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It’s D-day of the week: we will see whether inflation in the US started easing in April after hitting a four-decade high in March, and if yes, by how much. A soft inflation read will come as a relief that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) efforts to tame inflation start paying off, but any disappointment could send another shock wave to the market. In the FX, the US dollar extended gains, despite the easing yields yesterday, as the risk-off flows continued supporting the greenback For now, activity on Fed funds futures give almost 90% chance for a 50-bp hike in FOMC’s June meeting; there is a lot left to be priced for a 75bp hike, if the data doesn’t please. To avoid pricing in a 75bp hike at next FOMC meeting, we must see an encouraging cooldown in inflation. In the FX, the US dollar extended gains, despite the easing yields yesterday, as the risk-off flows continued supporting the greenback.   The barrel of US crude tipped a toe below the $100 level on news that the Europeans softened their sanctions proposal against the Russian oil The levels against the majors like euro, yen and sterling remained flat, but the positive pressure in the dollar, combined with Turkey’s unconventional monetary policy start giving signs of exhaustion. The dollar-try advanced past the 15 mark, and the government asked institutions to make their FX operations within the most liquid trading hours. Two weeks ago, the bank had revised its regulations on banks' reserve requirements, applying them to the asset side of balance sheets in order to strengthen its macroprudential policy toolkit. The latter required reserves now pressure the overnight rates to the upside – suggesting that the unconventional policy is near limits. Energy are up and down… but mostly up. The barrel of US crude tipped a toe below the $100 level on news that the Europeans softened their sanctions proposal against the Russian oil, but oil is already above the $100 this morning. The upside potential is fading due to slower global growth prospects, and the Chinese lockdown. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:24 All eyes on US inflation data! 2:30 Market update 3:50 Strong US dollar threatens lira stability 5:50 Risks in energy markets remain tilted to the upside 6.35 Why Chinese zero Covid policy won’t work 8.07 Coinbase hit hard by crypto meltdown 8:39 Energy, still the best option for investors Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.  

US inflation data didn’t print a soft-enough figure to reverse the market selloff. Disappointing US inflation data sent another shock wave to the US stock markets sending all major US indices tumbling on Wednesday. The S&P500 lost more than 1.5%, while Nasdaq tumbled more than 3%. Bitcoin slumped below the 2021 lows on the back of a broad-based risk-off selloff, and panic due to TerraUSD losing its dollar peg earlier this week. The US dollar remained upbeat, and the dollar index returned above the 104 mark as the lower-than-expected cool down in the US inflation figure revived the Fed hawks. Gold rebounded from the 200-DMA, as the US 10-year yield eased despite yesterday’s higher-than-expected inflation print in the US The pound-dollar is testing the 1.22 this morning as the UK-European relationship is souring on the Northern Ireland headache. Gold rebounded from the 200-DMA, as the US 10-year yield eased despite yesterday’s higher-than-expected inflation print in the US, as US crude saw a decent dip buying interest below the $100 per barrel, even with the souring prospects of a healthy global economic recovery. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM   Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:28 Panic in cryptocurrencies as Terra loses dollar peg 2:22 Coinbase down on SEC filing about bankruptcy 4:08 Markets down on softer cool down in US inflation 6:37 Disney down, Rivian up after earnings announcement 7:25 USD up, pound down on souring EU-UK relations 8:23 Gold, oil rebound Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.

Summary:  The U.S. Department of Treasury has blacklisted the largest mixer on Ethereum used in hiding blockchain traces. On to companies, Coinbase and BlackRock have announced a partnership in trading and custody of Bitcoin, while Nvidia feels the heat of the upcoming Ethereum merge. U.S. Sanctioned Tornado Cash Yesterday, the U.S. Department of Treasury blacklisted every smart contract and address connected to Ethereum-based mixer Tornado Cash for its use in money laundering. The latter is a popular decentralized protocol used to hide the blockchain trace of Ether and Ethereum-based tokens. It has allegedly been used by North Korean state-backed hacking group Lazarus Group in a $615mn hack earlier this year, however, the protocol is also used by ordinary people wanting to interact on Ethereum with a higher degree of privacy. Elliptic, a blockchain analytics company, has estimated that over $1.5bn has been laundered through Tornado Cash out of a total amount of $7bn. The blacklisting bans American citizens alongside American entities such as exchanges from engaging with clients depositing funds from Tornado Cash. Since the protocol is fully decentralized, governments cannot disable the protocol itself. However, since many crypto users and exchanges are based in the US, the blacklisting might be enough to remove sufficient liquidity from the protocol for it to work properly. This was somewhat the case some hours after the announcement yesterday, as the issuer behind the second-largest stablecoin Circle froze every USDC in Tornado Cash’s smart contracts, meaning users are not able to transfer them out of Tornado Cash anymore. Coinbase and BlackRock announce partnership Coinbase announced a partnership with the world’s largest asset manager BlackRock last week. The partnership enables institutional clients of BlackRock to access Bitcoin brokerage and custody facilitated by Coinbase but handled through their existing portfolio management. Even though we are in a bear market it does genuinely not seem that institutions are shy to interact with crypto, as also both Morgan Stanley and Citigroup have announced positions concerning crypto in the past week to strengthen their internal crypto resources. On another note, Coinbase is set to announce its Q2 earnings later today. Nvidia stock drops. Ethereum got involved As Ethereum miners generated a record-high revenue of $16.5bn in 2021 by validating blocks on the network, there was an equal demand for GPUs utilized in mining operations. Nvidia has for years been the main supplier of GPUs to Ethereum miners. Although Nvidia does not directly state its revenue from providing GPUs to mainly Ethereum miners, it is anticipated that the company generates an appreciable part of its revenue from miners. However, that may soon come to an end, since the Ethereum merge is expected to happen sometime next month, completely taking miners off the equation. Since miners have known this for some time, it seems few acquire new equipment, as it will be challenging to break even in such a short period. It seems Nvidia felt this in its second quarter (ended 31st July). The company cut its expected revenue to $6.7bn from $8.1bn yesterday while simultaneously writing down its inventory by $1.3bn, mainly since the secondary market of GPUs has been flooded by cheap GPUs. If the merge occurs successfully in September, then the market of GPUs used in Ethereum mining will by default never exist again. Bitcoin/USD - Source: Saxo Group Ethereum/USD - Source: Saxo Group Souce: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/cryptocurrencies/crypto-weekly-09082022

Summary:  US equities were not impressed by the lower inflation expectations in the New York Fed’s consumer survey, and Micron’s revenue warning added to the fears with broad losses seen across the semiconductor space. Equity losses broadened as earnings continued to disappoint, and the yield curve inverted further. The US CPI wait game is unlikely to be much more than just noise, but upside risks to USD are seen on stronger underlying dynamics. On the radar today will also be China’s inflation data will be parsed for hints on demand recovery and Fed speakers who may continue to bring up market expectations of Fed’s rate hike path. Markets latest news     Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I)  US. Equities traded lower in a quiet session, awaiting today’s CPI data.  Nasdaq 100 fell 1.2% after Micron Technology (MU:xnas), added to investors’ concern over weakening demand for microchips when the company issued a negative revenue warning, just a day after another leading chip maker, Nvidia (NVDA:xnas) similarly announced.  The company said that the current quarter revenue could come in at or below the low end of prior guidance. Share price of Micron fell 3.7%. S&P 500 fell 0.4%. After the close, Coinbase Global, Roblox, and Wynn Resorts reported weaker-than-expected results and declined in after-hours trades. U.S. yield curve inverts further Front-end U.S. treasury yields rose 6bps and caused the 2-10-year yield spread further inverted to -49.5bps. The 10-year treasury note yield edged up by 2bps to 2.78% after the Q2 unit labor costs in the U.S. came in at 10.8%, higher than expected.  The 3-year action showed decent demand from investors after yields had risen ahead of the auction.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIQ2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Shares of leading Hong Kong property developers surged as much as 5% at one point in the morning session, following newswires, citing Executive Council convener Regina Ip, suggested that Hong Kong is considering to remove the punitive double stamp duty imposed on residential property buyers from the mainland.  The Hang Seng Index rose as much as 1% in the morning but both the Hang Seng Index and Hong Kong developers pared gains after the office of the Financial Secretary refuting the speculation after midday.  Hung Kai Properties (00016:xhkg) and CK Assets (01113:xhkg) finished the day 2% higher and Henderson Land (00012:xhkg) +0.7%. The Hang Seng Index reversed and closed 0.2% lower.  Shares of coal miners surged 2% to 5% across the board following reports that a large Shanxi coal mine had an incident and caused temporary suspension of production.  Chinese EV names traded lower on concerns spurred by a 64% MoM fall of Tesla sales in July despite that the China Passenger Car Association raised EV sales estimate to 6 million, 9% higher from its previous estimate. In A-shares, CSI300 was modestly higher, with coal mining, auto parts, wind and solar power storage, and chiplet concept shares outperformed.   EURUSD and USDJPY stucked The US inflation will be relevant beyond the headline print. Key focus is likely to be on the core measure, as it is evident that lower commodity prices may have helped to cool the headline measure. The US dollar rallied sharply on Friday after a solid jobs print, but has since steadied. The next leg higher could depend on the stickiness of the inflation print, which may raise further the expectations of a 75bps rate hike at the September Fed meeting. EURUSD took another look above 1.0240 overnight but reversed back towards 1.0200 in early Asia. USDJPY is also stuck in the middle of the 130-140 range, awaiting triggers for a breakout one way or another. Oil prices (CLU2 & LCOV2) Oil prices steadied in the Asian morning on Wednesday amid renewed concerns on Russian flows to Europe. WTI futures were seen around the key $90 level, while Brent futures touched $96/barrel. API report also showed another week of strong inventory build, coming in at 2.2 million for week ended August 5 as compared to expectations of 73k. The official government inventory report is due today, and China’s inflation data will also be on watch. Grains eye the USDA report US grain futures led by corn traded higher on Tuesday in response to worsening crop conditions. Just like central Europe, soaring heat and drought have raised concerns about lower production and yields. USDA will publish its monthly supply and demand estimates on Friday. The crop condition report, published every Monday by the USDA throughout the growing season, shows the proportion of the US crop being rated in a good to excellent condition. Silver against Gold. Gold (XAUUSD) looking to test $1800 Gold’s focus remains on the geopolitical tensions, despite the recent rise in US Treasury yields. The US CPI and the $1800 resistance area are now the key tests for Gold ahead, and any pickup in rate hike expectations from the Fed could bring bears of the yellow metal back in force. Silver (XAGUSD) has been outshining Gold and in the process managing to mount a challenge above its 50-day moving average, now support at $20.33 with focus on resistance at $20.85.   What to consider?     US CPI due today will be just noise The highly-watched US inflation data is due to be released today, and the debate on inflation peaking vs. higher-for-longer will be revived. Meanwhile, the Fed has recently stayed away from providing forward guidance, which has now made all the data points ahead of the September 21 FOMC meeting a lot more important to predict the path of Fed rates from here. Bloomberg consensus expects inflation to slow down from 9.1% YoY in June to 8.8% YoY last month, but it will be more important to think about how fast inflation can decelerate from here, and how low it can go. The core print will gather greater attention to assess stickiness and breadth of price pressures. However, any surprise will still just be a noise given that we have another print for August due ahead of the next FOMC meeting. Fed’s Evans will take the hot seat today Chicago President Charles Evans discusses the economy and monetary policy today. Evans is not a voter this year, but he votes in 2023. He said last week a 50bps rate hike is a reasonable assessment for the September meeting, but 75bps is a possibility too if inflation does not improve. He expects 25bps from there on until Q2 2023 and sees a policy rate between 3.75-4% in 2023, which is in line with Fed’s median view of 3.8% for 2023, but above the 3.1% that the market is currently pricing in. US New York Fed survey of inflation expectations show sharp decline Median 1-year ahead and 3-year ahead inflation expectations declined sharply in July, from 6.8%/3.6% in June to 6.2%/3.2% in July. Lower income households showed the greatest shift lower in expectations, possibly linked to the sharp drop in petrol prices (the peak in June in one national measure was over $5.00/gallon, a level that fell to below $4.25/gallon by the end of July. China’s PPI inflation is set to ease while CPI is expected to pick up in July The median forecasts from economists being surveyed by Bloomberg are 4.9% (vs June: 6.1%) for PPI and 2.9% (vs 2.5% for June). The higher CPI forecast is mainly a result of a surge in pork prices by 35% in July from June. On the other hand, PPI is expected to continue its recent trend of deceleration due to a low base and a fall in material prices. The convergence of the gap between PPI and CPI is likely to benefit downstream manufacturing industries. Japan PPI shows continued input price pressures Japan’s July producer prices came in slightly above expectations at 8.6% y/y (vs. estimates of 8.4% y/y) while the m/m figure was as expected at 0.4%. The continued surge reflects that Japanese businesses are waddling high input price pressures, and these are likely to get passed on to the consumers, suggesting further increases in CPI remain likely. The government is also set to announce a cabinet reshuffle today, and households may see increased measures to help relieve the price pressures. That will continue to ease the pressure on the Bank of Japan to tighten policy. Coinbase is still losing but is going to give a fight Coinbase (COIN:xnas) reported la loss of USD1.1 billion in Q2, larger-than-expected. Revenues dropped to USD808 million, sharply lower from last year’s USD2.2 billion. Monthly transaction users fell to 9 million, 2% lower from prior quarter. The company sees average monthly transaction users 7 millions to 9 millions in the current quarter. Coinbase Global is worth watching given the fallout in cryptocurrency trading and the recent partnership with BlackRock to ease access for institutional investors. Chipmaker warnings continue, with Micron warning of ‘challenging’ conditions After Nvidia, now Micron (MU) has issued warning of a possible revenue miss in the current quarter and ‘challenging’ memory conditions. The company officials said that they expect the revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter, which ends in August, “may come in at or below the low end of the revenue guidance range provided in our June 30 earnings call.” The company had called for $6.8-7.6 billion in revenue in its June earnings report. Moreover, they also guided for a tough next quarter as well as shipments could fall on a sequential basis, given the inventory buildup with their customers.   For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/apac-daily-digest-10-aug-2022-10082022

Summary:  Market sentiment weakened again yesterday, with the US Nasdaq 100 index interacting with the pivotal 13,000 area that was so pivotal on the way up ahead of today’s US July CPI release, which could prove important in either confirming or rejecting the complacent market’s expectations that a slowing economy and peaking inflation will allow the Fed to moderate its rate hike path after the September meeting. A surprisingly strong core CPI reading would likely unsettle the market today.   Our trading focus   Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) US interest rates are moving higher again and US equities lower with the S&P 500 at 4,124 yesterday with today’s price action testing the 100-day moving average around the 4,110 level. The past week has delivered more negative earnings surprises and weak outlooks impacting sentiment and the geopolitical risk picture is not helping either. In the event of a worse than expected US CPI release today we could take out the recent trading range in S&P 500 futures to the downside and begin the journey back to 4,000. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI.I) and China’s CSI300 (000300.I) Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH.I) fell 3%. China internet stocks declined across the aboard, losing 2-4%. Shares of EV manufacturers plunged 4-8% despite the China Passenger Car Association raised its 2022 EV sales estimate yesterday to 6mn, 9% higher from its previous estimate. Hang Seng Index plunged 2.4% and CSI300 fell 1.1%. USD decision time The USD remains largely stuck in neutral and may remain so unless or until some incoming input jolts the US treasury market and the complacent view that the US is set to peak its policy rate in December, with the potential to ease by perhaps mid-next year. Technical signs of a broad USD recovery, whether on yields pulling higher or due to a sudden cratering in market sentiment on concerns for the economic outlook or worsening liquidity as the Fed QT schedule is set to continue for now regardless of incoming data, would include USDJPY pulling above 136.00, EURUSD dropping down through 1.0100 and AUDUSD back down below 0.6900. Today’s July US CPI could prove a catalyst for a directional move in the greenback in either direction. Gold (XAUUSD) briefly tested a key area of resistance above $1800 on Tuesday ... before retracing lower as the recent support from rising silver and copper prices faded. With the dollar and yields seeing small gains ahead of today’s US CPI print, and with key resistance levels in all three metals looming, traders decided to book some profit. The market is looking for US inflation to ease from 9.1% to 8.8% and the outcome will have an impact on rate hike expectations from the Fed with a a higher-than-expected number potentially adding some downward pressure on metal prices. Silver (XAGUSD), as highlighted in recent updates, has been outshining Gold and in the process managing to mount a challenge above its 50-day moving average, now support at $20.33 with focus on resistance at $20.85.  Crude oil Crude oil prices rose on Tuesday on news pipeline flows of crude oil from Russia via Ukraine to Europe had been halted over a payment dispute of transit fees. The line, however, is expected to reopen within days but it nevertheless highlights and supports the current price divergence between WTI futures stuck around $90, amid rising US stockpiles and slowing gasoline demand, and Brent which trades above $96. The API reported a 2.2-million-barrel increase in US stockpiles last week with stocks at Cushing, the key storage hub, also rising. The official government inventory report is due today, with surveys pointing to a much smaller build at just 250k barrels. In addition, the market will be paying close attention to implied gasoline demand with recent data showing a slowdown. Also focus on China as lockdowns return, US CPI and Thursday’s Oil Market Reports from OPEC and the IEA. Grains eye Friday’s WASDE report US grain futures led by soybeans and corn trade higher on the week in response to worsening crop conditions. Just like central Europe, soaring heat and drought have raised concerns about lower production and yields. USDA will publish its monthly supply and demand estimates on Friday and given the current conditions a smaller yield could tighten the ending stock situation. The crop condition report, published every Monday by the USDA throughout the growing season, shows the proportion of the US crop being rated in a good to excellent condition. Last week the rating for corn dropped by 3% to 58% versus 64% a year ago. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT) US 10-year yields are poised in an important area ahead of the pivotal 3.00% level that would suggest a more determined attempt for yields to try toward the cycle top at 3.50%. Of late, the yield curve inversion has been the primary focus as long yields remain subdued relative to the front end of the curve, a development that could deepen if inflation remains higher than expected while economic activity slows. The three-year T-note auction yesterday saw solid demand, while today sees an auction of 10-year Treasuries.   Newsfeed   Taiwan officials want Foxconn to withdraw investment in Chinese chip company Foxconn announced a $800 million investment in mainland China’s Tsinghua Unigroup last month, but national security officials want the company to drop the investment, likely in connection with recent US-China confrontation in the wake of the visit to Taiwan from US House Speaker Pelosi and the ensuing Chinese military exercises around Taiwan. US Q2 Unit Labor costs remain high at 10.8%, while productivity weak at –4.6% These number suggest a very tight labor market as companies are beset with rising costs for work and less output per unit of worker effort. This number was down from the Q1 levels, but in many past cycles, rising labor costs and falling productivity often precede a powerful deceleration in the labor market as companies slow hiring (and once the recession hits begin firing employees which registers as lower unit costs and rising productivity). Japan PPI shows continued input price pressures Japan’s July producer prices came in slightly above expectations at 8.6% y/y (vs. estimates of 8.4% y/y) while the m/m figure was as expected at 0.4%. The continued surge reflects that Japanese businesses are waddling high input price pressures, and these are likely to get passed on to the consumers, suggesting further increases in CPI remain likely. The government is also set to announce a cabinet reshuffle today, and households may see increased measures to help relieve the price pressures. That will continue to ease the pressure on the Bank of Japan to tighten policy. Chipmaker warnings continue, with Micron warning of ‘challenging’ conditions After Nvidia, now Micron has issued warning of a possible revenue miss in the current quarter and ‘challenging’ memory conditions. The company officials said that they expect the revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter, which ends in August, “may come in at or below the low end of the revenue guidance range provided in our June 30 earnings call.” The company had called for $6.8-7.6bn in revenue in its June earnings report. Moreover, they also guided for a tough next quarter as well as shipments could fall on a sequential basis, given the inventory build-up with their customers. Vestas Q2 result miss estimates The world’s largest wind turbine maker has posted Q2 revenue of €3.3bn vs est. €3.5bn and EBIT of €-182mn vs est. €-119mn. The company is issuing a fiscal year revenue outlook of €14.5-16bn vs est. €15.2bn. Coinbase misses in revenue issues weak guidance Q2 revenue missed by 5% against estimates and the user metric MTU was lowered to 7-9mn from previously 5-15mn against estimates of 8.7mn. The crypto exchange is saying that retail investors are getting more inactive on cryptocurrencies due to the recent violent selloff. China’s PPI inflation eased while CPI picked up in July China’s PPI came in at 4.2% y/y in July, notably lower from June’s 6.1%).   The decline was mainly a result of lower energy and material prices.  The declines of PPI in the mining and processing sectors were most drastic and those in downstream industries were more moderate.  CPI rose to 2.7% y/y in July from 2.5% in June, less than what the consensus predicted.  Food inflation jumped to 6.3% y/y while the rise in prices of non-food items moderated to 1.9%, core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.8% y/y in July, down from June’s 1.0%. China issues white paper on its stance on Taiwan Despite extending the military drills near Taiwan beyond the originally schedule, in a less confrontational white paper released today, the Taiwan Affairs office and the Information Office of China’s State Council reiterated China’s commitment to “work with the greatest sincerity” and exert “utmost efforts to achieve peaceful reunification”.  The paper further says that China “will only be forced to take drastic measures” if “separatist elements or external forces” ever cross China’s red lines.    What are we watching next?   US CPI due today: the core in focus The highly watched US inflation data is due to be released today, and the debate on inflation peaking vs. higher-for-longer will be revived. Meanwhile, the Fed has recently stayed away from providing forward guidance, which has now made all the data points ahead of the September 21 FOMC meeting a lot more important to predict the path of Fed rates from here. Bloomberg consensus expects inflation to slow down from 9.1% YoY in June to 8.8% YoY last month. The core print will gather greater attention to assess stickiness and breadth of price pressures. Will any surprise just be noise given that we have another print for August due ahead of the next FOMC meeting, os is this market looking for an excuse to be surprised as it has maintained a rather persistent view that US inflation data will soon roll over and see a Fed set to stop tightening after the December FOMC meeting? Fed’s Evans will take the hot seat today Chicago President Charles Evans discusses the economy and monetary policy today. Evans is not a voter this year, but he votes in 2023. He said last week a 50bps rate hike is a reasonable assessment for the September meeting, but 75bps is a possibility too if inflation does not improve. He expects 25bps from there on until Q2 2023 and sees a policy rate between 3.75-4% in 2023, which is in line with Fed’s median view of 3.8% for 2023, but above the 3.1% that the market is currently pricing in. Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings in focus are marked in bold with the most important earnings release being Walt Disney and Coupang. Disney is expected to deliver revenue growth of 23% y/y with operating margins lower q/q as the company is still facing input cost headwinds. Coupang, which is the largest e-commerce platform in South Korea, is expected to deliver revenue growth of 13% y/y and another operating loss as e-commerce platforms are facing slowing demand and still significant input cost pressures. Today: Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Vestas Wind Systems, Genmab, E.ON, Honda Motor, Prudential, Aviva, Walt Disney, Coupang, Illumina Thursday: KBC Group, Brookfield Asset Management, Orsted, Novozymes, Siemens, Hapag-Lloyd, RWE, China Mobile, Antofagasta, Zurich Insurance Group, NIO, Rivian Automotive Friday: Flutter Entertainment, Baidu Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0700 – Czech Jul. CPI 1230 – US Jul. CPI 1430 – US Weekly DoE Crude Oil and Product Inventories 1500 – US Fed’s Evans (non-voter) to speak 1600 – UK Bank of England economist Pill to peak 1700 – US Treasury to auction 10-year notes 1800 – US Fed’s Kashkari (non-voter) to speak 2301 – UK Jul. RICS House Price Balance 0100 – Australia Aug. Consumer Inflation Expectations Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-aug-10-2022-10082022

Summary:  Risk on mode activated with a softer US CPI print, both on the headline and core measures. Equities rallied but the Treasury market reaction faded amid the hawkish Fedspeak. The market pricing of Fed expectations also tilted more in favor of a 50 basis points rate hike for September immediately after the CPI release, but this will remain volatile with more data and Fed speakers on tap ahead of the next meeting. Commodities, including oil and base metals, surged higher as the dollar weakened and demand outlook brightened but the gains appeared to be fragile. Gold unable to hold gains above the $1800 level. What is happening in markets?   Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I)  U.S. equities surged after the CPI prints that came in at more moderate level than market expectations. Nasdaq 100 jumped 2.9% and S&P500 gained 2.1%. Technology and consumer discretionary stocks led the market higher. Helped by the fall in treasury yields and better-than-feared corporate earnings in the past weeks, the Nasdaq 100 has risen 21% from its intraday low on June 16 this year and may technically be considered in a new bull market. The U.S. IPO market has reportedly become active again this week and more activities in the pipeline. Tesla (TSLA:xnas) climbed nearly 4% on news that Elon Musk sold USD6.9 billion of Tesla shares to avoid fire sale if having to pay for Twitter. Walt Disney (DIS:xnys) jumped 7% in after-hours trading on better-than-expected results. U.S. yields plunged immediately post CPI but recouped most of the decline during the US session The yields of the front-end of the U.S. treasury curve collapsed initially after the weaker-than-expected CPI data, almost immediately after the CPI release, 2-year yields tumbled as much as 20bps to 3.07% and 10-year yield fell as much as 11bps to 2.67%. Treasury yields then spent the day gradually climbing higher. At the close, 2-year yields were only 6bps at 3.21% and the 10-year ended the day at 2.78% unchanged from its previous close. The 2-10 yield curve steepened by 6bps to -44bps. Hawkish Fedspeak contributed to some of the reversal in the front-end from the post-CPI lows. At the close, the market is pricing in 60bps (i.e. 100% chance of at least a 50bps hike and about 40% chance of a 75bps rate hike) for the September FOMC after having come down to pricing in just about 50bps during the initial post-CPI plunge in yields. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIQ2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Sang Index declined nearly 2% and CSI300 was down 1.1% on Wednesday. Shares of Chinese property developers plunged.  Longfor (00960) collapsed 16.4% as there was a story widely circulated in market speculating that the company had commercial paper being overdue. In addition, UBS downgraded the Longor together with Country Garden, citing negative free cash flows in the first half of 2022.  Country Garden (02007) fell 7.2%.  After market close, the management held a meeting with investors and said that all commercial papers matured had been duly repaid. China High Speed Transmission Equipment (00658) tumbled 19% after releasing negative profit warnings.  The company expects a loss of up to RMB80 million for first half of 2022. Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical (00874) declined 4.1% after the company filed to the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong that the National Healthcare Security Administration was investigating the three subsidiaries of the company for allegedly “obtaining funds by ways of increasing the prices of pharmaceutical products falsely”. Wuxi Biologics (02269) dropped 9.3% as investors worrying its removal from the U.S. unverified list may be delayed in the midst of deterioration of relationship between China and the U.S. Oversized USD reaction on US CPI The US dollar suffered a heavy blow from the softer US CPI print, with the market pricing for September FOMC getting back closer to 50 basis points just after the release. As we noted yesterday, the July CPI print is merely noise with another batch of US job and inflation numbers due ahead of the September meeting. USD took out some key support levels nonetheless, with USDJPY breaking below the 133.50 support to lows of 132.10. Next key support at 131.50 but there possibly needs to be stronger evidence of an economic slowdown to get there. EURUSD broke above 1.0300 to its highest levels since July 5 but remains at risk of reversal given the frothy equity strength. Crude oil prices (CLU2 & LCOV2) Oil prices were relieved amid the risk on tone in the markets as softer US CPI and subsequent weakness in the dollar underpinned. WTI futures rose towards $91.50/barrel while Brent futures were at $97.40. EIA data also suggested improvement in demand. US gasoline inventories fell 4,978kbbl last week, which helped push gasoline supplied (a proxy for demand) up 582kb/d to 9.12mb/d. This was slightly tempered by a strong gain in US crude oil inventories, which rose 5,457kbbl last week. Supply concerns eased after Transneft resumed gas supplies to three central European countries which were earlier cut off due to payment issues. European Dutch TTF natural gas futures (TTFMQ2) European natural gas rallied amid concerns over Russian gas supplies and falling water levels on the key Rhine River which threatens to disrupt energy shipments. Dutch front month futures rose 6.9% to EUR 205.47/MWh as a drought amid extreme temperatures has left the river almost impassable. European countries have been filling up their gas storage, largely by factories cutting back on their usage. Further demand curbs and more imports of liquefied natural gas are likely the only option for Europe ahead of the winter. Gold (XAUUSD) and Copper (HGc1) Gold saw a run higher to $1800+ levels immediately after the US inflation report as Treasury yields plunged. However, the precious metal gave up much of these gains after Fed governors warned that it doesn’t change the US central bank’s path toward higher rates this year and next. With China also ceasing military drills around Taiwan, geopolitical risks remain capped for now easing the upside pressure on Gold. Copper was more buoyant as it extended gains on hopes of a stronger demand amid a fall in price pressures.   What to consider? Softer US CPI alters Fed expectations at the margin The US CPI print came in weaker than expected for both the headline and the core measures. The headline softness was driven by huge drops in energy prices from June levels, with the entire energy category market -4.6% lower month-on-month and gasoline down -7.7%, much of the latter on record refinery margins collapsing. The ex-Food & Energy category was up only +0.3% vs. the +0.5% expected, with soft prices month-on-month for used cars and trucks (-0.4%) and especially airfares (-7.8%) dragging the most on figure – again primarily a result of lower energy prices. While this may be an indication that US inflation has peaked, it is still at considerably high levels compared to inflation targets of ~2% and the pace of decline from here matters more than the absolute trend. Shelter costs – the biggest component of services inflation – was up 5.7% y/y, the most since 1991. Fed pricing for the September meeting has tilted towards a 50bps rate hike but that still remains prone to volatility with another set of labor market and inflation prints due ahead of the next meeting. Fed speakers continued to be hawkish Fed speaker Evans and Kashkari were both on the hawkish side despite being some of the most dovish members on the Fed panel. Evans again hinted that tightening will continue into 2023 as inflation remains unacceptably high despite a first sign of cooling prices. The strength of the labor market continued to support the case of a soft landing. Kashkari reaffirmed the view on inflation saying that he is happy to see a downside surprise in inflation, but it remains far from declaring victory. He suggested Fed funds rate will reach 3.9% in 2022 (vs. market pricing of 3.5%) and 4.4% in end 2023 (vs. market pricing of 3.1%). China’s PPI inflation eased while CPI picked up in July China’s PPI came in at 4.2% YoY in July, notably lower from June’s 6.1%).   The decline was mainly a result of lower energy and material prices.  The declines of PPI in the mining and processing sectors were most drastic and those in downstream industries were more moderate.  CPI rose to 2.7% YoY in July from 2.5% in June, less than what the consensus predicted.  Food inflation jumped to 6.3% YoY while the rise in prices of non-food items moderated to 1.9%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.8% YoY in July, down from June’s 1.0%. In its 2nd quarter monetary policy report released on Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China expects the CPI to be at around 3% for the full year of 2022 and the recent downtrend of the PPI to continue. China issues white paper on its stance on Taiwan China ended its military drills surrounding Taiwan on Wednesday, which lasted three days longer what had been originally announced. In a less confrontational white paper released, the Taiwan Affairs Office and the Information Office of China’s State Council reiterated China’s commitment to “work with the greatest sincerity” and exert “utmost efforts to achieve peaceful reunification”.  The paper further says that China “will only be forced to take drastic measures” if “separatist elements or external forces” ever cross China’s red lines.  Walt Disney results beat estimates Disney reported solid Q2 results with stronger than expected 152.1 million Disney+ subscribers, up 31% YoY and beating market expectations (148.4 million).  Revenues climbed 26% YoY to USD21.5 billion and adjusted EPS came in at USD1.09 versus consensus estimates (USD0.96). Singapore Q2 GDP revised lower The final print of Singapore’s Q2 GDP was revised lower to 4.4% YoY from an advance estimate of 4.8% earlier, suggesting a q/q contraction of 0.2% as against gains of 0.2% q/q earlier. The forecast for annual 2022 growth was also narrowed to 3-4% from 3-5% earlier amid rising global slowdown risks. Another quarter of negative GDP growth print could now bring a technical recession in Singapore, but the officials have, for now, ruled that out and suggest a mild positive growth in Q3 and Q4. Softbank settled presold Alibaba shares early and Alibaba let go of a large number of employees The news that Softbank expects to post a gain of over USD34 billion from early physical settlement of prepaid forward contracts to unload its stake in Alibaba (09988:xhkg/BABA:xnas) and Alibaba laid off more than 9,000 staff between April and June this year added to the pressures over the share price of Alibaba.   For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: APAC Daily Digest: What is happening in markets and what to consider next – August 11, 2022  

Coinbase, the world's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume, with a 24-hour trading volume of nearly $2B yesterday alone, is going through a lot of trouble due to SEC investigations into the company's operations and alleged insider trading. Since the beginning of the year, its stock has fallen as much as 65%, likely due to a drop in trading volume, investor pessimism, historic declines in token prices, and mentioned investigations. "Q2 was a test of durability for crypto companies and a complex quarter overall. Dramatic market movements shifted user behaviour and trading volume, which impacted transaction revenue, but also highlighted the strength of our risk management program," Coinbase said. COIN reported $217 billion in sales for the quarter, losing nearly $100 billion compared to Q1 2022 ($309 billion). Revenue also fell to 803 million against Wall Street's forecast of $873.8 million from more than $2 billion a year ago. The drop in stock prices was not saved by a beat in earnings per share (EPS) expectations, which came in at -$0.87 vs. the expected -$1.23. The stock market's shares buckled, falling 10.5% during yesterday's session. Coinbase's results may have confirmed concerns about the current situation of crypto companies and how the crash contributed to the loss of project revenues and lowered expectations for growth. The situation was commented on by Morningstar equity analyst Michael Miller, who said in an interview with Reuters: "Coinbase has not seen a mass migration from its platform [...], its users are becoming more passive in investing in cryptocurrencies." There seems to be a lot of truth in this. Investors with significant unrealized losses tend to be more willing to wait out a difficult period and limit their activity, while new buyers are likely to be among those who have been waiting for token prices to fall for a long time and have a long-term investment perspective, so they don't trade as actively. It's hard to determine how much of an impact Coinbase's poor performance had on the cryptocurrency market. That's because it coincided with a local correction. What we do know, however, is that the listings of tokens such as BNB (owned by the Binance exchange) and KCS (KuCoin exchange) saw the biggest declines and daily minimums after the COIN results were announced. Currently, Coinbase seems to be distancing itself from competitors such as FTX, Binance, Kraken and KuCoin, which are maintaining a higher growth rate along with a high level of service. Binance alone dwarfs the rest with nearly 21 million visits in the last week and more trading volume than the top 5 competitors in this category combined. Today, the broad crypto market is seeing slight declines. Bitcoin and Ethereum at 12:00 GMT+3 are losing 0.5% and 0.05% respectively, developing a local consolidation. ZCash, which was designed on the basis of Bitcoin, is falling the hardest. It has had several technological solutions added to it, notably affecting a higher level of security and anonymity of transactions. The token has developed strong momentum in recent days, gaining about 18% on the Conotoxia MT5 platform since the beginning of August, followed by a correction today, with (12:00 GMT+3 ) ZCash falling about 8%.   Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Coinbase shares slide after second-quarter revenue decline. Tokens in consolidation (conotoxia.com)

Summary:  Equity markets are ebullient in the wake of the softer than expected US July CPI data print yesterday, as a sharp drop in energy prices helped drag the CPI lower than expected for the month. The knee-jerk reaction held well in equities overnight, if to a lesser degree in the weaker US dollar. But US yields are nearly unchanged from the levels prior to the inflation release, creating an interesting tension across markets, also as some Fed members are explicitly pushing back against market anticipation of the Fed easing next year.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) The July CPI report showing core inflation rose only 0.3% m/m compared to 0.5% m/m expected was just what the market was hoping for and had priced into the forward curve for next year’s Fed Funds rate. Long duration assets reacted the most with Nasdaq 100 futures climbing 2.9%. However, investors should be careful not to be too optimistic as we had a similar decline in the CPI core back in March before inflation roared back. As Mester recently stated that the Fed is looking for a sustained reduction in the CPI core m/m, which is likely a 6-month average getting back to around 0.2% m/m. Given the current data points it is not realistic to be comfortable with inflation before late Q1 next year. In Nasdaq 100 future the next natural resistance level is around 13,536 and if the index futures can take out this then the next level be around 14,000 where the 200-day average is coming down to. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI.I) and China’s CSI300 (000300.I) Hong Kong and mainland Chinese equities climbed, Hang Seng Index +1.8%, CSI300 Index +1.6%. In anticipation of a 15% rise in the average selling price of Apple’s iPhone 14 as conjectured by analysts, iPhone parts supplier stocks soared in both Hong Kong and mainland exchanges, Q Technology (01478:xhkg) +16%, Sunny Optical (02382:xhkg) +7%, Cowell E (01415:xhkg) +4%, Lingyi iTech (002600:xsec) +10%. Semiconductors gained, SMIC (00981:xhkg) +3%, Hua Hong (01347:xhkg) +4%. After collapsing 16% in share price yesterday, Longfor (00960) only managed to recover around 3% after the company denied market speculation that it failed to repay commercial papers due. UBS’ downgraded Longfor and Country Garden (02007:xhkkg) yesterday citing negative free cash flows for the first half of 2022 highlighted the tight spots even the leading Chinese private enterprise property developers are in. Chinese internet stocks rallied, Alibaba (09988:xhkg) +3%, Tencent (0700:xhkg) +1%, Meituan (03690:xhkkg) +2.7%. China ended its military drills surrounding Taiwan on Wednesday, which lasted three days longer what had been originally announced. USD: Treasuries don’t point to further weakness here The US dollar knee-jerked lower on the softer-than-expected July CPI data, although US yields ended the day unchanged, creating an interesting tension in a pair like USDJPY, which normally takes its lead from longer US yields (unchanged yesterday after a significant dip intraday after the US CPI release). USDJPY dipped almost all the way to 132.00 after trading above 135.00 earlier in the day. What are traders to do – follow the coincident US yield indicator or the negative momentum created by yesterday’s move? Either way, a return above 135.00 would for USDJPY would likely require an extension higher in the US 10-year yield back near 3.00%. EURUSD is another interesting pair technically after local resistance just below 1.0300 gave way, only to see the pair hitting a brick wall in the 1.0350 area (major prior range low from May-June). Was this a break higher or a misleading knee-jerk reaction to the US data? A close below 1.0250 would be needed there to suggest that EURUSD is focusing back lower again. A similar setup can be seen in AUDUSD and the 0.7000 area, with a bit more sensitivity to risk sentiment there. Gold (XAUUSD) did not have a good day on Wednesday Gold was trading lower on the day after failing to build on the break above resistance at $1803 as the dollar weakened following the lower-than-expected CPI print, thereby reducing demand for gold as an inflation hedge. Instead, the prospect for a potential shallower pace of future rate hikes supported a major risk on rally in stocks and another daily reduction in bullion-backed ETF holdings. Yet comments by two Fed officials saying it doesn’t change the central bank’s path toward even higher rates – and with that the risk of a gold supportive economic weakness - did not receive much attention. Gold now needs to hold $1760 in order to avoid a fresh round of long liquidation, while silver, which initially received a boost from higher copper prices before following gold lower needs to hold above its 50-day SMA at $20.26. Crude oil Crude oil futures (CLU2 & LCOV2) traded higher on Wednesday supported by a weaker dollar after the lower US inflation print gave markets a major risk on boost. Also, the weekly EIA report showed a jump in gasoline demand reversing the prior week’s sharp drop. Gasoline inventories dropped 5 million barrels to their lowest seasonal level since 2015 on a combination of strong exports and improved domestic demand while crude oil stocks rose 5.4m barrels primarily supported by a 5.3 million barrels release from SPR. Focus today on monthly Oil Market Reports from OPEC and the IEA. Dutch natural gas The Dutch TTF natural gas benchmark futures (TTFMQ2) rallied amid concerns over Russian gas supplies and falling water levels on the key Rhine River which threatens to disrupt energy shipments of fuel and coal, thereby forcing utilities and industries to consumer more pipelined gas. Dutch front month futures rose 6.9% to EUR 205.47/MWh while the October to March winter contract closed at a fresh cycle high above €200/MWH. European countries have been filling up their gas storage, largely by factories cutting back on their usage and through LNG imports, the flow of the latter likely to be challenged by increased demand from Asia into the autumn. Further demand curbs and more imports of liquefied natural gas are likely the only option for Europe ahead of the winter. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT) shrug off soft July CPI data US yields at first reacted strongly to the softer-than-expected July CPI release (details below), but ended the day mostly unchanged at all points along the curve, suggesting that the market is unwilling to extend its already aggressive view that the Fed is set to reach peak policy by the end of this year and begin cutting rates. Some Fed members are pushing back strongly against that notion as noted below (particularly Kashkari). A stronger sign that yields are headed back higher for the US 10-year benchmark would be on a close above 2.87% and especially 3.00%. Yesterday’s 10-year auction saw strong demand. What is going on? US July CPI lower than expected The US CPI print came in lower than expected for both the headline and the core measures. The headline softness was driven by huge drops in energy prices from June levels, with the entire energy category marked -4.6% lower month-on-month and gasoline down -7.7%, much of the latter on record refinery margins collapsing. The ex-Food & Energy category was up only +0.3% vs. the +0.5% expected, with soft prices month-on-month for used cars and trucks (-0.4%) and especially airfares (-7.8%) dragging the most on figure. While this may be an indication that US inflation has peaked, it is still at considerably high levels compared to inflation targets of ~2% and the pace of decline from here matters more than the absolute trend. Shelter costs – the biggest component of services inflation – was up 5.7% y/y, the most since 1991. Fed pricing for the September meeting has tilted towards a 50bps rate hike but that still remains prone to volatility with another set of labor market and inflation prints due ahead of the next meeting. Fed speakers maintain hawkish message Fed speaker Evans and Kashkari were both on the hawkish side in rhetoric yesterday. Evans again hinted that tightening will continue into 2023 as inflation remains unacceptably high despite a first sign of cooling prices. The strength of the labor market continued to support the case of a soft landing. Kashkari reaffirmed the view on inflation saying that he is happy to see a downside surprise in inflation, but it remains far from declaring victory. Long thought of previously as the pre-eminent dove among Fed members, he has waxed far more hawkish of late and said yesterday that nothing has changed his view that the Fed funds rate should be at 3.9% at the end of this year (vs. market pricing of 3.5%) and 4.4% by the end 2023 (vs. market pricing of 3.1%). Siemens cuts outlook Germany’s largest industrial company is cutting its profit outlook on impairment charges related to its energy division. FY22 Q3 results (ending 30 June) show revenue of €17.9bn vs est. €17.4bn and orders are strong at €22bn vs est. €19.5bn. Orsted lifts expectations The largest renewable energy utility company in Europe reports Q2 revenue of DKK 26.3bn vs est. 21.7bn, but EBITDA misses estimates and the fiscal year guidance on EBITDA at DKK 20-22bn is significantly lower than estimates of DKK 30.4bn. However, the new EBITDA guidance range is DKK 1bn above the recently stated guidance, so Orsted is doing better than expected but the market had just become too optimistic. Disney beats on subscribers Disney reported FY22 Q3 (ending 2 July) results showing Disney+ subscribers at 152.1mn vs est. 148.4mn surprising the market as several surveys have recently indicated that Amazon Prime and Netflix are losing subscribers. The entertainment company also reported revenue for the quarter of $21.5bn vs est. $21bn with Parks & Experiences deliver the most to the upside surprise. EPS for the quarter was $1.09 vs est. $0.96. If subscribers for ESPN and Hulu are added, then Disney has surpassed Netflix on streaming subscribers. Shares were up 6% in extended trading. Despite the positive result the company lowered its 2024 target for Disney+ subscriber to 135-165mn range. Coupang lifts fiscal year EBITDA outlook The South Korean e-commerce company missed slightly on revenue in Q2 but lifted its fiscal year adjusted EBITDA from a loss of $400mn to positive which lifted shares 6% in extended trading. China’s central bank expects CPI to hover around 3% In its 2nd quarter monetary policy report released on Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) expects the CPI being at around 3% for the full year of 2022 and at times exceeding 3%.  The release of pend-up demand from pandemic restrictions, the upturn of the hog-cycle, and imported inflation, in particular energy, are expected to drive consumer price inflation higher for the rest of the year in China but overall within the range acceptable by the central bank.  The PBOC expects the recent downtrend of the PPI to continue and the gap between the CPI and PPI growth rates to narrow. What are we watching next? Next signals from the Fed at Jackson Hole conference Aug 25-27 There is a considerable tension between the market’s forecast for the economy and the resulting expected path of Fed policy for the rest of this year and particularly next year, as the market believes that a cooling economy and inflation will allow the Fed to reverse course and cut rates in a “soft landing” environment (the latter presumably because financial conditions have eased aggressively since June, suggesting that markets are not fearing a hard landing/recession). Some Fed members have tried to push back against the market’s expectations for Fed rate cuts next year it was likely never the Fed’s intention to allow financial conditions to ease so swiftly and deeply as they have in recent weeks. The risks, therefore, point to a Fed that may mount a more determined pushback at the Jackson Hole forum, the Fed’s yearly gathering at Jackson Hole, Wyoming that is often used to air longer term policy guidance. Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings in focus are NIO and Rivian with market running hot again on EV-makers despite challenging environment on input costs and increased competition. NIO is expected to grow revenue by 15% y/y in Q2 before seeing growth jumping to 72% y/y in Q3 as pent-up demand is released following Covid restrictions in China in the first half. Rivian, which partly owned by Amazon and makes EV trucks, is expected to deliver its first quarter with meaningful activity with revenue expected at $336mn but free cash flow is expected at $-1.8bn. Today: KBC Group, Brookfield Asset Management, Orsted, Novozymes, Siemens, Hapag-Lloyd, RWE, China Mobile, Antofagasta, Zurich Insurance Group, NIO, Rivian Automotive Friday: Flutter Entertainment, Baidu Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0800 – IEA's Monthly Oil Market Report 1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 1230 – US Jul. PPI 1430 – US Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change 1700 – US Treasury to auction 30-year T-Bonds 2330 – US Fed’s Daly (Non-voter) to speak During the day: OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – August 11, 2022  

Summary:  Today we look at the sharp correction in energy prices driving a softer than expected CPI print for the US in July, which saw sentiment responding by piling on to the recent rally and taking equities to new highs for the local cycle since June. Interestingly, the reaction to the CPI data has generated some tension as US treasury yields are trading sideways after erasing the knee-jerk drop in yields in the wake of yesterday's data. With financial conditions easing aggressively, the Fed faces quite a task if it wants to counter this development, with recent protests from individual Fed members failing to make an impression. Perhaps the Jackson Hole Fed forum at the end of this month is shaping up as a key event risk? Crude oil, the USD, metals, earnings and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are found via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com. Source: Podcast: Soft CPI revives risk rally, but treasury reaction creates dissonance    

Overview: The US dollar is consolidating yesterday’s losses but is still trading with a heavier bias against the major currencies and most emerging market currencies. The US 10-year yield is soft below 2.77%, while European yields are mostly 2-4 bp higher. The peripheral premium over the core is a little narrower today. Equity markets, following the US lead, are higher today. The Hang Seng and China’s CSI 300 rose by more than 2% today. Among the large bourses, only Japan struggled, pressured by the rebound in the yen. Europe’s Stoxx 600 gained almost 0.9% yesterday and is edging higher today, while US futures are also firmer. Gold popped above $1800 yesterday but could not sustain it and its in a $5 range on both sides of $1788 today. September WTI rebounded yesterday from a low near $87.65 to close near $92.00. It is firmer today near $93.00. US natgas is 1.4%, its third successive advance and is near a two-week high. Europe’s benchmark is also rising for the third session. It is up nearly 8% this week. Iron ore rose 2% today and it is the fourth gain in five sessions. September copper is also edging higher. If sustained, it would be the fifth gain in six sessions. It is at its highest level since late June. September wheat is 1.1% higher. It has risen every session this week for a cumulative gain of around 4.25%.  Asia Pacific In its quarterly report, the People's Bank of China seemed to downplay the likelihood of dramatic rate cuts or reductions in reserve requirements. It warned that CPI could exceed 3% and ruled out massive stimulus, while promising "high-quality" support, which sounds like a targeted measure. It is not tightening policy but signaled little scope to ease. Note that the 10-year Chinese yield is at the lower end of its six-month range near 2.74%. Its two-year yield is a little above 2.15%, slightly below the middle of its six-month range. Separately, Yiwa, a city of two million people, south of Shanghai has been locked down for three days starting today due to Covid. It is a manufacturing export hub. South Korea reported its first drop (0.7%) in technology exports in two years last month. While some read this to a statement about world demand, and there is likely something there given the earnings reports from the chip sector. However, there seems to be something else at work too. South Korea figures show semiconductor equipment exports to China have been more than halved this year (-51.9%) through July. China had accounted for around 60% of South Korea's semiconductor equipment. Reports suggest the main drivers are the US-China rivalry. Semiconductor investment in China has fallen and South Korea has indicated it intensions to join the US Chip 4 semiconductor alliance. Singapore's economy unexpectedly contracted in Q2. Initially, the government estimated the economy stagnated. Instead, it contracted by 0.2%. Given Singapore's role as an entrepot, its economic performance is often seen as a microcosm of the world economy. There was a nearly a 7% decline in retail trade services, while information and communication services output also fell. After the data, the Ministry of Trade and Industry narrowed this year's GDP forecast to 3%-4% from 3%-5%. While the drop in the US 10-year yield saw the dollar tumble against the yen yesterday, the recovery in yields has not fueled a recovery in the greenback. The dollar began yesterday above JPY135- and fell to nearly JPY132.00. Today, it has been confined to a little less than around half a yen on either side of JPY132.85. The cap seen at the end of last week and early this week in the JPY135.50-60 area, and the 20-day moving average (~JPY135.30) now looks like formidable resistance. Recall that the low seen earlier this month was near JPY130.40. The Australian dollar is also consolidating near yesterday's high set slightly below $0.7110. It was the best level in two months. The $0.7050 area may now offer initial support. The next upside target is seen in the $0.7150-70 band, which houses the (50%) retracement objective of the Aussie's slide from the April high (~$0.7660) and the July low (~$0.6680), and the 200-day moving average. The broad greenback sell-off yesterday saw it ease to about CNY6.7235, its lowest level in nearly a month. Despite the less-than-dovish message from the PBOC, it seemed to signal it did not want yuan strength. It set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.7324, a bit above the median (Bloomberg's survey) of CNY6.7308. Europe Germany's coalition government has begun debating over the contours of the next relief package. The center-left government has implemented two support programs to ease the cost-of-living squeeze for around 30 bln euros. A third package is under construction now. The FDP Finance Minister Linder suggested as one of the components a 10 bln euro program to offset the "bracket creep" of higher inflation putting households into a higher tax bracket. The Greens want a more targeted effort to help lower income families. More work needs to be done, but a package is expected to be ready next month. The International Energy Agency estimates that Russian oil output will fall by around a fifth early next year as the EU import ban is implemented. The IEA warns that Russian output may begin declining as early as this month and estimates 2 mln barrels a day will be shut by early 2023. The EU's ban on most Russian oil will begin in early December, and in early February, oil products shipments will also stop. Now the EU buys around 1 mln barrels a day of oil products and 1.3 mln barrels of crude. Russia boosted output in recent months, to around 10.8 mln barrels a day. The IEA estimates that in June, the PRC overtook the EU to become the top market for Russia's seaborne crude (2.1 mln bpd vs. 1.8 mln bpd). Separately, the IEA lifted its estimate of world consumption by about 380k barrels a day from its previous forecast, concentrated in the Middle East and Europe. The unusually hot weather in the Middle East, where oil is burned for electricity, has seen stronger demand. In Europe, there has been more switched from gas to oil. The euro surged to almost $1.0370 yesterday on the back of the softer than expected US CPI. It settled near $1.03. It is trading firmly in the upper end of that range today. It held above $1.0275, just below the previous high for the month (~$1.0295). Today's high, was set in the European morning, near $1.0340. There is a trendline from the February, March, and June highs found near $1.04 today. It is falling by a little less than half a cent a week. Sterling's rally yesterday stalled in front of this month's high set on August 1 slightly shy of $1.2295. It is straddling the area where it settled yesterday (~$1.2220). We suspect the market may test the lows near $1.2180, and a break could see another half-cent loss ahead of tomorrow's Q2 GDP. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey is for a 0.2% contraction after a 0.8% expansion in Q1.  America What the jobs data did for expectations for the Fed at next month's meeting were largely reversed by slower the expected CPI readings. On the eve of the employment data, the market was discounting a little better than a 35% chance of another 75 bp hike. It jumped to over a 75% chance after employment report but settled yesterday around a 45% chance. It is still in its early days, and the Fed will see another employment and CPI report before it has to decide. Although the market has downgraded the chances of a 75 bp hike at next month's meeting, it still has the Fed lifting rates 115 bp between now and the end of year. The market recognizes that that Fed is not done tightening no matter what trope is dragged out to use as a strawman. The truth is the market is pushing against some Fed views. Chicago Fed's Evans, who many regard as a dove from earlier cycles, said that Fed funds could finish next year in the 3.75%-4.00% area, which opined would be the terminal rate. The swaps market says that the Fed funds terminal rate is closer to 3.50% and in the next six months. More than that, the Fed funds futures are pricing in a cut late next year. At least a 25 bp cut has been discounted since the end of June. It was the Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari that surprised many with his hawkishness. Many see him as a dove because five years ago, he dissented against rate increases in 2017. However, he has been sounding more hawkish in this context and revealed yesterday that it was his "dot" in June at 3.90% this year and 4.4% next year. These were the most extreme forecasts. Perhaps it is not that he is more dovish or hawkish, labels that seemingly take a life on of their own but more activity. While neither Evans nor Kashkari vote on the FOMC this year, they do next year. San Francisco Fed President Daly seemed more willing to consider moderating the pace of tightening but still sees more work to be done. She does not vote this year or next.  Headline CPI was unchanged last month and the 0.3% rise in the core rate was less than expected. At 8.5%, the headline is rate is still too high for comfort, and the unchanged 5.9% core rate warns significant progress may be slow. Shelter is about a third of the CPI basket and it is rising about 0.5% a month. It is up 5.7% year-over-year. If everything else was unchanged, this would lift CPI to 2%. The US reports July Producer Prices. Both the core and headline readings are expected to have slowed. The headline peaked in March, 11.6% above year ago levels. It was 11.3% in June and is expected to have fallen to 10.4%. The core rate is likely to post its fourth consecutive decline. It peaked at 9.6% in March and fell to 8.2% in June. The median forecast (Bloomberg's survey) is for a 7.7% year-over-year pace, which would be the lowest since last October.  Late in the North American session, Mexico's central bank is expected to deliver its second consecutive 75 bp rate hike. It will lift the overnight target rate to 8.5%. The July CPI reported Tuesday stood at 8.15% and the core 7.65%. The swaps market has a terminal rate near 9.5% in the next six months. The subdued US CPI reading, helped spur a 0.85% rally in the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index yesterday, its largest gain in almost four weeks. The peso, often a liquid and accessible proxy, rose around 1.1%. The greenback briefly traded below MXN20.00 for the first time since late June. The move was so sharp that closed below its lower Bollinger Band (~MXN20.08) for the first time in six months. The US dollar slumped to almost CAD1.2750 yesterday to hold above the 200-day moving average (~CAD1.2745). It is the lowest level in nearly two months, and it has not traded below the 200-day moving average since June 9. Like the other pairs, it is consolidating today near the lower end of yesterday's greenback range. The swaps market downgraded the likelihood that the Bank of Canada follows last month's 100 bp hike with a 75 bp move when it meets on September 7. It is now seen as a 30% chance, less than half of what was projected at the end of last week. We suspect that the US dollar can recover into the CAD1.2800-20 area today.     Disclaimer   Source: US Dollar Soft while Consolidating Yesterday's Drop

Investors are certainly in a more upbeat mood as the relief from the US inflation data ripples through the markets. Positive surprises have been hard to come by on the inflation front this year and yesterday’s report was very much welcomed with open arms. While we shouldn’t get too carried away by the data, with headline inflation still running at 8.5% and core 5.9%, it’s certainly a start and one we’ve waited a long time for. Fed policymakers remain keen to stress that the tightening cycle is far from done and a policy u-turn early next year is highly unlikely. Once again, the markets are at odds with the Fed’s assessment on the outlook for interest rates but this time in such a way that could undermine its efforts so you can understand their concerns. I expect we’ll continue to see policymakers unsuccessfully push back against market expectations in the coming weeks while further driving home the message that data dependency works both ways. That said, the inflation report has further fueled the optimism already apparent in the markets and could set the tone for the rest of the summer. PBOC signals no further easing Unlike many other central banks, the PBOC has the scope to tread more carefully and continue to support the economy as it contends with lockdowns amid spikes in Covid cases. The country’s zero-Covid policy is a huge economic headwind and proving to be a drain on domestic demand. The PBOC has made clear in its quarterly monetary policy report though that it doesn’t want to find itself in the same position as many other countries right now. With inflation close to 3%, further easing via RRR or interest rates looks unlikely for the foreseeable future. Cautious targeted support looks the likely path forward as the central bank guards against inflation risks, despite the data yesterday surprising to the downside. Singapore trims growth forecasts A surprise contraction in the second quarter has forced Singapore to trim its full-year growth forecast range from 3-5% to 3-4% as the economy contends with a global slowdown, to which the country is particularly exposed, and Covid-related uncertainty in China. While the MAS has indicated monetary policy is appropriate after tightenings this year, inflation remains high so further pressures on this front may add to the headwinds for the economy. Where’s the momentum? Bitcoin took the inflation news very well and it continues to do so. Slower tightening needs and improved risk appetite is music to the ears of the crypto community who will be more confident that the worst is behind it than they’ve been at any point this year. Whether that means stellar gains lie ahead is another thing. The price hit a new two-month high today but I’m still not seeing the momentum I would expect and want. That may change of course and a break of $25,000 could bring that but we still appear to be seeing some apprehension that may hold it back in the near term. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Source: Welcome relief

US consumer prices eased in July, and they eased more than expected. US yields pulled lower after the CPI print, the US 10-year yield retreated, the US dollar slipped, gold gained, and the US stock markets rallied. Forex The EURUSD jumped to 1.0370 mark, as Cable made another attempt to 1.2272 but failed to extend gains into the 1.23 mark. And It will likely be hard for the pound sterling to post a meaningful recovery even if the dollar softens more, as there are too much political uncertainties in Britain following Boris Johnson’s resignation.   The sterling is under pressure, but the FTSE100 does just fine, and I will focus on why the British blue-chip companies are in a position to extend gains in this episode. Disney Elsewhere, Disney jumped on strong quarterly results, Tesla rallied despite news that Elon Musk dumped more stocks to prepare for an eventual Twitter purchase. Twitter shares gained.   Watch the full episode to find out more!   0:00 Intro 0:27 Softer-than-expected US CPI boosts appetite… 2:03 … but FOMC members warn that inflation war is far over! 3:39 FX update: USD softens, gold, euro, sterling advance 5:55 Why FTSE 100 is still interesting? 8:06 Disney jumps on strong results, Tesla, Twitter gain Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #US #inflation #data #Gold #XAU #USD #EUR #GBP #FTSE #Disney #earnings #Tesla #Twitter #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq   Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH Source: Stocks up on soft US CPI, but inflation war is not over! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

US Inflation Yesterday, the US inflation report was released, which came in at 8.5% in July. The market did not expect such a large drop, estimating a level of 8.7% before the data was released. The stock markets reacted positively and the major equity indexes rose significantly. The S&P 500 gained more than 2.1% during yesterday's session and the Nasdaq almost 2.9%. Crypto Cryptocurrencies, however, reacted most noticeably - on the Conotoxia MT5 platform, Bitcoin gained around 3.3% yesterday. And today, it continues its rise, breaking through the local peak of $2,485 on 30 August 2022. At 11.30 am GMT+3, the price of BTC is $24,471. The ETH price has risen even more strongly after a surprisingly low inflation reading. Ethereum gained more than 8.5% yesterday, and at 11.30 GMT+3, it is already up more than 2.3%. The token already costs $1,887 - its highest recorded level since 6 June this year.    What to expect? The market's reaction has a lot to do with expectations of interest rate hikes, which fell after the US inflation reading. However, it is still a long way from calling it a permanent decline. Inflation is still at its highest level in decades and the economy is operating in an environment of negative real interest rates.   According to CME Group data, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to push rates even higher. Currently, the Fed Funds Rate is at just 2.5 pp, the level before the Covid pandemic. The CME Group estimates that we will still reach the 3.25 pp level this year, and peak in 2023 at 3.5 pp. However, as for the 2023 projections. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which decides them, is already much less unanimous and a lot may still depend on the information coming out of the economy.   Information on its state in the US is not pleasing. Most metrics - such as the yield curve, consumer sentiment, and economic growth - point to a recession. The labour market, which is surprisingly strong at the moment, is reacting last and is likely to become further evidence of a crisis soon.   The cryptocurrency market has never been in such a severe recession, so it is hard to determine exactly how it will behave. For now, the data shows a relatively high level of correlation between it and the stock market. This is not good news, as the latter almost always loses in a crash.   Polygon (MATIC) is an Ethereum token that powers the Polygon network, which is a protocol for building Ethereum-compatible blockchains and decentralised applications (DApps). Polygon is also referred to as a 2nd level (2nd level) solution to help Ethereum to scale faster, by increasing the efficiency of the network.    On Wednesday, Polygon shared data on user growth. Their total number in July was 11,800, gaining 47.5% since March and up 400% year-to-date. Interestingly, according to the project, "74% of teams integrated exclusively on Polygon, while 26% deployed on both Polygon and Ethereum,". This shows a very high level of confidence in the new technology, which can be the new foundation for the development of DApps. Since the local low on 19 July this year. MATIC has risen almost 172%.  Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service)   Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.   CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: Crypto soars after the low inflation reading. Polygon grows rapidly, gaining 400% users

Overview: The markets are putting the finishing touches on this week’s activity. Japan, returning from yesterday’s holiday bought equities, and its major indices jumped more than 2%. China, South Korea, and Australia struggled. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is firmer for the third consecutive session. It is up about 1.3% this week. US futures are also firmer after reversing earlier gains yesterday to close lower on the day. The US 10-year yield is flat near 2.88%, while European benchmarks are 4-6 bp higher. The greenback is mixed. The dollar-bloc currencies and Norwegian krone are slightly firmer, while the Swedish krona, sterling, and the yen are off around 0.3%-0.6%. Emerging market currencies are also mixed, though the freely accessible currencies are mostly firmer. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is up about 1.15% this week, ahead of the Latam session, which if sustained would be the strongest performance in three months. Gold is consolidating at lower levels having been turned back from $1800 in the middle of the week. Near $1787.50, it is up less than 0.7% for the week. September WTI is edging higher for the third consecutive session, which would match the longest streak since January. US natgas surged 8.2% yesterday but has come back offered today. It is off 2.3%. Europe’s natgas benchmark is snapping a three-day advance of nearly 8% and is off 1.8% today. Iron ore rose 2.2% yesterday and it gave most of its back today, sliding almost 1.7%. September copper is unchanged after rallying more than 3.3% over the past two sessions. September wheat has a four-day rally in tow but is softer ahead of the Department of Agriculture report (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates). Asia Pacific   Japan and China will drop some market sensitive high-frequency economic data as trading begins in the new week.  Japan will release its first estimate of Q2 GDP. The median in Bloomberg's survey and the average of a dozen Japanese think tanks (cited by Jiji Press) project around a 2.7% expansion of the world's third-largest economy, after a 0.5% contraction in Q1. Consumption and business investment likely improved. Some of the demand was probably filled through inventories. They added 0.5% to Q1 growth but may have trimmed Q2 growth. Net exports were a drag on Q1 (-04%) and may be flat. The GDP deflator was -0.5% in Q1 and may have deteriorated further in Q2. Some observers see the cabinet reshuffle that was announced this week strengthening the commitment to ease monetary policy. The deflation in the deflator shows what Governor Kuroda's successor next April must address as well. China reports July consumption (retail sales), industrial output, employment (surveyed jobless rate), and investment (fixed assets and property).  The expected takeaway is that the world's second-largest economy is recovering but slowly. Industrial output and retail sales are expected to have edged up. Of note, the year-to-date retail sales compared with a year ago was negative each month in Q2 but is expected to have turned positive in July. The year-over-year pace of industrial production is expected to rise toward 4.5%, which would be the best since January. The housing market, which acted as a critical engine of growth is in reverse. New home prices (newly build commercial residential building prices in 70 cities) have been falling on a year-over-year basis starting last September, and likely continued to do so in July. Property investment (completed investment in real estate) likely fell for the fourth consecutive month. It has slowed every month beginning March 2021. The pace may have accelerated to -5.6% year-over-year after a 5.4% slide in the 12-months through June. The surveyed unemployed rate was at 4.9% last September and October. It rose to 6.1% in April and has slipped back to 5.5% in June. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey expects it to have remained there in July. Lastly, there are no fixed dates for the lending figures and the announcement of the one-year medium-term lending facility rate. Lending is expected to have slowed sharply from the surge in June, while the MLF rate is expected to be steady at 2.85%. Over the several weeks, foreign investors have bought a record amount of Japanese bonds.  Over the past six weeks, foreigners snapped up JPY6.44 trillion (~$48 bln). It may partly reflect short-covering after the run-in with the Bank of Japan who bought a record amount to defend the yield-curve control cap of 0.25% on the 10-year bond. There is another consideration. For dollar-based investors, hedging the currency risk, which one is paid to do, a return of more than 4% can be secured. At the same time, for yen-based investors, hedging the currency risk is expensive, which encourages the institutional investors to return to the domestic market. Japanese investors have mostly been selling foreign bonds this year. However, the latest Ministry of Finance data shows that they were net buyers for the third consecutive week, matching the longest streak of the year. Still, the size is small. suggesting it may not be a broad or large force yet. Although the US 10-year yield jumped 10 bp yesterday, extending its recovery from Monday's low near 2.75% for a third session, the dollar barely recovered against the yen.  After falling 1.6% on Wednesday, after the softer than expected US CPI, the greenback rose 0.1% yesterday and is edging a little higher today. Partly what has happened is that the exchange rate correlation with the 10-year yield has slackened while the correlation with the two-year has increased. In fact, the correlation of the change in the two-year and the exchange rate is a little over 0.60 and is the highest since March. The dollar appears to be trading comfortably now between two large set of options that expire today. One set is at JPY132 for $860 mln and the other at JPY134 for $1.3 bln. Around $0.7120, the Australian dollar is up about 3% this week and is near two-month highs. It reached almost $0.7140 yesterday. The next technical target is in the $0.7150-$0.7170 area. Support is seen ahead of $0.7050. Next week's data highlight is the employment data (August 18). The greenback traded in a CNY6.7235-CNY6.7600 on Wednesday and remained in that range yesterday and today. For the second consecutive week, the dollar has alternated daily between up and down sessions for a net change of a little more than 0.1%. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.7413, tight to expectations (Bloomberg's survey) of CNY6.7415. Europe   The UK's economy shrank by 0.6% in June, ensuring a contraction in Q2.  The 0.1% shrinkage was a bit smaller than expected but the weakness was widespread. Consumption fell by 0.2% in the quarter, worse than expected, while government spending collapsed by 2.9% after a 1.3% pullback in Q1. A decline in Covid testing and slower retail sales were notable drags. The one bright spot was business investment was stronger than expected. The June data itself was miserable, though there was an extra holiday (Queen's jubilee). All three sectors, industrial output, services, and construction, all fell in June and the trade balance deteriorated. The market's expectation for next month's BOE meeting was unaffected by the data. The swaps market has about an 85% chance of another 50 bp hike discounted.  Industrial output in the eurozone rose by 0.7%, well above the 0.2% median forecast in Bloomberg's survey and follows a 2.1% increase in May.  The manufacturing PMI warned that an outright contraction is possible. Of the big four members, only Italy disappointed. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey anticipated a decline in German, France, and Spain. Instead, they reported gains of 0.4%, 1.4%, and 1.1% respectively. Industrial output was expected to have contracted by 0.1% in Italy and instead it reported a 2.1% drop. In aggregate, the strength of capital goods (2.6% month-over-month) and energy (0.6%) more than offset the declines in consumer goods and intermediate goods. The year-over-year rise of 2.4% is the strongest since last September. The disruption caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the uneven Covid outbreaks and responses are as Rumsfeld might have said known unknowns.  But the disruptive force that may not be fully appreciated is about to get worse. The German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration is warning that water in the Rhine River will fall below a critical threshold this weekend. At an important waypoint, the level may fall to about 13 inches (33 centimeters). Less than around 16 inches (40 centimeters) and barges cannot navigate. An estimated 400k barrels a day of oil products are sent from the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region to Germany and Switzerland. The International Energy Agency warns that the effects could last until late this year, and hits landlocked countries who rely on the Rhine the hardest. Bloomberg reported that Barge rates from Rotterdam to Basel have risen to around 267 euros a ton, a ten-fold increase in a few months. The strong surge in the euro to almost $1.0370 on Wednesday has stalled.  The euro is consolidating inside yesterday's relatively narrow range (~$1.0275-$1.0365). The momentum traders may be frustrated by the lack of follow-through. We suspect a break of $1.0265 would push more to the sidelines. The downtrend line from the February, March, and June highs comes in slightly above $1.0385 today. The broad dollar selloff in response to the July CPI saw sterling reach above $1.2275, shy of the month's high closer to $1.2295. Similar to the euro, sterling stalled. It has slipped through yesterday's low (~$1.2180). A break of the $1.2140 area could see $1.2100. That said, the $1.20 area could be the neckline of a double top and a convincing break would signal the risk of a return to the lows set a month ago near $1.1760. America   Think about the recent big US economic news.  It began last Friday with a strong employment report, more than twice what economists expected (median, Bloomberg survey) and a new cyclical low in unemployment. The job gains were broadly distributed. That was followed by a softer than expected CPI and PPI. Some observers placed emphasis on the slump in productivity and jump in unit labor costs. Those are derived from GDP figures and are not measured separately, though they are important economic concepts. Typically, when GDP is contracting, productivity contracts and by definition, unit labor costs rise. In effect, the market for goods and services adjusts quicker the labor market, and the market for money, even quicker. If the economy expands as the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker or the median in Bloomberg's survey project (2.5% and 2.0%, respectively), productivity will improve, and unit labor costs will fall. Barring a precipitous fall today, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ will advance for the fourth consecutive week.  The 10-year yield fell by almost 45 bp on the last three week of July and has recovered around half here in August. That includes five basis points this week despite the softer inflation readings. The two-year note yield fell almost 25 bp in the last two weeks of July and jumped 34 bp last week. It is virtually flat this week around 3.22%. The odds of a 75 bp rate hike at next month's FOMC meeting fell from about 75% to about 47%. The year-end rate expectation fell to 3.52% from 3.56%. Some pundits claim the market is pricing in a March 2023 cut, but the implied yield of the March 2023 Fed funds futures contract is 18 bp above the December 2022 contract. It matches the most since the end of June. Still, while the Federal Reserve is trying to tighten financial conditions the market is pushing back. The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index is at least tight reading since late April. The Goldman Sachs Financial Condition index is the least tight in nearly two months.  US import and export prices are the stuff that captures the market's imagination.  However, the preliminary University of Michigan's consumer survey, and especially the inflation expectations can move the markets, especially given that Fed Chair Powell cited it as a factor encouraging the 75 bp hike in June. The Bloomberg survey shows the median expectation is for a tick lower in inflation expectations, with the one-year slipping to 5.1% from 5.2%. The 5-10-year expectation is seen easing to 2.8% from 2.9%. If accurate, it would match the lowest since April 2021. The two-year breakeven (difference between the conventional yield and the inflation-protected security) peaked in March near 5% and this week reached 2.70%, its lowest since last October. It is near 2.80% now. Mexico delivered the widely anticipated 75 bp hike yesterday.  The overnight rate target is now 8.50%. The decision was unanimous. It is the 10th consecutive hike and concerns that AMLO's appointments would be doves has proven groundless. The central bank meets again on September 29. Like other central banks, it did not pre-commit to the size of the next move, preserving some tactical flexibility. If the Fed hikes by 75 bp, it will likely match it. Peru's central bank hiked its reference rate by 50 bp, the 10th consecutive hike of that magnitude after starting the cycle last August with a 25 bp move. It is not done. Lima inflation was near 8.75% last month and the reference rate is at 6.50%. The Peruvian sol is up about 1.2% this month, coming into today. It has appreciated by around 3.25% year-to-date, making it the second-best performer in the region after Brazil's 8.1% rise. Argentina hiked its benchmark Leliq rate by 950 bp yesterday to 69.5%. It had delivered an 800 bp hike two weeks again. Argentina's inflation reached 71% last month. The Argentine peso is off nearly 23.5% so far this year, second only to the Turkish lira (~-26%). The US dollar fell slightly below CAD1.2730 yesterday, its lowest level since mid-June. The slippage in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ helped it recover to around CAD1.2775. It has not risen above that today, encouraged perhaps by the firmer US futures. Although the 200-day moving average (~CAD1.2745) is a good mile marker, the next important chart is CAD1.2700-CAD1.2720. A convincing break would target CAD1.2650 initially and then CAD1.2600. While the Canadian dollar has gained almost 1.4% against the US dollar this week (around CAD1.2755), the Mexican peso is up nearly 2.4%. The greenback is pressing against support in the MXN19.90 area. A break targets the late June lows near MXN19.82. The MXN20.00 area provides the nearby cap.       Disclaimer   Source: Heading into the Weekend, Dollar's Downside Momentum Stalls

Summary:  The last test of the highly anticipated Ethereum merge was a success. The real merge has now been scheduled for either the 15th or 16th of September. Whereas the latter was a success, Coinbase’s Q2 result was arguably not a success compared to the market’s consensus. The Ethereum merge has been scheduled following the final test On Thursday, the final public test of the highly anticipated Ethereum merge occurred successfully as the test network known as Görli successfully adopted a proof-of-stake framework. One day later, the developers of Ethereum announced that the real merge is likely to take place on either the 15th or 16th of September next month. This is in line with what we estimated earlier this month, assigning a 95% chance of a merge in September in case Görli occurred flawlessly, as it did. This means that one of the most significant events in the history of crypto is only around a month away. It seems that traders are likewise anticipating the merge. Ethereum hit a local high against Bitcoin since January of 0.0816 (ETHBTC) this weekend alongside hitting a new 3-month high in dollar terms of over $2,000. This is rather remarkable because Ethereum has previously decreased against Bitcoin during bear markets with Bitcoin behaving somewhat as a safe haven within the highly speculative crypto market. At present, the pair trades at 0.0793. Coinbase releases Q2 2022 result On Tuesday, the largest US-based crypto exchange NASDAQ-listed Coinbase reported its second quarter result. The result was, however, not encouraging for shareholders. The company’s revenue declined by nearly 64% compared to the same quarter last year, while the company noted a loss accurately exceeding $1bn. Yet, $377mn of that was caused by depreciating its crypto holdings, with the latter taking a severe hit during the quarter. Coinbase laid off around 18% of its workforce in Q2 while enforcing a hiring freeze. The major issue for Coinbase in Q2 and not least going forward is the fact that its retail trading has decreased substantially, although its volume from institutional clients is fairly more stable. The challenge with the latter is that Coinbase earns significantly less on institutional rather than retail trading. As a consequence, institutional clients’ volume is over three times as much but pays overall 15 times less in trading fees than retail clients. So, unless retail trading surges, the fundamental of Coinbase is likely not improving. Making matters worse, Coinbase is encountering further competition on retail trading from, for instance, Robinhood, potentially over time pushing Coinbase’s high margins on retail trading down. Source: Coinbase Global, Inc. Source: Coinbase Global, Inc. Alongside 21 other companies, Coinbase is a part of our Crypto & Blockchain equity basket for investors wanting to get exposure to the crypto market through crypto-related companies (the basket should not be considered as a trade recommendation, only as an inspirational list). Bitcoin/USD - Source: Saxo Group Ethereum/USD - Source: Saxo Group Source: Crypto Weekly: Ethereum, it is time to merge

TL;DR Lisk is an open-source blockchain application platform that improves Web3 accessibility for developers and users. It offers a simple-to-use software development kit (SDK) that enables developers to build blockchain applications using JavaScript, one of the most widely used programming languages. Lisk is designed to eventually allow developers to deploy sidechains onto their network, so that their blockchain applications can scale while staying connected to the wider Lisk ecosystem.   Introduction One of the major challenges blockchain technology faces in the Web3 era is the lack of accessibility. Different blockchains use a variety of programming languages, which makes it difficult for developers to build applications that can be flexibly used across multiple platforms. What is Lisk? Lisk is an open-source, layer-1 blockchain application platform that aims to help projects onboard users into the crypto and Web3 space. Through its easy-to-use SDK, developers can build scalable blockchain applications easily. The metaverse projects, DAOs, NFT marketplaces, and many other applications they create can also offer faster transaction speed at lower fees for users.   How does Lisk work? Lisk was founded in 2016 by Max Kordek and Oliver Beddows. It focuses on improving Web3 accessibility for developers and users. Some of Lisk’s main features include:  Delegated Proof of Stake (DPoS) Lisk uses the Delegated Proof of Stake (DPoS) consensus algorithm to secure the blockchain. DPoS is considered a more efficient and democratic version of the popular Proof of Stake (PoS) mechanism. It allows validators to outsource the block validation through a voting system. On the Lisk blockchain, voters can use their LSK tokens to vote for a maximum of 10 delegators to secure the network on their behalf and share the LSK rewards among them. Generally, a delegator with more votes is more likely to be selected to generate the subsequent blocks. Since the process is distributed among 100+ delegated validators, Lisk can operate in a fairly decentralized manner. It also enables the network to achieve scalability and increase its transactions per second (TPS) rate.  The Lisk SDK A unique feature of Lisk is its software development kit based on JavaScript, one of the world’s most widely-used programming languages. Popular blockchain networks often rely on different languages. For example, Bitcoin (BTC) uses C++, while Ethereum is built on Solidity. Unless they have a strong command of several languages, it can be challenging for developers to interact with different blockchains.  Lisk’s solution to this is an open-source and modular SDK on JavaScript to make blockchain and Web3 universally accessible to a broader range of developers. Using a very common programming language removes the hurdle for those new to building blockchain applications. Newcomers can start building using JavaScript and TypeScript immediately, without having to invest time and effort in learning blockchain-specific languages.  Furthermore, after the launch of the prospective Lisk Platform, developers will be able to leverage the Lisk SDK to implement their applications on sidechains instead of smart contracts. The sidechains’ interoperability will enhance scaling and keep transaction fees minimal. The Lisk SDK is also expected to support the development of NFTs, P2P, and Proof-of-Authority (PoA) modules. Scalable sidechains To facilitate interoperability between all application-specific blockchains in the network, Lisk is building the Lisk Platform, which is designed to allow developers to build scalable applications with greater autonomy and flexibility on sidechains. Sidechains are separate blockchains that connect to the main chain. On Lisk, developers will be able to deploy their own sidechains to scale their blockchain applications and offer lower transaction fees and greater TPS. Sidechains will communicate with one another directly through cross-chain messages. This interoperability is expected to ensure smooth asset exchange between sidechains and the main Lisk blockchain.  The Lisk team is working on expanding its ecosystem by facilitating interoperability with other layer-1 blockchains and protocols, such as Ethereum (ETH), Polkadot (DOT), and Cosmos (ATOM). The vision is for users to benefit from a growing ecosystem of apps interconnected through Lisk bridges.   What is LSK? Lisk (LSK) is the native cryptocurrency and utility token of Lisk. It is used to pay transaction fees and reward delegators on the network. LSK holders can also use the token to secure the Lisk network through DPoS. They can stake their LSK tokens in the Lisk Desktop wallet to vote or delegate, and the tokens will be locked for as long as the user is performing either of these roles.  LSK’s utility is expected to grow, with more use cases emerging as the Lisk network achieves interoperability with other blockchains. For example, LSK could be used for registering blockchain applications or transferring messages between different applications.    How to buy LSK on Binance? You can buy the Lisk token (LSK) on cryptocurrency exchanges like Binance.  1. Log in to your Binance account and click [Trade] - [Spot]. 2. Search “LSK” to see the available trading pairs. We’ll use LSK/BUSD as an example. 3. Go to the [Spot] box and enter the amount of LSK to buy. In this example, we will use a Market Order. Click [Buy LSK] and the purchased tokens will be credited to your Spot Wallet. Closing thoughts Many believe that one of the key components to achieving the mass adoption of Web3 is to make blockchain technology more widely accessible. With projects like Lisk, more developers can build blockchain applications easily using coding languages they’re already familiar with. At the same time, users can benefit from a growing ecosystem of interconnected applications with faster transactions at lower fees. Source: What Is Lisk (LSK)?

TL;DR   Livepeer is a decentralized video protocol built on the Ethereum blockchain. It was designed for anyone to seamlessly integrate video content into applications in a decentralized manner and at a fraction of the cost of traditional solutions. Decentralization of video processing is accomplished by distributing the transcoding process to a network of node operators. Transcoding is an essential step in ensuring smooth delivery of video content to end users. It involves taking raw video files and converting them to the optimal state for each end user, based on factors such as device screen size or internet connection. Livepeer processes video content reliably and inexpensively using blockchain technology that utilizes game theory, cryptoeconomic incentives, and smart contracts to foster positive stakeholder interactions. Its native asset, the Livepeer token (LPT), is used to coordinate and distribute video processing tasks among network participants securely and reliably.    Introduction   With the increasing reliance on social media, especially amid the recent pandemic, as well as the massive growth of the creator economy, video-related content used more than 82% of the internet’s bandwidth in 2021.  The Livepeer network, powered by thousands of distributed nodes, gives video app developers and creators access to a secure, high-quality, affordable encoding architecture without a hefty price tag. Since its inception in 2017, the Livepeer network has processed over 150 million minutes of video.   How does Livepeer work?   Livepeer, built on Ethereum, is essentially a network that connects anyone seeking video processing with suppliers that provide this service. It uses its native token, LPT, to incentivize network participants to keep this video transcoding process reliable, secure, and affordable compared to current centralized solutions. There are two main stakeholders in the Livepeer network: orchestrators and delegators.  Orchestrators Anyone who owns video mining equipment can stake their LPT and perform video processing work on the Livepeer network. In exchange for providing this service, they receive a share of the video processing fee in the form of LPT and ETH. These network participants are called orchestrators.  Delegators Those who don’t have access to video mining tools or video processing experience can still participate in the network by delegating or assigning their LPT to a node operator with the right tools and expertise to process video via the Livepeer Explorer. These network participants are called delegators.   What is LPT? The network’s native asset, the Livepeer token (LPT), is an ERC-20 token used to provide security, distribute video processing tasks among network participants, and incentivize their active participation in the various roles on the Livepeer network. The more LPT tokens are committed to the network’s functioning, the more stable, secure, and robust it becomes.   Orchestrators are allocated work according to the amount of LPT they have staked — their own or those of delegators — along with their geographical location and reliability. Since more delegated tokens lead to more work, and more work equals more rewards, orchestrators compete to attract as many delegators as possible. At the end of each round, i.e. end of every day, the Livepeer protocol mints new Livepeer tokens according to a designated inflation rate. Livepeer is a “stake-based” protocol, which means rewards are allocated to each participating user in proportion to their contribution. Participants who have been active in a given round — either by running nodes or by staking tokens — receive a proportionate amount of the issued reward. Those who did not actively participate in a given round do not receive these rewards.  Orchestrators also earn an added benefit: they receive a portion of their delegators’ rewards as a commission for running the decentralized infrastructure.  With this system, active participants can grow their stake in the network. Meanwhile, transcoding rights of inactive users shrink with every round in which they do not participate. In other words, a larger LPT stake results in more allocated work, ultimately leading to more rewards.  The inflation rate used to determine the size of the issued rewards also motivates users to be active. The percentage of new LPT in each compensation round is determined by how many total LPT are committed to the network’s successful functioning. The higher this proportion, the lower the inflation rate and the more value existing tokens will retain. Thus, token holders are naturally motivated to stake more to earn more.   How to buy LPT on Binance?   You can buy LPT on cryptocurrency exchanges like Binance.  1. Log in to your Binance account and go to [Trade] -> [Spot].  2. Type “LPT” on the search bar to see the available trading pairs. We will use LPT/BUSD as an example. 3. Go to the [Spot] box and enter the amount of LPT you want to buy. In this example, we will use a Market order. Click [Buy LPT] to confirm your order, and the purchased LPT will be credited to your Spot Wallet. Closing thoughts Livepeer has designed a solution to delegate video processing tasks to reliable parties. With a  decentralized video protocol, Web3 projects and companies can avoid high, arbitrary video processing fees and censorship to provide better video content for their audiences.   Source: What Is Livepeer (LPT)?

Michael Burry is a well-known US investor who became famous for betting on the collapse of the US real estate market and the burst of the bubble in 2008. On 15 August, he filed a 13F form with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), revealing the positions of his fund, Scion Asset Management. To the surprise of many, the investment portfolio turned out to be almost completely empty. Burry held shares worth 165 million at the end of the first quarter. These included companies such as Google, Meta and Stellantis. However, the latest report filed with the regulator revealed that all of it had been sold and the glorified investor's only long position is in GeoGroup, a company involved in running private prisons, but the value of the position is negligible at just under $3.31 million. The investor has recently been posting a number of tweets suggesting the end of the bear market rally. This has sent shock waves across the market, as the investment manager has usually been successful in predicting the market moves, famous for his incisiveness. If there were to be large declines in the broad traditional market, e.g. equities, what could this mean for crypto? The correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 seems to be apparent, but after the last all-time high reading of 0.84 in May, it dropped to around 0.48 at the end of June. What is unfortunate, however, is that the correlation has been rising with subsequent waves of declines and peaked near local lows. If the stock market were to actually experience a crash, a strong reaction from the crypto market can be expected. The recent increase in correlation may be due to the increasing participation of token trading institutions. Michael Burry's attitude was addressed by Mati Greenspan CEO of Quantum Economic, stating that predicting the timing and scale of a crash is almost impossible. "Predicting a stock crash is a lot like predicting an earthquake. You know one will happen every so often but you can never tell exactly when or how severe it will be" - Greenspan said. On the Conotoxia MT5 platform, BTC is seeing its fourth day of decline, losing more than 0.7% at 10:30 GMT+3, while ETH is gaining less than 0.3%, drawing its first upward candle in three days. Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: Michael Burry closed almost all his positions - what could another stock market crash mean for crypto?

Since the beginning of July, the crypto market seemed to be on the rise. The largest tokens (BTC and ETH) at the local peak, gained around 35% and 101% respectively. However, today at 11:30 GMT+3 BTC is losing around 7.3% and ETH around 8%. Today, ETH broke through its price channel and the 20-day moving average. If the price does not return to the channel in the next couple of days, we will be able to say that a possible reversal of the short-term trend we mentioned in previous articles has taken place. Especially if this is confirmed by indicators such as the Wilder directional indicator. BTC has also moved far out of its price channel and is currently below the 10, 20 and 50-day moving averages. The directional indicator has already shown a potential trend reversal and the MACD is approaching the negative zone. Today on the Conotoxia MT5 platform at 11:00 GMT+3, Filecoin (FIL) is down the most. It is experiencing a loss of almost 18%. According to Coinmarketcap, it has a capitalisation of almost $1.8 billion and a daily volume of over $511 million. Filecoin was launched in 2020 to decentralise data storage, providing an alternative to industry giants such as Amazon and Alibaba at a cost reduction of almost 99%. The project's network connects storage providers with customers looking for a place to keep their data. Those offering their storage from laptops to server rooms after verifying data integrity and security can obtain a FIL token as a reward. This creates a highly diversified and low-cost database network. However, the characteristics of the project are inherently inflationary, unlike BTC. The declines described are attributed to a broad market correction, the exit of 'big money' and growing pessimism about the increasing supply of FIL tokens. Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: The crypto market falls as profits are realised

Summary:  Equities closed last week on the defensive as a rising US dollar and especially US treasuries weighed. The US 10-year yield is threatening the 3.00% level for the first time in a month ahead of the important US July PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday. How forcefully will Powell push back against the virtual melt-up in financial conditions after the market felt the Fed pivoted to less tightening at the July meeting?   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures are still rolling over as the US 10-year yield zoomed to 3% on Friday with the index futures trading just above the 4,200 level this morning. The next levels on the downside sit around the 4,100 to 4,170 range, but in the longer term the 4,000 level is the big level to watch. Energy markets are still sending inflationary signals which is key to watch for sentiment this week. In terms of earnings, Palo Alto Networks and Zoom Video will report earnings. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI.I) and China’s CSI300 (000300.I) Hang Seng Index and CSI300 were moderately higher, +0.2% and +0.8% respectively. Chinese developers gained on today’s larger-than-expected cut in the 5-year loan prime rate and last Friday’s report that the PBoC, jointly with the Housing Ministry and the Ministry of Finance to roll out a program to make special loans through policy banks to support the delivery of stalled residential housing projects. Great Wall Motor (02333:xhkg) soared 11%. In A-shares, auto names were among stocks that outperformed. Xiaomi (01810:xhkg) dropped 3% after reporting Q2 revenues -20% YoY and net profit -67% YoY, largely in line with expectations.  US dollar dominates focus in forex this week The US dollar rally picked up speed last week, with key levels falling in a number of USD pairs last week that now serve as resistance, including 1.0100 in EURUSD and 1.2000 in GBPUSD, both of which now serve as resistance/USD support. A significant break of EURUSD parity will likely add further psychological impact, and more practically, an upside break in yields at the longer end of the US yield curve is playing a supportive roll, one that will intensify its driving roll if the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield follows through higher above the 3.00% level it touched in trading overnight. A complete sweep of USD strength also threatens on any significant follow through higher in USDCNH as it threatens an upside break here (more below). The next key event risk for the US dollar arrives with this Friday’s Jackson Hole symposium speech from Fed Chair Powell (preview below). USDCNH Broad USD strength is helping to drive a move to new cycle highs above 6.84 as the week gets underway, but CNH is not weak in other pairings with G10 currencies, quite the contrary. Still, a move in this critical exchange rate will remain a focus, and the contrast between an easing PBOC (moving once again overnight) and tightening central banks nearly everywhere else is stark. The USDCNH moving higher will receive considerable additional focus if the 7.00 level. Crude oil prices (CLU2 & LCOV2) Crude oil turned lower in the Asian overnight after modest gains last week as the focus continues to alter between demand destruction fears and persistent supply shortages. Fears of an economic slowdown reducing demand remains invisible in the physical market but it has nevertheless seen crude oil give up all the post Russia invasion gains while speculators or hedge funds have cut bullish bets on WTI and Brent to the lowest since April 2020. WTI futures trades back below $90/barrel while Brent futures dipped below $96. Still, the gas-to-fuel switch led by record gas prices in Europe has seen refinery margins strengthen again lately and it now adds to the fundamental price-supportive factors. Focus may turn back to Iranian supply early in the week though, with reports that a deal is ‘imminent’. Cryptocurrencies The crypto market took a major hit on Friday with the total crypto market cap diving by more than 9 %, but prices have stabilized over the weekend. The total market cap is now close to the psychological $1 trillion level. US Treasuries (TLT, IEF) Rising US Treasury yields are pushing back against the strong improvement in financial conditions of recent weeks after the US 10-year Treasury yield benchmark jumped to new highs on Friday, well clear of the prior range after a few teases higher earlier in the week and bumping up against the psychologically key 3.00% level. Any follow through higher toward the 3.50% area highs of the cycle would likely add further pressure to financial conditions and risk sentiment more broadly. What is going on? German PPI shocks on the upside Germany’s July PPI smashed expectations to come in at 5.3% MoM, the biggest single gain since the Federal Republic started compiling its data in 1949 and above the consensus estimate of 0.7%. The data suggests potentially a lot more room on the upside to Eurozone inflation, and a lot more pain for German industries. European PMIs due this week will gather attention, as will Germany’s IFO numbers. Berkshire Hathaway wins approval to acquire Occidental Petroleum Warren Buffett’s industrial conglomerate that recently increased its stake in Occidental Petroleum to over 20% following the US Climate & Tax bill which adds more runway for oil and gas companies has now won regulatory approval for acquiring more than 50% the oil and gas company. This means that Berkshire Hathaway is warming up to its biggest acquisition since its Burlington acquisition. The power shortage in China China is currently being hit by a heatwave with a large part of the country experiencing -degree Celsius temperatures since the beginning of August. The surge in air conditioning caused electricity consumption to soar. To make things worse, drought has reduced hydropower output.  Some provinces and municipalities, especially Sichuan, are curbing electricity supply to industrial users in order to ensure electricity supply for residential use. This has caused disruptions to manufacturing production and added to the headwinds faced by the Chinese economy. China cut its 5-year loan prime rate loan prime more than expected China’s National Interbank Fund Center, based on quotes from banks and under the supervision of the PBoC, fixed the 1-year loan prime rate (“LPR”) 5 bps lower at 3.60% and the 5-year loan prime rates (“LPR”) 15 basis points lower at 4.30%. The larger-than-expected reduction in the 5-year LPR, which is the benchmark against which mortgage loan rates in China are set at a spread, may signal stronger support from the PBoC to the housing market.  The Chinese authorities are coming to the developers’ aid in delivering pre-sold homes Last Friday the Housing Ministry, the Ministry of Finance, and the PBoC, according to Xinhua News, jointly rolled out a program to make special loans through policy banks to support the delivery of presold residential housing projects which are facing difficulties in completion due to lack of funding.  Investors will monitor closely this week to gauge if there is additional information about the size of the program and if the PBoC will print money to fund it.  The resurgence of Covid cases in China Daily locally transmitted new cases of Covid-19 in China persistently stated above 2,000 since August 12, 2022, with Hainan, Tibet, and Xinjiang being the regions most impacted. The constituent companies of the Hang Seng Index will increase to 73 from 69 Hang Seng Indexes Company announced last Friday to add China Shenhua Energy (01088:xhkg), Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (01929:xhkg), Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03693:xhkg), and Baidu (09888:xhkg) to the Hang Seng Index, bringing the latter’s number of constituent companies to 73 from 69. The changes will take effect on September 5, 2022. In addition, SenseTime (00020:xhkg) will replace China Pacific Insurance (02601:xhkg) as a constituent company of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index.  Australian share market at a pivotal point After rising for five straight weeks including last week's 1.2% lift, many market participants hold their breath this rally will continue. However, standing in the way are profit results from a quarter of the ASX200 companies to be released this week. For the final week of profit results, we hear from Qantas (Australia's largest airline), Whitehaven Coal (Australia's largest coal company), as well as other stocks that are typically held in Australian superannuation funds; including Coles, Woolworths, Wesfarmers, Endeavour. And lastly about 20 companies trade ex-dividend this week, however they are not expected to move the market's needle. Money managers increased their commodity exposure for a third week to August 16 The Commitment of Traders (COT) Report covering positions and changes made by money managers in commodities to the week ending August 16 showed a third week of net buying with funds adding 123k lots to 988k lots, a seven-week high. The buying was broad led by natural gas, sugar, cattle and grains with most of the selling concentrated in crude oil and gold. More in our weekly update out later. Prior to the latest recovery in price and positions hedge funds had been net sellers for months after holding 2.6 million lots at the start of the year. What are we watching next? USD and US Treasury yields as Jackson Hole Fed conference is the macro event risk of the week Friday The US dollar strengthened sharply, with EURUSD challenging near parity, USDCNH breaking higher today after another PBOC rate cut, and USDJPY not far from cycle highs. US Treasury yields have supported the move with the entire curve lifting over the last couple of weeks and longer yields pulling to new local highs last week. The Fed has pushed back consistently against the market’s pricing of a Fed turnaround to easing rates next year with partial success, as expectations for rate cuts have shifted farther out the curve and from higher levels. This week, the key test for markets is up on Friday as the US reports the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the July PCE inflation data, while Fed Chair Powell will also speak on Friday, offering the most important guidance on how the Fed feels about how it feels the market understands its intentions.   Earnings to watch Plenty of important earnings releases this week with the largest ones listed below. Today’s key focus is Palo Alto Networks, Zoom Video, and XPeng. Cyber security stocks have done reasonably well over the past year despite valuations coming down as demand is still red hot, Analysts expect Palo Alto Networks to report revenue growth of 27% y/y. Zoom Video, which was the pandemic superstar, is also reporting today with estimates looking for 9% revenue growth, down considerably from 54% y/y growth just a year ago. Monday: Palo Alto Networks, Zoom Video, XPeng Tuesday: CATL, Intuit, Medtronic, JD.com Wednesday: LONGi Green Energy, Royal Bank of Canada, PetroChina, Ping An Insurance Group, Nongfu Spring, Mowi, Nvidia, Salesforce, Pinduoduo, Snowflake, Autodesk Thursday: South32, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Fortum, Delivery Hero, AIA Group, China Life Insurance, CNOOC, CRH, Dollar General, Vmware, Marvell Technology, Workday, Dollar Tree, Dell Technologies, NIO Friday: Meituan, China Shenhua Energy, China Petroleum & Chemical Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0800 – Switzerland SNB weekly sight deposits 1230 – US Jul. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 2300 – Australia Aug. Flash Manufacturing/Services PMI 0030 – Japan Aug. Flash Manufacturing/Services PMI Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – August 22, 2022

The average bitcoin payment fee recently fell below $1 for the first time in years. Transaction fees are needed to enable crypto intermediaries to operate, but they are hampering the adoption of payment solutions, affecting small payments in particular. Because the network is expensive to maintain due to its energy-intensive nature, commissions have been able to shoot up many times, for example, Ethereum commissions during the NFT hype. This is even more painful for transfers of small sums. This is why new technological solutions are so important. Here comes ethereum's Merge and payment solutions for bitcoin (Lightning Network and Taproot overlays), which are already revolutionising the world of crypto payments. They allow settlements to be faster, less energy-intensive and less expensive. The current average transaction fee for BTC payments has fallen below $0.825 - the lowest since 13 June 2020, ETH below $0.64, and is likely to be even cheaper. Their decline is not only a reason for the ever-improving technology, but also the recent crash of tokens, NFTs and an increase in the ease of mining in the long term. However, current energy and cryptocurrency prices may cause a short-term decline in mining activity. Many have already suspended operations or exited the crypto world. This can be seen in particular through the massive sale of mining rigs and used computer hardware (especially graphics cards). ETH, BTC and most tokens seemed to continue their declines. ETH and BTC prices are below the price channel and in the absence of a return above its bottom line, we can probably already speak of a short-term trend reversal. ETH has found its support on the 50-day moving average for now, while BTC has already crossed it. Moreover, the technical indicators (RSI, MACD and ADX) do not indicate a reversal of the short-term trend either. Declines in the major stock market indexes, hawkish announcements from the FED and further pessimistic data from the economy seem to be putting a lot of pressure on crypto. RafaÅ‚ Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: BTC and ETH payments getting cheaper. Will Cryptocurrencies experience further declines?

Summary:  On Friday, crypto long positions worth north of $500mn were liquidated, as fatigue spread in the crypto market. Not helping was speculation that exchanges may be forced to censor certain transactions on Ethereum in the future. Speaking of transactions, the demand for them on Bitcoin and Ethereum has decreased significantly, weakening the fundamentals of particularly Ethereum. Traders standing in line to be liquidated The crypto market, notably Ethereum, recovered partially in July and August until last week. From a low of 17,600 (BTCUSD) and 880 (ETHUSD) in June, Bitcoin and Ethereum surged to a local high of 25,200 and 2,030 on the 15th and 14th of August, respectively. Following new local highs, the market was seemingly becoming exhausted last week. Since then, Bitcoin has plunged by 15.6% to 21,270, whereas the Ethereum price has declined by 23.3% to 1,565. On mainly Friday, crypto derivative exchanges saw red. On this day, long positions were liquidated worth a combined $562mn in 24 hours. This is almost as much as the day in June, when Celsius halted withdrawals, even though the market movement to the downside was larger in June. This means that the crypto market has been extremely leveraged to ride the uptrend the past month and that party came to a halt on Friday. It seems that traders have particularly leveraged Ethereum trades going into the merge. Can exchanges censor certain Ethereum transactions? Two weeks ago, the US sanctioned the most used mixer on the Ethereum network called Tornado Cash. The latter has often been linked to money laundering; however, it was frequently used by private individuals to engage with the Ethereum network privately. The Tornado Cash protocol cannot by default be shut down, since it is a smart contract, so the sanctions involve that no US person or entity is allowed to engage with transactions originating from Tornado Cash. Afterward, speculation arose about what could possibly be next in line to be sanctioned. The ultimate sanction could be to censor certain Ethereum transactions, thus possibly shutting down the Tornado Cash protocol for good. At the moment, it would not be possible for governments to directly censor such transactions, however, it might be possible for them, as soon as Ethereum adopts proof-of-stake instead of a proof-of-work framework in the middle of September, known as the merge. This is because the majority of the Ether staked, hence Ether used to verify transactions, is done through exchanges or other intermediaries by clients handing over their Ether to these companies for them to verify transactions on Ethereum. For instance, Coinbase handles close to 15% of the total amount of Ether staked. Governments can technically make Coinbase adhere to such sanctions by ensuring it does not verify transactions related to Tornado Cash on a network level. Without going into too many details, in our opinion, it is very unlikely that this will occur, both from a societal and technical point of view. Yet, if it in reality occurs, then everything in the industry is at risk since the main selling proposition is full decentralization without intermediaries. In case certain transactions are ruled out from the network, we need to look ourselves in the mirror and ask if this industry has then anything to offer at all. The speculation in this matter did arguably contribute negatively to the price development of Ethereum in the last week. Brian Armstrong, Coinbase’s co-founder and CEO, commented on this on Twitter last week. Here, he said that Coinbase would possibly exit its staking operations if governments came to enforce the sanction of transactions on-chain, as Armstrong stated, “to focus on the bigger picture” by keeping Ethereum decentralized. If all staking providers do this, then it will presumably not be a problem, as the network will be kept online by solo stakers. When prices drop, fees follow suit For the majority of the year, the crypto prices have been on a downward trajectory. Transaction fees paid on particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum have followed suit. In November last year, Bitcoin generated around $500,000 - $1mn in fees daily, while Ethereum set at around $50mn - $80mn in transaction fees daily. Now, Bitcoin averages around $150,000 - $300,000 daily, while Ethereum sits at around $2mn - $3mn daily. This emphasizes that most activity on Bitcoin but primarily Ethereum is highly speculative and strictly linked to the prices of cryptocurrencies. Source: Token Terminal For Bitcoin, there are no direct consequences of lower total transaction fees in the near term. However, it might have consequences in the next decades, since the network might not be able to sufficiently compensate miners. For Ethereum, the lower transaction fees result in less Ether burned, effectively meaning less is removed from the supply. This makes the fundamentals of Ethereum weaker. For instance, Ethereum has for the past year burned 4.71 Ether per minute from transaction fees, whereas it has only managed to burn 0.89 Ether per minute in the past 30 days. Bitcoin/USD - Source: Saxo Group Ethereum/USD - Source: Saxo Group   Source: Crypto Weekly: Leverage is the language of crypto

According to Coinmarketcap data, the total capitalization of cryptocurrencies has fallen to nearly $1 trillion, showing a major shift in sentiment among traders and investors in recent days. The last time market capitalization was at this level was in late July. The possible trend reversal does not only apply to cryptocurrencies. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 have fallen from their local highs of August 16 by 5.7% and 3.8%, respectively. This is a significant change for such large indexes. Interest rates on U.S. 5-year Treasury bonds, after recording a local low of 2.55% on August 1, have risen to 3.17% in recent weeks, as Fed policymakers' statements proved more hawkish than expected. These are potential signs of a deteriorating outlook again, which should not be ignored. A chart of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index may show a decline in crypto market sentiment and an increase in investor fear. As recently as last week, the index showed a reading of 44, and now it is 28 points. Despite the partial decrease in the correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500, it still seems to be high. Especially since it has historically risen during crashes - the last peak in the correlation was reached in mid-May, when both markets were down. BTC and ETH, despite finding support at $20,700 and $25,300, respectively, could be more exposed to the downside due to deteriorating economic data and market sentiment.  On the Conotoxia MT5 platform as of 12:00 GMT+3, one of the strongest falling tokens is EOS, which is losing nearly 9% after a 7-day gain of 48%. EOS is the native token of the EOSIO network. In practice, the project provides blockchain developers with a set of necessary tools and services to build and scale decentralized applications. The project's first whitepaper was released in 2017, and the team conducted an ICO, securing more than $4 billion in investment. It was one of the largest crowdfunding events in the history of cryptocurrencies.   Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Source: Does data signal more short-term declines in the crypto market?

Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Crypto Industry News: Since last Friday, August 19, there has been an increased amount of liquidations which has had a key impact on the cryptocurrency market. Since then, bitcoin (BTC) has depreciated by more than 10%. The market capitalization of all digital assets fell below the $ 1 trillion mark again. At the time of writing this article, the rate of the first cryptocurrency is $ 21,000. This means a slight decrease during the day by almost 1%, although bitcoin is losing 12.24% of its value over the last week. Bitcoin's market cap is currently over $406 billion. However, despite the return of bearish dominance and hence the decline in rates, interest in long BTC positions remains at the highest levels in 12 months. Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair has been seen testing the lower channel line around the level of $21,000 as the bears are getting ready do break out below the lower channel line soon. The momentum is still weak and negative on the H4 time frame chart, bounces are shallow and the market is clearly controlled by bears that might accelerate the sell-off and test the swing low seen at the level of $17,600 again. The nearest technical resistance is located at the level of $22,410. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $22,059 WR2 - $21,713 WR1 - $21,486 Weekly Pivot - $21,368 WS1 - $21,140 WS2 - $21,022 WS3 - $20,677 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames continues without any indication of a trend termination or reversal. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Bitcoin for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The key long term technical support at the psychological level of $20,000 had been violated, the new swing low was made at $17,600 and if this level is violated, then the next long-term target for bulls is seen at $13,712. On the other hand, the gamechanging level for bulls is located at $25,367 and it must be clearly violated for a valid breakout. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/289563 Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/289563 Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for August 23, 2022 Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/289563

Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results.The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   Black line -resistance For a 3rd day Bitcoin price has made no real progress. After the sharp sell off from $24,000 to $20,800 Bitcoin has paused the decline and price is moving sideways. Bottoms are not formed in this way and that is why I give very little chances that we have seen the low in Bitcoin price. Bitcoin remains vulnerable to new lows below $17,600 as long as price is below the major resistance trend line. Bitcoin remains in a sideways price action with a slight positive slope. Bitcoin buyers will get another chance to buy Bitcoin at lower levels. This remains our key scenario.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Bitcoin remains for a third day around $21,300  

Relevance up to 09:00 2022-08-25 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. According to the latest data on the outflow of the exchange from Arcane Research, crypto holders are not interested in trading their tokens and, instead, prefer to keep their BTC safe on cold wallets. The events in the crypto market in 2022 caused many to rethink their risk management practices as the collapse of decentralized finance protocols and bankrupt centralized finance platforms exposed the truth that there is no privacy, no keys, no cryptocurrencies. As a result of blocking or loss of funds, bitcoin holders began to withdraw their capital from exchanges at an astounding rate. According to a report published by Arcane Research, deposits began to flow away from both crypto exchanges and lenders. Arcane Research cited the collapse of Terra Luna. This includes the now-defunct crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital, crypto lender Celsius, and crypto brokerage Voyager, which are now in bankruptcy. As these firms collapsed, client funds were blocked and could not be withdrawn, and it is becoming increasingly likely that this will be a complete loss for many of the participants. Because of this, years spent building trust in exchanges and lending platforms have evaporated, and crypto holders have begun withdrawing their funds en masse from both crypto exchanges and lenders. The net outflow from exchanges in June was 119,000 bitcoins. This was the highest outflow since November 2020. July also saw a massive outflow, with 96,000 bitcoins being withdrawn from exchanges. The outflow of funds from the exchange continued in August, and 65,000 bitcoins were withdrawn in the first 22 days of the month. As a result of the outflow, the number of bitcoins held on exchanges is now at its lowest level since July 2018.Investors are also more reluctant to invest in cryptocurrency investment products, as the latest report from Coinshares shows that the outflow of funds from digital asset investment products was $8.7 million for the week. Overall, while crypto holders continue to hold on to their beliefs about the future of the asset class, they are reluctant to trust others to hold their tokens and have instead reverted to the original crypto idea of being their own bank. Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Bitcoin holders are leaving crypto exchanges en masse

Relevance up to 17:00 2022-08-26 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Red line- resistance trend line Blue lines- trading range Green line- short-term support trend line Since the recent low on August 21st around $1,524, Ethereum bounced towards $1,665 but remains trapped inside a trading range with no real progress. The sharp decline from $2,030 ended at $1,524 but price shows no sign of strength for a big bounce higher. Short-term support is found at $1,630, by the green upward sloping trend line. Resistance is at $1,665 by the upper boundary of the trading range. Ethereum is expected to make another move lower at least towards $1,550.I do not expect Ethereum to move higher than $1,750 at this point in time.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Ethereum continues moving sideways

Relevance up to 16:00 2022-08-25 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Ethereum rebounded in the short term but the current growth could be short-lived. After its amazing sell-off, the altcoin could try to recover. ETH/USD increased by 9.44% from Monday's low of 1,529 to yesterday's high of 1,673. It was trading at 1,644 at the time of writing. Ethereum has gone up by 1.25% in the last 24 hours but it has been down by 10.82% in the last 7 days. Bitcoin tried to rebound, that's why ETH/USD turned to the upside. ETH/USD Temporary Rebound? ETH/USD found support right above the 50% (1,519) retracement level and now has managed to pass above the 38.2% (1,640) retracement level. Still, as long as it stays under the downtrend line, the bias remains bearish. Also, the weekly pivot point of 1,718 represents an upside obstacle. Only a valid breakout through the downtrend line and above 23.6% (1,790) could announce that the downside movement ended. ETH/USD Forecast Testing and retesting the pivot point and the downtrend line and registering only fasle breakouts could announce a new sell-off. A larger downside movement and a great short opportunity could appear only after a valid breakdown below the 50% (1,519) retracement level.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Ethereum struggling to rebound

Nvidia earnings released after the market close were in line with the downside-adjusted market expectations, but the current quarter sales forecast fell $1 billion short of expectations. Nvidia stock dived 4.5% in the afterhours trading, and brought forward the pricing of the ‘end of the chip shortage’. But, it is still too early to call the end of the rare chips, as chips for industrial use, cars and machineries remain difficult to find. Here is, as promised, more on that subject: https://medium.com/swissquote-educati... Elsewhere, stocks were flat yesterday. Even though the US futures are up this morning, the direction remains unclear, and conviction low before the much-expected Jerome Powell speech at the Jackson Hole meeting in the coming hours. The dollar is off the early-week peak, gold and Bitcoin consolidate, while crude oil is preparing to test the 200-DMA to the upside. Hence, energy stocks extend gains along with nat gas and nuclear stocks! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:27 Nvidia’s sales forecast falls $1 billion short of expectations! 1:40 Is the chip shortage over yet? 2:40 Market update 3:56 Crude up, oil, nat gas & nuclear stocks race to the top 6:46 USD softer, EUR firmer before ECB minutes 8:00 Gold & Bitcoin traders await Powell speech for direction Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Nvidia #chip #shortage #Fed #Jerome #Powell #JacksonHole #enegry #crisis #crude #oil #natural #gas #nuclear #stocks #USD #EUR #ECB #minutes #XAU #Gold #Bitcoin #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH   Source: Nvidia upsets, again. But chip shortage is not over yet! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Relevance up to 10:00 2022-08-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. The Ethereum Merge is one of the most anticipated events for the crypto community in 2022, with the end of the multi-year plan to shift to a Proof-of-Stake protocol now in sight. Alas, all technology-related things are not free from bugs. Earlier this week, Peter Szilagyi, an Ethereum software developer, tweeted that his team had found a regression that resulted in a corruptive state. In the later update, the developer explained the problem will likely affect those who are running the release in terms of corrupting their database and resulting in the loss of data. A solution to the problem was found after a day of work. The date of the Merge is confirmed. The Ethereum Foundation provided evidence that this latest bug had not derailed the planned launch of the Merge. On Wednesday, the Foundation posted a blog, saying that developers had officially confirmed September 6 as the transition date to a Proof-of-Stake protocol. This will be a two-step Merge: the Bellatrix stage and the Paris stage. The Bellatrix update will take place at 11:34 AM UTC on September 6. The Paris transition to Proof-of-Stake will occur between September 10 and September 20. These dates could change plus or minus five days due to shifts in block time and hash rate fluctuations.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Ethereum Merge coming soon

Relevance up to 10:00 2022-08-26 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Ethereum is on the eve of a key event in its history, but even this did not keep the altcoin from falling. The cryptocurrency fell along with the entire market and tested the support level at around $1500. ETH managed to stop the fall and realize a local bullish momentum, gaining 4.5% over the past day. However, the asset has lost 7% of capitalization over the past seven days. As of August 25, Ethereum reached $1700, but should this be regarded as the end of the correction? On the daily chart, we see the full viability of the altcoin's local bullish momentum. Ethereum formed four uncertain candles in a row, indicating a decrease in overall trading activity and an advantage for buyers. The altcoin has reached a key support zone, which is on par with the final part of the bullish cup and handle pattern. Keeping the bullish pattern intact indicates that strong buying sentiment continues, suggesting a continued rise in the price of ETH. Technically, Ethereum also looks poised for a renewed upward trend. The main metrics of the asset indicate the activation of buyers and the presence of bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index fell below 40 but then reversed upwards and crossed the 50 mark. The movement of the RSI directly indicates growing buying volumes and the presence of bullish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator also confirms the price reversal and forms a bullish crossover near the oversold zone. The MACD also reverses and does not enter the red zone, which is an important bullish signal. Ethereum technical indicators indicate the final price reversal and the completion of the corrective movement. The main on-chain metrics also show an upward movement, which indicate a fundamental confirmation of the price rebound. The number of unique addresses on the ETH network has been showing strong growth since mid-August, suggesting an influx of new users and investments. This fact is confirmed by the growth in transaction volumes in the Ethereum network, which indicates a growing interest in the altcoin network. In other words, after a local correction, which was of a healing nature, Ethereum again attracts investors due to the fundamental factor for growth. In addition, there is an active accumulation of ETH coins by large buyers and miners. This creates a shortage of ether coins, which is especially valuable after inflation peaks in early August due to low fees on the ETH network. Active accumulation by long-term investors and a local decline in the overall trading activity in the Ethereum network had a positive impact on the cryptocurrency. According to the New supply on-chain indicator, the number of new coins is decreasing, creating an additional shortage of ETH in the open supply. However, despite all the positives, it is important to consider the correlation between ETH and BTC. In the coming days, there will be a Jerome Powell symposium, and statistics on unemployment and US GDP growth will also be published. This data can significantly affect Bitcoin, which, in turn, will pull Ethereum along with it. Therefore, if the medium-term prospects of ETH are not in doubt, then everything will depend on Bitcoin regarding the short-term situation.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Ethereum holds above $1500: altcoin correction completed?

After many years of announcements, the Ethereum Foundation yesterday set an official date for the complete transition to the Proof-of-Stake (POS) blockchain. As previously anticipated, there have been no delays, so the 'migration' is expected to begin as early as 6 September. The upgrade, known as 'Bellatrix', involves replacing ETH miners with validators, a kind of 'nodes' of the Proof-of-Stake system. They will be responsible for storing data, processing transactions and adding more chain blocks. Each validator is expected to hold a min. 32 ETH - at the current price, this is approximately $60000.  The Ethereum Foundation expects to activate the Beacon Chain as early as 6 September. This is expected to be the first test connection to begin the complete transition to POS. The activation is scheduled for 11:34:47 UTC. After the initial activation, the Terminal Total Difficulty (TTD) triggering the Merge is expected to reach a value of 5875000000000000000000000000000. This is nothing more than the level of synchronisation of the blockchain, which will become a Proof-of-Stake (POS) chain once the threshold value is exceeded. The timetable is for this to be achieved between 10 September and 20 September. According to CoinDesk, Ethereum developers estimate that this moment will occur on 15-16 September. Merge could have an impact on the crypto world and its prospects. Its scale seems to surpass the ETH split of 2016 and could point to new areas of growth such as a Proof-of-Stake solution, energy efficiency and much lower commissions.  In addition to its impact on the development of technology and ETH, the transformation may also affect other tokens that are heavily influenced by the changing ETH blockchain. We are talking primarily about LDO, ETC and OP tokens. These are projects to which an upgrade could give new meaning.  Additionally, yesterday Vitalik Butterin, founder of Ethereum, published a post on Twitter in which he stated, "People continue to underrate how often cryptocurrency payments are superior not even because of censorship resistance but just because they're so much more convenient,". By this, he seems to be referring to the fundamentals of crypto and the changes to come.   Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Source: Merge receives official start date - what do you need to know?

Market picture Things are slow now in crypto, with a slight downward bias for the second day. Bitcoin is losing 1.5% to $21.4K in the last 24 hours. Ethereum is unchanged for the same time, remaining at $1680. Top altcoins show mixed dynamics, ranging from a 4.1% decline (Solana) to a 2.6% increase (Cardano). Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, was down slightly, by 0.1% overnight, to $1.04 trillion. The Cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index rose 2 points to 27 by Friday and moved into "fear" status from "extreme fear". Bitcoin lags behind the equity market and altcoins on Thursday and early trading on Friday. And now, it is crucial to understand whether this is a formidable warning of domestic weakness in the latest demand for risky assets. Alternatively, the poor performance of the first cryptocurrency might be its own problem. But it would break the trend of recent months, where Bitcoin has often acted as a leading indicator for the global equity market. News background Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said that eventually, cryptocurrencies would be integrated everywhere, as the internet has previously been, and the catalyst for their universal adoption will come from large tech companies. Vitalik Buterin Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin believes that people underestimate how much cryptocurrency payments are superior to other traditional payment instruments. One of the world's leading technology companies, South Korea's Samsung, is serious about entering the crypto market by launching its cryptocurrency platform in the first half of 2023. Olli Rehn, governor of the Bank of Finland, said the digital euro and the use of private financial technology could make cross-border payments easier in Europe.

Samsung Securities, a company engaged in asset management, stock issuance and other financial services, has announced that it will set up its crypto exchange in 2023. The company is expected to start in Korea and later plans to expand to other markets.   The division mentioned above of the company is part of Samsung's large-scale structure, which is part of the so-called chaebols (giant Korean conglomerates). It operates in a wide range of sectors of the global economy - from producing weapons and smartphones to selling clothing or even providing financial services.   The "Securities" division already has experience in implementing crypto-related investment technologies and products. It established the first blockchain ETF (exchange-traded fund) in Asia in June, listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. It gives investors exposure to companies developing and investing in crypto technology.   The company is in talks with regulators and authorities to obtain the necessary approvals and licenses to establish the foundation of the exchange. Mirae Asset Securities and five other domestic companies are also planning to launch their investment platforms, but they do not have as much experience as the rival Samsung.   Earlier this month, the Securities division was one of three financial institutions in South Korea to partner with the country's largest exchange, Bithumb. The partnership meant Samsung Securities customers could indirectly invest in cryptocurrencies through the company's app.   Despite its inflexibility, chaebol has an established market position with enormous outreach and influence. For this reason, acquiring more clients on attractive terms may be easy for the firm, and it could be a significant competitor to Coinbase, Binance FTX or KuCoin.    South Korea seems to be aspiring to become a technology leader in the market. In early August, a "Korea Blockchain Week" event was held in Seoul, bringing together industry leaders, crypto regulation projects revealed are relatively lenient compared to those proposed by authorities in the US, and local companies are interested in further investments in blockchain technology in the DeFi and system infrastructure segments, among others. These plans could make South Korea a hub for the development of crypto technology and companies.  Market losses after recent days of sideways movement   On the Conotoxia MT5 platform, bitcoin and ethereum are losing 1% and 3%, respectively, today at 11 GMT+3. The leading tokens have been outside the previously drawn price channel for a week. The local possible support levels for BTC and ETH are $20700 and $1530, respectively. Their crossing could mean further declines. The continuation of the correction may be indicated by technical indicators such as the MACD, whose histogram for ETH has been falling steadily for a week and a half and now is near zero. In contrast, BTC reached the negative area a few days ago and seems to be falling lower and lower each consecutive day.    The EOS token seems to be losing the most heavily on the trading platform, recording a daily decline of 6.5% at 11:00 GMT+3. EOS is the native token of the EOSIO network, where the project provides blockchain developers with a set of essential tools and services for building and scaling decentralized applications (dApps). Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service)   Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.   CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: Samsung plans to open a cryptocurrency exchange - will it succeed in dominating another sector? Market losses after several days of stabilization.

Relevance up to 14:00 2022-08-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Red line -resistance Green line - support In our previous analysis on Ethereum we warned traders that price was challenging important Fibonacci retracement level at $1,720. Price got rejected at the 38% Fibonacci retracement and broke below the upward sloping short-term support trend line. Ethereum has pulled back towards $1,620 forming a higher low. If bulls manage to break above recent highs at $1,720, then we could see Ethereum move higher towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Until then, price remains vulnerable to a move lower.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Ethereum rejected at Fibonacci resistance.

TL;DR BitTorrent is one of the largest decentralized peer-to-peer (P2P) file-sharing platforms. It’s powered by the Tron blockchain and BTTC, a TRC-10 utility token. BTTC is used to incentivize users on the network to provide their local computer resources for fast download speed and secure decentralized storage. The BitTorrent ecosystem also features a community-based live streaming platform, where content creators and viewers can earn and stake BTTC rewards.   Introduction In the 2000s, a common way to download music and movies over the Internet for free was using peer-to-peer (P2P) platforms like BitTorrent. Despite its popularity, one of the biggest challenges for users was the long hours it took to find and download their desired content, as most users weren’t incentivized to continue sharing files to the network once they received their content.    What is BitTorrent?  BitTorrent is one of the largest and longest-standing P2P platforms for data and file sharing. Initially released in 2001 when the Internet was just starting to catch on, BitTorrent revolutionized the way users download and obtain entertainment media and other large files and data.  Later in 2018, BitTorrent was acquired by the Tron Foundation. It relaunched as a decentralized P2P platform on the Tron blockchain, featuring various new tools and integrated a TRC-10 token, BitTorrent (BTTC), to incentivize its network participants.   How does BitTorrent work? The original BitTorrent platform was founded by Bram Cohen and David Harrison to facilitate the interchange of entertainment media, such as movies and music, among Internet users. BitTorrent does not store content on a single server. Instead, the files and data are distributed and hosted across their users’ computers. When a user downloads a file, they will receive pieces of that file (the torrent) from multiple providers within the network, after which they can remain connected to the BitTorrent network and “seed” the file to other users. Within the BitTorrent network, anyone with the complete file can become a seeder. The more seeders support a file, the quicker the download speed. However, there was little incentive for users to remain connected to the network after downloading a file. To enhance the file transferring speed, BitTorrent launched an upgraded version of the BitTorrent protocol that adopts the native cryptocurrency BTTC.   BitTorrent Speed Powered by blockchain technology, BitTorrent Speed enables faster download speed through an incentive system. To request a file, users (“service requestors”) need to submit a bid to specify how many BTTC tokens they are willing to offer to those seeding the file. Once the other parties (“service providers”) accept their bid, the service requestor needs to transfer the agreed-upon BTTC amount into escrow in a payment channel on the Tron blockchain. The BTTC will be credited to the providers after the file is transferred, and the transaction will be logged on the Tron blockchain. BitTorrent Speed uses BTTC to incentivize users to continue seeding files, which can significantly increase the file-sharing efficiency and accelerate the download speed. With more readily-available files on the P2P network, this could also benefit users that are still using the free BitTorrent client to download files from their peers.    BitTorrent File System (BTFS) Beyond file sharing, BitTorrent also features a decentralized P2P file storage system called the BitTorrent File System (BTFS). BTFS aims to offer a scalable, censorship-proof, and cost-effective alternative to the traditional centralized cloud storage.  The BTFS network consists of millions of BTFS nodes called renters and hosts. Renters are users who rent storage on the network and hosts are those that share their idle disk space for BTTC rewards. When renters use the BTFS service, their files will be sharded and distributed to multiple reputable hosts on the network. Through advanced encoding methods and file repairing technologies, BTFS can guarantee the confidentiality and security of the files, and users can access them conveniently without interruptions.   DLive In 2020, BitTorrent acquired DLive, a community-based blockchain live streaming platform, to offer more decentralized services in the BitTorrent ecosystem. In contrast to traditional platforms, both creators and viewers are rewarded for their contributions to the platform. Users who watch, chat, gift, and share content can also earn BTTC rewards. In addition, the BTTC can be staked to earn more rewards and to unlock premium services on DLive.   What is BTTC? BTTC is a TRC-10 utility token of the BitTorrent ecosystem, with a total supply of 990 billion. It was launched to build a token-based economy for networking, sharing bandwidth, and storage resources on the BitTorrent network.  BTTC can be used as payment for P2P services on the network, including paying for decentralized storage space, bidding for file downloading bandwidth, rewarding those who provide these services, and more. BitTorrent plans to utilize BTTC beyond the current use cases, such as crowdfunding the creation of new content, purchasing downloadable assets directly from creators, and tipping live streaming content creators with BTTC gifts on DLive.   How to buy BTTC on Binance? You can buy the BitTorrent Chain token (BTTC) on cryptocurrency exchanges like Binance.  1. Log in to your Binance account and click [Trade] - [Spot]. 2. Search “BTTC” to see the available trading pairs. We’ll use BTTC/BUSD as an example. 3. Go to the [Spot] box and enter the amount of BTTC to buy. In this example, we will use a Market Order. Click [Buy BTTC] and the purchased tokens will be credited to your Spot Wallet. Closing thoughts BitTorrent is a unique project that uses blockchain technology and cryptocurrency to revolutionize its existing peer-to-peer file sharing platform. It offers a more decentralized, efficient, and cost-saving alternative to the traditional P2P file-sharing platform. In the future, the BitTorrent team is looking to add more use cases to the BTTC token and support more DApp functionalities, which could be an enticing tool for developers looking to launch their own DApps with file sharing and storing capabilities.    Source: What Is BitTorrent (BTTC)?

The speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, expected by investors, may have shaken the markets. During his address, markets could have seen more volatility, leading to a sell-off in risky assets and another wave of dollar appreciation. On Friday afternoon, when the Fed Chairman spoke in Jackson Hole, the U.S. dollar seemed to strengthen, and again to levels last seen 20 years ago. The U.S. Dollar Index is also attempting today to continue its rise from Friday, surpassing the 109-point level, which could result in the establishment of a new peak in the recent uptrend. Jerome Powell, in his speech, indicated that the Fed is committed to lowering inflation by raising interest rates and keeping them higher for a longer period of time. This, in turn, may have influenced the market's valuation of the Fed's actions on September 21, where investors seem to assume a rate hike of 75 basis points to 3.00-3.25 percent with a 70 percent probability. Before Jackson Hole, this probability was around 50 percent. In Powell's view, the right thing for the Fed to do is to continue the monetary tightening cycle until inflation is within the 2 percent target. The Fed seems to be looking more broadly at the data than a horizon of one or two months, and a possible peak in inflation may not change anything here for the moment. The Federal Reserve chairman also warned against loosening monetary policy prematurely. This may have dashed the market's hopes for a so-called Fed pivot, a 180-degree change in attitude. According to Jerome Powell, fighting inflation may be "painful" for the economy to some extent, but it is better than letting inflation get even more out of control. Such statements may have been followed by a retreat from risky assets in the financial markets. On Friday, major U.S. stock indexes took a dive and erased all potential gains from August. The Dow and S&P 500 lost 3.03 percent and 3.37 percent, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 3.94 percent, its biggest drop since mid-June. This morning, futures also seemed to show potential losses, dropping between 0.7 percent and 1.3 percent. The cryptocurrency market was also not indifferent to the Fed chairman's words. Bitcoin, which cost $25,000 as recently as mid-August, slipped below the $20,000 level at the end of the month and appears to be approaching its June low. Ethereum, which recently cost $2,000, is now priced below $1,500. Thus, one can see that the market has begun to depend on events in the real economy and on the actions of the Fed, much like the traditional financial markets, to which, after all, it was supposed to be an alternative. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: Dollar hits 20 years high. Stock market tumbled

The crypto market could have collapsed after Jerome Powell's heavily hawkish speech in Jackson Hole. That day, the leading tokens, bitcoin and ethereum lost 4% and 9%, respectively, and continued their declines over the weekend, reaching levels not seen in two months. On the Conotoxia MT5 platform, bitcoin is losing 0.5% today at 10:30 GMT+3. After breaking through the likely support level of $20750 on Friday, the token may have entered a short consolidation phase. However, given the potentially high level of pessimism in the market, it may be expected that this will not last long, with possible further downward movements ahead.  The BTC price is far below the 10-, 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. The nearest possible support levels are around $19300 and $18600. The MACD indicator and the directional indicator seem to indicate the continuation of the downtrend. The RSI oscillator may foretell its reversal, slowly entering the overbought area. However, since oscillators can usually give signals well ahead, one should be very cautious about this signal.  On the Conotoxia MT5 platform, ethereum is losing 2% today at 10:30 GMT+3. The token tested the likely support level of $1530 on Friday, then broke through it on Saturday. Unlike BTC, ETH has had a much more intense series of rises, and the potential for continued declines maybe even more tremendous. That's probably why the cryptocurrency hasn't even entered a short consolidation phase like BTC, and instead is set lower and lower on successive daily candles.  ETH is also below the 10-, 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. Popular technical indicators (RSI, directional indicator and MACD) seem to point to a continuation of declines. Even the RSI, which may look optimistic for BTC, has yet to reach the overbought area for ETH.  On the Conotoxia MT5 platform, the Cardano project's native token (ADA) is losing strongly today, falling nearly 2.5% at 11:00 GMT+3. Cardano is an ecosystem that allows developers to create tokens and decentralized applications (dApps) within DeFi. ADA uses the Proof-of-Stake (POS) blockchain. For a long time, the project has been considered one of the 10 best projects in the crypto world, according to a Forbes ranking. Currently, the token is most likely following the market and seems to be recovering from the increases over the last two months. The current declines in the crypto market may continue after the Fed chairman's hawkish speech. The expected pivot in monetary policy is likely to happen, but much later than investors anticipated. In the short to medium term, the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies and optimism about blockchain technology could be stifled by the recession, high-interest rates and lower disposable income.    Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: Crypto on fire - ETH and BTC are approaching price levels last seen in June

Table of Contents Crypto Market Overview Top Altcoin Gainers and Losers News Highlights This Week Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Analysis on KuCoin Chart   The past week has brought the crypto market nothing but losses, with only a couple of cryptocurrencies managing to not lose their value. The overall cryptocurrency market volume in the past 24 hours came up to $66.73 billion - close to $10 billion less than the previous week.The overall crypto market cap fell below the $1 trillion mark, now totaling $953.14 billion. This ended up being a decrease of 190.7 billion compared to the previous week. Let's delve deeper and take a quick look at the latest crypto market news and BTC's technical outlook. Crypto Market Overview Bitcoin's drop below the $20,000 mark provided a quick shock to the market, causing more people to believe that another leg down is up ahead. BTC’s dominance is steadily declining, now standing at 38.66%. This came as a result of several cryptocurrencies maintaining their price decrease lower than the largest cryptocurrency. The most valuable cryptocurrency pair, BTC/USDT, is currently trading at $19,786.11, while Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has fallen to 1,444.75, down 10.78% in the last week. The top performers from the previous week were eCash (XEC), Huobi Token (HT), and IoTeX (IOTX). XEC has increased by 29.28%, while HT gained 17.44% in the past seven days. Finally, IOTX gained 12.51%.     Cryptocurrency Market Heatmap | Source: Coin360 On the other hand, Avalanche (AVAX), STEPN (GMT), and Lido DAO (LDO) were the worst performers of the week. AVAX is down 19.45% to $17.96; GMT is down 16.17% in the last seven days; GRT is down 16.10% to $1.61. Top Altcoin Gainers and Losers Top Altcoin Gainers: eCash (XEC) ➠ 29.28% Huobi Token (HT) ➠ 17.44% IoTeX (IOTX) ➠ 12.51% Top Altcoin Losers: Avalanche (AVAX) ➠ 19.45% STEPN (GMT) ➠ 16.17% Lido DAO (LDO) ➠ 16.10% News Highlights Here are some of the events that made the previous week's crypto news section stand out:   US Stocks Lost $1.25 Trillion in Just One Day Fed Chair Jerome Powell has suggested that larger rate hikes were definitely on the table despite recent data hinting that inflation was already slowing down. As a result of this, investors rushed to cut their riskier investments.   This resulted in the S&P 500 closing down 3.4% on Friday, hitting its lowest levels since late July. The Nasdaq Composite Index didn’t perform much better, as it dropped by 4%. Overall, the US stock market lost more value in one day than the entire market cap of the cryptocurrency market.   Cardano (ADA) Inching Closer to its Vasil Hard Fork Input Output Hong Kong (IOHK), the blockchain company in charge of development for the Cardano network, stated that the Vasil hard fork is “ever closer.” IOHK shared its latest Vasil hard fork status, and posted updates on its three critical mass indicators, which determine the date of the upgrade.   The company indicated that they are looking for 75% of mainnet blocks produced by nodes running the 1.35.3 version, around 25 exchanges upgraded, as well as the top ten key mainnet decentralized applications (DApps) also upgrading to the new version.   When it comes to the current upgrade status, we are looking at around 50% of the transition finalized, with 50% to go until the Vasil hard fork goes live.   US Dollar Hits a New 20-Year High One of the largest gainers in the past weeks was none other than the US dollar. The currency has managed to increase its value, thus hitting a 20-year high. On the other side of the world, the euro has suffered massive losses and lost parity with the dollar.   The US dollar’s surge has historically been a bad indicator for the price of Bitcoin - in fact, the two have a strong inverse correlation.   OpenSea Daily Volume Decreases by 99% OpenSea, the world's largest NFT marketplace, has witnessed a massive drop in daily volumes as fears about a potential NFT bubble burst grow larger.   The marketplace processed nearly $5 million worth of NFT transactions yesterday, which came up to around 99% less than its record high of $405.75 million on May 1. The massive decline in daily volumes came as a result of two factors: The overall crypto bear market, which has affected all aspects of the Web3 sector. The increasing fear of the NFT market being a bubble poised to burst. OpenSea’s user count has seen a massive drop over the past 90 days, with floor prices hitting yearly lows. The greatest example of this is the floor price of the Bored Ape Yacht Club, which dropped by 53% to 72.5 ETH on Aug 28 versus a high of 153.7 ETH on May 1.   The Fear & Greed Index at 24, Market Sentiment Plummets The fear and greed index has pushed back down from the past week, moving from 45 all the way down to 24. The indicator now indicates “extreme fear,” caused by the sudden drop of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.     Fear & Greed Index | Source: Alternative   Crypto Calendar: Events to Watch This Week ➺ 29/08/2022 - Klaytn - Magma Hard Fork ➺ 30/08/2022 - Tron - Telegram AMA   Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Analysis on KuCoin Chart Bitcoin (as well as the rest of the cryptocurrency market) has had a horrible week after Jerome Powell’s announcement that the FED may keep rising interest rates. This statement caused the US stock market to erase over $1 trillion, while Bitcoin tanked and managed to drop below $20,000.   Bitcoin is now around 70% lower than its November 2021 all-time high of $69,000. The current sharp movements occurring in Bitcoin are not caused by technical indicators, but rather by news and announcements coming mostly from the west.   However, while it is true that the market is now ruled by fundamental and sentiment indicators, let’s explore the technical side of BTC as well.   Bitcoin has managed to drop below the large 23.6% Fib retracement sitting at $22,845, thus triggering a sell-off. With the price dropping once again, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap has formed another (much smaller) Fib retracement. BTC is now testing its bottom, sitting at $19.408.     BTC/USDT Chart on the Daily Timeframe | Source: KuCoin   When it comes to support and resistance levels, Bitcoin is likely to encounter resistance to the upside at an area between $20,750 and $21,620. On the other side, analysts state that traders should watch out for $19,400, as this is the only level separating Bitcoin from the $17,550 level.   Did you know that KuCoin offers premium TradingView charts to all its clients? With this, you can step up your Bitcoin technical analysis and easily identify various crypto chart patterns.   Sign up on KuCoin, and start trading today!   Follow us on Twitter >>> https://twitter.com/kucoincom   Join us on Telegram >>> https://t.me/Kucoin_Exchange   Download KuCoin App >>> https://www.kucoin.com/download   Also, Subscribe to our Youtube Channel >>> Listen to 60s Podcast   Source: Weekly Crypto Analysis: BTC Under $20K as HODLers Brace for September

Relevance up to 16:00 2022-08-30 UTC+2 Red line -resistance Black lines- Fibonacci retracements Ethereum made new lower lows earlier today at $1,423. Price has reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement which was our next target after the rejection at $1,720 and the break of the support at $1,660. There are indications that price is preparing another bounce towards the important resistance trend line at $1,630. Price is making lower lows and lower highs after the top formation around $2,025. Price will remain vulnerable to more downside as long as it trades below the red trend line. Next downside target is the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $1,310. However first we should prepare for a bounce towards $1,600. Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Short-term technical analysis on Ethereum for August 29, 2022.

Relevance up to 07:00 2022-08-31 UTC+2 Crypto Industry News: Founder and Investment Director of Cyber Capital Cryptocurrency Fund Justin Bons called Bitcoin (BTC) "technically one of the worst cryptocurrencies" and "purely speculative asset without utility" compared to other cryptocurrencies due to the lack of technological advancement. Bons added his opinion in an 11-part Twitter thread on Sunday, stating that Bitcoin's value proposition has long been deteriorating due to a broken long-term security model, relatively weak economic features, and a lack of capability, programmability, and composing. Bons has been an expressive figure in the crypto community for several years now, establishing one of the oldest European cryptocurrency funds, Cyber Capital in 2016, and as of 2014 considered a full-time cryptocurrency researcher. In addition, Bons runs nodes on the Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash networks. Justin Bons said he vigorously defended BTC in 2014, said "the reality is that BTC has changed dramatically since then," with the decision not to increase the block size limit, "a serious departure from the original vision and purpose. Bitcoin ". Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair has been seen making a pull-back towards the level of $20,716 after the bears had pushed the market out of the channel. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $18,940 (technical support from July 13th) and $18,640 (technical support from July 1st). The momentum remains weak and negative, however, there is a bullish divergence seen on the H4 time frame chart between the price action (last low) and momentum. The larger time frame trend (daily and weekly) remains down until further notice. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $20,566 WR2 - $20,144 WR1 - $19,963 Weekly Pivot - $19,722 WS1 - $19,540 WS2 - $19,300 WS3 - $18,878 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames continues without any indication of a trend termination or reversal. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Bitcoin for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The key long term technical support at the psychological level of $20,000 had been violated, the new swing low was made at $17,600 and if this level is violated, then the next long-term target for bulls is seen at $13,712. On the other hand, the gamechanging level for bulls is located at $25,367 and it must be clearly violated for a valid breakout. Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for August 30, 2022

Summary:  Since the largest Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox was hacked in 2014, the trustee has managed to recover around 141,000 out of 850,000 Bitcoins. The recovered Bitcoins were rumored to be paid back to creditors this August. Yet, it seems that it will not occur in the next months, making the market wait in fear of potential imminent selling pressure. The market anxiously awaits 141,000 Bitcoins from Mt. Gox In 2014, the largest Bitcoin exchange at the time called Mt. Gox leaked a total of 850,000 Bitcoins through a hack. Out of a maximum supply of 21mn Bitcoins, the hack is the most consequential in the history of crypto, although there have been many other hacks. Though, the trustee managed to recover around 141,000 Bitcoins, which have to date not been paid out to creditors; that is clients with Bitcoins deposited to Mt. Gox back in the days. With a recovery plan approved by creditors last year, the payout is undoubtedly coming closer. It was rumored in July to take place this August. However, it now seems that it is still months away, as the repayment system is not yet live. Although the Bitcoins are likely not to be repaid in the coming months, it is expected to take place at some point. The market has been severely anxious with respect to the 141,000 Bitcoins potentially flooding the market immediately following the payout, since creditors may see it as a race in liquidating the Bitcoins before everyone else. Since Mt. Gox was hacked, the value of the Bitcoins has increased by a factor of 35, so the creditors might want to secure some profit. What speaks against this race to liquidate the Bitcoins is that the trustee is likely to repay the Bitcoins in installments one at a time. Likewise, these creditors are mainly strong Bitcoin advocates soon having been around for a decade. A substantial portion of them have already made life-changing money, so they are less prone to sell the Bitcoins. As the past has often proved, the anticipation of imminent heavy selling pressure is often more powerful for a potential downward trajectory than the selling pressure itself. Strictly speaking, we do not expect the repayment to pose heavy selling pressure, particularly if it occurs in relatively minor installments at a time. Yet, we have our eyes on the market’s anticipation of the repayment, because it might spread fear across the market since it is predominantly dominated by retail more inclined to fear. See you on the other side, dear NFT hype The crypto trend of 2021 was arguably non-fungible tokens (NFTs). The biggest winner of this trend was the largest NFT marketplace OpenSea, facilitating a volume worth $14bn in 2021. While OpenSea started the year nicely with an all-time high monthly volume of over $5bn in January, it has since seen its volume decline massively. OpenSea has recorded a volume worth $480mn in August so far, in which its volume barely exceeds $10mn some days. The declining volume is mainly a result of a less speculative market combined with diminished prices denominated in Ether and even more in dollar terms. Bitcoin/USD - Source: Saxo Group Ethereum/USD - Source: Saxo Group Source: Crypto Weekly: Anxiously awaiting 141,000 Bitcoins

Stock markets are bouncing back on Tuesday following a rocky couple of weeks as investors grew nervous about the economic impact of tightening. Fed Chair Jerome Powell could not have been more clear on Friday on the central bank’s tightening stance and unlike the warnings from his colleagues, the message appeared to have finally gotten through. Which makes today’s move all the more curious. It’s not the fact that we’re seeing a rebound as equity markets don’t move in straight lines, rather it’s the strength of it that is interesting. Prior to Friday’s speech, investors appeared determined to cast aside warnings in favour of the dovish pivot narrative and today’s moves may suggest the same could still be true after a brief pullback. With a 75 basis point rate hike now viewed as the more likely outcome from the Fed in a few weeks and ECB officials putting a similar move on the table ahead of its meeting next week, how strong of a recovery can we really expect in equity markets? Central banks have made it perfectly clear now that the fight against inflation is their primary concern and a hard landing may just be the price to pay. While that may change if we see any significant improvement on the inflation front over the coming months, the risks still appear more tilted to the downside for the economy. A big moment for bitcoin Bitcoin is enjoying a slight recovery today after surviving a brief dip below $20,000 over the weekend. The hawkish sentiment by Powell took its toll at the end of the week but crypto bulls are fighting back to defend what could be a key level. We may need to see more of the resilience displayed in recent months as a failure to do so could quickly see bitcoin retesting the June lows. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.   Source: A curious rebound

Relevance up to 13:00 UTC+2 Technical analysis: BTC/USD has been trading sideways at the price of $20.300 and i see potential for the the downside rotation towards lower reference point. Trading recommendation: Due to the test and reject of the resistance at the price of $20.500, I see further downside movement. Watch for potential selling opportunities on the intraday rallies with the downside objective at the price of $19.700. Key resistance is set at the price of $20.500 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: BTC update for August 31,.2022 - Potential for the downside rotation of the resistance

Red line- major resistance trend line Blue lines- trading range XRP has reached the end of August with price still trading inside the sideways trading range its been in since the beginning of June. Price remains below the major resistance trend line and with no sign of trend change. Price continues trading sideways between $0.28-$0.37. We continue to expect a move lower as the weekly RSI has not crossed over to oversold levels yet. A new lower low is expected and we remain bearish as long as price is below the red resistance trend line. Short-term bounce towards $0.52 is possible if price breaks above $0.40. Trends do not usually end with trading ranges and sideways movement. Trends usually end with a capitulation low or high. We have not seen a capitulation low and that is why I remain pessimistic for the near future. Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Weekly XRP analysis for the end of August 2022.

TL;DR MANTRA is a vertically-integrated blockchain ecosystem. The MANTRA OMniverse encompasses the DAO; MANTRA Nodes: a blockchain infrastructure-as-a-service business; MANTRA Chain: a protocol for various assets for the Cosmos ecosystem; and MANTRA Finance: a DeFi platform that brings the speed and transparency of DeFi to the world of TradFi.   Introduction Launched in 2020, MANTRA is a vertically-integrated blockchain ecosystem. Previously known as MANTRA DAO, the ecosystem carries a reputation for an open and honest approach to crypto trading, fund-building, and innovation, all part of its goal to make crypto-pioneering personal, safe and secure.   What is the OMniverse? With MANTRA’s rebrand also came the restructuring of MANTRA into the all-encompassing MANTRA ecosystem, otherwise known as the OMniverse. The OMniverse is made up of four stacks that comprise the wide variety of products and services MANTRA offers to both retail and institutional investors. The four stacks are MANTRA Nodes, MANTRA Chain, MANTRA Finance and MANTRA DAO, with each comprising a range of innovative products within MANTRA’s ecosystem.  MANTRA Nodes MANTRA Nodes is the cornerstone of the vertically integrated stack that is the foundation for the OMniverse. The primary function of the node operations is to generate revenue for the business and grow Sherpa community holdings by providing more yield-earning opportunities across multiple blockchains. Additionally, these validator nodes support MANTRA in building a presence on new and emerging blockchain networks and growing it into a larger institutional space as an ecosystem. It also opens up opportunities to expand MANTRA’s multi-chain DeFi ecosystem. MANTRA also offers Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), meaning it can set up validator node operations for both institutions and individuals. The MANTRA Nodes service line also includes node management, retail staking (both on- and off-chain), institutional nodes, and cloud / white-label node development and deployment. MANTRA Chain MANTRA Chain is the protocol for the Cosmos ecosystem. It is interoperable with other blockchains in Cosmos with the IBC module, providing developer tools and an opportunity to build anything from games and web3 applications to secure and decentralized exchanges (DEXs). The network is also EVM-compatible, combining the flexibility and reliability of both the Cosmos and Ethereum ecosystems in a builder-friendly environment.  MANTRA Chain also utilizes a powerful decentralized identify (DID) module for all KYC & AML needs. The module facilitates the development of the products that utilize enhanced features and ecosystems. MANTRA Finance MANTRA Finance aims to be a platform that brings the speed and transparency of DeFi to the established yet opaque TradFi world. The platform will allow for users around the world to trade, issue, and earn from digital assets in a non-custodial and permissionless way. MANTRA DAO Since its inception, MANTRA has always focused on involving its community at every stage, and the transparent governance mechanism is the core that brings the people together. To reach a wider community outside of the OMniverse and Sherpas, M DAO strives to bring this narrative and structure to other projects and their many protocols. The stack offers DAO services that securely increase the efficiency of various DAOs’ business functions, from finance to HR management. For example, some DAO solutions include treasury management, DAO issuance and launchpads, and DAO governance and grants, as well as DAO staking and DeFi. Some successful DAO partnerships include HeliSwap, the first DEX & DAO on the Hedera network and ZENSTAR, the first substrate based money-market built on the Astar network on Polkadot. The OM Token $OM is the native token of the OMniverse and has various utility including:Governance: $OM stakers can issue proposals, participate in governance votes, and suggest developments in various products across the OMniverse.Staking: $OM can be staked directly on MANTRA’s web app or on Binance for passive yield earning.DAO Token Access/ Airdrop Incentives: $OM stakers get special access to new DAO token issuances as well as partnering DAO token airdrops. Now that you’re familiar with the essential stacks that make up MANTRA as an ecosystem, let’s look at how you can buy MANTRA’s tokens, $OM, on Binance.  How to buy $OM on Binance   1. Log in to your Binance account and go to [Trade] -> [Spot]. 2. Type “OM” in the search bar to view the available trading pairs. We will use OM/BUSD as an example. 3. Go to the [Spot] box and enter the amount of $OM you want to buy. In this example, we will use a market order. Click [Buy OM] to confirm your order, and the purchased $OM will be credited to your Spot Wallet. How to stake $OM on Binance? 1. Log in to your Binance account and go to [Earn] -> [Binance Earn]. 2. Type “OM” in the search bar to view the available staking period (30, 60 or 90 days) and click [Stake Now]. 4. Enter the amount of OM you would like to stake and click [confirm]. Closing thoughts While MANTRA aims to create a secure, safe, and personal ecosystem for its users, it’s always important to remember that the crypto industry is not free of risks. Familiarizing yourself with MANTRA’s infrastructure will help you understand the services provided within the OMniverse.   Source: What Is MANTRA (OM)?

Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index shows "extreme fear" Bitcoin moved between $16.3K and $17.0K on Wednesday and is changing hands Thursday morning closer to the lower bound of yesterday's range. Some pressure on crypto comes from more wary financial markets, where major indices are down. The total capitalisation of the crypto market has fallen by 1.7% to $830bn in the last 24 hours. However, the overall quieter trading pattern should be noted after the surge in volatility in recent days. Crypto Fear and Greed Index was down 3 points to 20 by Thursday and remains in a state of "extreme fear". On the technical analysis side, Bitcoin's failure to cross $17.0K looks like a corrective rebound to lock in profits before a new round of declines. This scenario will only become main after the price approaches local lows near $15.8K, opening the way to $12K. Ethereum is under more pressure, forming a sequence of declining intraday extremes. At the current price near $1200, we can see the dam-breaking effect at levels below $1100. A similar pattern is seen in the overall cryptocurrency market capitalisation chart, where we see local reversals from lower levels. Pantera Capital's predicts a decline of Bitcoin price According to The Wall Street Journal, crypto lending platform BlockFi is preparing to file for bankruptcy. The company has acknowledged significant exposure to the FTX exchange. Last week BlockFi suspended customer withdrawals. The collapse of FTX affected too many companies, which could extend the crypto winter to the end of 2023, according to cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase. Many institutional funds are stuck on FTX, causing increased distrust in the industry. Stablecoins dominance has reached a new high of 18%. Bitcoin will fall heavily in November and hit "the bottom", forecasts Pantera Capital's crypto fund. BTC will then rise to $36,000 ahead of the next halving in March 2024 and continue to grow to a new record peak of $149,000. According to the average results of a survey conducted by BDC Consulting among 53 cryptocurrency executives, bitcoin will stop the decline at $11,479. Meanwhile, over half of top executives intend to increase their investments in cryptocurrencies and have no plans to cut back.

1. Amid a shortage of physical cash, Nigeria is experiencing violent protests. Nigeria was facing violent protests this week. There was a shortage of physical cash following cash withdrawal restrictions imposed by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the redesign of its banknotes. The redesign has left old bills of the local naira currency useless and prompted citizens to swap them for new ones. However, the policy has led to a scarcity of cash, disrupted businesses, and sparked violent protests nationwide. To combat the problem, some Nigerians have turned to stablecoins and Bitcoin as a solid store of value and censorship-resistant currency, offering 24/7 instantaneous access to funds at affordable charges, and protection against rising inflation in Nigeria. As a result, demand for Bitcoin in Nigeria is reaching new highs, with the Bitcoin Premium recently rising by 60% to $38,000 per BTC. 2. Germany's top bank will start offering digital assets Germany's second-largest bank by assets, DZ Bank, has announced it will offer digital asset custody services to its institutional clients. The bank has partnered with Swiss firm Metaco and orchestration platform Harmonize to provide digital currencies to its institutional clients. The move comes as DZ Bank aims to offer crypto securities to clients under the German eWpG. The platform was selected after an extensive proof-of-concept and diligence process and was deemed a powerful solution fit for the bank's intended operating model. The bank had €297bn ($332bn) in assets under custody at the end of 2022. Metaco has partnered with major financial institutions like Citibank and Societe Generale in the last 12 months to enable institutional clients to access digital asset offerings. 3. Additional charges for SBF and violation of release conditions Sam Bankman-Fried has been accused of four additional crimes in a new indictment, including illegal donations for political purposes. SBF denies the charges. The indictment also reveals that SBF has stolen billions of dollars from customers and investors to support FTX and Alameda Research. The accusation also claims that Bankman-Fried hid some political donations by making them under the names of other FTX employees. Read next: Pfizer Is In The Early Stages Of An Acquisition Of Biotech Company Seagen, Twitter's Staff Has Shrunk Since Elon Musk Took Over| FXMAG.COM SBF has agreed to hire an independent technical expert to consult on the terms of his bail after violating the terms of his bail by using an encrypted communication app and VPN. The defence also agreed that SBF would not have access to encrypted communication apps or services. Private citizens are writing to the judge asking for SBF's bail to be revoked. 4. Coinbase reports a decrease in revenue and transaction volume in 2022 On February 21, Coinbase published a letter to shareholders, presenting the financial results for the last quarter of 2022 and the whole year. It was mentioned that throughout 2022, total transaction volume fell by 50% compared to the previous year, and transaction revenues fell by 66%. The cause of such a result was the cryptocurrency market collapses, such as the bankruptcy of Luna and Terra in May and FTX in November 2022, which caused a 64% drop in cryptocurrency values and affected Coinbase revenue. Nevertheless, the company remained in good financial shape thanks to the diversity of revenue from subscriptions and services, as well as cost reductions that affected revenue growth in the fourth quarter of 2022. Coinbase believes it is in a good position to deal with regulations in the cryptocurrency industry, and the cryptocurrency markets have seen improvement in the first months of 2023. 5. Matt Hancock and the "From Ukraine With Love" NFT collection British MP Matt Hancock continues his mission to support blockchain technology through a new NFT collection called "From Ukraine With Love". The collection consists of works painted by Ukrainian artist Oleg Mischenko before the war and will be sold at an NFT gallery in Mayfair, London, on Monday, February 27. Proceeds from the sale will be donated to the Ukraine humanitarian appeal of CARE International UK. Read next: BNP Paribas Sued For Providing Financial Services To Companies That Allegedly Contribute To Deforestation Of The Amazon Rainforest| FXMAG.COM 6. Circle encourages regulators to use blockchain technology in financial services Circle, the creator of the USDC stablecoin, has presented its recommendations to the Irish Central Bank regarding introducing innovative financial products based on blockchain technology. Circle highlights the benefits public blockchains can bring consumers, including increased competition, privacy protection, improved financial education, and the ability to track transactional data on the blockchain. It was also suggested that regulators should assess transactional data on the blockchain and encourage early engagement by firms offering innovative financial products before submitting a formal application. 7. IMF calls for coordinated action over fears crypto could undermine the global monetary system The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised concerns over the impact of crypto on the effectiveness of monetary policy, financial stability, and fiscal risks, calling for a "coordinated response" from member countries. While the IMF acknowledged that strict bans are not the best option, it suggested that cryptocurrencies should not be granted official currency or legal tender status. To address the risks posed by crypto, the organization recommended a framework of nine elements to help member countries develop a comprehensive, consistent, and coordinated policy response, including the unambiguous tax treatment of crypto assets and alternative solutions for cross-border payments and finance. 8. Matrix legend stands on the side of crypto Hollywood actor Keanu Reeves has praised cryptocurrency, stating that dismissing it or criticizing its volatility would only make it better in terms of how it is safeguarded. Reeves, who previously revealed that he owned cryptocurrency, also talked about his involvement with the Futureverse Foundation, a charitable organization launched by New Zealand-based non-fungible token and blockchain technology company Non-Fungible Labs. Reeves, who is an advisor to the foundation along with partner Alexandra Grant, said they are trying to take the technology that people are interested in and give opportunities to artists with different viewpoints. 9. BIS chief says central banks won with crypto. Agustín Carstens, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), claimed that fiat has won the battle with cryptocurrency, but the crypto community disagrees. Carstens highlighted that "technology doesn’t make for trusted money" and criticised cryptocurrency in an interview with Bloomberg. The BIS has emphasised the need for regulation and risk management in the crypto space. However, Carsten's comment sparked anger, satire and corrections among the crypto community. Bitcoin maximalist Ray Youssef called it "a distraction with no ROI," while Lady Anarki said that "fiat and crypto are essentially the same exact scam." Bitcoin is up over 40% from its 2022 lows, and Lightning Network adoption flourishes, while the community appears increasingly vocal. 10. US congressman tries to block CBDC US Congressman Tom Emmer has proposed a bill called the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act, which aims to prevent the Federal Reserve from launching a central bank digital currency (CBDC). Emmer stated that any CBDC should uphold the principles of privacy, individual sovereignty and free market competitiveness, and warned that an alternative could result in a "dangerous surveillance tool". The bill would prevent the Fed from issuing a digital dollar, using CBDCs to implement monetary policy, or using them to control the economy.

SEC Chair's Opinion on Crypto Assets as Securities Stirs Controversy Among Lawyers and Experts Gary Gensler, SEC Chair, reiterates view that all cryptocurrencies except Bitcoin are subject to US securities laws, arguing that crypto projects aim to attract investors into buying tokens, making them securities. However, lawyers dispute Gensler's claim, stating that the SEC has no authority to regulate crypto assets until they are individually classified by the court. SEC Commissioner Hester Pierce urges Congress to expedite the legislative process for official crypto asset classification, while the SEC will continue its enforcement actions against crypto assets until then. IMF Prefers Cryptocurrency Regulation Over Outright Ban, Says Managing Director During the G20 finance ministers meetings in India, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expressed a preference for regulating cryptocurrencies instead of enforcing an outright ban. According to Georgieva, the agency is in favour of regulating the digital currency space, with its first objective being to distinguish between central bank digital currencies supported by the state, and publicly issued cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. Read next: The Days Of Relentless Rate Hikes By Bank Of Canada May Be About To Draw To A Close| FXMAG.COM While Georgieva warned that the option of banning cryptocurrencies remained on the table if they posed a greater risk to financial stability, she suggested that regulation was a better option due to predictability and consumer protection. Coinbase Suspends Trade in Binance USD Stablecoin Due to Regulatory Investigation Coinbase, the second-largest crypto exchange globally, will stop trading Binance USD (BUSD) stablecoin from March 13, due to US regulators investigating BUSD as a possible unregistered security. After reviewing BUSD, Coinbase stated that it no longer meets the listing standards. BUSD, the third-largest stablecoin, currently holds a market capitalization of $10.6bn, according to Coinpaprika . Paxos, the operator of BUSD, received a Wells notice from the US Securities and Exchange Commission, indicating possible enforcement action, earlier this month.

Moody's Downgrade Boosts Bitcoin Amid Crisis. Moody's has downgraded its outlook on the US banking system from "stable" to "negative" following the recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Bank, and Signature Bank. Despite this, bank stocks have rallied. Moody's cites low rates and pandemic-related stimulus as factors complicating bank operations, and expects a US recession later this year. The recent bank collapses have contributed to Bitcoin's surge to its highest level since June, exceeding $26,000. Trezor Bitcoin analyst Josef Tětek suggests that the current banking crisis may lead to Bitcoin emerging as a safe haven and risk-off asset, as it offers a more secure, transparent, and efficient financial system. Read next: Mike Novogratz seems to see some positives in the banking crisis for Bitcoin and gold | FXMAG.COM Crypto Prices, Stocks Rise Amid Uncertainty Bitcoin's price increased by 2.1% and traded around $25,000, while other cryptocurrencies such as Ether, BNB, and MATIC also experienced gains. Crypto-related stocks, including Coinbase, MicroStrategy, and Block, rose amid market uncertainty and ongoing banking turmoil. These positive movements come as distressed bank Credit Suisse secured a $54 billion line of credit.

Summary:  The Fed delivered a rate hike as most expected and largely failed to adjust forward projections for policy, but did note that credit conditions are likely to weigh on the economy. The market thoroughly ignored the Fed’s rhetoric and forecasts and continues to look for rate cuts later this year. While Fed Chair Powell spoke at the post-meeting press conference, US Treasury Secretary Yellen unsettled markets by indicating no comprehensive depositor insurance. What is our trading focus? US equities (US500.I and USNAS100.I): it is all about deposits, recession, and credit S&P 500 futures are rallying from yesterday’s lows post the FOMC rate hike despite the Fed’s action will increase the pressure on smaller banks and increase the likelihood of a recession. Today’s focus is how banking stocks will react to the FOMC decision and especially how deposits will develop from here. The rate hike will increase the incentive for depositors to move money from deposits to money market funds adding potentially further funding stress. We remain cautious on equities as the economy will likely move closer to a recession due to yesterday’s rate decision. European equities (EU50.I): focus is back on banks post FOMC rate hike STOXX 50 futures have turned around in early trading after being lower on the open as equities initially responded negatively to the FOMC rate decision of hiking the policy rate by 25 bps. The consensus is that higher policy rates at a high speed coupled with many bonds in the held-to-maturity were causing the problems for smaller banks so the reaction in equities today seems odd. We remain cautious on the banking sector and the real estate sector in the coming weeks. Read next: Yesterday's UK inflation prints have undermined previous MPC narrative| FXMAG.COM Hong Kong equities advance as Tencent’s solid results and upbeat outlook Hang Seng Index rallied for the third day in a row, led by Tencent (00700:xhkg) and pear internet names. Tencent surged nearly 7% after reporting stronger-than-expected online adverting revenues. The tech giant’s upbeat outlook of 2023, citing a broad-based recovery in consumer activities in China added to the market optimism. Orient Overseas (00316:xhkg) soared 16% after the container shipping liner beat earnings estimates. Lenovo (00992:xhkg) jumped 11% on its plan to develop new products based on the Nvidia Drive Thor chip. In A-shares, CSI300 advanced nearly 1%, led by semiconductors and financials. FX: Dollar weakens with EUR and JPY as winners on Powell/Yellen shocks The Fed hiked rates by 25 bps and inserted new language into the policy statement noting forward concern (more below) and the market thoroughly ignored the “dot plot” that largely maintained the December policy forecasts. The dollar fell, but it was Treasury Secretary Yellen’s statements deny a blanket backstopping of all bank deposits that spooked markets and changed the tone far more than the Fed, with US banks and rates under huge pressure and the USD lower again overnight after a mixed close yesterday, with EURUSD well above 1.0900 this morning and USDJPY slumping below 131.00. Focus shifts to BOE today after re-acceleration in inflation yesterday, although sterling has weakened again sharply, possibly in recognition that the BoE may stick to its forecasts on inflation as Governor Bailey seems a reluctant inflation fighter. Crude oil dips on Powell/Yellen double blow to sentiment Crude oil prices trade lower following a three-day bounce that saw both WTI and Brent retrace more than 38.2% of their recent drop. Earlier on Wednesday the market received a boost from a mixed EIA stock report with rising production and rising crude stocks being offset by big draws in fuel products as US total oil and fuel exports reached a record 12.3m b/d. However, risk sentiment received a fresh setback after an expected 25 bps rate hike was followed up by comments from Yellen that the government was not considering “blanket” deposit insurance to stabilize the banking system. Macro-economic developments remain firmly in the driving seat and will continue to dictate the short-term direction, but the combination of a weaker dollar and most of the selling/long liquidation already done the downside risk may be limited. Gold rallies with bonds on hike less, cut later focus The Fed’s 25bps rate hike came in-line with market expectations, but the push back on market expectations of about 100bps of rate cuts for this year failed to materialize, and together with a softer dollar and Yellen’s message that the government is unlikely to unilaterally expand deposit insurance, they added fresh upside momentum to gold, climbing to $1983. The fact gold earlier in the week managed to find support already at $1933, the 38.2% retracement of the recent surge, suggests gold remains in a strong uptrend. However, until the FOMC’s and the markets year-end rate expectations get in line - currently apart by almost one percent - golds upside potential towards a fresh record high may take longer to achieve. ETF buying continues with total holdings up another 12 tons this week on top of the 21 tons that was bought last week. Treasury yields plummeted and may have much more to go The treasury market ignored Fed forecasts and focused on the Fed’s shift in forward concern on credit conditions, but especially Yellen’s statement on bank deposit guarantees (more below). Yields on the 2-year tumbled more than 25 bps to below 3.9% in early trading and the 10-year yield fell 18 bps to 3.43%. What is going on? US risks widespread bank runs from vulnerable banks starting today With US Treasury Secretary Yellen’s commenting "I have not considered or discussed anything having to do with blanket insurance or guarantees of deposits”, the risk of a stampede-like bank run from smaller regional lenders and even some mid-tier and larger banks has risen sharply, one that the Silicon Valley Bank situation shows can happen with alarming speed, given the ease of digital transfers. JP Morgan analyst estimates that some $1 trillion of deposits have already left the most vulnerable banks, about half of that since the SVB collapse of two weeks ago. Certainly, a situation of sufficient severity will trigger the inevitable official response to ensure that no systemic crisis is allowed to balloon and drive dramatic market dysfunction, but the follow-on impact into the economy could be severe on the disruption of credit flows (as alluded to in the Fed’s monetary policy statement last night, even as it touted the solidity of the system). Fed raised rates by 25bps but considered a pause The FOMC lifted the Federal Funds Rate target by 25bps to 4.75-5.00% and the updated economic projections left the terminal rate forecast unchanged at 5.1% while the 2024 rate view was adjusted higher to 4.25% from 4.125% earlier. Chair Powell in his comments later also said that they considered a pause but the consensus was for a rate hike, and that no participants had rate cuts in their base line scenario for this year. The market completely ignored this and redoubled its anticipation of rate cuts during the evening, particulary after US Secretary Treasury Yellen spoke (see below). The new FOMC statement removed reference to ‘ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate’, though added that ‘some additional policy firming may be appropriate’. The Fed expressed confidence in the banking system, stating that it was ‘sound’ and ‘resilient’, but added that the “recent developments” were likely to result in tighter credit conditions and will weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation. Janet Yellen says Treasury unlikely to unilaterally expand deposit insurance Treasury Secretary’s comments hit the wires during Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. She said that regulators are unlikely to provide “blanket” deposit insurance to stabilize the US banking system. This brought back concerns on the US banking sector, especially the smaller banks, and risks of more bank runs arise as the US opens on Thursday. The KBW regional bank index slumped 5.7% while the broader KBW bank index was down 4.7%. Economic risks also escalated amid tighter bank lending standards. Tencent’s small growth improvement excites investors Tencent shares rally 7% in Hong Kong trading after the company announced Q4 earnings yesterday after the close reporting Q4 revenue of CNY 145bn vs est. CNY 144.5bn driven by stronger than expected gains in online advertising revenue suggesting underlying improvement in the economy. On the conference call management says that advertisers in China are getting optimistic about the economy recovery and this was the piece investors were looking for. Coinbase gets Wells notice from the SEC Coinbase, the biggest publicly traded cryptocurrency exchange, says it has got a Wells notice from the SEC which means that the SEC will bring an enforcement action against the exchange. Coinbase says it could relate to its spot market or Coinbase Prime (its institutional offering). Coinbase shares are down 10% in extended trading on this news. What are we watching next? Bank of England – hike and guidance expectations justified The very hot February CPI numbers yesterday relative to consensus expectations have the market pricing very high odds for a 25-bp rate hike from the Bank of England today despite the most guidance suggested the Bank is hoping that it can shift to a pausing its rate hike cycle, and Governor Bailey out in recent weeks suggesting there is no guarantee further rate hikes are needed. Observant economists note that at least one measure of the inflation level of most concern – core Services CPI – is still actually slightly below the BoE’s own forecasts even if it rose sharply in YoY terms in February. Interestingly, sterling is heading into this meeting on its back foot and traders should tread carefully here as the Bailey BoE has been difficult to pin down in terms of likely policy moves. Last night was likely the last rate hike of the cycle We suspect that the credit contraction unfolding in the banking system will force the hands of the Fed and we may have seen the last rate hike in this cycle yesterday. U.S. banks, according to the latest survey done by the Fed in January, have already been tightening lending standards sharply before the recent turmoil. Given what has been happening over these two weeks, banks will refrain further from making loans and may cause credit growth to slow or even to contract, especially if deposits are flighty. U.S. Treasury yields, especially in the 2-year to the 5-year segment may fall further. Historically, when the Fed pauses, the short end of the curve performs better than the longer end and the yield curve will steepen. Earnings to watch Today’s key earnings reports are Accenture and Darden Restaurant, both are reporting before the market open, with the latter being a good barometer for US discretionary spending. Darden has a strong same-store network of restaurants and has so far lifted menu prices less than inflation, which has kept customers coming. Analysts expect FY23 Q3 (ending 28 Feb) revenue growth at 11% y/y and EBITDA of $435mn, up from $392mn a year ago. Accenture is expected to report FY23 Q2 (ending 28 Feb) revenue growth of 3% y/y, which is a significant slowdown from 25% y/y from a year ago, as corporate consultancy and technology spending slows on cost cutting. This week’s earnings releases: Thursday: China Mobile, Accenture, General Mills, Darden Restaurants Friday: China Merchants Bank, Meituan, China Petroleum & Chemical Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0830 – Swiss National Bank Rate Decision 0900 – Norway Norges Bank Rate Decision 1100 – Turkey Central Bank Rate Decision 1200 – UK Bank of England Rate Decision 1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 1400 – US Feb. New Home Sales 1400 – Sweden Riksbank Governor Thedeen to speak 1430 – EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change 1500 – Eurozone Mar. Consumer Confidence 2330 – Japan Feb. National CPI 0001 – UK Mar. GfK Consumer Confidence Source: Global Market Quick Take: Europe – March 23, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Crypto Industry News: Brian Armstrong, head of Coinbase, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are preparing for a showdown. This could affect the future of the cryptocurrency industry. Armstrong has strongly expressed his dissatisfaction with the SEC's approach, which appears to be clearly targeting the broader crypto industry. Armstrong mercilessly criticized the SEC via Twitter.     He alleged that instead of striving to understand companies in the cryptocurrency industry, more massive logs are still thrown at their feet. He argues that the SEC - as a state regulator - should instruct similar companies. Guide how to operate in accordance with the regulations, instead of fighting them in court. The CEO of Coinbase has made it clear that he is proud to represent the industry in court in the search for clarity of rules for the crypto space. This seems especially important in light of the fact that the regulator carefully looked at Coinbase's activities before agreeing to its listing on the stock exchange.     It seems that Armstrong and his team are determined to lead the fight for the future of the cryptocurrency industry. In response to the SEC chairman's call, Armstrong explained that there is no pathway in the current system that would allow it to function legally. He also pointed to conflicting statements issued by the SEC and the Futures Trading Commission on the differences between a security and a commodity.       Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair has made a V-shape reversal from the lows seen at the level of $25,442 and is currently trading above 50 and 100 MA around the level of $27,000. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $27,452 and $27,570. The key short them technical resistance is the swing high located at the level of $28,446 and only a sustained breakout above this level would be considered more bullish. The intraday technical support is seen at $25,892. The strong and positive momentum on the H4 time frame chart supports the short-term bullish outlook for BTC.   Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $28,056 WR2 - $27,490 WR1 - $27,126 Weekly Pivot - $26,917 WS1 - $26,553 WS2 - $26,343 WS3 - $25,770      Trading Outlook: The bulls broken above the gamechanging level located at $25,442, so now the mid-term outlook for BTC is bullish. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $32,350. As long as the level of 19,572 is not clearly violated, there is a chance for a long-term up trend to continue.        

Crypto Industry News: Over the past week, BTC miners have been sending their Bitcoins to exchanges en masse. It is worth adding that according to the Glassnode analytical platform, this is the largest BTC transfer to trading platforms in the last 5 years.   The cryptocurrency community is watching the actions of the SEC and sees the impact on the market. The miners' actions may be a preventive sale of their BTC, for fear of further declines. The first cryptocurrency established by Satoshi Nakamoto is still going strong. Miners are constantly mining more Bitcoins, and the value of this cryptocurrency is currently around $26,000 for one BTC.   Bitcoin is currently more than 60% away from its ATH. The outflow of BTC to trading platforms is very clearly visible and it is the largest transfer in the last 5 years. Nevertheless, the miners of the first cryptocurrency still hold 1.829 million BTC, which is worth about $50 billion in total. The BTC transfer was most visible after the actions of the American SEC regarding the Coinbase and Binance exchanges.   On June 11, experts from Glassnode reported a significant BTC transfer by miners in just a week. USD 70.8 million worth of Bitcoins entered the exchanges.   This is the third record BTC inflow, but lower by USD 30.2 million from the record USD 101 million recorded during the 2021 bull market.   Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair has been seen rallying over 17% from the low made at the level of $24,753, so the last local high made at the time of writing the analysis was located at $28,996. The bulls had broken above the technical resistance located at $28,446 and now this level will work as the technical support. The market conditions are extremely overbought on the H4 time frame chart, but the next target for bulls is still seen at the level of $32,350.    

After breaking the key resistance level of 21,700 in March, Bitcoin pulled the quotes of popular altcoins into the bull market zone. In the middle of last month, the BTC/USDT pair again became the driving force behind the positive dynamics of the digital currency market. In just two days, on June 20 and 21, the BTC/USDT exchange rate grew by 12%, and at the end of June, the pair updated its 12-month high at the 31,443 mark. The sharp growth of Bitcoin, which Ethereum later joined, occurred amid several positive news for the crypto market.     In particular, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in June received applications from five major asset management companies: WisdomTree Inc., Invesco Ltd., Valkyrie Funds, Fidelity Investments, and BlackRock Inc. to create a new investment product (spot Bitcoin ETF). Companies Citadel, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab launched their own decentralized crypto exchange. At the end of the month, another of the world's largest investment companies, Invesco, applied to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF.   The rapid growth of interest from large corporations in cryptocurrencies may also be due to the anticipation of their approval by global regulators as a means of payment. Thus, after the Fed meeting that ended on June 14, Chairman Jerome Powell announced the need for the Fed to be involved in the regulation of the stablecoin market, which he called a "form of money," not securities. If the Fed approves stablecoins as a means of payment, they will become a real alternative to fiat money. At the end of last month, the largest U.S. asset management company, BlackRock, also filed an application for a spot Bitcoin ETF to the SEC. After these reports, trading volumes in the crypto market began to grow and, at the beginning of last week, already amounted to 19.5 billion dollars. Buyer interest in stablecoins is supported, among other things, by an unstable geopolitical situation in the world, remaining tense amid a military conflict in Ukraine and a brewing conflict in Taiwan, threatening a direct clash between the U.S. and China.   Negative points for the crypto market include the continued pressure from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on leading digital platforms Binance and Coinbase, which is also spreading in European countries. In the UK, the Binance branch (Binance Markets Limited) will no longer be able to operate in the country, as it lost its license from British regulators. Binance branches in Germany and Belgium are also in a difficult position. At the end of last month, it also became known that U.S.   President Joe Biden promised to reform the tax system, "eliminating loopholes for Bitcoin and crypto traders." This could specifically refer to the short-term trading operations of crypto traders, who sell and buy ba ck cryptocurrencies in a short period of time, allowing them to avoid higher tax rates. Moreover, speaking at the European Central Bank Forum last week, Fed Chair Powell confirmed the possibility of further interest rate hikes, which could support the U.S. dollar, including in relation to cryptocurrencies (in pairs with the USDT stablecoin).   Therefore, despite the bullish sentiment of Bitcoin buyers, a somewhat contradictory situation has developed in the digital currency market, not allowing Bitcoin and other popular altcoins to develop a more confident upward trend.  

“During a gold rush, sell shovels” One of the select few firms whose ability to capture the value of AI is already clear as day is GPU manufacturer Nvidia. As the leading supplier of the computing required to train AI models (for example, those by OpenAI), Nvidia has achieved conspicuous revenue growth in the past year, mainly driven by the eagerness of companies to acquire GPUs so as not to fall between the cracks of the AI rage. In late May, Nvidia said it expects revenue of $11bn in the second quarter of 2023, far surpassing the average analyst forecast of $7.18bn. This AI hoarding has sent Nvidia past the $1tn valuation mark, alongside only five other firms, quadrupling its stock price since its 1-year low in October 2022. The $750bn expansion to Nvidia’s $250bn market capitalisation less than 12 months ago is a clear reminder that AI is a speculative market, by which the imagination of investors has persuaded them that something truly great lies ahead. The story of Nvidia points to the adage that “during a gold rush, sell shovels”. This suggests that it’s more profitable to provide the required infrastructure to those pursuing a booming trend than to pursue the craze itself. In the crypto rush of 2021, Coinbase profited heavily by selling picks and shovels by facilitating crypto trading, similar to Nvidia now. In due time, the crypto bubble burst, shortening Coinbase’s revenue markedly and bringing an up to 90% drop in its stock price in a single year. Time will tell whether Nvidia is in an everlasting gold rush or will follow Coinbase’s “the higher you climb, the harder you fall” tale.      

In the shadows of the financial world, a web of high-stakes transactions is unfolding, setting the stage for significant shifts in the global landscape. As these intriguing developments continue to evade the spotlight, we delve into the intricacies of these deals, their implications, and their potential to reshape industries. While the headlines may be dominated by larger-than-life stories, it's often the unassuming deals that hold the power to shape our financial world. In this article, we pull back the curtain to reveal the hidden maneuvers driving the market's undercurrents.   Microsoft's Game-Changing Acquisition Microsoft's audacious move to acquire Activision Blizzard for a staggering $69 billion has raised eyebrows. With the UK's antitrust regulator hinting at a green light, this deal could redefine the gaming industry's landscape.   NBA's Golden State Warriors Stake Sale  The minority owners of the NBA's Golden State Warriors are discreetly exploring a 10% stake sale, potentially valuing the team at an astounding $7 billion. Could this be the next game-changer in professional sports?   Vodafone's Spanish Unit in the Spotlight  Vodafone Group's hushed talks with Zegona Communications about a potential deal for its ailing Spanish unit could lead to a transaction worth over $5.3 billion. Will this strategic move revive Vodafone's fortunes?   Silicon Carbide's Silent Surge Four Japanese conglomerates are quietly vying for a stake in Coherent's silicon carbide business, valuing it at up to $5 billion. This investment could have far-reaching implications for the automotive industry's semiconductor supply chain.   Petroliam Nasional's Indian Investment  Malaysia's state oil giant, Petroliam Nasional, is on the brink of securing a $1.6 billion deal for a 25% stake in India's AM Green ammonia unit. How will this investment impact the global energy landscape?   Costa Group Holdings: A Tasty Deal  Food produce supplier Costa Group Holdings has agreed to be acquired by a consortium led by US private equity firm Paine Schwartz Partners, valuing the company at $963 million. What's cooking in the world of food supply?   SBB's Swedish Portfolio Shuffle Struggling Swedish landlord SBB has gained a discreet cash infusion of $720 million by selling a further stake in its portfolio of school buildings to Brookfield Asset Management. What's behind this property play?   A Mining Deal Down Under  Australian mining-focused consulting services provider Ausenco is poised for a $578 million acquisition led by Todd Boehly's holding company, Eldridge Industries. What riches lie beneath the Australian soil?   Pendragon's Revamped Offer UK automotive retailer Pendragon has received an enhanced offer from Hedin Mobility Group and US-based PAG International for a buyout worth $548 million. Will this deal steer the company in a new direction?   TotalEnergies' North Sea Retreat TotalEnergies' decision to divest its remaining 40% stake in UK North Sea gas fields within the Greater Laggan Area signals a strategic shift. What's driving this exit, and who's eyeing these offshore assets? Venture Capital's Silent Rise: While the giants make their moves, the venture capital scene is quietly abuzz with startups securing substantial investments. From insurtech to robotics, biotech to digital assets, we uncover the rising stars in the startup world.