complex indicator analysis

As expected, the market continues to move sideways. Technically, the pound has dipped, but the scale of the movement is so insignificant that it can be categorized as symbolic. The stagnation is mainly due to the empty economic calendar and the lack of any significant news capable of influencing market participants' sentiment.   It is difficult to say anything about today's news because we don't know what can happen. However, as I mentioned, the economic calendar remains empty. It seems that today we will continue to witness a purely symbolic weakening of the pound. The GBP/USD pair has slowed down its upward cycle around the 1.2850 level, which points to the decline in the volume of long positions. This has led to a pullback, which, considering the overbought status of the British currency, is considered a justified move in the market.   On the four-hour chart, the RSI has left the overbought territory when the pair reversed its course, which could serve as a stage for force realignment. On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which reflects the upward cycle. Outlook: The pullback is still relevant, but it does not disrupt the rhythmic component of the uptrend.   If this persists, the price could move towards the 1.2700 level. Regarding the bullish scenario, we will receive a technical signal for the continuation of the medium-term trend once the price stays above the 1.2850 level. In terms of the complex indicator analysis, we see that in the short-term and intraday periods, technical indicators suggest a pullback. In the mid-term period, indicators are reflecting an uptrend.  

It's not surprising that the market is simply stagnant. Not only is the economic calendar completely empty, but traders are also focused on a few other things, quite detached from the global economy. However, this cannot go on forever.   Especially since macro data will be published today. And we're not talking about some insignificant data, but about durable goods orders in the United States, which are expected to fall by 0.9%. This means that consumer activity is somewhat declining. Following that, inflation will continue to slow down. So this could prove to be disadvantageous for the dollar today, and the greenback may depreciate.     The GBP/USD pair has once again rebounded from the support level of 1.2700. However, there have been no significant changes on the trading chart, and the quote is still around the low end of the corrective cycle. On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is hovering along the 50 midline, indicating a flat.   On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are headed downwards. This is a residual signal from the corrective move. Outlook: The sideways movement between 1.2700 and 1.2750 can serve as a consolidation phase, during which sharp price changes are possible. The most optimal tactic would be a breakout strategy based on the range.   In terms of the complex indicator analysis, we see that in the short-term and intraday period, technical indicators are giving mixed signals due to the flat phase. In the medium-term, the indicators are pointing to an upward cycle.  

The market hardly reacts to final data on PMIs as they mostly coincide with preliminary estimates. Any significant trading movements usually occur during the release of the preliminary estimates. By the time the final data is published, the market has already taken these indicators into account. Furthermore, the preliminary estimates are released simultaneously for all indexes, while the final data is released at different times.   For example, today, only the manufacturing PMIs are slated for release, which have the lowest value among all business activity indexes. In other words, even if today's data differs from the preliminary estimates, which is possible, the market response will be relatively moderate, and so we shouldn't expect any significant movements. The preliminary estimate of the UK manufacturing PMI already revealed a decline from 47.1 points to 46.2 points.   The US PMI also fell from 48.4 points to 46.3 points. Therefore, the preliminary estimate already indicated a noticeable decline in the state of the industry. The GBP/USD pair has slowed down its downward cycle around the 1.2600 level, where a reversal occurred amid the weakening of the dollar positions.       As a result, the price returned above the 1.2700 level. On the four-hour chart, the RSI indicated the possibility of a price reversal when reaching oversold territory. On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs reversed, indicating a slowdown in the downward cycle. Outlook In order to raise the volume of long positions, the quote needs to stay above the 1.2750 level. In this case, there may be a subsequent stage of recovery in the value of the British pound relative to the recent corrective move.   As for a subsequent downward move, falling below the 1.0650 level could easily reignite short positions. This will result in updating the local low of the corrective cycle. The complex indicator analysis unveiled that in the short-term period, technical indicators are pointing to a bearish bias from the 1.2700 level. In the intraday period, there is a primary signal of the end of the corrective phase. In the mid-term, the indicators are pointing to an uptrend.  

According to the report from the United States Department of Labor, the unemployment rate declined from 3.6% to 3.5%, which, logically, should have pushed the dollar higher. But on the contrary, the US dollar dipped. This is due to the fact that the non-farm payroll rose by only 187,000. Not only was this lower compared to forecasts of 190,000, but the previous figure was also revised downward from 209,000 to 185,000 jobs. In other words, over the past two months, far fewer jobs were created than needed to maintain labor market stability. Considering the population growth rate and the level of economic activity, approximately 250,000 new jobs need to be created monthly. Of course, these numbers will vary significantly from month to month, but if two consecutive months have significantly fewer jobs than this average, how can the unemployment rate decrease at all? This is why the dollar became weaker, as it creates distrust in the official data. And this can trigger a real panic. So, the fact that the dollar became weaker on Friday is nothing but a flight from the risks of uncertainty.     There is no economic data scheduled in the calendar on Monday. Emotions will settle down a bit, and the market will recover slightly. The main result will be a small retracement. During a partial recovery, the EUR/USD pair temporarily rose above the 1.1000 level. However, it failed to stay above this value, and as a result, the price returned below the psychological level. This indicates that the corrective move will continue from the high of the mid-term trend. On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving around the 50 middle line, which may signal an increase in the volume of short positions. On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are intersecting each other, which points to a slowdown in the corrective move.     Outlook In this case, if the price says below the 1.1000 level, it may lead to an increase in selling volumes. To continue the corrective move, the quote needs to stay below the 1.0900 level. As for an alternative scenario, traders may consider an upward move in the recovery process if the price remains above the 1.1050 level. The complex indicator analysis unveiled that in the short-term period, indicators suggest a downward cycle since the price fell below the 1.1000 mark. In the intraday period, indicators point to the recovery process in the euro. In the medium-term period, indicators signal a slowdown in the uptrend.  

Industrial output in the eurozone fell more than expected, as total production dropped 1.1% on month in September, while forecasts were for output to be down 0.8% on month. However, this report did not lead to any noticeable movements in the foreign exchange market. Investors were clearly waiting for US data, the forecasts for which also carried a negative tone, as they intended to extend the dollar selloff. However, the annual trend in retail sales slowed from 4.1% y/y in September to 2.5% y/y in October, whereas a slowdown from 3.8% to 2.1% was expected. So not only were the actual reports better, but the previous results were also revised for the better. Afterwards, a full-fledged rebound started, and the dollar was able to improve its position. The only thing we can highlight for today is the initial jobless claims in the United States. The total number is expected to increase by 8,000. The changes are extremely insignificant and are unlikely to have a serious impact on the current situation. Considering that the rebound is not yet complete, we expect the dollar to gradually rise further.   The EUR/USD pair has entered a retracement phase due to the high overbought levels. The level of 1.0900 acts as resistance, and we observed a decline in the volume of long positions near this area. On the four-hour chart, the RSI downwardly crossed the 70 line. This technical signal indicates that the euro's overbought conditions have started to ease, given that a retracement phase is being formed. On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards. The signal corresponds to the upward cycle, ignoring the ongoing retracement. Outlook The ongoing retracement persists, which is why traders are considering a scenario with the pair moving towards the level of 1.0800. The succeeding movement will depend on the price's behavior near this level—whether sellers can keep the quotes below it or if the level will act as support. The complex indicator analysis points to the retracement phase in the short-term and intraday periods.