commodities prices

  • Current up moves in long-duration equities and fixed income came at the expense of a weaker US dollar.
  • A persistent weak US dollar may lead to an upside revival in commodities prices.
  • Inflationary expectations may creep up again due to higher oil/commodities prices.
  • Disinflationary narrative seems premature and may be mispriced.

 

Market participants have taken a “disinflation ecstasy pill”, bidding up long-duration equities and fixed income in the past two sessions after the latest June US CPI data came in below expectations with the headline print dipped to 3% year-on-year, its slowest rate of growth seen in two years. The core consumer inflation rate (excluding food & energy) also slowed to 4.8% year-on-year from 5.3% recorded in May and dipped below the current Fed Funds rate of 5% to 5.25%.

In terms of week-to-date performances as of 13 July, higher beta and long-duration equities outperformed, and the Nasdaq 100 rallied by +3.56%, just 7.7% away from its November 2

The Commodities Feed: First US crude draw this year

Price Of Crude Oil (WTI) And Natural Gas (NGAS) Boosting US Dollar (USD) Which Jumps High

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.04.2022 09:57
Energy prices continue to fly into the stratosphere, adding 30% since the start of April, strengthening at twice the rate of March. The last time US gas was this expensive was in October 2008. Energy, oil, and gas have a very high price elasticity Demand for American gas has surged as Europe tries to cut back on purchases from Russia as much as possible. But this also puts the current commodity sharply in short supply. Energy, oil, and gas have a very high price elasticity, meaning that a supply or demand shift of just a couple of per cent leads to a much higher price change. Thus, the US provokes soaring prices on domestic markets by providing Europe with gas. Oil also receives a strong upward marches, not only as of the closest substitute but also as another Russian export that the world is in a hurry to abandon. Oil prices managed to stay in an uptrend WTI was back above $105, and Brent closed Thursday above $110, returning to levels of two weeks ago. Oil prices managed to stay in an uptrend, albeit this time as a slider amid accelerating gas prices. The performance of oil and gas prices is supported by US export figures, which is favourable for the Dollar. Notably, in contrast to the historical correlation, energy is rising with the Dollar, although more often than not, a rising dollar pressures energy. As one of the leading energy exporters, having strengthened its position, the states will economically have the most negligible impact on the economy compared with most developed countries that are net importers of oil and gas. Fed can raise interest rates more quickly Higher energy costs may not prevent the Dollar from moving somewhat up further but may strengthen it by giving the Fed carte blanche to tighten policy more forcefully. The Fed can raise interest rates more quickly, but it can also push them to higher levels without the risk of seriously hurting the economy.
Eurozone PMI Shows Limited Improvement Amid Lingering Contraction Concerns in September

U.S bond Yields vs Gold Futures, Volatility In The Price Of Coffee, Brent Crude Price Falls

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 25.04.2022 16:22
Summary: Coffee futures prices are being affected by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Brent Crude Oil Prices falling despite ongoing uncertainties with the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Gold futures prices falling as the US bond yields change once again. Coffee futures prices showing volatility. The futures price for coffee has fallen 2.11% since the market opened this morning. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine war with no sign of slowing, has had an adverse effect on the price of coffee futures over the last while, this is represented in the graph below. There are concerns about growth and therefore supply with the Russia-Ukraine conflicts and in addition the poor rainfall in Brazil this year continues to raise concerns about supply, however the demand is also decreasing as a result of the conflicts. This relationship could be causing the volatility in this commodity. Coffee Jul ‘22 Futures Prices Is the Price of Brent Crude Oil Finally Falling? Since the market opened this morning, the price of Brent Crude Oil has fallen by almost 5%. The weakening of the price comes despite the Russia-Ukraine war uncertainties and the post-covid world economy reopening. Occasionally the price of Brent Crude is adversely affected as the US Dollar strengthens, seeing as the Fed increased the U.S yields again for the seventh consecutive week, the US dollar saw more strengthening on the market today, this could be a possible reason for the price fall in Brent Crude. Brent Crude Oil Price Chart   Read next: (XAGUSD) Price of Silver Vs. U.S Yields, Lumber and Corn Futures Dependent on Demand and Supply    Gold prices affected by US Yields once again. This time last week gold futures had hit their high for April, however since the market opened this morning, the price has fallen by 1.96%, and is 5% down from its 18 April high. Normally gold is used as a hedge against inflation, however since the US yields increased again, the opportunity cost of holding gold and not bonds increases, driving the price of gold down further. This commodity is one to watch especially if the Fed continues to be hawkish. Gold Futures Price Chart Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, ndtv.com   Read Next: Unexpectedly Gold Price (XAUUSD) Falls, Canada And Chicago - Weather Makes Wheat Futures Fluctuate. The Price Of Palladium - Industrial Activity Is Taking Strain   
US and European Equity Futures Mixed Amid Economic Concerns and Yield Surge

Palladium Price To Struggle In Recovery, Silver Prices (XAGUSD) Facing Downward Pressure

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.04.2022 11:30
Summary: Palladium and Silver prices are being affected by the hawkish Fed and the China lockdown. Could Wheat Futures prices be in recovery mode? Palladium price to struggle in recovery. The price of Palladium fell almost 13% by the end of the trading day on Monday. Since the market opened this morning, palladiums price has increased by almost 4%, rebounding as a result of concerns around reduced demand due to the lockdown in China. The recovery of Palladium looks fragile for the future and the escalating COVID-19 situation in China will put pressure on the recovery of this commodity. Palladium Jun 22 Futures Read next: U.S bond Yields vs Gold Futures, Volatility In The Price Of Coffee, Brent Crude Price Falls  Silver prices are seeing consistent declines. Since the market opened this morning the price of Silver futures have slightly increased, however over the past week, the prices have been falling quite drastically. This drop in price comes hand-in-hand with the hawkish Fed and uncertainties around China and their COVID lockdowns. The recovery of Silver is uncertain amidst the current market uncertainty. Silver May 22 Futures Wheat Futures prices. Chicago Wheat Futures prices are up by almost 2% since market opening today. Despite the adverse weather conditions and the Russia-Ukraine conflict causing concerns around supply, the price of Wheat Futures has still seen a fall over the past week. Perhaps given the concerns in China we will see the price of Wheat Futures recover in the coming weeks. Chicago SRW Wheat Futures Jul 22 Read next: Carbon Net-Zero Goals Affecting the Prices of Platinum, Copper and Lithium   Sources: Finance.yahoo.com
Oz Minerals’ Quarterly Copper Output Hit A Record High, Brent Futures Rose

Natural GAS (NGAS) and RBOB Gasoline’s (RB) May Futures Expected To Increase Further In 2022. Copper (HG) Prices Also Forecasted To Increase.

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 28.04.2022 09:13
Summary: Natural Gas and RBOB gasoline prices are expected to increase even more throughout 2022. Increasing energy prices raise concerns around the future of clean-energy. Increasing costs of metals are driving the price of renewable energy up. Natural Gas Futures prices are expected to increase further this year. Over the past week the price of Natural Gas has dipped and then recovered. Since the market opened this morning the price of this commodity has fallen by almost 2.6%. On Wednesday the World Bank released a statement indicating that they expected energy prices to increase by a further 50% throughout 2022 before easing in 2023 and 2024. The prices of most commodities are dependent on what happens with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has already shocked the commodity market by altering trading patterns, production and consumption. NGAS Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline prices are expected to increase in 2022. Since the market opened this morning, the price of RBOB Gasoline has fallen by almost 0.7% and has seen varied prices over the past week. Since RBOB Gasoline forms part of energy commodities, the price is expected to increase according to the World Bank's forecast above. The increase in energy prices has raised concerns that the transition to clean-energy will be delayed, as many countries have announced plans to increase their production of fossil fuels. RBOB Gasoline Futures Price Chart Copper Futures prices are expected to increase in 2022. According to the article of commodity markets outlook released by the World Bank, the price of metals are expected to increase almost 20% in 2022. Should the war between Russia and the Ukraine persist, price forecasts could change even more. The price of Copper will also be affected by the changing trade patterns being more expensive, in addition the higher metal prices are pushing up the cost of renewable energy in general. However, since the market opened this morning the price of copper has fallen by 0.83%, this has been the general price trend of the commodity over the past week, perhaps a result of investor sentiment and uncertainties around China's lockdowns. Copper Futures Price Chart Sources: worldbank.org, finance.yahoo.com
Gold (XAUUSD) Prices Fall As U.S Yields Rise, Wheat Prices Facing Pressure, Palladium Prices In Recovery! - Commodities Today.

Gold (XAUUSD) Prices Fall As U.S Yields Rise, Wheat Prices Facing Pressure, Palladium Prices In Recovery! - Commodities Today.

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 02.05.2022 10:48
Summary: Gold versus U.S Yields. Palladium Prices showing signs of recovery. Wheat prices affected by Russia’s possible taxation of the commodity. Gold Futures Price Falls As the opportunity cost for holding rises. The price of gold has fallen amidst the Federal Reserve raising yields and therefore putting pressure on zero-yield bullion. The market is concerned at how big the next 2 interest rate hikes could be, the Fed are putting their best foot forward as they attempt to fight the increasing inflation and increasing labour costs. As the short term U.S interest yields increase, the opportunity cost for holding gold increases too, driving the price down with the falling demand. Gold Futures Price Chart   Read next: Exxon and Chevron Earnings Announcements Has Little Effect on Brent Crude Oil Prices, Bullish Market Sentiment For Cotton and Gold Prices Rise Again    Palladium prices are back on the rise. Over the past week the price of palladium has seen an overall positive price trend, this comes with the problems in supply chains around the world and the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia is one of the biggest producers and exporters in the world, with South Africa, Russia produces and exports around 70% of the world's palladium. The sanctions on Russia are putting a dent in supply, in addition, the lockdowns in China causing concerns around demand. Palladium Futures Price Chart Wheat prices facing pressure. Wheat Future prices down around 1% today. The price has been stable over the past week apart from the sharp drop on Sunday amidst concerns around Russia imposing taxes on its wheat exports between now and July 2022. There are concerns around demand and supply with Wheat due to the war in the Ukraine and concerns around supply chains. Wheat Futures Price Chart   Read next: Natural GAS (NGAS) and RBOB Gasoline’s (RB) May Futures Expected To Increase Further In 2022. Copper (HG) Prices Also Forecasted To Increase.    Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, agriculture.com
Russia's Active Production Cuts Could Be Grounds For A Bullish Shock

Brent Crude Oil Price Continues To Dive, Silver Struggling To Hold Its Price Position & Corn Prices Soaring.

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 03.05.2022 14:58
Summary: Brent crude oil faces production problems around the world. Silver prices have been driven down by the US Dollar rally. Corn Futures are expected to remain elevated. Brent Crude Oil prices heavily affected by China's lockdowns. Over the past week we have seen the price of Brent Crude Oil fell amidst the lockdowns in China. The effect the lockdowns have had on the macro economy have been big, this price fall comes despite the warnings of production problems. There is currently a production problem with crude oil worldwide. April saw Russia’s production fall by almost 1 million barrels. The problems in the supply chains, the war and the lockdowns in China are all causing huge market volatility. Brent Crude Oil Price Chart   Read next: Gold (XAUUSD) Prices Fall As U.S Yields Rise, Wheat Prices Facing Pressure, Palladium Prices In Recovery! - Commodities Today.   Silver Prices struggling to fight against the current US Dollar rally. After seeing a dip in price on Monday, the price of silver futures seem to be somewhat recovering. One of the dominant drivers of the silver price is investor demand, seeing as it is considered a safe-haven asset that is mainly used by manufacturers of goods. The US Dollar continued to rally this past week, which is increasing the opportunity cost of holding silver, driving demand and prices down. Silver Futures Price Chart Corn Future Prices expected to stay elevated. The price of corn futures saw large increases earlier this week, this comes as a result of the poor harvest in Latin America for this season, and war in the Ukraine putting pressure on supply chains and supply. Corn is up by 37% year-to-date. The prices are expected to stay elevated for some time to come. Corn Futures Price Chart   Read next: Exxon and Chevron Earnings Announcements Has Little Effect on Brent Crude Oil Prices, Bullish Market Sentiment For Cotton and Gold Prices Rise Again    Sources: finance.yahoo.com
Chile's Lithium Nationalization and the Global Trend of Resource Nationalism: Implications for EV Supply Chains and Efforts to Strengthen Battery Metal Supply

Cotton Prices Reach Highest Prices In Almost 11 Years, Copper Prices Facing Negative Outlook and EU Announces 6 Month Plan To Phase Out Russian Crude Oil Imports.

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 04.05.2022 12:40
Summary: The factors affecting the cotton price. The price of copper has been affected largely by the current market environment. EU to cut off Russian energy demand. Read next:Brent Crude Oil Price Continues To Dive, Silver Struggling To Hold Its Price Position & Corn Prices Soaring.  The Cotton supply is under pressure, driving prices upwards Over the past week, cotton prices have seen a surge in prices. The futures for this commodity reached their highest prices since 2011. The price surge is related mainly to adverse weather conditions, droughts in the U.S. being a major factor. The lockdown in China has not decreased demand from the U.S. to China. The demand for cotton has also been impacted by rising energy prices as the price of materials derived from oil has risen. Jul ‘22 Cotton Futures Price Chart Copper prices continue to fall amidst market conditions Copper has lost major ground on the commodity market in the past week, this comes as a result of the extended lockdowns in China, the interest rate hike announcements and a continually strengthening US Dollar. On Monday Copper closed at close to neutral for the first time since May 2020. The continuing adverse market conditions will continue to cause Copper prices to struggle. Jul ‘22 Copper Futures Price Chart Natural Gas Prices Soar The price of Natural Gas has rallied over the past week. On Wednesday the EU announced their plans to phase out importing Russian Crude Oil and other energy imports within 6 months. The Natural Gas Prices are soaring amidst fears that it will be difficult to replace the Russian supply effectively. Jun ‘22 Natural Gas Price Chart Read next: Gold (XAUUSD) Prices Fall As U.S Yields Rise, Wheat Prices Facing Pressure, Palladium Prices In Recovery! - Commodities Today.  Sources: finance.yahoo.com
US and European Equity Futures Mixed Amid Economic Concerns and Yield Surge

Soybean Prices Reached Almost Record Prices, Platinum Investors Turning To New Suppliers, Copper Prices Struggling To Recover.

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 05.05.2022 14:01
Summary: Soybean prices continue to show volatility as concerns around supply continue. Platinum prices are still trying to find a pattern. Copper demand drops with China in lockdown.   Read next: Cotton Prices Reach Highest Prices In Almost 11 Years, Copper Prices Facing Negative Outlook and EU Announces 6 Month Plan To Phase Out Russian Crude Oil Imports.    Soybean prices have been soaring the past month. Over the past month we have seen the price of soybean futures rise to almost record highs. The Soybean commodity is under price pressure as a secondary backlash from the war between Russia and the Ukraine along with adverse weather conditions in Latin America and supply chain issues around the world. Since the start of the pandemic, the price of Soybean futures have doubled. There is a strong demand for soybean in the form of oil and feed for cattle all over the world, with Latin America being one of the worlds largest suppliers and is experiencing a poor harvest due to the poor weather conditions, the concerns around supply are growing, causing the prices to rise. Soybean Jul ‘22 Price Chart Platinum prices affected by lockdowns in China. Platinum prices dipped in the previous trading week as a result of concerns around demand with the lockdowns in China. Since then the prices have been on the rise again as the market seems to be somewhat stabilising. As economic sanctions on Russia continue, importers are turning to new sources of Platinum such as South Africa, concerns around supply remain the main factor driving the price of platinum. Platinum Jul ‘22 Price Chart Copper price dip amidst lockdown in China. Since China imposed further lockdowns in the country, the concerns around demand and supply faded for the metals futures. This created a fall in the price as the decreasing demand could take some pressure off some of the supply chain issues. China is responsible for almost half of the world's copper consumption, therefore the lockdowns had a big impact on the price of this precious metal. Copper Jul ‘22 Futures   Read next: Brent Crude Oil Price Continues To Dive, Silver Struggling To Hold Its Price Position & Corn Prices Soaring.   Sources: finance.yahoo.com, capital.com, wsj.com
Coffee: Brazil And Columbia Are Reducing The Production

(XAUUSD) Gold, Coffee and Crude Oil - Commodities Facing Price Trouble Over the Past Month

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 06.05.2022 12:28
Summary: In general most commodities apart from crude oil have seen a fall over the past month. Crude Oil Supply facing huge pressure.   Read next: Soybean Prices Reached Almost Record Prices, Platinum Investors Turning To New Suppliers, Copper Prices Struggling To Recover.    Coffee Futures Price Falling Over the past month the price of coffee futures have been falling consistently. The harvest at the world's largest producer in Brazil has been picking up as more fields are becoming ready to harvest. The harvest pushes supply into the market, driving the price down. However, coffee prices are still higher than those seen in 2021. Coffee Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold futures fare well today despite falling over the past month. Despite the increase in the price of gold since the market opened this morning, the price has been falling over the past month. The hawkish Fed increasing the U.S yields week-over-week has resulted in a negative outlook overall for the price of Gold. Gold is seen as a safe-haven asset and is used as a hedge against inflation, when the Fed pushes up the yields, the opportunity cost of holding Gold increases, driving investors to sell their Gold investment and instead turn to government bonds. This drives the price of gold down. In the past days gold has fared well against the Feds recent yield raise and has seen an increase of almost 0.4%. Gold Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Crude Oil prices continue to increase. The price of crude oil futures have been showing a steady upward trend. As global stockpiles of crude decrease, the concerns around demand have become more worrisome. Crude prices are surging as supply falls and demand is starting to increase back to pre-pandemic levels. Washington released a large number of their crude oil reserves in an attempt to control the price, however, the price continues to rise and will likely continue on this path. Crude oil Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart   Read next: Cotton Prices Reach Highest Prices In Almost 11 Years, Copper Prices Facing Negative Outlook and EU Announces 6 Month Plan To Phase Out Russian Crude Oil Imports    Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
OPEC+ Are Expected To Keeping Oil Production Unchanged, AUD/USD Trades At Its Highest Levels

Prices Of Brent Crude Oil And Silver Fall As The US Dollar Strengthening, Corn Prices Face Downward Price Pressure.

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 09.05.2022 15:35
Summary: Brent crude oil prices are seeing some decline. Silver prices face downward pressure amidst the US Dollar Strengthening. Corn prices fall amidst worries about falling demand. Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold, Coffee and Crude Oil - Commodities Facing Price Trouble Over the Past Month  Brent crude oil price falls. The price of oil has fallen on Monday amidst concerns around the strengthening US Dollar which hit a two-decade high, making holding oil more expensive for other currencies. The lockdowns in China have raised concerns around the demand for oil from the world's biggest importer. In addition the world's biggest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, lowered the prices of crude for Europe and Asia in June. All of these factors have resulted in the price of Brent Crude Oil falling. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart   Read next: What Is (DYDX)? dYdX Cryptocurrency Supporting Perpetual Trading - Altcoins of Interest | FXMAG.COM    As US yields increase, silver's value falls. The price of silver has been falling over the past week. The price fall comes as the Fed continues with their hawkish attitude. Silver is used as a hedge against inflation, with the Fed increasing the US yields in an attempt to fight inflation, the opportunity cost for holding silver increases. Investors are selling their silver and turning to investments where they can yield a higher return at the same level of risk i.e. US treasury bonds. Silver Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn prices facing downward price pressure. On monday the price of Corn futures had fallen by almost 1%, there has been a downward price trend for corn futures over the past week. There are still concerns around the lack of supply for corn all over the world, however, with the lockdowns in China, concerns around falling demand have risen. Last week the amount of traders who shorted corn outweighed those who chose to go long, indicating they expected the price to drop. Corn Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: Soybean Prices Reached Almost Record Prices, Platinum Investors Turning To New Suppliers, Copper Prices Struggling To Recover.  Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, cnbc.com, reuters.com, barchart.com
(XAUUSD) Gold Prices Remain Stable Despite Hawkish Fed, EU Regains Control Of Their NGAS Supplies, Cotton Futures Prices.

(XAUUSD) Gold Prices Remain Stable Despite Hawkish Fed, EU Regains Control Of Their NGAS Supplies, Cotton Futures Prices.

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 10.05.2022 13:13
Summary: The EU refills their NGAS stockpiles, driving the price of NGAS Futures down. Cotton Prices falling despite concerns around supply. Gold Prices remain surprisingly stable despite interest rate hikes   Read next: Prices Of Brent Crude Oil And Silver Fall As The US Dollar Strengthening, Corn Prices Face Downward Price Pressure.    Natural Gas Futures Prices Drop Towards the end of last week the price of Natural Gas soared, however tumbled around 13% during the trading day on Monday as a change in output and expected demand occurred as a result of the changing weather forecast. In addition the EU gas pipes were reported to be filling as gas piles into the pipes from Russian Sources which caused EU prices to stabilise. The change in the price is likely to continue in the short term thanks to the fundamental factors mentioned above, however with the EU’s recent oil embargo, whether or not this downward trend will continue is unlikely. It is also important to note that the stock market experienced a sour trading day on monday, causing prices across all markets to fall. NGAS Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton futures tank. Cotton futures saw a price dip during last week's trading week and earlier this week, however, prices seemed to have gained slightly on Tuesday. The price fall on Monday followed the trend of the wider global market which experienced a sour trading day on Monday. Prices are still soaring at high levels, due to the concerns around supply without wavering demand, and the possibility of an export ban by India is causing unrest around the commodity. Cotton Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold Futures remaining surprisingly stable (XAUUSD) Along with the rest of the global market, the price of gold dropped during the trading day on Monday. In addition the price of gold has been declining over the past days, this comes as the Fed grows more hawkish in their fight against inflation. The decline is not as sharp as market participants expected, this could be because investors are hedging their bets as the market awaits the U.S CPI report due on Wednesday. XAUUSD Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart   Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold, Coffee and Crude Oil - Commodities Facing Price Trouble Over the Past Month    Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, asia.nikkei.com
Coffee: Brazil And Columbia Are Reducing The Production

Don't Worry Coffee Lovers! The Price Of Coffee Futures Falling Amidst Current Market Conditions, Crude Oil (WTI) Recovers Slightly, Palladium Prices Show Steady Downward Price Trend

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 11.05.2022 14:56
Summary: Coffee futures are struggling to remain stable amidst the current market conditions. Crude oil prices could rise after poor performance this past week. Increased import tariffs on Russian Palladium to the U.K should drive the price up. Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold Prices Remain Stable Despite Hawkish Fed, EU Regains Control Of Their NGAS Supplies, Cotton Futures Prices.  Weather relief in major producing regions drives the price of coffee futures down. Coffee futures have been falling over the past week or so. The price fall comes as a result of the strengthening US Dollar and weakening Brazilian real is pushing prices down, the relief of dry weather conditions is also a bearish signal for coffee futures prices. The demand for coffee is also under pressure with the lockdowns in China continuing, and the war between Russia and the Ukraine causing demand in these two regions to fall. The market has been in a slump this week which could be another reason for the price to fall. There are still concerns around supply of coffee worldwide, a possible cause of the almost 3% increase the future has seen today. Coffee Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Crude Oil WTI increases today after poor performance within the past week The price of Crude Oil Futures have been following the market trend this past week, dropping to below $100. The rise today comes as concerns around supply in the wake of the European Union Oil embargo on Russia increase. Oil producers warned of their concerns around not being able to fill the oil gap when demand returns back to normal levels. WTI Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Palladium prices show steady downward price trend Palladium prices are falling with the current market sentiment, the prices rebounded slightly after the U.K announced the increase in the tariff on Palladium imports from Russia. This move will cause further Palladium supply issues, however, the price is still falling. Palladium Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: Prices Of Brent Crude Oil And Silver Fall As The US Dollar Strengthening, Corn Prices Face Downward Price Pressure.  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, barchart.com
Russia Look Set To Double Its Exports For The First Half Of 2023

The Commodity Market Felt The Effect Of The Poor Market Conditions This Week - Wheat Futures, Platinum Futures & RBOB Gasoline Futures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 12.05.2022 12:34
Summary: The future of the Wheat futures prices depend on the supply available as adverse weather conditions and geopolitical tensions continue. As embargos on Russia intensify, Platinum futures prices rise. Read next: Don't Worry Coffee Lovers! The Price Of Coffee Futures Falling Amidst Current Market Conditions, Crude Oil (WTI) Recovers Slightly, Palladium Prices Show Steady Downward Price Trend  Wheat Futures On Monday the price of Chicago Wheat Futures dropped, this came in the wake of the poor performance of the global markets. Since Monday the price of wheat futures have been recovering steadily. There are concerns around the market supply of wheat going forward, with Russia and The Ukraine exports decreasing due to the war, and the possibility of India reducing their exports amidst the heatwave causing their production to reduce. As concerns around supply and demand and weather conditions continue, we are likely to see volatility in the price of Wheat Futures. SRW Wheat Futures Jul ‘22 Price Chart Platinum prices rise amidst concerns over supply. Platinum futures prices seem to be recovering after hitting their one-week low on May 9th. The recovery comes as worries around Russian supply are renewed. The U.K announced GBP1.4 billion worth of import restrictions from Russia and a 35% increase in import tariffs on multiple products, including platinum. Hence, pushing prices up. Platinum Jul ‘22 Futures RBOB Gasoline prices The price of RBOB gasoline futures, along with wheat futures and platinum futures have felt the effects of the poor market conditions this week. However, the price of RBOB gasoline is likely to continue to show bullish signals going forward, this will come as a result of the increasing concerns around supply. RBOB Gasoline Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold Prices Remain Stable Despite Hawkish Fed, EU Regains Control Of Their NGAS Supplies, Cotton Futures Prices.  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta Opinion About Gold Movements

(XAUUSD) Gold Prices Rise In The Wake Of Concerns Around U.S Economic Slowdown, Crude Oil Prices Rally In Response To Increasing Demand And Concerns Around Supply, Cotton Prices

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 20.05.2022 17:01
Summary: The post-covid world and the war in the Ukraine caused Crude Oil to rally. Gold futures are on the rise amidst concerns around economic slowdown of the US economy. Cotton prices fall marginally despite concerns around increasing demand and tightening supply. Read next: The UN Is Stepping In To Help Wheat Exports, Platinum Prices Experiencing Volatility and The West Turns To Asia For RBOB Gasoline Supply  XAUUSD Gold prices rally Gold prices pushed up past $1.830 on Friday, the gain comes in the wake of the softening U.S economic data amid the hawkish Federal Reserve and its continuing aggressive monetary policy. The soft economic data has raised concerns around economic growth. The hawkish Fed will continue to hike interest rates despite fears of economic slowdown which is causing the US Dollar to weaken and pushing treasury yields lower. Investors are turning to gold as a hedge against the growth concerns, ultimately driving the gold price up. Gold Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart WTI Crude Futures Crude Oil Futures pushed above $112 on Friday amidst concerns around demands returning to a normal level as China eases their COVID-19 lockdowns and the embargo in Russian oil looming simultaneously occurring as fears of economic slowdown heighten. The post-covid world is seeing average driving mileage increasing in the U.S causing an increase in demand, as well as the EU pushing the ban on Russian oil to be certain by the end of the month. Crude Oil Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton futures Cotton futures prices have faced downward momentum over the past week. However, the prices are still high, the raised prices come in the wake of rising demand and tightening supplies. Cotton Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: More Expensive Coffee!? Weather Conditions In South America Can Limit Crops. (WTI) Crude Oil Price Recovering, Palladium Prices Rise Amidst Concerns Around Supply  Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
Russia's Active Production Cuts Could Be Grounds For A Bullish Shock

Demand For Brent Crude Oil Rises, Silver Prices Rise, Improved Corn Crop Eases Supply Concerns

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 23.05.2022 11:11
Summary: Brent crude oil prices are rising in response to increasing demand. Silver prices are rising again. Improved weather conditions is leaving the market hopeful for an improved corn crop. Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold Prices Rise In The Wake Of Concerns Around U.S Economic Slowdown, Crude Oil Prices Rally In Response To Increasing Demand And Concerns Around Supply, Cotton Prices  Brent Crude Oil prices rising With the expected increase in demand for Brent crude oil in both the United States and in China's post-lockdown world, the price of Brent crude oil is rising. U.S gasoline and fuel prices remain at a record high level as the busiest driving season approaches. The market expects the demand for Brent crude to increase with the easing of lockdowns in China, causing further concerns around supply in an already tight market. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Silver prices rise again. A weakening US Dollar has aided in the rising price of Silver. Silver is considered a safe asset and is commonly used as a hedge against inflation which is attractive in the current economic environment. In addition, the rise in the price of silver also comes with investor need for safe-haven assets with the geo-political tensions and the concerns around the slowing global growth. Silver Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn futures fall Late last week the price of corn futures fell, this came in the wake of investors buying wheat and selling corn in spread trades amidst signs of improved U.S corn crop planting. The improved corn planting is easing concerns around supply, driving the price lower. Corn Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: ECB Offering The Euro Support (EUR/USD), Strengthening Of The Renminbi Supporting The EUR and GBP, SNB Turns Hawkish (EUR/CHF) - Good Morning Forex!  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Chile's Lithium Nationalization and the Global Trend of Resource Nationalism: Implications for EV Supply Chains and Efforts to Strengthen Battery Metal Supply

XAUUSD Prices Rise As Investors Turn To Safer Assets, Cotton Prices, NGAS Prices Still Rising As Concerns Around Supply Continue

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 24.05.2022 11:29
Summary: Gold prices rose the past week in the wake of a weakening US Dollar. Concerns around cotton supply persist. NGAS prices are still rising as concerns around supply persist Read next: Demand For Brent Crude Oil Rises, Silver Prices Rise, Improved Corn Crop Eases Supply Concerns  Gold (XAAUSD) prices on the rise The US Dollar had a softer start to the week amidst concerns around a slowing economy and the possibility of a recession. On Tuesday U.S benchmark yields rose as equities rallied. Investors seem to be seeking safer investments such as gold as the market awaits the Fed Chairs comments on key economic data, such as, PCI and first quarter GDP. Therefore, the price of gold is rising. XAUUSD Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton futures prices Cotton prices dropped from their 11 year peak of $158 in early may. There are still concerns around supply as the droughts in Texas continue and global protected supply numbers are also falling, whilst demand is remaining stable in the post-covid world. Cotton Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Increased demand for NGAS is pushing up the price There is a higher international and domestic demand for Natural gas, which is driving the price of the NGAS futures up. The world is experiencing an energy shortage in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine. However, higher production and exports (especially in the US) should help limit the upward price momentum going forward. NGAS Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: ECB Offering The Euro Support (EUR/USD), Strengthening Of The Renminbi Supporting The EUR and GBP, SNB Turns Hawkish (EUR/CHF) - Good Morning Fore  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Securing Battery Metal Supply Chains: Challenges and Opportunities Amid the Global Energy Transition

Potential Frost Causing Concerns Around Coffee Supplies, Crude Oil Demand Is Expected To Rise, Palladium Price Falls Amidst Easing Concerns Around Supply And Demand

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 25.05.2022 16:05
Summary: Weather conditions could have an adverse effect on coffee crops. Expected demand for crude oil rises as supply grows tighter. Demand and supply concerns around Palladium are easing. Read next: XAUUSD Prices Rise As Investors Turn To Safer Assets, Cotton Prices, NGAS Prices Still Rising As Concerns Around Supply Continue  Coffee futures prices Coffee futures prices have been falling over the past week amidst easing concerns over the possibility of potentially crop damaging frost in Brazil. Last year the frost in Brazil damaged coffee crops and caused coffee prices to soar, which is keeping the market on edge during the upcoming winter season. Coffee Jul ‘22 Future Price Chart WTI Crude Oil futures prices rise As expected demand rises and supply grows weaker, the price of Crude oil rises. The new French minister said that those who are opposed to a new EU sanction on Russian oil imports could still be convinced. Further sanctions on Russian oil will tighten supplies further than they already are during a time where US demand is expected to rise as memorial day and the summer looms. WTI Crude Oil Jul Futures Price Chart Palladium futures prices decline in the wake of easing supply and demand concerns Concerns around palladium supplies along with demand are easing, causing the price to fall. Global demand is expected to rise by only 3% in 2022 as covid lockdowns and continuing supply chain bottlenecks will likely delay the chip supply recovery until at least 2023, undermining car production around the world. Palladium Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: Demand For Brent Crude Oil Rises, Silver Prices Rise, Improved Corn Crop Eases Supply Concerns  Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
Australia Is Expected To Produce A Bumper Year Of Crops

Easing Concerns Around Supply Drives The Price Of Both Wheat And Platinum Down, RBOB Gasoline Continues To Rise

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.05.2022 11:17
Summary: Platinum prices are falling with demand. Russia opens safe corridors for forign exports in the Ukraine. RBOB Gasoline prices continue to rise. Read next: Potential Frost Causing Concerns Around Coffee Supplies, Crude Oil Demand Is Expected To Rise, Palladium Price Falls Amidst Easing Concerns Around Supply And Demand  Platinum futures Platinum prices are well below their $1154 high that was hit in March of this year, the supply of platinum is rising whilst demand is struggling to recover. The lockdowns in China have slowed or stopped auto sector production causing the demand for platinum to fall, however, according to platinum's top supplier, Nornickel, the partial recovery of the global sector could offset the lower consumption in China. The market is expecting to see a surplus of Platinum at the end of the year. Platinum Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Easing supply concerns driving Wheat prices down As supply concerns ease, the price of wheat futures are falling. Russia said they would open safe corridors daily for forign ships to leave both Black Sea ports as well as Sea of Azov ports, which will allow commercial shipping to resume in the Ukraine after 3 months of fighting. In addition the Indian government announced an embargo on Wheat exports to try to guarantee food security and to discourage farmers from selling wheat on the private market at higher prices. Wheat Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline prices The prices of RBOB Gasoline have been rising amidst concerns around supply and the expected increasing demand. US President Joe Biden may limit US Gasoline exports in an attempt to decrease the prices in the US. RBOB Gasoline Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: XAUUSD Prices Rise As Investors Turn To Safer Assets, Cotton Prices, NGAS Prices Still Rising As Concerns Around Supply Continue  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
The Gold Rally Is Continuing To Stall, This Could Be A Good Year For Crude Oil

(XAUUSD) Gold Prices Rose For Second Consecutive Week, Concerns Around Crude Oil Supply Continues To Drive Price, Soybean Prices Rising

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 27.05.2022 11:30
Summary: The potential for a dovish Fed later on in the year leaves investors seeking safety in gold. The EU is still trying to reach an agreement for the banning of Russian Crude. Tight Soybean supplies. Read next: Easing Concerns Around Supply Drives The Price Of Both Wheat And Platinum Down, RBOB Gasoline Continues To Rise   XAUUSD futures rise Gold rose further on Friday as it hit its second consecutive weekly gain, the strength in Gold comes in the wake of a weakening US Dollar. The chances of the Federal Reserve Bank easing monetary policy later on in the year has left investors seeking gold as a hedge against future inflation, driving the price of gold up. XAUUSD Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Crude Oil prices continue to rise amidst supply concerns The price of Crude Oil traded above $114 per barrel on Friday. The past week for Crude has seen prices consistently rising amidst concerns over global supply. On Wednesday the EIA released data indicating that the US Crude inventories were lower than expected due to rising exports. In addition the EU is trying to negotiate with Hungary on the implementation of an oil embargo on Russia, with EU Council Charles Michel remaining confident that an agreement can be reached by May 30th. Crude Oil Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Soybean Futures rising Soybeans are facing a tight supply run at the moment, export demand is rising causing the price of soybeans to trade high. As the oil embargo in Indonesia is lited, a certain amount of soybean volume will be added to the domestic market. Soybean Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: Potential Frost Causing Concerns Around Coffee Supplies, Crude Oil Demand Is Expected To Rise, Palladium Price Falls Amidst Easing Concerns Around Supply And Demand  Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
Powell signals Fed needs to be nimble, Canada Inflation hits near 40-year high, bitcoin tries to hold USD20k

Some EU Governments Are Still In Favour Of Banning Russian Brent Crude Oil, Investors Turning To Silver As Demand For Safe-Haven Assets Rise, Corn Prices Fall Amidst Easing Supply Concers

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 30.05.2022 15:52
Summary: Lockdowns in China ease causing demand for Brent Crude to rise. Silver prices increase as market participants seek safe-haven assets. Supply concerns around corn are easing. read next (XAUUSD) Gold Prices Rose For Second Consecutive Week, Concerns Around Crude Oil Supply Continues To Drive Price, Soybean Prices Rising  Brent Crude Oil prices continue to rise The combination of Beijing and Shanghai beginning to come out of Covid-19 restrictions over the weekend and the ongoing European discussions regarding banning crude oil imports from Russia are causing concerns around supply to tighten. On Monday and Tuesday an EU governments will use a summit to continue to argue in favour of an embargo on Russian crude. The prices of Crude oil are going into their sixth straight month of gains amidst the supply concerns, as demand begins to rise back up to pre-pandemic levels. Brent Crude Oil Price Chart Silver prices are still on the rise A weaker US Dollar continues to give room for the price of silver to rise. Amidst continuing geopolitical tensions and growing concerns regarding slower global growth, investors are turning more towards safe-haven assets. Silver is considered to be a hedge against inflation, the Fed is still expected to tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates further at their next two meetings. Silver Jul ‘22 Futures Prices Corn prices are falling The price of corn futures fell late in May, to the lowest value in almost six weeks amidst expectations of higher supply and the easing of trading restrictions between major producers. Beijing and Brazil reached an agreement to begin corn exports from Brazil to China, after years of talks. In addition, actual planting of corn exceeded market expectations. The easing of supply concerns is slowly driving the price of corn futures down. Corn Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Chile's Lithium Nationalization and the Global Trend of Resource Nationalism: Implications for EV Supply Chains and Efforts to Strengthen Battery Metal Supply

XAUUSD Prices Fall As The US Dollar Rebounds, Inflationary Pressures Driving Cotton Demand Down, NGAS Price Rising

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 31.05.2022 12:29
Summary: The US Dollar’s rebound and stronger treasury yields have caused the price of gold to fall. Cotton prices are falling due to decreasing demand and improved supplies. NGAS on the rise again. Read next: Some EU Governments Are Still In Favour Of Banning Russian Brent Crude Oil, Investors Turning To Silver As Demand For Safe-Haven Assets Rise, Corn Prices Fall Amidst Easing Supply   XAUUSD price coming down off its recent recovery Gold prices began to rise late last week and on Monday, however, on Tuesday Gold prices fell in the wake of the US Dollar rebounding and stronger US Treasury yields. Gold has recovered some of the losses it faced earlier on in May due to the surging US Dollar. Concerns around a global recession and the chance of the Fed slowing or even stopping tightening monetary policy later on in the year has offered the precious metal some support. Gold Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton prices falling due to lessening supply concerns Cotton prices are trading around 10% less than their May high, this is due to the prospect of higher supplies thanks to favourable weather in the largest growing regions. More than half of the crop had been planted by May 22nd and was ahead of schedule by this time, therefore offering hope for solid yields. In conjunction, demand for cotton seems to be weakening amidst inflationary pressures. Cotton Jul’22 Futures Price Chart Natural Gas Futures prices Natural Gas prices continue to rise, reaching closer to the peak hit last week. The near 14 year high for Natural Gas came with increased demand and concerns around supply, the price fluctuations are due to decreased demand as the weather changes, robust demand and slow output. NGAS Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: Strong Investor Sentiment Toward The Euro Continues (EUR/USD), EUR/GBP Currency Pair, As China Ease Lockdowns The AUD Outlook Seems Positive (GBP/AUD, AUD/USD)  Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
What Did Support GDP? | Should Eurozone Worry!? Energy Prices May Weaken Production

EU Reaches An Agreement On The Banning Of Russian Crude Oil, Coffee Prices Rise, Palladium Prices Decline Along With Supply Concerns

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 01.06.2022 13:30
Summary: Crude Oil prices rise for sixth consecutive month. Coffee prices rise amidst supply concerns. Palladium prices fall along with demand Read next: XAUUSD Prices Fall As The US Dollar Rebounds, Inflationary Pressures Driving Cotton Demand Down, NGAS Price Rising  WTI Crude oil prices rise WTI Crude Oil enters the month of June going on their sixth consecutive month seeing price gains. The most recent gain comes in the wake of China’s easing of Covid-19 lockdown restrictions and the European Union's decision to partially ban Russian crude oil imports. The European Union has finally reached an agreement on the banning of Russian oil imports, the current decision ended with pipeline imports being allowed but seaborne imports being banned. This will cause some issues around supply, however, this most recent ban could pave the way for other crude oil producers to pump more crude into the markets. WTI Crude Oil Price Chart Coffee futures prices rising Coffee futures are trading at their highest price since mid April amidst a strong outlook for dryer conditions for the top producer in Brazil. The market has fears around a lower production in Brazil due to the continuation of La Niña, which reduces rainfall in Central-America. In addition, Colombian coffee exports slipped by 18% year to year. There were also signs pointing towards smaller global coffee supplies falling by 0.1%. Coffee Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Palladium Futures Palladium prices have fallen by almost 40% below their all time high of $3180 the reduction in price comes from a fall in concerns around supply and demand remains low. Global palladium demand is expected to increase by only 3% in 2022 as covid lockdowns and continuing supply chain bottlenecks will likely delay a recover in the chip supply until 2023 at the very least, undermining car production around the world.   Palladium Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: (HPQ) HP Inc. Earnings Beat Market Expectations  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Australia Is Expected To Produce A Bumper Year Of Crops

Wheat Prices Enter June On A Four Week Low Platinum Prices Rising Again, RBOB Gasoline Prices Reach New High

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 02.06.2022 12:56
Summary: Wheat prices dropping as supply concerns ease. As China begins to lift covid-19 restrictions, demand for platinum is rising. RBOB gasoline prices rally in the wake of EU oil embargo. Read next: EU Reaches An Agreement On The Banning Of Russian Crude Oil, Coffee Prices Rise, Palladium Prices Decline Along With Supply Concerns  Wheat prices reach their lowest in four weeks Chicago wheat futures reached their lowest in four weeks on Thursday, as commodity traders carefully monitor the possible maritime trade corridors for Ukrainian wheat and fertilizers. The Russian president, Putin said that Russia was willing to open safe corridors to allow foreign ships to leave the both the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov ports, which would allow commercial shipping of Ukrainian grains after three months of war in the country, should western countries lift sanctions. In the United States there are higher projections for wheat in the future and in addition, the wheat prices remain supported thanks to India’s decision to impose a wheat embargo in an attempt to guarantee food security. Chicago Wheat Futures Price Chart Platinum Prices increased As China begins to re-open their economy after their covid-19 lockdown restrictions, the demand for platinum is increasing. Although the global outlook for metal use in car manufacturing will decline overall in 2022, concerns around supply and demand are still driving the price fluctuations of Platinum. Platinum Futures Price Chart RBOB gasoline RBOB Gasoline prices have risen to a new high at the start of the summer season. The latest rally comes in the wake of the European Union implementing a ban of seaborne oil imports from Russia, creating further concerns around supplies. RBOB Gasoline Futures Price Chart Read next: XAUUSD Prices Fall As The US Dollar Rebounds, Inflationary Pressures Driving Cotton Demand Down, NGAS Price Rising  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
The Gold Rally Is Continuing To Stall, This Could Be A Good Year For Crude Oil

Demand For Safe-haven Assets Sends Gold Prices Rising, Saudi Arabia Indicates Plans To Increase Their Oil Output, Soybean Prices Are Volatile

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 03.06.2022 12:37
Summary: On Friday the price of gold neared its one month high. Crude oil prices have jumped up and down over the past week. Supply may increase to meet demand. Read next: Wheat Prices Enter June On A Four Week Low Platinum Prices Rising Again, RBOB Gasoline Prices Reach New High  Gold prices rise again On Friday the price of gold neared its one month high. The price of gold has been elevated by the weakness of the US Dollar, putting gold on track for its third weekly gain. The dollar weakened overnight in the wake of data that showed US payroll rose less than expected in May. Therefore, U.S Dollar backed gold became more attractive to overseas buyers. The current geopolitical tensions and the chances of the global economy falling into a recession also increased demand for the safe-haven asset. XAUUSD Price Chart WTI Crude Oil prices. Crude oil prices have jumped up and down over the past week. The price has dropped slightly during trading on Friday in the wake of news that Saudi Arabia will increase its oil output. Saudi Arabia indicated to its allies in the West that it would increase its oil output to try to balance the fall the region is experiencing from its Russian oil embargo. WTI Crude Oil Price Chart Soybeans The price of soybeans have been volatile over the past two days. Late April saw Soybean prices hit record high prices amidst supply and demand concerns. A top palm oil producer based in Indonesia indicated that it would reinstate a requirement to allocate a certain amount to the domestic market as it lifts the most recent export embargo. However supply may increase to meet demand, however it will be tight. Soybeans Price Chart Read next: EU Reaches An Agreement On The Banning Of Russian Crude Oil, Coffee Prices Rise, Palladium Prices Decline Along With Supply Concerns  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, fxmag.com, tradingeconomics.com
Corn Prices Recorded Their Biggest Weekly Gain, Gold Demand In India May Suffer A Temporary Setback

Saudi Arabia Hike Brent Crude Oil Prices, Demand For Safe-haven Assets Is Supporting Silver Prices, Corn Prices At 8 Week Lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 06.06.2022 13:12
Summary: Saudi Arabia hiked their crude oil prices for July. Hopes of higher corn supplies thanks to hopeful USDA reports and easing trade restrictions between the major producers. Increased demand for Silver as a safe-haven asset drives the prices up. Read next: Saudi Arabia Indicates Plans To Increase Their Oil Output (EUR/USD), ECB Plans To Start Tightening Monetary Policy Still Set For July (EUR/GBP), (USD/JPY, USD/CHF)  Brent Crude oil prices surge as Saudi Arabia Increase prices On Monday Saudi Arabia hiked their crude oil prices for July, driving the price of Brent crude oil up to almost $121 per barrel. This move tightened global supplies even after OPEC+ agreed to increase its output at a faster pace in the coming months. The premium for the barrels heading to the U.S remained steady, whilst the premiums for the barrels heading for Asia and Northwest European countries were raised by Saudi Arabia. Despite OPEC+ promises to increase its output by 50% than previously planned, there are still doubts around whether or not they can meet the demand as member countries are struggling to meet the demand. The price rise and the demand and supply concerns are happening in the peak of the U.S driving season and increased demand as China comes out of its Covid-19 lockdowns, and their economy starts again. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Silver prices rise again The price of silver reached the highest in a month, this comes in the wake of increased demand for the safe-haven asset. The increased demand is being caused by continuing geopolitical tensions, inflation and persistent concerns around slowing global growth. Silver Jul ‘22 Price Chart Corn prices low Corn futures are trading at eight week lows on Monday amidst strong hopes of higher supplies thanks to hopeful USDA reports and easing trade restrictions between the major producers. With planting progress strong and expectations for exports to resume from the Ukraine, prices are dropping. In addition, Brazil and Beijing came to a conclusion regarding beginning exports from Brazil to China. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
(XAUUSD) Gold Should Be Bullish, NGAS Reaches Highest Price Since August 2008, Cotton Crop Planting Is Ahead Of Schedule

(XAUUSD) Gold Should Be Bullish, NGAS Reaches Highest Price Since August 2008, Cotton Crop Planting Is Ahead Of Schedule

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 07.06.2022 13:41
Summary: Gold prices rising amidst market uncertainty. Natural gas futures rose to their highest price since August 2008. Demand for cotton is softening due to inflationary pressures and rising prices. Read next: Saudi Arabia Hike Brent Crude Oil Prices, Demand For Safe-haven Assets Is Supporting Silver Prices, Corn Prices At 8 Week Low  XAUUSD expected to rise Gold prices rose during early trading on Tuesday, this rally is expected to last as projections of an economic slowdown pave the way for higher gold prices. A strong mix of talks of a global recession, decades-high inflation and geopolitical tensions should increase the demand for gold due to its safe-haven properties. The rise in gold comes after two days of declining prices thanks to a stronger US Dollar and rising treasury yields. XAUUSD Price Chart Natural Gas facing declining production On Tuesday Natural gas futures rose to their highest price since August 2008, this comes in the wake of higher international demand and declining production. As the northern hemisphere goes into summer, the need for cooling has strengthened which has been a driver for rising prices in the short term. On a global scale, the war in the Ukraine has caused a global energy shortage. The European Union is calling on the U.S to increase their exports to Europe to help lessen the region's reliance on Russian gas. NGAS Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Demand for Cotton softens Cotton prices have fallen amidst hopes of higher supplies due to favourable weather conditions in the top growing regions. Cotton crop planting is ahead of schedule giving hope around strengthening yields. In addition, it seems that demand for cotton is softening due to inflationary pressures and rising prices. Cotton Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
What Did Support GDP? | Should Eurozone Worry!? Energy Prices May Weaken Production

Coffee Supplies Remain Tight, Supply and Demand Concerns Are Easing For Palladium , WTI Crude Oil Nearing March High

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 08.06.2022 13:39
Summary: Markets await the US crude inventory report. Disappointing Brazilian coffee supplies. Expectations that the palladium market will close in balance at the end of 2022 Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold Should Be Bullish, NGAS Reaches Highest Price Since August 2008, Cotton Crop Planting Is Ahead Of Schedule  WTI Crude Oil prices rising as supplies tighten further On Wednesday, WTI Crude oil futures prices are nearing the near 14 year high that was hit in March, this price rise comes in the wake of expected increase in demand as China comes out of lockdowns, tight global supplies and the summer driving season in the US. The markets are also awaiting a report that will indicate the official US crude inventories, which is expected to have fallen, highlighting the tightness in crude supplies, globally. The CEO of global commodities trader, Trafigura said that the energy markets were in a “critical” state due to sanctions placed on Russian oil inlight of their invasion of the Ukraine which has just built on already tight supplies which were created by years of under-investment. WTI Crude Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Coffee prices volatile amidst changing supply and demand concerns Coffee futures prices hit a peak on June 1st amidst general real strength and concerns over tight supplies. Coffee dealers indicated to traders that the market is well supported by limited flow from Brazil and Central America, the top Brazilian grower lagging on its historical average. The concerns around coffee supplies and demand are driving the futures prices. Coffee Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Palladium prices are normalising Palladium prices have been falling consistently over the past week due to easing concerns around both demand and supply. The world's largest palladium producer, Nornickel, expects the palladium market to close in balance at the end of 2022. The company also promised they would continue producing in order to meet its obligations, despite logistic obstacles. In addition, global supply demand is expected to increase by only 3% in 2022 as Covid-19 lockdowns and continuing supply chain bottlenecks will likely delay recovery of chip supplies until at least 2023, thus undermining car production. Palladium Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Russia Look Set To Double Its Exports For The First Half Of 2023

Concerns Around Increasing Demand and Tightening Supply For Platinum, RBOB Gasoline, West Is Unlikely To Ease Sanctions On Russia Causing Wheat Supply Concerns Persist

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 09.06.2022 11:39
Summary: Sanctions on Russia and protests in South Africa are causing problems for platinum exports. As shortage concerns continue, the price of wheat futures continue to rise. Read next: Coffee Supplies Remain Tight, Supply and Demand Concerns Are Easing For Palladium , WTI Crude Oil Nearing March High  Platinum faces a future of tight supplies Platinum futures rose above $1000 per tonne during the trading week, the highest price in over 2 months. The price rise comes in the wake of concerns around tight supplies and the demand recovery for the biggest platinum consumer, China. China’s platinum consumption is due to increase as the government lifts most of the Covid-19 health restrictions in Shanghai and announced support measures to help boost the economy. In addition, supply chain issues are persisting as the war in Eastern Europe continues and more sanctions are being placed on Russia, the top exporter of platinum. South Africa’s production of platinum is also set to fall amidst risks of extended strikes, as workers continue to protest for wage-negotiations. Platinum Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart West unlikely to ease sanctions on Russia, wheat supply concerns persist As shortage concerns continue, the price of wheat futures continue to rise. The expectations of higher trading activity from Ukraine remained low as the west is unlikely to relax the sanctions on Russia, meaning Putin is unlikely to open Ukrainian ports and allow trade. Investors are remaining alert to any possible changes in India's export ban that was passed in May, following news that India’s government may allow exporters to ship some of the wheat that is currently stuck in cargos. Wheat Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline Prices of RBOB gasoline continue to rise as the concerns around energy supplies persist, globally. The continuing sanctions on Russia, is causing supply insecurity as the US enters into its summer driving season, driving demand up. RBOB Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold Should Be Bullish, NGAS Reaches Highest Price Since August 2008, Cotton Crop Planting Is Ahead Of Schedule  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Coffee: Brazil And Columbia Are Reducing The Production

(XAUUSD) Gold Prices Falling In The Run-Up To US Inflation Data Release, NGAS Prices Fall But Remain Elevated, Coffee Prices

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 10.06.2022 11:12
Summary: US inflation data should offer the market guidance on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike timeline. Natural gas futures prices dropped on Thursday as investors reacted positively to information from the EIA. Coffee futures prices remain supported by limited supplies and general real strength. Read next: Concerns Around Increasing Demand and Tightening Supply For Platinum, RBOB Gasoline, West Is Unlikely To Ease Sanctions On Russia Causing Wheat Supply Concerns Persist  (XAUUSD) Gold prices falling as US Dollar strengthens Gold futures prices eased on Friday in the wake of a strengthening US Dollar and rising Treasury yields weighed on the safe-havens appeal in the run-up to the release of US inflation data that should offer the market guidance on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike timeline. The Fed is set to implement two more 50 basis point interest rate hikes at both its June and July meetings, following a move similar to the one in May, which has recently put pressure on gold. Meanwhile, global economic outlook risks that have arisen from the war in the Ukraine, persisting supply chain disruptions, high commodity prices and rising borrowing costs are all factors that are offering gold prices support. XAUUSD Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart NGAS futures supported by rising demand and tight supplies Natural gas futures prices dropped on Thursday as investors reacted positively to information from the EIA showing that the natural gas storage is built primarily in line with expectations. NGAS prices faced heavy pressure earlier in the trading week after an explosion at the Freeport oil and gas export terminal in Texas, which is set to leave fuel supplies stranded in the domestic market despite the soaring international demand. Still, NGAS prices remained high this week amidst record demand for power in Texas, a fall in output and an intense rally for NGAS as Russia’s war on Ukraine sends energy markets scrambling. NGAS Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Coffee is supported by general real strength Coffee futures prices remain supported by limited supplies and general real strength. Coffee dealers indicated that the market remains well supported by a limited flow from both Central America and Brazil, with Brazil, who is the top harvester and grower, lagging their historical average. Coffee Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingecnomics.com  
India's RBI Keeps Repo Rate Unchanged Amid Tomato-Driven Inflation Surge

Brent Crude Oil Prices, Silver Prices Hit Lowest Price In Four Weeks, Corn Prices Rise Amid Supply Concerns

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 13.06.2022 12:48
Summary: Rising covid cases in China and 40-year high US Inflation. The global economic outlook remains dim due to the rising borrowing costs, the war in Ukraine, high commodity prices and ongoing supply disruptions. Failed talks between Russia and Ukraine puts corn supplies under pressure. Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold Prices Falling In The Run-Up To US Inflation Data Release, NGAS Prices Fall But Remain Elevated, Coffee Prices  Brent Crude prices fall for third session Brent crude oil futures prices have fallen on Monday for their third session as investors have been monitoring the covid situation in China and have remained concerned that rising inflation may hinder growth and negatively impact the demand for oil. Major cities in China are fighting rising covid-19 cases with officials warning of “ferocious” Covid spread in Beijing. In addition, U.S inflation hit a 40-year high of 8.6% last month, which increases the likelihood of more aggressive interest rate hikes from the FED. On Saturday US Fuel prices went above $5 per gallon, extending the surge in fuel costs that is driving rising inflation. Goldman Sachs indicated on Friday that energy prices needed to increase further before achieving a destruction in demand that is sufficient for market rebalancing. Brent Crude Oil Price Chart Silver prices reaches its lowest level in 4 weeks Investors' worries around the global economic outlook and a more hawkish attitude from the Federal Reserve have been strengthening, pushing silver prices down to its lowest level in four weeks. The global economic outlook remains dim due to the rising borrowing costs, the war in Ukraine, high commodity prices and ongoing supply disruptions. The Fed is due to continue tightening its monetary policy during the coming week after US inflation reached 41-year highs during May, in addition the ECB and RBA have also chosen a more hawkish path as inflation shows no signs of peaking. Silver Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn Prices rising amidst concerns around supply. Corn prices reached nearly eight week highs in the wake of new concerns around grain supplies. Talks failed between two of the major corn suppliers, Russia and the Ukraine around the resuming of Ukrainian exports despite the Turkish efforts to negotiate a safe passage for grain stuck at the Black Sea Ports. Russian President Putin said free shipment depended on an end to sanctions on Russia. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Declines At The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange, The Drop Leaders Were Nike Inc Shares

Gold (XAUUSD) Prices Are Falling, Expectations Of Cooling NGAS Demand, Cotton’s Demand Weakening

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 14.06.2022 11:32
Summary: Gold prices are under pressure from a rallying US Dollar. NGAS prices have dropped as expectations of cooling demand strengthened as the summer season approaches. Inflationary pressures and re-imposed Chinese lockdowns vs Cotton prices Read next: Brent Crude Oil Prices, Silver Prices Hit Lowest Price In Four Weeks, Corn Prices Rise Amid Supply Concerns  XAUUSD prices falling in the wake of broad market sell-off On Tuesday Gold futures are trading at around four-week lows after falling nearly 3% during Monday's trading session. Gold prices remain under pressure from a rallying US Dollar and Treasury yields as investors are bracing themselves for more aggressive monetary policy tightening from the Federal Reserve Bank. Aggressive interest rate hikes have also instilled fears of a recession in the US economy which drove further selling and forced liquidation across the financial markets, including with gold. XAUUSD Price Chart Natural Gas demand falling as the summer season approaches Natural gas prices dropped in the past two trading sessions in the wake of investors' expectations of cooling demand strengthened as the summer season approaches. In addition, a recent explosion at a major Texas LNG terminal has made room for more natural gas to enter the market, due to the facility being offline for at least another 3 weeks. The extra supply in the market could bridge the gap between the current inventory levels and the 5-year average, which has been one of the driving forces behind the quarters natural gas rally. NGAS Futures Price Chart Demand weakening for Cotton Cotton futures prices are trading near 2-month lows due to expectations of higher supply and weaker demand. Cotton demand is expected to decrease due to inflationary pressures and the largest consumer, China re-imposes covid-19 lockdowns. Cotton Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Oil Could Be Ready To Pop, The Bank Of England Market Pricing Is More Mixed

Coffee Prices Rising Amidst Tight Supply Concerns, WTI Oil Facing Its First Weekly Decline Since Mid-April, Platinum Prices At 6 Week Low

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 17.06.2022 16:01
Summary: WTI crude futures price dropped on Friday, heading for their first weekly decline since mid-April. Concerns around dryer weather conditions in certain areas of Brazil and smaller output in Columbia. Platinum prices reached their lowest in 6 weeks. Read next: Gold (XAUUSD) Prices Are Falling, Expectations Of Cooling NGAS Demand, Cotton’s Demand Weakening  WTI Oil prices declining in the wake of rising consumer prices WTI crude futures price dropped on Friday, heading for their first weekly decline since mid-April, in the wake of a highly uncertain outlook for global growth and fuel demand following numerous interest rate hikes around the world this week that took a toll on the markets. The International Energy Agency warned on Wednesday that the combination of soaring energy prices and weakening economic forecasts dimmed the outlook for future demand. In addition, investors watched the supply tightness for WTI crude after the US announced sanctions on Iran. This added to concerns around production shortfalls among OPEC members and disruptions caused by unrest in Libya and Russia’s war in Ukraine.   WTI Oil Price Chart Concerns around coffee supplies. Coffee prices rose amidst concerns around tight supplies in Brazil and a softer dollar. Brazil is behind on their coffee harvest, having harvested only 28% as of June 14th. In addition, there were also concerns around dryer weather conditions in certain areas of Brazil and smaller output in Columbia. Coffee Futures Price Chart Platinum demand remains subdued Platinum prices reached their lowest in 6 weeks on Friday in the wake of rising US treasury yields which followed higher than expected US CPI inflation data, driving the demand for platinum lower. In addition the demand for the metal is expected to remain low from top consumer China as it re-imposed Covid-19 restrictions, just weeks after easing in major cities as the country saw a fresh outburst of new infections. Platinum Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Analysis Of Situation Of Crude Oil Futures And WTI

Brent Crude Oil Prices At 5 Week Lows, Silver Prices Affected By Aggressive Monetary Policy, New Concerns Around Corn Supplies

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 20.06.2022 11:50
Summary: The international oil benchmark fell around 6% on Friday. Silver fell below the $22 per-ounce mark on Friday, closing at its lowest level since June 2020. Failed negotiations between Russia and the Ukraine. Read next: Coffee Prices Rising Amidst Tight Supply Concerns, WTI Oil Facing Its First Weekly Decline Since Mid-April, Platinum Prices At 6 Week Low  Brent Crude Oil prices remain supported Brent Crude Oil prices fell to almost 5 week lows on Monday amidst concerns around slowing global economic growth and fuel demand which outweighed expectations of higher near-term consumption and ongoing supply issues. The international oil benchmark fell around 6% on Friday amidst concerns of global economic fallouts from higher interest rates shook financial markets. U.S Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm warned markets of a “continued upward pull on demand” over the weekend, and of the likelihood of high gasoline prices continuing. Crude prices have been supported by the war in the Ukraine, civil unrest in Libya and OPEC’s failure to pump more oil. Brent Crude Oil Price Chart Silver prices close below $22 per-ounce Silver fell below the $22 per-ounce mark on Friday, closing at its lowest level since June 2020, in the wake of bets of more aggressive monetary policy tightening by central banks steered investors away from the non-yield metal. Silver Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn prices rising amidst new concerns around supply Corn prices rose to 4 week highs in mid-June amidst new concerns around grain supplies. Talks between Russia and the Ukraine, two of the largest grain exporters, around resuming Ukrainian exports failed, despite Turkish efforts to negotiate a safe corridor for the grain stuck at Black Sea ports. Meanwhile, Brazil and Beijing reached an agreement after years of negotiation to start corn exports from Brazil to China. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta Opinion About Gold Movements

NGAS Futures Closed At Two Month Lows, Cotton Prices Falling, Global Wave Of Monetary Policy Tightening Puts Gold Prices under Pressure

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.06.2022 15:46
Summary: Natural gas futures prices are dropping. As the dollar strengthens and global monetary policy tightening continues, the price of gold remains under pressure. Cotton demand expected to decrease as supplies are set to increase. Read next: Brent Crude Oil Prices At 5 Week Lows, Silver Prices Affected By Aggressive Monetary Policy, New Concerns Around Corn Supplies  NGAS futures closed at two month lows Natural gas futures closed at their lowest level in two months in the wake of rising domestic inventories. Freeport LNG indicated that it did not expect the terminal to return to full operations until late 2022, however, partial operations could return within three months. The recent explosion at one of the largest US natural gas export terminals is keeping the US supplies, despite ever rising international demand, which is releasing the domestic price pressure. NGAS Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart   Gold prices falling amidst a wave of monetary policy tightening The price of gold remains under pressure from rising treasury yields and a strong US Dollar. Gold prices fell around 2% last week amidst a global wave of monetary tightening which aimed at bringing inflation down, the wave was led by the Federal Reserve's 75 basis point hike. The gold prices fell due to the fact that investors tend to shy away from the non-yielding metal as interest rates rise. Gold Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton demand weakens as supply rises Cotton futures were trading at almost 4 week lows on prospects of higher supplies and weaker demand. Demand for cotton is seemingly weakening across the world as inflationary pressures resume and as the world’s largest cotton consumer, China, re-enters into Covid-19 lockdowns. In addition, the production is due to increase in both Egypt and other West African countries, whilst demand is expected to drop from Vietnam, Mexico and Bangladesh. Cotton Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Supply Concerns Are Driving Coffee Prices Upwards, Palladium Demand Eroded By Hawkish Fed And Rallying USD, Hopes Of Gas Tax Holiday Strengthen

Supply Concerns Are Driving Coffee Prices Upwards, Palladium Demand Eroded By Hawkish Fed And Rallying USD, Hopes Of Gas Tax Holiday Strengthen

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 22.06.2022 13:07
Summary: Palladium Prices at 6 month lows. WTI Crude Prices falling. Brazil lagging their historical harvesting average. Read next: NGAS Futures Closed At Two Month Lows, Cotton Prices Falling, Global Wave Of Monetary Policy Tightening Puts Gold Prices under Pressure  WTI crude oil prices falling with demand expectations WTI crude oil futures fell almost 6% on Wednesday, hitting their lowest levels in almost a month amidst concerns that rising US interest rates that are aimed at controlling inflation levels could likely cause a recession and therefore a slowdown in demand. In addition, there are expectations that President Joe Biden will call for a gas tax holiday in an attempt to drive fuel prices down. However, there are still concerns around supply, with the Russian oil embargo due to the war in the Ukraine and OPEC unable to pump more oil due to underinvestment. WTI Crude Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart Coffee futures prices rising due to supply concerns Coffee prices were trading at their highest price since June 9th on Wednesday due to continuing concerns around tight supplies. The coffee prices remain supported by limited flows from Central America and Brazil, with Brazil (the top grower) behind its historical harvest average. In addition, one of Brazil’s largest growing areas is expected to see a drought. Coffee Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Palladium prices at 6 month lows Palladium is trading at its lowest price in 6 months on Wednesday, this price drop comes in the wake of the hawkish Fed’s 75 basis point interest rate hike and a sharp rally in the US Dollar both of which have kicked the demand for the metal. In addition, there are concerns around the demand for the metal from the top consumer, China as Covid-19 lockdowns are re-imposed. Palladium Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Commodities Update: Strong Russian Oil Flows to China and Volatility in European Gas Market

Demand Is Decreasing For Platinum, RBOB Gasoline, Supply Concerns Around Wheat Are Easing

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 23.06.2022 15:20
Summary: India may reintroduce wheat exports. Fresh lockdowns in China are weighing on metal demand Wheat prices drop as supply concerns ease Chicago wheat futures prices have been falling over the past week in the wake of news of an improved outlook as Russia produced a record-high amount of wheat. A higher supply from the world's top exporter eased shortage concerns amidst the European and North American harvesting season. In addition, India's food ministry said it may reintroduce wheat exports to Indonesia, however that is dependent on availability.   Wheat Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Platinum prices are declining with demand Platinum futures are down almost 20% from their 8-month high hit in March, as a stronger US Dollar and an aggressive Federal Reserve weakened the demand for Metals which in turn has weighed on Metal prices. In addition, vehicle production is expected to drop in the wake of aggressive monetary policy tightening and increased fears of slowing economic growth. Also, the lockdowns in China are weighing on the demand from the top consumer. Platinum Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline The price of gasoline has experienced volatility over the past week as concerns around supply continue to drive the price up whilst talks of President Joe Biden introducing a gas tax holiday are driving the prices down. RBOB Gasoline Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Gold Has A Chance For The Rejection Of The Support

Rising Interest Rates Are Inhibiting The Demand For Gold And Silver, Concerns Around A Recession Are Driving Brent Crude Oil Prices Down

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 24.06.2022 12:25
Summary: Aggressive central banks inhibiting metal demand. Fears of a slowing economy are sending brent crude oil into its second consecutive week of declines. Read next: Demand Is Decreasing For Platinum, RBOB Gasoline, Supply Concerns Around Wheat Are Easing  Demand for gold declining as interest rates rise Gold futures declined on Friday and were set to decline for their second consecutive week in the wake of stronger expectations that major central banks will continue to raise interest rates aggressively in an attempt to control inflation, which subdued the demand for metals. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell reiterates that his commitment to fighting 40-year high inflation is ‘unconditional.’ Gold is usually viewed as a hedge against inflation and as a safe-haven asset during times of economic crisis, however as interest rates rise, so too does the opportunity cost of holding gold. Gold Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart Brent Crude Oil facing second consecutive week of declines Brent Crude is on track to decline for the second straight week on Friday in the wake of concerns around aggressive monetary policy tightening and the effects it will have on the global economy and the demand for oil. US manufacturing and services PMIs released on Thursday came in well below expectations which increased fears of a slowing US economy. In addition, investors are remaining cautious amidst signs that global crude oil and fuel supply remains tight. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Silver prices on the decling As the Federal Reserve and other major central banks continue to rise interest rates in an attempt to tackle rising inflation and risking a global recession, the price of silver is falling. Silver is usually viewed as a hedge against inflation and as a safe-haven asset during times of economic crisis, however as interest rates rise, so too does the opportunity cost of holding silver. Silver Jul ‘22 Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Corn Prices Recorded Their Biggest Weekly Gain, Gold Demand In India May Suffer A Temporary Setback

G7 Leaders Discussed A Price Cap On Russian Brent Crude Oil, China Eases Covid-19 Restrictions, Corn Prices Are Trading At 2 Week Lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 27.06.2022 12:50
Summary: G7 leaders discussed a price cap on Russian oil. Fears of a recession eased in the wake of China’s easing of lockdown restrictions and testing measures. Recession prospects weighing on demand for corn. Read next: Rising Interest Rates Are Inhibiting The Demand For Gold And Silver, Concerns Around A Recession Are Driving Brent Crude Oil Prices Down  Prospects of tighter supply of Brent Crude oil weighed on markets Brent Crude prices are sitting at around $113 on Monday as recession fears put downward pressure on Brent prices. In addition, traders are monitoring any news from the G7 summit which is taking place in Germany ahead of talks between the US and Iran to revive the nuclear deal made in 2015. G7 leaders discussed a price cap on Russian oil, which will work through the imposition of restrictions on both shipping and insurance and allowing only the transportation of Russian crude and petroleum products that are sold below an agreed threshold. However, the thought of even more supply tightness weighed on the market, with the G7 leaders still determined to find ways to cut Russia's war against Ukraine Funding. Brent Crude Oil Price Chart Silver prices bounce back Silver prices bounced back somewhat on Monday as fears of a recession eased in the wake of China’s easing of lockdown restrictions and testing measures. However, silver prices remain under threat from further monetary policy tightening, with both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) expected to raise interest rates further. Silver Jul ‘22 Futures Prices Corn Prices at 2 week lows Corn is trading at 2 week lows on Monday, as favourable weather and weaker demand prospects weighed on prices, temporarily turning the attention away from war disruptions at Black Sea Ports. Fears of demand come from recession prospects. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
Chile's Lithium Nationalization and the Global Trend of Resource Nationalism: Implications for EV Supply Chains and Efforts to Strengthen Battery Metal Supply

Gold Prices Struggle To Hold Monday’s Gains, Concerns Around NGAS Supplies Are Easing, Cotton - A Recession Sensitive Commodity

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 28.06.2022 13:18
Summary: UK, US, Japan and Canada all ban Russian gold imports. NGAS domestic inventories are rising. Favourable weather conditions are causing more hope of solid Cotton yields in top growing regions. Read next: G7 Leaders Discussed A Price Cap On Russian Brent Crude Oil, China Eases Covid-19 Restrictions, Corn Prices Are Trading At 2 Week Lows  Gold prices trading at 2 week lows The price of gold is trading at almost 2 week lows on Tuesday, this comes in the wake of continuous elevated US treasury yields. The metal struggled to hold onto Monday’s gains that came in the wake of the UK, US, Japan and Canada all officially banning the imports of Russian gold, the move has been viewed by the markets as largely symbolic as Russia’s exports to the west have already dried up. Although gold is widely considered as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties, higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Gold Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart NGAS price recovery Natural Gas prices rose again, however they remain under pressure due to rising domestic inventories and milder temperatures which weighed on the demand for cooling. In addition, the most recent EIA report showed that US utilities injected more cubic feet of gas into underground storage than was expected. NGAS Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton prices due to be impacted by a recession Cotton futures prices dropped to 9 month lows in the wake of growing recessionary concerns and increased prospects of a lower demand. Cotton is known to be a recession sensitive commodity, thus, cotton prices are set to be impacted by major banks’ rising interest rates in an attempt to fight inflation and the slowdown in both consumption and economic activity. In addition, favourable weather conditions are causing more hope of solid yields in top growing regions. Cotton Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
OPEC+ Meeting: Saudi Arabia Implements Deeper Voluntary Cuts to Boost Oil Prices

Tighter Supply Concerns For WTI Crude Oil, Coffee Prices At 2 Week Lows, Palladium Prices Are Rising With Expectations Of Increasing Demand

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 29.06.2022 09:46
Summary: WTI Crude Oil prices have been rallying as investors weigh concerns over ongoing supply tightness over a potential slowdown in demand. Concerns around dry weather conditions in Brazil may lead to lower coffee yields. Palladiums prices rise in the wake of China easing covid restrictions in China WTI Crude Oil Prices are rising as concerns around supply outweigh demand concerns WTI Crude Oil prices have been rallying as investors weigh concerns over ongoing supply tightness over a potential slowdown in demand. Industry data reflected that Crude inventories declined last week worse than the market has expected. In addition the US crude benchmark jumped 2% in the previous session in the wake of reports that major producers UAE and Saudi Arabia are at (or very close to) near term limits, whilst simultaneously unrest in Ecuador and Libya which threaten to tighten supply further. This comes before an OPEC+ meeting this week, where the group is expected to stick to its policy of modest output increases. WTI Crude Oil Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart Coffee prices downside may be limited Arabica Coffee futures are trading at around 2 week lows as coffee production improved. In addition, the USDA projected global coffee production to rise in their 2022/23, mainly due to Brazil’s arabica crop entering the on-year of the biennial production cycle. However, concerns around dry weather conditions in Brazil may lead to lower coffee yields and limit the downside in coffee prices. Coffee Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Palladium Prices Rise Palladium Futures have risen to around 2 week highs after they rebounded from 6 month lows that we hit in mid-June in the wake of China’s decision to lift covid restrictions in Shanghai which lifted hopes of a recovery in metal demand. China is the largest consumer of palladium, and accounts for 26% of the total global consumption. In parallel, traders expect major central banks to ease back from aggressive monetary tightening due to easing inflation and disappointing macroeconomic figures, raising expectations of a recovery in global economy and in turn consumer spending.   Palladium Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Russia Look Set To Double Its Exports For The First Half Of 2023

Wheat Prices Supported By Increased Importer Demand, Weaker Demand Is Plunging Platinum Prices, RBOB Gasoline

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 30.06.2022 23:01
Summary: Platinum prices plunged amidst prospects of a weaker demand for the metal Wheat prices touched four-month lows on June 27th but have since recovered somewhat. Prospects of a recession could cause a decrease in oil demand are driving oil prices down. Platinum prices plunged on Thursday Platinum prices plunged amidst prospects of a weaker demand for the metal outweighed the fear of tighter supplies. As major central banks all over the world continue to raise interest rates in an attempt to control inflation despite the possibility of a recession, a slowdown in economic activity (including vehicle production) is inevitable. As the war in the Ukraine shows no signs of slowing, global platinum supplies are expected to remain subdued. Platinum Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Wheat prices supported by increased importer demand Wheat prices touched four-month lows on June 27th but have since recovered somewhat, supported by increased demand from importers. In the wake of a muted demand period, state tenders from Bangladesh, Jordan and signs of future tenders from Egypt all contributed to lifting buying expectations. However, currently there is a record supply of wheat from Russia and a strong harvest that was stronger than expected in North America. Investors continue to monitor the possibility of seaborne exports from Ukraine, after Italian Prime Minister Draghi hinted that trade corridors may open soon. Wheat Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline Oil futures prices fell on Thursday in the wake of a weekly increase in U.S gasoline and distillate supplies raising worries over the demand outlook, and major oil producers are expected to remain on track to boost production in August. The market uncertainty over future OPEC+ output and recession fears which could cause a decrease in oil demand are driving oil prices down. RBOB Gasoline Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com. tradingeconomics.com
Gold Futures Fell To Near 7 Week Lows, Investors Weighing Supply v Demand For WTI Crude, Platinum Prices

Gold Futures Fell To Near 7 Week Lows, Investors Weighing Supply v Demand For WTI Crude, Platinum Prices

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 01.07.2022 17:23
Summary: Fed policymakers are signaling yet another 75 basis point rate increase in July. WTI is bullish. Platinum Prices are at 19 month lows. Read next: https://www.fxmag.com/commodities/wheat-prices-supported-by-increased-importer-demand-weaker-demand-is-plunging-platinum-prices-rbob-gasoline  Gold Futures near 7 week lows. Gold prices neared near 7 week lows on Friday as a strong dollar continued on its path to dampening demand for bullion, whilst a broader market sentiment in risk assets pushed investors to liquidate their gold positions to offset losses in their other holdings. Fed policymakers indicated during this week a commitment to controlling inflation even at the risk of a recession, signaling yet another 75 basis point rate increase in July. Gold is normally considered as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, however higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Gold Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart Investors weigh tight supply on the backdrop of falling demand WTI Crude Oil WTI crude oil futures dipped and bounced back during the Friday trading day as investors weighed a tightening supply on the backdrop of recession prospects and a slowing economy causing a decline in demand. Earlier this week OPEC+ agreed to stick to its output strategy, increasing production by 648,000 barrels per day in July and August, despite signs that the physical crude market remains very tight. In addition, factors added to the bullish outlook for crude include supply outages in Libya and expected shutdowns in Norway. WTI Crude Oil Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart Platinum prices at 19 month lows Platinum prices plunged amidst prospects of a weaker demand for the metal that outweighed the fear of tighter supplies. As major central banks all over the world continue to raise interest rates in an attempt to control inflation despite the possibility of a recession, in the wake of aggressive monetary policy, a slowdown in economic activity (including vehicle production) is inevitable. As the war in the Ukraine shows no signs of slowing, global platinum supplies are expected to remain subdued. Platinum Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com, fxmag.com
Eyes On Iran Nuclear Deal: Oil Case. Gold Price Is Swinging

Concerns Over Tight Supplies Is Driving Brent Crude Oil Prices Up, Silver Prices Falling, Favourable Weather, Weak Demand & Tight Supplies - Factors Driving Corn Prices

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 04.07.2022 15:54
Summary: Concerns around tight Brent supplies outweighed concerns around a global recession dampening demand. Silver prices falling in the wake of an aggressive Fed. Traders weighed weak demand and favourable weather prospects against fears of tight supplies. Read more: Gold Futures Fell To Near 7 Week Lows, Investors Weighing Supply v Demand For WTI Crude, Platinum Prices  Brent Crude Oil prices are up on Monday Brent crude oil prices are up on Monday as concerns around tight supplies outweighed concerns around a global recession dampening demand. A Reuters survey showed that output from 10 OPEC members fell during June. In addition, exports from Libya also declined below expected levels and Norway's daily output is expected to decline due to a planned strike by Norwegian energy sector workers. Brent Crude Futures Price Chart Silver prices reaching 2 year lows Silver prices have been consistently declining to prices not seen since July of 2020, as they close in toward the $20 per-ounce mark. The price declines come in the wake of aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve to try to control high inflation levels which caused investors to turn away from the non-yielding metal. The Fed has reiterated their commitment to fighting inflation, setting expectations for a back-to-back 75 bps interest rate hike in July. Silver Sept ‘22 Futures Price Chart Investors weighing weak demand and favourable weather against tight supply fears Corn prices hovered around $7.5 per bushel as traders weighed weak demand and favourable weather prospects against fears of tight supplies. More corn crop has been planted than the March recordings, the crop flourished in its early stages of development after a late start to planting, this is due to the wet and cool conditions around most of the Midwest. Meanwhile, traders are watching the weather forecasts for the coming weeks as the corn enters its pollination phase which will determine the yields during the harvest that starts in September. At the same time, aggressive monetary tightening is raising fears of economic slowdown and demand destruction is causing concerns around demand for the grain. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com
Commodities Update: Strong Russian Oil Flows to China and Volatility in European Gas Market

NGAS Prices See Relief, Cotton Prices Drop As Recession Fears Heighten, Gold Prices Drop As Hawkish Central Banks Continue

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 05.07.2022 16:41
Summary: Cotton is at its lowest price since last September. Rising inventories causing Natural gas to close at its lowest level since mid-March. Gold prices falling as central banks continue with aggressive monetary policy tightening. Read next: https://www.fxmag.com/commodities/concerns-over-tight-supplies-is-driving-brent-crude-oil-prices-up-silver-prices-falling-favourable-weather-weak-demand-tight-supplies-factors-driving-corn-prices  NGAS prices dropping in the wake of rising inventories Rising inventories causing Natural gas to close at its lowest level since mid-March. The US domestic market has gained an additional 2 bcf of NGAS per day since the explosion at Freeport LNG, according to the company it is expected to return to partial operational capacity in October. During the week ended 24th June, the extra fuel gave utilities the opportunity to inject 82 bcf into underground storage, according to EIA, which beat the median estimate of 74 bcf. NGAS Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart As major central banks continue with aggressive monetary policy tightening, Gold is falling Gold prices fell below the $1,800 mark during Tuesday's trading day in the wake of pressures from imminent interest rate hikes by major central banks and a strong US Dollar. The Federal Reserve bank confirmed market expectations for an extended monetary policy tightening path, with some policy makers even advocating for another 75bps hike in July in an attempt to lower consumer prices. Simultaneously, the European Central Bank (ECB) has also pledged to start raising interest rates in July and is expected to bring its deposit interest rate into the positive side during the third quarter. In addition, tighter financial conditions amongst major economies increased fears of a global recession, pushing investors towards the safety of the dollar and prompting a broad decline in commodity prices. Gold Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton prices impacted by slowing economies Cotton is at its lowest price since last September in the wake of heightened fears of a recession amidst lower demand prospects. The inflation sensitive commodity is due to be negatively impacted by the slowdown of economic activity and consumption As major global central banks are raising rates to fight inflation. In addition, adding to the weighing on the prices is a better crop outlook as favorable weather conditions boosted hopes of good yields in top growing regions. Cotton Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Commodities: EU Members Manage To Agree On Price Caps For Russian Oil

WTI Crude Prices Recover On Wednesday, Supply Prospects Of Coffee Are Improving, Palladium Prices

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 06.07.2022 11:47
Summary: WTI crude oil prices rose in the wake of fears that a recession could hurt demand were balanced by continuous concerns around supply. Arabica coffee prices were down from a three-week high on Wednesday. Palladium supply concerns weighed against demand concerns. Read next: Exxon (XOM) Price Falls In the Wake Of Declining Energy Prices  WTI Oil prices have been falling since mid-June WTI crude oil futures prices rose above during Wednesday's trading day after falling more than 8% and closing below the key level on Tuesday in the wake of fears that a recession could hurt demand were balanced by continuous concerns around supply. Wednesday Crude price was also attributed to (by some analysts) bargain hunting and short-coverings. Tight supply concerns were highlighted by OPEC’s Secretary general who announced on Tuesday that the oil industry was “under siege” in the wake of years of underinvestment, he also added that the shortages could be eased if Venezuelian and Iranian crude oil supplies were allowed. At the same time, crude prices have been falling since mid-June in the wake of recessionary concerns causing poor demand prospects. WTI Crude Oil Aug Futures Price Chart Coffee prices down as supply prospects improve Arabica coffee prices were down from a three-week high on Wednesday in the wake of both positive global outlook of improved production and a bearish macroeconomic environment. Although supplies are expected to improve, prospects of tight supply remain as concerns around dry weather conditions in Brazil continue. Coffee Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Traders weighing supply vs demand on Palladium Traders are currently trying to balance fears of tight supply with weak demand prospects, setting the Palladium metals price above its 1-month low hit on 4th July. Continuous aggressive monetary policy tightening from the Federal Reserve has strengthened prospects of a recession and has dampened demand. In addition, new Covid-19 cases in the world's largest Palladium consumer sparked fears for the imposition of tighter lockdown measures. On the supply side, disruptions of imports from Russia continue as the war in the Ukraine continues and trade restrictions continue to be imposed from the west onto Russia. Palladium Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Australia Is Expected To Produce A Bumper Year Of Crops

Platinum Prices Drop In The Wake Of Slower Demand Prospects, RBOB Gasoline Prices, Wheat Prices Below Pre-Russian Invasion Levels

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 07.07.2022 11:36
Summary: Recession and new covid-19 cases in China driving platinum prices lower. Chicago wheat futures prices rose in the wake of an increase in buying. Read next: WTI Crude Prices Recover On Wednesday, Supply Prospects Of Coffee Are Improving, Palladium Prices  Platinum Prices at 20 month lows Platinum prices had fallen to their lowest price in almost 20 months in the wake of lower demand expectations outweighed lower supply fears. The contraction in the US economy was more than expected amidst the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy which is aimed at curbing surging inflation has raised the concerns around an economic downturn. In addition, fresh new covi-19 cases in China’s eastern provinces weighed further on the outlook for demand and growth. Platinum Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Wheat prices lower than pre-Russian invasion levels Chicago wheat futures prices rose in the wake of an increase in buying from bargain buyers in the wake of the prices plummeting in the second half of June. Meanwhile, investors expectations around a large sum of Ukrainian Wheat entering the market any time soon are growing pessimistic. Wheat prices are still below pre-Russian invasion levels, as strong crops world wide added to the price pressures for agricultural commodities amidst recession fears. Wheat Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline Prices tanked this week Gasoline prices fell earlier this week in the wake of an increase in supply into the US underground reserves, this drove gas prices lower and oil giants’ profits higher as well. RBOB Gasoline Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
Corn Prices Recorded Their Biggest Weekly Gain, Gold Demand In India May Suffer A Temporary Setback

Aggressive Fed Increases The Opportunity Cost OF Holding Silver, WTI Crude Oil Prices, Corn: Traders Weigh Weak Demand & Tight Supply

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 08.07.2022 13:07
Summary: Aggressive Fed turning investors away from silver Lower demand prospects outweigh tight supply concerns for WTI Crude Oil. Commodity traders are watching weather in top growing corn regions. Read next: Platinum Prices Drop In The Wake Of Slower Demand Prospects, RBOB Gasoline Prices, Wheat Prices Below Pre-Russian Invasion Levels  Silver Prices hitting July 2020 lows. Silver prices are staying below the $20 mark per ounce, a level that has not been seen since July 2020. The price decline comes in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s committing to aggressive monetary policy tightening and raising interest rates further, this move causes investors to short the non-yielding metal. The Fed has set markt expectations for back-to-back 75 bps rate hikes in July. This move has Put a floor under prices where lingering concerns about slowing economic growth, mainly in Europe, as surging gas prices threaten the outlook for the Euro bloc. Silver Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Lower demand prospects outweigh tight supply concerns for WTI Crude Oil The price of crude futures are expected to close low on Friday as concerns around a global recession and its impact on the demand for crude oil outweighs the concerns around tight-supplies. The US oil benchmark has declined by 5% this week, tracking a broader decline in commodity markets in the wake of restrictive monetary policy among major economies threatening a global recession. Crude prices are still up 35% this year as global economic recovery coincided with Russia’s invasion in the Ukraine. WTI Crude Aug Futures Price Chart Corn prices Corn futures prices are currently hovering as the market weighs up favourable weather conditions and weak demand over tighter supply prospects. Weather conditions in top corn growing regions are being watched closely by traders. On the demand side, the combination of weak economic global data and aggressive monetary tightening from central banks is raising fears of a economic slowdown. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
US and European Equity Futures Mixed Amid Economic Concerns and Yield Surge

Recession Fears Are Affecting Brent Crude Prices, Silver Price vs A Hawkish Federal Reserve, Corn At 8-Week Highs

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 11.07.2022 16:00
Summary: Fears of a global recession are expected to dampen energy demand. Aggressive Fed prospects driving silver demand down. Hot weather conditions affecting corn growing prospects. Read next: Aggressive Fed Increases The Opportunity Cost OF Holding Silver, WTI Crude Oil Prices, Corn: Traders Weigh Weak Demand & Tight Supply  Concerns around demand driving Brent Crude Oil Prices down Brent Crude Oil futures fell during Monday trading after posting a loss last week in volatile trading in the wake of fears around a global recession and new COVID 19 virus restrictions in China, both of which outweighed fears around supply. Fears of a global recession are expected to dampen energy demand and continue to rule over market sentiment as major central banks continue to fight inflation through aggressive monetary policy interest rate hikes. In addition, a new omicron variant of COVID-19 has been discovered in Shanghai and has heightened fears of further restrictions. At the same time, market participants remain unsure about the western nations plans to cap Russian oil prices as Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that further sanctions could lead to "catastrophic" consequences within the global energy market. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Silver prices hover around $20 per ounce Silver prices are still sitting around the $20 per ounce mark, a level that has not been seen since July 2020. The price drop comes in the wake of stronger bets of a more aggressive Federal Reserve to increase interest rates in an attempt to reign in sky-high inflation. Silver is normally used as a hedge against inflation, however as treasury yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding silver rises. Silver Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn futures rose to 8-week highs Corn Futures have risen on Monday to 8-week highs and not far from the 10 year high hit in April. The price rose in the wake of concerns around tighter supplies amid an already short supply market that has been caused by the Russia-Ukraine war. Hot weather conditions in the US and European growing belt have nullified the price drop during the last trading week. At the same time, Chinese import demand also increased. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
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Disinflationary Narrative Mispriced as Weak US Dollar Boosts Commodities and Inflation Expectations

Kelvin Wong Kelvin Wong 14.07.2023 16:02
Current up moves in long-duration equities and fixed income came at the expense of a weaker US dollar. A persistent weak US dollar may lead to an upside revival in commodities prices. Inflationary expectations may creep up again due to higher oil/commodities prices. Disinflationary narrative seems premature and may be mispriced.   Market participants have taken a “disinflation ecstasy pill”, bidding up long-duration equities and fixed income in the past two sessions after the latest June US CPI data came in below expectations with the headline print dipped to 3% year-on-year, its slowest rate of growth seen in two years. The core consumer inflation rate (excluding food & energy) also slowed to 4.8% year-on-year from 5.3% recorded in May and dipped below the current Fed Funds rate of 5% to 5.25%. In terms of week-to-date performances as of 13 July, higher beta and long-duration equities outperformed, and the Nasdaq 100 rallied by +3.56%, just 7.7% away from its November 2022 all-time high. Over in the fixed income space, last week’s losses were almost recouped; iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund (ETF) recorded a week-to-date gain of 2.84%, iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (+2.61%), and iShares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (+2.44%). This latest bout of “disinflationary optimism” has revived the “Fed Pivot” narrative where participants are now anticipating that the upcoming July FOMC meeting will likely see the last interest rate hike of 25 basis points (bps) to end this current cycle of monetary policy tightening in the US and negate the current “higher interest rates for a longer period” guidance advocated by Fed officials.   US Dollar Index’s major downtrend was reinforced via a break below 100.95 key support   Fig 1:  US Dollar Index medium-term and major trend as of 14 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The current disinflationary theme play has come at the expense of a weaker US dollar that sank to a 15-month low, the US Dollar Index has tumbled by -2.52% for this week, set for its worst weekly performance since the week of 7 November 2022 as it broke below the key medium-term support of 100.95. Right now, there are second-order effects at play where significant global financial market movements are likely to spiral into the real economy in the months ahead. A weaker US dollar may translate to higher commodities prices as most commodities; physical and paper (futures contracts) are priced in US dollars. This above-mentioned linkage of a weaker US dollar to higher commodities prices seems to be emerging in the financial markets; the week-to-date performance of WTI crude oil futures is up by +4.1% and a broader basket of commodities as measured by the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund has rallied by 3.6% for this week.     Inflationary expectations may start to creep up     Fig 2:  WTI crude oil correlation with US 5-YR & 10-YR breakeven inflation rates as of 13 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Commodity prices such as oil have a high degree of direct correlation with forward-looking inflationary expectations. In the past three years, the price actions of WTI crude oil have moved in lock-step with the US Treasury’s 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates (a measurement of inflationary expectations). If WTI crude oil can maintain its current upward trajectory, inflationary expectations may creep higher from this juncture.   Potential upside momentum in commodities may spark another ascend in US CPI       Fig 3: Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund major trend with US CPI as of 13 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) In addition, from a momentum perspective, an imminent trend change may start to take shape for commodities prices after close to one year of downtrend since June 2022 using Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) as a commodities benchmark. The current weekly MACD trend indicator of the DBC has just flashed a bullish crossover signal below its centreline that suggested that the major downtrend of DBC in place since the June 2022 high may have ended which in turn increases the odds of a bullish reversal for commodities prices. A similar MACD bullish crossover observation on the DBC occurred in early June 2020 that spiralled into the real economy where inflationary pressures; headline and core US CPI started their ascend. Therefore, a potential uptick in inflationary expectations coupled with the current positive momentum in commodities prices may put a halt to the current inflationary slowdown trajectory seen in the latest US CPI prints. The ongoing disinflationary narrative may be premature and mispriced at this juncture.
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The Weaker US Dollar and Potential Upside in Commodities Spark Inflationary Expectations

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 17.07.2023 09:33
Current up moves in long-duration equities and fixed income came at the expense of a weaker US dollar. A persistent weak US dollar may lead to an upside revival in commodities prices. Inflationary expectations may creep up again due to higher oil/commodities prices. Disinflationary narrative seems premature and may be mispriced.   Market participants have taken a “disinflation ecstasy pill”, bidding up long-duration equities and fixed income in the past two sessions after the latest June US CPI data came in below expectations with the headline print dipped to 3% year-on-year, its slowest rate of growth seen in two years. The core consumer inflation rate (excluding food & energy) also slowed to 4.8% year-on-year from 5.3% recorded in May and dipped below the current Fed Funds rate of 5% to 5.25%. In terms of week-to-date performances as of 13 July, higher beta and long-duration equities outperformed, and the Nasdaq 100 rallied by +3.56%, just 7.7% away from its November 2022 all-time high. Over in the fixed income space, last week’s losses were almost recouped; iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund (ETF) recorded a week-to-date gain of 2.84%, iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (+2.61%), and iShares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (+2.44%). This latest bout of “disinflationary optimism” has revived the “Fed Pivot” narrative where participants are now anticipating that the upcoming July FOMC meeting will likely see the last interest rate hike of 25 basis points (bps) to end this current cycle of monetary policy tightening in the US and negate the current “higher interest rates for a longer period” guidance advocated by Fed officials.     US Dollar Index’s major downtrend was reinforced via a break below 100.95 key support   Fig 1:  US Dollar Index medium-term and major trend as of 14 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The current disinflationary theme play has come at the expense of a weaker US dollar that sank to a 15-month low, the US Dollar Index has tumbled by -2.52% for this week, set for its worst weekly performance since the week of 7 November 2022 as it broke below the key medium-term support of 100.95. Right now, there are second-order effects at play where significant global financial market movements are likely to spiral into the real economy in the months ahead. A weaker US dollar may translate to higher commodities prices as most commodities; physical and paper (futures contracts) are priced in US dollars. This above-mentioned linkage of a weaker US dollar to higher commodities prices seems to be emerging in the financial markets; the week-to-date performance of WTI crude oil futures is up by +4.1% and a broader basket of commodities as measured by the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund has rallied by 3.6% for this week.   Inflationary expectations may start to creep up   Fig 2:  WTI crude oil correlation with US 5-YR & 10-YR breakeven inflation rates as of 13 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Commodity prices such as oil have a high degree of direct correlation with forward-looking inflationary expectations. In the past three years, the price actions of WTI crude oil have moved in lock-step with the US Treasury’s 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates (a measurement of inflationary expectations). If WTI crude oil can maintain its current upward trajectory, inflationary expectations may creep higher from this juncture.   Potential upside momentum in commodities may spark another ascend in US CPI   Fig 3: Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund major trend with US CPI as of 13 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) In addition, from a momentum perspective, an imminent trend change may start to take shape for commodities prices after close to one year of downtrend since June 2022 using Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) as a commodities benchmark. The current weekly MACD trend indicator of the DBC has just flashed a bullish crossover signal below its centreline that suggested that the major downtrend of DBC in place since the June 2022 high may have ended which in turn increases the odds of a bullish reversal for commodities prices. A similar MACD bullish crossover observation on the DBC occurred in early June 2020 that spiralled into the real economy where inflationary pressures; headline and core US CPI started their ascend. Therefore, a potential uptick in inflationary expectations coupled with the current positive momentum in commodities prices may put a halt to the current inflationary slowdown trajectory seen in the latest US CPI prints. The ongoing disinflationary narrative may be premature and mispriced at this juncture.      

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