british pound

Relevance up to 12:00 2022-06-28 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the 1.2317 level and recommended making decisions from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened there. Growth and another unsuccessful attempt to get above 1.2317 by analogy with Friday's attempt to break out of the side channel – all this led to a sell signal for the pound. At the time of writing, the pair has gone down more than 40 points and the pressure on the trading instrument remains. From a technical point of view, nothing has changed, nor has the strategy itself changed. And what were the entry points for the euro?

 

Exchange Rates 27.06.2022 analysis

 

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The lack of statistics on the pound allowed buyers to make another attempt to break 1.2317,

The Pound: will the bears win the market without news?

The Pound: will the bears win the market without news?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 08.12.2021 09:27
The pound was down against the dollar on Tuesday. However, the very nature of the movements, as in the case of the euro rate, was far from ideal and straightforward. The mixed dynamics is clearly visible on the 30-minute timeframe, where the rate consolidated above a strong downtrend line with four pivots. The chart first crossed this line and then decided to resume the downward movement. It was as if the obvious buy signal turned out to be false, and it was possible to exit from it by the downward reversal of the MACD indicator. In general, it turns out that the downward trend of the pound has continued, but at the same time, the annual lows set on November 30th have not been updated so far. It should also be noted that during Tuesday, neither the UK nor the US saw a single important event or publication of economic data. They will not be there today either. Despite this, the volatility increased yesterday, and today, during the session, more calm movements are expected. On the 30-minute timeframe, the pound continues to have a downward trend. Earlier today, the downtrend line was broken, so both the continuation of the fall and a rematch, in which traders will try to return the rate above it, is possible. In general, the worsening epidemiological situation and the introduction of quarantine by the authorities of European countries make investors expect a drop in activity and sentiment by the end of the week.
Pairs With Dollar (USD) And Pound (GBP) To Be Shaken Shortly!? Let’s Follow EURUSD, USDCAD And GBPUSD!

Pairs With Dollar (USD) And Pound (GBP) To Be Shaken Shortly!? Let’s Follow EURUSD, USDCAD And GBPUSD!

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 12.04.2022 12:40
Today US Core CPI and EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook are released, tomorrow it’s time to print UK CPI and the US PPI and crude oil inventories. What’s more, tomorrow’s afternoon Bank of Canada interest rate decision is released as well and many investors and economists await these announcement. It’s a very, very hot week as one day before holiday for many countries ECB interest rate decision goes public. It’s going to be a really tempting end of the working week! Firstly, let’s see how has EUR/USD fluctuated recently USD keeps going, yields are rising and the ECB decision is crucial considering next moves of the pair, as we have to wait longer for the next Fed’s announcement till the middle of May. EURUSD Chart USDCAD – Bank of Canada to raise the interest rate? As Investing.com predicts a rate hike, tightening of BoC’s monetary policy could help the Canadian dollar even if it’s quite strong right now even gaining in a long term. Monthly chart shows a noticeable strengthening of 1%. However, mentioned gain is a reduced value as a few days ago USD/CAD has been trading almost 3% lower. USDCAD Chart GBPUSD – A Storm Incoming? Daily chart shows a real volatility! GBP has strengthened and weakened few times already and the moves have become more dynamic recently as you see on the right hand side. The US CPI is released today and UK CPI and the US PPI go public on Wednesday so expect high volatility to persist and investors to change their minds really rapidly. GBPUSD Chart Data/Source: Investing.com, TradingView.com Charts: TradingView.com
Oil dips lower, gold higher on inflation

Japanese Yen (JPY) Weakens Against The Dollar, USD/CAD Stable And The Inevitable Strengthening Of The USD, IMF/World Bank Events

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 19.04.2022 09:50
Summary: Analysis of; EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, USD/CAD, USD/JPY. Japanese Yen weakens as Bank of Japan fights against increasing Treasury Yields. USD Strengthening as the Fed remains hawkish. The EUR and GBP future prices awaiting the IMF and World Bank Events later this week. EUR/USD, Strengthening USD putting pressure on the EUR. EUR/USD market sentiment is currently reflected as bearish for this currency pair as the graph shows the declining price over the past week. In the past weeks, the Euro has been underperforming as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war causing fears of Eurozone stagflation. The ECB is stuck at the moment with increasing inflation and slow growth, the likelihood of the ECB’s capacity to match the aggressiveness of the Fed is low. Perhaps toward the end of the week we will see the EURO bounce against the USD inlight of the talks at the IMF/World bank events. EUR/USD Price Chart Read next: (UKOIL) Brent Crude Oil Spikes to Highest Price For April, (NGAS) Natural Gas Hitting Pre-2008 Prices, Cotton Planting Has Begun   The Value EUR/GBP Awaits Changes in Light of Major Appointments This Week The Euro seems to be strengthening against the GBP after it depreciated late last week. Since the market opened this morning, the investor sentiment for this currency pair has become bullish. There is suspicion that the sharp fall in the value of the EUR/GBP last Thursday may have come out of China in an attempt to stop any more strengthening in the Renminbi. The future value of this currency pair is important to watch in the coming days, with major appointments on talks about finances coming up, especially both the ECB and BoE governors talks at the IMF/World Bank events later this week. EUR/GBP Price Chart USD/CAD Currency Pair holding Stable amidst Current Market conditions The USD/CAD currency pair price is remaining relatively stable given the current risk-averse market sentiment. The USD/CAD currency pair is considered to be volatile, both the CAD and USD reacts quickly to the release of economic data and current market conditions. Despite investors being risk averse, the market sentiment seems to be bullish for the USD inlight of the Fed's hawkish attitude, growing concerns on inflation increases and US rising benchmark yields all leading to a strengthening USD. USD strengthening against the Japanese Yen The USD strengthened against the Yen this past week as a result of the increasing US Treasury yields and the expectation of positive economic data. The price of this currency pair reached the highest since March 2002. The Bank of Japan has been working hard to keep the Treasury yield below 0.25%, the opposite approach the Fed has taken in the fight against inflation, causing the yen to weaken. The Japanese finance minister raises concerns on the damaging effect the weakening yen could have on the weakening economy For you: Forex Rates: British Pound (GBP) Strengthening? Weak (EUR) Euro? GBP, NZD And AUD Supported By Monetary Policy?   USD/JPY Price Chart Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, Teletrade.eu.
The sectors most affected by soaring energy prices | ING Economics

Euro To US Dollar (EUR To USD): That's An Amazing USD Performance, Will USDCAD (Canadian Dollar) Stay Close? USDJPY (Japanese Yen) Beats Records!

Jason Sen Jason Sen 20.04.2022 10:39
EURUSD retests 37 YEAR TREND LINE SUPPORT AT 1.0760/20. Longs need stops below 1.0670. Obviously there is nothing more important than this level this week. Longs at 1.0760/20 initially target 1.0820/50. Above here is more positive targeting 1.0900/20 then 1.0960/70. USDCAD strong resistance at 1.2650/70. Shorts need stops above 1.2690. A break higher is a medium term buy signal. Related article: Monetary Policy Drives EUR/USD, The Future of the EUR/GBP Awaits the Bank Of England's Speech - Good Morning Forex| FXMAG.COM Very minor support at 1.2610/1.2590 & again at 1.2525/05 today. If we continue lower look for 1.2480/70. We have another buying opportunity at 1.2440/10. Longs need stops below 1.2370. A break lower is an important medium term sell signal. USDJPY beat 14 year trend line resistance at 127.10/50 & rocketed another 200 pips!! The pair has 13 blue bodied daily & 7 weekly candles in a row. So sell signal yet despite severely overbought conditions. Above 129.50 look for 129.90/95 then 130.25/35, perhaps as far as 130.75/85. First support at 128.45/25. Further losses can target 127.80/70. Unlikely but if we continue lower look for strong support at 127.10/126.90. Read next: Gold Price Falls, Volatility in Wheat Futures and The Price Of Palladium| FXMAG.COM EURJPY higher as expected reaching 139.67 & no sell signal yet as we become overbought. Further gains can target 139.95/99 then 140.40/50 & 140.85/95. GBP To USD GBPUSD retests last week's low at 1.2990/70 after the bullish engulfing candle so now we just have to see if we get a double bottom buy signal or if the pair break lower for a sell signal. So far the bulls are winning as we bounce from 1.2977. A break below 1.2955 should be a medium term sell signal. Our longs target 1.3060/70 & 1.3100/10, perhaps as far as first resistance at 1.3150/70. Please email me if you need this report updated or Whatsapp: +66971910019 – To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk
Markets find balance ahead of fresh economic data and speeches from Lagarde and Powell (expect a local increase in EUR/USD and a decease in USD/CAD)  | InstaForex

Monetary Policy Drives EUR/USD, The Future of the EUR/GBP Awaits the Bank Of England's Speech - Good Morning Forex

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 20.04.2022 10:17
Summary: EUR/USD and Monetary Policy. Bank Of England's Speech on Thursday effect on the GBP related currency pairs. AUD/CHF as a reflection of investor risk sentiment. Related article: Japanese Yen (JPY) Weakens Against The Dollar, USD/CAD Stable And The Inevitable Strengthening Of The USD, IMF/World Bank Events Monetary Policy driving the EUR/USD price action. Since the market opened this morning, the EUR has strengthened against the USD and the market sentiment is bullish, the rise in price is small but significant given the current economic conditions. With the differing monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) the EUR/USD currency pair price is low. In the coming weeks it is likely to see the dollar strengthening thanks to the expectations of the Fed to tighten monetary policy. Whereas, there is no certainty on when the ECB will begin rising interest rates. EUR/USD Price Chart Value of the GBP Awaits BOEs Speech Since the market opened this morning the price of the currency pair has increased, however, market sentiment for the EUR/GBP has changed from bullish yesterday to a mixed today. The strengthening EUR against GBP comes in light of the Bank of Englands (BOE) announcements tomorrow regarding the future monetary policy of the country, investors are expecting more hawkish actions. EUR/GBP Price Chart  Read next: Altcoins' Rally: Solana (SOL) Soars Even More, DOT and SHIBA INU Do The Same! | FXMAG.COM AUD/CHF Since the market opened this morning, the value of the AUD/CHF has increased, and has a bullish market sentiment. This currency pair can be used as a good reflection of risk sentiment, this is because the AUD is risk-on and the Swiss Franc is considered as a safe-haven currency. AUD/CHF Price Chart GBP loses some ground on the JPY The price of the GBP/JPY currency pair has (in general) been on the rise as a result of the rapidly depreciating value of the Yen. However, since the market opened this morning the price has decreased despite the bullish market sentiment, possibly due to the uncertainty regarding the future of the GBP and the upcoming BOE’s announcements. GBP/JPY Price Chart Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, teletrade.eu, dailyfx.com
The sectors most affected by soaring energy prices | ING Economics

(USD) Dollar Index - Fed Floors It! Hawkish Rhetoric And Interest Rate Hike? British Pound In Crisis? GBP/USD Affected By Weak Retail Sales Data!

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 22.04.2022 12:02
The Dollar Index appears to have risen on Friday to its highest level since July 2020 as expectations rise for a rapid tightening of monetary policy in the US both this spring and summer. Learn more on Conotoxia.com Speaking Thursday at a panel organized by the IMF, the Fed chairman said the central bank is committed to raising interest rates quickly to bring inflation down Investors may have heard hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell yesterday, who suggested more aggressive rate hikes in the future. Speaking Thursday at a panel organized by the IMF, the Fed chairman said the central bank is committed to raising interest rates quickly to bring inflation down, and added that a 50 basis point rate hike is still on the table for May. Powell pointed out that aside from damaging inflation, the U.S. economy is very strong and the labor market is in good shape. The dollar index seems to have gained for the third week in a row. Powell's speech was followed by opinions from various institutions on how further monetary policy in the US may shape up. Among them, Nomura points to the possibility of hikes of as much as 75 basis points both in June and July. This seems to be one of the bigger predictions for Fed action. Read Next: How To Hedge Against Inflation? Crypto? Is Bitcoin (BTC) The Answer?| FXMAG.COM UK consumer morale was the weakest since 2008 In addition to the strength of the US dollar, today on the currency market we may also observe the relative weakness of the British pound. Macroeconomic data from the UK may have contributed to the GBP depreciation. Retail sales in the UK fell by 1.4 percent in March 2022, which seems to be much worse than market forecasts of a 0.3 percent decline. The data suggests that consumers may be spending less due to rising prices. Additionally, UK consumer morale was the weakest since 2008. The GfK consumer confidence index in the UK fell to -38 points in April 2022, the lowest level since July 2008. As a consequence of the above events, the GBP/USD pair price could fall by almost 1% today, to the lowest level since the end of 2020. Yesterday the pair was quoted at the area of 1.3030, and fall today to the region of 1.2900. The market can still wait for the speeches of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey later today. Read Next: Record-Breaking US Dollar To Japanese Yen (USD/JPY): Turbo-accelerated Dollar Index (DXY) Makes Not So Strony JPY Plunge Against The Greenback | FXMAG.COM Since the beginning of the year, the yen seems to have lost about 10 percent against the US dollar Among the world's major currencies, it is also impossible not to pay attention to the recent weakness of the Japanese yen, which is trying to stabilize under the level of 130.00 on the USD/JPY pair. The talks between the Japanese and American sides on taking joint steps to slow down such rapid changes in the exchange rate could help in this process. A meeting was to be held between the Japanese Finance Minister and the US Treasury Secretary on this matter. Since the beginning of the year, the yen seems to have lost about 10 percent against the US dollar. Read Next: Fed Vs. ECB! Market Shocker Is Here! EUR/USD Plunged! (EUR) Shows Its Strength Amid ECB Rhetoric| FXMAG.COM Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Powell signals Fed needs to be nimble, Canada Inflation hits near 40-year high, bitcoin tries to hold USD20k

What Moves Forex Rates? Strong US Dollar Affects British Pound (GBP), Japanese Yen (JPY) And CNH

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.04.2022 13:32
The world's major currencies continue to surrender to the dollar one after another. Since the start of March, the yen has lost 11.5% and fallen to a 20-year low. But just as we saw the third world economy currency stabilise, the currency of the second one went on the move. Chinese currency had previously successfully resisted the strengthening of the USD since the middle of last year, but The dollar has added over 2% to the renminbi since the start of the week, the most significant move since 2015. It is also noteworthy that the Chinese currency had previously successfully resisted the strengthening of the USD since the middle of last year, but in an abrupt move, entered the area of the extremes of the last 12 months. Read next (FxPro): Still Going Up The Price Of Crude Oil (WTI/BRENT) When Energy Stocks Will Start To Soar? | FXMAG.COM We see an equally impressive attack on the Pound. The GBPUSD broke the support at 1.3000 on Friday, and it is already losing more than 1% so far today. USDCHF reached its highest point since June 2020, exceeding 0.9550. Read next (FxPro): Want To Exchange 100 GBP To USD? GBP/USD Below 1.3000! (GBP) British Pound Weakens! GBP To USD - 17-Months-Low! | FXMAG.COM The New Zealand and Australian dollars have been declining steadily since early April, despite hawkish action and comments from respective central banks. Moreover, the export-oriented economies of these countries should benefit from the emerging commodity prices. EURUSD is trading below 1.0800, near 2020 reversal levels and maintaining a very moderate trading range The USDCAD went back to month highs in less than two days, reversing Wednesday's sharp rally and earlier gains from hawkish comments by the Bank of Canada. EURUSD is trading below 1.0800, near 2020 reversal levels and maintaining a very moderate trading range. However, the swing in GBPUSD today and USDCNH throughout the week and the USDJPY drama since early March suggests that EURUSD could be the next victim of dollar bulls.
British pound (GBP/USD). Sterling falls below 1.23

British pound (GBP/USD). Sterling falls below 1.23!

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 06.05.2022 12:22
The British pound has stabilized on Friday, after sustaining huge losses a day earlier. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2342 in the European session, down 0.11%. Earlier, the currency fell to 1.2276, its lowest level since June 2020.   BoE warning chills the pound The BoE dutifully raised interest rates at its meeting on Thursday, but the market reception was a chilly one. GBP/USD plummeted a staggering 2.21% on the day. Investors gave a thumbs-down to the grim message from the central bank, as a fourth straight rate hike in as many meetings became an afterthought. The BoE’s growth forecast for 2022 remained at 3.75%, but it slashed the 2023 projection from 1.25% to -0.25%. At the same time, the central revised upwards its inflation forecast for Q4 to above 10%, up from 8% in an April forecast. The ‘double-whammy’ of higher rates and a deteriorating economic outlook sent the British pound reeling after the BoE meeting. The rate decision was a 6-3 vote, with all three dissenters voting in favor of a 0.50% rate hike. This surprised the markets, which had expected an 8-1 vote. There is a deep split in the MPC, with Governor Bailey acknowledging after the meeting that an uncertain economic outlook had led to a range of views in the MPC. Such a statement can hardly be expected to instill confidence in the markets. In its policy summary, the BoE signalled that more rate hikes are coming, and also dropped the word “modest” to describe upcoming rate hikes. Yet the markets were not impressed  – the 0.25% was modest, and with the BoE warning about 10% inflation, it’s clear that it will take quite some time before rate hikes do the job and wrestle down sizzling inflation. The US dollar initially lost ground after the Fed rate decision on Wednesday, as investors seized on Fed Chair Powell’s statement that the Fed was not considering a 0.75% rate hike. The greenback has since bounced back, as the markets digest that the Fed plans to be aggressive with further 0.50% hikes in its battle to bring down inflation.   GBP/USD Technical There is resistance at 1.2612 and 1.2719 GBP/USD tested support at 1.2272 in the Asian session. Below there is support at 1.2179           This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
FX forecast 06/10/2022 EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USDX, SP500 and Gold from Sebastian Seliga

(EUR/USD) Wall Street Tanks, Allowing the Euro To Slightly Recover, (EUR/GBP) Goldman Sachs Betting Against GBP, JPY Gets The Better Of The US Dollar And EUR - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 10.05.2022 11:58
Summary: Euro gained slightly against the USD after the poor performance of the US markets on Monday. Goldman Sachs placing their confidence in the value of the EURO. JPY gains slightly against the EUR and USD on Tuesday. Read next: (EUR/USD) US Dollar Continues To Trump the EUR, (EUR/GBP)(GBP/JPY) Pound Sterling Unlikely To Recover Anytime Soon.  EUR gains some ground against the USD. Markets turned around on Monday with the EUR/USD currency pair with market sentiment showing bullish signals. The Euro is gaining value despite the surging US Dollar, at the end of the trading day on Monday Wall Street has tanked with the Nasdaq down 4.29%. As investors turn away from risky assets such as forex, and move to safer investments such as treasuries, the value of the US Dollar is facing potential pressure. Investors are concerned around the Feds shrinking balance sheet as liquidity dries up. EUR/USD Price Chart Pound Sterling losing value against the Euro. On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs bet the EUR will continue to gain against the GBP, as the market for the EUR/GBP currency pair continues to reflect a bullish sentiment. The European Central Bank (ECB) seems intent on raising interest rates by the summer, showing a more hawkish attitude than the Bank of England (BoE) who believe that inflation will return to normal levels on its own. This BoE attitude is causing investors to lose confidence in the Pound Sterling and causing its value to decrease. EUR/GBP Price Chart JPY receives momentary relief from the USD Although the JPY has gained on the US Dollar on Tuesday, the USD/JPY currency pair is reflecting a bullish market sentiment. The strengthening against the USD comes after the carnage the US markets saw on Monday. Whether or not this strengthening will continue is unlikely as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues their monetary easing in their attempt to boost the economy. USD/JPY Price Chart JPY markets best performer on Monday The EUR is losing ground to the JPY during the trading day on Tuesday, the EUR/JPY currency pair is reflecting a mixed market sentiment. As risk averse investors fled to safety assets given the US markets performance, the Japanese Yen was the forex markets top performer on Monday, which gave it the chance to strengthen against the EUR and the USD. EUR/JPY Price Chart Read next: (EUR/USD) All Eyes On The US Bureau Of Labour Statistics’ Results Due On Friday, (EUR/GBP) Bleak Economic Outlook For the UK Sends GBP Spiralling - Good Morning Forex!  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
FX Update: Bond rally supercharges JPY comeback rally. | Saxo Bank

FX Update: Bond rally supercharges JPY comeback rally. | Saxo Bank

John Hardy John Hardy 12.05.2022 16:01
Summary:  An extension of the rout in risky assets has continued to drive the US dollar higher against the smaller currencies and most G10 currencies as well, but the Japanese yen has not only taken on a new shine, but is even sharply stronger against the strong US dollar as global bonds have suddenly rediscovered their safe haven appeal. Elsewhere, HKD is worth watching as the HKMA intervened for the first time of this cycle to maintain the top of the USDHKD band. FX Trading focus: JPY woke up and smelled the coffee. Watching HKD as USD presses upper level of USDHKD band. The JPY upside potential has been more fully realized since yesterday on the heavy weight of falling yields in global sovereign bond, which are finally serving their function as a go-to safe haven in an environment of generally risk deleveraging. The JPY is even handily outpacing the ongoing strength in the US dollar as the yield focus dominates. And the technical damage in JPY crosses is spreading: NZDJPY and GBPJPY, the latter our focus yesterday, are already trading back into old ranges that preceded the JPY sell-off sparked by the commodity rally in the wake after Russia invaded Ukraine. Now watching AUDJPY and EURJPY for whether the feat is repeated there (key levels around 86.00 and 134.00, respectively), and CNHJPY has come down hard, with more to come. More thoughts on the most important USDJPY pair below in the chart discussion. The JPY can continue higher, but the price is far “fairer” now relative to long term bond yields. Yields must extend lower still, possibly with a helping hand from crude oi and LNG prices for a full reversal of the JPY sell-off since late February.  Chart: USDJPYYesterday, our focus in JPY crosses was on GBPJPY, which took out the 160.00 and 158.00 area supports yesterday. Today we have a look at the big one: USDJPY and what levels might trigger a more notably slide. Arguably, the first of these has already been under strain today in the 128.50 area. Regardless, the direction of the US 10-year benchmark yield is the key coincident indicator, with global energy prices a secondary indicator. The next support area below is the 127.03 pivot low followed perhaps by the 125.00 area, which was a stopping point on the way up. Source: Saxo Group Sterling suffered a sell-off to new lows in the wake of the Q1 GDP data, which showed a +8.7% growth rate, slightly below expectations, but a -0.1% month-on-month figure for March, with weak production figures to boot. The March Trade Balance data was also out and showed a toe-curling negative £23.8B trade balance, a staggering figure. Still, after a run to fresh lows against the G3 currencies, the EURGBP rally reversed rather sharply, in part as EURUSD tipped over to new lows after a couple of weeks of defending the 1.0500 support area. All traders should monitor the crypto situation as a possible aggravator of additional volatility risk across markets. The TerraUSD “stable coin” broke its parity level with the US dollar earlier this week and traded as much as 70% below par. Then yesterday, a key Bitcoin support level at 30,000 broke, possibly inspiring the instability of the Tether stable coin, which is a commonly used as a kind of parking space between going in and out of crypto trades and in and out of the crypo market itself. The Tether coin traded as much as 5% below par against the US dollar this morning before the whole crypto-complex recovered. More directly pertinent to FX, we have to watch the Hong Kong dollar (HKD), as the USD strength has taken the USDHKD exchange rate to the upper limit of its band at 7.85 and has seen the Hong Kong Monetary Authority out intervening for the first time of this cycle overnight. The HKMA will also need to copy Fed policy to avoid the worst of pressure on the HKD, even with Hong Kong’s economy in a funk. The HKD band is one of those legacy set-ups that makes little sense here almost forty years after its creation, but Hong Kong remains a key gateway into and out of the mainland Chinese economy, and China probably doesn’t want to add HKD instability to its long list of challenges. Note the Chinese demand concerns continuing to weigh on the copper price, which has punched to the lowest reaches of the range since early 2021. This in turn weighs on the Aussie, which itself has punched to new lows for the cycle. The CAD has gotten off easy so far by comparison, perhaps as oil prices remain in the higher range here – but after breaking above resistance, if USDCAD loses its tethering to the 1.3000 area it is in danger of a sharp extension higher. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.We have noted the euro resilience of late, but signs of this crumbling today as EURUSD, EURCHF and especially EURJPY come under pressure. But the development of note here is the strong revival of the JPY momentum and outright positive trend measurement in recent days. Elsewhere, CAD looks too strong with this backdrop, although there is quite a race to the bottom of late among the weakest horses in G10 FX. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Note EURJPY and CADJPY trying to join other JPY crosses in flipping to the negative side after the sharp JPY rally today. All G10 currency pairs save for a few GBP pairs (due to Brexit-related events) are in the highest 10% of their ATRs of the last 1000 trading days, as shown in the dark orange shading for the ATR readings. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1230 – US Apr. PPI 1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 1800 – US 30-year T-Bond auction 1800 – Mexico Overnight Rate Announcement
Video market update for June 29, 2022  | InstaForex

Can British Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Reach 2-year-low? NZD/USD Doesn't Seem To Be Improving And US 100 Sends A Small Recovery Signal

Jing Ren Jing Ren 13.05.2022 07:46
GBPUSD to reach 2-year lows The pound remained under pressure after a slowdown in the UK’s GDP growth in Q1. A break below the lower range (1.2260) of a brief consolidation signalled a bearish continuation. Sterling is heading towards its two-year low at 1.2100. Short-covering could be expected and in conjunction with dip-buying could drive the price up momentarily. 1.2400 is the first resistance and the bulls need to lift the recent high at 1.2640 before they could regain control. Otherwise, the psychological level of 1.2000 would be the next stop. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM NZDUSD grinds lower The New Zealand dollar tumbles as traders continue to pile into safe haven assets. The sell-off accelerated after the pair sank below June 2020’s lows near 0.6400. Downbeat sentiment may attract more trend followers after a faded rebound. 0.6100 near a two-year low would be the next target. 0.6370 is a fresh resistance and the bears may sell into strength at the next bounce. The support-turned-resistance at 0.6450 sits next to the 20-day moving average and is a major level to clear before a reversal could materialise. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM US 100 may see limited bounce The Nasdaq 100 struggles to find bottom as investors continue to flee risk assets. The index sees no sign of stabilisation yet as it approaches 11500. The price action has been capped by a falling trend line from last April. An oversold RSI may prompt sellers to take profit and possibly trigger a mean reversion trade to the upper band (13000) of the line. A break above 12400 may attract enough buying interest to make this happen, but the rebound could be limited unless the bulls succeed in pushing higher. Read next: Binance Academy: Crypto Fear And Greed Index Explained| FXMAG.COM
Markets are betting the Fed has it wrong again

(GBP/USD) British Pound Dips On Soft GDP (Gross Domestic Product) | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 12.05.2022 21:09
The pound continues to lose ground and is trading at its lowest level since May 2020. GBP/USD fell below the 1.22 level earlier and hasn’t had a daily winning session since May 4th. Negative growth raises alarm bells The UK economy is struggling, a grim fact which was brought home by the Q1 GDP report earlier today. On a quarterly basis, GDP came in at 0.8%, down from 1.3% in Q4 of 2020 and shy of the 1.0% estimate. Even worse, the economy contracted in March by 0.1%, after a 0.1% gain in February. This missed the forecast of 0.0%. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM The BoE has raised rates to 1.0%, a 13-year high, but it’s clear that the BoE has fallen behind the inflation curve and is playing catch-up The negative growth reading was a result of the crushing inflation that has gripped the UK. CPI hit 7% in March and the markets are braced for a reading of around 9% from week’s April CPI release. The cost of living crisis has dampened consumer spending, a key reason for the negative reading for March GDP. The BoE has raised rates to 1.0%, a 13-year high, but it’s clear that the BoE has fallen behind the inflation curve and is playing catch-up. At last week’s policy meeting, the central bank warned that inflation could top 10% and there was the danger of a recession. The pound tumbled over 2% in response, even though the BoE increased rates by 0.25%. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM The grim economic outlook does not bode well for the pound, which has tumbled 7.1% since May 1st The BoE finds itself between a rock and a hard place. It needs to raise rates in order to curb soaring inflation, but weak growth means that the higher rates could tip the economy into recession. The grim economic outlook does not bode well for the pound, which has tumbled 7.1% since May 1st. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin’s Price Tanks Along With Equities. U.S. Stock Market Awaits CPI Report, Poor Performance From The FTSE 100. US inflation eases, a bit US inflation weakened in April, but not as much as the markets had expected. CPI dropped from 8.5% to 8.3%, higher than the consensus of 8.1%. This slowdown was not enough for the markets to price in “peak-US inflation”, and the dollar managed to hold its own against the major currencies. There had been talk of an “inflation peak”, but the inflation data indicates that even if inflation is falling, the pace could be much slower than the markets would like. GBP/USD Technical GBP has breached support at 1.2199 for the first time since May 2020. Below, there is support at 1.2056 GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2272 and 1.2418 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Crypto Crash Shocked Many, The Most Sensational Bit Was The Terra (LUNA) Plunge. Is (USD) US Dollar's Rally About To End? BP Has Decreased Slightly, So Does GBP/USD. This Week Has Been Full Of Events | Swissquote

Crypto Crash Shocked Many, The Most Sensational Bit Was The Terra (LUNA) Plunge. Is (USD) US Dollar's Rally About To End? BP Has Decreased Slightly, So Does GBP/USD. This Week Has Been Full Of Events | Swissquote

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 13.05.2022 10:35
The dust seems to be settling in cryptocurrencies. Terra and Luna are now worth almost nothing but Bitcoin returned past the $30K, which is a sign that the confidence in the broader sector may have not been damaged as much as we first feared. European stocks opened in the green and US futures are pointing to the upside, yet volatility remains high, warnings that the wind could change direction rapidly, and the high volatility environment is more favourable for further losses than sustainable gains. European gas futures gained another 13% yesterday, and the pressure on energy prices remain clearly tilted to the upside   On the geopolitical front, the Europeans are going around their own sanctions against Russia by opening accounts with Gazprom bank to pay the Russian gas in exchange of rubles (!!), but the latest news suggest that Russia is now cutting the German gas as a retaliation to its sanctions. Of course, the Europeans have been quite bad in this poker game - they showed too openly how scared they were to lose the Russian gas that now, Russia is gaining the upper hand. European gas futures gained another 13% yesterday, and the pressure on energy prices remain clearly tilted to the upside. Saudi Aramco has surpassed Apple in terms of market capitalization this week, to become the world’s most valuable company, and the US dollar index extended gains to a fresh 20-year high. Everyone is now wondering when the dollar rally will end! Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM   Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:32 The dust settles in cryptocurrencies 2:22 Market update 3:13 Energy remains upbeat... 4:21 ... and Aramco is now the world's biggest compagny 5:00 High vol hints at further headache 6:34 Meme pop up 7:28 Dollar extends gains, raising bets that it's soon time for correction! Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
GBP/USD analysis on June 7, 2022

(GBP) British pound’s woes continue | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 13.05.2022 15:29
The British pound can’t seem to find its footing. GBP/USD hasn’t had a daily winning session since May 4th and closed on Thursday below the 1.22 line, for the first time since May 2020. In the European session, the pound is trading quietly at the 1.22 line. Recession fears, negative growth weighing on sterling The UK treated the markets to a data dump on Thursday, but the news was not positive. UK growth for Q2 showed a 0.8% gain, down sharply from 1.3% in Q4 of 2020 and missing the 1.0% estimate. In March, the economy contracted by 0.1%, compared to a 0.1% gain in February and shy of the estimate of 0.0%. Investors never like to hear the phrase ‘negative growth’ and the March GDP report pushed the pound lower on Thursday.  There was more bad news as Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production and Business Investment all slowed down and posted negative readings. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM The UK continues to grapple with spiralling inflation, and the BoE has warned that things could get even worse. CPI hit 7%  The BoE has raised rates to 1.0%, a 13-year high, but it will take time for higher interest rates to take a bite out of inflation. At last week’s policy meeting, the central bank warned that inflation could top 10% and there was the danger of a recession. The pound tumbled over 2% in response and has fallen another 125 points since then. Risk is tilted to the downside for the pound, which has tumbled about 7% since the beginning of April. Fed’s Powell confirmed by Senate Fed Chair Powell was overwhelmingly nominated for a second term on Thursday by the US Senate. Powell appears committed to delivering 0.50% rate hikes at the next two meetings, although there has been talk of a super-size 0.75% hike in order to curb soaring inflation. US inflation finally slowed in April, but the reading of 8.3% (8.5% prior) was hardly what the markets were looking for, and talk of an “inflation peak” proved to be premature. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM GBP/USD Technical 1.2199 remains under pressure in support. Below, there is support at 1.2056 GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2272 and 1.2418 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
CNB has spent EUR7bn since May in defending the koruna

British Pound (GBP) yawns after Bailey (BoE) warnings | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 16.05.2022 23:11
The British pound is trading quietly on Monday, as the currency markets have started the week with a whimper. BoE’s Bailey says dark times ahead BoE Governor Bailey testified before lawmakers earlier today, and his message was a grim one. The BoE has predicted that soaring inflation could top 10%, and Bailey today admitted that “this is a bad situation to be in”.  Bailey said that the Ukraine war could cause a further energy shock and that his concern about the surge in food prices was “apocalyptic”. Bailey gets full credit for not sugar-coating what is a difficult economic situation, but his candidness will not help support the struggling pound, which hasn’t posted a winning week since mid-April. I appreciate Bailey’s honesty, but the BoE has run into a credibility problem with its rate policy in recent months, and it’s questionable whether his message that dark times lie ahead is the way to restore confidence in the central bank. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM The economic picture in the US is brighter, but the Fed’s aggressive policy will lead to a slowdown in growth. The big question is can Fed Chair Powell guide the economy to a soft landing and avoid a recession. On Sunday, Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for US growth to 2.4% in 2022 and 1.6% in 2023, down from 2.6% and 2.2%, respectively. Federal Reserve officials last week reiterated their intention to deliver 0.50% rate increases at the June and July meetings, which will help limit US dollar gains. At the same time, any US data that is worse than expected could lead to calls for a hike of 0.75%, which would be bullish for the US dollar. GBP/USD Technical 1.2199 remains under pressure in support. Below, there is support at 1.2056 GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2272 and 1.2418   Read next: (TRX) TRON USD Decentralised Blockchain Platform That Focuses On Entertainment And Content Sharing. Altcoins: A Deep Look Into The TRON Network | FXMAG.COM This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Having your cake and eating it. Georgia, the war in Ukraine and integration with the West

British pound soars on strong jobs data | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 17.05.2022 21:47
The British pound continues to rally on Tuesday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2463 in the European session, up 1.15% on the day. UK employment numbers sparkle The tight UK labor market is getting even tighter, as reflected in the March employment report. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7% (3.8% prior), below the 3.8% forecast and its lowest level since 1974. Employment change jumped by 83 thousand, smashing the estimate of 5 thousand. Wage growth in Q1 was up 7%, but without bonuses, the gain was only 4.2%. This means that inflation is far outstripping wage growth and exacerbating the cost of living crisis for UK households. The UK continues to grapple with a severe shortage of workers, as Covid resulted in some 500 thousand workers leaving their jobs, and many continental European workers left the UK after Brexit. For the first time on record, there are more job vacancies than unemployed persons in the UK. This economic landscape leaves the Bank of England stuck between a rock and a hard place. The central bank must raise rates to contain soaring inflation, but this could tip the economy into a recession if the BoE is unable to guide it to a ‘soft landing’. Governor Bailey didn’t pull any punches on Monday in his testimony before lawmakers, saying that he was extremely concerned about inflation. We’ll get a look at UK inflation on Wednesday, with the markets bracing for a reading of 9.1% in April. I expect the inflation report to be a market-mover for the pound – a stronger than expected release will likely send the pound higher, while a weak release would put strong pressure on the currency. Today’s employment report has raised expectations that the BoE will have to remain aggressive with its rate cycle, which has pushed UK yields and the British pound sharply higher. If the US/UK rate differential continues to narrow, the pound should be able to make up ground against the dollar. . GBP/USD Technical 1.2275 is providing support. Below, there is support at 1.2143 GBP/USD has broken above resistance at 1.2393. Above, there is resistance at 1.2525 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
German inflation comes down as government measures bite

How Are USD (US Dollar), (Canadian Dollar) CAD, (Euro) EUR, (British Pound) GBP Doing? | FX Daily: Hold your horses | ING Economics

ING Economics ING Economics 18.05.2022 08:58
The rebound in global equities is fuelling a widespread recovery in G10 pro-cyclical FX against the USD. Still, yesterday's remarks by Jay Powell were a reminder of the very hawkish Fed policy. Ultimately, rate and growth differentials should curb the dollar's weakness against most peers - except for the CAD where today's CPI should endorse more hikes Learn on ING Economics USD: Don't forget the rate and growth factor The rebound in global equities has continued to fuel a recovery in pro-cyclical currencies, and a correction in the safe-haven US dollar and Japanese yen. Overnight, Asian equities were mixed, and the CSI300 failed to follow yesterday’s jump in US-traded Chinese tech stocks following some unusually supportive comments for China’s tech companies from one of Beijing’s top officials, which fuelled speculation of some easing in the current crackdown. Stock index futures suggest a flat open in major Western equity markets today. Clearly, the monetary policy story is playing a secondary role in the market narrative at the moment, but yesterday’s comments by Fed Chair Powell were quite relevant from a signalling perspective, as he firmly reiterated the Fed’s determination to bring inflation sustainably lower, even by hiking beyond the neutral rate if necessary. While the dollar momentum is set to remain weak as long as global assets stay in recovery mode, the notion of aggressive Fed tightening continues to argue against a sustained bearish dollar trend. Incidentally, this week’s moves have likely placed the dollar in a less overbought condition. With this in mind, DXY should find increasing support below the 103.00 area. The US economic calendar includes some housing data today, and Patrick Harker is the only Fed speaker scheduled for remarks. EUR: Upside room starting to shrink EUR/USD has risen in line with other pro-cyclical pairs this week, breaking back above the 1.0500 level and now being at a safe distance from the key 2017-low support of 1.0340, which if breached would probably pave the way for a move towards parity. Today, the eurozone calendar is not busy and only includes the final print of April’s CPI numbers. We’ll also hear from European Central Bank hawk Madis Muller today, although the recent re-pricing higher in ECB rate expectations (markets now fully price in a deposit rate at 1.0% in December) means that the bar for any hawkish surprise is set very high. Our view on the limited downside risk for the dollar beyond the very short term obviously implies that the room for appreciation in EUR/USD should also start to shrink soon. We also believe that markets are pricing in too much tightening by the ECB – though not by the Fed – and expect the theme of growth divergence (exacerbated by the EU-Russia standoff on commodities) to become more relevant into the summer. With this in mind, we suspect that any further rally in EUR/USD may start to lose steam around the 1.0650-1.0700 area, with risks of a return below 1.0500 in the near term being quite material. GBP: Inflation rises, but double digits aren't assured This morning’s inflation report in the UK was broadly in line with consensus expectations, as headline CPI rose to 9.0% (largely due to the increase in the electricity price cap) with the core rate rising to 6.2% year-on-year in April. This means inflation is largely where the Bank of England expects it to be. Still, the BoE projections embed a move to double-digit inflation by the end of the year, a prospect that we are still not convinced will materialise. There are no BoE speakers today. The oversold pound has faced a strong rebound this week, recouping some of its recent sharp losses as global risk appetite improved. While the good GBP momentum may continue as equities find some stability in the coming days, the pound still faces two major downside risks in the coming months: a) a further dovish repricing of BoE rate expectations (the implied rate for end-2022 is still 2.0%); b) Brexit-related risk, as the unilateral suspension by the UK of parts of the Northern Ireland agreement would likely trigger a trade war with the EU. We think cable will mostly trade below the 1.2500 mark during the summer. CAD: Inflation data unlikely to affect BoC policy expectations Inflation data will be released in Canada today, and the market is expecting some signs that the headline rate has peaked (at 6.7% YoY), which would imply a monthly increase of 0.5% in April. Core measures may however continue to inch marginally higher. Barring major surprises in the data today, we suspect that the impact on the Bank of Canada's rate expectations and on the Canadian dollar will be limited. The BoC remains on track to deliver 50bp of rate increases in tandem with the Fed, being able to count on a tight labour market, growing workforce and positive commodity story. In our view, the BoC will ultimately have to deliver more monetary tightening than the Fed in the next year. USD/CAD has broken below 1.2800 and should continue to weaken if we see further signs of stability in global sentiment today. Crucially, the rate and growth differential that may curb EUR/USD don't apply to CAD vs USD given a hawkish BoC and strong growth in Canada, which means that a rally in the loonie should prove more sustainable than the EUR/USD one. We continue to target sub-1.25 levels in USD/CAD by the second half of the year. Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
FX: GBP/USD: more declines in view. Will British Pound To US Dollar Decrease?

GBP/USD - British Pound Finally Shows Its Potential, But US Dollar Can Be Supported By Fed Shortly. USD/JPY Is Likely To Become A "Boring" Battle, Gold Price (XAUUSD) Looks Like It Can't Get Any Higher | Orbex

Jing Ren Jing Ren 18.05.2022 09:33
GBPUSD tests daily resistance The pound surged after the UK saw a jump in average earnings over the past three months. Solid bullish momentum above 1.2400 has prompted sellers to cover their positions, exacerbating volatility in the process. The daily resistance at 1.2640 coincides with the 30-day moving average and is an important supply zone. Its breach could pave the way for a bullish reversal in the weeks to come. In the meantime, an overbought RSI may cause a pullback as intraday buyers take profit. 1.2310 is the closest support. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM USDJPY enters narrowing consolidation The yen recouped some losses after Japan’s GDP growth beat expectations in Q1. The US dollar is taking a breather after a prolonged rally. The latest retreat has found support at 127.50 over the 30-day moving average. Medium-term sentiment would stay upbeat as long as the price remains above this demand zone. 130.80 from a previously faded rebound is a key resistance and a bullish breakout could resume the rally towards 133.00. 128.70 is the immediate support for the current consolidation. Follow us on Google News! XAUUSD tests critical floor Gold inched higher as the US dollar index pulled back from a two-decade high. The price action has stabilised near January’s lows at 1790. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a loss of bearish momentum in this critical demand area, triggering a buy-the-dip behaviour. Sellers’ profit-taking could drive the precious metal higher. A bounce above 1858 may trigger an even broader short-covering. On the downside, a fall below 1790 would send the price into bearish territory with December’s lows (1750) as the next stop. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM
Record-breaking but near-peak inflation in Britain

Record-breaking but near-peak inflation in Britain

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 19.05.2022 08:40
UK consumer prices rose by 2.5% in April, the second-biggest monthly gain in the indicator’s history since 1988. Annual inflation jumped from 7% to 9%, unseen in the indicator’s history. Metals, meanwhile, have withdrawn from the highs The longer-established retail price index last saw a high annual growth rate (11.1% y/y in April) in 1982, while such a big monthly jump (3.4% m/m) was last observed in 1980. However, despite the horror that these figures represent, there are still indications that the UK’s peak annual rate of inflation will be much lower than in the 1980s (22%) or 1970s (27%). While Output Producer Prices are showing an acceleration in the annual growth rate, rising to 14%, Input PPI has slowed from 19.2% to 18.6%. Although remaining volatile in recent weeks, oil and gas have regularly retreated from highs, limiting upward pressure on prices. Metals, meanwhile, have withdrawn from the highs. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Early hints that UK inflation may be slowing in the coming months may allow the Bank of England to raise the rate by 25 points At the same time, there are growing questions about final global demand, which will constrain producers in shifting costs to consumers. Early hints that UK inflation may be slowing in the coming months may allow the Bank of England to raise the rate by 25 points at its next meeting in mid-June and not copy the Fed’s 50-point move. This is moderately negative news for the British currency, which started to retreat from the $1.25 area on the data after a 2.9% rally from last Friday’s lows. Short-term traders should pay particular attention to the 1.2350 area. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM Already, a dip lower this week would suggest that the brief period of recharging dollar bulls has ended. In this case, GBPUSD could quickly fall below 1.2000, making the 1.1500 area a potential ultimate target for this attack Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
ECB's Marathon. Earnings Season Is Coming! What's Up Equities?

FX Daily: Dollar rally pauses for breath | ING Economics

ING Economics ING Economics 20.05.2022 10:57
Some support measures for the Chinese economy and some stability in the Chinese renminbi have helped usher in a period of consolidation in FX markets. This may well last into next week, although we would consider this a pause not a reversal in the dollar's bull trend. The stronger dollar is also exporting Fed hikes around the world Not until the Fed pours cold water on tightening expectations should the dollar build a top USD: Some consolidation is in order The dollar is now about 2% off its highs seen late last week. Driving that move has probably been some position liquidation and a preference for currencies like the Japanese yen (JPY) and the Swiss franc (CHF) during turbulent times in global equity markets. In fact, yesterday's FX activity looked like the big sell-off in EUR/CHF on Swiss National Bank (SNB) comments which triggered downside stops in USD/CHF and prompted a slightly broader dollar adjustment. Also helping this period of consolidation has been this week's stability in the Chinese renminbi (CNY). The overnight 15bp cut in the 5-year Loan Prime Rate – aimed at supporting the property sector – has instilled a little more confidence in Chinese assets markets. However, we cannot see USD/CNY heading straight back to 6.50. Instead, a 6.65-6.80 trading range may be developing after the recent CNY devaluation.  However, the emerging market environment still looks challenged given that the stronger dollar is effectively exporting tighter Fed policy around the world. Yesterday we saw rate hikes in Egypt, South Africa, and the Philippines. After devaluing the Egyptian pound by 15% in March, authorities there are very much struggling with the external environment. This has seen Egypt's 5-year Sovereign Credit Default swap rise to news highs of 940bp and is a reminder of the challenge North Africa faces from surging food prices. For today, the data calendar is relatively quiet and there may be some interest in what G7 finance ministers and central bank governors have to say after their meeting in Bonn. Reports suggest Japan would like some tweaks to the final G7 communique, but we very much doubt there will be any change in the core FX language that FX rates be market-determined and that excessive volatility and disorderly moves be avoided. DXY could correct a little lower to 102.30, but we see this as bull market consolidation, rather than top-building activity. Not until the Fed pours cold water on tightening expectations should the dollar build a top. And yesterday Fed hawk, Esther George, said that even this 'rough week' in equity markets would not blow the Fed off course.  EUR: ECB hawks in control Minutes of the April ECB meeting released yesterday show that the hawks are calling the shots. The market now prices a 31/32bp ECB rate hike at the 21 July ECB meeting – pricing which has plenty of scope to bounce between +25bp and +50bp over the next two months. This could drag EUR/USD back to the 1.0650/70 area over the coming days – helped by brief periods of calm in the external environment – but as above we would see this as a bear market bounce. Our core EUR/USD view for 2H22 is one of heightened volatility and probably EUR/USD getting close to parity in 3Q22 when expectations of the Fed tightening cycle could be at their zenith. Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform| FXMAG.COM GBP: April retail sales provide a reprieve UK retail sales have come in a little better than expected and break/suspend the narrative that the cost of living squeeze is large enough to derail the Bank of England tightening cycle. We would not get carried away with the sterling recovery, however. Sterling is showing a high correlation with risk assets – trading as a growth currency – and the outlook for risk assets will remain challenging for the next three to six months probably. Here's what our credit strategy team thinks of the European outlook.  Cable may struggle to breach the 1.2500/2550 area and 1.20 levels are very possible over the coming months. New-found hawkishness at the ECB means that EUR/GBP may struggle to sustain a move below 0.8450 before returning to 0.8600. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM CHF: SNB policy makes the case for EUR/CHF sub 1.00 next year As we discuss in an article released yesterday, it looks like the SNB is targeting a stable real exchange rate to fight inflation. Given that Switzerland's inflation is roughly 4% lower than key trading partners, a stable real exchange rate means that the nominal exchange rate needs to be 4% stronger. This will be an added factor supporting the CHF over the coming months and may start to generate interest in trades positioning for a lower GBP/CHF. 1.2080 is a big support level but 1.1860 looks like the near-term target. Read this article on THINK TagsGBP FX Daily ECB CHF Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
GBP/USD Increased, S&P 500 Went Down By Ca. 1%, Nasdaq Lost 1.33%. EUR/USD Exited Below-1.04 Levels

British Pound (GBP) yawns on mixed retail sales | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 20.05.2022 12:03
The British pound is drifting on Friday, after showing unusually strong volatility this week. The pound rebounded on Thursday, racking up gains of 1.06% and briefly breaking above the symbolic 1.25 line. UK retail sales showed a strong gain in April, with a gain of 1.4% MoM. This followed a decline of 1.2% in March. However, on a yearly basis, sales volumes were 4.9% lower, as the broader picture looks grim. The monthly gain for March may have been a blip, as consumers were hit with higher household energy costs as well as an increase in taxes. Add into the mix inflation at 9.0% and possibly heading into double-digits, and it’s difficult to envision retail sales moving higher. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Consumer confidence hits record low The GfK consumer confidence index remains deep in negative territory. The index dropped to -40 in May, down from -38 in April. How pessimistic are consumers about the economy? The previous record of -39 was set in July 2008, at the height of the global financial crisis.  Consumer confidence is considered an early, reliable signal of economic activity, and these massively poor numbers could well indicate that the UK economy is falling into recession. A GfK note summed up the grim situation, saying that the BoE is pessimistic about inflation, consumer confidence is gloomy, and there aren’t any reasons for optimism anytime soon. This certainly does not bode well for the British pound, which has plunged over 7% since the start of the year. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM The BoE finds itself playing catch-up with the inflation curve. There have been voices calling for more aggressive rate hikes than the 25-bps increments we’ve seen over the past three meetings, especially with inflation hitting 9%. The central bank has a daunting challenge, as it must raise rates to curb inflation but also needs to be mindful that the economy is still recovering from Covid and could tip into a recession due to high interest rates. GBP/USD Technical 1.2393 has switched back to support. Below, there is support at 1.2275 There is resistance at 1.2525 and 1.2643   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Video market update for June 29, 2022  | InstaForex

Will Pound (GBP) Strengthen? Ebury Weekly Analysis: British Pound (GBP) | Ebury

Matthew Ryan Matthew Ryan 23.05.2022 15:16
Last week saw some strange market action. Financial headlines were dominated by the relentless sell-off in world equity markets that left the S&P 500 index flirting with the semi-official bear market line of 20% below its record high. Among G10 currencies, the Swiss franc notched a rare win as the flight to safety bid combined with a hawkish central bank to send it soaring by over 2% against the US dollar. More surprising was the general weakness in the US dollar, which failed to benefit from its safe-haven role. In fact, the winners of the week were Latin American currencies, which is particularly impressive in the current risk averse environment. As long standing LatAm bulls, we are not complaining, however.  Learn more on Ebury This week the focus will be on any spillovers from the volatility in stock markets to the FX market, on one hand, and the PMIs of business activity on the other. The Eurozone and UK indices are all expected to print well above 55.nWe think that these levels belie the fears of recession that appear to be gripping asset markets. It is difficult to reconcile still massively negative real rates, huge government deficits and economies at full employment with any sustained economic pullback. Figure 1: G10 FX Performance Tracker [base: USD] (1 week) Source: Refinitiv Datastream Date: 23/05/2022 British Pound (GBP) Data out of the UK continued to suggest a dichotomy between sentiment and reality. Consumer sentiment was dismal, but jobs data came out very strong, as did retail sales. Inflation in April was sky high, as expected. Sterling bounced back in line with the general dollar selloff and managed some gains against the euro as well. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM We think there is little to suggest a recession is likely, and this week’s PMI data should be further evidence. It seems that the Bank of England’s apparent willingness to tolerate inflation due to the risks to growth is misplaced. In the short-term, Bank of England dovishness may weigh on the pound, but after the recent sell-off we think that the currency is quite cheap and offers a solid opportunity over the longer term. Figure 2: UK Inflation Rate (2017 – 2022) Source: Refinitiv Datastream Date: 23/05/2022
Week Ahead:  US Dollar Falls As Growth Fears Rise on Fed Hawkishness

Week Ahead: US Dollar Falls As Growth Fears Rise on Fed Hawkishness

OneRoyal Market Updates OneRoyal Market Updates 23.05.2022 08:24
Weekly Recap The main story this week was the reversal lower in the US Dollar. The Dollar Index closed out its first losing week since the final week of March as recession fears took hold. The reversal was seemingly fuelled by comments from Fed chairman Powell midweek suggesting a more aggressive course of action from the Fed. Powell warned that the central bank is prepared to raise rates above the neutral level, if necessary, to bring inflation down and will not stop until inflation is back at target. With inflation still at elevated levels and with interest rates higher and expected to rise materially in coming months, traders are concerned over the impact on growth. These fears were well reflected this week in the sharp reversal lower in USD. UK inflation was seen hitting 40-year highs last month at 9%, putting BOE rate hike expectations back into focus. The SNB was seen making a U-turn on monetary policy with SNB chairman Jordan warning that the SNB is ready to act on inflation, which is travelling well above the SNB’s target. The release of the ECB meeting minutes this week highlighted the hawkish shift taking place among members, with the market now increasingly pricing in a July rate hike. It was a volatile week for equities with the FTSE ending the week roughly flat (as of writing) after plenty of two-way action. The ASX200, the DAX and the Nikkei ended the week higher while the S&P and the Nasdaq were firmly in the red as Fed rate-hike expectations overtook USD weakness. It was a better week for precious metals with both gold and silver rallying on USD weakness. Oil prices were unable to capitalise on USD weakness, however, as focus remains on the ongoing EU negotiations regarding potential sanctions on Russian oil. While many EU leaders are pushing for an EU-wide ban on Russian oil by year end, the chances of achieving this look unlikely given fierce opposition from Hungary and Greece among others. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM Coming Up Next Week US, Eurozone, UK PMIs Traders will get the latest insight into the performance of the factory and non-factory sectors in the US, eurozone and UK. With inflation surging in all three economies and with supply-chain issues remaining a real problem there is a very real threat that these readings highlight weakness. Given the recessionary concerns which have taken centre stage recently, if these readings underperform asset markets are likely to come under pressure over the week. RBNZ Rate decision The RBNZ meeting this week is expected to see the bank hike rates by a further .5%. 20 out of 21 economists polled by Reuters are calling for such a move. Given these hawkish expectations, if the bank hikes by less than .5% NZD will likely come under heavy selling pressure. If a .5% hike is announced, the focus will then be on forward guidance with NZD likely to rally if the RBNZ points to further hikes incoming. FOMC Meeting Minutes The May FOMC minutes this week are expected to highlight the uptick in Fed hawkishness recently. There’s potentially some reduced impact in the wake of recent comments from Fed’s Powell suggesting that the Fed has turned more aggressively hawkish since that meeting. Nonetheless, the details are likely to be firmly hawkish and market volatility can be expected in response to them. Forex Heat Map Coming up This Week Technical Analysis Our favourite chart this week is GBPCHF GBPCHF has been moving lower in a well-defined channel over the correction from 2021 highs. Recently price has been underpinned by support along the 1.2114 level. This has been a major support area since late last year. If price can breach below this level on a weekly closing basis, this would suggest a continuation of the downtrend towards the next big support at the 1.1687 level. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM Economic Calendar – High Impact Another busy data week coming up, key highlights include: US, eurozone and UK PMI readings on Tuesday, US GDP on Thursday and US trade data on Friday. See the calendar below for full schedule.
Gold and stocks in the spotlight for investors

(USD) US Dollar’s Orderly Retreat Continues | Having A Look At EUR/USD, GBP/USD And AUD/USD | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 25.05.2022 14:09
Recession jitters send US dollar lower The US dollar eased once again overnight, as US recession fears continue to lead to a repricing lower of Fed tightening expectations. With quantitative tightening starting next week and no signs of inflation falling, that may be more hope than reality. Nevertheless, one must respect the momentum in the short term, and the US dollar bull market correction still looks to have legs in it. ​ The dollar index fell by 0.32% to 101.77 overnight, but Asia is doing its usual countertrend moves today, pushing the dollar index back up to 101.95. The multi-year breakout line is at 102.40 today, forming initial resistance, while 101.50 and 101.00 loom as immediate supports. EUR/USD continued edging higher overnight, rising 0.42% to 1.0735 before falling by 0.28% to 1.0705 in Asia. Momentum already appears to be waning for EUR/USD, but I do not rule out at least a test of 1.0750 and 1.0825, the multi-decade breakout line. A weekly close above the latter is needed to suggest a medium-term low is in place. GBP/USD fell overnight, crushed by EUR/GBP buying, poor data and tax and political risk. It finished 0.42% lower at 1.2535 where it remains in Asia today. Sterling faces political risks, outlined above, today, and these will limit gains. It now has support at 1.2470, with a double top now at 1.2600. Even if the US dollar sell-off continues, sterling will remain euro’s poor cousin. AUD/USD remains steady at 0.7100 today, having probed the downside overnight Lower US yields saw USD/JPY fall 0.85% to 126.85 overnight where it remains in Asia, just below support, now resistance, at 127.00. A deeper selloff, potentially targeting the 125.00 support area, remains entirely possible given the market is still clearly very long USD/JPY. Once again, at those levels though, given the trajectory of US and Japan interest rates, being short becomes a dangerous game. AUD/USD remains steady at 0.7100 today, having probed the downside overnight. AUD/NZD buying is capping gains for now. A hawkish RBNZ today has sent the Kiwi dollar flying, NZD/USD jumping 0.65% to 0.6500. The rally is already showing signs of fatigue and a weekly close above 0.6550 is required to signal a potential medium-term low. Support is distant at 0.6420. Asian FX continued gaining against the US dollar overnight, but a stronger greenback in Asian time has erased those gains. A neutral USD/CNY fixing by the PBOC has given Asian markets little to go on today, with USD/CNY, USD/CNH and USD/THB rising by around 0.30%, while USD/KRW has risen by 0.10%. An impending Bank of Korea hike on Friday should limit the won’s weakness. The Malaysian ringgit looks like the most vulnerable regional currency right now, USD/MYR trading near 4.4000 today. With policy tightening gaining momentum among other Asian central banks, today’s benign inflation data reinforced that outlook. USD/MYR could potentially test 4.4500 by early next week. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Ending a bad month in the red

What's The Future Of British Pound (GBP)? Stocks: Snap Has Fallen! How Far Will New Zealand Dollar Go!? | Least worst choices | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 25.05.2022 11:05
RBNZ hikes by 50-bps The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has raised policy rates by 0.50% to 2.0% this morning, with Governor Orr setting a hawkish tone in the press conference afterwards. In the statement itself, the RBNZ’s “least worst choices” policy seemed to imply that although external risks remained, the domestic economy was strong and could tolerate tighter monetary conditions. Mr Orr seemed to be saying much the same, suggesting that terminal rates could go above 3.0% and would get there sooner, rather than later. We’ll see just how strong the New Zealand economy is in due course, but a hawkish RBNZ has seen the New Zealand dollar rally by 0.70% to 0.6505 today, making it the biggest currency gainer in Asia today. Elsewhere, Singapore’s GDP growth came in tight on expectations, rising by 3.70% YoY for Q1. With inflation data yesterday also less worse than expected, expectations for another unscheduled tightening by the Monetary Authority of Singapore have receded for now. That may bring some relief to the Malaysian ringgit, which has fallen to 3.20 against the Singapore dollar. Snap Has Fallen In Malaysia itself, Inflation data for April continues to remain benign as domestic demand stays subdued. Inflation YoY rose by just 2.30% and will leave Bank Negara, like Bank Indonesia yesterday, in no hurry to tighten monetary policy. Ominously though, the Malaysian ringgit has shown no strength versus the US dollar. USD/MYR remains at recent highs at 4.4000 even as the greenback is experiencing an extended bull market correction versus the G-10 and EMFX elsewhere. If the US dollar turns higher once again, and the MYR resumes its sell-off, Bank Negara’s hand might be forced. Overnight, the recession word weighed on stock markets once again. European PMI data was a mixed bag. Manufacturing PMIs held steady, while Services PMIs fell as consumer demand takes a hit from the rise in the cost of living. That wasn’t enough to stop the euro rally, powered by suddenly hawkish ECB heavyweights. Bank of England, has already signalled a white flag on bringing down inflation The picture was rather grimmer in the United Kingdom where the most honest central bank in the world, the Bank of England, has already signalled a white flag on bringing down inflation and pencilled in a recession next year. UK Manufacturing PMI held steady at 54.6, but Services PMIs plummeted to 51.8. The UK is facing a winter of discontent as the cost of living soars, with the railways RMT union voting to strike over pay negotiations. Expect more of this going forward. Additionally, the Chancellor is apparently preparing to widen the scope of the windfall tax on energy companies, probably to help pay for his cost of living mini-budget. UK stock markets didn’t like that. Finally, the “party gate” report on those lockdown wine frenzies in the No 10 garden is due for release today, potentially putting more pressure on PM Johnson’s leadership. ​ Little surprise that the sterling slumped versus the euro and the US dollar overnight. In the United States, the recession world hit particularly hard after the Snap Inc. induced meltdown by Nasdaq stocks overnight. US New Home Sales plummeted to 591,000 in April, while Richmond Fed Manufacturing slumped to -9 in May. The S&P Global Services Flash PMI for May fell to 53.5, with Flash Manufacturing easing to 57.5. It was the new home sales that really frightened the street, though, as house building, and its ancillary services and suppliers are a good chunk of US domestic GDP. Soaring mortgage interest rates and petrol prices appear to be doing a lot of the Fed’s work for it before it even gets started. Read next: (TRX) TRON USD Decentralised Blockchain Platform That Focuses On Entertainment And Content Sharing. Altcoins: A Deep Look Into The TRON Network | FXMAG.COM If there is one takeout from all of this for me, it is that rising inflation and borrowing rates are already crimping the demand side of the equation. Unfortunately, we are seeing very little sign of price pressures reducing due to a combination of factors, all of which have been thrashed to death here and in research everywhere. The uncomfortable reality is that central banks are going to be forced to continue the tightening path, even as growth slows around the world, because inflation has proven sticky and not transitory. That is the least worst choice central banks need to make in a stagflationary environment. I am asked every day if we have seen the low in the equity market sell-off. Hopefully, I have answered the question. US President Joe Biden’s trip around Asia continues Finally, US President Joe Biden’s trip around Asia continues. Unfortunately, with its emphasis on containing China and hawking a trade agreement empty of potential access to the US domestic market (Congress needs to approve that), the trip is not going to make much headway in re-establishing US leadership in the region. Asia really needs to see the colour of America’s money. Furthermore, the reliability of the US as a partner has taken a further hit today, with White House officials explicitly refusing to rule out the possibility that the US could enact crude oil export restrictions to help cap energy prices domestically. The US doesn’t have a crude oil problem, it has a refining and transportation problem, but let’s not let facts get in the way. I have warned about food nationalism previously, but if President Biden prioritises November’s mid-term elections over the economic war with Russia, and supporting Europe, it really is every man for himself globally. I can’t see that being positive for equities anywhere, or European asset markets full stop, or for Ukraine. Only the Kremlin is likely to be popping champagne as the US does Russia’s divide and conquer for them. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Video: A Wide Range Of Forex Pairs AUD/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD And GBP/USD Analysed By Jason Sen (DayTradeIdeas)

Video: A Wide Range Of Forex Pairs AUD/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD And GBP/USD Analysed By Jason Sen (DayTradeIdeas)

Jason Sen Jason Sen 30.05.2022 07:45
AUDUSD finally tests very strong resistance at 7135/55. Shorts need stops above 7175. A break higher this week is a buy signal targeting 7230/50. Shorts need stops above 7275. Shorts at 7135/55 target 7090 then 7060/50. Further losses test support at 7020/10. Longs need stops below 7000. USDJPY shorts at resistance is at 127.50/70 need stops above 127.80. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 128.20/30, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 128.70/90. Holding resistance is at 127.50/70 targets 127.20/00. A break below 126.80 targets 126.30/20 & eventually 125.80. EURJPY holding strong resistance at 136.50/70 (perfectly on Thursday & Friday) targets 135.60/50 for profit taking on shorts. Further losses target 135.35/25. If we continue lower look for 134.65/55 then strong support at 134.20/00 for profit taking on any shorts. We should have strong resistance again at 136.50/70. Shorts need stops above 136.95. A break higher targets 137.20/30 then 138.00/20. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM EURUSD longs at support at 1.0670/50 start to work on the bounce towards strong resistance at 1.0800/20 for profit taking. Shorts need stops above 1.0835. Support again at 1.0670/55. Longs need stops below 1.0640. Strong support at 1.0600/1.0590. GBPUSD made a high for the day 6 pips above strong resistance at 1.2640/60. Shorts need stops above 1.2680. A break higher this week is a buy signal initially targeting 1.2725/45. Shorts at 1.2640/60 target 1.2590, perhaps as far as 1.2555/45 for profit taking. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Crude Oil Is Said To Shape Euro To US Dollar (EUR/USD). Forex Cable (GBP/USD) May Be Supported By BoE Sooner Than Later. (USD/JPY) - Can Japanese Yen Rise? | Oanda

Crude Oil Is Said To Shape Euro To US Dollar (EUR/USD). Forex Cable (GBP/USD) May Be Supported By BoE Sooner Than Later. (USD/JPY) - Can Japanese Yen Rise? | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 30.05.2022 13:22
Still improving risk sentiment sends US dollar lower The US dollar declined once again on Friday as improving risk sentiment continues to unwind the 2022 US dollar rally. That has spilt over into Asian markets today, with regional currencies booking some decent gains versus the greenback this morning. On Friday, the dollar index edged 0.12% lower to 101.64, losing another 0.13% to 101.50 in Asia. Support remains at 101.00, with resistance at 102.50. EUR/USD EUR/USD held steady on Friday, closing almost unchanged at 1.0735, with US dollar weakness being reflected in EMFX and the commonwealth currencies. It has gained 0.20% to 1.0755 in Asia, but overall, seems locked in a 1.0700 to 1.0800 range. Oil’s rally may temper single currency gains, with the multi-decade breakout line, today at 1.0830, still a formidable barrier. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM GBP/USD GBP/USD closed 0.20% higher at 1.2630 on Friday, adding another 0.14% to 1.2640 in Asia. GBP/USD looks set to trade in a noisy 1.2600 to 1.2700 range as the week gets underway. The government’s cost of living package may prompt faster BOE tightening, supporting the downside, while the economic slowdown continues to slow upside progress. USD/JPY USD/JPY is trading sideways, ranging each side of 127.00 as US yields trade in narrow ranges. That is likely to continue with US bond markets closed today. The chart suggests USD/JPY has further downside potential that could target 125.00. Only a move through trendline resistance at 127.80 changes the picture. AUD/USD & NZD/USD AUD/USD and NZD/USD continue to be driven entirely by swings in global risk sentiment. Another strong performance by Wall Street on Friday maintained that upward momentum and both AUD and NZD were prime beneficiaries. AUD/USD rallied by 0.85% to 0.7160, adding another 0.20% to 0.7175 today. It has resistance at 0.7260, and support at 0.7100. NZD/USD rose by 0.86% to 0.6536 on Friday, rising another 0.17% to 0.6547 today. Resistance nearby at 0.6570 opens a larger rally to 0.6650, with support at 0.6475. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM Asian FX rode improving investor risk sentiment higher on Friday, moves reflected throughout the EM space. Gains were led by the Chinese yuan, Korean won, and New Taiwan dollar, all gaining around 0.70%, while even the beleaguered Malaysian ringgit out in a good show, USD/MYR falling to 4.3770. Both the Indonesian rupiah and the Malaysian ringgit should find further strength on higher oil prices, even though it increases their domestic subsidy bills. Oil’s strength is likely the reason the Indian rupee has remained unchanged from Friday through today. CNY, KRW and NTD are rallying strongly today, likely boosted by China’s reopening hopes. USD/CNY, USD/KRW, and USD/NTD have fallen by around 0.80% today. However, if oil prices continue to rise this week, the rally in energy-importing Asian currencies may run out of steam. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
CNB has spent EUR7bn since May in defending the koruna

Supporting EUR, USD And Others - What Is Interest Rate? What Is A Negative Interest Rate | Binance Academy

Binance Academy Binance Academy 01.06.2022 16:55
TL;DR It doesn’t make much sense to lend money for free. If Alice wants to borrow $10,000 from Bob, Bob will need a financial incentive to loan it to her. That incentive comes in the form of interest – a kind of fee that gets added on top of the amount Alice borrows. Interest rates profoundly impact the broader economy, as raising or lowering them greatly affects people’s behavior. Broadly speaking: Higher interest rates make it attractive to save money because banks pay you more for storing your money with them. It’s less attractive to borrow money because you need to pay higher amounts on the credit you take out. Lower interest rates make it attractive to borrow and spend money – your money doesn’t make much by sitting idle. What’s more, you don’t need to pay huge amounts on top of what you borrow. Learn more on Binance.com Introduction As we’ve seen in How Does the Economy Work?, credit plays a vital role in the global economy. In essence, it’s a lubricant for financial transactions – individuals can leverage capital that they don’t have available and repay it at a later date. Businesses can use credit to purchase resources, use those resources to turn a profit, then pay the lender. A consumer can take out a loan to purchase goods, then return the loan in smaller increments over time. Of course, there needs to be a financial incentive for a lender to offer credit in the first place. Often, they’ll charge interest. In this article, we’ll take a dive into interest rates and how they work.   What is an interest rate? Interest is a payment owed to a lender by a borrower. If Alice borrows money from Bob, Bob might say you can have this $10,000, but it comes with 5% interest. What that means is that Alice will need to pay back the original $10,000 (the principal) plus 5% of that sum by the end of the period. Her total repayment to Bob is, therefore, $10,500. So, an interest rate is a percentage of interest owed per period. If it’s 5% per year, then Alice would owe $10,500 in the first year. From there, you might have: a simple interest rate – subsequent years incur 5% of the principal or  a compounded interest rate – 5% of the $10,500 in the first year, then 5% of $10,500 + $525 = $11,025 in the second year, and so on.   Why are interest rates important? Unless you transact exclusively in cryptocurrencies, cash, and gold coins, interest rates affect you, like most others. Even if you somehow found a way to pay for everything in Dogecoin, you’d still feel their effects because of their significance within the economy. Take a commercial bank – their whole business model (fractional reserve banking) revolves around borrowing and lending money. When you deposit money, you’re acting as a lender. You receive interest from the bank because they lend your funds to other people. In contrast, when you borrow money, you pay interest to the bank. Commercial banks don’t have much flexibility when it comes to setting the interest rates – that’s up to entities called central banks. Think of the US Federal Reserve, the People’s Bank of China, or the Bank of England. Their job is to tinker with the economy to keep it healthy. One function they perform to these ends is raising or lowering interest rates. Think about it: if interest rates are high, then you’ll receive more interest for loaning your money. On the flip side, it’ll be more expensive for you to borrow, since you’ll owe more. Conversely, it isn’t very profitable to lend when interest rates are low, but it becomes attractive to borrow. Ultimately, these measures control the behavior of consumers. Lowering interest rates is generally done to stimulate spending in times when it has slowed, as it encourages individuals and businesses to borrow. Then, with more credit available, they’ll hopefully go and spend it. Lowering interest rates might be a good short-term move to rejuvenate the economy, but it also causes inflation. There’s more credit available, but the amount of resources remains the same. In other words, the demand for goods increases, but the supply doesn’t. Naturally, prices begin to rise until an equilibrium is reached. At that point, high interest rates can serve as a countermeasure. Setting them high cuts the amount of circulating credit, since everyone begins to repay their debts. Because banks offer generous rates at this stage, individuals will instead save their money to earn interest. With less demand for goods, inflation decreases – but economic growth slows.   ➟ Looking to get started with cryptocurrency? Buy Bitcoin on Binance!   What is a negative interest rate? Often, economists and pundits speak of negative interest rates. As you can imagine, these are sub-zero rates that require you to pay to lend money – or even to store it at a bank. By extension, it makes it costly for banks to lend. Indeed, it even makes it costly to save. This may seem like an insane concept. After all, the lender is the one assuming the risk that the borrower may not repay the loan. Why should they pay?  This is perhaps why negative interest rates are something of a last resort to fix struggling economies. The idea comes from a fear that individuals may prefer to hold onto their money during an economic downturn, preferring to wait until it recovers to engage in any economic activity.  When rates are negative, this behavior doesn’t make sense – borrowing and spending appear to be the most sensible choices. This is why negative interest rates are considered to be a valid measure by some, under extraordinary economic conditions.   Closing thoughts On the surface, interest rates appear to be a relatively straightforward concept to grasp.  Nevertheless, they’re an integral part of modern economies – as we’ve seen, adjusting them can fundamentally alter the behavior of individuals and businesses. This is why central banks take such a proactive role in using them to keep nations’ economies on track. Do you have more questions about interest rates and the economy? Check out our Q&A platform, Ask Academy, where the Binance community will answer your questions.
FX Talking - Summer of discontent keeps dollar in demand | EUR/USD | USD/JPY | GBP/USD | ING Economics

FX Talking - Summer of discontent keeps dollar in demand | EUR/USD | USD/JPY | GBP/USD | ING Economics

ING Economics ING Economics 14.06.2022 10:04
The global economy can now be characterised as one in which many central bankers are poised to hike rates more forcefully, even as growth prospects are being revised lower. Investors are now having to ask which economies can best withstand these tighter monetary conditions and which currency to back? During this summer of discontent the answer to these questions largely remains the US economy and the dollar. Unlike the supply-driven inflation suffered in Europe, price rises in the US are far more a function of demand-side factors and suggest stagflation is less of a likelihood in the US than in Europe. And with no end in sight to tight energy markets, the US remains better positioned here too. We expect the Fed to deliver at least another 175bp of hikes this year as the Fed drives real US interest rates into restrictive territory. This is not good news for global growth – but that is the point, the Fed needs to slow demand. Flatter yield curves consistent with the latter stages of the US business cycle are normally good news for the dollar. In all this means that the dollar should stay bid this summer (1.00/1.02 is possible in EUR/USD), while USD/JPY in the 135/140 region looks ready to trigger Japanese intervention. GBP/USD can move to the low 1.20s as the BoE cycle is repriced lower and the CHF should start to outperform in Europe as the SNB guides it higher. CEE FX has become more mixed. We still favour the PLN, but HUF and now CZK look more vulnerable. This will be a fragile environment for most EMFX – especially those most exposed to China. Here USD/CNY can still push higher taking most of $/Asia with it. Developed markets EUR/USD A long, hot summer for the euro Current spot: 1.0476 Both the Fed and the ECB are in hawkish mode – both battling inflation near 8%. Both are probably happy with stronger currencies. The difference is the stagflationary shock from the war in Ukraine which makes the ECB unlikely to deliver on the 150bp of tightening priced in. There is also the issue of growth differentials and what they mean for international equity flows. These could start generating some euro under-performance. EUR/USD looks biased towards the lower end of a 1.02-1.08 range this summer. It looks far too early to pick the top in the Fed cycle. Higher US real rates also spell trouble for risk assets, including EM in general. This will also lend further support to the dollar USD/JPY Official concern and stretched valuations may help JPY Current spot: 134.43 The combination of aggressive Fed tightening (we look for at least another 175bp of Fed rate hikes this year), high energy prices and BoJ dovishness has sent USD/JPY to 135. Japanese officials are now officially unhappy with the rapid pace of JPY weakness. Sensible arguments go that the BoJ cannot intervene to sell $/JPY since: a) markets are not disorderly and b) BoJ is still printing money with QQE. Yet intervention is political & one never knows whether deals get cut behind the scenes We cannot rule out USD/JPY marching towards 140 given that this is a fundamentally driven, but intervention signals are flashing amber/red. Traded USD/JPY volatility can rise further. GBP/USD Bank of England tightening expectations are extreme Current spot: 134.43 GBP/USD looks as though it can trade back down to the 1.21/22 levels – largely on the back of dollar strength. But certainly an Unexploded Bomb (UXB) for sterling is the incredibly aggressive 175bp of tightening priced into the BoE cycle for year-end. This seems very extreme given that not all the MPC were on board with May’s 25bp hike. The 16 June BoE meeting is an event risk. UK growth will struggle in 2Q, although there is increasing speculation over tax cuts coming through this Autumn – in a bid to shore up Conservative support ahead of a possible ‘23 election. We doubt a Tory leadership change or Brexit tension has too much impact on sterling – a lot of bad news is already priced. Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more This article is a part of the report by ING: Source
GBP/USD analysis and forecast for June 30, 2022

How Much Is 1 EUR To USD? FX: Bristish Pound To US Dollar. Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 15, 2022 | InstaForex

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 15.06.2022 11:13
Relevance up to 09:00 2022-06-16 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Details of the economic calendar from June 14 Data on the UK labor market came out worse than expected. The unemployment rate increased from 3.7% to 3.8%, while the forecast assumed a decline to 3.6%. Employment in the country rose by 177,000, while jobless claims fell less than expected. In general terms, the indicators for the UK labor market are not the best. Analysis of trading charts from June 14 The EURUSD currency pair has slowed down its downward movement in the area of 1.0400. This move has led to variable turmoil, with the downside sentiment remaining among market participants. On the trading chart of the daily period, there is a gradual recovery of the downward trend relative to the recent correction. The GBPUSD currency pair has accelerated the decline after the prolongation of the medium-term downward trend. The increase in the volume of short positions led to the weakening of the pound sterling towards the psychologically important level of 1.2000. The scale of decline for three trading days amounted to about 550 points.     Economic calendar for June 15 The results of the Fed meeting are at the center of everyone's attention, where, due to a sharp increase in the inflation rate, experts are revising forecasts for the interest rate hike. Based on the last meeting, the regulator planned to continue hanging the rate by 50 basis points. The market, in turn, is concerned about rising inflation and lays down a rate increase of 75 basis points at once, which has already affected the US dollar exchange rate. Time targeting Results of the Fed meeting - 18:00 UTC Fed press conference - 18:30 UTC Trading plan for EUR/USD on June 15 Price stagnation within 1.0400/1.0500 keeps speculators on itself for a while. It can be assumed that the current stop plays the role of the accumulation of trading forces in the forthcoming acceleration in the market. Based on the above range, the best trading tactic is the outgoing momentum method, which will indicate the subsequent price move. We concretize the above into trading signals: Buy positions on the currency pair are taken into account after holding the price above the value of 1.0500 in a four-hour period. Sell positions should be considered after holding the price below 1.0400 in a four-hour period.     Trading plan for GBP/USD on June 15 The area of psychological level 1.1950/1.2000/1.2050 puts pressure on sellers. This led to a reduction in the volume of short positions and, as a result, a local pullback. Taking into account the oversold status of the pound sterling, we can assume further formation of a correction if the price holds above 1.2050 in a four-hour period. At the same time, the high interest of traders in speculative positions allows blocking the technical signal about the pound being oversold. In this case, holding the price below the value of 1.1950 in a four-hour period will lead to the subsequent inertial movement. What is reflected in the trading charts? A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future. The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313480
Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 30, 2022

FX: GBP/USD - British Pound jumps ahead of Fed, BOE meetings

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 15.06.2022 19:03
The British pound is in positive territory on Wednesday. This follows an abysmal 5-day slide which saw the pound fall as much as 600 points. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2060, up 0.53% on the day. FOMC expected to deliver 75-bp salvo All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, with the FOMC rate decision later today. The Fed is clearly under pressure as inflation surges with no peak in sight – CPI accelerated to 8.6% in April, up from 8.3% in March. This was the highest inflation rate since 1981. The Fed’s aggressive stance may shift into overdrive, with a 75-bp hike priced in by the markets at almost 100%. Just a few days ago, the most likely scenario was a 50-bps increase, but hawkish winds are blowing, and a 75-bp move will likely elicit a sharp response from the financial markets. Investors will also be closely monitoring the rate statement and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. I would not be surprised to see the US dollar cash in with strong gains following today’s meeting. The Fed finds itself in a tough spot as it struggles to combat inflationary pressures, which are now more than four times higher than the Fed’s inflation target of 2 per cent. The price for the Fed’s aggressive rate-hike cycle could well be a recession, but Fed policy makers clearly prefer a (hopefully) short recession rather than inflation expectations becoming unanchored. The big question is will the Fed manage to guide the US economy to a soft landing as it continues to aggressively raise rates. BoE expected to hike by 25bp After the Fed is done, attention will shift to the Bank of England, which holds its policy meeting on Thursday. The likely scenario is that the cautious BoE will raise rates by a modest 25 bps, but we could see a larger hike if the Fed is overly hawkish at its meeting. With unemployment in the UK at a low level of 3.7%, the BoE has room to be more aggressive with its monetary policy. As for the British pound, a 0.25% hike won’t be of much help. If the BoE surprises with a larger rate increase, the pound would likely respond with gains. . GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2108 and 1.2215 There is support at 1.1916. This is followed by 1.1772, a major support level. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
FX: Analysis and trading tips for GBP/USD on June 30

GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and significant key-levels - 15.06.2022

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 15.06.2022 22:26
Relevance up to 20:00 2022-06-16 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   The short-term outlook turned bearish when the market went below 1.3600. This enhanced the bearish side of the market initially towards 1.3360 then 1.3200 which initiated a temporary bullish movement towards 1.3600 for a final re-test. The price level of 1.3600 corresponding to the upper limit of the ongoing bearish channel initiated an aggressive bearish movement towards 1.2980 - 1.3000. The price level of 1.3000 stood a transient Support where a short-term consolidation movement existed. This happened just before two successive bearish dips could take place towards 1.2550 and 1.2160. Considerable bullish rejection was expressed around 1.2200. However, the pair failed to persist above 1.2550. This was needed to abolish the short-term bullish scenario for sometime. Instead, a quick bullish movement was executed towards 1.2650 where extensive bearish rejection existed. The GBP/USD pair remained under bearish pressure to challenge the new low around 1.2150 again which was recently bypassed. Price action around the current price levels of 1.2000 should be watched for a possible intraday BUY entry. Otherwise, further bearish continuation may pursue towards 1.1750 if sufficient bearish momentum is maintained Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280271
FX: GBP/USD - Hot forecast for 30/06/2022. What To Expect From British Pound?

1 GBP Price To Increase!? Is British Pound Going To Rally!? How Has USDCHF Changed After SNB Meeting? | Saxo Bank

John Hardy John Hardy 17.06.2022 14:47
Summary:  The Bank of Japan continues to swim against the stream of global central bank tightening as it maintained course overnight with its policy mix of negative yields and yield-curve-control, triggering a wave of fresh JPY weakening that was only moderated slightly by a sharp drop in US treasury yields. Elsewhere, the Swiss franc remains firm after the SNB-inspired spike and sterling is taking a stand after the Bank of England meeting yesterday. FX Trading focus: BoJ not for turning, GBP takes a stand. USD status check. The Bank of Japan refused to budge overnight, standing pat on its policy of yield-curve-control and announcing daily operations in the bond market to defend the policy, with no guidance suggesting a change of course, though a brief comment on foreign exchange was inserted into the policy statement: Concerning risks to the outlook, there remain extremely high uncertainties for Japan's economy, including the course of COVID-19 at home and abroad and its impact, developments in the situation surrounding Ukraine, and developments in commodity prices and overseas economies. In this situation, it is necessary to pay due attention to developments in financial and foreign exchange markets and their impact on Japan's economic activity and prices. That suggests that there is some level of JPY weakness at which the Bank of Japan may be forced to revisit its policy commitments, but that we aren’t there yet. Two key points to make in the wake of this announcement: first, additional JPY weakness from here is likely only a function of global yields continuing to trend higher, something we did not at all see yesterday as a weak batch of US data drove a strong rally in US treasuries and punched the US 10-year benchmark yield back toward the pivotal 3.20% area. Second is the CNHJPY rate, which has traded north of 20.00 in the wake of this BoJ meeting and whether China is set to make another move to prevent further JPY weakness relative to the renminbi after it appeared that the threat of the 20.00 level prompted China to weaken CNH sharply relative to the US dollar after a long period of stagnant USDCNH price action just at the point when CNHJPY hit 20.00 back in April. Elsewhere, we continue to digest the repercussions of the Swiss National Bank 0-basis point rate hike, which continues to reverberate. While the Bank of Japan pulls in the opposite direction as a country that is willing to risk further deterioration in the real value of its currency, the SNB has done the opposite with this move, allowing itself to front-run the ECB and establishing the franc’s purchasing power as a key consideration and going a long way to buying real yield credibility. Looking ahead, the concern will likely arise as the cycle plays out that the Fed simply can’t raise rates sufficiently drive solidly positive US real yields. USDCHF has suffered a complete derailing of the former up-trend as discussed in the chart below and when looking at the USD versus European currencies, at least, from SEK and GBP to CHF and EUR, we could suddenly be at a turning point here. Where is that turning point “confirmed”? We are already there in USDCHF, but a broader, at least tactical turn lower in the USD would require a pull higher and close above 1.0600 in EURUSD and perhaps 1.2500 in GBPUSD (the day after I thought GBPUSD might be in danger of a meltdown below 1.2000 on the small BoE hike…). Until then, the USD sell-off may be a one-off result of titanic USDCHF flows on the SNB decision. Chart: USDCHFThe bulls found their case broken all in one go in the wake of the SNB meeting, as USDCHF has been crushed seemingly irrevocably lower, suddenly creating a double-top formation. But the huge brushback may not yet lead significantly lower unless the USD is capitulating elsewhere (levels for other major USD pairs noted above) and the full break down here requires a capitulation down through the 0.9545 low and the old range highs below 0.9475. Source: Saxo Group Sterling rallied hard yesterday in the wake of the Bank of England meeting yesterday, with UK rates and the currency focusing more on the hawkish guidance the meeting produced rather than due to the small 25-basis point hike. The bank said it would react “forcefully” if inflation doesn’t develop as hoped (which will take some doing – the Bank of England expecting the CPI to hit north of 11.0% before falling back after October) which suggests the willingness to hike by 50 basis points even if the economic outlook is not promising. The price action post-BoE took GBPUSD well away from the cycle lows of 1.2000 posted earlier this week, trading as high as 1.2406 late yesterday, just above a major local 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent sell-off at 1.2387 and far above the prior low-water mark from May of 1.2156. As noted above, a full reversal in GBPUSD requires another rally surge through 1.2500, while the bears will only feel comfortable here again if the price action punches back down through 1.2200. Elsewhere, sterling hopefuls should have a look at EURGBP, where the latest leg higher above 0.8600 has been sharply reversed, carving out a more well-defined reversal. Watching the 0.8500 area for whether we follow through lower and back into the range extending below 0.8300 again there. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength. The JPY is reversing sharply back lower after last night’s BoJ – note the huge new momentum in CHF, while sterling is trying to shift out of negative territory in broad terms. CAD looks very heavy. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Interesting to note sterling pushing back and trying to flip to a positive trend against not only JPY, but also AUD and CAD here. Elsewhere, watching 1.3000 on the USDCAD and noting AUDCAD rolling over – is CAD in for a broader drubbing? Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1200 – Poland May Core CPI 1230 – Canada May Teranet/National Bank Home Price Index 1245 – US Fed Chair Powell to make opening remarks at a conference 1315 – US May Industrial Production / Capacity Utilization 1430 – UK Bank of England Chief Economist Pill to speak Source: FX Update: BoJ not for turning. GBP takes a stand. | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
The Commodities Feed: Gasoline stocks edge higher | ING Economics

Have Tech Stocks Plunged!? FX: So Bank Of Japan Seems To Delay Supporting JPY, British Pound (GBP) Rallied| Stock Markets: S&P 500 Lost 3.2%

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 17.06.2022 12:40
Summary:  The Bank of Japan continues to swim against the stream as it insisted on maintaining its yield-curve-control and negative policy rate at the meeting overnight, with daily operations to defend the yield cap on Japanese government bonds. Elsewhere, US equity markets continued to new lows even as US treasuries found strong support as a batch of weak US data points raises concerns on the US economic outlook.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures fully reversed and more the FOMC pump with S&P 500 futures closing at the 3,671 level yesterday down 3.2%, while technology stocks fell even more. The current drawdown is now the second deepest at the same time into the drawdown compared to previous historical drawdowns underscoring the seriousness of the current market regime. Initial jobless claims weakened yesterday, and the Philly Fed survey showed significant downward pressure on new orders hitting levels typical of recessions. The fear of recession could short-term keep a lid on interest rates and thus ironically support equities and maybe cause a mild rebound over the coming weeks. The VIX forward curve remains well behaved suggesting no panic yet in US equities. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI.I) and China’s CSI300 (000300.I) The indices were up more than 1% despite ugly selloffs in overseas markets overnight. The fall in property prices in the top 70 cities slowed to -0.2% m/m vs April -0.3%.  Property prices in Tier-1 cities rose 0.4% m/m and the declines in Tier-2 and lower-tier cities moderated. On the other hand, JD.COM’s (09618) JD Retail CEO told Bloomberg that recovery in consumption in China had been slow from the reopening of cities, such as Shanghai. The Company was expecting that it would take a long time for household consumption to recover as the economy and household income had been severely hit over this wave of lockdown. EURGBP and GBPUSD Sterling rallied hard yesterday in the wake of the Bank of England meeting yesterday on the guidance the meeting produced rather than due to the smaller 25-basis point hike. its reversal yesterday took GBPUSD well away from the cycle lows of 1.2000 posted earlier this week, trading as high as 1.2406 late yesterday, just above a major local 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent sell-off at 1.2387 and far above the prior low-water mark from May of 1.2156. A full reversal in GBPUSD requires another rally surge through 1.2500. Elsewhere, sterling hopefuls should have a look at EURGBP, where the latest leg higher above 0.8600 has been sharply reversed, suggesting a more well-defined reversal. Watching the 0.8500 area for whether we follow through lower and back into the range extending below 0.8300 again. USDJPY and JPY pairs With the Bank of Japan voting 8-1 to maintain course and the 0.25% cap on 10-year JGB yields, the JPY weakened sharply after a bout of speculation this week that Governor Kuroda and company might relent on its policy and bring a sharp resetting of the JPY higher. In the background, ironically, a powerful rally in global bonds yesterday was a JPY-supportive development that has eased the JPY-negative impact of the overnight BoJ decision. The BoJ statement did say that the Bank needs to pay attention to the FX level, from which one might infer that there is a JPY weakness level that the BoJ would find unacceptable and could prompt a change of course in the future. From here, the only route to a higher JPY is via a new drop in bond yields and shift away from CB tightening elsewhere or if the Bank of Japan is seen as giving up on its policy at a later date, possibly on coming inflation releases and risks of a weaker JPY raising the cost of living to an unacceptable degree. Crude oil (OILUKAUG22 & OILUSJUL22) Crude oil is heading for its first weekly decline in six with global growth concerns and prolonged lockdowns in China being the main catalyst. On top of that the short-term technical outlook has weakened following several failed attempts to break higher, but given the tight supply outlook, highlighted by the IEA earlier in the week. Support in Brent is likely to emerge already between $116 and $113.25. NY Harbor Diesel (HOc1) and gasoil (GASOILUKJUL22) both trades higher on the week, a reflection of the tightness that despite growth concerns, is likely to keep the energy sector supported.  Gold (XAUUSD)  Gold remains rangebound following a two-day rally that was supported by US growth concerns and a continued rout in cryptos and global stock markets. Together with another dose of weak U.S. data (see below) they helped send US treasury yields and the dollar lower on Thursday, thereby easing some of the recent pressure on bullion.  Total holdings in bullion-backed ETFs have declined by less than 0.25% this past week, a strong sign that investors look to gold for protection against the rout in global markets, together with increased focus on the need to hedge against the risk of stagflation.  On a relative basis gold’s year-to-date outperformance against the S&P 500 has reached 24%, long-end bonds 26% and 75% against blockchain (BKCH:arcx). US Treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasuries rallied hard yesterday amidst ugly sentiment in the equity market and on a set of weak US data points pointing to a decelerating housing sector (more below), with weekly jobless claims remaining near the highs of the last few months. The US 10-year treasury yield has declined back to the pivotal area around 3.20%, which was the cycle high before the latest surge toward 3.50%. An extension of the rally that takes yields significantly back below that 3.20% mark would suggest that we have reached a cycle peak for now and further consolidation is set to follow, perhaps on concerns for an incoming recession. What is going on? Bank of Japan defies the global tightening wave The Bank of Japan maintained the negative 0.10% policy rate today, confirming that it won't join the Federal Reserve and other major global central banks in tightening monetary policy. The Japanese central bank will keep its target for the 10-year Japanese government-bond yield at+0.25% and announced daily operations to ensure the cap on yields is maintained. While the central bank said we will take additional easing measures without hesitation if needed, there was a rare reference to the yen weakness. Swiss National Bank surprises with 50 basis point hike yesterday The Swiss National Bank, according to surveys, was not expected to hike rates yesterday, though a rapidly growing minority of observers were looking for a rate rise. The hike of 50 basis points brought the policy rate to –0.25% and makes it clear that the SNB is happy to separate itself from ECB policy and allow the CHF to strengthen as one of the tools to combat rising inflation risks in the country. EURCHF sold off below 1.0200 after trading above 1.0400 ahead of the decision. USDCHF slid to lows of 0.9632 from above parity the day before the decision. The Bank of England hikes 25 basis points, sharpens forward guidance language The majority of observers were looking for the 25-basis point move from the BoE, with some residual uncertainty on whether the bank might hike by more due to the large Fed rate hike this week and the weakness in sterling. Three MPC members of the nine voting wanted a 50-bp hike. At the same time, the BoE predicted that CPI would peak slightly above 11% in October, said that it would respond “forcefully” on any signs of worsening inflation, language that kept the short end of the UK yield curve pinned near the cycle highs. China centric commodities remain under pressure China centric commodities such as iron ore SCON2), coal and copper (COPPERUSSEP22) remain under pressure after China advised its covid restrictions probably won’t ease until next year. In addition, the recent spate of weaker than expected economic US data combined with central banks stepping up their fight to combat inflation have raised concerns about the outlook for global growth in general. US economic indicators weaken US building permits and housing starts eased in May to 1.695mn and 1.549mn respectively while the initial jobless claims were at 229k versus 217k expected. Further, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey printed a negative figure of -3.3 for June, the first such contraction since May 2020. More so, the future activity index was contractionary for the first time since the GFC. Adobe shares slip 5% in extended trading on revenue outlook miss As we highlighted on our podcast yesterday Adobe’s earnings were a test of business investment in marketing and content activities. While the business remains sticky the company put out a revenue outlook at $17.7bn vs est. $17.9bn due some demand weakness, Russia impact and USD headwinds.   What are we watching next? US recession concerns rising The mix of data this week generally raises concerns that the US economy is decelerating, but the evidence is patchy and will need confirmation for this to become a a more entrenched theme. At the same time, equity traders have to figure out whether they should celebrate weak data as something that will eventually lead US yields lower and see the pace of Fed tightening eventually reversing or fret weak data because of the implications for corporate profits. The next US data points of interesting include the preliminary Services and Manufacturing PMI surveys for June next week. Fed blackout period ending The Fed speakers will be back in action as the blackout period ends. Chair Powell is speaking later today at the inaugural conference on the International Roles of the US Dollar. Other Fed speakers are due as well including Esther George who voted for a 50bps rate hike this week. Earnings Watch Next week’s earnings calendar is light but there are three important earnings releases to watch and those are Lennar, FedEx, and Accenture that all will give insights into the US housing market, logistics, and recruitment dynamics. Monday: Kanzhun Tuesday: Lennar Thursday: FedEx, Accenture, Darden Restaurants, FactSet Friday: Carnival, China Gas, CarMax Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Eurozone May Final CPI 1200 – Poland May Core CPI 1230 – Canada May Teranet/National Bank Home Price Index 1245 – US Fed Chair Powell to make opening remarks at a conference 1315 – US May Industrial Production / Capacity Utilization 1430 – UK Bank of England Chief Economist Pill to speak Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – June 17, 2022 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
End of Quarter; Outlook for US dims, but China shines; H2 may make bonds relevant again in a portfolio

How Is GBP/USD Doing? British pound pares post-BoE gains | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 17.06.2022 15:40
Pound jumps after BoE rate hike The pound had a wild day on Thursday, trading in a 350-point range. Sterling traded in a 300-point range overnight, with markets not quite sure to make of the BoE’s 0.25% rate increase. In the end, the pound received a thumbs-up and posted a gain of 1.45%.  The rate hike, which was the fifth in a row, was indeed modest, but investors liked that the BoE signalled that more rate hikes were on the way. As well, the MPC’s split 6-3 decision (3 members voted for a 0.50% hike) no doubt sent a signal that the BoE could provide a hawkish pivot if inflation does not peak. The BoE has warned of a recession and has forecast that inflation will top 11%, making it difficult to feel reassured by the central bank, but it appears that with the MPC unanimously voting to raise rates at the meeting, investors had something to feel positive about. The US dollar has shown that it can recover quickly and the risk for the pound remains tilted to the downside, with dark clouds hovering above the UK economy. GDP fell by 0.3% in April after a 0.1% decline in March, the first back-to-back contractions since March 2020, at the start of the Covid pandemic. The OECD has forecast that the UK economy will grow by 3.6% this year, but will stagnate in 2023, which would make it the worst-performing G-7 economy in 2023. In a week of dramatic central bank decisions, the Federal Reserve won the highlight of the week. The Fed delivered a 0.75% salvo, the first since 1994, bringing rates to a target range of 1.50-1.75%. The Fed downgraded its US growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023, but insisted that there would be no recession. Some analysts would beg to disagree, but the financial markets were relieved, as Fed Chair Powell said he didn’t expect 0.75% rate hikes to become common. The move is a clear signal that the Fed plans to use all available tools to wrestle down inflation, which has hit a 40-year high. . GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD has support at 1.2215 and 1.2016 There is resistance at 1.2407 and 1.2514     This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. British pound pares post-BoE gains - MarketPulseMarketPulse
GBP/USD Increased, S&P 500 Went Down By Ca. 1%, Nasdaq Lost 1.33%. EUR/USD Exited Below-1.04 Levels

FX Cable (GBPUSD): Technical analysis of GBP/USD for June 17, 2022 | InstaForex

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.06.2022 16:14
Relevance up to 15:00 2022-06-18 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. The GBP/USD pair is at an all-time low against the dollar around the spot of 1.1933. The GBP/USD pair is inside in downward channel. Closing below the major resistance (1.2342 - 61.8% of Fibonacci) could assure that GBP/USD will move lower towards cooling new lows. The GBP/USD pair is continuing dropping by market cap at 3% in a day, 16.33% in a week, and 61.09% in a month, and is trading at 1.2230 after it reached 1.2186 earlier. The GBP/USD pair has been set below the strong resistance 1.2342, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an downtrend. RSI (14) sees major descending resistance line acting as resistance to push price down from here (1.2342). Equally important, the RSI and the moving average (100) are still calling for an downtrend. Therefore, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.2264 in the H1 chart. Also, if the trend is buoyant, then the currency pair strength will be defined as following: GBP is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend. The market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend around the spot of 1.2342 and/or 1.2264. Sell orders are recommended below the area of 1.2264 with the first target at the price of 1.2186; and continue towards 1.2089 in order to test the last bearish wave. The descending movement is likely to begin from the level 1.2264 with 1.2186 and 1.2089 seen as targets. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the GBP/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 1.2264 towards the major support level at 1.2089 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 1.2089, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.2089. On the other hand, if the GBP/USD fails to break through the support price of 1.2089 today, the market will rise further to 1.2342 in coming hours. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280655 Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280655
FX: Analysis and trading tips for GBP/USD on June 30

FX: Will (GBP) British Pound Strengthen For Good!? GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and significant key-levels | InstaForex

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.06.2022 22:54
Relevance up to 22:00 2022-06-18 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   The short-term outlook turned bearish when the market went below 1.3600. This enhanced the bearish side of the market initially towards 1.3360 then 1.3200 which initiated a temporary bullish movement towards 1.3600 for a final re-test. The price level of 1.3600 corresponding to the upper limit of the ongoing bearish channel initiated an aggressive bearish movement towards 1.2980 - 1.3000. The price level of 1.3000 stood a transient Support where a short-term consolidation movement existed. This happened just before two successive bearish dips could take place towards 1.2550 and 1.2160. Considerable bullish rejection was expressed around 1.2200. However, the pair failed to persist above 1.2550. This was needed to abolish the short-term bullish scenario for sometime. Instead, a quick bullish movement was executed towards 1.2650 where extensive bearish rejection existed. The GBP/USD pair remained under bearish pressure to challenge the new low around 1.2150 again which was temporarily bypassed before Immediate bullish rejection could brin the pair back above 1.2150 again. Bullish persistence above 1.2300 will probably enable further bullish continuation towards 1.2650 where further decisions can be taken. On the other hand, another bearish visit may be expected to challenge 1.1950 again if sufficient bearish momentum is expressed.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280669
Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 30, 2022

Pound steady after rough week | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 20.06.2022 16:47
The British pound is slightly higher at the start of the week, and I expect a quiet session, with US markets closed for a holiday. British pound under pressure There was plenty of volatility from GBP/USD last week, as the currency started the week with gains, only to reverse directions and end the week in the red, the third losing week in a row. Perhaps the biggest red flag from the pound’s slide was the break below the symbolic 1.20 level last week, for the first time since 2020. The pound has been hammered in 2022, plunging as much as 1500 points. The BoE rate hike of 0.25% on Thursday failed to impress the markets, with GBP/USD sliding 1.37% in the Thursday session. Three of the nine MPC members voted for a 0.50% increase, and it appears that the 0.25% was too feeble a move by the BoE, even though the benchmark rate is now at its highest level since 2009. The markets have priced in a 60% chance of a 0.50% rise at the next meeting in August, and there will be strong pressure for the BoE to deliver a 0.50% salvo unless inflation unexpectedly begins to ease. The UK releases May CPI on Wednesday, with an estimate of 9.1%, up slightly from the April reading of 9.0%. The dark clouds hovering above the UK economy are not good news for the struggling pound. GDP fell by 0.3% in April after a 0.1% decline in March, the first back-to-back contractions since March 2020, at the start of the Covid pandemic. J.P. Morgan said on Friday that the likelihood of a recession in the UK has increased over the next year or two, warning that a recession in the US would spill over to the UK. . GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD has support at 1.2187 and 1.1969 There is resistance at 1.2441 and 1.2659   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Pound steady after rough week - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 30, 2022

FX: What Is Cable? British Pound To US Dollar (GBPUSD). Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 21, 2022

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.06.2022 10:20
Relevance up to 09:00 2022-06-22 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has been seen steadily moving towards the technical resistance located at the level of 1.2468, just where the main channel lower line is located. The bulls are temporary in change of the market, the momentum is strong and positive, so after the pull-back to the nearest technical support is done, the price keeps bouncing up. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.2281 and 1.2207. Nevertheless, the supply zone located between the levels of 1.2618 - 1.2697 is still the main obstacle for bulls that needs to be broken if the rally is expected to be continued.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2922 WR2 - 1.2665 WR1 - 1.2442 Weekly Pivot - 1.2193 WS1 - 1.1971 WS2 - 1.1712 WS3 - 1.1494 Trading Outlook: The price broke below the level of 1.3000 quite long time ago, so the bears enforced and confirmed their control over the market in the long term. The Cable is way below 100 and 200 WMA , so the bearish domination is clear and there is no indication of trend termination or reversal. The bulls are now trying to start the corrective cycle after a big Pin Bar candlestick pattern was made last week. The next long term target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1989. Please remember: trend is your friend.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/281021
Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 30, 2022

FX Cable Chart (GBP/USD) May Surprise You! Let's Have A Look How British Pound Is Doing Against US Dollar Ahead Of UK Inflation Rate| Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 21.06.2022 22:23
The pound is having a quiet week, after some sharp swings last week. Monday was a holiday in the US, and it was a quiet session for the US dollar. The currency markets are calm today as well, with the exception of the sinking Japanese yen. British pound eyes CPI Last week was the turn of the central banks to perform on stage, with the Fed, BoE and SNB all raising rates. All three central banks are keeping a close eye on rising inflation and tightening policy in order to wrestle down inflation. The BoE has been accused of raising a white flag with regard to inflation, and last week’s tepid rate hike of 0.25% won’t silence the critics. The UK releases the May inflation report on Wednesday, with headline CPI expected to nudge higher to 9.1%, up from 9.0% in April. The BoE estimates that inflation will peak above 11%, sometime later this year. With the BoE grimly predicting that inflation will hit double-digits, the cost of living crisis, which is already bad, is poised to get even worse. This has led to inflation expectations continuing to accelerate, and the UK rail strike, the biggest in 30 years, is a reflection of workers taking extreme action in the face of rising inflation. Consumer confidence is down, and a drop and consumer spending would be disastrous for an economy that may be headed for a recession. In the US, Fed Chair Powell will testify on Capitol Hill on Wednesday and Thursday, and the ratings should be high, following the Fed’s largest rate hike since 1994. Fed members Barkin and Mester will speak later today, and the markets will be listening, looking for insights regarding upcoming rate hikes. . GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2292. Above, we have resistance at 1.2441  There is support at 1.2187 and 1.1969 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. British pound calm ahead of inflation - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 30, 2022

FX Cable: Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 22, 2022 | InstaForex

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.06.2022 08:55
Relevance up to 07:00 2022-06-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has been seen steadily moving towards the technical resistance located at the level of 1.2468, just where the main channel lower line is located. The bulls managed to hit the level of 1.2323 and then the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern occurred and soon after that the price fell out of the acceleration channel. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.2207 and 1.2165. Nevertheless, the supply zone located between the levels of 1.2618 - 1.2697 is still the main obstacle for bulls that needs to be broken if the rally is expected to be continued.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2922 WR2 - 1.2665 WR1 - 1.2442 Weekly Pivot - 1.2193 WS1 - 1.1971 WS2 - 1.1712 WS3 - 1.1494 Trading Outlook: The price broke below the level of 1.3000 quite long time ago, so the bears enforced and confirmed their control over the market in the long term. The Cable is way below 100 and 200 WMA , so the bearish domination is clear and there is no indication of trend termination or reversal. The bulls are now trying to start the corrective cycle after a big Pin Bar candlestick pattern was made last week. The next long term target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1989. Please remember: trend is your friend.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/281201
Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 30, 2022

GBP/USD: Pound Remains Under Pressure After Inflation Report

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.06.2022 15:58
Relevance up to 06:00 2022-06-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. The pound-dollar pair is declining amid the release of data on inflation growth in the UK. The inflation report itself turned out to be very contradictory, but the downward momentum of GBP/USD is due to the general strengthening of the US currency. Demand for the dollar is growing ahead of the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in the US Congress. Powell will announce the semi-annual report and answer questions from congressmen. This is an important event that, as a rule, has a significant impact on the mood of the market. Moreover, at the moment there is a certain intrigue regarding Powell's rhetoric. According to some experts, he will admit the probability of a 75-point rate hike not only at the July meeting, but will not rule out such a scenario in the context of the September meeting.     But back to British inflation. Today's release really turned out to be controversial—the published figures can be interpreted both in favor of the pound and against it. On the one hand, the overall consumer price index rose again year-on-year, this time to 9.1%. The indicator has been showing consistent growth over the past 8 months. A similar dynamic was demonstrated by another indicator—the producer price index, which growth may be an early indication of increased inflationary pressure. Growth of up to 2.1% (in monthly terms) was recorded, with a growth forecast of up to 1.9%. In annual terms, the indicator also came out in the "green zone," rising to 22.1%. The producer price index added to the positive picture, also being above the forecast values. On the other hand, core inflation disappointed. And this factor, by and large, leveled the achievements of the other components of the release. The core consumer price index has shown positive dynamics over the past 7 months, but in May it still slowed down its growth, contrary to the opposite forecasts of most analysts. The indicator came out at around 5.9% with a forecast of growth to 6.0%. In the previous month, the indicator peaked at 6.2%. After the publication of the inflation report, the market was again cautiously talking about the fact that the Bank of England might revise its policy regarding the pace of interest rate hikes. To be more precise, the regulator can maintain the pace that was indicated at the end of the June meeting. Note that significant disagreements arose at the June meeting of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee. Three members of the BoE—Michael Saunders, Catherine Mann, and Jonathan Haskel - voted to raise the rate by 50 basis points. But they remained in the minority, as the other six of their Committee colleagues insisted on a 25-point increase. If the pace of core inflation slows further, the 50-point boosters will remain in the minority (if not reconsidered at all).         This factor did not allow GBP/USD buyers to develop corrective growth: the mark of 1.2300 (Kijun-sen line on the daily chart) remained unconquered. Traders have been trying to overcome this target for the past two days, but in vain. Moreover, today the bears of the pair once again seized the initiative and tested the area of the 21st figure. In general, if we disregard intraday price fluctuations, we can conclude that the GBP/USD pair is stuck in flat ahead of Powell's speech in Congress. Last week, the pound fell to 1.1933, after which GBP/USD sellers took profits and provoked an upward pullback. The upward corrective trend also quickly choked—as mentioned above, buyers were unable to conquer the area of the 23rd figure. As a result, the price got stuck in the range of 1.2160–1.2290, waiting for the next information impulse. It is obvious that Powell will set the tone for trading today. It is likely that he will voice a hawkish position, declaring the need to tighten monetary policy at an aggressive pace. Yesterday, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin made it clear that many members of the Fed support the idea of a 75-point rate hike following the results of the July meeting. Note that earlier Powell announced that in July the Fed would increase the rate by either 50 or 75 basis points. It is likely that today the head of the Fed will make it clear to congressmen that the regulator is ready to raise the rate by 75-point steps, not only in July but also in September. Such a message will significantly strengthen the position of the US currency, including in pair with the pound. Thus, in my opinion, before Powell's speech, the GBP/USD pair will be trading in the range of 1.2160–1.2290. Further prospects will depend on the rhetoric of the head of the Fed: if he supports the greenback, the pair may go to the base of the 21st figure. Otherwise, buyers will overcome the resistance level of 1.2300 (Kijun-sen line on D1) and try to approach the next price barrier 1.2380 (middle Bollinger Bands line on the same timeframe).   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/314199
GBP/USD Increased, S&P 500 Went Down By Ca. 1%, Nasdaq Lost 1.33%. EUR/USD Exited Below-1.04 Levels

1 GBP To USD Indicator analysis: Daily review of GBP/USD on June 27, 2022

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.06.2022 10:58
Relevance up to 09:00 2022-06-28 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Trend analysis (Fig. 1). The pound-dollar pair may move upward from 1.2269 (close of Friday's daily candle) to the target of 1.2385, the 61.8% retracement level (red dotted line). Upon reaching this level, the price may continue to move upward to the upper fractal 1.2404 (yellow dotted line). From this level, a downward pullback is possible.     Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – up; Fibonacci levels – up; Volumes – up; Candlestick analysis – up; Trend analysis – up; Bollinger bands – up; Weekly chart – up. General conclusion: Today the price may move upward from 1.2269 (close of Friday's daily candle) to the target of 1.2385, the 61.8% retracement level (red dotted line). Upon reaching this level, the price may continue to move upward to the upper fractal 1.2404 (yellow dotted line). From this level, a downward pullback is possible. Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.2269 (close of Friday's daily candle), the price may start moving down with the target of 1.2213, the historical support level (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, an upward movement is possible with the target of 1.2299, the 50.0% retracement level (red dotted line).   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/314567
FX: GBP/USD: plan for the US session on June 27 (analysis of morning deals). The sellers of the pound are back in business.

FX: GBP/USD: plan for the US session on June 27 (analysis of morning deals). The sellers of the pound are back in business.

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.06.2022 13:20
Relevance up to 12:00 2022-06-28 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the 1.2317 level and recommended making decisions from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened there. Growth and another unsuccessful attempt to get above 1.2317 by analogy with Friday's attempt to break out of the side channel – all this led to a sell signal for the pound. At the time of writing, the pair has gone down more than 40 points and the pressure on the trading instrument remains. From a technical point of view, nothing has changed, nor has the strategy itself changed. And what were the entry points for the euro?     To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: The lack of statistics on the pound allowed buyers to make another attempt to break 1.2317, but it was not possible to gain a foothold above this level. During the American session, data on the volume of sales of long-term goods were released today, which may increase pressure on the pound - if the indicators turn out to be much better than economists' forecasts. If the reports coincide with the forecasts, most likely the pair will continue trading in the side channel with the prospect of re-updating the resistance at 1.2317. In case of a return of pressure on the pound after the data, the bulls will try to protect 1.2241. Only the formation of a false breakdown there will give a signal to open new long positions in the expectation of growth to the nearest level of 1.2317. In the morning forecast, I said that this level is critically important for bulls since by returning it under control, it will be possible to count on the resumption of the bull market formed on June 14. A breakout and a top-down test of 1.2317 will give a buy signal based on the 1.2400 update. A similar breakthrough at this level will lead to another entry point into long positions with the prospect of reaching 1.2452, where I recommend fixing the profits. A more distant target will be the 1.2484 area. If GBP/USD falls and there are no buyers at 1.2241 in the afternoon, the pressure on the pair will increase. In this scenario, I advise you to open new long positions only on a false breakout from the lower border of the side channel 1.2171. You can buy GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.2102, or even lower – around 1.2030 with the aim of correction of 30-35 points within a day. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: The bears did everything possible to return to the market and defended 1.2317. Most likely, the emphasis will now be placed on 1.2241 and on fixing below this range. In the case of weak data on the index of pending sales in the real estate market and the volume of orders for durable goods in the United States, it will be possible to observe another upward jerk of the pound. Therefore, only the formation of a false breakdown at 1.2317 will lead to the formation of another sell signal with the prospect of a return to 1.2241. Its breakthrough will lead to a sell-off and a return of GBP/USD to the area of the lower border of the side channel. However, only a consolidation below 1.2241 and a reverse test from the bottom up will give an entry point into short positions. A more distant target will be the 1.2102 area, the test of which will testify to the defeat of buyers. With the option of GBP/USD growth and the absence of bears at 1.2317, we will only have to count on the nearest resistance of 1.2400. A false breakout at this level will give a good entry point into short positions in the expectation of at least some downward correction. If there is no activity at 1.2400, another upward jerk may occur against the background of the demolition of stop orders of speculative sellers. In this case, I advise you to postpone short positions to 1.2452. But even there, I advise selling the pound only in case of a false breakdown, since going beyond this range will increase demand for GBP/USD. Short positions can be viewed immediately for a rebound from 1.2484, or even higher – from 1.2516, counting on the pair's rebound down by 30-35 points inside the day.     The COT report (Commitment of Traders) for June 14 recorded a reduction in both long and short positions, which led to a slight decrease in the negative delta. After the meeting of the Bank of England, at which it was announced that it would adhere to the previous plan to raise interest rates and combat high inflation, the pound strengthened its position, which will affect future COT reports. For sure, the big players are taking advantage of the moment and buying back the much cheaper pound, despite all the negative that is happening with the UK economy now. However, one should not rely too much on the pair's recovery in the near future, since the policy of the Federal Reserve System will seriously help the US dollar in the fight against risky assets. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased by 5,275 to the level of 29,343, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 10,489 to the level of 94,939. This led to a decrease in the negative value of the non-commercial net position from the level of -70,810 to the level of -65,596. The weekly closing price decreased to 1.1991 against 1.2587.     Signals of indicators: Moving averages Trading is conducted around 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1. Bollinger Bands In the case of growth, the average border of the indicator around 1.2310 will act as resistance. In the case of a decline, the lower limit of the indicator in the 1.2240 area will act as support. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow. Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions use the futures market for speculative purposes and to meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/314610