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Daily analysis by DayTradeIdeas - 03/11/2022 - 1

FTSE 100 December reversed from the 7190/7200 targeting minor support at 7170/50 then strong support at 7110/7090 with a low for the day exactly here. Longs need stops below 7070.

Daily analysis by DayTradeIdeas - 03/11/2022 - 2

Today's Analysis.

Dax December broke the 3 week rising trend line, from the October recovery - a counter trend move. So it is likely that the 2022 bear trend has resumed. However best support at 13150/100 today. Holding here allows a recovery to first resistance at 13250/350. Shorts need stops above 13400.

First support at 13150/100 but longs need stops below 13050. A break lower targets second 12950/900. A break below 12850 is a medium term sell signal & confirms the resumption of the bear trend. A weekly close below tomorrow night is further confirmation of course.

FTSE December a low for the day exactly at strong support at 7110/7090. Longs need stops below 7070. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 7030/20 then 6970/60.

Longs at strong support at 7110/7090 can target 7180/90.

The Swing Overview – Week 17 2022

The Swing Overview – Week 17 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 03.05.2022 11:04
The Swing Overview – Week 17 Major stock indices continued in their correction and tested strong support levels. In contrast, the US dollar strengthened strongly and is at its highest level since January 2017. The strengthening of the dollar had a negative impact on the value of the euro and commodities such as gold, which fell below the $1,900 per ounce. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates low and the yen broke the magic level 130 per dollar. The USD index strengthened again but the US GDP declined The US consumer confidence in the month of April came in at 107.3, a slight decline from the previous month when consumer confidence was 107.6.   The US GDP data was surprising. The US economy decreased by 1.4% in 1Q 2022 (in the previous quarter the economy grew by 6.4%). This sharp decline surprised even analysts who expected the economy to grow by 1.1%. This result is influenced by the Omicron, which caused the economy to shut down for a longer period than expected earlier this year.    The Fed meeting scheduled for the next week on May 4 will be hot. In fact, even the most dovish Fed officials are already leaning towards a 0.5% rate hike. At the end of the year, we can expect a rate around 2.5%.   The US 10-year bond yields continue to strengthen on the back of these expectations. The US dollar is also strengthening and is already at its highest level since January 2017, surpassing 103 level.  Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and the USD index on the daily chart   Earnings season is underway in equities Earnings season is in full swing. Amazon's results were disappointing. While revenue was up 7% reaching $116.4 billion in the first quarter (revenue was $108.5 billion in the same period last year), the company posted an total loss of $8.1 billion, which translated to a loss of $7.56 per share. This loss, however, is not due to operating activities, but it is the result of the revaluation of the equity investment in Rivian Automotive.   Facebook, on the other hand, surprised in a positive way posting unexpectedly strong user growth, a sign that its Instagram app is capable of competing with Tik Tok. However, the revenue growth of 6.6% was the lowest in the company's history.    Apple was also a positive surprise, reporting earnings per share of $1.52 (analysts' forecast was $1.43) and revenue growth of $97.3 billion, up 8.6% from the same period last year. However, the company warned that the closed operations in Russia, the lockdown in China due to the coronavirus and supply disruptions will negatively impact earnings in the next quarter.   Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart In terms of technical analysis, the US SP 500 index is in a downtrend and has reached a major support level on the daily chart last week, which is at 4,150. It has bounced upwards from this support to the resistance according to the 4 H chart which is 4,308 - 4,313. The next resistance according to the H4 chart is 4,360 - 4,365.  The strong resistance is at 4,500.   German DAX index German businessmen are optimistic about the development of the German economy in the next 6 months, as indicated by the Ifo Business Climate Index, which reached 91.8 for April (the expectation was 89.1). However, this did not have a significant effect on the movement of the index and it continued in its downward correction. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The index is below the SMA 100 on both the daily chart and the H4 chart, confirming the bearish sentiment. The nearest support according to the H4 is 13,600 - 13,650. The resistance is 14,180 - 14,200. The next resistance is 14,592 - 14,632.   The euro has fallen below 1.05 The euro lost significantly last week. While the French election brought relief to the markets as Emmanuel Macron defended the presidency, geopolitical tensions in Ukraine continue to weigh heavily on the European currency. The strong dollar is also having an impact on the EUR/USD pair, pushing the pair down. The price has fallen below 1.05, the lowest level since January 2017.    Figure 4: EURUSD on H4 and daily chart The euro broke through the important support at 1.0650 - 1.071, which has now become the new resistance. The new support was formed in January 2017 and is around the level 1.0350 - 1.040.   Japan's central bank continues to support the fragile economy The Bank of Japan on Thursday reinforced its commitment to keep interest rates at very low levels by pledging to buy unlimited amounts of 10-year government bonds daily, sparking a fresh sell-off in the yen and reviving government bonds. With this commitment, the BOJ is trying to support a fragile economy, even as a surge in commodity prices is pushing the inflation up.   The decision puts Japan in the opposite position to other major economies, which are moving towards tighter monetary policy to combat soaring prices. Figure 5: The USD/JPY on the monthly and daily chart In fresh quarterly forecasts, the central bank has projected core consumer inflation to reach 1.9% in the current fiscal year and then ease to 1.1% in fiscal years 2023 and 2024, an indication that it views the current cost-push price increases as transitory.   In the wake of this decision, the Japanese yen has continued to weaken and has already surpassed the magical level 130 per dollar.   Strong dollar beats also gold Anticipation of aggressive Fed action against inflation, which is supporting the US dollar, is having a negative impact on gold. The rising US government bond yields are also a problem for the yellow metal. This has put gold under pressure, which peaked on Thursday when the price reached USD 1,872 per ounce of gold. But then the gold started to strengthen. Indeed, the decline in the US GDP may have been something of a warning to the Fed and prevent them from tightening the economy too quickly, which helped gold, in the short term, bounce off a strong support. Figure 6: The gold on H4 and daily chart Strong support for the gold is at $1,869 - $1,878 per ounce. There is a confluence of horizontal resistance and the SMA 100 moving average on the daily chart. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is 1 907 - 1 910 USD per ounce. The strong resistance according to the daily chart is then 1 977 - 2 000 USD per ounce of gold. Moving averages on the H4 chart can also be used as a resistance. The orange line is the EMA 50 and the blue line is the SMA 100.  
Forex News: GBPUSD beats its range. Can buyers start a new leg higher?

Forex News: GBPUSD beats its range. Can buyers start a new leg higher?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 05.05.2022 10:01
Today’s focus is on GBPUSD after its solid rally yesterday after markets surged to the USD after the FOMC statement suggested the Fed might not be as aggressive in its policy to combat inflation. The message also confirmed that the policy would do its best to help the US economy achieve a softish landing, and Powell did comment that inflation remains much too high. Let’s look at the GBPUSD. Price remains in a long-term downtrend. The last key leg we saw was a sharp down leg as the USD continued to fly higher over the previous week. Since the last low was put in on the 28th of April, we have seen a range develop, and that pattern was in place until yesterday, before buyers broke through it to the upside after the FMOC. This break has us thinking, can we see a new leg higher set up after this break? Price so far has been weaker today will sellers retracing over 50% of yesterday’s move. Buyers have been fighting back into today’s European session, and expectations are that the BOE may raise rates again today. Could this continue to give the Cable a boost and send price back up to yesterday’s high? A break and close above yesterday’s high could confirm a new up leg. A close back below the HL is a worry and could suggest that buyer momentum might now be that firm. If we do see a new close above yesterday’s highs and buyers can continue to hold momentum, we would be looking at the closest trend line as a possible higher target. Today’s BOE rates decision is at 9:00 pm AEST. Rates are expected to increase to 1%. GBPUSD D1 Chart The post Forex News: GBPUSD beats its range. Can buyers start a new leg higher? appeared first on Eightcap.
Welcome Back to 1994! [Redux]

Welcome Back to 1994! [Redux]

David Merkel David Merkel 10.05.2022 03:17
Image Credit: Aleph Blog with help from FRED || Look at the mortgage rates fly! Okay, you might or might not remember the last piece. But since that time, 30-year mortgage rates have risen more than 1%. Is the Fed dawdling? Maybe, but the greater threat is that they become too aggressive, and blow up the financial economy, leading us into another decade-long bout of financial repression. As it stands right now, mortgage rates are in a self-reinforcing rising cycle, and it will not end until the Fed raises the Fed funds rate until it inverts the Treasury yield curve. But if I were on the FOMC, I would ignore inflation and the labor markets, and I would watch the financial economy to avoid blowing things up. The FOMC won’t do this. They are wedded to ideas that no longer work, or may never have worked, like the Phillips Curve. They imagine that the macroeconomic models work, when they never do. They forget what Milton Friedman taught — that monetary policy works with long and variable lags. Instead, in tightening cycles, the FOMC acts as if there are no lags. And, in one sense, they are correct. The financial economy reacts immediately to FOMC actions. The real economy, with inflation and unemployment, may take one or two years to see the effects. And because the FOMC forgets about the lags, they overshoot. The FOMC, far from stabilizing the economy, tends to destabilize it. We would be better off running a gold standard, and regulating the banks tightly for solvency. Remember, gold was never the problem — bad bank regulation was the problem. ======================= One more thing — the Fed needs to be quiet. The chatter of Fed governors upsets the markets, as do Fed press conferences and the dot-plot. The Fed was most effective under Volcker and Martin. They said little, and let their actions be known through the Fed’s Open Markets Desk. That allowed the Fed to surprise and lead the markets. The current Fed (since Greenspan) made the mistake of following the markets. Following the markets exacerbates volatility, and promotes oversupplying liquidity. ======================= At present I am pretty sure 30-year mortgage rates will rise to 6%, and maybe 7%. No one is panicking enough on this, so it will likely go higher. MBS hedging is a powerful force, and will continue until people no longer want to buy houses at such high interest rates.
Crypto Focus: Market Steadies but No Sign of Recovery

Crypto Focus: Market Steadies but No Sign of Recovery

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 20.05.2022 15:34
Let’s just say things have been a lot more settled this week than last week’s bloodbath. The top 10 and 25 indexes remain positive on Friday. But it’s very little pulled back compared to the damage done over the last 6-weeks. A few headlines that caught our attention this week, Ripple partnered with a Lithuanian firm for cross-border payments. Attention remains on Ethereum as it prepares to merge and just hangs on to the 2000 USD level. Tether is said to be partially backed by non-US government bonds. Is this meant to give us confidence after the stable coins fiasco last week? Talk emerging around debt defaults by El Salvador. The country famously made Bitcoin legal tender and was reported to have bought large parcels on the coin. The pressure continued this week as BTC fell below 29K. Price has moved back above 30K, but pressure remains on the country after this move. Ranges are the topic of a lot of the top ten at this point in the week. We discussed this in detail in our Bitcoin report earlier today, and it’s not really a surprise based on last week’s trade. We want to point out the weekly demand areas and support areas we are seeing holding on several coins. Definitely take a look at some of the top 10 on their weekly charts to see the areas and levels we have brought up. Continuing on from this, we want to show an example of this. As you can see below, Bitcoin weekly has held for now from the 28,600 – 30,000 area. Last week’s plunge failed to break this level, and it remains key weekly support for now. While this level remains in play, we will look for buyers to continue to consolidate.   The post Crypto Focus: Market Steadies but No Sign of Recovery appeared first on Eightcap.
The movie that changed futures trading once and for all

The movie that changed futures trading once and for all

Purple Trading Purple Trading 14.06.2022 08:01
The movie that changed futures trading once and for all There is more than dozen of films about financial markets. However, there is only one that had such an impact that it led to a legislative change in the commodity futures market. Which movie are we talking about and what changes it introduce in regards to commodity trading? Read on! Holywood’s fascination with financial markets Holywood is no stranger to depicting the world of financial markets. The subject became particularly attractive in the 1980s, when it became clear that market capitalism was more viable economic model than central planning of the Eastern Bloc, resulting in many films set in the stock market environment, majority of which focusing on Wall Street. However, only one of these films has managed to leave a mark in the memory of viewers as well as in law textbooks. Trading Places - a probe into the world of commodity trading Brothers Mortimer and Randolp Duke are bored billionaires who own a commodities trading brokerage firm. One day, as a part of somewhat cynical bet, they decide to swap the lives of a young and promising businessman, Louis Winthorpe III (Dan Aykroyd), and a street hustler, Billy Ray Valentine (Eddie Murphy). They want to crush the dreams of the former while helping the latter to become familiar in the world of financial markets. From today's perspective, the film is a unique probe into the workings of the financial markets before they were heavily computerised. In addition to the brilliant scenes in which are the Duke brothers explaining to Billy Valentine how commodities trading works, we also get a glimpse behind the scenes at the New York Board of Trade, where commodities are traded (climactic trading scenes were actually filmed there). The bulk of the plot and the main storyline then revolves around the trading of Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice (FCOJ), specifically the futures contracts of this commodity. Eddie Murphy rule   This rule, officially titled "Section 136 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Transparency and Accountability Reform and Consumer Protection Act, under Section 746" (but commonly referred to as "the Eddie Murphy rule"), prohibits the misuse of internal government information for the purpose of trading in the commodities markets. No one likes spoilers, so if you haven't seen this movie, we won't give away the plot and the denouement of the final scene of the entire movie. We'll just mention that shorting of FCOJ futures plays an important role here. In fact, so important, that this scene is reportedly often reference by traders on the New York Stock Exchange. Figure 1: The final scene of the film that initiated the inception of "Eddie Murphy rule" (source IMDb.com) Trading FCOJ futures today Although nowadays you don't see crowded rooms full of white collar men and women trying to buy low and sell high, FCOJ futures trading still exists. The only main difference is that rooms and phones have been replaced by computer screens and cubicles. Also, virtually anyone can trade today. If you are interested in trying out CFD trading of FCOJ futures, at Purple Trading we have recently introduced this instrument to our trader platforms. Just like our heroes of Trading Places, you can short (and long) and potentialy profit from both favourable and unfavourable market situations. The only difference is that you won't be able to use government information to do so, because Eddie Murphy Rule wouldn't allow you to.
The Swing Overview – Week 24 2022

The Swing Overview – Week 24 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 17.06.2022 16:54
The Swing Overview - Week 24 We've had a week in which the world's major stock indices took a bloodbath in response to rising inflation, which is advancing faster than expected. Central banks have played a major part in this drama. As expected, the US, the UK and, surprisingly, Switzerland raised interest rates. Japan, on the other hand, is still one of the few countries that decided to keep interest rates at their original level of - 0.10%. Macroeconomic data The 0.75% interest rate hike to 1.75%, which was 0.25% higher than the Fed announced at the last meeting, might not have come as a surprise to the markets given that inflation for May was 8.6% on year-on-year basis (8.3% for April). The market reacted strongly in response to the inflation data, and a sell-off in equity indices and a strengthening US dollar followed.   The 0.75% rate hike is the highest since 1994 and the next Fed meeting is expected to see another rate hike again in the range of 0.50% to 0.75%. The Fed is trying to stop rising inflation with this aggressive approach. The problem is that economic projections point to slowing economic growth. Retail data for May fell by 0.3%, which was a surprise to the markets. This is the first drop in consumer spending in 2022. The Fed also lowered GDP growth projections and unemployment is expected to rise as well. All of this points to the risk of stagflation.     But the labour market data is still good. The number of initial claims in unemployment reached 229k last week, down from 232k the previous week. The US dollar hit a new high for the year at 105.86 in response to high inflation and a faster tightening economy. The US 10-year bond yields also rose, reaching 3.479%. Figure 1: The US 10-year bond yields and the USD index on the daily chart   The SP 500 Index The SP 500 index, like other global indices, was in a bloodbath last week as data on rising US inflation in particular surprised. Major supports according to the H4 chart were very quickly broken and the market is showing that it is still in a bearish mood. According to the daily chart, another lower low has formed which together with the lower highs confirms this bearish trend.   Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   A support according to the H4 chart is in the 3,645 - 3,675 range. The nearest resistance is at 3,820 - 3,835. A broken support in the 3,710 - 3,732 area can also be considered as resistance. The most important news is behind us and the market could take a breath for a while. The low levels could also be noticed by long-term investors who will be buying dip. But for speculators, it is very risky to speculate on a market reversal in a downtrend.   German DAX index The German DAX index offers a very similar picture to the SP 500. The ZEW economic sentiment indicator in Germany for the month of June showed a deterioration in sentiment among institutional investors and analysts, with the index reading coming in at -28.0. The ongoing war in Ukraine is undoubtedly influencing this pessimism. The end of this tragic event is still not in sight. What is clear, however, is that the longer the conflict continues, the stronger the impact on the European economy will be.    Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The DAX is in a clear downtrend and broke through significant support at 13,300 last week. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is 13,250 - 13,300. Significant resistance is at 13,650 - 13,700. A new support according to the H4 chart is at 12,950 - 12,980.   The euro has rejected lower readings  Information about higher inflation in the US and a rate hike sent the EUR/USD pair to support levels at 1.0370. However, the level was not broken and the euro then took a strong move from this area. Investors seem to assume that the ECB will have to respond with a higher than 0.25% rate hike announced at the last meeting. Figure 4: The EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart According to the H4 chart, the nearest resistance is at 1.0560 - 1.0600. The next resistance is then at 1.0760-1.0770. Current support is at 1.0340 - 1.0370 according to the daily chart.   The Bank of England raised rates as expected Rising inflation did not leave the Bank of England in dovish mood as it raised its key rate by 0.25% as expected. The current rate is 1.25%. Inflation may be approaching double digits, but the bank could not afford to be more aggressive. In Britain, economic activity has already fallen and the GDP is falling at its fastest pace in a year. On a month-on-month basis, the GDP in Britain fell by 0.3%.  Manufacturing production fell by 1% in April. Figure 5: The GBP/USD on H4 and daily chart The GBP/USD currency pair had a very dramatic week, first breaking below 1.20, only to stage an unprecedented rally later. Anyway, according to the H4 chart and also the daily chart, the pound is below the SMA 100 moving average, which indicates a bearish sentiment. There are also clear lower lows and lower highs on the daily chart, confirming the downtrend.   The UK interest rate hike did send the GBP/USD currency pair to 1.24, but the price did not stay there for long time as the pound descended from higher values, underlining the overall downtrend. The nearest resistance is at 1.24. A support is then at 1.1930 - 1.2000.   Central Bank of Japan still dovish   In the early hours of Friday morning, the Bank of Japan was also deciding on rates. There, as expected, everything remains as it was, i.e. the rate remains negative at - 0.10%. This situation means a favourable interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Japanese yen in favour of the dollar. It is therefore no surprise that the USD/JPY pair has reached its highest level since 2002. However, the weak yen is a big problem for the Japanese economy, as it makes imports of basic manufacturing raw materials more expensive and thus contributes to inflation. Figure 6: The USD/JPY on H4 and monthly charts The USD/JPY pair has reached the resistance level at 134.5 - 135.0, the highest level since 2002. A support according to the H4 chart is at 131.50 - 131.80.  
Which stock market sector is currently interesting due to its volatility?

Which stock market sector is currently interesting due to its volatility?

Purple Trading Purple Trading 18.07.2022 07:57
Which stock market sector is currently interesting due to its volatility While long-term investors in physical shares are not too interested in volatility, CFD traders can make potentially very nice profits from it. However, equity markets are vast and it can happen that an interesting title slips through one’s fingers. This article will make sure that it doesn't happen. What is volatility and how is it created If you were to equate the words volatility and nervousness (or moodiness) you would not be far off the mark. Indeed, volatility is really a measure of nervousness in the markets and where there is nervousness, there is also uncertainty. Uncertainty in the markets can arise for many different reasons, but it usually happens before the release of important macroeconomic news (on our economic calendar), you can identify those by the three bulls' heads symbols) or during unexpected events with a major impact on a particular market sector or the geopolitical order of the world (natural disasters, wars).   On the charts of trading platforms, you can recognize a highly volatile market by the dynamically changing price of the instrument, the market is said to be going up or down, and if you switch to a candle chart, you may notice large candles. Conversely, non-volatile, calm markets move sideways without any significant dips or rises. Volatility can also be historical or implied, but we'll write about that another time. Now, let’s talk about how can one potentially profit from volatility and where to find suitable markets to do so.   How to potentially profit from volatility For intraday and swing traders, volatility is the key to their potential success. For traders, often the worst situation is the so-called "sideways" market movement, where the asset in question goes "sideways" without significant movements either up or down. With small and larger price fluctuations, traders can potentially generate interesting profits. One of the most volatile markets is the stock market, where some news can trigger very significant price movements. Events such as important economic reports, a stock split, or an acquisition announcement, for example, can move the price of a given stock. In addition, traders using CFDs for share trading can also use leverage to multiply any gains (and losses) in a given volatility.   The key to potential success is choosing the right stock titles. Some stocks and sectors can be considered more volatile, while others can go longer periods of time without significant fluctuations. So how do you look for volatility? Several indicators measure price movements in stocks, perhaps the most well-known is beta, which measures the volatility of a given stock compared to a benchmark stock index (typically the S&P 500 for US stocks). The beta indicator is listed on most well-known stock sites, but we can calculate it using the following formula: Beta = 1 In this case, the stock is highly correlated with the market and we can expect very similar movements to the benchmark index.   Beta < 1 If the beta is less than 1, we can consider the stock to be potentially less volatile than the stock market.   Beta > 1 Stocks with a beta greater than 1 are theoretically more volatile than the benchmark index. So, for example, if a stock's beta is 1.1, we think of it as 10% more volatile. It is stock titles with a beta above 1 that should be of most interest to investors looking to take advantage of volatility. However, it is not enough to monitor the beta alone, traders should not forget to monitor important news and fundamentals related to the company and the market in general. Thus, it is advisable to choose a few companies whose stocks have been significantly volatile in the past and where we expect strong movements due to positive and negative news to continue. So which sectors may be worth following? In which sectors can you potentially benefit from high volatility? Energy sector The energy companies sector has historically been one of the most volatile, as confirmed by the course of 2022 so far. The price development of energy companies is of course strongly linked to the price of energy commodities. These have had a great year - both natural gas and oil have appreciated by several tens of percent since the beginning of the year. However, this growth has not been without significant fluctuations, often by higher units of percent per day. The current geopolitical situation and growing talk of recession promise to continue the volatility in the sector. In the chart below, you can see the movement of Exxon Mobil Corp shares in recent weeks. Chart 1: Exxon Mobil shares on the MT4 platform on the H1 timeframe along with the 50 and 100-day moving averages Travel industry Shares of companies related to the travel industry have always been very volatile. According to data from the beginning of the year (NYU Stern), even the companies classified as hotels and casinos were the most volatile when measured by beta. Given the coronavirus pandemic, this is not surprising. However, the threat of coronavirus still persists and there is currently the talk of another wave. However, global demand for travel is once again strong. Airlines and hotels are beginning to recover from the previous two dry years. As a result, both positive and negative news promises potential volatility going forward. In the chart below, you can see the movement of Hilton Hotels Corp shares in recent weeks. Chart 2: Hilton Hotels shares on the MT4 platform on the H1 timeframe along with the 50 and 100-day moving averages Technology Technology is a very broad term - some companies in a given sector can be considered "blue chip" stocks, which can generally be less volatile and have the potential to appreciate nicely over time. These include Apple or Microsoft, for example. However, even these will not escape relatively high volatility in 2022. Traders looking for even stronger moves, however, will be more interested in smaller companies such as Uber, Zoom Technologies, Palantir, or PayPal. In the chart below, we can see the evolution of Twitter stock, which has undergone significant volatility in recent weeks. This was linked to the announcement of the acquisition (April gap) and its recent recall by Elon Musk. With both opposing parties facing a court battle, similarly wild news is just more water on the volatility mill. Chart 3: Twitter shares on the MT4 platform on the H1 timeframe along with the 50 and 100-day moving averages There are, of course, more sectors that are significantly volatile. Traders can follow companies in the healthcare sector, for example, where coronavirus vaccine companies are among the most interesting ones. Restaurants or aerospace and chemical companies can also be worth looking at. But few things can move stock markets as significantly as the economic cycle. We'll look at the impact of expansion and recession on stocks in our next article.  
Jason Sen (DayTradeIdeas) Comments On DAX (GER 40) And FTSE 100 - 28/09/22

Jason Sen (DayTradeIdeas) Comments On DAX (GER 40) And FTSE 100 - 28/09/22

Jason Sen Jason Sen 28.09.2022 08:52
Dax 40 December futures momentum is clearly negative as we break the July low at 12380/360. Yesterday we made a high for the day only 35 ticks above first resistance at 12350/400 before prices collapsed as expected. We appear to have formed a 9 month descending triangle pattern & have broken the lower trend line. Yesterday we formed a bear flag so a break below 12000 is the next sell signal. FTSE 100 December futures held Monday's range so same levels apply for today but we are breaking lower over night. Remember when support is broken it usually acts as resistance & vice-versa. Update daily by 06:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Dax December broke support at 13100/13000 for a sell signal, then 3 month trend line support at 12700/650 for another sell signal & now the July low at 12380/360 for a new sell signal. Yesterday we made a high for the day just above first resistance at 12350/400. Then we crashed below 100 month MA support at 12200/150. As I warned you, the last 3 times this MA was tested, it did not hold, in 2009, 2011 & 2020. So now we have broken below 12000 (not a surprise!) & could drop quickly to 11700/700. Gains are likely to be limited of course in the bear trend with resistance at 12100/12200. Shorts need stops above 12300. FTSE December hit 500 day moving average support at 7020/7000 but we have 2 year 38.2% Fibonacci support & June low at 6950/6910. Longs need stops below the 500 week moving average at 6850. A break lower is a major medium term sell signal. Bulls need a break above minor resistance at 7080/7100. A break higher meets strong resistance at 7160/80. Shorts need stops above 7210.
Oil Prices Soar on Prospect of Soft Landing, Eyes Set on $80 Breakout

In The Morning DAX (GER 40) Reminded Us Of 2020. Could FTSE 100 Go Down?

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 28.09.2022 15:13
Stock index contracts are falling today as consumer sentiment declines. This time it's consumers from Europe's largest economy, Germany, where a record of pessimism has been set. Sentiment in Germany vs. DAX quotes Germany's GfK consumer climate index fell to -42.5 in October 2022 from -36.8 the previous month, reaching a new record low. This is the fourth consecutive decline, which was worse than market forecasts had predicted. The latest reading highlighted growing concerns over rising inflation and high energy prices, as well as persistent fears of recession, with income expectations falling to a new record low (down 22.4 points to -67.7), according to data released by GfK Group. Economic expectations also fell 4.3 points to -21.9, reaching their lowest level since May 2009. Meanwhile, willingness to buy fell 2.8 points to -19.5, the lowest level since October 2008, marking the eighth consecutive month of declines. "The current very high inflation rate of almost eight percent is leading to large losses in real income among consumers, and thus a significant reduction in purchasing power," - Rolf Bürkl, GfK consumer expert, said. Source: Conotoxia MT5, DE40, H4 With sentiment weakening, but also with increasing chances of further interest rate hikes whether in the United States or the Eurozone, as well as a perceived energy crisis looming this winter, the German DAX index's stock price has set new local lows. At 10:19 GMT+3, the DE40 was down 1.15 percent and at its lowest level since November 2020. That's when the markets were hit by the autumn wave of the covid outbreak, and moments later a new upward wave followed with news of a successful vaccine. Then the bottom was established in the 11500 point area, and it seems that it could be a potential support for DE40. London Stock Exchange quotes It is impossible not to mention the UK stock market, which seemed to defend itself from declines for a long time. Now, however, the FTSE100 index, too, may be heading south. The UK100 instrument on the Conotoxia MT5 platform is down 1 percent to 6898 points as of 10:23 GMT+3. This week, Britain's main index hit its lowest level since March 2022. Source: Conotoxia MT5, UK100, W1 The London Stock Exchange appears to be under pressure from lingering concerns about the country's economic outlook, exacerbated by a lack of commitment to fiscal discipline. The budget plan of the UK's new finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng, which includes historic tax cuts and a massive increase in debt, has been met with strong opposition from the International Monetary Fund and the Moody's rating agency. If it is implemented, it is possible that the UK could experience a rating cut. Did you know that CFDs allow you to trade on both falling and rising prices? Derivatives make it possible to open buy and sell positions and thus trade on both rising and falling quotes. At Conotoxia, you can choose from CFDs and DMA CFDs on more than 4,000 shares of companies listed on stock exchanges from all over the world. To find a CFD or DMA CFD on a stock, all you need to do is follow 4 simple steps: To access Trading Universe - a state-of-the-art hub of financial, information, investment and social products and services with a single Smart account, register here. Click "Platforms" in the "Invest&Forex" section.Choose one of the accounts: demo or live On the MT5 platform, search for the CFD action you are looking for and drag it into the chart window. Use the one-click trading option or open a new order with the right mouse button. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Stock market news: Worse consumer sentiment and poor stock market sentiment (conotoxia.com)
The Market May Continue To Buy The Pound (GBP) This Week

Australian dollar supported by CPI, gold up. In the UK FTSE 100 seems to feel better as BoE is predicted to take its foot off the gas

Jing Ren Jing Ren 26.10.2022 08:45
AUDUSD grinds higher The Australian dollar finds support from strong CPI in Q3. From the daily chart’s perspective, sentiment remains extremely bearish and the latest rebound could be a mere flag-shaped consolidation near moving averages. The pair has met stiff selling pressure at the support-turned-resistance (0.6400). Its breach on a second attempt means that the bulls will be challenging 0.6540 before they could turn the mood around. Or a dip below 0.6300 could trigger a new round of sell-off below the critical floor at 0.6210.   XAUUSD attempts to bounce Bullion strengthens as a decline in US home prices weighs on Treasury yields. Gold saw bids at the previous low (1615) and a surge above 1660 may have prompted some short interests to cover. A rally fueled by profit-taking will not be enough to reverse the price action unless the precious metal secures follow-up buying. 1670 used to be a demand zone from a rally earlier this month and has become a key resistance. Its breach would carry the price to the previous high at 1730. A break below 1615 would push gold to 1570.   UK 100 tests resistance The FTSE 100 bounces as traders bet on a slowdown in the hiking cycle. The index has clawed back losses from previous sessions but the bias remains down. The price action is testing the supply zone between the 30-day moving average and the daily resistance at 7100 where strong pressure could be expected after the market edged into bearish territory. 6880 is a fresh support and 6820 the short-term bulls’ second line of defence. Their breach would invalidate the latest rebound and send the index below 6700.
US dollar recoups losses as Fed warns of the higher-than-expected "ultimate" interest rate target

US dollar recoups losses as Fed warns of the higher-than-expected "ultimate" interest rate target

Jing Ren Jing Ren 03.11.2022 08:33
USDCAD finds strong support The US dollar recovered after the Fed cautioned that rates could go higher than expectations. The rally has come to a halt in May 2020’s consolidation area. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling has weighed on short-term sentiment. A tentative break below the daily support 1.3500 has put the bulls under pressure. A bearish breakout would force them to bail out and trigger a deeper correction below 1.3300. 1.3750 is the first resistance and the bulls will need to clear 1.3850 before the uptrend could resume. XAUUSD hits resistance Gold softened after the US dollar regained strength post-FOMC. After the price gave up all the gains from its rally in early October, the latest rebound met stiff selling pressure near the support-turned-resistance 1670. A long bearish wick suggests a rejection of this level. As wrong-footed traders scramble for the exit, 1618 is key in keeping the precious metal afloat. Its break would signal a bearish continuation in the days to come. 1645 is a fresh obstacle where the bears could be looking to double down on the prevailing pessimism. UK 100 struggles for support Equities turned south after the Fed sees a pause in tightening as premature. The FTSE reversed its course at a former support (7200) on the daily chart. The recent rally could use some breathing room after it broke above the daily resistance at 7100. After the RSI swung back into oversold territory, 7080 is the first level to gauge the strength of follow-up interests. The psychological level of 7000 would be an important support to keep the bulls interested. 7200 is a fresh peak and a bullish breakout would carry the index to 7330.

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