cpi inflation

There is no sign of inflation slowing down, there are still major issues with the supply chains, money supply is still rising and the war in the Ukraine affecting investor sentiment are all aspects driving the rise in inflation worldwide. UK Inflation: The increase has deepened the cost of living crisis in the UK The UKs inflation hit an all time 30 year high in March and the April reading is expected to further increase. As a result over the last month, investments in REITs have increased, as investors are looking to REITs as a potential hedge against inflation, REITs are also a useful tool to diversify an investment portfolio. The graph shows one of the top REITs (Residential Secure Income Plc ) in the UK and its performance over the past week amidst the announcements of housing inflation increasing. Related article: ECB To Shock Markets In The Following Week!? US Dollar Rate Under Pressure As Well! Price Chart of Residential Secure Income Plc

Every asset class has been on a rollercoaster ride as investors are watching central bankers all around globe tighten monetary policy to fight inflation.  Financial conditions are starting to tighten and the risks of slower growth are accelerating.   The focus for the upcoming week will naturally be a wrath of Fed speak and the latest US CPI data which is expected to show inflation decelerated sharply last month. A sharper decline with prices could vindicate Fed Chair Powell’s decision to remove a 75 basis-point rate increase at the next couple policy meetings. A close eye will also stay on energy markets which has shown traders remain convinced that the market will remain tight given OPEC+ will stick to their gradual output increase strategy and as US production struggles to ramp up despite rising rig counts.  Energy traders will continue to watch for developments with the EU nearing a Russian energy ban.   US Market volatility following the FOMC decision won’t ease up anytime soon as traders will look to the next inflation report to see if policymakers made a mistake in removing even more aggressive rate hikes off the table over the next couple of meetings.  The April CPI report is expected to show further signs that peak inflation is in place.  The month-over-month reading is expected to decline from 1.2% to 0.2%, while the year-over-year data is forecasted to decrease from 8.5% to 8.1%. The producer prices report comes out the next day and is also expected to show pricing pressure are moderating.  On Friday, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for the month of May should show continued weakness. The upcoming week is filled with Fed speak that could show a divide from where Fed Chair Powell stands with tightening at the June and July meetings.  On Tuesday, Fed’s Williams, Barkin, Waller, Kashkari, Mester, and Bostic speak.  Wednesday will have another appearance by Bostic. Thursday contains a speech from the Fed’s Daly.  On Friday, Fed’s Kashkari and Mester speak.   EU The Russia/Ukraine war and the sanctions against Russia have dampened economic activity in the eurozone. Germany, the largest economy in the bloc has been posting weak numbers as the war goes on. With the EU announcing it will end Russian energy imports by the end of the year, there are concerns that the German economy could tip into a recession. On Tuesday Germany releases ZEW Survey Expectations, which surveys financial professionals. Economic Sentiment is expected to decline to -42.5 in May, down from -41.0 in April. On Friday, the Eurozone releases Industrial Production for March. The Ukraine conflict has exacerbated supply line disruptions, which is weighing on industrial production. The sharp drop in German Industrial Production (-3.9%), suggests that the Eurozone release will also show a contraction. The March estimate is -1.8%, following a gain of 0.7% in February. 

US small business optimism held steady in April after three consecutive falls. Nonetheless, businesses retain the ability to pass higher costs onto their customers and this will keep inflation sticky. Ongoing supply chain issues and rising fuel costs mean 2% inflation is a distant prospect Business sentiment holds steady, but firms still want to hire The recent US data has been mixed and that has helped to fuel fears that the economy could experience a marked slowdown, especially with the Federal Reserve firmly focused on inflation and hiking interest rates. Dollar strength is acting as a further headwind to growth by making US exports less price competitive in what is already a challenging external demand environment for companies. In this regard this morning’s National Federation of Independent Business survey for April was marginally better than expected at the headline level with optimism holding steady versus expectations of a fourth consecutive monthly drop. Nonetheless it is still the weakest level since April 2020 in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic striking. The details show a slight improvement in the proportion of small businesses expecting higher sales, but there was a little more pessimism on the outlook for the economy and whether it was a good time to expand. Set against this softer environment, firms are still struggling with worker shortages and are desperate to hire. The NFIB released the labour components last Thursday, which a net 46% having raised worker compensation during the past 3 months and 27% expecting to do so further. Inflation pressures show no sign of moderating Looking to tomorrow's inflation data the NFIB report shows a net 70% of companies raised their selling prices in the past 3 month - down from last month's 72% balance, but this is still the second highest reading in the survey's 47-year history. Moreover, a net 46% of firms plan to raise their prices further over the next three months (down from 50%, but this is still the 6th highest reading in the survey's history). This reinforces the message the despite concerns about where the economy is heading, businesses continue to have pricing power and highlights the breadth of inflation pressures in the economy. The ability to raise prices is seen across all sectors and all sizes of businesses NFIB price indicators show no sign of a turn in inflation Source: Macrobond, ING Inflation may be peaking, but 2% is a long way away Tomorrow's CPI report will probably show that inflation has passed the peak, due largely to lower used car prices, but in the absence of major improvements in supply chains and geopolitical tensions, the descent to the 2% target will be very slow and may not be achieved until the very end of 2023. However, with national gasoline prices hitting a new all-time high yesterday that will come as little comfort to most households. TagsUS Inflation Federal Reserve Business optimism   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

All quiet in Asia ahead of US inflation In this article Macro outlook What to look out for: China and US inflation Source: shutterstock Macro outlook Global: The big story today is going to be the April US CPI release, and markets may be quite muted ahead of this. Our Chief US Economist has written about this in the context of the latest NFIB business survey, so please check out this link for more details. But to summarise, whatever happens tonight, he isn’t looking for US inflation to fall quickly. That may bring back concern about potentially more aggressive FOMC behaviour. In this vein, Loretta Mester yesterday suggested that if inflation wasn’t falling by the second half of the year, the FOMC may need to increase the pace of its tightening. US stocks managed to eke out some small gains yesterday after the big falls earlier this week. But trading was choppy, and it could have gone either way. We don’t read too much directional steer into this for Asia’s open today. G-10 FX continued to show USD support, but movements were not large. EURUSD drifted down to about 1.0530 from about 1.0560 yesterday. The AUD still looks pressured lower and is about 0.6937 as of writing. Other Asian FX was fairly muted, though note there is a BNM meeting today, so a “no-change” which is on the cards, could see the MYR softening further. Bond markets were also fairly muted. 2-year US Treasury yields edged up slightly, but the 10Y US Treasury bond yield drifted back under 3.0%. 10Y JGBs have been drifting higher – challenging the 0.25% level, and breaching it intraday, so we may be due an official response of sorts imminently.    China: April CPI and PPI inflation rates are expected to slow from March due to lower metal and coal prices and weak demand for consumer goods. We will probably see higher prices for pork and fertilizer. This set of data reflects slower economic growth resulting from the Covid-19 social distancing measures. Korea: The Jobless rate remained unchanged in April at 2.7% (vs the market consensus of 2.8%) for the third straight month, while the labour participation rate improved to 63.8% (vs 63.5% in March), indicating that the labour market continued on a recovery track. Reopening is supporting employment growth in service sectors such as retail sales, recreation, and transportation. Despite a gloomier outlook for manufacturing, employment in that sector posted a solid gain for the eighth straight month. However, one potential caveat to this month’s report was that the majority of the employment growth came from the older age group (60+) while the 30’s (supposedly the most productive group) lost the most jobs. President Yoon Seok Yeol’s party has proposed a supplementary budget plan to the government this morning. Although the size was in line with the market expectation of about KRW33tr, it is noted that the extra budget would not require additional bond issuance. More details will be released tomorrow. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM What to look out for: China and US inflation Korea unemployment (11 May) China CPI and PPI inflation (11 May) US CPI inflation (11 May) Philippines 1Q GDP (12 May) US PPI inflation and initial jobless claims (12 May) Malaysia GDP (13 May) Hong Kong GDP (13 May) US Michigan sentiment (13 May) TagsEmerging Markets Asia Pacific Asia Markets Asia Economics   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

It’s D-day of the week: we will see whether inflation in the US started easing in April after hitting a four-decade high in March, and if yes, by how much. A soft inflation read will come as a relief that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) efforts to tame inflation start paying off, but any disappointment could send another shock wave to the market. In the FX, the US dollar extended gains, despite the easing yields yesterday, as the risk-off flows continued supporting the greenback For now, activity on Fed funds futures give almost 90% chance for a 50-bp hike in FOMC’s June meeting; there is a lot left to be priced for a 75bp hike, if the data doesn’t please. To avoid pricing in a 75bp hike at next FOMC meeting, we must see an encouraging cooldown in inflation. In the FX, the US dollar extended gains, despite the easing yields yesterday, as the risk-off flows continued supporting the greenback.   The barrel of US crude tipped a toe below the $100 level on news that the Europeans softened their sanctions proposal against the Russian oil The levels against the majors like euro, yen and sterling remained flat, but the positive pressure in the dollar, combined with Turkey’s unconventional monetary policy start giving signs of exhaustion. The dollar-try advanced past the 15 mark, and the government asked institutions to make their FX operations within the most liquid trading hours. Two weeks ago, the bank had revised its regulations on banks' reserve requirements, applying them to the asset side of balance sheets in order to strengthen its macroprudential policy toolkit. The latter required reserves now pressure the overnight rates to the upside – suggesting that the unconventional policy is near limits. Energy are up and down… but mostly up. The barrel of US crude tipped a toe below the $100 level on news that the Europeans softened their sanctions proposal against the Russian oil, but oil is already above the $100 this morning. The upside potential is fading due to slower global growth prospects, and the Chinese lockdown. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:24 All eyes on US inflation data! 2:30 Market update 3:50 Strong US dollar threatens lira stability 5:50 Risks in energy markets remain tilted to the upside 6.35 Why Chinese zero Covid policy won’t work 8.07 Coinbase hit hard by crypto meltdown 8:39 Energy, still the best option for investors Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.  

S&P 500 modest risk-on turn talked yesterday, is underway – with adequate support from bonds. That means the dollar is going to get under daily selling pressure, with positive consequences for assets spanning commonidities, precious metals and sure supporting tech as well (looking at TLT to cast a decisive vote for Nasdaq). Unfolding just fine, but what about the CPI effect? Likely to temper the oh so fast inflation theme, at least temporarily – and that would take pressure off the Fed‘s hand being twisted by the markets. Note though how both the 2-year and 10-year Treasury paused over the last days. Together with the arriving as anticipated negative quarterly GDP print, the temporary slowdown in pace of inflation would get an ally in retreating (especially long-term) Treasury yields reflecting the darkening real economy prospects. Time for a relief S&P 500 rally with both tech and value participation, if only HYG can perform somewhat better. Time for a relief S&P 500 rally with both tech and value participation, if only HYG can perform somewhat better. The bulls have a chance, and can run with it as best as they can. Cryptos thus far are modestly leaning in the „local bottom is in“ direction (in spite of the tectonic Tether developments), so the odds are for price gains across the board (at the expense of the dollar) during today – as long as markets interpret the upcoming CPI reading as slowing down / slowly peaking. Yes, since Jun 2020 when I started to talk early effects of inflation, the last week has been the first time when I raised the good likelihood of inflation making a local peak when May / Jun CPI readings come in, only to spring quickly back to life on the „economy is slowing, do something“ change in tune of demands made to the Fed. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM At these trying times for real asset bulls, let‘s take the proper precious metals perspective, enjoy the rich caption: It‘s the dollar, yields and miners coming back to life that would mark the coming upleg arrival Plenty of upside risk to become evident in 2H 2022, with my Monday‘s article covering the game plan for turnaround across the many assets on my daily watch. It‘s the dollar, yields and miners coming back to life that would mark the coming upleg arrival. Lean times until then. Read next: (EUR/USD) German Inflation Meets Forecasts, Pound Sterling Continues To Weaken (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD), (EUR/JPY) Japanese Yen Strengthens As Investors Seek Safe-Haven Assets| FXMAG.COM There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Today at 14:30 important macroeconomic data for the US economy will be published, which may also affect asset valuations outside the United States - we are talking about inflation data. In March 2022, inflation in the United States rose to 8.5 percent, which was the highest reading in 40 years. The rise in prices, in turn, may have affected several market measures. First, it forced the Fed to act, as the Federal Reserve is supposed to care about price stability and should raise interest rates if prices rise. This in turn could have influenced expectations of higher USD interest rates in the future and a strengthening of the dollar to levels last seen 20 years ago. Further expectations of rising rates could lead to an increase in bond yields, where for 10-year bonds they are in the region of 3%. The increase in bond yields, expectations of further tightening of monetary policy, and shrinking of the Fed's balance sheet, in turn, are information that could adversely affect the stock market, which in the case of the Nasdaq 100 index found itself in bear market territory. This spiral seen in many markets may continue until investors fully discount inflation, rising yields, and expectations of interest rate hikes. Interestingly, the latter had already begun to fall earlier in the week as recession fears increased. Currently, based on the federal funds rate contracts, the market is assuming a peak for hikes in mid-2023 at 3.00-3.25 percent. That's lower than the 3.5-.375 percent assumed as recently as the beginning of the month. The determinant, in turn, of whether there is a chance of full pricing for U.S. rate hikes may be where inflation will be. If this one peaks this six months and starts to fall, the market may stop assuming very aggressive Fed action. This, in turn, could bring relief to the bond market, the stock market, and also lead to the US dollar being close to its cyclical peak. Hence, today's and subsequent data on price growth in the U.S. economy could be so important. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

The dollar got a fresh boost, with stocks coming under renewed pressure after a new batch of US inflation data. The annual inflation rate slowed from 8.5% to 8.3% The US consumer price index rose 0.3% in April after 1.2% a month earlier. The annual inflation rate slowed from 8.5% to 8.3% but was higher than the expected 8.1% y/y. Particularly worrying for markets is the development of core inflation. The corresponding index added 0.6% m/m and 6.2% y/y last month, higher than the expected 0.4% and 6.0%, continuing the sprawl of inflation. Higher-than-expected inflation is now positive for the dollar and weighs on equities as it suggests a more robust Fed response While the annual rate of core and core inflation seems to have peaked, higher-than-expected inflation is now positive for the dollar and weighs on equities as it suggests a more robust Fed response. With inflation far from the 2% target, the Fed will be inclined to act faster (raise rates more than 50 points at a time) or stop hiking at a higher level. A significant risk demand indicator, bitcoin, has already moved out of the range with a lower boundary in January 2021 Locally, we see a tug-of-war around the dollar against the euro and yen near the lows of the past two weeks and swings against the pound and the franc near this week’s extremes. However, a significant risk demand indicator, bitcoin, has already moved out of the range with a lower boundary in January 2021. The S&P500 and Nasdaq futures were also pushed back to this week’s lows, indicating continued bearish pressure.

Gold dipped to $1832 on Wednesday morning, pulling back to a critical support line in the form of the 200-day moving average, losing more than 11% from the peak levels reached in early March. Gold has been losing buyers amid a jump in US government bond yields Gold has been under systematic pressure for the past month and a half amid a rally in the dollar. In addition to this increase in the underlying price, gold has been losing buyers amid a jump in US government bond yields. However, it is too early to talk about a break in the uptrend in gold, but only a retreat into deep defences ahead of essential data. Most of the time, the correlation between inflation expectations and long-term bond yields governs the dynamics in gold. Weak real bond yields lead to a pull in the precious metal as investors look to protect the purchasing value of capital.  A significant event for the gold outlook is today’s US inflation release With high interest rates and inflation control, investors prefer to earn yields in bonds by selling off gold. A significant event for the gold outlook is today’s US inflation release. The market reaction to this event could be decisive for gold in the coming days or weeks. If gold manages to develop a pullback from current levels, we could see a sharp increase in buying over the next few days Consolidation below $1830 on the day would be an essential bearish signal that could rapidly decline towards $1800. Moreover, there would be an immediate question of double-top formation through 2020 and 2022 peaks as an early signal of a long-term downward trend with a potential of $1200. If gold manages to develop a pullback from current levels, we could see a sharp increase in buying over the next few days, as we did in early February and late November. But unlike those episodes, this time, the bears might not wait for a quick reversal, and a further rally would be an important signal that gold continues to claw its way out of the prolonged correction. In this case, the nearest stops might be the levels near $1900, and further, the market might quickly target a renewal of the historic highs above $2075 before the end of the year. 

The inflation concerns are easing ahead of today’s US CPI reading. We doubt central bankers will back down so soon, however. Markets are coming around to our view that a peak is near in yields, but we think it might still be a couple of months away In this article US 10yr edges back below 3% on remarkable easing in inflation expectations The inflation scare is easing but beware of circular reasonings Global growth gloom means holding psychologically important levels will be more difficult Today’s events and market views The peak in yields may be near US 10yr edges back below 3% on remarkable easing in inflation expectations The juxtaposition between rising real rates and falling inflation expectations remains, and over the past 24 hours the fall in inflation expectations has been dominant. And that’s why the US 10yr yield has dipped back below 3%. Right now, US 10yr inflation expectations are in the region of 2.65%. They were in excess of 3%, albeit briefly, a few weeks back, at which point talk of a 75bp hike in June were sounding like a solid call. Now that inflation expectations are well down, the 50bp promised looks fine. "10yr real rate in the area of 1% would not look out of whack" Meanwhile the 10yr real yield is now above 30bp. Add that to the inflation expectation and we get the sub-3% 10yr Treasury yield. The move higher in the real yield has been spectacular. Back in March it was deeper than -100bp. The move to 30bp is a sign that the economy has morphed away from the need for ultra-loose policy. And a continued move higher takes it towards a more normal footing. In fact a 10yr real rate in the area of 1% would not look out of whack. If we got there, inflation expectations would fall far more. The adjustment higher in real yields is a threat to risk asset valuations Source: Refinitiv, ING   Today’s US CPI number will be important, but not determinative. In other words it should not have a material impact on the 10yr inflation expectation. That said, if it’s an outsized / surprise number, it’s then more likely to have an impact out the curve. Our central view is in line with the market view, where we do see a fall in contemporaneous inflation, consistent with the recent tendency for inflation expectations to ease lower. We’ve been surprised by this though, and think it’s too early to call it a trend. The inflation scare is easing but beware of circular reasonings The ‘peak inflation’ narrative should receive a boost from slowing US annual headline and core inflation readings today but we would be cautious about chasing the move lower in rates. As always, forward-looking markets could apply a heavy discount to central bank rhetoric but an acceleration in monthly core CPI means Fed officials are unlikely to change tack just yet. One should also remember that the decline from the inflation peak will be very slow indeed, keeping pressure on the Fed to act. Swaps show inflation is no longer the market's only concern Source: Refinitiv, ING   US CPI and Eurozone HICP swaps have dropped significantly this month Further afield, inflation compensation offered by US CPI and Eurozone HICP swaps has dropped significantly this month. Should markets conclude that central banks can now afford to be less hawkish? Only up to a point. To some extent, the drop in inflation swaps is owing to a deteriorating global macro environment, but the post-FOMC timing of this drop also suggests that it has at least as much to do with expectations that central banks will deliver on expected tightening. We would be careful with such circular reasonings. Global growth gloom means holding psychologically important levels will be more difficult For an example of the doubt setting in investors’ mind about central banks’ ability to tighten policy, look no further than yesterday’s better-than-expected German (Zew) and US (National Federation of Independent Business) sentiment indicators. None of the readings was enough to alleviate global growth gloom but the NFIB details in particular could have brought inflation fears back to the fore. We suspect it is too early to call the end of the hawkish re-pricing, with central bankers still very much on their front-foot when it comes to delivering monetary tightening. Bonds risk failing a psychologically important test Source: Refinitiv, ING   We have sympathy with the growing view that there is a short time limit to this tightening cycle We think a better candidate for a peak in yields in this cycle is during the third quarter of this year, after the ECB’s expected first hike and after the couple of additional 50bp hikes the Fed has committed to. This being said, turning points are notoriously difficult to pick and we have sympathy with the growing view that there is a short time limit to this tightening cycle. Should 10Y bonds fail to hold on to their recent jump above the psychologically important levels of 3% for Treasuries and 1% for Bunds, it may take a lot of good news to test these levels again. Today’s events and market views Germany (10Y) and Portugal (8Y) make up today’s Euro sovereign supply slate. This will come on top of a dual tranche NGeu syndicated deal in the 3Y (new issue) and 30Y (tap) sectors. In the US session, the Treasury will auction 10Y notes. The main release of note in the afternoon will be the April CPI report. Consensus is for the annual readings to cool down from the previous month but a monthly acceleration in core could muddy the picture for rates. There is also an extensive list of ECB speakers on the schedule, culminating with interventions from Christine Lagarde and Isabel Schnabel. TagsRates Daily   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

US inflation has slowed marginally in April thanks to a fall in used car prices and gasoline. Fed rate hikes will bring demand into better balance with supply, but in the absence of major improvements in supply chains, labour shortages and geopolitical tensions the descent back to the 2% target will be slow In this article Inflation finally slows Past the peak? Housing will make inflation especially sticky Fed has a lot more work to do Rental prices continue to remain elevated 8.3% Annual rate of inflation for April 2022   Inflation finally slows In the immediate aftermath of the pandemic amid plunging energy, air fare and hotel prices, inflation bottomed at 0.1% year-on-year in May 2020 and has been on a rapid climbed to 8.5% ever since. Today though, the annual rate of US consumer price inflation has slowed from 8.5% in March to 8.3% in April. The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices slowed marginally more to stand at 6.2% versus 6.5% in March. While this was in line with our forecasts, the market had been looking for a larger moderation with consensus forecasts of 8.1% for headline CPI and 6.0% for core. The details show energy prices fell 2.7% month-on-month on lower gasoline costs, but this will be fully reversed next month given gasoline is back at all-time highs. Used car prices fell 0.4% MoM, not as much as hoped given the Mannheim car auction data, while apparel fell 0.8% after a strong series of price hikes. Everything else was firm though with food prices rising 0.9% MoM, new vehicles up 1.1% and primary rents (0.6% MoM) and owners' equivalent rent up 0.5% MoM. Airline fares jumped another 18.6% MoM! The chart below shows the contributions and clearly shows there is a moderation in core goods prices (orange bars), but this is being offset to a large extent by the service sector (yellow). Contributions to annual US inflation Source: Macrobond, ING Past the peak? We think that March 2022 will have marked the peak for annual inflation. Mannheim used car auction prices are down 6.4% over the past three months so used vehicle prices should fall further and they have quite a heavy weight of 4.1% of the total basket of goods and services within CPI. The shift in consumer demand from goods, whose availability has been significantly impacted by supply chain issues, towards services should also contribute to a gradual moderation in the rate of inflation. Nonetheless, we remain nervous about the impact from gasoline and the growing price pressures within services. Moreover, substantial declines in the annual rate of inflation are unlikely to materialise until there are significant improvements in geopolitical tensions (that would get energy prices lower), supply chain strains and labour market shortages. Unfortunately, there is little sign of any of this happening anytime soon – The Russia-Ukraine conflict shows no end in sight, Chinese lockdowns will continue to impact the global economy while last Friday’s jobs report showed a decline in the labour force participation rate leaving the economy with 1.9 job vacancies for every unemployed person in America. At the moment consumer demand is firm and businesses have pricing power, meaning that they can pass higher costs onto their customers. This was highlighted by yesterday’s National Federation of Independent Businesses survey reporting that a net 70% of small businesses raised prices over the past three months, with a net 46% expecting to raise prices further. We haven’t seen this sort of pricing power for the small business sector before and we doubt it is any weaker for larger firms. NFIB survey shows firms can continue to pass higher costs onto customers Source: Macrobond, ING Housing will make inflation especially sticky Furthermore, the housing market remains red hot and this feeds through into primary rents and owners’ equivalent rent (OER) components of inflation with a lag of around 12-18 months. Rent contracts are typically only changed once a year when your contract is renewed so it takes time to feed through while OER is a based on a survey question for what you would rent the house you own out for. Homeowners may not necessarily closely follow the month-to-month changes in the housing market so there is a delayed response. As the chart below shows, the housing components, accounting for more than 30% of the CPI basket, are not likely to turn lower soon. No reason to expect an imminent turn in rent components Source: Macrobond, ING Fed has a lot more work to do This situation intensifies the pressure on the Fed to hike interest rates. The central bank wants to take some of the heat out of the economy and bring demand back into better balance with the supply capacity of the US economy. This potentially means aggressive rate hikes and the risks of a marked slowdown/recession. This message was re-affirmed by several officials over the past couple of days and we look for 50bp rate hikes at the upcoming June, July and September FOMC meetings. With the Fed running down its balance sheet we expect the Fed to revert back to 25bp from November onwards with the target rate peaking at 3.25% in early 2023. Even with this Fed action and hopefully some improvements in the supply side story we have doubts that CPI will get back to 2% target before the end of 2023. TagsUS Recession Inflation Federal Reserve   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Gold held near three-month lows near 1,825 USD per ounce on Friday and is falling for the fourth week in a row from 1990 USD. One factor for the decline in gold prices could be the strengthening U.S. dollar, which seems to have stabilized near the 20-year high reached on Thursday. The USD strengthening may have followed the release of US consumer and producer inflation data, which seems to reinforce expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. This, in turn, may raise concerns about a weaker global economic outlook, helping to boost USD demand. The recent strengthening of the USD may also be related to the divergence in monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic Recall that the U.S. core CPI remained near a 40-year high of 8.3 percent in April, while the core CPI also exceeded expectations at 6.2 percent, fueling fears that high price levels may persist. Thus, markets are anticipating increases of 50 basis points at each of the next two Fed meetings in June and July. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM This could also be significant for the EUR/USD major pair, which approached the 1.0350 level this week, its lowest level since December 2016. The recent strengthening of the USD may also be related to the divergence in monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic. The Fed is moving towards aggressive hikes, while the European Central Bank may raise interest rates by 50-75 basis points in total by the end of the year. Thus, the scale of divergences seems to be very large. Bitcoin rebounded yesterday from its lowest level in almost 17 months and crossed the $30,000 mark today In addition to gold and the dollar, attention should again turn to the cryptocurrency market and towards stock market indices, where in both cases an attempt to defend against possible further declines may be underway. Bitcoin rebounded yesterday from its lowest level in almost 17 months and crossed the $30,000 mark today. Despite this, the world's most popular and widely used cryptocurrency is at this point on its way to its worst week in four months, falling more than 10 percent. Yesterday, the market additionally saw a likely panic as the tether to USD exchange rate departed at 1:1. At the apogee of fears for the collapse of the largest stablecoin, the cryptocurrency market seemed to have reached its weekly lows. Currently, USDT is trying to get back to the 1:1 exchange rate, and the rest of the market seems to be stabilizing. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin’s Price Tanks Along With Equities. U.S. Stock Market Awaits CPI Report, Poor Performance From The FTSE 100. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

The focus for the upcoming week will naturally be a wrath of Fed speak and the latest US CPI data which is expected to show inflation decelerated sharply last month. A sharper decline with prices could vindicate Fed Chair Powell’s decision to remove a 75 basis-point rate increase at the next couple policy meetings.   Russia Russia’s inflation has been accelerating sharply since the invasion of Ukraine. In March, CPI rose to 16.7% (YoY) and is expected to climb to 18.1% in April. The driver behind the sharp upswing has been Western sanctions, which have reduced the availability of consumer imports and key components for domestic products. CPI is expected to continue to climb in the coming months.   China China releases its Balance of Trade on Monday and Inflation on Tuesday. Both have downside risks given the disruption to business and the collapse in property sales and sentiment due to the covid-zero policy. Restrictions continue tightening in Beijing and the covid-zero policy has become the biggest headwind to a China recovery. The government reaffirmed its commitment to the policy Friday, sending China stocks lower. Additionally, US-listed China stocks face new delisting risk from US regulators that is weighing on Hong Kong markets especially, where most dual listings live. Negative headlines around Covid 19 or US delisting over the weekend could send China equities sharply lower into the start of the week. USD/CNY and USD/CNH have now risen from  6.4000 to 6.7000 in just two weeks. The PBOC remains comfortable at this stage, being a back door stimulus to manufacturers. The PBOC USD/CNY fixing will be the key indicator as to whether the authorities have said Yuan depreciation has gone far enough.

Summary:  Eurozone CPI inflation came in lower than expected. CPI inflation drops for the first time since May 2022. Initial market reactions. The Eurozone CPI inflation  The market had originally forecasted a CPI (YoY) inflation of 10% for the Eurozone, the actual figure came in at 9.9%, missing market expectations slightly. This could indicate to the market that the European Central Bank should continue its interest rate hiking cycle.  The falling inflation during September marks the first drop in Eurozone CPI inflation since May 2022. The falling inflation could provide the European Central Bank with an incentive to continue on their hawkish interest rate hiking path.  Effect of the CPI inflation data When the European Central Bank meets again at the end of the month, it is anticipated that it will boost its benchmark interest rates by an additional 75 basis points, adding to the total number of rises announced since July of 125 basis points. However, the Euro Area is predicted to "stagnate later in the year and in the first quarter of 2023," and the fear of a weakening economy may induce the central bank to implement lower rate increases over the following months. With the U.K. inflation figures, concerns that central bank tightening may cause a worldwide downturn have reemerged, reversing the previous upbeat feeling brought on by solid earnings reports and dissipating concerns about systemic risk from Britain's debt markets. The U.K’s hotter than expected inflation figure has also put pressure on the markets. In addition, the European economy has been weighed down by the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine, and the looming energy crisis. The Initial market reaction in the wake of the softer than expected CPI inflation data saw the Euro weaken against both the US Dollar and the Pound sterling. The initial market reaction saw both the HSBC shares and the iBEX index rise. Sources: finance.yahoo.com, marketsummary.com, ft.com, investing.com

Summary: The UK's inflation rate accelerated to 11.1 percent in October. Due to COVID, more disabled employees are now employed. Reports that two individuals were killed by a Russian-made rocket in eastern Poland caused risk-sensitive markets to fall. UK inflation surpassed expectations On the basis of rising energy and food prices, the UK's inflation rate accelerated to 11.1 percent in October, reaching a new 41-year high. The rate increased from 10.1% in September, according to the Office for National Statistics, bringing inflation to its highest point since October 1981. In a Reuters poll, economists predicted a rate of 10.7%. The government's energy price guarantee, which set a maximum on gas and electricity bills at £2,500 for a household using both fuels on average, did not prevent the significant increase in living expenses. One encouraging aspect of the data was that core inflation, which excludes food and energy, remained constant in October at 6.5%, matching its level from the previous month. In his Autumn Statement on Thursday, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt blamed Russia's invasion of Ukraine for the rising cost of living crisis and promised to make "difficult but necessary decisions on tax and spending" to assist lower inflation. “We cannot have long-term, sustainable growth with high inflation. Tomorrow I will set out a plan to get debt falling, deliver stability, and drive down inflation while protecting the most vulnerable,” Hunt said. UK inflation accelerates to 41-year high of 11.1% https://t.co/N0fRWxcK9o — Financial Times (@FT) November 16, 2022 Hiring remote disabled workers could assist in Americas labor crisis Although the end of America's widespread labor crisis is still not in sight, some economists contend that having a workforce with a wider range of abilities in today's hybrid workplace could assist. Due to COVID, more disabled employees are now employed thanks to the shift to working from home or using a hybrid approach. Disability-related adults between the ages of 25 and 54 "are 3.5 percentage points more likely to be employed in Q2 2022 than they were pre-pandemic," according to the Economic Innovation Group (EIG). In comparison, non-disabled people continued to have a 1.1 percentage point lower likelihood of being employed. The coronavirus epidemic, which eliminated 500,000 jobs from the American workforce, and the Great Resignation, which began following the outbreak, are both factors in the current labor crisis. According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, there would still be around 4 million unfilled positions even if every unemployed person found employment. Prior to COVID, 6.3% of people with disabilities and 5.9% of people without disabilities worked from home. Because it removes obstacles like driving to work and other locations that can be challenging to manage, working remotely boosts productivity for employees with impairments. She pointed out that perks like closed captioning, flexible working hours, medical breaks, and the use of one's own assistive equipment help employees produce the highest-quality work, boosting a company's financial success. Due to their unique perspectives and environments, these people really have an advantage over their non-disabled coworkers who aren't disabled. Hiring remote disabled workers could help close the labor gap, economist says https://t.co/GkQxnaRg1D by @tanyakaushal00 pic.twitter.com/91zBf47AGI — Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) November 16, 2022 Missile that hit poland weighing on Asian stocks As investors sought more information on a potential Russian missile assault on Poland, Asian stock markets declined on Wednesday. However, anticipation that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates more slowly helped to limit losses. As investors locked in a stellar three-day gain streak, Hong Kong stocks had the worst day, with the Hang Seng index down 1.1%. With recent increases, the Hang Seng has come very close to confirming a bull market rally from recent lows. Following reports that two individuals were killed by a Russian-made rocket in eastern Poland on Wednesday, risk-sensitive markets fell. If the attack was carried out by Russia, it would be the first time since Moscow invaded Ukraine that a NATO member had been attacked by Moscow (NATO). The action might also herald an escalation in the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, especially in light of NATO involvement. However, early remarks from Moscow and Washington imply that such an outcome might not occur. *GLOBAL STOCKS SLIP IN CAUTIOUS TRADE AS MARKETS WEIGH POLAND MISSILE STRIKE https://t.co/IZatRFKYp3 — Investing.com (@Investingcom) November 16, 2022 Sources: finance.yahoo.com, twitter.com, ft.com, investing.com

With the White House and Republican leaders agreeing a deal on the debt ceiling at the weekend markets are now obsessing about whether the deal will get the necessary votes to pass into law, as partisan interests line up to criticise the deal.   With the deadline for a deal now said to be next Monday, 5th June a vote will need to go forward by the end of the week, with ratings agencies already sharpening their pencils on downgrades for the US credit rating. European markets sank sharply yesterday along with bond yields, as markets started to fret about a recession, while oil prices sank 4% over demand concerns. US markets also struggled for gains although the Nasdaq 100 has continued to outperform as a small cohort of tech stocks contrive to keep US markets afloat. As we look towards today's European open and the end of the month, we look set for further declines after Asia markets slid on the back of another set of weak China PMIs for May. We'll also be getting another look at how things are looking with respect to economic conditions in Europe, as well as an insight into some key inflation numbers, although core prices will be missing from this snapshot. French Q1 GDP is expected to be confirmed at 0.2% while headline CPI inflation for May is expected to slow from 6.9% to 6.4%. Italian Q1 GDP is also expected to be confirmed at 0.5, and headline CPI for May is expected to slow from 8.7% to 7.5%. We finish up with the flash CPI inflation numbers from Germany, which is also expected to see a slowdown in headline from 7.6% to 6.7% in May. While this is expected to offer further encouragement that headline inflation in Europe is slowing, that isn't the problem that is causing investors sleepless nights. It's the level of core inflation and for that we'll have to wait until tomorrow and EU core CPI numbers for May, which aren't expected to show much sign of slowing.   We'll also get another insight into the US jobs markets and the number of vacancies in April, which is expected to fall from 9.59m in March to 9.4m. While a sizeable drop from the levels we were seeing at the end of last year of 11m, the number of vacancies is still over 2m above the levels 2 years ago, and over 3m above the levels they were pre-pandemic. The size of this number suggests that the labour market still has some way to go before we can expect to see a meaningful rise in the unemployment rate off its current low levels of 3.4%. EUR/USD – slipped to the 1.0673 area before rebounding with the 1.0610 area the next key support. We need to see a rebound above 1.0820 to stabilise.   GBP/USD – rebounded from the 1.2300 area with further support at the April lows at 1.2270. Pushed back to the 1.2450 area and the 50-day SMA, before slipping back. A move through 1.2460 is needed to open up the 1.2520 area.   EUR/GBP – slid to a 5-month low yesterday at 0.8628 just above the next support at 0.8620. A move below 0.8620 opens up the December 2022 lows at 0.8558. Main resistance remains at the 0.8720 area.   USD/JPY – ran into some selling pressure at 140.90 yesterday, slipping back to the 139.60 area which is a key support area. A break below 139.50 could see a return to the 137.00 area, thus delaying a potential move towards 142.50 which is the 61.8% retracement of the down move from the recent highs at 151.95 and lows at 127.20.   FTSE100 is expected to open 22 points lower at 7,500   DAX is expected to open 64 points lower at 15,845   CAC40 is expected to open 34 points lower at 7,175

EU CPI flash (May) – 01/06 The fall in energy prices over the last few months has seen headline inflation across Europe decline quite sharply in recent months. Having hit a peak of 10.7% back in October the headline number fell back to 6.9% in March only to tick higher in April to 7%.     Core prices have proved to be somewhat sticker, these hit a record high of 5.7% in March and only slipped back to 5.6% in April. This presents a problem for the European Central Bank with growing splits on the governing council as to how many more rate hikes are coming over the next few months.   The chatter from central bank officials has been very hawkish of late, with talk of more 50bps rate hikes, however few believe the ECB will be able to continue to hike if the Federal Reserve starts its rate pause in June.   This week's flash May CPI could well make the ECB's life more difficult if prices start to tick higher again and raise the prospect that rates may have to either go higher or stay at current levels for much longer. Expectations are for another fall in the annual rate to 6.4%, however core prices don't appear to be going anywhere with a modest tick down to 5.5% expected.   By Michael Hewson (Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)

National Bank of Poland leaves rates unchanged, focus on tomorrow’s press conference The National Bank of Poland rates and statement after the June Monetary Policy Council meeting were unchanged. More information should come from tomorrow's conference by the central bank president. We expect a slightly more dovish stance.   As expected, NBP rates remain unchanged (reference rate still at 6.75%). The post-meeting statement noted a decline in first quarter GDP and a further contraction in consumer demand, with investment still growing. The document again underlined the favourable labour market situation, including low unemployment. As expected, the MPC noted a further decline in CPI inflation and a marked decline in core inflation in May. The Council continued to see a pass-through of rising costs onto finished goods prices. Aside from updating paragraphs on the first quarter GDP figure and the latest inflation data, the rest of the statement was largely unchanged. The Council reiterated its view that the return of inflation to the NBP's target will be gradual due to the scale and persistence of past external shocks.     The key event in the context of the monetary policy outlook is tomorrow's press conference by NBP President Glapiński. We expect its tone to be more dovish than a month ago. The decline in inflation has been faster than expected (albeit close to the NBP's March projection). The peak in core inflation is most likely behind us, and the strengthening of the zloty and lower commodity prices should favour further disinflation. The short-term inflation outlook has improved, and some MPC members have again begun to raise the topic of a readiness to cut interest rates before the end of this year.     In our view, the medium-term inflation outlook remains uncertain, and with a tight labour market, high wage pressures and strong consumer acceptance to price increases, inflation may therefore stabilise in the medium term at levels well above the NBP target. The NBP's projection, assuming it leaves interest rates unchanged, suggests a return of inflation to the target by the end of 2025, and a possible rate cut before the end of 2023 could delay this.   Therefore, in the baseline scenario, we see no rate cuts this year. However, an improvement in the short-term inflation outlook, the strengthening of the zloty and a possible softening of other central banks' rhetoric in the coming months could serve as arguments for a single MPC rate cut in the second half of the year. We estimate the probability of such a scenario at 30-40%.

NBU’s policy ensuring financial stability during the war Throughout the conflict the National Bank of Ukraine has remained active and effective in ensuring financial and exchange rate stability and has controlled inflation by hiking interest rates to 25%. In 2022, a part of the extraordinary public needs was monetised by the NBU, but the impact of these interventions was broadly neutralised by mopping up the liquidity of the banking sector.   In recent months, Ukraine has benefited from declines in global energy commodity prices and the inflation rate is dampened by the high statistical base.   CPI inflation slowed to 17.9%YoY in April, from 21.3% in March and 26.6% back in December. Core inflation slowed as well from 19.8% in March to 16.9% in April. Given heightened wartime uncertainty, we expect the NBU to wait for a more decisive period of disinflation and start interest rate cuts in early 2024.   Inflation and NBU policy rate (%)   Fiscal and external accounts driven by external aid Ukraine’s huge public and external financing needs have been met by foreign grants and loans, including a new four-year IMF programme of US$15.6bn.   In 2022, the fiscal balance reached almost 17% of GDP, without grants it was around 10% of GDP higher. A near 30% collapse in exports and fall in imports of less than 5% led to a huge trade gap but sizeable current account surplus as the gap was compensated for by foreign grants.   From 2023, the CA is expected to post a large deficit but accompanied by rising FDI flows.     The fiscal position is set to deteriorate further this year but improve gradually in the medium term. Nonetheless, the country will continue to rely heavily on donors’ support for internal defence, provision of social services and ensuring macroeconomic stability.   Fiscal and current account balance (% of GDP)    

Asia week ahead: Bank Indonesia and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas likely to extend pause Bank Indonesia and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas meet next week and we expect both to leave policy settings untouched.   BI and BSP likely to extend pause Bank Indonesia (BI) and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) both hold policy meetings next week. Moderating inflation coupled with the Federal Reserve hold at the June meeting means we are expecting both BI and BSP to hold rates steady. BI has been on hold since February, while this will be the second straight meeting that the BSP will leave the policy rate at 6.25%.   We expect BI Governor Perry Warjiyo and BSP Governor Felipe Medalla to be on hold in the near term while assessing the outlook for the Fed.   China rates to dip post PBoC cut Loan prime rates in China are setto track the recent cut from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). Thus, we are looking for the 1Y loan prime rate to fall to 3.55% (from 3.65%) and the 5Y loan prime rate to settle at 4.2%.   Japan inflation and PMI numbers out next week Nationwide CPI inflation and PMI indices are due for release in Japan next week. Recently reported Tokyo CPI inflation numbers suggest that we could see a similar downtrend in the national figures with headline inflation possibly dipping to 3.2% year-on-year from 3.5%. Core inflation excluding food and energy however could be sticky and remain close to the 4% range. PMI indices recently posted record levels of expansion but we feel that we could see a reversal in June. Despite this potential pullback, we still expect both the services and manufacturing indices to report a solid expansion.   Asia Economic Calendar

Poland: Further declines in industrial activity and PPI Industrial production fell by 3.2% in May for the fourth consecutive month. Producer price growth slowed to 3.1% year-on-year from 6.2% YoY a month earlier. Ongoing disinflation may allow for symbolic policy easing by the National Bank of Poland this autumn. The drop in industrial production of 3.2%YoY came close to expectations (consensus: -3.0% YoY), following a 6.0% YoY decline in April (revised). This was the fourth consecutive month of year-on-year production decline. Adjusted for seasonal factors, production fell by 1.0% month-on-month, contracting for the third consecutive month. Manufacturing output fell by 2.7% YoY. We also saw declines in mining (11.2% YoY), power generation (6.5% YoY), as well as water supply and waste management (2.4% YoY).   Among the manufacturing divisions, the deepest year-on-year declines were seen in the production of wood products (22.5%) and chemicals (20.7%). By contrast, the largest increases were seen in the repair, maintenance and installation of machinery and equipment (36.2%), the manufacture of electrical equipment – including automotive batteries – (14.5%) and the manufacture of vehicles (11.7%).   The slightly slower-than-April year-on-year decline in industrial production was due to a more favourable calendar pattern, among other factors. May's manufacturing PMI report also suggested a slight improvement in new orders and current production, but a continued decline in seasonally adjusted month-on-month production remains concerning. We expect that the year-on-year decline in production will continue over the coming months. A positive sign is the increase in the production of capital goods (9.1% YoY), suggesting continued investment growth.   Producer price growth (PPI) slowed in April to 3.1% YoY (ING: 4.7%; consensus: 4.6%) from 6.2% YoY a month earlier (revised data). Compared to April, prices declined in all sections except water supply and waste management. This is the fourth consecutive month that the PPI index declined in month-on-month terms, and prices in manufacturing have been falling since November. On a year-on-year basis, declines in processing prices (1.7%) are being supported by a significant discount in the coke and refined petroleum products manufacturing division (30.5%). Prices in mining (15.5%) and energy production (37.0%) are still markedly higher than a year ago.   Producer prices remain on a clear disinflationary path, and the Monetary Policy Council expects CPI inflation to fall further as well. Recent statements by National Bank of Poland President Adam Glapinski indicate that the drop in CPI inflation to single-digit levels in September, which we expect, could result in a rate cut this autumn. This will not yet be the start of a full easing cycle, which we expect only in the fourth quarter of 2024. We see a number of inflation risks in the medium term, highlighted by central bankers in core markets maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance.

Asia week ahead: Bank of Korea to extend pause The Bank of Korea (BoK) meets to discuss policy next week while India and China report inflation. Meanwhile, Singapore will release its latest GDP figures.   Inflation in India We get June CPI inflation for India next week, which will likely show that inflation remained in the low 4% area, close to the mid-point of the Reserve Bank of India’s target range of 2-6%. This leaves real policy rates at one of the highest levels in the region (nominal policy rate is 6.5%) and may help to explain the Indian rupee's recent resilience. We also get India’s industrial production data for June. June’s Manufacturing PMI dropped to 57.8 from 58.7, so we may well see the rate of growth moderate from the 4.2% year-on-year rate recorded in May.   China loan and inflation reports China’s aggregate financing data for June will be released. Within the total, new Chinese yuan (CNY) loans will likely come in lower than the CNY2806bn level recorded in June last year, reflecting the weakness of investment. CPI inflation data is also published, which will show inflation remaining close to zero. Weak domestic demand is the main culprit, though there are also some helpful base effects and we should see inflation return to around a 2% rate over the coming months. PPI inflation will remain strongly negative, reflecting weak factory gate as well as subdued commodity prices.

The BoE is losing confidence in these surveys But June’s decision to lift rates by 50 basis points, having been hiking more gradually over recent months, showed that the wider BoE committee is losing patience and confidence in these forward-looking measures. The hawks would point to the survey question on "price growth", which shows firms consistently predicting inflation to be lower than what is actually realised, as the chart below demonstrates. The Bank has also produced interesting research showing that firms are resetting prices more regularly than in the past, which the hawks could argue shows that inflation is more ingrained than it once was. The reality is that the Bank is likely to pay less attention than usual to these surveys, and we think the next few policy decisions will be guided by CPI inflation, and to some extent average earnings, and not a lot else. We’ll get fresh data on the latter next week, and it looks like regular pay growth (which excluded volatile bonuses) will stay either flat or a touch lower on a year-on-year basis. The key question is whether the recent re-acceleration in pay growth is largely a function of the higher National Living Wage, or whether it reflects renewed underlying momentum in wage setting.   Realised price growth has typically been higher than what firms had expected   When it comes to CPI, we expect to see the headline rate dip to 8% in June’s numbers from 8.7% currently, and down again to 6.5-7% in July. But that’s mainly a function of lower electricity/gas prices and a reflection of the sharp rise in petrol prices we saw at the same time last year. We’d expect services inflation to notch slightly lower over the summer, but probably not enough to prompt another change in strategy among committee members. We therefore expect a 25 basis point rate hike in August and another in September – and we certainly wouldn’t rule out more. But ultimately we think the surveys, including the Decision Maker Panel, do contain some useful signals. And by November, we think the committee will have more confidence that inflation is indeed easing, to enable it to pause its rate hike cycle.

Moderate outlook From a sectoral point of view, the strength of demand for tourism-related activities and the high level of bookings for this summer should support French economic activity in the third quarter, but the support should diminish thereafter. At the same time, the industrial sector is suffering from weakening global demand. According to survey results, business leaders' assessment of order books has remained very weak for several months. At the same time, inventories of finished products remain high. This means that production is likely to decline over the coming months, as companies see no new orders coming in and have to clear their inventories. The PMI indices for the manufacturing sector have been in contraction territory (below 50) since January. In short, the growth outlook for the French economy is moderate. Growth in the second quarter will be weak, with a fall in GDP remaining a risk. Growth in the third quarter should be slightly better, supported by the good health of the tourism sector, which continues to benefit greatly from the post-pandemic recovery. But this is likely to lose momentum in the fourth quarter, and the end of 2023 and 2024 look weaker, against the backdrop of a global economic slowdown and high interest rates that will have an increasing impact on demand. We are expecting growth of around 0.5% this year. For 2024, the gradual recovery in household purchasing power thanks to lower inflation is likely to be offset by even weaker global demand. As a result, we are less optimistic than the central banks and are forecasting French GDP growth of 0.6% in 2024 (compared with a forecast of 1% by the Banque de France).     The trend toward disinflation has begun and will continue Inflation in France stood at 4.3% in June, compared with 5.1% in May, thanks to a fall in energy prices and slower growth in food prices. The fall in inflation is set to continue over the coming months. Growth in producer price indices has slowed markedly. In addition, business price intentions are moderating sharply: price intentions in the manufacturing sector are at their lowest since early 2021, while in the services sector they are at their lowest since November 2021. These figures are in addition to those for the prices of agricultural products, which are falling sharply, which should lead to a sharp fall in food inflation over the coming months. The trend toward disinflation is therefore clearly underway and will continue. However, this trend will probably be slower in France than in other countries, due to less favourable base effects for energy. The tariff shield and fuel rebates prevented a sharp rise in energy prices over the summer and autumn of 2022. As a result, energy inflation is likely to return to positive territory in France in the coming months, with energy prices for the remainder of 2023 likely to remain higher than their levels in 2022, unlike in other countries. This will probably keep overall inflation higher in France than elsewhere this autumn and at the end of 2023. But this does not change the overall picture: ultimately, although less visible than elsewhere, disinflation is well underway and will continue to be seen in France over the coming months. While this trend is clearly encouraging, it does not mean that the problem of inflation is completely over. There is still a major risk pocket, namely services inflation, which is likely to increase in the months ahead and will probably become the main contributor to French inflation by the end of the year. The successive increases in the minimum wage, particularly in January and May 2023, which are being passed on to all wages, will continue to push up the price of services. The Banque de France estimates that negotiated pay rises will average 4.4% in 2023 (compared with 2.8% in 2022 and 1.4% in 2021), often supplemented by a one-off bonus. Salary increases are more pronounced in sectors where recruitment difficulties are greatest. As we expect the labour market to remain tight over the coming quarters despite the economic slowdown, wage increases are likely to strengthen further. However, given the lower price intentions and sluggish demand we expect in the coming quarters, it is likely that wage increases will not be fully passed on to selling prices, weighing on margins. Therefore, inflationary pressures, including in the services sector, should eventually subside. We expect CPI inflation to average 4.6% in 2023 (5.6% for the harmonised index) and 2.1% in 2024 (3.1% for the harmonised index).   The French economy in a nutshell (%YoY)  

Moderate outlook From a sectoral point of view, the strength of demand for tourism-related activities and the high level of bookings for this summer should support French economic activity in the third quarter, but the support should diminish thereafter. At the same time, the industrial sector is suffering from weakening global demand. According to survey results, business leaders' assessment of order books has remained very weak for several months. At the same time, inventories of finished products remain high. This means that production is likely to decline over the coming months, as companies see no new orders coming in and have to clear their inventories. The PMI indices for the manufacturing sector have been in contraction territory (below 50) since January. In short, the growth outlook for the French economy is moderate. Growth in the second quarter will be weak, with a fall in GDP remaining a risk. Growth in the third quarter should be slightly better, supported by the good health of the tourism sector, which continues to benefit greatly from the post-pandemic recovery. But this is likely to lose momentum in the fourth quarter, and the end of 2023 and 2024 look weaker, against the backdrop of a global economic slowdown and high interest rates that will have an increasing impact on demand. We are expecting growth of around 0.5% this year. For 2024, the gradual recovery in household purchasing power thanks to lower inflation is likely to be offset by even weaker global demand. As a result, we are less optimistic than the central banks and are forecasting French GDP growth of 0.6% in 2024 (compared with a forecast of 1% by the Banque de France).   The trend toward disinflation has begun and will continue Inflation in France stood at 4.3% in June, compared with 5.1% in May, thanks to a fall in energy prices and slower growth in food prices. The fall in inflation is set to continue over the coming months. Growth in producer price indices has slowed markedly. In addition, business price intentions are moderating sharply: price intentions in the manufacturing sector are at their lowest since early 2021, while in the services sector they are at their lowest since November 2021. These figures are in addition to those for the prices of agricultural products, which are falling sharply, which should lead to a sharp fall in food inflation over the coming months. The trend toward disinflation is therefore clearly underway and will continue. However, this trend will probably be slower in France than in other countries, due to less favourable base effects for energy. The tariff shield and fuel rebates prevented a sharp rise in energy prices over the summer and autumn of 2022. As a result, energy inflation is likely to return to positive territory in France in the coming months, with energy prices for the remainder of 2023 likely to remain higher than their levels in 2022, unlike in other countries. This will probably keep overall inflation higher in France than elsewhere this autumn and at the end of 2023. But this does not change the overall picture: ultimately, although less visible than elsewhere, disinflation is well underway and will continue to be seen in France over the coming months. While this trend is clearly encouraging, it does not mean that the problem of inflation is completely over. There is still a major risk pocket, namely services inflation, which is likely to increase in the months ahead and will probably become the main contributor to French inflation by the end of the year. The successive increases in the minimum wage, particularly in January and May 2023, which are being passed on to all wages, will continue to push up the price of services. The Banque de France estimates that negotiated pay rises will average 4.4% in 2023 (compared with 2.8% in 2022 and 1.4% in 2021), often supplemented by a one-off bonus. Salary increases are more pronounced in sectors where recruitment difficulties are greatest. As we expect the labour market to remain tight over the coming quarters despite the economic slowdown, wage increases are likely to strengthen further. However, given the lower price intentions and sluggish demand we expect in the coming quarters, it is likely that wage increases will not be fully passed on to selling prices, weighing on margins. Therefore, inflationary pressures, including in the services sector, should eventually subside. We expect CPI inflation to average 4.6% in 2023 (5.6% for the harmonised index) and 2.1% in 2024 (3.1% for the harmonised index).   The French economy in a nutshell (% YoY)

Asia Morning Bites Australian inflation this morning is an appetizer ahead of tonight's FOMC main course.   Global Macro and Markets Global markets:  US stocks crept higher on Monday, though without much conviction. The S&P rose 0.28%, while the NASDAQ rose a further 0.61%. That leaves the NASDAQ up 35.14% ytd… Chinese stocks responded well to the supportive comments coming out of the Politburo yesterday. The Hang Seng index rose 4.1% and the CSI 300 rose 2.89%. However, we remain cautious about the economic outlook as the recent comments continue to lack detail despite the various “pledges” and “vows” to boost spending.  Ahead of today’s FOMC, which we in Asia will wake up to tomorrow morning, Treasuries were relatively quiet. 2Y yields rose 1.5bp to 4.874%, while 10Y UST yields rose just 1.2bp to 3.884%. EURUSD has drifted back down to 1.1051 on expectations of a hawkish Fed tonight. But the AUD gained ground yesterday, rising to 0.6788.  The GBP and JPY also strengthened against the USD ahead of Friday’s Bank of Japan meeting (see our latest note on this). The positive sentiment in China has enabled the CNY to strengthen to 7.1363 and the yuan was Asia’s best performing currency yesterday. Most other Asian currencies also gained against the USD. G-7 macro:  House prices in the US gained further ground in May, with both the FHFA and S&P CoreLogic measures of house prices rising more than expected.  There were also gains in the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indices. None of which plays into the “one and done” view that the market currently holds for the FOMC. Elsewhere, Germany’s Ifo survey presented more bad news, falling more than expected, though the UK’s CBI business survey was a little brighter. Today is quiet ahead of the Fed (02:00 SGT/HKT) with just US home sales and mortgage applications.   Australia:  CPI inflation for June should show further declines in inflation, with the headline rate declining to around 5.4% YoY from 5.6% currently. That would be a 3 percentage point decline from the December 2022 peak. Inflation should decline again next month. Thereafter, we will need to see month-on-month changes in inflation slow considerably to stop inflation from stabilizing at high levels or even backing higher again, as all the helpful base effects will have been used up until we get nearer to the end of the year. Singapore: Singapore reports industrial production figures for June.  We expect another month of contraction, extending the slump to 9 months of decline, tracking the downturn in non-oil domestic exports.  Industrial production should slip by 6%YoY and we can expect the slide to continue for as long as global demand stays subdued. 

  Australia’s central bank, RBA has kept its policy cash rate unchanged at 4.1% for the second consecutive month. The tonality of the latest monetary policy implies that RBA is now data-dependent, and indirectly acknowledged the negative adverse lagged effects of higher interest rates towards economic growth. Overall, RBA may continue to remain on hold on its policy cash rate at 4.1% for the rest of 2023 which in turn negates any potential major bullish movement of the AUD/USD. Expectations of interest rates traders were right in line with the Australian central bank, RBA’s latest monetary policy decision (no interest rate hike today) that was in contrast to the 25-basis points hike consensus from the majority of the economists surveyed. RBA has decided to hold on to its official policy cash rate at 4.1% for the second consecutive month; data from the ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures as of 31 July 2023 has indicated a patty pricing of only a 14% chance of a 25-bps hike, down significantly from a 41% chance being priced a week ago. These are the key takeaways from today’s RBA monetary policy statement; The Board has decided to hold the interest rate steady this month to access the impact of the prior rate increases and monitor the economic outlook. Risk of below-trend growth for the Australian economy due to weak household consumption growth and dwelling investment. The labour market has remained tight, with job vacancies and postings at high levels, though labour shortages have lessened. But the unemployment rate is expected to rise gradually from 3.5% to around 4.5% in late 2024. Even though wage growth has picked up due to the tight labour market and high inflation but wage growth, together with productivity growth remains consistent with the inflation target. The current growth rate of 6% inflation in Australia is still considered too high. The central forecast expects CPI inflation will decline to around 3.5% by the end of 2024 and revert to the target range of 2% to 3% by late 2025. The Board may consider further tightening of monetary policy to ensure inflation returns to the target range of 2% to 3% depending on data and evolving risk assessments.   Switched to being “data-dependent” suggests RBA may stand pat on interest rates till end of 2023 The last point as mentioned above stood up starkly, in the previous July’s monetary policy statement, it was noted as “some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, but that will depend upon how the economy and inflation evolve”. In today’s monetary policy, it has been stated as “that will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks”. Hence, this latest framing of being data-dependent, and acknowledging the implied negative adverse lagged effects of a higher interest rate environment towards economic growth (risk assessment) seems to portray that if the recent trend of key economic indicators continues their respective trajectories, it is likely the RBA may continue to remain on hold on its policy cash rate at 4.1% for the rest of 2023 while monitoring the global inflationary environment.   Lacklustre sentiment for AUD/USD     AUD/USD minor short-term trend as of 1 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)  A “data-dependent” RBA has knocked out the bullish tone of AUD/USD after a reprieve rebound seen yesterday, 31 July where the pair staged a minor rebound of 117 pips from its last Friday, 28 July intraday low of 0.6622 to an intraday high of 0.6739 during yesterday’s US session. Right now, it has shed -81 pips to print a current intraday low of 0.6657 at this time of the writing, and the Aussie is the worst performer intraday today, 1 Aug (-0.65%) among the major currencies against the US dollar; EUR (-0.03%), CHF (-0.03%), GBP (-0.07%), CAD (-0.22%), and JPY, (-0.34%). The Aussie has resumed its underperformance against the US dollar seen in the last two trading days of last week where the AUD/USD recorded an accumulated loss of -1.68% from 27 July to 28 July versus EUR/USD (-0.63%), GBP/USD (-0.71%), and JPY/USD (-0.65%) over the same period ex-post FOMC, ECB, and BoJ. From a technical analysis standpoint, short-term bearish momentum remains intact as yesterday’s rebound has failed to surpass the 200-day moving average after a re-test on it, now acting as a key short-term pivotal resistance at around 0.6740 with the next major support coming in at 0.6600/6580.    

Asia Morning Bites Asian Markets have yet to fully respond to Friday's mixed payrolls report. Indonesian 2Q23 GDP today.   Global Macro and Markets Global markets:  US equities dipped slightly on Friday after a mixed labour report that contained some hints that the US economy was slowing. The S&P 500 declined 0.53% and the NASDAQ fell 0.36%. Chinese stocks had a better end to the week. The Hang Seng rose 0.61% and the CSI 300 rose 0.39%. US Treasury yields retreated sharply on Friday. The 2Y yield dropped 11.7bp, and 10Y Treasury yields fell 14.1bp to 4.034%. The USD also softened against the EUR. EURUSD rose sharply to 1.104 intraday, before settling back to just over 1.10.  The AUD took a look above 0.66 but has also settled back to 0.6572. Cable rose to 1.2747, and the JPY dropped to 141.91. Asian FX was mostly weak against the USD on Friday but will likely recover lost ground in early trading today. The KRW and THB were the two weakest currencies on Friday. The KRW is now 1309.70. G-7 Macro: Friday’s labour report was very mixed, with the headline payroll numbers coming in a bit lower than expectations, but wages growth rising and the unemployment rate falling. James Knightley thinks this should keep the FOMC on hold at their September meeting.  Fed speakers last week gave conflicting messages. Bostic suggested that as the labour market was now slowing, the Fed did not need to hike any more  - a view that is in line with our house forecast. Bowman said that more hikes were likely. There is nothing of any note from the G-7 today. Later this week, we get July CPI inflation from the US, which could move slightly higher again from June’s 3.0% reading.  Core inflation is forecast to stay at 4.8%YoY. Indonesia:  2Q23 GDP is set for release today.  The market consensus points to a 5.0%YoY expansion for 2Q with consumption getting a lift from fading inflation.  Meanwhile, softer export growth, partly due to moderating global commodity prices likely capped growth momentum amidst slower global trade.  This would match the expansion reported in 1Q with growth on track to meet government expectations.  Bank Indonesia recently retained its growth outlook for 2023 at 4.5-5.3%YoY.   What to look out for: Fed speakers Thailand CPI inflation (7 August) Indonesia 2Q GDP (7 August) Fed’s Bowman and Bostic speak (7 August) South Korea BoP current account balance (8 August) Japan trade balance (8 August) Australia Westpac consumer confidence (8 August) China trade (8 August) Philippines trade (8 August) Taiwan trade (8 August) US trade balance (8 August) South Korea unemployment (9 August) China CPI inflation (9 August) Taiwan CPI inflation (9 August) US MBA mortgage application (9 August) Japan PPI inflation (10 August) Philippines GDP (10 August) RBI policy meeting (10 August) US initial jobless claims and CPI inflation (10 August) Singapore CPI inflation (11 August) Hong Kong GDP (11 August) US PPI inflation, University of Michigan sentiment (11 August)

China slips into deflation   By Michael Hewson (Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)   A disappointing set of China trade numbers for July saw European and US markets selloff sharply yesterday, reinforcing concerns that the Chinese economy is struggling, undermining hopes that the slowdown in Q2, was simply a one-off. If anything, the signs of a slowdown have been there for months for China, given that PPI inflation has been negative all this year, with headline CPI following it at a distance.  This morning headline CPI inflation in China followed the PPI measure into outright deflation for the first time in 28 months, increasing fears that for all the promises of further stimulus measures, Chinese authorities may be facing limitations in the type of stimulus they can implement when it comes to kick starting domestic demand.     CPI inflation fell from 0.2% in June to -0.3% in July, while PPI came in at -4.4%, the 10th month in a row that prices have been negative. Chinese deflation has been the proverbial elephant in the room when it comes to recent tightening measures from the Federal Reserve, the ECB, and Bank of England. How many more rate hikes can we expect in the coming months when there is a clear deflationary impulse coming from Asia, and where is the tipping point when it comes to the risk of overtightening. With recent rebounds in oil prices prompting a rebound in gasoline/petrol prices, along with the clear lags when it comes to the effects of previous rate hikes, does the risk of overtightening outweigh the risks of signalling a pause, and waiting to see the effects of previous rate hikes on consumers as fixed rates roll off.     Tomorrow's US CPI, and Friday's PPI numbers could go some way to answering this question, however it is becoming clearer that central banks are leaning more towards pausing in September, which means we could well have seen the end of the rate hiking cycle for all three, the Federal Reserve, ECB, and Bank of England. Tighter credit conditions for banks were also behind yesterday's sell-off after Italy unexpectedly slapped its banking sector with a 40% windfall tax on its profits for this year. This raised concerns that other European countries like Germany, France and Spain may follow suit.     UK banks also fell back although the prospect of a UK tax is lower given that the banking sector here already pays a higher rate due to the 3% banking levy, on top of the 25% corporation tax rate, although there have been some misguided calls for the UK government to follow suit in a similar fashion to the energy profits levy on energy companies. That would be unwise given it could prompt banks to cut back on lending, and in turn become more risk averse which in turn could impact profits growth, as well as cutting credit into the real economy.       EUR/USD – having failed to consolidate its move above 1.1000 the euro has slipped back with the lows last week just above 1.0900, a key support. We currently have resistance at the 1.1050 area which we need to break to have any chance of revisiting the July peaks at 1.1150.     GBP/USD – gave up its Monday gains having failed to move above the 1.2800 area, however while above the lows last week at 1.2620 area the bias remains higher. We need to see a move back above the 1.2800 area to ensure this rally has legs. Below 1.2600 targets 1.2400. Resistance at the 1.2830 area as well as 1.3000.         EUR/GBP – continues to struggle near the 0.8650 area but we need to see a move below the 0.8580 area to signal a short-term top might be in and see a return to the 0.8530 area. Also have resistance at the 100-day SMA at 0.8680.     USD/JPY – looks set for a retest of the 144.00 area having rebounded from the 141.50 area. While below the 144.00 area the risk is for a move towards the 140.70 area. Main resistance remains at the previous peaks at 145.00.     FTSE100 is expected to open 32 points higher at 7,559     DAX is expected to open 88 points higher at 15,863     CAC40 is expected to open 63 points higher at 7,322  

Asia Morning Bites Chinese stocks weather the latest US investment ban. Chinese lending data today and 2Q23 GDP from the Philippines.   Global Macro and Markets Global markets:  It was another day of slight falls for US stocks on Wednesday, though things could have gone either way until late trading when there was a final dip lower. The S&P 500 fell 0.7% while the NASDAQ fell 1.17%. Chinese stocks were mixed, which isn’t a bad result considering the inflation data which turned negative, and the new US ban on investment in Chinese technology. The Hang Seng fell 0.32%, while the CSI 300 fell 0.31%. US treasury bond yields were also mixed on Wednesday, the 2Y yield rose 5.7bp to 4.808%, though the 10Y yield fell 1.4bp to 4.008% after a good auction.  EURUSD recovered a little ground, rising to 1.0976, but failed to make it above 1.10. The AUD and GBP were both fairly flat relative to the previous day, though the JPY saw further losses, rising to 143.657. Asian FX was fairly rangebound yesterday too, with most registering small gains of less than a quarter of a percent. G-7 macro:  US CPI inflation data for July is due today, and we are likely to see something we haven’t seen for some time, namely, annual inflation rising. The good news is that this is mainly due to base effects, and the month-on-month gain in the CPI index is expected to be modest at 0.2%, which is broadly in line with the Fed’s target. The bad news is that this indicates that the going will be a lot heavier for inflation from now on, without those nice helpful base effects that dominated the second quarter. Core inflation is expected to drop only 0.1pp to 4.7%. China: Aggregate finance data is released today. New CNY loans are forecast to rise by CNY780bn, which puts it slightly ahead of last year’s CNY678bn figure. Given the recent disappointing macro data, there might be some downward surprises here, though loans have been one of the stronger parts of China’s data in recent months.   Philippines:  2Q GDP is set for release today.  Market consensus is at 6.0%YoY, a slowdown from the 6.4% reported in 1Q.  Elevated prices likely capped household spending while capital formation also probably slowed due to the lagged impact of previous monetary tightening. Government officials are targeting full-year growth of 6-7%YoY, although given various headwinds, we feel that growth may be headed for a slowdown for the rest of the year.  What to look out for: US inflation Philippines GDP (10 August) RBI policy meeting (10 August) US initial jobless claims and CPI inflation (10 August) Singapore CPI inflation (11 August) Hong Kong GDP (11 August) US PPI inflation, University of Michigan sentiment (11 August)

UK wages surge to a new record high in June   By Michael Hewson (Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)   There was always the likelihood that today's unemployment and wages numbers would give the Bank of England a headache when it comes to deciding what to do when it comes to further rate increases, and this morning's numbers have not just given the central bank a headache, but a migraine.   Not only has the unemployment rate jumped to its highest level since October 2021 at 4.2%, but wages growth surged in June, while the May numbers were also revised higher.   Average weekly earnings for the 3-months to June rose to a record 7.8%, while May was revised up to 7.5%, while including bonuses wages rose by 8.2%, in the process pushing well above core CPI inflation. This move to 8.2% was primarily due to NHS bonus one-off payments made in June, which is unlikely to be repeated.   The rise in wage growth saw public sector pay rise by 6.2%, while private sector wages rose 8.2% for the 3-months to June.   Inevitably this will increase the pressure on the Bank of England to raise rates again at its September meeting by another 25bps, even as headline CPI for July is expected to slow sharply below 7% in numbers released tomorrow.   On the broader employment picture there was a 97k increase in hiring during July as payrolled employees increased. On the overall UK employment rate, this fell back to 75.7%, and is still 0.8% below its pre-pandemic peak, with the economic activity rate also falling slightly to 20.9% on the quarter. Total hours work also declined.   While many people will decry the strength of these numbers and warn of the risk of wage/price spiral they rather miss the point that consumer incomes have been squeezed for months, with the gap finally narrowing, and now starting to work in consumer's favour.         Source: Bloomberg  This trend is likely to continue in the coming months as wage growth starts to slow and falling CPI starts to find a base, offering consumers some relief from the squeeze of the last 18 months.   It's also important to remember that wage price gap leading up the end of 2021, was very much in the consumers favour, however this comparison also comes with several caveats due to furlough payments and other support structures which skewed the numbers.   While today's wages data will undoubtedly grab all the headlines, there are growing signs of weakness in the labour market which may offer the Bank of England pause, and with another 2 CPI reports, one tomorrow, as well as another labour market survey before the next meeting, it doesn't mean that we can expect to see multiple rate hikes in the coming months. While the pressure on the Bank of England to hike in September has undoubtedly risen and is fully priced for September it doesn't necessarily mean we'll see more rate hikes after that. Trends are important and the Bank of England needs to think about that before it raises rates further, and inflation is trending lower. UK 2-year gilts have edged higher and back above 5.1%   The Bank of England needs to remember that they've already raised rates 14 times in the last few months and there is still a lot more tightening that has yet to kick in. On this data another rate hike does seem likely but when you look at the graph above perhaps there's a case for a pause in September given the direction of that graph above. What today's data does mean beyond little doubt is that rates will need to stay at current levels for longer. More rate hikes aren't necessarily the solution to every problem. Just because every problem is a nail, doesn't mean you need a hammer. Just leave rates where they are for longer.   Consumers are already struggling and although we've seen Marks & Spencer update its full year forecasts for profits this morning, the upgrade has come against a backdrop of a strong performance in its food business, which saw like-for-like sales rise 11%.   Clothing and home sales saw like for like sales rise by 6%, with M&S warning that a tightening consumer market could act as a headwind into the year end. Tellingly, management upgraded their outlook to show profit growth in fiscal 2022-23.  

  UK wages surge to a new record high in June   By Michael Hewson (Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)   There was always the likelihood that today's unemployment and wages numbers would give the Bank of England a headache when it comes to deciding what to do when it comes to further rate increases, and this morning's numbers have not just given the central bank a headache, but a migraine.   Not only has the unemployment rate jumped to its highest level since October 2021 at 4.2%, but wages growth surged in June, while the May numbers were also revised higher.   Average weekly earnings for the 3-months to June rose to a record 7.8%, while May was revised up to 7.5%, while including bonuses wages rose by 8.2%, in the process pushing well above core CPI inflation. This move to 8.2% was primarily due to NHS bonus one-off payments made in June, which is unlikely to be repeated.   The rise in wage growth saw public sector pay rise by 6.2%, while private sector wages rose 8.2% for the 3-months to June.   Inevitably this will increase the pressure on the Bank of England to raise rates again at its September meeting by another 25bps, even as headline CPI for July is expected to slow sharply below 7% in numbers released tomorrow.   On the broader employment picture there was a 97k increase in hiring during July as payrolled employees increased. On the overall UK employment rate, this fell back to 75.7%, and is still 0.8% below its pre-pandemic peak, with the economic activity rate also falling slightly to 20.9% on the quarter. Total hours work also declined.   While many people will decry the strength of these numbers and warn of the risk of wage/price spiral they rather miss the point that consumer incomes have been squeezed for months, with the gap finally narrowing, and now starting to work in consumer's favour.         Source: Bloomberg   This trend is likely to continue in the coming months as wage growth starts to slow and falling CPI starts to find a base, offering consumers some relief from the squeeze of the last 18 months.   It's also important to remember that wage price gap leading up the end of 2021, was very much in the consumers favour, however this comparison also comes with several caveats due to furlough payments and other support structures which skewed the numbers.   While today's wages data will undoubtedly grab all the headlines, there are growing signs of weakness in the labour market which may offer the Bank of England pause, and with another 2 CPI reports, one tomorrow, as well as another labour market survey before the next meeting, it doesn't mean that we can expect to see multiple rate hikes in the coming months. While the pressure on the Bank of England to hike in September has undoubtedly risen and is fully priced for September it doesn't necessarily mean we'll see more rate hikes after that. Trends are important and the Bank of England needs to think about that before it raises rates further, and inflation is trending lower. UK 2-year gilts have edged higher and back above 5.1%   The Bank of England needs to remember that they've already raised rates 14 times in the last few months and there is still a lot more tightening that has yet to kick in. On this data another rate hike does seem likely but when you look at the graph above perhaps there's a case for a pause in September given the direction of that graph above. What today's data does mean beyond little doubt is that rates will need to stay at current levels for longer. More rate hikes aren't necessarily the solution to every problem. Just because every problem is a nail, doesn't mean you need a hammer. Just leave rates where they are for longer.   Consumers are already struggling and although we've seen Marks & Spencer update its full year forecasts for profits this morning, the upgrade has come against a backdrop of a strong performance in its food business, which saw like-for-like sales rise 11%.   Clothing and home sales saw like for like sales rise by 6%, with M&S warning that a tightening consumer market could act as a headwind into the year end. Tellingly, management upgraded their outlook to show profit growth in fiscal 2022-23.    

AUD: Lower inflation doesn't hurts Aussie dollar The Aussie dollar dropped temporarily to 0.6450 before rapidly rebounding after monthly inflation figures surprised on the downside overnight. CPI inflation for the month of July came in at 4.9%, a decline from 5.4% and below the consensus of 5.2%. As discussed by our colleagues here, this means our call for one last RBA hike in the fourth quarter now hangs by a thread, given how much weight policymakers have been putting on the monthly inflation figures of late. We are still not convinced the path for disinflation will be a smooth one, though, since base effects have been doing a lot of the heavy lifting in bringing inflation lower in the past months. At this point, labour market data become more relevant. Should we see another soft read, the chances of one last rate hike by the RBA would become extremely slim. From an FX perspective, we are not surprised to see the AUD trading higher despite the softer inflation figures. We have been highlighting how AUD/USD was embedding a good deal of negatives related to Australia’s exposure to China, and market expectations for RBA tightening were very limited even before today’s CPI release. We like the chances of an AUD/USD rebound from these levels.

Asia week ahead: Reserve Bank of Australia to decide on rates Next week's data calendar features a rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia, plus we'll get August inflation readings from the region.   RBA to continue rate pause The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will meet next week to decide if the current rate pause will continue. July’s CPI came in at 4.9% year-on-year, lower than June’s 5.4% and below the survey consensus of 5.2%. This is the lowest pace of inflation since it peaked last December at 8.4%. On top of cooling price growth, the latest unemployment rate also increased from 3.5% in June to 3.7% in July. As such, we expect the RBA to hold rates while looking for more signs that inflation is under control.   Caixin Services PMI to show slower expansion Caixin will release its service PMI for China next Tuesday. Taking our cues from the official non-manufacturing PMI released earlier this week, we should see a slower expansion of the service sector with the PMI falling to around 53.8.   Trade data in the region remain weak China’s imports and exports faced an unexpected plunge last month, with imports falling to 12.4% YoY and exports falling to 14.5% YoY. Both figures are lower than the consensus forecast. For the export side, weakness in global demand is likely to continue to weigh heavily. For imports, domestic demand has not shown any meaningful signs of improvement, so they are also likely to remain weak. Taiwan’s trade data might show some signs that the semiconductor cycle is troughing. Taiwan’s exports fell less than expected last month and we expect this slight improvement to carry on. For the Philippines, trade data will also be reported with exports posting another month of modest gains, but the overall trade balance will still likely settle at -$3.7bn.   High energy prices to affect region's CPI inflation Taiwan’s CPI inflation rate has been below the target range of 2% for two consecutive months, with the July inflation rate at 1.88% and core inflation at 2.73%. August inflation is likely to remain subdued, helped by high ongoing base effects for energy and food prices. Meanwhile, inflation in South Korea is facing upward pressure once again after falling to 2.3% last month. It is expected to rise to 2.6% in August with the main contributors being rises in transportation fees, pump prices and fresh food prices. The first two are associated with strong oil prices after recent supply cuts from OPEC+, while fresh food prices have been affected by Typhoon Khaun destroying agriculture yields. Lastly, Philippine inflation could pick up to 5.0% YoY from 4.7% in July. The recent uptick in energy and rice prices could offset slower inflation for select food items.   Singapore retail sales to extend gains The sustained increase in visitor arrivals to Singapore appears to be helping to support retail sales, in particular department store sales and services related to tourism activities. We expect retail sales to post a modest 2.0% YoY gain for the month.   Key events next week

Economic activity in the first half of the year has been disappointing across Central and Eastern Europe, leading us to expect a gloomier full-year outlook. Despite this synchronised bottoming, we see a divergence in economic policy responses, driven by country-specific challenges. Poland: A weak third quarter so far The Polish economy started the third quarter on a soft note. All real economy figures for July underperformed, showing generally lacklustre domestic demand, while global conditions remain unfavourable. This indicates that the recovery will be slow and more visible in the fourth quarter than in the third. This suggests downside risks to our 2023 GDP forecast of 1%. CPI inflation in July came in at 10.8% year-on-year (down from 11.5% YoY in June), largely owing to food (-0.6pp) and energy (-0.2pp) prices. Core inflation receded as well to 10.6%, but subtracted only 0.2pp from CPI. Compared to the CPI peak in February, CPI has already slowed by nearly 8pp, mainly due to fading external supply shocks. We estimate CPI will dip near 10% YoY in August, but not lower. It should decisively reach single digits in September and hover around 7% by the year-end. We expect the Monetary Policy Council to start its easing cycle in September, even without meeting the governor's guidance on CPI reaching single digits. The recent real economy data proved lacklustre, i.e. the second quarter GDP print of -0.5% YoY came in below the July National Bank of Poland projection (-0.1% YoY), and the outlook for the second half of the year is also subject to downside risks. At the same time, inflation is on a clear path to reach single-digit levels later in the second half of the year. Still, recent MPC statements do not indicate the Council is willing to cut rates by more than 25bp at a single meeting. Consequently, we look for two or three 25bp cuts in 2023. €/PLN remains range-bound against the euro and it’s unlikely to change prior to the mid-October general elections. The zloty remains supported by the trade surplus and presumably Ministry of Finance activity, which offsets rather unsupportive emerging market sentiment. The zloty may ease after the elections, as opinion polls suggest that the political set-up may prevent prompt access to the Recovery Fund. Moreover, we see domestic demand recovering gradually in the second half, which should trim Poland’s trade surplus, given limited external demand. We expect further Polish government bond curve steepening. The 2024 budget draft presents a strong rise (by 55%) in net borrowing needs (to PLN225bn vs. PLN143bn in 2023), while local banks may cover one-third of it in 2024 vs. two-thirds in 2023, and the Ministry of Finance should rely strongly on foreign demand. Also, core market developments are generally unsupportive for the local long end, while domestic data should maintain, or even strengthen, market views on central bank easing.  

National Bank of Poland meeting preview We look for a 25 basis point rate cut at the 6 September meeting and for rates to be cut by 75 basis points in total by the end of 2023.   The first Monetary Policy Council (MPC) meeting in Poland after the summer break (decision on 6 September, with the governor's press conference the day after) is going to be an interesting one as we expect the National Bank of Poland (NBP) rates easing cycle to begin. In his recent speeches, NBP Governor Glapiński set two preconditions for rate cuts: (1) CPI inflation to decline to single-digit levels and (2) a clear downward path of inflation in the months ahead. According to the flash estimate inflation remained in double-digit territory in August (10.1% year-on-year). Nevertheless, we believe the MPC will cut the NBP rates by 25bp in September, starting the easing cycle that could bring main rates down by 75bp by the end of this year. Inflation is moderating faster than envisaged in the July NBP staff projection and should be around 9% YoY already in September. At the same time, the second quarter GDP print was lower than expected by the NBP and the outlook for the second half of the year looks softer than expected from earlier. We expect a 25bp rate cut in September and in total 75bp in 2023 and the easing cycle may be continued into 2024.

US The month started with a bang with the US jobs report but the following week is looking a little more subdued, starting with the bank holiday on Monday. Economic data is largely made up of revisions and tier-three releases. The exceptions being the ISM services PMI on Wednesday and jobless claims on Thursday. That said, revised productivity and unit labor costs on Thursday will also attract attention given the Fed’s obsession with input cost, wages in particular. We’ll also hear from a variety of Fed policymakers including Susan Collins on Wednesday (Beige Book also released), Patrick Harker, John Williams, and Raphael Bostic on Thursday, and Bostic again on Friday.  Eurozone Next week is littered with tier-three events despite the large number of releases in that time. Final inflation, GDP and PMIs, regional retail sales figures and surveys, and trade figures make up the bulk of next week’s reports. Not inconsequential, per se, but not typically big market events unless the PMI and CPI reports bring massive revisions. We will hear from some ECB policymakers earlier in the week which will probably be the highlight, including Christine Lagarde, Fabio Panetta, Philip Lane, and Isabel Schnabel. UK  Next week offers very little on the data front but the Monetary Policy Report Hearing in front of the Treasury Select Committee on Wednesday is usually one to watch. While the committee’s views are typically quite polished by that point, the questioning is intense and can provide a more in-depth understanding of where the MPC stands on interest rates.  Russia Inflation in Russia is on the rise again and is expected to hit 5.1% on an annual basis in August, up from 4.3% in July. That is why the CBR has started raising rates aggressively again – raised to 12% from 8.5% on 15 August. Even so, the ruble is not performing well and isn’t too far from the August highs just before the superhike. We’ll hear from Deputy Governor Zabotkin on Tuesday, a few days before the CPI release. South Africa Further signs of disinflation in the PPI figures on Thursday will have been welcomed by the SARB but they won’t yet be declaring the job done despite the substantial progress to date. The focus next week will be on GDP figures on Tuesday, with 0.2% quarterly growth expected, and 1.3% annual. The whole economy PMI will be released earlier the same day. Turkey CPI inflation figures will be eyed next week, with annual price growth seen hitting 55.9%, up from 47.8% in July. The CBRT is all too aware of the risks, hence the surprisingly large rate hike – from 17.5% to 25% – last month. The currency rebounded strongly after the decision but it has been drifting lower since, falling back near the pre-meeting levels. There’s more work to be done. Switzerland Another relatively quiet week for the Swiss, with GDP on Monday – seen posting a modest 0.1% quarterly growth – and unemployment on Thursday, which is expected to remain unchanged. Neither is likely to sway the SNB when it comes to its next meeting on 21 September, with markets now favoring no change and a 30% chance of a 25 basis point hike. China Two key data to focus on for the coming week; the non-government compiled Caixin Services PMI for August out on Tuesday which is expected at 54, almost unchanged from July’s reading of 54.1. If it turns out as expected, it will mark the eighth consecutive month of expansion in China’s services sector which indicates resilience despite the recent spate of deflationary pressures and contagion risk from the fallout of major indebted property developers that failed to make timely coupon payments on their respective bonds obligations. Next up will be the balance of trade data for August on Thursday with export growth anticipated to decline at a slower pace of 10% y/y from -14.5% y/y recorded in July. Imports are expected to contract further by 11% y/y from -12.4% y/y in July.   Interestingly, several key leading economic data announced last week have indicated the recent doldrums in China will start to stabilize and potentially turn a corner. The NBS manufacturing PMI for August came in better than expected at 49.7 (consensus 49.4), and above July’s reading of 49.3 which makes it three consecutive months of improvement, albeit still in contraction.   In addition, two sub-components of August’s NBS manufacturing PMI; new orders and production are now in expansionary mode with both rising to hit their highest level since March 2023 at 50.2 and 51.9 respectively. Also, the Caixin manufacturing PMI for August has painted a more vibrant picture with a move back into expansion at 51 from 49.2 in July, and above the consensus of 49.3; its strongest pace of growth since February 2023. Hence, it seems that the current piecemeal fiscal stimulus measures have started to trickle down positively into China’s economy. India The services PMI for August will be released on Tuesday where the consensus is expecting a slight dip in expansion to 61 from 62.3 in July, its highest growth in over 13 years. Capping off the week will be August’s bank loan growth out on Friday. Australia The all-important RBA monetary policy decision will be released on Tuesday. A third consecutive month of no change in the policy cash rate is expected, at 4.1%, as the recently released monthly CPI indicator has slowed to 4.9% y/y from 5.4% y/y, its slowest pace of increase since February 2022 and below consensus of 5.2% y/y. Interestingly, the ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures on the September 2023 contract have indicated a 14% chance of a 25-basis point cut on the cash rate to 3.85% for this coming Tuesday’s RBA meeting based on data as of 31 August 2023. That’s a slight increase in odds from a 12% chance of a 25-bps rate cut inferred a week ago. On Wednesday, Q2 GDP growth will be out where consensus is expecting it to come in at 1.7% y/y, a growth slowdown from 2.3% y/y recorded in Q1. To wrap up the week, the balance of trade for July will be out on Thursday where the consensus is expecting the trade surplus to narrow to A$10.5 billion from a three-month high of A$11.32 billion recorded in June.  New Zealand Two data to watch, Q2 terms of trade on Monday and the global dairy trade price index on Tuesday. Japan A quiet week ahead with the preliminary leading economic index out on Thursday and the finalized Q2 GDP to be released on Friday. The preliminary figure indicated growth of 6% on an annualized basis that surpassed Q1’s GDP of 3.7% and consensus expectations of 3.1%; its steepest pace of increase since Q4 2020 and a third consecutive quarter of annualized economic expansion. Singapore Retail sales for July will be out on Tuesday with another month of lackluster growth expected at 0.9% y/y from 1.1% y/y in June; its softest growth since July 2021 as the Singapore economy grappled with a weak external environment. On a monthly basis, a slower pace of contraction is expected for July at -0.1% m/m versus -0.8% m/m in June.  

Next week is rather quiet, with only a few countries in the region releasing major data reports. China will be in the spotlight with several data releases, followed by India’s inflation number, Australia’s employment survey and Indonesia’s trade data. China data dump: M2, industrial production, retail sales, aggregate financing China will release a huge batch of data next week, the highlights of which will be industrial production and retail sales figures for August. Taking cues from the PMIs released recently, we could see a moderate improvement in industrial production at 4.8% year-on-year (from 3.7% in July). For retail sales, as it is approaching the end of the summer holiday season, we could see slower growth of 2.8% (from 2.5% in July).   India: CPI inflation India’s inflation is likely to come down as prices of tomatoes have fallen by more than 50% month-on-month. However, the price of another crucial food staple – onions – shot up by more than 20% MoM. The net result of this is that the CPI inflation rate for August should slow to 6.7% year-on-year (from 7.44% in July) – still above the top of the RBI’s upper inflation target.     Australia: employment change, unemployment rate Australia will release its labour report for August next week. We expect a partial reversal of the full-time job losses recorded last month, and some decline in the part-time jobs reading, resulting in a 15K increase in total employment. A similar partial reversal of last month’s unemployment surge, coupled with ongoing increases in the labour force, could see the unemployment rate dip back down to 3.6% after last month’s 3.7% print.   Indonesia: trade data Exports and imports will remain in contraction for Indonesia while the overall trade surplus should improve slightly for August. Exports could fall by 17.3%YoY while imports could fall by 12.8%YoY. Resurgent global energy prices could impact both exports and imports with the overall trade balance registering at $3.6bn. The trade balance could provide some support for the Indonesian rupiah which has been under pressure of late.   Key events next week

Economic data, news & events ■ UK: Monthly GDP contracted by 0.5% mom in July, reversing the rise of 0.5% in the prior month. The main downward contribution came from services, where output fell 0.5% mom in July. Within services, the largest downward contribution came from healthcare activity, where industrial action increased. But there were also falls in industrial production and construction in July. Monthly GDP has been particularly volatile recently due to: 1. an additional bank holiday in May; 2. exceptionally warm weather in June, which boosted hospitality, tourism and construction; and 3. Industrial strike action. Looking instead at the less volatile 3M/3M growth rate, GDP rose 0.2% in July, unchanged from June. We continue to expect the economy to enter a recession around the turn of the year. ■ EU: Today, European Commission President von der Leyen will deliver her speech on the State of the Union 2023 during the European Parliament plenary session in Strasbourg. She is expected to outline the main priorities and flagship initiatives for the year to come, based on the EU’s achievements of the past years (9:00 CET). ■ Eurozone: We forecast a 0.7% mom decline in industrial output for July, following a contraction of 1% qoq in 2Q23. The expected contraction will have come about in a difficult environment for the industrial sector, which faces weak global demand for goods and fading support from backlogs of orders. The latest surveys of industrial activity do not point to a turnaround any time soon. The manufacturing PMI and its gauges of output and new orders remain stuck far below the expansion threshold (11:00 CET). ■ US: Headline monthly CPI inflation likely jumped to 0.6% mom in August, from 0.2% mom in July. In yearly terms, CPI inflation likely rose to 3.6%, from 3.2%. Such an acceleration was likely entirely driven by energy prices, as we estimate that gasoline prices rose by around 10% mom in seasonally adjusted terms and utility (piped) gas prices probably followed wholesale prices higher. Core inflation, on the other hand, is likely to come in at 0.2% mom for a third consecutive month, taking the yoy rate down to 4.4% from 4.7% in the prior month. We expect the disinflation process continued in housing, while inflation for core-goods and for non-housing core services (referred to as supercore) likely continued to moderate (14:30 CET).

EGB curves bear-flattened yesterday, with investors adjusting their positions ahead of upcoming macro events. Gilts were the stars of the day, with their yields declining after July jobs data confirmed a softening of the labor market, while USTs were little changed. European stocks edged moderately lower. Brent rose by 1.5% to USD 92/bbl   Caution has prevailed overnight, as highlighted by the weak performance of Asian stocks as well as US and European stock futures. While USTs are little changed, Bund futures have edged lower following a Reuters report that the ECB might raise its inflation projection for next year to above 3%. EGBs are set to open the trading session under pressure. In FX, EUR-USD has risen towards the 1.0750 area and USD-JPY has reached 147.40. EGB issuance activity will be quite lively today, with Italy, Germany and Portugal selling a total of EUR 13bn. Focus will be on the new 7Y BTP, the fourth and last new benchmark to be issued by Italy in 3Q23. With respect to the macro data, investor focus will be on US CPI data. The inflation report precedes the FOMC meeting by a week and will probably affect the Fed’s decision and, to a lesser extent, the updated economic projections that will be published next Wednesday. August CPI data are expected to show a mixed picture, with headline inflation likely having increased due to higher energy prices (in August, the average oil price was 6% higher than in July), while core inflation probably softened further. If data come in line with our estimates and consensus, the impact on fixed-income securities will probably be negligible as there seems to be consensus among analysts. Although market-based inflation expectations have already risen due to higher energy prices, especially at shorter tenors, their increase has been limited and breakeven rates have remained within the trading ranges of the last three months. Since 10 August, when July CPI data were published, the 10Y UST yield has risen by 20bp, with the real yield component, now close to 2%, contributing almost 100%. This move shows that inflation expectations remain anchored and that the re-acceleration of headline inflation in August is not seen as a major concern for investors or the Fed. On the other hand, the fresh increase in real yields seems to suggest that investors are continuing to reduce their expectations of a recession in the US and a rapid shift towards a looser monetary policy by the Fed. We see credit starting on a more cautious tone today ahead of the release of US CPI data in the afternoon and higher oil prices are weighing on equity markets. The sentiment on the Swedish residential property market declined again in September with more respondents in the monthly SBAB house price survey now seeing prices falling. The market expectation of a further rate hike by the Swedish central bank indicates expectations that further rising borrowing costs and inflation will lead to accommodation becoming less affordable. Swedish residential property prices are around 10% below their peak in March 2022 and market commentators see overall price declines of 20% as possible. For Swedish banks we see a further decline as still manageable given that average LTVs are in the 50-60% rang   Today and tomorrow are set to be two crucial days for the FX market US CPI inflation for August is the key release early this afternoon, but the USD reaction might prove to be complicated. This is because the US data will likely be mixed. We expect a rise in the headline index and a further decline in the core rate. This might spark some USD swings when the data are published but FX majors will probably end today’s session not far from current levels, given the ECB decision tomorrow. For there to be a more directional reaction, both headline and core inflation would have to surprise to the upside or the downside. Since a steady FOMC meeting outcome on 20 September is highly likely at this point, we expect the market reaction to be asymmetric and think that softer-than-expected data (even in the headline component) are unlikely to dent the current USD strength too much. On the other hand, an unexpected and sharp acceleration in the core index is probably needed to force investors to return to pricing in a higher chance of another rate hike in the US next week, which would drive the dollar index (DXY) back towards the recent peak of 105.15. In our view, EUR-USD is set to remain close to 1.0750, after press report suggesting that the ECB expects inflation to remain above 3% next year. Recent lows of around 1.0690 and 1.0770-1.08 are thus the key levels to monitor. Meanwhile, bad economic data in the UK early this morning will likely keep GBP-USD below 1.25. The return of USDJPY to 147 makes it clear that the debate on policy normalization in Japan is not enough to convince investors to ride a yen recovery, while USD-CNY and USD-CNH are likely to remain below 7.30 amid higher funding costs in the offshore market. Early tomorrow morning the decline that we expect in both headline and core inflation data in Sweden is unlikely to prevent another 25bp rate hike by the Riksbank next week. Still, the data will probably weigh somewhat on the SEK at the start of the European session. The PLN looks set to continue to suffer from the NBP’s bold rate cut last week. The HUF will likely trade close to 385 against the EUR after Hungarian Economic Development Minister Nagy hinted at stagnant growth for Hungary this year, while the NBH confirmed that the base rate (now 13%) will replace the 1D depo rate (now 14%) from 1 October. Lastly, the RUB steadying around 95 against the USD further suggests a steady outcome to the CBR meeting on Friday.

Asia Morning Bites Australia's August CPI inflation report should show inflation rising again. The fall in Chinese industrial profits may be moderating.   Global Macro and Markets Global markets:  For a change, US Treasury yields didn’t rise yesterday. Nor did they fall particularly. The yield on the 2Y UST was down just 0.4bp to 5.121%, while that on the 10Y bond rose just 0.2bp to leave it at 4.536%. This was despite Neel Kashkari, a voter on the FOMC this year, saying that he thought even a soft-landing scenario would probably require one more rate hike this year. Michelle Bowman talked about the need to cool the economy to bring rents down in line with wage growth, though she did not explicitly outline a path for rates. But she implied more was needed. With this, it feels as if markets are listening and choosing to believe that in the end, the Fed will not carry through on their threats to raise rates again, either because the threat lacks credibility, or because they believe that the growth and inflation evidence will turn sufficiently to make it unnecessary. It’s a tough call to make and leaves upside as well as downside risk. Kashkari and Bowman are both due to speak again today. US Stocks cooled on Tuesday. The S&P 500 dropped 1.47% while the NASDAQ fell 1.57%. Equity futures are looking mildly positive. It was also another off-day for Chinese stocks. The Hang Seng fell 1.48%, while the CSI 300 fell 0.58%.   The risk-off sentiment may be helping the USD, which has pushed even lower overnight, dropping to 1.0570. The AUD has declined below the 64 cent level, though may get a boost from CPI inflation data later on today. Cable has dropped to 1.2148, and the JPY has risen to 149.07, a level at which you have to think there could be some more verbal intervention (Finance Minister Suzuki has already waded in) and close to a level where physical intervention may occur. The CNY has held roughly level at 7.3112, though the rest of the Asia pack was weaker against the USD. The KRW and THB, together with the IDR were the weakest currencies in the region yesterday. G-7 macro:  US new home sales fell a little more than expected in August, dropping 8.7% MoM to a 675K annual pace. The Conference Board consumer confidence index was down slightly, breaking down into a slightly stronger present situation response, but a sharply weaker expectations survey. Germany also releases consumer confidence figures from GfK today. The only US data of note is the August durable goods orders and shipments figures.   Australia: A combination of base effects wearing off, and higher gasoline and food prices will take Australia’s monthly inflation rate for August back up again after the surprising decline in July. The inflation rate should push back from the July 4.9% YoY rate to a little over 5%. The consensus estimate sits at 5.2%, which is not far from our estimate of 5.1%. While this does not immediately threaten the market’s view that the RBA has peaked in its rate cycle, a few more results like this, plus some economic resilience may spur thoughts that there is still one more hike to come. We certainly are not ruling another hike out.   China: Industrial profits figures for August are released this morning. The year-on-year decline in this series has been moderating, and we expect this to continue, though probably still leaving profits down from a year ago.   What to look out for: Australia inflation Australia CPI inflation (27 September) China industrial profits (27 September) Japan machine tool orders (27 September) US durable goods orders and MBA mortgage applications (27 September) Australia retail sales (28 September) US initial jobless claims, personal consumption, pending home sales (28 September) Fed's Powell, Goolsbee and Barkin speak (29 September) Japan Tokyo CPI inflation and labor report (29 September) Thailand trade (29 September) US University of Michigan sentiment, personal spending (29 September)

National Bank of Poland set to cut rates in November followed by a pause The first Monetary Policy Council policy decision in the aftermath of general elections should bring further policy easing, but the NBP is likely to be more cautious than before given previous guidance on limited space for further easing. According to the flash estimate, CPI inflation moderated further in October and turned out slightly lower than expected by the markets. In such an environment the policy choice is between holding rates flat and a 25bp cut (to 5.50%) we find as a baseline scenario. The central bank will also release the new macroeconomic projections, which should also bring important policy guidance. Overall, it should point to an economic recovery in 2024, with consumption playing the predominant role. At the same time the inflation path should be adjusted downwards, given the lower starting point, but again it would point at CPI returning to the target of 2.5% (+/- 1 percentage point) in 2025 only. We will also see if a 2026 projection will be added, as this may also bring multiple hints about the next decisions. National Bank of Poland Governor Glapiński's press conference will be closely followed by the markets as it may give some hints on the central bank policy bias ahead. The Council is broadly expected to take a pause in December as rate setters usually avoid making any decisions in the last month of the year unless there is a pressing urgency for policy actions and we do not see it to be the case this year. The pause may be extended into the following months as the Monetary Policy Council will want to see the impact of administrative and political decisions. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the 0% VAT on food, regulated prices of electricity and gas, policy measures to trim a jump in energy costs and its impact on inflation at the beginning of the year. We do not rule out that the Council may refrain from any policy moves until the March NBP staff projection, in order to get a clearer picture of inflation prospects. The fiscal outlook also gives arguments for a more cautious approach with respect to policy easing. The 2024 draft budget prepared by the incumbent Law and Justice (PiS) government had already envisaged a sizable fiscal gap (close to 5% of GDP and 6% of GDP borrowing needs). The new coalition government by the former opposition (Civic Coalition, Third Way, New Left) is likely to pursue delivering on some of its fiscal pledges from campaign, driving the 2024 fiscal deficit towards 5.5-6.0% of GDP and borrowing needs to 7% of GDP).

Next week features China's usual data deluge plus GDP, India's trade data and Australia's unemployment rate. Meanwhile, Japan reports CPI inflation and Bank Indonesia decides on policy China data deluge plus latest GDP report The monthly deluge is accompanied by GDP data for December and the fourth quarter of 2023 this month. We believe that the seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth rate was similar in the fourth quarter to the third last year, at about 1.3%. We think that this will result in a slight uptick in GDP growth to 5.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, and also 5.2% for the full-year figure – slightly in excess of the government’s 5.0% target. Box ticked. For the rest of the data, we expect no improvement in any of the real estate-related data, though it will be interesting to see whether any of the recent increases in lending volumes of the MLF have any impact at all on infrastructure spending. We may see some very small further improvements in manufacturing and industrial production growth. The key area to look out for remains the retail spending figures, which have been a pocket of relative resilience – although they have been punching a little bit above their longer-run trend growth in recent months and may not be able to sustain this for long. Unemployment figures from Australia While the market seems to have decided that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has finished hiking and were given an encouraging nod by the recent inflation data, the fact is that monthly inflation increases are not yet low enough for the central bank to hit its inflation target on a 12-month timeframe, and it will need to slow further. For that to look more probable, it would certainly help if indicators such as employment growth slowed. In November, employment surged, and most of the jobs that were created were full-time. Both the strength of the full-time numbers and the weakness of the part-time figures were at odds with their recent trends. We would not be surprised to see a reversal with about 30,000 part-time jobs, but a dip to only 10,000 full-time jobs for a full employment change of +40,000. Unemployment may push up by about 20,000, and though this will remain slower than trend labour force growth, we may see the unemployment rate push up to 4.0%. India's trade report Trade data for December is not likely to diverge substantially from the November figures, which delivered a trade deficit of USD 20.6bn. With the Reserve Bank of India de-facto pegging the INR, this is unlikely to have a material impact on markets. Japan inflation likely to moderate, core machinery orders to rise Japan's CPI inflation is expected to decelerate to 2.7% YoY in December from 2.9% YoY in November, with falling utility prices and other energy prices weighing on the overall number. Service sector prices, however, will likely rise on the back of high demand in travel related items such as accommodations and eating out. Meanwhile, core machinery orders should advance in November, supported by solid vehicle demand and recent recovery of semiconductor sector. Bank Indonesia to extend their pause Bank Indonesia (BI) is likely to extend its pause into 2024, with Governor Perry Warjiyo wary over a potential flare up in food inflation. Inflation has been relatively stable, but a looming El Nino episode and an expected acceleration in domestic activity ahead of the national elections in February could stoke price pressures in the near term. Concern over inflation should keep BI on hold, with the central bank also attempting to support the IDR, which is down 0.58% early in 2024. Singapore NODX to post modest rise again Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) could post another modest expansion in December after recently snapping a string of negative growth for 13 months. A favorable base and a recent pickup in select electronics shipments likely supported NODX in December 2023. We can expect this trend to extend into early 2024. Key events in Asia next week

FX Daily: Waiting on central bankers to shake data-resistant markets Investors have cemented Fed easing expectations despite some hotter-than-expected US data. We suspect a market reluctant to price out rate cuts will need strong words from the Fed – perhaps Powell himself – to reconnect rate expectations with data. Meanwhile, USD may stay rangebound. This week, Lagarde will speak in Davos, and UK CPI should slow further.   USD: Rate expectations still disjointed from data The first half of January has shown a dislocation between rate expectations and data in the US. The two most important data points for the Federal Reserve, labour and CPI inflation figures, both came in hotter than expected. PPI was a bit softer than consensus on Friday, but that is not enough to justify markets’ reluctance to price out Fed easing. The Fed funds future curve prices in 21bp of cuts in March, and 168bp by year-end. Our view remains that the Fed won’t start cutting before May, and that the total easing package will be 150bp. Accordingly, the rally in short-term USD rates appears overdone, and weakness in the front part of the USD curve should support some recovery in the dollar. However, we suspect that the data may prove insufficient to trigger a USD rebound for now; the consensus view of a dollar decline later this year seems to be making investors keen to sell dollar rallies. Also, the Fed probably needs to send a clearer message that the latest data does not justify the kind of aggressively dovish view embedded in money market pricing. There are a few more Fed speakers lined up this week, but perhaps dollar bears will want to hear it from Fed Chief Jerome Powell, who is not scheduled to speak until the 31 January FOMC announcement. Incidentally, the US data calendar isn’t very busy this week. Retail sales and the University of Michigan inflation expectations will attract the most attention along with jobless claims - which came in well below expectations last week, reinforcing the narrative of a still-tight labour market. We think the dollar will be driven more by other events than data this week, barring major surprises. First, the results of the election in Taiwan have raised again the delicate question of Taipei-Beijing relationships, with tensions among the two seen as a major risk for Asian and global risk sentiment this year. The dollar might benefit from some outflows from exposed EM FX. The situation in the Gulf also looks rather volatile after the US and UK military operations last week, even though the impact on oil prices has been muted so far.   Domestically, we’ll monitor the market reaction to the business tax relief extension currently being discussed in the US Congress. The impact of fiscal support may turn out to be negative for risk sentiment – and positive for the dollar – as markets see a greater risk of sticky inflation and a lower chance of Fed rate cuts. We think the dollar is more at risk of a rebound than a further correction from these levels, although the chances of another rangebound trading week in FX (DXY still hovering in the 102/103 region) are high.

USD A mixed payrolls report for December offered some contradictory signals: steady job creation and healthy wage growth in the establishment survey, contrasted with a sizable drop in labour force participation in the household one. Investors initially reacted to the strong December job creation number by sending the dollar higher, although the greenback quickly reversed course on realisation that the 71k downward revision to the October and November data more than made up for the upside surprise in the final month of the year. All in all, the US labour market continues to enjoy full employment, but signs of cooling are accumulating. All this will be overshadowed by the key December CPI inflation report on Wednesday. A two-in-three chance of a March cut from the Federal Reserve currently priced in by markets still strikes us as too high, and this week's inflation number will go a long way towards settling the debate.