core PCE index

Dollar weakens as inflation cools Apple reaches historic $3 trillion market cap Fed rate hike bets eye a peak at 5.410%   US stocks are rallying after the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge showed the disinflation process remains intact and the consumer is showing signs of weakness. A hot inflation report and Fed swaps might have been convinced that a second-rate hike by year end was likely.  Treasury yields edged lower after the PCE report was a little dovish. US Data The core personal consumption expenditure index, a key reading followed by the Fed rose 0.3% in May, matching the consensus estimate.  On annual basis, the PCE reading dropped from 4.7% to 4.6%.  Personal spending came in softer at 0.1%, while the prior reading was revised lower from 0.8% to 0.6%.  The consumer is starting to look a lot weaker and that should support inflation to drop even further over the coming months.   Apple Apple is attempting to become the first $3 trillion company as Wall Street remains all-in on mega-cap tech stocks.  Last month, Apple’s capitalization became more valuable than the entire Russell 2000 and it seems like that could widen further.  Apple got a boost after Citi raised their price target to a Street-high price of $240.  Apple’s outlook remains solid given their balance sheet and future revenue projects, but these latest gains might be more of a defensive switch for traders who see a US economy that is recession bound.    

Rates Spark: Can Christine sound as calm as Jerome? The more Chair Powell spoke yesterday, the more he meandered into less hawkish territory. But he did not stray too far. Next up is the ECB's Lagarde, who is more prone to deviate. The 25bp hike is not the point. The tone is. We show that the US 10yr yield looks low relative to the strip, while in fact the 10yr Euribor rate looks if anything high versus its strip.   The Fed cements a mild rate cutting discount ahead, keep upward pressure on Treasury yields From a market rates perspective one of the key things to watch from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) outcome was how the Fed decision and subsequent commentary might affect the Fed funds strip. In particular, beyond the hiking and into the discounting completion of the rate cutting phase. This is important, as where the fed funds strip sits in 2025 has a material effect on longer-dated Treasury yields, as, say the 10yr yield, really should not trade much through the longer dates on the strip. In fact they should trade at a 30bp premium to it (above it). We went into the FOMC with the Jan 2025 implied rate at just under 4%. It’s still there post the meeting, but closer to 3.9% now (as it jumps around, typically on low volumes). Remember this was down in the 3% area when Silicon Valley Bank went down. The fact that its some 100bp higher now limits the extent to which the 10yr Treasury yield can fall. In fact it should rise, and we continue to target it to get to the 4% area in the coming weeks, versus a current level of around 3.9%. That is broadly flat to the implied funds rate in Jan 2025. That’s too low for the 10yr yield, as it implies no curve just as the Fed has completed it rate cutting cycle.     We are not agreeing with the market discount per se, but where it sits is important in terms of framing the here and now for the 10yr Treasury yield, and in that way helps to add context to the immediate few weeks ahead. Meanwhile, the Fed continues to gradually tighten through its bond roll-off programme. Most of the impact of this has been in lower volumes going back to the Fed on the reverse repo facility. Bank reserves have in fact held steady. This allows the Fed to keep the tightening pressure on. It also keeps bills rates under elevation pressure, and prevent the bills curve from moving to a state of material inversion. At least not just yet. And, all other key rates are up by 25bp too, including the reverse repo rate now at 5.3%. The ECB to match the Fed, but the 10yr Euribor rate trade with more of a cushion It's the European Central Bank's turn on Thursday, with a 25bp hike anticipated. Delivery will see the Refi rate get to 4.5% and the Deposit rate to 3.75%, with the latter still heavily influential with respect to where front end Euribor rates are actually pitched. The current 3mth Euribor rate is pitched at just over 3.7%, at or about the level of the deposit rate. And the Euribor strip has it extending up to 3.9%, and so just about discounting one more 25bp hike.   The biggest attention will be centered on the words coming from President Lagarde. Chair Powell post the FOMC outcome started off sticking to script, but slowly morphs to an acknowledgement that inflation has indeed fallen, the real rate had risen and was indeed in a restrictive state. As the conference went on he was almost on the verge of a nod towards an eventual rate cutting track down the line. Lagarde will need to be a bit more careful. Chair Powell tends not to stray too far from script, while Lagarde can deviate far more. If we look out along the Euribor strip, the 3mth rate is discounted to be below 3% by the middle of 2025, and it stays below, getting down to 2.7%. There is a gap between that and where the 10yr Euribor rate currently sits at around 3.6%. Here there is a difference relative to the US, there the 10yr Treasury yield is already flat to or below where the fed funds strip is pitched. Part of this is reflective of the tendency of the deposit rate to have an outsized influence, but it's not all that. Optically there is more value in 10yr Euribor on this simple measure.   Today's events and market views Ahead of the ECB meeting, we'll have some regional consumer confidence, produce price inflation and retail sales. But nothing that is likely to move the market in any material fashion. More influential will be the US data. US GDP data for the second quarter is expected to confirm that the US economy continued to growth at a pace of almost 2%, while the GDP price index is set to fall to about 3%. The latter is a good look, and a reminder of the recent CPI number at the same rate. The core PCE index should be more influential though. It too should fall, but to a still elevated 4%. We'll also get durable orders, which should see a calming in the ex-transportation reading. But still far from a recesionary-type number. The headline should remain elevated, in the area of 1.3% helped by airline orders. We'lll also get another helping of weekly jobless claims, expected to be still in the 230k area, and still well below average. And then there are inventories data which should not be very market moving. Home sales data is expected to be weak, but has had a tendency to surprise to the upside of late. And the the Kansas City Fed Index should be weak too, especially given its aimed at the manufacturing sector where weakness has been in the waters for quite some time now.

The EUR/USD pair has been caught in turbulence amid conflicting fundamental signals, causing the price to move sideways. Market participants still need to unravel this tangle of contradictions to determine the price's direction. Currently, traders are driven by emotions, experiencing a rollercoaster-like ride. The verdict of the Federal Reserve and the US GDP The results of the Federal Reserve's July meeting were not in favor of the greenback. Bulls returned to the 1.1150 resistance level (the Tenkan-sen line on the 1D chart) and tested it. However, when it comes to the overall outcome, it would be more accurate to say otherwise: the market interpreted the results of the July meeting against the US currency, while the Fed's verdict can be viewed from different angles. The US central bank avoided specifics, especially regarding the future prospects of tightening monetary policy. According to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, everything will depend on what new economic data shows: the September meeting may end with either a rate hike or keeping rates unchanged. Such rhetoric disappointed dollar bulls, as recent inflation reports came out in the "red," reflecting a slowdown in inflation in the US. It is logical to assume that if July's inflation follows the trajectory of June's, the September rate hike will be in question. These conclusions put significant pressure on the greenback – the US dollar index hit a weekly low, declining towards the 100 level. However, the situation changed drastically. Dollar bulls once again saw a "light at the end of the tunnel" thanks to the latest US GDP report. The data significantly surpassed forecasts.   According to preliminary calculations, US GDP increased by 2.4% in the second quarter, with a growth forecast of 1.8%. It is worth mentioning that the first quarter's result was recently revised upwards: the initial estimate showed a 1.3% growth in the US economy, while the final data showed a different result of 2.0%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis report (US Department of Commerce agency) indicates that this growth was driven by increased consumer spending, government and local government spending, growth in non-residential fixed investment, private investment in equipment, and federal government spending. Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy, increased by 1.6% in the second quarter, while government spending increased by 2.6%. EUR/USD sellers are back in action In addition to the GDP report, dollar bulls were also pleasantly surprised by another indicator.   Durable Goods Orders in the US increased 4.7% in June, compared to forecasts of 1.3%. This reading followed the 2.0% increase recorded in May. Orders for durable goods excluding transportation also rose by 0.6% last month. This component of the report also showed a positive outcome, as most experts expected a more modest growth of 0.1%.   As a result, hawkish expectations regarding the Fed's future actions have increased in the market. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis points rate hike in September is nearly 30%, whereas after the announcement of the July meeting's outcome, this probability fluctuated in the range of 19-20%. Such an information background contributed to the "revival" of the greenback.   The US dollar index fully recovered all lost positions, rising to the middle of the 101 level. Consequently, the EUR/USD pair plummeted and hit two-week price lows.       The European Central Bank also played its role in this. Following the July meeting, the ECB raised interest rates by 25 basis points but did not announce further steps in this direction.   Similar to the Fed, the ECB indicated that one additional rate hike from the central bank would now depend on key economic data, primarily inflation. According to ECB President Christine Lagarde, the central bank has "turned off the autopilot" – decisions on interest rates will be made from meeting to meeting and will be based on "inflation forecasts, economic and financial data, and the underlying inflation dynamics."   It is worth noting that after the previous meeting, Lagarde had directly announced the rate hike at the July meeting. Conclusions The latest US reports, as well as the outcomes of the ECB's July meeting, "redrew" the fundamental picture for the EUR/USD pair. There is one more important piece of the puzzle remaining: the core PCE index, which will be published at the start of the US session on Friday, July 28th. However, for another upward reversal, this indicator must deviate significantly from the forecasted value (naturally, in a downward direction), with experts predicting a declining trend to 4.2% (following the May increase to 4.6%).   From a technical perspective, you can consider short positions on the pair after sellers overcome the support level of 1.0950 (Tenkan-sen line on the weekly chart). In such a case, the next bearish target for EUR/USD would be at 1.0850 – the upper band of the Kumo cloud on the 1D chart.  

It's early December, which means traders have very little time left before the start of the "dead season." The currency market will be active for a few more weeks before entering the Christmas-New Year lethargy. The EUR/USD pair is no exception here. Typically, life in the FX market slows down after the December meetings of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (on December 12-13 and 14, respectively). For some time, traders reflect on the outcomes of these meetings, but inevitably, "winter holidays" set in. The main feature of the upcoming week is the "silence" of the Fed officials. The so-called "blackout period" started on Saturday: for 10 days leading up to the Fed meeting, officials of the U.S. central bank generally do not speak publicly or grant interviews. Therefore, EUR/USD traders will be focused on economic reports. Let's take a look at the economic calendar and see what awaits us in the coming days.   Monday The first working day is traditionally quite empty for EUR/USD. During the European session, the Sentix investor confidence indicator will be published. This is a leading indicator as it measures investors' sentiment towards the eurozone economy. Since March 2022, the indicator has been in the negative territory, but in November, it showed positive dynamics, rising from -21.9 to -18.6. In December, experts expect a further improvement to -15.0. Also on Monday, ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to speak. She will participate in a conference that includes a Q&A session. The head of the ECB may comment on the latest eurozone inflation data, although the theme of the meeting, let's say, does not lend itself to such questions (the conference is organized by the French Academy of Ethics and Political Sciences). During the U.S. session, a report on factory orders in America will be published. The volume of total orders is expected to decrease by 2.7% in October, while core orders are expected to increase by only 0.3%. Tuesday On Tuesday, the final estimates of the PMI data for November will be published. According to forecasts, they will coincide with the initial reports (in this case, the market will likely ignore this data). Traders will focus on the ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which will be published during the U.S. session. This indicator has declined over the past two months, but according to most experts, it will rise to 52.5 points in November. However, if the index falls into the "red zone," the dollar will come under significant pressure. Let me remind you that the ISM Manufacturing Index published last week did not support the greenback. In November, it reached 46.7 points, against forecasts of an increase to 48.0 (the manufacturing index has been in contraction territory for the 13th consecutive month). In addition, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release data on the level of job vacancies and labor turnover. However, considering that the market is anticipating the Non-Farm Payrolls data later in the week, they will likely overlook Tuesday's report.   Wednesday At the start of the European session, we will learn about the October volume of industrial orders in Germany. In annual terms, the indicator has been in the negative territory since July, and judging by forecasts, the situation is not expected to improve in October (forecast -5.6%). The main report of the day will be announced during the U.S. session, which is the non-farm employment in the United States from ADP. This report is considered to play the role of a kind of "harbinger" ahead of the release of official data—although quite often these indicators do not correlate. Nevertheless, the ADP report can trigger increased volatility among dollar pairs, especially if it comes out in the green/red zone. According to experts, 120,000 non-farm jobs were created in November. If the figure falls below the 100,000 mark, the greenback may come under pressure. Also, U.S. data on labor cost will be published (final estimate). This indicator, for the first time since the beginning of 2021, dropped into negative territory in the third quarter. According to forecasts, the final estimate will be revised downwards (from -0.8% to -0.9%). On the same day, ECB Executive Board member Joachim Nagel (head of the Bundesbank) will speak. Before the release of the latest data on eurozone inflation, he voiced rather hawkish theses, allowing for additional interest rate hikes in the foreseeable future. We do not know whether his position will change in light of recent events.   Thursday On this day, we will learn the final estimate of the eurozone Q3 GDP data. According to forecasts, the final result should match the second estimate (-0.1%). During the U.S. session, weekly data on initial jobless claims will be published. Since mid-October, this indicator has fluctuated in the range of 210,000 to 220,000 (except for one week when the count jumped to 233,000). According to forecasts, for the upcoming week, the indicator will come in at 220,000, i.e., at the upper limit of the "established" range. Furthermore, secondary economic reports will be released (wholesale inventories - final estimate, and consumer credit), but they usually do not have any significant impact on the market.   Friday On the last day of the trading week, key U.S. labor market data for the month of November will be published. According to preliminary forecasts, the unemployment rate in November will remain at the October level, i.e., at 3.9%. The number of non-farm payrolls is expected to increase by 185,000 (after a 150,000 increase in October) – meaning the figure will once again fall short of the 200,000 mark. In the private sector, the number of employed is expected to grow by 155,000 (after a 99,000 increase in October). And the average hourly wage level is expected to demonstrate a downtrend again – down to 4.0% YoY (in this case, it will be the lowest value of the indicator since August 2021). Obviously, such a result will not benefit the dollar, especially amid a decrease in CPI, producer price index, and the core PCE index.   On the bullish side, we have the dovish comments from some of the Fed officials (Waller, Goolsby), conflicting signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and a decline in key inflation indicators. On the bearish side, we have the eurozone inflation data. The "red tint" of the latest report put an end to the discussion about the ECB rate hike in the coming months. The euro lost its fundamental trump card, but, as we know, the EUR/USD pair can successfully rise only due to the dollar's weakness. For instance, on Friday, the bears tried to break through to the 1.08 level but eventually failed. In my opinion, in the medium-term perspective (until the release of the NFP data), traders will exercise caution (both sellers and buyers), trading on "neutral territory," i.e., in the range of 1.0850 – 1.0930 (lower and middle Bollinger Bands lines on the 4H timeframe, respectively).