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4Q22/23 net loss much higher than expected due to goodwill write-off

Skarbiec Holding released 4Q22/23 (calendar 2Q23) figures with the following highlights:

  • In 4Q2022/23 (calendar 2Q23) Skarbiec Holding reported net loss of PLN -16.5m vs. our expectations at PLN -0.9m (and vs. net loss of PLN -1.2m in calendar 1Q23 and PLN -3.0m in 2Q22). Deep net loss was driven by goodwill write-off (PLN 15.6m). Revenues came broadly in line with our expectations and slightly higher costs were offset by slightly better net financial income. Excluding write-off, net loss came broadly in line with our expectations. 

 

    Fixed fee decreased -3% y/y, but improved 12% q/q with margin on average AUM at 1.08% (vs. 1.02% in 1Q23 and 1.07% in 2Q22). Quarterly growth of fixed fee was driven by rising AUM (5% y/y, 2% q/q) coupled with rising share of equity funds in AUM (41% in 2Q23 vs. 39% in 1Q23 and 40% in 2Q22).  Success fee in 2Q23 came in at PLN 0.7m (vs. PLN 0.4m in 1Q23 and PLN 0m in 2Q22).

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What are investors afraid of? | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 18.05.2022 15:42
As it does every month, Bank of America conducts a survey of fund managers with nearly $900 billion AUM. Its results in the May edition seem very interesting, indicating the risks and actions of institutional investors. According to the survey, investors appear to be hoarding cash as the outlook for global economic growth falls to an all-time low and fears of stagflation increase. Cash holdings among investors have reached their highest level since September 2001, according to the report. A survey this month of investors managing $872 billion also found that hawkish central banks are seen as the biggest risk to financial markets. A global recession came in second, and concerns about stagflation rose to their highest level since 2008. The findings could show an uninspiring outlook for global equities, which are already on track for their longest weekly losing streak since the global financial crisis, as central banks turn off the tap on money at a time of stubbornly high inflation. The BofA report said the stock market may be in a bear market, but the final lows have not yet been reached. More interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve are still expected, and the market is not yet in full capitulation. The BofA survey also found that technology stocks are under the most pressure since 2006. Overall, investors were most attuned to holding cash, and are least inclined to go for: emerging market stocks, eurozone stocks and bonds at the moment. The report also found that the so-called most crowded trades at the moment are long positions on oil (28%), short positions on U.S. Treasury bonds (25%), long on technology stocks (14%), and long on bitcoin (8%). According to the respondents, the value to which the S&P 500 index would have to fall for the Fed to start refraining from further monetary policy tightening falls at the level of 3529, i.e. about 12% below the current level. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Skarbiec Holding Reports 4Q22/23 Net Loss Higher Than Expected Due to Goodwill Write-Off

GPW’s Analytical Coverage Support Programme 3.0 GPW’s Analytical Coverage Support Programme 3.0 26.10.2023 14:10
4Q22/23 net loss much higher than expected due to goodwill write-off Skarbiec Holding released 4Q22/23 (calendar 2Q23) figures with the following highlights: In 4Q2022/23 (calendar 2Q23) Skarbiec Holding reported net loss of PLN -16.5m vs. our expectations at PLN -0.9m (and vs. net loss of PLN -1.2m in calendar 1Q23 and PLN -3.0m in 2Q22). Deep net loss was driven by goodwill write-off (PLN 15.6m). Revenues came broadly in line with our expectations and slightly higher costs were offset by slightly better net financial income. Excluding write-off, net loss came broadly in line with our expectations.    Fixed fee decreased -3% y/y, but improved 12% q/q with margin on average AUM at 1.08% (vs. 1.02% in 1Q23 and 1.07% in 2Q22). Quarterly growth of fixed fee was driven by rising AUM (5% y/y, 2% q/q) coupled with rising share of equity funds in AUM (41% in 2Q23 vs. 39% in 1Q23 and 40% in 2Q22).  Success fee in 2Q23 came in at PLN 0.7m (vs. PLN 0.4m in 1Q23 and PLN 0m in 2Q22).   Distribution costs came in at PLN 5.8m (-4% y/y, 6% q/q) and represented 41% of fixed fee (vs. 43% in 1Q23 and 41% in 2Q22). Total HR costs increased 11% y/y (7% q/q) and other costs declined -10% y/y (7% q/q).   At the end of 2Q23 AUM of Skarbiec TFI came in at PLN 5,340m (5% y/y, 2% q/q). Y/y growth was driven by rising assets of equity&mixed funds (9% y/y) and debt funds (6% y/y). AUM of portfolios were broadly flat (1% y/y) and dedicated funds saw -11% y/y drop. On a q/q basis rising AUM of equity (9% q/q), debt (3% q/q) and dedicated funds (4% q/q) were only partly offset by declining assets of portfolios (-6% q/q).   In 2Q23 net flows to Skarbiec TFI came in at PLN -7m vs. PLN 45m in 1Q23.    Our view: NEUTRAL 2Q23 (calendar) was another quarter in a row with net loss of Skarbiec Holding. While loss was much higher than expected, it was driven by write-off of goodwill (of Skarbiec TFI), that we perceive as one-off. Revenues came broadly in line with our expectations and slightly higher costs were offset by slightly better net financial income. Excluding write-off, net loss came broadly in line with our expectations. Quarterly improvement was driven by improvement in fixed fee (12% q/q), that was only partly offset by higher costs. Fixed fee was supported by rising AUM (5% q/q, 2% q/q) coupled with rising share of equity funds in total AUM.   We find the calendar 2Q23 numbers of Skarbiec Holding as neutral. In our earnings estimate we had assumed, that Skarbiec Holding would be able to generate positive quarterly results more permanently not earlier than in mid-2024 (apart from calendar 4Q23 supported by success fee). Fund managers are being helped by declining interest rates and neutral or supportive market environment. We point at rising AUM of Skarbiec TFI also in calendar 3Q23 (13% y/y, 1% q/q) and positive net flows (PLN 28m). We assume Skarbiec Holding to report PLN 4.1m net profit in 2023/24e. At the end of 2Q23 Skarbiec had PLN 103m of cash on the balance sheet (vs. PLN 110m in 1Q23) vs. current MCAP of PLN 139m.        
Robust 1Q24 Performance: Strong Revenue Growth and Improved Operational Efficiency

Quercus TFI 3Q23 Net Profit Beats Estimates, Records PLN 17m Provision for Success Fee

GPW’s Analytical Coverage Support Programme 3.0 GPW’s Analytical Coverage Support Programme 3.0 19.10.2023 14:37
3Q23 net profit slightly above estimates. PLN 17m provision for success fee. Quercus TFI released 3Q23 figures with the following highlights: ■ 3Q23 net profit of Quercus TFI came in at PLN 4.7m (60% y/y, 15% q/q) and was 6% above our estimates (PLN 4.4m). Slight earnings beat was driven by slightly lower than expected costs. Revenues and net financial income came broadly in line with our forecasts. ■ Management fee in 3Q23 amounted to PLN 13.9m (23% y/y, 11% q/q) and was in line with our expectations. In 3Q23 share of low margin debt funds in total AUM came in at 43% on average (vs. 43% in 2Q23 and 51% in 3Q22). Revenues from purchased redemption orders went up 12% y/y (0% q/q). ■ At the end of 3Q23 total provision for success fee increased to PLN 17.1m from PLN 11.3m in 2Q23. ■ Total costs in 3Q23 came in at PLN 21.5m (17% y/y, 1% q/q) and were 2% below our estimates. Distribution costs went up 19% y/y, staff costs increased 9% y/y, external services costs grew 6% y/y and other costs increased 49% y/y. ■ At the end of 3Q23 AUM of Quercus TFI came in at PLN 3,821m (29% y/y, 11% q/q). Y/y growth was driven by rising assets of QRS Ochrony Kapitału (51% y/y), QRS Agresywny (76% y/y) and QRS Dłużny Krótkoterminowy (58% y/y). Quarterly growth of total assets was driven by rising AUM of QRS Ochrony Kapitału (38% q/q) and QRS Agresywny (36% q/q). ■ In 3Q23 net flows to Quercus TFI amounted to PLN +331m (vs. PLN 105m in 2Q23 and vs. PLN -350m in 3Q22). In 9M23 net flows came in at PLN 432m vs. PLN -1,167m in FY 2022. ■ Teleconference with CEO takes place today, October 20, at 14:00 via MS Teams (or at Zubra 1 Street, Warsaw, 3 rd floor, room Słodowiec)

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