brent oil price

EUR: EUR/USD looks vulnerable

We are increasingly hearing the term 'stagflation' to describe the Eurozone economy. As a growth-sensitive currency, stagflation is bearish news for the euro and was one of the key factors weighing on it at its birth in 1999. Adding to that story is now the supply-driven spike in energy, reviving fears of last summer's negative terms of trade story for the euro. In practice, that meant the eurozone's traditional trade surpluses turned into deficits and the euro got hammered. With natural gas prices still very subdued, this energy story will not hit the euro as hard as last year, but it remains unwelcome.

Regarding European Central Bank (ECB) policy, the market prices just a 25% probability of a 25bp hike next week. We think the chances are much higher than that. However, speculative positioning and the energy story leave EUR/USD in a vulnerable position and EUR/USD could easily slip through support at the 1.0700 area in a move to the 1.0635/40 area.


Oil jumps on EU ban, gold rises after Fed

Oil jumps on EU ban, gold rises after Fed

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 05.05.2022 15:30
Oil prices leap on EU oil ban Oil prices leapt higher overnight as markets digested the impact of the proposed EU ban on Russian oil imports. Additionally, the OPEC+ JTC is indicating that there will be no change in the monthly schedule of production increases, with some members in fact noting that China’s demand has slumped. Brent crude rose by 4.05% to USD 111.10 overnight, with WTI climbing by 3.90% to USD 107.55 a barrel. ​ In Asia, Brent and WTI have had a muted session, adding just 0.50% each to USD 110.60 and USD 108.10 respectively. In the bigger picture, Brent crude is still in a broader USD 100.00 to USD 120.00 range, and WTI in a USD 95.00 to USD 115.00 range. Only a weekly close above or below those levels signals a new directional move. Overall, we remain in a situation where the Ukraine/Russia conflict and the inability of OPEC+ to even meet their pre-agreed quotas is keeping spot prices tight, while China’s covid-zero-induced slowdown is acting to cap price increases. With the sanction situation on Russia escalating, and with Russian retaliation not out of the question, I believe the risks of the Ukraine conflict becoming more fully priced into energy markets are increasing.   Gold rallies on a weaker US dollar Gold rose sharply overnight as the US dollar plummeted post-FOMC after the Fed hiked by 0.50% as expected, and eased concerns around future 0.75% hikes. Gold rose 0.70% to USD 1881.50 an ounce, before continuing its rally in Asia, gaining an impressive 1.10% to USD 1901.65 today. The move in Asia is unusual, even more so because other asset classes in Asia are not showing a strong continuation of the US dollar sell-off seen overnight, although Asian currencies have rallied modestly in trading today. I suspect the buying is coming out of China as that market had returned from holidays today. From a technical perspective, gold reclaimed the 100-day moving average at USD 1881.00 overnight, which becomes intraday support, followed by USD 1850.00 and USD 1835.00 an ounce. Gold faces resistance at USD 1920.00 and USD 1960.00 an ounce. It is too early to say that gold prices have turned a corner. If the US dollar correction lower continues, then gold can certainly continue rallying. But if the US dollar sell-off runs out of steam, then gold will struggle to maintain gains above USD 1900.00 an ounce.   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
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Oil trades sideways, gold pares gains

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 06.05.2022 10:13
After initially leaping higher after the proposed EU ban on Russian oil was released, oil markets have spent the past two sessions consolidating those gains. Overnight, oil traded in a wide and choppy range, but ultimately, Brent crude finished just 0.80% higher at USD 110.95, and WTI rose 0.95% to USD 108.55 a barrel. In Asia, both contracts are almost unchanged in pre-weekend trading.   The news that the US will launch tenders to restock 60 million barrels of oil back into its SPR had no impact on prices overnight. Most likely as the tender exercise won’t start until autumn, an eon in these markets. Similarly, the OPEC+ announcement that it would proceed with its pre-planned 430,000 bpd production increase had no impact either. That is because, with OPEC+ compliance at over 160%, there is zero chance of certain members filling that quota anywhere as production challenges impact Nigeria and other African members.   That leaves oil at the mercy of the Ukraine/Russia conflict and the EU oil ban supporting the downside, while China slowdown fears, with some OPEC members noting much-reduced demand from the mainland, acting as a cap on upside price moves. I still believe markets are under-pricing Ukraine/Russia risks, but that story will have to wait for another day it seems.   Brent crude has formed a triple top at USD 114.75 a barrel, which will be a formidable barrier in the near term. Support lies at USD 103.50 a barrel and I am sticking to my broader USD 100.00 to USD 120.00 a barrel wider range for the months ahead for now. WTI has resistance at USD 111.50 with support at USD 100.00 a barrel. Once again, I remain comfortable with a USD 95.00 to USD 115.00 a barrel outlook in the medium term.   Gold is actually holding up quite well Like Grace Jones, gold is a slave to the rhythm, in this case, the rhythm of the US dollar. Gold staged quite an impressive rally in early trading yesterday, but as the US dollar soared, it gave back all those gains to finish 0.23% lower at USD 1877.00 an ounce, where it remains in moribund Asian trading.   Still, given the moves seen in other asset classes, gold is holding up reasonably well. It is steady despite US 10-year yields moving above 3.0% once again, and it is definitely outperforming bitcoin right now. That could be coincident with the return of China from holidays, or that there is more than a little risk-hedging based buying quietly going through the market.   Gold looks set to vacillate around its 100-day moving average, today at USD 1881.65, in a wide but real range of USD 1850.00 to USD 1920.00 an ounce, for the time being. Only failure of the break-out triangle apex at USD 1835.00 swings gold back into bearish territory. That said, gold needs to close above resistance at USD 1920.00, and preferably USD 1960.00 an ounce to get the gold bugs excited again. I see more whipsaw trading ranges in the days ahead.   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
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Prices Of Brent Crude Oil And Silver Fall As The US Dollar Strengthening, Corn Prices Face Downward Price Pressure.

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 09.05.2022 15:35
Summary: Brent crude oil prices are seeing some decline. Silver prices face downward pressure amidst the US Dollar Strengthening. Corn prices fall amidst worries about falling demand. Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold, Coffee and Crude Oil - Commodities Facing Price Trouble Over the Past Month  Brent crude oil price falls. The price of oil has fallen on Monday amidst concerns around the strengthening US Dollar which hit a two-decade high, making holding oil more expensive for other currencies. The lockdowns in China have raised concerns around the demand for oil from the world's biggest importer. In addition the world's biggest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, lowered the prices of crude for Europe and Asia in June. All of these factors have resulted in the price of Brent Crude Oil falling. Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart   Read next: What Is (DYDX)? dYdX Cryptocurrency Supporting Perpetual Trading - Altcoins of Interest | FXMAG.COM    As US yields increase, silver's value falls. The price of silver has been falling over the past week. The price fall comes as the Fed continues with their hawkish attitude. Silver is used as a hedge against inflation, with the Fed increasing the US yields in an attempt to fight inflation, the opportunity cost for holding silver increases. Investors are selling their silver and turning to investments where they can yield a higher return at the same level of risk i.e. US treasury bonds. Silver Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn prices facing downward price pressure. On monday the price of Corn futures had fallen by almost 1%, there has been a downward price trend for corn futures over the past week. There are still concerns around the lack of supply for corn all over the world, however, with the lockdowns in China, concerns around falling demand have risen. Last week the amount of traders who shorted corn outweighed those who chose to go long, indicating they expected the price to drop. Corn Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Read next: Soybean Prices Reached Almost Record Prices, Platinum Investors Turning To New Suppliers, Copper Prices Struggling To Recover.  Sources:,,,
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Some EU Governments Are Still In Favour Of Banning Russian Brent Crude Oil, Investors Turning To Silver As Demand For Safe-Haven Assets Rise, Corn Prices Fall Amidst Easing Supply Concers

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 30.05.2022 15:52
Summary: Lockdowns in China ease causing demand for Brent Crude to rise. Silver prices increase as market participants seek safe-haven assets. Supply concerns around corn are easing. read next (XAUUSD) Gold Prices Rose For Second Consecutive Week, Concerns Around Crude Oil Supply Continues To Drive Price, Soybean Prices Rising  Brent Crude Oil prices continue to rise The combination of Beijing and Shanghai beginning to come out of Covid-19 restrictions over the weekend and the ongoing European discussions regarding banning crude oil imports from Russia are causing concerns around supply to tighten. On Monday and Tuesday an EU governments will use a summit to continue to argue in favour of an embargo on Russian crude. The prices of Crude oil are going into their sixth straight month of gains amidst the supply concerns, as demand begins to rise back up to pre-pandemic levels. Brent Crude Oil Price Chart Silver prices are still on the rise A weaker US Dollar continues to give room for the price of silver to rise. Amidst continuing geopolitical tensions and growing concerns regarding slower global growth, investors are turning more towards safe-haven assets. Silver is considered to be a hedge against inflation, the Fed is still expected to tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates further at their next two meetings. Silver Jul ‘22 Futures Prices Corn prices are falling The price of corn futures fell late in May, to the lowest value in almost six weeks amidst expectations of higher supply and the easing of trading restrictions between major producers. Beijing and Brazil reached an agreement to begin corn exports from Brazil to China, after years of talks. In addition, actual planting of corn exceeded market expectations. The easing of supply concerns is slowly driving the price of corn futures down. Corn Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources:,
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Brent Crude Oil Prices, Silver Prices Hit Lowest Price In Four Weeks, Corn Prices Rise Amid Supply Concerns

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 13.06.2022 12:48
Summary: Rising covid cases in China and 40-year high US Inflation. The global economic outlook remains dim due to the rising borrowing costs, the war in Ukraine, high commodity prices and ongoing supply disruptions. Failed talks between Russia and Ukraine puts corn supplies under pressure. Read next: (XAUUSD) Gold Prices Falling In The Run-Up To US Inflation Data Release, NGAS Prices Fall But Remain Elevated, Coffee Prices  Brent Crude prices fall for third session Brent crude oil futures prices have fallen on Monday for their third session as investors have been monitoring the covid situation in China and have remained concerned that rising inflation may hinder growth and negatively impact the demand for oil. Major cities in China are fighting rising covid-19 cases with officials warning of “ferocious” Covid spread in Beijing. In addition, U.S inflation hit a 40-year high of 8.6% last month, which increases the likelihood of more aggressive interest rate hikes from the FED. On Saturday US Fuel prices went above $5 per gallon, extending the surge in fuel costs that is driving rising inflation. Goldman Sachs indicated on Friday that energy prices needed to increase further before achieving a destruction in demand that is sufficient for market rebalancing. Brent Crude Oil Price Chart Silver prices reaches its lowest level in 4 weeks Investors' worries around the global economic outlook and a more hawkish attitude from the Federal Reserve have been strengthening, pushing silver prices down to its lowest level in four weeks. The global economic outlook remains dim due to the rising borrowing costs, the war in Ukraine, high commodity prices and ongoing supply disruptions. The Fed is due to continue tightening its monetary policy during the coming week after US inflation reached 41-year highs during May, in addition the ECB and RBA have also chosen a more hawkish path as inflation shows no signs of peaking. Silver Jul ‘22 Futures Price Chart Corn Prices rising amidst concerns around supply. Corn prices reached nearly eight week highs in the wake of new concerns around grain supplies. Talks failed between two of the major corn suppliers, Russia and the Ukraine around the resuming of Ukrainian exports despite the Turkish efforts to negotiate a safe passage for grain stuck at the Black Sea Ports. Russian President Putin said free shipment depended on an end to sanctions on Russia. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources:,
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Concerns Over Tight Supplies Is Driving Brent Crude Oil Prices Up, Silver Prices Falling, Favourable Weather, Weak Demand & Tight Supplies - Factors Driving Corn Prices

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 04.07.2022 15:54
Summary: Concerns around tight Brent supplies outweighed concerns around a global recession dampening demand. Silver prices falling in the wake of an aggressive Fed. Traders weighed weak demand and favourable weather prospects against fears of tight supplies. Read more: Gold Futures Fell To Near 7 Week Lows, Investors Weighing Supply v Demand For WTI Crude, Platinum Prices  Brent Crude Oil prices are up on Monday Brent crude oil prices are up on Monday as concerns around tight supplies outweighed concerns around a global recession dampening demand. A Reuters survey showed that output from 10 OPEC members fell during June. In addition, exports from Libya also declined below expected levels and Norway's daily output is expected to decline due to a planned strike by Norwegian energy sector workers. Brent Crude Futures Price Chart Silver prices reaching 2 year lows Silver prices have been consistently declining to prices not seen since July of 2020, as they close in toward the $20 per-ounce mark. The price declines come in the wake of aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve to try to control high inflation levels which caused investors to turn away from the non-yielding metal. The Fed has reiterated their commitment to fighting inflation, setting expectations for a back-to-back 75 bps interest rate hike in July. Silver Sept ‘22 Futures Price Chart Investors weighing weak demand and favourable weather against tight supply fears Corn prices hovered around $7.5 per bushel as traders weighed weak demand and favourable weather prospects against fears of tight supplies. More corn crop has been planted than the March recordings, the crop flourished in its early stages of development after a late start to planting, this is due to the wet and cool conditions around most of the Midwest. Meanwhile, traders are watching the weather forecasts for the coming weeks as the corn enters its pollination phase which will determine the yields during the harvest that starts in September. At the same time, aggressive monetary tightening is raising fears of economic slowdown and demand destruction is causing concerns around demand for the grain. Corn Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources:,
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US Close: Another strong employment report, Wages growth slows, Stocks volatile, Oil rallies, Gold steadies

Ed Moya Ed Moya 06.05.2022 23:33
US stocks appear to be on a permanent rollercoaster ride as investors debate continued signs of a strong economy alongside rising rates, which remains a drag on higher valuation companies. For Wall Street to remain fully confident in piling back into stocks, inflation needs to be showing signs it is easing and that is not happening yet. ​ ​   Market conditions look dangerous but some of these discounts are looking very attractive. ​ It seems that the base case is still that the inflation peak is in place and that the Fed will look to signal a gradual tightening path. Unless inflation shocks prove otherwise, the risk-reward ratios for some of the beloved mega-cap tech stocks are looking attractive. ​ It won’t happen immediately, but when the economy starts to show signs of weakness, that will give investors the green light to buy stocks.   Investors just can’t confidently buy stocks as too much uncertainty persists with what will happen with global growth and how far the Fed will take tightening beyond the summer. ​   NFP The US labor market remains strong as broadbased hiring continues. The economy added 428,000 in April, much more than the analysts estimate of 380,000, also matching the slight downward revision in the prior month. Wage pressures might be showing signs of easing as average hourly earnings ticked lower. ​ Still most signs suggest the labor market is tight and that wage pressures are not quite ready to post a meaningful drop. ​ ​ The labor market remains robust and that should keep the Fed’s half-point tightening on cruise control until the Jackson Hole Symposium.   Oil Crude prices just want to head higher as energy traders completely fixate over the looming European sanctions on Russian oil. ​ No one wants to be on the wrong side of a major crude supply disruption headline, so whatever oil price dips that happen will be short-lived. ​ US oil rig counts continue to rise, but that has not led to increased production. ​ The weekly Baker Hughes report showed oil rig counts rose by 5 to 557 rigs. ​   Gold Gold prices are still licking their wounds following the bond market selloff. ​ Eventually investors will need additional safe-havens, so gold might start to attract some flows if the dollar softens as the global bond market selloff extends. The dollar is slightly softer today, but that doesn’t mean it is ready to lose its crown. ​ Gold could still remain vulnerable to further downward pressure if inflation does not show further signs of peaking next. ​   Gold is trending right between the 50- and -200 day simple moving averages but still looks like it isn’t quite ready to rally. ​ Next week will be pivotal for inflation expectations and for Fed speak that could confirm their commitment to tightening by half a point per meeting until the Jackson Hole Symposium. ​   Read on Oanda This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
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Oil Market Surprises: Saudi and Russian Supply Cuts Extended

ING Economics ING Economics 06.09.2023 12:16
The Commodities Feed: Saudi and Russian oil cuts The oil market had largely expected the Saudis and Russians to extend supply cuts. What was unexpected was extending these cuts through until year-end.   Energy – Saudi extends cuts The oil market moved higher yesterday, with ICE Brent settling above US$90/bbl for the first time since November. Saudi and Russian supply cuts were the catalyst for the move higher. Saudi Arabia announced that it would extend its voluntary supply cut of 1MMbbls/d until the end of the year. Similarly, Russia said that it would extend its export cut of 300Mbbls/d through to year-end. While it was largely expected that these voluntary cuts would be extended, expectations were for a one-month extension rather than three months. This does leave the market with a deeper than expected deficit over the fourth quarter of 2023, which should continue to support prices. For now, we are reluctant to revise higher our price forecasts on the back of this extension, as demand concerns continue to linger and Iranian supply is rising. Iran is producing close to 3.1MMbbls/d and plans to pump around 3.4MMbbls/d. Meanwhile, our oil balance shows a small surplus in the first quarter of 2024, which should limit prices moving significantly higher. We continue to forecast that Brent will average US$92/bbl over the fourth quarter of this year. Looking further ahead, we would not rule out a further extension of these cuts (fully or partially) into early next year, given that our balance sheet shows that the oil market will be in a small surplus over the first quarter of next year. Any cuts will obviously depend on where oil is trading towards the end of the year and whether demand worries are still present.

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