big tech

All eyes on US inflation and the government's funding deadline 

By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank  

What everyone – most investors, every household and every politician want to see and to sense right now is the end of the global monetary policy tightening cycle, and the beginning of the end starts mostly with the Federal Reserve (Fed).  

Until the beginning of this month, we have seen a pricing that reflected the market's belief that the Fed is going to keep the rates high for long because the world is now braced for an extended period of high inflation. And the rapid rise in the US long term yields because of this very belief that the Fed will keep rates high for long helped the Fed keep its rates steady, at least at the latest meetings. The US 10-year yields spiked above the 5% mark in the second half of October, stagnated close to this peak for a week.  

Then, a sufficiently soft set of jobs data from the US at the start of the month, combined with a r

Swissquote MarketTalk: A Look At XAUUSD, Swiss Secrets, Tesla And More

A Lot To Watch In The US, What About Big Tech Companies?

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 31.01.2022 11:11
US stocks recorded a last-minute rally on Friday, but gains remain on jeopardy as the hawkish Fed expectations and the Russia-Ukraine tensions are weighing on the risk appetite. The geopolitical tensions, in fact, push energy prices higher, further boosting the inflation fears and the Fed hawks. The consensus now is that the Fed would raise the interest rates five times this year. In this environment, US dollar is certainly a good place to park, while gold is doing surprisingly poorly despite having most factors that would normally support a better pricing on its side. In the stock markets, value stock investors are finally being praised for their patience. At today’s episode, I have an interesting comparison of Warren Buffet and Cathi Wood’s performances over the past two years! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:24 Market update 1:34 Energy prices jump on Russia-Ukraine tensions 3:10 USD consolidates gains, XAU performs surprisingly bad 3:55 Warren Buffett vs Cathie Wood 5:43 Big Tech gains at jeopardy as Fed hawks gain field 8:45 This week's economic calendar: ECB, BoE, RBA & OPEC 9:25 This week's corporate calendar: Google, Facebook & Amazon Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
Tesla (TSLA) Price Also Has Its Ups and Downs. It's Below $920 Currently

Tesla (TSLA) Price Also Has Its Ups and Downs. It's Below $920 Currently

FXStreet News FXStreet News 31.01.2022 15:49
Tesla stock tumbles after beating earnings estimates TSLA shares hit by concerns over supply chain issues. Apple and big tech could turn the market next week. Tesla (TSLA) staged a modest recovery on Friday, but the real damage was done on Thursday when the stock shed nearly 12%. Friday's move was not even that impressive given Tesla's high beta, a fact that would usually see it bounce significantly more than the major indices. As we know well by now high, growth is not the sector of choice this year, and Tesla does straddle this space. Investors are moving back to more traditional sectors and metrics for their portfolios, and the era of high flying growth is coming to an end, for now at least. We view this as a positive event, stretching too far would have resulted in an ugly snapback or bubble popping most likely. This stabilisation should continue for the year with one or two speculative dead cat bounces along the way. We may just get one of those next week as the remainder of big tech gets a chance to continue on from where Apple led. Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are all reporting earnings this week. Positive earnings should steady sentiment, and this would then also likely spread to some high growth names. However, in the longer term, we expect balance sheets rather than growth to outperform this year. Tesla Stock News Tesla is not just pure growth, although it is managing to do that rather impressively if the latest results are anything to go by. It will stay with the pace, while other start-up EV manufacturers are more likely to fade away. Tesla created the EV space and remains the brand leader. This will likely not change since it has positioned itself as a premium brand. It will likely face more competition, but we do not see it losing quite as much market share as that forecast by Bank of America. Forecasting a drop from 69% to 19% market share in the space of two years does seem a bit headline-grabbing. The problem for Tesla is its valuation got too ahead of itself, so it is likely to underperform in this new environment despite continued strong earnings and revenue growth. Tesla Stock Forecast The bearish trend is now well-established. Thursday's losses only followed on from what we identified back in early January. The spike higher failed, and then it created a lower low, which confirmed the mid-December low. Even Friday's price action set a lower low than Thursday before the bounce set in. Resistance at $987 is last week's high and is first up. A close above that is significant and a new bar above that will signify a small short-term uptrend. Otherwise, the medium-term downtrend remains in control with support at the 200-day moving average, which sits at $814 currently. Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily
Technical Analysis: Moving Averages - Did You Know This Tool?

(PLTR) Palantir Stock Went Down And Isn't Even Close To November's Levels

FXStreet News FXStreet News 01.02.2022 15:49
Palantir stock rises by nearly 8% on Monday. PLTR shares have suffered from the hawkish Fed and risk aversion. Palantir could see a rally as risk assets see inflows. Palantir (PLTR) is back on the minds of traders as retail interest stocks finally catch a bid in this new environment. Meme and retail interest stocks have been hammered so far in 2022. Most, if not all, of these stocks are high growth, unprofitable and highly speculative names, and the momentum has dried up in this sector in 2022. The Fed has pivoted to a strongly hawkish stance, and markets are pricing in five rate hikes this year. Palantir has fallen 25% so far this year and nearly 50%over the last three months. Palantir Stock News The meme and retail space staged a recovery yesterday as some end-of-month position covering saw some positive flows. Added to this was a more risk-on tone following from Apple's strong earnings late last week and in anticipation of more big tech earnings this week. AMC then whetted risk appetites further this morning when it released revenue numbers that were ahead of analysts' forecasts. AMC shares popped 14% and dragged many retail and meme stocks along with them. All this should contribute to more gains for Palantir on Tuesday as momentum is key for these names. Adding to this and more stock-specific is that Palantir and Satellogic (SATL) announced a strategic partnership. "Combining the forces of Palantir’s Edge AI technology with Satellogic’s frequent high-resolution imagery will give users actionable insight faster than ever, accelerating their operations from space to mud," said Shyam Sankar, COO of Palantir. "The holistic capabilities of Palantir's Foundry will be instrumental in helping Satellogic realize our mission to improve life on Earth through geospatial data,” said Matthew Tirman, President of Satellogic North America. “ Satellogic will provide Palantir’s US government customers with ready access to Satellogic’s high-resolution satellite imagery to drive analytical insights across a range of mission-oriented use cases.” Satellogic only recently went public via a SPAC deal, listing on the NASDAQ on January 26. We do not have details of the financial side of the partnership or the impact on Palantir's revenue streams. The partnership is for five years, and the companies already have an existing collaboration. All this makes it less significant in our view as it is merely an add-on to an existing relationship between the two companies. Investors are pushing the news aggressively on social media. Palantir Stock Forecast We do note the oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) on January 27 with it dipping below 20. Oversold readings are usually below 30 for the RSI, but 20 eliminates false signals. This then worked well, and today's move is likely to see more gains. Breaking $13.61 gets PLTR shares above the 9-day moving average, and the next resistance is at $15 from both the yearly VWAP and 21-day moving average. The VWAP is the volume-weighted average price. Palantir (PLTR) chart, daily
Peloton Interactive (PTON) Stock News and Forecast: And just like that, it's back

Peloton Interactive (PTON) Stock News and Forecast: And just like that, it's back

FXStreet News FXStreet News 09.02.2022 16:19
Peloton shares continue to be the most discussed stock on mainstream and social media. Two straight days of 20%-plus gains for PTON stock. The new CEO gets just the start he would have wanted. It is not exactly reassuring to your confidence when you step down as CEO of a company and the stock immediately explodes higher. Investors clearly had enough of Peloton's (PTON) former CEO John Foley. New man Barry McCarthy hits the ground running despite some mixed commentary from the analyst community this morning. Peloton Stock News Peloton reported earnings on Tuesday. The stock had already surged on news ( of a new CEO and continued reports that the company may be in the sights of big tech eyeing a potential takeover for the beleaguered fitness company. Revenue came in at $1.13 billion below the $1.15 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) came in below estimates at $-1.39 versus the $-1.20 estimate. The outlook was also weak with Peloton seeing full-year 2022 revenue at $3.8 billion, while analysts had forecast $4 billion. Following the results, Stifel maintained its buy rating on PTON with a $45 price target. Macquarie maintained its outperform rating with a lowered $60 price target, while Barclays also lowered its price target to $60 as well. Bank of America said, "Our estimates that assumed price cuts would drive new demand were too optimistic." BofA has a $42 price target for the stock. Peloton shares had already been strongly ahead in Tuesday's premarket before the earnings release. This was due to the new CEO and a cost-cutting plan including laying off 2,800 employees. The list of potential buyers for Peloton continued to grow as speculation mounted. Potential acquirers include virtually every major fitness company, numerous big tech firms, Berkshire Hathaway and SoftBank. We do question whether in particular big tech would get much benefit out of the acquisition. Fitness has been a big part of the wearable market, and Peloton's subscribers are its value, but do Apple, Amazon and Google really struggle that much for users? Sports companies mentioned include Nike (NKE) and Adidas (ADDYY). These may make more sense as the subscribers could generate more value, add-ons and ancillary sales. Peloton Stock Forecast The weekly chart ( gives us all the information we need going back to the launch in September 2019. Peloton (PTON) rallied all the way up to $171 this time last year before steadily falling back. The stock has now totally retraced all of the pandemic gains and then some. In that respect, investors may be tempted to buy into the name as subscribers in 2019 totaled just over 500,000, whereas currently Peloton has 2.77 million subscribers. From the weekly chart, we can see the power of volume gaps we often talk about. Peloton broke sharply once it entered the light volume zone from $81 to $37. Now it has stabilized at a high volume zone and the point of control. This does set a potential base for the stock. ( Peloton (PTON) chart, weekly The daily chart below shows we have had a bullish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) since the last earnings despite the share price continuing to slide. $23 remains support with first resistance at $46. This latest move is likely to calm down unless more takeover talk surfaces. If the price move does calm, then holding above $30 is key to keeping the bottom in place. Peloton (PTON) chart, daily  
Nikkei, Taiex And Kospi Are Falling. Situation Of Markets In Asia Pacific

Tech Stocks Plunging!? Trade Desk Earnings Announcement Pushes Tech Giant Stock Down, Russian Ruble Strengthening and Ford Motor Co.

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 10.05.2022 17:23
Summary: Trade Desk losing value as investors await earnings announcement. Russian Ruble price increase. Ford Motor Co latest big buyer. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin’s Price Tanks Along With Equities. U.S. Stock Market Awaits CPI Report, Poor Performance From The FTSE 100.  Investors selling Trade Desk Trade desk is the largest pure-play ad tech company, their stock price has been falling throughout the trading day on Tuesday. Trade Desk is due to make their earnings announcement after market closing today, most other tech giants delivered poor earnings results for the first quarter of 2022. Therefore, investor sentiment in this industry is bearish and it is unsurprising that investors are going short on Trade Desk stock inlight of the expected announcement. Trade Desk Price Chart The Russian Ruble Strengthens Although the Russian Ruble has strengthened, it does not mean that Russia is experiencing economic growth, instead it may be an indication that Russia is experiencing an import crisis. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Russian imports have fallen drastically as many countries and companies who previously imported from Russia have cut their ties to avoid backlash from the west. However, although the sanctions on Russia have been imposed, they are still exporting to many countries. This is causing the Russian current account to be in Surplus, putting upward pressure on the Ruble. As the Western countries impose more sanctions on Russia and possibly speed up the oil Embargo, the Rubles value will struggle. Ford Motor Co. Share Price increased Ford stock price increased by 1.5% during in pre-market trading day on Tuesday after United Rentals (automaker and equipment rental company) announced plans to purchase electric vehicles from Ford going forward. This will drive up the demand for Ford cars going forward. Sources:,,
Tesla Is Expected A Temporary Rally

Musk Intends To Cut Costs In Tesla On Everything

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 26.01.2023 11:34
After Elon Musk acquired Twitter, many investors are wondering what's next for Tesla. Recently, after publishing the results, Elon Musk shared plans for Tesla. In this article: Cuts Apple has maintained its position as the largest smartphone manufacturer Asia will be the leader in the future The future of Big Tech in 2023 Cuts Elon Musk's attention has recently been largely focused on Twitter's activities, but he does not forget about Tesla. Musk intends to cut costs on everything from parts to logistics, while keeping the pressure on competitors with discounted sticker prices. Tesla is also cutting costs by redesigning battery and electric motor system components, removing features owners don't use, based on data collected from Model 3 sedans and Model Y SUVs on the road Elon Musk has a playbook for Tesla headed into what he believes will be a 'serious' recession: cut costs on everything from parts to logistics, while keeping the pressure on competitors with discounted sticker prices — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) January 26, 2023 Apple has maintained its position as the largest smartphone manufacturer The difficult economic situation also affected the sales of smartphones. Global smartphone shipments declined in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to research firm IDC. A total of 1.21 billion smartphones were shipped in 2022, the lowest annual shipment volume since 2013 due to significantly weakened consumer demand, inflation and economic uncertainty. Apple has maintained its position as the largest smartphone manufacturer in the world. The US tech giant shipped 72.3 million iPhones in the fourth quarter, down 14.9% year-on-year. Samsung, the second largest player in the smartphone market, saw sales fall 15.6% year-on-year to 58.2 million units. Samsung did not release an all-new flagship smartphone for the fourth quarter. Smartphone shipments plunge to a low not seen since 2013 — their largest ever decline — CNBC (@CNBC) January 26, 2023 Read next: Trump Returns To Social Media, Meta Will Restore The Former President's Account| FXMAG.COM Asia will be the leader in the future Since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, global growth has been put to a significant test. This was especially shown in 2022, where the growing inflation and interest rates affected the condition of the economies. Investors and economists are wondering whether global economic leaders will maintain their positions or will this change over the years as a result of events. The United States is the economic leader followed by China. According to economists, this may change and the main driving force of global growth will not be Western countries, but countries from Asia. This is very likely because most of the population is in this region, and this region is developing dynamically and thus offers jobs and attracts new residents. What countries are likely to power global growth in the decades to come? We cover the answer in our #ExchangesGS podcast here: — Goldman Sachs (@GoldmanSachs) January 25, 2023 The future of Big Tech in 2023 2022 was a difficult year for Silicon Valley. After solid growth lasting more than a decade and a pandemic-induced boom, Big Tech giants like Meta, Alphabet and Apple have lost market value. Overall, Big Tech faces countless challenges in 2023, including macroeconomic pressures, increased competition, supply chain issues, and bloated cost structures. However, there are positive sides to every cloud: companies are now rethinking their business strategies, which could pave the way for a more sustainable era for Big Tech. For example, when it comes to Meta, the company is expected to continue to focus on its new AI Discovery engine, ads, and business platforms. Big Tech firms endured a tough year due to macro headwinds, supply chain issues, and plummeting revenues. J.P. Morgan Research explores the opportunities that lie ahead. — J.P. Morgan (@jpmorgan) January 25, 2023
Global Market Insights: PBoC's Stand Against Speculators, Chinese FDI Trends, and Indian Inflation

Geopolitical Talks and Fed Uncertainty: Market Updates and Expectations for Rate Hikes

Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 19.06.2023 09:45
The week kicks off on positive geopolitical vibes as the weekend talks between the US and China went well, and more senior level talks, including Xi Jinping are expected in the next few hours.  Despite this, Asian indices remained mostly sold on Monday, while US futures traded in the negative. It's certainly because last week was a bit confusing in terms of where the Federal Reserve (Fed) is headed to, after the dot plot showed two more possible rate hikes before the year ends, versus a final rate hike expected in July.   Activity on Fed funds futures gives more than 70% for a July hike, and more than 75% for a September hike on fear that inflation wouldn't slow as much as expected, and that the US jobs market will remain too robust to call the end of the US rate hikes. Fed Chair Powell will testify before the Senate this week and will certainly stick to the Fed's hawkish stance.      The S&P500 and Nasdaq both fell on Friday, but the S&P500 ended last week having gained 2.6%. It was the 5th straight week of gains for the S&P500, while Nasdaq closed the week 3.3% higher than where it had started. Both indices are now at the highest levels since last spring, and both are in overbought territory. Volatility continues fading, while any investors questions whether this is the calm before storm.   On good thing is that the Fed's reverse repo operations are trending lower, as a result of a flood of US bond issuance following the debt ceiling agreement and keep market liquidity sustained for equities.   But the US 2-year yield is headed toward the 5% mark – which is negative for equity valuations, whereas upside potential remains contained at the long end of the curve. And the widening spread means that bond investors continue pricing in recession in the foreseeable future, which is, in theory, negative for equity valuations as well.   Big Tech is responsible for around 80% of the gains in the S&P500 this year due to the AI-rally, but Russell 2000 gives signs of willingness of joining the rally as well. And because there is nothing much encouraging happening on the Fed end, the overall direction of the market, and market mood, will depend on the performance of the Big Tech. And they are now in the overbought market.       Soft dollar  The US dollar trades below its 50-DMA, as other central banks are as aggressive as the Fed – if not more! The Bundesbank President Nagel for example hinted that the ECB hikes could extend into autumn and may persist beyond September if core inflation doesn't slow persistently. The EURUSD is back on track for further gains and will likely continue pushing into the 1.10 psychological mark. Price pullbacks are interesting opportunities to strengthen long positions for a further rise toward the 1.12 mark.      Across the Channel, Cable consolidates above the 1.28 mark ahead of the next inflation update, due Wednesday and the next Bank of England (BoE) decision due Thursday. Inflation in Britain is expected to have eased from 8.7% to 8.4%, but the BoE – which has been telling us since a while that these numbers would get smashed by the H2, is now questioning their inflation forecast model – as a clear sign that even they don't believe that inflation will take the direction their model says it will. The BoE expectations remain comfortably hawkish, with another 125bp hike priced in before the end of this year. The latter could help push Cable toward the 1.30 mark.    In Switzerland, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is also preparing to hike the rates by 25bp this week to follow the European peers, while in Turkey, the central bank, with its new leadership, is expected to hike the one-week repo rate from 8.5% to 20% in an effort to normalize the monetary policy that has been put to coma since around two years. Normalization will be painful, both for the economy and the lira, and the dollar-TRY will be left to float free from time to time to test the strength of the negative pressure from the market. The USDTRY remains – is kept - steady around the 23 mark, while the upside is the only direction that the pair could take even despite a monstrous rate hike that will hit the fan this week.  
Taming Inflation: March Rate Cut Unlikely Despite Rough 5-Year Auction

"Inflation, Yields, and Political Uncertainty: A Look at the Upcoming US Financial Landscape

Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 13.11.2023 14:44
All eyes on US inflation and the government's funding deadline  By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank   What everyone – most investors, every household and every politician want to see and to sense right now is the end of the global monetary policy tightening cycle, and the beginning of the end starts mostly with the Federal Reserve (Fed).   Until the beginning of this month, we have seen a pricing that reflected the market's belief that the Fed is going to keep the rates high for long because the world is now braced for an extended period of high inflation. And the rapid rise in the US long term yields because of this very belief that the Fed will keep rates high for long helped the Fed keep its rates steady, at least at the latest meetings. The US 10-year yields spiked above the 5% mark in the second half of October, stagnated close to this peak for a week.   Then, a sufficiently soft set of jobs data from the US at the start of the month, combined with a record but lower-than-expected Treasury borrowing plans slowed down the sharp selloff in US Treasuries and reversed market sentiment. Investors, since the beginning of this month, began flocking back into the US long-term papers. The US 10-year yield tipped a toe below the 4.50% level, this time. We are talking about a plunge of more than 50bp for the 10-year paper in about two weeks.   And finally, last week, two bad 10- and 30-year bond auctions in the US, and Fed Chair Powell's warning that the Fed could opt for more rate hikes if needed, brought bond investors back to earth. And the 10-year yield rebounded from a dip. This is where we are right now – a period of heavy treasury selloff, followed by significant inflows, and uncertainty.   The uncertainty regarding when the Fed will be done hiking the rates is killing everyone, but even the Fed itself doesn't know when tightening will/should end. It will depend on crucial economic data, like inflation, jobs, and growth figures. The US jobs data is giving signs that the US labour market has started loosening. The US growth numbers are off the chart, but spending isn't necessarily sitting on solid ground, as the US credit card loans go from peak to peak and the credit card delinquencies have taken a lift. The delinquency rate is above the pre-pandemic levels, and just around the post-GFC levels – this means that the Americans spend on debt that they can't pay back anymore. And the US government debt is – as you know - growing exponentially, and Americans pay significantly higher interest on their debt because the rates went from near zero to above 5% in less than two years.  But uncertainty regarding the US debt does not mean that the US Treasuries will fall off grace, because there is nothing comparable to the US Treasuries that could replace US treasuries in a portfolio for low-risk allocations.   Volatility in this space is however unavoidable. This week, we will plunge back into the US political saga, as the government short-term funding deadline is due 17th of November and not much progress has been made to seal a fresh deal. And remember this, the last time the US politicians agreed on a short-term relief package, Joe Biden was forced to leave the funding for Ukraine outside of it. Since then, a new war in Gaza popped up, and the US is now expected to bring financial contribution there, as well.   We could see the US long-term yields recover from the past weeks' decline. Depending on the new funding resolution – or the lack thereof – we could see the US 10-year yield return above 4.80%.   Happily, slower inflows into US treasuries will be a relief for the Fed, which needs the yields to remain high enough to restrict the financial conditions without the need for more action. But the US political shenanigans are only one part of the equation. The other part is...economic data.   The all-important inflation data due Tuesday is going to impact the inflow/outflow dynamics in US Treasuries before the worries grow into the Friday funding deadline. A sufficiently soft inflation read should keep bond traders in appetite for further purchases and mask a part of the political worries, while disappointment could keep buyers on the sidelines and amplify a potential political-led selloff. The good news is that the US headline inflation is expected to have eased to 3.3% in October, from 3.7% printed a month earlier. Core inflation is seen steady around the 4.1% level. The bad news is, the expectation is soft and could be hard to beat.   The US dollar sees resistance at around the 50-DMA, the US stocks continue to cheer the latest pullback in the US yields. The S&P500 closed last week with a beautiful rally, that led the index to above its 100-DMA for the weekly close. The big tech remains the driver of the S&P500 gains as Microsoft hit a fresh high on Friday and Nvidia remained bid a few points below its ATH on news that Chinese AI startup bought enough Nvidia chips before the US exports curbs kicked in. This week, US big retailers will announce their Q3 results and will give a hint on the US consumer trends, health and expectations. Earnings could be mixed but the overall outlook will likely be morose.   

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