enjoying the rally in Amazon shares, which is spilling over into cryptocurrencies and lifting sentiment in ETH towards $3,018.ETH bulls are stabbing bears in the back with a trapEthereum price was dangling below a short-term trend line and looked quite heavy after the slippage (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-3-price-prediction-bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-crypto-sentiments-rolls-over-as-meta-shakes-nasdaq-202202031412) from META earnings. But that markets can change their minds overnight is proven yet again, after Amazon’s earnings fueled a booster rally which we are seeing today. This has spilled over into cryptocurrencies and is lifting sentiment in ETH prices with a firm break above $2,695, squeezing out bears in the process, who went short on the false break of the trend line, and it is now just a matter of time before they close out and take their losses.ETH price is thus set for a second rally today as those bears will need to revert to the buy-side volume (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-pushes-higher-eth-targeting-3-500-202202021800) to close and cut their losses. This will add a boost to ETH prices and could see Ethereum bulls hitting the price target at $3,018, taking out the $3,000 level, and setting the stage for next week. With that move, the red descending trend line could be broken, and with that, the downturn since December, finally (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-pushes-higher-eth-targeting-3-500-202202021800) breaking the chances for bears and setting the stage for a possible longer-term uptrend.ETH/USD daily chartNevertheless, there are still some earnings on the docket for today that could surprise to the downside and see those tailwinds (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-3-price-prediction-bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-crypto-markets-to-favor-bears-soon-202202020838) as quickly fade as they came. Expect that with that lack of support, ETH price will collapse back to $2,695 and start to weigh further on the bulls. Should that spiral into equities, pushing them firmly in the red, and impacting safe haven flow – expect a dip back towards $2,600.
COT Forex Speculators reduce their US Dollar bullish bets to 7-week low

COT Forex Speculators reduce their US Dollar bullish bets to 7-week low

Invest Macro Invest Macro 05.02.2022 20:24
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the decline for the US Dollar Index in the currency futures contracts. Dollar Index speculators cut back on their bullish bets this week for the third time in the past four weeks after previously pushing their bullish bets to a 117-week high on January 4th. Since that high-point, bullish bets have fallen by a total of -4,507 contracts and have now dropped the overall standing to a seven-week low. Despite the recent slide, the US Dollar Index bullish bets are still near the top of their range over the past three years with a speculator strength index score of 85.4 percent which is considered extremely bullish (strength index is the current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme). The Dollar Index price has had a volatile couple of weeks with a sharp rise to 97.22 on January 28th and then a sharp drop to 95.23 on February 3rd and closed the week at approximately 95.48. The currencies with positive changes this week were the Japanese yen (7,633 contracts), Swiss franc (557 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,947 contracts), Russian ruble (10,207 contracts), Bitcoin (175 contracts), Australian dollar (3,444 contracts) and the Mexican peso (1,520 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-2,290 contracts), Euro (-1,844 contracts), British pound sterling (-15,842 contracts), Brazil real (-737 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-925 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 56,477 81 34,571 85 -41,884 5 7,313 97 EUR 685,431 78 29,716 44 -57,467 59 27,751 20 GBP 184,007 28 -23,605 57 28,891 47 -5,286 45 JPY 194,435 51 -60,640 30 79,353 76 -18,713 9 CHF 41,054 16 -8,239 56 16,541 49 -8,302 39 CAD 145,082 27 18,264 65 -25,622 39 7,358 44 AUD 196,913 80 -79,829 11 96,098 91 -16,269 13 NZD 58,467 60 -11,698 52 14,019 52 -2,321 25 MXN 141,352 22 730 28 -3,848 71 3,118 56 RUB 46,358 47 14,151 47 -14,451 52 300 43 BRL 76,175 100 -13,353 51 10,467 47 2,886 100 Bitcoin 9,948 51 141 100 -491 0 350 21   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 34,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,861 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.7 3.8 16.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.5 78.0 3.3 – Net Position: 34,571 -41,884 7,313 – Gross Longs: 43,897 2,141 9,203 – Gross Shorts: 9,326 44,025 1,890 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.7 to 1 0.0 to 1 4.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.4 5.0 96.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.9 -2.6 22.9   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,716 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,560 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.2 55.0 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.8 63.4 8.2 – Net Position: 29,716 -57,467 27,751 – Gross Longs: 213,563 376,805 83,675 – Gross Shorts: 183,847 434,272 55,924 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.1 59.5 20.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.2 -11.8 3.2   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -23,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,763 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.1 68.8 13.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.9 53.1 16.4 – Net Position: -23,605 28,891 -5,286 – Gross Longs: 29,597 126,536 24,845 – Gross Shorts: 53,202 97,645 30,131 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.0 46.8 44.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.6 -25.0 16.9   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -60,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,273 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.5 82.5 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.7 41.7 17.8 – Net Position: -60,640 79,353 -18,713 – Gross Longs: 14,510 160,358 15,958 – Gross Shorts: 75,150 81,005 34,671 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.7 75.6 9.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.3 4.1 0.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,796 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 1.7 73.5 24.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.8 33.2 44.8 – Net Position: -8,239 16,541 -8,302 – Gross Longs: 698 30,161 10,103 – Gross Shorts: 8,937 13,620 18,405 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.6 49.4 38.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.7 0.7 -4.6   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 18,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,947 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,317 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.1 39.6 21.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 57.3 16.5 – Net Position: 18,264 -25,622 7,358 – Gross Longs: 52,386 57,524 31,356 – Gross Shorts: 34,122 83,146 23,998 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.4 39.4 44.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 27.3 -22.9 9.8   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -79,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,273 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.6 78.8 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.1 30.0 17.5 – Net Position: -79,829 96,098 -16,269 – Gross Longs: 18,835 155,124 18,128 – Gross Shorts: 98,664 59,026 34,397 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.8 90.6 12.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.5 -1.4 3.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -925 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,773 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 61.0 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.9 37.0 8.7 – Net Position: -11,698 14,019 -2,321 – Gross Longs: 19,205 35,644 2,783 – Gross Shorts: 30,903 21,625 5,104 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.6 52.0 25.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 7.9 4.7   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,520 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -790 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.0 57.2 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.5 59.9 2.3 – Net Position: 730 -3,848 3,118 – Gross Longs: 53,767 80,885 6,378 – Gross Shorts: 53,037 84,733 3,260 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.7 71.2 56.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.4 -4.3 20.0   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,353 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,616 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 47.6 46.3 6.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 65.2 32.6 2.2 – Net Position: -13,353 10,467 2,886 – Gross Longs: 36,293 35,263 4,562 – Gross Shorts: 49,646 24,796 1,676 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.8 47.4 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.1 4.3 42.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,944 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 54.0 41.5 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 72.7 3.7 – Net Position: 14,151 -14,451 300 – Gross Longs: 25,048 19,255 2,024 – Gross Shorts: 10,897 33,706 1,724 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.9 52.4 42.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.1 -10.5 -26.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.3 3.1 12.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 78.8 8.0 8.9 – Net Position: 141 -491 350 – Gross Longs: 7,984 304 1,232 – Gross Shorts: 7,843 795 882 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 20.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.4 -43.4 -11.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Forex Speculators reduce their US Dollar bullish bets to 7-week low - 06.02.2022

COT Forex Speculators reduce their US Dollar bullish bets to 7-week low - 06.02.2022

Invest Macro Invest Macro 05.02.2022 20:24
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the decline for the US Dollar Index in the currency futures contracts. Dollar Index speculators cut back on their bullish bets this week for the third time in the past four weeks after previously pushing their bullish bets to a 117-week high on January 4th. Since that high-point, bullish bets have fallen by a total of -4,507 contracts and have now dropped the overall standing to a seven-week low. Despite the recent slide, the US Dollar Index bullish bets are still near the top of their range over the past three years with a speculator strength index score of 85.4 percent which is considered extremely bullish (strength index is the current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme). The Dollar Index price has had a volatile couple of weeks with a sharp rise to 97.22 on January 28th and then a sharp drop to 95.23 on February 3rd and closed the week at approximately 95.48. The currencies with positive changes this week were the Japanese yen (7,633 contracts), Swiss franc (557 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,947 contracts), Russian ruble (10,207 contracts), Bitcoin (175 contracts), Australian dollar (3,444 contracts) and the Mexican peso (1,520 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-2,290 contracts), Euro (-1,844 contracts), British pound sterling (-15,842 contracts), Brazil real (-737 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-925 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 56,477 81 34,571 85 -41,884 5 7,313 97 EUR 685,431 78 29,716 44 -57,467 59 27,751 20 GBP 184,007 28 -23,605 57 28,891 47 -5,286 45 JPY 194,435 51 -60,640 30 79,353 76 -18,713 9 CHF 41,054 16 -8,239 56 16,541 49 -8,302 39 CAD 145,082 27 18,264 65 -25,622 39 7,358 44 AUD 196,913 80 -79,829 11 96,098 91 -16,269 13 NZD 58,467 60 -11,698 52 14,019 52 -2,321 25 MXN 141,352 22 730 28 -3,848 71 3,118 56 RUB 46,358 47 14,151 47 -14,451 52 300 43 BRL 76,175 100 -13,353 51 10,467 47 2,886 100 Bitcoin 9,948 51 141 100 -491 0 350 21   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 34,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,861 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.7 3.8 16.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.5 78.0 3.3 – Net Position: 34,571 -41,884 7,313 – Gross Longs: 43,897 2,141 9,203 – Gross Shorts: 9,326 44,025 1,890 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.7 to 1 0.0 to 1 4.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.4 5.0 96.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.9 -2.6 22.9   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,716 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,560 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.2 55.0 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.8 63.4 8.2 – Net Position: 29,716 -57,467 27,751 – Gross Longs: 213,563 376,805 83,675 – Gross Shorts: 183,847 434,272 55,924 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.1 59.5 20.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.2 -11.8 3.2   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -23,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,763 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.1 68.8 13.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.9 53.1 16.4 – Net Position: -23,605 28,891 -5,286 – Gross Longs: 29,597 126,536 24,845 – Gross Shorts: 53,202 97,645 30,131 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.0 46.8 44.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.6 -25.0 16.9   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -60,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,273 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.5 82.5 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.7 41.7 17.8 – Net Position: -60,640 79,353 -18,713 – Gross Longs: 14,510 160,358 15,958 – Gross Shorts: 75,150 81,005 34,671 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.7 75.6 9.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.3 4.1 0.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,796 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 1.7 73.5 24.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.8 33.2 44.8 – Net Position: -8,239 16,541 -8,302 – Gross Longs: 698 30,161 10,103 – Gross Shorts: 8,937 13,620 18,405 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.6 49.4 38.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.7 0.7 -4.6   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 18,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,947 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,317 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.1 39.6 21.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 57.3 16.5 – Net Position: 18,264 -25,622 7,358 – Gross Longs: 52,386 57,524 31,356 – Gross Shorts: 34,122 83,146 23,998 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.4 39.4 44.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 27.3 -22.9 9.8   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -79,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,273 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.6 78.8 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.1 30.0 17.5 – Net Position: -79,829 96,098 -16,269 – Gross Longs: 18,835 155,124 18,128 – Gross Shorts: 98,664 59,026 34,397 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.8 90.6 12.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.5 -1.4 3.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -925 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,773 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 61.0 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.9 37.0 8.7 – Net Position: -11,698 14,019 -2,321 – Gross Longs: 19,205 35,644 2,783 – Gross Shorts: 30,903 21,625 5,104 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.6 52.0 25.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 7.9 4.7   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,520 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -790 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.0 57.2 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.5 59.9 2.3 – Net Position: 730 -3,848 3,118 – Gross Longs: 53,767 80,885 6,378 – Gross Shorts: 53,037 84,733 3,260 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.7 71.2 56.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.4 -4.3 20.0   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,353 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,616 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 47.6 46.3 6.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 65.2 32.6 2.2 – Net Position: -13,353 10,467 2,886 – Gross Longs: 36,293 35,263 4,562 – Gross Shorts: 49,646 24,796 1,676 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.8 47.4 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.1 4.3 42.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,944 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 54.0 41.5 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 72.7 3.7 – Net Position: 14,151 -14,451 300 – Gross Longs: 25,048 19,255 2,024 – Gross Shorts: 10,897 33,706 1,724 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.9 52.4 42.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.1 -10.5 -26.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.3 3.1 12.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 78.8 8.0 8.9 – Net Position: 141 -491 350 – Gross Longs: 7,984 304 1,232 – Gross Shorts: 7,843 795 882 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 20.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.4 -43.4 -11.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Bitcoin is gaining momentum

Bitcoin is gaining momentum

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 07.02.2022 08:52
Bitcoin is up 9% over the past week, ending at around $41,700. Ethereum is up 15%. Altcoins also woke up from hibernation and grew stronger than the market: from 5.8% (Binance Coin) to 17.3% (Solana).Over the same period, the total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, grew by 11.2%, up to $1.99 trillion.The primary growth of the crypto market last week came on Friday when bitcoin at the end of the day soared by 10% in a few hours. The increase was not prevented even by strong data on the US labor market, which came out a couple of hours before the jump.It is worth noting that the Nonfarm Payrolls can force the Fed to move faster to tighten monetary policy. Against this background, the yield of 10-year Treasuries jumped above 1.93%, hitting new two-year highs, and this could soon lead to sales in the stock market. If cryptocurrencies manage to resist and continue to grow, this will be a serious trend reversal order. Just like on Friday, when investors decided to buy BTC in order to protect investments from inflation.Since then, Bitcoin has already added 17%, moving into a phase of an active uptrend. Technically, the first cryptocurrency broke the resistance of the descending corridor. Accelerating growth and steady buying throughout the weekend indicate a strong bullish momentum. Cautious investors are now looking at the test of the 50-day moving average. Previously, repeatedly fixing above this line preceded a multi-month uptrend.Potentially, this will also be lost now. Therefore, some players consider this impulse as an important first signal of a recovery in demand for risky assets, despite fears of a rate increase.Meanwhile, billionaire Ray Dalio has warned that a number of governments could outlaw cryptocurrencies. The government of the Russian Federation is considering introducing a tax on miners of at least 15%. According to the authorities, the tax on all participants in the crypto market can bring up to 1 trillion rubles to the treasury. In the meantime, the Fed has presented the Digital Dollar White Paper, but the issue of its future launch has not yet been resolved.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Metaverse Tokens Sink After Holiday Crypto Rally

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: BTC bears to go extinct beyond $53,000

FXStreet News FXStreet News 07.02.2022 16:06
Bitcoin price looks overextended as it grapples with the 50-day SMA and the weekly resistance barrier at $42,816. Ethereum price pierces through the bearish breaker and approaches the 50-day SMA at $3,242. Ripple price approaches the $0.757 to $0.807 supply zone that could cut the uptrend short. Bitcoin price has seen tremendous gains over the past three days as it attempts to overcome a massive hurdle. While altcoins like Ethereum and Ripple have corresponded to this bullishness, investors need to exercise caution with fresh investments as a retracement could be around the corner. Bitcoin price faces a decisive moment Bitcoin price has risen 18% over the past four days and is currently hovering below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the weekly resistance barrier confluence at $42,816. If this uptrend is a bull trap, BTC is likely to see rejection followed by a retracement to the immediate support level at $8,481. A breakdown of the said barrier will knock the big crypto down to $34,752. In an extremely bearish case, Bitcoin price could revisit the $30,000 psychological barrier and collect the liquidity resting below it. BTC/USD 1-day chart If BTC produces a daily candlestick close above the breaker’s upper limit at $44,387, however, it will invalidate the bearish thesis. While this development will alleviate the sell-side pressure, it does not mean that Bitcoin price has flipped bullish. A daily candlestick close above $52,000 will produce a higher high and suggest the possible start of an uptrend. Ethereum price slithers close to bearish thesis invalidation Ethereum price has followed the big crypto and pierced the bearish breaker, ranging from $2,789 to $3,167. Any further bullish momentum will push ETH to climb higher and retest the 50-day SMA at $3,242. Assuming BTC retraces, investors can expect Ethereum price to face rejection at $3,242, leading to a 25% pullback to the weekly support level at $2,324. In a highly bearish case, Ethereum price could revisit the $1,730 weekly support level and collect the sell-side liquidity resting below it. ETH/USD 1-day chart Regardless of the bearish outlook, the Ethereum price can invalidate the short-term bearish outlook if it produces a daily candlestick close above the $3,167 resistance zone. A bullish scenario could be kick-started, however, if buyers push ETH to produce a swing high at $3,413. Ethereum price gains momentum to breakout to $3,300 Ripple price faces a blockade Ripple price broke out of its consolidation and rallied 25% from $0.604 to $0.754. This impressive move is currently retesting the weekly resistance barrier at $0.740, which rests below another hurdle that extends from $0.757 to $0.807. Rejection at this multi-resistance zone seems likely considering the situation in which Bitcoin is in, and investors can expect the Ripple price to retrace 16%, returning to the consolidation zone at $0.628. XRP/USD 1-day chart A daily candlestick close above the supply zone’s upper limit at $0.807 will signal a resurgence of buyers and indicate their willingness to move higher. In this case, Ripple price could set up a higher high by rallying 12% to $0.911.    
SEC Rejects Valkyrie, Kryptoin Spot Bitcoin ETF Applications

Bitcoin Hovered Around Ca. $44k Yesterday, Ether (ETH) Gains 5%, Solana Increases by 4%, Ripple by 18.5%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 08.02.2022 08:31
On Monday, Bitcoin rose 5.5%, ending the day around $44,100. Ethereum added 5%, and other leading altcoins from the top ten also showed growing dynamics: from 4% (Solana) to 18.5% (XRP). The total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 5.5% over the day to $2.10 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index has not changed, remaining at 39.2%. The Bitcoin chart continues to paint a bullish picture. With the price at $45K on Tuesday morning, BTCUSD is trading above the 50-day moving average just above the mid-January pivot area and above the down channel resistance level. At the same time, the RSI on the daily charts has not yet entered the overbought area, leaving room for further growth.  The same can be said about the entire cryptocurrency market, where the fear and greed index has reached a neutral point of 48 and is still far from the greed area. The next target for the bulls looks to be $48K, the December support area in December. Further targets are $49-50K, where the 200-day moving average and significant round level are concentrated. The XRP token soared amid reports of a significant approach to the resolution of Ripple's legal dispute with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).Cryptocurrencies briefly stopped responding to movements in US stock indices, which started the week with a decline. The purchases probably included retail investors, who were driven by the desire not to miss the beginning of the market growth (FOMO). However, their buying potential is unlikely to be enough if stock indicators intensify their decline and large institutional investors come into play, wishing to resume profit-taking. KPMG, one of the world's largest auditors, has added Bitcoin and Ethereum to its Canadian division's corporate reserves. This is the firm's first direct investment in cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, at the end of 2021, Tesla received a loss of $ 101 million from a decrease in the cost of previously purchased bitcoins, which it spent $ 1.5 billion on. Previously, Elon Musk called the decision to acquire BTC as a reserve asset quite risky. 
Crypto Airdrop - Explanation - How Does It Work?

February 8th, 2022, Crypto Chartbook

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 08.02.2022 20:48
Stacking bitcoins winning edges It is not the number of edges that get it low risk. And again, there are no hidden magic formulas. What works well is covering multiple aspects in stacking one’s edges: Market behavior Time of day Oscillators for ranging markets Indicators for trending markets Supply/demand zone identification (VWAP=volume weighted average price, in addition to support and resistance lines) Inter-market relationships Leading/lagging (relative strength within a sector or group) Candlestick pattern Volume Time frame relationships Action-reaction principle News Day of the week Swing leg count MAE (=maximum adverse excursion) Mathematical/statistical edges like standard deviation Your list might look vastly different but should include tools that cover the principal variants of market behavior (ranging, trending, slow/fast price action, liquidity, time, volume, transactions). Investopedia is a good research tool for finding definitions and explanations of the various available technical tools. BTC in US-Dollar, daily chart, how we stack odds in our favor: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 8th, 2022. Our previous chart book release described fundamental reasons for being bullish on bitcoin, which we stack in a similar principled fashion. We pointed out that we were looking for low-risk entry points to build up a long-term position for bitcoin. Such a low-risk opportunity arose on February 3rd, last week. We had the following edges stacked at the time of entry (green arrow): General price strength (directional yellow line channel) Previous day retracement (action-reaction principle) Small range Doji for tight stop and possible reversal indication VWAP (blue histogram to the right of the chart) indicating a supply zone Scheduled ECB news item out of the way Time of week Time of day (we entered near the close of the daily candle) Extended from the mean (blue line, standard deviation) Commodity Channel Index (CCI). A momentum-based oscillator useful in congested sideways channels, gave the prior day to execution indication of a long entry (yellow arrow) We posted our entry in real-time in our free Telegram channel. Within a 24-hour period, we could profit on half of the position size for a gain of 8.73%. We also posted this first profit-taking target in real-time in our free Telegram channel. Our quad exit strategy provides income-producing revenues like this but, even more, eliminates risk. Consequently, this approach supports trading the remaining position with psychological ease for the intended long-term holding period. Hence, even starting out as a a short-term trade, the last 25% of the initial position can become a long-term invest. BTC in US-Dollar, weekly chart, well-positioned: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 8th, 2022. With previous entries at recent lows established in much the same manner, we are now exposed to the market with seven remaining rest positions at zero risk. Such an approach can afford to negate whether this will be the long-term turning point or not. Profits have been made. Should our plan pan out, then the remaining exposed capital will lead to further profits. Otherwise, this remaining position size will stop out at breakeven entry level. The weekly chart shows now a confirmed situation of a weekly bar takeout. For most traders this is an entry signal while we were already well established. We are playing with the market’s money and profits banked. With this time frame alignment more money is expected to join the long side. The chart also illustrates the favorable risk/reward-ratio to the right of the chart.   BTC in US-Dollar, monthly chart, early bird: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of February 8th, 2022. A glance at the monthly chart shows we are positioned very early and aggressively for this time frame. Nevertheless, as soon as prices might reach US$48,000, we will find ourselves here as well time frame aligned with a bar takeout. Green numbers show our entry prices for January with two entries and February with five entries. Should prices move upwards in our favor, we would take again partial profits near the red horizontal trend line slightly below all-time highs. The remaining positions stays in place for a possible breakout to all-time new highs. Too late if you are not positioned yet? No! This continuous flow of adding low-risk entry trades followed by partial profit-taking allows participating at all stages of market swings. Stacking bitcoins winning edges: In short, you want to have a clear instruction sheet on what to do in whatever market condition bitcoin throws at you. With a set of tools broadly covering all these variants and measuring them, you will be able to act without hesitancy. Then you can hope for the best, since you planned for the worst. Risk control is the core of each advanced trading approach! We aim to keep it simple, like a card counter, which supports executing high probability winning trades. At the same time, the crowd is confronted by surprising news or fast-moving markets. They use reactionary, inappropriate execution, which in turn creates losing trades. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 6th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Will Sandbox (SAND) Reach $5 In The Near Future?

Will Sandbox (SAND) Reach $5 In The Near Future?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 08.02.2022 16:08
Sandbox price action has broken above $4.72 but fades in early trading today. SAND price action is at the intersection of a red descending trend line and the historical pivot level. Expect current favourable tailwinds to boost confidence for bulls leading to a break to the upside and new all-time highs. Sandbox (SAND) price action broke above $4.72 yesterday and saw bulls trying to test $5.0. But the intersection of the descending trend line and a pivot level proved to be too heavy and pushed price action back below the $4.72 historical level. Expect bulls to keep supporting as more tailwinds coming from geopolitics support the case for more upside potential towards $6.0. Sandbox price targets $6 for this week Sandbox price looked set to finally end the downtrend since November 25. The intersection of the red descending trend line dictating the downtrend and the historical $4.72 pivotal historic level from November 23, proved too big of a hurdle for price action to close above yesterday. Instead, bulls decided to take profit with price fading as we speak. SAND does not need to one-directionally tank further but will probably see bulls keeping price close to the pivotal $4.72 level. With several favorable tailwinds, such as positive news from talks between Putin and Macron, investors look to be back on the scene and putting some money on the table to invest in risk assets like cryptocurrencies. This will filter through in the demand side volume and will provide the needed impetus to punch through $4.72 again and close above, putting an end to the downtrend and targeting $6.0 this week. SAND/USD daily chart The resistance double whammy at the aforementioned intersection could prove too big of a temptation for profit-taking, and result in the Relative Strength Index dipping further, below 50, and translate into further downside for the altcoin towards $4.28, making it even harder to try for a daily close above $4.72. That could lead to yet more liquidation and see a return to a base level around $3.50.
Decentralized Autonomous Organisation - Another Addition To Our Personal Dictionaries

Did Cryptocurrencies Need A Rest Yesterday? Bitcoin Increased By 0.3%, ETH Lost 1.3%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 09.02.2022 08:27
On Tuesday, Bitcoin showed a growing momentum at the beginning of the day and reached five-week highs above $45,000. After a short-term rise above this level, a corrective decline began in the middle of the day. The benchmark cryptocurrency was losing more than $2,000 despite the rise in stock indices. There was a sharp rebound towards the end of the day and closed the day almost unchanged as a result. Recovery in institutional demand for stocks late in the day on Tuesday helped Bitcoin stay above the 50-day moving average as well. Continued buying on the decline to this level will keep the technical picture bullish as upside momentum develops to $49-50K. A sharp dip lower today or tomorrow will raise the issue of a false break and bring the sellers back into play, heading for $37-38K. It became known that at the end of last week, the Canadian exchange fund Purpose Bitcoin ETF bought 1.75 thousand BTC in two days, which could lead to a sharp increase in prices. In addition, Valkyrie Investments has received approval from the SEC to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on the shares of companies that receive at least 50% of their profits through mining. At the same time, the US authorities confiscated bitcoins stolen from the Bitfinex crypto exchange in 2016 for $3.6 billion and detained those involved in the hack. The Russian Federation government approved the concept of the Ministry of Finance for the regulation of cryptocurrencies: a joint bill should be ready by February 18. Overall, Bitcoin gained 0.3% on Tuesday, ending the day around $44,200. Ethereum was down 1.3%, while the other leading altcoins in the top ten were mixed from a 5.7% decline (Binance Coin) to an increase of 5.4% (XRP). The total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 1.2% over the day to $2.09 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index increased by 0.8% over the day, to 40%.  
Crypto Airdrop - Explanation - How Does It Work?

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Cryptos to retrace before the bull run

FXStreet News FXStreet News 09.02.2022 16:19
Bitcoin price slows down its ascent after flipping the $42,748 hurdle into a foothold. Ethereum price contemplates a retracement after facing the 50-day SMA at $3,208. Ripple price looks ready for consolidation after a 51% ascent over the past four days. Bitcoin price rally is slowing, allowing bulls to take a breather before the next leg-up. While some might argue the short-term outlook looks bearish – due to the flash crash in January, the bigger picture reveals cryptocurrency (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies) markets still have the potential to go higher. A Wells Fargo report published in February reveals that cryptocurrency adoption is growing exponentially and, in many cases, resembles the growth curve of internet adoption. The American financial corporation even goes on to state the crypto sector could soon exit the initial phases of adoption and enter “an inflection point of hyper-adoption.” Wells Fargo Report: Internet usage history vs crypto users Bitcoin price at a decisive moment Bitcoin price rallied 25% in the last four days and set up a swing high at $45,539.(https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-begins-correction-after-45k-rejection-where-can-btc-price-bounce-next-202202081914) The rally rippled out, triggering copycat moves in other altcoins and the cryptocurrency market in general. Yet BTC failed to produce a daily candlestick close above the breaker’s upper limit at $44,387. So, as a result, the bearish outlook is still in play. Investors should be prepared for anything between a minor retracement and a full-blow bear trap. An optimistic scenario will likely see BTC retest the weekly support level at $39,481 before triggering the next leg-up. A more pessimistic scenario, however, would speculate that Bitcoin price could crash to $34,752. A breakdown of this support floor could be the key to triggering a crash to $30,000 or lower. BTC/USD 1-day chart While things look on the fence for Bitcoin price, (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin) a daily candlestick close above $44,387 will invalidate the bearish thesis. A bullish regime, however, will only kick-start if BTC produces a daily candlestick (https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/chart/candlestick-patterns) close above $52,000.   Ethereum price takes a breather Ethereum (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/ethereum) price seems to be undergoing a pullback (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-holds-above-3k-but-network-data-suggests-bulls-may-get-trapped-202202090153) as it faces off with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,208 while still hovering inside a bearish breaker, extending from $2,789 to $3,167. A rejection here could lead to a retracement to $2,812, where buyers have a chance at restarting the uptrend. Assuming the bullish momentum picks up, there is a good chance ETH could slice through the $3,208 and make a run for the $3,413 hurdle. The local top for Ethereum price could be capped around the convergence of the 50-day and 100-day SMAs at roughly $3,600. ETH/USD 1-day chart On the other hand, if Ethereum price fails to stay above $2,812, it will indicate that buyers are taking a backseat. This development will invalidate the bullish scenario and trigger a crash to the weekly support level at $2,324. Ethereum price could liquidate bulls if ETH falls below $3,000 Ripple price to reestablish directional bias Ripple price broke out of its ten-day consolidation (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/xrp-price-could-easily-return-to-1-under-one-condition-202202081437) and rallied 51% in just four days. This run-up sliced through the $0.740 and $0.817 hurdles, flipping them into support levels. While this climb was impressive, XRP price is likely to retrace as investors begin to book profits. The resulting selling pressure could push Ripple price down to the $0.740 support level where buyers can band together for a comeback. In some cases, the U-turn might not arrive until a retest of the $0.595 to $0.632 demand zone. Regardless, investors can expect XRP price to run up to $1 and collect the liquidity resting above it. XRP/USD 1-day chart On the contrary, if the Ripple price fails to stay above the $0.595 to $0.632 demand zone, it will reveal the lack of bullish momentum and hint that a further descent is likely. In this case, XRP price will sweep below the $0.518 support level to collect the sell-side liquidity resting beneath. XRP price could easily return to $1 under one condition
Bitcoin (BTC), S&P 500, Nasdaq Increased. Ether Gained 3.8%, Terra (LUNA) (+0.2%) And XRP (+5.2%) Went Up

Bitcoin (BTC), S&P 500, Nasdaq Increased. Ether Gained 3.8%, Terra (LUNA) (+0.2%) And XRP (+5.2%) Went Up

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 10.02.2022 08:30
On Wednesday, the cryptocurrency market decided to push and grow amid the rise of US stock indices. The S&P 500 gained 1.5%, while the high-tech Nasdaq gained 2.1%. All this helped Bitcoin shrug off the profit-taking sentiment at the start of the day and close in a slight plus. On the intraday chart, you can see purchases at the close of the American session, which clearly demonstrate the interest of the institutionalists in this region. The benchmark cryptocurrency continues to be in demand after strengthening above the 50-day moving average, which confirms the breaking of the downtrend of the previous three months. The RSI indicator on the daily charts is now at 61, still far from the overbought zone, confirming that the market is still far from overheating.   For the third week in a row, institutional participants have been investing in crypto funds, according to CoinShare. Why did they start doing this before the January meeting of the Fed, when no one believed in the BTC reversal. Crypto-whales also bought bitcoin on the fall. According to Santiment, they have purchased 220,000 BTC in the last seven weeks. On Thursday, US inflation data will be released, which will shed light on how quickly the Fed will raise rates. If inflation accelerates, all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, may suffer significantly. Overall, Bitcoin added 0.5% on Wednesday, ending the day around $44,500. Ethereum rose 3.8%, other leading altcoins from the top ten also showed growing dynamics from 0.2% (Terra) to 5.2% ( XRP). The total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 2.2% over the day, to $2.14 trillion. Altcoins showed outpacing growth, which led to a decrease in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.4%, to 39.6%.
Bitcoin Bond! Is The "Out Of The Park" Play Coming?

Bitcoin Bond! Is The "Out Of The Park" Play Coming?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 10.02.2022 15:44
El Salvador plans to issue its first Bitcoin bond between March 15 and March 20, 2022. The corporate adoption of Bitcoin went parabolic since the addition of BTC to MicroStrategy’s balance sheet. Amidst rising adoption from institutions, the Salvadoran Finance minister expects the offering to be oversubscribed by an additional $500 million. Analysts at FSInsight predict Bitcoin price could hit $222,000 before the end of 2022. El Salvador has announced the launch of its Bitcoin bond next month. Salvadorans are riding the wave of institutional Bitcoin adoption, fueling a bullish outlook among investors. Bitcoin price rally fueled by El Salvador’s bond issuance and institutional investment El Salvador plans on issuing its first Bitcoin bond in March 2022. The Salvadoran Finance Minister, Alejandro Zelaya told a local news show that the government plans to issue the Bitcoin bond between March 15 and March 20. Zelaya was quoted as saying: If we really want to build this country, we have to invest in it like this. The Salvadoran Bitcoin Bond will pay investors 6.5% per annum. $500 million raised from the bond issuance will be used for Bitcoin mining and developing renewable energy from volcanoes, another $500 million for buying more Bitcoin. El Salvador’s government plans to issue $1 billion for the first bond and expects it to be oversubscribed by an additional $500 million. The minimum purchase is $100, and investors can directly buy without involving a broker. The Bitcoin bond would be issued on Blockstream’s Liquid Network sidechain. Salvador’s move to launch a Bitcoin bond is timed in accordance with the rising corporate adoption of the asset. Firms are keen on adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet; recent Wells Fargo and JP Morgan reports have affirmed a bullish outlook on BTC price. Analysts at FSInsights recently evaluated the Bitcoin price trend and set a target of $222,000 for the end of 2022. FXStreet analysts believe that Bitcoin price could stumble on track to $50,000.
Considering Portfolios In Times Of, Among Others, Inflation...

The Indicators Hit Higher Levels Than Expected In The US

FXStreet News FXStreet News 10.02.2022 15:44
US inflation have exceeded expectations on all measures. Alongside a jump in jobs, America's economy is on fire and the Fed is set to act. The dollar has further room to rise, at least until Fed officials open their mouths. A 6% handle on annual price rises – another milestone has been reached, this time on core inflation. Data for the first month of 2022 is hot out of the oven – and it is steaming hot. While prices of used cars and shelter seemed to have slowed down, there are few silver linings to find. On a monthly basis, both headline and Core CPI is up 0.6%, while overall annual price rises is at 7.5%, above expectations – and even implying an 8% handle next month. It is essential to note that this is no longer limited to energy or supply-chain issues, but rather broad price rises. It is accompanied by a job market that is on fire, as jobless claims for the week ending On February 4 show – a drop from 238,000 to 223,000. That comes on top of January's jobs report. Only six days ago, the Nonfarm Payrolls report came out with an increase of 467,000 positions, accompanied by upward revisions. Wages also jumped according to that NFP, adding to price pressures. Both figures are critical to the Federal Reserve, which has a dual mandate of full employment and price stability. The data more than cement a March rate hike and perhaps at a scale of 0.50% instead of 0.25%, which is the standard measure. Moreover, the Fed could raise interest rates four times by July – contrary to its projections of hiking only three times throughout the whole of 2022. That means more pressure on the dollar. The greenback has benefited from a knee-jerk reaction to the figures, but it has even more room to rise as analysts pore over the data. What could halt the greenback? Only Fed officials can cool things down, by playing down the option of raising rates by 50bp in March. That is what happened last week when hawks such as Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and others calmed markets. On a relative basis, some currencies could do better than others, if central bankers talk about action to mitigate inflation. The European Central Bank's hawkish twist helped the euro recover against the dollar. After these figures, ECB hawks face an uphill battle. Overall, King Dollar reigns supreme.
We Will Probably Review All Of Inflation Indicators Around The World This Weekend

We Will Probably Review All Of Inflation Indicators Around The World This Weekend

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 11.02.2022 13:43
February 11, 2022  $USD, Canada, Currency Movement, ECB, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Mexico, RBA, UK Overview: The higher-than-expected US CPI coupled with strong comments from the Federal Reserve's leading hawk saw a surge in interest rates, knocking stocks and lifting the dollar.  Japanese markets were closed today for a national holiday, but nearly all the other equity markets in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell to pare this week's gains.   Europe's Stoxx 600's 0.8% loss is shaving this week's gain to about 1.35%. US futures are modestly lower.  Australian and New Zealand benchmark yields rose 10 bp and 8 bp respectively to play catch-up.  The ECB's Lagarde and Lane argued against "hasty" action, helping to take some pressure off European bonds.  However, the widening of the core-periphery spreads warns that it may be temporary.  The US 10-year yield is a little softer, hovering around 2%. The two-year soared by 21 bp and is firm today slightly below 1.60%.  The US dollar is trading higher against most currencies.  The Australian dollar is the weakest of the majors, off about 0.5%, as the central bank governor continues to push against market expectations for the beginning of the tightening cycle.  On the week, however, the Aussie, along with the New Zealand and Canadian dollars are holding on to modest gains. The South African rand and Mexican peso are resisting the pressure that is weighing on emerging market currencies.  This week five of the eight strongest emerging market currencies are in Latam. JP Morgan's Emerging Market Currency Index is posting a gain of around 0.8% this week, its fifth gain in the past eight weeks.  As widely expected, the central bank of Russia delivered a 100 bp hike (bringing the key rate to 9.5%).  Gold is recovering from a test on $1820 and is up about 1% on the week.  Crude oil is firm for a third session, but not enough to prevent March WTI from posting its first weekly loss in nearly two months.  US natural gas prices are flat a little below $4 and is holding on to its biggest weekly losses since mid-December.  European natgas is consolidating the week's 10.6% decline after falling nearly 12% the previous week.  Iron ore fell 2% today and is up about 5% on the week. Copper is off around 2.5% to leave the red metal up 1.3% for the week after a 4.1% rise last week.    Asia Pacific Governor Lowe of the Reserve Bank of Australia continues to resist market pressure that sees an early start to the tightening cycle.  He argued that it is too early to conclude that inflation is sustainably in the 2%-3% target.  Without formally accepting the average inflation target like the Federal Reserve did, Lowe argued that after a sustained undershoot, he is willing to tolerate the near-term overshoot.  The risk, he says, of hiking too early would deal a blow to the labor market.  On February 17, Australia reports January employment figures and economists look for a flattish report. Next week, Japan reports Q4 GDP and the January CPI figures.  The world's third-largest economy likely bounced back strongly after the Q3 Covid-induced contraction.  However, new quasi-emergency measures that went into effect last month risks another contraction in Q1.  The GDP deflator is expected to have fallen by about 1.3%, the third consecutive quarter of a more than 1% deflation.  Similarly, the CPI report should show less price pressures, and more deflation when fresh food and energy prices are excluded.  China reports January CPI and PPI.  Both are expected to have softened.   Yesterday, the dollar tested last month's multiyear high against the Japanese yen near JPY116.35.  It backed off to find support near JPY115.75, where a $750 option expires today.  The greenback met resistance in Asia, where Tokyo markets were closed, around JPY116.20.   The Australian dollar reversed lower after approaching $0.7250 yesterday and the retreat has continued today.  The Aussie tested $0.7100 today, and support below there is seen around $0.7075. The greenback continues to trade quietly against the Chinese yuan.  It is a little firmer but below CNY6.36 after reaching CNY6.3660 earlier.  It is virtually flat on the week.  The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.3681, slightly above the market projection (Bloomberg survey) for CNY6.3674.  Europe ECB President Lagarde and Chief Economist Lane pushed back against calls for more imminent action to combat price pressures.  Some press reports have been playing up the "loss of confidence" in the ECB's forecasts.  Leave aside that the EC's updated forecasts also see inflation falling back below 2%.  The issue is who takes their case to the press?  Those that are coming on top of the internal debate have no need.  The hawks that go to the media lap it up as if it were gospel instead of part of the internecine struggle.  That said, Lagarde and Lane have not been particularly persuasive and the swaps market now prices in about 65 bp in tightening over the next 12 months.  The UK economy grew by 1.0% quarter-over-quarter in Q4, the same as Q3 after the revision (from 1.1%).  Consumption slowed from 2.9% in Q3 to 1.2% in Q4.  Government spending, which was flat in Q3, increased by 1.9% in Q4.  Fixed capital formation rose by 2.2%, well above expectations after falling by a revised 0.2% (from -0.9%) in Q3.  The UK also reported that the expected contraction in December was less than feared, hobbled by the Omicron variant.  Output fell by 0.2% not the 0.5% of the median forecast in the Bloomberg survey, helped by stronger than expected industrial production, construction, and a smaller than expected decline in services.  A week ago, the market had about a 45% chance of a 50 bp hike in March and now it is about 80%. The euro stopped 5/100 of a cent below the $1.15 level yesterday, where about 3.25 bln euros in options expire today.  The single currency made a new low for the week near $1.1370. Nearby support is seen closer to $1.1350, and a break could spur a test on the $1.13 area early next week.   The US 2-year premium is widening for the sixth consecutive session, and at 190 bp, it is the most since February 2020.  At the end of 2019, it was near 225 bp.  Sterling made a new high for the month yesterday near $1.3645 before surrendering the gains in the face of the broader greenback recovery.  It found support today near the lower end of its recent range around $1.35.  Nearby resistance is seen in front of $1.3580.  Sterling settled at $1.3530 last week.   America The higher-than-expected US CPI panicked market participants and drove the 2-year yield up a whopping 21 bp and the implied yield of December up 26.5 bp.  One inflation report that was 0.2% above the median in the Bloomberg poll is worth another 25 bp rate hike this year?  The Fed's leading hawk, St. Louis Fed's Bullard talked about a 100 bp increase in rates here in H1, which implies a 50 bp move.  However, it seemed like professional courtesy more than conviction deterred him from calling for a 50 bp at next month's meeting.  Two other Fed officials that spoke, Barkin and Daly, seemed more measured in their remarks.  That said, there is a perception that if the market has 50 bp priced in (~86%), it makes it more likely in and of itself for the Fed to deliver it.  It offers the Fed a free option, as it were.  Yet, it makes it more difficult for the Fed to get ahead of expectations.  At the same time, it may reinforce perceptions that the Fed is often a slave to the markets.  The vaccine-mandate protest continues to roil Canada.  The disruption is estimated to be costing Canada around CAD350 mln a day.  There is some fear that a similar protest may be coming to Washington DC in time for President Biden's State of the Union speech on March 1, even though the judiciary has circumscribed the vaccine mandate on the federal level.  However, the vaccine mandate may spur demonstrations in France as early as this weekend.   The new governor of Banxico led the central bank in delivering the second 50 bp hike in a row.  It was widely expected, especially after the firm CPI reading above 7%.  The swaps market has another 100 bp discounted over the next three months and 260 bp over the next 12 months.  The next meeting is March 24th.  Peru also delivered a 50 bp hike yesterday.  It has raised its target rate by 50 bp for six consecutive meetings now and it stands at 3.5%.  Lima's CPI rose by almost 5.7% last month after 6.4% in December.   The US dollar recorded an outside up day against the Canadian dollar by trading on both sides of Wednesday's range and closing above Wednesday’s high.  The greenback briefly took out the shelf in the CAD1.2650-CAD1.2660 area where about $4.9 bln in options expire today, before rallying to about CAD1.2730.  Follow-through buying lifted the US dollar to almost CAD1.2755 earlier today.  The CAD1.28 area has held back the greenback a couple of times in the past few weeks.  The risk off move yesterday saw the US dollar bounce from the 200-day moving average against the Mexican peso (~MXN20.35) to almost MXN20.59.  Some follow-through buying lifted it to around MXN20.64 today before backing off and it looks set to fall back below MXN20.50 today.  Initial support is seen around MXN20.44.     Disclaimer
Bank of America Doesn't Approve Bitcoin, Which By The Way Decreased By 1.3% Yesterday

Bank of America Doesn't Approve Bitcoin, Which By The Way Decreased By 1.3% Yesterday

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 11.02.2022 08:53
Cryptocurrencies were under the pressure of strong data on inflation in the United States on Thursday, which has updated 40-year highs. Such values can force the Fed to raise interest rates faster, which is negative for all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin showed high volatility during trading, updating early January highs above $45,800 under the influence of a weakening dollar. However, towards the end of the day, the first cryptocurrency began to decline along with stock indices: the S&P500 lost 1.8%, the high-tech Nasdaq fell 2.1%. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed for the second day is exactly in the middle of the scale, at around 50 (neutral). However, now the stock markets are having an increased impact on the dynamics of Bitcoin and Ethereum, in which the prospects for monetary policy are being reassessed. The corresponding index is now in the fear territory, near the 37 mark. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is being bought back on dips towards the 50-day average, which keeps the picture bullish. However, in the event of a prolonged sale of shares, the first cryptocurrency will not hold and risks pulling the entire market with it. Fitch has downgraded El Salvador due to its acceptance of bitcoin as legal tender. In March, the country will issue the first $1 billion bitcoin bonds. There is interesting news from America as well. The largest investment company BlackRock is going to launch a cryptocurrency trading service. Bank Of America refuses to recognize Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, pointing to the strengthening of the correlation between BTC and the S&P500 stock index. And at JPMorgan, they currently consider the “fair” quote for bitcoin to be $38,000. In Russia, the government has completed the drafting of a bill on the circulation of digital currencies. The Ministry of Finance proposed establishing a transitional period for individuals before introducing a tax on income from crypto assets. Overall, Bitcoin lost 1.3% on Thursday, ending the day around $44,100. Ethereum fell 4.3%, while other top ten altcoins declined from 0.5% (Avalanche) to 6.2% (Solana and Polkadot). The total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 2.8% over the day, to $2.08 trillion. Altcoins showed a leading decline, which led to an increase in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.5%, to 40.1%
COT Currency Speculator’s bullish bets for Brazilian Real jump by most on record - 12.02.2022

COT Currency Speculator’s bullish bets for Brazilian Real jump by most on record - 12.02.2022

Invest Macro Invest Macro 12.02.2022 18:28
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the strong gains in bullish bets for the Brazilian Real currency futures contracts. Real speculators boosted their bullish bets this week by the largest one-week amount (+33,599 contracts) on record, according the CFTC data going back to 1995. This surge in bullish sentiment pushed the overall net speculator standing for Brazilian Reals into bullish territory for the first time in nineteen weeks, dating back to September 28th. There has been a surge of trading going on in this market over the past couple of weeks with open interest increasing dramatically. Open interest (OI) for the Brazilian currency jumped on February 2nd to a total of 76,175 contracts which marked the highest OI level of the previous 381 weeks, dating all the way back to September of 2014. The previous ten weeks had seen an average open interest of less than half (ten week average of 33,492 contracts) of the February 2nd total. This week’s open interest fell a bit to 64,283 contracts but still was the second highest open interest of the past thirty-six weeks and with all this activity going on, this is a currency to watch. Joining the Brazil real (33,599 contracts) with positive changes this week were the Euro (9,126 contracts), Japanese yen (1,492 contracts), British pound sterling (15,060 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,332 contracts), Mexican peso (514 contracts) and the Russian ruble (1,292 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-806 contracts), Australian dollar (-5,912 contracts), Canadian dollar (-3,378 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,160 contracts) and the Bitcoin futures (-460 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-08-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 53,603 75 33,765 84 -40,826 7 7,061 94 EUR 700,098 83 38,842 47 -73,252 55 34,410 31 GBP 197,948 37 -8,545 68 9,323 35 -778 54 JPY 196,478 53 -59,148 31 75,957 74 -16,809 13 CHF 41,481 16 -9,399 54 16,918 50 -7,519 41 CAD 145,208 27 14,886 62 -16,958 45 2,072 34 AUD 196,403 80 -85,741 5 98,357 92 -12,616 22 NZD 54,877 53 -10,366 54 12,733 50 -2,367 25 MXN 134,257 19 1,244 28 -4,073 71 2,829 55 RUB 39,233 35 15,443 50 -16,839 47 1,396 72 BRL 64,283 81 20,246 96 -22,432 4 2,186 92 Bitcoin 9,886 50 -319 90 -189 0 508 24   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 33,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,571 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 75.3 5.9 16.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.3 82.0 3.3 – Net Position: 33,765 -40,826 7,061 – Gross Longs: 40,370 3,150 8,841 – Gross Shorts: 6,605 43,976 1,780 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 5.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.0 6.8 93.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.2 2.7 15.2   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,716 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.3 54.6 12.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.7 65.1 7.6 – Net Position: 38,842 -73,252 34,410 – Gross Longs: 218,973 382,426 87,725 – Gross Shorts: 180,131 455,678 53,315 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.9 55.0 31.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.0 -15.5 15.3   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,545 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 15,060 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,605 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.6 60.7 13.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.9 56.0 14.0 – Net Position: -8,545 9,323 -778 – Gross Longs: 44,709 120,220 26,951 – Gross Shorts: 53,254 110,897 27,729 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.8 35.2 54.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 30.4 -30.0 17.8   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -59,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,492 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,640 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.0 81.2 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.1 42.6 17.5 – Net Position: -59,148 75,957 -16,809 – Gross Longs: 15,692 159,601 17,609 – Gross Shorts: 74,840 83,644 34,418 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.7 73.9 13.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.8 1.8 5.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,399 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,239 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.0 72.8 23.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.6 32.1 41.8 – Net Position: -9,399 16,918 -7,519 – Gross Longs: 1,234 30,215 9,838 – Gross Shorts: 10,633 13,297 17,357 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.5 49.9 41.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.3 1.9 -8.8   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 14,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,264 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.7 40.2 18.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.5 51.9 17.5 – Net Position: 14,886 -16,958 2,072 – Gross Longs: 54,762 58,404 27,480 – Gross Shorts: 39,876 75,362 25,408 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.1 45.4 33.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.4 -16.7 -2.2   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -85,741 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,912 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,829 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.8 79.0 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.5 28.9 16.3 – Net Position: -85,741 98,357 -12,616 – Gross Longs: 17,323 155,203 19,485 – Gross Shorts: 103,064 56,846 32,101 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.3 92.3 21.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.7 -0.8 12.5   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -10,366 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,332 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,698 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.3 61.2 5.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.2 38.0 10.0 – Net Position: -10,366 12,733 -2,367 – Gross Longs: 17,168 33,591 3,097 – Gross Shorts: 27,534 20,858 5,464 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.9 50.0 24.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.3 4.1 -7.9   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 514 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 730 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.6 61.3 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.7 64.3 2.4 – Net Position: 1,244 -4,073 2,829 – Gross Longs: 45,097 82,287 6,067 – Gross Shorts: 43,853 86,360 3,238 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.9 71.1 55.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.4 -5.2 9.1   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 20,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 33,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,353 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.5 17.6 5.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.0 52.5 2.3 – Net Position: 20,246 -22,432 2,186 – Gross Longs: 49,170 11,336 3,666 – Gross Shorts: 28,924 33,768 1,480 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.7 3.5 91.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 34.2 -37.2 28.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 15,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,151 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.1 43.4 6.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.7 86.3 3.0 – Net Position: 15,443 -16,839 1,396 – Gross Longs: 19,657 17,021 2,555 – Gross Shorts: 4,214 33,860 1,159 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.9 46.9 72.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.5 -15.9 -0.7   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -319 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -460 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 141 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.4 3.8 14.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 81.6 5.7 9.8 – Net Position: -319 -189 508 – Gross Longs: 7,751 376 1,474 – Gross Shorts: 8,070 565 966 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.9 24.8 24.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.9 2.9 -5.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Price Of Gold Update By GoldViewFX

Price Of Gold Hitting $2.000? Metal Seems To Feel Good

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 14.02.2022 07:34
Given last week’s strong price action and gold’s intraday resilience, it is now very likely that gold indeed is breaking out of the multi-month consolidation triangle. Actually, this large and symmetrical triangle had been building for more than a year, at least. However, the correction in gold began on August 7th, 2020. Now it looks like the breakout is in process. Typically, traders tend to aggressively buy into such a breakout. And given Friday’s sharp spike higher, it actually looks exactly like this. Hence, expect more volatility and a sharp move higher as the direction of gold’s next move has become more obvious. Please note, that it is rather challenging to draw and determine the correct triangle, because gold has been in a tricky sideways market for such a long time and many trend-lines have been invalidated during this messy period. But at the latest, a weekly close above US$1,875 should confirm the breakout. This should unleash enough energy to push gold prices quickly towards US$1,900 and even US$1,950 within a few weeks. Obviously, that would fit very well with gold’s seasonal cycle, which is bullish until the end of February at least, but often saw gold rallying into mid of march, too. Consumer sentiment at 10-year low but Fed wants to hike and taper From a fundamental perspective, it leaves us speechless how the Fed can go on a hiking rampage while consumer sentiment is at a 10-year low. While the confidence in governments worldwide is collapsing and inflation is spiking higher, raising rates will have zero impact upon supply shortages. Instead, it will make these shortages only worse and bankrupt more companies in the supply chain. Also, it will bankrupt emerging markets, as the strong dollar has already been putting so much pressure on dollar indebted nations and creditors. It’s all a big mess, and we believe there is no way out. That’s why the warmongering industrial and military complex of the US is desperately trying to push Russia into an attack on Ukraine! Without showing any proof, the Biden administration and their mouthpiece “the mainstream media” have been pushing people’s focus on fears that Russia will soon invade Ukraine. Another noteworthy fundamental observation: Gold’s correction began in earnest when Pfizer & Biontech announced their vaccine on November 9th, 2020. In a first reaction, gold immediately sold off $150 on that same day. Many more similar large red daily candles followed over the last 16 months, destroying the confidence of the gold bugs and shifting millions of dollars to the short sellers. Now that more and more very serious questions about the vaccines are debated in the news, it would make sense for gold to run back to US$1,950. This was the level where gold was trading back on November 9th, 2020. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 13th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 13th, 2022. On the weekly chart, gold has been slowly but surely progressing into the apex of the triangle over the last few months. It now looks like Gold is breaking out with vengeance. Theoretically, the resistance zone between US$1,850 and US$1,875 could still stop the bullish train. The weekly Bollinger Bands (US$1,864) sits right in this zone and should at least challenge the bulls for some days. However, the weekly stochastic has just given a new buy signal. On top, the oscillator has been making higher lows since March 2021. A measured move out of this triangle could take gold to around US$1,950 to US$1.975 until spring. The monthly Bollinger Band ($1,975) could become the logical target! Overall, the weekly chart is becoming more and more bullish, suggesting that gold can at least move around US$80 to US$100 higher. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 13th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 13th, 2022. On the daily chart, gold has been struggling with the upper triangle resistance in November and January. Each time, the bears managed to push back. Now it looks like the bulls are finally successful. The fierce and sharp pullback two and half weeks ago had created a nice oversold setup which became the launching pad for the ongoing attack. Since then, the slow stochastic has been nicely turning around. This buy signal is still active and has not yet reached the overbought zone. Thanks to Friday’s big green candle, the bulls are now bending the upper Bollinger Band (US$1,858) to the upside. To conclude, the daily chart is bullish, and gold should have more upside. If the bulls continue their attack, we could see prices directly exploding for four to seven days. More likely would be a consolidation. Only with prices below US$1,835 the breakout would have failed. In that rather unlikely case, the picture could quickly turn ugly again. Conclusion: Gold is breaking out! In mid of December, gold made an important low around US$1,752. Back then, most gold bugs had enough and did throw in the towel after a very difficult and messy 16-month correction. Gold, silver and the mining stock had become the most hated asset. But actually, all that gold might have been doing was building an epic base and a launch pad to start the next leg higher within its bull market. Overall, we expect that Gold is breaking out after a short consolidation! The successful breakout above resistance between US$1,850 and US$1,875 should happen within the next few days or weeks. This should then lead to higher prices and gold will likely run towards US$1,950, at least. However, we are not sure yet whether this will also bring an attack towards the round number resistance at US$2,000. Given the fact, that gold usually starts to struggle somewhere in spring, the ongoing rally could still be just a counter-trend move within the larger ongoing consolidation/correction. Hence, we are short-term very bullish, mid-term neutral and long-term very bullish for gold. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Florian Grummes|February 13th, 2022|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, gold fundamentals, precious metals, Reyna Gold, US-Dollar About the Author: Florian Grummes Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
Crypto Market News: Hungary And Russia Take Crypto Into Consideration, ETH Decreased By 5.1%

Crypto Market News: Hungary And Russia Take Crypto Into Consideration, ETH Decreased By 5.1%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 14.02.2022 08:48
Bitcoin strengthened in the first half of the week and the middle, having managed to test the highs of early January above $45,800. The situation changed on Thursday after the release of US inflation data, which updated the maximum levels for 40 years, and US stock indices fell. This had a negative impact, among other things, on cryptocurrencies, which showed a significant correlation with other risky assets. Late last week, the Fed announced an unscheduled meeting to be held today, February 14th. As a result of the meeting, the regulator may well raise rates without waiting til March. Moreover, even a double increase is possible, by 0.50%. Tightening monetary policy can hit all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. On February 12th, the bitcoin network hashrate updated all-time highs above 248 EH/s. The indicator indicates the strengthening of the position of the blockchain and the development of its infrastructure. Kathy Wood, head of investment company ARK Invest, actively sold shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust backed by bitcoin throughout February. Note that these securities were purchased in July last year, at the time of the BTC reversal upwards. The Central Bank of Hungary has now called on EU countries to ban cryptocurrency trading and mining. The Bank of Russia announced its desire to reduce the involvement of citizens in the crypto market. For example, the Ministry of Finance proposed limiting the list of cryptocurrencies traded in Russia. In general, Bitcoin rose by 1.6% over the past week, ending it at around $42,200. Ethereum lost 5.1%, other leading altcoins from the top ten also mostly sank: from 4.3% (Binance Coin) to 19% (Solana) for a week. The exception was the XRP token, which showed a 20% increase. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, decreased by 1.5% over the week to $1.96 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose by 1% to 40.7% due to the weakening of altcoins.
Decentralized Autonomous Organisation - Another Addition To Our Personal Dictionaries

BTC Wants To Let Us Forget About January's Lows. On Monday: BTC Decreased By 0.2%, ETH And LUNA Gained

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.02.2022 09:28
The first cryptocurrency returned to growth on Tuesday morning, adding 3.3% and rising to 43,500. Technically, BTCUSD held above the 50-day moving average and received support from buyers after another touch of this level. At the same time, however, this average is directed downwards, emphasizing the general downward trend. Cryptocurrencies seem to be once again trying on the role of a safe-haven asset, becoming a little more like gold and a little less like stocks. Although US stock indices were under pressure on Monday, they decided to stop the sharp decline at the end of last week. However, the high-tech Nasdaq ended the day unchanged. European stock indicators showed a noticeable drop under the influence of tensions around Ukraine. On the same background, gold shot up 3% to highs since June last year. It should be understood that in the event of a massive sale of shares, only short-term government bonds will be the protective asset of last resort. Institutions invested $75 million in crypto funds last week, according to CoinShares. Over the past four weeks, net inflows to crypto funds amounted to $209 million. The head of Uber said that the company would definitely start accepting cryptocurrencies in the future. A British crypto investor has announced the creation of a city for crypto investors in the Pacific and expects thousands of supporters from around the world to join soon. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation proposed to limit the investments of unqualified Russian investors in cryptocurrencies to 50 thousand rubles. The agency estimates tax revenues to the budget from the legalization of the cryptocurrency market at 10-15 billion rubles, and the main amount of payments will fall on the miners. Overall, Bitcoin was down 0.2% on Monday, ending the day at around $42,200. Ethereum added 0.1%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten showed mixed dynamics: from a decrease of 1.6% (XRP) to a rise of 2 .2% (Terra). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, grew by 0.5% per day, to $1.97 trillion. The BTC dominance index did not change during the day, remaining at the level of 40.7%. The Fear and Greed Index is up 2 points to 46 and is in a state of fear.
Russian Rouble "Strengthened By Diplomacy"? RTS Index Increases

Russian Rouble "Strengthened By Diplomacy"? RTS Index Increases

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.02.2022 13:00
The Russian market is trying to grow this morning. The RTS index has already added 5.5%, while the ruble has taken away 1.7% from the dollar and 1.3% from the euro. The growth impulse was formed yesterday when Foreign Minister Lavrov called for a search for diplomatic ways out of the situation. Later, comments by Zelensky, who in an address to the nation insisted on a diplomatic solution, and a speech by Shoigu, who ordered part of the troops to return to locations of permanent de-escalation, added positives. So far, these are only signals of readiness to discuss and look for ways to resolve it, but the incident is far from over: there are too many “buts” at all levels. If we consider the movement of currencies and stocks from the position that the market takes everything into account, we cannot fail to note positive signals. The EURRUB pair returned to the position from which it rushed upwards on Friday. Fixation below 85 will send a signal of market confidence in a trend reversal. In this case, a fast road to area 84 will be open for the pair. If politicians really plan to move forward on issues that have hung over the ruble like a sword of Damocles for the last 8 years, it will be possible to talk about the potential for the euro to roll back to the level of 80 rubles before the end of the first quarter. For the dollar, the significant point is the mark of 73.50. Fixing below this level will mark the renewal of the lows of the exchange rate for the entire last stage of tension and will also return the Russian currency to the long-term growth trend. In this case, a move to the 70 area over the next six weeks could be a viable prospect. However, even these relatively short-term forecasts look too shaky since the situation can turn 180 degrees at any second.
Sandbox price set for breakout as bulls target some low-hanging fruit

Sandbox price set for breakout as bulls target some low-hanging fruit

FXStreet News FXStreet News 15.02.2022 16:09
Since December, sandbox has been trying to break the downtrend. As bulls attempt to break through, expect some profits to be booked as some targets lie nearby. Once above $4.72, expect $5.00 and $6.00 to be the following targets in the relief rally. Sandbox (SAND) price action is surfing on a wave of relief this morning as tensions between Russia, and the West start to ease on positive news. With that, investors have been falling over each other to get back into cryptocurrencies, and Sandbox price is set to break the longer-term red descending trendline, and downtrend since December last year. Some low-hanging fruit will be targeted in the breakthrough and could provide enough incentive for bulls to book partial profits and go for the ultimate goal of $6.00, holding 47% of gains. Sandbox bulls are in for 47% gains in the relief rally Sandbox price action is again hammering on the red descending trend line that originates from December last year and has been dictating the downtrend ever since. The renewed push comes from tailwinds that emerged overnight on some positive news around de-escalation in the situation between Russia and Ukraine. As the scene is set for a solid relief rally, expect to see some excellent (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/sandbox-tests-support-at-425-before-sand-test-prior-all-time-highs-202202112001) returns, beginning with some nice profits nearby as a good start. SAND bulls will have their eyes on $4.72 with the 55-day Simple Moving Average and an overall (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-dogecoin-sandbox-and-cardano-european-wrap-10-february-video-202202101133) pivotal level falling in line around the same area. Although this level is not far from the red descending trendline, it will still return around 16% of gains intraday. Bulls will have a good incentive to book profits midway but stay in the trade with more considerable profits gained when the price rises towards $5.00 and $6.00 – the next targets in this week’s relief rally. The trade has an excellent risk-return ratio and is the most viable (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/sandbox-price-bound-for-another-30-gains-as-sand-finds-support-202202101005) as we advance. SAND/USD daily chart Should German chancellor Scholz come out with some negative comments and ramp up the rhetoric of full-scale escalation of the tensions, expect (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/shiba-inu-to-enter-the-metaverse-and-challenge-axie-infinity-sandbox-and-decentraland-202202091718) a knee jerk reaction with a firm rejection or false break of the red descending trend line, trapping bulls and pushing them out of their positions as SAND price action collapses back towards $3.50. From there, another leg lower could follow towards $3.00, with the 200-day SMA coming in at around $2.85 and playing its part as a supportive element in the belief that a recovery is still possible. If the 200-day SMA is no match for the downward pressure, expect a break and further push towards $2.50 or $2.00.
Crypto Airdrop - Explanation - How Does It Work?

Ripple (XRP) Increases By 1.7%, AVAX By 12%, (BTC) Bitcoin Gains 4.4%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 16.02.2022 08:40
Cryptocurrencies rose on Tuesday on the back of strengthening stock indices and falling protective assets like gold, the yen, and treasuries. Bitcoin started its rise before the news about Russia and Ukraine hit the wires and sparked risk-on sentiments. Technical factors may have influenced the first cryptocurrency's strengthening, with BTC pushing back from its 50-day moving average, which has been acting as a support level for the past week. Russia has proposed allowing cryptocurrency mining in specific regions and imposing taxes on the conversion of crypto assets into fiat and is making progress in testing the digital rouble with the first interbank transfers. Bitcoin rose on Tuesday to its highest level in the past week (+4.4%), ending the day around $44,100, where it is trading on Wednesday morning. Ethereum jumped 7.3% on Tuesday, settling at $3100, while other leading altcoins from the top 10 also added: from 1.7% (XRP) to 12% (Avalanche). Overnight, crypto market capitalisation rose 2% to $1.98 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap estimates. Since early January, the market has not been consistently above the 2 trillion mark, and consolidation above could be an essential signal for bulls to move from observation to active buying. Since the end of January, there has been a notable uptrend support line that can be drawn through the local lows, which sets up optimism in the short term. The two largest cryptocurrencies, BTC and ETH, are attempting to consolidate above their 50-day averages, which previously signalled the end of a bearish phase. This was primarily made possible by optimism on Wall Street, where investors continue to buy out drawdowns. Altcoins showed outperformance, which led to a 0.3 percentage point decline in the Bitcoin Dominance Index to 40.4%. The Fear & Greed Index climbed from 46 to 51, moving into the Neutral from the Fear territory.
Binance Coin set for pop above significant resistance as relief rally takes a short halt

Binance Coin set for pop above significant resistance as relief rally takes a short halt

FXStreet News FXStreet News 16.02.2022 16:18
Binance Coin takes a small step back this morning due to some profit-taking.BNB bulls hold all the cards as the relief rally is not over yet.Expect a pop above $444-$452 with a profit target set at $480 for the moment.Binance Coin (BNB) price action shot back above the red descending trend line yesterday with a massive relief rally that lifted market sentiment. With that, the downtrend looks to be broken, and an uptrend could be on the cards if bulls can take out the $444-$452 resistance barrier with a triple top formation, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the longer-term pivotal level all coincide in this region. Once through there, expect the next stage to be set for a move towards $480 with the 200-day SMA coming in, returning another 10%.Binance Coin set for the second phase in the recovery rallyBinance Coin is undergoing some profit-taking this morning after the solid relief rally from yesterday (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-decentraland-binance-dogecoin-asian-wrap-16-feb-video-202202160214) that has lifted market sentiment and saw some decent inflows into markets. On the way up, bulls hit some resistance from the double top from February 08 and January 21 and, in the process, made it a triple top resistance. This, together with the already known $452 and the 55-day SMA coming in at $445, makes it a substantial (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/binance-coin-must-break-out-above-this-level-before-bnb-can-retest-660-202202152150) barrier that will need to be broken to prove that the relief rally still has plenty of juice to go.Expect thus some profit-taking today, a little bit on the back foot with $419 as support to bounce off back to $445. Some more positive signals coming from the Russia-Ukraine developments could be the needed additional catalyst to push through this difficult barrier. The next target is set at $480, with the 200-day SMA falling in line with that considerable number, resulting in probably the same profit-taking pattern (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/dogecoin-and-shiba-inu-price-climbs-as-binance-smart-chain-whales-accumulate-meme-coins-202202151719) as BNB price action shows today.BNB/USD daily chartOverall, the US keeps claiming that the situation in Central-Europe remains precarious and could see an escalation (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-bitcoin-binance-coin-and-decentraland-european-wrap-11-february-202202111055) any time now. Once those headlines hit the wires, expect the whole cryptocurrency space to collapse and for there to be a massive pullback from investors, with BNB price falling back initially to $389. Depending on the severity of the attacks, another push lower towards $340 would be the logical outcome and result in BNB price shedding 22% of its value.
Wednesday Wasn't A Big Gain Day For BTC (+0.1%), ETH Added More (+1.4%)

Wednesday Wasn't A Big Gain Day For BTC (+0.1%), ETH Added More (+1.4%)

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 17.02.2022 09:15
Bitcoin ended Wednesday with symbolic gains, gaining 0.1% to stay around $44,100. Ethereum rose 1.4%, and the other leading altcoins in the top ten also showed mostly upward momentum, from 0.3% (Binance Coin) to 5.5% (Avalanche). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, grew by 0.9% over the day, to $2.09 trillion. Altcoins were in high demand, which led to a decrease in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.3%, to 40.1%. The Fear and Greed Index rose another 1 point to 52 (neutral). For the second time this month, Bitcoin's growth is interrupted by attempts to gain a foothold above $45,000. In the event of a pullback, traders should monitor the dynamics near 42,000, where Bitcoin found support at the beginning of the week. Consolidation between 42,000 and 45,000 can be regarded as a positive signal, as it will consolidate confidence that the downtrend of recent months will not resume after a pause. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has launched an audit of the US representative office of the Binance crypto exchange. The Canadian authorities intend to track transactions in cryptocurrencies and block bank accounts in order to cut off funding for the Freedom Convoy truckers' protest movement. Twitter has added support for Ethereum addresses to the money transfer service within its application. The Bank of Russia plans to start the second stage of testing the cryptoruble in autumn. On Thursday morning, the markets and bitcoin experienced a downward momentum due to news of shelling in Ukraine. Cryptocurrencies reacted impulsively as a risk asset, but last week's example shows that they can also act as safe havens, as some investors may try to save capital using Bitcoin, Ethereum and a number of other large altcoins.
Crypto Airdrop - Explanation - How Does It Work?

Thursday: Significant Decreases Of Bitcoin (-7.7%) And ETH (-7.7%)

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 18.02.2022 08:52
Bitcoin collapsed on Thursday, the most in almost a month amid sales of risky assets. BTC lost 7.7%, ending the day near $40,700. Ethereum fell 7.7%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten also fell, from 5.4% (Binance Coin) to 8.5% (Terra). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, sank by 7.3%, to $1.94 trillion. Bitcoin sold more actively than altcoins, which led to a decrease in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.3%, to 39.8%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index plummeted 22 points to 30, returning to a state of fear. Bitcoin has clearly lost its function as a defensive asset lately, showing almost no correlation with gold, which was in high demand on Wednesday and Thursday. The technical picture looks bearish in the short term. Bitcoin did not hold above the 50-day average and fell under previous local lows. It is quite possible that from the end of January to mid-February, we saw a pullback after the momentum of the decline, and now a new step down is being formed. JPMorgan Bank indicated that crypto assets would be negatively affected by tightening US monetary policy. This approach puts crypto on a par with growth companies, which have also come under increased pressure amid rising market interest rates in recent weeks. Charles Munger, an associate of legendary investor Warren Buffett, likened cryptocurrencies to a "venereal disease" and praised China for banning them. According to him, cryptocurrencies are used by hackers, criminals, as well as those who evade taxes.
Decentralized Autonomous Organisation - Another Addition To Our Personal Dictionaries

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Investors spooked by renewed geopolitical tensions

FXStreet News FXStreet News 17.02.2022 16:10
Bitcoin price gets caught in a bearish triangle as tensions in Ukraine flare up again. Ethereum price returns to pivotal support, money repatriation goes into the second day. XRP price in pennant ready for a bearish breakout under the current sentiment. Cryptocurrencies are on the back foot as investors are getting worried about the escalating situation between Ukraine and Russia, as more reports come in from shots in the Donbas region near Luhansk. As the situation does not seem to de-escalate, investors are pulling their money out of what was believed to be the start of a solid and longer-term relief rally that is stalling at the moment. With more downside pressure to come, expect all significant cryptocurrencies to fall back to supportive pivotal levels. Bitcoin price falls into a bearish triangle, set to dip back below $40,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price is getting battered on Thursday after a fade on Wednesday that could still be attributed to some short-term profit-taking. The extension of the falls seems to confirm that sentiment is yet again dipping below zero towards risk-off. Investors pulling out their funds preemptively is reflected with the sharp decline in the Relative Strength Index, where the sell-side demand is outpacing the buy-side demand. In this context, Bitcoin price will remain under pressure for the rest of the week and could be set to slip below $40,000 in the coming days as the situation in Ukraine is set to deteriorate again, potentially inflicting further damage to the market mood. BTC price sees bulls unable to hold price action above $44,088 and in the process is forming a descending trend line that, together with the base at $41,756, is forming a bearish triangle. Expect Bitcoin valuation to decline further as the tensions around Luhansk increase by the hour. Once the $41,756 support is broken, the road is open for a nosedive towards $39,780 with the $40,000 psychological level broken yet again to the downside. BTC/USD daily chart A hail mary could be provided by the 55-day Simple Moving Average at $42,340, which already provided support on February 9 and February 15. With that move, a sudden breakthrough in the peace talks could become the needed catalyst to improve the situation and dislocate Bitcoin price action from the drag of the geopolitical news that is weighing. Bitcoin would see the demand on the buy-side blow up and see a big pop above $44,088. Ethereum bulls are breaking their jaws on the 55-day SMA as the price fades further Ethereum (ETH) price is getting crushed against the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $3,143, with bulls unfit to push and try to close price action above it. After three failed attempts in a row, it is becoming clear that the bullish support is wearing thin as, on Tuesday, the daily candle closed above there, and even if the next day ETH price opened above again, it closed below the 55-day SMA. On Wednesday, finally, both the open and the closing price were below the 55-day SMA. This proves that sentiment has shifted in just three trading days and looks set to fade further away from the 55-day SMA on Friday. Expect going forward in the next coming hours that bulls will get squeezed against the wall at $3,018 with both a pivotal level and the $3,000 marker a few dollars below there. As tensions mount, expect some more negative headlines, a breach in defense of the bulls with even the monthly pivot at $2,929 getting involved in the crosshairs. Depending on the severity and the further deterioration of the political situation in Ukraine and the correction in the stock markets, it is possible to see a nosedive towards $2,695. ETH/USD daily chart Global market sentiment is hanging on the lips of Ukraine and the geopolitical situation. With that, it is clear that once the situation gets resolved or de-escalates, markets can shift 180 degrees in a matter of seconds. That same rule applies to cryptocurrencies where Ethereum could pop back above the 55-day SMA and even set sail for $3,391, breaking the high of February and flirting with new highs for 2022. Bulls joining the rally will want to keep a close eye and be mindful of the RSI, as that would start to flirt with being overbought and, from there on, limiting any further big moves in the hours or next trading days to come. Ethereum short squeeze could trigger a spike to $4,000 XRP price set to lose 10% of market value as headline news breaks down relief rally Ripple (XRP) price is stuck in a pennant and is close to a breakout that looks set to be a bearish one. As global markets are continuing the fade from Wednesday, XRP price is breaking below the recent low and sees bears hammering down on the ascending side of the pennant. As more negative headlines cross the wires, expect this to add ammunition for bears to continue and start breaking the pennant to the downside. XRP price will look for support on the next support at hand, which comes in at $0.78, and depending on the severity of the news flow, that level should hold again as it did on February 14. If that is not the caseany further downside will be cut short by the double bottom around $0.75 from February 12 and 13 and the 55-day SMA coming in at or around that area. With that move, the RSI will be triggering some "oversold" red flags and see bears booking profit. XRP/USD daily chart A false bearish breakout could easily see bears trapped on entering on the break to the downside out of the pennant as bulls go in for the squeeze. That would mean that price shoots up towards $0.88 and takes out this week's high. Bears would be forced to change sides and join the buy-side demand to close their losing positions, adding to even more demand and possibly hitting $0.90 in the process. XRP set to explode towards $1.00, bulls hopeful over SEC vs Ripple case
Ukraine parliament approves crypto legislation amidst rising geopolitical tension

Ukraine parliament approves crypto legislation amidst rising geopolitical tension

FXStreet News FXStreet News 18.02.2022 16:20
Ukraine has revised its cryptocurrency bill and replaced the regulatory body for oversight on cryptocurrencies. Amidst rising geopolitical tensions, Ukraine has established the National Securities and Stock Market Commission of Ukraine.The updated version of the crypto bill identifies the National Bank of Ukraine and NSSMC as two major crypto regulators. Verkhovna Rada, the Parliament of Ukraine, has approved significant amendments in the country’s cryptocurrency bill, “On Virtual Assets.” Proponents consider the amendment bullish for the adoption of cryptocurrencies in Ukraine. Ukraine passes legislation on cryptocurrency bill amendmentWhile geopolitical tension rises, cryptocurrencies have suffered a bloodbath. Ukrainian Rada has passed the legislation in the second reading despite the dropping price and market capitalization, with 272 out of 365 deputies supporting the bill. The Ministry of Digital Transformation is no longer on the list of authorities overseeing the cryptocurrency market. The Parliament has appointed The National Securities and Stock Market Commission of Ukraine or NSSMC to regulate the cryptocurrency market. The updated version of the cryptocurrency bill appoints the two significant authorities National Bank of Ukraine and the NSSMC, as regulators of the crypto market. The authorities have been appointed to oversee the turnover of assets backed by currency valuables. Cryptocurrency assets and derivative financial instruments would be regulated under the new provisions. Alex Bornyakov, the Deputy Minister of Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation, believes that the ministry’s latest moves indicate an acceptance of cryptocurrencies in Ukraine. The country first started working on its crypto bill in November 2021, adopting cryptocurrencies to become a leader in the ecosystem. However, the initial crypto bill was sent back to the Parliament for further consideration. The news of the amendment is considered positive for adopting cryptocurrencies in Ukraine. This could contribute to a rise in demand in times of geopolitical tension.
COT Currency Speculators raise their Euro Futures bullish bets to 26-week high

COT Currency Speculators raise their Euro Futures bullish bets to 26-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 19.02.2022 18:38
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the gains in the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculators boosted their bullish bets for a second straight week this week and for the eighth time out of the past nine weeks. Over this nine-week time-frame, Euro bets have jumped by a total of +59,460 contracts, going from -10,162 net positions on December 21st to +47,581 net positions this week. These gains in the Euro sentiment have now brought the speculator positioning to the highest level in the past twenty-six weeks, dating back to August 17th. Joining the Euro (8,739 contracts) with positive changes this week were the US Dollar Index (1,621 contracts), Brazil real (3,514 contracts), Mexican peso (7,730 contracts),  British pound sterling (10,782 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,033 contracts), Russian ruble (721 contracts) and the Bitcoin futures (104 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-7,014 contracts), Canadian dollar (-2,716 contracts), Australian dollar (-953 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-316 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,283 77 35,386 87 -41,548 6 6,162 84 EUR 702,047 84 47,581 50 -85,057 52 37,476 36 GBP 195,302 36 2,237 76 2,874 31 -5,111 45 JPY 199,425 55 -66,162 26 86,256 79 -20,094 6 CHF 45,522 22 -9,715 53 18,888 52 -9,173 36 CAD 144,815 27 12,170 59 -15,116 47 2,946 36 AUD 192,578 77 -86,694 4 97,684 92 -10,990 26 NZD 64,105 71 -9,333 56 12,020 49 -2,687 21 MXN 151,098 26 8,974 31 -12,054 68 3,080 56 RUB 38,960 35 16,164 52 -17,239 46 1,075 64 BRL 67,288 85 23,760 100 -26,225 0 2,465 95 Bitcoin 10,646 56 -215 92 -213 0 428 23   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 35,386 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,765 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.0 5.0 14.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.8 81.5 3.2 – Net Position: 35,386 -41,548 6,162 – Gross Longs: 42,349 2,717 7,897 – Gross Shorts: 6,963 44,265 1,735 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 4.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.8 5.6 83.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.4 5.3 5.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 47,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,842 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.0 54.7 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.3 66.8 7.4 – Net Position: 47,581 -85,057 37,476 – Gross Longs: 217,899 383,827 89,120 – Gross Shorts: 170,318 468,884 51,644 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.6 51.7 36.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.1 -16.6 15.7   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,237 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,782 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,545 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.7 58.8 12.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.5 57.4 15.0 – Net Position: 2,237 2,874 -5,111 – Gross Longs: 50,151 114,901 24,257 – Gross Shorts: 47,914 112,027 29,368 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.6 31.4 45.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.8 -27.6 10.8   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -66,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,148 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.2 83.6 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.4 40.3 19.6 – Net Position: -66,162 86,256 -20,094 – Gross Longs: 10,425 166,645 18,973 – Gross Shorts: 76,587 80,389 39,067 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.2 79.0 6.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 0.7 5.2   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,399 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.0 72.6 19.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.4 31.2 39.2 – Net Position: -9,715 18,888 -9,173 – Gross Longs: 3,652 33,069 8,654 – Gross Shorts: 13,367 14,181 17,827 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.0 52.1 36.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.3 4.8 -11.9   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 12,170 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,886 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.6 40.4 19.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.2 50.9 17.5 – Net Position: 12,170 -15,116 2,946 – Gross Longs: 54,424 58,524 28,287 – Gross Shorts: 42,254 73,640 25,341 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.5 46.6 35.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.5 -16.4 0.9   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -86,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -953 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,741 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.1 81.0 10.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.1 30.2 15.9 – Net Position: -86,694 97,684 -10,990 – Gross Longs: 11,692 155,928 19,706 – Gross Shorts: 98,386 58,244 30,696 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.4 91.8 25.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.5 -2.3 1.1   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,366 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.9 55.3 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.4 36.5 8.6 – Net Position: -9,333 12,020 -2,687 – Gross Longs: 24,923 35,432 2,838 – Gross Shorts: 34,256 23,412 5,525 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.6 48.9 21.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.8 2.6 -13.7   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,974 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,730 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,244 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.4 56.0 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.4 64.0 2.1 – Net Position: 8,974 -12,054 3,080 – Gross Longs: 59,485 84,673 6,250 – Gross Shorts: 50,511 96,727 3,170 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 67.8 56.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.9 -8.0 3.0   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 23,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,514 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,246 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.1 16.5 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.8 55.5 2.4 – Net Position: 23,760 -26,225 2,465 – Gross Longs: 51,868 11,101 4,095 – Gross Shorts: 28,108 37,326 1,630 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 95.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 33.1 -36.1 31.8   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 16,164 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,443 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.8 42.2 6.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.4 86.4 4.2 – Net Position: 16,164 -17,239 1,075 – Gross Longs: 19,808 16,440 2,700 – Gross Shorts: 3,644 33,679 1,625 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.4 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.6 46.0 63.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.9 -19.2 -12.7   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 104 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -319 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.0 3.5 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 80.0 5.5 8.8 – Net Position: -215 -213 428 – Gross Longs: 8,307 369 1,364 – Gross Shorts: 8,522 582 936 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.2 22.8 22.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.5 -9.8 -6.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Bullish momentum remains strong

Bullish momentum remains strong

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 20.02.2022 17:36
Even at the last important low (US$$1,750) on December 15th, 2021, the sentiment was still awful as the sector had become the most hated asset class. Now fast-forward, gold has been successfully breaking out of its multi month triangle and keeps sprinting higher. The bulls currently are bending the daily and weekly Bollinger Bands to the upside, and seasonality is still supportive.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 20th, 2022.Looking at the weekly chart, it appears that gold not only broke out of a triangle consolidation pattern, but also out of a large inverse head and shoulder pattern. It’s not a textbook head and shoulder, but worthwhile noting. A measured move projection could theoretically take gold towards US$2,125! However, the monthly Bollinger Band, sitting at around US$ 1,975, might be a much more realistic target for the ongoing move. As you might remember, the zone between US$1,950 to US$1,975 is very strong resistance. We would not rule out a short-lived overshoot towards US$,2000, though.Overall, the weekly chart is not yet overbought and looks bullish. Hence, the rally has very good chances to continue for a few more weeks.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.As expected, the breakout above US$1,840 to US$1,850 has unleashed enough energy to quickly push gold prices towards the round psychological number of US$1,900. Fortunately, the daily stochastic has transformed its overboughtness into the rare “embedded status”, where both signal lines are sitting above 80 for more than three days in a row. Hence, the uptrend is locked-in and shorting this market would be fighting the uptrend.Of course, given the uncertain and complex geopolitical situation, events can and likely will strongly influence gold over the coming days and weeks. Speaking from a technical point of you, any pullback towards the breakout zone around US$1,845 would be a buying opportunity. However, prices below US$1,875 would already be a surprise in the short-term. On the contrary, it’s much more likely that gold will continue its run to at least US$1,930 over the coming days.In summary, the daily chart is bullish. Especially the bullish embedded stochastic oscillator likely will not allow any larger pullback, but rather a consolidation around US$1,900. Watch those two signal lines. Only if one of them would be dropping below 80on a daily close, the bull run might be over!GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.GDX, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold & gold related mining stocks often stabilize your portfolio during uncertain times and do act as a hedge. While the stock market continued its dive due to the crisis in Ukraine and the potential interest rate turnaround in the US, the GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF is up more than 21.5% since its low in mid of December. Over the last two weeks, the leading gold mining stocks recorded some of their best days in the last 12 months. Last week, Barrick Gold ($GOLD) jumped up more than 7% due to good earnings, a dividend increase, and a new share repurchase program. Some smaller gold stocks like Sabina Gold & Silver ($SGSVF) went up even more (+15% Friday, 11th).Now that gold is on the rise, it’s time for the beaten down and undervalued mining stocks to catch up. Usually, it starts with the big senior produces like Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle Mines ($AEM) and Newmont Corporation ($NEM), then the juniors like for example Victoria Gold Corp. ($VITFF) join and finally, the explorer and developers literally explode higher.However, the GDX has nearly reached its downtrend line as well as the 38.2% retracement of the whole corrective wave since August 2020. Hence, the big miners are running into string resistance and might need to consolidate soon.At the same time, note, that silver has been lagging. Silver always lags most of the time, but in the final stage of sector wide rally it suddenly passes all the other metals and shots up nearly vertically. That also typically is the sign that the rally in the sector is coming to an end. Obviously, we have not yet seen any strong silver days. Therefore, silver actually confirms that the sector has more room and time to run higher!Conclusion: Bullish momentum remains strongOverall, gold continues to look promising here as the bullish momentum remains strong. Hence, Gold is probably on the way towards US$1,950 and US$1,975, with a slight chance for an overshot to US$2,000. But of course, given the rather overbought daily chart, the risk/reward is not that good anymore. Silver and many of the smaller mining stocks, however, might still offer a chance to play the ongoing rally over the next few weeks. Once gold tops out in spring, expect a big pullback. Maybe even back towards the higher trending 200-day moving average (currently at US$1,808) at some point in midsummer. But that is all somewhere in the future. For now, the bullish momentum remains strong.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|February 20th, 2022|Tags: $GDXJ, Barrick Gold, GDX, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, gold fundamentals, Newmont Corporation, precious metals, Reyna Gold, Sabina Gold & Silver, Silver, silver bull, US-Dollar, Victoria Gold|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
Kind Of A Small Downtrend Visible On DAX Chart

Kind Of A Small Downtrend Visible On DAX Chart

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 21.02.2022 10:43
The geopolitical momentum of the escalation/truce situation around Ukraine strikingly has its weekly cycles. Harsh rhetoric seems to peak at the end of the week, followed by the weekend’s relief when the sides look for ways to negotiate, giving a breath of air to global markets early in the week. This week, the same pattern applies with demand for EM currencies and European indices returning to their starting positions before Friday’s collapse. The announced talks between the Russian and US foreign ministers and the chances of a summit between Biden and Putin bring back hopes of a peaceful resolution. However, it is worth realising that the situation remains fragile, and so far, with each new cycle of this momentum, the present situation has become more dramatic. And this is visible in the dynamics of the European indices, where the DAX formed a double top in January and in February began to churn in line with the geopolitical background, maintaining a downward bias and approaching a critical support level that has been in place since last May. The pressure on the DAX to consolidate under the 15,000 mark is occurring on two fronts at once. Firstly, geopolitical tensions are reducing the traction in risky assets of the European region. In addition, fears of energy supply disruptions in the EU due to Russia form the background, with high oil and gas prices holding back the economic recovery. Secondly, the monetary policy outlook continues to be reassessed. ECB officials are talking more and more confidently about a rate hike this year and leaving the door open for such a move as early as September. If the bears manage to push the DAX below the nine-month support, we might see an acceleration of the corrective pullback that could take the index down to 14000 within the next couple of weeks. If the politicians’ rhetoric doesn’t seem to be easing, the next target for a retracement might be the 13000-area, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the extremes of March 2020 and November 2021.
Markets News: Crude Oil, Gold, EuroStoxx 600, Copper

Analysing Macro, The Conflict In Eastern Europe, Standard And Poor 500 And US100

Purple Trading Purple Trading 21.02.2022 12:53
The Swing Overview – Week 7 Macroeconomic events last week had a secondary impact on market volatility. The "big story" that is currently moving the markets is the situation in Ukraine. Equity indices weakened and retested their strong supports. Last week's winner, on the other hand, is the gold, which, due to these geopolitical uncertainties, surprisingly strengthened to USD 1,900 per ounce, where it last traded in June 2021.   Macroeconomic data from the US  US industrial inflation on an annual basis came in at 9.7%, up from 9.8% in the previous month. This is the first decline in industrial inflation since April 2020. Retail sales reported very strong data, rising 3.8% in January (previous month was down 2.5%).  In the labor market, there was an unexpected increase in initial jobless claims of 248k (expectations were for a 219k increase). FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday did not indicate that the Fed was seriously considering a 0.50% rate hike in March. This gave the markets and risk currencies a temporary boost, but the main driver of the markets last week was the situation in Ukraine. Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine Last week Friday, when Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, warned that Russia could attack Ukraine "any day now", sent stock indices into the red and investors focused on so-called "save havens" such as the US bonds and the gold, which rallied strongly. In contrast, commodity currencies, stock indices and cryptocurrencies, which are seen as risky assets, weakened. This suggests what might happen if an invasion actually took place. At the moment, however, both sides seem to be open to diplomatic solution of the crisis. This brings some relief and cautious optimism even though further developments are unclear.  Let’s have a look at how the US bond yields are reacting to the situation: Figure 1: 10 year government bond yield on the 4H chart and the USD index on the daily chart Demand for these bonds has been rising as investors view the US government bonds as a "save haven" in times of uncertainty. This increases the price of these bonds. Since there is an inverse relationship between the price of bonds and their interest yield, a rise in the price of bonds then pushes down their yields. This explains why the yield on these bonds fell on Friday last week as a result of the news of a possible Russian attack.   Overall, however, yields on these bonds continue to rise as investors anticipate a rise in the US interest rates. This in turn has had a negative effect on the technology stocks in the NASDAQ index in particular.   NASDAQ a SP500 Figure 2: The US NASDAQ index on H4 and D1 chart The NASDAQ started last week on Friday with a significant decline as the other indices.  Then there was a correction of this decline as news emerged that Russia was withdrawing some of its troops from the Ukrainian border and that military exercises were over. However, the next report was that the US was not seeing any change at the border with Ukraine and the NASDAQ index fell again. The current situation is that both sides have agreed to further negotiations.  It can be seen from this how sensitive the indices are to such news. We therefore recommend that our clients keep an eye on any breaking news that emerges in relation to the situation in Ukraine.  The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 14,606 - 14,673. The next resistance is then 15050 - 15100.  Support according to the H4 chart is at 14,050 - 14,100.  Significant support according to the daily chart is at 13,750-13,950.  As for the US SP 500 index, the situation is similar here.   Figure 3: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart The nearest resistance is at 4,471 – 4,491. The next strong resistance is in the area at 4,580 - 4,600.  Support according to the H4 chart is at 4,357 – 4,367. According to the daily chart, significant support is at 4,225 - 4,300.   German DAX index Germany reported ZEW economic sentiment, which came in at 54.3 (previous month 51.7). This indicates an improving outlook for the German economy over the next six months. However, this index was under pressure last week as were the US indices.  Figure 4: The DAX on H4 and daily chart  On February 14, the index fell to 14,841, where the previous support is. The zone of this strong support according to the daily chart is quite wide: 14,800 - 15,000. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is 15,440 - 15,530. The next resistance then immediately follows this zone and is in the 15 534 - 15 617 range.   The EUR/USD under pressure The EURUSD has shown that in times of political uncertainty, this pair tends to weaken. The decline was justified in terms of technical analysis by the false break of the resistance, which is in the area of 1.1465 - 1.1480. Figure 5: EURUSD on H4 and daily chart The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is in the area of 1.1380 - 1.1400. Support according to the H4 chart is at 1.1280 - 1.1300. Very strong support according to the daily chart is then at 1.1120 - 1.1140.   The Gold The gold surprised last week with unexpected strength based on the situation around Ukraine. News that Russia may attack Ukraine any day has caused the gold price to rise. It eventually reached $1,900 per troy ounce, where it last traded in June 2021.  Figure 6: The gold on the H4 and D1 chart The nearest resistance according to the daily chart is USD 1,900 - 1,916 per troy ounce of gold.  The nearest support is 1,872 - 1,878. The most significant support is then at 1 845 - 1 852 USD per troy ounce. Once geopolitical tensions calm down and US government bond yields continue to rise, this should be negative news for gold. 
Crypto Charts - BTC Monthly, Weekly, Daily Chart

Crypto Charts - BTC Monthly, Weekly, Daily Chart

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 22.02.2022 09:33
Bitcoin, best in play   The Covid environment brought an additional variant risk factor to the table, especially when it comes to investor psychology. Our last weekly chart book publication made a case for positioning one’s risk hedge plays this year when equity markets most likely trade in a volatile sideways range. We also spoke of a proper wealth preservation strategy, holding both bitcoin and gold within a hedged risk reduction approach for your monies. With our primary focus on risk, the next question is allocation size between bitcoin and gold. As mentioned in the intro, it feels intuitively natural to have significant exposure to the gold side from a cycle history. Yet, insurance seems essential at this time, and as such, we tend to be a bit more aggressive towards bitcoin allocations. Bitcoin, daily chart, not just yet: Bitcoin, daily chart as of February 22nd, 2022. The daily chart reflects the common notion of bitcoin trading alongside PMI numbers and the market as a whole. With the recent break of the modest bounce from the US$33,500 level up leg (yellow up-channel), no immediate low-risk entries for longer-term exposure seems in play.   Bitcoin, weekly chart, great setup, bitcoin, best in play: Bitcoin, weekly chart as of February 22nd, 2022. Nevertheless, we find now zooming out to the weekly time frame a quite interesting entry zone (white box) between the levels US$30,000 to US$34,000. We identified by stacking multiple edges that an entry near US$31,800 would provide the most low-risk entry profile. However, it will depend on how prices will arrive at these levels. As such, we encourage you to check back in our free Telegram channel.  There we post-entries, and exits for educational purposes in real-time. Bitcoin, monthly chart, amazing potential: Bitcoin, monthly chart as of February 22nd, 2022. Where matters become more transparent, and our headlines supported, is at a view of the monthly chart. The first leg up was nothing short of a 1,600% advancement. Now we have been trading for a year in a bullish up sloping sideways channel. With a possible entry at the lows of this channel, a long-term investment provides for a stellar risk/reward-ratio. The second legs are typically longer than the first legs! But that is not all; bitcoin has a higher probability of four-leg moves versus three-leg moves. Consequently, this trade could turn out to be highly profitable after some time. One aspect of risk is the relationship between the size of a potential down move of price and the size of a likely up move. We find bitcoins’ upward potential much more significant than gold for its fundamental characteristics and stellar outperforming history percentagewise. Bitcoin, best in play: Summing it up, bitcoin might not be at its lowest retracement levels yet. Still, its powerful potential in risk/reward-ratio and as an overall risk hedge makes it best in play. We share a low-risk cost averaging in strategy in our free Telegram channel. We find that allocation of funds should be more dominant towards bitcoin. In addition, holding some cash as much as money is deflating can still be a good strategy. Cash is king to purchase desired goods and vehicles, especially when those are even more depressed.    Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 22nd, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin correction, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, NASDAQ, quad exit, S&P 500, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments
The Crypto Market Leader Leaved $40k And Trades Ca. $4-5k Lower

The Crypto Market Leader Leaved $40k And Trades Ca. $4-5k Lower

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.02.2022 10:28
Losing for the sixth day in a row, bitcoin is approaching a retest of the intermediate round level of 35,000, near which buyers became more active at the end of last month. A further decline could open a direct road to the 30,000 area, where the coin was bought back twice in 2021. Given the changed macroeconomic conditions and the pressure on risky assets, will the crypto remain as interesting at these same levels? Cryptocurrencies once again fell under geopolitical pressure, although a relatively small decline was caused by the absence of major US players due to a holiday in the US. And again, risky assets, from stocks to digital currencies, collapsed with the aggravation of the situation around Ukraine, where investors fear conflict in Eastern Europe. Against this background, one of the world's largest hedge funds, Man Group, called bitcoin a risky asset, as indicated by the growing correlation of BTC with the Nasdaq stock index. Black Swan author Nassim Taleb criticized bitcoin as a hedge, calling it "the perfect game for losers" in an environment of low interest rates. Huobi co-founder Du Jun expects bitcoin to rise to new highs no earlier than 2025, basing his assumptions on halving-related price cycles. Bitcoin was down 3.1% on Monday, ending the day near $37,100, continuing to drop moderately on Tuesday morning to $36,700. Ethereum lost 3%, falling back to $2,500, while other top-ten altcoins also mostly sank: from 4.9 % (Binance Coin) to 7.1% (Solana). The exception was Terra, which posted a 3.8% increase. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, fell by 7.3% over the day, to $1.66 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index rose from 41.7% to 42.2% due to a sharper decline in altcoins. The fear and greed index lost 5 points to 20, deepening into a state of "extreme fear."
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/2/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/2/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 22.02.2022 11:48
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/2/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 1,621 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,979 contracts and an increase in short positions by 358 contracts. Growth in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound and the New Zealand dollar. Decrease in total net positions occurred in the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, and the Swiss franc. In the event of a Russian invasion to Ukraine, markets would move into risk-off sentiment. This means that investors would sell risk assets, which include stock indices, and shift their resources into assets that are considered as safe havens in such situations, which include US government bonds and gold. In currency terms, this means that the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc in particular could then appreciate in such a situation. Commodity currencies (especially AUD, NZD) might weaken. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators Date USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399 Feb 01, 2022 34571 29716 -23605 -79829 -11698 -60640 18264 -8239 Jan 25, 2022 36861 31560 -7763 -83273 -10773 -68273 12317 -8796 Jan 18, 2022 36434 24584 -247 -88454 -8331 -80879 7492 -10810 Jan 11, 2022 37892 6005 -29166 -91486 -8604 -87525 -7376 -7660 Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the end of this report. Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Bullish Feb 01, 2022 685431 213563 183847 29716 2479 155 1999 -1844 Weak bullish Jan 25, 2022 682952 213408 181848 31560 -8930 1507 -5469 6976 Bullish Jan 18, 2022 691882 211901 187317 24584 9589 7540 -11039 18579 Bullish Jan 11, 2022 682293 204361 198356 6005 4075 5288 -2271 7559 Bullish         Total change 23829 18826 -30309 49135     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 47,581 contracts last week, up by 8,739 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,074 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 9,813 contracts. Total net speculators positions have increased by 49,135 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators closing 30,309 short positions and adding 18,826 long positions. This data suggests continued bullish sentiment for the euro. However, the rising open interest, which increased by 1,949 contracts in the last week, shows the opposite, as the euro fell down last week and this decline is supported by the rising number of open interest contracts. So more bearish traders were in the market. So we have conflicting information here. The euro weakened slightly last week on fears of an escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Long-term resistance: 1.1461 – 1.15 Support: 1.1280 - 1.1300. Next support is near 1.1220 - 1.1240. A strong support is in 1.1120-1.1140. The British Pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 184007 29597 53202 -23605 1967 -7069 8773 -15842 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 182040 36666 44429 -7763 -1194 -3094 4422 -7516 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 183234 39760 40007 -247 -17259 9254 -19665 28919 Weak bearish Jan 11, 2022 200493 30506 59672 -29166 486 4526 -5479 10005 Weak bearish         Total change -4705 24171 -17237 41408     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 2,237 contracts last week, up by 10,782 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions of 5,442 contracts and a decrease in short positions of 5,340 contracts. Total net positions have increased by 41,408 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exiting 17,237 short positions and adding 24,171 long positions. This data suggests bullish sentiment for the pound. Open interest, which fell by 2,646 contracts last week, is indicating that the bullish price action that occurred in the pound last week was not supported by volume and therefore it is weak. Risk off sentiment in US equities could have a negative effect on the Pound as well as the Euro, which could then send the Pound towards support which is at 1.3380. Long-term resistance: 1.3620-1.3640. Next resistance is near 1.3680 – 1.3750. Support: 1.3490 – 1.3520. A next support is near 1.3320 – 1.3380 and then mainly in the zone near 1.3200. The Australian dollar   Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish Feb 01, 2022 196913 18835 98664 -79829 6893 3714 270 3444 Weak bearish Jan 25, 2022 190020 15121 98394 -83273 8884 6070 889 5181 Weak bearish Jan 18, 2022 181136 9051 97505 -88454 -4317 -3332 -6364 3032 Weak bearish Jan 11, 2022 185453 12383 103869 -91486 5346 -249 1871 -2120 Bearish         Total change 12471 -940 -3612 2672     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1 Total net speculator positions last week reached -86,694 contracts, down 953 contracts from the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions of 5,631 contracts and a decrease in short positions of 4,678 contracts. This data suggests continued bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar, which is confirmed by the downtrend. Total net positions have increased by 2,672 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exit of 3,612 short contracts while exiting 940 long contracts at the same time. However, last week saw a decrease in open interest of 3,825 contracts. This means that the upward price action that occurred last week was weak in terms of volume because new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar is very sensitive to the international geopolitical situation. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalates, we can expect it to weaken especially on the AUDUSD pair and also the AUDJPY. Long-term resistance: 0.7200-0.7250 and especially near 0.7270-0.7310. Long-term support: 0.7085-0.7120. A strong support is near 0.6960 – 0.6990. The New Zealand dollar   Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 58467 19205 30903 -11698 5151 3257 4182 -925 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 53316 15948 26721 -10773 8589 4336 6778 -2442 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 44727 11612 19943 -8331 2661 652 379 273 Weak bearish Jan 11, 2022 42066 10960 19564 -8604 1764 1543 1302 241 Weak bearish         Celková změna 23803 15506 15994 -488     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached a negative value last week - 9,333 contracts, having increased by 1,033 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 7,755 contracts and an increase in short positions by 6,722 contracts. This data suggests that the bearish sentiment for the New Zealand Dollar continues, but has started to weaken over the past week. Total net positions have declined by 488 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators adding 15,994 short positions and adding 15,506 long positions. Open interest rose significantly last week, increasing by 9,228 contracts. The rise in the NZDUSD price action that occurred last week is therefore supported by volume and therefore the move was strong. The reason for the NZD strengthening last week is that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to raise interest rates to 1% on Feb 23, 2022. However, if the conflict in Ukraine escalates further, the NZDUSD could more likely weaken. The reason for the NZDUSD's decline from a technical analysis perspective could also be that the NZDUSD price has reached horizontal resistance and also the upper downtrend line from the daily chart. Long-term resistance: 0.6700 – 0.6740 and then 0.6850 – 0.6890. Long-term support: 0.6590-0.6600 and the next support is at 0.6500 – 0.6530. Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Is It Like XAUUSD Is Supported By Everything? How Long Will The Strengthening Last?

Is It Like XAUUSD Is Supported By Everything? How Long Will The Strengthening Last?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 22.02.2022 16:01
  The current military tensions and the Fed’s sluggishness favor gold bulls, but not all events are positive for the yellow metal. What should we be aware of? It may be quiet on the Western Front, but quite the opposite on the Eastern Front. Russia has accumulated well over 100,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine and makes provocations practically every day, striving for war more and more clearly. Last week, shelling was reported on Ukraine’s front line and Russia carried out several false flag operations. According to Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, “the evidence on the ground is that Russia is moving toward an imminent invasion.” Meanwhile, President Biden said: “We have reason to believe they are engaged in a false flag operation to have an excuse to go in. Every indication we have is they're prepared to go into Ukraine and attack Ukraine.” Of course, what politicians say should always be taken with a pinch of salt, but it seems that the situation has gotten serious and the risk of Russian invasion has increased over recent days.   Implications for Gold What does the intensifying conflict between Russia and Ukraine imply for the gold market? Well, the last week was definitely bullish for the yellow metal. As the chart below shows, the price of gold (London P.M. Fix) rallied over the past few days from $1,849 to $,1894, the highest level since June 2021; And he gold futures have even jumped above $1,900 for a while! Part of that upward move was certainly driven by geopolitical risks related to the assumed conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This is because gold is a safe-haven asset in which investors tend to park their money in times of distress. It’s worth remembering that not all geopolitical events are positive for gold, and when they are, their impact is often short-lived. Hence, if Russia invades Ukraine, the yellow metal should gain further, but if uncertainty eases, gold prices may correct somewhat. To be clear, the timing of the current military tensions is favorable for gold bulls. First of all, we live in an environment of already high inflation. Wars tend to intensify price pressure as governments print more fiat money to finance the war effort and reorient their economies from producing consumer goods toward military stuff. Not to mention the possible impact of the conflict on oil prices, which would contribute to rising energy costs and CPI inflation. According to Morgan Stanley’s analysts, further increases in energy prices could sink several economies into an outright recession. Second, the pace of economic growth is slowing down. The Fed has been waiting so long to tighten its monetary policy that it will start hiking interest rates in a weakening economic environment, adding to the problems. There is a growing risk aversion right now, with equities and cryptocurrencies being sold off. Such an environment is supportive of gold prices. Third, the current US administration has become more engaged around the world than the previous one. My point is that the current conflict is not merely between Russia and Ukraine, but also between Russia and the United States. This is one of the reasons why gold has been reacting recently to the geopolitical news. However, a Russian invasion of Ukraine wouldn’t pose a threat to America, and the US won’t directly engage in military operations on Ukrainian land, so the rally in gold could still be short-lived. If history is any guide, geopolitical events usually trigger only temporary reactions in the precious metals markets, especially if they don’t threaten the United States and its economy directly. This is because all tensions eventually ease, and after a storm comes calm. Hence, although the media would focus on the conflict, don’t get scared and – when investing in the long run – remember gold fundamentals. Some of them are favorable, but we shouldn’t forget about the Fed’s tightening cycle and the possibility that disinflation will start soon, which could raise the real interest rates, creating downward pressure on gold prices. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Terra (LUNA) Price Went Up And The Most Popular Crypto Increased By 3.6% On Tuesday

Terra (LUNA) Price Went Up And The Most Popular Crypto Increased By 3.6% On Tuesday

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 23.02.2022 08:35
The rebound of bitcoin began along with the growth of European stock indices at the beginning of the day. They corrected up after three days of decline on the crisis around Ukraine. Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, with which BTC has been highly correlated lately, also showed gains on Tuesday. So far, the rebound of risky assets, which includes cryptocurrencies, can be considered as a movement within a downtrend. Bitcoin has been trying to correct from levels close to the lows of February, but this is probably not the bottom yet. Expectations of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve and rising geopolitical tensions are putting pressure on all risky assets. Despite the rather low levels of the Cryptocurrency Fear Index, the history of the indicator suggests that the best moments to enter were periods of falling into the 10 area. Meanwhile, Ricardo Salinas Pliego, one of the richest Mexican billionaires, called for not selling bitcoin during the fall. In his opinion, BTC will rise in the long term. Overall, Bitcoin is up 3.6% over the past day to 38,100, closing Tuesday higher after five days of decline. Ethereum gained 6.1% over the same time period, while other leading altcoins from the top ten showed mixed dynamics: from 4% growth in XRP to 13% in Terra. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, decreased by 1.5% over the day to $1.79 trillion. Altcoins grew worse than the first cryptocurrency, which led to an increase in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.4%, to 40.3%. The index of fear and greed turned back again, losing 5 points to 25 and remaining in a state of "extreme fear".
Swaps: FX Swap vs. Cross-Currency Swaps

Swaps: FX Swap vs. Cross-Currency Swaps

Purple Trading Purple Trading 23.02.2022 11:09
~/getmedia/fbdf02b1-4fa2-42af-bbad-7f789e463bc0/P-swapy.png Swaps: FX Swap vs. Cross-Currency Swaps Swaps are derivative contracts serving for the purpose of exchanging financial instruments. through which two parties exchange financial instruments. Such instruments can comprise of different values, however, the mostly popular is the exchange of cash when both parties agree on certain notional principal. In practice, banks do not change the principal. Each of the cash flows has a so-called swap leg. Often, one leg comprises of a fixed cash flows, while the other leg is somehow variable, therefore it’s moving according to some interest rate, fx rate or any other indices, etc. Interest rate swaps (IRS) This is the most frequently used swap type on the interbank market. It’s not a business of any retail traders, nor they can’t be found on any exchanges. This is a derivative for an over-the-counter market (OTC), where banks (or any other financial institutions) exchange currencies.   Calculation of an IRS: Bank A has issued a 5-yr bond with a variable annual interest rate according to the LIBOR rate + 1.3% (130 basis points). Bank A makes an agreement with the Bank B, expressing its will to pay LIBOR + 1.3% for $1 million for 5 years to the Bank A. In exchange, Bank A pays the fixed annual rate of 5% on a notional value of $1 million for the same 5 years. Let’s imagine the LIBOR stays at 1.5%. In the event the rate rises over the next 5 years, Bank A benefits from such deal. In the event LIBOR rises 0.75% p.a., Bank A pays $215,000 to bond holders Year 2 = 1.5% + 0.75% = 2.25% Year 3 = 2.25% + 0.75% = 3.0% Year 4 = 3.0% + 0.75% = 3.75% Year 5 = 3.75% + 0.75% = 4.5% $215,000 = $1,000,000 x [(5 x 0.013) + 0.015 + 0.0225 + 0.03 + 0.0375 + 0.045] This means that the Bank A pays $75,000 more to its bond holders as if the rate stayed the same (so it would pay only $140,000 if LIBOR had remained unchanged at 1.5%: 140 000 $ = 1 000 000 $ x 5 x (0,013 + 0,015) Bank A pays Bank B $250,000: 250 000 $ = 1 000 000 $ x 5 x 0,05 Bank A receives $215,000 from the Bank B. Therefore, its net loss on the swap comes to $250,000 - $215,000 = $35,000. FX swaps An FX swap is another kind of agreement between two banks, exchanging one currency for another (so the EU-based Bank A lends EUR to the Bank B, while the U.S.-based Bank B lends U.S. dollars to the Bank A). In this case, the collateral for meeting its obligation is the amount to be repaid by one party to another. Such repayment depends on the exchange rate, so the development is clear since the beginning. According to the most frequent situation for FX swaps, the picture from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) depicts the exchange of EUR for USD through swap. The Bank A borrows USD (X·S USD) from the Bank B while lending the EUR (X EUR) to the Bank B (S means the FX spot rate). After the expiration (if not prolonged), the Bank A is obliged to return USD (X·F USD) to the Bank B, while the Bank B must return EUR (X EUR) to the Bank A (F means the FX forward rate since the start).   FX swaps are popular on the interbank market as they allow the banks to reach to foreign currencies easily (could apply to exporting/importing companies as well). Thanks to its popularity on the OTC market, their maturities have been often prolonged for more than 1 year, however the banks are always looking for further possibilities and derivatives as they need foreign cash flows as well. Good example is the swaption (option giving the right to the user to open a swap at certain time for the underlying asset). Fig. 1: System of FX swaps – source: BIS Cross-Currency Swaps Cross-currency swaps are used less frequently, however, they play an important role on the interbank OTC market. Here, the banks borrow on currency, while lending another currency at the same time to the bank they borrowed from. The system is little upgraded from the FX swaps, albeit many traders tend to mix these two swap types. Here, the EU-based Bank A borrows USD (X·S USD) from the Bank B, while providing it EUR (X EUR) as in case of FX swaps. Nevertheless, here the Bank A receives EUR 3M Libor+ α from the Bank B, while the Bank A pays USD 3M Libor to the Bank B every quarter (3M or Q). The α is the price of the basis swap, agreed between the parties at the beginning. After the expiry date, the Bank A is obliged to return USD (X·S USD) to the Bank B, where S is the spot rate at the conclusion of this agreement. At the same time, the Bank B must return EUR (X EUR) to the Bank A. Cross-currency swaps serve for the same purpose on the interbank market, however, the banks/institutions tend to take the rates (their change) into account, mainly during the volatile periods of time. Here, due to their nature or rate change taken into account, the maturity is much longer as in case of the FX swaps as the change of rates comes much slower as in case of the exchange rate. They are often concluded from 1 to 30 years in maturity. Fig. 2: System of cross-currency swaps – source: BIS
How the Russia-Ukraine crisis has reflected on the financial market so far

How the Russia-Ukraine crisis has reflected on the financial market so far

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 23.02.2022 12:11
Over the last several weeks, traders would have heard of and watched the unfolding Ukraine crisis. Russia built up a mass of troops and military hardware on the border, which started sending shockwaves through the markets that an invasion and new European conflict could be developing. This is not the first time we have seen Russian aggression towards Ukraine. In 2014 we all watched as Russia annexed Crimea after Moscow said it supported the liberty and backing the people’s free will as they wanted to rejoin Russia and break away from Ukraine. During this round, the situation felt and looked different due to the sheer build-up of the Russian military. Ukraine requesting to join NATO and the possibility of U.S./NАТО bases being built in Ukraine look like a flashpoint for the Russian side. Despite talks and negotiations, Russia continued to amass military close to the border, feeding invasion fears. Reasons continued to put out by the Kremlin, scheduled military exercises with Belarus. These failed to settle nerves as Western leaders continued to put forward prosed crippling sanctions that would be imposed if Russia invaded. The worst seemed possible late last week, and reports emerged of explosions and fighting in the two eastern parts of Ukraine. Russian tank numbers also increased, and we all thought it was just a matter of when we would see a Russian invasion. Biden offered Putin a summit only if he hadn’t invaded at the final hour. This is off the table now that Russia has once again pulled off another Crimea to a degree. Yesterday we heard that the two Eastern areas of Ukraine had voiced their right to become independent. The Kremlin supported them immediately and advised it had crossed the border to support a peaceful transition with a peacekeeping mission. In other words, a proxy invasion. President Biden has called this an invasion of Ukraine and announced sweeping sanctions on the Russian bank VEB and its military bank and cuts them out of any USD transactions. Individual sanctions, Biden said the adult children and members of Putin’s inner circle “share the corrupt gains of the Kremlin’s policies, and so they ought to share in the pain as well.” The sanctions on Russia’s sovereign debt expand upon Biden’s existing restrictions set in 2021 and prohibit American banks from trading shares in and or lending to several significant Russian sovereign debt funds. Prime Minister Johnson also made good on his threat of sanctions. The first tranche of sanctions would target Rossiya, IS Bank, General Bank, Promsvyazbank and the Black Sea Bank. The new sanctions also include three “very high net worth” individuals: Gennady Timchenko, Boris Rotenberg and Igor Rotenberg. Germany has halted approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline due to Russia’s actions, and the EU has agreed on sanctions to hurt Russia. The crisis had a significant impact on the markets. As you would expect, we have seen plenty of movement away from risk markets, but it hasn’t been totally black and white. Energy, oil has been driven higher during the crisis, and we’ve watched USOUSD (WTI) jump by 28% in the last three months. Price trading at $96 this week. Spot gas surged this week, hitting 6.70 but has pulled back to 4.31. Russia is a major energy supplier to Europe. This is a major card they hold. Traders will be watching oil and gas as any new aggression could cause oil to spike. We could even see $100 or higher reached again. The markets are a funny beast, and if they see the situation as calm, don’t be surprised if we continue to see price pullback. Sky-high oil prices could impact the FED. Crude prices can drive up inflation and slow down the global economy. A surge in oil could cause the Fed to rethink its pace of hiking due to growth concerns. FX, the USD and JPY have seen phases of demand during the crisis, but they have been far from dominant. Looking at this month’s trade so far, we can see that mainly the EUR has been most affected with falls to the two safe-havens. The GBP has been flat, and the AUD has been stronger. The AUD rallied yesterday as the situation developed and so far looks to be ignoring the situation. If we had seen an all-out invasion and this could still be a possibility, we would expect a traditional reaction on FX with the USD and JPY rallying on safe-haven demand. Gold has seen strong demand during the crisis. Traders jumping back into the metal as it moves back to a safe haven. This is not strange. Gold has always had multiple functions in the market, and in times of war or crisis, traders can look to it over fiat. Looking at the current month on the monthly chart, we can see this clearly in action as price has jumped by over 5%. The weekly shows a triangle breakout, but we will need to watch ongoing developments to see if buyer momentum remains. The Ukrainian crisis has hit stock indexes that could have been seen as overvalued. The Dax, in particular, has been hit hard. U.S. and Asian indexes haven’t been spared with heavy selling over the last two weeks. Markets fought back yesterday after the SP500 touched correction territory, and as mentioned above, traders will be focusing on the escalation of the crisis. If the situation intensifies, we would be looking for further lows, and if things continue to calm down, we could see counter-rallies and ranges set up. Cryptocurrencies have traded mainly lower during the crisis. Clearly, we can see at this point that they’re viewed as risk assets and are acting accordingly. It hasn’t been all one-way traffic, Kyber has added 38% YTD and so far has resisted the falls we have seen on the top 10 and top 25 indexes. Coins have been firmer since Tuesday’s updates, following other risk markets higher. Polkadot, Cardando were two top ten coins that hit new lows for 2022 before value buying returned this week. Again, we see the fortunes of most coins tied to risk demand. If things escalate, we will be looking for further declines across the top 10 and 25. The post How the Russia-Ukraine crisis has reflected on the financial market so far appeared first on Eightcap.
Decentralized Autonomous Organisation - Another Addition To Our Personal Dictionaries

Cryptocurrency Update: Will Bitcoin (BTC) Become A Legal Means Of Payment In Mexico?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 24.02.2022 08:57
Bitcoin was down 1% on Wednesday, ending the day near $37,600, but it is losing another 7% on Thursday morning, trading below $35,000. Ethereum has lost 12% to $2,340 in the last 24 hours. Leading altcoins show a proportionate decline. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, decreased by 8.4% over the day, to $1.57 trillion. The index of fear and greed of the crypto market fell by 2 points to 23, but being updated once a day, it clearly does not take into account the latest dramatic movements. The aggravation of tension around Ukraine exerted pressure on risky assets. There are growing risks of escalation associated with the introduction of Russian troops into Donbass. In such a situation, risky assets may continue to decline further. At the moment, we see that cryptocurrencies are selling stronger than developed world stocks (although not as extreme as Russian ones), confirming the risky nature of these assets and how they are not a replacement for gold. According to Glassnode, the wallets of long-term investors (hodlers) hold record volumes of BTC (76.5%). The volume of bitcoins, which have been without movement for more than 10 years, is also growing (12.6%). Thus, almost 90% of all currently available coins are out of the market. Now another country besides El Salvador may accept bitcoin as a means of payment. Senator Indira Kempis is developing a bill on cryptocurrencies and intends to convince the Mexican government to follow the "Salvadorian scenario" by recognizing BTC as a means of payment. Former SEC official Joseph Hall called the department's chances of losing the lawsuit against Ripple high. The regulator accuses the company of selling unregistered securities under the guise of XRP tokens.
Russian Invasion: Ukraine's government could collapse sooner, markets would see relief rally

Russian Invasion: Ukraine's government could collapse sooner, markets would see relief rally

FXStreet News FXStreet News 24.02.2022 16:16
Russia is attacking Ukraine on multiple fronts, including in Kyiv. A collapse of the Ukrainian government could allow Putin to order a retreat. The West's sanctions may keep oil prices bid, but markets could recover from the current downfall.The Russian army is accelerating its offense in Ukraine – and undoubtedly moving faster than Western diplomats, scrambling to agree on sanctions. Markets have woken up to a dark day of war and have reacted rapidly. However, a quick end to major hostilities could trigger a relief rally. At least a partial one.Reports from Kyiv show various plumes of smoke from inside and outside the city and Russian helicopters coming from Belarus. The conflict is far more than a "peacekeeping mission" in Ukraine's east.Events are moving fast and there is massive disinformation at times of war. Ukraine declared martial law and seems determined to fight back and halt the advance of Russian troops – but it could be beyond them. Some 190,000 troops – some rebels and mostly Russians – are on the move, attacking Ukraine on various fronts. Russian President Vladimir Putin's aim is to bring about the collapse of the government in Kyiv, which leans toward NATO and the EU. Overwhelmed by Russian firepower, cyberattacks, and propaganda, leaders in Ukraine could capitulate – at least to prevent further bloodshed. If Putin manages to defenestrate the Ukrainian government and install his puppets, he could announce "Mission Accomplished" and move some of the troops back home. While a long-term insurgency would follow, the world could move away from focusing on the conflict. If sanctions remain tame and threats on NATO countries subside, there could be a relief rally. Stocks and risk currencies would have room to rise, while gold – which has benefited from speculation and exuberance – would fall. The safe-haven yen, which is more sensitive to geopolitics than to other worries, would retreat. Oil would depend on European sanctions – would the West disconnect from Russia? In that case, petrol prices would surge. However, if energy is excluded, there is room for a gradual decline.
Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Investors fleeing cryptocurrencies as residents flee Kyiv

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Investors fleeing cryptocurrencies as residents flee Kyiv

FXStreet News FXStreet News 24.02.2022 16:16
Bitcoin price drops 7% on geopolitical news but is close to offering a nice entry-level. Ethereum price deteriorates 10% for the day and still has 7% to go before some solid support is present. XRP price sees early price bounce-off but might be too soon as better entry levels are present further down the line. Cryptocurrencies are waking up to a shocker this morning as the whole Eastern border of Ukraine is under siege of missile attacks by Russia and Belarus. This afternoon, NATO and the EU are scrambling for emergency meetings to further retaliate with sanctions cutting off Russia entirely from the financial system. In the meantime, investors are hoarding cash and pulling out their money into safe havens, but in the process, offering some lovely entry levels for the longer term. Bitcoin price breaks below $36,709 and looks to test support at $32,650, below $33,000 The Bitcoin (BTC) price got slaughtered this morning as the Russian offensive started in early trading hours, shedding 7% of its market value. As it is looking for support, it will be vital for market participants to await the right time to execute any trades. It is too late now for both bears and bulls to get in as markets will or could go either way, and both parties are better off waiting for the right entry-level. BTC price will favour bulls with an entry below the $34,000 key-level as above, for now, no actual entry points are offered. At $32,650, a solid entry-level is offered, going back to June 25. With this, BTC price would need to shed another 5% on top of the 7% it has already lost in early morning trading. Expect this to unfold once the US sessions kicks in and further deterioration of asset prices happens across the board. BTC/USD daily chart Should Putin step up military action, expect to see further deterioration of price action in several asset classes, certainly when civilian casualties are reported. Expect $32,650 to be breached and see BTC further deepen its losses towards $31,322. Following that, the famous distribution zone will have been entered, and short-term bulls and long-term investors will be buying up bits and pieces of the price action for a rebound once the situation stabilises. Ethereum bulls should open up their wallets as price action is set to offer some great entry points Ethereum (ETH) price is nearing some interesting levels as price action dips to the downside in an accelerated move as Russian troops are attacking several important cities in Ukraine. Whilst Europe tries to deal with the situation, more reports have come in of several critical Ukrainian military installations being fired upon by missiles and mortars. Putin proclaimed conducting a military surgical operation to demilitarise the country and succeed. ETH price gets under pressure as investors hoard cash and kick out any risky asset in the process, as Ethereum already lost 10% in early morning trading. Expect more downside to come towards $2,148, losing 18% of its value in the process. At the same time, this is an excellent window of opportunity for investors to buy ETH coins at a very lucrative discount once the situation stabilises. ETH/USD daily chart As this story develops further into the trading day, expect to see a deterioration of ETH price action towards $1,928 or even $1,688 – breaching $2,000, should more reports come in from Russian troops entering mainland Ukraine and taking over control of key cities. That would mean that ETH is set to lose another 17% to 25% in the process as the US session will be expected to deepen the loss intraday. In the meantime, Ethereum price action has entered a distribution zone, offering an excellent opportunity for investors to start building a stake in for any upside potential to come. XRP price is at risk of losing another 25% as first support is being tested Ripple's (XRP) price sees an initial bounce off the $0.6264 level this morning as Europe awakes to some severe military threats spilling over into global markets with risk assets being slashed across the board. XRP price action already shredded 10% at the time of writing and is seen bouncing off technically and recovering back to more moderate levels – but still holding heavy losses. As the situation further develops, expect cryptocurrencies to react instantly in both directions as more headlines and news hit the wires today. Expect $0.6264 not to withstand further selling pressure since the situation remains fragile. As possible combat headlines start to accelerate, expect to see another dip lower in XRP to $0.5852 or even $0.5231, adding another 6% to 16% of losses to the price action. With this, the Relative Strength Index will be diving deeply into oversold territory, making this area an excellent entry level for investors going long once the situation dies down and the market falls back to a more normal level. XRP/USD daily chart In the worst case, XRP could dip below $0.50 and tick $0.48 in the process, the lowest level since June 2021. Depending on the situation expect to see bulls either waiting and holding, or taking the bounce off the historic $0.48 level and the monthly S1 support level, which they may use as a point of entry for going long if the situation calms down in the near future.
Food prices are breaking multi-year highs, and the CBs are helpless

Food prices are breaking multi-year highs, and the CBs are helpless

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.02.2022 10:40
Wheat futures on the CBOE are up 16% since the start of the week, the biggest rally since the poor harvest in 2012. At one point yesterday, the weekly rise was close to 20%. The price level was the highest since April 2008, as traders anxiously assessed the impact of the conflict between two of the world’s biggest exporters of wheat, corn, and other agricultural products. The FAO’s Food Price Index in January was near its 2011 peak (in nominal terms) and one step below its 1974 peak - a time of stagflation and the aftermath of the oil crisis. And the latest spike in grains prices suggests that these highs will already be surpassed in February. It means that people will spend more on food and less on durable goods and services, worsening living standards. Such price hikes are an additional headache for central banks around the world. They may find themselves forced to turn a blind eye to inflation so as not to put the economy and consumer demand under additional stress. But this is terrible news for currencies. Forced inflation tolerance by the Central Bank will depreciate the value of money and suppress the exchange rate. This promises to be a problem for the euro and the British pound. High inflation may no longer be a reason to buy the euro and the pound against the dollar on the forex market, as it would not increase the chances of a tightening of the central bank policy in the coming months. There could also be a reverse reaction when currencies come under pressure as investors sell off local bonds amid falling real yields.
COT Forex Speculators pushed their Euro Currency bullish bets to 32-week high

COT Forex Speculators pushed their Euro Currency bullish bets to 32-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 26.02.2022 20:04
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further rise in bullish bets in the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculators raised their bullish bets for a third straight week this week and for the ninth time in the past ten weeks. Over this ten-week time-frame, Euro bets have gained by a total of +71,185 contracts, going from -10,162 net positions on December 12th to a total of +59,306 net positions through this Tuesday the 22nd of February (please note that this is a couple days before the Russian invasion of Ukraine). Overall, the current Euro standing is at the most bullish level of the past thirty-two weeks, dating back to July 13th when the net position was at +59,713 contracts. Joining the Euro (11,725 contracts) with positive speculator changes this week were the yen (2,975 contracts), Brazil real (685 contracts), US Dollar Index (698 contracts), Australian dollar (2,614 contracts), Russian ruble (3,353 contracts) and the Mexican peso (7,851 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Swiss franc (-1,272 contracts), British pound sterling (-8,046 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,218 contracts), Canadian dollar (-2,917 contracts) and Bitcoin (-68 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,922 78 36,084 88 -41,368 6 5,284 74 EUR 696,682 82 59,306 53 -98,050 48 38,744 39 GBP 188,443 31 -5,809 70 10,070 36 -4,261 47 JPY 194,169 51 -63,187 28 82,480 77 -19,293 8 CHF 47,339 24 -10,987 51 19,110 52 -8,123 39 CAD 140,305 24 9,253 57 -14,143 47 4,890 40 AUD 192,579 77 -84,080 7 96,072 91 -11,992 23 NZD 56,636 56 -11,551 52 13,908 52 -2,357 25 MXN 171,299 36 16,825 35 -21,038 64 4,213 61 RUB 38,673 34 19,517 60 -20,053 40 536 49 BRL 94,577 100 24,445 100 -27,081 0 2,636 97 Bitcoin 11,007 59 -283 91 -256 0 539 25   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 36,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,386 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.6 5.0 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.9 80.3 3.1 – Net Position: 36,084 -41,368 5,284 – Gross Longs: 43,726 2,742 6,969 – Gross Shorts: 7,642 44,110 1,685 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.7 to 1 0.1 to 1 4.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.0 5.9 74.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.1 4.6 -10.6   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 59,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,725 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,581 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.7 54.5 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.2 68.6 7.3 – Net Position: 59,306 -98,050 38,744 – Gross Longs: 214,195 379,583 89,334 – Gross Shorts: 154,889 477,633 50,590 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.2 48.0 38.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.4 -18.3 18.8   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,809 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,046 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,237 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.4 61.8 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.5 56.4 15.1 – Net Position: -5,809 10,070 -4,261 – Gross Longs: 42,249 116,372 24,154 – Gross Shorts: 48,058 106,302 28,415 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.8 35.6 46.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.8 -16.5 9.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -63,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,162 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.7 83.5 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.2 41.0 19.1 – Net Position: -63,187 82,480 -19,293 – Gross Longs: 10,976 162,044 17,881 – Gross Shorts: 74,163 79,564 37,174 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.1 77.2 8.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.4 -12.8 3.4   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,272 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,715 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.0 71.2 20.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.2 30.9 37.6 – Net Position: -10,987 19,110 -8,123 – Gross Longs: 3,785 33,718 9,691 – Gross Shorts: 14,772 14,608 17,814 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.8 52.3 39.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.8 4.0 -0.5   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 9,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,917 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,170 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.0 41.6 21.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.4 51.7 18.1 – Net Position: 9,253 -14,143 4,890 – Gross Longs: 47,661 58,345 30,327 – Gross Shorts: 38,408 72,488 25,437 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.6 47.3 39.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.1 -11.2 -1.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -84,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,694 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.0 81.7 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.7 31.9 15.8 – Net Position: -84,080 96,072 -11,992 – Gross Longs: 11,553 157,416 18,459 – Gross Shorts: 95,633 61,344 30,451 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.9 90.6 23.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.9 -5.6 0.3   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,551 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,333 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.6 62.6 4.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.0 38.1 8.8 – Net Position: -11,551 13,908 -2,357 – Gross Longs: 17,343 35,481 2,608 – Gross Shorts: 28,894 21,573 4,965 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 51.8 24.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.9 5.6 -7.5   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,825 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,974 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.5 53.0 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.7 65.3 1.7 – Net Position: 16,825 -21,038 4,213 – Gross Longs: 72,846 90,784 7,091 – Gross Shorts: 56,021 111,822 2,878 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.5 64.0 60.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.1 -9.3 4.2   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 24,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,760 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 55.0 40.2 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 68.9 2.0 – Net Position: 24,445 -27,081 2,636 – Gross Longs: 51,990 38,039 4,541 – Gross Shorts: 27,545 65,120 1,905 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 97.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 46.6 -49.2 31.8   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 19,517 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,164 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 58.5 35.9 5.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.0 87.8 4.2 – Net Position: 19,517 -20,053 536 – Gross Longs: 22,625 13,895 2,152 – Gross Shorts: 3,108 33,948 1,616 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.3 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.6 39.6 49.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 23.4 -20.6 -25.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -68 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -215 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.2 2.9 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 79.8 5.3 7.3 – Net Position: -283 -256 539 – Gross Longs: 8,501 322 1,338 – Gross Shorts: 8,784 578 799 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.7 19.3 25.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.1 -6.1 -0.5   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
BRENT Nears $95, SWIFT Had Been Blocked, XAU And USD Are Likely To Stand Strong Amid Tensions

BRENT Nears $95, SWIFT Had Been Blocked, XAU And USD Are Likely To Stand Strong Amid Tensions

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 28.02.2022 13:53
While stocks saw some signs of recovery towards the end of last week with Asian, European and US markets recovering some of their losses following the invasion of Ukraine from Russia, stock prices could have a very difficult week ahead as tensions escalate and more sanctions continue to be announced. Over the weekend, the European union announced a variety of sanctions on Russia including limiting it’s access to EU airspace and prohibiting certain banks from utilizing the SWIFT banking system, a move which could have catastrophic effects on the russian economy and was by some considered to be on the most potentially effective deterrents. Investors are taking that into consideration and while the war for Ukraine rages on, this week is set to be one of the most volatile across markets with the prices of stocks and commodities being extremely susceptible to any kind of sanction and geopolitical instability. If the situation continues to escalate, risky assets like stocks and crypto currencies could be seeing another week of losses while investors continue to rush to safe havens like gold and the USD which benefited greatly last week from the shocking turn of events. Oil prices remain under pressure after Brent retreats from $100 While oil prices managed to decline as recent news emerged of potential talks between Russia and Ukraine to deescalate the situation after markets panicked following the invasion, the situation remains extremely uncertain. Brent is trading around the $95 area after pulling back from the multi-year high reached as supply concerns reached critical levels following the invasion of Ukraine which sparked a series of sanctions from western countries. Due to the fact that the Russian economy is so heavily reliant on its energy exports, much of which goes to Europe, those fears could persist throughout the week as a lack of resolution could only serve to further destabilize the situation. While there are potential alternatives available to European economies, many of them are costly and impractical for the time being and as it appears that at this point almost nothing is off the table, it could lead oil prices to retest those highs from 2014 and potentially even break past them.  
What's The Future Of Bitcoin (BTC) Price In Times Of Sanctions?

What's The Future Of Bitcoin (BTC) Price In Times Of Sanctions?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 28.02.2022 16:02
Bitcoin price is behaving very well this stormy Monday morning as global markets are under pressure from sanctions against Russia. BTC sees elevated interest as people in Russia dive into Bitcoin as an alternative method of payment. Expect this interest to add to more popularity for Bitcoin as long as the current sanctions are imposed on Russia and its ruble. Bitcoin (BTC) is holding it together all-in-all quite well as price action dipped lower over the weekend but is back up for the day as Bitcoin sees an uptick in demand at the start of the week. That demand comes from Russian people using Bitcoin as an alternative method of payment as the local currency has devalued considerably, and several sanctions are making it impossible to use FX alternatives. With this renewed interest, expect to see BTC price action rise towards $39,780, holding a 10% profit potential. Bitcoin regains the needed attention it deserves Over the weekend, price action got rejected to the downside and saw a 7% devaluation. Yet with the introduction of several sanctions onRussia, significant demand is being seen for Bitcoin as Russians seek alternative payment methods as their own currency has devalued sharply by 20% on Monday morning, and foreign currencies are forbidden as a form of payment. This is the perfect background for Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies to get renewed positive attention. Several Russians will be opening a crypto wallet and buying into Bitcoin price action, which could propel price action towards $39,780 in the first phase.once Bitcoin becomes the standard form of payment in Russia, and as the Relative Strength Index still has plenty of room to go, expect to see a further move to the upside, hitting $41,756 in the near term. BTC/USD daily chart Depending on the current peace talks underway this afternoon between Russia and Ukraine, expect to see a possible dip back towards $38,073 or even $36,709 as the supportive baseline in these past few days. Should the situation deteriorate again and see renewed attacks – and even the use of Russian nuclear weapons – expect to see a sharp nosedive move towards $32,650, nearing the distribution zone from a few months ago. With that move, the Relative Strength Index will have entered the oversold area, however, suggesting an increased likelihood of an eventual recovery.
Crypto Prices Rise: On Monday BTC Added 10.6%, Ether (ETH) Increased By 7.9%, XRP Gained 6.3%, Terra (LUNA) Added 15.3%

Crypto Prices Rise: On Monday BTC Added 10.6%, Ether (ETH) Increased By 7.9%, XRP Gained 6.3%, Terra (LUNA) Added 15.3%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 01.03.2022 08:31
Bitcoin made a powerful leap up after assurances from the owners of the largest crypto exchanges, Binance, Kraken, KuCoin and AAX, that they do not intend to block the funds of individual Russians. However, the head of Kraken warned that they would abide by the regulator's decision if it comes.Overnight, the United States noted that they would stop attempts to use cryptocurrencies to circumvent personal sanctions. So, retail clients of large crypto exchanges are not yet afraid for their funds. This probably explains the latest growth momentum.Technically, Bitcoin broke through the upper limit of the four-month descending channel at the close of the month. Moderate optimism of Asian and US indices is also on the side of buyers.February was confirmed to be a growing month for bitcoin. However, March is not so favourable. Over the past 11 years, BTC ended this month with growth only in two cases.Disabling Russia from SWIFT will have a positive impact on the cryptocurrency market, says Jiang Zhuer, CEO of the BTC.TOP pool. In his opinion, Russia can use various methods to circumvent restrictions, including digital assets, to make payments. Bank of America does not see the prerequisites for a large-scale crypto winter, as evidenced by the dynamics of the movement of cryptocurrencies between private and exchange wallets. The level of acceptance of crypto assets by users is also growing, as well as the activity of developers.Bitcoin jumped 10.8% on Monday to $41,600, the highest gain in five months. On Tuesday morning, the momentum continued with a jump to $44,000 at the start of the day. At the time of writing, prices have stabilized around $43,200. Ethereum added 7.9%, while other top-ten altcoins rose from 6.3% (XRP) to 15.3 % (Terra).The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, grew by 11% over the day, to $1.9 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index has risen to 43% due to the smaller strengthening of altcoins.The crypto-currency fear and greed index soared 31 points to 51 on the day, moving out of fear into neutral territory.Although Bitcoin showed negative dynamics for most of the month, the shock growth at the end of it allowed BTC to end February with strengthening (+8.6%) after three months of decline.
Bitcoin (BTC) To US Dollar (USD) And BTCUSD/XAUUSD Shown In The Charts

Bitcoin (BTC) To US Dollar (USD) And BTCUSD/XAUUSD Shown In The Charts

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 01.03.2022 12:27
Bitcoin, buy the news   With news, volatility is typically increasing, and a larger volume of transactions is at play. For amateurs, data evaluation in a turmoiled market environment generally results in procrastination of execution, meaning no trading or chasing trades. Professionals find necessary liquidity to exit a trade or use volatility to fade moves on less risk for entries. Last week’s invasion of Ukraine was no different. Only those prepared with a plan were able to position themselves in bitcoin. Bitcoin, daily chart, the giveaway: Crypto markets, daily charts as of February 28th, 2022. A giveaway was a widespread larger supply zone throughout the crypto sector (green horizontal lines on the daily charts above), and preset buy entries in the crypto space were getting triggered. Inter-market relationships stack the odds of placing a successful trade.   Bitcoin, weekly chart, entry target zone within reach: Bitcoin, weekly chart as of February 28th, 2022. With our entry target range nearly reached (see our previous chart book release), we were ready to act, knowing a possible larger time frame tuning point was a possibility. You might argue that the price has not penetrated the entry zone. Still, at a closer look, you will identify that due to exuberant volume on the surprise news day, the supply zone values had changed to provide significant support right at the rim of our initially planned zone. Charts need to be consistently updated to stay accurate! Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, weekly chart, another edge stacked: Bitcoin versus Gold in USD, weekly chart as of March 1st, 2022. Precisely on the day in question, we also got a hedge rotational “buy signal” for bitcoin versus gold on the weekly chart. Consequently, this signal provided another inter-market relationship edge that supported our decision-making for aggressive entry. What we can see on the chart above that compares bitcoin with gold is that since institutional money has become a massive part of bitcoin holdings, these more significant funds rotate their money in and out between gold and bitcoin. Following the yellow line, one can see prices being high to buy bitcoin with gold at double top and acquiring bitcoin at a double bottom is a way to take advantage of cheaper bitcoin prices in relationship to gold. For us, a good reason to assume that gold holders might switch to bitcoin for the next foreseeable timeframe, to hedge their wealth preservation portfolios. Bitcoin, daily chart, profits booked and room to go: Bitcoin, weekly chart as of March 1st, 2022. The weekly chart above shows four more reloads within the last five days. All trades have been risk mitigated with our quad exit strategy. Consequently, the remaining position was market money at no risk to us. We posted daily calls to prepare interested parties for possible reentries. Prices have already advanced by nearly 30% from the lows. This preparedness and merely following rules allow ending up being positioned and not dependent on whether a turning point matures. Even in a negative outcome, profits have been made. With a bit of luck, these remainder positions can go a long way and provide substantial additional profits. In addition, one is positioned early before a trend is even established. Bitcoin, buy the news: We must confront opinion-forming debates led by ego (the need to be right). We use reconditioning behavior to achieve best results. The goal in mind is to “erase” intuitive responses and an execution time delay leading to sub-par entry timing. Consequently, consistent extracting of profits from the market is possible. At Midas Touch, we have made it our business to share our entry and exit timing and their underlying principles in our free Telegram channel to empower our clients and followers to become successful self-directed investors.   Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 1st, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, S&P 500, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Will Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) Be Affected By Russian Economics?

Will Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) Be Affected By Russian Economics?

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 01.03.2022 15:52
  Sanctions, terminated contracts, and a plummeting currency – Russia is facing the financial crisis specter. Can gold also be affected? In the medium term, even painfully.  While gold continues to ride the bullish wave of geopolitical tensions, confusion has arisen over whether Russia’s financial woes will support or hurt the yellow metal. For context, I wrote on Feb. 28: Even if the recent escalation uplifts gold in the short term, the fundamental implications of Russia’s financial plight support lower gold prices over the medium term.  Please see below: To explain, with Russia essentially blacklisted from many influential FX counterparties, the Russian ruble relative to the U.S. dollar was exchanged for a roughly 50% discount on Feb. 27. As a result, Russian's purchasing power is nearly half of what it was before Sunday's developments. Furthermore, if you analyze the chart above, you can see that euros and U.S. dollars made up a large portion of Russia's monetary base in 2013 (the green bars on the left). Conversely, those holdings dropped dramatically in 2021 (the blue bars on the left).  In addition, if you focus your attention on the column labeled "Gold," you can see that FX has been swapped for gold, and the yellow metal accounts for roughly 23% of Russia's monetary base. Now, with the impaired state of the ruble offering little financial reprieve, Russia may have to sell its gold reserves to alleviate the pressure from NATO's economic sanctions.  As a result, while war is often bullish for gold, the fundamental implications of currency devaluation mean that gold is Russia's only worthwhile asset outside of oil. Thus, with bank runs already unfolding in the region, the yellow metal could be collateral damage. To that point, the USD/RUB closed at roughly 105 on Feb. 28. As a result, it costs 105 Russian rubles to obtain one U.S. dollar. With the spot gold price at around $1,900 per ounce, it costs roughly 199,500 Russian rubles to purchase an ounce of gold. In stark contrast, the USD/RUB closed at approximately 75 on Feb. 16, which means that less than two weeks ago, it cost 142,500 Russian rubles to purchase an ounce of gold at the current price. As such, in currency-adjusted terms, the cost of an ounce of gold in Russia has increased by roughly 40% in recent days. However, after Bloomberg posted an article on Feb. 27 titled “Bank of Russia Resumes Gold Buying After Two-Year Pause,” the revelation may have caused some anxiety about our short position (as a reminder, it’s not in gold, but in junior mining stocks). For context, an excerpt from the article read: “The central bank will begin buying gold again on the domestic precious metals market, it said in a statement. The move comes after the monetary authority and several of the country’s commercial banks were sanctioned in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.” As a result, if Russia goes on a shopping spree for bullion, could the price skyrocket? Well, the reality is that the fundamentals don’t support the sentiment. As mentioned, the USD/RUB has surged in recent days, and the sharp decline in the value of the Russian currency is extremely bearish for the Russian economy. Please see below: Furthermore, while Russia may want to increase its gold reserves, it’s essential to focus on what Russia does and not what it says. For example, the Russian central bank increased its overnight lending rate from 9.5% to 20% on Feb. 28. While U.S. investors fret over a 25 basis point hike from the Fed (which, as mentioned previously, should occur in March), Russia had to increase interest rates by 10.5% to help stop the ruble’s bleeding.  Please see below: Source: Reuters For context, higher interest rates encourage capital flows, and with the ruble in free-fall, Russia is hoping that investors will buy the currency, invest in Russian bonds, and potentially earn a 20% return. Moreover, if the currency rallies during the holding period, the carry trade would be highly lucrative for an institution willing to incur the risk. However, the story is only sanguine in theory. In reality, though, crippling sanctions from NATO and private companies divesting their Russian assets mean that buying the ruble and other Russian securities requires a gambler’s mentality. For example, Viraj Patel, FX and Macro Strategist at Vanda Research, summed up the dynamic in a few simple words on Feb. 28: Source: Viraj Patel Twitter Thus, while Russia may claim it's buying gold, and who knows, maybe it will, the financial destruction plaguing the region will likely make Russia a net-seller over the medium term. To that point, if we circle back to the Bloomberg article referenced above, Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP SA, said in the same piece that investors would interpret the actions as short-term bullish.  However, aligning with our expectations, she noted that investors have misjudged the medium-term impact of Russia's currency crisis.  Please see below: Source: Bloomberg As a result, that’s why I wrote on Feb. 28 that while volatility may be the name of the game this week as investors struggle to digest the implications, the geopolitical risk premium that often supports gold may prove counterintuitive this time around. Furthermore, we shouldn't ignore the potential impact on the USD Index. For example, while the dollar basket defied expectations and rose materially in 2021, the momentum continued in 2022. However, after a sharp rally in January, investors repositioned their bets, and euro longs were in style once again. However, with the risk-on trade now disrupted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, more downside for the euro implies more upside for the USD Index. Please see below: Source: Institute of International Finance (IIF)/Robin Brooks To explain, the color blocks above track the non-commercial (speculative) futures positioning for various currencies versus the U.S. dollar, while the black line above tracks the consolidated total. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the black line has moved higher recently, which signals fewer U.S. dollar long positions.   More importantly, though, if you focus your attention on the light blue blocks on the right side of the chart, you can see that speculative euro longs have increased and remain in positive territory. However, with the economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict much more troublesome for the Eurozone than the U.S., speculative EUR/USD positioning still has plenty of room to move lower. To that point, Mark Sobel, Senior Advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), wrote on Feb. 28 that “the overall impact of Russia’s actions on the U.S. economy may not be significant, assuming oil prices don’t soar, though that remains a significant risk.” “The challenges for the ECB will be much greater in its debates over balancing the stagflationary consequences of the Russian invasion. Europe is a large net energy importer and remains dependent on Russia for oil and natural gas.” As a result: “European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will feel the strain more than Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Higher oil prices will boost inflation, weaken growth prospects and stoke stagflation fears.” Furthermore, if you analyze the right side of the chart below, you can see that Russia’s monetary base includes more euros (the light blue line) than U.S. dollars (the dark blue line). As a result, if Russia swaps its other FX holdings for rubles (to help stop the decline), the euro has more downside risk than the greenback. The bottom line? While Russia may put on a brave face and claim that gold purchases are on the horizon, the reality is that its materially weak financial position requires more attention to more pressing matters. With bank runs and a currency crisis already unfolding, combined with NATO sanctions and private companies divesting their Russian assets, the country’s leaders need to stem the tide before a depression unfolds. As a result, Russia’s oil revenues and the securities it can monetize are more likely to be used to support the Russian economy, rather than to buy gold. Thus, while the yellow metal has enjoyed short-term sentiment high (and so did the silver price), the fundamentals imply a much different outcome over the medium term. In conclusion, the PMs were mixed on Feb. 28, as the GDX ETF ended the session roughly flat. However, the recent rallies are far from troublesome. For example, I noted previously how gold rallied following the 2001 terrorist attacks and after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. However, those gains were short-lived, and the latter resulted in lower lows in the months that followed. As a result, while the recent volatility will likely continue, it doesn’t change the bearish medium-term thesis. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Decentralized Autonomous Organisation - Another Addition To Our Personal Dictionaries

Crypto Prices: On Tuesday Bitcoin (BTC) Added 1.9%, Ether (ETH) Gained 2.5%, Solana (SOL) Increased By 6.7%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 02.03.2022 08:44
In the middle of Tuesday, the first cryptocurrency was approaching $45K, but then fell slightly during the American session along with stock indices. BTC showed resilience despite the decline in other risky assets and the growth of the dollar. World markets were declining following the banking sector, which felt the severity of Russia's partial disconnection from Swift (by 80%). However, this situation does little harm to the demand for cryptocurrencies. On the Binance exchange, the volume of trading in ruble pairs with BTC and USDT has increased significantly. Crypto funds recorded $36 million in net asset inflows during the week, up from $239 million over the past five weeks, according to CoinShares. Institutions are also looking for alternative vehicles amid mounting military tensions and government capital controls. According to Glassnode, crypto whales have been aggressively buying bitcoin over the past few weeks, which could signal a local bottom has been reached. The last time such a situation was observed was in May last year, when, after a two-month consolidation, the market resumed growth at the end of July. Technically, Bitcoin started March with growth. Thus, BTC has risen in price by 1.9% over the day to $44,100. Ethereum has grown by 2.5%, approaching $3,000. Other leading altcoins from the top ten add with maximum momentum such as Solana (+6.7%) and Terra (+5.2%) The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, grew by 2% over the day, to $1.94 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index is hovering around 43%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index added another point to 52 moving into neutral territory.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/2/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/2/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 02.03.2022 21:33
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/2/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 698 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,377 contracts and an increase in short positions by 679 contracts. The increase in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen. The decline in total net positions occurred in the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.  Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, markets shifted into risk-off sentiment. From a currency perspective, this means that the euro, pound, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar could weaken. However, the situation is changing very quickly depending on various political statements. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators Date USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399 Feb 01, 2022 34571 29716 -23605 -79829 -11698 -60640 18264 -8239 Jan 25, 2022 36861 31560 -7763 -83273 -10773 -68273 12317 -8796 Jan 18, 2022 36434 24584 -247 -88454 -8331 -80879 7492 -10810 Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the end of this report. Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Bullish Feb 01, 2022 685431 213563 183847 29716 2479 155 1999 -1844 Weak bullish Jan 25, 2022 682952 213408 181848 31560 -8930 1507 -5469 6976 Bullish Jan 18, 2022 691882 211901 187317 24584 9589 7540 -11039 18579 Bullish         Total change 14389 9834 -43467 53301     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 59 306 contracts last week, up by 11 725 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 3,704 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 15,429 contracts. Total net positions have increased by 53,301 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to the fact that large speculators ended 43,467 short positions and addded 9,834 long positions.  This data suggests continued bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest, which fell by 5,465 contracts in the past week, shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was not supported by the volume and therefore it was a weak decline as there were fewer bearish traders in the market.  The euro weakened strongly last week under the influence of the war in Ukraine and reached strong support at 1.1120. Long-term resistance: 1.1280 – 1.1300. Next resistance is near 1.1370 – 1.1400. Support: 1.1100-1.1140   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 184007 29597 53202 -23605 1967 -7069 8773 -15842 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 182040 36666 44429 -7763 -1194 -3094 4422 -7516 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 183234 39760 40007 -247 -17259 9254 -19665 28919 Weak bearish         Total Change -12050 11743 -11614 23357     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to - 5,809 contracts, down by 8,046 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 7,902 contracts and an increase in short positions by 144 contracts. Total net positions have increased by 23,357 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exiting 11,614 short positions and adding 11,743 long positions. The decline in total net positions of large speculators into negative territory indicates bearish sentiment for the pound. Open interest, which fell by 6,859 contracts last week, indicates that the decline in the pound that occurred last week was not supported by volume and was therefore weak. The pound, just as the euro, might be negatively impacted by risk-off sentiment which could then send the pound towards support which is at 1.3300 or possibly 1.3200. Long-term resistance: 1.3620-1.3640.  Next resistance is near 1.3680 – 1.3750. The resistance is also in the zone 1.3490 – 1.3520. Support is near 1.3270 – 1.3300 and then mainly in the zone 1.3200.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish Feb 01, 2022 196913 18835 98664 -79829 6893 3714 270 3444 Weak bearish Jan 25, 2022 190020 15121 98394 -83273 8884 6070 889 5181 Weak bearish Jan 18, 2022 181136 9051 97505 -88454 -4317 -3332 -6364 3032 Weak bearish         Total Change 7126 -830 -8236 7406     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1 Total net speculator positions last week reached -84,080 contracts, up 2,614 contracts from the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 139 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 2,753 contracts. This data suggests a weakening of the bearish sentiment for the Australian dollar, which is confirmed by the downtrend. Total net positions have increased by 7,406 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exiting 8,236 short contracts while exiting 830 long contracts. However, there was an increase in open interest of 1 contract last week. This means that the upward movement that occurred last week was weak in terms of volume because new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar is very sensitive to the international geopolitical situation. In the event of geopolitical instability, it can usually be expected to weaken especially in the AUDUSD pair and also the AUDJPY. However, last week the Australian dollar surprisingly strengthened and approached the resistance band. Long-term resistance: 0.7270-0.7310                                                                                                            Long-term support: 0.7085-0.7120.  A strong support is near 0.6960 – 0.6990.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 58467 19205 30903 -11698 5151 3257 4182 -925 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 53316 15948 26721 -10773 8589 4336 6778 -2442 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 44727 11612 19943 -8331 2661 652 379 273 Weak bearish         Total Change 14570 6383 9330 -2947     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached a negative value last week - 11,551 contracts, having fallen by 2,218 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 7,580 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 7,580 contracts. This data suggests that the bearish sentiment on the NZ dollar continues. Total net positions have declined by 2,947 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators adding 9,330 short positions and adding 6,383 long positions. Last week, open interest fell significantly by 7,469 contracts. Therefore, the upward movement in NZDUSD that occurred last week is not supported by volume and therefore the move was weak. The strengthening of the NZDUSD that occurred last week is somewhat surprising given the geopolitical tensions in Ukraine. This upward movement is forming a channel pattern, which may be a correction in the current downtrend trend that we can see on the daily or weekly chart. Long-term resistance: 0.6850 – 0.6890 Long-term support: 0.6590-0.6600 and the next support is at 0.6500 – 0.6530.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Metaverse Tokens Sink After Holiday Crypto Rally

Crypto: On Thursday Morning Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), Terra (LUNA) And AVAX Trades Lower Than At The Same Time The Day Before

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 03.03.2022 08:29
Bitcoin slowed down ahead of strong mid-February resistance at $45,000, which then turned the move down. The first cryptocurrency in recent days has not paid too much attention to stock indices, which rose on Wednesday. The technical picture continues to point to a break in the downtrend, although to confirm the reversal, the rate must first fix above 45K. It must be said that bitcoin trading volumes have increased markedly in the last week due to the events in Ukraine. On February 28th, immediately after the Bank of Russia asset freeze, BTC jumped by 11%, showing the highest growth in many months. Due to new sanctions, the Russians withdrew depreciating ruble assets and invested them in cryptocurrencies. In the EU, it was previously discussed that since Bitcoin and Ethereum use the Proof-of-Work consensus mechanism, which consumes a lot of electricity and has a negative impact on the environment, it's time to ban the mining of these cryptocurrencies. However, it was decided to abandon this idea following the new version of the bill on digital assets. Technically, Bitcoin slowed down on Wednesday after two days of active strengthening, and on Thursday morning, it rolled back to 43.1K, losing 2.2% in the last 24 hours. Ethereum is down 3.3% 0.6% in the same period. Leading altcoins from the top ten lose from 1% (Terra, XRP) to more than 5% (Avalanche). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, decreased by 2.5% to $1.09 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index is hovering around 43.1%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index fell 13 points to 29, once again ending up in the fear zone.
Is $50k A Possible Level For Bitcoin Price (BTCUSD)? ETH Decreases By 6.2%

Is $50k A Possible Level For Bitcoin Price (BTCUSD)? ETH Decreases By 6.2%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 04.03.2022 08:28
The momentum of pressure on the crypto market was due to the decline in stock indices, as the Fed gave signals of tightening policy. Technical factors also contributed to the negative dynamics - the inability to overcome the strong resistance of the 100-day moving average and mid-February highs around $45,000. Real Vision CEO Raul Pal believes that the dynamics of bitcoin against the backdrop of foreign political tensions in the world signals the onset of a bullish trend. According to Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, one of the world's leading independent financial institutions, BTC could reach $50,000 by the end of March. Billionaire investor Bill Miller said that the Russian authorities can use BTC as a reserve currency. Earlier, the US authorities called on crypto exchanges to prevent Russia from circumventing sanctions. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia did not begin to soften its attitude towards bitcoin against the backdrop of sanctions and still advocates a complete ban on the circulation and mining of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is developing a correction, losing 4.5% over the past day to $41.4K. Methodical pressure on the first cryptocurrency was formed on Wednesday evening after a short break above $45K. Ethereum fell by 6.2%, other leading altcoins from the top ten sank from 2.8% (BNB) to 7.8% (Solana). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, decreased by 3.7% over the day, to $1.83 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index sank 0.2 points to 42.9%. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index dropped another 6 points to 33 - fear.
Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Sentiment turns as the U.S. looks to regulate cryptos

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Sentiment turns as the U.S. looks to regulate cryptos

FXStreet News FXStreet News 03.03.2022 16:07
Bitcoin price sees its gains being pared back a bit after more talks on regulatory crackdown out of U.S. on cryptocurrencies. Ethereum price slips further away from $3,018 after Powell's speech before Congress talked about regulating cryptocurrencies. XRP price sideways, awaiting a catalyst to go either way. Cryptocurrencies are facing some headwinds – whilst they have enjoyed more inflows of late as both Ukrainian and Russian inhabitants reverted to cryptocurrencies as an alternative means of payment to avoid sanctions – there are signs this loophole will soon be closed. During Biden's State of the Union speech the president asked for a crackdown on cryptocurrencies to close the escape route for wealthy Russians. FED chair Powell added fuel to the fire by saying that he would welcome further regulation to monitor and control cryptocurrencies better. The result is that these comments have triggered some nervousness in all significant cryptocurrency pairs. Bitcoin bulls are rejected at $44,088 with the risk of sliding back to $42,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price saw a full paring back of the losses accumulated during the Russian invasion as cryptocurrencies saw renewed cash inflow from both Russians and Ukrainians looking for alternative means of payment after both central banks had put in cash withdrawal restrictions. As Bitcoin looked to be poised for another leg higher, both Biden and Powell created some headwinds by urging for more regulatory crackdown, as it is emerging that cryptocurrencies are undermining sanctions on Russia. With this renewed negative attention towards cryptocurrencies, investors are being quick to book profits and, in the process, are pushing BTC price action to the downside. BTC price saw an initial rejection at $45,261, a level which coincides with the low of December 17, and as such triggered some profit-taking. As profit-taking continues bulls are faced with another rejection at $44,088, a level that goes back to August 06. Below that, the search for support finds nothing until $41,756 or the psychological $42,000 level near the baseline of a bearish triangle we had marked up earlier. BTC/USD daily chart As more talks are underway, a breakthrough could still happen at any moment. If that happened, it would mean that bears would fail in their attempt to squeeze out bulls and get stopped out themselves once the price pierced through $44,088 to the upside. That move would even accelerate after shooting through $45,261, with a quick rally to $48,760 and, from there, positioning Bitcoin to pop back above $50,000 next week. Ethereum bulls are defending the 55-day SMA, but support is wearing thin Ethereum (ETH) price takes another step back today after more negative connotations from FED Chair Powell in the house hearing before Congress. Next to committing to more rate hikes, Powell also drilled down on cryptocurrencies and called them a risk that needs to be prioritised with regulations. That puts greater regulation for cryptocurrencies at the top of the congressional agenda – after Ukraine, and inland inflation had pushed that bullet point further down the list. For the moment, ETH sees bulls defending the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,880. Although it looks good to hold for now, in the past, the 55-day SMA has not built a solid reputation of being well respected. So expect a possible breach once the US session kicks in and Powell makes more negative comments on cryptocurrencies in his second day of congressional hearings, which will likely push ETH price below the 55-day SMA at $2,880, through the monthly pivot at $2,835, and down to a possible endpoint at around $2,695. ETH/USD daily chart As the situation in Russia further deteriorates with more sanctions on the shelf, residents will be forced even more to flee into cryptocurrencies to avoid any repercussions from the financial sanctions imposed. That would mean broad flux inflow throughout the coming days, with ETH price action popping above $3,018, and in the process breaking the double top of rejection from Tuesday and Wednesday. To the upside, that could see $3,391 for a test as the inflow will outweigh any bearish attempts from short sellers. XRP price testing monthly pivot to the downside as dollar strength weighs Ripple's (XRP) price is under pressure to the downside as bears are putting in their effort to break the new monthly pivot at $0.76. Bears are getting help from the other side of the asset pair by the dollar’s strength weighing on price action for a second consecutive day. With Ukraine's current tension and possible retaliation from Russia against the West, safe havens are broadly bid with the Greenback on the front foot and thus outpacing XRP’s valuation, resulting in a move lower. Expect XRP price to see an accelerated move once the monthly pivot at $0.76 gives way. With not much in the way, the road is open to drop to $0.62, with $0.70 and $0.68 as possible breaking off points where bears could see some profit-taking and attempts by bulls to halt the downturn. But the trifecta of the negative comments from both Biden and Powell joined with the safe-haven bid is too big of a force to withstand, making $0.62 almost inevitable in the coming hours or trading days. XRP/USD daily chart The only event that could turn this around is if a catalyst were to remove the safe-haven bid. That could come with a resolution of the current tension in Ukraine or surrender of the Russian army of some sort. In such an outcome, the safe-haven bid would evaporate, followed by a massive risk-on flow which would see XRP pop above $0.78 and rally to $0.88, taking out $0.84 along the way to the upside.
Your Crypto Focus: 5th-11th March

Your Crypto Focus: 5th-11th March

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 04.03.2022 14:13
It was another week of trade that, in many ways, continues to be governed by the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The week started with a sharp decline but buyers soon came back to life after new lows were hit since the Russian invasion began. Monday and Tuesday saw a follow-up to the buyback with solid gains that have not been seen for a while, hitting a lot of the top ten. For instance, Bitcoin added over 17% in two sessions. This type of buyer momentum got people excited and started to remind us of years just gone by. Sadly, the momentum didn’t last, and we have seen three to two days of declines leading into the weekend session. But the declines have not been market-wide, and we have seen exceptions on the boards, with several coins continuing to fly higher. LUNA, ROOK, ATOM and RUNE have been standouts, but Waves has stolen the show, hitting +67% with a weekly high of $20.87. The top ten and most of the top 25 followed tensions in Europe. As the fighting intensified, markets declined. Today, selling continued to pick up as fighting turned critical as news hit of a major nuclear power station being shelled. As of Friday, many of the top ten and 25 remained in the blue but well off earlier highs. Traders will continue to monitor the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, looking for signs of anything escalating and forcing risk markets lower. US authorities also said they would target Russian funds moving into Crypto. However, proving and stopping it may not impact the currencies. This week we want to look at Bitcoin in more detail. $44,600 has been reconfirmed as resistance and, for now, has stopped the rally. This level is our roof, and a move through would suggest that buyers are still in control. On the downside, we received 36,800 support. If the price returns to this level and breaks through it, we will be looking for sellers to try and resume the downtrend. Otherwise, a hold in-between these two levels suggests we have a consolidation range on our hands. The post Your Crypto Focus: 5th-11th March appeared first on Eightcap.
Bitcoin (BTC) To Hit $100k In A Few Years' Time?

Bitcoin (BTC) To Hit $100k In A Few Years' Time?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 07.03.2022 09:05
With a sharp decline over the weekend, Bitcoin wiped out the initial gains, gave away the positions to bears after the third straight week of gains. On Saturday and Sunday, there were drawdowns to $34K on the low-liquid market. So the rate of the first cryptocurrency fell to $38K with a 3.8% loss. However, over the past 24 hours, BTC has reached $39,000 while Ethereum has lost 4.5%. Other leading altcoins from the top ten decline from 2% (XRP) to 6.8% (LUNA). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 3.8%, to $1.71 trillion. The bitcoin dominance index sank from 42.9% on Friday to 42.3% due to the sale of bitcoin over the weekend. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index is at 23 now, remaining in a state of "extreme fear". Looking back, in the middle of the week, the index had a moment in the neutral position. The FxPro Analyst team mentioned that the sales were triggered by reports that the BTC.com pool banned the registration of Russian users. Cryptocurrencies do not remain aloof from politics, and they are weakly confirming the role of an alternative to the banking system now, supporting EU and US sanctions against Russia, and showing their own initiative. The news appeared that Switzerland would freeze the crypto assets of the Russians who fall under the sanctions. In the second half of the week, bitcoin lost almost all the growth against the backdrop of a decline in stock indices. Although, last week started on a positive wave: BTC added almost $8,000 (21%) since previous Monday, but couldn't overcome the strong resistance of mid-February highs at around $45,000 and the 100-day moving average. Speaking about the prospects, pressure on all risky assets will continue to be exerted by the situation around Ukraine, where hostilities have been taking place for two weeks. Worth mentioning that the world-famous investor and writer Robert Kiyosaki said that the US is “destroying the dollar” and called for investing in gold and bitcoin. At the same time, the founder of the investment company SkyBridge Capital (Anthony Scaramucci) is confident that bitcoin will reach $100,000 by 2024. At the moment, he has invested about $1 billion in BTC. Plis, a group of American senators is developing a bill that opens access to the crypto market for institutional investors. And one more news to consider: the city of Lugano in Switzerland has recognized bitcoin and the leading stablecoin Tether (USDT) as legal tender.
The Swing Overview - Week 9

The Swing Overview - Week 9

Purple Trading Purple Trading 07.03.2022 20:22
The Swing Overview - Week 9 The war in Ukraine continues, and although we all want this tragic event to be ended immediately, but unfortunately, according to last statements of Russian officials, it looks like the war will drag on for a longer period of time. Investors have reacted to this development by selling risk assets, including the Czech koruna. Stock indices are losing ground and the DAX in particular has been under heavy pressure. On the other hand, commodities such as oil, gold, and coal are strengthening strongly. Somewhat surprising is the development in the Australian dollar, which usually weakens in the events of geopolitical uncertainties. However, there is a reason for its current rise. More on this in our article. Conflict in Ukraine   Vladimir Putin probably did not expect to encounter such a brave resistance from Ukraine and that  almost the whole world would send Russia into isolation through significant sanctions. The list of companies and actions that have cut ties with Russia is growing day by the day and Western companies are leaving Russia. Thus, for Russians, foreign goods (food, clothing, furniture, electronics, cars) will gradually become very rare. Probably the strongest sanction that Russia has felt so far, was the freeze of the Russian Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves. In response, the Russian ruble began to depreciate significantly on February 28, 2022, and has already lost more than 30% of its pre-invasion value. In response, the Russian Central Bank intervened by raising the interest rate to 20%, which temporarily halted the ruble's fall.    Figure 1: The Russian ruble paired with the USD and the euro Meanwhile, Western countries have not exhausted all options to stop Russia in this war through economic sanctions in case of further escalation of the conflict yet. The fact that European countries might stop taking Russian gas is also at stake. This would, of course, have a very significant impact on the entire European economy. However, these are still just some economic losses, which can not be   compared at all with the losses of lives experienced by the unprecedentedly attacked Ukraine. In any case, this crisis seems to have the potential to surpass in its consequences the crisis that occurred in Russia in 1998, which led to inflation exceeding 80% and central bank interest rates reaching 150%.   Data from the US economy The ISM manufacturing sentiment indicator for February came in at 58.6 which is better than expected and points to an optimistic development of the US economy. In the labour market sector, the ADP (non-farm job change) indicator was reported, which showed that 475 thousand jobs were created in America in February (compared to 509 thousand in January). The number of unemployment claims reached 215 thousand last week, which was less than expected 226 thousand. Thus, the data show that the US economy is doing well so far and the US Fed is going to raise interest rates at its next meeting on March 16, 2022. Jerome Powell said that he would support a 0.25% rate hike. Powell also said that the war in Ukraine means significant uncertainty for monetary policy.   The US dollar and bond yields The US dollar continues to strengthen, as the USD index shows. In addition to the expected US interest rate hike, the US dollar bullishness is explained by demand for US government bonds in times of uncertainty. Demand for these bonds then pushes down their yields, which continue to fall. Figure 2: 10-year government bond yield on the 4H chart and USD index on the daily chart Index SP500 The US SP 500 index moved in a consolidation range last week. This shows that investors have so far viewed the conflict in Ukraine as an event that is more or less a regional event and therefore saw cheap stocks as a buying opportunity.  However, the sanctions adopted by Western countries will of course also have an impact on the global economy, especially if the conflict deepens further. This concern was then reflected at the end of the week when the index started to weaken. Figure 3: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   Resistance according to the H4 chart is in the region of around 4,410 - 4,420. The nearest support according to the H4 chart is at 4255 - 4284. Significant support is at 4,100 - 4,113. German DAX index In contrast to the SP 500 index, there was a big sell-off in the DAX, showing that investors are worried, among other things, that a further escalation of the conflict could lead to a disruption in the supply of Russian gas, on which Germany is heavily dependent.  According to the daily chart, it looks like the DAX index is now in free fall and is breaking through support barriers as if they did not exist. It looks like the market is starting to show signs of panic selling by inexperienced investors.  If you are speculating in the short term, then bear in mind that short term speculation against such a strong downtrend is very disadvantageous and risky.   Figure 4: DAX on H4 and daily chart     Current resistance is in the area of 13,655 - 13,756. The price is now at support at 13,400, which is already slightly broken, but the closing of the whole session will be crucial. The next support is then at 13 000 - 13 100.   The Czech koruna is losing significantly The Czech koruna has long benefited from the interest rate differential, which has been very favourable for the koruna against the euro and has been the reason why the koruna has appreciated strongly since November 2021. But the Czech koruna, along with other Central European currencies, is a currency that is losing ground heavily in the current conflict.   Figure 5: The EURCZK on the daily chart   Firstly, there is the concern that the Czech Republic is geographically quite close to Ukraine, even though the Czech Republic does not have very significant exports directly with Ukraine nor Russia (in total, around 3% of total Czech exports). At the same time, there is concern about the Czech Republic's dependence on Russian gas. If the taps are closed, then the koruna could shoot above  CZK 27 per euro. Currently, the EURCZK pair is trading at the resistance level of 25. 80 - 25.90.   The Australian dollar The Australian dollar is a currency that tends to weaken during major global crises. In particular, the AUDJPY pair is correlated with the SP 500 index in the short term. Currently, however, the Australian dollar is strengthening.  This is because the Australian economy is export-oriented and exports commodities such as gold, iron ore, coal and gas.  All these commodities are now in high demand. Europe, for example, is realising that dependence on Russian gas is not paying off and is looking for alternatives. A temporary solution will be to rebuild coal-fired power stations. Germany and Italy have already started to buy coal stocks, which are therefore appreciating strongly. As a result, the price of coal has sky-rocketed, with one tonne reaching a record price of the USD 400. Figure 6: The coal price   The gold, traditionally seen as a safe haven in times of uncertainty, is also strengthening. The gold has also been helped by a fall in US bond yields.   Figure 7: The gold on H4 and D1 charts   In terms of technical analysis, the gold stopped at the resistance of $1,973 per ounce. The nearest support according to the daily chart is  $1,870 - 1,878 per ounce. The rise in commodity prices then resulted in the strengthening of the Australian dollar.     Figure 8: The AUDJPY currency pair on D1 chart   The AUDJPY broke the resistance in the range of 0.8400 - 0.8420, which became the new support. The next resistance is then at the level of 85.90 - 86.20.  
Large Currency Speculators raise their Brazilian Real bullish bets to Record High

Large Currency Speculators raise their Brazilian Real bullish bets to Record High

Invest Macro Invest Macro 05.03.2022 20:47
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the jump in bullish bets in the Brazilian Real currency futures contracts. Real speculators increased their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and by a total of +63,801 contracts over this four-week time-frame. This bullishness has taken the Real speculator level from -13,353 net positions on February 1st to +50,448 net positions this week. The current overall speculator standing has now climbed to the most bullish level on record, according to the CFTC data that goes back to the mid-1990’s and eclipsing the previous high set in 2017. The BRLUSD currency pair price has been in an uptrend since the beginning of the year and has reached the highest levels since June just below the 0.2000 exchange rate. The currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Brazil real (26,003 contracts), Mexican peso (25,553 contracts), Euro (5,633 contracts), British pound sterling (5,472 contracts), Canadian dollar (4,887 contracts), Australian dollar (5,744 contracts) and Bitcoin (363 contracts). The currencies with lower speculator bets were the US Dollar Index (-1,310 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,545 contracts), Swiss franc (-4,261 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,621 contracts) and the Russian ruble (-9,843 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 56,651 82 34,774 86 -39,391 9 4,617 67 EUR 719,975 91 64,939 55 -95,105 49 30,166 24 GBP 211,869 46 -337 74 14,129 38 -13,792 27 JPY 208,629 61 -68,732 25 79,535 76 -10,803 27 CHF 47,273 24 -15,248 43 20,862 54 -5,614 47 CAD 143,507 26 14,140 61 -21,586 42 7,446 45 AUD 189,667 75 -78,336 12 87,737 84 -9,401 30 NZD 50,389 44 -14,172 47 16,090 55 -1,918 30 MXN 154,664 28 42,378 45 -45,811 54 3,433 58 RUB 24,753 11 9,674 36 -9,068 65 -606 18 BRL 94,577 100 24,445 74 -27,081 25 2,636 97 Bitcoin 9,980 51 80 99 -517 0 437 23   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 34,774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,310 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,084 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.2 8.5 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.9 78.1 2.3 – Net Position: 34,774 -39,391 4,617 – Gross Longs: 43,761 4,831 5,942 – Gross Shorts: 8,987 44,222 1,325 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.1 to 1 4.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.8 9.1 67.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.9 5.0 -14.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 64,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,306 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.7 54.2 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.7 67.4 7.5 – Net Position: 64,939 -95,105 30,166 – Gross Longs: 228,385 390,260 84,321 – Gross Shorts: 163,446 485,365 54,155 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.9 48.8 24.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.4 -12.6 7.1   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -337 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,809 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.5 62.1 10.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.7 55.4 17.2 – Net Position: -337 14,129 -13,792 – Gross Longs: 47,679 131,583 22,551 – Gross Shorts: 48,016 117,454 36,343 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.8 38.0 27.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.1 6.7 -23.2   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -68,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,187 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.0 80.3 10.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.0 42.2 15.9 – Net Position: -68,732 79,535 -10,803 – Gross Longs: 14,665 167,605 22,407 – Gross Shorts: 83,397 88,070 33,210 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.6 75.7 26.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.7 -10.0 17.5   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -15,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,987 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.5 74.1 21.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.7 30.0 33.3 – Net Position: -15,248 20,862 -5,614 – Gross Longs: 1,651 35,045 10,127 – Gross Shorts: 16,899 14,183 15,741 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.3 54.3 46.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.8 8.0 -7.7   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,140 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,253 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.5 40.1 21.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.6 55.2 16.3 – Net Position: 14,140 -21,586 7,446 – Gross Longs: 50,881 57,576 30,817 – Gross Shorts: 36,741 79,162 23,371 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 61.4 42.2 44.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.4 -5.4 2.4   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -78,336 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,080 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.7 80.1 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.0 33.8 15.4 – Net Position: -78,336 87,737 -9,401 – Gross Longs: 12,720 151,922 19,865 – Gross Shorts: 91,056 64,185 29,266 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.2 84.4 29.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.4 -8.0 1.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -14,172 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,551 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.8 72.1 5.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.9 40.2 9.1 – Net Position: -14,172 16,090 -1,918 – Gross Longs: 10,485 36,326 2,665 – Gross Shorts: 24,657 20,236 4,583 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.5 55.2 29.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 8.4 4.3   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 42,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 25,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,825 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 48.5 46.9 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.1 76.5 1.9 – Net Position: 42,378 -45,811 3,433 – Gross Longs: 74,971 72,497 6,306 – Gross Shorts: 32,593 118,308 2,873 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.4 53.7 57.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.0 -16.0 3.7   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 24,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,760 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 55.0 40.2 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 68.9 2.0 – Net Position: 24,445 -27,081 2,636 – Gross Longs: 51,990 38,039 4,541 – Gross Shorts: 27,545 65,120 1,905 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.4 24.7 97.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 34.7 -37.1 31.8   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 9,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,843 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,517 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.6 51.9 3.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.6 88.5 5.9 – Net Position: 9,674 -9,068 -606 – Gross Longs: 11,050 12,848 855 – Gross Shorts: 1,376 21,916 1,461 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.3 64.8 18.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.7 -4.2 -39.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 80 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -283 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.0 3.2 12.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 79.2 8.4 7.6 – Net Position: 80 -517 437 – Gross Longs: 7,981 321 1,198 – Gross Shorts: 7,901 838 761 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 98.7 0.0 22.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.8 -39.7 -3.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Is It Too Late To Begin Adapting To Higher Volatility In The Market?

Is It Too Late To Begin Adapting To Higher Volatility In The Market?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 07.03.2022 22:18
Now is the time for traders to adapt to higher volatility and rapidly changing market conditions. One of the best ways to do this is to monitor different asset classes and track which investments are gaining and losing money flow. Knowing what the Best Asset Now is (BAN) is critical for consistent growth no matter the market condition.With that said, buyers (countries, investors, and traders) are panicking as the commodity Wheat, for example, gained more than 40% last week.‘Panic Commodity Buying’ in Wheat – Weekly ChartAccording to the US Dept. of Agriculture, China will hold 69% of the world’s corn reserves, 60% of rice and 51% of wheat by mid-2022.Commodity markets surged to their largest gains in years as Ukrainian ports were closed and sanctions against Russia sent buyers scrambling for replacement supplies. Global commodities, commodity funds, and commodity ETFs are attracting huge capital inflows as investors seek to cash in on the rally in oil, metals, and grains.How does the Russia – Ukraine war affect global food supplies?The conflict between major commodity producers Russia and Ukraine is causing countries that rely heavily on commodity imports to feed their citizens to enter into panic buying. The breadbaskets of Ukraine and Russia account for more than 25% of the global wheat trade and nearly 20% of the global corn trade.Last week, it was reported that many countries have dangerously low grain supplies. Nader Saad, an Egypt Cabinet spokesman, has raised the alarm that currently, Egypt has only nine months’ worth of wheat in silos. The supply includes five months of strategic reserves and four months of domestic production to cover the bread needs of 102 million Egyptians. Additionally, Avigdor Lieberman, Israel’s economic minister, said on Thursday (3/3/22) that his country should keep “a low profile” regarding the conflict in eastern Europe, given that Israel imports 50 percent of its wheat from Russia and 30 percent from Ukraine.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!The longer-term potential for much higher grain prices exists, but it’s worth noting that Friday’s close of nearly $12.00 a bushel for wheat is not that far away from the all-time record high of $13.30, recorded 14-years ago. According to Trading Economics, wheat has gone up 75.08% year-to-date while other commodity markets like Oats are up a whopping 85.13%, Coffee 74.68%, and Corn 34.07%.How are other markets reacting to these global events?Year-to-date comparison returns as of 3/4/2022:-9.18% S&P 500 (index), -7.49% DJI (index), -15.21% Nasdaq (index), +37.44% Exxon Mobile (oil), +20.08% Freeport McMoran (copper & gold), -20.68% Tesla (alternative energy), -24.49% Microstrategy (bitcoin play), -40.51% Meta-Facebook (social media)As stock holdings and 401k’s are shrinking it may be time to re-evaluate your portfolio. There are ETFs available that can give you exposure to commodities, energy, and metals.Here is an example of a few of these ETFs:+53.81% WEAT Teucrium Wheat Fund+41.79% GSG iShares S&P TSCI Commodity -Indexed Trust+104.40 UCO ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil+59.32% PALL Aberdeen Standard Physical Palladium SharesHow is the global investor reacting to rocketing commodity prices and increasing market volatility?We can track global money flow by monitoring the following 1-month currency graph (www.finviz.com). The Australian Dollar is up +4.25%, the New Zealand Dollar +3.72%, and the Canadian Dollar +0.30% vs. the US Dollar due to the rising commodity prices like metals and energy. These country currencies are known as commodity currencies.The Switzerland Franc +0.96%, the Japanese Yen +0.35%, and the US Dollar +0.00% are all benefiting from global capital seeking a safe haven. As volatility continues to spike, these country currencies will experience more inflows as capital comes out of depreciating assets and seeks stability.We also notice that capital outflow is occurring from the European Union-Eurodollar -4.55% and the British Pound -2.22% due to their close proximity (risk) to the Russia - Ukraine war.www.finviz.comGlobal central banks will need to begin raising their interest rates to combat high inflation!Due to the rapid acceleration of inflation, the US Federal Reserve may have been looking to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at its policy meeting two weeks from now. However, given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the FED may become more cautious and consider raising interest rates by only 25 basis points on March 15-16.What strategies can help you navigate current market trends?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals are starting to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.Now is the time to keep your eye on the ball!I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 1/3/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 1/3/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 07.03.2022 21:35
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 1/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index fell 1,310 contracts last week. This change is the result of 35 contracts increase in long positions and a 1,345 contracts increase in short positions. Growth in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound, the Australian dollar, and the Canadian dollar. Decreases in total net positions occurred in the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc.   Following Russia's invasion to Ukraine, markets shifted into risk-off sentiment. This means that especially the euro and the pound are weakening. The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are strengthening due to rising prices of commodities that these countries export. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399 Feb 01, 2022 34571 29716 -23605 -79829 -11698 -60640 18264 -8239 Jan 25, 2022 36861 31560 -7763 -83273 -10773 -68273 12317 -8796 Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Bullish Feb 01, 2022 685431 213563 183847 29716 2479 155 1999 -1844 Weak bullish Jan 25, 2022 682952 213408 181848 31560 -8930 1507 -5469 6976 Bullish         Total change 28093 16484 -23871 40355     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 64,939 contracts last week, which is an increase by 5,633 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 14,190 contracts and an increase in short positions by 8,557 contracts. These data suggest continued bullish sentiment in the euro. Open interest, which has increased by 23,293 contracts in the last week, shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by volume and is therefore strong. The euro is weakening sharply under the influence of the war in Ukraine and we can see that support levels have not been respected in such a strong trend. In a strong downtrend it is very risky to try to catch the bottom and open bullish long positions.  Long-term resistance: 1.0980 – 1.1010. Next resistance is near 1.1120 – 1.1150. Support: 1.0640-1.0700 The British pound date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 184007 29597 53202 -23605 1967 -7069 8773 -15842 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 182040 36666 44429 -7763 -1194 -3094 4422 -7516 Bearish         Total change 28635 7919 8009 -90     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached to -337 contracts, having increased by 5,472 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 5,430 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 42 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment, but it is weak as the total net positions of large speculators increased. Open interest, which rose by 23,426 contracts last week, means that the fall in the pound that occurred last week was supported by volume and is therefore strong. Risk off sentiment due to the war in Ukraine continues to weigh on the pound as well as the euro and therefore the pound is weakening strongly. Long-term resistance: 1.3270-1.3300.  Next resistance is near 1.3420 – 1.3440. The resistance is also in the zone 1.3490 – 1.3520. Support is near 1.3150 – 1.3200.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish Feb 01, 2022 196913 18835 98664 -79829 6893 3714 270 3444 Weak bearish Jan 25, 2022 190020 15121 98394 -83273 8884 6070 889 5181 Weak bearish         Total change 8531 3669 -6449 10118     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached to - 78,336 contracts, up by 5,744 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 1,167 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,577 contracts. This data suggests a weakening of bearish sentiment in the Australian dollar. However, last week we saw a decline in open interest by 2,912 contracts. This means that the upward movement that occurred last week in the AUDUSD was weak because new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar has been strengthening strongly recently, which is explained by the rise in the prices of commodities that Australia exports. These commodities include coal, gas and gold.  Long-term resistance: 0.7520-0.7560                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.7085-0.7120.  A strong support is near 0.6960 – 0.6990.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 58467 19205 30903 -11698 5151 3257 4182 -925 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 53316 15948 26721 -10773 8589 4336 6778 -2442 Bearish         Total change 5662 -1127 4714 -5841     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1     The total net positions of speculators last week reached a value of - 14,172 contracts, having fallen by 2,621 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 6,858 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,237 contracts. This data suggests that the bearish sentiment for the NZD continues. Last week, open interest fell significantly by 6,247 contracts. Therefore, the upward movement in the NZDUSD that occurred last week is not supported by volume and therefore the price action was weak. The strengthening of the NZDUSD that occurred last week is somewhat surprising given the geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and risk off sentiment. What helped the NZD rise are rising prices of commodities  such as milk, which New Zealand produces. Long-term resistance: 0.6850 – 0.6890 Long-term support: 0.6590-0.6600 and the next support is at 0.6500 – 0.6530.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
USDCAD Trades Higher, EURGBP Nears 0.83, S&P 500 (SPX) Fell A Little

USDCAD Trades Higher, EURGBP Nears 0.83, S&P 500 (SPX) Fell A Little

Jing Ren Jing Ren 08.03.2022 09:29
USDCAD breaks higher The US dollar bounces back as traders pile into safer currencies at the expense of commodity assets. The previous rally above the supply zone at 1.2800 has prompted sellers to cover. Then a follow-up pullback saw support over 1.2600, a sign of accumulation and traders’ strong interest in keeping the greenback afloat. A breakout above 1.2810 could pave the way for an extended rise to last December’s high at 1.2950, even though the RSI’s situation may briefly hold the bulls back. 1.2680 is a fresh support in case of a pullback. EURGBP bounces back The euro recoups losses as shorts cover ahead of the ECB meeting. The pair’s fall below the major floor (0.8280) on the daily chart further weighs on sentiment. The lack of support suggests that traders’ are wary of catching a falling knife. The RSI’s double-dip into the oversold area has led to profit-taking, driving the price up. However, the rally could turn out to be a dead cat bounce if the bears fade the rebound in the supply zone around 0.8360. 0.8200 is a fresh support when momentum comes back again. SPX 500 struggles to rebound The S&P 500 extended losses as investors are wary of a global economic downturn. On the daily chart, a brief rebound has met stiff selling pressure on the 30-day moving average (4410). In fact, this indicates that the bearish mood still dominates after the index fell through 4250. Buyers have failed to hold above 4230, leaving the market vulnerable to another round of sell-off. 4110 is the next stop and a bearish breakout could lead to the psychological level of 4000. 4320 is now the closest resistance ahead.
XAUUSD Chart And Bitcoin Charts - BTC/USDT And Bitcoin Vs Gold Chart

XAUUSD Chart And Bitcoin Charts - BTC/USDT And Bitcoin Vs Gold Chart

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 08.03.2022 10:21
Bitcoins image boost   In times of war, unfortunately, other news is quickly overshadowed temporarily. Gold, monthly chart, cup and handle: Gold in US Dollar, monthly chart as of March 7th, 2022. One significant factor is the gold bullish monthly chart with its cup and handle price formation. The larger time frame of the related market plays a substantial role in inter-market analysis. Gold, leading wealth preservation “insurance” for your money in inflationary times, should be on a bitcoin trader/investor’s radar. We find a bullish tone in gold to support possible bitcoin price increases.     Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, monthly chart, bitcoin is cheap: Bitcoin versus Gold in USD, monthly chart as of March 8th, 2022. An additional welcoming factor can be found in the monthly chart of the bitcoin relationship towards gold. Presently, around 20 ounces buy you one bitcoin, while in the last quarter of last year, the same bitcoin cost you instead 37 ounces of gold. Consequently, those who have exited a fiat currency system or those who constructively hedge their wealth preservation portfolio might have a greater focus on bitcoin currently as on gold; it is cheaper. Bitcoin, weekly chart, still a couple weeks: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 8th, 2022. A look at a weekly bitcoin chart shows temporary weakness in a general up slope near an entry zone. The last two weeks provided for substantial income-producing trading through partial profit-taking. Bitcoin had delivered a 32% range from US$34,322 to US$45,400. Unfortunately, there was no directional follow-through beyond this point, and bitcoin has yet again retraced substantially. Currently, Bitcoin is hovering right above a low-risk entry zone again, and we are hawkishly looking out for low-risk entries. A look into the past shows that it took bitcoin ten weeks to turn around in scenario A. Our timing prognosis is another two weeks now before we see possibly fast advancements. Bitcoins image boost: Some think of chocolate when thinking of Switzerland, and indeed this news is sweet to the bitcoin community. Bitcoins’ last step to gain momentum is widespread adoption. News, like the 10% increase in GDP since El Salvador’s declaration of bitcoin being accepted legal tender, is impressive. Yet, it is still met with doubt due to either political or economic situations of countries that have adopted bitcoin so far. With a central money mecca now representing progressive bitcoin use and old history of a conservative, strong financial stability image backing such behavior, widespread mass doubt can be swayed towards more bitcoin adaptation.   Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 8th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Positive News From Europe Supports (BTC) Bitcoin Price - Is $40.000 Coming?

Positive News From Europe Supports (BTC) Bitcoin Price - Is $40.000 Coming?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 08.03.2022 16:05
Bitcoin price action sees bulls storming out of the gate, with BTC bouncing off a $38,073 historical pivot. BTC price set to tick $39,780 intraday in a range-trading profile. Expect to see more upside, should BTC continue its rally from positive signals out of Ukraine, and punch through the 55-day SMA. Bitcoin price action is back on the front foot today as global markets surf positive news of a ceasefire and fresh round of talks between Russia and Ukraine. The lift in positive sentiment spilled over into cryptocurrencies and saw positive prints across the board. Bitcoin was no different, with the price up 2.30% for the day at the time of writing and a possible tick of over 4% profit going into the U.S. session this evening. Bitcoin sees bulls taking over in ceasefire setback for bears Bitcoin price action is whipsawing between $45,000 to the upside and $34,000 to the downside, in a bandwidth that has been drawn since January. With global markets remaining stressed and on edge, today is set to give a sigh of relief and blow off some steam out of the pressure cooker that is Ukraine. Expect to see further decompression going into the U.S. session as this positive news gets picked up and translated into another round of bullish uplift for the cryptocurrency. BTC price is set to tick $39,780 and will try to break the high of last weekend. But bulls will immediately face another level of resistance, with the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $40,250, and the $40,000 level in the way. Add to that the monthly pivot at $41,000 – so within a $1,000 – and there are three bearish elements capable of cutting short any attempts for further upside if no additional relief catalysts are added to the current headlines. BTC/USD daily chart Over the weekend, a ceasefire was already tried but failed after just a few minutes. Should that be the case again, expect this to break the fragile trust that has been in place now since recent talks yesterday. Expect BTC price action to be pushed back to $38,073 a drop of around 4%.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Has Increased By 8.7%, Ether (ETH) Has Gone Up By 7.9%, XRP Has Added 3.3%, Terra +21%

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Has Increased By 8.7%, Ether (ETH) Has Gone Up By 7.9%, XRP Has Added 3.3%, Terra +21%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 09.03.2022 08:43
The last bitcoin growth impulse confirmed the break of the downtrend: the chart confidently rebounded from the former upper limit of the downtrend trading range. However, as before in March, a consolidation above the previous highs in the area of $45K is required to confirm a break in the trend. As Ethereum dropped to a 10-day low, traders started buying put options in anticipation of the second cryptocurrency falling to $2,200. On March 14, the European Parliament will approve the final version of the bill on the regulation of cryptocurrencies without wording that could be interpreted as a potential ban on bitcoin mining. US President Biden will also sign an executive order to regulate cryptocurrencies this week. The focus may be on tracking transactions and preventing circumvention of US sanctions. The cost of bitcoin in rubles has updated its historical highs, exceeding 5 million rubles. Bitcoin was not so expensive even in April and November 2021, when its price in dollars exceeded $60,000. In general, the benchmark cryptocurrency has jumped by 8.7% over the past day, to 41,450. Ethereum has added 7.9% over the same time, while other leading altcoins from the top ten show growth from 3.3% (XRP) to 21% (Terra). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 6.9% over the day, to $1.83 trillion. The dominance index jumped to 43%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index rose 1 point to 22, remaining in "extreme fear" territory.Bitcoin was bought on the decline to $38K, and the move to $40K on Wednesday morning caused a surge in buying, probably associated with the closing of part of the short positions, quickly bringing the rate to current values.
Russia-Ukraine is there any hope for the markets

Russia-Ukraine is there any hope for the markets

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 09.03.2022 11:23
The Russian rouble remains under pressure, while all the new controls on currency transactions in Russia are alienating the exchange rate at home and on global FX. The 12% commission on currency purchases explains the difference between the external and domestic exchange rates. That said, one must realise that "catching the bottom" of the ruble is hardly wise when new sanctions are imposed almost on a daily basis. The economic landslide continues with extreme speed. Across the other EM markets, there is a concern or even pessimism about the medium-term outlook, and some relative easing of the fear level is striking in the stock markets today. Commodity markets, which continued their move towards new extremes yesterday, have encountered substantial selling, which continues today. Some reduction in the excitement can be attributed to hopes of progress towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.Nevertheless, the conditions already prevailing in commodity markets are putting serious pressure on EM equities and currencies. EM populations are more vulnerable to soaring basic food and energy prices and currencies to capital outflows due to flight to safety. All of this is tightening financial conditions is undermining the economic recovery that investors had hoped for at the start of the year because of the retreat of the pandemic. While the end of last year and the beginning of this one were sentiments that growth momentum was shifting from the US to Europe and emerging markets, events in recent weeks have not only returned EM markets to the downward trend but again show that US markets are the best refuge for capital. For example, Chinese indices are losing 35% (Hang Seng) to 43% (China H-star) from their February 2021 peak. And this trend will not quickly reverse even if the military conflict in Eastern Europe ends right now because economic and reputational damage has already been done, which will take months or even years to undo.
Stocks rebound slightly as hopes of a Russia-Ukraine deal increase

Stocks rebound slightly as hopes of a Russia-Ukraine deal increase

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 09.03.2022 11:54
European stock markets started the day trading higher following a mixed Asian session which saw Nikkei drop 0.3% while S&P/ASX 200 gained 1% and as indices from China plunged and finished 1.7-5.0% lower. Meanwhile, the United States announced a total ban on Russian oil, natural gas and coal with the United Kingdom announcing that it will phase out Russian oil in the coming months. In response, Putin signed a decree banning exports of certain commodities from Russia and investors await the announcement within days to determine the potential impact on markets. Furthemore, a growing number of companies have announced their withdrawal from or suspension of services in Russia with McDonald's, Starbucks and Coca-Cola being the latest to make such announcements and isolating the country economically even more. While this rebound may encourage investors and increase confidence in the market, it is essential to keep in mind that any major news related to the ongoing conflict could have wide repercussions and may shake the extremely fragile market sentiment. Crypto markets rebound as sentiment improves ahead of Biden executive orderCryptocurrencies appeared to show signs of strength in the Asian session which have continued at the start of the European trading session with Bitcoin gaining over 8% and trading around $42,000, the highest level in a week. The crypto market cap is up over 6% today and has returned to around $1.85 Trillion after several days of uncertainty which followed the surge in demand seen at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict that was sparked by significant interest from people of that region as they attempted to seek refuge from the collapsing economy and currency. As has been the case in the past, Bitcoin and Ethereum appear to be dragging the rest of the market with the majority of alt-coins also adding to their gains despite generally lagging slightly behind the majors. Furthermore, US president Biden is expected to make an announcement today regarding an executive order on cryptocurrencies that may pave the way for a broader adoption of digital assets and boost investor confidence in the relatively new asset class. While details of this announcement remain unclear, any sign of regulation or mainstream adoption could prove to be a catalyst for a major move across the crypto markets thanks to the influx of new money of both retail and institutional investors.
How Will The Next Events Around Russia-Ukraine Conflict Affect Markets?

How Will The Next Events Around Russia-Ukraine Conflict Affect Markets?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 09.03.2022 16:19
Russia's denial of wanting to overthrow Ukraine's government has boosted the market mood. Ongoing bombing, accusations of using biological weapons may come to haunt markets. The safe-haven dollar and gold have room to recover after the recent slide. All markets are saying, is give peace a chance – paraphrasing John Lennon's song, that is what is going on, with stocks and risk currencies rising while safe-haven assets are tumbling down. However, it may become worse before it becomes better. The latest bout of optimism stems from Russia's statement that it does not seek to overthrow Ukraine's government and its preference to resolve differences via discussions. The Kremlin added that it has never threatened and does not threaten NATO. These olive branches join Tuesday's news that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signaled he is willing to give up NATO membership and the upcoming meeting of the two countries foreign ministers planned for Thursday in Turkey. On the ground, a humanitarian ceasefire is in effect in several Ukrainian cities on Wednesday, and civilians are begin evacuated, so far safely. Markets have reacted positively to these developments, with S&P futures jumping by 2%, EUR/USD jumping by some 80 pips, and safe havens such as gold and the dollar suffering significant falls. Is the war nearing its end? Not so fast. Reasons to worry First, Russia continues bombing Kyiv and is likely using this day of relative calm to regroup and resupply its troops, which have suffered massive logistical failures. Several of the previous ceasefires were not respected and this may happen again. Secondly, Russia's statements are also one that the US has declared economic war on it. Such comments contradict the better vibes that have previously boosted the market mood. Russia also accuses its enemy of developing biological weapons, in what seems like an excuse to intensify attacks. Third, Ukrainian President Zelensky called on Russian troops to "surrender while you still can" and that "we will answer in full for all our killed people" – militant statements are not exclusive to one side. The war will eventually end, hopefully, sooner rather than later. However, it seems overoptimistic to circle Wednesday as the beginning of the end, and that everything improves from here. Another escalation may come shortly, souring the market mood and boosting the safe-haven gold and dollar. Moreover, with every day that passes, the damage to the global economy increases. While shortages of energy have yet to be seen – prices are rising without any stop in the flow of oil or gas – food issues may become a burden for the global economy. Russia and Ukraine produce a vast amount of wheat and barley, which are now blocked. That is already raising food prices. And while the war continues, so do new Western sanctions. The EU has approved a new list of restrictions on Russian leaders and oligarchs, and also disconnect several Belarusian banks from the SWIFT payments system. All in all, it will likely get worse before it becomes better and that means another rush to the dollar and gold.
Crypto Update: Bitcoin (BTC) Has Lost 5.6%, Ether (ETH) Has Decreased By 4.8%, Terra (LUNA) Has Lost 1% And AVAX Has Gone Down As Well

Crypto Update: Bitcoin (BTC) Has Lost 5.6%, Ether (ETH) Has Decreased By 4.8%, Terra (LUNA) Has Lost 1% And AVAX Has Gone Down As Well

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 10.03.2022 08:33
Bitcoin soared 8.8% on Wednesday, ending the day around $41.9K. Apparently, the benchmark cryptocurrency experienced clear problems with growth above $42K. On Thursday morning we see an equally strong reversal move back to $39K. As a result, Bitcoin lost 5.6% in 24hours Ethereum - 4.8%, other leading altcoins from the top ten are declining from 1% (Terra) to 7.2% (Avalanche).According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 4.5% over the day, to $1.75 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index dropped from 43.0% to 42.7%.The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index added 6 points to 28, climbing into “fear” territory.Bitcoin's growth momentum was also supported by the positive dynamics of stock indices, however, on Thursday morning, the positive pull on them remains in contrast to the sell-off of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin jumped when a statement by Janet Yellen appeared on the website of the US Department of the Treasury, which does not contain strict measures to control the field of cryptocurrencies. The statement was posted, probably prematurely, and then quickly removed from the site.Later on Wednesday, US President Joe Biden signed the first executive order to regulate cryptocurrencies in the country. The document contained only the most general provisions, such as consumer protection, financial stability, technology development and the illegal use of cryptocurrencies. More specific measures in the field of control over the digital asset market will be developed by individual federal departments. In our opinion, the States are making it clear that they will not allow cryptocurrencies to become a shadow business and be used to circumvent sanctions, taxes, money laundering and similar things. Such control is more difficult to implement than with centrally issued fiat money.    
Crypto Update: Bitcoin Price Has Decreased By 1%, ETH Hasn't Fluctuate Much. XRP Has Gone Up By 1.6%

Crypto Update: Bitcoin Price Has Decreased By 1%, ETH Hasn't Fluctuate Much. XRP Has Gone Up By 1.6%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 11.03.2022 08:37
Bitcoin fell 5.4% on Thursday, ending the day near $39.6K, and further to $38.9K on Friday morning, down 1% in 24 hours. Ethereum has remained almost unchanged over the same time (-0.3%), while other leading altcoins from the first are changing in different directions, from a 1.6% increase (XRP) to a 1% decrease (BNB). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 0.2% over the day to $1.74 trillion. The bitcoin dominance index continues to decline, falling from 42.7% yesterday to 42.4% due to the greater stability of altcoins. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed lost 6 points in a day to 22, again entering the territory of "extreme fear". Bitcoin fully returned the growth of Wednesday, which was caused by the adoption in the United States of the first document on the regulation of cryptocurrencies. The decline in stock indices and the growth of the dollar also did not favour the purchases of the first cryptocurrency, which often moves in unison with the general demand for risks. The first decree on cryptocurrencies signed the day before can become the basis for future US legislation on regulating relations in the crypto sphere. Against this background, the shares of companies associated with cryptocurrencies have noticeably risen in price. One of the largest investment banks, Goldman Sachs, is going to expand its offering for trading digital assets. The bank is exploring the possibility of launching bilateral crypto-currency options. World-famous investor and writer Robert Kiyosaki has warned that the world economy is now on the verge of hyperinflation and advised to "stay away" from the stock market. Against the backdrop of a severe crisis in the financial system of the Russian Federation and restrictions imposed on the circulation of the dollar and the euro, the demand of the population for cryptocurrency has increased sharply. Now it is primarily used for the transfer of capital abroad or for parking in "hard" currency. Analysts believe that regulators are unlikely to be able to effectively prevent such transactions. But the state is helped by crypto-exchanges, which block the Russians on their own initiative. There remain the possibilities of p2p platforms, that is, transfers between individuals. However, there are significant risks of fraud associated with such transactions.
COT Currency Speculators boost Mexican Peso bullish bets to 104-week high

COT Currency Speculators boost Mexican Peso bullish bets to 104-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 12.03.2022 22:20
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the rising bullish sentiment in the Mexican Peso currency futures contracts. Peso speculators have boosted their bullish bets for six consecutive weeks and in nine out of the past ten weeks. Over the past six-week time-frame, Peso bets have gained by a total of +53.807 contracts, going from -790 net positions on January 25th to +53,017 net positions this week. This recent improvement in Peso positioning pushed the current net speculator standing (+53,017 contracts) to the most bullish level in the past one hundred and four weeks, dating back to March 10th of 2020. Joining the Mexican peso (10,639 contracts) with positive changes this week were the Japanese yen (12,876 contracts), Brazil real (48 contracts), Swiss franc (5,538 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,793 contracts), Australian dollar (141 contracts) and Bitcoin (185 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-730 contracts), Euro (-6,095 contracts), British pound sterling (-12,189 contracts), Canadian dollar (-6,494 contracts) and the Russian ruble (-1,868 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-08-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 62,447 95 34,044 85 -37,890 12 3,846 59 EUR 738,990 98 58,844 53 -83,873 52 25,029 16 GBP 246,312 68 -12,526 65 25,457 45 -12,931 29 JPY 208,683 61 -55,856 33 76,657 74 -20,801 5 CHF 51,820 30 -9,710 53 21,942 56 -12,232 27 CAD 149,425 30 7,646 55 -15,494 46 7,848 45 AUD 197,094 80 -78,195 12 78,183 77 12 52 NZD 53,250 50 -12,379 50 13,592 51 -1,213 38 MXN 166,433 34 53,017 50 -55,194 50 2,177 52 RUB 22,420 7 7,806 32 -7,325 69 -481 22 BRL 68,623 65 50,496 100 -52,564 0 2,068 90 Bitcoin 9,591 48 265 100 -422 0 157 17   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 34,044 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -730 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,774 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 73.7 12.8 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.2 73.4 2.9 – Net Position: 34,044 -37,890 3,846 – Gross Longs: 46,031 7,962 5,642 – Gross Shorts: 11,987 45,852 1,796 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.8 to 1 0.2 to 1 3.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.5 11.6 58.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.9 7.7 -19.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 58,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,939 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 52.3 11.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.9 63.7 8.2 – Net Position: 58,844 -83,873 25,029 – Gross Longs: 242,683 386,654 85,727 – Gross Shorts: 183,839 470,527 60,698 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.1 52.0 15.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.4 -7.8 0.5   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -12,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -337 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.7 66.8 9.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.8 56.4 14.6 – Net Position: -12,526 25,457 -12,931 – Gross Longs: 50,982 164,423 23,076 – Gross Shorts: 63,508 138,966 36,007 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.0 44.7 28.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.4 5.1 -8.0   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,856 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,876 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,732 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.5 81.6 8.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.2 44.9 18.1 – Net Position: -55,856 76,657 -20,801 – Gross Longs: 15,548 170,330 16,884 – Gross Shorts: 71,404 93,673 37,685 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.7 74.3 4.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.9 -3.1 -13.5   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -9,710 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,248 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.4 70.7 17.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.1 28.4 40.9 – Net Position: -9,710 21,942 -12,232 – Gross Longs: 4,856 36,635 8,947 – Gross Shorts: 14,566 14,693 21,179 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.0 55.5 27.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.6 9.6 -22.1   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 7,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,494 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,140 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.5 41.7 22.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.3 52.1 17.5 – Net Position: 7,646 -15,494 7,848 – Gross Longs: 48,492 62,360 33,951 – Gross Shorts: 40,846 77,854 26,103 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.1 46.4 45.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.5 2.8 1.2   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -78,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 141 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,336 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.9 74.1 13.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.6 34.5 13.0 – Net Position: -78,195 78,183 12 – Gross Longs: 19,521 146,144 25,564 – Gross Shorts: 97,716 67,961 25,552 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.3 77.2 52.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.7 -14.6 35.3   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -12,379 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,172 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.6 62.0 5.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.9 36.5 7.5 – Net Position: -12,379 13,592 -1,213 – Gross Longs: 15,775 33,005 2,792 – Gross Shorts: 28,154 19,413 4,005 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.5 51.3 37.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.7 0.5 14.8   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 53,017 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,639 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,378 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.7 36.4 3.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.8 69.5 2.1 – Net Position: 53,017 -55,194 2,177 – Gross Longs: 76,020 60,537 5,674 – Gross Shorts: 23,003 115,731 3,497 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.0 49.8 52.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.9 -22.4 -0.4   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 48 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,448 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.5 15.3 5.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.9 91.9 2.1 – Net Position: 50,496 -52,564 2,068 – Gross Longs: 54,543 10,468 3,488 – Gross Shorts: 4,047 63,032 1,420 – Long to Short Ratio: 13.5 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 90.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 62.0 -62.3 8.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 7,806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,674 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.5 60.6 2.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 1.6 93.3 5.1 – Net Position: 7,806 -7,325 -481 – Gross Longs: 8,173 13,590 657 – Gross Shorts: 367 20,915 1,138 – Long to Short Ratio: 22.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.9 68.7 21.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.1 -7.0 -22.4   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.9 2.8 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 78.1 7.2 8.3 – Net Position: 265 -422 157 – Gross Longs: 7,760 272 950 – Gross Shorts: 7,495 694 793 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 7.6 16.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.4 4.5 -8.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Blockchain Gaming - Where NFT, RPG And Layer 2 Meet

Apple Co-Founder Speaks Of The Future Of Bitcoin Price

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 14.03.2022 08:42
Bitcoin has decreased over the past week by 0.9%, ending it at around $38,700. Yesterday, the decline continued, bringing the price to 38500. Ethereum lost 0.7% in 24 hours and added 1.5% in a week. Other leading altcoins from the top ten show mixed dynamics over 24 hours: from a decline of 3.8% (XRP) to a rise of 3.3% (Terra). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 14% in 24 hours, to $1.72 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index fell 0.1% to 42.4%. The FxPro Analyst Team emphasized that the Cryptocurrency fear and greed index added 2 points in a day to 23 and remains in "extreme fear" condition. In the first half of the past week, the first cryptocurrency tried to strengthen, testing five-day highs near $42,600. Later, BTC lost all gains, again being thrown back to support near $38,000. Pressure on all risky assets continues to be exerted due to the situation in Ukraine. One of the Apple founders, Steve Wozniak, said that bitcoin would reach $100,000, which will be facilitated by the general interest in cryptocurrency. At the same time, he has a negative attitude towards altcoins and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has again rejected applications from the NYSE Arca and Cboe BZX Exchanges to create spot bitcoin ETFs due to non-compliance with US exchange law. El Salvador has announced that it will postpone the issuance of bonds in bitcoins in connection with the events in Eastern Europe. The received funds were planned to be used for the construction of the "Bitcoin City". Visiting the UAE, Russians massively sell cryptocurrency for billions of dollars. Earlier, FBI Director Christopher Wray emphasized that the United States has vast experience in tracking cryptocurrencies, and Russia will not be able to use them to circumvent sanctions.  
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 8/3/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 8/3/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 14.03.2022 16:01
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 8/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index fell by 730 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 2,270 contracts and an increase in short positions by 3,000 contracts. The decrease in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound, and the Canadian dollar. The increase in total net positions occurred in the New Zealand dollar, the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.     The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399 Feb 01, 2022 34571 29716 -23605 -79829 -11698 -60640 18264 -8239 Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Bullish Feb 01, 2022 685431 213563 183847 29716 2479 155 1999 -1844 Weak bullish         Total Change 56038 29275 1991 27284     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 58,844 contracts last week, down by 6,095 contracts from the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 14,198 contracts and an increase in short positions by 20,393 contracts. These data suggest a weakening of the bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest, which rose by 19,015 contracts in the past week, shows that the downward price action movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by volume and it was  therefore a strong trend. The euro continues to weaken under the influence of the war in Ukraine and we can see that support levels have not been respected in such a strong trend. The ECB's announcement last week to end the bond purchases in 3Q 2022 also contributed to the euro’s weakness. This hawkish statement at a time when economic growth is slowing sparked fears of stagflation in the market and therefore the euro weakened following the ECB announcement.   Long-term resistance: 1.1120 – 1.1150. Support: 1.080-1.0850. The next support is at 1.0640-1.0700.   The British pound date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 184007 29597 53202 -23605 1967 -7069 8773 -15842 Bearish         Total Change 64272 14316 19079 -4763     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 12,526 contracts, having fallen by 12,189 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 3,303 contracts and the growth in short positions by 15,492 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net speculators positions  are negative while there has been a further decline as well. Open interest, which rose by 34,443 contracts last week, means that the fall in the pound that occurred last week was supported by the volume and it was therefore a strong price action. Risk off sentiment due to the war in Ukraine continues to weigh on the pound as well as the euro and therefore the pound is weakening strongly. Long-term resistance: 1.3180-1.3210.  Next resistance is near 1.3270 – 1.3330. Support is near 1.3000.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish Feb 01, 2022 196913 18835 98664 -79829 6893 3714 270 3444 Weak bearish         Total Change 7074 4400 -678 5078     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week reached 78,195 contracts, up by 141 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 6,801 contracts and the growth in short positions by 6,660 contracts. This data suggests a weakening of the bearish sentiment for the Australian dollar. Last week we saw an increase in open interest of 7,427 contracts. This means that the downward movement that occurred last week was supported by volume as new money flowed into the market. The Australian dollar weakened quite significantly last week. This may be explained by the fact that there has been a fall in prices in commodities that Australia exports (e.g. gold, coal). The decline in commodity prices also reflects efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine.  Long-term resistance: 0.7370-0.7440                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.7085-0.7120.  A strong support is near 0.6960 – 0.6990.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 58467 19205 30903 -11698 5151 3257 4182 -925 Bearish         Total Change -66 -173 1433 -1606     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached a negative value last week - 12,379 contracts, having increased by 1,793 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 5,290 contracts and an increase in short positions by 3,497 contracts. This data suggests that the bearish sentiment on the NZ dollar has weakened over the past week. Open interest rose significantly by 2,861 contracts last week. The downward movement in the NZDUSD that occurred last week was therefore supported by volume and therefore the move was strong. The weakening in the NZDUSD that occurred last week can be explained by the decline in the prices of commodities that New Zealand produces. Long-term resistance: 0.6850 – 0.6920 Long-term support: 0.6590-0.6600 and the next support is at 0.6500 – 0.6530.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk To Save His Bitcoins And Other Crypto

Tesla CEO Elon Musk To Save His Bitcoins And Other Crypto

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.03.2022 08:36
Bitcoin slightly strengthened over the past day to 38,800 (+0.5%). Ethereum lost 0.8%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten range showed an amplitude from -2.4% (Avalanche) to +3.7% (Terra). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 0.4% in 24 hours, to $1.73 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose 0.3 points to 42.7%. The fear and greed index is at 21 (-2 points) now and is remaining in a state of "extreme fear". The FxPro Analyst Team emphasized that Bitcoin updated its weekly lows around $37,500 today. Subsequently, the first cryptocurrency bounced up, briefly rising above $39,300 in the middle of the day on the news from Elon Musk. The CEO of Tesla said he had no plans to sell his cryptocurrencies. Musk tweeted that he owns not only Bitcoin but also ETH and DOGE. However, BTC did not show a strong reaction to this statement: during the American session, it levelled a slight increase against the backdrop of a fall in US stock indices. Dogecoin reacted to Musk's comment much more violently, jumping more than 7% at the time. According to CoinShares, institutional investors withdrew about $110 million from crypto funds last week, despite seeing the largest capital inflow in three months the week earlier. The European Union abandoned plans to introduce a virtual ban on mining based on the Proof-of-Work (PoW) mechanism. At the same time, Russian State Duma deputy Alexander Yakubovsky said that Russia has a real opportunity to create its own crypto exchanges.
Uncertain Rebound and Inflation Data: How Likely Is Bitcoin To Fall Again?

Bitcoin Price Charts: BTC/XAUUSD And BTCUSDT - 15/03/22

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 15.03.2022 14:39
Bitcoin is needed as an alternative   The weakened US-Dollar and the present unexpected climate seems not being fully reflected in bitcoin´s price. Consequently, bitcoin prices could soar in the not too distant future. Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart, bottom building: Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart as of March 15th, 2022. A phenomenon in times of crisis is that individuals look for absolutes or extremes to resolve difficult circumstances. We instead advocate a more principle-based process of solving problems, an approach of choices. Regarding wealth preservation, this would mean gold and silver alongside bitcoin. The daily chart of the bitcoin/gold-ratio shows the bottom building after a downtrend. Currently, one can purchase a bitcoin for twenty ounces of gold. Nearly half as much as five months ago. Indeed, an opportunity to rotate one’s precious metal holding partially into a cheap bitcoin acquisition.     Bitcoin, monthly chart, in waiting position: Bitcoin in USD, monthly chart as of March 15th, 2022. War inherently divides nations, and that does not mean limiting only the ones directly in conflict with each other. It is this divide that, in addition, fuels the competition for each nation to be first in their digital currency release. Sanctioned countries have limited access to the US-Dollar. Consequently, they are highly motivated to create an alternate payment method. The monthly chart is not showing this fundamental support for bitcoin. Early signs of a triangle show that we find likely to break to the upside. Slow stochastic indicator reading (A) shows that the last time around at these levels, a strong up move followed. Similar to the yellow CCI turbo line-level reading (B). Before such a move, we witnessed a quick price spike down (C), which would be no surprise. Bitcoin, weekly chart, bitcoin as an alternative is needed: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 15th, 2022. Zooming into the weekly time frame, we can make out the battle between bulls and bears in more detail. Over the last three weeks, prices were rejected above the POC (point of control = high volume node, where our volume profile analysis ranges over the previous fifteen months). As well, price behavior is reflecting the war climate’s uncertainty. At the same time, the bulls have held steady any attempt of the bears trying to push prices below US$37,500. Hence, we should see a substantial move once trading snaps out of this “magnet trading” to the high-volume node. Bitcoin, daily chart, gains and volatility: Bitcoin in USD, daily chart as of March 15th, 2022. The daily chart of bitcoin above describes how we see the future unfold. We anticipate the price to reach all-time highs within the upcoming month. Unfortunately, not in bitcoins typical swing trading manner. We foresee a choppy, volatile market. Consequently, short and midterm trading will be challenging. Stepping up in time frame is a helpful approach to avoid the noise. Bitcoin is needed as an alternative: Governments will try to keep their monopolies and power. However, we don’t think that the adoption of a digital dollar by the masses will not be that easy. We find this especially true to be in a highly transitory time of rapid changes and many challenges. Typically, multiple propaganda waves through media have bridged such doubt but might have lost some of its trustworthiness. Consequently, bitcoin has a fair chance for mass adoption just as well. It already has a history and carries inherent features of freedom that people might long for more than anticipated.   Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 15th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
🔥 SHIBA Volatile Move Ahead: Triangle Analysis

(SHIB) Shiba Inu Price - How Will Be The Altcoin Affected?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 15.03.2022 16:27
Shiba Inu price action sees price pressure against the technical triangle base at $0.00002140. SHIB price action set to test the low of its existence. As global markets threaten to drop into a recession, investors will flee cryptocurrencies in the coming days. Shiba Inu (SHIB) price action is on the cusp of breaking out of a bearish triangle that has dictated price action over the past two months. With a break to the downside, room opens up for an almost 70% drop towards the lowest levels in its existence as investors flee cryptocurrencies overall, following more and more reports that global markets are going into recession. With this dire projection in mind, expect to see further bleeding of SHIB price action as it falls back to $0.00000655. Shiba Inu price action bleeds as investors flee from recession fears Shiba Inu price action is seeing a massive squeeze building from bears trying to break out of the bearish triangle as more and more headwinds combine each day. The situation in Ukraine and new lockdowns in China are spelling supply chain issues again, and banks are starting to use the word recession more often in their reports about the future. This weighs on investor sentiment as cryptocurrencies are put on the backfoot and witness a daily outflow of cash from investors pulling the plug on their positions. SHIB price looks to break below $0.00002140 any moment now, with considerable momentum behind it from the death cross with the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) below the 200-day SMA. Next to that, the Relative Strength Index is nowhere near being oversold, opening the door for short sellers to pick up some more gains in the downtrend. Expect to see a sharp drop in the coming days towards $0.00001000, breaking the monthly S1 and S2 support levels along the way, only to find a floor near $0.00000607, which is near the lowest level in SHIB’s. SHIB/USD daily chart Although red flags are popping up all over financial markets, investors could still be working on a turnaround in an attempt to look beyond the current crisis at hand. If central banks can steer economies out of this dire situation, expect investors to start buying into cryptocurrencies to take advantage of lucrative discounts. This could spill into a turnaround and see price action first pop back above $0.00002500, breaking the bearish 55-day SMA and hitting $0.00002787, above the 28.6% Fibonacci level.
How Will The Day End For Forex And USD? Awaiting Fed Decision....

How Will The Day End For Forex And USD? Awaiting Fed Decision....

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 16.03.2022 11:41
Today, the USD has continued its move lower, with fresh selling accelerating today. Ukrainian comments that peace talks are looking more realistic has set off risk demand with traders moving out of safe-havens and back into traditional risk markets like stocks and risk currencies like the AUD, GBP and EUR. Stock indexes in Europe and US futures are seeing firm gains heading towards the US session open. The Fed is another factor to watch today, and they meet at 2 pm ET. The FED is expected to raise rates by one-quarter of a percent, its first move higher since 2018. “My guess is it’s going to sound a little more hawkish than people want it to sound, and that’s going to be a little tough to digest, particularly in the fixed income markets,” David Zervos, chief market strategist at Jefferies, told CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Tuesday. “I think the equity market might digest it a little bit better, but it’s going to be a tough swallow.” Hawkish is normally seen as a positive for the country’s currency, but we wonder how much could be factored in from the Fed? Could it disappoint an already weak USD? It will be interesting to see if the Fed can overrule factors in Europe that have been supporting higher USD values. Oil continues to sell off from highs, inflation fears on the front might have started to cool off on the short term. We can see a LH on the daily USD chart. If this point can continue to hold, we will look for the new short term trend to remain in play—a break and close above the LH at 99.07. We will be looking for bulls to resume their push. USD Daily Chart The post Forex Update: Could the FED add to the USD woes? appeared first on Eightcap.
Bitcoin price undergoes sharp fade as bulls storm out of the gate

Bitcoin price undergoes sharp fade as bulls storm out of the gate

FXStreet News FXStreet News 16.03.2022 16:28
Bitcoin price action jumped 7% but fell back sharply in European trading.BTC price action looks to be set to jump above $41,756.61 once the US session kicks in.Expect to see a further continuation of this price jump throughout the week as long as positive signals come from the ongoing talks in Russia.Bitcoin (BTC) price action is performing a countercyclical move this morning as Asian bulls storm out of the gate on positive-speak from the Chinese government. From now on into the European session, gains are still present but have faded slightly. Expect to see a subsequent round of wins coming in during the US session and going further into this week as long as positive signals are communicated independently from both sides in Ukraine and Russia peace talks.Bitcoin price sees bulls swimming against the tideBitcoin price action seems to have awakened many investors who fell asleep staring at their television screen for the past three weeks on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As they pulled out their money and went long cash, cryptocurrencies dried up a bit and were left to the mercy of bears. Today a few bears will be licking their wounds as bulls have gone in for a push higher as more positive signals come from both Ukraine and Russia on talks, and markets are getting used to the war headlines as everything looks to be priced in. BTC price action technically got rejected to the upside at $41,756.61, the base of a bearish triangle that formed a few weeks ago. Expect this fade in early trading to provide a window of opportunity for European and American bulls to join the rally and ramp up the price above $41,756.61, where a close above will be key this evening. If trading can start on Thursday with an opening price above $41,756.61, expect to see another leg higher by tomorrow evening, near $44,088.73 and even $45,261.84 by Friday.BTC/USD daily chartThe risk could be that the current fade, after the rejection at $41,756.61, could topple into a deeper loss if bears push the price below the opening price. This would trigger panic amongst bulls that got in and will have them remember the same scenario that happened exactly one week ago on Wednesday with a false breakout and a full paring back, and even eking out further losses the day after. Expect bulls to exit instantly once BTC price action prints red numbers, and this to spiral into a setback for BTC price towards $38,703.32 or even $36,709.19.
Binance Academy: Non-fungible Tokens: $69 Millions For An NFT!? NFT - What Is It?

Non-fungible Token Of Instagram!? Bitcoin (BTC) Trades Quite High

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 17.03.2022 08:53
Instagram will implement NFT in a couple of months, Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg said. Despite the loud statement, it should be noted that all of Zuckerberg's projects related to digital assets previously failed and did not find wide support from the digital community. The head of Meta has a good sense of trends of social networks, augmented reality or metaverses, and in the latter two, there are more and more fast-growing projects. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is up nearly 4% over the past 24 hours to $41K. Ethereum added 4.7% to $2.75K, while Terra is out of the range, losing 0.6% in 24 hours, and other leading altcoins from the top ten add from 3.5% (XRP) to 9.8% (Avalanche). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, grew by 4% over the day, to $1.82 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose 0.2 points to 42.8%. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed added 3 more points in a day, to 27, moving from extreme anxiety to just fear. The FxPro Analyst Team mentioned that demand for bitcoin was supported by it rising for the second day in a row. It was helped by the strengthening of stock indices and the weakening of the dollar. On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve raised rates by 0.25%, but the comments made by market participants seemed softer than expected, which caused the dollar to fall. According to Glassnode, $1.2 billion worth of bitcoin was withdrawn from the Coinbase crypto exchange in just a week. This is the largest net outflow since July 2017, which signals the mood of investors for long-term storage of the asset. Despite the positive dynamics in recent days, Bitcoin has been trading in a sideways range between $37K and $42K for almost the entire month of March, unable to choose a further direction. Since the last days of February, there has been a solid support line on the declines under $38K. And this is bullish strength, reflecting that long-term buyer interest has migrated from $30K to $38K due to inflation and geopolitical tensions. Such a migration of the level of interest to long-term buyers fully reflects the price jump, which is the actual depreciation of the value of fiat currencies.
Forex Update: Could the FED add to the USD woes?

Forex Update: Could the FED add to the USD woes?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 17.03.2022 11:41
Today, the USD has continued its downside move, with fresh selling accelerating. The Ukrainian comments that peace talks are looking more realistic has set off risk demand with traders moving out of safe-havens and back into traditional risk assets, including stocks and currencies like AUD, GBP and EUR. Meanwhile, stock indexes in Europe and US futures are seeing firm gains heading towards the US session open. The Fed is another factor to watch today, because they’ll meet at 2 pm ET. FOMC is expected to raise rates by one-quarter of a percent, which will be its first move higher since 2018. “My guess is it’s going to sound a little more hawkish than people want it to sound, and that’s going to be a little tough to digest, particularly in the fixed income markets,”, David Zervos, chief market strategist at Jefferies, told CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Tuesday. “I think the equity market might digest it a little better, but it’s going to be a tough swallow.” Hawkish is normally seen as a positive for the country’s currency, but we wonder how much could be factored in from the Fed? Could it disappoint an already weak USD? It will be interesting to see if the Fed can overrule factors in Europe that have been supporting higher USD values. Oil continues to sell off from its highs. On other hand, inflation fears on the front might have started to cool off in the short-term. We can see the lower highs (LH) on the daily US Dollar Index chart. If this point can continue to hold, we will look for a new short-term trend to remain in play—a break and close above the LH at 99.07. We will be looking for bulls to resume their push. USD Daily Chart The post Forex Update: Could the FED add to the USD woes? appeared first on Eightcap.
Trading plan for Dogecoin on June 22, 2022

Dogecoin price could tank as India’s central bank closes the doors to cryptos

FXStreet News FXStreet News 17.03.2022 16:34
The Indian Central Bank came out this morning with firm rejection against adopting cryptocurrencies in the country. Dogecoin price action undergoes firm rejection against a double technical barrier. DOGE set to tank by 8% as bears see opportunity fit to pair back gains from Wednesday yet again. Dogecoin (DOGE) price action saw bulls being hit by ice-cold water this morning as two headlines made the sky drop on their heads. These were the Kremlin coming out saying that talks are nowhere near as positive as markets are frontrunning, and the Indian Central Bank (RBI) giving a firm rejection to the adoption of cryptocurrencies. The RBI branded cryptocurrencies as a tool that will wreck the currency system, monetary authority and government's ability to control the economy. This is a significant blow and setback for cryptocurrencies that saw bulls coming up yesterday for a catch of fresh air but are now again submerged underwater with negative prints today. Dogecoin price gains short-lived Dogecoin price action is not currently in a sweet spot as in just 5 minutes, two separate comments unrelated to each other trashed bulls’ game plan to target $0.1357 next week. Instead, DOGE price action fell back to its opening price and took a step back as bulls reassessed the situation – due to some unforeseen tail risks that caused headwinds overpowering the tailwinds that emerged the day before. Expect to possibly see DOGE price action tumble again to the downside, in a similar scenario to last week. DOGE price action got a firm rejection from negative headlines at $0.1197 with the green ascending trend line and that intermediary top-line proving too big for bulls to take on. Instead, price action collapsed back to the entry-level and looked heavy and dangling, as if poised to drop at any moment to the downside. A possible downside target is set at $0.1137 and $0.1100 with the last one making a triple bottom – although there is also the risk of a break even further to the downside if more tail-risk materialises. DOGE/USD daily chart Once the US session takes over, it could well be that investors look beyond these very short-term headlines, considering them as partial hiccups before moving on. That would mean a pickup in buying interest which could lead to a punch through $0.1197 to the upside. This would open the door towards $0.1242 intraday and possibly again on track for $0.1357.
Uncertain Rebound and Inflation Data: How Likely Is Bitcoin To Fall Again?

Bitcoin Price Prediction - $500k Level In A Few Years Time?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 18.03.2022 09:00
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, known for his bullish predictions, has unveiled a new one that sees BTC hit $500,000 in 2025. Should we believe in that? No sharp movements According to the Santiment team, Bitcoin whale activity has fallen to its lowest level in a year in recent days. Therefore, one should not expect sharp movements in the market soon. In confirmation of this, Bitcoin is down only 0.4% over the past 24 hours to $40.7K. Ethereum has added 1.5% over the same time, other leading altcoins from the top ten are changing from -2.0% (Terra) to 5% (Avalanche). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 0.3% over the day, to $1.83 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index decreased by 0.4% to 42.4% due to the better dynamics of altcoins. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed lost 2 points to 25 in a day and again found itself in a state of "extreme fear". In searching of the bottom Despite the outstripping dynamics of altcoins, a sequence of lower and lower local highs continues to form in Bitcoin. In early February, the upside lost momentum as it moved above $45.5K. In the first days of March, the bears already dominated on the way to $45K, on the 8th already near $42.5K, and in the last two days they are trying to form a downward reversal at $41.5K. At the same time, the bulls manage to form a strong support near $38K. The FxPro Analyst Team emphasized that in terms of technical analysis, BTCUSD remains close to its 50-day moving average, clearly indicating the absence of any trend now. However, a consolidation in a descending triangle is usually a respite before the next decline. We will see the implementation of this scenario if BTCUSD fixes under $38K. An alternative scenario and a new upside momentum should be expected if the bulls manage to push the price above the previous highs of $42.5K, or close the day/week above $42K. News to consider Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, known for his bullish predictions, has unveiled a new one that sees BTC hit $500,000 in 2025. The State Russian Duma urged to speed up the launch of the cryptoruble in order to better bypass Western sanctions. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation recommended that banks strengthen control over the operations of clients related to cryptocurrencies.
🔥 SHIBA Volatile Move Ahead: Triangle Analysis

(SHIB) Shiba Inu Price Has Lost The Gains From The Recent Past

FXStreet News FXStreet News 18.03.2022 16:02
Shiba Inu price action falls back to Monday’s opening levels, making it a week of hardly any gains or losses. SHIB price action looks a bit bearish as another broader support test is set to kick in later today. SHIB price is still set to tank to $0.00001500 as bearish momentum continues. Shiba Inu (SHIB) price action retook a step back and pared almost all the gains from Wednesday’s rally. Investors are swinging back into bearish mode as tail risks emerge and are put at the top of the agenda going into the weekend. Conflicting rumours and contrary remarks from what is going on in Ukraine are keeping investors puzzled and refraining them from continuing to open risk-on bets. Shiba Inu price sees puzzled investors turning their back on crypto Shiba Inu price action is set to erase its gains from earlier this week. SHIB price rose after the news that peace talks were making good progress. Yet this all looked to be thrown in the bin overnight as several headlines came out about Russiabeing not at all optimistic, and the US even putting the threat of nuclear weapons back on the table, as it sees Russia possibly trying to squeeze out a peace agreement that meets all of its demands but none of Ukraine’s. Shiba Ina and other cryptocurrencies saw bulls repeating the same mistake as last week when they got squeezed out by the weekend. SHIB price action is again dropping back to the baseline of a longer term triangle with the green trend line as its base. Multiple tests up until now have been held, but with the meeting between Biden and Xi this evening, it looks clear that the US wants to get a clear answer from China as to whether it is with the US against Russia, or with Russia – offering no middle ground. The tail risk from this meeting going into the weekend could trigger a break at $0.00002111 and see a drop towards $0.00001708, the low of January, which could well overshoot towards $0.00001500. SHIB/USD daily chart Of course, a truce or ceasefire would help turn the current sentiment around. If that were to happen expect a big pop in price action, capped at a max 13% gain, to where the red descending trend line and side of the triangle intersect with the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) . Yet at the moment this seems an impossible hurdle to break through seeing the weakness of bulls currently at hand.
Large Forex Speculators boosted their bets of Commodity Currencies this week

Large Forex Speculators boosted their bets of Commodity Currencies this week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 19.03.2022 17:45
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the strong speculator sentiment for the commodity currencies in the currency futures contracts. The Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar all saw boosts in their bets that either pushed their bullish standings higher or sharply reduced their bearish levels this week. The Australian dollar saw the largest improvement with a huge net gain of over +33,000 contracts this week which marked the largest one-week increase in the past three hundred and sixty-five weeks, dating all the way back to March of 2015. This week’s gain dropped the AUD’s current bearish standing down to -44,856 contracts from approximately -78,000 contracts in the previous week. The New Zealand dollar contracts saw a one-week gain of +16,032 contracts which marked its largest one-week rise in the past one hundred and seventeen weeks (back to December of 2017). This rise brought the NZD speculator positions out of bearish territory for the first time in fourteen weeks to a very small bullish level of +3,653 contracts. Finally, the Canadian dollar contracts increased by a net position of +10,094 contracts this week after falling in four out of the previous five weeks. This climb in speculative bets brings the current CAD bullish standing to the best level of the past six weeks. Overall, the currency markets with higher speculator bets this week were the New Zealand dollar (16,032 contracts), Canadian dollar (10,094 contracts), Swiss franc (4,481 contracts) and the Australian dollar (33,339 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-5,664 contracts), Mexican peso (-63,593 contracts), Euro (-40,050 contracts), Japanese yen (-6,484 contracts), Brazil real (-6,333 contracts), British pound sterling (-16,535 contracts), Russian ruble (-263 contracts) and Bitcoin (-75 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 47,574 62 28,380 75 -31,969 21 3,589 56 EUR 666,010 70 18,794 41 -42,629 64 23,835 14 GBP 188,323 31 -29,061 53 37,279 52 -8,218 39 JPY 215,484 65 -62,340 29 87,597 80 -25,257 0 CHF 43,356 19 -5,229 61 17,460 50 -12,231 27 CAD 143,863 26 17,740 65 -13,145 50 -4,595 21 AUD 124,521 25 -44,856 43 48,640 55 -3,784 43 NZD 39,200 23 3,653 77 -1,815 28 -1,838 31 MXN 102,749 4 -10,576 23 7,848 76 2,728 55 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 68,874 65 44,163 94 -46,800 6 2,637 97 Bitcoin 10,198 53 190 98 -453 0 263 19   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 28,380 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,664 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,044 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.6 3.1 11.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.9 70.3 3.5 – Net Position: 28,380 -31,969 3,589 – Gross Longs: 39,767 1,452 5,242 – Gross Shorts: 11,387 33,421 1,653 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.5 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.7 21.5 55.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.7 16.5 -40.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -40,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,844 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.3 55.4 11.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.5 61.8 7.7 – Net Position: 18,794 -42,629 23,835 – Gross Longs: 202,040 369,253 75,191 – Gross Shorts: 183,246 411,882 51,356 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.8 63.7 13.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.4 4.2 -6.5   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -29,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -16,535 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,526 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.2 66.9 12.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.7 47.1 16.9 – Net Position: -29,061 37,279 -8,218 – Gross Longs: 32,442 125,994 23,650 – Gross Shorts: 61,503 88,715 31,868 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.1 51.7 38.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.9 5.0 -6.1   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -62,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,484 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,856 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.8 75.7 7.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.7 35.0 18.9 – Net Position: -62,340 87,597 -25,257 – Gross Longs: 34,016 163,089 15,533 – Gross Shorts: 96,356 75,492 40,790 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.6 79.7 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.1 4.1 -13.6   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,229 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,710 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.4 66.3 20.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.5 26.1 48.4 – Net Position: -5,229 17,460 -12,231 – Gross Longs: 5,808 28,761 8,768 – Gross Shorts: 11,037 11,301 20,999 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.8 50.5 27.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.3 1.0 -11.5   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 17,740 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,094 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,646 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.0 41.3 20.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.6 50.4 23.5 – Net Position: 17,740 -13,145 -4,595 – Gross Longs: 47,406 59,344 29,213 – Gross Shorts: 29,666 72,489 33,808 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 64.9 50.0 20.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.5 9.0 -23.8   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -44,856 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 33,339 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,195 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.5 62.3 15.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 55.5 23.3 18.6 – Net Position: -44,856 48,640 -3,784 – Gross Longs: 24,281 77,621 19,378 – Gross Shorts: 69,137 28,981 23,162 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.2 55.2 43.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 32.4 -35.4 30.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 3,653 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,032 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,379 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 54.8 37.4 6.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.5 42.1 10.9 – Net Position: 3,653 -1,815 -1,838 – Gross Longs: 21,493 14,671 2,417 – Gross Shorts: 17,840 16,486 4,255 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 77.4 27.6 30.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 25.8 -24.4 5.5   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,576 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -63,593 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,017 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.1 55.1 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.4 47.5 3.5 – Net Position: -10,576 7,848 2,728 – Gross Longs: 39,164 56,610 6,302 – Gross Shorts: 49,740 48,762 3,574 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 22.8 76.1 54.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.8 4.9 -1.7   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 44,163 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,496 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.1 13.7 6.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.0 81.7 2.3 – Net Position: 44,163 -46,800 2,637 – Gross Longs: 55,181 9,444 4,239 – Gross Shorts: 11,018 56,244 1,602 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.0 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 93.8 5.6 97.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 56.5 -55.9 -3.0   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 190 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -75 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 265 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.3 2.7 10.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 76.5 7.2 7.5 – Net Position: 190 -453 263 – Gross Longs: 7,989 279 1,029 – Gross Shorts: 7,799 732 766 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 98.4 5.1 18.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.0 3.0 -2.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Potential recovery to approx. US$2,000

Potential recovery to approx. US$2,000

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 20.03.2022 10:13
Starting at a low of US$1,780 on January 28th, gold went up rapidly US$290 within less than six weeks, reaching a short-term top at US$2,070. Since that high on March 8th, however, gold prices fell back even faster. In total, gold plunged a whooping US$175 to a low of US$1,895 in the aftermath of last week’s FOMC meeting. A quick bounce took prices back to around US$1,950, but the weekly close at around US$1,920 came in lower.This volatile roller coaster ride is truly not for the faint of heart. Nevertheless, gold has done well this year, and, despite a looming multi-months correction, it might now be in a setup from which another attack towards US$2,000 could start in the short-term.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of March 19th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of March 19th, 2022.On the weekly chart, gold prices have been rushing higher with great momentum. For five consecutive weeks, the bulls were able to bend the upper Bollinger band (US$1,963) upwards. However, the final green candle closed far outside the Bollinger bands and looks like a weekly reversal. Consequently, if gold has now dipped into a multi-month correction, a retracement back to the neckline of the broken triangle respectively the inverse head & shoulder pattern in the range of US$1,820 to US$1,850 would be quite typical and to be expected. In this range, the classic 61.8% retracement of the entire wave up (from the low at US$1,678 on August 9th, 2021, to the most recent blow off top at US$2,070) sits at US$1,827.79. The weekly stochastic oscillator has not yet rolled over, but weekly momentum is overbought and vulnerable.In total, the weekly chart shows a big reversal and therefore no longer supports the bullish case. However, it could still take some more time before a potential correction gains momentum.  Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of March 19th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of March 19th, 2022.While the weekly chart may just be at the beginning of a multi-month correction, the overbought setup on the daily chart has already been largely cleared up by the recent steep pullback. Despite Friday’s rather weak closing, the odds are not bad that gold might very soon be turning up again. However, gold bulls need to take out the pivot resistance around US$1,960 to unlock higher price targets in the context of a recovery. The potential Fibonacci retracements are waiting at US$1,962, US$2,003 and US$2,028. Hence, gold could bounce back to approx. US$2,000, which is a round number and therefore a psychological resistance.On the other hand, if gold fails to move back above Thursday’s high at US$1,950, weakness will increase immediately and significantly. In that case, bulls can only hope that the quickly rising lower Bollinger Band (US$1,861) would catch and limit a deeper sell-off. But since the stochastic oscillator has reached its oversold zone, bears might have a hard time pushing gold significantly below US$1,900.Overall, the daily chart is slightly oversold, and gold might start a bounce soon. Conclusion: Potential recovery to approx. US$2,000After a strong rally and a steep pullback, the gold market is likely in the process of reordering. While the weekly timeframe points to a correction, the oversold daily chart points to an immediate bounce. Given these contradictory signals, investors and especially traders are well advised to exercise patience and caution in the coming days, weeks, and months. If gold has entered a corrective cycle, it could easily take until the early to mid-summer before a sustainable new up-trend might emerge.Alternative super bullish scenarioAlternatively, and this of course is still a possible scenario, the breakout from the large “cup and handle” pattern is just getting started. In this very bullish case, gold is in the process of breaking out above US$2,100 to finally complete the very large “cup and handle” pattern, which has been developing for 11 years! Obviously, the sky would then be the limit.To summarize, gold is getting really bullish back above US$2,030. On the other hand, below $US1,895 the bears would be in control. In between those two numbers, the odds favor a bounce towards US$1,960 and maybe USD$2,000.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|March 19th, 2022|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bearish, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, Gold consolidation, gold fundamentals, Gold sideways, precious metals, Reyna Gold|0 Commentshttps://www.midastouch-consulting.com/gold-chartbook-19032022-potential-recovery-to-approx-us2000About the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
Can Bitcoin (BTC) Become An Alternative To... Gold? BTC Increased By 6.3% And Reached Ca. $41.3k

Can Bitcoin (BTC) Become An Alternative To... Gold? BTC Increased By 6.3% And Reached Ca. $41.3k

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 21.03.2022 09:33
Bitcoin gained 6.3% over the past week, finishing near $41.3K. The price retreated slightly to $41.0K on Monday morning, losing 2.1% over the last 24 hours. Ethereum has corrected by 2% over the same period but still added 11.6% to the price seven days ago. Other leading altcoins in the top 10 have gained between 7.3% (Polkadot) and 24.8% (Avalanche) over the past week. Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 7.5% for the week to $1.86 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index fell 0.6 points to 41.9% due to outperforming altcoins. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index rose 7 points for the week to 30 and moved into "fear" from "extreme fear". Last week turned out to be a good one for the crypto market, with bitcoin rising the most in six weeks. Last Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve meeting weakened the dollar and boosted stocks, which benefited all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, bitcoin has continued to trade in a sideways range of $38-45K for the second month, with a closer look marked by a sequence of declining local highs with bullish momentum fading near 42 in the last two weeks. The positive sentiment is supported by the 50-day moving average reversing upwards. BTCUSD broke it in a relatively strong move on March 16th, and it has been acting as local support ever since. The external environment in the financial markets remains mixed. Traders have tighter financial conditions due to higher rates and waning economic growth on one side of the scale. On the other side is the demand for purchasing power insurance for capital due to the highest inflation in two generations. Weighing these factors, Galaxy Digital head Mike Novogratz said bitcoin would continue to trade in a sideways range this year. He said BTC will resume growth and reach $500K by 2025 as inflation curbing measures are too weak. Piyush Gupta, chief executive of Singapore's largest bank, DBS, said cryptocurrencies could be an alternative to gold but would not be able to fit into the traditional financial system due to excessive volatility.
Crude Oil Rebounds, Gold Price Struggles | Oanda

Crude Oil Price Causes Mixed Feelings, BTC And ETH Go Up Again

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 22.03.2022 11:55
Despite some optimism seen across markets resulting from the potential of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, the oil market remains one of the most volatile with prices pulling back slightly after once again rising almost 8% at the start of the week and returning to a previous trading range. Brent pulled back after reaching a high of $115 and is back around $110 today while WTI remains close by as it hovers around $108 as traders await today's API inventory report which is expected to show a 1 million barrel draw. While these reports have not had the usual impact, as the conflict remains the primary source of volatility, it will still be important to see how US inventories are managing while gas prices across the nation continue to reach new highs and add further pressure on the average consumer while driving general inflation to increasingly concerning levels. While an unexpected increase in oil stocks could cause some short term relief, the prospect of several supply deals such as the one with Venezuela and Iran are what could provide some much needed reassurance for the markets as they combat the prospect of supply shortages. Crypto markets rebound as bitcoin tests major resistance While the crypto market has been mostly trading sideways since the sudden increase in demand seen at the beginning of the conflict, today we are seeing a rebound of the major currencies which is driving positive sentiment across the whole asset class. Bitcoin has broken through a key resistance of $42,000 while Ethereum has managed to return above the $3000 level and as has happened in the past, this sentiment was echoed across other smaller currencies as well with the total market cap now approaching $2 Trillion once again. Despite this optimism, as we have previously seen, any moves on this market could be short lived but could drive demand by retail investors while institutions continue to add to their positions in anticipation of mass adoption which has continued to increase throughout these price fluctuations.
EM currencies: growing polarisation

EM currencies: growing polarisation

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.03.2022 13:04
Since the start of the year, the performance of emerging market currencies mirrors what we saw in 2021, but with more polarisation. The Brazilian real has been the growth leader against the dollar since the start of the year, gaining around 13%. It is followed by the South African rand and Colombian peso, gaining just over 7%. Among the hardest hit is the Russian Rouble (-33%), but also the Egyptian Pound (-14%) and the Turkish Lira (-10%). In our view, this polarisation only promises to increase in the coming months.Commodity-exporting countries have benefited amid a global jump in energy and agricultural commodity prices. Brazil gets a chance to seriously boost its oil sales to the US amid a supply embargo from Russia. Though net oil exporters, the states must buy significant amounts of heavy crude to run their refineries. Until 2019, oil from Venezuela was used for the right blend, subsequently replaced by Russian crude. Now it is being replaced by oil from Brazil, which promises a significant increase in exports and supports the exchange rate of the Brazilian real.The South African rand is in demand, receiving dividends from last year's monetary tightening and a surge in metal prices since the start of the year. As most global markets look for alternatives to the Russian metal, the ZAR is enjoying demand from speculators in anticipation of increased exports from South Africa for political reasons.We may well be seeing a global reversal in the attitude towards commodity exporters' currencies, as even in the event of a military settlement, there is no expectation of a quick recovery of previous economic ties.At the other end of the spectrum are countries' currencies that depend on imports of oil and agricultural products. Egypt buys most of its wheat consumption from Russia and Ukraine, and rising prices severely damage the balance of payments. Egypt's central bank has responded by tightening monetary policy to suppress inflation. But such steps tend to hurt economic growth. Turkey imported almost all its gas from Russia and Azerbaijan and bought its wheat from Ukraine and Russia. Price jumps and supply-chain disruptions will be costly for the economy and cause increased pressure on the Turkish lira.In addition to the prospect of inflated import volumes, Turkey and Egypt face a severe drop in revenues from the tourism industry, as Russia and Ukraine have provided a significant flow of tourists.
Uncertain Rebound and Inflation Data: How Likely Is Bitcoin To Fall Again?

March 22nd, 2022, Crypto Chartbook

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 22.03.2022 19:44
Bitcoin´s time to go   Trying to pick tops and bottoms is honorable and a desirable goal. Nevertheless, there needs to be other insurances and principles in place. If an ideal spot passes or the market doesn’t provide for a low-risk entry or enough liquidity for an exit, one still needs alternate tools to participate in the market. Our quad exit strategy allows for position building and market participation that consistently extracts monies from the markets. Bitcoin, daily chart, keep calm and keep trading: Bitcoin in USD, daily chart as of March 22nd, 2022. Precision trading gets even more difficult in wartimes, when frequent and conflicting news events jolt prices alternating up and down. The daily chart above shows these jolts over the last three weeks of wartime. We can identify three low-risk long trade entry opportunities (green up arrows on double bottom price scenarios) and one short trading one (red downward arrow at a double top price formation). Our quad exit strategy takes on each of these trades a partial initial profit to mitigate risk, which allows the remainder position size to be the market’s money at risk only.     Bitcoin, weekly chart, pushing up: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 22nd, 2022. Zooming out to larger time frames is another way to avoid noise and see a trading scenario more clearly, and, as such, find “go times” with more accuracy. This weekly chart illustrates that entries and exits are rather entry zones (red and green boxes) versus a precise price level. The trader’s goal is to exploit within such a zone a low-risk entry spot on a lower time frame to get positioned. Regarding bitcoin, we find overall price behavior to be up sloping over the last twelve months, a bullish notion. And we find a high likelihood for the momentary entry zone (green box to the right of the chart). In other words, we are right now in a price zone where its Bitcoin´s time to go. Bitcoin, monthly chart, March closing price: Bitcoin in USD, monthly chart as of March 22nd, 2022. Suppose we further remove ourselves from the noise by electing a higher timeframe. In that case, we find a pat situation on the monthly chart, pat not for a more significant edge for prices to go higher up but for timing on when to enter the markets. Our statistics show that it will be essential on what price level the month of March will be closing. With a close above current levels (white line), we will enter a bullish buy zone. Yet, if prices decline from here in the last nine days of this month, the probabilities of an immediate price advance rapidly decline. Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart, Bitcoin´s time to go: Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart as of March 22nd, 2022. An additional benefit quiet charting provides in turbulent times is to think outside the box. While all noise points toward the most heated issues, finding a trading opportunity elsewhere might be best. In our previous chart book release, we exploited a great go time for bitcoin. Last week, we provided entry points (green up arrows) for rotating one’s gold into bitcoin. Using our quad exit strategy, the trader who wanted to not expose his money to a volatile fiat currency trading world could profit near ten percent on his first fifty percent of position size. We are now placing the stop for the remainder position size to breakeven entry levels. Bitcoin´s time to go: In war, the first casualty is the truth. Under stress, our minds insist on reason, clarity, precise calls for action. Unfortunately, even the best-informed brightest minds can’t find reliable data in times of war since the distortion field of media around the world is at a level where lies and propaganda outweigh facts and truth.  Luckily, a trader can, in these times, rely more heavily on charts. Charts always encompass the sum of opinion. Charts are consistently working as a reliable source to trade from.  The psychological aspect is hugely beneficial since a consistent bombardment of news and everybody’s opinion can get quickly exhausting.  Reduce news data consumption at a time when calm and levelheadedness is the most powerful tool for wealth creation and preservation, and the “go time” will reveal itself nearly effortlessly.     Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 22nd, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin Price Hits $42k, ETH And AVAX Have Decreased, Polkadot (DOT) Gained

Bitcoin Price Hits $42k, ETH And AVAX Have Decreased, Polkadot (DOT) Gained

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 23.03.2022 09:12
BTC rose 3.5% on Tuesday. At the peak of the day, the rate exceeded $43.2K, but by Wednesday morning, it rolled back to $42K, demonstrating a 0.7% correction. Growth without solid reasons? Bitcoin tested 19-day highs above $43,000 supported by stock indexes with Chinese equities predominantly pulling it. BTC rose sharply during the Asian session, adding about $2,000 in a few hours, although a corrective mood then prevailed. Bitcoin clearly doesn't have a reason for a solid establishment on the path of growth yet. Ethereum is losing 1% over 24 hours, while other leading altcoins from the top ten showed mixed dynamics yesterday: from a decline of 2.7% (Avalanche) to a rise of 3.8% (Polkadot). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 0.5%, to $1.91 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index fell by 0.1% to 41.9%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index added another 5 points to 31, although it remains in a "fear" state. BTC is ready for sharp swing At the moment, on-chain metrics are consistent with a bear market, Glassnode notes. The rise in implied volatility and higher leverage in the derivatives market point to the possibility of a sharp swing in bitcoin. However, the sell-off in "defensive" developed-country government bonds continues in financial markets as investors park their money in stocks and commodities that provide the best hedge against prolonged and high inflation. At the same time, there are no clear signs of an economic and financial catastrophe that could hurt stocks or commodities. The world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates plans to invest in one of the third-party crypto funds, pointing to the risks for fiat currencies, which lose sharply during periods of military and economic wars.
What Will Be The Impact Of Rising Rates On Stocks & Commodities?

What Will Be The Impact Of Rising Rates On Stocks & Commodities?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 23.03.2022 21:33
Investors and traders alike are concerned about what investments they should make on behalf of their portfolios and retirement accounts. We, at TheTechnicalTraders.com, continue to monitor stocks and commodities closely due to the Russia-Ukraine War, market volatility, surging inflation, and rising interest rates. Several of our subscribers have asked if changes in monitor policy may lead to a recession as higher rates take a bigger bite out of corporate profits.As technical traders, we look exclusively at the price action to provide specific clues as to the current trend or a potential change in trend. We review our charts for both stocks and commodities to see what we can learn from the most recent price action. Before we dive into that, let’s review the various stages of the market; with special attention given to expansion vs. contraction in a rising interest rate environment which you can see illustrated below.PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR STOCK PORTFOLIOWe are keeping an especially close eye on the price action of the SPY ETF. The current resistance for the SPY is the 475 top that happened around January 6, 2022. This top was 212.5% of the March 23, 2020, low that was put in at the height of the Covid global pandemic.The SPY found support in the 410 area at the end of February. If you recall (or didn't know), 410 was the Fibonacci 1.618 or 161.8% percent of the Covid 2020 price drop. Now, after experiencing a nice rally back, of a little over 50%, we are waiting to see if the rally can continue or if rotation will occur, sending the price back lower.COMMODITY MARKETS SURGEDThe commodity markets experienced a tremendous rally due to fast-rising inflation, especially energy, metals, and food prices.The GSG ETF price action shows that we recently touched 200%, or the doubling of the April 21, 2020, low. Immediately following, similar to the SPY, the GSCI commodity index promptly sold off only to then find substantial buying support at the Fibonacci 1.618 or 161.8 percent of the starting low price of the bull trend. Resistance for the GSG is at 26, and support is 21.A STRENGTHENING US DOLLARThe strengthening US dollar can be attributed to investors seeking a safe haven from geopolitical events, surging inflation, and the Fed beginning to raise rates. The US Dollar is still considered the primary reserve currency as the greatest portion of forex reserves held by central banks are in dollars. Furthermore, most commodities, including gold and crude oil, are also denominated in dollars.Consider the following statement from the Bank of International Settlements www.bis.org ‘Triennial Central Bank Survey’ published September 16, 2019: “The US dollar retained its dominant currency status, being on one side of 88% of all trades.” The report also highlighted, “Trading in FX markets reached $6.6 trillion per day in April 2019, up from $5.1 trillion three years earlier.” That’s a lot of dollars traded globally and confirms that we need to stay current on the dollars price action.Multinational companies are especially keeping a close eye on the dollar as any major shift in global money flows will seriously negatively impact their net profit and subsequent share value.The following chart by www.finviz.com provides us with a current snapshot of the relative performance of the US dollar vs. major global currencies over the past year:KNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, AND APPLICATION ARE NEEDEDIt is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and somewhat surprisingly, we entered five new trades earlier this week, two of which have now hit their first profit target levels. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/3/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/3/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 23.03.2022 19:52
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index fell by 5,664 contracts last week. This change is the result of a decrease in long positions by 6,264 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 600 contracts. The decline in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen. The increase in total net positions occurred in the New Zealand dollar, the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc. The significant growth in positions of large speculators in the commodity currencies AUD, NZD and CAD can be explained by the rising prices of commodities exported by these countries. A large number of options and futures contracts expired last week, which explains the large decline in open interest for each currency. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators Date USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 15, 2022 28380 18794 -29061 -44856 3653 -62340 17740 -5229 Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com The Euro date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 15, 2022 666010 202040 183246 18794 -72980 -40643 -593 -40050 Weak bullish Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Býčí         Total Change -19421 -11523 -601 -10922     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 18 794 contracts last week and they are down by 40 050 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 40,643 contracts and an increase in short positions by 593 contracts. These data suggest a weakening of the bullish sentiment in the euro. The open interest, which fell by 72,980 contracts in the last week, shows that the upward movement that occurred in the euro last week was not supported by a volume and it is therefore a weak price action. The euro continues to weaken under the influence of the war in Ukraine. Last week it returned to a resistance level which could be an opportunity to trade short in the event of a downtrend.  Long-term resistance: 1.1120 – 1.1150. Support: 1.080-1.0850. The next support is at 1.0640-1.0700.   The British pound date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 15, 2022 188323 32442 61503 -29061 -57989 -18540 -2005 -16535 Bearish Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish         Total Change 4316 2845 8301 -5456     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to -29,061 contracts and they are down by 16,535 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 18,540 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 2,005 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative while there is also their further decline. Open interest, which fell by 57,989 contracts last week, means that the rise in the pound price that occurred last week was not supported by volume and it is therefore a weak price action. Risk off sentiment due to the war in Ukraine continues to weigh on the pound and therefore the pound is weakening strongly. Although the Bank of England raised interest rates by 0.25% to 0.75% last week, it also warned of a decline in economic growth as a result of the war in Ukraine. The change in central bank rhetoric is a bearish signal for the pound. Long-term resistance: 1.3180-1.3210.  Next resistance is near 1.3270 – 1.3330. Support is near 1.3000.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 15, 2022 124521 24281 69137 -44856 -72573 4760 -28579 33339 Weak bearish Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish         Total Change -72392 5446 -29527 34973     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1     The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 44 856 contracts, having increased by 33 339 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 4,706 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 28,579 contracts. This data suggests a weakening of bearish sentiment in the Australian dollar. Last week we saw a decline in open interest of 72,573 contracts. This means that the upward move that occurred last week was not supported by a volume and it was therefore a weak move as new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar strengthened strongly again last week and reached a resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.7370-0.7440 Long-term support: 0.7160-0.7180.  A strong support is near 0.7080 – 0.7120.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 15, 2022 39200 21493 17840 3653 -14050 5718 -10314 16032 Bullish Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish         Total Change -19267 2288 -13063 15351     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 3,653 contracts last week and they are up by 16,032 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 5,718 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 10,314 contracts. This data suggests that there was bullish sentiment on the New Zealand dollar last week. Open interest fell significantly by 14,050 contracts last week. Therefore, the upward movement in the NZDUSD that occurred last week was not supported by volume and therefore the move was weak. The NZDUSD strengthened strongly last week and reached the resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.690 – 0.6930 Long-term support: 0.6730-0.6740 and the next support is at 0.6590 – 0.6600.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
$30 Trilion Crypto Market Cap!? Regulated Cryptocurrencies Might Increase Demand!

$30 Trilion Crypto Market Cap!? Regulated Cryptocurrencies Might Increase Demand!

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 24.03.2022 09:22
Bitcoin is trading above $43K on Thursday morning, gaining 2.5% over the past 24 hours. Moderate but steady optimism around bitcoin is the best breeding ground for altcoin buyers. Bitcoin is trading around the resistance For the last ten days, we have seen a systematic increase in prices, although with a very modest amplitude by the standards of the crypto market. Ethereum added 3.4%, other leading altcoins from the top ten are in the range from +1% (XRP) to +12% (Dogecoin). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 2.8% over the past day, to $1.96 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index lost another 0.2% to 41.7%. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed has grown by 9 points, to 40. This is still a fear zone, but already close to neutral territory. Bitcoin retreated from the resistance at $43K on Tuesday. However, on Thursday it is making attempts to gain a foothold above this mark again. The last rollback in this case could be nothing more than a tactical retreat of the bulls in order to develop growth with renewed vigor. Nevertheless, confidence in the formation of a strong bullish momentum will come only after BTCUSD fixes above 45 thousand, from where we saw reversals in February and early March. Moderate but steady optimism around bitcoin is the best breeding ground for altcoin buyers. It is clearly seen that their dynamics is now better than that of the first cryptocurrency. If this trend continues for a couple more days, the effect of a feedback loop may work, when the outstripping growth of altcoins will pull Bitcoin up. Market Cap may grow in 15 times Bank of America predicts that regulation of the cryptocurrency market will increase confidence and increase its capitalization by 15 times, up to $30 trillion. The former head of one of the divisions of Bank of America, David Woo, believes that bitcoin will face economic and geopolitical pressure after the launch of the state digital currency (CBDC) of the United States. China has already acted in a similar way, which has come closest to the introduction of the digital yuan. Thailand will ban the usage of cryptocurrencies as a means of payment from April 1. They declared that such payments have a negative impact on the financial system and reduce the effectiveness of the state's monetary policy.
Falling Japanese yen suggests a changing world order

Falling Japanese yen suggests a changing world order

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 24.03.2022 15:23
The collapse of the Japanese yen continues, and so far, there are no signs of a trend reversal. The rise in the Yen is often linked to capital flight from risky assets, and the weakening is a sign of increased demand for risky assets. But that explanation hardly fits with what is happening now. We likely see the start of a significant reassessment by the markets of Japan's position in the financial system. In a worst-case scenario, this may turn into a debt crisis in the Land of the Rising Sun and be an even bigger disaster for financial markets than the eurozone debt crisis of a decade ago.The starting point for the weakening of the Yen was at the start of February. At that time, equities were in demand as a haven for capital to maintain the purchasing power of investments. The flow into equities was interrupted by the war in Ukraine but accelerated in the last couple of weeks on signs that these events have hyped up the processes that were taking place before. And these processes are now most visible in the dynamics of the Japanese yen against those currencies where the central bank can respond adequately to inflation.Since the start of February, the USDJPY has risen by 6.5%, and almost all of this increase has taken place since March 7th, taking the pair back to levels last seen at the end of 2015. A much more impressive rally is taking place in the Aussie and Kiwi against the Yen. Since the start of February, they have soared by more than 12%. So far this month, the strengthening is the largest in 11 years for AUDJPY and in more than 12 years for NZDJPY.The interest rate differential game, which was so beloved by traders in Japan before the global financial crisis, has found a second life. Australia and New Zealand have the economic potential to raise interest rates, as they are experiencing a surge in exports due to the boom in their export prices. However, the situation in Japan looks considerably more alarming, as Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio has risen by 77 percentage points to 170% since the financial crisis. Permanent QE from the Bank of Japan has kept government debt costs down but doesn't solve the problem.In the last decade, Japan has turned into a net commodity importer due to its growing dependence on energy and metals and increasing competition from China and Korea. The exchange rate should act as a natural mechanism to stabilise trade in this situation.But this adjustment is difficult for debt-laden Japan because selling currency would de facto mean selling bonds denominated in that currency. Under these circumstances, the Bank of Japan will either have to openly accept that it will finance the government (i.e. increase purchases despite inflation) or soften QE. The first option risks triggering a historic revaluation of the Yen. The second option would deal a blow to the economy and finances by raising questions about whether Japan can service its debt.
Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Cryptos on the front foot as rebound turns into new uptrend

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Cryptos on the front foot as rebound turns into new uptrend

FXStreet News FXStreet News 24.03.2022 16:22
Bitcoin price set to touch $45,000 by tomorrow if current tailwinds keep supporting price action. Ethereum price set to rally another 12%, with bulls targeting $3,500.00XRP price undergoes consolidation as the next profit level is $0.90.Bitcoin price, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies are enjoying a calm week with tailwinds finally able to thrive without constant interruption from headlines about Ukraine or Russia. Markets are also starting to adjust to the situation, with no immediate or significant movements anymore triggered by headlines coming out. Expect to see more upside with several possible cryptocurrencies eking out the best week of the year thus far.Bitcoin price has a defined game plan with $44,088 as the target for today and $45,261 by the weekendBitcoin (BTC) price is on the front foot for a third consecutive day as the rally turns into a broader uptrend. The crucial thing will be to see where BTC price will close this week, as bears need to get weakened with several short squeezes and breakouts running stops from short-sellers. Despite being elevated, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still not near the 'overbought' level, providing enough incentive for bulls and investors to keep buying BTC price action.BTC price is set to hit $44,088.73 today, the level of the March 03 highs. If that is gained – and given the current tailwinds – markets will start to expect Bitcoin to eke out new highs for the month with still a week to go. This additional bullish element should help conclude a daily close above $44,088.73. A support test on that same level will trigger new inflows from investors and provide the needed juice to pump price action up to $45,261.84, topping $45,000.00.BTC/USD daily chartA tail risk comes from the big joint meeting today in Brussels, with Biden meeting NATO, the G7 and E.U. leaders. An embargo on gas is on the table and could roil markets if the E.U. decides to walk away from Russian gas supplies, opening up the possibility of further Russian retaliation in Ukraine. That would make global markets move back to risk-off mode, with Bitcoin price dropping back to support at $39,780.68, and intersecting with the green ascending trend line. Ethereum price targets $3,500 after bulls force a daily close above $3,018.55Ethereum (ETH) price is performing a 'classic long' trading plan today after bulls pushed a daily close above $3,018.55. With price action in ETH opening slightly above this level, this morning, the price has faded slightly back towards that same $3,018.55 level to find support and offer the opportunity for new bulls and investors to enter the market. Ethereum price will move back to the upside and continue its rally, which is currently looking more and more like an uptrend that could continue over a broader time frame.ETH price will therefore need to find support around $3,018.55 as the fade will need to be kept in check, as too large a fade could spook investors. Seeing as the current favourable tailwinds are quite broadly present in global markets, expect to see another uplift towards $3,200 and $3,391.52 depending on the number of new positive headlines acting as additional accelerators. With those moves, at least new highs for March will be printed and possibly for February, depending on how steep the rally can continue.ETH/USD daily chartThe risk for Ethereum price is that price action slips back below $3,018.55. That could open the door for bears to jump in again and run price action back to $2,835.83, which is the low of March 21 and the monthly pivot. An additional fail-safe system is the 55-day Simple Moving Average at $2,808.84 as an additional supportive factor to take into account.https://youtu.be/wgpCSH70SIQXRP price undergoes consolidation as the bullish breakout hits $0.90Ripple's (XRP) price has bears and bulls being pushed towards each other as the bodies of the candles from the past two sessions grow very thin. This points to bulls and bears fighting it out and neither yet having the upper hand. Bears are defending the area above $0.8390 from bulls running to $0.8791, and bulls are trying to defend their support at $0.7843. With lower highs and higher lows, the stage is set for a breakout that, seeing the current tailwinds, will probably favour bulls, and result in a quick move towards $0.8791.XRP price is thus set to print new highs for March. With the stock markets having their best performing week for this year, expect to see even more tailwinds spilling over to cryptocurrencies and bulls targeting $0.9110. At that level, bulls will run into the 200-day SMA which will possibly be the halting point of the current uptrend as investors will need to reassess the situation before they advance. Where global markets are at that point and how far off a peace treaty is between Russia and Ukraine will determine if bulls will advance towards $1.00 in XRP price.XRP/USD daily chartAlthough several statements suggest it is unlikely, should Putin be backed further into a corner, the use of nuclear weapons could cast a dark shadow on markets. Expect a massive drop in equities and cryptocurrencies with those headlines coming out, where XRP price will fall towards $0.7843 or even $0.7600. In the first case, the historic pivotal level will provide support and further down, the monthly pivot is set to intertwine with the 55-day SMA, which should be enough to catch any falling-knife action. https://youtu.be/ZWrKMd2CiL8
Price Of Gold Nears $45k As Many Authorities Are Speaking Of Crypto

Price Of Gold Nears $45k As Many Authorities Are Speaking Of Crypto

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.03.2022 08:52
Bitcoin is trading above $44.1K on Friday, gaining 2.4% over the past day and 8.2% over the week. Increased inquiry for BTC Yesterday, the first cryptocurrency was in demand during the Asian and American sessions. The current values of BTC are consolidating in the area of 2-month extremes. In contrast to the previous test of these levels, this time, we see a smooth rise in the rate, indicating that the bulls still have some momentum. Also, over the past 24 hours, Ethereum has gained 2.4%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten have strengthened from 0.5% (XRP) to 7.4% (Solana). The exception is Terra, which is shedding 1.8%, correcting part of its gains in the first half of the week. According to CoinMarketCap, the total crypto market capitalization increased by 2.3% to $2 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose 0.1 percentage points to 41.8%. The Fear and Greed Cryptocurrency Index added another 7 points to 47 and ended up in the neutral territory. Cardano leads the last week in terms of growth among top coins (+39%) as Coinbase added the possibility of staking cryptocurrency with a current estimated annual return of 3.75% per annum. Countries assess the risks of cryptos Credit Suisse reported that Bitcoin doesn't pose a threat to the banking sector as an alternative to fiat money and banking services. The CEO of BlackRock, one of the world's largest investment companies, noted that military actions in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia will increase the popularity of cryptocurrencies and accelerate their adoption. Despite the rally in global stocks over the past two weeks, financial conditions in the debt markets continue to deteriorate due to rising interest rates and inflation. Largely because of this, El Salvador has postponed the issuance of bitcoin bonds in anticipation of more favorable conditions. Since very active steps to raise key rates are expected in the next year and a half, and Bitcoin is far from the highs, it is unlikely that such bonds will be issued soon. The Bank of England intends to tighten supervision of cryptocurrencies due to the financial risks that their adoption carries. However, the Central Bank urged commercial banks to exercise maximum caution when dealing with these extremely volatile assets.
Is There Any Gold in Virtual Worlds Like Metaverse?

Is There Any Gold in Virtual Worlds Like Metaverse?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 25.03.2022 12:15
Imagine all the people… living life in the Metaverse. Once we immerse ourselves in the digital sphere, gold may go out of fashion. Or maybe not?Do you already have your avatar? If not, maybe you should consider creating one, as the Metaverse is coming! What is the Metaverse? It is a digital, three-dimensional world where people are represented by avatars, a network of 3D virtual worlds focused on social connection, the next evolution of the internet, “extended reality,” and the latest buzzword in the marketplace since Facebook changed its name to Meta. If you still have no idea what I’m talking about, you can watch this or just Spielberg’s Ready Player One.The idea of personalities being uploaded online is an intriguing concept, isn’t it? In this vision, people meet with others, play, and simply hang out in a digital world. Imagine friends turning group chats on Messenger or WhatsApp into group meetups in the Metaverse of family gatherings in virtual homes. Ultimately, people will probably be doing pretty much everything there, except eating, sleeping, and using the restroom.Sounds scary? For people in their 30s and older who were fascinated by The Matrix, it does. However, this is really happening. The augmented reality technology market is expected to grow from $47 billion in 2019 to $1.5 trillion in 2030, mainly thanks to the development of the Metaverse. China’s virtual goods and services market is expected to be worth almost $250 billion this year and $370 billion in the next four years.In a sense, it had to happen as the next phase of the digital revolution. You see, we now experience much of life on the two-dimensional screens of our laptops and smartphones. The Metaverse moves us from a flat and boring 2D to a 3D virtual universe, where we can visualize and experience things with a more natural user interface. Let’s take shopping as an example. Instead of purchasing items on Amazon, customers could enter a virtual shop, see and touch all products in 3D, and buy whatever they wanted (actually, Walmart launched its own 3D shopping experience in 2018).OK, we get the idea, but why does Metaverse matter, putting aside sociological or philosophical issues related to transferring our minds into the digital world? Well, it might strongly affect every aspect of business and life, just as the internet did earlier. Here are a couple of examples. Famous brands, like Dolce & Gabbana, are designing clothes and jewelry for the digital world. Some artists are giving concerts in virtual reality. You could also visit some museums virtually, and instead of taking a business trip, you can digitally teleport to remote locations to meet with your co-workers’ avatars.Finally, what does the Metaverse imply for the gold market? Well, it’s difficult to grasp all the possible implications right now. However, the main threat is clear: as people immerse deeper and deeper into the digital world, gold could become obsolete for many users. Please note that cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are and will continue to be widely used as payment methods in the Metaverse.However, there are some caveats here. First, the invention and spread of the internet didn’t sink gold. Actually, the internet enabled gold to be widely traded by investors all over the world. Just take a look at the chart below. Although gold was in a bear market in the 1990s and struggled during the dot-com bubble, it rallied after the bubble burst.Second, the digital world didn’t kill the analog reality. Despite digital streaming of music, vinyl record sales soared last year, reaching a record high in a few decades. The development of the Metaverse could trigger a similar backlash and a return to tangible goods like gold.Third, some segments of the Metaverse look like bubbles. Maybe I’m just too old, but why the heck would anybody spend hundreds of thousands, or even millions of dollars to buy items in the virtual world? These items include virtual real estates (CNBC says that sales of real estate in the metaverse topped $500 million last year and could double this year), digital pieces of art or even tweets (yup, the founder of Twitter sold the first tweet ever for just under $3 million)! It does not make any sense to me, as I can right-click and download a copy of the same digital files (like a PNG file of a grey pet rock) for which people pay thousands and millions of dollars.Of course, certain items could increase the utility of the game or virtual experience, but my bet is that at least some buyers simply speculate on prices, expecting that they will be able to resell these items to greater fools. When this digital gold rush ends – and given the Fed’s tightening cycle, it may happen in the not-so-distant future – real gold could laugh last.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Large Currency Speculators sharply cut back on Canadian dollar bets

Large Currency Speculators sharply cut back on Canadian dollar bets

Invest Macro Invest Macro 27.03.2022 13:29
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the sharp pullback in the Canadian dollar currency futures contracts. Canadian dollar speculators cut back on their bullish bets by a total of -22,680 contracts, the largest change among currencies this week and one week after CAD saw bullish bets rise by over +10,000 contracts (bringing the speculator standing to a six-week high). This week’s decline dropped the total net speculator standing back into bearish territory (-4,940 contracts) for the first time in the past ten weeks, dating back to January 11th. The major commodity currencies (Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar) all saw pullbacks in their speculator bets this week after strong rises last week. The only currency markets with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (1,255 contracts) and the Euro (5,049 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-16,142 contracts), Brazil real (-2,599 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,195 contracts), British pound sterling (-8,183 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-1,133 contracts), Canadian dollar (-22,680 contracts), Russian ruble (-263 contracts) and Bitcoin (-190 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 51,952 72 29,635 77 -33,521 19 3,886 59 EUR 658,817 66 23,843 42 -46,378 63 22,535 12 GBP 195,712 36 -37,244 47 50,390 59 -13,146 28 JPY 248,221 87 -78,482 18 104,790 88 -26,308 0 CHF 44,911 21 -8,424 55 20,499 54 -12,075 28 CAD 124,090 13 -4,940 43 -7,565 54 12,505 55 AUD 127,767 28 -51,189 37 48,388 55 2,801 59 NZD 35,256 15 2,520 75 -2,069 27 -451 47 MXN 134,766 19 -18,051 20 13,919 79 4,132 61 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 70,832 68 41,564 91 -44,463 8 2,899 100 Bitcoin 11,274 61 0 94 -481 0 481 24   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,380 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.8 3.2 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.8 67.7 3.0 – Net Position: 29,635 -33,521 3,886 – Gross Longs: 43,561 1,665 5,434 – Gross Shorts: 13,926 35,186 1,548 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.1 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.9 18.9 59.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.1 12.1 -34.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,843 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,049 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,794 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.4 54.3 11.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.8 61.3 8.1 – Net Position: 23,843 -46,378 22,535 – Gross Longs: 207,051 357,492 75,970 – Gross Shorts: 183,208 403,870 53,435 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.3 62.6 11.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.6 7.6 -19.7   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -37,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,061 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.7 70.4 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.8 44.7 16.6 – Net Position: -37,244 50,390 -13,146 – Gross Longs: 32,753 137,829 19,316 – Gross Shorts: 69,997 87,439 32,462 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.2 59.5 28.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.7 24.3 -25.6   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -78,482 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,340 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.8 76.2 7.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.4 34.0 17.7 – Net Position: -78,482 104,790 -26,308 – Gross Longs: 36,676 189,100 17,749 – Gross Shorts: 115,158 84,310 44,057 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 18.4 88.2 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.2 14.3 -19.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,229 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.4 68.3 18.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.1 22.6 45.0 – Net Position: -8,424 20,499 -12,075 – Gross Longs: 6,012 30,663 8,143 – Gross Shorts: 14,436 10,164 20,218 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 3.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.2 53.9 27.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.7 4.0 -13.4   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -22,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,740 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.6 47.8 26.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.6 53.9 16.8 – Net Position: -4,940 -7,565 12,505 – Gross Longs: 29,314 59,269 33,406 – Gross Shorts: 34,254 66,834 20,901 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.9 54.1 54.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.2 6.8 20.8   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -51,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,856 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.6 59.4 20.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 58.7 21.5 17.8 – Net Position: -51,189 48,388 2,801 – Gross Longs: 23,747 75,916 25,508 – Gross Shorts: 74,936 27,528 22,707 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 37.4 55.0 59.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 32.0 -37.3 37.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 2,520 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,133 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,653 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 48.7 40.4 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.5 46.2 10.7 – Net Position: 2,520 -2,069 -451 – Gross Longs: 17,156 14,227 3,339 – Gross Shorts: 14,636 16,296 3,790 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.5 27.2 46.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.6 -22.8 21.9   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -18,051 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,576 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.1 51.1 5.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 56.5 40.8 2.0 – Net Position: -18,051 13,919 4,132 – Gross Longs: 58,150 68,880 6,851 – Gross Shorts: 76,201 54,961 2,719 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 19.6 78.6 60.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.2 7.5 5.5   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 41,564 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,163 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.6 15.3 6.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.0 78.1 2.8 – Net Position: 41,564 -44,463 2,899 – Gross Longs: 55,001 10,863 4,851 – Gross Shorts: 13,437 55,326 1,952 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.2 7.9 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.9 -21.5 8.5   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 0 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 190 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 74.7 2.9 11.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 74.7 7.2 6.9 – Net Position: 0 -481 481 – Gross Longs: 8,425 326 1,263 – Gross Shorts: 8,425 807 782 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.3 2.9 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.8 -23.4 -0.6   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Terraform Labs - Liquidity Pool, SINGLE - dApp Available - DeFi Update (28/03-03/04/22)

Crypto - A "Financial Bubble" And Fictional Backup?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 28.03.2022 08:39
Bitcoin rose 9.1% over the past week, ending it around $46,100. Ethereum added 9.5%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten rose in price from 3.2% (XRP) to 27.4% (Cardano). The exception was Terra (-0.4%). Bitcoin broke the resistance According to CoinGecko, the total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 9.9% in a week, to $2.14 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index added 0.2% to 40.6%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index rose 18 points in a week to 49 and moved from "fear" to neutral. Bitcoin rose for the second week in a row against the backdrop of strengthening stock indices. On Sunday, BTC broke through strong resistance around $45,000, which reversed its downward movement several times in February and early March. The technical picture favors further gains as Bitcoin climbed above the 100-day moving average (MA) for the first time since early December and heads towards the 200-day MA ($48,200). Cryptos found new drivers for the growth The FxPro analyst team mentioned a possible driver of the uptrend in BTC are rumors about the intentions of the non-profit organization Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) to invest in bitcoin. On March 27, it became known that LFG bought more than $1.1 billion worth of coins to ensure the stability of the Terra USD (UST) algorithmic stablecoin. The best dynamics among altcoins was demonstrated by Cardano against the backdrop of the announcement of ADA staking by Coinbase crypto exchange. Meanwhile, well-known crypto critic Peter Schiff again criticized the cryptocurrency, comparing it to a financial bubble and calling it stupid for people to save their savings from inflation by buying BTC. According to Schiff, cryptocurrencies have no real value and are backed by people's trust in the same way as fiat currency.
Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen And Dollar (USD) Interactions. Dollar Index (DXY) Looks Quite Fine. A Year Full Of Fed Decisions...

Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen And Dollar (USD) Interactions. Dollar Index (DXY) Looks Quite Fine. A Year Full Of Fed Decisions...

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 28.03.2022 12:44
There has been a lot of talk lately about the decline of the US dollar's reserve status. However, investors and traders should separate long-term trends from short-term market impulses. Reserve fund managers often prefer to refrain from active selling so as not to cause unnecessary market turbulence, so all reserve trends are stretched out over decades. As long as there is no real threat to the existence of the dollar and the solvency of the US government, managers will avoid making active moves to sell dollar assets. And all the revolutionary changes, such as switching to national currencies, will only result in CBs buying fewer new dollars. But it has little effect on the exchange rate. Right now, we are seeing the opposite picture, as the main competitors are under pressure. Investors are getting rid of the Japanese yen as the Bank of Japan accelerates its currency printing to buy bonds out of the market to stem rising yields. The local government is overburdened with debt, and the economy is still stalling. The only market solution is a devaluation of the yen, which would make exports from Japan more competitive and boost domestic spending. The single currency is suffering from a spike in energy prices and economic problems related to the war in Ukraine. Trading below 1.1000, the EURUSD pair is now where it was heading for the last six months before the pandemic. The medium-term outlook for the dollar is largely influenced by the extent to which the Fed will be able to implement policy tightening. More accurately, how Fed policy compares with the policy of the Bank of Japan, the ECB, or another major central bank. The Fed is clearly acting with greater amplitude, setting itself up for 7 rate hikes this year, which is far more than one would expect from Japan or the eurozone. Moreover, the US remains much further away from the war in Ukraine in business and trade terms than its biggest competitors, which means it can continue to benefit from capital inflows as a haven.
China’s economic outlook for the second half of 2022

Gaining Canadian, Australian And US Yields In Focus. Won, Baht And PLN Weaken

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 28.03.2022 14:41
March 28, 2022  $USD, BOJ, China, Currency Movement, German, Interest Rates, nuclear, Russia, Ukraine Overview: Yields are surging.  Canada and Australia's two-year yields have jumped 20 bp, with the US yield up 10 bp to 2.37% ahead of the $50 bln sale later today.  The US 10-year yield has risen a more modest three basis points to 2.50%, flattening the 2-10-year yields curve.  The 5–30-year curve has inverted for the first time since 2016.  European 10-year benchmark yields have risen 3-7 bp.  Tech stocks helped power the Hang Seng and Australia eked out a small gain, but most equity markets in the Asia Pacific region sold off for third consecutive session.  Led by financials, utilities, and communication, the Stoxx 600 has risen by about 0.75% in the European morning.  US futures are trading with a heavier bias.  The greenback is firm, with the yen again under the most pressure.  It is trading briefly above JPY125 in late morning activity in Europe, before pulling back.  The Australian dollar is the only major currency higher on the day.  Emerging market currencies are mostly lower.  The South Korean won, and Thai baht are hardest hit alongside the Polish zloty.  The jump in yields takes some shine off gold, which reached $1966 last week.  It is now straddling the $1930 area.  The $1900 area may offer important support.  The lockdown in Shanghai is sparking concerns about oil demand.  May WTI is off almost 4% after last week's 10.5% rally.  There is also speculation (hope) that OPEC+ agrees to boost output at this week's meeting.  US natural gas prices are little changed after rising in every session last week.  Europe's benchmark has risen by a little more than 8% today after falling 2.4% last week.  Iron ore is a little firmer, while copper is falling for the third session in a row.  May wheat is offered, giving back 2.4% after last week's 3.6% a rally.    Asia Pacific The Bank of Japan entered the market to reinforce the 0.25% cap of the 10-year yield.  Its first offer to buy an unlimited amount of bonds failed to draw any interest.  The second attempt had to buy JPY64.5 bln (~$525 mln).  The BOJ recognizes it is engaged in a struggle now and has pre-announced will be there for the next three sessions.  Separately, we note that according to the latest Nikkei poll, support for Prime Minister Kishida has risen six percentage points to 61%, with high marks given for handling the Russia's invasion of Ukraine.   On the one hand, China rejects the sanction regime against Russia, it says, because it is being imposed with a UN resolution.  On the other hand, reports suggest that Beijing and mainland companies are asking US officials for clarification with the idea in mind to understand what is permitted.  China and India purchases, for example, of Russian oil is not violating the sanctions.   There was thought that China would abandon its strict zero-Covid course.  Some suggested that the easing of restrictions in Hong Kong could be a prelude to a change by Beijing.  However, that does not appear to be the case.  Yesterday, Beijing announced a lockdown of Shanghai, China's largest city (population estimated around 25 mln).  The eastern half of city will be locked down for four days starting today.  This covers the financial district.  The purpose is mass testing.  The western half of the city will be locked down as of April 1.  Residents will be barred from leaving home and public transportation and ride-hailing services will be halted. A record 5500 cases were said to have been reported on Saturday. Recall that earlier this month, Shenzhen, an important tech hub was locked down. China is taking a new initiative though that has not been widely reported. It appears that China and the Solomon Islands are close to a security pact.  The leaked documents suggest that the pact could lead to a Chinese military presence there.  The Solomon Islands did not confirm the leaked details but did acknowledge that it was broadening out its security arrangements and China would be included in the changes.  This is a blow to Australia, which had seemingly secured the strategically located country into the Western alliance.  Solomon Islands had abandoned Huawei in 2018 and struck an agreement with Australia to build a 2500-mile internet cable to it. Last year, Australia sent some police to help quell riots in Honiara, the capital of the Solomon Islands, over economic problems, and anti-Chinese sentiment.  Yet, China has been making inroads.  For example, in 2019, Honiara dropped its recognition of Taiwan.  The US has acted belatedly.  Its embassy was closed in 1993 and not re-opened until last month.  As the map here shows, a Chinese presence in the Solomon Islands would compromise Australia's security.     The BOJ's defense of its Yield Curve Control policy in the face of surging global yields and especially US rates keeps the yen on the defensive.  The yen edged higher at the end of last week for the first time in six sessions, but its losses have accelerated today.  As we have noted the last significant high was in 2015 and then the greenback reached about JPY125.85. The notable high before that was in 2002, a little above JPY135.  The Australian dollar is firm.  It posted a marginal new five-month high near $0.7540.  It is approaching last October's high by $0.7550.  It is the fifth consecutive advance, if sustained, and it would be the ninth gain in the past 10 sessions.  The positive terms-of-trade shock seems to the be chief driver.  A pre-election due first thing Wednesday in Canberra is expected to include a cut in the fuel tax for six months, support for first-time home buyers, and boost funds for roads and rails.  The election is expected to be called by late May.  The greenback gapped higher against the Chinese yuan, reaching a little more than CNY6.3810, but has subsequently trended lower to fill the nearly fill the gap (the pre-weekend high) by CNY6.3680.  The PBOC's reference rate for the dollar was lower than the Bloomberg survey anticipated (CNY6.3732 vs. CNY6.3740).    Europe In an unexpected turn of events, Germany's Economic Minister Habeck, a member of the Green Party, suggested that he is open to re-examining the decision to close the county's remaining three nuclear plants later this year.  Previously, the Greens and Habeck ruled out this option.  Still, the surge in energy prices and the belated efforts to reduce its dependence on Russia is pushing the pragmatic Greens (realos) in this direction.  Merkel's push to close the nuclear energy plants after Japan's nuclear accident in 2011 resulting in increased reliance on Russia and spurred the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.  Among the scenarios that were bandied about before Russia's invasion of Ukraine was that it could pursue a limited objective of securing the entire regional claims Donetsk and Luhansk.  Since the war began, Western sources has played up different scenarios, one of total occupation of Ukraine.  The narrative it tells now is that after having suffered some significant setbacks, for which the higher range of estimates suggest Russia has lost as many soldiers (15k) in Ukraine as it did in 10 years in Afghanistan.  Russia admits to less than a tenth of those estimated deaths in Ukraine.  Even taking into account the number of injuries inflicted, the lower bottom of NATO's range is (7k).  It is quite clear that both sides have it in their interest to, shall we say, see what they want.  Still, the point now is that Russia's 1st Deputy General of the Chief of Staff suggested Russian forces will focus on gaining the full control of the Luhansk, for which it may be nearly there, and Donetsk, which is thought to be a little more than half secured.  The idea is that when the territory is militarily secure, a referendum would be held to formally join Russia.  Strategically, a land-bridge to Crimea will also be secured.   The euro was sold to an eight-day low near $1.0945 after holding above $1.0960 last week.  It popped up in early European turnover to the session of just below $1.10.  That is an important level in the coming days, with large options expiring there.  The nearly 585 mln euro expiry today is the smallest.  Tomorrow's expiring options are for almost 2.5 bln euros and the same for Wednesday ahead of Thursday's nearly 2.9 bln euro expirations.  If the upside is blocked, look for a test on $1.09 and below there is this month's low slightly ahead of $1.08.  Sterling is testing last week's low by $1.3120.  A break targets the $1.3070 area, and possibly $1.30, which was seen in the middle of the month. It last traded below there in late 2020, when it found a base around $1.2880.    America The US Treasury indicated that Russia could use frozen funds to make debt payments until May 25.   Next Monday, there is a $2.2 bln debt servicing payment due.  Some covenants allow for the rouble payments, but these reportedly do not.  After May 25, it needs to raise money other ways, including selling its oil and gas.  Over the weekend, President Biden implied relations with Russia cannot be normalized while Putin is in control.  It was later walked back by Secretary of State Blinken.  However, with the US claiming Putin is a war criminal, it is hard not to conclude that the US seeks regime change.  Some might find the US assertion of war crimes more powerful and compelling if Washington or Moscow were signatory members of the International Court of Justice.  If you are keeping records of such things, Beijing is not a member either.  The ICJ does not have authority over non-members.   President Biden is struggling in the polls.  His support is around 40%, near the levels that Trump experienced at the same time of his presidency.  One poll found that some 70% have little confidence in his handling of Russia and the war.  This suggests that his base has also softened.  Meanwhile, Biden is expected to unveil new budget proposals, which will include record spending for "peace" time.  He is expected to formally endorse the previous Senate Democrat proposal for a "billionaires' tax that would be extended to unrealized gains.  It is said to raise $360 bln over the next 10 years.  At the same time, without the Covid-related spending and income replaces, the budget deficit will be projected to fall.  The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey has the budget deficit falling to 5.1% of GDP this year form 10.8% last.   Lastly, there seems to be a misunderstanding about trend growth in the US.  Some observers talk about a growth recession as the most likely or best outcome that can be anticipated.  Yet the 2% pace or so bandied about can hardly be called a "growth recession” because for the Fed this would simply be a return to trend growth.  The Fed estimates that the long-term growth rate is 1.8%-2.0%.   On tap today is the US February advanced goods trade balance.  It was a record deficit in January.  Wholesale and retail inventories are also due.  Retail inventories rose by an average of 2.3% a month in Q4 21.  They are expected to have risen by about 1.4% after January's 1.9% increase.  Wholesale inventories rose by an average of 2.2% in Q4 21.   They are rising at about half that pace in the first two months of Q1 22.  We have noted that the inventory cycle is maturing, and it will not provide the tailwind as it did previously, and especially in Q4 21. The Dallas manufacturing survey is expected to have soften a little.     The US dollar has a nine-day drop in tow against the Canadian dollar coming into today's session.  It is pinned near the pre-weekend low around CAD1.2465.  It has not been above CAD1.2505 today.  We anticipate some near-term consolidation that could see the greenback trade toward CAD1.2520-CAD1.2540.  The US dollar is poised to snap an 11-day slide against the Mexican peso.  During that run, the greenback fell from around MXN21.06 to about MXN19.91.  It has been up to MXN20.12 today and since then it has found support ahead of MXN20.00.  We suspect near-term potential extends into the MXN20.20-MXN20.22 area.       Disclaimer
Crypto trading volume exceeds $100 billion in 24 hours as bulls flock to the market

Crypto trading volume exceeds $100 billion in 24 hours as bulls flock to the market

FXStreet News FXStreet News 28.03.2022 16:34
Proponents noted a 63.07% spike in the total transaction volume of cryptocurrencies across exchanges. Coinmarketcap data reveals a month-on-month increase of 4.75% in crypto trading volume. Bitcoin price crossed $47,000, fueled by $200 million shorts liquidated across exchanges. Bitcoin price is rallying, fueled by a frenzy of massive short liquidations on crypto exchanges. Proponents believe bulls have flocked to the market, as transaction volume exceeded $100 billion. Bitcoin price pushes past $47,000 in recent rally Bitcoin price crossed key resistance to hit a high above $47,000 in a rally fueled by the liquidation of millions of short positions. Analysts at the crypto intelligence platform Santiment observed a massive liquidation of shorts across exchanges at 1 pm and 6 pm UTC across crypto exchanges on March 27, 2022. Analysts argue that Bitcoin’s recent price rally to $47,000 was a response to liquidation in large quantities over the weekend. The average funding rate entered the long zone, where uncertainty among market participants increased. Therefore, analysts conclude that Bitcoin shorts have fueled the asset’s ongoing rally. Bitcoin and altcoin shorts liquidatedColin Wu, a Chinese journalist, reported a spike in the total transaction volume of cryptocurrencies, exceeding $100 billion over the past 24 hours. Wu referred to data from Coinmarketcap and observed a 63.07% increase in crypto transaction volume compared to March 26, 2022. The total crypto market value now exceeds $2.12 trillion. Historically, analysts have witnessed high transaction activity when large wallet investors flock to the market or scoop up crypto. Bloomberg analysts argue that Bitcoin looks overbought, compared to its 50-day Moving Average. Bitcoin price crossed key resistance at $45,000 in the current rally, erasing its losses for the year. FXStreet analysts have evaluated Bitcoin price and predicted the start of a new uptrend in the asset, as it crossed the $45,000 level.
Uncertain Rebound and Inflation Data: How Likely Is Bitcoin To Fall Again?

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Charts - Daily, Monthly, BTC/GOLD - 29/03/22

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 29.03.2022 11:35
Bitcoin wins the race   While Russia accepts hard currencies like gold, a move like this shows that the efficient attributes of bitcoin come to the forefront in times of crisis and are accepted for large business transactions between nations. Bitcoin, daily chart, price breakout: Bitcoin in USD, daily chart as of March 29th, 2022. Shortly after, president Putin confirmed this new way of doing business. In addition, China and Russia agreed to a thirty-year contract in the gas sector, transacted in Euros. We can see that we find ourselves in times of currency warfare and that it is essential to pay close attention to where and in what form we store our values. The daily chart above reflects this recent news in a price advance of bitcoin from US$37,567 to US$47,701. A 28% advance in just two weeks. Bitcoin broke through the sideways range, and this week shall show whether this breakout will be a successful one or not. In this case, the bulls have their odds much in favor over the bears.     Bitcoin, weekly chart, price left the station: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 29th, 2022. We have now left the entry zone (green box) compared to last week’s chart book and the published weekly chart. While the crowd now chases a trade, struggling with the typical inefficiencies of volatility breakouts (bad fills, slippage, being late), we are established in our positioning with the sum of 9 accumulated runners. The runners being the last 25% of each initial position. A fully de-risked or more precisely no-risk venture (see quad exit)! Looking at the weekly chart, we find the resistance distribution zones at around US$49,650 and US$52,430. We place additional entries if the price returns to the entry box top. Bitcoin, monthly chart, if March closes strong: Bitcoin in USD, monthly chart as of March 28th, 2022. The price has entered the confirmed buy zone from a monthly perspective. The dual chart shows the progression from last week’s anticipation to this week’s chart book release. Should prices within this week stay within the green box, all-time frames are in alignment. A picture of a confirmed bullish bitcoin trend. It is a rare occurrence and confirmation for larger time frame traders and a call to look for low-risk entries, if no sufficient exposure is at play yet. Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart, Bitcoin wins the race: Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart as of March 28th, 2022. Another split-screen view of a chart (a daily chart of the bitcoin/gold ratio) shows the progression of last week’s chart book publication and the situation right now. We had a triangle breakout last week and a substantial advance since then. The suggested rotation out of gold and into bitcoin was/is a successful one. The overall move was 30% in just two weeks. One can use this relationship as well to indicate bitcoins’ recent gain in strength and direction. Bitcoin wins the race: Change is never accepted lightly. We typically resist change and prefer an existing state of affairs as human beings. Nevertheless, we find ourselves in less than average circumstances with a worldwide pandemic, a never-ending war, and a general divide in opinions. Russia’s recent move towards approval of bitcoin shows that when the rubber meets the road, what works and is practical in times of crisis and need, wins the race. While governments around the globe feverishly try to get their electronic payment systems developed, bitcoin already finds its use spreading, and successfully so.    Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 29th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Currency Speculators continue Japanese Yen bearishness, push bearish bets to 20-week high

Currency Speculators continue Japanese Yen bearishness, push bearish bets to 20-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 02.04.2022 19:33
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the increase of bearish bets in the Japanese yen currency futures contracts. Japanese yen speculators raised their bearish bets for a third straight week this week and for the fourth time in the past five weeks. Over this five-week time-frame, yen bets have now dropped by a total of -38,944 contracts, going from -63,187 net positions on February 22nd to -102,131 net positions this week. This weakness in speculator sentiment has pushed the current Yen positioning to the most bearish level in the past twenty weeks, dating back to November 9th when net positions over over -105,000 contracts. Since the new year, yen speculator positions have averaged -70,432 weekly contracts, underscoring the sentiment weakness and compared to the 2021 weekly positions average of -44,182 contracts (positions averaged +17,100 weekly contracts in 2020). Japanese yen prices have also been extremely weak versus the other major currencies. Currently, the yen has recorded losses against all of the majors year-to-date and many majors currencies are trading at the highest levels since 2015 versus the yen. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (1,306 contracts), Australian dollar (1,583 contracts), Brazil real (1,052 contracts), Canadian dollar (3,405 contracts) and the Mexican peso (9,804 contracts). The currencies with declining bets this week were the Japanese yen (-23,649 contracts), Euro (-2,469 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,155 contracts), British pound sterling (-2,826 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-3,387 contracts), Russian ruble (-263 contracts) and Bitcoin (-271 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-29-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 53,967 76 30,941 79 -35,106 16 4,165 62 EUR 662,415 67 21,374 42 -47,348 62 25,974 17 GBP 224,365 54 -40,070 45 52,009 60 -11,939 31 JPY 239,698 82 -102,131 3 124,850 98 -22,719 7 CHF 44,327 20 -11,579 50 23,228 57 -11,649 29 CAD 147,421 28 -1,535 46 -15,518 48 17,053 64 AUD 143,007 39 -49,606 39 40,894 49 8,712 74 NZD 34,881 15 -867 70 -3 30 870 62 MXN 157,779 30 -8,247 24 3,286 74 4,961 64 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 78,894 79 42,616 92 -45,623 7 3,007 100 Bitcoin 12,024 66 -271 89 -411 0 682 28   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 30,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,635 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.3 2.8 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.0 67.8 2.8 – Net Position: 30,941 -35,106 4,165 – Gross Longs: 44,970 1,493 5,684 – Gross Shorts: 14,029 36,599 1,519 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.2 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.2 16.3 62.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.7 10.7 -21.9   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,374 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,469 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,843 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.2 55.0 12.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.0 62.1 8.2 – Net Position: 21,374 -47,348 25,974 – Gross Longs: 200,043 364,163 80,321 – Gross Shorts: 178,669 411,511 54,347 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.6 62.3 17.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.0 10.7 -19.0   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40,070 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,244 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.6 73.3 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.5 50.1 15.2 – Net Position: -40,070 52,009 -11,939 – Gross Longs: 30,624 164,519 22,187 – Gross Shorts: 70,694 112,510 34,126 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.1 60.4 30.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.5 29.1 -14.2   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -102,131 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -23,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,482 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.4 83.9 8.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.0 31.8 18.0 – Net Position: -102,131 124,850 -22,719 – Gross Longs: 15,274 201,190 20,392 – Gross Shorts: 117,405 76,340 43,111 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.5 98.2 7.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.7 19.1 -5.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,579 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,424 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.4 73.2 19.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.5 20.8 45.5 – Net Position: -11,579 23,228 -11,649 – Gross Longs: 3,292 32,430 8,522 – Gross Shorts: 14,871 9,202 20,171 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.7 57.0 29.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.3 4.9 -7.3   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,535 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,405 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,940 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.0 52.1 24.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.0 62.6 13.4 – Net Position: -1,535 -15,518 17,053 – Gross Longs: 32,429 76,738 36,771 – Gross Shorts: 33,964 92,256 19,718 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.2 48.3 63.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.3 -0.3 28.1   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -49,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,189 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.7 56.6 18.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 58.4 28.0 12.7 – Net Position: -49,606 40,894 8,712 – Gross Longs: 33,960 80,885 26,806 – Gross Shorts: 83,566 39,991 18,094 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.0 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.8 49.4 73.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 34.4 -42.4 48.0   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -867 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,520 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.4 44.5 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.9 44.5 8.0 – Net Position: -867 -3 870 – Gross Longs: 15,504 15,507 3,666 – Gross Shorts: 16,371 15,510 2,796 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.8 30.4 61.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.2 -18.5 40.7   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -8,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,804 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,051 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 47.6 46.9 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.8 44.8 1.7 – Net Position: -8,247 3,286 4,961 – Gross Longs: 75,081 73,952 7,577 – Gross Shorts: 83,328 70,666 2,616 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 2.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 23.8 74.2 64.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 6.4 8.0   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 42,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,564 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 67.3 26.2 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.2 84.0 2.3 – Net Position: 42,616 -45,623 3,007 – Gross Longs: 53,065 20,649 4,805 – Gross Shorts: 10,449 66,272 1,798 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.1 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.3 6.8 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.5 -18.9 6.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -271 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 0 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.9 3.2 10.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 83.1 6.6 5.2 – Net Position: -271 -411 682 – Gross Longs: 9,722 383 1,302 – Gross Shorts: 9,993 794 620 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.5 8.5 28.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.2 -15.9 5.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/3/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/3/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 03.04.2022 21:41
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 1,355 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions of 3,794 contracts and an increase in short positions of 2,539 contracts. There was a significant decrease in the total net positions of large speculators in the Canadian dollar last week, which fell by 22,690 contracts. At the same time, total net positions of large speculators moved from bullish to overall bearish sentiment for the first time in 10 weeks. The rise in total net positions of large speculators occurred only in the euro last week. There was a decline in total net positions in the other currencies monitored. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.   Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 22, 2022 29635 23843 -37244 -51189 2520 -78482 -4940 -8424 Mar 15, 2022 28380 18794 -29061 -44856 3653 -62340 17740 -5229 Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 22, 2022 658817 207051 183208 23843 -7193 5011 -38 5049 Bullish Mar 15, 2022 666010 202040 183246 18794 -72980 -40643 -593 -40050 Weak bullish Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish         Total Change -41281 -11922 3077 -14999     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 23,843 contracts last week, up by 5,049 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 5,011 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 38 contracts. These data suggest bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest fell by 7,193 contracts last week. This shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was not supported by the volume and is therefore a weak trend. The euro continues to move in a downtrend. It returned to a resistance level last week, which could be an opportunity to trade short.  Long-term resistance: 1.1120 – 1.1150. Support: 1.080-1.0850. The next support is at 1.0650-1.0700. The support can b also a value around 1.0900.   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 22, 2022 195712 32753 69997 -37244 7389 311 8494 -8183 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 188323 32442 61503 -29061 -57989 -18540 -2005 -16535 Bearish Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish         Total Change -2236 -11956 16743 -28699     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 37,244 contracts, down by 8,183 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth of long positions by 311 contracts and the growth of short positions by 8,494 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative while there has been a further decline. Open interest rose by 7,389 contracts last week. This means that the modest rise in the pound that occurred last week was supported by the volume and is therefore strong. However, the pound's growth was not significant. In addition, a pin bar formed on the weekly chart which would suggest more of a further weakening in line with sentiment. Long-term resistance: 1.3270 – 1.3300. Support is near 1.3000.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 22, 2022 127767 23747 74936 -51189 3246 -534 5799 -6333 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 124521 24281 69137 -44856 -72573 4760 -28579 33339 Weak bearish Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish         Total Change -68636 6424 -28128 34552     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 51,189 contracts, down by 6,333 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 534 contracts and an increase in short positions by 5,799 contracts. This data suggests a continuation of bearish sentiment in the Australian dollar. Last week there was an increase in open interest of 3,246 contracts. This means that the upward move that occurred last week was supported by the volume and was therefore strong as new money flowed into the market. The Australian dollar strengthened strongly again last week and reached a significant resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.7510-0.7560                                                                                                               Long-term support: 0.7370-0.7440.  A strong support is near 0.7160 – 0.7180.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 22, 2022 35256 17156 14636 2520 -3944 -4337 -3204 -1133 Weak bullish Mar 15, 2022 39200 21493 17840 3653 -14050 5718 -10314 16032 Bullish Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish         Total Change -19621 -12 -12898 12886     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 2,520 contracts last week, down by 1,133 contracts from the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 4,337 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 3,204 contracts. This data suggests that there was a weakening of bullish sentiment in the New Zealand dollar last week. Open interest fell by 3,944 contracts last week. Therefore, the upward movement in the NZDUSD that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and therefore the move was weak. The NZDUSD strengthened strongly last week and reached the resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.6980 – 0.7000 Long-term support: 0.6860-0.6920 and the next support is at 0.6730 – 0.6740.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
COT Currency Speculators boost Australian Dollar bets to best level in 37-weeks

COT Currency Speculators boost Australian Dollar bets to best level in 37-weeks

Invest Macro Invest Macro 09.04.2022 20:09
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further retreat of bearish bets in the Australian currency futures contracts. Australian dollar speculators reduced their bearish bets for a second straight week this week and for the sixth time in the past seven weeks. Over this seven-week time-frame, Aussie bets have improved by a total of +49,181 contracts, going from -86,694 net positions on February 15th to -37,513 net positions this week. This improvement in speculator sentiment has brought the current net position (-37,513 contracts) to the least bearish level of the past thirty-seven weeks, dating back to July 20th when the net position totaled -35,690 contracts. The speculator level for the Aussie has not registered a bullish or positive net weekly position since May 18th of 2021, a span of forty-seven weeks. Despite the bearish level of speculators, the AUD has been one of the stronger currencies over the past month and has been helped along by the outlook that the Reserve Bank of Australia will start to raise interest rates for the first time since 2010. The currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (911 contracts), Australian dollar (12,093 contracts), Mexican peso (9,157 contracts), Euro (5,996 contracts), Brazil real (2,910 contracts), Canadian dollar (8,458 contracts) and Bitcoin (27 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-1,698 contracts), Swiss franc (-814 contracts), British pound sterling (-1,688 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-702 contracts) and the Russian ruble (-263 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each currency where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-05-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 49,049 65 31,852 81 -35,194 16 3,342 53 EUR 663,589 67 27,370 43 -49,617 62 22,247 11 GBP 238,266 63 -41,758 44 57,779 64 -16,021 22 JPY 242,217 83 -103,829 2 125,224 98 -21,395 10 CHF 40,005 14 -12,393 48 20,743 54 -8,350 39 CAD 157,562 35 6,923 54 -30,414 38 23,491 77 AUD 148,898 44 -37,513 50 22,332 36 15,181 89 NZD 35,788 16 -1,569 69 171 31 1,398 68 MXN 172,712 36 910 28 -5,778 70 4,868 64 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 65,870 61 45,526 95 -47,961 4 2,435 93 Bitcoin 11,374 61 -244 89 -397 0 641 28   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 31,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 911 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,941 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.7 2.9 10.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.7 74.6 3.9 – Net Position: 31,852 -35,194 3,342 – Gross Longs: 41,038 1,417 5,243 – Gross Shorts: 9,186 36,611 1,901 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.5 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.7 16.1 53.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 10.3 -21.2   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 27,370 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,996 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,374 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.8 53.8 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.7 61.3 8.4 – Net Position: 27,370 -49,617 22,247 – Gross Longs: 210,914 357,140 77,946 – Gross Shorts: 183,544 406,757 55,699 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.4 61.7 11.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 13.7 -27.3   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -41,758 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,070 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.1 73.6 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.6 49.4 15.1 – Net Position: -41,758 57,779 -16,021 – Gross Longs: 35,873 175,429 19,923 – Gross Shorts: 77,631 117,650 35,944 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.9 63.9 22.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.9 28.2 -24.4   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -103,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,131 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.0 84.7 7.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.9 33.0 16.8 – Net Position: -103,829 125,224 -21,395 – Gross Longs: 14,583 205,209 19,190 – Gross Shorts: 118,412 79,985 40,585 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.4 98.4 10.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.7 21.2 -4.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -12,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -814 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,579 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.6 73.5 21.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.6 21.6 42.6 – Net Position: -12,393 20,743 -8,350 – Gross Longs: 1,860 29,392 8,694 – Gross Shorts: 14,253 8,649 17,044 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.4 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.3 54.2 38.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 1.8 -0.7   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 6,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,535 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.7 49.4 26.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.3 68.7 11.1 – Net Position: 6,923 -30,414 23,491 – Gross Longs: 37,325 77,906 40,906 – Gross Shorts: 30,402 108,320 17,415 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.4 37.6 76.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.3 -11.7 37.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -37,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,093 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,606 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.4 53.9 21.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.6 38.9 11.5 – Net Position: -37,513 22,332 15,181 – Gross Longs: 34,871 80,207 32,313 – Gross Shorts: 72,384 57,875 17,132 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.1 35.5 89.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 43.2 -55.1 66.3   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -867 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.1 44.3 12.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.5 43.8 8.1 – Net Position: -1,569 171 1,398 – Gross Longs: 15,428 15,863 4,311 – Gross Shorts: 16,997 15,692 2,913 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.6 30.7 67.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.7 -21.2 43.0   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 910 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,157 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,247 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.6 49.6 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.1 53.0 1.6 – Net Position: 910 -5,778 4,868 – Gross Longs: 78,728 85,690 7,698 – Gross Shorts: 77,818 91,468 2,830 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.7 70.4 63.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.8 6.4 2.8   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 45,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,910 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,616 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.7 16.4 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.6 89.2 2.9 – Net Position: 45,526 -47,961 2,435 – Gross Longs: 50,518 10,795 4,319 – Gross Shorts: 4,992 58,756 1,884 – Long to Short Ratio: 10.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.1 4.5 93.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.7 -20.4 -2.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 27 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -271 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.5 3.8 11.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 79.6 7.3 6.0 – Net Position: -244 -397 641 – Gross Longs: 8,811 437 1,322 – Gross Shorts: 9,055 834 681 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.1 9.6 27.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.8 -11.3 2.3   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 29/3/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 29/3/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 11.04.2022 06:40
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 29/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 1,306 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,409 contracts and an increase in short positions by 103 contracts. Growth in total net positions occurred last week in the euro, the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. There were declines in the total net positions of large speculators in the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. In the Japanese yen, in particular, the decline in total net positions of large speculators has been very strong. Over the past five weeks, total net positions have decreased by 38 944 contracts. The total net positions of large speculators are the most bearish for the yen in the last 20 weeks. This may be due to the Bank of Japan's continuing dovish monetary policy to support Japanese economic growth. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.   Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 29, 2022 30941 21374 -40070 -49606 -867 -102131 1535 -11579 Mar 22, 2022 29635 23843 -37244 -51189 2520 -78482 -4940 -8424 Mar 15, 2022 28380 18794 -29061 -44856 3653 -62340 17740 -5229 Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com   The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 29, 2022 662415 200043 178669 21374 3598 -7008 -4539 2469 Weak bullish Mar 22, 2022 658817 207051 183208 23843 -7193 5011 -38 5049 Bullish Mar 15, 2022 666010 202040 183246 18794 -72980 -40643 -593 -40050 Weak bullish Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish         Total Change -39632 -17856 8351 -26207     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 21,374 contracts last week, down by 2,469 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 7,008 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,539 contracts. This data indicates weak bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest has risen by 3 598 contracts in the last week. This shows that the upward movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by a volume and is therefore strong price action. The euro continues to move in a downtrend. Last week it returned to the resistance level from which it bounced downwards. Long-term resistance: 1.1160 – 1.1180 Support: 1.0950-1.0980 and the next support is at 1.080-1.0850.   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 29, 2022 224365 30624 70694 -40070 28653 -2129 697 -2826 Bearish Mar 22, 2022 195712 32753 69997 -37244 7389 311 8494 -8183 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 188323 32442 61503 -29061 -57989 -18540 -2005 -16535 Bearish Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish         Total Change 29063 -19527 22780 -42307     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 37,244 contracts, down by 8,183 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth of long positions by 311 contracts and the growth of short positions by 8,494 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative while there has been a further decline. Open interest rose by 7,389 contracts last week. This means that the modest rise in the pound that occurred last week was supported by the volume and is therefore strong. However, the pound's growth was not significant. In addition, a pin bar formed on the weekly chart which would suggest more of a further weakening in line with sentiment. Long-term resistance: 1.3270 – 1.3300. Support is near 1.3000.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 29, 2022 143007 33960 83566 -49606 15240 10213 8630 1583 Weak bearish Mar 22, 2022 127767 23747 74936 -51189 3246 -534 5799 -6333 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 124521 24281 69137 -44856 -72573 4760 -28579 33339 Weak bearish Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish         Total change -49571 22268 -14820 37088     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 49,606 contracts last week, having grown by 1,583 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth of long positions by 10,213 contracts and the growth of short positions by 8,630 contracts. This data suggests weak bearish sentiment for the Australian dollar as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but they increased last week. There was an increase in open interest of 15,240 contracts last week. This means that the sideways movement that occurred last week was supported by the volume and was therefore strong as new money flowed into the market. The Australian dollar moved near a strong resistance level last week. If it is validly broken then a further bullish movement may be seen.  Long-term resistance: 0.7510-0.7560                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.7370-0.7440.  A next support is near 0.7160 – 0.7180.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 29, 2022 34881 15504 16371 -867 -375 -1652 1735 -3387 Bearish Mar 22, 2022 35256 17156 14636 2520 -3944 -4337 -3204 -1133 Weak bullish Mar 15, 2022 39200 21493 17840 3653 -14050 5718 -10314 16032 Bullish Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Mar 29, 2022 34881 15504 16371 -867 -375 -1652 1735 -3387 Bearish         Total Change -29224 -9419 -17885 8466     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to - 867 contracts, having fallen by 3,387 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,652 contracts and an increase in short positions by 1,735 contracts. This data suggests that there was a bearish sentiment for the New Zealand dollar over the past week as the total net positions of large speculators got negative. Open interest fell by 375 contracts last week.  Therefore, the sideways move in the NZDUSD that occurred last week was not supported by a volume and therefore the move was weak. The NZDUSD strengthened strongly last week and got to the resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.6980 – 0.7000 Long-term support: 0.6860-0.6880 and the next support is at 0.6730 – 0.6740.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 5/4/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 5/4/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 11.04.2022 22:12
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 5/4/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 911 contracts last week. This change is the result of a decrease in long positions by 3,932 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,843 contracts. The growth in total net positions occurred last week in the euro, the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. There were declines in the total net positions of large speculators in the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. Interest rate decisions will be made by the central banks of New Zealand and Canada (Wednesday) and the ECB on Thursday this week. The published monetary policy of these banks will be the decisive driver for the NZD, the CAD and the EUR this week. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Apr 05, 2022 31852 27370 -41758 -37513 -1569 -103829 6923 -12393 Mar 29, 2022 30941 21374 -40070 -49606 -867 -102131 1535 -11579 Mar 22, 2022 29635 23843 -37244 -51189 2520 -78482 -4940 -8424 Mar 15, 2022 28380 18794 -29061 -44856 3653 -62340 17740 -5229 Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com   The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Apr 05, 2022 663589 210914 183544 27370 1174 10871 4875 5996 Bullish Mar 29, 2022 662415 200043 178669 21374 3598 -7008 -4539 2469 Weak bullish Mar 22, 2022 658817 207051 183208 23843 -7193 5011 -38 5049 Bullish Mar 15, 2022 666010 202040 183246 18794 -72980 -40643 -593 -40050 Weak bullish Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish         Total change -33093 -3281 28655 -31936     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1 The total net positions of large speculators reached 27 370 contracts last week and they were up by 5 996 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 10,871 contracts and an increase in short positions by 4,875 contracts. These data indicates a bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest has risen by 1,174 contracts in the last week. This shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by a volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The euro keeps moving in a downtrend. Last week it again reached a strong support in the area around 1.0850. Long-term resistance: 1.0950 – 1.0980.  The next resistance is in the zone 1.1160 – 1.1180. Support: 1.080-1.0850   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Apr 05, 2022 238266 35873 77631 -41758 13901 5249 6937 -1688 Bearish Mar 29, 2022 224365 30624 70694 -40070 28653 -2129 697 -2826 Bearish Mar 22, 2022 195712 32753 69997 -37244 7389 311 8494 -8183 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 188323 32442 61503 -29061 -57989 -18540 -2005 -16535 Bearish Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish         Total change 49823 -6376 29573 -35949     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached 41,758 contracts and thez were down by 1,688 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 5,249 contracts and the growth in short positions by 6,937 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative while there has been their further decline. Open interest rose by 13,901 contracts last week. This means that the downward movement in the pound that occurred last week was supported by a volume and it is therefore strong. Long-term resistance: 1.3050 – 1.3070. The next resistance is in the zone 1.3270 – 1.3300. Support is near 1.3000. The next support is near 1.2900   The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Apr 05, 2022 148898 34871 72384 -37513 5891 911 -11182 12093 Weak bearish Mar 29, 2022 143007 33960 83566 -49606 15240 10213 8630 1583 Weak bearish Mar 22, 2022 127767 23747 74936 -51189 3246 -534 5799 -6333 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 124521 24281 69137 -44856 -72573 4760 -28579 33339 Weak bearish Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish         Total change -43681 23318 -23249 46567     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 37,513 contracts, growing by 12,093 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 911 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 11,182 contracts. This data suggests weak bearish sentiment for the Australian dollar as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but there was an increase in the previous week. There was an increase in open interest of 5,891 contracts last week. This means that the downward movement that occurred last week was supported by a volume and it was therefore a strong price action as new money flowed into the market. The Australian dollar formed a strong bearish pin bar last week. This could indicate further weakening of the AUD/USD pair. However, the pair is in a support area, so to speculate in the short direction it is necessary to wait for the pair to break this support and for a valid retest of the break. Long-term resistance: 0.7580-0.7660                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.7370-0.7440.  A next support is near 0.7160 – 0.7180.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Apr 05, 2022 35788 15428 16997 -1569 907 -76 626 -702 Bearish Mar 29, 2022 34881 15504 16371 -867 -375 -1652 1735 -3387 Bearish Mar 22, 2022 35256 17156 14636 2520 -3944 -4337 -3204 -1133 Weak bullish Mar 15, 2022 39200 21493 17840 3653 -14050 5718 -10314 16032 Bullish Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish         Total change -20848 -1915 -11897 9982     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached to - 1 569 contracts, falling by 702 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 76 contracts and an increase in short positions by 626 contracts. This data suggests that bearish sentiment has set in in the New Zealand dollar over the past week, as the total net positions of large speculators are negative and they continue to fall Open interest rose by 907 contracts last week.  It means that the downward movement in NZDUSD that occurred last week was supported by a volume and therefore this price action was strong. Long-term resistance: 0.6860 – 0.6880. The next resistance is near 0.6980 – 0.7030 Long-term support: 0.6730 – 0.6740.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
COT Currency Speculators drop their Japanese Yen bets to 183-week low

COT Currency Speculators drop their Japanese Yen bets to 183-week low

Invest Macro Invest Macro 16.04.2022 22:07
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further rise of bearish bets in the Japanese yen currency futures contracts. Yen speculators pushed their bearish bets higher for a fifth straight week this week and for the sixth time in the past seven weeks. Over the past five weeks, yen bets have fallen by a total of -55,971 contracts, going from a total of -55,856 net positions on March 8th to a total of -111,827 net positions this week. Speculator positions have now slid all the way to the lowest standing of the past one hundred and eight-three weeks, dating back to October 9th of 2019. This recent weakness in yen positions and the yen price has taken place while open interest has been increasing which shows an accelerating downtrend as prices have been falling as more traders have been entering the market on the bearish side. The speculator strength index is also showing that the Japanese yen positions are at a bearish extreme position with the strength index at a zero percent level (strength index is the current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme). The fundamental backdrop has been the major driver of yen weakness. The Bank of Japan has continued on with its stimulus program and has not indicated any plans to move interest rates off their near-zero level while other central banks around the world have put the breaks on their stimulus actions and have started hiking their interest rates to try to tame inflationary pressures. The yen this week hit the lowest level in twenty years against the US dollar as the USDJPY currency pair trades above the 126.00 level. The other major currencies have all hit multi-year highs versus the yen as well. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (11,690 contracts), Brazil real (603 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,280 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,235 contracts), Bitcoin (411 contracts), Australian dollar (8,798 contracts) and the Mexican peso (14,050 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-2,215 contracts), Japanese yen (-7,998 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,549 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-11,296 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Currency where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-12-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,836 78 29,637 77 -36,045 15 6,408 87 EUR 678,607 73 39,060 47 -60,750 59 21,690 10 GBP 246,152 68 -53,054 36 70,949 72 -17,895 19 JPY 245,403 86 -111,827 0 131,902 100 -20,075 13 CHF 41,231 16 -13,942 46 22,299 56 -8,357 39 CAD 155,390 34 12,158 59 -33,450 35 21,292 72 AUD 150,939 45 -28,715 58 17,876 32 10,839 79 NZD 37,585 20 -289 71 -429 30 718 60 MXN 175,905 38 14,960 34 -19,553 65 4,593 62 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 67,772 64 46,129 96 -48,954 4 2,825 98 Bitcoin 10,632 56 167 98 -439 0 272 19   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,215 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,852 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.8 2.2 15.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.7 68.0 3.6 – Net Position: 29,637 -36,045 6,408 – Gross Longs: 44,303 1,226 8,402 – Gross Shorts: 14,666 37,271 1,994 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.0 to 1 0.0 to 1 4.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.9 14.7 86.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.9 5.6 19.6   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 39,060 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,370 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 53.0 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.9 62.0 8.5 – Net Position: 39,060 -60,750 21,690 – Gross Longs: 221,645 359,853 79,165 – Gross Shorts: 182,585 420,603 57,475 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.0 58.6 10.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.9 9.7 -14.0   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -53,054 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,296 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,758 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.4 75.7 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 36.0 46.9 15.3 – Net Position: -53,054 70,949 -17,895 – Gross Longs: 35,514 186,343 19,803 – Gross Shorts: 88,568 115,394 37,698 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.8 71.6 18.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -38.0 33.6 -8.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -111,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,829 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.0 86.7 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.6 33.0 16.3 – Net Position: -111,827 131,902 -20,075 – Gross Longs: 9,925 212,850 20,022 – Gross Shorts: 121,752 80,948 40,097 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 12.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.5 25.5 -18.8   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,942 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,549 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,393 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.0 74.7 21.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.8 20.6 41.5 – Net Position: -13,942 22,299 -8,357 – Gross Longs: 1,642 30,798 8,742 – Gross Shorts: 15,584 8,499 17,099 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.6 55.9 38.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.3 1.6 -8.0   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,158 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,235 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,923 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.3 49.5 25.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.5 71.0 11.3 – Net Position: 12,158 -33,450 21,292 – Gross Longs: 37,724 76,922 38,796 – Gross Shorts: 25,566 110,372 17,504 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.8 35.4 72.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.0 -8.6 27.6   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -28,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,513 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.3 53.9 19.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.4 42.1 12.1 – Net Position: -28,715 17,876 10,839 – Gross Longs: 39,770 81,396 29,106 – Gross Shorts: 68,485 63,520 18,267 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.2 32.2 78.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 46.0 -52.2 49.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,569 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.4 45.9 10.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.1 47.0 8.1 – Net Position: -289 -429 718 – Gross Longs: 16,295 17,233 3,773 – Gross Shorts: 16,584 17,662 3,055 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.8 29.7 60.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 23.3 -25.5 30.2   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,960 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 910 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.4 48.8 4.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.9 59.9 1.7 – Net Position: 14,960 -19,553 4,593 – Gross Longs: 81,582 85,784 7,517 – Gross Shorts: 66,622 105,337 2,924 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.7 64.6 62.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.7 10.9 4.9   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 46,129 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,526 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.6 15.6 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.6 87.9 2.5 – Net Position: 46,129 -48,954 2,825 – Gross Longs: 52,624 10,591 4,496 – Gross Shorts: 6,495 59,545 1,671 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.7 3.5 97.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.2 3.3 10.9   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 411 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -244 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.2 3.6 10.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.6 7.7 7.4 – Net Position: 167 -439 272 – Gross Longs: 8,207 382 1,058 – Gross Shorts: 8,040 821 786 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 97.9 6.3 19.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.9 6.3 -3.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Currency Speculators raise their bullish bets for Canadian Dollar to 40-week high

Currency Speculators raise their bullish bets for Canadian Dollar to 40-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 23.04.2022 20:49
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the rising of bullish bets in the Canadian ‘Loonie’ dollar currency futures contracts. CAD speculators raised their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks. Over the past four-week time-frame, CAD bets have improved by a total of +26,166 contracts, going from -4,940 net positions on March 22nd to +21,226 net positions this week. These gains have brought this week’s speculator level to the most bullish position since July 13th of 2021, a span of forty weeks. This recent improvement in Loonie sentiment has been helped out by the hike in interest rates by the Bank of Canada (BOC). The BOC recently pushed its key interest rate higher by 50 basis points on April 13th and has in the past few days hinted that more interest rate rises were to come. The recent inflation numbers out of Canada were above expectations (6.7 percent) and according to Bloomberg, market participants have pushed their odds to 100 percent for another 50 basis point hike in June. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (2,943 contracts), Japanese yen (4,640 contracts), Swiss franc (2,492 contracts), New Zealand dollar (654 contracts), Canadian dollar (9,068 contracts)and the Mexican peso (6,704 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Euro (-7,759 contracts), Brazil real (-1,557 contracts), Australian dollar (-122 contracts), Bitcoin (-361 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-5,860 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-19-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,524 77 32,580 82 -35,893 15 3,313 53 EUR 675,939 72 31,301 45 -49,726 62 18,425 5 GBP 249,529 70 -58,914 32 72,889 73 -13,975 27 JPY 251,291 90 -107,187 3 129,842 99 -22,655 7 CHF 44,269 20 -11,450 50 23,051 57 -11,601 29 CAD 153,302 32 21,226 68 -39,338 31 18,112 66 AUD 147,309 43 -28,837 58 20,800 34 8,037 72 NZD 41,098 26 365 72 503 31 -868 42 MXN 165,403 33 21,664 37 -26,214 62 4,550 62 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 70,553 68 44,572 94 -47,063 5 2,491 94 Bitcoin 11,276 61 -194 90 -175 0 369 21   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 32,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,637 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.6 3.3 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.9 69.1 3.5 – Net Position: 32,580 -35,893 3,313 – Gross Longs: 46,685 1,778 5,198 – Gross Shorts: 14,105 37,671 1,885 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 82.0 15.0 52.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 3.3 -5.8   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,060 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 53.7 11.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.1 61.0 8.7 – Net Position: 31,301 -49,726 18,425 – Gross Longs: 221,003 362,930 76,939 – Gross Shorts: 189,702 412,656 58,514 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.6 61.9 4.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.5 9.7 -10.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -58,914 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,860 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,054 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.8 74.6 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.4 45.4 14.4 – Net Position: -58,914 72,889 -13,975 – Gross Longs: 36,811 186,134 21,987 – Gross Shorts: 95,725 113,245 35,962 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.6 72.8 26.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -33.4 28.1 -2.2   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -107,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,640 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -111,827 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.1 86.0 8.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.7 34.3 17.3 – Net Position: -107,187 129,842 -22,655 – Gross Longs: 12,723 216,101 20,761 – Gross Shorts: 119,910 86,259 43,416 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.9 99.0 7.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -31.6 25.9 -3.8   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,450 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,492 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,942 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.6 71.7 21.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.4 19.6 47.9 – Net Position: -11,450 23,051 -11,601 – Gross Longs: 2,900 31,735 9,599 – Gross Shorts: 14,350 8,684 21,200 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.0 56.8 29.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.0 1.3 1.8   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,226 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,158 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.7 45.0 24.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.9 70.7 12.8 – Net Position: 21,226 -39,338 18,112 – Gross Longs: 44,063 68,989 37,784 – Gross Shorts: 22,837 108,327 19,672 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.7 31.1 65.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.4 -17.2 20.4   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -28,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,715 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.6 53.8 19.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.2 39.6 13.7 – Net Position: -28,837 20,800 8,037 – Gross Longs: 39,201 79,208 28,257 – Gross Shorts: 68,038 58,408 20,220 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.1 34.4 72.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 45.8 -42.8 19.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 365 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 654 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -289 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.4 45.9 6.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.5 44.6 8.9 – Net Position: 365 503 -868 – Gross Longs: 19,081 18,853 2,797 – Gross Shorts: 18,716 18,350 3,665 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.9 31.2 41.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.4 -20.2 4.0   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,960 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.6 50.0 4.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.5 65.8 1.9 – Net Position: 21,664 -26,214 4,550 – Gross Longs: 73,710 82,643 7,701 – Gross Shorts: 52,046 108,857 3,151 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.6 61.9 62.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.4 12.1 10.1   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 44,572 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,129 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.2 17.6 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.1 84.3 2.5 – Net Position: 44,572 -47,063 2,491 – Gross Longs: 53,790 12,399 4,272 – Gross Shorts: 9,218 59,462 1,781 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.8 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.2 5.4 94.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.8 5.4 5.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -194 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -361 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 167 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 73.3 3.6 10.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.0 5.2 7.0 – Net Position: -194 -175 369 – Gross Longs: 8,263 408 1,155 – Gross Shorts: 8,457 583 786 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.2 27.4 21.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 19.8 4.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
The Scale Versus the Casino

The Scale Versus the Casino

David Merkel David Merkel 28.04.2022 07:55
Photo Credits: Jen and www.david baxendale.com with help from pinetools || The casino is exciting. The scale is honest and unrelenting. I want to give an update to one of the major concepts of Ben Graham, in order to make it fit the modern era better. Ben Graham said: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/831517-in-the-short-run-the-market-is-a-voting-machine quoted from The Intelligent Investor So let me modify it: In the short run, the market is a casino, but in the long run, it is a scale. Is this an improvement? Probably not, but speculation has become so rampant that it may be a necessary modification to change voting machine to casino. The voting machine makes sense, but typically we think of voting as being democratic. We only get one vote per person. Markets are different. Someone who brings a little money to the market will not have the same influence as the one who brings a lot of money to the market. Thus my analogy of the casino, though typically casinos will place limits on how much the casino will wager. They want to avoid random large losses so that they can live to extract money from rubes for many years to come. The winner can brag that he “broke the bank,” but the casino survived to play on. Bill Hwang and his CFO were formally charged with fraud today. What did they do? They synthetically borrowed a lot of money from investment banks to own huge amounts of a few companies. Their buying pushed the prices of the stocks higher, allowing them to borrow more against the positions. But eventually as the stocks they owned had some bad results, the margin calls on his positions wiped him out as the stock prices fell. The scale trumped the casino. The same is true of crypto and meme stocks. Cryptocurrencies require a continuing inflow of real cash (admittedly fiat money) in order to appreciate. If people stop buying crypto on net, and that may be happening now, cryptocurrencies will decline. The scale says crypto is a zero — no intrinsic value. The casino begs for more people to bring real money to buy fake money. That applies to meme stocks as well. You can throw a lot of money at a stock and it will rise. But for it to stay there or rise further, it will need increasing free cash flows to validate the value of the firm. Going back to crypto, it lacks any link to the real economy. Crypto will only become legitimate when you can buy groceries and gasoline at a fixed amount of bitcoin that varies less than the same price in US dollars. As a final note on the Scale versus the Casino, I give you Elon Musk. He borrows against his shares of Tesla to buy Twitter. He either did not realize or ignored the fact that he could lose his stake in Tesla if the price of Tesla falls enough. Do you really want the margin desk to control your fate? This may not totally impoverish Musk, but it is not impossible that he could the entirety of his holdings of Tesla in order to keep his holdings of the unprofitable Twitter. All it would take is for short sellers to push Tesla below $740, and then the margin desk starts selling his shares into a falling market. Momentum, aided by an agreement leading to forced selling. The market abhors a vacuum. So it is for those who assume that things will continue to go right for them.
US Close: Another strong employment report, Wages growth slows, Stocks volatile, Oil rallies, Gold steadies

US Close: Another strong employment report, Wages growth slows, Stocks volatile, Oil rallies, Gold steadies

Ed Moya Ed Moya 06.05.2022 23:33
US stocks appear to be on a permanent rollercoaster ride as investors debate continued signs of a strong economy alongside rising rates, which remains a drag on higher valuation companies. For Wall Street to remain fully confident in piling back into stocks, inflation needs to be showing signs it is easing and that is not happening yet. ​ ​   Market conditions look dangerous but some of these discounts are looking very attractive. ​ It seems that the base case is still that the inflation peak is in place and that the Fed will look to signal a gradual tightening path. Unless inflation shocks prove otherwise, the risk-reward ratios for some of the beloved mega-cap tech stocks are looking attractive. ​ It won’t happen immediately, but when the economy starts to show signs of weakness, that will give investors the green light to buy stocks.   Investors just can’t confidently buy stocks as too much uncertainty persists with what will happen with global growth and how far the Fed will take tightening beyond the summer. ​   NFP The US labor market remains strong as broadbased hiring continues. The economy added 428,000 in April, much more than the analysts estimate of 380,000, also matching the slight downward revision in the prior month. Wage pressures might be showing signs of easing as average hourly earnings ticked lower. ​ Still most signs suggest the labor market is tight and that wage pressures are not quite ready to post a meaningful drop. ​ ​ The labor market remains robust and that should keep the Fed’s half-point tightening on cruise control until the Jackson Hole Symposium.   Oil Crude prices just want to head higher as energy traders completely fixate over the looming European sanctions on Russian oil. ​ No one wants to be on the wrong side of a major crude supply disruption headline, so whatever oil price dips that happen will be short-lived. ​ US oil rig counts continue to rise, but that has not led to increased production. ​ The weekly Baker Hughes report showed oil rig counts rose by 5 to 557 rigs. ​   Gold Gold prices are still licking their wounds following the bond market selloff. ​ Eventually investors will need additional safe-havens, so gold might start to attract some flows if the dollar softens as the global bond market selloff extends. The dollar is slightly softer today, but that doesn’t mean it is ready to lose its crown. ​ Gold could still remain vulnerable to further downward pressure if inflation does not show further signs of peaking next. ​   Gold is trending right between the 50- and -200 day simple moving averages but still looks like it isn’t quite ready to rally. ​ Next week will be pivotal for inflation expectations and for Fed speak that could confirm their commitment to tightening by half a point per meeting until the Jackson Hole Symposium. ​   Read on Oanda This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Currency Speculators drop Euro bets into bearish territory on interest rates & low growth

Currency Speculators drop Euro bets into bearish territory on interest rates & low growth

Invest Macro Invest Macro 07.05.2022 14:13
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 3rd 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the continued drop in speculator bets for European common currency futures contracts. Euro speculators reduced their bets for the third straight week this week and have now trimmed the net position by a total of -45,438 contracts over this three-week period. This decreasing sentiment among speculators accelerated this week with a large drop of -28,579 contracts and knocked the net contract level back into a bearish position for the first time since the beginning of October 2021. The fundamental backdrop for the euro is one of weak growth and low interest rates compared to many of the other major currency countries. The Eurozone GDP for the first quarter of 2022 amounted to just 0.2 percent growth following a fourth quarter of 2021 growth reading of 0.3 percent. The war in Ukraine combined with surging inflation and weakening consumer demand has some banks believing a GDP contraction could be on the horizon while others see parity in the euro versus the US dollar as inevitable. Eurozone interest rates are forecasted to rise this year but they have been behind their major currency counterparts. The US, Canada, UK, Australia and New Zealand have all raised their benchmark interest rates over the past quarter and look likely to see more over the year, possibly widening the interest rate differential even more if the European Central Bank does not act. This week was a very rare week when all the currencies we cover had lower speculator bets including the Euro (-28,579 contracts), Canadian dollar (-11,852 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-6,676 contracts), Mexican peso (-5,503 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,259 contracts), Brazil real (-5,096 contracts), British pound sterling (-4,192 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,038 contracts), US Dollar Index (-808 contracts), Australian dollar (-865 contracts) and Bitcoin (-24 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-03-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,092 76 33,071 83 -35,684 15 2,613 45 EUR 694,926 80 -6,378 33 -24,586 69 30,964 26 GBP 268,496 82 -73,813 21 89,026 82 -15,213 24 JPY 254,813 92 -100,794 7 120,264 94 -19,470 14 CHF 49,385 31 -13,907 46 30,542 68 -16,635 7 CAD 152,779 32 9,029 56 -12,959 51 3,930 38 AUD 152,257 46 -28,516 58 34,225 44 -5,709 39 NZD 50,844 45 -6,610 60 9,879 46 -3,269 14 MXN 151,933 27 14,623 34 -18,552 65 3,929 60 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 61,549 56 41,788 91 -43,371 9 1,583 83 Bitcoin 10,051 52 388 100 -429 0 41 14   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,879 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.5 2.7 9.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.4 68.6 5.0 – Net Position: 33,071 -35,684 2,613 – Gross Longs: 46,264 1,439 5,296 – Gross Shorts: 13,193 37,123 2,683 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.5 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 82.8 15.3 45.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.9 -3.6 -13.9   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -28,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,201 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.0 55.1 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.9 58.7 8.2 – Net Position: -6,378 -24,586 30,964 – Gross Longs: 208,449 383,222 88,267 – Gross Shorts: 214,827 407,808 57,303 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.0 69.0 25.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 6.2 13.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -73,813 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,621 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL