commodities

Focusing On US CPI, Fed, Commodities and Bank Of Japan - Saxo Market Call

Saxo Strategy Team 11.02.2022 10:47

Podcast 2022-02-11 08:46 20 minutes to read Summary: Today, we look at the hot US January CPI data hitting the markets yesterday, with an interesting attempt at a whiplash inducing bounce in sentiment just after the data release dealt an initial blow to sentiment as more Fed hikes were priced into the forward curve. Then markets turned south again when St. Louis Fed President and FOMC voter Stephen Bullard later administered a hawkish broadside with thoughts on an emergency Fed rate hike, a rapid path to 100 basis points of hikes and an imminent start to quantitative tightening. We also look at the impact on commodity markets from yesterday's developments and the Bank of Japan doubling down for now on its yield-curve-control policy and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast and have a look at today’s slide deck. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Podbean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it. Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.

Fed And BoE Ahead Of Interest Rates Decisions. Having A Look At Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Charts

Many Would Want To Know The Near Future Of S&P 500

Monica Kingsley 11.02.2022 15:57

S&P 500 upswing was rejected – the intraday comeback didn‘t succeed. Risk-off posture won the day, and the dust is settling. Day 4-5 of the rally‘s window of opportunity that I talked on Monday, is proving as a milestone. Hot CPI data has increased the bets on Mar 50bp rate hike to a virtual certainty, and asset prices didn‘t like that. Not just stocks across the board, but commodities likewise (to a modest degree only) gave up intraday gains, turning a little red. Cryptos too ended down – it had been a good decision to cash in solid open long profits in S&P 500, oil and copper. Fresh portfolio highs reached over this 12+ months period (details on my homepage): What‘s the game plan for today? As the dollar closed flat while yields rose, I‘m not ruling out a reflexive intraday rebound attempt – after all, the bears should rule in the 2nd half of Feb most clearly. As time passes, the rips would be sold into unless bonds and tech can catch a solid bid. With focus on inflation, that‘s unlikely. Medium-term S&P 500 bias continues being short while commodity dips are to be cautiously bought. Crude oil looks to need to spend a bit more time around $90 while copper defending the low $4.50 is equally important. While silver didn‘t rise by nearly as much as the red metal did, it is down approximately as much in today‘s premarket – the white metal would recover on a less headline heavy day. Remember that PMs are trading sideways to up, with decreasing sensitivity to rising 10-year yield, and have done historically well when rate hikes finally start. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 momentum has sharply shifted to the downside, and today‘s recovery attempts are likely to be sold into. I‘m keeping a keen eye on bonds, tech and risk-on in general – not expecting miracles. Credit Markets HYG keeps showing the way, resolutely down as of yesterday. With rising yields not propelling even financials, the bears have returned a few days earlier than they could – in a show of strength. Gold, Silver and Miners Miners issued a warning to gold and silver – yesterday brought a classic short-term top sign. I‘m though not ascribing great significance to it, for it isnt‘a turning point. Gold would be relatively unmoved while silver recovers however deep setback it suffers today. Crude Oil Crude oil appears to need more time to base – while the upside is being rejected for now, the selling attempts aren‘t materializing at all. Higher volume adds to short-term indecision, but strong (long) hands are to win. Copper Copper is running into selling pressure, and looks in need of consolidation in order to overcome $4.60. The red metal remains true to its reputation for volatility. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are taking their time, and the bulls need to act. Given that volume isn‘t disappearing, the bears have a short-term advantage. Summary S&P 500 looks to be getting under pressure soon again, today. There is no support from bonds, unless these stage an intraday risk-on reversal. The momentum is with the sellers, and rips are likely to be sold as markets digest yet more hawkish Fed action slated for March. Digest and slated are the key words – the Fed‘s hand is being forced here. Commodities and precious metals are likely to do best in what‘s coming – the 5-10 day window of bullish S&P 500 price action, is slowly closing down. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

COT Soft Commodities Speculators push Soybeans bullish bets higher for 9th time in 10 weeks

Invest Macro 12.02.2022 17:00

Technical Analysis: Moving Averages - Did You Know This Tool?

WTI pulls back sharply from Monday’s multi-year highs near $96.00, back to the $91.00s as geopolitical risk premia eases

FXStreet News 15.02.2022 16:09

WTI has pulled back sharply on Tuesday from Monday’s multi-year highs near $96.00 and is back in the $91.00s. Fears of an imminent Russian invasion into Ukraine have eased as Russia withdraws some troops, weighing on oil prices. Oil prices have pulled back sharply from Monday’s multi-year highs, with front-month WTI futures now trading back to the south of the $92.00 level, down about $3.0 per day and more than $4.0 below Monday’s multi-year highs near $96.00. Press reports about a withdrawal of troops on the Ukrainian border to their bases has spurred a rebound in risk appetite and reduction in demand for safe havens on Tuesday. Such flows could have further legs in wake of remarks from Russian President Vladimir Putin who just said that a decision on partial troop withdrawal had been taken. For oil, tentative signs of de-escalation have triggered profit-taking as geopolitical risk premia is reduced somewhat, though Western nations and NATO remain highly concerned that Russia maintains the option for a near-term attack. One theme to watch is that Russian President Vladimir Putin might imminently recognise the independence of the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics (LPR and DPR), both breakaway regions of Ukraine located in the East. Western officials have criticised Russia’s State Duma for voting in favour of the recognition, which would break the Minsk Agreement designed to implement a ceasefire in the Ukraine civil war. Geopolitical strategists fear that Russia might create a false pretext for military action against Ukraine by rekindling violence in the East, with a recognition of LPR and DPR independence a potential step in this direction. For now, WTI traders will remain on tenterhooks and trading conditions will remain choppy/headline-driven. Near-term WTI bears will likely eye an imminent test of an uptrend that has been supporting the price action for the whole of 2022 thus far in the $90.00s. A break below this could see oil prices swiftly move back under $90.00 and hit support in the form of last week’s lows in the mid-$88.00s. Aside from Eastern European geopolitics, oil traders will also be keeping an eye on upcoming private weekly US oil inventory data at 2130GMT, as well as indirect US/Iran nuclear negotiations, which continue to rumble on in the background.

COT Currency Speculator Sentiment rising for Euro & British Pound Sterling

Mean Reversion

Monica Kingsley 15.02.2022 16:32

S&P 500 refused further downside yesterday, and while credit markets didn‘t move much, rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight. For now, the war drums took the limelight away, but don‘t count on gold, silver or oil correcting significantly and lastingly. Cryptos are supporting the return of risk-on as the touted war just isn‘t happening either today or tomorrow, and market participants are dialing back the panicky bets. That‘s why Treasuries and tech movements are so key these days – copper trading shows that we‘re in for paring back of the fire sales. I can‘t call it a full fledged stock market reversal, not yet. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Pause but more likely a rebound, is what comes next for S&P 500. Closing above the 200-day moving average is possible, but more is needed for a trend reversal in this correction. Credit Markets Credit markets moderated their pace of decline, and there‘s no risk-on posture apparent yet. We may be though nearing the point of credit market reprieve – as much as that‘s compatible with rate raising cycle. Gold, Silver and Miners Miners and gold are benefiting from the tensions, but they‘ll just as easily give up some of these gains next. What‘s important though, is the continued trend of making higher highs and higher lows. Crude Oil Crude oil looks also likely to lose some of the prior safe haven bid, but similarly to precious metals, the trend is higher, and corrections are more or less eagerly bought. Only should the Fed‘s actions harm the real economy, would oil prices meaningfully decline. Copper Copper is rebounding, but still remains trading in a not too hot fashion – the red metal is still trailing behind other commodities significantly. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos deciding to go higher, is a positive sign for stocks as well – the volume looks to be noticeable enough at the close later today to lend the upswing credibility. Summary S&P 500 bulls have the opportunity today, but the market remains as headline sensitive as everything else. Treasuries stabilizing or even moving higher while funds flow out of the dollar, that would be a bullish confirmation – and the same goes for precious metals not getting hammered, but finding a decent floor. The point is that war jitters calming down when Russia doesn‘t take the bait, makes assets to continue with their prior trends and focus, which is Fed and tightening. The bets on 50bp rate hike in Mar went down recently, and when they start rising again, it would make sense to deploy more capital – including into oil above $90, give or take a buck. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Stumbling Again

Monica Kingsley 16.02.2022 15:53

S&P 500 rebound goes on reflexively, but stormy clouds are gathering – I‘m looking for the bears to reassert themselves over the next couple of days latest. The credit markets posture is far from raging risk-on even though select commodities are recovering (what else to expect in a secular commodities bull) and precious metals suffered a modest setback (not a reversal though). Crypto recovery is nodding towards the risk-on upturn that is though likely to get checked soon.It‘s great that tech was the driver of yesterday‘s S&P 500 upswing, but for how long would it keep leadership now that attention is shifting back towards inflation. Yesterday I wrote that: (...) rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight.So far the stock market advance hasn‘t met a brick wall, but value upswing has been sold into (unlike tech‘s). Energy stocks lost, but are likely to come back – and the next microrotation might not be powerful enough to carry S&P 500 higher. Anyway without a HYG upswing, stock bulls are facing stiff headwinds.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 rebounded on low volume but that wouldn‘t be an issue in a healthy bull market – the trouble is that this 2022 price action isn‘t very healthy.Credit MarketsHYG didn‘t trade on a strong note, and the rise in yields continues almost unabated. This is what I meant yesterday by saying that we may be though nearing the point of credit market reprieve – as much as that‘s compatible with rate raising cycle.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals suffered a temporary setback – they easily gave up some of the safe haven gains, which isn‘t surprising. The bulls though haven‘t lost control, and that‘s key.Crude OilCrude oil dip was bought, and there wasn‘t much bearish conviction to start with. The general uptrend is likely to continue, and $90 appears likely to hold over the next few days definitely.CopperCopper is now in for some backing and filling, but managed to catch up with other commodities a little yesterday. The red metal remains range bound, but making good bullish progress.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are paring back yesterday‘s advance, and unless the mid Feb lows give, they‘re likely to muddle through with a modest bullish bias till the attention shifts to the Fed again.SummaryS&P 500 bulls‘ opportunity seems slipping away with each 1D or 4H candle, and I‘m not counting on the credit markets to ride to stocks‘ rescue. The commodities bull though is likely to carry on with little interference – and so does the precious metals bull as the yield curve keeps compressing. Slowdown in economic growth with rampant inflation and the realization that the Fed tightening hasn‘t had the effect, is awaiting, and would usher in strong gold and silver gains.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Bearish Turn Coming

Monica Kingsley 17.02.2022 15:57

Thanks to Fed minutes, the S&P 500 closed modestly up, but could have taken the stronger credit markets cue. Instead, the upswing was sold into – the selling pressure is there, and neither value nor tech took the opportunity to rise, even against the backdrop of a weakening dollar. That‘s quite telling – the stock market correction hasn‘t run its course yet, and whatever progress the bulls make, is being countered convincingly. Precious metals adored the combo of yields and dollar turning down – and reacted with the miners‘ outperformance. The silver to copper ratio is basing, and the white metal looks to have better short-term prospects than the red one. Still in the headline sensitive environment we‘re in, gold would be stronger than silver until inflation is recognized for what it is. If there‘s one thing that the aftermath of Fed minutes showed, it‘s that the commodities superbull is alive and well, and that precious metals likewise are acting very positively in this tightening cycle. Suffice to say that gold has a track record of turning up once the rate hikes finally start… Excellent, the portfolio is positioned accordingly. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 rebound is getting suspect, and should stocks close on a weak note today, it‘s clear that today‘s wobbling Philly Fed Manufacturing Index won‘t be balanced out by the succession of Fed speakers – the signs of real economy headwinds are here. Credit Markets HYG upswing could have had broader repercussions, and it‘s quite telling it didn‘t. The risk-on turn would likely be sold into, with consequences. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals suffered a temporary setback only indeed – I‘m looking for the gains to continue as the miners outperformance just can‘t be overlooked. Crude Oil Crude oil dipped some more, and the dip was again bought. Given the late session wavering, I‘m looking for some more sideways and volatile trading ahead before the upswing reasserts itself. Copper Copper continues trading sideways, but with bullish undertones. More consolidation before another upswing attempt is probable. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are turning down, but still haven‘t broken either way out of the current range. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are sending a message of caution. Summary S&P 500 bulls‘ opportunity seems increasingly slipping away given that the buyers couldn‘t defend gains after Fed minutes release. The upturn in credit markets is likely to prove of fleeting shelf life, and would exert downward pressure upon stocks. As I wrote yesterday (and talked extensively within today‘s article chart captions), the commodities bull is likely to carry on with little interference – and so would the precious metals bull as the yield curve keeps compressing, and the beginning of rate hikes would mark further headwinds for the real economy at a time of persistent inflation that could be perhaps brought down to 4-5% official rate late this year (which would leave the mainstream wondering why it just isn‘t transitory somewhat more – what an irony). The Fed‘s tools to be employed are simply insufficient to break the inflation‘s back, that‘s it. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Our Attention Should Be Drawn To Fed As Well, An Increase Of Interest Rate Is Likely To Come

Chris Vermeulen 15.02.2022 15:31

The FED has made it very clear that it will raise its benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate. This could have severe consequences and even lead to a financial crisis. They are too far behind the curve and will be labeled a major policy error in the future, most likely. They have put themselves in a situation where they are now their own hostage. They need more leadership to describe what a soft landing is going to look like. They have been too slow to act, and now they are going too fast. The “Powell Put” has now been put out to pasture. We believe that the FED will make more rate hikes than they have announced. Goldman Sachs thinks there will be four 25-basis-point increases in the federal funds rate in 2022. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said, “he wouldn’t be surprised if there were even more interest rate hikes than that in 2022. There’s a pretty good chance there will be more than four. There could be six or seven. I grew up in a world where Paul Volcker raised his rates 200 basis points on a Saturday night.” Mr. James Bullard of the St. Louis FED spoke out in an arrogant tone that aggressive action is now required. The markets translated this to mean that the FED was going to call an emergency meeting as soon as this coming week to hike interest rates by no less than 50 basis points. This sent interest rates soaring and stock prices plummeting. WARNING: More Downside To Come Uncertainty abounds regarding the path of inflation and new FED policy. This has created a landscape of continued strong periods of distribution in the equity markets. If there are any bounces, they should be used to sell ‘risk assets’. This has been one of the worst starts to a calendar year in the history of the stock and bond markets. Chart Source: Zero Hedge Last Thursday, the reported inflation rate increased by 7.7 percent, the highest in forty years. Stocks tumble as red-hot inflation print pressures technology shares. Markets didn’t like this, which immediately moved them down. Bears are in control of the market, which can be observed from Friday’s trading session. The U.S. 10-year yield rose above 2% for the first time since August 2019 amid a broad Treasury-market selloff. It was driven by expectations for quicker FED interest-rate hikes to contain faster than predicted inflation. It takes at least two to three years to have any material impact on the economy. One sector is currently doing well, which is the oil sector. Cycle's analysis is applied to find the best stocks to invest in and the best sectors. The next sector we are monitoring is Gold/Silver. Crude oil prices are staying strong. There are a lot of geopolitical factors in play here. I think there's a risk premium on oil right now because of Russia. What The Heck is CPI? The Consumer Price Index, CPI, is the measure of changes in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services. This is one of the most frequently used statistics for identifying periods of inflation in households. Consumer Price Index Summary. Last Thursday, the inflation figures were released, confirming that everything is getting more expensive. It is up 7.5 percent versus last year. Mortgage rates are starting to rise. If you plan to buy a new home, this is the time to do it. These historically low interest rates will not last long. Should I Invest In Gold Today? Owning gold acts as a hedge against inflation as well as a good portfolio diversifier as it is a great store of value. Gold also provides financial cover during geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. Gold has historically been an excellent hedge against inflation because its price tends to rise when the cost-of-living increases. Conclusion: It seems the stock market may be on its last leg here. Big money flow has been coming out of the large-cap stocks while commodities have been rising. Commodities are typically one of the last assets to rally before the stock market top and start a bear market. I see all the signs, but we must wait for the price to confirm before taking action. We have seen this setup before in 2015/2016, also in 2018, and the market recovered and rallied dramatically from those levels. What Trading Strategies Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

COT Soft Commodities Speculators drop Sugar bullish wagers to 91-week low

Invest Macro 19.02.2022 15:30

Crypto Charts - BTC Monthly, Weekly, Daily Chart

Korbinian Koller 22.02.2022 09:33

Bitcoin, best in play The Covid environment brought an additional variant risk factor to the table, especially when it comes to investor psychology. Our last weekly chart book publication made a case for positioning one’s risk hedge plays this year when equity markets most likely trade in a volatile sideways range. We also spoke of a proper wealth preservation strategy, holding both bitcoin and gold within a hedged risk reduction approach for your monies. With our primary focus on risk, the next question is allocation size between bitcoin and gold. As mentioned in the intro, it feels intuitively natural to have significant exposure to the gold side from a cycle history. Yet, insurance seems essential at this time, and as such, we tend to be a bit more aggressive towards bitcoin allocations. Bitcoin, daily chart, not just yet: Bitcoin, daily chart as of February 22nd, 2022. The daily chart reflects the common notion of bitcoin trading alongside PMI numbers and the market as a whole. With the recent break of the modest bounce from the US$33,500 level up leg (yellow up-channel), no immediate low-risk entries for longer-term exposure seems in play. Bitcoin, weekly chart, great setup, bitcoin, best in play: Bitcoin, weekly chart as of February 22nd, 2022. Nevertheless, we find now zooming out to the weekly time frame a quite interesting entry zone (white box) between the levels US$30,000 to US$34,000. We identified by stacking multiple edges that an entry near US$31,800 would provide the most low-risk entry profile. However, it will depend on how prices will arrive at these levels. As such, we encourage you to check back in our free Telegram channel. There we post-entries, and exits for educational purposes in real-time. Bitcoin, monthly chart, amazing potential: Bitcoin, monthly chart as of February 22nd, 2022. Where matters become more transparent, and our headlines supported, is at a view of the monthly chart. The first leg up was nothing short of a 1,600% advancement. Now we have been trading for a year in a bullish up sloping sideways channel. With a possible entry at the lows of this channel, a long-term investment provides for a stellar risk/reward-ratio. The second legs are typically longer than the first legs! But that is not all; bitcoin has a higher probability of four-leg moves versus three-leg moves. Consequently, this trade could turn out to be highly profitable after some time. One aspect of risk is the relationship between the size of a potential down move of price and the size of a likely up move. We find bitcoins’ upward potential much more significant than gold for its fundamental characteristics and stellar outperforming history percentagewise. Bitcoin, best in play: Summing it up, bitcoin might not be at its lowest retracement levels yet. Still, its powerful potential in risk/reward-ratio and as an overall risk hedge makes it best in play. We share a low-risk cost averaging in strategy in our free Telegram channel. We find that allocation of funds should be more dominant towards bitcoin. In addition, holding some cash as much as money is deflating can still be a good strategy. Cash is king to purchase desired goods and vehicles, especially when those are even more depressed. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 22nd, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin correction, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, NASDAQ, quad exit, S&P 500, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments

Let‘s Try Again

Monica Kingsley 23.02.2022 15:53

S&P 500 had a wild swings day, and didn‘t rise convincingly – credit markets didn‘t move correspondingly either. The upswing looks postponed unless fresh signs of broad weakness arrive. Yesterday‘s session didn‘t tell much either way – the countdown to the upswing materializing, is on even though tech didn‘t take advantage of higher bond prices. That can still come.VIX though reversed to the downside, and the relatively calmer session we‘re likely going to experience today, would be consistent with a modest attempt for stocks to move higher. I‘m though not looking for a monstrous rally, even though we‘re trading closer to the lower end of the wide S&P 500 range for this year than to its upper border. The 4,280s are so far holding but as the Mar FOMC approaches, we‘re likely to see a fresh turn south in the 500-strong index. For now, the talk of raising rates is on the back burner – Europe is in the spotlight.Note that the flight to safety on rising tensions (Treasuries, gold and oil up) didn‘t benefit the dollar. Coupled with the yields reprieve, that makes for further precious metals gains – the bull run won‘t be toppled if soothing news arrives. Likewise crude oil isn‘t going to tank below $90, and remain there. Commodities can be counted on to keep running – led by energy and agrifoods, with base metals (offering a helping hand to silver) in tow. As I wrote weeks ago, this is where the real gains are to be found.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 volume moved a little up, meaning the buying interest is still there – convincing signs of a trend change are though yet not apparent. Should prices prove to have trouble breaking lower over the next 1-2 days, this could still turn out a good place for a little long positon.Credit MarketsHYG continues basing, and keeps trading in a risk-off fashion, which is why I can‘t be wildly bullish stocks for now. Stock market gains are likely to remain subdued, noticeably subdued – as a bare minimum for today.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals fireworks continue, but a little reprieve is developing – nothing though that would break the bull. The run is only starting, and would continue through the rate raising cycle.Crude OilCrude oil is fairly well bid, and doesn‘t appear to be really dipping any time soon. Oil stocks are preparing for an upswing, and would remain one of the best performing S&P 500 sectors. Tripple digit oil is a question of time.CopperCopper‘s moment in the spotlight is approaching as commodities keeps pushing higher, and base metals are breaking up. All of these factors are inflationary.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are attempting to move up today, and further gains are likely. I‘m though looking for the 50-day moving average in Bitcoin (corresponding roughly to the mid Feb lows in Ethereum) to prove an obstacle.SummaryS&P 500 didn‘t break to new lows overnight, and appears to be picking up somewhat today. The anticipated rebound might materialize later today, and would require bond participation to be credible. I‘m not looking for sharp gains within this upswing though – the correction looks very much to have further to run. It‘s commodities and precious metals where the largest gains are to be made, with the European tensions taking the focus off inflation (momentarily). The pressure on the Fed to act decisively, is though still on as various credit spreads tell – and the same goes for the compressed yield curve speaking volumes about the (precarious) state of the real economy.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Having A Look At The Markets Considering Tensions, COVID-19 And National Banks Decisions

How Did Markets Reacted To The Latest Events In The Eastern Europe?

Walid Koudmani 24.02.2022 14:22

The worst case scenario - Russian invasion of Ukraine - is materializing. We try to analyze its consequences for the economy and financial markets Oil price increases past $100 per barrel Russia is a key player on the energy commodities market, especially important for Europe. Situation on the oil market proves it - oil prices jumped above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014. Russia is exporting around 5 million barrels of oil each day, around 5% of global demand. Around a half of that is exported to the European Union. If the West decides to cut Russia off the SWIFT settlements system, Russian exports to the European Union could be halted. In such a scenario oil prices could jump $20-30 per barrel. In our opinion, the war risk premium included in current oil barrel prices amounts to $15-20. Europe is the main recipient of Russian oil. Source: Bloomberg, XTB Research Gold and palladium rally Conflict is the main driver of moves on the gold market. It is not the first time when gold proves to be a good store of value at times of geopolitical conflicts. Ounce of gold trades over 3% higher today, near $1,970, and just slightly over $100 below its all-time highs. Russia is an important producer of palladium, an important metal for the automotive sector. Source: Bloomberg, XTB Research Russia is a significant producer of palladium, which is a key metal in production of catalytic converters for the automotive sector. Palladium prices rallied almost 8% today. Fear means sell-off on the market Global stock markets are taking a hit not seen since 2020. However, panic is not as big as it was in early-2020. Uncertainty is the most important driver for global stock markets now as investors do not know what will come next. Correction on Nasdaq-100 futures deepened past 20% today. A big part of this drop, however, was caused by expectations of Fed tightening. DAX futures dropped around 15% since mid-January and trade near pre-pandemic highs. DE30 trades to halt decline at pre-pandemic high. Source: xStation5 Business in Ukraine is in danger It should not come as a surprise that Russian companies and companies with big exposure to Russia are the ones taking the biggest hit. Russian RTS dropped over 60% off the October 2021 high and briefly traded below 2020 lows! Polymetal International is a company worth mentioning - stock is plunging over 30% on London Stock Exchange as market fears sanctions will hit Anglo-Russian companies. Renault is also taking a hit as Russia is the second biggest market for the company. Banks with large exposure to Russia - UniCredit and Societe Generale - are also dropping hard. Even higher inflation From an economic point of view the situation is clear - military conflict will generate a new inflationary impulse. Prices of almost all commodities are trading higher, especially energy commodities. However, in case of commodity markets, a lot will depend on how conflict impacts logistics. Keep in mind that global logistics have not recovered from Covid-19 hit yet and now another negative factor is surfacing. According to the New York Fed index, global supply chains are the most tight on record. Central bankers' headache Covid-19 panic has been very short-lived, thanks to an enormous support offered by central banks. However, such an action is unlikely now. As conflict is inflationary and has a bigger impact on supply and logistics rather than demand, inflation becomes an even bigger problem for major central banks. On the other hand, quick tightening monetary policy would only magnify market turmoil. In our opinion, major central banks will continue with announced policy tightening. Risk of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed in March dropped but a 25 bp rate hike looks like a done deal. What's next? A key question for global markets now is - how much will the conflict escalate? An answer to this question will be a key to calming the markets. Once it is answered, calculations of impact on sanctions and speculations over changes in economic policy will begin.

It Begins

Monica Kingsley 24.02.2022 16:00

S&P 500 reprieve that wasn‘t – the buyers didn‘t arrive, and the overnight military action sparking serious asset moves, shows that buying the dip would have been a bad idea. And it still is. Risk-on assets are likely to suffer, and I‘m not looking for a sharp, V-shaped rebound. The partial retracement seen in cryptos wouldn‘t translate to much upside in paper assets – it will likely be sold into as the bottom would take time to form. The safe haven premium seen in precious metals, crude oil and other real assets would ebb and flow, but a higher base has been established. The world has changed overnight, and recognition thereof is still pending.I think it‘s clear why I had been derisking as much as possible, wary of volatility both ways in paper assets, and betting instead on a mix of real assets. This has been hugely paying off to subscribers and readers likewise favoring gold and crude oil with some copper added for good measure.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis isn‘t how an S&P 500 bottom looks like – downswing continues with more volatility ahead.Credit MarketsHYG is going down again, and credit markets are turning risk-off – look for Treasuries to do relatively better next, with little impact upon stocks.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals fireworks continue, and the upswing got a poweful ally. Whatever retracement seen next, would be marginal in light of the developments.Crude OilCrude oil upswing can be counted on to continue, and oil stocks would remain among the best performing S&P 500 pockets. Black gold is though notorious for its wild volatility, and the coming days won‘t be an exception.CopperCopper upswing would take time to develop, especially now – but the breakout in base metals is on, the inflationary messaging is still there and thriving.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos aren‘t in a rally mode, but are attempting to put in a low. I don‘t think it would hold, the dust hasn‘t settled yet.SummaryS&P 500 is plunging, and attempting to base, but more selling would inevitably hit. The overnight dust hasn‘t settled yet, but the panic lows would not happen today. Even if it weren‘t for geopolitics, stocks were in rough waters for weeks already, in a serious, yields and liquidity driven correction, with a slowing real economy on top. For all the short-term focus, the buying opportunity would materialize only once the Fed turns – by autumn 2022. The best places to be in right now, are those presented below – precious metals and commodities – as inflation fires continue to rage on.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

COT Soft Commodities Speculators pushed their Corn bullish bets higher this week

Invest Macro 26.02.2022 18:24

BRENT Nears $95, SWIFT Had Been Blocked, XAU And USD Are Likely To Stand Strong Amid Tensions

Walid Koudmani 28.02.2022 13:53

While stocks saw some signs of recovery towards the end of last week with Asian, European and US markets recovering some of their losses following the invasion of Ukraine from Russia, stock prices could have a very difficult week ahead as tensions escalate and more sanctions continue to be announced. Over the weekend, the European union announced a variety of sanctions on Russia including limiting it’s access to EU airspace and prohibiting certain banks from utilizing the SWIFT banking system, a move which could have catastrophic effects on the russian economy and was by some considered to be on the most potentially effective deterrents. Investors are taking that into consideration and while the war for Ukraine rages on, this week is set to be one of the most volatile across markets with the prices of stocks and commodities being extremely susceptible to any kind of sanction and geopolitical instability. If the situation continues to escalate, risky assets like stocks and crypto currencies could be seeing another week of losses while investors continue to rush to safe havens like gold and the USD which benefited greatly last week from the shocking turn of events. Oil prices remain under pressure after Brent retreats from $100 While oil prices managed to decline as recent news emerged of potential talks between Russia and Ukraine to deescalate the situation after markets panicked following the invasion, the situation remains extremely uncertain. Brent is trading around the $95 area after pulling back from the multi-year high reached as supply concerns reached critical levels following the invasion of Ukraine which sparked a series of sanctions from western countries. Due to the fact that the Russian economy is so heavily reliant on its energy exports, much of which goes to Europe, those fears could persist throughout the week as a lack of resolution could only serve to further destabilize the situation. While there are potential alternatives available to European economies, many of them are costly and impractical for the time being and as it appears that at this point almost nothing is off the table, it could lead oil prices to retest those highs from 2014 and potentially even break past them.

S&P 500 (SPX) And Credit Markets With Moves Up Finally, Bitcoin (BTC) Seems To Be Vigilant

Monica Kingsley 28.02.2022 16:00

S&P 500 didn‘t correct much intraday, and the risk-on turn has continued unabated with value pulling ahead sharply – unlike the day before when the revesal came about because of tech. The dust is settling in the market‘s mind, VIX has indeed moved and the dollar weakened noticeably. That was the subject of Friday‘s analysis – the disappearing safe haven premium over many assets such as gold, crude oil and Treasuries (Treasuries though kept their cool the most, not losing the focus on Fed‘s tightening). Risk-on appetite returned to stocks with a vengeance, and market breadth has significantly improved – within the context of the ongoing correction, must be said. While we made local lows on Thursday after all, the upside momentum is likely to slow down next – this week would bring a consolidation within a very headline sensitive environment. It‘s looking good for the bulls at the moment – till the dynamic of events beyond markets changes. Inflation isn‘t wavering, and I‘m not looking for its meaningful deceleration given the events since Thursday, no. Friday is likely to mark a buying opportunity beyond oil and copper – these longs have very good prospects. Another part of the S&P 500 upswing explanation were the still fine fresh orders data – while the real economy has noticeably decelerated (and Q1 GDP growth would be underwhelming), solid figures would return in the latter quarters of 2022. That‘s also behind the gold downswing on Friday, which hadn‘t been confirmed by the miners – the very bright future ahead for precious metals is undisputable. And the same goes for crude oil as oil stocks foretell – the fresh long crude trade together with long S&P 500 one, are both solidly in the black already.. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Sharp S&P 500 upswing on solid volume – the gains can continue but their pace would slow down. Negative sentiment is departing stocks as the existing bad news has been priced in. The pendulum is swinging the other way now. Credit Markets HYG is confirming the stock market upswing, but bonds are remaining more cautious overall – it‘s that the focus would shift over the coming 2 weeks again to the Fed. The yield spread keeps compressing and the 2-year bond didn‘t stop pressuring the Fed. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals have corrected a little but the upswing goes on – GDX performance is a good omen. The decline in prices wasn‘t sold heavily into anyway – we‘re still moving higher next as the rate raising cycle start is soon here. Crude Oil Crude oil bears are totally unconvincing, proving that the prior price upswing was about way more than geopolitical uncertainty – the chart remains strongly bullish, and we have higher to run still. Copper Copper upswing is indeed taking time to develop, but commodities strength remains in spite of the daily setback, which just illustrates the risk-on euphoria in stocks. The commodities upleg hasn‘t run its course, and the red metal would join in. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are refusing to extend Sunday‘s decline – while the worst appears to be over, the short-term direction can turn out in both directions. I‘m though slightlly favoring the bulls. Summary S&P 500 turnaround continues, and price gains are frontrunning the events on the ground. The upswing is vulnerable – to a consolidation at most as a full reversal would require fresh setbacks, including in Asia. Risk-on trades have the momentum, and credit markets agree. It certainly looks like a good time to take advantage of the precious metals and commodities discounts as momentary optimism in the markets that has nothing to do with the progress on inflation. Further, we‘re still in the real economy slowdown phase, and the Fed hasn‘t even started hiking yet. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Bitcoin (BTC) To US Dollar (USD) And BTCUSD/XAUUSD Shown In The Charts

Korbinian Koller 01.03.2022 12:27

Bitcoin, buy the news With news, volatility is typically increasing, and a larger volume of transactions is at play. For amateurs, data evaluation in a turmoiled market environment generally results in procrastination of execution, meaning no trading or chasing trades. Professionals find necessary liquidity to exit a trade or use volatility to fade moves on less risk for entries. Last week’s invasion of Ukraine was no different. Only those prepared with a plan were able to position themselves in bitcoin. Bitcoin, daily chart, the giveaway: Crypto markets, daily charts as of February 28th, 2022. A giveaway was a widespread larger supply zone throughout the crypto sector (green horizontal lines on the daily charts above), and preset buy entries in the crypto space were getting triggered. Inter-market relationships stack the odds of placing a successful trade. Bitcoin, weekly chart, entry target zone within reach: Bitcoin, weekly chart as of February 28th, 2022. With our entry target range nearly reached (see our previous chart book release), we were ready to act, knowing a possible larger time frame tuning point was a possibility. You might argue that the price has not penetrated the entry zone. Still, at a closer look, you will identify that due to exuberant volume on the surprise news day, the supply zone values had changed to provide significant support right at the rim of our initially planned zone. Charts need to be consistently updated to stay accurate! Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, weekly chart, another edge stacked: Bitcoin versus Gold in USD, weekly chart as of March 1st, 2022. Precisely on the day in question, we also got a hedge rotational “buy signal” for bitcoin versus gold on the weekly chart. Consequently, this signal provided another inter-market relationship edge that supported our decision-making for aggressive entry. What we can see on the chart above that compares bitcoin with gold is that since institutional money has become a massive part of bitcoin holdings, these more significant funds rotate their money in and out between gold and bitcoin. Following the yellow line, one can see prices being high to buy bitcoin with gold at double top and acquiring bitcoin at a double bottom is a way to take advantage of cheaper bitcoin prices in relationship to gold. For us, a good reason to assume that gold holders might switch to bitcoin for the next foreseeable timeframe, to hedge their wealth preservation portfolios. Bitcoin, daily chart, profits booked and room to go: Bitcoin, weekly chart as of March 1st, 2022. The weekly chart above shows four more reloads within the last five days. All trades have been risk mitigated with our quad exit strategy. Consequently, the remaining position was market money at no risk to us. We posted daily calls to prepare interested parties for possible reentries. Prices have already advanced by nearly 30% from the lows. This preparedness and merely following rules allow ending up being positioned and not dependent on whether a turning point matures. Even in a negative outcome, profits have been made. With a bit of luck, these remainder positions can go a long way and provide substantial additional profits. In addition, one is positioned early before a trend is even established. Bitcoin, buy the news: We must confront opinion-forming debates led by ego (the need to be right). We use reconditioning behavior to achieve best results. The goal in mind is to “erase” intuitive responses and an execution time delay leading to sub-par entry timing. Consequently, consistent extracting of profits from the market is possible. At Midas Touch, we have made it our business to share our entry and exit timing and their underlying principles in our free Telegram channel to empower our clients and followers to become successful self-directed investors. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 1st, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, S&P 500, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Told You, Risk On

Monica Kingsley 01.03.2022 15:45

S&P 500 erased opening downside, not unexpectedly. Markets say we‘ve turned the corner, and while the medium-term correction isn‘t over, we‘re going higher for now. The tired performance in credit markets suggests that the pace of the upswing would indeed likely slow, but the dips are being bought – even the 4,300 overnight level held unchallenged.VIX is slowly calming down, and it wouldn‘t be a one-way ride. I hate to say it, but we‘re trading closer to the more complacent end of the volatility spectrum – that‘s though in line with my assumption of toned down price appreciation expectations that I discussed on Sunday and yesterday:(…) While we made local lows on Thursday after all, the upside momentum is likely to slow down next – this week would bring a consolidation within a very headline sensitive environment. It‘s looking good for the bulls at the moment – till the dynamic of events beyond markets changes.Inflation isn‘t wavering, and I‘m not looking for its meaningful deceleration given the events since Thursday, no. Friday is likely to mark a buying opportunity beyond oil and copper – these longs have very good prospects. Another part of the S&P 500 upswing explanation were the still fine fresh orders data – while the real economy has noticeably decelerated (and Q1 GDP growth would be underwhelming), solid figures would return in the latter quarters of 2022. That‘s also behind the gold downswing on Friday, which hadn‘t been confirmed by the miners – the very bright future ahead for precious metals is undisputable. And the same goes for crude oil as oil stocks foretell – the fresh long crude trade together with long S&P 500 one, are both solidly in the black already.Precious metals have found a floor, and aren‘t selling off either. In fact, they are looking at a great week ahead, and the same goes for crude oil followed to a lesser degree by copper. Weekend developments on the financial front triggered a rush into cryptos, and the bullish prospects I presented yesterday, are coming to fruition.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookDaily S&P 500 consolidation as the bulls did shake off the opening setback rather easily – and the same goes for the late session trip approaching 4,310s. Expecting more volatility of the current flavor, and higher prices then.Credit MarketsHYG managed to close above Friday‘s values, and the overall bond market strength bodes well for risk appetite ahead. Let‘s consolidate first, and march higher later.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are consolidating the high ground gained, miners aren‘t yielding, and silver weakness yesterday actually bodes well for the very short term. Launching pad before the next upleg.Crude OilCrude oil bears have a hard time from keeping black gold below $100. The table is clearly set for further gains – the chart can be hardly more bullish.CopperCopper is a laggard, but will still participate in the upswing. Its current underperformance as highlighten by yesterday‘s downswing, is a bit too odd, i.e. bound to be reversed.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto bulls were indeed the stronger party, and similarly to gold, it‘s hard to imagine a deep dive coming to frution. I‘m looking for the safety trade to be be ebbing and flowing, now with some crypto participation sprinkled on top.SummaryS&P 500 turnaround goes on, and we‘re undergoing a consolidation that‘s as calm as can be given the recent volatility. Credit markets and the dollar though continue favoring the paper asset bulls now, but their gains would pale in comparison with select commodities such as oil and gold‘s newfound floor. Even agrifoods look to be sold down a bit too hard, and I‘m not looking for them to be languishing next as much as they have been over the last two trading days. Cryptos upswing highlights the present global uncertainties faced – as I have written on Thursday that the world has changed, the same applies for weekend banking events being reflected in the markets yesterday.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Real Assets, Bonds and New Profits

Monica Kingsley 02.03.2022 15:49

S&P 500 broke through 4,350s in what appears a back and forth consolidation, for now. Credit markets aren‘t leading to the downside – HYG merely corrected within the risk-on sentiment. Stocks and bonds are starting to live with the new realities, and aren‘t undergoing tectonic shifts either way no matter what‘s happening in the real world. Expect to see some chop not of the most volatile flavor next, and for the bulls to step in in the near future.What‘s most interesting about bonds now, is the relenting pressure on the Fed to raise rates – the 2-year yield is moving down noticeably, and that means much practical progress on fighting inflation can‘t be expected. Not that there was much to start with, but the expectations of the hawkish Fed talk turning into action, are being dialed back. The current geopolitical events provide a scene to which attention is fixated while inflation fires keep raging on with renewed vigor (beyond energies) – just as I was calling for a little deceleration in CPI towards the year end bringing it to probably 5-6%, this figure is starting to look too optimistic on the price stability front.Predictable consequence are strong appreciation days across the board in commodities and precious metals – let‘s enjoy the sizable open profits especially in oil and copper. I told you weeks ago that real assets are where to look for in portfolio gains – and even the modest S&P 500 long profits taken off the table yesterday, are taking my portfolio performance chart to fresh highs. I hope you‘ve been enjoying my calls, and are secure in the turmoil around. Way more profits are on the way, and I am not even discussing the lastest agrifoods calls concerning wheat and corn, for all the right reasons (just check out the key exporters overview)…Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis time, the S&P 500 bulls didn‘t shake off the selling pressure – the broad retreat though smacks of temporary setback. As in that the direction to the downside hasn‘t been decided yet – I‘m looking for the buyers to dip their toes here.Credit MarketsHYG downswing didn‘t attract too many sellers, and was partially bought, which means that the pendulum is ready to shift (have a go at shifting) the other way now.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are doing just great, and can be counted on to extend gains. Remember about the rate raising reappreciation that I talked in the long opening part of today‘s analysis – at central banks, that‘s where to look financially.Crude OilCrude oil bears have been taken to the woodshed, except that not at all discreetly. Let‘s keep riding this bull that had brought great profits already, for some more – as I have learned, I was a lone voice calling for more upside before last week‘s events.CopperCopper is a laggard, but still taking part in the upswing. The prior underperformance which I took issue with yesterday, was indeed a bit too odd.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto bulls are consolidating well reasoned and deserved gains, and the circumstances don‘t favor a steep downswing really. The current tight range is likely to be resolved to the upside in due course.SummaryS&P 500 turnaround is not a rickety-free ride, but goes on at its own shaky pace. Stocks are likely to consolidate today as bonds turn a little more in the risk-on side, which reflects last but not least the looming reassessment of hawkish Fed policies. That‘s where the puck is (and will increasingly be even more so as Wayne Gretzky would say) financially, and I discussed that at length in the opening part of today‘s analysis – have a good look. Precious metals and commodities already know they won‘t be crushed by any new Paul Volcker. Enjoy the profitable rides presented !Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Markets Situation, Federal Reserve, Crude, EURJPY, Gazprom And More - "The Trade Off" Is Here!

Chris Weston 03.03.2022 11:19

Episode 012 of ‘The Trade Off’ is here! . This weekly #trading series features Blake Morrow (ForexAnalytix) and our very own Chris Weston, as they engage in an energetic discussion of the financial markets — what’s hot, what’s not and always breaking down the trade. Find out more at https://thetradeoff.tv 00:00 Intro 02:21 Topical Thunder: Markets are alive! 05:48 US Dollar 09:06 Central Banks 12:45 Copper 15:37 That's a Setup: Crude 18:00 Russell 2000 20:13 Palladium 22:22 USDCAD 24:41 Chris' Play of the Day: EURAUD 26:00 Blake's Play of the Day: EURJPY 27:23 Wrap-up Prefer to listen rather than watch? The Trade Off is now also a podcast! Listen either Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast... Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7gzvAJx... Sitting on the sidelines but ready not to start trading yourself? Don't miss next week's beginner webinar on day trading strategies! Watch it here on Wed 9 March at 8pm AEDT: https://youtu.be/Uzsot7qiw5g The Trade Off is powered by Pepperstone. Pepperstone is an online FX/CFD broker providing traders across the globe with cutting-edge technology to trade the world’s markets. We’re driven to provide traders with low-cost pricing across all instruments including FX and CFDs (crypto, commodities, indices).

PPI Of The Euro Area Is 30.6% Higher Than At The Same Time The Year Before

Alex Kuptsikevich 03.03.2022 14:16

Euro area producer prices accelerated their rise in January - a significant early signal of a further increase in consumer inflation. A fresh Eurostat report showed that PPI rose by 5.2% in the first month of the year, twice as much as expected and by 30.6% to the same month a year earlier. Until the middle of last year, the year-over-year growth rate had not exceeded 10% in the indicator's 40-year history. However, the combination of a low base and subsequent supply-chain disruptions for some commodities and energy are feeding this wave. The latest spike in gas prices and Brent’s jump by a third since the start of February indicates that price pressure promises to remain extremely high next month. A couple of months ago, this would have been good news for the euro, as markets would have reinforced expectations of policy tightening. Now the figures point to a looming inflationary horror in the eurozone, which the ECB is unlikely to tackle in order not to multiply the region's eco

Surging Commodities

Monica Kingsley 03.03.2022 15:55

S&P 500 returned above 4,350s as credit markets indeed weren‘t leading to the downside. Consolidation now followed by more upside, that‘s the most likely scenario next. Yesterday‘s risk-on turn was reflected also in value rising more than tech. Anyway, the Nasdaq upswing is a good omen for the bulls in light of the TLT downswing – Treasuries are bucking the Powell newfound rate raising hesitation – inflation ambiguity is back. The yield curve is still compressing, and the pressure on the Fed to act, goes on – looking at where real asset prices are now, it had been indeed unreasonable to expect inflation to slow down meaningfully. Told you so – as I have written yesterday:(…) What‘s most interesting about bonds now, is the relenting pressure on the Fed to raise rates – the 2-year yield is moving down noticeably, and that means much practical progress on fighting inflation can‘t be expected. Not that there was much to start with, but the expectations of the hawkish Fed talk turning into action, are being dialed back. The current geopolitical events provide a scene to which attention is fixated while inflation fires keep raging on with renewed vigor (beyond energies) – just as I was calling for a little deceleration in CPI towards the year end bringing it to probably 5-6%, this figure is starting to look too optimistic on the price stability front.Predictable consequence are strong appreciation days across the board in commodities and precious metals. – let‘s enjoy the sizable open profits especially in oil and copper. I told you weeks ago that real assets are where to look for in portfolio gains – and even the modest S&P 500 long profits taken off the table yesterday, are taking my portfolio performance chart to fresh highs. Crude oil keeps rising as if there‘s no tomorrow, copper is joining in, agrifoods are on fire – and precious metals continue being very well bid. Cryptos aren‘t selling off either. Anyway, this is the time of real assets...Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls are back, and I‘m looking for consolidation around these levels. The very short-term direction isn‘t totally clear, but appears favoring the bulls unless corporate junk bonds crater. Not too likely.Credit MarketsHYG performance shows rising risk appetite, but the waning volume is a sign of caution for today. Unless LQD and TLT rise as well, HYG looks short-term stretched, therefore I‘m looking for consolidation today.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are doing great, and they merely corrected yesterday – both gold and silver can be counted on to extend gains if you look at the miners‘ message. As the prospects of vigorous Fed action gets dialed back, they stand to benefit even more.Crude OilCrude oil surge is both justified and unprecedented – and oil stocks aren‘t weakening. It looks like we would consolidate in the volatile range around $110 next.CopperCopper is joining in the upswing increasingly more, and the buyer‘s return before the close looks sufficient to maintain upside momentum that had been questioned earlier in the day. The break higher out of the long consolidation, is approaching.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto buyers are consolidating well deserved gains, and the bullish flag is being formed. The sellers are nowhere to be seen at the moment – I‘m still looking for the current tight range to be resolved to the upside next.SummaryS&P 500 has reached a short-term resistance, which would be overcome only should bonds give their blessing. It‘s likely these would confirm the risk-on turn, but HYG looks a bit too extended – its consolidation of high ground gained, could slow the stock bulls somewhat. The risk appetite and „rush to safety“ in commodities and precious metals goes on, more or less squeezing select assets such as crude oil. The CRB Index upswing is though of the orderly and broad advance flavor, and does reflect the prospects of inflation remaining elevated for longer than foreseen by the mainstream.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD consolidates just below $25.50 eyeing breakout to fresh multi-month highs

FXStreet News 03.03.2022 16:07

Silver is consolidating close to multi-month highs not far below $25.50 as markets remain intensely focused on the Ukraine conflict. Technicians have noted that spot silver prices have over the last few days formed an ascending triangle. Upcoming tier one US data releases (ISM Services on Thursday, NFP on Friday) will play second fiddle for geopolitics. Spot silver (XAG/USD) prices are consolidating close to multi-month highs with the $25.50 per troy ounce mark for now acting as resistance, but ongoing nervousness about the ongoing Ukraine conflict and its economic impact underpinning the safe-haven metal for now. At current levels in the $25.30s, spot silver trades broadly flat on the day, with focus for now on talks between Ukrainian and Russian delegations in the hopes that some sort of ceasefire might be in the offing. Given maximalist demands still being made by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, demands which the Ukrainian government is very unlikely to accept, hopes that a broad ceasefire agreement can be reached are slim. That suggests no end in sight for the rally in the prices of commodities exported by Russia (oil, gas, various agricultural products and base metals), which will likely keep assets deemed as offering inflation protection in demand (like silver). Technicians have noted that spot silver prices have over the last few days formed an ascending triangle, a pattern that is more often than not indicative of a bullish breakout. Technical buying on a break above the $25.50 could dovetail nicely with the fundamentals if the Ukraine conflict continues to intensify and Western nations are expected to continue tightening the sanctions noose around Russia’s neck. Silver can move aggressively and some bulls likely have their sights set on mid-2021 highs in the $28.00 area. With focus so heavily on geopolitics, upcoming tier one US data releases (ISM Services PMI on Thursday and the official jobs report on Friday) and the second day of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before the US Congress will take something of a back seat. Powell explained on Wednesday that current uncertainties regarding the impact of the Ukraine war would not deter the Fed from getting moving regarding removing policy stimulus. An expected strong jobs report on Friday should support this stance and probably won’t dent silver’s near-term appeal much.

Back to Risk-Off

Monica Kingsley 04.03.2022 15:50

S&P 500 consolidation isn‘t turning out well for the bulls as 4,300 can be easily broken again if I look at credit markets‘ posture. Treasuries just aren‘t sliding no matter the Fed‘s ambiguity on inflation, let alone markets sniffing out rate hike ideas getting revisited. Still, tech gave up opening gains, and closed on a weak note while commodities and precious metals maintained high ground, and the dollar continued rising.The odds are stacked against paper market bulls, and as I had been telling you weeks ago already, this is the time of real assets outperformance. In this sense, miners‘ leadership is a great confirmation of more strength to come, of inflation to continue… Everyone‘s free to make their own opinion after the State of the Union address.On the bright side, the flood of recently closed series of trades spanning stocks, precious metals, oil and copper, has resulted in sharp equity curve gains – and more good calls are in the making, naturally:Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is facing a setback, which could turn a lot worse if the sentiment turn continues. Odds are it would, and we would see some selling going into the weekend.Credit MarketsHYG refused to extend opening gains, and the message is clear, and also a reaction to the Fed‘s pronouncements. Treasuries though are more careful in the tightening prospects assessment – risk-off in bonds and the dollar continues.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are doing great, and are likely to continue rising no matter what the dollar does. There is no good reason for a selloff if you look around objectively. Miners are confirming, the upleg is underway.Crude OilCrude oil upswing isn‘t yet done, it would be premature to say so. It seems though that the time of volatile chop and new base building can continue – oil stocks are the barometer.CopperCopper outperformance leaves me a bit cautious – the advance is likely to slow down and get challenged next. It was a good run, and the red metal isn‘t at all done in the medium-term.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto downswing is reaching a bit farther than I would have been comfortable with. The buyers are welcome to step in on good volume, but I‘m not expecting miracles today or through the weekend.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are losing the initiative, and neither credit markets nor the dollar favor a turnaround today. Treasuries rising in spite of the Fed‘s messaging are also casting a clear verdict, and the yield curve compression continues. The risk-off sentiment that is getting an intermezzo here and there, is likely to rule unless the Fed makes a profound turn before the Mar FOMC. And given the inflation dynamics with all the consequences beyond economics, that‘s unlikely to happen. Markets are thus likely to continue fearing the confluence of events till...Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Crude Oil Price (BRENT And USOIL) Hit 14-Year-High. Ca. +9% On Opening

Mikołaj Marcinowski 07.03.2022 10:02

Russia-Ukraine tensions keeps affecting markets, especially commodities, which are the most vulnerable to such conflicts. As we know international sanctions are being introduced so global inflation gains momentum. Crude Oil Price – Implications: UKOIL gained Ca. 8% on today’s opening, however, as the chart (courtesy of TradingView.com) shows, a small downtrend appeared sometime late. BRENT’s west brother WTI (USOIL) increased even more – almost 10% As Patrick De Haan claims: Patrick De Haan's Twitt

S&P 500 Is Likely Recovering, Gold (XAUUSD), Copper And Crude Oil (WTI) Close To Out Of The Park Play

Monica Kingsley 07.03.2022 15:47

S&P 500 recovered most of the intraday downside, and in spite of value driving the upswing, there is something odd about it. Tech barely moved higher during the day, and the heavyweights continue being beaten similarly to biotech compared to the rest of healthcare. The key oddity though was in the risk-off posture in bonds, and the Treasuries upswing that Nasdaq failed to get inspired with. If TLT has a message to drive home after the latest Powell pronouncements, it‘s that the odds of a 50bp rate hike in Mar (virtual certainty less than two weeks ago, went down considerably) – it‘s almost a coin toss now, and as the FOMC time approaches, the Fed would probably grow more cautious (read dovish and not hawkish) in its assessments, no matter the commodities appreciation or supply chains status. Yes, neither of these, nor inflation is going away before the year‘s end – they are here to stay for a long time to come. Looking at the events of late, I have to dial back the stock market outlook when it comes to the degree of appreciation till 2022 is over – I wouldn‘t be surprised to see the S&P 500 to retreat slightly vs. the Jan 2022 open. Yes, not even the better 2H 2022 prospects would erase the preceding setback. Which stocks would do best then? Here are my key 4 tips – energy, materials, in general value, and smallcaps. But the true winners of the stagflationary period is of course going to be commodities and precious metals. And that‘s where the bulk of recent gains that I brought you, were concentrated in. More is to come, and it‘s gold and silver that are catching real fire here. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 setback was repelled on Friday, but I‘m looking for the subsequent upswing to fizzle out – we still have to go down in Mar, and that would be the low. Credit Markets HYG is clearly on the defensive, and TLT reassessing rate hike prospects. This doesn‘t bode well for the S&P 500 bulls. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are doing great, and will likely continue rising no matter what the dollar does – my Friday‘s sentence is still fitting today. I‘m looking for further price gains – the upleg has been measured and orderly so far. Crude Oil Crude oil upswing still hasn‘t lost steam, and still can surprise on the upside. Slowdown in the pace of gains, or a sideways consolidation, would be the healthy move next. Jittery nerves can calm down a little today. Copper Copper isn‘t rising as fast as other base metals, which are one of the key engines of commodities appreciation. The run is respectable, and happening on quite healthy volume – if we don‘t see its meaningful consolidation soon, the red metal would be finally breaking out of its long range here. Bitcoin and Ethereum While I wasn‘t expecting miracles Friday or through the weekend, cryptos are stabilizing, and can extend very modest gains today and tomorrow. Summary S&P 500 is likely to rise next, only to crater lower still this month. It may even undershoot prior Thursday‘s lows, but I‘m not looking for that to happen. The sentiment is very negative already, the yield curve keeps compressing, commodities are rising relentlessly, and all we got is a great inflation excuse / smoke screen. Inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, and supply chain disruptions and other geopolitical events can and do exacerbate that. Just having a look at the rising dollar when rate hike prospects are getting dialed back, tells the full risk-off story of the moment, further highlighted by the powder keg that precious metals are. And silver isn‘t yet outperforming copper, which is something I am looking for to change as we go by. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

The Swing Overview - Week 9

Purple Trading 07.03.2022 20:22

The Swing Overview - Week 9 The war in Ukraine continues, and although we all want this tragic event to be ended immediately, but unfortunately, according to last statements of Russian officials, it looks like the war will drag on for a longer period of time. Investors have reacted to this development by selling risk assets, including the Czech koruna. Stock indices are losing ground and the DAX in particular has been under heavy pressure. On the other hand, commodities such as oil, gold, and coal are strengthening strongly. Somewhat surprising is the development in the Australian dollar, which usually weakens in the events of geopolitical uncertainties. However, there is a reason for its current rise. More on this in our article. Conflict in Ukraine Vladimir Putin probably did not expect to encounter such a brave resistance from Ukraine and that almost the whole world would send Russia into isolation through significant sanctions. The list of companies and actions that have cut ties with Russia is growing day by the day and Western companies are leaving Russia. Thus, for Russians, foreign goods (food, clothing, furniture, electronics, cars) will gradually become very rare. Probably the strongest sanction that Russia has felt so far, was the freeze of the Russian Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves. In response, the Russian ruble began to depreciate significantly on February 28, 2022, and has already lost more than 30% of its pre-invasion value. In response, the Russian Central Bank intervened by raising the interest rate to 20%, which temporarily halted the ruble's fall. Figure 1: The Russian ruble paired with the USD and the euro Meanwhile, Western countries have not exhausted all options to stop Russia in this war through economic sanctions in case of further escalation of the conflict yet. The fact that European countries might stop taking Russian gas is also at stake. This would, of course, have a very significant impact on the entire European economy. However, these are still just some economic losses, which can not be compared at all with the losses of lives experienced by the unprecedentedly attacked Ukraine. In any case, this crisis seems to have the potential to surpass in its consequences the crisis that occurred in Russia in 1998, which led to inflation exceeding 80% and central bank interest rates reaching 150%. Data from the US economy The ISM manufacturing sentiment indicator for February came in at 58.6 which is better than expected and points to an optimistic development of the US economy. In the labour market sector, the ADP (non-farm job change) indicator was reported, which showed that 475 thousand jobs were created in America in February (compared to 509 thousand in January). The number of unemployment claims reached 215 thousand last week, which was less than expected 226 thousand. Thus, the data show that the US economy is doing well so far and the US Fed is going to raise interest rates at its next meeting on March 16, 2022. Jerome Powell said that he would support a 0.25% rate hike. Powell also said that the war in Ukraine means significant uncertainty for monetary policy. The US dollar and bond yields The US dollar continues to strengthen, as the USD index shows. In addition to the expected US interest rate hike, the US dollar bullishness is explained by demand for US government bonds in times of uncertainty. Demand for these bonds then pushes down their yields, which continue to fall. Figure 2: 10-year government bond yield on the 4H chart and USD index on the daily chart Index SP500 The US SP 500 index moved in a consolidation range last week. This shows that investors have so far viewed the conflict in Ukraine as an event that is more or less a regional event and therefore saw cheap stocks as a buying opportunity. However, the sanctions adopted by Western countries will of course also have an impact on the global economy, especially if the conflict deepens further. This concern was then reflected at the end of the week when the index started to weaken. Figure 3: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart Resistance according to the H4 chart is in the region of around 4,410 - 4,420. The nearest support according to the H4 chart is at 4255 - 4284. Significant support is at 4,100 - 4,113. German DAX index In contrast to the SP 500 index, there was a big sell-off in the DAX, showing that investors are worried, among other things, that a further escalation of the conflict could lead to a disruption in the supply of Russian gas, on which Germany is heavily dependent. According to the daily chart, it looks like the DAX index is now in free fall and is breaking through support barriers as if they did not exist. It looks like the market is starting to show signs of panic selling by inexperienced investors. If you are speculating in the short term, then bear in mind that short term speculation against such a strong downtrend is very disadvantageous and risky. Figure 4: DAX on H4 and daily chart Current resistance is in the area of 13,655 - 13,756. The price is now at support at 13,400, which is already slightly broken, but the closing of the whole session will be crucial. The next support is then at 13 000 - 13 100. The Czech koruna is losing significantly The Czech koruna has long benefited from the interest rate differential, which has been very favourable for the koruna against the euro and has been the reason why the koruna has appreciated strongly since November 2021. But the Czech koruna, along with other Central European currencies, is a currency that is losing ground heavily in the current conflict. Figure 5: The EURCZK on the daily chart Firstly, there is the concern that the Czech Republic is geographically quite close to Ukraine, even though the Czech Republic does not have very significant exports directly with Ukraine nor Russia (in total, around 3% of total Czech exports). At the same time, there is concern about the Czech Republic's dependence on Russian gas. If the taps are closed, then the koruna could shoot above CZK 27 per euro. Currently, the EURCZK pair is trading at the resistance level of 25. 80 - 25.90. The Australian dollar The Australian dollar is a currency that tends to weaken during major global crises. In particular, the AUDJPY pair is correlated with the SP 500 index in the short term. Currently, however, the Australian dollar is strengthening. This is because the Australian economy is export-oriented and exports commodities such as gold, iron ore, coal and gas. All these commodities are now in high demand. Europe, for example, is realising that dependence on Russian gas is not paying off and is looking for alternatives. A temporary solution will be to rebuild coal-fired power stations. Germany and Italy have already started to buy coal stocks, which are therefore appreciating strongly. As a result, the price of coal has sky-rocketed, with one tonne reaching a record price of the USD 400. Figure 6: The coal price The gold, traditionally seen as a safe haven in times of uncertainty, is also strengthening. The gold has also been helped by a fall in US bond yields. Figure 7: The gold on H4 and D1 charts In terms of technical analysis, the gold stopped at the resistance of $1,973 per ounce. The nearest support according to the daily chart is $1,870 - 1,878 per ounce. The rise in commodity prices then resulted in the strengthening of the Australian dollar. Figure 8: The AUDJPY currency pair on D1 chart The AUDJPY broke the resistance in the range of 0.8400 - 0.8420, which became the new support. The next resistance is then at the level of 85.90 - 86.20.

COT Soft Commodities Speculators push their Corn bullish bets to 42-week high

Invest Macro 05.03.2022 17:24

Is It Too Late To Begin Adapting To Higher Volatility In The Market?

Chris Vermeulen 07.03.2022 22:18

Now is the time for traders to adapt to higher volatility and rapidly changing market conditions. One of the best ways to do this is to monitor different asset classes and track which investments are gaining and losing money flow. Knowing what the Best Asset Now is (BAN) is critical for consistent growth no matter the market condition.With that said, buyers (countries, investors, and traders) are panicking as the commodity Wheat, for example, gained more than 40% last week.‘Panic Commodity Buying’ in Wheat – Weekly ChartAccording to the US Dept. of Agriculture, China will hold 69% of the world’s corn reserves, 60% of rice and 51% of wheat by mid-2022.Commodity markets surged to their largest gains in years as Ukrainian ports were closed and sanctions against Russia sent buyers scrambling for replacement supplies. Global commodities, commodity funds, and commodity ETFs are attracting huge capital inflows as investors seek to cash in on the rally in oil, metals, and grains.How does the Russia – Ukraine war affect global food supplies?The conflict between major commodity producers Russia and Ukraine is causing countries that rely heavily on commodity imports to feed their citizens to enter into panic buying. The breadbaskets of Ukraine and Russia account for more than 25% of the global wheat trade and nearly 20% of the global corn trade.Last week, it was reported that many countries have dangerously low grain supplies. Nader Saad, an Egypt Cabinet spokesman, has raised the alarm that currently, Egypt has only nine months’ worth of wheat in silos. The supply includes five months of strategic reserves and four months of domestic production to cover the bread needs of 102 million Egyptians. Additionally, Avigdor Lieberman, Israel’s economic minister, said on Thursday (3/3/22) that his country should keep “a low profile” regarding the conflict in eastern Europe, given that Israel imports 50 percent of its wheat from Russia and 30 percent from Ukraine.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!The longer-term potential for much higher grain prices exists, but it’s worth noting that Friday’s close of nearly $12.00 a bushel for wheat is not that far away from the all-time record high of $13.30, recorded 14-years ago. According to Trading Economics, wheat has gone up 75.08% year-to-date while other commodity markets like Oats are up a whopping 85.13%, Coffee 74.68%, and Corn 34.07%.How are other markets reacting to these global events?Year-to-date comparison returns as of 3/4/2022:-9.18% S&P 500 (index), -7.49% DJI (index), -15.21% Nasdaq (index), +37.44% Exxon Mobile (oil), +20.08% Freeport McMoran (copper & gold), -20.68% Tesla (alternative energy), -24.49% Microstrategy (bitcoin play), -40.51% Meta-Facebook (social media)As stock holdings and 401k’s are shrinking it may be time to re-evaluate your portfolio. There are ETFs available that can give you exposure to commodities, energy, and metals.Here is an example of a few of these ETFs:+53.81% WEAT Teucrium Wheat Fund+41.79% GSG iShares S&P TSCI Commodity -Indexed Trust+104.40 UCO ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil+59.32% PALL Aberdeen Standard Physical Palladium SharesHow is the global investor reacting to rocketing commodity prices and increasing market volatility?We can track global money flow by monitoring the following 1-month currency graph (www.finviz.com). The Australian Dollar is up +4.25%, the New Zealand Dollar +3.72%, and the Canadian Dollar +0.30% vs. the US Dollar due to the rising commodity prices like metals and energy. These country currencies are known as commodity currencies.The Switzerland Franc +0.96%, the Japanese Yen +0.35%, and the US Dollar +0.00% are all benefiting from global capital seeking a safe haven. As volatility continues to spike, these country currencies will experience more inflows as capital comes out of depreciating assets and seeks stability.We also notice that capital outflow is occurring from the European Union-Eurodollar -4.55% and the British Pound -2.22% due to their close proximity (risk) to the Russia - Ukraine war.www.finviz.comGlobal central banks will need to begin raising their interest rates to combat high inflation!Due to the rapid acceleration of inflation, the US Federal Reserve may have been looking to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at its policy meeting two weeks from now. However, given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the FED may become more cautious and consider raising interest rates by only 25 basis points on March 15-16.What strategies can help you navigate current market trends?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals are starting to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.Now is the time to keep your eye on the ball!I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 1/3/2022

Purple Trading 07.03.2022 21:35

Crude Oil Climbs High. Is It Enough to Enjoy a Better View?

Sebastian Bischeri 07.03.2022 16:45

The threat of sanctions caused a stir in the markets: WTI spiked above $130 and Brent is nearing the $140 mark. Where is crude oil going next? A possible Western embargo on Russian oil caused oil prices to soar again on Monday, as stock markets feared persistent inflation and a consequent economic slowdown. On the US dollar side, the continued rally of the greenback has propelled the dollar index (DXY) towards higher levels, as it is now approaching the three-figure mark ($100), even though it has not had a huge impact on crude oil, other petroleum products, or any other commodities in general. What we rather witness here is the greenback’s safe haven effect attracting investors, much like gold would tend to act in a “store of value” role. US Dollar Index (DXY) CFD (daily chart) On the geopolitical scene, Russia-Ukraine peace talks will be resumed today in Brest (Belarus) at 14:00 GMT, while another meeting is already scheduled at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum on Thursday in Turkey. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba will talk there in the presence of the Turkish foreign minister. We might therefore expect some de-escalation in the Black Sea basin this week if the two parties involved were able to reach an agreement after further negotiations. WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Brent Crude Oil (BRNK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Regarding natural gas, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2022 report, suggesting that even with non-hydro renewable sources set to rapidly grow through 2050, oil and gas-derived sources should still remain the top energy sources to fuel most of the United States. The agency is forecasting a rise in the production of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) – which mainly comes from shale gas – by at least 35%! In summary, the threat of sanctions has already wiped out almost all Russian oil – at least 7% of global supply – from the world oil market. In the weeks or months to come, we can see sanctions on Russian oil exports create a boomerang effect on European economies, decreasing world market supply, increasing prices for industry, as well as even more rising expenses, and thus cost of living through a ripple effect. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

XAUUSD Chart And Bitcoin Charts - BTC/USDT And Bitcoin Vs Gold Chart

Korbinian Koller 08.03.2022 10:21

Bitcoins image boost In times of war, unfortunately, other news is quickly overshadowed temporarily. Gold, monthly chart, cup and handle: Gold in US Dollar, monthly chart as of March 7th, 2022. One significant factor is the gold bullish monthly chart with its cup and handle price formation. The larger time frame of the related market plays a substantial role in inter-market analysis. Gold, leading wealth preservation “insurance” for your money in inflationary times, should be on a bitcoin trader/investor’s radar. We find a bullish tone in gold to support possible bitcoin price increases. Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, monthly chart, bitcoin is cheap: Bitcoin versus Gold in USD, monthly chart as of March 8th, 2022. An additional welcoming factor can be found in the monthly chart of the bitcoin relationship towards gold. Presently, around 20 ounces buy you one bitcoin, while in the last quarter of last year, the same bitcoin cost you instead 37 ounces of gold. Consequently, those who have exited a fiat currency system or those who constructively hedge their wealth preservation portfolio might have a greater focus on bitcoin currently as on gold; it is cheaper. Bitcoin, weekly chart, still a couple weeks: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 8th, 2022. A look at a weekly bitcoin chart shows temporary weakness in a general up slope near an entry zone. The last two weeks provided for substantial income-producing trading through partial profit-taking. Bitcoin had delivered a 32% range from US$34,322 to US$45,400. Unfortunately, there was no directional follow-through beyond this point, and bitcoin has yet again retraced substantially. Currently, Bitcoin is hovering right above a low-risk entry zone again, and we are hawkishly looking out for low-risk entries. A look into the past shows that it took bitcoin ten weeks to turn around in scenario A. Our timing prognosis is another two weeks now before we see possibly fast advancements. Bitcoins image boost: Some think of chocolate when thinking of Switzerland, and indeed this news is sweet to the bitcoin community. Bitcoins’ last step to gain momentum is widespread adoption. News, like the 10% increase in GDP since El Salvador’s declaration of bitcoin being accepted legal tender, is impressive. Yet, it is still met with doubt due to either political or economic situations of countries that have adopted bitcoin so far. With a central money mecca now representing progressive bitcoin use and old history of a conservative, strong financial stability image backing such behavior, widespread mass doubt can be swayed towards more bitcoin adaptation. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 8th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Summarised Fluctuations Of Gold, Crude Oil, Bitcoin And Rouble Since The Russia-Ukraine War Started (with chart)

Mikołaj Marcinowski 08.03.2022 12:27

It’s been almost two weeks since Russia invaded Ukraine. Even if the first day weren’t affected by huge rises, recent days show a major lift across markets. Source: TradingView.com Nickel There are some sensational rises beginning with Nickel price which increased by over 150% what can significantly affect many branches as Nickel is used, among others, in automotive and medical industries. Gold Gold raised by ‘only’ 4%, but it trades over magic $2000 level which nears ATH of Ca. $2100 (2020). XAU is believed to be a safe-haven as tensions rise and other assets’ fluctuations scare off investors. Crude Oil – BRENT and WTI Crude Oil prices have been rising since the first sights of invasion, but hitting Ca. $130 per barrel (to put it mildly) confused both investors and drivers around the world. Generally speaking, Crude Oil price has increased by Ca. 30% since the beginning of the war. Bitcoin BTC hasn’t fluctuated much and sticks to the levels near $40k, increasing by Ca. 5% since the invasion. Russian Rouble Currency of the invader has weakened significantly – by ca. 40% as RUBUSD chart shows. It will be really hard to get the Russian currency back to the game after such decrease. MOEX Some say Russian Index (RTSI – RU50) ‘surrendered’ shortly after the invasion has started as it remains closed since 1/03. At that time RTSI had been ca. 26% higher than on the first day of the warfare. DAX (GER 40) One of the greatest European index has lost almost 10%, what shows how broad is the influence of Russia-Ukraine War. Wheat Last but (definitely) not least… Wheat price increased by over 40% as conflicted countries – Russia and Ukraine are the major suppliers of such commodities. Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter! Data: TradingView.com

S&P 500 (SPX) Plunges, Metals And Crude Oil Prices Go Up

Monica Kingsley 08.03.2022 15:41

S&P 500 indeed didn‘t reverse on Friday in earnest, and both tech and value sold off hard. Not much reason to be bullish thanks to credit markets performance either – the posture is very risk-off, and the rush to commodities goes on. With a little check yesterday on the high opening prices in crude oil and copper, but still. My favorite agrifoods picks of late, wheat and corn, are doing great, and the pressure within select base metals, is building up – such as (for understandable reasons) in nickel and aluminum. Look for more to come, especially there where supply is getting messed with (this doesn‘t concern copper to such a degree, explaining its tepid price gains). And I‘m not talking even the brightest spot, where I at the onset of 2022 announced that precious metals would be the great bullish surprise this year. Those who listened, are rocking and rolling – we‘re nowhere near the end of the profitable run! Crude oil is likely to consolidate prior steep gains, and could definitely continue spiking higher. Should it stay comfortably above $125 for months, that would lead to quite some demand destruction. Given that black gold acts as a „shadow Fed funds rate“, let‘s bring up yesterday‘s rate raising thoughts and other relevant snippets: (,,,) If TLT has a message to drive home after the latest Powell pronouncements, it‘s that the odds of a 50bp rate hike in Mar (virtual certainty less than two weeks ago, went down considerably) – it‘s almost a coin toss now, and as the FOMC time approaches, the Fed would probably grow more cautious (read dovish and not hawkish) in its assessments, no matter the commodities appreciation or supply chains status. Yes, neither of these, nor inflation is going away before the year‘s end – they are here to stay for a long time to come. Looking at the events of late, I have to dial back the stock market outlook when it comes to the degree of appreciation till 2022 is over – I wouldn‘t be surprised to see the S&P 500 to retreat slightly vs. the Jan 2022 open. Yes, not even the better 2H 2022 prospects would erase the preceding setback. Which stocks would do best then? Here are my key 4 tips – energy, materials, in general value, and smallcaps. But the true winners of the stagflationary period is of course going to be commodities and precious metals. And that‘s where the bulk of recent gains that I brought you, were concentrated in. More is to come, and it‘s gold and silver that are catching real fire here. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 didn‘t do at all well yesterday, and signs of a short-term bottom are absent. It‘s entirely possible that the brief upswing that I was looking to be selling into to start the week, has been not merely postponed. Credit Markets HYG is clearly on the defensive, and TLT reassessing rate hike prospects – yet, long-dated Treasuries still declined. There is no appetite to buy bonds, and that confirms my thesis of lower lows to be made still in Mar. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals keep doing great, and will likely continue rising no matter what the dollar does – last three days‘ experience confirms that. This is more than mere flight to safety - I‘m looking for further price gains as the upleg has been measured and orderly so far. Crude Oil Crude oil‘s opening gap had been sold into, but we haven‘t seen a reversal yesterday. The upswing can continue, and it would happen on high volatility. I don‘t think we have seen the real spike just yet. Copper For all the above reasons, copper isn‘t rising as fast as other base metals (one of the key engines of commodities appreciation). The run is respectable, and not overheated. $5.00 would remain quite a tough nut to crack – for the time being. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos haven‘t made up their mind yet, but one thing is sure – they aren‘t acting as a safe haven. Given the extent of retreat from Mar highs, it means I‘m looking for not too spectacular performance in the days ahead. Summary S&P 500 missed an opportunity to rise (even if just to open the week on a positive note), and its prospects for today aren‘t way too much brighter. It‘s that practically nothing is giving bullish signals for paper assets, and the market breadth has understandably deteriorated. The rush into precious metals, dollar and commodities remains on – these are the pockets of strength, lifting to a very modest and hidden degree Treasuries as well (these are however reassessing the hawkish Fed prospects) at a time when global growth downgrades are starting to arrive. Pretty serious figures, let me tell you. As I wrote yesterday, stocks may even undershoot prior Thursday‘s lows, but I‘m not looking for that to happen. The sentiment is very negative already, the yield curve keeps compressing, commodities are rising relentlessly, and all we got is a great inflation excuse / smoke screen. Inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, and supply chain disruptions and other geopolitical events can and do exacerbate that. Just having a look at the rising dollar when rate hike prospects are getting dialed back, tells the full risk-off story of the moment, further highlighted by the powder keg that precious metals are. And silver isn‘t yet outperforming copper, which is something I am looking for to change as we go by. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Ukraine’s Defense Shines ‒ and So Does Gold

Arkadiusz Sieron 08.03.2022 17:37

Russian forces have made minimal progress against Ukraine in recent days. Unlike the invader, gold rallied very quickly and achieved its long-awaited target - $2000! Nobody expected the Russian inquisition! Nobody expected such a fierce Ukrainian defense, either. Of course, the situation is still very dramatic. Russian troops continued their offensive and – although the pace slowed down considerably – they managed to make some progress, especially in southern Ukraine, by bolstering air defense and supplies. The invaders are probably preparing for the decisive assault on Kyiv. Where Russian soldiers can’t break the defense, they bomb civilian infrastructure and attack ordinary people, including targeting evacuation corridors, to spread terror. Several Ukrainian cities are besieged and their inhabitants lack basic necessities. The humanitarian crisis intensifies. However, Russian forces made minimal ground advances over recent days, and it’s highly unlikely that Russia has successfully achieved its planned objectives to date. According to the Pentagon, nearly all of the Russian troops that were amassed on Ukraine’s border are already fighting inside the country. Meanwhile, the international legion was formed and started its fight for Ukraine. Moreover, Western countries have recently supplied Ukraine with many hi-tech military arms and equipment, including helicopters, anti-tank weapons, and anti-aircraft missiles, which could be crucial in boosting the Ukrainian defense. Implications for Gold What does the war in Ukraine imply for the precious metals? Well, gold is shining almost as brightly as the Ukrainian defense. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal has surged above $1,980 on Monday (March 7, 2022), the highest level since August 2020. What’s more, as the next chart shows, during today’s early trading, gold has soared above $2,020 for a while, reaching almost an all-time high. In my most recent report, I wrote: “as long as the war continues, the yellow metal may shine (…). The continuation or escalation of Russia’s military actions could provide support for gold prices.” This is exactly what we’ve been observing. This is not surprising. The war has increased the safe-haven demand for gold, while investors have become more risk-averse and have continued selling equities. As you can see in the chart below, the S&P 500 Index has plunged more than 12% since its peak in early January. Some of the released funds went to the gold market. What’s more, the credit spreads have widened, while the real interest rates have declined. Both these trends are fundamentally positive for the yellow metal. Another bullish driver of gold prices is inflation. It’s already high, and the war in Ukraine will only add to the upward pressure. The oil price has jumped above $120 per barrel, almost reaching a record peak. Higher energy prices would translate into higher CPI readings in the near future. Other commodities are also surging. For example, the Food Price Index calculated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has soared above 140 in February, which is a new all-time high, as the chart below shows. Higher commodity prices could lead to social unrest, as was the case with the Arab Spring or recent protests in Kazakhstan. Higher energy prices and inflation imply slower real GDP growth and more stagflationary conditions. As a reminder, in 2008 we saw rapidly rising commodities, which probably contributed to the Great Recession. In such an environment, it’s far from clear that the Fed will be very hawkish. It will probably hike the federal funds rate in March, as expected, but it may soften its stance later amid the conflict between Ukraine and the West with Russia and elevated geopolitical risks. The more dovish Fed should also be supportive of gold prices. However, when the fighting cools off, the fear will subside, and we could see a correction in the gold market. Both sides are exhausted by the conflict and don’t want to continue it forever. The Russian side has already softened its stance a bit during the most recent round of negotiations, as it probably realized that a military breakthrough was unlikely. Hence, when the conflict ends, gold’s current tailwind could turn into a headwind. Having said that, the impact of the conflict may not be as short-lived this time. I'm referring to the relatively harsh sanctions and high energy prices that may last for some time after the war is over. . The same applies to a more hawkish stance toward Russia and European governments’ actions to become less dependent on Russian gas and oil. A lot depends on how the conflict will be resolved, and whether it brings us Cold War 2.0. However, two things are certain: the world has already changed geopolitically, and at the beginning of this new era, the fundamental outlook for gold has turned more bullish than before the war. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Stocks rebound slightly as hopes of a Russia-Ukraine deal increase

Walid Koudmani 09.03.2022 11:54

European stock markets started the day trading higher following a mixed Asian session which saw Nikkei drop 0.3% while S&P/ASX 200 gained 1% and as indices from China plunged and finished 1.7-5.0% lower. Meanwhile, the United States announced a total ban on Russian oil, natural gas and coal with the United Kingdom announcing that it will phase out Russian oil in the coming months. In response, Putin signed a decree banning exports of certain commodities from Russia and investors await the announcement within days to determine the potential impact on markets. Furthemore, a growing number of companies have announced their withdrawal from or suspension of services in Russia with McDonald's, Starbucks and Coca-Cola being the latest to make such announcements and isolating the country economically even more. While this rebound may encourage investors and increase confidence in the market, it is essential to keep in mind that any major news related to the ongoing conflict could have wide repercussions and may shake the extremely fragile market sentiment. Crypto markets rebound as sentiment improves ahead of Biden executive orderCryptocurrencies appeared to show signs of strength in the Asian session which have continued at the start of the European trading session with Bitcoin gaining over 8% and trading around $42,000, the highest level in a week. The crypto market cap is up over 6% today and has returned to around $1.85 Trillion after several days of uncertainty which followed the surge in demand seen at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict that was sparked by significant interest from people of that region as they attempted to seek refuge from the collapsing economy and currency. As has been the case in the past, Bitcoin and Ethereum appear to be dragging the rest of the market with the majority of alt-coins also adding to their gains despite generally lagging slightly behind the majors. Furthermore, US president Biden is expected to make an announcement today regarding an executive order on cryptocurrencies that may pave the way for a broader adoption of digital assets and boost investor confidence in the relatively new asset class. While details of this announcement remain unclear, any sign of regulation or mainstream adoption could prove to be a catalyst for a major move across the crypto markets thanks to the influx of new money of both retail and institutional investors.

Ringing the Bell

Monica Kingsley 09.03.2022 16:03

S&P 500 once again gave up intraday gains, and credit markets confirmed the decline. Value down significantly more than tech, risk-off anywhere you look. For days without end, but the reprieve can come on seemingly little to no positive news, just when the sellers exhaust themselves and need to regroup temporarily. We‘re already seeing signs of such a respite in precious metals and commodities – be it the copper downswing, oil unable to break $130, or miners not following gold much higher yesterday. Corn and wheat also consolidated – right or wrong, the market seeks to anticipate some relief from Eastern Europe.The big picture though hasn‘t changed:(…) credit markets … posture is very risk-off, and the rush to commodities goes on. With a little check yesterday on the high opening prices in crude oil and copper, but still. My favorite agrifoods picks of late, wheat and corn, are doing great, and the pressure within select base metals, is building up – such as (for understandable reasons) in nickel and aluminum. Look for more to come, especially there where supply is getting messed with (this doesn‘t concern copper to such a degree, explaining its tepid price gains).And I‘m not talking even the brightest spot, where I at the onset of 2022 announced that precious metals would be the great bullish surprise this year. Those who listened, are rocking and rolling – we‘re nowhere near the end of the profitable run! Crude oil is likely to consolidate prior steep gains, and could definitely continue spiking higher. Should it stay comfortably above $125 for months, that would lead to quite some demand destruction. Given that black gold acts as a „shadow Fed funds rate“, ......its downswing would contribute to providing the Fed with an excuse not to hike in Mar by 50bp. After the prior run up in the price of black gold that however renders such an excuse a verbal exercise only, the Fed remains between a rock and hard place, and the inflationary fires keep raging on.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is reaching for the Feb 24 lows, and may find respite at this level. The upper knot though would need a solid close today (above 4,250) to be of short-term significance. Remember, the market remains very much headline sensitive.Credit MarketsHYG clearly remains on the defensive, but the sellers may need a pause here, if volume is any guide. Bonds are getting beaten, and the outlook remains negative to neutral for the weeks ahead. Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals keep doing great, but a pause is knocking on the door. Not a reversal, a pause. Gold and silver are indeed the go-to assets in the current situation, and miners agree wholeheartedly.Crude OilCrude oil is having trouble extending gains, and the consolidation I mentioned yesterday, approaches. I do not think however that this is the end of the run higher.CopperCopper is pausing already, and this underperformer looks very well bid above $4.60. Let the red metal build a base, and continue rising next, alongside the rest of the crowd.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos upswing equals more risk appetite? It could be so, looking at the dollar‘s chart (I‘m talking that in the summary of today‘s analysis).SummaryEvery dog has its day, and the S&P 500‘s one might be coming today or tomorrow. It‘s that the safe havens of late (precious metals, commodities and the dollar) are having trouble extending prior steep gains further. These look to be in for a brief respite that would be amplified on any possible news of deescalation. In such an environment, risk taking would flourish at expense of gold, silver and oil especially. I don‘t think so we have seen the tops – precious metals are likely to do great on the continued inflation turning into stagflation (GDP growth figures being downgraded), and commodities are set to further benefit from geopolitics (among much else).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Not Passing Smell Test

Monica Kingsley 10.03.2022 16:01

S&P 500 tech driven upswing makes the advance a bit suspect, and prone to consolidation. I would have expected value to kick in to a much greater degree given the risk-on posture in the credit markets. The steep downswing in commodities and precious metals doesn‘t pass the smell test for me – just as there were little cracks in the dam warning of short-term vulnerability at the onset of yesterday, the same way there are signs of the resulting downswing being overdone now.And that has consequences for the multitude of open positions – the PMs and commodities super bull runs are on, and the geopolitics still support the notion of the next spike.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 turned around, and the volume isn‘t raising too many eyebrows. However, the bulls should have tempered price appreciation expectations, to put it politely...Credit MarketsHYG turned around, but isn‘t entirely convincing yet. We saw an encouraging first step towards risk-on turn that requires that the moves continue, which is unlikely today – CPI is here, and unlikely to disappoint the inflationistas.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals downswing looks clearly overdone, and I continue calling for a shallow, $1,980 - $2,000 range consolidation next. This gives you an idea not to expect steep silver discounts either. Miner are clear, and holding up nicely.Crude OilCrude oil downswing came, arguably way too steep one. Even oil stocks turned down in spite of the S&P 500 upswing, which is odd. I‘m looking for gradual reversal of yesterday‘s weakness in both.CopperCopper has made one of its odd moves on par with the late Jan long red candle one – I‘m looking for the weakness to be reversed, and not only in the red metal but within commodities as such.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are giving up yesterday‘s upswing – they are dialing back the risk-on turn and rush out of the safe havens of late.SummaryThe S&P 500 dog indeed just had its day, but the price appreciation prospects are not looking too bright for today. With attention turning to CPI, and yesterday‘s „hail mary decline aka I don‘t need you anymore“ in the safe havens of late (precious metals, crude oil, wheat, and the dollar to name just a few) getting proper scrutiny, I‘m looking for gradual return to strength in all things real (real assets) – it‘s my reasonable assumption that the markets won‘t get surprised by an overwhelmingly positive headline from Eastern Europe at this point. Focusing on the underlying fundamentals and charts, I don‘t think so we have seen the real asset tops – precious metals are likely to do great on the continued inflation turning into stagflation (GDP growth figures being downgraded), and commodities are set to further benefit from geopolitics (among much else).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

The War Is on for Two Weeks. How Does It Affect Gold?

Arkadiusz Sieron 10.03.2022 17:21

With each day of the Russian invasion, gold confirms its status as the safe-haven asset. Its long-term outlook has become more bullish than before the war. Two weeks have passed since the Russian attack on Ukraine. Two weeks of the first full-scale war in Europe in the 21th century, something I still can’t believe is happening. Two weeks of completely senseless conflict between close Slavic nations, unleashed without any reasonable justification and only for the sake of Putin’s imperial dreams and his vision of Soviet Reunion. Two weeks of destruction, terror, and death that captured the souls of thousands of soldiers and hundreds of civilians, including dozens of children. Just yesterday, Russian forces bombed a maternity hospital in southern Ukraine. I used to be a fan of Russian literature and classic music (who doesn’t like Tolstoy or Tchaikovsky?), but the systematic bombing of civilian areas (and the use of thermobaric missiles) makes me doubt whether the Russians really belong to the family of civilized nations. Now, for the warzone report. The country’s capital and largest cities remain in the hands of the Ukrainians. Russian forces are drawing reserves, deploying conscript troops to Ukraine to replace great losses. They are still trying to encircle Kyiv. They are also strengthening their presence around the city of Mykolaiv in southern Ukraine. However, the Ukrainian army heroically holds back enemy attacks in all directions. The defense is so effective that the large Russian column north-west of Kyiv has made little progress in over a week, while Russian air activity has significantly decreased in recent days. Implications for Gold How has the war, that has been going on for already two weeks, affected the gold market so far? Well, as the chart below shows, the military conflict was generally positive for the yellow metal, boosting its price from $1,905 to $1989, or about 4.4%. Please note that initially the price of gold jumped, only to decline after a while, and only then rallied, reaching almost $2,040 on Tuesday (March 8, 2022). However, the price has retreated since then, below the key level of $2,000. This is partially a normal correction after an impressive upward move. It’s also possible that the markets are starting to smell the end of the war. You see, Russian forces can’t break through the Ukrainian defense. They can continue besieging cities, but the continuation of the invasion entails significant costs, and Russia’s economy is already sinking. Hence, they can either escalate the conflict in a desperate attempt to conquer Kyiv – according to the White House, Russia could conduct a chemical or biological weapon attack in Ukraine – or try to negotiate the ceasefire. In recent days, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, said he was open to a compromise with Russia. Today, the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers met in Turkey for the first time since the horror started (unfortunately, without any agreement). However, although gold prices may consolidate for a while or even fall if the prospects of the de-escalation increase, the long-term fundamentals have turned more bullish. As you can see in the chart below, the real interest rates decreased amid the prospects of higher inflation and slower economic growth. Russia and Ukraine are key exporters of many commodities, including oil, which would increase the production costs and bring us closer to stagflation. What’s next, risk aversion increased significantly, which is supportive of safe-haven assets such as gold. After all, Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine is a turning point in modern history, which ends a period of civilized relations with Russia and relative safety in the world. Although Russia’s army discredited itself in Ukraine, the country still has nuclear weapons able to destroy the globe. As you can see in the chart below, both the credit spreads (represented here by the ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread) and the CBOE volatility index (also called “the fear index”) rose considerably in the last two weeks. Hence, the long-term outlook for gold is more bullish than before the invasion. The short-term future is more uncertain, as there might be periods of consolidation and even corrections if the conflict de-escalates or ends. However, given the lack of any decisions during today’s talks between Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers and the continuation of the military actions, gold may rally further. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Economic Indicators Of Great Britain Released

Alex Kuptsikevich 11.03.2022 09:11

The new monthly package of UK statistics highlighted the fine shape of the economy in January. For the month, GDP rose by 0.8%, against an expected strengthening of 0.2% and the three-month growth rate accelerated from 1.0% to 1.1%. Industrial production strengthened by 0.7% for the month and 2.3% for January 2021, also beating economists' expectations. The UK economy started the year in good shape, responding positively to the easing of the coronavirus restrictions. This is short-term positive news for the British pound, which has managed to find support after touching another low since November 2020 at 1.3080 per dollar. A strong base in the economy will allow the Bank of England to strengthen its fight against inflation by raising rates. However, price shocks across many commodities and foodstuffs dramatically increase the chances of short-term stagflation in the UK as consumers will save more by cutting back on purchases of non-essential goods and services due to rising energy and food prices. The Ukrainian war crisis, now in its third week, has seen the GBPUSD fall 3.8%, taking more than 1/3 of the pair's rise from the lows at the start of the pandemic. A move below 1.3160 was a signal to a move into a deeper correction phase, and the pair could plunge to 1.2880 at the beginning of next week.

Why lira is experiencing pressure now

Alex Kuptsikevich 11.03.2022 10:33

The Turkish lira has fallen back-to-back on each working day in March, having weakened against the US Dollar by 8.2% over this time and coming close to 15.0, where it was last seen in mid-December. The current development of the lira is reminiscent of the early October-November situation when we have seen a similar sustained decline, but the volatility (by the standards of the Turkish lira) has remained subdued. The pressure on the lira is due to the country's heavy reliance on imports of oil, gas, and agricultural commodities, mainly wheat. Turkey's Current Account deficit rose to 7.1bn in January from 3.8bn a month earlier. In February and early March, we see a gloomier picture in commodity prices, promising to put even more pressure on the balance of payments. The jump in the price of basic commodities has caused a decline in industrial production, and the situation could worsen in the coming months. The exchange rate, in this case, is a natural damping mechanism unless it is maintained artificially through currency interventions or severe capital controls. In Turkey, the second variant is now the case, but these controls merely stretch out the natural self-adjustment of the economy over time.

Now, That‘s Better

Monica Kingsley 11.03.2022 15:59

S&P 500 gave up the opening gains, but managed to close on a good note, in spite of credit markets not confirming. Given though the high volume characterizing HYG downswing and retreating crude oil, we may be in for a stock market led rebound today. It‘s that finally, value did much better yesterday than tech.CPI came red hot, but didn‘t beat expectations, yield curve remains flat as a pancake, and the commodity index didn‘t sell off too hard. It remains to be seen whether the miners‘ strength was for real or not – anyway, the yesterday discussed shallow $1,980 - $2,000 range consolidation still remains the most likely scenario. I just don‘t see PMs and commodities giving up a lion‘s share of the post Feb 24 gains next.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 can still turn around, and the odds of doing so successfully (till the closing bell today), have increased yesterday. The diminished volume points to no more sellers at this point while buyers are waiting on the sidelines.Credit MarketsHYG has only marginally closed below Tuesday‘s lows – corporate junk bonds can reverse higher without overcoming Wednesday‘s highs fast, which would still be constructive for a modest S&P 500 upswing.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are indeed refusing to swing lower too much – the sector remains excellently positioned for further gains. For now though, we‘re in a soft patch where the speculative fever is slowly coming out, including out of other commodities. Enter oil.Crude OilCrude oil still remains vulnerable, but would catch a bid quite fast here. Ideally, black gold wouldn‘t break down into the $105 - $100 zone next. I‘m looking for resilience kicking in soon.CopperCopper fake weakness is being reversed, and the red metal is well positioned not to break below Wednesday‘s lows. I‘m not looking for selloff continuation in the CRB Index either.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos remain undecided, and erring on the side of caution – this highlights that the risk appetite‘s return is far from universal.SummaryS&P 500 missed a good opportunity yesterday, but the short-term bullish case isn‘t lost. Stocks actually outperformed credit markets, and given the commodities respite and value doing well, bonds may very well join in the upswing, with a notable hesitation though. That wouldn‘t be a short-term obstacle, take it as the bulls temporarily overpowering the bears – I still think that the selling isn‘t over, and that the downswing would return in the latter half of Mar if (and that‘s a big if) the Fed‘s response to inflation doesn‘t underwhelm the market expectations that have been dialed back considerably over the last two weeks. Token 25bp rate hike, anyone? That wouldn‘t sink stocks dramatically...Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

COT Soft Commodities Speculators drive their Sugar bullish bets sharply higher

Invest Macro 12.03.2022 19:56

DAX (GER 40) And FTSE100 (UK100) Has Increased, Crude Oil Price And Price Of Gold Declines

Walid Koudmani 14.03.2022 11:53

European stock markets started the week trading higher following some positive news surrounding the talks between Russia and Ukraine as officials announced that some progress was being made and potential compromises were on the table. This positive sentiment carried over despite news of a major lockdown in a city in China caused by a surge in covid-19 cases over the weekend and as a meeting is expected today in Rome between US and Chinese officials to discuss the conflict. The German Dax is up around 3% and has managed to briefly break through a resistance area after sentiment was significantly impacted by the rising tension which threatened to severely disrupt European economies. Meanwhile the UK’s FTSE100 is also gaining as PM Boris Johnson is due to travel to Saudi Arabia to meet prince Mohammed bin Salman to discuss a potential increase in oil supplies to offset the foregone Russian supplies. While there is a lack of data releases today, markets remain extremely susceptible to volatility as any major news relating to the conflict could trigger major moves which would echo across asset classes and trigger investor panic. Oil and Gold retreat as hopes for peace talks spark optimism After the massive rally which took oil and gold prices near their all time highs, we have seen the situation improve slightly over the last few days as markets began to receive some encouraging news regarding the prospect for a potential deal between the russians and ukranians. Tensions and rising supply concerns took the prices of those commodities to the highest levels in years as investors looked for a safe haven amid rising uncertainty and as they anticipated significant disruption in the oil market due to the unavailability of Russian supplies. However, at the start of the week the situation appears to be improving even more with oil prices back towards $100 a barrel while gold dropped over $100 from its recent high and is trading around $1960. While this situation may not last very long, as any major event could trigger a spike in both once again, it does provide some encouraging signs that if the situation continues to show signs of resolution markets could adjust quite rapidly.

Credit Markets Keeps Downward Move, S&P 500 (SPX) Trades Lower Than Usual, Bitcoin (BTC) Price Is... Quite Stable (Sic!)

Monica Kingsley 14.03.2022 13:09

S&P 500 bulls again missed the opportunity, and credit markets likewise. Not even the virtual certainty of only 25bp hike in Mar is providing much relief to the credit markets. Given that the real economy is considerably slowing down and that recession looks arriving before Q2 ends, the markets continue forcing higher rates (reflecting inflation). In a risk-on environment, value and cyclicals such as financials would be reacting positively, but that‘s not the case right now. At the same time, equal weighted S&P 500 (that‘s RSP) hasn‘t yet broken below its horizontal support above $145, meaning its posture isn‘t as bad as in the S&P 500. Should it however give, we‘re going considerably below 4,000. That‘s why today‘s article is titled hanging by a thread. Precious metals and commodities continue consolidating, and the least volatile appreciation opportunity presents the red metal. And it‘s not only about copper – crude oil market is going through supply realignment, and demand is not yet being destroyed on a massive scale. Coupled with the long-term underinvestment in exploration and drilling (US is no longer such a key producer as was the case in 2019), crude oil prices would continue rising on fundamentals, meaning the appreciation pace of Feb-Mar would slow down. Precious metals would have it easy next as the Fed is bound to be forced to make a U-turn in this very short tightening cycle (they didn‘t get far at all, and inflation expectations have in my view become unanchored already). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bears won the day, and Nasdaq remains in a sorry state. 4,160s are the line in the sand, breaking which would accelerate the downswing. Inflation is cutting into the earnings, and stocks aren‘t going to like the coming Fed‘s message. Credit Markets HYG didn‘t keep at least stable – the pressure in the credit markets is ongoing, and the stock market bulls don‘t have much to rejoice over here. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals downswings are being bought, and are shallow. The sellers are running out of steam, and the opportunity to go somewhat higher next, is approaching. Crude Oil Crude oil is stabilizing, but it may take some time before the upswing continues with renewed vigor. As for modest extension of gains, we won‘t be disappointed. Copper Copper had one more day of fake weakness, but the lost gains of Friday would be made up for next – and given no speculative fever here to speak of, it would have as good lasting power as precious metals. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos remain undecided, but indicate a little breathing room, at least for today. Still, I wouldn‘t call it as risk-on constellation throughout the markets. Summary S&P 500 is getting in a precarious position, but the internals aren‘t (yet) a screaming sell. Credit markets continue leading lower, and the risk-off positioning is impossible to miss. Not even financials are able to take the cue, and rise. It‘s that the rise in yields mirrors the ingrained inflation, and just how entrenched it‘s becoming. No surprise if you were listening to me one year ago – the Fed‘s manouevering room got progressively smaller, and the table is set for the 2H 2022 inflation respite (think 5-6% year end on account of recessionary undercurrents) to be superseded with even higher inflation in 2023, because the Fed would be forced later this year to turn back to easing. Long live the precious metals and commodities super bulls! Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Are Current Market Cycles Similar To The GFC Of 2007–2009?

Chris Vermeulen 14.03.2022 16:14

Soaring real estate, rising volatility, surging commodities and slumping stocks - Sound Familiar?This past week marked the 13th anniversary of the bottom of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007-2009. The March 6, 2009 stock market low for the S&P 500 marked a staggering overall value loss of 51.9%.The GFC of 2007-09 resulted from excessive risk-taking by global financial institutions, which resulted in the bursting of the housing market bubble. This, in turn, led to a vast collapse of mortgage-back securities resulting in a dramatic worldwide financial reset.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! IS HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF?The following graph shows us that precious metals and energy outperform the stock market as the ‘Bull’ cycle reaches its maturity. The stock market is always the first to lead, the second being the economy, and the third, being the commodity markets. But history has shown that commodity markets can move up substantially as the stock market ‘Bull’ runs out of steam.The current commodities rally in Gold began August 2021, Crude Oil April 2020, and Wheat in January 2022. Interestingly we started seeing capital outflows in the SPY-SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF in early January 2022, and the DRN-Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3x Shares ETF starting back in late December 2021.LET’S SEE WHAT HAPPENED TO THE STOCK AND COMMODITY MARKETS IN 2007-2008SPY - SPDR S&P 500 TRUST ETFFrom August 17, 2007 to July 3, 2008: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust depreciated -20.12%The State Street Corporation designed SPY for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Stock Index. According to State Street’s website www.ssga.com, the Benchmark, the S&P 500 Index, comprises selected stocks from five hundred (500) issuers, all of which are listed on national stock exchanges and span over approximately 24 separate industry groups.DBC – INVESCO DB COMMODITY INDEX TRACING FUND ETFFrom August 17 2007 to July 3, 2008: Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund appreciated +96.81%Invesco designed DBC for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in commodity futures. According to Invesco’s website www.invesco.com, the Index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on 14 of the most heavily traded and important physical commodities in the world.BE ALERT: THE US FEDERAL RESERVE POLICY MEETING IS THIS WEEK!In February, the inflation rate rose to 7.9% as food and energy costs pushed prices to their highest level in more than 40 years. If we exclude food and energy, core inflation still rose 6.4%, which was the highest since August 1982. Gasoline, groceries, and housing were the most significant contributors to the CPI gain. The consumer price index is the price of a weighted average market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households.The FED was expected to raise interest rates by as much as 50 basis points at its policy meeting this week, March 15-16. However, given the recent world events of the Russia – Ukraine war in Europe, the FED may decide to be more cautious and raise rates by only 25 basis points.HOW WILL RISING INTEREST RATES AFFECT THE STOCK MARKET?As interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing becomes more expensive. Rising interest rates tend to affect the market immediately, while it may take about 9-12 months for the rest of the economy to see any widespread impact. Higher interest rates are generally negative for stocks, with the exception of the financial sector.WILL RISING INTEREST RATES BURST OUR HOUSING BUBBLE?It is too soon to tell exactly what the impact of rising interest rates will be regarding housing. It is worth noting that in a thriving economy, consumers continue buying. However, in our current economy, where the consumers' monthly payment is not keeping up with the price of gasoline and food, it is more likely to experience a leveling off of residential prices or even the risk of a 2007-2009 repeat of price depreciation.THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTSIZED GAINS IN A BEAR MARKET ARE 7X GREATER THAN A BULL MARKET!The average bull market lasts 2.7 years. From the March low of 2009, the current bull market has established a new record as the longest-running bull market at 12 years and nine months. The average bear market lasts just under ten months, while a few have lasted for several years. It is worth noting that bear markets tend to fall 7x faster than bull markets go up. Bear markets also reflect elevated levels of volatility and investor emotions which contribute significantly to the velocity of the market drop.WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE CURRENT MARKET TRENDS?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24 months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe we are seeing the markets beginning to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into metals, commodities, and other safe havens.IT'S TIME TO GET PREPARED FOR THE COMING STORM; UNDERSTAND HOW TO NAVIGATE THESE TYPES OF MARKETS!I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Is It Time for Brent and WTI Crude Oil Futures to Correct Lower?

Finance Press Release 14.03.2022 17:05

Crude oil prices are slipping from their recent highest levels. Where could we see the next support located?Oil prices fell sharply on Monday – extending last week’s decline – driven by potential progress in Ukraine-Russia talks.India is considering taking advantage of Russia's discounted crude oil and other commodities offers by settling transactions through the rupee/ruble payment system. Meanwhile, on the eastern side, there is a rush to replace the Russian barrels in the west, but immediate availability is limited.In addition, some fears that OPEC+ countries might not be able to easily increase supply remain, even though the UAE said last week that OPEC+ could double the output to the market (about 800,000 bpd) very quickly. However, this sounds very challenging since OPEC+ countries have already struggled to bring in 400,000 bbd.On the Asian side, a slowdown in demand could have been seen as 17 million residents in Shenzhen, the technological centre of southern China, were locked down on Sunday after reports of epidemic outbreaks linked to the neighbouring territory of Hong Kong, where the Omicron strain seems to have spread. There are growing fears that other cities could follow suit to comply with the country's strict zero-COVID policy, adopted by the government of the People's Republic of China.WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 8/3/2022

Purple Trading 14.03.2022 16:01

XAUUSD Decreases, Russia-Ukraine Conflict Remains, Fed Decides

Arkadiusz Sieron 15.03.2022 14:13

It seems that the stalemate in Ukraine has slowed down gold's bold movements. Will the Fed's decision on interest rates revive them again? The tragedy continues. As United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said yesterday, “Ukraine is on fire and being decimated before the eyes of the world.” There have already been 1,663 civilian casualties since the Russian invasion began. What is comforting in this situation is that Russian troops have made almost no advance in recent days (although there has been some progress in southern Ukraine). They are attempting to envelop Ukrainian forces in the east of the country as they advance from the direction of Kharkiv in the north and Mariupol in the south, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to offer staunch resistance across the country. So, it seems that there is a kind of stalemate. The Russians don’t have enough forces to break decisively through the Ukrainian defense, while Ukraine’s army doesn’t have enough troops to launch an effective counteroffensive and get rid of the occupiers. Now, the key question is: in whose favor is time working? On the one hand, Russia is mobilizing fighters from its large country, but also from Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh. The invaders continue indiscriminate shelling and air attacks that cause widespread destruction among civilian population as well. On the other hand, each day Russian army suffers heavy losses, while Ukraine is getting new weapons from the West. Implications for Gold How is gold performing during the war? As the chart below shows, the recent stabilization of the military situation in Ukraine has been negative for the yellow metal. The price of gold slid from its early March peak of $2,039 to $1,954 one week later (and today, the price is further declining). However, please note that gold makes higher highs and higher lows, so the outlook remains rather positive, although corrections are possible. On the other hand, gold’s slide despite the ongoing war and a surge in inflation could be a little disturbing. However, the reason for the decline is simple. It seems that the uncertainty reached its peak last week and has eased since then. As the chart below shows, the CBOE volatility index, also called a fear index, has retreated from its recent peak. The Russian troops have made almost no progress, the most severe response of the West is probably behind us, and the world hasn’t sunk into nuclear war. Meanwhile, the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are taking place, offering some hope for a relatively quick end to the war. As I wrote last week, “there might be periods of consolidation and even corrections if the conflict de-escalates or ends.” The anticipation of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting could also contribute to the slide in gold prices. However, the chart above also shows that credit spreads, another measure of risk perception, have continued to widen in recent days. Other fundamental factors also remain supportive of gold prices. Let’s take, for instance, inflation. As the chart below shows, the annual CPI rate has soared from 7.5% in January to 7.9% in February, the largest move since January 1982. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, surged from 6.0% to 6.4% last month, also the highest reading in forty years. The war in Ukraine can only add to the inflationary pressure. Prices of oil and other commodities have already soared. The supply chains got another blow. The US Congress is expanding its spending again to help Ukraine. Thus, the inflation peak would likely occur later than previously thought. High inflation may become more embedded, which increases the odds of stagflation. All these factors seem to be fundamentally positive for gold prices. There is one “but”. The continuous surge in inflation could prompt monetary hawks to take more decisive actions. Tomorrow, the FOMC will announce its decision on interest rates, and it will probably hike the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. The hawkish Fed could be bearish for gold prices. Having said that, historically, the Fed’s tightening cycle has been beneficial to the yellow metal when accompanied by high inflation. Last time, the price of gold bottomed out around the liftoff. Another issue is that, because of the war in Ukraine, the Fed could adopt a more dovish stance and lift interest rates in a more gradual way, which could be supportive of gold prices. The military situation in Ukraine and tomorrow’s FOMC meeting could be crucial for gold’s path in the near future. The hike in interest rates is already priced in, but the fresh dot-plot and Powell’s press conference could bring us some unexpected changes in US monetary policy. Stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

S&P 500, Crude Oil And Credit Markets Decrease... Only Bitcoin Price Remains "The Same"

Monica Kingsley 15.03.2022 16:03

S&P 500 decline was led by tech, and made possible by credit markets‘ plunge. The 4,160s held on a closing basis, and unless the bulls clear this area pretty fast today, this key support would come under pressure once again over the nearest days. Interestingly, the dollar barely moved, but looking at the daily sea of red across commodities, the greenback would follow these to the downside. Not that real assets including precious metals would be reversing on a lasting basis here – the markets are content that especially black gold keeps flowing at whatever price, to whatever buyer(s) willing to clinch the deal. Sure, it‘s exerting downward pressure on the commodity, but I‘m looking for the extraordinary weakness to be reversed, regardless of: (…) not even the virtual certainty of only 25bp hike in Mar is providing much relief to the credit markets. Given that the real economy is considerably slowing down and that recession looks arriving before Q2 ends, the markets continue forcing higher rates (reflecting inflation). The rising tide of fundamentals constellation favoring higher real asset prices, would continue kicking in, especially when the markets sense a more profound Fed turn than we saw lately with the 50bp into 25bp for Mar FOMC. Make no mistake, the inflation horse has left the barn well over a year ago, and doesn‘t intend to come back or be tamed. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bears won the day, and are likely to regroup next – yes, that doesn‘t rule out a modest upswing that would then fizzle out. Credit Markets HYG woes continue, and credit markets keep raising rates for the Fed. The bears continue having the upper hand. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals haven‘t found the short-term bottom, but it pays to remember that they are often trading subdued before the Fed days. This is no exception, and I‘m fully looking for gold and silver to regain initiative following the cautious Fed tone. Crude Oil Crude oil didn‘t keep above $105, but would revert there in spite of the stagflationary environment (already devouring Europe). With more clarity in the various oil benchmarks, black gold would continue rising over the coming weeks. Copper Copper weakness is another short-term oddity, which I am looking for to be reversed in the FOMC‘s wake. Volume had encouragingly risen yesterday, so I‘m looking for a solid close to the week. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are very modestly turning higher, but I‘m not expecting too much of a run next. As stated yesterday, I wouldn‘t call it as risk-on constellation throughout the markets. Summary S&P 500 got into that precarious position (4,160s) yesterday, but managed to hold above. Given the usual Fed days trading pattern, stocks are likely to bounce a little before the pronouncements are made – only to continue drifting lower in their wake. That‘s valid for the central bank not making the U-turn towards easing again, which is what I‘m expecting to happen in the latter half of this year. Inflation would continue biting, and that means stocks are mired in a giant trading range a la the 1970s. Commodities and precious metals would continue building a base here, only to launch higher in response to (surprise, surprise) stubborn inflation. After all, where else to hide in during stagflations? Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Snowball‘s Chance in Hell

Monica Kingsley 16.03.2022 15:40

S&P 500 is turning around, and odds are that would be so till the FOMC later today. The pressure on Powell to be really dovish, is on. I‘m looking for a lot of uncerrtainty and flexibility introduction, and much less concrete rate hikes talk that wasn‘t sufficient to crush inflation when the going was relatively good, by the way.As stated yesterday:(…) The rising tide of fundamentals constellation favoring higher real asset prices, would continue kicking in, especially when the markets sense a more profound Fed turn than we saw lately with the 50bp into 25bp for Mar FOMC. Make no mistake, the inflation horse has left the barn well over a year ago, and doesn‘t intend to come back or be tamed.Not that real assets including precious metals would be reversing on a lasting basis here – the markets are content that especially black gold keeps flowing at whatever price, to whatever buyer(s) willing to clinch the deal. Sure, it‘s exerting downward pressure on the commodity, but I‘m looking for the extraordinary weakness to be reversed.We‘re seeing such a reversal in commodities already, and precious metals have a „habit“ of joining around the press conference. Yesterday‘s performance of miners and copper, provides good enough a hint.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 upswing looks like it can go on for a while. Interestingly, it was accompanied by oil stocks declining – have we seen THE risk-on turn? This looks to be a temporary reprieve unless the Fed really overdelivers in dovishness.Credit MarketsHYG is catching some bid, and credit markets are somewhat supporting the risk-on turn. Yields though don‘t look to have put in a top just yet, which means the stock market bears would return over the coming days.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are looking very attractive, and the short-term bottom appears at hand – this is the way they often trade before the Fed. I‘m fully looking for gold and silver to regain initiative following the cautious and dovish Fed tone.Crude OilCrude oil didn‘t test the 50-day moving average, and I would expect the bulls to step in here – after all, the Fed can‘t print oil, and when they go dovish, the economy just doesn‘t crash immediately...CopperCopper is refusing to decline, and the odd short-term weakness would be reversed – and the same goes for broader commodities, which have been the subject of my recent tweet.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos aren‘t fully risk-on, but cautiously giving the bulls benefit of the doubt. Not without a pinch of salt, though.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are on the (short-term) run, and definitely need more fuel from the Fed. Significant dovish turn – they would get some, but it wouldn‘t be probably enough to carry risk-on trades through the weekend. The upswing is likely to stall before that, and commodities with precious metals would catch a fresh bid already today. This would be coupled with the dollar not making any kind of upside progress to speak of. The true Fed turn towards easing is though far away still (more than a few months away) – the real asset trades are about patience and tide working in the buyers favor. The yield curve remains flat as a pancake, and more stagflation talk isn‘t too far...Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Oil Prices Keep Falling. Is It Time to Get Long on Black Gold?

Sebastian Bischeri 16.03.2022 16:43

Crude oil continues to decline due to lowered demand, and the petrodollar seems threatened, losing interest. What is the best strategy to take now? Oil prices kept falling this week, driven by potential progress in Ukraine-Russia talks and a potential slowdown in the Giant Panda’s (China) economic growth due to epidemic lockdowns in some regions where a surge of Omicron was observed. As I mentioned in my previous article, India considers getting Russian crude oil supplies and other commodities at a reduced price by settling transactions through a rupee/rouble payment system. Meanwhile, we keep getting rumors – notably reported by The Wall Street Journal – that Saudi Arabia and China are also currently discussing pricing some Saudi oil exports directly in yuan. The Chinese are actively seeking to dethrone the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and this latest development suggests that the petrodollar is now under threat. US Dollar Currency Index (DXY) CFD (daily chart) The recent correction in crude oil, happening just seven days after reaching its 14-year highs, might show some signs that the conflict in Ukraine will slow down consumption. On the other hand, if Iranian and Venezuelan barrels flooded the market, we could see crude oil, petroleum products, and distillates turning into new bear markets. WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Brent Crude Oil (BRNK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) That’s all folks for today – happy trading! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The Commodities Feed: Anticipating LNG Strike Action and Market Dynamics

AMC Stock Price: AMC Entertainment spikes 8% on Wednesday

FXStreet News 17.03.2022 08:29

AMC stock gains on Tuesday as equities and growth stocks rally. More gains are likely on Wednesday for AMC shares as peace hopes rise for Ukraine. AMC Entertainment also saw increased attention from its investment in Hycroft Mining. AMC shares are up 8% to $15.65 as better prospects for peace in Ukraine seem to be lifting up the entire market. The Nasdaq has risen an optimistic 2.7% about one hour into Wednesday's session. Further positivity is in motion with the start of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee two-day meeting that is expected to usher in a 25 basis point rise in the fed funds rate. The rise in interest rates should slow this year's hike in inflation. This price action is certainly exciting for AMC apes, who have witnessed AMC stock drop to the low $13s earlier this week. AMC Entertainment did benefit in Tuesday's afternoon session from its acquisition of Hycroft Mining, but it seems the stock is gaining more interest on Wednesday for this buy. Now its acquisition target, HYMC, has seen its shares go in the opposite direction on Wednesday. HYMC stock is trading down 9% at $1.37 at the time of writing. AMC stock closed higher on Tuesday as investors took comfort from the continued collapse in oil prices and hoped for some form of peace in Ukraine. It was oil that was the big driver for equity markets, and growth stock, in particular, bounced hard as this sector had seen the bigger losses since the year began. It is hard to see guess whether this movie can be sustained long term though as yields have once again moved up. This should stall growth stocks. A peace deal would see further gains for all sectors, but then these may be capped if yields keep rising. The Fed decision later on Wednesday will give us more clarity on this. AMC Stock News The big news yesterday though for AMC apes was the investment in Hycroft Mining by AMC. This was right out of left field and remains a puzzling one to say the least. Hycroft Mining is a gold and silver miner with one mine in Nevada. The company has not turned a profit since 2013 and last November said it may need to raise capital to meet future financial obligations. The company also laid off over half of its workforce at the mine last November. This is a pretty high-risk investment and perhaps AMC and AMC apes are used to that. It was only a small outlet as CEO adam Aron alluded to. Nevertheless, the Hycroft Mining (HYMC) stock price soared as retail investors piled into the name. By the opening of the regular session on Tuesday, HYMC stock was trading nearly 100% higher, but it closed only 9% higher at $1.52 having traded up to $2.97. The reason for the dramatic turnaround was probably a bit of reality set into investors once they had a look at Hycroft Mining and its financial condition. The main reason was a Bloomberg report saying that Hycroft Mining could do a $500 million share sale by as early as next Tuesday. We understand the sale is ongoing and being led by B.Riley Securities. AMC Stock Forecast We were quite negative on this deal on Tuesday and remain so. At least it is not a big investment for AMC, but it still reads poorly. This will not endear AMC stock to further credibility in our view. CNBC carried out a report yesterday about the surge in price and volume trading in HYMC stock before the AMC announcement: "Small mining firm with troubled history saw big spikes in stock price, trading volume ahead of AMC deal." Tuesday's move took AMC back up to our resistance level at $14.54, which was a key breakdown level. Below this and AMC remains bearish. Above $14.54 is neutral. We remain bearish on AMC with a target price of $8.95. AMC stock chart, daily Prior Update: AMC stock opened higher on Wednesday as the stock market remains on edge over the potential for some form of a peace deal in Ukraine. Oil prices falling sharply has also helped investor sentiment. AMC is currently trading at $14.77 for a gain of exactly 2% after 5 minutes of the regular session on Tuesday. Hycroft Mining (HYMC) stock is trading 4% lower at the same stage on Wednesday. Later we get the Fed interest rate decision which may hamper more progress from growth stocks but for now, it is full steam ahead. AMC is back among the top trending stocks on social media sites and interest seems high. $14.54 remains a key level for AMC to hold above if it wants to have put a bottom formation in place. Otherwise, it will return to the bearish trend and look to target $8.95 in our view.

The release of Chinese GDP, Bank of Canada interest rate decision and more - InstaForex talks the following week (part I)

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Has Increased Significantly Yesterday

Chris Vermeulen 17.03.2022 13:08

THE SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX HAS DROPPED MORE THAN 40% FROM ITS PEAK IN JUST 2 ½ MONTHS! China Stocks: This morning bottom pickers around the globe are snatching up what they believe to be “bargain basement priced stocks” as the Hang Seng Index gained 9.1% during today’s March 16, 2022 trading session. It was the best day for the HSI since the 2008 financial crisis as the Chinese government pledged to support markets. Tensions are running high as Chinese nickel giant Tsingshan Holding Group, the world’s biggest producer of nickel used in stainless steel and electric-vehicle batteries was sitting on $8 billion in trading losses. According to the Wall Street Journal on March 9, 2022 “The London Metal Exchange suspended the nickel market early last Tuesday, the first time it had paused trading in a metal contract since the collapse of an international tin cartel in 1985. The decision followed a near doubling in prices over a few hours.” ETFs CAN BE USED SPECIFICALLY FOR SEASONS AND DIRECTION! According to Statista www.statista.com on January 11, 2022, the assets managed by ETFs globally amounted to approximately 7.74 trillion U.S. dollars in 2020. With more than 8,000 ETFs to choose from, you can find just about any flavor you need or are looking for. A Kondratieff Wave is a long-term economic cycle that consists of four sub-cycles or phases that are also known as Kondratieff Seasons. This theory was founded by Nikolai D. Kondratieff 1892-1938 (also spelled “Kondratiev”), a communist Russia-era economist who noticed agricultural commodities and metals experienced long-term cycles. The following graph illustrates both the inflation cycle as well as the best investments for each season. The Kondratieff Seasons act as a general guide and each investment has their own specific bull or bear market cycle. ETFs CAN OFFER YOU PROTECTION AND AGILITY IN A BULL OR BEAR MARKET! The following ETFs are not a recommendation to buy or sell but simply an illustration to emphasize the utilization of selecting an ETF for capital protection or potential appreciation in either a rising ‘BULL’ or falling ‘BEAR’ market. YINN – DIREXION DAILY FTSE CHINA STOCKS BULL 3X SHARES ETF From February 17, 2021, to March 14, 2022 the Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3x Shares ETF ‘YINN’ lost -90.78%. Target Index: The FTSE China 50 Index (TXINOUNU) consists of the 50 largest and most liquid public Chinese companies currently trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as determined by the FTSE/Russell. Constituents in the Index are weighted based on total market value so that companies with larger total market values will generally have a greater weight in the Index. Index constituents are screened for liquidity, and weightings are capped to limit the concentration of any one stock in the Index. However, one cannot directly invest in an index. According to Direxion’s website www.direxion.com, Leveraged and Inverse ETFs pursue leveraged investment objectives, which means they are riskier than alternatives that do not use leverage. They seek daily goals and should not be expected to track the underlying index over periods longer than one day. They are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by investors who understand leverage risk and who actively manage their investments. YANG – DIREXION DAILY FTSE CHINA STOCKS BEAR 3X SHARES ETF From February 17, 2021, to March 14, 2022, The Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3x Shares ETF gained +418.38%. The rates of return shown for the YINN and YANG ETFs are not precise in that they are an estimation as displayed on a chart utilizing the charts measurement tool to emphasize my talking point. Sign up for my free Trading Newsletter to navigate potential major market opportunities! ALERT: THE US FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE WAS RASIED A QUARTER POINT! In February, the inflation rate rose to 7.9% as food and energy costs pushed prices to their highest level in more than 40 years. If we exclude food and energy, core inflation still rose 6.4%, which was still the highest since August 1982. Gasoline, groceries, and housing were the biggest contributors to the CPI gain. The FED was expected to raise interest rates by as much as 50 basis points. However, investors are speculating that due to the Russia – Ukraine war, the FED may be more cautious and raise rates by only 25 basis points. WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS with US and CHINA STOCKS? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24 months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe we are seeing the markets beginning to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into metals, commodities, and other safe-havens. UNDERSTAND HOW TO NAVIGATE OUR VOLATILE MARKETS! GET READY, GET SET, GO -I invite you to learn more about how my three ETF Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Interaction Between Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) And Fed's Interest Rate Decision

Przemysław Radomski 17.03.2022 16:07

The Fed will want to keep inflation under control, and that could have miserable consequences for gold and miners. Will we see a repeat from 2008? The question one of my subscribers asked me was about the rise in mining stocks and gold and how it was connected to what was happening in bond yields. Precisely, while short-term and medium-term yields moved higher, very long-term yields (the 30-year yields) dropped, implying that the Fed will need to lower the rates again, indicating a stagflationary environment in the future. First of all, I agree that stagflation is likely in the cards, and I think that gold will perform similarly to how it did during the previous prolonged stagflation – in the 1970s. In other words, I think that gold will move much higher in the long run. However, the market might have moved ahead of itself by rallying yesterday. After all, the Fed will still want to keep inflation under control (reminder: it has become very political!), and it will want commodity prices to slide in response to the foregoing. This means that the Fed will still likely make gold, silver, and mining stocks move lower in the near term. In particular, silver and mining stocks are likely to decline along with commodities and stocks, just like what happened in 2008. Speaking of commodities, let’s take a look at what’s happening in copper. Copper invalidated another attempt to move above its 2011 high. This is a very strong technical sign that copper (one of the most popular commodities) is heading lower in the medium term. Yes, it might be difficult to visualize this kind of move given the recent powerful upswing, but please note that it’s in perfect tune with the previous patterns. The interest rates are going up, just like they did before the 2008 slide. What did copper do before the 2008 slide? It failed to break above the previous (2006) high, and it was the failure of the second attempt to break higher that triggered the powerful decline. What happened then? Gold declined, but silver and mining stocks truly plunged. The GDXJ was not trading at the time, so we’ll have to use a different proxy to see what this part of the mining stock sector did. The Toronto Stock Exchange Venture Index includes multiple junior mining stocks. It also includes other companies, but juniors are a large part of it, and they truly plunged in 2008. In fact, they plunged in a major way after breaking below their medium-term support lines and after an initial corrective upswing. Guess what – this index is after a major medium-term breakdown and a short-term corrective upswing. It’s likely ready to fall – and to fall hard. So, what’s likely to happen? We’re about to see a huge slide, even if we don’t see it within the next few days. In fact, the outlook for the next few days is rather unclear, as different groups of investors can interpret yesterday’s developments differently. However, once the dust settles, the precious metals sector is likely to go down significantly. Gold is up in today’s pre-market trading, but please note that back in 2020, after the initial post-top slide, gold corrected even more significantly, and it wasn’t really bullish. This time gold doesn’t have to rally to about $2,000 before declining once again, as this time the rally was based on war, and when we consider previous war-based rallies (U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, U.S. invasion of Iraq, Russia’s invasion of Crimea), we know that when the fear-and-uncertainty-based top was in, then the decline proceeded without bigger corrections. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 (SPX) - It Looks Like Fed Decision Was Needed To Go Up

Monica Kingsley 17.03.2022 15:57

S&P 500 reversed the pre-FOMC decline, and turned up. The upswing didn‘t fizzle out after the conference, quite to the contrary, the credit markets deepened their risk-on posture. I guess stocks are buying the story of 7 rate hikes and balance sheet reduction in 2022 a bit too enthusiastically. Not gonna happen, next quarter‘s GDP data would probably be already negative. Yet Powell says that the risk of recession into next year isn‘t elevated – given the projected tightening, I beg to differ. But of course, Powell is right – it‘s only that we won‘t see all those promised hikes, let alone balance sheet reduction starting in spring. Inflation would retreat a little towards year‘s end (on account of recessionary undercurrents and modest tightening), only to surprise once again in 2023 on the upside. I already wrote so weeks ago – before the East European events. There wouldn‘t enough time to celebrate the notion of vanquishing inflation. For now, stocks can continue the bullish turn – just as commodities and precious metals aren‘t asking permission. The FOMC is over, and real assets can rise, including the badly beaten crude oil. Made a good decision to keep adding to the commodities positions at much lower prices (or turning bullish stocks around the press conference). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 upswing looks like it can go on for a while. It was driven by tech, participating more enthusiastically than value. The conditions are in place for the rally to continue, and it‘s likely that Friday would be a better day than Thursday for the bulls. Credit Markets HYG is catching quite some bid, and credit markets have turned decidedly risk-on. It also looks like a sigh of relief over no 50bp hike – the stock market rally got its hesitant ally. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals upswing can return – and this correction wasn‘t anyway sold heavily into. Needless to say how overdone it was if you look at the miners. $1950s would be reconquered easily. Crude Oil Crude oil bottom looks to be in, and $110s are waiting. Obviously it would take more than a couple of days to return there, but we‘re on the way. Copper Copper is rebounding, and even if other base metals aren‘t yet following too enthusiastically, $4.70 isn‘t far away. Coupled with precious metals returning to more reasonable values, the red metal would continue trending higher. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are leaning risk-on, and the bulls will close this weekend on a good note. Today‘s price action is merely a consolidation in a short-term upswing. Summary S&P 500 bulls got enough fuel from the Fed, and the run can continue – albeit at a slower pace. Importantly, credit markets aren‘t standing in the short-term way, but I think they would carve out a bearish divergence when this rally starts topping out. I‘m not looking for fresh ATHs, the headwinds are too stiff, but as stated within today‘s key analysis, the tech participation is a very encouraging sign for the short-term. The dollar indeed didn‘t make any kind of upside progress to speak of yesterday – and as I have also written at length in yesterday‘s report, the pre-FOMC trading pattern in real assets can be reversed now. Long live precious metals, oil and copper gains! Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

What Is Going On Financial Markets Today? Russia Will Not Resume Deliveries Of Gas

"Boring" Bitcoin (BTC) And Gaining S&P 500 (SPX). Crude Oil Price Chart Shows A Green Candle At The Right Hand Side,

Monica Kingsley 18.03.2022 15:50

S&P 500 extended gains, and the risk appetite in bonds carried over into value rising faster than tech. Given the TLT downswing though, it‘s all but rainbows and unicorns ahead today. Not only that quad witching would bring high volume and chop, VIX itself doesn‘t look to slide smoothly below 25 today. Friday‘s ride would be thus rocky, and affected by momentum stalling in both tech and value. Real assets though can and will enjoy the deserved return into the spotlight. With much of the preceding downswing being based on deescalation hopes (that aren‘t materializing, still), the unfolding upswing in copper, oil and precious metals (no, they aren‘t to be spooked by the tough Fed tightening talk) would happen at a more measured pace than had been the case recently. Pay attention to the biting inflation, surrounding blame games hinting at no genuine respite – read through the rich captions of today‘s chart analyses, and think about reliable stores of real value. And of course, enjoy the open profits. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 looks likely to consolidate as the 4,400 – 4,450 zone would be tough to overcome, and such a position relative to both the moving averages shown, has historically stopped quite a few steep recoveries off very negative sentiment readings. Credit Markets HYG is likely to slow down here, as in really stall and face headwinds. The run had been respectable, and much of the easy gains happened already yesterday. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals upswing did indeed return – and the miners performance doesn‘t hint at a swift return of the bears, to put it mildly. The path to $1950s is open. Crude Oil Crude oil bottom was indeed in, and the price can keep recovering towards $110s and beyond. No, the economy isn‘t crashing yet, monetary policy isn‘t forcing that outcome, and the drawing of petroleum reserves is a telltale sign of upside price pressures mounting. It‘ll be an interesting April, mark my words. Copper Copper is duly rebounding, and not at all overheated. The move is also in line with other base metals. My yesterday‘s target of $4.70 has already been reached – I‘m looking for a measured pace of gains to continue. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are taking a small break, highlighting the perils of today. The boat won‘t be rocked too much. Summary S&P 500 bulls made the easy gains already yesterday, and today‘s session is going to be volatile, even treacherous in establishing a clear and lasting direction (i.e. choppy), and the headwinds would be out there in the plain open. These would come from bonds not continuing in the risk-on turn convincingly rather than commodities and metals surging head over heels. Both tech and value would feel the heat as VIX would show signs of waking up (to some degree). Today‘s session won‘t change the big picture dynamics of late, and I invite you to read more in-depth commentary within the individual market sections of today‘s full analysis. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Soft Commodities Speculator’s Soybean Meal bullish bets rise for 7th week to 197-week high

Invest Macro 19.03.2022 15:48

Price Of Crude Oil And Price Of Gold Crosses Each Other

Alex Kuptsikevich 21.03.2022 12:14

Gold has remained in a one-and-a-half per cent range since last Thursday. The correction from a peak of $2070 to values below $1900 caused a brief aftershock, but it was not sustained. Gold has now stabilised above the peaks of May and June last year and is currently searching for further meaningful momentum. For short-term traders, gold has taken a back seat as markets try to assess the impact of disrupted supply chains and the amount of supply shortfall in raw materials and food. At the same time, medium-term traders should not lose sight of the fact that the current situation will not allow central banks to act adequately. As a result, the supply of fiat money will increase faster than the supply of commodities. In other words, we should expect greater tolerance for higher inflation from the CBs. In addition, governments should also be expected to provide financial support to the economy. In practice, that means more money supply and a higher level of public debt to GDP. And that is another disincentive for monetary policy, which is negative for the currency. It is also favourable for gold, which is used as protection against capital depreciation. Oil is gradually becoming the opposite of gold. After bouncing back to the trend support level of the last four months, Brent got back above $100 reasonably quickly and is adding 4% on Monday, trading at $109. Speculative demand for oil is picking up again amid discussions of a Russian energy divestment, which could be the agenda for the EU leaders and Biden meeting later this week. In addition, the US oil supply has been slow to rise, with data on Friday showing that the number of working oil drilling rigs declined a week earlier. Oil producers appear to be cautious about demand prospects with record fuel prices and are in no hurry to flood the market. This will fuel prices in the short term but is becoming an increasing drag on the economy in the medium term. Locally, we also risk suggesting that Europe will once again make it clear that it cannot substitute Russian energy, preferring to focus on sanctions against other sectors. And that could prove to be a dampening factor for oil later in the week. Oil prices above 110 still look unsustainably high, and a range with support at $85 looks more adequate for the coming months.

S&P 500 (SPX) Up, Crude Oil Up, Credit Markets Up, Bitcoin Price Oops...

Monica Kingsley 21.03.2022 15:37

S&P 500 did really well through quad witching, and the same goes for credit markets. 4-day streak of non-stop gains – very fast ones. Short squeeze characteristics in the short run, makes me think this rally fizzles out before the month ends – 4,600 would hold. We‘re likely to make a higher low next, and that would be followed by 4-6 weeks of rally continuation before the bears come back with real force again. July would present a great buying opportunity in this wild year of a giant trading range. As I wrote yesterday: (…) The paper asset made it through quad witching in style - both stocks and bonds. The risk-on sentiment however didn't sink commodities or precious metals. Wednesday's FOMC brought worries over the Fed sinking real economy growth but Powell's conference calmed down fears through allegedly no recession risks this year, ascribing everything to geopolitics. Very convenient, but the grain of truth is that the Fed wouldn't indeed jeopardize GDP growth this year - that's the context of how to read the allegedly 7 rate hikes and balance sheet shrinking this year still. Not gonna happen as I stated on Thursday already. Such are my short- and medium-term thoughts on stocks. Copper remains best positioned to continue rising with relatively little volatility while crude oil isn‘t yet settled (its good times would continue regardless of the weak volume rally of last two days, which is making me a little worried). Precious metals are still basing, and would continue moving higher best on the Fed underperforming in its hawkish pronouncements. No way they‘re hiking 7 times this year and shrinking balance sheet at the same time as I wrote on Thursday – Treasury yields say they‘ll take on inflation more in 2023. 2022 is a mere warm-up. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is now past the 4,400 – 4,450 zone, and hasn‘t yet consolidated. This week would definitely though not be as bullish as the one just gone by – the bulls will be challenged a little. Credit Markets HYG eked out more gains, but the air is slowly becoming thinner. As the sentiment turns more bullish through no deep decline over the coming few days, that‘s when junk bonds would start wavering. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals aren‘t turning down for good here – I think they‘re deciphering the Fed story of hiking slower than intended, which in effect gives inflation a new lease on life. Not that it was wavering, though. More upside in gold and silver to come. Crude Oil Crude oil is rising again, but look for a measured upswing that‘s not free from headwinds. While I think we would climb above $110 still, I‘m sounding a more cautious note given the decreasing volume – I would like to see more conviction next. Copper Copper is behaving, and would continue rising reliably alongside other commodities. It‘s also the best play considering downside protection at the moment. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin isn‘t recovering Sunday‘s setback – but the Ethereum upswing bodes well for risk taking today, even that doesn‘t concern cryptos all too much. Summary S&P 500 has a bit more to run before running into headwinds, which would happen still this week. Credit markets are a tad too optimistic, and rising yields would leave a mark especially on tech. Value, energy and materials are likely to do much better. Crude oil is bound to be volatile over the coming weeks, but still rising and spiking – not yet settled. Copper and precious metals present better appreciation opportunities when looking at their upcoming volatility. Within today‘s key analysis, I‘ve covered the path of stocks, so do have a good look at the opening part. Finally, cryptos likewise paint the picture of risk-on trades not being over just yet. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Hawkish Fed „Surprise“

Monica Kingsley 22.03.2022 15:55

S&P 500 wavered but is bound to get its act together in the medium term. Powell‘s statements shouldn‘t have stunned the bulls, but they did – the mere reiteration of the tightening plans coupled with remarks on the need to stamp out aggressive inflation before it‘s too late (anchored inflation expectations, anyone? I talked that in the run up to the Sep 2021 P&G price hikes and how the competition would be following in a nod to high input costs, with heating job market on top of the commodities pressure pinching back then already), sent stocks and bonds down.Add the recession fears that were assuaged during the Wednesday‘s conference, and you get the S&P 500 bulls having to dust off after Monday‘s setback. Given how early we‘re in the tightening cycle, and that the real economy isn‘t yet breaking down no matter what‘s in the pipeline geopolitically as regards various consequences to commodities, goods, services and money flows, the stock market bulls are still likely to take on the 4,600 as discussed already.Only this time, the upswing would be accompanied by a more measured and balanced commodities upswing, joined in by precious metals. Great profits ahead and already in the making.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is consolidating above 4,400, and the relative strength in value as opposed to tech, is boding well – the bulls are pushing their luck a bit too hard as a further TLT decline would pressure growth stocks.Credit MarketsHYG is getting under pressure again, but its decline would be uneven in the short run – as in I‘m looking for quite some back and forth action. First, higher in taking on yesterday‘s selling.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals aren‘t turning lower in earnest – the miners‘ leadership bodes well for further gains, and is actually a very good performance given the hawkish Fed „surprise“ (surprise that wasn‘t, shouldn‘t have been).Crude OilCrude oil strength returning is a very good omen for commodities bulls broadly, and the rising volume hints at return of bullish spirits. The upswing is far from over – look how far black gold got on relatively little conviction, and where oil stocks trade at the moment.CopperCopper is acting strongly, and the downswing didn‘t entice the bears much. The path of least resistance remains higher, and the red metal isn‘t yet outperforming the CRB Index. Great pick for portfolio gains with as little volatility as can be.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin went on to recover the weekend setback – Ethereum upswing presaged that. They‘re both a little stalling now, but entering today‘s regular session on a constructive note. I‘m looking for modest gains extension.SummaryS&P 500 is bound to recover from yesterday‘s intraday setback – the animal spirits and positive seasonality are there to overcome the brief realization that the Fed talks seriously about tightening and entrenched inflation. While not even the implied readiness to hike by 50bp here and there won‘t cut it and send inflation to the woodshed, let alone inflation expectations, the recession fears would be the next powerful ally of stock market bears. For now though, we‘re muddling through generally higher (I‘m still looking for a tradable consolidation of last week‘s sharp gains), and will do so over the coming several weeks. The real profits are to be had in commodities and precious metals, as I had been saying quite often lately… Enjoy!Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

The Bitcoin Market Is Now Developing The Corrective Cycle To The Downside

March 22nd, 2022, Crypto Chartbook

Korbinian Koller 22.03.2022 19:44

Bitcoin´s time to go Trying to pick tops and bottoms is honorable and a desirable goal. Nevertheless, there needs to be other insurances and principles in place. If an ideal spot passes or the market doesn’t provide for a low-risk entry or enough liquidity for an exit, one still needs alternate tools to participate in the market. Our quad exit strategy allows for position building and market participation that consistently extracts monies from the markets. Bitcoin, daily chart, keep calm and keep trading: Bitcoin in USD, daily chart as of March 22nd, 2022. Precision trading gets even more difficult in wartimes, when frequent and conflicting news events jolt prices alternating up and down. The daily chart above shows these jolts over the last three weeks of wartime. We can identify three low-risk long trade entry opportunities (green up arrows on double bottom price scenarios) and one short trading one (red downward arrow at a double top price formation). Our quad exit strategy takes on each of these trades a partial initial profit to mitigate risk, which allows the remainder position size to be the market’s money at risk only. Bitcoin, weekly chart, pushing up: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 22nd, 2022. Zooming out to larger time frames is another way to avoid noise and see a trading scenario more clearly, and, as such, find “go times” with more accuracy. This weekly chart illustrates that entries and exits are rather entry zones (red and green boxes) versus a precise price level. The trader’s goal is to exploit within such a zone a low-risk entry spot on a lower time frame to get positioned. Regarding bitcoin, we find overall price behavior to be up sloping over the last twelve months, a bullish notion. And we find a high likelihood for the momentary entry zone (green box to the right of the chart). In other words, we are right now in a price zone where its Bitcoin´s time to go. Bitcoin, monthly chart, March closing price: Bitcoin in USD, monthly chart as of March 22nd, 2022. Suppose we further remove ourselves from the noise by electing a higher timeframe. In that case, we find a pat situation on the monthly chart, pat not for a more significant edge for prices to go higher up but for timing on when to enter the markets. Our statistics show that it will be essential on what price level the month of March will be closing. With a close above current levels (white line), we will enter a bullish buy zone. Yet, if prices decline from here in the last nine days of this month, the probabilities of an immediate price advance rapidly decline. Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart, Bitcoin´s time to go: Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart as of March 22nd, 2022. An additional benefit quiet charting provides in turbulent times is to think outside the box. While all noise points toward the most heated issues, finding a trading opportunity elsewhere might be best. In our previous chart book release, we exploited a great go time for bitcoin. Last week, we provided entry points (green up arrows) for rotating one’s gold into bitcoin. Using our quad exit strategy, the trader who wanted to not expose his money to a volatile fiat currency trading world could profit near ten percent on his first fifty percent of position size. We are now placing the stop for the remainder position size to breakeven entry levels. Bitcoin´s time to go: In war, the first casualty is the truth. Under stress, our minds insist on reason, clarity, precise calls for action. Unfortunately, even the best-informed brightest minds can’t find reliable data in times of war since the distortion field of media around the world is at a level where lies and propaganda outweigh facts and truth. Luckily, a trader can, in these times, rely more heavily on charts. Charts always encompass the sum of opinion. Charts are consistently working as a reliable source to trade from. The psychological aspect is hugely beneficial since a consistent bombardment of news and everybody’s opinion can get quickly exhausting. Reduce news data consumption at a time when calm and levelheadedness is the most powerful tool for wealth creation and preservation, and the “go time” will reveal itself nearly effortlessly. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 22nd, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Bitcoin Price Hits $42k, ETH And AVAX Have Decreased, Polkadot (DOT) Gained

Alex Kuptsikevich 23.03.2022 09:12

BTC rose 3.5% on Tuesday. At the peak of the day, the rate exceeded $43.2K, but by Wednesday morning, it rolled back to $42K, demonstrating a 0.7% correction. Growth without solid reasons? Bitcoin tested 19-day highs above $43,000 supported by stock indexes with Chinese equities predominantly pulling it. BTC rose sharply during the Asian session, adding about $2,000 in a few hours, although a corrective mood then prevailed. Bitcoin clearly doesn't have a reason for a solid establishment on the path of growth yet. Ethereum is losing 1% over 24 hours, while other leading altcoins from the top ten showed mixed dynamics yesterday: from a decline of 2.7% (Avalanche) to a rise of 3.8% (Polkadot). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 0.5%, to $1.91 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index fell by 0.1% to 41.9%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index added another 5 points to 31, although it remains in a "fear" state. BTC is ready for sharp swing At the moment, on-chain metrics are consistent with a bear market, Glassnode notes. The rise in implied volatility and higher leverage in the derivatives market point to the possibility of a sharp swing in bitcoin. However, the sell-off in "defensive" developed-country government bonds continues in financial markets as investors park their money in stocks and commodities that provide the best hedge against prolonged and high inflation. At the same time, there are no clear signs of an economic and financial catastrophe that could hurt stocks or commodities. The world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates plans to invest in one of the third-party crypto funds, pointing to the risks for fiat currencies, which lose sharply during periods of military and economic wars.

What Will Be The Impact Of Rising Rates On Stocks & Commodities?

Chris Vermeulen 23.03.2022 21:33

Investors and traders alike are concerned about what investments they should make on behalf of their portfolios and retirement accounts. We, at TheTechnicalTraders.com, continue to monitor stocks and commodities closely due to the Russia-Ukraine War, market volatility, surging inflation, and rising interest rates. Several of our subscribers have asked if changes in monitor policy may lead to a recession as higher rates take a bigger bite out of corporate profits.As technical traders, we look exclusively at the price action to provide specific clues as to the current trend or a potential change in trend. We review our charts for both stocks and commodities to see what we can learn from the most recent price action. Before we dive into that, let’s review the various stages of the market; with special attention given to expansion vs. contraction in a rising interest rate environment which you can see illustrated below.PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR STOCK PORTFOLIOWe are keeping an especially close eye on the price action of the SPY ETF. The current resistance for the SPY is the 475 top that happened around January 6, 2022. This top was 212.5% of the March 23, 2020, low that was put in at the height of the Covid global pandemic.The SPY found support in the 410 area at the end of February. If you recall (or didn't know), 410 was the Fibonacci 1.618 or 161.8% percent of the Covid 2020 price drop. Now, after experiencing a nice rally back, of a little over 50%, we are waiting to see if the rally can continue or if rotation will occur, sending the price back lower.COMMODITY MARKETS SURGEDThe commodity markets experienced a tremendous rally due to fast-rising inflation, especially energy, metals, and food prices.The GSG ETF price action shows that we recently touched 200%, or the doubling of the April 21, 2020, low. Immediately following, similar to the SPY, the GSCI commodity index promptly sold off only to then find substantial buying support at the Fibonacci 1.618 or 161.8 percent of the starting low price of the bull trend. Resistance for the GSG is at 26, and support is 21.A STRENGTHENING US DOLLARThe strengthening US dollar can be attributed to investors seeking a safe haven from geopolitical events, surging inflation, and the Fed beginning to raise rates. The US Dollar is still considered the primary reserve currency as the greatest portion of forex reserves held by central banks are in dollars. Furthermore, most commodities, including gold and crude oil, are also denominated in dollars.Consider the following statement from the Bank of International Settlements www.bis.org ‘Triennial Central Bank Survey’ published September 16, 2019: “The US dollar retained its dominant currency status, being on one side of 88% of all trades.” The report also highlighted, “Trading in FX markets reached $6.6 trillion per day in April 2019, up from $5.1 trillion three years earlier.” That’s a lot of dollars traded globally and confirms that we need to stay current on the dollars price action.Multinational companies are especially keeping a close eye on the dollar as any major shift in global money flows will seriously negatively impact their net profit and subsequent share value.The following chart by www.finviz.com provides us with a current snapshot of the relative performance of the US dollar vs. major global currencies over the past year:KNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, AND APPLICATION ARE NEEDEDIt is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and somewhat surprisingly, we entered five new trades earlier this week, two of which have now hit their first profit target levels. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/3/2022

Purple Trading 23.03.2022 19:52

Soft Commodities Speculators raise Corn bullish bets higher for 5th week, to 46-week high

Invest Macro 26.03.2022 23:30

Volatility Retreats As Stocks & Commodities Rally

Chris Vermeulen 28.03.2022 21:32

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index. It is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates that are utilized to generate a 30-day forward projection of volatility. The VIX allows us to gauge market sentiment or the degree of fear among market participants. As the Volatility Index VIX goes up, fear increases, and as it goes down, fear dissipates.Commodities and equities are both showing renewed strength on the heels of global interest rate increases. Inflation shows no sign of abating as energy, metals, food products, and housing continues their upward bias.During the last 18-months, the VIX has been trading between its upper resistance of 36.00 and its lower support of 16.00. As the Volatility Index VIX falls, fear subsides, and money flows back into stocks.VIX – VOLATILITY S&P 500 INDEX – CBOE – DAILY CHARTSPY RALLIES +10%The SPY has enjoyed a sharp rally back up after touching its Fibonacci 1.618% support based on its 2020 Covid price drop. Money has been flowing back into stocks as investors seem to be adapting to the current geopolitical environment and the change in global central bank lending rate policy.Resistance on the SPY is the early January high near 475, while support remains solidly in place at 414. March marks the 2nd anniversary of the 2020 Covid low that SPY made at 218.26 on March 23, 2020.SPY – SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST - ARCA – DAILY CHARTBERKSHIRE HATHAWAY RECORD-HIGH $538,949!Berkshire Hathaway is up +20.01% year to date compared to the S&P 500 -4.68%. Berkshire’s Warren Buffet has also been on a shopping spree, and investors seem to be comforted that he is buying stocks again. Buffet reached a deal to buy insurer Alleghany (y) for $11.6 billion and purchased nearly a 15% stake in Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $8 billion.These acquisitions seem to be well-timed as insurers and banks tend to benefit from rising interest rates, and Occidental generates the bulk of its cash flow from the production of crude oil.As technical traders, we look exclusively at the price action to provide specific clues as to the current trend or a potential change in trend. With that said, Berkshire is a classic example of not fighting the market. As Berkshire continues to make new highs, its’ trend is up!BRK.A – BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. - NYSE – DAILY CHARTCOMMODITY DEMAND REMAINS STRONGInflation continues to run at 40-year highs, and it appears that it will take more than one FED rate hike to subdue prices. Since price is King, we definitely want to ride this trend and not fight it. It is always nice to buy on a pullback, but the energy markets at this point appear to be rising exponentially. The XOP ETF gave us some nice buying opportunities earlier at the Fibonacci 0.618% $71.78 and the 0.93% $93.13 of the COVID 2020 range high-low.Remember, the trend is your friend, as many a trader has gone broke trying to pick or sell a top before its time! Well-established uptrends like the XOP are perfect examples of how utilizing a trailing stop can keep a trader from getting out of the market too soon but still offer protection in case of a sudden trend reversal.XOP – SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORE & PRODUCT – ARCA – DAILY CHARTKNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, AND APPLICATION ARE NEEDEDIt is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and somewhat surprisingly, we entered five new trades last week, four of which have now hit their first profit target levels. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Furthermore, successfully trading is not limited to when to buy or sell stocks or commodities. Money and risk management play a critical role in becoming a consistently profitable trader. Correct position sizing utilizing stop-loss orders helps preserve your investment capital and allows traders to manage their portfolios according to their desired risk parameters. Additionally, scaling out of positions by taking profits and moving stop-loss orders to breakeven can complement ones’ success.WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Natural Gas News - What Is The Market's Reaction To The Ongoing Russia-Ukraine Conflict?

Alex Kuptsikevich 01.04.2022 14:46

The energy sector has retreated markedly from its highs in the first days of March but remains a hot topic for markets. Europe’s gas market survived several bouts of fear that it would be without Russian gas. However, we only saw a fourfold increase in value in the first half of the month, followed by stabilisation at high, but not extreme, levels. At the beginning of the last week of March, the price was supported by a fall to EUR 1000 per thousand cubic metres compared to a peak of EUR 3400. This price dynamic clearly showed that the markets did not price for a gas disaster. The current gas payment scheme looks like a nice political compromise. Europe is paying for gas in euros and dollars (as negotiated), and Russia is getting roubles for gas (as it wanted). The net economic effect of such rearrangements is close to zero. Also, these measures are not binding for LNG exports and settlements with Japan. Besides, there is a caveat that a special commission may allow receiving currency in payment for gas. An additional calculation here is that new contracts will always include clauses about alternative payment methods, but they have little effect on the price. Nevertheless, the general upward trend in gas and oil prices is still in place. Spot gas prices in Europe are now six times higher than a year ago and two years ago in March. This does not mean a six-fold increase in prices for final consumers, as most supplies are under long-term contracts. Therefore, what we see in the Dutch TTF prices is nothing more than a struggle between speculators and small buyers in a relatively illiquid market. The NYMEX pricing is much more liquid and representative. Besides, it is pretty far from the conflict. Prices here are up 30% in one month and 130% year to date. Gas was up to $5.6 MMBtu yesterday but 14% below October’s highs near $6.5, making it hard to see market hysteria. Instead, it is just a relatively measured trend. The development of this trend has the potential to return the US gas price to October highs by the end of April due to Europe’s increased interest in non-Russian gas. At the same time, signs that Europe and Russia have managed to formalise some gas purchase terms for themselves are likely to return Dutch’s spot prices to levels near or below EUR 1000.

COT Soft Commodities Speculators raise Cocoa bullish bets to 5-week high

Invest Macro 02.04.2022 16:40

Commodities Speculators push their Sugar bullish bets to 15-week high

Invest Macro 09.04.2022 12:55

Coffee: Brazil And Columbia Are Reducing The Production

Coffee Futures Have Gone Up, Black Gold Price Decreased. Financial Dictionary - What Are Commodities?

Rebecca Duthie 11.04.2022 12:42

There are 4 broad categories of commodities that exist; livestock, agriculture, energy and metals. The trading of commodities is the exchange of different assets by means of futures contracts and many other platforms such as mutual funds, ETFs and stocks. Commodities can be used as a form of hedge against market volatility as the price of commodities often move in the opposite direction to stocks. Commodities are known as being risky investments because their market is dependent on aspects that are hard to predict such as; weather, disease, and natural disasters. The commodities that are being analyzed today are Gold, Crude Oil and Coffee. Gold: since the market opened, the price of gold has risen by 0.86%. The commodity is trading within a fairly stable range, it is not forming any distinct trends at this point in time, this could be due to the uncertainty around the current war in the Ukraine. Likewise, the rise in the US treasury yield strengthened the US dollar and therefore the potential for higher interest rates are preventing people from jumping on the bandwagon and buying gold. Price Of Gold Chart Crude oil, Crude prices fell as much as 2.56% as consumers worldwide announced their plans to release crude oil from their strategic stocks. The crude oil prices are falling in conjunction with the rising US gasoline stocks rising. However, whether or not the price drop is warranted is up for debate seeing as the US demand for oil remains high. At this point, it is uncertain as to which way the oil price will go (up or down). Crude Oil Chart The price of coffee futures is up today by at least 1.17%. Coffee: Coffee is traded in the form of futures. Futures contracts are a form of commodity trading whereby there is an exchange of contracts for assets that are bought at an agreed price but delivered and paid for later at an agreed date. The price of coffee futures is up today by at least 1.17%. Perhaps the price hike can be explained by the prediction that there will be a poor harvest in coffee coming in the future. We should watch for the potential downshift in the balance of coffee prices due to the potential for an economic downturn, increase in consumption costs and reduced consumptions and reduced imports due to the War in Ukraine. Coffee Futures Chart Charts: finance.yahoo.com

CZK: Koruna's Resilience Amid Global Influences - 16.08.2023

Rising Yields, Plunging Stockmarkets. What About Commodities And Inflation? US CPI Is Released Today! Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank 12.04.2022 12:01

Podcast 2022-04-12 11:05 20 minutes to read Summary: Today's podcast looks at the latest weak session for global equity markets, the potential mindset on inflationary risks having possibly pivoted as shown in the US yield curve as the Fed may be irrevocably behind the curve for now. What this could mean for equities in terms of historic market parallels is explored - particularly the interesting way that German equities were valued during the varying phases of the early 1920's hyperinflation. Today's pod is hosted by John J. Hardy, head of FX Strategy. Listen to today’s podcast and have a look at today’s slide deck. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it. Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.

Forex News: AUDUSD, are sellers setting up a new extension lower?

8 eightcap 13.04.2022 10:56

Today we are looking at the AUDUSD as sellers look to be pushing at a new extension lower. After yesterday’s rally stalled at resistance so far today, we have seen momentum squarely back with sellers. Overall price remains in a long term uptrend, but since the last April high was put in, buyers have struggled to get momentum going with a charging USD continuing to pressure the AUD. Despite Australian inflation pressure and talk of rates increasing in June, this is overshadowed by 40-year high inflation in the States and Fed members vowing to act. Since that high, we have watched a new downtrend develop with price making its first leg lower, returning to 0.74. Yesterday we did see a fightback, but that was stopped by resistance and supply that remains around the .7450-.7480 area. Today’s rally was also stopped by this supply level and has started to develop into a trigger bar. If sellers can break minor support, we will continue to look for a continuation lower, maintaining the current downtrend. The big test if price makes a new push lower is the long-term uptrend. Will it stop sellers and start a new continuation point for buyers? This could be a critical crossroads for the longer-term picture, and we feel a lot will come down to the current situation with US inflation, their rates policy and demand for commodities. Covid continues to run rife in China, and if the situation continues, this could also have a knock-on effect on demand. First things first, sellers need to beat minor support to get the continuation going. AUDUSD D1 Chart The post Forex News: AUDUSD, are sellers setting up a new extension lower? appeared first on Eightcap.

The Commodities Feed: First US crude draw this year

Price Of Crude Oil (WTI) And Natural Gas (NGAS) Boosting US Dollar (USD) Which Jumps High

Alex Kuptsikevich 15.04.2022 09:57

Energy prices continue to fly into the stratosphere, adding 30% since the start of April, strengthening at twice the rate of March. The last time US gas was this expensive was in October 2008. Energy, oil, and gas have a very high price elasticity Demand for American gas has surged as Europe tries to cut back on purchases from Russia as much as possible. But this also puts the current commodity sharply in short supply. Energy, oil, and gas have a very high price elasticity, meaning that a supply or demand shift of just a couple of per cent leads to a much higher price change. Thus, the US provokes soaring prices on domestic markets by providing Europe with gas. Oil also receives a strong upward marches, not only as of the closest substitute but also as another Russian export that the world is in a hurry to abandon. Oil prices managed to stay in an uptrend WTI was back above $105, and Brent closed Thursday above $110, returning to levels of two weeks ago. Oil prices managed to stay in an uptrend, albeit this time as a slider amid accelerating gas prices. The performance of oil and gas prices is supported by US export figures, which is favourable for the Dollar. Notably, in contrast to the historical correlation, energy is rising with the Dollar, although more often than not, a rising dollar pressures energy. As one of the leading energy exporters, having strengthened its position, the states will economically have the most negligible impact on the economy compared with most developed countries that are net importers of oil and gas. Fed can raise interest rates more quickly Higher energy costs may not prevent the Dollar from moving somewhat up further but may strengthen it by giving the Fed carte blanche to tighten policy more forcefully. The Fed can raise interest rates more quickly, but it can also push them to higher levels without the risk of seriously hurting the economy.

Russia Look Set To Double Its Exports For The First Half Of 2023

Soft Commodities Speculators continue to boost their Sugar bullish bets to 20-week high

Invest Macro 16.04.2022 19:59

Metals Speculators reduce Platinum bets for 3rd week to 13-week low

Invest Macro 16.04.2022 20:02

Chart of the Week - Gold Miners vs Energy Producers

Callum Thomas 20.04.2022 22:05

Gold Miners Left Behind: This curious chart shows the total assets under management in US equity sector ETFs focused on energy (i.e. traditional energy: oil/gas/coal) and gold miners. AUM in energy ETFs has gone up more than 5x since the low point: part of this is clearly price-driven as surging energy prices have triggered better stock price performance and improved financial results. But clearly investors have also had a change of heart on the sector after shunning it for some time (particularly with the rise of ESG investing). To be fair, precious metal prices have been a big fat range trade for most of the past 2 years The standout though in this chart is the one that isn’t standing out: gold mining ETF AUM has by contrast been very sleepy. To be fair, precious metal prices have been a big fat range trade for most of the past 2 years, and at the end of the day when it comes to these commodity equity sectors, commodity prices matter.With gold itself on the cusp of a breakout, this chart begins to look very interesting, and we could easily see a stampede into gold miners if gold itself can manage to break through to new highs. Indeed, with the bull market in equities seemingly in its final throes this could end up appealing to the hoard of retail speculators still searching for their golden ticket… Key point: Gold miners have been left behind. NOTE: this post first appeared on our NEW Substack: https://topdowncharts.substack.com/Best regards, Callum Thomas Head of Research and Founder of Topdown Charts Follow us on: LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/topdown-charts Twitter http://www.twitter.com/topdowncharts

COT Soft Commodities Speculators raising bullish bets for Soybean Oil as prices hit record high

Invest Macro 23.04.2022 19:33

Eurozone PMI Shows Limited Improvement Amid Lingering Contraction Concerns in September

U.S bond Yields vs Gold Futures, Volatility In The Price Of Coffee, Brent Crude Price Falls

Rebecca Duthie 25.04.2022 16:22

Summary: Coffee futures prices are being affected by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Brent Crude Oil Prices falling despite ongoing uncertainties with the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Gold futures prices falling as the US bond yields change once again. Coffee futures prices showing volatility. The futures price for coffee has fallen 2.11% since the market opened this morning. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine war with no sign of slowing, has had an adverse effect on the price of coffee futures over the last while, this is represented in the graph below. There are concerns about growth and therefore supply with the Russia-Ukraine conflicts and in addition the poor rainfall in Brazil this year continues to raise concerns about supply, however the demand is also decreasing as a result of the conflicts. This relationship could be causing the volatility in this commodity. Coffee Jul ‘22 Futures Prices Is the Price of Brent Crude Oil Finally Falling? Since the market opened this morning, the price of Brent Crude Oil has fallen by almost 5%. The weakening of the price comes despite the Russia-Ukraine war uncertainties and the post-covid world economy reopening. Occasionally the price of Brent Crude is adversely affected as the US Dollar strengthens, seeing as the Fed increased the U.S yields again for the seventh consecutive week, the US dollar saw more strengthening on the market today, this could be a possible reason for the price fall in Brent Crude. Brent Crude Oil Price Chart Read next: (XAGUSD) Price of Silver Vs. U.S Yields, Lumber and Corn Futures Dependent on Demand and Supply Gold prices affected by US Yields once again. This time last week gold futures had hit their high for April, however since the market opened this morning, the price has fallen by 1.96%, and is 5% down from its 18 April high. Normally gold is used as a hedge against inflation, however since the US yields increased again, the opportunity cost of holding gold and not bonds increases, driving the price of gold down further. This commodity is one to watch especially if the Fed continues to be hawkish. Gold Futures Price Chart Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, ndtv.com Read Next: Unexpectedly Gold Price (XAUUSD) Falls, Canada And Chicago - Weather Makes Wheat Futures Fluctuate. The Price Of Palladium - Industrial Activity Is Taking Strain

US and European Equity Futures Mixed Amid Economic Concerns and Yield Surge

Palladium Price To Struggle In Recovery, Silver Prices (XAGUSD) Facing Downward Pressure

Rebecca Duthie 26.04.2022 11:30

Summary: Palladium and Silver prices are being affected by the hawkish Fed and the China lockdown. Could Wheat Futures prices be in recovery mode? Palladium price to struggle in recovery. The price of Palladium fell almost 13% by the end of the trading day on Monday. Since the market opened this morning, palladiums price has increased by almost 4%, rebounding as a result of concerns around reduced demand due to the lockdown in China. The recovery of Palladium looks fragile for the future and the escalating COVID-19 situation in China will put pressure on the recovery of this commodity. Palladium Jun 22 Futures Read next: U.S bond Yields vs Gold Futures, Volatility In The Price Of Coffee, Brent Crude Price Falls Silver prices are seeing consistent declines. Since the market opened this morning the price of Silver futures have slightly increased, however over the past week, the prices have been falling quite drastically. This drop in price comes hand-in-hand with the hawkish Fed and uncertainties around China and their COVID lockdowns. The recovery of Silver is uncertain amidst the current market uncertainty. Silver May 22 Futures Wheat Futures prices. Chicago Wheat Futures prices are up by almost 2% since market opening today. Despite the adverse weather conditions and the Russia-Ukraine conflict causing concerns around supply, the price of Wheat Futures has still seen a fall over the past week. Perhaps given the concerns in China we will see the price of Wheat Futures recover in the coming weeks. Chicago SRW Wheat Futures Jul 22 Read next: Carbon Net-Zero Goals Affecting the Prices of Platinum, Copper and Lithium Sources: Finance.yahoo.com

The Potential Impact of Inflation Trends on the AUD and RBA's Rate Decisions

Energy Crisis Coming? Natural Gas (NGAS) Price Has Spiked 110%!

Alex Kuptsikevich 26.04.2022 15:33

NYMEX Natural gas price has again surpassed $7 and may well have completed a corrective pullback from the February-April momentum and may soon be preparing to go to a multi-year high above $8.2. Natural Gas spiked 110% from the Feb lows of $3.9 to a peak on April 18th It spiked 110% from the Feb lows of $3.9 to a peak on April 18th, and its momentum is clearly in line with its Fibonacci retracement pattern touching 61.8% of the rally. Additionally, the bottom of the latest correction coincided with the previous price peak in October. In support of a bullish scenario for gas, its price showed a more than 7% jump on Monday This transformation of former strong resistance into support is frequent in the markets. In support of a bullish scenario for gas, its price showed a more than 7% jump on Monday, despite the decline in oil. There is a fundamental reason for this ability to resist gravity: Europe is still looking for alternatives to Russian gas, and the first alternative is gas from the USA. Against the bullish momentum in gas, as in other commodities, a wave of selloffs of risk assets and deleveraging could play out. Already we are seeing the first signs of this in more robust demand for the yen and falling Gold while stock indices are falling.

Platinum and Random Length Lumber Futures Prices Falling Whilst Corn Futures Are Showing Bullish Signals.

Rebecca Duthie 27.04.2022 08:47

Summary: Changes in investor sentiment is driving the price of Platinum down. Random Length Lumber Futures prices fall as supply increases amidst supply chain backlogs clearing. Corn prices increase as supply tightens and planting slows. Platinum Futures showing bearish signals. Over the past week Platinum futures have seen a steady decline in price. This decline in price comes with the concerns over China’s COVID lockdowns, and its possibility of causing a decrease in the demand for Platinum. Since the market opened this morning, the price of Platinum futures has increased by 0.14%. Earlier this year the price of metals spiked due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict but as time has gone on, the bullish signals that have come from the war have slowed, causing the price of some commodities to fall as a result of this change in market and investor sentiment. Platinum Jul 22 Futures Price Chart Read next: Palladium Price To Struggle In Recovery, Silver Prices (XAGUSD) Facing Downward Pressure Corn futures are recovering after dipping earlier this week. The price of corn futures have not seen any clear trend over the past week, the price increase on monday comes as a result of prospects of higher demand against lower production as well as the current supply chain issues. In addition, the dryness in Brazil, decreasing planting space in the U.S., the delay in China's planting due to lockdowns and two of the world's major corn exporters (Russia and the Ukraine) are in a war - these are all aspects that drive the price of corn up. However, since the market opened this morning we have seen the price of Corn Futures fall by almost 0.45%. Corn Futures Jul 22 Price Chart Random Length Lumber Futures The price of Random Length Lumber Futures has been showing a steady decline over the past days, this comes as demand decreases and supply increases. Supply chain issues regarding lumber have eased causing a temporary flood to the market, as well as favorable spring weather. In addition, the rising inflation caused a pause on the rising U.S housing market, again driving down the price of Lumber. Random Length Lumber Futures Price Chart Read next: U.S bond Yields vs Gold Futures, Volatility In The Price Of Coffee, Brent Crude Price Falls Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com, reuters.com

Oz Minerals’ Quarterly Copper Output Hit A Record High, Brent Futures Rose

Natural GAS (NGAS) and RBOB Gasoline’s (RB) May Futures Expected To Increase Further In 2022. Copper (HG) Prices Also Forecasted To Increase.

Rebecca Duthie 28.04.2022 09:13

Summary: Natural Gas and RBOB gasoline prices are expected to increase even more throughout 2022. Increasing energy prices raise concerns around the future of clean-energy. Increasing costs of metals are driving the price of renewable energy up. Natural Gas Futures prices are expected to increase further this year. Over the past week the price of Natural Gas has dipped and then recovered. Since the market opened this morning the price of this commodity has fallen by almost 2.6%. On Wednesday the World Bank released a statement indicating that they expected energy prices to increase by a further 50% throughout 2022 before easing in 2023 and 2024. The prices of most commodities are dependent on what happens with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has already shocked the commodity market by altering trading patterns, production and consumption. NGAS Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline prices are expected to increase in 2022. Since the market opened this morning, the price of RBOB Gasoline has fallen by almost 0.7% and has seen varied prices over the past week. Since RBOB Gasoline forms part of energy commodities, the price is expected to increase according to the World Bank's forecast above. The increase in energy prices has raised concerns that the transition to clean-energy will be delayed, as many countries have announced plans to increase their production of fossil fuels. RBOB Gasoline Futures Price Chart Copper Futures prices are expected to increase in 2022. According to the article of commodity markets outlook released by the World Bank, the price of metals are expected to increase almost 20% in 2022. Should the war between Russia and the Ukraine persist, price forecasts could change even more. The price of Copper will also be affected by the changing trade patterns being more expensive, in addition the higher metal prices are pushing up the cost of renewable energy in general. However, since the market opened this morning the price of copper has fallen by 0.83%, this has been the general price trend of the commodity over the past week, perhaps a result of investor sentiment and uncertainties around China's lockdowns. Copper Futures Price Chart Sources: worldbank.org, finance.yahoo.com

Trading Week Ahead – Indices, Forex, and Commodities

8 eightcap 29.04.2022 14:45

Watch Andrew Lockwood from ForexSignals.com, as kicks off May’s Trade Zone, with his first Trading Week Ahead Live. Join him as he takes a real-time look at the Indices, Forex, and Commodities markets, and gives you all his potential trade opportunities for the upcoming week. JOIN ANDREW THIS WEDNESDAY, FOR HIS FIRST LIVE MARKET UPDATE OF MAY… REGISTER NOW! Join us this coming Wednesday, at 7 PM AEST (10 AM BST), as Andrew looks back at Monday’s Trading Week Ahead Live, and analyses the development moves made in the markets since Monday’s forecast. Watch as Andrew looks ahead at all the potential trading opportunities available as the weekend approaches, and gives you his reasons for what lays ahead. Register Now If you want a session to summaries the levels you need to be watching? Then this is the perfect session for you, as the trading week draws to a close. At the end of the webinar, join the Trade Zone community, as Andrew Lockwood answers all your market and trade-related questions in an end-of-session live Q&A. So, if you have any questions relating to any of the pairs or commodities covered this week, please have them ready. Sit back, enjoy… And remember to trade safely! Remember to have any questions you may have, about any of the pairs or commodities covered this week The post Trading Week Ahead – Indices, Forex, and Commodities appeared first on Eightcap.

Gold (XAUUSD) Prices Fall As U.S Yields Rise, Wheat Prices Facing Pressure, Palladium Prices In Recovery! - Commodities Today.

Rebecca Duthie 02.05.2022 10:48

Summary: Gold versus U.S Yields. Palladium Prices showing signs of recovery. Wheat prices affected by Russia’s possible taxation of the commodity. Gold Futures Price Falls As the opportunity cost for holding rises. The price of gold has fallen amidst the Federal Reserve raising yields and therefore putting pressure on zero-yield bullion. The market is concerned at how big the next 2 interest rate hikes could be, the Fed are putting their best foot forward as they attempt to fight the increasing inflation and increasing labour costs. As the short term U.S interest yields increase, the opportunity cost for holding gold increases too, driving the price down with the falling demand. Gold Futures Price Chart Read next: Exxon and Chevron Earnings Announcements Has Little Effect on Brent Crude Oil Prices, Bullish Market Sentiment For Cotton and Gold Prices Rise Again Palladium prices are back on the rise. Over the past week the price of palladium has seen an overall positive price trend, this comes with the problems in supply chains around the world and the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia is one of the biggest producers and exporters in the world, with South Africa, Russia produces and exports around 70% of the world's palladium. The sanctions on Russia are putting a dent in supply, in addition, the lockdowns in China causing concerns around demand. Palladium Futures Price Chart Wheat prices facing pressure. Wheat Future prices down around 1% today. The price has been stable over the past week apart from the sharp drop on Sunday amidst concerns around Russia imposing taxes on its wheat exports between now and July 2022. There are concerns around demand and supply with Wheat due to the war in the Ukraine and concerns around supply chains. Wheat Futures Price Chart Read next: Natural GAS (NGAS) and RBOB Gasoline’s (RB) May Futures Expected To Increase Further In 2022. Copper (HG) Prices Also Forecasted To Increase. Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, agriculture.com

The Swing Overview – Week 17 2022

Purple Trading 03.05.2022 11:04

The Swing Overview – Week 17 Major stock indices continued in their correction and tested strong support levels. In contrast, the US dollar strengthened strongly and is at its highest level since January 2017. The strengthening of the dollar had a negative impact on the value of the euro and commodities such as gold, which fell below the $1,900 per ounce. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates low and the yen broke the magic level 130 per dollar. The USD index strengthened again but the US GDP declined The US consumer confidence in the month of April came in at 107.3, a slight decline from the previous month when consumer confidence was 107.6. The US GDP data was surprising. The US economy decreased by 1.4% in 1Q 2022 (in the previous quarter the economy grew by 6.4%). This sharp decline surprised even analysts who expected the economy to grow by 1.1%. This result is influenced by the Omicron, which caused the economy to shut down for a longer period than expected earlier this year. The Fed meeting scheduled for the next week on May 4 will be hot. In fact, even the most dovish Fed officials are already leaning towards a 0.5% rate hike. At the end of the year, we can expect a rate around 2.5%. The US 10-year bond yields continue to strengthen on the back of these expectations. The US dollar is also strengthening and is already at its highest level since January 2017, surpassing 103 level. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and the USD index on the daily chart Earnings season is underway in equities Earnings season is in full swing. Amazon's results were disappointing. While revenue was up 7% reaching $116.4 billion in the first quarter (revenue was $108.5 billion in the same period last year), the company posted an total loss of $8.1 billion, which translated to a loss of $7.56 per share. This loss, however, is not due to operating activities, but it is the result of the revaluation of the equity investment in Rivian Automotive. Facebook, on the other hand, surprised in a positive way posting unexpectedly strong user growth, a sign that its Instagram app is capable of competing with Tik Tok. However, the revenue growth of 6.6% was the lowest in the company's history. Apple was also a positive surprise, reporting earnings per share of $1.52 (analysts' forecast was $1.43) and revenue growth of $97.3 billion, up 8.6% from the same period last year. However, the company warned that the closed operations in Russia, the lockdown in China due to the coronavirus and supply disruptions will negatively impact earnings in the next quarter. Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart In terms of technical analysis, the US SP 500 index is in a downtrend and has reached a major support level on the daily chart last week, which is at 4,150. It has bounced upwards from this support to the resistance according to the 4 H chart which is 4,308 - 4,313. The next resistance according to the H4 chart is 4,360 - 4,365. The strong resistance is at 4,500. German DAX index German businessmen are optimistic about the development of the German economy in the next 6 months, as indicated by the Ifo Business Climate Index, which reached 91.8 for April (the expectation was 89.1). However, this did not have a significant effect on the movement of the index and it continued in its downward correction. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The index is below the SMA 100 on both the daily chart and the H4 chart, confirming the bearish sentiment. The nearest support according to the H4 is 13,600 - 13,650. The resistance is 14,180 - 14,200. The next resistance is 14,592 - 14,632. The euro has fallen below 1.05 The euro lost significantly last week. While the French election brought relief to the markets as Emmanuel Macron defended the presidency, geopolitical tensions in Ukraine continue to weigh heavily on the European currency. The strong dollar is also having an impact on the EUR/USD pair, pushing the pair down. The price has fallen below 1.05, the lowest level since January 2017. Figure 4: EURUSD on H4 and daily chart The euro broke through the important support at 1.0650 - 1.071, which has now become the new resistance. The new support was formed in January 2017 and is around the level 1.0350 - 1.040. Japan's central bank continues to support the fragile economy The Bank of Japan on Thursday reinforced its commitment to keep interest rates at very low levels by pledging to buy unlimited amounts of 10-year government bonds daily, sparking a fresh sell-off in the yen and reviving government bonds. With this commitment, the BOJ is trying to support a fragile economy, even as a surge in commodity prices is pushing the inflation up. The decision puts Japan in the opposite position to other major economies, which are moving towards tighter monetary policy to combat soaring prices. Figure 5: The USD/JPY on the monthly and daily chart In fresh quarterly forecasts, the central bank has projected core consumer inflation to reach 1.9% in the current fiscal year and then ease to 1.1% in fiscal years 2023 and 2024, an indication that it views the current cost-push price increases as transitory. In the wake of this decision, the Japanese yen has continued to weaken and has already surpassed the magical level 130 per dollar. Strong dollar beats also gold Anticipation of aggressive Fed action against inflation, which is supporting the US dollar, is having a negative impact on gold. The rising US government bond yields are also a problem for the yellow metal. This has put gold under pressure, which peaked on Thursday when the price reached USD 1,872 per ounce of gold. But then the gold started to strengthen. Indeed, the decline in the US GDP may have been something of a warning to the Fed and prevent them from tightening the economy too quickly, which helped gold, in the short term, bounce off a strong support. Figure 6: The gold on H4 and daily chart Strong support for the gold is at $1,869 - $1,878 per ounce. There is a confluence of horizontal resistance and the SMA 100 moving average on the daily chart. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is 1 907 - 1 910 USD per ounce. The strong resistance according to the daily chart is then 1 977 - 2 000 USD per ounce of gold. Moving averages on the H4 chart can also be used as a resistance. The orange line is the EMA 50 and the blue line is the SMA 100.

Russia's Active Production Cuts Could Be Grounds For A Bullish Shock

Brent Crude Oil Price Continues To Dive, Silver Struggling To Hold Its Price Position & Corn Prices Soaring.

Rebecca Duthie 03.05.2022 14:58

Summary: Brent crude oil faces production problems around the world. Silver prices have been driven down by the US Dollar rally. Corn Futures are expected to remain elevated. Brent Crude Oil prices heavily affected by China's lockdowns. Over the past week we have seen the price of Brent Crude Oil fell amidst the lockdowns in China. The effect the lockdowns have had on the macro economy have been big, this price fall comes despite the warnings of production problems. There is currently a production problem with crude oil worldwide. April saw Russia’s production fall by almost 1 million barrels. The problems in the supply chains, the war and the lockdowns in China are all causing huge market volatility. Brent Crude Oil Price Chart Read next: Gold (XAUUSD) Prices Fall As U.S Yields Rise, Wheat Prices Facing Pressure, Palladium Prices In Recovery! - Commodities Today. Silver Prices struggling to fight against the current US Dollar rally. After seeing a dip in price on Monday, the price of silver futures seem to be somewhat recovering. One of the dominant drivers of the silver price is investor demand, seeing as it is considered a safe-haven asset that is mainly used by manufacturers of goods. The US Dollar continued to rally this past week, which is increasing the opportunity cost of holding silver, driving demand and prices down. Silver Futures Price Chart Corn Future Prices expected to stay elevated. The price of corn futures saw large increases earlier this week, this comes as a result of the poor harvest in Latin America for this season, and war in the Ukraine putting pressure on supply chains and supply. Corn is up by 37% year-to-date. The prices are expected to stay elevated for some time to come. Corn Futures Price Chart Read next: Exxon and Chevron Earnings Announcements Has Little Effect on Brent Crude Oil Prices, Bullish Market Sentiment For Cotton and Gold Prices Rise Again Sources: finance.yahoo.com

Chile's Lithium Nationalization and the Global Trend of Resource Nationalism: Implications for EV Supply Chains and Efforts to Strengthen Battery Metal Supply

Cotton Prices Reach Highest Prices In Almost 11 Years, Copper Prices Facing Negative Outlook and EU Announces 6 Month Plan To Phase Out Russian Crude Oil Imports.

Rebecca Duthie 04.05.2022 12:40

Summary: The factors affecting the cotton price. The price of copper has been affected largely by the current market environment. EU to cut off Russian energy demand. Read next:Brent Crude Oil Price Continues To Dive, Silver Struggling To Hold Its Price Position & Corn Prices Soaring. The Cotton supply is under pressure, driving prices upwards Over the past week, cotton prices have seen a surge in prices. The futures for this commodity reached their highest prices since 2011. The price surge is related mainly to adverse weather conditions, droughts in the U.S. being a major factor. The lockdown in China has not decreased demand from the U.S. to China. The demand for cotton has also been impacted by rising energy prices as the price of materials derived from oil has risen. Jul ‘22 Cotton Futures Price Chart Copper prices continue to fall amidst market conditions Copper has lost major ground on the commodity market in the past week, this comes as a result of the extended lockdowns in China, the interest rate hike announcements and a continually strengthening US Dollar. On Monday Copper closed at close to neutral for the first time since May 2020. The continuing adverse market conditions will continue to cause Copper prices to struggle. Jul ‘22 Copper Futures Price Chart Natural Gas Prices Soar The price of Natural Gas has rallied over the past week. On Wednesday the EU announced their plans to phase out importing Russian Crude Oil and other energy imports within 6 months. The Natural Gas Prices are soaring amidst fears that it will be difficult to replace the Russian supply effectively. Jun ‘22 Natural Gas Price Chart Read next: Gold (XAUUSD) Prices Fall As U.S Yields Rise, Wheat Prices Facing Pressure, Palladium Prices In Recovery! - Commodities Today. Sources: finance.yahoo.com

Soybean Prices Reached Almost Record Prices, Platinum Investors Turning To New Suppliers, Copper Prices Struggling To Recover.

Rebecca Duthie 05.05.2022 14:01

Summary: Soybean prices continue to show volatility as concerns around supply continue. Platinum prices are still trying to find a pattern. Copper demand drops with China in lockdown. Read next: Cotton Prices Reach Highest Prices In Almost 11 Years, Copper Prices Facing Negative Outlook and EU Announces 6 Month Plan To Phase Out Russian Crude Oil Imports. Soybean prices have been soaring the past month. Over the past month we have seen the price of soybean futures rise to almost record highs. The Soybean commodity is under price pressure as a secondary backlash from the war between Russia and the Ukraine along with adverse weather conditions in Latin America and supply chain issues around the world. Since the start of the pandemic, the price of Soybean futures have doubled. There is a strong demand for soybean in the form of oil and feed for cattle all over the world, with Latin America being one of the worlds largest suppliers and is experiencing a poor harvest due to the poor weather conditions, the concerns around supply are growing, causing the prices to rise. Soybean Jul ‘22 Price Chart Platinum prices affected by lockdowns in China. Platinum prices dipped in the previous trading week as a result of concerns around demand with the lockdowns in China. Since then the prices have been on the rise again as the market seems to be somewhat stabilising. As economic sanctions on Russia continue, importers are turning to new sources of Platinum such as South Africa, concerns around supply remain the main factor driving the price of platinum. Platinum Jul ‘22 Price Chart Copper price dip amidst lockdown in China. Since China imposed further lockdowns in the country, the concerns around demand and supply faded for the metals futures. This created a fall in the price as the decreasing demand could take some pressure off some of the supply chain issues. China is responsible for almost half of the world's copper consumption, therefore the lockdowns had a big impact on the price of this precious metal. Copper Jul ‘22 Futures Read next: Brent Crude Oil Price Continues To Dive, Silver Struggling To Hold Its Price Position & Corn Prices Soaring. Sources: finance.yahoo.com, capital.com, wsj.com

(XAUUSD) Gold, Coffee and Crude Oil - Commodities Facing Price Trouble Over the Past Month

Rebecca Duthie 06.05.2022 12:28

Summary: In general most commodities apart from crude oil have seen a fall over the past month. Crude Oil Supply facing huge pressure. Read next: Soybean Prices Reached Almost Record Prices, Platinum Investors Turning To New Suppliers, Copper Prices Struggling To Recover. Coffee Futures Price Falling Over the past month the price of coffee futures have been falling consistently. The harvest at the world's largest producer in Brazil has been picking up as more fields are becoming ready to harvest. The harvest pushes supply into the market, driving the price down. However, coffee prices are still higher than those seen in 2021. Coffee Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold futures fare well today despite falling over the past month. Despite the increase in the price of gold since the market opened this morning, the price has been falling over the past month. The hawkish Fed increasing the U.S yields week-over-week has resulted in a negative outlook overall for the price of Gold. Gold is seen as a safe-haven asset and is used as a hedge against inflation, when the Fed pushes up the yields, the opportunity cost of holding Gold increases, driving investors to sell their Gold investment and instead turn to government bonds. This drives the price of gold down. In the past days gold has fared well against the Feds recent yield raise and has seen an increase of almost 0.4%. Gold Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Crude Oil prices continue to increase. The price of crude oil futures have been showing a steady upward trend. As global stockpiles of crude decrease, the concerns around demand have become more worrisome. Crude prices are surging as supply falls and demand is starting to increase back to pre-pandemic levels. Washington released a large number of their crude oil reserves in an attempt to control the price, however, the price continues to rise and will likely continue on this path. Crude oil Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: Cotton Prices Reach Highest Prices In Almost 11 Years, Copper Prices Facing Negative Outlook and EU Announces 6 Month Plan To Phase Out Russian Crude Oil Imports Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com

Trade Zone Week Ahead: Indices, Forex, and Commodities Real-Time Insight, with Andrew Lockwood

8 eightcap 06.05.2022 12:43

Join Andrew Lockwood from ForexSignals.com, for Monday’s Trading Week Ahead Live, as he takes you through his markets to monitor for the upcoming week. Watch as he analyses the Indices, Forex, and Commodities markets, and shares his potential trade opportunities for the week. JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE! Do you want to continue monitoring the markets reviewed in Monday’s Trading Week Ahead Live? Then Join us this coming Wednesday, at 7 PM AEST (10 AM BST), as Andrew continues his analysis from Monday. Watch him as he looks back at moves and developments made since Monday, and shares where he foresees the market heading as we approach the weekend. Register Now This is the perfect opportunity to help you summaries the levels you’re watching and understand the movements being made. As usual, at the end of the session, there will be a live Q&A, for you and the rest of the Trade Zone community to ask Andrew Lockwood all your market and trade-related questions. So if you are not sure about the reasons behind a market movement, or you would like to know more about any of the pairs or commodities covered this week? This is the place to come to get the answers you need. So join us and enjoy… And as always remember to trade safely! The post Trade Zone Week Ahead: Indices, Forex, and Commodities Real-Time Insight, with Andrew Lockwood appeared first on Eightcap.

OPEC+ Are Expected To Keeping Oil Production Unchanged, AUD/USD Trades At Its Highest Levels

Prices Of Brent Crude Oil And Silver Fall As The US Dollar Strengthening, Corn Prices Face Downward Price Pressure.

Rebecca Duthie 09.05.2022 15:35

Summary: Brent crude oil prices are seeing some decline. Silver prices face downward pressure amidst the US Dollar Strengthening. Corn prices fall amidst worries about falling demand. Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold, Coffee and Crude Oil - Commodities Facing Price Trouble Over the Past Month Brent crude oil price falls. The price of oil has fallen on Monday amidst concerns around the strengthening US Dollar which hit a two-decade high, making holding oil more expensive for other currencies. The lockdowns in China have raised concerns around the demand for oil from the world's biggest importer. In addition the world's biggest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, lowered the prices of crude for Europe and Asia in June. All of these factors have resulted in the price of Brent Crude Oil falling. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Read next: What Is (DYDX)? dYdX Cryptocurrency Supporting Perpetual Trading - Altcoins of Interest | FXMAG.COM As US yields increase, silver's value falls. The price of silver has been falling over the past week. The price fall comes as the Fed continues with their hawkish attitude. Silver is used as a hedge against inflation, with the Fed increasing the US yields in an attempt to fight inflation, the opportunity cost for holding silver increases. Investors are selling their silver and turning to investments where they can yield a higher return at the same level of risk i.e. US treasury bonds. Silver Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn prices facing downward price pressure. On monday the price of Corn futures had fallen by almost 1%, there has been a downward price trend for corn futures over the past week. There are still concerns around the lack of supply for corn all over the world, however, with the lockdowns in China, concerns around falling demand have risen. Last week the amount of traders who shorted corn outweighed those who chose to go long, indicating they expected the price to drop. Corn Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: Soybean Prices Reached Almost Record Prices, Platinum Investors Turning To New Suppliers, Copper Prices Struggling To Recover. Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, cnbc.com, reuters.com, barchart.com

(XAUUSD) Gold Prices Remain Stable Despite Hawkish Fed, EU Regains Control Of Their NGAS Supplies, Cotton Futures Prices.

Rebecca Duthie 10.05.2022 13:13

Summary: The EU refills their NGAS stockpiles, driving the price of NGAS Futures down. Cotton Prices falling despite concerns around supply. Gold Prices remain surprisingly stable despite interest rate hikes Read next: Prices Of Brent Crude Oil And Silver Fall As The US Dollar Strengthening, Corn Prices Face Downward Price Pressure. Natural Gas Futures Prices Drop Towards the end of last week the price of Natural Gas soared, however tumbled around 13% during the trading day on Monday as a change in output and expected demand occurred as a result of the changing weather forecast. In addition the EU gas pipes were reported to be filling as gas piles into the pipes from Russian Sources which caused EU prices to stabilise. The change in the price is likely to continue in the short term thanks to the fundamental factors mentioned above, however with the EU’s recent oil embargo, whether or not this downward trend will continue is unlikely. It is also important to note that the stock market experienced a sour trading day on monday, causing prices across all markets to fall. NGAS Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton futures tank. Cotton futures saw a price dip during last week's trading week and earlier this week, however, prices seemed to have gained slightly on Tuesday. The price fall on Monday followed the trend of the wider global market which experienced a sour trading day on Monday. Prices are still soaring at high levels, due to the concerns around supply without wavering demand, and the possibility of an export ban by India is causing unrest around the commodity. Cotton Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Gold Futures remaining surprisingly stable (XAUUSD) Along with the rest of the global market, the price of gold dropped during the trading day on Monday. In addition the price of gold has been declining over the past days, this comes as the Fed grows more hawkish in their fight against inflation. The decline is not as sharp as market participants expected, this could be because investors are hedging their bets as the market awaits the U.S CPI report due on Wednesday. XAUUSD Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold, Coffee and Crude Oil - Commodities Facing Price Trouble Over the Past Month Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, asia.nikkei.com

Don't Worry Coffee Lovers! The Price Of Coffee Futures Falling Amidst Current Market Conditions, Crude Oil (WTI) Recovers Slightly, Palladium Prices Show Steady Downward Price Trend

Rebecca Duthie 11.05.2022 14:56

Summary: Coffee futures are struggling to remain stable amidst the current market conditions. Crude oil prices could rise after poor performance this past week. Increased import tariffs on Russian Palladium to the U.K should drive the price up. Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold Prices Remain Stable Despite Hawkish Fed, EU Regains Control Of Their NGAS Supplies, Cotton Futures Prices. Weather relief in major producing regions drives the price of coffee futures down. Coffee futures have been falling over the past week or so. The price fall comes as a result of the strengthening US Dollar and weakening Brazilian real is pushing prices down, the relief of dry weather conditions is also a bearish signal for coffee futures prices. The demand for coffee is also under pressure with the lockdowns in China continuing, and the war between Russia and the Ukraine causing demand in these two regions to fall. The market has been in a slump this week which could be another reason for the price to fall. There are still concerns around supply of coffee worldwide, a possible cause of the almost 3% increase the future has seen today. Coffee Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Crude Oil WTI increases today after poor performance within the past week The price of Crude Oil Futures have been following the market trend this past week, dropping to below $100. The rise today comes as concerns around supply in the wake of the European Union Oil embargo on Russia increase. Oil producers warned of their concerns around not being able to fill the oil gap when demand returns back to normal levels. WTI Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Palladium prices show steady downward price trend Palladium prices are falling with the current market sentiment, the prices rebounded slightly after the U.K announced the increase in the tariff on Palladium imports from Russia. This move will cause further Palladium supply issues, however, the price is still falling. Palladium Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: Prices Of Brent Crude Oil And Silver Fall As The US Dollar Strengthening, Corn Prices Face Downward Price Pressure. Sources: finance.yahoo.com, barchart.com

The Commodity Market Felt The Effect Of The Poor Market Conditions This Week - Wheat Futures, Platinum Futures & RBOB Gasoline Futures

Rebecca Duthie 12.05.2022 12:34

Summary: The future of the Wheat futures prices depend on the supply available as adverse weather conditions and geopolitical tensions continue. As embargos on Russia intensify, Platinum futures prices rise. Read next: Don't Worry Coffee Lovers! The Price Of Coffee Futures Falling Amidst Current Market Conditions, Crude Oil (WTI) Recovers Slightly, Palladium Prices Show Steady Downward Price Trend Wheat Futures On Monday the price of Chicago Wheat Futures dropped, this came in the wake of the poor performance of the global markets. Since Monday the price of wheat futures have been recovering steadily. There are concerns around the market supply of wheat going forward, with Russia and The Ukraine exports decreasing due to the war, and the possibility of India reducing their exports amidst the heatwave causing their production to reduce. As concerns around supply and demand and weather conditions continue, we are likely to see volatility in the price of Wheat Futures. SRW Wheat Futures Jul ‘22 Price Chart Platinum prices rise amidst concerns over supply. Platinum futures prices seem to be recovering after hitting their one-week low on May 9th. The recovery comes as worries around Russian supply are renewed. The U.K announced GBP1.4 billion worth of import restrictions from Russia and a 35% increase in import tariffs on multiple products, including platinum. Hence, pushing prices up. Platinum Jul ‘22 Futures RBOB Gasoline prices The price of RBOB gasoline futures, along with wheat futures and platinum futures have felt the effects of the poor market conditions this week. However, the price of RBOB gasoline is likely to continue to show bullish signals going forward, this will come as a result of the increasing concerns around supply. RBOB Gasoline Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold Prices Remain Stable Despite Hawkish Fed, EU Regains Control Of Their NGAS Supplies, Cotton Futures Prices. Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets mostly cool off this week

Invest Macro 15.05.2022 14:46

Global Steel Production Declines, Copper Market in Surplus, Nickel Inventories Increase

COT: Copper short doubles in week of broad fund selling | Saxo Bank

Ole Hansen 16.05.2022 13:44

Summary: Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex up until last Tuesday, May 10. A week that saw continued risk off as the combination of high rates and potential recession as inflation surges kept stocks under pressure while lifting bond yields and the dollar. Commodities hurt by the prospect for lower growth, most critically in China, saw broad selling with funds cutting their exposure to a 21 month low. Focus on copper with funds doubling their short position ahead of a potential easing of lockdowns in China Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial. Link to latest report This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities and forex up until last Tuesday, May 10. A week where a continued sell off in global stocks pushed the S&P 500 below 4,000 for the first time in more than a year while US bond yields climbed to a fresh cycle high. Financial markets have become increasingly challenged by a combination of high rates and a potential recession as inflation surges. In addition the wind has come out of the commodity bull market with China, a major consumer, paying an increasingly high price for its Covid Zero Policy. Adding to this continued dollar strength, and most asset classes from bonds and stocks to cryptos and commodities remain under pressure, and speculators in commodities and forex have adjusting their positions accordingly. Commodities The Bloomberg Commodity Spot index dropped 3.1% on the week with losses in energy (-4%), industrial metals (-6.1%), precious metals (-2.5%) and softs (-3.7%) while grains managed a small plus led by wheat. Overall hedge funds and money managers responded to these changes by cutting bullish bets across the 24 major futures tracked in this by 9% to a 21 month low at 1.68 million lots, a 25% reduction since the recent peak in late February. Twenty out of 24 commodity futures tracked in this update traded lower on the week with eighteen of those seeing positions being reduced with four commodities seeing position levels drop to the lowest in at least a year. Latest updates on crude oil, gold and wheat can be found in our daily Quick Take here Energy: Crude oil continued rangebound trading behavior triggered a small amount of net selling of WTI and Brent. The combined long at 410k lots remains near a cycle low with the current price action being high on uncertainty and low on trading signals. The product space was mixed with gas oil and gasoline seeing net reductions while the net long in NY Diesel rose by 20%.Metals: The exodus out of metals, both precious and industrial continued, and the combined long at just 49k lots across the five futures contract tracked, was the lowest in almost three years. Gold, still holding above its 200-day moving average last Tuesday saw its net long reduced for a fourth week to a three-month low at 73.9k lots with most of the 9k reduction being driven by long liquidation, and not fresh short selling. In silver speculators held a neutral position following an 89% slump in the net long to just 1.7k lots, with the bulk of the reduction being by short sellers looking for an even deeper slump.In copper, the net short doubled to a two-year high at 17.7k lots as the price drop extended towards key support at $4/lb. China lockdowns have been the main catalyst behind the recent 25% decline in the Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index. It highlights the potential risk of a price reversal once lockdowns start to ease, a bounce that may now receive some additional momentum from the hedge funds covering some of their short position.Agriculture: The whole sector, except wheat, got caught up in the strong dollar risk off move with the biggest reductions seen in soybeans, sugar, corn and cocoa. In grains, the net long across the six futures contract tracked in this was reduced for a third week, this after reaching a 12-year high last month. Surging wheat prices only managed to attract a small amount of buying, and despite an overriding bullish outlook due to global weather woes and Ukraine war, the net long in Chicago and Kansas wheat remains muted at 58k lots.ForexContinued broad dollar strength drove a 5% increase in the gross dollar long against ten IMM futures and the Dollar Index. However, the muted $1.2 billion increase to $22.8 billion, a four- month high, was caused by speculators (wrongly as it turned out) trying to buy EURUSD ahead of €1.05 support. This action triggered 22.9k lots or $3 billion equivalent of euro buying which helped flip the position back to a net long, just days before the break below force fresh long liquidation.What is the Commitments of Traders report? The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class. Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and otherFinancials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and otherForex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators) The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are: They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

Central Banks' Rates Outlook: Fed Treads Cautiously, ECB Prepares for Hike

(XAUUD) Gold Regains Investor Interest As The Dollar Weakens, NGAS Prices Going Up, Cotton Price Rising Along With Concerns Around Supply

Rebecca Duthie 17.05.2022 12:11

Summary: A weakening US Dollar driving the price of gold up. NGAS prices are in recovery mode. Cotton prices rise. Read next: Commodities Prices Recovering After Poor Performance Early Last Week - Brent Crude Oil Prices, Silver Prices Fall As Investors Shy Away From Precious Metals & Corn Gold (XAUUD) Gold gained on Tuesday after experiencing a consistent price fall during the trading week last week. The recovery in gold comes with the softening dollar. The weaker dollar makes gold more attractive to investors who are holding other currencies as it is considered a safe haven asset and a hedge against inflation. Gold Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart NGAS Price back on the rise. Natural Gas prices are back on the rise. Investors are going long on NGAS futures as more Russian Oil disappears from the market, causing concerns around supply to intensify. As China prepares to ease lockdown restrictions, it is likely the world will see even more of a supply shock as the demand will increase with the reopening of the Chinese markets. NGAS Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton Prices rise along with concerns around supply. Cotton prices have been rising during the trading week, this is because of a possible increase in demand as China prepares to ease lockdown restrictions running in conjunction with concerns around supply. The U.S are expecting lower than normal production this year due to the adverse weather conditions. Cotton Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold Struggles To Keep Up With The Strengthening US Dollar, Concerns Around Demand For Crude Oil, Concerns Around Copper Supply May Ease Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com

Drivers Don't Want To Pay More For Petrol. Crude Oil Price: the latest upward momentum? | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich 17.05.2022 12:17

Crude oil has added 15% since last Wednesday, rising to $112/bbl WTI and $113/bbl Brent. Both grades reached new two-month highs on Tuesday morning, despite a decidedly bearish news backdrop. Since early April, WTI has seen a sequence of higher highs and higher lows A sharper than previously estimated slowdown in China and not yet agreed package with Russian Crude oil phased embargo was met with buying in Crude, despite those suggesting lower demand and higher supply. Since early April, WTI has seen a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Oil’s dip under the uptrend line last week only encouraged buyers, kick-starting the latest upward momentum. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM This is the third time Brent has reached that horizon, from which it has rolled back in April and early May. A consolidation above $114 could signal a new buying wave and quickly take prices to the $120 area - near the late March peaks. It should not be surprising if WTI becomes more expensive than the heavier Brent in a few weeks In this case, the North Sea Brent lags behind the US WTI as the supply-demand balance favours the latter. It should not be surprising if WTI becomes more expensive than the heavier Brent in a few weeks, restoring the historic balance broken by tight OPEC+ quotas and once rampant US production. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Nevertheless, be prepared that the oil rally that started from lows in April 2020, culminating in the war events in Ukraine, is coming to an end. The global economy and energy consumption are slowing to recover while the cartel continues to raise quotas. Temporarily, due to lower investment in production in previous quarters, OPEC has not kept pace with production increases. Still, this balance will change sooner rather than later, promising to keep the price from rising.

European Construction Markets: A Look at Poland, France, and Turkey's Prospects

The Commodities Feed: US gasoline tightness | ING Economics

ING Economics 18.05.2022 07:45

Your daily roundup of commodities news and ING views Learn more on ING Economics Energy The oil market has seen a partial recovery in early morning trading today, after Brent settled more than 2% lower yesterday. Reports that the US is looking to ease some sanctions against Venezuela contributed to yesterday’s weakness, with it thought that the easing could see a partial resumption of Venezuelan oil to Europe. Any increase is likely to be rather limited, at least in the short term. There are growing concerns over the refined products market. What started out as a tight middle distillate market appears to be spreading into the gasoline market, at least for the US. At a time when US gasoline inventories should be building ahead of the driving season, inventories instead have declined for most of this year. These are now below the low end of the 5-year range. Gasoline demand should only increase over the coming months and, in the absence of a pick up in refinery runs, the gasoline market is likely to continue to tighten. The tighter gasoline market appears to have also contributed to a narrowing in the WTI/Brent discount, given the need for higher US refinery runs, which should be supportive for US crude demand. Gasoline stocks in the ARA region of Europe are more comfortable, and are at least at a decade high for this time of the year. Given the tightness on the US East Coast and more comfortable European stock levels, we would expect to see a pick-up in European gasoline flows to the US East Coast in order to help alleviate some of this tightness. API numbers released overnight confirm the tightening in the market. US crude oil inventories are reported to have fallen by 2.4MMbbls, whilst stock levels at Cushing, the WTI delivery hub, fell by 3.1MMbbls. It was the gasoline market which saw the largest decline, with stocks falling by 5.1MMbbls over the last week. EIA numbers will be released later today. The EU carbon market saw some strength yesterday, with the market breaking above EUR91/t. The European Parliament’s Environmental Committee voted yesterday on reforms to the EU ETS. The committee agreed on the need for more aggressive carbon emission reduction targets. The committee would like to see emissions covered by the ETS fall by 67% by 2030 from 2005 levels, this compares to the initial proposal for a 61% reduction. In order to achieve this, the committee has recommended that the amount of emission allowances should be reduced by 4.2% in the first year the reform starts, and then this reduction should increase by 0.1% each year through until 2030. The committee also wants to see the phasing out of free allowances between 2026 and 2030, and the full implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) by 2030, which would be 5 years earlier than currently proposed. In addition, the Environmental Committee wants to phase out free allocations for the aviation sector by 2025, which would be 2 years earlier than the Commission had proposed. The proposal will also see maritime transport included in the ETS from 2024, which would cover 100% of intra-EU routes, and 50% of emissions from extra-EU routes coming in and out of the EU initially. Finally, the committee also agreed on the implementation of another emission trading system for commercial buildings and transport, which would start in 2025, whilst private buildings and transportation will be excluded from this new ETS until at least 2029. This latest proposal will be put to a vote in parliament next month, after which negotiations between member states will likely start. Metals Latest reports that Shanghai might start relaxing its two-month lockdown after three days of zero community transmission, along with better-than-expected retail sales and consumer spending data from the US, were constructive for risk assets yesterday. Most base metals settled higher on the day, with LME aluminium closing more than 2% up. Shrinking LME inventories have provided some support to aluminium. The latest LME data shows that on-warrant inventories for the metal fell for an eighth consecutive day to a new record low of 230kt yesterday. Turning to steel, and China Iron & Steel Association (CISA) said that China will keep its restrictions on new steel capacity intact and would push for more mergers and acquisitions within the industry. Due to ongoing Covid-related restrictions, steel demand has remained under pressure recently, but this should improve as the Covid situation improves. Mysteel expects China’s steel demand over 2H22 to rise by 10% compared to 1H22, whilst YoY growth is expected to hit 15% in 2H22. This growth is expected to be supported by local government policies. Agriculture CBOT wheat continued to trade firm yesterday, even after India relaxed its stance with its recently announced export ban on wheat. New directives from the Indian government indicate that the restrictions will not apply to wheat shipments that have already been handed over to the customs department for clearance and loadings. However, the export restrictions will still apply to wheat sales where the shipments are not yet finalised through the issuance of irrevocable LoC. Reuters reported that only around 400kt of wheat (out of around 2.2mt of wheat currently at ports) would be eligible for relief and likely to be exported. The relaxation is unlikely to provide much relief to the global market. TagsWheat Oil Metals Gasoline EU carbon Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Podcast: BoJ losing control. Geopolitical risks for Tesla

Fed hawks may not let the equity rally extend! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Swissquote Bank 18.05.2022 10:58

The US equity markets rallied yesterday after taking over a positive session from the Europeans. However, the US retail sales data didn’t necessarily hint at slowing spending, and Jerome Powell didn’t say things that investors would normally like to hear. Powell’s words didn’t hit the investor appetite immediate, but mixed activity in US futures hint that appetite may not remain as strong in the coming sessions. In the FX, the US dollar eased from two-decade highs. Gold trades around the $1800 mark and crude oil bumps into solid topsellers approaching above the $115pb The EURUSD rebounded past the 1.05 and Cable traded past 1.24. Yet, prospects of higher US rates, and the positive divergence between the Fed and other central banks should prevent the dollar from falling significantly. Eurozone’s final inflation data is due today, and should confirm a rise to 7.5% in April, an eye-watering number which should keep the European Central Bank (ECB) hawks and the euro bulls alert, and help the single currency consolidate its latest gains against the US dollar. Gold trades around the $1800 mark and crude oil bumps into solid topsellers approaching above the $115pb. On the earnings front, the US retailers reveal mixed earnings but they all agree on one thing: inflation impacts activity. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:22 Market update 2:06 Jerome Powell is decided to bring inflation down! 2:48 High EZ inflation to keep euro bulls alert 3:41 ...but the dollar may not ease much! 4:42 Gold under the pressure on rising rates 5:31 Crude oil bumps into topsellers past $115pb 6:47 US retailers reveal mixed results, but agree that inflation is an issue Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.

Securing Battery Metal Supply Chains: Challenges and Opportunities Amid the Global Energy Transition

More Expensive Coffee!? Weather Conditions In South America Can Limit Crops. (WTI) Crude Oil Price Recovering, Palladium Prices Rise Amidst Concerns Around Supply

Rebecca Duthie 18.05.2022 12:35

Summary: With China likely to ease lockdowns and the Russian oil embargo, WTI Crude prices are rising. Coffee futures prices are rising again amidst concerns around supply. Concerns around supply heighten for Palladium. WTI Crude Oil recovering WTI Crude Oil futures have been recovering this week after the poor market performance last week. Going forward, it is likely that the market will see oil prices go up, therefore raising gas prices as well. Despite the lockdowns in China suppressing oil demand, the possibility of the lockdowns being lifted the market will see the demand rise. The Russian oil embargo is likely to get tighter, which is heightening investors' concerns around the supply of oil, which is also pushing up the price. U.S President Joe Biden's attempt at reducing prices through releasing some of the U.S Crude Reserves into the market has not made a very noticeable impact so far, the release is expected to last until November. WTI Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Read next: (XAUUD) Gold Regains Investor Interest As The Dollar Weakens, NGAS Prices Going Up, Cotton Price Rising Along With Concerns Around Supply Coffee futures recovering amidst supply concerns Coffee futures prices are recovering in the wake of the poor market performance of last week. The prices are rising again over concerns around weather conditions in South America as the coffee farmers in Brazil are expecting frost in the coming days. The adverse weather conditions could affect the coffee crop and lead to a poor harvest in the future. There are also expectations on smaller supplies from Columbia. With concerns around coffee supplies across the board, the price of futures is rising. Coffee Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Concerns around Palladium supply are pushing up the futures prices Palladium futures rose above $2000, it is possible that the market could continue to see this growth as the reduced supply from Russia continues and a deficit supply from South African suppliers heighten concerns. South African producers are facing operational challenges, causing their output to decrease. Palladium Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: Commodities Prices Recovering After Poor Performance Early Last Week - Brent Crude Oil Prices, Silver Prices Fall As Investors Shy Away From Precious Metals & Corn Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com

Oil falls on Venezuala and EU, gold dips | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley 18.05.2022 15:30

Venezuela/Europe send oil lower Overnight, oil prices touched multi-week highs until the US announced it was starting a process, potentially leading to an easing of sanctions on Venezuela. That immediately saw oil reverse all its impressive intraday gains and both Brent crude and WTI finished slightly lower on the day. The EU effectively allowing European importers to pay for Russian gas via roubles should take the edge off European gas prices and flow through to oil prices. Brent crude finished 1.05% lower at USD 112.70 a barrel, having tested USD 116.00 intraday. WTI, by contrast, finished just 0.10% lower at USD 113.60 a barrel, having also tested USD 116.00 intraday. Prices are unmoved in Asia. Tight API inventory data and soaring diesel prices in the US have combined to send WTI to a premium over Brent and is likely to limit the downside for both contracts, Venezuela, or not. Tonight’s official crude inventory data dump will now be closely watched, and sharp falls in gasoline and distillates inventories could increase the WTI premium over Brent crude. Brent crude has resistance at USD 116.00 and support at USD 111.50 a barrel. WTI has taken resistance at USD 116.00 a barrel as well, with support at USD 111.50. Any progress on Venezuela’s supply returning to international markets is potentially a game-changer and should mean the top of my longer-term range, at USD 120.00 a barrel, remains intact. Gold’s price action doesn’t inspire confidence Despite the US dollar falling heavily overnight, and risk sentiment rising generally, gold prices fell 0.53% to USD 1815.00 an ounce overnight, easing to USD 1814.50 in Asia. US yields climbing higher may have played a part, but the direction of the US dollar has been more important of late. When gold falls as the US dollar falls heavily, we should all take that as a warning sign, suggesting lower prices are the path of least resistance. As such, I believe gold’s downside risks have ratcheted higher. Support lies at USD 1789.00, followed by USD 1780.00 an ounce. Failure of the latter suggests a deeper correction to USD 1700.00. That move could occur quite quickly if USD 1780.00 fails. Gold has resistance at USD 1836.00, followed by the 200-DMA at USD 1836.80, and then USD 1850.00 an ounce. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Australia Is Expected To Produce A Bumper Year Of Crops

The UN Is Stepping In To Help Wheat Exports, Platinum Prices Experiencing Volatility and The West Turns To Asia For RBOB Gasoline Supply

Rebecca Duthie 19.05.2022 13:13

Summary: The UN plans to help bring wheat prices down and even out exports. Concerns around supply and demand causing Platinum price volatility. Asia beginning to supply the west with gasoline Read next: More Expensive Coffee!? Weather Conditions In South America Can Limit Crops. (WTI) Crude Oil Price Recovering, Palladium Prices Rise Amidst Concerns Around Supply Wheat prices calm as the UN steps in The price of wheat futures have dropped in the wake of the UNs announcement of their plans to “revamp” wheat exports, especially those that were affected by the war in the Ukraine. Expectations of an increase in control over wheat exports and therefore more certainty around supply has brought the price of wheat slightly down. Concerns around supply of wheat have been heightened by the Ukraines issues around exporting as their ports are being targeted by the Russian forces, in addition, the wheat supply from India has been stripped away from the international market. Wheat Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Platinum prices seeing volatility On Wednesday the price of platinum futures hit $950, the price rise came amidst concerns that there will be an increase in demand in the automotive industry and a falling supply which is due to reduce the current surplus the metal has. There are concerns around supply due to the sanctions on Russia and operational problems with some of the largest producers in South Africa. Platinum Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline futures prices fall Although the price of RBOB gasoline futures is decreasing the demand is expected to increase in the summer as driving increases, putting the supply under even more pressure. The West is turning to Asia to supply them with gasoline barrels, the increased supply is driving the price down, however whether or not that will last is under question. RBOB Gasoline Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: (XAUUD) Gold Regains Investor Interest As The Dollar Weakens, NGAS Prices Going Up, Cotton Price Rising Along With Concerns Around Supply Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com

The Commodities Feed: Another week passes with no EU ban | ING Economics

ING Economics 20.05.2022 08:36

Your daily roundup of commodities news and ING views Tank farm for storage of petroleum products in Volgograd, Russia Energy It appears that another week will pass with the EU still unable to agree on a Russian oil ban. While it is taking longer than expected to come to an agreement, we believe that member states will eventually come to a deal. How much of an impact this will have on the market will depend on how watered down the final agreement is relative to the proposal. The effectiveness of the ban will also depend on the actions of countries outside the EU. Bloomberg reports that China is looking to potentially buy Russian crude for its strategic reserves. Although this shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise if China is set to increase its share of Russian oil purchases. The significant discounts available for Russian crude will prove very tempting for some buyers, like China and India. Self-sanctioning will already be affecting Russian oil flows to the EU, even in the absence of an official oil ban. This has left the EU to look elsewhere for alternative supplies, and whilst the US is an obvious candidate (given the expectation of relatively strong supply growth), we could in fact see US crude exports coming under pressure given the narrowing that we have seen in the WTI/Brent discount. The July WTI/Brent discount narrowed to less than US$2/bbl at one stage this week, after starting the month at more than a US$4/bbl discount. Inventories continue to point towards a tightening of the refined products market in Europe. The latest data from Insights Global show that gasoil inventories in the ARA region fell by 31kt over the week to 1.55kt, leaving inventories at multi-year lows. However, the big move over the week was in European gasoline inventories. Gasoline stocks in ARA fell by 342kt to 1.05mt. This decline over the week has seen gasoline inventories fall from more than a 5-year high to just below the 5-year average. Singapore also saw a further tightening in light distillate stocks over the week, with inventory levels declining by 815Mbbls to 13.74MMbbls, leaving them hovering just above the 5-year average. Clearly, the tightness that we are seeing in the US gasoline market is spreading into other regions. And given that the driving season is still ahead of us, we would expect to see further declines in inventories, which should prove supportive for gasoline prices over the summer. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM European gas prices came under pressure yesterday. TTF fell by more than 3.7%, which saw the market settling at its lowest levels since the start of the war. European gas storage continues to improve due to strong LNG inflows. Storage in Europe is almost 41% full at the moment compared to a 5-year average of around 44% for this stage of the year. The gap between current inventories and the 5-year average continues to narrow. Assuming we go through injection season with no significant disruption to Russian gas flows, Europe should enter the next heating season with a comfortable inventory. However, this is a big assumption, and the risk of disruption is likely to continue to keep the market trading at historically high levels. US natural gas prices also came under pressure yesterday, selling off almost 2.7%. Weekly storage data shows that US gas storage increased by 89Bcf over the week, which was slightly higher than the 5-year average of 87Bcf. Agriculture The latest data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association shows that sugar production in India has increased to around 34.9mt so far this season. The association reported that around 116 sugar mills were still operating as of 15 May. ISMA maintained its export estimate at around 9mt for the current year, with around 8.5mt of export sales already made. The food ministry reported that sugar exports have increased to around 7.5mt as of 18th May, already surpassing last year’s 7.2mt of exports. The ministry estimates that around 3.5mt of sugar equivalent would be diverted to ethanol this year and expects this to grow with targets of around 6mt by 2025. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Read this article on THINK TagsSugar Russian oil ban Natural gas Gasoline shortage Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Bank of Canada Keeps Rates Unchanged with a Hawkish Outlook, but We Believe Rates Have Peaked

Green Energy Stocks To Dominate Markets In The Near Future? | America's growing bioenergy market needs clearer monitoring and more innovation | ING Economics

ING Economics 20.05.2022 00:00

Bioenergy is a crucial pathway to net-zero emissions by 2050. The bioenergy market in the US has been growing and diversifying, with strong growth potential seen in carbon capture and storage (CCS), renewable diesel, and renewable natural gas. Addressing the environmental impact of bioenergy needs clear monitoring and more innovative solutions Bioenergy is a form of renewable energy derived from organic material Bioenergy, a form of renewable energy derived from organic materials (or biomass), will play a pivotal role in helping the world achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. With a wide range of application options in sectors such as transport, heating, and electricity, bioenergy is forecast to account for 19% of total energy supply in 2050 and will contribute to 13% of the emissions reduction between 2020 and 2030 under the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Net-Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario. Emissions reductions by mitigation measure in the Net-Zero Emissions scenario, 2020-50 Source: International Energy Agency In the US, the development of bioenergy has been accelerating and expanding. In the transport sector, the US is home to the world’s largest biofuels market, and the demand for biofuels in North America is expected to grow more than any other region through 2026 under the IEA’s baseline scenario. Growth will continue to be led by a diversification of biofuels supply beyond conventional ethanol, as advanced biofuels like renewable diesel and renewable natural gas (RNG) keep gaining momentum. Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are another point of growth; these will be covered in a later article. Biofuel demand growth by region in the baseline scenario, 2021-2026 Source: International Energy Agency But the deployment of and investment in bioenergy is rising in other sectors as well, led by mounting action from corporates and investors across sectors to decarbonise their businesses and portfolios. So, let's take a look at the growth prospects of various bioenergy applications in the US, as well as the challenges they face. Examples of bioenergy-related corporate climate strategies: Oil and gas: ExxonMobil identifies biofuels as one of its core solutions for its net-zero ambition. The company announced in early 2022 that it would acquire a 49.9% stake in Biojet AS, a Norwegian biofuels company, to receive up to three million barrels of biofuels per year. ExxonMobil is also investing $125m in California-based Global Clean Energy to purchase up to five million barrels per year of renewable diesel. Petrochemicals: Dow sees the creation of a circular economy through recycling and using bio-based materials as a focus area to accelerate sustainability. The company is expanding an agreement with Fuenix Ecogy Group to ramp up circular plastics production. It has also signed agreements with Gunvor Petroleum Rotterdam and Texas-based New Hope Energy to purify pyrolysis oil feedstocks derived from plastic waste. Power: Southern Company last year took ownership of the Meadow Branch Landfill Methane Recovery Facility, the renewable natural gas facility located in Tennessee, to strengthen its RNG capacity as part of the company’s strategy to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Biofuels: Federal policies will have a net positive effect on US production this year The main federal policy to support the US biofuels market is the renewable fuel standard (RFS), which requires refiners to blend certain volumes of biofuels in gasoline each year. The RFS benefited biofuels production – especially that of fuel ethanol – in the past, although in recent years the RFS has become more susceptible to policy uncertainty. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which is in charge of setting RFS mandates, last December proposed to retroactively lower biofuel mandates for 2020 and 2021 but set 2022 requirements slightly above pre-pandemic levels. This will put pressure on refiners to blend more biofuel into their gasoline production this year, resulting in a net positive impact on the biofuels industry. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM In addition, the EPA has proposed the rejection of all outstanding small refinery exemption (SREs) waivers pending for the 2016-20 compliance years. SREs give small refiners that process less than 75,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil and can demonstrate economic hardship caused by the RFS an exemption from complying with the rules. If implemented, this decision would substantially raise the demand for biofuel credits. A federal policy that will specifically boost the production of ethanol is the Biden administration's plan to allow E15 gasoline, a fuel that uses a 15% ethanol blend, to be sold between June and September. E15 gasoline is typically banned in summer due to worries about air pollution. E15 consumption is low also because of retail availability, automobile compatibility, and safety concerns. But heightened oil prices amid the Russia-Ukraine war have made the case for more E15 gasoline sales to ease prices. State level policies are a powerful addition At the state level, California’s low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS), the backbone of a carbon intensity-based cap-and-trade system, has been playing a substantial role in incentivising biofuels production in and near the state. The LCFS aims to achieve a 20% reduction in the carbon intensity of California’s transportation fuel pool by 2030, with compliance standards set for each year. Carbon intensity (CIs) based on composite of gasoline and diesel fuels under the LCFS Source: California Air Resources Board Since last year, LCFS credits (supply) generated from low-carbon fuels have increasingly outgrown LCFS deficits (demand), which has led to a 23% fall from the record high LCFS price of $206/metric ton to $158/metric ton in March 2022. This is mainly because the demand for gasoline and LCFS credits has not recovered from the pandemic, whereas the production of low-carbon fuels keeps growing steadily. The biggest driver of recent LCFS credit generation is renewable diesel, followed by electricity, which has been boosted by the continuing adoption of electric vehicles. LCFS total credits and deficits for all fuels reported Note: Cumulative bank refers to total number of banked credits Source: California Air Resources Board LCFS credit generation by fuel type *Hydrogen, Renewable Naphtha, Propane, Innovative Crude & Low Complexity/Low Energy Use Refining, etc.. Note: Project based credits are issued post verification and may not be included. Source: California Air Resources Board It remains to be seen whether this deficit trend will be temporary or permanent; we also don't know how the expected implementation of similar programmes in adjacent jurisdictions will alter the LCFS system in California. In addition to the Clean Fuels Program in Oregon which is already in place, Washington State is expecting to implement its Clean Fuel Standard in 2023 and a federal fuel standard is set to come into force in Canada in the same year. Other US states including New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, and states in the Northeast and Midwest are also in various stages of developing LCFS-style systems. These programmes will provide effective additions to the federal RFS programme in driving biofuels demand. Renewable diesel takes the lead in advanced biofuel deployment The production of biomass-based diesel – namely biodiesel and renewable diesel – has taken off in the US and is set to increase further. Of the two, biodiesel dominates the bio-based diesel market, but renewable diesel is seeing faster growth. This is partly because renewable diesel is compatible with existing distribution infrastructure and engines. With the same composition as fossil diesel, renewable diesel does not have a blending limit, whereas biodiesel typically accounts for up to 20% of fossil diesel in the US, because of insufficient regulatory incentives despite higher blends being available. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM Renewable diesel’s ability to lower carbon intensity, particularly in trucking and aviation, has prompted several US refineries to invest in greenfield projects and/or convert traditional plants to process renewable diesel. Refineries set to complete conversion between 2022-23 include Marathon Petroleum’s Martinez refinery in California, CVR Energy’s Wynnewood refinery in Oklahoma, and HollyFrontier’s Cheyenne plant in Wyoming, etc. Planned renewable diesel capacity in the US is expected to reach 6bn gallons by 2025, up from less than 2.4bn gallons estimated for 2021. One major challenge to the growth of both biodiesel and renewable diesel is feedstock availability and costs. It is estimated by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) that the demand for bio-based diesel feedstock will more than double from 2020 to 38.3bn pounds (17.4bn kilograms) in 2022, and soar to over 64bn pounds (19bn kilograms) in 2024. Prices for bio-based diesel feedstock have also climbed since 2020, causing some companies to postpone their renewable diesel projects. US estimated bio-based diesel feedstock use and implied future demand from capacity additions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance In the long term, despite the growth momentum for bio-based diesel, the Energy Information Administration forecasts that bio-based diesel will remain a small part of the diesel market, accounting for less than 8% of US diesel production in 2050. This is partially due to competition from food consumption and electric vehicles (EVs), which will be discussed in a later section. Nevertheless, that 8% still translates into roughly 0.23mn bpd of production, a considerable absolute amount. RNG to see demand build up in the power sector Another promising advanced biofuel which is set for growth is renewable natural gas (RNG), or biogas that has been upgraded to replace fossil gas. RNG production capacity in the US increased at a compound annual rate of 35% between 2017 and 2021, thanks to $1.7bn of investment from oil and gas companies. Looking forward, RNG demand is projected to jump from 0.2 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) today to between 2.3 and 3.2 Tcf in 2040, according to BNEF. The fuel is forecast to be capable of displacing 6-12% of the US natural gas demand. RNG can be produced from various sources. Landfill has the strongest supply and cost advantage – most landfill RNG projects can be economical at $10/MMBtu or lower; landfill accounts for more than 60% of the RNG credits generated under the RFS and more than 90% of the RNG credits under the LCFS. In contrast, RNG produced from manure is more costly – at $30/MMBtu or higher – but remains attractive under the LCFS as it offers one of the lowest carbon intensities of less than -300 gCO2e/MJ. Importantly, although RNG demand from transportation dominates now, the majority of demand for RNG by 2040 will come from the power sector. In California, where the LCFS is advanced, RNG already contributes to 98% of natural gas used for transportation, mostly in municipal buses and trucking. The can add risks to future project returns if the produced RNG cannot be contracted in time. There is a potential in the long term for more RNG to be used in shipping, though it will encounter competition from other biofuels or synthetic fuels. RNG producers are starting to pivot their focus away from the transport sector. Archaea Energy is aiming to sell its RNG to natural gas utilities through long-term offtake agreements. The company plans to allocate 65% of its RNG production to non-transport applications. Admittedly, electricity generation from RNG today is more expensive than from conventional gas and the contribution of RNG to the grid is limited. Yet demand is likely to be sustained in the future, driven by climate commitments from commercial/residential customers and precuring requirements set for utilities. California now mandates utility company SoCalGas to increase RNG’s share of gas deliveries from 4% in 2021 to 12.5% by 2030. Oregon passed legislation to allow RNG to account for 30% of a utility’s purchases by 2045; the state is also letting utilities recover prudently incurred costs to meet the target. A handful of other states are considering similar policies. Outlook for US renewable natural gas demand Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance The favourable outlook for RNG/biogas can also augment the production of bio-fertilisers, which can be generated from the waste from biogas production. This will help meet the rising demand for bio-fertilisers in the US, spurred by growing preferences for organic food, as well as concerns over the likely harmful effects of chemical fertilisers on both health and the environment. US to pioneer in BECCS development The US is poised to lead the deployment of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) technology, a high-potential application of bioenergy. BECCS involves converting biomass to heat, electricity, or liquid fuels while capturing and storing the CO2 that is emitted during the conversion process. Since the growing of plant biomass absorbs CO2, BECCS can achieve net negative emissions when the emitted CO2 from bioenergy generation is permanently stored. Indeed, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted in its most recent report the need for carbon removal technologies for the world to reach net-zero emissions. The US is already a front-runner in CCS – it is home to 36 of the 71 new CCS projects added worldwide during the first nine months of 2021. On top of this, several BECCS networks are emerging in the Midwest thanks to lower costs of bioethanol production. Summit Carbon Solutions, for instance, is progressing with a project to link more than 30 ethanol biorefineries across Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota. With a total potential capturing capacity of 8 Mtpa, the network would be the largest of its kind globally. Valero Energy and BlackRock are partnering with Navigator Energy Services to develop an industrial-scale CCS network that would connect biorefineries and other industrial plants across five Midwest states. The challenges facing bioenergy The use of bioenergy is not without controversy. The main challenge is the negative impact of bioenergy generation from excessive land use. From an environmental point of view, growing feedstocks such as soybeans and corn can lead to more deforestation, degradation of soil, and harmful changes to ecosystems. From a social point of view, despite yield growth potentials, the more feedstock is used for biofuels, the less there will be for food production. This has been exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war, which has disrupted the global food supply chain as both countries are major exporters of several leading crops. Hence, concerns have arisen in the US that the increasing use of crops for biofuels will limit food supply and add pressure to food prices. To tackle the problem in the long term, there needs to be a switch away from conventional, food-based biofuel feedstocks to advanced biofuels which use non-food crops, municipal solid waste, and agricultural and forest residues. The IEA forests that 60% of the global bioenergy supply in 2050 will need to come from sources that do not need dedicated land use to achieve net-zero emissions. Accelerating advanced biofuel production requires stronger incentives compared to those for conventional biofuels. In the US, the federal Biomass Crop Assistance Program provides financial assistance to producers of advanced biofuel feedstock. The Biden administration has also included in its FY23 budget $245m to accelerate the R&D of next-generation biofuel technologies. Another challenge is that the traditional use of bioenergy (burning wood or traditional charcoal) remains controversial as it can cause more emissions and deforestation. The EU still categorises bioenergy as green in its Taxonomy, but has strengthened the criteria to exclude certain forms of wooden biomass from qualifying as “renewable”. In the US, the EPA sees bioenergy as a cleaner fuel, while also recognising its negative potential if not managed well. Moreover, bioenergy-based solutions face scepticism that the supply chain – which involves biomass growing, transportation, storage, and processing – can emit more CO2 and harm the environment. That is why more precise monitoring and reporting of life-cycle emissions along a bioenergy technology’s supply chain needs to be in place. Finally, competing low-carbon technologies can complicate the growth of bioenergy. In the transport sector, the massive adoption of EVs will be a major threat to the demand for biofuels. As mentioned above, RNG developers are expanding their business footprint to the power sector, though these developers will likely encounter competition from renewable energy. Nonetheless, biofuels are still likely to maintain their niche in transportation, especially in heavy-duty trucks and aeroplanes, as it will be challenging for EVs to provide long-haul services without a step-change in technology. Global bioenergy supply in the Net-Zero by 2050 Scenario, 2010-50 Source: International Energy Agency Read this article on THINK TagsUnited States Renewables Net zero Energy Transition Biofuels Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Forex: XAU/USD Is Rising For The 3rd Day In A Row!

What's Going To Be Gold Price (XAUUSD)? Gold – Back in favour? | Oanda

Craig Erlam 19.05.2022 23:53

Or just a blip? Gold has very much fallen out of favour over the last month as it fell 10% on the back of coming within a whisker of $2,000. But has something changed? We’ve seen plenty of risk aversion in the markets over the last 24 hours, with stock markets falling heavily, and rather than being particularly supportive for the dollar, it’s gold that has performed well which hasn’t really been the case in recent weeks. Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform| FXMAG.COM Perhaps that’s because higher inflation and therefore interest rate expectations have been behind all of the gloom in the markets, which is typically bullish for the dollar. Whereas the last 24 hours seem to have seen a shift. Rather than interest rates, it’s economic fears that are driving the negativity in the markets. Higher inflation is squeezing margins which means higher prices. And the Fed has gone from anticipating a soft landing, to softish and now just a safe one. That shouldn’t fill anyone with confidence. And maybe that’s why we’re seeing investors move back towards gold. Of course, we’ve seen plenty of big sentiment swings in the markets, especially this year, so that could change. But it’s possible that gold may be back in favour. The first test of this comes around $1,850 which has been support and resistance in the past and coincides with the upper end of the 55/89-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. This is followed by $1,875-1,900, a break of which would be a strong signal. A break back below $1,800 on the other hand would suggest quite the opposite unless accompanied by very positive economic news which seems unlikely at this point. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

China: Slowdown in Non-Manufacturing Activity Raises GDP Downgrade Concerns

US Close – Stocks Near Bear Market, Crude Oil Price Higher On Supply Concerns, Gold Price (XAUUSD) Pops, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Stabilizes | Oanda

Ed Moya 19.05.2022 23:51

US stocks edged lower as Wall Street became more focused over a deteriorating growth outlook that could see stubbornly high pricing pressures for the Fed into a much more aggressive tightening cycle. It doesn’t seem like we will see a deceleration in pricing pressures and that has many traders worried that the Fed will send the economy into a recession. Right now markets are functioning properly but if we see another 5% decline with stocks, credit conditions will worsen and that could provide the Fed an excuse to stop tightening so aggressively. Tighter financial conditions will hurt the parts of the economy that are doing well and further selling of stocks could remain the theme if the S&P 500 enters a bear market. The S&P 500 is looking vulnerable here as more strategists slash their forecasts as recession risks rise. Fed (Federal Reserve) Fed’s George affirmed the board’s stance that a half-point rate increase pace is appropriate. The Fed remains focused with fighting inflation and they will remain aggressive with tightening policy until liquidity becomes a concern. FX (Forex) The dollar is in freefall as investors buy up Treasuries over concerns that the economy is headed for a rough patch. The dollar was ripe for a pullback and today’s across the board weakness might continue a while longer. Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform| FXMAG.COM US Data A wrath of US economic data painted a gloomy picture of the economy: Jobless claims rose, the housing market is clearly cooling, another Fed regional survey showed the weakest print since early in the pandemic and the leading index turned negative. Weekly jobless claims rose from 197,000 to 218,000. The Philly Fed manufacturing outlook fell sharply from 17.6 to 2.6. Surging mortgage rates and record home prices led to a drop in April existing home sales Crude Oil Price Crude prices rallied as the EU nears a key deadline to pay for Russian oil with a roubles account. The oil market just has too many risks to supplies and still a strong short-term travel outlook both in the EU and US. WTI crude should be well supported at the $100 level as US production is slowly increasing. Recession fears are rising but that impact won’t be felt for quite a while, which means the oil market won’t see imminent crude demand destruction. Crude inventories are too low for oil traders to turn bearish with WTI crude. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM Gold Price Gold is acting like a safe-haven again as recession fears are triggering massive demand for Treasuries, which is sending both yields and the dollar lower. The US labor market is showing signs of weakness and that could lead fears that consumer spending will deteriorate much faster than most are expecting. The dollar is getting sold against everything and that is great news for gold. Right now, investors are looking for safety and Treasuries and gold should both outperform in the short-term. Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin is hovering around the $30,000 level as investors continue to shy away from stocks. A weaker dollar and bear market stock fears are making Bitcoin attractive again. It seems the fallout from all the stablecoin drama that sent cryptos sharply lower is finally fading. Bitcoin looks poised to consolidate here, but bulls should be happy to see prices are not mimicking what happens with the stock market. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta Opinion About Gold Movements

(XAUUSD) Gold Prices Rise In The Wake Of Concerns Around U.S Economic Slowdown, Crude Oil Prices Rally In Response To Increasing Demand And Concerns Around Supply, Cotton Prices

Rebecca Duthie 20.05.2022 17:01

Summary: The post-covid world and the war in the Ukraine caused Crude Oil to rally. Gold futures are on the rise amidst concerns around economic slowdown of the US economy. Cotton prices fall marginally despite concerns around increasing demand and tightening supply. Read next: The UN Is Stepping In To Help Wheat Exports, Platinum Prices Experiencing Volatility and The West Turns To Asia For RBOB Gasoline Supply XAUUSD Gold prices rally Gold prices pushed up past $1.830 on Friday, the gain comes in the wake of the softening U.S economic data amid the hawkish Federal Reserve and its continuing aggressive monetary policy. The soft economic data has raised concerns around economic growth. The hawkish Fed will continue to hike interest rates despite fears of economic slowdown which is causing the US Dollar to weaken and pushing treasury yields lower. Investors are turning to gold as a hedge against the growth concerns, ultimately driving the gold price up. Gold Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart WTI Crude Futures Crude Oil Futures pushed above $112 on Friday amidst concerns around demands returning to a normal level as China eases their COVID-19 lockdowns and the embargo in Russian oil looming simultaneously occurring as fears of economic slowdown heighten. The post-covid world is seeing average driving mileage increasing in the U.S causing an increase in demand, as well as the EU pushing the ban on Russian oil to be certain by the end of the month. Crude Oil Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton futures Cotton futures prices have faced downward momentum over the past week. However, the prices are still high, the raised prices come in the wake of rising demand and tightening supplies. Cotton Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: More Expensive Coffee!? Weather Conditions In South America Can Limit Crops. (WTI) Crude Oil Price Recovering, Palladium Prices Rise Amidst Concerns Around Supply Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com

EUR/USD: Evaluating the Stretch of the Rally

COT Futures Charts: Soft Commodities Speculator bets mixed

Invest Macro 22.05.2022 12:32

Demand For Brent Crude Oil Rises, Silver Prices Rise, Improved Corn Crop Eases Supply Concerns

Rebecca Duthie 23.05.2022 11:11

Summary: Brent crude oil prices are rising in response to increasing demand. Silver prices are rising again. Improved weather conditions is leaving the market hopeful for an improved corn crop. Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold Prices Rise In The Wake Of Concerns Around U.S Economic Slowdown, Crude Oil Prices Rally In Response To Increasing Demand And Concerns Around Supply, Cotton Prices Brent Crude Oil prices rising With the expected increase in demand for Brent crude oil in both the United States and in China's post-lockdown world, the price of Brent crude oil is rising. U.S gasoline and fuel prices remain at a record high level as the busiest driving season approaches. The market expects the demand for Brent crude to increase with the easing of lockdowns in China, causing further concerns around supply in an already tight market. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Silver prices rise again. A weakening US Dollar has aided in the rising price of Silver. Silver is considered a safe asset and is commonly used as a hedge against inflation which is attractive in the current economic environment. In addition, the rise in the price of silver also comes with investor need for safe-haven assets with the geo-political tensions and the concerns around the slowing global growth. Silver Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn futures fall Late last week the price of corn futures fell, this came in the wake of investors buying wheat and selling corn in spread trades amidst signs of improved U.S corn crop planting. The improved corn planting is easing concerns around supply, driving the price lower. Corn Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: ECB Offering The Euro Support (EUR/USD), Strengthening Of The Renminbi Supporting The EUR and GBP, SNB Turns Hawkish (EUR/CHF) - Good Morning Forex! Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com

A Better Situation In China May Prevent A Much Sharper Fall In Oil Prices

Crude Oil (WTI) is pressured following geopolitical conflict | ICM.COM

ICM.COM Market Updates 24.05.2022 09:10

Traders will be looking for a fresh direction when Crude Oil Inventories data is released on Wednesday WTI fell from Monday's high of around $111.90 and is trading at $109.46 in the Asian session as of writing. Oil prices are under downward pressure following EU's proposed ban on Russian oil which looks to be unconvincing. In the meantime, Russian oil continues to be exported, though the risk of price increase still remains. Traders will be looking for a fresh direction when Crude Oil Inventories data is released on Wednesday, and another meeting is scheduled next week by the bloc's leaders to further discuss the situation. Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-bears-in-control-as-eus-proposed-ban-on-russian-oil-looks-unlikely-202205240200 Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

COT: Wheat and crude oil length jump | Saxo Bank

Ole Hansen 23.05.2022 15:10

Summary: Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex up until last Tuesday, May 17. A week where risk sentiment continued to swing between hot and cold, long end bonds held steady while the dollar showed signs of topping out. The commodity sector rallied strongly with gains in energy, grains and softs more than offsetting fading weakness in precious metals Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial. Link to latest report This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities and forex up until last Tuesday, May 17. A week where risk sentiment continued to swing between hot and cold before the S&P 500 Index recorded a 2% gain on the week, long end bonds held steady while the dollar showed signs of topping out. The commodity sector rallied strongly with gains in energy, grains and softs more than offsetting fading weakness in precious metals.Latest across market updates on can be found in our daily Financial Market Quick Take here Commodities The Bloomberg Commodity Spot index jumped 5.6% on the week with risk sentiment seeing a revival supported by bouncing stocks and a softer dollar. Gains being led by energy and grains, the two strongest sectors based on current fundamentals. Most notable buying seen in crude oil, soybeans, wheat, sugar and coffee while precious and industrial metals remained challenged by the recent slump. Overall hedge funds responded to these developments by adding length for the first time in four weeks to 13 out of the 24 major commodity futures tracked in this with the combined net long rising 4% to 1.74 million lots. Energy: Money managers increased their bullish bets on WTI and Brent crude oil by 60k lots during a week where a tight product market, especially in the US, triggered a double digit rally in WTI while Brent returned to challenge resistance in the $115 area. The biggest weekly addition in six months lifted the combined net long in WTI and Brent to 469k lots, an 11-week high. Despite supporting price action, the ICE gas oil contract saw continued long liquidation with the net long slumping to a 17 month low at 73k lots, down 50% from the February peak. Metals: The metal sectors share of the total net exposure shrank to a three-year low at just 2% on a combination of net short positions being held in platinum, palladium and copper together with reduced bullish exposure in gold and silver.Speculators cut their net long in gold by 26% to an eight-month low at 54k lots while silver returned to neutral for only the second time in three years. The copper net-short stayed near a two-year high at 17.2k with short-covering being offset by long liquidation as the price rose by 2%. Highlighting the need for an even bigger bounce in order to force a change in the current weak sentiment towards copper and the industrial sector in general. The same goes for gold, which in order to turn more investor friendly, will need to break the next significant hurdle at $1868, the 38.2% retracement of the recent 210-dollar correction.Agriculture: In grains, the net long in Chicago wheat jumped by 71% to 26k lots, a 14 month high, after the price surged by 17% in response to US crop worries and after India’s export ban jolted the market. The soybean complex was mixed with buying of soybeans being offset by selling of meal and oil. In softs, funds increased their Arabica coffee net long by 51% to 29k lots, driven by short-covering, as the price jumped 11.5% on frost worries. Despite persistent worries about the outlook for production in Brazil following last year’s frost damage and current weather worries, the price has been loosing momentum in response to global demand worries. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM Forex In fx, speculators maintained an unchanged dollar long position in a week where profit taking reigned as the greenback lost ground against all the currencies tracking in this update. Overall the changes were very modest with net selling of the commodity currencies being offset by MXN and another week of euro buying. These changes effectively left the aggregate dollar long against nine IMM currency futures and the Dollar Index unchanged on the week at $22.9 billion.What is the Commitments of Traders report? The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class. Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and otherFinancials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and otherForex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators) The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are: They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming Source: Saxo Bank Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

XAUUSD Prices Rise As Investors Turn To Safer Assets, Cotton Prices, NGAS Prices Still Rising As Concerns Around Supply Continue

Rebecca Duthie 24.05.2022 11:29

Summary: Gold prices rose the past week in the wake of a weakening US Dollar. Concerns around cotton supply persist. NGAS prices are still rising as concerns around supply persist Read next: Demand For Brent Crude Oil Rises, Silver Prices Rise, Improved Corn Crop Eases Supply Concerns Gold (XAAUSD) prices on the rise The US Dollar had a softer start to the week amidst concerns around a slowing economy and the possibility of a recession. On Tuesday U.S benchmark yields rose as equities rallied. Investors seem to be seeking safer investments such as gold as the market awaits the Fed Chairs comments on key economic data, such as, PCI and first quarter GDP. Therefore, the price of gold is rising. XAUUSD Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton futures prices Cotton prices dropped from their 11 year peak of $158 in early may. There are still concerns around supply as the droughts in Texas continue and global protected supply numbers are also falling, whilst demand is remaining stable in the post-covid world. Cotton Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Increased demand for NGAS is pushing up the price There is a higher international and domestic demand for Natural gas, which is driving the price of the NGAS futures up. The world is experiencing an energy shortage in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine. However, higher production and exports (especially in the US) should help limit the upward price momentum going forward. NGAS Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: ECB Offering The Euro Support (EUR/USD), Strengthening Of The Renminbi Supporting The EUR and GBP, SNB Turns Hawkish (EUR/CHF) - Good Morning Fore Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com

OPEC+ Meeting: Saudi Arabia Implements Deeper Voluntary Cuts to Boost Oil Prices

What's The Future Of Energy Stocks? High Crude Oil Prices And No New Investments | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments 24.05.2022 12:29

A paradox seems to be emerging in the oil market. Typically, high prices caused companies to increase investment so they could produce more, boosting their profits and meeting demand. Currently, this may not be the case. Investors were also concerned that high oil prices could reduce fuel consumption around the world Oil prices are still above the $100 per barrel mark, but oil production companies are not expected to invest in exploring new fields or starting new drills. Representatives of the world's largest company, Saudi Aramco, are even announcing that the world may face a serious supply crisis in the oil market. Energy companies may be afraid to invest in this sector in the face of pressure related to politicians' attitude toward energy transformation and renewable energy sources - Reuters reports. Thus, energy companies may keep their current profits to themselves instead of investing until regulations and laws lead to a reduction in their market share. This, in a way, may explain why OPEC may care about high oil prices and why the cartel is not increasing production to the levels it declared earlier. Additionally, investors were also concerned that high oil prices could reduce fuel consumption around the world. Moreover, at the annual economic summit in Davos, political and business representatives highlighted the risk of a global recession in the face of multiple threats. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said she does not expect a recession in major economies, but cannot rule it out. Meanwhile, lingering concerns about tight global supply and hopes for a return of demand in China provided some support for oil prices as Shanghai prepares to reopen and lift restrictions. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM In contrast, rising oil prices and slowing economic growth will significantly constrain demand growth for the remainder of 2022 and into 2023, according to a May IEA report. In addition, prolonged restrictions in China, where the government is battling the spread of the Covid-19 virus, are causing a significant slowdown in the world's second-largest oil consumer. For the full year, global oil demand is forecast to average 99.4 mb/d in 2022, up 1.8 mb/d year-on-year. If refiners cannot keep up with the pace of demand growth, consumers could come under additional pressure With the easing of restrictions in China, increased summer car traffic and further increases in jet fuel prices, global oil demand will rise by 3.6 mb/d from its April-August low. If refiners cannot keep up with the pace of demand growth, consumers could come under additional pressure. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Declines At The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange, The Drop Leaders Were Nike Inc Shares

Global stocks retreat after rebound in previous session - 24.5.2022 | IFCMarkets

Ara Zohrabian 24.05.2022 14:05

Todays’ Market Summary The Dollar weakening has halted Futures on three main US stock indexes are down Brent is edging lower currently as an agreement on Russian oil imports ban still escapes European Union though German economy minister says he expects EU embargo on Russian oil 'within days'. Gold prices are edging up currently Top daily news Equities are pointing down currently as US Treasury yields inch down while markets rebounded on Monday. Amazon slipped 0.03% amid reports it is planning to sublease some of its warehouse space because the pandemic-fueled surge in online shopping has slowed, Microsoft shares rose 3.2% outperforming market on Monday. Forex news Currency Pair Change EUR USD -0.32% GBP USD -0.04% USD JPY +0.37% AUD USD -0.36% The Dollar weakening has halted currently. The live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, lost 0.5% on Monday. EUR/USD joined GBP/USD’s continuing climbing Monday while the Ifo institute reported German business sentiment continued to improve in May. Both pairs are down currently. AUD/USD resumed its advancing yesterday while USD/JPY continued its climbing with the yen higher against the Greenback currently and Australian dollar retreating. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM Stock Market news Indices Change Dow Jones Index -0.59% Nikkei Index -1.14% Hang Seng Index -1.62% Australian Stock Index -0.58% Futures on three main US stock indexes are down currently ahead of U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers survey report at 15:45 CET with the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes inching down to 2.841%. US stock market reversed the selloff yesterday as President Biden said that he was considering easing tariffs on China. The three main US stock index benchmarks booked daily gains in the range of 1.6% to 2.0% Monday led by mega-cap growth shares. European stock indexes are down currently after closing up Monday led by banking and mining shares while European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde surprised markets by stating about possible rate hike as early as July. Asian indexes are falling today with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index leading losses while Markit reported Japan's manufacturing activity grew at the slowest pace in three months in May. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM Commodity Market news Commodities Change Brent Crude Oil -0.52% WTI Crude -1.31% Brent is edging lower currently as an agreement on Russian oil imports ban still escapes European Union though German economy minister says he expects EU embargo on Russian oil 'within days'. Prices advanced marginally yesterday. US West Texas Intermediate WTI added 0.01% but is lower currently. Brent gained 0.7% to $113.42 a barrel on Monday. Gold Market News Metals Change Gold +0.15% Gold prices are edging up currently. Spot gold yesterday closed up 0.39% at $1852.74 an ounce on Monday.

Inclusion of Government Bonds in Global Indices to Provide Further Support for India's Stable Currency Amid Economic Growth

What's It Going To Be Drivers? Crude Oil Drifting, Price Of Gold Price (XAUUSD) Edges Higher | Oanda

Craig Erlam 24.05.2022 14:19

Oil rally stalls Oil prices are relatively flat on Tuesday as global economic fears and the prospect of tighter restrictions in Beijing take some of the heat out of the rally. Brent and WTI are trading right at the upper end of the range they’ve been within the last couple of months, with tight supplies, easing restrictions in Shanghai and a potential EU ban on Russian oil imports driving the price higher. As has been the case for months now, there are so many countering forces in the market that it can be hard to keep up. Not to mention sentiment in the broader markets drastically changing from one day to the next. It’s quite a challenging market right now but one thing is clear, it’s still extremely tight and those pressures will keep prices elevated. Just not quite as much as it would if not for the recession warnings and Chinese Covid cases. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Gold edges higher Gold is aiming for a fifth consecutive winning day on Tuesday as a softer dollar and slightly lower US yields have allowed for a recovery in the yellow metal. It is trading back above USD 1,850, with USD 1,875 and USD 1,900 being the next big tests. If USD 1,850 fails to hold as support, the next test below falls around USD 1,835, with USD 1,800 then being the key support below that. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Commodities Update: Strong Russian Oil Flows to China and Volatility in European Gas Market

Crude Oil Rangebound, Gold Price (XAU/USD) Shines | Oanda

Ed Moya 24.05.2022 20:02

Oil looking for direction Oil prices remain directionless as energy traders try to assess how significant the deceleration in economic activity will be for the short-term crude demand outlook. The oil market remains tight but the COVID situation in China points to a gradual pickup in demand and that might keep this market rangebound a while longer. Saudi Prince Faisal bin Farhan noted that the kingdom has done what it can for global oil markets and that should mean production increases will remain slow. Oil prices will likely remain supported above the USD 100 level for the rest of the year. It looks like the only thing that will send oil back to the pre-COVID levels is demand destruction across the world’s largest economies and that probably won’t happen. WTI crude pared gains after a steady stream of weakening US economic data, but the overall outlook is still ok and a recession is unlikely until 2024. Gold Gold prices are surging as Treasury yields plunge following a wave of risk aversion that stemmed from disappointing earnings and deteriorating economic data from the US. Non-interest bearing gold is a safe-haven again and it could be on the verge of a major breakout if prices can recapture the USD 1885 level. A peak in Treasury yields is in place and now the dollar looks like it is ready for a pullback as the ECB is ready to raise rates which is good news for the euro. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM There might be no stopping gold right now as the wall of worry on Wall Street continues to grow. Gold should remain supported as inflationary pressures weigh further, China’s COVID situation remains a big unknown, and corporate America continues to slash outlooks. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

XAU/USD in correction towards $1,860, key events today in the lookout | ICM.COM

ICM.COM Market Updates 25.05.2022 08:33

Gold price (XAU/USD) is trading on correction towards $1,860 in the Asian session after reaching the high of $1868 yesterday as investors anticipate the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and US Durable Goods data later today. The yellow metal jumped strongly for the past week after reaching the low of around $1,786 printed on May 16. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News The strength in gold prices is due to the DXY's steep fall below 102.00 after making a record 19-year high of 105.00 on May 13. Following this, further gains in gold cannot be ruled out. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Source: Online Trading Platform | Currencies, Commodities, Stocks, Cryptos | ICM.com

Corn Prices Recorded Their Biggest Weekly Gain, Gold Demand In India May Suffer A Temporary Setback

The Commodities Feed: Further US gasoline draws | ING Economics

ING Economics 25.05.2022 08:37

Your daily roundup of commodities news and ING views Energy The oil market has traded firmer during the morning session in Asia. API numbers overnight were once again supportive for the market. Crude oil inventories are reported to have increased by 567Mbbls over the last week. However, there were continued product draws, with gasoline and distillate stocks falling by 4.22MMbbls and 949Mbbls respectively. The tightening in the US gasoline market will raise concerns over supply as we move into driving season. Tightness in the US is pulling in gasoline from elsewhere, including Europe, which is also looking increasingly tight. The US energy secretary has also not ruled out restricting petroleum exports, given rising prices. Up until now the US administration has been reluctant to go down this route and instead has focused on releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Whilst these releases may offer some relief to crude oil prices, they may do little to ease gasoline shortages if the bottleneck is on the refining side. It’s looking unlikely that differences over an EU ban on Russian oil imports will be resolved at next week’s meeting of EU leaders. The Hungarian Prime Minister has reportedly said that meetings on 30 and 31 May would not be an appropriate place to discuss the ban, whilst the European Commission President has also made similar comments. Therefore, the uncertainty over a Russian oil ban looks as though it will hang over markets for quite a bit longer. We continue to believe that the EU will eventually agree on a ban and, assuming it is not too different to the current proposal, we would expect the move to be supportive for prices, particularly over 2H22. Austrian Gas Grid Management (AGGM) announced the results of its recent purchase tender for natural gas for strategic reserves. The tender attracted 189 bids, which ended up seeing AGGM buying 7.7TWh of storage at an average price of EUR124.50/MWh including storage costs through until April 2023. This price is well above the current prompt price in Europe of around EUR85/MWh. Austrian gas storage levels are well below average at the moment - inventories are 29% full compared to a 5-year average of almost 45% at this stage of the year. EU allowances saw somewhat of a recovery yesterday, following the weakness seen over the past week due to EU plans to sell EUR20b worth of allowances from the Market Stability Reserve. The Dec-22 contract rallied by 4% yesterday to settle at EUR81.32/t, although it is still some distance from the more than EUR92/t we saw it trading at early last week. The catalyst for yesterday’s move appears to be comments from an EU official who was more supportive about the role that financial institutions play in the EU carbon market. This comes after the EU Parliament’s Environment Committee supported a proposal to restrict speculative activity in the EU carbon market. Agriculture There appears to be a growing trend of protectionist measures taken by governments around the world, given concerns over food security and inflationary pressures. After India recently surprised the market with a ban on wheat exports, the Indian government has now announced that it will limit sugar exports to 10mt in the current 2021/22 season, which ends in September. India is set to be the third-largest sugar exporter this season, behind Brazil and Thailand. The announcement is somewhat surprising, given that India has had a very strong sugarcane crop this season. However, as reflected in the price action, the market is not too concerned at the moment about this export limit, given that most in the market have been expecting Indian sugar exports this season to total around 9mt, so below the export limit. The bigger concern is that we see other countries taking similar action when it comes to agricultural commodity exports. Apart from the action taken by India, Malaysia is also set to ban chicken exports, whilst Indonesia has gone back and forth on a palm oil export ban. Read this article on THINK TagsSugar Russian oil ban Oil Natural gas EU carbon Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The Grains Sector Saw Continued Demand| Acceleration In The Sale Of Gold

Crude Oil And Price Of Gold (XAU/USD) Head Higher | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley 25.05.2022 14:24

White House unnerves oil markets Oil prices continued to range trade overnight, finishing almost unchanged in New York. Asia, though, has seen both Brent crude and WTI rise. A couple of items seem to be behind the move. A sharp 4.20 million drop in gasoline inventories late in New York from the API Inventory data is likely supportive, with gasoline prices becoming a major issue in the US. Following on from that, White House officials explicitly refusing to say possible crude export restrictions were off the table appears to have spooked Asian suppliers. The last thing the world needs right now is US crude oil export restrictions with global supplies already tight. That saw both Brent crude and WTI spike 1.0% higher in early Asian trade, although those gains have eased as the session has gone on. Brent crude is 0.90% higher at USD 114.70 a barrel, and WTI is 0.65% higher at USD 110.90 a barrel. The White House likely needs to “clarify” its stance, least it creates unintended consequences by pushing crude prices higher. Brent crude, notably, is testing multi-week resistance today. Brent crude is testing resistance at USD 114.70 today, which is followed by USD 116.00, with support at USD 112.00. Failure of USD 116.00 could set up a retest test of my medium-term resistance at 120.00. â€‹ WTI is taking comfort from the White House stance and is sitting in a USD 108.00 to USD 112.00 a barrel range. Nevertheless, a topside breakout by Brent crude will almost certainly drag WTI higher as well, precisely what President Biden doesn’t want. Gold rises once again Gold had another decent overnight session, buoyed by lower US yields and a still-weakening US Dollar. Gold finished 0.69% higher at USD 1866.50 an ounce. In Asia, some US dollar strength has seen it weaken slightly by 0.40% to USD 1859.00 an ounce. Overall, although I acknowledge gold’s upward momentum, I remain sceptical of its longevity until it manages to hold on to material gains in the face of US dollar strength. Read next: (TRX) TRON USD Decentralised Blockchain Platform That Focuses On Entertainment And Content Sharing. Altcoins: A Deep Look Into The TRON Network | FXMAG.COM The technical picture continues to remain supportive, and it seems only a marked US dollar recovery will cap gold’s rally. Gold took out resistance at the double top at USD 1865.00 an ounce which becomes intraday support, followed by USD 1845.00 and USD 1840.00 an ounce. It should now target USD 1886.00, its 100-day moving average. That would open up a test of USD 1900.00, although I suspect there will be plenty of option-related selling ahead of that level. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Potential Frost Causing Concerns Around Coffee Supplies, Crude Oil Demand Is Expected To Rise, Palladium Price Falls Amidst Easing Concerns Around Supply And Demand

Rebecca Duthie 25.05.2022 16:05

Summary: Weather conditions could have an adverse effect on coffee crops. Expected demand for crude oil rises as supply grows tighter. Demand and supply concerns around Palladium are easing. Read next: XAUUSD Prices Rise As Investors Turn To Safer Assets, Cotton Prices, NGAS Prices Still Rising As Concerns Around Supply Continue Coffee futures prices Coffee futures prices have been falling over the past week amidst easing concerns over the possibility of potentially crop damaging frost in Brazil. Last year the frost in Brazil damaged coffee crops and caused coffee prices to soar, which is keeping the market on edge during the upcoming winter season. Coffee Jul ‘22 Future Price Chart WTI Crude Oil futures prices rise As expected demand rises and supply grows weaker, the price of Crude oil rises. The new French minister said that those who are opposed to a new EU sanction on Russian oil imports could still be convinced. Further sanctions on Russian oil will tighten supplies further than they already are during a time where US demand is expected to rise as memorial day and the summer looms. WTI Crude Oil Jul Futures Price Chart Palladium futures prices decline in the wake of easing supply and demand concerns Concerns around palladium supplies along with demand are easing, causing the price to fall. Global demand is expected to rise by only 3% in 2022 as covid lockdowns and continuing supply chain bottlenecks will likely delay the chip supply recovery until at least 2023, undermining car production around the world. Palladium Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: Demand For Brent Crude Oil Rises, Silver Prices Rise, Improved Corn Crop Eases Supply Concerns Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com

Easing Concerns Around Supply Drives The Price Of Both Wheat And Platinum Down, RBOB Gasoline Continues To Rise

Rebecca Duthie 26.05.2022 11:17

Summary: Platinum prices are falling with demand. Russia opens safe corridors for forign exports in the Ukraine. RBOB Gasoline prices continue to rise. Read next: Potential Frost Causing Concerns Around Coffee Supplies, Crude Oil Demand Is Expected To Rise, Palladium Price Falls Amidst Easing Concerns Around Supply And Demand Platinum futures Platinum prices are well below their $1154 high that was hit in March of this year, the supply of platinum is rising whilst demand is struggling to recover. The lockdowns in China have slowed or stopped auto sector production causing the demand for platinum to fall, however, according to platinum's top supplier, Nornickel, the partial recovery of the global sector could offset the lower consumption in China. The market is expecting to see a surplus of Platinum at the end of the year. Platinum Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Easing supply concerns driving Wheat prices down As supply concerns ease, the price of wheat futures are falling. Russia said they would open safe corridors daily for forign ships to leave both Black Sea ports as well as Sea of Azov ports, which will allow commercial shipping to resume in the Ukraine after 3 months of fighting. In addition the Indian government announced an embargo on Wheat exports to try to guarantee food security and to discourage farmers from selling wheat on the private market at higher prices. Wheat Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline prices The prices of RBOB Gasoline have been rising amidst concerns around supply and the expected increasing demand. US President Joe Biden may limit US Gasoline exports in an attempt to decrease the prices in the US. RBOB Gasoline Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: XAUUSD Prices Rise As Investors Turn To Safer Assets, Cotton Prices, NGAS Prices Still Rising As Concerns Around Supply Continue Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com

Crude Oil steady, Gold Price (XAU/USD) Dips As US Dollar (USD) Rises | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley 26.05.2022 15:59

Oil markets slumber Oil prices had another comatose session by their standards, barely rising from the day before. Nevertheless, both Brent crude and WTI have held on to all their recent gains, suggesting the weaker side is the upside in prices for now. While China slowdown fears are receding in the minds of traders, for now, fears persist around the increasing tightness of the US diesel market, and I suspect not ruling out export controls has unnerved international markets, and rightly so. I expect prices to remain firm for the rest of the week, with the global data calendar fairly light. Brent crude rose 0.60% to USD 114.35 overnight, where it remains in an equally quiet Asian session. WTI rose 0.40% to USD 110.70, adding just 20 cents to USD 110.90 a barrel in Asia. Brent crude has resistance at USD 115.00 and USD 116.00 today, with support at USD 112.00. A rally through USD 116.00 could set up a retest test of my medium-term resistance at USD 120.00. â€‹ WTI is taking comfort from the White House stance and is sitting in a USD 108.00 to USD 112.00 a barrel range. Nevertheless, a topside breakout by Brent crude will drag WTI higher as well, allowing a test of the USD 115.00 to USD 116.00 resistance zone. Gold weakens on US dollar strength Gold fell by 0.70% to USD 1853.25 an ounce overnight, retreating another 0.45% to USD 1845.00 an ounce in Asia. As I have touched on before, the true test of gold’s underlying strength will be maintaining gains in the face of a US dollar rally. The fall by gold over the last 24 hours in the face of modest US dollar strength does not fill me with confidence. Further US dollar strength could see gold face one of its ugly downside shakeouts. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Gold has nearby support at USD 1842.00, followed by USD 1836.00 an ounce. Failure sees the possibility of a mini-capitulation by longs that could reach as far as USD 1780.00 an ounce. On the topside, gold has resistance at USD 1870.00, followed by USD 1886.00 an ounce, its 100-day moving average. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

The Gold Rally Is Continuing To Stall, This Could Be A Good Year For Crude Oil

(XAUUSD) Gold Prices Rose For Second Consecutive Week, Concerns Around Crude Oil Supply Continues To Drive Price, Soybean Prices Rising

Rebecca Duthie 27.05.2022 11:30

Summary: The potential for a dovish Fed later on in the year leaves investors seeking safety in gold. The EU is still trying to reach an agreement for the banning of Russian Crude. Tight Soybean supplies. Read next: Easing Concerns Around Supply Drives The Price Of Both Wheat And Platinum Down, RBOB Gasoline Continues To Rise XAUUSD futures rise Gold rose further on Friday as it hit its second consecutive weekly gain, the strength in Gold comes in the wake of a weakening US Dollar. The chances of the Federal Reserve Bank easing monetary policy later on in the year has left investors seeking gold as a hedge against future inflation, driving the price of gold up. XAUUSD Jun ‘22 Futures Price Chart Crude Oil prices continue to rise amidst supply concerns The price of Crude Oil traded above $114 per barrel on Friday. The past week for Crude has seen prices consistently rising amidst concerns over global supply. On Wednesday the EIA released data indicating that the US Crude inventories were lower than expected due to rising exports. In addition the EU is trying to negotiate with Hungary on the implementation of an oil embargo on Russia, with EU Council Charles Michel remaining confident that an agreement can be reached by May 30th. Crude Oil Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Soybean Futures rising Soybeans are facing a tight supply run at the moment, export demand is rising causing the price of soybeans to trade high. As the oil embargo in Indonesia is lited, a certain amount of soybean volume will be added to the domestic market. Soybean Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: Potential Frost Causing Concerns Around Coffee Supplies, Crude Oil Demand Is Expected To Rise, Palladium Price Falls Amidst Easing Concerns Around Supply And Demand Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com

COT Week 21 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculator bets mostly lower led by Corn & Soybean Oil

Invest Macro 28.05.2022 20:00

OPEC+ Meeting Takes Place This Week! BRENT Crude Oil Climbed Really High Last Week Reaching Over $119. Weaker US Dollar (USD) Let Metals Get Stronger | ING Economics

ING Economics 30.05.2022 08:24

Your daily roundup of commodities news and ING views Tank farm for storage of petroleum products in Volgograd, Russia Energy Oil finished last week off strongly. ICE Brent settled above US$119/bbl, which took its gains for the week to more than 6%. Tightness in the refined products market continues to prove supportive for crude oil prices, as healthy refinery margins should see refiners maximize their run rates. Last week, there were also reports that the US administration was talking to the domestic industry to see whether they could bring back shut refining capacity in order to help improve refined product supply. Over the weekend, EU diplomats failed to come to an agreement on the EU’s proposed ban on Russian oil ahead of a 2-day summit with EU leaders starting today. There are reports that despite concessions provided to Hungary, which would exclude oil that flows through the Druzhba pipeline from the ban, Hungary is still blocking the agreement. Hungary wants EU funding in order to help them increase pipeline capacity from Croatia and also for refiners to be able to switch to alternative crude. Diplomats are expected to meet ahead of the summit today, however, it’s unlikely that members come to an agreement when they meet, given that talks have not progressed enough. The latest positioning data show that speculators increased their net long positions in ICE Brent by 12,639 lots over the last reporting week, which left them with a net long of 197,072 lots. This is the largest position that speculators have held since early March. However, it is still some distance from the roughly 333k lots they held back in October last year. The move over the week was driven predominantly by fresh longs, with the gross long increasing by 8,831 lots. Given the move that we have seen in the market since last Tuesday, the current net-long position is likely to be even larger. OPEC+ are set to meet on Thursday to discuss their production policy for July. We continue to expect no change in the group’s approach and expect confirmation that they will increase output levels by a little over 400Mbbls/d over the month. However, as we have seen for several months now, it is unlikely that members will produce anywhere near their agreed output levels. Metals Base metals rebounded on Friday along with other risk assets. A weaker dollar last week offered a temporary boost to the metals complex. LME nickel jumped over 7% at one stage on Friday, which saw the market hit an intraday high of US$29,100/t (highest since May 9). Total open interest in the LME nickel market dropped to 161,884 contracts on Wednesday last week, the lowest since 2012. Over the weekend, Shanghai said it would remove ‘unreasonable curbs’ on businesses and manufacturers from 1 June. The city also unveiled fresh economic support measures. It is set to abolish the so-called whitelist, allowing more businesses to resume from 1 June; however, some doubt that workers will be able to leave their compounds to return to work from this week. Among the 50 policy measures announced by Shanghai officials, the city will cut some purchase taxes, issue more quotas for car plates, and subsidise electric vehicle purchases. These policy measures for Shanghai may provide some relief, but are unlikely to turn around the overall slowdown in demand. The focus will be on how quickly economic activity improves following the easing of restrictions. More importantly, the scale of stimulus is an important factor to keep an eye on. Major base metal inventories have remained in a downward trajectory in the China onshore market after logistics improved, and are still low compared to historical levels. This suggests that markets have a relatively smaller pile of metal to work with if business returns to normality. However, as market dynamics move back towards a favourable import arb, the scale of import flows remains to be seen. Agriculture CBOT corn saw speculators liquidating longs over the last reporting week with a pick-up in US corn plantings. CFTC data shows that money managers reduced their net long position by 48,242 lots over the last week to 291,469 lots. The move was predominantly driven by longs liquidating. Money managers reduced gross longs by 30,976 lots over the week, whilst increasing fresh shorts by 17,266 lots. The speculative net long in CBOT corn has now dropped to the lowest level in more than six months. Read this article on THINK TagsRussian oil ban Russia-Ukraine Refined product Nickel China Covid Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Tepid BoJ Stance Despite Inflation Surge: Future Policy Outlook

We Could Say High Prices Of Crude Oil, Metals And Other Commodities Are About Not Only Negative Effects, But Also About A Profit For Some People | Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank 30.05.2022 12:42

Summary: Commodities have seen hefty prices increases in the past two years, which is bad for inflation and for life in general but is one of very few asset classes where a profit can be made in very depressed markets.â€‹ It’s hardly news that the cost of living – or inflation – is going up at a rate which the world hasn’t seen for decades. Food is getting more expensive, electricity is going up, it is more costly to buy and build stuff. In short, everything you want to do and consume costs (a lot) more than it did a year ago.There is one area – or in finance lingo, asset class – which is the root cause of this situation, and it has politicians and economists scratching their heads to find solutions: commodities. Commodities are the basic input to everything we do. It covers energy production, raw materials, metals, food, etc.When you look at commodities from a societal point of view, there isn't a lot of good news:“In short, what happens in the commodity sector is troubling. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 24% on the first quarter and if you look at average annual returns it has almost doubled since 2020,” says Ole Hansen, Head of commodity strategy at Saxo. In this quote, Hansen points to something interesting when dealing with an asset class like commodities, because it affects both the financial markets, and day-to-day life. When investing in an index, which is up that much in such a short time, you would usually be celebrating, but it isn’t always a good thing for commodities to climb so high, so fast.“Commodities are the basic input for everything we do, which means that when they get more expensive, so does everything else. Commodities need to find a more stable level for consumers and companies alike to feel comfortable, which no one is now,” says Hansen.As Hansen describes, surging commodity prices can have grave effects on society at large especially in less wealthy parts of the world, and its solution can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. “Most people will have to wind back on their spending. This will cause an economic slowdown, which hurts, but unfortunately seems to be the only cure right now against high inflation,” he says.The other edge While commodities need to become more stable for its societal impact, the asset class remains an enticing investment opportunity in a market where it seems like it is almost the only one you can look for a profit, even if there’s an economic slowdown. This is due to the supply and demand dynamics we are experiencing right now.Central banks are hiking rates to kill – or slow – the demand side, which is yet another reason why companies and thus equities are struggling. This should, in theory, also push the prices of commodities down, but then let’s turn our heads towards the supply side.Here, especially the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the strict COVID-19 lockdowns in China, suppress the supply of many key commodities. This creates a dramatic imbalance between supply and demand, which means that even a global economic slowdown most likely wouldn’t bring it back to an equal footing.“If I had to pick one area to look for inspiration, it would be the metal industry. There’s a lot of amped up construction in China due to the lockdowns, which means that once they are lifted, the metal space could see a substantial increase in demand from them,” says Hansen.Queued up construction in China can push metal prices, which also could be a long play on the mining sector within equities."The equity market is probably the most difficult since the 2007-2009 financial crisis years due to a combined factor of persistently high inflation and equity valuation compression from higher interest rates. We believe that the world will be in a commodity super cycle and thus should be exposed to this through mining companies both short and long term. China's slowdown is just short-term noise. It changes nothing regarding mining companies over the coming years," says Peter Garnry, Head of Equity strategy.

5% for the US 10-Year Treasury Yield: A Realistic Scenario

S&P 500 (SPX) Rallied, So Did Nasdaq And Dow Jones (DJI), In Europe Sentiment Can Be Affected By Very High Crude Oil Price Caused And Russian Oil Ban | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley 30.05.2022 12:55

Asian markets rally on positive Wall Street and China hopes S&P 500, Nasdaq And Dow Jones US markets closed out the week on another positive note after US data alleviated inflation fears and thus, future Fed tightening, and showed strength among US consumers still. Realistically, after such a positive week, it would have taken a lot to knock the FOMO gnomes of Wall Street off their path of bottom-picking nirvana. The S&P 500 rallied by 2.48%, while the Nasdaq leapt by an impressive 3.33%, with the Dow Jones climbed by 1.76%. The rally has continued in Asia, with Nasdaq futures 0.90% higher, with S&P 500 futures up 0.40%, and Dow futures edging 0.10% higher. US OTC markets are closed for Memorial Day. End Of COVID Restrictions? Asia is also turning in a positive performance, following the impressive New York close, and boosted by hopes that China’s Beijing and Shanghai hubs are reopening from virus restrictions and a package of stimulus measures released by the Shanghai local government. Nikkei 225 And CSI 300 Japan’s Nikkei 225 has coat-tailed the Nasdaq 2.10% higher today, with South Korea’s Kospi gaining 1.25%, and Taipei rallying by 1.60%. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is a more cautious 0.30% higher, with the CSI 300 rising by just 0.40%. The ever-optimistic Hong Kong, however, had leapt 2.50% higher, boosted by hopes of an Evergrande bond deal. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News Metals In regional markets, Singapore is up just 0.20%, while Kuala Lumpur has fallen 0.25%, and Jakarta is 0.60% lower. A Goldman Sachs report suggesting metals prices have peaked is likely weighing on all three markets, as risk sentiment swings back to more growth-stock orientated markets. Bangkok has gained 0.65%, while Manila has rallied by 1.25%. Australian markets have also liked what they have seen with Wall Street and China, the ASX 200 and All Ordinaries climbing by 1.25% today. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Russian Oil Friday’s New York close and Asia’s rally today should be enough to lift European equity markets this afternoon, although the still simmering EU import ban on Russian oil and Brent crude above USD 120.00 a barrel will temper bullish animal spirits. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Oil Could Be Ready To Pop, The Bank Of England Market Pricing Is More Mixed

WTI And Brent (Crude Oil) Trade Really High, OPEC+ Is Expected Not To Support The Price. (XAUUSD) Gold Price Seems To Pausing And Resembling "The Calm Before The Storm" | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley 30.05.2022 14:54

Brent crude rises above USD 120.00 The disconnect between energy prices and optimism in equity markets continues today in Asia. On Friday, oil prices surged once again, driven by an unrelenting squeeze on refined products, notably diesel and gasoline, globally, with the US driving season about to begin in earnest. Brent crude rose by 1.63% to USD 119.20 a barrel on Friday, rallying another 0.70% to USD 120.05 this morning. WTI rose by 0.85% to USD 115.10 a barrel on Friday, rallying another 0.83% higher to USD 116.05 in Asia today. Markets pricing in peak virus in Beijing and Shanghai are behind the rally in oil prices today, with a China reopening likely leading to increased oil consumption. Unlike recent times, markets seem unconcerned about oil moving back to March highs, emphasising how much pent-up risk-sentiment demand there appears to be out there. We can expect no solace from OPEC+ on production increases on Thursday. The grouping cannot pump to meet its present quotas as it is, and a 430,000 bpd increase is all we can expect. Additionally, the EU Russian oil import ban is still a work in progress and if it gets over the line this week, expect supplies to tighten again. As such, the risks are now increasing of a move towards the post-Ukraine highs we saw in February. Both Brent crude and WTI are at the top of my expected medium-term ranges at USD 120.00 and USD 115.00 respectively. A weekly close above these levels would be a major signal indicating more gains ahead. Brent crude’s next technical resistance is at USD 124.00 a barrel, and then USD 132.00, with support at USD 116.00. WTI has resistance nearby at USD 116.70 a barrel, with nothing afterwards until USD 127.00 a barrel. Support is at USD 115.00 and USD 113.00 a barrel. Gold trades sideways Gold seems determined to bore traders to death after another inconclusive overnight range-trading session. It finished Friday 0.13% lower at USD 1853.00 an ounce, before gaining 0.44% to USD 186.75 an ounce in Asia today. Gold’s price action continues to suggest caution, with the US dollar sell-off not translating to any meaningful gold strength. If global risk sentiment turns lower, gold could quickly follow. Gold has nearby support at USD 1840.00, followed by USD 1836.00 an ounce. Failure sees the possibility of a mini-capitulation by longs that could reach as far as USD 1780.00 an ounce. Gold has resistance here at USD 1862.00, then USD 1870.00, followed by USD 1886.00 an ounce, its 100-day moving average. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Powell signals Fed needs to be nimble, Canada Inflation hits near 40-year high, bitcoin tries to hold USD20k

Some EU Governments Are Still In Favour Of Banning Russian Brent Crude Oil, Investors Turning To Silver As Demand For Safe-Haven Assets Rise, Corn Prices Fall Amidst Easing Supply Concers

Rebecca Duthie 30.05.2022 15:52

Summary: Lockdowns in China ease causing demand for Brent Crude to rise. Silver prices increase as market participants seek safe-haven assets. Supply concerns around corn are easing. read next (XAUUSD) Gold Prices Rose For Second Consecutive Week, Concerns Around Crude Oil Supply Continues To Drive Price, Soybean Prices Rising Brent Crude Oil prices continue to rise The combination of Beijing and Shanghai beginning to come out of Covid-19 restrictions over the weekend and the ongoing European discussions regarding banning crude oil imports from Russia are causing concerns around supply to tighten. On Monday and Tuesday an EU governments will use a summit to continue to argue in favour of an embargo on Russian crude. The prices of Crude oil are going into their sixth straight month of gains amidst the supply concerns, as demand begins to rise back up to pre-pandemic levels. Brent Crude Oil Price Chart Silver prices are still on the rise A weaker US Dollar continues to give room for the price of silver to rise. Amidst continuing geopolitical tensions and growing concerns regarding slower global growth, investors are turning more towards safe-haven assets. Silver is considered to be a hedge against inflation, the Fed is still expected to tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates further at their next two meetings. Silver Jul ‘22 Futures Prices Corn prices are falling The price of corn futures fell late in May, to the lowest value in almost six weeks amidst expectations of higher supply and the easing of trading restrictions between major producers. Beijing and Brazil reached an agreement to begin corn exports from Brazil to China, after years of talks. In addition, actual planting of corn exceeded market expectations. The easing of supply concerns is slowly driving the price of corn futures down. Corn Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com

Is Another Crude Oil Crisis Ahead Of Us!? Will Drivers Pay More For Fuel!? As Predicted As Russian Oil Gets Banned, Price Of Crude Rises! | ICM.COM

ICM.COM Market Updates 31.05.2022 09:50

Oil prices jumped after EU leaders reached an agreement late Monday to ban 90% of Russian crude by the end of the year. U.S. crude futures up 2.81% to $118.29 (Contracts for July) Brent crude futures up 0.93% to $122.80 (Contracts for July) U.S. crude up 2.84% to $115.42 (Contracts for August) Brent up 1.17% to $118.98 (Contracts for August) Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Extra Gains Of The WTI Crude Oil Appear On The Cards

Germany Meets Really High Inflation - How Will ECB And Euro (EUR) React? Bitcoin Has Increased, So Does Oil, DAX And FTSE | Swissquote

Swissquote Bank 31.05.2022 09:58

German inflation hit a fresh record high of 8.7% in May, above the 8.1% penciled in by analysts. The data gave a boost to the European Central Bank (ECB) hawks and helped the EURUSD extend gains to 1.0780. Crude oil extended rally as the European leaders finally announced their decision to partially ban the Russian oil. Can The EU Affect OPEC's Move? Bitcoin's Rally And people started asking, would the European decision to ban the Russian oil would impact the OPEC’s decision about production; would the OPEC nations pump more to replace the Russian oil for European exports? Elsewhere, the softish US yields help gold consolidate above 200-DMA, while other precious metals also gain, Bitcoin rallies above $31K and the US markets are back after a long-weekend break! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:25 German inflation hits record, revives ECB hawks 1:31 Europe announces to partially ban Russian oil, oil rallies 4:08 Go deeper: will EU decision affect OPEC strategy? 5:38 US LNG stocks extend rally 6:32 DAX, FTSE recover¨ 8:00 Precious metals update. Gold, platinum, palladium 9:07 Bitcoin rallies, but gains remain vulnerable Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

XAUUSD Prices Fall As The US Dollar Rebounds, Inflationary Pressures Driving Cotton Demand Down, NGAS Price Rising

Rebecca Duthie 31.05.2022 12:29

Summary: The US Dollar’s rebound and stronger treasury yields have caused the price of gold to fall. Cotton prices are falling due to decreasing demand and improved supplies. NGAS on the rise again. Read next: Some EU Governments Are Still In Favour Of Banning Russian Brent Crude Oil, Investors Turning To Silver As Demand For Safe-Haven Assets Rise, Corn Prices Fall Amidst Easing Supply XAUUSD price coming down off its recent recovery Gold prices began to rise late last week and on Monday, however, on Tuesday Gold prices fell in the wake of the US Dollar rebounding and stronger US Treasury yields. Gold has recovered some of the losses it faced earlier on in May due to the surging US Dollar. Concerns around a global recession and the chance of the Fed slowing or even stopping tightening monetary policy later on in the year has offered the precious metal some support. Gold Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart Cotton prices falling due to lessening supply concerns Cotton prices are trading around 10% less than their May high, this is due to the prospect of higher supplies thanks to favourable weather in the largest growing regions. More than half of the crop had been planted by May 22nd and was ahead of schedule by this time, therefore offering hope for solid yields. In conjunction, demand for cotton seems to be weakening amidst inflationary pressures. Cotton Jul’22 Futures Price Chart Natural Gas Futures prices Natural Gas prices continue to rise, reaching closer to the peak hit last week. The near 14 year high for Natural Gas came with increased demand and concerns around supply, the price fluctuations are due to decreased demand as the weather changes, robust demand and slow output. NGAS Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: Strong Investor Sentiment Toward The Euro Continues (EUR/USD), EUR/GBP Currency Pair, As China Ease Lockdowns The AUD Outlook Seems Positive (GBP/AUD, AUD/USD) Sources: tradingeconomics.com, finance.yahoo.com

What Did Support GDP? | Should Eurozone Worry!? Energy Prices May Weaken Production

EU Reaches An Agreement On The Banning Of Russian Crude Oil, Coffee Prices Rise, Palladium Prices Decline Along With Supply Concerns

Rebecca Duthie 01.06.2022 13:30

Summary: Crude Oil prices rise for sixth consecutive month. Coffee prices rise amidst supply concerns. Palladium prices fall along with demand Read next: XAUUSD Prices Fall As The US Dollar Rebounds, Inflationary Pressures Driving Cotton Demand Down, NGAS Price Rising WTI Crude oil prices rise WTI Crude Oil enters the month of June going on their sixth consecutive month seeing price gains. The most recent gain comes in the wake of China’s easing of Covid-19 lockdown restrictions and the European Union's decision to partially ban Russian crude oil imports. The European Union has finally reached an agreement on the banning of Russian oil imports, the current decision ended with pipeline imports being allowed but seaborne imports being banned. This will cause some issues around supply, however, this most recent ban could pave the way for other crude oil producers to pump more crude into the markets. WTI Crude Oil Price Chart Coffee futures prices rising Coffee futures are trading at their highest price since mid April amidst a strong outlook for dryer conditions for the top producer in Brazil. The market has fears around a lower production in Brazil due to the continuation of La Niña, which reduces rainfall in Central-America. In addition, Colombian coffee exports slipped by 18% year to year. There were also signs pointing towards smaller global coffee supplies falling by 0.1%. Coffee Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Palladium Futures Palladium prices have fallen by almost 40% below their all time high of $3180 the reduction in price comes from a fall in concerns around supply and demand remains low. Global palladium demand is expected to increase by only 3% in 2022 as covid lockdowns and continuing supply chain bottlenecks will likely delay a recover in the chip supply until 2023 at the very least, undermining car production around the world. Palladium Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: (HPQ) HP Inc. Earnings Beat Market Expectations Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com

Wheat Prices Enter June On A Four Week Low Platinum Prices Rising Again, RBOB Gasoline Prices Reach New High

Rebecca Duthie 02.06.2022 12:56

Summary: Wheat prices dropping as supply concerns ease. As China begins to lift covid-19 restrictions, demand for platinum is rising. RBOB gasoline prices rally in the wake of EU oil embargo. Read next: EU Reaches An Agreement On The Banning Of Russian Crude Oil, Coffee Prices Rise, Palladium Prices Decline Along With Supply Concerns Wheat prices reach their lowest in four weeks Chicago wheat futures reached their lowest in four weeks on Thursday, as commodity traders carefully monitor the possible maritime trade corridors for Ukrainian wheat and fertilizers. The Russian president, Putin said that Russia was willing to open safe corridors to allow foreign ships to leave the both the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov ports, which would allow commercial shipping of Ukrainian grains after three months of war in the country, should western countries lift sanctions. In the United States there are higher projections for wheat in the future and in addition, the wheat prices remain supported thanks to India’s decision to impose a wheat embargo in an attempt to guarantee food security. Chicago Wheat Futures Price Chart Platinum Prices increased As China begins to re-open their economy after their covid-19 lockdown restrictions, the demand for platinum is increasing. Although the global outlook for metal use in car manufacturing will decline overall in 2022, concerns around supply and demand are still driving the price fluctuations of Platinum. Platinum Futures Price Chart RBOB gasoline RBOB Gasoline prices have risen to a new high at the start of the summer season. The latest rally comes in the wake of the European Union implementing a ban of seaborne oil imports from Russia, creating further concerns around supplies. RBOB Gasoline Futures Price Chart Read next: XAUUSD Prices Fall As The US Dollar Rebounds, Inflationary Pressures Driving Cotton Demand Down, NGAS Price Rising Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com

COT Week 22 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Positions mostly lower led by Corn & Sugar

Invest Macro 04.06.2022 21:40

Saudi Arabia Hike Brent Crude Oil Prices, Demand For Safe-haven Assets Is Supporting Silver Prices, Corn Prices At 8 Week Lows

Rebecca Duthie 06.06.2022 13:12

Summary: Saudi Arabia hiked their crude oil prices for July. Hopes of higher corn supplies thanks to hopeful USDA reports and easing trade restrictions between the major producers. Increased demand for Silver as a safe-haven asset drives the prices up. Read next: Saudi Arabia Indicates Plans To Increase Their Oil Output (EUR/USD), ECB Plans To Start Tightening Monetary Policy Still Set For July (EUR/GBP), (USD/JPY, USD/CHF) Brent Crude oil prices surge as Saudi Arabia Increase prices On Monday Saudi Arabia hiked their crude oil prices for July, driving the price of Brent crude oil up to almost $121 per barrel. This move tightened global supplies even after OPEC+ agreed to increase its output at a faster pace in the coming months. The premium for the barrels heading to the U.S remained steady, whilst the premiums for the barrels heading for Asia and Northwest European countries were raised by Saudi Arabia. Despite OPEC+ promises to increase its output by 50% than previously planned, there are still doubts around whether or not they can meet the demand as member countries are struggling to meet the demand. The price rise and the demand and supply concerns are happening in the peak of the U.S driving season and increased demand as China comes out of its Covid-19 lockdowns, and their economy starts again. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart Silver prices rise again The price of silver reached the highest in a month, this comes in the wake of increased demand for the safe-haven asset. The increased demand is being caused by continuing geopolitical tensions, inflation and persistent concerns around slowing global growth. Silver Jul ‘22 Price Chart Corn prices low Corn futures are trading at eight week lows on Monday amidst strong hopes of higher supplies thanks to hopeful USDA reports and easing trade restrictions between the major producers. With planting progress strong and expectations for exports to resume from the Ukraine, prices are dropping. In addition, Brazil and Beijing came to a conclusion regarding beginning exports from Brazil to China. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com

(XAUUSD) Gold Should Be Bullish, NGAS Reaches Highest Price Since August 2008, Cotton Crop Planting Is Ahead Of Schedule

Rebecca Duthie 07.06.2022 13:41

Summary: Gold prices rising amidst market uncertainty. Natural gas futures rose to their highest price since August 2008. Demand for cotton is softening due to inflationary pressures and rising prices. Read next: Saudi Arabia Hike Brent Crude Oil Prices, Demand For Safe-haven Assets Is Supporting Silver Prices, Corn Prices At 8 Week Low XAUUSD expected to rise Gold prices rose during early trading on Tuesday, this rally is expected to last as projections of an economic slowdown pave the way for higher gold prices. A strong mix of talks of a global recession, decades-high inflation and geopolitical tensions should increase the demand for gold due to its safe-haven properties. The rise in gold comes after two days of declining prices thanks to a stronger US Dollar and rising treasury yields. XAUUSD Price Chart Natural Gas facing declining production On Tuesday Natural gas futures rose to their highest price since August 2008, this comes in the wake of higher international demand and declining production. As the northern hemisphere goes into summer, the need for cooling has strengthened which has been a driver for rising prices in the short term. On a global scale, the war in the Ukraine has caused a global energy shortage. The European Union is calling on the U.S to increase their exports to Europe to help lessen the region's reliance on Russian gas. NGAS Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Demand for Cotton softens Cotton prices have fallen amidst hopes of higher supplies due to favourable weather conditions in the top growing regions. Cotton crop planting is ahead of schedule giving hope around strengthening yields. In addition, it seems that demand for cotton is softening due to inflationary pressures and rising prices. Cotton Oct ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com

Oil clutching to US 120, gold drifting | Oanda

Craig Erlam 07.06.2022 18:39

Oil struggling to hold above USD 120 Oil is continuing to struggle around USD 120 on Tuesday, with Brent and WTI very slightly lower. We’ve seen USD 120 broken on a few occasions over the last week but each time it’s been quickly repelled in a sign of momentum starting to run a little thin. The fundamentals remain bullish for oil prices as China continues to reopen and the OPEC+ “production hike” does little to alleviate the tightness in the market. Still, it’s been a very strong run over the last month, with the price up more than 20% from the May lows. We could potentially see some profit-taking in the short-term but it’s hard to imagine it being too severe, barring significant growth downgrades or a surge in Covid cases in China. Gold consolidation continues As has so often been the case in recent weeks, gold is continuing to fluctuate around USD 1,850 today and showing little sign of a burst in either direction. It struggled once more around USD 1,870 on Friday, reinforcing it as a key area of resistance to the upside, while USD 1,830 continues to be the first line of support below. We may have to wait for the inflation data at the end of the week for an interesting move in either direction. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil clutching to US 120, gold drifting - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Coffee Supplies Remain Tight, Supply and Demand Concerns Are Easing For Palladium , WTI Crude Oil Nearing March High

Rebecca Duthie 08.06.2022 13:39

Summary: Markets await the US crude inventory report. Disappointing Brazilian coffee supplies. Expectations that the palladium market will close in balance at the end of 2022 Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold Should Be Bullish, NGAS Reaches Highest Price Since August 2008, Cotton Crop Planting Is Ahead Of Schedule WTI Crude Oil prices rising as supplies tighten further On Wednesday, WTI Crude oil futures prices are nearing the near 14 year high that was hit in March, this price rise comes in the wake of expected increase in demand as China comes out of lockdowns, tight global supplies and the summer driving season in the US. The markets are also awaiting a report that will indicate the official US crude inventories, which is expected to have fallen, highlighting the tightness in crude supplies, globally. The CEO of global commodities trader, Trafigura said that the energy markets were in a “critical” state due to sanctions placed on Russian oil inlight of their invasion of the Ukraine which has just built on already tight supplies which were created by years of under-investment. WTI Crude Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Coffee prices volatile amidst changing supply and demand concerns Coffee futures prices hit a peak on June 1st amidst general real strength and concerns over tight supplies. Coffee dealers indicated to traders that the market is well supported by limited flow from Brazil and Central America, the top Brazilian grower lagging on its historical average. The concerns around coffee supplies and demand are driving the futures prices. Coffee Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Palladium prices are normalising Palladium prices have been falling consistently over the past week due to easing concerns around both demand and supply. The world's largest palladium producer, Nornickel, expects the palladium market to close in balance at the end of 2022. The company also promised they would continue producing in order to meet its obligations, despite logistic obstacles. In addition, global supply demand is expected to increase by only 3% in 2022 as Covid-19 lockdowns and continuing supply chain bottlenecks will likely delay recovery of chip supplies until at least 2023, thus undermining car production. Palladium Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com

Concerns Around Increasing Demand and Tightening Supply For Platinum, RBOB Gasoline, West Is Unlikely To Ease Sanctions On Russia Causing Wheat Supply Concerns Persist

Rebecca Duthie 09.06.2022 11:39

Summary: Sanctions on Russia and protests in South Africa are causing problems for platinum exports. As shortage concerns continue, the price of wheat futures continue to rise. Read next: Coffee Supplies Remain Tight, Supply and Demand Concerns Are Easing For Palladium , WTI Crude Oil Nearing March High Platinum faces a future of tight supplies Platinum futures rose above $1000 per tonne during the trading week, the highest price in over 2 months. The price rise comes in the wake of concerns around tight supplies and the demand recovery for the biggest platinum consumer, China. China’s platinum consumption is due to increase as the government lifts most of the Covid-19 health restrictions in Shanghai and announced support measures to help boost the economy. In addition, supply chain issues are persisting as the war in Eastern Europe continues and more sanctions are being placed on Russia, the top exporter of platinum. South Africa’s production of platinum is also set to fall amidst risks of extended strikes, as workers continue to protest for wage-negotiations. Platinum Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart West unlikely to ease sanctions on Russia, wheat supply concerns persist As shortage concerns continue, the price of wheat futures continue to rise. The expectations of higher trading activity from Ukraine remained low as the west is unlikely to relax the sanctions on Russia, meaning Putin is unlikely to open Ukrainian ports and allow trade. Investors are remaining alert to any possible changes in India's export ban that was passed in May, following news that India’s government may allow exporters to ship some of the wheat that is currently stuck in cargos. Wheat Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline Prices of RBOB gasoline continue to rise as the concerns around energy supplies persist, globally. The continuing sanctions on Russia, is causing supply insecurity as the US enters into its summer driving season, driving demand up. RBOB Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold Should Be Bullish, NGAS Reaches Highest Price Since August 2008, Cotton Crop Planting Is Ahead Of Schedule Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com

(XAUUSD) Gold Prices Falling In The Run-Up To US Inflation Data Release, NGAS Prices Fall But Remain Elevated, Coffee Prices

Rebecca Duthie 10.06.2022 11:12

Summary: US inflation data should offer the market guidance on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike timeline. Natural gas futures prices dropped on Thursday as investors reacted positively to information from the EIA. Coffee futures prices remain supported by limited supplies and general real strength. Read next: Concerns Around Increasing Demand and Tightening Supply For Platinum, RBOB Gasoline, West Is Unlikely To Ease Sanctions On Russia Causing Wheat Supply Concerns Persist (XAUUSD) Gold prices falling as US Dollar strengthens Gold futures prices eased on Friday in the wake of a strengthening US Dollar and rising Treasury yields weighed on the safe-havens appeal in the run-up to the release of US inflation data that should offer the market guidance on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike timeline. The Fed is set to implement two more 50 basis point interest rate hikes at both its June and July meetings, following a move similar to the one in May, which has recently put pressure on gold. Meanwhile, global economic outlook risks that have arisen from the war in the Ukraine, persisting supply chain disruptions, high commodity prices and rising borrowing costs are all factors that are offering gold prices support. XAUUSD Aug ‘22 Futures Price Chart NGAS futures supported by rising demand and tight supplies Natural gas futures prices dropped on Thursday as investors reacted positively to information from the EIA showing that the natural gas storage is built primarily in line with expectations. NGAS prices faced heavy pressure earlier in the trading week after an explosion at the Freeport oil and gas export terminal in Texas, which is set to leave fuel supplies stranded in the domestic market despite the soaring international demand. Still, NGAS prices remained high this week amidst record demand for power in Texas, a fall in output and an intense rally for NGAS as Russia’s war on Ukraine sends energy markets scrambling. NGAS Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Coffee is supported by general real strength Coffee futures prices remain supported by limited supplies and general real strength. Coffee dealers indicated that the market remains well supported by a limited flow from both Central America and Brazil, with Brazil, who is the top harvester and grower, lagging their historical average. Coffee Sep ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingecnomics.com

Crypto Focus: Many of the Top 10 Coins Remaining Heavily Range-Bound for Another Week

8 eightcap 10.06.2022 12:15

Well, it was another week of ranges traders, as we saw a few moves by both sides, but the picture remains relatively the same, with many of the top 10 coins remaining heavily range-bound for another week. BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB, and Doge are looking quite similar as traders continue to look for that reason to break the deadlock. Solana looked like it was trying to get a move higher going yesterday, but that was cut down into Thursday’s NY session. For now, it looks like the smart move will be to continue to sit if you’re long-term and stay on the lines if you’re a short-term trader. Until we see a shift in momentum, it could continue to be death by one thousand cuts if you continue to try and play the mini breakouts. It’s not to say we didn’t see some movement this week. ADA, a member on the top 10, did trade up to 20% higher before the fade set in yesterday. For now, ADA is in a minor uptrend, but we want to see 67 beaten to resume thinking that buyers are flat out in control. Other movers in the top 60 have been Helium +36% and THETA +12.2%. In the Top 25, ChainLink has seen a solid seven days up 23.4%. In other news, the SEC has stated that BTC and ETH are commodities. It’s going to be hard to get delivery of those. The SEC is also set to investigate the recent TerraUSD crash. Once again, we are going to end with an index to gauge the overall mood we see on the boards at present. It’s a very clear picture at the moment with the CRYPTO25 index as the price remains hemmed in its range between 11,250 and 9860. Recent price action has started to form a squeeze but that might just produce another mini-break that remains held between the range high and low. We are now at a point where we are looking for a high momentum break, either higher or lower, to set some direction. The post Crypto Focus: Many of the Top 10 Coins Remaining Heavily Range-Bound for Another Week appeared first on Eightcap.

COT Week 23 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Positions mostly higher lead by Soybean Meal & Live Cattle

Invest Macro 12.06.2022 15:46

India's RBI Keeps Repo Rate Unchanged Amid Tomato-Driven Inflation Surge

Brent Crude Oil Prices, Silver Prices Hit Lowest Price In Four Weeks, Corn Prices Rise Amid Supply Concerns

Rebecca Duthie 13.06.2022 12:48

Summary: Rising covid cases in China and 40-year high US Inflation. The global economic outlook remains dim due to the rising borrowing costs, the war in Ukraine, high commodity prices and ongoing supply disruptions. Failed talks between Russia and Ukraine puts corn supplies under pressure. Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold Prices Falling In The Run-Up To US Inflation Data Release, NGAS Prices Fall But Remain Elevated, Coffee Prices Brent Crude prices fall for third session Brent crude oil futures prices have fallen on Monday for their third session as investors have been monitoring the covid situation in China and have remained concerned that rising inflation may hinder growth and negatively impact the demand for oil. Major cities in China are fighting rising covid-19 cases with officials warning of “ferocious” Covid spread in Beijing. In addition, U.S inflation hit a 40-year high of 8.6% last month, which increases the likelihood of more aggressive interest rate hikes from the FED. On Saturday US Fuel prices went above $5 per gallon, extending the surge in fuel costs that is driving rising inflation. Goldman Sachs indicated on Friday that energy prices needed to increase further before achieving a destruction in demand that is sufficient for market rebalancing. Brent Crude Oil Price Chart Silver prices reaches its lowest level in 4 weeks Investors' worries around the global economic outlook and a more hawkish attitude from the Federal Reserve have been strengthening, pushing silver prices down to its lowest level in four weeks. The global economic outlook remains dim due to the rising borrowing costs, the war in Ukraine, high commodity prices and ongoing supply disruptions. The Fed is due to continue tightening its monetary policy during the coming week after US inflation reached 41-year highs during May, in addition the ECB and RBA have also chosen a more hawkish path as inflation shows no signs of peaking. Silver Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn Prices rising amidst concerns around supply. Corn prices reached nearly eight week highs in the wake of new concerns around grain supplies. Talks failed between two of the major corn suppliers, Russia and the Ukraine around the resuming of Ukrainian exports despite the Turkish efforts to negotiate a safe passage for grain stuck at the Black Sea Ports. Russian President Putin said free shipment depended on an end to sanctions on Russia. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com

Gold (XAUUSD) Prices Are Falling, Expectations Of Cooling NGAS Demand, Cotton’s Demand Weakening

Rebecca Duthie 14.06.2022 11:32

Summary: Gold prices are under pressure from a rallying US Dollar. NGAS prices have dropped as expectations of cooling demand strengthened as the summer season approaches. Inflationary pressures and re-imposed Chinese lockdowns vs Cotton prices Read next: Brent Crude Oil Prices, Silver Prices Hit Lowest Price In Four Weeks, Corn Prices Rise Amid Supply Concerns XAUUSD prices falling in the wake of broad market sell-off On Tuesday Gold futures are trading at around four-week lows after falling nearly 3% during Monday's trading session. Gold prices remain under pressure from a rallying US Dollar and Treasury yields as investors are bracing themselves for more aggressive monetary policy tightening from the Federal Reserve Bank. Aggressive interest rate hikes have also instilled fears of a recession in the US economy which drove further selling and forced liquidation across the financial markets, including with gold. XAUUSD Price Chart Natural Gas demand falling as the summer season approaches Natural gas prices dropped in the past two trading sessions in the wake of investors' expectations of cooling demand strengthened as the summer season approaches. In addition, a recent explosion at a major Texas LNG terminal has made room for more natural gas to enter the market, due to the facility being offline for at least another 3 weeks. The extra supply in the market could bridge the gap between the current inventory levels and the 5-year average, which has been one of the driving forces behind the quarters natural gas rally. NGAS Futures Price Chart Demand weakening for Cotton Cotton futures prices are trading near 2-month lows due to expectations of higher supply and weaker demand. Cotton demand is expected to decrease due to inflationary pressures and the largest consumer, China re-imposes covid-19 lockdowns. Cotton Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com

The movie that changed futures trading once and for all

Purple Trading 14.06.2022 08:01

The movie that changed futures trading once and for all There is more than dozen of films about financial markets. However, there is only one that had such an impact that it led to a legislative change in the commodity futures market. Which movie are we talking about and what changes it introduce in regards to commodity trading? Read on! Holywood’s fascination with financial markets Holywood is no stranger to depicting the world of financial markets. The subject became particularly attractive in the 1980s, when it became clear that market capitalism was more viable economic model than central planning of the Eastern Bloc, resulting in many films set in the stock market environment, majority of which focusing on Wall Street. However, only one of these films has managed to leave a mark in the memory of viewers as well as in law textbooks. Trading Places - a probe into the world of commodity trading Brothers Mortimer and Randolp Duke are bored billionaires who own a commodities trading brokerage firm. One day, as a part of somewhat cynical bet, they decide to swap the lives of a young and promising businessman, Louis Winthorpe III (Dan Aykroyd), and a street hustler, Billy Ray Valentine (Eddie Murphy). They want to crush the dreams of the former while helping the latter to become familiar in the world of financial markets. From today's perspective, the film is a unique probe into the workings of the financial markets before they were heavily computerised. In addition to the brilliant scenes in which are the Duke brothers explaining to Billy Valentine how commodities trading works, we also get a glimpse behind the scenes at the New York Board of Trade, where commodities are traded (climactic trading scenes were actually filmed there). The bulk of the plot and the main storyline then revolves around the trading of Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice (FCOJ), specifically the futures contracts of this commodity. Eddie Murphy rule This rule, officially titled "Section 136 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Transparency and Accountability Reform and Consumer Protection Act, under Section 746" (but commonly referred to as "the Eddie Murphy rule"), prohibits the misuse of internal government information for the purpose of trading in the commodities markets. No one likes spoilers, so if you haven't seen this movie, we won't give away the plot and the denouement of the final scene of the entire movie. We'll just mention that shorting of FCOJ futures plays an important role here. In fact, so important, that this scene is reportedly often reference by traders on the New York Stock Exchange. Figure 1: The final scene of the film that initiated the inception of "Eddie Murphy rule" (source IMDb.com) Trading FCOJ futures today Although nowadays you don't see crowded rooms full of white collar men and women trying to buy low and sell high, FCOJ futures trading still exists. The only main difference is that rooms and phones have been replaced by computer screens and cubicles. Also, virtually anyone can trade today. If you are interested in trying out CFD trading of FCOJ futures, at Purple Trading we have recently introduced this instrument to our trader platforms. Just like our heroes of Trading Places, you can short (and long) and potentialy profit from both favourable and unfavourable market situations. The only difference is that you won't be able to use government information to do so, because Eddie Murphy Rule wouldn't allow you to.

WCU: Commodities drop as inflation battle heats up | Saxo Bank

Ole Hansen 17.06.2022 15:22

Summary: The commodity sector traded lower in a week where central banks took centre stage after several rate hikes were announced in an ongoing effort to curb runaway inflation. Most notably the 75 basis point hike from the US FOMC, a strong move that raised the prospect of this action also hurting global growth, and with that demand for commodities. Responding to these developments, the Bloomberg Commodity Index recorded its biggest weekly loss in three months, with all sectors (apart from grains) suffering setbacks. Central banks took centre stage this past week after they announced rate hikes in an ongoing effort to curb runaway inflation. The 75-basis point rate hike – and promises of more to follow – announced by the FOMC on Wednesday, added to an ongoing rout in global stocks and bonds. In fact, global equities were headed for their steepest weekly decline in two years after the SNB (Swiss National Bank) and BoE (Bank of England) joined in, thereby adding to concerns that tighter monetary policies could undermine the post-Covid global economic recovery.The price recent price actions and changes seen in bonds and stocks have gone straight to the history books. An example being the S&P 500 which, in five out of the last seven trading days, has seen more than 90% of its stocks decline. Since 1928, we have not seen such an overwhelming display of selling. Together with the rout in Cryptos and blockchains, this was indeed a week where investors had trouble finding a haven, with some commodities being the exception. Global growth worries helped push the Bloomberg Commodity index to its biggest weekly loss in three months, with all sectors (apart from grains) suffering setbacks. The most notable decline was seen in the energy sector after a prolonged outage at a major LNG (Liquid Natural Gas) plant triggered a selloff in US natural gas, with more being available for domestic consumption. Inadvertently, the disruption in US gas supplies to Europe and Russia turning down the taps to Germany and Italy, saw European gas prices jump by more than 50%. A development which, together with already record high prices for diesel and gasoline, once again highlight Europe as the epicentre of growth concerns – mostly stemming from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, crude oil and fuel products refused to be dragged into the narrative of lower growth – leading to lower demand and lower prices. The current level of market tightness driven by supply issues is simply too big of a factor to ignore. As a result, we are seeing low availability of fuels into the peak summer demand season. Along with this, we are seeing a continued surge in the margins refineries earn from their production of fuels, especially diesel – the fuel that keeps the world and economies on the move. Being such an important input to the global economy, a small weekly loss amid rising growth fears from aggressive central bank rate hikes highlights the current predicament of tight supplies, driven by years of lower investments. These have been caused by historically bad returns, high volatility and uncertainty about future demand, ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) and the green transformation. Several OPEC+ members, for various reasons, included those mentioned are close to being maxed out. With spare capacity being increasingly concentrated among a few Middle East producers, the prospect for a continued rise in demand over the coming years will be challenging.Sanctions against Russia and other multiple disruptions have led to the OPEC+ group trailing its own production target by more than 2.5 million barrels per day. The risk of even tighter markets was highlighted by the IEA (International Energy Agency) in their monthly update when it said that world oil supply will struggle to meet demand in 2023. A post-Covid resurgent Chinese economy and tighter sanctions on Russia being the main reasons and, despite emerging growth clouds, the Paris-based agency still expect demand to accelerate by 2.2 million barrels per day to 101.6 million barrels per day, only 0.3 million barrels per day above a recent forecast from the US Energy Information Administration.Following several failed attempts to break resistance in the $125 per barrel area, Brent instead went looking for support at lower prices. However, once again, the setback proved very shallow, with support being found ahead of $115 – a previous resistance-turned-support level.Industrial metals suffered a fresh setback as the Bloomberg Industrial Metal Spot Index hit a fresh low for the year – down 28.5% since the March record peak. The peak came just before Covid-19 outbreaks in China (the world’s top consumer of metals) helped trigger a sharp reversal. Between May and early June, the index went through a small recovery phase as China began lifting Covid-related restrictions, thereby boosting the prospect for growth initiatives. However, renewed lockdowns in Shanghai, the prospect of restrictions potentially not being lifted until next year as well as renewed focus on a central bank-driven global growth reversal helped send the sector sharply lower this week.Aluminium dropped to an 11-month low after US data stoked recession fears. This was while copper drifted lower towards key support in the $4 per pound ($8900 per tons) area, thereby setting up the potential for a challenge at a level from where prices have bounced on several occasions during the past fifteen months. As long as inventory levels in exchange monitored warehouses continue to fall, as opposed to rising given the current softness, we maintain our long held bullish view on the direction of the sector.A break in copper below the mentioned levels may trigger a temporary downward push which, in our opinion and using Fibonacci’s retracement numbers, could trigger a downward extension to $3.86 or in a worst-case scenario drop of around 12% to $3.50. Source: Saxo Group Precious metals: Gold and silver traded lower this week but well above levels that otherwise could be expected, given the adverse movements seen across other markets – most notably the dollar and US treasury yields both rising in response to the FOMC 75 basis point rate hike. However, as we highlighted in our most recent update gold has increasingly been showing signs of disconnecting from its normal strong inverse correlation with US real yields. Based on ten-year real yields at 0.65%, up from –1% at the beginning of the year, some will argue that gold trades too expensive by around 300 dollars.While rising dollar and yields in recent weeks have acted as a drag on gold, thereby raising discussions about its inflation hedging credentials, it is safe to say that other supporting drivers are currently at play. The most important being the risk of current central bank actions driving a hard landing, meaning that a US recession could emerge before inflation is being brought under control – thereby creating a period of stagflation, periods which historically has been bullish for gold.We believe that hedges in gold against the rising risk of stagflation, traders responding to the highest level of inflation in 40 years and turmoil in stocks and cryptos are some of the reasons why gold has not fallen at the pace dictated by rising real yields. With that in mind, we are watching what investors do (not what they are saying) through the ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) flows. During the past week, total holdings in bullion-backed ETFs have seen a small decline of less than 0.25% – again, a development highlighting investor maintaining exposure to offset the tumultuous conditions seen across other markets and sectors.Our long held bullish view on gold and silver has been strengthened by developments this past week. We still see the potential for gold hitting a fresh record high during the second half, as growth slows and inflation continues to remain elevated. The weekly chart shows that if $1,780 support is broken, there is no strong support before around $1,670 while a daily close above $1,880 is needed to change the current rangebound market behavior. Source: Saxo Group Source: WCU: Commodities drop as inflation battle heats up | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Coffee Prices Rising Amidst Tight Supply Concerns, WTI Oil Facing Its First Weekly Decline Since Mid-April, Platinum Prices At 6 Week Low

Rebecca Duthie 17.06.2022 16:01

Summary: WTI crude futures price dropped on Friday, heading for their first weekly decline since mid-April. Concerns around dryer weather conditions in certain areas of Brazil and smaller output in Columbia. Platinum prices reached their lowest in 6 weeks. Read next: Gold (XAUUSD) Prices Are Falling, Expectations Of Cooling NGAS Demand, Cotton’s Demand Weakening WTI Oil prices declining in the wake of rising consumer prices WTI crude futures price dropped on Friday, heading for their first weekly decline since mid-April, in the wake of a highly uncertain outlook for global growth and fuel demand following numerous interest rate hikes around the world this week that took a toll on the markets. The International Energy Agency warned on Wednesday that the combination of soaring energy prices and weakening economic forecasts dimmed the outlook for future demand. In addition, investors watched the supply tightness for WTI crude after the US announced sanctions on Iran. This added to concerns around production shortfalls among OPEC members and disruptions caused by unrest in Libya and Russia’s war in Ukraine. WTI Oil Price Chart Concerns around coffee supplies. Coffee prices rose amidst concerns around tight supplies in Brazil and a softer dollar. Brazil is behind on their coffee harvest, having harvested only 28% as of June 14th. In addition, there were also concerns around dryer weather conditions in certain areas of Brazil and smaller output in Columbia. Coffee Futures Price Chart Platinum demand remains subdued Platinum prices reached their lowest in 6 weeks on Friday in the wake of rising US treasury yields which followed higher than expected US CPI inflation data, driving the demand for platinum lower. In addition the demand for the metal is expected to remain low from top consumer China as it re-imposed Covid-19 restrictions, just weeks after easing in major cities as the country saw a fresh outburst of new infections. Platinum Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com

COT Week 24 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Positions mostly lower led by Sugar & Cocoa

Invest Macro 18.06.2022 14:18

The Commodities Feed: Oil trades softer

Energy: Oil edges lower

Focusing On US CPI, Fed, Commodities and Bank Of Japan - Saxo Market Call

Many Would Want To Know The Near Future Of S&P 500

COT Soft Commodities Speculators push Soybeans bullish bets higher for 9th time in 10 weeks

S&P 500 Chart - There's A Big Red Candle On The Right Hand Side

Price Of Gold Goes Up! Heading To Two Thousand Dollars?

Will Oil (BRENT) Call For A Oxygen Cylinder? It Climbed Really High...

WTI pulls back sharply from Monday’s multi-year highs near $96.00, back to the $91.00s as geopolitical risk premia eases

Mean Reversion

Stumbling Again

Bearish Turn Coming

Our Attention Should Be Drawn To Fed As Well, An Increase Of Interest Rate Is Likely To Come

COT Soft Commodities Speculators drop Sugar bullish wagers to 91-week low

Crypto Charts - BTC Monthly, Weekly, Daily Chart

Let‘s Try Again

How Did Markets Reacted To The Latest Events In The Eastern Europe?

It Begins

COT Soft Commodities Speculators pushed their Corn bullish bets higher this week

BRENT Nears $95, SWIFT Had Been Blocked, XAU And USD Are Likely To Stand Strong Amid Tensions

S&P 500 (SPX) And Credit Markets With Moves Up Finally, Bitcoin (BTC) Seems To Be Vigilant

Bitcoin (BTC) To US Dollar (USD) And BTCUSD/XAUUSD Shown In The Charts

Told You, Risk On

Real Assets, Bonds and New Profits

Markets Situation, Federal Reserve, Crude, EURJPY, Gazprom And More - "The Trade Off" Is Here!

PPI Of The Euro Area Is 30.6% Higher Than At The Same Time The Year Before

Surging Commodities

Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD consolidates just below $25.50 eyeing breakout to fresh multi-month highs

Back to Risk-Off

Crude Oil Price (BRENT And USOIL) Hit 14-Year-High. Ca. +9% On Opening

S&P 500 Is Likely Recovering, Gold (XAUUSD), Copper And Crude Oil (WTI) Close To Out Of The Park Play

The Swing Overview - Week 9

COT Soft Commodities Speculators push their Corn bullish bets to 42-week high

Is It Too Late To Begin Adapting To Higher Volatility In The Market?

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 1/3/2022

Crude Oil Climbs High. Is It Enough to Enjoy a Better View?

XAUUSD Chart And Bitcoin Charts - BTC/USDT And Bitcoin Vs Gold Chart

Summarised Fluctuations Of Gold, Crude Oil, Bitcoin And Rouble Since The Russia-Ukraine War Started (with chart)

S&P 500 (SPX) Plunges, Metals And Crude Oil Prices Go Up

Ukraine’s Defense Shines ‒ and So Does Gold

Stocks rebound slightly as hopes of a Russia-Ukraine deal increase

Ringing the Bell

Not Passing Smell Test

The War Is on for Two Weeks. How Does It Affect Gold?

Economic Indicators Of Great Britain Released

Why lira is experiencing pressure now

Now, That‘s Better

COT Soft Commodities Speculators drive their Sugar bullish bets sharply higher

DAX (GER 40) And FTSE100 (UK100) Has Increased, Crude Oil Price And Price Of Gold Declines

Credit Markets Keeps Downward Move, S&P 500 (SPX) Trades Lower Than Usual, Bitcoin (BTC) Price Is... Quite Stable (Sic!)

Are Current Market Cycles Similar To The GFC Of 2007–2009?

Is It Time for Brent and WTI Crude Oil Futures to Correct Lower?

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 8/3/2022

XAUUSD Decreases, Russia-Ukraine Conflict Remains, Fed Decides

S&P 500, Crude Oil And Credit Markets Decrease... Only Bitcoin Price Remains "The Same"

Snowball‘s Chance in Hell

Oil Prices Keep Falling. Is It Time to Get Long on Black Gold?

AMC Stock Price: AMC Entertainment spikes 8% on Wednesday

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Has Increased Significantly Yesterday

Interaction Between Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) And Fed's Interest Rate Decision

S&P 500 (SPX) - It Looks Like Fed Decision Was Needed To Go Up

"Boring" Bitcoin (BTC) And Gaining S&P 500 (SPX). Crude Oil Price Chart Shows A Green Candle At The Right Hand Side,

Soft Commodities Speculator’s Soybean Meal bullish bets rise for 7th week to 197-week high

Price Of Crude Oil And Price Of Gold Crosses Each Other

S&P 500 (SPX) Up, Crude Oil Up, Credit Markets Up, Bitcoin Price Oops...

Hawkish Fed „Surprise“

March 22nd, 2022, Crypto Chartbook

Bitcoin Price Hits $42k, ETH And AVAX Have Decreased, Polkadot (DOT) Gained

What Will Be The Impact Of Rising Rates On Stocks & Commodities?

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/3/2022

Soft Commodities Speculators raise Corn bullish bets higher for 5th week, to 46-week high

Volatility Retreats As Stocks & Commodities Rally

Natural Gas News - What Is The Market's Reaction To The Ongoing Russia-Ukraine Conflict?

COT Soft Commodities Speculators raise Cocoa bullish bets to 5-week high

Commodities Speculators push their Sugar bullish bets to 15-week high

Coffee Futures Have Gone Up, Black Gold Price Decreased. Financial Dictionary - What Are Commodities?

Rising Yields, Plunging Stockmarkets. What About Commodities And Inflation? US CPI Is Released Today! Saxo Market Call

Forex News: AUDUSD, are sellers setting up a new extension lower?

Price Of Crude Oil (WTI) And Natural Gas (NGAS) Boosting US Dollar (USD) Which Jumps High