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The extremely volatile last full trading week of October ended on Friday, October 28. Meetings of the three largest world central banks (Canada, the eurozone, Japan) were held. If the decisions taken by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan on interest rates coincided with market expectations, then the Bank of Canada made an unexpected decision, surprising investors. The bank raised its interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%, although markets had expected a 75 bp hike. The decision appears to have been prompted by growing concerns about the threat of a slowdown in the economy and a deepening global recession, and disappointed market participants.

Next week, market participants will focus on two main and key events: the Federal Reserve meeting and the release of the monthly report of the US Department of Labor for October.

In addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England will also hold their meetings on monetary policy issues, moreover, the RBA meeting w

The Structure Of Views And Economic- Mercantilism And Libertarianism

Saxo Bank | FXO Market Update - AUDUSD makes new lows and vols are bid

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 10.05.2022 19:27
Summary:  Risk continue to trade fairly poor while FX getting some relief from the USD bid. EURUSD and USDJPY been relative stable over the last session while AUDUSD is down from 0.7075 on the opening yesterday to 0.6920 lows today. Vols continue to trade bid and AUD vols are considerably higher after the last days move, 1 month AUDUSD up 2 vol from Friday to 15.25. Saxo Bank publishes two weekly FX Options Market Update reports covering changes and updates on the FX Options and FX Volatility market. They describe changes in FX volatility levels, risk premium and ideas how to trade based on these.FX volatility, source Saxo Bank. Vol column: At-the-money volatility for the given maturity. 1w column: Change of the at-the-money volatility for the given maturity over the last week. Source: Bloomberg, Blue: AUDUSD spot, Black: AUDUSD 1 month vol, Red: AUDUSD 1 month risk premium Risk continue to trade poor with equities another leg lower yesterday. FX trades relative stable with EURUSD holding above 1.0500 and USDJPY trading around 130.00 for the last week. Implied vol trades bid while realized vol starts to come lower in some pairs. AUDUSD traded down to 0.6920 today before data came out and showing strength of retail volumes. AUDUSD vols are turbo bid after spot has dropped from 0.7075 on the opening yesterday to 0.6920 lows today. 1 month is up from 13.25 on Friday to 15.25 now, trading as high as 15.70 earlier in Asia with spot on the lows. 1 month risk reversal has moved from 1.8 to 2.8 for puts in the same time and the risk premium has widen over the last days and currently trades at 2.3 vol. Next big data point is USD CPI tomorrow and consensus is for a move lower to 8.1 from the peak at the last reading at 8.5. If this happens we might get a relief rally in risk and USD to trade lower as we get a first indication of a turn around. The elevated vol and risk reversal makes it attractive to sell AUDUSD puts as a trade for a low CPI reading tomorrow. Sell 1 week 0.6900 AUDUSD putReceive 36 pips Alternative Sell 1 month 0.6700 AUDUSD putReceive 40 pips Spot ref.: 0.6960 Source: Saxo Bank The Top/Bottom charts shows the top 5 and bottom 5 values/changes for at-the-money vol, risk reversal (RR) and risk premium of the 45 currency pairs we are tracking. Risk premium: Implied (Imp) minus realized volatility. A positive risk premium means implied volatility trades above realized volatility, i.e. the implied volatility can be seen as “rich”. Change: The difference between current price/volatility and where it closed 1w ago. FX Options Trading: You should be aware that in purchasing Foreign Exchange Options, your potential loss will be the amount of the premium paid for the option, plus any fees or transaction charges that are applicable, should the option not achieve its strike price on the expiry date If you write an option, the risk involved is considerably higher than buying an option. You may be liable for margin to maintain your position and a loss may be sustained well in excess of the premium received. By writing an option, you accept a legal obligation to purchase or sell the underlying asset if the option is exercised against you; however far the market price has moved away from the strike. If you already own the underlying asset that you have contracted to sell, your risk will be limited. If you do not own the underlying asset the risk can be unlimited. Only experienced persons should contemplate writing uncovered options, then only after securing full detail of the applicable conditions and potential risk exposure. Learn more about FX Options: Forex Options – An introduction Forex Options – Exotic options Forex Options - Webinars
Trading Signals For The New Zealand Dollar To Swiss Franc Pair (NZD/CHF)

Ebury Weekly Analysis: Australian Dollar (AUD), Canadian Dollar (CAD), Chinese Yuan (CNY) | Ebury

Matthew Ryan Matthew Ryan 23.05.2022 15:20
AUD A broadly weaker US dollar, the easing of restrictions in China and expectations of a more rapid pace of tightening by the RBA boosted the Australian currency last week. The Australian dollar was one of the best performing currencies in the G10, briefly rallying through the 0.71 level against the US dollar this morning. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s May meeting minutes showed that the board is prepared to raise rates by larger increments at upcoming meetings in order to tame inflation. The minutes also showed that inflation is expected to increase further in the near-term, which has raised expectations in favour of more aggressive tightening. The latest economic data supports these expectations, with Australia’s unemployment rate falling to 3.9% in April, the lowest since August 1974. The most important event for AUD this week will likely be the release of the May preliminary PMIs on Tuesday, which are expected to remain in expansionary territory. On Friday, April retail sales will be published. Learn more on Ebury CAD The Canadian dollar ended the week modestly higher against the US dollar as Canadian inflation reached a three-decade high, although the currency underperformed most of its G10 peers. Canada’s April inflation surprised to the upside, reaching a 31-year high of 6.8%. The rise in commodity prices, mainly due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, continues to pressure inflation higher. But this is not the only reason and it seems that price pressure is spreading to more components, as core inflation rose to a record high of 5.8%. This data reinforced expectations of another 50 basis point hike at the Bank of Canada’s June meeting, which has continued to provide a bit of support for the Canadian dollar. On Thursday, March retail sales will be published. Aside from that, CAD is likely to be driven by events elsewhere. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM CNY Last week was a turning point for the yuan, with the USD/CNY pair returning to early-May levels amid a weaker US dollar and improving headlines out of China. News on the Covid front has taken a turn for the better. Shanghai has begun lifting some of its restrictions, with the city set to exit lockdown at the start of next month. Beijing has also continued to resist calls for a lockdown, despite another increase in virus caseloads. Last week’s 15 basis point cut to the PBoC’s 5-year loan prime rate, a reference rate for mortgages, has also raised hopes of an economic revival. The scale of the rate adjustment was larger than expected, and suggests China is serious in its efforts to support the struggling housing sector. Sentiment toward China received an additional boost from President Biden’s suggestions that the US may lift some of the Trump-era tariffs. The noises in that regard have been getting louder in the past few weeks, but the decision itself is not an easy one considering the geopolitical landscape in Asia and doubts about benefits to Americans from such a change. This week we’ll focus primarily on news from China’s Covid front as well as any headlines from president Biden’s trip to Asia, a first since he took office. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM To stay up to date with our publications, please choose one of the below: 📩 Click here to receive the latest market updates👉 Our LinkedIn page for the latest newsâœÂï¸Â Our Blog page for other FX market reports 🔊 Stay up to date with our podcast FXTalk
A Strong Bearish Signal For The Equity Markets And A Significant Support Factor For Dollar (USD)

(USD) US Dollar’s Orderly Retreat Continues | Having A Look At EUR/USD, GBP/USD And AUD/USD | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 25.05.2022 14:09
Recession jitters send US dollar lower The US dollar eased once again overnight, as US recession fears continue to lead to a repricing lower of Fed tightening expectations. With quantitative tightening starting next week and no signs of inflation falling, that may be more hope than reality. Nevertheless, one must respect the momentum in the short term, and the US dollar bull market correction still looks to have legs in it. ​ The dollar index fell by 0.32% to 101.77 overnight, but Asia is doing its usual countertrend moves today, pushing the dollar index back up to 101.95. The multi-year breakout line is at 102.40 today, forming initial resistance, while 101.50 and 101.00 loom as immediate supports. EUR/USD continued edging higher overnight, rising 0.42% to 1.0735 before falling by 0.28% to 1.0705 in Asia. Momentum already appears to be waning for EUR/USD, but I do not rule out at least a test of 1.0750 and 1.0825, the multi-decade breakout line. A weekly close above the latter is needed to suggest a medium-term low is in place. GBP/USD fell overnight, crushed by EUR/GBP buying, poor data and tax and political risk. It finished 0.42% lower at 1.2535 where it remains in Asia today. Sterling faces political risks, outlined above, today, and these will limit gains. It now has support at 1.2470, with a double top now at 1.2600. Even if the US dollar sell-off continues, sterling will remain euro’s poor cousin. AUD/USD remains steady at 0.7100 today, having probed the downside overnight Lower US yields saw USD/JPY fall 0.85% to 126.85 overnight where it remains in Asia, just below support, now resistance, at 127.00. A deeper selloff, potentially targeting the 125.00 support area, remains entirely possible given the market is still clearly very long USD/JPY. Once again, at those levels though, given the trajectory of US and Japan interest rates, being short becomes a dangerous game. AUD/USD remains steady at 0.7100 today, having probed the downside overnight. AUD/NZD buying is capping gains for now. A hawkish RBNZ today has sent the Kiwi dollar flying, NZD/USD jumping 0.65% to 0.6500. The rally is already showing signs of fatigue and a weekly close above 0.6550 is required to signal a potential medium-term low. Support is distant at 0.6420. Asian FX continued gaining against the US dollar overnight, but a stronger greenback in Asian time has erased those gains. A neutral USD/CNY fixing by the PBOC has given Asian markets little to go on today, with USD/CNY, USD/CNH and USD/THB rising by around 0.30%, while USD/KRW has risen by 0.10%. An impending Bank of Korea hike on Friday should limit the won’s weakness. The Malaysian ringgit looks like the most vulnerable regional currency right now, USD/MYR trading near 4.4000 today. With policy tightening gaining momentum among other Asian central banks, today’s benign inflation data reinforced that outlook. USD/MYR could potentially test 4.4500 by early next week. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
The Pressure On The JPY And The Japanese Financial System Mounts Again

Japanese Yen (JPY) Rise. Energy Prices Are Finally Falling!?

John Hardy John Hardy 16.08.2022 10:05
Summary:  Weak data out of China overnight, together with a surprise rate cut from the PBOC and collapsing energy prices later on Monday saw the Japanese yen surging higher across the board. Indeed, the two key factors behind its descent to multi-decade lows earlier this year, rising yields and surging energy prices, have eased considerably since mid-June with only modest reaction from the yen thus far. Is that about to change? FX Trading focus: JPY finding sudden support on new disinflation narrative Weaker than expected Chinese data overnight brought a surprise rate cut from the Chinese central bank and seems to have sparked a broadening sell-off in commodities, which was boosted later by a crude oil drop of some five dollars per barrel on the news that Iran will decide by midnight tonight on whether to accept a new draft on the nuclear deal forward by the Euro zone. In response, the Chinese yuan has weakened toward the highs for the cycle in USDCNH, trading 6.78+ as of this writing and  (there was a spike high to 6.381 back in May but the exchange rate has been capped by 6.80 since then), but the Japanese yen is stealing the volatility and strength crown, surging sharply across the board and following up on the move lower inspired by the soft US CPI data point. US long yields easing considerably lower after an odd spike last Thursday are a further wind at the JPY’s back here. In the bigger picture, it has been rather remarkable that the firm retreat in global long-date yields since the mid-June peak and the oil price backing down a full 25% and more from the cycle highs didn’t do more to support the yen from the yield-spread angle (Bank of Japan’s YCC policy less toxic as yields fall) and from the current account angle for Japan. Interestingly, while the JPY has surged and taken USDJPY down several notches, the US dollar is rather firm elsewhere, with the focus more on selling pro-cyclical and commodity currencies on the possible implication that China may be content to export deflation by weakening its currency now that commodity prices have come down rather than on selling the US dollar due to any marking down of Fed expectations. Still, while the USD may remain a safe haven should JPY volatility be set to run amok across markets, the focus is far more on the latter as long as USDJPY is falling Chart: EURJPY As the JPY surges here, EURJPY is falling sharply again, largely tracking the trajectory of longer European sovereign yields, which never really rose much from their recent lows from a couple of weeks back, making it tough to understand the solid rally back above 138.00 of late. After peaking above 1.90% briefly in June, the German 10-year Bund, for example, is trading about 100 basis points lower and is not far from the cycle low daily close at 77 basis points. The EURJPY chart features a rather significant pivot area at 133.50, a prior major high back in late 2021 and the recent low and 200-day moving average back at the beginning of the month. After a brief JPY volatility scare in late July and into early August that faded, are we set for a second and bigger round here that takes USDJPY down through 130.00 and EURJPY likewise? A more significant rally in long US treasuries might be required to bring about a real JPY rampage. Source: Saxo Group The focus on weak Chinese data and key commodity prices like copper suddenly losing altitude after their recent rally has the Aussie shifting to the defensive just after it was showing strength late last week in sympathy with strong risk sentiment and those higher commodity prices. Is the AUDUSD break above 0.7000-25 set for a high octane reversal here? AUDJPY is worth a look as well after it managed to surge all the way back toward the top of the range before. The idea that a weak Chine might export deflation from here might be unsettling for Aussie bulls. The US macro data focus for the week is on today’s NAHB homebuilder’s survey, which plunged to a low since 2015 in June (not including the chaotic early 2020 pandemic breakout months), the July Housing Starts and Building Permits and then the July Retail Sales and FOMC minutes on Wednesday. With a massive relief in gasoline prices from the July spike high, it will be interesting to see whether the August US data picks up again on the services side. The preliminary August University of Michigan sentiment survey release on Friday showed expectations rising sharply by over 7 points from the lowest since-1980 lows of June, while the Present Situation measure dropped a few points back toward the cycle (and record) lows from May. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength. The JPY is the real story today, but as our trending measures employ some averaging/smoothing, the move will need to stick what it has achieved today to show more. Watch out for a big shift in the commodity currencies in coming days as well if today’s move is the start of something. Elsewhere, the JPY comeback is merely taking CHF from strength to strength, although even the might franc has dropped against the JPY today. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs. Big momentum shift afoot today and watching whether this holds and the JPY pairs and pairs like AUDUSD and USDCAD to see if we are witnessing a major momentum shift in themes here. Also note NOK pairs like USDNOK and EURNOK here. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1400 – US Aug. NAHB Housing Market Index 0130 – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes Source: FX Update: JPY jumps on deflating energy prices, fresh retreat in yields.
Much Depends On Whether The Economy Slows Down Early Next Year

US Giving More Manufacturing Jobs This Year But The Production Disappoints

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 16.08.2022 10:30
After two-quarters of contraction, many still do not accept that the US economy is in a recession  Federal Reserve officials have pushed against it, as has Treasury Secretary Yellen. The nearly 530k rise in July nonfarm rolls, more than twice the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey, and a new cyclical low in unemployment (3.5%) lent credibility to their arguments. If Q3 data point to a growing economy, additional support will likely be found.   While the interest rate-sensitive housing sector may still feel the squeeze, we note that activity is at historically strong levels  Housing starts are expected to have fallen for the third consecutive month in July. That would be the longest decline since the last four months of 2018. However, around 1.5 mln annualized pace, starts are still elevated. Permits, which are leading indicators, are holding up even better. They peaked at the end of last year a little below 1.9 mln and may have fallen to around 1.65 mln in July. Since the Great Financial Crisis, they were above 1.5 mln only once (October 2019). before the surge began in mid-2020. Existing home sales have come off a bit more  They are expected to have fallen for the sixth consecutive month in July. It is the worst streak since 2013. Indeed, they are likely to fall below the 5 mln annualized mark for the first time since January 2019. Elevated mortgage rates are the highest since 2008 and have squeezed buyers while rising inventories have sparked some anecdotes about price cuts. The number of houses for sale rose for the first time in three years, around three months at the current pace of sales. Below five months of inventory is regarded as tight by realtors. Of interest, first-time buyers accounted for almost a third of the sales in June. Cash sales accounted for a quarter of all transactions in June. Houses were on the market for an average of two weeks last month, the shortest for more than a decade. Recall that new home sales are recorded on contract signings, while the existing home sales are counted on closes.   While the housing market is softening, consumption and output appear to have begun Q3 on solid footing  Retail sales, which account for around 40% of consumption, are expected to have edged by 0.1%-0.2% after a 1.0% rise in June. The drop in gasoline prices will likely be seen here and weigh on the retail sales, which are reported in nominal terms. Core retail sales, which excludes auto, gasoline, building materials, and food services, are expected to have risen 0.6% after 0.8% in June. More people working and earning a little bit more (on average), i.e., the income effect should help underpin consumption.   Manufacturers added 30k people to their payrolls in July, the most in three months and matching last year's average pace  The US has added more manufacturing jobs through July than it did in the same period a year ago (273k vs. 161k). Manufacturing output has disappointed. It fell by 0.5% in both May and June. The decline in vehicle and parts output may have been partially reversed in July amid a recovery in auto sales. Higher commodity prices encouraged mining output in May and June (1.2% and 1.7%, respectively). It may have slowed as commodity prices fell in July. The scorching summer and demand for air conditioning likely boosted utility output, which had fallen in June (-1.4%).  On a year-over-year basis, industrial output often contracts into a recession but not always before the start of the recession  Through June, it has risen by almost 4.2%. The capacity utilization rate is expected to have above 80.0% for the fourth consecutive month. That would match the last cyclical peak in 2018, the longest since the Great Financial Crisis. Utilization rates fall sharply during a recession. In two of the last three recessions, capacity usage fell before the downturn was dated. In the Financial Crisis, the peak coincided with the start of the recession. The US also reports the capital flow data for June (TIC on August 15) While a favorite of reporters and analysts, it is not a market mover. Through May, net long-term foreign capital inflows have been a little more than $465 bln., which is about an 8.5% increase from a year ago. Finally, the Empire State Survey August 15) and the Philadelphia Fed surveys (August 18), the first look into August aside for the weekly jobs claims and mortgage applications. The market appears to put more weight on some components of the Philly survey.   Three economic releases from Japan will draw attention  Japan reports its first estimate of Q2 GDP to kick off the week. The world's third-largest economy contracted at an annualized rate of  0.5% in Q1 but is expected to have rebounded to 2.7% in Q2. That translates into a 0.7% quarterly expansion (seasonally adjusted) after shrinking by 0.1% in Q1. Consumption and business investment rebounded. Inventories were likely unwound. After rising 0.5% in Q1, the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey looks for a 0.3% decline. The GDP deflator has been negative for the past five quarters. It was at -0.5% in Q1, but economists (Bloomberg survey) project a decline to -0.8%.  Despite the GDP deflator still showing deflation's grip, the July CPI (August 19) is likely to show inflation continues to rise above the BOJ's target  It targets the CPI, excluding fresh food, at 2.0%. It stood at 2.2% in June and is likely to have ticked up a little in July. The Tokyo CPI has already been reported. The core measure rose to 2.3% from 2.1%. Tokyo's headline rate increased to 2.5% from 2.3%, and the measure excluding food and energy crept up to 1.2% from 1.0%.  July trade figures will be reported on August 17 Japan is experiencing a  massive terms-of-trade shock. In the first half of this year, Japan reported a JPY7.94 trillion (~$59 bln) deficit. In H1 21,  it had a trade surplus of about JPY810 bln (~$6 bln). The problem is not with merchandise exports. In June, they were up almost a fifth from last year, when they were by nearly 50% over 2020. Imports have surged with food and energy prices. Merchandise imports had risen 46% above the year-ago level in June, and that is after an increase by a third from June 2020.   The UK and Canada report July retail sales and CPI  The UK also publishes its latest employment report, while Canada updates housing starts and portfolio flows. The data poses headline risk, but the macroeconomic backdrop is unlikely to change significantly. The Bank of England warns that the economy will enter a protracted recession that will carry into 2024. The Bloomberg survey found that the median forecast assessed a 45% probability of a recession over the next 12 months.   UK's labor market is fairly strong, and the unemployment rate is at 3.8%, having bottomed at 3.7% in March, the lowest level since 1974. Inflation is rising, and the base effect underscores the upside risk. Last July, CPI was unchanged on the month.   While wage growth may be strong, it is insufficient to cover the rising cost of living and this squeezing consumption June was the first month since October 2021 that retail sales, excluding gasoline, rose. However, UK retail sales, reported in volume terms, have fallen an average of 0.5% a month over the past 12 months. If there is going to be relief for the UK household, it will have to come from the new government. The Bank of England has one objective. Bring down inflation. The swaps market has discounted almost an 85% chance of another 50 bp increase to 2.25% at the September 15 meeting. It sees a year-end rate of around 2.80%, implying nearly 75 bp hikes in Q4.   Canada's labor market improvement is stalling, and it looks like the economy is too The monthly GDP downshifted from 0.7-0.8% in February and March to 0.3% in April and flat in May. Retail sales have been strong, flattered by rising prices. Through May, they have increased by an average of 1.5% a month. The average in the first five months of 2021 was 0.6. Canadian inflation accelerated to 8.1% in June and may have slowed in July for the first time since June 2021. Underlying core measures are expected to have stayed firm. Last month, the Bank of Canada surprised the market with a 100 bp hike in the overnight lending rate to 2.50%. The swaps market briefly took the possibility of a 75 bp hike at the September 7 meeting very seriously but now has slightly better than a 40% chance.  In Australia, the labor market is in focus  It added 60k full-time positions on average a month in Q2 after a 50.5k average in Q1. The pace is likely to moderate. The participation rate of 66.8% set in June was a record high. The unemployment rate of 3.5% was also a record low. There are some signs that the overall economy may be losing some momentum. Still, with CPI accelerating from 5.1% in Q1 to 6.1% in Q2, the Reserve Bank of Australia is tightening policy. After delivering the first hike in May of 25 bp, it lifted the cash target rate in 50 bp clips in June through August. Speculation of another 50 bp hike at the September 6 meeting is seen as slightly better than even money.  The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on August 17  It will most likely deliver the seventh hike in the cycle that began last October. After three quarter-point moves, it delivered three 50 bp hikes. The cash target rate now stands at 2.50%. With Q2 inflation rising faster than expected (7.3% year-over-year), unemployment low (3.3% in Q2; record low set last December at 3.2%), more forceful action is possible. However, the swaps market judges it unlikely and has about a 90% chance of a 50 bp hike reflected in current prices. The New Zealand dollar is strong, at its best level in two months, but maybe too strong. Although it closed firmly ahead for the weekend, it looks stretched from a technical perspective, perhaps signaling a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" type of activity.  Norway's central bank, Norges Bank, meets on August 18  A few hours after Norway reports Q2 GDP, Norges Bank makes its rate announcement. Typically, it prefers to adjust policy when it updates its economic assessment, similar in this regard to the European Central Bank. However, last week's CPI shock heightens the risk it breaks from the pattern. Headline CPI jumped 1.3% in July, lifting the year-over-year rate to 6.8%. The median forecast (Bloomberg's survey) was for an unchanged 6.3% pace. The underlying rate, which excludes energy and adjusts for tax changes, surged by 1.5%, nearly twice as much as expected. As a result, the year-over-year change was boosted to 4.5% from 3.6%.   The deposit rate stands at 1.25%  Norges Bank began the tightening cycle last September but has raised it by a cumulative 125 bp. However, among the high-income countries in Europe, only the UK's policy rate is higher. Sweden's inflation is higher at 8.5% (July from 8.7% in June), and its policy rate is 50 bp less than Norway. Since June 16, the day after the FOMC meeting that results in the first 75 bp rate hike, the Norwegian krone has been the strongest major currency, gaining 3.9% against the US dollar and 6.8% against the euro. Look for the dollar to correct higher, even if a 50 bp hike is delivered.    Disclaimer   Source: Week Ahead: More Evidence US Consumption and Output are Expanding, and RBNZ and Norges Bank to Hike
Technical Outlook Of The EUR/USD Pair By Oscar Ton

Everyone Is Dissapointed In Euro (EUR). Japanese Officials Have To Face Discontests From Yields Rise

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 21.08.2022 23:14
For many, this will be the last week of the summer. However, in an unusual twist of the calendar, the US August employment report will be released on September 2, the end of the following week, rather than after the US Labor Day holiday (September 5).   The main economic report of the week ahead will be the preliminary estimate of the August PMI  The policy implications are not as obvious as they may seem. For example, in July, the eurozone composite PMI slipped below the 50 boom/bust level for the first time since February 2021. It was the third consecutive decline. Bloomberg's monthly survey of economists picked up a cut in Q3 GDP forecasts to 0.1% from 0.2% and a contraction of 0.2% in Q4 (previously 0.2% growth). Over the past week, the swaps market has moved from around 80% sure of a 50 bp hike next month to a nearly 20% chance it will lift the deposit rate by 75 bp.  The UK's composite PMI fell in three of the four months through July  However, at 52.1, it remains above the boom/bust level, though it is the weakest since February 2021. The Bank of England's latest forecasts are more pessimistic than the market. It projects the economy will contract by 1.5% next year and another 0.3% in 2024. It has CPI peaking later this year at around 13% before falling to 5.5% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024. Market expectations have turned more hawkish for the BOE too. A week ago, the swap market was pricing in a nearly 90% chance of another 50 bp hike. After the CPI jump reported in the middle of last week, the market fully priced in the 50 bp move and a nearly 30% chance of a 75 bp hike.   Japanese officials have successfully turned back market pressure that had driven the benchmark three-month implied volatility to 14% in mid-June, more than twice as high as it was at the start of the year  It slipped below 10% in recent days. The BOJ was forced to vigorously defend its 0.25% cap on the 10-year bond. It has spent the better part of the past three weeks below 0.20%. The BOJ has not had to spend a single yen on its defense since the end of June. However, with the jump in global yields (US 10-year yield rose 20 bp last week, the German Bund 33 bp, and the 10-year UK Gilt nearly 40 bp) and the weakness of the yen, the BOJ is likely to be challenged again.   The economy remains challenging  The composite PMI fell to 50.2 in July from 53.2 in June. It is the weakest reading since February. It has averaged 50.4 through July this year. The average for the first seven months last year was 49.0. The government is working on some support measures aimed at extending the efforts to cushion the blow of higher energy and food prices. Japan's Q2 GDP deflator was minus 0.4%, which was half of the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey, but it shows the tough bind of policy. Consider that the July CPI rose to 2.6%, and the core measure, which the BOJ targets, excludes fresh food, rose to 2.4% from 2.2%. The target is 2%, and it was the third month above it. Tokyo will report its August CPI figures at the end of the week.   Australia's flash PMI may be more influential as the futures market is nearly evenly split between a 25 bp hike and a 50 bp move at the September 6 central bank meeting  The minutes from the RBA's meeting earlier this month underscored its data dependency. However, this is about the pace of the move. The target rate is currently at 1.85%, and the futures market is near 3.15% for the end of the year, well beyond the 2.5% that the central bank sees as neutral. The weakness of China's economy may dent the positive terms-of-trade shock. The Melbourne Institute measure of consumer inflation expectations fell in August for the second month but at 5.9%, is still too high.  Through the statistical quirkiness of GDP-math, the US economy contracted in the first two quarters of the year  A larger trade deficit did not help, but the real problem was inventories. In fairness, more of the nominal growth resulted from higher prices than economists expected rather than underlying activity. Still, it does appear that the US economy is expanding this quarter, and the high-frequency data will help investors and economists assess the magnitude. While surveys are helpful, the upcoming real sector data include durable goods orders (and shipments, which feed into GDP models), July personal income and consumption figures, the July goods trade balance, and wholesale and retail inventories.   Consumption still drives more than 2/3 of the economy, and like retail sales, personal consumption expenditures are reported in nominal terms, which means that they are inflated by rising prices  However, the PCE deflator is expected to slow dramatically. After jumping 1% in June, the headline deflator is expected to increase by 0.1%. This will allow the year-over-year rate to slow slightly (~6.5% from 6.8%). The core deflator is forecast (median, Bloomberg's survey) to rise by 0.4%, which given the base effect, could see the smallest of declines in the year-over-year rate that stood at 4.8% in June. Given the Fed's revealed preferences when it cited the CPI rise in the decision in June to hike by 75 bp instead of 50 bp, the CPI has stolen the PCE deflator's thunder, even though the Fed targets the PCE deflator. Real consumption was flat in Q2, and Q3 is likely to have begun on firmer footing.   The softer than expected CPI, PPI, and import/export prices spurred the market into downgrading the chances of a 75 bp hike by the Fed next month  After the stronger than expected jobs growth, the Fed funds futures priced in a little better than a 75% chance of a 75 bp hike. It has been mostly hovering in the 40%-45% range most of last week but finished near 55%. It is becoming a habit for the market to read the Fed dovishly even though it is engaged in a more aggressive course than the markets anticipated. This market bias warns of the risk of a market reversal after Powell speaks on August 26.   At the end of last year, the Fed funds futures anticipated a target rate of about 0.80% at the end of this year. Now it says 3.50%. The pace of quantitative tightening is more than expected and will double starting next month. There is also the tightening provided by the dollar's appreciation. For example, at the end of 2021, the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey saw the euro finishing this year at $1.15. Now the median sees the euro at $1.04 at the end of December. And even this may prove too high.    The FOMC minutes from last month's meeting recognized two risks. The first was that the Fed would tighten too much. Monetary policy impacts with a lag, which also acknowledges that soft-landing is difficult to achieve. The market initially focused on this risk as is its wont. However, the Fed also recognized the risk of inflation becoming entrenched and characterized this risk as "significant." The Jackson Hole confab (August 25-27) will allow the Fed to help steer investors and businesses between Scylla and Charybdis.  Critics jumped all over Fed Chair Powell's claim that the Fed funds target is now in the area the officials regard as neutral. This was not a forecast by the Chair, but merely a description of the long-term target rate understood as neither stimulating nor restricting the economy. In June, all but three Fed officials saw the long-term rate between 2.25% and 2.50%. To put that in perspective, recall that in December 2019, the median view of the long-term target was 2.50%. Eleven of the 18 Fed officials put their "dot" between 2.25% and 2.50%. The FOMC minutes were clear that a restrictive stance is necessary, and the Fed clearly signaled additional rate hikes are required. The discussions at Jackson Hole may clarify what the neutral rate means.  Barring a significant downside surprise, we expect the Fed will deliver its third consecutive 75 bp increase next month. The strength and breadth of the jobs growth while price pressures remain too high and financial conditions have eased encourages the Fed to move as fast as the market allows. However, before it meets, several important high-frequency data points will be revealed, including a few employment measures, the August nonfarm payroll report, and CPI.   The market is also having second thoughts about a rate cut next year  At the end of July, the implied yield of the December 2023 Fed funds futures was 50 bp below the implied yield of the December 2022 contract. It settled last week at near an 8 bp discount. This reflects a growing belief that the Fed will hike rates in Q1 23. The March 2023 contract's implied yield has risen from less than five basis points more than the December 2022 contract to more than  20 bp above it at the end of last week.   Let's turn to the individual currency pairs, put last week's price action into the larger context, and assess the dollar's technical condition  We correctly anticipated the end of the dollar's pullback that began in mid-July, but the power for the bounce surprises. Key technical levels have been surpassed, warning that the greenback will likely retest the July highs.   Dollar Index: DXY surged by more than 2.3% last week, its biggest weekly advance since March 2020. The momentum indicators are constructive and not over-extended. However, it closed well above the upper Bollinger Band (two standard deviations above the 20-day moving average), found near 107.70. Little stands in the way of a test on the mid-July high set around 109.30. Above there, the 110-111.30 area beckons. While the 107.50 area may offer some support now, a stronger floor may be found closer to 107.00.   Euro:  The euro was turned back from the $1.0365-70 area on August 10-11 and put in a low near $1.0030 ahead of the weekend. The five-day moving average slipped below the 20-day moving average for the first time in around 3.5 weeks. The MACD is trending lower, while the Slow Stochastic did not confirm the recent high, leaving a bearish divergence in its wake. The only caution comes from the euro's push through the lower Bollinger Band (~$1.0070). Initially, parity may hold, but the risk is a retest on the mid-July $0.9950 low. A convincing break could target the $0.96-$0.97 area. As the euro has retreated, the US two-year premium over Germany has trended lower. It has fallen more than 30 bp since peaking on August 5. We find that the rate differential often peaks before the dollar.   Japanese Yen: The dollar will begin the new week with a four-day advance against the yen in tow. It has surpassed the (61.8%) retracement objective of the pullback since the mid-July high (~JPY139.40) found near JPY136.00. The momentum indicators are constructive, and the five-day moving average has crossed above the 20-day for the first time since late July. It tested the lower band of the next resistance bans seen in the JPY137.25-50 area at the end of last week. But it appears poised to re-challenge the highs. As volatility increases and yields rise, Japanese officials return to their first line of defense: verbal intervention.  British Pound: Sterling took out the neckline of a possible double top we have been monitoring that came in at $1.20. It projects toward the two-year lows set in mid-July near $1.1760, dipping below $1.18 ahead of the weekend. As one would expect, the momentum indicators are headed lower, and the five-day moving average has fallen below the 20-day moving average for the first time in four weeks. It has closed below its lower Bollinger Band (~$1.1910) in the last two sessions. A convincing break of the $1.1760 low clears the way to the March 2020 low, about 3.5-cents lower. Initial resistance is now seen around $1.1860 and, if paid, could signal scope for another 3/4 to a full-cent squeeze.  Canadian Dollar:  The Canadian dollar was no match for the greenback, which moved above CAD1.30 ahead of the weekend for the first time in a month. The momentum indicators suggest the US dollar has more scope to advance, and the next target is the CAD1.3035 area. Above there, the CAD1.3100-35 band is next. The high since November 2020 was recorded in the middle of July around CAD1.3225. After whipsawing in Q1, the five- and 20-day moving averages have caught the big moves. The shorter average crossed above the longer moving average last week for the first time since July 21. Initial support will likely be encountered near CAD1.2935.   Australian Dollar:  The Aussie was sold every day last week. It is the first time in a year, and its 3.4% drop is the largest since September 2020.   The rally from the mid-July low (~$0.6680) to the recent high (~$0.7135) looks corrective in nature. Before the weekend, it tested the rally's (61.8%) retracement objective. The momentum indicators are falling, and the Slow Stochastic did not confirm this month's high, creating a bearish divergence. A break of the $0.6850-60 area may signal follow-through selling into the $0.6790-$0.6800 band, but a retest on the July low is looking increasingly likely. Initial resistance is now seen near $0.6920.   Mexican Peso:  The peso's four-day slide ended a six-day run. The peso lost about 1.6% last week, slightly better than the 2.25% slide of the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index. This month, the US dollar peaked around MXN20.8335 and proceeded to fall and forged a base near MXN19.81. It has met the (38.2%) retracement objective around MXN20.20 before the weekend. The next (50%) retracement is near MXN20.3230. The 200-day moving average is closer to MXN20.41. The dollar is probing the 20-day moving average seen a little below MXN20.24. The momentum indicators have only just turned up for the greenback. We suspect there may be potential to around MXN20.50 in the coming days.   Chinese Yuan:  The yuan was tagged with more than a 1% loss against the dollar last week, its biggest decline in three months. A combination of poor Chinese data, its small rate cut, and a resurgent US dollar spurred the exchange rate adjustment. At the end of July, China's 10-year yield was about 11 bp on top of the US. However, it switched to a discount after the US jobs data (August 5), and the discount grew every day last week, reaching 35 bp, the most since late June. After gapping higher before the weekend, the greenback reached nearly CNY6.8190, its highest level since September 2020. The next target is around CNY6.85, but given the divergence of policy, a move back toward CNY7.00, last seen in July 2020, maybe a reasonable medium-term target. The PBOC's dollar fix ahead of the weekend showed no protest of the weaker exchange rate.     Disclaimer   Source: Flash PMI, Jackson Hole, and the Price Action
The Market Has Recently Decreased Demand For US Dollar (USD)

The US Dollar (USD) Surrendered Earlier Gains And Remains Lower!

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 30.08.2022 13:12
Overview: Corrective pressures were evident yesterday and they extended today in Asia and Europe but seem to be running their course now. Market participants should view these developments as countertrend and be wary of waning risk appetites in North America today. Most Asia Pacific equities rallied earlier today, save China and Hong Kong. Europe’s Stoxx 600 has retraced most of yesterday’s losses and US futures are trading higher. Benchmark bond yields are softer with the US 10-year note yield off about 3.5 bp to below 3.07%. European yields are mostly 3-5 bp lower, but UK Gilts are pressured by reports that foreign investors were heavy sellers last month. The US dollar surrendered earlier gains yesterday and is mostly lower today. The Australian dollar is leading the charge, despite a much sharper than expected fall in building approvals. Among emerging market currencies, only the Philippine peso and Taiwanese dollar are failing to push higher. Gold is soft, despite the weaker greenback and lower yields. It is nursing losses for the third session. After a sharp 4.25% gain yesterday, October WTI is pulling back by around 1.75% today toward $95. US natgas is off 2%, while Europe’s benchmark has extended yesterday’s 19.5% drop with a further 6.6% slide today. China’s property sector woes are weighing on the steel sector and iron ore prices have fallen 8% over the past two sessions and is below $100 for the first time this month. December copper is off 1% after falling 2.3% yesterday. December wheat is paring yesterday’s 4.6% gain.  Asia Pacific Japan reported that its unemployment rate was unchanged in July at 2.6%. The job-to-applicant ratio unexpectedly ticked up to 1.29 from 1.27. The upticks in the yen, however, are more related to the pullback in US yields than the developments in the Japanese economy. Tomorrow, Japan reports July industrial output, and after the 9.2% surge in June, related to the lagged response to re-opening in Shanghai likely eased a bit. Retail sales offer the opposite trajectory. They fell a whopping 1.3% in June and likely stabilized in July, allowing for a small gain. In June apparel and general merchandise purchases were particularly weak. Rising interest rates are squeezing Australia's property market more intensely than expected. Building approvals plunged 17.2% in July, six-times more than the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey. The drop was driven by the private sector apartments rather than houses. The number of private sector approvals was the lowest since January 2012. The disappointment did prevent the Australian dollar from recovering today, amid the general pullback in the US dollar, but the odds of a 50 bp hike next week were shaved to around 65% from 70% yesterday. Rains in Sichuan have eased the energy emergency allowing large-scale industry to result production this week. The provincial government downgraded the emergency to level-one from level-two yesterday and several companies (including Toyota, Honda, and Foxconn) indicated a resumption of production. Cooler weather was also helping reduce household demand for electricity. Yet, Sichuan has gone from drought to flood. Reports suggest that nearly 325 mines, including 60 coal mines, with 5000 workers have been asked to take shutdown for precautionary reasons. Meanwhile, the zero-Covid policy has led to lockdowns in parts of Shenzhen. Softer US rates and a downside correction in the US dollar after reaching JPY139 yesterday has seen the greenback ease toward JPY138.15. The JPY137.95 area corresponds to a (38.2%) retracement of the dollar rally since before Powell spoke at Jackson Hole at the end of last week. We suspect the corrective pressure have been exhausted or nearly so and expect North American traders to buy the dollar the on the dip. Yesterday's low was slightly above JPY137.35. The Australian dollar took out a neckline of what may be a potential head and shoulder top yesterday but recovered to close above it (~$0.6850). Follow-through buying today has lifted it to around $0.6955. Here too, we think the short squeeze has nearly run its course in the European morning. The $0.6965-70 area may offer the nearby cap. For the fifth consecutive session, the PBOC set the dollar's reference rate lower than the market (median in Bloomberg's survey) expected, and the gap today (~249 pips) was the most since the Bloomberg survey began four years ago (CNY6.8802 vs. CNY6.9051). The PBOC seemed willing to accept an orderly decline of the yuan, especially given the divergence of monetary policy, but wants to avoid a vicious cycle. This was underscored by its announcement of a consultation period as it considers a news policy to require prior approval for companies wishing to sell long-term debt in offshore markets. At the same time, we read the fixing as a type of affirmation through negation, i.e., the PBOC's action acknowledges the strength of the demand for dollars. The dollar rose to a two-year high yesterday, after rising nearly 2% over the previous two weeks. Today, it slipped less than 0.1%. Europe Attention turns to eurozone's August inflation, ahead of tomorrow's aggregate report. Spain began with a 0.1% month-over-month increase that saw the harmonized year-over-year pace ease for the first time in four months. It slipped to 10.3% from 10.7%. However, the core rate rose to 6.4% from 6.1%. German states have reported, and they all showed of the year-over-year rate, even as the month-over-month change moderated to 0.2%-0.4%. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey sees a 0.4% increase in the harmonized rate for an 8.8% year-over-year increase (from 8.5% in July). The risk is on the upside. With the surge in energy prices, the Bundesbank chief Nagel warned that Germany inflation could rise to over 10%. The EU is holding an emergency energy ministers meetings on September 9 to consider efforts to coordinate a response. The focus appears capping gas prices and/or decoupling electricity prices from gas prices. EU countries have already "spent" and estimated 280 bln euros on tax cuts or subsidies for energy. Quietly, the German two-year yield has doubled in the past two weeks from 0.53% on August 15 to 1.10% yesterday. The German yield has risen faster than comparable US yield. As a consequence, the US 2-year premium has fallen below 240 bp for the first time since early July. It recorded a three-year peak on August 5 a little more than 277 bp. One of the spurs to the more than 22 bp increase in the German two-yield over the past two sessions has been the push from some of the hawks for a 75 bp move at next week's ECB meeting. While it is noteworthy that it was not done via leaks to the press this time, as sometimes is has appeared in the past, and the market seems to think it is likely. The swaps market shows it be a little more than a 60% chance of materializing, up from about a 20% chance a week ago. Our own subjective assessment is that a steady series of 50 bp hikes is more likely to achieve a consensus than a jump to 75 bp and a return to 50 bp or even 25 bp. Given the fragile economic condition, and with little to gain from a larger move than cannot be achieved through the ECB's forward guidance, a stable, predictable course is likely preferable. That said, the provocative tactics of the hawks seems to be an attempt to deliver a fait accompli to the ECB. If they deliver a 50 bp hike, they will appear as dovish versus expectations and could pressure the euro lower in disappointment. The short-covering bounce in the euro began yesterday when the $0.9900 area held. There are a little more than 3 bln euros in options struck there that roll-off today. The gains maybe spurring demand related to 1.55 bln in options struck at $1.00 that expire tomorrow. The euro is at its best level since Powell spoke. Just prior to the Fed Chair's speech last week, the euro spiked to $1.0090. This area should provide a cap now. Sterling's recovery off yesterday's two-year low (~$1.1650) seems less inspired and has not been able to push above yesterday's high (~$1.1785). And even if it does, the upticks will likely be limited to the $1.18 area, which is the (61.8%) retracement of the decline since the high set before Powell spoke (($1.1900). The intraday momentum indicators are stretched by the gains of a little more than half a cent in the European morning. Separately, the decision by the Hungarian central bank is awaited. It is expected to hike the base rate by 100 bp today after hiking by 300 bp last month. This move will bring the base rate to 11.75%. It was at 2.4% at the end of last year.    America The two-year breakeven has now fallen slightly more than 25 bp over the past three sessions to about 2.70%. Over the three sessions, the nominal two-year yield has risen by a grand total of three basis points to 3.42%. The odds of a 75 bp hike next has edged to about 75% from about 66% before Powell spoke at Jackson Hole and gave no signal besides saying it could be 50 bp or 75 bp move. The difference, the 25 bp is coming in addition to the other anticipated moves. What this means is the market now sees the year-end Fed funds target closer to 3.75% rather than 3.50%. The implied yield of the March 2023 Fed funds futures is pricing in about an 80% chance of a hike in Q1, unchanged for the third consecutive session. The market also continues to price in 7-9 bp of easing by the end of next year as it has for the past five sessions. Ahead of the US jobs data, which are the highlight of the week, with the ADP estimate tomorrow, house prices, the Conference Board's consumer confidence, and the JOLTS report on job openings are featured today. While the Fed's Kashkari's comments about the stock market and the Fed's objective of tightening of financial conditions are really revealing anything new, the undiplomatic expression seemed to set the chins wagging. Equity prices are part of the financial conditions but so are interest rates, ease of credit, and asset prices more generally. House price inflation appears to be slowing and this alongside weaker financial asset prices are part of the process. Canada reports its Q2 current account surplus, which is reflecting the positive terms-of-trade shock. Consider that in 2019, before Covid, Canada recorded a C$47 bln current account deficit. With a Q2 surplus of C$6.8 bln expected, it would mean Canada has recorded a nearly C$11 bln current account surplus in H1 22. Tomorrow, Canada reports Q2 GDP and it is expected to have accelerated to around 4.4% form 3.1% in Q1. Still, even with today's modest gain, the Canadian dollar is off about 2.7% this year against the US dollar. The broader risk environment is a more important driver of the exchange rate. Mexico reports its July unemployment rate. It is expected to have ticked up to 3.53% from 3.35%. The market does not appear sensitive to this time series. Tomorrow, the central bank's inflation report is due, but it’s unlikely to impact expectations for a 75 bp hike late September. The US dollar set a new high for August near CAD1.3075 before pulling back toward CAD1.2990. Follow-through selling today has been limited to the CAD1.2970 area, just above CAD1.2965 retracement objective. The momentum indicators suggest that losses below that will be limited and instead the greenback could recover toward CAD1.3025. The Mexican peso's resilience is evident. It continues to trade well within this month's range. The dollar has built a base around MXN19.81 and has not closed above the 20-day moving average (~MXN20.0735) since August 2. However, further dollar losses today look limited.     Disclaimer   Source: Turn Around Tuesday Began Yesterday, Likely Ends before Wednesday
Now The Price Of AUD/USD Pair Is Building Strength

Japanese Yen (JPY) And Australian Dollar (AUD) Are Still Standing!

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 31.08.2022 12:41
Overview:  The rise in global interest rates continues. The US 10-year yield is a few basis points to near 3.15% and European benchmarks are mostly 5-6 bp higher. Of note, the sharp sell-off in UK Gilts is being extended. Yesterday’s 10 bp rise has been followed by another 14 bp surge today. Italian bonds are also getting hit. The 10-year yield is up a little more than 10 bp. The US dollar is mostly firmer against the major currencies, though the yen and Australian dollar are little changed. Among the emerging market currencies, a small number of Asian currencies, including the Chinese yuan and South Korean won are firmer, but most are under pressure. Equity markets in the Asia Pacific region were mixed, but the downside bias is evident in Europe, where the Stoxx 600 is lower for the fourth consecutive session and seven of the last nine. It is at new lows since mid-July. US futures are narrowly mixed and have a three-day loss in tow. Gold is also making new lows for the August and traded at $1711 having been above $1800 in the middle of the month. Iraq says its exports will not disrupted by the violent demonstrations helped the October WTI contract reverse lower yesterday (possible key downside reversal) and today it is testing the 200-day moving average near $89. US natgas is steady after falling 3.3% yesterday. Europe’s Dutch benchmark is up nearly 5% to snap a three-day slide of over 20%. Iron ore jumped nearly 3.8% to resurface above $100 and halt the two-day slide of almost 8%. December copper is slipping lower for the fourth session and is trading near four-week lows below $354. December wheat is slipping further after falling 2.7% yesterday.  Asia Pacific China's composite August PMI eased to 51.7 from 52.4. The contraction in the manufacturing sector continued with the PMI below 50 for the second consecutive month (49.4 vs. 49.0). The drought, power outages, Covid disruptions, and the ongoing drag from the end of the property bubble are hobbling the economy. The drop in supplier delivery times (49.5 from 50.1) are illustrative. Output and new orders continued to fall. The non-manufacturing PMI slowed to 52.6 from 53.8. Construction, reflecting, the emphasis of government efforts on manufacturing remained a bright spot at 56.5, albeit down from 59.2 in July. Japan's industrial production and retail sales were better than expected. Industrial production has surged 9.2% in June (month-over-month) in a response to the re-opening of Shanghai from Covid lockdowns and many expected a small pullback in in July. Instead, the preliminary estimate has it growing by another 1% in July. Autos, boilers, and turbines output grew, according to the report. Retail sales rose by 0.8% in July, more than twice the median in Bloomberg survey after the June series was revised to show a 1.3% decline rather than 1.4%. Autos, food, and beverages led the better-than-expected report. Today's data suggests a firm start to Q3. Economists expect the world's third-largest economy to expand by around 2.0% in Q3. The US claims, and echoed by many media outlets, that it is not seeking to change the status quo about Taiwan, but that Beijing is. Beijing claims that it is the US that is the antagonist. Both assessments seem correct. Leave aside Pelosi's visit and the other official visits, often using US military aircraft. Forget about reports of US military advisers in Taiwan for nearly two years. Consider a bill before Congress that proposes to declare Taiwan an important non-NATO ally. Consider Senator Blackburn's suggestion earlier this week that it is "may be" time to revisit the US one-China policy President Biden has intimated as much on several occasions only to have his comments "walked back." Beijing is no innocent bystander. It continues to harass Taiwan and challenge others in the South China Sea, including the Philippines and Japan. Yesterday, Taiwan fired warning shots for the first time at a PRC drone near an offshore island. Beijing struck a secret deal with the Solomon Islands a few months ago and one of the consequences has become clearer in recent days. Last week, a US coast guard ship was denied refueling permission by the Solomon Islands, which has declared a moratorium on all US Navy visits pending an update of its protocol of procedures. The US embassy was closed in the Solomon Islands nearly two decades ago, but plans on re-opening it, according to press reports earlier this year. The yen did not react much to the better-than-expected local data, and the firm US yields kept the US dollar firm. The greenback is little changed, but so far, holding below yesterday's high slightly above JPY139.05. It is also holding above yesterday's low just above JPY138.00, where the five-day moving average is found. The Australian dollar finished North American session on its lows yesterday, near $0.6855. There has been no follow-through selling yet today and the Aussie poked above $0.6900 before finding new offers, which is also where the five-day moving average is found. Position-adjusting around the expiration of options for A$400 mln today at $0.6875 and tomorrow for A$720 mln at $0.6867 may be contributing to the choppy tone. For the sixth consecutive session, the PBOC set the dollar's reference rate below market expectations (Bloomberg survey) as CNY6.8906 vs. CNY6.9083. The dollar gapped higher on Monday against the yuan. It entered the gap today, which extends to last Friday's high around CNY6.8730 and recorded a low near CNY6.8870. Its sideways movement follows a two-and-a-half week gain of about 2.3%. Europe France reported slightly softer inflation but also considerably weak consumer spending. The EU harmonized CPI rose 0.4% in August for a 6.5% year-over-year rise (6.8% in July). France caps on energy prices run until the end of the year, but the government is considering new measures and the EU is considering collective action. Service price inflation was sustained, and food and manufactured goods prices accelerated. Consumer spending fell 0.8% in July compared with a 0.2% decline median projection in Bloomberg's survey. June's 0.2% increase was shaved to 0.1%. The third quarter is off to a weak start. After contracting by 0.2% in in Q1, the French economy expanded by 0.5% in Q2. The 0.3% forecast for Q3 might be a bit optimistic. Italy's harmonized CPI jumped to 9.0% from 8.4%. Many economists had hoped for a dip to 8.2%. The month-over-month gain of 0.8% followed a 1.1% decline in July. Recall that yesterday's German inflation edged up to 8.8% from 8.5% and Spain's eased to 10.3% from 10.7%. The aggregate eurozone inflation figures were worse than expected. The headline rose to 9.1% from 8.9%. However, more troubling was the jump in the core rate to 4.3% from 4.0%. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey looked for a 4.1% year-over-year core rate. The euro was sold to session lows (~$0.;9975) a few minutes before the report. The swaps market is pricing in a slightly greater chance of a 75 bp hike next week by the ECB, just shy of a 66% chance. It was about 50% at the end of last week. There is a dramatic interest rate adjustment taking place in Europe, which over time, will likely impact the foreign exchange market. Yesterday, we noted that the Germany two-year interest rate more than doubled in the past two weeks (from about 0.50% on August 16 to almost 1.20% on Monday and about 1.18% today). This has overwhelmed the increase in US yields and sliced the US premium to about 230 bp, the lowest since early July. The UK 2-year Gilt is not slouch. It has played a bit of catch-up yesterday and traded above 3% for the first time since 2008. It spent most of July and the first half of August below 2%. At the start of the year, the UK and US two-year yields were near parity. The more aggressive trajectory of Fed policy had given the US a 135 bp premium as recently as mid-August. The premium has collapsed to around 45 bp, the least since mid-March. After holding above $0.9900 on Monday's test, the euro reached $1.0055 yesterday before sold in North America back down to $0.9980. Today's low has been about $0.9975, and the intraday momentum indicators suggest it could stabilize for a little. The nearby cap may be around $1.0020. With the August CPI estimate behind it, the next two key events are this Friday's US jobs report and next week's ECB meeting. Sterling was sold to new two-year lows yesterday near $1.1620 and remains pinned in the trough today. It has recorded lower highs this week, and today, for the first, time has not traded above $1.1700. However, like the euro, the intraday momentum indicators for sterling suggest some consolidation is likely in the North American morning. America Two recent business surveys have caught our attention. First, a survey of CFOs by Deloitte found that 73% regarded persistent inflation as bigger threat than a recession, with the other 27% more concerns about a recession. What is a bit surprising by this is that judging from the recent earnings many businesses have been able to lift prices to more than covering rising costs, including wages. Adjusted pre-tax profits rose 6.1% in Q2 over Q1, which had seen a 2.2% decline quarter-over-quarter. By another metric that measures pre-tax profits as a percentage of gross value added, corporate profit margins rose 15.5% in Q2, the widest in more than 70 years. Separately, and somewhat less surprising, a survey by the US-China Business Council of its 117 members found over half attributed plans to cancel or delay investment plans in China due to its Covid-related restrictions. Most said the negative effects were reversible, but 44% said it would take "years" to restore confidence. ADP launches a new methodology for its estimate of private sector employment today. In its press release, it claims the report will be more robust, using granulated data based on payrolls covering 25 mln US workers. In addition, estimate of the current month's nonfarm private sector employment change, it will also provide weekly data from the previous month by industry and business size. A new pay measure is also being introduced. ADP did not provide an estimate for July, pending this methodological change. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey of 15 economists is for a 300k increase, though the average is a bit lower at 280k. Yesterday's report on job openings (July JOLTS) was around 850k more than expected and the June series was revised higher. The Fed funds futures are pricing in about a 75% chance that the third 75 bp hike will be delivered next month. It was about a two-thirds chance before Fed Chair Powell spoke at Jackson Hole. The dramatically smaller than expected Canadian Q2 current account surplus reported yesterday (C$2.7 bln rather than the C$6.8 bln expected warns of downside risks with today's Q2 GDP report. The current account surplus in the first quarter was revised sharply as well (C$2.7 bln from C$5.0 bln). Bloomberg' survey of a dozen economist generated a median forecast of 4.4% annualized pace after 3.1% expansion in Q1. The monthly GDP figures are more troubling. The cumulative monthly increases n Q1 were 1.4%. June figures will be reported today. The median forecast calls for a 0.1% increase, which would bring the Q2 cumulative increase to 0.4%. We note that Canada's 10-year breakeven has risen from about 1.93% at the start of last week to 2.20% today. On the other hand, the five-year breakeven has eased about six basis points at the same time and is below 2.10% today. The Bank of Canada meets next week, and although the market flirted with another 100 bp increase, it appears to recognize a 75 bp move is more likely. Separately, a small and minor cabinet reshuffle is expected later today, with no policy implications.   The US dollar is trading at new highs for the month today against the Canadian dollar. Yesterday, it traded above CAD1.31 for only the third time this year but closed slightly below it. It is extending the leg up that began last week near CAD1.29 and has approached CAD1.3115. The spike high recorded in the middle of last month was near CAD1.3225. The intraday momentum indicators are stretched but the key remains the broader risk appetite (S&P 500 proxy). Initial support now may be in CAD1.3060-80 area. The greenback is trading firmly against the Mexican peso and is near a seven-day high above MXN20.22. The high set on August 19 around MXN20.2670 is the key to the immediate outlook. A move above it, could spur a move toward MXN20.35-37. But, if it holds, it may signal a consolidative phase. That said, note that the five-day moving average is poised to cross above the 20-day moving average for the first time since late July.    Disclaimer   Source: EMU August CPI at 9.1%, while the Core Rate Jumps to 4.3%
Are You Ready Australian Dollar (AUD)? Reserve Bank Of Australia Decides On The Cash Rate Today!

Are You Ready Australian Dollar (AUD)? Reserve Bank Of Australia Decides On The Cash Rate Today!

ING Economics ING Economics 06.09.2022 09:11
Reserve Bank of Australia rate action today's main focus Source: shutterstock Macro outlook Global: US markets were closed for Labor Day yesterday, though European bourses were mostly in the red and if early trading out of New Zealand is any guide, Asia Pacific markets will not open today in an ebullient mood. There is no Treasury pricing to consider today because of yesterday’s holiday. But bond futures seem to suggest some further upward creep in 10Y yields today. EURUSD is roughly unchanged from this time yesterday, though did have a look at pushing below 0.988 before recovering to sit at 0.994 currently. The AUD is looking a touch stronger at 0.6814, and Cable is also looking a bit less weak at 1.1555 as the UK takes on a new Prime Minister. The JPY lost some further ground yesterday but is looking a bit perkier in early trading today, moving down to 140.46. Asian currencies were mostly soft against the USD yesterday.  G-7 Macro: There’s not much on the G-7 Macro calendar today and the main overnight news is the token supply target cut by OPEC+ (see here for more on this) Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will decide how much to raise the cash rate today, with most analysts looking for a 50bp increase to 2.35%, though a few are forecasting only a 25bp move. Analysts have been making a lot out of some text in recent RBA statements noting that rates were not on a "preset path", though it seems a bit of a leap to view this as code for “rates will be increased at a slower pace”, which is how some are viewing it. Still, we’ll know soon enough. Philippines: Philippine August inflation is set for release today.  Market expectations point to a 6.4%YoY rise driven largely by substantial increases in the price of food, transport and utility items.  Transport groups have lobbied for a fare price increase which is expected to be granted within the week.  Meanwhile, storm damage from the recent typhoon will also likely nudge up prices for vegetables and fruit in the near term.  We expect inflation to stay elevated with the central bank likely hiking rates at each of the remaining policy meetings over the rest of the year.      What to look out for: ECB meeting Philippines CPI inflation (6 September) Australia RBA meeting (6 September) Taiwan CPI inflation (6 September) US ISM services (6 September) Australia GDP (7 September) China trade (7 September) Taiwan trade (7 September) US trade balance (7 September) Japan GDP (8 September) Australia trade balance (8 September) ECB policy meeting (8 September) US initial jobless claims (8 September) Philippines trade (9 September) China CPI inflation (9 September) US wholesale trade (9 September) Read this article on THINK TagsEmerging Markets Asia Pacific Asia Markets Asia Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Sturdy Australian Labour Market With Over 13K Full-Time Jobs, AUD/USD May Decrease Further, RBA Decides On Interest Rate On November 1st

RBA's Decision Didn't Make AUD (Australian Dollar) Increase. Cash Rate May Reach 3% By The End Of 2022

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 07.09.2022 15:17
AUD/USD has posted slight losses today, trading at 0.6726. This follows a disastrous Tuesday, when the Aussie fell 0.92%. Earlier, AUD/USD fell as low as 0.6999, its lowest level since July 14th. Australian GDP within expectations Australia’s GDP for Q2, released earlier today, has helped stabilize a wobbly Australian dollar. GDP posted a 0.9% gain, just shy of the estimate of 1.0% and above the 0.8% in Q4. Consumer spending remains robust, and the economy was supported by strong export numbers, as commodity prices remain high. The Australian dollar’s woes seem more a case of US dollar strength than AUD weakness. We are seeing global interest rate continue to head higher, which has dampened the appetite for risk-related assets, such as the Australian currency. An aggressive Federal Reserve, supported by solid US numbers, has boosted the greenback. Tuesday’s US ISM Services PMI rose to 56.9 in August, up from 56.7 in July and higher than the 55.1 estimate. The report pointed to an increase in business activity and strong consumer demand, despite high inflation and rising interest rates. The RBA delivered a fourth straight hike of 0.50% on Tuesday, but the sizeable increase failed to boost the Australian dollar, as the move had been anticipated by the markets. The Australian dollar has not been responsive to recent RBA moves, losing ground yesterday and after the July meeting. The cash rate is now at 2.35%, which is expected to hit 3% by the end of the year, with further hikes expected in 2023. Today’s move brings rates close to the neutral level of around 2.5%, which means that the RBA is likely to deliver one more 50bp hike and then scale back to 25bp increases, contingent on inflation and the strength of the labour market. AUD/USD Technical 0.6737 is a weak resistance line. Above, there is resistance at 0.6846 There is support at 0.6661 and 0.6552   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Canadian dollar steady ahead of BoC meeting - MarketPulseMarketPulse
The GBP/AUD Pair Is Still In A Bullish Condition

Australian Dollar (AUD): What Does The Employment Data Mean To Reserve Bank Of Australia?

ING Economics ING Economics 15.09.2022 12:12
A 33,500 increase in employment was very close to the consensus expectation (+35,000), though the slight uptick in the unemployment rate may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to slow to a 25bp hike at its next meeting 33,500 Employment gain From previous month As expected Not much to take away from this report With the headline employment number more or less in line with the consensus forecast, made up from a solid 58,800 increase in full time jobs, offsetting a 25,200 decline in part-time jobs, this report doesn't really signify anything for forthcoming RBA policy decisions. However, with the RBA suggesting that it is looking for excuses to slow the pace of tightening from here on, there is equally nothing here to stop them from doing that at their October meeting if nothing else comes along to upset that view.  Australian unemployment rate Turning point? Source: CEIC Unemployment rate ticks up One factor that helps the 25bp rather than 50bp view is that the unemployment rate ticked a bit higher in August, rising from 3.4% to 3.5%. The numbers of unemployed rose by 14,100 which mostly reflects an increase in those entering the labour force looking for work (possibly because it is harder to make ends meet with inflation running above 6%). So this doesn't really signify a genuine softening of the labour market. But it maybe signifies that this is coming closer.  Market reaction to the data was fairly muted, except for a temporary AUD sell-off as the figures were initially incorrectly reported as showing no employment change.  Read this article on THINK TagsReserve Bank of Australia Australian Unemployment Australian labor report Australian employment Australia Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The GBP/AUD Pair Is Still In A Bullish Condition

This One May Affect Australian Dollar (AUD)! Look At The Australian Retail Sales! What Could It Mean For Reserve Bank Of Australia?

ING Economics ING Economics 28.09.2022 11:22
Following the 1.3%MoM gain in July, the faster-than-expected 0.6%MoM August increase in retail sales throws doubt on the conjecture that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) can begin to ease back on the pace of rate increases at forthcoming meetings Australian retail sales Source: Shutterstock 0.6% August retail sales MoM% Better than expected Household sector shrugging off rate hikes If the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate tightening is slowing the economy, it isn't really evident in the latest retail sales figures for August. The headline sales number registered growth of 0.6%MoM. This was admittedly down from the super-strong 1.3% gain in July. But following such a strong July figure, more statistical pull-back might have been expected if the underlying pace of sales were indeed slowing. Instead, the 3-month annualized rate of retail sales growth is still running at more than 8%, which even allowing for re-opening effects (these should be largely if not wholly through the pipeline by now) looks inconsistent with an economy that only needs modest rate hikes from here on. That prospect of a slowdown in the pace of tightening has been fostered by some official RBA comments, though it is looking increasingly at odds with the very hawkish US Fed rhetoric, the slide in the AUD, and now, the run of domestic data. Retail sales by type (MoM%) Still running strong Australian retail sales August 22 Source: CEIC, ING What's driving sales? Indeed, even the components of the latest sales numbers don't suggest much slowdown, with sales at department stores leading the way, followed by household goods and dining out. Clothing and the miscellaneous "other" section were the only weak spots. This breakdown in no sense suggests "belt-tightening".   2Y Australian government bond yields rose on the news, but this didn't provide much help for the AUD, as the US White House appeared to rule out a plaza-style currency agreement providing further fuel for the USD against the AUD and other G-10 currencies.  Read this article on THINK TagsRetail sales Reserve Bank of Australia Australia AUD Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
It Was A Negative Close In The New York Stock Exchange For 2185 Securities

On Thursday S&P 500 (SPX) Lost 2.11%, Nasdaq Went Down By 2.84%

ING Economics ING Economics 30.09.2022 08:27
Equities and FX decouple as we end the quarter Source: shutterstock Macro outlook Global markets: The bounce didn’t last long. Both S&P500 and NASDAQ fell sharply again on Thursday, the S&P by 2.11% and the NASDAQ by 2.84%. That puts year-to-date losses at respectively 23.62% and 31.37%. And we’d be inclined to argue that we haven’t yet seen the bottom. The S&P500, for example, is sitting just around its June lows, so any break below this level sets the scene for some substantial further declines. On the positive side, equity futures are pricing in small gains at today’s open, but that's a long way from saying that stocks will rally into the weekend and the end of the quarter. UK Gilts gave back some of their gains yesterday on the Truss government’s insistence on sticking to its mini-budget, and yields have risen across the UK curve, though this doesn’t seem to have the market’s eye in the same way it did earlier this week. 2Y US Treasury yields headed up 5.8bp to 4.192% and the yield on the 10Y bond rose a similar amount to 3.786%. 10Y Bunds rose 5.8bp to 2.14%, hurt by a 10% YoY September inflation print (10.9% for the harmonized index). And while this is cementing thoughts of a 0.75% rate increase at the next ECB meeting, that seems like a lame response in a month where the price index rose by 2 percentage points. For now, currency markets seem to disagree, and the EURUSD has risen to 0.982, though this seems a little incongruous against the data backdrop. Other G-10 currencies also did better against the USD. The AUD is now back up above 65 cents, while the GBP has risen to 1.1145 – a long way from the 1.035 low of the week (and approx. last 4 decades!). Can this last? It seems a long shot as there’s plenty more bad news to be priced in. The JPY has also had a reprieve, and is back to 144.42, while the CNY led APAC’s FX gains, gaining by more than a per cent to 7.1249 onshore. G-7 Macro: Besides the unpleasant German inflation data, the macro picture was quite thin, with some marginal upward revisions to 2Q22 US GDP, and a lower than expected initial claims figure suggesting that the Fed still has its work cut out to slow the economy enough to bring inflation down. Today, we see the full European inflation picture for September, which is likely to exceed the 9.7%YoY consensus estimate. This won’t have been adjusted yet for the German figures. US Personal income and spending data will show how consumer spending held up in August together with the latest PCE inflation figures.  And we round off the week with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment (and inflation expectations) figures. China: We expect the manufacturing PMI to be under 50 as manufacturing for real estate construction will still be in monthly contraction. Furthermore, export demand is waning and that could affect manufacturing activity for holiday-season exports. However, services should continue to pick up as Covid measures become more localised. India: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) meets today to decide on rate policy and the following three factors are relevant to that decision: 1) Inflation is 7.0%, a full per cent above the top of the RBI's target range 2) it is heading in the wrong way. 3) RBI commentary has been clear about the need to focus on fighting inflation. Put that all together and it looks likely that the RBI will deliver a further 50bp of tightening today, taking the repo rate to 5.9%. Later this evening, we will also get India’s fiscal deficit figures for August. Although all major rating agencies have India’s long-term foreign credit rating at "stable', and the deficit data year-to-date seem on track to meet the government’s 6.4% (GDP) target, it wasn’t that long ago that Fitch raised their outlook from negative. The deficit numbers have been whipped around by government subsidies and attempts to limit the pass-through of high energy prices to the consumer, so these are still worth a quick look. South Korea: Industrial production dropped more than expected in August, recording a -1.8%MoM decline (vs -1.3% in July and -0.8% market consensus). Automobile production rebounded (8.8%) but the declines in semiconductors (-14.2%) and petrochemicals (-5.0%) were bigger. We believe that re-opening will support 3QGDP, but thereafter, there should be a sharp deceleration. We also now expect only a 0.1% QoQ gain in 3Q22 (vs 0.7% in 2Q). Yesterday’s business survey outcomes were also quite weak, with manufacturing sentiment rapidly deteriorating to the lowest level since October 2020. Also, today’s forward-looking construction orders data were soft, suggesting more recessionary signals in the coming quarters. Japan: Japan’s data releases surprised the market on the positive side. The jobless rate edged down to 2.5% (vs 2.6% in July), in line with the market consensus. The Jobs-to-applications ratio continued to rise (has risen for several months in a row). And industrial production in August not only recorded a third monthly rise (2.7% MoM sa), but also beat the market expectation significantly (0.2%). We will revise up third quarter GDP soon based on today’s releases. The stronger jobs market is also a good sign for wage growth together with solid production gains. However, we think it is still too early to tell because Japan is reopening at a slower pace than other Asian countries and the reopening effects are just kicking in. With growing global recession headwinds, the BoJ will likely take its time to see whether Japan can still produce solid outcomes in a sustainable way. What to look out for: US core PCE, personal spending and Michigan sentiment South Korea industrial production (30 September) Japan labor market data (30 September) China official and Caixin PMI manufacturing (30 September) India RBI meeting (30 September) Hong Kong retail sales (30 September US personal income, personal spending and core PCE (30 September) US University of Michigan sentiment (30 September) Read this article on THINK TagsEmerging Markets Asia Pacific Asia Markets Asia Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Reserve Bank of Australia went for 25bp rate hike. Fed Funds futures hint a 5% peak rate next year

Forex: Australian Dollar To US Dollar (AUD/USD) - Technical Look And Expectations - 17/10/22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.10.2022 15:22
  As of writing, AUD/USD is trading near 0.6250, just below the first notable resistance at 0.6255 (200 EMA on the 15-minute chart). Given the strong bearish momentum of the overall downward trend in AUD/USD, we can expect a rebound and a resumption of decline already near this resistance level.     If it is broken, then the next point of the upward correction will be the level of 0.6325 (through it passes the resistance level in the form of a 200-period moving average on the 1-hour chart). But even after its theoretically possible breakdown, the corrective growth of AUD/USD will be limited, at least, by the important resistance levels of 0.6545, 0.6600, 0.6620 (50 EMA on the daily chart). In the main scenario, we expect a rebound from the current levels and a resumption of the decline. More conservative AUD/USD sellers will probably decide to wait for the breakdown of the local support levels of 0.6200, 0.6170.     Support levels: 0.6200, 0.6170, 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510 Resistance levels: 0.6255, 0.6325, 0.6455, 0.6500, 0.6545, 0.6620, 0.6685 Trading Tips Sell Stop 0.6220. Sell Limit 0.6320. Stop-Loss 0.6355. Take-Profit 0.6200, 0.6170, 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510 Buy Stop 0.6355. Stop-Loss 0.6290. Take-Profit 0.6400, 0.6455, 0.6500, 0.6545, 0.6620, 0.6685   Relevance up to 12:00 2022-10-22 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/324495
The Focus Will Be On The RBA Commentary | Crude Oil Pulled Back

We're past and ahead of important economic events! This week, i.a., Reserve Bank of Australia decides on interest rate!

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.10.2022 18:38
The extremely volatile last full trading week of October ended on Friday, October 28. Meetings of the three largest world central banks (Canada, the eurozone, Japan) were held. If the decisions taken by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan on interest rates coincided with market expectations, then the Bank of Canada made an unexpected decision, surprising investors. The bank raised its interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%, although markets had expected a 75 bp hike. The decision appears to have been prompted by growing concerns about the threat of a slowdown in the economy and a deepening global recession, and disappointed market participants. Next week, market participants will focus on two main and key events: the Federal Reserve meeting and the release of the monthly report of the US Department of Labor for October. In addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England will also hold their meetings on monetary policy issues, moreover, the RBA meeting will be held on Tuesday. Ahead of this event, AUD/USD shows mixed intra-weekly dynamics, although the overall global downward trend of the pair remains in place for now.     When this article was written on Friday, AUD/USD was trading near the 0.6413 mark, falling towards the support level of 0.6382. Its breakdown would have confirmed the resumption of downward dynamics, although short positions can be opened already in the market, limiting the loss with a stop loss above 0.6480. As a result of the October meeting, the RBA raised the interest rate by 0.25%, disappointing bulls on the Australian dollar. The RBA cited weakening growth prospects for the global economy as the main reason for this decision. The decision to raise the rate by 0.25% came as a surprise to market participants who had expected a 0.50% increase. While the RBA's accompanying statement said that "the central bank remains strongly committed to bringing inflation back to its target" and "expects further interest rate hikes in the coming period", market participants viewed the decision as a mild one to further strengthen the Australian dollar. It fell sharply immediately after the announcement of the RBA's decision. In turn, at the very beginning of this week, the assistant governor of the RBA, Christopher Kent, said that "the RBA board expects further interest rate hikes in the coming period," but "the size and timing of the rate hike will depend on incoming data." Such a "vague" formulation of the thesis about the prospects for the RBA interest rate cannot serve as a basis for any significant strengthening of the AUD, while other major world central banks are aggressively raising their interest rates. Now, at Tuesday's meeting, the RBA is widely expected to raise interest rates by 0.25%. This will be the second consecutive increase of 0.25%. How market participants will react to it, while the Fed and other major world central banks continue to move with more confident steps in the cycle of tightening their monetary policies, is not difficult to guess. AUD is unlikely to strengthen much after such a decision by the RBA. Although, a lot will also depend on the accompanying statements of the bank's management. Tough rhetoric of their statements regarding future RBA interest rate hikes may support the Australian dollar. In general, as we have already noted above, the general global downward trend of the pair is still in force. Relevance up to 11:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/325640

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