btc-usd

S&P 500 indeed overcame 4,520, but wavered at the same time – tech didn‘t rise. Volatility though remained meek, inching ever closer to 15, and the option traders also look a bit too complacent at the moment. A modest correction of recent sharp gains is the most likely scenario, especially since rising yields didn‘t sink tech even on a daily basis. Inflation expectations though have risen again, and that‘s tailwind for precious metals, which have taken advantage thereof just as much as of the declining dollar. The yesterday discussed dynamic of yields – inflation – inflation expectations and by extension the dollar, is playing out.

So, the open S&P 500 long position remains solidly profitable while precious metals posture is improving, and commodities are entering a brief consolidation. Still, the yesterday open oil position is nicely in the black too, let alone crypto ones.

Remembering yesterday‘s words:

(…) Coming full circle to precious metals, all that‘s needed

Key Market Shift Confirmed

Key Market Shift Confirmed

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 18.10.2021 11:57
S&P 500 bulls didn‘t look back, and the credit markets spurt at close confirmed. The VIX is getting serious about reaching for early Sep lows, and it shows in the sharp upside reversal of value. The tech upswing hasn‘t been sold into either, and the overall picture is of improving market breadth. Such was my assessment going into yesterday‘s session: (…) So, how far could the bulls make it? 4,420 is one resistance level, and then prior local highs at 4,470 await. The fate of this correction is being decided right there, and it‘s my view we have lower than 4,260 to go still. Therefore, I‘m taking a big picture view, and that is one of continuous inflation surprises to the upside forcing the Fed to taper, which it may or may not do. The policy risks of letting inflation run wild are increasing, so the central bank would find it hard not to deliver fast – the market would consider that a policy mistake. The tone of yesterday‘s FOMC minutes has calmed the Treasury market jitters, and the dollar succumbed. So did inflation expectations, but the shape of the TIP:TLT candle suggests that inflation isn‘t done and out. The Fed is in no position to break it, supply chain pressures, energy crunch and heating job market guarantee that it will be stubbornly with us for longer than the steadily increasing number of quarters Fed officials are admitting to. Counting on the Fed being behind the curve, inflation has the power to derail the S&P 500 bull run – the more so it runs unchecked. The 1970s stagflation brought several wild swings, cutting the index in half as it spent the decade in a trading range. And given the breadth characteristics of the 500-strong index these days, the risks to the downside can‘t be underestimated. What‘s my target of 4,260 in this light? Let‘s consider that from the portfolio point of view – purely stock market traders might prefer to short exhaustion at 4,420 or the approach to 4,470, or balance the short position‘s risk in the stock market with precious metals, cryptos and commodity bets they way I do it – and it‘s working just fine as the precious metals and crypto positions do great while I‘m waiting for retracement in oil and copper (in price or in time). Let‘s check that against the following market performance – bonds aren‘t throwing a tantrum anymore, and continue being pleased by the Fed‘s pronouncements. Inflation expectations haven‘t been revolting over the last three days either. S&P 500 has a great chance of confirming the break back above the 50-day moving average. Neither oil nor copper have offered a reasonably modest retracement of their recent upswings (orderly in the former, stellar in the latter). Reassessing the developments way earlier today (have you already subscribed to enjoy the real-time benefits?) – both from the total portfolio and stock market point of views – has unequivocally led me to join the profitable bullish S&P 500 side (the upswing is likely to easily overcome 4,470s and then 4,510s too) and enjoy the meteoric long copper gains. This represents more conviction behind the still rising tide of accomodative monetary policy (undaunted by the taper prospects, crucially) that is likely to keep positively affecting the open precious metals positions, and further extend the extraordinary crypto gains. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 early stage bullish upswing goes on, and the next two days are likely to confirm – the cyclically sensitive sectors are behaving favorably. That‘s consumer discretionaries, financials and real estate. Credit Markets Quality debt instruments and HYG are rebounding accordingly, and I like particularly the HYG strength. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold is having trouble overcoming $1,800 but miners and silver are saying the issues are only temporary. Lower volume and lower knot yesterday mean that a brief consolidation is likely ahead. Crude Oil Crude oil consolidation in a very narrow range is likely to give way to price gains extension, if oil stocks are to be taken seriously. Likely, they are to. Copper Copper steep upswing continues unabated, and volume isn‘t drying up. Just as in the CRB Index, the path of least resistance is up – and continued copper outperfomance in the face of downgraded economic growth, is the most encouraging sign. Bitcoin and Ethereum The expected crypto pause came, and is again gone. Fresh highs await, and Ethereum is closer to these than Bitcoin is. Summary Stock market rebound has good odds of extending gains, but the most profitable case is to be made when it comes to commodities, cryptos and precious metals. Finally, if ever so slowly, the truth about no transitory but permanently elevated inflation that I had been hammering since early spring, is being acknowledged by even the Fed officials for what it is – let alone the banking sector. Remember, we‘re getting started, and I wouldn‘t be surprised if 5-7% inflation rates were being the predictable, ongoing result. At the same time, inflation isn‘t yet strong enough to force S&P 500 into a bear market, let alone extend the way less than 10% correction just experienced. The path of slowly but surely increasing resistance in the S&P 500 remains up for now as the break above 50-day moving average foretells. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals. Thank you, Monica Kingsley Stock Trading Signals Gold Trading Signals Oil Trading Signals Copper Trading Signals Bitcoin Trading Signals www.monicakingsley.co mk@monicakingsley.co * * * * * All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Attempts To Rebound

Inflation Peaked Again, Right?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 19.10.2021 08:32
S&P 500 upswing continues, and is dealing with the 4,470 resistance – but the credit markets don‘t confirm. Still, that‘s rather a sign of stock market strength than of pending doom. The break back above the 50-day moving average has very good odds of sticking, and the sectoral performance bodes well for further advances. Financials and consumer discretionaries liked the daily upswing in yields while tech and real estates fared well regardless. VIX is likely to probe even lower values, it seems. So, the open S&P 500 long position is working out well, and will likely continue to do so as higher yields just can‘t help the dollar rise. Inflation expectations are again turning up as we have moved from 1H 2021 Fed saying that inflation was transitory to the current phrase that inflation is transitory, but would last longer than we though. The next stage (arriving latest in Q1 2022) will likely be that inflation is sticky but we have tools to deal with it, followed by putting up a happy face that it‘s a good thing we have inflation after all. Silver will likely keep leading gold, and the nearest target for the gold to silver ratio is 73. Crucially, miners keep confirming the upswing, and the copper example bodes well for silver as both metals are essential for the green economy, talking which means that crude oil is also likely to keep rising. Time to extend the commodity profits even more at a time when crypto gains keep doing great. Reflation is slowly giving way to stagflation – GDP growth is slowing down while inflation isn‘t disappearing, to put it mildly. The copper upswing isn‘t so much a function of improving economy prospects but of record low stockpiles. Anyway, much more to look for in the commodities and precious metals bull markets that are likely to appreciate much more than stocks this decade. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook   S&P 500 again gapped up and closed at daily highs – the path of least resistance remains up. Credit Markets Debt instruments declined across the board, showing that adjusting to unyielding inflation takes precedence over raging approval of growth prospects. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold is having trouble overcoming $1,800, but I‘m looking for it to reverse Friday‘s decline before too long if silver and miners are any clue. Crude Oil Crude oil again continues extending gains while oil stocks confirm – dips are to be bought as $90 look to be taken on still this year. Copper Copper steep upswing was finally sold into, a little. Sideways consolidation of the high gained ground looks to be most probable next, followed by even higher prices. Bitcoin and Ethereum Weekend consolidation of crypto gains continues today, and is likely to give way to the bulls reasserting themselves – further gains are ahead. Summary Stock market rebound is likely to continue once HYG kicks in, and overcome 4,520 as the Fed‘s perceptions management regarding inflation seems to be working – Treasuries have mostly bought it, but I‘m looking for the long end of the curve to do particularly poorly. At the same time, inflation isn‘t yet breaking the stock bull run – new highs are ahead this year still, but the same goes for spending some time then in a trading range. Commodities and precious metals led by silver are best positioned to rise once the Fed moves to the above described fresh rationalization as to why inflation is running so hot. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals. Thank you,   Monica Kingsley Stock Trading Signals Gold Trading Signals Oil Trading Signals Copper Trading Signals Bitcoin Trading Signals www.monicakingsley.co mk@monicakingsley.co   * * * * * All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
This Is When Risk-On Returns

Whiff of Risk-Off Next

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 22.10.2021 09:01
S&P 500 indeed overcame 4,520, but wavered at the same time – tech didn‘t rise. Volatility though remained meek, inching ever closer to 15, and the option traders also look a bit too complacent at the moment. A modest correction of recent sharp gains is the most likely scenario, especially since rising yields didn‘t sink tech even on a daily basis. Inflation expectations though have risen again, and that‘s tailwind for precious metals, which have taken advantage thereof just as much as of the declining dollar. The yesterday discussed dynamic of yields – inflation – inflation expectations and by extension the dollar, is playing out. So, the open S&P 500 long position remains solidly profitable while precious metals posture is improving, and commodities are entering a brief consolidation. Still, the yesterday open oil position is nicely in the black too, let alone crypto ones. Remembering yesterday‘s words: (…) Coming full circle to precious metals, all that‘s needed is one serious Fed policy misstep. Just imagine if they didn‘t deliver on Nov taper, or if the rate raising speculation was promptly snuffed while inflation fires just kept burning (no, this can‘t be blamed on supply chains really). The Fed is though well aware of market expectations that they themselves had been feeding since Jun. Still, they‘ll in my view easily make the Monday discussed intentional „mistake“ of attempting to pretend readiness to deploy tools to fight it (pretend is the key word), and finally spin inflation as something good. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 gapped a little higher again, but has met some selling into the close – consolidation looks to be ahead. Credit Markets Credit markets are still risk-on, but likely to take a breather, and that‘s likely to entail a pause in rising yields. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are swinging higher, and miners are on the move too – $1,800 awaits again. Should a whiff of risk-off indeed arrive, look for silver to waver more than gold. Crude Oil Crude oil intraday dip was again bought – too much and lasting downside isn‘t yet to be expected really. It‘s likely to remain a primarily sideways move before another upswing. Copper Copper smartly recovered, but perhaps a bit too fast – the prior two days‘ hesitation though means it won‘t likely keep the downside in check as well as oil did. Bitcoin and Ethereum Crypto gains are being consolidated, and the bears are finally stepping in – the lower knot shows that a downswing targeting $62-60K in Bitcoin might very well develop. Summary Stocks are likely to consolidate prior sharp gains before taking on the ATHs. Depending upon the credit markets risk-off breather I anticipate, the S&P 500 might retreat noticeably below 4,520, but this wouldn‘t mean the end of the upswing. The overall momentum remains on the bulls‘ side, including in commodities undergoing a brief (oil and copper) consolidation. Gold was indeed waiting for a dual confirmation of declining dollar and nominal yields, while silver wasn‘t cautious – and it shouldn‘t as the white metal would be leading this unfolding upswing. Finally, cryptos daily hesitation is adding to the mounting risk-off move odds.   Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.   Thank you,   Monica Kingsley Stock Trading Signals Gold Trading Signals Oil Trading Signals Copper Trading Signals Bitcoin Trading Signals www.monicakingsley.co mk@monicakingsley.co   * * * * * All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.