apple

Summary:  Our Chinese equity baskets were down around 5% last week as China is finding it increasingly more difficult to leave its strict Covid zero policies behind as case figures are surging again and protests are erupting across several locations in the country including the main manufacturing hub for Apple and its iPhone. At the other end of the spectrum the defence basket is continuing its momentum up 3.8% last week. The performance means that the defence basket could get closer to end the year as the best performing theme basket this year. The biggest gainers in the defence basket last week were Rolls-Royce and Leonardo. China continues to be out of sync with the world The biggest outliers last week among our equity theme baskets were our two Chinese equity baskets declining 4.5% and 5% respectively as rising Covid case figures dented the narrative that China can smoothly reopen their economy. Already last week there were increasing protests at different locations in

Russia-Ukraine Conflict And The US Reaction Act On Markets

S&P 500’s Rally – Record Breaking Advance Or a Bull Trap?

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 20.10.2021 16:32
Stocks prices got even higher yesterday, as investors reacted to corporate earnings releases. Will the S&P 500 reach the new record high? The S&P 500 index gained 0.74% on Tuesday, Oct 19 after breaking above the 4,500 price level. The broad stock market’ s gauge went closer to its Sep. 2 record high of 4,545.85. The quarterly corporate earnings releases are positive for the market and they are only starting to gain traction. Today we will get the TSLA earnings release and tomorrow INTC, among others. The market seems overbought in the short-term. However, there have been no confirmed negative signals so far. The support level is now at 4,485-4,500, marked by the yesterday’s daily gap up of 4,488.75-4,496.41 and the previous resistance level. The next support level is at 4,440-4,450, marked by the last Friday’s daily gap up of 4,439.73-4,447.69. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,525-4,555, marked by the previous local highs and the early September topping pattern. The S&P 500 extends its advance after breaking above a month-long downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Let’s take a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average chart. The blue-chip index broke above its over month-long downward trend line on Thursday, and on Friday it accelerated up above the 35,000 mark. Now, the nearest important resistance level is now at 35,500, marked by some previous local highs. The resistance level is also at the record high level of 35,631.19, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple’s Relative Weakness Apple stock weighs around 6.1% in the S&P 500 index, so it is important for the whole broad stock market picture. The stock broke above its short-term resistance level of around $144-145. The nearest important resistance level is at $148-150. The stock is relatively weaker than the broad stock market, as it’s still trading below the July-August local highs. Futures Contract Gets Closer to the Record High Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. On Friday, the market broke above its downward trend line and it broke above its previous local high of around 4,470. The nearest important resistance level is now at around 4,520-4,550, marked by the early September topping pattern. In our opinion no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index further extended its uptrend yesterday, as it broke above the 4,500 level. It’s getting closer to the Sep. 2 record high of 4,545.85. The market seems overbought in the short term. However, the coming quarterly corporate earnings releases (today it’s TSLA, and INTC on Thursday, among others) are supporting buyers here. Today the market is expected to open virtually flat and we may see an intraday consolidation along the 4,500 level or a downward correction. The risk/reward perspective seems less favorable right now and no positions are currently justified. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 extended its short-term uptrend on Tuesday again, as it broke above the 4,500 level. We are waiting for a more favorable risk/reward situation and will probably enter a new speculative short position in the near term. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak, Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
The story of Amazon and Apple

The story of Amazon and Apple

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 29.10.2021 12:51
Amazon and Apple disappoint investors as supply issues persist Yesterday's aftermarket announcement from the two mega cap giants surprised investors as both Apple and Amazon showed lower than expected results and disappointing figures. Both companies missed their revenue expectations and indicated supply chain issues as key issues facing their business, while highlighting the need to be cautious as the situation is resolved moving forward. Both stocks dropped over 3% in aftermarket trading and impacted US futures, which shortly before that managed to reach new all time highs, boosted in part by the positive performance seen from other mega caps throughout the week. While US indices hover around key levels, It will be important to see how they react to today's earnings from major oil companies (Exxon, Chevron) as further disappointment could lead to an even larger correction heading into the weekend.  Euro holds steady after mixed European GDP data  Today's GDP data from Europe proved to be mixed, with the French reading surprising to the upside while Spanish figures missed expectations. Data from Germany and Italy also was mixed as the Italian economy, just like the French one, grew much faster than expected in the July-September period while the German economy grew slower than expected. This comes after yesterday's disappointing US GDP figures which showed a below expected growth of 2% and highlighted the ongoing issues facing the economy in this stage of the post pandemic recovery. These GDP reports, along with inflation data continue to become increasingly noteworthy as central banks across the world are using these measures to potentially determine whether or not there is an immediate need for intervention as well as influencing future policy. Download our Mobile Trading App:   Google Play   App Store
Euro Bounces Back, but The Turkish Lira Remains Unloved

Euro Bounces Back, but The Turkish Lira Remains Unloved

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 18.11.2021 15:17
Overview:  The US dollar's sharp upside momentum stalled yesterday near JPY115 and after the euro met (and surpassed) a key retracement level slightly below $1.1300.  Led by the Antipodean currencies today, the greenback is mostly trading with a heavier bias.  Among the majors, helped by a steadying of US yields, the yen is soft.  In the emerging market space, the Turkish lira continues its headlong plunge while the yuan softened and the Mexican peso is off.  Hungary's central bank surprised with a 70 bp hike in the one-week deposit rate.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is posting a small gain through the European morning.  Disappointing tech results in China (Baidu and Bilibili) weighed on Chinese shares, but most markets in the region fell but Australia and Taiwan.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is struggling to extend the six-day advance.  US futures are also a little firmer.  After yesterday's four basis point pullback, the US 10-year yield is little changed near 1.58%.  European yields are 1-2 bp lower.  Gold remains within Tuesday's range (~$1850-$1877), but the moment seen earlier last week has faded, and the yellow metal is trading choppily in a consolidative phase.  The prospect of a coordinated sale of oil after China's announced it would tap its reserves for the second time saw the January WTI contract fall to $76.45, its lowest level since early October. Still, the price has stabilized in the European morning around $77 a barrel.  The benchmark European natural gas contract (Netherlands) has extended yesterday's pullback.  It settled a little below 75 euros last week, and after two days of declines, it is above 92 euros.  Iron ore is also falling for a second session and is now lower on the week.  Note that it settled October a little above $104 and is now around $86.40. Copper is lower for the fourth consecutive session.  It is trading around $424, off $20.5 this week.   Asia Pacific  Japan is expected to unveil the much-awaited supplemental budget tomorrow.  Prime Minister Kishida will get one bite of the proverbial apple, and he is expected to go big.  Talk of the size of the overall package has risen in recent days.  The Nikkei seemed to suggest a JPY79 trillion (~$690 bln) effort, while others report something on the magnitude of JPY56 trillion.  Still, it is recognized that part of the budget will include funds that were earmarked under previous budgets, which have not been spent.  The clear water is seen around JPY32 trillion.  Japan is one of the few countries that will provide new fiscal support.   New Zealand's central bank meets next week.  It is widely expected to hike rates for the second time in the cycle.   The swaps market has 200 bp of tightening priced in for the next 12 months.  The cash rate stands at 50 bp.  Earlier today, the central bank reported that the two-year inflation expectations (business survey)  rose to 2.96% in Q4 from 2.27% in Q3.  It is the highest in a decade.  The one-year expectation rose to 3.7% from 3.02%.  Still, with other countries slower to raise rates, a 50 bp move may not be necessary.  The Kiwi rose almost 4% last month and has given back nearly half so far in November.  Separately, the Philippines and Indonesia central banks met and left rates steady as expected.   The dollar posted a key reversal against the yen yesterday.  It made a new high for the move, a few pips below JPY115.00, and proceeded to sell-off and close (slightly) below Tuesday's low.  However, follow-through selling has been limited, and the greenback is trading firmly but may be absorbing sales related to the $1.34 bln in options in the JPY114.20-JPY114.25 area that expire today.  The Australian dollar initially extended its losses to almost $0.7250, where a A$575 mln option expires today. However, since early in the Asian session, it has posted corrective upticks and looks set to challenge yesterday's high and five-day moving average a little above $0.7300.   The Chinese yuan appears to have begun consolidating.  It remains in the range set on Tuesday that saw the dollar trade roughly between CNY6.3670 and CNY6.3965.  The small gain is the third this week.  The PBOC fix was at CNY6.3803, a bit firmer compared with expectations (CNY6.3786 in the Bloomberg survey) than seen recently.  Note that there is a $1 bln option at CNY6.3830 that expires today.   Europe The auto industry in Europe remained under pressure last month, though the US reported its first increase in sales in six months.  New car registration in Europe, including the UK, is a proxy for sales.  They tumbled by slightly more than 30% year-over-year in October.  This is considerably weaker than expected and is the poorest since May 2020.  The shortage of semiconductors is the likely culprit, and there are some signs of improvement.  The EC will propose modest tweaks in rules about how funds outside of its borders (UK) can be managed while avoiding more dramatic changes.   Draft proposals call for at least two full-time senior managers in the EU and for regulators to be notified when most of their assets are managed outside the EU.  These seem quite minor and unlikely to disrupt the UK fund business.  Earlier this month, the EU Commissioner for Financial Services indicated that temporary waivers would be granted to allow EU banks and money managers to clear trades in the UK. Meanwhile, the dispute over fishing appears to be worsening (Denmark complaining, not just France), and the UK continues to threaten to invoke Article 16.  Former Prime Minister Blair says he will propose a solution to the dispute over the Northern Ireland Protocol in the coming days.  Hungary delivered a 30 bp hike in the base rate earlier this week, which now stands at 2.10%.  It warned that it could make a separate decision on its one-week deposit rate.  It did so today, hiking it 70 bp to 2.50%.  It is a hawkish move that sent the forint higher.  Separately, as widely expected, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey cut the one-week repo rate 100 bps to 15%. As a result, the lira is weaker for the eighth consecutive session.  The lira's weakness not only fuels inflation but also will challenge companies and banks with foreign exchange exposure.  The dollar finished last month near TRY9.60 and after the rate hike, pushed above TRY10.97 before stabilizing.   The euro overshot the (61.8%) retracement target of the rally that took it from near $1.0640 in March 2020 to high on January 6, around $1.2350.  That retracement target was about $1.1290, and the euro fell to around $1.1265 yesterday. It recovered to new session highs early in North America yesterday (~$1.1330), leaving bullish hammer candlestick, and follow-through buying lifted it to $1.1345 today.  The combination of higher inflation and stronger retail sales this week have helped sterling to recover.  It had traded near $1.3350 at the end of last week and has barely traded below $1.34 this week.  Indeed, sterling is rising today for the fifth consecutive session, the longest advance in nearly seven months.  It poked above $1.35, where an option for about GBP345 mln will expire today.  A convincing move above $1.3515 could signal another cent advance.  The euro slipped to below GBP0.8385 today before recovering.  It is testing the GBP0.8400, which holds options for 1.1 bln euros that also expires today.   America Leave aside the gaffes by President Biden over Taiwan.  Bloomberg counts four such verbal blunders that have required official walk back or explanation or clarification.  Reports indicate that Biden probed Xi about oil sales.  China has intervened in the commodities (industrial metals) and crude oil market recently.  Today it indicated it will provide more oil from its strategic reserves.  The September is action 7.1 mln barrels, according to reports, and privately sold more.  It is unclear whether today's sales were planned or grew out of the "virtual summit."  Still, it puts the ball back into the US court.  If the US does not sell or lend oil from its strategic reserves, it will look bad after China's move.  On the other hand, its own agency (EIA) projects that it may not be needed as oil will be in oversupply shortly.  Moreover, the pain for consumers is coming from gasoline prices, not oil per se.  Drawing down strategic reserves may not help the gasoline market.  Apparently, Japan has been approached by the US about coordinating the release of oil, though Europe was not.  The US reports weekly initial jobless claims today.  They have fallen for six consecutive weeks, and at 267k, it is the lowest since the pandemic struck.   That said, at the end of 2019, there were below 220k.  The Philadelphia and Kansas City Feds publish their November survey results.  Both surprised last month, with the former on the downside and the latter on the upside.  This time it may be the other way around, with the Philly survey showing strength and the KC survey softer.  Canada reports its monthly portfolio flow data ahead of tomorrow's retail sales report.  Mexico and Brazil have light economic calendars.   Canada's Prime Minister Trudeau and Mexico's President AMLO visit Washington today for the North America's Leaders Summit.  There is tension among the "three amigos."  The Build Back Better US initiative contains several elements that favor American producers. A key one is that substantial tax break for Americans buying electric vehicles if they are made in the US.  This would seem to put Canada and Mexico at a disadvantage, given the integration of the auto sector on a continental basis. Mexico and Canada are also concerned that the Biden Administration's interpretation of the domestic content requirement in the USMCA treaty is also narrow and puts them at a disadvantage.   Canada is also concerned about the pipelines after Biden nixed the Keystone Pipeline in one of his first acts in office, and the Line 5 pipeline is being challenged by Michigan.  The US, and to a less extent, Canada, is worried about the efforts by AMLO to increase the power of the state sector energy companies (oil and electricity), deterring private sector efforts.  The US may try pressing against this on environmental grounds.  Climate and immigration are reportedly on the top of today's agenda.  The US dollar reversed higher against the Canadian dollar on Tuesday, posting an outside up day.  Follow-through buying yesterday lifted the greenback a little above CAD1.2620.  It ticked ever so slightly higher today but has come back offered.  Support is seen in the CAD1.2555-CAD1.2575 area.  The $1.04 bln option at CAD1.25 that expires today is too far away to be impactful. Meanwhile, the US dollar remains within Tuesday's range against the Mexican peso (~MXN20.56-MXN20.85).  This range looks set to hold today.   Disclaimer
Ahead Of The US CPI, Speaking Of Crude Oil And Metals - Saxo Market Call

Market Quick Take - November 25, 2021

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 25.11.2021 09:49
Macro 2021-11-25 08:45 6 minutes to read Summary:  Asian stocks and US equity futures traded higher overnight as traders weighed Chinese efforts to support its economy, and after solid US economic data combined with persistent price pressures added to market concerns, the Fed may speed up its removal of policy support to curb inflation. In Treasuries, shorter maturity advanced while longer dated retreated after failing to break key resistance. The dollar trades close to a 16-month high while the crude oil market held steady with focus on next week's OPEC+ meeting. US cash markets are closed for Thanksgiving today with limited price activity expected. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - yesterday’s less bad than feared PCE inflation for October reversed momentum in US interest rates and pulled equities and especially US technology stocks higher. With the recent Powell and Brainard statements it is clear, that the Fed will put more weight on inflation than employment as we go into 2022, and thus the pressure will remain on interest rates and high duration assets such as technology stocks. Nasdaq 100 futures sit at 16,414 in early European trading and will have to overcome the 50% retracement level at 16,435 in order to continue the upward momentum. USDJPY – while US equities and US interest rates turned around yesterday, the reaction in USDJPY was less muted ending the sessions higher underscoring the strong USD momentum. The outlook is still predominantly a question of “will it or won’t it sustain a break above 115.00” which depends on whether the US 10-year yield can push into new highs for the year above the 1.75% level. Gold (XAUUSD) trades higher after once again managing to find support in the $1780 area. Another strong read on US inflation, this time the Fed’s favored PCE Deflator, helped flatten the US yield curve with the yield on short dated maturities rising while US ten-year notes ended lower after failing to break key resistance in the 1.7% area. The big price slump below $1830 this week was primarily caused by long liquidation from funds who had been rushing into gold before and after the recent CPI shock. Gold’s short-term ability to bounce will mostly depend on whether the washout has triggered a big enough reduction of recently established and now loss-making positions. From a technical perspective, a break above $1816 is the minimum requirement for calm to emerge. Crude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSJAN21) has settled into a nervous wait-and-see mode with focus on the Dec 2 OPEC+ meeting after its advisory board said the US-led coordinated release of reserves may drive a crude oil surplus early next year. This comes after the alliance called the move unjustified given current conditions and as a result, they may opt to reduce future production hikes when they meet on Tuesday. Yesterday’s EIA report was price supportive with crude oil stocks only seeing a small 1 million barrels increase despite a sharp drop in exports and another injection from strategic reserves. US treasuries (SHY, IEF, TLT). Yesterday, we received a thorough list of data, which might have just given more reasons to the Fed to accelerate the pace of tapering during the next FOMC meeting. The PCE index rose to 5%, the highest since 1981 while inflation expectations for the next 5 years stuck to 3%. Jobless claims fell to the lowest since 1969, indicating that jobs are recovering fast. Lastly, the FOMC minutes showed that members are beginning to worry about less transitory inflation, provoking rate hikes expectations to accelerate by the end of the day. However, due to the looming holiday, US Treasuries remained muted. 5-year UST futures this morning are down during the Asian session despite low liquidity, indicating that sentiment is bearish. Friday’s trading session will also be affected by low liquidity due to the Thanksgiving schedule. We will have a better picture on Monday, but it looks likely yields will continue their rise and the yield curve flattening. German Bunds (IS0L). The new German government unveiled a governing coalition deal. Among the extensive list of policies, bond investors should focus on an accommodative fiscal policy for 2022 and 2023, the beginning of a “decade of investment” and the rejection of a new lockdown amid a record rise of Covid cases. More spending translates to higher Bund yields. However, yields remained mutes as Europe becomes the new epicenter of Covid-19 infections. Yet, Bunds remain vulnerable, and rates might move higher as US Treasury yields resume their rise. Italian BTPS (BTP10). Italian government bonds remained in check as governments in Europe move forward to impose new restrictions due to a rise Covid-19 infections. Yet, investors should remain vigilant as the PEPP program will still end in March. To weaken sentiment in BTPS further is also the news that President Mattarella is going to vacate his position in January leaving a political vacuum. Parties are pushing Draghi to il Quirinale to get rid of him and go to early elections. If that were to happen, the stability that Italian BTPS enjoyed since Draghi entered in Italian politics will vanish provoking a fast widening of the BTPS-Bund spread. What is going on? Europe’s Covid problem is deteriorating, and with the region now accounting for almost 60% of global Covid deaths, the risk of more lockdowns and restrictions continue to rise. German business climate in November slumped slightly more than expected to its lowest in five months as local companies grapple with supply bottlenecks and the mentioned fourth wave of COVID-19. Fed officials at their last meeting were open to removing policy support at a faster pace to rein in inflation. Since then, data have shown accelerating price pressure, not least after the Fed’s favorite gauge, the PCE Deflator rose 5% YoY, the fastest pace in three decades. "Various participants" noted the FOMC should be ready to tweak the tapering pace and raise the target range for the Fed funds rate sooner than currently expected if inflation continues to run higher, minutes showed. By now, the market has priced in a total of three rate hikes for 2022. EU gas trades higher again today, reaching $30.7/MMBtu (€93.5/GWh) today in response to rising winter demand, low power production from wind farms and increased competition from Asia which is ramping up its LNG imports. Sky-high day ahead prices for power adding to the pain with some countries approaching record highs. Power plants are burning more coal which is cheaper and more profitable and it has helped drive the emissions future (CFIZ1) to a new all-time high this week above €72.5 per tons. What are we watching next? The USD and US interest rates will make or break equities - it is clear that interest rate sensitivity is picking up as a theme as US interest rates are trading just below the two recent local highs in March and October. The USD is strong which puts pressure on emerging markets and any indications that the USD is losing momentum will improve flows into emerging market equities and bonds. Black Friday consumer spending – retail sales during Black Friday tomorrow and over the weekend is often a good barometer on consumer confidence and causes big moves in retailers the following week as their weekend sales are announced. Earnings Watch – with Thanksgiving today in the US market activity will be significantly lower than normal. Only earnings release today is from Norwegian Adevinta, which has already reported with operating income in Q3 coming in a bit lower than consensus. Thursday: Adevinta Friday: Meituan, Pinduoduo Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0700 – German Q3 GDP 0700 – German GfK Consumer Confidence   Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
Apple (AAPL) Stock Price and Forecast: Can Apple take a bite out of $200 before year end?

Apple (AAPL) Stock Price and Forecast: Can Apple take a bite out of $200 before year end?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 09.12.2021 15:54
Apple stock powers on to more all-time highs on Wednesday. AAPL shares breach and close above $175. Is $200 a conceivable year-end target for Apple stock? Apple (AAPL) stock just continues to power on like a juggernaut. A powerful combination of momentum and fundamentals is pushing this one higher. Despite the market sell-off last week and earlier this week due to Omicron, Apple still found buyers. The stock has both defensive and offensive qualities. "Defensive" in terms of the huge cash pile it sits on and "offensive" in its entire business. The stock added another 2% on Wednesday, closing at $175.08. Apple is now up over 7% in just over a week, impressive when you consider the market background. Apple (AAPL) chart, 15-minute Apple (AAPL) stock news Apple was granted a motion to delay App Store changes that had been in the offing after the Epic Games ruling. Apple is appealing the so-called "Fortnite" issue as Epic Games is the creator of Fortnite. The ruling meant Apple would have to change some rules in order to allow links to outside payment systems. Because Apple is appealing the "Fortnite" ruling, it does not now have to make any App Store changes until that appeal decision. This likely means a multi-year-long reprieve for the App Store as the appeal will take time. A definite positive in our view. "Apple has demonstrated, at minimum, that its appeal raises serious questions on the merits of the district court’s determination," the 9th Circuit Court wrote on Wednesday-Reuters. Separately, Apple has lost more engineers from its car project to startup companies in the space, according to a report from Bloomberg. Apple (AAPL) stock forecast No resistance is in sight, obviously, when AAPL at record highs. The pivot level for short-term support is $167. Here we have some volume from last week, and also it is a breakout level for the move this week. The 9-day moving average will also likely track to this level today. Below the medium-term pivot is at $157, so Apple remains bullish above there. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) remain bullish, and volume has been strong behind this recent rally, indicating its health. AAPL 1-day chart
Will Stocks Continue Their Rally?

Will Stocks Continue Their Rally?

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 13.12.2021 15:37
  The S&P 500 index got back above the 4,700 level on Friday after gaining almost 1%. The only way is up now? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch today's video. Nasdaq 100 Remains Close to the 16,400 Level Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index got back to the 16,400 level last week. It is the nearest important resistance level, marked by some previous local highs. Tech stocks remain relatively weaker, as the Nasdaq 100 is still well below the Nov. 22 record high of 16,764.85. Conclusion The S&P 500 index will likely slightly extend its last week’s advances this morning. However we may see a short-term profit-taking action at some point. There have been no confirmed short-term negative signals so far, and we may see an attempt at getting back to the late November record high. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 is expected to open slightly higher this morning but we may see a consolidation above the 4,700 level. Our short-position is very close a stop-loss level, and we’ll close it if it breaks above it again. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Emini S&P December retests first support at 4665/55

Emini S&P December retests first support at 4665/55

Jason Sen Jason Sen 14.12.2021 10:48
Video analysis:  Emini S&P December retests first support at 4665/55 which has held each time it has been tested over the past 4 days. Nasdaq December dips to strong support at 16120/09 & is holding. Longs need stops below 16060. A break lower is a sell signal. Emini Dow Jones December reached targets 36000 & 36100 but then collapsed to first support at 35800/700. This level is revised to 35700/600 this morning. Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P longs at first support at 4665/55 target 4690, perhaps as far as 4710/15, hit this morning. We continue higher looking for 4725/29 before a retest of the all time high at 4740. Obviously a break above here is likely to start the next leg higher in the bull trend. First support again at 4665/55. Longs need stops below 4645. Further losses meet strong support at 4630/20. Longs need stops below 4610. Nasdaq December holding strong support at 16120/090 but longs need stops below 16060. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 16000 & strong support at 15900/850. Longs need stops below 15800. Longs at 16120/090 target 16200/230. If we continue higher look for 16300, 16350 & perhaps as far as resistance again at the 2 week highs of 16430/455. Shorts need stops above 16480. A break higher targets 16500/510 then 16600/620 before a retest of the all time high at 16767. Emini Dow Jones December first support at 35700/600. Longs need stops below 35500. Next target & minor support at 35300/200. Longs need stops below 35100. Longs at first support at 35700/600 target 35900/36000 then 36100/120. If we continue higher look for 36250 before a retest of the all time high at 36466. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
APPL holds on tight, even if the rest struggle to

APPL holds on tight, even if the rest struggle to

FXStreet News FXStreet News 10.01.2022 15:59
Apple (AAPL) iPhone turned 15 yesterday, January 9. Apple (AAPL) shares so far have not been in a celebratory mood. Apple (AAPL) stock still languishing at around $170 as tech suffers. Apple shares closed out Monday just in the green, registering a modest gain of 0.1% to close at $172.17. While tech names have struggled so far in 2022 due to higher yields and an aggressive Fed, apple remains poised near all-time highs. Apple stock chart, 15 minute Apple (AAPL) stock news The iPhone splashed onto the global stage 15 years ago with a humourous launch by then CEO Steve Jobs. He has actually announced that Apple was launching three products. A widescreen iPod with touchscreen, a breakthrough interest browser, and a phone. Eventually, the audience saw the joke and that this was actually what the iPhone was, three products rolled into one. The modern iteration of the smartphone was born and the industry would never be the same again. Nor would many other industries who benefitted enormously from handheld internet access. Social media companies such as Twitter (TWTR) and others owe a lot to the smartphone as do many online retailers. While Apple (AAPL) is the biggest company in the world it has dragged many other tech titans along with it. Apple (AAPL) stock forecast Apple has now broken below the key short-term moving averages, the 9 and 21-day. We have also put in place a double top which is a bearish formation. The triger is breaking the valley support at $167.46 which gives a target of $15 lower at $152. Along the way there will be support at $157. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and relative strength index (RSI) are now in bearish territoy. The MACD crossed over and the RSI is below 50, with both trending lower. Apple should outperform other high growth tech names but it is not immune from contagion. Apple (AAPL) stock chart, daily
Hotels increase their accommodation base

Hotels increase their accommodation base

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 21.01.2022 11:08
PRESS RELEASE Warsaw, 17.01.2022 The growing interest in domestic tourism is conducive to the development of accommodation facilities in resorts. Interesting city hotels are also opening. The current year should bring stabilization in the hotel industry as more countries move from treating the covid as pandemic to endemic - Speaking of the current shape of the hotel sector, it is difficult to treat the market as a whole. Today we are dealing with two markets. The first of them - the city hotel market, considered safer before the pandemic, due to a more balanced structure of guests, as well as less seasonality than the second hotel market, that is tourist hotels. Currently, it is the latter market that is doing much better and is recovering from losses. City hotels, on the other hand, largely focus on maintaining the current profitability, however, in the fall, there was a recovery in demand from business guests and MICE. The results that the industry finished 2021 with are far from those before the market changes, but last year we could already see a recovery in demand and average prices on the market - says Katarzyna Tencza, Associate Director Investment & Hospitality at Walter Herz. Although there were fewer foreign guests, the hunger for travel and the uncertainty associated with overseas travel meant that in July and August last year, about 190 thousand more Poles stayed in hotels than in the summer of 2019. Demand accumulated in the summer as a result of, among others, the restrictions that hotels were subject to in the winter and spring months. The summer season in the resorts was very successful. The beginning of autumn in the resorts brought a sustained high demand for leisure and group stays. In November and December, the situation was clearly worse, with the exception of the holiday season, which was another opportunity for hotels in holiday destinations to increase revenues. - Good results obtained by resort facilities during the summer do not mean that the entire year 2021 can be considered successful by the industry. The turnover in the entire sector was lower than that achieved before the pandemic. The year 2022 should bring a continuation of the recovery in demand in the city markets - says Katarzyna Tencza. Ownership changes Despite the difficulties faced by hotels, so far we have not dealt with many transactions on our market. Especially that the largest market players mostly refrain from acquiring assets in this segment. The mass bankruptcies which were to happen in 2021, did not take place. Hotels for sale are not very attractive to investors due to location or other factors. The transactions took place mainly on regional markets. For example, NK Rysy company purchased Hotel Rysy, located in the very center of Zakopane. The unfinished Ewerdin hotel in Swinoujscie was also sold. In the second half of the year, a 100-room hotel located in the center of Cracow was also sold. We could also observe transactions concerning hotel facilities intended for other functions. Orbis has signed a preliminary agreement for the sale of the Ibis Hotel in Kielce, which is to be transformed into a different function facility. The deserted Astoria hotel in Klodzko was sold to a developer from Cracow, who after the renovation, will probably offer retail and service space. Polkomtel bought the Ossa hotel located in Ossa near Rawa Mazowiecka, in order to build a rehabilitation center. Polski Holding Hotelowy is also active on the market, which carries out the process of consolidation of facilities providing hotel services, owned by state-owned companies. PHH concluded a conditional agreement for the purchase of Geovita SA, part of the Polish Oil and Gas Mining Group, which manages several recreational facilities throughout Poland. The holding has also signed a conditional agreement with PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna for the purchase of ten hotels and facilities belonging to Elbest, one of its companies that owns hotels, including in Krynica, MiÄ™dzyzdroje, Myczkowce nad Solina as well as facilities in Krasnobrod and Szklarska Poreba. Polski Holding Hotelowy has also signed conditional agreements for the purchase of a controlling stake in Interferie and shares in Interferie Medical SPA, companies belonging to the KGHM Group, thanks to which it will receive another six properties. New, high-class facilities in resorts In 2021, holiday resorts expanded their offer of high-quality hotel facilities. The recent openings are, of course, the result of investment processes initiated before the market turmoil. Tourist accommodation resources in the country increased, among others, thanks to the opening of the Radisson Resort hotel in Kolobrzeg with 209 rooms and an aquapark, the five-star Crystal Mountain hotel in WisÅ‚a with almost 500 rooms and an aquapark, and the 124-room Tremonti Ski&Bike Resort complex in Karpacz. Despite the difficulties, the hotel market continues to expand its resource base. New seaside hotel investments, as in previous years, are mostly located on the line between Swinoujscie and Kolobrzeg. Hotel investments in this region are mostly condo hotels. The largest projects include the Wave MiÄ™dzyzdroje Resort & SPA hotel with 393 suites, Aqua Resort in Miedzyzdroje with 300 rooms and an aquapark, 435-room Radisson Blu Resort in Miedzywodzie, Hotel GoÅ‚Ä™biewski in Pobierowo with approximately 1400 rooms, PINEA Resort & Apartments in Pobierowo with 138 apartments, 266-room Mövenpick in Kolobrzeg, Baltic Wave in Kolobrzeg which is to offer 468 suites. Polish mountains offer interesting hotel investments, also largely sold in the condo system, Among the most interesting projects are Elements Hotel & SPA in Swieradow Zdroj with 289 rooms, Sanssouci Karpacz MGallery Hotel Collection with 110 rooms, Movenpick in Karpacz with 126 rooms, Mövenpick Zakopane Imperial Hotel with 130 rooms, Infinity Zieleniec Ski & SPA in Duszniki Zdroj with 328 apartments, and Linden Hotel & Resort in Szklarska Poreba with 137 rooms. New city hotels - Hotel chains previously focused mainly on municipal investments, are now very active also in the holiday destinations. In addition, smaller regional cities are gaining in importance. Unfortunately, high prices of investment plots and fierce competition in the fight for land from investors developing apartments for rent and dormitories, as well as rising construction costs make it more and more difficult to budget for the new hotel projects. Banks are still very cautious about financing hotel investments - informs Katarzyna Tencza. The investment interest in the sector is mainly in tourist destinations, but urban locations can also offer visitors new, interesting facilities. Last year saw the opening of such facilities as the ibis Styles Kraków Centrum hotel with 259 rooms, NYX Hotel Warsaw of the Leonardo Hotels chain with 331 rooms, located in the Varso Place complex near the Warsaw Central Station, Tulip Residences Warsaw Targowa hotel with 110 units, and Mercure Katowice Centrum with 268 rooms. In addition, the 195-room Mercure Kraków Fabryczna City hotel appeared on the Cracow market, 300-room AC Hotel by Marriott Kraków and Courtyard by Marriott Szczecin City hotel was opened in the Posejdon complex in Szczecin. It offers134 rooms. In WrocÅ‚aw, guests were welcomed by the Jazz aparthotel with 62 rooms and Hotel Herbal with 66 rooms, and at the end of last year, Dwór Uphagena Arche Hotel GdaÅ„sk with 145 rooms was opened in Gdansk. The Olsztyn market welcomed the 105-room Hampton by Hilton Olsztyn hotel. This year, the city hotel market will be supplied with a dozen or so new facilities under the brands of international and Polish brands. Most of them are hotels for which investment decisions were made before the pandemic. The Warsaw market is to be supplied, among others, by 238-room Focus Hotel Premium Warszawa located in Mokotow, 192-room Staybridge Suites Warszawa Ursynów, 448-room Royal Tulip Warsaw Apartments in Unique Tower building on Grzybowska Street, 96-room Autograph Collection by Marriott International in Warsaw's Old Town, or 66-room Flaner Hotel WorldHotels Crafted Collection. In Cracow, a 216-room Hyatt Place Kraków hotel, 125-room Autograph Collection by Marriott International, 116-room Curio Collection by Hilton Hotel Saski Kraków, 53-room Garamond Boutique Hotel Tribute Portfolio, and 173-room Hampton by Hilton Krakow Airport hotel are to open next year. A 130-room B&B hotel is to welcome guests in Lublin, and a 122-room Hampton by Hilton BiaÅ‚ystok is to be commissioned in Bialystok. The 201-room Q Hotel Plus WrocÅ‚aw Bielany will open in Wroclaw and the former Sofitel Wroclaw Old Town hotel with 205 rooms will reopen under the Wyndham brand. More challenges The rapidly changing market conditions mean that the industry is facing new challenges. The greatest difficulties that hotels will have to grapple with in the near future are the rising costs of living and the lack of employees. Problems are also related to the recovery of demand from corporate guests, the MICE sector and foreign tourists. Rises in energy, gas and garbage disposal prices, and rising labor costs, are making it difficult for the sector to recover. Growing inflation driving the costs of maintaining facilities is forcing a rise in accommodation prices. We can expect an increase in accommodation prices in the upcoming months, both in holiday destinations and urban locations. About Walter Herz Walter Herz company is a leading Polish entity which has been operating in the commercial real estate sector across the country. For nine years, the company has been providing comprehensive and strategic investment consulting services for tenants, investors and real estate owners. It provides extensive support for both public and private sector. Walter Herz experts assist clients in finding and leasing space, and give advice when it comes to investment and hotel projects. In addition to its headquarters in Warsaw, the company operates in Cracow and the Tri-City. Walter Herz has created Tenant Academy, first project in the country, supporting and educating commercial real estate tenants across Poland, with on-site courses held in the largest cities in the country. In order to ensure the highest ethical level of services provided, the agency introduced the Code of Good Practice.
Swissquote MarketTalk: A Look At XAUUSD, Swiss Secrets, Tesla And More

APPL and MSFT and Their Reports, What About Nasdaq and S&P 500?

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 25.01.2022 14:19
The S&P500 and Nasdaq dived 4% before reversing losses and closing the session in the green. But yesterday’s rebound doesn’t mean the equity markets are out of the woods just yet. On the contrary, the rising volatility hints at further market turbulence ahead, as investors are worried about the Fed tightening, the Ukrainian war threat, and some unachieved goals on Biden’s political agenda as the Build Back Better & Chinese trade deficit. The FOMC starts its two-day meeting today, yet given the bloodbath in equity markets, the policymakers could refrain from reviving the Fed hawks. But even with an eventually softer Fed statement, and some market correction, there is a slim chance we see meme stocks, SPAC deals, or highly speculative names doing well in an environment of tighter Fed liquidity. There is, on the other hand, a better chance for companies like Apple and Microsoft to navigate through a high turbulence market. So, the Fed tightening will certainly support the reflation trade, but it will more importantly trigger a flight to quality. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:21 Market update: S&P500, Nasdaq shattered 2:47 … but UBS is positive 4:39 If you buy the dip, make sure to buy the right stocks 6:01 Fed meeting 7:09 Microsoft, Apple earnings 7:37 Challenges beyond the Fed tightening 8:53 Safe haven roundup: USD, gold & Swiss franc Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
Swissquote MarketTalk: A Look At XAUUSD, Swiss Secrets, Tesla And More

A Lot To Watch In The US, What About Big Tech Companies?

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 31.01.2022 11:11
US stocks recorded a last-minute rally on Friday, but gains remain on jeopardy as the hawkish Fed expectations and the Russia-Ukraine tensions are weighing on the risk appetite. The geopolitical tensions, in fact, push energy prices higher, further boosting the inflation fears and the Fed hawks. The consensus now is that the Fed would raise the interest rates five times this year. In this environment, US dollar is certainly a good place to park, while gold is doing surprisingly poorly despite having most factors that would normally support a better pricing on its side. In the stock markets, value stock investors are finally being praised for their patience. At today’s episode, I have an interesting comparison of Warren Buffet and Cathi Wood’s performances over the past two years! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:24 Market update 1:34 Energy prices jump on Russia-Ukraine tensions 3:10 USD consolidates gains, XAU performs surprisingly bad 3:55 Warren Buffett vs Cathie Wood 5:43 Big Tech gains at jeopardy as Fed hawks gain field 8:45 This week's economic calendar: ECB, BoE, RBA & OPEC 9:25 This week's corporate calendar: Google, Facebook & Amazon Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Metaverse Tokens Sink After Holiday Crypto Rally

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: BTC bears to go extinct beyond $53,000

FXStreet News FXStreet News 07.02.2022 16:06
Bitcoin price looks overextended as it grapples with the 50-day SMA and the weekly resistance barrier at $42,816. Ethereum price pierces through the bearish breaker and approaches the 50-day SMA at $3,242. Ripple price approaches the $0.757 to $0.807 supply zone that could cut the uptrend short. Bitcoin price has seen tremendous gains over the past three days as it attempts to overcome a massive hurdle. While altcoins like Ethereum and Ripple have corresponded to this bullishness, investors need to exercise caution with fresh investments as a retracement could be around the corner. Bitcoin price faces a decisive moment Bitcoin price has risen 18% over the past four days and is currently hovering below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the weekly resistance barrier confluence at $42,816. If this uptrend is a bull trap, BTC is likely to see rejection followed by a retracement to the immediate support level at $8,481. A breakdown of the said barrier will knock the big crypto down to $34,752. In an extremely bearish case, Bitcoin price could revisit the $30,000 psychological barrier and collect the liquidity resting below it. BTC/USD 1-day chart If BTC produces a daily candlestick close above the breaker’s upper limit at $44,387, however, it will invalidate the bearish thesis. While this development will alleviate the sell-side pressure, it does not mean that Bitcoin price has flipped bullish. A daily candlestick close above $52,000 will produce a higher high and suggest the possible start of an uptrend. Ethereum price slithers close to bearish thesis invalidation Ethereum price has followed the big crypto and pierced the bearish breaker, ranging from $2,789 to $3,167. Any further bullish momentum will push ETH to climb higher and retest the 50-day SMA at $3,242. Assuming BTC retraces, investors can expect Ethereum price to face rejection at $3,242, leading to a 25% pullback to the weekly support level at $2,324. In a highly bearish case, Ethereum price could revisit the $1,730 weekly support level and collect the sell-side liquidity resting below it. ETH/USD 1-day chart Regardless of the bearish outlook, the Ethereum price can invalidate the short-term bearish outlook if it produces a daily candlestick close above the $3,167 resistance zone. A bullish scenario could be kick-started, however, if buyers push ETH to produce a swing high at $3,413. Ethereum price gains momentum to breakout to $3,300 Ripple price faces a blockade Ripple price broke out of its consolidation and rallied 25% from $0.604 to $0.754. This impressive move is currently retesting the weekly resistance barrier at $0.740, which rests below another hurdle that extends from $0.757 to $0.807. Rejection at this multi-resistance zone seems likely considering the situation in which Bitcoin is in, and investors can expect the Ripple price to retrace 16%, returning to the consolidation zone at $0.628. XRP/USD 1-day chart A daily candlestick close above the supply zone’s upper limit at $0.807 will signal a resurgence of buyers and indicate their willingness to move higher. In this case, Ripple price could set up a higher high by rallying 12% to $0.911.    
Swissquote MarketTalk: A Look At XAUUSD, Swiss Secrets, Tesla And More

Big bond selloff hit equities, but not Bitcoin… for now | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 08.02.2022 18:13
US equities lack a clear direction as the sovereign bond selloff intensifies across the globe, pressuring the yields higher, and the equity valuations lower. But, cryptocurrencies are on the rise, with meme coins gaining the most in the crypto space despite poor and volatile risk appetite. In FX, the EURUSD faces important resistance between 1.1480/1.1550 before we call it the end of the weak euro against the US dollar, the GPBUSD may not keep it above the 1.35 while the Turkish lira is stoic to the global FX moves, and sky-rocketing inflation in Turkey. In stock news, Peloton, due to announce earnings today, is in focus on rumours that it could be the acquisition target for Big Tech companies including Apple, Amazon and Disney. Why would anyone buy Peloton? Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:25 Market update: yields on the rise! 3:06 Approaching the end of the weak euro 4:15 FX thought bubble: GBP, TRY 5:24 Bitcoin & meme coins rise 7:01 Who will buy Peloton? Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
Technical Analysis: Moving Averages - Did You Know This Tool?

Apple Stock News and Forecast: AAPL remains subject to geopolitical whims

FXStreet News FXStreet News 02.03.2022 16:19
Apple stock remains above its 200-day moving average as geopolitical turmoil remains. AAPL stock is unlikely to break higher until the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends. Apple is likely to fall further as no catalyst in sight and sanctions hurt all global businesses. Apple (AAPL) stock remains in recovery mode along with most US indices as last week's shock and awe sell-off remain the low mark for now. Stocks have entered a changed landscape for 2022, and the situation is worsening from both a macroeconomic and geopolitical viewpoint. Investors were just about coming to accept the inflation and interest rate environment for 2022 and had adjusted portfolios accordingly. High-risk growth stocks were avoided, and the focus returned to those stocks with strong balance sheets and low valuations. Value versus growth had already seen strong outperformance for value. Now things are worse. Sanctions will hit global growth and Europe especially hard. Energy costs are out of control, European gas prices are nearly ten times higher than a year ago. Oil prices we know all about. What we are left with then is higher inflation and now for longer likely reaching into 2024. Interest rates will have to rise, despite slowing growth, leading to stagflation. High-risk assets will struggle. Equities are viewed as a high-risk asset so expect bond inflows to outweigh equity fund inflows for the remainder of this crisis and beyond. Likely sector winners in the short term are defense stocks and oil stocks should have earnings well underpinned now for the remainder of the year. Apple (AAPL) stock is a harder one to quantify in this new environment. The stock certainly has defensive qualities, it has piles of cash which it can use for dividends, buybacks, or acquisitions. It has some pricing power that it can pass on to customers. However, rising commodity prices lead to higher semiconductor prices. Higher energy costs lead to higher shipping costs for inputs and outputs. Rising inflation and possible slowing growth will lead customers to scale back on purchases of luxury goods. Sanctions will hit globalized businesses. Apple Stock News With perfect timing, the EU has just come out and said EU countries must turn off the stimulus tap sharply and take a neutral fiscal stance. This means less free money and a focus on debt reduction, as well as echoes of the dreaded tight monetary policy that prevailed after the Great Financial Crash. This will mean less consumer spending. Apple Stock Forecast We cannot avoid the overall bearish macro and geopolitical background. We would rate Apple as outperforming, but that is an outperform in a bearish market. We note the potential and hope for a swift end to the conflict as Russia and Ukraine meet again for talks. This will lead to a sharp relief rally, so short-term traders take note. The risk-reward is probably skewed to the upside. Wednesday is likely to see a slow gradual move lower or a swift rally on positive developments. Longer-term though the situation is clouded. Unless the conflict ends soon and sanctions are lifted quickly, we fail to see how equities can return to any form of bullishness. The situation from one month ago has not changed apart from lower economic growth. For now, Apple has found support at the 200-day moving average, which is set at $152 today. This is massive support. Break that and it is likely onto $138. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergernce (MACD) remain bearish, confirming the price move. Apple stock chart, daily
The Financial History Of The Past 30 Years And Some Of Future Opportunities

(APPL) Apple Stock Price Affected By COVID-19 In China, BTC Not Banned In The EU - MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 15.03.2022 11:12
Rapid decline in oil prices came as a relief to the European stock markets yesterday, yet the lack of diplomatic progress on the Ukrainian war and China’s fresh lockdown to stop the omicron contagion weigh on investors sentiment. Apple shares dived more than 2.50% on Monday, on news that supplier Foxconn had to stop activity in Shenzhen for at least a week. The S&P500 confirmed a death cross formation, and Nasdaq stepped into correction territory. The crude price plunge below the $100pb came as a relief in the middle of a sea of bad news, but it will certainly not prevent the German ZEW sentiment index from freefalling from 48 to 10 in March. What’s next? The downside correction in oil prices is sure a relief when it comes to the inflation expectations, but the new lockdown measures will continue worsening the supply chain crisis and add on the inflation worries. The US producer price data is about to confirm an advance to 10% level in February, as the FOMC starts its two-day meeting today and is expected to raise the interest rates by 25bp for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic. Gold gives back the recent gains as the rising US yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing gold, while Bitcoin trades a touch below the $40K mark as EU chose not to ban Bitcoin at yesterday’s crucial vote. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:24 Sentiment update 2:20 China Covid lockdown hits Apple share price 4:19 Crude oil below $100pb 5:31 S&P500 confirms death cross, Nasdaq in correction 6:15 Chinese stocks' hemorrhage gets worse 7:27 Fed meets to raise rates 8:35 Gold down on higher US yields 9:04 Bitcoin steady as EU choses NOT to ban digital assets Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
Podcast: The Weak Equity Market, Focus On Copper, The Euro Situation

Fluctuations Of Crowdstrike, Apple (APPL) To Rise Again, Elon Musk Makes Other Twitter Shareholder Angry

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 13.04.2022 11:25
Equities 2022-04-13 05:30 6 minutes to read Summary:   Crowdstrike shares surge putting cybersecurity in the limelight. Apple and BHP poised to announce share buy backs, which will support further share price growth. Oil rocks back over US$100 lifting oil stocks in New York and Australia. A Twitter shareholder sues Elon Musk for allegedly committing fraud. Iron ore and aluminium are back in vouge, boosting Rio Tinto shares. US defaults to double according to S&P Global. New Zealand makes its biggest increase in interest rates in 22-years. Co-written by Market Strategists Jessica Amir in Australia, Redmond Wong in Hong Kong. What’s happening in equites that you need to know? US stocks fell for the third day. The S&P 500 (US500.I) and the Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) lost 0.3%. As always, there were bright sparks at the stock level. The world’s biggest cybersecurity company, Crowdstrike (CRWD) rose 3.2% to US$223.51 (its highest level since November last year), after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to a buy. We’ve previously mentioned Crowdstrike as a stock to watch. It makes 94% of its money from subscriptions, and we like businesses like these, given they are set to benefit from elevated demand to address cyberattack fears. The market also likes Crowdstrike with 93% of analysts rating the stock as a BUY. Goldman Sachs expects Crowdstrike’s shares to rise to $285 in a year. Also in MegaCaps, Apple (AAPL) shares jumped over 1% after whispers that Apple could announce a buyback of US$80-$90 billion (and buy backs support share price growth). Hang Seng Index (HSI.I) and CSI300 (000300.I) are little changed. Hang Seng Tech (HSTECH.I) was up 0.6%.  Energy and mining stocks outperformed.  Zijin Mining (02899) surged 7%.  Jiangxi Copper (00358), China Molybdenum (03993), MMG (0128) rose more than 5%.  CNOOC (00883) rallied 4% and China Coal was up from the 6%.  In A shares, logistics names outperformed while real estates, airlines, online entertainment led declines.  Twitter (TWTR) shareholders sue Elon Musk (TSLA CEO). A Twitter, shareholder sued Elon Musk for allegedly committing fraud by delaying the disclosure of his ownership of more than 5% of Twitter, so Musk could buy more shares at a cheaper price. The investor said Musk should  have disclosed his holding by March 24, instead of April 1. Twitter shares rose 27%, from $39.31 on April 1, to $49.97 on April 4. Twitter shareholder, Marc Bain Rasella is also looking to represent a class of investors who sold Twitter shares from March 24 to April 1. Crude oil (OILUKJUN22 & OILUSMAY22) jumps 6% to $101, ... ...as OPEC said the obvious, that’s it’s impossible to replace supply losses from Russia, while China also hints of restrictions easing. This supports gains in oil stocks in the US overnight and in Australia today.  The Australia share market more (ASX200) rose 0.2% by 1pm local time with energy and mining stocks fueling the market higher. Also of note, Rio Tinto (RIO) rose 2.2% after the aluminium and iron ore price extended their rebound. Both prices are important to Rio as it makes 58% of its revenue from iron ore and 22% from aluminium . Also consider demand for aluminium  is expected to grow with company’s like Apple and Nestle's Nespresso to use more of the material to reduce CO2 emissions. Iron ore (SCOA) rebounded yesterday rising 2.5%, but today it’s about 0.9% lower, but holds 8-month highs, at US$154.25. It comes as China again pledged to stabilise its economy and this brightened the outlook for steelmaking ingredient. BHP (BHP) shares are holding at $51.71, and remain in their long term uptrend. So it's worth keeping an eye on BHP. BHP is also touted to annouce a record profit this year and a share buy back, which also supports share price growth. What you need to consider US defaults to double according to S&P Global.  S&P Global Rating anticipates the US’s default rate will swell from the current 1.5%, to 3% by year-end, amid financial conditions tightening. In China, the S&P Global Ratings expects more property developer defaults, with $18 billion in maturing debt and the likelihood of home sales falling 15-20%. Inflation is uncomfortably high.  March CPI hit 8.5% year-on-year. The hottest inflation since 1981. Core CPI moderated a bit, mostly due to a cooling of oil prices, and rose 6.5%. This is still the highest rate since 1982. The largest prices rises were in; fuel oil (70%), gas (48%), used cars (35%), hotels (29%), airfares (24%) and utility gas (22%) on a year on year basis. See the full list here (scrolling to pdf page 9). Simply this tells us, the US Federal Reserve is behind in fighting inflation, so expect a 0.5% interest rate hike at the May FOMC meeting, with rates to hit 2.6% at the end the year. In RMB terms, March China exports rose 12.9% while imports fell 1.7%.  In USD terms, March exports climbed 14.7% from a year ago and imports declined 0.1%. Trade surplus increased to USD47.4 billion (vs consensus $21.7bln, Feb $30.6bln). New Zealand makes its biggest increase in interest rates in 22-years,  while also announcing quarantine free travel. The RBNZ increased interest rates by 0.5% to 1.5%. The surprise caused the New Zealand stock market to fall 0.4% with their tech stocks falling 1.4%. However, as NZ announced quarantine-free travel, the travel industry got a kick, Auckland International Airport (AIA) shares rose 1.1% higher. Trading ideas to consider Aussie dollar and Kiwi ‘up and at em’, amid travel boost.  The Australian dollar (AUDUSD) is back in vogue, rising for the second day, after Australian business confidence rose to its highest level in 5 months. While the NZ dollar (NZDUSD) also rallied for the second day, heading toward 0.69 US. It’s worth watching these two currencies as travel takes off as well between the two nations. Travel stocks.  Air stocks like Air New Zealand (AIZ) and Auckland International Airport (AIA), and Qantas (QAN), Singapore Airlines (SIAL), China Eastern Airlines (CEA) could be worth watching as they have not recovered from the covid falls in 2020. If China restrictions ease and tourism reopens, it’s worth keeping these on your radar. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast 
Apple Stock Price Hit $170 On Thursday! What About iPhone 14 Production? Energy Stocks: BP Increased By Over 1% Yesterday!

(APPL) Apple Earnings and (AMZN) Amazon Earnings Are Due To Be Announced! What To Expect?

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 28.04.2022 11:38
Summary: Apple stock prices are facing pressure amidst lockdown in China causing concerns over supply. Amazon stock prices are being heavily affected by current market sentiment. Apple stock prices are declining despite investor confidence in their Q1 earnings announcements. In general market sentiment is showing bearish signals, but this negative sentiment is lying heavily on BigTech stocks, this sentiment runs so deep that buying BigTech stocks almost makes sense. According to some analysts, the sentiment on tech stocks is so bad at the moment that there has to be an end in sight coming soon. After the market close today, we can expect Apple (APPL) to announce their earnings reports. After the market close today, we can expect Apple (APPL) to announce their earnings reports. The Apple stocks have been falling drastically over the past week inlight of uncertainty around the lockdowns in China and how they will affect the second quarter's earnings. However, investors do expect the earnings from Apple’s first quarter to be favourable. APPL Stock Price Chart Read next: Zuckerberg Didn't Shock Market! Meta Platforms Inc. (FB) Q1 Earnings Announcement Expected Whilst GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Delivers Favorable Figures  Amazon (AMZN) earnings report due later today. There is a lot of weight that has been riding on the tech companies earnings announcements this week, with amazon due to make their earnings announcements later today along with Apple, the market sentiment is bearish. Even if all the Q1 earnings announcements from the BigTech companies were favourable (which has not been the case), the market would still struggle to recover from the current negative sentiment. Over the past week the price of Amazon's stock has been falling over the past week inlight of the negative market sentiment. With the employees from one of the warehouses of Amazon lobbying to unionise, increasing prices and supply problems could be indications of potential earnings struggles for this tech giant. Amazon.com Price Chart Read next: (MSFT) Microsoft and (GOOGL) Alphabet's (Google) Earnings Announcements Due Later Today  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, barrons.com, fastcompany.com
The Trade Off - 31/03/22

Amazon (AMZN) And Apple (APPL) Post Earnings Announcement Performance. Elon Musk Moves On To Coca-Cola!?

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 29.04.2022 10:44
Summary: Amazon causes poor investor sentiment. Apple shocks the market. Musk going after Coca-Cola next?? Amazon (AMZN) stock prices show improving investor confidence despite disappointing revenue forecasts. During post market trading yesterday, the AMZN share price fell by almost 10%. This fall comes after the tech giant made its earnings announcement, this was because the earnings missed investor forecasts. The slightly disappointing revenue in Q1 of Amazon came as a result, amongst other things, of a decrease in consumer spending online and a return to in-person-activities. Amazon attributed its disappointing earnings to the current adverse economic conditions partly coming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and partly from the issues around supply chains. Their earnings increase is 37% lower (Q1 2022: 7%, Q1 2021: 44%) than this time last year and their EPS has fallen by 0.84 cents for the same time period. AMZN Share Price Chart Read next: (APPL) Apple Earnings and (AMZN) Amazon Earnings Are Due To Be Announced! What To Expect?  Apple earnings announcement left investors feeling bullish Apple share prices increase inlight of favorable earnings reported by the tech giant. The earnings reported were better than the market expected. Although the Q1 earnings for Apple are causing the share price to increase, concerns still remain around the future supply chains of this tech giant, they can be heavily impacted by China’s “zero-covid” policy and its lockdowns. APPL Share Price Chart Elon Musk targeting Coca-Cola next? On Wednesday night Elon Musk posted a tweet on his platform suggesting or joking about acquiring the Coca-Cola company, this comes after his offer to buy Twitter (TWTR) was approved by the board. Musks tweet was as follows “Next I’m buying Coca-Cola to put the cocaine back in”. Although many of the world’s richest man's followers saw the tweet as a joke, there was a time when people thought his quest for TWTR was a joke too. The tweet caused Coca-Cola’s share price to drop hugely, the price has since recovered, but what does the future hold for this beverage giant ? KO Share Price Chart Read next: Zuckerberg Didn't Shock Market! Meta Platforms Inc. (FB) Q1 Earnings Announcement Expected Whilst GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Delivers Favorable Figures  Sources: dailyfx.com, Finance.yahoo.com
Saxo Bank Podcast: Protests In China, Lower Yields, Lower Crude Oil, Apple Risks A Further Haircut On The Risk And More

European telecoms outlook for 2022 | ING Economics

ING Economics ING Economics 19.05.2022 08:53
After years of heavy pressure on revenues in the telecom sector, we make a call for near-term revenue stabilisation. From an operational perspective, the main themes for the telecom sector are the build-out of 5G and fibre networks. To improve the relative position of the sector regulators should review their measures to provide a more level playing field Source: Shutterstock War has a limited impact on the telecom sector European- and US-based telecom operators are rather insulated from the conflict in Ukraine. Major operators have no sales in the region, the exception being VEON, which is largely exposed, since it is active in Russia and Ukraine. Telekom Austria had only 7.4% of its FY 2021 revenues coming from Belarus. For now, the impact of the war seems limited, with most companies maintaining their 2022 outlook. Typically, demand for telecom services grows in line with GDP. If a severe recession would hit the global economy, telecom operators and handset vendors probably have to adjust revenue expectations in line with GDP expectations, on average. In Europe, however, service revenues have historically already been under pressure because of strong competition. We do not foresee a substantial impact on the financial solidity of companies resulting from this crisis. The biggest risk for the sector comes from cyberwarfare The biggest risk for the sector comes from cyberwarfare. State sponsored hackers could engage at some point in cyberwarfare, something the US government warns about. Hackers could try to impair (local) infrastructure, while telecom companies have to up their defenses. Interestingly, so far, we have seen limited impact from cyberwarfare that could possibly have been initiated as a part of the war in Ukraine. However, we are starting to see revenue stabilisation in a couple of markets. For example, the market leaders in the Dutch, French, Belgian and German markets are close to revenue stabilisation. This is mainly driven by new broadband products, which are often offered with mobile services in a bundled product. Restructuring programmes continue to modernise the back-office of the operators and to phase out legacy technologies. Once programmes are over, this could be a tailwind for profitability. Despite good traction from bundled products and new high ARPU fibre products, many incumbents have segments that see price pressure, often in the business segments. This explains why we see positive trends in the sector, while revenues are not showing strong positive growth rates. Domestic revenue trends European telecom operators Source: Company, ING Aiming for a level playing field The European Commission aims for gigabit broadband for all households as well as for a fast 5G mobile connection in populated areas, which should be reached by 2030. It also aims to rein in some large technology companies. It has published proposals for the Digital Services Act (DSA) and the Digital Markets Act (DMA) which should reduce the dominance of the large technology platforms and create a level playing field with other sectors in Europe. The EU member states and European Parliament said they welcome the proposals. These are now subject to formal approval by the two co-legislators before they will be applicable. Hopefully, the competitive position of telecom companies will improve as well at some point in the future. Competition has been promoted... and this has lowered prices for telecom services as well Regulation has seriously impaired the profitability of telecom companies through tariff measures (for broadband wholesale access and roaming tariffs). Competition has been promoted, with four mobile operators in many European countries. This has lowered prices for telecom services as well. Governments have raised a lot of money through spectrum auctions and often incentivised new operators entering the market. Finally, product differentiation has been difficult because of net neutrality regulations. As a consequence, free cash flow has been under pressure from both weaker revenues, as well as heavy investments and dividends. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM A case in point is Telecom Italia, which had a solid investment grade rating in 2005, but is now rated in high yield territory. The Italian market is characterised by heavy competition, while the company explains that its fixed network faces relatively high regulatory pressure from a multitude of measures. The company faces substantial pressure on revenues, as can be seen in the figure above. The interim result is that the company is investigating a break-up, having ramifications for the speed of the broadband roll-out in Italy. The downward pressure on credit ratings has been more widespread in the European telecom sector since most companies have already seen rating downgrades. This is illustrated in the table below. Downward rating pressure for European telecom operators Source: S&P Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM As a result, telecom companies have been at the wrong spot in the value chain, while companies that sell telecom equipment, media content or cloud storage have performed very well, as is shown in the figure below. While large technology companies have the means to invest in new (transatlantic) fibre networks, incumbents often can’t fund all of their network investments from their cash flows. In our opinion regulators should pay attention to a call by the European Telecom Network Organisation (ETNO) in which they ask for a fair contribution for the network investment costs from companies that extensively use broadband networks. Since 2015, unregulated firms did profit from internet with market cap. growth Source: Refinitiv Sector trends contribute to revenue stability Nevertheless, broadband connectivity will likely improve across Europe and 5G is here to stay. The private sector is investing heavily, but there are also plans to invest €13bn in digital connectivity as part of the European Resilience and Recovery Plan. Typically, customer retention is relatively healthy for fibre products, especially when combined in a fixed-mobile converged offer. Net mobile networks and services could also contribute to the goal of revenue stability and eventually growing revenues. This year, 5G products and services will likely become widespread. However, it will be key for mobile operators to find good pricing policies for these new 5G services.   Read this article on THINK TagsTelecom sector European telecoms Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Apple May Rise Price For iPhone 14! Are Fuel Warehouses Empty?

Apple May Rise Price For iPhone 14! Are Fuel Warehouses Empty?

Saxo Strategy Team Saxo Strategy Team 11.08.2022 13:39
Summary:  Equity markets are ebullient in the wake of the softer than expected US July CPI data print yesterday, as a sharp drop in energy prices helped drag the CPI lower than expected for the month. The knee-jerk reaction held well in equities overnight, if to a lesser degree in the weaker US dollar. But US yields are nearly unchanged from the levels prior to the inflation release, creating an interesting tension across markets, also as some Fed members are explicitly pushing back against market anticipation of the Fed easing next year.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) The July CPI report showing core inflation rose only 0.3% m/m compared to 0.5% m/m expected was just what the market was hoping for and had priced into the forward curve for next year’s Fed Funds rate. Long duration assets reacted the most with Nasdaq 100 futures climbing 2.9%. However, investors should be careful not to be too optimistic as we had a similar decline in the CPI core back in March before inflation roared back. As Mester recently stated that the Fed is looking for a sustained reduction in the CPI core m/m, which is likely a 6-month average getting back to around 0.2% m/m. Given the current data points it is not realistic to be comfortable with inflation before late Q1 next year. In Nasdaq 100 future the next natural resistance level is around 13,536 and if the index futures can take out this then the next level be around 14,000 where the 200-day average is coming down to. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI.I) and China’s CSI300 (000300.I) Hong Kong and mainland Chinese equities climbed, Hang Seng Index +1.8%, CSI300 Index +1.6%. In anticipation of a 15% rise in the average selling price of Apple’s iPhone 14 as conjectured by analysts, iPhone parts supplier stocks soared in both Hong Kong and mainland exchanges, Q Technology (01478:xhkg) +16%, Sunny Optical (02382:xhkg) +7%, Cowell E (01415:xhkg) +4%, Lingyi iTech (002600:xsec) +10%. Semiconductors gained, SMIC (00981:xhkg) +3%, Hua Hong (01347:xhkg) +4%. After collapsing 16% in share price yesterday, Longfor (00960) only managed to recover around 3% after the company denied market speculation that it failed to repay commercial papers due. UBS’ downgraded Longfor and Country Garden (02007:xhkkg) yesterday citing negative free cash flows for the first half of 2022 highlighted the tight spots even the leading Chinese private enterprise property developers are in. Chinese internet stocks rallied, Alibaba (09988:xhkg) +3%, Tencent (0700:xhkg) +1%, Meituan (03690:xhkkg) +2.7%. China ended its military drills surrounding Taiwan on Wednesday, which lasted three days longer what had been originally announced. USD: Treasuries don’t point to further weakness here The US dollar knee-jerked lower on the softer-than-expected July CPI data, although US yields ended the day unchanged, creating an interesting tension in a pair like USDJPY, which normally takes its lead from longer US yields (unchanged yesterday after a significant dip intraday after the US CPI release). USDJPY dipped almost all the way to 132.00 after trading above 135.00 earlier in the day. What are traders to do – follow the coincident US yield indicator or the negative momentum created by yesterday’s move? Either way, a return above 135.00 would for USDJPY would likely require an extension higher in the US 10-year yield back near 3.00%. EURUSD is another interesting pair technically after local resistance just below 1.0300 gave way, only to see the pair hitting a brick wall in the 1.0350 area (major prior range low from May-June). Was this a break higher or a misleading knee-jerk reaction to the US data? A close below 1.0250 would be needed there to suggest that EURUSD is focusing back lower again. A similar setup can be seen in AUDUSD and the 0.7000 area, with a bit more sensitivity to risk sentiment there. Gold (XAUUSD) did not have a good day on Wednesday Gold was trading lower on the day after failing to build on the break above resistance at $1803 as the dollar weakened following the lower-than-expected CPI print, thereby reducing demand for gold as an inflation hedge. Instead, the prospect for a potential shallower pace of future rate hikes supported a major risk on rally in stocks and another daily reduction in bullion-backed ETF holdings. Yet comments by two Fed officials saying it doesn’t change the central bank’s path toward even higher rates – and with that the risk of a gold supportive economic weakness - did not receive much attention. Gold now needs to hold $1760 in order to avoid a fresh round of long liquidation, while silver, which initially received a boost from higher copper prices before following gold lower needs to hold above its 50-day SMA at $20.26. Crude oil Crude oil futures (CLU2 & LCOV2) traded higher on Wednesday supported by a weaker dollar after the lower US inflation print gave markets a major risk on boost. Also, the weekly EIA report showed a jump in gasoline demand reversing the prior week’s sharp drop. Gasoline inventories dropped 5 million barrels to their lowest seasonal level since 2015 on a combination of strong exports and improved domestic demand while crude oil stocks rose 5.4m barrels primarily supported by a 5.3 million barrels release from SPR. Focus today on monthly Oil Market Reports from OPEC and the IEA. Dutch natural gas The Dutch TTF natural gas benchmark futures (TTFMQ2) rallied amid concerns over Russian gas supplies and falling water levels on the key Rhine River which threatens to disrupt energy shipments of fuel and coal, thereby forcing utilities and industries to consumer more pipelined gas. Dutch front month futures rose 6.9% to EUR 205.47/MWh while the October to March winter contract closed at a fresh cycle high above €200/MWH. European countries have been filling up their gas storage, largely by factories cutting back on their usage and through LNG imports, the flow of the latter likely to be challenged by increased demand from Asia into the autumn. Further demand curbs and more imports of liquefied natural gas are likely the only option for Europe ahead of the winter. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT) shrug off soft July CPI data US yields at first reacted strongly to the softer-than-expected July CPI release (details below), but ended the day mostly unchanged at all points along the curve, suggesting that the market is unwilling to extend its already aggressive view that the Fed is set to reach peak policy by the end of this year and begin cutting rates. Some Fed members are pushing back strongly against that notion as noted below (particularly Kashkari). A stronger sign that yields are headed back higher for the US 10-year benchmark would be on a close above 2.87% and especially 3.00%. Yesterday’s 10-year auction saw strong demand. What is going on? US July CPI lower than expected The US CPI print came in lower than expected for both the headline and the core measures. The headline softness was driven by huge drops in energy prices from June levels, with the entire energy category marked -4.6% lower month-on-month and gasoline down -7.7%, much of the latter on record refinery margins collapsing. The ex-Food & Energy category was up only +0.3% vs. the +0.5% expected, with soft prices month-on-month for used cars and trucks (-0.4%) and especially airfares (-7.8%) dragging the most on figure. While this may be an indication that US inflation has peaked, it is still at considerably high levels compared to inflation targets of ~2% and the pace of decline from here matters more than the absolute trend. Shelter costs – the biggest component of services inflation – was up 5.7% y/y, the most since 1991. Fed pricing for the September meeting has tilted towards a 50bps rate hike but that still remains prone to volatility with another set of labor market and inflation prints due ahead of the next meeting. Fed speakers maintain hawkish message Fed speaker Evans and Kashkari were both on the hawkish side in rhetoric yesterday. Evans again hinted that tightening will continue into 2023 as inflation remains unacceptably high despite a first sign of cooling prices. The strength of the labor market continued to support the case of a soft landing. Kashkari reaffirmed the view on inflation saying that he is happy to see a downside surprise in inflation, but it remains far from declaring victory. Long thought of previously as the pre-eminent dove among Fed members, he has waxed far more hawkish of late and said yesterday that nothing has changed his view that the Fed funds rate should be at 3.9% at the end of this year (vs. market pricing of 3.5%) and 4.4% by the end 2023 (vs. market pricing of 3.1%). Siemens cuts outlook Germany’s largest industrial company is cutting its profit outlook on impairment charges related to its energy division. FY22 Q3 results (ending 30 June) show revenue of €17.9bn vs est. €17.4bn and orders are strong at €22bn vs est. €19.5bn. Orsted lifts expectations The largest renewable energy utility company in Europe reports Q2 revenue of DKK 26.3bn vs est. 21.7bn, but EBITDA misses estimates and the fiscal year guidance on EBITDA at DKK 20-22bn is significantly lower than estimates of DKK 30.4bn. However, the new EBITDA guidance range is DKK 1bn above the recently stated guidance, so Orsted is doing better than expected but the market had just become too optimistic. Disney beats on subscribers Disney reported FY22 Q3 (ending 2 July) results showing Disney+ subscribers at 152.1mn vs est. 148.4mn surprising the market as several surveys have recently indicated that Amazon Prime and Netflix are losing subscribers. The entertainment company also reported revenue for the quarter of $21.5bn vs est. $21bn with Parks & Experiences deliver the most to the upside surprise. EPS for the quarter was $1.09 vs est. $0.96. If subscribers for ESPN and Hulu are added, then Disney has surpassed Netflix on streaming subscribers. Shares were up 6% in extended trading. Despite the positive result the company lowered its 2024 target for Disney+ subscriber to 135-165mn range. Coupang lifts fiscal year EBITDA outlook The South Korean e-commerce company missed slightly on revenue in Q2 but lifted its fiscal year adjusted EBITDA from a loss of $400mn to positive which lifted shares 6% in extended trading. China’s central bank expects CPI to hover around 3% In its 2nd quarter monetary policy report released on Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) expects the CPI being at around 3% for the full year of 2022 and at times exceeding 3%.  The release of pend-up demand from pandemic restrictions, the upturn of the hog-cycle, and imported inflation, in particular energy, are expected to drive consumer price inflation higher for the rest of the year in China but overall within the range acceptable by the central bank.  The PBOC expects the recent downtrend of the PPI to continue and the gap between the CPI and PPI growth rates to narrow. What are we watching next? Next signals from the Fed at Jackson Hole conference Aug 25-27 There is a considerable tension between the market’s forecast for the economy and the resulting expected path of Fed policy for the rest of this year and particularly next year, as the market believes that a cooling economy and inflation will allow the Fed to reverse course and cut rates in a “soft landing” environment (the latter presumably because financial conditions have eased aggressively since June, suggesting that markets are not fearing a hard landing/recession). Some Fed members have tried to push back against the market’s expectations for Fed rate cuts next year it was likely never the Fed’s intention to allow financial conditions to ease so swiftly and deeply as they have in recent weeks. The risks, therefore, point to a Fed that may mount a more determined pushback at the Jackson Hole forum, the Fed’s yearly gathering at Jackson Hole, Wyoming that is often used to air longer term policy guidance. Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings in focus are NIO and Rivian with market running hot again on EV-makers despite challenging environment on input costs and increased competition. NIO is expected to grow revenue by 15% y/y in Q2 before seeing growth jumping to 72% y/y in Q3 as pent-up demand is released following Covid restrictions in China in the first half. Rivian, which partly owned by Amazon and makes EV trucks, is expected to deliver its first quarter with meaningful activity with revenue expected at $336mn but free cash flow is expected at $-1.8bn. Today: KBC Group, Brookfield Asset Management, Orsted, Novozymes, Siemens, Hapag-Lloyd, RWE, China Mobile, Antofagasta, Zurich Insurance Group, NIO, Rivian Automotive Friday: Flutter Entertainment, Baidu Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0800 – IEA's Monthly Oil Market Report 1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 1230 – US Jul. PPI 1430 – US Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change 1700 – US Treasury to auction 30-year T-Bonds 2330 – US Fed’s Daly (Non-voter) to speak During the day: OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – August 11, 2022  
Apple Stock Price Hit $170 On Thursday! What About iPhone 14 Production? Energy Stocks: BP Increased By Over 1% Yesterday!

Apple Stock Price Hit $170 On Thursday! What About New iPhones Production? Energy Stocks: BP Increased By Over 1% Yesterday!

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 12.08.2022 10:46
US equities could hardly consolidate gains they posted following the Wednesday’s softer-than-expected inflation data in the US, even as the producer price index printed the first monthly decline since April 2020. The barrel of US crude rebounded to $94 as the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the biggest US oil companies’ combined deficit is almost back to the historical lows, and that the soaring gas prices boosted the use of oil-power generation, and that the ‘substantial’ gas-to-oil switching is, in return, set to boost crude consumption for the rest of the year, even as demand growth from other parts of the economy slows. Technology stocks and cryptocurrencies remain on a positive path as well, for now. Apple hit $170 yesterday Oil stocks gained along with the rebound in crude prices. But technology stocks and cryptocurrencies remain on a positive path as well, for now. Apple hit $170 yesterday, as Amazon is preparing to test its 200-DMA to the upside. Elsewhere, gold remains under pressure, while Bitcoin tests $25K resistance- Ethereum’s final test before the Merge update was succesful, hinting that major cryptocurrencies could extend gains during the weekend. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:30 Post-CPI rally remains short-lived 3:33 Oil jumps as IEA warns of ‘substantial’ oil-to-gas demand shift 5:12 Oil stocks gain, tech stocks remain on positive path, too 7:55 Gold soft, Bitcoin & Ethereum up on ETH’s successful pre-Merger test #MarketNews Some stock market #bulls are watching a technical indicator for clues on whether a summer rebound in #US equities will roll on. 👇https://t.co/k7q9LZhAsZ — Swissquote (@Swissquote) August 12, 2022 Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #crude #oil #rally #IEA #warning #BP #XOM #Apple #Amazon #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Merge #test #US #inflation #data #Gold #XAU #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH  
Wow! Federal Reserve decision is not everything next week! What's ahead? InstaForex talks many economic events (Monday) - 30/10/22

(APPL) Apple Stock Price Reached Over $170 Yesterday!

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 16.08.2022 13:02
Lack of direction is what investors will be suffering until we see clearer signs of inflation abating. And that will take time, as we must see a couple of encouraging data points to call the central banks’ inflation fight successful. The lack of clear direction is driving the markets up and down, and big bank analyst have very diverging opinions regarding where the stocks are headed next. One thing is clear, opportunities never disappear and picking the right sectors and right stocks lead to sustainable portfolio returns. Among interesting sectors, traditional and alternative energy stocks stand out. Swissquote proposes two promising alternative energy theme portfolios. Forex In the FX, the dollar index rebounded, and the stronger greenback sent the EURUSD below the 1.0150 mark. The dollar-CAD is, on the other hand, swinging between the Canadian dollar bulls’ hope of seeing a recovery in oil prices, and the persistently strong US dollar. Canada will reveal its latest inflation data today. A soft-enough read could soften the Bank of Canada (BoC) hawks, but a single month easing in inflation won’t mean that the BoC would weaken its policy stance when inflation remains near multi-decade peak. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:31 Weak data boosted Fed doves, and equity bulls 2:21 Analysts can’t agree on where stocks are headed next! 4:44 Oil & Green stocks are still interesting 8:51 EURUSD crumbles below 1.0150 & CAD awaits inflation data Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #bear #market #rally #sustainable #USD #EUR #CAD #inflation #Apple #Tesla #rally #Aramco #record #profits #crude #oil #selloff #US #Iran #nuclear #deal #alternative #green #energy #hydrogen #stocks #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
Despite The Strengthening Of The Risk-On Mood The Asian Markets Are Showing Mixed Reactions

Apple Concentrated On Vietnam Productions As China Having Problems With Energy Supply

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 18.08.2022 14:03
Overview: The sell-off in European bonds continues today. The 10-year German Bund yield is around four basis points higher to bring three-day increase to about 22 bp. The Italian premium over Germany has risen by almost 18 bp over these three sessions. Its two-year premium is widening for the fifth consecutive session and is above 90 bp for the first time in almost three weeks. The 10-year US Treasury yield is a little softer near 2.88%. Most of the large Asia Pacific equity markets fell, with India a notable exception. Europe’s Stoxx 600 snapped a five-day rally yesterday with a 0.9% loss. It is slightly firmer today, while US futures are hovering around yesterday’s closing levels. The greenback is firm against most of the major currencies. The Australian and Canadian dollars  and Norwegian krone and sterling are the most resilient today. The Philippines, like Norway hiked 50 bp but unlike Norway, the currency has not been bought. Most emerging market currencies are softer today. Gold is trying to break a three-day slide after approaching $1760. It settled last week at $1802. October WTI found a base a little below $85.50 and is around $88.50 near midday in Europe. The week’s high was set Monday by $91.50. US natgas is up 1.1% to recoup yesterday’s loss in full. Europe’s benchmark is extended this week’s run. It finished last week near 205.85 and now is around 232.00, a 12.7% gain after 6% last week. Iron ore ended a four-day 8% slide. September copper is recovering from the early drop to near two-week lows ($354.20) and is now near 362.00. A move above yesterday’s high (~$365) would be constructive. The sell-ff in September wheat has accelerated. It is off for the fifth consecutive session and is at its lowest level since January. After falling around 3% in three days from last Friday, it is off more than 5% between yesterday and today. Asia Pacific For good reasons, Beijing and Washington suspect the other of trying to change that status quo over Taiwan  The visits by US legislators may be only the initial efforts by Congress to force a more aggressive US position. It could come to a head in the fall when a bill that wants to recognize Taiwan as a major non-NATO ally and to foster Taiwan's membership in international forums will draw more attention. Meanwhile, US-Taiwan trade talks will begin later this year that was first aired a couple of months ago. At the same time, the Biden administration has been considering lifting some of the tariffs levied by the previous administration, but China's militaristic response to the visits makes it more difficult. Biden wants to lift the tariffs not to reward Beijing but to ease the costs to Americans. The Consumer Technology Association, an industry group, estimated that the tariffs have boosted the bill for American consumer technology companies by around $32 bln. The tariffs are paid to the US government. It seems that in lieu of lifting the tariffs, a broad exclusion process is possible. Related but separately, the Nikkei Asia reported that Apple is in talks to produce its watches and computers in Vietnam for the first time  Two suppliers have been producing Apple Watches in northern Vietnam. A couple of months ago, reports indicated that Apple would more some production of its tablets to Vietnam. Apple's ecosystem is establishing a presence in Vietnam, with nearly two dozen suppliers have factories now, almost doubling since 2018. As a result of these forces and the movement of capacity outside of China, Vietnam's trade surplus with the US is exploding. The $33 bln surplus in 2016 ballooned to $91 bln last year and was nearly $58 bln in the first half. For the past five years, the dollar has traded in a roughly 2% band around VND23000. The greenback is near the upper end of the range. Australia's July jobs report was disappointing  It lost almost 87k full-time positions after gaining nearly 53k in June. Part-time positions increased (46k), leading to a 40.9k loss of overall jobs. The median forecast (Bloomberg survey) was for a gain of 25k jobs. The unemployment rate slipped to a new record low of 3.4% (from 3.5%) but this was due to a sharp drop in the participation rate (66.4% from 66.8%). Ostensibly, this could give the central bank space to be more flexible at its September 6 meeting. However, the futures market as taken it in stride that has left the odds of a 50 bp hike next month essentially unchanged around 57%. This is essentially where it was at the end of last week and the week before. Many are now familiar with China's rolling lockdowns to combat Covid and the implosion of property market, a key engine of growth and accumulation  A new threat has emerged. The extreme weather has seen water levels in Sichuan's hydropower reserves as much as 50% this month, according to report, prompting the shuttering of factories (hub for solar panels, cement, and urea). Dazhou, a city of nearly 3.5 mln people, imposed a 2 1/2-hour power cuts this week that were expanded to three hours yesterday. Office buildings in Chengdu, the provincial capital, were barred from using air conditioning. Many areas in central and northern China imposed emergency measures to ensure the availability of drinking water. The heat and drought threaten summer crops and risk greater food-driven inflation. At the same time, Shanxi, which provides about a quarter of China's coal is worried about floods, it has suspended the operation of more than 100 mines since June. The government-imposed measures to boost output and Shanxi coal output rose by around 16% in H1.  The dollar is confined to a narrow range, straddling the JPY135 area  It has held `below last week's high around JPY135.60 and above the JPY134.55, where options for $700 mln expire today. The Australian dollar has been sold aggressively this week. It began near $0.7115 and tested $0.6900 today, meeting the (50%) retracement objective of the rally from the mid-July low (~$0.6880). It was only able to make a marginal new low today, suggesting that the selling pressure has abated. The next retracement (61.8%) is closer to $0.6855. Initial resistance is seen around $0.6950. After slipping a little yesterday, the greenback returned to its recent highs against the Chinese yuan around CNY6.7960. This year's high was set in May near CNY6.8125. Between Covid lockdowns, the weather disruptions, and the continued unwinding of the property bubble, a weaker yuan may the path of least resistance. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.7802 compared with expectations from Bloomberg's survey of CNY6.7806. The yuan is falling for the sixth consecutive month against the dollar. Europe The eurozone may not have completed its banking and monetary union, but the ECB said that it would harmonize how banks offer crypto assets and have sufficient capital and expertise  Crypto companies have negotiated with national authorities in several EMU member countries, but common EU licensing rules are unlikely any time soon. There is a patchwork of differing national rules, and in some countries, some types of crypto activity may require a banking license, for example. Norway's central bank hiked its deposit rate by 50 bp and indicated it would "most likely" lift rates again next month What makes today's move somewhat more aggressive that it may appear is that the hike took place at a meeting that did not include an economic update and projections for the future path of policy. Norges Bank acknowledged that the policy rate trajectory would be faster than projected in June and the inflation risks being higher for longer. The deposit rate now sits at 1.75%. Another 50 bp hike next month (September 22) seems likely followed by a 25 bp move in November, the last meeting of the year. The euro briefly popped a little above $1.02 on what was initially seen as dovish FOMC minutes in the North American afternoon yesterday  However, it returned to yesterday's lows low near $1.0145 before finding a bid. The week's low was set Tuesday slightly below $1.0125, which is ahead of the retracement objective we identified near $1.0110. The euro is consolidating as the US two-year premium over Germany falls to its lowest level in a nearly a month (2.54%), and almost 25 bp below the peak seen after the US jobs data on August 5. Labor disputes are crippling UK trains, buses, subways, and a key container port today. Sterling slipped to $1.1995, its lowest level since July 26. The nicking of the neckline of a possible double top was not a convincing violation and sterling has recovered to the $1.2060 area in the London morning. If this is not the peak in sterling, it seems close. Tomorrow, the UK is expected to report a decline in July retail sales, excluding gasoline. This measure of retail sales rose by 0.4% in June, the first increase since last October. The median forecast (Bloomberg survey) is for a 0.3% fall. The swaps market is pricing in a 50 bp hike at the mid-September BOE meeting and about a 1-in-5 chance of a 75 bp move. America US interest rates softened and dragged the dollar lower following the release of the FOMC minutes  The market seems to have focused on the concern of "many" members that it could over-tighten but there was no sign that this was going to prevent them for raising rates further. Indeed, it suggest that the risk of inflation expectations becoming embedded was greater. More hikes were appropriate, the minutes said, and a restrictive stance may be required for "some time". The minutes also played the recent pullback in commodity prices as an indicator of lower inflation, which it still says the evidence is lacking. When everything was said and done the September Fed funds futures were unchanged for the fourth consecutive session. Autos and gasoline held by retail sales in July, but excluding them, retail sales rose by 0.7%, matching the June increase  The core measure, which also excludes building materials and food services rose a solid 0.8%. Retail sales account for around 40% of personal consumption expenditures. The July PCE is due next week (August 26) and picks up service consumption too. The early call is for it to rise by 0.5%. However, it too is a nominal report, and in real terms, a 0.3%-0.4% gain would be a strong showing. The retail sales report lent credence to anecdotal stories about department stores discounting prices to move inventory. Amazon's Prime Day (July 12-13) was claimed to be the biggest so far. Online sales overall surged 2.7%. Today's data includes weekly jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed survey, existing home sale, and the index of Leading Economic Indicators  Th four-week average of weekly jobless claims rose to 252k in the week ending August 5. Recall the four-week moving average, used to smooth out some of the noise bottomed in the week ending April 1 at 170.5k. They averaged around 238k in December 2019, which was the highest since the first half of January 2018. Continuing claims have edged higher in recent weeks, but at 1.428 mln, they are roughly 20% below the peak at the start of this year. The Philadelphia Fed survey is particularly interesting today because of the disastrous Empire State survey. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey is for a -5 reading after -12.3 in July. Meanwhile, existing home sales have fallen for five months through June. In fact, new home sales have been fallen every quarter since the end of 2020, with the exception of Q3 21. They fell by an average of 1.7% in Q1 22 and 3.8% in Q2 22. The median forecast is for a nearly 5% decline in July. The market tends not to get excited about the leading economic index series. Economists expected the fifth consecutive decline. The only month it rose this year was February. The US dollar extended its recovery against the Canadian dollar to reach almost CAD1.2950, its highest level since August 8 today  It was pressed lower by new offers in the European morning that drove it back to almost CAD1.2900. The market may take its cues from the S&P 500 and the general risk appetites in the North American session. With the intraday momentum indicators stretched, yesterday's post-FOMC minutes low near CAD1.2880 may offer sufficient support. The greenback rose to a five-day high against the Mexican peso yesterday around MXN20.09. It is consolidating and straddling the MXN20.00 area. Our reading of the technical condition favors the dollar's upside, and the first important target is near MXN20.20. The US dollar gapped higher against the Brazilian real yesterday and approached the BRL5.22 area, where the 20-day and 200-day moving averages converge. The opening gap was closed late on the pullback spurred by the reading of FOMC minute headlines. The price action is similar to the peso, where the dollar has traded heavily since last month but appears to have found a bottom. A break above BRL5.22 would target the month's high near BRL5.3150.       Disclaimer   Source: Fed Minutes were Not as Dovish as Initially Read
Saxo Bank Podcast: Nvidia And Siemens Earnings, The Budget Statement From UK And More

Online Gaming Is Still The Biggest Source Of Income. Diablo Immortal Is The Most Downoloaded Game On The IOS

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 18.08.2022 17:14
NetEase is a Chinese technology company that operates in three segments - online games, search engine (Youdao) and online music (Cloud Music). The company operates both in China and internationally. It is famous for games such as 'The Lord of the Rings: Rise to War', 'Vikingard', 'Lifeafter' and 'Knives Out'. Its shares have fallen more than 10% since the beginning of the year, along with other companies in the Chinese technology sector, by the Chinese government's ambiguous action in the area of interference in their operations, fears of delisting in the US and deteriorating economic indicators in China. However, it is fair to say that its price has still proved to be far more resilient to the issues mentioned above than those of Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu. The company's revenue was 23.2 billion renminbi (US$3.5 billion) in the second quarter, growing 12.8 % year-on-year, slightly beating Wall Street analysts' expectations. Cloud Music revenue grew the most to 2.2 billion renminbi ($327.2 million), rising 29.5% year on year. Online gaming remains the most important revenue stream, with Q2 revenue of 18.1 billion renminbi ($2.7 billion). This increased by 15% compared to the same period a year ago. This was mainly due to the debut of Diablo Immortal, co-developed by NetEase with Blizzard Entertainment. According to the company's report, it became the most downloaded game on the IOS platform in some regions. Major franchise titles had their longevity extended, including the fantasy series Westward Journey and Westward Journey Online, as well as Identity V and Infinite Lagrange. "Players continued to gravitate to our longstanding games in the second quarter, highlighting our strength in game operations longevity. Moreover, the launch of Diablo® Immortal™ attracted the attention of gamers around the world, showcasing our exceptional mobile game development capabilities" - stated CEO William Ding. Revenue fell sharply in the Youdao area, down 29.5% year on year. However, this is the smallest source of revenue and only amounted to 956.2 million renminbi ($142.8 million) in the quarter. Q2 saw a net profit of $790 million, due to lower costs of player retention costs compared to new player acquisitions. Earnings per share (EPS) for those listed in New York were $1.22 on an adjusted basis, beating analysts' estimates by 17 cents. NetEase shares gained almost 3% before the market opened. Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: NetEase increases profits despite declining revenues
Apple Stock Price (APPL) May Be Fluctuating Next Week As iPhone 14 Is Said To Be Revealed

Apple Stock Price (APPL) May Be Fluctuating Next Week As iPhone 14 Is Said To Be Revealed

FXStreet News FXStreet News 01.09.2022 16:33
AAPL stock falls again on Wednesday as the sell-off continues. Equities remain under pressure ahead of the employment report on Friday. AAPL stock also waiting for next week's iPhone 14 release details. Apple (AAPL) stock continued its recent run of poor form as the stock once again closed lower on Wednesday. Apple has now registered three straight days of losses as equity markets come to terms with Fed Chair Jerome Powell utilizing himself last week. The doveish tilt that the market seemed to imply was firmly rebutted by Powell, and the equity market has been under continued selling pressure ever since. Also read: Apple Stock Deep Dive: AAPL price target at $100 on falling 2023 revenues Apple stock news Apple investors are now looking to next week for a catalyst to stem recent losses. September 7 is when most observers expect the iPhone 14 to be released. Details around pricing will be the key aspect, and as ever Wall Street analysts have been coming out with more and more bullish prospects. The latest from Bank of America says a price hike for the iPhone 14 over the iPhone 13 could see a boost to earnings in the region of $0.10 to $0.20 on EPS. It seems demand for iPhones will remain inelastic in the eyes of Wall Street, while clearly, the consumer looks to be shifting to lower-cost goods from what we have seen recently from retailers. iPhones are a luxury good and should see a slowdown in demand based on price hikes and inflationary trends. Margins will come under pressure from rising input costs, and the situation in China looks increasingly bearish. The property sector is beginning to falter alarmingly. The only Apple bullish caveat to add is the potential for massive monetary easing from China. We saw how the loose US policy juiced financial assets during the pandemic, and China may embark on its own financial juicing if the economy continues to decline. We do not think this will be enough to stem earnings compression for Apple though. The strong US dollar is another headwind for a firm that does business globally but reports in dollars. Apple stock forecast Enough of the long-term prognosis. How are we shaping up for some swing trading? Ok, first take a look at the AAPL stock daily chart. The downtrend continues with failure at the 200-day moving average, a continued sell-off from the overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) and now support from the 50-day moving average. Below $171 looks bearish. AAPL daily chart The AAPL stock 15-minute chart below shows the areas of stability and high volume. Current levels around $158 are seeing stabilization. A move above $162 or below $156 will see further buying or selling pressure, so this range is key to playing a breakout scenario. AAPL 15-minute
According to ING, US Producer Price Index may mean that inflation could decrease earlier

Fed's Jerome Powell Speaks On Thursday, Apple Presents iPhone 14 Soon! Wow! There Are A Lot Of Events Next Week!

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 02.09.2022 22:09
US The countdown to the September 13 inflation report begins as investors fixate over a wrath of Fed speak, with special attention going towards Chair Powell’s Thursday discussion on monetary policy. It is a slow start to the trading week as US markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. Tuesday contains the release of the August ISM services index. Service sector activity is expected to show a modest decline but remain in expansion territory. US trade data will be released on Wednesday, but most of the attention will fall on Lael Brainard’s speech on the economic outlook and the release of the Fed’s Beige Book. Michael Barr will also speak on financial system fairness.  Powell’s speech on Thursday could be massive as it will be his first time speaking since the Jackson Hole Symposium.  Wall Street is keeping a close eye on initial jobless claims as we still have yet to see any signs of trouble with the labor market as layoffs remain low.  Friday’s Fed speak contains appearances by Charles Evans and Christopher Waller.   Earnings season is finishing up, but stocks will definitely remain in focus as more investors are becoming bearish.  Apple’s launch event could be huge as they will unveil the iPhone 14 lineup and the next round of smartwatches.    EU  There’s no doubt about what the focus next week will be; the only question on everyone’s mind is will it be 50 basis points or 75? Markets are increasingly favouring the latter despite the ECB previously hinting at the former. That said, prior to the July meeting they effectively told everyone the first hike would be 25 basis points before opting for 50 so we can probably take things with a pinch of salt for now. Other than that, there’s a selection of tier two and three data including final services PMIs, retail sales and revised GDP. UK  The UK is heading for a recession, one the Bank of England has seen coming for a long time. When it released its forecasts in August, they looked quite shocking. Since then, expectations have lowered further which will make the Monetary Policy Report Hearing on Wednesday all the more interesting. That aside, we’ll hear from Catherine Mann on Monday and then it’s mostly tier two and three data including final services PMI, construction PMI and consumer inflation expectations. Russia Swift action by the CBR after the invasion meant that not only is inflation not the problem many expected it to be, but the central bank has actually been able to cut interest rates below where they were before in order to try and support the economy. CPI data next week could tell us how much further room the central bank has to cut and ease pressure on the currency. South Africa A relatively quiet week with GDP data on Tuesday the only major release. Regardless of the number, a large rate hike, perhaps 75 basis points, is likely on the cards in a few weeks. Turkey Inflation is expected to surpass 80% shortly after the CBRT decided to continue its easing cycle with a 1% rate cut to 13%. With the central bank refusing to accept responsibility for soaring inflation, the sky’s the limit. Switzerland Data last week showed inflation accelerating faster than expected, increasing pressure on the SNB to hike more forcefully. Barring an inter-meeting hike, the focus next week will be on the GDP and unemployment data. China This will be a busy week in China as investors keep a close eye on the Chengdu shutdowns and a wrath of economic data that could confirm the trend of weakening economic activity.  FX traders are also closely monitoring the yuan and the possible breach of the 7-handle.  China’s trade data could provide more information on how quickly demand is weakening. Both imports and exports are expected to soften, while government stimulus should provide a boost for aggregate social financing.   India Next week brings the services PMI reading for August. Strong economic data releases will allow the RBI to hike rates even further.     Australia & New Zealand The greenback’s relentless rally has taken the Australian dollar and kiwi to seven-week lows. The global bond market selloff is being led by a surge in Treasury yields and that’s kept the interest rate differential widely in the greenback’s favour. This week a wrath of economic releases will take a backseat to the RBA rate decision. The RBA may downshift to a slower pace of tightening with only a 25 basis point rate increase.  The bank has raised rates by 175 basis points over the last four meetings, but given the grim outlook, a smaller rate hike could be justified. At the beginning of the week, Australia will release services PMI data, inflation readings, ANZ job advertisements, and current account data.  Second quarter GDP is expected to show a slight improvement and will be released after the RBA decision.   Economic releases and speeches will be limited for New Zealand.  RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk will speak on Wednesday. The ANZ commodity price index for August will be released on Monday.  A few other third-tier economic releases will also come out in the latter part of the week.     Japan The divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the Bank of Japan may continue to drive the yen’s depreciation against the dollar.  The Japanese yen has been struggling as central banks globally remain very hawkish in fighting inflation.  The BOJ may need a slight change to their policy which could eventually lead to the abandoning of Yield Curve Control (YCC), but that would require a major reversal of BOJ Gov Kuroda’s decade-long stance of super loose policy.   Several important economic indicators will be released over the next week including the services PMI, household spending, the final reading of second-quarter GDP, current account, bank lending, and the eco watchers survey.   Singapore There are no major data or risk events in Singapore next week. The Singapore dollar is gaining a lot of attention on Wall Street as many big banks anticipate that Singapore’s central bank (MAS) will extend policy tightening.   Economic Calendar Saturday, Sept. 3 Economic Events Global energy crisis in focus as the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline is scheduled to reopen after Russia’s unscheduled maintenance Sunday, Sept. 4 No major economic events scheduled Monday, Sept. 5 Economic Data/Events US markets closed for Labor Day New UK PM is announced Thailand CPI  Singapore global PMI, retail sales India services PMI Australia inflation gauge, job advertisements, inventories, services PMI China Caixin services PMI Eurozone retail sales, services PMI Japan PMI New Zealand commodity prices Switzerland GDP Taiwan foreign reserves OPEC+ meeting on output Ukrainian PM Shmyhal attends the EU-Ukraine Association Council meeting in Brussels BOE Monetary Policy Committee member Mann speaks UK Finance publishes its quarterly household finance review of activity Tuesday, Sept. 6 Economic Data/Events RBA rate decision: Expected to raise interest rates by 50bp to 2.35% Australia BoP Germany factory orders Japan household spending Mexico international reserves South Africa GDP US primary elections scheduled in Massachusetts Wednesday, Sept. 7 Economic Data/Events US trade Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr speaks at an event hosted by the Brookings Institution Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks on Market News International webcast The Fed releases its Beige Book of regional economic activity Eurozone GDP Australia GDP, foreign reserves Canada rate decision: Expected to raise interest rates by 75bps to 3.25% Poland rate decision: Expected to raise interest rates by 25bps to 6.75% Germany industrial production China trade, foreign reserves Singapore reserves Japan leading index, coincident index Apple event, dubbed “Far Out” is expected to feature new iPhones and Apple watches BOE Governor Bailey appears before the Treasury Committee Thursday, Sept. 8 Economic Data/Events ECB rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 50bps to 1.00% US initial jobless claims Fed’s Powell speaks at Cato Institute Mexico CPI  Australia trade France trade Japan GDP, BoP New Zealand manufacturing activity South Africa current account, manufacturing production Thailand consumer confidence Chicago Fed President Evans President speak at College of DuPage economic forum Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Kashkari speaks at the “Toward an Inclusive Recovery” virtual event RBA Governor Lowe speaks at the annual Anika Foundation lunch in Sydney EIA crude oil inventory report Friday, Sept. 9 Economic Data/Events US wholesale inventories Russia CPI, GDP  France industrial production Mexico industrial production Canada unemployment China CPI, PPI, aggregate financing, money supply, new yuan loans Japan money stock New Zealand truckometer heavy traffic index, card spending Thailand foreign reserves, forward contracts EU energy ministers extraordinary meeting to tackle energy crisis in Brussels President Biden travels to the new Intel facility in Ohio to discuss the Chips Act Sovereign Rating Updates Finland (Fitch) Netherlands (Fitch) Norway (S&P) Portugal (S&P) Ukraine (S&P) This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Week Ahead - Rate Hikes Keep Coming - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Saxo Bank Podcast: Tightness In The Commodity Markets, Apple Plans To Purchase US-Made Chips And Much More

Tech Stocks: Apple Stock Price (APPL) - Bulls May Reach Almost $190!

Jing Ren Jing Ren 05.09.2022 12:55
  AAPL (Apple Stock): Wave ⑤ is the final leg in a large cycle impulse a. As in the previous review, which was a few weeks ago, AAPL suggests the development of the primary fifth wave, taking the form of an ending diagonal (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5) of the intermediate degree. Wave ⑤ is the final leg in a large cycle impulse a. Most likely, the market has completed the construction of an intermediate correction (4) in the form of a minor triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z. Thus, now the price is moving up, in the intermediate wave (5). It is assumed that wave (5) will take the form of a standard zigzag A-B-C, as shown on the chart, where wave A is a minute impulse. It is possible that the bulls in wave (5) will go to 189.34. At that level, wave (5) will be equal to wave (3). Alternative Scenario An alternative scenario assumes that the cycle wave a is fully completed. Thus, in the last section of the chart, we see a downward corrective movement of the stock price in a cycle wave b, which may take the form of a double zigzag â“Œ-Ⓧ-â“Ž of the primary degree. It seems that the first two primary sub-waves â“Œ-Ⓧ have already been formed. There is a high probability that the bears in the final sub-wave â“Ž, in the form of an intermediate simple zigzag, will be able to bring the market to 118.80. At that level, primary wave â“Ž will be at 100% of wave â“Œ. We will add this pair on our watchlist.
The Price  Of The GBP/USD Pair Has To Overcome The Important Support

UK Inflation Is The Highest In Decades!!! China Still Closing Factories, Toyota And Apple Are In Danger?

Saxo Strategy Team Saxo Strategy Team 18.08.2022 09:48
Summary:  U.S. equities took a pause from their week-long advance, with S&P 500 retreating before its 200-day moving average. Target’s Q2 results disappointed as the retailer suffered from high inventories and U.S. consumers shifted from discretionary to grocery items. What is happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I)  U.S.’s advance higher took a pause yesterday amid higher bond yields and disappointing results from Target (TGT:xnys), -2.7%. Target’s Q2 earnings fell sharply and missed consensus expectations on weaker gross margins due to slower sales in discretionary items and inventory impairments.  Lowe’s (LOW:xnys) reported mixed results, with earnings beating estimates but same-store sales growth weaker than expected. Higher U.S. bond yields triggered by a dramatic rise in U.K. bond yields and reported pension fund rebalancing-related selling added to the equity weakness.  S&P 500 dropped 0.7% and Nasdaq 100 shed 1.2%.  U.S. treasury yields rose from spilling over from a massive rise in U.K. Gilt yields and weak 20-year bond auction U.S. 10-year treasury yields jumped 9bps to 3.05%, taking cues from the sharp move higher in U.K. Gilts and European sovereign bond yields following white-hot UK CPI data. Long-end yields moved further higher on poor results from the 20-year auction.  Short-end yields fell in the late afternoon after the July FOMC minutes signaling that it “would become appropriate at some point to slow the pace of policy rate increases” which reaffirmed the market’s expectation of a 50bps, instead of 75bps on the September FOMC.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIQ2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index bounced modestly by 0.5%; CSI399 gained 9.6%. Meituan (03690:xhkg) rallied 3.3% after a 9% drop yesterday due to a Reuters story suggesting that Tencent (00700:xhkg) plans to divest its 17% stake (USD24 billion) in Meituan. Tencent denied such a divesture plan last night.  Power tools and floor care equipment maker and a supplier to Home Depot (HD:xnys) and Wal Mart (WMT:xnys), Techtronic Industries (00669:xhkg) jumped more than 10% after better-than-expected results from the two U.S. retailers. China Resources Power (00836:xhkg) +5.7% after reporting weak 1H22 results but more wind and solar projects on the pipeline. Other Chinese power producers also outperformed amid power shortages. China Power (02380:xhkg) surged more than 8%. On Tuesday, China’s Premier Li Keqiang visited Shenzhen and held a meeting with provincial chiefs from Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Henan, and Sichuan to reiterate the central government’s push for full use of policies to stabilize the economy. Hong Kong Exchanges (00388:xhkg) fell 1.6% after reporting lower revenues, higher costs, and a 22% YoY decline in EPS, worse than market expectations. After the market close, Tencent reported weak but in line with expectations revenues and better-than-feared earnings in Q2. Tencent’s ADR climbed 3.5% overnight from the Hong Kong close. AUDUSD eying the labor market report, GBP will see more pain ahead A mixed session again overnight for the US dollar with FOMC minutes and US retail sales failing to provide any fresh impetus to the markets. AUDUSD was the biggest loser on the G10 board, sliding below 0.7000 to lows of 0.6911 after real wage data for Q2 showed a massive slump. Labor market data due this morning could further weigh on RBA expectations, if it comes out softer than expected. The weakness seen in the commodity markets, especially iron ore and copper, weighed on the antipodeans. GBPUSD stays above 1.2000 despite a 40bps gains in UK 2-year yields after the double-digit UK CPI print. USDJPY tested the resistance at 135.50 but was rejected for now. Crude oil prices (CLU2 & LCOV2) Crude oil prices made a slight recovery overnight, with WTI futures getting back to over $87/barrel and Brent futures close to $94 after data showed US inventories fell sharply. Sentiment was also supported by comments from OPEC’s new Secretary-General, Haitham Al Ghais, who said that world oil demand will rise by almost 3mb/d this year. He also said there is a high chance of a supply squeeze this year, in part because fears of slowing usage in China are exaggerated. This helped to take the focus off the prospects of the Iran nuclear deal for now. What to consider? Stale FOMC minutes hint at sustained restrictive policy Fed’s meeting minutes from the July meeting were released last night, and officials agreed to move to restrictive policy, with some noting that restrictive rates will have to be maintained for some time to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Still, there was also talk of slowing the pace of rate hikes ‘at some point’, despite pushing back against easing expectations for next year. The minutes were broadly in-line with the market’s thinking, and lacked fresh impetus needed to bring up the pricing of Fed’s rate hikes. Chairman Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium next week will be keenly watched for further inputs. US retail sales were a mixed bag July US retail sales are a little softer at the headline level than the market expected (0% growth versus the +0.1% consensus) but the ex-auto came in stronger at 0.4% (vs. -0.1% expected). June’s growth was revised down to 0.8% from 1%. The mixed data confirmed that the US consumers are feeling the pinch from higher prices, but have remained resilient so far and that could give the Fed more room to continue with its aggressive rate hikes. Lower pump prices and further improvements in supply chain could further lift up retail spending in August. UK CPI opens the door for another 50bps rate hike UK headline inflation hits 10.1%, the highest in decades and above the 9.8% expected and for the month-on-month reading of +0.6%, higher than the +0.4% expected. Core inflation hit 6.2% vs. 5.9% expected and 5.8% in Jun. That matched the cycle high from back in April. Retail inflation rose +0.9% MoM and +12.3% YoY vs. +0.6%/+12.0% expected, respectively. The Bank of England has forecast that inflation will peak out this fall at above 13%. While the central bank forecasted a recession lasting for five quarters at the last meeting, it will be hard for them to not press ahead with further tightening at the August meeting, and in fact the scope for another 50bps rate hike is getting bigger. Reserve Bank of New Zealand hikes 50 basis points to 3.00%, forecasts 4% policy rate peak The RBNZ both increased and brought forward its peak rate forecast to 4.00%, a move that was actually interpreted rather neutrally – more hawkish for now, but suggesting that the RBNZ would like to pause after achieving 4.00%. RBNZ Governor warned in a press conference that New Zealand home prices will continue to fall. This is actually a desired outcome after a huge spike in housing speculation and prices due to low rates from the pandemic response and massive pressure from a Labor-led government that had promised lower housing costs were behind the RBNZ’s quick pivot and more aggressive hiking cycle in 2021. Australian wages grew at their quickest pace in eight years, but less than expected Australia’s wage-price index gained 0.7% in the second quarter, just shy of estimates further pressuring the Aussie dollar back toward its 50-day moving average against the US dollar. Annual wage growth came in at 2.6% but real wages - adjusted for headline inflation fell 1% QoQ, and was 3.3% lower than a year earlier, eroding consumer spending power. What’s next. All eyes will be on Australia’s Reserve Bank which might be pressured to hike more than expected at its September meeting. Despite Australian wages growing slower than expected, the RBA estimates retail gas and electric prices to rise 10-15% in the second half of the year, so that will be a focus point when they consider their next move in interest rates. Tencent reported weak but in-line Q2 revenues and better-than-feared earnings Tencent reported a revenue decline of 3% YoY in Q2, weak but in line with market expectations.  Non-GAAP operating profit was down 14% YoY to RMB 36.7 billion and EPS fell 17% YoY to RMB2.90 but they beat analyst estimates.  Revenues from advertising, -18% YoY, were better than expected.  In the game segment, weaker mobile game revenues were offset by stronger PC game revenues. Disappointing results from Target and mixed results from Lowe’s Target reported EPS of USD0.39, missing estimates.  The company indicated strength in food and beverage, beauty, and household essentials but weaker in discretionary categories.  Gross margin of 21.5%, down from 30.4% year-ago quarter and below expectations. Lowe’s reported better than expected EPS of USD4.67 (vs consensus USD4.58) but a decline of 0.3% in same-store sales.  Lowe’s inventories grew 11.6% YoY, substantially lower than peer Home Depot.  With a 15% increase in product costs, the inventory volume was in effect down low-single digit. Power crunch in China shut factories Chongqing is limiting power supply to industrial users from yesterday to next Wednesday.  In Sichuan, Foxconn’s Chengdu factory is suspending operations for six days from August 15 to 20 due to a regional power shortage. The suspension is affecting Foxconn’s supply of iPad to Apple.  The company says the impact “has been limited at the moment” but it may affect shipments if the power outage persists.  The Chengdu government is imposing power curbs on industrial users to ensure electricity supply for the city’s residents.  Toyota and CATL are also suspending some operations in Sichuan due to a power shortage. Foxconn has started test production of the Apple watch in Vietnam Foxconn has started test production of the Apple watch in its factories in Vietnam. With the passage of CHIPS and Science Act earlier this month in the U.S., investors are monitoring closely if Taiwanese and Korean chipmakers as well as their customers may be accelerating the building up of production capacity away from China.  World’s biggest Sovereign Wealth fund posts its biggest half-year loss on record   Norway’s oil fund, the world’s biggest owner of public traded companies lost 14.4% in the six months through to June. In currency terms that’s $174 billion. The slump was driven by the fund’s loss in technology stocks with Meta Platforms (owning Facebook and Instagram) and Amazon, leading the decline. However, just like the market, the fund’s energy sector delivered positive share price performance, benefiting from a sharp rise in earnings in the oil, gas, and refined energy product sector. Meanwhile, investments in logistics property helped the fund’s unlisted real estate holdings gain 7.1%, though they account for 3% of its assets. Japan’s inflation will surge further Japan’s nationwide CPI for July is due to be reported at the end of the week. July producer prices came in slightly above expectations at 8.6% y/y (vs. estimates of 8.4% y/y) while the m/m figure was as expected at 0.4%. The continued surge reflects that Japanese businesses are waddling high input price pressures, and these are likely to get passed on to the consumers, suggesting further increases in CPI remain likely. More government relief measures are likely to be announced, while any little hope for a Bank of Japan pivot is fading. Bloomberg consensus estimates are calling for Japan’s CPI to accelerate to 2.6% y/y from 2.4% previously, with the ex-fresh food number seen at 2.4% y/y vs. 2.2% earlier. For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: APAC Daily Digest: What is happening in markets and what to consider next – August 18, 2022
Apple's Stock Price Reaction To The Release Of New Products

Apple Stock Price Plunged On Friday! When Is The iPhone 14 Coming Out? iPhone 14 Is Expected To Be Announced Next Week!

FXStreet News FXStreet News 30.08.2022 02:25
AAPL stock falls nearly 4% Friday on global equity sell-off. Jackson Hole hawkish tilt behind sell-off. Apple sends out invites for an event on September 7. Apple (AAPL) stock fell sharply on Friday in line with a global rout in equities. The strongly worded hawkish missive from Fed Chair Powell did the trick and sent equity markets into a risk-off tailspin. Not just equity markets, but all risk assets took a hit as the Nasdaq was the worst performer. Now over the weekend Bitcoin cracked below $20,000. Apple stock news Some conflicting positive and negative news for Apple has appeared over the past few sessions. Susquehanna was quite bullish last week in estimating iPhone 13 production would rise to 100 million from a previous 88 million. Overall Susquehanna looks for about an 8% sales growth versus last year for the iPhone. Meanwhile, Politico reported late last week that the DOJ is in the early stages of making an antitrust complaint against Apple and could bring a lawsuit as early as this year. Finally, September 7 looks like the launch date for the new iPhone 14. Reports claim Apple has sent out media invitations to an event on September 7, which it is widely assumed will be the product launch announcement. Apple stock forecast Equity markets look likely to be in for a tough Autumn after Powell carefully scripted the narrative on Friday. Remember, he had most of the summer to plan out what he wanted to say. So he knew the importance of citing Vockler, and he knew what he wanted to achieve when he used words like "pain" and "below trend growth". The plan was well thought out. He wants equity markets lower to hit demand and so bring inflation down. Whatever Apple does may struggle to overcome such a challenging macro backdrop. Apple does remain above its 200-day moving average but has failed at the trend line and to test previous highs above $179. First, we have a failure, but we need confirmation of a bearish trend now. That will come with a break of the 200-day moving average. Once that is in place, then the target needs to be a break of $129, the June lows. That is needed to maintain food for the bears. September is historically not a great one for Apple, and interestingly neither are product launches much of a catalyst for the share price. Apple stock chart, daily
It's Time To Meet iPhone 14! Apple Stock Price May Fluctuate Today!

It's Time To Meet iPhone 14! Apple Stock Price May Fluctuate Today!

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 07.09.2022 15:43
The three major US indices fell on Tuesday, the US yields spiked, and the dollar extended rally, as Americans returned from their Labor Day break. Europe opened in the negative. The rising yields helped the US dollar extend rally, of course. The US dollar index is now above the 110 mark; the USDJPY spiked to 144, the EURUSD slipped below the 0.99 mark, the pound failed to hold the 1.15 support, and gold is now below the $1700 level, again. Bitcoin on the other hand accelerated the selloff, and is now below the $19K mark, as the bears are eyeing the June support of around $17500. The stronger dollar is a growing headache, and we want to believe that the USD rally cannot continue forever, but if history is any guide, the US dollar could strengthen way more than now. If we go back to 80’s, when Volcker was hiking the interest rates at great speed to tame inflation, the US dollar also got very VERY strong. And unfortunately, other central banks’ hawkishness doesn’t tame the dollar appetite. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to hike ‘big’ for the 4th consecutive meeting today, and the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise its rates by 75bp tomorrow. But the euro looks bad, and the Loonie doesn’t look any better. In equities, everyone in Europe talks about the upcoming Porsche IPO, while Apple fans are holding their breath to find out the new iPhone14! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:22 Equities down, US yields & USD up 2:42 How far could the US dollar rally extend? 5:38 BoC, ECB to hike rates 6:28 US crude tests important support 7:05 Porsche will go public soon! 8:25 Apple reveals new iPhone today! Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #USD #rally #BoC #ECB #rate #hike #USD #EUR #GBP #JPY #CAD #Gold #XAU #Bitcoin #energy #crisis #crude #oil #Porsche #IPO #Apple #iphone14 #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH  
Apple's Stock Price Reaction To The Release Of New Products

Apple's Stock Price Reaction To The Release Of New Products

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 08.09.2022 16:02
On Wednesday, September 7, Apple's long-awaited event took place, at which new versions of the Cupertino company's products were presented. How did the company's US-listed shares react to the event? Apple Inc. unveiled the new iPhone 14, which has so-called safety features as standard. These include the ability to detect collisions and emergency SOS sending via satellite - a feature that allows users to send text messages in an emergency without access to cellular services. In addition, on Wednesday was the launch of the new AirPods Pro and Apple Watches. Apple's share price gained 1 percent on Wednesday, closing at $155.96. Better than the company itself, however, seemed to be the suppliers of components for the new products. Shares of Skyworks and Texas Instruments rose 1.7 percent, followed by Qualcomm, up 1.5 percent, and Qorvo, up 1.4 percent at the close of yesterday's session. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Apple CFD, D1 Apple stock price in recent times Apple's share price, after peaking in January 2022 in the area of $182, has retreated to the vicinity of $130 in early June. Currently, the share price seems to be in the middle of its annual fluctuation range, at $155. This gives the company a capitalization of $2.5 trillion, making it the largest in the world. In turn, the price-to-earnings ratio for Apple is 25, making it one of the largest in the last decade. In December 2020, this popular valuation ratio reached 35.40, while Apple's revenue for the quarter ended June 30, 2022 was $82.959 billion, up 1.87 percent from a year earlier. And Apple's revenue for the twelve months ended June 30, 2022 was $387.542 billion, up 11.63 percent from a year earlier. What is the outlook for Apple's stock price? According to the MarketScreener portal collecting recommendations from Wall Street analysts, the company has 26 buy recommendations, eight hold recommendations and zero sell recommendations. Institutions pointing to buy Apple shares include Credit Suisse with a target price of $201 and JP Morgan with a target price of $200. The average target price is $181.50, while the so-called Street High, or highest recommendation on Wall Street, is $220, and the Street Low is $130, according to Market Screener data. Source: Conotoxia MT5, MarketScreener - lowest, average and highest target price for Apple shares.   Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Zoom Video EPS beat market expectations. Next week's Eurozone CPI and the US GDP releases are going to attract investors' attention

Apple Stock Price Skyrockets! iPhone 14 Is Said To Be The Rocket Propeller!

FXStreet News FXStreet News 13.09.2022 16:08
Apple stock soars as new iPhone 14 boosts demand for the stock. iPhone 14 sales are reportedly strong despite some critics. Apple stock now soaring to near all-time highs. Apple (AAPL) stock began the week strongly when it dragged the main indices higher as the tech and overall market leader powered ahead by nearly 4%. By the close Apple reached $163.43, having briefly traded above $164 earlier on Tuesday. Apple stock news The stock was pushed higher on the back of a positive note from noted Apple analyst Dan Ives at Wedbush. We should also note he is largely bullish on Apple, which has been the consistently correct call. In a note, to the client, Ives said demand is solid and ahead of the iPhone 13. Also, customers appear to be going for the more expensive models – the iPhone Pro and Max models. Higher prices mean higher margins for Apple. "We expect this heavy Pro/Pro Max mix to continue with China also a major sway factor as more consumers in this key region head to the Pro model," Ives added. This will come as welcome news as some people have been openly stating that the new iPhone 14 does not have enough features to differentiate it from the iPhone 13 and so sway customers to switch. Yahoo Entertainment reported on a cheeky meme from Steve Jobs's daughter Eve. Apple stock forecast Regular readers will notice from the lack of a disclaimer at the bottom of this page that I have cut my short position. I did this last week thankfully before the rally got going. My take is more a macro view than stock specific. I cannot see the equity market making new lows now, and this rally looks set up to continue. CPI should decline when it is released today. Oil and commodity prices are much lower. That will further fuel the Fed pivot and soft landing theory, and so equities should keep rallying. It will take a few months of CPI releases before people realize this is not going to drop enough for the Fed to pivot. Apple has performed very nicely from a technical perspective of late. The strong summer rally saw a near-perfect 50% Fibonacci retracement before bouncing above the 50-day and now 200-day moving averages. The next target is now $171.40 to fill the gap. The bullish pivot is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 50-day moving average at $158.32. Apple stock daily
Saxo Bank Podcast: Tightness In The Commodity Markets, Apple Plans To Purchase US-Made Chips And Much More

How Did The US Inflation Print Affect Tech Stocks? Check Apple Stock, Amazon And Other Companies' Reaction

FXStreet News FXStreet News 14.09.2022 16:41
META stock falls over 9% on Tuesday in a market meltdown. Nasdaq is down 5%, and S&P 500 is down 4% by comparison. Meta Platforms underperforms markedly versus main indices. Meta Platforms (META) stock fell sharply on Tuesday as the market digested the US CPI print. A higher than expected number led to a sharp sell-off in equities with all the main indices closing sharply lower. However, tech took the biggest brunt of the selling with Apple and Alphabet down 6%, amazon down 7%, and Meta Platforms down a whopping 9%. Meta Platforms stock news Why the big divergence from big tech? Usually, these are seen as haven plays. All are supposed to be cash generative. The problem is big tech is generally seen as having the most to lose from higher interest rates. This may be true for some but not all. The higher the growth rate of a stock, then the bigger effect a change in interest rates has on its performance. That is why FAANG was such an outsized performer during the Fed juiced says of monetary stimulus post-pandemic. Higher growth rates get discounted by the prevailing rate of interest. If those interest rates are forecast to rise, then the present value calculation gets reduced. Adding to tech pressure and especially for the aforementioned companies is the strength of the US dollar. These are global companies, many of whom generate more than half of their revenues in overseas currencies. When that overseas currency depreciates (think euro, yen, GBP, etc.), then all of a sudden those foreign revenues are worth less in dollar terms. This affects revenues and leads to the hilarious lines we see in corporate earnings reports – "in constant currency". When are currencies ever constant? Adding to the sentiment of Meta stock this morning is news that South Korea has fined it and Alphabet (GOOGL) over violation of privacy laws, according to Reuters. Meta Platforms stock forecast META is just on massive support at around $154. Breaking this, the next level is the pandemic low at $137. The double top at $184 keeps a lid on bulls, and only a break there begins to look interesting for the bearish narrative to end. META stock chart, daily
Could The Price Of Lithium Affect Tesla's Performance, Whitehaven Shares Are Up

Could The Price Of Lithium Affect Tesla's Performance, Whitehaven Shares Are Up

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 23.09.2022 13:43
Summary:  US earnings season is about to get underway, and Australia’s financial year reporting just wrapped up, so let's cover five hot stocks to watch. General Mills is the best performing US stock this week in the S&P500 after the Wheat price gained 24% in the month. Pilbara Minerals, is one of this week's best performers in the ASX after selling its lithium for a record price this week to China. Whitehaven Coal is another to watch, as it's benefiting from surging coal demand and prices, with its shares trading at brand new record highs in anticipation of another record profit. Lastly, we cover why Tesla and Apple are two of the most traded stocks at Saxo in September. General Mills  General Mills is the biggest wheat exporter in the US Its shares have been outperforming the market and are of the best performers in the US this year, up 22% Its shares are picking up momentum as the Wheat (WHEATDEC22) price has gained 24% in a month So what’s moving Wheat higher into a technical uptrend? South America wheat supply has been impacted by frost and rain, US supply is expected to fall due to dry conditions and drought in the US Heavy rains are headed for Australia for the third year in a row amid La Nina And lastly – with Russia mobilizing troops against Ukraine, this adds to supply concerns for Wheat, on concerns Ukraine’s export terminal could be shut once more. So General Mills is a stock to watch, as the wheat price rises, it boost its cashflow and share price growth.  Pilbara Minerals   Pilbara Minerals is Australia biggest exporter of lithium Its shares have gained almost 50% this year as the lithium price tripled in the last year, fueled by electric vehicle demand Pilbara Minerals auctioned off its lithium spodumene concentrate (or partly processed lithium) for a record price of AUD$7,708 with the shipment to go to China So who is buying Pilbara’s lithium? Two of Pilbara’s most known customers include China’s Genfeng and the car maker Great Wall. So what’s next? Well if the lithium price continues to rally amid the lack of supply and rising demand, Pilbara’s shares could stay elevated supported by expectations that higher cashflow and earnings growth are ahead. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast lithium demand to grow more than 40 times over the next two decades Pilbara operates on a Price to Earnings (PE) ratio of 25 times forward earnings estimates, which is comparatively cheaper than its peers. So Pilbara could be a stock to watch. Whitehaven Coal Whitehaven is Australia's biggest exporter of coal and the best performing stock in the global share market this year, among large companies Its shares are up 250% Last financial year Whitehaven's earnings rose 1,500% boosted by the coal price soaring to new record highs So what's next? The coal price is surging amid a lack of coal supply and rising demand  Demand for coal has been increasing as the world searches for cheap access to emergency energy Regions like India are experiencing a heat waves, while Australia has been hit by its coldest winter on record. The coal futures price, which is an indication of the future price of coal, is also continuing to move further higher into new record highs, simply telling us, that the spot coal price is likely to move higher yet again, as the world is facing a lack of energy reserves, and forward demand is also increasing. Peak coal demand season is December and January, so we expect the coal price to move higher as demand increases from coals biggest consumers (India and China) amid their winter.    Tesla   Tesla is one of most traded stocks at Saxo globally this month Across the world, Tesla electric vehicles are one of the most bought electric vehicles Its shares have had a bumpy ride this year, as the company’s been plagued by higher raw materials and commodity costs Although Tesla shares rallied up 50% from than their May low, there are now concerns some of those gains could fade, as the lithium price is back at record highs However on the positive side for Tesla;  Tesla is increasing some of its costs, such as increasing the price of supercharger station use in Europe And Tesla is controlling other costs where possible, by looking to make in-house battery cells As for new revenue streams; the Cybertruck’s production is set for mid-2023 Across Europe, Tesla is aiming to increase sales. For instance in Germany it wants to double sales growth, compared to last year, after opening new stores And in the US, across the entire electric vehicle market, all EV sales are expected to rise after the United States introduces new climate law and tax credits. Bloomberg estimates total EV industry sales will make up 52% of total car sales by 2030. That’s a huge jump compared to the 5% last year. And Tesla will be capturing some of this growth Tesla trades at a Price to Earnings (PE) ratio of 109 times forward earnings estimates, which make it looks expensive compared to Ford’s PE of 7 times. Given commodity prices are likely to continue to rise, and Bloomberg estimates suggest Tesla’s margins could be flat this year, before picking up in 2023, you might expect Tesla's shares be pressured before potentially rebounding later next year.   Apple   Apple is the one of the most traded stocks at Saxo globally this month Its shares have also had a bumpy ride, but its innovation should support the company’s shares growing in value over the long term Interestedly, Apple’s iPhone sales generate half of the group’s total revenue, and last quarter, total revenue stood at about $41 billion Apple's launch of its new iPhone, including its most expensive model yet, the iPhone 14 Pro model should also help next quarterly earnings. Why? Well iPhone 14 shipments are said to account 60-65% of orders, which is up from the previously estimated range of 55-60%. This means Apple could have a positive outlook when they release their next quarterly earnings in late October. Apples new watch and air pods should also bolster Apples outlook And going forward, Apple's customer retention is set to expand as it moves to a new subscription model. Apple estimates 98% of its customers want to upgrade their phone each year. So that’s a reason to perhaps consider Apple for the long term To find out more about the these companies or other opportunities, head to Saxo's Platform.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/looking-for-stocks-to-buy--here-are-five-to-watch-23092022
Saxo Bank Podcast: Protests In China, Lower Yields, Lower Crude Oil, Apple Risks A Further Haircut On The Risk And More

Podcast: Very Weak Global Sentiment And View Of Gold, Shares And Crude Oil

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 26.09.2022 11:52
Summary:  Today we look at very weak global sentiment as the US dollar and US treasury yields continue to soar, taking US equities to the key cycle lows as we wonder what shape the capitulation will take - a quick test and reverse or a more profound move driven by poor liquidity? Elsewhere, we note sterling's historic drop and suggest that it is time for the Bank of England to step in with an emergency rate hike - or else. Crude oil, gold, stocks to watch today (including Apple with some concern around iPhone 14 orders) and more are on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are found via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean engraver If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-sep-26-2022-26092022
Saxo Bank Podcast: Tightness In The Commodity Markets, Apple Plans To Purchase US-Made Chips And Much More

Could AAPL Hit $100? Tech Stocks: Apple Stock Price

FXStreet News FXStreet News 28.09.2022 15:33
Apple stock closed higher on Tuesday as markets gave up morning gains. AAPL looked to be forming a bottom. Initial reports from iPhone 14 orders looked strong. Apple (AAPL) stock looks to open lower on Wednesday as reports surface over production of the new iPhone 14. Hopes had been high that the new iPhone would provide a stimulus going into Q3 earnings, but now it appears that may not follow through. Apple stock news We hear reports from Bloomberg this morning that Apple has told suppliers not to try and increase production of the iPhone 14. Now it looks like an additional 5 to 6 million units will not be pushed ahead, and instead flat production of 90 million units seems more likely. Earlier reports had been positive with talk of strong preorders. There were also reports that orders were skewed to higher cost, higher margin models that would have had a positive flow straight down to Apple's bottom line. Now, this report puts that theory into question. As a reminder, we remain with our 12-month price target of $100 for Apple based on this very issue: lower margins and lower demand. Our key point from that deep dive was: "The tech giant faces supply chain headwinds, margin shrinkage and demand destruction in 2023." Apple stock forecast Apple stock looks set to open substantially lower on Wednesday, currently indicating below $147. This level becomes key. $147.25 is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the June lows at $129.04 to the high in August at $176.15. Holding this level is key. A break opens the door to testing the June lows and would seem more likely on a break. Holding could at least allow some calm, and investors would then likely wait for clarification from Apple's earnings on October 26. Earnings are historical, but it will be more important to hear from Apple how they are dealing with the surging US dollar and if they do indeed see a curtailing of demand. This move should also see the bearish divergence from the Relative Strength Index (RSI) come to an end. AAPL 1-day chart
Saxo Bank Podcast: Tightness In The Commodity Markets, Apple Plans To Purchase US-Made Chips And Much More

Apple Will No Longer Seek To Increase Production

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 08:37
The American stock market continues to be in a fever. If traders are trying to buy out cheaper assets on the premarket, one could observe another market sale of risky assets during the regular session recently. In a situation where the fragile balance of the Federal Reserve System between restraining demand sufficiently to slow inflation is a rather laborious process, many economists continue to predict a recession for the economy, discouraging the desire to buy risky assets. Statements by representatives of the US Federal Reserve System also do not betray optimism. Today, the president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Mary Daly, said: "To keep inflation low and stable, we must balance our mandate with full employment." "The attempt to cope with reducing inflation without harming the labor market has failed. While we are trying to do everything as gently as possible so as not to provoke an economic downturn, if this is not necessary, we are ready to act with full determination — this is a struggle." Daly's comments about the Fed's desire to reduce inflation echo the comments of some of her colleagues who spoke earlier. The head of the St. Louis Fed, James Bullard, warned that inflation is a "serious problem" and that confidence in the central bank is under threat. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said policymakers would not give up on fighting inflation, despite the pain it could cause the US economy. Premarket Apple's rejection of plans to increase production of its new iPhone 14 line led to a sharp collapse in shares in the premarket. The company made this decision after the expected surge in purchases of the new iPhone did not happen. Apple shares fell 3.7% in premarket trading. According to the report, Apple will no longer seek to increase production by 6 million units in the year's second half as planned. Instead, the company will aim to produce 90 million units, roughly in line with Apple's forecast and production volume for last year. The report also affected Apple's shipments and manufacturers. Shares of key chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing fell about 2.3% before the market opened. Shares of Hon Hai, also known as Foxconn, sank about 2.9%. Biogen shares rose 45.6% in premarket trading after the company announced that its experimental drug for Alzheimer's disease dramatically slowed the progression of the disease, reducing cognitive and functional impairments by 27%. Lyft has said it will suspend hiring until the end of this year. This follows the company's previous statement that it would "significantly" slow down hiring as it seeks to cut costs. Lyft shares fell 2.5% in premarket trading. Ocugen securities rose 8.2% in the premarket after the drugmaker announced a licensing agreement with Washington University in St. Louis for developing, commercializing, and producing its intranasal vaccine against Covid-19. BlackBerry reported smaller-than-expected quarterly losses and earnings that beat analysts' forecasts, but the cybersecurity communications software company's revenue fell amid weak customer spending. As for the technical picture of the S&P500, after yesterday's regular sell-off, traders managed to regain control of the $3,643 level today and have already set their sights on $3,677, which leaves hope for an upward correction. To build it up in an attempt to find the bottom, the bulls need to return to the level of not only $ 3,677 but also $3,704. Only after that will it be possible to count on a breakthrough in the area of $3,744. The breakdown of this range will support a new upward momentum, already aimed at the resistance of $3,773. The furthest target will be the area of $3,801. In the case of a downward movement, a breakdown of $3,643 will quickly push the trading instrument to $3,608 and open up an opportunity to update the support of $3,579. Below this range, you can bet on a larger sell-off of the index to a minimum of 3,544, where the pressure may ease a little.   Relevance up to 15:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322944
The Risk-off Mood In The Global Markets Has Strengthened

Bank Of England Intervention Boosts Risk Appetite And The Possible End Of The iPhone Era

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 29.09.2022 10:39
The Bank of England (BoE) jumped in the UK’s shattered sovereign market to buy long-term UK bonds yesterday, because apparently, they have been warned that collateral calls on Wednesday afternoon could force investors to further dump their UK sovereign holdings. And the UK could no longer afford another heavy selloff wave on its sovereigns. Will the enthusiasm last?  The British 10-year yield fell 10% yesterday, and the pound jumped past the 1.08 mark against the US dollar and consolidated below 0.90 against the euro. The FTSE recovered early losses and closed the session 0.30% higher, gold recovered to $1662 an ounce, American crude rallied past the $80 per barrel, also boosted by the Hurricane Ian’s negative impact on supply. Around 11% of the Gulf of Mexico production was halted due to the storm.The S&P500 gained almost 2% yesterday to above 3700 level, while Nasdaq jumped more than 2%. Will the enthusiasm last? Not so sure. Yesterday’s price action was a sugar rush, triggered by the BoE intervention. Enthusiasm will likely fall as the level of blood sugar falls across the financial markets. Amazon is on the rise Amazon jumped 3% as investors liked the new devices at Wednesday’s annual device event, and Apple slipped on announcement that it will, finally, not produce more iPhones compared to last years.In Europe, all eyes are on Porsche that starts flying with its own wings today! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:27 BoE finally jumps in 3:24 BoE intervention boosts risk appetite, but for how long? 5:30 Amazon convinces, Apple disappoints 8:54 Porsche is now up for grab! Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #BoE #intervention #UK #gilt #GBP #Hurricane #Ian #crude #oil #energy #crisis #XAU #FTSE #sovereign #bonds #rally #Apple #Amazon #Porsche #IPO #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
Elon Musk Introduces Verified Accounts On Twitter

It Is Clear That The Apple Is Not Immune To The Cost-Of-Living Crisis

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 29.09.2022 13:58
Summary:  We see 20% probability of earnings hitting current estimates, 10% exceeding estimates (with potential error coming from health care, energy surprise, and consumer staples sectors), and 70% for a significant miss to the downside followed up by gloomy outlook on margins. It seems to us that analysts are way behind factoring in developments that we are seeing financial markets. Let’s start with Apple and then move on to S&P 500. Apple That Apple is downgrading was partly priced in due to that report recently that their first three-day sales of iPhone 14 was trailing previous product introductions which we also wrote about in our QuickTake and said on our podcast earlier this week. The signals from Micron Technology, reporting today, have long indicated that a rapidly deteriorating environment for memory chips which are used in smartphones and other electronic devices. Apple FY22 Q4 (ending 30 September) earnings estimates are down 20% from the peak in March and that is before adjustments from Apple’s own warning. Apple EPS is expected at $1.26 up 1.4% y/y, but factoring in Apple’s warning it could be a decline of 5-10%. Revenue is expected at $88.5bn up 6.1% y/y compared to 1.9% y/y revenue growth in the previous quarter. It is quite likely that revenue could slip into negative growth for the quarter. Apple is the largest consumer company in the world with a vast supply chain and it is clear that the company is not immune to the cost-of-living crisis from the energy shock hurting consumers. It will have a big impact on the indices but also sentiment. Apple and Tesla are the two stocks that have held up well despite all the headwinds, and if these two stocks are finally coming down then the market may flip into severe negative. The company is valued at 5% free cash flow yield and forward P/E of 24x. Given where the US 10-year yield is headed and the cost-of-living crisis this company should probably be valued closer to 20x forward earnings, and thus there is a 15% downside potential, but if earnings are suddenly in decline then it could be closer to 20-25%. S&P 500 earnings Earnings estimates for Q3 are already down 7% from 1 July and that’s before Apple is factored in. Analysts are way off in their estimates for Q3. They expect a small decline in revenue despite high inflation! If you take the estimates for revenue and earnings then consensus is expecting the profit margin to expand to 13% - the highest recorded level in many decades. EPS estimate is $55.52 up from $54.54 in Q2. A more conservative view is more like revenue is up another 2.5% q/q and profit margin is down from 12.7% to 11.7% due to margin pressure in all sectors and even in energy and mining due to lower prices on energy and metals in Q3. If you square those two numbers then an average estimate is $51.70 or 7% lower than current consensus.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/q3-earnings-amid-apple-warning-29092022
Russian Missiles Fell To Poland | China Home Prices Fall

Market Focus Will Likely Be On Putin’s Warnings To The West, Nike (NKE) Reported Slightly Better Revenues And More

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 30.09.2022 08:37
Summary:  Fresh lows return in US equities with more hawkish Fed comments and fear of earnings downgrades picking up as the Q3 earnings season draws closer. Cable extended its rally despite UK PM’s commitment to fiscal plan and weakening BOE hike expectations, while the EUR gained strength on the back of hot German CPI and uptick in ECB rate hike expectations. Talks of OPEC+ production cuts are gaining momentum, and focus today will be on China PMIs. Also watch for Eurozone CPI, US PCE data as well as Putin’s speech in the day ahead. What is happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) fall to 22-month lows US stocks sank to their lowest levels since November 2020 after another round of Fed speakers continued with hawkish remarks, while oil maintained gains on expectations of OPEC+ cuts. Nasdaq 100 was down almost 4% at one point, but trimmed the losses before closing 2.9% lower, while the broader S&P500 met a similar fate nearing 3,600 before ending 2.1% down. All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 dropped, with Utilities falling the most and followed by Consumer Discretionary. Retail favorites Tesla (TSLA) and Apple  (AAPL)  led the declines falling 6.8% and 4.9% while chip makers followed with AMD (AMD) down 6.2% with PC demand falling away. On the upside, oil stocks like Devon Energy (DVN), and Diamondback Energy (FANG) and Occidental (OXY) moved higher. Separately the European Commission announced an eight package of sanctions that would include a price cap on Russia’s oil exports. U.S. treasury yields (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) climbed again After plunging sharply the day before on the Bank of England move, yields of U.S. treasury securities rose, with the 10-year note yields rising 6bps to 3.79% on Thursday.  Yields initially crept higher on bounces of U.K. Gilt yields and higher German regional CPI data, but paring their rise in the afternoon.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hong Kong and mainland equity markets opened higher on Thursday and pared the gain through the day and settled moderately lower, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.5%, and CSI300 little changed. The news of the imposition of a 3-day mandatory PCR test in the financial district, Lujiazui in Shanghai due to one new Covid-19 case triggered some fears among investors. In spite of PBoC’s supportive statement coming out from its quarterly monetary meeting saying that the central bank will expand its special lending program to ensure the delivery of delayed housing projects, Chinese developers declined, with Country Garden (02007:xhkg) plunging 11.6%, Longfor (00960:xhkg) down by 7.5%, and CIFI (00884:xhkg) tumbling 16.3%.  Chinese EV maker, Zhejian Leapmotor (09863:xhkg), tumbled 33.5% in its first day of trading after an IPO priced at the bottom of a guided range.  XPeng (09868:xhkg) dropped 5.3%.  Trading in the China Internet space was mixed with Alibaba outperforming (+2.9%). Australia’s ASX200 (ASXSP200.1) likely to follow Wall Street lower: futures suggest a 0.3% fall today, aluminum stocks to be bright spark As above, on the ASX today, it’s worth keeping an eye on aluminum related stocks on the ASX including Rio Tinto (RIO) and Alumina (AWC). Meanwhile, diversified miners including the major retail favorites, like BHP (BHP) are worth watching after the Iron Ore (SCOA) price remains supported with China ramping up housing support. This morning the iron ore price (SCOA, SCOV2) pushed up ~1.1% to US$96.50. In NY BHP closed 0.6% higher, implying the ASX primary listing of BHP will likely move up, especially after the aluminum and iron ore prices rose. Cable stays bid and Euro follows The US 10-year yields as well as the dollar could not catch a strong bid on Thursday, which helped other G10 currencies gain some ground. Sterling was the strongest on the G10 board, with GBPUSD now testing 1.12 in early Asian hours. BOE’s emergency bond-buying measures however hints at a push lower in gilt yields, and GBP will likely come back under pressure if the surge in global yield resumes. This will need a focus shift back on Fed tightening as we think there is still some room for upward repricing of terminal rate Fed expectations and higher-for-longer rates. Meanwhile, expectations for an ultra-aggressive BOE hike in November cooled slightly. EURUSD also surged above 0.98 with ECB rate hike expectations for October meeting picking up after the hot German inflation, and with the ECB downplaying the chance of an emergency move to prop up Italian bonds. EURGBP was however lower from 0.8950 to 0.88. Aluminum and aluminum stocks on watch It’s worth watching aluminium related shares across the Asian-Pacific region today after the record jump in Aluminum price on the LME after Bloomberg reported plans to discuss a potential ban on new Russian metal supplies. The metal jumped 8.5% (its biggest intraday jump in record) before paring back. Crude oil (CLU2 & LCOV2) prices maintain gains Crude oil prices maintained the momentum with OPEC+ production cuts becoming a key factor going into the next week’s meeting. OPEC+ commenced discussions around an output cut with one saying it a cut is “likely”, according to Reuters sources. This comes after previous reports that Russia will likely propose OPEC+ reduces output by around 1mln BPD. Demand conditions are likely to weaken as global tightening race heats up, and this has prompted expectations for a supply cut as well. Brent futures touched $90/barrel mark but reversed slightly later, while WTI futures rose to $83/barrel before some decline later in the session.   What to consider? German inflation sparks EZ inflation fears German inflation touched double digits, as it came above consensus at 10.9% YoY for September from 8.8% YoY previously. Germany is also preparing to borrow an additional €200 billion to finance a plan to limit the impact of soaring energy costs, which could keep consumption high even as shortages loom. Up today will be the September eurozone inflation print. Expect a new record which will increase the pressure on the European Central Bank to hike interest rates by at least 75 basis points in October. The economist consensus expects that the headline harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) will reach 9.7% YoY against 9.1% in August. The core rate is expected to climb to 5.6% YoY against 5.5% previously. The spread between the headline and the core inflation figures is mostly explained by a decrease in oil and natural gas prices in recent months. However, this is clear that inflation is becoming broad-based, including in the services sector. This means that inflation is here to stay for long. The HICP is likely to continue increasing in the coming months. A peak in inflation in the eurozone is possible in the first quarter of 2023, in our view. This is much later than in the United States. Fed speakers push for more hikes Loretta Mester remains more hawkish than the Fed’s median dot plot, and said that rate are not in restrictive territory yet and more rate hikes will be needed. No signs of concern on economy or dollar strength were noted, while inflation remained the key point of concern for her. James Bullard also made some key comments on ‘bad idea to mess’ with the inflation target while the labor market conditions remain tight and recession is only a risk. Mary Daly was more cautious, saying officials should work to avoid "inducing a deep recession." However, she still raised the bar on expectations on the Fed funds rate saying that she is comfortable with median Fed rate path projection of 4%-4.5% by year end, 4.5%-5% in 2023 (pointing to upside risks as the dot plot suggested 4.6%, or 4.5-4.75% if we talk in ranges). US initial claims come in strong again Initial claims came in lower than expected at 193k with last week’s also revised lower to 209k from 213k. Continued claims cooled to 1.347mln from 1.376mln despite the expected rise to 1.388mln. The data shows how tight the labour market is in the US and Fed's Bullard labelled today's claims metric as "super low". Meanwhile, the third estimate of Q2 GDP was confirmed to decline 0.6%, notably with consumer spending revised higher to 2% from 1.5% previously. Australian inflation rose 7% in the year to July, based on new monthly CPI At this rate it doesn’t appear CPI will peak at just shy of the 8% the RBA forecasts, given price pressures have resumed this month from the largest inflation contributors. Based on the ABS’s new monthly CPI print, some of the largest price jumps year-on-year to July were in fuel (+29.2%) and fruit & vegetables (+14.5%). The concern is that, with La Nina set to hit Australia and population growth continuing, food and housing (rent) prices will continue to rise apace. In September alone, contributors to food prices have risen markedly, as the global supply outlook has weakened amid poor crop conditions. This could tilt the RBA back toward a more hawkish stance. Australian rents to drive higher, adding to inflation woes Australia’s population growth resumed after borders reopened and business employment remains strong for the time being, at 50-year highs. New office and residential supply is expected be subdued in 2023 as interest rates rise; which supports the notion of falling vacancy rates. According to Colliers and the ABS, Sydney CBD rents rose 3.6% to $5.22 per square foot in the June quarter, driven by competition for top-quality office space. China’s manufacturing PMIs are expected to stay in the contractionary territory China’s September official NBS Manufacturing PMI and Non-manufacturing PMI as well as the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI are scheduled to release today. The median forecast of, economists surveyed by Bloomberg for the NBS Manufacturing PMI is 49.7 for September, a modest improvement from August’s 49.4 but remains in contraction territory.  Economists cite the lockdown of Chengdu and restrictive measures in some other cities during most part of the month and the weak EPMI released earlier as reasons for expecting the NBS Manufacturing PMI to stay below 50.  The Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which has a larger weight in coastal cities in the eastern region, is expected to remain at 49.5 as export-related manufacturing activities and container throughput were weak.  The consensus estimate for the NBS Non-manufacturing PMI is 52.4, staying in the expansionary territory, supported by infrastructure construction but slowing slightly in September from August’s 52.6 due to weakness in the housing sector.  On the other hand, steel production and demand data in September suggest the PMIs may potentially surprise the upside. Buying activity up in food and Agricultural instruments, stocks and ETFs Food prices are supported higher as the global crop outlook dampens for 4 reasons; concern lingers over Ukraine’s exports being cut off, South America has been hit by rains and frosts, the US has been plagued by drought and dry conditions and as Hurricane Ian made landfall in the, US conditions are likely to go from bad to worse. And lastly - La Nina is expected to hit Australia for the third year in a row. So we are seeing clients buy into Wheat and Corn. Both prices are up 20% off their lows. Secondly, buying has been picking up in agricultural stocks like General Mills (GIS) and GrainCorp (GNC). And lastly, clients are biting into agricultural ETFs like Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) and iShares MSCI Agricultural Producers ETF (VEGI). Fed preferred inflation measure, US PCE, on the radar today The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE is due today, and it will likely echo the same message as given by the last strong CPI number which has made the Fed even more hawkish in the last few weeks since the Jackson Hole. Headline numbers may be lower due to the decline in gasoline prices, but the price pressure on services side will likely broaden further. Last week, the Fed also raised its forecasts for inflation, with the central bank now seeing core PCE at 4.5% by the end of this year (it previously projected 4.3%), moderating to 3.1% next year and at 2.1% at the end of its forecast horizon in 2025, but thinks that headline PCE prices will be at its 2% target by then. Putin's speech due today after Russia annexed parts of Ukraine Vladimir Putin will address legislators after Russia signs treaties today to absorb four occupied regions, with Ukrainian forces threatening to encircle a pocket of the Donbas region. There is also growing resistance to Putin’s decision to call up 300,000 reservists. Market focus will likely be on Putin’s warnings to the West about any potential threats of using nuclear weapons, which may mean risk aversion getting another leg up. Nike sank on concerns about inventory build-up and margins Nike (NKE) reported slightly better than expected revenues and inline earnings but below expectation gross margins and a 65% surge in inventories for the North American market.  In the earnings call, the company’s CFO pledged to take “decisive action to clear excess inventory” and such efforts will have “a transitory impact on gross margins this fiscal year”.  Investors took note of the implication on demand and profitability and sold stock to more than 9% lower in the extended hour trading. Apple fell on analyst downgrade After being sold on the company’s announcement to back off plans to increase iPhone production this year on the day before, Apple’s shares fell another 4.9% yesterday after an analyst downgrade from a U.S. investment bank.  In this Market Daily Insights piece yesterday, we mentioned the warnings from Peter Garnry, Saxo’s Head of Equity Strategy, about the likelihood that Apple’s revenue could slip into negative growth for the current quarter ending Sep 30 and you can find more details of his analysis from here. In his note, Peter also warns that analysts may be way off in their estimates for the S&P 500 for Q3 and it is highly probable that there will be significant misses to the downside followed by gloomy comments from company management about the outlook on margins.     For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-30-sept-30092022
Poland: Rapidly Rising Core Inflation Confirms That The Impulse From Energy Shock Is Strong

A Peak In Inflation In The Eurozone Is Possible| H&M’s Challenging Position And Micron's Shocking Forecast

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 30.09.2022 09:44
Summary:  After celebrating the injection of liquidity from the Bank of England on Wednesday, global markets swooned again yesterday, taking the major US indices. Elsewhere, sterling has recovered most of the lost ground since the announcement of last week’s tax cuts on the stabilization of the gilt market, with other major sovereign yields also easing lower. The drop in yields and a consolidation in the US dollar have supported gold, which is poking higher toward important resistance.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) US equities traded lower yesterday after hawkish remarks from Mester and Bullard that policy rates will stay higher for longer than what the market is expecting (pricing in). In addition, the market is increasingly at edge with the expectation that Russia will annex four regions of Ukrainian territory because the fear is that it could escalate the war to new levels. Nasdaq 100 futures are most sensitive to the hawkish Fed messages and tumbling growth outlook, so watch this index going into the weekend. Nasdaq 100 futures are trading around the 11,265 level this morning and 11,000 is naturally the big next level on the downside in case selling resumes into the weekend. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hong Kong and mainland China markets were treading water ahead of the week-long National Day golden week holiday. Chinese developers rallied to recoup some of the recent losses following PBoC’s supportive statement coming out of its quarterly monetary meeting saying that the central bank will expand its special lending program to ensure the delivery of delayed housing projects. Country Garden (02007:xhkg) rebounded 10% after plunging 11% yesterday. Chinese EV maker, Zhejian Leapmotor (09863:xhkg), tumbled another 11% after having tumbled 33.5% yesterday on its first day of trading. Other Chinese EV names traded in the Hong Kong bourses plunged from 2% to 9%. Strong USD fades as bond yields punched lower The weak US dollar suggests that the market was more focused on rising US treasury yields during the recent upswing than the accompanying risk sentiment deterioration: yesterday, the USD weakened sharply as yields were flat to lower while risk sentiment was in the dumps. Hard to tell if some end-of-month/quarter rebalancing through today might be in play as well. A proper reversal of the recent USD bull move would require far more weakness, for example: EURUSD back above the 0.9900-0.9950 area and AUDUSD above perhaps 0.6700 (more on GBPUSD below). Next week features a full line-up of key US macro data and should bring a test of the USD’s status. Was that the climax for sterling bear market? Too early to draw conclusions here, as sterling has not yet recovered sufficient ground in the most important EURGBP and GBPUSD pairs to suggest that we have seen a climax reversal, although overnight, GBPUSD did reverse the entire plunge sparked by the announcement of the special budget last Friday by Chancellor Kwarteng, which started around 1.1200. Arguably, a close above 1.1200-1.1250 suggests a chance over reversal, though really 1.1500 was a more significant starting point for the recent slide. For EURGBP, the key support/pivot zone is 0.8750-0.8700. While there was nothing specifically supportive about the Bank of England’s emergency QE, if the logic is that the BoE saved the system from a financial crisis and that the exercise demonstrated that quantitative tightening will prove impossible elsewhere eventually (and therefore the BoE is only the first of many), sterling’s situation looks less bad if other central banks eventually follow suit. Gold (XAUUSD) Gold continues to rebound from key support at $1615 with the focus now being the critical resistance zone into 1,680-1,700 that is the departure point for this latest bear market move. While global bond yields and the USD will continue to lead the way as coincident indicators, the market has held up relatively well with geopolitical concerns (Putin’s N threat) and investors increasingly worried the FOMC with its hawkish actions may break the currency and bond market. Some signs of that were seen this week with some extreme moves in local bond and currency markets. Speculators hold a rare net short in COMEX gold futures and any further strength will trigger short covering, while total holdings in ETFs backed by bullion have declined to a 30-month low. Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOX2) Crude oil is heading for its first albeit small weekly gain in five and the first quarterly drop since 2020. The market remains troubled by forces pulling prices in opposite direction, and while the strong dollar, surging yields, and continued lockdowns in China have raised demand worries, the risk to supply continues to be a supporting theme. That focus returned on Thursday when OPEC+ said a production cut would be discussed at next week's meeting with Russia proposing a 1 mln barrels per day cut, a reduction towards which they are unlikely to contribute much as they are already producing below their quota. In addition, the combination of Russian sanctions and embargo and the US pausing its sales from strategic reserves will continue to dampen the downside risks. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasury yields remained calm yesterday as we can infer that the recent wild ride in UK gilts had triggered contagion into US treasury yields, likely aggravating the recent rise toward 4.00% for the 10-year treasury benchmark before the BoE’s emergency efforts took major sovereign yields back lower. US macro data next week, including the ISM surveys and the September jobs report next Friday, will be key for the direction in US yields, with the major 3.50% level, the June high, the key downside pivot point. What is going on? Apple shares (AAPL:xnas) crater after the company announced it will skip production increase and on analyst downgrade Apple shares ended the day nearly 5% lower, helping to drag the broader market lower as it is world’s largest company by market capitalization. A Bank of America analyst cut the rating on the company to “neutral” from “buy”. Apple’s demand is hurt by the cost-of-living crisis and the earnings outlook last night from the chip manufacturer Micron Technology is indicating that demand is coming down fast. Fed speakers push for more hikes Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester (voter this year) remains more hawkish than the Fed’s median dot plot and said that rates are not in restrictive territory yet and more rate hikes will be needed. No signs of concern on economy or dollar strength were noted, while inflation remained the key point of concern for her. St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, likewise a voter this year, said it was a ‘bad idea to mess’ with the inflation target while labor market conditions remain tight and recession is only a risk. San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly (voter in 2024) was more cautious, saying officials should work to avoid "inducing a deep recession." However, she still raised the bar on expectations on the Fed funds rate saying that she is comfortable with median Fed rate path projection of 4%-4.5% by year end, 4.5%-5% in 2023 (pointing to upside risks as the dot plot suggested 4.6%, or 4.5-4.75% if we talk in ranges). Eurozone inflation is set to hit a new record in September The September eurozone inflation will be released today. Expect a new record which will increase the pressure on the European Central Bank to hike interest rates by at least 75 basis points in October. The economist consensus expects that the headline harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) will reach 9.7 % year-over-year against 9.1 % in August. The core rate is expected to climb to 5.6 % year-over-year against 5.5 % previously. The spread between the headline and the core inflation figures is mostly explained by a decrease in oil and natural gas prices in recent months. However, this is clear that inflation is becoming broad-based, including in the services sector. This means that inflation is here to stay for long. The HICP is likely to continue increasing in the coming months. A peak in inflation in the eurozone is possible in the first quarter of 2023, in our view. This is much later than in the United States.  Earnings recap (H&M, Nike, and Micron) H&M delivered a big miss yesterday on operating profit as input costs surprised to the upside. H&M is starting charging for online returns to save costs and the demand in China is still weak due to H&M’s challenging position in the country. Nike surprised positively on revenue but missed on earnings against estimates as margin compression has begun, and the company’s inventory is building up fast creating a potential headache going forward as consumer demand is expected to decline in the coming quarters. Micron delivered a shocking outlook for the current quarter with revenue expected at €4-4.5bn vs est. €6bn. CEE currencies under strain, likely on geopolitical unease CEE currencies are under significant pressure since the news of the pipeline explosions this week – this was likely triggered by the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines to Germany, which could be a prelude to the cutting off of other pipelines from Russia. EURHUF has pulled above 420 for the first time ever, EURPLN yesterday spiked to the highest level since the timeframe just after the breakout of war in Ukraine.  Hungary continues to not support new sanction efforts against Russian energy imports. In Prague, protests have broken out against the country’s energy policy, while EURCZK remains sedated by heavy Czech central bank intervention. US initial claims come in strong again Initial claims came in lower than expected at 193k with last week’s also revised lower to 209k from 213k. Continued claims cooled to 1.347mln from 1.376mln despite the expected rise to 1.388mln. The data shows how tight the labour market is in the US and Fed's Bullard labelled today's claims metric as "super low". Meanwhile, the third estimate of Q2 GDP was confirmed to decline 0.6%, notably with consumer spending revised higher to 2% from 1.5% previously. Aluminium prices bolt higher; fuelling a rally in major mining companies Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange briefly jumped by a record 8.5% on Thursday before retracing lower. The sudden burst which to a minor extent was replicated in zinc and nickel was driven by a Bloomberg report saying that the LME as an option is looking into whether and under what circumstances they might place a ban on Russian metal being cleared via the exchange. Any such move by the LME to block Russian supplies could have significant ramifications for the global metal markets given their importance as a supplier of the mentioned metals, which to a smaller extend also includes copper. What are we watching next? Change of course from UK government after recent events? UK Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor Kwarteng will meet with the Office of Budget Responsibility today for emergency talks before they receive the first draft of fiscal forecasts from the OBR next week. The recent crisis in the UK gilt market and downward spiral in sterling could elicit a response and possible backtracking on some portion of the recent policy announcement, although Truss said as recently as yesterday that she will stay the course. The most recent YouGov political poll release yesterday shows the Conservatives trailing Labour by a whopping 33 points, the largest gap since the 1990’s. Election in Brazil at the weekendBrazilian voters go to the polls on Sunday, with left-leaning former president Lula leading strongly in the polls over the incumbent right-populist Bolsonaro, but with many fearing the risk of disorder and violence as Bolsonaro has already made claims of election fraud and has hinted at not wanting to leave office. A run-off election between the two candidates will be held on October 30 if neither gets more than half the popular vote this weekend. The Brazilian real is at the weak end of the recent range versus the US dollar. Fed preferred inflation measure, US PCE, on the radar today The data point is for August and comes nearly three weeks after the BLS CPI data for the month. It will likely echo the same message as given by the last strong CPI number which has made the Fed even more hawkish in the last few weeks since the Jackson Hole. Headline numbers may be lower due to the decline in gasoline prices, but the price pressure on services side will likely broaden further. At last week’s FOMC meeting, the Fed also raised its forecasts for inflation, with the central bank now seeing core PCE at 4.5% by the end of this year (it previously projected 4.3%), moderating to 3.1% next year and at 2.1% at the end of its forecast horizon in 2025, but thinks that headline PCE prices will be at its 2% target by then. Earnings calendar this week Today’s earnings release to watch is from Carnival which is expected to deliver strong results but there are significant downside risks to the outlook from fuel costs, staffing costs and the cost-of-living crisis hurting disposable income. Today: Carnival (postponed from last week), Nitori Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0755 – Germany Sep. Unemployment Change/Rate 0800 – Poland Sep. Flash CPI 0800 – Norway Daily FX Purchases 0830 – UK Aug. Mortgage Approvals 0900 – Eurozone Sep. Flash CPI 1230 – US Aug. PCE Deflator/Core Deflator 1300 – US Fed Vice Chair Brainard to speak at Fed conference on Financial Stability. 1345 – US Sep. Chicago PMI 1400 – US Final University of Michigan Sentiment Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-sep-30-2022-30092022
ApeCoin DAO with its own NFT marketplace. Magin Eden x Polygon integration

NFTs Available To Be Sold On Apple App Store, PUBG's (PlayerUnknown's Battlegrounds) Creator Announces Artemis - Blockchain Metaverse Game

Crypto.com Accelerate the... Crypto.com Accelerate the... 30.09.2022 12:44
Apple now allows apps to sell NFTs in its App Store. OpenSea adds support for Optimism. PUBG creator announces a new blockchain metaverse game. Key Takeaways Apple will allow apps to sell NFTs on its App Store. Current app developers can sell NFTs and new apps can also incorporate NFTs within them. Apple will take a 30% cut of each transaction. Leading NFT marketplace OpenSea added support for the layer-2 scaling solution Optimism on 28 September. OpenSea specifically onboarded popular Optimism-backed NFT projects, including Apetimism, Bored Town, MotorHeadz, and OptiChads. PUBG creator Brendan Greene announced a new blockchain metaverse game. The new game is named Artemis, and will be a virtual metaverse with an AI population, where players can trade NFTs. PUBG is one of the most popular games on Steam with a devoted legion of fans. X2Y2 recorded a -13% decrease in sales and a -15% decrease in transactions. Meanwhile, OpenSea‘s sales were positive at +23% and its transaction count also increased +31%. The total market cap for GameFi tokens now stands at US$8.44 billion, down -4% from last week. Crypto.com NFT in the Spotlight Tero Labs partnered with Crypto.com NFT to launch a new NFT collection: “Rough Diamonds”. It features 1,111 limited-edition NFTs representing the most gifted next-generation Brazilian football stars. Bandanaboi’s “PHAZES” is a collection of 100 unique digital artworks living on the Crypto.org Chain. Each artwork is related to an emotion that the artist was experiencing on a given day. Some pieces are fun, whereas others are introspective. The collection will be expanded in 3 seasons. “Lords Of The Lands” is a decentralised metaverse of a futuristic medieval era, and the first metaverse to be available on the Web, iOS, Android, and virtual reality apps. It consists of 2,000 unique “Lord” NFTs that are virtual reality-ready avatars that can be coupled with a “LadyLord” to breed a GenX LOL. NFT Highlights Meta opens NFT sharing on Instagram and Facebook to all US users Someone just paid US$4.5M for a CryptoPunks Ethereum NFT despite bear market Universal Studios announces NFT scavenger hunt for Halloween Italian Serie A soccer team AC Milan to launch NFT initiative Christie’s goes fully on-chain with NFT marketplace launch Fortress Blockchain Technologies joins forces with Google Cloud to launch private data storage for NFTs GameFi Highlights Nifty News: Napoleon Dynamite cast reunites in Web3 animated series, Sega’s blockchain game and more AXA Hong Kong partners with The Sandbox to become first insurer in Hong Kong to enter metaverse YGG partners with the Kapital DAO, leading provider of Web3 gaming asset management tech, to superscale operations Mirandus: open world MMORPG finally in Web3 NFT Transaction Benchmark     The following chart shows select top NFTs and their historical floor prices: Top Collections The following table shows select top creators (by sales volume on each platform) and a sample of their art: PlatformCollectionSales Volume (USD)Sample Crypto.com NFT TMK $273,000 Minted Cronos Cruisers $119,000 Magic Eden Critters Cult $3,405,000 OpenSea CryptoPunks $9,949,000 GameFi Top Gainers & Losers     Top Games Metrics     Daily Gamers by Blockchain Disclaimer The information in this report is provided as general market commentary by Crypto.com and its affiliates, and does not constitute any financial, investment, legal, tax, or any other advice. This report is not intended to offer or recommend any access to products and/or services. While we endeavour to publish and maintain accurate information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information in this report nor do we adopt nor endorse, nor are we responsible for, the accuracy or reliability of any information submitted by other parties. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or located in a jurisdiction, where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law or that would subject Crypto.com and/or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement. The brands and the logos appearing in this report are registered trademarks of their respective owners. Nothing in this report is intended to suggest that NFTs are investment products, nor securities, nor anything similar or “financial” of any description. NFTs are to be reserved for fun only and NOT with any expectation of “value”, “profit”, “yield” or “investment”. You are also aware that NFTs are not a store of value, are not a generally accepted medium of exchange, and are considered very illiquid and volatile. Author Research and Insights Team Get fresh market updates delivered straight to your inbox: Subscribe to newsletters    Be the first to hear about new insights: Follow us on Twitter Tags CRYPTO RESEARCH CRYPTOCURRENCIES GAMEFI NFT Source: NFT & GameFi Weekly (30/09/2022) (crypto.com)
The Cost Of Living Crisis Is Dampening Demand And Threatens Big Companies Like Apple

The Cost Of Living Crisis Is Dampening Demand And Threatens Big Companies Like Apple

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 30.09.2022 14:01
Yesterday's earnings releases from H&M, Nike, and Micron added more evidence to our hypothesis that the market is underestimating the margin squeeze that is unfolding at rapid speed. The cost-of-living crisis suppressing demand and rising wages impacting input costs are a dangerous cocktail for many companies including Apple that is lowering its production of iPhones to align with the lower demand. Meta also announced a hiring freeze and potential restructurings highlighting the deteriorating environment. The Q3 earnings season will most likely be a nasty surprise for many investors and analysts, and will likely trigger downgrades and lower price targets adding the next negative dynamic to the equity market. Warnings signs from H&M, Nike, and Micron If investors were hoping for good earnings news yesterday ahead of the Q3 earnings season that starts in two weeks they were left disappointed, or maybe even terrified. H&M and Nike both delivered operating margins below estimates as input costs are soaring, and H&M is going as far now as introducing charging for online returns suggesting the Swedish fashion retailer is under pressure. Nike delivered a small positive surprise on revenue but missed on gross margin by 1.1%-points filtering all the way through to FY23 Q1 EPS of $0.93 vs $1.16 a year ago. But two things in Nike’s results must have terrified investors. The company’s inventory levels continued to rise sharply suggesting terrible supply chain management and the company said that it would aggressively begin to reduce inventory in the current quarter. The US sports retailer expect gross margin to decline by 3.5-4%-points in their Q2 as a result of reducing inventory at an accelerated pace. The weak results from H&M and Nike was not a big surprise to us as we have highlighted many times on our Saxo Market Call podcast and in equity notes that the energy shock is causing a cost-of-living crisis that is severely impacting consumption. But the outlook from Micron Technology was the big shocker as the memory chip manufacturer is guidance FY23 Q1 revenue of $4-4.5bn vs est. $6bn and adjusted gross margin in their Q1 of 24-28% vs est. 33.6%. We knew about the impact from the cost-of-living crisis and the signals from memory chip manufacturers have increasingly been bad, but this slowdown is dramatic and pointing towards rapidly deteriorating demand for consumer electronics. That is also why we warned about Apple’s earnings in our equity note yesterday, and that it is likely to impact the entire market sentiment and overall Q3 earnings season. Finally, Meta announced yesterday that it is implementing a complete hiring freeze and that restructurings are under way. The technology company is under pressure in its advertising business from the data privacy update in iOS and slowing marketing demand as companies are cutting costs. On top of that, Meta is spending $10-12bn annualized on its Metaverse which is likely insanely expensive in the current energy shock with high electricity prices and venturing into a new platform might also not be the first priority of most companies these days. Analysts are living in an alternative earnings universe Consensus estimates for Q3 EPS in S&P 500 are still pointing toward q/q growth and as we wrote in yesterday’s note this equates to new record profit margin when we factor in consensus estimates for revenue which is set to decline. To us things are not adding up any longer and we expect revenue to continue increasing or being flat while EPS will take a big hit reducing the net profit margin in the S&P 500 by around 1%-point to 11.7%. Rising input costs now coming from wages which is the biggest operational expense item will drastically reduce margins in the upcoming earnings season and guidance will be uncertainty and weak from many companies. This will likely lead to a lot of downgrades and as we said many times recently trigger the next negative dynamic in the equity market leading to further declines. Next week’s earnings The list below highlights the most important earnings releases next week. Our focus will be on earnings from Biogen and Tesco. With the excellent news three days ago from Biogen and its Japanese partner Eisai that it has a treatment that slows Alzheimer’s in a large phase 3 trial, we expect Biogen to more about the potential for this drug if it is approved in the future. The news about this Alzheimer’s treatment is generally a great news for biotechnology investors that have suffered this year, but it also underscores why biotechnology should be part of long-term investors’ portfolios. Tesco is not usually a very interesting company but its FY23 1H result (ending 31 August) good be worth watching as Tesco has a large exposure to the UK consumer and as a grocery retailer can give insights into whether inflationary pressures are beginning to ease or not. Tuesday: Biogen Wednesday: Keurig Dr Pepper, Aeon, Lamb Weston, Tesco, RPM International Thursday: Seven & I, Conagra Brands, Constellation Brands, McCormick & Co Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/earnings-watch-margin-squeeze-hiring-freeze-and-cost-of-living-crisis-30092022
The Financial Meltdown Continues At Full Speed

The Financial Meltdown Continues At Full Speed

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 30.09.2022 14:41
It was a terribly ugly day across the equity and bond markets yesterday. Despite the financial calamity, Porsche had a successful IPO and secured the valuation it was looking for, but the S&P500 plunged another 2% yesterday and wiped out the summer gains entirely. The same is true for Nasdaq. Nothing is left from the summer rally in the US stocks. Job cuts Apple dived more than 6% and closed the session almost 5% lower yesterday, after Bank of America downgraded the stock on worries of weaker consumer demand. Facebook’s Meta joined the others in announcing job cuts. But *unfortunately* for the Federal Reserve (Fed), the US jobless claims came below 200’000 last week. There are not enough people losing their jobs to stop the financial bleeding in the world. One interesting thing about yesterday’s price action was that... the US dollar sharply eased despite the hawkish messages thrown to our faces by the pitiless Fed members. The British pound recovered above the 1.11 mark against the US dollar yesterday. Could the pound rebound sustainably, or is this just a fake alert? Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:32 Porsche IPO went well, but… 4:20 Apple nosedived amid BoFA downgrade 6:47 Why did the US dollar ease? 8:42 Could sterling recover sustainably? Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #BoE #intervention #UK #gilt #GBP #EUR #USD #Fed #Apple #Meta #Porsche #IPO #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH    
The Social Phenomenon Elon Musk Has Kept The Narrative Around Tesla’s Growth Intact

Tesla Is Facing Growing Downside Risks And Very Optimistic Analysts' Expectations

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 04.10.2022 13:54
Summary:  Tesla has been one of the strongest consumer discretionary stocks since May but yesterday's negative price action amid a strong rebound in US equities is sending a signal that investors are getting nervous. One thing is the Q3 deliveries miss against estimates but elevated lithium prices are hurting on input costs and the cost-of-living crisis is beginning to lower demand significantly across many consumer discretionary categories including cars. Tesla is facing growing downside risks against a very rosy outlook priced into the stock with analysts expecting 42% revenue growth in 2023. Tesla shares down 9% in a strong equity session is a strong sign of nervousness Yesterday’s strong US equity session was sending some odd signals as we would typically expect high beta and growth pockets to rally more than the market, but it was instead theme baskets such as defence and commodities that rallied. Adding to this interesting session, Tesla shares were down 8.6% being the only mega cap stock (the 40 largest stocks in S&P 500) that was down more than 1%. A big part of the move in Tesla was of course due to Q3 deliveries missing estimates (343,830 vs 357,938) which Tesla said is due to logistical issues, but the pressure is on Tesla now as the EV-maker has to produce 450,000 cars in the last quarter to meet its 50% annually target that it has set. This seems to be a quite steep target to reach. One thing is the logistical issues in the global car supply chain, but there are two other growing risk sources for Tesla. So far, Tesla has been immune to the cost-of-living crisis caused by the galloping energy crisis which has led Tesla to significantly outperform the global consumer discretionary sector (see chart below). However, with elevated electricity prices and high inflation due to high energy and food prices, the demand is coming down sharply for many consumer companies hitting Apple, Nike, and H&M recently. This is probably the biggest risk to Tesla’s outlook which is still very optimistic with analysts expecting 42% revenue growth in 2023, something we find hard to be achievable given the development in electricity prices and disposable income. In addition there are two hard physical constraints on Tesla’s growth trajectory. The first one is the price of lithium which remains elevated at very high levels putting pressure on battery prices and thus the price on electric vehicles. Given the adoption curve expected on EVs this market could remain very tight for years. Another constraint is the physical electricity grid which needs a massive upgrade to handle all the new EVs and air-to-water heat pumps. Both of these physical constraints are out of Tesla’s control and if they are not solved quickly the 50% annualized growth target may quickly turn out to be lofty vision with no connection to the real world. Are financial conditions too tight already? The US bond yields continued significantly lower yesterday and the 10-year yield is touching 3.57% ahead of the US trading session. This is a sharp reversal from the 4% level reached on 28 September. US equities responded yesterday to the falling yield bouncing back. Positions were stretched across many markets and we are likely witnessing short covering on a big scale. Several leading economists have also been out warning that maybe the Fed is getting to aggressive on its rate policy. If we look at the US financial conditions (see chart below) then financial conditions are back above zero meaning that they are tighter than the average since 1971 relative to the strength of the economy. In theory the current level of financial conditions should begin to have an impact on inflation going forward. The key risk is that inflation has become engrained in the most sticky parts of the services economy and that rising wages could create a wages-inflation feedback loop that will require even tighter financial conditions to get inflation under control. This wage-inflation dynamic is the key topic to watch in 2023.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/is-tesla-driving-into-physical-limits-in-the-economy-04102022
Nvidia's earnings beat expectations. Did you know that crypto mining account for ca. 1% of company's revenue?

Apple's (AAPL) Changes In Its iOS Expected To Affect Meta (FB) Revenues

ING Economics ING Economics 10.10.2022 14:33
Social media companies have suffered heavily in the recent stock rout. Recent revenue trends contribute to this. Some companies will be impacted by declining advertising revenues more than others, caused by changing policies around the use of cookies The Nasdaq index, which is dominated by technology companies, has lost about -27% of its value over a year Equity returns of social media companies have been dreadful lately The technology sector is not immune to the severe economic disruption caused by the war in Ukraine and rising energy prices. The Nasdaq index, which is dominated by technology companies, has lost about 27% of its value over a year. This loss is larger than the Dow Jones index which is traditionally more focused on industrial companies. The Dow Jones index has lost 15% of its value in a year. However, there are many underlying differences within the technology sectors, pointing to a divergent impact. Social media companies rely on advertisers The business model of many internet companies depends on advertising revenues. This holds especially true for some companies that are well-known online, such as Meta (Facebook, WhatsApp), Alphabet, Amazon, but also Snap, Pinterest and Twitter. For example, about 81% of revenues at Alphabet are from advertising, according to Moody’s. The revenues of these companies have exploded as many advertisers have moved their advertising budgets online. This move has been compounded by the relatively high effectiveness of online advertising. Western Europe advertising expenditure (US$bn) Source: Magna Global, S&P Global Market Intelligence The outlook for advertising revenues has deteriorated As shown by the figures above, advertising expenditures allocated to time-based, or linear, audio-visual media is expected to be moved towards digital media. From 2016 to 2025, advertising spending on linear media is expected to decline by 29% according to Magna Global, while advertising spending on digital media is expected to more than double in the same period. Revenue growth at the digital platforms is therefore not only driven by market growth but mostly by shifting advertising preferences. The bigger advertising agencies have so far not announced any weakness in advertising revenues. According to Bloomberg, the consensus expectation for Omnicom’s organic 2022 revenue growth is still around 3%. Publicis raised its expectation for organic 2022 revenue growth on 21 July, to which the equity market reacted strongly positive. The fact that these companies did not report disappointing revenues can be explained by the fact that the budgets the agencies work with have been committed beforehand. By comparison, ads on technology platforms are often sold through an auction. This real-time process makes the pricing of ads much more susceptible to a drop in demand. Something we see happening now. In addition, agencies are making their way into this new domain of online advertising. Publicis made some acquisitions and is working with an ID-based solution to track online advertising performance. Quarterly revenue developments online advertising companies (YoY) Source: Refinitiv Eikon   Recently, however, many social media companies have announced that they expect their advertising revenues to decline. Meta announced a small year-on-year decline in 2Q revenues by -0.9%, while its historical average quarterly growth rate has been 35.8% since 2015. This is the first time the company has reported negative quarterly revenue growth. Alphabet announced an overall revenue increase of 12.6% in 2Q22, but the company mentioned that its advertising segment is facing headwinds, while cloud is doing well. Snap announced a 2Q22 revenue increase of 13%. The company had indicated already in May that growth would be below the initial guidance of 20-25% growth for 2Q22. Nevertheless, the strong secular growth in online advertisement demand could mask the effects of an economic slowdown. Most companies are still reporting revenue growth, despite headwinds. However, when online advertising becomes more mature, it can no longer take market share from linear advertising budgets while it relies more on growing advertising budgets. Therefore, at some point in the future, growth rates of digital advertising revenues should come down while the industry becomes more prone to economic cycles. For now, online advertisers are still grappling with the effects of policies that intend to increase the privacy of citizens. Apple has restricted the online tracking of users In the summer of 2021, Apple started to significantly restrict the ability of advertisers to track the behaviour of users. Apple introduced a new privacy feature for iOS devices that limits app developers to target users as well as to measure ad performance. Companies that relied on such tools, such as Meta and Snap, have been impacted to a larger extent than advertisement companies relying on other means, such as advertisement income from search ads. In its 4Q21 earnings call, Meta announced that it expects the changes in iOS to have an impact on 2022 revenues of about $10bn. We could see more barriers raised to target specific users Apart from changes made at Apple, Google is also planning to phase out mechanisms that track user behaviour through cookies. There is an industry-wide awareness that users are increasingly concerned with the information collected by technology platforms. The introduction of cookie legislation as well as the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) have also contributed to this. Google, for example, plans to introduce a new tool which should replace cookie tracking. It has been delayed now to next year. Nevertheless, there are many ways to segment users to be able to target ads. However, this is costly and easier for some than others. Some advertising agencies are also uncertain about the potential impact of restricting cookies. S4 mentions in its 2021 annual report that: “Google’s announcement that it will be blocking third-party cookies by 2023 (delayed from 2022) presents both a significant opportunity and challenge to the group, given that several of our programmatic activities are built on top of the third-party cookie”. In any case, new technology has to match the appropriate regulations such as GDPR. There are also other issues. People use multiple devices interchangeable, which makes it hard for third-party cookies to track consumer behaviour as well as the effectiveness of advertisements. Users may open an email or website on one device and buy the goods or services that are advertised from another device. This reduces the effectiveness of the current systems. Bigger platforms have more opportunities to invest in new technology Other means to place targeted advertisements are possible. Some companies already own specific user data, which makes it easier to sell advertisements targeted at specific user groups. Companies that sell ads based on user search requests still have a straightforward model. It will also be possible to sell ads based on the context it will be shown in. Furthermore, systems could be created around target groups using data in an anonymised way. Nevertheless, it remains a challenge for companies to target specific user groups while also acknowledging privacy regulations that are likely to become stricter over time, because societies seem more willing to implement tougher regulations. And citizens are becoming increasingly aware of the value of their online profiles and are more able to avoid being tracked. So, companies need the financial muscle to keep investing in regulation-proof alternatives. Scale and a large user base make it easier to do so. Alphabet’s division Google announced that it is going to replace cookie tracking. However, the company has postponed the implementation date and has changed the characteristics of the solution that initially was intended to replace cookie tracking. Financial conditions are tightening causing cost reduction efforts Technology platforms are not only faced with revenue headwinds but also their cost of funding increasing. In August 2020, Alphabet issued 2027 notes in dollars at a yield of 0.8%. Today, these bonds have a yield of 4.2%. At the end of August 2021, Netflix's 4.875% 2030 USD notes traded at a yield of 2.37%, while today it yields slightly over 6%. This is happening at a time when interest rates in the broader market are increasing and it implies higher interest costs in the future for companies. The weakening outlook for advertising revenues also reflects a broader weak economic outlook, the catalyst for the equity sell-off, as reflected by equity indices turning lower. According to the Financial Times, investors have been selling private equity and venture capital funds at the fastest pace on record. Because of these tightening financial conditions, technology firms are turning their focus on cash flow generation, as opposed to investing in new ventures with an uncertain and remote pay-off. Snap has announced a reduction of its workforce by 20% and is reprioritising investments. Meta announced a headcount reduction for the first time as well as a sweeping reorganisation. Google chief executive Sundar Pichai hopes to make the company 20% more productive while slowing hiring and investments. Clearly, companies are working hard to make the best out of this situation. Snapchat's parent company Snap is cutting its workforce by 20% due to revenue growth falling below expectations Summary Advertising platforms expect a slowdown in advertising revenue growth because of the expected economic slowdown. This comes at a time when companies are already having to overcome challenges from stricter privacy settings. Over time, the allocation of advertising budgets from linear media to digital media is expected to continue, providing a tailwind to revenues. Nevertheless, digital advertising companies are expected to only grow their revenues in line with market growth and will be more exposed to economic cycles over time. Investments in solutions that can track user behaviour in a privacy regulation-proof way need to continue. But the targeting of narrow audience segments will likely be challenging with regulations becoming stricter. These headwinds are compounded momentarily by tighter financial conditions. Read this article on THINK TagsTechnology Social media NASDAQ Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Are There Any Chances That Amazon Will Find Itself Under Another Downward Pressure?

Apple’s New Products | Goldman Sachs’ Results | In Amazon Rejected A Unionization

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 19.10.2022 11:35
Tweets provide a lot of information. Goldman Sachs shares information on financial results. Morgan Stanley promotes social justice, and CBNC reports problems at Amazon Labor Union. In this article: Recession and investor decisions Forecasts for the World Economic Outlook Results for 3Q 2022 Social justice Financial sector and technology Amazon Labor Union New products A safe haven for investors Morningstar, Inc. tweets about recession and investor decisions.   As recession worries rattle markets, stock investors may be looking for companies that can withstand an economic slowdown.The stocks of these 3 wide-moat, recession-resistant companies are undervalued today. Learn more: https://t.co/3r3DzswKWS pic.twitter.com/np8uOlZY4x — Morningstar, Inc. (@MorningstarInc) October 19, 2022 Recession is becoming more and more likely. Investors remain anxious. Economies, markets and their participants are looking for the safest havens possible. In the tweet, the author points to companies that can withstand an economic slowdown. Such information can help many market participants. How much can slow down? The IMF tweets about its forecasts for the World Economic Outlook.   The IMF forecasts global growth to slow from 6.0% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023. This is the weakest growth since 2001, except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the pandemic. https://t.co/P0SXP8LkHd #WEO pic.twitter.com/uMMPdQOxGT — IMF (@IMFNews) October 18, 2022 Time is hard on the economies. Everyone feels it on their own skin when shopping. The current economic downturn is the worst since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the pandemic. Knowing the forecasts will allow every average person to prepare, plan their budget and limit the risk. It is also a signal for investors to help them orientate their actions. How Goldman Sachs looked like in Q3 Goldman Sachs in its tweet announces 3Q 2022 net revenues and earnings per share.   $GS announces 3Q 2022 net revenues and earnings per share. View the full results and accompanying presentation, and learn more on our 9:30AM ET conference call: https://t.co/vP2fPRz3hX pic.twitter.com/FNBJ5drZat — Goldman Sachs (@GoldmanSachs) October 18, 2022 With the end of one quarter and the beginning of the next, the financial results of the companies emerge. The last quarter has been difficult for many companies, rising inflation is a problem for everyone. Goldman Schas is another company that presents its result. How it fell in the third quarter may give a picture of her situation. There will also be a conference call to discuss the company's financial results. Promoting social justice Morgan Stanley tweets about his commitment to social justice   As part of our commitment to an integrated and transparent diversity, equity and inclusion strategy, we are supporting @_centritech, a national nonprofit based in Washington, D.C, in launching the first Social Justice Innovation Awards. Read more: https://t.co/TkPl1fH9TW — Morgan Stanley (@MorganStanley) October 18, 2022 In America, social justice is treated in a special way. Striving for them is of utmost importance and a lot of non-profit organizations are being created for this purpose. One of them is supported by the author of the tweet Centri Tech Foundation. A friendly work environment and the company's reputation are supported by its efforts to promote social justice. New technology JP Morgan promotes its activities in the development of technology that they offer to partners.   With billions invested in new technology, we’re working to deliver our partners the tools they need to thrive in a dynamic digital world. — J.P. Morgan (@jpmorgan) October 18, 2022 Currently, technology is the basis for the development of banking and financial business. Offering cutting-edge solutions can attract new customers or partners. As a leading company in its industry, JP Morgan tries to work on its development, for the benefit of its customers and employees. Informing about modern solutions has a positive effect on the company's image. They voted against CNBC Now in its post informs about the opposition of Amazon employees in Albany.   Amazon workers in Albany vote against unionization https://t.co/NBePGDAGOj — CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) October 18, 2022 Amazon is one of the largest e-commerce platforms in the world that operates in the field of online commerce. Amazon employees in the US decided to form a trade union in that country. It was the first time in the history of an e-commerce giant. A trade union is an organization of workers who organize themselves to build a force that can improve living conditions. Workers who organize themselves can jointly negotiate higher wages, better treatment, or favorable collective bargaining. But employees at an Amazon warehouse near Albany overwhelmingly rejected a unionization effort on Tuesday, delivering a blow to an upstart labor union Apple’s new consumer electronics In AppleTrack tweets belonging to Apple we learn about new products.   Apple has RELEASED a new iPad Pro with the M2 chip inside ‼️🤯 pic.twitter.com/FxNzmCLMvb — AppleTrack (@appltrack) October 18, 2022   Here’s the new Apple TV 4K with the A15 chip and HDR10+ 📺🍎 pic.twitter.com/O0Dh05eN7c — AppleTrack (@appltrack) October 18, 2022 NEW $449 iPad released in fresh colors and all-new design ‼️✏️ pic.twitter.com/c3Cp82APmd — AppleTrack (@appltrack) October 18, 2022 A company famous for the production of smartphones, it also produces other consumer electronics. For fans of this company, such information can encourage them to buy and even help the company using word of mouth marketing.
Zoom Video EPS beat market expectations. Next week's Eurozone CPI and the US GDP releases are going to attract investors' attention

Chinese indices - Hang Seng and CSI 300 lost a lot, Q3 earnings season is underway with Coca-Cola, Apple and others publishing their earnings this week!

Peter Garnry Peter Garnry 24.10.2022 23:34
Summary:  Chinese equities are significantly lower today following the country's leadership shuffle over the weekend as investors are increasingly readjusting lower their views on longer term growth in private sector profits. Chinese equities are selling at a historical discount to US equities in a sign of a rising equity risk premium on Chinese equities. This rising equity risk premium comes also with risk for the US equity market as many US companies have large revenue exposure to China. We also take a look at the Q3 earnings season and the upcoming earnings this week which will determine the short-term sentiment and reaction. Will international investors reconsider their exposure to China? There are bad days in the equity market when everything is on sale with liquidity effects driving all stocks over the cliff, and then there are days when an isolated equity market plunges even when most other equity markets are on the rise. The latter happened in today’s trading session when the Hang Seng Index declined by 6% and the CSI 300 (mainland Chinese index) fell 3% as investors decided to sell first and ask questions later upon witnessing the shuffle in Chinese leadership presented over the weekend. The weekend’s events in China are arguably the culmination of a long journey, in which China has been placing ever more emphasis on the importance of the public sector over the private sector, as encapsulated in the Chinese policy of “Common Prosperity”. The price action in Chinese equities speaks volumes when we see the tumbling Hang Seng Price Index trading at levels not seen since the global financial crisis in 2009, even if the total return index is less gloomy and only at a level last seen in 2013. More importantly, the spread in equity valuation between the Hang Seng Composite Index and S&P 500 has dropped to very low levels (60% below S&P 500) with the Hang Seng Composite Index now valued at a mere 6.8 times earnings. The rising Chinese equity risk premium The valuation differential reflects the growing political risk premium and lower confidence in those underlying Chinese earnings as Common Prosperity is likely a drag on private sector earnings growth longer term. At times in recent years, Chinese technology companies often traded at higher equity valuations than their Silicon Valley peers, but since Common Prosperity was adopted, the situation has changed dramatically with lower earnings and revenue growth among Chinese technology companies, leading to massive losses for investors. We maintain an underweight view on Chinese equities as a precautionary measure. As we have noted in previous equity notes countries such as India, Vietnam, and Indonesia are the big winners of the current realignment of global supply chains and thus considering for Asian exposure. A growing equity risk premium on Chinese equities naturally leads to the question of whether the US equity market could suddenly be jolted by a repricing of its China exposure. Is a dollar of free cash flow in China worth the same as a dollar of free cash flow from the US or Europe? Arguably not, and while this has been reflected in the revaluation of many semiconductor companies (also partly due to the US CHIPS Act) it has not been fully reflected in more consumer-oriented stocks like Apple and Tesla. With around 20% of its revenue coming from China, Apple’s risk profile could be rising on the risk of a sudden repricing due of a Chinese equity risk premium. Tesla gets 25% of its revenue in China and thus also has significant China exposure that is currently not reflected in its equity valuation. As we have stated in our previous equity notes, Apple and Tesla shares are key for broader equity sentiment and any downside risk dynamics in these two stocks could quickly jeopardize the wider equity market. Investor flows into Chinese equities and companies with high China exposure While price action tells one story on China, investor flows in ETFs tracking MSCI China A shares are telling a slightly different story. The number of outstanding shares (essentially how much capital that is deployed in an underlying index) has been growing steadily over the years as China’s capital markets have opened up. The has led to more inclusion in EM- and global benchmark indices of equities and bonds. While we have seen significant outflows out of ETFs tracking CNY bonds, until very recently at least, we have observed the opposite in Chinese equities. Falling equity prices in China have prompted rising investor flows into a “China is cheap” narrative. But sometimes, things are cheap for a reason (the equity risk premium discussion above). Over the last couple of months, this trend has shifted: in August, the largest UCITS ETF, which tracks MSCI China A shares, has begun seeing declining outstanding shares. As of Friday the current drawdown was -12%. This could be an early sign that investor appetite is on the decline. MSCI, the leading global equity index provider, has created an index called the MSCI World with China Exposure Index (USD) It covers 51 companies with the greatest revenue exposure to China. This index is a good starting point for any investor who would like to break down portfolio exposure to China. The 10 largest companies in the MSCI World with China Exposure Index (USD) are listed below. Qualcomm BHP Group Texas Instruments Broadcom Rio Tinto Applied Materials Woodside Energy Lam Research Fortescue Metals Group Marvell Technology As noted above, in addition to this list we would argue companies such as Apple and Tesla have considerable revenue exposure to China and thus have downside risks to their equity valuation. Q3 earnings so far show margin compression The numbers so far show that earnings are down q/q across all the major equity indices after a strong Q2. With revenue growth remaining strong due to inflation, profit margins on the other hand are under pressure. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 index in particular is showing severe margin compression with the profit margin down 2.8%-points since Q2 2021 and narrowing its spread to the MSCI World. This reduction in profit margin relative to the MSCI World is another way of expressing how higher interest rates and inflation are driving the comeback of the physical world over profits driven by intangibles. The list below shows a condensed version of the more than 400 earnings releases this week among the companies that are included in our earnings coverage. The most important earnings releases for market sentiment in US equities are Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, UPS, General Electric, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Intel, Caterpillar, Exxon Mobil, and Chevron. In Europe, investors will focus on DSV, SAP, HSBC, Mercedes-Benz, BASF, TotalEnergies, EDF, Shell, Credit Suisse, Sanofi, Airbus, and Volkswagen. Today: Nidec, Philips, Cadence Design Systems Tuesday: First Quantum Minerals, Canadian National Railway, DSV, UPM-Kymmene, SAP, HSBC, ASM International, Norsk Hydro, Novartis, UBS, Kuhne + Nagel, Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Coca-Cola, Texas Instruments, UPS, Raytheon Technologies, General Electric, 3M, General Motors, Valero Energy, Biogen, Enphase Energy, Halliburton, Spotify Technology Wednesday: Dassault Systemes, Mercedes-Benz, BASF, Deutsche Bank, PingAn Insurance, CGN Power, UniCredit, Canon, Barclays, Standard Chartered, Heineken, Aker BP, Iberdrola, Banco Santander, SEB, Meta Platforms, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Bristol-Myers Squibb, ADP, Boeing, ServiceNow, Ford Motor, Twitter Thursday: ANZ, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Argenx, Shopify, Teck Resources, Neste, Kone, TotalEnergies, EDF, STMicroelectronics, PetroChina, China Life Insurance, CNOOC, Oriental Land, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Hoya, FANUC, Shell, Lloyds Banking Group, Universal Music Group, Repsol, Ferrovial, Hexagon, Evolution, Credit Suisse, Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Merck & Co, McDonald’s, Linde, Intel, Honeywell, Caterpillar, Gilead Sciences, Pioneer Natural Resources, Friday: Macquarie Group, OMV, ICBC, China Merchants Bank, LONGi Green Energy Technology, Midea Group, Imperial Oil, Danske Bank, Sanofi, Airbus, Volkswagen, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, BYD, China Shenhua Energy, Eni, Keyence, Hitachi, Denso, Equinor, CaixaBank, Wilmar International, Swiss Re, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, AbbVie, NextEra Energy, Colgate-Palmolive, Royal Caribbean Cruises Source: Chinas risk premium on the rise critical earnings week ahead | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
ApeCoin DAO with its own NFT marketplace. Magin Eden x Polygon integration

Horse Racing At The NFT-DeRace | OpenSea Sales Were Positive, GameFi Saw An Increase

Crypto.com Accelerate the... Crypto.com Accelerate the... 28.10.2022 09:28
Key Takeaways Crypto.com signed an MOU with gaming software development studio ACT Games. The Cronos blockchain will soon be powering ACT Games’s NFT trading card game “Zoids Wild NFT Arena”. Crypto.com will issue an NFT collection based on A Story produced Korean drama “Extraordinary Attorney Woo”. Four whale artworks produced by top Korean illustrator Chul-min Lee were also showcased at Blockchain Week in Busan. Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT holders have access to a new merchandise drop. The BAYC x McBess x The Dudes drop contains apparel, accessories, and artwork. Amongst the items are t-shirts, jackets, prints, and stickers with monochromatic designs. Reddit brought half a million or more newcomers to the world of NFTs, using a jargon-free approach to presenting digital collectibles. Around three million wallets have been created to acquire Reddit’s Collectible Avatars, and sales volumes have exceeded US$6.7 million. X2Y2 recorded a -19% decrease in sales and a -15% decrease in transactions. Meanwhile, OpenSea‘s sales were positive at +21% and its transaction count also increased +9%. The total market cap for GameFi tokens now stands at $7.83 billion, up +9% from last week. Crypto.com NFT in the Spotlight The “Visa Masters of Movement” NFT collection is a fusion of football, art, and technology. To celebrate FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022, Visa has taken some of football’s most iconic moves from five legendary players and transformed them into digital art. Proceeds from the sales of this collection will also benefit the charity Street Child United. DeRace is an NFT horse racing metaverse based on blockchain technology and it allows players to race, equip, breed, and rent NFT horses. Each “DeRace Mystery Box” contains one wearable NFT for your virtual horse, including saddles, horseshoes, and stirrups.These can be used to unlock the performance of the NFT horses or traded on NFT marketplaces. NFT Highlights NFT marketplace LooksRare switches to optional royalties OpenSea revises OpenRarity Protocol to reflect market dynamics Twitter will allow users to buy and sell NFTs through tweets Over $1M worth of ETH and NFTs stolen in phishing attack Apple to allow in-app purchase of NFTs, subject to 30% tax rate Swiss Seba Bank launches NFT custody despite market decline GameFi Highlights Gaming and NFTs will drive Web3 growth: Crypto.com COO Blockchain game Alien Worlds launches in-game DAOs Nissan to launch game NFTs Axie Infinity drops 22% over the week amid fears of token unlock GameFi-focused network Oasys Blockchain launches mainnet with support of Sega, Ubisoft, and Bandai Namco NFT Transaction Benchmark The following chart shows select top NFTs and their historical floor prices: Top Collections The following table shows select top creators (by sales volume on each platform) and a sample of their art: PlatformCollectionSales Volume (USD)Sample Crypto.com NFT Loaded Lions $234,000 Minted Cronos Cruisers $291,000 Magic Eden y00ts: mint t00bs $1,711,000 OpenSea CryptoPunks $6,566,000 Platform Crypto.com NFT Collection Loaded Lions Sales Volume (USD) $234,000 Sample Platform Minted Collection Cronos Cruisers Sales Volume (USD) $291,000 Sample Platform Magic Eden Collection y00ts: mint t00bs Sales Volume (USD) $1,711,000 Sample Platform OpenSea Collection CryptoPunks Sales Volume (USD) $6,566,000 Sample GameFi Top Gainers & Losers Top Games Metrics Daily Gamers by Blockchain Disclaimer The information in this report is provided as general market commentary by Crypto.com and its affiliates, and does not constitute any financial, investment, legal, tax, or any other advice. This report is not intended to offer or recommend any access to products and/or services. While we endeavour to publish and maintain accurate information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information in this report nor do we adopt nor endorse, nor are we responsible for, the accuracy or reliability of any information submitted by other parties. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or located in a jurisdiction, where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law or that would subject Crypto.com and/or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement. The brands and the logos appearing in this report are registered trademarks of their respective owners. Nothing in this report is intended to suggest that NFTs are investment products, nor securities, nor anything similar or “financial” of any description. NFTs are to be reserved for fun only and NOT with any expectation of “value”, “profit”, “yield” or “investment”. You are also aware that NFTs are not a store of value, are not a generally accepted medium of exchange, and are considered very illiquid and volatile.  
Recent Decisions On Interest Rates (ECB,BoJ) | Big Oil Earnings

Recent Decisions On Interest Rates (ECB,BoJ) | Big Oil Earnings

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 28.10.2022 12:32
An ugly week of Big Tech earnings is coming to an end, having wipe out hopes of seeing earnings boost gains across the stock markets. Yesterday, Meta plunged more than 24%; Nasdaq 100 lost almost 2%. And today won’t be any better, as Apple and Amazon also lost in the afterhours trading. Amazon lost up to 20%! US Big Tech US Big Tech rather killed joy this week, so all eyes are on Big Oil to reverse mood. Exxon Mobil and Chevron will be reporting earnings this Friday and are expected to announce stunning earnings. US GDP data On the data front, investors didn’t know what to do with the mixed US GDP data yesterday. The latest GDP update showed that the US economy grew 2.6% in the Q3, exports boosted the headline figure, while imports fell - meaning that the domestic demand from the US weakened despite a significant appreciation of the US dollar. The central banks On the central banks front, the European Central Bank (ECB) hiked the interest rates by 75bp at yesterday’s meeting, as the stubborn Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its interest rate unchanged at -0.10% at today’s meeting, while revising the 2022 inflation forecast significantly higher from 2.3% to 2.9%. What ahead Today, investors will be watching one last thing on the macro front before the weekly closing bell – and that’s the September PCE index, along with the personal income and spending data. Any weakness could further weigh on the dollar before we close the week, and before next week’s FOMC meeting. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:41 Big Tech selloff continues as Amazon & Apple fail to convince 2:23 Watch Big Oil earnings: Exxon & Chevron are due to report today. 4:17 US GDP data was mixed! 6:16 ECB hiked 75bp, but euro slipped 7:46 BoJ stood pat, while revising inflation forecast! 8:35 Watch US PCE index, personal income & spending Ipek Ozkardeskaya  Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Apple #Amazon #Meta #Google #Microsoft #ExxonMobil #Chevron #earnings #USD #GDP #ECB #BoJ #rate #decision #EUR #JPY #crudeoil #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
Apple Shares Rose | As Trump Still Enjoys Personal Popularity

Amazon Is Still Under Pressure | Apple Has A Price Power

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 28.10.2022 13:04
Summary:  Amazon issued its weakest Q4 revenue growth outlook in the company's history and missed significantly on its operating income forecast relative to estimates suggesting Amazon is still under pressure on input costs and weakening demand with a negative surprise on its AWS revenue in Q3. Apple on the other turned out to be the bright spot this week among many disappointing earnings releases from technology companies. Next week, the earnings season will be less busy but there are still plenty of important earnings that can move equities. Amazon plunges 14% on gloomy outlook Just like Meta has seen an epic decline in free cash flow generation, Amazon is losing money on an unprecedented scale with 12-month trailing free cash flow declining to $-28.5bn from $-8.8bn from a year ago. Amazon overspent during the pandemic expanding its capacity to a level that is now far above its current demand from customers. Amazon’s Q3 revenue was $127.1bn vs est. $127.6bn up 15% y/y driven by third-party seller services, AWS, and advertising. The two biggest surprises in Q3 were the operating income at $2.5bn vs est. $3.1bn and AWS revenue of $20.5bn vs est. $21bn. However, the biggest shock for investors was the Q4 revenue outlook at $140-148bn vs est. $155.5bn indicating a growth rate of just 5% y/y and thus the weakest Q4 growth in the company’s history. The Q4 outlook for operating income was $0-4bn vs est. $4.7bn indicating severe issues with short-term profitability. While sentiment is short-term negative for Amazon things could improve in 2023 as costs are reined in and logistics costs are coming down due to lower container freight rates. Amazon shares are trading around $97 in pre-market trading taking the stock back to levels not seen since the pandemic lows in early 2020. Apple’s performance the past year with a cost-of-living crisis, supply chain constraints, and soaring input costs has been phenomenal and last night’s result confirms that Apple is a fortress that can withstand the volatile environment. Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett did the right assessment on Apple’s moat characteristics choosing Apple for its technology exposure over other technology companies. Apple has pricing power on both its hardware and software (recently they have announced that they will raise prices on their subscriptions). In it FY22 Q4 earnings report the company reported revenue of $90.1bn up 8% y/y with solid revenue growth across all segments except for the iPad that saw double digit decline. All geographies showed growth except for Japan. Growth is miniscule now in its Greater China segment while Europe was surprisingly strong. While the numbers look good there is a considerable margin squeeze on Apple with the EBITDA margin hitting 30.8% down from 32.1% a year ago which also one of the reasons why the company is raising its subscription prices. Shares are up 1% in pre-market trading. Key earnings next week The Q3 earnings season is leaving a busy week with key US technology earnings that have seen disappointments from Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon. Next week is less busy, but there are still plenty of important names. Toyota and Sony are key Japanese earnings to watch on Tuesday, and on the same day in the US, we will watch AMD and Airbnb earnings. On Wednesday, European equities will watch earnings from Novo Nordisk, Maersk, and Vestas. Novo Nordisk will be judged on its obesity drug adoption rate, Maersk will have to manage a weakening outlook for container shipping, and Vestas is struggling with profitability and its order intake. On Wednesday, the US earnings focus will be on Booking as an indicator of travel demand and Fortinet in the cyber security industry. Thursday is the big day with key earnings from Orsted, BNP Paribas, BMW, ConocoPhillips, PayPal, Starbucks, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, and MercadoLibre. Friday ends with key European banking earnings from Societe Generale and Intesa Sanpaolo. Monday: COSCO, Daiichi Sankyo, Stryker, NXP Semiconductors, Global Payments Tuesday: Toyota Motor, Sony, BP, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, AMD, Mondelez, Airbnb, Uber, Wednesday: Suncor Energy, Nutrien, Novo Nordisk, Maersk, Vestas Wind Systems, GSK, Electronic Arts, Qualcomm, CVS Health, Estee Lauder, Booking, Fortinet, Ferrari, Albemarle Thursday: Verbund, Barrick Gold, Orsted, Novozymes, BNP Paribas, BMW, Enel, ING Groep, DBS Group, ConocoPhillips, Amgen, PayPal, Starbucks, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, EOG Resources, Moderna, MercadoLibre, Block, Cloudflare, Coinbase Friday: Enbridge, Societe Generale, Intesa Sanpaolo, SoftBank, Amadeus IT Group, Duke Energy Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/earnings-watch-apple-is-a-fortress-and-amazon-predicts-weak-q4-28102022
Bond yields go up on the back of Waller's (Federal Reserve) comment

What a week it was! Macro data, ECB interest rate decision and earnings of Apple, Amazon and Google

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 30.10.2022 22:52
U.S. earnings season is underway, and through it, we could learn how the current economic situation is affecting various sectors. Unlike last week, in which it was possible to get an impression of a better-than-expected situation in the banking sector, we now seem to be experiencing a negative surprise among many technology giants. Macroeconomic data At the start of the week, we learned the PMI industrial health index for Germany and the UK, with results of 45.7 points (47 points were expected), and 45.8 points (48 points were expected), respectively. We could see similar readings in July 2022. In addition, these values may indicate a deepening recession in the sector (a reading below 50 points is taken as a decline in activity). On Wednesday, we learned data from the US real estate market. September home sales came in at 604,000 (585,000 was expected), down 74,000 from the previous reading. It seems that the decline may have been caused by rising interest rates and an increase in mortgage rates, which fewer and fewer Americans can afford. On Thursday, we could learn about the Eurozone interest rate decision, which was raised in line with analysts' expectations by 0.75 percentage points, and now the main refinancing rate is at 2% and the deposit rate at 1.5%. The U.S. labor market appears to remain strong, with the number of new claims for unemployment benefits at 217,000 (220,000 was expected). These are the lowest figures since March 2020. Equity market It seems that a positive week cannot be credited to the FAANG tech giants (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google). Only Netflix surprised with a positive result last week. On the other hand, the CEO of Meta Platforms (Facebook) hinted after the company's conference that he was wary of costs in his metaverse project. This information may have influenced the close of Thursday's session and a share price drop of more than 24 percent. Source: Mt5, Facebook, Weekly Also, surprising was a tweet shared by Elon Musk, in which he showed that he had come with the kitchen sink to Twitter headquarters. We learned that the deal to buy the company was coming to an end at the original price of $54.2 per share. For this reason, the board of directors of the New York Stock Exchange decided to suspend trading of the stock during Friday's session. Meanwhile, the U.S. real estate industry may have surprised positively, as results came in better than expected despite seemingly declining demand and an environment of rising interest rates. Falling commodity prices and widespread inflation may have allowed business costs to be passed on to customers. As a result, almost half of the real estate companies (AlexRe, Equity, Essex, among others) reported net income from operations more than 50 percent higher than expectations. Currency market After Thursday's Eurozone interest rate decision, the EUR/USD exchange rate hovered around parity at 1.000 for a while, eventually falling to a range of 0.995-1.000. It seems that the European currency is starting to strengthen, this time in anticipation of the upcoming FOMC meeting on November 2. Interest rates remained unchanged following Friday's central Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting. As Reuters reports: “The Bank of Japan kept ultra-low interest rates on Friday and maintained its dovish guidance, cementing its status as an outlier among global central banks tightening monetary policy, as recession fears dampen prospects for a solid recovery. The central bank also announced plans to increase the frequency of its bond buying next month, doubling down on efforts to defend its ultra-loose monetary policy.”. As a result, the price of the USD/JPY pair has risen above JPY 147 since the decision. Source: MT5, USDJPY, Daily Earnings Results season continues next week On Monday, we will learn CPI inflation readings for the Eurozone. On Wednesday, the FOMC's decision on interest rate changes appears to be key. Analysts' consensus is for a 0.75 percentage point hike, in addition, US crude oil inventories may prove important. On Friday, on the other hand, we will learn data on the change in employment in non-farm sectors (NFP), which the FED seems to pay particular attention to. The continuation of the earnings season on Wall Street will show us on Monday the results of the fund of famed investor Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway (BerkshireHa). On Tuesday, we'll learn the Q3 results of healthcare giant Pfizer (Pfizer) and one of the semiconductor and processor industry leaders AMD (AMD). On Thursday, Paypal (PayPal), Starbucks (Starbucks) and Airbnb (AirBNB) will report. The results of the last company may seem particularly interesting, bringing us closer to the situation in the travel industry. Author: Grzegorz Dróżdż, a Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Read more reviews and open a demo account at invest.conotoxia.com Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75,21% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Read the article on Conotoxia.com
Apple May Surprise Investors. Analysts Advise Caution

China's Covid Situation Negatively Affects The Iphone Market| Record Results Of India's SBI

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 07.11.2022 11:57
Although the problem with the coronavirus pandemic has become a significant concern in global markets, it is still a problem for the Chinese economy. Inflation, although it is the main problem of economies around the world, has not had a significant impact on some companies. One such company turns out to be the Indian SBI lender. In this article: China And Covid Apple warns Twitter is the topic India's SBI What Chinese Goverments Will Do? Jim Cramer asked the question about Chinese covid situation. We have no idea what China is going to do with Covid so why do so many keep pretending they do? — Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) November 7, 2022 The situation in China is still serious. The media is flooding with information on how the government is fighting the virus. Recently, there has been information about covid camps where thousands of people stayed. Everyone wonders what action the Chinese government will take, many are sure, but are they sure? And paying attention to this situation may turn out to be instinctive for a global situation. Covid restrictions in China and their impact on Apple CNBC Now also touches upon the covid situation in China, but highlights its impact. BREAKING: Apple warns Covid restrictions in China are hurting iPhone production, and the company now expects “lower iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max shipments than we previously anticipated” https://t.co/4q6RqhwHQd pic.twitter.com/fEsIurFTEN — CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) November 6, 2022 China as the second largest economy in the world is watched by market participants. The current situation in China not only affects the financial markets but also the manufacturing markets of companies such as Apple. As can be seen from the available information, Apple may have a problem satisfying the needs. Production of the iPhone 14 has been temporarily reduced due to Covid-19 restrictions at the main iPhone factory. So far, there have been warnings, but the possible deterioration of the situation in China may make the smartphone manufacturer's circuits real. Twitter and idea of monthly fees *Walter Bloomberg tweets about conclusion about twitter in The New York Times TWITTER SAID TO DELAY CHANGES TO CHECK MARK BADGES UNTIL AFTER MIDTERM ELECTION - NYT — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) November 6, 2022 After Elon Musk took control over Twitter and dismissed key directors, it seems that the discussions around the platform are endless. There is information that Musk wants monthly fees of $8 for using the site. This resulted in a lot of comments, including even Stephen King. Of course, there are two sides of the idea's supporters and opponents. But the information posted in The New York Times and then quoted in the post *Walter Bloomberg suggests that this idea was postponed for later discussions. Could this turn out to be a tactical action or a reaction to the current situation? The answers to these questions can only be known when discussions are resumed. Positive results of India's SBI Reuters Business tweets about the very positive results of India's SBI. Indian lender SBI's stock hits record high on "best-in-class" results https://t.co/HIWDsC2WYj pic.twitter.com/R01paWCJMG — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) November 7, 2022 Inflation causes that nowadays credit products are not readily used. Banks around the world are trying to cope with this difficult situation where the main source is crisis. The largest banks may be in a better position. One bank in India said they are doing pretty well. SBI announced a "best-in-class" quarter with higher-than-industry credit growth. Positive information from banks may also affect its image and share price, in other words, improve its situation on the market.
Apple May Surprise Investors. Analysts Advise Caution

US stocks supported by the upcoming midterm elections, EU gas price cap agreement is under threat, APPL stock price

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 08.11.2022 13:10
Summary: A divided Congress may be viewed as "broadly neutral to moderately positive" for equities. The EU announced a pact to lower energy prices, which is now starting to fall apart two weeks later. China's zero-COVID policy may harm Apple in the short run. Some analysts described the markets as “risk-on” On Tuesday, European equities struggled to advance, and the dollar strengthened as traders gave up on expectations that China will relax its zero-COVID policy and exercise prudence in advance of the U.S. midterm elections. Some analysts have ascribed the markets' "risk-on" tone at the beginning of the week to China's potential relaxation of its stringent COVID-19 lockdown regulations. Some investors' expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may adopt a more dovish tone that has also helped the markets. Investor attention was centered on the upcoming midterm elections in the United States, where the fate of the House of Representatives is on the line. Nonpartisan analysts predict the Republicans will gain a majority in the house, giving them the power to veto President Joe Biden's legislative program. Finding out the outcome of a vote could take days. Analysts typically consider a divided government to be a more market-friendly scenario. Options market analysts predicted that a Democratic upset victory may result in a downturn in the market. According to Tom Caddick of Nedgroup Investments, a divided Congress may be viewed as "broadly neutral to moderately positive" for equities because it would show that major legislative changes are unlikely to occur in the future. *U.S. STOCK FUTURES TICK HIGHER WITH ALL EYES ON MIDTERM ELECTIONS - https://t.co/36oDXQP2wg 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/b0mBV9j6bs — Investing.com (@Investingcom) November 8, 2022 EU gas price cap agreement under threat Today's meeting of the EU financial ministers comes after Paolo Gentiloni, the commissioner for economics, confirmed for the first time that the union will experience a recession this winter and called for steps to make it as brief as possible. On Friday, the European Commission releases its forecasts. After a late-night session, the EU announced a pact to lower energy prices, which is now starting to fall apart two weeks later. Countries that want a cap on gas import prices are holding out against other proposals, such cooperative procurement of supply, until the European Commission provides more information regarding the cap. They are concerned that the commission's free market bureaucrats will reject the notion and fail to produce a workable price cap solution. Germany, on the other hand, is likely to veto any proposals made by Brussels because it thinks that traders would move their gas business abroad if the EU set a maximum price. The creation of a price cap, according to member states opposed to it, should be subject to eight severe requirements listed in the initial commission plan, including that it not jeopardize supply security, not increase consumption, and not have an impact on intra-EU gas flows. EU gas price cap ‘agreement’ starts unravelling https://t.co/SHwzoNLOym — Financial Times (@FT) November 8, 2022 Apple stock price under pressure from COVID-19 lockdowns in China At what is perhaps the worst possible time, COVID lockdowns at Apple's (AAPL) primary iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max factory in Zhengzhou, China, are affecting the corporation. Holiday shopping for new iPhones, Apple Watches, and iPads for friends, family, and self makes this the busiest time of year for Apple. Apple may not have enough iPhones on hand to meet demand this year as a result of the lockdowns at the Zhengzhou facility, which could have a big negative effect on the business's bottom line. Although China's zero-COVID policy may harm Apple in the short run, analysts do not believe that it poses a long-term danger to the company. Customers still desire iPhones, after all, regardless of when they can get them. However, as the firm expands its product lines and may even enter the AR/VR market with its own headset in the long run, Apple's production issues will probably be nothing more than a passing blip. Apple stock: China's Covid lockdowns an 'absolute gut punch': Analyst https://t.co/wT1h3tvPvW by @DanielHowley pic.twitter.com/pOE1FAWqaM — Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) November 8, 2022 Sources: ft.com, finance.yahoo.com, investing.com, twitter.com
Apple Shares Rose | As Trump Still Enjoys Personal Popularity

Apple Shares Rose | As Trump Still Enjoys Personal Popularity

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 16.11.2022 09:08
Summary:  Equity markets were in for a wild ride yesterday as the melt-up continued in early trading, only to violently reverse on an apparently errant missile killing two in a Polish town bordering Ukraine. The price action has since stabilized, with risk sentiment still strong in Asia on hopes for incoming stimulus from China. Important incoming US data up today includes the October Retail Sales data.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) Big rejection in S&P 500 futures yesterday with the index futures coming off 1.3% from the intraday highs to close below the 4,000 level. Yesterday’s upside driver was a lower than estimated US PPI print and then later the downside move was triggered by news that a rumoured Russian missile had hit Polish territory killing two persons. This morning S&P 500 futures are attempting to push above the 4,000 level again, but we want to emphasize cautiousness here as geopolitical risks remain high and markets that seem fragile and trading on thin liquidity across many markets. Today’s key earnings event in the US is Nvidia reporting after the market close. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hong Kong and China stocks consolidated and took a pause on the strong rally since last Friday, with Hang Seng Index losing 1% and CSI 300 Index sliding 0.7%. Chinese property names retraced. Leading private enterprise developer Country Garden (02007:xhkg) plunged 14% following the placement of new shares. Chinese EV makers underperformed, with leading names dropping by 2% to 6%. New Covid cases in mainland China went above 20,000 for the first time since April. FX: USD volatile on risk sentiment swings yesterday The US dollar was pummelled yesterday as the risk sentiment melt-up initially continued yesterday in early trading in the US before a missile hitting a Polish town (more below) sharply reversed sentiment. The situation has since stabilized, but the reversal of the spike put a considerable dent in tactical USD downside momentum. GBPUSD traded the most wildly ahead of today’s CPI and tomorrow’s Autumn Budget Statement, squeezing from 1.1750 early yesterday to all the way north of 1.2000 briefly before trading back to 1.1800 and closing the day south of 1.1900. The USD volatility was less pronounced elsewhere, particularly against Asian currencies. The incoming US data and risk sentiment swings around that data (or as we saw yesterday from other sources) will likely drive the next USD move. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) Crude oil ended lower on Tuesday following a volatile trading session that briefly saw prices spike on news a Polish border town had been hit by a Russian-made but probably Ukrainian fired missile (see below). Overall, the crude oil market remains rangebound with demand worries currently weighing a touch harder than supply concerns driven by OPEC+ production cuts and from next month, EU sanctions against Russian oil, a development that according to the IEA may drive a 15% reduction in Russian output early next year. In China the number of virus cases have surged to near 20,000 thereby testing local authorities' appetite for maintaining the covid-zero restrictions. Focus on EIA’s weekly stock report after the API reported a 5.8m barrel drop in crude and smaller increases in fuel stocks. Gold (XAUUSD) Gold touched resistance at $1788 on Tuesday as the dollar hit a fresh cycle low after US PPI showed the smallest increase since mid-2021. Later in the day, a brief safe haven bid quickly fizzled out after Biden said the rocket that hit Poland was unlikely to have been fired from Russia. Demand from ETF investors – net sellers for months – remain elusive with total holdings falling to a fresh 31-month low and with that in mind expect continued consolidation and potentially a recheck of support at $1735. Resistance at $1788, the 38.2% retracement of the 2022 correction and $1804, the 200-day moving average. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasuries punched to new local lows yesterday, with the 10-year treasury benchmark dipping below 3.80% after a likely errant missile hit a Polish town bordering Ukraine and on slightly softer than expected PPI data. But yields have rebounded today and are back to slightly below the close from last Thursday after that day’s surprisingly soft October US CPI release. Key levels are 3.50% to the downside, the pivot high around the June FOMC meeting when the Fed hiked 75 basis points for the first time for this cycle, while 4.00-4.10% is perhaps the upside swing area. What is going on? UK October CPI was out at 11.1% YoY, a new cycle high This was vs. 10.7% expected and 10.1% in September. Core CPI matched the cycle high from September at 6.5% YoY, versus 6.4% expected. Sterling trades a bit weaker after the initial reaction to the data point, as higher inflation will likely require more fiscal and monetary tightening that will make the coming UK recession deeper, a sterling negative. Missile comes down in Poland town bordering Ukraine, killing two The source of the missiles is a mystery, with US President Biden saying after an emergency meeting with other leaders that the missile was “unlikely” to have been launched in Russia, while Poland claimed that the missile was “Russian made” and convened an emergency security meeting yesterday afternoon. Markets reacted strongly to the development initially, as Poland is a member of NATO. Russian officials said that claims of an intentional missile firing are a “deliberate provocation with the goal of escalating the situation.” Donald Trump declares third bid for the White House in 2024 Trump was widely seen as the chief liability in a very poor Republican showing in the mid-term elections last week, with candidates strongly denying the results of the 2020 election losing badly in almost every case. The Democrats are set to gain a slightly larger majority in the Senate and the Republicans will only eke out the narrowest of majorities in the House of Representatives. As Trump still enjoys an unmatched “base” of personal popularity, it will be difficult for any Republican profile to rise up to challenge Trump, just as it is likely impossible that Trump can win independent voters and those that are not his base. It’s ideal ground for the formation of a new party. Apple set to shift to US-based chip production Apple shares rose over 2.1%, moving to their highest level since early November after the Apple CEO unveiled the company will be using US-made Chips from Arizona in 2024, as part of reducing its reliance on Asian chip manufacturers and shifting to producing its own. CEO Tim Cook also told staff Apple plans to expand its chip supply into European markets. The moves underscore the necessity for technology companies to reshoring semiconductors from Asia to reduce supply chain risks. These types of moves will add to inflationary pressures in the future. US earnings recap: Walmart, Home Depot, and Sea Ltd Yesterday’s earnings releases from these three consumer retailing companies were all better than expected with Walmart lifting guidance and beating on revenue growth. Home Depot had the most downbeat reaction from investors as the home improvement retailer’s revenue growth beat was only due to inflation and not higher volume. The biggest positive reaction was in Sea Ltd shares as the Southeast Asia gaming and e-commerce company posted a narrower operating loss and beat on revenue growth; however, the company took down guidance in its gaming division. Read more details in our earnings review note from yesterday. US producer prices cool more than expected, clocking smallest gain in a year Investors got another piece of evidence inflationary pressures are easing, with US producer price growth rising 8% Y/Y in October (below the 8.3% Bloomberg consensus expected and down from the 8.5% Y/Y in September). Excluding volatile food, energy, core PPI rose 6.7% Y/Y in October- when the market prices to rise 7.2%. After peaking in March at 11.7%, producer price growth has moderated from improving supply chains, softer demand, and weakening commodities prices. The Fed has therefore garnered more catalysts to slow its pace of hikes, which also provides further support to the equity market and bond markets. However, the next important data sets the Fed will be watching are due early next month; US jobs, and November CPI, which are ahead of the Fed’s next meeting (in the third week of December). Arabica coffee (KCc1) dropped 4.4% on Tuesday … thereby extending a rout that has seen the price retrace almost 61.8% of the 2019 to 2022 surge to a multi-year high above $2.50 per pound. Fast forward nine months and the global economic slowdown has led to a reduction in away-from-home consumption at a time where the production outlook from South America has improved. Stocks at ICE monitored warehouses have risen for the past seven days from a 20-year low and could more than double soon with more than half a million bags awaiting assessment. A new LNG exporter is born Mozambique is now officially a new LNG exporter after the first shipment on Monday left the Coral South floating liquefaction unit, which has a 4.4 bcm annual export capacity. This is positive news for Europe who is desperately looking for new energy suppliers since the Ukraine war has started. It was a long-decade process for Mozambique to get its first LNG supply out of the country. Based on official estimates, this is one of the largest LNG offshore fields in Africa. What are we watching next? Fed hawk Christopher Waller to speak on Economic Outlook tonight Waller is an FOMC voter as he sits on the Board of Governors and is widely considered one of the most hawkish Fed members and may unleash a blast of hawkish rhetoric, although it seems the market is more likely to listen only to Fed Chair Powell himself and more importantly, at incoming data. US October Retail Sales data today An interesting data release is up today, the US Retail Sales for October. This data series suggests rather sluggish US growth and is reported in nominal month-on-month terms, not real- or inflation-adjusted terms. The last three months of the headline data have averaged almost exactly 0.0%, while the “ex Food and Energy” series has averaged +0.36%. Today’s headline number is expected at +1.0% MoM and +0.2% for core sales. Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings focus is Nvidia which is expected to deliver a 18% decline in revenue y/y to $5.8bn and EPS of $0.70 down 31% y/y as the market for GPUs is cooling down as crypto mining is becoming less profitable from lower prices on cryptocurrencies. Tencent is expected to report earnings today following a new round of layoffs announced yesterday as revenue growth is expected to be down 1% y/y in Q3. Today: Siemens Energy, Tencent, Experian, SSE, Nibe Industrier, Nvidia, Cisco, Lowe’s, TJX, Target Thursday: Siemens, Alibaba, Applied Materials, Palo Alto Networks, NetEase Friday: JD.com Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – ECB Financial Stability Review 1300 – Poland Oct. CPI 1315 – Canada Oct. Housing Starts 1330 – US Oct. Retail Sales 1330 – Canada Oct. CPI 1330 – US Oct. Import & Export Prices 1415 – US Oct. Industrial Production 1450 – US Fed’s Williams (Voter) to speak 1500 – US Nov. NAHB Housing Market Index 1500 – US Fed’s Barr (Voter) to testify before House Panel 1530 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report 1935 – US Fed’s Waller (Voter) to speak 0030 – Australia Oct. Employment Change / Unemployment Rate Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source:https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-nov-16-2022-16112022
ECB's Lane talks the future of monetary policy. S&P 500 expected to close at ca. $4000 in 2023

After This Holiday Rally, You Better Know When To Walk Away

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 23.11.2022 16:46
This week's investor insight will make you think twice about the current stock and bond rally as we head into the end of the year. We get a lot of questions about if the stock market has bottomed or if it is headed lower and how they can take advantage of the next Major market move. Over the next 6 to 12 months, I expect the market to have violent price swings that will either make or break your financial future. So let me show a handful of charts and show what I expect to unfold. Let's dive in. We're told that "quitters never win." But is it always wise to stick with something when it no longer serves us — or worse, continues to harm us? Many years ago, when Texas hold'em poker was big and online gambling was allowed in Canada, I used to run a poker league and build custom poker tables for people across the United States and Canada. I love poker, and I still play it to this very day, but the game does require skill, a proper mindset, and self-discipline. Without all three of these things, poker is pure gambling. It's the same when it comes to active trading or investing if you lack the skills, mindset, and self-discipline. Retired professional poker player Annie Duke, who is also a best-selling author, and decision strategist who advises seed-stage Startups, says that learning when to quit is a critical skill, especially for investors. Annie states, "Quitting is a good thing when applied at the right time." If you've been following me for any time, then you know I follow a detailed trading strategy with position and risk management rules. As a result, you won't find me taking random trades or trading based on emotions. Instead, you'll find me patiently waiting on the sidelines for a high-probability trade signal to reinvest my capital. I trade differently. I don't diversify. I don't buy-and-hope, and I don't have any positions at certain times. What I do is reinvest in assets that are rising in value. And when a particular asset stops moving higher, I give up on the position and exit it immediately. Because I use technical analysis to follow price action, we can quickly and easily determine if an asset is rising or falling. Therefore, I can step aside and let the asset fall and look for a new opportunity that is rising, or hold the falling position and ride it lower for who knows how long… Unfortunately, most traders and investors do not understand how to read the markets, or they don't have control of their money. They are at the mercy of what the market does or the skills of whoever controls their capital. Let me share some of my market insight and help guide you On October 21st, I stated that retirement accounts should bottom and rally into the end of the year. Bonds were hitting 11-year lows. In short, anyone holding 20+ year treasury bonds had just lost more than ten years of investment growth wiped out.  Bonds, the highly touted safe, low-risk asset, fell over 47% from the 2020 high. It caused similar losses to the average investor portfolio comparable to the 2008 financial crisis. It was the worst selloff ever for treasury bonds that I can see on my charting platform. The real kicker is that the selloff in both stocks and bonds could have been avoided with just a little education and management. Subscribers and I happened to ride the COVID bond rally higher by 19%, exited the position, and moved to cash the day bond prices topped. It was partly luck to exit at the peak, but we would have exited the following trading session if we didn’t lock in profits because we managed our positions and risk. As the price reversed direction, we jumped shipped to one of my favorite positions, which almost no one thinks about or uses – CASH. 2022 has been a painful year for investors, and people are telling me they are scared to look at their investment statements. It now looks like bonds and stocks have started a seasonal rally that could help lift your portfolio as we head into the end of the year, but once it ends, look out! Bonds and Stock Seasonality Price Movement Daily Chart of 60/40 Portfolio You should have seen your account rally 6% or more since Oct 21st, and I think it will continue higher once the market digests the recent move up. While this may excite you, be aware that after this rally, we could see another 20-47% decline in stocks and bonds in 2023. This year-end bounce is nothing more than an opportunity to get out of the antiquated Buy-and-Hope strategy that does not work during a volatile and weakening economic environment. The next few charts, which are big heavyweight stocks that drive the market higher and pull it lower, should help you see what I see.  AAPL Weekly Chart and Potential Breakdown Apple is a heavyweight stock. When it moves, it moves the stock market. Currently, AAPL shares are in what I call a STAGE 3 Distribution phase, and if support is broken, then look out below! TSLA Weekly Chart and Potential Breakdown Tesla shares are another heavyweight, and its weekly chart paints a bleak future for holders. META (Facebook) Weekly Chart Breakdown Leads The Way Down Facebook, or what is now called META, is a heavyweight stock that has already broken down from its STAGE 3 Distribution phase. As you can see, when these mega stocks break down and unwind, individual investors who have their money managed by so-called professionals who don’t know how to manage risk suffer the most. The drop in META shares has held the tech, social, and even the S&P 500, and Nasdaq from rallying freely to the upside in the past month. When/if AAPL, TSLA, and other heavyweights break down, expect panic on Wall Street. My general rule of thumb is if someone tells you to diversify into a bunch of different assets, stocks, commodities, bonds, crypto, etc… then they don’t know what they are doing. They are a buy-and-hold believer and willing to let their own money or that of their clients experience the severe price swings the market dishes out. – Billionaire investor warren Buffet says, “Diversification makes very little sense for those who know what they are doing.” – Multimillionaire investor Jim Rogers said, “Diversification is something that stockbrokers came up with to protect themselves, so they wouldn’t get sued for making bad investment choices for clients, and that you can go broke diversifying.” The Four Stages Of Asset Prices If you think the 2022 pullback has been distressing, you better buckle up because the bear market has not even technically started yet, from my standard. Instead, in early 2023 we should enter a STAGE 4 Decline. This is when people's financial future and retirement lifestyles are created or broken, depending on how it's managed. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying the market will fall in 2023. I’m letting you know it's very possible, and you best have a plan in place. On the other hand, if the markets have some miraculous recovery and start a new bull market, well, you better have a plan for that also. Either way, you need a plan, and if you are a technical trader who follows price and manages positions, it doesn't matter what the market does; we are set either way. S&P 500 Bear Market Expectations 2023 The S&P 500 chart shows the extreme low that we could possibly reach if the economy and stock market fully unwind. Bonds would sell off as well until the Fed decides to step in and starts lowering the rates to try and save investors, but there will be a delay, and bonds will likely fall sharply before we see that take effect. CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:In short, without going off too much on a rant, you can read the three lies we are told by financial professionals that really IRK me. Because of these lies, individual investors must work harder, work longer and experience painful financial outcomes. What you may not know is that what you went through in 2008, the 2020 crash, and this year's correction could have been completely avoided. If you followed a NO BS investing method that tracks price using technical analysis, is simple to follow, and is uber-conservative, then your account would be sitting at a new all-time high watermark as of this week. The financial industry tells us to do all the wrong things, and almost everyone falls for the BS; it's so frustrating to watch! LIE #1: Diversify, Diversify, Diversify LIE #2: Bonds Are A Safe Investment And Should Represent A Large Portion Of An Investors Portfolio LIE #3: Speak With An investment Broker Or Advisor Before Placing Any Trade To Be Sure It Is Suitable For Your Personal Circumstances.  It's total baloney because almost everyone gets the same generic advice, buy-and-hold stocks and bonds, don't give up on it, ride out the rollercoaster, and you will be fine, trust me… Who came up with that strategy? Sure, my 10-year-old son could buy some stocks and bonds once, let it ride for 20-30 years, and be ok. He has time and not that much money, but the big question is at what age does the stock and bond, buy-and-hope strategy become a harmful and risky investment strategy? 50-ish years of age is my thinking. Knowing bear markets can take 3-12 years to recover from, someone who is 50+, planning to retire soon, or is already retired, doesn't have 10+ years to keep working and saving to avoid withdrawing funds from their retirement account. Also, the fact that they have the most wealth ever in their lifetime, they should be concerned about holding through future bear markets.  Don't be fooled. Just because everyone else has been brainwashed to buy-and-hold, aka buy-and-hope, and suffers stock market selloffs does not mean you should…  It's like the average investor has Stockholm syndrome. They have all been beaten up by the markets over and over again. They think that's how it should be. And in some cases are paying someone to take their money, plop it into the market, and do nothing with it for 10 - 40 years. They pay a % of their life savings each year to someone who has no risk and does not need to do too much of anything, while the investor suffers massive multi-year drawdowns, experiences high levels of stress, and sometimes big losses. The typical investing experience most people endure is NOT how it should be. There is a better way, and I can show you. My passion is trading and investing, having been at it for over 25 years. My goal is to help as many investors as possible to preserve their capital during difficult times and also be able to grow their wealth by trading only the most liquid ETFs. My investing strategy signals allow individuals to only hold assets that are rising in value.
Employees Of Amazon Are Planning Protests On Friday

Employees Of Amazon Are Planning Protests On Friday

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.11.2022 08:00
There are no statistical releases scheduled for Friday. In this case, the session will be shortened and will end at 21:00 GMT+2. In this regard, trading activity is likely to be lower than usual on the holiday-thinned market. On Thursday, the exchanges did not work because of the public holiday, Thanksgiving Day. Meanwhile, a number of important indicators will be published in the near future, including revised data on US GDP for the third quarter as well as data on the labor market for November. In addition, the country begins the season of active shopping before the holidays. Dow Jones Industrial Average by 18:02 GMT+2 increased by 0.4% and reached 34,333.97 points. Among the components of the index, the top gainers were Home Depot Inc, up 1.8%, UnitedHealth Group up 1.4% and 3M Co. - by 1.2%. The value of the Standard & Poor's 500 by this time increased by 0.06% - up to 4029.69 points. At the same time, the Nasdaq Composite index fell by 0.39% since the market opened and amounted to 11,241.63 points. Stock quotes for retailers Walmart Inc. and Target Corp. decrease respectively by 0.2% and 0.8% at the beginning of trading. Amazon.com Inc. price fell 1.1% on reports that employees at the online retailer's warehouses around the world, including the US, Germany and France, are planning protests on Friday demanding higher wages. Shares of Ford Motor dropped 0.3% on news that the company is recalling more than 634,000 SUVs worldwide due to malfunctions. Tesla's value is 1.2% down. The company announced that it is recalling about 80,000 electric vehicles in China due to problems with software and seat belts. In addition, Apple Inc. papers are trading lower, having decreased - by 1.6%, Nike Inc. - by 0.6%, Intel Corp. - by 0.5%. At the same time, the share price of Chevron Corp. has grown by 0.3%. According to media reports, the United States is preparing to grant this company a license to produce oil in Venezuela. Chevron will regain partial control of oil production in Venezuelan fields, in which the company has retained stakes through joint ventures with state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela SA.     search   g_translate     Relevance up to 03:00 2022-11-29 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/302664
Iron Ore Shipments Could Continue To Fall And Hurt Earnings And Shares

Iron Ore Shipments Could Continue To Fall And Hurt Earnings And Shares

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 28.11.2022 09:06
Summary:  Dramatic scenes of widespread protests in China against Covid policies there have pulled sentiment lower, with US yields dipping to new local lows and crude oil prices pushing on cycle lows even after Friday’s drop. The USD has firmed against most currencies, but the Japanese yen is stronger still as the fall in yields and energy prices support the currency. This is a sudden powerful new distraction for markets when this week was supposed to be about incoming US data.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures failed to touch the 200-day moving average in Friday’s trading retreating slightly into the weekend. This morning the index futures are continuing lower bouncing around just above the 4,000 level. The US 10-year yield declining to 3.65% with the 3.5% level being the likely downside level the market is eyeing is naturally offering some tailwind for equities in the short-term. However, the key dynamic to get right now in the medium term is the potential earnings recession caused by margin compression as the economy slows down and wage pressures remain high. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HISX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Mainland China and Hong Kong stock markets retreated as investors were wary about the surge in daily new Covid cases across China and the outburst of anti-strict-control protests in several mega cities, including Beijing and Shanghai. The cut in reserve requirement ratio by the central bank on Friday evening did not give the market much of a boost. Hang Seng Index and CSI 300 plunged more than 2% each. The China internet space fell 2%-5%. Macao casino stocks bucked the trend and rallied following the Macao SAR Government’s announcement to renew casino licenses with all incumbent operators. Wynn Macau (01128:xhkg) jumped nearly 16%. The three leading Chinese catering chains listed in Hong Kong gained 4% to 6%. USD and JPY firm overnight as Chinese Covid protests drag on risk sentiment The US dollar was higher overnight against most currencies even as US treasury yields hit new cycle lows as widespread protests in China against the Covid policies there are weighing heavily on risk sentiment. Hardest hit among G10 currencies has been the Aussie, with AUDUSD trading back below 0.6700 after pulling above 0.6780 at one point on Friday. USDCNH jumped above the important 7.200 level. The hit to yields and perhaps lower crude oil prices are driving a strong revival in the Japanese yen, which traded higher even against the US dollar overnight, taking USDJPY back toward the recent lows overnight. This is a sudden new distraction for FX traders, when this week was supposed to be all about the incoming US economic data, including the October PCE inflation data up on Thursday and the November jobs data on Friday. Crude oil plunges as China unrest rattles markets A weak sentiment spread across commodities as markets opened in Asia with crude oil, copper and iron ore all trading sharply lower following a weekend that saw waves of unrest in China, the world's biggest consumer of raw materials. Protest and boiled up frustration against President Xi’s increasingly unpopular anti-virus curbs erupted over the weekend, raising the threat of a government crackdown. While the short-term demand outlook may take a hit and add further downside pressure to prices, the eventual reopening is likely to be supported by massive amounts of stimulus. The market is also watching ongoing EU price cap discussions, next week’s OPEC+ meeting and rollout of an embargo on seaborne Russian crude and Chevron receiving a license to resume oil production in Venezuela. Gold (XAUUSD) Gold trades unchanged with safe haven bids in bonds and the dollar offsetting each other, while silver (XAGUSD), due to its industrial metal link, trades down more than 2% following a weekend of covid restriction protests across China. After finding support in the $1735 area last week, a break above $1765 may signal a return to key resistance at $1788, but lack of ETF buying still makes it hard to confirm a major change in direction. Aside from China, the market will be watching incoming US data for any signs of a slowdown in the pace of future rate hikes (see below) US treasuries find safe haven appeal, driving new local lows in yields. (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) The risk-off mood overnight is driving strong safe haven flows into US treasuries, as the 10-year benchmark traded to new local lows below 3.65%, with little room left to the pivotal 3.50% level. The 2-10 yield slope hit a new cycle extreme of –80 basis points overnight, a deepening indication of an oncoming recession. The 3-month treasury bills vs 10-year treasury notes spread went to minus-64bps, a level usually seen within 12 months preceding the onset of a recession. For a detailed discussion of our take on the outlook of bonds, please refer to this note we published last Friday. This week, interesting to see how the market balances the implications of what is unfolding in China versus incoming data in the US, especially the November jobs report on Friday. What is going on? Protests against Covid lockdowns in several Chinese cities Anger over suspected delays to rescue from a deadly fire burst into anti-lockdown protests in Xinjiang. After a fire at a locked-down apartment killed 10 people, hundreds of angry residents in Urumqi, Xinjiang took to the street to protest against the Covid lockdown imposed more than three months ago. Meanwhile, daily new cases shot up to a record high of 40,052, with Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing, and Shanghai significantly tightening movement restrictions. Video footage and photos on social media showed that protests against Covid restrictions sprang up in several other cities over the weekend, including Wuhan, Nanjing, Beijing, and Shanghai. China’s PBOC cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 25bps The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced a reduction of 25bps for all banks except for some small which had already had their RRR cut to 5% earlier. The weighted average of RRR across all banks falls to 7.8% from 8.1% after the latest move. The PBOC projects that the reduction in RRR will make available to banks an additional RMB400 billion. The 25bps cut this time, the same as the cut in April this year, was small by historical standards when 50bp or 100bp cuts seemed to be the norm. It helps improve banks’ funding costs, but it may do little to boost the economy as the demand for loans is subdued. The U.S. bans telecommunications equipment from China’s Huawei, ZTE and more The U.S. Federal Communications Commission said on Friday that the U.S. had decided to ban the import and sale of telecommunication equipment from China’s Huawei Technologies, ZTE, Hytera Communications, and surveillance equipment makers Dahua Technology and Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology. The U.S. regulator said these Chinese telecommunication equipment makers pose “an unacceptable risk” to U.S. communication networks and national security. RBA’s Lowe still sees a strong demand; but retail sales turned negative The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe appeared before the Australian parliament's Senate Economics Legislation Committee and said that demand is still too strong relative to supply. He said he is unsure about labor market, and wage growth is consistent with inflation returning to target. He was worried about housing supply and expects to see rental pressure over the next year. Australia’s October retail sales, however, dipped into negative territory for the first time this year, coming in at -0.2% MoM vs. expectations of +0.5%. Chevron gets US license to pump in Venezuela Chevron had been banned from pumping due to US sanctions against the government of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. But WSJ reported that on Saturday, the US said it will allow Chevron to resume pumping oil from its Venezuelan oil fields. The shift may open the door to other oil companies that had operated previously in Venezuela, despite the near-term headwinds and the massive investments that may be needed. Bullard and Powell speak – pushback against easing financial conditions? While the economic data continues to slow, and markets continue to cheer on that, it will key for Fed members to bring the focus back to easing of financial conditions and consider what that means for inflation. Chicago Fed national financial conditions index eased further in the week of November 18, bringing financial conditions to their easiest levels since May. Most of the Fed members that have spoken since that soft CPI release for October have pushed back against pivot expectations, but it hasn’t been enough. Further pushback is still needed if the Fed is serious about bringing inflation under control, and only the most hawkish members of the committee Bullard and Powell may be able to deliver that. Both will be on the wires this week. Bullard speaks on Monday while Powell discusses the economic outlook and labor market on Wednesday. Other Fed members like Williams, Bowman, Cook, Logan and Evans will also be on the wires. Commodity companies exposed to China are vulnerable for further pull backs This week focus is on companies exposed to China, given forward earnings are likely to be downgraded following further China lockdowns and protests. Be cautious that investors could be looking to take profits or write options for downside protection in commodity exposed equites. Also note, on Friday fresh data showed that the major iron ore companies, BHP, Rio, Fortescue, are likely to be shipping almost 6% less than last year, in the final quarter of this year, and if lockdowns worsen, iron ore shipments could continue to fall and hurt iron ore majors' forward earnings and shares. On Monday in Asia, the iron ore (SCOA) fell 1.6% dragging down shares of ASX listed BHP, and Rio Tinto, who both lost about 1%+. What are we watching next? Weighing the sudden new intrusion of the Chinese protests story versus incoming US data The recent narrative has been that markets have room to celebrate the downward shift in Fed tightening expectations and hopes that an eventual opening up of China’s economy will help boost global growth. The widespread protests at the weekend have changed the plot, driving new uncertainty on how things will develop and possibly outweighing a considerable portion of the implications of the next important data macro data points out of the US, especially the Friday November jobs report. As well, we’ll have a look at the ISM Manufacturing survey for the month on Thursday. The situation in China aside (which it won’t be), the question for the run-up into the December 14 FOMC meeting and in the month or so beyond is how long the market can continue to celebrate the Fed easing off the accelerator, when the reason it is doing so is that economic slowing and an eventual recession threaten. Normally, a recession is associated with poor market performance as profits fall and credit risks mount. Apple production risk is on the rise. The protests in China and the unrest around Apple’s largest manufacturing hub for its iPhone could lead to a production shortfall of close to 6mn iPhone Pro which was a Morgan Stanley estimate and was published before the intensified issues at the Apple manufacturing site. Earnings to watch 98% of the S&P 500 companies have reported Q3 earnings reducing the earnings release impact from US equities. But European and Chinese companies are still reporting although the volume of earnings releases is also getting lower. Key earnings release to watch today is Pinduoduo which is expected to grow revenue by 44% y/y with EBITDA margin expanding to 21.2% as their online marketing revenue and uptake remain strong despite the slowing Chinese economy. Monday: Pinduoduo, Capitaland, H World Group Tuesday: Li Auto, DiDi Global, Bank of Nova Scotia, Intuit, Workday, Crowdstrike, HP Enterprise, NetApp, Shaw Communication Wednesday: Royal Bank of Canada, National Bank of Canada, Salesforce, Synopsys, Snowflake, Splunk, Hormel Foods, KE Holdings Thursday: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Bank of Montreal, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Marvell Technology, Veeva Systems, Ulta Beauty, Zscaler, Dollar General, Kroger Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 1400 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 1530 – US Nov. Dallas Fed Manufacturing 1700 – US Fed’s Williams (voter) to speak 1700 – Us Fed’s Bullard (voter 2022) to speak 2330 – Japan Oct. Jobless Rate/Retail Sales Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-nov-28-2022-28112022
Chinese Protests Send Crude Oil Lower | Bitcoin Under Pressure

Chinese Protests Send Crude Oil Lower | Bitcoin Under Pressure

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 28.11.2022 10:05
Massive anti-Covid protests in the biggest Chinese cities marked the weekend. So, the week kicked off on a bad mood in the Asian markets. Australian and Chinese stock markets were painted in red. The Hang Seng index dived more than 2% in Hong Kong, and crude oil has already lost more than 3% at the time of shooting. Black Firday In the US, the record Black Day sales could hammer the joy around a potential Federal Reserve (Fed) pivot on softening US economy. The US shoppers spent more than $9 billion in online sales on Friday, and Cyber Monday is also expected to be a record-breaking one, with more than $11 billion to be spent. This is not exactly what you expect to hear when you think that the US will enter a consumer-led recession in couple of weeks from now… FX And S&P 500 The US dollar kicked off the week on a bullish note. The EURUSD slipped below the 200-DMA, near 1.0380. The S&P500 index closed last week at the highest levels since mid-September, and stands a couple of points from the year-to-date descending channel top, which could bring topsellers in, especially if strong data revives the idea that the Fed has no reason to stop hiking its interest rates. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:38 China doesn’t want Covid zero, but it’s not simple… 2:55 Chinese protests send crude oil lower 4:09 Dear Mr. Powell, Black Friday sales hit record this year… 6:32 … what should we expect? 7:03 Watch China EV deliveries, Tesla, Apple on China unrest 8:26 Bitcoin under pressure, again Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #China #Covid #protests #US #Black #Friday #Cyber #Monday #Fed #expectations #USD #EUR #crudeoil #Bitcoin #Tesla #Apple #Xpeng #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
Saxo Bank Podcast: Protests In China, Lower Yields, Lower Crude Oil, Apple Risks A Further Haircut On The Risk And More

Saxo Bank Podcast: Protests In China, Lower Yields, Lower Crude Oil, Apple Risks A Further Haircut On The Risk And More

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 28.11.2022 12:24
Summary:  Today we look at how the market is absorbing the news of widespread protests in China against Covid policies there, from lower yields to lower crude oil prices. That combination offers strong support for the Japanese yen, while Apple risks a further haircut on the risk of widening production disruptions. It is worth noting that corn prices in China are diverging from prices elsewhere, also on Covid policy disruptions. Elsewhere, we consider the status of "de-globalization" (or is it re-globalization?), and look at incoming earnings and macro calendar events for the week ahead. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com. Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-nov-28-2022-28112022
China Is Finding It Increasingly More Difficult To Leave Its Strict Covid Zero Policies

China Is Finding It Increasingly More Difficult To Leave Its Strict Covid Zero Policies

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 28.11.2022 13:40
Summary:  Our Chinese equity baskets were down around 5% last week as China is finding it increasingly more difficult to leave its strict Covid zero policies behind as case figures are surging again and protests are erupting across several locations in the country including the main manufacturing hub for Apple and its iPhone. At the other end of the spectrum the defence basket is continuing its momentum up 3.8% last week. The performance means that the defence basket could get closer to end the year as the best performing theme basket this year. The biggest gainers in the defence basket last week were Rolls-Royce and Leonardo. China continues to be out of sync with the world The biggest outliers last week among our equity theme baskets were our two Chinese equity baskets declining 4.5% and 5% respectively as rising Covid case figures dented the narrative that China can smoothly reopen their economy. Already last week there were increasing protests at different locations in China including Apple’s biggest factory that produces its key product the iPhone. This has led sell-side firms to cut their forecast for iPhone production and investors are increasingly worried Apple’s supply chain risks. The protests against China’s Covid zero policies have not eased over the weekend so this theme will continue to impact markets this week. If we zoom out and take a longer look at Chinese equities it has been miserable period since early 2010 with Chinese equities underperforming MSCI World in total return USD terms by 7.9% annualized. But especially the period since mid-2021 has been brutal with the Chinese economy undergoing severe calibrations amid a troubling real estate sector and now the disruptions from the strict Covid zero policies. We remain underweight Chinese equities long-term as the common prosperity policies will continue cause headwinds for Chinese corporate sector profitability which has been very weak since the pandemic started. MSCI China vs MSCI World (total return USD terms) | Source: Bloomberg Could defence stocks end the year on a high? The defence basket was the best performing basket last week gaining 3.8% as the ongoing geopolitical landscape in Europe around the war in Ukraine will continue to drive military spending higher. With just one month to go and the Chinese reopening narrative shattered to pieces over the past week commodities could be under pressure, so if defence stocks can muster more momentum they might even end the year as the best performing theme basket. The two best performing stocks in the defence basket last week were Rolls-Royce and Leonardo up 7.5% and 6% respectively. Roll-Royce seems to have turned a corner and 10 days ago the company’s credit was lifted to positive outlook by S&P from stable suggesting the underlying cash flow generation is improving. Leonardo is still enjoying the tailwind from its good Q3 results and the Q4 performance will likely be driven by another good quarter in its defence and helicopter segments despite looming inflationary pressures on its input costs.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/weekly-update-saxo-thematic-investing-performance-28112022