apple stock

BoE between a rock and a hard place. 

By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank  

As widely expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its interest rates unchanged at this week's meeting and President Jerome Powell cited that the recent surge – especially in the long end of the US yield curve – helped tightening the financial conditions in the US. Powell repeated that the Fed is proceeding carefully but that they are 'not confident that inflation is on path toward 2%' target'. US policymakers redefined the US economic outlook as being 'strong', from being just 'solid'. 

In summary, the latest Fed decision was not dovish, unsurprisingly hawkish, and did not impact appetite in US bonds which got a boost from the Treasury's announcement of a slightly lower-than-expected quarterly refunding auction size for the 3, 10 and 30-year maturity bonds next week. Cherry on top, the US Treasury said that they now expect one more step up in quarterly issuances for the lon

Swissquote MarketTalk: A Look At XAUUSD, Swiss Secrets, Tesla And More

A Lot To Watch In The US, What About Big Tech Companies?

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 31.01.2022 11:11
US stocks recorded a last-minute rally on Friday, but gains remain on jeopardy as the hawkish Fed expectations and the Russia-Ukraine tensions are weighing on the risk appetite. The geopolitical tensions, in fact, push energy prices higher, further boosting the inflation fears and the Fed hawks. The consensus now is that the Fed would raise the interest rates five times this year. In this environment, US dollar is certainly a good place to park, while gold is doing surprisingly poorly despite having most factors that would normally support a better pricing on its side. In the stock markets, value stock investors are finally being praised for their patience. At today’s episode, I have an interesting comparison of Warren Buffet and Cathi Wood’s performances over the past two years! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:24 Market update 1:34 Energy prices jump on Russia-Ukraine tensions 3:10 USD consolidates gains, XAU performs surprisingly bad 3:55 Warren Buffett vs Cathie Wood 5:43 Big Tech gains at jeopardy as Fed hawks gain field 8:45 This week's economic calendar: ECB, BoE, RBA & OPEC 9:25 This week's corporate calendar: Google, Facebook & Amazon Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
Technical Analysis: Moving Averages - Did You Know This Tool?

Apple Stock News and Forecast: AAPL remains subject to geopolitical whims

FXStreet News FXStreet News 02.03.2022 16:19
Apple stock remains above its 200-day moving average as geopolitical turmoil remains. AAPL stock is unlikely to break higher until the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends. Apple is likely to fall further as no catalyst in sight and sanctions hurt all global businesses. Apple (AAPL) stock remains in recovery mode along with most US indices as last week's shock and awe sell-off remain the low mark for now. Stocks have entered a changed landscape for 2022, and the situation is worsening from both a macroeconomic and geopolitical viewpoint. Investors were just about coming to accept the inflation and interest rate environment for 2022 and had adjusted portfolios accordingly. High-risk growth stocks were avoided, and the focus returned to those stocks with strong balance sheets and low valuations. Value versus growth had already seen strong outperformance for value. Now things are worse. Sanctions will hit global growth and Europe especially hard. Energy costs are out of control, European gas prices are nearly ten times higher than a year ago. Oil prices we know all about. What we are left with then is higher inflation and now for longer likely reaching into 2024. Interest rates will have to rise, despite slowing growth, leading to stagflation. High-risk assets will struggle. Equities are viewed as a high-risk asset so expect bond inflows to outweigh equity fund inflows for the remainder of this crisis and beyond. Likely sector winners in the short term are defense stocks and oil stocks should have earnings well underpinned now for the remainder of the year. Apple (AAPL) stock is a harder one to quantify in this new environment. The stock certainly has defensive qualities, it has piles of cash which it can use for dividends, buybacks, or acquisitions. It has some pricing power that it can pass on to customers. However, rising commodity prices lead to higher semiconductor prices. Higher energy costs lead to higher shipping costs for inputs and outputs. Rising inflation and possible slowing growth will lead customers to scale back on purchases of luxury goods. Sanctions will hit globalized businesses. Apple Stock News With perfect timing, the EU has just come out and said EU countries must turn off the stimulus tap sharply and take a neutral fiscal stance. This means less free money and a focus on debt reduction, as well as echoes of the dreaded tight monetary policy that prevailed after the Great Financial Crash. This will mean less consumer spending. Apple Stock Forecast We cannot avoid the overall bearish macro and geopolitical background. We would rate Apple as outperforming, but that is an outperform in a bearish market. We note the potential and hope for a swift end to the conflict as Russia and Ukraine meet again for talks. This will lead to a sharp relief rally, so short-term traders take note. The risk-reward is probably skewed to the upside. Wednesday is likely to see a slow gradual move lower or a swift rally on positive developments. Longer-term though the situation is clouded. Unless the conflict ends soon and sanctions are lifted quickly, we fail to see how equities can return to any form of bullishness. The situation from one month ago has not changed apart from lower economic growth. For now, Apple has found support at the 200-day moving average, which is set at $152 today. This is massive support. Break that and it is likely onto $138. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergernce (MACD) remain bearish, confirming the price move. Apple stock chart, daily
Fed Expectations Amid Mixed Data: Wishful Thinking or Practical Pause?

Fluctuations Of Crowdstrike, Apple (APPL) To Rise Again, Elon Musk Makes Other Twitter Shareholder Angry

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 13.04.2022 11:25
Equities 2022-04-13 05:30 6 minutes to read Summary:   Crowdstrike shares surge putting cybersecurity in the limelight. Apple and BHP poised to announce share buy backs, which will support further share price growth. Oil rocks back over US$100 lifting oil stocks in New York and Australia. A Twitter shareholder sues Elon Musk for allegedly committing fraud. Iron ore and aluminium are back in vouge, boosting Rio Tinto shares. US defaults to double according to S&P Global. New Zealand makes its biggest increase in interest rates in 22-years. Co-written by Market Strategists Jessica Amir in Australia, Redmond Wong in Hong Kong. What’s happening in equites that you need to know? US stocks fell for the third day. The S&P 500 (US500.I) and the Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) lost 0.3%. As always, there were bright sparks at the stock level. The world’s biggest cybersecurity company, Crowdstrike (CRWD) rose 3.2% to US$223.51 (its highest level since November last year), after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to a buy. We’ve previously mentioned Crowdstrike as a stock to watch. It makes 94% of its money from subscriptions, and we like businesses like these, given they are set to benefit from elevated demand to address cyberattack fears. The market also likes Crowdstrike with 93% of analysts rating the stock as a BUY. Goldman Sachs expects Crowdstrike’s shares to rise to $285 in a year. Also in MegaCaps, Apple (AAPL) shares jumped over 1% after whispers that Apple could announce a buyback of US$80-$90 billion (and buy backs support share price growth). Hang Seng Index (HSI.I) and CSI300 (000300.I) are little changed. Hang Seng Tech (HSTECH.I) was up 0.6%.  Energy and mining stocks outperformed.  Zijin Mining (02899) surged 7%.  Jiangxi Copper (00358), China Molybdenum (03993), MMG (0128) rose more than 5%.  CNOOC (00883) rallied 4% and China Coal was up from the 6%.  In A shares, logistics names outperformed while real estates, airlines, online entertainment led declines.  Twitter (TWTR) shareholders sue Elon Musk (TSLA CEO). A Twitter, shareholder sued Elon Musk for allegedly committing fraud by delaying the disclosure of his ownership of more than 5% of Twitter, so Musk could buy more shares at a cheaper price. The investor said Musk should  have disclosed his holding by March 24, instead of April 1. Twitter shares rose 27%, from $39.31 on April 1, to $49.97 on April 4. Twitter shareholder, Marc Bain Rasella is also looking to represent a class of investors who sold Twitter shares from March 24 to April 1. Crude oil (OILUKJUN22 & OILUSMAY22) jumps 6% to $101, ... ...as OPEC said the obvious, that’s it’s impossible to replace supply losses from Russia, while China also hints of restrictions easing. This supports gains in oil stocks in the US overnight and in Australia today.  The Australia share market more (ASX200) rose 0.2% by 1pm local time with energy and mining stocks fueling the market higher. Also of note, Rio Tinto (RIO) rose 2.2% after the aluminium and iron ore price extended their rebound. Both prices are important to Rio as it makes 58% of its revenue from iron ore and 22% from aluminium . Also consider demand for aluminium  is expected to grow with company’s like Apple and Nestle's Nespresso to use more of the material to reduce CO2 emissions. Iron ore (SCOA) rebounded yesterday rising 2.5%, but today it’s about 0.9% lower, but holds 8-month highs, at US$154.25. It comes as China again pledged to stabilise its economy and this brightened the outlook for steelmaking ingredient. BHP (BHP) shares are holding at $51.71, and remain in their long term uptrend. So it's worth keeping an eye on BHP. BHP is also touted to annouce a record profit this year and a share buy back, which also supports share price growth. What you need to consider US defaults to double according to S&P Global.  S&P Global Rating anticipates the US’s default rate will swell from the current 1.5%, to 3% by year-end, amid financial conditions tightening. In China, the S&P Global Ratings expects more property developer defaults, with $18 billion in maturing debt and the likelihood of home sales falling 15-20%. Inflation is uncomfortably high.  March CPI hit 8.5% year-on-year. The hottest inflation since 1981. Core CPI moderated a bit, mostly due to a cooling of oil prices, and rose 6.5%. This is still the highest rate since 1982. The largest prices rises were in; fuel oil (70%), gas (48%), used cars (35%), hotels (29%), airfares (24%) and utility gas (22%) on a year on year basis. See the full list here (scrolling to pdf page 9). Simply this tells us, the US Federal Reserve is behind in fighting inflation, so expect a 0.5% interest rate hike at the May FOMC meeting, with rates to hit 2.6% at the end the year. In RMB terms, March China exports rose 12.9% while imports fell 1.7%.  In USD terms, March exports climbed 14.7% from a year ago and imports declined 0.1%. Trade surplus increased to USD47.4 billion (vs consensus $21.7bln, Feb $30.6bln). New Zealand makes its biggest increase in interest rates in 22-years,  while also announcing quarantine free travel. The RBNZ increased interest rates by 0.5% to 1.5%. The surprise caused the New Zealand stock market to fall 0.4% with their tech stocks falling 1.4%. However, as NZ announced quarantine-free travel, the travel industry got a kick, Auckland International Airport (AIA) shares rose 1.1% higher. Trading ideas to consider Aussie dollar and Kiwi ‘up and at em’, amid travel boost.  The Australian dollar (AUDUSD) is back in vogue, rising for the second day, after Australian business confidence rose to its highest level in 5 months. While the NZ dollar (NZDUSD) also rallied for the second day, heading toward 0.69 US. It’s worth watching these two currencies as travel takes off as well between the two nations. Travel stocks.  Air stocks like Air New Zealand (AIZ) and Auckland International Airport (AIA), and Qantas (QAN), Singapore Airlines (SIAL), China Eastern Airlines (CEA) could be worth watching as they have not recovered from the covid falls in 2020. If China restrictions ease and tourism reopens, it’s worth keeping these on your radar. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast 
Bank of England's Rate Dilemma: A September Hike and the Uncertain Path Ahead

Wall Street tumbled

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 06.05.2022 10:53
Stock markets saw strong declines the day after the Fed decision as investors may have concluded that the Fed will nonetheless fight inflation in a determined manner with the so-called wealth effect at its disposal.   Yesterday's sell-off on Wall Street could have been very impressive, as the indices fell at a rate we haven't seen in two years, mainly due to technology companies. The Dow index lost more than 1,000 points and the Nasdaq Composite fell nearly 5 percent. - Both indexes posted their worst one-day declines since 2020. The S&P 500 Index also fell 3.56 percent, its second-worst day this year. Thursday's session erased Wednesday's strong gains after the Federal Reserve meeting. Technology stocks suffered the most: Tesla (-8.3 percent), Apple (-5.6 percent), Amazon (-7.6 percent), AMD (-5.6 percent) and Microsoft (-4.4 percent), where the outlook for earnings momentum may not be the best for the next few quarters.   The sharp decline in stocks and entire indexes may also be part of the fight against inflation through the so-called wealth effect. Americans, more than half of whom may have exposure to the stock market, may consume less as their savings melt down in the stock market. Thus, this can have a deflationary effect by reducing demand pressures, which appears to be an additional mechanism for fighting inflation. Previously, with the wealth effect, central banks may want to drive current consumption, because it is different to spend income when the value of savings rises rapidly and when it falls rapidly, even though current income is not affected.   Returning to the markets, one also can't help but notice that it wasn't just stocks that were cheapening. Bond and cryptocurrency prices also fell. The yield on 10-year US bonds beat the 3 percent level, and BTC fell below $36,000 at one point. It seems that once again capital was returning to the USD, as its index approached the level of 104 points, the highest since 2002. Nervousness in the markets, therefore, seems to persist, and this will be compounded by today's publication of data from the US labor market at 14:30. It seems that the times when bad data was good for the markets, as they waited for the Fed to help, are over. Now, bad data can be perceived negatively, and good data positively. The consensus is for a reading of 385k. What will be the NFP? That is what we will find out in a few hours and could be the event of the day.   Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Crypto Crash Shocked Many, The Most Sensational Bit Was The Terra (LUNA) Plunge. Is (USD) US Dollar's Rally About To End? BP Has Decreased Slightly, So Does GBP/USD. This Week Has Been Full Of Events | Swissquote

Crypto Crash Shocked Many, The Most Sensational Bit Was The Terra (LUNA) Plunge. Is (USD) US Dollar's Rally About To End? BP Has Decreased Slightly, So Does GBP/USD. This Week Has Been Full Of Events | Swissquote

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 13.05.2022 10:35
The dust seems to be settling in cryptocurrencies. Terra and Luna are now worth almost nothing but Bitcoin returned past the $30K, which is a sign that the confidence in the broader sector may have not been damaged as much as we first feared. European stocks opened in the green and US futures are pointing to the upside, yet volatility remains high, warnings that the wind could change direction rapidly, and the high volatility environment is more favourable for further losses than sustainable gains. European gas futures gained another 13% yesterday, and the pressure on energy prices remain clearly tilted to the upside   On the geopolitical front, the Europeans are going around their own sanctions against Russia by opening accounts with Gazprom bank to pay the Russian gas in exchange of rubles (!!), but the latest news suggest that Russia is now cutting the German gas as a retaliation to its sanctions. Of course, the Europeans have been quite bad in this poker game - they showed too openly how scared they were to lose the Russian gas that now, Russia is gaining the upper hand. European gas futures gained another 13% yesterday, and the pressure on energy prices remain clearly tilted to the upside. Saudi Aramco has surpassed Apple in terms of market capitalization this week, to become the world’s most valuable company, and the US dollar index extended gains to a fresh 20-year high. Everyone is now wondering when the dollar rally will end! Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM   Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:32 The dust settles in cryptocurrencies 2:22 Market update 3:13 Energy remains upbeat... 4:21 ... and Aramco is now the world's biggest compagny 5:00 High vol hints at further headache 6:34 Meme pop up 7:28 Dollar extends gains, raising bets that it's soon time for correction! Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
Apple Stock Price (APPL) May Be Fluctuating Next Week As iPhone 14 Is Said To Be Revealed

Apple Stock Price (APPL) May Be Fluctuating Next Week As iPhone 14 Is Said To Be Revealed

FXStreet News FXStreet News 01.09.2022 16:33
AAPL stock falls again on Wednesday as the sell-off continues. Equities remain under pressure ahead of the employment report on Friday. AAPL stock also waiting for next week's iPhone 14 release details. Apple (AAPL) stock continued its recent run of poor form as the stock once again closed lower on Wednesday. Apple has now registered three straight days of losses as equity markets come to terms with Fed Chair Jerome Powell utilizing himself last week. The doveish tilt that the market seemed to imply was firmly rebutted by Powell, and the equity market has been under continued selling pressure ever since. Also read: Apple Stock Deep Dive: AAPL price target at $100 on falling 2023 revenues Apple stock news Apple investors are now looking to next week for a catalyst to stem recent losses. September 7 is when most observers expect the iPhone 14 to be released. Details around pricing will be the key aspect, and as ever Wall Street analysts have been coming out with more and more bullish prospects. The latest from Bank of America says a price hike for the iPhone 14 over the iPhone 13 could see a boost to earnings in the region of $0.10 to $0.20 on EPS. It seems demand for iPhones will remain inelastic in the eyes of Wall Street, while clearly, the consumer looks to be shifting to lower-cost goods from what we have seen recently from retailers. iPhones are a luxury good and should see a slowdown in demand based on price hikes and inflationary trends. Margins will come under pressure from rising input costs, and the situation in China looks increasingly bearish. The property sector is beginning to falter alarmingly. The only Apple bullish caveat to add is the potential for massive monetary easing from China. We saw how the loose US policy juiced financial assets during the pandemic, and China may embark on its own financial juicing if the economy continues to decline. We do not think this will be enough to stem earnings compression for Apple though. The strong US dollar is another headwind for a firm that does business globally but reports in dollars. Apple stock forecast Enough of the long-term prognosis. How are we shaping up for some swing trading? Ok, first take a look at the AAPL stock daily chart. The downtrend continues with failure at the 200-day moving average, a continued sell-off from the overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) and now support from the 50-day moving average. Below $171 looks bearish. AAPL daily chart The AAPL stock 15-minute chart below shows the areas of stability and high volume. Current levels around $158 are seeing stabilization. A move above $162 or below $156 will see further buying or selling pressure, so this range is key to playing a breakout scenario. AAPL 15-minute
Construction Activity in Poland Contracts in May: Focus on Building Decline and Infrastructure Investment

Fed's Jerome Powell Speaks On Thursday, Apple Presents iPhone 14 Soon! Wow! There Are A Lot Of Events Next Week!

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 02.09.2022 22:09
US The countdown to the September 13 inflation report begins as investors fixate over a wrath of Fed speak, with special attention going towards Chair Powell’s Thursday discussion on monetary policy. It is a slow start to the trading week as US markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. Tuesday contains the release of the August ISM services index. Service sector activity is expected to show a modest decline but remain in expansion territory. US trade data will be released on Wednesday, but most of the attention will fall on Lael Brainard’s speech on the economic outlook and the release of the Fed’s Beige Book. Michael Barr will also speak on financial system fairness.  Powell’s speech on Thursday could be massive as it will be his first time speaking since the Jackson Hole Symposium.  Wall Street is keeping a close eye on initial jobless claims as we still have yet to see any signs of trouble with the labor market as layoffs remain low.  Friday’s Fed speak contains appearances by Charles Evans and Christopher Waller.   Earnings season is finishing up, but stocks will definitely remain in focus as more investors are becoming bearish.  Apple’s launch event could be huge as they will unveil the iPhone 14 lineup and the next round of smartwatches.    EU  There’s no doubt about what the focus next week will be; the only question on everyone’s mind is will it be 50 basis points or 75? Markets are increasingly favouring the latter despite the ECB previously hinting at the former. That said, prior to the July meeting they effectively told everyone the first hike would be 25 basis points before opting for 50 so we can probably take things with a pinch of salt for now. Other than that, there’s a selection of tier two and three data including final services PMIs, retail sales and revised GDP. UK  The UK is heading for a recession, one the Bank of England has seen coming for a long time. When it released its forecasts in August, they looked quite shocking. Since then, expectations have lowered further which will make the Monetary Policy Report Hearing on Wednesday all the more interesting. That aside, we’ll hear from Catherine Mann on Monday and then it’s mostly tier two and three data including final services PMI, construction PMI and consumer inflation expectations. Russia Swift action by the CBR after the invasion meant that not only is inflation not the problem many expected it to be, but the central bank has actually been able to cut interest rates below where they were before in order to try and support the economy. CPI data next week could tell us how much further room the central bank has to cut and ease pressure on the currency. South Africa A relatively quiet week with GDP data on Tuesday the only major release. Regardless of the number, a large rate hike, perhaps 75 basis points, is likely on the cards in a few weeks. Turkey Inflation is expected to surpass 80% shortly after the CBRT decided to continue its easing cycle with a 1% rate cut to 13%. With the central bank refusing to accept responsibility for soaring inflation, the sky’s the limit. Switzerland Data last week showed inflation accelerating faster than expected, increasing pressure on the SNB to hike more forcefully. Barring an inter-meeting hike, the focus next week will be on the GDP and unemployment data. China This will be a busy week in China as investors keep a close eye on the Chengdu shutdowns and a wrath of economic data that could confirm the trend of weakening economic activity.  FX traders are also closely monitoring the yuan and the possible breach of the 7-handle.  China’s trade data could provide more information on how quickly demand is weakening. Both imports and exports are expected to soften, while government stimulus should provide a boost for aggregate social financing.   India Next week brings the services PMI reading for August. Strong economic data releases will allow the RBI to hike rates even further.     Australia & New Zealand The greenback’s relentless rally has taken the Australian dollar and kiwi to seven-week lows. The global bond market selloff is being led by a surge in Treasury yields and that’s kept the interest rate differential widely in the greenback’s favour. This week a wrath of economic releases will take a backseat to the RBA rate decision. The RBA may downshift to a slower pace of tightening with only a 25 basis point rate increase.  The bank has raised rates by 175 basis points over the last four meetings, but given the grim outlook, a smaller rate hike could be justified. At the beginning of the week, Australia will release services PMI data, inflation readings, ANZ job advertisements, and current account data.  Second quarter GDP is expected to show a slight improvement and will be released after the RBA decision.   Economic releases and speeches will be limited for New Zealand.  RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk will speak on Wednesday. The ANZ commodity price index for August will be released on Monday.  A few other third-tier economic releases will also come out in the latter part of the week.     Japan The divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the Bank of Japan may continue to drive the yen’s depreciation against the dollar.  The Japanese yen has been struggling as central banks globally remain very hawkish in fighting inflation.  The BOJ may need a slight change to their policy which could eventually lead to the abandoning of Yield Curve Control (YCC), but that would require a major reversal of BOJ Gov Kuroda’s decade-long stance of super loose policy.   Several important economic indicators will be released over the next week including the services PMI, household spending, the final reading of second-quarter GDP, current account, bank lending, and the eco watchers survey.   Singapore There are no major data or risk events in Singapore next week. The Singapore dollar is gaining a lot of attention on Wall Street as many big banks anticipate that Singapore’s central bank (MAS) will extend policy tightening.   Economic Calendar Saturday, Sept. 3 Economic Events Global energy crisis in focus as the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline is scheduled to reopen after Russia’s unscheduled maintenance Sunday, Sept. 4 No major economic events scheduled Monday, Sept. 5 Economic Data/Events US markets closed for Labor Day New UK PM is announced Thailand CPI  Singapore global PMI, retail sales India services PMI Australia inflation gauge, job advertisements, inventories, services PMI China Caixin services PMI Eurozone retail sales, services PMI Japan PMI New Zealand commodity prices Switzerland GDP Taiwan foreign reserves OPEC+ meeting on output Ukrainian PM Shmyhal attends the EU-Ukraine Association Council meeting in Brussels BOE Monetary Policy Committee member Mann speaks UK Finance publishes its quarterly household finance review of activity Tuesday, Sept. 6 Economic Data/Events RBA rate decision: Expected to raise interest rates by 50bp to 2.35% Australia BoP Germany factory orders Japan household spending Mexico international reserves South Africa GDP US primary elections scheduled in Massachusetts Wednesday, Sept. 7 Economic Data/Events US trade Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr speaks at an event hosted by the Brookings Institution Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks on Market News International webcast The Fed releases its Beige Book of regional economic activity Eurozone GDP Australia GDP, foreign reserves Canada rate decision: Expected to raise interest rates by 75bps to 3.25% Poland rate decision: Expected to raise interest rates by 25bps to 6.75% Germany industrial production China trade, foreign reserves Singapore reserves Japan leading index, coincident index Apple event, dubbed “Far Out” is expected to feature new iPhones and Apple watches BOE Governor Bailey appears before the Treasury Committee Thursday, Sept. 8 Economic Data/Events ECB rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 50bps to 1.00% US initial jobless claims Fed’s Powell speaks at Cato Institute Mexico CPI  Australia trade France trade Japan GDP, BoP New Zealand manufacturing activity South Africa current account, manufacturing production Thailand consumer confidence Chicago Fed President Evans President speak at College of DuPage economic forum Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Kashkari speaks at the “Toward an Inclusive Recovery” virtual event RBA Governor Lowe speaks at the annual Anika Foundation lunch in Sydney EIA crude oil inventory report Friday, Sept. 9 Economic Data/Events US wholesale inventories Russia CPI, GDP  France industrial production Mexico industrial production Canada unemployment China CPI, PPI, aggregate financing, money supply, new yuan loans Japan money stock New Zealand truckometer heavy traffic index, card spending Thailand foreign reserves, forward contracts EU energy ministers extraordinary meeting to tackle energy crisis in Brussels President Biden travels to the new Intel facility in Ohio to discuss the Chips Act Sovereign Rating Updates Finland (Fitch) Netherlands (Fitch) Norway (S&P) Portugal (S&P) Ukraine (S&P) This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Week Ahead - Rate Hikes Keep Coming - MarketPulseMarketPulse
The Current War Between China And The United States Over Semiconductor Chips Is Gaining Momentum

Tech Stocks: Apple Stock Price (APPL) - Bulls May Reach Almost $190!

Jing Ren Jing Ren 05.09.2022 12:55
  AAPL (Apple Stock): Wave ⑤ is the final leg in a large cycle impulse a. As in the previous review, which was a few weeks ago, AAPL suggests the development of the primary fifth wave, taking the form of an ending diagonal (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5) of the intermediate degree. Wave ⑤ is the final leg in a large cycle impulse a. Most likely, the market has completed the construction of an intermediate correction (4) in the form of a minor triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z. Thus, now the price is moving up, in the intermediate wave (5). It is assumed that wave (5) will take the form of a standard zigzag A-B-C, as shown on the chart, where wave A is a minute impulse. It is possible that the bulls in wave (5) will go to 189.34. At that level, wave (5) will be equal to wave (3). Alternative Scenario An alternative scenario assumes that the cycle wave a is fully completed. Thus, in the last section of the chart, we see a downward corrective movement of the stock price in a cycle wave b, which may take the form of a double zigzag â“Œ-Ⓧ-â“Ž of the primary degree. It seems that the first two primary sub-waves â“Œ-Ⓧ have already been formed. There is a high probability that the bears in the final sub-wave â“Ž, in the form of an intermediate simple zigzag, will be able to bring the market to 118.80. At that level, primary wave â“Ž will be at 100% of wave â“Œ. We will add this pair on our watchlist.
Apple's Stock Price Reaction To The Release Of New Products

Apple Stock Price Plunged On Friday! When Is The iPhone 14 Coming Out? iPhone 14 Is Expected To Be Announced Next Week!

FXStreet News FXStreet News 30.08.2022 02:25
AAPL stock falls nearly 4% Friday on global equity sell-off. Jackson Hole hawkish tilt behind sell-off. Apple sends out invites for an event on September 7. Apple (AAPL) stock fell sharply on Friday in line with a global rout in equities. The strongly worded hawkish missive from Fed Chair Powell did the trick and sent equity markets into a risk-off tailspin. Not just equity markets, but all risk assets took a hit as the Nasdaq was the worst performer. Now over the weekend Bitcoin cracked below $20,000. Apple stock news Some conflicting positive and negative news for Apple has appeared over the past few sessions. Susquehanna was quite bullish last week in estimating iPhone 13 production would rise to 100 million from a previous 88 million. Overall Susquehanna looks for about an 8% sales growth versus last year for the iPhone. Meanwhile, Politico reported late last week that the DOJ is in the early stages of making an antitrust complaint against Apple and could bring a lawsuit as early as this year. Finally, September 7 looks like the launch date for the new iPhone 14. Reports claim Apple has sent out media invitations to an event on September 7, which it is widely assumed will be the product launch announcement. Apple stock forecast Equity markets look likely to be in for a tough Autumn after Powell carefully scripted the narrative on Friday. Remember, he had most of the summer to plan out what he wanted to say. So he knew the importance of citing Vockler, and he knew what he wanted to achieve when he used words like "pain" and "below trend growth". The plan was well thought out. He wants equity markets lower to hit demand and so bring inflation down. Whatever Apple does may struggle to overcome such a challenging macro backdrop. Apple does remain above its 200-day moving average but has failed at the trend line and to test previous highs above $179. First, we have a failure, but we need confirmation of a bearish trend now. That will come with a break of the 200-day moving average. Once that is in place, then the target needs to be a break of $129, the June lows. That is needed to maintain food for the bears. September is historically not a great one for Apple, and interestingly neither are product launches much of a catalyst for the share price. Apple stock chart, daily
It's Time To Meet iPhone 14! Apple Stock Price May Fluctuate Today!

It's Time To Meet iPhone 14! Apple Stock Price May Fluctuate Today!

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 07.09.2022 15:43
The three major US indices fell on Tuesday, the US yields spiked, and the dollar extended rally, as Americans returned from their Labor Day break. Europe opened in the negative. The rising yields helped the US dollar extend rally, of course. The US dollar index is now above the 110 mark; the USDJPY spiked to 144, the EURUSD slipped below the 0.99 mark, the pound failed to hold the 1.15 support, and gold is now below the $1700 level, again. Bitcoin on the other hand accelerated the selloff, and is now below the $19K mark, as the bears are eyeing the June support of around $17500. The stronger dollar is a growing headache, and we want to believe that the USD rally cannot continue forever, but if history is any guide, the US dollar could strengthen way more than now. If we go back to 80’s, when Volcker was hiking the interest rates at great speed to tame inflation, the US dollar also got very VERY strong. And unfortunately, other central banks’ hawkishness doesn’t tame the dollar appetite. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to hike ‘big’ for the 4th consecutive meeting today, and the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise its rates by 75bp tomorrow. But the euro looks bad, and the Loonie doesn’t look any better. In equities, everyone in Europe talks about the upcoming Porsche IPO, while Apple fans are holding their breath to find out the new iPhone14! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:22 Equities down, US yields & USD up 2:42 How far could the US dollar rally extend? 5:38 BoC, ECB to hike rates 6:28 US crude tests important support 7:05 Porsche will go public soon! 8:25 Apple reveals new iPhone today! Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #USD #rally #BoC #ECB #rate #hike #USD #EUR #GBP #JPY #CAD #Gold #XAU #Bitcoin #energy #crisis #crude #oil #Porsche #IPO #Apple #iphone14 #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH  
Apple's Stock Price Reaction To The Release Of New Products

Apple's Stock Price Reaction To The Release Of New Products

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 08.09.2022 16:02
On Wednesday, September 7, Apple's long-awaited event took place, at which new versions of the Cupertino company's products were presented. How did the company's US-listed shares react to the event? Apple Inc. unveiled the new iPhone 14, which has so-called safety features as standard. These include the ability to detect collisions and emergency SOS sending via satellite - a feature that allows users to send text messages in an emergency without access to cellular services. In addition, on Wednesday was the launch of the new AirPods Pro and Apple Watches. Apple's share price gained 1 percent on Wednesday, closing at $155.96. Better than the company itself, however, seemed to be the suppliers of components for the new products. Shares of Skyworks and Texas Instruments rose 1.7 percent, followed by Qualcomm, up 1.5 percent, and Qorvo, up 1.4 percent at the close of yesterday's session. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Apple CFD, D1 Apple stock price in recent times Apple's share price, after peaking in January 2022 in the area of $182, has retreated to the vicinity of $130 in early June. Currently, the share price seems to be in the middle of its annual fluctuation range, at $155. This gives the company a capitalization of $2.5 trillion, making it the largest in the world. In turn, the price-to-earnings ratio for Apple is 25, making it one of the largest in the last decade. In December 2020, this popular valuation ratio reached 35.40, while Apple's revenue for the quarter ended June 30, 2022 was $82.959 billion, up 1.87 percent from a year earlier. And Apple's revenue for the twelve months ended June 30, 2022 was $387.542 billion, up 11.63 percent from a year earlier. What is the outlook for Apple's stock price? According to the MarketScreener portal collecting recommendations from Wall Street analysts, the company has 26 buy recommendations, eight hold recommendations and zero sell recommendations. Institutions pointing to buy Apple shares include Credit Suisse with a target price of $201 and JP Morgan with a target price of $200. The average target price is $181.50, while the so-called Street High, or highest recommendation on Wall Street, is $220, and the Street Low is $130, according to Market Screener data. Source: Conotoxia MT5, MarketScreener - lowest, average and highest target price for Apple shares.   Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The Japanese Yen Retreats as USD/JPY Gains Momentum

Apple Stock Price Skyrockets! iPhone 14 Is Said To Be The Rocket Propeller!

FXStreet News FXStreet News 13.09.2022 16:08
Apple stock soars as new iPhone 14 boosts demand for the stock. iPhone 14 sales are reportedly strong despite some critics. Apple stock now soaring to near all-time highs. Apple (AAPL) stock began the week strongly when it dragged the main indices higher as the tech and overall market leader powered ahead by nearly 4%. By the close Apple reached $163.43, having briefly traded above $164 earlier on Tuesday. Apple stock news The stock was pushed higher on the back of a positive note from noted Apple analyst Dan Ives at Wedbush. We should also note he is largely bullish on Apple, which has been the consistently correct call. In a note, to the client, Ives said demand is solid and ahead of the iPhone 13. Also, customers appear to be going for the more expensive models – the iPhone Pro and Max models. Higher prices mean higher margins for Apple. "We expect this heavy Pro/Pro Max mix to continue with China also a major sway factor as more consumers in this key region head to the Pro model," Ives added. This will come as welcome news as some people have been openly stating that the new iPhone 14 does not have enough features to differentiate it from the iPhone 13 and so sway customers to switch. Yahoo Entertainment reported on a cheeky meme from Steve Jobs's daughter Eve. Apple stock forecast Regular readers will notice from the lack of a disclaimer at the bottom of this page that I have cut my short position. I did this last week thankfully before the rally got going. My take is more a macro view than stock specific. I cannot see the equity market making new lows now, and this rally looks set up to continue. CPI should decline when it is released today. Oil and commodity prices are much lower. That will further fuel the Fed pivot and soft landing theory, and so equities should keep rallying. It will take a few months of CPI releases before people realize this is not going to drop enough for the Fed to pivot. Apple has performed very nicely from a technical perspective of late. The strong summer rally saw a near-perfect 50% Fibonacci retracement before bouncing above the 50-day and now 200-day moving averages. The next target is now $171.40 to fill the gap. The bullish pivot is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 50-day moving average at $158.32. Apple stock daily
The Current War Between China And The United States Over Semiconductor Chips Is Gaining Momentum

How Did The US Inflation Print Affect Tech Stocks? Check Apple Stock, Amazon And Other Companies' Reaction

FXStreet News FXStreet News 14.09.2022 16:41
META stock falls over 9% on Tuesday in a market meltdown. Nasdaq is down 5%, and S&P 500 is down 4% by comparison. Meta Platforms underperforms markedly versus main indices. Meta Platforms (META) stock fell sharply on Tuesday as the market digested the US CPI print. A higher than expected number led to a sharp sell-off in equities with all the main indices closing sharply lower. However, tech took the biggest brunt of the selling with Apple and Alphabet down 6%, amazon down 7%, and Meta Platforms down a whopping 9%. Meta Platforms stock news Why the big divergence from big tech? Usually, these are seen as haven plays. All are supposed to be cash generative. The problem is big tech is generally seen as having the most to lose from higher interest rates. This may be true for some but not all. The higher the growth rate of a stock, then the bigger effect a change in interest rates has on its performance. That is why FAANG was such an outsized performer during the Fed juiced says of monetary stimulus post-pandemic. Higher growth rates get discounted by the prevailing rate of interest. If those interest rates are forecast to rise, then the present value calculation gets reduced. Adding to tech pressure and especially for the aforementioned companies is the strength of the US dollar. These are global companies, many of whom generate more than half of their revenues in overseas currencies. When that overseas currency depreciates (think euro, yen, GBP, etc.), then all of a sudden those foreign revenues are worth less in dollar terms. This affects revenues and leads to the hilarious lines we see in corporate earnings reports – "in constant currency". When are currencies ever constant? Adding to the sentiment of Meta stock this morning is news that South Korea has fined it and Alphabet (GOOGL) over violation of privacy laws, according to Reuters. Meta Platforms stock forecast META is just on massive support at around $154. Breaking this, the next level is the pandemic low at $137. The double top at $184 keeps a lid on bulls, and only a break there begins to look interesting for the bearish narrative to end. META stock chart, daily
The Current War Between China And The United States Over Semiconductor Chips Is Gaining Momentum

Could AAPL Hit $100? Tech Stocks: Apple Stock Price

FXStreet News FXStreet News 28.09.2022 15:33
Apple stock closed higher on Tuesday as markets gave up morning gains. AAPL looked to be forming a bottom. Initial reports from iPhone 14 orders looked strong. Apple (AAPL) stock looks to open lower on Wednesday as reports surface over production of the new iPhone 14. Hopes had been high that the new iPhone would provide a stimulus going into Q3 earnings, but now it appears that may not follow through. Apple stock news We hear reports from Bloomberg this morning that Apple has told suppliers not to try and increase production of the iPhone 14. Now it looks like an additional 5 to 6 million units will not be pushed ahead, and instead flat production of 90 million units seems more likely. Earlier reports had been positive with talk of strong preorders. There were also reports that orders were skewed to higher cost, higher margin models that would have had a positive flow straight down to Apple's bottom line. Now, this report puts that theory into question. As a reminder, we remain with our 12-month price target of $100 for Apple based on this very issue: lower margins and lower demand. Our key point from that deep dive was: "The tech giant faces supply chain headwinds, margin shrinkage and demand destruction in 2023." Apple stock forecast Apple stock looks set to open substantially lower on Wednesday, currently indicating below $147. This level becomes key. $147.25 is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the June lows at $129.04 to the high in August at $176.15. Holding this level is key. A break opens the door to testing the June lows and would seem more likely on a break. Holding could at least allow some calm, and investors would then likely wait for clarification from Apple's earnings on October 26. Earnings are historical, but it will be more important to hear from Apple how they are dealing with the surging US dollar and if they do indeed see a curtailing of demand. This move should also see the bearish divergence from the Relative Strength Index (RSI) come to an end. AAPL 1-day chart
European Markets Face Headwinds Amid Rising Yields and Inflation Concerns

Apple's (AAPL) Changes In Its iOS Expected To Affect Meta (FB) Revenues

ING Economics ING Economics 10.10.2022 14:33
Social media companies have suffered heavily in the recent stock rout. Recent revenue trends contribute to this. Some companies will be impacted by declining advertising revenues more than others, caused by changing policies around the use of cookies The Nasdaq index, which is dominated by technology companies, has lost about -27% of its value over a year Equity returns of social media companies have been dreadful lately The technology sector is not immune to the severe economic disruption caused by the war in Ukraine and rising energy prices. The Nasdaq index, which is dominated by technology companies, has lost about 27% of its value over a year. This loss is larger than the Dow Jones index which is traditionally more focused on industrial companies. The Dow Jones index has lost 15% of its value in a year. However, there are many underlying differences within the technology sectors, pointing to a divergent impact. Social media companies rely on advertisers The business model of many internet companies depends on advertising revenues. This holds especially true for some companies that are well-known online, such as Meta (Facebook, WhatsApp), Alphabet, Amazon, but also Snap, Pinterest and Twitter. For example, about 81% of revenues at Alphabet are from advertising, according to Moody’s. The revenues of these companies have exploded as many advertisers have moved their advertising budgets online. This move has been compounded by the relatively high effectiveness of online advertising. Western Europe advertising expenditure (US$bn) Source: Magna Global, S&P Global Market Intelligence The outlook for advertising revenues has deteriorated As shown by the figures above, advertising expenditures allocated to time-based, or linear, audio-visual media is expected to be moved towards digital media. From 2016 to 2025, advertising spending on linear media is expected to decline by 29% according to Magna Global, while advertising spending on digital media is expected to more than double in the same period. Revenue growth at the digital platforms is therefore not only driven by market growth but mostly by shifting advertising preferences. The bigger advertising agencies have so far not announced any weakness in advertising revenues. According to Bloomberg, the consensus expectation for Omnicom’s organic 2022 revenue growth is still around 3%. Publicis raised its expectation for organic 2022 revenue growth on 21 July, to which the equity market reacted strongly positive. The fact that these companies did not report disappointing revenues can be explained by the fact that the budgets the agencies work with have been committed beforehand. By comparison, ads on technology platforms are often sold through an auction. This real-time process makes the pricing of ads much more susceptible to a drop in demand. Something we see happening now. In addition, agencies are making their way into this new domain of online advertising. Publicis made some acquisitions and is working with an ID-based solution to track online advertising performance. Quarterly revenue developments online advertising companies (YoY) Source: Refinitiv Eikon   Recently, however, many social media companies have announced that they expect their advertising revenues to decline. Meta announced a small year-on-year decline in 2Q revenues by -0.9%, while its historical average quarterly growth rate has been 35.8% since 2015. This is the first time the company has reported negative quarterly revenue growth. Alphabet announced an overall revenue increase of 12.6% in 2Q22, but the company mentioned that its advertising segment is facing headwinds, while cloud is doing well. Snap announced a 2Q22 revenue increase of 13%. The company had indicated already in May that growth would be below the initial guidance of 20-25% growth for 2Q22. Nevertheless, the strong secular growth in online advertisement demand could mask the effects of an economic slowdown. Most companies are still reporting revenue growth, despite headwinds. However, when online advertising becomes more mature, it can no longer take market share from linear advertising budgets while it relies more on growing advertising budgets. Therefore, at some point in the future, growth rates of digital advertising revenues should come down while the industry becomes more prone to economic cycles. For now, online advertisers are still grappling with the effects of policies that intend to increase the privacy of citizens. Apple has restricted the online tracking of users In the summer of 2021, Apple started to significantly restrict the ability of advertisers to track the behaviour of users. Apple introduced a new privacy feature for iOS devices that limits app developers to target users as well as to measure ad performance. Companies that relied on such tools, such as Meta and Snap, have been impacted to a larger extent than advertisement companies relying on other means, such as advertisement income from search ads. In its 4Q21 earnings call, Meta announced that it expects the changes in iOS to have an impact on 2022 revenues of about $10bn. We could see more barriers raised to target specific users Apart from changes made at Apple, Google is also planning to phase out mechanisms that track user behaviour through cookies. There is an industry-wide awareness that users are increasingly concerned with the information collected by technology platforms. The introduction of cookie legislation as well as the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) have also contributed to this. Google, for example, plans to introduce a new tool which should replace cookie tracking. It has been delayed now to next year. Nevertheless, there are many ways to segment users to be able to target ads. However, this is costly and easier for some than others. Some advertising agencies are also uncertain about the potential impact of restricting cookies. S4 mentions in its 2021 annual report that: “Google’s announcement that it will be blocking third-party cookies by 2023 (delayed from 2022) presents both a significant opportunity and challenge to the group, given that several of our programmatic activities are built on top of the third-party cookie”. In any case, new technology has to match the appropriate regulations such as GDPR. There are also other issues. People use multiple devices interchangeable, which makes it hard for third-party cookies to track consumer behaviour as well as the effectiveness of advertisements. Users may open an email or website on one device and buy the goods or services that are advertised from another device. This reduces the effectiveness of the current systems. Bigger platforms have more opportunities to invest in new technology Other means to place targeted advertisements are possible. Some companies already own specific user data, which makes it easier to sell advertisements targeted at specific user groups. Companies that sell ads based on user search requests still have a straightforward model. It will also be possible to sell ads based on the context it will be shown in. Furthermore, systems could be created around target groups using data in an anonymised way. Nevertheless, it remains a challenge for companies to target specific user groups while also acknowledging privacy regulations that are likely to become stricter over time, because societies seem more willing to implement tougher regulations. And citizens are becoming increasingly aware of the value of their online profiles and are more able to avoid being tracked. So, companies need the financial muscle to keep investing in regulation-proof alternatives. Scale and a large user base make it easier to do so. Alphabet’s division Google announced that it is going to replace cookie tracking. However, the company has postponed the implementation date and has changed the characteristics of the solution that initially was intended to replace cookie tracking. Financial conditions are tightening causing cost reduction efforts Technology platforms are not only faced with revenue headwinds but also their cost of funding increasing. In August 2020, Alphabet issued 2027 notes in dollars at a yield of 0.8%. Today, these bonds have a yield of 4.2%. At the end of August 2021, Netflix's 4.875% 2030 USD notes traded at a yield of 2.37%, while today it yields slightly over 6%. This is happening at a time when interest rates in the broader market are increasing and it implies higher interest costs in the future for companies. The weakening outlook for advertising revenues also reflects a broader weak economic outlook, the catalyst for the equity sell-off, as reflected by equity indices turning lower. According to the Financial Times, investors have been selling private equity and venture capital funds at the fastest pace on record. Because of these tightening financial conditions, technology firms are turning their focus on cash flow generation, as opposed to investing in new ventures with an uncertain and remote pay-off. Snap has announced a reduction of its workforce by 20% and is reprioritising investments. Meta announced a headcount reduction for the first time as well as a sweeping reorganisation. Google chief executive Sundar Pichai hopes to make the company 20% more productive while slowing hiring and investments. Clearly, companies are working hard to make the best out of this situation. Snapchat's parent company Snap is cutting its workforce by 20% due to revenue growth falling below expectations Summary Advertising platforms expect a slowdown in advertising revenue growth because of the expected economic slowdown. This comes at a time when companies are already having to overcome challenges from stricter privacy settings. Over time, the allocation of advertising budgets from linear media to digital media is expected to continue, providing a tailwind to revenues. Nevertheless, digital advertising companies are expected to only grow their revenues in line with market growth and will be more exposed to economic cycles over time. Investments in solutions that can track user behaviour in a privacy regulation-proof way need to continue. But the targeting of narrow audience segments will likely be challenging with regulations becoming stricter. These headwinds are compounded momentarily by tighter financial conditions. Read this article on THINK TagsTechnology Social media NASDAQ Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The Japanese Yen Retreats as USD/JPY Gains Momentum

Chinese indices - Hang Seng and CSI 300 lost a lot, Q3 earnings season is underway with Coca-Cola, Apple and others publishing their earnings this week!

Peter Garnry Peter Garnry 24.10.2022 23:34
Summary:  Chinese equities are significantly lower today following the country's leadership shuffle over the weekend as investors are increasingly readjusting lower their views on longer term growth in private sector profits. Chinese equities are selling at a historical discount to US equities in a sign of a rising equity risk premium on Chinese equities. This rising equity risk premium comes also with risk for the US equity market as many US companies have large revenue exposure to China. We also take a look at the Q3 earnings season and the upcoming earnings this week which will determine the short-term sentiment and reaction. Will international investors reconsider their exposure to China? There are bad days in the equity market when everything is on sale with liquidity effects driving all stocks over the cliff, and then there are days when an isolated equity market plunges even when most other equity markets are on the rise. The latter happened in today’s trading session when the Hang Seng Index declined by 6% and the CSI 300 (mainland Chinese index) fell 3% as investors decided to sell first and ask questions later upon witnessing the shuffle in Chinese leadership presented over the weekend. The weekend’s events in China are arguably the culmination of a long journey, in which China has been placing ever more emphasis on the importance of the public sector over the private sector, as encapsulated in the Chinese policy of “Common Prosperity”. The price action in Chinese equities speaks volumes when we see the tumbling Hang Seng Price Index trading at levels not seen since the global financial crisis in 2009, even if the total return index is less gloomy and only at a level last seen in 2013. More importantly, the spread in equity valuation between the Hang Seng Composite Index and S&P 500 has dropped to very low levels (60% below S&P 500) with the Hang Seng Composite Index now valued at a mere 6.8 times earnings. The rising Chinese equity risk premium The valuation differential reflects the growing political risk premium and lower confidence in those underlying Chinese earnings as Common Prosperity is likely a drag on private sector earnings growth longer term. At times in recent years, Chinese technology companies often traded at higher equity valuations than their Silicon Valley peers, but since Common Prosperity was adopted, the situation has changed dramatically with lower earnings and revenue growth among Chinese technology companies, leading to massive losses for investors. We maintain an underweight view on Chinese equities as a precautionary measure. As we have noted in previous equity notes countries such as India, Vietnam, and Indonesia are the big winners of the current realignment of global supply chains and thus considering for Asian exposure. A growing equity risk premium on Chinese equities naturally leads to the question of whether the US equity market could suddenly be jolted by a repricing of its China exposure. Is a dollar of free cash flow in China worth the same as a dollar of free cash flow from the US or Europe? Arguably not, and while this has been reflected in the revaluation of many semiconductor companies (also partly due to the US CHIPS Act) it has not been fully reflected in more consumer-oriented stocks like Apple and Tesla. With around 20% of its revenue coming from China, Apple’s risk profile could be rising on the risk of a sudden repricing due of a Chinese equity risk premium. Tesla gets 25% of its revenue in China and thus also has significant China exposure that is currently not reflected in its equity valuation. As we have stated in our previous equity notes, Apple and Tesla shares are key for broader equity sentiment and any downside risk dynamics in these two stocks could quickly jeopardize the wider equity market. Investor flows into Chinese equities and companies with high China exposure While price action tells one story on China, investor flows in ETFs tracking MSCI China A shares are telling a slightly different story. The number of outstanding shares (essentially how much capital that is deployed in an underlying index) has been growing steadily over the years as China’s capital markets have opened up. The has led to more inclusion in EM- and global benchmark indices of equities and bonds. While we have seen significant outflows out of ETFs tracking CNY bonds, until very recently at least, we have observed the opposite in Chinese equities. Falling equity prices in China have prompted rising investor flows into a “China is cheap” narrative. But sometimes, things are cheap for a reason (the equity risk premium discussion above). Over the last couple of months, this trend has shifted: in August, the largest UCITS ETF, which tracks MSCI China A shares, has begun seeing declining outstanding shares. As of Friday the current drawdown was -12%. This could be an early sign that investor appetite is on the decline. MSCI, the leading global equity index provider, has created an index called the MSCI World with China Exposure Index (USD) It covers 51 companies with the greatest revenue exposure to China. This index is a good starting point for any investor who would like to break down portfolio exposure to China. The 10 largest companies in the MSCI World with China Exposure Index (USD) are listed below. Qualcomm BHP Group Texas Instruments Broadcom Rio Tinto Applied Materials Woodside Energy Lam Research Fortescue Metals Group Marvell Technology As noted above, in addition to this list we would argue companies such as Apple and Tesla have considerable revenue exposure to China and thus have downside risks to their equity valuation. Q3 earnings so far show margin compression The numbers so far show that earnings are down q/q across all the major equity indices after a strong Q2. With revenue growth remaining strong due to inflation, profit margins on the other hand are under pressure. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 index in particular is showing severe margin compression with the profit margin down 2.8%-points since Q2 2021 and narrowing its spread to the MSCI World. This reduction in profit margin relative to the MSCI World is another way of expressing how higher interest rates and inflation are driving the comeback of the physical world over profits driven by intangibles. The list below shows a condensed version of the more than 400 earnings releases this week among the companies that are included in our earnings coverage. The most important earnings releases for market sentiment in US equities are Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, UPS, General Electric, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Intel, Caterpillar, Exxon Mobil, and Chevron. In Europe, investors will focus on DSV, SAP, HSBC, Mercedes-Benz, BASF, TotalEnergies, EDF, Shell, Credit Suisse, Sanofi, Airbus, and Volkswagen. Today: Nidec, Philips, Cadence Design Systems Tuesday: First Quantum Minerals, Canadian National Railway, DSV, UPM-Kymmene, SAP, HSBC, ASM International, Norsk Hydro, Novartis, UBS, Kuhne + Nagel, Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Coca-Cola, Texas Instruments, UPS, Raytheon Technologies, General Electric, 3M, General Motors, Valero Energy, Biogen, Enphase Energy, Halliburton, Spotify Technology Wednesday: Dassault Systemes, Mercedes-Benz, BASF, Deutsche Bank, PingAn Insurance, CGN Power, UniCredit, Canon, Barclays, Standard Chartered, Heineken, Aker BP, Iberdrola, Banco Santander, SEB, Meta Platforms, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Bristol-Myers Squibb, ADP, Boeing, ServiceNow, Ford Motor, Twitter Thursday: ANZ, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Argenx, Shopify, Teck Resources, Neste, Kone, TotalEnergies, EDF, STMicroelectronics, PetroChina, China Life Insurance, CNOOC, Oriental Land, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Hoya, FANUC, Shell, Lloyds Banking Group, Universal Music Group, Repsol, Ferrovial, Hexagon, Evolution, Credit Suisse, Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Merck & Co, McDonald’s, Linde, Intel, Honeywell, Caterpillar, Gilead Sciences, Pioneer Natural Resources, Friday: Macquarie Group, OMV, ICBC, China Merchants Bank, LONGi Green Energy Technology, Midea Group, Imperial Oil, Danske Bank, Sanofi, Airbus, Volkswagen, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, BYD, China Shenhua Energy, Eni, Keyence, Hitachi, Denso, Equinor, CaixaBank, Wilmar International, Swiss Re, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, AbbVie, NextEra Energy, Colgate-Palmolive, Royal Caribbean Cruises Source: Chinas risk premium on the rise critical earnings week ahead | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Canada's Inflation Expected to Ease in May, Impacting BoC's Rate Decision

What a week it was! Macro data, ECB interest rate decision and earnings of Apple, Amazon and Google

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 30.10.2022 22:52
U.S. earnings season is underway, and through it, we could learn how the current economic situation is affecting various sectors. Unlike last week, in which it was possible to get an impression of a better-than-expected situation in the banking sector, we now seem to be experiencing a negative surprise among many technology giants. Macroeconomic data At the start of the week, we learned the PMI industrial health index for Germany and the UK, with results of 45.7 points (47 points were expected), and 45.8 points (48 points were expected), respectively. We could see similar readings in July 2022. In addition, these values may indicate a deepening recession in the sector (a reading below 50 points is taken as a decline in activity). On Wednesday, we learned data from the US real estate market. September home sales came in at 604,000 (585,000 was expected), down 74,000 from the previous reading. It seems that the decline may have been caused by rising interest rates and an increase in mortgage rates, which fewer and fewer Americans can afford. On Thursday, we could learn about the Eurozone interest rate decision, which was raised in line with analysts' expectations by 0.75 percentage points, and now the main refinancing rate is at 2% and the deposit rate at 1.5%. The U.S. labor market appears to remain strong, with the number of new claims for unemployment benefits at 217,000 (220,000 was expected). These are the lowest figures since March 2020. Equity market It seems that a positive week cannot be credited to the FAANG tech giants (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google). Only Netflix surprised with a positive result last week. On the other hand, the CEO of Meta Platforms (Facebook) hinted after the company's conference that he was wary of costs in his metaverse project. This information may have influenced the close of Thursday's session and a share price drop of more than 24 percent. Source: Mt5, Facebook, Weekly Also, surprising was a tweet shared by Elon Musk, in which he showed that he had come with the kitchen sink to Twitter headquarters. We learned that the deal to buy the company was coming to an end at the original price of $54.2 per share. For this reason, the board of directors of the New York Stock Exchange decided to suspend trading of the stock during Friday's session. Meanwhile, the U.S. real estate industry may have surprised positively, as results came in better than expected despite seemingly declining demand and an environment of rising interest rates. Falling commodity prices and widespread inflation may have allowed business costs to be passed on to customers. As a result, almost half of the real estate companies (AlexRe, Equity, Essex, among others) reported net income from operations more than 50 percent higher than expectations. Currency market After Thursday's Eurozone interest rate decision, the EUR/USD exchange rate hovered around parity at 1.000 for a while, eventually falling to a range of 0.995-1.000. It seems that the European currency is starting to strengthen, this time in anticipation of the upcoming FOMC meeting on November 2. Interest rates remained unchanged following Friday's central Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting. As Reuters reports: “The Bank of Japan kept ultra-low interest rates on Friday and maintained its dovish guidance, cementing its status as an outlier among global central banks tightening monetary policy, as recession fears dampen prospects for a solid recovery. The central bank also announced plans to increase the frequency of its bond buying next month, doubling down on efforts to defend its ultra-loose monetary policy.”. As a result, the price of the USD/JPY pair has risen above JPY 147 since the decision. Source: MT5, USDJPY, Daily Earnings Results season continues next week On Monday, we will learn CPI inflation readings for the Eurozone. On Wednesday, the FOMC's decision on interest rate changes appears to be key. Analysts' consensus is for a 0.75 percentage point hike, in addition, US crude oil inventories may prove important. On Friday, on the other hand, we will learn data on the change in employment in non-farm sectors (NFP), which the FED seems to pay particular attention to. The continuation of the earnings season on Wall Street will show us on Monday the results of the fund of famed investor Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway (BerkshireHa). On Tuesday, we'll learn the Q3 results of healthcare giant Pfizer (Pfizer) and one of the semiconductor and processor industry leaders AMD (AMD). On Thursday, Paypal (PayPal), Starbucks (Starbucks) and Airbnb (AirBNB) will report. The results of the last company may seem particularly interesting, bringing us closer to the situation in the travel industry. Author: Grzegorz Dróżdż, a Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Read more reviews and open a demo account at invest.conotoxia.com Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75,21% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Read the article on Conotoxia.com
The US Dollar (USD) And The US Dollar To Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH) Pair Show An Upward Move

Facebook’s plan for large scale layoffs, the US dollar rally halted on Monday, Corporate America under investigation

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 07.11.2022 13:38
Summary: Meta plans to start mass layoffs this week that will affect thousands of employees. The pound and euro increased as a result of the dollar's decline. After the midterm elections, Republicans have promised to pursue investigations into corporate America. Meta To implement layoffs this week The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, citing people familiar with the situation, that Meta Platforms Inc. plans to start mass layoffs this week that will affect thousands of employees. An announcement is expected as early as Wednesday. Meta, the parent company of Facebook (META), predicted in October that a dismal Christmas quarter and much higher costs in 2019 would reduce Meta's stock market value by around $67 billion, adding to the more than half a trillion dollars in value that has already been lost this year. Read next: China's Covid Situation Negatively Affects The Iphone Market| Record Results Of India's SBI| FXMAG.COM The gloomy news comes as Meta struggles to deal with the declining global economy, TikTok's rivalry, Apple's (AAPL) privacy improvements, worries about large spending on the metaverse, and the constant danger of legislation. The social media business had reduced its ambitions to hire engineers by at least 30% in June, and Mark Zuckerberg had advised staff to prepare for a slowdown in the economy. In a previous open letter to Mark Zuckerberg, Meta's shareholder Altimeter Capital Management stated that the company needed to streamline by eliminating positions and capital expenditures. They also stated that investors had lost faith in Meta as a result of its increased spending and pivot to the metaverse. *FACEBOOK PARENT META IS PREPARING LARGE-SCALE LAYOFFS THIS WEEK - https://t.co/ktT04bvkcH $META pic.twitter.com/OEeSsaTsoj — Investing.com (@Investingcom) November 7, 2022 US dollar’s decline Despite Beijing's denial that it would contemplate loosening its zero COVID-19 policy, which had stopped safe-haven dollar flows ahead of this week's potentially crucial consumer inflation data, global stocks moved higher on Monday. However, over the weekend, health officials reaffirmed their commitment to the "dynamic-clearing" approach to COVID cases as soon as they arise. Risk assets had gained on Friday amid rumors China was getting ready to lift its pandemic restrictions. As traders clung to the notion that China will ease some of its restrictions after the government on Monday hinted it will make it easier for individuals to enter and exit the city, an overnight rise in the dollar had faded out by mid-morning in Europe. The pound increased by over 0.8% to $1.1453 as a result of the dollar's decline against other major currencies, and the euro increased by 0.4% to close to parity at $0.99975. Economic events in this week's spotlight The October consumer price index (CPI) will be the biggest macroeconomic risk event this week and might play a significant role in influencing investor expectations for the future direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell dispelled rumors that the central bank may halt the rate of rate increases by asserting that rates would probably stay higher, for a longer period of time. The October employment report, which was released on Friday, revealed considerably greater job growth than anticipated but slower pay growth and an increase in the unemployment rate, suggesting that some of the labor market's tightness may be easing. *U.S. STOCK FUTURES RISE TO START THE WEEK AS INVESTORS LOOK AHEAD TO U.S. CPI, MIDTERM ELECTIONS - https://t.co/lkfZcXR6Xb 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/ZE0YdNisWF — Investing.com (@Investingcom) November 7, 2022 Investigations in corporate America After the midterm elections, Republicans have promised to pursue investigations into the social and environmental policies of big business, so the biggest US companies are preparing for a flood of congressional hearings. After the midterm elections on Tuesday, control of both houses of Congress could go to the Republicans as polls suggest the Democrats are trailing in a number of crucial contests. Republicans would take control of the committees with the authority to subpoena people and records if they gained a majority in the House or Senate. According to people familiar with the situation, attorneys representing financial institutions and technological companies have recently been educating executives on how to respond to a televised grilling from lawmakers. Additionally, with only a few days until the midterm elections, Republican senators—among them Arkansas' Tom Cotton—have written to law firms requesting them to store records pertaining to environmental, social, and governance efforts "in anticipation" of investigations. Corporate America gears up for a new wave of investigations by Congress https://t.co/22IlpMI881 — Financial Times (@FT) November 7, 2022 Sources: ft.com, twitter.com, investing.com
Bank of England Faces Rate Decision: Uncertainty Surrounds Magnitude of Hike

After This Holiday Rally, You Better Know When To Walk Away

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 23.11.2022 16:46
This week's investor insight will make you think twice about the current stock and bond rally as we head into the end of the year. We get a lot of questions about if the stock market has bottomed or if it is headed lower and how they can take advantage of the next Major market move. Over the next 6 to 12 months, I expect the market to have violent price swings that will either make or break your financial future. So let me show a handful of charts and show what I expect to unfold. Let's dive in. We're told that "quitters never win." But is it always wise to stick with something when it no longer serves us — or worse, continues to harm us? Many years ago, when Texas hold'em poker was big and online gambling was allowed in Canada, I used to run a poker league and build custom poker tables for people across the United States and Canada. I love poker, and I still play it to this very day, but the game does require skill, a proper mindset, and self-discipline. Without all three of these things, poker is pure gambling. It's the same when it comes to active trading or investing if you lack the skills, mindset, and self-discipline. Retired professional poker player Annie Duke, who is also a best-selling author, and decision strategist who advises seed-stage Startups, says that learning when to quit is a critical skill, especially for investors. Annie states, "Quitting is a good thing when applied at the right time." If you've been following me for any time, then you know I follow a detailed trading strategy with position and risk management rules. As a result, you won't find me taking random trades or trading based on emotions. Instead, you'll find me patiently waiting on the sidelines for a high-probability trade signal to reinvest my capital. I trade differently. I don't diversify. I don't buy-and-hope, and I don't have any positions at certain times. What I do is reinvest in assets that are rising in value. And when a particular asset stops moving higher, I give up on the position and exit it immediately. Because I use technical analysis to follow price action, we can quickly and easily determine if an asset is rising or falling. Therefore, I can step aside and let the asset fall and look for a new opportunity that is rising, or hold the falling position and ride it lower for who knows how long… Unfortunately, most traders and investors do not understand how to read the markets, or they don't have control of their money. They are at the mercy of what the market does or the skills of whoever controls their capital. Let me share some of my market insight and help guide you On October 21st, I stated that retirement accounts should bottom and rally into the end of the year. Bonds were hitting 11-year lows. In short, anyone holding 20+ year treasury bonds had just lost more than ten years of investment growth wiped out.  Bonds, the highly touted safe, low-risk asset, fell over 47% from the 2020 high. It caused similar losses to the average investor portfolio comparable to the 2008 financial crisis. It was the worst selloff ever for treasury bonds that I can see on my charting platform. The real kicker is that the selloff in both stocks and bonds could have been avoided with just a little education and management. Subscribers and I happened to ride the COVID bond rally higher by 19%, exited the position, and moved to cash the day bond prices topped. It was partly luck to exit at the peak, but we would have exited the following trading session if we didn’t lock in profits because we managed our positions and risk. As the price reversed direction, we jumped shipped to one of my favorite positions, which almost no one thinks about or uses – CASH. 2022 has been a painful year for investors, and people are telling me they are scared to look at their investment statements. It now looks like bonds and stocks have started a seasonal rally that could help lift your portfolio as we head into the end of the year, but once it ends, look out! Bonds and Stock Seasonality Price Movement Daily Chart of 60/40 Portfolio You should have seen your account rally 6% or more since Oct 21st, and I think it will continue higher once the market digests the recent move up. While this may excite you, be aware that after this rally, we could see another 20-47% decline in stocks and bonds in 2023. This year-end bounce is nothing more than an opportunity to get out of the antiquated Buy-and-Hope strategy that does not work during a volatile and weakening economic environment. The next few charts, which are big heavyweight stocks that drive the market higher and pull it lower, should help you see what I see.  AAPL Weekly Chart and Potential Breakdown Apple is a heavyweight stock. When it moves, it moves the stock market. Currently, AAPL shares are in what I call a STAGE 3 Distribution phase, and if support is broken, then look out below! TSLA Weekly Chart and Potential Breakdown Tesla shares are another heavyweight, and its weekly chart paints a bleak future for holders. META (Facebook) Weekly Chart Breakdown Leads The Way Down Facebook, or what is now called META, is a heavyweight stock that has already broken down from its STAGE 3 Distribution phase. As you can see, when these mega stocks break down and unwind, individual investors who have their money managed by so-called professionals who don’t know how to manage risk suffer the most. The drop in META shares has held the tech, social, and even the S&P 500, and Nasdaq from rallying freely to the upside in the past month. When/if AAPL, TSLA, and other heavyweights break down, expect panic on Wall Street. My general rule of thumb is if someone tells you to diversify into a bunch of different assets, stocks, commodities, bonds, crypto, etc… then they don’t know what they are doing. They are a buy-and-hold believer and willing to let their own money or that of their clients experience the severe price swings the market dishes out. – Billionaire investor warren Buffet says, “Diversification makes very little sense for those who know what they are doing.” – Multimillionaire investor Jim Rogers said, “Diversification is something that stockbrokers came up with to protect themselves, so they wouldn’t get sued for making bad investment choices for clients, and that you can go broke diversifying.” The Four Stages Of Asset Prices If you think the 2022 pullback has been distressing, you better buckle up because the bear market has not even technically started yet, from my standard. Instead, in early 2023 we should enter a STAGE 4 Decline. This is when people's financial future and retirement lifestyles are created or broken, depending on how it's managed. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying the market will fall in 2023. I’m letting you know it's very possible, and you best have a plan in place. On the other hand, if the markets have some miraculous recovery and start a new bull market, well, you better have a plan for that also. Either way, you need a plan, and if you are a technical trader who follows price and manages positions, it doesn't matter what the market does; we are set either way. S&P 500 Bear Market Expectations 2023 The S&P 500 chart shows the extreme low that we could possibly reach if the economy and stock market fully unwind. Bonds would sell off as well until the Fed decides to step in and starts lowering the rates to try and save investors, but there will be a delay, and bonds will likely fall sharply before we see that take effect. CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:In short, without going off too much on a rant, you can read the three lies we are told by financial professionals that really IRK me. Because of these lies, individual investors must work harder, work longer and experience painful financial outcomes. What you may not know is that what you went through in 2008, the 2020 crash, and this year's correction could have been completely avoided. If you followed a NO BS investing method that tracks price using technical analysis, is simple to follow, and is uber-conservative, then your account would be sitting at a new all-time high watermark as of this week. The financial industry tells us to do all the wrong things, and almost everyone falls for the BS; it's so frustrating to watch! LIE #1: Diversify, Diversify, Diversify LIE #2: Bonds Are A Safe Investment And Should Represent A Large Portion Of An Investors Portfolio LIE #3: Speak With An investment Broker Or Advisor Before Placing Any Trade To Be Sure It Is Suitable For Your Personal Circumstances.  It's total baloney because almost everyone gets the same generic advice, buy-and-hold stocks and bonds, don't give up on it, ride out the rollercoaster, and you will be fine, trust me… Who came up with that strategy? Sure, my 10-year-old son could buy some stocks and bonds once, let it ride for 20-30 years, and be ok. He has time and not that much money, but the big question is at what age does the stock and bond, buy-and-hope strategy become a harmful and risky investment strategy? 50-ish years of age is my thinking. Knowing bear markets can take 3-12 years to recover from, someone who is 50+, planning to retire soon, or is already retired, doesn't have 10+ years to keep working and saving to avoid withdrawing funds from their retirement account. Also, the fact that they have the most wealth ever in their lifetime, they should be concerned about holding through future bear markets.  Don't be fooled. Just because everyone else has been brainwashed to buy-and-hold, aka buy-and-hope, and suffers stock market selloffs does not mean you should…  It's like the average investor has Stockholm syndrome. They have all been beaten up by the markets over and over again. They think that's how it should be. And in some cases are paying someone to take their money, plop it into the market, and do nothing with it for 10 - 40 years. They pay a % of their life savings each year to someone who has no risk and does not need to do too much of anything, while the investor suffers massive multi-year drawdowns, experiences high levels of stress, and sometimes big losses. The typical investing experience most people endure is NOT how it should be. There is a better way, and I can show you. My passion is trading and investing, having been at it for over 25 years. My goal is to help as many investors as possible to preserve their capital during difficult times and also be able to grow their wealth by trading only the most liquid ETFs. My investing strategy signals allow individuals to only hold assets that are rising in value.
US Corn and Soybean Crop Conditions Decline, Wheat Harvest Progresses, and Weaker Grain Exports

Apple (AAPL) dropped 2.54% after Bloomberg reported that the tech giant plans to delay the launch of its electric vehicle to 2026 - Intertrader

Intertrader Market News Intertrader Market News 07.12.2022 15:20
DAILY MARKET NEWSLETTER December 7, 2022                 Pre-Market Session News Sentiment Technical Views           EUR/USD   Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)   Brent (ICE)                 Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.                     Price Movement Analyst Views Target Pivot   Dax (Eurex) 14,353.00 -124.00 (-0.86%) Read the analysis 14,270.00 14,478.00     FTSE 100 (ICE Europe) 0.00 0.00 (0.00%) Read the analysis 7,536.00 7,591.00     S&P 500 (CME) 3,943.25 -60.00 (-1.50%) Read the analysis 3,922.00 3,960.00     Nasdaq 100 (CME) 11,561.25 -244.50 (-2.07%) Read the analysis 11,480.00 11,670.00     Dow Jones (CME) 33,624.00 -362.00 (-1.07%) Read the analysis 33,470.00 33,730.00     Crude Oil (WTI) 74.27 -2.66 (-3.46%) Read the analysis 73.40 75.20     Gold 1,771.23 +2.55 (+0.14%) Read the analysis 1,765.00 1,776.00                     MARKET WRAP           Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, CommoditiesOn Tuesday, U.S. stocks remained under pressure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 350 points (-1.03%) to 33,596, the S&P 500 fell 57 points (-1.44%) to 3,941, and the Nasdaq 100 was down 237 points (-2.01%) to 11,549.Media (-3.11%), energy (-2.65%), and semiconductors (-2.58%) sectors lost the most.Apple (AAPL) dropped 2.54% after Bloomberg reported that the tech giant plans to delay the launch of its electric vehicle to 2026.Meta Platforms (META) slid 6.79% on reports that European Union regulators do not allow the company to place personalized ads.NRG Energy (NRG) plunged 15.08% after the company agreed to buy Vivint Smart Home (VVNT) for 2.8 billion dollars.Goldman Sachs (GS) declined 2.32%. Reuters reported that the bank is considering buying crypto-currency companies.The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield retreated 4 basis points to 3.533%.European stocks also closed lower. The DAX 40 fell 0.72%, the CAC 40 dipped 0.14%, and the FTSE 100 was down 0.61%.U.S. WTI crude futures fell $2.70 (-3.51%) to $74.27 a barrel.Gold price added $2 to $1,771 an ounce.Market Wrap: ForexThe U.S. dollar regained further strength against other major currencies. The dollar index climbed to 105.58.EUR/USD fell 25 pips to 1.0466. Data showed that Germany’s factory orders grew 0.8% on month in October (vs +0.6% expected). November S&P Global construction purchasing managers index was posted at 43.6 for the Eurozone (vs 46.0 expected), at 41.5 for Germany (vs 45.1 expected), and at 40.7 for France (vs 49.9 expected).GBP/USD slid 61 pips to 1.2129.USD/JPY rose 31 pips to 137.06.AUD/USD declined 13 pips to 0.6685.USD/CHF dipped 5 pips to 0.9421, and USD/CAD increased 65 pips to 1.3653.Bitcoin kept struggling around the $17,000 level.Morning TradingIn Asian trading hours, Australia's data showed that third-quarter gross domestic product grew 0.6% on quarter (vs +0.8% expected) and 5.9% on year (vs +6.4% expected). China’s data showed that trade surplus declined to $69.84 billion (vs $81.00 billion expected) in November with exports slumping 8.7% on year (vs -3.5% expected).AUD/USD was stable at 0.6689, while USD/JPY traded higher at 137.20.EUR/USD dipped to 1.0461, and GBP/USD was flat at 1.2130.Gold price was little changed at $1,771 an ounce.Bitcoin managed to take back the level of $17,000.Expected Today  The U.K. Halifax house price index is expected to decline 0.1% on month but rise 7.1% on year in November.Germany’s industrial production is expected to decline 0.8% on month in October.Canada's central bank is expected to hike its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%.The U.S. Energy Department is expected to report a reduction of 3.88 million barrels in crude-oil stockpiles.           UK MARKET NEWS           Mitchells & Butlers Plc, a pub-&-restaurant operator, posted full-year results: "Total sales across the period were 2,208 million pounds reflecting a 1.3% decline on FY 2019, driven mainly by temporary covid-related sales reductions and closures in the first part of the year plus site disposals since FY 2019. Despite this, adjusted operating profit of 240 million pounds reflects a strong return to profitability. (...) On a statutory basis, profit before tax for the year was 8 million pounds (FY 2021 loss 42 million pounds)."Insurance, basic resources and utilities shares gained most in London on Monday.From a relative strength vs FTSE 100 point of view, Aviva (+0.18% to 444.2p), Barclays (+1.59% to 158.76p) crossed above their 50-day moving average.           ECONOMIC CALENDAR           Time Event Forecast Importance   02:00 Halifax House Price Index MoM (Nov) -0.1% MEDIUM     02:00 Halifax House Price Index YoY (Nov) 7.1% MEDIUM     08:30 Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Final (Q3) 0.3% MEDIUM     08:30 Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final (Q3) 3.5% MEDIUM     10:30 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Dec/02) 2.707M MEDIUM     10:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Dec/02) -3.305M MEDIUM                                     NEWS SENTIMENT           Standard Chartered PLC STAN : LSE 591.80 GBp -4.15% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                 Trade                 Deutsche Bank AG DBK : XETRA 10.072 EUR -0.49% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                 Trade                 Siemens AG SIE : XETRA 133.76 EUR +1.94% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                 Trade                 Glencore PLC GLEN : LSE 556.10 GBp -1.31% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                 Trade         TECHNICAL VIEWS           EUR/USD Intraday: under pressure.   Pivot: 1.0485   Our preference: Short positions below 1.0485 with targets at 1.0445 & 1.0425 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 1.0485 look for further upside with 1.0515 & 1.0530 as targets.   Comment: The RSI is mixed to bearish.     Trade               Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)‎ (Z2)‎ Intraday: consolidation.   Pivot: 3971.00   Our preference: Short positions below 3971.00 with targets at 3921.00 & 3900.00 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 3971.00 look for further upside with 3984.00 & 3998.00 as targets.   Comment: As long as 3971.00 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.     Trade               Brent (ICE)‎ (G3)‎ Intraday: under pressure.   Pivot: 80.70   Our preference: Short positions below 80.70 with targets at 78.70 & 77.50 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 80.70 look for further upside with 82.40 & 83.65 as targets.   Comment: The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.     Trade  
Markets under Pressure: Rising Yields, Strong Dollar, and Political Headwinds Weigh on Stocks"

US tech stocks losses are huge - Netflix and Facebook are more than 70% down from Autumn peaks

Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 30.12.2022 10:18
US indices rallied yesterday, in an effort to recover a part of the past few session losses, rather than a fresh move, on fresh news, as there was no fresh news yesterday.   But yesterday's jump in US indices was relatively strong, perhaps due to thin trading volumes that make look the year-end moves impressive, while they are not.   Anyway, the S&P500 gained 1.75% yesterday, and could maybe finish the year with less than a 20% loss, while Nasdaq jumped more than 2.50%, but will still end the year with more than a 30% drawdown.   Things have changed so much in one year!  The Pivot  Remember, last year at this time, we were about to see Apple become the world's first $3 trillion company. The S&P500 and Nasdaq were running from record to record, and no one imagined how bad the hangover would be.   We didn't know it at that time but the 2022 bear market officially kicked off just a couple of days after the year started, when the first FOMC minutes release of the year showed that the Federal Reserve (Fed) was no kidding about the rate hikes, and that the financial conditions would get real tighter over the year.   And man, they got tighter... way tighter than we expected a year ago, with the Fed raising its interest rates 425bp starting from March.   As a result, Apple lost a third of its value, Amazon lost half of its valuation since the beginning of the year and, this month, became the first US big cap to lose more than $1 trillion in valuation. Netflix lost up to 75% of its value compared to November 2021 peak, and Facebook scraped 77% of its value since September 2021 peak.  Read next: 2023 predictions: All in all I forecast the S&P to fall 5% on the year but the Nasdaq will fall 10% says Ivan Brian, Chief Equity Analyst at FXStreet | FXMAG.COM It has been a terrible year for chipmakers as well. Nvidia, one of the most promising and hyped chipmakers in the US has also lost half of its valuation as, on top of slowing post-pandemic demand, the US blocked exports to the fructuous Chinese market.  And last but not least, Tesla contributed greatly to the fall of the S&P500, losing almost half of its valuation only since the start of the year. And the share price is down by more than 70% since its November 2021 peak, as Elon Musk made the headlines again this year, but not for good reasons. Twitter has in fact taken a huge toll on man's reputation. 2022 hasn't been his year.   A bad year...  In reality, 2022 hasn't been the year of no one, I guess. A was started in Ukraine as soon as end February and wreaked havoc in the markets. The Western nations imposed sanctions on Russia in March. Ruble lost half of its value against the dollar at the wake of its first attack in Ukraine, but only to close the year flat, and even slightly stronger against the dollar compared to before the war, as the skyrocketing oil prices filled the country's coffers.   Oil on the other hand soared to $130pb at the wake of Russia's first attacks on Ukraine. We had all kind of speculation that it would rally to the $180-200pb area. But Thank God that didn't happen. We are preparing to end the year below $80pb instead, as the recession fears took a toll on bullish bets.   But energy stocks had a great year. Exxon Mobil, Chevron, BP, Shell did so great that the desperate Western governments watching inflation cause a huge cost of living crisis decided to impose windfall taxes on these companies who announced jaw dropping earnings throughout the year and Exxon ended up suing the EU for this decision just a couple of days ago.  While all this was happening, the US' national debt went above the $30 trillion mark.   But the US dollar gained, as the Fed raised rates. Others raised rates as well, but the dollar kept rising.   Cryptocurrencies saw massive outflows, and the outflows revealed the cracks in the system, causing the collapse of the major institutions like Terra Luna, and FTX lately.   And gold hasn't been great in tempering inflation, but at the end of the year, and despite the soaring yields, the yellow metal managed to recover yearly losses, and is even preparing to end the year around 1% higher than where it started in US dollar terms.   So voilà. Everything looked ugly this year, except for energy and the US dollar.   The major take of 2022  The most important take of the year is: the era of easy money ended, and ended for good. It means that the financial markets won't look like anything we knew since the subprime crisis.   This is the beginning of a new era, when central banks will be playing a more subdued role in the markets, with less liquidity available to fix problems – a more than necessary move that came perhaps too late, and too painfully.   And given that there is still plenty of cheap central bank liquidity waiting to be pulled back, the situation may not get better before it gets worse in the first quarters of next year. Recession, inflation, stagflation will likely dominate headlines next year.   Happy New Year!
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USA Q4 GDP should show a growth to 2.5% with a 2.6% clip for real final sales and a tiny $2 bln inventory addition

Stuart Cowell Stuart Cowell 24.01.2023 13:52
As you surely know, there's a lot of macroeconomic and stock news to talk about, so we asked HF Markets Head Market Analyst about the Australian inflation print, RBA decision, British pound amid PMIs, the US GDP and, to some, the most tempting events of the near future - McDonald's and Apple Earnings. This week Australian CPI goes public what do you expect from the print and the RBA decision on February 7th? Australian inflation, as determined by the CPI print today, is expected to move higher to 7.6% from 7.3% on an annual basis, however the quarterly figure is expected to fall to 1.6% from 1.8%, the lowest level since January 2022, as the low Q4 2021 figure drops out of the calculation. The RBA decision on February 7 remains "in flux" as far as the current market expectations are concerned. 14bp appears to be priced in as AUDUSD breaches the key psychological 0.7000 level this week. However, Hawks are calling for 25bp and Doves will be pitching a "No Change" policy. Do you expect GBP may be somehow boosted by PMIs on Tuesday? UK PMIs were disappointing, with the important Services sector slumping to a 2-year low. Data showed a 48.0 reading against expectations of 49.7 with the sector remaining in contraction, along with the manufacturing sector which reported a slight uptick to 46.7 from 45.3. Adding to woes for the UK was news that government borrowing in December hit £27.4bn, a 30-year high, and that ONS productivity data was revised significantly lower, with the UK going from the fastest growing G7 nation to the second slowest. Read next: South African Petrochemical Company Sasol Is Moving Away From Fossil Fuels, Germany Again Refused To Send Tanks To Ukraine| FXMAG.COM USA GDP is the big one this week, what asset could benefit the most from the lower/higher-than-expected print? Are you of the opinion GDP will be seriously taken into consideration by FED? USA Q4 GDP should show a growth to 2.5% with a 2.6% clip for real final sales and a tiny $2 bln inventory addition that leaves a restrained $40 bln inventory accumulation rate. The Q4 sales climb should be led by a solid 3.4% pace for consumption, alongside an estimated 5.5% growth pace for nonresidential investment. The housing sector should continue to weigh on the economy, with an estimated -12.0% Q4 contraction rate for residential investment. The solid close for GDP growth into the end of 2022 bodes well for a soft-landing path in 2023, though expectations are for a -0.4% contraction rate for GDP in Q1, and the risks for growth in 2023 lie to the downside. All this said, the FED will be more interested in Friday's Core PCE Price Index and its possible m/m increase to 0.3% from 0.2%. Earnings season is underway: what do you expect from McDonald's and Apple next week? Next week is a huge week for Q4 Earnings, with the tech giants reporting, topped by APPLE, who report after the market closes on Thursday February 2. Apple shares are up 13% from January lows with the market expecting quarterly revenues of a colossal $122 bln and EPS (Earnings Per Share) to be around $1.93-1.96. The outlook for the key markets of the US and China will be key to how the shares perform from here. Earlier in the week (January 31 before the market opens) iconic restaurant chain McDonald's reports Q4 Earnings. Consensus EPS are in the range of $2.45-$2.51, with revenues expected to show a lift to $5.60 bln.
Markets under Pressure: Rising Yields, Strong Dollar, and Political Headwinds Weigh on Stocks"

Bank of England has decided, Alphabet, Apple and Amazon share their earnings this evening as NFP report tomorrow is still another crucial event

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 02.02.2023 14:41
The Bank of England announced a monetary policy decision at 12:00 pm GMT and as widely expected it raised its benchmark interest rate by 50bps to 4.0 % with the 10th consecutive rate hike as it attempts to deal with high inflation and despite the risks of an expected economic recession this year. Furthermore, policymakers said, if there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening of monetary policy would be required. However, some optimism came in the form of the forecasts, which showed inflation in one year's time at 3.01% (November forecast: 5.2%), based on market interest rates and model forecasts. The pound received a boost from this news and rose against the USD which saw some weakness following yesterday's decision by the FED to raise interest rates by 25bp and in essence signalling the potential end of its tightening cycle. Investors also received the long awaited ECB decision, which was the last major central bank decision of the week with the Bank announcing a 50bp hike as expected. This event continued to add to the volatility across European equity markets and the Euro which have had a mixed reaction to the decision with EURUSD pulling back from the 1.10 area as the German index approaches recent highs. While central bank decisions were a highlight of the week, they are by no means the last events worth keeping an eye on as mega-tech company earnings await us with Alphabet, Apple and Amazon publishing their results after today's US market close and with the NFP report being published tomorrow which will give an idea of the highly followed US job market and which could change expectations for further rate hikes by the US central bank. Read next: Alphabet publishes its earnings today. Q4 EPS expected to reach $1.18| FXMAG.COM
The December CPI Upside Surprise: Why Markets Remain Skeptical About a Fed Rate Cut in March"   User napisz liste keywords, oddzile je porzecinakmie ChatGPT

BoE Faces Dilemma Amid Hawkish Fed and Economic Challenges: Analyst Insights

ING Economics ING Economics 02.11.2023 12:56
BoE between a rock and a hard place.  By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank   As widely expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its interest rates unchanged at this week's meeting and President Jerome Powell cited that the recent surge – especially in the long end of the US yield curve – helped tightening the financial conditions in the US. Powell repeated that the Fed is proceeding carefully but that they are 'not confident that inflation is on path toward 2%' target'. US policymakers redefined the US economic outlook as being 'strong', from being just 'solid'.  In summary, the latest Fed decision was not dovish, unsurprisingly hawkish, and did not impact appetite in US bonds which got a boost from the Treasury's announcement of a slightly lower-than-expected quarterly refunding auction size for the 3, 10 and 30-year maturity bonds next week. Cherry on top, the US Treasury said that they now expect one more step up in quarterly issuances for the long-term debt, whereas the expectation was multiple more step ups.   The US 10-year yield sank to 4.70% after the Fed decision and Treasury's much-awaited issuance calendar reveal, the 30-year yield fell to 4.90%. The fact that the US will borrow slightly less than previously thought and slightly less on the long-end of the curve doesn't mean that the fiscal outlook improved. Though lower-than-expected, the $776bn that the US Treasury is planning to borrow this quarter is a record for the last 3 months of a year. And the net interest payments on the US federal debt are rising at an eye-watering speed. In numbers, the federal debt rose more than a third since the end of 2019, and the interest expenses on that debt rose by almost 40%. That's a detail for Janet Yellen who thinks that the surge in US yields is explained by the positive economic outlook, but the market won't allow the Treasury to borrow like its pockets have no bottom if the Fed is not part of it.   Bad news, good news the sharp decline in October ISM manufacturing PMI and the softer-than-expected ADP read helped boosting sentiment in US Treasuries, as they somehow softened the otherwise strong US economic outlook. The JOLTS data unexpectedly rose but no one was out looking for reasons to sell Treasuries yesterday, so that basically went unheard. The official US jobs data is due Friday and any strength in NFP, or wages could reverse the optimism that the US economic growth will... slow. And as bad news is sometimes good news for the market, the S&P500 rebounded more than 1% and closed the session at a spitting distance from the all important 200-DMA, while the rate-sensitive Nasdaq jumped almost 1.80%.   AMD, Qualcomm gain, Apple to report On the individual level, AMD jumped almost 10% yesterday. Even though the company gave a soft guidance for Q4, they said that they expect to sell more than $2bn worth of AI chips next year. That's a lot, that's more than a third of the actual revenue they make. Qualcomm jumped nearly 4% in afterhours trading, as the world's largest seller of smartphone chips gave a better-than-expected prediction for this quarter, saying that the inventory glut in mobile-phone industry may be receding.   Today, Apple will post its Q3 earnings, after the bell. We have reservations regarding the results as the iPhone15 sales are not as brilliant as investors hoped they would be, and Huawei is apparently eating Apple's market share in China. Apple's overall revenue is seen down by around 3%. Ouch. The good news is that the morose expectations could be easier to beat. Otherwise, we could see Apple tank below the $170 per share, into the bearish consolidation zone, and become vulnerable to deeper losses.  BoE not to raise rates, but its inflation tolerance The Bank of England (BoE) is the next major central bank to announce its rate decision today, and the Brits are not expected to raise the interest rates at today's MPC meeting, but they are expected to increase their tolerance faced with above 2% inflation, instead. That's not good for central bank credibility, even less so when the BoE's credibility is not at its best since the start of this tightening cycle. If investors sense that the BoE will let inflation run hot, by lack of choice, sterling could take a significant hit.   Gold and oil  Appetite in gold eases as Israelian attacks are perceived as being less aggressive than what they could be. De-pricing of Mid-East risks could send the price of an ounce to, or below the 200-DMA, near the $1933 level. Upside risks prevail, but fresh news should gradually lose their shocker impact and the $2000 per ounce level will likely attract top sellers more than anything else.   US crude rebounded near the $80pb yesterday, as the decline toward the psychological $80pb level brought in dip buyers. We could reasonably expect the US crude to correct toward $85pb as geopolitical tensions loom, and supply remains at jeopardy.    

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