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For short positions on EUR/USD: Sellers capitulated, and today their hopes are dwindling. The divergent policies of the Fed and the ECB, as well as aggressive statements from European officials regarding further inflation fighting measures, maintain demand for the euro, which is used by the big players. The only thing the bears do is to protect the new resistance level at 1.0997. I will go short on this mark after a rise and a false breakout. It may give a sell signal, pushing EUR/USD to a major support level at 1.0956, formed yesterday.   A decline below this level as well as an upward retest could trigger a downward movement to 1.0911. A more distant target will be the 1.0862 level where I recommend locking in profits. If EUR/USD rises during the European session and bears fail to protect 1.0997, the bullish trend will continue. In this case, I would advise you to postpone short positions until a false breakout of the resistance level of 1.1029. You could sell EUR/USD at a bounce from 1.1029, keeping in mind a downward intraday correction of 30-35 pips.   COT report: According to the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for June 13, there was a drop in long and short positions. However, this report was released even before the Federal Reserve's decision on the interest rate. The regulator decided to skip a rate hike in June this year, which significantly affected market sentiment. For this reason, one should not pay too much attention to the report. Demand for the euro remains high as the ECB remains committed to aggressive tightening. The euro is likely to maintain a bullish bias. The best medium-term strategy is to go long on the decline. The COT report showed that long non-commercial positions decreased by 9,922 to 226,138, while short non-commercial positions fell by 3,323 to 74,316. At the end of the week, the total non-commercial net position dropped and amounted to 151 822 against 158 224. The weekly closing price increased and amounted to 1.0794 against 1.0702.  

June 29 macroeconomic calendar Today, the US will see the release of its weekly jobless claims data. Figures are projected to grow. Continuing claims are forecast to rise to 1,765,000 from 1,759,000 while initial ones are likely to rise to 265,000 versus 264,000. Trading plan for EUR/USD on June 29 The pair may trade horizontally for a while or bounce due to a sharp price change the day before. Should quotes stay firm below 1.0900, we would see a fall in value. Trading plan for GBP/USD on June 29 Due to a sharp price change in the market, an oversold signal could be generated, which would mean that the pair could come to a standstill or bounce. However, should speculators not respond to technical signals, the price would fall to 1.2550.             What's on chart The candlestick chart shows graphical white and black rectangles with upward and downward lines. While conducting a detailed analysis of each individual candlestick, it is possible to notice its features intrinsic to a particular time frame: the opening price, the closing price, and the highest and lowest price. Horizontal levels are price levels, in relation to which a stop or reversal of the price may occur. They are called support and resistance levels. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price reversed in the course of its history. This color highlighting indicates horizontal lines which can exert pressure on prices in the future. Upward/downward arrows signal a possible future price direction.  

Details of the economic calendar on August 7 Monday was traditionally accompanied by an empty macroeconomic calendar. Important statistical data in the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States were not published.   Analysis of trading charts from August 7 The EUR/USD exchange rate dropped below the 1.1000 level again, indicating a prevailing bearish sentiment in the market. It should be noted that the current movement is characterized as a correction from the medium-term trend peak. Regarding the GBP/USD, the slowing growth rate may also indicate a prevailing bearish sentiment among market participants. It's important to highlight that, according to tactical analysis, there's a three-week corrective move from the local peak of the medium-term trend, during which a slight pullback has occurred. Essentially, the euro and the British pound continue to decline relative to the U.S. dollar, and the current movement can be seen as a temporary deviation from the main trend.   Economic calendar for August 8 The speeches by several representatives of the U.S. Federal Reserve System are of particular interest today, as it is expected that no significant economic indicators will be published. EUR/USD trading plan for August 8 If the euro against the U.S. dollar consistently stays below the 1.1000 level, it may lead to an increase in short positions and a further drop to 1.0900. However, if the price holds above the 1.1050 level, traders will consider a bullish scenario. In that case, a subsequent recovery phase of the euro rate is possible, which may conclude the current market correction.   GBP/USD trading plan for August 8 If the quote remains stable below the 1.2700 level, the bearish scenario becomes relevant within the correction framework. This will lead to an increase in short positions and possibly an update of the correction's low. At the same time, a bullish scenario implies a gradual recovery in the value of the British pound relative to the ongoing correction. A primary technical signal for a bullish scenario might emerge if the price holds above the 1.2800 level during the day.     What's on the charts The candlestick chart type is white and black graphic rectangles with lines above and below. With a detailed analysis of each individual candle, you can see its characteristics relative to a particular time frame: opening price, closing price, intraday high and low. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a price may stop or reverse its trajectory. In the market, these levels are called support and resistance. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price reversed in history. This color highlighting indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the asset's price in the future. The up/down arrows are landmarks of the possible price direction in the future.  

Details of the Economic Calendar on August 21 Monday, as usual, was accompanied by an empty macroeconomic calendar. No significant statistical data were published in the European Union, United Kingdom, or United States.   EUR/USD trading plan for August 22 Stable maintenance of the price above the level of 1.0900 may have a positive effect on the euro rate. However, until we see a breach of the 1.0950 level, we cannot assert with absolute confidence that sellers have eased their pressure and that the correction movement will no longer resume in the market.     GBP/USD trading plan for August 22 In this situation, traders prefer a breakout strategy, as this approach can clearly indicate the subsequent direction of market prices. A decline will become relevant if the price consistently stays below the 1.2650 level. This condition could contribute to the continuation of a downward corrective movement. A rise assumes a gradual recovery of the pound sterling's value relative to the current corrective movement. A primary technical signal of potential growth may appear if the price holds above the 1.2800 mark.   What's on the charts The candlestick chart type is white and black graphic rectangles with lines above and below. With a detailed analysis of each individual candle, you can see its characteristics relative to a particular time frame: opening price, closing price, intraday high and low. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a price may stop or reverse its trajectory. In the market, these levels are called support and resistance. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price reversed in history. This color highlighting indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the asset's price in the future. The up/down arrows are landmarks of the possible price direction in the future.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1). The EUR/USD currency pair may move upward from the level of 1.0863 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to 1.0914, the 23.6% pullback level (blue dotted line). From this level, the price may move down.     Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis - up; Fibonacci levels - up; Volumes - up; Candlestick analysis - up; Trend analysis - up; Bollinger bands - down; Weekly chart - up.   General conclusion: Today, the price may move upward from the level of 1.0863 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to 1.0914, the 23.6% pullback level (blue dotted line). From this level, the price may move down. Alternatively, the price may move upward from the level of 1.0863 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to 1.0903, the 13-day EMA (yellow thin line). From this level, a continued upward movement is possible to the target level at 1.0928, the 21-day EMA (black thin line). In the case of testing this level, the price may move down.

Bearish elements have emerged at a key inflection/resistance level of 15,415. The leader of the AI boom, Nvidia has shaped a bullish exhaustion where its initial price actions’ exuberance dissipated ex-post Q2 earnings result release. 15,135 key short-term resistance to watch on the Nasdaq 100 to maintain bearish bias.   This is a follow-up analysis of our prior reports, “Nasdaq 100 Technical: Minor countertrend rebound” and “D-day for the US stock market as Nvidia earnings loom” published on 15 August 2023 and 23 August 2023 respectively. Click here and here for a recap. The price actions of the US Nas 100 Index (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 futures) have indeed shaped the expected minor countertrend rebound sequence from the 18 August 2023 low of 14,553 and rallied by +5.6% to print an intraday high of 15,375 during yesterday’s 24 August European opening hour. The upward spurt seen on Thursday, 24 August at the start of the Asian session has been primarily attributed to a strong upmove of +6% seen in the share price of Nvidia in the after-US hours trading session of Wednesday, 23 August right after the release of its stellar fiscal Q2 earnings result. Interestingly, the exuberance of Nvidia that has triggered an initial positive feedback loop into the benchmark US stock indices dissipated as the US session got underway yesterday. In addition, several key bearish technical elements emerged which suggests that the potential impulsive down moves of the short to medium-term bearish trend of the US Nas 100 Index has resumed.   Daily bearish Marubozu candlestick formed right a key inflection/resistance zone   Fig 1: US Nas 100 medium-term trend as of 25 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)     Fig 2: Medium-term trend of Nvidia & SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF as of 24 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) As seen in Figure 1, several bearish elements have been detected on the daily chart of the US Nas 100 Index. Firstly, its price actions have formed a firm bearish tone candlestick pattern called “Marubozu”, a long-body candle where its opening price and closing price were almost the same as its intraday high and intraday low respectively.   Secondly, the emergence of such a key bearish reversal candlestick pattern is being formed right at a key inflection zone where the 50-day moving average and the former swing low of 24 July 2023 confluence at a 15,415 resistance level adds credence to a potential future bearish movement in price actions of the Index. Thirdly, the current conditions of the daily RSI oscillator suggest that medium-term downside momentum remains intact. The price actions of Nvidia as seen in Fig 2 have also depicted similar bearish elements where it ended yesterday’s 24 August US session with a daily bearish “Marubozu” and reintegrated below a key resistance of 474.10 with a high-volume reading. The US Nas 100 slipped back below the 20-day moving average Fig 3: US Nas 100 minor short-term trend as of 25 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The hourly chart of the US Nas 100 has indicated the potential continuation of the impulsive down move of its short-term downtrend phase as the minor countertrend rebound from the 18 August 2023 low is likely to be over. Watch the 15,135 key short-term pivotal resistance (also the 20-day moving average) to maintain the bearish tone and a break below 14,580 exposes the next support at 14,300/250 (Fibonacci extension cluster & and a graphical support, refer to the daily chart in Fig 1). On the other hand, a clearance above 15,135 negates the bearish tone to see a retest on the 15,415/460 medium-term resistance.