crude

Gold and oil, former beneficiaries of geopolitical tensions late last week, have gone their separate ways, with the former rising 2.4% and the latter losing 5% since the start of this week. Brent crude rolled back below $90 and, at one point on Friday, was losing 2.3% to $89, despite still worrying reports of tensions around Ukraine and Russia. It has fallen below the local support of the past ten days and is now just one step away from a decline since the start of the month. While geopolitics remains a joker capable of playing, either way, the macroeconomic picture is working to cool the oil price. US commercial oil inventories rose last week against a seasonally typical decline. As a result, inventories are now 10.9% lower than a year earlier, although it was -15% in mid-January. Production stagnated at 11.6m b/d, but at the end of last week, there was an increase in the number of operating oil rigs from 497 to 516. New data will be released later this evening. Probably, we will see more evidence that producers have stepped up production, convinced of the strength of demand and record profits in many years at their disposal. Locally, the activation of extractive companies is playing into the price pullback from current levels. However, it is a factor in slowing price growth in the longer term, but not a failure. The vector of monetary policy is also worth paying attention to. Rising rates often derail speculative growth in oil. We saw the last two examples on this theme in 2014-2015 when oil collapsed by 75%, and in 2018, it fell by 45%. After those hard lessons, OPEC+ has worked much more closely to meet quotas, so we are talking about a correction rather than a new bear market for oil. Speaking of a local correction, we assume a pullback in the Brent price to the $85 area. That is the peak area in October last year and September 2018 and close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from December to mid-February. Deeper drawdowns are also possible if monetary tightening coincides with geopolitical détente and slowing demand. In that case, Brent might briefly correct towards $80. Positive signals on the Iran deal are also factors holding oil back. An agreement with Iran would signal an easing of some of the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and add around 1% to the global energy system, allowing the resulting shortfall to be digested and a smooth return to restocking for the world.

S&P 500 opening upswing gave way to more selling, but credit markets didn‘t lead to the downside on a daily basis. This tells me the plunge would likely be challenged shortly. As in facing a reversal attempt – it‘s that junk bonds for all the recent (and still to come) deterioration, will probably rebound a little next. Value already retraced part of Friday‘s decline – it‘s just tech that didn‘t yet react to the Treasuries reprieve. Good to have taken short profits off the table. The table is set for S&P 500 to rise, and for bonds to rally somewhat. And that wouldn‘t be the result of war tensions lifting up Treasuries, gold and oil. Red hot inflation, decelerating growth and compressing yield curve are a challenging environment, and the odds of a 50bp Mar rate hike are overwhelming, but the Fed‘s balance sheet is still rising – now within spitting distance of $9T. Sure they will take on inflation, but I continue to think that by autumn they would be forced to reverse course, and start easing. Fresh stimulus after markets protest during 1H 2022? Would be helpful for the midterms... The consumer isn‘t in a great shape as the confidence data reveal – and that‘s also reflected in the direction of discretionaries vs. staples. Inflation is pinching, and the pressure on the Fed to act, is on – its credibility is being challenged. Food inflation is high, and seeing food at home prices rising this much, is as surefire marker of coming recession as yield curve inversion is. And yield differentials are flattening around the world – quite a few central banks are more ahead in the tightening path than the Fed. Economy slowing down, stock market correction far from over (yes, in spite of the coming rebound, I‘m looking for lower lows still), and precious metals upleg underway – yes, underway, and especially our gold profits can keep rising - as I wrote on Friday: (…) With gold at $1,900 again and silver approaching $24, copper‘s fate is also brightening – the miners‘ continued outperformance is a very good sign. With crude oil taking a breather, the inflationary pressures aren‘t at least increasing, but don‘t look for the Bullard or other statements to defeat inflation – I‘m standing by the 4-5% official rate CPI data for 2022 (discussed in yesterday‘s summary). CPI might turn out even a full percentage point higher – depends upon the hedonics and substitution massaging. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 caught a little buying interest going into the long weekend – better days though look to be coming. Not a monstrous rally, but still an upswing. Credit Markets HYG is indeed basing, and will help stocks move higher next. LQD and TLT are already rising, and there is still somewhat more to come. Bonds have simply deteriorated too fast in 2022, and need a breather. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals fireworks continue – we‘re getting started, and $1,920 is the next stop. Kiss of life from the bond market reprieve comes next, on top of all the other factors I‘ve talked about recently. Crude Oil Crude oil is fairly well bid, but the war jitters are helping it out (as in staving off a bit deeper correction). As both oil and base metals are rising, inflation isn‘t likely to slow down (perhaps later in summer?) - black gold‘s uptrend isn‘t over really. Copper Copper keeps going sideways in a volatile fashion, and can be counted on to break higher – inflationary pressures aren‘t abating, and outweigh the slowing economy. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos did break down over the weekend, but the anticipated risk-on rebound fizzled out a bit too fast – as said on Friday, the bears have the upper hand now. Summary S&P 500 appears on the verge of trying to swing higher, and credit markets would be leading the charge as tech finally turns. Value had trouble declining some more on Friday already. Stock market upswing though wouldn‘t throw the precious metals bulls off balance – not too many weeks have passed since I was at the turn of the year predicting that gold (and silver with miners implied) would be the bullish surprise of 2022 – and for all the talk and preemtive tightening in the credit markets, we haven‘t yet seen the Fed move. Anyway, such a lag in moving the Fed funds rate higher, is normal these decades – we are a long way from the early 1980s when the delay between say 2-year Treasury and Fed funds rate move was some 2 months. Crude oil is likewise going to keep rising, and the same goes naturally for copper following in the footsteps. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 is waking up to fresh European news, and holds up well. There is no panic upswing in gold and silver, but crude oil and natural gas are up the most. As the U.S. markets are to open following yesterday‘s Washington‘s Birthday holiday, let‘s bring up the key details of yesterday‘s analysis: (…) S&P 500 opening upswing gave way to more selling, but credit markets didn‘t lead to the downside on a daily basis. This tells me the plunge would likely be challenged shortly. As in facing a reversal attempt – it‘s that junk bonds for all the recent (and still to come) deterioration, will probably rebound a little next. Value already retraced part of Friday‘s decline – it‘s just tech that didn‘t yet react to the Treasuries reprieve. Good to have taken short profits off the table. The table is set for S&P 500 to rise, and for bonds to rally somewhat. And that wouldn‘t be the result of war tensions lifting up Treasuries, gold and oil. Red hot inflation, decelerating growth and compressing yield curve are a challenging environment, and the odds of a 50bp Mar rate hike are overwhelming, but the Fed‘s balance sheet is still rising – now within spitting distance of $9T. Sure they will take on inflation, but I continue to think that by autumn they would be forced to reverse course, and start easing. Fresh stimulus after markets protest during 1H 2022? Would be helpful for the midterms... The consumer isn‘t in a great shape as the confidence data reveal – and that‘s also reflected in the direction of discretionaries vs. staples. Inflation is pinching, and the pressure on the Fed to act, is on – its credibility is being challenged. Food inflation is high, and seeing food at home prices rising this much, is as surefire marker of coming recession as yield curve inversion is. And yield differentials are flattening around the world – quite a few central banks are more ahead in the tightening path than the Fed. Economy slowing down, stock market correction far from over (yes, in spite of the coming rebound, I‘m looking for lower lows still), and precious metals upleg underway – yes, underway, and especially our gold profits can keep rising - as I wrote on Friday: (…) With gold at $1,900 again and silver approaching $24, copper‘s fate is also brightening – the miners‘ continued outperformance is a very good sign. With crude oil taking a breather, the inflationary pressures aren‘t at least increasing, but don‘t look for the Bullard or other statements to defeat inflation – I‘m standing by the 4-5% official rate CPI data for 2022 (discussed in yesterday‘s summary). CPI might turn out even a full percentage point higher – depends upon the hedonics and substitution massaging. What a long quote – let‘s update it with the premarket action. S&P 500 is still waiting with its potential upsing, dollar has gone nowhere really, and precious metals look like having a bright day today. The crude oil upswing shows that markets don‘t like the geopolitical news, and are likely to behave in a risk-off way of late (Treasuries, gold and oil up benefiting most). The internals of today‘s stock market action would be telling – I recently got an interesting question touching also upon rates and real estate: Q: I read your most recent newsletter with great interest: 1. You think the Fed would start to ease this fall? In your opinion, how long would that last?  Midterm would be done soon there after so would it be a quick few months then revert back to higher rates? 2. I’m asking question #1 as it would impact real estate. 3. You anticipate a “temporary” rise in the S&P this week? Are you thinking just a few days? I noticed 10 yr is going down. A: Thank you for asking. I'll take 1 & 2 in one go - I think they would change course latest autumn. So, now hawkish and raising, then turning to easing before midterms. Let's see first the damage this tightening does, and the degree to which they then turn dovish. As regards real estate, it's slowing down, homebuilders, XLRE... Headwinds would be stiffening, rates are eating into mortgages, but those ZIP codes where immigration into is high, would do best - but the overall, total real estate isn't an appealing proposition. When markets open, there is likely to be a little SPX rally off oversold readings. Sure, they can get more oversold - that's the way it goes during bearish episodes, which is why I'm not long. The trend for now is to the downside, so I would keep predominantly looking and taking opportunities to short. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 caught a little buying interest going into the long weekend – better days though look to be coming. Not a monstrous rally, but still an upswing. Credit Markets HYG is indeed basing, and will help stocks move higher next. LQD and TLT are already rising, and there is still somewhat more to come. Bonds have simply deteriorated too fast in 2022, and need a breather. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals fireworks continue – we‘re getting started, and $1,920 is the next stop. Kiss of life from the bond market reprieve comes next, on top of all the other factors I‘ve talked about recently. Crude Oil Crude oil is fairly well bid, but the war jitters are helping it out (as in staving off a bit deeper correction). As both oil and base metals are rising, inflation isn‘t likely to slow down (perhaps later in summer?) - black gold‘s uptrend isn‘t over really. Copper Copper keeps going sideways in a volatile fashion, and can be counted on to break higher – inflationary pressures aren‘t abating, and outweigh the slowing economy. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos stopped breaking down today, and the price action smacks of joining in the modest risk-on upswing, as unbelievable as it sounds. Summary Yesterday‘s summary is valid also today – S&P 500 appears on the verge of trying to swing higher, and credit markets would be leading the charge as tech finally turns. Value had trouble declining some more on Friday already. Stock market upswing though wouldn‘t throw the precious metals bulls off balance – not too many weeks have passed since I was at the turn of the year predicting that gold (and silver with miners implied) would be the bullish surprise of 2022 – and for all the talk and preemtive tightening in the credit markets, we haven‘t yet seen the Fed move. Anyway, such a lag in moving the Fed funds rate higher, is normal these decades – we are a long way from the early 1980s when the delay between say 2-year Treasury and Fed funds rate move was some 2 months. Crude oil is likewise going to keep rising, and the same goes naturally for copper following in the footsteps. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 had a wild swings day, and didn‘t rise convincingly – credit markets didn‘t move correspondingly either. The upswing looks postponed unless fresh signs of broad weakness arrive. Yesterday‘s session didn‘t tell much either way – the countdown to the upswing materializing, is on even though tech didn‘t take advantage of higher bond prices. That can still come.VIX though reversed to the downside, and the relatively calmer session we‘re likely going to experience today, would be consistent with a modest attempt for stocks to move higher. I‘m though not looking for a monstrous rally, even though we‘re trading closer to the lower end of the wide S&P 500 range for this year than to its upper border. The 4,280s are so far holding but as the Mar FOMC approaches, we‘re likely to see a fresh turn south in the 500-strong index. For now, the talk of raising rates is on the back burner – Europe is in the spotlight.Note that the flight to safety on rising tensions (Treasuries, gold and oil up) didn‘t benefit the dollar. Coupled with the yields reprieve, that makes for further precious metals gains – the bull run won‘t be toppled if soothing news arrives. Likewise crude oil isn‘t going to tank below $90, and remain there. Commodities can be counted on to keep running – led by energy and agrifoods, with base metals (offering a helping hand to silver) in tow. As I wrote weeks ago, this is where the real gains are to be found.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 volume moved a little up, meaning the buying interest is still there – convincing signs of a trend change are though yet not apparent. Should prices prove to have trouble breaking lower over the next 1-2 days, this could still turn out a good place for a little long positon.Credit MarketsHYG continues basing, and keeps trading in a risk-off fashion, which is why I can‘t be wildly bullish stocks for now. Stock market gains are likely to remain subdued, noticeably subdued – as a bare minimum for today.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals fireworks continue, but a little reprieve is developing – nothing though that would break the bull. The run is only starting, and would continue through the rate raising cycle.Crude OilCrude oil is fairly well bid, and doesn‘t appear to be really dipping any time soon. Oil stocks are preparing for an upswing, and would remain one of the best performing S&P 500 sectors. Tripple digit oil is a question of time.CopperCopper‘s moment in the spotlight is approaching as commodities keeps pushing higher, and base metals are breaking up. All of these factors are inflationary.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are attempting to move up today, and further gains are likely. I‘m though looking for the 50-day moving average in Bitcoin (corresponding roughly to the mid Feb lows in Ethereum) to prove an obstacle.SummaryS&P 500 didn‘t break to new lows overnight, and appears to be picking up somewhat today. The anticipated rebound might materialize later today, and would require bond participation to be credible. I‘m not looking for sharp gains within this upswing though – the correction looks very much to have further to run. It‘s commodities and precious metals where the largest gains are to be made, with the European tensions taking the focus off inflation (momentarily). The pressure on the Fed to act decisively, is though still on as various credit spreads tell – and the same goes for the compressed yield curve speaking volumes about the (precarious) state of the real economy.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

WTI is trading more calmly on Wednesday and is currently roughly flat in the $92.00 area awaiting fresh geopolitical developments. As geopolitical risk premia remains elevated, oil is likely to remain a buy on dips. A possible US/Iran nuclear deal, which would free up 1.3M BPD in exports, is a downside risk traders should note. After Tuesday’s choppy session which saw front-month WTI futures print fresh seven-year highs at $96.00 per barrel before swinging lower again, oil markets are experiencing calmer conditions on Wednesday. WTI is currently trading towards the top of mid-$90 to mid-$92.00 intra-day ranges near the $92.00 mark, where it is broadly flat on the day. Wednesday’s roughly $2.0 intra-day range compares to Tuesday’s intra-day range of more than $5.50. Crude oil markets are continuing to monitor developments regarding the Ukraine crisis as fears about a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine remain elevated and Western nations hit Russia with sanctions over its recognition of the independence of breakaway Ukrainian regions. These sanctions have so far been focused on targeting Russian banks and wealthy individuals, with US President Joe Biden on Tuesday making it clear that the US wasn’t yet to target Russian commodity exports. The geopolitical impetus for WTI to push above $96.00 and on towards $100, thus, is not yet there. But US officials have signalled that if Russia takes further aggressive action against Ukraine all options for further sanctions are on the table and this is a key risk oil traders will be monitoring in the coming days. “The prospect of more conflict in Ukraine should safeguard the geopolitical risk premium,” said one commodity analyst, whilst another warned that “There is a risk that Russia will retaliate to the sanctions by reducing deliveries of its own accord”. Thus, for now, it seems likely that dips back towards $90.00 will continue to be bought, as has been the case over the past two or so weeks. Eyes will be on a meeting of the UN General Assembly on Ukraine later in the day, which should generate fresh geopolitical headlines, as well as US weekly oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute at 2130GMT. Another theme at the top of oil traders’ minds is the prospect of a US/Iran nuclear deal. A deal would pave the way for the US to lift sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports. According to ING, this would ease concerns over OPEC+ spare capacity (or lack thereof). The bank said “Iran is currently producing at around 2.5mln BPD but is estimated to have a capacity of closer to 3.8mln BPD, therefore, over time there is the potential for 1.3mln BPD of additional supply to come onto the market”. “Nuclear talks in Vienna are reaching a sensitive and important point” said Iran's foreign minister on Wednesday.

S&P 500 reprieve that wasn‘t – the buyers didn‘t arrive, and the overnight military action sparking serious asset moves, shows that buying the dip would have been a bad idea. And it still is. Risk-on assets are likely to suffer, and I‘m not looking for a sharp, V-shaped rebound. The partial retracement seen in cryptos wouldn‘t translate to much upside in paper assets – it will likely be sold into as the bottom would take time to form. The safe haven premium seen in precious metals, crude oil and other real assets would ebb and flow, but a higher base has been established. The world has changed overnight, and recognition thereof is still pending.I think it‘s clear why I had been derisking as much as possible, wary of volatility both ways in paper assets, and betting instead on a mix of real assets. This has been hugely paying off to subscribers and readers likewise favoring gold and crude oil with some copper added for good measure.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis isn‘t how an S&P 500 bottom looks like – downswing continues with more volatility ahead.Credit MarketsHYG is going down again, and credit markets are turning risk-off – look for Treasuries to do relatively better next, with little impact upon stocks.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals fireworks continue, and the upswing got a poweful ally. Whatever retracement seen next, would be marginal in light of the developments.Crude OilCrude oil upswing can be counted on to continue, and oil stocks would remain among the best performing S&P 500 pockets. Black gold is though notorious for its wild volatility, and the coming days won‘t be an exception.CopperCopper upswing would take time to develop, especially now – but the breakout in base metals is on, the inflationary messaging is still there and thriving.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos aren‘t in a rally mode, but are attempting to put in a low. I don‘t think it would hold, the dust hasn‘t settled yet.SummaryS&P 500 is plunging, and attempting to base, but more selling would inevitably hit. The overnight dust hasn‘t settled yet, but the panic lows would not happen today. Even if it weren‘t for geopolitics, stocks were in rough waters for weeks already, in a serious, yields and liquidity driven correction, with a slowing real economy on top. For all the short-term focus, the buying opportunity would materialize only once the Fed turns – by autumn 2022. The best places to be in right now, are those presented below – precious metals and commodities – as inflation fires continue to rage on.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 recovered the steep losses as the shock was replaced with relief over the international response. Safe haven bids largely disappeared, and can be counted on remaining pressured – this concerns precious metals and crude oil. Credit markets – for all their downswing and forcing the Fed‘s hand through higher yields – have turned risk-on yesterday, but that got reflected just in the tech upswing as value didn‘t close the opening gap. But that would happen today as money flows out of the dollar hiding, and VIX can be counted on to stay much calmer than it was yesterday, in the days to come – that‘s what I tweeted late yesterday. Today‘s inflation data (core PCE) is going to take a backseat to geopolitics as uncertainty about where these tensions could lead, is getting removed in the markets‘ mind – especially as regards the international ramifications. Good to have taken sizable gold and oil profits off the table yesterday, well before the risk premiums were gone – fresh portfolio high has been reached. Remember that in times of high volatility, dialing back your exposure, your risk, is essential to proper risk management. Please have a good look at my style of open trade and money management if you haven‘t already so as to make the most of what I‘m doing. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Now, this looks a lot more as an S&P 500 bottom – volatility appears to be staying elevated but headed down next. Neutral to bullish outlook for today but downswings are likely to be repelled. Credit Markets HYG is marking the risk-on turn clearly, and volume was also solid. Credit markets won‘t be standing in the way of stock market upswing today, I think. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals ominous lower knot would have consequences for the days to come – but we have seen upswing rejection only, not a downside reversal. When miners catch their breath again, the move higher can continue. Crude Oil Crude oil upswing has been rejected, but the long base building goes on, and black gold can be counted on to extend gains even when the dust settles down. Copper Copper upswing would take time to develop, especially now – but the breakout in base metals is on, the inflationary messaging is still there and thriving – yesterday‘s words are still true today, but I am looking for a longer base building here than in crude oil. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are turning the corner, and the worst looks to be in here as well – yesterday‘s attempt to put in a low was successful. Summary S&P 500 turned around, and the bottom appears to be in. Unless a fresh and entangling escalation materializes (not likely), the markets are willing to shake it off, and erase yesterday‘s downswing. As chips (and international response) fall where they may, the tense air is being removed as markets abhor uncertainty the most. Risk premiums are evaporating, and until the Fed and yields come back into the spotlight, the odds favor risk-on muddying through ahead in the days to follow. The inflation chickens haven‘t though come home to roost, and that has continued bullish implications for real assets. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT energy data is the continued decline in the WTI Crude Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the WTI Crude Oil futures has decreased for five consecutive weeks and in thirteen out of the past fifteen weeks. The spec crude position has dropped by a total of -82,271 contracts over the past fifteen weeks and speculators have now pushed their current net positioning to the lowest level of the past seven weeks. These declines in speculator sentiment has brought the current speculator strength score level into a bearish-extreme standing of just 2.4 percent where the strength score measures the current speculator standing compared to past three years where above 80 is bullish-extreme and below 20 is bearish-extreme. Despite the speculator weakness, crude oil prices have shot up on the Russian invasion of Ukraine with WTI crude touching slightly above $100 per barrel late this week. Joining WTI Crude Oil (-9,052 contracts) with falling speculator bets this week were Brent Crude Oil (-30 contracts) and Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts) while Natural Gas (795 contracts), Gasoline (991 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (4,874 contracts) saw higher speculator positions on the week. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,058,132 29 339,041 2 -382,891 90 43,850 77 Gold 611,488 49 243,148 65 -269,722 35 26,574 40 Silver 163,745 29 30,302 53 -43,720 56 13,418 21 Copper 204,123 29 25,575 61 -34,754 36 9,179 78 Palladium 7,903 7 -1,429 13 1,118 83 311 63 Platinum 62,274 26 17,540 27 -22,887 76 5,347 37 Natural Gas 1,107,113 2 -130,629 39 95,974 61 34,655 67 Brent 215,908 52 -26,355 73 24,478 31 1,877 35 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 826,824 51 226,464 86 -196,755 20 -29,709 21 Corn 1,563,758 32 451,742 88 -410,962 13 -40,780 20 Coffee 252,688 24 67,791 98 -72,509 3 4,718 21 Sugar 857,376 8 75,246 52 -95,306 50 20,060 33 Wheat 379,308 23 -3,902 44 10,629 51 -6,727 69   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 339,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 348,093 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.5 36.1 4.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.0 54.7 2.8 – Net Position: 339,041 -382,891 43,850 – Gross Longs: 442,102 743,113 100,987 – Gross Shorts: 103,061 1,126,004 57,137 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.4 89.9 76.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.4 5.6 10.5   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -26,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,325 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.3 46.9 4.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.5 35.6 3.4 – Net Position: -26,355 24,478 1,877 – Gross Longs: 37,283 101,361 9,173 – Gross Shorts: 63,638 76,883 7,296 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.5 30.6 34.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.6 19.9 -23.2   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -130,629 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 795 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -131,424 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.9 43.8 5.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.6 35.1 2.3 – Net Position: -130,629 95,974 34,655 – Gross Longs: 241,913 484,856 60,026 – Gross Shorts: 372,542 388,882 25,371 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.4 61.1 66.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.4 0.3 18.3   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 63,587 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 991 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,596 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.3 50.1 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.0 69.3 3.3 – Net Position: 63,587 -74,709 11,122 – Gross Longs: 106,356 194,978 23,947 – Gross Shorts: 42,769 269,687 12,825 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.8 62.3 78.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -9.2 30.3   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9 – Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979 – Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210 – Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,041 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 65.4 29.1 1.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 94.6 1.5 0.2 – Net Position: -12,167 11,468 699 – Gross Longs: 27,191 12,091 770 – Gross Shorts: 39,358 623 71 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 19.4 to 1 10.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.9 37.4 44.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 36.1 -36.8 5.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has produced a climate of anxiety around global supply disruptions. Don’t expect it to abate just yet. After witnessing crude oil prices slipping on Friday (Feb. 25) – as some major players sold off their positions before the weekend, which was still marked by a context of uncertainty regarding the evolution of the current Ukraine-Russia conflict – lots of concerns remain over potential global supply disruptions from a strengtening set of sanctions on major crude exporting country Russia. The sanction that is likely to impact the Russian bear the most in the long term was taken by Taiwan in the weekend (under rising pressure from the West) to block the sales of electronic microchips to the Russian Federation. OPEC+ will meet this Wednesday (Mar. 2) during a surge in the two black gold benchmarks, with little hope, however, that their action will dissipate the feverishness of the energy markets. British oil giant BP’s shares fell by nearly 7% this morning on the London Stock Exchange, the day after the announcement of its divestiture from the Russian giant Rosneft, in which it held a 19.75% stake. Technically, the sturdiest support seems to be located around the $93.36-95.01 area for Brent and around the $89.54-90.45 area for the West Texas Intermediate (WTI), as we recently saw some bulls entering long trades around those levels. We could see prices rebounding onto these support zones one more time as volatility stays high. Figure 1 - VIX "Fear Index" The VIX (aka “Fear Index”) – currently trading around 30 – could spike again depending on how the situation progresses. Regarding risk management, it is always best to define your strategy according to your own risk profile. For some guidance on trade management, please read this article on how to secure profits. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 didn‘t correct much intraday, and the risk-on turn has continued unabated with value pulling ahead sharply – unlike the day before when the revesal came about because of tech. The dust is settling in the market‘s mind, VIX has indeed moved and the dollar weakened noticeably. That was the subject of Friday‘s analysis – the disappearing safe haven premium over many assets such as gold, crude oil and Treasuries (Treasuries though kept their cool the most, not losing the focus on Fed‘s tightening). Risk-on appetite returned to stocks with a vengeance, and market breadth has significantly improved – within the context of the ongoing correction, must be said. While we made local lows on Thursday after all, the upside momentum is likely to slow down next – this week would bring a consolidation within a very headline sensitive environment. It‘s looking good for the bulls at the moment – till the dynamic of events beyond markets changes. Inflation isn‘t wavering, and I‘m not looking for its meaningful deceleration given the events since Thursday, no. Friday is likely to mark a buying opportunity beyond oil and copper – these longs have very good prospects. Another part of the S&P 500 upswing explanation were the still fine fresh orders data – while the real economy has noticeably decelerated (and Q1 GDP growth would be underwhelming), solid figures would return in the latter quarters of 2022. That‘s also behind the gold downswing on Friday, which hadn‘t been confirmed by the miners – the very bright future ahead for precious metals is undisputable. And the same goes for crude oil as oil stocks foretell – the fresh long crude trade together with long S&P 500 one, are both solidly in the black already.. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Sharp S&P 500 upswing on solid volume – the gains can continue but their pace would slow down. Negative sentiment is departing stocks as the existing bad news has been priced in. The pendulum is swinging the other way now. Credit Markets HYG is confirming the stock market upswing, but bonds are remaining more cautious overall – it‘s that the focus would shift over the coming 2 weeks again to the Fed. The yield spread keeps compressing and the 2-year bond didn‘t stop pressuring the Fed. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals have corrected a little but the upswing goes on – GDX performance is a good omen. The decline in prices wasn‘t sold heavily into anyway – we‘re still moving higher next as the rate raising cycle start is soon here. Crude Oil Crude oil bears are totally unconvincing, proving that the prior price upswing was about way more than geopolitical uncertainty – the chart remains strongly bullish, and we have higher to run still. Copper Copper upswing is indeed taking time to develop, but commodities strength remains in spite of the daily setback, which just illustrates the risk-on euphoria in stocks. The commodities upleg hasn‘t run its course, and the red metal would join in. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are refusing to extend Sunday‘s decline – while the worst appears to be over, the short-term direction can turn out in both directions. I‘m though slightlly favoring the bulls. Summary S&P 500 turnaround continues, and price gains are frontrunning the events on the ground. The upswing is vulnerable – to a consolidation at most as a full reversal would require fresh setbacks, including in Asia. Risk-on trades have the momentum, and credit markets agree. It certainly looks like a good time to take advantage of the precious metals and commodities discounts as momentary optimism in the markets that has nothing to do with the progress on inflation. Further, we‘re still in the real economy slowdown phase, and the Fed hasn‘t even started hiking yet. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 erased opening downside, not unexpectedly. Markets say we‘ve turned the corner, and while the medium-term correction isn‘t over, we‘re going higher for now. The tired performance in credit markets suggests that the pace of the upswing would indeed likely slow, but the dips are being bought – even the 4,300 overnight level held unchallenged.VIX is slowly calming down, and it wouldn‘t be a one-way ride. I hate to say it, but we‘re trading closer to the more complacent end of the volatility spectrum – that‘s though in line with my assumption of toned down price appreciation expectations that I discussed on Sunday and yesterday:(…) While we made local lows on Thursday after all, the upside momentum is likely to slow down next – this week would bring a consolidation within a very headline sensitive environment. It‘s looking good for the bulls at the moment – till the dynamic of events beyond markets changes.Inflation isn‘t wavering, and I‘m not looking for its meaningful deceleration given the events since Thursday, no. Friday is likely to mark a buying opportunity beyond oil and copper – these longs have very good prospects. Another part of the S&P 500 upswing explanation were the still fine fresh orders data – while the real economy has noticeably decelerated (and Q1 GDP growth would be underwhelming), solid figures would return in the latter quarters of 2022. That‘s also behind the gold downswing on Friday, which hadn‘t been confirmed by the miners – the very bright future ahead for precious metals is undisputable. And the same goes for crude oil as oil stocks foretell – the fresh long crude trade together with long S&P 500 one, are both solidly in the black already.Precious metals have found a floor, and aren‘t selling off either. In fact, they are looking at a great week ahead, and the same goes for crude oil followed to a lesser degree by copper. Weekend developments on the financial front triggered a rush into cryptos, and the bullish prospects I presented yesterday, are coming to fruition.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookDaily S&P 500 consolidation as the bulls did shake off the opening setback rather easily – and the same goes for the late session trip approaching 4,310s. Expecting more volatility of the current flavor, and higher prices then.Credit MarketsHYG managed to close above Friday‘s values, and the overall bond market strength bodes well for risk appetite ahead. Let‘s consolidate first, and march higher later.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are consolidating the high ground gained, miners aren‘t yielding, and silver weakness yesterday actually bodes well for the very short term. Launching pad before the next upleg.Crude OilCrude oil bears have a hard time from keeping black gold below $100. The table is clearly set for further gains – the chart can be hardly more bullish.CopperCopper is a laggard, but will still participate in the upswing. Its current underperformance as highlighten by yesterday‘s downswing, is a bit too odd, i.e. bound to be reversed.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto bulls were indeed the stronger party, and similarly to gold, it‘s hard to imagine a deep dive coming to frution. I‘m looking for the safety trade to be be ebbing and flowing, now with some crypto participation sprinkled on top.SummaryS&P 500 turnaround goes on, and we‘re undergoing a consolidation that‘s as calm as can be given the recent volatility. Credit markets and the dollar though continue favoring the paper asset bulls now, but their gains would pale in comparison with select commodities such as oil and gold‘s newfound floor. Even agrifoods look to be sold down a bit too hard, and I‘m not looking for them to be languishing next as much as they have been over the last two trading days. Cryptos upswing highlights the present global uncertainties faced – as I have written on Thursday that the world has changed, the same applies for weekend banking events being reflected in the markets yesterday.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

WTI has surged above $101 to hit its highest in over seven years, with analysts eyeing the 2014 highs near $107.50. The rally is being driven by concerns of supply disruptions as Western sanctions against Russia start to bite. For now, this has outweighed chatter about coordinated oil reserve releases. Oil prices have surged this Tuesday as concerns grow about supply disruptions as Western sanctions against Russia, who are currently in the process of invading Ukraine, start to bite, outweighing chatter about coordinated oil reserve releases. Front-month WTI futures have surged to their highest levels since July 2014 above $101 per barrel, with the bulls eyeing a test of the next key area of resistance in the $107.50 area, which marks the 2014 highs. That translates into on-the-day gains of more than $5.0 and takes WTI’s two-day rally to over $9.0. A senior analyst at Rystad Energy wrote that “the fragile situation in Ukraine and financial and energy sanctions against Russia will keep the energy crisis stoked and oil well above $100 per barrel in the near-term and even higher if the conflict escalates further”. The US and EU have not imposed direct sanctions on Russian energy companies or on energy exports, but various reports in financial press point to growing difficulties in conducting trade of these goods. Banks have been pulling financing and shipping costs have surged, while major Western-based energy companies are looking to exit their stakes in Russian operations. Russia exports between 4-5M barrels of crude oil per day, plus a further 2-3M barrels of refined products each day, making the country one of the world’s most important energy exports. Major US banks including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan have all upped their oil forecasts to reflect concerns about supply disruptions, with some analysts warning of oil hitting $150. Press reports suggest that a coordinated crude oil reserve release by the US and its allies could amount to between 60-70M barrels and such a move is currently under discussion at an extraordinary ministerial meeting of the Internation Energy Agency. Confirmation that nations agreed on the release might trigger some profit-taking in crude oil later in the session, analysts suggested, but shouldn’t shift the underlying bullish dynamic. With fresh sources suggesting OPEC+ is going to stick to its current output policy of increasing quotas by 400K barrels per day/month in April, despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine, hopes of near-term supply relief from OPEC+ remain non-existent.

Brent crude prices have jumped 13% since the start of the week, trading above $110 a barrel at the time of writing. These are the highest levels since July 2014. Meanwhile, the ruble continues to retreat against the dollar and euro.  USDRUB is now trading at 106.40 (+5.5%) on the Moscow Exchange, and EURRUB is above 118 (+5%). In both cases, rates are approaching the highs set at the start of trading on Monday. As would be expected, the announced support measures from the Central Bank are softening the fall but not reversing it. The one-way movement in oil prices is since buyers in Europe are increasingly refusing to buy Russian oil, trying to find a replacement for it.  This shift in priorities is visible in the sharp widening of the spread between Urals and Brent. Historically, and without various restrictions, the spread between these grades is $2-3 in favour of the lighter Brent. Now it is more than $17 as buyers are not chartering new shipments. Canada is refusing to buy Russian oil, and the UK (which is much more dependent on energy imports) is considering options for sanctions against the industry.  The European Parliament has passed a resolution calling for EU oil and gas imports restrictions. Thus, Russia has failed to fully benefit from higher prices, losing both in sales volumes and facing an actual fall in selling prices.  The potential for already announced measures destabilises the market, setting Russia up to start using energy or agricultural products as a retaliatory measure. While it is hard to imagine the world without Russian energy in the coming months - it will be as chaotic as the oil crisis in 1973, with the oil price soaring fourfold in six months of the embargo. We may see a smaller price jump but with much wider economic consequences. It is ironic that Europe and Western countries, in general, were helped by the Soviet Union. Now consumers are left to rely on the Middle East and its reserves.  Yesterday, Biden announced an agreed sale of 60m barrels to 30 countries. Still, the market reaction to these announcements indicates that the market was expecting more, and the announced volumes are not enough. It is hard to say the theoretical limit to oil's rise. The Brent price could surpass the 2012 highs of $128 in a matter of days or aim for a historical record of $147.

Episode 012 of ‘The Trade Off’ is here! . This weekly #trading series features Blake Morrow (ForexAnalytix) and our very own Chris Weston, as they engage in an energetic discussion of the financial markets — what’s hot, what’s not and always breaking down the trade. Find out more at https://thetradeoff.tv 00:00 Intro 02:21 Topical Thunder: Markets are alive! 05:48 US Dollar 09:06 Central Banks 12:45 Copper 15:37 That's a Setup: Crude 18:00 Russell 2000 20:13 Palladium 22:22 USDCAD 24:41 Chris' Play of the Day: EURAUD 26:00 Blake's Play of the Day: EURJPY 27:23 Wrap-up Prefer to listen rather than watch? The Trade Off is now also a podcast! Listen either Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast... Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7gzvAJx... Sitting on the sidelines but ready not to start trading yourself? Don't miss next week's beginner webinar on day trading strategies! Watch it here on Wed 9 March at 8pm AEDT: https://youtu.be/Uzsot7qiw5g The Trade Off is powered by Pepperstone. Pepperstone is an online FX/CFD broker providing traders across the globe with cutting-edge technology to trade the world’s markets. We’re driven to provide traders with low-cost pricing across all instruments including FX and CFDs (crypto, commodities, indices).

After the war-driven gold rally, oil is starting to outperform. History between these two has already shown that someone may suffer. Many suggest: gold miners.The precious metals corrected some of their gains yesterday, but overall, not much changed in them. However, quite a lot happened in crude oil, and in today’s analysis we’ll focus on what it implies for the precious metals market and, in particular – for mining stocks.As you may have noticed, crude oil shot up recently in a spectacular manner. This seems normal, as it’s a market with rather inflexible supply and demand, so disruptions in supply or threats thereof can impact the price in a substantial way. With Russia as one of the biggest crude oil producers, its invasion of Ukraine, and a number of sanctions imposed on the attacking country (some of them involving oil directly), it’s natural that crude oil reacts in a certain manner. The concern-based rally in gold is also understandable.However, the relationship between wars, concerns, and prices of assets is not as straightforward as “there’s a war, so gold and crude oil will go up.” In order to learn more about this relationship, let’s examine the most similar situation in recent history to the current one, when oil supplies were at stake.The war that I’m mentioning is the one between Iraq and the U.S. that started almost 20 years ago. Let’s see what happened in gold, oil, and gold stocks at that time.The most interesting thing is that when the war officially started, the above-mentioned markets were already after a decline. However, that’s not that odd, when one considers the fact that back then, the tensions were building for a long time, and it was relatively clear in advance that the U.S. attack was going to happen. This time, Russia claimed that it wouldn’t attack until the very last minute before the invasion.The point here, however, is that the markets rallied while the uncertainty and concerns were building up, and then declined when the situation was known and “stable.” I don’t mean that “war” was seen as stable, but rather that the outcome and how it affected the markets was rather obvious.The other point is the specific way in which all three markets reacted to the war and the timing thereof.Gold stocks rallied initially, but then were not that eager to follow gold higher, but that’s something that’s universal in the final stages of most rallies in the precious metals market. What’s most interesting here is that there was a time when crude oil rallied substantially, while gold was already declining.Let me emphasize that once again: gold topped first, and then it underperformed while crude oil continued to soar substantially.Fast forward to the current situation. What has happened recently?Gold moved above $1,970 (crude oil peaked at $100.54 at that time), and then it declined heavily. It’s now trying to move back to this intraday high, but it was not able to do so. At the moment of writing these words, gold is trading at about $1,930, while crude oil is trading at about $114.In other words, while gold declined by $30, crude oil rallied by about $14. That’s a repeat of what we saw in 2003!What happened next in 2003? Gold declined, and the moment when crude oil started to visibly outperform gold was also the beginning of a big decline in gold stocks.That makes perfect sense on the fundamental level too. Gold miners’ share prices depend on their profits (just like it’s the case with any other company). Crude oil at higher levels means higher costs for the miners (the machinery has to be fueled, the equipment has to be transported, etc.). When costs (crude oil could be viewed as a proxy for them) are rising faster than revenues (gold could be viewed as a proxy for them), miners’ profits appear to be in danger; and investors don’t like this kind of danger, so they sell shares. Of course, there are many more factors that need to be taken into account, but I just wanted to emphasize one way in which the above-mentioned technical phenomenon is justified. The above doesn’t apply to silver as it’s a commodity, but it does apply to silver stocks.Back in 2004, gold stocks wiped out their entire war-concern-based rally, and the biggest part of the decline took just a bit more than a month. Let’s remember that back then, gold stocks were in a very strong medium- and long-term uptrend. Right now, mining stocks remain in a medium-term downtrend, so their decline could be bigger – they could give away their war-concern-based gains and then decline much more.Mining stocks are not declining profoundly yet, but let’s keep in mind that history rhymes – it doesn’t repeat to the letter. As I emphasized previously today, back in 2003 and 2002, the tensions were building for a longer time and it was relatively clear in advance that the U.S. attack was going to happen. This time, Russia claimed that it wouldn’t attack until the very last minute before the invasion. Consequently, the “we have to act now” is still likely to be present, and the dust hasn’t settled yet – everything appears to be unclear, and thus the markets are not returning to their previous trends. Yet.However, as history shows, that is likely to happen. Either immediately, or shortly, as crude oil is already outperforming gold.Investing and trading are difficult. If it was easy, most people would be making money – and they’re not. Right now, it’s most difficult to ignore the urge to “run for cover” if you physically don’t have to. The markets move on “buy the rumor and sell the fact.” This repeats over and over again in many (all?) markets, and we have direct analogies to similar situations in gold itself. Junior miners are likely to decline the most, also based on the massive declines that are likely to take place (in fact, they have already started) in the stock markets.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 returned above 4,350s as credit markets indeed weren‘t leading to the downside. Consolidation now followed by more upside, that‘s the most likely scenario next. Yesterday‘s risk-on turn was reflected also in value rising more than tech. Anyway, the Nasdaq upswing is a good omen for the bulls in light of the TLT downswing – Treasuries are bucking the Powell newfound rate raising hesitation – inflation ambiguity is back. The yield curve is still compressing, and the pressure on the Fed to act, goes on – looking at where real asset prices are now, it had been indeed unreasonable to expect inflation to slow down meaningfully. Told you so – as I have written yesterday:(…) What‘s most interesting about bonds now, is the relenting pressure on the Fed to raise rates – the 2-year yield is moving down noticeably, and that means much practical progress on fighting inflation can‘t be expected. Not that there was much to start with, but the expectations of the hawkish Fed talk turning into action, are being dialed back. The current geopolitical events provide a scene to which attention is fixated while inflation fires keep raging on with renewed vigor (beyond energies) – just as I was calling for a little deceleration in CPI towards the year end bringing it to probably 5-6%, this figure is starting to look too optimistic on the price stability front.Predictable consequence are strong appreciation days across the board in commodities and precious metals. – let‘s enjoy the sizable open profits especially in oil and copper. I told you weeks ago that real assets are where to look for in portfolio gains – and even the modest S&P 500 long profits taken off the table yesterday, are taking my portfolio performance chart to fresh highs. Crude oil keeps rising as if there‘s no tomorrow, copper is joining in, agrifoods are on fire – and precious metals continue being very well bid. Cryptos aren‘t selling off either. Anyway, this is the time of real assets...Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls are back, and I‘m looking for consolidation around these levels. The very short-term direction isn‘t totally clear, but appears favoring the bulls unless corporate junk bonds crater. Not too likely.Credit MarketsHYG performance shows rising risk appetite, but the waning volume is a sign of caution for today. Unless LQD and TLT rise as well, HYG looks short-term stretched, therefore I‘m looking for consolidation today.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are doing great, and they merely corrected yesterday – both gold and silver can be counted on to extend gains if you look at the miners‘ message. As the prospects of vigorous Fed action gets dialed back, they stand to benefit even more.Crude OilCrude oil surge is both justified and unprecedented – and oil stocks aren‘t weakening. It looks like we would consolidate in the volatile range around $110 next.CopperCopper is joining in the upswing increasingly more, and the buyer‘s return before the close looks sufficient to maintain upside momentum that had been questioned earlier in the day. The break higher out of the long consolidation, is approaching.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto buyers are consolidating well deserved gains, and the bullish flag is being formed. The sellers are nowhere to be seen at the moment – I‘m still looking for the current tight range to be resolved to the upside next.SummaryS&P 500 has reached a short-term resistance, which would be overcome only should bonds give their blessing. It‘s likely these would confirm the risk-on turn, but HYG looks a bit too extended – its consolidation of high ground gained, could slow the stock bulls somewhat. The risk appetite and „rush to safety“ in commodities and precious metals goes on, more or less squeezing select assets such as crude oil. The CRB Index upswing is though of the orderly and broad advance flavor, and does reflect the prospects of inflation remaining elevated for longer than foreseen by the mainstream.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Markets have started the week with further heavy selling as the conflict in Ukraine continued to intensify. From Friday’s crazy reports of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant being shelled to broken ceasefires and trapped residents unable to evacuate. Today’s reports suggested Russia had agreed to stop fighting on their side to finally allow trapped residents to evacuate to safe zones.  Oil and Gold have been headline movers, but it hasn’t been all about them. We have continued to watch stock drops on stock indexes. European indexes and Asian indexes have been particularly hard hit, with several losing over 15% in the last two monthly bars, including this month. Oil has not only been a flyer as the world watches Russia and Ukraine, but the energy shock has sent oil prices flying. WTI has seen over 40% added in the last two months, and the rally has been running for the last four months straight. Oil jumped to 13-year highs today as reports mentioned the U.S and Europe could look at banning Russian crude imports.  Getting back to stock indexes, the oil rally has also contributed to the decline. Oil at these highs ramps up inflation fears, that are already running hot and start to put growth pressure back on economies that are just beginning to come out of the pandemic. Business requires energy. High energy costs make business more expensive and can be passed onto the consumer, increasing the cost of goods.  Surging inflation has mainly been a US and European issue, but if it ramped up all over the world, many economies might not be ready to start raising rates to combat it. For instance, Australia’s building industry has been kept alive by a super-hot housing market. Rising rates could cool off the housing market and put pressure on the building and trade industries. One major building group just failed. Higher rates and reduced business could show cracks in more companies.  We’ve picked a few markets out to take a closer look.  Euro Stoxx 50 The Euro Stoxx 50 lost 20% to its low. Europen shares, especially German shares, have been hit hard by the conflict in Ukraine. Sellers have cut close half of the rally seen from 2020. Today sellers retraced all gains made in 2021 after hitting 3381.  Hang Seng Index This one went a little under the radar, but I saw the damage that has been done to this index and was quite surprised. 14% has been wiped off the index in the last two months and the price today slipped below the 2020 low. When you compare it to the JPN225 that’s where the shock comes from, as it has dropped 8%. Gold Gold has been a significant talking point during the crisis. Good old Gold went straight back to safe mode as traders looked for a safe bet in a time of crisis. The rally in the last two months has been rather explosive. Buyers have added over 11% to the value, and we saw $2000USD touched today. Price now sits 3.72% away from retesting highs set back in 2020 in the heart of the pandemic. Another factor that might be adding to the appreciation. Reposts suggest that Gold could be being used to pay for oil. This is interesting as oil has always been paid for in USD. But with Russia partially locked out of SWIFT and the Fed blocking their USD transactions, Gold could be a new payment option moving forward.  Uncertainty presents Volatility Currently, our margin levels remain unchanged across all instruments and we offer one of the best swap conditions on key instruments such as Gold. Make the most out of market movements right now with Eightcap. For more information on market updates and our swap rates, please contact our award-winning customer service team. The post CFD Update: Three Markets to Watch as Markets Open Today appeared first on Eightcap.

  The threat of sanctions caused a stir in the markets: WTI spiked above $130 and Brent is nearing the $140 mark. Where is crude oil going next? A possible Western embargo on Russian oil caused oil prices to soar again on Monday, as stock markets feared persistent inflation and a consequent economic slowdown. On the US dollar side, the continued rally of the greenback has propelled the dollar index (DXY) towards higher levels, as it is now approaching the three-figure mark ($100), even though it has not had a huge impact on crude oil, other petroleum products, or any other commodities in general. What we rather witness here is the greenback’s safe haven effect attracting investors, much like gold would tend to act in a “store of value” role. US Dollar Index (DXY) CFD (daily chart) On the geopolitical scene, Russia-Ukraine peace talks will be resumed today in Brest (Belarus) at 14:00 GMT, while another meeting is already scheduled at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum on Thursday in Turkey. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba will talk there in the presence of the Turkish foreign minister. We might therefore expect some de-escalation in the Black Sea basin this week if the two parties involved were able to reach an agreement after further negotiations. WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Brent Crude Oil (BRNK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Regarding natural gas, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2022 report, suggesting that even with non-hydro renewable sources set to rapidly grow through 2050, oil and gas-derived sources should still remain the top energy sources to fuel most of the United States. The agency is forecasting a rise in the production of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) – which mainly comes from shale gas – by at least 35%! In summary, the threat of sanctions has already wiped out almost all Russian oil – at least 7% of global supply – from the world oil market. In the weeks or months to come, we can see sanctions on Russian oil exports create a boomerang effect on European economies, decreasing world market supply, increasing prices for industry, as well as even more rising expenses, and thus cost of living through a ripple effect. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 indeed didn‘t reverse on Friday in earnest, and both tech and value sold off hard. Not much reason to be bullish thanks to credit markets performance either – the posture is very risk-off, and the rush to commodities goes on. With a little check yesterday on the high opening prices in crude oil and copper, but still. My favorite agrifoods picks of late, wheat and corn, are doing great, and the pressure within select base metals, is building up – such as (for understandable reasons) in nickel and aluminum. Look for more to come, especially there where supply is getting messed with (this doesn‘t concern copper to such a degree, explaining its tepid price gains). And I‘m not talking even the brightest spot, where I at the onset of 2022 announced that precious metals would be the great bullish surprise this year. Those who listened, are rocking and rolling – we‘re nowhere near the end of the profitable run! Crude oil is likely to consolidate prior steep gains, and could definitely continue spiking higher. Should it stay comfortably above $125 for months, that would lead to quite some demand destruction. Given that black gold acts as a „shadow Fed funds rate“, let‘s bring up yesterday‘s rate raising thoughts and other relevant snippets: (,,,) If TLT has a message to drive home after the latest Powell pronouncements, it‘s that the odds of a 50bp rate hike in Mar (virtual certainty less than two weeks ago, went down considerably) – it‘s almost a coin toss now, and as the FOMC time approaches, the Fed would probably grow more cautious (read dovish and not hawkish) in its assessments, no matter the commodities appreciation or supply chains status. Yes, neither of these, nor inflation is going away before the year‘s end – they are here to stay for a long time to come. Looking at the events of late, I have to dial back the stock market outlook when it comes to the degree of appreciation till 2022 is over – I wouldn‘t be surprised to see the S&P 500 to retreat slightly vs. the Jan 2022 open. Yes, not even the better 2H 2022 prospects would erase the preceding setback. Which stocks would do best then? Here are my key 4 tips – energy, materials, in general value, and smallcaps. But the true winners of the stagflationary period is of course going to be commodities and precious metals. And that‘s where the bulk of recent gains that I brought you, were concentrated in. More is to come, and it‘s gold and silver that are catching real fire here. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 didn‘t do at all well yesterday, and signs of a short-term bottom are absent. It‘s entirely possible that the brief upswing that I was looking to be selling into to start the week, has been not merely postponed. Credit Markets HYG is clearly on the defensive, and TLT reassessing rate hike prospects – yet, long-dated Treasuries still declined. There is no appetite to buy bonds, and that confirms my thesis of lower lows to be made still in Mar. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals keep doing great, and will likely continue rising no matter what the dollar does – last three days‘ experience confirms that. This is more than mere flight to safety - I‘m looking for further price gains as the upleg has been measured and orderly so far. Crude Oil Crude oil‘s opening gap had been sold into, but we haven‘t seen a reversal yesterday. The upswing can continue, and it would happen on high volatility. I don‘t think we have seen the real spike just yet. Copper For all the above reasons, copper isn‘t rising as fast as other base metals (one of the key engines of commodities appreciation). The run is respectable, and not overheated. $5.00 would remain quite a tough nut to crack – for the time being. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos haven‘t made up their mind yet, but one thing is sure – they aren‘t acting as a safe haven. Given the extent of retreat from Mar highs, it means I‘m looking for not too spectacular performance in the days ahead. Summary S&P 500 missed an opportunity to rise (even if just to open the week on a positive note), and its prospects for today aren‘t way too much brighter. It‘s that practically nothing is giving bullish signals for paper assets, and the market breadth has understandably deteriorated. The rush into precious metals, dollar and commodities remains on – these are the pockets of strength, lifting to a very modest and hidden degree Treasuries as well (these are however reassessing the hawkish Fed prospects) at a time when global growth downgrades are starting to arrive. Pretty serious figures, let me tell you. As I wrote yesterday, stocks may even undershoot prior Thursday‘s lows, but I‘m not looking for that to happen. The sentiment is very negative already, the yield curve keeps compressing, commodities are rising relentlessly, and all we got is a great inflation excuse / smoke screen. Inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, and supply chain disruptions and other geopolitical events can and do exacerbate that. Just having a look at the rising dollar when rate hike prospects are getting dialed back, tells the full risk-off story of the moment, further highlighted by the powder keg that precious metals are. And silver isn‘t yet outperforming copper, which is something I am looking for to change as we go by. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  Gold has hit $2,000 but is still struggling to maintain that historical level. It has already tried 8 times - will the ninth attempt succeed? Many indications make this doubtful. Gold is attempting to break above the $2,000 milestone, and miners are trying to break above their declining resistance line. Will they manage to do so, and if so, how long will the rally last? Yesterday, gold didn’t manage to close above the $2,000 level and it’s making another attempt to rally above it in today’s pre-market trading. However, will it be successful? Given the RSI above 70 and the strength of the current resistance, it’s doubtful. In fact, nothing has changed with regard to this likelihood since yesterday, so what I wrote about it in the previous Gold & Silver Trading Alert remains up-to-date: Gold touched $2,000 in today’s pre-market trading, which is barely above its 2021 high and below its 2020 high. Crude oil is way above both analogous levels. In other words, gold underperforms crude oil to a significant extent, just like in 2003. Interestingly, back in 2003, gold topped when crude oil rallied about 40% from its short-term lows (the late-2002 low). What happened next in 2003? Gold declined, and the moment when crude oil started to visibly outperform gold was also the beginning of a big decline in gold stocks. That makes perfect sense on the fundamental level too. Gold miners’ share prices depend on their profits (just like it’s the case with any other company). Crude oil at higher levels means higher costs for the miners (the machinery has to be fueled, the equipment has to be transported, etc.). When costs (crude oil could be viewed as a proxy for them) are rising faster than revenues (gold could be viewed as a proxy for them), miners’ profits appear to be in danger; and investors don’t like this kind of danger, so they sell shares. Of course, there are many more factors that need to be taken into account, but I just wanted to emphasize one way in which the above-mentioned technical phenomenon is justified. Back in 2003, gold stocks wiped out their entire war-concern-based rally, and the biggest part of the decline took just a bit more than a month. Let’s remember that back then, gold stocks were in a very strong medium- and long-term uptrend. Right now, mining stocks remain in a medium-term downtrend, so their decline could be bigger – they could give away their war-concern-based gains and then decline much more. Mining stocks are not declining profoundly yet, but let’s keep in mind that history rhymes – it doesn’t repeat to the letter. As I emphasized previously today, back in 2003 and 2002, the tensions were building for a longer time, and it was relatively clear in advance that the U.S. attack was going to happen. This time, Russia claimed that it wouldn’t attack until the very last minute before the invasion. Consequently, the “we have to act now” is still likely to be present, and the dust hasn’t settled yet – everything appears to be unclear, and thus the markets are not returning to their previous trends. Yet. However, as history shows, that is likely to happen. Either immediately, or shortly, as crude oil is already outperforming gold. The above chart features the GDXJ ETF. As you can see, the junior miners moved to their very strong resistance provided by the declining resistance line. This resistance is further strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and the previous (late-2021) high. This means that it’s particularly strong, and any breakout here would likely be invalidated shortly. Given the clear sell signal from the RSI indicator, a turnaround here is even more likely. I marked the previous such signals to emphasize their efficiency. When the RSI was above 70, a top was in 6 out of 7 of the recent cases, and the remaining case was shortly before the final top, anyway. This resistance seems to be analogous to the $2,000 level in gold. By the way, please note that gold tried to break above $2,000 several times: twice in August 2020; twice in September 2020 (once moving above it, once moving just near this level); once in November 2020 (moving near this level); once in January 2021 (moving near this level); once in February 2022 (moving near this level). These attempts failed in each of the 7 cases mentioned above. This is the eight attempt. Will this very strong resistance break this time? Given how much crude oil has already soared, and how both markets used to react to war tensions in the case of oil-producing countries, it seems that the days of the rally are numbered. Moving back to the GDXJ ETF, please note that while gold is moving close to its all-time highs, the junior miners are not doing anything like that. In fact, they barely moved slightly above their late-2021 high. They are not even close to their 2021 high, let alone their 2020 high. Instead, junior mining stocks are just a bit above their early-2020 high, from which their prices were more than cut in half in less than a month. In other words, junior miners strongly underperform gold, which is a bearish sign. When gold finally declines – and it’s likely to, as geopolitical events tend to have only a temporary effect on prices, even if they’re substantial – junior miners will probably slide much more than gold. One of the reasons is the likely decline in the general stock market. I recently received a question about the impact the general stock market has on mining stocks, as the latter moved higher despite stocks’ decline in recent weeks. So, let’s take a look at a chart that will feature junior mining stocks, the GLD ETF, and the S&P 500 Index. Before the Ukraine crisis, the link between junior miners and the stock market was clear. Now, it's not as clear, but it’s still present. Juniors only moved to their late-2021 highs, while gold is over $100 above those highs. Juniors underperform significantly, in tune with the stock market's weakness. The gold price is still the primary driver of mining stock prices – including junior mining stocks. After all, that’s what’s either being sold by the company (that produces gold) or in the properties that the company owns and explores (junior miners). As gold prices exploded in the last couple of weeks, junior miners practically had to follow. However, this doesn’t mean that the stock market’s influence is not present nor that it’s going to be unimportant going forward. Conversely, the weak performance of the general stock market likely contributed to junior miners’ weakness relative to gold – the former didn’t rally as much as the latter. Since the weakness in the general stock market is likely to continue, and gold’s rally is likely to be reversed (again, what happened in the case of other military conflicts is in tune with history, not against it), junior miners are likely to decline much more profoundly than gold. Speaking of the general stock market, it just closed at the lowest level since mid-2021. The key thing about the above chart is that what we’ve seen this year is the biggest decline since 2020, and the size of the recent slide is comparable to what we saw as the initial wave down in 2020 – along with the subsequent correction. If these moves are analogous, the recent rebound was perfectly normal – there was one in early 2020 too. This also means that a much bigger decline is likely in the cards in the coming weeks, and that it’s already underway. This would be likely to have a very negative impact on the precious metals market, in particular on junior mining stocks (initially) and silver (a bit later). All in all, it seems that due to the technical resistance in gold and mining stocks, the sizable – but likely temporary (like other geopolitical-event-based-ones) – rally is likely to be reversed shortly. Then, as the situation in the general stock market deteriorates, junior miners would be likely to plunge in a spectacular manner. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 once again gave up intraday gains, and credit markets confirmed the decline. Value down significantly more than tech, risk-off anywhere you look. For days without end, but the reprieve can come on seemingly little to no positive news, just when the sellers exhaust themselves and need to regroup temporarily. We‘re already seeing signs of such a respite in precious metals and commodities – be it the copper downswing, oil unable to break $130, or miners not following gold much higher yesterday. Corn and wheat also consolidated – right or wrong, the market seeks to anticipate some relief from Eastern Europe.The big picture though hasn‘t changed:(…) credit markets … posture is very risk-off, and the rush to commodities goes on. With a little check yesterday on the high opening prices in crude oil and copper, but still. My favorite agrifoods picks of late, wheat and corn, are doing great, and the pressure within select base metals, is building up – such as (for understandable reasons) in nickel and aluminum. Look for more to come, especially there where supply is getting messed with (this doesn‘t concern copper to such a degree, explaining its tepid price gains).And I‘m not talking even the brightest spot, where I at the onset of 2022 announced that precious metals would be the great bullish surprise this year. Those who listened, are rocking and rolling – we‘re nowhere near the end of the profitable run! Crude oil is likely to consolidate prior steep gains, and could definitely continue spiking higher. Should it stay comfortably above $125 for months, that would lead to quite some demand destruction. Given that black gold acts as a „shadow Fed funds rate“, ......its downswing would contribute to providing the Fed with an excuse not to hike in Mar by 50bp. After the prior run up in the price of black gold that however renders such an excuse a verbal exercise only, the Fed remains between a rock and hard place, and the inflationary fires keep raging on.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is reaching for the Feb 24 lows, and may find respite at this level. The upper knot though would need a solid close today (above 4,250) to be of short-term significance. Remember, the market remains very much headline sensitive.Credit MarketsHYG clearly remains on the defensive, but the sellers may need a pause here, if volume is any guide. Bonds are getting beaten, and the outlook remains negative to neutral for the weeks ahead. Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals keep doing great, but a pause is knocking on the door. Not a reversal, a pause. Gold and silver are indeed the go-to assets in the current situation, and miners agree wholeheartedly.Crude OilCrude oil is having trouble extending gains, and the consolidation I mentioned yesterday, approaches. I do not think however that this is the end of the run higher.CopperCopper is pausing already, and this underperformer looks very well bid above $4.60. Let the red metal build a base, and continue rising next, alongside the rest of the crowd.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos upswing equals more risk appetite? It could be so, looking at the dollar‘s chart (I‘m talking that in the summary of today‘s analysis).SummaryEvery dog has its day, and the S&P 500‘s one might be coming today or tomorrow. It‘s that the safe havens of late (precious metals, commodities and the dollar) are having trouble extending prior steep gains further. These look to be in for a brief respite that would be amplified on any possible news of deescalation. In such an environment, risk taking would flourish at expense of gold, silver and oil especially. I don‘t think so we have seen the tops – precious metals are likely to do great on the continued inflation turning into stagflation (GDP growth figures being downgraded), and commodities are set to further benefit from geopolitics (among much else).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Better sounding newsflow regarding the possibility of a diplomatic solution to the Russo-Ukraine war is weighing heavily on crude oil. Talks between the Russian and Ukrainian Foreign Ministers on Thursday will be key. WTI is currently down more than $7.50 as traders also mull a possible US/Iran nuclear deal and further reserve releases. A slightly more conciliatory tone to the rhetoric from Ukrainian and Russian officials regarding the possibility of a diplomatic solution to the war ahead of Thursday’s meeting of the two nations’ Foreign Ministers in Turkey has seen oil markets plunge. Russia said on Wednesday that “some progress” had been made with Ukraine and laid out a potential territorial compromise, while a Ukrainian official close to President Zelenskyy hinted that Russian demands for “neutrality” can be discussed. Front-month WTI futures have subsequently tanked nearly $6.50 per barrel on the session to near the $118 level, a near $12 turnaround from Tuesday’s highs near $130. Traders also said that markets were taking a more relaxed view on the US ban on Russian oil imports announced on Tuesday and that this was weighing on prices. “Theoretically, the US could even offset the outages from Russia with its own production,” said an analyst at Commerzbank. Elsewhere, some traders cited expectations for more oil reserve releases as triggering profit-taking after the head of the International Energy Agency hinted that last week’s decision by member nations to release 60M barrels could be the first of further releases. As oil traders continue to juggle numerous competing themes, choppy market conditions are likely here to stay for some time. With Iran’s chief negotiator in the nuclear talks having arrived back in Vienna on Wednesday to continue discussions, it may well be that a deal is imminent, despite recent concerns that the Russians were adding additional demands. A deal would pave the way for over 1.3M barrels in daily Iranian crude oil exports to return to global markets. In the more immediate future, focus will return to the global crude oil inventory situation with the release of weekly official US data at 1530GMT.

EURUSD bounces back The euro rallies on news that the EU may issue a joint bond to fund energy and defense. The pair found bids near May 2020’s lows (1.0810). An oversold RSI on the daily chart prompted sellers to take profit, easing the downward pressure. A rally above the immediate resistance at 1.0940 and a bullish MA cross may improve sentiment in the short term. However, buyers will need to clear the support-turned-resistance at 1.1160 before they could hope for a meaningful rebound. 1.0910 is the support in case of a pullback. GBPUSD inches higher The sterling claws back losses as risk appetite makes a timid return across the board. Following a three-month-long rebound on the daily chart, a lack of support at 1.3200 and a bearish MA cross shows strong selling pressure. A bounce-back above 1.3200 may only offer temporary relief as sellers potentially look to fade the rebound. 1.3350 is a key hurdle that sits along the 20-day moving average. 1.3080 is fresh support and its breach could trigger a new round of sell-off below the next daily support at 1.2880. USOIL breaks support WTI crude tumbled after the UAE said consider boosting production. The parabolic climb came to a halt at 129.00 and pushed the RSI into an extremely overbought condition on the daily chart. A bearish RSI divergence suggested a loss of momentum and foreshadowed a correction as traders would be wary of chasing the rally. A fall below 115.00 led buyers to bail out, triggering a wave of liquidation. 105.00 is the next support and a breakout could bring the price back to 95.00 near the 30-day moving average.

Brent crude experienced its biggest intraday decline yesterday, losing more than $17 on the day to $110, with the range of movements on the spot market exceeding $26.The momentum of the decline was triggered by Blinken's (US Secretary of State) reports that the UAE was ready to ramp up its production, replacing Oil from Russia and stabilising the market. UAE officials soon said they remained committed to the current agreements. But this did not help Oil, which stabilised near levels a week ago. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have significant spare capacity to restore their production to pre-demand levels and even increase their global market share. At the same time, most OPEC representatives are not fully committed to their quotas. Iran and Venezuela have more options. Both countries are trying to use the situation to ease US sanctions pressure. Iran produces 2.3 million barrels per day, about half of pre-sanctions levels. Venezuela's production is around 0.8m BPD versus 3.1m BPD before the 2019 sanctions. Both countries can get 0.4m b/d back on the market quickly, but it will take a significant investment in the industry and a long time to grow after that. Caracas is already curtseying towards the US by releasing two prisoners. The US is lifting some sanctions on some Iranian politicians even before the deal is struck. These are signs of progress towards easing sanctions and a clear signal to Russia that the world is not so dependent on its energy. These are all signs favouring our idea that the peak of fear, and therefore oil prices, is over. Furthermore, Russia has not yet even gone so far as to threaten to halt exports as OPEC did in 1972. That said, military tensions and further restrictions on Russian oil and gas imports could trigger growth impulses, some of which could be strong. However, the oil price situation looks depleted. We are set to see either a consolidation around these levels in a pessimistic war scenario, or a correction to around $90 on progress in the peace talks and the start of a move to ease sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela.

What’s next for the GER30 (DAX) traders? Today we will take a look at the current price actions signs that we’re watching. Short-term traders could have been having a feat on the recent price moves with a 10% fall in the last five days and a 12% rally to this week’s high. It is that movement that has started to get our attention as we can now see a V pattern forming. V patterns can produce reversals, but we need to see buyers beat yesterday’s high to start getting any ideas of confirmation going. The DAX has been one of the main indexes severely beaten down after Russia invaded Ukraine. Many of its weight stocks were hit hard by worry over the future implications of a conflict in Europe and surging oil prices. Over 16% was wiped off the GER30 index in the last three weeks to its low. This week price made a strong fightback after crude prices plunged overnight, and on the news, Russia and Ukraine are looking to sit down for talks. Will the V confirm? A lot rests on the fundamentals driving price at the moment. Will we see a cease-fire that’s respected? Will this lead to oil continuing to retreat? We feel these are important factors to give buyers further confidence to take the market higher. Any flare-ups could set off new rounds of selling, which could set the V up to fail. GER30 D1 Chart The post CFD Update: Can the GER30 confirm the reversal pattern? appeared first on Eightcap.

S&P 500 tech driven upswing makes the advance a bit suspect, and prone to consolidation. I would have expected value to kick in to a much greater degree given the risk-on posture in the credit markets. The steep downswing in commodities and precious metals doesn‘t pass the smell test for me – just as there were little cracks in the dam warning of short-term vulnerability at the onset of yesterday, the same way there are signs of the resulting downswing being overdone now.And that has consequences for the multitude of open positions – the PMs and commodities super bull runs are on, and the geopolitics still support the notion of the next spike.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 turned around, and the volume isn‘t raising too many eyebrows. However, the bulls should have tempered price appreciation expectations, to put it politely...Credit MarketsHYG turned around, but isn‘t entirely convincing yet. We saw an encouraging first step towards risk-on turn that requires that the moves continue, which is unlikely today – CPI is here, and unlikely to disappoint the inflationistas.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals downswing looks clearly overdone, and I continue calling for a shallow, $1,980 - $2,000 range consolidation next. This gives you an idea not to expect steep silver discounts either. Miner are clear, and holding up nicely.Crude OilCrude oil downswing came, arguably way too steep one. Even oil stocks turned down in spite of the S&P 500 upswing, which is odd. I‘m looking for gradual reversal of yesterday‘s weakness in both.CopperCopper has made one of its odd moves on par with the late Jan long red candle one – I‘m looking for the weakness to be reversed, and not only in the red metal but within commodities as such.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are giving up yesterday‘s upswing – they are dialing back the risk-on turn and rush out of the safe havens of late.SummaryThe S&P 500 dog indeed just had its day, but the price appreciation prospects are not looking too bright for today. With attention turning to CPI, and yesterday‘s „hail mary decline aka I don‘t need you anymore“ in the safe havens of late (precious metals, crude oil, wheat, and the dollar to name just a few) getting proper scrutiny, I‘m looking for gradual return to strength in all things real (real assets) – it‘s my reasonable assumption that the markets won‘t get surprised by an overwhelmingly positive headline from Eastern Europe at this point. Focusing on the underlying fundamentals and charts, I don‘t think so we have seen the real asset tops – precious metals are likely to do great on the continued inflation turning into stagflation (GDP growth figures being downgraded), and commodities are set to further benefit from geopolitics (among much else).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 gave up the opening gains, but managed to close on a good note, in spite of credit markets not confirming. Given though the high volume characterizing HYG downswing and retreating crude oil, we may be in for a stock market led rebound today. It‘s that finally, value did much better yesterday than tech.CPI came red hot, but didn‘t beat expectations, yield curve remains flat as a pancake, and the commodity index didn‘t sell off too hard. It remains to be seen whether the miners‘ strength was for real or not – anyway, the yesterday discussed shallow $1,980 - $2,000 range consolidation still remains the most likely scenario. I just don‘t see PMs and commodities giving up a lion‘s share of the post Feb 24 gains next.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 can still turn around, and the odds of doing so successfully (till the closing bell today), have increased yesterday. The diminished volume points to no more sellers at this point while buyers are waiting on the sidelines.Credit MarketsHYG has only marginally closed below Tuesday‘s lows – corporate junk bonds can reverse higher without overcoming Wednesday‘s highs fast, which would still be constructive for a modest S&P 500 upswing.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are indeed refusing to swing lower too much – the sector remains excellently positioned for further gains. For now though, we‘re in a soft patch where the speculative fever is slowly coming out, including out of other commodities. Enter oil.Crude OilCrude oil still remains vulnerable, but would catch a bid quite fast here. Ideally, black gold wouldn‘t break down into the $105 - $100 zone next. I‘m looking for resilience kicking in soon.CopperCopper fake weakness is being reversed, and the red metal is well positioned not to break below Wednesday‘s lows. I‘m not looking for selloff continuation in the CRB Index either.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos remain undecided, and erring on the side of caution – this highlights that the risk appetite‘s return is far from universal.SummaryS&P 500 missed a good opportunity yesterday, but the short-term bullish case isn‘t lost. Stocks actually outperformed credit markets, and given the commodities respite and value doing well, bonds may very well join in the upswing, with a notable hesitation though. That wouldn‘t be a short-term obstacle, take it as the bulls temporarily overpowering the bears – I still think that the selling isn‘t over, and that the downswing would return in the latter half of Mar if (and that‘s a big if) the Fed‘s response to inflation doesn‘t underwhelm the market expectations that have been dialed back considerably over the last two weeks. Token 25bp rate hike, anyone? That wouldn‘t sink stocks dramatically...Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 bulls again missed the opportunity, and credit markets likewise. Not even the virtual certainty of only 25bp hike in Mar is providing much relief to the credit markets. Given that the real economy is considerably slowing down and that recession looks arriving before Q2 ends, the markets continue forcing higher rates (reflecting inflation). In a risk-on environment, value and cyclicals such as financials would be reacting positively, but that‘s not the case right now. At the same time, equal weighted S&P 500 (that‘s RSP) hasn‘t yet broken below its horizontal support above $145, meaning its posture isn‘t as bad as in the S&P 500. Should it however give, we‘re going considerably below 4,000. That‘s why today‘s article is titled hanging by a thread. Precious metals and commodities continue consolidating, and the least volatile appreciation opportunity presents the red metal. And it‘s not only about copper – crude oil market is going through supply realignment, and demand is not yet being destroyed on a massive scale. Coupled with the long-term underinvestment in exploration and drilling (US is no longer such a key producer as was the case in 2019), crude oil prices would continue rising on fundamentals, meaning the appreciation pace of Feb-Mar would slow down. Precious metals would have it easy next as the Fed is bound to be forced to make a U-turn in this very short tightening cycle (they didn‘t get far at all, and inflation expectations have in my view become unanchored already). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bears won the day, and Nasdaq remains in a sorry state. 4,160s are the line in the sand, breaking which would accelerate the downswing. Inflation is cutting into the earnings, and stocks aren‘t going to like the coming Fed‘s message. Credit Markets HYG didn‘t keep at least stable – the pressure in the credit markets is ongoing, and the stock market bulls don‘t have much to rejoice over here. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals downswings are being bought, and are shallow. The sellers are running out of steam, and the opportunity to go somewhat higher next, is approaching. Crude Oil Crude oil is stabilizing, but it may take some time before the upswing continues with renewed vigor. As for modest extension of gains, we won‘t be disappointed. Copper Copper had one more day of fake weakness, but the lost gains of Friday would be made up for next – and given no speculative fever here to speak of, it would have as good lasting power as precious metals. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos remain undecided, but indicate a little breathing room, at least for today. Still, I wouldn‘t call it as risk-on constellation throughout the markets. Summary S&P 500 is getting in a precarious position, but the internals aren‘t (yet) a screaming sell. Credit markets continue leading lower, and the risk-off positioning is impossible to miss. Not even financials are able to take the cue, and rise. It‘s that the rise in yields mirrors the ingrained inflation, and just how entrenched it‘s becoming. No surprise if you were listening to me one year ago – the Fed‘s manouevering room got progressively smaller, and the table is set for the 2H 2022 inflation respite (think 5-6% year end on account of recessionary undercurrents) to be superseded with even higher inflation in 2023, because the Fed would be forced later this year to turn back to easing. Long live the precious metals and commodities super bulls! Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

The Swing Overview – Week 10 The war in Ukraine has been going on for more than two weeks and there is no end in sight. However, the markets seem to have started to adapt to the new situation and the decline in the indices has stopped. Meanwhile, inflation in the Czech Republic rose to 11.1% and the ECB left rates unchanged as expected. There is extreme volatility in oil. After reaching 2008 price levels there has been a larger correction. The conflict in Ukraine   The high-profile meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart Kuleba did not bring a solution to end the war.  Russia continues to expect Ukraine to recognise Crimea as part of Russia, to recognise the independence of republics declared by pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, and not to join NATO. Kuleba commented that Ukraine will not surrender. So, unfortunately, the war continues.   The sanctions, which have caused the Russian economy a shock and which are being extended, should help to end the war. The US announced that it stopped taking Russian oil. However, European leaders have not agreed to stop taking Russian energy because of their current dependence on it. As a lesson from this war, the EU is preparing a plan to stop taking Russian gas by 2027.   Meanwhile, the markets have calmed down a bit and although a resolution to the conflict is nowhere in sight, the markets seem to have come to accept the war as a regional issue that will have a negative but limited impact on global economic growth. This can be seen in US 10-year bond rates, which have started to rise again.   Figure 1: 10-year government bond yield on the 4H chart and USD index on the daily chart   The US inflation at highest levels in 40 years Annual inflation in the US for February was 7.9%, the highest since January 1982. The biggest contributor to inflation is energy, which saw inflation reaching 25.6%, while gasoline prices were up 38%. These figures do not include recent developments in Europe. Continued supply-side logistics problems and strong demand, together with a tight labour market mean that higher inflation will last for a longer period. Figure 2: The inflation in the US   Next week, the US Fed will meet to respond to rising inflation. Interest rates are generally expected to rise by at least 0.25%.    The SP500 index Long-term investors in the SP 500 index track an indicator of the number of companies whose stock prices are above the 50-day average. Figure 3: The SP 500 Index and an indicator of the number of companies in the SP 500 Index above the 50-day moving average   This indicator has recently fallen to a value of 20. In the past, as the figure shows, reaching a value of 20 was mostly followed by an increase in the index. It is therefore likely that investors will now start buying the shares. Amazon shares gained significantly after the company announced a 20:1 stock split. The stock can thus be afforded by more retail investors. As for the current trend in the SP 500 index, it has been moving down recently. This may be a correction to the overall uptrend shown in Figure 3. In Figure 4 we have a short-term view.     Figure 4: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   From a technical analysis perspective, the moving averages suggest that the index is moving down. Investor interest in buying a dip has slowed this decline, which can be seen on the H4 chart where a higher low has formed.  Support is at 4,140 - 4,152. Resistance is at 4,288 - 4,300. The next resistance is at 4,385 - 4,415. The moving averages also serve as resistance.   The inflation in the Czech Republic has surpassed 11% Annual inflation in the Czech Republic for February 2022 was 11.1% (9.9% in January), higher than market expectations (10.3% was expected). This is the highest inflation in the Czech Republic since 1998. The largest contributors to inflation are housing (16%), electricity (22.6%) and gas (28.3%). This figure is likely to force the CNB to raise rates further. The Czech koruna has stalled against the euro at resistance around 25.80 - 25.90. The reason for the weakening of the koruna was geopolitical uncertainty regarding the war in Ukraine. Now it seems that the markets have absorbed this situation and this may be the reason for the appreciation of the koruna that occurred last week. If the war in Ukraine does not escalate further into new unexpected dimensions (such as the disruption of gas supplies to Europe from Russia), then the interest rate differential could again be an important factor, which, due to higher interest rates on the koruna, could lead to the koruna appreciation towards January levels.   Figure 5: EURCZK on the daily chart   Resistance: 25.80 - 25.90.  Support: 24.50 - 24.60 and then around 24.10   ECB and the euro The ECB left interest rates unchanged at 0%. At the same time, it surprised the market by ending its bond buying program in Q3, earlier than previous forecasts. The reaction to the news was a strong appreciation of the euro and it jumped to 1.1120 against the dollar. Eventually, however, the euro ended the session at around 1.10. The reason for this reversal is that tightening at a time when the economy is slowing could lead to stagflation. Strong US inflation data also contributed to the euro sell-off. The US is also much less vulnerable to sanctions against Russia than Europe.   Figure 6: EURUSD on the H4 and daily charts   From a technical point of view, we can see that the EURUSD has stalled right at the resistance band, which is at the 1.11-1.1130 level. The nearest support is 1.08-1.0850.   Crude Oil Brent crude oil reached $136 earlier this week, the highest level since July 2008. This was due to fears of a shortage of black liquid due to the conflict in Ukraine. However, Russia , which produces 7% of global demand, has announced that it will meet its contractual obligations. At the same time, Chevron said there was no shortage of oil and some other producers were ready to increase production if necessary. The EU has also announced that it will not impose an embargo on Russian oil imports, which would otherwise shock the market at a time when oil stocks are reaching multi-year lows, and will not join the US and the UK. Following this, oil began to retreat from its highs.   Figure 7: Brent crude oil on monthly and daily charts Resistance is in the 132-135 range. The nearest support is 103 - 105 USD per barrel. The next support is then in the band around USD 85 - 87 per barrel.  

Crude oil prices are slipping from their recent highest levels. Where could we see the next support located?Oil prices fell sharply on Monday – extending last week’s decline – driven by potential progress in Ukraine-Russia talks.India is considering taking advantage of Russia's discounted crude oil and other commodities offers by settling transactions through the rupee/ruble payment system. Meanwhile, on the eastern side, there is a rush to replace the Russian barrels in the west, but immediate availability is limited.In addition, some fears that OPEC+ countries might not be able to easily increase supply remain, even though the UAE said last week that OPEC+ could double the output to the market (about 800,000 bpd) very quickly. However, this sounds very challenging since OPEC+ countries have already struggled to bring in 400,000 bbd.On the Asian side, a slowdown in demand could have been seen as 17 million residents in Shenzhen, the technological centre of southern China, were locked down on Sunday after reports of epidemic outbreaks linked to the neighbouring territory of Hong Kong, where the Omicron strain seems to have spread. There are growing fears that other cities could follow suit to comply with the country's strict zero-COVID policy, adopted by the government of the People's Republic of China.WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

USDCHF breaks major resistance The US dollar continues upward as the Fed is set to increase its interest rates by 25bp. The rally sped up after it cleared the daily resistance at 0.9360. The bullish breakout may have ended a 9-month long consolidation from the daily chart perspective. The rising trendline confirms the optimism and acts as an immediate support. Solid momentum could propel the greenback to April 2021’s high at 0.9470. Buyers may see a pullback as an opportunity to jump in. 0.9330 is the closest support should this happen. EURGBP tests key resistance The sterling found support after a drop in Britain’s unemployment rate in January. A break above the daily resistance at 0.8400 has prompted sellers to cover, easing the downward pressure. Sentiment remains downbeat unless buyers push the single currency past 0.8475. In turn, this could pave the way for a reversal in the weeks to come. Otherwise, the bears might double down and drive the euro back into its downtrend. A fall below 0.8360 would force early bulls to liquidate and trigger a sell-off to 0.8280. USOIL drops towards key support WTI crude falls back over a new round of ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine. Previously, a bearish RSI divergence indicated a loss of momentum as the price went parabolic. Then a steep fall below 107.00 was a sign of liquidation. Buyers continue to unwind their positions as the price slides back to its pre-war level. The psychological level of 90.00 is an important support on the daily chart. An oversold RSI may attract buying interest in this demand zone. 105.00 is the first resistance before buyers could regain control.

  Crude oil continues to decline due to lowered demand, and the petrodollar seems threatened, losing interest. What is the best strategy to take now?  Oil prices kept falling this week, driven by potential progress in Ukraine-Russia talks and a potential slowdown in the Giant Panda’s (China) economic growth due to epidemic lockdowns in some regions where a surge of Omicron was observed. As I mentioned in my previous article, India considers getting Russian crude oil supplies and other commodities at a reduced price by settling transactions through a rupee/rouble payment system. Meanwhile, we keep getting rumors – notably reported by The Wall Street Journal – that Saudi Arabia and China are also currently discussing pricing some Saudi oil exports directly in yuan. The Chinese are actively seeking to dethrone the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and this latest development suggests that the petrodollar is now under threat. US Dollar Currency Index (DXY) CFD (daily chart) The recent correction in crude oil, happening just seven days after reaching its 14-year highs, might show some signs that the conflict in Ukraine will slow down consumption. On the other hand, if Iranian and Venezuelan barrels flooded the market, we could see crude oil, petroleum products, and distillates turning into new bear markets. WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Brent Crude Oil (BRNK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) That’s all folks for today – happy trading! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 reversed the pre-FOMC decline, and turned up. The upswing didn‘t fizzle out after the conference, quite to the contrary, the credit markets deepened their risk-on posture. I guess stocks are buying the story of 7 rate hikes and balance sheet reduction in 2022 a bit too enthusiastically. Not gonna happen, next quarter‘s GDP data would probably be already negative. Yet Powell says that the risk of recession into next year isn‘t elevated – given the projected tightening, I beg to differ. But of course, Powell is right – it‘s only that we won‘t see all those promised hikes, let alone balance sheet reduction starting in spring. Inflation would retreat a little towards year‘s end (on account of recessionary undercurrents and modest tightening), only to surprise once again in 2023 on the upside. I already wrote so weeks ago – before the East European events. There wouldn‘t enough time to celebrate the notion of vanquishing inflation. For now, stocks can continue the bullish turn – just as commodities and precious metals aren‘t asking permission. The FOMC is over, and real assets can rise, including the badly beaten crude oil. Made a good decision to keep adding to the commodities positions at much lower prices (or turning bullish stocks around the press conference). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 upswing looks like it can go on for a while. It was driven by tech, participating more enthusiastically than value. The conditions are in place for the rally to continue, and it‘s likely that Friday would be a better day than Thursday for the bulls. Credit Markets HYG is catching quite some bid, and credit markets have turned decidedly risk-on. It also looks like a sigh of relief over no 50bp hike – the stock market rally got its hesitant ally. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals upswing can return – and this correction wasn‘t anyway sold heavily into. Needless to say how overdone it was if you look at the miners. $1950s would be reconquered easily. Crude Oil Crude oil bottom looks to be in, and $110s are waiting. Obviously it would take more than a couple of days to return there, but we‘re on the way. Copper Copper is rebounding, and even if other base metals aren‘t yet following too enthusiastically, $4.70 isn‘t far away. Coupled with precious metals returning to more reasonable values, the red metal would continue trending higher. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are leaning risk-on, and the bulls will close this weekend on a good note. Today‘s price action is merely a consolidation in a short-term upswing. Summary S&P 500 bulls got enough fuel from the Fed, and the run can continue – albeit at a slower pace. Importantly, credit markets aren‘t standing in the short-term way, but I think they would carve out a bearish divergence when this rally starts topping out. I‘m not looking for fresh ATHs, the headwinds are too stiff, but as stated within today‘s key analysis, the tech participation is a very encouraging sign for the short-term. The dollar indeed didn‘t make any kind of upside progress to speak of yesterday – and as I have also written at length in yesterday‘s report, the pre-FOMC trading pattern in real assets can be reversed now. Long live precious metals, oil and copper gains! Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

The global equity market also continues to thaw after a pronounced decline since the start of the year. Initial reports of progress on the peace talks were later supported by indications that the US and China are looking to reduce friction between them and avoid new threats against each other. In addition, reassurances from the world’s major central banks over the past week sounded very encouraging. As a result, the Fear and Greed Index has moved out of the extreme fear territory, having bottomed out last week at levels last seen in March 2020. A return to territory above 20 for the index would typically mean a reversal to growth. One should note the increasing divergence between the S&P500 price and the Relative Strength Index, where since late January, S&P500’s lower lows has been marked by RSI’s higher low. The S&P500 has bounced back from its lows by almost 6% and is now testing the 50-day moving average. A consolidation above 4400 would signal the start of a broader, more powerful rally. Now it looks like the bravest already bought when there was “blood on the streets”; now, it is time for a broader range of buyers to step in. Gold and oil prices remain indicators of the military stand-off between Russia and Ukraine. Signs that progress in talks has stalled have put prices of these assets back on an upward trajectory. Brent crude oil was trading more than 11% above levels at the end of trading on March 16 at the start of the day on Friday. A glance at the chart suggests that technically quotations remain within the uptrend that began back in December. This is in line with the supposed progress in de-escalation between Russia and Ukraine. In our view, it is already worth noting that fears over energy supplies are no longer panic-driven but more constructive, lengthening the forecast horizon.

The Mexican dollar has added more than 4% over the last nine days against the US dollar. The upward momentum in this rally is followed by a brief correction but without any noticeable pullback. At first glance, this rally does not seem logical, as oil is cheap for most of this time, hurting oil-exporting Mexico. Nevertheless, in the short term, the MXN has been steadily gaining the following signs of a recovery in demand for risky assets in global markets. Mexico, like the US, finds itself far away from the military conflict in eastern Europe, so the impact on its economy will be much more indirect. Moreover, in the medium term, Mexico will also benefit from the US' rejection of oil from Russia. The states need heavier oil than their own WTI. The cocktail needed for refineries used to be made from Venezuelan oil, which was then replaced by Russian crude. Now the replacements will be Canadian and Mexican, which should benefit production levels and support MXN's strength through higher export revenues. In the coming days, the USDMXN will head for another test of 20.0. Below this level, the pair could not sustainably consolidate in 2021. If this situation proves sustainable, the Bank of Mexico will have more room to fight inflation through policy tightening without fear of strangling the economy too much. If so, the USDMXN may only be in the middle of its strengthening against the dollar, which could last for several quarters.

WTI has stabilised in a thin $102-$106ish range and at current levels in the $103.00s trades broadly flat. WTI has found a decent floor above $100 again after a rollercoaster week as traders mull Russia supply risk. More evidence of OPEC+ undershooting its output quotas (in February) are contributing to fears of a near-term shortage. Front-month WTI futures have stabilised in a $102-$106ish per barrel range on Friday amid a comparatively quiet end to what has been a rollercoaster week. Prices were sent crashing as low as the $93.00s from near $110 amid China lockdown fears as the country’s zero-Covid approach struggles to contain Omicron, but has since regained a solid footing back above $100 amid continued worries about crude oil shortages as a result of Western sanctions on the Russian economy. Momentum towards a new nuclear deal between major Western powers and Iran also seems to have waned somewhat. At current levels in the $103.00s, WTI is trading flat on the day but remains on course to post an on-the-week drop of more than $5.0, which would mark a second successive weekly loss. While prices do remain substantially lower versus last week’s highs in the $130 area, WTI currently still trades with a gain of more than $11.00 since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In the absence of an announcement of a Russo-Ukrainian peace deal, which still appears to be some way off, analysts suspect risks remain tilted to the upside for oil. According to a Reuters report on Friday, OPEC+ continued to undershoot its output quota in February and by an even larger margin than in January. Meanwhile, the major OPEC nations with space capacity (Saudi Arabia and the UAE) haven’t shown signs this week of caving to pressure from major oil importers (like the US) to increase output at a faster rate, despite the fact that, according to the International Energy Agency, oil markets could lose as much as 3M barrels per day in supply from Russia from April. All signs point to WTI continuing to trade at elevated levels for the foreseeable future as supply adjusts higher from non-Russian sources, which will take time.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT energy data is the pullback in the WTI Crude Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the WTI Crude Oil futures dropped this week for a second consecutive week and has fallen in seven out of the past eight weeks. The spec crude position has declined by a total of -43,966 contracts over the past eight weeks and speculator bets are now at a three-week low. The speculator strength index, current speculator standing compared to past three years where above 80 percent is bullish extreme and below 20 percent is bearish extreme, shows that speculator bets are extremely bearish right now compared to the past with a strength score of just 3.5 percent. The energy market with higher speculator bets was just the Bloomberg Commodity Index (3,789 contracts). The energy markets with lower speculator bets were WTI Crude Oil (-19,850 contracts), Brent Crude Oil (-7,249 contracts), Natural Gas (-8,147 contracts), Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts) and the Gasoline (-3,298 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,850,794 0 341,815 4 -382,602 90 40,787 72 Gold 617,605 51 261,788 71 -297,441 27 35,653 65 Silver 159,571 25 51,554 74 -67,579 33 16,025 36 Copper 183,170 14 19,030 56 -26,717 41 7,687 70 Palladium 6,992 2 -1,009 16 220 78 789 91 Platinum 67,727 35 17,932 28 -25,692 72 7,760 70 Natural Gas 1,082,746 0 -146,560 35 105,856 64 40,704 82 Brent 192,679 34 -18,961 79 17,343 22 1,618 31 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 745,345 32 217,599 84 -193,958 20 -23,641 31 Corn 1,504,159 22 507,206 95 -468,758 5 -38,448 21 Coffee 224,693 3 45,500 82 -48,838 22 3,338 11 Sugar 818,877 1 156,580 69 -188,036 33 31,456 47 Wheat 339,904 2 10,930 56 -5,252 36 -5,678 91   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 341,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,850 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 361,665 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.0 37.8 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.6 58.5 2.3 – Net Position: 341,815 -382,602 40,787 – Gross Longs: 444,601 700,410 83,830 – Gross Shorts: 102,786 1,083,012 43,043 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.5 90.4 72.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.6 12.8 -7.0   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -18,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,712 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.0 41.3 4.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.8 32.3 3.2 – Net Position: -18,961 17,343 1,618 – Gross Longs: 42,390 79,663 7,742 – Gross Shorts: 61,351 62,320 6,124 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.4 22.2 31.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.1 2.7 -21.2   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -146,560 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -138,413 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.2 43.3 5.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.7 33.5 2.0 – Net Position: -146,560 105,856 40,704 – Gross Longs: 240,482 468,705 62,435 – Gross Shorts: 387,042 362,849 21,731 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.6 64.3 82.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.0 4.9 27.7   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 43,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,298 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,900 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.5 52.5 7.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.4 69.5 5.4 – Net Position: 43,602 -48,914 5,312 – Gross Longs: 76,383 151,239 20,732 – Gross Shorts: 32,781 200,153 15,420 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.5 88.1 43.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.1 27.7 -35.4   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9 – Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979 – Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210 – Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -10,780 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,569 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 48.9 18.5 1.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 67.5 1.2 0.1 – Net Position: -10,780 9,985 795 – Gross Longs: 28,304 10,697 859 – Gross Shorts: 39,084 712 64 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 15.0 to 1 13.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 66.2 31.7 47.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.7 -16.4 4.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Sanctions keep affecting the supply diversification. It’s not sure how will the following days shape so civilians, investors and big companies are following, we may say, indefinite fluctuations of Brent and WTI. The price has increased by ca. 20% since the beginning of the war on February 24th. As the chart below shows the price was interacting with the news about crude oil inventories, testimonies of countries’ leaders and all the communication. Crude Oil Price Chart – 24/02-21/03 Today crude oil has gained ca. X% opening higher as the war goes on and there’s no significant signal that it’s coming to an end. Ukrainians don’t surrender in Mariupol and, according to Bloomberg, Kremlin says that consequences of sanctions will seriously impact Europe. Crude Oil Price Chart 21/03/22 – [UPDATE: 14:05 GMT] It’s not sure what can we expect from the following days. A thing we can be sure of is that we should follow the Crude Oil Inventories release on Wednesday. Follow us on Twitter to check the markets’ reaction and don’t miss a thing! Source: Investing.com, Bloomberg.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com

S&P 500 did really well through quad witching, and the same goes for credit markets. 4-day streak of non-stop gains – very fast ones. Short squeeze characteristics in the short run, makes me think this rally fizzles out before the month ends – 4,600 would hold. We‘re likely to make a higher low next, and that would be followed by 4-6 weeks of rally continuation before the bears come back with real force again. July would present a great buying opportunity in this wild year of a giant trading range. As I wrote yesterday: (…) The paper asset made it through quad witching in style - both stocks and bonds. The risk-on sentiment however didn't sink commodities or precious metals. Wednesday's FOMC brought worries over the Fed sinking real economy growth but Powell's conference calmed down fears through allegedly no recession risks this year, ascribing everything to geopolitics. Very convenient, but the grain of truth is that the Fed wouldn't indeed jeopardize GDP growth this year - that's the context of how to read the allegedly 7 rate hikes and balance sheet shrinking this year still. Not gonna happen as I stated on Thursday already. Such are my short- and medium-term thoughts on stocks. Copper remains best positioned to continue rising with relatively little volatility while crude oil isn‘t yet settled (its good times would continue regardless of the weak volume rally of last two days, which is making me a little worried). Precious metals are still basing, and would continue moving higher best on the Fed underperforming in its hawkish pronouncements. No way they‘re hiking 7 times this year and shrinking balance sheet at the same time as I wrote on Thursday – Treasury yields say they‘ll take on inflation more in 2023. 2022 is a mere warm-up. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is now past the 4,400 – 4,450 zone, and hasn‘t yet consolidated. This week would definitely though not be as bullish as the one just gone by – the bulls will be challenged a little. Credit Markets HYG eked out more gains, but the air is slowly becoming thinner. As the sentiment turns more bullish through no deep decline over the coming few days, that‘s when junk bonds would start wavering. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals aren‘t turning down for good here – I think they‘re deciphering the Fed story of hiking slower than intended, which in effect gives inflation a new lease on life. Not that it was wavering, though. More upside in gold and silver to come. Crude Oil Crude oil is rising again, but look for a measured upswing that‘s not free from headwinds. While I think we would climb above $110 still, I‘m sounding a more cautious note given the decreasing volume – I would like to see more conviction next. Copper Copper is behaving, and would continue rising reliably alongside other commodities. It‘s also the best play considering downside protection at the moment. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin isn‘t recovering Sunday‘s setback – but the Ethereum upswing bodes well for risk taking today, even that doesn‘t concern cryptos all too much. Summary S&P 500 has a bit more to run before running into headwinds, which would happen still this week. Credit markets are a tad too optimistic, and rising yields would leave a mark especially on tech. Value, energy and materials are likely to do much better. Crude oil is bound to be volatile over the coming weeks, but still rising and spiking – not yet settled. Copper and precious metals present better appreciation opportunities when looking at their upcoming volatility. Within today‘s key analysis, I‘ve covered the path of stocks, so do have a good look at the opening part. Finally, cryptos likewise paint the picture of risk-on trades not being over just yet. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Since the start of the year, the performance of emerging market currencies mirrors what we saw in 2021, but with more polarisation. The Brazilian real has been the growth leader against the dollar since the start of the year, gaining around 13%. It is followed by the South African rand and Colombian peso, gaining just over 7%. Among the hardest hit is the Russian Rouble (-33%), but also the Egyptian Pound (-14%) and the Turkish Lira (-10%). In our view, this polarisation only promises to increase in the coming months.Commodity-exporting countries have benefited amid a global jump in energy and agricultural commodity prices. Brazil gets a chance to seriously boost its oil sales to the US amid a supply embargo from Russia. Though net oil exporters, the states must buy significant amounts of heavy crude to run their refineries. Until 2019, oil from Venezuela was used for the right blend, subsequently replaced by Russian crude. Now it is being replaced by oil from Brazil, which promises a significant increase in exports and supports the exchange rate of the Brazilian real.The South African rand is in demand, receiving dividends from last year's monetary tightening and a surge in metal prices since the start of the year. As most global markets look for alternatives to the Russian metal, the ZAR is enjoying demand from speculators in anticipation of increased exports from South Africa for political reasons.We may well be seeing a global reversal in the attitude towards commodity exporters' currencies, as even in the event of a military settlement, there is no expectation of a quick recovery of previous economic ties.At the other end of the spectrum are countries' currencies that depend on imports of oil and agricultural products. Egypt buys most of its wheat consumption from Russia and Ukraine, and rising prices severely damage the balance of payments. Egypt's central bank has responded by tightening monetary policy to suppress inflation. But such steps tend to hurt economic growth. Turkey imported almost all its gas from Russia and Azerbaijan and bought its wheat from Ukraine and Russia. Price jumps and supply-chain disruptions will be costly for the economy and cause increased pressure on the Turkish lira.In addition to the prospect of inflated import volumes, Turkey and Egypt face a severe drop in revenues from the tourism industry, as Russia and Ukraine have provided a significant flow of tourists.

WTI has eased back from APac session highs in the $113.00s to under $110 amid fresh profit-taking. The EU is reportedly split over whether or not to press ahead with a Russian oil import ban. After rising as high as the $113.00s during Asia Pacific trade as oil market participants responded to chatter about a potential EU ban on Russian oil imports and weekend news of disruptions to Saudi energy infrastructure, front-month WTI futures have eased back somewhat. Prices are now back to trading beneath $110 per barrel, down about $3.50 versus Monday’s closing highs in the upper $112.00s. That still leaves prices higher by more than $15 versus last week's lows, though still some $20 lower versus earlier monthly highs. Reports that EU foreign ministers are split over whether to press ahead with the Russian oil embargo likely prompted some profit-taking, with Germany reportedly still of the view that the bloc remains too dependent on Russian energy to take such a step. “The proposed ban is still some way from becoming policy because a significant number of EU nations oppose the ban... Still, the fact that the ban is being discussed at all is a significant shift” said analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Looking ahead, geopolitical developments remain in the forefront, though traders will also be focused on the latest weekly Private API crude oil inventory data release at 2130 GMT. Oil traders continue to fret about uncertainty regarding the extent of loss of Russian supply at a time when global oil reserves are at multi-year lows.

All the markets’ old boys like crude, gold and silver are still vulnerable for the mix of the factors shaping the prices. Naturally, stocks seems to be more dynamic as the recent events show. China stocks have been fluctuating recently as, among others, COVID-19 and negotiations with the USA were topping the headlines. Global sanctions affect WTI/BRENT price – the supplies from Russia are about to be limited in Europe so the price is to rise again. Going back to gold - Hawkish rhetoric of Fed keeps precious metals investors uncertain. There’s no doubt safe-haven must be watched all the time to decide if it’s the best moment to sell or buy. Crude Oil – WTI Luckily crude oil price has decreased by 3% over last 24 hours and it’s probably ‘waiting’ for the next significant geopolitical updates. According to Reuters, some countries of the EU are still hesitating to stop importing crude oil from Russia. Gold – XAUUSD Yes, price of gold has decreased by almost 1%, but… it could be worse as Powell doesn’t hesitate to present hawkish comments. Silver – XAGUSD Silver price chart shows a significant decline which has helped it to decrease by 1.7% over last day. As wrote above, Powell testimony will let us visualise a more detailed outlook. Source/Data: Reuters, TradingView.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com

Investors and traders alike are concerned about what investments they should make on behalf of their portfolios and retirement accounts. We, at TheTechnicalTraders.com, continue to monitor stocks and commodities closely due to the Russia-Ukraine War, market volatility, surging inflation, and rising interest rates. Several of our subscribers have asked if changes in monitor policy may lead to a recession as higher rates take a bigger bite out of corporate profits.As technical traders, we look exclusively at the price action to provide specific clues as to the current trend or a potential change in trend. We review our charts for both stocks and commodities to see what we can learn from the most recent price action. Before we dive into that, let’s review the various stages of the market; with special attention given to expansion vs. contraction in a rising interest rate environment which you can see illustrated below.PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR STOCK PORTFOLIOWe are keeping an especially close eye on the price action of the SPY ETF. The current resistance for the SPY is the 475 top that happened around January 6, 2022. This top was 212.5% of the March 23, 2020, low that was put in at the height of the Covid global pandemic.The SPY found support in the 410 area at the end of February. If you recall (or didn't know), 410 was the Fibonacci 1.618 or 161.8% percent of the Covid 2020 price drop. Now, after experiencing a nice rally back, of a little over 50%, we are waiting to see if the rally can continue or if rotation will occur, sending the price back lower.COMMODITY MARKETS SURGEDThe commodity markets experienced a tremendous rally due to fast-rising inflation, especially energy, metals, and food prices.The GSG ETF price action shows that we recently touched 200%, or the doubling of the April 21, 2020, low. Immediately following, similar to the SPY, the GSCI commodity index promptly sold off only to then find substantial buying support at the Fibonacci 1.618 or 161.8 percent of the starting low price of the bull trend. Resistance for the GSG is at 26, and support is 21.A STRENGTHENING US DOLLARThe strengthening US dollar can be attributed to investors seeking a safe haven from geopolitical events, surging inflation, and the Fed beginning to raise rates. The US Dollar is still considered the primary reserve currency as the greatest portion of forex reserves held by central banks are in dollars. Furthermore, most commodities, including gold and crude oil, are also denominated in dollars.Consider the following statement from the Bank of International Settlements www.bis.org ‘Triennial Central Bank Survey’ published September 16, 2019: “The US dollar retained its dominant currency status, being on one side of 88% of all trades.” The report also highlighted, “Trading in FX markets reached $6.6 trillion per day in April 2019, up from $5.1 trillion three years earlier.” That’s a lot of dollars traded globally and confirms that we need to stay current on the dollars price action.Multinational companies are especially keeping a close eye on the dollar as any major shift in global money flows will seriously negatively impact their net profit and subsequent share value.The following chart by www.finviz.com provides us with a current snapshot of the relative performance of the US dollar vs. major global currencies over the past year:KNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, AND APPLICATION ARE NEEDEDIt is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and somewhat surprisingly, we entered five new trades earlier this week, two of which have now hit their first profit target levels. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Situation in Europe remains global number one as war persists. Even President of The USA, Joe Biden travels to Brussels and Poland to discuss the ongoing war. The day begins with the highly-awaited release of UK Retail Sales which takes place 7 a.m. Previously this indicator amounted to 1.9%. Two hours later we head to Germany, when German Ifo Business Climate Index goes public. The previous one hit 98.9. One hour later, so at 10 a.m. EU Leaders meet and are expected to continue talks linked with the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war which keeps people, but also investors, companies and markets as a whole uncertain. Natural gas price got back to high levels, crude oil price rises as well. Will there be any new sanctions? In the afternoon it’s time to have a look at the US Pending Home Sales (MoM) indicator which is presented at 2 p.m. hitting -5.7% previously. Source/Data: Investing.com Economic Calendar

While everybody was wondering about the end of the COVID-19 pandemy and Russia invaded Ukraine what started affecting the markets. Obviously natural gas and crude oil price are volatile recently. EU leaders accompanied by Joe Biden discuss outlooks and most probably next sanctions. As we wrote in the report about natural gas price the rise started to confuse the world few days after the invasion. It seems that all sanctions and fail of ceasefire negotiations made the crude oil price rise gain momentum. In the middle of March prices got back to the levels of the beginning of the month, but aggressive rhetoric of Russia made BRENT and WTI trading higher again. Let’s have a look at the Crude Oil Price monthly chart (courtesy of TradingView.com) 5-days chart (courtesy of TradingView.com) of Crude Oil Price shows a significant rise in recent days Data/Source: TradingView.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com

Current levels of oil and petroleum products are high. Given that, what can explain such a surprising drop in US crude inventories?Energy Market UpdatesCommercial crude oil reserves in the United States fell much more than expected in the week ended March 18, according to figures released on Wednesday by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).US crude inventories have shrunk by more than 2.5 million barrels, which implies greater demand and is obviously another bullish factor for crude oil prices. Such a decline in inventories is particularly remarkable as the American strategic reserves have also recorded a significant drop. This is the 25th consecutive week of falling strategic reserves since the Biden administration started to make those adjustments in an attempt to relieve the market.(Source: Investing.com)WTI Crude Oil (CLK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart)Furthermore, some additional figures extracted from the same EIA report were released and surprised the markets.These are US Gasoline Reserves, which plunged by about 2.95 million barrels over a week, while the market was not even forecasting a two-million decline.(Source: Investing.com)Thus, US exports jumped by more than 30% compared to the previous week, not only due to large flows to Europe to replace Russian barrels, but also marked by a significant rebound in Asian demand.RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)Beware that a NATO summit, a G7 summit, and a European Union summit are being held on Thursday, when the various countries could set a new round of sanctions against Moscow.So, how will black gold progress from now on? Do you think that the on-going negotiations with Iran and Venezuela could flood the market with additional barrels? Let us know in the comments!That’s all folks for today. Happy trading!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index. It is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates that are utilized to generate a 30-day forward projection of volatility. The VIX allows us to gauge market sentiment or the degree of fear among market participants. As the Volatility Index VIX goes up, fear increases, and as it goes down, fear dissipates.Commodities and equities are both showing renewed strength on the heels of global interest rate increases. Inflation shows no sign of abating as energy, metals, food products, and housing continues their upward bias.During the last 18-months, the VIX has been trading between its upper resistance of 36.00 and its lower support of 16.00. As the Volatility Index VIX falls, fear subsides, and money flows back into stocks.VIX – VOLATILITY S&P 500 INDEX – CBOE – DAILY CHARTSPY RALLIES +10%The SPY has enjoyed a sharp rally back up after touching its Fibonacci 1.618% support based on its 2020 Covid price drop. Money has been flowing back into stocks as investors seem to be adapting to the current geopolitical environment and the change in global central bank lending rate policy.Resistance on the SPY is the early January high near 475, while support remains solidly in place at 414. March marks the 2nd anniversary of the 2020 Covid low that SPY made at 218.26 on March 23, 2020.SPY – SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST - ARCA – DAILY CHARTBERKSHIRE HATHAWAY RECORD-HIGH $538,949!Berkshire Hathaway is up +20.01% year to date compared to the S&P 500 -4.68%. Berkshire’s Warren Buffet has also been on a shopping spree, and investors seem to be comforted that he is buying stocks again. Buffet reached a deal to buy insurer Alleghany (y) for $11.6 billion and purchased nearly a 15% stake in Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $8 billion.These acquisitions seem to be well-timed as insurers and banks tend to benefit from rising interest rates, and Occidental generates the bulk of its cash flow from the production of crude oil.As technical traders, we look exclusively at the price action to provide specific clues as to the current trend or a potential change in trend. With that said, Berkshire is a classic example of not fighting the market. As Berkshire continues to make new highs, its’ trend is up!BRK.A – BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. - NYSE – DAILY CHARTCOMMODITY DEMAND REMAINS STRONGInflation continues to run at 40-year highs, and it appears that it will take more than one FED rate hike to subdue prices. Since price is King, we definitely want to ride this trend and not fight it. It is always nice to buy on a pullback, but the energy markets at this point appear to be rising exponentially. The XOP ETF gave us some nice buying opportunities earlier at the Fibonacci 0.618% $71.78 and the 0.93% $93.13 of the COVID 2020 range high-low.Remember, the trend is your friend, as many a trader has gone broke trying to pick or sell a top before its time! Well-established uptrends like the XOP are perfect examples of how utilizing a trailing stop can keep a trader from getting out of the market too soon but still offer protection in case of a sudden trend reversal.XOP – SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORE & PRODUCT – ARCA – DAILY CHARTKNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, AND APPLICATION ARE NEEDEDIt is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and somewhat surprisingly, we entered five new trades last week, four of which have now hit their first profit target levels. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Furthermore, successfully trading is not limited to when to buy or sell stocks or commodities. Money and risk management play a critical role in becoming a consistently profitable trader. Correct position sizing utilizing stop-loss orders helps preserve your investment capital and allows traders to manage their portfolios according to their desired risk parameters. Additionally, scaling out of positions by taking profits and moving stop-loss orders to breakeven can complement ones’ success.WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT energy data is the recent decline in the Heating Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the Heating Oil futures has dropped for two consecutive weeks and in three out of the past four weeks. The spec crude position has declined by a total of -9,420 contracts over the past four weeks and speculators have now pushed their current net positioning to the lowest level in six weeks. Heating Oil speculator positions are currently (+6,455 contracts) at the lower end of their range after averaging approximately +20,000 contracts each week over the whole of 2021. Heating Oil prices, meanwhile, have seen price surges (hitting multi-year highs) in the past few months due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine but did retrace lower this week with a decline by approximately -8.00 percent for the week at Friday’s close. The energy markets that saw higher speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (11,926 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (2,972 contracts). The energy markets that saw lower speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-21,238 contracts), Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts), Gasoline (-8,168 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (-554 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-29-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,795,929 1 318,731 0 -360,162 99 41,431 73 Gold 574,521 39 257,596 70 -285,937 30 28,341 45 Silver 147,370 14 48,240 70 -61,372 39 13,132 19 Copper 203,692 29 30,581 64 -37,333 34 6,752 64 Palladium 6,720 1 -2,011 10 1,364 84 647 81 Platinum 61,807 25 14,001 22 -20,754 79 6,753 56 Natural Gas 1,100,690 4 -137,411 37 92,762 60 44,649 92 Brent 188,542 30 -25,220 69 21,609 29 3,611 58 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 755,139 34 206,469 81 -178,764 24 -27,705 24 Corn 1,515,106 24 482,092 92 -424,699 11 -57,393 10 Coffee 227,547 6 38,689 77 -42,092 27 3,403 12 Sugar 819,459 1 161,581 70 -202,758 30 41,177 59 Wheat 341,224 3 13,559 59 -9,435 32 -4,124 91   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 318,731 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,238 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 339,969 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.4 36.5 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.6 56.5 2.5 – Net Position: 318,731 -360,162 41,431 – Gross Longs: 420,097 654,965 85,767 – Gross Shorts: 101,366 1,015,127 44,336 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 99.4 73.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.8 12.7 -3.5   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -25,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,666 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.2 44.2 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.6 32.7 2.5 – Net Position: -25,220 21,609 3,611 – Gross Longs: 38,169 83,276 8,330 – Gross Shorts: 63,389 61,667 4,719 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.9 29.2 58.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.9 -1.1 -5.9   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -137,411 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,926 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -149,337 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.6 42.7 6.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.1 34.3 2.2 – Net Position: -137,411 92,762 44,649 – Gross Longs: 249,135 470,232 68,418 – Gross Shorts: 386,546 377,470 23,769 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 37.3 60.1 92.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.8 -2.3 33.2   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 40,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,168 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,370 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.1 53.0 7.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.0 69.7 4.9 – Net Position: 40,202 -47,775 7,573 – Gross Longs: 74,554 151,056 21,630 – Gross Shorts: 34,352 198,831 14,057 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 11.0 89.2 56.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.8 25.0 -15.4   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9 – Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979 – Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210 – Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -9,348 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,972 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,320 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 70.8 23.8 2.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 97.2 0.0 0.3 – Net Position: -9,348 8,415 933 – Gross Longs: 25,002 8,415 1,022 – Gross Shorts: 34,350 0 89 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 inf to 1 11.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.7 25.7 52.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.4 -30.9 11.7   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

The Swing Overview - Week 14 Equity indices weakened last week on news of rising interest rates and a tightening of the US economy. The euro is also weakening not only because it is under pressure from the ongoing war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, but also from the uncertainty of the upcoming French presidential election. The outbreak of the coronavirus in China has fuelled negative sentiment in oil, where the market fears an excess of supply over demand. The US dollar was the clear winner in this environment.  The USD index strengthens along with US bond yields According to the US Fed meeting minutes released on Wednesday, the Fed is prepared to reduce its balance sheet by the USD 95 billion per month from May this year.  In addition, the Fed is ready to raise interest rates at a pace of 0.50%. Thus, at the next meeting, which will take place in May, we can expect a rate increase from the current 0.50% to 1.00%. This option is already included in asset prices.     As a result of this the yields on US 10-year bonds continued to rise and has already reached 2.64%. The US dollar in particular is benefiting from this development and is approaching the level 100. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart   Equity indices under pressure from high interest rates The prospect of aggressive interest rate hikes is having a negative impact on investor sentiment, particularly for growth stocks. However, it is positive for financial sector stocks. High yields on the US bonds are attractive to investors, who will thus prefer this yield to, for example, investments in gold, which does not yield any interest. Figure 2: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   The US SP 500 index is currently moving in a downward correction, which is shown on the H4 chart. Prices could move in a downward channel that is formed by a lower high and a lower low. The SP 500 according to the H4 chart is below the SMA 100 moving average, which also indicates bearish tendencies.   The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is in the range of 4,513 - 4,520. The next resistance is around 4,583 - 4,600. A support is at 4 450 - 4 455.   German DAX index A declining channel has also formed for the DAX index. The price is below the SMA 100 moving average on the H4 chart, where at the same time the SMA 100 got below the EMA 50, which is a strong bearish signal. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart According to the H4 chart, the nearest resistance is in the range between 14,340 - 14,370. There is also a confluence with the moving average EMA 50 here. The next resistance is at 14,590 - 14,630. A support is at 14,030 - 14,100.   The DAX is influenced by the upcoming French presidential election, the outcome of which could have a major impact on the European economy.    The euro remains in a downtrend The Euro is negatively affected by the sanctions against Russia, which will also have a negative impact on the European economy. In addition, uncertainty has arisen regarding the French presidential election. Although the victory of the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen over the defending President Emmanuel Macron is still unlikely, the polls suggest that it is within the statistical margin of error. And this makes markets nervous.   A Le Pen victory would be bad for the economy and France's overall international image. It would weaken the European Union. That's why this news sent the euro below 1.09. The first round of elections will be held on Sunday April 10 and the second round on April 24, 2022.    Figure 4: EURUSD on H4 and daily chart. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 1.0930 - 1.0950. The significant resistance according to the daily chart is 1.1160 - 1.1190.  A support is at 1.080 - 1.0850.   According to the technical analysis, the euro is in a downtrend, but as it is currently at significant support levels, any short speculation could be considered only after the current support is broken and retested to validate the break.   The crude oil continues to descend The oil prices fell for a third straight day after the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) announced it would release 60 million barrels of its members' reserves to the open market, adding to an earlier reserve release of 180 million barrels announced by the United States. In total, 240 million barrels would be delivered to the market over six months, resulting in a net inflow of 1.33 million barrels a day.   That would be more than triple the monthly production additions of 400,000 barrels per day by the world's oil producers under the OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia and controlled by Russia.   Adding to the negative sentiment on oil was a coronavirus outbreak in Shanghai, the largest in two years, which forced a more than week-long closure of China's second-largest city. This raises concerns about demand among oil consumers in the Chinese economy, which has a significant impact on prices. Figure 5: Brent crude oil on the H4 and daily charts. Brent crude oil is thus approaching support, which according to the H4 chart is at around USD 97-99 per barrel. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at the price of USD 106 per barrel. The more significant resistance is at USD 111-112 per barrel of the Brent crude.   

The Swing Overview - Week 13 Equity indices closed the first quarter of 2022 in a loss under the influence of geopolitical tensions. The Czech koruna strengthened as a result of the CNB raising interest rates to 5%, the highest since 2001. The US supports the oil market by releasing 180 million barrels from its strategic reserves. War in Ukraine   The war in Ukraine has been going on for more than a month and there is still no end in sight. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations have not led to a result yet. Meanwhile, Russian President Putin has decided that European countries will pay for Russian gas in rubles. This has been described as blackmailing from Europe's point of view and is not in line with the gas supply contracts that have been concluded. A way around this is to open an account with Gazprombank where the gas can be paid for in euros. Geopolitical tensions are therefore still ongoing and are having a negative effect on stock markets.   Equity indices have had their worst quarter since 2020 US and European equities posted their biggest quarterly loss since the beginning of 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic broke out and the global economy was in crisis. Portfolio rebalancing at the end of the quarter boosted demand for bonds and kept yields lower.   On Tuesday, the yield curve briefly inverted, meaning that short-term bonds yields were higher than  long-term bonds. An inverted yield curve is a signal of a recession according to many economists. It means that future corporate profits should be rather behind expectations and stock prices might reflect it.    On Thursday, the S&P 500 index fell 1.6%. The Dow Jones industrial index also fell by 1.6% and the Nasdaq Composite index fell by 1.5%. The European STOXX 600 index closed down by 0.94%. Even after last week's rally, as investors celebrated signs of progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, the S&P 500 index is still down 5% for the first three months, its worst quarterly performance in two years.  Figure 1: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   The SP 500 index reached the resistance level at 4,600, which it broke, but then closed below it. This indicates a false break. The new nearest resistance is in the range of 4,625 - 4,635. Support is at 4,453 and then significant support is at 4,386 - 4,422.   German DAX index The DAX index has rallied since March 8 and has reached the resistance level which is in the 14,800 - 15,000 range.  However, the index started to weaken in the second half of the week. The news that Russia will demand payments for gas in rubles, which Western countries refuse, contributed to the index's weakening. The fear of gas supply disruption then caused a sell-off.    Figure 2: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart Resistance is between 14,800 - 15,000 according to the daily chart. The nearest support according to the H4 chart is at 14,100 - 14,200.   The euro remains in a downtrend The euro was supported at the beginning of the week by hopes for peace in Ukraine. However, by the end of the week, the Ukrainian President warned that Russia was preparing for more attacks and the Euro started to weaken. News of Russia's demand to pay for gas in rubles had a negative effect on the euro as well. Figure 3: The EURUSD on the H4 and daily charts. From a technical point of view, we can see that the EURUSD according to the daily chart has reached the resistance formed by EMA 50 (yellow line). The new horizontal resistance is in the area of 1.1160 - 1.1180. Support is at 1.0950 - 1.0980. The euro still remains in a downtrend.   CNB raised the interest rate In the fight against the inflation, the CNB decided to further raise the interest rate by 0.50%. Currently, the base rate is at 5%, where it was last in 2001. The interest rate hike is aimed at slowing inflation by slowing demand through higher borrowing costs.   Figure 4: Interest rate developments in the Czech Republic In addition, a strong koruna should support the slowdown in inflation. The koruna could appreciate especially against the euro due to higher interest rates. However, the strengthening of the koruna is conditional on the war in Ukraine not escalating further.  We can see that the koruna against the euro is approaching a support around 24.30. The low of this year was 24.10 korunas for one euro. Figure 5: USD/CZK and EUR/CZK on the daily chart. The koruna is also strengthening against the US dollar. Here, however, the situation is slightly different in that the US Fed is also raising rates and is expected to continue raising rates until the end of the year. Therefore, the interest rate differential between the koruna and the dollar is less favourable than between the koruna and the euro. The appreciation of the koruna against the dollar is therefore slower.   Currently, the koruna is at the support of 22 koruna per dollar. The next support is at 21.70 and then 21.10 koruna per dollar, where this year's low is.   Oil has weakened Oil prices saw the deep losses after the news that the United States will release up to 180 million barrels from its strategic petroleum reserves as part of measures to reduce fuel prices. US crude oil fell 5.4% and Brent crude oil fell 6.6% on Thursday after the news. Figure 6: Brent crude oil on a monthly and daily chart We can see that a strong bearish pinbar was formed on a  monthly chart. The nearest support is in the zone 103 – 106 USD per barel. A strong support is around 100 USD per barel which will be closely watched.  

Today we’re looking at oil as price looks to have started to stall after a steady two-week decline. Key support continues to hold but seller signs remain. After the initial pullback buyers once again got price back into the 100 dollar area. This was short-lived after the US released emergency crude to overload supply and cut oil prices lower. The news had an immediate effect as oil prices fell back below the 100 dollar price level. At this stage, sellers look to be having a real issue at closing below $95.25. You can see below on the daily chart the strong level of support that has formed. This level runs back to February when it switched from minor support to the current key support. We are also noticing a new double bottom that has also started from around the support area. A new trend lower remains in play and we have seen two LHs set up during the decline. The CCI is also in bearish territory trading below the 0 line. So far sellers are missing a new LL to qualify the pattern of trend. This is where the demand/support level really comes into play. If buyers can maintain it we could see a new move higher develop. A new HL off the level backs up the level and growing buyer strength. A breakthrough with a close below support sets up the idea that the current move lower is not over and the 90 dollar area could be a lower target. The next several sessions should be interesting for oil and hopefully, give us an idea of the direction to come. We are wondering if we do see a new rally above 100, will the US release more oil to quash it? Oil D1 Chart The post CFD News: Oil, can buyers continue to hold from 95.50? appeared first on Eightcap.

Financial markets are likely beginning to ride a wave of fear that interest rates will be raised quickly, which could increase borrowing costs and could make it more expensive to raise dollars. Already last week, especially on Friday, the situation in the financial markets seemed very tense The downward wave seems to be sweeping through both the stock, commodity and cryptocurrency markets all at the same time. It's been a long time since we've seen every asset class inflicted with a single day of losses, except for the US dollar and US bonds. Already last week, especially on Friday, the situation in the financial markets seemed very tense. U.S. stock indexes seemed to be falling by nearly 3 percent, and today we could see a potential continuation of this downward wave. Before noon, contracts in the United States seem to have lost about 1 percent. Meanwhile, in Europe, the scale of falls seems to be greater, as the German DAX falls by almost 2 percent, and the Euro Stoxx 50 by more than 2.5 percent. Read next (by Conotoxia): (USD) Dollar Index - Fed Floors It! Hawkish Rhetoric And Interest Rate Hike? British Pound In Crisis? GBP/USD Affected By Weak Retail Sales Data!| FXMAG.COM The price of a barrel of WTI crude oil is down almost 5 percent today, to around $97 Declines in stock prices may also be accompanied by declines in commodity prices. The price of a barrel of WTI crude oil is down almost 5 percent today, to around $97. As a result, the price may reach its lowest level in nearly two weeks amid growing concerns that prolonged restrictions in China and sharp interest rate hikes in the U.S. will have a negative impact on global economic growth and fuel demand. Monday's declines extended last week's decline in U.S. crude as demand concerns outweighed worries about limited global supply. Demand for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel in China in April is expected to fall 20 percent year-on-year, Bloomberg reported, equivalent to a drop in oil consumption of about 1.2 million barrels a day. On top of that, fears of a global economic slowdown or stagflation could also weigh on oil prices. The EUR/USD exchange rate could thus fall to levels last seen in March 2020, approaching 1.07 With high expectations for Fed action, the US dollar seems to be gaining in value. The EUR/USD exchange rate could thus fall to levels last seen in March 2020, approaching 1.07. The entire US Dollar Index could remain above the 100-point level. Read next (by Conotoxia): How To Hedge Against Inflation? Crypto? Is Bitcoin (BTC) The Answer?| FXMAG.COM Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Equities 2022-04-25 07:00 8 minutes to read Summary:  Global equity markets continued to adjust downward amid of a hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve and the rising likelihood of a much weaker Chinese economy in Q2 as a result of the punitive Covid-related lockdowns. Commodities were down as investors shifted their attention from supply disruption to potentially weaker demand. What’s happening in markets? Asian equities weighed by Friday’s US session and China lockdown.  US indices were down over 2% on Friday as risk off gripped markets that digested Fed’s hawkish tilt. S&P500 (US500.I) was down 2.8% while the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 (USNAS100.I) was down 2.5%, likely to test March lows. Asian equities will get a beating as well, with Japan’s Nikkei (NI225.I) down 1.6% in the morning and Singapore’s STI Index (ES3) in loss of 0.7%. Tech stocks, as well as energy and steel miners were on the backfoot. Read next: By Saxo Bank: COT: Spec buying pauses on China and growth concerns| FXMAG.COM Chinese equities made new lows.   China’s CSI300 Index (000300.I) and Shanghai Stock exchange Composite Index fell below their March 16 intraday lows and closed the morning session down over 4%.  Northbound investment registered a net outflow over RMB4 billion. China Merchants Bank (600036/03968) fell 6.4% in Shanghai and 9.5% in Hong Kong trading following news late last Friday that the bank’s former CEO being investigated by the Chinese authority.  The overall markets in the mainland and Hong Know were pressured by rising worries about the Chinese economy heading for a sharp deceleration in growth in Q2.  Mining and energy stocks were sold off. Hang Seng Index (HSI.I) and Hang Seng TECH Index were both down more than 2%. Crude oil (OILUKJUN22 & OILUSMAY22)  was also down over 2% in Asia amid fresh demand concerns from China with record deaths reported in Shanghai and hints of a spread in Beijing. WTI dropped below $100 and Brent was below $104. Asian energy stocks like Inpex (1605) and Eneos (5020) in Japan or Chinese oil stocks will be on watch. Australia has a public holiday today. Read next: Saxo Market Call: Podcast: China's FX moves supercharging developments| FXMAG.COM Iron ore (SCOA) is having a meltdown.  Iron ore futures were down close to 12% in Singapore to 2-month lows. Rich valuations are coming to haunt, after steel output dropped over 10% in Q1. But key miners Rio Tinto (XXRIO), BHP (BHP) and Vale (VALE) have confirmed their guidance for full-year production. Fortescue Metals (FMG) will be reporting output data on Thursday. Miners and steelmakers will be impacted by this big move in iron ore in the Asian session, so Japan's Nippon Steel (5401) or Kobe Steel (5406) was key to watch. No great news on the state of the UK consumer.  Retail sales are down again in March (minus 1.4% month-over-month). They are still 2.2% above their pre-pandemic level. But the trend is really not looking good. In addition, UK GfK consumer confidence plunged in April more than expected, at minus 38 versus expected minus 33 and previous minus 31. Confiance is only slightly above all-time lows. This is hard to see how the UK economy could avoid at least a modest downturn in the coming months. We believe a 50-basis point interest hike by the Bank of England is now off the table in May. It would have negative ripple effects on the overall economy. Rather good eurozone PMI indicators in April.  The flash PMI data pointed to a pickup in the eurozone growth in April (55.8 versus prior 54.9). This was mostly driven by the service sector. The manufacturing sector fell to a 22-month low mostly due to record inflationary pressures. In Germany, supply issues seriously intensified, pushing the manufacturing sector into a downturn. Finally, the French composite PMI skyrocketed to 57.5 versus 56.3 in March. Both the services and the manufacturing sector experienced strong growth, at 58.8 and 55.4, respectively. Read next: COVID Strikes China Again, Weak Chinese Renminbi (CNY), Accelerating US Dollar (USD)| FXMAG.COM What to consider? Macron’s victory prompted only short-term gains in EUR.  The result of the French elections have taken a key risk off the table. President Emmanuel Macron is projected to win a second term in office after facing his far-right rival Marine Le Pen in a runoff election on Sunday. EURUSD popped up to 1.085 at the open in Asia but the rally was fully reversed. ECB President Christine Lagarde gave an interview over the weekend, saying that inflation is a “different beast” between the US and Europe. With Eurozone inflation mainly energy-driven and the labor market not as hot as the US, it is hard to imagine gains in EUR sustaining against the USD. Heavy U.S. Q1 earnings calendar this week.  With Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Apple reporting this week, analysts may have a better about whether margins for mega cap companies in the technology and consumer space can maintain their margins in the new inflation environment. You can refer to Peter Garnry’s note for a more detailed preview. China’s container throughput declined.   According to data from the China Port Association, foreign trade related container throughput fell 4.9% over the period between April 11 and 20, from the same period last year.  It was another sign of weakening exports in April and shed a shadow over China’s GDP growth in Q2.  Secretary Yellen’s favorable comments on China did not cause much excitement.   U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen told Bloomberg that the Biden administration was re-examining its trade strategy with respect to China and considering the benefit of scaling back the Trump-era tariffs on Chinese goods to the reduction in U.S. inflation.  She also remarked that she did not think China was undermining the sanctions on Russia.  Read next: Russia-Ukraine War Is Still There. Check The "Equity Basket" Of Saxo Bank's Experts, Which Is Linked With The Circumstances In Europe| FXMAG.COM AUD making new lows in Asia.  Increasing risk off and a decline in iron ore prices is pushing AUDUSD lower to sub-0.7200 levels in Asia. NZDUSD also touched 0.6600 levels but AUDNZD slid below 1.0880. Australia’s Q1 CPI due on Wednesday. Indonesia’s palm oil ban to aid inflation fears.  Indonesia has announced plans to ban all exports of palm oil, which is a key ingredient of cooking oil, packaged food products, cosmetic, and other household items. Indonesia exports almost half of the global palm oil supply, suggesting further risks to Asia and global inflation outlook. Trading ideas to consider Brace for a busy earnings week.  Q1 earnings season shift gear with 558 major earnings releases that will impact sentiment in equity market. It is the big test of companies’ ability to pass on costs to their customers. Focus is on the biggest names such as Microsoft, Alphabet, UPS, Meta, Qualcomm, Boeing, PayPal, Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Intel, Caterpillar, Exxon Mobil, and Chevron. Markets are in a cautious mode right now, any misses in the key megacaps earnings may mean a further run down to test key levels.  Analysts will examine the results closely to find out if the mega cap companies in the technology and consumer space can maintain their profit margins in the new inflation environment. Interested readers please refer to Peter Garnry’s note for a more detailed preview. Shorting CNHJPY.  The renminbi started its abrupt move to depreciate since April 19 when traders, in particular those in Europe, returned from a holiday, troubled by the underwhelming stimulus actions from the Chinese authorities, persistent lockdowns and deteriorating growth outlook for the Chinese economy.  The move was probably also driven by the misalignment of valuation of renminbi and other Asian currencies, in particular the Japanese Yen, which accounts for 10.8% of the renminbi’s reference basket.  Over the past several session, renminbi’s depreciated more against the Yen which was benefitted from lower commodities prices which in turn was a result of weaker China growth.  We suspect this realignment have more to go.  Interested readers can refer to our note on the renminbi last Friday. Further reopening moves from Singapore and Hong Kong.  Singapore announced further relaxation in Covid restrictions, scrapping predeparture tests for vaccinated travellers and allowing 100% of the workforce back into the office. Hong Kong also started to relax restrictions, opening restaurants for dinner after over two months and allowing non-residents from next months for the first time since 2020. Reopening gains, especially in Singapore are likely to stretch beyond airlines and airport operator to casinos and restaurants, as well as event organizers and mall and office-based REITs. Key economic releases this week: Wed, Apr 27: Australia Q1 inflation Thu, Apr 28: Japan retail sales, Bank of Japan meeting Fri, Apr 29: Eurozone April inflation rate flash, US March PCE index Key earnings to watch: Mon, Apr 25: Activision-Blizzard (ATVI), Coca-Cola (KO) Tue, Apr 26: Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), UPS (UPS), PepsiCo (PEP), General Electric (GE), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), General Motors (GM) Wed, Apr 27: T-Mobile US (TMUS), Boeing (BA), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Ford Motor (F), Meta Platforms (FB), Qualcomm (QCOM) Thu, Apr 28: Caterpillar (CAT), Twitter (TWTR), Comcast (CMCSA), Merck (MRK), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Intel (INTC), PayPal (PYPL) Fri, Apr 29: Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL)   For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. 

Summary: In general most commodities apart from crude oil have seen a fall over the past month. Crude Oil Supply facing huge pressure.   Read next: Soybean Prices Reached Almost Record Prices, Platinum Investors Turning To New Suppliers, Copper Prices Struggling To Recover.    Coffee Futures Price Falling Over the past month the price of coffee futures have been falling consistently. The harvest at the world's largest producer in Brazil has been picking up as more fields are becoming ready to harvest. The harvest pushes supply into the market, driving the price down. However, coffee prices are still higher than those seen in 2021. Coffee Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold futures fare well today despite falling over the past month. Despite the increase in the price of gold since the market opened this morning, the price has been falling over the past month. The hawkish Fed increasing the U.S yields week-over-week has resulted in a negative outlook overall for the price of Gold. Gold is seen as a safe-haven asset and is used as a hedge against inflation, when the Fed pushes up the yields, the opportunity cost of holding Gold increases, driving investors to sell their Gold investment and instead turn to government bonds. This drives the price of gold down. In the past days gold has fared well against the Feds recent yield raise and has seen an increase of almost 0.4%. Gold Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Crude Oil prices continue to increase. The price of crude oil futures have been showing a steady upward trend. As global stockpiles of crude decrease, the concerns around demand have become more worrisome. Crude prices are surging as supply falls and demand is starting to increase back to pre-pandemic levels. Washington released a large number of their crude oil reserves in an attempt to control the price, however, the price continues to rise and will likely continue on this path. Crude oil Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart   Read next: Cotton Prices Reach Highest Prices In Almost 11 Years, Copper Prices Facing Negative Outlook and EU Announces 6 Month Plan To Phase Out Russian Crude Oil Imports    Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com

Summary: Earnings report from shells Q1 announcement. Concerns around supply driving the share price increase.   Read next: Lyft Stocks Face Major Negative Sentiment Despite Q1 Results Exceeding Expectations.    Oil Giant Shell's stock price is up almost 0.7% on Friday. Oil Giant Shell's stock price is up almost 0.7% on Friday. The outlook for crude oil supply is looking bleak as Washington pumps out their reserves in an attempt to control soaring prices. In addition the European Union's plans to cut off their oil imports from Russia within the next 6 months are causing the price of crude oil to increase, pushing up Shell's profits and therefore their share prices. Shell earnings cause favourable market sentiment. Shell released their earnings report this week and reported their highest quarterly earnings since 2008. Shell followed suit to the rest of the oil and gas industry. Shell announced plans to increase their DPS by 4% improving investor sentiment. The favourable earnings and high profits of Shell come in a time where the rest of the market is struggling, lawmakers are calling for oil companies to be taxed higher and use the tax increase to help struggling families. Shell Price Chart   Read next: WTI Crude Oil Prices Soaring Today Amidst The EU Announcing Their Plans To Ban Russian Oil Imports.    Sources: finance.yahoo.com, cnbc.com, wsj.com

Summary: Coffee futures are struggling to remain stable amidst the current market conditions. Crude oil prices could rise after poor performance this past week. Increased import tariffs on Russian Palladium to the U.K should drive the price up. Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold Prices Remain Stable Despite Hawkish Fed, EU Regains Control Of Their NGAS Supplies, Cotton Futures Prices.  Weather relief in major producing regions drives the price of coffee futures down. Coffee futures have been falling over the past week or so. The price fall comes as a result of the strengthening US Dollar and weakening Brazilian real is pushing prices down, the relief of dry weather conditions is also a bearish signal for coffee futures prices. The demand for coffee is also under pressure with the lockdowns in China continuing, and the war between Russia and the Ukraine causing demand in these two regions to fall. The market has been in a slump this week which could be another reason for the price to fall. There are still concerns around supply of coffee worldwide, a possible cause of the almost 3% increase the future has seen today. Coffee Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Crude Oil WTI increases today after poor performance within the past week The price of Crude Oil Futures have been following the market trend this past week, dropping to below $100. The rise today comes as concerns around supply in the wake of the European Union Oil embargo on Russia increase. Oil producers warned of their concerns around not being able to fill the oil gap when demand returns back to normal levels. WTI Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Palladium prices show steady downward price trend Palladium prices are falling with the current market sentiment, the prices rebounded slightly after the U.K announced the increase in the tariff on Palladium imports from Russia. This move will cause further Palladium supply issues, however, the price is still falling. Palladium Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: Prices Of Brent Crude Oil And Silver Fall As The US Dollar Strengthening, Corn Prices Face Downward Price Pressure.  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, barchart.com

Summary: The post-covid world and the war in the Ukraine caused Crude Oil to rally. Gold futures are on the rise amidst concerns around economic slowdown of the US economy. Cotton prices fall marginally despite concerns around increasing demand and tightening supply. Read next: The UN Is Stepping In To Help Wheat Exports, Platinum Prices Experiencing Volatility and The West Turns To Asia For RBOB Gasoline Supply  XAUUSD Gold prices rally Gold prices pushed up past $1.830 on Friday, the gain comes in the wake of the softening U.S economic data amid the hawkish Federal Reserve and its continuing aggressive monetary policy. The soft economic data has raised concerns around economic growth. The hawkish Fed will continue to hike interest rates despite fears of economic slowdown which is causing the US Dollar to weaken and pushing treasury yields lower. Investors are turning to gold as a hedge against the growth concerns, ultimately driving the gold price up. Gold Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart WTI Crude Futures Crude Oil Futures pushed above $112 on Friday amidst concerns around demands returning to a normal level as China eases their COVID-19 lockdowns and the embargo in Russian oil looming simultaneously occurring as fears of economic slowdown heighten. The post-covid world is seeing average driving mileage increasing in the U.S causing an increase in demand, as well as the EU pushing the ban on Russian oil to be certain by the end of the month. Crude Oil Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton futures Cotton futures prices have faced downward momentum over the past week. However, the prices are still high, the raised prices come in the wake of rising demand and tightening supplies. Cotton Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: More Expensive Coffee!? Weather Conditions In South America Can Limit Crops. (WTI) Crude Oil Price Recovering, Palladium Prices Rise Amidst Concerns Around Supply  Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com

Summary: The potential for a dovish Fed later on in the year leaves investors seeking safety in gold. The EU is still trying to reach an agreement for the banning of Russian Crude. Tight Soybean supplies. Read next: Easing Concerns Around Supply Drives The Price Of Both Wheat And Platinum Down, RBOB Gasoline Continues To Rise   XAUUSD futures rise Gold rose further on Friday as it hit its second consecutive weekly gain, the strength in Gold comes in the wake of a weakening US Dollar. The chances of the Federal Reserve Bank easing monetary policy later on in the year has left investors seeking gold as a hedge against future inflation, driving the price of gold up. XAUUSD Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Crude Oil prices continue to rise amidst supply concerns The price of Crude Oil traded above $114 per barrel on Friday. The past week for Crude has seen prices consistently rising amidst concerns over global supply. On Wednesday the EIA released data indicating that the US Crude inventories were lower than expected due to rising exports. In addition the EU is trying to negotiate with Hungary on the implementation of an oil embargo on Russia, with EU Council Charles Michel remaining confident that an agreement can be reached by May 30th. Crude Oil Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Soybean Futures rising Soybeans are facing a tight supply run at the moment, export demand is rising causing the price of soybeans to trade high. As the oil embargo in Indonesia is lited, a certain amount of soybean volume will be added to the domestic market. Soybean Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: Potential Frost Causing Concerns Around Coffee Supplies, Crude Oil Demand Is Expected To Rise, Palladium Price Falls Amidst Easing Concerns Around Supply And Demand  Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com

Summary: On Friday the price of gold neared its one month high. Crude oil prices have jumped up and down over the past week. Supply may increase to meet demand. Read next: Wheat Prices Enter June On A Four Week Low Platinum Prices Rising Again, RBOB Gasoline Prices Reach New High  Gold prices rise again On Friday the price of gold neared its one month high. The price of gold has been elevated by the weakness of the US Dollar, putting gold on track for its third weekly gain. The dollar weakened overnight in the wake of data that showed US payroll rose less than expected in May. Therefore, U.S Dollar backed gold became more attractive to overseas buyers. The current geopolitical tensions and the chances of the global economy falling into a recession also increased demand for the safe-haven asset. XAUUSD Price Chart WTI Crude Oil prices. Crude oil prices have jumped up and down over the past week. The price has dropped slightly during trading on Friday in the wake of news that Saudi Arabia will increase its oil output. Saudi Arabia indicated to its allies in the West that it would increase its oil output to try to balance the fall the region is experiencing from its Russian oil embargo. WTI Crude Oil Price Chart Soybeans The price of soybeans have been volatile over the past two days. Late April saw Soybean prices hit record high prices amidst supply and demand concerns. A top palm oil producer based in Indonesia indicated that it would reinstate a requirement to allocate a certain amount to the domestic market as it lifts the most recent export embargo. However supply may increase to meet demand, however it will be tight. Soybeans Price Chart Read next: EU Reaches An Agreement On The Banning Of Russian Crude Oil, Coffee Prices Rise, Palladium Prices Decline Along With Supply Concerns  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, fxmag.com, tradingeconomics.com

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets also had lower contracts. Leading the gains for energy were Heating Oil (6,319 contracts), Gasoline (1,265 contracts) and Natural Gas (1,202 contracts). Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-1,785 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (-1,583 contracts) with Bloomberg Commodity Index (-1,048 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index is above its midpoint for the past 3 years while all the other markets are below the 50 percent level. Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that heating oil, natural gas and WTI crude have had rising scores over the past six weeks. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-31-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,787,928 9 332,976 10 -373,761 91 40,785 72 Gold 513,722 18 172,589 5 -200,056 95 27,467 32 Silver 147,301 14 13,997 15 -23,861 99 9,864 6 Copper 189,923 19 -18,025 29 15,425 70 2,600 40 Palladium 6,538 1 -3,133 4 3,221 95 -88 39 Platinum 67,964 35 2,363 7 -6,501 96 4,138 20 Natural Gas 1,115,815 7 -110,368 45 59,679 50 50,689 100 Brent 181,699 25 -40,872 43 38,941 58 1,931 35 Heating Oil 248,966 15 121 43 -17,967 52 17,846 60 Soybeans 753,373 34 186,078 71 -158,757 34 -27,321 25 Corn 1,564,217 32 404,200 82 -353,348 22 -50,852 14 Coffee 214,170 8 43,015 76 -45,757 28 2,742 17 Sugar 848,463 11 201,680 78 -240,752 23 39,072 56 Wheat 331,136 11 22,309 48 -18,647 33 -3,662 91   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 332,976 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 334,761 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.6 34.8 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.0 55.7 2.7 – Net Position: 332,976 -373,761 40,785 – Gross Longs: 421,683 622,867 89,200 – Gross Shorts: 88,707 996,628 48,415 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 9.9 91.0 72.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.9 -8.7 -3.9   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,289 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.7 54.0 4.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.2 32.6 3.2 – Net Position: -40,872 38,941 1,931 – Gross Longs: 26,712 98,147 7,700 – Gross Shorts: 67,584 59,206 5,769 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.6 58.0 35.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.3 2.1 -6.9   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -110,368 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -111,570 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.5 37.4 6.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.4 32.0 2.3 – Net Position: -110,368 59,679 50,689 – Gross Longs: 228,487 417,276 75,815 – Gross Shorts: 338,855 357,597 25,126 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 3.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.5 49.6 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.9 -7.1 6.6   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 33,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,425 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.7 53.9 7.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.8 68.9 3.7 – Net Position: 33,690 -46,032 12,342 – Gross Longs: 76,089 165,784 23,735 – Gross Shorts: 42,399 211,816 11,393 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.4 91.0 94.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.0 4.9 26.7   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,198 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.4 49.7 16.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.4 56.9 9.5 – Net Position: 121 -17,967 17,846 – Gross Longs: 43,360 123,782 41,618 – Gross Shorts: 43,239 141,749 23,772 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.6 52.1 60.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.5 -7.4 -7.8   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -10,561 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,513 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 63.6 28.5 1.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 93.7 0.0 0.4 – Net Position: -10,561 10,027 534 – Gross Longs: 22,382 10,027 679 – Gross Shorts: 32,943 0 145 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 inf to 1 4.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.1 31.9 38.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.8 7.7 -7.6   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Welcome to Wednesday’s update, traders. Today our focus is on oil as price has started to move higher after testing and holding for now at key support. Price continues to trade in a short to medium-term downtrend after sellers turned momentum back in June. Since that point, it’s been a series of LHs and LLs. Today’s price has shown defensive action from buyers after this morning’s lower gap failed to beat 94.90 area support and demand. Could yesterday’s bar be seen as exhaustion? If buyers can hold this level of support, we will be looking for price to continue to push higher. Obviously, if we see a break, then it’s back to looking for new LLs maintaining the downtrend. The MAs remain bearish, but the OBV has stopped putting in clear LLs despite yesterday’s strong move lower. Could support be hiding plenty of fresh demand from oil buyers? We will have to wait and see if buyers can hold the level again today. Data to keep an eye out for today. 10:30 pm US CPI and core CPI. 12:30 am US crude oil inventory numbers. Oil D1 Chart The post CFD News; Oil sees demand after testing key support. appeared first on Eightcap.

The equity rally in the US didn’t pick up momentum after the Federal Reserve (Fed) released its latest meeting minutes, which sounded more hawkish-than-expected, or more hawkish-than-what-was-needed-to-give-another-boost to the US stock markets. The biggest take was that the Fed will continue tightening its policy until it sees that inflation is ‘firmly on path back to 2%’. The S&P500 fell 0.72% as Nasdaq gave back 1.20%, although the jump in the US 2-year yield was relatively soft, and the Fed funds futures scaled back the expectation of a 75 bp hike in the next meeting. Crude price completed an ABCD pattern, and it is more likely than not we see the price rebound to the $100 level in the medium run. In China, Tencent announced its first ever revenue drop as government crackdown continued taking a toll on its sales, and the pound couldn’t gain even after the above 10% inflation data boosted the Bank of England (BoE) hawks and the call fall steeper rate hikes to tame inflation in the UK. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:28 As expected, Fed minutes were more hawkish-than-expected 3:39 Crude oil has more chance to rebound than to fall 6:02 Tencent posts first-ever revenue drop 7:14 Apple extends gains, but technicals warn of correction 8:38 Pound unable to extend gains despite rising Fed hawks’ voices Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Fed #FOMC #minutes #USD #GBP #inflation #Tencent #Alibaba #earnings #crude #oil #natural #gas #coal #futures #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Recently, our team has raised the issue of crude price. FXMAG wonder if we can, by any chance, go back to 2020 levels when the black gold was trading in $30-40 range. What would have to happen to take crude price back to 2020 levels of $30-40? Ole Hansen (Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank): A deep recession triggered by central banks hiking rates until economies break without getting inflation under control. However, a scenario of much lower oil prices remain remote given the support from OPEC+ production cuts and the US beginning to buy back crude oil for its strategic reserves. Read next: Russian Drones Attacked Kyiv Again | Most respondents do not want Musk| FXMAG.COM

Some time ago we had a great opportunity to ask FXStreet to comment on commodities, American consumers and NFP. Here’s what we’ve heard from Yohay Elam. Brent crude oil nears $80 at the actual start of heating season, is China's covid situation affecting it to that extent or there's another 'hidden' factor and what can we expect till the end of the year? Yohay Elam (FXStreet): Fears of a US recession have been weighing on energy prices, but I see several reasons for a significant bounce. First, China's reopening is far from being fully priced in markets. Beijing is relaxing its draconian measures and at a dizzying pace, and higher demand expectations are set to boost demand. Second, Current low prices may boost the US government's purchase of crude to replenish its strategic reserves, which it has been depleting to mitigate the impact of Russia's war in Ukraine. Third, supply remains tight as a result of under-investment in recent years. Fourth, and as mentioned in the question, winter has arrived, and with it higher demand for energy. All in all, I see prices rising from the current abyss. Could NFP save the dollar from a quite long downtrend? Dollar index has been losing since ca. 7 weeks, is correction coming to USD? The robust Nonfarm Payrolls report – and especially the upbeat wages data – helped stabilize the Dollar but do not serve as a game-changer. The #1 market mover in recent months has been the CPI report, and the next one is due shortly. If Core CPI rises by 0.6% or more, it would trigger a massive turnaround in favor of the Dollar. A lower figure would resume the Greenback's downtrend. Read next: Migration Of Sports From Traditional Television To Streaming Is Chugging Ahead- The NFL Sunday Ticket On YouTube| FXMAG.COM According to Adobe, Black Friday sales soared $9.12bn despite headwinds like high inflation, rising interest rates, recession fears and uncertain geopolitical outlook - what made consumers buy goods so willingly? Americans still have excessive savings from the pandemic era, and were clearly delighted to see price cuts – partially related to high inventories and the unsnarling of supply chains. Recession fears, uncertainty and political polarization have negatively impacted sentiment, but not actual shopping. There is a gap between what Americans say about the state of the broad economy and what they feel and see in their community. Moving forward, I think consumption will ease, but not collapse, staving off a recession in the US.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), as of 2021, there were a total of 90,498 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China. However, it is important to note that this figure may not reflect the full extent of the outbreak in China, which could have been far greater. As a result, Chinese authorities have imposed a number of restrictions that may have affected population mobility. Among the measures taken by the Chinese government were the imposition of quarantine for people traveling from places where there was a high incidence of infection or which were considered outbreaks, the closure of borders to people traveling from abroad, the introduction of mandatory wearing of protective masks in public places, the closure of schools and universities and other educational institutions, the restriction of movement between cities and towns, the suspension of all mass public events and parties, or the suspension of cinemas, theaters and other cultural institutions. These and other measures have been put in place to limit the spread of the virus. Due to the restrictions, demand for oil in China has fallen by about one million barrels this year, according to Rob Thummel, portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital. Read next: India’s Investing In Program For The Green Hydrogen Industry | Covid Situation In China Is Getting Serious| FXMAG.COM "The factor that will drive China's oil demand higher will obviously be the reopening of the economy, but more importantly, the building of inventories," - Thummel said. "Oil stocks around the world are low, and I think the world has figured out that energy security is quite important," - Thummel added. "So that's going to be a big driver in both China - and India - going forward, and it's going to drive demand growth going forward. And once again, it's likely to drive prices up," added the portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital. China reduces restrictions China announced Monday that it will end quarantine requirements for incoming travelers starting Jan. 8, raising the demand outlook for the world's largest oil importer. On the supply side, more than 30% of Gulf Coast refining capacity in Texas has been shut down in recent days due to winter storms, according to Bloomberg. The prospect of a production cut by Russia could also support oil prices, as the country may reduce output by 5% to 7% in early 2023 in response to price caps imposed by Western countries, RIA news agency reported, citing Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. Source: Conotoxia MT5, XTIUSD, Daily Tuesday morning, WTI crude oil futures remain in the region of $80 per barrel. Meanwhile, investors may remain cautious about the growing risk of a global recession next year, as major central banks may further tighten monetary policy. This, in turn, could depress oil demand. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75,21% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Read the article on Conotoxia.com

Oil and gas firms have been the target of criticism from investors, the non-governmental sector, and governments for their purported leadership in climate change for several years. The barrage has been constant, ranging from shareholder votes calling for more significant promises to decrease greenhouse gas emissions to lawsuits ordering operators in the oil and gas sector to effectively limit their core business. Because of this, oil and gas company shares as well as the corporations that issued them have lost favor in the stock market and the business sector. A startlingly large number of nations have realized that while lowering emissions may be a worthy objective, providing electricity without outages is still the top priority this year. This realization has considerably boosted the consumption of fossil fuels in Europe, which has raised the price of oil and gas. The share prices of oil and gas businesses increased along with the price of fuel. They have developed so impressively that they now top the market this year. The cause: enormous profits in the face of the European energy crisis, which is naturally drawing a lot of negative attention from governments concerned about the environment. Up to 15 S&P 500 leaders will come from the energy sector, according to a Financial Times estimate published last week, with Occidental Petroleum topping the list after its shares increased by 120 percent this year. Additionally, the energy sector outperformed in a year in which the stock market as a whole underperformed due to aggressive monetary policy tightening in both the US and Europe as well as a strong increase in bond yields that kept investors away from stocks. Read next: Euro against dollar is ahead of an action-packed week with inflation and retail sales prints to be published| FXMAG.COM The S&P 500 would experience a fall of 21%, according to a recent study from Bloomberg, which would be the greatest since 2008, the year of the global financial crisis. Aside from cryptography firms that have been harmed by the collapse of the digital currency and the FTX cryptocurrency exchange, it appears that huge technology companies have suffered the most this time around. Meta alone has lost 60% this year. Even Tesla has not been immune to the upheaval in the stock market; in the past few weeks alone, the business has seen a loss of up to 70% of its value as a result of mounting worries about the demand for electric vehicles. Many referred to the price decline as a long overdue correction and a reality check, but Elon Musk reassured Tesla staff that the firm will eventually regain its highest level of value. The FT reports that shares of energy companies have increased by around 60% this year alone in the United States alone, making them look more and more appealing to investors who had previously been wary of oil and gas. It was only a matter of time until investors realized their top objective in investing was making money, given this situation and the rising need for oil and gas, a reality that even the International Energy Agency did not dispute. Oil and gas corporations are more than willing to keep giving money back to investors in both Europe and the US, but they are especially active in the US shale sector due to record earnings and windfall income taxes that threaten future production costs. Relevance up to 08:00 2023-01-30 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331275

Oil Oil prices are tumbling as risk aversion sends the dollar higher and dampens expectations that the crude demand outlook will improve anytime soon. ​ China’s reopening has too many question marks as hospitals are overwhelmed and medical supplies run low. Crude prices could struggle here as a strong dollar could be here to stay as investors can’t pass up the yield they are getting in fixed income. ​ Manufacturing activity globally mostly appears to be stuck in contraction territory and that might not improve until the end of the quarter. Gold Gold is riding a nice wave of falling Treasury yields, safe-haven flows as recession risks rise, and an improving outlook for jewelry demand across China and India. ​ Gold should have a strong start to the New Year as much of Wall Street goes defensive. ​ The precious metal should see strong inflows as stock market sellers appear to be clearly in control. Read next: 2023 Predictions: Peter Garnry - Our target for S&P 500 is still around the 3,200 level sometime during the year leading to an overall drawdown of around 33% from the peak in early 2022 | FXMAG.COM Inflation might prove to be harder to bring down and that should keep the risks elevated that the recession that hits the US economy could be harsher than what most are anticipating. ​ The Fed will remain loud and clear that a lot of work remains to bring down inflation. Gold has massive resistance at the $1900 level, but it could be tested by the end of the quarter. ​ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil struggles, gold’s great start - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Oil Oil is extending declines on concerns that China’s struggles with COVID are not going away anytime soon and as the global economic worries persist as central banks take rates into very restrictive territory. ​ Crude is not getting extra demand this winter as warm weather spans across the US and Europe. ​ ​ Despite all this oil price weakness, the technicals, specifically driven by the Biden administration’s intention to buy up crude at around the $70 level to refill the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) should provide some key support. The demand outlook might be near rock bottom, which could suggest a strong reversal for oil could be right around the corner. ​ ​ Gold Gold is having a great start to the New Year. ​ Wall Street continues to pile into gold as global bond yields continue to slide and recessionary risks remain elevated. Many traders are growing confident that the end of the Fed’s tightening cycle is nearing and that rate cuts could happen at the end of the year. ​ Read next: Oil slides again, gold grooves on - MarketPulseMarketPulse Gold is eyeing the $1900 level, but for that to happen we’ll need to see the bond market rally remain in place a while longer. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil slides again, gold grooves on - MarketPulseMarketPulse

The first two trading sessions of the year have clearly shown that traders are sticking to the bearish patterns formed in the previous six months. Interestingly, oil is not even helped by apparent producer lethargy, which translates into stagnant production and shrinking inventories. Oil, which had been gaining for the last three weeks of the year, faced intense selling pressure below $80 for a barrel of WTI Crude, near which the 50-day moving average also passed. The sharp, almost 10% decline from that line in two days, as in previous similar episodes last year, sets the stage for a further drop. A bearish pattern in oil since June persists with a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. This trend will be further confirmed, with WTI falling below $70 as part of the downward momentum that has begun. Another batch of weekly inventory data is released today, from which a slight increase in commercial inventories is expected. If we ignore the high-frequency noise of the data, however, what catches the eye is stagnant production, which has been hovering around the 12m BPD level since last May. This is markedly lower than the peak of 13m in March 2020, with employment and GDP levels above pre-pandemic levels. Read next: We are preparing to see the S&P500 decline in the first weeks of the new year down to 3600 | FXMAG.COM Producers thus refrain from competing with the state, which continues to sell off reserves at a lower rate. In the short term, a fall in demand in China, where economic pain from the coronavirus pandemic is intensifying, is in favour of further price reductions. In addition, traders are under pressure from increasing recession risks in a third of the world economy, as predicted by the IMF. Signals that developed countries remain committed to fighting inflation and are willing to sacrifice growth are not helping oil now. Neither are all the new signs that financial institutions continue to tighten the terms of their hydrocarbon loans. The more than 40% collapse in US gas prices over the past three weeks does not add to the optimism of oil buyers either. The price is now back where it was in January 2022, having put back a market premium due to fears of a supply disruption from Russia to Europe. Potentially, oil could retreat to the $62-65 area, where it has repeatedly fumbled for support since April 2021. If economic indicators deteriorate further, the price may stop its decline at as low as $50.

Speed bumps ahead Oil prices have been choppy this week after climbing back towards their late December/early January peaks. It would appear the rally is running short of momentum amid a week of less promising data from the US and a downturn in market sentiment, more broadly. That’s to be expected. After all, it’s not like we were going to go from the doom and gloom of 2022 into relentless optimism just like that. It’s going to be a bumpy ride this year and this week has simply been the first speed bump of many. With so many other factors also influencing the oil price, I expect volatility is going nowhere. Gold not far from record highs Another rally on Thursday saw gold surpass last week’s peak but already it’s running into resistance and trading slightly lower on the day. While not the end of the world, it’s clear that momentum is fading which, following a strong rally since November, could suggest a correction is possible. The environment remains favourable for gold but a correction could be healthy considering it’s now rallied almost 20% from its early November lows and sits a little over 6% from all-time highs. Read next: $1 Million In Sanctions Against Former President Donald Trump, Netflix Co-Founder Reed Hastings Has Stepped Down As CEO| FXMAG.COM For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil remains choppy, gold near record high - MarketPulseMarketPulse

US and European equity futures markets trade higher with Asian markets also climbing on cautious optimism the Federal Reserve may decide to pause rate hikes after US core inflation advanced the least in two years. The dollar and Treasury yield both trade softer ahead of US retail sales with the euro ticking higher as traders' price in a two-third chance of a rate hike from the European Central Bank later today. Crude trades near a ten-month high on concerns about a supply shortfall, copper higher on yuan strength while gold prices have steadied following a two-day decline.   Equities: S&P 500 futures are holding up well against recent weakness trading around the 4,530 level despite yesterday’s higher-than-expected US inflation opening the door for the Fed to hike interest rates one more time in December. Arm IPO was priced at the top end of the range at $51 per share with trading set to being today. Adobe earnings after the US market close could be a key event for the AI-related cluster of stocks. FX: The US dollar wobbled on the CPI release but could not close the day higher with Treasury yields slipping. EUR in the spotlight today as ECB decision is due, and EURUSD has found support at 1.07 for now with a rate hike priced in with over 65% probability. USDJPY trades softer after government minister talked about the need for strong economic measures. Yuan strengthened further with authorities increasing bill sales in Hong Kong to soak up yuan liquidity making it more expensive to short the currency. Commodities: Brent holds above $92 and WTI near $90 after the IEA joined OPEC’s warnings of a supply shortfall in the coming months, thereby supporting a rally that started back in June when Saudi Arabia curbed supply to boost prices. Softening the rally was a weekly US stock report showing rising stocks and production near the 2020 record. Near-term the market looks overbought and in need of a pullback. Gold looking for support ahead of $1900 with a hawkish FOMC pause back on the agenda while copper trades firmer with a stronger yuan offsetting a rise in LME stocks to a two-year high Fixed income: The US yield curve bull-steepened yesterday despite higher-than-expected CPI numbers, indicating that the Federal Reserve might be approaching the end of the hiking cycle. Yet, long-term yields remained flat as the 30-year auction showed a drop in indirect demand and tailed by 1bps despite pricing at the highest yield since 2011. Overall, we remain cautious, favouring the front part of the yield curve over a long duration. Bonds will gain as the economy starts to show signs of deceleration. Still, larger coupon auction sizes and a hawkish BOJ will support long-term yields unless a tail event materializes. We still see 10-year yields rising further to test strong resistance at 4.5%. Today, the focus will be on the ECB, which markets expect to hike. Due to a recession in Germany and in Netherlands, we believe that the ECB will deliver a hawkish pause today, which might result in a short-lived bond rally. Macro: US CPI surprised to the upside, but it did not alter the markets thinking around the Fed. Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM, or +0.278% unrounded, above the prior/expected +0.2%, with core YoY printing 4.3%, down from July's 4.7%, and in line with expectations. Headline print was in line with expectations at 0.6% MoM, up from +0.2% on account of energy price increases, with YoY lifting to 3.7% from 3.2%, above the expected 3.6%. The PBoC announced plans to issue RMB15 billion Central Bank Bills in Hong Kong on September 19, which is going to tighten CNH (offshore renminbi) liquidity further In the news: Asset managers BlackRock and Amundi are warning that US recession risks are rising – full story in the FT. Germany is facing big structural problems in its manufacturing sector with gloom taking over among workers – full story in the FT. The EU is weighing tariffs against China over flooding the market with cheap electric vehicles – full story on Reuters. Technical analysis: S&P 500. Key at resistance at 4,540. Key Support at 4,340. Nasdaq 100 15,561 is key resistance. EURUSD downtrend, support at 1.0685, Expect short-term bounce to 1.08. AUDJPY testing resistance at 95.00. Crude oil uptrend stretched, expect a correction lower Macro events: ECB Main Refinancing Rate exp. unchanged at 4.25% (1215 GMT), US Retail Sales (Aug) exp. 0.1% vs 0.7% prior (1230 GMT), US Initial Jobless Claims exp. 225k vs 216k prior (1230 GMT), US PPI (Aug) exp. 0.4% vs 0.3% prior (1230 GMT), Commodities events:  EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change (1430 GMT) Earnings events: Adobe reports FY23 Q3 earnings (ending 31 August) after the US market close with analyst expecting revenue growth of 10% y/y and EPS of $3.98 up 63% y/y. Read our earnings preview here.  

Delay is no good sign By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank   OPEC decided to delay this weekend's meeting to next week because talks between Saudi and African members apparently ran into trouble. Saudi likely sensed in this week's poor price action - 'buy the fact that Saudi will double its production cuts' action - that 1mbpd extra cut wouldn't send the oil prices higher, sustainably. Hence, Saudis need other member to put their hand in the mud, and seemingly the negotiations aren't easy.   A bit of history...  Saudi has a history of walking away from its role of 'swing producer' - a crucial role in balancing global oil markets by adjusting its production levels to stabilize prices. Back in the 1980s, Saudi Arabia has shifted its strategy and opted for a market share approach. Instead of cutting production to support oil prices, Saudi Arabia had decided to increase its output significantly, contributing to a glut in the global oil market.   Therefore, if Saudi doesn't get the support that it needs from the other producer countries after all the unilateral efforts that they put in, they will naturally be tempted to abandon the idea of doubling its supply cut, and eventually reverse it. Such a decision would lead to a sharp decline in oil prices and have a significant impact on the economies of other oil-producing nations.   The barrel of American crude sank to $73.50pb before rebounding to the $76 this morning. Brent fell below $80pb before rebounding above this level. Both in Brent and crude, the 200-DMA remains a solid resistance, as the worries of global slowdown outweigh the worries of supply restrictions, even more so as Saudis start giving signs of stress regarding their solo role in cutting production.