The Impact of Generative AI on China's Economy and Investment Landscape
Saxo Bank 12.09.2023 11:11
Implications for China's economy and investors' perspectives
China aims to foster a virtuous circle of economic growth through technology innovation, technology application, business model innovation, productivity enhancement, economic growth, and further investment in technology. In a globalised world, this circle could be sustained even if certain critical technologies were lacking. However, in the fragmentation game that increasingly dominates the world’s order, falling behind in technology innovation could disrupt the virtuous circle and result in declining productivity, ultimately hindering economic development.
Investors take this risk into account when considering investments in China, along with factors like the slower-than-expected economic recovery and various constraints. These constraints include a highly leveraged economy, particularly among local governments and the property sector, which somewhat restricts the Chinese authorities' ability to implement stimulus measures without potentially causing future financial turmoil.
The extent of the impact on productivity in the Chinese internet sector, manufacturing sector and the broader economy, as well as how it will unfold, remains uncertain. Some investors positioning themselves for these changes are looking at companies capable of developing generative AI applications, manufacturing AI-related hardware, or producing AI-relevant microchips, semiconductor materials or equipment. Some Chinese companies actively sought after by investors include Baidu, 360 Security, Lenovo, Shanghai Boasight Software, Iflytek, Unisplendour, ZTE and Foxconn Industrial Internet, which are listed on the mainland and Hong Kong stock exchanges.[i]
While major Chinese internet and technology companies are aware of the need to adapt their business models to potential disruptions, their generative AI products and new applications have yet to demonstrate promising prospects and significant impacts on their revenues.
Baidu has shown some progress with its early focus on AI and the launch of ERNIE, an AI model capable of search, dialogue and content generation. Xiaomi continues to pursue an AI and Internet of Things development path, utilising deep learning to connect mobile and IoT devices. Tencent has developed its own AI models, including HunYuan and WeLM, facilitating text generation, dialogue, translation and gaming. Alibaba has created the Multi-Modality to Multi-Modality Multitask Mega-transformer (M6) model, while JD.COM has come up with pre-trained language models for natural language understanding and generation. Bytedance contributes a multilingual machine translation model, and NetEase offers the YuYan language model.
These efforts are commendable but yet to have meaningful impact on their business models and much more needs to be done. Some of these stocks which trade at reasonable valuations based on their existing businesses may present interesting investment opportunities, but investors should take into consideration that high growth could be something of the past for these companies.
As technology innovation and productivity growth hold the key to success, companies that advance in intelligent manufacturing which employs generative AI may be the next “new-new thing” to watch in China in the coming years. Investors can potentially benefit from following developments in this area.
Concluding remarks
China's drive towards a virtuous circle of economic growth, fuelled by technology innovation and productivity enhancement, is of utmost importance. Investors evaluating China should acknowledge the challenges posed by generative AI, while also recognising potential investment prospects in companies poised to leverage these transformative changes.