barclays

Dax 40 December futures momentum is clearly negative as we break the July low at 12380/360. Yesterday we made a high for the day only 35 ticks above first resistance at 12350/400 before prices collapsed as expected. We appear to have formed a 9 month descending triangle pattern & have broken the lower trend line. Yesterday we formed a bear flag so a break below 12000 is the next sell signal. FTSE 100 December futures held Monday's range so same levels apply for today but we are breaking lower over night. Remember when support is broken it usually acts as resistance & vice-versa. Update daily by 06:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Dax December broke support at 13100/13000 for a sell signal, then 3 month trend line support at 12700/650 for another sell signal & now the July low at 12380/360 for a new sell signal. Yesterday we made a high for the day just above first resistance at 12350/400. Then we crashed below 100 month MA support at 12200/150. As I warned you, the last 3 times this MA was tested, it did not hold, in 2009, 2011 & 2020. So now we have broken below 12000 (not a surprise!) & could drop quickly to 11700/700. Gains are likely to be limited of course in the bear trend with resistance at 12100/12200. Shorts need stops above 12300. FTSE December hit 500 day moving average support at 7020/7000 but we have 2 year 38.2% Fibonacci support & June low at 6950/6910. Longs need stops below the 500 week moving average at 6850. A break lower is a major medium term sell signal. Bulls need a break above minor resistance at 7080/7100. A break higher meets strong resistance at 7160/80. Shorts need stops above 7210.

Stock index contracts are falling today as consumer sentiment declines. This time it's consumers from Europe's largest economy, Germany, where a record of pessimism has been set. Sentiment in Germany vs. DAX quotes Germany's GfK consumer climate index fell to -42.5 in October 2022 from -36.8 the previous month, reaching a new record low. This is the fourth consecutive decline, which was worse than market forecasts had predicted. The latest reading highlighted growing concerns over rising inflation and high energy prices, as well as persistent fears of recession, with income expectations falling to a new record low (down 22.4 points to -67.7), according to data released by GfK Group. Economic expectations also fell 4.3 points to -21.9, reaching their lowest level since May 2009. Meanwhile, willingness to buy fell 2.8 points to -19.5, the lowest level since October 2008, marking the eighth consecutive month of declines. "The current very high inflation rate of almost eight percent is leading to large losses in real income among consumers, and thus a significant reduction in purchasing power," - Rolf Bürkl, GfK consumer expert, said. Source: Conotoxia MT5, DE40, H4 With sentiment weakening, but also with increasing chances of further interest rate hikes whether in the United States or the Eurozone, as well as a perceived energy crisis looming this winter, the German DAX index's stock price has set new local lows. At 10:19 GMT+3, the DE40 was down 1.15 percent and at its lowest level since November 2020. That's when the markets were hit by the autumn wave of the covid outbreak, and moments later a new upward wave followed with news of a successful vaccine. Then the bottom was established in the 11500 point area, and it seems that it could be a potential support for DE40. London Stock Exchange quotes It is impossible not to mention the UK stock market, which seemed to defend itself from declines for a long time. Now, however, the FTSE100 index, too, may be heading south. The UK100 instrument on the Conotoxia MT5 platform is down 1 percent to 6898 points as of 10:23 GMT+3. This week, Britain's main index hit its lowest level since March 2022. Source: Conotoxia MT5, UK100, W1 The London Stock Exchange appears to be under pressure from lingering concerns about the country's economic outlook, exacerbated by a lack of commitment to fiscal discipline. The budget plan of the UK's new finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng, which includes historic tax cuts and a massive increase in debt, has been met with strong opposition from the International Monetary Fund and the Moody's rating agency. If it is implemented, it is possible that the UK could experience a rating cut. Did you know that CFDs allow you to trade on both falling and rising prices? Derivatives make it possible to open buy and sell positions and thus trade on both rising and falling quotes. At Conotoxia, you can choose from CFDs and DMA CFDs on more than 4,000 shares of companies listed on stock exchanges from all over the world. To find a CFD or DMA CFD on a stock, all you need to do is follow 4 simple steps: To access Trading Universe - a state-of-the-art hub of financial, information, investment and social products and services with a single Smart account, register here. Click "Platforms" in the "Invest&Forex" section.Choose one of the accounts: demo or live On the MT5 platform, search for the CFD action you are looking for and drag it into the chart window. Use the one-click trading option or open a new order with the right mouse button. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Stock market news: Worse consumer sentiment and poor stock market sentiment (conotoxia.com)

AUDUSD grinds higher The Australian dollar finds support from strong CPI in Q3. From the daily chart’s perspective, sentiment remains extremely bearish and the latest rebound could be a mere flag-shaped consolidation near moving averages. The pair has met stiff selling pressure at the support-turned-resistance (0.6400). Its breach on a second attempt means that the bulls will be challenging 0.6540 before they could turn the mood around. Or a dip below 0.6300 could trigger a new round of sell-off below the critical floor at 0.6210.   XAUUSD attempts to bounce Bullion strengthens as a decline in US home prices weighs on Treasury yields. Gold saw bids at the previous low (1615) and a surge above 1660 may have prompted some short interests to cover. A rally fueled by profit-taking will not be enough to reverse the price action unless the precious metal secures follow-up buying. 1670 used to be a demand zone from a rally earlier this month and has become a key resistance. Its breach would carry the price to the previous high at 1730. A break below 1615 would push gold to 1570.   UK 100 tests resistance The FTSE 100 bounces as traders bet on a slowdown in the hiking cycle. The index has clawed back losses from previous sessions but the bias remains down. The price action is testing the supply zone between the 30-day moving average and the daily resistance at 7100 where strong pressure could be expected after the market edged into bearish territory. 6880 is a fresh support and 6820 the short-term bulls’ second line of defence. Their breach would invalidate the latest rebound and send the index below 6700.

USDCAD finds strong support The US dollar recovered after the Fed cautioned that rates could go higher than expectations. The rally has come to a halt in May 2020’s consolidation area. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling has weighed on short-term sentiment. A tentative break below the daily support 1.3500 has put the bulls under pressure. A bearish breakout would force them to bail out and trigger a deeper correction below 1.3300. 1.3750 is the first resistance and the bulls will need to clear 1.3850 before the uptrend could resume. XAUUSD hits resistance Gold softened after the US dollar regained strength post-FOMC. After the price gave up all the gains from its rally in early October, the latest rebound met stiff selling pressure near the support-turned-resistance 1670. A long bearish wick suggests a rejection of this level. As wrong-footed traders scramble for the exit, 1618 is key in keeping the precious metal afloat. Its break would signal a bearish continuation in the days to come. 1645 is a fresh obstacle where the bears could be looking to double down on the prevailing pessimism. UK 100 struggles for support Equities turned south after the Fed sees a pause in tightening as premature. The FTSE reversed its course at a former support (7200) on the daily chart. The recent rally could use some breathing room after it broke above the daily resistance at 7100. After the RSI swung back into oversold territory, 7080 is the first level to gauge the strength of follow-up interests. The psychological level of 7000 would be an important support to keep the bulls interested. 7200 is a fresh peak and a bullish breakout would carry the index to 7330.

FTSE 100 December reversed from the 7190/7200 targeting minor support at 7170/50 then strong support at 7110/7090 with a low for the day exactly here. Longs need stops below 7070. Today's Analysis. Dax December broke the 3 week rising trend line, from the October recovery - a counter trend move. So it is likely that the 2022 bear trend has resumed. However best support at 13150/100 today. Holding here allows a recovery to first resistance at 13250/350. Shorts need stops above 13400. First support at 13150/100 but longs need stops below 13050. A break lower targets second 12950/900. A break below 12850 is a medium term sell signal & confirms the resumption of the bear trend. A weekly close below tomorrow night is further confirmation of course. FTSE December a low for the day exactly at strong support at 7110/7090. Longs need stops below 7070. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 7030/20 then 6970/60. Longs at strong support at 7110/7090 can target 7180/90.

The topic of environmental protection has grown significantly this year. There is more and more information that companies and institutions are doing to move to A Low-Carbon Economy. The subject of same-sex marriages raises a lot of controversy, but there are countries where special laws are signed to protect them. Now the United States has joined these countries. In this article: UK investment bank Buying investors and its challenges The Respect for Marriage Act Taxes UK investment bank Earlier this year, UN climate scientists warned that the world was running out of time to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Banks' climate efforts are increasingly in the spotlight, with activists and politicians expressing concern that the industry is not doing enough to manage the risk of global warming. UK investment bank Barclays is addressing this and has increased its sustainability and transition finance targets to $1 trillion as part of its efforts to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy. A new Barclays goal that will fund anything that can help protect the environment. Thus, the bank becomes one of the pro-ecological institutions, encouraging customers to use its services. Exclusive: Barclays turbocharges 2030 sustainable finance target to $1 trln https://t.co/6NUb65INrv pic.twitter.com/rC31srQ5kv — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) December 14, 2022 Buying investors face operational challenges Changes are happening faster than we think, especially in the area of financial markets. Buying investors face operational challenges related to changes resulting from standardization, the potential of cloud resources and natural language processing, scalability and diversification of asset classes. Like everything that changes, it raises many questions, especially those about threats. Matthew York, Buy-Side Product Strategy at Bloomberg, shared what he considers to be the biggest concerns stemming from these issues. Buy-side investors are facing operational challenges from changes driven by standardization, the potential of cloud resources and natural language processing, scalability and diversification of asset classes.https://t.co/aGKJmGHRrX — Bloomberg Terminal (@TheTerminal) December 13, 2022 Read next:  The Japanese Yen Stabilized Below 138 To The US Dollar| FXMAG.COM President Joe Biden signed the bipartisan Marriage Respect Act President Joe Biden signed the bipartisan Marriage Respect Act on Tuesday, codifying legal protections for same-sex and interracial couples. The bill passed with bipartisan support in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Biden's views, like many Americans, shifted towards supporting same-sex marriage throughout his life. Earlier, during his long tenure in the Senate, Biden voted for a bill that would limit the advancement of LGBTQ rights. The Marriage Respect Act does not guarantee the right to marry. It specifies that states must recognize same-sex marriages across state lines and that same-sex couples have the same federal benefits as any married couple. Biden signs bill to protect same-sex and interracial marriageshttps://t.co/v1qJtHLGkg — CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) December 13, 2022 Taxes Taxes are everyone's bane. The higher they are, the more you look for a way to minimize these costs. In most cases, gift law is so complicated that it makes the taxpayer dizzy. We know there's no escaping taxes, but how do tax rates and tax brackets affect how much income tax you pay? Tax rates and brackets can be a source of confusion for many people. Check out this video for information on how to calculate your effective tax rate. https://t.co/4eoZeMAShb — Charles Schwab Corp (@CharlesSchwab) December 13, 2022

Barclays FY 22 – 15/02 – the last 12 months have been somewhat of a mixed bag for Barclays share price, with the shares dropping to an 18-month low last October. We've seen a decent rebound since then but this year has been a challenging one for the bank. The bank has faced challenges over litigation as well as governance with operating expenses set to rise to £16.7bn. This was due to the bank having to take a charge of £540m in respect of over issuance of securities, which it had to buy back. In Q3 the bank saw total revenues come in at £5.9bn, a 9% increase from the same quarter a year ago. The corporate and investment bank saw a 10% decline to £2.8bn, however this was offset by a big increase in its consumer, card and payments division which saw a 54% increase to £1.24bn. The bank also set aside £381m in respect of credit impairments, pushing up total impairment provisions to £722m year to date. Operating costs also rose by 14% during the quarter to £3.94bn, as profits after tax for the quarter, rose by 9% to £1.7bn. Year to date Barclays profits are down 19% largely down to the fact that last year saw profits boosted by the release of loan loss provisions which flattered the numbers.  NatWest Group FY 22 – 17/02 – when NatWest reported its Q3 numbers at the end of October the share price dropped sharply after reporting an increase in loan loss provisions as well as concerns that a further windfall tax might be levied on its profits. Since then, the shares have gone from strength to strength, rising to their best levels since May 2018, as concerns over a sharp slowdown in the UK economy have receded. In many ways the actions the bank took in Q3 where sensible planning as the bank posted a modest Q3 attributable profit of £187m, a sharp fall from the £1bn profit seen in Q2. The reason for the sharp slowdown was due to a loss of £652m on the discontinued Ulster Bank operations and the reclassification of its mortgage book, so was very much a one-off. It is notable that NatWest has taken more aggressive action with respect to impairments. In H1 impairments were a modest £26m, however Q3's numbers saw that provision increased by £247m, while operating expenses also saw a sharp increase compared to Q2, to just shy of £1.9bn, although they are still lower from a year ago. When all of this is stripped out the underlying performance was still slightly weaker than Q2 as operating profits came in at £1.09bn, slightly shy of expectations, and a £310m fall from Q2. As far as the internals are concerned the higher interest rate environment saw net interest margin increase in Q3 to 2.99%, bringing NIM year to date up to 2.73% from 2.59% in H1. On the business side of things net loans have look steady throughout the year, rising to £192.8bn in Q3, and up from £188.7bn in Q2 and £184.7bn in Q1. This increase was mainly down to new mortgage lending of £3.9bn. This is likely to have slowed in Q4. Customer deposits increased to £190.9bn, a rise of £400m. On the outlook NatWest said they expect total income to be around £12.8bn with NIM expected to rise to 2.8% for the year. Read next: Forex Weekly Summary: EUR/USD Closed Below 1.07, GBP/USD started the week at 1.2050 and ended that way too| FXMAG.COM Centrica FY22 – 16/02 – Centrica shareholders have had a hard time of it over the last 10 years, with the shares falling to record lows of 29p back in March 2020. It's been a long hard slog off those lows since then even as the shares push back towards the 100p level. In January the British Gas owner upgraded its full year guidance for the second time in two months, saying they expect full year adjusted EPS of above 30p per share, and that net cash is expected to be above £1bn. The company also announced a share buyback program in November inviting criticism as consumers continue to get squeezed by high energy costs. The company has spent money reopening the Rough gas storage facility which was closed in 2017, while also setting aside £50m to help its customers, although that rings hollow given the recent reports of forced installation of pre-payment meters by third party contractors on its behalf. In its H1 numbers adjusted EPS came in at 10.2p, so an expectation of adjusted EPS of above 30p is quite a leap. Airbnb Q4 22 – 14/02 – Airbnb shares have got off to a decent start to the year, sliding to a record low in late December, the shares have managed to rebound over 35% year to date. Last year's declines were mainly down to concerns over slow bookings growth despite the relaxation of Covid restrictions. In Q2, bookings came in below expectations at 103.7m even though profits improved and revenues came in at just over $2bn. In Q3 this improved further to $2.83bn in revenues, an increase of 29% on the same period a year ago, and the best quarter ever. The Q3 numbers were impressive across the board, with gross booking value per nights up at $156.44, and profits above expectations at $1.79c a share. Unfortunately, Airbnb issued weak guidance for Q4 saying they expected revenues to drop sharply to $1.8bn and $1.88bn, which prompted further weakness. Q4 does generally tend to see a modest slowdown during the winter months, however the extent of the drop in revenue caught a lot of investors unawares. Profits are expected to come in at $0.33c a share.   Cisco Systems Q2 23 – 15/02 – back in May Cisco Systems issued a profits warning citing disruptions from supply chain disruptions, alongside problems in China which have impacted its margins. When Cisco reported in November the company upgraded its full year guidance. At the beginning Q1 Cisco said it expected revenue growth of between 2% and 4%, and profits of $0.83c a share. In November these numbers came in much better with reported profits of $0.86c a share on revenues of $13.6bn. Q2 profits are expected to come in at a similar level of $0.85c a share, while upgrading full year profits to between $3.51c to $3.58c and full year revenue growth of between 4.5% and 6.5%.        Deere Q1 23 – 17/02 – at one point last year Deere's share price hit a 15 month low after a profits warning after the agricultural equipment maker downgraded its expectations for full year profits to between $7bn to $7.2bn, from $7bn to $7.4bn. due to downward pressure on operating margins. This proved to be overly cautious with the shares rebounding strongly since then, and were confirmed when in Q4 revenues came in at $15.54bn and profits of $7.44c a share, well above expectations of $7.10c a share.  Annual profits came in at $7.13bn, while revenues for the year rose to $52.58bn, a rise of 19%, as the company managed to pass on price increases to its clients. The agricultural equipment maker also upped its forecast for 2023 profits to between $8bn and $8.5bn, on the back of strong demand for tractors, from farmers who are getting higher prices for their crops. Profits are expected to come in at $5.50c a share. 

Barclays Q1 23 – 27/04 – Barclays shares briefly hit their lowest levels in over 2 years earlier this year on the back of the turmoil in the banking sector during the month of March, although their Q4 and full-year numbers had already started to undermine the gains seen since the start of the year. Notwithstanding the losses incurred in H1 due to over issuance of debt securities have dragged on its performance, the miss on its Q4 numbers saw the shares slide sharply. For Q4, pre-tax profits came in short of expectations as did revenues. Q4 attributable profit came in at £1bn, pushing full-year group attributable profit to £5bn. The corporate and investment bank saw a 2% decline in Q4 revenues to £2.57bn with a disappointing performance across the board. Operating expenses over the year came in as expected at £16.7bn, up from £14.66bn in 2021, with £1.6bn of that related to litigation and conduct charges. Credit impairment charges were £1.2bn, with another £700m set aside in Q4. The dividend was increased to 7.25p from 6p, with the bank pledging a buyback of £500m. Barclays CEO Venkat expressed caution over global economic conditions but was optimistic about the outlook. Nonetheless, the turbulence seen in Q1 is likely to see a weaker performance from its international bank which is already struggling to generate a decent return on equity.           NatWest Group Q1 23 – 28/04 – when NatWest reported its full-year results back in February the shares were trading just below their highest levels since May 2018, as concerns over a sharp slowdown in the UK economy receded. The shares have retreated a touch since then touching 3-month lows in March, largely due to concerns over whether the strong performance seen in 2022 can be repeated in 2023, while the recent uncertainty around the European banking sector and the fallout over Credit Suisse didn't help. In Q4, profits rose to an impressive £1.26bn, a big increase on the £187m in Q3, taking full-year profits to £3.34bn, up from £2.95bn a year ago. Total impairments for the year rose to £337m, which given the uncertain outlook comes across as sensible financial contingency planning. The higher interest rate environment saw net interest margin increase from 2.99% in Q3 to 3.2% in Q4, bringing NIM year-to-date up to 2.85% from 2.30% a year ago. The bank proposed a final dividend of 10p as well as a share buyback program of £800m in the first half of 2023, taking the total amount paid to shareholders £5.1bn, or 53p per share, which is good news for the UK government which still holds a 48% stake in the bank. On the outlook, the bank was cautious with the bank saying it expects to generate full-year income of £14.8bn, and a full-year NIM of 3.2%, based on a base rate of 4%. The current base rate is already above this at 4.25% and could well go higher next month to 4.5%, potentially pushing NIM higher. Impairments are expected to remain in line with previous forecasts.   Read next: This week's calendar looks striking! US GDP, Bank of Japan rate decision, Sainsbury earnings and more| FXMAG.COM Microsoft Q3 23 – 25/04 – when Microsoft reported in Q2 their numbers were by and large positive despite some weak areas, however, the downbeat guidance initially saw the shares come under pressure as the penny started to drop that the next few quarters are likely to be challenging for even the most competitive businesses. Q2 revenues came in at $52.7bn, with cloud revenue rising 22% to $27.1bn, driven by growth in AI and Intelligent Cloud. Net income fell to $16.43bn from $18.77bn primarily due to a $1.2bn charge as a result of the decision to cut 10,000 jobs and revise its hardware line-up. On the downside, Personal Computing revenue fell 19% to $14.2bn, with OEM revenue falling 39%.  Since then, the shares have rebounded to just shy of the highs seen last August. Microsoft said the next few quarters were likely to see a further slowdown in growth, even in strong areas like Azure, and that new business was already becoming more difficult. They also said that existing customers were asking for its help to make cost savings around their existing services. Microsoft also said subscriptions were also likely to slow, and that revenues would remain flat in Q3, at between $50.5bn and $51.5bn, with further weakness in personal computing expected, at around $12bn, while being offset with continued strength in Azure. We may find out more detail about the challenges facing the Activision deal. Profits are expected to come in at $2.23c a share.

 Barclays H1 23 – 27/07   Barclays has had a patchy quarter share price wise, although it hasn't as yet traded below the 2 and a half year lows it hit back in March at 128p. It has found it difficult to push back above the highs seen back on May at 161.50p.   In April the bank reported total revenues of £7.2bn, driven by a strong performance in its investment banking division which saw revenues come in higher than expected at £3.97bn, an increase of 1% from a year ago. FICC was a particular standout, generating £1.79bn, however equities trading was disappointing at £704m.   The bank also performed well in its consumer division which saw a 47% increase in revenues to £1.3bn. The bank set aside £524m in respect of credit impairment charges. Even though total operating expenses didn't change that much from last year, with last year's costs boosted by a £523m impairment, it is notable that operating costs this year increased by 15% to £4.1bn.   Net interest margin increased to 3.18%, with the bank saying they expected to see a full year NIM in excess of 3.2%. Profits attributable to shareholders rose 27% to £1.78bn.   H1 revenues are expected to see an increase to £13.88bn, from £13.2bn a year ago. Further impairments are expected in Q2, with another £581m set to be added taking H1 impairments to £1,182m.

US The Fed is expected to resume raising rates at the July 26th FOMC meeting.  Fed funds futures see a 96% chance that the central bank will deliver a quarter-point rate rise, bringin the  target range to between 5.25% and 5.50%, almost a 22-year high. The Fed delivered 10 straight rate increases and then paused at the June FOMC meeting.  The Fed is going to raise rates on Wednesday and seems poised to be noncommittal with what they will do in September.  The economic data has been mixed (strong labor data/cooling pricing pressures) and that should support Powell’s case that they still could deliver a soft landing, a slowdown that avoids a recession.  This seems like it will be the last rate hike in the Fed’s tightening cycle, but we will have two more inflation reports before the Fed will need to commit that more rate hikes are no longer necessary. The Fed will steal the spotlight but there are several other important economic indicators and earnings that could move markets.  Monday’s flash PMI report should show both the manufacturing and service sectors continue to soften, with services still remaining in expansion territory. Tuesday’s Conference Board’s consumer confidence report could fuel expectations of a soft landing. Thursday’s first look at Q2 GDP is expected to show growth cooled from 2.0% to 1.8% (0.9%-2.1% consensus range) as consumer spending moderated.  Friday contains the release of personal income and spending data alongside the Fed’s preferred inflation and wage gauges. The Q2 Employment Cost Index (ECI) is expected to dip from 1.2% to 1.1%. The personal consumption expenditures price index is expected to cool both on a monthly and annual basis (M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior;Y/Y: 4.2%e v 4.6% prior). Earnings will be massive this week as we get updates from 3M, AbbVie, Alphabet, Airbus, AstraZeneca, AT&T, Barclays, BASF, Biogen, BNP Paribas, Boeing, Boston Scientific, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Chevron, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Comcast, Exxon, Ford Motor, General Electric, General Motors, GSK, Hermes International, Honeywell International, Intel, Mastercard, McDonald’s, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nestle, PG&E, Procter & Gamble, Raytheon Technologies, Samsung Electronics, STMicroelectronics, Texas Instruments, Thermo Fisher Scientific, UniCredit, Unilever, Union Pacific, Verizon Communications, Visa, and Volkswagen

NatWest cuts guidance as pressure grows on the board over Farage case By Michael Hewson (Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)   With all the distractions that are going on at the boardroom level it's a relief to be able to focus on the fundamentals when it comes to the NatWest share price.   The share price has lost quite a lot of ground this week falling from 1-month highs last week on the back of the resignation of CEO Alison Rose, as well as disappointment over the results of its sector peers of Barclays and Lloyds. The reaction to Lloyds Banking Group numbers was especially puzzling given that they raised their NIM guidance for the year despite seeing a fall to 3.14% in Q2. The main concern in the wake of the Q1 numbers was pressure on margins, as well as higher costs against a backdrop of challenging economic conditions, which prompted the bank to be cautious about its full year guidance which the left unchanged, saying they expected to generate full-year income of £14.8bn, and a full-year NIM of 3.2%, based on a base rate of 4%.     Given that the base rate is likely to remain well above that figure and looks set to move to 5.25% next week this seemed overly cautious at the time. Today's Q2 numbers have seen attributable profits to shareholders come in at just over £1bn, a slight fall from the same period last year, as well as being lower than the £1.28bn in Q1, pushing H1 profits up to £2.3bn. The bank, like Lloyds before it also saw net interest margin slip back in Q2 to 3.13%, from 3.27% in Q1, although unlike Lloyds, NatWest have cut their full year forecast to 3.15% from 3.2%, based on the assumption of a Bank of England base rate of 5.5%.       NatWest also said it was planning to buyback another £500m of its own shares, while paying an interim dividend of 5.5p a share. On the business itself, net loans saw an increase to £352.7bn during the first half of the year, with £5.9bn of that being new mortgage lending, however most of that growth came in Q1. Customer deposits declined by £11.8bn during the first half, although we did see a modest rise in deposits of £2bn in Q2, as customers put money back into their accounts as the bank raised savings rates to help stop the outflow. These higher rates have been reflected in the total income numbers in the retail banking unit which saw Q2 total income fall sharply from the levels we saw in Q1. This increased competition for customer deposits helps explain the fall in NIM as the savings landscape becomes more competitive. This is likely to cap the upside for NIM, however it is also important to remember that NIM is still higher at 3.2% than it was a year ago when it was at 2.58%     The bank added another £153m in respect of non-performing loans in Q2 to add to the £70m it added in Q1. All in all, today's results have come in pretty much in line with its peers earlier this week, however investors will be looking to ensure that recent events around the departure of CEO Alison Rose, and as well as the departure of the Coutts CEO Peter Flavel, are brought to a swift conclusion. There is a concern that the uncertainty around current events will prove a distraction to senior management, and there are also serious questions to answer around the judgement of chairman Howard Davies who thought that the conduct of outgoing CEO Alison Rose did not merit a stricter sanction.     Trust and confidence in banking are a key pillar when it comes to banking relationships with client confidentiality at the core of it. You can be sure that if a similar situation had occurred with a more junior member of staff the sanction would have been more severe, and while no-one would question Alison Rose's role in leading the bank over the past few years, no-one is above being held to account when it comes to GDPR and rules of the code of conduct. It seems odd that Howard Davies failed to realise this, and Rose's subsequent resignation casts serious doubt over his judgement.   While Davies has maintained that his intention is to remain as Chairman in this morning's earnings call, citing the confidence of main shareholders and the regulators, it is hard to see how he can. It's quite likely that in order to restore confidence in the management of the bank, pressure could well grow for him to step down in the coming days.