block

Adyen has put Block and the entire payments industry into trouble

The payments industry was one of the big winning themes of the pandemic and growth looked sure for decades to come inflating valuations to insane levels in late 2021. Since then, as a function of lower growth and higher interest rates, valuations have come down hard. Investors have gone from valuing Block at 5.6x enterprise value to sales in 2019 to 1.6x in 2023 reflecting lower expectations for growth but also operating margin as the industry has matured and technology advantages have converged among industry players. Adyen latest big miss on volume and operating margin was a big hit to the industry and has raised questions about whether payment companies outside American Express, Mastercard and Visa will ever be as profitable as the big three.

Block, formerly Square, generated revenue of $19.7bn in the last 12 months with EBITDA of $225mn (1.1% operating margin) and thus it is quite clear that investors want to see t

Gate.io Sponsors Block World Tour Andorra 2022

Gate.io Sponsors Block World Tour Andorra 2022

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 04.04.2022 09:12
Gate.io, one of the leading cryptocurrency exchanges joins the Block World Tour as an official sponsor of the Blockchain Summit which is being held at the Lauredia Cultural and Congress Center, Andorra on the 1st and 2nd of April, 2022. The 2- day Block World Tour is a global multicultural event aimed at connecting top industry experts and promoting various sectors of the advancing technology industry, highlighting its new developments and innovations. Featuring top speakers in the blockchain industry, the summit hosts a series of educational activities, promoting the inclusivity of the people in the expanding Blockchain world and sectors including NFTs, Metaverse, DeFi, and Web 3.0. “"The future of baking will be a bank without money, it will be a bank with finance digital assets"- Edmon Pallerola, during the Distributed Finance Panel at the summit. Members of the Gate.io team including the Chief Marketing Officer, Marie Tatibouet, and the Head Of Business Development, Mariela Tanchez are also present to share insights on the crypto industry. “2022 will be the year that Web 3.0 really comes alive. Many of the different blockchain technologies like Defi protocols, NFTs, DAOs are starting to truly interact with each other. Given the early stages we're in, it's still very much a beta experience. However, we will look back a few years from now as the first year the tetris machine started to assemble”, said Marie Tatibouet on the CEX - DeFi &Security Panel discussion. As sponsors of the Andorran Block World Tour, Gate.io aims to significantly support the blockchain industry as it remains among the top leaders of the space, enhancing connections and networking to further contribute to a successful future of the industry. About Gate.io Established in 2013, Gate.io is one of the oldest, leading cryptocurrency exchanges. Gate.io offers most of the leading digital assets and has over 10 million registered users across the world. It is consistently ranked as one of the top 10 cryptocurrency exchanges based on liquidity and trading volume on CoinGecko, and has been verified by the Blockchain Transparency Institute (BTI). Additionally, Gate.io has been given a rating of 4.5 by Forbes Advisor, making it one of the Best Crypto Exchanges for 2021. Besides the main exchange, Gate.io also offers other services such as decentralized finance, research and analytics, venture capital investments, wallet services and more. Disclaimer: Please be noted that Gate.io may not be able to provide full scale service in certain markets and jurisdictions, and Gate may restrict or prohibit the use of all or a portion of the Services from Restricted Locations. For detail of the restricted locations, please read the Terms of Service “Section II Eligibility”.
Estimating Future Stock Returns, December 2021 Update

Estimating Future Stock Returns, December 2021 Update

David Merkel David Merkel 11.03.2022 06:15
Image credit: All images belong to Aleph Blog This should be a brief post. At the end of 2021, the S&P 500 was poised to nominally return -1.53%/year over the next 10 years. As of the close yesterday, that figure was 0.73%/year. The only period compares with this valuation-wise is the dot-com bubble. We are near dot-com level valuations, in the 98th percentile. And if you view the 10-year returns from the worst time of the dot-com bubble to now, you can see that the results they obtained are worse than what I forecast here. Of course, a lot of what will happen in nominal terms will rely on the actions of the Fed. Will the Fed: Allow a real recession to clear away dud assets that are on life support from low rates? (Collapsing the current stock/junk bubble.. they would never do this unless their hands were tied.)Risk the 1994 scenario where the compressed coupon stack in the Residential Mortgage Backed Securities [RMBS] market begins a self-reinforcing interest rate rise cycle on the long end as mortgage rates rise, prepayments drop, mortgage durations extend, leading to bond managers selling RMBS and long bonds with abandon to bring their duration risk down. The Fed chases the yield curve up, and the stock and housing markets both fall. The Fed chokes on their policy, and gives up tightening to save both markets.Or, if not the 1994 scenario, does the Fed dare to stop tightening before the yield curve inverts, and just wait for a flat curve to do its work? (Nah, that would be smart. The Fed always inverts the curve to prove their manliness, and blows some part of the market up in the process.)Or do they just accept financial repression, and punish savers to benefit wage earners (Will it really work? Dubious.), as the Fed keeps their policy rate low. I posed those scenarios to Tom Barkin, President of the Richmond Fed when he came to speak to the CFA Institute at Baltimore last week. He gave answers that were either evasive, or he didn’t get it. Anyway, this is an awkward market situation, but the one thing that is clear to me is that investors should be at the lower end of risk for their asset allocation. PS — As for me, I am living with value stocks, small stocks, and international stocks. Very little in the S&P 500 here.
Welcome Back to 1994!

Welcome Back to 1994!

David Merkel David Merkel 23.03.2022 03:03
Image Credit: Aleph Blog with help from FRED || Believe it or not, I used FRED before it was a web resource — it was a standalone “bulletin board” that I woul dial into on my computer modem I’ve talked about this here: Estimating Future Stock Returns, December 2021 UpdateTime for Another Convexity Crisis?The First Priority of Risk Control (2009, this tells the story of what I did during the 1994 crisis.) And recently I have tweeted about it. Mortgage rates are surging faster than expected, prompting economists to lower their home sales forecasts https://t.co/IiX2gPlAnI 1994 scenario re-occurring. Falling prepayments makes MBS lengthen, leading indexed bond managers to sell low-coupon MBS forcing rates still higher— David Merkel (@AlephBlog) March 22, 2022 We may be in the 1994 scenario where mortgage durations are extending, dragging the long end of the yield, as those that hedge duration are forced to sell, setting up a self-reinforcing move up in yields.— David Merkel (@AlephBlog) March 22, 2022 The MBS coupon stack is a lot flatter in 2022 than in 1994. There is more than 4X the mortgage debt now than in 1994. Lots of pent-up negative convexity. I lived through that in 1994, and made money off it.— David Merkel (@AlephBlog) March 22, 2022 Then from the piece Classic: Avoid the Dangers of Data-Mining, Part 2 “In 1992-1993, there were a number of bright investors who had “picked the lock” of the residential mortgage-backed securities market. Many of them had estimated complex multifactor relationships that allowed them to estimate the likely amount of mortgage prepayment within mortgage pools. Armed with that knowledge, they bought some of the riskiest securities backed by portions of the cash flows from the pools. They probably estimated the past relationships properly, but the models failed when no-cost prepayment became common, and failed again when the Federal Reserve raised rates aggressively in 1994. The failures were astounding: David Askin’s hedge funds, Orange County, the funds at Piper Jaffray that Worth Bruntjen managed, some small life insurers, etc. If that wasn’t enough, there were many major financial institutions that dropped billions on this trade without failing. What’s the lesson? Models that worked well in the past might not work so well in the future, particularly at high degrees of leverage. Small deviations from what made the relationship work in the past can be amplified by leverage into huge disasters.“ Finally from the piece What Brings Maturity to a Market: Negative Convexity: Through late 1993, structurers of residential mortgage securities were very creative, making tranches in mortgage securitizations that bore a disproportionate amount of risk, particularly compared to the yield received. In 1994 to early 1995, that illusion was destroyed as the bond market was dragged to higher yields by the Fed plus mortgage bond managers who tried to limit their interest rate risks individually, leading to a more general crisis. That created the worst bond market since 1926. ================================================== I am not saying it is certain, but I think it is likely that we are experiencing a panic in the mortgage bond market now. Like 1994, we have had a complacent Fed that left policy rates too low for too long. Both were foolish times, where policy should have been tighter. This led to massive refinancing of mortgages, and many new mortgages at low rates. But when that happens with most mortgages being low rate, if the Fed hints at or starts raising rates, prepayments will fall and Mortgage-Backed Securities [MBS] will lengthen duration while falling in price. Bond managers, most of whom are indexed and want a fixed duration, will start selling long bonds and MBS, leading long rates to rise, and the cycle temporarily becomes self-perpetuating. This is likely the situation that we are in now, and it very well may make the Fed overreact as they did in 1994. All good economists know the monetary policy acts with long and variable lags. But the FOMC for PR reasons acts as if their actions are immediate. Thus they become macho, and raise their rates too far, leading to a crash. (Can we eliminate the Fed? Gold was better, if we regulated the banks properly. Or, limit the slope of the yield curve.) I’m planning on making money on the opposite side of this trade if I am right. I will buy long Treasuries after the peak. I am watching this regularly, and will act when it is clear to me, but not the market as a whole, which in late 1994 to early 1995 did not know which end was up. Anyway, that’s all. The only good part of this environment is that my bond portfolios are losing less than the general market.
When I was a Boy… (2)

When I was a Boy… (2)

David Merkel David Merkel 05.04.2022 04:51
Photo Credit: House Photography || I always read a lot when I was young This a is follow-up to When I was a Boy… which I wrote ~5 1/2 years ago. It is also a response to an article posted by Jason Zweig, who I have talked with once or twice, and emailed a little more than that. In that article, he asks the question: How did you learn how to invest? Did you take a class, play a stock-market game in school, have a friend or family member as a mentor?How Should Kids Learn to Invest? If you read the original article, you would know that my original start was from two gifts of stock that male relatives in my extended family gave me in the 1960s. They picked two high-fliers — Litton Industries and Magnavox. Bought and held, by the mid-1970s both generated >80% losses when they were bought by another company. Did I ever play the stock market game in school? Yes, once when I was in seventh grade (early 1973). Our school decided to play around and do an intersession between the two semesters. It was a two week course called “Bulls and Bears. How this Little Piggy Went to Market.” My favorite science teacher was teaching it. I realized that the game was utterly short-term and so I put all of my play money into AT&T warrants, knowing that if AT&T stock rose, the warrants would zoom up. Was I a smart kid, or what? What. Well, AT&T when nowhere for those two weeks, and the same for the warrants. They were at the same price at the contest end, thus losing the commissions on both sides, and this was when commissions were high, prior to deregulation. The three main things that taught me about investing were watching Wall Street Week with my Mom, borrowing books on investing at the Brookfield library, and reading the Value Line subscription that she purchased. I probably read 10 books on investing before I was 18. Louis Rukeyser was an affable guide to the markets, including the elves, the guests, etc. (As an aside, Frank A. Cappiello, Jr. was a founding member of the Baltimore Security Analysts Society, and a frequent guest on his show. After all, where is Owings Mills, Maryland?) With Value Line, I began to understand how corporations worked. The one-page descriptions of companies were just big enough to give me a good idea of what was going on, while not over-taxing a kid 12-21 years old. I remember as a student at Johns Hopkins earning 16% on my money market fund in my freshman year.  I was only at Hopkins for three years 1979-1982, but those were tough years, particularly in the Midwest “Rust Belt.”  My father’s business earned little, but my Mom’s investing paid off.  Though not “working” she was making more off the family portfolio than my Dad was earning off his business.  As it was, to help my family then, I paid the last semester of tuition.  (My Mom later paid me back for that.)  I came back home in 1982 with $5 in my pocket.  Then I learned that I overdrew my bank account, costing me $10. Oh, one more thing the clever and distinguished Carl Christ, who signed my Master’s Thesis at Hopkins, taught a class on investing in my junior year. I learned a lot, but the main thing I remember was writing a research report on a firm that made specialty paper — James River. My mother had owned it for a long time, but had sold her stake at an opportune time. When I wrote the report, she did not own it, and the stock had fallen from where she sold it. Dr. Christ had never heard of James River, an was fascinated at what was at that time a midcap firm in a underfollowed industry. I got an “A.” When I showed the report to my Mom, she bought it again, and made money of it. Also, in my senior year, I wrote my thesis on stock splits. As I said there: This brings me to my conclusion: stock splits are a momentum effect, but it is larger when companies are still have a cheap valuation. Perhaps splits have no effect on stock performance — it is all momentum and valuation. To me, that is the most likely conclusion, and my thesis anticipated quantitative money management by 10+ years.On Stock Splits In the summer of 1982, I remember sitting down with Value Line in my family’s living room (quiet place, no TV) and selecting a paper portfolio of 40-50 stocks. I went through all 1700 stocks. I recorded the prices in the Milwaukee Journal, and then went to Grad School at UC-Davis. Over the next year the stocks in my “portfolio” appreciated at double the rate of the market. At that time, I was a TA for a Corporate Financial Management class. I showed it to the professor, and he said, “Oh, you have a beta of two.” I said, “No, this portfolio has stocks that are not as risky as the market. This is alpha, not beta.” Several years later, I participated in the Value Line Investing Contest. I placed in the top 1%, but not good enough to win. When my dissertation committee dissolved, I was forced to abandon my Ph. D. I took three actuarial exams on the fly in early 1986 and passed. I had an informational interview at Pacific Standard Life which sponsored the exams, and they hired me on the spot. (My boss’ secretary told me that the boss said, “No one can pass the first three exams on the first try.” Then a fellow employee told me later, “You didn’t negotiate hard enough. They would have hired you regardless.”) When I worked for Pacific Standard Life, and later AIG, I got investment-related projects, because I was the one actuary that understood investing. During this time, I was managing my own portfolio, sometimes better, sometimes worse. I bought stocks, and mutual funds investing outside the US. I had a CTA in my portfolio. I tried investing in spectrum with the FCC, but that was a bomb. I settled on small cap value investing in the mid-1990s, which was a bad era for small cap value. Still, I managed to keep pace with the S&P 500. In 2000, I had an email exchange with Kenneth Fisher (yes, the big guy of Fisher Investments). This led to he creation of my eight rules. As I wrote on portfolio rule three: Let me give you a little history of how the eight rules came to be. In 2000, I had an e-mail discussion with Kenneth Fisher. I explained to him what I had been doing with small-cap value, and how I had done well with it in the 90s. He told me to forget everything that I’ve learned, especially the CFA syllabus, and look for the things that I can do better than anyone else. We exchanged about five or so e-mails; I appreciate the time he spent on me. So I sat back and thought about what investments had worked best for me in the past. I noticed that when I got the call right on cyclical industries, the results were spectacular. I also noticed that I lost most when investing in companies that didn’t have good balance sheets, no matter how “cheap” they were in terms of valuation. I came to the conclusion that size and value/growth were not the major determinants of my investing success. Instead, industry selection played a large role in what went right and wrong with my investment decisions. So, I decided to formalize that. I would rotate industries with a value bias. But that would have other impacts on how I invested. One of those impacts is rule number three. Over the next ten years, I tore up the pavement, and would have been in the top percentile of mutual fund managers. And so I opened my own shop in 2010, to find for the next eleven years that value investing was overrated. My life is bigger than my little company. I am a happy man. I know Jesus Christ; I have eternal life. Have there been disappointments? Of course. The one main positive I can say about my investing is that I rarely have big losses on any security. This is not due to stop losses; I pay attention to balance sheets and the cyclicality of markets. Even at the age of 61, I am still learning. I am not a boy, obviously, but I am still absorbing new ideas. To all who read me, be life-long learners. I am closer to the end to my life than my beginning, but invest! Take your opportunities to learn and capitalize on them! And remember, Judgement Day is coming. Are you ready? Investments will help you for now, but will be useless in the hereafter.
On Concentrated Positions

On Concentrated Positions

David Merkel David Merkel 13.04.2022 03:29
Photo Credit: John.U || Look at all those eggs in one basket! The owner *is* watching it carefully, right? Jason Zweig recent wrote an article on owning stock in the company that you work for. Then today in his WSJ newsletter he asked the following question: What’s the most concentrated investment position you’ve ever had? (In other words, what single investment made up the greatest proportion of your portfolio?) Did it work out well or poorly? What did you learn from it? I have one article to answer both questions called Life with Wife. It’s a cute article which runs through two times in my life where I had an overly concentrated investment position. The first one was regarding The St. Paul (acquired by The Travelers), where I took my first big bonus, and put it all into shares of The St. Paul. I got derided for doing that by my colleagues in the investment department, but with a AA balance sheet, trading at 55% of tangible book value, and 8x forward earnings, I felt I had a reasonable provision against adverse deviation — a margin of safety. If you read the article, you will see that I almost doubled my money in six months, then sold. At the peak it was half of my net worth, and I had a mortgage then. So should you invest in your own company? Well, are you working for Tesla or Enron? I am being facetious here, as the guys at Enron thought they were working for a cutting-edge company like Tesla. But any analyst worth his salt would have seen that free cash flow at Enron was deeply negative. I have a neighbor who is a Tesla mechanic. As I was mowing my lawn one day, he waved me over. He wanted advice. He hinted to me how much his Tesla shares were worth. He had consulted an investment advisor who had told him to sell the wad, and the advisor would create a growth and income portfolio allowing him to retire (he is in his 60s). But he was conflicted, because Tesla was doing so well. He asked me what I would do if I was in his shoes. (Note: the TSLA shares were likely 95% of his net worth.) I said, “Do half, or sell 10-20% per year over time, until you do sell half.” Doing that frees you from the binary decision that you might regret. After selling half, if the price goes up, you still have more capital gains. If the price goes down, you sold some at a good time. You can be happy with yourself no matter what. I have no idea what my neighbor did. Hopefully he sold some. The second situation in Life with Wife regarded my only significant private equity position, Wright Manufacturing, which makes the best commercial lawn mowers in the world. At that point, my holdings were 15% of my net worth, with no mortgage. The founder was throwing everything into growth, and sacrificing safety. If he hadn’t been my friend, I probably would not have invested with him. As it was, when I sold half, I had recouped my investment. After the Life with Wife article, I bought out several of the founder’s relatives, ending up with 2.2% of the company. I’ve made 5x on my money here, with distributions, and using the very thin “market” for shares. One of the founder’s sons leads the company now, and he is a far better manager than his father. I like this company, and am more likely to buy more than to sell at this point. But at this point, it is only 10% of my net worth. I may offer to buy more, but I am thinking about it. It trades at 6x earnings, with a stronger balance sheet than the founder worked with, and a stronger competitive position. The most recent price is still below where I sold it to the second largest shareholder. Price discovery is tough when there are only 20 shareholders, and new shareholders may only enter at the pleasure of the board of directors. Closing So, over my life, I have reduced the relative amount at risk on my biggest positions. Does that make sense? Of course — I have less time to make up for mistakes as I grow older. The only people who should be taking high risks when they are old are who are ultra-rich. If they fail, they will still have enough for a moderate existence. Be careful with concentrated positions. You need certainty about safety most, earnings second, and growth third. Otherwise you are a gambler, and most gamblers lose.
The Scale Versus the Casino

The Scale Versus the Casino

David Merkel David Merkel 28.04.2022 07:55
Photo Credits: Jen and www.david baxendale.com with help from pinetools || The casino is exciting. The scale is honest and unrelenting. I want to give an update to one of the major concepts of Ben Graham, in order to make it fit the modern era better. Ben Graham said: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/831517-in-the-short-run-the-market-is-a-voting-machine quoted from The Intelligent Investor So let me modify it: In the short run, the market is a casino, but in the long run, it is a scale. Is this an improvement? Probably not, but speculation has become so rampant that it may be a necessary modification to change voting machine to casino. The voting machine makes sense, but typically we think of voting as being democratic. We only get one vote per person. Markets are different. Someone who brings a little money to the market will not have the same influence as the one who brings a lot of money to the market. Thus my analogy of the casino, though typically casinos will place limits on how much the casino will wager. They want to avoid random large losses so that they can live to extract money from rubes for many years to come. The winner can brag that he “broke the bank,” but the casino survived to play on. Bill Hwang and his CFO were formally charged with fraud today. What did they do? They synthetically borrowed a lot of money from investment banks to own huge amounts of a few companies. Their buying pushed the prices of the stocks higher, allowing them to borrow more against the positions. But eventually as the stocks they owned had some bad results, the margin calls on his positions wiped him out as the stock prices fell. The scale trumped the casino. The same is true of crypto and meme stocks. Cryptocurrencies require a continuing inflow of real cash (admittedly fiat money) in order to appreciate. If people stop buying crypto on net, and that may be happening now, cryptocurrencies will decline. The scale says crypto is a zero — no intrinsic value. The casino begs for more people to bring real money to buy fake money. That applies to meme stocks as well. You can throw a lot of money at a stock and it will rise. But for it to stay there or rise further, it will need increasing free cash flows to validate the value of the firm. Going back to crypto, it lacks any link to the real economy. Crypto will only become legitimate when you can buy groceries and gasoline at a fixed amount of bitcoin that varies less than the same price in US dollars. As a final note on the Scale versus the Casino, I give you Elon Musk. He borrows against his shares of Tesla to buy Twitter. He either did not realize or ignored the fact that he could lose his stake in Tesla if the price of Tesla falls enough. Do you really want the margin desk to control your fate? This may not totally impoverish Musk, but it is not impossible that he could the entirety of his holdings of Tesla in order to keep his holdings of the unprofitable Twitter. All it would take is for short sellers to push Tesla below $740, and then the margin desk starts selling his shares into a falling market. Momentum, aided by an agreement leading to forced selling. The market abhors a vacuum. So it is for those who assume that things will continue to go right for them.
Oil Defies Broader Risk-off Sentiment: Commodities Update

Crypto News: (ARUSD) Arweave, rally watch as buyers clear $27

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 27.04.2022 03:53
Today our focus is on Arweave (ARUSD). Buyers, for now, have pulled back most of yesterday’s losses and continue to push at a possible engulfing bar pattern. Last month, price was supported by news 17M was raised to help make Arweaves data storage blockchain more usable. Up until today, thing’s haven’t been the best for Arweave, with the last four weeks of trade being lower. A shift has started this week, and we can see buyers trying to pull back from losses. Pattern focus, for now, remains on the daily. Today’s candle is close to forming an engulfing bar which sits just above a level of demand. A fair bit of pressure remains on today’s bar. We really want to see a firm close that really needs to beat yesterday’s open or high, and we would prefer to see a close above yesterday’s high, confirming the bar pattern. A close at that point should also lift the CCI above the 0, moving back into a bullish area and set up a break of the current downtrend. If those are achieved by the end of today’s NY session, we could be seeing a new up-leg developing. If price retraces today and closes below $27, that would cancel out the engulfing idea. If heavy selling resumes, a break of the demand area would suggest that the current downtrend has further to run. If we do see a new move higher get going, we have marked two levels of potential resistance, but we would think that key resistance could be the first real test if reached. Arweave D1 Chart The post Crypto News: Arweave, rally watch as buyers clear $27 appeared first on Eightcap.
UK Budget: Short-term positives to be met with medium-term caution

COT Currency Speculators raised British Pound Sterling bearish bets for 10th week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 15.05.2022 14:26
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for this week’s Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data this week was the rise in bearish bets for the British pound sterling currency futures contracts. Pound speculators have raised their bearish bets for a tenth consecutive week this week and for the eleventh time out of the past twelve weeks. Over the past ten-week time-frame, pound bets have dropped by a total of -79,261 contracts, going from -337 net positions on March 1st to a total of -79,598 net positions this week. The deterioration in speculator sentiment has now pushed the pound net position to the most bearish standing of the past one hundred and thirty-seven weeks, dating back to September 24th of 2019. Pound sterling sentiment has been hit by a recent slowing economy as the UK GDP declined by 0.1 percent in March after flat growth in February. Also, weighing on the UK economy is the war in Ukraine that has sharply raised inflation in the country (and elsewhere) and which could see the UK economy with the lowest growth rate among G7 countries in 2023, according to the IMF. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (22,907 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,705 contracts), Bitcoin (315 contracts) and the Mexican peso (2,102 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-9,660 contracts), Australian dollar (-13,198 contracts), Brazil real (-1,010 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,856 contracts), British pound sterling (-5,785 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-6,386 contracts), Canadian dollar (-14,436 contracts), Russian ruble (-263 contracts) and the Mexican peso (2,102 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-10-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index USD Index 57,556 84 34,776 86 -37,174 13 2,398 43 EUR 705,046 84 16,529 40 -43,026 64 26,497 18 GBP 264,594 80 -79,598 17 95,245 86 -15,647 23 JPY 247,278 87 -110,454 1 124,927 97 -14,473 24 CHF 51,282 37 -15,763 40 29,819 69 -14,056 16 CAD 151,009 31 -5,407 38 2,939 67 2,468 35 AUD 153,209 47 -41,714 46 47,126 54 -5,412 39 NZD 56,235 56 -12,996 49 16,874 56 -3,878 7 MXN 153,858 28 16,725 34 -20,866 64 4,141 61 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 61,450 55 40,778 90 -42,031 10 1,253 79 Bitcoin 10,841 57 703 100 -789 0 86 15 Open Interest is the amount of contracts that were live in the marketplace at time of data. US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 34,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,071 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.6 3.2 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.2 67.8 4.5 – Net Position: 34,776 -37,174 2,398 – Gross Longs: 49,864 1,837 4,970 – Gross Shorts: 15,088 39,011 2,572 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.0 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.8 12.8 42.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.6 -3.4 -19.3   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 22,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,378 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.4 53.3 12.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.0 59.4 8.3 – Net Position: 16,529 -43,026 26,497 – Gross Longs: 228,230 376,043 84,921 – Gross Shorts: 211,701 419,069 58,424 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.1 63.8 18.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.5 1.2 0.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -79,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,813 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.1 79.6 7.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.2 43.6 13.5 – Net Position: -79,598 95,245 -15,647 – Gross Longs: 29,469 210,627 20,157 – Gross Shorts: 109,067 115,382 35,804 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.6 86.0 23.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.5 25.6 -7.7   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -110,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,660 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -100,794 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.5 86.2 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.2 35.7 13.9 – Net Position: -110,454 124,927 -14,473 – Gross Longs: 11,196 213,084 19,811 – Gross Shorts: 121,650 88,157 34,284 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.8 96.6 24.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.1 0.0 16.7   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -15,763 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,856 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,907 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.2 74.6 16.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.0 16.5 43.5 – Net Position: -15,763 29,819 -14,056 – Gross Longs: 4,727 38,258 8,271 – Gross Shorts: 20,490 8,439 22,327 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 4.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.8 69.2 15.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.7 8.0 -7.6   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,029 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.6 49.8 21.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.2 47.9 20.1 – Net Position: -5,407 2,939 2,468 – Gross Longs: 38,679 75,215 32,880 – Gross Shorts: 44,086 72,276 30,412 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.3 66.9 34.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.0 14.5 -29.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -41,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,198 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,516 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.1 59.9 13.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.3 29.1 16.7 – Net Position: -41,714 47,126 -5,412 – Gross Longs: 36,869 91,731 20,131 – Gross Shorts: 78,583 44,605 25,543 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.2 54.0 39.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.3 4.7 -34.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,610 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.0 68.5 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.1 38.5 10.8 – Net Position: -12,996 16,874 -3,878 – Gross Longs: 15,203 38,541 2,216 – Gross Shorts: 28,199 21,667 6,094 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.5 56.4 7.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.4 26.0 -54.4   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,725 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,623 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.5 53.1 4.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.7 66.7 1.5 – Net Position: 16,725 -20,866 4,141 – Gross Longs: 63,921 81,735 6,467 – Gross Shorts: 47,196 102,601 2,326 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.5 64.1 60.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.6 -10.1 -3.5   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 40,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,010 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,788 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.5 15.4 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.1 83.8 3.0 – Net Position: 40,778 -42,031 1,253 – Gross Longs: 48,835 9,454 3,070 – Gross Shorts: 8,057 51,485 1,817 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.5 10.3 79.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.8 3.5 -20.6   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 388 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.1 2.1 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 74.6 9.4 8.3 – Net Position: 703 -789 86 – Gross Longs: 8,789 227 989 – Gross Shorts: 8,086 1,016 903 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 14.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.0 -24.9 -13.6   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee

Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 24.05.2022 22:00
Welcome trader, property investor, and bestselling author Stuart McPhee as he delivers his first Trading Week Ahead Live of June. Join him this coming Monday, as he starts the week by summarising the state of the markets in Forex, Indices, and Commodities. Then shares his perspective on potential trade ideas and opportunities in play for the coming week.  JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 1st June 2022! Would like you to receive more support and guidance around your trading activity? Then Join Stuart and the rest of the Trade Zone community this coming Wednesday at 7PM AEST (10AM BST). Watch as he gives you his first mid-week Live Market Update of the Month. Revisiting the weeks earlier trade ideas from Monday’s Trading week Ahead, Stuart updates his insight about the moves and progression that have been made and shares his beliefs in the market as we approach the weekend. Register Now At the end of the session, there will be a live Q&A for you to ask all your market, strategy, and trade-related questions and get the answers needed to unlock the secrets to trading CFDs. The Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So join the Eightcap Trade Zone this week as we explore the markets together, and please remember to trade safely! The post Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee appeared first on Eightcap.
Crypto Focus: Markets Continue to Ride the Downtrend

Crypto Focus: Markets Continue to Ride the Downtrend

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 27.05.2022 12:26
Another lower week traders as the top 10 and top 25 lost further gains continuing the current downtrend. If this week closes lower, that will set 8 weekly lower bars in a row. We discussed a few coins this week, emphasising continuation patterns that formed during the week. We did see some confirmations yesterday as sellers got things back on their terms in the European session. BTC fought back from lows abut sellers regained control on Friday’s session. AVAX was one of the significant coins hardest hit as it set new monthly lows. One positive is that the top 10 didn’t retest their May lows despite most hitting new weekly lows. As noted, buyers resisted the pressure with ranges and consolidations ruling before Thursday’s push lower. ETH seen to be dropping over merger frustration. Confidence drop? Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd once saw Bitcoin hitting $400,000. Now he says it’s more like $8,000. LUNA 2.0 blockchain was approved this week. After the fundamental weakness that we all saw with our own two eyes, we wish that any readers thinking about this should approach with caution and use strict risk management if they choose to go ahead. Ripple, on the other hand, has seen solid buying as price has declined. Reports say whales have been quietly accumulating the coin during this week’s declines and we can see this on the charts today. XRP is this week’s focus due to this buying. XRP caught our attention as it started edging into the positive while other coins continued to see red. Let’s take a look at the daily chart. Price continues to see support and demand from 0.38. We see two failed lows this month, and while price remains above the latter one, we will continue to look at it as a new HL. Price sits in a descending triangle pattern. A break higher, and this could be a new leg higher in the making. A break lower and we will look for the current downtrend to continue. The post Crypto Focus: Markets Continue to Ride the Downtrend appeared first on Eightcap.
COT Week 21 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed

COT Week 21 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed

Invest Macro Invest Macro 28.05.2022 19:32
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for energy was WTI Crude Oil (9,124 contracts) and Natural Gas (3,442 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (126 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (-4,422 contracts) with Gasoline (-1,373 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-24-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,711,863 0 334,761 11 -374,627 91 39,866 71 Gold 530,098 22 183,813 14 -211,947 82 28,134 37 Silver 146,456 13 14,103 26 -23,297 88 9,194 3 Copper 186,433 17 -19,633 28 19,288 73 345 27 Palladium 7,919 7 -3,472 2 3,800 98 -328 25 Platinum 65,824 32 1,485 5 -6,683 96 5,198 34 Natural Gas 1,107,496 6 -111,570 45 63,847 51 47,723 93 Brent 183,629 27 -39,289 45 37,488 56 1,801 34 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 729,900 28 188,368 72 -159,047 34 -29,321 21 Corn 1,544,885 29 427,848 85 -372,522 19 -55,326 11 Coffee 211,266 5 37,072 71 -38,484 34 1,412 4 Sugar 847,420 11 209,487 80 -255,450 20 45,963 65 Wheat 326,607 8 26,344 53 -24,339 25 -2,005 100   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 334,761 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 325,637 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.7 34.1 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.1 56.0 2.7 – Net Position: 334,761 -374,627 39,866 – Gross Longs: 422,541 584,496 86,091 – Gross Shorts: 87,780 959,123 46,225 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.5 90.7 71.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.5 -9.3 -8.4   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -39,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,422 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,867 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.8 52.6 3.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 36.2 32.2 2.7 – Net Position: -39,289 37,488 1,801 – Gross Longs: 27,144 96,551 6,828 – Gross Shorts: 66,433 59,063 5,027 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.2 55.6 33.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.0 5.9 -7.9   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -111,570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -115,012 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.8 37.4 6.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.9 31.6 2.4 – Net Position: -111,570 63,847 47,723 – Gross Longs: 230,219 413,701 74,555 – Gross Shorts: 341,789 349,854 26,832 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.1 51.0 93.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.8 -8.4 0.9   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 32,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,798 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.4 55.0 7.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.9 69.1 4.0 – Net Position: 32,425 -43,599 11,174 – Gross Longs: 72,517 170,888 23,596 – Gross Shorts: 40,092 214,487 12,422 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.1 93.4 87.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.1 6.6 16.3   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9 – Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979 – Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210 – Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,639 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 65.8 26.2 1.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 93.5 0.0 0.4 – Net Position: -9,513 9,010 503 – Gross Longs: 22,645 9,010 636 – Gross Shorts: 32,158 0 133 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 inf to 1 4.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.1 27.9 37.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.8 3.4 -5.5   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Metals Speculators raise bets for Copper and Gold after multi-week slides

COT Metals Speculators raise bets for Copper and Gold after multi-week slides

Invest Macro Invest Macro 28.05.2022 21:00
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the bounce-back in Gold and Copper speculator bets after multiple down weeks for both of these metals. Copper positions saw a small turnaround with a +4,775 contract gain this week after falling for six consecutive weeks which amounted to a total drop by -60,550 net positions from April 12th to May 17th. Copper has been particularly hard hit by the lockdowns in China and the effect that it has had on the industrial and manufacturing economy there. Copper speculator bets have now been oscillating at the lowest levels in approximately two years. Gold positions, meanwhile, rose by +8,453 contracts this week after declining in the previous five weeks and by a total of -78,927 contracts in that period. Gold bullish bets are under the +200,000 net contract level for a fourth straight week after spending the previous ten weeks above that threshold. Currently in 2022, Gold positions are averaging +221,416 weekly contracts so far compared to an average of +204,623 weekly contracts over 2021 and an average of +262,052 weekly contracts over 2020. Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were Gold (8,453 contracts) and Copper (4,775 contracts) while the markets with declining speculator bets this week were Silver (-2,011 contracts), Platinum (-718 contracts) and Palladium (-257 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each market where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-24-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,711,863 0 334,761 11 -374,627 91 39,866 71 Gold 530,098 22 183,813 14 -211,947 82 28,134 37 Silver 146,456 13 14,103 26 -23,297 88 9,194 3 Copper 186,433 17 -19,633 28 19,288 73 345 27 Palladium 7,919 7 -3,472 2 3,800 98 -328 25 Platinum 65,824 32 1,485 5 -6,683 96 5,198 34 Natural Gas 1,107,496 6 -111,570 45 63,847 51 47,723 93 Brent 183,629 27 -39,289 45 37,488 56 1,801 34 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 729,900 28 188,368 72 -159,047 34 -29,321 21 Corn 1,544,885 29 427,848 85 -372,522 19 -55,326 11 Coffee 211,266 5 37,072 71 -38,484 34 1,412 4 Sugar 847,420 11 209,487 80 -255,450 20 45,963 65 Wheat 326,607 8 26,344 53 -24,339 25 -2,005 100   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 183,813 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 175,360 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.2 24.6 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.6 64.6 3.6 – Net Position: 183,813 -211,947 28,134 – Gross Longs: 282,202 130,364 47,411 – Gross Shorts: 98,389 342,311 19,277 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.9 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.0 81.5 37.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -35.7 35.7 -18.1   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 14,103 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,114 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.1 38.9 15.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.5 54.8 9.5 – Net Position: 14,103 -23,297 9,194 – Gross Longs: 58,748 56,910 23,064 – Gross Shorts: 44,645 80,207 13,870 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.1 87.6 2.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -36.9 45.6 -46.6   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,633 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,408 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.0 53.3 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.6 42.9 7.9 – Net Position: -19,633 19,288 345 – Gross Longs: 54,130 99,318 14,993 – Gross Shorts: 73,763 80,030 14,648 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.2 72.7 27.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.9 33.4 -32.1   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -718 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,203 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.6 41.0 13.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.3 51.2 5.1 – Net Position: 1,485 -6,683 5,198 – Gross Longs: 26,052 27,002 8,533 – Gross Shorts: 24,567 33,685 3,335 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.5 95.8 34.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.0 9.0 -22.7   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,472 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,215 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.2 70.1 12.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.0 22.2 16.4 – Net Position: -3,472 3,800 -328 – Gross Longs: 729 5,555 974 – Gross Shorts: 4,201 1,755 1,302 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.7 98.1 24.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.2 13.7 -55.5   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee - 02.06.2022

Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee - 02.06.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 02.06.2022 01:00
Join trader, property investor, and bestselling author Stuart McPhee as he delivers his first Trading Week Ahead Live of June. Watch him as he starts off the week by summarising the state of the markets in Forex, Indices, and Commodities. Then prepare yourself as he shares potential trade ideas and opportunities in play for the coming week.  JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 8th June 2022! Would you like help to understand the reasons behind the moves made in this week’s markets? Join Stuart and the rest of the Trade Zone community on Wednesday 8th June, at 7PM AEST (10AM BST). Watch as he gives you his first mid-week Live Market Update of the Month. Revisiting the week’s earlier trade ideas from Monday’s Trading week Ahead, Stuart updates his insight, breaking down the developments and moves made, and predicts what may happen as the weekend approaches. Register Now At the end of the session, there will be an opportunity to direct all your market, strategy, and trade-related questions to the expert in a live Q&A. Get the answers needed to trade CFDs. The Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and Stuart McPhee this week on the Trade Zone as we explore the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee appeared first on Eightcap.
Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee - 06.06.2022

Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee - 06.06.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 05.06.2022 20:00
Join trader, property investor, and bestselling author Stuart McPhee as he delivers his first Trading Week Ahead Live of June. Watch him as he starts off the week by summarising the state of the markets in Forex, Indices, and Commodities. Then prepare yourself as he shares potential trade ideas and opportunities in play for the coming week. JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 8th June 2022! Would you like help to understand the reasons behind the moves made in this week’s markets? Join Stuart and the rest of the Trade Zone community on Wednesday 8th June, at 7PM AEST (10AM BST). Watch as he gives you his first mid-week Live Market Update of the Month. Revisiting the week’s earlier trade ideas from Monday’s Trading week Ahead, Stuart updates his insight, breaking down the developments and moves made, and predicts what may happen as the weekend approaches. Register Now At the end of the session, there will be an opportunity to direct all your market, strategy, and trade-related questions to the expert in a live Q&A. Get the answers needed to trade CFDs. The Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and Stuart McPhee this week on the Trade Zone as we explore the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee appeared first on Eightcap.
Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee - 09.06.2022

Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee - 09.06.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 09.06.2022 01:30
Join Stuart McPhee, trader, property investor, and bestselling author, as he gives you his Trading Week Ahead Live for the week. Watch him as he starts off the week by summarising the state of the markets in Forex, Indices, and Commodities. Then prepare yourself as he shares potential trade ideas and opportunities in play for the coming week.  JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 15th June 2022! Are you tired of analysing the market alone? Would you like to know how the market is taking shape this week? Register for Stuart’s mid-week Live Market Update. Join him on Wednesday 15th June, at 7PM AEST (10AM BST) as he looks back at the earlier market activity and opportunities since his Trading week Ahead. Stuart will then break down the developments and moves made and provide further insight on what may happen as the weekend approaches. Register Now At the end of the session, you will have the opportunity to direct all your market, strategy, and trade-related questions to the expert in a live Q&A. Learn what you need to trade CFDs safely. The Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and Stuart McPhee this week on the Trade Zone as we explore the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee appeared first on Eightcap.
Trading Week Ahead Live with Stuart McPhee

Trading Week Ahead Live with Stuart McPhee

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 12.06.2022 00:30
Join Stuart McPhee, trader, property investor, and bestselling author, as he gives you his Trading Week Ahead Live for the week. Watch him as he starts off the week by summarising the state of the markets in Forex, Indices, and Commodities. Then prepare yourself as he shares potential trade ideas and opportunities in play for the coming week.  JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 15th June 2022! Are you tired of analysing the market alone? Would you like to know how the market is taking shape this week? Register for Stuart’s mid-week Live Market Update. Join him on Wednesday 15th June, at 7PM AEST (10AM BST) as he looks back at the earlier market activity and opportunities since his Trading week Ahead. Stuart will then break down the developments and moves made and provide further insight on what may happen as the weekend approaches. Register Now At the end of the session, you will have the opportunity to direct all your market, strategy, and trade-related questions to the expert in a live Q&A. Learn what you need to trade CFDs safely. The Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and Stuart McPhee this week on the Trade Zone as we explore the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trading Week Ahead Live with Stuart McPhee appeared first on Eightcap.
Estimating Future Stock Returns, March 2022 Update

Estimating Future Stock Returns, March 2022 Update

David Merkel David Merkel 14.06.2022 05:51
Image credit: All images belong to Aleph Blog Well, finally the bear market… at 3/31/2002 the S&P 500 was priced to return a trice less than zero in nominal terms. After the pasting the market received today, that figure is 3.57%/year nominal (not adjusted for inflation). You would likely be better off in an ETF of 10-year single-A rated bonds yielding 4.7% — both for safety and return. I will admit that my recent experiment buying TLT has been a flop. I added to the position today. My view is that the long end of the curve is getting resistant to the belly of the curve, and thus the curve is turning into the “cap” formation, where the middle of the curve is higher than the short and long ends. This is a rare situation. Usually, the long end rallies in situations like this. The only situation more rare than this is the “cup” formation where the middle of the curve is lower than the short and long ends. I will have to update my my old post of “Goes Down Double-Speed.” We’ve been through three cycles since then — bear, bull, and now bear again. People get surprised by the ferocity of bear markets, but they shouldn’t be. People get shocked at losing money on paper, and thus the selloffs happen more rapidly. Bull markets face skepticism, and so they are slow. What are the possibilities given where the market is now? When the market is expecting 3.57% nominal, give or take one percent, what tends to happen? Most of the time, growth at these levels for the S&P 500 is pretty poor. That said, market expectations of inflation over the next ten years are well below the 4.7% you can earn on an average 10-year single-A rated corporate bond. Those expectations may be wrong — they usually are, but you can’t tell which way they will be wrong. I am still a believer in deflation, so I think current estimates of inflation are too high. There is too much debt and so monetary policy will have more punch than previously. The FOMC will panic, tighten too much, and crater some area in the financial economy that they care about, and then they will give up again, regardless of how high inflation is. They care more about avoiding a depression than inflation. They will even resume QE with inflation running hot if they are worried about the financial sector. The Fed cares about things in this order: Preserve their own necksPreserve the banks, and things like themFight inflationFund the US GovernmentPromote nominal GDP growth, though they will call it reducing labor unemployment. The Fed really doesn’t care about labor unemployment, or inequality. They are a bourgeois institution that cares about themselves and their patrons — those who are rich. I know this post is “all over the map.” My apologies. That said, we in a very unusual situation featuring high debt, high current inflation (that won’t last), war, plague, and supply-chain issues. How this exactly works out is a mystery, especially to me — but I am giving you my best guess here, for whatever it is worth. It’s worth than double what you paid for it! Full disclosure: long TLT for clients and me
Crypto Focus: Prices Sink Lower as Crypto Malaise Spreads

Crypto Focus: Prices Sink Lower as Crypto Malaise Spreads

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 17.06.2022 13:26
Hi traders, well, another week, another heavy extension lower. This week’s selling really struck home as levels not seen in a while were reached on some coins. The most selling was seen on the top this week as it lost 22% while the top 25 lost 20%. Plenty of mental pain was seen over the last week as coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum hit levels not seen since 2020. Bitcoin came very close to breaking 20K, and Ethereum just missed breaking 1K. Solana hit 25.77, just about retracing the entire 2021 move. Is it a bit late to say the market is internally sick? I feel it is a bit. Confidence looks shot, and this tends to remind me of 2017/2018. Is this different? Could we see a new rally that moves are a more sustainable speed? Or have stable coins shown a fundamental weakness in the crypto world that has drawn trust out of the crypto dream? Sorry to sound so dramatic, but if you compare Bitcoin now to Bitcoin in 2017, you will see some similarities. Sirin Labs has not followed the overall market trend as it has seen ridiculous gains over the last two days. Price looks to have been helped by news that a blockchain-backed smartphone backed by football superstar Lionel Messi is set to be released in November. The market looks to approval as price of SRNUSD has exploded by over 1200% in the last two days. The post Crypto Focus: Prices Sink Lower as Crypto Malaise Spreads appeared first on Eightcap.
Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ - 14.07.2022

Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ - 14.07.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 14.07.2022 14:45
Join us for the penultimate episode of our Trading Week Ahead Live, in partnership with the ForexAnalytix, as we look to finish off the month strongly and deliver more expert live market analysis. Watch Ryan Littlestone, market expert, Managing Director, and host of the ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’, as he takes you through the news and moves from the Asian and early European sessions, and continues to help you to plan for the upcoming week.  JOIN US THIS WEDNESDAY FOR OUR PENULTIMATE LIVE MARKET UPDATE OF THE MONTH | 20th July 2022! Secure your place to see how an expert prepares for the week’s market activity! Join Ryan as ForexAnalytix’s ‘The Flow Show’ continues to take control of the Eightcap Trade Zone and provide you with his penultimate mid-week Live Market update of the month. Watch his 30-45 minute live stream on Wednesday 13th July at 7.30PM AEDT (10.30AM BST), as he explores the news and moves, seeks trade ideas, and analyses the market progress since Monday’s Trading Week Ahead. Set a Reminder The Eightcap Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and ForexAnalytix this month on the Trade Zone as we explore more of the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ appeared first on Eightcap.
Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ - 18.07.2022

Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ - 18.07.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 17.07.2022 14:45
Join us for the penultimate episode of our Trading Week Ahead Live, in partnership with the ForexAnalytix, as we look to finish off the month strongly and deliver more expert live market analysis. Watch Ryan Littlestone, market expert, Managing Director, and host of the ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’, as he takes you through the news and moves from the Asian and early European sessions, and continues to help you to plan for the upcoming week.  JOIN US THIS WEDNESDAY FOR OUR PENULTIMATE LIVE MARKET UPDATE OF THE MONTH | 20th July 2022! Secure your place to see how an expert prepares for the week’s market activity! Join Ryan as ForexAnalytix’s ‘The Flow Show’ continues to take control of the Eightcap Trade Zone and provide you with his penultimate mid-week Live Market update of the month. Watch his 30-45 minute live stream on Wednesday 13th July at 7.30PM AEDT (10.30AM BST), as he explores the news and moves, seeks trade ideas, and analyses the market progress since Monday’s Trading Week Ahead. Set a Reminder The Eightcap Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and ForexAnalytix this month on the Trade Zone as we explore more of the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ appeared first on Eightcap.
Taming the Dollar: Assessing Powell's Hawkish Tone Amidst BRICS Expansion

Block reported earnings per share of $0.22, according to FXStreet, primary price targets for bull will be $82.60

FXStreet News FXStreet News 24.02.2023 13:58
Block reported an EPS miss for Q4. SQ stock surged 8% to $80 in Friday's premarket. Block revenue rose 14% YoY and beat Wall Street consensus. CPE release on Friday may redirect markets. Block (SQ) stock surged 8% in Friday's premarket as the market got excited over the payments firm's mixed results. The company formerly known as Square, and still headed by Twitter founder Jack Dorsey, reported fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.22 on revenue of $4.65 billion. Wall Street had expected adjusted EPS of $0.30 on revenue of $5.59 billion. Still shares rose as the guidance for Q1 was in line with Wall Street expectations. SQ stock may be unable to contend with the market's reaction to new inflation data on Friday however. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for January comes out at 8:30 AM EST and will likely trigger a broad sell-off if inflation remains above projections. Current consensus is for MoM core PCE at 0.4% and YoY core PCE at 4.3%. Likewise, if inflation comes in lower than expected, then expect SQ to retain its heights in the premarket and possibly even trader higher. Block stock news: Subscription business steals spotlight The high point of the earnings release, and likely the reason for the spike in Block stock, was the subscription segment. Services and subscription revenue came in at $1.31 billion, up nearly 70% over the previous year's period. Gross profit for that segment arrived at $1.07 billion. Block saw gross payment volumes of $53.16 billion, which climbed 15% YoY. Transaction revenue of $1.47 billion grew 13% YoY. Cash App produced $2.86 billion in revenue – 12% higher than a year ago. Much of that revenue came from sales of Bitcoin however. Cash App's gross profit of $848 million was much higher than the $518 million seen the year ago period. Read next: The BoJ is hoping that the government’s massive stimulus package will help bring down inflation| FXMAG.COM "There are three principles guiding our investment framework," said Chairman and President Jack Dorsey. "Number one, ensure our investments are focused on customer retention and growth; number two, account for ongoing cost of the business, including stock-based compensation; and number three, utilize industry standard conventions that are simple to communicate and to understand." Dorsey said Block would focus on keeping gross profit retention above 100% and following the Rule of 40 for adjusted operating income. The Rule of 40 in the case of Block would mean the company requires gross profit growth and adjusted operating margin taken together to sum to a figure of 40 or above. Source: App Economy Insights Block stock forecast Block stock was already up about 15% year to date, so the stock has benefited from January's rally already. This makes it tougher to see SQ shares continuing to rally all that much. Until earnings, Block stock had been in a downswing. Now the recent floor at $71.90 becomes the new support level to count on. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator still shows SQ stock in a bearish crossover, so this makes it less likely for the rally to stick. The primary price targets for bulls will be $82.60, which harkens back to a year ago in February when it worked as support. Above there the February 2 high from earlier this month at $90 will be the next barrier standing in the way. SQ daily chart
Analyst Favorites: Sunrun, Block, and Nvidia Lead the Pack Among Saxo's Top Traded Stocks with 17% Upside Potential

Analyst Favorites: Sunrun, Block, and Nvidia Lead the Pack Among Saxo's Top Traded Stocks with 17% Upside Potential

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 13.09.2023 08:27
The top traded stocks among Saxo clients are also analyst favourites with a median upside from current price to price targets of 17%. In today's equity note we focus on Sunrun, Block, and Nvidia which are all three darlings of analysts. Sunrun is a US residential solar panel and battery storage company that has not lost its faith from analysts despite a share price that is down 44% this year and elevated default risk due to high debt levels and lack of profitability. Block is struggling with profitability and the recent outlook from Dutch competitor Adyen has soured investor sentiment on payment stocks. Nvidia is on everyone's mind as the company is the main beneficiary of the gold rush into generative AI.   Key points in this equity note Sunrun has the highest upside potential according to analysts among Saxo’s 30 most traded US equities. For this to come true, Sunrun must quickly increase its profitability. Block has recently seen their 12-month forward revenue estimates been raised by analysts despite the recent miss on volume from Adyen casting dark clouds over the entire payments industry. Nvidia remains the darling of Saxo clients, analysts and investors as the gold rush into AI means Nvidia is selling GPU at an insane rate. Nvidia’s 12-month revenue estimate has been raised 42% by analysts over the past three months.   Saxo’s most held and traded US equities In this equity note we present a table of useful information on the 30 most held and traded US equities sorted on the difference between analysts target and the current price. A general observation is that the median upside to analyst targets is around 17% with Sunrun being the most bullish case seen by analysts with the price target sitting 146% above the current price. 12-month forward revenue estimates have not changed much for this group over the past three months except for companies such as Block (+5.7%), Nvidia (41.8%), and Meta (+5.6%) reflecting the AI growth wave and better than expected developments in e-commerce and online advertising.      
MSFT Stock Price Analysis: Bearish Signals Point to Potential Decline

Adyen's Miss Casts Shadow on Block and the Payments Industry

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 13.09.2023 08:29
Adyen has put Block and the entire payments industry into trouble The payments industry was one of the big winning themes of the pandemic and growth looked sure for decades to come inflating valuations to insane levels in late 2021. Since then, as a function of lower growth and higher interest rates, valuations have come down hard. Investors have gone from valuing Block at 5.6x enterprise value to sales in 2019 to 1.6x in 2023 reflecting lower expectations for growth but also operating margin as the industry has matured and technology advantages have converged among industry players. Adyen latest big miss on volume and operating margin was a big hit to the industry and has raised questions about whether payment companies outside American Express, Mastercard and Visa will ever be as profitable as the big three. Block, formerly Square, generated revenue of $19.7bn in the last 12 months with EBITDA of $225mn (1.1% operating margin) and thus it is quite clear that investors want to see the operating margin expand. The industry narrative has changed to that of profitability instead of high revenue growth at all costs. Analysts remain bullish on Block with an upside of 55% to their price target. Nvidia remains center of attention for analysts and investors The AI hype and outrageous growth that Nvidia is experiencing have caught everyone’s attention in equity markets this year. 12-month forward revenue estimates are up 42% over the past three months which is something we have never observed before for a $1.1trn market value company. Not only is Nvidia growing fast it is also highly profitable (33% operating margin and expanding). Analysts are also maintaining their positive outlook with a price target 43% above the current price despite the strong performance already this year. As we have noted in a recent equity note, the key risk for Nvidia shareholders is that the huge demand increase is driven a lot by the long tail of VC-backed AI startups that have gone all in on the gold rush. For Nvidia’s growth to continue over the coming year it is important that this gold rush into AI turns into commercial ideas that can be monetized on a grand scale. Adobe earnings Thursday after the US market close might give a clue of whether this is possible.

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