blockchain technology

According to the latest study by software company ConsenSys, as many as 92% of people around the world have heard of cryptocurrencies. In a study conducted on a group of 15,158 people in 15 countries, it turned out that despite high awareness, understanding of blockchain technology is much lower.   This proves that digital currencies such as Bitcoin have become a household name. However, only 8% of respondents could confidently say that they knew the general concept of Web3, the decentralized Internet of the future. Although cryptocurrencies and blockchain have gained mainstream awareness, most people do not fully understand what it is all about and need to update their knowledge on the subject. The results of the study show that developing regions of the world show the greatest awareness and interest in cryptocurrencies. Nigeria, South Africa and Brazil lead on this issue. With 99% of Nigerian respondents showing crypto awareness and over 70% correctly defining what blockchain is.     Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair has made a new swing high at the level of $31,002, but the Doji candlestick pattern was made at the top of the move on the H4 time frame chart. The market reversed and is now back inside the trading range. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $29,556 and the intraday technical resistance is located at $30,328.   Moreover, the bulls had broken above the technical resistance located at $28,446 and now this level will work as the technical support. The momentum is strong and positive on the H4 time frame chart and on a Daily time frame chart, so the bulls are ready for another wave up. The next target for bulls is still seen at the level of $32,350.  

In this Outlook, our chief focus is on the current market impact of the AI theme across markets and around the world. But Steen’s introductory piece also argues that market participants are making a mistake in believing that the current market cycle will play out like previous ones, as inflation is set to stay higher for longer than the market anticipates, which will eventually register as an enormous surprise, given that yield curves in most markets are pricing significant eventual policy easing starting early next year and a glide path to a soft landing. The complacency surrounding that disinflationary and soft-landing scenario have kept long yield anchored and allowed equity markets, and particularly AI-linked names, to inflate perilously. Also on the AI theme that has dominated focus over the last quarter: Equity strategist Peter Garnry argues that the emergence of advanced AI systems such as GPT-4 from OpenAI is by far the most surprising event this year, a phenomenon that has turned everything on its head. Further, he writes that the AI-hyped rally has pushed the US equity market to new extremes, even as the benefits and risks of this new technology are hotly debated. He predicts that we risk seeing US and China engaging in an AI arms race. Our Greater China strategist, Redmond Wong, points to the challenges China faces in the field of generative AI as it navigates a global order of fragmentation. The success of generative AI breakthroughs in the US, coupled with limited computing power and geopolitical tensions, has threatened to break down China’s virtuous cycle of technology application, productivity enhancement and growth. Macro strategist Charu Chanana highlights Japan’s expertise in semiconductor manufacturing and robotic integration, suggesting these could be the foundation of a very strong presence in AI. She notes that Japanese equities and artificial intelligence combine the two most powerful market themes of this year. Cryptocurrency analyst Mads Eberhardt notes that AI fever has stolen the spotlight from blockchain technology and the cryptocurrency market generally, pushing the space further into speculative no man’s land. Despite the contrasting performance between crypto and AI-linked assets, there are striking similarities, especially the risk of bubble-like dynamics. Investment Coach Hans Oudshoorn outlines in his piece how investors can gain exposure to AI via ETFs that provide considerable diversification, but still noting the risks from valuations that have become very elevated in places. In addition to the AI focus, this report also delves into the outlook across major asset classes: In currencies, FX strategist John Hardy notes that USD shorts could be set for a vicious reality check if the US economy remains resilient and core inflation remains sticky, possibly engaging both sides of the "USD smile" that drive USD strength: the Fed remaining on the warpath and market turmoil.  John notes that the stakes are even higher for the Japanese yen if the longer yields of the major sovereign yield curves have to price in a new economic acceleration, as the BoJ will have to eventually capitulate on its yield-curve-control policy. In commodities, commodity strategist Ole Hansen suggests that the commodity sector looks set to start the third quarter on a firmer footing after months of weakness saw a partial reversal during June. Ole notes that strong gains were at times driven by a weaker US dollar, but specific developments in each sector also weighed. Most concerning for is the risk of higher food prices into the autumn, as several key growing regions battle with hot and dry weather conditions sparked by the first El Niño weather pattern in years. Fixed income strategist Althea Spinozzi argues that central banks face a troubling dilemma: if they really want to get ahead of inflation, they will need to burst asset bubbles created by a decade of quantitative easing (QE) and trigger a recession. But she asks whether they are willing to take policy tightening that far and ever win the inflation fight.

In this Outlook, our chief focus is on the current market impact of the AI theme across markets and around the world. But Steen’s introductory piece also argues that market participants are making a mistake in believing that the current market cycle will play out like previous ones, as inflation is set to stay higher for longer than the market anticipates, which will eventually register as an enormous surprise, given that yield curves in most markets are pricing significant eventual policy easing starting early next year and a glide path to a soft landing. The complacency surrounding that disinflationary and soft-landing scenario have kept long yield anchored and allowed equity markets, and particularly AI-linked names, to inflate perilously. Also on the AI theme that has dominated focus over the last quarter: Equity strategist Peter Garnry argues that the emergence of advanced AI systems such as GPT-4 from OpenAI is by far the most surprising event this year, a phenomenon that has turned everything on its head. Further, he writes that the AI-hyped rally has pushed the US equity market to new extremes, even as the benefits and risks of this new technology are hotly debated. He predicts that we risk seeing US and China engaging in an AI arms race. Our Greater China strategist, Redmond Wong, points to the challenges China faces in the field of generative AI as it navigates a global order of fragmentation. The success of generative AI breakthroughs in the US, coupled with limited computing power and geopolitical tensions, has threatened to break down China’s virtuous cycle of technology application, productivity enhancement and growth. Macro strategist Charu Chanana highlights Japan’s expertise in semiconductor manufacturing and robotic integration, suggesting these could be the foundation of a very strong presence in AI. She notes that Japanese equities and artificial intelligence combine the two most powerful market themes of this year. Cryptocurrency analyst Mads Eberhardt notes that AI fever has stolen the spotlight from blockchain technology and the cryptocurrency market generally, pushing the space further into speculative no man’s land. Despite the contrasting performance between crypto and AI-linked assets, there are striking similarities, especially the risk of bubble-like dynamics. Investment Coach Hans Oudshoorn outlines in his piece how investors can gain exposure to AI via ETFs that provide considerable diversification, but still noting the risks from valuations that have become very elevated in places. In addition to the AI focus, this report also delves into the outlook across major asset classes: In currencies, FX strategist John Hardy notes that USD shorts could be set for a vicious reality check if the US economy remains resilient and core inflation remains sticky, possibly engaging both sides of the "USD smile" that drive USD strength: the Fed remaining on the warpath and market turmoil.  John notes that the stakes are even higher for the Japanese yen if the longer yields of the major sovereign yield curves have to price in a new economic acceleration, as the BoJ will have to eventually capitulate on its yield-curve-control policy. In commodities, commodity strategist Ole Hansen suggests that the commodity sector looks set to start the third quarter on a firmer footing after months of weakness saw a partial reversal during June. Ole notes that strong gains were at times driven by a weaker US dollar, but specific developments in each sector also weighed. Most concerning for is the risk of higher food prices into the autumn, as several key growing regions battle with hot and dry weather conditions sparked by the first El Niño weather pattern in years. Fixed income strategist Althea Spinozzi argues that central banks face a troubling dilemma: if they really want to get ahead of inflation, they will need to burst asset bubbles created by a decade of quantitative easing (QE) and trigger a recession. But she asks whether they are willing to take policy tightening that far and ever win the inflation fight.

Cryptocurrencies kick off the new year with a strong performance, with Bitcoin surging by over 5% today, surpassing the $45,000 mark and resulting in a notable week-to-date and year-to-date gain for Bitcoin, reaching almost 9%. While the exact catalyst for this upward movement remains unclear, the overarching narrative in the cryptocurrency market centers around spot Bitcoin ETFs with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) currently evaluating multiple applications and with unconfirmed reports suggesting that a decision to approve these applications and facilitate the listing of spot Bitcoin ETFs could be imminent, possibly within the week. A Reuters report from December 29, 2023, hinted at the possibility that the US regulator might clear some spot Bitcoin ETFs either today or tomorrow, paving the way for the ETF launch on January 10, 2024. The authenticity of this report and the likelihood of the green light being imminent remain uncertain, but the cryptocurrency markets have been responsive to any positive news, even those with vague details. Bitcoin is currently trading at its highest level since April 2022, marking a daily high just below the $46,000 threshold and from a technical standpoint, the situation appears bullish, as BITCOIN has broken above the upper limit of the $41,000-44,300 trading range and continues to gain momentum. As optimism grows in the crypto space, It seems almost certain that a Bitcoin ETF will be approved and the main doubts are now about timing rather than anything else.     

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