bear market meaning

Equity markets take a tumble

It’s a little hard to know where to start today after a massive risk aversion wave swept markets overnight, so let’s start where I believe the rot really began, the Bank of England policy decision overnight. The Bank of England raised rates by 0.25% to 1.0% in a split decision (three members wanted 0.50%), which was in line with expectations. It’s what they said, and not what they did, that saw sterling slump by 2.0%. The bombshell was the 2023 growth forecast, which was marked down massively to -0.25% from 1.25% previously.

 

The BOE basically said there was going to be a recession next year, somewhat at odds with the Federal Reserve’s statements that a soft landing was possible in the US. Overnight BOE officials basically said they were going to concentrate on tackling inflation because there wasn’t much they could do to offset a slowdown. UK consumers would, unfortunately, have to endure rising costs of living and recession headlock that wo

Bear - A Second Symbol Of Markets? What Does Bear Market Mean?

Bear - A Second Symbol Of Markets? What Does Bear Market Mean?

Binance Academy Binance Academy 07.02.2022 07:50
Introduction Financial markets move in trends. It’s important to understand the differences between these trends to be able to make better investment decisions. How come? Well, different market trends can lead to wildly different market conditions. If you don’t know what the underlying trend is, how are you going to adapt to changing conditions? A market trend is the overall direction that the market is going. In a bear market, prices are generally declining. Bear markets can be a challenging time to trade or invest in, especially for beginners.  Most crypto traders and technical analysts agree that Bitcoin has been in a macro bull trend throughout its existence. Even so, there have been several relentless cryptocurrency bear markets. These generally bring more than an 80% decline in the price of Bitcoin, while altcoins can easily experience more than 90% declines. What can you do during these times? In this article, we’ll discuss what a bear market is, how you should prepare for it, and how you may be able to profit in it. If you’d like to read about bull markets first, check out What Is A Bull Market?.   What is a bear market? A bear market can be described as a period of declining prices in a financial market. Bear markets can be extremely risky and difficult to trade for inexperienced traders. They can easily lead to great losses and scare investors from ever returning to the financial markets. How come?  There’s this saying among traders: “Stairs up, elevators down.” This means that moves to the upside may be slow and steady, while moves to the downside tend to be more sharp and violent. Why is that? When the price starts crashing, many traders rush to exit the markets. They do that to either stay in cash or lock in profits from their long positions. This can quickly result in a domino effect where sellers rushing to the exit leads to even more sellers exiting their positions, and so on. The drop can be amplified even more if the market is highly leveraged. Mass liquidations will have an even more pronounced cascading effect, resulting in a violent sell-off. With that said, bull markets can also have phases of euphoria. During these times, prices are increasing at an extreme rate, correlations are higher than usual, and a majority of assets are going up in tandem. Typically, investors are “bearish” in a bear market, meaning that they expect prices to decline. This also means that market sentiment is generally quite low. However, this may not mean that all market participants are in active short positions. This just means that they expect prices to decline and may be looking to position themselves accordingly if the opportunity presents itself.   Bear market examples As we’ve discussed, many investors think that Bitcoin has been in a macro bull trend since it started trading. Does that mean there aren’t bear markets contained in that bull run? No. After Bitcoin’s move to around $20,000 in December 2017, it’s had quite a brutal bear market.   Bitcoin price crashes after the 2017 bull market.   And before the 2018 bear market, Bitcoin experienced an 86% drop in 2014.   Bitcoin price crashes 86% from the 2013 top.    As of July 2020, the range of the previous bear market low around $3,000 have been retested but never broken. If that low would have been breached, a stronger argument could be made that a multi-year Bitcoin bear market is still underway.   Bitcoin retesting the range of its previous bear market low.   Since that level has not been broken, the argument can be made that the crash following COVID-19 fears was merely a retest of the range. Still, there are no certainties when it comes to technical analysis, only probabilities. Other notable bear market examples come from the stock market. The Great Depression, the 2008 Financial Crisis, or the 2020 stock market crash due to the coronavirus pandemic are all noteworthy examples. These events have all caused great damage on Wall Street and impacted stock prices across the board. Market indexes such as the Nasdaq 100, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), or the S&P 500 index can experience significant price declines during times like these.   Bear market vs. bull market – what’s the difference? The difference is fairly straightforward. In a bull market, prices are going up, while in a bear market, prices fall. One notable difference may be that bear markets can have long periods of consolidation, i.e., sideways or ranging price action. These are times when market volatility is quite low, and there’s little trading activity happening. While the same may be true in bull markets, this kind of behavior tends to be more prevalent in bear markets. After all, prices going down for an extended period isn’t very attractive for most investors. Something else to consider is whether it’s possible to enter a short position on an asset in the first place. If there’s no ability to short an asset on margin or using derivatives, traders can only express a bearish view on the market by selling for cash or stablecoins. This can lead to a longer, drawn-out downtrend with little buying interest, resulting in a slow and uneventful sideways price action.   ➟ Looking to get started with cryptocurrency? Buy Bitcoin on Binance!   How to trade in a bear market One of the simplest strategies traders can use in a bear market is to stay in cash (or stablecoins). If you’re not comfortable with prices declining, it may be better to simply wait until the market gets out of bear market territory. If there’s an expectation that a new bull market may come at some point in the future, you can take advantage of it when it does. At the same time, if you’re long-term HODLing with an investment time horizon of many years or decades, a bear market isn’t necessarily a direct signal to sell. When it comes to trading and investing, it’s generally a better idea to trade with the direction of the market trend. This is why another lucrative strategy in bear markets could be to open short positions. This way, when asset prices are going down, traders can profit off the decline. These can be day trades, swing trades, position trades – the main intention is simply to trade in the direction of the trend. With that said, many contrarian traders will look for “counter-trend” trades, meaning trades that are against the direction of the major trend. Let’s see how that works. In the case of a bear market, this would be entering a long position on a bounce. This move is sometimes called a “bear market rally” or a “dead cat bounce”. These counter-trend price moves can be notoriously volatile, as many traders may jump on the opportunity to long a short-term bounce. However, until the overall bear market is confirmed to be over, the assumption is that the downtrend will resume right after the bounce.  This is why successful traders will take profits (around the recent highs) and exit before the bear trend resumes. Otherwise, they could be stuck in their long position while the bear market continues. As such, it’s important to note that this is a highly risky strategy. Even the most advanced traders can incur significant losses when trying to catch a falling knife.    Closing thoughts We’ve discussed what a bear market is, how traders may protect themselves and profit off bear markets. In summary, the most straightforward strategy is to stay in cash in a bear market – and wait for a safer opportunity to trade. Alternatively, many traders will look for opportunities to build short positions. As we know, it’s wise to follow the direction of the market trend when it comes to trading.
Germany's Economic Déjà Vu: A Look Back and a Leap Forward

Bear market Friday

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 06.05.2022 10:22
Equity markets take a tumble It’s a little hard to know where to start today after a massive risk aversion wave swept markets overnight, so let’s start where I believe the rot really began, the Bank of England policy decision overnight. The Bank of England raised rates by 0.25% to 1.0% in a split decision (three members wanted 0.50%), which was in line with expectations. It’s what they said, and not what they did, that saw sterling slump by 2.0%. The bombshell was the 2023 growth forecast, which was marked down massively to -0.25% from 1.25% previously.   The BOE basically said there was going to be a recession next year, somewhat at odds with the Federal Reserve’s statements that a soft landing was possible in the US. Overnight BOE officials basically said they were going to concentrate on tackling inflation because there wasn’t much they could do to offset a slowdown. UK consumers would, unfortunately, have to endure rising costs of living and recession headlock that would make Stone Cold Steve Austin proud. It is of little surprise that the BOE doesn’t intend to start reducing its GBP 875 billion balance sheet yet. The only positive being the BOE will likely hike rates in small increments and let markets themselves do most of the dirty work.   That is somewhat at odds with Fed Chairman Powell’s comments that the Fed would be able to engineer a soft landing for the US economy as it scrambles to get on top of inflation. Given the economics PHDs were adamant that inflation was “transitory” last year, I’m struggling to fully buy into that, and so it seems, is the street. I argued yesterday that hiking rates by 0.50% a meeting while scaling up quickly to sell USD 95 billion of bonds and MBS a month off their balance sheet wasn’t dovish at all. Also, Mr Powell’s comments had left plenty of wiggle room to hike by 0.75% if needed. 0.50% hikes could be as “transitory” as inflation. Markets seemed to come to that realisation overnight, US 10-year yields climbed back through 3.0% and stayed there, and everyone knows about the bonfire in equity markets.   The Reserve Bank of India blinked on inflation this week as well with their unscheduled rate hike. I actually applaud them for this; there’s no shame in effectively admitting you were incorrect and acting decisively to sort the mess out. Even an ECB member said overnight that a rate hike would be considered at the June meeting. Considering and doing are two different things though, although if EUR/USD is around parity, their thoughts might be focused. However, their rightful get-out-of-jail card is that they are rapidly moving to oversight of a pseudo-wartime economy.   Master fence-sitting vacillators, the Reserve Bank of Australia, though, haven’t made too many friends with their guidance. Hiking rates by 0.25% earlier this week, while still playing the dovishly hawkish card. The RBA Statement of Monetary Policy this morning though, told a rather different message and I’m wondering if they were hoping nobody was watching because it’s Friday. It massively raised trimmed mean inflation forecasts to 4.75% by December 2022, and 3.25% by December 2023, with core-inflation remaining above the 2-3% target band until 2024. It said it was appropriate to start normalising interest rates and that further increases would be needed to restrain inflation. Australian equities would have been battered today after the Wall Street slump overnight anyway but would probably have suffered a similar fate anyway after the RBA SoMP release.   Slowly but surely, the central bank fence-sitters are being dragged into the inflation fight, even if they are fighting dovish rear guard actions. The reality that inflation has returned to the world after 20 years, that the 15 year run of the cost of capital is zero per cent is over, or that we can no longer rely on central banks to reverse flow wealth transfers to homeowners and equity investors and corporate debt Caligula’s via quantitative easing, appears to be dawning on the world. We may well have reached peak globalisation and with China slowing, a process in place pre-covid-zero I might add, and a war in Eastern Europe that will price shock the world’s food and energy value chains, it is little surprise that equity markets might be having second thoughts about valuations, even at these levels.   And still, the week isn’t over, with US Non-Farm Payrolls still to come. Market expectations are for around 400,000 jobs to be added, roughly the same as March, with unemployment edging lower to 3.50%. A sharp divergence, up or down, from the median forecast, should produce a very binary outcome given the schizophrenic nature of the short-term financial markets at the moment. A print north of 500,000 should provoke a faster tightening by the Fed possible recession equals selling equities, bonds, gold, cryptos, DM and EM FX, buy US dollars reaction. Conversely, a print under 300,000 should see a sigh of relief less Fed tightening rally. Buy equities, bonds, gold, cryptos, DM and EM currencies and sell US dollars. It’s that sort of market.   Thankfully, most of us still have our weekends free, but if one wants to watch the direction of travel for market sentiment, the crypto-space this weekend might be interesting to watch, especially if we get some headline bombs. Bitcoin held support perfectly ahead of support at USD 37,400.00 on Wednesday, rising 5.20% in the general post FOMC relief rally. Overnight, it lost around 8.0% and traded as low as USD 35,600.00, crashing through the triangle support at USD 37,400.00. Negative developments over the weekend could spur a sell-off to around USD 32,000.00 settings Monday up for a bad start. If risk sentiment continues plummeting, the chicken bones on the technical charts suggest bitcoin could be on its way to USD 28,000.00 and then USD 20,000.00. HODL on for dear life.   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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