consolidation

COT reports on the British pound show that the sentiment of commercial traders has been changing quite frequently in recent months. The red and green lines, representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, often intersect and, in most cases, are not far from the zero mark.

According to the latest report on the British pound, the non-commercial group closed 10,000 buy contracts and 4,200 short ones. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by 5,800 contracts in a week. Since bulls currently don't have the advantage, we believe that the pound will not be able to sustain the upward movement for long . The fundamental backdrop still does not provide a basis for long-term purchases on the pound.

 

The non-commercial group currently has a total of 58,800 buy contracts and 44,700 sell contracts. Since the COT reports cannot make an accurate forecast of the market's behavior right now, and the fundamentals are practically the same for both

Gold Stocks Have Performed Very Well Under Pressure

Gold Price Fails Essential Support, But The Bulls Still Have A Chance | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 13.05.2022 11:34
A sell-off in the equity market and a new wave of flight to the dollar on Thursday provided the perfect combination to knock out gold, which slipped to $1810 in thin trading on Friday morning, falling to its lowest level since early February. The current decline in the price makes us keep a close eye on further developments Right now, it’s up to gold to decide whether we see a double top formation or whether the bulls are gaining strength and liquidity ahead of a new multi-month rising momentum. The current decline in the price makes us keep a close eye on further developments. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM A consolidation of the week under $1830 would reinforce that signal Yesterday, gold took a sharp plunge under the 200 SMA, which is often a bearish factor for the instrument. A consolidation of the week under $1830 would reinforce that signal. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM A potential bull target, in this case, could be the $2500 area This would open the way for another roughly 25% drop into the $1350 area, the area of the 2015-2018 highs. If we see an uptick in buyers’ in the hours and days ahead, we could say that gold is in a correction. Potentially, a reversal to the upside from these levels could signal the start of a new wave of long-term growth, the first impulse of which was in 2018-2020, followed by a prolonged wide side trend. A potential bull target, in this case, could be the $2500 area.
Crypto Focus: Markets Continue to Ride the Downtrend

Crypto Focus: Markets Continue to Ride the Downtrend

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 27.05.2022 12:26
Another lower week traders as the top 10 and top 25 lost further gains continuing the current downtrend. If this week closes lower, that will set 8 weekly lower bars in a row. We discussed a few coins this week, emphasising continuation patterns that formed during the week. We did see some confirmations yesterday as sellers got things back on their terms in the European session. BTC fought back from lows abut sellers regained control on Friday’s session. AVAX was one of the significant coins hardest hit as it set new monthly lows. One positive is that the top 10 didn’t retest their May lows despite most hitting new weekly lows. As noted, buyers resisted the pressure with ranges and consolidations ruling before Thursday’s push lower. ETH seen to be dropping over merger frustration. Confidence drop? Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd once saw Bitcoin hitting $400,000. Now he says it’s more like $8,000. LUNA 2.0 blockchain was approved this week. After the fundamental weakness that we all saw with our own two eyes, we wish that any readers thinking about this should approach with caution and use strict risk management if they choose to go ahead. Ripple, on the other hand, has seen solid buying as price has declined. Reports say whales have been quietly accumulating the coin during this week’s declines and we can see this on the charts today. XRP is this week’s focus due to this buying. XRP caught our attention as it started edging into the positive while other coins continued to see red. Let’s take a look at the daily chart. Price continues to see support and demand from 0.38. We see two failed lows this month, and while price remains above the latter one, we will continue to look at it as a new HL. Price sits in a descending triangle pattern. A break higher, and this could be a new leg higher in the making. A break lower and we will look for the current downtrend to continue. The post Crypto Focus: Markets Continue to Ride the Downtrend appeared first on Eightcap.
Crypto Focus: Buyers have once again come out to try and settle things down

Crypto Focus: Buyers have once again come out to try and settle things down

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 08.07.2022 08:24
Overall, it has been a positive week so far for most of the coins. After a pullback from gains last week, buyers have once again come out to try and settle things down. Could this be the start of a foundation being set by buyers that could turn into a new counter rally? More time is required before we can start thinking that’s the case, but for now, things are ok as sellers have stopped being able to set new lower lows. The top 25 index looks similar to a few of the major charts on the weekly. One solid bar up followed by a bar lower that failed to test lows and a new fightback this week that, in some cases, has set new weekly highs or beaten last week’s opening price. What we want to see from the buyer side is a hold of the last key low. If this can remain in play, that could continue to feed ideas that a bottom is trying to come in. For now, most of the coins continue to follow the wider fortunes of risk markets as we have seen a recovery in stock indexes and major risk currencies to the USD. The USD has found buyer demand today, and US employment numbers could add to or hurt that story. While Crypto remains heavily pegged to risk, it might come down to USD demand to see if we see the current lows hold. Our focus today is on Bitcoin. BTCUSD D1 continues to look positive. Price gaining over 13%, hitting 22K. price still remains below the main downtrend line, but we have seen a higher breakout of the consolidation pattern. The key now for buyers in the short term is to break 21,750 resistance. A fail there could see price continue to consolidate, but a break could set up a new test of the main downtrend. The post Crypto Focus: Buyers have once again come out to try and settle things down appeared first on Eightcap.
Crypto: Bitcoin Price Chart (BTC/USD) - What Do We Learn?

Crypto: Bitcoin Price Chart (BTC/USD) - What Do We Learn?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 15.07.2022 12:08
Another mixed week traders. We started the week with declines that started last weekend and dragged into the week as sellers looked to have taken control. In a positive twist, buyers emerged on Wednesday and stopped the move lower. We saw an average-looking spinner bar that day, but it shifted momentum, and buyers set up a nice day on Thursday with just over 7% added to the top 10 and 7.90% to the top 25. The week centred on the continuing fallout from what’s been dubbed “the Crypto Winter” and the collapses of Three Arrows and Celsius. These two were big players in the industry, and their failures are still sending jitters through the industry. Things look bleak for leaders of TAC, as with last reports suggesting outstanding loans won’t be able to be repaid. Reports also noted the directors of TAC could have gone into hiding. Both were reported by articles on CNBC this week. Continuing to move on with the positive, today we’re seeing price continue its rebound with new two-day highs on the CRYPTO10 and CRYPTO25 indexes. As usual, opinions are divided on whether we will see a new extension lower or if we could be in a technical pause that could turn into a rebound. We are going to break down bitcoin and put forward or ideas on what we would like to see happen, to say yes, we could have a rally or the warning signs that we could see a new extension lower. There is talk from other analysts that Bitcoin could still have to make one more leg lower before it could find a bottom. The general lower price area is seen from 15,000 – 13,000. This is a slightly longer outlook for Bitcoin, but we feel that the current position and pattern is important not only for the next step in BTC but also for Crypto, as we all know that Bitcoin still drives most of the top caps in the market. Incorporating some of the points above about one more leg down this can be seen in the chart with price currently sitting in a consolidation pattern in two downtrends. We can see a triangle around the current consolidation, but we can also see two clear key levels of support and demand holding the current price action. Price has also lined up nicely with a return to the faster downtrend. The OBV also shows a pattern we have seen in the recent declines. And like price the OBV has also returned to its downtrend. So it is rather simple for us, break the triangle and break support. We could be seeing the start of a new extension lower. If buyers can break above resistance and through the fast downtrend, we could be looking at a deeper move higher. The post Crypto Focus: We’re seeing price continue its rebound appeared first on Eightcap.
Navigating the European Landscape: Assessing the Significance and Variations of Non-Bank Financial Institutions

Analyzing the EUR/USD: Euro's Decline Expected as ECB and Fed Monetary Policies Diverge

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 06.06.2023 08:08
The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Monday. Not as strong as on Friday, but still a decline. Thus, the pair spent less than a day above the moving average line and now may drop to the last local minimum and continue its movement to the south. We have repeatedly mentioned that we expect a decline in the past two months. And in the last month (when the pair was already actively falling), we constantly repeated that the decline should continue.   There have been no grounds for the euro to rise in the past three months, during which it enjoyed active demand. Now it's time to "repay debts." The minimum target for the decline is 1.0500. On the 24-hour timeframe, the pair ended only one day out of the last 25, with a significant increase. It might have seemed that a new upward movement would begin, leading to a resumption of the upward trend, but last Friday and Monday show that such a conclusion is premature. The euro currency rose within the last upward trend by almost 1600 points, which implies a correction of at least 600–700 points. That is, to the range of 1.03–1.04.   And because there are no grounds for resuming the movement to the north, these targets look even more convincing. Thus, we expect the continuation of a calm decline. All the movements of the past months are very similar to consolidation - a type of movement when the pair does not have a clear trend but is not in a flat state either. Consolidation will continue until the first signs of readiness to soften monetary policy from the Fed or the ECB appear. In principle, everything written below is not "big news." Over the past few weeks, we have witnessed many speeches by ECB and Fed representatives. And if unexpected information came from anyone, it was from the members of the FOMC. Recall that the market fervently believed that the last planned increase in the key rate in the United States took place in May.       However, several Fed representatives immediately indicated that the rate could be raised again in June, and some stated that the regulator could now raise the rate once every two meetings. However, the rate will continue to rise, which the market did not anticipate. The situation with the ECB and its monetary policy is much simpler. Almost all monetary committee members insist on further tightening, so there is no doubt that the rate will increase by another 0.5% at the next two meetings. However, some analytical agencies and major banks believe that we will see the last rate hike in June, which raises doubts about a rate hike after August 2023.   If so, the ECB's rate will remain much lower than the Fed's rate, and in 2023, it will increase by approximately the same value. Thus, the euro currency loses the growth factor that could help it in the coming months. Bostjan Vasle stated last Friday that it is necessary to continue raising the rate to combat high inflation effectively. He also noted that core inflation needs to be higher. His colleague Gabriel Makhlouf confirmed that the ECB intends to continue tightening its monetary policy.     He also noted the high level of core inflation and that the end of the tightening cycle has yet to come. Mr. Makhlouf said the current picture is quite blurry, besides the confidence in two more rate hikes. It is worth adding that the market has long worked out the rate hikes mentioned above. We have already mentioned many times that after slowing down the pace of tightening to a minimum, we can expect three more 0.25% rate hikes.   Thus, two rate hikes in June and August are logical and expected. They could have been anticipated several months ago. Therefore, the current "hawkish" sentiment of the ECB representatives does not provide any support for the euro currency. In the 4-hour timeframe, the downward trend is visible. The oversold condition of the CCI indicator has been worked off, so now the pair can continue to decline with a calm mind.   The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of June 6th is 81 points and is characterized as "average." Thus, we expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.0631 and 1.0793 on Tuesday. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back upwards will indicate a possible resumption of the upward movement.   Nearest support levels: S1 - 1.0681 S2 - 1.0620   Nearest resistance levels: R1 - 1.0742 R2 - 1.0803 R3 - 1.0864   Trading recommendations: The EUR/USD pair has dropped below the moving average line. It is advisable to stay in short positions with targets at 1.0681 and 1.0631 until the Heiken Ashi indicator reverses upward. Long positions will become relevant only after the price firmly reclaims above the moving average line, with targets at 1.0793 and 1.0803.   Explanations for the illustrations: Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, it indicates a strong trend. Moving average line (settings: 20.0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and direction for trading.   Murray levels - target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility levels (red lines) - the probable price channel the pair is expected to trade in the next 24 hours, based on current volatility indicators. CCI indicator - its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or overbought area (above +250) indicates an approaching trend reversal in the opposite direction.  
GBP/USD: Bearish Outlook Prevails Amidst Lack of Fundamental Drivers

GBP/USD: Bearish Outlook Prevails Amidst Lack of Fundamental Drivers

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 07.06.2023 09:36
The GBP/USD currency pair failed to continue its upward movement for the third consecutive time on Tuesday after consolidating above the moving average line. It is worth noting that last week the pair showed significant growth, but there were hardly any solid reasons behind such a movement. Just looking at the calendar of fundamental events and the movements of the EUR/USD pair during the same period confirms this.   Currently, the pound is trying to figure out its next move. It remains close to its local peaks, which are too high for its current conditions. Remember that there are no substantial reasons for it to be that high. One of the reasons for the pound's strong rally in recent weeks could have been the oversold condition of the CCI indicator on May 11.     But it has already been accounted for and worked out in this case. It's time to head down again. There were no important publications or events in the UK or the US on Tuesday. Overall, this week will have a limited number of important events and news.     Therefore, the pair may continue to swing sideways. However, in the medium term, we expect it to decline in almost any case. Whether it will happen remains an open question because the market has shown us in recent months that it can buy when 80% of the factors suggest selling. In the 24-hour timeframe, the price rebounded from a critical line, and this signal is the main hope for a decline soon.     The Kijun-sen line is strong, so a decline can be expected after the rebound. Additionally, there won't be any significant reports or events soon to shift the market sentiment to "bullish" again suddenly. No matter how you look at it, the word "decline" is evident everywhere. There is no fundamental background, only sell signals. Regarding the fundamental background, there is nothing new to say after Tuesday.     There weren't even any minor speeches from the Bank of England or Fed officials. The next Federal Reserve meeting will occur on June 13-14, so the "quiet period" has already begun. This means there will be no speeches by Fed representatives until the meeting.   The same applies to BoE members. The topic of US government debt is closed. There is no news. Therefore, the pair may trade chaotically and flatly or swing back and forth over the next few weeks. Be prepared for any outcome. By the way, the CCI indicator almost entered the overbought zone again. If that had happened, the probability of a new decline would have increased significantly. Without that, we can only wait for a decline and be wary of another illogical rally.       We have already discussed the Fed rates in the article on EUR/USD; there is nothing new about the Bank of England's rates. It will undoubtedly increase by 0.25% at the next meeting, the thirteenth consecutive hike. Inflation in the UK remains high, and there is no guarantee it will slow down at the same pace as in April. Thus, the British regulator cannot ease its monetary pressure, but at the same time, the rate has already risen to 4.5%. This is not the maximum possible value. The rate could increase by another 0.25-0.5%, but GDP has remained near zero growth for three consecutive quarters. According to Andrew Bailey, each subsequent rate hike could harm the British economy, which will not enter a recession this year.   But it's uncertain. Let's mention the "head and shoulders" pattern forming between May 30 and June 6. If it is indeed forming, it provides another sell signal. Two shoulders are around the level of 1.2451. The head is around the level of 1.2543. The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the past five trading days is 98 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average."   Therefore, on Wednesday, June 7, we expect movements between 1.2322 and 1.2518. Reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back upward will signal a new upward movement phase.     Nearest support levels: S1 - 1.2421 S2 - 1.2390 S3 - 1.2360   Nearest resistance levels: R1 - 1.2451 R2 - 1.2482 R3 - 1.2512   Trading recommendations: On the 4-hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has settled below the moving average line, so short positions are currently relevant, with targets at 1.2360 and 1.2329. These positions should be held until the Heiken Ashi indicator reverses upward. Long positions can be considered if the price consolidates above the moving average line with targets at 1.2482 and 1.2512.   Explanations for the illustrations: Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. The trend is strong if both channels are directed in the same direction. Moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted.   Murray levels - target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility levels (red lines) - the probable price channel in which the pair will move the next day based on current volatility indicators. CCI indicator - its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or overbought area (above +250) indicates an upcoming trend reversal in the opposite direction.  
EUR/USD Stabilizes as Eurozone Recession Takes Backseat, GBP Undervalued Against EUR/GBP

EUR/USD Stabilizes as Eurozone Recession Takes Backseat, GBP Undervalued Against EUR/GBP

ING Economics ING Economics 09.06.2023 10:06
EUR: Shrugging off the recession EUR/USD is back around the 1.0800 handle, with the moves once again coming entirely from the USD leg. Domestically, the news of the eurozone entering a technical recession after the 1Q GDP revision was understandably overlooked by the market, and may well be overlooked too by an inflation-focused ECB next week (here is our economist’s meeting preview).   There are no domestic drivers for the euro today, and in line with what we highlighted in the USD section above, we expect some consolidation around current levels in core dollar pairs. EUR/USD could stabilise marginally below 1.0800.   Elsewhere in Europe, we saw EUR/CHF come under pressure yesterday following hawkish comments from the Swiss National Bank Governor Thomas Jordan, where he highlighted how current rates are low and “it’s not really a good idea to wait then have higher inflation later”. The SNB will announce policy on 22 June, and we expect a 25bp hike following a similar move by the ECB. It appears however, that the market is pricing in more beyond that hike, which is not part of our baseline scenario at the moment.   GBP: EUR/GBP is undervalued EUR/GBP has moved back below 0.8600 after a very small rebound and we estimate the pair to be trading at around a 2.0% short-term undervaluation at the current levels, which falls beyond the 1.4% 1.5 standard-deviation lower-bound.   We remain of the view that EUR/GBP will increasingly struggle to find more bearish momentum now that markets are already pricing in 100bp of Bank of England tightening and the pair is already in undervaluation territory. On the cable side, we expect some stabilisation around 1.2550-1.2600. The UK calendar is empty today.
Euro's Rally Stalls as Focus Turns to Inflation and Data Disappointments

EUR/USD Analysis: False Breakout at Key Level Sets the Tone for Trading Amid US Inflation Data

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 13.06.2023 14:16
In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.0800 and recommended making entry decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. The rise and formation of a false breakout at 1.0800 provided a sell signal for the euro, but there was no significant downward movement. The technical picture remained largely unchanged in the second half of the day.       Everyone awaits the US inflation figures, which will determine the market and the Federal Reserve's actions. If prices drop more than economists' expectations, the euro will have a chance to continue rising against the US dollar, as the central bank is likely to take the first pause in the interest rate hike cycle since 2021. If inflation remains high, we can expect renewed pressure on EUR/USD and a decline in the pair. In that case, I will act on the decline and the false breakout around the support level of 1.0767, formed based on yesterday's close and where the moving averages, favoring buyers, are located.   This will provide an opportunity to enter long positions with the target of another rise towards the level of 1.0800. A breakthrough and top-down test of this range are necessary for buyers, as it will strengthen the demand for the euro, creating an additional entry point for increasing long positions with an update to the next level of 1.0830. The ultimate target remains around 1.0870, where I will take profits. In the case of a decline in EUR/USD and the absence of buyers at 1.0767, the pressure on the euro will return. Therefore, only the formation of a false breakout around the next support level of 1.0734, the weekly low, will provide a signal to buy the euro.   I will open long positions after a rebound from 1.0705, with a 30-35 point upward correction target within the day. To open short positions on EUR/USD, the following is required: Bears managed to defend the market around the resistance level of 1.0800, but there was no significant downward movement. The US inflation data will determine everything. However, considering the bullish market with selling pressure in the second half of the day, it is better to take your time.   I will act only after another unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance level of 1.0800. A false breakout at this level will provide a sell signal capable of pushing the pair back to 1.0767, where the moving averages favoring bulls are located. Consolidation below this range and a reverse test from below to above will lead straight to 1.0734. The ultimate target will be around 1.0705, where I will take profits.       If EUR/USD moves upward during the American session and there are no bears at 1.0800, which is likely to be the case, the demand for the euro will only strengthen, potentially leading to a more powerful upward surge in the pair. In that case, I will postpone short positions until the new resistance level of 1.0830.   Selling can be done there, but only after an unsuccessful consolidation. I will open short positions immediately on a rebound from the maximum of 1.0870, with a 30-35 point downward correction target.   The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for June 6 showed a decrease in long positions and a slight increase in short positions. Despite this, the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates this week can significantly change the market dynamics, so paying much attention to the abovementioned changes may be optional. If the Fed decides to pause the rate hike cycle, the euro will gain significant weight, and the US dollar will weaken.   Along with the European Central Bank's aggressive policy, despite the first signs of a slowdown in underlying inflationary pressure, all of this will lead to a continued rise in risk assets against the US dollar. According to the COT report, non-commercial long positions decreased by 5,757 to 236,060, while non-commercial short positions increased by 1,457 to 77,060. The overall non-commercial net position decreased to 158,224 from 163,054 by the end of the week. The weekly closing price decreased to 1.0702 from 1.0732.   Indicator signals: Moving averages. Trading occurs above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a likelihood of the euro's rise. Note: The author considers the period and prices of the moving averages on the hourly chart (H1), which differs from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily chart (D1).  
Consolidation Continues: The Rise of M&A in Dutch IT Services

Consolidation Continues: The Rise of M&A in Dutch IT Services

ING Economics ING Economics 15.06.2023 11:57
Consolidation in Dutch IT services: Slowing but not stopping M&A activity in the Dutch IT services sector has soared in recent years. Investment opportunities, financing conditions, and an increase in optimal scale have all been key drivers of this trend. As interest rates continue to rise, consolidation will slow but remain resilient.   The Dutch IT services sector is consolidating quickly M&A activity in the Dutch IT services sector has more than doubled in the past six years. This increase was driven by three main developments.   1 Client demand An increase in optimal scale for both small and large companies. Client demand has increased the minimum viable scale for smaller companies and further incentivised larger corporations to become a one-stop shop for their customers.   2 Elevated growth Second, the sector has shown high growth and is characterised by recurring business models which make it an attractive sector to investors.   3 Lower interest rates Third, lower interest rates made it an attractive time for M&A due to relatively low financing costs and high multiples. As financing conditions tighten, M&A activity in the sector will not continue to grow at the same pace as the past years, but consolidation will continue.   The Dutch IT services sector has become increasingly engaged in M&A in recent years. From 2017 to 2022, the number of M&A deals in the sector increased from 290 to 620, resulting in an annual growth rate of roughly 16.5%. The Dutch economy as a whole experienced a 12.5% year-on-year growth rate of M&A in the same period.   Low interest rates caused high multiples, which made for interesting sales – and coupled with the fact that many IT entrepreneurs started their companies in the 1990s, many saw this period as a good time to sell. The increase in M&A activity within the sector is partially driven by lower interest rates, but also by the attractiveness of the sector to investors and increases in required scale. We delve into this in more detail below.   M&A deals in IT services increased significantly over the last 6 years    
Eurozone and German Services PMIs Weaken in June as Markets Await Fed Minutes

Consolidation Trends in the Growing IT Services Sector: A Shift towards Larger Companies and Diversification Strategies

ING Economics ING Economics 15.06.2023 12:50
It's therefore no surprise that the share of large and medium-sized companies in the market is growing at a faster pace than smaller ones. From 2017 until 2022, the number of bigger corporations grew by 67% – nearly three times more than the number of small companies with 10 to 50 employees. This evolution emphasises the consolidation that is taking place in the IT services landscape.   The number of big companies is growing faster than smaller companies   Driving forces Two other factors that are driving consolidation are commoditisation and margin pressure. IT products have been commoditised in recent decades, as large IT services providers such as Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and SAP have gained a bigger share of the pie in some areas (e.g. office software applications and cloud setups). This in turn has incentivised diversification by IT service providers in the mid-market segment. As a result, many of them have moved into areas such as cyber security and off-premises data centres. This can further drive M&A as companies strive to acquire additional skills and technology, and aim to become more efficient and better equipped to serve their clients.     Further consolidation expected, but the pace will slow Overall, there is enough space in the sector for consolidation to continue in the coming years. The IT services sector is dynamic and still relatively young, and new value propositions occur often. It's set to remain in high demand as a vital element in the functioning of the economy, as is that for services such as cyber security, data analysis, software integration and automation. Given increasing interest rates and declining multiples, however, consolidation will continue at a slower pace than in the past six years.
Japan's Economic Outlook: BoJ Policy and Scenarios

EUR/USD: Low Volatility Persists as Market Awaits Directional Catalysts

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.06.2023 09:47
The EUR/USD pair has been going through low volatility and volume. The chart above may suggest that the pair moved quite actively, but in reality, there was only a 53-pip range between the day's high and low. Thus, we have witnessed the third consecutive boring and uninteresting day. Yesterday's only notable report was the number of approved construction permits in the United States. The report turned out slightly better than expected, which helped strengthen the dollar to some extent. But what kind of reaction are we talking about?   A mere 20 pips, which is not interesting at all and does not affect the current technical picture. The pair continues to correct sluggishly downward against an empty calendar. Yesterday, one signal was even formed. During the European trading session, the pair rebounded from the level of 1.0943 and then moved down by the aforementioned 50 pips. However, the price could not reach the target level by the end of the day, and no further signals were formed. Therefore, it was advisable to manually close the sell trade anywhere closer to the evening. It was possible to earn around 30 pips from it, which is not bad considering the current volatility. COT report: On Friday, a new COT report for June 6 was released. In the last 9 months, COT reports have fully corresponded to what is happening on the market. The chart above clearly shows that the net position of big traders (the second indicator) began to grow again in September 2022.   At the same time, the euro resumed an upward movement. The net position of non-commercial traders is bullish. The euro is trading at its highs against the US dollar. I have already mentioned that a fairly high value of the "net position" indicates the end of the uptrend. The first indicator also signals such a possibility as the red and green lines are very far from each other. It often occurs before the end of the trend. The euro tried to start falling a few months ago but there was only a pullback. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions of the "Non-commercial" group of traders decreased by 5,700 and the number of short positions rose by 1,500. The number of long positions is higher than the number of short ones. This is a very large gap. The number of long positions is 59,000 higher than short ones.     The difference is more than three times. The correction has begun. Yet, it may not be a correction but the start of a new downtrend. At this time, it is clear that the pair is likely to resume a downward movement without COT reports. 1H chart of EUR/USD In the 1-hour chart, the pair is trying to start an uptrend but there are no drivers for growth. Last week, there were many events that bolstered its rise. However, in the medium term, there are still no reasons to go long. Technical indicators signal an uptrend.   It would be better not to sell the pair now. We need to wait at least for consolidation below the trend line and the target level. On June 21, trading levels are seen at 1.0581, 1.0658-1.0669, 1.0762, 1.0806, 1.0868, 1.0943, 1.1092, 1.1137, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.0766) and the Kijun-sen line (1.0889) lines. Ichimoku indicator lines can move intraday, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance although no signals are made near these levels.   Signals could be made when the price either breaks or bounces from these extreme levels. Do not forget to place Stop Loss at the breakeven point when the price goes by 15 pips in the right direction. In case of a false breakout, it could save you from possible losses. Several ECB and Fed officials are scheduled to deliver speeches today. However, traders are likely to ignore their statements. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver an important speech in Congress. The main focus is on that.  
US 10-Year Bond Yields: Outlook and Forecasts from Saxo Bank's Senior Fixed Income Strategist

US 10-Year Bond Yields: Outlook and Forecasts from Saxo Bank's Senior Fixed Income Strategist

Althea Spinozzi Althea Spinozzi 21.06.2023 12:06
As the financial markets closely monitor the movements of US 10-year bond yields, investors are eager to gain insights into the future outlook and forecasts from industry experts. In this article, we turn to Althea Spinozzi, Senior Fixed Income Strategist at Saxo Bank, to provide her analysis and predictions regarding the trajectory of US 10-year bond yields. Over the past several months, these bond yields have shown a period of consolidation following a robust two-year uptrend. With this stabilization, the question arises: What can we expect next? Spinozzi's expertise in fixed income instruments offers valuable insights into the current market situation and sheds light on the potential future developments in long-term yield rates. Spinozzi suggests that there may still be limited upside for long-term yields in the US during the summer, contingent upon the Federal Reserve's decisions to hike interest rates while economic growth remains robust. However, she finds it challenging to envision 10-year yields surging to the 4% mark. As the number of rate hikes increases, the probability of the long end of the yield curve starting to decline rises, making a soft landing scenario less likely. FXMAG.COM: For several months, US 10-year bond yields have been consolidating after a 2-year robust uptrend, what's next?   Althea Spinozzi, Senior Fixed Income Strategist: I believe that there is still some limited upside for long term yields in the US during summer only if the Federal Reserve hikes rates while growth remains robust. However, I find it hard to envision ten-year yields to soar to 4%. The more hikes, the higher the probability for the long part of the yield curve to start to fall as a soft landing it ruled out. Also, we have to take into account that the Federal Reserve has not started to actively sell bonds under its balance sheet. We expect discussions surrounding disinvestments in the balance sheet to pick up after summer, as the Fed tries to underpin long term yields in order to avoid a further inversion of the yield curve. The ultimate goal is to continue to tighten the economy, and in order to do that, the fed will need to talk hawkish to support the front part of the yield curve and to begin with an active Quantitative tightening. Overall, in the next few weeks up to the Fed's July meeting we expect ten-year yields  to trade rangebound between a wide range of 3.64% and 3.90%. After summer the path for yields is less certain as it depends on monetary policies and economic activity.
Crypto needs a breather. Crypto Market Gains 3.9% Despite Stock Indexes' Decline; Bitcoin Consolidates as Challenges Persist

Crypto needs a breather. Crypto Market Gains 3.9% Despite Stock Indexes' Decline; Bitcoin Consolidates as Challenges Persist

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.06.2023 10:15
Market picture The crypto market has gained another 3.9% in the past 24 hours, reaching a capitalisation of $1.18 trillion. It has diverged from the stock indices, which have fallen sharply in the previous days due to expectations of a rate hike. Bitcoin has surged more than 15% in two days, revisiting the area of April highs just above 30k. However, this is where the recovery has paused. Bitcoin needs to consolidate a bit before it can resume its ascent. Moreover, there are doubts that the cryptocurrency rally will continue soon, as the stock indices create a challenging environment for risk-sensitive assets across the board. The technical targets for the BTCUSD correction are the 29.3 and 28.5 levels, 76.4% and 61.8% of the latest rally, respectively. If the decline is halted at either of these levels, we could expect new multi-month highs soon.     News background The official launch of the new crypto exchange EDX Markets boosted Bitcoin’s rise. The project is backed by financial giants Citadel Securities, Fidelity Investments and Charles Schwab. The market also reacted positively to BlackRock’s application to the SEC for a spot bitcoin ETF, filed last week. Grayscale Investments’ GBTC bitcoin fund saw its trading volume increase five-fold to $80 million after BlackRock’s filing with the SEC. Following BlackRock, three other major investment firms - WisdomTree, Invesco and Bitwise - also applied for a spot bitcoin ETF. Fed chief Jerome Powell said the regulator considers payment stablecoins as money and therefore has to regulate their issuance. He said it would be a “grave error” to allow large amounts of private funds to be created without oversight. Stablecoins and DeFi projects could be the following targets of the SEC’s crackdown, according to investment bank Berenberg. After suing major exchanges, the SEC may now go after the issuers of the two largest stablecoins, Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC).
Central Bankers and Key Data Awaited: Implications for Equity Markets and Economic Confidence

Central Bankers and Key Data Awaited: Implications for Equity Markets and Economic Confidence

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 28.06.2023 09:00
It’s been a relatively slow start to the week so far but things are likely to pick up with more appearances from prominent central bankers and key data due for release in the coming days. Equity markets are a little higher early in the European session after what has been a tough couple of weeks. Stubborn inflation has investors concerned that there may be a much heavier economic price to pay for restoring price stability which appears to have shaken confidence a little. Not only are more rate hikes being priced in but the prospect of rate cuts this year has become more fantasy than reality. Obviously, some are faring much worse than others, the UK being a prime example, but progress has also been much slower than hoped elsewhere and the likelihood is that getting from 4% to 2%, for example, may prove more challenging again. We need to see some concrete signs of progress or sentiment could suffer much further.   Can bitcoin be propelled higher on ETF excitement? We’ve seen some consolidation in bitcoin in recent days after it hit fresh highs for the year late last week. There’s been no shortage of crypto newsflow but the excitement around an ETF may well be what’s pulled traders back in. Either way, it promises to be an intriguing and potentially volatile second half to the year as we await the outcome of that and the action brought against various exchanges from the SEC. ​  
Plugwalk Joe" Found Guilty: Hacker Convicted for Hijacking Twitter Accounts of Prominent Figures and Attempted Fraud

Plugwalk Joe" Found Guilty: Hacker Convicted for Hijacking Twitter Accounts of Prominent Figures and Attempted Fraud

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.06.2023 09:20
Joseph O'Connor, also known as "Plugwalk Joe", was found guilty of running an advanced hacking campaign that involved hijacking the Twitter accounts of famous people and trying to defraud their followers. Barack Obama, Joe Biden and Elon Musk suffered in the case, for example, through whose accounts cryptocurrencies were extorted.   The perpetrator was sentenced to five years in prison. O'Connor was extradited from Spain to the US in April and pleaded guilty to the charges in May.   These included mass hacking of social media accounts, cybercrime and cyberstalking, among others. He and his associates carried out the attack in early 2020. They contacted some Twitter employees by phone and manipulated them into obtaining login details. This gave the hackers access to the website's internal administration tools.     They used this access to post a Bitcoin scam on over 130 celebrity Twitter accounts. According to the Department of Justice (DoJ), they also sold access to some accounts to third parties. In a separate case, O'Connor and his colleagues successfully used SIM swap attacks. This time to compromise three directors of a cryptocurrency company based in Manhattan.   They used the access they gained to divert digital funds currently worth $1.6 million from their wallets. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has been consolidating the recent gains in a narrow zone with an occasional dip to the level of $1,837 that now will act as the intraday technical support.   The bulls failed to break above the technical resistance located at the level of $1,930 and reversed lower again.The momentum turned into weak and negative after the failed breakout attempt, so now the short-term outlook is looking more bearish. The short-term technical support is seen at the level of $1,837 and $1,830 (100 MA).  
Turbulent Times Ahead: Poland's Central Bank Signals Easing Measures

Economic Calendar and Bitcoin Consolidation: Assessing Trading Lull and Bullish Signals

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 04.07.2023 08:42
We may be seeing a bit of a trading lull at the start of the week with tomorrow’s US bank holiday tempting many into an extended weekend. The economic calendar looks busy but with a large portion being PMI revisions, that doesn’t necessarily equate to an abundance of trading activity. The revisions are often small and don’t really move the needle in terms of expectations for the economy and, at this moment, interest rates. And then there’s the fact that manufacturing being deep in contraction territory is nothing new and what revisions we did see doesn’t really change that. Even as far as prices are concerned, central banks at this stage are far more concerned with what’s happening in services than manufacturing so even that providing welcome disinflationary pressure won’t be enough.   Is the bitcoin consolidation a bullish signal? Bitcoin is continuing to fluctuate largely between $30,000-$31,000 in a manner that may feel encouraging to the crypto community after such a powerful rally a couple of weeks ago. While it hasn’t managed to capitalize any further, that it hasn’t given back a portion of those gains gives the impression that traders think there’s more to come and that this is merely a period of consolidation amid a bigger move. Time will tell whether that turns out to be the case and news flow may have a big part to play in the outcome but what we’ve seen so far is encouraging.  
Turbulent Times Ahead: Poland's Central Bank Signals Easing Measures

EUR/USD Struggles in Flat Market: Assessing Volatility, Interest Rates, and Economic Landscape

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.07.2023 08:59
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair struggled to establish itself above the moving average line, failing to surpass the Murray level of "3/8"-1.0925, resuming its downward trend in the latter half of the day. However, to label this movement as a "decline" would be an overstatement, as the day's total volatility was merely 40 points. As such, the past week better embodies the idea of a "flat" market rather than a trending one. Currently, the currency market is experiencing a tranquil period.   The fundamental and macroeconomic landscapes are intact, but the market appears saturated by them. Time and again, macroeconomic reports are in line with market expectations. Statements by representatives of the Fed and ECB do not offer traders any new or crucial information. The euro continues to maintain a relatively high position but has been static in recent weeks. The subject of interest rates is becoming less pertinent to traders. It's worth noting that when a monetary tightening or easing cycle initiates, the market endeavors to anticipate it. If this happens concurrently in two or more countries, as is usually the case, the market also strives to consider all changes preemptively.     For instance, last year, the Fed began raising rates ahead of the ECB, resulting in an initial surge in the dollar's value (taking geopolitics into account). Subsequently, as inflation in the US began to ease, the euro began to appreciate. It has been on an upward trend for the past ten months, although it has been largely consolidating in the 1.05–1.11 range for the last 5–6 months. Consequently, we do not foresee any significant triggers for a sudden upswing in the value of the euro or the dollar.   The pair will likely continue to consolidate within the outlined range, and it might take considerable time before this process reaches completion. The market has already accounted for 90% of all forthcoming interest rate hikes by the Fed and ECB.   Currently, neither the euro nor the dollar holds a distinct advantage. Many experts have been forecasting a downturn, recession, and deceleration for the US economy, particularly for the labor market. These predictions have been circulating since last year, yet official statistics suggest no signs of a looming recession.   Over the past three quarters, the US economy has grown by at least 2%, significantly more than the growth observed in the European Union or Britain. The labor market continues to demonstrate robust performance month after month, even with the Fed's rate escalating to 5.25%. Unemployment has seen minimal growth, while Nonfarm Payrolls consistently reveal at least 200 thousand new job additions each month.     As such, the Fed can continue its monetary tightening policy as required, especially now that inflation has fallen to 4%. This factor might play against the dollar in the medium term. Since inflation is already approaching the target level, the Federal Reserve will begin to soften monetary policy in 2024. It is unknown when the ECB, dealing with higher inflation, will begin to soften. Nevertheless, inflation in the Eurozone continues to decrease steadily. It initially rose more than in the US. Hence, it needs more time to return to 2%. However, the ECB began raising the rate after the Fed. Thus, everything is in its place. The European regulator may start reducing the rate a few months later than the Fed.   The monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB currently does not imply a strong strengthening of the dollar or the euro. The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair for the last five trading days as of July 5 is 70 points and is characterized as "average." Thus, we expect the pair to move between levels 1.0779 and 1.0915 on Wednesday. A reversal of the Heikin Ashi indicator upwards will indicate a new round of upward movement.
Tokyo Core CPI Falls Short at 2.8%, Powell and Ueda Address Jackson Hole Symposium, USD/JPY Sees Modest Gains

MGCCC Unrest in Korea Continues as Government Aims to Prevent Bank Run

ING Economics ING Economics 07.07.2023 08:41
MGCCC jitters in Korea to continue while the government will try to prevent a bank run MGCCC unrest will continue and get bigger once special inspections begin as default rates and non-performing loans (NPLs) are expected to rise even higher. But the government will lay out a rescue plan so that this issue does not escalate further to shake the financial system.   MG Community Credit Cooperatives is a Non Bank Financial Intermediary in Korea MGCCC began as a credit union back in 1963 when the New Village Movement began and MGCCC has been deeply rooted in the community since then. Asset amount (284 trillion KRW) is about twice bigger than the savings banks and it has a total of more than 1,300 branches. When the PF insolvency problem emerged last year, it was already well known that the weakest link would be local savings banks and community banks, including MGCCC. We also have flagged the risks in our previous notes and argued that the issue would reemerge as tight credit conditions continue. Please see details (Strong headwinds ahead for South Korea's housing market, Corporate debt is a concern for the economy). Given the unique status of MGCCC – established as part of rural development project, MGCCC is not supervised by the FSS. When all mortgage measures were tightened between 2020 to 2022, MGCCC was able to apply looser lending standards than other banks and then it became the last resort for SMEs and self-employed to still take out loans. Also, they are governed by the Ministry of Interior and Safety, their detailed information was not directly reported to financial regulators. Amid the soaring delinquency rate, various irregularities began to emerge, and authorities tightened monitoring and inspection more closely.   Delinquency rates soared due to poor risk management Recently, MGCCC’s default rates soared from 1.9% as end of 2021 to 6% at the end of the second quarter of 2023 and the Ministry decided to conduct a special inspection on 100 out of 1,300 branches in July and August. Once the inspection begins then more bad cases will be revealed and the size of NPL will rise even more.  Given the size of assets and provisions, we think the NPL issue will be sorted out eventually and delinquency rates will come down to a managable level by the end of this year. The Korea Federation of Community Credit Cooperatives is selling 700 billion won worth of bad loans to its subsidiary, loan company MCI while KAMCO will also purchase 500 billion won worth of bad loans from MGCCC. Financial authorities will come out to support work-outs and restructuring if further action is necessary.   Banks' delinquency rates also rising, but lower than the MGCCC's rates   We estimate that MGCCC branches, which are based in areas where unsold units have increased the most would have a high delinquency rate, and the consolidation of branches is expected to continue for the time being.   Weak housing market is the main cause of the MGCCC's high delinquency rates   Bank run is a psychological issue once it gets out of control But the bank run is whole another issue. The government will do its best to calm depositors’ anxiety and prevent them from withdrawing their money. We think the government will put all possible and effective options on the table from the very beginning. The government learned from last year’s experience how things could go wrong if it did not respond in time. The government already has offered tax credits if depositors apply for savings again to those who have terminated savings and is doing a large public campaign to inform them that all assets and liabilities at the closing branch will be transferred to the KFCCC or other branches and deposits up to 50 million won are protected by the KFCCC law.   The BoK watch At this point, we think the market jitters will continue for a while and probably get bigger, but it still won’t escalate into a financial crisis by rescue plans by the government and financial authorities. The Bank of Korea will not respond to the situation with rate actions at next week’s meeting, because it may give the wrong signal to the market, but the BoK will spend a considerable amount of time explaining the situation and calm down the market jitters. We have argued no additional hike from the BoK is expected this year and a rate hike may be possible in the fourth quarter, and the current situation further confirms our view. But the communication of the BoK will become more complicated from now on. Since inflation is remains above the target of 2% and upside risks are still present, the BoK would not want to give a signal of easing too early. But at the same time, the BoK should convince the market that restrictive financial conditions do more good than harm at this point. 
Market Sentiment and Fed Policy Uncertainty: Impact on August Performance

Oil Retreats Despite Positive Momentum, Gold's Rebound in Jeopardy

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 07.07.2023 09:00
Despite positive momentum, oil falls short once more Oil prices are retreating in risk-averse trade today. The ADP report has clearly had a negative impact given it likely means we’re facing another red-hot jobs report tomorrow and the prospect of higher rates for longer. It also came at an opportune time, with the price flirting with the peak from two weeks ago, only to turn south having fallen just shy of surpassing it. That means we’re seen yet another failed new high or low in recent weeks and the gradual consolidation, roughly between $72-$77 is still in play. This time it was close and there was good momentum going into the ADP release but it seems the jobs number was just too big. A repeat performance tomorrow could cement that and undo the efforts of the Saudis and Russians earlier this week in seeking to drive the price higher.   Is gold vulnerable to another big break? Gold’s brief rebound is seemingly over, with the price already struggling around $1,930-$1,940 before ADP delivered a hammer blow to it. The yellow metal is back trading just above $1,900, a level that’s now looking very vulnerable ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report. If it manages to hold above in the interim, a hot report could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Suddenly it will become a question of whether another hike in September is unavoidable against the backdrop of such a hot labour market. These aren’t the only figures that matter but they do significantly weaken the case for another pause.
Market Digest: Fed Minutes and Employment Data Spark Pessimism, Impacting Global Stock Markets and Currency Pairs

Market Digest: Fed Minutes and Employment Data Spark Pessimism, Impacting Global Stock Markets and Currency Pairs

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 10.07.2023 12:01
Global stock markets edge lower amid pessimism sparked by the latest Fed minutes and contrasting employment figures from ADP and the US Department of Labor. Obviously, investors continue to be stirred up by the potential rate hikes by global central banks, primarily the Federal Reserve. The recent private sector employment data from the ADP, which indicated strong growth in new jobs, primarily in the services sector, increased the chances of seeing an increase in rates. However, the situation became uncertain after the US Department of Labor published its official data on the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector. Reportedly, employment rose by 209,000, lower than the 225,000 the previous month. Still, this figure remains above the threshold of 200,000, indicating an overall continuing positive pace of employment growth, but with the risk of a significant fall in the future. The currency and commodities markets reacted to the news rather coolly, effectively confirming the theory that the stabilization of US inflation or the resumption of its growth could force the Fed to continue raising interest rates. Latest inflation data from China, Germany, and the US lies ahead, but more focus will be given to the consumer price index in the US. Forecast says the overall figure will fall to 3.1% y/y, but increase by 0.3% m/m. Such figures will boost risk appetite, accompanied by a weakening of dollar as treasury yields fall. The chances of seeing further rate hikes will drop as well.     EUR/USD The pair hit 1.0970. Surpassing this level amid a decrease in US inflation will push the quote 1.1100.   GBP/USD The pair trades at 1.2835. A consolidation above it, which could be spurred by falling US inflation and steady expectations of rate hikes from the Bank of England due to high inflation, may bring the quote to 1.2985.  
Oil Prices Show Resilience Despite Setbacks, Gold Holds Above $1,900 Ahead of US Jobs Report

Oil Prices Show Resilience Despite Setbacks, Gold Holds Above $1,900 Ahead of US Jobs Report

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 10.07.2023 12:42
Oil continues higher despite setbacks this week Could we finally be about to see a breakout in oil prices after two months of consolidation? The rally over the last week or so from the range lows has been quite strong and backed by momentum – as well as fresh cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia – and despite being pushed back from the recent highs over the last couple of days, it’s continued to drive higher in a way that could see the upper boundary buckle. Yesterday’s ADP number appeared to wipe out any momentum that had built up but a rally late in the day saw it end the session in the green and come within a whisker of 21 June peak. A failure to overcome that could further confirm the continuation of the gradual consolidation we’ve seen over the last couple of months, whereas a break above could be a very bullish signal.   Can gold hold onto $1,900 after the US jobs report? Gold came under pressure in the aftermath of yesterday’s ADP report but managed to hold above $1,900 and even recoup some of its losses. It’s trading marginally higher today but whether it will be able to hold onto those gains, and remain above $1,900, will probably depend on what kind of jobs report we get. Can it cling on if we get another red-hot report? Another strong report is looking increasingly likely on the back of yesterday’s ADP number, although as we’ve seen in the past it isn’t always that reliable a barometer. A cooler report could propel it higher given expectations have now undoubtedly risen. It’s still almost 8% from its highs and a cooler report could offer the opportunity for a corrective move which we’ve barely seen so far.  
GBP/USD Analysis: GBP Maintains Growth Momentum, Market Awaits US Inflation Report

GBP/USD Analysis: GBP Maintains Growth Momentum, Market Awaits US Inflation Report

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 12.07.2023 13:47
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday secured above the next corrective level of 127.2% (1.2917). Thus, the growth process can continue toward the next corrective level of 161.8% (1.3007). A level of 1.3000 can be considered a psychological mark, and such levels usually attract price. In other words, traders may subconsciously strive for such marks. The pair's consolidation below the level of 1.2917 will work in favor of the US dollar, and some fall toward the level of 1.2847. The waves are now painting us the same picture as with the euro.   Each peak of the next wave is higher than the previous one, and each low - is higher than the previous one. Thus, there are no prerequisites for a change in traders' sentiment to "bearish." However, the most important report of this week will be released today, so the market reaction can be strong and unexpected. The pound rose in the first two days of the week, although the grounds for purchases were quite dubious. For example, yesterday's unemployment reports in the UK showed a deterioration, and the pound could show a decline.   But traders have already focused on US inflation, which could drop to 3.1% in June. This value has already been factored in, but what if the report shows a different result? In this case, we are waiting for a move that will depend on the side of the deviation from the forecast. If the consumer price index turns out to be above 3.1%, then a decline in the pair can be expected. If below - new growth. The level of 1.3000 can be worked out a bit later, not today. Today the probability of a decline is higher. However, this does not mean traders' sentiment will change to "bearish."   On the 4-hour chart, the pair has rebounded from the level of 1.2745 and consolidated above the level of 1.2860. Thus, the growth of quotes can continue towards the next level of 1.3044. A "bearish" divergence is brewing at the CCI indicator, which may indicate the beginning of forming a "bearish" wave on the hourly chart. There are no sell signals now, and the pound ignores the news background, which should have led to its decline.   Commitments of Traders (COT) Report: During the previous reporting week, there was a shift in the "Non-commercial" traders' sentiment, which turned somewhat less "bullish." The count of long contracts held by speculators fell by 7,921 units, while the short contracts saw a decrease of 6,192. Despite this, the predominant sentiment among the major players remains distinctly "bullish," with a marked difference between long and short contracts: 96 thousand to 46 thousand. The pound has a favorable outlook for further growth, particularly as the current news environment lends it more support than the dollar. Nevertheless, anticipating a strong surge in the value of the pound sterling is increasingly challenging. The market is overlooking several factors that favor the dollar, and expectations of continual interest rate increases from the Bank of England primarily drive the pound's growth.     Here's the upcoming news schedule for the US and UK: US - Consumer Price Index (CPI) (12:30 UTC). US - "Beige Book" (18:00 UTC).   For Wednesday, the economic event calendar includes one report and one event. The "Beige Book," an aggregation of economic reports from various US regions, doesn't generally significantly influence the market. However, the inflation report may substantially sway traders' sentiments. As for the GBP/USD forecast and trading advice: Minimal selling of the pound during the "bullish" trend is possible. For instance, a rebound from the 1.3007 mark on the hourly chart with a target of 1.2917 or a closure below the 1.2917 level aiming for 1.2847 could be considered. New purchases could be advisable upon a rebound from the 1.2917 level on the hourly chart, aiming for 1.3007. However, movements in the latter half of the day may be considerable and vary in direction.  
Alphabet Reports Strong Q2 2023 Results with Growth in Advertising and Cloud Services - 24.07.2023

FX Daily: Dollar Risk Premium Consolidating Amid Chinese Data Disappointment

ING Economics ING Economics 18.07.2023 11:57
FX Daily: Dollar risk premium consolidating Chinese data disappointment was not enough to trigger a broad-based rebound in the dollar, which continues to show some disinflation risk premium (i.e. short-term undervaluation). We’ll monitor some US releases including retail sales today, on an otherwise very quiet day data-wise. In Australia, RBA minutes reiterated openness to another hike.   USD: No real benefit from China's data disappointment This week had started with the question of whether the dollar could still suffer from the residual effect of the disinflation surprise amid a quiet data calendar and with the FOMC meeting (26 July) drawing closer. Yesterday’s price action in FX saw a relatively sanguine reaction to the disappointing growth numbers out of China: the highly exposed AUD and NZD declined, but EUR/USD was unchanged despite European stocks’ underperformance. The lack of larger-scale dollar gains on the back of deteriorating Chinese sentiment indicates that markets remain reluctant to build back USD long positions for now. That must be weighed – however – with indications that the dollar is undervalued in the short-term vs some major currencies (excluding JPY): it may be a matter of time, or a simple lack of catalyst, to see some convergence of the dollar with its short-term drivers. As discussed in yesterday’s FX Daily, we may well see the dollar recover a bit of ground, although the mis-valuation gap can also be closed by a move in other market drivers. Today, the market’s focus will be on June’s retail sales figures out of the US (expected to be quite strong), as well as industrial production, some housing data and TIC flows. These releases normally do not trigger wide market reactions by themselves, although a combined positive data flow today could at least help keep the dollar losses capped for now.  
Escalating Russia-Ukraine Tensions Amplify Oil Supply Risks: The Commodities Feed

FX Daily: Dollar Bears Urged to Be Patient as Dollar Reconnects with Rate Differentials

ING Economics ING Economics 24.07.2023 09:26
FX Daily: Dollar bears being asked for patience Quiet summer markets are seeing dollar pairs consolidate in new, slightly lower ranges. It will be another quiet session today ahead of a big week for G3 central bank meetings. Dollar bears may find some reassurance from emerging markets, where the PBoC is trying to limit USD/CNY gains and the South African rand is holding up despite the lack of a rate hike.   USD: Dollar reconnects with short-term rate differentials As my colleague Francesco Pesole has been writing this week, the dollar has made a modest comeback as both US yields adjust higher and short-term rate spreads stay in the dollar's favour. In fact, one could argue that the dollar should even be a little higher given that two-year US yields have retraced about 50% of their drop in the first half of July and the DXY has only retraced one-third of its losses. Price action over the past week probably shows that a switch to the disinflation trade will not be easy and will require a constant drip feed of supporting evidence – be it softer price or weaker activity data. Yesterday's drop in US initial claims clearly did not help here. Casting around the world in quiet FX markets we see the People's Bank of China (PBoC) continuing to fight a weaker renminbi by printing lower USD/CNY fixings than model-based estimates suggest. Despite credible calls for a lower renminbi to support growth and battle deflation, it seems Chinese policymakers prefer to keep renminbi losses contained and prevent a 'sell China' mentality building. The PBoC's battle against a stronger USD/CNY is a slight dollar negative in quiet summer markets – especially should it extend to outright dollar sales. Today's session should be a quiet one as the market prepares for US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan (BoJ) meetings next week. Regarding the BoJ, expectations of any Yield Curve Control policy tweak seem very low (perhaps too low) given that the 30-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield is drifting lower and the forward market prices 10-year JGB yields at 50bp in three months and at only 55bp in six months. These 10-year yields should be priced a lot higher were the market expecting a policy change. USD/JPY may well drift to the 141.15/142.00 area before next Friday's BoJ meeting.
Escalating Russia-Ukraine Tensions Amplify Oil Supply Risks: The Commodities Feed

FX Daily: Dollar Bears Urged to Be Patient as Dollar Reconnects with Rate Differentials - 24.07.2023

ING Economics ING Economics 24.07.2023 09:26
FX Daily: Dollar bears being asked for patience Quiet summer markets are seeing dollar pairs consolidate in new, slightly lower ranges. It will be another quiet session today ahead of a big week for G3 central bank meetings. Dollar bears may find some reassurance from emerging markets, where the PBoC is trying to limit USD/CNY gains and the South African rand is holding up despite the lack of a rate hike.   USD: Dollar reconnects with short-term rate differentials As my colleague Francesco Pesole has been writing this week, the dollar has made a modest comeback as both US yields adjust higher and short-term rate spreads stay in the dollar's favour. In fact, one could argue that the dollar should even be a little higher given that two-year US yields have retraced about 50% of their drop in the first half of July and the DXY has only retraced one-third of its losses. Price action over the past week probably shows that a switch to the disinflation trade will not be easy and will require a constant drip feed of supporting evidence – be it softer price or weaker activity data. Yesterday's drop in US initial claims clearly did not help here. Casting around the world in quiet FX markets we see the People's Bank of China (PBoC) continuing to fight a weaker renminbi by printing lower USD/CNY fixings than model-based estimates suggest. Despite credible calls for a lower renminbi to support growth and battle deflation, it seems Chinese policymakers prefer to keep renminbi losses contained and prevent a 'sell China' mentality building. The PBoC's battle against a stronger USD/CNY is a slight dollar negative in quiet summer markets – especially should it extend to outright dollar sales. Today's session should be a quiet one as the market prepares for US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan (BoJ) meetings next week. Regarding the BoJ, expectations of any Yield Curve Control policy tweak seem very low (perhaps too low) given that the 30-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield is drifting lower and the forward market prices 10-year JGB yields at 50bp in three months and at only 55bp in six months. These 10-year yields should be priced a lot higher were the market expecting a policy change. USD/JPY may well drift to the 141.15/142.00 area before next Friday's BoJ meeting.
Australian Employment Surprises with 64,900 New Jobs in August, Boosting AUD, While AUDUSD Charts Show Potential for Double Bottom

EUR/USD Analysis: ECB Rate Hike Sparks Euro's Sharp Decline as US GDP Report Adds to Selling Pressure

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.07.2023 15:52
EUR/USD The euro is once again (after 20 days) disrupting the market. The European Central Bank raised its rate by 0.25% yesterday, and ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that this increase may be the last one (similar to the Federal Reserve) in the current tightening cycle. The euro lost 0.95% or 108 pips.   Media reports that such a sharp decline was caused by the US Q2 GDP report, which showed that the economy expanded by 2.4% against the expected 1.8%. In addition, durable goods orders in June added 4.7% (forecast was 1.0%). Only the S&P 500 fell by 0.64%, reflecting expectations of a recession in the US and an expansion in the yield curve inversion in the government bond market.     The volume of yesterday's trades was the largest in the last 4 months, which means there is still potential for further decline. The 1.0924 level is an important support on the daily chart, which the MACD line is approaching. Consolidating below it will initiate a new downtrend in the medium-term. The Marlin oscillator has settled in the negative area. If the euro does not fall below 1.0924, it may rise again, even against unfavorable grounds. We are expecting a significant reversal of the euro that is in sync with the stock market decline (in September).     On the four-hour chart, the situation is bearish: the price is developing below both indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator has settled in the downtrend territory. Consolidating below yesterday's low at 1.0966 opens up the target at 1.0924. Some kind of price convergence with the oscillator supports the euro's consolidation in the 1.0966-1.1012 range  
German Ifo Index Continues to Decline in September, Confirming Economic Stagnation

GBP/USD Analysis and Trading Signals: Short-Term and Hourly Perspectives

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 07.08.2023 10:25
Analysis of GBP/USD 5M   On Friday, the pound sterling corrected higher after the release of US data. There were three reports, two of which were simply ignored by the market. The decline in the unemployment rate did not save the US dollar from falling, as the market only considered the NonFarm Payrolls, which came in lower than forecast, and the value of the previous month got revised lower.   Therefore, there were grounds for the dollar to fall on Friday. In the UK, there were no important reports or events. The US dollar fell by approximately 105 pips from the daily lows, but if we look at the opening and closing prices of the day, its losses were only 40 pips, and at that moment, they were almost negated. We believe that the pound has no grounds to resume the uptrend.   The trading signals for the pound were almost identical to those for the euro. Traders could use the bounce from the level of 1.2693 to open long positions. Subsequently, the pair broke through the area of 1.2746-1.2762, and it remained above it until the end of the trading session. As a result, the long position could be closed anywhere above the mentioned area, and the profit amounted to at least 70 pips.   COT report: According to the latest report, the non-commercial group of traders closed 13,300 long positions and 3,800 short ones. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders fell by almost 10,000 positions in a week. But in general, it is still rising. The net position has been steadily growing over the past 10 months as well as the pound sterling. Now, the net position has advanced markedly. This is why the pair will hardly maintain its bullish momentum. I believe that a long and protracted downward movement should begin. COT reports signal a slight growth of the British currency but it will not be able to rise in the long term.   There are no drivers for opening new long positions and not many technical signals for short positions either. The British currency has already grown by a total of 2,800 pips, from its absolute lows reached last year, which is a significant increase. Without a downward correction, the continuation of the uptrend will be illogical. However, there has been no logic in the pair's movements for quite some time. The market perceives the fundamental background one-sidedly, ignoring any data in favor of the dollar. The Non-commercial group of traders has opened 92,100 long positions and 42,600 short ones. I remain skeptical about the long-term growth of the pound sterling but speculators continue to buy and the pair continues to rise.   Analysis of GBP/USD 1H     On the 1H chart, the pound/dollar pair has started to correct, but has not yet broken the downtrend. Consolidation below the critical line may signal a resumption of the downward movement. We believe that there are no grounds for the sterling's growth, so we expect the decline to resume. Of course, that doesn't mean that the pair will fall every day. Periods of consolidation, flat movements, and corrections are possible. On August 7, traders should pay attention to the following key levels: 1.2520, 1.2598-1.2605, 1.2693, 1.2762, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987, 1.3050. The Senkou Span B (1.2868) and Kijun-sen (1.2734) lines can also be sources of signals, e.g. rebounds and breakout of these levels and lines. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss orders at the breakeven level when the price moves in the right direction by 20 pips. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are support and resistance levels that can be used to lock in profits. On Monday, there are no important events or reports lined up in the UK and the US, except for perhaps Michelle Bowman's speech. However, it's a bit of a stretch to consider this event important. Therefore, we expect calm movements akin to a flat.   Description of the chart: Support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which the trend may end. They do not provide trading signals; The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, plotted to the 1H timeframe from the 4H one. They provide trading signals; Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals; Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns; Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size for each category of traders; Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the net position size for the Non-commercial group.  
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FX Daily: Currencies Gradually Detach from Bond Dynamics Amidst Dollar's Resilience

ING Economics ING Economics 08.08.2023 09:11
FX Daily: Currencies starting to detach from bond dynamics Volatility in long-dated sovereign bonds has remained elevated, but that has almost only been mirrored in a weaker yen in FX since the start of the week. The currency market is starting to detach from short-term bond swings, but the dollar’s newfound resilience could still consolidate into Thursday’s US inflation numbers.   USD: Wait and see It’s been a slow start to the week in the currency market, with the dollar being mixed but generally supported yesterday and in today’s Asian session. We continue to observe rather elevated volatility in bond markets, with long-dated Treasury yields rising again: unsurprisingly, the only notable move in FX since the weekend has been another leg higher in USD/JPY. With the Bank of Japan normalisation still looking too remote to temper bearish pressure on the yen, USD/JPY is the most exposed G10 pair to the ongoing bond market instability, especially given some signs of resilience in US equities, which limited losses in high-beta currencies. The US data calendar only includes second-tier releases until Thursday’s CPI figures. Today, the key highlights are the NFIB Small Business Confidence Optimism Index – which is expected to rise very marginally from June – trade balance figures from June, and final wholesale inventory numbers. It will be interesting to hear what FOMC members Patrick Harker and Thomas Barkin say about the economy in two separate speeches today, especially following last week’s slightly weaker-than-expected headline payroll figures. With the exception of the yen, it appears that most G10 currencies are losing their direct exposure to swings in US bond yields. At this stage, it would probably take a larger swing in yields to cause a substantial spill-over into FX than it did before the US credit downgrade by Fitch. Still, we expect some consolidation of the dollar around current levels into Thursday’s inflation numbers.
Italy Eases Windfall Tax Impact Amid China's Deflation, Focus on US Inflation Report

Italy Eases Windfall Tax Impact Amid China's Deflation, Focus on US Inflation Report

Ed Moya Ed Moya 10.08.2023 09:31
Italy cushions windfall tax blow China deflation to spark stimulus efforts US five-year inflation breakeven nears peak set in April 2022 Yesterday, the euro took a big hit after Italian Premier Meloni’s cabinet approved a 40% levy on lenders’ extra profits.  Today was all about damage control as the Italian government had to tweak and ease up this crushing windfall tax on banks. The initial tax plan crushed the European banking sector, but that might see some relief now that the finance ministry clarified that the levy won’t surpass 0.1% of a firm’s assets and that banks who have delivered increased interest rates to depositors won’t be greatly impacted. The euro was steadying earlier, but a recovery of yesterday’s losses seems unlikely. The FX market appears to be struggling for major moves ahead of the US inflation report and that is somewhat surprising considering the deflationary numbers that came from China last night.  China saw both consumer and producer prices decline together for the first time since early in the pandemic.  China’s producer prices have been steadily dropping for 10th consecutive months, which should support disinflation hopes from most of the advanced economies.  China’s core CPI is still in positive territory, but that shouldn’t prevent officials from being a little bit more aggressive with stimulus. Even with China’s falling prices, some investors are still not yet confident that US inflation will come all the way down to the Fed’s target.  One of the long-term inflation gauges, the US five-year inflation breakeven remains elevated and close to the high made in April 2022.  Tomorrow’s inflation report could send this long-term measure above 2.5% or cool the steady rally that took hold since June.       Leading up to the US CPI report, EUR/USD has been consolidating between the 1.0920 and 1.1040 levels. Any significant upside surprises could support a stronger dollar, which could trigger a tentative break down below 1.0940 short-term support level.  An in-line inflation report could see the current trading range hold up, while a cooler-than-expected might support a rally towards the 1.1100 handle.      
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Dollar's Strength: A Consequence of Limited Alternatives

ING Economics ING Economics 11.08.2023 10:44
FX Daily: Dollar benefits from a lack of alternatives The US remains on an encouraging disinflation track, but the dollar is not turning lower. This is, in our view, due to a lack of attractive alternatives given warning growth signals in other parts of the world (such as the eurozone and China). Evidence of a US economic slowdown is needed to bring USD substantially lower.   USD: Disinflation not enough for the bears July’s US inflation numbers released yesterday were largely in line with expectations, reassuring markets that there are no setbacks in the disinflationary process for now. Core inflation inched lower from 4.8% to 4.7%, while the headline rate suffered a rebound (from 3.0% to 3.2%) due to a reduced base effect compared to previous months, which was still smaller than the consensus of 3.3%. With the exception of resilience in housing prices, price pressures clearly abated across all components. All in all, the US report offered reasons for the Fed and for risk assets to cheer, as the chance of another rate hike declined further. Equities rallied and the US yield curve re-steepened: the dollar should have dropped across the board in this scenario. However, the post-CPI picture in FX was actually more mixed. This was a testament to how currencies are not uniquely driven by US news at the moment. The Japanese yen drop was not a surprise, given abating bond and FX volatility, equity outperformance and carry-trade revamp, but FX markets seemed lightly impacted by CPI figures and the subsequent risk-on environment, as many high-beta currencies failed to hang on to gains. From a dollar point of view, we think the recent price action denotes a reluctance to rotate away from the greenback given the emergence of concerning stories in other parts of the world. This is not to say that the activity outlook in the US is particularly bright – jobless claims touched a one-month high yesterday, and the outlook remains very vulnerable to deteriorated credit dynamics – but if economic slowdown alarms are flashing yellow in Washington, they are flashing amber in Frankfurt and Beijing. Chinese real estate developer Garden reported a record net loss of up to $7.6bn during the first half of the year yesterday, at a time when China’s officials are trying to calm investors’ nerves about another potential property crisis. Back to the US, PPI and the University of Michigan inflation expectation figures out today will clarify how far the disinflation story has gone in July, but we still sense a substantial dollar decline is not on the cards for the moment, or at least until compelling evidence of slowing US activity makes the prospect of Fed cuts less remote. DXY may consolidate above 102.00 over the next few days.
Kiwi Faces Depreciation Pressure: RBNZ Expected to Hold Rates Amidst Downward Momentum

Kiwi Faces Depreciation Pressure: RBNZ Expected to Hold Rates Amidst Downward Momentum

Kelvin Wong Kelvin Wong 16.08.2023 11:37
The Kiwi is the worst-performing currency among the majors where it depreciated by -7.1% against the USD on a rolling one-month basis. RBNZ Is expected to maintain its OCR at 5.50% since the last interest hike in May. Watch the key medium-term support of 0.5900/5860 where the downside momentum of NZD/USD may start to pause after declining for six months. New Zealand central bank, RBNZ will announce its latest monetary policy decision today at 0200 GMT followed by a press conference one hour later. The consensus is calling for another round of pause to its interest rate hiking cycle to maintain the official cash rate (OCR) at 5.50% since its last 25 basis points (bps) hike that was implemented in May. So far, the RNBZ has raised borrowing costs by a total of 525 bps since October 2021. Also, the RBNZ will release their latest OCR track today which likely shows they will remain on hold into 2024 and the in the previous May meeting, the forecasted path of the OCR was to remain at 5.50% until August 2024 when the first interest rate cut would be enacted. So far, the Kiwi has come under downside pressure in the past month where it depreciated by -7.10% against the USD, making it the worst-performing currency among the majors based on a rolling one-month basis. The current bout of weakness seen in the NZD/USD has been primarily driven by weak external demand and jitters over China’s ongoing deflationary risk.   Approaching the lower boundary of medium-term “Expanding Wedge”       Fig 1:  NZD/USD medium-term trend as of 16 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Since its 2 February 2023 high of 0.6538, the price actions of NZD/USD have been oscillating within a medium-term “Expanding Wedge” configuration. Its recent 4-week of impulsive minor down move sequence has it towards key medium-term support of 0.5900/5860 (the lower boundary of the “Expanding Wedge”, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior medium-term up move from 13 October 2022 low to 2 February 2023 high & 1.00 Fibonacci extension from of the on-going medium-term down move from 2 February 2023 high).   Short-term downside momentum remains intact Fig 2:  NZD/USD minor short-term trend as of 16 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Short-term price actions of the NZD/USD have drifted lower within a minor descending channel in place since the 14 July 2023 high. Watch the 0.5995 key short-term pivotal resistance to maintain the bearish bias for the next supports to come in at 0.5900 and 0.5860 before price actions start to shape a potential consolidation after six months of down move. However, a clearance above 0.5995 negates the bearish tone to expose the next intermediate resistance at 0.6050 (also the upper boundary of the minor descending channel).  
Analyzing Tuesday's GBP/USD Trades: Signals, Levels, and Trading Strategies

Analyzing Tuesday's GBP/USD Trades: Signals, Levels, and Trading Strategies

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.08.2023 13:43
Yesterday, the pound/dollar pair formed several entry signals. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what actually happened. In my morning forecast, I turned your attention to the level of 1.2725 and recommended making decisions with this level in focus. Growth and a false breakout at this mark produced a sell signal. As a result, the pair fell by more than 40 pips. In the afternoon, a false breakout at 1.2725 did not provide a good result.     For long positions on GBP/USD: Yesterday's data on the sharp rise in average earnings in the UK only provided temporary support for the pound, afterwards, the pair was under pressure again. Today's UK inflation report turned out to be worse than economists' forecasts, which, as you can see on the chart, is already limiting the GBP/USD decline prospects as high price pressure, especially in the core index, persists. For this reason, long positions will be interesting today, but it is best to act on the downside all the way from the same support level at 1.2688, which is in line with the bullish moving averages. A false breakout on this mark will confirm the presence of big players in the market, which will produce a good buy signal and will lead to a breakout to the resistance at 1.2722. A breakout and consolidation above this range will give the bulls a boost, preserving the chances of building a correction with the next target at 1.2749 - yesterday's high. A more distant target will be 1.2781 where I will be taking profits.   If GBP/USD falls and there are no bulls at 1.2688, the pound will be under pressure. In this case, only the protection of 1.2658, as well as a false breakout on this mark, will create new entry points into long positions. You could buy GBP/USD at a bounce from 1.2623, keeping in mind an upward intraday correction of 30-35 pips. For short positions on GBP/USD: The pair is trading within the sideways channel, so bears will become more active, especially at its upper boundaries. An unsuccessful consolidation above 1.2722, the new intermediate resistance level, will produce a sell signal with a prospect of falling to 1.2688. A breakout of this level and its upward retest would significantly dent the bulls' positions, offering a chance for a more substantial decline towards the low of 1.2658. A more distant target will be the month's low at 1.2623 - the bulls' last hope. If GBP/USD grows and there is no activity at 1.2722, which can happen given the inflation report, bulls will not regain full control of the pair, but they will get the chance to start an upward correction towards 1.2749. Only a false breakout at this mark would provide an entry point for going short. If there is no downward movement there, I would sell the pound right on a rebound from 1.2781, hoping for an intraday correction of 30-35 pips.     COT report: The Commitments of Traders (COT) report for August 8th recorded a decline in both long and short positions. Traders have been closing their positions ahead of important UK GDP data, realizing that the Bank of England would continue to raise interest rates, no matter the cost. Good data on the British economy allowed the market to maintain balance, preventing a significant sell-off of the British pound last week, which was triggered by another increase in inflation in the US. However, the optimal strategy is to buy the pound on dips, as the difference in the policies of the central banks will affect the prospects of the US dollar, putting pressure on it. The latest COT report indicates that long positions of the non-commercial group of traders have decreased by 8,936 to 93,239, while short positions fell by 6,394 to 36,219. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 185. The weekly closing price dropped to 1.2749 compared to the prior value of 1.2775.  
Tuesday's EUR/USD Analysis: Chaotic Movements on 30M Chart

Tuesday's EUR/USD Analysis: Chaotic Movements on 30M Chart

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.08.2023 13:52
Analyzing Tuesday's trades: EUR/USD on 30M chart   On Tuesday, EUR/USD was quite chaotic. There was a small upward-sloping line, but even on the 30-minute chart, it's easy to see how often the pair changed direction. In addition to this, the price closed above the descending trendline, and several reports were published in the EU and US, which, although they were not marked as "important," still had some impact on the pair's movement.   Volatility was 56 points, which is very low. As a result, it was a low-volatility day, with chaotic movements, a ton of signals, and mixed economic reports.   The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the EU and Germany turned out to be slightly better than expected. The US retail sales report was also better than expected. There was a slight market reaction, but it only added confusion to the intraday movements. We can't even conclude that an upward correction has started - the trend line was too weak.   EUR/USD on 5M chart   Several trading signals were formed on the 5-minute chart. Traders could gain 15 pips on the first buy signal around the 1.0904 level. It should have been closed when the price closed below the 1.0936 level. Based on this sell signal, short positions should have been opened, and subsequently, the 1.0904 level was retested, where shorts should have been closed. A bounce from this level – new longs and another 15 pips of profit. Later on, the pair started to "dance" around the 1.0936 level, forming false signals. They could have resulted in losses, but not all of them needed to be executed. Any two false signals around the same level "blocked" the execution of all subsequent ones. Therefore, the day still ended in profit, albeit a small one.   Trading tips on Wednesday: On the 30M chart, the pair is trading with a downward tendency, and may continue to fall, which, in our opinion, is still the most justified and logical course of events. We don't see any macroeconomic background that would be capable of changing market sentiment this week. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.0761, 1.0835, 1.0871, 1.0901-1.0904, 1.0936, 1.0971-1.0981, 1.1011, 1.1043, 1.1091, 1.1132-1.1145, 1.1184, 1.1241. A stop loss can be set at a breakeven point as soon as the price moves 15 pips in the right direction. On Wednesday, the EU will publish reports on its Q2 GDP in the second estimate, as well as industrial production. This may be sufficient enough to stir some market reaction or none at all.   Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines. Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.  
GBP Outlook: Moderate Strength Amid Light Calendar

GBP/USD Correction and Rhetoric Outlook: ECB vs. Fed

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.08.2023 13:39
  The GBP/USD currency pair exhibited no noteworthy movements on Friday. The price continues to correct both in the global and local senses. After a double rebound from the level of 1.2634, the pair is aiming for the upper boundary of the sideways channel, i.e., the level of 1.2787. This level has already been reached, so a new round of downward movement within the same channel may begin soon. Since we are currently in a range, trading the pair is inconvenient and inadvisable. While we mentioned that it's better to trade the euro on higher timeframes, in the case of the pound, trading on higher timeframes is not profitable since the pair is not showing any trend movement. Overall, the situation could be more pleasant. A consolidation above the level of 1.2787 could trigger a continuation of the upward correction, which will not break the established concept. Let us remind you that the concept involves a prolonged decline in the British currency. Corrections are integral to any trend, so a slight upward move would not hurt. However, there is still a risk of resuming an illogical and unjustified upward trend that was difficult to explain several months ago. On the 24-hour timeframe, we still do not see a breakthrough of the Ichimoku cloud, so even after the last month's decline, the upward trend has not changed to a downward one. There was virtually no macroeconomic data on Friday, and there will be none today. Volatility for the pound did not exceed 100 points last week, and any value below this level is considered "average." The pound is certainly moving more actively than the euro (which is historically the case), but the range spoils everything.   ECB rhetoric is more important than the Fed This week, there will be even fewer significant events than last week. What can we highlight? Business activity indices? The Jackson Hole symposium, which only starts on Friday? A few speeches by Fed representatives? The U.S. durable goods orders report? All of these are interesting, but what matters is the market's reaction to them. All business activity indices and the durable goods orders report could only provoke a reaction if the actual values differ significantly from the forecasts. Fed representatives' speeches – we observe quite a few of these almost every week. The Fed's policy is currently clear and understood, and it is unlikely that Bowman or Gulsbee will report anything extremely important.   The market does not believe in a rate hike in September or the end of the tightening cycle. A few months ago, Jerome Powell indicated that the regulator was shifting to a "one hike every two meetings" approach, so there should be a pause in September. However, the latest inflation report, showing an acceleration in inflation, suggests we may see at least one more rate hike. And if the August report also shows an acceleration, tightening may occur as early as September. More questions are now being posed to the ECB, for which a brief pause is also expected. If signals start coming from the ECB about even slower tightening, it may be a reason for the European currency to accelerate its decline against the dollar.     The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 84 points. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." Therefore, on Monday, August 21, we expect movement within the range limited by levels 1.2646 and 1.2816. A downward reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator will signal a downward spiral within the lateral channel.   The nearest support levels: S1 – 1.2726 S2 – 1.2695 S3 – 1.2665   The nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.2756 R2 – 1.2787 R3 – 1.2817   Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair in the 4-hour timeframe has secured itself above the moving average, but we are still in a flat market overall. You can trade now based on rebounds from the upper (1.2787) or lower (1.2634) boundaries of the sideways channel, but reversals may occur without reaching them. The moving average may be crossed very often, but it does not signify a change in trend.   Explanations of illustrations: Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. If both are directed in one direction, the trend is strong. Moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and the direction to trade now. Murrey levels - target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility levels (red lines) - the probable price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators. CCI indicator - its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) means that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.  
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Gold Price Analysis: Technical Outlook and Potential Scenarios

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.08.2023 14:52
Early in the European session, gold (XAU/USD) is trading around 1,894.45, above the 21 SMA, and below the 200 EMA located at 1,904. On the H1 chart, we can see that gold broke the bearish trend channel formed since August 8 and it is expected to consolidate above 1/8 Murray located at 1,890 in the next few hours.     If this scenario occurs, then the instrument could reach the 200 EMA located at 1,904 or go up to 2/8 Murray located at 1,906. 10-year US Treasury yields are trading above 4.3% as investors expect the Fed to continue raising interest rates in September 2023. Bonds and gold are inversely correlated. Since these are overbought, a fall in bonds is expected in the next few days, so it will be seen as an opportunity to buy gold.   We can see that gold is overbought according to the 1-hour chart. Hence, we could expect a technical correction to occur in the next few hours towards the 1,888 area and then from there, a technical rebound could follow.   In case the XAU/USD pair continues to rise, we could expect it to reach 1,906. We could use this opportunity to sell. The eagle indicator is showing an overbought signal. We expect gold to reach the 1,888 level and this will give us an opportunity to buy at a low price. Conversely, a sharp break below the low reached so far around 1,885, could be seen as a continuation of the downward movement. Therefore, the instrument could reach 1,875 and finally 1,867.  
EUR/USD Movement Analysis: False Breakthrough and Volatility Ahead of Powell's Speech

EUR/USD Movement Analysis: False Breakthrough and Volatility Ahead of Powell's Speech

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 24.08.2023 12:54
EUR/USD Yesterday, the euro broke through the key support level at 1.0834. By the end of the day, the euro had risen by 17 points. The nature of this movement suggests that this breakthrough was false. This morning, the price continues to rise above the 1.0865 level. The Marlin oscillator continues its upward turn. Market participants are concerned that tomorrow, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will confirm the idea of a strong American economy and hint at another rate hike(possibly by 0.50%).   The concern arises from the fact that seemingly obvious things might be interpreted differently by the Fed itself, implying that there might be no further tightening. Generally, the Jackson Hole conference doesn't discuss specific issues, such as a rate hike in a month or two, so there will be opportunities for speculation in interpreting Powell's words. Considering the increased volatility of the EUR/USD pair, it might reach the target range of 1.0924/42 regardless of the tone set by the Fed chair. The question is about the euro's medium-term perspective.   On the four-hour chart, following the false downward movement, the price returned above the MACD line, and the Marlin oscillator entered the positive territory. An uptrend in the short-term, and the target range of 1.0924/42 is in sight. Consolidating above this range will open up the next target at 1.1012.  
Understanding the Factors Keeping Market Rates Under Upward Pressure

Global Bond Yields Dip on Soft PMI Data; Focus on USD/CAD and USD/JPY Trends

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 25.08.2023 09:52
Global bond yields have noticeably fallen in the last 24 hours after softer-than-expected preliminary PMI data. A significant drop in activity has been noted in the eurozone's services sector, especially in Germany. This reduces the chances of the European Central Bank raising rates in September and weighs on the euro. On Thursday, the market will focus on the report on durable goods orders and the weekly unemployment benefits. USD/CAD Retail sales in Canada showed weak results, leading to a decline in yields of short-term Canadian government bonds and a decrease in the CAD exchange rate.       At the same time, the pace of growth in average wages remains high, as the labor market supply lags behind demand. To curb inflation, there needs to be a swift deceleration in wage growth, which is only possible in conditions of a saturated labor market or a general economic slowdown. Another route is an increase in productivity, which remains low with no signs of improvement yet. The net short position on CAD increased by CAD 799 million for the reporting week, reaching CAD -845 million. Positioning is bearish, and the price is moving upwards.   A week earlier, we assumed that the upward movement would progress, and the main target is the upper band of the channel at 1.3690/3720. This target remains relevant. The consolidation is due to technical reasons rather than fundamental ones, and after the consolidation or minor correction concludes, we expect to see further growth.   We perceive support in the middle of the channel at 1.3360/80, but a potential decline to this zone before turning upwards seems unlikely. USD/JPY The core inflation rate (excluding fuel and food prices) in July accelerated from 4.2% to 4.3%, indicating that the Bank of Japan's cautious policy hasn't yielded significant results yet. The BOJ is the only one among major central banks continuing an ultra-soft policy, based on the assumption that inflation largely has an imported nature and will decrease as soon as global energy prices stabilize and the previously disrupted supply chains of goods and raw materials are restored       Such an approach might be justified, but the growth in core inflation indicates that there's more to it, and the Bank needs to be very cautious in choosing its next steps. The Ministry of Finance plans to allocate 28,142.4 billion yen to service the national debt in the 24th fiscal year, which is 2,892.1 billion yen more than in the 23rd fiscal year. The rate used to calculate JGB bond servicing costs remained at 1.1% for seven years, from the 17th to the 23rd fiscal year. If the Bank of Japan begins to raise the accounting rate, the calculated rate for servicing will also be increased for the first time in 17 years. Currently, there are no problems in servicing the national debt, but by the end of the 22nd fiscal year, the outstanding volume of JGBs amounted to a staggering 1,027 trillion yen. If Japan's economy continues to grow, increasing tax revenues will allow the debt to be serviced without significantly increasing borrowing.   However, if the global economic crisis intensifies, an increase in the BOJ's rate will lead to a rapid increase in the government's debt servicing expenses. For now, we must assume that any hints at an interest rate hike will lead to the yen's growth, complicating the debt servicing situation due to a deteriorating trade balance and reduced budget revenues. The Japanese government fears this scenario, hence any comments on monetary policy will continue to be very cautious. In the current circumstances, the yen is more likely to depreciate than strengthen. The net short position on JPY was slightly adjusted by 300 million, to -6.952 billion, with positioning decidedly bearish. The price is above the long-term average, the trend remains bullish, but the chances of an extended consolidation or a shallow correction has increased.     We expect an uptrend from the USD/JPY, with the upper band of the channel at 147.80/148.10 as the target. The risk of a deeper correction to the middle of the channel at 142.50/80 has increased, but the long-term trend remains bullish, and there's no reason to anticipate a reversal at the moment.  
Gold Trading Analysis: Technical Signals and Price Movements

Gold Trading Analysis: Technical Signals and Price Movements

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.08.2023 13:31
Early in the European session, gold is trading around 1,936.52, below the high reached at 1,938.13, and below 4/8 Murray. Yesterday, the US consumer confidence data showed a worsening of sentiment. This survey displayed concerns among consumers about the prices of groceries and gasoline in particular. This negative data for the US dollar affected Treasury yields which caused a strong rally in gold, breaking the 200 EMA located at 1,925.     According to the 4-hour chart, we can see that gold is trading within an uptrend channel. It is expected to continue moving there until it reaches the daily resistance zone located at 1,943. According to the 4-hour chart, we can see that the Eagle indicator reached the 95-point area which signals an imminent technical correction. It is likely to happen in the next few hours if XAU/USD falls below 4/8 Murray. The metal could reach the 200 EMA located at 1,925 and could even drop as low as 3/8 Murray at 1,921.   Given that the trend remains bullish, we could expect a rally in the next few hours and gold could continue its rise. In case of a break above 1,945, gold could reach 5/8 Murray located at 1,953. This level could serve as a strong rejection. Up to that level, the instrument is considered overbought which could also be seen as a clear signal to sell. On the other hand, if gold falls below 1,937 (4/8 Murray), we could see a clear signal to sell which will give us an opportunity to take profits around the bottom of the uptrend channel located at 1,917. The daily pivot point is located at 1,930.   If gold trades around this price level of 1,930, we could expect an accumulation or consolidation in the next few hours. Below 1,930, we could see a clear signal to sell. Conversely, above this level, a technical bounce could be triggered. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell gold below 1,937. In case there is a pullback around 1,943, we could sell with the target at 1,920. The Eagle indicator is in an overbought zone which supports our bearish strategy.  
China's August Yuan Loans Soar," Dollar Weakens Against Yen and Yuan, AUD/JPY Consolidates at 94.00 Level

China's August Yuan Loans Soar," Dollar Weakens Against Yen and Yuan, AUD/JPY Consolidates at 94.00 Level

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 12.09.2023 10:33
China’s new yuan loans skyrocketed to 1.36 trillion yuan in August, much higher than the prior month’s 345 billion yuan. Optimism grows for China’s outlook as stimulus appears to filtering throughout the economy Dollar has biggest drop in two months as yen and yuan gain The big risk aversion trade over the summer has seen AUD/JPY consolidate around the 94.00 level.  A downbeat outlook for China kept the Australian dollar heavy, while US economic resilience has kept yen softer on a widening interest rate differential.  The AUD/JPY daily highlights a global growth picture that is either looking for a China rebound, which should help Australia’s growth momentum or a Japan recovery that is not on solid footing. The AUD/JPY daily displays a symmetrical triangle that shows price has converged towards the 94.00 region.  The bullish trend that started in the spring ended mid-June ahead of the 97.70 level.  Price is poised to either resume the longer-term bullish trend that started after the pandemic low was made in March 2020 or potentially show the start of a significant bearish reversal.                   The Australian dollar and Japanese yen seems likely to remain a key risk barometer, which means it could react strongly with what happens with this week’s US inflation data and with China’s decision on rates and their activity data.  If bullishness emerges, price could initially targets the 95.50 region, while downside support would come from the 200-day SMA level, which currently resides at the 92.00 level. This week the Australian economic calendar is filled with economic data that might take a backseat to everything that happens from the US and China.  The main Australian data release of the week is Australia jobs, which could show job growth rebounded, but will unlikely bring back rate hike expectations for the RBA  
New Zealand Dollar's Bearish Trend Wanes as Global Growth Outlook Improves

New Zealand Dollar's Bearish Trend Wanes as Global Growth Outlook Improves

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 14.09.2023 10:19
RBNZ expects a contraction in Q3 and Q4, while Treasury sees growth continuing into Q3 (avoiding a recession) Monthly resistance hovers at 0.6015, September 1st high, while support resides at 0.5741, November 3rd low New Zealand overnight swap index price in a peak rate of 5.598% by the February 28th meeting The New Zealand dollar’s bearish trend that has firmly been in place since the middle of the summer appears to be running out of steam. All the China growth concerns and policy-driven recession might be fully priced in.  Price action on the daily chart shows bearish momentum accelerated after the break of key trendline support and the daily close below the 50-day SMA.  Initial support has emerged from the 0.5850 level, but for that to hold investors will need to become more optimistic with the Chinese growth outlook.         Despite an interest rate differential that will remain clearly in the dollar’s favor, the pair appears poised to consolidate between 0.5850 and 0.6000.  A break below that range will see sellers establish a more bearish bias, potentially eyeing the 0.5740 region. It is around that area that a bullish Gartley pattern could form.  Point D is targeted by both the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the X to A leg and the 161.8% Fibonacci expansion level of the B to C leg. If the global growth outlook stabilizes here, the kiwi could attempt to recapture the 0.6015 level.  The New Zealand economy could have a modest recovery in the fourth quarter, anticipating improving Chinese economic data, a peak in the US dollar put in place, and as commodity currencies outperform in the winter. RBNZ expects a contraction in Q3 and Q4, while Treasury sees growth continuing into Q3 (avoiding a recession) Monthly resistance hovers at 0.6015, September 1st high, while support resides at 0.5741, November 3rd low New Zealand overnight swap index price in a peak rate of 5.598% by the February 28th meeting   The New Zealand dollar’s bearish trend that has firmly been in place since the middle of the summer appears to be running out of steam. All the China growth concerns and policy-driven recession might be fully priced in.  Price action on the daily chart shows bearish momentum accelerated after the break of key trendline support and the daily close below the 50-day SMA.  Initial support has emerged from the 0.5850 level, but for that to hold investors will need to become more optimistic with the Chinese growth outlook.     Despite an interest rate differential that will remain clearly in the dollar’s favor, the pair appears poised to consolidate between 0.5850 and 0.6000.  A break below that range will see sellers establish a more bearish bias, potentially eyeing the 0.5740 region. It is around that area that a bullish Gartley pattern could form.  Point D is targeted by both the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the X to A leg and the 161.8% Fibonacci expansion level of the B to C leg. If the global growth outlook stabilizes here, the kiwi could attempt to recapture the 0.6015 level.  The New Zealand economy could have a modest recovery in the fourth quarter, anticipating improving Chinese economic data, a peak in the US dollar put in place, and as commodity currencies outperform in the winter.   Upcoming Data Friday’s August BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI reading is expected to remain in contraction territory for a sixth straight month.  Business conditions will start to show signs of improving, but manufacturers will likely remain cautious.  China’s activity data should provide some evidence the economy is stabilizing.  Industrial production and retail sales should show modest improvements.    
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Bulls Eye Key Resistance Levels in Forex Market, Awaiting Confirmation for Further Upside Momentum

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.10.2023 15:17
Higher Timeframes Yesterday, the bears couldn't hold their ground. As a result, by the end of the working week, the market arrived with a looming lower shadow, the size of which could influence the overall sentiment and market possibilities. It is worth noting that the daily cross has changed. If the bulls can now take control of the range 1.0601 - 1.0610 (daily short-term trend + weekly cloud boundary), they can use it as a basis for a new attempt to rise. Failures and market uncertainty at this moment may lead to the formation of consolidation.   On the lower timeframes, the decline has stopped. At this moment, the bulls have already managed to reclaim the central pivot point of the day (1.0552). Their next target is the weekly long-term trend (1.0593). Consolidation above and a reversal of the moving average will allow for a change in the current balance of power towards further bullish sentiment. Additional intraday targets can be marked at the resistances (1.0580 - 1.0599 - 1.0627) and supports (1.0533 - 1.0505 - 1.0486) of the classic pivot points. Higher Timeframes Over the past day, there have been no significant changes. The monthly medium-term trend (1.2135) continues to hold the market in its attraction zone, and the tasks facing market participants remain relevant. In the current situation, bulls need to eliminate the daily Ichimoku cross (1.2186 - 1.2221) and update the highs of the current correction (1.2287 - 1.2336). For bears, it is important to exit the zone of weekly and daily correction (1.2036) and enter the weekly cloud (1.2027).    
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EUR/USD Analysis: Weekly Outlook and Intraday Levels

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 10.11.2023 11:39
EUR/USD   Higher Timeframes The past day has been bearish, but significant changes have not occurred as the pair continues to remain within the range of the previous days, forming consolidation. Today, we close the working week, and the result is of interest. If the bears manage to create a clear bearish sentiment in the weekly candlestick pattern, the euro's tasks will be aimed at breaking through the level of 1.0614 (weekly short-term trend + monthly medium-term trend) and eliminating the daily Ichimoku cross (1.0652 – 1.0638 – 1.0620 – 1.0588). For the bulls, the current situation still faces weekly resistances at 1.0733 – 1.0766.     H4 – H1 On the lower timeframes, the bears managed to break below key levels towards the end of yesterday. Currently, this position is maintained, and strengthening their positions will be possible through the continuation of the current decline and gaining support from classic pivot points (1.0644 – 1.0620 – 1.0579). The key levels today are holding defense around 1.0685 – 1.0701 (central pivot point + weekly long-term trend). Consolidation above and a reversal of the movement could bring activity back into the market, favoring the bulls. Additional intraday bullish targets include 1.0709 – 1.0750 – 1.0774 (resistances of classic pivot points).     Higher Timeframes Bears successfully advanced yesterday and are close to closing the current week with a bearish candlestick combination, forming a rebound when testing important weekly levels (1.2268 – 1.2292). A weekly rebound and the elimination of the daily Ichimoku cross (1.2205) will draw attention to breaking the support of the monthly medium-term trend (1.2093) and the recovery of the weekly downward trend (1.2036).       H4 – H1 On the lower timeframes, the bulls lost key levels yesterday, shifting the main advantage to the bears. To develop the decline, intraday targets today may be the supports of classic pivot points (1.2184 – 1.2151 – 1.2089). The key levels currently act as resistances and are located at 1.2246 (central pivot point of the day) and 1.2301 (weekly long-term trend). Consolidation above could change the current balance of power. The next targets for the recovery of bullish positions within the day will be 1.2341 and 1.2374 (resistances of classic pivot points).
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Consolidation and Potential Upside Momentum

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.11.2023 13:52
EUR/USD: Yesterday, the euro experienced a slight correction and took a breather after rallying on Tuesday. The price did not drop below the support level of 1.0834, and this morning it is trying to rise above the price channel line (1.0850). If it consolidates above it, the next target will be 1.0937/46 with an intermediate level of 1.0905. One notable aspect of the substantial rally on Tuesday is that it occurred on average volumes. This implies that the stop-losses of major sellers were not closed; they are even higher. Two possible scenarios could unfold: a deep correction might occur either from the accumulation of these stop-losses or after their closure, leading to another powerful upward movement. In any case, we expect the price to reach the target level of 1.1096. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has turned downward from the upper band of its own ascending channel. Here, too, there could be two scenarios: the line is working on the lower band of the channel, which can affect the price in expanding the consolidation, potentially down to the Fibonacci retracement lower ray (1.0777), or the line from the current levels turns upwards with a retest of the upper band of the channel, or it breaks above into the overbought territory (likely testing 1.0937/46).   On the 4-hour chart, it appears as if the upward movement will persist since there were only candle shadows in the support range. The Marlin oscillator has already fallen low enough, releasing tension; it is ready to rise further. We will find out whether the price consolidates above resistance or below support.
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When Fantastic Falls Short: Fed Minutes and Nvidia Earnings Analysis

Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 22.11.2023 14:50
When fantastic falls short...  By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank   The minutes from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest monetary policy meeting showed that the Fed members agreed to 'proceed carefully' with their future rate decisions. Carefully doesn't mean that the Fed is done tightening, it means that it will 'proceed carefully' in the light of the economic data and the market conditions to decide whether it should hike, pause, or cut the interest rates. Note that 'most' members 'continued to see upside risks to inflation'.   Alas, the cautious tone in Fed minutes went completely unheard as the latest CPI data acted as a shield against the Fed hawks. As such, the market reaction to the Fed minutes was muted. The US 2-year yield remained little changed near the 4.90% level, the 10-year yield rebounded past 4.40%, and is still around 60bp lower than the October levels. The S&P500, which is now trading in the overbought market, retreated 0.20% and Nasdaq 100 fell 0.60% from an almost 2-year high, as investors didn't want to do much before seeing the Nvidia's results.   When fantastic falls short...  Nvidia's Q3 results were strong. The company exceeded the $16bn revenue forecast by $2bn. They earned more than $18bn, made more than $4 profit per share and said that they will be earning around $20bn this quarter. But the latter forecast couldn't meet the top forecast ($21bn) and the share price fell in the afterhours trading, though by less than 2%; investors couldn't decide whether they should buy the fact that the company exceeded the sky-high expectations, or they should sell the reality that the chip sales to China will slow this quarter and that would weigh on revenue – although Nvidia stated that the 'decline will be more than offset by strong growth in other regions' and that they are working to comply with regulations to sell to China, anyway.   Taking a step back: Nvidia is growing, it is growing fast, it has potential to grow further, but the valuation of the company is also sky-high, its price got multiplied by almost five since October 2022. Its PE ratio stands around 120 versus a PE ratio of around 25 in average for S&P500 companies. And its market capitalization is more than $1 trillion more than Intel's, which used to be the world's biggest chipmaker. In summary, the company is growing but that strong growth is already priced in and out. Therefore, we will probably not see a big profit taking post-earnings, we will likely see correction and consolidation instead below the $500 psychological hurdle.   And with that – the Nvidia earnings – out of the way, the S&P500 and Nasdaq futures are slightly in the negative at the time of writing. The market will likely digest the Fed minutes and the Nvidia results in a calm mood before the Thanksgiving holiday.   
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The Day of Speculation: Bank of Japan Hints at Exiting Negative Interest Rate Policy, Shaking FX Markets

ING Economics ING Economics 12.12.2023 13:58
The day has come.  By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank   Yesterday was finally the day that most FX traders have been waiting for since at least a year: the day where the Bank of Japan (BoJ) gave a hint that it will finally exit its negative interest rate policy. Precisely, the BoJ Governor said, after his meeting with the Japanese PM - that handling of monetary policy would get tougher from the end of the year. Indeed, the BoJ is buying a spectacular quantity of JGBs to keep the YCC intact at absurdly low levels compared with where the rest of the developed markets yields are following an almost 2-year long of aggressive monetary policy tightening campaign. At its highest this year – after the BoJ relaxed the rules on its YCC policy – the 10-year JGB flirted with the 1% mark, whereas the 10-year yield German bund yield hit 3%, the 10-year British gilt yield advanced to 4.70% and the US 10-year yield hit 5%. Certainly, inflation in Japan lagged significantly behind inflation in Western peers, yet inflation in the US is now exactly where inflation in Japan is: near 3%.   The BoJ's negative rate is the last souvenir of the zero/negative rate era and any small hint that things will get moving over there could move oceans. And this is what happened yesterday. The speculation that the BoJ will hike rates as soon as this month spiked to 45% soon after Mr. Kuroda's words reached investors ears. The 10-year JGB yield spiked to 0.80% from around 0.62% reached earlier this week in parallel with the falling DM yields. The USDJPY fell from 147 to 141 in a single move, and the pair is consolidating gains a touch below 144 this morning, as traders argue whether a December normalization is too soon or not. Fundamentally it is not: in all cases, the BoJ will start normalizing policy two years after the Bank of England (BoE) hiked its rate for the first time after a long period. And the BoJ will be normalizing its rates when all major central banks plateaued their tightening policy and when investors are out guessing when the normalization – toward the other direction – will begin. So no, fundamentally, it is not too early for the BoJ to start hiking its policy rate. But it would be a sudden move – that's for sure!   In any case, it is more likely than not that the fortunes of the Japanese yen turned for good this week. In the short run, consolidation is the immediate answer to yesterday's kneejerk rally – which took the USDJPY immediately into the oversold market conditions as the move was also amplified with many traders covering their short positions. But from here, yen traders will be looking to sell the tops rather than to buy to dips. A sustainable move below 142.60 – the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on this year's bullish trend – will confirm a return to the bearish consolidation zone, then the pair will likely take out the next major technical supports: the 200-DMA near 142.30, the next psychological support at 140 and should gently head back to – at least around 127 – where it started the year. But these forecasts will hold only, and if only, the BoJ doesn't make a sudden U-turn on its normalization plans. Remember, the BoJ didn't say it would normalize. It just said that it will be hard to handle the actual policy for longer. If one were to imagine, Governor Kuroda maybe spent last night looking at the ceiling and wondering 'what have I said!'. Funny thing is, the BoJ's rate normalization speculation comes a few hours before the country revealed a 2% fall in its GDP; obviously, the global policy tightening has been hard on the world economy, and Japan can't avoid the global slowdown winds. If it turns out, Japan might normalize its monetary policy when its economy begins to slow down.    
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The Day of Anticipation: BoJ's Hint at Exiting Negative Rates Sparks Market Reaction

Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 12.12.2023 14:50
The day has come By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank   Yesterday was finally the day that most FX traders have been waiting for since at least a year: the day where the Bank of Japan (BoJ) gave a hint that it will finally exit its negative interest rate policy. Precisely, the BoJ Governor said, after his meeting with the Japanese PM - that handling of monetary policy would get tougher from the end of the year. Indeed, the BoJ is buying a spectacular quantity of JGBs to keep the YCC intact at absurdly low levels compared with where the rest of the developed markets yields are following an almost 2-year long of aggressive monetary policy tightening campaign. At its highest this year – after the BoJ relaxed the rules on its YCC policy – the 10-year JGB flirted with the 1% mark, whereas the 10-year yield German bund yield hit 3%, the 10-year British gilt yield advanced to 4.70% and the US 10-year yield hit 5%. Certainly, inflation in Japan lagged significantly behind inflation in Western peers, yet inflation in the US is now exactly where inflation in Japan is: near 3%.   The BoJ's negative rate is the last souvenir of the zero/negative rate era and any small hint that things will get moving over there could move oceans. And this is what happened yesterday. The speculation that the BoJ will hike rates as soon as this month spiked to 45% soon after Mr. Ueda's words reached investors ears. The 10-year JGB yield spiked to 0.80% from around 0.62% reached earlier this week in parallel with the falling DM yields. The USDJPY fell from 147 to 141 in a single move, and the pair is consolidating gains a touch below 144 this morning, as traders argue whether a December normalization is too soon or not. Fundamentally it is not: in all cases, the BoJ will start normalizing policy two years after the Bank of England (BoE) hiked its rate for the first time after a long period. And the BoJ will be normalizing its rates when all major central banks plateau their tightening policy and when investors are out guessing when the normalization – toward the other direction – will begin. So no, fundamentally, it is not too early for the BoJ to start hiking its policy rate. But it would be a sudden move – that's for sure!   The Day of Anticipation: BoJ's Hint at Exiting Negative Rates Sparks Market Reaction"In any case, it is more likely than not that the fortunes of the Japanese yen turned for good this week. In the short run, consolidation is the immediate answer to yesterday's kneejerk rally – which took the USDJPY immediately into the oversold market conditions as the move was also amplified with many traders covering their short positions. But from here, yen traders will be looking to sell the tops rather than to buy to dips. A sustainable move below 142.60 – the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on this year's bullish trend – will confirm a return to the bearish consolidation zone, then the pair will likely take out the next major technical supports: the 200-DMA near 142.30, the next psychological support at 140 and should gently head back to – at least around 127 – where it started the year. But these forecasts will hold only, and if only, the BoJ doesn't make a sudden U-turn on its normalization plans. Remember, the BoJ didn't say it would normalize. It just said that it will be hard to handle the actual policy for longer. If one were to imagine, Governor Ueda maybe spent last night looking at the ceiling and wondering 'what have I said!'. Funny thing is, the BoJ's rate normalization speculation comes a few hours before the country revealed a 2% fall in its GDP; obviously, the global policy tightening has been hard on the world economy, and Japan can't avoid the global slowdown winds. If it turns out, Japan might normalize its monetary policy when its economy begins to slow down.    
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Decoding GBP/USD Trends: COT Insights, Technical Analysis, and Market Sentiment

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.01.2024 14:21
COT reports on the British pound show that the sentiment of commercial traders has been changing quite frequently in recent months. The red and green lines, representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, often intersect and, in most cases, are not far from the zero mark. According to the latest report on the British pound, the non-commercial group closed 10,000 buy contracts and 4,200 short ones. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by 5,800 contracts in a week. Since bulls currently don't have the advantage, we believe that the pound will not be able to sustain the upward movement for long . The fundamental backdrop still does not provide a basis for long-term purchases on the pound.   The non-commercial group currently has a total of 58,800 buy contracts and 44,700 sell contracts. Since the COT reports cannot make an accurate forecast of the market's behavior right now, and the fundamentals are practically the same for both currencies, we can only assess the technical picture and economic reports. The technical analysis suggests that we can expect a strong decline, and the economic reports have also been significantly stronger in the United States for quite some time now.   On the 1H chart, GBP/USD is making every effort to correct lower, but the uptrend remains intact. We believe that the British pound doesn't have any good reason to strengthen in the long-term. Therefore, at the very least, we expect the pair to return to the level of 1.2513. However, there are currently no sell signals, so the uptrend is still intact. On Tuesday, there are few reasons for the pair to show volatile movements. We may see a flat phase, a downtrend, or an uptrend (intraday), so we need to purely rely on technical analysis. We expect the pound to consolidate below the trendline, and in that case, we can consider selling while aiming for the Senkou Span B line. A n upward movement is theoretically possible today, but we see no reason for it, so you shouldn't consider buying at the moment. As of January 2, we highlight the following important levels: 1.2215, 1.2269, 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2513, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2726, 1.2786, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987. The Senkou Span B line (1.2646) and the Kijun-sen (1.2753) lines can also be sources of signals. Don't forget to set a breakeven Stop Loss to breakeven if the price has moved in the intended direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, so this should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Today, the UK and the US will release their second estimates of business activity indices in the manufacturing sector for December. These are not significant reports so it is unlikely for traders to react to them. Description of the chart: Support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which the trend may end. They do not provide trading signals; The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, plotted to the 1H timeframe from the 4H one. They provide trading signals; Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals; Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns; Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size for each category of traders; Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the net position size for the Non-commercial group.  

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