black friday

This coming Friday (25.11) is Black Friday, which is the colloquial term for the Friday after Thanksgiving in the United States. It traditionally marks the start of the pre-Christmas shopping season in the United States. Historically, it has kicked off one of the best months for retailers. However, let's examine how the markets have reacted to this time and how this year may unfold. Historical market behaviour According to data from the seasonax platform, on average for the period from 15 to 30 November for the last 37 years (since 1984), the main S&P 500 index (US500) has risen by an average of 0.64% (24 times) which would give a historical performance of as much as 63%. For the uptrend periods, the average gain was 4.44%, and the average loss was -5.55%. The maximum increase was in 2012 and amounted to approximately 15%, while the largest loss occurred in 1987 and amounted to -13%. Interestingly enough, that same year we saw the market collapse later called 'Black Monday'. Comparing this to the later period from the beginning of December to the end of the year for the same years, the index grew by an average of 3.69% (an efficiency of 64%). The average increase was 8.79% and the average loss was -5%. The maximum increase we could see was in 1991, which was 23.53%, and the largest loss of -12% was seen in 1996.  It seems that historically for the stock market this period may have been one of the best for investment. Given the data presented and the current price of the S&P 500 index at 4,000 points, we could see a change in price by the end of the year with about 64% probability to levels around 4148 points, with an average increase to around 4352 points and an average decrease around 3800 points. Source: Conotoxia MT5, US500, Weekly What can we expect in the current year? More often than not, the declines in these periods were during the year when there were financial market crises. For example, we could see falls of more than 5% in 2007 (real estate crisis), 2002 and 2003 (years after the "DOTCOM" crisis), 1986 (Black Monday gold market collapse). The best periods almost always seemed to be linked to a good performance year for the companies. We saw increases above 15% in 1999 (the year before the 'DOTCOM' crisis), 1990 (the year before the severe US drought), or 1985.  It seems that with the current situation of rising interest rates, high inflation, or falling corporate earnings, it would  be hard to expect more positive scenarios. It seems that customers this year, faced with rising borrowing costs or rising product prices, may not seem as willing to spend as much as they did in times of prosperity. Therefore, we might see little change in the index or even declines.  Grzegorz Dróżdż, Junior Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75,21% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.    

Black Friday is almost here, so salers are getting ready for customers looking for real bargains. However, it's still not the end of hard-knock time for consumers as high interest rates and inflation worry buyers, investors and companies. We asked Saxo's Steen Jakobsen for a few words on the ongoing events.       To what extent could high rates and inflation impair Black Friday effect?   It's a two-way street, clearly consumers have shown they still have excess saving from the Pandemic, but also recently that inflation/high rates will in the future slow spending down, however for this Black Friday it seems retailers is more in need of "moving products" than securing price, which may mean good volume sales but less revenue.   Core Durable Goods Orders and Building Permits are released this week - how crucial are these prints ahead of the December Fed meeting?   All data is important as Fed has moved to "observing the impact of recent hikes", but overall the two data points which constitute 90% of the FED "data dependency" is employment and inflation measures.   Read next: Fed interest rate hikes predicted to slow down, Bob Iger takes over Disney for the second time, US mortgage payments soaring| FXMAG.COM

Shopify reported sales of $3.36 billion from its vendors on Black Friday. This was an increase of 17% over 2021. SHOP stock has added more than 6% in Friday’s premarket. China is dealing with the anti-covid protests that are hurting the NASDAQ.   Shopify (SHOP) advanced 6.4% in Monday’s premarket after news of strong sales from Black Friday impressed the market. Global sales topped $3.36 billion on the United States' top retail shopping day of the year, but interestingly a large subsection of the sales came from abroad. While SHOP stock is ahead 6.4% at $39.15 about 30 minutes before the open, the rest of the market is more somber. Anti-covid regulation protests have engulfed China, and markets are selling off over worries that their longevity may produce a material hit to US companies that have production contracts in China. NASDAQ futures are off 0.9% on Monday. Already Bloomberg is reporting that Apple (AAPL) is likely to miss its iPhone production goals for November by 6 million units. Tesla (TSLA) stock has also lost more than 2% in the premarket based on worries over meeting its production targets as well despite the fact that it will begin deliveries of electric semi-trailer trucks in the coming week. Shopify stock news: Black Friday revenue jumps 17% from last year As 2022 has witnessed the United States go in and out of recession and big box retailers like Target (TGT) deal with customers' inflation fatigue, many observers thought Black Friday might be a letdown this year. However, Shopify’s thousands of mom-and-pop ecommerce retailers did not get the memo. Instead, Shopify saw Black Friday sales jump 17% from last year and even 19% on a constant currency basis. "Black Friday Cyber Monday has grown into a full-on shopping season,” said Harley Finkelstein, Shopify’s president. “The weekend that started it all is still one of the biggest commerce events of the year, and our merchants have broken Black Friday sales records again. Our merchants have built beloved brands with loyal communities that support them. This weekend, we’re celebrating the incredible power of entrepreneurship on a global stage.” Shopify said its ecommerce partners sold $3.5 million per minute worth of merchandise around noon on Friday. Many Americans take the day off after Thanksgiving on Thursday. Besides the United States, Shopify said a large percentage of sales came from Canada and the United Kingdom. In a statement Shopify said the average checkout cart amounted to $102.31, and that apparel & accessories, health & beauty, and home & garden were the top product categories for customers. In its list of top trading ideas for 2023, Bank of America said on Monday that shorting US tech made the list. The "old leadership, still over-owned, era of QE is no longer, era of globalization no longer, plus peak penetration and regulation risks,” the analysts wrote. Shopify stock forecast Before this sudden bout of good news, SHOP stock had been in a clear sell-off. Shopify stock rose from October 13 to November 15 before its recent downturn. Shopify stock has made it back to the shoulders of the opening price for the sessions on either side of the shooting star candlestick on November 15. That type of candlestick that falls off its high, early session price to close lower than its open (in the shape of an upside down hammer) is a major bearish sign, and that is exactly what occurred over the following two weeks. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also duly turned over, and the 9-day moving average in the past week had begun dropping back closer to its 21-day counterpart. Now SHOP bulls can only focus on $41.73 – the high from the November 15 shooting star. Based on SHOP price action in both mid-November and August, shares will likely face resistance between $40 and that higher price level. Beyond there Shopify stock briefly made its way to $45.43 on August 11 but was immediately pushed down harshly from a wave of profit-taking. Support might be found between the 21-day moving average and the ascending bottom trend line that started in mid-October. This is an area roughly between $35.50 and $37.50. SHOP 1-day chart

Our editors asked Swissquote's Ipek Ozkardeskaya about her thoughts about this week's data, which seems to be crucial ahead of decisions of Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. What's more, we're astonished by Black Friday results which are said to near $10bn, so we asked Ipek for a comment on this case as well.   The ECB, nor any other central bank, can't choose to escape recession over fighting inflation   The ECB, nor any other central bank, can't choose to escape recession over fighting inflation, because inflation is toxic for an economy in the long run, and should be dealt with rapidly to avoid it from becoming structural. Therefore, if ECB policymakers should make a decision between fighting inflation and avoiding recession, they will likely choose fighting inflation. They could however adjust the speed and the force of their action according to the economic conditions. in this respect, recession could slow down the pace of tightening but won't stop it.   Read next: Investors also seem to have become less sensitive to the Ukraine War, which was a significant driver of crude in the first half of 2022 says Finimize's Luke Suddards | FXMAG.COM    This week's prints stand for the last data pack ahead of December Fed decision, supposing they came as a surprise would Fed go for a 75bp rate?   Probably not. The Fed has been clear enough in its communication that they are not done fighting inflation. However, because there is a delay between the monetary policy action and the economy's reaction, the Fed officials prefer taking smaller steps while keeping the topside open for higher rates. Therefore, I wouldn't expect the Fed to surprise with another 75bp hike in December. Unfavourable economic data - stronger-than-expected jobs, high-than-expected inflation - would rather be felt for the Fed's end-rate expectations. For now, it is around 5-5.25%.       When it comes to the Black Friday sales, there are two positive forces that explain the record figures   Despite the record Black Friday sales, retailers broadly reported a rise in inventories and slowing discretionary spending ahead of the peak US shopping season. When it comes to the Black Friday sales, there are two positive forces that explain the record figures. 1. Higher inflation pumps up the final numbers. 2. It is possible that people chose to take advantage of promotions as their purchasing power weakened by inflation. This may explain why we had record Black Friday sales this year.    But even if we factor in inflation there is still be growth in this year's holiday consumption.   This is not necessarily great news for the Fed, which targets a consumer-led recession to slow down inflation. Therefore, the US record pre-holiday sales, combined with the strong monthly retail sales data hint that the US consumer demand has not weakened enough to tame inflation. This means that the Fed would only feel more comfortable pushing its rates higher and get the slow down it is looking for.

Some time ago we had a great opportunity to ask FXStreet to comment on commodities, American consumers and NFP. Here’s what we’ve heard from Yohay Elam. Brent crude oil nears $80 at the actual start of heating season, is China's covid situation affecting it to that extent or there's another 'hidden' factor and what can we expect till the end of the year? Yohay Elam (FXStreet): Fears of a US recession have been weighing on energy prices, but I see several reasons for a significant bounce. First, China's reopening is far from being fully priced in markets. Beijing is relaxing its draconian measures and at a dizzying pace, and higher demand expectations are set to boost demand. Second, Current low prices may boost the US government's purchase of crude to replenish its strategic reserves, which it has been depleting to mitigate the impact of Russia's war in Ukraine. Third, supply remains tight as a result of under-investment in recent years. Fourth, and as mentioned in the question, winter has arrived, and with it higher demand for energy. All in all, I see prices rising from the current abyss. Could NFP save the dollar from a quite long downtrend? Dollar index has been losing since ca. 7 weeks, is correction coming to USD? The robust Nonfarm Payrolls report – and especially the upbeat wages data – helped stabilize the Dollar but do not serve as a game-changer. The #1 market mover in recent months has been the CPI report, and the next one is due shortly. If Core CPI rises by 0.6% or more, it would trigger a massive turnaround in favor of the Dollar. A lower figure would resume the Greenback's downtrend. Read next: Migration Of Sports From Traditional Television To Streaming Is Chugging Ahead- The NFL Sunday Ticket On YouTube| FXMAG.COM According to Adobe, Black Friday sales soared $9.12bn despite headwinds like high inflation, rising interest rates, recession fears and uncertain geopolitical outlook - what made consumers buy goods so willingly? Americans still have excessive savings from the pandemic era, and were clearly delighted to see price cuts – partially related to high inventories and the unsnarling of supply chains. Recession fears, uncertainty and political polarization have negatively impacted sentiment, but not actual shopping. There is a gap between what Americans say about the state of the broad economy and what they feel and see in their community. Moving forward, I think consumption will ease, but not collapse, staving off a recession in the US.

Last week we got back to Yohay Elam's commentary covering various assets and market events. Today, we publish Ivan Cummins' opinion on this year's black friday which turned out to be suprisingly good. According to Adobe, Black Friday sales soared $9.12bn despite headwinds like high inflation, rising interest rates, recession fears and uncertain geopolitical outlook - what made consumers buy goods so willingly? Ivan Brian (FXStreet): Consumer spending is high while sentiment is low. Savings levels are high and credit card debt was also low. Credit card debt is now rising but from low levels. I expect consumer spending to remain strong for most of 2023 with savings not running out until near the end of the year, this will then likely be replaced by more credit card debt to maintain spending during the holiday season. Overall the US consumer is to remain strong. But making 2024 likely a worse scenario for consumption. Consumers spent because they have access to cash and or credit, it has yet to bite. Read next: India’s Investing In Program For The Green Hydrogen Industry | Covid Situation In China Is Getting Serious| FXMAG.COM