corn

Agriculture: Shipping disruptions from Brazil push coffee higher

  • Arabica coffee front month contract jumped around 7% yesterday as shipping disruptions from Brazil risk tightening the market in the short term. Brazil’s ports are facing strikes by customs officers and other inspectors from 22-26 January that are likely to delay shipments originating from Brazil. The tensions around the Red Sea trade route have further supported coffee prices. The shipment disruptions from Brazil could impact other commodities as well including soybeans, corn and sugar.

 

    According to China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, soybean production in China reached an all-time high of 20.84mt in 2023 primarily due to the country’s support for food security. Meanwhile, the soybean planting area in China reached 157 million mu (about 10.47 million hectares) last year, while that of oilseed crops exceeded 200 million mu. The ministry added that it plans to further increase the planting

Is It Too Late To Begin Adapting To Higher Volatility In The Market?

Is It Too Late To Begin Adapting To Higher Volatility In The Market?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 07.03.2022 22:18
Now is the time for traders to adapt to higher volatility and rapidly changing market conditions. One of the best ways to do this is to monitor different asset classes and track which investments are gaining and losing money flow. Knowing what the Best Asset Now is (BAN) is critical for consistent growth no matter the market condition.With that said, buyers (countries, investors, and traders) are panicking as the commodity Wheat, for example, gained more than 40% last week.‘Panic Commodity Buying’ in Wheat – Weekly ChartAccording to the US Dept. of Agriculture, China will hold 69% of the world’s corn reserves, 60% of rice and 51% of wheat by mid-2022.Commodity markets surged to their largest gains in years as Ukrainian ports were closed and sanctions against Russia sent buyers scrambling for replacement supplies. Global commodities, commodity funds, and commodity ETFs are attracting huge capital inflows as investors seek to cash in on the rally in oil, metals, and grains.How does the Russia – Ukraine war affect global food supplies?The conflict between major commodity producers Russia and Ukraine is causing countries that rely heavily on commodity imports to feed their citizens to enter into panic buying. The breadbaskets of Ukraine and Russia account for more than 25% of the global wheat trade and nearly 20% of the global corn trade.Last week, it was reported that many countries have dangerously low grain supplies. Nader Saad, an Egypt Cabinet spokesman, has raised the alarm that currently, Egypt has only nine months’ worth of wheat in silos. The supply includes five months of strategic reserves and four months of domestic production to cover the bread needs of 102 million Egyptians. Additionally, Avigdor Lieberman, Israel’s economic minister, said on Thursday (3/3/22) that his country should keep “a low profile” regarding the conflict in eastern Europe, given that Israel imports 50 percent of its wheat from Russia and 30 percent from Ukraine.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!The longer-term potential for much higher grain prices exists, but it’s worth noting that Friday’s close of nearly $12.00 a bushel for wheat is not that far away from the all-time record high of $13.30, recorded 14-years ago. According to Trading Economics, wheat has gone up 75.08% year-to-date while other commodity markets like Oats are up a whopping 85.13%, Coffee 74.68%, and Corn 34.07%.How are other markets reacting to these global events?Year-to-date comparison returns as of 3/4/2022:-9.18% S&P 500 (index), -7.49% DJI (index), -15.21% Nasdaq (index), +37.44% Exxon Mobile (oil), +20.08% Freeport McMoran (copper & gold), -20.68% Tesla (alternative energy), -24.49% Microstrategy (bitcoin play), -40.51% Meta-Facebook (social media)As stock holdings and 401k’s are shrinking it may be time to re-evaluate your portfolio. There are ETFs available that can give you exposure to commodities, energy, and metals.Here is an example of a few of these ETFs:+53.81% WEAT Teucrium Wheat Fund+41.79% GSG iShares S&P TSCI Commodity -Indexed Trust+104.40 UCO ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil+59.32% PALL Aberdeen Standard Physical Palladium SharesHow is the global investor reacting to rocketing commodity prices and increasing market volatility?We can track global money flow by monitoring the following 1-month currency graph (www.finviz.com). The Australian Dollar is up +4.25%, the New Zealand Dollar +3.72%, and the Canadian Dollar +0.30% vs. the US Dollar due to the rising commodity prices like metals and energy. These country currencies are known as commodity currencies.The Switzerland Franc +0.96%, the Japanese Yen +0.35%, and the US Dollar +0.00% are all benefiting from global capital seeking a safe haven. As volatility continues to spike, these country currencies will experience more inflows as capital comes out of depreciating assets and seeks stability.We also notice that capital outflow is occurring from the European Union-Eurodollar -4.55% and the British Pound -2.22% due to their close proximity (risk) to the Russia - Ukraine war.www.finviz.comGlobal central banks will need to begin raising their interest rates to combat high inflation!Due to the rapid acceleration of inflation, the US Federal Reserve may have been looking to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at its policy meeting two weeks from now. However, given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the FED may become more cautious and consider raising interest rates by only 25 basis points on March 15-16.What strategies can help you navigate current market trends?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals are starting to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.Now is the time to keep your eye on the ball!I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Ringing the Bell

Ringing the Bell

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 09.03.2022 16:03
S&P 500 once again gave up intraday gains, and credit markets confirmed the decline. Value down significantly more than tech, risk-off anywhere you look. For days without end, but the reprieve can come on seemingly little to no positive news, just when the sellers exhaust themselves and need to regroup temporarily. We‘re already seeing signs of such a respite in precious metals and commodities – be it the copper downswing, oil unable to break $130, or miners not following gold much higher yesterday. Corn and wheat also consolidated – right or wrong, the market seeks to anticipate some relief from Eastern Europe.The big picture though hasn‘t changed:(…) credit markets … posture is very risk-off, and the rush to commodities goes on. With a little check yesterday on the high opening prices in crude oil and copper, but still. My favorite agrifoods picks of late, wheat and corn, are doing great, and the pressure within select base metals, is building up – such as (for understandable reasons) in nickel and aluminum. Look for more to come, especially there where supply is getting messed with (this doesn‘t concern copper to such a degree, explaining its tepid price gains).And I‘m not talking even the brightest spot, where I at the onset of 2022 announced that precious metals would be the great bullish surprise this year. Those who listened, are rocking and rolling – we‘re nowhere near the end of the profitable run! Crude oil is likely to consolidate prior steep gains, and could definitely continue spiking higher. Should it stay comfortably above $125 for months, that would lead to quite some demand destruction. Given that black gold acts as a „shadow Fed funds rate“, ......its downswing would contribute to providing the Fed with an excuse not to hike in Mar by 50bp. After the prior run up in the price of black gold that however renders such an excuse a verbal exercise only, the Fed remains between a rock and hard place, and the inflationary fires keep raging on.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is reaching for the Feb 24 lows, and may find respite at this level. The upper knot though would need a solid close today (above 4,250) to be of short-term significance. Remember, the market remains very much headline sensitive.Credit MarketsHYG clearly remains on the defensive, but the sellers may need a pause here, if volume is any guide. Bonds are getting beaten, and the outlook remains negative to neutral for the weeks ahead. Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals keep doing great, but a pause is knocking on the door. Not a reversal, a pause. Gold and silver are indeed the go-to assets in the current situation, and miners agree wholeheartedly.Crude OilCrude oil is having trouble extending gains, and the consolidation I mentioned yesterday, approaches. I do not think however that this is the end of the run higher.CopperCopper is pausing already, and this underperformer looks very well bid above $4.60. Let the red metal build a base, and continue rising next, alongside the rest of the crowd.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos upswing equals more risk appetite? It could be so, looking at the dollar‘s chart (I‘m talking that in the summary of today‘s analysis).SummaryEvery dog has its day, and the S&P 500‘s one might be coming today or tomorrow. It‘s that the safe havens of late (precious metals, commodities and the dollar) are having trouble extending prior steep gains further. These look to be in for a brief respite that would be amplified on any possible news of deescalation. In such an environment, risk taking would flourish at expense of gold, silver and oil especially. I don‘t think so we have seen the tops – precious metals are likely to do great on the continued inflation turning into stagflation (GDP growth figures being downgraded), and commodities are set to further benefit from geopolitics (among much else).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
What Is Going On Financial Markets Today? Russia Will Not Resume Deliveries Of Gas

"Boring" Bitcoin (BTC) And Gaining S&P 500 (SPX). Crude Oil Price Chart Shows A Green Candle At The Right Hand Side,

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 18.03.2022 15:50
S&P 500 extended gains, and the risk appetite in bonds carried over into value rising faster than tech. Given the TLT downswing though, it‘s all but rainbows and unicorns ahead today. Not only that quad witching would bring high volume and chop, VIX itself doesn‘t look to slide smoothly below 25 today. Friday‘s ride would be thus rocky, and affected by momentum stalling in both tech and value. Real assets though can and will enjoy the deserved return into the spotlight. With much of the preceding downswing being based on deescalation hopes (that aren‘t materializing, still), the unfolding upswing in copper, oil and precious metals (no, they aren‘t to be spooked by the tough Fed tightening talk) would happen at a more measured pace than had been the case recently. Pay attention to the biting inflation, surrounding blame games hinting at no genuine respite – read through the rich captions of today‘s chart analyses, and think about reliable stores of real value. And of course, enjoy the open profits. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 looks likely to consolidate as the 4,400 – 4,450 zone would be tough to overcome, and such a position relative to both the moving averages shown, has historically stopped quite a few steep recoveries off very negative sentiment readings. Credit Markets HYG is likely to slow down here, as in really stall and face headwinds. The run had been respectable, and much of the easy gains happened already yesterday. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals upswing did indeed return – and the miners performance doesn‘t hint at a swift return of the bears, to put it mildly. The path to $1950s is open. Crude Oil Crude oil bottom was indeed in, and the price can keep recovering towards $110s and beyond. No, the economy isn‘t crashing yet, monetary policy isn‘t forcing that outcome, and the drawing of petroleum reserves is a telltale sign of upside price pressures mounting. It‘ll be an interesting April, mark my words. Copper Copper is duly rebounding, and not at all overheated. The move is also in line with other base metals. My yesterday‘s target of $4.70 has already been reached – I‘m looking for a measured pace of gains to continue. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are taking a small break, highlighting the perils of today. The boat won‘t be rocked too much. Summary S&P 500 bulls made the easy gains already yesterday, and today‘s session is going to be volatile, even treacherous in establishing a clear and lasting direction (i.e. choppy), and the headwinds would be out there in the plain open. These would come from bonds not continuing in the risk-on turn convincingly rather than commodities and metals surging head over heels. Both tech and value would feel the heat as VIX would show signs of waking up (to some degree). Today‘s session won‘t change the big picture dynamics of late, and I invite you to read more in-depth commentary within the individual market sections of today‘s full analysis. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Cryptos on the front foot as rebound turns into new uptrend

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Cryptos on the front foot as rebound turns into new uptrend

FXStreet News FXStreet News 24.03.2022 16:22
Bitcoin price set to touch $45,000 by tomorrow if current tailwinds keep supporting price action. Ethereum price set to rally another 12%, with bulls targeting $3,500.00XRP price undergoes consolidation as the next profit level is $0.90.Bitcoin price, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies are enjoying a calm week with tailwinds finally able to thrive without constant interruption from headlines about Ukraine or Russia. Markets are also starting to adjust to the situation, with no immediate or significant movements anymore triggered by headlines coming out. Expect to see more upside with several possible cryptocurrencies eking out the best week of the year thus far.Bitcoin price has a defined game plan with $44,088 as the target for today and $45,261 by the weekendBitcoin (BTC) price is on the front foot for a third consecutive day as the rally turns into a broader uptrend. The crucial thing will be to see where BTC price will close this week, as bears need to get weakened with several short squeezes and breakouts running stops from short-sellers. Despite being elevated, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still not near the 'overbought' level, providing enough incentive for bulls and investors to keep buying BTC price action.BTC price is set to hit $44,088.73 today, the level of the March 03 highs. If that is gained – and given the current tailwinds – markets will start to expect Bitcoin to eke out new highs for the month with still a week to go. This additional bullish element should help conclude a daily close above $44,088.73. A support test on that same level will trigger new inflows from investors and provide the needed juice to pump price action up to $45,261.84, topping $45,000.00.BTC/USD daily chartA tail risk comes from the big joint meeting today in Brussels, with Biden meeting NATO, the G7 and E.U. leaders. An embargo on gas is on the table and could roil markets if the E.U. decides to walk away from Russian gas supplies, opening up the possibility of further Russian retaliation in Ukraine. That would make global markets move back to risk-off mode, with Bitcoin price dropping back to support at $39,780.68, and intersecting with the green ascending trend line. Ethereum price targets $3,500 after bulls force a daily close above $3,018.55Ethereum (ETH) price is performing a 'classic long' trading plan today after bulls pushed a daily close above $3,018.55. With price action in ETH opening slightly above this level, this morning, the price has faded slightly back towards that same $3,018.55 level to find support and offer the opportunity for new bulls and investors to enter the market. Ethereum price will move back to the upside and continue its rally, which is currently looking more and more like an uptrend that could continue over a broader time frame.ETH price will therefore need to find support around $3,018.55 as the fade will need to be kept in check, as too large a fade could spook investors. Seeing as the current favourable tailwinds are quite broadly present in global markets, expect to see another uplift towards $3,200 and $3,391.52 depending on the number of new positive headlines acting as additional accelerators. With those moves, at least new highs for March will be printed and possibly for February, depending on how steep the rally can continue.ETH/USD daily chartThe risk for Ethereum price is that price action slips back below $3,018.55. That could open the door for bears to jump in again and run price action back to $2,835.83, which is the low of March 21 and the monthly pivot. An additional fail-safe system is the 55-day Simple Moving Average at $2,808.84 as an additional supportive factor to take into account.https://youtu.be/wgpCSH70SIQXRP price undergoes consolidation as the bullish breakout hits $0.90Ripple's (XRP) price has bears and bulls being pushed towards each other as the bodies of the candles from the past two sessions grow very thin. This points to bulls and bears fighting it out and neither yet having the upper hand. Bears are defending the area above $0.8390 from bulls running to $0.8791, and bulls are trying to defend their support at $0.7843. With lower highs and higher lows, the stage is set for a breakout that, seeing the current tailwinds, will probably favour bulls, and result in a quick move towards $0.8791.XRP price is thus set to print new highs for March. With the stock markets having their best performing week for this year, expect to see even more tailwinds spilling over to cryptocurrencies and bulls targeting $0.9110. At that level, bulls will run into the 200-day SMA which will possibly be the halting point of the current uptrend as investors will need to reassess the situation before they advance. Where global markets are at that point and how far off a peace treaty is between Russia and Ukraine will determine if bulls will advance towards $1.00 in XRP price.XRP/USD daily chartAlthough several statements suggest it is unlikely, should Putin be backed further into a corner, the use of nuclear weapons could cast a dark shadow on markets. Expect a massive drop in equities and cryptocurrencies with those headlines coming out, where XRP price will fall towards $0.7843 or even $0.7600. In the first case, the historic pivotal level will provide support and further down, the monthly pivot is set to intertwine with the 55-day SMA, which should be enough to catch any falling-knife action. https://youtu.be/ZWrKMd2CiL8
Tilray Stock Forecast: TLRY zooms 18% higher on US legislation hopes

Tilray Stock Forecast: TLRY zooms 18% higher on US legislation hopes

FXStreet News FXStreet News 26.03.2022 05:15
Tilray stock rose 21.8% on ThursdayHigh level of call contracts expire this Friday.US lower house will take up decriminalization legislation next week.Canadian cannabis powerhouse Tilray Brands (TLRY) is reaping the benefits of the US House of Representatives adding major legislation important to the industry to the calendar for next week. Tilray stock is up more than 18% at Friday's open to a momentary high of $8.35. In just a week the company has doubled its market cap, and other competitors like Sundial Growers (SNDL), Canopy Growth Corporation (CGC), Aurora Cannabis (ACB) also benefitting from the optimism.Tilray Brands Stock News: MORE Act has cannabis stocks rallyingThe Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment & Expungement Act, or MORE Act, will receive focus from the House and taken up for discussion next week. This law would decriminalize cannabis at the federal level, which may allow cannabis companies to begin utilizing better financing through regular old banks. As of now, most banks will not work with cannabis growers, which forces them to seek out a much higher cost of capital. The law would also erase past federal criminal offenses involving the sale of cannabis. This would be a major step toward broader decriminalization of recreational use that more states may follow, which would eventually open up new markets and customers to existing licensed growers.Tilray call options are soaring in value on Friday morning, even those that expire at the end of the session. The $8 strike contract has soared more than 82% to $0.42, and at the time of writing 8,730 contracts have traded already. This is about 25% above open interest. Sundial Growers stock is up nearly 12%, and Cresco Labs has advanced more than 5%.Tilray announced earlier this month that it had acquired $211 million in convertible notes from Hexo, another major competitor in Canadian cannabis. If exercised, Tilray would own about 37% of Hexo. This is yet another move by Tilray to grow its global footprint. The corporation already has access to the Canadian, US and European markets. The current management strategy is to raise revenue, now at $600 million annually, to $4 billion by 2024. Tilray seems to be trying to achieve this mostly through acquisitions. The stock is down 65% over the past year, partly because Tilray has diluted its shareholders by more than 50% in order to pay for some of these acquisitions.Tilray Brands Forecast: Breaking through one year of resistanceOn Thursday Tilray stock resolutely broke through top line resistance that has been working on the daily chart for about one year. The descending top line has been in play since about March 17, 2021, and connects to highs on June 9, 2021, and November 14, 2021. By closing up nearly 22% on Thursday, TLRY broke that trend line with force. Resistance at $7.30 has now turned into support, with Friday's intraday high of $8.35. Although TLRY is selling off to $7.55 in mid-session, bulls will see regaining this $8.35 high as a significant goal. From there, the resistance target rises to $9.94 – the high from December 8, 2021.TLRY 1-day chart
Platinum and Random Length Lumber Futures Prices Falling Whilst Corn Futures Are Showing Bullish Signals.

Platinum and Random Length Lumber Futures Prices Falling Whilst Corn Futures Are Showing Bullish Signals.

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 27.04.2022 08:47
Summary: Changes in investor sentiment is driving the price of Platinum down. Random Length Lumber Futures prices fall as supply increases amidst supply chain backlogs clearing. Corn prices increase as supply tightens and planting slows. Platinum Futures showing bearish signals. Over the past week Platinum futures have seen a steady decline in price. This decline in price comes with the concerns over China’s COVID lockdowns, and its possibility of causing a decrease in the demand for Platinum. Since the market opened this morning, the price of Platinum futures has increased by 0.14%. Earlier this year the price of metals spiked due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict but as time has gone on, the bullish signals that have come from the war have slowed, causing the price of some commodities to fall as a result of this change in market and investor sentiment. Platinum Jul 22 Futures Price Chart Read next: Palladium Price To Struggle In Recovery, Silver Prices (XAGUSD) Facing Downward Pressure  Corn futures are recovering after dipping earlier this week. The price of corn futures have not seen any clear trend over the past week, the price increase on monday comes as a result of prospects of higher demand against lower production as well as the current supply chain issues. In addition, the dryness in Brazil, decreasing planting space in the U.S., the delay in China's planting due to lockdowns and two of the world's major corn exporters (Russia and the Ukraine) are in a war - these are all aspects that drive the price of corn up. However, since the market opened this morning we have seen the price of Corn Futures fall by almost 0.45%. Corn Futures Jul 22 Price Chart Random Length Lumber Futures The price of Random Length Lumber Futures has been showing a steady decline over the past days, this comes as demand decreases and supply increases. Supply chain issues regarding lumber have eased causing a temporary flood to the market, as well as favorable spring weather. In addition, the rising inflation caused a pause on the rising U.S housing market, again driving down the price of Lumber. Random Length Lumber Futures Price Chart Read next: U.S bond Yields vs Gold Futures, Volatility In The Price Of Coffee, Brent Crude Price Falls  Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com, reuters.com
Russia's Active Production Cuts Could Be Grounds For A Bullish Shock

Brent Crude Oil Price Continues To Dive, Silver Struggling To Hold Its Price Position & Corn Prices Soaring.

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 03.05.2022 14:58
Summary: Brent crude oil faces production problems around the world. Silver prices have been driven down by the US Dollar rally. Corn Futures are expected to remain elevated. Brent Crude Oil prices heavily affected by China's lockdowns. Over the past week we have seen the price of Brent Crude Oil fell amidst the lockdowns in China. The effect the lockdowns have had on the macro economy have been big, this price fall comes despite the warnings of production problems. There is currently a production problem with crude oil worldwide. April saw Russia’s production fall by almost 1 million barrels. The problems in the supply chains, the war and the lockdowns in China are all causing huge market volatility. Brent Crude Oil Price Chart   Read next: Gold (XAUUSD) Prices Fall As U.S Yields Rise, Wheat Prices Facing Pressure, Palladium Prices In Recovery! - Commodities Today.   Silver Prices struggling to fight against the current US Dollar rally. After seeing a dip in price on Monday, the price of silver futures seem to be somewhat recovering. One of the dominant drivers of the silver price is investor demand, seeing as it is considered a safe-haven asset that is mainly used by manufacturers of goods. The US Dollar continued to rally this past week, which is increasing the opportunity cost of holding silver, driving demand and prices down. Silver Futures Price Chart Corn Future Prices expected to stay elevated. The price of corn futures saw large increases earlier this week, this comes as a result of the poor harvest in Latin America for this season, and war in the Ukraine putting pressure on supply chains and supply. Corn is up by 37% year-to-date. The prices are expected to stay elevated for some time to come. Corn Futures Price Chart   Read next: Exxon and Chevron Earnings Announcements Has Little Effect on Brent Crude Oil Prices, Bullish Market Sentiment For Cotton and Gold Prices Rise Again    Sources: finance.yahoo.com
OPEC+ Are Expected To Keeping Oil Production Unchanged, AUD/USD Trades At Its Highest Levels

Prices Of Brent Crude Oil And Silver Fall As The US Dollar Strengthening, Corn Prices Face Downward Price Pressure.

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 09.05.2022 15:35
Summary: Brent crude oil prices are seeing some decline. Silver prices face downward pressure amidst the US Dollar Strengthening. Corn prices fall amidst worries about falling demand. Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold, Coffee and Crude Oil - Commodities Facing Price Trouble Over the Past Month  Brent crude oil price falls. The price of oil has fallen on Monday amidst concerns around the strengthening US Dollar which hit a two-decade high, making holding oil more expensive for other currencies. The lockdowns in China have raised concerns around the demand for oil from the world's biggest importer. In addition the world's biggest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, lowered the prices of crude for Europe and Asia in June. All of these factors have resulted in the price of Brent Crude Oil falling. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart   Read next: What Is (DYDX)? dYdX Cryptocurrency Supporting Perpetual Trading - Altcoins of Interest | FXMAG.COM    As US yields increase, silver's value falls. The price of silver has been falling over the past week. The price fall comes as the Fed continues with their hawkish attitude. Silver is used as a hedge against inflation, with the Fed increasing the US yields in an attempt to fight inflation, the opportunity cost for holding silver increases. Investors are selling their silver and turning to investments where they can yield a higher return at the same level of risk i.e. US treasury bonds. Silver Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn prices facing downward price pressure. On monday the price of Corn futures had fallen by almost 1%, there has been a downward price trend for corn futures over the past week. There are still concerns around the lack of supply for corn all over the world, however, with the lockdowns in China, concerns around falling demand have risen. Last week the amount of traders who shorted corn outweighed those who chose to go long, indicating they expected the price to drop. Corn Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: Soybean Prices Reached Almost Record Prices, Platinum Investors Turning To New Suppliers, Copper Prices Struggling To Recover.  Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, cnbc.com, reuters.com, barchart.com
Corn Prices Recorded Their Biggest Weekly Gain, Gold Demand In India May Suffer A Temporary Setback

The Commodities Feed: Further US gasoline draws | ING Economics

ING Economics ING Economics 25.05.2022 08:37
Your daily roundup of commodities news and ING views Energy The oil market has traded firmer during the morning session in Asia. API numbers overnight were once again supportive for the market. Crude oil inventories are reported to have increased by 567Mbbls over the last week. However, there were continued product draws, with gasoline and distillate stocks falling by 4.22MMbbls and 949Mbbls respectively. The tightening in the US gasoline market will raise concerns over supply as we move into driving season. Tightness in the US is pulling in gasoline from elsewhere, including Europe, which is also looking increasingly tight. The US energy secretary has also not ruled out restricting petroleum exports, given rising prices. Up until now the US administration has been reluctant to go down this route and instead has focused on releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.  Whilst these releases may offer some relief to crude oil prices, they may do little to ease gasoline shortages if the bottleneck is on the refining side. It’s looking unlikely that differences over an EU ban on Russian oil imports will be resolved at next week’s meeting of EU leaders. The Hungarian Prime Minister has reportedly said that meetings on 30 and 31 May would not be an appropriate place to discuss the ban, whilst the European Commission President has also made similar comments. Therefore, the uncertainty over a Russian oil ban looks as though it will hang over markets for quite a bit longer. We continue to believe that the EU will eventually agree on a ban and, assuming it is not too different to the current proposal, we would expect  the move to be supportive for prices, particularly over 2H22. Austrian Gas Grid Management (AGGM) announced the results of its recent purchase tender for natural gas for strategic reserves. The tender attracted 189 bids, which ended up seeing AGGM buying 7.7TWh of storage at an average price of EUR124.50/MWh including storage costs through until April 2023. This price is well above the current prompt price in Europe of around EUR85/MWh.  Austrian gas storage levels are well below average at the moment - inventories are 29% full compared to a 5-year average of almost 45% at this stage of the year. EU allowances saw somewhat of a recovery yesterday, following the weakness seen over the past week due to EU plans to sell EUR20b worth of allowances from the Market Stability Reserve. The Dec-22 contract rallied by 4% yesterday to settle at EUR81.32/t, although it is still some distance from the more than EUR92/t we saw it trading at early last week. The catalyst for yesterday’s move appears to be comments from an EU official who was more supportive about the role that financial institutions play in the EU carbon market. This comes after the EU Parliament’s Environment Committee supported a proposal to restrict speculative activity in the EU carbon market. Agriculture There appears to be a growing trend of protectionist measures taken by governments around the world, given concerns over food security and inflationary pressures. After India recently surprised the market with a ban on wheat exports, the Indian government has now announced that it will limit sugar exports to 10mt in the current 2021/22 season, which ends in September. India is set to be the third-largest sugar exporter this season, behind Brazil and Thailand. The announcement is somewhat surprising, given that India has had a very strong sugarcane crop this season. However, as reflected in the price action, the market is not too concerned at the moment about this export limit, given that most in the market have been expecting Indian sugar exports this season to total around 9mt, so below the export limit. The bigger concern is that we see other countries taking similar action when it comes to agricultural commodity exports. Apart from the action taken by India, Malaysia is also set to ban chicken exports, whilst Indonesia has gone back and forth on a palm oil export ban. Read this article on THINK TagsSugar Russian oil ban Oil Natural gas EU carbon Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Powell signals Fed needs to be nimble, Canada Inflation hits near 40-year high, bitcoin tries to hold USD20k

Some EU Governments Are Still In Favour Of Banning Russian Brent Crude Oil, Investors Turning To Silver As Demand For Safe-Haven Assets Rise, Corn Prices Fall Amidst Easing Supply Concers

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 30.05.2022 15:52
Summary: Lockdowns in China ease causing demand for Brent Crude to rise. Silver prices increase as market participants seek safe-haven assets. Supply concerns around corn are easing. read next (XAUUSD) Gold Prices Rose For Second Consecutive Week, Concerns Around Crude Oil Supply Continues To Drive Price, Soybean Prices Rising  Brent Crude Oil prices continue to rise The combination of Beijing and Shanghai beginning to come out of Covid-19 restrictions over the weekend and the ongoing European discussions regarding banning crude oil imports from Russia are causing concerns around supply to tighten. On Monday and Tuesday an EU governments will use a summit to continue to argue in favour of an embargo on Russian crude. The prices of Crude oil are going into their sixth straight month of gains amidst the supply concerns, as demand begins to rise back up to pre-pandemic levels. Brent Crude Oil Price Chart Silver prices are still on the rise A weaker US Dollar continues to give room for the price of silver to rise. Amidst continuing geopolitical tensions and growing concerns regarding slower global growth, investors are turning more towards safe-haven assets. Silver is considered to be a hedge against inflation, the Fed is still expected to tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates further at their next two meetings. Silver Jul ‘22 Futures Prices Corn prices are falling The price of corn futures fell late in May, to the lowest value in almost six weeks amidst expectations of higher supply and the easing of trading restrictions between major producers. Beijing and Brazil reached an agreement to begin corn exports from Brazil to China, after years of talks. In addition, actual planting of corn exceeded market expectations. The easing of supply concerns is slowly driving the price of corn futures down. Corn Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Analysis Of Situation Of Crude Oil Futures And WTI

Brent Crude Oil Prices At 5 Week Lows, Silver Prices Affected By Aggressive Monetary Policy, New Concerns Around Corn Supplies

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 20.06.2022 11:50
Summary: The international oil benchmark fell around 6% on Friday. Silver fell below the $22 per-ounce mark on Friday, closing at its lowest level since June 2020. Failed negotiations between Russia and the Ukraine. Read next: Coffee Prices Rising Amidst Tight Supply Concerns, WTI Oil Facing Its First Weekly Decline Since Mid-April, Platinum Prices At 6 Week Low  Brent Crude Oil prices remain supported Brent Crude Oil prices fell to almost 5 week lows on Monday amidst concerns around slowing global economic growth and fuel demand which outweighed expectations of higher near-term consumption and ongoing supply issues. The international oil benchmark fell around 6% on Friday amidst concerns of global economic fallouts from higher interest rates shook financial markets. U.S Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm warned markets of a “continued upward pull on demand” over the weekend, and of the likelihood of high gasoline prices continuing. Crude prices have been supported by the war in the Ukraine, civil unrest in Libya and OPEC’s failure to pump more oil. Brent Crude Oil Price Chart Silver prices close below $22 per-ounce Silver fell below the $22 per-ounce mark on Friday, closing at its lowest level since June 2020, in the wake of bets of more aggressive monetary policy tightening by central banks steered investors away from the non-yield metal. Silver Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn prices rising amidst new concerns around supply Corn prices rose to 4 week highs in mid-June amidst new concerns around grain supplies. Talks between Russia and the Ukraine, two of the largest grain exporters, around resuming Ukrainian exports failed, despite Turkish efforts to negotiate a safe corridor for the grain stuck at Black Sea ports. Meanwhile, Brazil and Beijing reached an agreement after years of negotiation to start corn exports from Brazil to China. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Eyes On Iran Nuclear Deal: Oil Case. Gold Price Is Swinging

Concerns Over Tight Supplies Is Driving Brent Crude Oil Prices Up, Silver Prices Falling, Favourable Weather, Weak Demand & Tight Supplies - Factors Driving Corn Prices

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 04.07.2022 15:54
Summary: Concerns around tight Brent supplies outweighed concerns around a global recession dampening demand. Silver prices falling in the wake of an aggressive Fed. Traders weighed weak demand and favourable weather prospects against fears of tight supplies. Read more: Gold Futures Fell To Near 7 Week Lows, Investors Weighing Supply v Demand For WTI Crude, Platinum Prices  Brent Crude Oil prices are up on Monday Brent crude oil prices are up on Monday as concerns around tight supplies outweighed concerns around a global recession dampening demand. A Reuters survey showed that output from 10 OPEC members fell during June. In addition, exports from Libya also declined below expected levels and Norway's daily output is expected to decline due to a planned strike by Norwegian energy sector workers. Brent Crude Futures Price Chart Silver prices reaching 2 year lows Silver prices have been consistently declining to prices not seen since July of 2020, as they close in toward the $20 per-ounce mark. The price declines come in the wake of aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve to try to control high inflation levels which caused investors to turn away from the non-yielding metal. The Fed has reiterated their commitment to fighting inflation, setting expectations for a back-to-back 75 bps interest rate hike in July. Silver Sept ‘22 Futures Price Chart Investors weighing weak demand and favourable weather against tight supply fears Corn prices hovered around $7.5 per bushel as traders weighed weak demand and favourable weather prospects against fears of tight supplies. More corn crop has been planted than the March recordings, the crop flourished in its early stages of development after a late start to planting, this is due to the wet and cool conditions around most of the Midwest. Meanwhile, traders are watching the weather forecasts for the coming weeks as the corn enters its pollination phase which will determine the yields during the harvest that starts in September. At the same time, aggressive monetary tightening is raising fears of economic slowdown and demand destruction is causing concerns around demand for the grain. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
Corn Prices Recorded Their Biggest Weekly Gain, Gold Demand In India May Suffer A Temporary Setback

Aggressive Fed Increases The Opportunity Cost OF Holding Silver, WTI Crude Oil Prices, Corn: Traders Weigh Weak Demand & Tight Supply

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 08.07.2022 13:07
Summary: Aggressive Fed turning investors away from silver Lower demand prospects outweigh tight supply concerns for WTI Crude Oil. Commodity traders are watching weather in top growing corn regions. Read next: Platinum Prices Drop In The Wake Of Slower Demand Prospects, RBOB Gasoline Prices, Wheat Prices Below Pre-Russian Invasion Levels  Silver Prices hitting July 2020 lows. Silver prices are staying below the $20 mark per ounce, a level that has not been seen since July 2020. The price decline comes in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s committing to aggressive monetary policy tightening and raising interest rates further, this move causes investors to short the non-yielding metal. The Fed has set markt expectations for back-to-back 75 bps rate hikes in July. This move has Put a floor under prices where lingering concerns about slowing economic growth, mainly in Europe, as surging gas prices threaten the outlook for the Euro bloc. Silver Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Lower demand prospects outweigh tight supply concerns for WTI Crude Oil The price of crude futures are expected to close low on Friday as concerns around a global recession and its impact on the demand for crude oil outweighs the concerns around tight-supplies. The US oil benchmark has declined by 5% this week, tracking a broader decline in commodity markets in the wake of restrictive monetary policy among major economies threatening a global recession. Crude prices are still up 35% this year as global economic recovery coincided with Russia’s invasion in the Ukraine. WTI Crude Aug Futures Price Chart Corn prices Corn futures prices are currently hovering as the market weighs up favourable weather conditions and weak demand over tighter supply prospects. Weather conditions in top corn growing regions are being watched closely by traders. On the demand side, the combination of weak economic global data and aggressive monetary tightening from central banks is raising fears of a economic slowdown. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
US and European Equity Futures Mixed Amid Economic Concerns and Yield Surge

Recession Fears Are Affecting Brent Crude Prices, Silver Price vs A Hawkish Federal Reserve, Corn At 8-Week Highs

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 11.07.2022 16:00
Summary: Fears of a global recession are expected to dampen energy demand. Aggressive Fed prospects driving silver demand down. Hot weather conditions affecting corn growing prospects. Read next: Aggressive Fed Increases The Opportunity Cost OF Holding Silver, WTI Crude Oil Prices, Corn: Traders Weigh Weak Demand & Tight Supply  Concerns around demand driving Brent Crude Oil Prices down Brent Crude Oil futures fell during Monday trading after posting a loss last week in volatile trading in the wake of fears around a global recession and new COVID 19 virus restrictions in China, both of which outweighed fears around supply. Fears of a global recession are expected to dampen energy demand and continue to rule over market sentiment as major central banks continue to fight inflation through aggressive monetary policy interest rate hikes. In addition, a new omicron variant of COVID-19 has been discovered in Shanghai and has heightened fears of further restrictions. At the same time, market participants remain unsure about the western nations plans to cap Russian oil prices as Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that further sanctions could lead to "catastrophic" consequences within the global energy market. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Silver prices hover around $20 per ounce Silver prices are still sitting around the $20 per ounce mark, a level that has not been seen since July 2020. The price drop comes in the wake of stronger bets of a more aggressive Federal Reserve to increase interest rates in an attempt to reign in sky-high inflation. Silver is normally used as a hedge against inflation, however as treasury yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding silver rises. Silver Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn futures rose to 8-week highs Corn Futures have risen on Monday to 8-week highs and not far from the 10 year high hit in April. The price rose in the wake of concerns around tighter supplies amid an already short supply market that has been caused by the Russia-Ukraine war. Hot weather conditions in the US and European growing belt have nullified the price drop during the last trading week. At the same time, Chinese import demand also increased. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Recession Fears Continue To Weigh On The Commodity Market: Coffee, Palladium & WTI Crude

Recession Fears Continue To Weigh On The Commodity Market: Coffee, Palladium & WTI Crude

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 13.07.2022 14:23
Summary: WTI Crude Prices falling. Concerns about weakening coffee demand. Fears of fresh Covid lockdown measures in China persist. Read next: Demand Is Rising For NGAS, Strong Supply Prospects For Cotton, Investors Turn To The US Dollar As An Inflation Hedge Instead Of Gold  WTI Crude Oil Falling WTI Crude futures tumbled around 8% during Tuesday's trading day as traders continued to weigh weakening demand, recession fears and China’s most recent covid-19 outbreaks. In addition investors are awaiting the latest US Inflation data release which could bolster the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy tightening and thus heighten fears of a recession. At the same time US crude inventories have reportedly risen by 4.76 million barrels during the previous trading week. WTI Crude Oil Futures Aug Price Chart Coffee Prices have been falling Coffee Futures have been trading lower amidst fears that the economic slowdown will negatively affect demand whilst supply remains stable. Coffee exports have risen, however Brazil is behind their year-on-year harvest. Coffee Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Palladium prices 35% down Palladium prices are 35% down from their all time high hit in March earlier this year in the wake of new concerns around weak demand from China which has overshadowed the persisting fears around tight supplies. A new omicron variant found in China has heightened fears of fresh Covid lockdown measures in Shanghai which could further damage economic growth and put a dent in the demand for the metal from the world's largest consumer. Palladium Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Russia Look Set To Double Its Exports For The First Half Of 2023

Platinum Prices Touchine 22-month Lows, RBOB Gasoline, Wheat Consumption Expected To Decrease

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 14.07.2022 14:17
Summary: The market expects lower demand for Platinum. Wheat Futures are approaching near four-month lows. Expensive Gasoline prices are keeping summer drivers off the road. Read next: Recession Fears Continue To Weigh On The Commodity Market: Coffee, Palladium & WTI Crude  Platinum prices are falling Platinum futures are touching 22 month lows as prospects of lower demand outweighed prospects outweighed supply concerns. Higher than expected US inflation data increased expectations of tighter and more aggressive monetary policy. In addition, the fresh new Covis cases in China are causing demand expectations to fall. Supplies are also expected to remain low as supply shipments from Russia disruptions continue. In addition, during June Britain sanctioned the chief executive and principal shareholder of Nornickel, Vladimir Potanin. Nornickel is the 3rd largest producer of the metal. Platinum Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Wheat supplies are expected recover Wheat Futures are approaching near four-month lows, and extending is move away from pre-Russian invasion levels receiving support from a stronger supply outlook. The combination of a forecast that reflected a decrease in consumption for the rest of the world for the 2022/23 marketing year as well as new data from the USDA’s supply and demand report pointed to a sharp increase in the supply, exports, and ending stocks of wheat in the United States. At the same time, concerns around a worldwide recession led the consumption estimated to be revised downward. Chicago Wheat Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline Expensive Gasoline prices are keeping more drivers off the road in the US than at the height of the pandemic. Gasoline demand tumbled last week, below the same week in 2020 and to the lowest (seasonally) since 1996. The numbers now paint a clearer picture of demand faltering amid mounting concerns over a wider economic slowdown. RBOB Gasoline Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Crude Oil Ended Higher | Initial Jobless Claims Rose Marginally

UK Oil Benchmark Fell 5%, Price Of Silver Reaching July 2020 Lows, Corn Commodities

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 18.07.2022 16:31
Summary: Corn commodities and the agricultural market. OPEC+ and Saudi ministers. Aggressive Fed driving silver demand down Brent Crude Oil prices Investors are trying to deal with tighter supplies as risk appetite has seemingly returned to the markets, driving the price of Brent crude up. Ministers in Saudi Arabia insisted that future policy decisions would be made in accordance with the August 3rd OPEC+ meeting and with keeping market dynamics in mind. In addition, Libya indicated their oil ports and fields will begin functioning again and electricity output will increase after months of outages. Diesel and Gasoline demand fell during the first half of July in India due to seasonal rainfalls. The UK oil benchmark fell 5% and has been on the decline since the middle of June due to growing recession concerns. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Silver affected by aggressive monetary policy tightening Silver prices have been falling to their lowest level since July 2020 amidst concerns around demand in China and an aggressive monetary policy tightening Federal Reserve who are committed to fighting sky-high inflation. The reiteration from the Fed around their determination to control sky-high inflation has expectations for a July interest rate hike set at 75 basis points. Silver Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn Commodities falling to 5 week lows Corn commodities have been extending their decline to almost 5 week lows tracking a broader decline within the agricultural commodity market. Corn production forecasts for the 2022/2023 years were revised upwards by 45 million bushels in the United States due to greater harvesting and planting areas. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Powell signals Fed needs to be nimble, Canada Inflation hits near 40-year high, bitcoin tries to hold USD20k

Concerns Around Russia Halting Gas Flows To Europe Are Growing, Rebounding Cotton Prices, Gold Prices Threatened By Ongoing Economic Uncertainty

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 19.07.2022 14:12
Summary: NGAS prices are rising amidst supply concerns. Risk of gold experiencing further declines. India’s monsoon season and cotton prices. Read next: IBM Beat Market Earnings Expectations For Their Second Quarter  Natural Gas Prices Rise NGAS futures have risen to levels that have not been seen in more than a month, amidst a demand that has been driven by weather, whilst simultaneously the uncertainty around supply of gas in the Eurozone kept demand for US LNG exports supported. In Europe, fears have been growing around the possibility that Russia will cut gas flows to the continent and jeopardize the EU’s goal to fill 80% of their storage capacity by the next winter season. Reuters has recently reported that Russia's Gazprom has informed its European customers that it cannot guarantee gas supplies due to 'extraordinary' circumstances, a move that Europe describes as retaliation for sanctions imposed on Moscow for invading Ukraine. NGAS Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold Futures Close To one year lows Gold prices have been remaining close to its lowest levels in almost a year and have been facing constant downward pressure from aggressive US monetary policy tightening and a stronger US Dollar which became increasingly more attractive than the non-yielding metal in serving as a hedge against ongoing economic uncertainty. Gold futures also struggled to hold their intraday gains on Monday despite the dollar’s retreat, which was considered as a technical weakness by analysts and in fact could increase the risk of gold experiencing further declines. Gold Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton prices rebounded Cotton prices have rebounded since touching nine-month lows on July 14th as speculators in the commodity market took advantage of the lower prices and the monsoon season in India, the top producer. At the same time investors continue to digest the USDA’s July supply and demand report. Cotton Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
S&P 500 Amongst Major Indexes That Are Rising, Markets Are Waiting For Thursdays ECB Policy Decision

S&P 500 Amongst Major Indexes That Are Rising, Markets Are Waiting For Thursdays ECB Policy Decision

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 20.07.2022 23:47
Summary: S&P 500 supported by tech stocks Euro in focus Read next: WTI Crude Oil Prices Are Under Pressure, Coffee Prices Supported By Drier Weather Conditions, Palladium Futures  S&P 500 ends Tuesday in the green The positive earnings from both Tesla and Netflix that were reported on Thursday and Wednesday respectively has offered support to many tech stocks, driving the S&P 500 and other Tech stocks into the green. This move followed a rally on Tuesday that saw an overall increase of 2% across major indexes. Investors will remain focused on the corporate earnings season in the coming days and weeks, which, despite concerns around a global recession, expectations around this earnings season have been almost completely rewritten. S&P 500 Price Chart Euro Stole headlines on Wednesday European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision due on Thursday. The Euro is still facing uncertainty regarding high inflation in the Eurozone and how the ECB plans to tackle it, in addition as the Noord Stream 1 opens after its routine maintenance period, there are still concerns as to whether Russia will open the gas taps. The recovery of the Euro against the dollar could be reflecting a possible market inflection point. The Euro has recovered half of its July losses so far, this could mean a turn around against the Dollar for many other major currencies aswell. The Euro stole the headlines on Wednesday as both Bloomberg News and Reuters reported that the market could see an outsized interest rate yield rise from the European Central Bank on Thursday. Sources: FXmag.com, finance.yahoom.com
Powell signals Fed needs to be nimble, Canada Inflation hits near 40-year high, bitcoin tries to hold USD20k

Platinum Futures Nearing 21-month Lows, Wheat, RBOB Gasoline Prices Falling

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.07.2022 14:49
Summary: Weaker demand prospects for platinum outshine supply concerns. Russian grain and fertilizers will not be sanctioned by the US. RBOB Gasoline. Read next: Altcoins: renBTC (RENBTC) - What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into the renBTC (RENBTC) Platform  Platinum Prices are hitting 21 month lows Platinum prices are nearing 21 month lows as concerns around weakening demand outshone supply concerns. Higher than expected inflation numbers drove up expectations for more aggressive monetary policy tightening and heightened fears of a global economic recession. In addition, the demand from the top-consumer, China, is expected to fall in the wake of newly imposed lockdown regulations, which is also expected to hurt economic activity. At the same time, supply from Russia is expected to remain subdued due to the war in the Ukraine. Platinum Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Wheat futures prices returning to normal levels Chicago Wheat futures hit a one week high on July 20th but have since returned down to somewhat normal levels that were seen before Russia invaded the Ukraine amidst prospects of higher supplies. USDA forecasts show the levels predicted that supply, exports and ending stocks in the US are going to increase sharply and a decrease in consumption around the world. In addition, strong Russian harvest and lower export taxes expectations aided in the bearishness, this eased shortage relief when the US announced that Russian grains and fertilizers will not be sanctioned. Chicago Wheat Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline Gasoline futures fell to levels that have not been seen since April 25th, this fall comes in the wake of concerns around weakening demand. In addition, according to the EIA, domestic inventory levels increased well above market expectations. Gasoline consumption levels are standing around those of the first year of the pandemic, but lower than every year going back to 2000. RBOB Gasoline Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Corn Prices Recorded Their Biggest Weekly Gain, Gold Demand In India May Suffer A Temporary Setback

The West Is Trying To Control Brent Crude Prices, Global Corn Supply Concerns, Fed Gears Up For Another Interest Rate Hike

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 25.07.2022 15:41
Summary: Concerns around a demand-shifting global recession continue. Concerns around global supply of corn have been somewhat alleviated. China demand concerns and aggressive interest rate hikes. Read next: Altcoins: GALA (GALA) - What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into the GALA (GALA) Platform  Brent Crude Oil Futures Brent crude prices rose from their daily lows of about $103 to around $104 per barrel as concerns about a demand-draining global recession were dispelled by a tight global market and the potential for further supply disruptions. The West is developing a strategy to control the price of Russian crude as retaliation for Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Additionally, despite the fact that a top US energy envoy expressed confidence that major producers have spare capacity and are likely to increase supplies, Biden was unable to win a commitment from Arab leaders to pump more oil. A persistent worry that an aggressive tightening from major central banks could plunge economies into a recession and consequently affect oil consumption kept prices in check. Brent Crude Futures Price Chart Corn Prices Following the USDA weekly report that indicated a steady state of the U.S. crop in its crucial pollination phase, alleviating concerns about global supplies, corn futures held close to the 8-month low level below $6 per bushel. Additionally, the agency maintained its rating of 64 percent of the American corn crop as being in good to exceptional condition from the previous week. The report also noted that while dryness lingers in western regions despite expectations for rising temperatures, weekend rainfall in the eastern Midwest benefitted crops. The USDA increased its predictions for global maize ending inventories to 313.0 million tons in its monthly report published on July 12th, an increase of 2.5 million tons from last month's forecasts. Corn Sept ‘22 Futures Price Chart Silver Futures As persistent concerns about demand in China and aggressive tightening by major central banks to control sky-high inflation continue to scare investors away from the non-yielding metal, silver stabilized around $18.7 an ounce, staying close to its lowest level since July 2020. Following a similar move in June, the Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to deliver a 75 basis point rate increase this week, raising borrowing costs to their highest level since 2019. Additionally, the ECB increased policy rates by 50 basis points last week, which was more than expected, and the BoE is likely to do the same thing the following week. The dollar has been pushed higher by safe-haven movements brought on by uncertainty in global growth. Silver Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Chile's Lithium Nationalization and the Global Trend of Resource Nationalism: Implications for EV Supply Chains and Efforts to Strengthen Battery Metal Supply

NGAS Prices Rising, Cotton Demand Falling, Gold Prices Rising As Recession Fears Rise

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.07.2022 11:22
Summary: Cooling demand increases as summer progresses. Low cotton demand driving prices down. Recents dollar weakening drives gold price upward/ Read next: Altcoins: Filecoin (FIL) - What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into the Filecoin (FIL) Platform  Natural Gas US natural gas futures surged beyond the $8.8/MMBtu threshold, edging closer to a 14-year high of $9.5/MMBtu achieved in early May on expectations of a growing need for cooling as the country's weather continues to be hotter than typical. The optimistic prognosis is further boosted by the soaring global demand. Due to turbine problems, Russia's Gazprom announced it will decrease flows via the Nord Stream pipeline, providing only 33 million cubic meters per day, or about 20 percent of its capacity, forcing European consumers to find alternative sources of energy. Additionally, utilities only added 34 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas to underground storage last week, significantly less than the 47 bcf median market expectation, according to the most recent EIA weekly inventory data. NGAS Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton futures trading near 10-month lows The price of cotton futures on the ICE traded close to a 10-month low of 100 cents a pound as traders weighed concerns about poor demand against the possibility of lower production. Amid prospects of dry weather in Texas, the most recent USDA supply and demand report indicated reduced forecasts for output, exports, and ending stocks in the US for the 2022–2023 year compared to projections made last month. In addition, the pink bollworm pest, another major threat to cotton crops in India, attacked in Punjab and Haryana earlier than predicted this year as a result of the lack of moisture during the early stages of the planting season. Fears of a global economic slowdown are expected to reduce demand for non-essential clothes and fabric products. Cotton Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold prices rise along with recession fears After losing 0.4 percent the day before, gold increased to about $1,725 an ounce on Tuesday as recessionary fears increased. The safe-haven metal gained from recent weakening in the dollar and US Treasury yields. This week, the US Federal Reserve is anticipated to deliver a further rate increase of 75 basis points, taking the lead in the worldwide fight against inflation that some feared might push the greatest economy on the planet into recession. As monetary conditions become more constrained and threaten to affect global demand, other significant central banks are anticipated to join the US central bank in raising interest rates quicker. Recent figures from the US and Europe already indicate that economic activity is weakening, while China narrowly avoided a second-quarter loss. In the meantime, gold prices stayed about Gold Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Palladium Prices Falling Amidst Weaker Demand Prospects, WTI Crude Oil Stockpile Inventory Came In Below Expectations, Coffee Futures

Palladium Prices Falling Amidst Weaker Demand Prospects, WTI Crude Oil Stockpile Inventory Came In Below Expectations, Coffee Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 27.07.2022 17:14
Summary: Palladium prices are falling. US crude stockpile inventory came in lower than expected. Coffee output expected to come in lower. Read next: Altcoins: Harmony (ONE) - What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into the Harmony (ONE) Platform  Palladium prices drop amidst weaker demand prospects Palladium prices held steady near the six-month low of $2000 per tonne as expectations of a weaker demand overcame concerns about a supply shortage. As a result of increasing interest rates around the world, frequent lockdowns in China, a major customer, and other factors, the market for the metal is expected to fall. Concerns about supply disruptions from Russia, the metal's largest supplier, continue to exist on the supply side as the conflict in Ukraine shows no indications of coming to an end. Vladimir Potanin, a Russian tycoon who owns a 36% share in Nornickel, the largest palladium manufacturer in the world, was recently sanctioned by Britain. Palladium Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart WTI Crude Oil prices On Wednesday, WTI crude futures oscillated back around $95.7 per barrel as traders considered inventory levels against a backdrop of doubt on the demand outlook. Government statistics confirmed Tuesday's industry reports that US crude oil stockpiles dropped by more than 4 million barrels last week, far more than the median estimate of a million barrel loss. Additionally, the draw in gasoline supplies of 3.3 million barrels substantially above forecasts of a 0.9 million barrel reduction. Concerns that a transition to oil would be forced by decreased gas supplies from Russia to Germany through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline support the optimistic sentiment. The White House announced the sale of an additional 20 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves on the supply side. Last but not least, caution prevailed amid ongoing worries over a potential impending recession ahead of the Federal Reserve's anticipated 75 bps rate hike later in the day. WTI Crude Oil Futures Sep Price Chart Coffee Futures Due to limited stocks and ongoing worries about declining coffee yields in top producer Brazil, Arabica coffee futures on the ICE were trading above the $2 per pound threshold. According to the most recent data, ICE-monitored coffee inventories have reached a 23-year low of 712,817 bags. Given the bullish outlook for the commodity, additional upward momentum could be anticipated this year. Coffee recently hit a nearly 10-year high of $2.6. From a previous projection of a +1.2 mln bag surplus, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) has reduced its global 2020/21 supply estimate to a deficit of -3.13 mln bags. Additionally, ICO downgraded its projections for worldwide output while highlighting stronger global consumption. Coffee Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Corn Prices Recorded Their Biggest Weekly Gain, Gold Demand In India May Suffer A Temporary Setback

Commodities: Poor Corn Crop Supporting Prices, Brent Crude Prices, Silver Prices Rising

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 01.08.2022 14:46
Summary: OPEC+ meeting on Wednesday. Corn crop health is poor. Silver prices are rising. Read next: Altcoins: Harmony (ONE) - What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into the Harmony (ONE) Platform  Brent Crude Oil prices After dropping for two consecutive months, Brent crude futures dipped around $103 per barrel on Monday as a deteriorating forecast for global demand overcame indications of continued supply constraints. The world's top oil importer, China, surprisingly experienced a decline in factory activity in July as a result of Covid-19 flare-ups and a dimming global outlook, according to official data released over the weekend. The US economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter, according to data released last week. Rising inflation and additional monetary tightening are projected to keep growth in check. Libya's oil minister, Mohamed Oun, told Bloomberg that after a string of interruptions, the nation's production had returned to normal at 1.2 million barrels per day. Markets are now anticipating the OPEC+ meeting on Wednesday, where it is anticipated that it will maintain its policy of moderate supply increases in the face of capacity limitations and underinvestment in oil fields, maintaining the tight global supply. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Poor corn crop health After the USDA's weekly report revealed poor crop health amid heatwaves in the Midwest and plains, corn futures increased to a 1-week high of almost $6 per bushel. The agency gave the U.S. maize crop a satisfactory to exceptional condition rating of 61%, far below than experts' expectations and down from 64% a week earlier. The crop that will be harvested in September is likely to suffer from the hot, dry weather that was present during key corn pollination. However, despite higher supply predictions from the USDA for 2022–2023 and negative demand prospects brought on by rising recession fears, corn is still close to its 8-month low of $5.9 set on July 5th. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Silver prices rising Following other precious metals, silver prices increased above $20 per ounce after the Federal Reserve continued its tightening course with a 75 basis point increase in interest rates at its July meeting. The action increased the momentum of major central banks' tightening policies since inflation in the biggest economies in the world has not yet peaked. The ECB increased policy rates by 50 basis points, which was more than predicted, and the BoE is likely to do the same thing the following week. Prices are still very close to the $18.1 two-year low that was reached earlier this month as worries about an economic downturn drove investors to the US dollar. Silver Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
Central Banks' Rates Outlook: Fed Treads Cautiously, ECB Prepares for Hike

NGAS Prices Remain Elevated, Cotton Shortage Anticipated By Companies, Gold Supported By Dropping Dollar

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 02.08.2022 17:18
Summary: NGAS prices remain supported by increasing demand expectations. Indian cotton crops are threatened. Falling US Dollar and lower Treasury yields supporting gold prices. Read next: 5 Cryptocurrencies To Keep A Watch On: Axie Infinity (AXS), SHIBA-INU (SHIB), Klaytn (KLAY), Sandbox (SAND), Chronoly (CRNO)  NGAS demand expected to fall US natural gas futures continued to decline below the $8/MMBtu barrier due to pressure from record supply levels as domestic producers profited from higher prices. Still, strong domestic and foreign demand continues to sustain the NYMEX complex's fundamentals. Prices have been supported by expectations of an increase in cooling demand due to the United States' above-average temperatures and by Europe's sustained strong demand despite a 20 percent reduction in Nord Stream pipeline gas flows. For refusing to accept its demand for payment for natural gas in Russian rubles, Russia has already stopped exports to Denmark, Finland, Bulgaria, the Netherlands, and Poland and cut supply to Germany. Natural Gas Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Companies are anticipating a cotton shortage Due to active buying from weavers, cotton futures on ICE reached 102 cents per pound, the highest level in more than 2 weeks. As companies anticipate a shortage of cotton yarn during the current cotton season, which runs until September 2022, higher production in the fabric and apparel segments and slower production in the spinning mills encouraged purchase. Additionally, the USDA noted decreased projections for US output, exports, and ending stocks for the years 2022–2023 in its July monthly report due to the possibility of dry weather in Texas. The pink bollworm pest, which this year attacked earlier than anticipated in Punjab and Haryana due to the lack of rainfall in the early part of the planting season, is another threat to cotton crops in India. Despite the fact that the global recession is expected to reduce demand for luxuries like apparel and fabric goods, cotton is still 35 percent below the 11-year high of 158 cents/pound reached in May. Cotton Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold demand boosted by low treasury yields and a falling dollar Tuesday saw gold trading above $1,770 per ounce and hanging at its best levels in four weeks as demand for bullion was boosted by a dropping dollar and low Treasury yields. The Federal Reserve may hike interest rates less aggressively in the upcoming months as a result of recent weakness in US economic statistics, which pressured the dollar and US yields while raising gold prices. As fresh US data continue to show an economic slowdown, this trend is anticipated to last throughout August. Demand for gold as a safe haven was also fueled by weaker manufacturing statistics across major economies and escalating tensions between China and the US before US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Palladium Prices Touching Two-Week Highs, OPEC+ Increasing Crude Supply Of WTI Crude Oil, Coffee Supply Outlook Seemingly Poor

Palladium Prices Touching Two-Week Highs, OPEC+ Increasing Crude Supply Of WTI Crude Oil, Coffee Supply Outlook Seemingly Poor

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 03.08.2022 15:15
Summary: EIA data due later today. Concerns around shipping Palladium from Russia persist. ICO downgraded its projections for worldwide output while highlighting stronger global consumption. Read more: 5 Cryptocurrencies To Keep A Watch On: Axie Infinity (AXS), SHIBA-INU (SHIB), Klaytn (KLAY), Sandbox (SAND), Chronoly (CRNO)  WTI Crude Oil After it was revealed that OPEC+ would only increase crude supply by 100,000 bpd for the following month, WTI crude futures reversed early losses to rise more than 1% to $96 per barrel. While in Saudi Arabia last month, US President Joe Biden urged OPEC to enhance production, but due to capacity issues and some member states' failure to achieve output targets, it seemed unlikely that there would be a large increase in supplies. In July, OPEC increased its daily oil production by 310,000 barrels, with only Saudi Arabia and the UAE reportedly having some remaining production capacity. EIA data that will be made public later today should shed some light on how a downturn in the economy would affect demand. WTI Crude Oil Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Palladium touching two-week highs Palladium futures increased to their highest level in over two weeks, approaching $2100 a tonne, as significant dollar-denominated commodity buying increased in response to a halt in the dollar's rally. After the Fed chair reduced expectations for more large rate hikes while lifting the interest rate as widely anticipated, the US dollar stayed near 2-month lows. As the situation in Ukraine shows no signs of ending, worries about shipping problems from Russia, the metal's primary supplier, continue to exist. Vladimir Potanin, a Russian tycoon who owns a 36% share in Nornickel, the largest palladium manufacturer in the world, was recently sanctioned by Britain. Palladium Spe ‘22 Futures Price Chart Coffee supply outlook seemingly poor Due to limited stocks and ongoing worries about declining coffee yields in top producer Brazil, Arabica coffee futures on the ICE were trading above the $2 per pound threshold. According to the most recent data, ICE-monitored coffee inventories have reached a 23-year low of 712,817 bags. Given the bullish outlook for the commodity, additional upward momentum could be anticipated this year. Coffee recently hit a nearly 10-year high of $2.6. From a previous projection of a +1.2 mln bag surplus, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) has reduced its global 2020/21 supply estimate to a deficit of -3.13 mln bags. Additionally, ICO downgraded its projections for worldwide output while highlighting stronger global consumption. Coffee Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconimics.com
Gold Retreated From It’s Daily Highs, Concerns Around WTI Crude Demand Continue, Tight Coffee Supplies Driving Prices

Gold Retreated From It’s Daily Highs, Concerns Around WTI Crude Demand Continue, Tight Coffee Supplies Driving Prices

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 05.08.2022 18:22
Summary: A higher than anticipated payroll report prompted market movements. Continued concerns around the demand for crude oil amidst economic recession fears. Coffee Futures. Gold Futures retreat from daily highs The combination of a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields caused gold to retreat from its daily highs of $1,795 an ounce to roughly $1,760 on Friday. Market movements were prompted by a payroll report that was higher than anticipated, which opened the door for the Federal Reserve to take an assertive posture to temper an overheating economy. Persistent worries about a worldwide economic slowdown and heightened US-China tensions over Taiwan acted as a floor under prices. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart WTI Crude Oil futures WTI crude futures were trading close to $89 a barrel, slightly up from the 6-month low of $87.5 recorded on Thursday, but still on track to lose over 10% weekly and erase all the gains brought about by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. There are growing worries that the demand would be significantly impacted by a worldwide economic recession. Official data revealed that US gasoline demand plummeted significantly below pre-Covid seasonal norms last week, while US crude inventories unexpectedly increased. Additionally, there are indications that supply is increasing because Libya's oil production increased for a second consecutive week. The decline this week also occurred in spite of Saudi Arabia hiking oil prices to record levels for Asian consumers and OPEC's decision to only slightly increase oil supply for September while announcing "severely constrained" spare capacity. WTI Crude Sep Futures Price Chart Coffee stocks limited Due to limited stocks and ongoing worries about declining coffee yields in top producer Brazil, Arabica coffee futures on the ICE were trading above the $2 per pound threshold. According to the most recent data, ICE-monitored coffee inventories have reached a 23-year low of 712,817 bags. Given the bullish outlook for the commodity, additional upward momentum could be anticipated this year. Coffee recently hit a nearly 10-year high of $2.6. From a previous projection of a +1.2 mln bag surplus, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) has reduced its global 2020/21 supply estimate to a deficit of -3.13 mln bags. Additionally, ICO downgraded its projections for worldwide output while highlighting stronger global consumption. Coffee Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
US and European Equity Futures Mixed Amid Economic Concerns and Yield Surge

Brent Crude Oil Price Falls With Demand Prospects, Poor Corn Crop Health In the Midwest, Silver Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 08.08.2022 19:42
Summary: China’s oil purchases are down 9.5% compared to a year ago. Poor Corn Crop health in the wake of extreme weather conditions. Fed continuing to stress the importance of keeping inflation low. Read next: 5 Cryptocurrencies To Keep A Watch On: DYDX (dydx), IOTA (MIOTA), Fusion (FSN), Komodo (KMD), OKB (OKEx)  Brent Crude Oil prices dropping as demand prospects fall Amid a dimming demand picture, Brent crude futures were trading around the $94 per barrel level. Refiners lowered inventories amidst a slower-than-anticipated demand rebound, according to data released over the weekend, which revealed that China, the biggest crude importer in the world, purchased 9.5% less oil in July than a year earlier. Last week's US government results were followed by weak Chinese data that indicated rising US crude stocks and falling gasoline consumption. Nevertheless, encouraging US labor and Chinese export statistics reduced some worries about a world recession that would sap demand. Brent Crude Futures Price Chart Corn prices close to 8-month lows After the USDA's weekly report revealed poor crop health amid heatwaves in the Midwest and plains, corn futures increased to a 1-week high of almost $6 per bushel. The agency gave the U.S. maize crop a satisfactory to exceptional condition rating of 61%, far below than experts' expectations and down from 64% a week earlier. The crop that will be harvested in September is likely to suffer from the hot, dry weather that was present during key corn pollination. Corn prices, however, are still close to an 8-month low of $5.9 set on July 5th due to USDA predictions for greater supplies in 2022–2023 and negative demand outlook brought on by escalating recession fears. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Silver prices remain subdued Ahead of this week's US inflation reading, silver futures remained steady at the $20.1 per ounce level, following other bullion to move slightly higher with a decline in risk sentiment. Even still, prices stayed below the $20.3 one-month high set earlier in the month as hawkish views for the Fed increased in the wake of numerous policymakers stressing the importance of bringing inflation down. More than twice as many jobs were added in the US economy in July as analysts had predicted, and the unemployment rate surprisingly crept down to 3.5%. The data caused markets to speculate that the Fed will raise rates by 75 basis points for the third time in a row at its upcoming meeting, which attracted investors to the US dollar and away from bullion. Silver Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Central Banks' Rates Outlook: Fed Treads Cautiously, ECB Prepares for Hike

Commodities: NGAS Declining Amidst Weaker Demand Prospects, Cotton Rising, Gold Futures Increasing

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 09.08.2022 15:09
Summary: NGAS prices declining amidst prospects of declining demand. Market expectations set at 75 bps rate hike for September. Cotton futures rising to 2 week highs. NGAS Futures US natural gas futures continued to decline below the $8.0/MMBtu barrier, under pressure from expectations that collapsing demand will ease as a result of cooler weather and record output levels as domestic producers profited from higher pricing. The gloomy prognosis was also strengthened by a larger-than-expected build in gas storage last week. The week ending July 29th saw US utilities add 41 billion cubic feet of gas to storage, much exceeding the forecast of 29 bcf. Additionally, Freeport LNG, a significant Texas export terminal, has reached an agreement with regulators to resume operations in October. As the crucial Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany is now operating at 20 percent capacity, demand from Europe is still helping to support prices. For refusing to accept its demand for payment for natural gas in Russian rubles, Russia has already stopped exports to Denmark, Finland, Bulgaria, the Netherlands, and Poland and cut supply to Germany. Natural Gas Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold Futures As investors anticipated US inflation data later this week that could provide additional hints on the Federal Reserve's rate hike trajectory, gold traded just around $1,790 an ounce on Tuesday after varying between $1,765 and $1,795 over the previous four days. The annual inflation rate is anticipated to have decreased from 9.1 percent in June to 8.7 percent, and a large surprise to the downside might trigger a surge in gold prices. According to a New York Federal Reserve study released on Monday, American consumers' expectations for inflation over the next year and the next three years have significantly decreased. The US economy unexpectedly added 528,000 jobs in July, which is more than double the 250,000 jobs that economists had forecast, according to figures released last week. The Fed will deliver another 75 basis point rate boost in September, according to market expectations. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton Futures Due to active buying from weavers, cotton futures on ICE reached 102 cents per pound, the highest level in more than 2 weeks. As companies anticipate a shortage of cotton yarn during the current cotton season, which runs until September 2022, higher production in the fabric and apparel segments and slower production in the spinning mills encouraged purchase. Additionally, the USDA noted decreased projections for US output, exports, and ending stocks for the years 2022–2023 in its July monthly report due to the possibility of dry weather in Texas. The pink bollworm pest, which this year attacked earlier than anticipated in Punjab and Haryana due to the lack of rainfall in the early part of the planting season, is another threat to cotton crops in India. Cotton Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
OPEC+ Meeting: Saudi Arabia Implements Deeper Voluntary Cuts to Boost Oil Prices

Coffee Prices Supported By Limited Stocks, Palladium Futures Reaching 2-week Highs, Upbeat IEA Report For US Crude Stocks

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 11.08.2022 13:21
Summary: IEA raised its global forecast for global oil consumption. Limited stocks and declining coffee yields. Palladium futures reaching 2 week highs. WTI Crude Oil As investors weighed a somewhat upbeat IEA report against a higher-than-anticipated rise in US stocks and the restart of oil flows on the Russia-to-Europe Druzhba pipeline, WTI crude futures were trading around the $92-per-barrel level. The International Energy Agency has increased its forecast for global oil consumption in 2022, citing increased gas-to-oil switching due to rising power and natural gas prices. The organization also predicts that by the beginning of next year, when the EU ban goes into effect, Russia's oil production will have decreased by close to 20%. On the other hand, according to EIA data, US crude stockpiles increased by 5.5 million barrels last week instead of the 73,000 barrels that analysts had predicted. Additionally, over the last four weeks, the US gasoline demand was 6% lower than it was a year ago. In the meantime, earlier this week, flows on the Russia-to-Europe Druzhba pipeline restarted, allaying some supply concerns. WTI Crude Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Coffee Futures Due to limited stocks and ongoing worries about declining coffee yields in top producer Brazil, Arabica coffee futures on the ICE were trading above the $2 per pound threshold. According to the most recent data, ICE-monitored coffee stocks hit a fresh 23-year low of 591,959 bags, which is the lowest level since 1999. Given the commodity's bright prognosis, more upward momentum could be anticipated this year. Coffee prices recently touched a nearly 10-year high of $2.6. From a previous projection of a +1.2 mln bag surplus, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) has reduced its global 2020/21 supply estimate to a deficit of -3.13 mln bags. Additionally, ICO downgraded its projections for worldwide output while highlighting stronger global consumption. Coffee Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Palladium Futures Palladium futures increased to their highest level in over two weeks, approaching $2100 a tonne, as significant dollar-denominated commodity buying increased in response to a halt in the dollar's rally. After the Fed chair reduced expectations for more large rate hikes while lifting the interest rate as widely anticipated, the US dollar stayed near 2-month lows. As the situation in Ukraine shows no signs of ending, worries about shipping problems from Russia, the metal's primary supplier, continue to exist. Vladimir Potanin, a Russian tycoon who owns 36% of Nornickel, the largest palladium manufacturer in the world, was recently sanctioned by Britain. Palladium Sep 22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Australia Is Expected To Produce A Bumper Year Of Crops

Platinum Futures Recovering, RBOB Gasoline Futures, Concerns Around Demand For Wheat Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 12.08.2022 16:47
Summary: The Fed may slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. Hot and dry weather jeopardizes wheat growth. Rising demand vs Limited supplies for gasoline. Platinum Futures Following a break in the dollar gain after Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested the possibility of reducing the pace of interest rate hikes amid contraction in the US economy, platinum futures touched $880 per tonne, recovering from a 22-month low of $844 recorded on July 14th. Foreign investors are enticed to purchase the dollar-denominated commodity by low-cost dollars. As the war in Ukraine rages and the West continues to impose economic sanctions on Russia, shipment interruptions from Russia are anticipated to keep the metal supplies lower. The Russian mining behemoth Nornickel's CEO and largest shareholder, Vladimir Potanin, was subject to sanctions earlier in June by the British government. Nornickel, with a 10% global output share, is the third-largest producer of platinum. Platinum Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Chicago wheat futures As a result of the hot and dry weather that jeopardized the yield in the ongoing harvests in the growing regions of North America and Europe, Chicago wheat futures inched up to $8 in August, lingering at levels not seen in a week. Traders are awaiting Friday's WASDE data to assess the potential impact of recession concerns on demand. Although grain supplies out of Black Sea ports continued, prices were still close to the six-month low of $7.5 reached earlier in the month and remained below levels before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. After an agreement between the Ukrainian and Russian delegations opened secure trade routes to ease the world food crisis, ships carrying Ukrainian grain resumed operations. It is anticipated that Ukraine will sell more than 20 million tonnes of grain that have reportedly collected in port silos since its invasion began on February 24 in addition to freeing up critical storage space for the next wheat harvest. Chicago Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline Futures As the market still needs to balance rising demand and limited supplies, gas and oil prices should increase through the end of the year, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. As industrial companies and power generators move away from more expensive natural gas, demand for crude is expected to increase. Consumption should increase as a result of the combination of relatively reduced prices and the ongoing reopening of economies. Lack of a gasoline and diesel inventory cushion at a time when refineries are entering their maintenance season worsens the supply outlook. RBOB Gasoline Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Corn Prices Recorded Their Biggest Weekly Gain, Gold Demand In India May Suffer A Temporary Setback

Brent Crude Oil Futures Prices Dropping, Silver Futures Falling, Poor Corn Crop Health Driving Prices

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 15.08.2022 17:33
Summary: Brent futures prices falling. Dovish fed may be improbable. Corn crop health looks dim. Brent Crude Oil consumption outlook dampened On Monday, Brent oil futures dropped another 5% to roughly $93 per barrel, closing in on February lows of $91 reached earlier this year as worries about a protracted recession impacted on the outlook for energy consumption. China, the world's largest oil importer, saw industrial production growth fall short of forecasts, indicating a slow rebound from the stringent Covid lockdowns at the end of the second quarter. The OPEC anticipated a fall in oil consumption and an increase in oil production, which disputed the opposite views from the IEA citing gas-to-oil switching for power generation. The state-run IRNA reported that Iran could accept the EU's offer to renew the Iranian nuclear deal, giving rise to hopes for more shipments from Iran in the meantime. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Silver Futures falling despite indications of slowing inflation A strengthening dollar scared investors away from the non-yielding commodity, and silver futures slid from a peak of approximately $20.9 to a low of around $20 per ounce. Despite indications that inflation was slowing, the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening agenda was still backed by the markets. Last week, a number of Fed policymakers noted that a dovish flip is improbable. For hints about the central bank's rate path, other speeches this week and the FOMC minutes release due on Wednesday are now widely anticipated. Silver Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Poor Corn crop health driving prices After the USDA's weekly report revealed poor crop health amid heatwaves in the Midwest and plains, corn futures increased to a 1-week high of almost $6 per bushel. The agency gave the U.S. maize crop a good to exceptional condition rating of 61%, significantly lower than experts' expectations and a drop from the previous week's rating of 64%. The crop that will be harvested in September is likely to suffer from the hot, dry weather that was present during key corn pollination. However, despite higher supply predictions from the USDA for 2022–2023 and negative demand prospects brought on by rising recession fears, corn is still close to its 8-month low of $5.9 set on July 5th. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Chile's Lithium Nationalization and the Global Trend of Resource Nationalism: Implications for EV Supply Chains and Efforts to Strengthen Battery Metal Supply

NGAS Prices Touching Near 14-year Highs, Cotton Futures Rising, Gold Futures Weighed Down By Hawkish Federal Reserve

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 16.08.2022 16:32
Summary: NGAS futures are trading close to 14-year highs. Decreased supply vs lower demand for cotton. Gold futures falling. Demand for NGAS rising US Natural Gas futures were trading close to a 14-year high of $9.75/MMBtu reached in late July, supported by robust domestic and international demand. US Natural Gas futures were trading around this price. This summer's high temperatures in the US have been accompanied by many heatwaves, which has increased demand for air conditioners. Freeport LNG, meanwhile, announced that it started bringing in very small amounts of natural gas from pipelines and that it just reached an agreement with authorities to partially restart operations at its shut-down export terminal in Texas in October. More natural gas will be taken out of storage once flows resume, which will increase exports. The fact that the crucial Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which runs from Russia to Germany, is currently operating at 20% capacity just makes matters worse. Demand from Europe is still high. NGAS Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton prices touching 7-week highs As traders weighed the chances of decreased supply against those of lower demand, cotton futures increased to levels above 120 USd/Lb, the highest in more than 7 weeks. According to the most recent USDA crop report, production for 2022–2023 will drop to 12.6 million bales, which would mark a decline from 2009–2010 levels. Additionally, the new output prediction is around 19% lower than 2021–2022. In the meantime, severe weather and pest attacks in important growing regions continue to threaten cotton crops in India, another key producer. Cotton Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold Futures weighed down by slowing GDP Expectations that the Federal Reserve would continue to rapidly raise interest rates despite evidence of softening inflation and slowing GDP caused gold prices to trade around $1,780 an ounce on Tuesday, down 1.3% from the previous session. Richmond Fed Bank President Thomas Barkin stated Friday in the most recent central bank commentary that the Fed will need to keep raising rates into "restrictive terrain" until he sees inflation persistently falling inside the target range for a considerable amount of time. Higher interest rates make owning non-yielding bullion more expensive, despite the fact that gold is regarded as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Coffee Prices Supported By Concerns Around Low Supplies, Palladium Reaching 2-week Highs, WTI Crude Oil Futures Hitting Lowest Levels Since February

Coffee Prices Supported By Concerns Around Low Supplies, Palladium Reaching 2-week Highs, WTI Crude Oil Futures Hitting Lowest Levels Since February

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 17.08.2022 16:56
Summary: WTI Crude prices under pressure. More upward momentum for coffee futures is expected. Palladium futures. WTI Crude Oil Futures A larger-than-expected drop in US crude stocks was more than offset by rising threats of a global recession and a potential increase in Iranian supply, which kept WTI crude futures under pressure at around $86 per barrel on Wednesday, the lowest since February. In response to a "final" draft agreement on renewing the 2015 nuclear agreement, the EU said on Tuesday that it was researching Iran's answer. Analysts predicted that a prospective deal might release approximately 2.5 million bpd of Iranian petroleum to the world markets. The potential of a worldwide economic slowdown, which may significantly affect energy demand, has also remained a concern for investors. Major central banks are expected to boost interest rates further to reduce inflation. According to a report from the industry, US crude stockpiles dropped by 448,000 barrels last week, compared to market expectations of a decline of 117,000 barrels. WTI Crude Oil Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Coffee predicted to rise due to low stocks Due to low stocks and ongoing worries about decreased coffee yields in leading producer Brazil, Arabica coffee futures on the ICE were trading at $2.2 per pound, a level not seen in a month. The most recent data showed that 571,580 bags—a new 23-year low—were held in ICE-monitored coffee stocks. Early in February, coffee prices rose to over a decade highs of $2.6; this year, more upward momentum may be anticipated. From an earlier projection of a 1.2 million bag surplus, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) has reduced its global supply estimate for 2021/22 to a shortfall of 3.13 million bags. Additionally, ICO downgraded its projections for worldwide output while highlighting stronger global consumption. Coffee Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Palladium reaching 2 week highs Palladium futures increased to their highest level in over two weeks, approaching $2100 a tonne, as significant dollar-denominated commodity buying increased in response to a halt in the dollar's rally. After the Fed chair reduced expectations for more large rate hikes while lifting the interest rate as widely anticipated, the US dollar stayed near 2-month lows. As the situation in Ukraine shows no signs of ending, worries about shipping problems from Russia, the metal's primary supplier, continue to exist. Vladimir Potanin, a Russian tycoon who owns 36% of Nornickel, the largest palladium manufacturer in the world, was recently sanctioned by Britain. Palladium Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Australia Is Expected To Produce A Bumper Year Of Crops

Break In The US Dollar Gain Is Supporting Platinum Prices, Wheat Prices Declining, RBOB Gasoline Prices Falling

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 18.08.2022 13:10
Summary: Falling gasoline prices amidst recessionary fears. Strong wheat supply from top growing regions. Platinum prices rising amidst weaker dollar. Platinum futures recovering from 22-month lows Following a break in the dollar gain after Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested the possibility of reducing the pace of interest rate hikes amid contraction in the US economy, platinum futures recovered from a 22-month low that was recorded on July 14th. Foreign investors are enticed to purchase the dollar-denominated commodity by low-cost dollars. As the war in Ukraine rages and the West continues to impose economic sanctions on Russia, shipment interruptions from Russia are anticipated to keep the metal supplies lower. The Russian mining behemoth Nornickel's CEO and largest shareholder, Vladimir Potanin, was subject to sanctions earlier in June by the British government. Nornickel, with a 10% global output share, is the third-largest producer of platinum. Platinum Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Strong Wheat supply driving prices down The strongest supply from significant growing regions caused Chicago wheat futures to decline to below $7.5 per bushel in mid-August, the lowest level since January. Following a pact between Russia and Ukraine for secure trade routes to ease the world food shortage, vessels carrying Ukrainian grain continued to operate without incident. It is anticipated that Ukraine will sell more than 20 million tonnes of grain that have reportedly collected in port silos since its invasion began on February 24 in addition to freeing up critical storage space for the next wheat harvest. Concerns over the impact of hot and dry weather on the crop were allayed elsewhere thanks to prospects of rain in the US corn belt. Meanwhile, the USDA raised the world's supplies upward in its most recent WASDE report, boosted by projections for record production in Russia and higher output from China and Australia. US supply projections were also upgraded because strong spring wheat more than made up for declining supplies of winter and durum wheat. Wheat Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline futures As a result of lower gas prices weighing on service station receipts, U.S. retail sales surprisingly remained constant in July. However, consumer spending began to pick up at the beginning of the third quarter, allaying concerns the economy was in a recession. However, falling petroleum prices gave consumers more money to spend on other items including furniture, electronics, appliances, building supplies, and gardening tools. RBOB Gasoline Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Gold Futures Decline, Cotton Reaching 7-week Highs, WTI Crude Futures

Gold Futures Decline, Cotton Reaching 7-week Highs, WTI Crude Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 19.08.2022 15:54
Summary: Cotton reached its highest levels in 7-weeks. Gold futures declining to 3-week lows. WTI crude falling as recessionary fears persist. Gold futures decline as Fed continues interest rate hiking Due to the US Federal Reserve's determination to maintain rising interest rates in order to reduce inflation, gold prices declined to a three-week low of $1,760 an ounce on Friday and were expected to conclude the week considerably lower. Due to the hawkish posture of the US central bank, the dollar has reached a one-month high against its main competitors, increasing the price of gold for buyers using other currencies. James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed Bank, stated in the most recent Fed commentary that he is considering supporting a third consecutive 75-basis point rate hike in September and that he is not yet prepared to declare that the economy has experienced the worst of the inflation spike. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart WTI Crude trading lower amidst economic downturk fears As worries about a global economic downturn overcame indications of more solid short-term fuel demand, WTI oil futures traded lower at about $89 per barrel on Friday and are expected to decline by more than 3% this week. Commodity markets remained gripped by recessionary fears, and the US Federal Reserve planned to raise interest rates further higher to fight inflation. Investors weigh the gradual rise in Russian production against European Union import curbs on goods in December and the beginning of the following year. Oil prices fell to their lowest levels in six months this week as a result of efforts to resurrect the 2015 nuclear agreement, which could increase Iranian oil shipments by approximately 2.5 million bpd. The nation exported a record 5 million bpd of oil last week amid strong European demand, according to official data, which also showed that US crude inventories were declining and that gasoline demand was rising. This led to an increase in oil prices of roughly 4% over the previous two sessions. WTI Crude Futures Price Chart Cotton futures increased to 7-week highs As traders weighed the chances of decreased supply against those of lower demand, cotton futures increased to levels above 120 USd/Lb, the highest in more than 7 weeks. According to the most recent USDA crop report, production for 2022–2023 will drop to 12.6 million bales, which would mark a decline from 2009–2010 levels. Additionally, the new output prediction is around 19% lower than 2021–2022. In the meantime, poor weather and pest attacks in important growing regions continue to threaten cotton crops in India, another significant producer. Cotton Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
OPEC+ Meeting: Saudi Arabia Implements Deeper Voluntary Cuts to Boost Oil Prices

Commodities Prices Are Falling Due To Global Economic Slowdown Concerns: Brent Crude Oil, Silver Futures, Corn Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 22.08.2022 13:54
Summary: Brent crude extends previous weeks losses. Investors favour the US Dollar. Corn crop is suffering. Brent Crude Oil extends losses In response to US President Joe Biden's talks with European allies about restarting the 2015 nuclear deal, Brent crude futures dipped below $96 per barrel on Monday, extending losses from the previous week. According to Bloomberg, Biden discussed "ongoing negotiations" toward a nuclear accord with the heads of France, Germany, and the UK on Sunday, as well as "the need to strengthen support for partners in the Middle East region." Since June, the price of oil and other commodities has also fallen due to growing concerns about a slowdown in the world economy. Major central banks are doing this by aggressively raising interest rates to stifle the inflation that is out of control. The Sichuan province extended industrial power cuts and activated its highest emergency response on Sunday to address electricity shortages, endangering regional manufacturing output while top importer China continues to be beset by economic problems. Brent Crude Futures Price Chart Silver futures extend losses Silver futures dropped to the $19.1 per ounce level, on track to end the week 8% lower, and extended previous losses to a three-week low as investors favored the US dollar over non-interest-bearing bullion assets due to the Federal Reserve's promise to fight inflation. In light of the potential for further inflation in the US economy, St. Louis Fed President Bullard stated that he is considering raising interest rates by 75 basis points for a third time in a row. According to the minutes of the July FOMC meeting, the Fed will stop providing forward guidance and base its decisions solely on the most recent data. Policymakers also concurred that interest rates must continue to rise until they reach a restrictive monetary setting as opposed to the current neutral level. Silver Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn crop quality deteriorating After the USDA's weekly report revealed that the crop's quality was deteriorating amid heatwaves in the Midwest and plains, corn futures increased to a 1-week high. The agency gave the U.S. maize crop a good to exceptional condition rating of 61%, significantly lower than experts' expectations and a drop from the previous week's rating of 64%. The crop that will be harvested in September is likely to suffer from the hot, dry weather that was present during key corn pollination. However, despite USDA predictions for increased supplies in 2022–2023 and negative demand outlook brought on by rising recession fears, corn prices are still close to an 8-month low reached on July 5. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
In Germany, The Next-Year Prices For Energy Are Astonishing! Why?

Coffee Futures Trading At Highest Level Since June 22, Palladium Sees Lowest Prices In A Month, WTI Crude Oil Stockpiles Dropped

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 24.08.2022 15:07
Summary: Fears around global supplies for crude oil persist. Increased anxiety around world coffee supplies. Worsening outlook for outlook for the auto industry weighing on palladium futures. WTI Crude Oil Futures After a report from the industry revealed another larger-than-expected drop in US crude stockpiles, adding to fears about a tightening global supply, WTI crude futures maintained their recent surge above $95 per barrel on Wednesday. US crude stockpiles dropped by 5.632 million barrels last week, according to a late-Tuesday API data; this was significantly more than the 900,000 barrel drop that analysts had predicted. Analysts anticipate a 933,000 barrel decline in the official EIA data that will be issued later in the day. Tuesday saw an almost 4% increase in oil prices after Saudi Arabia hinted at potential production curbs from OPEC+ to fend off negative pressure on prices. The price of petroleum is still down nearly 25% from its peak in June due to rising concerns that a global economic slowdown will reduce consumer spending as major central banks aggressively raise interest rates to fight inflation. Oil prices now face additional downside risks from the potential collapse of the 2015 nuclear agreement, which would increase Iranian oil shipments. WTI Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Coffee Futures Due to indications of severe dryness in top producer Brazil, Arabica coffee futures on the ICE were trading at their highest level since June 22. This increased anxiety over world supplies. According to Somar Meteorologia, Minas Gerais, which produces 30% of Brazil's arabica crop, had 0% of the normal amount of rain in the previous week. According to Maxar Technologies, the La Nina weather pattern is likely to persist through the end of the year. This suggests that Brazil will receive less rain through the end of the year, which could intensify the drought and put more strain on the country's coffee harvests. Coffee Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Palladium Futures Late in August, the price of palladium futures fell to its lowest level in a month, trading around $1,990 per ounce as the Fed's anticipated aggressive rate hikes increased demand for the US dollar and scared investors away from non-interest-bearing assets. The worsening prognosis for the auto industry put pressure on futures, which decreased demand for autocatalyst parts. Palladium Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Commodities Update: Strong Russian Oil Flows to China and Volatility in European Gas Market

Platinum futures drop to their lowest level in a month, RBOB Gasoline, Wheat Futures Close To 10-month Lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 25.08.2022 15:22
Summary: A hawkish Fed is causing investors to shy away from non-yielding assets. Ships transporting Ukrainian grain out of Black Sea ports continued to run without a hitch. RBOB Gasoline. Platinum Futures touching one-month lows Late in August, platinum futures experienced a decline to below $880 per ounce, the lowest level in a month, and followed other precious metals as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve policymakers boosted demand for the US dollar and scared investors away from non-interest-bearing assets. A global economic slowdown's effect on the auto industry's outlook, which lowered demand for autocatalyst components, also put pressure on prices. In July, car registrations were down year over year in the UK, Germany, and Italy, while declines were seen in the US and Canada according to June statistics. Platinum Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Wheat futures remain close to 10 month lows Late in August, with a lack of certainty over the weather in the US's growing regions, Chicago wheat futures eked out a small gain. Despite this, prices remained near to the 10-month low reached last week and were far lower than they were before Russia invaded Ukraine, as ships transporting Ukrainian grain out of Black Sea ports continued to run without a hitch. It is anticipated that Ukraine will sell more than 20 million tonnes of grain that are said to have collected in port silos since its invasion began on February 24 in addition to freeing up critical storage space for the next wheat harvest. Meanwhile, the USDA raised the world's supplies upward in its most recent WASDE report, boosted by projections for record production in Russia and higher output from China and Australia. The outlooks for US supplies were also upgraded because strong spring wheat more than made up for declines in winter and durum wheat. Wheat Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline According to AAA, the national average cost of gas in the United States has decreased for 70 days in a row to $3.89 a gallon. However, buyers shouldn't get complacent and believe that this streak will continue all the way to the end of the year. And one energy trader predicts that gas prices will rise once more, especially as we head into the fall and winter. RBOB Gasoline Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Chile's Lithium Nationalization and the Global Trend of Resource Nationalism: Implications for EV Supply Chains and Efforts to Strengthen Battery Metal Supply

Gold Prices Dip In the Wake Of Hawkish Fed Comments, Cotton Futures Trading Near 2-month Highs, Brent Crude Supplies Are Expected To Tighten

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.08.2022 15:02
Summary: US economy shrank in the second quarter at a moderate rate. Reduced global cotton supplies. Brent crude futures rose. Gold prices dip In anticipation of US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium later in the day, gold prices dipped below $1,760 an ounce on Friday. Following a slew of hawkish comments from Fed officials, Powell is expected to reiterate the central bank's aggressive stance against rising inflation. However, the markets are still split on whether the Fed will deliver another supersized 75 basis point or a more modest half-percentage point rate hike in September. A final estimate revealed that the US economy shrank in the second quarter at a more modest rate, bolstering the case for additional monetary tightening and maintaining pressure on the bullion markets. Although analysts predict further volatility should Powell's words surprise markets, gold is expected to close the week with minimal change. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton futures trade near 2-month highs Trading in cotton futures was relatively close to the nearly two-month high reached on August 16 as traders weighed the likelihood of reduced global supplies against a slowing in demand. The most recent USDA data stated that due to drought, particularly in Texas, which generally accounts for more than half of the US plantings, US production for 2022–2023 is predicted to drop to 12.6 million bales, which would be the lowest level since 2009–2010. The USDA also decreased its forecasts for global cotton consumption and production by 800,000 bales and 3.1 million bales, respectively. Heavy rains and bugs have severely damaged the cotton fields in India, another top producer, to the point where the government is now importing cotton. The projection of production this year has come down to 31.5 million bales while consumption is 34.5 million bales. Cotton Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Brent Crude supply tightening With a tightening supply forecast and hints of improving short-term fuel demand, Brent crude futures increased to almost $100 per barrel on Friday and were expected to end the week more than 3% higher. Official US data released on Wednesday revealed record crude and refined product exports last week along with a sustained fall in crude stocks. Additionally, traffic levels in the Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America increased significantly in the week leading up to August 24 according to TomTom's Congestion Index data. On the supply front, Saudi Arabia issued a warning that OPEC+ would reduce output to calm choppy markets. However, some OPEC sources told Reuters that such a move may not be imminent and that it would take place at the same time as Iranian oil returning to the international market. Brent prices, however, fell 1.9% on Thursday as negotiations to resurrect the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and the West appeared to be moving forward. Brent Crude Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Corn Prices Recorded Their Biggest Weekly Gain, Gold Demand In India May Suffer A Temporary Setback

Recession Fears Continue To Rattle the Commodity Markets - Brent Crude Oil, Silver Futures Touch 4-week lows, Corn Futures Reach 6-week Highs.

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 29.08.2022 14:00
Summary: Investors weigh Brent crude supply against a prolonged economic slowdown. Silver futures fall in the wake of declining demand and rising interest rates. Poor corn crop drives prices. Brent Crude Oil holding steady heading into the week Following a 4.4% increase last week, Brent crude futures held steady above $100 per barrel on Monday as investors weighed supply-side concerns against concerns that a prolonged global economic slowdown may damage gasoline consumption. In an effort to calm the choppy markets, Saudi Arabia suggested last week that OPEC+ production might be reduced. Congo and Libya backed this idea. Fears of more oil flow disruption were fueled by violent confrontations between rival militias in Libya's capital, while delays at a crucial Kazakhstani crude export facility continued. Expectations of an immediate restart of Iranian oil shipments have been reduced as nuclear discussions between the US and Iran continue into next month. Fears of a recession have been rattling commodity markets since June, and oil is expected to decrease for a third consecutive month. Jerome Powell, the chair of the US Federal Reserve, emphasized the need for higher interest rates on Friday, even at the risk of some short-term economic hardship, and ECB leaders shared the same outlook. Brent Crude Futures Price Chart   Silver prices are touching 4 week lows The price of silver dropped to a 4-week low of 18.678 USD/t.oz due to declining demand and rising interest rates all across the world. As China and India take advantage of cheap oil and gas from Russia, while Europe is shifting back to coal as an energy option, progress toward green technology, such as the development of solar panels, has suffered a setback. The Inflation Reduction Act, however, will allocate $430 billion to renewable energy in the US. Additionally, a recession in the global economy is causing large consumers to buy less silver jewelry and buy less technology and cars. Store closings caused by Covid epidemics have caused China and India to decline. On the supply front, Latin America's silver production has recovered from the Covid-19 setback thanks to the region's largest producers, Mexico and Peru, who relaxed limitations before the rest of the world. Since its March peak, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine sparked a rally in precious metals, silver has fallen by almost 30%. Silver Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart   Corn futures touching 6-week highs After the USDA reported poor crop conditions amid heatwaves in the Midwest and plains, corn climbed to a 6-week high. The organization gave a rating of 55% good to excellent for the US maize crop, down from 57% the week before. Regarding demand, the USDA reported that export inspections reached a total of 740,508 tonnes in the week ending August 18th, which was in line with market expectations. As a result of anticipating additional damage from the recent dry and hot weather, the European Union's crop monitoring service MARS reduced its production projections once more for summer crops throughout the union, including significant reductions in maize (corn). Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Saxo Bank Podcast: Natural Gas On Colder Weather, Wheat And Coffee Under Pressure, JPY Weaker And More

NGAS Prices Touching Near 14-year Highs, Cotton Futures Trading Near Two-month Highs, Gold Futures Fall To Near One-month Lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 30.08.2022 14:58
Summary: Heatwaves in the U.S and a pause in Gas flowing through the Noord Stream 1 pipeline. Gold’s appeal falling. Global cotton supplies look bleak. NGAS prices close to 14 year highs Following the expiration of the front-month September contract on Monday, US natural gas futures declined. Nevertheless, despite predictions for hotter weather and more cooling demand, prices are still very close to a more than 14-year high reached last week. As energy generators increase production to fulfill the demand for more cooling due to a string of heatwaves this summer across the US, demand from gas-fired power plants has reached all-time highs. The bullish outlook was further boosted by prospects of greater demand for US LNG supplies amid mounting worries about shortages in Europe. Russia's Gazprom announced that beginning on Wednesday, flows via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Europe would be stopped for three days. As a result of retracting earlier claims of an October restart and halting further upward momentum, Freeport LNG said that it will postpone the restart of its Quintana export project until November. NGAS Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart A strong dollar is driving the demand for gold down Tuesday saw gold prices linger around $1,740 per ounce, near to the one-month low they reached the previous session, and under pressure from a strong dollar amid expectations that US interest rates will continue to rise. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need to raise and hold rates at a restrictive level until inflation falls significantly in his speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. He added that doing otherwise may harm growth and weaken the employment market. Policymakers of the European Central Bank argued for a more forceful response to rising inflation over the weekend, and they are allegedly talking about increasing interest rates by 75 basis points in September. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion, which reduces the appeal of gold, despite the fact that it is commonly seen as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton prices trading near two-month highs The price of cotton futures was trading close to a nearly two-month high reached on August 16 as traders weighed the likelihood of reduced global supplies against a slowing in demand. The most recent USDA data stated that due to drought, particularly in Texas, which generally accounts for more than half of the US plantings, US production for 2022–2023 is predicted to drop to 12.6 million bales, which would be the lowest level since 2009–2010. The USDA also decreased its forecasts for global cotton consumption and production by 800,000 bales and 3.1 million bales, respectively. Heavy rains and bugs have severely damaged the cotton fields in India, another top producer, to the point where the government is now importing cotton. Cotton Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Coffee Is In Danger As Its Suppliers Have Troubles With Crops

WTI Crude Oil Prices Are Falling, Coffee Futures Trading Near 6-month Highs, Palladium Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 31.08.2022 14:48
Summary: Concerns around demand for crude oil is driving the prices down. Coffee futures trading higher amidst concerns around crop production. WTI Crude Oil prices on track to lose more than 8% in August WTI crude futures resumed their downward trend on Wednesday, falling to about $89 per barrel, continuing the loss from the previous session and putting them on track to lose over 8% of their value in August as concerns about tight monetary policy and Covid limits in China push energy demand downward. Since aggressive measures are required to stabilize consumer prices after the eurozone's inflation rate extended its record-high in August, ECB officials stated a 75 bps rate increase is being considered for their upcoming meeting. The Fed is also anticipated to maintain high borrowing costs for an extended period of time, even if doing so slows growth. New Covid outbreaks, which forced millions of people into stringent lockdowns in the key Chinese cities of Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Dalian, added to concerns about sluggish economic activity in the world's largest oil importer after August PMI data showed contraction for the second consecutive month. Conflicts in Iraq kept markets on edge in terms of supply, but the country's oil production was mainly unaffected. WTI Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Palladium prices have risen overall in 2022 Since the start of 2022, palladium prices have climbed by 187.18 USD/t oz., or 9.89%, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that monitors the benchmark market for this commodity. Palladium Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Coffee Futures As the attention remained on the weather in top producer Brazil, Arabica coffee futures on ICE were trading down marginally from an almost six-month high that was achieved on August 25. Concerns that there might not be enough moisture to sustain the development of coffee buds and cherries after some early flowering were allayed by the forecast for rain in Brazilian coffee regions over the following ten days. However, Maxar Technologies reported last week that the effects of La Nina are likely to persist through the end of the year. This suggests that Brazil will receive less rain through the end of the year, which could exacerbate the country's current drought and put additional strain on its coffee crops. After reaching a 23-year low of 571,580 bags on August 15, the most recent data showed that ICE-certified arabica stockpiles on August 29th remained at 663,874 bags, an increase of eight consecutive days. Coffee Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Australia Is Expected To Produce A Bumper Year Of Crops

Platinum Prices Drop To November 2020 Lows, US Gasoline Prices Falling, Wheat Prices Elevated

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 01.09.2022 15:41
Summary: Elevated interest rates continue to drive platinum prices down. Supply concerns around wheat drive prices. US Gasoline prices fall to pre-Russia’s invasion of Ukraine levels. Platinum touching lowest levels since November 2020 As global interest rates are expected to continue rising and should remain high for a prolonged period of time, even if it slows growth, platinum futures extended losses to below $850 per ounce, closing in on their lowest level since November of 2020. They have also been tracking other precious metals lower. The fed funds rate has already increased by 225 basis points since March at the Federal Reserve, the most potent central bank in the world. Fed policymakers are now advocating for rises to continue at least until the level of 4% in early 2019. Additionally, despite expectations that they would subside in the second part of the year, ongoing shortages and supply chain problems hurt the auto industry and lower demand for autocatalyst components. Platinum Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Wheat futures remain elevated Chicago wheat futures saw a strong increase at the end of August after hitting a nine-month low in the middle of the month due to supply issues and increasing demand. According to government figures, Ukraine will harvest close to 20 million tonnes of wheat this year, down from 32.2 million the year prior as a result of weaker yields and the loss of farmed area to Russian forces during their invasion. Additionally, the nation intends to free up storage space for the upcoming harvest by selling the roughly 20 million tonnes of grain that are said to have collected in port silos since its invasion began on February 24. Meanwhile, US heatwaves cut corn harvests, further straining wheat supplies. Wheat Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline On Wednesday, wholesale gasoline prices in the United States plummeted to their lowest levels since before Russia invaded Ukraine, indicating that motorists in the world's largest energy consumer will soon witness cheaper pump prices. Markets for crude oil futures and gasoline have been kept in check by worries about a worldwide recession and a record level of emergency oil sales from national stockpiles. RBOB Gasoline Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Eyes On Iran Nuclear Deal: Oil Case. Gold Price Is Swinging

WTI Crude Oil On Track For Worst Weekly Decline In 4 Weeks, Silver Touching 2-year Lows, Coffee Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 02.09.2022 14:38
Summary: WTI oil is 30% down from its high. A hawkish fed causing investors to shy away from silver. Weather conditions causing concerns around coffee supplies. WTI Crude Oil weighed down by recessionary fears After falling more than 3% the previous day, oil prices increased by about 3% to over $89 per barrel on Friday amid expectations that OPEC+ will discuss output curbs at a meeting on Monday. However, due to worries about the recession and the effects of additional COVID lockdowns in China, WTI oil is on pace for its worst weekly decline in four weeks and is down more than 30% from its high. Investors are eagerly following the status of talks to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement on the supply side because a prospective agreement might unleash substantial flows from Iran. WTI Crude Futures Price Chart Silver futures reaching lows not seen in 2 years In September, silver futures dropped below $18 per ounce, reaching lows not seen in more than two years as the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals prompted investors to switch from metal to the US dollar. The dollar reached over 20-year highs as Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the US central bank's aim of reducing inflation down to the 2% threshold and stated that borrowing costs will remain at a restrictive level for a protracted period even if it hampers GDP. Another factor adding to the flight from precious metals is that the European Central Bank is reportedly considering a larger 75 basis point rate hike to combat inflation at its policy meeting next week. The appeal of storing non-yielding bullion is diminished by increased interest rates, despite the fact that it is widely seen as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. August is expected to end with silver down roughly 12%. Silver Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Concerns around Coffee supplies driving prices As the attention remained on weather in top producer Brazil, Arabica coffee futures on ICE were trading down marginally from an almost six-month high that was called on August 25th. Concerns that there might not be enough moisture to sustain the development of coffee buds and cherries after some early flowering were allayed by the forecast for rain in Brazilian coffee regions over the following ten days. However, Maxar Technologies reported last week that the effects of La Nina are likely to persist through the end of the year. This suggests that Brazil will receive less rain through the end of the year, which could exacerbate the country's current drought and put additional strain on its coffee crops. After reaching a 23-year low of 571,580 bags on August 15, the most recent data showed that ICE-certified arabica stockpiles on August 29th remained at 663,874 bags, an increase of eight consecutive days. Coffee Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
OPEC+ Meeting: Saudi Arabia Implements Deeper Voluntary Cuts to Boost Oil Prices

Brent Crude Oil Prices In The Wake Of OPEC+ Surprise Agreement, Silver Futures Down, Corn Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 05.09.2022 17:48
Summary: G7 nations decide to cap Russian oil prices. Demand for silver is diminishing. Corn up throughout 2022. Brent Crude Oil Prices Following OPEC+'s surprise agreement on a modest oil production cut to sustain prices that have fallen due to concerns about a projected worldwide recession-driven decline in demand, Brent crude futures increased past the $96 per barrel threshold. In order to deal with macroeconomic headwinds and counter a potential production increase from Iran, the oil cartel will restrict output by 100,000 barrels per day beginning in October, or around 0.1% of world demand. The market action followed the G7 nations' decision to cap the price of Russian oil in order to limit Moscow's ability to finance its conflict in Ukraine. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Silver futures touched below $18 per ounce In September, silver futures dropped below $18 per ounce, reaching lows not seen in more than two years as the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals prompted investors to switch from metal to the US dollar. The dollar reached over 20-year highs as Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the US central bank's aim of reducing inflation down to the 2% threshold and stated that borrowing costs will remain at a restrictive level for a protracted period even if it hampers GDP. Another factor adding to the flight from precious metals is that the European Central Bank is reportedly considering a larger 75 basis point rate hike to combat inflation at its policy meeting next week. The appeal of storing non-yielding bullion is diminished by increased interest rates, despite the fact that it is widely seen as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. August is expected to end with silver down roughly 12%. Silver Dec ‘22 Future Price Chart Corn Futures up 10.43% Since the start of 2022, corn prices have climbed by 61.89 USd/BU, or 10.43%, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that monitors the benchmark market for this commodity. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Natural Gas Prices Extended The Recovery

Russia Suspends Flow Through The Nord Stream 1 Pipeline, Cotton Futures, Gold Prices Increase For The First Time In 3-weeks

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 06.09.2022 09:29
Summary: NGAS futures rise in the wake of suspension of Nord Stream 1 pipeline. A stagnant dollar and safe-haven buying prompted by economic uncertainty boosted bullion demand. NGAS futures increasing The second week of September saw a small increase in US natural gas futures, recovering from the 6% drop the previous week to keep pace with the rise in the European benchmark following the indefinite suspension of Russian gas exports through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. The action reversed the prior declaration by Russian supplier Gazprom that flows will start up again on Saturday after a maintenance outage, adding to worries over Europe's energy shortage before the winter. Meanwhile, a string of heatwaves that have hit the US this summer have increased demand for gas-fired power facilities. Freeport LNG announced that the launch of its Quintana export project would be postponed until November. NGAS Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton Futures Trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that monitors the benchmark market for this commodity shows that cotton has dropped 3.01 USd/Lbs, or 2.67%, since the start of 2022. Cotton Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold futures rising After falling for the previous three weeks, gold prices increased above $1,710 an ounce on Tuesday as a stagnant dollar and safe-haven buying prompted by economic uncertainty boosted bullion demand. As traders took some profits and anticipated this week's speeches by Federal Reserve officials and policy announcements from other significant central banks, the dollar's unrelenting rally came to a halt. Following the announcement that gas shipments via the crucial Nord Stream 1 pipeline will not resume, a worsening energy crisis in Europe also rekindled recessionary fears, prompting investors to seek for safer assets. As the Federal Reserve is anticipated to continue with aggressive interest rate hikes to combat excessive inflation, gold is likely to remain under pressure. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia also announced its fourth consecutive 50 basis point rate increase, and later this week, the European and Canadian central banks are expected to do the same. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Commodities: EU Members Manage To Agree On Price Caps For Russian Oil

WTI Crude Futures Trading Close To January Lows, Potential For Favourable Weather Driving Coffee Futures Down, Palladium Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 07.09.2022 15:19
Summary: WTI crude futures fell amidst concerns around weak demand. Potential rain in Brazil driving coffee futures down. Strong US dollar. WTI Crude Oil trading close to January lows WTI crude futures were trading close to January's lows around $87 per barrel on Wednesday due to ongoing worries about slowing global growth and therefore weak demand. Weak customs statistics from the world's largest importer, China, and new coronavirus-related limitations in a number of cities raised the possibility of significant economic harm and decreased gasoline usage. In addition, lingering worries about global economy and the prospect of protracted tighter financial conditions continued to depress mood. With Saudi Arabia foreshadowing more action, OPEC+ surprisingly agreed to cut supply by 100,000 barrels per day beginning in October, providing a floor under prices. WTI Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Coffee Futures fell amidst favourable weather potential As the attention remained on the weather in top producer Brazil, Arabica coffee futures on the ICE were trading down marginally from an almost six-month high hit on August 25. The setback has been exacerbated by the likelihood of rain in some regions of Brazil's coffee-growing regions over the upcoming few weeks, but dealers said there are still questions about whether there will be enough moisture to support development of coffee buds and cherries after some early flowering. As of August 31st, 672,585 bags of ICE-certified arabica were in stock, up from a 23-year low of 571,580 bags on August 15th, according to the most recent data. Coffee Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Shortage of Palladium remains The strongest US dollar in nearly seven weeks, rising interest rates, and slowing GDP all contributed to the decline in palladium futures prices, which dropped below $1,780 per ounce. It is anticipated that central banks would keep raising interest rates to keep inflation from soaring even when the economy is slowing. Furthermore, despite the price increase and supply chain disruptions, demand for palladium, which is used in auto catalysts for gasoline-powered vehicles, has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic levels. Even so, there is still a shortage on the palladium market. Palladium Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Brent Crude Oil Stayed Quite Strong Yesterday Rising 0.7%, But In The Near Future Commodites May Be Endangered By (USD) US Dollar's Dominance And More

Persistent Likelihood Of A Demand-Draining Global Economic Recession - Brent Crude Oil Futures, Silver Futures, Corn Futures - 13.09.2022

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 12.09.2022 12:00
Summary: Brent crude futures increased by a small amount, extending gains for the third session. Silver futures touching 3 week highs. Brent Crude Oil extends gains for third session On Monday, Brent crude futures increased by a small amount to above $93.5 a barrel, extending gains for the third session. This was achieved despite concerns over a dimming demand picture and a US-led plan to control the price of Russian oil. The likelihood of a demand-draining global economic recession persisted, partly due to aggressive monetary tightening by major central banks and Covid-19 limits implemented by top crude importer China. As European sanctions begin to take effect in December, the Group of Seven is also attempting to persuade additional nations to join their efforts to restrict Moscow's energy revenues by setting a ceiling on Russian oil prices. Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, promised to react by stopping all energy shipments to Europe if a price ceiling were to become law. Iran's commitment to a new nuclear accord has also been questioned by the UK, Germany, and France, which has delayed the possibility of an increase in Iranian oil exports. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Silver futures touch highest level in 3 weeks In September, silver futures surged to nearly $19 per ounce, the highest level in three weeks, followed by other bullion assets during the US dollar's strong decline as investors continued to gauge how far the Federal Reserve will tighten policy. During the Cato Institute conference, Chairman Powell emphasized the language that the US central bank will keep raising interest rates to bring inflation significantly down, as markets continue to bet on the Fed raising rates by 75 basis points for a third time in a row this month. In other news, the ECB increased borrowing prices by a record-breaking 75 basis points to rein in the eurozone's soaring inflation and hinted at further tightening in upcoming sessions. Futures for silver are expected to end the week more than 4% higher. Silver Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn futures have gains 17.5% during 2022 Trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that reflects the benchmark market for this commodity shows that corn has gained 103.81 USd/BU or 17.50% since the start of 2022. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Chile's Lithium Nationalization and the Global Trend of Resource Nationalism: Implications for EV Supply Chains and Efforts to Strengthen Battery Metal Supply

Uncertainty Around Europe's Energy Imports, Cotton Trading At 4-week Lows, Gold Demand Falling

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 13.09.2022 15:44
Summary: Increased uncertainty regarding the demand for energy imports in Europe. Decreased demand and constrained supplies for cotton. Gold prices dropped to below $1700 an ounce on Tuesday. NGAS futures rose in September While there was increased uncertainty regarding the demand for energy imports in Europe as ministers discussed potential measures to reduce skyrocketing energy prices, US natural futures rose in September, recovering from the one-month low that was reached earlier in the month and extending the volatile momentum for energy commodities. Even so, costs are still well below the almost 14-year high of $10/MMBtu reached last month as demand was hampered by dropping temperatures. More gas will be available in the US for utilities to add to stocks for the upcoming winter as Freeport LNG anticipates a significant delay in the reopening of its Quintana export plant until November. NGAS Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton trading at 4-week lows As traders considered the potential of decreased demand and constrained supplies, cotton futures traded at their lowest level in more than four weeks. Concerns over the prospects for the global economy owing to rising interest rates have been exacerbated by recent COVID-19-led limitations in top consumer China. In its most recent report, the USDA reduced both the U.S. output estimate and the global production forecast for the crop year 2022–2023 by 3 million bales each. The health of the natural fiber crop is in jeopardy, and supply issues have arisen as a result of the hot, dry weather in important American agricultural regions. Crops in India, another significant producer, are still in danger due to unfavorable weather and pest infestations in key growing regions. Cotton Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold futures falling A stronger dollar and a hotter-than-expected inflation print drove predictions of additional big rate hikes by the Fed to quell persistent inflationary pressures, and gold prices dropped to below $1700 an ounce on Tuesday. Despite a dramatic decline in gasoline prices, prices across the board increased overall, particularly for food and housing. Investors in Europe have bet that the ECB will keep raising borrowing costs sharply in the wake of this month's historic 75bps rate hike. Even though gold is regarded as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, its attraction is diminished by increased interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradineconomics.com
Volume Of Crude Oil Rose For The Second Session In A Row

WTI Crude Oil Has Remained Relatively Stable, Coffee Futures, Palladium Futures Touch 4-week Highs

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 14.09.2022 15:17
Summary: Crude traded in a narrow range as investors continue to gauge the outlook for global demand. Coffee has dropped more than 2% in 2022. Palladium prices are 30% lower than they were in March. WTI Crude Oil stayed relatively stable WTI oil futures have been trading in a narrow range this week, holding around $87 a barrel on Wednesday as investors continue to gauge the outlook for global demand. The International Energy Agency is still pessimistic about fundamentals in the near term, pointing out that as the global economic recession deepens, growth in oil consumption is predicted to decelerate in the last quarter of 2022. However, the Paris-based company anticipates a significant increase in demand by 2023. OPEC, on the other hand, provided a somewhat more upbeat picture, keeping to its projections for worldwide solid oil demand growth in 2022 and the following year and highlighting indications that developed countries are still able to withstand challenges like rising inflation. Market expectations for the continuation of the 2015 nuclear agreement between the West and Iran have fallen in the meanwhile, but reports that the US was considering restocking its strategic oil reserves helped to maintain prices to some extent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Coffee futures Trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that monitors the benchmark price for this commodity shows that coffee has dropped 4.60 USd/Lb or 2.03% since the start of 2022. Coffee Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Palladium futures touch 4-week highs As the dollar index deviated from 20-year highs, palladium futures increased their gains to $2,200 per ounce, the highest level in almost four weeks. Nevertheless, in spite of rising interest rates and slowing GDP, palladium prices are 30% lower than they were in March. It is anticipated that central banks would keep raising interest rates to keep inflation from soaring even when the economy is slowing. Furthermore, despite the price increase and supply chain disruptions, demand for palladium, which is used in auto catalysts for gasoline-powered vehicles, has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic levels. However, there is still a shortfall on the palladium market. Palladium Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Crude Oil Price:  A Crucial Event Takes Place In The Week Ahead

Gold Futures Nearing 2 Year lows, Growing Recession Fears Dragging Down WTI Crude Oil, Cotton Futures Touching 4 Week Lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 16.09.2022 17:34
Summary: Gold was expected to have its fourth losing week. WTI oil futures are still expected to decrease for the third consecutive week. Cotton futures were trading at levels not seen in more than four weeks. Strong US dollar driving gold down On Friday, the price of gold was hovering around $1,660 per ounce, close to two-year lows, and was expected to have its fourth losing week in five as a result of the strong dollar and the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate hike. Fears that the Fed may need to act even more aggressively to stop rising prices were confirmed by strong US retail sales and jobless claims statistics on Thursday and a surprise hot CPI reading earlier this week. In times of increased economic uncertainty, gold also lost its appeal as a safe-haven commodity when the World Bank and IMF cut growth projections for major economies and major US companies provided dovish advise on bleak economic prospects. Even though gold is regarded as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, its attraction is diminished by increased interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart WTI Crude Oil expected to decline for the third consecutive week As aggressive monetary tightening by major central banks and concerns about a global recession lowered demand expectations, WTI oil futures remained stable near $85 per barrel on Friday but were still expected to decrease for the third consecutive week. Energy prices were also under pressure due to a strong dollar, which increases the cost of goods for consumers using foreign currencies. In addition, the US Department of Energy reversed earlier claims that the US would replenish its emergency stocks should WTI prices fall below $80, removing the possibility of an oil price floor. This led to a sharp decline in oil prices on Thursday. China is considering allowing greater petroleum exports, which could indicate sluggish local demand on the supply side. The global oil market swung into a "substantial surplus" this quarter, according to Standard Chartered Plc, while Morgan Stanley and UBS Group AG lowered near-term predictions due to recession concerns, according to Bloomberg. WTI Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Cotton falling as economic outlook sours As traders considered the potential of decreased demand and constrained supplies, cotton futures were trading at levels not seen in more than four weeks. New limits on top consumers as a result of COVID-19 China raised further doubts about the state of the world economy as a result of rising interest rates. In its most recent report, the USDA reduced both the U.S. output estimate and the global production forecast for the crop year 2022–2023 by 3 million bales each. The health of the natural fiber crop is in jeopardy, and supply issues have arisen as a result of the hot, dry weather in important American agricultural regions. Crops in India, another significant producer, are still in danger due to unfavorable weather and pest infestations in key growing regions. Cotton Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Corn Prices Recorded Their Biggest Weekly Gain, Gold Demand In India May Suffer A Temporary Setback

Aggressive Monetary Tightening Dampened Brent Crude Oil Forecasts, Silver Futures Falling, Corn Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 19.09.2022 16:50
Summary: Brent crude oil dropped for their third consecutive week. Higher-than-anticipated US inflation fueled concerns that the Fed might raise interest rates quicker. Brent crude oil faced 3 weeks of declines After three weeks of falls, Brent crude futures dropped below $91 per barrel on Monday as aggressive monetary tightening and recession worries dampened the forecast for demand before the European Union's embargo on Russian oil in December. Investors are getting ready for a flurry of interest rate announcements this week, led by the US Federal Reserve, which is anticipated to deliver another enormous rate hike to fight inflation. The top crude importer in the world had a wider opening when Chengdu, a city in China, removed a two-week lockdown. For the first time in three weeks, US energy companies added oil and natural gas rigs last week, signaling a future with higher output on the supply side. In Europe, as the country struggles with a deepening energy crisis that threatened to plunge the eurozone into a recession, Germany seized the local branch of a significant Russian oil refinery. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Silver prices trading below 4 weeks highs Silver futures were trading at $19.5 per ounce, remaining below the nearly four-week high of $19.8 reached on September 12 as higher-than-anticipated US inflation fueled concerns that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates more quickly than anticipated, leading investors to the US dollar rather than non-yielding bullion investments. Speculations that the US central bank would give a more aggressive 100bps increase in its funds rate next week were sparked by worries that price rise may not have peaked yet, boosting predictions that borrowing might go to as much as 4.3% in early 2023. The European Central Bank (ECB) indicated it will keep raising interest rates after its September meeting, which saw a 75bps increase. According to Bank of France president Villeroy, as policymakers work to reduce inflation from its current historically high levels, borrowing prices in the bloc may approach a neutral level by the end of the year. Silver Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn Trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that reflects the benchmark market for this commodity shows that corn has gained 78.71 USd/BU or 13.27% since the start of 2022. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Central Banks' Rates Outlook: Fed Treads Cautiously, ECB Prepares for Hike

NGAS Futures Rose Amidst Energy Crisis Concerns, Decreased Cotton Demand & Constrained Supplies, Gold Touching 2-year Lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 20.09.2022 13:38
Summary: Natural gas futures rose, pulling away from a two-month low. Cotton futures were trading at levels not seen in the previous six weeks. Inflation elevated the dollar at the expense of other safe-haven assets. NGAS futures rose above from a 2-month low Amid ongoing worries about an energy crisis in Europe and almost endless demand, natural gas futures rose, pulling away from a two-month low touched in the previous session. Other EIA statistics indicated that utilities added 77 billion cubic feet of gas to storage in the week ending September 9th, exceeding estimates of 73 billion. The Cove Point LNG plant in Maryland is scheduled to shut down for maintenance in October, which would halt shipments to other countries and boost local utility stockpiles. In the meanwhile, domestic supply is expected to climb. The incident furthers the abrupt delay in Freeport LNG's Quintana export plant restarting until November. NGAS Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Potential cotton demand decreased As traders considered the potential of decreased demand and constrained supplies, cotton futures were trading at levels not seen in the previous six weeks. New limits on top consumers as a result of COVID-19 China raised further doubts about the state of the world economy as a result of rising interest rates. In its most recent report, the USDA reduced both the U.S. output estimate and the global production forecast for the crop year 2022–2023 by 3 million bales each. The health of the natural fiber crop is in jeopardy, and supply issues have arisen as a result of the hot, dry weather in important American agricultural regions. Crops in India, another significant producer, are still in danger due to unfavorable weather and pest infestations in key growing regions. Cotton Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold touching 2 year lows As investors stayed away from the market ahead of a crucial US Federal Reserve meeting, where it is anticipated that it will announce another significant interest rate hike to combat high inflation, gold prices stabilized around $1,675 an ounce on Tuesday, hovering close to the lowest levels in over two years. A third consecutive 75 basis point hike is presently priced into the markets due to last week's higher-than-expected inflation readings and strong economic indicators in the US, which reinforced expectations that the Fed will tighten further. This week, other significant central banks including the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England are anticipated to do the same. Analysts disagree on whether the BOE will increase rates by 50 or 75 basis points. As the US' relative economic strength and the Fed's active stance against inflation elevated the dollar at the expense of other safe-haven assets, gold lost its appeal as a store of value in times of economic uncertainty. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
WTI Crude Oil Gains 3% On Wednesday, Palladium Touching 4-week Highs, Coffee Futures Falling

WTI Crude Oil Gains 3% On Wednesday, Palladium Touching 4-week Highs, Coffee Futures Falling

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.09.2022 10:12
Summary: Concerns around crude supplies drive prices. The shortfall on the palladium market persists. Likelihood of favorable weather in Brazil driving coffee futures down. WTI Crude oil demand threatened Wednesday saw a nearly 3% increase in WTI crude futures to over $86 a barrel due to worries about supply disruptions following President Vladimir Putin's announcement of a partial military mobilization in Russia. Gains occurred before the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a disproportionate amount, which the markets believe will stunt global economic development and reduce demand for oil. US oil inventories grew by approximately 1 million barrels last week, according to industry statistics, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose by about 3.2 million and 1.5 million barrels, respectively. Saudi Aramco and Crescent Petroleum executives, in separate remarks, identified underinvestment in the oil industry as a significant output barrier and the primary cause of the current global energy crisis. According to Reuters, OPEC+ is currently falling 3.58 million barrels per day, or around 3.5%, short of its goals. WTI Crude Futures Price Chart Palladium touching 4-week highs As the dollar index deviated from 20-year highs, palladium futures increased their gains to $2,200 per ounce, the highest level in almost four weeks. Nevertheless, in spite of rising interest rates and slowing GDP, palladium prices are 30% lower than they were in March. It is anticipated that central banks would keep raising interest rates to keep inflation from soaring even when the economy is slowing. Furthermore, despite the price increase and supply chain disruptions, demand for palladium, which is used in auto catalysts for gasoline-powered vehicles, has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic levels. However, there is still a shortfall on the palladium market. Palladium Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Coffee touching 1-month lows The price of Arabica coffee futures on the ICE was near its lowest level since August 19th due to the weaker real and the likelihood of favorable weather in Brazil, the world's largest producer. According to Climatempo, heavy and frequent rains would fall in the Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais coffee-growing regions from the end of September to the beginning of October. The rain should increase soil moisture levels and encourage coffee tree flowering for the crop of Brazil coffee in 2023–2024. The Green Coffee Association also announced that U.S. green coffee stocks for August increased by 3.6% monthly and 5.2% annually, reaching a 2-year record of 6,450,086 million bags. Coffee Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Platinum Futures Hold Above $900, Wheat trading at their highest level since early July, RBOB Gasoline Futures

Platinum Futures Hold Above $900, Wheat trading at their highest level since early July, RBOB Gasoline Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 22.09.2022 11:01
Summary: Platinum supply is expected to decrease by 8% this year. Chicago wheat futures trading at their highest level since early July. Gasoline's 98-days of recorded decreases comes to an end. Reduced supply and rising demand are supporting Platinum prices In September, platinum futures remained over the $900 per ounce threshold thanks to expectations for reduced supply and indications of rising demand. The World Platinum Investment Council predicted that the entire supply will decrease by 8% this year. Meanwhile, diminishing supplies from mines and recycling, along with China's high demand for catalytic converters, helped to boost prices. Nevertheless, platinum's recovery from the 26-month low of $830 reached on September 1 was constrained by expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve and the ensuing dollar gain. Platinum Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Wheat under strain as the conflict in the Ukraine persists Chicago wheat futures surged to trade at their highest level since early July as fresh geopolitical worries fueled worries that key producing centers might export less grain. The Donbass separatist areas and the seized portions of Kherson will vote this weekend on whether to join Russia, as part of the Kremlin's plans to formally annexe Ukrainian territory. The actions heightened concerns that the situation between Russia and Ukraine could worsen, leading Russia to revoke the safe trade corridor from previously negotiated Ukrainian Black Sea exports. The arrangement has already drawn harsh criticism from the Russian president, who claimed that Russia had been "cheated" and vowed to change the terms of the agreement, which would impede delivery to significant importers around the globe. Wheat Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline rises again After a 98-days of recorded decreases, retail gasoline prices in the US have seen their first increase, although a very small one, indicating that customers won't see much more relief at the pump. RBOB Gasoline Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Brent Crude Oil Stayed Quite Strong Yesterday Rising 0.7%, But In The Near Future Commodites May Be Endangered By (USD) US Dollar's Dominance And More

Brent Crude Futures On Track For Their Fourth Consecutive Losing Week, Gold Touches 2-year Lows, Corn Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 23.09.2022 12:15
Summary: Central banks around the world boosted interest rates this week. Gold prices continued to be pressured by a strong dollar and rising Treasury yields. Chicago Corn futures were maintaining their upward trend Brent Crude Oil heading for 4th weekly decline As central banks around the world boosted interest rates this week, fueling concerns about a global economic downturn and impacting on the forecast for energy consumption, Brent oil futures traded near $90 per barrel on Friday and were on track for their fourth consecutive losing week. Along with rate rises from the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and other institutions, the US Federal Reserve took the lead with its third consecutive 75 basis point rate increase. The Fed's proactive stance against inflation and demand for safe haven assets, which drove the dollar strongly higher, also dampened mood because it made oil priced in greenbacks more expensive for buyers using foreign currencies. Meanwhile, news that efforts to resurrect the 2015 Iran nuclear deal have failed has prevented oil prices from suffering more losses on Friday. Investors also kept an eye on Russia's limited military deployment, which might further disrupt supplies, the strengthening Chinese economy, and the potential for further output cutbacks from OPEC+. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Gold futures touching 2 year lows Gold prices continued to be pressured by a strong dollar and rising Treasury yields, which indicated forecasts for tighter monetary policy and weakening global growth. On Friday, gold prices dropped below $1,660 an ounce, the lowest in over two years. With its third consecutive 75 basis point rate increase to combat inflation, the US Federal Reserve led a flurry of central banks this week in raising interest rates. With Isabel Schnabel, an ECB board member, stating on Thursday that strong inflationary pressures in the euro zone are likely to be more persistent than anticipated, the European Central Bank is also expected to raise rates further. Higher interest rates reduce the appeal of holding non-yielding bullion by increasing the opportunity cost. As the US' relative economic strength and the Fed's active stance against inflation elevated the dollar at the expense of other safe-haven assets, gold also lost its luster as a store of wealth in times of economic uncertainty. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn shortage is expected Chicago Corn futures were maintaining their upward trend since falling to an eight-month low in July, and diverging from the oil market as concerns about a shortage of corn outweighed expectations of a decline in demand. Expectations for the current crop were limited by bad weather in the major growing regions of the Americas. In the US, WASDE forecasts that output will amount to 13.9 billion bushels in the upcoming marketing year, down 415 million from earlier projections due to a fall in yields and harvesting area. Additionally, ending stocks and global production were revised downward. In the US, summer droughts caused havoc on domestic maize crops during the current marketing year, resulting in yields that were the lowest since the drought of 2012. Additionally, the impacts of La Nina in South America significantly harmed the health of the harvests, putting additional strain on supply. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Analysis Of Crude Oil Futures, WTI Prices Recorded A Slight Decline

Brent Crude Oil Supported By Supply Disruptions, Silver Futures, Corn Futures Rising Amid Supply Concerns

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.09.2022 20:16
Summary: Brent Crude rose from an 8-month low. Silver futures trading close to 2 year lows. Corn futures have been climbing steadily. Brent Crude oil rose from 8-month low Brent crude prices rose from an eight-month low of $84.6 a barrel, buoyed by worries about potential supply disruptions, particularly those from Russia given the impending EU ban on its fuel, and rumors that OPEC might step up market intervention. Early this month, OPEC and its oil-producing allies—including Russia—announced a modest supply reduction and promised to take further measures if the market volatility persisted. However, concerns are growing that a sudden tightening from the world's main central banks might halt global economic development and reduce energy demand. Additionally, a higher dollar has been pressuring energy markets, raising the cost of commodities with dollar prices for buyers using other currencies. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Silver trading near 2-year low In late September, silver futures were trading at $18.6 per ounce, close to the over two-year low of $17.9 reached earlier in the month as the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening momentum drove investors away from bullion investments and into the interest-bearing US dollar. The Fed increased the rate on its funds by 75 basis points for the third time in a row in addition to rate increases by other significant central banks, and forecast that borrowing may reach as high as 4.6% by March 2023. A worldwide economic slowdown is also impacting jewelry sales as well as consumer spending in China and India, two of the world's largest consumers of gadgets and autos. Additionally, while China and India take advantage of cheap oil and gas from Russia and Europe is moving back to coal as an energy option, progress toward green technology, such as the development of solar panels, has suffered a setback. Silver Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn futures have been climbing steady Since reaching an eight-month low in July, corn futures have been climbing steadily, breaking from their association with oil as worries about a lack of supply overcame expectations of a decline in demand. Expectations for the current crop were limited by bad weather in the major growing regions of the Americas. In the US, WASDE forecasts that output will amount to 13.9 billion bushels in the upcoming marketing year, down 415 million from earlier projections due to a fall in yields and harvesting area. Additionally, ending stocks and global production were revised downward. In the US, summer droughts caused havoc on domestic maize crops during the current marketing year, resulting in yields that were the lowest since the drought of 2012. Additionally, the impacts of La Nina in South America significantly harmed the health of the harvests, putting additional strain on supply. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Japan's Prime Minister Tested Covid Positive. Gazprom Confirmed Gas Shipment Would Be Stopped!

NGAS Touching 2-month Lows, Cotton Futures Down, Gold Sitting At Lowest Level In 2.5 Years

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 27.09.2022 10:27
Summary: Natural gas futures are still up around 100% for the year. Cotton futures were trading at levels last seen in July 2021. The price of gold is still close to its lowest levels in 2.5 years. Larger-than-expected storage build driving NGAS prices down Under pressure from a larger-than-expected storage build, natural gas futures reached a bottom below a level not seen in two months. According to the most recent EIA data, US utilities put 103 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas underground storage, significantly more than the median estimate of 93 bcf. Due to high domestic output levels and prospects for better weather through early October, prices were already under pressure. Expectations that demand would decrease even further in October when the Cove Point liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in Maryland shuts down for maintenance added to the pessimistic picture. Due to the strong demand for US LNG exports and the rising prices of natural gas in Europe and Asia, natural gas futures are still up around 100% for the year. NGAS Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton futures touching lows not seen since July 2021 As traders assessed the potential of larger supplies and lower demand due to quicker rate hikes and economic uncertainty, cotton futures were trading at levels last seen in July 2021. Regarding the supply, the USDA's most recent report showed that the crop of US cotton increased from 12.48 million acres in August to 13.79 million acres in September, or over 19% more than the 11.22 million acres planted in 2021. 375 lakh bales are anticipated to be produced in India, another major producer, during the season 2022–23, assuming that the weather is cooperative through October. Crops are still in danger because of unfavorable weather and pest infestations in the main growing regions. Cotton Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold futures Tuesday saw a minor recovery in gold prices from a recent low as the continuous dollar advance paused, moving closer to $1,630 an ounce. On predictions that the US Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy even more in order to combat rising inflation, the price of yellow metal is still close to its lowest levels in 2.5 years. On Monday, a number of Fed members reaffirmed their commitment to the fight against inflation, despite the possibility of some negative economic consequences and additional market instability. Investors also considered a study from the OECD, which revised its prediction for global economic growth from 2.8% to 2.2% in 2023, citing aggressive monetary tightening in leading nations and the protracted Russia-Ukraine war. Despite the fact that storing non-yielding gold bullion is generally regarded as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of doing so, and investors continue to choose the dollar as a safe haven asset. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Oil trades around USD 100, gold edges higher

WTI Crude Oil Touching January Lows, Palladium Futures Reaching Highest Level In 4-weeks, Coffee Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 28.09.2022 11:45
Summary: Likelihood of a worldwide recession that might harm energy consumption. Palladium prices are 30% lower than they were in March. The drawback is that continued upward momentum has been constrained by a generally stronger dollar. WTI Crude Oil touching January lows On Wednesday, WTI crude futures declined toward $77 per barrel, returning to their lowest levels since early January, as worries that OPEC+ may further restrict supply were countered by a strengthening currency and increasing US petroleum inventories. After a White House official ruled out a currency deal among major nations to reduce the dollar, the dollar index soared to a fresh 20-year high. Prior to the release of official figures later on Wednesday, industry data revealed that the US crude stockpiles increased by over 4 million barrels last week. With aggressive monetary tightening increasing the likelihood of a worldwide recession that might harm energy consumption, oil prices have been under intense selling pressure since June and are expected to report their first quarterly loss in more than two years. While this was going on, dramatic drops in oil prices fueled rumors that OPEC+ might reduce output to stop the decline. Moscow reportedly urged the cartel to reduce production by approximately 1 million barrels per day. WTI Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Palladium touching 4-week highs As the dollar index deviated from 20-year highs, palladium futures increased their gains to $2,200 per ounce, the highest level in almost four weeks. Nevertheless, in spite of rising interest rates and slowing GDP, palladium prices are 30% lower than they were in March. It is anticipated that central banks would keep raising interest rates to keep inflation from soaring even when the economy is slowing. Furthermore, despite the price increase and supply chain disruptions, demand for palladium, which is used in auto catalysts for gasoline-powered vehicles, has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic levels. However, there is still a shortfall on the palladium market. Palladium Futures Price Chart Coffee futures Due to limited supply, Arabica coffee futures on ICE increased their gains from a one-month low reached on September 16th. While Brazilian crop agency Conab reduced its 2022 arabica coffee production estimate from May's projection of 35.71 million bags to 32.41 million 60kg bags, as adverse weather curbed coffee yields, posing risks for next year's production, new data showed ICE-certified arabica stocks fell to a fresh 23-year low of 460,387 bags. At the same time, exports of coffee from Colombia, the second-largest producer of arabica beans in the world, decreased 7% during the first seven months of the year and plunged 21% year over year in August. The drawback is that continued upward momentum has been constrained by a generally stronger dollar. Coffee Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Oil Is An Indicator Of The Health Of The Global Economy

Platinum Weighed Down By A Strong US Dollar, Wheat Supported By Supply Concerns, RBOB Gasoline On The Rise Again

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 29.09.2022 15:26
Summary: 2022 has seen platinum prices drop 10.71%. Wheat futures close to 3-month highs. RBOB Gasoline rises after 100 days of declines. Platinum futures under pressure from strong US Dollar Since the start of 2022, platinum prices have dropped by 103.12 USD/t oz., or 10.71%, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that monitors the benchmark market for this commodity. Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium were all affected negatively by the surging US dollar (DXY), which rose to new 20-year highs on Wednesday morning. As demand from the Chinese automobile industry remained poor and is now being further pushed by a rising dollar, platinum fell 1.1% to $838 per troy ounce (DXY). Additionally down 1.4% to $2,056 per troy ounce was palladium. Platinum Jan ‘23 Futures Price Chart Concerns around a wheat shortage driving prices As fresh escalation threats about the Russian invasion of Ukraine stoked concerns about a shortage, Chicago wheat futures increased and came close to reaching the nearly three-month high from late September. Shortly before holding referendums to join Russia in four regions of Ukraine, President Putin ordered Russia's first military mobilization since World War II. Concerns were raised about Moscow's ability to halt the UN-negotiated safe trade route from Ukrainian Black Sea ports, which would eliminate the newly resumed supply from one of the world's largest wheat exporters and producers. News that increased export levies from the Kremlin would restrict sales of the nation's record harvest this marketing year contributed to further price increases. Chicago Dec ‘22 Wheat Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline futures In response to a hurricane barreling into Florida, President Joe Biden issued a warning to oil corporations not to raise gasoline prices. This is the second time this week that he has expressed concern over rising pump costs. Regular gasoline is becoming more expensive on average in the United States. After falling for nearly 100 consecutive days throughout the summer driving season, the price has now started to rise once more. RBOB Gasoline Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com, capital.com
Corn Prices Recorded Their Biggest Weekly Gain, Gold Demand In India May Suffer A Temporary Setback

Brent Crude Oil Prices Drop For 4th Consecutive Month, Silver Futures, Corn Rising To Start The Week

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 03.10.2022 13:52
Summary: Oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive month in September. A global economic downturn is also affecting bullion investments. Corn futures rise at the start of the week. Brent Crude Oil weighed down by economic recession concerns In response to growing rumors that OPEC+ would consider reducing output by up to 1 million barrels per day at a meeting later this week to support prices, Brent oil futures jumped more than 4% near $89 per barrel on Monday. After lowering output by 100,000 bpd in August to address macroeconomic headwinds, this action will represent the cartel's second consecutive monthly drop. As aggressive monetary tightening by major national economies fuelled concerns about a worldwide economic downturn and reduced energy demand, oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive month in September. Oil prices were also affected by the Covid-related uncertainty in China, the world's largest crude importer, and a strong dollar that increases the cost of goods with US dollar prices for foreign customers. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Hawkish Fed driving investors away from Silver The price of silver in futures contracts was $19.30 per ounce, falling further from the one-month high of $19.8 reached in mid-September as renewed dollar demand and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy of low interest rates for an extended period of time drove investors away from bullion. The Fed predicted that borrowing costs might increase to as much as 4.6% by March 2023 and increased its fund rate by 75 basis points for the third time in a row. With swaps pricing bets that its deposit rate will grow to 3% by May 2023, the ECB is likewise anticipated to rapidly raise its interest rates. A global economic downturn is also affecting bullion investments, as well as jewelry sales from China and India, the world's two largest consumers of technology and autos. Silver Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn prices rise to start the week The price of corn is rising to start the week. Close observation of the Ukraine-Russian conflict's escalation is necessary. Trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that reflects the benchmark market for this commodity shows that corn has grown 92.12 USd/BU or 15.53% since the start of 2022. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com, barchart.com
Chile's Lithium Nationalization and the Global Trend of Resource Nationalism: Implications for EV Supply Chains and Efforts to Strengthen Battery Metal Supply

NGAS Hovering Around 12-week Lows, Cotton Touching 15-month Lows, Gold Futures Weighed Down By Strong US Dollar

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 04.10.2022 12:59
Summary: NGAS prices in the US reached their highest summer levels since 2008. Economic uncertainty around cotton demand persists. Gold futures amidst hawkish central banks. NGAS supply concerns persist Pressure from record domestic supply levels and waning weather-driven demand as the weather turned cooler kept US natural gas contracts around a 12-week low. In the first eight months of 2022, natural gas output in the US is anticipated to have increased by around 4% from a year earlier, hitting a record high of 101 Bcf/d in late September. Additionally, the protracted outage at the Texas Freeport LNG export facility has already decreased US natural gas use for months, leaving more gas for US utilities to add to reserves in preparation for the next winter. A series of heat waves across the US raised the need for cooling at a time when there was an increase in demand for US LNG exports due to worries about shortages in Europe. At the same time, natural gas prices in the US reached their highest summer levels since 2008. NGAS Nov ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton weighed down by demand concerns Trading in cotton futures was below a level not seen since July 2021 as traders considered the likelihood of more supply and less demand as a result of quicker rate hikes and economic uncertainty. Regarding the supply, the USDA's most recent report showed that the crop of US cotton increased from 12.48 million acres in August to 13.79 million acres in September, or over 19% more than the 11.22 million acres planted in 2021. 375 lakh bales are anticipated to be produced in India, another major producer, during the season 2022–23, assuming that the weather is cooperative through October. Crops are still in danger because of unfavorable weather and pest infestations in the main growing regions. Cotton Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold weighed down by strong US Dollar After breaching the crucial $1,700 barrier earlier in the session, gold prices retreated toward $1,690 an ounce on Tuesday, constrained by a strong dollar and amid anticipation that the US Federal Reserve will move through with its aggressive plan to combat high inflation. John Williams, president of the New York Fed Bank, stated on Monday that the US still has "major ways to go" in terms of monetary tightening because interest rates have not yet reached levels that are constrictive for economic growth. The European Central Bank is also anticipated to announce another significant rate increase, as the euro zone's inflation rate surpassed expectations in September to reach a new record high of 10%. The metal, meanwhile, rose more than 2% on Monday to its best levels in almost three weeks as Treasury yields dropped precipitously and the dollar suffered from weaker-than-expected US manufacturing data, which fueled hopes that the US central bank could pause the tempo of rate increases. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Australia Is Expected To Produce A Bumper Year Of Crops

Platinum Futures, Wheat Trading At 3-month Highs, OPEC+ Cuts Gasoline Output By 2million Barrels Per Day

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 06.10.2022 13:10
Summary: After falling for around 100 days, gasoline prices in the US are now rising. Chicago wheat futures were trading, close to the highest price since the end of June. Platinum futures rose 4.25% during 2022. Platinum futures According to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that monitors the benchmark market for this commodity, platinum has dropped 40.90 USD/t oz. or 4.25% since the start of 2022. Platinum Jan ‘23 Futures Price Chart Wheat supply shortages expected In October, Chicago wheat futures were trading, close to the highest price since the end of June due to worries about a shortage of supply. Concerns that Russia would terminate the secure trade route from Ukrainian Black Sea ports that was agreed to in a deal mediated by the UN arose after Russia invaded Ukrainian land and threatened to use nuclear force. The 2022 wheat harvest was also at its second-smallest level in 20 years due to the dry and hot weather in the US. In its annual Small Grains Summary report, the USDA estimated the US wheat harvest at 1.650 billion bushels, which was below than market expectations of 1.778 billion bushels and predictions from August of 1.783 billion bushels. Wheat Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Rising Gasoline prices threaten to harm consumers further After falling for around 100 days, gasoline prices in the US are now rising, posing a fresh threat to consumers who have already been suffering from widespread inflation for more than a year. A 14-day stretch of rising gas prices is the result of upkeep at fuel production facilities, increased demand, and limited fuel supply. According to OPIS, an energy-data company that is a division of Dow Jones & Co., the publisher of The Wall Street Journal, a gallon of normal cost around $3.831 on Wednesday. Analysts predict that the agreement to reduce oil production by 2 million barrels per day by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies led by Russia on Wednesday will result in a further increase in oil prices. The White House announced that it would look at ways to protect American consumers, calling the action unwise. Analysts anticipate that most drivers won't have to deal with $5 gas as they did in June, in part because wintertime demand is usually lower. Although refiners convert to producing winter-grade fuel blended with butane at this time of year, which has reduced production costs and is therefore more affordable, prices are still unusually high, according to Richard Joswick, head of global oil analytics at S&P Global Platts. RBOB Gasoline Nov ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com, wsj.com
Chile's Lithium Nationalization and the Global Trend of Resource Nationalism: Implications for EV Supply Chains and Efforts to Strengthen Battery Metal Supply

OPEC+ To Reduce Production By 2 Million Barrels Per Day, Gold Futures Up 3% This Week, Cotton Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 07.10.2022 12:49
Summary: Brent Crude Oil expected to rise by 11% this week. Gold prices could come under pressure thanks to US Non-farm payroll data. Investors considered the likelihood of more supply and less demand of cotton. Brent Crude Oil expected to rise by 11% this week As OPEC+ agreed to reduce production by 2 million barrels per day, or about 2% of the world's supply, starting in November, the price of Brent crude futures held above $94 per barrel on Friday and was expected to rise by about 11% this week. This decision threatens to further tighten supply ahead of the winter season. Although Saudi Arabia's oil minister said the actual reduction will likely be closer to 1 to 1.1 million barrels because several members are already pumping below targets, that would still represent the largest output decrease since the outbreak began. On Thursday, US President Joe Biden expressed disappointment with the OPEC+ decision and stated that the US was looking for measures to prevent prices from rising. Following the OPEC+ decision, Goldman Sachs considerably increased its oil price projection, predicting that Brent prices will reach $104 per barrel this year and $110 per barrel in 2023. Russia once more issued a warning this week that it won't sell oil to nations who back the US-led effort to set a price restriction on Russian oil, adding to supply fears. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Gold prices risen by 3% this week In the lead-up to the monthly US jobs data that could provide new insights on the Federal Reserve's rate hike path, caution predominated in the market, and gold prices remained muted around $1,710 an ounce on Friday. They have been trading in a range for the past three sessions. The nonfarm payrolls report, which is due later on Friday, is anticipated to indicate that the US economy generated 250,000 jobs in September. If the number is higher than anticipated, rate hike bets will increase and gold prices would be further pressured. The metal has fluctuated throughout the week as opinions on US monetary policy have changed; initially, weak US data drove bullion higher on expectations for a slower pace of tightening, but by the end of the week, pressure from strong US data and hawkish comments from US policymakers had put the metal under pressure. Gold prices, however, have increased by about 3% so far this week and were on track to post their largest weekly gains since March. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton supply expected to increase Trading in cotton futures was below 90 USd/Lbs, a level not seen since July 2021, as investors considered the likelihood of more supply and less demand as a result of accelerated rate hikes and a deteriorating economy. Regarding the supply, the USDA's most recent report showed that the crop of US cotton increased from 12.48 million acres in August to 13.79 million acres in September, or over 19% more than the 11.22 million acres planted in 2021. 375 lakh bales are anticipated to be produced in India, another major producer, during the season 2022–23, assuming that the weather is cooperative through October. Crops are still in danger because of unfavorable weather and pest infestations in the main growing regions. Cotton Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Oil Is An Indicator Of The Health Of The Global Economy

Silver Futures Prices Falling, Brent Crude Supplies Expected To Be Tight, Corn Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 10.10.2022 13:25
Summary: Brent crude oil rising as fears around tight supplies continue. Hawkish Fed driving bullion prices down. Corn futures prices raised by 17.25% in 2022. Brent Crude oil faces a weaker demand outlook On Monday, traders balanced a major output cut by OPEC+ that promises to further tighten supply ahead of winter against a weaker demand outlook resulting from increasingly tighter monetary circumstances. Brent crude futures slipped toward $97 per barrel. Fears that the Federal Reserve may boost borrowing costs to onerous levels increased as a result of the US job market's continued tightness and the country's officials' steadfast hawkish posture, which also fueled worries about the demand and the global economy. The global oil benchmark also increased by around 15% last week as OPEC+ decided to reduce production by 2 million barrels per day, or roughly 2% of the world's supply, starting in November. This would be the largest output reduction since the pandemic's inception. Russia's threat that it won't sell oil to nations who support the US-led effort to impose a price restriction on Russian oil was reinforced last week, adding to supply fears. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart   Silver drops as hawkish fed continues After temporarily reaching a three-month high of $21, spot silver traded around $20 per ounce in October as expectations that the Fed will maintain its hawkish monetary policy stance returned, pushing up the dollar and bond yields. In the meantime, the amount of silver kept in the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) vaults has steadily decreased over the past nine months, reaching a record-low level of 28,506 tonnes valued at $16.4 billion, or roughly 950,208 silver bars. According to the LBMA, this is the least amount of silver stored in vaults since reporting began in July 2016. Silver Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn futures Since the start of 2022, corn prices have climbed by 102.31 USd/BU, or 17.25%, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that monitors the benchmark market for this commodity. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Chile's Lithium Nationalization and the Global Trend of Resource Nationalism: Implications for EV Supply Chains and Efforts to Strengthen Battery Metal Supply

NGAS Inventories Strong, Cotton Futures, Gold Futures Decline For 5th Straight Session

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 11.10.2022 11:14
Summary: US NGAS futures trading low for the past 10 sessions. Golds price decline fueled by a strengthening USD and rising Treasury yields. Cotton crops are in danger due to unfavorable weather and pest infestations. NGAS trading close to 3-month lows For the tenth session running, US natural gas futures have traded below $7/MMBtu, close to the 3-month low of $6.3/MMBtu reached on October 3, and far below the 14-year high of $9.65/MMBtu reached on August 22. This is because production is still at record highs and utilities are able to add more gas to storage due to milder than usual weather. The US utilities added 129 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage in the week ending September 30th, exceeding market forecasts of a 113 bcf build, according to the EIA, which recorded the highest weekly gains in domestic inventories ever. According to Refinitiv, average gas production in the Lower 48 US states increased to a record 100.1 bcfd so far in October from a previous high of 99.4 bcfd in September. Reduced LNG shipments and a decline in demand brought on by Hurricane Ian's power outages also had an impact on gas prices. NGAS Nov ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold declining amidst predictions of aggressive Fed Tuesday's decline in gold prices, which was the fifth straight session, was fueled by a strengthening dollar and rising Treasury yields amid predictions that the US Federal Reserve will continue with its aggressive tightening policies. Such a notion was reinforced by a better-than-expected US jobs report on Friday, and markets now anticipate US inflation data on Thursday, FOMC minutes on Wednesday, and other Fed officials' appearances this week for additional cues. On the other hand, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard stated on Monday that the Fed will be guided by incoming data as the full impact of prior rate rises become clear. She also emphasized the necessity for tight monetary policy to lower inflation. The IMF and World Bank warned of a rising possibility of a worldwide recession, as advanced economies stagnate and persistent inflation increases pressure on major central banks to hike interest rates further. This warning left markets on edge. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton trading low As traders assessed the possibilities of larger supplies and lower demand due to quicker rate hikes and economic uncertainties, cotton futures traded below, a level not seen since July 2021. Regarding the supply, the USDA's most recent report showed that the crop of US cotton increased from 12.48 million acres in August to 13.79 million acres in September, or over 19% more than the 11.22 million acres planted in 2021. 375 lakh bales are anticipated to be produced in India, another major producer, during the season 2022–23, assuming that the weather is cooperative through October. Crops are still in danger because of unfavorable weather and pest infestations in the main growing regions. Cotton Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Crude Oil Price: How Big Could The OPEC+ Supply Cut?

WTI Crude Oil Futures Falling As Demand Forecasts Look Grim, Palladium Futures, Coffee Futures Declining

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 13.10.2022 09:10
Summary: WTI Crude oil dropped around 6% as demand forecasts deteriorated. Palladium futures up almost 13% in 2022. Coffee futures touching 6 week lows. WTI Crude Oil inventories increased WTI crude futures traded near $87 per barrel on Thursday, having dropped about 6% in the previous three days as a result of a deteriorating demand forecast and a significant increase in US crude inventories. On Wednesday, OPEC reduced its projections for the growth of the world's oil demand by 460,000 and 360,000 barrels per day, respectively. They cited high inflation, stagnant development in rich economies, and China's Covid lockdowns as reasons. The US Energy Department also reduced its projections for US and global consumption, with US consumption projected to climb by just 0.9% from a previous forecast of 1.7% in 2023 and by just 1.5% from a previous projection of 2%. US crude stockpiles rose by more over 7 million barrels last week, according to an industry report. Oil prices were also affected by the US Federal Reserve's hawkish minutes, in which the central bank vowed to retain interest rates at their current levels until inflation starts to decline. WTI Crude Nov ‘22 Futures Price Chart Palladium futures Since the start of 2022, the price of palladium has climbed by 242.31 USD/t oz., or 12.81%, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that monitors the benchmark market for this commodity. Palladium Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Coffee Futures touching 6 week lows As showers in Brazil's coffee belt may improve the crop forecast, Arabica coffee futures on ICE extended losses toward $2.15 per pound, approaching levels not seen in more than six weeks. Rainfall in Minas Gerais, which makes up around 30% of Brazil's arabica crop, is predicted to bring much-needed moisture and enhance prospects for the crop in the top producer in the world the following year. The most recent statistics revealed that on October 3rd, ICE-certified arabica stocks hit a new 23-year low of 417,306 bags. Coffee Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Portugal's Economic Outlook: Growth Forecast and Inflation Trends

Soft Commodities: Tighter Corn Market May Make Prices Increase

ING Economics ING Economics 13.10.2022 11:13
Yesterday's WASDE report was largely constructive. For the US market, corn and wheat saw lower 2022/23 ending stocks. However, the market was expecting even more aggressive reductions. As for soybeans, unchanged US ending stocks proved supportive for prices US corn yields revised lower The USDA revised lower its estimate for US corn stocks at the end of 2022/23 to 1.17b bushels compared to an earlier estimate of 1.22b bushels. However, this still left stocks above the roughly 1.13b bushels the market was expecting. The move was largely due to lower beginning stocks which were lowered by around 0.15b bushels. The agency also lowered domestic corn production estimates for this season from 13.94b bushels to 13.89b bushels on account of lower yields. Export estimates were also revised down by 126m bushels to 2.15b bushels. For the global market, the USDA reduced its estimate for global ending stocks from 304.5mt to 301.2mt; again, largely on account of smaller stocks at the start of the season. Global beginning stocks were revised down by around 5.1mt due to lower stocks in the US and Ukraine. The revised numbers are largely in line with market expectations of around 301.9mt. Global corn output was lowered by 3.8mt to 1,168.7mt due to lower supply from the US (-1.2mt) and the EU (-2.6mt). Meanwhile, global demand estimates fell from 1,180.2mt to 1,174.6mt.  While the numbers, particularly for the US were not as bullish as the market was expecting, both the US and the global market continue to tighten, which should provide support to prices. Corn supply/demand balance Source: USDA US soybean output cut The USDA revised lower production estimates for US soybeans by 69m bushels to 4.3b bushels. This was due to a reduction in yield expectations, which were revised down from 50.5 bu/acre to 49.8 bu/acre. Both yields and production came in below market expectations and this has provided a boost to soybean prices. Meanwhile, the agency estimates that lower output and increased competition from South America could impact exports, which were cut from 2.09b bushels to 2.05b bushels. US ending stocks for 2022/23 were left unchanged at 200m bushels; however, this was below the roughly 245m bushels the market was expecting. For the global market, 2022/23 ending stocks were increased from 98.9mt to 100.5mt, largely on account of higher supplies from Brazil. This number was also slightly higher than the 99.7mt the market was expecting. Global soybean production estimates increased by around 1.2mt to 391mt, which was driven by a 3mt increase in Brazilian supply. Global demand numbers were also increased by around 2.5mt to 380.2mt for 2022/23. Soybeans supply/demand balance Source: USDA Wheat balance sheet tightens The USDA lowered US wheat ending stock estimates for 2022/23 from 610m bushels to 576m bushels (lowest since 2007/08); although it was still higher than the roughly 563m bushels expected. The agency lowered production estimates from 1.78b bushels to 1.65b bushels due to falling acreage and yields. The global wheat balance saw few changes in aggregate with 2022/23 ending stock estimates revised down slightly from 268.6mt to 267.5mt, which was in line with market expectations. 2022/23 output was cut from 783.9mt to 781.7mt with key reductions coming from the US (-3.6mt) and Argentina (-1.5mt). Wheat supply/demand balance Source: USDA Read this article on THINK TagsWheat WASDE USDA Soybeans Corn Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Oil trades around USD 100, gold edges higher

Silver Futures Weighed Down By Hawkish Fed, Brent Crude Oil Demand Outlook Weakened, Corn Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 17.10.2022 12:26
Summary: Demand for silver continues to weaken. Increasing macro headwinds have investors concerned about a deteriorating outlook for demand. Silver Futures dampened by hawkish fed Spot silver prices declined to below $19.3 an ounce in the second week of October, retreating significantly from the three-month high of $21.1 reached on October 4th and tracking the decline in US Treasury notes as expectations of an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve continue to dampen demand for non-interest-bearing bullion investments. After the stronger-than-expected September jobs data and comments from Fed policymakers emphasizing the need to lower inflation, hopes that the US central bank could slow the pace of upcoming rate hikes were dashed. Members of the ECB board have also maintained that borrowing prices must be restricted since markets are currently underestimating inflation, which might last until 2025. Silver Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Brent Crude Oil futures As investors balanced a weaker prognosis for the global economy against tighter supply, Brent crude futures were trading around the $91 per barrel mark. Increasing macro headwinds, such as high inflation, tighter financial conditions, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the ongoing coronavirus outbreak, have investors concerned about a deteriorating outlook for demand. Any upward movement has also been constrained by the US Federal Reserve's active tightening drive against inflationary excess, a stronger dollar, and China's restrictions brought on by the Coronavirus. As OPEC and its allies, including Russia, decided to further reduce output before the European Union oil embargo, rising concerns about tighter global supplies acted as a floor beneath prices. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Corn Futures In the second week of October, Chicago corn futures remained close to the $6.9 per bushel level after the most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) revealed reducing worldwide stockpiles. The USDA also predicted decreased exports and a tighter supply within the country. Iran, Japan, and Vietnam had their import predictions cut, while the EU and the US had theirs lifted. In other developments, it has been claimed that China is considering beginning to purchase corn from Brazil, bypassing US grain growers. Investors are concerned about the world's food supply this winter due to the ongoing unpredictability surrounding the Russo-Ukrainian War. The price of corn is still close to the three-month high ($7.0 per bushel) set on October 10. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Central Banks' Rates Outlook: Fed Treads Cautiously, ECB Prepares for Hike

NGAS Futures Touch Lowest Level In 3 Months, Cotton Touching April Lows, US Dollar Retracts - Gold Supported

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 18.10.2022 11:31
Summary: Natural gas futures fell by about 7% on Monday. UK's decision to rescind nearly all of its proposed tax cuts increased risk appetite. Persistent demand worries weighing on cotton. NGAS futures fall In response to record domestic production levels and weaker weather-driven demand, US natural gas futures fell by about 7% on Monday, to the lowest in three months. According to the most recent EIA data, US utilities added 125 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage last week, which is significantly more than typical and more than the market anticipated at 123 bcf. Due to the moderate weather and increased wind power, there were gains above 100 bcf for the fourth week in a row. According to Refinitiv, average gas production in the Lower 48 US states increased to a record 99.9 bcfd so far in October from a previous high of 99.4 bcfd in September. Reduced LNG shipments and a decline in demand brought on by Hurricane Ian's power outages also had an impact on gas prices. NGAS Futures Price Chart Gold futures stabilized On Tuesday, the price of gold stabilized around $1,650 an ounce, halting a recent decline as the dollar lost some gain following the UK's decision to rescind nearly all of its proposed tax cuts, which increased risk appetite in the market. The US Federal Reserve is expected to tighten more in order to reduce inflation, which has continued to put pressure on the price of metal. Recent data revealed that US year-ahead inflation expectations rose, supporting the argument for more rate increases combined with a hot inflation report from September. Despite ongoing inflationary pressures and growing chances of a worldwide recession, gold also continued to perform poorly as a safe-haven asset as investors fled to the dollar due to rising US interest rates. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton touching April 2021 lows Cotton futures fell to a level last seen in April 2021 due to persistent demand worries, while rising interest rates strengthened the dollar and reduced demand for commodities priced in US dollars. On the supply side, however, an optimistic report from the US Department of Agriculture provided some support for the fiber. In light of the ongoing uncertainty on the extent to which unfavorable weather conditions, such as drought and heavy rain, may reduce output in top producer Texas and other states for the 2022–2023 season, the USDA has lowered its outlook for domestic supplies. Cotton Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
The Commodities: The EU Is Looking At A Price Cap Level Of Around US$60/bbl

WTI Crude Oil Recover Slightly From 2-week Lows, Palladium Futures Hitting 2-week Lows, Coffee Futures Hit 1-year Lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 19.10.2022 14:32
Summary: Sanctions by the EU against Russian crude threatened to jeopardize the US's planned release of emergency oil stocks. Dollar index climbed back toward 20-year highs following a strong CPI reading. A stronger dollar and an improving crop forecast causing coffee futures to drop. WTI Crude Oil edged above 2 week lows As the latest sanctions by the European Union against Russian crude threatened to jeopardize the US's planned release of emergency oil stocks, WTI crude futures edged above $84 a barrel on Wednesday, recovering from two-week lows. Tankers transporting Russian crude beyond a predetermined price level would be subject to shipping restrictions from the EU, obliging shipowners to abide by the Group of Seven agreement to cap the price of Russian oil. In the meantime, it has been claimed that the US will release 15 million barrels of oil from its emergency supplies in order to lower the high cost of gasoline this winter. Following a White House charge that Saudi Arabia forced other countries to endorse the plan, Malaysia defended an OPEC+ decision to restrict oil production. It said the group “collectively took into consideration factors that include market fundamentals, particularly to address uncertainties in the global oil supply and demand situation.” WTI Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Palladium falls to lowest price in 2-weeks Palladium futures dropped to $2,070 per ounce, the lowest price in more than two weeks, as the dollar index climbed back toward 20-year highs following a strong CPI reading, which hit commodities. Despite rising interest rates and slower GDP, palladium prices are 30% lower than they were in March. It is anticipated that central banks would keep raising interest rates to keep inflation from soaring even when the economy is slowing. Furthermore, despite the price increase and supply chain disruptions, demand for palladium, which is used in auto catalysts for gasoline-powered vehicles, has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic levels. However, there is still a shortfall on the palladium market. Palladium Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Coffee extended losses to 1 year lows A stronger dollar and an improving crop forecast in top producer Brazil as a result of reports of ample rain that may encourage blooming for next year's coffee crop caused Arabica coffee futures on ICE to extend losses, levels not seen in almost a year. The most recent statistics revealed that on October 13th, ICE-certified arabica stocks reached a new 23-year low of 408,419 bags. Additionally, the world's largest consumer of coffee, Europe, has expressed concerns about the demand due to continued economic issues, according to investment bank Itau BBA. Coffee Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Australia Is Expected To Produce A Bumper Year Of Crops

Platinum Futures, RBOB Gasoline Prices Remain Stubbornly High, Wheat Futures Touch 1-month Lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 20.10.2022 12:53
Summary: Platinum futures prices down 7.45% in 2022. 3rd week of October saw 1-month lows for Wheat. RBOB Gasoline prices are higher than it was for at least nine of the previous election cycles. Platinum futures dropped in 2022 Since the start of 2022, platinum prices have dropped by 71.71 USD/t oz., or 7.45%, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that monitors the benchmark market for this commodity. Platinum Jan ‘23 Futures Price Chart Wheat facing supply shortages Chicago wheat futures dropped in the third week of October, lingering at levels not seen in a month, as the prospect of a supply shortage was allayed by progress in negotiations for grain trading agreements with the Ukraine. According to UN spokesman Dujarric, ongoing negotiations with Moscow over the expansion of the current agreement establishing a trade corridor for Black Sea ports have been positive and productive. This raises hopes that major exporter Ukraine will be able to ship wheat and free up much-needed silo storage space for the current harvest. According to the most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), wheat exports will drop to a 50-year low as a result of low water levels along the Mississippi River slowing the shipments, and US domestic stocks have accumulated more than anticipated. Wheat Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline remain stubbornly high Just three weeks out from the midterm elections, US pump prices are still stubbornly high, and the states suffering the most are those that will decide which party will control Congress. The most prominent inflation warning in America is the pump price, which is displayed on street corners around the nation. According to AAA data, the price of petrol was $3.88 per gallon during the first half of October, which is higher than it was for at least nine of the previous election cycles. RBOB Gasoline Nov ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Solid Wage Growth in Poland Signals Improving Labor Market Conditions

UK Retail Sales Data Missed Market Expectations, Coming In Hotter Than Expected

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.10.2022 08:41
Summary: U.K Retails data came in hotter than expected. Consumer spending has largely decreased in the U.K. UK Retail Sales Data UK Retail Sales Data heavily missed market expectations on Friday, with YoY data coming in at -6.9% and market expectations that were originally set at -5.0%, and MoM data also missing market expectations, coming in at -1.4% with expectations originally set at -0.5%. The data from both YoY & MoM missed market expectations by a long way, indicating that the U.K economy had deteriorated throughout September more than the markets had expected. Retail Sales track changes in the total amount of retail sales that have been adjusted for inflation. It is the most important gauge of consumer spending, which dominates all other forms of economic activity. The lower than expected readings could be interpreted as bearish or negative, as consumers in the U.K heavily slowdown the spending as the looming recession becomes more real. Effect on the market It could be said that the retail sales help investors to gauge the health of an economy and the existence of inflationary pressures. Consumer spending makes up a large part of the U.Ks GDP, the figures that largely missed market expectations could be interpreted as the U.K economy heading into a recession. The market could expect that the Bank of England (BoE) will continue on their interest rate hiking cycle, and perhaps we could see the BoE turn even more hawkish in their fight against rising inflation. The initial market reaction for the GBP/USD currency pair saw the GBP weaken against the USD, the same goes for the EUR/GBP currency pair, which saw the EUR strengthen against the GBP initially. The FTSE 100 is up as of the release of the Retail Sales Data. Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, ft.com
The Commodities Feed: First US crude draw this year

Gold’s Rebound In The Wake Of Treasury Note Recovery, WTI Crude Oil Weighed Down By Potential Global Recession, Wheat Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.10.2022 19:46
Summary: Gold rebounded following the recovery for Treasury notes. WTI crude declines as recession potential increases. Wheat drops amidst prospects of positive negotiations between Russia & The Ukraine. Gold’s price rebound As hitting a three-week low of $1,620 earlier in the session, gold prices rebounded over $1,640 an ounce on Friday, following the recovery for Treasury notes after the dollar retreated from recent highs. The Wall Street Journal said that some Federal Reserve members were unsure about whether following through on the aggressively hawkish stance would result in overtightening, which increased demand for bullion. At its upcoming meeting in November, the US central bank is anticipated to increase its funds rate by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row, intensifying its fight against rising inflation. The spike in the DXY increased the potential cost of storing non-interest-bearing metal, but gold prices are still not far from the 18-month low of $1,613 set on September 28. Prices for gold are predicted to end the week unchanged. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart WTI Crude Oil weighed down by global recession potential WTI oil futures hit a low at $83 per barrel and are now headed for a weekly decline of over 1% as persistent concerns about a potential global recession-driven demand fall are offset by expectations for increased Chinese demand and OPEC+ supply cutbacks. Investors are becoming more concerned about a worsening economic forecast in the face of escalating macro challenges, such as high inflation and tighter financial conditions. Expectations of reducing coronavirus-induced limitations and an uptick in economic activity in top importer China put a floor under prices. Meanwhile, amid growing rumors that the oil cartel could further interfere in markets to support prices, OPEC and its allies, including Russia, agreed to cut production by 2 million barrels per day in November, the largest reduction since the start of the crisis. Concerns about a shortage of supplies were also heightened by a pending ban on Russian crude by the European Union. WTI Crude Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Wheat drops amidst prospects of positive negotiations between Russia & The Ukraine In the third week of October, Chicago wheat futures dropped and remained stable month, as success in negotiations for grain trade agreements with Ukraine allayed worries about a supply shortage. According to UN spokesman Dujarric, ongoing negotiations with Moscow over the expansion of the current agreement establishing a trade corridor for Black Sea ports have been positive and productive. This raises hopes that major exporter Ukraine will be able to ship wheat and free up much-needed silo storage space for the current harvest. According to the most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), wheat exports will drop to a 50-year low as a result of low water levels along the Mississippi River slowing the shipments, and US domestic stocks have accumulated more than anticipated. Wheat Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
The Special Edition Of The Saxo Market Call Podcast: The Wild Year Of 2022 For Commodities And What May Be In Store In 2023

Silver Rising Amidst Expectations Of A Dovish Fed, Recession Fears Keeping Brent Crude Oil Low, Corn Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 24.10.2022 15:00
Summary: Fed members were growing anxious around rate hikes continuing at the current rate. Investors are becoming more concerned about a worsening economic forecast. Corn has gained 14.98% in 2022. Silver futures rising The price of spot silver was $19.2 per ounce, which is still near to the two-week high of $19.4 per ounce reached on October 21 amid expectations that the Federal Reserve would pause in raising interest rates. According to reports, Fed members were growing more anxious that, should rate hikes continue at the current rate, the central bank might be unduly aggressive, halting the dollar's rally and boosting demand for gold. However, the central bank is anticipated to increase its funds rate by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row next week. Even though bullion investments are frequently employed as an inflation hedge, holding non-interest-bearing assets becomes more costly as interest rates rise. Silver Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Brent Crude Oil remains low amidst recession fears On Monday, concerns over a projected worldwide recession-driven decline in demand kept the price of Brent crude futures below the $92 per barrel barrier. Investors are becoming more concerned about a worsening economic forecast in the face of escalating macro challenges, such as high inflation and tighter financial conditions. Furthermore, according to Chinese customs data, demand from the biggest crude importer in the world remained muted in September as a result of ongoing coronavirus-related limitations and export restrictions on fuel. Even still, amid growing rumors that the oil cartel will further interfere in markets to support prices, OPEC and its allies, including Russia, decided to cut production by 2 million barrels per day in November, the largest reduction since the start of the crisis. Concerns about a shortage of supplies were also heightened by a pending ban on Russian crude by the European Union. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Corn futures Trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that reflects the benchmark market for this commodity shows that corn has gained 88.85 USd/BU or 14.98% since the start of 2022. Corn Futures Price Chart Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
NGAS Prices Are Close To 7-Month Lows, Cotton Futures Touching December 2020 Lows, Gold Weighed Down By Inflationary Pressures

NGAS Prices Are Close To 7-Month Lows, Cotton Futures Touching December 2020 Lows, Gold Weighed Down By Inflationary Pressures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 25.10.2022 14:00
Summary: Prices have dropped about 60% in the past nine weeks. Persistent demand concerns and rising interest rates causing cotton to decline. Investors await further information on the direction of US Fed monetary tightening. NGAS rose during the 4th week of October On the assumption that LNG shipments would rise as a result of the conclusion of maintenance outages at plants like Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Cove Point LNG, and Freeport LNG, US natural gas futures were up in the fourth week of October. Nevertheless, due to projections of lower weather-driven demand, record domestic production levels, and decreased LNG exports that allowed utilities to inject more gas into storage, prices have dropped about 60% in the past nine weeks and are still very close to seven-month lows. Below Refinitiv's forecast on Friday, the average US gas demand, including exports, is anticipated to increase this week. In the meantime, Lower 48 US states have seen an increase in average gas production, rising to 99.5 bcfd so far in October from a record 99.4 bcfd in September. According to the EIA data, US utilities added more gas than anticipated (111 bcf) to storage last week, well exceeding the 91 bcf that was injected during the same week last year and the 73 bcf that was added on average over the previous five years (2017–2021). NGAS Nov ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton supply and demand prospects are falling Due to persistent demand concerns and rising interest rates, which strengthened the currency and reduced the appeal of commodities priced in US dollars, cotton futures fell to a level not seen since December 2020. On the supply side, however, an optimistic report from the US Department of Agriculture provided some support for the fiber. In light of the ongoing uncertainty on the extent to which unfavorable weather conditions, such as drought and heavy rain, may reduce output in top producer Texas and other states for the 2022–2023 season, the USDA has lowered its outlook for domestic supplies. Cotton Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold weighed down by inflation worries After swinging wildly in the previous two sessions, gold prices stabilized near $1,650 an ounce on Tuesday as investors carefully awaited further information on the direction of US Federal Reserve monetary tightening. Fed officials are likely to take into account a lesser increase in December amid worries about overtightening after delivering a widely anticipated 75 basis point rate boost in November, the WSJ reported on Friday. Such a view was bolstered by data showing that private sector activity in the US shrank for the fourth consecutive month in October, indicating that the economy is already feeling the effects of tighter financial conditions. Investors continued to be wary of inflation worries, which might trigger another surge in the currency and Treasury yields. Amid increased political and economic unpredictability throughout the world, markets also maintained a strong position in the dollar as a safe-haven asset and as an alternative to gold. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
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US WTI Crude Stockpiles Rising, Palladium Futures, Coffee Futures Approaching 1-year Lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.10.2022 18:00
Summary: Market concerns about a worldwide recession persisted. Palladium prices have increased by 2.27% since the start of 2022. Coffee prices are driven down by a stronger dollar and an improving crop outlook. WTI Crude Oil futures falling Following a near 1% increase in the previous session, WTI oil futures on Wednesday dropped below $85 per barrel as an industry report indicated a significant build in US crude stockpiles and market concerns about a worldwide recession persisted. US crude stockpiles increased by approximately 4.5 million barrels last week, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute, greatly above forecasts for a boost of only over 200,000 barrels. Investors also were worrying about the possibility of a worldwide economic downturn, as this week's weak US data suggested that the recent, abrasive monetary tightening was already having an effect on the economy. As investors considered the OPEC+ plan to cut output by 2 million barrels from November as well as the impending European Union ban on Russian crude in December, oil prices stayed in a sideways trading range for the past five sessions. WTI Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Palladium Futures up overall in 2022 Increased 42.98 USD/t oz for palladium. Trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity indicates the price has increased by 2.27% since the start of 2022. Palladium Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Coffee futures weighed down by strong dollar Arabica coffee futures on ICE continued to decline, approaching lows not seen in more than a year, as a result of a stronger dollar and an improving crop outlook in top producer Brazil as a result of reports of plentiful rain that may have accelerated flowering for the crop of coffee that will be harvested in 2019. The most recent statistics revealed that on October 13th, ICE-certified arabica stocks reached a new 23-year low of 408,419 bags. Additionally, the largest consumer region in the globe, Europe, is concerned about the demand for coffee due to continued economic issues, according to investment bank Itau BBA. Coffee Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Agricultural Commodities Markets Are Going To Remain Sensitive To Developments In The Russia-Ukraine War

Platinum Futures, Gasoline Prices Are Declining, Wheat Futures Recovering From 5-week Lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 27.10.2022 17:04
Summary: Chicago wheat futures were recovering from the five-week low. Gas prices are not far from where they were when Russia invaded Ukraine. Platinum prices have declined by 0.8% in 2022. Wheat futures demand prospects look dim In response to concerns over supply and a weaker dollar, Chicago wheat futures were recovering from the five-week low of $8.3 set on October 25. The Rosario grain exchange reduced its forecast for the 2022–23 harvest by 1.3 million tonnes to 13.7 million due to droughts in Argentina. In the interim, Ukrainian authorities said that strikes by Russia prevented Ukrainian ports from operating to their full capacity, which was reduced to 25%. The exporter will be able to ship wheat and free up much-needed silo storage space, the UN continued to express optimism regarding the expansion of the safe trade corridor for Ukrainian Black Sea ports. Demand indicators remained disappointing in the interim. The latest indication of weaker international demand came from data from the United States, which showed a 46% weekly fall in exports for the week ending October 21. Additionally, according to Chinese customs figures, 370 000 tonnes of wheat were imported in September, which is a 40% decrease from the same month last year. Wheat Futures Price Charts RBOB Gasoline prices are declining In advance of the midterm US elections, gas prices are declining, relieving pressure on Democrats who are dealing with high fuel prices in crucial swing states and elsewhere across the nation. Since its peak of more than $5 in June, the national average price for a gallon of gasoline has dropped by $1.25, prompting administration officials like White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain to draw attention to the drops. According to Biden officials who regularly review the data, the national average price is currently not far from where it was when Russia invaded Ukraine in late February. Officials from the Biden administration have nonetheless stated in closed-door conversations that the national average should be closer to $3.20. RBOB Gasoline Futures Price Chart Platinum Futures Since the start of 2022, the price of platinum has dropped by 7.67 USD/t oz., or 0.80%, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that monitors the benchmark market for this commodity. Platinum Futures Price Chart Sources: bloomberg.com, finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Chile's Lithium Nationalization and the Global Trend of Resource Nationalism: Implications for EV Supply Chains and Efforts to Strengthen Battery Metal Supply

Gold On Course To Increase For The Second Consecutive Week, Brent Crude Likely Facing Supply Tightening, Cotton Futures Touching 22-month Lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 28.10.2022 17:01
Summary: Gold on course to increase for the second consecutive week. Brent crude futures expected to close the week higher. Stronger dollar and continuing demand worries driving cotton down. Gold supported by weak US economic statistics Taking advantage of steep drops in the dollar and Treasury yields due to rising predictions that the US Federal Reserve may pause the pace of rate hikes later in the year, gold prices remained stable over $1,660 an ounce on Friday and were on course to increase for the second consecutive week. Although markets started to predict that the Fed would become less aggressive in December due to worries about overtightening, the Fed is largely expected to deliver its fourth consecutive 75 basis point rate increase in November. Such forecasts were bolstered by a deluge of weak US economic statistics earlier this week, but the third quarter's better-than-expected US GDP figures provided a counterbalance. Investors continued to be wary of inflation worries, which might trigger another surge in the currency and Treasury yields. Kristalina Gerogieva, managing director of the IMF, urged central banks to keep raising interest rates to combat inflation until they reached a "neutral" level. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Brent Crude Oil facing potential supply tightening Despite easing toward $96 per barrel on Friday, Brent crude futures were still expected to close the week higher due to a tightening supply forecast, record US exports, and a steep decline in the value of the US dollar. Last week, the US exported a record quantity of oil and fuel, despite the fact that local fuel markets experienced seasonal lows in fuel stockpiles, which hampered the forecast for supply. A dramatic decline in the value of the dollar helped to support oil prices as well by lowering the cost of commodities with US dollar prices for consumers using other currencies. Along with snapping a four-month losing streak, the OPEC+ plan to reduce output by 2 million barrels per day starting in November and the intensifying Western sanctions on Russian oil are both driving up oil prices in October. Investors continued to be wary in the meanwhile as the prognosis for demand remained gloomy due to escalating inflation, rising interest rates, and growing recessionary threats. Brent Crude Futures Price Chart Cotton touch 22-month lows The price of cotton futures fell to a 22-month low of 75.1 USd/Lbs under the strain of a stronger dollar and continuing demand worries brought on by difficult economic conditions. According to the most recent estimate from the US Department of Agriculture, both acreage and output grew, and worldwide cotton production is predicted to reach 118.1 million bales in 2022–23, a 2% rise over the previous year. China, Brazil, and India contributed more to the increase in output than the United States and Pakistan did to the decrease. Cotton Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
Australia Is Expected To Produce A Bumper Year Of Crops

Soft commodities - corn and wheat up. Crude oil prices may end October above-the-line after very long time

ING Economics ING Economics 31.10.2022 09:59
It’s not surprising that wheat and corn opened higher this morning after Russia suspended the Black Sea grain deal over the weekend. Meanwhile, markets will be focused on the outcome of the FOMC meeting later this week and looking for any hints or signals that the Fed may slow the pace of rate hikes in upcoming meetings Energy - oil set to end the month higher The oil market has seen quite a bit of strength over October and is set to finish the month higher, after four consecutive months of declines. Announced OPEC+ supply cuts have provided support to the market at a time when there is plenty of demand uncertainty. OPEC+ supply cuts are set to start tomorrow which should see 1.1MMbbls/d of supply taken off the market. In addition to this, there is still plenty of uncertainty over the full impact of the EU ban on Russian seaborne crude oil, which comes into force on 5 December. Clearly, it is constructive for the market, but how constructive will depend on how much more Russian oil the likes of China and India can absorb. Speculators have been more positive on the market over the last month. The latest positioning data shows that speculators increased their net long in ICE Brent by 28,574 lots over the last reporting week - to leave them with a net long of 205,451 lots as of last Tuesday, which is the largest position speculators have held since June. Looking further at ICE Brent positioning data and focusing on commercial positioning shows that producers have been fairly active in hedging over the last couple of months. The gross producer short in ICE Brent stood at 1.21m lots as of last Tuesday, up from 978k lots in early September. This increased producer hedging could be driven by growing uncertainty over the demand outlook. Although, it is worth pointing out that the gross producer short is still well below levels seen pre-2022. Read next: Elon Musk Closes Twitter Deal, Apple Reported Record Revenue, ECB May Turn Dovish| FXMAG.COM As for the calendar this week, ADIPEC kicks off in Abu Dhabi today, which will continue through until Thursday. Speakers at the event will include a number of OPEC oil ministers and so expect plenty of noise around the market outlook and also more comments and views on the recent OPEC+ supply cuts. However, the event this week which could have the biggest impact on the oil market is the FOMC meeting. Expectations are that the Fed will hike interest rates by 75bps. However, the market will also be eager for any signals on what the Fed could do at its December meeting. There is a growing expectation that the Fed could slow the pace of hikes In December. Any hints from the Fed of a slowing in the pace of hikes would likely provide some support to risk assets, including oil. Metals – Glencore's production falls, cuts guidance Glencore reported lower production in Q3 for half the commodities it mines and lowered full-year guidance on zinc, nickel and coal. The company cited extreme weather in Australia, industrial action at nickel assets in Canada and Norway, and supply chain issues in Kazakhstan caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Glencore’s copper production fell 14% YoY to 770.5kt, while zinc output fell 18% YoY to 699.6kt in the first nine months of the year. The company reduced zinc production guidance to 945kt for the year, compared to its previous guidance of 1.01mt due to the emerging supply-chain issues due to Russia-Ukraine war. In ferrous metals, the most active contract for iron ore trading on SGX is on course for five consecutive sessions of declines with prices trading down to an  intra-day low of US$75/t this morning- the lowest levels since September 2020. The raw material prices are already down more than 50% from the recent highs of US$171/t seen in March this year. The extended weakness in China’s property sector along with the nation’s Covid restrictions is weighing on steel consumption at a time when ex-Chinese demand is also bleak due to tighter monetary policy and a worsening energy crisis in Europe. Over the coming weeks, potential winter output curbs in China would result in rising stockpiles of iron ore, further weighing on the prices. Meanwhile, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., the world’s largest steelmaker, highlighted a weak outlook for the steel industry in China last week and forecasts that steel demand in the country could fall 5% this year. Chinese manufacturing PMI data for October, which was released this morning will certainty not help with the PMI falling from 50.1 to 49.2 - leaving it in contraction territory. Agriculture - Russia suspends Black Sea grains export deal It’s no surprise that CBOT wheat and corn opened significantly higher this morning after Russia suspended the Black Sea grains export deal, following attacks on Russian navy vessels in the Black Sea. The latest data from the UN shows that a little over 9.3mt of grains and foodstuff have been exported from Ukraine under the deal since August. However, around 2.65mt of this is still awaiting inspection and its unclear what will happen to these cargoes now. The deal was originally set to expire on 19 November, but there was hope that it would be extended. We will need to see if involved parties can  somehow put the deal back on track, but clearly there is the very real risk that Ukrainian grain exports see a significant slowdown due to these latest developments. Previously, Ukraine’s Grain Association had said that Ukraine could export 50mt of grains if the deal was prolonged, without it the maximum volume would likely be around 35mt. Read this article on THINK TagsRussia-Ukraine Oil Metals Grains China PMI Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
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Prospects Of A More Dovish Fed Supporting Silver, Corn Futures Rally, Brent Crude Weighed Down By Recession Fears

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 31.10.2022 17:42
Summary: Expectations that the Fed will change course by December sparked a bond rally. Worries about a possible world recession and a drop in oil consumption. Chicago maize futures surged to their highest levels in three months. Silver supported by a potentially dovish fed On optimism that the US Federal Reserve would soon cut down the rate of interest rate hikes to avoid overtightening, spot silver extended gains to beyond $19.5 per ounce, moving farther away from a 1-1/2-month low of $18.3 reached in mid-October. Investors are now essentially certain that the US central bank will announce a fourth consecutive 75 basis point rate hike on November 2, but expectations that the Fed will change course by December sparked a bond rally and caused the dollar to weaken, which increased the appeal of non-interest bearing assets. Even still, silver's price has dropped more than 25% from its March peak, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine sparked a surge in precious metals. Silver Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Brent Crude weighed down by recession worries On Monday, the price of Brent crude futures dropped below $95 per barrel as investors became uneasy over persistent worries about a possible world recession and a drop in oil consumption, particularly in China. Concerns that new coronavirus-induced restrictions may harm economic activity and reduce oil consumption were stoked by factory activity falling short of forecasts in the world's largest crude consumer. Nevertheless, despite limited worldwide supplies, the international benchmark increased by more than 10% in October, putting it on course to post its first monthly rise in five. The most significant reduction in output since the start of the crisis was reached in November by OPEC and its partners, including Russia, amid growing rumors that the oil cartel will continue to interfere in markets to support prices. As a component of broader penalties for the invasion of Ukraine, the European Union's ban on Russian oil is also scheduled to go into force in December. Brent Crude Futures Price Chart Corn spiked after Russia pulled out on UN-mediated agreement After Moscow abruptly backed out of the UN-mediated agreement that provided a secure trading route for grain supplies leaving Ukrainian Black Sea ports, Chicago maize futures surged to their highest levels in three months. Although the West disputed the prospect, Russia cited ships being used to deliver weaponry to Ukraine as justification for the cancellation. Following a Russian military embargo that had made seaborne grain exports from Ukraine impossible since February, an agreement that went into effect in July permitted Ukrainian grains to be transported on board ships carrying food from Ukraine. Around 20% of the world's corn exports were made through Black Sea ports prior to the invasion. In addition to prohibiting exports, the stoppage of port activities will prevent Ukraine from releasing crucial storage space in silos as the harvest for the 2022–2023 marketing year is underway, severely endangering the availability of food throughout the world. Corn Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
Chile's Lithium Nationalization and the Global Trend of Resource Nationalism: Implications for EV Supply Chains and Efforts to Strengthen Battery Metal Supply

NGAS Down 10% On Tuesday, Gold Increased Ahead Of Wednesday's Fed Announcement, Cotton Futures Touching 22-month Lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 01.11.2022 20:58
Summary: US natural gas futures fell over 10%. Gold rose ahead of the Fed monetary policy announcement tomorrow. The price of cotton futures fell to a 22-month low. NGAS close at their lowest since May US natural gas futures fell over 10%, closing in on their lowest level since May at $5.6/MMBtu, as utilities continued to inject gas into storage for the winter despite expectations for milder weather over the next two weeks that should reduce demand for cooling. As record production levels and weaker export demand, notably from Europe, alarmed investors, natural gas prices in the US have now fallen more than 40% from their peak in August. The Cove Point LNG plant in Maryland owned by Berkshire Hathaway Energy, meanwhile, resumed operations on October 28 following a month of maintenance. In early to mid-November, the Freeport plant in Texas is also expected to partially begin operations. NGAS Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold increased on Wednesday Ahead of the highly anticipated Fed monetary policy announcement due tomorrow, gold prices increased by about 1% to trade above $1,650 an ounce on Tuesday as the dollar surge came to an end and bond rates dropped. The central bank is expected to deliver another rate increase of gigantic proportions (75 bps), but the likelihood that it will limit the tempo of hikes in December is growing. In other countries, the Reserve Bank of Australia increased interest rates once more by 25 basis points in November, while the Bank of England is scheduled to raise rates once more on Thursday. Despite Tuesday's advances, gold is still under severe pressure and is not far from lows not seen since April 2020 because keeping non-yielding bullion has a higher opportunity cost due to a general increase in borrowing costs. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton under strain of the strong USD The price of cotton futures fell to a 22-month low of 75.1 USd/Lbs under the strain of a stronger dollar and continuing demand worries brought on by difficult economic conditions. According to the most recent estimate from the US Department of Agriculture, both acreage and output grew, and worldwide cotton production is predicted to reach 118.1 million bales in 2022–23, a 2% rise over the previous year. China, Brazil, and India contributed more to the increase in output than the United States and Pakistan did to the decrease. Cotton Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
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Platinum Futures, Efforts To Slow Gas Prices Continue, Wheat Futures Down 6%

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 02.11.2022 16:34
Summary: Platinum futures are down 1.11% during 2022. Russia declared that, once its requests have been satisfied by Ukrainian counterparts, it is willing to continue the trade agreement that ensures a safe passageway for grain-carrying vessels. EU efforts to lower high energy prices are slowing down the adoption of renewable energy. Platinum Futures According to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that monitors the benchmark market for this commodity, platinum has dropped 10.67 USD/t oz. or 1.11% since the start of 2022. Platinum Jan ‘23 Futures Price Chart Wheat futures fell 6% on Wednesday Following news that trade for ships transporting grain out of Ukrainian Black Sea ports may resume operations, Chicago wheat futures plunged more than 6% to $8.5 per bushel on Wednesday, dropping considerably from the three-week high of $9 reached the prior session. Russia declared that, once its requests have been satisfied by Ukrainian counterparts, it is willing to continue the trade agreement that ensures a safe passageway for grain-carrying vessels. The action was taken after Moscow abruptly chose to terminate the agreement's participation at the end of October, citing security concerns that Kyiv refuted. The continuance of shipments from Ukraine will boost global supplies in addition to freeing up essential storage space for the upcoming harvest, increasing concerns about a global food crisis that drove wheat prices to a record-high $12.8 in May. Prior to February's Russian invasion of Ukraine, sales from both nations made up about 30% of all exports. Wheat Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline futures The CEO of one of the biggest wind turbine manufacturers in the world cautioned that EU efforts to lower high energy prices are slowing down the adoption of renewable energy just as the area wants to boost it up. “Every indication is that the EU and governments have spent more time in finding taxation methods or trying to limit energy prices, which has actually slowed the process and project accruals,” Henrik Andersen, chief executive of Danish wind turbine manufacturer Vestas, told the Financial Times. In an effort to slow the growth in energy costs across Europe brought on by high gas prices, European energy ministers decided in September to set a $180 per megawatt-hour cap on earnings from the production of wind, solar, and nuclear energy. RBOB Gasoline Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, ft.com, tradingeconomics.com
WTI Crude Oil Driven Down By Recession Concerns, Palladium Touching 5-month Lows, Coffee Futures

WTI Crude Oil Driven Down By Recession Concerns, Palladium Touching 5-month Lows, Coffee Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 03.11.2022 16:28
Summary: Worries about a likely recession-driven decline in demand for WTI Crude. Dollar index dipped back toward 20-year highs. higher Brazilian real and lower global supplies for coffee. WTI Crude Oil trading low On Thursday, WTI oil futures were trading around $88.50 per barrel, down from a session high of $90.40, as worries about a likely recession-driven decline in demand took precedence. In a decision that was largely anticipated, the Fed increased its benchmark rate by 75 basis points. It did, however, issue a warning that interest rates would rise more than expected, maintaining the pressure on global demand and economy. Losses were however constrained by the likelihood that the global oil market would remain extremely tight. There is growing concern that the oil cartel would further intervene in markets to support prices, despite the recent agreement by OPEC+ to reduce output by 2 million barrels per day in November, the largest since the epidemic. While this was going on, Saudi Arabia warned the US through intelligence that Iran was about to attack Saudi Arabian targets. A battle in the area might cause the world market to lose millions of barrels. WTI Crude Futures Price Chart Palladium touching 5-month lows Palladium futures continued to decline, reaching a low of $1,820 per ounce, the lowest level in nearly five months, as the dollar index dipped back toward 20-year highs due to the possibility of further increases in interest rates, which damaged commodities. Prices for palladium are more than 40% lower than they were in March, since palladium is being replaced by platinum and interest rates are rising. In order to combat inflation even during a slowdown, the Federal Reserve, the most powerful central bank in the world, is projected to keep raising interest rates. Furthermore, despite the price increase and supply chain disruptions, demand for palladium, which is used in auto catalysts for gasoline-powered vehicles, has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic levels. The palladium market is projected to be balanced or in deficit this year and next year, according to analysts who predict supply-demand balances. Palladium Mar ‘23 Futures Price Chart Coffee futures Due in part to the higher Brazilian real and lower global supplies, Arabica coffee futures on the ICE were trading at or around their best levels since October 25. While the International Coffee Organization reported that worldwide coffee shipments from October through September declined 0.4% year over year to 129 million bags, recent data indicated ICE-certified arabica stockpiles fell to a fresh 23-year low of 384,795 bags. The Minas Gerais region of Brazil, which produces around 30% of the nation's arabica crop, received only 79% of the historical average of 28.9 mm of rain last week, according to the most recent Somar Meteorologia report. Coffee Mar ‘23 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
The Commodities Feed: First US crude draw this year

Gold Supported By The Halt In The US Dollar Rally, Brent Crude Futures Increased 4%, Cotton Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 04.11.2022 15:46
Summary: Gold prices rose by almost 2% on Friday. The price of Brent crude futures increased by about 4%. Cotton prices remained almost 50% below their May peak. Gold prices rose in the wake of the halt of the US dollar rally On Friday, when the dollar rally came to a halt and investors considered the monetary policy prospects, gold prices rose by almost 2%, approaching $1670 an ounce. The most recent payrolls report demonstrated that the US labor market is still strong, with payroll growth above expectations by 261K, supporting the Fed's decision to continue its tightening measures. Investors also believe that much more tightening won't likely be required, despite the unemployment rate exceeding expectations. The Fed Chair stated that it is "premature to discuss pausing" and that interest rates would need to rise more than initially anticipated as the central bank announced its fourth consecutive 75 basis point rate hike on Wednesday. Gold Futures Price Chart Brent crude futures touching levels not seen since late July The price of Brent crude futures increased by about 4% to above $98 per barrel, a level not seen since late July, as news reports that China would ease its coronavirus-related restrictions in the near future improved the outlook for demand. Additionally, the likelihood that the world's oil markets would continue to be highly tight gave bulls another reason for optimism. There is growing concern that the oil cartel would further intervene in markets to support prices, despite the recent agreement by OPEC+ to reduce output by 2 million barrels per day in November, the largest since the epidemic. Concerns about a projected recession-driven decline in demand brought on by a string of draconian tightening measures from important central banks kept prices in check. The international benchmark increased by about 5% this week, putting it on course to advance for a third straight week. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Cotton futures 50% lower than late July peak As dip buyers started to show up, a significant selloff that had driven cotton futures to a nearly 22-month low of 71.6 last month was tempered. Cotton futures are now moving towards the 80 USd/Lb level. Nevertheless, prices remained almost 50% below their May peak, restrained by a stronger currency and persistent worries about demand brought on by the difficult economic climate. According to the most recent estimate from the US Department of Agriculture, both acreage and yield grew, and worldwide cotton production is predicted to reach 118.1 million bales in 2022–2023—an increase of 2% over the previous year. India, Brazil, and China are mostly responsible for the increased output, which counterbalanced decreases from the United States and Pakistan. Cotton Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
A Significant Change In The Prospects For The Crude Oil Market

Silver falls from its one-month high, Brent Crude facing both weak demand and weak supply outlooks, Corn futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 07.11.2022 17:56
Summary: After rising 7% to a one-month high on Friday, silver dropped down again. Investors weighed limited supply against a dim demand picture. Chicago corn futures declined at the beginning of November. Silver jewelry demand under pressure After rising 7% to a one-month high on Friday, silver dropped down around $20.5 per ounce on Monday. China denied it was considering modifying its zero-Covid policy, which is putting pressure on the demand for silver jewelry. Since more than two years ago, COVID-related limitations have put pressure on sales of silver jewelry in China, a major customer, while a slump in the world economy is lowering demand for electronics and cars. Since its March peak, silver has fallen more than 20% as a result of rising interest rates everywhere. The US Federal Reserve, the most powerful central bank in the world, increased rates for the fourth consecutive time by 75 basis points, and borrowing will continue to rise to a higher peak than expected. Looking ahead, it seems likely that China's economy won't be able to make up for the tightening of global financial conditions even if it is reopened. If the Federal Reserve acts more aggressively than expected, silver's decline will be more apparent. Silver Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Brent Crude Oil futures On Monday, the price of Brent oil futures was hovering around $99 per barrel, reaching levels last seen in late August as investors weighed limited supply against a dim demand picture. In addition, a declining dollar and increased risk appetite also encouraged bulls. With anticipation growing that the oil cartel could further interfere in markets to support prices, OPEC+ just agreed to cut output by 2 million barrels per day in November, the highest since the epidemic. But worries about a probable demand slump brought on by the recession persisted. Over the weekend, Chinese authorities reaffirmed their dedication to the zero-Covid strategy, dimming hopes for a policy change that may boost demand in the world's largest crude importer. Brent Crude Futures ORice Chart Corn futures Chicago corn futures declined at the beginning of November, following the trend for other grains, after Russia declared it would rejoin the UN-mediated agreement that ensures the security of grain exports leaving Ukrainian Black Sea ports. Moscow's decision to withdraw from the deal at the end of October over security considerations was overturned by the action, allaying concerns about a worldwide food crisis. Along with impeding sales, the suspension of port operations would have prevented Ukraine from clearing out significant amounts of silo storage when the harvest for the 2022–2023 marketing year got under way. The USDA reported that 264 thousand tonnes of corn were shipped for the week ending October 20th, far less than the 350 thousand to 1.075 million tonnes of estimates. Corn Futures Price Chart Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
Commodities Update: Strong Russian Oil Flows to China and Volatility in European Gas Market

Gold reaches 1-month highs on Tuesday, US NGAS futures list 10% on Tuesday, cotton futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 08.11.2022 18:18
Summary: The US dollar fell and worrying US economic confidence statistics. NGAS down from 3-week highs. A significant selloff that had driven cotton futures to a nearly 22-month low. Gold prices supported by concerning US economic statistics Gold prices rose to above $1,700 on Tuesday, the highest level in more than a month, as the US dollar fell and worrying US economic confidence statistics made the argument for the Federal Reserve to drop its target interest rate. Investors eagerly anticipate this week's release of the October CPI report in the hopes that it will support the recent decline in inflation and lessen pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep depressing demand. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of storing non-yielding bullion, which reduces the appeal of gold, despite the fact that it is commonly seen as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. Investors in other markets kept an eye out for China's policy cues to see if it was considering easing up on its zero-Covid policy. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart NGAS down from 3-week high US natural gas futures had a 10% decline on Tuesday, falling from a 3-week high of nearly $7 set the previous day to $6.4/MMBtu. The demand projection for the upcoming week was also revised downward due to warmer weather. The average US gas demand, including exports, is anticipated to increase to 121.2 bcfd from 98.4 bcfd this week, falling short of earlier projections. Increasing LNG exports and declining output have recently bolstered prices. After Berkshire Hathaway Energy's Cove Point LNG plant resumed operations on October 28th, the Texas-based Freeport LNG export facility, which has been idle since June, is expected to start up again by the middle of the month. So far in November, the Lower 48 US states' average gas production has decreased to 98.4 bcfd. NGAS Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton prices 50% down from May peak As dip buyers started to show up, a significant selloff that had driven cotton futures to a nearly 22-month low of 71.6 last month was tempered. Cotton futures are now moving towards the 80 USd/Lb level. Nevertheless, prices remained almost 50% below their May peak, restrained by a stronger currency and persistent worries about demand brought on by the difficult economic climate. According to the most recent estimate from the US Department of Agriculture, both acreage and yield grew, and worldwide cotton production is predicted to reach 118.1 million bales in 2022–2023—an increase of 2% over the previous year. India, Brazil, and China are mostly responsible for the increased output, which counterbalanced decreases from the United States and Pakistan. Cotton Marc ‘23 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com  
Securing Battery Metal Supply Chains: Challenges and Opportunities Amid the Global Energy Transition

WTI crude oil down 2%, palladium touching 5 month lows, coffee touching 15 month lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 09.11.2022 17:00
Summary: WTI crude continued their third session of losses. Despite the price increase and supply chain disruptions, demand for palladium has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic levels. The price of Arabica coffee futures dropped to its lowest level in 15 months as supply prospects improved. WTI Crude Oil down amidst concerns of a worldwide recession On Wednesday, WTI oil futures lost approximately 2% of their value and traded near the $87 per barrel level, continuing their third session of losses due to ongoing concerns over a worldwide recession-driven decline in demand. Renewed COVID- Hopes for a gradual economic reopening and a comeback in energy consumption were dashed by 19 outbreaks in China, the world's largest oil importer, which raised fears of potential new lockdowns. Fears that an aggressive tightening campaign by major central banks in developed economies could pull the world into a recession and reduce oil consumption were exacerbated by uncertainty about China's outlook. Additionally, according to API statistics, US oil stockpiles increased by nearly 5.6 million barrels last week, above forecasts for an increase of 1.1 million barrels. Even still, supplies around the world are still exceedingly scarce since OPEC+ cut production in November by 2 million barrels per day, and because the European Union is set to impose a ban on Russian oil in December. WTI Crude Futures Price Chart Palladium touches 5-month lows Palladium futures continued to decline, reaching a low of $1,820 per ounce, the lowest level in nearly five months, as the dollar index dipped back toward 20-year highs due to the possibility of further increases in interest rates, which damaged commodities. Prices for palladium are more than 40% lower than they were in March, since palladium is being replaced by platinum and interest rates are rising. In order to combat inflation even during a slowdown, the Federal Reserve, the most powerful central bank in the world, is projected to keep raising interest rates. Furthermore, despite the price increase and supply chain disruptions, demand for palladium, which is used in auto catalysts for gasoline-powered vehicles, has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic levels. The palladium market is projected to be balanced or in deficit this year and next year, according to analysts who predict supply-demand balances. Palladium Futures Price Chart Coffee touching 15 month lows The price of Arabica coffee futures dropped to its lowest level in 15 months as supply prospects improved and demand projections were expected to decline. World Weather reported that Brazil's 2023–24 coffee crop had grown in a "very excellent climate" due to frequent rain and plenty of sunshine, sparking hopes for a potential record production in the top producer Brazil the following year. Additionally, Colombia, Mexico, and Central America are predicted to produce better crops. Demand is expected to decrease at the same time that global growth slows. Even yet, according to the most recent statistics, ICE-certified arabica stocks hit a new low of 384,795 bags, which is a 23-year low, although traders predicted that stocks would soon rebound. Coffee Mar ‘23 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Australia Is Expected To Produce A Bumper Year Of Crops

Platinum futures touching 4-month highs, US Gasoline Prices High, Wheat shortage concerns driving futures prices

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 10.11.2022 18:57
Summary: Platinum futures increased to their highest level in 4 months. Projections for global wheat supply and ending stocks for the 2022 marketing year have climbed. The West Coast's limited gasoline supply would keep gas prices high. Platinum futures supported by a weaker US dollar Platinum futures increased to their highest level in four months at $965 per ounce as the dollar declined more than 4% since reaching 20-year highs at the end of September, enhancing the attraction of commodities with dollar prices. Although demand has decreased due to slower economic growth, higher interest rates, and a persistent semiconductor shortage that has hurt auto production, the price of platinum is still down more than 15% from its March peak. The platinum market should be in surplus both this year and the following year, according to analysts who predicted supply-demand balances. However, the rise of China's energy sector and the country's robust industrial demand continue to drive up prices for the commodity. Platinum Futures Price Chart Wheat futures Chicago wheat futures reached a two-month low in November before rising to levels seen before Russia's invasion of Ukraine as hopes of a plentiful supply allayed concerns about a shortage. Projections for global supply and ending stocks for the 2022 marketing year have climbed, contrary to forecasts of a fall, according to data from the USDA's WASDE report, as stronger output in Australia and Kazakhstan offset expected declines in Argentina and the EU. Russia's commitment to resume the UN-mediated arrangement, which ensures a safe passage for ships delivering Ukrainian grain after demands have been met by Ukrainian officials, was another factor supporting supplies. The action was taken after Moscow abruptly chose to halt the deal at the end of October, citing Kyiv's denials of any security concerns. Investors are currently anticipating the UN-Russia delegation meeting to talk about extending the pact, as the present agreement expires on November 19. Wheat Futures Price Chart US gasoline has been rising Following a fire on Tuesday night at Chevron Corp.'s El Segundo, California, refinery, California gasoline increased to $1.07 per gallon over NYMEX December gasoline in the Los Angeles wholesale market, according to West Coast market traders. Due to a refinery in northern California losing power and planned maintenance at another plant in southern California, gasoline in the Los Angeles market has been trending upward for the previous two weeks and last traded at 96.5 cents on Tuesday. The West Coast's limited gasoline supply would keep prices high, according to traders. RBOB Gasoline Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Agricultural Commodities Markets Are Going To Remain Sensitive To Developments In The Russia-Ukraine War

Silver prices are 12% up in November, brent crude down on concerns around the reopening of China, corn futures falling

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 14.11.2022 17:20
Summary: Silver prices are nearly 12% higher in November. Investors remained on edge due to concerns over a possible reopening of China. Corn futures had their largest monthly decline on indications of ample supply. Silver futures up in November When compared to the five-month high of $21.7, silver futures were trading near $22 per ounce as speculators continued to predict how much the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates at its upcoming meetings. Despite the October inflation reading being lower than anticipated, Fed policymakers insisted that the central bank is continuing to fight inflation. Even so, silver prices are nearly 12% higher in November as wagers on the Federal Reserve's target rate were reduced by data confirming the trend of reducing inflation. In December, the Fed is expected to increase its target funds rate by 50 basis points (bps), slowing from the four consecutive 75-bps rate increases made since June. Although bullion is frequently employed as an inflation hedge, its attraction is diminished by increased interest rates as they increase the opportunity cost to store non-interest-bearing assets. Silver futures price chart Brent crude oil falling in the wake of relaxed COVID-19 measures in China Brent crude futures were trading at roughly $95 per barrel, a sharp decline from their daily highs of $97 per barrel as investors remained on edge due to a strong currency and concerns over a possible reopening of China. China's National Health Commission recently relaxed certain coronavirus-related restrictions on the top oil import in the world, but an increase in coronavirus cases over the weekend delayed plans for an immediate and thorough reopening. After OPEC+ agreed to limit output by 2 million barrels per day in November, the potential of even tighter supplies continued to support prices. At the same time, a ban on Russian oil by the European Union is scheduled to go into effect in December. Brent crude futures price chart Corn weighed down by strong supply prospects Chicago maize futures experienced their largest monthly decline on indications of ample supply. As poor Chinese demand encourages soybean farmers to grow alternative crops, USDA predictions point to increased corn seedlings and plantation areas for the upcoming marketing year. Expectations for the supply increased as well after Russia declared it will rejoin the UN-mediated agreement that ensures the security of grain exports from Ukrainian Black Sea ports. Moscow's decision to withdraw from the deal at the end of October over security considerations was overturned by the action, allaying concerns about a worldwide food crisis. The restoration of trade not only facilitates exports but also allows Ukraine to release significant storage space in silos as the harvest for the 2022–2023 marketing year is underway. Corn futures price chart Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
Commodities Update: Strong Russian Oil Flows to China and Volatility in European Gas Market

Gold future prices remaining stable, NGAS higher amidst expectations of cooler weather, cotton futures recovering their 22-month lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 15.11.2022 18:53
Summary: On Tuesday, gold prices remained stable. US NGAS futures increased on expectations of increasing heating demand as a result of colder than usual temperatures. Cotton prices remained almost 50% below their May peak. Gold trading at highest levels in 3 months On Tuesday, gold prices remained stable at approximately $1,770 per ounce as traders reevaluated the outlook for US interest rates in the wake of conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve. The Fed still has a lot of work to do in combating inflation, according to Fed officials, who conceded that the central bank may pause the pace of rate rises in the forthcoming sessions. After delivering four consecutive 75 basis point increases, investors are predicting that the Fed would scale back the magnitude of its rate hikes to 50 basis points starting in December. Gold, however, continued to trade at its highest levels in almost three months, largely as a result of recent dollar weakness and a decline in cryptocurrency prices. Although rising interest rates diminish its appeal because the metal does not pay interest, gold has long been seen as a safe-haven asset in times of economic uncertainty. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart NGAS futures up on cooler temperature prospects In the third week of November, US natural gas futures increased on expectations of increasing heating demand as a result of colder than usual temperatures. There are indications that the Freeport LNG export plant restart won't happen until December, which would increase the amount of gas available for domestic usage. According to other recent EIA statistics, US utilities added 79 bcf of gas to storage last week, falling short of market forecasts for an increase of 84 bcf and falling short of a gain of 15 bcf during the same week last year. NGAS Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton recovering from 22-month lows As dip buyers started to show up, a significant selloff that had driven cotton futures to a nearly 22-month low of 71.6 last month was tempered. Cotton futures are now moving towards the 80 USd/Lb level. Nevertheless, prices remained almost 50% below their May peak, restrained by a stronger currency and persistent worries about demand brought on by the difficult economic climate. According to the most recent estimate from the US Department of Agriculture, both acreage and yield grew, and worldwide cotton production is predicted to reach 118.1 million bales in 2022–2023—an increase of 2% over the previous year. India, Brazil, and China are mostly responsible for the increased output, which counterbalanced decreases from the United States and Pakistan. Cotton Mar ‘23 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
The Commodities Feed: First US crude draw this year

WTI Crude Oil futures, Palladium futures touching 1-month highs, Coffee touching 15-month lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 16.11.2022 17:32
Summary: Palladium futures extended gains to their highest in a month. The price of Arabica coffee futures dropped to its lowest level in 15 months. Oil prices were kept in check by worries about a global economic downturn. WTI Crude futures After a Russian-made missile struck Polish territory and killed two citizens, geopolitical worries shook the markets, as WTI crude futures hovered close to $87 per barrel on Wednesday. The missile's launcher is still unknown with certainty, according to Polish President Andrzej Duda, who also noted that it was an isolated incident. As the European Union prepares to impose an embargo on Russian crude supplies starting in December, the possibility of a wider conflict in Europe threatens to compound the outlook for a tightening supply on the oil market. OPEC further reduced its estimates for the growth of the world's oil consumption in 2022 and 2023, citing escalating economic problems such high inflation, rising interest rates, and supply chain disruptions. Oil prices were kept in check by worries about a global economic downturn as major central banks tightened policy further and uncertainty relating to COVID in the world's largest petroleum importer, China. WTI crude futures price chart Palladium futures supported by prospects of a more dovish fed The dollar index neared 3-month lows as palladium futures extended gains to above $2,070 per ounce, the highest in a month, on the expectation that the Fed will raise interest rates more slowly as inflation starts to decline. As a result of higher interest rates, slower economic development, and the replacement of platinum for palladium, palladium prices are still 35% below their March peak. After four straight 75 bps rises, the Federal Reserve, the most powerful central bank in the world, is anticipated to boost the fed funds rate by 50 basis points in December. Furthermore, despite the price increase and supply chain disruptions, demand for palladium, which is used in auto catalysts for gasoline-powered vehicles, has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic levels. The palladium market is projected to be balanced or in deficit this year and next year, according to analysts who predict supply-demand balances. Palladium Mar ‘23 futures price chart Coffee futures fell due to improved supply prospects The price of Arabica coffee futures dropped to $1.64 a pound, its lowest level in 15 months, as supply prospects improved and demand projections were expected to decline. World Weather reported that Brazil's 2023–24 coffee crop had grown in a "very excellent climate" due to frequent rain and plenty of sunshine, sparking hopes for a potential record production in the top producer Brazil the following year. Additionally, Colombia, Mexico, and Central America are predicted to produce better crops. Demand is expected to decrease at the same time that global growth slows. Even yet, according to the most recent statistics, ICE-certified arabica stocks hit a new low of 384,795 bags, which is a 23-year low, although traders predicted that stocks would soon rebound. Coffee Mar ‘23 futures price chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Australia Is Expected To Produce A Bumper Year Of Crops

Platinum supply could experience a shortfall, gasoline touching 4-week lows, wheat touching 2.5 month lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 17.11.2022 16:59
Summary: Platinum futures declined below the $1,000 per ounce barrier. Gasoline prices extended to the lowest level in nearly four weeks. Chicago wheat futures fell below a level not reached since late August. Platinum futures down from 8-month high As new outbreaks in top user China crushed hopes for a potential end to its zero-Covid policy, clouding the outlook for demand, platinum futures declined below the $1,000 per ounce barrier, sliding further from an eight-month high of around $1,050. According to statistics from the World Platinum Investment Council, the supply side of the platinum market could experience a shortfall of 219,000 ounces in 2023 as opposed to a surplus of 974,000 ounces in 2022. Beyond the reduction in supplies globally, there was ongoing concern regarding Russian exports. After South Africa, Russia is the second-largest supplier of platinum worldwide. Platinum Jan ‘23 futures price chart Gasoline on track for its 4th consecutive weekly decline Due to increased supply, gasoline futures saw their losses deepen to below $2.5 per gallon in mid-November, the lowest level in nearly four weeks. Following a fourth consecutive week of declines, the latest EIA data revealed that US gasoline stockpiles increased by 2.207 million barrels to 207.9 million last week, far exceeding market forecasts of a 0.31 million-barrel increase. According to the data, US refineries processed an average of 16.2 million barrels of crude oil per day during the week ending November 11th, which is 63,000 barrels per day more than the previous week's average. This is the sixth week in a row that gasoline production has climbed. RBOB Gasoline Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Wheat touching late August lows Chicago wheat futures fell below $8 per bushel, a level not reached since late August, as steady exports from a key exporter, Ukraine, allayed concerns about a lack of supply around the world. The UN-mediated agreement has been extended by Russia for another four months, ensuring a trade route through the Black Sea and releasing pressure on world food prices. As a result of stronger output in Australia and Kazakhstan offsetting probable decreases in Argentina and the EU, figures from the USDA's WASDE report improved predictions for the world supply and ending inventories for the forthcoming marketing year, contrary to expectations of a decline. Wheat futures price chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
OPEC+ Meeting: Saudi Arabia Implements Deeper Voluntary Cuts to Boost Oil Prices

Silver retreating from its five-month high, Brent crude dropping as COVID-19 cases in China surge, Corn futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.11.2022 18:44
Summary: Silver futures are declining as investors weigh the Fed’s aggressiveness to fight inflation. Concerns over covid-19 related lockdowns in China are weighing on Brent crude. Corn futures up more than 12% in 2022. Silver down from a 5-month high As investors continued to assess the outlook on the Fed's aggressiveness to fight inflation, silver futures declined to below $20.7 per ounce, continuing its retreat from the five-month high of $21.7 hit on November 14th. This decline was pressured by a new rally for the US dollar. The expectation of higher interest rates not only increased the opportunity cost of keeping non-interest-bearing bullion assets, but also decreased demand for industrial silver used as electricity conductors, paralleling the reduction for copper. On the other hand, due in part to looming supply worries, silver futures are still 16% above the 14-month low of $18 per ounce reached on September 1st. In the last 18 months, inventories at the COMEX in New York have decreased by 70% to just over 1 million tonnes, while those at the London Bullion Market Association have decreased for 10 consecutive months to a record-low 27.1 thousand tonnes. Silver Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Brent Crude Oil dropped for its fourth consecutive session On Monday, Brent oil futures dropped below $87 a barrel for the fourth consecutive session due to worries that China might tighten its import restrictions and that major central banks will keep rising interest rates. Over the weekend, China announced the first Covid-related fatalities in six months, and on Monday, localized lockdowns were enacted in some locations as the world's largest oil importer battled resurgent Covid breakouts. Investors were also concerned that tighter financial circumstances might cause the world economy to enter a recession, which would harm demand for energy. However, investors continued to be wary of the very ambiguous supply outlook heading into the winter, with the European Union due to limit Russian crude exports starting in December and OPEC anticipated to maintain tight oil markets. Brent Crude Futures Price Chart Corn futures Since the start of 2022, corn prices have climbed by 71.34 USd/BU, or 12.03 percent, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that monitors the benchmark market for this commodity. Corn Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Saxo Bank Podcast: Natural Gas On Colder Weather, Wheat And Coffee Under Pressure, JPY Weaker And More

Gold rises in the wake of a retreating US dollar, potential rail strike weighs on US NGAS, Cotton futures under pressure

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 22.11.2022 17:07
Summary: The US dollar retreated from a recent high, cousin gold prices to end a four-day slide. US natural gas futures declined after jumping 7.5% in the previous session. Cotton futures continued to be under pressure from persistent demand worries Gold prices rise in the wake of a weaker USD As the dollar retreated from a recent high, gold prices surged above $1,740 an ounce on Tuesday, ending a four-day slide. Investors were waiting for the minutes of the most recent Federal Reserve meeting, which may provide insight into the timing of future US interest rate increases. The comments of individual Fed officials were also analyzed by traders. For example, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly cautioned against overtightening, while Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated that she wants to see sustained declines in inflation before she can support a halt. The rate outlook has a significant impact on gold since it makes holding non-yielding metal more expensive, decreasing its appeal. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart NGAS declined after a 7.5% rise in the previous session As gas traders watched weather patterns, the delay in Freeport's restart, and a potential rail strike, US natural gas futures declined after jumping 7.5% in the previous session. The largest US rail union's members rejected a tentative contract agreement signed in September, increasing the likelihood of a year-end strike that could halt coal shipments and make power plants use more gas. Additionally, according to current forecasts, extremely cold weather is expected to arrive during the first week of December, which will increase demand for gas-powered heating. On the other hand, more gas is anticipated to be kept available for domestic use now that the restart of the Freeport LNG export facility has been postponed until mid-December while repairs are made to the damage caused by the explosion in June. US utilities added 64 bcf of gas to storage last week, according to EIA data, bringing gas stockpiles closer to the 3.651 tcf five-year average for this time of the year. NGAS Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton weighed down by concerns around demand Cotton futures continued to be under pressure from persistent demand worries resulting from difficult economic conditions and increased supplies, remaining close to a nearly 22-month low of last month and roughly 50% below their May peak. The US Department of Agriculture revealed larger-than-anticipated domestic production and lower worldwide demand forecasts for 2022–2023 in its most recent monthly report. A decline in the Southwest is more than compensated by increases elsewhere, resulting in a 1.5% increase in production in the United States, to 14.0 million bales. Additionally, it is anticipated that this month's worldwide cotton consumption will be 650,000 bales lower, with mill use in Pakistan and Bangladesh expected to be reduced by 300,000 bales. Cotton Mar ‘23 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
WTI crude futures fell 5%, palladium futures touching 5-mont lows, coffee futures touching 16-month los

WTI crude futures fell 5%, palladium futures touching 5-mont lows, coffee futures touching 16-month los

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 23.11.2022 18:27
Summary: WTI crude futures touching January lows. Palladium futures are declining as China's COVID-19 situation heightens. Arabica coffee futures touching the lowest level in 16 month, WTI Crude oil touching 11 month lows As investors considered persisting demand concerns and tracked developments around the G7's price restriction on Russian oil, WTI crude futures fell over 5% to below $77 per barrel, approaching their lowest level since January. Markets have been on edge due to a deteriorating outlook for global demand, with top crude importer China potentially facing tighter coronavirus-induced restrictions due to an increase in infections and advanced economies, primarily the US and Europe, experiencing a decline in economic activity as a result of tighter financial conditions. The G7 also considered a price cap on Putin's oil above the current price of the crude grade to make it profitable for Russia to sell its crude and avoid a shortage of supplies on the global market. Prices were supported by expectations that OPEC would step up its market interventions in response to a decline in demand brought on by the recession. Additionally, EIA data revealed a much greater than anticipated decline in US inventories last week. WTI Crude Futures Price Chart Palladium futures touching 5-month lows In line with other commodities, palladium futures dropped to $1,900 per ounce, edging closer to a 5-month low of $1,800 set on November 3rd as a worsening Covid-19 situation in China and more lockdowns weakened an already weak demand outlook. Prices for palladium are 40% lower than they were in March due to palladium's substitution by platinum, rising interest rates, and sluggish economic development. After four straight 75 bps rises, the Federal Reserve, the most powerful central bank in the world, is anticipated to boost the fed funds rate by 50 basis points in December. Furthermore, despite the price increase and supply chain disruptions, demand for palladium, which is used in auto catalysts for gasoline-powered vehicles, has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic levels. The palladium market is expected to be balanced or in deficit this year and next year, according to analysts who predict supply-demand balances. Palladium Mar ‘23 Futures Price Chart Coffee touching 16-month lows Arabica coffee futures on the ICE extended losses to $1.54 a pound, touching the lowest level in 16 months, as the outlook for the global supply is expected to continue good while the demand is anticipated to deteriorate due to the possibility of a recession. According to an analysis by Rabobank, Brazil's ample rainfall and increasing output in response to high prices since 2020, when demand growth was anticipated to be modest, will assist the global coffee market transition from a tiny deficit in 2022/23 to a surplus in the season that follows. A significant increase in arabica coffee entering warehouses with ICE approval also continued to be a bearish factor. According to the most recent data, ICE-certified coffee stocks were 468,291 bags as of November 15th, a significant increase from the 23-year low of 382,695 bags reached on November 3rd. Coffee Mar ‘23 Futures Price Chart Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
World Platinum Investment Council CEO: ""The Platinum Market Is Forecast To Be In Deficit"

Platinum futures weighed down by COVID-19 lockdowns in China, gasoline touching 5-week lows, wheat futures touching 3-month lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 24.11.2022 15:39
Summary: The supply side of the platinum market could experience a shortfall. Higher gasoline supply driving prices down. Wheat prices were under pressure from forecasts of plentiful supplies. Platinum demand looks dim As new outbreaks in top consumer China crushed hopes for a potential end to its zero-Covid policy, clouding the outlook for demand, platinum futures declined below the $1,000 per ounce barrier, sliding further from an eight-month high of roughly $1,050. According to statistics from the World Platinum Investment Council, the supply side of the platinum market could experience a shortfall of 219,000 ounces in 2023 as opposed to a surplus of 974,000 ounces in 2022. Beyond the reduction in supplies globally, there was ongoing concern regarding Russian exports. After South Africa, Russia is the second-largest producer of platinum worldwide. Platinum Jan ‘23 Futures Price Chart Gasoline hitting 5-week lows After a larger-than-expected inventory build last week allayed concerns about a tight market, gasoline futures continued to decline and fell to below $2.5 per gallon, moving closer to a five-week low hit below $2.4 earlier in the week. In contrast to market expectations for a smaller 383,000-barrel increase, the most recent EIA data showed that US gasoline stocks increased by 3.058 million barrels in the week ended November 18th, the largest weekly increase since mid-July. The report also revealed a 625,000 barrel drop in gasoline production, the first weekly decline since early October. RBOB Gasoline Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Wheat touching 3-month lows The fourth week of November saw the lowest price for Chicago wheat futures in three months as benchmark wheat prices were under pressure from forecasts of plentiful supplies. After a time of supply uncertainty, Russia consented to a four-month extension of the UN-mediated agreement that secures a trade route for ships transporting Ukrainian grain in the Black Sea. According to Ukrainian authorities, since the agreement's inception on August 1st, the nation has been able to export more than 11 million tonnes of grain via ships, greatly allaying scarcity concerns for the following marketing year. In consequence, increased Black Sea supplies are expected to give US participants the opportunity to stockpile desperately needed goods in 2022–2033. As a result of improved production in Australia and Kazakhstan offsetting probable decreases in Argentina and the EU, figures from the USDA's WASDE report increased predictions for the world supply and ending stocks for the upcoming marketing year, contrary to expectations of a decline. Wheat Futures Price Chart Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
Crude oil went up after news about missile, which landed in Poland. Black gold said to be affected by situation in China

Silver futures supported by constrained supplies, Brent Crude touching January lows, corn futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 28.11.2022 17:14
Summary: Silver supported by demand optimism and constrained supplies. Brent crude weighed down by lack of investor confidence. Corn futures up more than 12% in 2022. Silver trading near 5-month highs Near the five-month high of almost $22 that was set on November 14th, silver futures were trading at roughly $21.5 per ounce, supported by a combination of demand optimism and constrained supplies. White metal demand is anticipated to reach a new record high globally in 2022, spurred by post-pandemic industrial and physical investment needs. The long-term picture for the commodity's demand was further improved by the global governments' commitment to green technologies. Prices were also bolstered by indications of limited supply, as New York's COMEX inventories decreased by 70% to just over 1 million tonnes over the previous 18 months. Additionally, the London Bullion Market Association stockpiles dropped to a record-low 27.1 thousand tonnes in November for the tenth consecutive month. In addition to the demand-supply dynamics, the Federal Reserve's potential for a more gradual tightening of monetary policy has given silver bulls hope. Silver Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Brent Crude fell more than 2% On Monday, Brent oil futures fell more than 2% below $82 a barrel, reaching their lowest levels since January as huge demonstrations against China's tight zero-COvid policy undermined investor confidence and the outlook for demand. Reports that the US has given Chevron Corp. permission to restart oil production in Venezuela put additional downward pressure on oil prices. The top crude importer China is experiencing Covid-related uncertainty, and growing concerns about a global economic downturn have seized the energy markets. This is the fourth week in a row that the international oil benchmark has fallen. The G7's intention to control the price of Russian oil continued to be followed by traders, but news of a high cap on the price allayed concerns that Russia would respond by reducing production. Investors are still being cautious ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on December 4 since it is anticipated that the major producers will maintain tight supply. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Corn has increased more than 12% in 2022 Trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity shows that corn has increased 71.68 USd/BU or 12.08% since the start of 2022. Corn Mar ‘23 Futures Price Chart Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
Chile's Lithium Nationalization and the Global Trend of Resource Nationalism: Implications for EV Supply Chains and Efforts to Strengthen Battery Metal Supply

Gold supported by a falling US dollar, NGAS fell in the wake of weaker demand expectations, Cotton touching 4-week lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 29.11.2022 19:15
Summary: Gold rose, recovering the majority of its losses from the previous session. In anticipation of weaker demand, US natural gas futures were trading down from a two-month high. Recession expectations weighing on cotton prices Gold futures rose on Tuesday As the dollar fell on Tuesday, gold rose beyond $1,750 an ounce, recovering the majority of its losses from the previous session. Investors were still determining the likely course of US monetary policy. After US Federal Reserve officials indicated that interest rates will continue to rise well into next year, the yellow metal fell by about 1% on Monday. However, after delivering four consecutive 75 basis point rate hikes, it is largely anticipated that the Fed would moderate the pace of its rate hike to 50 basis points in December. Investors anticipate numerous US economic releases this week as well as Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday for new information regarding the central bank's plans to tighten monetary policy. The rate outlook has a significant impact on gold because it makes holding non-yielding bullion more expensive, decreasing its appeal. Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart NGAS’s decline on weaker demand expecations In anticipation of weaker demand, US natural gas futures were trading at around $7.3/MMBtu, down from a nearly two-month high of $8/MMBtu reached on November 23. Recent weather predictions predict milder conditions over the following two weeks. Nevertheless, costs are anticipated to stay high due to expectations of a significant demand for heating during the winter. Investors continued to express anxiety about potential interruptions in the coal supply. The largest US rail union's members rejected a tentative contract agreement reached in September, increasing the likelihood of a year-end strike that could halt coal shipments and make power plants burn more gas. At the same time, Europe is clamoring for US exports after Russia threatened to further reduce supplies. The Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, which had to shut down due to a fire in June, anticipates starting to resume operations in mid-December. NGAS Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton touching 4-week lows On the back of declining demand brought on by worries about an impending global recession, rising supplies, and at their lowest level in over four weeks, cotton futures were trading at approximately 78 USd/Lb. The most recent US Department of Agriculture cotton projections for 2022–2023 showed reduced worldwide demand forecasts for 2022–2023 and a marginal increase in global cotton production from 2021/22. With 14.0 million bales produced, the US, the world's largest cotton exporter, saw production rise by around 1.5% as rises elsewhere more than made up for a decline in the Southwest. A 300,000-bale reduction in mill use in Pakistan and Bangladesh is expected to result in a 650,000-bale decrease in worldwide cotton consumption this month. Cotton Mar ‘23 Futures Price Chart Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
Yen (JPY) Takes A Stab At Resilience, The Grains Sector Has Survived Well

WTI Crude oil prices supported by a fall in US supply, palladium futures touching 5-month lows, wheat futures touching 3-month lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 30.11.2022 19:06
Summary: US oil inventories decreased by almost 8 million barrels last week. A worsening Covid-19 situation in China further weakened demand outlook for palladium. Wheat futures were under pressure from ongoing shipments out of Ukrainian Black Sea ports. WTI Crude up for their 3rd consecutive session On Wednesday, WTI crude futures increased for the third session in a row, approaching $79 a barrel as an industry report indicated a significant decline in US crude stocks and a forthcoming OPEC+ meeting stoked concerns about additional production restrictions. According to API statistics, US oil inventories decreased by almost 8 million barrels last week, far more than the predicted decline of 2.487 million barrels and following a decrease of 4.819 million barrels the week before. When OPEC+ meets on December 4 to decide on output strategy, there is speculation that the cartel will further reduce supply to counteract market weakness. On the demand side, the news that China would increase vaccination among its senior citizens helped to push up oil prices. This comes as pressure mounts on the world's top crude importer to pursue economic reopening in the wake of protracted protests. WTI Crude Futures Price Chart Palladium demand outlook is bleak In line with other commodities, palladium futures dropped to below $1,900 per ounce, getting closer to a 5-month low of $1,800 set on November 3rd as a worsening Covid-19 situation in China and more lockdowns weakened an already weak demand outlook. Prices for palladium are 40% lower than they were in March due to palladium's substitution by platinum, rising interest rates, and sluggish economic development. After four straight 75 bps rises, the Federal Reserve, the most powerful central bank in the world, is anticipated to boost the fed funds rate by 50 basis points in December. Furthermore, despite the price increase and supply chain disruptions, demand for palladium, which is used in auto catalysts for gasoline-powered vehicles, has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic levels. The palladium market is projected to be balanced or in deficit this year and next year, according to analysts who predict supply-demand balances. Palladium Mar ‘23 Futures Price Chart Wheat futures touching 3-month lows Chicago wheat futures were under pressure from ongoing shipments out of Ukrainian Black Sea ports, which led to a further decline to below $7.7 in late November, the lowest level in more than three months. After a time of supply uncertainty, Russia consented to a four-month extension of the UN-mediated agreement that secures a trade route for ships transporting Ukrainian grain in the Black Sea. According to Ukrainian authorities, since the agreement's inception on August 1st, the nation has been able to export more than 11 million tonnes of grain via ships, greatly allaying scarcity concerns for the following marketing year. In consequence, increased Black Sea supplies are expected to give US participants the opportunity to stockpile desperately needed goods in 2022–2033. Meanwhile, US farmers may decide to allocate farmland to wheat instead of soybeans due to lower expectations for China's soybean demand amid widespread lockdown protests, which would also increase the supply. Wheat Futures Price Chart Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
Bearish WASDE Report Impacting Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat

WASDE update: Argentine crops downgraded

ING Economics ING Economics 09.03.2023 10:29
The USDA’s latest monthly WASDE report saw some large revisions lower to the Argentine soybean and corn crops. This has led to a tightening in the global soybean balance, whilst for corn, supply losses were offset by weaker demand Weaker demand offsets supply losses for corn Major revisions in the USDA’s monthly WASDE report come from Argentina, where the agency revised lower its production estimate from 47mt to 40mt due to the hot and dry weather. However, supply gains elsewhere partially offset the losses from Argentina with global supply falling by 3.8mt. Revisions lower to demand were more aggressive, with global demand cut by 5.6mt for the 2022/23 season. As a result, global ending stocks for 2022/23 increased from 295.3mt to 296.5mt, which was above the roughly 293mt expected. This unexpected increase put pressure on corn prices following the release. For the US, 2022/23 ending stocks were increased from 1.27b bushels to 1.34b bushels, which is slightly above the 1.3b bushels the market was expecting. This was driven by export estimates being cut by 75m bushels for the season. Corn supply/demand balance Source: USDA, ING Research Argentina supply losses tighten soybean market Major revisions were also made to the Argentine soybean crop due to the unfavourable weather conditions, which are expected to hurt yields. The USDA cut its forecast for Argentine production by 8mt to 33mt. This lower supply was partially offset by expectations of weaker demand. However, 2022/23 global ending stocks were still revised down from 102mt to 100mt, which was in line with market expectations. Read next: Russia Unleashed A Wave Of Drone And Missile Attacks On Ukraine Overnight, SHEIN Is Expected To Raise Around $2 Billion In A New Round| FXMAG.COM The US soybean balance also looks tighter with the USDA increasing its export number by 25m bushels. This more than made up for weaker domestic demand. As a result, 2022/23 ending stocks were cut from 225m bushels to 210m bushels, below the roughly 220m bushels the market was expecting and also the lowest in seven years. The report should prove supportive for soybean prices. Soybean supply/demand balance Source: USDA, ING Research US wheat balance left unchanged The US wheat balance was left unchanged for the 2022/23 season. Ending stock estimates remain at 568m bushels, although the market was expecting a number closer to 573m bushels. There were some larger revisions to the global balance. Both global output (+5.1mt) and demand (+2mt) were revised higher. However, a cut to beginning stocks following an increase in feed and residual usage in China during 2020/21 meant that global ending stocks for 2022/23 were cut from 269.3mt to 267.2mt. The market was expecting this number to remain largely unchanged. Wheat supply/demand balance Source: USDA, ING Research Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Bearish WASDE Report Impacting Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat

WASDE update: USDA's first crop estimates for 2023/24

ING Economics ING Economics 15.05.2023 10:15
The USDA’s first estimates for the 2023/24 marketing year presents a soft outlook for corn and soybeans as global supply improves, whilst demand is expected to increase at a modest pace. However, the wheat outlook is more constructive with the market facing yet another fall in ending stocks in 2023/24 Supply gains outpace demand growth for corn The USDA expects US corn production to rise significantly by over 10% year-on-year in 2023/24, with first estimates suggesting record output at 15.3b bushels due to improved yield and higher acreage. The market was expecting a number closer to 15.1b bushels. Corn acreage is expected to rise from 79.2m acres to 84.1m acres in 2023/24, whilst yields are projected to increase from 173.3bu/acres to 181.5bu/acres. US domestic demand and exports are expected to rise by 430m bushels to 12.4b bushels and by 325m bushels to 2.1b bushels, respectively. Consequently, US ending stocks for 2023/24 are estimated at 2.22b bushels, up from 1.42b bushels at the end of 2022/23. The market was expecting a number closer to 2.1b bushels. For the global corn balance, world production is estimated to total 1.22bn tonnes in 2023/24, up 6% YoY. Supply gains from the US (+39mt), Argentina (+17mt) and the EU (+11.3mt) are expected to more than offset supply losses from Ukraine (-5mt) and Brazil (-1mt). Global ending stocks for 2023/24 are projected at 312.9mt, up by 15.5mt from the previous year. This is also higher than the roughly 308mt the market was expecting. Above-consensus ending stock numbers are clearly not constructive for corn prices and this is aligned with the relatively more bearish view we have held for corn. However, there are still clear upside risks as we move into the US growing season, whilst there is also still plenty of uncertainty over the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Corn supply/demand balance Source: USDA, ING Research Soybean market well supplied in 2023/24 2023/24 estimates for US soybeans were bearish with increased supply, higher ending stocks and lower exports compared to the preceding year. The USDA projects US soybean ending stocks at 335m bushels, much higher than the 215m bushels estimated for 2022/23. This is also well above the 293m bushels the market was expecting. US soybean production is seen at 4.51b bushels in 2023/24, up from an estimated 4.28b bushels in 2022/23, primarily due to higher yields. US exports are projected to decline by 40m bushels to 1.98b bushels following increased overseas competition. Meanwhile, USDA projects US soybean demand at 2.44b bushels, up 4% YoY. For the global market, the USDA estimates production will jump significantly, following higher production estimates from South America and the US for 2023/24. The agency forecasts global soybean production to rise almost 11% YoY to 410.6mt (+40.2mt YoY) with higher supplies coming from Argentina (+21mt), Brazil (+8mt), the US (+6.4mt) and Paraguay (+1.2mt). Meanwhile, global soybean demand is expected to increase by 6% YoY to 386.5mt with demand growth mainly coming from Argentina (+5.5mt), China (+5.3mt) and Brazil (+2.7mt). Global soybean ending stocks are estimated at 122.5mt for 2023/24, compared to 101mt from a year ago and market expectations of around 108mt. Overall, the release was bearish for soybeans with both US and global ending stocks coming in above market expectations. This also gives us comfort in our more bearish outlook. But obviously, there are still risks heading into the US summer. Soybeans supply/demand balance Source: USDA, ING Research Wheat balance to tighten further The USDA expects US wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 to fall by 42m bushels (-7% YoY) to 556m bushels, the lowest in 16 years. The market was expecting a number closer to 602m bushels. US wheat production is estimated at 1,659m bushels for 2023/24, marginally higher than the 1,650m bushels seen a year ago due to the increased area. However, it is still below market expectations of 1,812m bushels. Global wheat ending stocks are forecast to total 264.3mt for 2023/24, slightly lower than the 266.3mt estimated for 2022/23 but above market expectations of around 260mt. Global wheat production projections were seen at 789.8mt, up 1.5mt from 2022/23 estimates. The increase in supply from Argentina, Canada, China, the EU, and India was partially offset by declining output from Australia, Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. Read next: FX Daily: Conflicting forces, but debt ceiling dominates| FXMAG.COM The WASDE was somewhat bullish for wheat prices given the large drop expected in US ending stocks for 2023/24. However, developments related to the Black Sea grain deal will also be crucial for price direction.    Wheat supply/demand balance Source: USDA, ING Research Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
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Profitability Under Pressure: Analyzing the Impact of Falling Grain Prices on IMC's Financial Outlook

GPW’s Analytical Coverage Support Programme 3.0 GPW’s Analytical Coverage Support Programme 3.0 31.05.2023 09:45
Falling grain prices likely weigh on profitability In this report we revise financial forecasts and valuation for IMC downgrading recommendation from Buy to Hold and lowering target price from PLN 22.56 to PLN 18.28 p.s.   Since our last company update from Dec 2022, wheat and corn prices fell by 31% and 14% respectively. Falling spot prices reflect ample supply, coming mainly from Russia. USDA forecast 2023e harvest to remain high as well, likely weighing on expectations of future prices. On the side of production costs we highlight falling of fertilizers and diesel prices.   Regarding IMC financial forecast, we lowered our EBITDA estimates for 2023e which is associated with lower grains’ prices and rising costs (IMC makes major cost positions hedges well in advance). Compared to our previous report, we also expect lower volumes sales mainly stemming from higher sales of inventories between 4Q22 and 1Q23. Realized prices will continue to command hefty discount to European market prices stemming from high transport cost.   Weak macro and worsening of operational prospects in current year may take back seat in the light of falling geopolitical risk. Successful Ukraine’s counteroffensive may fuel rerating of Ukrainian companies pushing share prices higher on the optimism surge. For the moment being we assume Ukraine’s risk free rate at 36%/20%/7% in 2023e/24e and thereafter.   We also assume risk premium at 20% in 2023e and 10% thereafter, which in our view reflect the risk of investing in companies operating in a country where full-scale war takes place. From the point of view of cash flows, thanks to the high inventories sales between 4Q22 and 1Q23 cash generation seemed solid, hence for the moment being, liquidity risk lowered considerably. The company said in 1Q23 financial report it managed to extend credit line and pay off short-term debt.     Forecasts and valuation update Financial forecasts update   In this report, we change our financial forecasts for IMC mainly due to the falling of grain prices since our previous company update released in September 2022. Both corn and wheat remain under pressure which stems from the ample supply as well as economic slowdown (corn is more exposed to the cycle through ethanol fuel enduses).   We point out price discounts IMC is reporting on sales compared to the average spot market prices (76% vs ca. 100% of full-cycle average for corn). High price discount is also associated with rising selling and distribution expenses per ton, likely the result of costly process of exporting grains by railway (in general it’s more expensive than ship) or freight (costs of insurances, freight rates etc.). Admittedly, the unit cost of sales went down over a few months from ca. USD 60 to USD 30, however volumes sales growth keep sales expense in the P&L at elevated level. We also highlight the problem of rising production costs: admittedly spot fertilizers prices go down recently, but hedging of 2023e costs took place in winter 2022.   In our view, the change of sentiment toward Ukrainian agri companies require either reversing the negative trend on grains prices or falling of geopolitical risk associated with the upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive. From the point of view of business environment we’d rather err on the safe side hence the change of recommendation and cut of target prices. However, in case of some optimistic scenarios regarding development on the war front, Ukrainian companies’ shares prices may gain as a result of sentiment change or rerating of market multiples.     FAO grain index dropped in April 2023 to 136 points, the lowest since February 2022 when the war broke out. Most grains suffered losses in April, except for rice. In case of wheat, prices remained under pressure due to the ample availability from Russia and Australia. Beneficial weather conditions in the USA, Russia and Europe as well as EU reaching an agreement over Ukrainian grains transit through neighboring countries (including Poland) also encouraged prices to continue downward trend. In May, USDA raised the estimate of US grains conditions by 2 p.p. to 28%.   The agency also forecast second highest wheat harvest in Russia. Production is expected at 81.5mn tons, 11% down vs. record 2022 but still 2% higher vs 5Y average. USDA also remains optimistic with respect to European harvest, except for drought-hit Iberian Peninsula. European production is expected to come in around 139mn tons, 3% higher yoy and 5% higher vs 5Y average. Regarding corn, falling prices came on the heel of record high harvest in Brazil.   The additional factor dragging prices down are falling spot diesel and fertilizers prices. After pushing out Russian from Poltawa, Sumy, Czernichov and Charkow region, the key problems of Ukrainian agri companies remained export disruptions.   On July 22, 2022, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and UN signed Istambul Black Sea agreement, which guarantee safe marine grain export from Ukrainians ports on Black Sea.   The aim of said agreement was to reduce the price pressure on global grains market and prevent the famine affecting the poorest countries in the world. The agreement was set to last for 120 days with potential for renewal. In May 2023, the Black Sea agreement has been extended for another 60 days which has been confirmed by Ukraine and Turkey, brokering the deal and guaranteeing its execution. Marine grain transport was responsible for 70% of Ukrainian cereals international sales, whereas railway accounted for only 20% of sales.   Considering the importance of the agreement for Turkey and its bargaining power over Russia, we do not expect the deal will be terminated in the foreseeable future. Nonetheless, there is a non-zero risk of such an event following further escalation of the ongoing military conflict. In mid-April Poland, as well as other countries neighboring Ukraine, introduced unilateral bans on Ukrainian agri produce including grains.   The bold step was preceded by domestic farmers protests, blaming Ukrainian import for dumping prices and increased competition. Kiev as well as Brussels voiced its concerns and disappointment over the ban, whereas the latter said it’s EC jurisdiction to shape common trade policies.   At the end of April, the agreement has been reached which established a ban of produce sales directly in neighboring countries, whilst those countries will let the Ukrainian grain to be transited over their territories further West. It's difficult to say what part of rail export ended up specifically in CEE EU countries, nonetheless the extent of rail export is considerably lower vs. marine transport in general. We do not assume the agreement will have meaningful effect on Ukraine’s export level, which would suffer incomparably more in case of Black Sea agreement termination.   We assume total IMC grain sales at 874k tons this year and 770k tons in following years. We highlight the change of sales structure which reflects different grain acreage structure of corn, sunflower and wheat from 75%/10%/15% to 58%/14%/19%.   Changing production in favor of wheat and sunflower at the expense of corn stems from the need of limiting the usage of gas and power which is indispensable in the process of corn grain drying. Volume sales in 2022 turned out to be higher than we expected therefore proportionally lower sales in 2023 vs our previous expectations. From the point of view of financial results we expect this year considerably lower gain on sales of biological assets, which results from falling grains prices (additionally lowered by cost of transit) as well as higher costs of production.   At the same time, there is a chance of recognizing higher results on sales due to the very low price level used for establishing gains on recognition of biological assets in the preceding quarters vs current spot market prices. We highlight the accounting character of gains recognized on valuation of biological assets which is not tantamount to cash flows the company generates.   Valuation Our IMC valuation is based on DCF model indicating a 12M target price of PLN 18.26 per share.   We attach 100% weight to this valuation method as it better captures the long-term prospects, company-specific factors and country risk as well as limited number of peers exposed to similar set of risk factors. For illustrative purposes, we have prepared a peer comparison valuation based on 2023E - 2025E multiples which yields a 12M valuation of PLN 27.75              
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Market Update: Copper Inventory Withdrawals Tighten Spread, Saudi Arabia Raises Oil Prices

ING Economics ING Economics 06.06.2023 12:28
The Commodities Feed: Copper spread tightens on inventory withdrawals Oil prices are trading under pressure this morning on demand side uncertainties as Saudi Arabia increased the official selling price for July deliveries for all regions. LME copper continues to see inventory withdrawals as demand in Asia picks up.   Energy – Saudi increases the official selling price for oil Saudi Arabia increased its official selling price for all regions for July, a day after the nation pledged an additional oil supply cut for the same month. Saudi Aramco will sell the Arab Light crude for buyers in Asia at a US$3/bbl premium for July deliveries, an increase of US¢45/bbl compared to June 2023.The premium for the US and European deliveries has increased by US¢90/bbl, while buyers in the Mediterranean region will see an increase of US¢60/bbl. The hike in premium comes as a surprise considering ongoing demand concerns and that Saudi Arabia has been pushing for supply cuts to bring the oil market into balance.   Metals – Declining copper on-warrant stocks tighten LME spread Recent LME data shows that total on-warrant stocks for copper dropped by 17,750 tonnes – the biggest daily decline since October 2021 – for a second consecutive session to 71,575 tonnes (the lowest level in almost a month) as of yesterday. The majority of the outflows were reported from South Korea’s Busan warehouses. Meanwhile, cancelled warrants for copper rose by 18,025 tonnes after declining for three consecutive sessions to 27,375 tonnes yesterday, signalling potential further outflows. The cash/3m for copper stood at a contango of just US$4/t as of yesterday – compared to YTD highs of a contango of US$66.26/t from 23 May – indicating supply tightness in the physical market.   In mine supply, Peru’s latest official numbers show that copper output in the country rose 30.5% year-on-year (+1.2% month-on-month) to 222kt in April. The majority of the annual production gains came from the higher output levels from mines like Southern Peru Copper, the Las Bambas and Cerro. Cumulatively, copper production grew 15.7% YoY to 837.5kt in the first four months of the year. Among other metals, zinc production in the nation increased 31.4% YoY to 130.6kt in April.   In ferrous metals, the most active contract of iron ore trading at the Singapore Exchange extended its upward rally for a fifth consecutive session and traded above US$108/t this morning on speculations of more supportive steps from China to accelerate its economic growth. The recent market reports suggest that the People’s Bank of China is likely to cut the reserve-requirement ratio for banks and might also lower interest rates in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, BBG also reported that the Chinese government is preparing a new batch of measures to push growth in the property market.     Agriculture – US crop planting maintains the pace The USDA’s latest crop progress report shows that US corn plantings continue to rise with 96% of plantings completed as on 4 June, compared to 93% of planting done at this point in the season last year and the 5-year average of 91%. Similarly, soybean plantings are also growing, with 91% planted as of 4 June – well above the 76% seen at the same stage last year and the 5-year average of 76%. Meanwhile, spring wheat plantings are 93% complete. This is above the 81% planted at the same stage last season and in line with the 5-year average. Meanwhile, the agency rated around 36% of the winter wheat crop in good-to-excellent condition, up from 34% a week ago and 30% seen last year.   The USDA’s weekly export inspection data for the week ending 1 June indicated a drop in demand for US grains over last week. The agency stated that US corn export inspections stood at 1,181kt, lower from 1,346.4kt in the previous week and 1,458.5kt reported a year ago. For wheat, export inspections stood at 291.6kt, down from 391.3kt from the previous week and 355.3kt reported a year ago. Similarly, soybean export inspections fell to 214.2kt, compared to 243.1kt from a week ago and 370kt from a year ago.   The director general of the Ivory Coast's cocoa regulator, Conseil Café Cacao, stated that the domestic cocoa crop is expected to improve in 2022-23 (compared to the previous year) despite intensifying concerns about a potential outbreak of the swollen shoot virus. Ivory Coast cocoa production is stabilizing despite a slow start, taking the season's harvest projections between 2mt-2.2mt. Last week, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) projected an increase of 4% in Ivory Coast's cocoa output this season, reaching 2.20mt.
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China's Imports Recover: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Copper Boost Market Sentiment

ING Economics ING Economics 07.06.2023 10:48
The Commodities Feed: China's imports recover China’s crude oil and natural gas imports recovered strongly in May, which could help improve market sentiment. For copper, China’s concentrate imports jumped to a fresh high, while unwrought copper imports remain soft.   Energy – China's crude oil imports recover China’s crude oil imports recovered to 51.44mt or around 12.16MMbbls/d (up 17% month-on-month and 12% year-on-year) in May 2023, as some of the refineries increased their utilisation rate after concluding maintenance. Demand slowdown from China has been a major concern for the crude oil market recently, and a recovery in oil imports is likely to provide some comfort to the oil market. Higher refinery utilisation has also increased refined product supplies in the Chinese market, with China reverting to being a net exporter of refined products last month. Among other energy products, natural gas imports into China increased 17.3% YoY to 10.6mt in May as lower gas prices in the Asian market supported demand for storage.   In its latest short-term energy outlook report, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised higher domestic oil production estimates, as the decision by OPEC+ to extend output cuts could push oil prices higher and bring more investments into exploration.   The administration revised higher the production estimates to 12.61MMbbls/d for 2023 compared to earlier estimates of 12.53MMbbls/d and output of 11.88MMbbls/d in 2022. For 2024, production estimates are revised higher to 12.77MMbbls/d compared to earlier estimates of 12.69MMbbls/d. On the other hand, US demand for crude oil is revised down from 20.47MMbbls/d to 20.42MMbbls/d on slow demand for distillates – although this is still higher than the 20.28MMbbls/d of consumption in 2022.   Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that the US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.71MMbbls over the last week, in contrast to market expectations for the addition of around 350Mbbls. Cushing crude oil stocks are reported to have increased by 1.53MMbbls. On the products side, API reported that gasoline and distillates inventories rose by 2.42MMbbls and 4.5MMbbls respectively over the week ending 2 June. The more widely followed EIA report will be released later today.     Metals – Chinese copper concentrate imports at record highs China released its preliminary trade data for metals this morning, which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper fell 4.6% YoY to 444kt in May, largely on account of higher domestic production of the refined metal. Cumulatively, unwrought copper imports fell 11% YoY to 2.14mt in the first five months of the year.   Meanwhile, imports of copper concentrate rose 16.7% YoY to a fresh record of 2.56mt last month, with year-to-date imports up 8.8% YoY to 11.31mt from January to May this year. In ferrous metals, iron ore monthly imports rose 3.9% YoY (+6.3% MoM) to 96.17mt last month, while cumulative imports are up 7.7% YoY to 480.7mt from January to May.   On the exports side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium products shipments fell 29.7% YoY to 475.4kt last month while year-to-date exports declined 20.2% YoY to 2.32mt in the first five months of the year. Exports of steel products jumped 41% YoY to 36.4mt from January to May this year.   Meanwhile, data from the Mines and Geosciences Bureau shows that nickel output in the Philippines rose 5.4% YoY to 3.9dmt in 1Q23 despite only a few mines being in production. The bureau reported that only 13 out of the nation’s 33 operating mines reported output for the above-mentioned period, as some were impacted by unfavourable weather conditions while few were undergoing scheduled maintenance.   However, the bureau remains optimistic about the outlook for the mining industry over the long term, following the expected recovery of the global economy and strong demand for nickel ore.     Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge The latest trade numbers from Chinese Customs show that soybean imports in China rose 24.3% YoY (+65.6% MoM) to a record high of 12.02mt in May. The imports surged sharply as the delayed cargoes (due to last month's strict inspections) were finally unloaded at ports. Cumulatively, soybean imports rose 11.2% YoY to 42.3mt over the first five months of the year.   Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments from the EU reached 28.9mt for the season as of 4 June, up 11.4% compared to 25.9mt from the same period last year. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. Meanwhile, the EU’s corn imports stood at 24.6mt, compared to 15.3mt reported a year ago.
FOMC Minutes Reveal Policy Divisions as USD/JPY Falls Sharply

Oil Market Update: Demand Hopes Drive Recovery, OPEC Holds Estimates Steady

ING Economics ING Economics 14.06.2023 14:05
The Commodities Feed: Oil recovers on demand hopes Prospects of Chinese stimulus and an unchanged demand estimate from OPEC were supportive of oil prices yesterday with ICE Brent recovering to above US$74/bbl. For agriculture, CONAB has raised its corn and soybean production estimates for Brazil on favourable weather.   Energy – OPEC keeps supply demand estimates unchanged OPEC released its latest monthly oil market report yesterday, in which it left global oil demand growth projections unchanged at around 2.3MMbbls/d for 2023 with global oil demand pegged at 101.9MMbbls/d. However. OPEC highlighted the uncertainties to this outlook due to global economic developments and ongoing geopolitical tensions that could change the demand dynamics.   On the supply side, non-OPEC supply growth estimates for the year were left unchanged at 1.4MMbbls/d with global non-OPEC oil supply estimated to be around 67.2MMbbls/d. The group continues to see the requirement for OPEC crude at around 29.3MMbbls/d for 2023 compared to the actual output of 28.8MMbbls/d for the first quarter and 28.1MMbbls/d in May 2023. OPEC’s crude oil production dropped by 464Mbbls/d in May 2023 due to supply cuts from Saudi Arabia (-519Mbbls/d) and the UAE (-140Mbbls/d).     Meanwhile, the API reported that the US crude oil inventories increased by around 1MMbbls over the last week, in contrast to the average market expectations of the addition of around 0.3MMbbls. Cushing crude oil stocks are reported to have increased by 1.5MMbbls. On the products side, API reported that gasoline and distillates inventories rose by 2.1MMbbls and 1.4MMbbls respectively, over the week ending 9 June. The more widely followed EIA report will be released later today.     The latest market reports suggest that the US could purchase around 12MMbbls of crude oil for its State Petroleum Reserves as soft crude oil prices provide comfort on the supply side. The abovementioned figure includes the 3MMbbls of crude oil that is scheduled for delivery in August and another 3MMbbls/d of purchase that the US approved last week. SPR witnessed a withdrawal of around 180MMbbls last year (pushing total SPR inventory to a 40-year low of 354MMbbls currently) due to crude oil supply shortages after the Russia-Ukraine war and these purchases are aimed to refill the inventory.
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US Corn and Soybean Concerns: Drought Impact and Crop Conditions Worsen

ING Economics ING Economics 27.06.2023 11:06
Agriculture – US corn and soybean concerns The United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA’s) latest crop progress report continues to highlight concerns for the US corn and soybean crop, given current dry weather conditions. The USDA rated 50% of the corn crop in good-to-excellent condition over the last reporting week, lower than 55% a week ago and 67% seen at the same stage last year. In fact, the rating for the corn crop is the lowest seen for this time of year since 1988, whilst it is a similar story for soybeans, with 51% of the soybean crop rated good-to-excellent condition, down from 54% a week ago and 65% seen at the same stage last year. These poor crop conditions will leave speculative shorts nervous as we move through the growing season, and this is the reason why we have already seen some large amounts of short covering. Meanwhile, for winter wheat, an improvement was seen in crop conditions with 40% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition, up from 38% seen a week ago. Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry reported that Ukrainian grain exports remained almost unchanged from the previous year and stood at 48.4mt for 2022/23 as of 26 June with the current season nearing its end. These shipments include 16.6mt of wheat (down 11% year-on-year) and 28.8mt of corn (up 23% YoY). In a separate data release, the EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit projects Russia’s wheat harvest to fall 17% YoY to 86.7mt for 2023, as mixed weather conditions continue to hurt the wheat crop.
Bearish WASDE Report Impacting Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat

Bearish WASDE Report Impacting Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat

ING Economics ING Economics 13.07.2023 08:41
Agriculture: Bearish WASDE report The USDA’s latest WASDE report was a largely bearish affair, particularly for corn and soybeans. The USDA revised up its US corn production estimate by 55m bushels to 15.32bn bushels, on the back of a larger than expected planted area as reported in its recent acreage report. A reduction in yield estimates (due to recent dry weather) was not enough to offset the higher acreage. The market was expecting a larger fall in yields, therefore the USDA’s production estimate was above the 15.15b bushels the market was expecting. Higher output sees US ending stock estimates for 2023/24 at 2,262m bushels, up slightly from the previous forecast and above the 2,166m bushels the market was expecting. For the global balance, corn production for 2023/24 is forecast to increase by 1.7mt to 1,224.5mt, as output increases from Canada (+0.7mt) and Ukraine (+0.5mt) partially offset by reductions from the EU (-0.9mt). 2023/24 global ending stocks for corn were left largely unchanged at 314.1mt, although this was above the little more than 312mt the market was expecting. The USDA lowered 2023/24 US soybean output estimates by 210m bushels to 4,300m bushels due to lower acreage. The market was expecting further downside to soybean output, however, the agency left yields unchanged from last month. US 2023/24 ending stock estimates were reduced from 350m bushels to 300m bushels, which was still well above the roughly 206m bushels the market was expecting. For the global market, 2023/24 soybean production estimates were lowered by 5.4mt to 405.3mt, which leaves ending stocks for 2023/24 at just under 121mt.   Lastly, the USDA projects US wheat supplies to increase by 74m bushels to 1,739m bushels. This pushes US ending stock estimates up by 30m bushels to 592m bushels, which is above the roughly 565m bushels the market was expecting. For the global wheat market, the USDA expects 2023/24 wheat production to fall to 796.7mt this season, down from an earlier estimate of 800.2mt. As a result, ending stocks for 2023/24 were lowered by 4.2mt to 266.5mt, which is less than the market was expecting.
Collapse of Black Sea Grain Initiative Rattles Market: Impact on Ukrainian Grain Exports

Collapse of Black Sea Grain Initiative Rattles Market: Impact on Ukrainian Grain Exports

ING Economics ING Economics 24.07.2023 09:54
Collapse of grain deal rattles the market Grain markets have rallied this week following Russia’s refusal to extend the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The ratcheting up in tensions between Ukraine and Russia means that risks are skewed to the upside, particularly when it comes to the wheat market. However, for now, we do not see the market re-testing the 2022 highs.   How important is the Black Sea Grain Initiative? The Black Sea Grain Initiative came to fruition in July last year after the UN, Turkey, Ukraine and Russia agreed on the safe passage of vessels shipping agricultural commodities from three Ukrainian Black Sea ports: Odesa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny. The deal was originally set for 120 days with the intention for it to be extended by a similar duration. And while this initially happened, since March, Russia has only been prepared to extend the deal for periods of 60 days, which has led to elevated uncertainty across grain markets. In recent months and in the lead-up to Russia pulling out of the deal, flows from Ukrainian Black Sea ports slowed significantly with Ukraine suggesting that Russia was blocking vessel inspections. However, despite the many challenges and uncertainties with the deal, it has proved beneficial for grain flows and therefore for consumers. Ukraine has managed to ship almost 33m tonnes of grain under the deal since August last year. This has seen CBOT wheat prices trading more than 20% lower between the period the deal was announced and Russia suspending its participation. Of the almost 33m tonnes shipped under the deal, 16.9m tonnes was corn, whilst 8.9m tonnes was wheat. The remainder of flows were mostly sunflower oil/meal, barley and rapeseed.   Ukranian grain and oilseed exports under the Black Sea Grain Initiative (m tonnes)   These are not the only export volumes from Ukraine. According to Ukraine’s agricultural ministry, the country managed to ship a total of 29.5m tonnes of corn and 16.8m tonnes of wheat in 2022/23. This is due to the fact that Ukraine has also increased exports through other routes, via river, road and rail. However, there are obviously challenges in doing this. Firstly, transportation costs will be higher than shipping from the Black Sea in dry bulk vessels, secondly, there will be capacity constraints as well as other logistical issues moving this grain westwards. And finally, there has been pushback from neighbouring EU countries over the influx of Ukrainian grains into these markets, which has weighed on domestic prices. Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania have restricted grain imports from Ukraine since the spring, although transit is allowed. Recently, these countries have pressured the EU to extend restrictions which expire on 15 September, given the expectation that more grains will flow westwards now.     2022/23 total Ukranian grain exports (m tonnes)  
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Escalating Ukraine-Russia Tensions Drive Wheat Gains: Market Insights

ING Economics ING Economics 07.08.2023 14:03
Agriculture – Wheat gains on escalating Ukraine-Russia tensions CBOT wheat futures edged higher with the most active contract rising more than 2% this morning due to increasing tensions in the Black Sea region following the Ukrainian attack on Russian ships. According to recent updates about the Ukraine and Russia conflict, Ukrainian drone strikes near the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, a key hub for Russian grain and oil shipments, led to the closure of the port for several hours. The move was in retaliation for the numerous attacks by Russia on Ukrainian ports. Meanwhile, the latest reports from the Ukrainian Agriculture Ministry showed that the nation's grain shipments rose 29% YoY to 2.4mt as of 4 August. The exports included around 1.2mt of corn (- 3.7% YoY), whilst wheat shipments surged twofold against last year and stood at 880kt. The French agriculture ministry's initial estimates for the season show that the nation's corn harvest for the year is expected to rise to 11.2mt, compared to 10.9mt a year ago. Meanwhile, soft-wheat crop output is now seen slightly higher at 35.6mt, compared to the July estimate of 35mt. Despite the drop in planting, the improvement in harvest projections reflects the better yield after the drought-stricken 2022 which damaged crops. In its latest report, the European Commission reported the EU’s soft wheat exports for the ongoing season at 2.35mt this year as of 30 July, down from 2.7mt reported in a similar period a year ago. The major destinations for these shipments were Morocco, Algeria, and South Africa. The commission added that the nation's corn imports in a similar period stood at 1.17mt, down 28% compared to a year ago. The latest CFTC data show that money managers reduced their net bullish bets in CBOT corn by 9,862 lots to 16,741 lots as of 1 August. The fall was led by an increase in gross shorts by 25,065 lots, taking the total to 168,281 lots. Similarly, speculators decreased their net bullish bets in soybean by 26,246 lots to 94,493 lots. The move was fueled by a drop in gross longs by 22,583 lots, taking the total gross longs to 123,815 lots. Meanwhile, the net speculative short positions in CBOT wheat rose by 10,096 lots to 50,428 lots over the last reporting week following an increase in gross shorts.
USDA's WASDE Update: Wheat Tightens, Corn Loosens

USDA's WASDE Update: Wheat Tightens, Corn Loosens

ING Economics ING Economics 13.09.2023 08:49
WASDE update: Tighter wheat and looser corn market The USDA’s latest monthly WASDE report was constructive for wheat as adverse weather in Australia, Canada and the EU is expected to tighten global supply. However, the release was more bearish for corn on the back of revisions higher to US acreage and ending stocks.   Higher acreage pushes US corn supply up The USDA revised up its 2023/24 US corn production estimates by 23 million bushels to 15.13 billion bushels, with an increase in acreage offsetting lower yields. This is higher than the roughly 15 billion bushels the market was expecting. Planted acreage estimates were increased by 0.8 million acres to 94.9 million acres, whilst yield estimates were lowered by 1.3bu/acre to 173.8bu/acre. With no changes to demand estimates, 2023/24 ending stocks were increased by 19 million bushels to 2.2 billion bushels. This is higher than the roughly 2.13 billion bushels the market was expecting. Therefore, it was not surprising to see CBOT corn coming under pressure following the release. For the global balance, 2023/24 ending stock estimates were revised up from 311.1mt to 314mt primarily due to higher beginning stocks and expectations for larger US output. The market was expecting a number below 310mt, so again, the USDA’s estimate is a lot more bearish than what the market was expecting. It will also provide some comfort to those who have been concerned over lower export availability from Ukraine since the suspension of the Black Sea Grain deal.   Corn supply/demand balance
Ukraine's Odessa Port Damage Disrupts Grain Exports; US Wheat and Soybean Shipments Rise

Ukraine's Odessa Port Damage Disrupts Grain Exports; US Wheat and Soybean Shipments Rise

ING Economics ING Economics 26.09.2023 14:47
Agriculture – Damage to Ukraine's Odessa port Wheat prices firmed up yesterday on reports that Russia has ‘significantly damaged’ the Odesa port in Ukraine, one of the major ports for grain export. The latest attacks were reported to have damaged port infrastructure, grain storage facilities and warehouses at the ports. Ukraine’s export of grains from the port has largely stopped after Russia pulled out of the export deal. However, recently a few ships were reported to have managed shipments from the port. The latest attacks are likely to stop any residual exports from the port and also lower the possibility of export resumptions from the port in the near term. The USDA’s weekly export inspection data for the week ending 21 September show that US soybean and wheat shipments rose while corn exports slowed over the last week. US weekly inspection of corn exports stood at 661kt, lower than the 676kt over the previous week and up from 550kt reported a year ago. For wheat, export inspections stood at 451kt, up from 423kt last week but lower than the 589kt seen for the same period last year. Soybean export inspections stood at 482kt, higher than 430kt from a week ago and 292kt from a year ago. The USDA’s latest crop progress report shows that 53% of the US corn crop is rated in good to excellent condition, up from 51% in the previous week. Meanwhile, the harvest is progressing well with 15% of the crop harvested, up from 11% at the same stage last year and also above the five-year average of 13%. As for the US soybean crop, 50% of the crop is rated good to excellent, down from 52% the previous week. However, the harvest is progressing well, with 12% of the area harvested, up from just 7% at the same stage last year. It is also higher than the five-year average of 11%. Finally, winter wheat plantings are falling behind last year with 26% of the area planted, down from 30% at the same stage last year and also lower than the five-year average of 29%.
Brazilian Shipping Disruptions Propel Coffee Prices Higher in Agriculture Market

Brazilian Shipping Disruptions Propel Coffee Prices Higher in Agriculture Market

ING Economics ING Economics 25.01.2024 13:10
Agriculture: Shipping disruptions from Brazil push coffee higher Arabica coffee front month contract jumped around 7% yesterday as shipping disruptions from Brazil risk tightening the market in the short term. Brazil’s ports are facing strikes by customs officers and other inspectors from 22-26 January that are likely to delay shipments originating from Brazil. The tensions around the Red Sea trade route have further supported coffee prices. The shipment disruptions from Brazil could impact other commodities as well including soybeans, corn and sugar.   According to China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, soybean production in China reached an all-time high of 20.84mt in 2023 primarily due to the country’s support for food security. Meanwhile, the soybean planting area in China reached 157 million mu (about 10.47 million hectares) last year, while that of oilseed crops exceeded 200 million mu. The ministry added that it plans to further increase the planting of genetically modified corn and soybean crops in a push to boost grain output and bolster food security in the country.   The USDA’s weekly export inspection data for the week ending 18 January shows that export inspections for corn stood at 713.3kt over the week, lower than 946.4kt in the previous week and 728.8kt reported a year ago. Similarly, US soybeans export inspections stood at 1,161.1kt, down from 1,278.2kt a week ago and 1,839.2kt seen last year. For wheat, US export inspections came in at 314.5kt, compared to 242.2kt from a week ago and 349.4kt reported a year ago.

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