american dollar

The time is coming when the strongest trend is coming to an end. But this does not apply to the American dollar. In 2021, it strengthened due to expectations of monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve, and in 2022, due to its implementation. In 2023, investors expected the trend in the USD index to be broken. And at first, everything was going according to plan. However, in the summer, there was a 180-degree turnaround, which came as a real surprise to hedge funds. They remain short sellers of the American currency and are losing money.

 

Dynamics of the U.S. dollar and hedge fund positionsej

 

 

The September survey of Reuters experts suggests that in the short term, "bears" on EUR/USD will maintain their strength due to a strong economy and high U.S. Treasury bond yields. However, over the next three months, the euro will rise to $1.09. In 6 months, it will be worth $1.10, and in 12 months, $1.12. This forecast is based on the idea of a dovish pivot and the central bank'

Tesla’s Shares Are The Most Expensive|Apple Started Production In India

Features and Advantages of New Elongate Crypto

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 28.05.2021 12:48
Blockchain technology is changing the world, even though many people still see it just as a speculative novelty, and that making the decision to buy bitcoin is still safer and more profitable in the long term. Indeed, it is impossible to deny the impact of cryptocurrencies in the social environment and philanthropy, especially when looking at several projects that receive donations of digital coins. Elongate is one of the new projects that want to use blockchain technology to impact the lives of millions of people worldwide, providing a gateway between cryptocurrency donations and charities in need. In this article, you will discover the features and advantages of the Elongate project and its native token. Is There Any Affiliation Between Elongate and Elon Musk? Billionaire and tech industry entrepreneur Elon Musk is responsible for several recent events that led the crypto market to ups and downs, which includes Tesla's acquisition of US$1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin in early 2021. Plus, the eccentric billionaire caused a major impact on the market sentiment around Dogecoin, which led the meme coin to a major price appreciation and a record-breaking market cap, taking the cryptocurrency price to new heights. However, even though Musk is indeed an enthusiast of cryptocurrencies, as demonstrated in his social media recently, there is no affiliation between him and the Elongate project. Elongate Crypto - What Is It? Elongate is a crypto-based project that began as a parody of Elon Musk's tweet referencing the Watergate Scandal published on March 25, 2021. Once the idea became public, the project managed to reunite an active community with over 100k holders with the same purpose in mind. Hence, their main purpose behind the idea is to wield the power and capital of memes and internet culture to change the way people do charity. So far, the project has raised over US$1,000,000 for charity causes. Thus, the project pledges to give back 80% of all income generated to charity, putting a lot of effort into becoming the ultimate combo between philanthropic initiatives and cryptocurrencies. The project's native token, $ElonGate, is a high-yield deflationary cryptocurrency on the Binance Smart Chain. $ElonGate holders will be rewarded with transaction fees (10%), while a good sum of the collected fees will be also donated to charity. Explaining the ElonGate Token The Elongate coin ($ElonGate) is a BEP20 token issued on the Binance Smart Chain. The token has a total fixed supply of 1 Quadrillion tokens, so it will not be a problem for investors to acquire it. Initially, a pre-sale campaign was hosted by DxSale, a well-known cross-chain token management platform. Subsequently, the initial $ElonGate liquidity pool has been locked under DxSale's unique DeFiLaunch Certified Liquidity Locker to ensure the community's assets security. Out of Ethereum - Explaining the Binance Smart Chain Different from many projects launched in recent times, the project opted to structure its idea using the Binance Smart Chain instead of the Ethereum Network. For those unaware, the Binance Smart Chain (BSN) is a blockchain network that works in parallel to the Binance Chain. Hence, the Binance Smart Chain has exclusive features, such as offering EVM compatibility and smart contract functionality. Most importantly, the Binance Smart Chain offers interoperability, which means users can invest/trade in the network using their Ethereum-based wallets. Also, a great advantage of the Binance Smart Chain is that, in terms of transaction fees, the experience is much more affordable when compared to the Ethereum Network. Elongate Crypto - The Latest News Throughout several weekly live broadcasts, called charity parties with its close-knit community of investors, Elongate has donated funds to various charity organizations, including Children International, Action Against Hunger, and The Ocean Cleanup. On April 4, the Children International accepted the first donation of US $ 75,000, an amount that increased to US$325,000 at Elongate's latest fundraiser on April 18. Meanwhile, the entities Action Against Hunger and The Ocean Cleanup received a total of US$ 250,000 from the Elongate community. An additional commitment has been reserved for Big Green, which will join Elongate in a live broadcast event on the same day of this year's Earth Day celebrations. Big Green is a non-profit organization founded by Kimbal Musk and Hugo Matheson, with the purpose of creating healthy environments where children can learn and grow. Final Thoughts Elongate is a revolutionary project that aims to be the gateway between charity/philanthropy and cryptocurrencies. So far, the project managed to attract thousands of followers. Even though Elongate is still in the initial stage, the community members organized to maintain, manage and expand the project. At the moment, it is worth noting that the project has no affiliations with Elon Musk. Elongate's marketing director Gene Rhode stated that charity is the core of the project's ecosystem, but their goal is to expand their value offer. Beyond philanthropy, they want to implement a platform focused on NFTs and other crypto-based innovations.
Economic Calendar by FXMAG.COM - Week 21/02-25/02 - Beginning With Holiday...

Intraday Market Analysis – WTI Rally Gains Traction

Jing Ren Jing Ren 18.10.2021 08:21
Oil prices jumped after the IEA raised its global oil demand growth forecast. WTI crude continues to grind its way up after it reached a seven-year high. The RSI has returned to the neutrality area and a short-lived retracement met strong buying interest above 78.70. The bulls may raise volatility once again if they succeed in pushing back above the psychological tag of 82.00. A newly overbought RSI may temporarily restrain the momentum. On the downside, a breakout could trigger a correction to 75.50. XAGUSD rises towards key resistance Silver advanced higher as the US dollar index licks wounds after a heavy decline. The precious metal broke above the supply zone around the 30-day moving average (23.10). This is a sign of a bullish U-turn with 23.95 from the daily timeframe as the next target. As the RSI flirts with the overbought territory, we can expect strong selling pressure at that level of interest. 22.90 is the immediate support in case of retracement. Further down, 22.20 is the bulls’ second line of defense. US 100 attempts a bullish reversal The Nasdaq 100 rose as investors anticipate strong profit growth in the third quarter. The break above 14930 has prompted sellers to cover their positions, alleviating the bearish pressure in the process. The tech index has then secured support around 14600. A bullish close above the psychological level of 15000 would bring some much-needed confidence to the long side. Then the daily resistance at 15415 would be in the crosshair. Meanwhile, the RSI’s overbought situation may cause a limited pullback to 14900.
We Will Probably Review All Of Inflation Indicators Around The World This Weekend

Beware, Gold Bulls — That’s the Beginning of the End

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 18.10.2021 11:40
Strong words, I know. Can I back them up? Well, what we see now – looking at various markets – does indeed look like the start of gold’s end. “Everything that has a beginning has an end.” – The Oracle in Matrix Revolutions, 2003 The counter-trend rally has probably just ended, and the final big downswing has probably just started. This “beginning” of the final downswing is, in my opinion, the beginning of the final part of the prolonged sideways trend in gold that started in 2011. In the case of silver and mining stocks, that’s likely the final part of the decline that started back then. These are strong words – I know. Let’s see if I can back them up. First of all, I’ve been writing about the analogy between 2013 and now for many weeks now, and you can read about these analogies in this week’s flagship analysis. This key link remains intact. The charts given below confirm that from the short-term point of view. In yesterday’s analysis, I commented on them in the following way: Gold jumped to its 40-week moving average and to the declining red line based on the previous short-term highs. Let’s check the context – what happened in 2013? Right before moving to its previous medium-term lows, gold moved to its declining red resistance line that was also very close to its 40-week moving average. I marked this situation with a red arrow on both charts. As you can see, nothing changed. The link between 2013 and now remains completely intact and its implications remain very bearish. On a very short-term basis (yesterday’s session), silver outperformed gold and moved above its declining resistance line. While gold moved higher by 0.18%, silver moved higher by 1.32%. I wrote this numerous times, and I’m going to write about this again today – silver’s very short-term outperformance of gold is not a bullish sign but a bearish one, and being aware of that is one of the more useful gold trading tips. As far as silver’s “breakout” is concerned, it’s nothing bullish either. When you look at the August top, you’ll see that it also happened after a small, short-term breakout. The same with the early-September high. We’re seeing the same thing once again, and the implications are, once again, bearish. On the bottom part of the above chart, you can see the HUI Index – a proxy for gold stocks. It moved notably higher recently, and it even moved above its March low, but it’s still far from its November 2020 low. So, taking a broader point of view, gold stocks are still the weakest part of the precious metals sector right now. Moreover, please note that gold failed to hold its tiny move back above $1,800 – it was quickly invalidated. At the moment of writing these words, gold is trading at about $1,785. Also, speaking of mining stocks, let’s take a look at what the juniors did. They rallied profoundly, which by itself might not be the most exciting thing you read today, especially given our short positions in them (let’s keep in mind that we took profits from the previous short position in the junior miners on Sep. 28, just one day before the bottom), but it is quite interesting when you consider how high the RSI is right now, and when in the past both the RSI and the GDXJ itself were trading at today’s levels. That was in late February 2020. Back then, juniors were after a short-term rally from below $40, and they topped above $44. The RSI approached 70 — just like what we see today. And then the GDXJ declined below $20 in less than a month. I think the decline will take place longer this time, but the outlook is still extremely bearish. By the way, the last time when the RSI was as high as it is right now was… right at the 2020 top. That’s yet another indication for gold that signals that the top is in or at hand. But why shouldn’t gold, silver, and mining stocks rally even higher before turning south? Not only are they overbought on their own, but they actually have a good reason to reverse, which is coming from the USD Index. The USD Index moved back to its previous 2021 lows and its rising support line, and then it moved back up. It’s also been moving higher in today’s pre-market trading. This tells us that the corrective flag pattern might already be over and – since the support held – the next move higher is quite likely just about to start, or it’s already underway. Even though the USD’s move higher is so far very tiny, gold and silver are down by about 0.5% today. Is the top in the PMs in? This seems quite likely to me. What we see right now – especially in light of the analogy to Feb. 2020 in the GDXJ – does indeed look like the beginning of the end. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chief Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
New Year starts with strong Tesla results, OPEC decision | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Struggles For Support

Jing Ren Jing Ren 18.10.2021 12:08
EURUSD attempts a bullish breakout The US dollar retreated after retail sales fell below 1% in September. The euro’s rally above 1.1570 has led some short interests to close their positions. The pair is testing the key resistance at 1.1640, which coincides with the 20-day moving average and the first resistance on the daily chart. A bullish breakout could pave the way for recovery to 1.1750. However, buyers could be hesitant to commit after an overbought RSI caused profit-taking. In case of a pullback, 1.1540 is fresh support to keep the current rebound relevant. NZDUSD tests key resistance The New Zealand dollar rallies as Q3 inflation beats estimates. After a few days of sideways action, the indecision ended with a break above 0.7020, the origin of the last sell-off. In turn, this set the kiwi on a bullish course. Sellers would scramble to get out after their failed attempts to push lower. An overbought RSI may cause a temporary pullback. 0.7040 is the immediate support, then 0.6980 is the second line of defense in case of a deeper correction. A close above 0.7110 would lift the pair towards the previous peak at 0.7170. GER 40 heads towards major hurdle The Dax 40 bounces higher as the market bets on a prolonged low-interest environment. The major floor at 14800 has seen strong buying interest as traders bought the dip. A bullish close above 15200 has put the short side under pressure. Then a rally above the 30-day moving average indicates further commitment from the buy-side. The momentum could slow down momentarily as the RSI shows an overbought situation. 15300 would be the first support. A break above the daily resistance at 15700 may resume the uptrend.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Seeks Support - 19.10.2021

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Seeks Support - 19.10.2021

Jing Ren Jing Ren 19.10.2021 12:07
The Australian dollar rallied after the RBA expected a return to growth in October’s meeting minutes. The pair has met stiff selling pressure in the supply zone (0.7460) from the September sell-off. And the RSI is once again in the overbought area. Short-term buyers would be eager to take profit, driving the price lower in the process. 0.7380 is the first support and will test the bulls’ resolve. A bounce above the said resistance would trigger an extended rally. On the downside, a bearish breakout may cause a correction to 0.7320. USDCHF sees limited rebound The US dollar recoups some losses supported by recovering Treasury yields. The drop below the demand zone around 0.9230 has put the bulls under pressure. An oversold RSI has triggered the buy-the-dips mentality at the fresh support at 0.9200. The buy-side will need to clear the hurdle at 0.9310 to reclaim control of the direction. Otherwise, the latest rebound may be an opportunity for the bears to sell into strength. A new round of sell-off would send the pair towards the daily support at 0.9100. NAS 100 tests resistance The Nasdaq 100 rallies as investors seem to be feeling confident about the upcoming earnings. A rebound above the psychological level of 15000 suggests strong buying interest in keeping the rally intact in the medium-term. The RSI’s overbought situation has temporarily held the impetus back. A retracement is likely to attract bids in the vicinity of 15050. 15400 is a major resistance from the daily timeframe and its breach may resume the uptrend above 15700. Failing that, 14800 is a key floor on the downside.  
Intraday Market Analysis -GBP Consolidates Gains

Intraday Market Analysis - GBP Consolidates Gains

Jing Ren Jing Ren 21.10.2021 09:12
The pound’s rally stalled after Britain’s core CPI dropped below 3% in September. The pair’s recovery has picked up the pace after a close above the daily resistance at 1.3730. 1.3900 is the main hurdle and a bullish breakout would resume the uptrend. However, the RSI’s triple top in the overbought area indicates an overextension. A pullback is necessary to let the bulls consolidate their gains. The supply-turned-demand zone around 1.3710 is the first level to watch for. Its breach may trigger more profit-takings towards 1.3630. USDCAD sell-off continues The Canadian dollar rallied after solid inflation data in September. The US dollar has found little buying interest near July’s lows (1.2310). A bullish RSI divergence out of the oversold area suggests a deceleration in the downward momentum. But buyers need confirmation of a reversal, and a break above 1.2370 would be the first step to force sellers to cover. The Canadian dollar rallied after solid inflation data in September. The US dollar has found little buying interest near July’s lows (1.2310). Sentiment remains bearish unless the pair lifts offers around 1.2500. Failing that, the greenback could be vulnerable to a new round of sell-off towards 1.2250. USOIL gains support WTI crude bounced back after the EIA reported a surprise drop in US inventories. A previous double top had indicated potential exhaustion as the price struggled to achieve a higher high. However, the price has found support at 81.00 as buyers were eager to stake in at a better price. Overall sentiment remains upbeat and a close above at 83.80 may trigger an extended rally to 86.00. An overbought RSI may temporarily limit the momentum. But as long as the price is above the said support the directional bias stays bullish.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains

Jing Ren Jing Ren 22.10.2021 11:29
The US dollar steadies over lower-than-expected initial jobless claims. Sentiment remains upbeat, however, the pair is struggling to climb past the psychological level of 115.00, probably due to overextension. The RSI’s double top in the overbought area and bearish divergence suggests that the rally could be losing steam. A breach below 113.90 would prompt weaker hands to exit, leading to a pullback towards 113.00. A rebound past the said resistance would send the price to March 2017’s high of 115.40. XAGUSD to test critical ceiling Silver stalls as the greenback reclaims some lost ground. The break above the round number of 24.00 indicates strong commitment from the buy-side. The bulls are looking at the major resistance at 24.80 from the daily timeframe, as a breakout would end a five-month-long correction and pave the way for a bullish reversal. However, an overbought RSI coupled with a bearish divergence suggests possible exhaustion in the run-up. 23.60 would be the first level to watch for if the price pulls lower in search of support. SPX 500 tests all-time high The S&P 500 flies high supported by better-than-expected third-quarter earnings. The index has reached the previous all-time high at 4550. A breakout may trigger a runaway rally. Nonetheless, a repeatedly overbought RSI may cause a limited pullback as buyers take profit. A drop below the immediate support at 4515 would pull the trigger. 4445 would be next as it coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the October rally. The bulls are likely to buy the dips though after sentiment turns optimistic.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Seeks Support - 19.10.2021

Silver, the loaded spring

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 22.10.2021 11:43
The supply crunch might stretch as much as a seven-year event from now, but the spring is loaded already. It isn’t only a supply, demand scenario when talking about silver. Little accounted for is any surprise, and in our opinion, the slightest cough could set this spring off. The sum of fundamental facts is overwhelming on how the next large turning point could set silver  into stellar motion. With this many accelerators, it makes this an incredible risk/reward-ratio play. Silver, the loaded spring. Here are a few facts that we do not see accounted for in price and as that find to be accelerators for the next monthly time frame leg up: increase in demand for physical silver purchase during the previous eighteen months eleven trillion dollars pumped into the economy over the last eighteen months (inflation) electricity prices rising = demand for solar panels increasing (which contain silver) supply logistic constraints all over the world make large shipments of raw materials stuck in various ports (including silver) Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart, signs of life: Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of October 22nd, 2021. With the already present shortages of blanks for minting coins and a driver shortage for armored cars, why is silver trading at these low numbers? There is plenty of evidence that once demand for silver increases further, a short squeeze might be triggered. Consequently, silver prices might soar beyond typical trend steepness. On the daily chart above, signs of life are already evident. The trend-down channel since June this year has recently been broken to the upside. The first indication of a reversal. We have a keen eye on the price levels near the green dotted horizontal lines for possible low-risk long entries. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, on the verge: We have warned numerous times that the two most detrimental factors to market losses are intuition and emotions. Intuition, while one of the most resourceful problem solvers, is worthless in the counterintuitive market environment. Emotions provide for a clouded perception of actual market behavior and a tendency to overwrite one’s rules and cause sabotage to disciplined behavior necessary for execution within one’s market play. Emotions aren’t only fear and greed, or chasing trades and running stops. Over the last forty years, we were less worried about inflation. As a result, we might be a bit  complacent now to validate early warning signals. Procrastination might be a consequence. Be advised that acquisition of physical purchase requires availability and even more knowledge. What to buy? Where to buy it? The spring is loaded. There is no room for research once it’s sprung. Prepare your actions in detail. Make a sample purchase for confidence and experience if you haven’t done so already. It is education that supports all subsequent steps and possible surprises to endure. Knowledge will give you the edge over the average citizen. Spot price analysis is helpful as well to keep calm and prepared. The weekly chart above shows a pat situation. Bulls celebrated above the mean (blue line). Fourteen weeks ago, the directional green trend line was violated by price. Bears pushed since then prices to lower levels. Right now, we are right on the verge of price trading near the red resistance downtrend line. This makes not for a low-risk entry zone on this time frame but should price close above this line, it would indicate a possible long trend continuation. Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, bullish engulfing pattern: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of October 22nd, 2021. It seems the crowd is complacent about all monthly bills and especially food prices going through the roof. Many billionaires, including Stanley Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor-Jones, Bill Ackman and Warren Buffett, have stated that Americans aren’t paying enough attention to the fact that we will face consequences of the eleven trillion dollars pumped into the economy over the last eighteen months. The monthly chart reflects these market uncertainties to a certain degree. Silver prices have seen a substantial move up. Even though trading within a sideways range for over a year now, October is exceptionally strong so far. Representing a bullish engulfing pattern from a Japanese candlestick perspective, the majority of sellers in September got stopped out or are underwater. Should prices close above US$ 24 for this month, we would be very bullish on silver. We have already taken nine trades on small timeframes this month, of which seven were successful winning trades. Our quad exit strategy allows the remaining partial positions (the last 25% which we call “runner”) to be exposed at no risk within the markets. All these trades are posted in real-time in our free Telegram channel. Silver, the loaded spring: There seems to be much confusion regarding the math on silver demand in the news. Boiling it down to a simple equation, we are mining an average of about 800 to 850 million ounces a year. In opposition to this mine supply, industrial demand is about 600 million ounces. With a speculated growth to about a billion ounces of industrial demand, it isn’t so challenging to feel safe on a long-term bet holding physical silver. And we are only talking about one sector of silver demand here… The real kicker will be the investment demand. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.
Gold Bearish Outlook: Everything Goes According to Plan

Gold Bearish Outlook: Everything Goes According to Plan

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 27.10.2021 14:35
We might see a plunge in gold prices quite soon. History repeats itself to a huge degree at the moment – let’s see what it has to offer. Today’s technical analysis will be very similar to what I provided to you yesterday because the markets pretty much moved exactly as I had expected. As you may recall, I wrote about the analogy between now and early August in the following way (I’m putting the key part in bold): The situation now appears to be the same as it was at the beginning of August, where the bottom also took several days to form, but when the USD Index finally moved higher once again, gold plunged. To be precise, back then, the bottom formed over 5 trading days, and yesterday was the fifth trading day of the current bottom. On the sixth day – back then – the USDX did very little and gold declined modestly, and it was the seventh day when the action really started. And… the short-term decline was over on the very next day. It was not easy to catch this decline if one wanted to wait for a big confirmation that it was indeed taking place. It seems that the same – patient – approach is justified in the current situation. The RSI indicator (upper part of the chart) continues to confirm this similarity. Yesterday, the USD Index ended the session 0.13 higher, so – just as in early August – it moved very little. Gold declined modestly back then, and, well, it moved lower by $13.40 yesterday, so it seems that it fits well. Gold is down by $6 in today’s pre-market trading (at the moment of writing these words), so it seems that history might repeat itself to a very big degree. If it repeated itself to the letter, we would have a $100+ decline in gold this week. But since history rhymes more than it repeats, I think it’s more realistic to simply expect gold to fall substantially soon, without giving the decline just 2 days to materialize. The situation now appears to be the same as it was at the beginning of August, where the bottom also took several days to form, but when the USD Index finally moved higher once again, gold plunged. To be precise, back then, the bottom formed over 5 trading days, and yesterday was the fifth trading day of the current bottom. On the sixth day – back then – the USDX did very little and gold declined modestly, and it was the seventh day when the action really started. And… the short-term decline was over on the very next day. It was not easy to catch this decline if one wanted to wait for a big confirmation that it was indeed taking place. It seems that the same – patient – approach is justified in the current situation. The RSI indicator (upper part of the chart) continues to confirm this similarity. Yesterday, the USD Index ended the session 0.13 higher, so – just as in early August – it moved very little. Gold declined modestly back then, and, well, it moved lower by $13.40 yesterday, so it seems that it fits well. Gold is down by $6 in today’s pre-market trading (at the moment of writing these words), so it seems that history might repeat itself to a very big degree. If it repeated itself to the letter, we would have a $100+ decline in gold this week. But since history rhymes more than it repeats, I think it’s more realistic to simply expect gold to fall substantially soon, without giving the decline just 2 days to materialize. To explain, the green line above tracks the GDXJ ETF from the beginning of 2013 to the end of 2015. If you analyze the left side of the chart, you can see that when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted at tapering on May 22, 2013, the GDXJ ETF declined by 32% from May 22 until the taper began on Dec. 18. Moreover, the onslaught didn’t end there. Once the taper officially began, the GDXJ ETF enjoyed a relief rally (similar to what we’re witnessing now) as long-term interest rates declined, and the PMs assumed that the worst was in the rearview. All in all, the technical picture for the precious metals sector looks bearish, even though the recent short-term corrective upswing might make one think otherwise. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chief Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Sideways drifts and targets hit

Sideways drifts and targets hit

Jason Sen Jason Sen 28.10.2021 12:21
AUDUSD trades sideways after we warned last week that the rally has ended with Thursday's bearish engulfing candle. We keep holding good support at 7465/55 & held just below strong resistance at 7555/65. We can trade the range while we wait for a breakout. NZDUSD longs at 7140/30 work perfectly again yesterday hitting the target of 7180/90 for profit taking as we remain in the sideways trend. This could be the case for an extended period after Thursday's bearish engulfing candle. AUDJPY also likely to trade sideways for a while after Thursday's bearish engulfing candle for a sell signal. Today's Analysis. AUDUSD longs at good support at 7465/55 work again on the bounce to 7500/05 for profit taking before a high for the day yesterday exactly at the next target of 7530/35. Strong resistance at 7555/65 should be a big challenge. Try shorts with stops above 7580, looking for a double top sell signal. Longs at 7465/55 again today stop below 7445 (so the risk is very small). A break lower is a sell signal targeting 7410/7390, perhaps as far as 7360/50. NZDUSD longs at first support at 7140/30 could work again re-targeting 7180/90 for profit taking & as expected this was a high for the day. If we retest 7200/7220, try shorts with stops above 7240, looking for a double top sell signal. BUT be ready to sell again at very strong resistance at 7255/75. Stop above 7300. Longs at first support at 7140/30 must stop below 7120 so the risk is very small. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 7090/80 probably as far as 7040/30. AUDJPY I would sell at 8620/40 (unfortunately yesterday's high was 8605) with stops above 8660 looking for a double top sell signal. A break higher kills the bearish engulfing candle for a buy signal. First support at 8460/40 in the sideways trend. A bounce targets 8500 perhaps as far as 8540/50. A break below 8420 however is the next sell signal targeting 8370 & 8345/35. To subscribe to this daily report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk USDJPY longs at support at 113.40/30 were offered 50 pips yesterday. as we topped exactly at first resistance at 113.80/95. EURJPY buying opportunity at at 131.60/40, stop below 131.30. CADJPY shorts at first resistance at 9240/60 keep working this week. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wASlHvMEN6g Update daily at 06:30 GMT Today's Analysis. USDJPY meets minor resistance at 113.85/95. Strong resistance at last week's high at 114.50/70. Shorts need stops above 114.80. A break higher is a medium term buy signal. Good support again at 113.40/30. Longs need stops below 113.20 so the risk is very small. A break lower target 113.00/112.90 & 112.60/50. EURJPY buy at 131.60/40, stop below 131.30. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 130.90 then an important buying opportunity at 130.40/20 with stops below 130.00 Longs at 131.60/40 target 131.90 & 132.10 for profit taking. Strong resistance at 132.20/40. Shorts need stops above 132.60. CADJPY shorts at first resistance at 9240/60 work again as we target 9200 & 9175, hit as I write this morning. A buying opportunity at 9120/00 with stops below 9090. Gains are likely to be limited with first resistance at 9240/60. However on a break higher sell at 9280/9300 with stops above 9320. To subscribe to this daily report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk EURUSD breaks support at 1.1620/00 so this is now working as resistance. It is difficult to trade the pair as the daily ranges are small & we are mostly trading sideways. USDCAD shorts at first resistance at 1.2420/40 this trade worked perfectly on the collapse to 1.2370  & as far as first support at 1.2300/1.2280. Longs here also this trade worked perfectly on the bounce to 1.2370 for an easy 120 pip profit on the day. GBPCAD shorts at first resistance at 1.7050/70 handed a quick & easy 150 pip profit yesterday. Update daily at 06:30  GMT Today's Analysis. EURUSD holding below first resistance at 1.1610/20 targets 1.1580 & 1.1540/30. A break below 1.1520 is an important medium term sell signal. A break above 1.1620 however can target resistance at 1.1665/75.  Next we look for a test of minor resistance at 1.1690/99. Exit longs & try shorts with stops above 1.1720. USDCAD same levels apply for today with first resistance at 1.2420/40. Shorts here stop above 1.2450. Be ready to buy a break above 1.2450 targeting 1.2510/30. Shorts at 1.2420/40 target 1.2370 then support at 1.2300/1.2280. Longs here need stops below 1.2270 for a sell signal. GBPCAD shorts at first resistance at 1.7050/70 worked perfectly on the collapsed to our targets of 1.6950/40 & 1.6910/1.6890 for an easy 150 pip profit yesterday. Ultimately we are looking for the target of 1.6870/60, perhaps as far as support at 1.6800/1.6780. We can try shorts again at first resistance at 1.7050/70 but must stop above 1.7090. A break higher is a buy signal targeting a selling opportunity at 1.7155/75 with stops above 1.7195. To subscribe to this daily report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk GBPUSD high for the day exactly at resistance at 1.3835/55 so far this week followed by a test of support at 1.3740/30, but we over ran to 1.3707. EURGBP longs at important 200 week moving average support at 8405/8395 worked perfectly on the bounce to first resistance at 8455/65 for profit taking. Shorts here are also working as I write. GBPNZD breaks important support at 1.9180/70 for a sell signal. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. GBPUSD first support at 1.3740/20 but be ready to sell a break below 1.3700 targeting 1.3670/60, perhaps as far as strong support at 1.3600/1.3580. Any longs at support at 1.3740/20 target 1.3770/80, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 1.3835/55. This remains key to direction in severely overbought conditions. Try shorts again with stops above 1.3875. A break above here is a medium term buy signal. EURGBP longs at important 200 week moving average support at 8405/8395 work on the bounce to first resistance at 8455/65 for profit taking. Shorts need stops above 8475. A break higher targets 8500. Shorts at first resistance at 8455/65 are working as we target 8440 before a retest of important 200 week moving average support at 8405/8395. Longs need stops below 8380. A break lower is a medium term sell signal. GBPNZD break below support at 1.9180/70 is a sell signal targeting 1.9110/00. First resistance at 1.9170/90. Shorts need stops above 1.9210.
Intraday Market Analysis – EUR Builds Up Bullish Reveal - 29.10.2021

Intraday Market Analysis – EUR Builds Up Bullish Reveal - 29.10.2021

Jing Ren Jing Ren 29.10.2021 09:04
The euro surges as the market prices in inflation pressure despite the ECB’s dovish message. Bullish candles have pushed the single currency above the triple top (1.1665) which sits on the 30-day moving average, paving the way for a reversal. Strong momentum is a sign of short-covering from those caught on the wrong side of the market. An overbought RSI could temporarily limit the range of the rally. However, renewed optimism may send the pair to the daily resistance at 1.1750. 1.1620 is the support in case of a pullback. USDJPY tests demand zone The Japanese yen recouped losses after the BOJ sees a weak yen as positive for Japan’s economy. And the US dollar has come under pressure near a four-year high. An overbought RSI on the daily chart points to an overextension. On the hourly level, the pair has found bids around 113.30 near a previous consolidation range. A bearish breakout would test the round number at 113.00, which lies on the 20-day moving average and is critical in safeguarding the uptrend. The bulls need to lift 114.30 before they may resume the rally. US 30 pulls backs for support The Dow Jones consolidates as investors digest earnings near the all-time high. A breakout above the August peak at 35600 and a bullish MA cross from the daily timeframe indicate an acceleration on the upside as the rally continues. Pullbacks could be an opportunity to buy low. An overbought RSI has triggered a minor sell-off below 35600, shaking out weaker hands in the process. A drop below 35450 would lead to the psychological level of 35000. 35830 is now a fresh resistance.
Article by Decrypt Media

Dollar’s 2021 Rally – Over or Just Resting?

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 17.12.2021 11:21
With the USD Index suffering a ‘sell the news’ event on Dec. 15, the FOMC’s hawkish Summary of Economic Projections wasn’t enough to uplift investors’ optimism. However, while the dollar day traders performed their usual disappearing act, the greenback’s fundamentals were bolstered by the FOMC’s median projection of three rate hikes in 2022. What’s more, while the USD Index initially dipped below 96 and fell below its rising resistance line (which is now support) on Dec. 16, buyers stepped in, and the USD Index bounced. For context, a short-term correction is possible. However, the important point is that the USD Index is likely on a medium-term path to ~98. And with gold, silver and mining stocks often moving inversely to the U.S. dollar, their optimism may disappear over the next few months. Please see below: For context, I warned that a consolidation was likely overdue by highlighting the USD Index’s overbought RSI (Relative Strength Index) readings with the red arrows above. Conversely, the blue vertical dashed lines above demonstrate how the USD Index often bottoms near the end of each month, and rallies often follow. And while the current consolidation may need some more time to run its course, higher highs should materialize over the medium term. To explain, after the USD Index recorded sharp rallies in June and July, consolidation phases unfolded before the uptrends continued. And while the secondary uprisings occurred at more moderate paces, the USD Index still managed to make new highs. As a result, ~98 should materialize during the winter months. Furthermore, if the forecast proves prescient, the USD Index’s strength will likely usher gold back to its previous 2021 lows. Adding to our confidence (don’t get me wrong, there are no certainties in any market; it’s just that the bullish narrative for the USDX is even more bullish in my view), the USD Index often sizzles in the summer sun and major USDX rallies often start during the middle of the year. Summertime spikes have been mainstays on the USD Index’s historical record and in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2018 a retest of the lows (or close to them) occurred before the USD Index began its upward flights (which is exactly what’s happened this time around). Furthermore, profound rallies (marked by the red vertical dashed lines below) followed in 2008, 2011 and 2014. With the current situation mirroring the latter, a small consolidation on the long-term chart is exactly what occurred before the USD Index surged in 2014. Likewise, the USD Index recently bottomed near its 50-week moving average; an identical development occurred in 2014. More importantly, though, with bottoms in the precious metals market often occurring when gold trades in unison with the USD Index (after ceasing to respond to the USD’s rallies with declines), we’re still far away from that milestone in terms of both price and duration. Again, the recent move higher in the USD Index doesn’t necessarily apply in the case of the above rule, as it was not the strength of the USD but the weakness in the euro that has driven it. Likewise, with the USD Index now approaching its long-term rising support line (which is now resistance), a rally above the upward sloping black line above would invalidate the prior breakdown and support a move back above 100. Also, please note that the recent medium-term rally has been calmer than any major upswing witnessed over the last 20 years, where the USD Index’s RSI has hit 70. I marked the recent rally in the RSI with an orange rectangle, and I did the same with the second-least and third-least volatile of the medium-term upswings. The sharp rallies in 2008 and 2014 were of much larger magnitudes. And in those historical analogies, the USD Index continued its surge for some time without suffering any material corrections. As a result, the short-term outlook is more of a coin flip. However, the medium-term outlook remains profoundly bullish, and gold, silver, and mining stocks may resent the USD Index’s forthcoming uprising. Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices (or the ones of silver) here is likely not a good idea. Continuing the theme, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie. And with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the wind remains at the dollar’s back. Furthermore, dollar bears often miss the forest through the trees: with the USD Index’s long-term breakout gaining steam, the implications of the chart below are profound. And while very few analysts cite the material impact (when was the last time you saw the USDX chart starting in 1985 anywhere else?), the USD Index has been sending bullish signals for years. Please see below: The bottom line? With my initial 2021 target of 94.5 already hit, the ~98 target is likely to be reached over the medium term (and perhaps quite soon), mind, though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters. In conclusion, gold, silver and mining stocks pulled rabbits out of their hats on Dec. 16. However, as 2021 has demonstrated, their daily tricks often lose their allure fairly quickly. Moreover, while it’s uncommon for magicians to reveal their secrets, the precious metals tip their hands time and time again. As a result, the USD Index’s daily weakness was likely a corrective downswing, while the precious metals daily strength was likely a corrective upswing. And with a reversal of fortunes likely to occur over the medium term, gold, silver and mining stocks may lose their magic touch. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
USDJPY Chart Looks Alike A Stable One, GBPUSD Resembles A Hillock

USDJPY Chart Looks Alike A Stable One, GBPUSD Resembles A Hillock

John Benjamin John Benjamin 19.01.2022 09:01
GBPUSD falls into correction The sterling fell back after a slowdown in Britain’s wage growth in November. Sentiment favors the pound after it rallied above the daily resistance at 1.3700. However, an overbought RSI has cut back buyers’ appetite. A break below 1.3630 has prompted some traders to take profit, driving down the price. As the RSI dips into the oversold zone, 1.3570 is the next support. A bearish breakout would send the pair to 1.3480 which sits on the 30-day moving average. 1.3660 is the immediate resistance when a rebound takes shape. USDJPY struggles to bounce The yen softened after the Bank of Japan signaled no shift in its ultra-loose monetary policy. The US dollar bounced off the critical floor at 113.50 from the daily chart. A bullish RSI divergence revealed a deceleration in the downward impetus. The indicator’s oversold situation also attracted a number of bargain hunters. A break above 114.70 suggests a strong interest in keeping the correction in check. 115.50 from the latest sell-off is a major hurdle and its breach could extend the rally to the recent peak at 116.30. SPX 500 to test daily support The S&P 500 extended losses over rising rate worries. The fall below 4640 invalidates the latest rebound and indicates that sentiment is still downbeat. Below the psychological level of 4600, 4540 is a key support near last December’s lows on the daily chart. A bearish breakout would trigger a deeper correction towards 4400, the origin of the October rally. An oversold RSI may cause a limited rebound. Nonetheless, the bulls need to clear offers around 4675 and then 4745 to gain momentum.
WTI Oil Shows Signs of Short-Term Uptrend Amid Medium-Term Uptrend Phase

Despite The Year The Stock Market Has Seen, One Asset Has Succeeded: The US Dollar.

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 10.05.2022 14:37
Summary: The US Dollar's resilience in the current economic world. The future of the greenback is unknown.   Read next: (DOGE) Dogecoin and Musk - How Elon Musk Has Single Handedly Created Price Changes In This Memecoin.    Whilst almost all other assets on the stock market have lost value this year, there is one asset that has done well; the US Dollar. Since the start of the year the USD has strengthened continually against most other currencies, this is demonstrated in the graph below, where we see the gradual strengthening of the US Dollar over the past five months. This year in the stock markets has been challenging, with the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine, the adverse weather conditions all over the world, the lockdowns in China as the Chinese government works toward the zero-Covid goal, the rising inflation and prices, the concerns over a looming recession and more. Despite these factors, the US Dollar has still seen strength, this indicates the confidence that market participants have in the US economy to overcome these challenges. Where the currency will go in the future is uncertain, the volatility of the forex market is always keeping investors on their toes. The next big possible turning point is the U.S CPI report due on Wednesday, this will indicate whether the hawkish fed have been successful in their fight against rising prices and inflation. EUR/USD Price Chart   Read next: Shell (SHEL) Stock Price Soars Along With The Rest Of The Industry.    Sources: finance.yahoo.com
Pound rises despite Boris turmoil

(EUR/USD) USD Continues To Rally, (EUR/GBP) Pound Sterling Unlikely To See Relief, (EUR/CHF, AUD/NZD) - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 12.05.2022 11:57
Summary: The US Dollar continues to rally in the wake of the U.S CPI report. GBP is likely to see currency value weaken in the future. Market participants expect to see some strength in the EUR. Is the AUD starting to lose momentum? Read next: (EUR/USD) German Inflation Meets Forecasts, Pound Sterling Continues To Weaken (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD), (EUR/JPY) Japanese Yen Strengthens As Investors Seek Safe-Haven Assets - Good Morning Forex!  The US Dollar continues to strengthen against the EUR   The market is signalling bearish market sentiment for the EUR/USD currency pair. During early trading on Thursday the US Dollar strengthened to a two-decade high after U.S inflation remained high. The U.S CPI report revealed that although inflation could likely have reached its peak, it is still high and the Fed’s current aggressive tightening of monetary policy is likely to remain aggressive. This is causing the US Dollar to strengthen even further against the EURO. EUR/USD Price Chart Pound Sterling is likely to continue to weaken. The market sentiment for this currency pair is showing bullish signals. However, during early trading on Thursday the price of this currency pair has lost value. Going forward it is likely that the market will see a Pound Sterling that continues to weaken in the wake of rising prices and inflation. The combination of a government unwilling to help and an inflation-weary UK public are two factors that will contribute to the further weakening of the GBP. In addition, it is expected that the Pound Sterling is likely to fall further against the Euro and USD as the economic outlook in the UK deteriorates and prompts the Bank of England (BoE) to ease the rising interest rates. EUR/GBP Price Chart EUR expected to strengthen against CHF The market sentiment for this currency pair is showing bullish signals. Investors expect the EUR to strengthen against the CHF. Market participants expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates for the first time in more than 10 years in the summer. Whilst the Swiss National Bank (SNB) remains dovish in their fight against inflation. EUR/CHF Price Chart NZD strengthens slightly against the AUD After the National Australia Bank (NAB) increased their interest rates early in May, the AUD/NZD currency pair increased in value. The momentum for this move has somewhat slowed since then. However, the pair still seems to be showing volatility. AUD/NZD Price Chart Read next: (EUR/USD) Wall Street Tanks, Allowing the Euro To Slightly Recover, (EUR/GBP) Goldman Sachs Betting Against GBP, JPY Gets The Better Of The US Dollar And EUR - Good Morning Forex!  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Steel majors invest in green steel, but change might be driven by contenders

EUR Falls To US Dollar (EUR/USD), Pound Sterling Due To Weaken As UK Recession Looms (EUR/GBP), Market Awaits Fed Meeting Minutes (USD/CHF, GBP/USD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 25.05.2022 18:27
Summary: EU PPI inflation data caused the Euro to weaken on Wednesday. Investor sentiment looks poor towards the GBP going into summer. Pound Sterling recovers against the US Dollar. Read next: Hawkish ECB Bodes Well For The Euro, UK PMI Data Disappoints (EUR/GBP), Hawkish SNB Offers Swiss Franc Still Support (USD/CHF), AUD/JPY - Good Morning Forex!  A rise in PPI inflation data causes Euro weaken Market sentiment is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. Looking at the value of the Euro in terms of PPI and CPI data: the rise in PPI inflation in the euro area reduced the Euros fair value estimate, whereas the European CPI inflation data remains close to that of the US CPI inflation. Therefore, it is the release of PPI inflation data that has caused the Euro to lose more than 0.6% to the US Dollar on Wednesday. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP weakens as concerns of a recession looms The market is reflecting mixed market sentiment for this currency pair. Investors expect the Pound Sterling to have a tough summer period. The slowing UK economy and disappointing PMI data are both aspects that will likely cause the GBP to weaken not only against the Euro but against other currencies too. The market is defaulting to buying Euros and selling Great British Pounds in the wake of changing European Central Bank (ECB) policy. EUR/GBP Price Chart Swiss Franc The market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting mixed market signals. During the trading week last week, the US Dollar weakened against the Swiss Franc due to the hawkish attitude shown by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and investors desire for safe-haven assets. This sentiment has continued into the current trading week. USD/CHF Price Chart GBP recovers against the USD The GBP strengthened against the US Dollar on Wednesday as the market awaited the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes. Investors are eager to see how aggressively the Fed will raise interest rates going forward in an attempt to tackle rising inflation. Investor sentiment is negative toward the US Dollar at the moment, which has given some currencies, such as the GBP, an opportunity to recover. The market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bullish signals. GBP/USD Price Chart Read next: ECB Offering The Euro Support (EUR/USD), Strengthening Of The Renminbi Supporting The EUR and GBP, SNB Turns Hawkish (EUR/CHF) - Good Morning Forex!  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
The Euro Opened Strong On Wednesday Against The US Dollar (EUR/USD), Euro Could Continue Gaining On The GBP (EUR/GBP), Australia’s Trade Balance Beats Market Expectations (AUD/USD), EUR/JPY

The Euro Opened Strong On Wednesday Against The US Dollar (EUR/USD), Euro Could Continue Gaining On The GBP (EUR/GBP), Australia’s Trade Balance Beats Market Expectations (AUD/USD), EUR/JPY

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 02.06.2022 18:31
Summary: The euro opened strong on Wednesday in the wake of U.S treasury yields surging. Inflation for the eurozone hit record levels in April. The Australian Dollar has been unmoved by an outstanding trade balance that beat market expectations. EUR/JPY Read next: EuroZone Inflation Exceeds Market Expectations (EUR/USD) (EUR/GBP), New Zealand Economy Will Benefit From China’s Lockdown Easing (GBP/NZD), GBP Bullish (GBP/USD)  Euro and US Dollar The market is reflecting mixed market signals for this currency pair. The euro opened strong on Wednesday in the wake of U.S treasury yields surging. The U.S economic data that has been released this week has been strong, which has given the market confidence around the hiking cycle. This sentiment comes in contrast to last week's sentiment of an overconfident Federal Reserve. The eurozone is under pressure in the wake of the Russian oil embargo with the possibility of Russia retaliating by potentially cutting off gas from the region, which may aggravate an already bad inflation situation and risk downside potential for the euro. EUR/USD Price Chart Eurozone inflation hit record highs The market is reflecting mixed market signals for this currency pair. Inflation for the eurozone hit record levels in April, this means that it may be more likely that the European Central Bank (ECB) may implement a 50 basis point rate hike before the year-end. If this were to go through, it could underscore the Euro’s already steady rebound against the US Dollar and the Pound Sterling. EUR/GBP Price Chart Australian Dollar benefitting from a trade balance that beat expectations The market is reflecting bullish market signals for this currency pair. The Australian Dollar has been unmoved by an outstanding trade balance that beat market expectations. In addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published their commodity price index (CPI) that accounts for the composition of Australian commodity exports yesterday. AUD/USD Price Chart The Japanese Yen weakened The market is reflecting mixed market signals for this currency pair. The Japanese data revealed a jobless rate that exceeded market expectations, but retail sales stayed at 0.8% for April. The mood was then turned bad with a miss in industrial production. It was anticipated at -0.2% but came in at -1.3% for the month of April. The Japanese Yen weakened on this news as well as the higher oil price taking its toll on the energy importing economy. EUR/JPY Price Chart   Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
The American Dollar's Unyielding Strength Amidst Market Surprises and Economic Divergence

The American Dollar's Unyielding Strength Amidst Market Surprises and Economic Divergence

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.09.2023 14:06
The time is coming when the strongest trend is coming to an end. But this does not apply to the American dollar. In 2021, it strengthened due to expectations of monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve, and in 2022, due to its implementation. In 2023, investors expected the trend in the USD index to be broken. And at first, everything was going according to plan. However, in the summer, there was a 180-degree turnaround, which came as a real surprise to hedge funds. They remain short sellers of the American currency and are losing money.   Dynamics of the U.S. dollar and hedge fund positionsej     The September survey of Reuters experts suggests that in the short term, "bears" on EUR/USD will maintain their strength due to a strong economy and high U.S. Treasury bond yields. However, over the next three months, the euro will rise to $1.09. In 6 months, it will be worth $1.10, and in 12 months, $1.12. This forecast is based on the idea of a dovish pivot and the central bank's move towards reducing federal funds rates. Derivatives indicate that it will drop by 100 basis points in 2024. The same opinion was held about the U.S. dollar at the beginning of the year, but its opponents were proven wrong. At that time, investors were worried about a recession.   It was supposed to force the Federal Reserve to loosen its monetary policy. In the early autumn, markets began to fear not an economic downturn but its overheating. If the United States maintains its strength, inflation could accelerate, prompting the Federal Reserve to return to monetary tightening and further strengthen the American dollar. If we also consider that the American economy is the cleanest shirt in the basket of dirty laundry, the decline in EUR/USD seems logical. Indeed, following new manufacturing orders in Germany, German industrial production disappointed.   In July, it contracted by 0.8%. The leading economy in the eurozone has still not emerged from the slump. Is it surprising that the GDP of the currency bloc grew by only 0.1% in the second quarter? Less than the 0.3% in the initial estimate.     Thus, if in 2021-2022, the focus in the Forex market was on monetary policy and fear of high inflation, in 2023, they gave way to economic growth divergence. Judging by the strong labor market positions and the surge in business activity in the services sector to a six-month high, the U.S. GDP in the third quarter may expand by 3% or more. What's the point of selling the dollar? It's much more interesting to acquire securities denominated in it. The capital flow to North America has supported and will continue to support the "bears" on EUR/USD.     The ECB, on the other hand, can only sympathize. On the one hand, the European Central Bank is obliged to maintain "hawkish" rhetoric in the face of inflation exceeding 5%. On the other hand, the higher the interest rates rise, the greater the chances of a recession in the eurozone economy. Technically, on the daily chart of EUR/USD, the inability of the "bulls" to hold onto the key pivot level of 1.0715 indicates their weakness. The decline of the pair to 1.066 and 1.0595 continues. The recommendation is to hold shorts.  

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