corrective cycle

Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair had made the last swing low at the level of 1.2308 as the market is still under the bearish pressure, but the bulls have managed to retrace 61% of the last wave down and hit the level of 1.2540. The market is trading above the 50 and 100 MA already.   The intraday technical support is located at 1.2517. The momentum is strong and positive on the H4 time frame chart, which supports the bullish short-term outlook for GBP, however the extremely overbought market conditions had been hit, so the pull-back might occur any time soon.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.23581 WR2 - 1.23505 WR1 - 1.23473 Weekly Pivot - 1.23429 WS1 - 1.23397 WS2 - 1.23353 WS3 - 1.23277   Trading Outlook: A Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern on the Weekly time frame chart 100 pips away from the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2778 might indicate the corrective cycle to the upside had been terminated. Any sustained breakout below the technical support at 1.2444 will be the first indication of stronger bearish pressure.

Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has been seen getting away from the swing low located at the level of 1.0636 and the recent local high was made at the level of 1.0780, just above the technical resistance seen at 1.0761.   The immediate technical support is seen at the level of 1.0747. On the other hand, the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.0623 and the down move should resume as soon as the pull-back is done. There is no indication of the down trend to terminate or reverse yet. The market participants await the NFP-Payrolls data release that might trigger an increase in volatility.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.07387 WR2 - 1.07284 WR1 - 1.07229 Weekly Pivot - 1.07181 WS1 - 1.07126 WS2 - 1.07078 WS3 - 1.06975   Trading Outlook: Since the beginning of October 2022 the EUR/USD is in the corrective cycle to the upside, but the main, long-term trend remains bearish. This corrective cycle might had been terminated at the level of 1.2080 which is 61% Fibonacci retracement level. The EUR had made a new multi-decade low at the level of 0.9538, so as long as the USD is being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue towards the new lows.  

On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair grew "out of nowhere" again. And it was an impressive one at that. Take note that there was no significant news from the UK this week. If, for example, the Bank of England had made hawkish statements, the movement would have been understandable.   However, all the data that influenced the market came from overseas, and many of them favored the dollar. The situation with the euro is slightly different, which explains its growth. After all, yesterday and the daybefore that, several important reports were released in the EU, two speeches by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde took place, and the ECB minutes were published. But it is very difficult to say why the pound is rising again.       However, we did experience a good intraday trending movement yesterday, which made the trading signals strong and profitable. Initially, the pair consolidated below the range of 1.2429-1.2445 and managed to move down by about 20 pips, allowing for setting a stop loss at breakeven and leaving the trade without losses when the pair consolidated above the mentioned range. Based on the buy signal, long positions should have been opened, and the price subsequently surpassed the nearest target level of 1.2520.   The trade should have been manually closed in the evening, resulting in a profit of about 75 pips, which is quite good. But let's reiterate: it is convenient to trade when there is a strong and trend-driven movement. It is necessary to avoid flat markets.     According to the latest report, non-commercial traders closed 8,100 long positions and 7,100 short ones. The net position dropped by 1,000 but remained bullish. Over the past 9-10 months, the net position has been on the rise despite bearish sentiment. The pound is bullish against the greenback in the medium term, but there have been hardly any reasons for that. We assume that a prolonged bear run has begun. COT reports suggest a bullish continuation. However, we can hardly explain why the uptrend should go on.   Both major pairs are in correlation now. At the same time, the positive net position on EUR/USD shows the end of the uptrend. Meanwhile, the net position on GBP/USD is neutral. The pound has gained about 2,300 pips. Therefore, a bearish correction is now needed. Otherwise, a bullish continuation would make no sense even despite the lack of support from fundamental factors. Overall, non-commercial traders hold 57,600 sell positions and 69,200 long ones. We do not see the pair extending growth in the long term.     In the 1-hour time frame, the pair has started an upward movement, surpassing all the lines of the Ichimoku indicator. The pound doesn't exactly have grounds to buy the pound, which remains heavily overbought. However, take note that the market has the right to trade regardless of the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop. The only thing I can say is that the movement doesn't correspond to the nature of the reports and news.   On June 2, trading levels are seen at 1.2269, 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2520, 1.2589, 1.2666, 1.2762. Senkou Span B (1.2550) and Kijun-sen (1.2375) lines may also generate signals when the price either breaks or bounces off them. A Stop Loss should be placed at the breakeven point when the price goes 20 pips in the right direction. Ichimoku indicator lines can move intraday, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.   There are also support and resistance which can be used for locking in profits. Today, the event calendar is empty in the UK.   On the other hand, the United States will release its highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment reports. We have no doubt that the market will react to them, and the reaction could be practically anything - it is currently impossible to predict the values of the reports. Indicators on charts:   Resistance/support - thick red lines, near which the trend may stop. They do not make trading signals. The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the Ichimoku indicator lines moved to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are also strong lines. Extreme levels are thin red lines, from which the price used to bounce earlier. They can produce trading signals. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT chart is the size of the net position of each trader category. Indicator 2 on the COT chart is the size of the net position for the Non-commercial group of traders.  

Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has been seen bouncing from the local low made at the level of 1.0675 and so far the high of the bounce was made at the level of 1.0732. The intraday technical resistance is seen at 1.0780, so bulls need to break out above this level in order to continue higher. Any breakout below the level of 1.0675 would sustain the bearish outlook and put the level of 1.0636 for a test (swing low). The weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook for EUR as the bulls are not able to move above the neutral level of fifty on the RSI indicator.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.07335 WR2 - 1.07121 WR1 - 1.06983 Weekly Pivot - 1.06907 WS1 - 1.06769 WS2 - 1.06693 WS3 - 1.06479   Trading Outlook: Since the beginning of October 2022 the EUR/USD is in the corrective cycle to the upside, but the main, long-term trend remains bearish. This corrective cycle might had been terminated at the level of 1.2080 which is 61% Fibonacci retracement level. The EUR had made a new multi-decade low at the level of 0.9538, so as long as the USD is being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue towards the new lows.  

Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has been seen bouncing from the local low made at the level of 1.0675 and so far the high of the bounce was made at the level of 1.0732. The intraday technical resistance is seen at 1.0780, so bulls need to break out above this level in order to continue higher. Any breakout below the level of 1.0675 would sustain the bearish outlook and put the level of 1.0636 for a test (swing low). The weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook for EUR as the bulls are not able to move above the neutral level of fifty on the RSI indicator.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.07335 WR2 - 1.07121 WR1 - 1.06983 Weekly Pivot - 1.06907 WS1 - 1.06769 WS2 - 1.06693 WS3 - 1.06479   Trading Outlook: Since the beginning of October 2022 the EUR/USD is in the corrective cycle to the upside, but the main, long-term trend remains bearish. This corrective cycle might had been terminated at the level of 1.2080 which is 61% Fibonacci retracement level. The EUR had made a new multi-decade low at the level of 0.9538, so as long as the USD is being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue towards the new lows.  

It's not surprising that the market is simply stagnant. Not only is the economic calendar completely empty, but traders are also focused on a few other things, quite detached from the global economy. However, this cannot go on forever.   Especially since macro data will be published today. And we're not talking about some insignificant data, but about durable goods orders in the United States, which are expected to fall by 0.9%. This means that consumer activity is somewhat declining. Following that, inflation will continue to slow down. So this could prove to be disadvantageous for the dollar today, and the greenback may depreciate.     The GBP/USD pair has once again rebounded from the support level of 1.2700. However, there have been no significant changes on the trading chart, and the quote is still around the low end of the corrective cycle. On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is hovering along the 50 midline, indicating a flat.   On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are headed downwards. This is a residual signal from the corrective move. Outlook: The sideways movement between 1.2700 and 1.2750 can serve as a consolidation phase, during which sharp price changes are possible. The most optimal tactic would be a breakout strategy based on the range.   In terms of the complex indicator analysis, we see that in the short-term and intraday period, technical indicators are giving mixed signals due to the flat phase. In the medium-term, the indicators are pointing to an upward cycle.  

The EUR/USD pair has been rejected from the 50 and 100 MA located at 1.0886 and in the short-term the bulls are under pressure. Currently, the volatility on the market was subdued and the market participants await the fundamental trigger to increase the market movement.   The immediate technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.0883 (100 MA), but the key technical support is seen at 1.0836. Please notice, the momentum is back under the level of fifty, so there is a confirmation of the bearish pressure on the lower time frame charts. Only a sustained breakout above the moving average dynamic resistance would change the outlook to more bullish. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.09868 WR2 - 1.09389 WR1 - 1.09120 Weekly Pivot - 1.08910 WS1 - 1.08641 WS2 - 1.08431 WS3 - 1.07952   Trading Outlook: Since the beginning of October 2022 the EUR/USD is in the corrective cycle to the upside, but the main, long-term trend remains bearish. This corrective cycle might had been terminated at the level of 1.2080 which is 61% Fibonacci retracement level. The EUR had made a new multi-decade low at the level of 0.9538, so as long as the USD is being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue towards the new lows. Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/329986      

Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the key technical resistance located at 1.0834 and is heading towards the 100 MA on H4 time frame chart located at 1.0887. The big Head & Shoulders pattern on the H4 time frame chart extends the market drop the downside with a potential target seen at the level of 1.0636 (H&S measurement), however, now is the time for a pull-back. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of 1.0841 and the intraday technical resistance is located at 1.0893. The strong and positive momentum on the H4 time frame chart supports the short-term bullish outlook for EUR.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.08599 WR2 - 1.08348 WR1 - 1.08265 Weekly Pivot - 1.08097 WS1 - 1.08014 WS2 - 1.07846 WS3 - 1.07595   Trading Outlook: Since the beginning of October 2022 the EUR/USD is in the corrective cycle to the upside, but the main, long-term trend remains bearish. This corrective cycle might be terminated at the level of 1.1286 which is 61% Fibonacci retracement level when it is hit, so please keep an eye on this level and the way the market participants (bulls and bears) will deal with it.    

Details of the Economic Calendar on November 22 Data on durable goods orders in the United States declined 5.4% in October, while the forecast predicted a drop of only 2.8%. The negative impact was slightly mitigated by data on jobless claims in the U.S., which reflected a decrease in their overall volume despite the forecast of an increase. Statistical details indicate that the volume of continuing claims fell from 1.862 million to 1.840 million, while the volume of initial claims rose from 233,000 to 209,000 Analysis of Trading Charts from November 22 During the corrective movement, the EUR/USD currency pair almost reached the level of 1.0850. This movement was characterized in the market as local, after which the quote returned above the level of 1.0900. The GBP/USD pair temporarily dropped below the level of 1.2450 during a technical pullback, but then returned to the area around the level of 1.2500. The current pullback fits into the structure of an upward cycle, and no shifts in trading interests are observed.   Economic Calendar on November 23 The publication of preliminary estimates for business activity indices in the United Kingdom and the United States is expected. Despite the importance of this event for the market, it is likely to go unnoticed. Today is a holiday in the United States due to Thanksgiving Day, which, in turn, will lead to a decrease in trading volumes. EUR/USD Trading Plan for November 23 Price stabilization above the level of 1.0900 may indicate a possible increase in the volume of long positions, paving the way to the level of 1.1000. On the other hand, holding the price below the level of 1.0850 may lead to an extension of the corrective cycle.     GBP/USD Trading Plan for November 23 Maintaining the price above the level of 1.2500 may subsequently indicate an increase in the volume of long positions. In this case, an update of the local high within the upward cycle is possible. As for the pullback scenario, it may be relevant if the price remains below the level of 1.2450.     What's on the charts The candlestick chart type is white and black graphic rectangles with lines above and below. With a detailed analysis of each individual candle, you can see its characteristics relative to a particular time frame: opening price, closing price, intraday high and low. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a price may stop or reverse its trajectory. In the market, these levels are called support and resistance. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price reversed in history. This color highlighting indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the asset's price in the future. The up/down arrows are landmarks of the possible price direction in the future.