aud to usd

Relevance up to 13:00 2022-06-24 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Exchange Rates 21.06.2022 analysis

 

Market participants as a whole reacted rather restrainedly to the decision of the central bank to raise the interest rate and to today's speech of the head of the RBA, and the publication of minutes from the June meeting of the bank.

 

Exchange Rates 21.06.2022 analysis

 

AUD remains under pressure, primarily against the US dollar. As of this writing, AUD/USD is trading near 0.6945, continuing to decline towards the lower border of the descending channel on the weekly chart, which is currently below 0.6800.

Given the Fed's propensity to pursue a tighter monetary policy and in anticipation of further strengthening of the US dollar, a deeper decline in AUD/USD should be expected.

 

Exchange Rates 21.06.2022 analysis

 

A breakdown of local support levels 0.6850, 0.6800 will confirm our assu

New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) falls right back down

New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) falls right back down

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 06.05.2022 10:08
The New Zealand dollar has reversed directions on Thursday and is sharply lower. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6418, down a massive 1.90% on the day.   US dollar rebounds after FOMC  The New Zealand dollar is showing plenty of volatility. NZD/USD surged 1.76% on Wednesday but has coughed up all of those gains today. The US dollar lost a step after the FOMC meeting, even though the Fed hiked rates by 0.50%, which was the largest rate increase in 20 years. The Fed continues to show a hawkish stance. The rate-hike cycle will remain aggressive, with Fed Chair Powell signalling at yesterday’s meeting that the Fed will deliver further 0.50% hikes at the June and July meetings. Yet the markets chose to focus on Powell’s statement that a 0.75% hike was not being “actively considered”. Although Powell didn’t rule out such a move, the markets were nonetheless elated, sending equities up and the US dollar broadly lower. It didn’t take long for the US dollar to recover, particularly against the New Zealand and Australian dollars. Perhaps as significant as the Fed’s rate hike was its announcement to implement quantitative tightening, after years of quantitative easing as part of its accommodative policy. Starting in June, the Fed will sell USD 45 billion/mth in assets, which will climb to USD 95 billion/mth in September. The Fed is betting that it can curb inflation through rate hikes and a balance sheet reduction, while ensuring a soft landing for the economy and avoiding a recession. The New Zealand labour market remains robust, as confirmed by the Q1 employment report. The unemployment rate remained at a record low of 3.2%, matching expectations. Significantly, wage growth, which climbed to 3.1% YoY, its highest level since 2008. The surge in wage growth is sure to raise pressure on the central bank to deliver another 0.50% rate hike at the May 25th meeting, which would bring the Official Cash Rate to 2.0%.     NZD/USD Technical 0.6391 is under strong pressure in support, as NZD/USD is sharply lower. Below, there is support at 0.6325 There is resistance at 0.6519 and 0.6648       This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Week Ahead: India (Indian rupee - INR), Australia (Australian dollar - AUD)

Week Ahead: India (Indian rupee - INR), Australia (Australian dollar - AUD)

Ed Moya Ed Moya 09.05.2022 07:01
A close eye will also stay on energy markets which has shown traders remain convinced that the market will remain tight given OPEC+ will stick to their gradual output increase strategy and as US production struggles to ramp up despite rising rig counts.  Energy traders will continue to watch for developments with the EU nearing a Russian energy ban.     India The Reserve Bank of India sprung a surprise rate hike on markets this past week, sending the Sensex lower whilst providing some support to the INR temporarily. India’s CPI inflation release on Thursday will be this week’s key risk event. If the data comes in above expectations at 7.30%, expectations will rise of a faster more aggressive hiking cycle from the RBI which was quite hawkish in its guidance after the hike. THat will send Indian equities sharply lower once again, while possibly mollifying the impact on the INR from a rampant US Dollar.   Australia Australia could be a correlation trade for the tier-1 PMI releases from China over the weekend. Poor China data could see the AUD and local equities pressured with most of Asia, ex-Japan closed.SImilarly, a decent showing by the China PMIs will have a positive impact. Markets, especially currency markets, could face liquidity issues and see sharp moves if the weekend news wire is heavy as Australia and Japan will be the only two major centres open. Most attention will be focused on Tuesday’s RBA rate decision. A 0.15% hike is fully priced by markets and the clouds from Ukraine and China are weighing heavily on AUD/USD anyway. If the RBA does not hike AUD/USD could fall sharply in the short-term. If the RBA hikes and adjusts its guidance to a more hawkish, AUD/USD could potentially see a big move higher.
Broad markets rally for 2nd week. Curb your enthusiasm or consider crouching into champion commodities and FX? | Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank | FXO Market Update - AUDUSD makes new lows and vols are bid

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 10.05.2022 19:27
Summary:  Risk continue to trade fairly poor while FX getting some relief from the USD bid. EURUSD and USDJPY been relative stable over the last session while AUDUSD is down from 0.7075 on the opening yesterday to 0.6920 lows today. Vols continue to trade bid and AUD vols are considerably higher after the last days move, 1 month AUDUSD up 2 vol from Friday to 15.25. Saxo Bank publishes two weekly FX Options Market Update reports covering changes and updates on the FX Options and FX Volatility market. They describe changes in FX volatility levels, risk premium and ideas how to trade based on these.FX volatility, source Saxo Bank. Vol column: At-the-money volatility for the given maturity. 1w column: Change of the at-the-money volatility for the given maturity over the last week. Source: Bloomberg, Blue: AUDUSD spot, Black: AUDUSD 1 month vol, Red: AUDUSD 1 month risk premium Risk continue to trade poor with equities another leg lower yesterday. FX trades relative stable with EURUSD holding above 1.0500 and USDJPY trading around 130.00 for the last week. Implied vol trades bid while realized vol starts to come lower in some pairs. AUDUSD traded down to 0.6920 today before data came out and showing strength of retail volumes. AUDUSD vols are turbo bid after spot has dropped from 0.7075 on the opening yesterday to 0.6920 lows today. 1 month is up from 13.25 on Friday to 15.25 now, trading as high as 15.70 earlier in Asia with spot on the lows. 1 month risk reversal has moved from 1.8 to 2.8 for puts in the same time and the risk premium has widen over the last days and currently trades at 2.3 vol. Next big data point is USD CPI tomorrow and consensus is for a move lower to 8.1 from the peak at the last reading at 8.5. If this happens we might get a relief rally in risk and USD to trade lower as we get a first indication of a turn around. The elevated vol and risk reversal makes it attractive to sell AUDUSD puts as a trade for a low CPI reading tomorrow. Sell 1 week 0.6900 AUDUSD putReceive 36 pips Alternative Sell 1 month 0.6700 AUDUSD putReceive 40 pips Spot ref.: 0.6960 Source: Saxo Bank The Top/Bottom charts shows the top 5 and bottom 5 values/changes for at-the-money vol, risk reversal (RR) and risk premium of the 45 currency pairs we are tracking. Risk premium: Implied (Imp) minus realized volatility. A positive risk premium means implied volatility trades above realized volatility, i.e. the implied volatility can be seen as “rich”. Change: The difference between current price/volatility and where it closed 1w ago. FX Options Trading: You should be aware that in purchasing Foreign Exchange Options, your potential loss will be the amount of the premium paid for the option, plus any fees or transaction charges that are applicable, should the option not achieve its strike price on the expiry date If you write an option, the risk involved is considerably higher than buying an option. You may be liable for margin to maintain your position and a loss may be sustained well in excess of the premium received. By writing an option, you accept a legal obligation to purchase or sell the underlying asset if the option is exercised against you; however far the market price has moved away from the strike. If you already own the underlying asset that you have contracted to sell, your risk will be limited. If you do not own the underlying asset the risk can be unlimited. Only experienced persons should contemplate writing uncovered options, then only after securing full detail of the applicable conditions and potential risk exposure. Learn more about FX Options: Forex Options – An introduction Forex Options – Exotic options Forex Options - Webinars
Riksbank set to hike 50bp in a bid to get ahead of the ECB

Australia: unemployment rate falls to record low | ING Economics

ING Economics ING Economics 19.05.2022 09:03
Labour market indicators suggest that 25bp rate hikes may not be enough to bring inflation swiftly back within the RBA's target range Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe Source: Shutterstock 3.9% Unemployment rate Record low As expected Unemployment rate falls to record low Today's April labour market data showed a smaller than expected gain in total employment of only 4000. But as this was the net result of what looks like a huge transformation of part-time jobs to full-time jobs, the impact on consumer demand will be far more than this headline employment figure suggests. Full-time employment rose by 92,400, just exceeding the 88,400 decline in part-time jobs. But in addition to longer hours, full-time jobs tend to be better paid, and also offer more perks and job security, all of which are likely to encourage greater spending.  Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM Perhaps even more importantly, the unemployment rate fell to 3.9% from 4.0%. This is a new record low, and suggests that the labour market is very, very tight. Wages, inflation and the unemployment rate Source: CEIC, ING Labour data more of a marginal consideration now Before the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) responded to the recent surge in inflation with a 25bp increase in the cash rate target, labour market data was scrutinized for signs that the central bank's dovish resolve would be challenged. Now that rates have already been raised, that is no longer the case. But labour market data is not irrelevant. Today's drop in the unemployment rate to a new record low, even alongside the relatively more subdued 1Q wage data released yesterday, raises questions about the pace of future hikes.  The question worth pondering is this: "Does it make sense to raise rates in 25bp increments when the inflation rate is so far above target, and so far above the level of policy rates? Or does it make more sense to front-run the early tightening?" Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM A number of other central banks in the Asia Pacific region are having the same internal conversation right now, having emerged from a similar period of dovishness assuming that most of the inflation spike would be transitory, or largely bypass their economies for various reasons. The consensus of these other central banks seems to be swinging behind a more rapid pace of withdrawal of accommodation, at least for a while. Rate hikes from the RBA in excess of 25bp in the near future can't be ruled out either.   Read this article on THINK TagsRBA rate policy Australian wages Australian unemployment rate Australian inflation AUDUSD Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Ebury Weekly Analysis: AUD, CAD, CNY | Ebury

Ebury Weekly Analysis: Australian Dollar (AUD), Canadian Dollar (CAD), Chinese Yuan (CNY) | Ebury

Matthew Ryan Matthew Ryan 23.05.2022 15:20
AUD A broadly weaker US dollar, the easing of restrictions in China and expectations of a more rapid pace of tightening by the RBA boosted the Australian currency last week. The Australian dollar was one of the best performing currencies in the G10, briefly rallying through the 0.71 level against the US dollar this morning. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s May meeting minutes showed that the board is prepared to raise rates by larger increments at upcoming meetings in order to tame inflation. The minutes also showed that inflation is expected to increase further in the near-term, which has raised expectations in favour of more aggressive tightening. The latest economic data supports these expectations, with Australia’s unemployment rate falling to 3.9% in April, the lowest since August 1974. The most important event for AUD this week will likely be the release of the May preliminary PMIs on Tuesday, which are expected to remain in expansionary territory. On Friday, April retail sales will be published. Learn more on Ebury CAD The Canadian dollar ended the week modestly higher against the US dollar as Canadian inflation reached a three-decade high, although the currency underperformed most of its G10 peers. Canada’s April inflation surprised to the upside, reaching a 31-year high of 6.8%. The rise in commodity prices, mainly due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, continues to pressure inflation higher. But this is not the only reason and it seems that price pressure is spreading to more components, as core inflation rose to a record high of 5.8%. This data reinforced expectations of another 50 basis point hike at the Bank of Canada’s June meeting, which has continued to provide a bit of support for the Canadian dollar. On Thursday, March retail sales will be published. Aside from that, CAD is likely to be driven by events elsewhere. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM CNY Last week was a turning point for the yuan, with the USD/CNY pair returning to early-May levels amid a weaker US dollar and improving headlines out of China. News on the Covid front has taken a turn for the better. Shanghai has begun lifting some of its restrictions, with the city set to exit lockdown at the start of next month. Beijing has also continued to resist calls for a lockdown, despite another increase in virus caseloads. Last week’s 15 basis point cut to the PBoC’s 5-year loan prime rate, a reference rate for mortgages, has also raised hopes of an economic revival. The scale of the rate adjustment was larger than expected, and suggests China is serious in its efforts to support the struggling housing sector. Sentiment toward China received an additional boost from President Biden’s suggestions that the US may lift some of the Trump-era tariffs. The noises in that regard have been getting louder in the past few weeks, but the decision itself is not an easy one considering the geopolitical landscape in Asia and doubts about benefits to Americans from such a change. This week we’ll focus primarily on news from China’s Covid front as well as any headlines from president Biden’s trip to Asia, a first since he took office. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM To stay up to date with our publications, please choose one of the below: 📩 Click here to receive the latest market updates👉 Our LinkedIn page for the latest newsâœÂï¸Â Our Blog page for other FX market reports 🔊 Stay up to date with our podcast FXTalk
Ebury Weekly Analysis: AUD, CAD, CNY | Ebury

FX Update: Rates trump risk sentiment as USD driver. | Saxo Bank

John Hardy John Hardy 23.05.2022 14:17
Summary:  The US dollar found only very modest support on Friday as US equity markets plumbed new cycle depths. As risk sentiment rebounded Friday and carried through higher to start the week today, the USD selling has become more aggressive. The fact that risk sentiment has only rebounded since Friday while the US dollar has been selling off for nearly two weeks suggests that US treasury yields, which peaked slightly ahead of the USD, may be the dominant market driver. FX Trading focus: Rates trump risk sentiment as USD driver. As noted on Friday, the near-term focus for FX traders is where and when the USD finds support, if it is going to find support. I suspect that the USD will only properly roll over for the cycle once the Fed has turned back toward easing – at least in a relatively sense, and perhaps this only becomes clear as a reduction in the perceived end-point of this rate hike cycle. In that sense, the market seems in a rush to declare that we have reached that point and that inflation is set to fade from here. Breakeven inflation rates peaked back In late March and have really swooned since the beginning of May. Yields at the short end of the US yield curve remain elevated, but are below the peak reached just before Fed Chair Powell took jumbo hikes of greater than fifty basis points off the table at the May 4 FOMC meeting. The longer end of the US yield curve has consolidated even more and I suspect the combination of the easing back of US yields and inflation expectations, combined with hefty long-USD speculative positioning, that have the USD on its back foot. I have a hard time that peak Fed rate expectations are in the rear view mirror a week before actual quantitative tightening has even begun, but let’s see From here, there is still some room for the USD to fall further without reversing the well-established bull trend, but the comfortable (for USD bulls) portion of that room has been about reduced by half in today’s trade. The yield-fixated USDJPY is in its own category (given BoJ yield-cap policy and the enormity of the move since the pair broke above the 116.35 range top back in March) . For other major USD pairs, the next major area for EURUSD is into 1.0800+, for USDCHF is 0.09525, for USDCAD last gasp support is into 1.2660-1.2715, AUDUSD is discussed below. GBPUSD has a little resistance at the 1.2638 pivot high, but has a lot more wood to chop to suggest a trend reversal, as this downtrend started on the break below 1.3000. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM Chart: AUDUSD The AUDUSD has carried through higher after bobbing back above the pivotal 0.7000 level, one that has served as both support and resistance on many occasions since early 2019. Supporting the AUD are the structural shift in the country’s external imbalances for the better, the recent rebound in risk sentiment, a solid recovery in some industrial metal prices associated with Australia’s traditional export mix, and hopes that China is set to stimulate. Working against the Aussie’s favor are a new left turn from the Australian government at the margin, rising concerns that the global economy is set to slow, and the risk that we are far from the end of the asset market deleveraging cycle. From here, bears, for an ideal fresh trading hook, need a quick rejection of today’s action and for the price action to dip back below 0.7000. On the flipside, if this rally persists into 0.7250+ area (most recent major pivot high in that area and just ahead of the 200-day moving average) the latest down-wave would have been rejected and this would suggest the softening up of the bearish risk has been neutralized for now – the next figure (100 pips) in either direction looks very important here for the pair. Source: Saxo Group ECB President Lagarde was out jawboning today on rate outlook, with her comments largely rhyming with market expectations, therefore triggering a modest pick-up from intraday lows in forward ECB expectations, but a rather more pronounced reaction in the euro itself, especially as EURUSD cleared the local pivot high of 1.0642. She basically spelled out that the ECB will hike in July due to the winding down of asset purchases and in saying that a negative interest rate policy will be over by late Q3, suggests that another hike will come at the September meeting. As background concerns continue to plague the Chinese economic outlook and a rise in Beijing Covid case counts has driven new fears of widening lock downs there, China has been out today touting new measures to encourage activity resumption elsewhere and other easing measures in the works, including SME loans and a tax cut on car purchases. Sentiment in general has also gotten a boost from increasing chatter that US President Biden could be set to roll back some of the China tariffs in the all-out effort to get inflation readings down ahead of the US mid-term election in November. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.For the trend window the FX Board operates with, the USD bull-trend has effectively been erased. As emphasized above, some USD charts still have more room to allow the USD to consolidated lower, but clearly USD bulls are down if not yet out. Otherwise, it is clear we are in flux when no trend reading has an absolute valuer greater than 2 save for NOK. By the way, Poland’s prime minister has been the first politician (that I have noticed) to call for Norway to share its windfall gains from high energy prices. Interesting to watch the political optics on this issue – certainly a forward risk for NOK. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.EURUSD is trying to cross into a positive trend reading today, but note that the chart context is important for trend status and the downtrend is so entrenched that it is too early to bite on this move. Likewise for USDCHF, although the USDCAD chart looks more credibly bearish on a weak close today. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1230 – US Apr. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 1415 – ECB's Holzmann, Nagel to speak 1415 – UK Bank of England Governor Bailey to speak 1430 – ECB's Villeroy to speak at Davos 2245 – New Zealand Q1 Retail Sales  2330 – US Fed’s George (voter) to speak Source: Saxo Bank
Euro To British Pound (EUR/GBP) Keeps High Levels! USD/CHF And AUD/USD Have Been Consequently Rising. Swiss Franc And Australian Have Strengthened | Orbex

Euro To British Pound (EUR/GBP) Keeps High Levels! USD/CHF And AUD/USD Have Been Consequently Rising. Swiss Franc And Australian Have Strengthened | Orbex

Jing Ren Jing Ren 25.05.2022 09:13
USDCHF struggles for bids The Swiss franc rallied further after the SNB said it would tighten if inflation persisted. The pair has given up more than half of its gains from the past month. A fall below 0.9710 which sits on the 30-day moving average has put the bulls on the defensive. The discount and the RSI’s repeatedly oversold condition may attract some bargain hunters, but buyers need to clear the support-turn-resistance at 0.9710 before a rebound could take shape. On the downside, a break below 0.9570 would deepen the correction to 0.9500. AUDUSD tests resistance The Australian dollar continues to recover as commodities bounce higher. The rebound gained traction after it broke above the first resistance at 0.7050. A combination of short-covering and fresh buying has sent the aussie to the key supply zone near 0.7160. A bullish close would send the pair 100-pip higher to the last hurdle at 0.7260, the bears’ stronghold on the daily chart. Strong selling pressure could be expected due to bearish inertia. The psychological level of 0.7000 is the first support. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM EURGBP attempts bullish reversal The euro continues higher fuelled by the ECB’s latest hawkish hint. Sentiment stayed bullish after the pair found support over 0.8400. A pop above 0.8530 suggests that sellers scrambled to cover their positions. The RSI’s overbought situation may temper the upward drive momentarily. As the dust settles, the bulls may look to accumulate above 0.8500 ahead of their final breakout attempt. A close above 0.8620 could trigger an extended rally above 0.8720, setting the tone for a bullish reversal in the medium-term. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Gold and stocks in the spotlight for investors

(USD) US Dollar’s Orderly Retreat Continues | Having A Look At EUR/USD, GBP/USD And AUD/USD | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 25.05.2022 14:09
Recession jitters send US dollar lower The US dollar eased once again overnight, as US recession fears continue to lead to a repricing lower of Fed tightening expectations. With quantitative tightening starting next week and no signs of inflation falling, that may be more hope than reality. Nevertheless, one must respect the momentum in the short term, and the US dollar bull market correction still looks to have legs in it. ​ The dollar index fell by 0.32% to 101.77 overnight, but Asia is doing its usual countertrend moves today, pushing the dollar index back up to 101.95. The multi-year breakout line is at 102.40 today, forming initial resistance, while 101.50 and 101.00 loom as immediate supports. EUR/USD continued edging higher overnight, rising 0.42% to 1.0735 before falling by 0.28% to 1.0705 in Asia. Momentum already appears to be waning for EUR/USD, but I do not rule out at least a test of 1.0750 and 1.0825, the multi-decade breakout line. A weekly close above the latter is needed to suggest a medium-term low is in place. GBP/USD fell overnight, crushed by EUR/GBP buying, poor data and tax and political risk. It finished 0.42% lower at 1.2535 where it remains in Asia today. Sterling faces political risks, outlined above, today, and these will limit gains. It now has support at 1.2470, with a double top now at 1.2600. Even if the US dollar sell-off continues, sterling will remain euro’s poor cousin. AUD/USD remains steady at 0.7100 today, having probed the downside overnight Lower US yields saw USD/JPY fall 0.85% to 126.85 overnight where it remains in Asia, just below support, now resistance, at 127.00. A deeper selloff, potentially targeting the 125.00 support area, remains entirely possible given the market is still clearly very long USD/JPY. Once again, at those levels though, given the trajectory of US and Japan interest rates, being short becomes a dangerous game. AUD/USD remains steady at 0.7100 today, having probed the downside overnight. AUD/NZD buying is capping gains for now. A hawkish RBNZ today has sent the Kiwi dollar flying, NZD/USD jumping 0.65% to 0.6500. The rally is already showing signs of fatigue and a weekly close above 0.6550 is required to signal a potential medium-term low. Support is distant at 0.6420. Asian FX continued gaining against the US dollar overnight, but a stronger greenback in Asian time has erased those gains. A neutral USD/CNY fixing by the PBOC has given Asian markets little to go on today, with USD/CNY, USD/CNH and USD/THB rising by around 0.30%, while USD/KRW has risen by 0.10%. An impending Bank of Korea hike on Friday should limit the won’s weakness. The Malaysian ringgit looks like the most vulnerable regional currency right now, USD/MYR trading near 4.4000 today. With policy tightening gaining momentum among other Asian central banks, today’s benign inflation data reinforced that outlook. USD/MYR could potentially test 4.4500 by early next week. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Video: A Wide Range Of Forex Pairs AUD/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD And GBP/USD Analysed By Jason Sen (DayTradeIdeas)

Video: A Wide Range Of Forex Pairs AUD/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD And GBP/USD Analysed By Jason Sen (DayTradeIdeas)

Jason Sen Jason Sen 30.05.2022 07:45
AUDUSD finally tests very strong resistance at 7135/55. Shorts need stops above 7175. A break higher this week is a buy signal targeting 7230/50. Shorts need stops above 7275. Shorts at 7135/55 target 7090 then 7060/50. Further losses test support at 7020/10. Longs need stops below 7000. USDJPY shorts at resistance is at 127.50/70 need stops above 127.80. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 128.20/30, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 128.70/90. Holding resistance is at 127.50/70 targets 127.20/00. A break below 126.80 targets 126.30/20 & eventually 125.80. EURJPY holding strong resistance at 136.50/70 (perfectly on Thursday & Friday) targets 135.60/50 for profit taking on shorts. Further losses target 135.35/25. If we continue lower look for 134.65/55 then strong support at 134.20/00 for profit taking on any shorts. We should have strong resistance again at 136.50/70. Shorts need stops above 136.95. A break higher targets 137.20/30 then 138.00/20. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM EURUSD longs at support at 1.0670/50 start to work on the bounce towards strong resistance at 1.0800/20 for profit taking. Shorts need stops above 1.0835. Support again at 1.0670/55. Longs need stops below 1.0640. Strong support at 1.0600/1.0590. GBPUSD made a high for the day 6 pips above strong resistance at 1.2640/60. Shorts need stops above 1.2680. A break higher this week is a buy signal initially targeting 1.2725/45. Shorts at 1.2640/60 target 1.2590, perhaps as far as 1.2555/45 for profit taking. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Fed And US Dollar (USD) Are All About Mixed Feelings, Christine Lagarde And ECB In General May Support Euro Even In July. BoE's Bailey Also Teases A Rate Hike. XAU, XAG And Crude Oil Went Higher As USD Weakened | OneRoyal

Fed And US Dollar (USD) Are All About Mixed Feelings, Christine Lagarde And ECB In General May Support Euro Even In July. BoE's Bailey Also Teases A Rate Hike. XAU, XAG And Crude Oil Went Higher As USD Weakened | OneRoyal

OneRoyal Market Updates OneRoyal Market Updates 30.05.2022 10:14
Weekly Recap It was another bearish week for the US Dollar as the greenback continued to sell off from YTD highs. The FOMC meeting minutes, released mid-week, did little to inspire a fresh rally in the Dollar. While the minutes confirmed the Fed’s hawkish stance and reinforced expectations for further 50bps hikes in June and July, there was little in the way of exciting details to get bulls reinvigorated. Additionally, with the Fed having seemingly turned more hawkish since that meeting, the minutes felt a little outdated. Christine Lagarde, ECB And Rate Hikes On the data front, a string of weaker-than-expected indicators out of the eurozone heightened growth concerns. With ECB’s Lagarde essentially confirming a July rate-hike, recession fears weighed on European asset markets though EUR itself remained well bid. Elsewhere, equities markets generally saw a choppy week though most indices ended the week in the green, benefitting from the weaker US Dollar. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM BOE’s Bailey warned that further rate hikes will likely be necessary in the face of rising inflation. The new fiscal package announced by the UK government this week, aimed at helping households fight rising energy bills, has further increased the likelihood of BOE rate hikes in the near-term. Weaker Dollar, Stronger Crude, Gold And Silver Commodities prices were higher over the week also. Gold, silver and oil all rallied on the back of a weaker US Dollar. With monetary policy divergence between the Fed and other central banks drying up, USD pressure has helped commodities stay afloat recently. Coming Up This Week Australian GDP Australian GDP will be closely watched this week on the back of the recent RBA rate hike. With the bank lifting rates and sounding firmly hawkish in its outlook and assessment, this week’s data might further support growing RBA rate hike expectations. With the country having emerged from one of the longest lockdowns of the pandemic, the economy has been on the bounce-back. However, as we have seen elsewhere, the economy has still been rocked by rising inflation and supply constraints. Traders will be keen to see the extent to which these factors weighed on the economy over the last quarter. BOC Rate Decision The BOC is widely expected to raise rates when it convenes for this month’s meeting mid-week. All 30 economists polled by Reuters ahead of the event are looking for a .5% hike. With this in mind, the focus will be on the bank’s forward guidance. If the BOC gives a clear signal that further hikes are coming in the near future, this should drive CAD higher near-term. However, if there is any indication that the BOC might look to hold off on any further rate hikes near-term, this will likely see cad dragged lower. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM US Non-Farm Payrolls The latest set of US labour market indicators this week will be closely watched as we head to the June meeting. Recent Fed commentary has been decidedly hawkish and it would likely take a major downside shock to change this narrative. Even then, it certainly wouldn’t impact the June rate hike and would likely only factor in forward guidance issued by the Fed. Still, with slowdown fears building, any weakness would no doubt act as a headwind to risk sentiment in the short-term. Forex Heat Map Technical Analysis Our favourite chart this week is the Dollar Index (DXY) The DYX has pulled back from recent multi-year highs and is now sitting on a make-or-break level at 101.94. This level was the 2020 closing high price. While the level holds as support, DXY is likely to recover and continue the longer-term bull trend. Below here, however, there is room for the correction to develop further towards next support at 100.37 Economic Calendar Plenty of key data releases to keep an eye on this week including Australian GDP, BOC rate decision and US Non-Farm Payrolls to name a few. Please see full calendar below for the complete schedule . Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Crude Oil Is Said To Shape Euro To US Dollar (EUR/USD). Forex Cable (GBP/USD) May Be Supported By BoE Sooner Than Later. (USD/JPY) - Can Japanese Yen Rise? | Oanda

Crude Oil Is Said To Shape Euro To US Dollar (EUR/USD). Forex Cable (GBP/USD) May Be Supported By BoE Sooner Than Later. (USD/JPY) - Can Japanese Yen Rise? | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 30.05.2022 13:22
Still improving risk sentiment sends US dollar lower The US dollar declined once again on Friday as improving risk sentiment continues to unwind the 2022 US dollar rally. That has spilt over into Asian markets today, with regional currencies booking some decent gains versus the greenback this morning. On Friday, the dollar index edged 0.12% lower to 101.64, losing another 0.13% to 101.50 in Asia. Support remains at 101.00, with resistance at 102.50. EUR/USD EUR/USD held steady on Friday, closing almost unchanged at 1.0735, with US dollar weakness being reflected in EMFX and the commonwealth currencies. It has gained 0.20% to 1.0755 in Asia, but overall, seems locked in a 1.0700 to 1.0800 range. Oil’s rally may temper single currency gains, with the multi-decade breakout line, today at 1.0830, still a formidable barrier. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM GBP/USD GBP/USD closed 0.20% higher at 1.2630 on Friday, adding another 0.14% to 1.2640 in Asia. GBP/USD looks set to trade in a noisy 1.2600 to 1.2700 range as the week gets underway. The government’s cost of living package may prompt faster BOE tightening, supporting the downside, while the economic slowdown continues to slow upside progress. USD/JPY USD/JPY is trading sideways, ranging each side of 127.00 as US yields trade in narrow ranges. That is likely to continue with US bond markets closed today. The chart suggests USD/JPY has further downside potential that could target 125.00. Only a move through trendline resistance at 127.80 changes the picture. AUD/USD & NZD/USD AUD/USD and NZD/USD continue to be driven entirely by swings in global risk sentiment. Another strong performance by Wall Street on Friday maintained that upward momentum and both AUD and NZD were prime beneficiaries. AUD/USD rallied by 0.85% to 0.7160, adding another 0.20% to 0.7175 today. It has resistance at 0.7260, and support at 0.7100. NZD/USD rose by 0.86% to 0.6536 on Friday, rising another 0.17% to 0.6547 today. Resistance nearby at 0.6570 opens a larger rally to 0.6650, with support at 0.6475. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM Asian FX rode improving investor risk sentiment higher on Friday, moves reflected throughout the EM space. Gains were led by the Chinese yuan, Korean won, and New Taiwan dollar, all gaining around 0.70%, while even the beleaguered Malaysian ringgit out in a good show, USD/MYR falling to 4.3770. Both the Indonesian rupiah and the Malaysian ringgit should find further strength on higher oil prices, even though it increases their domestic subsidy bills. Oil’s strength is likely the reason the Indian rupee has remained unchanged from Friday through today. CNY, KRW and NTD are rallying strongly today, likely boosted by China’s reopening hopes. USD/CNY, USD/KRW, and USD/NTD have fallen by around 0.80% today. However, if oil prices continue to rise this week, the rally in energy-importing Asian currencies may run out of steam. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
It's Time For Markets To Discount EU Ban On Russian Oil! EUR/USD And AUD/USD Have Gone Up. How Will Euro Exchange Rate Change In The Following Days? Let's Watch Eurozone Inflation! | ING Economics

It's Time For Markets To Discount EU Ban On Russian Oil! EUR/USD And AUD/USD Have Gone Up. How Will Euro Exchange Rate Change In The Following Days? Let's Watch Eurozone Inflation! | ING Economics

ING Economics ING Economics 31.05.2022 08:01
EU partial ban on oil and hawkish commentary from Fed's Waller were the headlines with the US out on holiday. Indian GDP for 1Q22 out later.  Source: shutterstock Macro outlook Global: With the US out on vacation yesterday, there isn’t too much overnight catch-up to do for Asia, though commodity markets are responding to the partial EU ban on Russian oil agreed upon yesterday. FX markets continued their recent gains against the USD though. EURUSD  has now risen to 1.0787, bringing it close to resistance levels just above 1.08. The AUD also continued to make gains, and is currently flirting with 0.72. Within the Asia FX pack, the KRW led the charge, shooting lower to 1238, with the CNY close behind in terms of gains at 6.66. Despite the holidays, the Fed’s Waller struck a more hawkish tone at a speaking engagement than his colleague, Raphael  Bostic, who had recently advocated a possible September pause in hikes. Waller, in contrast, suggested that 50bp hikes should remain on the table until inflation was closer to 2%. Newswires continue to run with stories looking for the trough in the equity sell-off, but also suggesting that the bond sell off is also over. One of those views is likely to be wrong. But whichever is the case, it is a good reflection of the current market sentiment which is looking for turning points. More choppiness ahead seems likely as a result. It is a relatively light day for G-7 macro data today. The EU’s May inflation should show a rise from 7.5% to 7.8%. But ECB rate hike intentions have been clearly flagged for now, so this shouldn’t make too many ripples. And in the US, we have house price figures and consumer confidence numbers. Consumer confidence has barely any correlation with consumer spending, so we can probably give it only a cursory examination. House prices appear to be reaching a peak in year on year growth, but until or unless they show a marked reversal in direction, can probably also be glossed over. India: 1Q22 GDP, which is released at 8pm SGT tonight, should come in at about 4.0%YoY (consensus is 3.9%YoY). That should bring the annual fiscal-year GDP growth for 2021/22 to 8.7%. For the 2022/23 fiscal year, we are forecasting 7.2% GDP growth. Rising prices and tighter monetary policy as well as global disruptions and a less helpful base comparison account for the apparent slowdown.  China: Official PMIs will be released this morning. We expect both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs will come in under 50, i.e. signalling monthly contraction. That result will mainly reflect the fact that Beijing was in lockdown for most of May, adding extra pressure on activity while Shanghai was also still in lockdown. Unemployment should remain high and will add uncertainty to the non-manufacturing PMI even if Shanghai residents resume work and production starting from 1st June.   Korea:  April monthly activity data signals that China’s lockdown dragged down Korean manufacturing production while local reopening supported services, construction, and consumption activity. Manufacturing production plunged -3.3%MoM (vs -1.3% market consensus), the first monthly drop in seven months. Meanwhile, the construction and services sectors rose modestly for the second straight month, with notable rises in hotels & restaurants and personal services (11.5% and 8.7%) respectively. Consumption fell -0.2% but mainly due to a decline in pharmaceutical consumption, while durable goods, including automobiles, rose slightly. Overall, the April data was on weak side, yet the recent approval of a supplementary budget (62 trillion KRW) and the reopening of China should boost the recovery in the coming months.  Japan: April Industrial production fell -1.3% MoM sa (vs -0.2% market consensus) the first fall in three months, with China’s lockdown hampering supply chains and production activity. However, consumer sales were relatively sound with retail sales and department store sales up by 2.9% YoY and 4.0% respectively. Meanwhile, labour conditions also improved. The jobless rate in April dropped to 2.5% (vs 2.6% market consensus and March) and the job-to-application ratio ticked up to 1.23 (vs 1.22 in March). We ought to be on the watch for tighter labour market conditions leading to wage growth, which is the key that the Bank of Japan has been looking for to gauge a sustainable inflation trend. What to look out for: EU inflation and US non-farm payrolls South Korea industrial production (31 May) Japan retail sales and job-applicant ratio (31 May) China PMI manufacturing (31 May) Thailand trade balance (31 May) Eurozone CPI inflation (31 May  US Conference board expectations (31 May) South Korea trade (1 June) Regional PMI manufacturing (1 June) Australia 1Q GDP (1 June) US ISM manufacturing (1 June) Indonesia CPI inflation (2 June) Australia trade balance (2 June) US ADP jobs, initial jobless claims, durable goods orders (2 June) South Korea CPI inflation (3 June) US non-farm payrolls and ISM services (3 June) Read this article on THINK TagsEmerging Markets Asia Pacific Asia Markets Asia Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Will Fuel Prices Shock Again? Crude Oil Price Almost Hit $120! Will EV Become More Popular Shortly?

Is It A Turning Point For Australian Dollar To US Dollar (AUD/USD)!? Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Decreased! | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 01.06.2022 15:27
The Australian dollar is in calm waters this week, as AUD/USD trades quietly just below the 0.73 level. GDP slows to 0.8% Australia’s Q1 GDP slowed to 0.8% QoQ, after a massive 3.6% QoQ gain in Q4 of 2021. Investors were braced for a softer release after the impressive Q4 surge, and the Q1 reading actually outperformed, beating the estimate of 0.5%. This has resulted in a muted response to GDP, with the Aussie edging slightly higher. The whipsaw movement in GDP makes it difficult to predict the underlying strength of the economy. As far as the RBA is concerned, the respectable growth in Q1, which translates into 3.2% annualized growth, doesn’t interfere with its rate-tightening plans. Monetary policy has not focused all that much on GDP, with the RBA concentrating on the labour market, wage growth and inflation. The RBA holds its meeting next week, and is likely to tighten by another 25-bps, which would bring the cash rate to a (still low) 0.60%. Australia’s current account contracted to AUD 7.5 billion in the first quarter, down sharply from AUD 13.2 billion in Q4 of 2021. The decline was a strong increase in imports, which outstripped exports. This is consistent with strong retail sales, as consumers continue to spend in the follow-up to the removal of Covid restrictions. In the US, the Fed commenced quantitative tightening this week and the Fed continues to send out hawkish messages. Fed Governor Christopher Waller urged the Fed to continue its rate hikes and said that he supported raising rates above the “neutral level”, which is not supportive or restrictive for growth. The Fed estimates the neutral level around 2.5%, which leaves plenty of room for further hikes. Fed Chair Powell has signalled that the Fed will deliver 50-bps hikes in June and July, followed by a pause in September. AUD/USD Technical 0.7207 is under pressure in resistance. Above, there is resistance at 0.7252 There is support at 0.7121 and 0.7076 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Choppy trading continues

USD - Waiting For NFP! Check How Are EUR/USD & AUD/USD Doing Ahead Of The US Data Release!| Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 03.06.2022 12:25
US dollar eyes nonfarm payrolls There was a wax on, wax off feel to currency markets overnight. Soft ADP Employment data spurring a risk-on rally across asset classes as the Fed hiking outlook was tempered. The US dollar staged a broad retreat, unwinding all its gains from the day before in the major space except for USD/JPY. Asian market volatility is being dampened by holidays across the region today, including mainland China and Hong Kong, and the UK later today.  US dollar loses all of its previous gains - MarketPulseMarketPulse The dollar index tumbled by 0.78% to 101.75 overnight, an exact reversal of the rally from the day before. It is unmoved in Asia and support/resistance lies at 101.40 and 102.70. Its fate will be decided by this evening’s US Non-Farm Payrolls.   EUR/USD reversed all its previous day’s losses, rising 0.91% to 1.0750 where it remains in Asia. Resistance between 1.0770 and 1.0830 remains a formidable barrier, with support at 1.0650. Sterling reversed all its previous day’s losses, rising 0.75% to 1.2575 where it remains in Asia. It has support/resistance at 1.2460 and 1.2670. USD/JPY was almost unchanged at 129.85 as US bond yields barely moved. It remains unchanged in Asia. It has support/resistance at 129.00 and 131.30. Their fate will be decided by this evening’s US Non-Farm Payrolls.   AUD/USD staged a bullish outside reversal day overnight, making a new low before closing higher than the high of the day before, thanks to the broad-based risk-on rally after the US data. It leapt 1.27% higher to 0.7260 overnight where it remains today. AUD/USD has support at 0.7150, and the overnight rally took it above its 50/100/200-day moving averages (DMAs) between 0.7230 and 0.7255 as well. A soft Non-Farm print tonight could see AUD/USD rise to test 0.7350, with a weekly close at these levels being a bullish signal technically. Its fate will be decided by this evening’s US Non-Farm Payrolls.   Asian FX currencies booked modest gains overnight, with the rise in oil prices tempering the fast money inflows. Both the Malaysian ringgit and Philippine peso actually fell overnight, a result I suspect, of rising subsidy bills as oil prices climb higher. The Indonesian rupiah has rallied 0.70% to 14,420.00 today, while the KRW and MYR have risen by 0.10%. With a swathe of holidays across the region today, and no PBOC USD/CNY fixing, Asian markets look content to watch from the sidelines as we head into US data this evening and the weekend. Their fate will be decided by this evening’s US Non-Farm Payrolls. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. https://www.marketpulse.com/20220603/us-dollar-loses-all-of-its-previous-gains/
Markets find balance ahead of fresh economic data and speeches from Lagarde and Powell (expect a local increase in EUR/USD and a decease in USD/CAD)  | InstaForex

Shocking Forex Rates!? EUR/USD Decreased A Little Bit, So Does British Pound (GBP) And AUD/USD. USD/JPY (US Dollar To Japanese Yen) Showed Decent Performance | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 06.06.2022 16:23
US dollar pares gains from NFP report Friday’s higher Non-Farm Payroll data saw the US dollar reverse much of its losses from Thursday, characterising a very choppy back-and-forth week last week. The dollar index rose by 0.40% to 1.0217, leaving the index slightly higher for the week. Notably, the rally was not enough to lift the index above its 102.35 pivot point, suggesting that the downside remains the path of least resistance still. Support/resistance lies at 101.30 and 102.70. In Asia, the China reopening trade has pushed the index slightly lower to 102.11.  US dollar eases lower in Asia - MarketPulseMarketPulse EUR/USD fell only slightly by 0.27% to 1.0720 on Friday post-data, where it remains in Asia. ​ Resistance between 1.0770 and 1.0830 remains a formidable barrier, with support at 1.0650. However, the single currency continues to show resilience at these levels, and resistance could be seriously tested if China’s reopening trade continues to support risk sentiment. Volumes will be impacted by European holidays today.   Sterling tumbled by 0.70% to 1.2490 on Friday in yet another whipsaw session. It remains there in Asia today. It has support/resistance at 1.2460 and 1.2670. A UK leadership challenge this week may serve to limit gains but a clean break of 1.2670 opens a potentially larger rally to 1.2800 and 1.3000, while the failure of 1.2460 could see sterling fall to 1.2400.   USD/JPY rose 0.73% to 130.85 on Friday, accounting for most of the dollar index gains post US data as US bond yields firmed slightly. USD/JPY has edged 0.15% lower to 130.65 today despite dovish BOJ comments, but the US/Japan rate differential should continue to support the downside unless US yields suddenly fall sharply. It has support at 129.00 and resistance at 131.00, a double top, and 131.30.   AUD/USD fell post US data as risk sentiment turned south. It finished 0.80% lower at 0.7205, easing another 0.20% to 0.7195 in Asia. AUD/USD has nearby support at 0.7180, an ascending one-month trendline, with resistance between its 50/100/200-day moving averages (DMAs) between 0.7225 and 0.7255. RBA hiking concerns ahead of tomorrow’s RBA meeting look set to limit gains in the short term.   USD/Asia moved higher on Friday on firm US data, with the Korean won, New Taiwan dollar, Singapore dollar, and India rupee the main losers, being favourites by fast-money to express risk sentiment of late. Yuan trading was impacted by a China holiday. Markets are quiet in Asia today, with Asian currencies booking only small gains versus the greenback. The sharp rise in oil prices on Friday, which continues in Asian trading today, is likely limiting Asia FX gains. The double-edged sword of China’s reopening is that oil prices are likely to remain firm as well as demand returns. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
FX Update: USD jolted higher on fitful safe haven bid. JPY risks mount.

AUDUSD: Yes, US Dollar (USD) Is Really Strong And Boosted But What About Its (AUD) Australian Cousin? | InstaForex

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 06.06.2022 15:16
Relevance up to 11:00 2022-06-11 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313016 Divergences in the Fed's monetary policy with other central banks and American exceptionalism, when US GDP growth was faster than that of its main competitors and the global economy as a whole, allowed the USD index to soar to 20-year highs. However, an increase in the federal funds rate slows down the gross domestic product in the States, while in some other countries the opposite process is underway. Divergence in economic growth is no longer playing on the side of the US dollar. It has serious opponents. The decline in employment growth and inflation, disappointing statistics on business activity, and the real estate market are strong evidence of the loss of a pair of US GDP. This is normal in the context of the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy. The question is, will an aggressive rate hike provoke a recession? Australia's economy, by contrast, continues to accelerate. The strongest labor market in the last 48 years, benefits from problems with grain supplies from Ukraine and India, a strong raw materials market in general, and hopes for monetary incentives from China to open the way for further economic growth of the Green Continent. In the first quarter, it accelerated to 3.3% y/y and to 0.8% q/q, which, against the background of the sliding of the American analog into the red zone, became one of the drivers of the AUDUSD rebound from the levels of the May lows by 5.7%. Rapid GDP growth, inflation at 5.1%, which is above the upper limit of the targeted range of 2-3%, and the lowest unemployment in almost half a century allowed the RBA to begin a cycle of tightening monetary policy. Dynamics of the main economic indicators of Australia     Now the markets are worried about how much the cash rate will grow at the meeting on June 7? 15 out of 29 Bloomberg experts predict that by 25 bps, three - by 50 bps, and the remaining 11 - by 40 bps. Financial markets also adhere to the latter opinion. Proponents of gradual monetary restriction nod to household debt, and an increase in the cost of services will lead to a decrease in consumption. The latter accounts for 60% of GDP. "Hawks" talk about the need to rein in inflation as quickly as possible and cite the example of the Fed and other central banks that use big steps. In my opinion, when a significant part of the positive from the increase in the federal funds rate is already embedded in the US dollar quotes, while Bloomberg experts' forecasts for the cash rate growth limit of up to 2% fall short of market expectations of 2.8% by December and up to 3.6% a year later, the AUDUSD pair has not yet revealed its potential. UBS predicts its growth to 0.76 by the end of 2022 and to 0.78 by the end of March 2023, and this makes sense. AUDUSD, the daily chart     Technically, finding AUDUSD above fair value and moving averages indicates the dominance of "bulls". A breakout of resistance at 0.7255, where an important pivot level is located, or a rebound from supports at 0.714 and 0.71 should be used to form long positions.
AUD/USD Eyes 0.6945 on Strong Australia Retail Sales Data

AUD/USD: Maybe Australian Dollar (Like On A Rollercoaster) Has Held Its Breath, But It Surely Wants To Go Up Rising Against US Dollar... | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 06.06.2022 23:43
The Australian dollar went on a wild ride late last week. AUD/USD jumped 1.27% on Thursday, only to cough up most of these gains on Friday.  The Aussie is showing little movement today, as the markets eye the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision on Tuesday. Aussie in calm waters ahead of RBA - MarketPulseMarketPulse RBA poised for back-to-back rate hikes The RBA is widely expected to raise interest rates back-to-back, for the first time since 2013. It’s not clear what the size of the hike will be, with the most likely scenario being a 40-bps increase, which would raise the cash rate to 0.75%. If the RBA opts for a modest 25-bps hike, investors could be disappointed and the Australian dollar could lose ground. The RBA started its rate-hike cycle last month and is expected to raise rates to 3% or even higher, which means that the Bank will be raising rates in the second half of the year and into 2023. The aggressive rate hiking by the RBA will help the Australian dollar keep pace with the US dollar in terms of the US/Australia rate differential. US yields climbed on Friday after the May nonfarm payrolls were stronger than expected. The economy added 390 thousand jobs, above the forecast of 325 thousand and indicating that the labour market remains robust. The report has solidified expectations that the Fed will deliver 50-bps hikes at the June and July meetings. Federal Chair Powell has signalled that the Fed will take a pause from rate hikes in September, but that view is by no means unanimous. On Thursday, Fed Vice Chair Brainard said the Fed should not take a break from rate hikes in September, and that the Fed might continue with 50-bps hikes if inflation doesn’t peak. What makes Brainard’s comments noteworthy is that she is considered a leading dove on the Fed, which is indicative of the hawkish pivot the Fed has taken as inflation continues to accelerate. Echoing Brainard, Fed member Mester said that the Fed had to act aggressively to contain inflation and that could mean an increase at the September meeting. . AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.7207. Above, there is resistance at 0.7252 There is support at 0.7121 and 0.7076 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
AUD/USD Eyes 0.6945 on Strong Australia Retail Sales Data

Australian Dollar (AUD) Aussie stabilizes after nasty tumble. How Is AUD/USD Doing? | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 14.06.2022 12:48
It has been a rough spell for the Australian dollar, which has steadied after a four-day slide. This downswing saw AUD/USD plunge over 300 points and break below the symbolic 70 level. Market nerves weigh on the Australian dollar Ahead of today’s FOMC rate meeting, risk sentiment is nowhere to be found. The US inflation report and expectations that the Fed will remain very aggressive have raised fears of a recession in the US. This has allowed the US dollar to surge, especially against risk-related currencies like the Australian dollar. Back in early April, AUD/USD was trading close to the 0.76 line, but the Aussie has been hammered, with drops of some 400 points in April and May. With US inflation hitting a new 40-year high of 8.6%, some commentators are using the word “panic” to describe the financial markets. There are voices calling on the Fed to deliver a massive 0.75% hike at today’s meeting, though it would be a shock if the Fed did anything other than raise rates by 0.50%. Fed Chair Powell may use his press conference to hint at a 0.75% hike at a later date if inflation doesn’t start to fall soon, and such a message would likely boost the surging US dollar. With no sign of an inflation peak, it’s clear that the Federal Reserve will have to keep its foot pressed to the floor when it comes to upcoming rate hikes. This makes it likely that the Fed will deliver 50-bp hikes in June, July and September. Just a couple of weeks ago the Fed signalled it would take a break in September, but that now seems a luxury it can’t afford, given that inflation continues to accelerate. The Australian dollar didn’t get any relief from Australian releases, as NAB Business Confidence for May slowed for a second straight month, with a reading of 6 points, down from 10 previously. We’ll get a look at Westpac Consumer Confidence for June later today. The May reading came in at -5.6%, and another sharp loss could see the Aussie resume its downward movement. . AUD/USD Technical There is weak support at 0.6902, followed by support at 0.6765 There is resistance at 0.6973 and 0.7110   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Video market update for June 29, 2022  | InstaForex

Fluctuating FX Pair - AUDUSD! How Much Is 1 Australian Dollar!? Trading plan for AUDUSD for June 17, 2022 | InstaForex

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.06.2022 14:19
Relevance up to 12:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Technical outlook: AUDUSD rose through the 0.7070 mark on Thursday before finding resistance. The currency pair is pulling back and is seen to be trading close to the 0.6995 mark at this point of writing. Also note that prices have confirmed a huge Engulfing Bullish candlestick pattern on the daily chart after bouncing from the 0.6850 low early this week. AUDUSD bulls will be poised to hold prices above 0.6850 to remain in control and push at least towards the 0.7450 level going forward. The currency pair seems to be unfolding a corrective rally, which might terminate above 0.7275 before reversing lower again. Immediate price resistance is seen towards the 0.7660 mark and a break is required to confirm a change in the larger degree trend. AUDUSD is working on a meaningful downswing between the 0.7660 and 0.6830 levels for now. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the above drop is seen through the 0.7345 mark as projected on the daily chart. The currency is expected to face formidable resistance as prices attempt to push through that mark going forward. Trading plan: Potential rally through 0.7300-400 against 0.6800 Good luck!   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280625
Video market update for June 29, 2022  | InstaForex

AUD/USD Technical Analysis and Trading Tips for June 21, 2022

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.06.2022 15:38
Relevance up to 13:00 2022-06-24 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   Market participants as a whole reacted rather restrainedly to the decision of the central bank to raise the interest rate and to today's speech of the head of the RBA, and the publication of minutes from the June meeting of the bank.     AUD remains under pressure, primarily against the US dollar. As of this writing, AUD/USD is trading near 0.6945, continuing to decline towards the lower border of the descending channel on the weekly chart, which is currently below 0.6800. Given the Fed's propensity to pursue a tighter monetary policy and in anticipation of further strengthening of the US dollar, a deeper decline in AUD/USD should be expected.     A breakdown of local support levels 0.6850, 0.6800 will confirm our assumption, and AUD/USD will head towards multi-year lows reached in March 2020 near 0.5665, 0.5510 with intermediate targets at support levels 0.6500, 0.6455 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement to the wave of the pair's decline from 0.9500 in July 2014 to 2020 lows near 0.5510), 0.6270, 0.5975.     The continued positive upward trend in 10-year US bond yields makes the dollar an attractive asset for investment, given the prospects for further tightening of the Fed's monetary policy. The dollar is also actively used as a defensive asset, winning over traditional defensive assets such as gold, franc, and yen.     In an alternative scenario, AUD/USD will again try to break through the key resistance levels 0.7240 (200 EMA on the daily chart), 0.7210 (144 EMA on the daily chart), 0.7305 (200 EMA on the weekly chart, 50 EMA on the monthly chart). A breakdown of the resistance levels 0.7600 (200 EMA on the monthly chart), 0.7640 (144 EMA on the monthly chart) will bring AUD/USD into the zone of a long-term bull market. Support levels: 0.6900, 0.6850, 0.6800, 0.6455, 0.6270, 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510 Resistance levels: 0.6970, 0.7000, 0.7037, 0.7070, 0.7120, 0.7210, 0.7240, 0.7265, 0.7305 Trading Tips Sell Stop 0.6915. Stop-Loss 0.7010. Take-Profit 0.6900, 0.6850, 0.6800, 0.6455, 0.6270, 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510 Buy Stop 0.7010. Stop-Loss 0.6915. Take-Profit 0.7037, 0.7070, 0.7120, 0.7210, 0.7240, 0.7265, 0.7305   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/314087