breakout

BTC/USD BTC/USD has been trading upside as I expected and I found the breakout of the well defined sideways range, which is good sign for the higher prices.   Due to the breakout of the well defined range and the upside trend on the mid and long term cycles, I see potetnial for the higher process after the downside correction.   Upside objectives are set at the price of $29.145 and $29.870 Stochastic oscillator is showing oversold condition and fresh bull cross, which is another sign for the upside movement.   Key support cluster is set at the price of $25.900    

USD/CAD has been trading downside and I found the breakout of the support cluster at the price of 1.3590, which is good sign for the further downside movement.   Due to the breakout of the support cluster and the increasing in the downside movement, I see potential for the further lower prices towards downside references.   Downside objectives are set at 1.3540 and 1.3490 MACD is showing increasing of the downside momentum, which is good sign for the further lower prices.... Key resistance is set at the price of 1.3650  

Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair had made the last swing low at the level of 1.2308 as the market is still under the bearish pressure, but the bulls have managed to retrace 61% of the last wave down and hit the level of 1.2540. The market is trading above the 50 and 100 MA already.   The intraday technical support is located at 1.2517. The momentum is strong and positive on the H4 time frame chart, which supports the bullish short-term outlook for GBP, however the extremely overbought market conditions had been hit, so the pull-back might occur any time soon.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.23581 WR2 - 1.23505 WR1 - 1.23473 Weekly Pivot - 1.23429 WS1 - 1.23397 WS2 - 1.23353 WS3 - 1.23277   Trading Outlook: A Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern on the Weekly time frame chart 100 pips away from the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2778 might indicate the corrective cycle to the upside had been terminated. Any sustained breakout below the technical support at 1.2444 will be the first indication of stronger bearish pressure.

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD The price test of 1.0719, coinciding with the significant rise of the MACD line from zero, limited the upward potential of the pair. Even so, market players continue to buy in anticipation of further interest rate hikes despite inflation in the eurozone starting to slow down. Clearly, market players do not expect any changes in the European Central Bank's monetary policy.     The empty economic calendar today will push traders to focus on upcoming US labor market data, as growth in unemployment and disappointing non-farm payrolls will convince the Fed to continue its tight approach to monetary policy. Only a pause in the rate hike cycle will weaken dollar demand and lead to a further rise in EUR/USD.     For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0780 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0816. Growth could occur. However, when buying, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0754, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0780 and 1.0816.   For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0754 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0722. Pressure may return amid very good labor market statistics in the US. However, when selling, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0780, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0754 and 1.0722.       What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market   Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.  

BTC/USD has been trading downside yesterday and I found exhaustion and breakout of the mini downside channel, which is good sign for the further growth. Due to the rejection of the key support at $26.500 and the exhaustion pattern, I see potential for the further growth towards upside references.   Upisde objectives are set at the price of $27.560 and $28.000 MACD and RSC oscillators are showing bullish divergence, which is another good confirmation for the further upside movement. Key support cluster is set at the price of $26.500  

The EUR/USD pair executed a reversal in favor of the US currency on Friday and began a new decline, closing below the corrective level of 38.2% (1.0726). Thus, the overall decline of the pair may continue toward the next Fibonacci level at 23.6% (1.0652). A rebound from the level of 1.0652 will favor the euro and lead to some growth, while a close below it will increase the likelihood of a further decline toward the level of 1.0609.     On Friday, traders closely followed the US reports. There were many important events throughout the past week, but the labor market and unemployment data always held a special place in the hearts of traders. Without going into much detail, the statistics favored the bears, but the two most important reports showed different trends. The unemployment rate for May increased from 3.4% to 3.7%, although traders expected a rise to 3.5%. Meanwhile, nonfarm payrolls in May showed a result of +339K, exceeding expectations of +180K.   Thus, the unemployment rate turned out worse, but the payrolls were better. Traders concluded that the payroll report was more important (and I fully agree with them), so the dollar rose in price again. The US currency should continue to rise, as all recent statistical data indicates a good state of the American economy. The Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to maintain a "hawkish" position, and even after raising the interest rate to 5.25%, the economy continues to show growth, unemployment remains low, and the labor market creates more jobs almost every month than the market expects. These are compelling reasons for further dollar appreciation, as it has significantly lost value over the past year. On higher charts, there is a corrective potential towards the level of 1.03.     On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the euro, but the growth was short-lived. The quote decline may resume toward the corrective level of 38.2% (1.0610). A rebound of the pair's rate from this level will allow traders to expect a small increase toward the Fibonacci level of 50.0% (1.0941). If the quotes close below the level of 1.0610, the chances of further decline toward the Fibonacci level of 23.6% (1.0201) will increase.   Commitments of Traders (COT) report:   During the last reporting week, speculators closed 8,253 long and 242 short contracts. The sentiment of large traders remains "bullish" but has slightly weakened in recent weeks. The total number of long contracts speculators hold is 242,000, while short contracts amount to only 76,000. For now, strong bullish sentiment persists, but the situation will continue to change soon. The euro has been falling for two consecutive weeks. The high value of open long contracts suggests that buyers may close them soon (or may have already started, as indicated by the last two COT reports). There is currently an excessive tilt towards the bulls. The current figures allow for a continuation of the euro's decline soon.     News calendar for the United States and the European Union: Eurozone - Services Purchasing Managers' Index (08:00 UTC) USA - Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (13:45 UTC)   USA - Industrial Orders Volume (14:00 UTC) USA - ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (14:00 UTC)     On June 5, the economic events calendar includes three entries for the USA and one for the EU. The most important among them is the ISM index. The impact of the news background on traders' sentiment today may be moderate and occur in the second half of the day. Forecast for EUR/USD and trader advice: New pair sales could be opened on a breakout from the level of 1.0785 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.0726 and 1.0652. I advise buying the pair on a breakout from the level of 1.0610 on the 4-hour chart, with targets at 1.0726 and 1.0784.      

EUR/USD: Yesterday, the euro and other currencies started trading lower, while volatility was weak. The main reason for the change in sentiment was the weak PMIs in the US. The May ISM Services PMI came in at 50.3, down from April's 51.9. The final Services PMI reading was lowered from 55.1 to 54.9. Factory orders increased by 0.4% in April, below the expected range of 0.8-1.1%. Industrial orders excluding transportation decreased by 0.2%. Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the June 14th meeting decreased from 25.3% to 21.8%. The S&P 500 stock index declined by 0.20%.       From a technical standpoint, we see the price returning to the range of 1.0692-1.0738, from which unsuccessful breakouts have occurred in both directions over the past week. Take note that the price has not firmly established itself above or below the limits of the range, which complicates the situation since the next breakout could turn out to be false, particularly on the bullish side, as the global trend is bearish.   We acknowledge that resistance at 1.0804 could be tested if there is an upward breakout. The price may even surpass the level with the MACD line acting as a target, which would constitute a deep correction from the decline since May 4th.   Climbing to 1.0804 represents approximately a 38.2% retracement of the downward move since May 4th. However, as long as the price doesn't breach the 1.0738 level, we'll stick to the bearish scenario with 1.0613 as the target.   The Marlin oscillator has already risen enough (removed negative tension) and may now turn into a new downward wave.   On the four-hour chart, the MACD indicator line is gradually flattening out, and the signal line of Marlin is attempting to merge with the neutral zero line.   The trend is neutral and is likely to remain so for another week until the Fed meeting. However, on the 13th, there will be CPI data released, which could further confuse market participants.        

Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has been seen bouncing from the local low made at the level of 1.0675 and so far the high of the bounce was made at the level of 1.0732. The intraday technical resistance is seen at 1.0780, so bulls need to break out above this level in order to continue higher. Any breakout below the level of 1.0675 would sustain the bearish outlook and put the level of 1.0636 for a test (swing low). The weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook for EUR as the bulls are not able to move above the neutral level of fifty on the RSI indicator.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.07335 WR2 - 1.07121 WR1 - 1.06983 Weekly Pivot - 1.06907 WS1 - 1.06769 WS2 - 1.06693 WS3 - 1.06479   Trading Outlook: Since the beginning of October 2022 the EUR/USD is in the corrective cycle to the upside, but the main, long-term trend remains bearish. This corrective cycle might had been terminated at the level of 1.2080 which is 61% Fibonacci retracement level. The EUR had made a new multi-decade low at the level of 0.9538, so as long as the USD is being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue towards the new lows.  

Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has been seen bouncing from the local low made at the level of 1.0675 and so far the high of the bounce was made at the level of 1.0732. The intraday technical resistance is seen at 1.0780, so bulls need to break out above this level in order to continue higher. Any breakout below the level of 1.0675 would sustain the bearish outlook and put the level of 1.0636 for a test (swing low). The weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook for EUR as the bulls are not able to move above the neutral level of fifty on the RSI indicator.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.07335 WR2 - 1.07121 WR1 - 1.06983 Weekly Pivot - 1.06907 WS1 - 1.06769 WS2 - 1.06693 WS3 - 1.06479   Trading Outlook: Since the beginning of October 2022 the EUR/USD is in the corrective cycle to the upside, but the main, long-term trend remains bearish. This corrective cycle might had been terminated at the level of 1.2080 which is 61% Fibonacci retracement level. The EUR had made a new multi-decade low at the level of 0.9538, so as long as the USD is being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue towards the new lows.  

Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on June 13 (analysis of morning deals). The pound climbed above 1.2553. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.2553 and recommended making trading decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. The breakout and subsequent retest from above to below 1.2553 provided a buy signal, resulting in an upward movement of 18 pips. The technical picture has stayed the same for the second half of the day.       To open long positions on GBP/USD, the following conditions are required: As long as trading continues above 1.2553, further growth in GBP/USD can be expected. Buyers will particularly show themselves after news of a decrease in inflation in the US, leading to a surge in the pound to monthly highs of around 1.2596. Having another entry point around 1.2553 would be desirable, so protecting this level remains a priority task for the bulls. A breakout and retest from above to below 1.2596, similar to what I discussed earlier, will provide an additional signal to open long positions, strengthening the presence of bulls with a movement towards 1.2636, reinforcing the upward trend.   The ultimate target will be the area of 1.2674, where I will take profit. In the scenario of a pound decline towards 1.2553 and a lack of activity from buyers, pressure on the pair will return. The persistence of high inflation in the US will also limit the upside potential of the pair. In that case, I will postpone market entry until the support at 1.2516 is reached. I will only open long positions there on a false breakout.   I plan to buy GBP/USD on a rebound from 1.2479, targeting a 30-35 pip correction within the day. To open short positions on GBP/USD, the following conditions are required: Sellers were unable to show anything after the news that the unemployment rate in the UK dropped to a record 3.8%, which puts pressure on the Bank of England to continue raising rates. All hope now lies with strong inflation in the US, which will help defend 1.2596.   I will only open short positions after GBP/USD rises to monthly highs, forming a false breakout. This will allow a downward move towards support at 1.2553, which acted as resistance earlier in the morning. A breakout and retest from below to above this range will restore the chances of a downward correction and provide a signal to open short positions with a decline toward 1.2516. The ultimate target remains the minimum of 1.2479, where I will take profit.   In the case of further growth in GBP/USD and a lack of activity at 1.2596, which seems likely, buyers will continue to dominate. In that case, I will postpone selling until the resistance at 1.2636 is tested. A false breakout there will be an entry point for short positions. I plan to sell GBP/USD on a rebound from the May high of around 1.2674, but only with the expectation of a downward correction of 25-30 pips within the day.     The COT (Commitment of Traders) report for June 6th showed a reduction in both short and long positions. The pound has risen significantly recently. This indicates that many market participants continue to bet on an increase in interest rates by the Bank of England. Recent forecasts and expectations that the UK economy will avoid a recession this year also contribute to the demand for risk assets. We have paused the cycle of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve ahead, which will also support GBP/USD buyers.   The latest COT report states that short non-commercial positions decreased by 4,056 to 52,579, while long non-commercial positions fell by 5,257 to 65,063. This led to a slight decrease in the non-commercial net position to 12,454 from 13,235 the previous week. The weekly price rose to 1.2434 from 1.2398.     Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is conducted above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating further growth in the pair. Note: The author considers the period and prices of the moving averages on the hourly chart (H1), which differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily chart (D1).   Bollinger Bands In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator, around 1.2479, will act as support. Description of Indicators: • Moving Average: Determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart. • Moving Average: Determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 30. Marked in green on the chart. • MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA period 12, Slow EMA period 26, SMA period 9. • Bollinger Bands: Period 20. • Non-commercial traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting specific requirements. • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. • The net non-commercial position is the difference between non-commercial traders' short and long positions.      

The EUR/USD pair has been going through low volatility and volume. The chart above may suggest that the pair moved quite actively, but in reality, there was only a 53-pip range between the day's high and low. Thus, we have witnessed the third consecutive boring and uninteresting day. Yesterday's only notable report was the number of approved construction permits in the United States. The report turned out slightly better than expected, which helped strengthen the dollar to some extent. But what kind of reaction are we talking about?   A mere 20 pips, which is not interesting at all and does not affect the current technical picture. The pair continues to correct sluggishly downward against an empty calendar. Yesterday, one signal was even formed. During the European trading session, the pair rebounded from the level of 1.0943 and then moved down by the aforementioned 50 pips. However, the price could not reach the target level by the end of the day, and no further signals were formed. Therefore, it was advisable to manually close the sell trade anywhere closer to the evening. It was possible to earn around 30 pips from it, which is not bad considering the current volatility. COT report: On Friday, a new COT report for June 6 was released. In the last 9 months, COT reports have fully corresponded to what is happening on the market. The chart above clearly shows that the net position of big traders (the second indicator) began to grow again in September 2022.   At the same time, the euro resumed an upward movement. The net position of non-commercial traders is bullish. The euro is trading at its highs against the US dollar. I have already mentioned that a fairly high value of the "net position" indicates the end of the uptrend. The first indicator also signals such a possibility as the red and green lines are very far from each other. It often occurs before the end of the trend. The euro tried to start falling a few months ago but there was only a pullback. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions of the "Non-commercial" group of traders decreased by 5,700 and the number of short positions rose by 1,500. The number of long positions is higher than the number of short ones. This is a very large gap. The number of long positions is 59,000 higher than short ones.     The difference is more than three times. The correction has begun. Yet, it may not be a correction but the start of a new downtrend. At this time, it is clear that the pair is likely to resume a downward movement without COT reports. 1H chart of EUR/USD In the 1-hour chart, the pair is trying to start an uptrend but there are no drivers for growth. Last week, there were many events that bolstered its rise. However, in the medium term, there are still no reasons to go long. Technical indicators signal an uptrend.   It would be better not to sell the pair now. We need to wait at least for consolidation below the trend line and the target level. On June 21, trading levels are seen at 1.0581, 1.0658-1.0669, 1.0762, 1.0806, 1.0868, 1.0943, 1.1092, 1.1137, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.0766) and the Kijun-sen line (1.0889) lines. Ichimoku indicator lines can move intraday, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance although no signals are made near these levels.   Signals could be made when the price either breaks or bounces from these extreme levels. Do not forget to place Stop Loss at the breakeven point when the price goes by 15 pips in the right direction. In case of a false breakout, it could save you from possible losses. Several ECB and Fed officials are scheduled to deliver speeches today. However, traders are likely to ignore their statements. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver an important speech in Congress. The main focus is on that.  

Gold threatening to break lower as UK inflation spikes again Gold prices came under some pressure on Tuesday, taking the prices back to the lower end of its recent range and even threatening to break below in what could have been a bearish development for the yellow metal. Gold has broadly traded between $1,940-$1,980 over the last month, very briefly moving outside of this range on a few occasions and the lower boundary is being tested once again this morning. It actually fell below $1,930 yesterday and nearly did the same again this morning so traders will be on high alert for a more substantial breakout to the downside. Higher yields could be the catalyst for that depending on how traders more broadly respond to this morning’s disappointing UK inflation data. Is it a sign of a deeper problem in the global fight against inflation or just UK-specific? The dip after the release suggests the concerns around the former.  

Gold has been trading downside as I expected and I found re-break of the symmetrical triangle pattern in the background, which is good sign for the further downside movement. Due to the breakout of the upside channel and tight triangle in the background, I see potential for the further drop towards lower references. Downside objectives are set at the price of $1.861 and $1.819 MACD oscillator is showing increasing in the downside momentum, which is good confirmation for the further downside movement. Key resistance is set at the price of $1.967  

USD/JPY has been trading upside this morning and I see potential for the further rally today due to the breakout of the downside channel. Due to the breakout of the downside channel and the bullish trend on the short and mid term horizon, I see potential for the further growth towards upper references.   Upside objective is set at the price of 142.35 MACD oscillator is showing increasing in the upside momentum, which is good confirmation for the further upside movement. Intraday support is set at the price of 141.65  

Current impulsive up move of CHF/JPY has cleared above major resistances of 157.98 & 158.45. Short-term momentum remains bullish. 159.90 is the key short-term support to watch.   The CHF/JPY cross has continued to its relentless rally as it broke above key resistance levels; 157.98 (the high obtained right during the EUR/CHF unpegged shock in January 2015) and 158.45 (Oct 1979 major swing high).   Broke above Oct 1979 major swing high of 158.45     Fig 1: CHF/JPY long-term secular trend as of 27 Jun 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The next key medium-tern resistance zone stands at 163.20/166.70 defined by a cluster of Fibonacci extension levels (see 3-month chart). The key medium-term support rests at 146.60 defined by the 200-day moving average and the former swing highs of July/October 2022.   The short-term uptrend remains intact     Fig 2: CHF/JPY minor short-term trend as of 27 Jun 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The price actions of CHF/JPY have continued to evolve within a minor ascending channel in place since the 13 June 2023 low of 153.37 and traded above the upward-sloping 5-day moving average (see 1-hour chart). The hourly RSI has just staged a bullish breakout which indicates that short-term momentum remains positive. Watch the 159.90 key short-term pivotal support with the next resistances coming in at 162.00 (psychological level) and 163.20 (the intersection between the upper boundaries of both the medium-term and minor ascending channels). However, a break below 159.90 negates the bullish tone to expose the next minor supports at 158.70 and 157.20.

Litecoin ended its sell-off and now is trading at 84.27 far above yesterday's low of 81.77. Bitcoin's current growth helped the altcoin to rebound as well. It has increased by 3.23% from yesterday's low to 84.41 today's high. Despite the current rebound, LTC/USD is still down by 1.86% in the last 24 hours and by 3.19% in the last 7 days. The buyers are still in the game but a larger growth is still far from being confirmed. LTC/USD Uptrend Intact!   As you can see on the H4 chart, the rate dropped within a down channel. This could represent a bullish formation. The altcoin turned to the upside again after retesting the uptrend line. The false breakdowns announced that the sell-off could be over. The weekly pivot point of 85.93 and the downtrend line represent upside obstacles and immediate targets.   LTC/USD Outlook! A valid breakout above the downtrend line may announce a larger growth and is seen as a buying opportunity.    

Yesterday, the euro showed a range of 60 points, closing the day at the opening level. The upper shadow tested the 1.0930 level, and this morning the price is headed towards this mark again, not giving up hope of reaching the upper band of the green descending price channel around 1.0990.       This is possible if the euro follows the stock market and employment data turn out worse than expected. For now, the price needs to consolidate above 1.0930.   Surpassing yesterday's low at 1.0871 will be a signal for a decline. On the 4-hour chart, the price could not consolidate below the balance indicator line and returned to the 1.0910/30 range. Here, it can linger for a while and try to overcome the MACD line around 1.0952.   The Marlin oscillator in the positive area is ready to join the growth at any moment.     Given that we accept the bearish scenario for the euro as the main plan, the price may not overcome the MACD line and return below the range. Like yesterday, uncertainty persists in the short-term perspective.    

GBP/USD Yesterday, volatility was weak, however, the price has consolidated above the target level of 1.2678 on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator is trying to rise in the positive area, now the price can reach the target level of 1.2785.     If the pound needs to develop a decline, it should consolidate below yesterday's low, then there will be an opportunity to work out fairly strong levels like 1.2600, 1.2572.   On the 4-hour chart, the price is consolidating above the 1.2678 level, above the balance indicator line. The Marlin oscillator is moving sideways in the uptrend territory. Rising signs prevail. If the price fails to reach 1.2785, a breakout of the MACD line around the 1.2745 mark will still be a good attempt to do so.    

EUR/USD chart shows a bearish trend with potential for further downward movement towards the 1st support at 1.0847. The 2nd support at 1.0789 aligns with Fibonacci confluence. Resistance levels at 1.0911 and 1.0995 act as overlaps, supported by Fibonacci confluence. A symmetrical triangle pattern suggests consolidation, with a breakout indicating bullish or bearish direction.  

The GBP/USD pair has been rejected from the intraday technical resistance located at 1.2726 and in the short-term the bulls are under pressure. The pair has broken out from the narrow zone located between the levels of 1.2660 - 1.2726 and is currently approaching the 61% Fibonacci retracement level located at 1.2750.   The immediate technical support is seen at the level of 1.2659 (100 MA), but the key technical support is seen at 1.2590. Please notice, the momentum is hovering around the level of fifty, so there is a confirmation of the bearish pressure on the lower time frame charts. Only a sustained breakout above the technical resistance would change the outlook to more bullish.    

The EUR/USD pair has been rejected from the 50 and 100 MA located at 1.0886 and in the short-term the bulls are under pressure. Currently, the volatility on the market was subdued and the market participants await the fundamental trigger to increase the market movement.   The immediate technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.0883 (100 MA), but the key technical support is seen at 1.0836. Please notice, the momentum is back under the level of fifty, so there is a confirmation of the bearish pressure on the lower time frame charts. Only a sustained breakout above the moving average dynamic resistance would change the outlook to more bullish. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.09868 WR2 - 1.09389 WR1 - 1.09120 Weekly Pivot - 1.08910 WS1 - 1.08641 WS2 - 1.08431 WS3 - 1.07952   Trading Outlook: Since the beginning of October 2022 the EUR/USD is in the corrective cycle to the upside, but the main, long-term trend remains bearish. This corrective cycle might had been terminated at the level of 1.2080 which is 61% Fibonacci retracement level. The EUR had made a new multi-decade low at the level of 0.9538, so as long as the USD is being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue towards the new lows. Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/329986      

EUR/USD Euro dollar bears have been increasing their exposure to options, with some eyeing some protection to euro weakness in Q3.  Last week, the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation saw strongest demand in over two months, with put volumes gaining more attention with a 3:2 margin. The euro-dollar has been triangulating and appears poised for a breakout soon.   Potential trigger: Everyone has their eye on the NFP report, but next week’s CPI report could be more impactful.  Wall Street might become more confident after the July 12th inflation report that the Fed will be done after delivering one more rate hike.  

Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has broken above the short-term trend line resistance and is trading around the level of 1.0954 at the beginning of the new trading week. The intraday technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.0974, at the local high. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of 1.0935. Please notice, the momentum has hit the extremely overbought conditions again, so there is a confirmation of the bearish pressure on the lower time frame charts. In a case of a breakout lower, the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.0901 and 1.0876. Only a sustained breakout below the moving average dynamic support around 1.0900 would change the outlook to more negative.    

Oil continues higher despite setbacks this week Could we finally be about to see a breakout in oil prices after two months of consolidation? The rally over the last week or so from the range lows has been quite strong and backed by momentum – as well as fresh cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia – and despite being pushed back from the recent highs over the last couple of days, it’s continued to drive higher in a way that could see the upper boundary buckle. Yesterday’s ADP number appeared to wipe out any momentum that had built up but a rally late in the day saw it end the session in the green and come within a whisker of 21 June peak. A failure to overcome that could further confirm the continuation of the gradual consolidation we’ve seen over the last couple of months, whereas a break above could be a very bullish signal.   Can gold hold onto $1,900 after the US jobs report? Gold came under pressure in the aftermath of yesterday’s ADP report but managed to hold above $1,900 and even recoup some of its losses. It’s trading marginally higher today but whether it will be able to hold onto those gains, and remain above $1,900, will probably depend on what kind of jobs report we get. Can it cling on if we get another red-hot report? Another strong report is looking increasingly likely on the back of yesterday’s ADP number, although as we’ve seen in the past it isn’t always that reliable a barometer. A cooler report could propel it higher given expectations have now undoubtedly risen. It’s still almost 8% from its highs and a cooler report could offer the opportunity for a corrective move which we’ve barely seen so far.  

The Commodities Feed: Key US CPI release The oil market rallied more than 2% yesterday, leaving it at the top end of its recent trading range. US CPI data later today will be key for price direction in the immediate term.   Energy: Oil looking to breakout Oil prices pushed higher yesterday with ICE Brent trading to its highest level since early May and leaving it within striking distance of US$80/bbl. A break above US$80/bbl would see the market finally breaking out of the US$70-80/bbl range that it has been stuck in for more than two months. The market appears to be finally starting to reflect the tighter fundamentals that we see over the second half of 2023. Obviously, additional cuts announced by Saudi Arabia last week will be helping, while hopes of support measures for China’s economy will be offering some further optimism. However, macro developments are still likely to be key for the market in the near term. And today there will be plenty of focus on US CPI numbers. Expectations are for a print of 3.1% year-on-year for June, down from 4% in the previous month. We will need to see the number come in well below consensus to see any significant change to current expectations for the Federal Reserve to hike at its next meeting. API numbers released overnight were more bearish than expected, with US crude oil inventories increasing by 3MMbbls, while gasoline and distillate stocks also increased by 1MMbbls and 2.91MMbbls, respectively. The market had been expecting some small draws across crude and products. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today, but obviously, it is likely to be overshadowed by the US CPI release. Bloomberg ship tracking data shows that Russian seaborne crude oil exports fell by a little more than 1MMbbls/d WoW to 2.86MMbbls/d for the week ending 9 July. This also drags the four-week rolling average down to a little over 3.2MMbbls/d, which is the lowest level seen since January. The market will be watching Russian exports closely, as up until now there have been doubts over whether Russia is actually making the full supply cuts it announced earlier in the year. Yesterday, the EIA released its latest Short Term Energy Outlook, in which it forecasts 2023 US crude oil production to grow by 680Mbbls/d YoY to average a record 12.56MMbbls/d. Meanwhile, for 2024, supply growth is expected to slow to a little over 280Mbbls/d YoY, which would see output averaging 12.85MMbbls/d. This ties in with the slowdown in drilling activity that we have seen for much of this year. The number of active oil rigs in the US has fallen from a year-to-date high of 623 in January to 540 last week.

Short-term momentum is likely to have turned negative as seen in the hourly RSI. Key short-term resistance stands at 0.6720. Intermediate supports to watch will be at 0.6630 and 0.6600/6580. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “AUD/USD Technical: Positive momentum ahead of RBA” published on 4 July 2023. Click here for a recap. The price actions of the AUD/USD have staged the expected push-up and met the first resistance of 0.6720 as it printed a current intraday high of 0.6742 in today, 12 July Asian session. Short-term elements are suggesting the risk of a short-term retreat as the release of the US CPI data looms later today at 1230 GMT.   Reintegrated below 20 and 200-day moving averages Fig 1: AUD/USD medium-term trend as of 12 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The recent one and half week of rebound of +145 pips seen on the AUD/USD from its minor swing low of 29 June 2023 has stalled at the key 20 and 200-day moving averages which confluences with the 27 June 2023 swing high and the 38.2 % Fibonacci retracement of the prior minor decline from 16 June 2023 high of 0.6900 to 29 June 2023 low as well as the 1.236 Fibonacci extension of the rebound from 29 June 2023 low to 4 July 2023 high projected from 6 July 2023 low.     Short-term momentum has turned negative   Fig 2: AUD/USD minor short-term trend as of 12 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The hourly RSI oscillator has just exited its overbought region (above the 70 level) today and right now, it is attempting to break below its parallel ascending support at the 49 level which suggests that short-term momentum is likely to have turned negative. Watch the 0.6720 key short-term pivotal resistance to maintain a bearish tone; a break below 0.6630 exposes the next support at 0.6600/6580. However, a clearance above 0.6720 negates the short-term bearish tone to see the next resistance at 0.6790 (also, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior minor decline from 16 June 2023 high of 0.6900 to 29 June 2023 low).  

FX Daily: Dollar drops on the disinflation trade The downside surprise in US June CPI inflation has seen the dollar drop to new lows for the year. Over recent months we had been speculating that clear signs of US disinflation - and a weaker dollar - may emerge in 3Q23 and yesterday's moves could well be the start of an important market adjustment. Look out for US PPI and US initial claims today.   USD: The start of something It has been a long time coming, but yesterday's surprisingly soft US June CPI numbers may be the first sign this year that sharp Fed rate hikes are finally starting to bite. As our US economist, James Knightley, notes, there were welcome declines in all of the key categories of inflation. He does not think this will prevent another 25bp Fed rate hike at the 26 July meeting, but it will add weight to the view that the July hike may indeed be the last in the cycle. The data could also herald a change in the Fed narrative from frustration that inflation has not fallen as quickly as expected to a more welcoming approach to recent data releases.  We had discussed the potential FX market impact of a soft US CPI print in yesterday's FX Daily and the soft CPI has driven more benign pricing around the world - i.e. bullish steepening of yield curves, higher equities, narrower credit spreads, and a weaker dollar. FX price action has all the hallmarks of a position unwind, where those currencies sold on a bearish/hard landing scenario (e.g. Norway's krone, Sweden's krona, and to a lesser degree some other commodity currencies) have now made a very strong comeback. Indeed, both the NOK and SEK had been extremely undervalued in our medium-term valuation models and are now finding room to breathe. For the big dollar trend, this may be the start of the long-awaited cyclical decline. There are parallels to the dollar sell-off last November and December (when it fell 8% in two months), but the difference now is; i) positioning, where speculators are not as heavily long dollars as they were last October, and ii) the China and European growth stories do not seem due as much of a re-rating as they enjoyed last November. That said, we prefer to run with the dollar bearish story for the time being, where DXY should press big psychological support at 100.00. The next target would be 99.00 on a breakout. For today, look out for US June PPI and the weekly initial claims number. A further decline in PPI and a rise in claims could see dollar losses extend.

Recent range highs broken after CPI release Lower inflation could increase gold’s appeal One more rate hike expected from the Fed   The US inflation data gave gold just the boost it needed to break back above $1,940 after failing to pierce that level in recent days. The yellow metal has been range-bound in recent weeks between $1,900 and $1,940 and today’s report did what the jobs data failed to do; it provided the catalyst for a breakout.     There remains plenty of resistance ahead for gold and today’s move doesn’t necessarily suggest the correction we’ve seen since May is over but it’s a massive step in the right direction. If the inflation data continues to improve then that could be bullish for gold. The next tests for gold are $1,940, $1,960, and $2,000, which roughly represent the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels from the May high to the June lows. The inflation data may have come too late to change the outcome of the July Fed meeting, especially in light of the June jobs report, but it may alter the central bank’s language if it does hike by another 25 basis points. It’s going to be a big summer of data.    

The prospect of a soft landing lifts oil prices Rally builds on efforts by Russia and Saudi Arabia to boost prices A break of $80 could be another big step Oil prices have been understandably lifted by the US inflation release today as it could be seen to increase the possibility of a soft landing. Brent was already trending higher though and is now at its highest point since April, having already broken out of the range it traded within for the last couple of months. ​ The next level for Brent to overcome is $80, which would be a big psychological leap. That may also see WTI break above its June high following the spike on the 5th. The move higher also suggests the latest efforts of Saudi Arabia and Russia are working in tightening the markets and boosting prices after multiple failed efforts.   A bullish breakout in Brent? Not only would a significant break of $80 be a big psychological move, but it would also come on the back of a break above the 55/89-day simple moving average band and the descending channel it traded mostly within over the last couple of years.     The next major resistance zone above here could come around $83-$84.50 where the price could come into contact with the 200/233-day SMA band. As far as support is concerned, the mid-May and June highs around $78.70-$78.80 could be interesting, as could the 55/89-day SMA band which coincides roughly with the peak a few weeks ago. A rebound off either of these could be viewed as bullish confirmation of the initial breakout.    

Output cuts and inflation data continue to boost crude prices Temporary disruptions could add to the bullishness Potential resistance around $83-$84   Oil is trading relatively flat today but has made tremendous gains over the last couple of weeks and could still add to that over the coming sessions. The price has risen more than 13% from the lows on 28 June and, despite appearing to struggle at times yesterday, still has plenty of momentum. The break above $80 was very significant after multiple efforts by Saudi Arabia and its allies to manipulate the price to more sustainable levels, from their perspective. Temporary output disruptions, like those currently in Libya and Nigeria, could further lift prices in the short term as potential tightness in the market on the back of cuts and economic resilience boost demand.   Key Resistance Lies Ahead Brent could face an interesting test around $83-$84 if it keeps rallying, with the boost from US inflation data and Saudi/Russian cuts potentially giving it an additional boost, as well as the psychological lift from this week’s breakout. Brent Crude Daily     The 200/233-day simple moving average has been a key zone of support and resistance previously and could prove to be so again. It hasn’t traded above here in more than a year so a break above would be significant. A move lower could draw attention back to $80 and whether we’ll get that confirmation of the initial breakout. A move below here wouldn’t necessarily be a particularly bearish move, with the 55/89-day SMA band around $76-$78 arguably more important, falling around the upper end of the descending channel. It could also fall around a key fib level depending where the price peaks first.   

Has the US turned a corner on inflation? Earnings may determine whether rally can be sustained Dow testing major resistance level   It’s shaping up to be quite a relaxed end to the week, one in which we’ve seen stellar gains on the back of some very encouraging inflation data from the US. While there have been occasions when stock markets have performed well this year despite not appearing to reflect the fundamental reality of rapid economy-threatening rate hikes, the inability to really turn a corner on inflation has held them back. But perhaps that corner is now being turned. Inflation was already well off its highs but there was something about this report that was different. Not only did it beat on the headline and core level but both of the monthly readings were also incredibly positive. Now it’s just a question of whether that can be sustained. The light at the end of the tightening tunnel is getting brighter and investors are increasingly confident of emerging after one more hike in two weeks. At which point the focus will turn to the economy and whether a soft landing can still be achieved before the discussion pivots to rate cuts. The next risk comes from earnings season which gets underway today, with JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup all reporting on the second quarter.   Can the Dow break a more than one-year resistance level? The Dow is back trading around its highest levels in more than a year on the back of this week’s strong performance. It’s tested these levels a couple of times over the last month and many more over the last year, each time being pushed back, but could this time be different?   US30 Daily   The fundamentals look more attractive which could be enough to give it that extra bump. But I’m not convinced by the momentum indicators, on this chart being the stochastic and MACD. They look a little underwhelming and the same is true on the 4-hour chart. That’s certainly not definitive and a breakout could provide that momentum that there doesn’t appear to currently be but they aren’t particularly supportive at this point. As far as further resistance above is concerned, 35,000 stands out as the next test, with 36,000 above that then key. We could see some resistance around 35,500 as well as price has responded to it in the past  

Stalling at $1,960 Key fib levels remain a big test   Gold is also trading marginally higher today and struggling around a notable resistance level, $1,960. It broke through $1,940 yesterday on the back of the inflation numbers and has now entered retracement territory where a few key levels will be put to the test. From a technical standpoint, those are the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels – May highs to June lows – which happen to fall around $1,960, $1,980, and $2,000, respectively.     A break of these may indicate that gold is back in bullish territory, although the price may face some resistance in the interim. A look at the 4-hour chart supports the more bullish view in gold but there is scope for corrective moves along the way. We’ve seen some consolidation since breaking $1,940 – which also saw the price break above the 200/233-period simple moving average band. Price has been quite responsive to this in the past. If the price does pull back a little, it will be interesting to see whether it tests $1,940 from above, with a rotation off here viewed to be confirmation of the initial breakout and a bullish signal. Especially with it coinciding with that SMA band.   Gold 4-Hour    

  US inflation data takes Brent above $80 Chinese trade data disappoints again Momentum appearing to wane Oil prices are a little higher again in early trade, seemingly still buoyed by yesterday’s US inflation report, and are continuing to push for a convincing break above $80 in Brent crude. It is trading a little above $80 this morning and did at times yesterday, but rather than generating fresh momentum, it seems to instead be running into some difficulty. That would be understandable. After all, it’s rallied around 12% in two weeks, primarily on the back of the extension to the Saudi one million barrel cut to the end of August, alongside Russia’s 500,000 barrel export reduction. Some profit-taking at these levels wouldn’t be hugely surprising and may have come sooner if not for the US CPI data. What’s more, trade data from China overnight wasn’t exactly inspiring which may have dampened the rally a little. Chinese imports and exports slumped at a faster pace than expected in June in another sign of weakening global trade. We’ve seen this trend all year and clearly, conditions are not improving, quite the opposite. This will maintain pressure on the economy with domestic demand also disappointing, as seen by the weaker import numbers. Targeted stimulus may be needed sooner rather than later or the country’s once seemingly modest 5% growth target may be at risk of being missed. The breakout in Brent crude above the descending channel and above the 55/89-day simple moving average band was quite strong and it appeared to be building some momentum but there are signs that this is slipping today. The daily candle itself isn’t complete so I’m hesitant to comment on it but a close around where it currently lies is in theory bearish, being a shooting star candle.   Brent Crude Daily     The stochastic and MACD look ok at the moment on the daily chart, there aren’t any real red flags as far as they’re concerned. That’s less the case on the 4-hour and even the 1-hour charts which may point to a potentially corrective move in the short-term.   Brent Crude 4-Hour   Brent Crude 1-Hour   Either way, longer term this looks like a very bullish move. Breaking out of a two-month range on the back of supply cuts, weaker inflation readings, and the potential for softer landings for the economy. The China data is a concern but some stimulus could change people’s views on that front.        

Output cuts and inflation data continue to boost crude prices Temporary disruptions could add to the bullishness Potential resistance around $83-$84   Oil is trading relatively flat today but has made tremendous gains over the last couple of weeks and could still add to that over the coming sessions. The price has risen more than 13% from the lows on 28 June and, despite appearing to struggle at times yesterday, still has plenty of momentum. The break above $80 was very significant after multiple efforts by Saudi Arabia and its allies to manipulate the price to more sustainable levels, from their perspective. Temporary output disruptions, like those currently in Libya and Nigeria, could further lift prices in the short term as potential tightness in the market on the back of cuts and economic resilience boost demand.   Key Resistance Lies Ahead Brent could face an interesting test around $83-$84 if it keeps rallying, with the boost from US inflation data and Saudi/Russian cuts potentially giving it an additional boost, as well as the psychological lift from this week’s breakout.     The 200/233-day simple moving average has been a key zone of support and resistance previously and could prove to be so again. It hasn’t traded above here in more than a year so a break above would be significant. A move lower could draw attention back to $80 and whether we’ll get that confirmation of the initial breakout. A move below here wouldn’t necessarily be a particularly bearish move, with the 55/89-day SMA band around $76-$78 arguably more important, falling around the upper end of the descending channel. It could also fall around a key fib level depending where the price peaks first.       

Gold pares gains after post-inflation bounce US yields remain lower, pulling the dollar down with them Resistance levels remain above at key Fibonacci levels Gold has rotated lower over the last couple of days after previously recovering on the back of encouraging US inflation data. The decline in US yields that we’ve seen since the release has weighed heavily on the US dollar and given the yellow metal a real boost after having endured a pretty torrid May and June.   Is the recovery sustainable? The rotation occurred around $1,960 which was the first notable test of resistance after breaking above $1,940 earlier in the week.   XAUUSD Daily   It falls around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level – May highs to June lows – and now the focus will be on whether that prior resistance level – $1,940 – turns into support. Confirmation of the breakout – which may come from the price now finding support at $1,940 as it was previously resistance – could be bullish although there remains plenty of resistance ahead. If the price does trend higher from here, the next tests of resistance could come around $1,980 and $2,000 which are the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the above move, respectively. The latter is also a major psychological level.  

Rate cut not coming yet from PBOC FTSE 100 nearing some key levels   It’s been a disappointing start to the week in Europe but I’m not sure investors will be too downbeat as a result given the strong gains recorded over the last five sessions. The Chinese data didn’t help kick things off in a more positive manner, with GDP figures for the second quarter falling well short of expectations as retail sales also decelerated sharply, recording their lowest increase since late last year. Of course, the data remains noisy due to varying base effects but the overall theme is clear, domestic demand is underwhelming and external demand isn’t inspiring either. Stimulus is likely going to be needed in the second half of the year backed up by some monetary support but we may have to wait a little longer for that to be announced. The MLF was left unchanged today at 2.65% which means the same will probably be true of the one and five-year LPRs later in the week. A cut could have helped offset some of the data disappointment although, in the absence of targeted fiscal measures, it may have ultimately been akin to pushing on a piece of string so waiting probably makes more sense.   Is a significant breakout coming? The small declines in the FTSE at the start of the week come on the back of Friday’s reversal which produced a shooting star candlestick around the two lows from last month. Whether that is a bearish signal, a confirmation of sorts, or simply a sign of some profit-taking isn’t yet clear. But it clearly hasn’t built on that negative momentum today.     If it does turn higher again then the area around 7,550 could be interesting from the perspective of it being roughly the high from earlier this month and the area of the 200/233-day simple moving average band. It’s worth noting that these MA bands haven’t been great as areas of support and resistance over the last year or so, which is normal when the price is ultimately trending sideways, but if we do eventually see it trend higher or lower, it may react to them more. Below, the rising trend line – from March 2020 lows – could be interesting as the price appeared to respond to it last week. A break below here may be significant, especially if followed by a move below 7,200. Ultimately, a lot of this could depend on the economic data, the most notable of which this week comes Wednesday in the form of the UK CPI data.  

Oil Crude prices are tentatively breaking out as expectations remain for the oil market to remain tight despite all global weakness that is emerging.  The rally in crude oil is impressive as it occurs as Europe is looking very weak right now, the US is slowing down, and China’s Politburo isn’t expected to unveil major stimulus this week. Oil is also getting a boost from Wall Street as optimism grows the end of the Fed’s rate hiking campaign appears it could be here.  With Europe lagging by a couple months, we could start seeing all the major economies eyeing easing as the next move. Market positioning probably has the oil trade look a lot more attractive than US stocks, so if bullish momentum takes WTI crude to $80, it could have decent momentum behind that move.  

FX Daily: Dollar to stay supported into the Fed Fed day has arrived. A 25bp hike is widely expected and it looks far too early for the central bank to soften up its FOMC statement by embracing recent disinflationary trends. This should see the dollar holding onto some of its modest gains made over the last week. Elsewhere, the EM and commodity complex will want to be fed more news on China stimulus.   USD: Dollar to hold gains A look at FX performance over the last five trading sessions provides a good insight into the market's mindset and echoes the themes we highlighted yesterday of European pessimism and Chinese optimism. In the G10 space, the dollar has been the strongest currency but able to withstand that modest dollar strength the best has been the commodity complex of the Australian and Canadian dollars, plus the Norwegian krone. Underperforming has been the euro, with EUR/USD down 1.3% over the week. Indeed, we have seen independent euro weakness on the back of the soft PMI data and European Central Bank (ECB) lending survey. In the EM space, a similar story is playing out. Outperforming is the renminbi and its two most correlated currencies in the EM space, the South African rand and the Brazilian real. Underperforming on the back of the weak European story are the Hungarian forint and the Czech koruna. Also underperforming is the Chilean peso, where the central bank has recently announced a programme to replenish sorely depleted FX reserves. Important drivers of the FX story near term will therefore be whether the Federal Reserve stays hawkish, whether the ECB stays hawkish in the face of softening data and whether Chinese authorities follow through with detailed and sufficiently powerful stimulus to see the commodity currencies hold onto recent gains. Regarding the Fed, we think it is too early to remove key language from its statement that further tightening may be appropriate after today's 25bp hike. And we wonder whether it wants to push back against the 100bp of easing priced in for 2024. We see the Fed event risk as a mildly positive one for the dollar. DXY to trade 101.00-101.50 into the Fed, with risks of a breakout to 102.00 today.

Medium-term uptrend of Gold (XAU/USD) remains intact. Its recent slide of -1.7% from the 20 July 2023 high of US$1,987.53 has pull-backed close to its 50-day moving average. Short-term elements suggest a potential bullish reversal for Gold (XAU/USD) with key support at US$1,939. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Resilient gold is supported by geopolitical risk” published on 11 July 2023. Click here for a recap. Gold (XAU/USD) has staged the bullish breakout above US$1,940 and rallied to an intraday high of US$1,987.53 on 20 July 2023, just a whisker away from the US$1,990 resistance (former congestion support zone from 10 April 2023 to 16 May 2023).   The medium-term uptrend remains intact   Fig 1: Gold (XAU/USD) medium-term trend of 25 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Despite the recent slide of -1.7% from the 20 July 2023 high to print an intraday low of US$1,953.28, the medium-term uptrend phase of Gold (XAU/USD) in place since the 3 November 2022 low of US$1,616 remains intact as it price actions held right above the 50-day moving average at this time of the writing.

Fed and ECB will have a big role to play in EURUSD moves over the next 24 hours Will both offer a final dovish hike and emphasize data dependency? EURUSD faces a big test around 1.10 after breaking out earlier this month EURUSD is trading a little choppy over the last couple of days with traders clearly heavily focused on the outcome of the Fed and ECB meetings. In both cases, a 25 basis point rate hike is heavily backed in the markets, but at the same time, the language that accompanies the decision and what comes next is less obvious. I think there’s every chance that in both cases, policymakers opt to accept that a pause at the next meeting may be appropriate while in no way closing the door on further hikes in the months ahead. In other words, data dependency will be heavily emphasized with the overall tone perhaps being a dovish hike with a slight hawkish twist. The last thing policymakers want is for investors to perceive this to be the end of the tightening process but that will be a very tough message to get across, particularly in the absence of fresh forecasts. The economic data has undoubtedly improved as far as inflation prospects are concerned while the economy is clearly weakening, furthering the case for a pause in September. Both of these factors will likely be emphasized when signaling that further hikes will depend on the data.   The pair has pulled back over the last week or so after finally breaking above 1.10 earlier this month. EURUSD Daily   Source – OANDA on Trading View A weaker dollar has stemmed from data in the US becoming more Fed-friendly – weaker inflation, softer economy – but this week the ECB will be equally as influential in determining whether the pair stays above 1.10 or slips back below. Of course, the Fed is up first so it will set the tone to begin with. A hawkish Fed could strengthen the dollar and put pressure on support around 1.10, the lower bound of the range – 1.10-1.11 – that provided so much resistance over the course of 2023. Anything deemed dovish could see the pair rally once more, in effect confirming the breakout earlier this month and potentially putting pressure on last week’s highs, maybe even beyond.  

EUR/USD Euro failed to approach the target range of 1.1068/92 yesterday, in part due to the large distance to cover and the technical resistance on lower timeframes. Key economic reports also came out rather weak, with Germany's retail sales for June showing a decrease of 0.8%. Meanwhile, the Chicago Business Activity Index for July increased from 41.5 to 42.8, collectively offsetting the eurozone's GDP growth for the 2nd quarter by 0.6% y/y (0.30% q/q).     The political factor also intervened, as China decided to reduce the export of unmanned aerial vehicles to the US, citing national security reasons. Furthermore, the forecasts for key economic indicators in the US came out optimistic. Currently, the price approaches the target level of 1.0924, along which the MACD line also converges. There may be a breakout around the speculative buying range of July 6-7, or a correction from the entire decline since July 18.   On the four-hour timeframe, the balance indicator line capped yesterday's growth, pushing the price below 1.1012. The Marlin oscillator also fell under zero, showing a downward trend.    

Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has bounced from the technical support located at the level of 1.2620 for the third time, so this level had been established as very important support level.   The recent momentum breakout into the positive territory on the H4 time frame chart supports the short-term bullish outlook for GBP, however, current momentum is neutral again. Only a strong reversal and a breakout above the local supply zone would change the short-term bearish outlook. Reversal confirmation comes with the level of 1.2826 breakout (100 DMA level).     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.27925 WR2 - 1.27651 WR1 - 1.27528 Weekly Pivot - 1.27377 WS1 - 1.27254 WS2 - 1.27103 WS3 - 1.26829   Trading Outlook: The bulls keep continuing the up trend towards the key technical resistance located at the level of 1.3163 and a breakout above this level is needed to extend the up trend towards the last Weekly swing high seen at 1.4248. Only a sustained breakout blow the technical support seen at the level of 1.1775 would change the outlook to bearish.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/336146

Yesterday, the pair formed several good signals to enter the market. Let's analyze what happened on the 5-minute chart. In my morning review, I mentioned the level of 1.0870 as a possible entry point. Growth and false breakout of this level generated a sell signal, and the pair fell by more than 60 pips. During the US session, safeguarding the support level at 1.0808 and weak US data produced a buy signal. As a result, EUR/USD managed to compensate for all morning losses and rose by more than 50 pips.   For long positions on EUR/USD: Softer-than-expected preliminary US PMI data exerted downward pressure on the dollar and the euro strengthened in the second half of the day. Obviously, there's a lot of market manipulation, making the situation increasingly tense before the Jackson Hole symposium. Yesterday's data made it clear: if the Federal Reserve continues its tight policy stance, the economic situation will only worsen. This has further confused market participants, who were expecting hawkish statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In the absence of EU reports in the first half of the day, I expect EUR/USD to trade within the channel. Therefore, it is advisable to trade on a dip following a false breakout near the low of 1.0849, which is in line with the bullish moving averages. An immediate resistance target is set at 1.0889, formed on Tuesday.   A breakout and a downward test of this range will strengthen demand for the euro, suggesting a bullish correction around 1.0928. The ultimate target is found at 1.0958, where I will be locking in profits. If EUR/USD declines and bulls are idle at 1.0849, the bear market will persist. Only a false breakout around the next support at 1.0827 will signal to buy the euro. I will initiate long positions immediately on a rebound from the low of 1.0804, aiming for an upward correction of 30-35 pips within the day.   For short positions on EUR/USD: The sellers lost all their advantage yesterday and now they need to start from the beginning. Today, to maintain the bearish momentum, sellers will have to assert their strength at the new resistance of 1.0889. The pair may test this level soon. The absence of economic reports will help the bears with a false breakout of this level and will lead to another descent towards the 1.0849 support. However, only a breakout below this range, followed by an upward retest, will generate another sell signal, paving the way to the low of 1.0827, where I expect big buyers to emerge in hopes of building the lower band of the new ascending channel. The ultimate target is seen at 1.0804, where I will be locking in profits. If EUR/USD moves upward during the European session and lacks bearish activity at 1.0889, the bulls may try to re-enter the market. In such a scenario, I would go short only when the price tests the new resistance at 1.0928 that was formed yesterday. Selling at this point is possible only after a failed consolidation. I will initiate short positions immediately on a rebound from the high of 1.0958, considering a downward correction of 30-35 pips within the day.     COT report: The COT (Commitment of Traders) report for August 15 shows a notable increase in long positions and a drop in short positions. These figures already factor in the crucial US inflation data, which brought back some buyers to the market. The Federal Reserve meeting minutes released last week also indicated that not all committee members are aligned with the idea of raising interest rates to combat inflation. This keeps the chances of the euro's recovery alive, especially following the Jackson Hole symposium happening later this week where Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak. His address might shed light on the central bank's future policy direction. It is important to note that the recent decline in the euro seems to be appealing to traders. The optimal medium-term strategy under current conditions remains buying risk assets on a dip. The COT report highlights that non-commercial long positions increased by 4,418 to stand at 232,466, while non-commercial short positions decreased by 5,634 to 72,603. Consequently, the spread between long and short positions surged by 1,125. The closing price was lower, settling at 1.0922 compared to 1.0981 the previous week.     Indicator signals: Moving averages: Trading is taking place around the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating market uncertainty. Please note that the time period and levels of the moving averages are analyzed only for the H1 chart, which differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 chart. Bollinger Bands If EUR/USD declines, the indicator's lower border near 1.0825 will serve as support.   Description of indicators: • A moving average of a 50-day period determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise; marked in yellow on the chart; • A moving average of a 30-day period determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise; marked in green on the chart; • MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) Fast EMA with a 12-day period; Slow EMA with a 26-day period. SMA with a 9-day period; • Bollinger Bands: 20-day period; • Non-commercial traders are speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions who use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements; • Long non-commercial positions represent the total number of long positions opened by non-commercial traders; • Short non-commercial positions represent the total number of short positions opened by non-commercial traders; • The non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.    

Analyzing Thursday's trades: GBP/USD on 30M chart     On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair fell to the lower band of the sideways channel, and this time the pair seems set to break through it. The pound sterling has already consolidated below the 1.2620 level, but it is still relatively weak. Nevertheless, the fact that even after the pair rebounded from this level on Wednesday, it did not aim for the upper band of the channel but returned to the lower one, indicates a possibility of bringing back the downtrend and an exit from the consolidation phase. There were two reports that could influence the pair's movement. Neither was good enough to propel the dollar by 100 points. This is another factor suggesting a potential revival of the downward movement. This is what we're counting on. We certainly don't expect the pound sterling to surge anytime soon. But who knows what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will reveal to the market on Friday...   GBP/USD on 5M chart Several trading signals were formed on the 5-minute chart. Midway through the European trading session, the pair settled below the 1.2688 level, which should have been taken as a signal for a short position. Subsequently, the price rebounded from this level, surpassed the 1.2653 mark, bounced off it from the bottom, and descended to the 1.2605-1.2620 area. The price did not form a buy signal at midnight, the short positions should have been closed manually. The profit stood at about 60 pips, which is an excellent result. But Thursday's movement was quite commendable.   Trading tips on Friday: On the 30-minute chart, the GBP/USD pair continues to tread within a sideways channel. We're still leaning towards a further decline in the British pound, believing it's currently overbought and unjustifiably pricey. However, the price hasn't left the consolidation phase yet, so there might be a new rebound from the 1.2620 level, which can push the pair's growth. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2457, 1.2499, 1.2538, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2653, 1.2688, 1.2748, 1.2787-1.2791, 1.2848-1.2860. Once the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, you can set the stop-loss at breakeven. On Friday, there's nothing particularly noteworthy slated in the UK. Investors will be expecting to listen to Powell's remarks in the Jackson Hole symposium.     Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines. Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.    

Medium-term downtrend phase of AUD/USD has reached an oversold condition with downside momentum easing. Key short-term support to watch will be at 0.6385. Intermediate resistance at 0.6490. The price actions of AUD/USD have been oscillating in a medium-term downtrend phase in place since the 17 July 2023 high which has been reinforced by the bearish breakdown of its former medium-term ascending trendline support from 13 October 2022 low on 9 August 2023. So far, the AUD/USD has plummeted by -530 pips from its 17 July 2023 high to its 17 August 2023 low of 0.6365, and the recent four weeks of decline have led to an oversold condition in terms of price actions     Fig 1:  AUD/USD medium-term trend as of 28 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The daily RSI oscillator of the AUD/USD, a gauge that measures momentum, oversold, and overbought conditions on price actions reached an oversold condition recently on 17 August 2023 and shaped a bullish divergence condition (a higher low) thereafter on last Friday, 25 August. These observations suggest that the downside momentum of the ongoing medium-term downtrend of AUD/USD may have eased which supports a potential imminent minor countertrend/consolidation phase. These positive elements have also occurred at a key support of 0.6385 that coincided with the 10 November 2022 low and the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the prior medium-term up move from 13 October 2022 low to 2 February 2023 high.     Fig 2:  AUD/USD minor short-term trend as of 28 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Since its 17 August 2023 low, the price actions of AUD/USD have started to evolve into a minor range configuration with its key short-term pivotal support at 0.6385 and respective minor range resistance at 0.6490 (also the 20-day moving average). A clearance above 0.6490 sees the next resistances coming in at 0.6510 and 0.6600 (5 August/10 August 2023 minor swing highs areas, pull-back resistance of the former medium-term ascending trendline support from 13 October 2022 low & the 50-day moving average). However, failure to hold the 0.6385 key short-term support invalidates the minor countertrend rebound scenario for a continuation of the impulsive down move sequence of the medium-term downtrend phase towards the next supports at 0.6310 and 0.6270 in the first step.

Investors becoming wary about the economic outlook Supply cuts remain supportive Head and shoulders neckline provides support Oil prices recovered a little toward the back end of the week after coming under some pressure this month. Supply cuts from OPEC+ continue to support the market but uncertainty over the global economic outlook – sluggish recovery in China, possible recession in the US and Europe – are weighing a little.  Recent economic data has not been encouraging and central banks are maintaining their hawkish positioning which could compound that pressure further going into the end of the year. But with supply cuts continuing to be extended, particularly the voluntary monthly reductions from Saudi Arabia and Russia, the market is being supported, perhaps in a new higher trading range above $80 in Brent.     A major area of support Brent crude ran into support over the last couple of days in a very interesting area, around $82.50, a break of which could have sent a very bearish signal.   This area coincides with support from earlier this month as well as the 200/233-day simple moving average band which it only broke back above a month ago for the first time since August last year. A rebound off here could be viewed as confirmation of the initial breakout. A move below would not only have sent a bearish signal, it would also have triggered the break of the neckline of a suspected head and shoulder pattern which could have been quite significant.     

JOLTS job openings slip to 8.827m (9.465m expected, 9.165m previously) Consumer confidence also falls but the survey is volatile Is last week’s breakout stalling?   As we near the end of the summer, activity will start to pick up again and that may begin this week in the build-up to Friday’s jobs report. With Jackson Hole behind us, and not really living up to the usual hype, the focus now switches to the September central bank meetings and the key data releases that could sway them one way or another as policymakers ask themselves whether they’ve already done enough. From the Fed’s perspective, the week is off to a promising start with the JOLTS job opening report much softer than expected, alongside downward revisions to the previous month. The Fed needs to see a softer labor market to be confident that price pressures aren’t just abating but substantially and sustainably and this report is a move in the right direction. Job openings are now back at levels last seen in the summer of 2021 and not too far from where they were pre-pandemic. Further softness over the next few months looks very plausible which could contribute to a cooler labor market and sustainably lower wage growth. The CB consumer confidence number also suggests households are still wary, although the survey can be quite volatile and correlated with factors such as stock markets and gas prices, as we’ve seen the last couple of months alone.   Breakout to gather pace? Cable had been threatening to break lower throughout August and it finally happened at the end of last week, with the price moving below 1.26 and closing below the 55/89-day simple moving average band.       That could be viewed as a very bearish moving coming soon after a brief 38.2% retracement – July highs to early and mid-August lows – and a repeated test of that support. While it has consolidated a little higher since, that US data did briefly push it lower once more although it has since pared those moves. What’s interesting is the momentum indicators at the bottom as while the pair hasn’t accelerated lower following the breakout in a significant way, the MACD and stochastic look fairly healthy. There’s a lot of economic data this week though from the US that could sway this one way or another.      

Bullish acceleration within long-term secular uptrend to print a fresh all-time high of 166.60 yesterday, 30 August. Current minor pull-back of 102 pips from 166.60 all-time high has almost reached a short-term oversold condition as indicated by the hourly RSI. Key short-term support rests at 165.10. The cross-pair CHF/JPY has continued its impulsive up-move sequence in the month of August where it rallied by +291 pips as of 31 August 2023 at this time of the writing, capping off a relentless bullish acceleration seen in the past six months with an accumulated gain of +2,378 pips since January 2023 reinforced by a clear bullish breakout from the longer-term secular ascending channel resistance (upper boundary) in the month of April 2023. It has already surpassed the prior major secular peak of 158.45 printed in October 1979 and hit a fresh all-time intraday high of 166.60 yesterday, 30 August.   Bullish acceleration of long-term secular uptrend phase   Fig 1:  CHF/JPY long-term term secular trend as of 31 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)   Hourly RSI oscillator has almost reached oversold condition Fig 2:  CHF/JPY minor short-term trend as of 31 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

In this Technical Update: DAX / GER40, AEX25 / NETH25, BEL20 / BELG20, CAC40 / FRA40 and SMI20 / SWISS20 DAX is range bound between 16,060 and 15,482. Break out needed for direction. Negative sentiment on RSI is indicating break is to be to the down side, and with the 55 and 100 Moving Average slightly declining the underlying trend sentiment is bearish. If closing below key support at around 15,482 there is downside risk to around 15K.Breaking bullish can be a struggle with the two Moving Average acting as a ceiling. It could be a struggle for DAX to penetrate. But if it does a move to July peak around 16,500 is likely       AEX25/NETH25 is bouncing from key strong support at around 730. However, the trend is down and there is no RSI divergence supporting the view of lower AEX levels. If AEX is closing below 730 a swift sell-off down to around 716-710 support is likely.For AEX to demolish the bearish trend a close above 755 is needed.However, with the 55 Moving Average on the verge of breaking below the 100 while they are bot declining thus forming a Death Cross upside potential is limited. That is not bullish for AEX     BEL20/BELG20 is side stepping failing to close above key resistance at around 3,696.RSI sentiment is negative indicating BEL20 is likely to trade lower in coming days and weeks.A close below 3,610 could ignite a sell off down to around 3,600-3,550.A close above 3,696 is needed for BEL20 to reverse to uptrend         CAC40/FRA40 Index has been range bound since April with a bearish undertone. The 200 Moving Average is providing support  but upside potential seems limited with the Index moving below declining 55 and 100 Moving Averages. A re-test of key strong support at around 7,082 is in the cards.If CAC40 is closing below 7,082 there is no strong support until around 6,900       SMI20/SWISS20 is forming symmetrical triangle pattern. Break out is needed for direction.Break out direction is likely to be to the downside as indicated by the negative RSI sentiment and all Moving Averages decliningIf that is the scenario that will play out SMI has downside potential to around 10,515 before finding support.Minor support at around 10,750.If Bullish break out there is strong overhead resistance with the declining Moving Averages above the Index.A close above 11,173 is needed for bullish trend      

  Red lines- bearish channel blue lines- Fibonacci retracement levels Gold price is trading below $1,900. Recently price got rejected at the upper channel boundary showing new signs of weakness. Price has now formed a new lower low as it moves lower towards the August lows around $1,884. Gold price remains vulnerable to more downside. Our next downside target is around $1,850-60 area. Daily trend remains bearish as price continues forming lower highs and lower lows. A new low below $1,884 is very possible to be seen this week. Nevertheless, at this point in time, we do not see much more downside potential in Gold. Traders should be getting ready for reversal signals.  

  From what we can see on the daily chart of USD/CAD commodity currency pairs, there is the Loonie which is move down below where this is marked by the Alligator's mouth wide open and the Awesome Oscillator moving below level 0, meaning it is the Seller who dominates on the daily USD/CAD chart but a reversal signal appears, namely the first Wiseman Bullish Divergent Bar so that in the next few days USD/CAD has the potential for a turning point to occur strengthens upwards to level 1.3415 if volatility and momentum are supportive after breaking above that level then level 1.3618 will be the next target to be achieved but all the scenarios described above will become invalid and cancel automatically if before reaching the target levels mentioned above Previously, USD/CAD suddenly weakened again until it penetrated below the level of 1.3176.  

EUR/USD In the final trading day of 2023, the euro fell by 25 pips on below-average volume, finding support at 1.1033. Since there was no significant profit-taking, we expect the uptrend to remain intact. A break above the level of 1.1076 opens up a substantial target like 1.1185, which is the November 2021 low and the March 2022 high. We could see bullish potential at 1.1280. The Marlin oscillator has also corrected lower, visually preparing for a reversal into a new upward wave.   All the price action and oscillator movements occur within an uptrend. It's worth noting that this progress is taking place within a medium-term green-colored ascending price channel. Even if there is a break below the 1.1033 support level, we will not hastily revise the main scenario.   On the 4-hour chart, the price is supported by the balance indicator line. The Marlin oscillator is in a bearish territory but may require a trigger to return to the bullish territory. Today's reports on the final estimates of the eurozone and U.S. industrial PMIs for December may serve as a catalyst. The forecasts remain unchanged (44.2 and 48.2, respectively), but tomorrow's Manufacturing ISM for December is projected to stand at 47.1, up from 46.7 in November. We can assume that today's final estimate of the Manufacturing PMI might surprise everyone and turn out to be better than expected. Such, albeit minor, optimism could sustain risk appetite and push stock markets and counter-dollar currencies into the green zone.

What could go wrong? Energy prices could go wrong. Oil bulls finally got the positive breakout that they were looking for in oil prices. The barrel of American crude cleared the $75pb resistance and extended gains past $77pb on muddy geopolitical picture in the Middle East and on the back of a 9-mio barrel slump in US weekly oil inventories. The American crude tested the 200-DMA, near $77.50pb, to the upside but has so far been unable to take it out. Moving forward: Positive momentum is building, the ample supply story has been broadly priced in and if Mid East tensions take over the market narrative, there is no reason to keep the oil bulls contained. The next natural target is the 200-DMA. If broken, oil bulls will challenge the $78.60, the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on September to December selloff and a breakout above this level will point at a medium term bullish reversal, and could pave the way for a further rise to the $80pb.