Asian session

Market picture The announcement of the debt ceiling deal triggered a natural spike in interest in Bitcoin on the expectation of increased retail interest in risk assets as institutional investors in Europe and America head off for a long weekend. Bitcoin traded as high as $28.4K at the start of Monday's Asian session but fell back to $27.8K by the beginning of European trading. Meanwhile, the top cryptocurrency has been rising daily since the 25th, pushing back from support at $25.8K, near the 200-week moving average. This move looks like an exit for speculators. However, the market's attention may shift to more market-heavy issues, such as slowing economic growth and high-interest rates. The bulls are now trying to get Bitcoin back above its 50-day moving average, which would signal a return to a medium-term uptrend.   The ability to close above $28.15 at the end of the day could attract more buyers to Bitcoin, while staying lower would be a reason to sell on the upside.   News background Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero said she is ready to regulate the crypto industry with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Users of cryptocurrency exchange Tornado Cash have sued the US Treasury Department for imposing sanctions on the service, claiming that banning open-source software violates the US Constitution.ECB board member Fabio Panetta assured that the regulator would not have access to the personal data of digital euro holders (CBDC). He noted the need to balance ensuring privacy and combating money laundering and terrorist financing. High profitability enables stablecoin issuer Tether to venture into new business areas, according to the company's CTO Paolo Ardoino. Tether made a net profit of $1.48 billion in the first quarter, double that of the previous period.

Market picture Cryptocurrency market capitalisation fell 1.8% over the last 24 hours to $1.136 trillion. After failing to build on Wednesday's gains, the cryptocurrency market came under pressure during the Asian session on Wednesday morning as sellers moved into defensive assets.   Bitcoin plunged to $27K, losing more than 2.7% since the start of the day and erasing all of Sunday's gains. Technically, the selling intensified after the pair failed to break above the 50-day moving average, which turned from support to resistance in May. Market participants should now brace for another test of local support around $26K.   According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds fell by $39 million last week, the sixth consecutive week of outflows. Bitcoin investments were down $12 million, and Ethereum investments were down $6 million.   Weekly trading volumes remain low, at 58% of this year's average, which also mirrors the broader crypto market, with trading volumes at just 38% of this year's average, CoinShares noted.     New background According to Dune Analytics, the number of Bitcoin Ordinals-based tokens issued on the network has surpassed 10 million. Approximately 200,000 tokens are being issued daily, including NFTs.   US presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. reiterated his support for Bitcoin and said that the SEC should not have people who oppose cryptocurrencies.   Crypto exchange BKEX said it had suspended customer withdrawals while a police investigation into possible money laundering by several users is underway.   Major stablecoin issuer Tether announced plans to invest in mining capacity in Uruguay, South America.   Renowned cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe believes that Litecoin is gearing up for a "pre-halving rally" that will begin in early August.

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading GBP/USD The test of 1.2720 on Friday afternoon, coinciding with the rise of the MACD line from zero, prompted a buy signal that led to a price increase of around 50 pips.   Weak data on the US labor market led to a sharp rise in GBP/USD. However, this did not last long, as already during today's Asian session, the pair fell, compensating for most of Friday's growth. In addition, buyers should not expect much today because only good data on the UK housing price index and confident defense of the level of 1.2705 will there be chances of a rally. For long positions: Buy when pound hits 1.2736 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2772 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth may occur. However, when buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Pound can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.2705, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2736 and 1.2772. For short positions: Sell when pound reaches 1.2705 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2673. Pressure will increase with weak data and inactivity around 1.2705. However, when selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Pound can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.2736, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2705 and 1.2673.   What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy GBP/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell GBP/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market   Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.   And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.    

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading GBP/USD The test of 1.2720 on Friday afternoon, coinciding with the rise of the MACD line from zero, prompted a buy signal that led to a price increase of around 50 pips.     Weak data on the US labor market led to a sharp rise in GBP/USD. However, this did not last long, as already during today's Asian session, the pair fell, compensating for most of Friday's growth. In addition, buyers should not expect much today because only good data on the UK housing price index and confident defense of the level of 1.2705 will there be chances of a rally. For long positions: Buy when pound hits 1.2736 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2772 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth may occur. However, when buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Pound can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.2705, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2736 and 1.2772. For short positions: Sell when pound reaches 1.2705 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2673. Pressure will increase with weak data and inactivity around 1.2705. However, when selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Pound can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.2736, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2705 and 1.2673.   What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy GBP/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell GBP/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market   Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.    

FX Daily: Currencies starting to detach from bond dynamics Volatility in long-dated sovereign bonds has remained elevated, but that has almost only been mirrored in a weaker yen in FX since the start of the week. The currency market is starting to detach from short-term bond swings, but the dollar’s newfound resilience could still consolidate into Thursday’s US inflation numbers.   USD: Wait and see It’s been a slow start to the week in the currency market, with the dollar being mixed but generally supported yesterday and in today’s Asian session. We continue to observe rather elevated volatility in bond markets, with long-dated Treasury yields rising again: unsurprisingly, the only notable move in FX since the weekend has been another leg higher in USD/JPY. With the Bank of Japan normalisation still looking too remote to temper bearish pressure on the yen, USD/JPY is the most exposed G10 pair to the ongoing bond market instability, especially given some signs of resilience in US equities, which limited losses in high-beta currencies. The US data calendar only includes second-tier releases until Thursday’s CPI figures. Today, the key highlights are the NFIB Small Business Confidence Optimism Index – which is expected to rise very marginally from June – trade balance figures from June, and final wholesale inventory numbers. It will be interesting to hear what FOMC members Patrick Harker and Thomas Barkin say about the economy in two separate speeches today, especially following last week’s slightly weaker-than-expected headline payroll figures. With the exception of the yen, it appears that most G10 currencies are losing their direct exposure to swings in US bond yields. At this stage, it would probably take a larger swing in yields to cause a substantial spill-over into FX than it did before the US credit downgrade by Fitch. Still, we expect some consolidation of the dollar around current levels into Thursday’s inflation numbers.

GBP/USD On Monday, the British pound gained 21 pips. This morning, the pound's gains in the first hours of the Asian session alone amounted to the same amount. The price convergence with the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart has finally formed, the pound is aiming for the first target at 1.2684.         Consolidating above this level will open the target range of 1.2799-1.2814 (the peak of August 10th). The MACD line is in this range. On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is eager to leave the downtrend territory. The price is advancing towards 1.2684. The MACD line is slightly below this level, but is already starting to turn upwards. And when the price goes above the level, this will mean surpassing the MACD line, creating favorable conditions for further growth.       This evening, the US Consumer Confidence Index for August from the Conference Board is expected to fall from 117.0 to 116.0. This provides an external premise for the pound to rise.