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Central bank decisions tend to be significant events in normal circumstances, but today’s decision could prove to be quite interesting for markets as different decisions are expected from each of today’s banks. While the Bank of England is set to raise its rate for the second time and signal further unwinding of its pandemic stimulus, the European central bank is expected to maintain it’s wait and see approach despite record inflation of 5,1% announced in January. According to these predictions, we could be seeing a strengthening of the pound thanks to the 0,5% interest rate, while we could sese a mixed reaction of the Euro as markets remain uncertain about the fragile economic recovery, especially given recent escalations on the Russia-Ukraine border which could destabilize the entire continent. Despite this, any surprises in today’s decisions or announcements could have far reaching effects on both the FX market and equities across Europe and the UK as central bankers struggle to balance record inflation with the post pandemic recovery. Can Amazon’s earnings support US indices? While we have seen a noticeable recovery of global indices over the past several days, yesterday’s disappointing earnings report from Meta (Facebook) saw the stock price drop and weigh on US markets as well as general sentiment. Meta’s results came one day after Alphabet announced it’s positive results and optimistic outlook and despite this mixed sentiment, we are seeing a slight pullback of stock markets as they await another mega-cap report. Amazon’s results could prove to be a significant catalyst for potential movements in the markets as a better than expected result could further boost the recent recovery while a disappointing one could drag markets further down. The company benefited greatly from the recent global situation as demand for its products and services increased noticeably thanks to a solid strategy and cost optimization. On the other hand, like many other companies that benefited from the stay-at-home lifestyle, it remains to be seen if that positive performance has carried over into this new phase.  

Yesterday’s ADP data showed that the US economy lost some 300’000 private jobs in December, versus 185’000 job additions expected by analysts, but no one cared. Google jumped by more than 7% yesterday to a fresh record high on the back of strong earnings. Nasdaq gained for the fourth consecutive session adding another 0.50% to its gains. But don’t uncork the champagne just yet! Because the Nasdaq futures are trading more than 2% lower at the time of writing. Disappointing Facebook results, and a 23% plunge in Meta shares in the afterhours trading calls for a red session in the US. Amazon is the last FAANG stock to announce earnings today, and the company is expected to reveal a second consecutive month of earnings decline. Ouch. Inflation in the Eurozone hit 5.1% in December. So, all eyes are on Christine Lagarde and what she has to say at today’s press conference. Will she insist that inflation is transitory or will she finally accept the defeat, and call it a problem? Across the Channel, the Brits will probably raise their interest rates by another 25bp for the second time at today’s meeting. Elsewhere, OPEC maintained its production increase target at 400’000 barrels per day and the consensus is a further advance in crude oil to $100pb in the foreseeable future. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:36 Market update 2:23 Facebook plunges 20% post-results 3:40 Amazon to reveal another earnings decline 5:03 European inflation puts pressure on ECB 7:12 BoE to raise rates for the second time 8:16 OPEC raises output slowly, only Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.

  Lagarde opened the door to an interest rate hike, which gave the European Central Bank a hawkish demeanor. Does it also imply more bullish gold? The ECB has awoken from its ultra-dovish lethargy. In December 2021, the central bank of the Eurozone announced that its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program would end in March 2022. Although this won’t also mean the end of quantitative easing as the ECB continues to buy assets under the APP program, the central bank will be scaling down the pace of purchases this year. Christine Lagarde, the ECB’s President, admitted it during her press conference held last week. She said: “We will stop the Pandemic Emergency Programme net asset purchases in March and then we will look at the net asset purchases under the APP.” She also left the door open for the interest rates to be raised. Of course, Lagarde did not directly signal the rate hikes. Instead, she pointed out the upside risk of inflation and acknowledged that the macroeconomic conditions have changed: We are going to use all instruments, all optionalities in order to respond to the situation – but the situation has indeed changed. You will have noticed that in the monetary policy statement that I just read, we do refer to the upside risk to inflation in our projection. So the situation having changed, we need to continue to monitor it very carefully. We need to assess the situation on the basis of the data, and then we will have to take a judgement. What’s more, Lagarde didn’t repeat her December phrase that raising interest rates in 2022 is “very unlikely”. When asked about that, she replied: as I said, I don’t make pledges without conditionalities and I did make those statements at our last press conference on the basis of the assessment, on the basis of the data that we had. It was, as all pledges of that nature, conditional. So what I am saying here now is that come March, when we have additional data, when we’ve been able to integrate in our analytical work the numbers that we have received in the last few days, we will be in a position to make a thorough assessment again on the basis of data. I cannot prejudge what that will be, but we are only a few weeks away from the closing time at which we provide the analytical work, prepare the projections for the Governing Council, and then come with some recommendations and make our decisions. It sounds very innocent, but it’s worth remembering that Lagarde is probably the most dovish central banker in the world (let’s exclude Turkish central bankers who cut interest rates amid high inflation, but they are under political pressure from Erdogan). After all, global monetary policy is tightening. For example, last week, the Bank of England hiked its main policy rate by 25 basis points and started quantitative tightening. Even the Fed will probably end quantitative easing and start raising the federal funds rate in March. In such a company, the ECB seems to be a reckless laggard. Hence, even very shy comments mean something in the case of this central bank. The markets were so impressed that they started to price in 50 basis points of rate hikes this year, probably in an exaggerated reaction.   Implications for Gold What does the latest ECB monetary policy meeting mean for the gold market? Well, maybe it wasn’t an outright revolution, but the ECB is slowly reducing its massive monetary stimulus. Although the euro area does not face the inflationary pressure of the same kind as the US, with inflation that soared to 5% in December and to 5.1% in January (according to the initial estimate), the ECB simply has no choice. As the chart below shows, inflation in the Eurozone is the highest in the whole history of euro. Additionally, in the last quarter of 2021, the GDP of the euro area finally reached its pre-pandemic level, two quarters later than in the case of the US. Europe is back in the game. The economic recovery strengthens the hawkish camp within the ECB. All of this is fundamentally bullish for gold prices. To be clear, don’t expect that Christine Lagarde will turn into Paul Volcker and hike interest rates in a rush. Given the structural problems of the euro area, the ECB will lag behind the Fed and remain relatively more dovish. However, German bond yields have recently risen, and there is still room for further increases. If the market interest rates go up more in Europe than across the pond, which is likely given the financial tightening that has already occurred in the US, the spread between American and German interest rates could narrow further (see the chart below). The narrowing divergence between monetary policies and interest rates in the US and in the Eurozone should strengthen the euro against the greenback – and it should be supportive of gold. As the chart above shows, when the spread was widening in 2012-2018, gold was in the bear market. The yellow metal started its rally at the end of 2018, just around the peak of the spread. On the other hand, if the divergence intensifies, gold will suffer. Given that Powell is expected to hike rates as soon as March, while Lagarde may only start thinking about the tightening cycle, we may have to wait a while for the spread to peak. One thing is certain: it can get hot in March! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

I've been paying close attention to Bonds as the global markets react to rising inflation and global central bank moves recently. The US Federal Reserve has yet to take any actions to raise rates, but we all know it will come at some point. Longer-term bonds are acting as if these risks are much more subdued than many traders/investors believe – which has me questioning if global central banks have overplayed the stimulus game? Why would traditional safe-haven assets fail to act in a manner that reflects current market risks like they would typically do? Why have precious metals failed to reflect these risks also properly? Is there something brewing in traders' minds that are muting or mitigating these traditional safe-haven assets? Bonds Continue To Slide After COVID Rally This table, reflecting the recent downward trend in Bonds, highlights the weakened safe-haven tendencies. These assets would generally present with rampant inflation and the possibility of multiple Fed rate increases. (Source: SeekingAlpha.com) Increasing uncertainty throughout the globe, and as inflation climbs to the highest levels since the mid-1970s and 1980s, – “where's the beef?” (to reference a 1980s Wendy's commercial phrase). This TLT Weekly chart shows how risks climbed when COVID hit in February 2020. Yet, take a look at how price has consolidated below $156 and has continued to trend lower over the past six months. After a brief move higher, to levels near the $147 to $155 level, TLT has moved decidedly lower over the past 6+ months. This downward price trend illustrates the diminishing fear levels as traders piled into the post-COVID rally phase. This move suggests traders believe inflation may be temporary or that the US Federal Reserve has room to raise rates without disrupting the global economy. I think the current premise and price trend in TLT vastly underestimates the amount of disruption a series of Fed rate hikes would cause the international markets. The US Federal Reserve will likely consider all options before taking an aggressive move to raise rates. Additionally, the US Fed may decide to allow foreign central banks to move more aggressively to raise rates while it decides to take a more measured approach to inflation. The key to future rate increases is how supply chains open up and how consumers continue to engage in economic activities. Any sudden shift by consumers, or further disruptions in supply for manufacturing and consumer staples/discretionary items, could prompt the Fed into taking aggressive actions. From where the Fed Funds Rates currently are, a move above 0.50% would reflect a +500% rate increase. This may prompt some type of “pop” in certain asset bubbles. (Source: St. Louis Fed) Traders should stay keenly focused on market risks and Bond levels throughout 2022 into 2023 as any sudden shift away from current trends could spell trouble. Right now, Bonds are pricing in minimal risks – which may be a mistake. The market dynamics and trends are changing from what we have experienced over the past 40 years for stocks and bonds. The 60/40 portfolio is costing you money now, and bonds can’t keep up with inflation and are more or less yield-less. The only way to navigate the financial markets safely, no matter the direction, is through technical analysis. By following assets and money flows, we identify trend changes and move our capital into whatever index, sector, industry, bond, commodity, country, and even currency ETF. By following the money, you become part of new emerging trends and can profit during weak stock or bond conditions. What Trading Strategies Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase. This may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

GBPUSD tests resistance The sterling edged higher after January’s retail sales beat expectations. The recent pause has been an opportunity for the bulls to accumulate. A break above 1.3640 would signal solid buying after previous failed attempts. The daily resistance at 1.3750 would be the next hurdle. Its breach could trigger a broader reversal in the weeks to come. 1.3560 is the immediate support. And 1.3490 at the lower end of the horizontal consolidation is the second line of defense in case the pair needs to attract more support. USDCAD awaits breakout The Canadian dollar tanked after disappointing retail sales in December. The US counterpart is still struggling below the supply zone around 1.2800. A close above this daily resistance could propel the pair to last December’s high at 1.2950, a prerequisite for a bullish continuation in the medium-term. The current sideways action is a sign of indecision. 1.2640 is the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range. A bearish breakout would bring the greenback to a previous low at 1.2560. EURJPY struggles for support The Japanese yen rallies amid growing risk aversion across the board. The euro continues to shed gains from the surge earlier this month. A fall below 131.90 triggered profit-taking, and the latest rally came out to be a dead cat bounce after it was capped by this support-turned-resistance. A break below 130.40 (which sits over the 30-day moving average) shows fragility in market sentiment and would cause another round of sell-off. 129.20 at the base of the bullish impetus would be the next support.

S&P 500 returned above 4,350s as credit markets indeed weren‘t leading to the downside. Consolidation now followed by more upside, that‘s the most likely scenario next. Yesterday‘s risk-on turn was reflected also in value rising more than tech. Anyway, the Nasdaq upswing is a good omen for the bulls in light of the TLT downswing – Treasuries are bucking the Powell newfound rate raising hesitation – inflation ambiguity is back. The yield curve is still compressing, and the pressure on the Fed to act, goes on – looking at where real asset prices are now, it had been indeed unreasonable to expect inflation to slow down meaningfully. Told you so – as I have written yesterday:(…) What‘s most interesting about bonds now, is the relenting pressure on the Fed to raise rates – the 2-year yield is moving down noticeably, and that means much practical progress on fighting inflation can‘t be expected. Not that there was much to start with, but the expectations of the hawkish Fed talk turning into action, are being dialed back. The current geopolitical events provide a scene to which attention is fixated while inflation fires keep raging on with renewed vigor (beyond energies) – just as I was calling for a little deceleration in CPI towards the year end bringing it to probably 5-6%, this figure is starting to look too optimistic on the price stability front.Predictable consequence are strong appreciation days across the board in commodities and precious metals. – let‘s enjoy the sizable open profits especially in oil and copper. I told you weeks ago that real assets are where to look for in portfolio gains – and even the modest S&P 500 long profits taken off the table yesterday, are taking my portfolio performance chart to fresh highs. Crude oil keeps rising as if there‘s no tomorrow, copper is joining in, agrifoods are on fire – and precious metals continue being very well bid. Cryptos aren‘t selling off either. Anyway, this is the time of real assets...Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls are back, and I‘m looking for consolidation around these levels. The very short-term direction isn‘t totally clear, but appears favoring the bulls unless corporate junk bonds crater. Not too likely.Credit MarketsHYG performance shows rising risk appetite, but the waning volume is a sign of caution for today. Unless LQD and TLT rise as well, HYG looks short-term stretched, therefore I‘m looking for consolidation today.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are doing great, and they merely corrected yesterday – both gold and silver can be counted on to extend gains if you look at the miners‘ message. As the prospects of vigorous Fed action gets dialed back, they stand to benefit even more.Crude OilCrude oil surge is both justified and unprecedented – and oil stocks aren‘t weakening. It looks like we would consolidate in the volatile range around $110 next.CopperCopper is joining in the upswing increasingly more, and the buyer‘s return before the close looks sufficient to maintain upside momentum that had been questioned earlier in the day. The break higher out of the long consolidation, is approaching.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto buyers are consolidating well deserved gains, and the bullish flag is being formed. The sellers are nowhere to be seen at the moment – I‘m still looking for the current tight range to be resolved to the upside next.SummaryS&P 500 has reached a short-term resistance, which would be overcome only should bonds give their blessing. It‘s likely these would confirm the risk-on turn, but HYG looks a bit too extended – its consolidation of high ground gained, could slow the stock bulls somewhat. The risk appetite and „rush to safety“ in commodities and precious metals goes on, more or less squeezing select assets such as crude oil. The CRB Index upswing is though of the orderly and broad advance flavor, and does reflect the prospects of inflation remaining elevated for longer than foreseen by the mainstream.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  Kherson fell, but Ukrainians are still fighting fiercely. In the face of war, gold also shows courage – to move steadily up. The battle of Ukraine is still going on. Russian troops took control of Kherson, a city of about 300,000 in the south of Ukraine, but other main cities haven’t been captured yet. Ukrainian soldiers even managed to conduct some counter-offensive actions near the country’s capital. There is a large Russian column advancing on Kyiv, but its progress has been very slow over the last few days due to the staunch Ukrainian resistance and Russian forces’ problems with equipment, tactics, and supplies, including fuel and food. David is still bravely fighting Goliath! Of course, Russian forces still have an advantage and are progressing. However, the pace of the invasion is much slower than Vladimir Putin and his generals expected. The Ukrainians’ defense is much fiercer, while Russia’s losses are more severe. The Russian defense ministry admitted that 498 Russian soldiers have already been killed and 1,597 wounded, but the real number is probably much higher. Even if Russia takes control of other cities, it’s unclear whether it will be able to hold them. What’s more, although the West didn’t engage directly in the war, the response of the West was much stronger than Putin could probably have expected. The US and its allies supplied Ukraine with weapons and imposed severe sanctions against Putin and the Russian governing elite, as well as on Russia’s economy and financial system. For instance, the West decided to exclude several Russian banks from SWIFT and also to freeze most of Russian central bank’s foreign currency reserve assets. Additionally, many international companies are moving out of Russia or exporting their products to this country, adding to the economic pressure. The ruble plummeted, as the chart below shows.   Implications for Gold What does the ongoing war in Ukraine mean for the precious metals market? Well, the continuous heroic stance of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ukrainian defenders is not only heating up the hearts of all freedom-lovers, but also gold prices. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal has soared to about $1,930, the highest level since January 2021. As a reminder, until recently, gold was unable to surpass $1,800. Thus, the recent rally is noteworthy. The war is clearly boosting the safe-haven demand for gold. Another bullish driver is rising inflation. According to early estimates, euro area annual inflation soared from 5.1% in January to 5.8%, and the war is likely to add to the inflationary pressure due to rising energy prices. Both Brent and WTI oil prices have surged above $110 per barrel. Last but not least, I have to mention Powell’s appearance before Congress. In the prepared testimony, he said that the Fed would hike the federal funds rate this month, despite the war in Ukraine: Our monetary policy has been adapting to the evolving economic environment, and it will continue to do so. We have phased out our net asset purchases. With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, we expect it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate at our meeting later this month. This sounds rather hawkish and, thus, bearish for gold. However, Powell acknowledged that the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain. The near-term effects on the U.S. economy of the invasion of Ukraine, the ongoing war, the sanctions, and of events to come, remain highly uncertain. Making appropriate monetary policy in this environment requires a recognition that the economy evolves in unexpected ways. We will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook. Hence, the war in Eastern Europe could make the Fed more dovish than expected at a time when inflation could be higher than forecasted before the war outbreak. Such an environment should be bullish for the gold market. However, there is one important caveat. The detailed analysis of gold prices shows that they declined around the first and second rounds of negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian diplomats in anticipation of the end of the conflict. However, when it became apparent that the talks ended in a stalemate, gold resumed its upward move. The implication should be clear: as long as the war continues, the yellow metal may shine, but when the ceasefire or truce is agreed, we could see a correction in the gold market. It doesn’t have to be a great plunge, but a large part of the geopolitical premium will disappear. Having said that, the war may take a while. I pray that I’m wrong, but the slow progress of the Russian invasion could prompt Vladimir Putin to adopt a “whatever it takes” stance. According to some experts, he is already more emotional than usual, and when faced with the prospects of failure, he could become even more brutal or irrational. We already see that Russian troops, unable to break the Ukrainian defense in open combat, siege the cities and bomb civilians. Hence, the continuation or escalation of Russia’s military actions could provide support for gold prices. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

  Gold has hit $2,000 but is still struggling to maintain that historical level. It has already tried 8 times - will the ninth attempt succeed? Many indications make this doubtful. Gold is attempting to break above the $2,000 milestone, and miners are trying to break above their declining resistance line. Will they manage to do so, and if so, how long will the rally last? Yesterday, gold didn’t manage to close above the $2,000 level and it’s making another attempt to rally above it in today’s pre-market trading. However, will it be successful? Given the RSI above 70 and the strength of the current resistance, it’s doubtful. In fact, nothing has changed with regard to this likelihood since yesterday, so what I wrote about it in the previous Gold & Silver Trading Alert remains up-to-date: Gold touched $2,000 in today’s pre-market trading, which is barely above its 2021 high and below its 2020 high. Crude oil is way above both analogous levels. In other words, gold underperforms crude oil to a significant extent, just like in 2003. Interestingly, back in 2003, gold topped when crude oil rallied about 40% from its short-term lows (the late-2002 low). What happened next in 2003? Gold declined, and the moment when crude oil started to visibly outperform gold was also the beginning of a big decline in gold stocks. That makes perfect sense on the fundamental level too. Gold miners’ share prices depend on their profits (just like it’s the case with any other company). Crude oil at higher levels means higher costs for the miners (the machinery has to be fueled, the equipment has to be transported, etc.). When costs (crude oil could be viewed as a proxy for them) are rising faster than revenues (gold could be viewed as a proxy for them), miners’ profits appear to be in danger; and investors don’t like this kind of danger, so they sell shares. Of course, there are many more factors that need to be taken into account, but I just wanted to emphasize one way in which the above-mentioned technical phenomenon is justified. Back in 2003, gold stocks wiped out their entire war-concern-based rally, and the biggest part of the decline took just a bit more than a month. Let’s remember that back then, gold stocks were in a very strong medium- and long-term uptrend. Right now, mining stocks remain in a medium-term downtrend, so their decline could be bigger – they could give away their war-concern-based gains and then decline much more. Mining stocks are not declining profoundly yet, but let’s keep in mind that history rhymes – it doesn’t repeat to the letter. As I emphasized previously today, back in 2003 and 2002, the tensions were building for a longer time, and it was relatively clear in advance that the U.S. attack was going to happen. This time, Russia claimed that it wouldn’t attack until the very last minute before the invasion. Consequently, the “we have to act now” is still likely to be present, and the dust hasn’t settled yet – everything appears to be unclear, and thus the markets are not returning to their previous trends. Yet. However, as history shows, that is likely to happen. Either immediately, or shortly, as crude oil is already outperforming gold. The above chart features the GDXJ ETF. As you can see, the junior miners moved to their very strong resistance provided by the declining resistance line. This resistance is further strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and the previous (late-2021) high. This means that it’s particularly strong, and any breakout here would likely be invalidated shortly. Given the clear sell signal from the RSI indicator, a turnaround here is even more likely. I marked the previous such signals to emphasize their efficiency. When the RSI was above 70, a top was in 6 out of 7 of the recent cases, and the remaining case was shortly before the final top, anyway. This resistance seems to be analogous to the $2,000 level in gold. By the way, please note that gold tried to break above $2,000 several times: twice in August 2020; twice in September 2020 (once moving above it, once moving just near this level); once in November 2020 (moving near this level); once in January 2021 (moving near this level); once in February 2022 (moving near this level). These attempts failed in each of the 7 cases mentioned above. This is the eight attempt. Will this very strong resistance break this time? Given how much crude oil has already soared, and how both markets used to react to war tensions in the case of oil-producing countries, it seems that the days of the rally are numbered. Moving back to the GDXJ ETF, please note that while gold is moving close to its all-time highs, the junior miners are not doing anything like that. In fact, they barely moved slightly above their late-2021 high. They are not even close to their 2021 high, let alone their 2020 high. Instead, junior mining stocks are just a bit above their early-2020 high, from which their prices were more than cut in half in less than a month. In other words, junior miners strongly underperform gold, which is a bearish sign. When gold finally declines – and it’s likely to, as geopolitical events tend to have only a temporary effect on prices, even if they’re substantial – junior miners will probably slide much more than gold. One of the reasons is the likely decline in the general stock market. I recently received a question about the impact the general stock market has on mining stocks, as the latter moved higher despite stocks’ decline in recent weeks. So, let’s take a look at a chart that will feature junior mining stocks, the GLD ETF, and the S&P 500 Index. Before the Ukraine crisis, the link between junior miners and the stock market was clear. Now, it's not as clear, but it’s still present. Juniors only moved to their late-2021 highs, while gold is over $100 above those highs. Juniors underperform significantly, in tune with the stock market's weakness. The gold price is still the primary driver of mining stock prices – including junior mining stocks. After all, that’s what’s either being sold by the company (that produces gold) or in the properties that the company owns and explores (junior miners). As gold prices exploded in the last couple of weeks, junior miners practically had to follow. However, this doesn’t mean that the stock market’s influence is not present nor that it’s going to be unimportant going forward. Conversely, the weak performance of the general stock market likely contributed to junior miners’ weakness relative to gold – the former didn’t rally as much as the latter. Since the weakness in the general stock market is likely to continue, and gold’s rally is likely to be reversed (again, what happened in the case of other military conflicts is in tune with history, not against it), junior miners are likely to decline much more profoundly than gold. Speaking of the general stock market, it just closed at the lowest level since mid-2021. The key thing about the above chart is that what we’ve seen this year is the biggest decline since 2020, and the size of the recent slide is comparable to what we saw as the initial wave down in 2020 – along with the subsequent correction. If these moves are analogous, the recent rebound was perfectly normal – there was one in early 2020 too. This also means that a much bigger decline is likely in the cards in the coming weeks, and that it’s already underway. This would be likely to have a very negative impact on the precious metals market, in particular on junior mining stocks (initially) and silver (a bit later). All in all, it seems that due to the technical resistance in gold and mining stocks, the sizable – but likely temporary (like other geopolitical-event-based-ones) – rally is likely to be reversed shortly. Then, as the situation in the general stock market deteriorates, junior miners would be likely to plunge in a spectacular manner. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Five-day DAX Price Chart shows it went up after a significant decline few days ago. However, today’s daily chart shows there’s a small downtrend and many companies have decreased since yesterday. Significantly affected - two major automotive industries and Delivery Hero. All of presented charts are courtesy of TradingView.com GER 40 has caught the ‘ground level’, but still trades Ca. 8% lower than before warfare in the Eastern Europe as chart shows: But what about last 24 hours what triggers us mostly? A decline amounts to ca. 3%. Many of stocks have decreased by these three – BMW, MBG And DHER have done it significantly. Mercedes-Benz AG has declined by almost 6% BMW has neared the -7% level. Delivery Hero (DHER) has plunged by almost 6.5%, have a look at the chart below: Source: TradingView.com, Investing.com, Capital.com

From time to time, we may want to consider volatility as an ally. After all, why would highly volatile markets necessarily mean more losing trades?The first target was hit – BOOM! Today – just before the weekend – it is time to bank some profits from my recent trade projections (provided on March 2). Since then, the trade plan has provided our dear subscribers with multiple bounces to trade the NYMEX Natural Gas Futures (April contract) in various ways, always depending on each one’s personal risk profile.The first possibility is the swing trading with trailing stop method explained in my famous risk management article.Trade entry triggered on Tuesday, March 8 (firm rebound on yellow band), stop lifted once price extends beyond mid-point (median) price between first target and entry, thus ending at $4.607 (black dotted line), given the market closed at its daily high of $4.704 (purple dotted line) that same day and assuming you entered that long trade at $4.550 (top of the yellow band). That was a quick one that lasted only a couple hours for the day traders who closed their trades at the regular market close (two candles later, see below chart). For the swing traders, the win-stop was triggered the next day (Wednesday) on the following pull-back. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, hourly chart)The second option is to scale the rebounds with fixed targets (active or experienced traders).This method consists of “riding the tails” (or the shadows). To get a better grasp of this concept, let’s zoom out on a 4H-chart so you can see the multiple rebounds of the price characterized by the shadows (or tails) of candlesticks, where a crowd of bulls are placing buy orders around that yellow support zone, therefore squeezing bears by pushing prices towards the upside (like some sort of rope pulling game). This trading style often requires stops to be tighter with some profit-to-risk ratio greater than 1.5 (with usually fixed targets). Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, 4H chart)Third possibility: position trading. This is probably the most passive trading style, as it would suit everyone’s busy timetable (and be the most rewarding). This is usually the one we privilege at Sunshine Profits since it allows us to provide trade projections some time in advance for our patient sniper traders to lock in their trading targets and take sufficient time to assess the associated risk with each projection as part of a full trade plan (or flying map).Let’s zoom out again to spot our first target getting hit today on a daily chart so we can have an overall view of the next target to be locked in while lifting our stop to breakeven (entry), previous swing low ($4.450) or using an Average True Range (ATR) ratio as some of you may like to use:Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)That’s all folks for today. Have a great weekend!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Bitcoin price loses momentum as it slides back into consolidation along the $36,398 to $38,895 demand zone. Ethereum price slides below a symmetrical triangle, hinting at a move below $2,000. Ripple price remains bullish as bulls eye a retest of $1 psychological level. Bitcoin price continues to tag the immediate demand area, weakening it. Despite the sudden bursts in buying pressure, BTC seems to be in consolidation mode. Ethereum price has triggered a bearish outlook while Ripple price shows signs of heading higher. Also read: Gold Price Forecast: Lower lows hinting at a steeper decline Bitcoin price moves with no sense of direction Bitcoin price dips into the $36,398 to $38,895 demand zone for the fourth time without producing any higher highs. This price action is indicative of a consolidation and is likely to breach lower. A daily candlestick close below $36,398 will invalidate the demand zone and knock BTC to retest the weekly support level at $34,752, which is the last line of defense. A breakdown of this barrier will open the path for bears to crash Bitcoin price to $30,000 or lower. Here, market makers will push BTC below $29,100 to collect liquidity resting below the equal lows formed in mid-2021. BTC/USD 1-day chart While things look inauspicious for Bitcoin price, a strong bounce off the said demand zone that retests the weekly supply zone, ranging from $45,550 to $51,860, will provide some relief for bulls. Ethereum price favors bears Ethereum price action from January 22 to March 4 created three lower highs and higher lows, which, when connected via trend lines, resulted in a symmetrical triangle formation. This technical formation forecasts a 26% move obtained by measuring the distance between the first swing high and swing low to the breakout point. On March 6, ETH breached below, signaling a bearish breakout, which puts the theoretical target at $1,962. A breakdown of the weekly support level at $2,541 is vital; a breakdown of this barrier will expedite the move lower. ETH/USD 1-day chart Regardless of the recent onslaught of bearishness, Ethereum price needs to produce a daily candlestick close above $3,413 to invalidate the bullish thesis. Such a development will also open the possibility of kick-starting a potential uptrend. https://youtu.be/-U0QTf_NwnI Ripple price maintains its bullish momentum Ripple price traverses a bull flag continuation pattern, a breakout from which hints at a continuation of the uptrend. This technical formation contains an impulsive move higher followed by a consolidation in the form of a pennant. The 55% rally between February 3 and 8 formed a bullish flag pole continuation pattern, and the consolidation that ensued in the form of lower highs and higher lows created the pennant. Together, the bullish setup forecasts a 31% ascent for XRP price, obtained by adding the flag pole’s height to the breakout point from the pennant. On March 11, Ripple price broke out from the pennant, signaling the start of the 31% uptrend to $1. So far, the retest seems to be holding up well, so investors can expect the remittance token to continue its journey higher to the $1 psychological level. XRP/USD 1-day chart A daily candlestick close below the immediate demand zone, ranging from $0.689 to $0.705, will create a lower low and invalidate the bullish thesis for Ripple price. In such a case, XRP has the twelve-hour demand zone, extending from $0.546 to $0.633 to support any residual selling pressure. https://youtu.be/rCFQmMHWJZ4

Bitcoin is needed as an alternative   The weakened US-Dollar and the present unexpected climate seems not being fully reflected in bitcoin´s price. Consequently, bitcoin prices could soar in the not too distant future. Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart, bottom building: Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart as of March 15th, 2022. A phenomenon in times of crisis is that individuals look for absolutes or extremes to resolve difficult circumstances. We instead advocate a more principle-based process of solving problems, an approach of choices. Regarding wealth preservation, this would mean gold and silver alongside bitcoin. The daily chart of the bitcoin/gold-ratio shows the bottom building after a downtrend. Currently, one can purchase a bitcoin for twenty ounces of gold. Nearly half as much as five months ago. Indeed, an opportunity to rotate one’s precious metal holding partially into a cheap bitcoin acquisition.     Bitcoin, monthly chart, in waiting position: Bitcoin in USD, monthly chart as of March 15th, 2022. War inherently divides nations, and that does not mean limiting only the ones directly in conflict with each other. It is this divide that, in addition, fuels the competition for each nation to be first in their digital currency release. Sanctioned countries have limited access to the US-Dollar. Consequently, they are highly motivated to create an alternate payment method. The monthly chart is not showing this fundamental support for bitcoin. Early signs of a triangle show that we find likely to break to the upside. Slow stochastic indicator reading (A) shows that the last time around at these levels, a strong up move followed. Similar to the yellow CCI turbo line-level reading (B). Before such a move, we witnessed a quick price spike down (C), which would be no surprise. Bitcoin, weekly chart, bitcoin as an alternative is needed: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 15th, 2022. Zooming into the weekly time frame, we can make out the battle between bulls and bears in more detail. Over the last three weeks, prices were rejected above the POC (point of control = high volume node, where our volume profile analysis ranges over the previous fifteen months). As well, price behavior is reflecting the war climate’s uncertainty. At the same time, the bulls have held steady any attempt of the bears trying to push prices below US$37,500. Hence, we should see a substantial move once trading snaps out of this “magnet trading” to the high-volume node. Bitcoin, daily chart, gains and volatility: Bitcoin in USD, daily chart as of March 15th, 2022. The daily chart of bitcoin above describes how we see the future unfold. We anticipate the price to reach all-time highs within the upcoming month. Unfortunately, not in bitcoins typical swing trading manner. We foresee a choppy, volatile market. Consequently, short and midterm trading will be challenging. Stepping up in time frame is a helpful approach to avoid the noise. Bitcoin is needed as an alternative: Governments will try to keep their monopolies and power. However, we don’t think that the adoption of a digital dollar by the masses will not be that easy. We find this especially true to be in a highly transitory time of rapid changes and many challenges. Typically, multiple propaganda waves through media have bridged such doubt but might have lost some of its trustworthiness. Consequently, bitcoin has a fair chance for mass adoption just as well. It already has a history and carries inherent features of freedom that people might long for more than anticipated.   Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 15th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

BTC added 1.4% over the past day to $39.3K. Attempts to develop an offensive ran into a selling wall. The most important line of defense in the first cryptocurrency at the 38.0K area is still more confident withstanding all bear attacks. Ethereum added 3.1% to $2.6K in 24 hours. Other leading altcoins range from a 6% decline (Terra) to a 4.5% rise (Polkadot). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 1.4%, to $1.75 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index lost 0.1 percentage points to 42.6%. Cryptocurrency fear and greed index added 3 points to 24, although it remains in the territory of "extreme fear". The FxPro Analyst Team mentioned that during the Asian session, there was a sharp jump in the rate from $39.2K to $41.7K, followed by an almost equally rapid pullback to the area below $39.0K. Stop orders were triggered in the morning low-liquid market, but it is clear that the selling pressure remains huge. In fact, since February 10, the rises in the Bitcoin rate have become less and less long and end at ever lower levels. The reason for the jump in prices in early trading in Asia was the statements of official Beijing on support for the markets, which caused a rally in the shares of the region. However, Bitcoin frankly ignored the drawdown of Asian stocks in recent days, so it quickly returned to its place, because other factors have become its key drivers in recent days. Meanwhile, Glassnode believes that bitcoin investors may face a final capitulation. This is indicated by the high proportion of "unprofitable" coins among short-term holders. At the same time, the uncertainty associated with geopolitics and the Fed rate weakened the accumulation of BTC by hodlers and caused an increase in sales on their part.

  St. Patrick’s Day is historically considered among the best trading days. Apparently, judging by the results, it may have brought some luck to natural gas. If you are interested in looking at the stats, an article by Market Watch summed them up. The second target hit – BOOM! Yesterday, on St. Patrick's Day, the opportunity to bank the extra profits from my recent Nat-Gas trade projections (provided on March 2) finally arrived. That trade plan has provided traders with multiple bounces to trade the NYMEX Natural Gas Futures (April contract) in various ways, always depending on each one’s personal risk profile. To get some more explanatory details on understanding the different trading ways this fly map (trading plan) could offer, I invite you to read my previous article (from March 11). To quickly sum it up, the various trade opportunities that could be played were as follows (with the following captures taken on March 11): The first possibility is swing trading, with the trailing stop method explained in my famous risk management article. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, hourly chart) The second option consisted of scalping the rebounds with fixed targets (active or experienced traders). I named this method “riding the tails” (or the shadows). Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, 4H chart) The third way is position trading – a more passive trading style (and usually more rewarding). Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) The chart below shows a good overall view of NYMEX Natural Gas hitting our final target, $4.860: Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, 4H chart) As you can see, the market has provided us with multiple entries into the same support zone (highlighted by the yellow band) – even after hitting the first target, you may have noticed that I maintained the entry conditions in place – after the suggestion to drag the stop up just below the new swing low ($4.450). The market, still in a bull run, got very close to that point on March 15 by making a new swing low at $4.459 (just about 10 ticks above it). Before that, it firmly rebounded once more (allowing a new/additional entry) and then extended its gains further away while consecutively hitting target 1 ($4.745) again. After that, it finally hit target 2 ($4.860)! That’s all folks for today. It is time to succesfully close this trade. Have a great weekend! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Yesterday we were following forex pairs with dollars. Everybody follows dollar index (DXY) to check market’s reaction to Fed rhetoric which is verbalised by Jerome Powell (Chairman) again. Next rate hikes are highly expected. EUR/USD Chart GBP/USD Chart USD/JPY Chart USD/PLN Chart - exotic pair has gained this time, dollar seems to feel better Source/Data: Investing.com, Goldman Sachs, TradingView.com

Summary: Apple stock prices are facing pressure amidst lockdown in China causing concerns over supply. Amazon stock prices are being heavily affected by current market sentiment. Apple stock prices are declining despite investor confidence in their Q1 earnings announcements. In general market sentiment is showing bearish signals, but this negative sentiment is lying heavily on BigTech stocks, this sentiment runs so deep that buying BigTech stocks almost makes sense. According to some analysts, the sentiment on tech stocks is so bad at the moment that there has to be an end in sight coming soon. After the market close today, we can expect Apple (APPL) to announce their earnings reports. After the market close today, we can expect Apple (APPL) to announce their earnings reports. The Apple stocks have been falling drastically over the past week inlight of uncertainty around the lockdowns in China and how they will affect the second quarter's earnings. However, investors do expect the earnings from Apple’s first quarter to be favourable. APPL Stock Price Chart Read next: Zuckerberg Didn't Shock Market! Meta Platforms Inc. (FB) Q1 Earnings Announcement Expected Whilst GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Delivers Favorable Figures  Amazon (AMZN) earnings report due later today. There is a lot of weight that has been riding on the tech companies earnings announcements this week, with amazon due to make their earnings announcements later today along with Apple, the market sentiment is bearish. Even if all the Q1 earnings announcements from the BigTech companies were favourable (which has not been the case), the market would still struggle to recover from the current negative sentiment. Over the past week the price of Amazon's stock has been falling over the past week inlight of the negative market sentiment. With the employees from one of the warehouses of Amazon lobbying to unionise, increasing prices and supply problems could be indications of potential earnings struggles for this tech giant. Amazon.com Price Chart Read next: (MSFT) Microsoft and (GOOGL) Alphabet's (Google) Earnings Announcements Due Later Today  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, barrons.com, fastcompany.com

Summary: Amazon causes poor investor sentiment. Apple shocks the market. Musk going after Coca-Cola next?? Amazon (AMZN) stock prices show improving investor confidence despite disappointing revenue forecasts. During post market trading yesterday, the AMZN share price fell by almost 10%. This fall comes after the tech giant made its earnings announcement, this was because the earnings missed investor forecasts. The slightly disappointing revenue in Q1 of Amazon came as a result, amongst other things, of a decrease in consumer spending online and a return to in-person-activities. Amazon attributed its disappointing earnings to the current adverse economic conditions partly coming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and partly from the issues around supply chains. Their earnings increase is 37% lower (Q1 2022: 7%, Q1 2021: 44%) than this time last year and their EPS has fallen by 0.84 cents for the same time period. AMZN Share Price Chart Read next: (APPL) Apple Earnings and (AMZN) Amazon Earnings Are Due To Be Announced! What To Expect?  Apple earnings announcement left investors feeling bullish Apple share prices increase inlight of favorable earnings reported by the tech giant. The earnings reported were better than the market expected. Although the Q1 earnings for Apple are causing the share price to increase, concerns still remain around the future supply chains of this tech giant, they can be heavily impacted by China’s “zero-covid” policy and its lockdowns. APPL Share Price Chart Elon Musk targeting Coca-Cola next? On Wednesday night Elon Musk posted a tweet on his platform suggesting or joking about acquiring the Coca-Cola company, this comes after his offer to buy Twitter (TWTR) was approved by the board. Musks tweet was as follows “Next I’m buying Coca-Cola to put the cocaine back in”. Although many of the world’s richest man's followers saw the tweet as a joke, there was a time when people thought his quest for TWTR was a joke too. The tweet caused Coca-Cola’s share price to drop hugely, the price has since recovered, but what does the future hold for this beverage giant ? KO Share Price Chart Read next: Zuckerberg Didn't Shock Market! Meta Platforms Inc. (FB) Q1 Earnings Announcement Expected Whilst GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Delivers Favorable Figures  Sources: dailyfx.com, Finance.yahoo.com

After years of heavy pressure on revenues in the telecom sector, we make a call for near-term revenue stabilisation. From an operational perspective, the main themes for the telecom sector are the build-out of 5G and fibre networks. To improve the relative position of the sector regulators should review their measures to provide a more level playing field Source: Shutterstock War has a limited impact on the telecom sector European- and US-based telecom operators are rather insulated from the conflict in Ukraine. Major operators have no sales in the region, the exception being VEON, which is largely exposed, since it is active in Russia and Ukraine. Telekom Austria had only 7.4% of its FY 2021 revenues coming from Belarus. For now, the impact of the war seems limited, with most companies maintaining their 2022 outlook. Typically, demand for telecom services grows in line with GDP. If a severe recession would hit the global economy, telecom operators and handset vendors probably have to adjust revenue expectations in line with GDP expectations, on average. In Europe, however, service revenues have historically already been under pressure because of strong competition. We do not foresee a substantial impact on the financial solidity of companies resulting from this crisis. The biggest risk for the sector comes from cyberwarfare The biggest risk for the sector comes from cyberwarfare. State sponsored hackers could engage at some point in cyberwarfare, something the US government warns about. Hackers could try to impair (local) infrastructure, while telecom companies have to up their defenses. Interestingly, so far, we have seen limited impact from cyberwarfare that could possibly have been initiated as a part of the war in Ukraine. However, we are starting to see revenue stabilisation in a couple of markets. For example, the market leaders in the Dutch, French, Belgian and German markets are close to revenue stabilisation. This is mainly driven by new broadband products, which are often offered with mobile services in a bundled product. Restructuring programmes continue to modernise the back-office of the operators and to phase out legacy technologies. Once programmes are over, this could be a tailwind for profitability. Despite good traction from bundled products and new high ARPU fibre products, many incumbents have segments that see price pressure, often in the business segments. This explains why we see positive trends in the sector, while revenues are not showing strong positive growth rates. Domestic revenue trends European telecom operators Source: Company, ING Aiming for a level playing field The European Commission aims for gigabit broadband for all households as well as for a fast 5G mobile connection in populated areas, which should be reached by 2030. It also aims to rein in some large technology companies. It has published proposals for the Digital Services Act (DSA) and the Digital Markets Act (DMA) which should reduce the dominance of the large technology platforms and create a level playing field with other sectors in Europe. The EU member states and European Parliament said they welcome the proposals. These are now subject to formal approval by the two co-legislators before they will be applicable. Hopefully, the competitive position of telecom companies will improve as well at some point in the future. Competition has been promoted... and this has lowered prices for telecom services as well Regulation has seriously impaired the profitability of telecom companies through tariff measures (for broadband wholesale access and roaming tariffs). Competition has been promoted, with four mobile operators in many European countries. This has lowered prices for telecom services as well. Governments have raised a lot of money through spectrum auctions and often incentivised new operators entering the market. Finally, product differentiation has been difficult because of net neutrality regulations. As a consequence, free cash flow has been under pressure from both weaker revenues, as well as heavy investments and dividends. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM A case in point is Telecom Italia, which had a solid investment grade rating in 2005, but is now rated in high yield territory. The Italian market is characterised by heavy competition, while the company explains that its fixed network faces relatively high regulatory pressure from a multitude of measures. The company faces substantial pressure on revenues, as can be seen in the figure above. The interim result is that the company is investigating a break-up, having ramifications for the speed of the broadband roll-out in Italy. The downward pressure on credit ratings has been more widespread in the European telecom sector since most companies have already seen rating downgrades. This is illustrated in the table below. Downward rating pressure for European telecom operators Source: S&P Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM As a result, telecom companies have been at the wrong spot in the value chain, while companies that sell telecom equipment, media content or cloud storage have performed very well, as is shown in the figure below. While large technology companies have the means to invest in new (transatlantic) fibre networks, incumbents often can’t fund all of their network investments from their cash flows. In our opinion regulators should pay attention to a call by the European Telecom Network Organisation (ETNO) in which they ask for a fair contribution for the network investment costs from companies that extensively use broadband networks. Since 2015, unregulated firms did profit from internet with market cap. growth Source: Refinitiv Sector trends contribute to revenue stability Nevertheless, broadband connectivity will likely improve across Europe and 5G is here to stay. The private sector is investing heavily, but there are also plans to invest €13bn in digital connectivity as part of the European Resilience and Recovery Plan. Typically, customer retention is relatively healthy for fibre products, especially when combined in a fixed-mobile converged offer. Net mobile networks and services could also contribute to the goal of revenue stability and eventually growing revenues. This year, 5G products and services will likely become widespread. However, it will be key for mobile operators to find good pricing policies for these new 5G services.   Read this article on THINK TagsTelecom sector European telecoms Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Could Amazon Stock Price draw a zigzag?  AMZN shares are expected to develop a zigzag, which consists of sub-waves a-b-c of the cycle degree. Perhaps the market has completed the formation of the first major wave a, it represents a bullish 5-wave impulse. Since the end of last year, there has been a decline in the price, which may indicate the beginning of the construction of a bearish correction b. This correction may take the form of a zigzag â’¶-â’·-â’¸. Most likely, in the near future we will see a continuation of the depreciation of stocks in the final intermediate wave (5), which may end the primary impulse wave at 93.41. At that level, wave (5) will be at 76.4% of previous impulse (3). Read next: Russia Suspends Flow Through The Nord Stream 1 Pipeline, Cotton Futures, Gold Prices Increase For The First Time In 3-weeks| FXMAG.COM After the end of the impulse wave â’¶, the stock is expected to rise in the primary correction â’·. Another scenatio for AMZN Let's consider a scenario in which the market has completed the formation of the primary wave â’¶. According to this markup, the wave â’¶ has the form of a leading diagonal (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5). In this case, in the last section of the chart, we see a price increase within the bullish correction â’·. It is assumed that the correction wave â’· will take the form of an intermediate double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y), where the actionary wave (W) is also a double zigzag W-X-Y of a lesser degree. It is possible that the correction â’· will be at 61.8% of wave â’¶. Thus, its completion is expected to reach the level of 154.91. An approximate scheme of possible future movement is shown on the chart.

AMZN suggests the development of a zigzag, which consists of sub-waves a-b-c of the cycle degree. Perhaps the market has completed the formation of the first major wave a, it is a bullish 5-wave impulse In the last section of the chart, we see a decrease in the price, which may indicate the beginning of a bearish correction b. It may take the form of a zigzag â’¶-â’·-â’¸. Most likely, in the near future we will see a continuation of the depreciation of stocks in the final intermediate wave (5), which may end the primary impulse wave near 93.41. At that level, wave (5) will be at 76.4% of previous impulse (3). After the end of the impulse wave â’¶, the stock is expected to rise in the primary correction â’·. However, it is possible that the market has completed the formation of the primary wave â’¶. According to this markup, the wave â’¶ has the form of a leading diagonal (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5). In this case, in the last section of the chart, we see the price increase in a bullish correction â’·. It is assumed that the correction wave â’· will take the form of an intermediate double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y), where the actionary wave (W) is also a double zigzag W-X-Y of a lesser degree. It is possible that the correction â’· will be at 61.8% of wave â’¶. Thus, its completion is expected to reach the level of 155.06. An approximate scheme of possible future movement is shown on the chart.

The structure of AMZN shares shows the development of a corrective trend. It is assumed that a zigzag is formed, which consists of sub-waves a-b-c of the cycle degree. Perhaps at the end of last year, the market completed the formation of the first major wave a, it is a bullish 5-wave impulse. After the end of the impulse growth, the price began to decline, which may indicate the beginning of a bearish correction b. It may take the form of a zigzag â’¶-â’·-â’¸ of the primary degree. Most likely, in the near future we will see a continuation of the depreciation of stocks in the final intermediate wave (5), which may end the primary impulse wave â’¶ near 92.78. At that level, wave (5) will be at 76.4% of previous impulse (3). After the end of the impulse wave â’¶, we expect the stock to grow in the primary correction â’·. An alternative scenario is possible, where the market has completed the formation of the primary wave â’¶. According to this markup, the wave â’¶ has the form of a leading diagonal (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5). In this case, in the last section of the chart, we see the price increase in a bullish correction â’·. It is assumed that the correction wave â’· will take the form of an intermediate double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y), where the actionary wave (W) is also a double zigzag W-X-Y of a lesser degree. It is possible that the correction â’· will be at 61.8% of wave â’¶. Thus, its completion is expected to reach the level of 154.93.

Summary: Dot Swoosh is a new Web3 platform and ecosystem that Nike is announcing today. Tuesday saw gains in Treasury yields across the board. Amazon (AMZN) is ready to fire around 10,000 employees as soon as this week. Nike announcing DOT Swoosh Nike bought the digital design company Rtfkt last year, and as a result, has emerged as a market leader in fashion NFTs. The sporting juggernaut is currently working on a stand-alone Web3 campaign intended to appeal to traditional brand followers rather than the early adopters who are well-versed in cryptocurrencies. Dot Swoosh is a new Web3 platform and ecosystem that Nike is announcing today. It is located at the domain Swoosh.nike. The initiative is a part of Nike Virtual Studios, which is run by former Snkrs app head and VP Ron Faris. According to Faris, Nike will house its virtual creations on Dot Swoosh, which debuts this Friday. Access is granted by an access code and registration is open as of right now.) In January, a debut digital collection will be released.According to Faris, who is in charge of Nike's blockchain, Web3, and metaverse strategies, the platform will allow users to buy, display, and exchange physical and digital goods as well as products they have created together. Nike has generated at least $185.3 million in income from Web3 products so far, which puts it ahead of rivals Adidas ($11 million) and Puma ($1.3 million), thanks to NFT sales from Rtfkt and with them the Web3-native company's pre-acquisition NFT collections. About half of Nike's total revenue came from Rtfkt's CloneX NFT avatar line, highlighting the significance of the acquisition for Nike's Web3 strategy thus far. A new platform from Nike Virtual Studios aims to onboard the #Web3 curious among Nike consumers, with a roadmap that borrows from @RTFKT’s playbook. https://t.co/RINZYZm0gI — Vogue Business (@voguebusiness) November 14, 2022 EU Stocks supported by increase in risk appetite Tuesday saw gains in Treasury yields across the board as investors re-entered booming equity markets following some profit-taking in the previous day. European equities and US futures also increased. After Xi Jinping and Joe Biden expressed a desire to strengthen US-China relations during their meeting on Monday before the G20 summit in Indonesia, and Beijing took action to relax some economic limitations, Asian markets saw significant gains. The market changes follow the US consumer prices index coming in below economists' expectations last week, which boosted US equities markets (the S&P 500 gained 5.5% on Thursday) and depressed the dollar. The Federal Reserve is under less pressure to raise interest rates by 0.75 percentage points for the fifth time in a row when it meets in December as a result of October's inflation figures. However, other analysts think that investors have become overly enthusiastic. In the lack of new economic information, Mike Zigmont, head of trading and research at Harvest Volatility Management, claimed that the argument over whether the most recent increase in stock prices marks the beginning of a true bull run or merely a bear market rebound is essentially pointless. European stocks rise as appetite for risk sparks rallies across markets https://t.co/3UVwb9E1va — Financial Times (@FT) November 15, 2022 AMAZON to layoff 1% of its global workforce According to unnamed persons familiar with the situation, The New York Times claimed on Monday that Amazon (AMZN) is ready to fire around 10,000 employees as soon as this week. The layoffs occur as the tech sector struggles to remain competitive in the face of a sluggish economy, rising interest rates, and persistent inflation. This month, thousands of employees were also let off by Twitter and Facebook's parent company Meta. The Times reports that the layoffs will have an effect on Amazon's Alexa business as well as the company's retail and human resources businesses. The Alexa group at Amazon, which creates the Echo hardware and related software, suffers annual losses of up to $5 billion, according to The Wall Street Journal, which cited internal papers it had examined. Amazon has joined the growing list of IT firms that have either frozen hiring or implemented layoffs. The 10,000 positions represent about 1% of Amazon's 1.5 million global employees. According to The Times, the precise number of anticipated layoffs may alter before they are officially revealed. On Nov. 3, Amazon declared a hiring moratorium. Amazon to lay off 10,000 workers as soon as this week: New York Times https://t.co/apeIJsSSV1 by @DanielHowley $AMZN — Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) November 15, 2022 Sources: finance.yahoo.com, voguebusiness.com, ft.com, twitter.com

The internal structure of AMZN hints at the development of a corrective trend. It is assumed that a zigzag is formed, which consists of sub-waves a-b-c of the cycle degree. Perhaps at the end of last year, the market completed the formation of the first major wave a, it is a bullish 5-wave impulse. After the end of the impulse growth, the price began to decline, which may indicate the beginning of the construction of a bearish correction b. It may take the form of a zigzag â’¶-â’·-â’¸ of the primary degree. Most likely, in the near future we will see a continuation of the depreciation of stocks in the final intermediate wave (5) of the leading diagonal â’¶ to 77.07. At that level, wave (5) will be at 100% of previous impulse (3). After the end of the wave â’¶, we expect the growth of stocks in the primary correction â’·. Let's consider the second option, when the market has completed the formation of the primary wave â’¶, where, as in the first option, it has the form of a leading diagonal (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5). In this case, in the last section of the chart, we see a price increase within the sideways correction â’·. It is assumed that the correction wave â’· will take the form of an intermediate double three (W)-(X)-(Y), where the actionary wave (W) is also a double zigzag W-X-Y of a lesser degree. Perhaps the second intervening wave (X) has also come to an end, so an upward movement in the final wave (Y) to a maximum of 146.85 is expected in the near future.

Equities extend the downside recovery, following the failure to clear an important year-to-date resistance last week, which was the S&P500's year-to-date descending channel top at around the 4080 level. The index cleared the first bearish target, at 3956 level, the minor 23.6% retracement on the latest rebound and tested its 100-DMA to the downside, but managed to close above that level. Nasdaq slumped 2%, with Apple retreating more than 2.50% while Amazon lost 3% as investors dumped technology stocks faster than the others.   And even oil giants joined the selloff this week. Exxon lost more than 2.50% both on Monday and on Tuesday, as the latest drop in oil prices didn't help improve the mood.   The American crude lost more than 7% since the weekly open. If Monday's fall was mostly driven by a global market selloff, yesterday's selloff was definitely due to the EIA revising its oil production forecast higher for next year, after having cut this prediction for the past five months.   Read next: Presumably, stronger-than-expected ISM affected stocks. Aussie gained from the RBA decision | FXMAG.COM So, now, the EIA expects the US to pump around 12.34 mio barrels per day in 2023, approaching the historical high production of 2019.   Yesterday's selloff sent the barrel of Brent crude below the $80 mark for the first time since the very beginning of this year, and pulled the barrel of American crude a couple of cents below the late November dip, at around $73.40. And even the API data – which showed a 6.4-mio-barrel drop in US oil inventories couldn't bring the oil bulls in. The more official EIA data is due today. Trend and momentum indicators hint that the recession fears could well push the barrel of oil toward the $70pb despite falling oil reserves in the US.     Russian oil price cap is a warning for OPEC  What's good about the falling oil prices is that the Russian oil cap becomes somehow meaningless as prices fall, though the Europeans said to revise the cap every two months. For now, there is not much to worry apart from a couple of vessels carrying Russian oil that are stuck near Turkey as Turks ask insurance apparently to let them sail away.   But here is the thing. The fact that the G7, the EU and Australia agreed to cap the price of Russian oil gave a strong message to the rest of the oil producers: they could do the same with OPEC.  So far, US President Joe Biden reassured OPEC that this is not a 'buyers' league' and that the decisions apply only to Russia. But we can't stop thinking that if OPEC goes severely against the US' will to stop messing around with oil prices, there is no reason we won't see a buyers' league emerge from the darkness.

Warner Bros. Discovery Inc continues to cut costs and expects restructuring costs to increase by up to $1 billion than anticipated less than two months ago. Amazon sued for breach of contract. Once again, Elon Musk decided to sell Tesla shares, leaving himself 13.4%. Amazon is sued The Vietnamese warehouse equipment maker says in a lawsuit filed in New York on Tuesday that it has dramatically expanded its operations in eight years to accommodate Amazon's rapid growth. This included setting up more manufacturing facilities, more than doubling the workforce, and cutting ties with other large retail clients such as IKEA, Columbia Sportswear Co. and Decathlon S.A. Gilimex said Amazon scaled up its purchases in 2020 and 2021, when e-commerce sales were booming as the pandemic shifted consumer behavior, then sharply pulled back orders this year as online sales growth slowed. Gilimex said the partnership was built on "trust" and Gilimex relied on the accuracy of Amazon's forecasts to make appropriate investments to meet demand, including purchasing materials and arranging capacity and manpower to meet the US company's needs. The lawsuit, which alleges breach of contract, breach of fiduciary duty, unfair trade practices and negligent misrepresentation, was filed in the New York State Supreme Court. The lawsuit said the change resulted in "immediate and virtually complete destruction of Gilimex's business." Gilimex seeks approximately $280 million in damages to recover costs. Read next: From the fundamental point of view, these facts may become a game changer, sending the EUR/USD pair to the parity level | FXMAG.COM Warner Bros. Discovery Inc and cost problems Warner Bros. Discovery Inc, whose holding companies include film and television studios, CNN and HBO, and Discovery channels such as Food Network and HGTV, said in a statement Wednesday that it expects to incur pre-tax restructuring costs of as much as $5.3 billion by 2024. In October, it said it anticipated as much as $4.3 billion in restructuring fees. Since the conclusion of the Discovery and WarnerMedia merger earlier this year, there have been significant layoffs, including executives at the major units. Many high-profile projects and programs have also been killed or cancelled. Warner Bros. Discovery said it still expects restructuring initiatives to be completed by the end of 2024. Last month, the company raised its cost synergy target to $3.5 billion from $3 billion. It also has debt of about $50 billion. The company's shares fell 1.1% in Wednesday's after-hours trading. Musk holds 13.4% of Tesla shares Musk sold nearly 22 million Tesla shares in the three days ending December 14. This week's sale means Tesla's CEO has sold more than $39 billion worth of Tesla shares since the company's shares peaked in November 2021. Tesla, still the world's most valued carmaker by value. Tesla's CEO previously sold the company's shares in April, August and November this year, linking the last two batches of sales to Twitter. This month's sale leaves Musk with about 13.4% of Tesla, meaning he remains by far the company's largest shareholder. Still, the sale of shares could weaken his control over Tesla. It wasn't clear what prompted Musk to sell the extra Tesla shares. Mr Musk's focus on Twitter has irked some Tesla investors as the company tracks its worst annual stock price performance ever. Read next: Given the peculiarities of the US labor market and the high labor mobility, the acceptable unemployment rate is considered to be 5.0%| FXMAG.COM Tesla shares closed up 2.58% on Wednesday at $156.80, their lowest level in more than two years. The company's stock price drop of around 55% in 2022 overshadowed that of the Nasdaq Composite, which has fallen around 29% since the beginning of the year. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com

It has been quite a quiet start to the week with many major markets still closed for Xmas holiday, but no one saw Santa coming this year, have you? Japan, Azazon, USD On the contrary, the Bank of Japan led drama across the global financial markets reminded that the year will certainly not end on a positive footage, Amazon became the first US megacap to lose more than a trillion USD in market cap, and the expectations for the S&P500 are very much mixed… …even though the last trading week of the year is expected to be marked by a ‘Santa rally’. US PCE data, China A few encouraging news could, indeed, give a minor boost to equity markets, among them the softer US PCE data, and the Chinese reopening news despite hundreds of millions of new Covid cases that threaten a smooth coming back. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:31 Kuroda bangs the last nail on Santa’s coffin 4:16 US inflation gives further easing signs 5:19 But stock investors may not get too excited… 6:17 Amazon lost $1 trillion market cap 8:28 Expect thin trading before year-end 8:56 Hectic China reopening could still boost crude oil Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #hawkish #BoJ #ECB #Fed #USD #EUR #GBP #JPY #Amazon #crudeoil #China #Covid #reopening #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

DAILY MARKET NEWSLETTER December 29, 2022               Pre-Market Session News Sentiment Technical Views           EUR/USD   Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)   Brent (ICE)                 Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.                     Price Movement Analyst Views Target Pivot   Dax (Eurex) 13,937.00 -52.00 (-0.37%) Read the analysis 13,900.00 13,990.00     FTSE 100 (ICE Europe) 0.00 0.00 (0.00%) Read the analysis 7,500.00 7,450.00     S&P 500 (CME) 3,810.00 +2.50 (+0.07%) Read the analysis 3,788.00 3,837.00     Nasdaq 100 (CME) 10,796.50 +23.75 (+0.22%) Read the analysis 10,700.00 10,890.00     Dow Jones (CME) 33,021.00 -25.00 (-0.08%) Read the analysis 32,920.00 33,240.00     Crude Oil (WTI) 78.47 -0.49 (-0.62%) Read the analysis 79.10 77.90     Gold 1,808.20 +3.845 (+0.21%) Read the analysis 1,814.00 1,801.00                     MARKET WRAP           Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, CommoditiesOn Wednesday, U.S. stocks remained under pressure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 365 points (-1.10%) to 32,875, the S&P 500 fell 46 points (-1.20%) to 3,783, and the Nasdaq 100 was down 143 points (-1.32%) to 10,679.Technology hardware & equipment (-2.67%), energy (-2.22%), and consumer durables & apparel (-2.17%) sectors lost the most.Apple (AAPL) slid 3.07% on concerns that a potential recession would impact demand for the company's products. Amazon.com (AMZN) fell 1.47%.Southwest Airlines (LUV) declined 5.16% following its mass flight cancellations and delays due to winter storms in the U.S.MicroStrategy (MSTR), a big bitcoin-holding listed-company, sank 6.53% as the company sold some of its Bitcoins for the first time ever.From a technical point of view, Chevron (CVX), IBM (IBM), and Visa (V) crossed under their 50-day moving average.Regarding U.S. economic data, the number of pending home sales fell for a sixth consecutive month in November, declining 4.0% on month (vs -0.9% expected).The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield advanced 4.4 basis points to 3.885%.European stocks closed mixed. The DAX 40 fell 0.50%, the CAC 40 declined 0.61%, while the FTSE 100 rose 0.32%.U.S. WTI crude futures dropped $0.90 to $78.67 a barrel.Gold price was down $9 to $1,804 an ounce.Market Wrap: ForexThe U.S. dollar index climbed to 104.52.EUR/USD fell 29 pips to 1.0611.USD/JPY jumped 96 pips to 134.45. The Bank of Japan issued a summary of opinions from its latest policy meeting, showing that policymakers backed a continuation of ultra-accommodative policy. GBP/USD declined 7 pips to 1.2018.AUD/USD added 6 pips to 0.6738.USD/CHF edged up 4 pips to 0.9294, and USD/CAD gained 85 pips to 1.3608.Bitcoin traded further lower to $16,490.Morning TradingIn Asian trading hours, USD/JPY retreated to 133.72.Meanwhile, EUR/USD edged up to 1.0625 and GBP/USD climbed to 1.2035.Gold rebounded to $1,807.Bitcoin remained subdued at $16,523.Expected TodayThe eurozone's November M3 money supply is expected to grow 4.8% on year.In the U.S., weekly initial jobless claims are estimated at 220,000.           UK MARKET NEWS           Basic Resources, chemicals and insurance shares gained most in London on Friday.From a relative strength vs FTSE 100 point of view, Aviva (+0.81% to 447.6p), Barclays (+0.72% to 158.88p) crossed above their 50-day moving average.           ECONOMIC CALENDAR           Time Event Forecast Importance   08:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Dec/24) 220k MEDIUM     08:30 Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Dec/24) 225k LOW     08:30 Continuing Jobless Claims (Dec/17) 1.671M LOW     10:30 EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (Dec/23) -201Bcf LOW     11:00 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Dec/23) 520k MEDIUM     11:00 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Dec/23) -1.52M MEDIUM     11:00 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change (Dec/23)   LOW     11:00 EIA Distillate Stocks Change (Dec/23) -2.05M LOW     11:00 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change (Dec/23)   LOW     11:00 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change (Dec/23)   LOW     11:00 EIA Gasoline Production Change (Dec/23)   LOW     11:00 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change (Dec/23)   LOW     11:00 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change (Dec/23)   LOW     11:30 8-Week Bill Auction   LOW     11:30 4-Week Bill Auction   LOW     13:00 7-Year Note Auction   LOW                                     NEWS SENTIMENT           Argo Group Ltd ARGO : LSE 11.00 GBp 0.00% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   AstraZeneca PLC AZN : LSE 11,250.00 GBp -0.50% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   BP PLC BP. : LSE 480.40 GBp +0.52% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Diageo PLC DGE : LSE 3,668.50 GBp +0.15% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Fresnillo PLC FRES : LSE 891.60 GBp +2.37% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Neutral       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   CVS Group PLC CVSG : LSE 1,985.00 GBp +1.12% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                           TECHNICAL VIEWS           EUR/USD Intraday: under pressure.   Pivot: 1.0645   Our preference: Short positions below 1.0645 with targets at 1.0605 & 1.0590 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 1.0645 look for further upside with 1.0660 & 1.0675 as targets.   Comment: As long as the resistance at 1.0645 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.0605 remains high.                     Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)‎ (H3)‎ Intraday: under pressure.   Pivot: 3823.00   Our preference: Short positions below 3823.00 with targets at 3785.00 & 3770.00 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 3823.00 look for further upside with 3842.00 & 3858.00 as targets.   Comment: The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%                     Brent (ICE)‎ (H3)‎ Intraday: the bias remains bullish.   Pivot: 83.00   Our preference: Long positions above 83.00 with targets at 84.10 & 84.80 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 83.00 look for further downside with 82.50 & 81.90 as targets.   Comment: The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.        

Stores are increasingly expanding their activities by creating online stores. The increase in interest in online shopping has contributed to this. Amazon remains the top leader, but Walmart is hot on Amazon's heels. There are many arguments for the introduction of digital money, mainly environmental protection. Work on CBDC is constantly progressing, and developing the right washing conditions is a key issue. In this article: Digital money Walmart’s ambitious new plans Digital money is getting closer and closer to common use Digital money is getting closer and closer to common use. Many countries are testing their CBDC pilot programs. The main problem with this type of money is the issue of regulation. During the pandemic, there has been growth in this area, with governments accelerating the digital delivery of key government services. Tax authorities are increasingly using e-filing and e-payment systems and digital technologies to improve compliance management, helping to reduce tax evasion and increase revenue mobilisation. Digital technologies also improve the efficiency and effectiveness of public finance management systems and processes, including budget preparation and execution, cash and debt management, e-procurement, financial reporting and auditing, and social program administration. Digital forms of money are diverse and evolving rapidly. The opportunities are vast, but the challenges facing policy makers are also stark, complex and widespread. The most far-reaching implications concern the stability of the international monetary system. Digital money needs to be designed and regulated in such a way that countries reap its potential benefits, including greater financial integration and more efficient cross-border payments. As more countries adopt new forms of digital money, the IMF has designed its policy advice to help countries and create a more stable international monetary system. Read the 2022 #IMFAnnualReport https://t.co/1oApvPc1ek pic.twitter.com/HTGpYxEzw6 — IMF (@IMFNews) January 1, 2023 Read next: The First Inflation Data In The New Year From Europe May Show A Decline| FXMAG.COM Walmart’s ambitious new plans Online shopping has increased in recent years. Around the world, online shopping was mostly associated with Amazon. There is no doubt that Amazon is a leader in this industry. For retailers, it may be a major problem, but for Amazon's competitors, they are also constantly evolving. Mainly due to the pandemic, stores such as Walmart took advantage of the situation to develop their online business. The global health crisis has also fueled Walmart's sense of urgency to better compete with Amazon. Walmart is leveraging two key strengths to drive its e-commerce business: approximately 4,700 stores in the United States and its dominance in the grocery industry. Ninety percent of Americans live within 10 miles of a Walmart store. Walmart is using its stores as launch pads for delivery drones and drop-off points for direct deliveries to refrigerators, and will soon begin packing and shipping third-party retailers' goods from stores. Such actions can bring Walart many benefits and even make him a leader. When it comes to e-commerce, Amazon is the clear leader, but Walmart’s ambitious new plans and leadership are trying to catch up. Watch the video to learn more. https://t.co/0Y1nS89IOK pic.twitter.com/qLwFcrkB3U — CNBC (@CNBC) January 2, 2023

Twitter has been struggling with new problems since the beginning of the year. This time he was accused of not paying the rent. Other tech companies are also having problems. 2022 was not the best year for Meta or Mircrosoft stocks. Twitter has another problem While Elon Musk has been working to cut costs on Twitter since he took over the company in October. More problems arise. Recently there has been an inflromation that the social platform will experience technical difficulties in using the computer version. Today there was information about financial problems. The owner, Columbia Reit-650 California LLC, says the social media company failed to pay $136,260 in owed rent for office space at 650 California St. The lawsuit alleging breach of contract was filed in the California Supreme Court in San Francisco. Other companies, including a software provider and a transportation company, have also sued Twitter in recent weeks in an effort to recover overdue payments. Can this prove that under the leadership of a businessman, Twitter is struggling with serious financial problems. What's more, according to Twitter data, hasn't booked an annual profit since 2019. Even though the new year has brought some shocking news about Twitter, its shares are above 50 and thus are the highest. Read next: Walmart Has Ambitions To Become An E-Commerce Leader| FXMAG.COM It was a tough time for tech stocks The future outlook is an important aspect when buying stocks, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. For most of the past decade, investors have focused on high-growth tech stocks whose strong year-over-year returns have convinced them they have no choice but to grow. Soaring stocks like Facebook's parent company Meta Platforms Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Netflix Inc. and owner of Google Alphabet Inc. caused the major indices to hit dozens of new highs. The trade has become so popular that it has its own acronym: FAANG. Meta dropped 64% in 2022; Netflix dropped 51%; the other three shares fell at least 27%. Together, FAANG shares have lost more than $3 trillion in market value, helping to pull the wider stock market down with it. As consumers and businesses tighten their belts to prepare for a potential recession, tech companies that seemed immune to the economic woes of the pandemic have seen their revenues plummet. Companies like Microsoft reported their worst quarterly results in years. Amazon and Meta announced layoffs. When interest rates were close to zero, investors were more willing to pay for growth stocks and risky assets in search of higher returns. However, with the Fed raising interest rates at the fastest pace since the 1980s, the market environment began to favor investments, which now generate cash for the holder. Even after tech stocks ran out last year, the sector still looks expensive compared to the wider market. Although the tech stock market has not been positive lately, MSFT prices have kept their prices above 200. The second half of last year was quite weak for this company's stock and mostly in a downtrend, but prices remained mostly above 225. MSFT share price Meta shares also had their worst period recently, with the price mostly staying around 120. Meta share price Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com

  Summary:  Equity markets managed to keep an even keel yesterday, with a lack of direction in US equity markets continuing well into its third week. Late yesterday, the minutes from the last FOMC meeting offered the latest pushback against market expectations for rate cuts as soon as year-end, while gold and especially the JPY eased back lower from their recent strength on treasury yields halting their slide. Tomorrow’s US jobs report for December offers the next test for global markets.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) The US equity market once again chopped back and forth yesterday as the action has been bottled up in a range in the S&P 500 for nearly three weeks. The market may be waiting for the next batch of US data and the impact on treasury yields for choosing a direction, with tomorrow’s batch of data the next important hurdle for markets. The technical focus for S&P 500 traders is the range low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 3,780 for the March futures contract. For Nasdaq 100 trader, the cycle low near 10, 750 and the nominal intraday lows from last October a bit lower still are the key focus. Ironically, strong US economy data may be the most negative for equity markets in the short run if yields jump. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HIF3) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index climbed more than 1% and CSI300 surged nearly 2% as China continue to roll out additional reopening measures and supports to the economy. On Thursday, China announced the much-anticipated gradual reopening of the border between Hong Kong and the mainland starting from January 8, 2023. Internet platform giants Alibaba (09988:xhkg) and Meituan (03690:xhkg), China restaurant chain Haidilao (06862:xhg), beer brewers China Resources Beer (00291:xhkg) and Budweiser (01876:xhkg) were among the top gainers within the Hang Seng Index. In A-shares, baijiu (Chinese white liquor) surged in anticipation of rebound in consumption. Electric equipment, household electronic appliances, and logistics stocks also outperformed. FX: JPY rally reversed, USDCNH testing key levels The US dollar found a modicum of support yesterday as treasury yields stabilized and as the Fed delivered the expected message in its latest set of meeting minutes – a pushback against market expectations for the Fed to cut rates as soon as this year. The next important step for the USD will be on tomorrow’s December jobs report and next Thursday’s December CPI release. USDJPY bounced well above 132.00 after its recent test below 130.00 on signs that the yen’s recent surge may need more support from new developments (a larger drop in global yields in particular) after resetting from 150.00+ in USDJPY terms. The Chinese yuan continued its resurgence on hopes for a boost to Chinese growth on the other side of the current Covid trauma, with USDCNH testing its 200-day moving average near 6.87 for the first time since April. Crude oil (CLG3 & LCOH3) Crude oil found a bid on Wednesday following a two-day tumble of more than 9% tumble on China demand and global growth worries. The bounce has so far primarily been driven by short covering while also signalling an end to selling from funds who bought the market aggressively ahead of yearend. For now, a surge in Covid-19 cases across China is clouding the near-term demand outlook, overshadowing optimism and delaying the timing of when commodity consumption in the world’s top importer will eventually rebound. The API reported a 3.3-million-barrel increase in US crude stocks with gasoline stocks also rising while distillates dropped. The EIA will release its weekly report later today. Gold (XAUUSD) sees increased two-way action after hitting fresh six-month high Gold’s run of gains extended to a fourth day on Wednesday but after touching $1865 some two-way actions emerged potentially signalling traders have started to book profit. Gold, silver and platinum have been favoured by traders during the first days of trading, with momentum from last year being carried over. Driven by recession and stock market valuation risks, an eventual peak in central bank rates combined with the prospect of a weaker dollar and inflation not returning to the expected sub-3% level by yearend. It is worth remembering that traders' conviction at the beginning of a new year always tends to be low for fear of catching the wrong move. At the same time, however, the fear of missing out can also drive a rapid build-up in positioning which subsequently can be left exposed should a change in direction occur. Focus on Friday’s US job report with resistance at $1865 & $1878 while the current strong uptrend may not be challenged unless the price breaks below $1800 Europe’s gas price (TTFMc1) slump continues Europe’s gas prices have fallen by more than 50% during the past month and on Wednesday the Dutch TTF futures contract closed at €65/MWH ($20/MMBtu), the lowest since October 2021. The slump has been driven by a combination of mild weather and at times strong production from renewables as well as reduced industrial consumption resulting in an unusual seasonal increase in inventories. Gas held in storage across Europe is currently 164 TWh above the five-year average and close to a full month of peak winter withdrawals. With LNG imports still strong and demand down by more than 10% the continent has now ended up in a situation, unthinkable just a couple of few months ago, where prices need to stay low in order to divert LNG shipments away from Europe in order not to overwhelm storage facilities. Wheat (ZWc1) tumbles on ample Black Sea supply. The Chicago wheat contract has lost more than 5% during the first trading days to trade near a one-month low. Forced lower by an abundance of low-price wheat from Russia and Ukraine providing stiff competition to U.S. exporters where production has been hit by drought, and recently, by severe cold. Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, look set to double its exports to a record 21.3 million tons for the first half of 2023. This following a record grain crop of 151.0 million tons last year, including 102.7 million tons of wheat. In addition to strong Russian shipments, European Union soft-wheat exports are running about 6% higher than a year earlier, and Australia’s top shipper loaded a monthly record 2.18 million tons of grain in December. Yields on US Treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) stabilized after their steep fall to start the year US Treasury yields arrested their descent yesterday after the 10-year benchmark hit 3.66%, rising a few basis points. At the short end of the curve, yield pulled back slightly higher as well, perhaps lifted at the margin by a strong JOLTS survey for November and the ISM Manufacturing survey showing a stronger employment sub-index. The price action was little affected by the FOMC minutes release, which saw the Fed continuing its pushback against market expectations for easing as soon as year-end. Tomorrow’s US data, including the December jobs report and ISM Services Index, offer the next test for the treasury market. Read next: The EUR/USD Pair Is Trading Above 1.06 Again, The USD/JPY Pair Is Close To Level Of 131| FXMAG.COM What is going on? France’s inflation is cooling down BUT… Inflation is cooling down in several eurozone countries. France is the last example. In December, the EU-harmonized CPI rose 6.7 % year-over-year versus expected 7.3 %. On a monthly basis, inflation decreased 0.1 % versus expected +0.4 %. This is positive, of course. But it will likely not be sufficient for monetary policy to shift out of tightening mode just yet. There is a high risk that inflation will increase again in Spring/Summer this year due to higher energy prices. This could be fueled by a deficit in the oil market due to OPEC+ cuts and EU ban on Russian oil and difficulties filling gas inventories for next year in the EU. Therefore, it is too early to believe the peak in inflation is effectively behind us in the eurozone. The FOMC minutes sent out mixed messages FOMC participants worried that the downshift from a 75bp hike to a 50-hike would be interpreted by the market as the signal of a pivot and warned that “an unwarranted easing in financial conditions, especially if driven by a misperception by the public of the committee’s reaction function, would complicate the committee’s effort to restore price stability”. Nonetheless, the minutes showed that “many” participants argued for balancing two risks: the risk “insufficiently restrictive monetary policy could cause inflation to remain above the Committee’s target for longer than anticipated” and the other risk of “the lagged cumulative effect of policy tightening could end up being more restrictive than is necessary to bring down inflation to 2 percent and lead to an unnecessary reduction in economic activity”. That points to a data-dependent risk management approach going forward. Separately, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said in an article that he saw rate hikes “at least at the next few meetings”, leading to a terminal rate of 5.25-5.50%. UK Mortgage Approvals plunged in November A clear sign that higher interest rates are impacting the UK housing market, approvals plunged to 46.1k in November, a stunning drop from 59k in October and for wider perspective, a sign of very weak activity relative to the average of well over 60k approvals per month in the years before the pandemic outbreak. Amazon to lay off over 18k employees This was more than previously expected as the company over-expanded its warehouse and logistics infrastructure after the wild increase in demand from pandemic-era stimulus. Shares rose some 1.7% after hours yesterday. US House of Representatives still has no speaker The narrow Republican majority in the House after the mid-term elections last November means that nearly all Republicans must agree on a candidate, with a small cabal of Trumpist-leaning Republicans continuing to block the candidacy of Keven McCarthy, who failed three more votes yesterday in his effort to become the next Speaker of the House. This issue could gain considerable importance for the debt ceiling issue in the US if a more confrontational figure acceptable to the GOP extremists is eventually found. What are we watching next? US data today and tomorrow Today we will get the latest weekly US jobless claims number as this data series has yet to show material weakening in the US labour market, market bets of Fed cuts by year-end notwithstanding. The December ADP Private Payrolls data is also up today, with that data series showing a rather persistent decline in payrolls growth since Q2 of last year. It is expected at +150k after +127k in November. Tomorrow’s calendar is important as the Fed has clearly expressed the most uncertainty on the inflationary pressures from the employment-intensive services side of the economy. This could make the market sensitive to strong surprises in the Nonfarm payrolls change number (expected around +200k, with considerable recent attention on the divergence in this survey relative to the far weaker household survey used to calculate the overall unemployment rate) and average hourly earnings. Ninety minutes after the jobs data, we’ll have a look at the December ISM Services survey after November saw a surprising improvement in the survey to 56.5 after the cycle low of 54.4 in October. Earnings to watch The earnings calendar is light in the first week of the new year, but in a couple of weeks the first Q4 earnings releases will begin to be released. The Q4 earnings season will continue its focus on margin pressures related to input costs on employees and raw materials including energy. Today’s earnings focus is Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) and Conagra Brands, with WBA expected to -3% revenue growth y/y for the quarter that ended on 30 November adding to the series of quarters with negative revenue growth. Conagra Brands is expected to deliver 7% revenue growth y/y for the quarter that ended on 30 November as the manufacturer of packaged foods is able to pass on inflation to its customers. Today: Walgreens Boots Alliance, Conagra Brands, Lamb Weston, Constellation Brands, RPM International Friday: Naturgy Energy Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Poland Dec. Flash CPI 0930 – UK Final Dec. Services PMI 1000 – Eurozone Nov. PPI 1000 – Italy Dec. CPI 1230 – US Dec. Challenger Job Cuts 1230 – US Fed’s Harker (2023 FOMC voter) to speak 1315 – US Dec. ADP Private Payrolls change 1330 – Canada Nov. International Merchandise Trade 1330 – US Nov. Trade Balance 1330 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 1400 – Poland National Bank Governor Glapinski press conference 1530 – EIA Natural Gas Storage Change 1600 – EIA Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report 1830 – US Fed’s Bullard (non-voter) to speak 2330 – Japan Nov. Labor Cash Earnings Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – January 5, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

The remaining cuts in Amazon will bring the total number of redundancies to over 18,000 and will be implemented in the coming weeks. Samsung also has problems and suffers from a lack of demand for its products. Samsung Macroeconomic challenges hit Samsung hard last year as companies and consumers cut back on electronics spending after a shopping boom in the early stages of the pandemic. Demand for tech will remain weak as high inflation, rising interest rates and a strong dollar weigh on sales. This led to a sharp decline in demand for goods from Samsung, the world's largest manufacturer of smartphones, televisions and semiconductors. The drop in demand is a constant challenge for Smanung. According to analysts surveyed by data provider FactSet, Samsung's operating profit for the quarter ended December 31 was projected to be almost half as much as a year earlier. Currently, Samsung leads the global smartphone market in terms of total shipments, but Apple dominates the premium smartphone market. In recent years, Samsung has battled rival Apple to defend its share of the premium smartphone market, where most of the industry's profits are generated. Apple has created an exclusive ecosystem of connected products and services that helps attract new consumers and increase their retention. Samsung plans to overcome current market challenges by strengthening the integration of connected devices and related software, an area where it has previously lagged behind rivals such as Apple Inc. For now, Samsung smartphone users can set the washing machine to complete its cycle when they get home and turn on music on the Samsung TV, and the stereo speakers will automatically turn on to the beat of the music. The user can also scan the barcode on a package of frozen hot dogs with a smartphone, and Samsung's microwave oven will heat the product according to the instructions. Samsung has created a new umbrella team made up of employees from each product unit to work to improve the user experience across multiple devices, said Han Jong-hee, vice president and general manager of the South Korean tech company. The team office includes rooms imitating real houses and other spaces where connected devices are tested and developed in many scenarios. Since October 2021, Samung shares have skyrocketed significantly. After peaking at 88,800, it declined. The year 2022 was in a downward trend. This year, the company's shares started at 55,500 and began to grow. Currently, Samsung shares are trading at 58,200. Read next: How Dream Sports Built Its Value, High Inflation And Its Impact On The Hedge Fund| FXMAG.COM Amazon The Seattle-based company said in November it was starting layoffs, with the cuts focused on its appliance, recruitment and retail business. More than 18,000 workers will be affected, the biggest cut recorded last year at a major tech company as the industry recoils amid economic uncertainty. The layoffs are concentrated within the company's corporate ranks and account for about 5% of that portion of its workforce and 1.2% of its 1.5 million employees as of September. Amazon was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Covid-19 pandemic as customers flocked to shop online. The rush into Amazon's various businesses, from e-commerce to groceries and cloud computing, has accelerated the company's years of growth. To keep up with demand, Amazon doubled its logistics network and added hundreds of thousands of employees. When demand began to wane and customers returned to in-store shopping, Amazon initiated an extensive cost-cutting review to cut back on units that were unprofitable. In the spring and summer, the company made targeted cuts to lower costs by closing physical stores and business units such as Amazon Care. Amazon later announced a company-wide hiring freeze before opting to lay off employees. Many tech companies cut jobs as the economy worsened. Last time, ending 2022, Amazon shares were below 90. They ended the year at 84.18, and are now slightly up to 87.19. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com

Summary:  Today, we look at the market continuing to stumble around in the range, with little conviction emerging so far this year. Will this mean a trigger-happy reaction to incoming data? Elsewhere, we look at the gold rally fading, crude oil ripping lower and the Japanese yen mean reverting to weakness after its spectacular two-month rally, a likely sign of near-term exhaustion for that move. We also discuss Amazon chopping more jobs than expected, the still tight US labor market and much more. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Read next: The Bank Of England Urgently Needs To Tame Stubbornly High Inflation| FXMAG.COM   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: Podcast: Market stumbling around, awaiting incoming data | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

It’s been a mixed day of trade in Europe and the US is poised to open marginally lower as traders take a step back following a lively start to the year. The Fed minutes may have put a slight dampener on things although I’m not entirely sure. The narrative from the central bank is very much in line with what we should expect. Policymakers are desperately trying to convince markets how serious they are about defeating inflation, to the point that investors are seemingly paying less attention. I can understand the Fed’s caution given the erratic nature of the data and its own credibility issue having turned up casually late to the party. The risk now is that it overcompensates during the exit from tightening and pushes the economy into a deeper downturn than necessary. This is why we may well see it maintain the hawkish position in the near term but ultimately not follow through and instead quickly pivot, perhaps later in the quarter. That will all depend on the data and the jobs report last month was not what the central bank wanted to see. It will be hoping for something more modest on Friday, with a particular focus falling on wages which surprised substantially to the upside in November. The ADP report wasn’t a promising precursor but then, it’s rarely a reliable one either. Amazon and Salesforce continue tech layoffs Tech firms have often been the outlier in markets in recent years and now they are for all the wrong reasons. While most companies have been reluctant to lay off staff, having been burned in the aftermath of the pandemic by a surprisingly tight labour market, tech firms have been quick to pull the trigger and in emphatic fashion. There is no crystal ball that the firms’ bosses have access to that others have not; rather it’s a reflection of the intense hiring spree they went on in recent years as business boomed and stock prices soared. The economic cycle has turned rapidly, leaving those companies over-staffed and while that would ideally not result in mass lay-offs, it was always likely to. While other sectors may also gradually start laying off staff in response to the economic downturn, I don’t expect it will be on the same scale, not unless the outlook worsens considerably. Pre-data nerves? Bitcoin isn’t offering much in terms of excitement today, down marginally and with a relatively tight trading range. Whether that’s a little pre-jobs report apprehension or something more defensive amid a welcome quiet period for crypto isn’t clear but we’ll find out soon enough. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Tech leading the way - MarketPulseMarketPulse

AMZN: Primary Wave â’¶ Nears Completion Level The current AMZN structure suggests a corrective trend. It is assumed that a zigzag is formed, which consists of cycle sub-waves a-b-c. After the end of the impulse growth of wave a, the price began to decline, which may indicate the beginning of a bearish correction b. It may take the form of a primary zigzag â’¶-â’·-â’¸. In the near future, we can expect the continuation of the depreciation of shares in the final intermediate wave (5) of the leading diagonal â’¶ to 60.68. At that level, wave (5) will be at 123.6% of previous impulse (3). After the end of the wave â’¶, the growth of shares in the primary correction â’· is possible. Alternatively, the leading diagonal â’¶ is fully completed. In this case, in the last section of the chart, we see a price increase in a sideways correction. Read next: Damage to the crypto industry increased by almost a half in 2022 | FXMAG.COM It is assumed that the correction wave â’· will take the form of an intermediate double three (W)-(X)-(Y). Perhaps the second intervening wave (X) has come to an end, so an upward movement in the final wave (Y) to a maximum of 146.85 is expected in the near future.

There was good, and less good news for investors on the wire yesterday.   The latest PPI data showed that the producer price inflation in the US fell way faster than expected. The expectation was a slowdown in factory gate inflation from 7.3% to 6.8%. And the data printed a sexy 6.2% for December – which meant a 0.5% retreat instead of a 0.1% decline. Core PPI also slowed. That's the good news.   The bad news is the US retail sales fell 1.1% in December – marking the biggest monthly drop of last year.   On the jobs front, Microsoft said that it will cut 10'000 jobs while Amazon started cutting jobs in the context of 18'000 job cuts announced a couple of weeks earlier. Exactly what the Fed wants.  The bad news would normally be good news for the stocks, if the Federal Reserve (Fed) members weren't there to spoil the dovish Fed expectations by saying that the US rates should go higher. Loretta Mester said more hikes are needed, and James Bullard reminded that the rates would have to stay 'on the tighter side this year' to help the Fed reach its 2% inflation goal.  S&P500 is an easy short at the current levels  The S&P500 didn't like the mix of slowing economic data, and still a hawkish Fed, and dived more than 1.50% yesterday.   And traders didn't hesitate much sending the index below the 200-DMA, and below the bearish trend building since the start of 2022, given that there is nothing encouraging for stock investors out there, other than the softening Fed expectations – which don't help filling the company's coffers.  Stock/bond divergence is happening!  The dovish expectations are, however, feeding well into the bond markets: the US 2-year yield is diving toward the 4% mark, while the 10-year yield hit 3.30%, the lowest level since September.   This means that the positive divergence in the sovereign space, compared with the stocks, is happening. Investors return to US sovereign bonds on expectation that the Fed would soften its policy due to recession jitters, while stock markets don't benefit from the expectation of softer financial conditions, as slowing economic activity is bad for profits.   And speaking of profits, Procter & Gamble and Netflix are due to release their Q4 earnings today!   Crude oil swings between gains and losses  US crude advanced past the $82 mark on Chinese reopening optimism and IEA predicting that the oil demand will hit a record in 2023, before falling back below the $80 on recession pessimism, and the news that the US crude inventories jumped by 7.6 million barrels last week, while the expectation was a drop in inventories.   The more official EIA data is due today, and the expectation of a 2.1 million barrel fall will likely disappoint the bulls. But I continue believing that the bulls will take the upper hand and carry the rally higher, though on a bumpy road.   Falling stocks + falling yields: a boon for gold diggers  Gold is bid above the $1900 level, and the positive pressure is supported by lower US yields – which decrease the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing yellow metal, and the softer US dollar.   The overbought conditions hint that we could see a minor downside correction in the short run, but levels between $1855 and 1900 are interesting for amassing gold.   There is potential for a further rise in gold, especially if the stocks fall, while the US yields continue easing. 

The week started slowly in Asia, as many markets were closed due to the Chinese New Year holiday. But those that were open benefited from the positive vibes from the US markets last Friday.  US equities rally, led by tech stocks  The S&P500 rallied 1.89% and flirted with the 200-DMA again, and closed the week a stone's throw from the ceiling of the 2022-to-date bearish trend.   Nasdaq did even better. The index rallied 2.86%, boosted by a well-deserved 8.50% rally from Netflix - which not only announced better-than-expected results in the Q4, but also a mouth-watering beat on the subscription growth end, with 7.7 mio new subscribers – a number that we thought we would hear only during a pandemic!   Google, on the other hand, jumped 5.72%, but for a less glamorous reason. The company said it will fire 6% of its workforce, which is around 12'000 jobs globally. Investors heard 'yes, that will clearly improve the cloud profitability!'   In total, Amazon, Microsoft and Google will be cutting 40'000 jobs.   Fed's quiet period  The quiet period for Federal Reserve (Fed) officials will help us digest what has been said over the past weeks.   In summary, we know that the Fed will further slow the size of its rate hikes in the coming months. $  But the fact that the Fed will raise by only 25bp next meeting doesn't mean that it won't continue hiking the rates. The rates will likely go above 5% in the Q1.  Focus on earnings  Microsoft, Johnson&Johnson, General Electric,Texas Instruments, Intel, Tesla Mastercard, Visa, Chevron and American Express are among companies that will go to the earnings confessional this week.  Big Tech earnings projections are down by about 5% since October.   Yet, expectations went sufficiently low that there is plenty of room for a positive surprise, as has been the case with Netflix.   FX & energy  The dollar kicked off the week under pressure. The EURUSD already hit the 1.09 mark early in the session, for the first time since last April, and is just a couple of pips away from the major 50% retracement on 2021-2022 selloff.   PMI data due tomorrow could confirm that the European economies took a softer hit thanks to mild start to the winter, and cheaper energy prices as a result of it.   And sufficiently strong PMI data, combined to the negative pressure in the US dollar into the Fed meeting, could help the EURUSD take a chance on the 1.10 resistance in the coming sessions.   In energy, crude oil posted its second straight week of gains on Friday, as the Chinese reopening story and prospects of higher global demand, and around 1 mbpd gap between supply and demand outweighed the recession fears.   The latest rebound in European nat gas prices, and the fact that we now have cold and snow in Europe could also tilt the balance further to the upside.   The barrel of American crude spent last week above the 50-DMA, now around $78pb, but couldn't clear the 100-DMA, which stands around $82pb.   The next target for the oil bulls is a move above the $82pb, for a potential extension of gains toward the $87/88 range.  

Summary:  Markets see red on concern FAANG’s will bite into markets, while there is worry the Fed won’t cut rates this year like the market expects, this has resulted in traders booking profits ahead of end of month. Commodities see short term pull back risks, with prices already down from fresh peaks; oil is down 5.6%, iron ore, copper and aluminium lose 2% ahead of the Fed meeting. While Australian shares hold steady, defying negative leads from Wall Street. In FX the US dollar picks up, pushing most currencies off course, with the Aussie dollar down 0.8%. What's the short vs long term narrative. Markets see red on concern FAANG’s will bite into markets, while there is worry the Fed won’t cut rates this year as markets has priced in Ahead of the Fed, ECB, and BOE meeting this week, for the first time in 2023, with the central banks potentially setting the course of interest rates for the year, risk management resulted in traders and investors booking profits ahead of end of month, which dragged the S&P500(US500.I) down 1.3% and the Nasdaq 100 (NAS100.I) 2.1%. The worry is that the market believes the Fed will only hike by 0.25% this week and 0.25% next month. Two and done, before cutting in July. There is also a risk the Fed says it has “more work to do”, which could send equities into a tailspin. Our view is given financial conditions have improved, and there is a 20% chance of a recession, the Fed can keep rates higher for longer. This is why we think there could be a short term potential correction, so potentially consider taking profits and buying downside optionality (puts), and consider tight stops. Secondly, the worry is that major tech company earnings will continue to slump, with average overall  earnings down 0.3% this quarter, across the 145 of the S&P500 companies. This is why profit taking in Facebook, Apple, Amazon and Google parent Alphabet is occurring ahead of them reporting results. Ultimately, we think their outlooks could set the tone for equities this year. Consider FAANG names like Facebook/Meta are up 61%, Apple is up 10%, Amazon is up 20% and Google’s parent Alphabet is up 12% from recent lows. Click here for more on US earnings. Read next: Major Currency Pairs Are Waiting For Central Banks Decisions, USD/JPY Pair Rose Above 130.00, | FXMAG.COM Commodity short term pull back risk – with prices already down from fresh peaks; oil down 5.6%, iron ore, copper and aluminium lose 2% ahead of the Fed   On Monday oil dropped 2.4%, while most commodities lost almost 1%, with the markets awaiting further evidence China is picking up demand - just as BHP, Rio and FMG alluded to in their quarterly results. It seems traders are torn between real demand physically rising, but awaiting the Fed’s decision this week, which could result in the US dollar spiking, that would ultimately pressure commodity prices down. So these factors raise the risk of a short-term correction across the board. That said, resources prices have been really strong up 17-70% on from their lows. In 2023 alone iron ore and copper are up 9%, Aluminium up 11%, spot gold up 5%. However, with commodity prices falling, it also raises the alarm that Aussie dollar and the Aussie share market could be at risk of a short term correction or consolidation as well. The key is to watch the US dollar index. However keep in mind, over the longer term, commodity prices are supported higher, underpinned by rising demand over course of the year, and lower physical supply. For more on commodities, see Saxo’s Commitments of Traders report, that highlights broad buying slowed in recent weeks. Australian shares hold steady, defying negative leads from Wall Street. Australian retail sales fall off a cliff, borrowing falls Australia’s share market, as measured by the ASX200(ASXSP200.I) opened 0.3% higher today at 7,501 defying the futures and US markets negative lead. Not only are Australia shares outperforming US shares this year, but also UK’s FTSE. However, given materials prices could be at risk of a shorter term pull-back, it’s worth pointing out the technical indicators suggest the ASX200’s uptrend is weakening. Our Technical Analyst suggests a possible short term correction down to 7,167 should not be ruled out. However, over the longer term, we think upside in the ASX200 is intact with mining companies to report some of the strongest earnings on record, and provide their strongest outlooks in several years amid China reopening. For stocks, ETFs and baskets to watch, click here.  In company news today, Gold Road Resources (GOR) reported a drop in production in the prior quarter and higher costs due to inflationary pressure, but guided for higher grades in 2023. This follows Oz Minerals (OZL) also guiding for higher costs, which paints a picture of what we can expect for full year earnings season next month. In economic news, retail sales fell 3.9% in December, shocking the market, which expected sales to only decline 0.3%. On top of that, borrowing data also missed expectations. Borrowing rose 0.3% in December, vs consensus expecting lending to rise 0.5%. Today’s data is telling as it shows interest rates have taken effect on the consumer, and supports the market thinking that the RBA could potentially pause and then cut rates later this year.   In FX the US dollar picks up, pushing most currencies off course The US dollar index has bounced up off it low and risen 0.5% and pressured most currencies lower, with the Aussie dollar (AUDUSD) falling 0.8% from its high, with the Aussie buying 0.7061 US. The Aussie against the US has fallen under its 200-day moving average, while there is caution the Fed’s Wednesday’s decision could cause the US dollar to rise. Should the Fed only hike by 0.25% as expected and guide for one more hike, or if the Fed mentions its hikes have been effective, or that it sees interest rates having a lag effect, then the AUDUSD could potentially rally back up. Supporting longer term upside in the Aussie is the rise of China’s economy and commodity buying. From a technical perspective, the bulls may like to hear the 50 day moving crossed above the 200, indicating the longer term rally could remain intact, despite the RSI indicating, there are currently more sellers right now, than buyers.  Stay tuned to Saxo's inspiration page for trading and investing ideas. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: Video: Will FAANGs results bite into markets and what if the Fed says it won’t cut rates this year, like the market thinks | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

'It is gratifying to see the disinflationary process now getting underway' said the Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jerome Powell at his press conference yesterday.  'Disinflation process is getting underway'.   That was the major - and the only take - of his speech yesterday, and sent the markets rallying. The US yields fell, the S&P500 reversed course and rallied more than 1% higher, while Nasdaq jumped more than 2%. The dollar index slumped.   But besides the 'disinflationary process', things went quite according to the plan at yesterday's FOMC meeting. The Fed increased the interest rates by 25bp, as expected. Powell said that they are happy with the falling inflation, but warned that the US jobs market remains tight, and wages growth is still too strong.   Powell didn't call the end of the rate hikes, just yet. On the contrary, the US policymakers signaled that there might be two more rate hikes before a pause, and that the tightness in the jobs market is a risk on inflation.   But all that fell on deaf ears after investors heard that 'disinflationary process started'.   Maybe the surprisingly low ADP report – that revealed that the US economy added a little more than 100'000 jobs last month, suggested that the labour conditions in the US might be easing just before Powell announced the latest FOMC decision? But the weakness in ADP report was mostly due to harsh winter conditions, and the job openings jumped past 11 mio.   Anyway, the Fed meeting was a boon for risk investors.   Note that, at the wake of the meeting, activity on Fed funds futures gives around 83% chance for the next FOMC meeting to deliver another 25bp hike, which would take the rates to 5% mark, as promised by Fed members.   But for equities, there is no reason to think that the bullish sentiment would reverse anytime soon. The S&P500 will certainly make an attempt on its 100-week moving average which stands a couple of points above the 4200 mark, and the 20% rally in Meta shares in the afterhours trading could keep the rally going today.  Apple, Amazon, Google, Ford and Qualcomm are due to announce their earnings today.  

It is gratifying to see the disinflationary process now getting underway’ said the Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jerome Powell at his press conference yesterday. ‘Disinflation process is getting underway’. Stock market That was the major - and the only take - of his speech yesterday, and sent the markets rallying. The US yields fell, the S&P500 reversed course and rallied more than 1% higher, while Nasdaq jumped more than 2%. The dollar index slumped. Fed At the wake of the meeting, activity on Fed funds futures gives around 83% chance for the next FOMC meeting to deliver another 25bp hike, which would take the rates to 5% mark, as promised by Fed members. And for equities, there is no reason to think that the bullish sentiment would reverse anytime soon. What else? Apple, Amazon, Google, Ford and Qualcomm are due to announce their earnings today. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) are both expected to raise the interest rates by 50bp today But it won’t be the same 50bp hike. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:31 One phrase: ‘disinflationary process is underway’ 4:31 Facebook’s Meta pops 20% after earnings 6:33 ECB to hike by 50bp 8:17 BoE to hike by 50bp, as well, but… Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #ECB #BoE #Fed #FOMC #meeting #Powell #disinflation #Meta #Apple #Google #Amazon #Ford #Qualcomm #earnings #USD #EUR #GBP #FTSE #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Yesterday was, again, a fantastic day of trading for equities, as the less hawkish than expected tone from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) meetings joined the optimistic vibes from the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s ‘disinflationary process’ mention a day before, and all that combined with Facebook’s best rally in almost a decade painted the market in the green. S&P500 The S&P500 gained around 1.50%. Nasdaq 100 jumped more than 3.5% and entered bull market as Meta jumped more than 23%. Earnings But today will probably not be as fantastic as yesterday, as Apple, Amazon and Google announced earnings after the bell yesterday, and they all disappointed. US jobs data Maybe, the again-important US jobs data could temper the earnings-triggered weakness – if of course the NFP number, and more importantly the wages growth are sufficiently soft to keep the Fed doves in charge of the market. Rates Elsewhere, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) raised their rates by 50bp yesterday, but Lagarde sounded much less aggressive than the December meeting. Read next: USD/JPY Pair Is Trading At 128.48 The Aussie Pair Is Above 0.71$| FXMAG.COM Euro The EURUSD sold off. But I believe that the euro’s recovery hasn’t ended just yet, as we see the end of the tunnel for the Fed – as the Fed rates approach the 5% mark, while we don’t yet see the end of the tightening tunnel for the ECB. Watch the full episode to find out more and find the link to our latest blog article : www.swissquote.com/blog 0:00 Intro 0:50 Stocks rally on dovish central bank expectations, and Facebook… 2:10 … but Apple, Amazon and Google dampen the mood. 5:38 What kind of US jobs data could cheer up investors? 6:42 BoE’s tightening cycle may end soon 8:21 ECB’s Lagarde sounded less aggressive than last December, but euro should do fine… Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #US #NFP #wages #jobs #data #ECB #BoE #Fed #FOMC #meeting #Powell #disinflation #Meta #Apple #Google #Amazon #earnings #USD #EUR #GBP #Bailey #Lagarde #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH      

Amazon's impact on Zappos is already visible through slowdowns. Louisa Vuitton tries to maintain an atmosphere of exclusivity. Layoffs at Zappos Zappos laid off more than 300 employees last month, about 20% of the Las Vegas-based company's workforce. Zappos' cuts were part of wider layoffs at Amazon, which are expected to cut more than 18,000 employees, which the daily said will affect about 5% of its corporate ranks. They are also the latest in a series of moves from longtime parent company Zappos. Among the significant changes at Zappos is the departure of Tyler Williams, a long-time Zappos executive and Hsieh's right-hand man for many years, who left the company during the latest round of layoffs, according to people familiar with the companies. Some of the recent layoffs at Zappos involved customer service representatives, a department. Zappos spokeswoman Laura Davis said the January cuts were part of Zappos' regular business planning. As for the customer service department, she said the cuts were "finally put in place to ensure Zappos is set up to continue to deliver exceptional customer service in the long term." Amazon and Zappos Hsieh agreed to sell Zappos to Amazon on the condition that the company would operate independently. For years, he worried about what Zappos employees called "Amazon creep," a reference to Amazon's executives becoming more involved and imposing a more traditional management style on them, according to former Zappos employees. Some Zappos divisions have already been incorporated into Amazon. Other changes have been more symbolic: recently, Amazon has largely replaced Zappos' distinctive white branded boxes with the parent company's standard brown packaging. According to former Amazon employees, it put pressure on Hsieh and his team until 2019 to meet certain growth goals. Since Hsieh's departure, Zappos has been experiencing internal turmoil. Overall, Amazon is much more involved with Zappos and its business decisions than it was when Hsieh headed the company. Zappos is now profitable, although it still hasn't met all of the growth targets Amazon has set for it. Read next: Campbell Bought A $100,000 Plane To Live In It| FXMAG.COM Amazon share price Amazon shares in early February reached its highest trading level since November last year at 112.91. Then the decline will begin and recently the share price closed below 100.00, at 97.61. Louis Vuitton made a show Louis Vuitton has built a huge makeshift warehouse in the courtyard of the Louvre to house a recent menswear show. Even by the standards of the fashion world, the show was an exaggerated spectacle - one that paid off handsomely for the company. According to Launchmetrics, which assigns a monetary value to every article, post or interaction about a brand or event, the show garnered more attention than any other brand during January's Paris Men's Fashion Week. $27.2 million in so-called media impact value is 91% more than last year's Vuitton show. It was proof that the business strategy had worked: the luggage and handbag company had established itself as the most powerful luxury goods brand in the world. LV gains Last month, the owner of a handbag maker said Louis Vuitton would reach $20 billion in revenue in 2022. It was just four years after the brand became the first in the luxury industry to reach $10 billion in annual sales. Louis Vuitton has benefited from a boom in luxury spending since the pandemic. The brand is now entering a critical phase. Former Louis Vuitton CEO Michael Burke and executive vice president Delphine Arnault, Arnault's daughter, handed over leadership earlier this month. The takeover will be handled by Italian CEO Pietro Beccari, the outgoing head of Dior, LVMH's second-largest brand. The change in leadership brings new economic pressures Louis Vuitton share price Louis Vuitton shares hit a high at EUR 829.40. Similar to Amazon shares, LVHM shares started their decline after peaking and recently closed below EUR 800 at 799.90. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com

And we've got it! 77 Q4 2022 held investment reports from superinvestor funds. What did the best of the best in this market invest in and walk away from, and what can we learn from this?  First, the highlights The 13F report is a form that investment funds in the United States must file if they control or manage assets of $100 million or more. Form 13F contains information about investments in individual listed companies, including the number of shares and the value of those investments at the end of each quarter. This information is publicly available. The most frequently held companies currently in superinvestors' portfolios are: Google (Alphabet) - as many as 31 times, Microsoft (Microsoft) - 30 times, Meta Platforms (Facebook) - 25 times, Amazon.com (Amazon) - 24 times and Visa (Visa) - 24 times. We have already had the opportunity to discuss the portfolios of George Soros and Warren Buffett. This time, however, let us look at their activities collectively. The most frequently bought companies By far the most frequently bought company was e-commerse giant Amazon.com (Amazon), which was snapped up by as many as 15 super-investors. This seems interesting particularly given the problems of the consumer goods sector, which seems to be particularly negatively affected by the economic slowdown and high interest rates. Amazon currently accounts for 1.62 per cent in the value of all superinvestor portfolios. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Amazon, Daily The second most bought company was technology giant Meta Platforms (Facebook), which was acquired by as many as 13 super-investors in Q4 2022. Following problems with its - seemingly misguided - investment of more than $13 billion in the Metaverse, the company announced a 13 per cent job cut. The cost reduction may have improved investor sentiment, as the company's shares, after falling as much as 78 per cent, have now rebounded 122 per cent from the bottom. Meta accounts for 1.31 per cent of the value of all superinvestors' portfolios. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Facebook, Daily The third most bought company was another tech giant that has recently become famous for its investment in artificial intelligence - Microsoft (Microsoft). It was bought by as many as 11 of the super-investors. The company is now the largest position among all funds, accounting for as much as 2.36 per cent of their portfolios. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Microsoft, Daily In fourth place was Microsoft's biggest competitor, Google (Alphabet), which appears to be focusing on creating a tool such as ChatGPT. The company was bought by nine super-investors in the last quarter of last year, and its shares accounted for 1.52 per cent of the value of funds' portfolios. Source: Conotoxia MT5, alphabet, Daily The most sold companies Interestingly, the most sold company turned out to be the previously mentioned Microsoft. It was sold by 14 super-investors. The largest buyer was Daniel Loeb (Third Point fund), who increased the company's stake by 4.75 per cent of his portfolio, and the largest seller was John Armitage (Egerton Capital fund), reducing the company's stake by 5 per cent of his portfolio. Ex aequo with Microsoft was the world's largest payment service provider, Visa (Visa), also sold by 14 super-investors, with only four of them buying its shares. Viking Global Investors fund bought the largest stake, accounting for 0.46 per cent of its portfolio value, while Lee Ainsile (Maveric Capital fund) opted for the largest sale with 1.32 per cent of its portfolio value. It appears that the reluctance to buy the company may be linked to expectations of reduced consumer activity in the coming quarters. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Visa, Daily In third place were Google shares sold by 12 of the super investors. China's Li Lu (Himalaya Capital Management fund) seems to be by far the most optimistic about the company's future. He increased the company's stake by as much as 7.3 per cent of the value of his portfolio. The biggest pessimist, on the other hand, was Josh Tarasoff from the Greenlea Lane Capital fund. He reduced his position in the company by 2.2 per cent of the value of his portfolio. What conclusions can we draw from this? Based on the investments of all super investors, it is therefore difficult to identify the best and worst assets. This may be due to the fundamental issue of different investment styles and strategies. Therefore, drawing conclusions from the investments undertaken should be preceded by an understanding of the style of the fund in question and its assumptions for entering and exiting positions. Grzegorz Dróżdż, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76,41% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Amazon is in the middle of one of the most difficult financial problems in the company's history. In November, the biggest round of layoffs the company has ever carried out began as Amazon adjusted to faltering retail demand coupled with years of mass hiring. Then there's the problem of low pay. Moreover, a manufacturer of telecommunications equipment decides to reduce employment. Lower salary Amazon pays its corporate employees a large portion of their annual wages in capped stock units, and the prolonged decline in the company's stock is putting salaries for 2023 between 15% and 50% below projected targets Amazon has set for employees. Amazon has historically given employees a lower base salary than its big-tech counterparts, but has made up the difference with stock awards that have been purchased over several years. Employees say the longer an Amazon employee stays with the company, the more their pay may depend on stock awards, with stock accounting for 50% or more of total income for some. Amazon share price Over the past year, Amazon shares have fallen more than 35% as a result of a broader tech slowdown and slower growth on Amazon's retail side. When Amazon issues limited shares to employees, it is based on a long-standing assumption shared in compensation talks that Amazon shares will appreciate at least 15% each year. Until recently, this was largely true. From 2017 to the beginning of 2022, the share price increased by an average of about 30% per year. But Amazon stock is currently trading at around $97 a share, and some employee compensation packages are built on the assumption that Amazon stock will cost around $170 a share. Read next: USD/JPY Pair Is Above 134.00, EUR/USD Pair Holds Below 1.07, GBP/USD Pair Managed To Rebound| FXMAG.COM Layoffs and no new jobs By January, Amazon had laid off 18,000 corporate employees, the most of any tech company in this latest wave of layoffs. In addition to eliminating current positions, Amazon also revoked job offers from some applicants who had accepted and had not yet started, and delayed the start date of some new hires by six months. The information previously informed about the canceled offers. Ericsson and layoffs Ericsson plans to cut around 1,400 jobs in Sweden as the telecommunications equipment giant struggles with slowing demand for its 5G equipment in markets such as the US. Ericsson last month reported a lower-than-expected quarterly profit and warned that the start of the new year is uncertain as telecom operators in markets such as the US hold back on placing new orders for 5G equipment amid economic uncertainty. The cuts are part of an effort the company announced late last year to cut costs by SEK 9 billion, equivalent to around $861 million, by the end of 2023 by streamlining processes, closing facilities and reducing the number of consultants. Ericsson has just concluded negotiations with Swedish unions and plans to cut jobs under a voluntary scheme, a spokeswoman said on Monday. In the coming days, managers will share with their employees how this affects each unit. Ericsson share price Ericsson shares are at an all-time low, last seen in 2017. Currently, the share price is at 5.76. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com

The Internet offers many possibilities. Also, people who want to run illegal activities have an ideal place to do so. In this article: Warren Buffett and his annual letter Ease of selling stolen items Latin America Warren Buffett and his annual letter In his annual letter to Berkshire shareholders, the 92-year-old Buffett urged investors to focus on the big picture over the long term, rather than higher inflation and other factors. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett signaled on Saturday that he has not lost lasting confidence in the US economy and his company Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Buffett called 2022 a "good year" for Berkshire, with many of its strongest companies holding up to the pressures of heightened inflation, rising interest rates and supply chain disruptions. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett in his annual letter to shareholders urged investors to focus on the big picture over the long term, and pushed back on critics of stock buybacks. Read more https://t.co/SdVLJpK7wY pic.twitter.com/iAllyjuGFD — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) February 26, 2023 Read next: Forex Weekly Summary: EUR/USD Ended The Week Below 1.06 And GBP/USD Below 1.20, USD/JPY Ended The Week Higher Above 136.00| FXMAG.COM Ease of selling stolen items Over the past year, large-scale robberies have occurred at stores such as Louis Vuitton in San Francisco's Union Square and at nearby Nordstrom, which was robbed by 80 people. Law enforcement and retailers are warning the public that this is not traditional shoplifting. What they see is rather theft organized by criminal networks. Retailers say $68.9 billion worth of products were stolen in 2019. In 2020, three-quarters reported an increase in organized crime, and more than half reported cargo theft. Some major chains blame organized theft for recent store closures or their decisions to reduce opening hours. Amazon, eBay and Facebook are where these stolen goods are sold, with critics saying they are not doing enough to put an end to the business. The companies disagree. For example, Amazon says it has spent over $900 million and hired over 12,000 people in 2021 to prevent fraud and abuse. The company also says it requests "proofs of origin" when it has concerns about how products are sourced and works with authorities to eliminate illegal activity. Getting started selling on Facebook Marketplace is relatively simple. Although it is against its policy to sell stolen goods, Meta typically does not require proof of identity other than a basic name and a verifiable email address or phone number needed to open a Facebook account. How do stolen goods end up on Amazon, eBay and Facebook Marketplace? Watch the video to learn more and what the online marketplaces are doing to stop the sale of stolen products. https://t.co/oKgoSe6UJ4 pic.twitter.com/sC975Kpsdf — CNBC (@CNBC) February 26, 2023 Latin America Latin American economies performed well last year despite the upheavals caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and global interest rate hikes. In 2022, the region's economy grew by nearly 4%. Despite this encouraging news on economic growth and inflation, 2023 is likely to be a challenging year for the region. Growth this year is expected to slow to just 2 percent, with higher interest rates and falling commodity prices. Latin America's economy expanded by nearly 4% in 2022, employment recovered strongly, and the service sector rebounded from the damage caused by the pandemic. More on #IMFBlog: https://t.co/iFCzzU0810 pic.twitter.com/OWf2T8Qvh7 — IMF (@IMFNews) February 26, 2023

Analysts at Freedom Finance Europe have highlighted several companies that investors should look out for in the second half of this year. One of them is Amazon (AMZN), which continues to grow revenues in key segments. "The company has too many positive catalysts to ignore, and the recent weakness provides an opportunity to enter into an attractive asset", says the speaker. In addition, despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, AMZN's revenues in the latest quarter exceeded the forecast range to $127.4 billion and operating profit was $4.8 billion. These results are due to growth in e-commerce. North American region, for example, saw double-digit sales increases and a return to profitability, while the international segment also saw strong growth. On top of that, company's cloud business revenues, Amazon Web Services were up 16% year-on-year.  "Management forecasts sales growth of 10%, to $133 billion in the next quarter, with operating profit expected to remain stable, at between $2 billion and $5.5 billion. These results and forecasts look quite compelling. The company has also built an unrivalled logistics network for parcel delivery, sometimes with same-day delivery", said the speaker. These factors take Amazon’s potential to a maximum target price of $220.  Next up is the well-known coffee chain Starbucks (SBUX). As the speaker explained, the company is considered an attractive and long-term investment due to its commitment to shareholder value, revenue growth and higher earnings per stock. SBUX had a solid quarter. In Q2 2023, Starbucks had revenue of $8.7 billion, up 14% year-on-year. EPS increased by 36% compared to the same period in 2022. Even more impressively, Starbucks quarterly sales and EPS were 38% and 49% higher than the same period in 2019 (before the pandemic). The company also has a rewards programme that rewards customers for repeat purchases. For example, there are currently 30.8 million active loyalty programme members in the US. That's an increase of 15% over last year.   "Coffee is an integral part of society and it is hard to imagine a scenario where Starbucks ever disappears. The company has almost 37,000 shops and the goal is to have 55,000 outlets worldwide by 2030", the speaker added. The fundamental potential for an average target price is at $114. Another company that may be worth taking a closer look at is Booking Holdings (BKNG), which operates in the online travel industry. In particular, it offers services through its Booking.com, KAYAK, Priceline, Agoda, Rentalcars.com and OpenTable brands. Data from the Economist Intelligence Unit shows that the segment is expected to grow by 30% in 2023 as the number of Chinese tourists abroad may increase. "In previous years, the 'zero COVID' policy has held back tourism from China, which has recently been a major source of growth. As the situation changes this year, Booking Holdings could benefit from this. In addition, the number of trips remains below 2019 levels, which leaves room for growth and continues a solid recovery", explained the speaker. BKNG's revenue increased by $4 billion in the last quarter, and it continues to benefit from a network advantage that has allowed it to maintain its agency model rather than move to a vendor model where the online travel agency would be responsible for paying the fees. Fundamental potential for an average target price of $2800.