bitcoin chart

Summary:

  • Rising inflation and hawkish reserve banks left investors risk averse.
  • No particular news driving the stock price turn around for the market.

Read next: Stock Market Showing Signs Of Slight Recovery Amidst U.S CPI Report Release 

Bitcoins prices crashing

The price of Bitcoin crashed almost 7% during the trading day on Thursday. The reason for this seems to be the same as what is happening with investors on the wider financial market, investors are turning risk averse and selling off their Bitcoin holdings in the wake of economic insecurity. The current crash is dropped lower than the value during the crash in July 2021.

Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM

The Fed’s increasing interest rates was an initial driver for investor sentiment to change bearish, the increasing interest rates made it more expensive to make bets on the financial markets. Investors

Bitcoin’s bullish time cycle alignment

Bitcoin’s bullish time cycle alignment

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 22.12.2021 09:32
Typically, various time frames perform better or worse for a trader at different times due to cycle overlaps. Having multiple trades on simultaneously from different time frames is typically an excellent hedge. This way, one can catch the specific trading instruments’ various shorter and longer-term trends. BTC in US-Dollar, Quarterly Chart, patience pays: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 21st, 2021. Typical mistakes are either an early entry or a chased trade and getting out too early of a steady trend. These behaviors have to do with pleasure-seeking and pain avoidance motivation. With the chart above in mind, most pass if presented with an opportunity where rewards are paid out in ten years. Wealth preservation, which we are after, should have nothing else in mind—long-term protection with a low-risk profile and a solid performance. The chart presented above is our most conservative view of the future for bitcoin, both in price and time. Meaning, it would come as no surprise to us if much higher price levels are achieved in a much shorter period of time. Yet, we tend to estimate typically very conservative to keep emotions like greed in check. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin’s bullish time cycle alignment: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 21st, 2021. The percentage gain numbers of the previous chart assume the worst possible purchase price, which is an all-time high. If we purchase bitcoin right now or prices below recent trading prices, these numbers already drastically change. Meaning, while our pain-avoiding emotional motivators direct us in declining markets to sell, it is principle-based if you have statistically high probability models over the long term to instead think about purchasing bitcoin. As indicated in the weekly chart above, we see a window of opportunity for entries based on our quarterly chart exit time horizon. Scenario A, the more aggressive position-taking, is in a process already at the release of this chart book. Nevertheless, there is a probability that prices could decline as far as US$40,000, and low-risk entry spots within the price decline to such lower levels would be as a scenario B welcome just as well. Should prices penetrate below the US$40,000 level, a regrouping would be required before new entries could be discussed. BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Position building in motion: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of December 21st, 2021. Assuming entries here in our entry zone between US$47,000 and US$40,000 and exits in our first chart of this chart book, a bitcoin investment next to be an insurance play against troubled fiat currencies could provide a profit near a thousand percent. The daily chart above has marked days and entry prices of three trades we posted live in our free Telegram channel in the last five days. We took partial profits based on our quad exit strategy within hours of entry. Consequently, eliminating the original stop risk of less than a percent to zero risk. With a risk-reward ratio of 1:1000, we find it reasonable to sit through a few years with the remainder position size for sizeable rewards. Bitcoin’s bullish time cycle alignment: Some of the worst mistakes in history were made based on the shortsightedness not to think long term. As creative and inventive a species, we cannot help but follow emotions that often do not have our own best interest in mind. One such emotion is instant gratification. It seems almost a burden to wait for being rewarded patiently. Yet, it is this discipline one needs to be a successful trader. First, you need the patience to not always be too early with one’s entry in a trade not to catch a falling knife. Then you require the patience not to chase a trade if you missed it.  Instead, wait for a later chance to get another low-risk entry spot or to pass up on the trade altogether. And foremost, once finding yourself in a good trade, it is imperative to sit on your hands and let the trade mature to full profits. The higher the time frame of your play is, the harder this test of your patience becomes.Remedies are good planning, consistent reviewing of a plan, rigorously following it, and employing an exit strategy suitable to your psychology (see our quad exit strategy). Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 21st, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin and ether defend significant levels

Bitcoin and ether defend significant levels

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.12.2021 09:18
The cryptocurrency market has gained another 1.8% over the past 24 hours, bringing its total capitalisation to $2.28 trillion. The index has been choking on growth for the past three weeks at the $2.3 mark, so further rise promises to strengthen the bullish case, at least in the short term. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index has jumped to 45. This is a fear territory, but very close to neutral territory. Judging by the continued demand for risky assets in traditional markets and the positive performance of cryptocurrencies as of this morning, this index could well continue to rise at the end of the day. Bitcoin is trading near $49,000, returning to the highs of the last week and a half, adding 1.3% in 24 hours and 2.3% over seven days. Technically, the first cryptocurrency managed to close noticeably above its simple 200-day moving average, which could spur demand from those buyers who were waiting for the battle for that important level to unfold. The price of Ether is above $4K, which is also a positive signal for the entire crypto market. The situation looks like Ether staying above $4K and Bitcoin staying above the 200-day average is fuelling buying among smaller altcoins. Keeping key currencies above psychological marks fuels hopes that the market has not switched to bearish mode. On the other hand, we remain wary of the crypto market outlook, noting that Bitcoin and Ether look like clinging to meaningful levels. The bearish scenario can only be cancelled if growth develops from current levels.
January 18th, 2022, Crypto Chartbook

January 18th, 2022, Crypto Chartbook

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 19.01.2022 15:22
Bitcoin´s New Year’s resolution BTC in US-Dollar, Quarterly Chart, trending up: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of January 18th, 2022. Where often the rubber meets the road is accountability. Yes, you technically could trade off a screen the size of your phone and do so in your underwear from home. That doesn’t mean this will lead to profits. More likely, success will come if you tell your spouse that you will only trade for real money once a significant sample size of paper trading shows consistent returns on your well-defined statistical edge. Holding yourself accountable to a person close to you is critical. This way, you won’t slack on facing your shortcomings. There is a thin line between gambling and being a victim of nourishing scarcity emotions and having a well-defined trading system executed with discipline to extract profits from the markets over larger sample sizes consistently. The quarterly chart above shows how bitcoin has been trending up over the last five years. As much as last year’s final quarter was profit-taking after all-time new highs, the price seems to stabilize near the regression channel midline (blue line), which typically acts as support. We find these accentuated retracements typical for bitcoin and are looking for a possible turning point towards a new leg up in the larger time frames. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Bitcoins New Year’s resolution: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of January 18th, 2022. Patience should be a key element in any such system. Patience to wait for the good trades that have the potential to provide upside moves three to five times greater than the necessary risk taken to try out the trade. What also needs to be thoroughly checked is not to be underfunded and that there is no pressure to make a living off trading right away. If these rules are undervalued, ruin is typical since trading psychology has particular requirements to execute a profitable methodology appropriately. Therefore, this includes that the money at stake lost cannot influence a drastic change in living. When undertaking a venture like this, it is advisable to not increase pressure by spreading the word to friends and colleagues since typical learning curve time frames are somewhere between 3 to 7 years, and the additional stress to defend one’s venture is not helpful. This behavior also supports the necessary feature later as a trader to be highly flexible in changing one’s mind about the market’s price direction. Something outsiders might find foolish. Now zooming into a lower time frame, the weekly chart shows a similar picture of opportunity. Prices are trading at the mean. A mathematical “neutral zone.” As the white ellipse in the past shows, for bitcoin, this is a support zone of prices where bitcoin turned after a temporary sideways trading period. Similar trading behavior is unfolding right now, supporting our bullish tone. BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, possible entry zone: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of January 18th, 2022. If you are already a consistently winning trader, setting the tally to zero at the beginning of the year like this can be very helpful. You start fresh. Consequently, you trade a bit smaller and are very focused and diligent in building a new winnings nest egg that provides for free market play at the beginning of the year. Starting the beginning of the new year supports confidence that no matter what might be faced, if somewhere an exchange is open, you can make a living even after hardships and, as such, refreshes the confidence needed for proper execution throughout the year. Not resting on one’s laurels this way keeps trading exciting and the moral up to par towards the required skill set. The above daily chart tries to identify low-risk entry zones with our typical top-down approach, now zooming even closer. We aim further to stack the odds for a possible low-risk entry spot.After four swing legs down, prices are trading in a congestion zone (green square). We find this an area worthwhile to be on the lookout for a possible low-risk entry. This daily time frame entry could mature to a higher time frame turning point. Our quad exit strategy can capture profits for a more significant developing trend. Bitcoins New Year’s resolution: Trading needs to be treated like a business. A high percentage of businesses fail due to a lack of a business plan. In trading, a clear set of rules is even more critical due to the counterintuitive nature of the markets. In short, one can’t shoot from the hip in this profession. You get nowhere with your gut feeling. The biggest obstacle in trading is that traders underestimate how long it takes before success settles in. Consequently, backup plans are an excellent way to extend one’s learning curve. We also find a great way to overcome obstacles and accept when things go wrong consistently that a new rule is possibly missing.  The business of trading has many components, and as such, it is helpful to seek the outside counsel of a professional when needed. You find good support through the learning process in our free telegram channel within a community of professionals and newbies alike who provide answers to your questions. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|January 18th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
NASDAQ: NFLX Stock Price Decreased, Crypto Market Changed

NASDAQ: NFLX Stock Price Decreased, Crypto Market Changed

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 21.01.2022 12:35
Yesterday’s Q4 earnings report from Netflix was seen as a major disappointment with forecasts pointing to weaker subscriber growth amid rising competition, particularly when compared to the first part of 2021. While the company referred to increased competition as a major cause of this uncertainty, rising prices of plans may also be deterring some customers who now have access to a wide range of streaming services including Disney+ and HBO Max. The company’s stock dropped around 20% in after hours trading and could be set to begin today's trading in the $400 area - the lowest level since May 2020. Despite there being a general risk-off mood in markets, which has seen many other stocks also retreat, it remains to be seen if Netflix will manage to rebound or if it will continue heading lower. Crypto markets tank as risk-off moods dominate While it may appear that the crypto market has taken a big hit today, with the majority of top 100 coins down by around 10%, it is important to note that the general sentiment across markets is quite negative when relating to risk assets. This is in part due to the increasing prospects of fiscal and monetary policy changes from central banks, in particular the FED, which would remove a significant amount of liquidity from the market and that ultimately could lead to a significant fund reallocation. Furthermore, while we have seen major cryptos like Ethereum and Bitcoin drop below key levels like $3000 and $40,000, and reach the lowest level in several months they are both testing key support areas which previously preceded significant upward moves. While the global situation may be slightly different, it is worth keeping in mind that recent negative performance is not limited to the cryptocurrency market but is being seen across many different types of asset classes, albeit on a somewhat smaller scale. UK Retails sales decline and worry investors The 3,7% decline in retail sales illustrated by today’s report continues to indicate rising prices and economic uncertainty as some of the key reasons for the slowing down of sales. Despite Non-food stores sales falling noticeably in December, food store sales managed to only drop by 1% and retail sales as a whole were able to remain above pre pandemic levels. As the situation grows more uncertain and as inflation continues to be a key factor, it remains unclear whether central banks and governments will decide to take action or if they will wait and see if things improve naturally.
Can We Call It A Crypto Crash? Bitcoin Below $40k And Ether Below $3k

Can We Call It A Crypto Crash? Bitcoin Below $40k And Ether Below $3k

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 21.01.2022 09:44
The crypto market capitalisation fell to 1.83 trillion, losing 7.3% in the past 24 hours. As we had feared, the selloff was triggered by sharply negative sentiment in US equity markets and intensified by the breakdown of critical support levels. Bitcoin retreated to the $38.8K area. The amplitude of the decline from the peak at the start of the regular session in New York to the bottom at the opening of Asia exceeds 12%. Sellers have proven unbreakable (so far) the upper boundary of the downward price channel that has dominated bitcoin since mid-November. Another worrying fact is that Bitcoin's share has risen to 40.2% of the crypto's total cap. The implication is that investors are breaking out of altcoins even more sharply, as they are less confident in the ability of smaller coins to withstand the titans' fall. Without a sharp intraday reversal (chances for this are minimal), we can confidently expect an acceleration of long position liquidation in Bitcoin and further drawdowns. There is nowhere to look for support until the $30-33K area on the chart. Ether has given up support at $3K, quickly pulling back into the consolidation area of late September, ending up near $2.85K. The intensification of the selloff makes $2K the target of the initial downside wave. Earlier in 2021, the area of 30K for Bitcoin and near 2K for Ether was the bottom of a deep correction. This then attracted buyers, and the total market managed to rewrite highs. In that drawdown, the total capitalisation of cryptocurrencies was down to $1.2 trillion. If the first two cryptocurrencies were targeting lows last summer, it is logical to expect the entire market to return to the lows of that time. But then the external backdrop was highly favourable, as the US market was returning to growth with drawdowns in the 5% range, having already crossed that barrier earlier last year. The continued negative backdrop in equities sets up a deeper pullback in crypto. The crypto market's capitalisation could potentially shrink by half to the $830-900bn area before we see a new wave of long-term buyer inflows. For Bitcoin, this suggests the potential for a drop to 20k.
XAUUSD Chart And Bitcoin Charts - BTC/USDT And Bitcoin Vs Gold Chart

XAUUSD Chart And Bitcoin Charts - BTC/USDT And Bitcoin Vs Gold Chart

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 08.03.2022 10:21
Bitcoins image boost   In times of war, unfortunately, other news is quickly overshadowed temporarily. Gold, monthly chart, cup and handle: Gold in US Dollar, monthly chart as of March 7th, 2022. One significant factor is the gold bullish monthly chart with its cup and handle price formation. The larger time frame of the related market plays a substantial role in inter-market analysis. Gold, leading wealth preservation “insurance” for your money in inflationary times, should be on a bitcoin trader/investor’s radar. We find a bullish tone in gold to support possible bitcoin price increases.     Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, monthly chart, bitcoin is cheap: Bitcoin versus Gold in USD, monthly chart as of March 8th, 2022. An additional welcoming factor can be found in the monthly chart of the bitcoin relationship towards gold. Presently, around 20 ounces buy you one bitcoin, while in the last quarter of last year, the same bitcoin cost you instead 37 ounces of gold. Consequently, those who have exited a fiat currency system or those who constructively hedge their wealth preservation portfolio might have a greater focus on bitcoin currently as on gold; it is cheaper. Bitcoin, weekly chart, still a couple weeks: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 8th, 2022. A look at a weekly bitcoin chart shows temporary weakness in a general up slope near an entry zone. The last two weeks provided for substantial income-producing trading through partial profit-taking. Bitcoin had delivered a 32% range from US$34,322 to US$45,400. Unfortunately, there was no directional follow-through beyond this point, and bitcoin has yet again retraced substantially. Currently, Bitcoin is hovering right above a low-risk entry zone again, and we are hawkishly looking out for low-risk entries. A look into the past shows that it took bitcoin ten weeks to turn around in scenario A. Our timing prognosis is another two weeks now before we see possibly fast advancements. Bitcoins image boost: Some think of chocolate when thinking of Switzerland, and indeed this news is sweet to the bitcoin community. Bitcoins’ last step to gain momentum is widespread adoption. News, like the 10% increase in GDP since El Salvador’s declaration of bitcoin being accepted legal tender, is impressive. Yet, it is still met with doubt due to either political or economic situations of countries that have adopted bitcoin so far. With a central money mecca now representing progressive bitcoin use and old history of a conservative, strong financial stability image backing such behavior, widespread mass doubt can be swayed towards more bitcoin adaptation.   Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 8th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Podcast: Yen drop is outstripping fundamentals | Saxo Bank

Bitcoin Price Back on The Rise, Consumer Spending In The UK Falls In Light Of Inflation And The US Dollar Continues to Strengthen

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.04.2022 10:48
Summary: Bitcoin prices are increasing today after breaking support levels overnight. With consumer spending decreasing in the UK, the GBP is struggling to fight against the US dollar strengthening. With Australian inflation continuing to rise, the currency is weakening against and already strong USD. BTC/USD prices are increasing despite bearish market sentiment. We know that Bitcoin was the world's first digital currency and that its price is very volatile, making it historically popular for speculating traders. On Friday the price of Bitcoin dropped below $40 000, this reflected the midpoint of a 3 month long trade range. The price of bitcoin has increased by 5.55% since this morning. While market sentiment remains uncertain, current rises in the price of Bitcoin will likely be limited. As of this morning news broke that U.S Fidelity will allow employees to put Bitcoin into their 401(k) retirement savings accounts starting later this year, giving more people access to cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin Price Chart Read next: US Dollar (USD) Continues To Trump Euro (EUR) And British Pound (GBP). EUR Fails To Get Boost Post Macron Election Victory - Good Morning Forex!  GBP Weakening against the USD. Market sentiment for this currency pair is bearish at the moment, the USD has been strengthening against the GBP over the past week. This strengthening comes with investor confidence being restored in the US dollar as a result of the Fed increasing yields for the 7th week in a row. The GBP inflation is causing a problem for this currency, as consumer spending decreases, the economy can expect a knock. GBP/USD Price Chart AUD Weakens against the USD. Since the market opened this morning, investor sentiment for the AUD/USD pair is bearish. Yesterday the price of the AUD/USD pair hit its lowest since March. This comes with the USD strengthening, once again thanks to rising U.S yields as well as the negative news out of China causing investors to short riskier assets. In addition, the AUD is struggling post inflation expectation announcements, the inflation is expected to increase for 2 consecutive quarters. Inlight of this, the USD is benefiting hugely from the AUD weakening. AUD/USD Price Chart Read next: U.S Yields Expecting Further Increases!?, Announcement Of PMIs Prelims For The Private Sector - FOREX Today  Sources: dailyfx.com, finance.yahoo.com
Week Ahead – Volatile Markets

Volatile Markets: US Dollar (USD), Euro (EUR), British Pound (GBP), Russian Ruble (RUB)

Ed Moya Ed Moya 07.05.2022 14:21
Every asset class has been on a rollercoaster ride as investors are watching central bankers all around globe tighten monetary policy to fight inflation.  Financial conditions are starting to tighten and the risks of slower growth are accelerating.   The focus for the upcoming week will naturally be a wrath of Fed speak and the latest US CPI data which is expected to show inflation decelerated sharply last month. A sharper decline with prices could vindicate Fed Chair Powell’s decision to remove a 75 basis-point rate increase at the next couple policy meetings.   A close eye will also stay on energy markets which has shown traders remain convinced that the market will remain tight given OPEC+ will stick to their gradual output increase strategy and as US production struggles to ramp up despite rising rig counts.  Energy traders will continue to watch for developments with the EU nearing a Russian energy ban. US inflation expected to drop Oil rallies as EU nears Russian energy ban Gold remains vulnerable if bond market selloff accelerates US Market volatility following the FOMC decision won’t ease up anytime soon as traders will look to the next inflation report to see if policymakers made a mistake in removing even more aggressive rate hikes off the table over the next couple of meetings.  The April CPI report is expected to show further signs that peak inflation is in place.  The month-over-month reading is expected to decline from 1.2% to 0.2%, while the year-over-year data is forecasted to decrease from 8.5% to 8.1%. The producer prices report comes out the next day and is also expected to show pricing pressure are moderating.  On Friday, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for the month of May should show continued weakness. The upcoming week is filled with Fed speak that could show a divide from where Fed Chair Powell stands with tightening at the June and July meetings.  On Tuesday, Fed’s Williams, Barkin, Waller, Kashkari, Mester, and Bostic speak.  Wednesday will have another appearance by Bostic. Thursday contains a speech from the Fed’s Daly.  On Friday, Fed’s Kashkari and Mester speak.   UK The Bank of England delivered a 0.25% rate hike at this week’s meeting. This brings the benchmark rate to 1.00%, its highest since 2009. At the same time, the BoE painted a grim economic picture at the meeting, as it revised its inflation forecast to above 10% and warned of a recession. The UK releases GDP for Q1 on Thursday. The consensus estimate stands at 1.0% after a 1.3% gain in Q4 of 2021. A loss of momentum in the economy could mean a contraction in the second quarter, raising the likelihood of stagflation. The only new data in the GDP report will be the March figures, as January and February were already published. The estimate for March is for a flat reading, after gains of 0.1% in February and 0.8% in January.   EU The Russia/Ukraine war and the sanctions against Russia have dampened economic activity in the eurozone. Germany, the largest economy in the bloc has been posting weak numbers as the war goes on. With the EU announcing it will end Russian energy imports by the end of the year, there are concerns that the German economy could tip into a recession. On Tuesday Germany releases ZEW Survey Expectations, which surveys financial professionals. Economic Sentiment is expected to decline to -42.5 in May, down from -41.0 in April. On Friday, the Eurozone releases Industrial Production for March. The Ukraine conflict has exacerbated supply line disruptions, which is weighing on industrial production. The sharp drop in German Industrial Production (-3.9%), suggests that the Eurozone release will also show a contraction. The March estimate is -1.8%, following a gain of 0.7% in February.    Russia Russia’s inflation has been accelerating sharply since the invasion of Ukraine. In March, CPI rose to 16.7% (YoY) and is expected to climb to 18.1% in April. The driver behind the sharp upswing has been Western sanctions, which have reduced the availability of consumer imports and key components for domestic products. CPI is expected to continue to climb in the coming months.   China China releases its Balance of Trade on Monday and Inflation on Tuesday. Both have downside risks given the disruption to business and the collapse in property sales and sentiment due to the covid-zero policy. Restrictions continue tightening in Beijing and the covid-zero policy has become the biggest headwind to a China recovery. The government reaffirmed its commitment to the policy Friday, sending China stocks lower. Additionally, US-listed China stocks face new delisting risk from US regulators that is weighing on Hong Kong markets especially, where most dual listings live. Negative headlines around Covid 19 or US delisting over the weekend could send China equities sharply lower into the start of the week. USD/CNY and USD/CNH have now risen from  6.4000 to 6.7000 in just two weeks. The PBOC remains comfortable at this stage, being a back door stimulus to manufacturers. The PBOC USD/CNY fixing will be the key indicator as to whether the authorities have said Yuan depreciation has gone far enough.   India The Reserve Bank of India sprung a surprise rate hike on markets this past week, sending the Sensex lower whilst providing some support to the INR temporarily. India’s CPI inflation release on Thursday will be this week’s key risk event. If the data comes in above expectations at 7.30%, expectations will rise of a faster more aggressive hiking cycle from the RBI which was quite hawkish in its guidance after the hike. THat will send Indian equities sharply lower once again, while possibly mollifying the impact on the INR from a rampant US Dollar.   Australia Australia could be a correlation trade for the tier-1 PMI releases from China over the weekend. Poor China data could see the AUD and local equities pressured with most of Asia, ex-Japan closed.SImilarly, a decent showing by the China PMIs will have a positive impact. Markets, especially currency markets, could face liquidity issues and see sharp moves if the weekend news wire is heavy as Australia and Japan will be the only two major centres open. Most attention will be focused on Tuesday’s RBA rate decision. A 0.15% hike is fully priced by markets and the clouds from Ukraine and China are weighing heavily on AUD/USD anyway. If the RBA does not hike AUD/USD could fall sharply in the short-term. If the RBA hikes and adjusts its guidance to a more hawkish, AUD/USD could potentially see a big move higher.   New Zealand NZ Retail Card Spending has downside risks and the Food Price Index, upside risks this week. The cost of living has become the central issue in New Zealand at the moment and a high FPI will heap pressure on the RBNZ to accelerate rate hikes as the economy starts to show signs of stress elsewhere. NZD/USD has traded very heavy in past two weeks as investors price in a hard landing and an RBNZ behind the curve, and as risk sentiment sours internationally. NZD/USD is closing at the weeks lows and could test 0.6200 this week.   Japan Japan releases a raft of second tier data this week. THe 10 and 30-year JGB auctions will be closely watched, if only for signs of poor cover ratio given the BOJ JGB intervention and weakening Yen. THe centre of attention will remain the USD/JPY as the US/Japan rate differential widens. USD/JPY could well test 135.00 in the week ahead if the negative sentiment sweeping markets on Friday spills into next week. Higher oil prices will also weigh onthe Yen. We expect the noise to increase from Tokyo but little chance of USD/JPY intervention at these levels.   Singapore No significant data. The currency remains under pressure as a proxy for China and also because the MAS meets six monthly to determine monetary policy. The next meeting will not be until October to determine if monetary policy gets tightened once again.      Markets OilCrude prices are steadily rising as the EU is making progress towards its Russia oil sanctions ban. The oil market will remain tight going forward now that OPEC+ is set on delivering meager output increases and as US production struggles despite rising rig counts. The biggest uncertainty for the crude demand outlook remains the outlook for the Chinese economy. China won’t be abandoning their zero-COVID policy anytime soon and that will keep the short-term crude demand outlook vulnerable. China’s COVID situation might not be improving anytime soon and now that the data is showing the impact of business restrictions is more widespread than just to Shanghai and Beijing. Oil will remain a volatile trade going forward with most of the fundamentals still pointing to higher prices. GoldJust when gold seems to be showing signs it is getting its luster back, the bond market says ‘not so fast’.  Gold continues to struggle in this current environment of surging global bond yields and that might last a little while longer as some central banks for the purpose of defeating inflation might be willing to send their respective economies into a recession. Gold’s awful few weeks of trade has seen a collapse of the $1900 level and that should prove to be key resistance now.  If the bond market selloff accelerates and the dollar surges, gold could be vulnerable to a drop towards $1835 and if that does not hold, $1800 might be targeted. Bitcoin Confidence in crypto markets is waning after Bitcoin tumbled below the $37,000 level following the surge in global bond yields.  If risk appetite does not return, Bitcoin could be vulnerable to a significant drop towards the $30,000 level.  Choppy trading between $35,000 and $40,000 could be where Bitcoin settles if Wall Street does not price in much more tighter monetary policy by the Fed.
Analysis and trading tips for GBP/USD on June 22

(BTC) Bitcoin’s Price Tanks Along With Equities. U.S. Stock Market Awaits CPI Report, Poor Performance From The FTSE 100.

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 09.05.2022 18:18
Summary: FTSE showing bearish signals in the current market. Future of the US stock market awaiting U.S CPI report due on Wednesday. Bitcoins price fall’s link to the broader market.   Read next: (DOGE) Dogecoin and Musk - How Elon Musk Has Single Handedly Created Price Changes In This Memecoin.    FTSE 100 showing poor performance: The FTSE is the Financial times Stock Exchange listed on the London Stock Exchange. This exchange has tanked more than 2% today, given the size of the exchange, it is a big change. This negative investor sentiment towards the FTSE comes as a result of overall negative investor sentiment after the Bank of England's (BoE) forecast announcements last week. When the BoE delivered an unfavorable announcement for the second quarter of the year, the UK market tanked amidst poor investor confidence in the government's ability to fight against inflation and the looming recession. FTSE 100 Daily Price Chart Future of the US Dollar. Despite the hawkish Fed and the dovish ECB, the market sentiment for this currency pair sits at mixed. Investors are starting to show concerns around where the U.S economy is headed. Concerns around rising prices, inflation, soft corporate earnings growth, the supply chain bottlenecks and the increasing concerns around the looming recession, are all causing investors to hold off on risk. The U.S. stocks have fallen today, with the S&P 500 falling around 2.5% and Nasdaq falling around 3%. Investors will watch in anticipation as the U.S releases their CPI report during the trading day on Wednesday. Investors will look for cooling prices and inflation, if this happens, there could be a relief on the stock market, if not, we could see the stocks fall even more. Bitcoin Price Tanks. The price of Bitcoin has tanked today, hitting its lowest price since July 2021. The reality is that the effects of tightening of monetary policy have been felt throughout all the stock markets, including the cryptocurrency market. Analysts warned investors about the possible drop in the price of Bitcoin if global economic market performance continued to sour. With the price of Bitcoin down more than 6% today the fall comes in line with the tanking global equities amidst geopolitical tensions, supply chain bottlenecks and inflation pressure. BTC Price Chart Sources: dailyfx.com, finance.yahoo.com
Bitcoin dominance falls amid sell-off by long-term investors: will there be altcoin season?

(BTC) Bitcoins Price Crashes, Could The Nasdaq Be In Recovery Mode?, (GBP/USD) Bullish Market Sentiment For The Pound Sterling Against The USD

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 12.05.2022 17:31
Summary: Rising inflation and hawkish reserve banks left investors risk averse. No particular news driving the stock price turn around for the market. Read next: Stock Market Showing Signs Of Slight Recovery Amidst U.S CPI Report Release  Bitcoins prices crashing The price of Bitcoin crashed almost 7% during the trading day on Thursday. The reason for this seems to be the same as what is happening with investors on the wider financial market, investors are turning risk averse and selling off their Bitcoin holdings in the wake of economic insecurity. The current crash is dropped lower than the value during the crash in July 2021. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM The Fed’s increasing interest rates was an initial driver for investor sentiment to change bearish, the increasing interest rates made it more expensive to make bets on the financial markets. Investors are less confident in the ability of cryptocurrencies to hold their value as regulators battle rising inflation. Bitcoin USD Price Chart GBP likely to weaken further According to dailyfx.com, investors are betting on the Pound Sterling to strengthen against the US Dollar. The information the market has right now is that the UK economy is slowing, and likely to enter into a period of stagflation, this will likely cause the value of the GBP to weaken further. The future value of the GBP is not looking too bright. Nasdaq turns around. The Nasdaq has seen poor market performance during the trading week. However, during trading on Thursday, we have seen the stock price for the Nasdaq turn around. According to finance.yahoo.com, there does not seem to be any particular news driving this stock turn around. Nasdaq Price Chart Read next: Tech Stocks Plunging!? Trade Desk Earnings Announcement Pushes Tech Giant Stock Down, Russian Ruble Strengthening and Ford Motor Co.  Sources: slate.com, poundsterlinglive.com, finance.yahoo.com