amazon

2023 key highlights & cross-assets performances in the past 2 years

Fig 1: Cross assets performances as of 29 Dec 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

 

    The story of Amazon and Apple

    The story of Amazon and Apple

    Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 29.10.2021 12:51
    Amazon and Apple disappoint investors as supply issues persist Yesterday's aftermarket announcement from the two mega cap giants surprised investors as both Apple and Amazon showed lower than expected results and disappointing figures. Both companies missed their revenue expectations and indicated supply chain issues as key issues facing their business, while highlighting the need to be cautious as the situation is resolved moving forward. Both stocks dropped over 3% in aftermarket trading and impacted US futures, which shortly before that managed to reach new all time highs, boosted in part by the positive performance seen from other mega caps throughout the week. While US indices hover around key levels, It will be important to see how they react to today's earnings from major oil companies (Exxon, Chevron) as further disappointment could lead to an even larger correction heading into the weekend.  Euro holds steady after mixed European GDP data  Today's GDP data from Europe proved to be mixed, with the French reading surprising to the upside while Spanish figures missed expectations. Data from Germany and Italy also was mixed as the Italian economy, just like the French one, grew much faster than expected in the July-September period while the German economy grew slower than expected. This comes after yesterday's disappointing US GDP figures which showed a below expected growth of 2% and highlighted the ongoing issues facing the economy in this stage of the post pandemic recovery. These GDP reports, along with inflation data continue to become increasingly noteworthy as central banks across the world are using these measures to potentially determine whether or not there is an immediate need for intervention as well as influencing future policy. Download our Mobile Trading App:   Google Play   App Store
    European Central Bank and Amazon (AMZN) And Its Earnings

    European Central Bank and Amazon (AMZN) And Its Earnings

    Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 03.02.2022 11:57
    Central bank decisions tend to be significant events in normal circumstances, but today’s decision could prove to be quite interesting for markets as different decisions are expected from each of today’s banks. While the Bank of England is set to raise its rate for the second time and signal further unwinding of its pandemic stimulus, the European central bank is expected to maintain it’s wait and see approach despite record inflation of 5,1% announced in January. According to these predictions, we could be seeing a strengthening of the pound thanks to the 0,5% interest rate, while we could sese a mixed reaction of the Euro as markets remain uncertain about the fragile economic recovery, especially given recent escalations on the Russia-Ukraine border which could destabilize the entire continent. Despite this, any surprises in today’s decisions or announcements could have far reaching effects on both the FX market and equities across Europe and the UK as central bankers struggle to balance record inflation with the post pandemic recovery. Can Amazon’s earnings support US indices? While we have seen a noticeable recovery of global indices over the past several days, yesterday’s disappointing earnings report from Meta (Facebook) saw the stock price drop and weigh on US markets as well as general sentiment. Meta’s results came one day after Alphabet announced it’s positive results and optimistic outlook and despite this mixed sentiment, we are seeing a slight pullback of stock markets as they await another mega-cap report. Amazon’s results could prove to be a significant catalyst for potential movements in the markets as a better than expected result could further boost the recent recovery while a disappointing one could drag markets further down. The company benefited greatly from the recent global situation as demand for its products and services increased noticeably thanks to a solid strategy and cost optimization. On the other hand, like many other companies that benefited from the stay-at-home lifestyle, it remains to be seen if that positive performance has carried over into this new phase.  
    Meta (FB) Has Some Things To Worry About, Amazon (AMZN) And Ford (F) Ahead Of Publishing Their Reports

    Meta (FB) Has Some Things To Worry About, Amazon (AMZN) And Ford (F) Ahead Of Publishing Their Reports

    Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 03.02.2022 12:05
    Yesterday’s ADP data showed that the US economy lost some 300’000 private jobs in December, versus 185’000 job additions expected by analysts, but no one cared. Google jumped by more than 7% yesterday to a fresh record high on the back of strong earnings. Nasdaq gained for the fourth consecutive session adding another 0.50% to its gains. But don’t uncork the champagne just yet! Because the Nasdaq futures are trading more than 2% lower at the time of writing. Disappointing Facebook results, and a 23% plunge in Meta shares in the afterhours trading calls for a red session in the US. Amazon is the last FAANG stock to announce earnings today, and the company is expected to reveal a second consecutive month of earnings decline. Ouch. Inflation in the Eurozone hit 5.1% in December. So, all eyes are on Christine Lagarde and what she has to say at today’s press conference. Will she insist that inflation is transitory or will she finally accept the defeat, and call it a problem? Across the Channel, the Brits will probably raise their interest rates by another 25bp for the second time at today’s meeting. Elsewhere, OPEC maintained its production increase target at 400’000 barrels per day and the consensus is a further advance in crude oil to $100pb in the foreseeable future. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:36 Market update 2:23 Facebook plunges 20% post-results 3:40 Amazon to reveal another earnings decline 5:03 European inflation puts pressure on ECB 7:12 BoE to raise rates for the second time 8:16 OPEC raises output slowly, only Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
    Mid-Market Update: Global PMIs collapse, Relief Rally will be tested next week, Mixed Earnings, Oil finds support, Gold shines, Bitcoin steadies

    Paying In Crypto On (AMZN) Amazon!? CEO Speaks His Mind! Bitcoin (BTC) And Ether (ETH) Have Gone Down Over Last 24 Hours!

    Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.04.2022 08:33
    Bitcoin was down 3.4% on Thursday, ending the day near $39.9K, although it managed to bounce back above $40.1K by Friday morning, cutting the intraday decline to 2.8%. Ethereum has lost 2.5% in the last 24 hours, and other leading altcoins from the top ten are predominantly declining, from -1% (BNB) to -7.3% (Terra). The exception was XRP, which added 5.4% during this time. BTC can develop a reversalAccording to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 2.8% per day, to $1.87 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index fell by 0.3% to 40.7%. By Friday, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index returned to the extreme fear territory, losing 6 points to 22. US stocks failed to build on the offensive, losing all of the previous day's gains, leading to a stronger selloff for bitcoin compared to alternative cryptocurrencies. From the technical side, Bitcoin is trading near the support level, which runs through the lows of January, February and March. A formal signal to break the support will be considered a failure under the previous lows in the $38K area. The ability to develop a reversal to the offensive from these levels, on the contrary, will reinforce the importance of this moderate uptrend line. Crypto newsThe head of Ripple noted that the court with the SEC is going “much better than expected,” which provoked a wave of XRP growth, allowing the coin to resist gravity. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said that the largest asset management company continues to study the cryptocurrency sector. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said that the company has no plans to introduce payments in cryptocurrency in the near future, although it is exploring the possibilities of digital assets. At the same time, he looks to the future of cryptocurrencies and NFTs with interest and optimism. The Bank of Canada is exploring scenarios for the coexistence of digital and fiat currencies, the first regulator to decide to use quantum computing for this study. Bank of Japan chief executive Shinichi Uchida said the upcoming digital yen will not be used to achieve a negative interest rate. The second stage of the launch of the digital yen started on March 24th this year.
    Key Support Levels in Forex Pairs: EURUSD, GBPUSD, and EURGBP

    (APPL) Apple Earnings and (AMZN) Amazon Earnings Are Due To Be Announced! What To Expect?

    Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 28.04.2022 11:38
    Summary: Apple stock prices are facing pressure amidst lockdown in China causing concerns over supply. Amazon stock prices are being heavily affected by current market sentiment. Apple stock prices are declining despite investor confidence in their Q1 earnings announcements. In general market sentiment is showing bearish signals, but this negative sentiment is lying heavily on BigTech stocks, this sentiment runs so deep that buying BigTech stocks almost makes sense. According to some analysts, the sentiment on tech stocks is so bad at the moment that there has to be an end in sight coming soon. After the market close today, we can expect Apple (APPL) to announce their earnings reports. After the market close today, we can expect Apple (APPL) to announce their earnings reports. The Apple stocks have been falling drastically over the past week inlight of uncertainty around the lockdowns in China and how they will affect the second quarter's earnings. However, investors do expect the earnings from Apple’s first quarter to be favourable. APPL Stock Price Chart Read next: Zuckerberg Didn't Shock Market! Meta Platforms Inc. (FB) Q1 Earnings Announcement Expected Whilst GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Delivers Favorable Figures  Amazon (AMZN) earnings report due later today. There is a lot of weight that has been riding on the tech companies earnings announcements this week, with amazon due to make their earnings announcements later today along with Apple, the market sentiment is bearish. Even if all the Q1 earnings announcements from the BigTech companies were favourable (which has not been the case), the market would still struggle to recover from the current negative sentiment. Over the past week the price of Amazon's stock has been falling over the past week inlight of the negative market sentiment. With the employees from one of the warehouses of Amazon lobbying to unionise, increasing prices and supply problems could be indications of potential earnings struggles for this tech giant. Amazon.com Price Chart Read next: (MSFT) Microsoft and (GOOGL) Alphabet's (Google) Earnings Announcements Due Later Today  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, barrons.com, fastcompany.com
    The Trade Off - 31/03/22

    Amazon (AMZN) And Apple (APPL) Post Earnings Announcement Performance. Elon Musk Moves On To Coca-Cola!?

    Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 29.04.2022 10:44
    Summary: Amazon causes poor investor sentiment. Apple shocks the market. Musk going after Coca-Cola next?? Amazon (AMZN) stock prices show improving investor confidence despite disappointing revenue forecasts. During post market trading yesterday, the AMZN share price fell by almost 10%. This fall comes after the tech giant made its earnings announcement, this was because the earnings missed investor forecasts. The slightly disappointing revenue in Q1 of Amazon came as a result, amongst other things, of a decrease in consumer spending online and a return to in-person-activities. Amazon attributed its disappointing earnings to the current adverse economic conditions partly coming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and partly from the issues around supply chains. Their earnings increase is 37% lower (Q1 2022: 7%, Q1 2021: 44%) than this time last year and their EPS has fallen by 0.84 cents for the same time period. AMZN Share Price Chart Read next: (APPL) Apple Earnings and (AMZN) Amazon Earnings Are Due To Be Announced! What To Expect?  Apple earnings announcement left investors feeling bullish Apple share prices increase inlight of favorable earnings reported by the tech giant. The earnings reported were better than the market expected. Although the Q1 earnings for Apple are causing the share price to increase, concerns still remain around the future supply chains of this tech giant, they can be heavily impacted by China’s “zero-covid” policy and its lockdowns. APPL Share Price Chart Elon Musk targeting Coca-Cola next? On Wednesday night Elon Musk posted a tweet on his platform suggesting or joking about acquiring the Coca-Cola company, this comes after his offer to buy Twitter (TWTR) was approved by the board. Musks tweet was as follows “Next I’m buying Coca-Cola to put the cocaine back in”. Although many of the world’s richest man's followers saw the tweet as a joke, there was a time when people thought his quest for TWTR was a joke too. The tweet caused Coca-Cola’s share price to drop hugely, the price has since recovered, but what does the future hold for this beverage giant ? KO Share Price Chart Read next: Zuckerberg Didn't Shock Market! Meta Platforms Inc. (FB) Q1 Earnings Announcement Expected Whilst GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Delivers Favorable Figures  Sources: dailyfx.com, Finance.yahoo.com
    Steady BoE Rate Expectations Amid Empty Event Calendar in the UK

    European telecoms outlook for 2022 | ING Economics

    ING Economics ING Economics 19.05.2022 08:53
    After years of heavy pressure on revenues in the telecom sector, we make a call for near-term revenue stabilisation. From an operational perspective, the main themes for the telecom sector are the build-out of 5G and fibre networks. To improve the relative position of the sector regulators should review their measures to provide a more level playing field Source: Shutterstock War has a limited impact on the telecom sector European- and US-based telecom operators are rather insulated from the conflict in Ukraine. Major operators have no sales in the region, the exception being VEON, which is largely exposed, since it is active in Russia and Ukraine. Telekom Austria had only 7.4% of its FY 2021 revenues coming from Belarus. For now, the impact of the war seems limited, with most companies maintaining their 2022 outlook. Typically, demand for telecom services grows in line with GDP. If a severe recession would hit the global economy, telecom operators and handset vendors probably have to adjust revenue expectations in line with GDP expectations, on average. In Europe, however, service revenues have historically already been under pressure because of strong competition. We do not foresee a substantial impact on the financial solidity of companies resulting from this crisis. The biggest risk for the sector comes from cyberwarfare The biggest risk for the sector comes from cyberwarfare. State sponsored hackers could engage at some point in cyberwarfare, something the US government warns about. Hackers could try to impair (local) infrastructure, while telecom companies have to up their defenses. Interestingly, so far, we have seen limited impact from cyberwarfare that could possibly have been initiated as a part of the war in Ukraine. However, we are starting to see revenue stabilisation in a couple of markets. For example, the market leaders in the Dutch, French, Belgian and German markets are close to revenue stabilisation. This is mainly driven by new broadband products, which are often offered with mobile services in a bundled product. Restructuring programmes continue to modernise the back-office of the operators and to phase out legacy technologies. Once programmes are over, this could be a tailwind for profitability. Despite good traction from bundled products and new high ARPU fibre products, many incumbents have segments that see price pressure, often in the business segments. This explains why we see positive trends in the sector, while revenues are not showing strong positive growth rates. Domestic revenue trends European telecom operators Source: Company, ING Aiming for a level playing field The European Commission aims for gigabit broadband for all households as well as for a fast 5G mobile connection in populated areas, which should be reached by 2030. It also aims to rein in some large technology companies. It has published proposals for the Digital Services Act (DSA) and the Digital Markets Act (DMA) which should reduce the dominance of the large technology platforms and create a level playing field with other sectors in Europe. The EU member states and European Parliament said they welcome the proposals. These are now subject to formal approval by the two co-legislators before they will be applicable. Hopefully, the competitive position of telecom companies will improve as well at some point in the future. Competition has been promoted... and this has lowered prices for telecom services as well Regulation has seriously impaired the profitability of telecom companies through tariff measures (for broadband wholesale access and roaming tariffs). Competition has been promoted, with four mobile operators in many European countries. This has lowered prices for telecom services as well. Governments have raised a lot of money through spectrum auctions and often incentivised new operators entering the market. Finally, product differentiation has been difficult because of net neutrality regulations. As a consequence, free cash flow has been under pressure from both weaker revenues, as well as heavy investments and dividends. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM A case in point is Telecom Italia, which had a solid investment grade rating in 2005, but is now rated in high yield territory. The Italian market is characterised by heavy competition, while the company explains that its fixed network faces relatively high regulatory pressure from a multitude of measures. The company faces substantial pressure on revenues, as can be seen in the figure above. The interim result is that the company is investigating a break-up, having ramifications for the speed of the broadband roll-out in Italy. The downward pressure on credit ratings has been more widespread in the European telecom sector since most companies have already seen rating downgrades. This is illustrated in the table below. Downward rating pressure for European telecom operators Source: S&P Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM As a result, telecom companies have been at the wrong spot in the value chain, while companies that sell telecom equipment, media content or cloud storage have performed very well, as is shown in the figure below. While large technology companies have the means to invest in new (transatlantic) fibre networks, incumbents often can’t fund all of their network investments from their cash flows. In our opinion regulators should pay attention to a call by the European Telecom Network Organisation (ETNO) in which they ask for a fair contribution for the network investment costs from companies that extensively use broadband networks. Since 2015, unregulated firms did profit from internet with market cap. growth Source: Refinitiv Sector trends contribute to revenue stability Nevertheless, broadband connectivity will likely improve across Europe and 5G is here to stay. The private sector is investing heavily, but there are also plans to invest €13bn in digital connectivity as part of the European Resilience and Recovery Plan. Typically, customer retention is relatively healthy for fibre products, especially when combined in a fixed-mobile converged offer. Net mobile networks and services could also contribute to the goal of revenue stability and eventually growing revenues. This year, 5G products and services will likely become widespread. However, it will be key for mobile operators to find good pricing policies for these new 5G services.   Read this article on THINK TagsTelecom sector European telecoms Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
    Walmart And Home Depot Did Better Than Expected. S&P 500 Reaches The 4,3k Level

    Walmart And Home Depot Did Better Than Expected. S&P 500 Reaches The 4,3k Level

    Saxo Strategy Team Saxo Strategy Team 17.08.2022 08:35
    Summary:  S&P500 index broke above the key 4,300 resistance level while the NASDAQ pushed lower amid mixed economic data and better-than-feared earnings from Walmart and Home Depot. US housing data continues to worsen, but the focus now turns to FOMC minutes due later today, as well as the US retail sales which will be next test of the strength of the US consumer. Asia session may have trouble finding a clear direction, but Australia’s wage price index and RBNZ’s rate hike may help to provide some bounce. What is happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I)  U.S. equities were mixed. Tech names had an initial pullback, followed by short-coverings that narrowed the loss of the Nasdaq 100 to 0.23% at the close. S&P500 edged up 0.19% to 4,305 on better-than-feared results from retailers, moving towards its 200-day moving average (4,326). Walmart (WMT:xnys) and Home Depot (HD:xnys) reported Q2 results beating analyst estimates. Walmart gained 5% on strong same-store sales growth and a deceleration in inventory growth. Home Depot climbed 4% after reporting better than expected EPS and same-store sales but with an acceleration in inventory buildup. The declines in housing starts and building permits released on Monday and the downbeat comments about the U.S. housing market from the management of Compass (COMP:xnys), an online real estate brokerage, highlighted the challenges faced in the housing sector.  Short-end U.S. treasury yields rose as the long-end little changed The bigger than expected increases in July industrial production (+0.6% MoM), manufacturing production (+0.7% MoM), and business equipment production (+0.6%) triggered some selling in the short-end of U.S. treasury curve, pushing the 2-year yield 8 bps higher to 3.25% as 10-year yield edged up 1bp.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIQ2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) China internet stocks were sold off on Tuesday afternoon after Reuters ran a story suggesting that Tencent (00700:xhkg) plans to divest its 17% stake (USD24 billion) in Meituan (03690:xhkg).  The shares of Meituan collapsed 9% while Tencent gained 0.9%.  After the close of the Hong Kong market, Chinese media, citing sources “close to the matter” suggested that the divesture story is not true. However, the ADRs of Meituan managed to recover only 1.7% in New York trading. The newswire story also triggered selling on Kuaishou (01024:xhkg), -4.4%, which has Tencent as a major investor. The decline in internet stocks dragged the Hang Seng Index 1% lower. On the other hand, Chinese developers soared on another newswire report that state-owned China Bond Insurance is going to provide guarantees to new onshore debts issued by several “high quality” developers, including Country Garden (02007:xhkg) +9%, Longfor (00960:xhkg) +12%, CIFI (00884:xhkg) +12.9%, and Seazen (01030:xhkg) +7.6%.  Shares of Chinese property management services also surged higher.  GBPUSD bounced off the 1.2000 support, NZD eyeing RBNZ A mixed overnight session for FX as the US yields wobbled. Risk sentiment held up with the mixed US data accompanied by a less bad outcome in the US retailer earnings than what was expected. This made the safe-haven yen a clear underperformer, and USDJPY rose back above 134. But a clear trend in the pair is still missing and a break above 135 is needed to reverse the downtrend. Cable got lower to remain in close sight of the 1.2000 big figure, but rose above 1.2100 subsequently. UK CPI report due today may confirm the need for further BOE action after labor data showed wage pressures. NZDUSD remains near lows of 0.6320 but may see a knee-jerk higher if RBNZ surprises on the hawkish side. Crude oil prices (CLU2 & LCOV2) Crude oil prices remain under pressure due to the prospect of Iran nuclear deal, and printed fresh lows since the Ukraine invasion. Some respite was seen in early Asian session, and WTI futures were last seen at $87/barrel and Brent is below $93. The EU submitted a final proposal to salvage the Iran nuclear deal, and prospects of more energy supply are dampening the price momentum. It has been reported that Iran’s response was constructive, and they are now consulting with the US on a way ahead for the protracted talks. The API reported crude inventories fell by 448,000 barrels last week, while gasoline stockpiles increased by more than 4 million barrels. Government data is due later Wednesday. European Dutch TTF benchmark gas futures (TTFMU2) touched €250/MWh, but has cooled off slightly recently, but still signals the heavy price that Europe is paying for the dependence on Russian gas. Copper holding up well despite China slowdown concerns Despite reports of weaker financing and activity data from China earlier this week, Copper remains well supported and registered only modest declines. BHP’s results provided some offset, as did the supply side issues in Europe. Only a break below the key 350 support will turn the focus lower. Meanwhile, zinc rallied amid concerns of smelter closures in Europe. What to consider? US housing scare broadens, industrial production upbeat Housing starts fell 9.6% in July to 1.446 mn, well beneath the prior 1.599 mn and the expected 1.537 mn. Housing starts are now down for five consecutive months, and suggest a cooling housing market in the wake of higher borrowing costs and higher inflation. Meanwhile, building permits declined 1.3% in July to 1.674 mn from 1.696 mn, but printed above the expected 1.65 mn. There will be potentially more scaling back in construction activity as demand weakens and inventory levels rise. On the other hand, industrial production was better than expected at 0.6% m/m (prev: -0.2%) possibly underpinned by holiday demand but the outlook is still murky amid persistent inflation and supply chain issues. US retailer earnings come in better than feared Walmart (WMT:xnys) and Home Depot (HD:xnys) reported better-than-feared results on Tuesday. Walmart’s Q2 revenues came in at USD152.9 billion (+8.4% YoY, consensus USD150.5bn). Same-store sales increased 8.4% YoY (vs consensus +6.0% YoY).  EPS of USD1.77, down 0.8% from a year ago quarter but better than the consensus estimate of USD1.63. While inventories increased 25.5% in Q2, the rate of increase has moderated from the prior quarter’s +32.0%. The company cited falls in gas prices, market share gain in grocery, and back-to-school shopping key reasons behind the strength in sales.  Home Depot reported Q2 revenues of USD43.9 billion (vs consensus USD43.4bn), +6.5% YoY.  Same-store sales grew 5.8%, beating analyst estimates (+4.9%).  EPS rose 11.5% to $5.05, ahead of analyst estimates (USD4.95). However, inventories grew 38% YoY in Q2, which was an acceleration from the prior quarter. The management cited inflation and pulling forward inventory purchases given supply chain challenges as reasons for the larger inventory build-up. Target (TGT:xnys) is scheduled to report on Wednesday. Eyes on US retail sales US retail sales will be next test of the US consumer after less bad retailer earnings last night. Retail sales should have been more resilient given the lower prices at pump improved the spending power of the average American household, and Amazon Prime Day in the month possibly attracted bargain hunters as well. However, consensus expectations are modest at 0.1% m/m compared to last month’s 1.0%. A cooling labor market in the UK UK labor market showed signs of cooling as job vacancies fell for the first time since August 2020 and real wages dropped at the fastest pace in history. Unemployment rate was steady at 3.8%, and the number of people in employment grew by 160,000 in the April-June period as against 256,000 expected. There was also a sprinkle of good news, with the number of employees on payrolls rising 73,000 in July, almost triple the pace expected. Also, wage growth was strong at 4.7% in the June quarter from 4.4% in the three months to May, which may be key for the BOE amid persistent wage pressures. Australia Q2 Wage Index to determine future RBA rate hike size? The RBA Minutes out on Tuesday showed a central bank that is trying to navigate a “narrow path” for keeping the Australian economy on an “even keel”. The RBA has often singled out wages as an important risk for whether inflation risks becoming more embedded and on that note, today sees the release of the Q2 Wage Index, expected to come in at 2.7% year-on-year after 2.4% in Q1. A softer data point may have the market pulling back expectations for another 50 basis point rate hike at the next RBA meeting after the three consecutive moves of that size. The market is about 50-50 on the size of the RBA hike in September, pricing a 35bps move. RBNZ set to decelerate its guidance after another 50 basis point move today? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hike its official cash rate another 50 basis points tonight, taking the policy rate to 3.00%. With business and consumer sentiment surveys in the dumps in New Zealand and oil prices retreating sharply the RBNZ, one of the earliest among developed economies to tighten monetary policy starting late last year, may be set for more cautious forward guidance and a wait and see attitude, although wages did rise in Q2 at their second fastest pace (+2.3% QoQ) in decades. The market is uncertain on the future course of RBNZ policy, pricing 45bps for the October meeting after today’s 50bps hike and another 37bps for the November meeting. FOMC minutes to be parsed for hints on future Fed moves The Federal Reserve had lifted rates by 75bps to bring the Fed Funds rate at the level that they consider is neutral at the July meeting, but stayed away from providing any forward guidance. Meeting minutes will be out today, and member comments will be watched closely for any hints on the expectation for September rate hike or the terminal Fed rate. The hot jobs report and the cooling inflation number has further confused the markets since the Fed meeting, even as Fed speakers continue to push against any expectations of rate cuts at least in ‘early’ 2023. We only have Kansas City Fed President Esther George (voter in 2022) and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (non-voter in 2022) speaking this week at separate events on Thursday, so the bigger focus will remain on Jackson Hole next week for any updated Fed views.   For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: APAC Daily Digest: What is happening in markets and what to consider next – August 17, 2022
    Apple May Surprise Investors. Analysts Advise Caution

    Apple Supplier In China Closing Its Factories! Big European Aluminium Plant Stops Its Production Due To Unfavorable Conditions

    Saxo Strategy Team Saxo Strategy Team 17.08.2022 12:53
      Summary:  The US equity market rally extended modestly yesterday, but turned tail upon the cash S&P 500 Index touching the key 200-day moving average at 4,325. Market today will eye the latest US Retail Sales report from July, which saw peak gasoline prices in the US mid-month, while the FOMC Minutes may prove a bit stale, given they were created before three weeks of the market rallying sharply and financial conditions easing aggressively, likely not the Fed’s intention.   What is our trading focus?   Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures broke above the 200-day moving average yesterday and then got rejected. Momentum in US equities got a bit more fuel from two good earnings releases from Home Depot and Walmart rising 4% and 5% respectively. S&P 500 futures are pushing higher again this morning and will likely attempt once more to break above the 200-day moving average. Long-term US interest rates are still well-behaved trading around the 2.8% level and the VIX Index has stabilised just below the 20 level. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI.I) and China’s CSI300 (000300.I) Hang Seng Index rallied 1% today, reversing yesterday’s loss. Meituan (03690:xhkg) bounced nearly 5% after its 9% drop yesterday due to a Reuters story suggesting that Tencent (00700:xhkg) plans to divest its 17% stake (USD24 billion) in Meituan.  Tencent denied such a divesture plan last night.  Power drills and floor care equipment maker and a supplier to Home Depot (HD:xnys), Techtronic Industries (00669:xhkg) jumped more than 7% after better-than-expected results from Home Depot overnight.  On Tuesday, China’s Premier Li Keqiang held a video conference with provincial chiefs from Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Henan, and Sichuan to reiterate the central government’s push for full use of policies to stabilize the economy.  CSI300 gained 0.6%. USD pairs, including GBPUSD, which bounced strongly off 1.2000 support  A mixed overnight session for FX as the US yields wobbled. Risk sentiment held up with the mixed US data accompanied by a less bad outcome in the US retailer earnings than expected. This made the safe-haven yen a clear underperformer, and USDJPY rose back above 134. But a clear trend in the pair is still missing and a break above 135 is needed to reverse the downtrend. Cable teased key psychological support at 1.2000 yesterday before rising later in the day above 1.2100 ahead of today’s UK CPI report, which may confirm the need for further BOE action after labor data showed wage pressures. EURUSD bounced from session lows at 1.0123 but has posted a recent bearish reversal that keeps the focus lower, particularly on any breakdown through 1.0100, the multi-week range low. USD traders will focus on today’s US Retail Sales and FOMC minutes. USDCNH – there was a brief spike higher in USDCNH earlier this week as China moved to stimulate with a small 10-basis point rate cut of the key lending rate – no drama yet, but traders should keep an eye on this very important exchange rate for larger volatility and significant break above 6.80, as Chines exchange rate policy shifts can provoke significant moves across markets. Crude oil (CLU2 & LCOV2) touched a fresh six-month low on Tuesday with Brent trading lower, in anticipation of the Iran nuclear deal being revived, before bouncing in response to the API reporting a draw in crude oil and especially gasoline stocks. While a deal with Iran could see it raise production by around one million barrels per day, Goldmans talks about a mutually beneficial stalemate for both sides with Iran wanting to avoid sanctions while the US wants to avoid higher oil prices but also the political backlash from a potential deal. EIA’s weekly crude and fuel stocks report on tap later with the market also focusing on gasoline demand and the levels of exports. Over in Europe meanwhile the Dutch TTF benchmark gas trades near an eye-popping $400 per barrel crude oil equivalent, a level that will continue to attract demand for oil-based products due to switching. Copper (COPPERUSSEP22) continues to trade within its established upward trending range after China’s Premier Li Keqiang asked local officials from six provinces to bolster pro-growth measures after weaker financing and activity data were reported earlier this week. In addition, copper is also enjoying some tailwind from rising zinc and aluminum prices after Europe's largest smelters said it would halt production and after producers in China were told to curb production in order to preserve electricity supply during the current heatwave. HG copper’s trading range has narrowed to between $3.585, the uptrend from the July low and $3.663 the 50-day moving average.   What is going on?   US housing scare broadens, industrial production upbeat US Housing starts fell 9.6% in July to an annualized 1,446k, well beneath the prior 1,599 and the expected 1,537k. Housing starts are now down for five consecutive months, and suggest a cooling housing market in the wake of higher borrowing costs and higher inflation. Meanwhile, building permits declined 1.3% in July to 1,674k from 1,696, but printed above the expected 1,650k. There will be potentially more scaling back in construction activity as demand weakens and inventory levels rise. On the other hand, industrial production was better than expected at 0.6% m/m (prev: -0.2%) in July, possibly underpinned by holiday demand but the outlook is still murky amid persistent inflation and supply chain issues. UK headline inflation hits 10.1% The highest in decades and above the 9.8% expected and for the month-on-month reading of +0.6%, higher than the +0.4% expected. Core inflation hit 6.2% vs. 5.9% expected and 5.8% in Jun. That matched the cycle high from back in April. Retail inflation rose +0.9% MoM and +12.3% YoY vs. +0.6%/+12.0% expected, respectively. The Bank of England has forecast that inflation will peak out this fall at above 13%. Reserve Bank of New Zealand hikes 50 basis points to 3.00%, forecasts 4% policy rate peak The RBNZ both increased and brought forward its peak rate forecast to 4.00%, a move that was actually interpreted rather neutrally – more hawkish for now, but suggesting that the RBNZ would like to pause after achieveing 4.00%. 2-year NZ rates were unchanged later in the session after a brife poke higher. RBNZ Governor warned in a press conference that New Zealand home prices will continue to fall. This is actually a desired outcome after a huge spike in housing speculation and prices due to low rates from the pandemic response and massive pressure from a Labor-led government that had promised lower housing costs were behind the RBNZ’s quick pivot and more aggressive hiking cycle in 2021. Walmart shares rally on improved outlook The largest US retailer surprised on both revenue and earnings in its Q2 report with most of the revenue growth coming from higher prices and not volume. The retailer now sees an EPS decline of 9-11% this fiscal year compared to previously 11-13% suggesting input cost pressures are easing somewhat. Walmart is seeing more middle and high-income customers and the retailer has also cancelled orders for billions of dollars to lower inventory levels suggesting global supply chains are improving. Walmart shares were up 5%. Home Depot still sees robust market The largest US home improvement retailer beat on revenue and earnings yesterday in its Q2 results with Q2 comparative sales up 5.8% vs est. 4.6% highlighting that volumes are falling as revenue growth is below inflation rates. The US housing market figures on housing starts and permits cemented that the US housing market is slowing down due to the recent rally in mortgage rates. Home Depot is taking a conservative approach to guidance, but the market nevertheless pushed shares 4% higher. Apple supplier Foxconn suspends its factory in Chengdu due to a power crunch Foxconn’s Chengdu factory is suspending operations for six days from August 15 to 20 due to a regional power shortage. The suspension is affecting Foxconn’s supply of iPad to Apple. The company says the impact “has been limited at the moment” but it may affect shipments if the power outage persists. The Chengdu government is imposing power curbs on industrial users to ensure electricity supply for the city’s residents. At the same time, Foxconn has started test production of the Apple watch in its factories in Vietnam. With the passage of CHIPS and Science Act earlier this month in the U.S., there have been speculations that Taiwanese and Korean chipmakers and their customers may be accelerating the building up of production capacity away from China. Big European aluminium plant to halt production Norsk Hydro’s aluminium plant in Slovakia is halting primary production by end of September due adverse conditions such as elevated electricity prices. The aluminium company would incur significant financial losses should it continue its operations.   What are we watching next?   Eyes on US retail sales today  US retail sales will be next test of the US consumer after less bad retailer earnings last night. Retail sales should have been more resilient given the lower prices at pump improved the spending power of the average American household, and Amazon Prime Day in the month possibly attracted bargain hunters as well. However, consensus expectations are modest at 0.1% m/m compared to last month’s 1.0%. FOMC minutes to be parsed for hints on future Fed moves The Federal Reserve had lifted rates by 75bps at the late July meeting to bring the Fed Funds rate to a level they have previously considered neutral, but stayed away from providing any forward guidance. The minutes of that July meeting are to be released later today, and member comments will be watched closely for any hints on the expectation for September rate hike or the terminal Fed rate. The hot July US jobs report and the cooling July inflation number, as well as a blistering three week rally in equity markets have further confused the markets since the Fed meeting, even as Fed speakers continue to push against any expectations of rate cuts as soon as ‘early’ 2023. The next chief focus for Fed guidance will remain on the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium next week. Earnings to watch Today’s European earnings focus is Carlsberg and Coloplast with the former reporting strong first-half organic growth of 20.7% vs est. 15.5% suggesting breweries are seeing healthy volume and price gains. Tencent is the key focus in Asia and especially given the recent developments in China on anti-monopoly laws and its decision to divest its $24bn stake in Meituan. In the US the focus will be on Cisco which saw its growth grinding to a halt in the previous quarter. Wednesday: Tencent, Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing, Analog Devices, Cisco Systems, Synopsys, Lowe’s, CSL, Target, TJX, Coloplast, Carlsberg, Wolfspeed Thursday: Applied Materials, Estee Lauder, NetEase, Adyen, Nibe Industrier, Geberit Friday: China Merchants Bank, CNOOC, Shenzhen Mindray, Xiaomi, Deere Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Eurozone Q2 GDP Estimate 1230 – US Jul. Retail Sales 1430 – US Weekly Crude Oil and Product Inventories 1800 – US FOMC Minutes 1820 – US Fed’s Bowman (Voter) to speak 2110 – New Zealand RBNZ Governor Orr before parliamentary committee 0130 – Australia Jul. Employment Change (Unemployment Rate)   Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Source: Has The Best Main Interest Rate In 7 Years
    The Commodities Feed: China's 2023 growth target underwhelms markets

    Apple Concentrated On Vietnam Productions As China Having Problems With Energy Supply

    Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 18.08.2022 14:03
    Overview: The sell-off in European bonds continues today. The 10-year German Bund yield is around four basis points higher to bring three-day increase to about 22 bp. The Italian premium over Germany has risen by almost 18 bp over these three sessions. Its two-year premium is widening for the fifth consecutive session and is above 90 bp for the first time in almost three weeks. The 10-year US Treasury yield is a little softer near 2.88%. Most of the large Asia Pacific equity markets fell, with India a notable exception. Europe’s Stoxx 600 snapped a five-day rally yesterday with a 0.9% loss. It is slightly firmer today, while US futures are hovering around yesterday’s closing levels. The greenback is firm against most of the major currencies. The Australian and Canadian dollars  and Norwegian krone and sterling are the most resilient today. The Philippines, like Norway hiked 50 bp but unlike Norway, the currency has not been bought. Most emerging market currencies are softer today. Gold is trying to break a three-day slide after approaching $1760. It settled last week at $1802. October WTI found a base a little below $85.50 and is around $88.50 near midday in Europe. The week’s high was set Monday by $91.50. US natgas is up 1.1% to recoup yesterday’s loss in full. Europe’s benchmark is extended this week’s run. It finished last week near 205.85 and now is around 232.00, a 12.7% gain after 6% last week. Iron ore ended a four-day 8% slide. September copper is recovering from the early drop to near two-week lows ($354.20) and is now near 362.00. A move above yesterday’s high (~$365) would be constructive. The sell-ff in September wheat has accelerated. It is off for the fifth consecutive session and is at its lowest level since January. After falling around 3% in three days from last Friday, it is off more than 5% between yesterday and today. Asia Pacific For good reasons, Beijing and Washington suspect the other of trying to change that status quo over Taiwan  The visits by US legislators may be only the initial efforts by Congress to force a more aggressive US position. It could come to a head in the fall when a bill that wants to recognize Taiwan as a major non-NATO ally and to foster Taiwan's membership in international forums will draw more attention. Meanwhile, US-Taiwan trade talks will begin later this year that was first aired a couple of months ago. At the same time, the Biden administration has been considering lifting some of the tariffs levied by the previous administration, but China's militaristic response to the visits makes it more difficult. Biden wants to lift the tariffs not to reward Beijing but to ease the costs to Americans. The Consumer Technology Association, an industry group, estimated that the tariffs have boosted the bill for American consumer technology companies by around $32 bln. The tariffs are paid to the US government. It seems that in lieu of lifting the tariffs, a broad exclusion process is possible. Related but separately, the Nikkei Asia reported that Apple is in talks to produce its watches and computers in Vietnam for the first time  Two suppliers have been producing Apple Watches in northern Vietnam. A couple of months ago, reports indicated that Apple would more some production of its tablets to Vietnam. Apple's ecosystem is establishing a presence in Vietnam, with nearly two dozen suppliers have factories now, almost doubling since 2018. As a result of these forces and the movement of capacity outside of China, Vietnam's trade surplus with the US is exploding. The $33 bln surplus in 2016 ballooned to $91 bln last year and was nearly $58 bln in the first half. For the past five years, the dollar has traded in a roughly 2% band around VND23000. The greenback is near the upper end of the range. Australia's July jobs report was disappointing  It lost almost 87k full-time positions after gaining nearly 53k in June. Part-time positions increased (46k), leading to a 40.9k loss of overall jobs. The median forecast (Bloomberg survey) was for a gain of 25k jobs. The unemployment rate slipped to a new record low of 3.4% (from 3.5%) but this was due to a sharp drop in the participation rate (66.4% from 66.8%). Ostensibly, this could give the central bank space to be more flexible at its September 6 meeting. However, the futures market as taken it in stride that has left the odds of a 50 bp hike next month essentially unchanged around 57%. This is essentially where it was at the end of last week and the week before. Many are now familiar with China's rolling lockdowns to combat Covid and the implosion of property market, a key engine of growth and accumulation  A new threat has emerged. The extreme weather has seen water levels in Sichuan's hydropower reserves as much as 50% this month, according to report, prompting the shuttering of factories (hub for solar panels, cement, and urea). Dazhou, a city of nearly 3.5 mln people, imposed a 2 1/2-hour power cuts this week that were expanded to three hours yesterday. Office buildings in Chengdu, the provincial capital, were barred from using air conditioning. Many areas in central and northern China imposed emergency measures to ensure the availability of drinking water. The heat and drought threaten summer crops and risk greater food-driven inflation. At the same time, Shanxi, which provides about a quarter of China's coal is worried about floods, it has suspended the operation of more than 100 mines since June. The government-imposed measures to boost output and Shanxi coal output rose by around 16% in H1.  The dollar is confined to a narrow range, straddling the JPY135 area  It has held `below last week's high around JPY135.60 and above the JPY134.55, where options for $700 mln expire today. The Australian dollar has been sold aggressively this week. It began near $0.7115 and tested $0.6900 today, meeting the (50%) retracement objective of the rally from the mid-July low (~$0.6880). It was only able to make a marginal new low today, suggesting that the selling pressure has abated. The next retracement (61.8%) is closer to $0.6855. Initial resistance is seen around $0.6950. After slipping a little yesterday, the greenback returned to its recent highs against the Chinese yuan around CNY6.7960. This year's high was set in May near CNY6.8125. Between Covid lockdowns, the weather disruptions, and the continued unwinding of the property bubble, a weaker yuan may the path of least resistance. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.7802 compared with expectations from Bloomberg's survey of CNY6.7806. The yuan is falling for the sixth consecutive month against the dollar. Europe The eurozone may not have completed its banking and monetary union, but the ECB said that it would harmonize how banks offer crypto assets and have sufficient capital and expertise  Crypto companies have negotiated with national authorities in several EMU member countries, but common EU licensing rules are unlikely any time soon. There is a patchwork of differing national rules, and in some countries, some types of crypto activity may require a banking license, for example. Norway's central bank hiked its deposit rate by 50 bp and indicated it would "most likely" lift rates again next month What makes today's move somewhat more aggressive that it may appear is that the hike took place at a meeting that did not include an economic update and projections for the future path of policy. Norges Bank acknowledged that the policy rate trajectory would be faster than projected in June and the inflation risks being higher for longer. The deposit rate now sits at 1.75%. Another 50 bp hike next month (September 22) seems likely followed by a 25 bp move in November, the last meeting of the year. The euro briefly popped a little above $1.02 on what was initially seen as dovish FOMC minutes in the North American afternoon yesterday  However, it returned to yesterday's lows low near $1.0145 before finding a bid. The week's low was set Tuesday slightly below $1.0125, which is ahead of the retracement objective we identified near $1.0110. The euro is consolidating as the US two-year premium over Germany falls to its lowest level in a nearly a month (2.54%), and almost 25 bp below the peak seen after the US jobs data on August 5. Labor disputes are crippling UK trains, buses, subways, and a key container port today. Sterling slipped to $1.1995, its lowest level since July 26. The nicking of the neckline of a possible double top was not a convincing violation and sterling has recovered to the $1.2060 area in the London morning. If this is not the peak in sterling, it seems close. Tomorrow, the UK is expected to report a decline in July retail sales, excluding gasoline. This measure of retail sales rose by 0.4% in June, the first increase since last October. The median forecast (Bloomberg survey) is for a 0.3% fall. The swaps market is pricing in a 50 bp hike at the mid-September BOE meeting and about a 1-in-5 chance of a 75 bp move. America US interest rates softened and dragged the dollar lower following the release of the FOMC minutes  The market seems to have focused on the concern of "many" members that it could over-tighten but there was no sign that this was going to prevent them for raising rates further. Indeed, it suggest that the risk of inflation expectations becoming embedded was greater. More hikes were appropriate, the minutes said, and a restrictive stance may be required for "some time". The minutes also played the recent pullback in commodity prices as an indicator of lower inflation, which it still says the evidence is lacking. When everything was said and done the September Fed funds futures were unchanged for the fourth consecutive session. Autos and gasoline held by retail sales in July, but excluding them, retail sales rose by 0.7%, matching the June increase  The core measure, which also excludes building materials and food services rose a solid 0.8%. Retail sales account for around 40% of personal consumption expenditures. The July PCE is due next week (August 26) and picks up service consumption too. The early call is for it to rise by 0.5%. However, it too is a nominal report, and in real terms, a 0.3%-0.4% gain would be a strong showing. The retail sales report lent credence to anecdotal stories about department stores discounting prices to move inventory. Amazon's Prime Day (July 12-13) was claimed to be the biggest so far. Online sales overall surged 2.7%. Today's data includes weekly jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed survey, existing home sale, and the index of Leading Economic Indicators  Th four-week average of weekly jobless claims rose to 252k in the week ending August 5. Recall the four-week moving average, used to smooth out some of the noise bottomed in the week ending April 1 at 170.5k. They averaged around 238k in December 2019, which was the highest since the first half of January 2018. Continuing claims have edged higher in recent weeks, but at 1.428 mln, they are roughly 20% below the peak at the start of this year. The Philadelphia Fed survey is particularly interesting today because of the disastrous Empire State survey. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey is for a -5 reading after -12.3 in July. Meanwhile, existing home sales have fallen for five months through June. In fact, new home sales have been fallen every quarter since the end of 2020, with the exception of Q3 21. They fell by an average of 1.7% in Q1 22 and 3.8% in Q2 22. The median forecast is for a nearly 5% decline in July. The market tends not to get excited about the leading economic index series. Economists expected the fifth consecutive decline. The only month it rose this year was February. The US dollar extended its recovery against the Canadian dollar to reach almost CAD1.2950, its highest level since August 8 today  It was pressed lower by new offers in the European morning that drove it back to almost CAD1.2900. The market may take its cues from the S&P 500 and the general risk appetites in the North American session. With the intraday momentum indicators stretched, yesterday's post-FOMC minutes low near CAD1.2880 may offer sufficient support. The greenback rose to a five-day high against the Mexican peso yesterday around MXN20.09. It is consolidating and straddling the MXN20.00 area. Our reading of the technical condition favors the dollar's upside, and the first important target is near MXN20.20. The US dollar gapped higher against the Brazilian real yesterday and approached the BRL5.22 area, where the 20-day and 200-day moving averages converge. The opening gap was closed late on the pullback spurred by the reading of FOMC minute headlines. The price action is similar to the peso, where the dollar has traded heavily since last month but appears to have found a bottom. A break above BRL5.22 would target the month's high near BRL5.3150.       Disclaimer   Source: Fed Minutes were Not as Dovish as Initially Read
    The Close Relationship With BTC Does Not Allow The Altcoin To Move On Its Own

    Crypto: Ethereum (ETH) And Bitcoin (BTC) Start Losing? Filecoin (FIL) Sheded Almost 18%!

    Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 19.08.2022 14:57
    Since the beginning of July, the crypto market seemed to be on the rise. The largest tokens (BTC and ETH) at the local peak, gained around 35% and 101% respectively. However, today at 11:30 GMT+3 BTC is losing around 7.3% and ETH around 8%. Today, ETH broke through its price channel and the 20-day moving average. If the price does not return to the channel in the next couple of days, we will be able to say that a possible reversal of the short-term trend we mentioned in previous articles has taken place. Especially if this is confirmed by indicators such as the Wilder directional indicator. BTC has also moved far out of its price channel and is currently below the 10, 20 and 50-day moving averages. The directional indicator has already shown a potential trend reversal and the MACD is approaching the negative zone. Today on the Conotoxia MT5 platform at 11:00 GMT+3, Filecoin (FIL) is down the most. It is experiencing a loss of almost 18%. According to Coinmarketcap, it has a capitalisation of almost $1.8 billion and a daily volume of over $511 million. Filecoin was launched in 2020 to decentralise data storage, providing an alternative to industry giants such as Amazon and Alibaba at a cost reduction of almost 99%. The project's network connects storage providers with customers looking for a place to keep their data. Those offering their storage from laptops to server rooms after verifying data integrity and security can obtain a FIL token as a reward. This creates a highly diversified and low-cost database network. However, the characteristics of the project are inherently inflationary, unlike BTC. The declines described are attributed to a broad market correction, the exit of 'big money' and growing pessimism about the increasing supply of FIL tokens. Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: The crypto market falls as profits are realised
    Are There Any Chances That Amazon Will Find Itself Under Another Downward Pressure?

    Tech Stocks: (AMZN) Amazon Stock Price Nearing $160?

    Jing Ren Jing Ren 06.09.2022 10:10
    Could Amazon Stock Price draw a zigzag?  AMZN shares are expected to develop a zigzag, which consists of sub-waves a-b-c of the cycle degree. Perhaps the market has completed the formation of the first major wave a, it represents a bullish 5-wave impulse. Since the end of last year, there has been a decline in the price, which may indicate the beginning of the construction of a bearish correction b. This correction may take the form of a zigzag â’¶-â’·-â’¸. Most likely, in the near future we will see a continuation of the depreciation of stocks in the final intermediate wave (5), which may end the primary impulse wave at 93.41. At that level, wave (5) will be at 76.4% of previous impulse (3). Read next: Russia Suspends Flow Through The Nord Stream 1 Pipeline, Cotton Futures, Gold Prices Increase For The First Time In 3-weeks| FXMAG.COM After the end of the impulse wave â’¶, the stock is expected to rise in the primary correction â’·. Another scenatio for AMZN Let's consider a scenario in which the market has completed the formation of the primary wave â’¶. According to this markup, the wave â’¶ has the form of a leading diagonal (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5). In this case, in the last section of the chart, we see a price increase within the bullish correction â’·. It is assumed that the correction wave â’· will take the form of an intermediate double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y), where the actionary wave (W) is also a double zigzag W-X-Y of a lesser degree. It is possible that the correction â’· will be at 61.8% of wave â’¶. Thus, its completion is expected to reach the level of 154.91. An approximate scheme of possible future movement is shown on the chart.
    The GBP/USD Pair's Traders Still Use Every Opportunity To Buy

    UK Inflation Is The Highest In Decades!!! China Still Closing Factories, Toyota And Apple Are In Danger?

    Saxo Strategy Team Saxo Strategy Team 18.08.2022 09:48
    Summary:  U.S. equities took a pause from their week-long advance, with S&P 500 retreating before its 200-day moving average. Target’s Q2 results disappointed as the retailer suffered from high inventories and U.S. consumers shifted from discretionary to grocery items. What is happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I)  U.S.’s advance higher took a pause yesterday amid higher bond yields and disappointing results from Target (TGT:xnys), -2.7%. Target’s Q2 earnings fell sharply and missed consensus expectations on weaker gross margins due to slower sales in discretionary items and inventory impairments.  Lowe’s (LOW:xnys) reported mixed results, with earnings beating estimates but same-store sales growth weaker than expected. Higher U.S. bond yields triggered by a dramatic rise in U.K. bond yields and reported pension fund rebalancing-related selling added to the equity weakness.  S&P 500 dropped 0.7% and Nasdaq 100 shed 1.2%.  U.S. treasury yields rose from spilling over from a massive rise in U.K. Gilt yields and weak 20-year bond auction U.S. 10-year treasury yields jumped 9bps to 3.05%, taking cues from the sharp move higher in U.K. Gilts and European sovereign bond yields following white-hot UK CPI data. Long-end yields moved further higher on poor results from the 20-year auction.  Short-end yields fell in the late afternoon after the July FOMC minutes signaling that it “would become appropriate at some point to slow the pace of policy rate increases” which reaffirmed the market’s expectation of a 50bps, instead of 75bps on the September FOMC.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIQ2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index bounced modestly by 0.5%; CSI399 gained 9.6%. Meituan (03690:xhkg) rallied 3.3% after a 9% drop yesterday due to a Reuters story suggesting that Tencent (00700:xhkg) plans to divest its 17% stake (USD24 billion) in Meituan. Tencent denied such a divesture plan last night.  Power tools and floor care equipment maker and a supplier to Home Depot (HD:xnys) and Wal Mart (WMT:xnys), Techtronic Industries (00669:xhkg) jumped more than 10% after better-than-expected results from the two U.S. retailers. China Resources Power (00836:xhkg) +5.7% after reporting weak 1H22 results but more wind and solar projects on the pipeline. Other Chinese power producers also outperformed amid power shortages. China Power (02380:xhkg) surged more than 8%. On Tuesday, China’s Premier Li Keqiang visited Shenzhen and held a meeting with provincial chiefs from Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Henan, and Sichuan to reiterate the central government’s push for full use of policies to stabilize the economy. Hong Kong Exchanges (00388:xhkg) fell 1.6% after reporting lower revenues, higher costs, and a 22% YoY decline in EPS, worse than market expectations. After the market close, Tencent reported weak but in line with expectations revenues and better-than-feared earnings in Q2. Tencent’s ADR climbed 3.5% overnight from the Hong Kong close. AUDUSD eying the labor market report, GBP will see more pain ahead A mixed session again overnight for the US dollar with FOMC minutes and US retail sales failing to provide any fresh impetus to the markets. AUDUSD was the biggest loser on the G10 board, sliding below 0.7000 to lows of 0.6911 after real wage data for Q2 showed a massive slump. Labor market data due this morning could further weigh on RBA expectations, if it comes out softer than expected. The weakness seen in the commodity markets, especially iron ore and copper, weighed on the antipodeans. GBPUSD stays above 1.2000 despite a 40bps gains in UK 2-year yields after the double-digit UK CPI print. USDJPY tested the resistance at 135.50 but was rejected for now. Crude oil prices (CLU2 & LCOV2) Crude oil prices made a slight recovery overnight, with WTI futures getting back to over $87/barrel and Brent futures close to $94 after data showed US inventories fell sharply. Sentiment was also supported by comments from OPEC’s new Secretary-General, Haitham Al Ghais, who said that world oil demand will rise by almost 3mb/d this year. He also said there is a high chance of a supply squeeze this year, in part because fears of slowing usage in China are exaggerated. This helped to take the focus off the prospects of the Iran nuclear deal for now. What to consider? Stale FOMC minutes hint at sustained restrictive policy Fed’s meeting minutes from the July meeting were released last night, and officials agreed to move to restrictive policy, with some noting that restrictive rates will have to be maintained for some time to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Still, there was also talk of slowing the pace of rate hikes ‘at some point’, despite pushing back against easing expectations for next year. The minutes were broadly in-line with the market’s thinking, and lacked fresh impetus needed to bring up the pricing of Fed’s rate hikes. Chairman Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium next week will be keenly watched for further inputs. US retail sales were a mixed bag July US retail sales are a little softer at the headline level than the market expected (0% growth versus the +0.1% consensus) but the ex-auto came in stronger at 0.4% (vs. -0.1% expected). June’s growth was revised down to 0.8% from 1%. The mixed data confirmed that the US consumers are feeling the pinch from higher prices, but have remained resilient so far and that could give the Fed more room to continue with its aggressive rate hikes. Lower pump prices and further improvements in supply chain could further lift up retail spending in August. UK CPI opens the door for another 50bps rate hike UK headline inflation hits 10.1%, the highest in decades and above the 9.8% expected and for the month-on-month reading of +0.6%, higher than the +0.4% expected. Core inflation hit 6.2% vs. 5.9% expected and 5.8% in Jun. That matched the cycle high from back in April. Retail inflation rose +0.9% MoM and +12.3% YoY vs. +0.6%/+12.0% expected, respectively. The Bank of England has forecast that inflation will peak out this fall at above 13%. While the central bank forecasted a recession lasting for five quarters at the last meeting, it will be hard for them to not press ahead with further tightening at the August meeting, and in fact the scope for another 50bps rate hike is getting bigger. Reserve Bank of New Zealand hikes 50 basis points to 3.00%, forecasts 4% policy rate peak The RBNZ both increased and brought forward its peak rate forecast to 4.00%, a move that was actually interpreted rather neutrally – more hawkish for now, but suggesting that the RBNZ would like to pause after achieving 4.00%. RBNZ Governor warned in a press conference that New Zealand home prices will continue to fall. This is actually a desired outcome after a huge spike in housing speculation and prices due to low rates from the pandemic response and massive pressure from a Labor-led government that had promised lower housing costs were behind the RBNZ’s quick pivot and more aggressive hiking cycle in 2021. Australian wages grew at their quickest pace in eight years, but less than expected Australia’s wage-price index gained 0.7% in the second quarter, just shy of estimates further pressuring the Aussie dollar back toward its 50-day moving average against the US dollar. Annual wage growth came in at 2.6% but real wages - adjusted for headline inflation fell 1% QoQ, and was 3.3% lower than a year earlier, eroding consumer spending power. What’s next. All eyes will be on Australia’s Reserve Bank which might be pressured to hike more than expected at its September meeting. Despite Australian wages growing slower than expected, the RBA estimates retail gas and electric prices to rise 10-15% in the second half of the year, so that will be a focus point when they consider their next move in interest rates. Tencent reported weak but in-line Q2 revenues and better-than-feared earnings Tencent reported a revenue decline of 3% YoY in Q2, weak but in line with market expectations.  Non-GAAP operating profit was down 14% YoY to RMB 36.7 billion and EPS fell 17% YoY to RMB2.90 but they beat analyst estimates.  Revenues from advertising, -18% YoY, were better than expected.  In the game segment, weaker mobile game revenues were offset by stronger PC game revenues. Disappointing results from Target and mixed results from Lowe’s Target reported EPS of USD0.39, missing estimates.  The company indicated strength in food and beverage, beauty, and household essentials but weaker in discretionary categories.  Gross margin of 21.5%, down from 30.4% year-ago quarter and below expectations. Lowe’s reported better than expected EPS of USD4.67 (vs consensus USD4.58) but a decline of 0.3% in same-store sales.  Lowe’s inventories grew 11.6% YoY, substantially lower than peer Home Depot.  With a 15% increase in product costs, the inventory volume was in effect down low-single digit. Power crunch in China shut factories Chongqing is limiting power supply to industrial users from yesterday to next Wednesday.  In Sichuan, Foxconn’s Chengdu factory is suspending operations for six days from August 15 to 20 due to a regional power shortage. The suspension is affecting Foxconn’s supply of iPad to Apple.  The company says the impact “has been limited at the moment” but it may affect shipments if the power outage persists.  The Chengdu government is imposing power curbs on industrial users to ensure electricity supply for the city’s residents.  Toyota and CATL are also suspending some operations in Sichuan due to a power shortage. Foxconn has started test production of the Apple watch in Vietnam Foxconn has started test production of the Apple watch in its factories in Vietnam. With the passage of CHIPS and Science Act earlier this month in the U.S., investors are monitoring closely if Taiwanese and Korean chipmakers as well as their customers may be accelerating the building up of production capacity away from China.  World’s biggest Sovereign Wealth fund posts its biggest half-year loss on record   Norway’s oil fund, the world’s biggest owner of public traded companies lost 14.4% in the six months through to June. In currency terms that’s $174 billion. The slump was driven by the fund’s loss in technology stocks with Meta Platforms (owning Facebook and Instagram) and Amazon, leading the decline. However, just like the market, the fund’s energy sector delivered positive share price performance, benefiting from a sharp rise in earnings in the oil, gas, and refined energy product sector. Meanwhile, investments in logistics property helped the fund’s unlisted real estate holdings gain 7.1%, though they account for 3% of its assets. Japan’s inflation will surge further Japan’s nationwide CPI for July is due to be reported at the end of the week. July producer prices came in slightly above expectations at 8.6% y/y (vs. estimates of 8.4% y/y) while the m/m figure was as expected at 0.4%. The continued surge reflects that Japanese businesses are waddling high input price pressures, and these are likely to get passed on to the consumers, suggesting further increases in CPI remain likely. More government relief measures are likely to be announced, while any little hope for a Bank of Japan pivot is fading. Bloomberg consensus estimates are calling for Japan’s CPI to accelerate to 2.6% y/y from 2.4% previously, with the ex-fresh food number seen at 2.4% y/y vs. 2.2% earlier. For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: APAC Daily Digest: What is happening in markets and what to consider next – August 18, 2022
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    How Did The US Inflation Print Affect Tech Stocks? Check Apple Stock, Amazon And Other Companies' Reaction

    FXStreet News FXStreet News 14.09.2022 16:41
    META stock falls over 9% on Tuesday in a market meltdown. Nasdaq is down 5%, and S&P 500 is down 4% by comparison. Meta Platforms underperforms markedly versus main indices. Meta Platforms (META) stock fell sharply on Tuesday as the market digested the US CPI print. A higher than expected number led to a sharp sell-off in equities with all the main indices closing sharply lower. However, tech took the biggest brunt of the selling with Apple and Alphabet down 6%, amazon down 7%, and Meta Platforms down a whopping 9%. Meta Platforms stock news Why the big divergence from big tech? Usually, these are seen as haven plays. All are supposed to be cash generative. The problem is big tech is generally seen as having the most to lose from higher interest rates. This may be true for some but not all. The higher the growth rate of a stock, then the bigger effect a change in interest rates has on its performance. That is why FAANG was such an outsized performer during the Fed juiced says of monetary stimulus post-pandemic. Higher growth rates get discounted by the prevailing rate of interest. If those interest rates are forecast to rise, then the present value calculation gets reduced. Adding to tech pressure and especially for the aforementioned companies is the strength of the US dollar. These are global companies, many of whom generate more than half of their revenues in overseas currencies. When that overseas currency depreciates (think euro, yen, GBP, etc.), then all of a sudden those foreign revenues are worth less in dollar terms. This affects revenues and leads to the hilarious lines we see in corporate earnings reports – "in constant currency". When are currencies ever constant? Adding to the sentiment of Meta stock this morning is news that South Korea has fined it and Alphabet (GOOGL) over violation of privacy laws, according to Reuters. Meta Platforms stock forecast META is just on massive support at around $154. Breaking this, the next level is the pandemic low at $137. The double top at $184 keeps a lid on bulls, and only a break there begins to look interesting for the bearish narrative to end. META stock chart, daily
    The Japanese Yen Retreats as USD/JPY Gains Momentum

    Tech Stocks: What Can We Expect From (AMZN) Amazon Stock Price?

    Jing Ren Jing Ren 27.09.2022 10:09
    AMZN suggests the development of a zigzag, which consists of sub-waves a-b-c of the cycle degree. Perhaps the market has completed the formation of the first major wave a, it is a bullish 5-wave impulse In the last section of the chart, we see a decrease in the price, which may indicate the beginning of a bearish correction b. It may take the form of a zigzag â’¶-â’·-â’¸. Most likely, in the near future we will see a continuation of the depreciation of stocks in the final intermediate wave (5), which may end the primary impulse wave near 93.41. At that level, wave (5) will be at 76.4% of previous impulse (3). After the end of the impulse wave â’¶, the stock is expected to rise in the primary correction â’·. However, it is possible that the market has completed the formation of the primary wave â’¶. According to this markup, the wave â’¶ has the form of a leading diagonal (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5). In this case, in the last section of the chart, we see the price increase in a bullish correction â’·. It is assumed that the correction wave â’· will take the form of an intermediate double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y), where the actionary wave (W) is also a double zigzag W-X-Y of a lesser degree. It is possible that the correction â’· will be at 61.8% of wave â’¶. Thus, its completion is expected to reach the level of 155.06. An approximate scheme of possible future movement is shown on the chart.
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    Bank Of England Intervention Boosts Risk Appetite And The Possible End Of The iPhone Era

    Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 29.09.2022 10:39
    The Bank of England (BoE) jumped in the UK’s shattered sovereign market to buy long-term UK bonds yesterday, because apparently, they have been warned that collateral calls on Wednesday afternoon could force investors to further dump their UK sovereign holdings. And the UK could no longer afford another heavy selloff wave on its sovereigns. Will the enthusiasm last?  The British 10-year yield fell 10% yesterday, and the pound jumped past the 1.08 mark against the US dollar and consolidated below 0.90 against the euro. The FTSE recovered early losses and closed the session 0.30% higher, gold recovered to $1662 an ounce, American crude rallied past the $80 per barrel, also boosted by the Hurricane Ian’s negative impact on supply. Around 11% of the Gulf of Mexico production was halted due to the storm.The S&P500 gained almost 2% yesterday to above 3700 level, while Nasdaq jumped more than 2%. Will the enthusiasm last? Not so sure. Yesterday’s price action was a sugar rush, triggered by the BoE intervention. Enthusiasm will likely fall as the level of blood sugar falls across the financial markets. Amazon is on the rise Amazon jumped 3% as investors liked the new devices at Wednesday’s annual device event, and Apple slipped on announcement that it will, finally, not produce more iPhones compared to last years.In Europe, all eyes are on Porsche that starts flying with its own wings today! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:27 BoE finally jumps in 3:24 BoE intervention boosts risk appetite, but for how long? 5:30 Amazon convinces, Apple disappoints 8:54 Porsche is now up for grab! Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #BoE #intervention #UK #gilt #GBP #Hurricane #Ian #crude #oil #energy #crisis #XAU #FTSE #sovereign #bonds #rally #Apple #Amazon #Porsche #IPO #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
    AMZN: Is The Primary Wave Ⓐ An Impulse Or A Leading Diagonal?

    AMZN: Is The Primary Wave Ⓐ An Impulse Or A Leading Diagonal?

    Jing Ren Jing Ren 18.10.2022 23:16
    The structure of AMZN shares shows the development of a corrective trend. It is assumed that a zigzag is formed, which consists of sub-waves a-b-c of the cycle degree. Perhaps at the end of last year, the market completed the formation of the first major wave a, it is a bullish 5-wave impulse. After the end of the impulse growth, the price began to decline, which may indicate the beginning of a bearish correction b. It may take the form of a zigzag â’¶-â’·-â’¸ of the primary degree. Most likely, in the near future we will see a continuation of the depreciation of stocks in the final intermediate wave (5), which may end the primary impulse wave â’¶ near 92.78. At that level, wave (5) will be at 76.4% of previous impulse (3). After the end of the impulse wave â’¶, we expect the stock to grow in the primary correction â’·. An alternative scenario is possible, where the market has completed the formation of the primary wave â’¶. According to this markup, the wave â’¶ has the form of a leading diagonal (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5). In this case, in the last section of the chart, we see the price increase in a bullish correction â’·. It is assumed that the correction wave â’· will take the form of an intermediate double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y), where the actionary wave (W) is also a double zigzag W-X-Y of a lesser degree. It is possible that the correction â’· will be at 61.8% of wave â’¶. Thus, its completion is expected to reach the level of 154.93.
    Are There Any Chances That Amazon Will Find Itself Under Another Downward Pressure?

    Apple’s New Products | Goldman Sachs’ Results | In Amazon Rejected A Unionization

    Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 19.10.2022 11:35
    Tweets provide a lot of information. Goldman Sachs shares information on financial results. Morgan Stanley promotes social justice, and CBNC reports problems at Amazon Labor Union. In this article: Recession and investor decisions Forecasts for the World Economic Outlook Results for 3Q 2022 Social justice Financial sector and technology Amazon Labor Union New products A safe haven for investors Morningstar, Inc. tweets about recession and investor decisions.   As recession worries rattle markets, stock investors may be looking for companies that can withstand an economic slowdown.The stocks of these 3 wide-moat, recession-resistant companies are undervalued today. Learn more: https://t.co/3r3DzswKWS pic.twitter.com/np8uOlZY4x — Morningstar, Inc. (@MorningstarInc) October 19, 2022 Recession is becoming more and more likely. Investors remain anxious. Economies, markets and their participants are looking for the safest havens possible. In the tweet, the author points to companies that can withstand an economic slowdown. Such information can help many market participants. How much can slow down? The IMF tweets about its forecasts for the World Economic Outlook.   The IMF forecasts global growth to slow from 6.0% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023. This is the weakest growth since 2001, except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the pandemic. https://t.co/P0SXP8LkHd #WEO pic.twitter.com/uMMPdQOxGT — IMF (@IMFNews) October 18, 2022 Time is hard on the economies. Everyone feels it on their own skin when shopping. The current economic downturn is the worst since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the pandemic. Knowing the forecasts will allow every average person to prepare, plan their budget and limit the risk. It is also a signal for investors to help them orientate their actions. How Goldman Sachs looked like in Q3 Goldman Sachs in its tweet announces 3Q 2022 net revenues and earnings per share.   $GS announces 3Q 2022 net revenues and earnings per share. View the full results and accompanying presentation, and learn more on our 9:30AM ET conference call: https://t.co/vP2fPRz3hX pic.twitter.com/FNBJ5drZat — Goldman Sachs (@GoldmanSachs) October 18, 2022 With the end of one quarter and the beginning of the next, the financial results of the companies emerge. The last quarter has been difficult for many companies, rising inflation is a problem for everyone. Goldman Schas is another company that presents its result. How it fell in the third quarter may give a picture of her situation. There will also be a conference call to discuss the company's financial results. Promoting social justice Morgan Stanley tweets about his commitment to social justice   As part of our commitment to an integrated and transparent diversity, equity and inclusion strategy, we are supporting @_centritech, a national nonprofit based in Washington, D.C, in launching the first Social Justice Innovation Awards. Read more: https://t.co/TkPl1fH9TW — Morgan Stanley (@MorganStanley) October 18, 2022 In America, social justice is treated in a special way. Striving for them is of utmost importance and a lot of non-profit organizations are being created for this purpose. One of them is supported by the author of the tweet Centri Tech Foundation. A friendly work environment and the company's reputation are supported by its efforts to promote social justice. New technology JP Morgan promotes its activities in the development of technology that they offer to partners.   With billions invested in new technology, we’re working to deliver our partners the tools they need to thrive in a dynamic digital world. — J.P. Morgan (@jpmorgan) October 18, 2022 Currently, technology is the basis for the development of banking and financial business. Offering cutting-edge solutions can attract new customers or partners. As a leading company in its industry, JP Morgan tries to work on its development, for the benefit of its customers and employees. Informing about modern solutions has a positive effect on the company's image. They voted against CNBC Now in its post informs about the opposition of Amazon employees in Albany.   Amazon workers in Albany vote against unionization https://t.co/NBePGDAGOj — CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) October 18, 2022 Amazon is one of the largest e-commerce platforms in the world that operates in the field of online commerce. Amazon employees in the US decided to form a trade union in that country. It was the first time in the history of an e-commerce giant. A trade union is an organization of workers who organize themselves to build a force that can improve living conditions. Workers who organize themselves can jointly negotiate higher wages, better treatment, or favorable collective bargaining. But employees at an Amazon warehouse near Albany overwhelmingly rejected a unionization effort on Tuesday, delivering a blow to an upstart labor union Apple’s new consumer electronics In AppleTrack tweets belonging to Apple we learn about new products.   Apple has RELEASED a new iPad Pro with the M2 chip inside ‼️🤯 pic.twitter.com/FxNzmCLMvb — AppleTrack (@appltrack) October 18, 2022   Here’s the new Apple TV 4K with the A15 chip and HDR10+ 📺🍎 pic.twitter.com/O0Dh05eN7c — AppleTrack (@appltrack) October 18, 2022 NEW $449 iPad released in fresh colors and all-new design ‼️✏️ pic.twitter.com/c3Cp82APmd — AppleTrack (@appltrack) October 18, 2022 A company famous for the production of smartphones, it also produces other consumer electronics. For fans of this company, such information can encourage them to buy and even help the company using word of mouth marketing.
    Kiwi Faces Depreciation Pressure: RBNZ Expected to Hold Rates Amidst Downward Momentum

    ECB to hike by 75bp | Softer US Dollar (USD) Helps Gold And Crude Oil

    Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 27.10.2022 13:51
    Yesterday wasn’t not a good day for the US Big Tech. Google dived almost 10% after reporting disappointing results, while Microsoft sank almost 8%. Nasdaq bounced 2% lower after having tested the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, a touch below the 11700. Meta And don’t expect the things to look better today. Meta dived another 20% in the afterhours trading, after announcing disappointed results. Softer-than-expected  On the macro front, however, the Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised with a softer-than-expected rate hike, and US home sales fell almost 11% in September.   EUR/USD The US dollar index dived below its 50-DMA yesterday. The EURUSD rallied above parity, as Cable advanced past 1.16. Focun On Focus shifts to US GDP dat, the European Central Bank (ECB) decision, Apple & Amazon earnings today. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:33 US Big Tech selloff intensifies. Meta down 20% post-market 1:55 What to expect from Apple & Amazon?7 4:05 Policy pivot? 5:20 US GDP to rebound despite sluggish economy 6:52 US dollar softer, EURUSD rallies above parity, Cable past 1.16 7:52 ECB to hike by 75bp, discuss QT 9:19 Gold, oil up on soft dollar Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Apple #Amazon #Meta #Google #Microsoft #earnings #USD #GDP #ECB #rate #decision #EUR #XAU #crudeoil #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH      
    Oil Prices Soar on Prospect of Soft Landing, Eyes Set on $80 Breakout

    Headline Tokyo CPI increased by 0.7%, Nasdaq lost 1.63%

    ING Economics ING Economics 28.10.2022 09:02
    CNY rises again as USD finds renewed support ahead of next week's FOMC meeting Source: shutterstock Macro outlook Global markets: Expectations for Fed tightening continue to be pared back ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. The May 23 Fed funds contract implied rate is now 4.74%. It was more than 5% earlier this month. This has also pulled back yields on Treasuries. 2Y Yields fell 13bp yesterday. 10y yields are now 3.919% after dropping 8.4bp overnight. There don’t seem to be any obvious catalysts for this. It is the blackout period so there are no Fed speakers. Falling reverse repo usage may be an indicator that the Fed could at least slow the pace of QT, but other than that, it looks mostly like speculation ahead of the FOMC meeting for some “pivot” hints. Despite the softer yield environment, the USD has caught a small bid and has pushed back below parity with the EUR, maybe benefiting from a softer equity backdrop too as the NASDAQ had another bad day ( -1.63%), following some softer sales guidance from Amazon. Equity futures are also still looking soft, so the current sentiment looks likely to persist through today. The USD was slightly stronger against most of the G-10 currencies,  though the JPY has held onto the ground it made yesterday. Asian FX is split, with the CNY bouncing higher after its plunge yesterday, weakening back to 7.229. The KRW and TWD, both of which topped the Asian FX pack yesterday will likely soften into today’s trading. G-7 Macro: As widely predicted, the ECB hiked the refi-rate by 75bp yesterday, taking it to 2%. This note From our Head Of Macro Research, Carsten Brzeski, summarises the decision and press conference. But in short, the ECB is not done with hiking yet as it moves closer to a restrictive rate setting. We also had 3Q22 US GDP data yesterday, which delivered a bigger-than-expected bounce back of 2.6% (saar). Though as our Chief US Economist, James Knightley states, “the outlook is deteriorating rapidly”. Today, we get preliminary October inflation data from Germany, which may continue to creep higher according to the consensus view.  3Q22 GDP for Germany is also released and should register a decline from the previous quarter, taking Germany one step closer to an official recession.  US September personal income and spending data don’t add much to the stock of macro knowledge and can probably be glossed over, though the University of Michigan consumer confidence data and inflation outlook will be worth a look. And finally, the BoJ meets today. As usual, nothing is likely to happen here, especially now the JPY is off its recent highs (see below).   Japan: Headline Tokyo CPI inflation rose quite sharply to 3.5% YoY in October (vs 2.8% in September, market consensus 3.3%). The core inflation rate excluding fresh food also hit 3.4%, the highest level since 1989. We don't think this morning’s much faster rate of inflation will change the BoJ's policy decision today. The BoJ takes a different view than the ECB. If inflation is not driven by demand-side factors, they will not change the easy policy stance and it seems like they believe this will maintain their credibility. Meanwhile, PM Kishida announced a 29.1 trillion yen extra budget. Including local government spending, the number adds up to 71.6 trillion yen.  South Korea: The authorities continue to calm down money markets by providing easier measures on policies. The BoK also eased some of its micro-policy measures. The BoK will temporarily (for three months starting Nov 1st) accept bonds issued by banks and nine state-owned companies such as KEPCO and KOGAS, as eligible collateral for banks borrowing money from the central bank. The plan to raise the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) from 70% to 80% will be postponed by three months to May 2023. The BoK will also carry out a temporary RP (until the end of January 2023) with an estimated amount of 6 trillion KRW.  The government also announced plans to ease mortgage terms from early next year. We think this will help ease market nervousness, but the housing market will continue to cool for the time being given that mortgage rates are now reaching 7%. What to look out for: US sentiment and core PCE Tokyo CPI inflation (28 October) Bank of Japan policy meeting (28 October) Australia PPI inflation (28 October) Taiwan GDP (28 October) US personal spending, core PCE and Univ of Michigan sentiment (28 October) Read this article on THINK TagsEmerging Markets Asia Pacific Asia Markets Asia Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
    US CPI Surprises on the Upside, but Fed Expectations Unchanged Amid Rising Recession Risks

    Layoff In Amazon | Japan's Inflation Highest In 40 Years

    Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 18.11.2022 12:29
    Changes keep happening. Payments keep evolving. Inflation is also increasing, even in Japan. Layoffs at larger companies like Amazon are also on the rise. In this article: The 100 People list Transforming Business Business owners' Amazon Cross-border payments Japanese economy Goldman Sachs Chief Information Officer is in Top100 Goldman Sachs tweets about the 100 People list Transforming Business by Insider. .@BusinessInsider's 2022 list of Top 100 People Transforming Business recognizes our Chief Information Officer, Marco Argenti, among other game-changing leaders! Read more about how Marco is breaking new ground on Wall Street through technology: https://t.co/qDGLAooKCq — Goldman Sachs (@GoldmanSachs) November 17, 2022 Every year, Insider surfaces 100 leaders across 10 industries who are driving unprecedented change and innovation. The T100 does more than highlight career milestones. Goldman Sachs Chief Information Officer, Marco Argenti is on this list. Recognition of one of the directors in the field of finance is important for personal positioning and thus also for the company. Business owners' optimism UBS tweets about business owners' optimism. Despite recession fears, business owners continue to fill post-COVID labor gaps and are still optimistic about their businesses for the next year. #UBSInvestorSentiment #shareUBS — UBS (@UBS) November 17, 2022 There is no doubt that from 2020, companies, markets and entire economies are struggling. The pandemic has had a negative impact on employment, and the current inflation is also not encouraging. Despite the fear and all the difficulties, companies are getting ahead of it and are still hiring new employees. According to UBS bananas, business owners are very optimistic about the future. This is of particular importance for the labor market, as it affects not only the situation of households but also entire economies. Layoff in Amazon CNBC Now quotes the statement of Amazon CEO Andy Jassy. BREAKING: Amazon CEO Andy Jassy says layoffs will continue into next yearhttps://t.co/QEL5Diikjs — CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) November 17, 2022 The employment situation at Amazon is unstable. The company began informing workers this week that they were being let go. CEO Andy Jassy said this will continue next year. The cuts are being made as Amazon reckons with a worsening economy. Amazon isn't the only one struggling. Other giants also decided to reduce staffing. Cross-border payments IMF tweets about possible developments in cross-border payments. Cross-border payments are on track to be transformed by digital money. Learn how in F&D. https://t.co/uXmnOnQd8g pic.twitter.com/PwRn2wW1ki — IMF (@IMFNews) November 18, 2022 The development in this sector is very fast, but cross-border payments are still the Achilles' heel. We have all felt the frustration of sending money abroad. It takes time. It’s expensive. It turns out that there may be development in this payment sector. For people who love to travel or those who live in several countries, such a possibility may be very desirable. Japan CPI Reuters Business discusses the situation in Japan in its post. Japan's core consumer inflation accelerated to a 40-year high in October, driven by currency weakness and imported cost pressures that the central bank shrugs off as it sticks to a policy of ultra-low interest rates. Read more: https://t.co/AoJ6rkjSBw pic.twitter.com/DGaEal1df9 — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) November 18, 2022 Many economies around the world have been struggling with high inflation since the beginning of this year. Japanese inflation has been low for a long time. In October, it rose for the first time, reaching its highest level in 40 years. The activities of the Bank of Japan were dovish, which largely translates into the yen (JPY) exchange rate and the economic situation of the country. The Bank of Japan has made several interventions in the foreign exchange market, but economists do not expect the BOJ to join a global trend of raising interest rates. The more the question arises, will there be another intervention?
    USA: Final Q3 GDP amounts to 3.2%. Subtle Micron earnings

    Turbulent times on crude oil market. Nasdaq shrank by 2%, Apple and Amazon lost more

    Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 07.12.2022 10:24
    Equities extend the downside recovery, following the failure to clear an important year-to-date resistance last week, which was the S&P500's year-to-date descending channel top at around the 4080 level. The index cleared the first bearish target, at 3956 level, the minor 23.6% retracement on the latest rebound and tested its 100-DMA to the downside, but managed to close above that level. Nasdaq slumped 2%, with Apple retreating more than 2.50% while Amazon lost 3% as investors dumped technology stocks faster than the others.   And even oil giants joined the selloff this week. Exxon lost more than 2.50% both on Monday and on Tuesday, as the latest drop in oil prices didn't help improve the mood.   The American crude lost more than 7% since the weekly open. If Monday's fall was mostly driven by a global market selloff, yesterday's selloff was definitely due to the EIA revising its oil production forecast higher for next year, after having cut this prediction for the past five months.   Read next: Presumably, stronger-than-expected ISM affected stocks. Aussie gained from the RBA decision | FXMAG.COM So, now, the EIA expects the US to pump around 12.34 mio barrels per day in 2023, approaching the historical high production of 2019.   Yesterday's selloff sent the barrel of Brent crude below the $80 mark for the first time since the very beginning of this year, and pulled the barrel of American crude a couple of cents below the late November dip, at around $73.40. And even the API data – which showed a 6.4-mio-barrel drop in US oil inventories couldn't bring the oil bulls in. The more official EIA data is due today. Trend and momentum indicators hint that the recession fears could well push the barrel of oil toward the $70pb despite falling oil reserves in the US.     Russian oil price cap is a warning for OPEC  What's good about the falling oil prices is that the Russian oil cap becomes somehow meaningless as prices fall, though the Europeans said to revise the cap every two months. For now, there is not much to worry apart from a couple of vessels carrying Russian oil that are stuck near Turkey as Turks ask insurance apparently to let them sail away.   But here is the thing. The fact that the G7, the EU and Australia agreed to cap the price of Russian oil gave a strong message to the rest of the oil producers: they could do the same with OPEC.  So far, US President Joe Biden reassured OPEC that this is not a 'buyers' league' and that the decisions apply only to Russia. But we can't stop thinking that if OPEC goes severely against the US' will to stop messing around with oil prices, there is no reason we won't see a buyers' league emerge from the darkness.
    Amazon, Google, Microsoft And Oracle Received A Cloud Deal From The Pentagon

    Amazon, Google, Microsoft And Oracle Received A Cloud Deal From The Pentagon

    Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 08.12.2022 11:34
    Using the cloud is better when there are multiple providers of remotely hosted infrastructure technology, as opposed to relying on one company according to the U.S. Defense Department. What's more, there is a lot of information about the Chinese economy, as well as about QFII.  Read next: Nigeria Bans Cash Withdrawal Higher Than 225$ To Encourage CBDC Use | FXMAG.COM In this article: Money Talks podcast Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor One of the greatest transformations in retail A cloud deal The potential impact of China’s reopening China is once again struggling with the problem of growing infections. To this end, they have closed their economy under the zero-covid policy. As the second largest economy in the world, it has a significant impact on smaller economies and markets. Recently, there has been information about the easing of restrictions, and thus the financial markets, especially those in Asia, have experienced a revival. In a podcast hosted by APAC Chief Economist Andrew Tilton, you can learn about other impacts of reopening the Chinese economy. Listen to our Chief APAC Economist Andrew Tilton discuss the potential impact of China’s reopening on this week’s Money Talks podcast from The Economist: https://t.co/2wW6YFLDhr https://t.co/p4BTFHkuAv — Goldman Sachs (@GoldmanSachs) December 8, 2022   Opening-up of China's qualified foreign institutional investor program Foreign financial institutions expect further reform and opening-up of China's qualified foreign institutional investor program. Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) is a term used to describe a program launched by the Chinese government in 2002 that enables foreign institutional investors to gain direct access to trade “A-shares” of Chinese stocks, denominated in China's renminbi/yuan (RMB), on Chinese stock exchanges. Over the past 20 years, the number of participants in the program has expanded. Currently, the types of investments that can be traded under the QFII system include listed equities, government bonds, corporate bonds, convertible bonds, commodity futures and other financial instruments. With the development and changes in the markets, it is required to introduce references also in QFII. Deutsche Bank’s Li Zhan says that as China opens up its #QFII programme even more, it will help enrich the structure of China’s capital market. Read more: https://t.co/U0gn0oedN0 #SecuritiesServices @DBCorporateBank pic.twitter.com/jEVJ9ETuHD — Deutsche Bank (@DeutscheBank) December 8, 2022 One of the greatest transformations in retail Today, shoppers have much more choice in what they buy, how they buy and where. It still matters to belong to a given brand. Companies have to compete much more to get a customer. Walmart is now the world's largest retailer - with more than 10,000 stores in 24 countries - but its growth story continues. You can learn about the vision and goals of CEO Of Walmart from the conversation about which the author of the tweet writes. Walmart pulled off one of the greatest transformations in retail. Morgan Stanley speaks with CEO, Doug McMillon, about his vision for future growth. Watch the full episode at https://t.co/F4puMPZFw8. pic.twitter.com/jE4GUm80ae — Morgan Stanley (@MorganStanley) December 7, 2022 Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Oracle received a cloud-computing contract Of the four companies receiving cloud-computing contracts from the Pentagon. Last year, the Pentagon changed its approach, asking for bids from Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Oracle to meet its cloud needs. The purpose of this agreement is to provide the Department of Defense with globally available enterprise-wide cloud services across all security domains and classification levels. Having more than one cloud can make organizations more confident that they can withstand service disruptions caused by downtime. Correction: Google, Oracle, Amazon and Microsoft awarded Pentagon cloud deal of up to $9 billion combinedhttps://t.co/LhIaVvb2yc — CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) December 8, 2022  
    Doubts Surround Euro Amid European Economic Concerns and Political Speeches

    Vietnamese Warehouse Equipment Maker Sues Amazon, Musk once again sold Tesla shares, Warner Bros. Discovery Inc Has Problems With High Costs

    Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 15.12.2022 12:29
    Warner Bros. Discovery Inc continues to cut costs and expects restructuring costs to increase by up to $1 billion than anticipated less than two months ago. Amazon sued for breach of contract. Once again, Elon Musk decided to sell Tesla shares, leaving himself 13.4%. Amazon is sued The Vietnamese warehouse equipment maker says in a lawsuit filed in New York on Tuesday that it has dramatically expanded its operations in eight years to accommodate Amazon's rapid growth. This included setting up more manufacturing facilities, more than doubling the workforce, and cutting ties with other large retail clients such as IKEA, Columbia Sportswear Co. and Decathlon S.A. Gilimex said Amazon scaled up its purchases in 2020 and 2021, when e-commerce sales were booming as the pandemic shifted consumer behavior, then sharply pulled back orders this year as online sales growth slowed. Gilimex said the partnership was built on "trust" and Gilimex relied on the accuracy of Amazon's forecasts to make appropriate investments to meet demand, including purchasing materials and arranging capacity and manpower to meet the US company's needs. The lawsuit, which alleges breach of contract, breach of fiduciary duty, unfair trade practices and negligent misrepresentation, was filed in the New York State Supreme Court. The lawsuit said the change resulted in "immediate and virtually complete destruction of Gilimex's business." Gilimex seeks approximately $280 million in damages to recover costs. Read next: From the fundamental point of view, these facts may become a game changer, sending the EUR/USD pair to the parity level | FXMAG.COM Warner Bros. Discovery Inc and cost problems Warner Bros. Discovery Inc, whose holding companies include film and television studios, CNN and HBO, and Discovery channels such as Food Network and HGTV, said in a statement Wednesday that it expects to incur pre-tax restructuring costs of as much as $5.3 billion by 2024. In October, it said it anticipated as much as $4.3 billion in restructuring fees. Since the conclusion of the Discovery and WarnerMedia merger earlier this year, there have been significant layoffs, including executives at the major units. Many high-profile projects and programs have also been killed or cancelled. Warner Bros. Discovery said it still expects restructuring initiatives to be completed by the end of 2024. Last month, the company raised its cost synergy target to $3.5 billion from $3 billion. It also has debt of about $50 billion. The company's shares fell 1.1% in Wednesday's after-hours trading. Musk holds 13.4% of Tesla shares Musk sold nearly 22 million Tesla shares in the three days ending December 14. This week's sale means Tesla's CEO has sold more than $39 billion worth of Tesla shares since the company's shares peaked in November 2021. Tesla, still the world's most valued carmaker by value. Tesla's CEO previously sold the company's shares in April, August and November this year, linking the last two batches of sales to Twitter. This month's sale leaves Musk with about 13.4% of Tesla, meaning he remains by far the company's largest shareholder. Still, the sale of shares could weaken his control over Tesla. It wasn't clear what prompted Musk to sell the extra Tesla shares. Mr Musk's focus on Twitter has irked some Tesla investors as the company tracks its worst annual stock price performance ever. Read next: Given the peculiarities of the US labor market and the high labor mobility, the acceptable unemployment rate is considered to be 5.0%| FXMAG.COM Tesla shares closed up 2.58% on Wednesday at $156.80, their lowest level in more than two years. The company's stock price drop of around 55% in 2022 overshadowed that of the Nasdaq Composite, which has fallen around 29% since the beginning of the year. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com
    Bank of Japan to welcome Kazuo Ueda as its new governor

    Bank Of Japan Threw A Hawkish Bomb | A Quiet Trading Week Is Expected

    Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 27.12.2022 11:21
    It has been quite a quiet start to the week with many major markets still closed for Xmas holiday, but no one saw Santa coming this year, have you? Japan, Azazon, USD On the contrary, the Bank of Japan led drama across the global financial markets reminded that the year will certainly not end on a positive footage, Amazon became the first US megacap to lose more than a trillion USD in market cap, and the expectations for the S&P500 are very much mixed… …even though the last trading week of the year is expected to be marked by a ‘Santa rally’. US PCE data, China A few encouraging news could, indeed, give a minor boost to equity markets, among them the softer US PCE data, and the Chinese reopening news despite hundreds of millions of new Covid cases that threaten a smooth coming back. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:31 Kuroda bangs the last nail on Santa’s coffin 4:16 US inflation gives further easing signs 5:19 But stock investors may not get too excited… 6:17 Amazon lost $1 trillion market cap 8:28 Expect thin trading before year-end 8:56 Hectic China reopening could still boost crude oil Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #hawkish #BoJ #ECB #Fed #USD #EUR #GBP #JPY #Amazon #crudeoil #China #Covid #reopening #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
    Kim Cramer Larsson's technical analyses of DAX and EuroStoxx 50

    European stocks closed mixed. The DAX 40 fell 0.50%, the CAC 40 declined 0.61%, while the FTSE 100 rose 0.32%

    Intertrader Market News Intertrader Market News 29.12.2022 10:20
    DAILY MARKET NEWSLETTER December 29, 2022               Pre-Market Session News Sentiment Technical Views           EUR/USD   Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)   Brent (ICE)                 Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.                     Price Movement Analyst Views Target Pivot   Dax (Eurex) 13,937.00 -52.00 (-0.37%) Read the analysis 13,900.00 13,990.00     FTSE 100 (ICE Europe) 0.00 0.00 (0.00%) Read the analysis 7,500.00 7,450.00     S&P 500 (CME) 3,810.00 +2.50 (+0.07%) Read the analysis 3,788.00 3,837.00     Nasdaq 100 (CME) 10,796.50 +23.75 (+0.22%) Read the analysis 10,700.00 10,890.00     Dow Jones (CME) 33,021.00 -25.00 (-0.08%) Read the analysis 32,920.00 33,240.00     Crude Oil (WTI) 78.47 -0.49 (-0.62%) Read the analysis 79.10 77.90     Gold 1,808.20 +3.845 (+0.21%) Read the analysis 1,814.00 1,801.00                     MARKET WRAP           Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, CommoditiesOn Wednesday, U.S. stocks remained under pressure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 365 points (-1.10%) to 32,875, the S&P 500 fell 46 points (-1.20%) to 3,783, and the Nasdaq 100 was down 143 points (-1.32%) to 10,679.Technology hardware & equipment (-2.67%), energy (-2.22%), and consumer durables & apparel (-2.17%) sectors lost the most.Apple (AAPL) slid 3.07% on concerns that a potential recession would impact demand for the company's products. Amazon.com (AMZN) fell 1.47%.Southwest Airlines (LUV) declined 5.16% following its mass flight cancellations and delays due to winter storms in the U.S.MicroStrategy (MSTR), a big bitcoin-holding listed-company, sank 6.53% as the company sold some of its Bitcoins for the first time ever.From a technical point of view, Chevron (CVX), IBM (IBM), and Visa (V) crossed under their 50-day moving average.Regarding U.S. economic data, the number of pending home sales fell for a sixth consecutive month in November, declining 4.0% on month (vs -0.9% expected).The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield advanced 4.4 basis points to 3.885%.European stocks closed mixed. The DAX 40 fell 0.50%, the CAC 40 declined 0.61%, while the FTSE 100 rose 0.32%.U.S. WTI crude futures dropped $0.90 to $78.67 a barrel.Gold price was down $9 to $1,804 an ounce.Market Wrap: ForexThe U.S. dollar index climbed to 104.52.EUR/USD fell 29 pips to 1.0611.USD/JPY jumped 96 pips to 134.45. The Bank of Japan issued a summary of opinions from its latest policy meeting, showing that policymakers backed a continuation of ultra-accommodative policy. GBP/USD declined 7 pips to 1.2018.AUD/USD added 6 pips to 0.6738.USD/CHF edged up 4 pips to 0.9294, and USD/CAD gained 85 pips to 1.3608.Bitcoin traded further lower to $16,490.Morning TradingIn Asian trading hours, USD/JPY retreated to 133.72.Meanwhile, EUR/USD edged up to 1.0625 and GBP/USD climbed to 1.2035.Gold rebounded to $1,807.Bitcoin remained subdued at $16,523.Expected TodayThe eurozone's November M3 money supply is expected to grow 4.8% on year.In the U.S., weekly initial jobless claims are estimated at 220,000.           UK MARKET NEWS           Basic Resources, chemicals and insurance shares gained most in London on Friday.From a relative strength vs FTSE 100 point of view, Aviva (+0.81% to 447.6p), Barclays (+0.72% to 158.88p) crossed above their 50-day moving average.           ECONOMIC CALENDAR           Time Event Forecast Importance   08:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Dec/24) 220k MEDIUM     08:30 Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Dec/24) 225k LOW     08:30 Continuing Jobless Claims (Dec/17) 1.671M LOW     10:30 EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (Dec/23) -201Bcf LOW     11:00 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Dec/23) 520k MEDIUM     11:00 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Dec/23) -1.52M MEDIUM     11:00 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change (Dec/23)   LOW     11:00 EIA Distillate Stocks Change (Dec/23) -2.05M LOW     11:00 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change (Dec/23)   LOW     11:00 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change (Dec/23)   LOW     11:00 EIA Gasoline Production Change (Dec/23)   LOW     11:00 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change (Dec/23)   LOW     11:00 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change (Dec/23)   LOW     11:30 8-Week Bill Auction   LOW     11:30 4-Week Bill Auction   LOW     13:00 7-Year Note Auction   LOW                                     NEWS SENTIMENT           Argo Group Ltd ARGO : LSE 11.00 GBp 0.00% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   AstraZeneca PLC AZN : LSE 11,250.00 GBp -0.50% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   BP PLC BP. : LSE 480.40 GBp +0.52% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Diageo PLC DGE : LSE 3,668.50 GBp +0.15% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Fresnillo PLC FRES : LSE 891.60 GBp +2.37% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Neutral       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   CVS Group PLC CVSG : LSE 1,985.00 GBp +1.12% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                           TECHNICAL VIEWS           EUR/USD Intraday: under pressure.   Pivot: 1.0645   Our preference: Short positions below 1.0645 with targets at 1.0605 & 1.0590 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 1.0645 look for further upside with 1.0660 & 1.0675 as targets.   Comment: As long as the resistance at 1.0645 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.0605 remains high.                     Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)‎ (H3)‎ Intraday: under pressure.   Pivot: 3823.00   Our preference: Short positions below 3823.00 with targets at 3785.00 & 3770.00 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 3823.00 look for further upside with 3842.00 & 3858.00 as targets.   Comment: The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%                     Brent (ICE)‎ (H3)‎ Intraday: the bias remains bullish.   Pivot: 83.00   Our preference: Long positions above 83.00 with targets at 84.10 & 84.80 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 83.00 look for further downside with 82.50 & 81.90 as targets.   Comment: The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.        
    FX Daily: Resuming the Norm – Dollar Gains Momentum as Quarter-End Flows Fade

    Real bargains on Wall Street, Barron's point to, i.a. Google and Amazon as undervalued stocks

    Pawel Zapolski Pawel Zapolski 30.12.2022 13:59
    Among the 10 great investment opportunities for 2023, identified by analysts of the famous portal Barron's , were Alphabet and Amazon. 2022 was not a good year for the stock market. The S&P 500 fell by about a fifth, and many large, solid companies lost much more on valuation. The famous investor portal Barron's decided to make an interesting list of important and highly undervalued companies from the American stock exchange, and we decided to take a look at them in search of interesting indications. Alphabet needs weight loss It turned out that Barron's list includes well-known, large technology companies: Alphabet and Amazon. And that's what caught our attention. Big Techs were heavily discounted due to the rising cost of money - the Fed had no mercy when it came to tightening monetary policy. 10 bets of Barron's for 2023 Source: Barron's Let's start with Google's parent company, whose valuation has fallen by a third in the past year. Its revenue growth slowed, and investors worried about the decline in advertising on the famous search engine. At $95, Alphabet 's stock is currently trading at 18x its 2023 earnings projections, and the P/E ratio will be even lower when you factor in losses at other companies, including Waymo , the leader in self-driving vehicles. Barron 's columnists point out that famous investors Joe Rosenberg and Chris Hohn recently raised the issue of high costs, and even wrote a letter to the president of Alphabet Sundar Pichai . It may be hard to believe, but employment at Alphabet has doubled since 2018. Certainly, Alphabet needs "weight loss". Alphabet should also pay dividends, something that is typical of a mature and profitable company that went public 18 years ago, Barron's analysts stress . Alphabet quotes   Source: Trading View Amazon needs to start making money in the retail segment Online retail giant Amazon has halved its valuation in 2022, from $1.7 trillion to $834 billion. No one expected this at the beginning of January. This happened not only because of the rate hikes, but also because of the slowdown in sales of cloud-computing services . But according to Barron's analysts, the coming year should be better as Jeff Bezos ' company cuts costs and increases the efficiency of its online operations. In the last 3 years, it has invested USD 80 billion in its development. Barron's notes the opinion of SVB MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Morton, who recently started watching Amazon and admittedly gave "overweight" with a price target of $118, but estimated that Amazon 's retail segment has negative operating margins after excluding lucrative ad revenue. He stressed that Amazon needs to make a profit in its retail business if it is thinking of increasing its stock market valuation. With 50x next year's profits, Amazon's stock isn't cheap, but few companies have two dominant businesses with so much value and such good prospects, Barron's columnists point out . In the case of Bezos , the other leg is the profitable cloud business Amazon Web Services, which has great growth potential, according to Barron's analysts. Amazon quotes   Source: Trading View
    French Industrial Production Rebounds in July Amid Weak Demand and Gloomy Outlook

    Walmart Has Ambitions To Become An E-Commerce Leader

    Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 02.01.2023 10:01
    Stores are increasingly expanding their activities by creating online stores. The increase in interest in online shopping has contributed to this. Amazon remains the top leader, but Walmart is hot on Amazon's heels. There are many arguments for the introduction of digital money, mainly environmental protection. Work on CBDC is constantly progressing, and developing the right washing conditions is a key issue. In this article: Digital money Walmart’s ambitious new plans Digital money is getting closer and closer to common use Digital money is getting closer and closer to common use. Many countries are testing their CBDC pilot programs. The main problem with this type of money is the issue of regulation. During the pandemic, there has been growth in this area, with governments accelerating the digital delivery of key government services. Tax authorities are increasingly using e-filing and e-payment systems and digital technologies to improve compliance management, helping to reduce tax evasion and increase revenue mobilisation. Digital technologies also improve the efficiency and effectiveness of public finance management systems and processes, including budget preparation and execution, cash and debt management, e-procurement, financial reporting and auditing, and social program administration. Digital forms of money are diverse and evolving rapidly. The opportunities are vast, but the challenges facing policy makers are also stark, complex and widespread. The most far-reaching implications concern the stability of the international monetary system. Digital money needs to be designed and regulated in such a way that countries reap its potential benefits, including greater financial integration and more efficient cross-border payments. As more countries adopt new forms of digital money, the IMF has designed its policy advice to help countries and create a more stable international monetary system. Read the 2022 #IMFAnnualReport https://t.co/1oApvPc1ek pic.twitter.com/HTGpYxEzw6 — IMF (@IMFNews) January 1, 2023 Read next: The First Inflation Data In The New Year From Europe May Show A Decline| FXMAG.COM Walmart’s ambitious new plans Online shopping has increased in recent years. Around the world, online shopping was mostly associated with Amazon. There is no doubt that Amazon is a leader in this industry. For retailers, it may be a major problem, but for Amazon's competitors, they are also constantly evolving. Mainly due to the pandemic, stores such as Walmart took advantage of the situation to develop their online business. The global health crisis has also fueled Walmart's sense of urgency to better compete with Amazon. Walmart is leveraging two key strengths to drive its e-commerce business: approximately 4,700 stores in the United States and its dominance in the grocery industry. Ninety percent of Americans live within 10 miles of a Walmart store. Walmart is using its stores as launch pads for delivery drones and drop-off points for direct deliveries to refrigerators, and will soon begin packing and shipping third-party retailers' goods from stores. Such actions can bring Walart many benefits and even make him a leader. When it comes to e-commerce, Amazon is the clear leader, but Walmart’s ambitious new plans and leadership are trying to catch up. Watch the video to learn more. https://t.co/0Y1nS89IOK pic.twitter.com/qLwFcrkB3U — CNBC (@CNBC) January 2, 2023
    Twitter And Elon Musk Faced A Growing List Of Claims

    Twitter Did Not Pay $136,260 Rent, Microsoft Reported Its Worst Quarterly Results In Years

    Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 02.01.2023 12:04
    Twitter has been struggling with new problems since the beginning of the year. This time he was accused of not paying the rent. Other tech companies are also having problems. 2022 was not the best year for Meta or Mircrosoft stocks. Twitter has another problem While Elon Musk has been working to cut costs on Twitter since he took over the company in October. More problems arise. Recently there has been an inflromation that the social platform will experience technical difficulties in using the computer version. Today there was information about financial problems. The owner, Columbia Reit-650 California LLC, says the social media company failed to pay $136,260 in owed rent for office space at 650 California St. The lawsuit alleging breach of contract was filed in the California Supreme Court in San Francisco. Other companies, including a software provider and a transportation company, have also sued Twitter in recent weeks in an effort to recover overdue payments. Can this prove that under the leadership of a businessman, Twitter is struggling with serious financial problems. What's more, according to Twitter data, hasn't booked an annual profit since 2019. Even though the new year has brought some shocking news about Twitter, its shares are above 50 and thus are the highest. Read next: Walmart Has Ambitions To Become An E-Commerce Leader| FXMAG.COM It was a tough time for tech stocks The future outlook is an important aspect when buying stocks, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. For most of the past decade, investors have focused on high-growth tech stocks whose strong year-over-year returns have convinced them they have no choice but to grow. Soaring stocks like Facebook's parent company Meta Platforms Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Netflix Inc. and owner of Google Alphabet Inc. caused the major indices to hit dozens of new highs. The trade has become so popular that it has its own acronym: FAANG. Meta dropped 64% in 2022; Netflix dropped 51%; the other three shares fell at least 27%. Together, FAANG shares have lost more than $3 trillion in market value, helping to pull the wider stock market down with it. As consumers and businesses tighten their belts to prepare for a potential recession, tech companies that seemed immune to the economic woes of the pandemic have seen their revenues plummet. Companies like Microsoft reported their worst quarterly results in years. Amazon and Meta announced layoffs. When interest rates were close to zero, investors were more willing to pay for growth stocks and risky assets in search of higher returns. However, with the Fed raising interest rates at the fastest pace since the 1980s, the market environment began to favor investments, which now generate cash for the holder. Even after tech stocks ran out last year, the sector still looks expensive compared to the wider market. Although the tech stock market has not been positive lately, MSFT prices have kept their prices above 200. The second half of last year was quite weak for this company's stock and mostly in a downtrend, but prices remained mostly above 225. MSFT share price Meta shares also had their worst period recently, with the price mostly staying around 120. Meta share price Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com
    Astonished by the week ahead? Barclays, NatWest Group and Microsoft earnings are also released shortly

    Amazon is steadier thanks to its high-margin AWS cloud business, while Apple may hold up better than most as Chinese stimulus boosts iPhone sales

    Yohay Elam Yohay Elam 04.01.2023 13:51
    To some market participants first days of January may come as unattractive and even boring. In some places, echo of holiday season still can be noticed, but it seems there are cases (like Eurozone inflation and FOMC meeting minutes) market participants can think about while waiting for actual big ones. In the near future they are earnings, that could be real game-changers especially in times of spectacular decreases of Tesla, Apple and Amazon stock prices. Let's hear from Yohay Elam, Senior analyst at FXStreet. Eurozone inflation has come out significantly lower than expected, a fall driven by the plunge in energy costs. The new year has kicked off with exceptionally warm temperatures, promising further falls in headline inflation. While these developments may weaken the argument for further ECB tightening, the fall in gas prices may allow European to spend on other goods and especially services, solidifying core inflation and strengthening hawks supporting further aggressive rate hikes. All in all, any inflation-related fall in the euro will likely be short-lived. In its' Meeting Minutes, the Fed may opt to push back against bond markets' pricing of rate cuts coming in H2 2023 Markets have been highly sensitive to economic releases in 2022, and the first week of 2023 is likely to be no exception. In its' Meeting Minutes, the Fed may opt to push back against bond markets' pricing of rate cuts coming in H2 2023. Such a scenario would follow previous guidance and may catch investors off guard, boosting the dollar. Nonfarm Payrolls has lost the top spot among market movers to inflation data. Nevertheless, any deviation from expectations is set to trigger considerable price action. Read next: Exxon And Chevron Abandon The Global Market And Focus On The Americas| FXMAG.COM Tech stocks have yet to find a bottom, as uncertainty about the path of interest rates remains high. Tesla is under pressure due to Elon Musk's distractions and growing competition in the EV space. Amazon is steadier thanks to its high-margin AWS cloud business, while Apple may hold up better than most as Chinese stimulus boosts iPhone sales.
    Russia Look Set To Double Its Exports For The First Half Of 2023

    Russia Look Set To Double Its Wheat Exports For The First Half Of 2023

    Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 05.01.2023 09:00
      Summary:  Equity markets managed to keep an even keel yesterday, with a lack of direction in US equity markets continuing well into its third week. Late yesterday, the minutes from the last FOMC meeting offered the latest pushback against market expectations for rate cuts as soon as year-end, while gold and especially the JPY eased back lower from their recent strength on treasury yields halting their slide. Tomorrow’s US jobs report for December offers the next test for global markets.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) The US equity market once again chopped back and forth yesterday as the action has been bottled up in a range in the S&P 500 for nearly three weeks. The market may be waiting for the next batch of US data and the impact on treasury yields for choosing a direction, with tomorrow’s batch of data the next important hurdle for markets. The technical focus for S&P 500 traders is the range low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 3,780 for the March futures contract. For Nasdaq 100 trader, the cycle low near 10, 750 and the nominal intraday lows from last October a bit lower still are the key focus. Ironically, strong US economy data may be the most negative for equity markets in the short run if yields jump. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HIF3) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index climbed more than 1% and CSI300 surged nearly 2% as China continue to roll out additional reopening measures and supports to the economy. On Thursday, China announced the much-anticipated gradual reopening of the border between Hong Kong and the mainland starting from January 8, 2023. Internet platform giants Alibaba (09988:xhkg) and Meituan (03690:xhkg), China restaurant chain Haidilao (06862:xhg), beer brewers China Resources Beer (00291:xhkg) and Budweiser (01876:xhkg) were among the top gainers within the Hang Seng Index. In A-shares, baijiu (Chinese white liquor) surged in anticipation of rebound in consumption. Electric equipment, household electronic appliances, and logistics stocks also outperformed. FX: JPY rally reversed, USDCNH testing key levels The US dollar found a modicum of support yesterday as treasury yields stabilized and as the Fed delivered the expected message in its latest set of meeting minutes – a pushback against market expectations for the Fed to cut rates as soon as this year. The next important step for the USD will be on tomorrow’s December jobs report and next Thursday’s December CPI release. USDJPY bounced well above 132.00 after its recent test below 130.00 on signs that the yen’s recent surge may need more support from new developments (a larger drop in global yields in particular) after resetting from 150.00+ in USDJPY terms. The Chinese yuan continued its resurgence on hopes for a boost to Chinese growth on the other side of the current Covid trauma, with USDCNH testing its 200-day moving average near 6.87 for the first time since April. Crude oil (CLG3 & LCOH3) Crude oil found a bid on Wednesday following a two-day tumble of more than 9% tumble on China demand and global growth worries. The bounce has so far primarily been driven by short covering while also signalling an end to selling from funds who bought the market aggressively ahead of yearend. For now, a surge in Covid-19 cases across China is clouding the near-term demand outlook, overshadowing optimism and delaying the timing of when commodity consumption in the world’s top importer will eventually rebound. The API reported a 3.3-million-barrel increase in US crude stocks with gasoline stocks also rising while distillates dropped. The EIA will release its weekly report later today. Gold (XAUUSD) sees increased two-way action after hitting fresh six-month high Gold’s run of gains extended to a fourth day on Wednesday but after touching $1865 some two-way actions emerged potentially signalling traders have started to book profit. Gold, silver and platinum have been favoured by traders during the first days of trading, with momentum from last year being carried over. Driven by recession and stock market valuation risks, an eventual peak in central bank rates combined with the prospect of a weaker dollar and inflation not returning to the expected sub-3% level by yearend. It is worth remembering that traders' conviction at the beginning of a new year always tends to be low for fear of catching the wrong move. At the same time, however, the fear of missing out can also drive a rapid build-up in positioning which subsequently can be left exposed should a change in direction occur. Focus on Friday’s US job report with resistance at $1865 & $1878 while the current strong uptrend may not be challenged unless the price breaks below $1800 Europe’s gas price (TTFMc1) slump continues Europe’s gas prices have fallen by more than 50% during the past month and on Wednesday the Dutch TTF futures contract closed at €65/MWH ($20/MMBtu), the lowest since October 2021. The slump has been driven by a combination of mild weather and at times strong production from renewables as well as reduced industrial consumption resulting in an unusual seasonal increase in inventories. Gas held in storage across Europe is currently 164 TWh above the five-year average and close to a full month of peak winter withdrawals. With LNG imports still strong and demand down by more than 10% the continent has now ended up in a situation, unthinkable just a couple of few months ago, where prices need to stay low in order to divert LNG shipments away from Europe in order not to overwhelm storage facilities. Wheat (ZWc1) tumbles on ample Black Sea supply. The Chicago wheat contract has lost more than 5% during the first trading days to trade near a one-month low. Forced lower by an abundance of low-price wheat from Russia and Ukraine providing stiff competition to U.S. exporters where production has been hit by drought, and recently, by severe cold. Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, look set to double its exports to a record 21.3 million tons for the first half of 2023. This following a record grain crop of 151.0 million tons last year, including 102.7 million tons of wheat. In addition to strong Russian shipments, European Union soft-wheat exports are running about 6% higher than a year earlier, and Australia’s top shipper loaded a monthly record 2.18 million tons of grain in December. Yields on US Treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) stabilized after their steep fall to start the year US Treasury yields arrested their descent yesterday after the 10-year benchmark hit 3.66%, rising a few basis points. At the short end of the curve, yield pulled back slightly higher as well, perhaps lifted at the margin by a strong JOLTS survey for November and the ISM Manufacturing survey showing a stronger employment sub-index. The price action was little affected by the FOMC minutes release, which saw the Fed continuing its pushback against market expectations for easing as soon as year-end. Tomorrow’s US data, including the December jobs report and ISM Services Index, offer the next test for the treasury market. Read next: The EUR/USD Pair Is Trading Above 1.06 Again, The USD/JPY Pair Is Close To Level Of 131| FXMAG.COM What is going on? France’s inflation is cooling down BUT… Inflation is cooling down in several eurozone countries. France is the last example. In December, the EU-harmonized CPI rose 6.7 % year-over-year versus expected 7.3 %. On a monthly basis, inflation decreased 0.1 % versus expected +0.4 %. This is positive, of course. But it will likely not be sufficient for monetary policy to shift out of tightening mode just yet. There is a high risk that inflation will increase again in Spring/Summer this year due to higher energy prices. This could be fueled by a deficit in the oil market due to OPEC+ cuts and EU ban on Russian oil and difficulties filling gas inventories for next year in the EU. Therefore, it is too early to believe the peak in inflation is effectively behind us in the eurozone. The FOMC minutes sent out mixed messages FOMC participants worried that the downshift from a 75bp hike to a 50-hike would be interpreted by the market as the signal of a pivot and warned that “an unwarranted easing in financial conditions, especially if driven by a misperception by the public of the committee’s reaction function, would complicate the committee’s effort to restore price stability”. Nonetheless, the minutes showed that “many” participants argued for balancing two risks: the risk “insufficiently restrictive monetary policy could cause inflation to remain above the Committee’s target for longer than anticipated” and the other risk of “the lagged cumulative effect of policy tightening could end up being more restrictive than is necessary to bring down inflation to 2 percent and lead to an unnecessary reduction in economic activity”. That points to a data-dependent risk management approach going forward. Separately, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said in an article that he saw rate hikes “at least at the next few meetings”, leading to a terminal rate of 5.25-5.50%. UK Mortgage Approvals plunged in November A clear sign that higher interest rates are impacting the UK housing market, approvals plunged to 46.1k in November, a stunning drop from 59k in October and for wider perspective, a sign of very weak activity relative to the average of well over 60k approvals per month in the years before the pandemic outbreak. Amazon to lay off over 18k employees This was more than previously expected as the company over-expanded its warehouse and logistics infrastructure after the wild increase in demand from pandemic-era stimulus. Shares rose some 1.7% after hours yesterday. US House of Representatives still has no speaker The narrow Republican majority in the House after the mid-term elections last November means that nearly all Republicans must agree on a candidate, with a small cabal of Trumpist-leaning Republicans continuing to block the candidacy of Keven McCarthy, who failed three more votes yesterday in his effort to become the next Speaker of the House. This issue could gain considerable importance for the debt ceiling issue in the US if a more confrontational figure acceptable to the GOP extremists is eventually found. What are we watching next? US data today and tomorrow Today we will get the latest weekly US jobless claims number as this data series has yet to show material weakening in the US labour market, market bets of Fed cuts by year-end notwithstanding. The December ADP Private Payrolls data is also up today, with that data series showing a rather persistent decline in payrolls growth since Q2 of last year. It is expected at +150k after +127k in November. Tomorrow’s calendar is important as the Fed has clearly expressed the most uncertainty on the inflationary pressures from the employment-intensive services side of the economy. This could make the market sensitive to strong surprises in the Nonfarm payrolls change number (expected around +200k, with considerable recent attention on the divergence in this survey relative to the far weaker household survey used to calculate the overall unemployment rate) and average hourly earnings. Ninety minutes after the jobs data, we’ll have a look at the December ISM Services survey after November saw a surprising improvement in the survey to 56.5 after the cycle low of 54.4 in October. Earnings to watch The earnings calendar is light in the first week of the new year, but in a couple of weeks the first Q4 earnings releases will begin to be released. The Q4 earnings season will continue its focus on margin pressures related to input costs on employees and raw materials including energy. Today’s earnings focus is Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) and Conagra Brands, with WBA expected to -3% revenue growth y/y for the quarter that ended on 30 November adding to the series of quarters with negative revenue growth. Conagra Brands is expected to deliver 7% revenue growth y/y for the quarter that ended on 30 November as the manufacturer of packaged foods is able to pass on inflation to its customers. Today: Walgreens Boots Alliance, Conagra Brands, Lamb Weston, Constellation Brands, RPM International Friday: Naturgy Energy Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Poland Dec. Flash CPI 0930 – UK Final Dec. Services PMI 1000 – Eurozone Nov. PPI 1000 – Italy Dec. CPI 1230 – US Dec. Challenger Job Cuts 1230 – US Fed’s Harker (2023 FOMC voter) to speak 1315 – US Dec. ADP Private Payrolls change 1330 – Canada Nov. International Merchandise Trade 1330 – US Nov. Trade Balance 1330 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 1400 – Poland National Bank Governor Glapinski press conference 1530 – EIA Natural Gas Storage Change 1600 – EIA Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report 1830 – US Fed’s Bullard (non-voter) to speak 2330 – Japan Nov. Labor Cash Earnings Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – January 5, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
    UK Manufacturing Surge Lifts Q2 Growth: Insights and Outlook

    Samsung Suffers From Weakening Demand, Amazon Will Increase The Total Number Of Layoffs To Over 18,000

    Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 05.01.2023 10:36
    The remaining cuts in Amazon will bring the total number of redundancies to over 18,000 and will be implemented in the coming weeks. Samsung also has problems and suffers from a lack of demand for its products. Samsung Macroeconomic challenges hit Samsung hard last year as companies and consumers cut back on electronics spending after a shopping boom in the early stages of the pandemic. Demand for tech will remain weak as high inflation, rising interest rates and a strong dollar weigh on sales. This led to a sharp decline in demand for goods from Samsung, the world's largest manufacturer of smartphones, televisions and semiconductors. The drop in demand is a constant challenge for Smanung. According to analysts surveyed by data provider FactSet, Samsung's operating profit for the quarter ended December 31 was projected to be almost half as much as a year earlier. Currently, Samsung leads the global smartphone market in terms of total shipments, but Apple dominates the premium smartphone market. In recent years, Samsung has battled rival Apple to defend its share of the premium smartphone market, where most of the industry's profits are generated. Apple has created an exclusive ecosystem of connected products and services that helps attract new consumers and increase their retention. Samsung plans to overcome current market challenges by strengthening the integration of connected devices and related software, an area where it has previously lagged behind rivals such as Apple Inc. For now, Samsung smartphone users can set the washing machine to complete its cycle when they get home and turn on music on the Samsung TV, and the stereo speakers will automatically turn on to the beat of the music. The user can also scan the barcode on a package of frozen hot dogs with a smartphone, and Samsung's microwave oven will heat the product according to the instructions. Samsung has created a new umbrella team made up of employees from each product unit to work to improve the user experience across multiple devices, said Han Jong-hee, vice president and general manager of the South Korean tech company. The team office includes rooms imitating real houses and other spaces where connected devices are tested and developed in many scenarios. Since October 2021, Samung shares have skyrocketed significantly. After peaking at 88,800, it declined. The year 2022 was in a downward trend. This year, the company's shares started at 55,500 and began to grow. Currently, Samsung shares are trading at 58,200. Read next: How Dream Sports Built Its Value, High Inflation And Its Impact On The Hedge Fund| FXMAG.COM Amazon The Seattle-based company said in November it was starting layoffs, with the cuts focused on its appliance, recruitment and retail business. More than 18,000 workers will be affected, the biggest cut recorded last year at a major tech company as the industry recoils amid economic uncertainty. The layoffs are concentrated within the company's corporate ranks and account for about 5% of that portion of its workforce and 1.2% of its 1.5 million employees as of September. Amazon was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Covid-19 pandemic as customers flocked to shop online. The rush into Amazon's various businesses, from e-commerce to groceries and cloud computing, has accelerated the company's years of growth. To keep up with demand, Amazon doubled its logistics network and added hundreds of thousands of employees. When demand began to wane and customers returned to in-store shopping, Amazon initiated an extensive cost-cutting review to cut back on units that were unprofitable. In the spring and summer, the company made targeted cuts to lower costs by closing physical stores and business units such as Amazon Care. Amazon later announced a company-wide hiring freeze before opting to lay off employees. Many tech companies cut jobs as the economy worsened. Last time, ending 2022, Amazon shares were below 90. They ended the year at 84.18, and are now slightly up to 87.19. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com
    The Gold Rally Is Continuing To Stall, This Could Be A Good Year For Crude Oil

    Saxo Bank Podcast: The Gold Rally Fading, Crude Oil Ripping Lower And The Japanese Yen (JPY) Mean Reverting To Weakness And More

    Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 05.01.2023 11:56
    Summary:  Today, we look at the market continuing to stumble around in the range, with little conviction emerging so far this year. Will this mean a trigger-happy reaction to incoming data? Elsewhere, we look at the gold rally fading, crude oil ripping lower and the Japanese yen mean reverting to weakness after its spectacular two-month rally, a likely sign of near-term exhaustion for that move. We also discuss Amazon chopping more jobs than expected, the still tight US labor market and much more. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Read next: The Bank Of England Urgently Needs To Tame Stubbornly High Inflation| FXMAG.COM   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: Podcast: Market stumbling around, awaiting incoming data | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
    Assessing Energy Price Dynamics and Their Impact on Inflation in the Short and Medium Term

    Amazon, Apple, and Alphabet stocks currently seem largely dependent on the overall macroeconomic sentiment and the Fed’s possible and actual moves

    Santa Zvaigzne Sproge Santa Zvaigzne Sproge 05.01.2023 13:27
    The first trading week of the year is coming to an end and as we've already said, it hasn't been that boring as many have supposed. As we're after Fed minutes and German and Spanish inflation prints, but still before Eurozone inflation and NFP, we reached out to Santa Zvaigzne-Sproge, CFA, Head of Investment Advice Department at Conotoxia Ltd. to deliver you with her view on the most recent events like mentioned macro events and striking performance of popular stocks like Tesla, Amazon and Apple. Inflation in the Eurozone for the following months may largely be determined by how cold or warm the following months will be Spain has generally faced lower inflation than other EU member states during this inflationary period - it peaked in July at 10.8% and has since lowered to 6.8% in November, while it was still above 10% in the same period in the EU. Additionally, Spain is in a more advantageous situation in terms of geographical location and heating needs during the winter season and the country has introduced various reliefs such as limits on the increase of rents and energy bills pushing the inflation lower. Furthermore, while Spain’s consumer prices rose 5.8% (lower than before), its core inflation rose to 6.9% (from 6.3% a month ago), meaning that it may not be safe to say that Spain has retained its inflation. Germany may be a better indicator for the whole Eurozone, although it is in a better position than many other EU member states in terms of dealing with inflation (such as the newly introduced solidarity surcharge to finance the energy price cap, which not only supports the government’s budget to cover the energy price spikes for the households but also keeps companies’ profits lower and therefore limiting the “fuel” for further inflation). If we consider that one of the key inflation drivers in the EU is heating and energy prices, inflation in the Eurozone for the following months may largely be determined by how cold or warm the following months will be. Considering that heating will be needed for a large part of the EU for at least 3 more months, the ongoing geopolitical conflict leading to food supply difficulties, and the still decreasing unemployment rates in both the EU and Eurozone, there may not be any strong reason to believe that the Eurozone’s inflation data is headed for particular improvement. It's a quite long way to another Fed decision, would you consider this week's Fed minutes and NFP as real guideposts? The Federal Reserve’s minutes this week perpetuated the already expressed opinion of a restrictive policy stance, which may be confirmed by higher-than-expected non-farm payroll data on Friday. It would be useful to pay attention to the NFP data not only from the actual vs forecast perspective but also current vs a previous couple of months as well as revision of actual data perspectives – increases in both of these measures may be considered as another indicator of still overheating economy. Amazon’s stock price touched what seems to be an important support level on 28 December (closed at 81.82 USD) I would like to separate Tesla from the rest of the group as the company is considerably more unpredictable and seems to largely depend on Elon Musk’s activities. As investors are currently looking at safer investments, we may see further selloffs of Tesla stocks. Technically, besides the 100 USD level, the one last major support left for the stock price is its 100-month moving average currently standing at 88 USD. Amazon, Apple, and Alphabet stocks currently seem largely dependent on the overall macroeconomic sentiment and the Fed’s possible and actual moves in the following months. Based on the hawkish stance still held by the Fed officials, we may expect to see further lows also for these companies, but for different reasons in comparison to Tesla. Read next: Tesla rebounded 5.12%, General Motors rose 2.57%, Micron Technology traded 7.6% higher, and Meta Platforms rose 2.11%| FXMAG.COM Furthermore, Amazon’s stock price touched what seems to be an important support level on 28 December (closed at 81.82 USD) and since then has started moving higher. It is worth monitoring its further price movements and looking for a pivot in the current trend. Amazon also has fallen the most among these three stocks and currently trades at a 1.5x price to next year’s sales ratio. For comparison, Alphabet and Apple are still trading at 4x and 5x price to next year’s sales ratio accordingly. Santa Zvaigzne-Sproge, CFA, Head of Investment Advice Department at Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement, or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76,41% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
    Lagarde's Dilemma: Balancing Eurozone's Slowdown and Inflation Pressure

    US Stocks: Amazon (AMZN) and Salesforce (CRM) lay off employees

    Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 05.01.2023 20:00
    It’s been a mixed day of trade in Europe and the US is poised to open marginally lower as traders take a step back following a lively start to the year. The Fed minutes may have put a slight dampener on things although I’m not entirely sure. The narrative from the central bank is very much in line with what we should expect. Policymakers are desperately trying to convince markets how serious they are about defeating inflation, to the point that investors are seemingly paying less attention. I can understand the Fed’s caution given the erratic nature of the data and its own credibility issue having turned up casually late to the party. The risk now is that it overcompensates during the exit from tightening and pushes the economy into a deeper downturn than necessary. This is why we may well see it maintain the hawkish position in the near term but ultimately not follow through and instead quickly pivot, perhaps later in the quarter. That will all depend on the data and the jobs report last month was not what the central bank wanted to see. It will be hoping for something more modest on Friday, with a particular focus falling on wages which surprised substantially to the upside in November. The ADP report wasn’t a promising precursor but then, it’s rarely a reliable one either. Amazon and Salesforce continue tech layoffs Tech firms have often been the outlier in markets in recent years and now they are for all the wrong reasons. While most companies have been reluctant to lay off staff, having been burned in the aftermath of the pandemic by a surprisingly tight labour market, tech firms have been quick to pull the trigger and in emphatic fashion. There is no crystal ball that the firms’ bosses have access to that others have not; rather it’s a reflection of the intense hiring spree they went on in recent years as business boomed and stock prices soared. The economic cycle has turned rapidly, leaving those companies over-staffed and while that would ideally not result in mass lay-offs, it was always likely to. While other sectors may also gradually start laying off staff in response to the economic downturn, I don’t expect it will be on the same scale, not unless the outlook worsens considerably. Pre-data nerves? Bitcoin isn’t offering much in terms of excitement today, down marginally and with a relatively tight trading range. Whether that’s a little pre-jobs report apprehension or something more defensive amid a welcome quiet period for crypto isn’t clear but we’ll find out soon enough. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Tech leading the way - MarketPulseMarketPulse
    A Further Rise In Gold Is Very Likely, The Dovish Expectations Are Feeding Well Into The Bond Markets

    A Further Rise In Gold Is Very Likely, The Dovish Expectations Are Feeding Well Into The Bond Markets

    Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 19.01.2023 13:41
    There was good, and less good news for investors on the wire yesterday.   The latest PPI data showed that the producer price inflation in the US fell way faster than expected. The expectation was a slowdown in factory gate inflation from 7.3% to 6.8%. And the data printed a sexy 6.2% for December – which meant a 0.5% retreat instead of a 0.1% decline. Core PPI also slowed. That's the good news.   The bad news is the US retail sales fell 1.1% in December – marking the biggest monthly drop of last year.   On the jobs front, Microsoft said that it will cut 10'000 jobs while Amazon started cutting jobs in the context of 18'000 job cuts announced a couple of weeks earlier. Exactly what the Fed wants.  The bad news would normally be good news for the stocks, if the Federal Reserve (Fed) members weren't there to spoil the dovish Fed expectations by saying that the US rates should go higher. Loretta Mester said more hikes are needed, and James Bullard reminded that the rates would have to stay 'on the tighter side this year' to help the Fed reach its 2% inflation goal.  S&P500 is an easy short at the current levels  The S&P500 didn't like the mix of slowing economic data, and still a hawkish Fed, and dived more than 1.50% yesterday.   And traders didn't hesitate much sending the index below the 200-DMA, and below the bearish trend building since the start of 2022, given that there is nothing encouraging for stock investors out there, other than the softening Fed expectations – which don't help filling the company's coffers.  Stock/bond divergence is happening!  The dovish expectations are, however, feeding well into the bond markets: the US 2-year yield is diving toward the 4% mark, while the 10-year yield hit 3.30%, the lowest level since September.   This means that the positive divergence in the sovereign space, compared with the stocks, is happening. Investors return to US sovereign bonds on expectation that the Fed would soften its policy due to recession jitters, while stock markets don't benefit from the expectation of softer financial conditions, as slowing economic activity is bad for profits.   And speaking of profits, Procter & Gamble and Netflix are due to release their Q4 earnings today!   Crude oil swings between gains and losses  US crude advanced past the $82 mark on Chinese reopening optimism and IEA predicting that the oil demand will hit a record in 2023, before falling back below the $80 on recession pessimism, and the news that the US crude inventories jumped by 7.6 million barrels last week, while the expectation was a drop in inventories.   The more official EIA data is due today, and the expectation of a 2.1 million barrel fall will likely disappoint the bulls. But I continue believing that the bulls will take the upper hand and carry the rally higher, though on a bumpy road.   Falling stocks + falling yields: a boon for gold diggers  Gold is bid above the $1900 level, and the positive pressure is supported by lower US yields – which decrease the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing yellow metal, and the softer US dollar.   The overbought conditions hint that we could see a minor downside correction in the short run, but levels between $1855 and 1900 are interesting for amassing gold.   There is potential for a further rise in gold, especially if the stocks fall, while the US yields continue easing. 
    US Stocks Extend Rally Amid Optimism Over Fed's Monetary Policy

    For The First Time Since Last April The EUR/USD Pair Is Above 1.09

    Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 23.01.2023 10:20
    The week started slowly in Asia, as many markets were closed due to the Chinese New Year holiday. But those that were open benefited from the positive vibes from the US markets last Friday.  US equities rally, led by tech stocks  The S&P500 rallied 1.89% and flirted with the 200-DMA again, and closed the week a stone's throw from the ceiling of the 2022-to-date bearish trend.   Nasdaq did even better. The index rallied 2.86%, boosted by a well-deserved 8.50% rally from Netflix - which not only announced better-than-expected results in the Q4, but also a mouth-watering beat on the subscription growth end, with 7.7 mio new subscribers – a number that we thought we would hear only during a pandemic!   Google, on the other hand, jumped 5.72%, but for a less glamorous reason. The company said it will fire 6% of its workforce, which is around 12'000 jobs globally. Investors heard 'yes, that will clearly improve the cloud profitability!'   In total, Amazon, Microsoft and Google will be cutting 40'000 jobs.   Fed's quiet period  The quiet period for Federal Reserve (Fed) officials will help us digest what has been said over the past weeks.   In summary, we know that the Fed will further slow the size of its rate hikes in the coming months. $  But the fact that the Fed will raise by only 25bp next meeting doesn't mean that it won't continue hiking the rates. The rates will likely go above 5% in the Q1.  Focus on earnings  Microsoft, Johnson&Johnson, General Electric,Texas Instruments, Intel, Tesla Mastercard, Visa, Chevron and American Express are among companies that will go to the earnings confessional this week.  Big Tech earnings projections are down by about 5% since October.   Yet, expectations went sufficiently low that there is plenty of room for a positive surprise, as has been the case with Netflix.   FX & energy  The dollar kicked off the week under pressure. The EURUSD already hit the 1.09 mark early in the session, for the first time since last April, and is just a couple of pips away from the major 50% retracement on 2021-2022 selloff.   PMI data due tomorrow could confirm that the European economies took a softer hit thanks to mild start to the winter, and cheaper energy prices as a result of it.   And sufficiently strong PMI data, combined to the negative pressure in the US dollar into the Fed meeting, could help the EURUSD take a chance on the 1.10 resistance in the coming sessions.   In energy, crude oil posted its second straight week of gains on Friday, as the Chinese reopening story and prospects of higher global demand, and around 1 mbpd gap between supply and demand outweighed the recession fears.   The latest rebound in European nat gas prices, and the fact that we now have cold and snow in Europe could also tilt the balance further to the upside.   The barrel of American crude spent last week above the 50-DMA, now around $78pb, but couldn't clear the 100-DMA, which stands around $82pb.   The next target for the oil bulls is a move above the $82pb, for a potential extension of gains toward the $87/88 range.  
    Australian dollar against US dollar - "It seems that the currency will soon hit a price above 0.68"

    Commodities See Short Term Pull Back Risks, The Aussie Dollar Down 0.8%

    Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 31.01.2023 09:37
    Summary:  Markets see red on concern FAANG’s will bite into markets, while there is worry the Fed won’t cut rates this year like the market expects, this has resulted in traders booking profits ahead of end of month. Commodities see short term pull back risks, with prices already down from fresh peaks; oil is down 5.6%, iron ore, copper and aluminium lose 2% ahead of the Fed meeting. While Australian shares hold steady, defying negative leads from Wall Street. In FX the US dollar picks up, pushing most currencies off course, with the Aussie dollar down 0.8%. What's the short vs long term narrative. Markets see red on concern FAANG’s will bite into markets, while there is worry the Fed won’t cut rates this year as markets has priced in Ahead of the Fed, ECB, and BOE meeting this week, for the first time in 2023, with the central banks potentially setting the course of interest rates for the year, risk management resulted in traders and investors booking profits ahead of end of month, which dragged the S&P500(US500.I) down 1.3% and the Nasdaq 100 (NAS100.I) 2.1%. The worry is that the market believes the Fed will only hike by 0.25% this week and 0.25% next month. Two and done, before cutting in July. There is also a risk the Fed says it has “more work to do”, which could send equities into a tailspin. Our view is given financial conditions have improved, and there is a 20% chance of a recession, the Fed can keep rates higher for longer. This is why we think there could be a short term potential correction, so potentially consider taking profits and buying downside optionality (puts), and consider tight stops. Secondly, the worry is that major tech company earnings will continue to slump, with average overall  earnings down 0.3% this quarter, across the 145 of the S&P500 companies. This is why profit taking in Facebook, Apple, Amazon and Google parent Alphabet is occurring ahead of them reporting results. Ultimately, we think their outlooks could set the tone for equities this year. Consider FAANG names like Facebook/Meta are up 61%, Apple is up 10%, Amazon is up 20% and Google’s parent Alphabet is up 12% from recent lows. Click here for more on US earnings. Read next: Major Currency Pairs Are Waiting For Central Banks Decisions, USD/JPY Pair Rose Above 130.00, | FXMAG.COM Commodity short term pull back risk – with prices already down from fresh peaks; oil down 5.6%, iron ore, copper and aluminium lose 2% ahead of the Fed   On Monday oil dropped 2.4%, while most commodities lost almost 1%, with the markets awaiting further evidence China is picking up demand - just as BHP, Rio and FMG alluded to in their quarterly results. It seems traders are torn between real demand physically rising, but awaiting the Fed’s decision this week, which could result in the US dollar spiking, that would ultimately pressure commodity prices down. So these factors raise the risk of a short-term correction across the board. That said, resources prices have been really strong up 17-70% on from their lows. In 2023 alone iron ore and copper are up 9%, Aluminium up 11%, spot gold up 5%. However, with commodity prices falling, it also raises the alarm that Aussie dollar and the Aussie share market could be at risk of a short term correction or consolidation as well. The key is to watch the US dollar index. However keep in mind, over the longer term, commodity prices are supported higher, underpinned by rising demand over course of the year, and lower physical supply. For more on commodities, see Saxo’s Commitments of Traders report, that highlights broad buying slowed in recent weeks. Australian shares hold steady, defying negative leads from Wall Street. Australian retail sales fall off a cliff, borrowing falls Australia’s share market, as measured by the ASX200(ASXSP200.I) opened 0.3% higher today at 7,501 defying the futures and US markets negative lead. Not only are Australia shares outperforming US shares this year, but also UK’s FTSE. However, given materials prices could be at risk of a shorter term pull-back, it’s worth pointing out the technical indicators suggest the ASX200’s uptrend is weakening. Our Technical Analyst suggests a possible short term correction down to 7,167 should not be ruled out. However, over the longer term, we think upside in the ASX200 is intact with mining companies to report some of the strongest earnings on record, and provide their strongest outlooks in several years amid China reopening. For stocks, ETFs and baskets to watch, click here.  In company news today, Gold Road Resources (GOR) reported a drop in production in the prior quarter and higher costs due to inflationary pressure, but guided for higher grades in 2023. This follows Oz Minerals (OZL) also guiding for higher costs, which paints a picture of what we can expect for full year earnings season next month. In economic news, retail sales fell 3.9% in December, shocking the market, which expected sales to only decline 0.3%. On top of that, borrowing data also missed expectations. Borrowing rose 0.3% in December, vs consensus expecting lending to rise 0.5%. Today’s data is telling as it shows interest rates have taken effect on the consumer, and supports the market thinking that the RBA could potentially pause and then cut rates later this year.   In FX the US dollar picks up, pushing most currencies off course The US dollar index has bounced up off it low and risen 0.5% and pressured most currencies lower, with the Aussie dollar (AUDUSD) falling 0.8% from its high, with the Aussie buying 0.7061 US. The Aussie against the US has fallen under its 200-day moving average, while there is caution the Fed’s Wednesday’s decision could cause the US dollar to rise. Should the Fed only hike by 0.25% as expected and guide for one more hike, or if the Fed mentions its hikes have been effective, or that it sees interest rates having a lag effect, then the AUDUSD could potentially rally back up. Supporting longer term upside in the Aussie is the rise of China’s economy and commodity buying. From a technical perspective, the bulls may like to hear the 50 day moving crossed above the 200, indicating the longer term rally could remain intact, despite the RSI indicating, there are currently more sellers right now, than buyers.  Stay tuned to Saxo's inspiration page for trading and investing ideas. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: Video: Will FAANGs results bite into markets and what if the Fed says it won’t cut rates this year, like the market thinks | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
    Past bubbles and AI. "It turns out that almost every time historically there has been a technology that has revolutionised reality, it has been over-invested in"

    Tesla shares are up 41% in January. Microsoft is another top traded stock

    Peter Garnry Peter Garnry 01.02.2023 16:37
    Peter Garnry, Head of Equity Strategy at Saxo, talks the most popular stocks among bank's clients. The year has started on a strong note extending the momentum from the last quarter of 2022 which was fueled by China pivoting away from its zero Covid policy adding a positive impulse into the global economy. Besides the Chinese reopening adding to sentiment the market is increasingly betting on a shallow recession if any recession in the US economy, and a European and Chinese economy that will increase economic activity throughout the year. In addition, the market is pricing in inflation continuing to come down and central banks moving closer into a pause phase on policy rates avoiding tighter financial conditions. The combination of all these things have caused technology stocks to rally significantly in first month of trading with interest jumping massively in Tesla shares being the most traded stock. Tesla shares have generally enjoyed the positive sentiment in equities, but their aggressive price cut across several key EV models earlier this year is seen as a bold move and a sign of strength. Tesla shares are up 41% in January. Microsoft is another top traded stock and while the company reported a muted outlook for year as enterprise technology spending is coming down due to a cost focus among its customers the news that it has invested $10bn in OpenAI, which is behind the famous ChatGPT, has created a lot of attention by investors and Saxo clients. Read next: I believe BP’s upcoming quarterly figures are set to surpass expectations | FXMAG.COM Top Stocks (Shares) 1. Tesla Inc. 2. ASML Holding NV 3. Amazon.com Inc. 4. Microsoft Corp. 5. Apple Inc.  
    Assessing 'Significant Upside Risks to Inflation': Insights from FOMC Minutes

    The US Policymakers Signaled That There Might Be Two More Rate Hikes

    Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 02.02.2023 08:55
    'It is gratifying to see the disinflationary process now getting underway' said the Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jerome Powell at his press conference yesterday.  'Disinflation process is getting underway'.   That was the major - and the only take - of his speech yesterday, and sent the markets rallying. The US yields fell, the S&P500 reversed course and rallied more than 1% higher, while Nasdaq jumped more than 2%. The dollar index slumped.   But besides the 'disinflationary process', things went quite according to the plan at yesterday's FOMC meeting. The Fed increased the interest rates by 25bp, as expected. Powell said that they are happy with the falling inflation, but warned that the US jobs market remains tight, and wages growth is still too strong.   Powell didn't call the end of the rate hikes, just yet. On the contrary, the US policymakers signaled that there might be two more rate hikes before a pause, and that the tightness in the jobs market is a risk on inflation.   But all that fell on deaf ears after investors heard that 'disinflationary process started'.   Maybe the surprisingly low ADP report – that revealed that the US economy added a little more than 100'000 jobs last month, suggested that the labour conditions in the US might be easing just before Powell announced the latest FOMC decision? But the weakness in ADP report was mostly due to harsh winter conditions, and the job openings jumped past 11 mio.   Anyway, the Fed meeting was a boon for risk investors.   Note that, at the wake of the meeting, activity on Fed funds futures gives around 83% chance for the next FOMC meeting to deliver another 25bp hike, which would take the rates to 5% mark, as promised by Fed members.   But for equities, there is no reason to think that the bullish sentiment would reverse anytime soon. The S&P500 will certainly make an attempt on its 100-week moving average which stands a couple of points above the 4200 mark, and the 20% rally in Meta shares in the afterhours trading could keep the rally going today.  Apple, Amazon, Google, Ford and Qualcomm are due to announce their earnings today.  
    Kiwi Faces Depreciation Pressure: RBNZ Expected to Hold Rates Amidst Downward Momentum

    The ECB And The Bank Of England Are Both Expected To Raise The Interest Rates By 50bp

    Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 02.02.2023 10:33
    It is gratifying to see the disinflationary process now getting underway’ said the Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jerome Powell at his press conference yesterday. ‘Disinflation process is getting underway’. Stock market That was the major - and the only take - of his speech yesterday, and sent the markets rallying. The US yields fell, the S&P500 reversed course and rallied more than 1% higher, while Nasdaq jumped more than 2%. The dollar index slumped. Fed At the wake of the meeting, activity on Fed funds futures gives around 83% chance for the next FOMC meeting to deliver another 25bp hike, which would take the rates to 5% mark, as promised by Fed members. And for equities, there is no reason to think that the bullish sentiment would reverse anytime soon. What else? Apple, Amazon, Google, Ford and Qualcomm are due to announce their earnings today. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) are both expected to raise the interest rates by 50bp today But it won’t be the same 50bp hike. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:31 One phrase: ‘disinflationary process is underway’ 4:31 Facebook’s Meta pops 20% after earnings 6:33 ECB to hike by 50bp 8:17 BoE to hike by 50bp, as well, but… Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #ECB #BoE #Fed #FOMC #meeting #Powell #disinflation #Meta #Apple #Google #Amazon #Ford #Qualcomm #earnings #USD #EUR #GBP #FTSE #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
    TikTok Bans Are Gathering Momentum In The US

    Facebook’s Best Rally In Almost A Decade, BoE’s Tightening Cycle May End Soon

    Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 03.02.2023 10:19
    Yesterday was, again, a fantastic day of trading for equities, as the less hawkish than expected tone from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) meetings joined the optimistic vibes from the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s ‘disinflationary process’ mention a day before, and all that combined with Facebook’s best rally in almost a decade painted the market in the green. S&P500 The S&P500 gained around 1.50%. Nasdaq 100 jumped more than 3.5% and entered bull market as Meta jumped more than 23%. Earnings But today will probably not be as fantastic as yesterday, as Apple, Amazon and Google announced earnings after the bell yesterday, and they all disappointed. US jobs data Maybe, the again-important US jobs data could temper the earnings-triggered weakness – if of course the NFP number, and more importantly the wages growth are sufficiently soft to keep the Fed doves in charge of the market. Rates Elsewhere, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) raised their rates by 50bp yesterday, but Lagarde sounded much less aggressive than the December meeting. Read next: USD/JPY Pair Is Trading At 128.48 The Aussie Pair Is Above 0.71$| FXMAG.COM Euro The EURUSD sold off. But I believe that the euro’s recovery hasn’t ended just yet, as we see the end of the tunnel for the Fed – as the Fed rates approach the 5% mark, while we don’t yet see the end of the tightening tunnel for the ECB. Watch the full episode to find out more and find the link to our latest blog article : www.swissquote.com/blog 0:00 Intro 0:50 Stocks rally on dovish central bank expectations, and Facebook… 2:10 … but Apple, Amazon and Google dampen the mood. 5:38 What kind of US jobs data could cheer up investors? 6:42 BoE’s tightening cycle may end soon 8:21 ECB’s Lagarde sounded less aggressive than last December, but euro should do fine… Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #US #NFP #wages #jobs #data #ECB #BoE #Fed #FOMC #meeting #Powell #disinflation #Meta #Apple #Google #Amazon #earnings #USD #EUR #GBP #Bailey #Lagarde #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH      
    Apple earnings: Company did not give an outlook for the next quarter, which could prove even more challenging due to parts shortages and competition

    All in all, the initial market reaction to last night's numbers looks disappointing and could lead to some read across in some chip makers

    Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 03.02.2023 12:24
    Volatility in US markets looks set to continue later today with the Nasdaq 100 set to open lower after a disappointing reaction to numbers from the three A's of Amazon, Alphabet and Apple, which are all lower in the premarket. It does need to be said that any market weakness today needs to be set against the backdrop of strong gains from all three in yesterday's session, which meant the bar to meeting expectations was always going to be higher. Starting with Amazon, we saw their shares finish the day over 7% higher touching the 200-day SMA in the process, in the lead up to the release of their Q4 earnings numbers last night. In Q3 Amazon downgraded expectations around their Q4 revenues to between $140bn to $148bn, so it was welcome that they managed to beat on this, coming in at $149.2bn, while they also managed to eke out a profit of $300m or 3c a share, given that they warned they might struggle to return a profit, with another $2.3bn write-down from the stake in Rivian, weighing on the top line numbers. AWS was slightly weaker than expected, with revenues of $21.3bn, but these were still up 20% year over year. For the full year, Amazon posted $514bn in net sales, compared with $496.8bn in 2021, however the company posted a net annual loss of $2.7bn, with Rivian knocking $12.7bn off that profit number, compared to a $33.4bn profit in 2021.     For its Q1 guidance Amazon said it expects to deliver between $121bn and $126bn, which was slightly on the lower side of forecasts of $125.5bn.    Alphabet shares also finished the day over 7% higher yesterday, closing above its 200-day SMA, with attention on their Q4 numbers not only on their cloud business, but also on advertising after the big surge for Meta in the aftermath of their results on Wednesday.   Read next: No matter what the outcome of the RBA I see AUDUSD failing and going lower| FXMAG.COM Q4 revenues came in at $76.05bn, slightly below expectations of $76.5bn, with net income falling to $13.6bn, or $10.05c a share.  The main drag was in advertising with YouTube ad revenue coming in light at $7.96bn, down from $8.6bn a year ago, while advertising revenue came in at just over $59bn, also down from last year. The cloud business did see an improvement on last year, rising to $7.3bn. Alphabet said it expects to incur charges of up to $2.3bn in respect of severance costs for 12,000 employees in its Q1 numbers, with the shares looking to open lower.   Apple shares pushed above $150 yesterday, also closing above the 200-day SMA and over 3.7% up on the day, however their Q1 numbers were a little disappointing. It was always going to be a tall order for Apple to get close to last year's $123.95bn, although last night's numbers were still pretty good at $117.15bn, given the various supply chain disruptions that affected the business at the end of last year, nonetheless revenues still came in 5% lower. Profits also fell short at $1.88c a share. When the numbers were broken down, there was weakness across the board, iPhone sales fell well short at $65.78bn, against an expectation of $68.3bn. Mac revenue was also disappointing at $7.74bn, $2bn below expectations, although iPad revenue beat forecasts, coming in at $9.40bn, above the $7.78bn estimate. Wearables also fell short of expectations, despite the release of 3 new Apple watches and the new AirPods Pro, suggesting that consumer appetite for incremental upgrades is waning. For the upcoming quarter Apple said they also expected to see a similar 5% decline in their Q2 revenue numbers, the first time we've seen such declines since 2016. All in all, the initial market reaction to last night's numbers looks disappointing and could lead to some read across in some chip makers, and other related suppliers to the sector, but we should also remember all three companies have seen big gains in their share prices so far this year, so perhaps it's time for a bit of a pause as we head into the weekend.
    Rates Spark: Italy's Retail Bonds and Their Impact on Government Funding

    Amazon Is Slowly Dismantling Tony Hsieh’s Version Of Zappos, Louis Vuitton Doubled Sales

    Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 13.02.2023 10:03
    Amazon's impact on Zappos is already visible through slowdowns. Louisa Vuitton tries to maintain an atmosphere of exclusivity. Layoffs at Zappos Zappos laid off more than 300 employees last month, about 20% of the Las Vegas-based company's workforce. Zappos' cuts were part of wider layoffs at Amazon, which are expected to cut more than 18,000 employees, which the daily said will affect about 5% of its corporate ranks. They are also the latest in a series of moves from longtime parent company Zappos. Among the significant changes at Zappos is the departure of Tyler Williams, a long-time Zappos executive and Hsieh's right-hand man for many years, who left the company during the latest round of layoffs, according to people familiar with the companies. Some of the recent layoffs at Zappos involved customer service representatives, a department. Zappos spokeswoman Laura Davis said the January cuts were part of Zappos' regular business planning. As for the customer service department, she said the cuts were "finally put in place to ensure Zappos is set up to continue to deliver exceptional customer service in the long term." Amazon and Zappos Hsieh agreed to sell Zappos to Amazon on the condition that the company would operate independently. For years, he worried about what Zappos employees called "Amazon creep," a reference to Amazon's executives becoming more involved and imposing a more traditional management style on them, according to former Zappos employees. Some Zappos divisions have already been incorporated into Amazon. Other changes have been more symbolic: recently, Amazon has largely replaced Zappos' distinctive white branded boxes with the parent company's standard brown packaging. According to former Amazon employees, it put pressure on Hsieh and his team until 2019 to meet certain growth goals. Since Hsieh's departure, Zappos has been experiencing internal turmoil. Overall, Amazon is much more involved with Zappos and its business decisions than it was when Hsieh headed the company. Zappos is now profitable, although it still hasn't met all of the growth targets Amazon has set for it. Read next: Campbell Bought A $100,000 Plane To Live In It| FXMAG.COM Amazon share price Amazon shares in early February reached its highest trading level since November last year at 112.91. Then the decline will begin and recently the share price closed below 100.00, at 97.61. Louis Vuitton made a show Louis Vuitton has built a huge makeshift warehouse in the courtyard of the Louvre to house a recent menswear show. Even by the standards of the fashion world, the show was an exaggerated spectacle - one that paid off handsomely for the company. According to Launchmetrics, which assigns a monetary value to every article, post or interaction about a brand or event, the show garnered more attention than any other brand during January's Paris Men's Fashion Week. $27.2 million in so-called media impact value is 91% more than last year's Vuitton show. It was proof that the business strategy had worked: the luggage and handbag company had established itself as the most powerful luxury goods brand in the world. LV gains Last month, the owner of a handbag maker said Louis Vuitton would reach $20 billion in revenue in 2022. It was just four years after the brand became the first in the luxury industry to reach $10 billion in annual sales. Louis Vuitton has benefited from a boom in luxury spending since the pandemic. The brand is now entering a critical phase. Former Louis Vuitton CEO Michael Burke and executive vice president Delphine Arnault, Arnault's daughter, handed over leadership earlier this month. The takeover will be handled by Italian CEO Pietro Beccari, the outgoing head of Dior, LVMH's second-largest brand. The change in leadership brings new economic pressures Louis Vuitton share price Louis Vuitton shares hit a high at EUR 829.40. Similar to Amazon shares, LVHM shares started their decline after peaking and recently closed below EUR 800 at 799.90. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com
    Lagarde's Dilemma: Balancing Eurozone's Slowdown and Inflation Pressure

    The outlook for various large companies such as Apple, Tesla, Amazon and so on isn't as negative this year as the trends in prices of their shares would suggest

    Michael Stark Michael Stark 14.02.2023 10:25
    2023 is underway, but it's still good time to have a look at predictions for the year prepared by analysts around the globe. Today, we publish Michael Stark's (Exness) views on 2023. In this part, Michael talks stock market. Can you forecast how the value of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq will change in 2023? Please justify the indication of a bullish/sideways/bearish trend. Michael Stark (Exness): As of late January, sideways trends or weak uptrends seem to be most likely. The most hawkish expectations for the Fed seem to have been rejected for now and, while the economy around the world might grow less this year, a deep recession is unfavourable. Many of the constituents of both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost a lot of value in 2022 and the enthusiasm of sellers might have been excessive.The main uncertainty there is how severe the current or upcoming recession might be. Expectations at the moment vary significantly between very negative and cautiously optimistic while some large banks even expect recession to be avoided in most major countries except the UK. Monetary policy looks clearer for the time being but there's still a long way to go before inflation is under control in most countries, including the USA. Will we see greater positive dynamics of price changes in the sector of small, medium or large companies? Probably the most positive - or least negative at any rate - would be for large companies simply because these have suffered most since early 2022 from outflows. The outlook for various large companies such as Apple, Tesla, Amazon and so on isn't as negative this year as the trends in prices of their shares would suggest. Large companies also have significantly more options to cut costs and boost dividends, attracting investors whose focus is on value and cashflow. Read next: Bartosz Milczarek, CEO at Cryptiony: Customers settle the crypto tax in annual returns, so our business model is also based on annual subscriptions | FXMAG.COM Which sectors and industries are worth focusing on in 2023 and why? Primarily tech and financial companies are in view this year. Tech shares were some of the biggest losers in 2022, but now that the outlook for the economy and monetary policy seems less gloomy there could be scope for recovery or further recovery, especially if participants rotate away from energy over the next few months. Most major tech companies seem to be reasonably well prepared for a recession and aware that investors are currently stressing sustainable profitability rather than rapid growth. Financial companies - primarily major banks - could also be in view this year because rising rates almost everywhere mean that their profit margins from mortgages will be higher, while as above most large banks are implementing cost-cutting measures, continuing to downsize their networks of physical branches and push online banking. The obvious concern here is rising rates of default among borrowers, especially if the recession proves to be worse than currently anticipated.
    The Most Sold Company Turned Out To Be  Microsoft

    The Most Sold Company Turned Out To Be Microsoft

    Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 16.02.2023 13:31
    And we've got it! 77 Q4 2022 held investment reports from superinvestor funds. What did the best of the best in this market invest in and walk away from, and what can we learn from this?  First, the highlights The 13F report is a form that investment funds in the United States must file if they control or manage assets of $100 million or more. Form 13F contains information about investments in individual listed companies, including the number of shares and the value of those investments at the end of each quarter. This information is publicly available. The most frequently held companies currently in superinvestors' portfolios are: Google (Alphabet) - as many as 31 times, Microsoft (Microsoft) - 30 times, Meta Platforms (Facebook) - 25 times, Amazon.com (Amazon) - 24 times and Visa (Visa) - 24 times. We have already had the opportunity to discuss the portfolios of George Soros and Warren Buffett. This time, however, let us look at their activities collectively. The most frequently bought companies By far the most frequently bought company was e-commerse giant Amazon.com (Amazon), which was snapped up by as many as 15 super-investors. This seems interesting particularly given the problems of the consumer goods sector, which seems to be particularly negatively affected by the economic slowdown and high interest rates. Amazon currently accounts for 1.62 per cent in the value of all superinvestor portfolios. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Amazon, Daily The second most bought company was technology giant Meta Platforms (Facebook), which was acquired by as many as 13 super-investors in Q4 2022. Following problems with its - seemingly misguided - investment of more than $13 billion in the Metaverse, the company announced a 13 per cent job cut. The cost reduction may have improved investor sentiment, as the company's shares, after falling as much as 78 per cent, have now rebounded 122 per cent from the bottom. Meta accounts for 1.31 per cent of the value of all superinvestors' portfolios. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Facebook, Daily The third most bought company was another tech giant that has recently become famous for its investment in artificial intelligence - Microsoft (Microsoft). It was bought by as many as 11 of the super-investors. The company is now the largest position among all funds, accounting for as much as 2.36 per cent of their portfolios. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Microsoft, Daily In fourth place was Microsoft's biggest competitor, Google (Alphabet), which appears to be focusing on creating a tool such as ChatGPT. The company was bought by nine super-investors in the last quarter of last year, and its shares accounted for 1.52 per cent of the value of funds' portfolios. Source: Conotoxia MT5, alphabet, Daily The most sold companies Interestingly, the most sold company turned out to be the previously mentioned Microsoft. It was sold by 14 super-investors. The largest buyer was Daniel Loeb (Third Point fund), who increased the company's stake by 4.75 per cent of his portfolio, and the largest seller was John Armitage (Egerton Capital fund), reducing the company's stake by 5 per cent of his portfolio. Ex aequo with Microsoft was the world's largest payment service provider, Visa (Visa), also sold by 14 super-investors, with only four of them buying its shares. Viking Global Investors fund bought the largest stake, accounting for 0.46 per cent of its portfolio value, while Lee Ainsile (Maveric Capital fund) opted for the largest sale with 1.32 per cent of its portfolio value. It appears that the reluctance to buy the company may be linked to expectations of reduced consumer activity in the coming quarters. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Visa, Daily In third place were Google shares sold by 12 of the super investors. China's Li Lu (Himalaya Capital Management fund) seems to be by far the most optimistic about the company's future. He increased the company's stake by as much as 7.3 per cent of the value of his portfolio. The biggest pessimist, on the other hand, was Josh Tarasoff from the Greenlea Lane Capital fund. He reduced his position in the company by 2.2 per cent of the value of his portfolio. What conclusions can we draw from this? Based on the investments of all super investors, it is therefore difficult to identify the best and worst assets. This may be due to the fundamental issue of different investment styles and strategies. Therefore, drawing conclusions from the investments undertaken should be preceded by an understanding of the style of the fund in question and its assumptions for entering and exiting positions. Grzegorz Dróżdż, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76,41% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
    Amazon Will Pay Employees A Lower Salary Due To Lower Stock Prices, Declining Demand For 5G Equipment Will Result In The Loss Of 1,400 Jobs At Ericsson

    Amazon Will Pay Employees A Lower Salary Due To Lower Stock Prices, Declining Demand For 5G Equipment Will Result In The Loss Of 1,400 Jobs At Ericsson

    Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 21.02.2023 11:02
    Amazon is in the middle of one of the most difficult financial problems in the company's history. In November, the biggest round of layoffs the company has ever carried out began as Amazon adjusted to faltering retail demand coupled with years of mass hiring. Then there's the problem of low pay. Moreover, a manufacturer of telecommunications equipment decides to reduce employment. Lower salary Amazon pays its corporate employees a large portion of their annual wages in capped stock units, and the prolonged decline in the company's stock is putting salaries for 2023 between 15% and 50% below projected targets Amazon has set for employees. Amazon has historically given employees a lower base salary than its big-tech counterparts, but has made up the difference with stock awards that have been purchased over several years. Employees say the longer an Amazon employee stays with the company, the more their pay may depend on stock awards, with stock accounting for 50% or more of total income for some. Amazon share price Over the past year, Amazon shares have fallen more than 35% as a result of a broader tech slowdown and slower growth on Amazon's retail side. When Amazon issues limited shares to employees, it is based on a long-standing assumption shared in compensation talks that Amazon shares will appreciate at least 15% each year. Until recently, this was largely true. From 2017 to the beginning of 2022, the share price increased by an average of about 30% per year. But Amazon stock is currently trading at around $97 a share, and some employee compensation packages are built on the assumption that Amazon stock will cost around $170 a share. Read next: USD/JPY Pair Is Above 134.00, EUR/USD Pair Holds Below 1.07, GBP/USD Pair Managed To Rebound| FXMAG.COM Layoffs and no new jobs By January, Amazon had laid off 18,000 corporate employees, the most of any tech company in this latest wave of layoffs. In addition to eliminating current positions, Amazon also revoked job offers from some applicants who had accepted and had not yet started, and delayed the start date of some new hires by six months. The information previously informed about the canceled offers. Ericsson and layoffs Ericsson plans to cut around 1,400 jobs in Sweden as the telecommunications equipment giant struggles with slowing demand for its 5G equipment in markets such as the US. Ericsson last month reported a lower-than-expected quarterly profit and warned that the start of the new year is uncertain as telecom operators in markets such as the US hold back on placing new orders for 5G equipment amid economic uncertainty. The cuts are part of an effort the company announced late last year to cut costs by SEK 9 billion, equivalent to around $861 million, by the end of 2023 by streamlining processes, closing facilities and reducing the number of consultants. Ericsson has just concluded negotiations with Swedish unions and plans to cut jobs under a voluntary scheme, a spokeswoman said on Monday. In the coming days, managers will share with their employees how this affects each unit. Ericsson share price Ericsson shares are at an all-time low, last seen in 2017. Currently, the share price is at 5.76. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com
    Stolen Goods End Up On Amazon, Ebay And Facebook Marketplace

    Stolen Goods End Up On Amazon, Ebay And Facebook Marketplace

    Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 26.02.2023 18:29
    The Internet offers many possibilities. Also, people who want to run illegal activities have an ideal place to do so. In this article: Warren Buffett and his annual letter Ease of selling stolen items Latin America Warren Buffett and his annual letter In his annual letter to Berkshire shareholders, the 92-year-old Buffett urged investors to focus on the big picture over the long term, rather than higher inflation and other factors. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett signaled on Saturday that he has not lost lasting confidence in the US economy and his company Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Buffett called 2022 a "good year" for Berkshire, with many of its strongest companies holding up to the pressures of heightened inflation, rising interest rates and supply chain disruptions. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett in his annual letter to shareholders urged investors to focus on the big picture over the long term, and pushed back on critics of stock buybacks. Read more https://t.co/SdVLJpK7wY pic.twitter.com/iAllyjuGFD — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) February 26, 2023 Read next: Forex Weekly Summary: EUR/USD Ended The Week Below 1.06 And GBP/USD Below 1.20, USD/JPY Ended The Week Higher Above 136.00| FXMAG.COM Ease of selling stolen items Over the past year, large-scale robberies have occurred at stores such as Louis Vuitton in San Francisco's Union Square and at nearby Nordstrom, which was robbed by 80 people. Law enforcement and retailers are warning the public that this is not traditional shoplifting. What they see is rather theft organized by criminal networks. Retailers say $68.9 billion worth of products were stolen in 2019. In 2020, three-quarters reported an increase in organized crime, and more than half reported cargo theft. Some major chains blame organized theft for recent store closures or their decisions to reduce opening hours. Amazon, eBay and Facebook are where these stolen goods are sold, with critics saying they are not doing enough to put an end to the business. The companies disagree. For example, Amazon says it has spent over $900 million and hired over 12,000 people in 2021 to prevent fraud and abuse. The company also says it requests "proofs of origin" when it has concerns about how products are sourced and works with authorities to eliminate illegal activity. Getting started selling on Facebook Marketplace is relatively simple. Although it is against its policy to sell stolen goods, Meta typically does not require proof of identity other than a basic name and a verifiable email address or phone number needed to open a Facebook account. How do stolen goods end up on Amazon, eBay and Facebook Marketplace? Watch the video to learn more and what the online marketplaces are doing to stop the sale of stolen products. https://t.co/oKgoSe6UJ4 pic.twitter.com/sC975Kpsdf — CNBC (@CNBC) February 26, 2023 Latin America Latin American economies performed well last year despite the upheavals caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and global interest rate hikes. In 2022, the region's economy grew by nearly 4%. Despite this encouraging news on economic growth and inflation, 2023 is likely to be a challenging year for the region. Growth this year is expected to slow to just 2 percent, with higher interest rates and falling commodity prices. Latin America's economy expanded by nearly 4% in 2022, employment recovered strongly, and the service sector rebounded from the damage caused by the pandemic. More on #IMFBlog: https://t.co/iFCzzU0810 pic.twitter.com/OWf2T8Qvh7 — IMF (@IMFNews) February 26, 2023
    Lagarde's Dilemma: Balancing Eurozone's Slowdown and Inflation Pressure

    Microsoft, Amazon and Google increased by nearly 15% last week

    Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 20.03.2023 12:20
    UBS bought Credit Suisse (CS) in a government-brokered deal for 0.76 cents of franc per share, or CHF3bn in total.  The Swiss National Bank (SBN) offered UBS $100 billion in liquidity to make sure that the takeover would go smoothly, and Swiss government offered 9 billion francs guarantee on CS losses. The deal triggered a complete write-down of all CS's additional tier 1 bonds.   US dollar weakened and US futures opened in the positive but reversed losses while the Japanese Nikkei fell 1.42%, Hang Seng dropped more than 3%.  The next few hours of trading will give us a better picture on whether the crisis is contained. In theory, there is no reason for the Credit Suisse crisis to extend, as what triggered the last quake for Credit Suisse was a confidence crisis – which doesn't concern UBS - a bank outside of the turmoil, with, in addition, ample liquidity and guarantee from the SNB and the government.   Fed decision time!  So, if all goes well, shaky days across banks will soon be left behind and investors could concentrate on the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision.   One thing is important to note: the Fed's Quantitative Tightening (QT) was clearly out of the window since the Silicon Vally Bank (SVB) debacle. The Fed's balance sheet ticked higher last week, to help easing stress across banks.   But the QT and last week's emergency intervention are conceptionally different.  And more interestingly, while we could think that the reverse-QT, could have some negative implications for inflation – because the Fed is adding liquidity into the system - an index on financial conditions in the US suggests that the financial conditions have tightened sharply since last week, to the tightest levels since last fall and that could be an argument for the Fed to pause its rate hikes. Read next: UBS buys Credit Suisse for $3.2bn. Last week was the worst one for equity markets in 2023| FXMAG.COM   But perhaps not from this week. The expectation for this week's meeting is still a 25bp hike from the Fed. Activity on Fed funds futures gives around 60% chance for a 25bp hike this Wednesday.   The March dot plot and Powell's accompanying statement will be as important as the rate decision. On the data front, US short-term inflation expectations fell in March to the lowest levels since 2021. That's excellent news for the Fed's inflation battle as inflation expectations have a material impact on where inflation, itself, is headed.   A boon for the Big Tech  The banking turmoil has been a boon for the tech stocks last week. The sharp fall in rate hike expectations which resulted in a sharp fall in yields drove more than $500 billion in market value to Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon last week.   Microsoft rallied more than 15%, Amazon gained almost 15% as well and flirted with the $100 psychological mark. Same with Google, it also gained around 15% and closed the week above the $100 for the first time since the beginning of February, while Apple added 6%.   And Bitcoin, which has a strong correlation with tech stocks, gained 45% since the March 10 dip – and more importantly, showed that it could act as a hedge to a global bank stress.   It's yet to be seen whether the Big Tech could hold on to their gains if the Fed brings its inflation battle back on the table.  Oversold.  Crude oil kicked off the week under pressure, below the $70pb level as the bank stress weigh on global growth prospects and sent the price of a barrel below this psychological level. The RSI indicator suggests that the American crude stepped into oversold market conditions, meaning that crude oil has been sold too fast in a too short period of time, and a positive correction would be healthy at the current levels.
    US core inflation hits 5.5% and it's the second lowest reading since November 2021

    FOMC, copper, natural gas, Amazon and more in today's Saxo Market Call

    Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 21.03.2023 11:11
    Summary:  Today we look at the eerie calm across markets after the two consecutive weekend interventions to deal with systemic risks from failing banks. We also discuss whether the FOMC will be willing to market its forecasts anywhere near where market expectations have shifted in its forward guidance at tomorrow's meeting, look at copper, natural gas and platinum, stocks to watch, including Amazon, where we wonder if activist investors could soon make an appearance and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Read next: JP Morgan, GS and Morgan Stanley ended the day above the line. On Monday, S&P 500 increased by almost 1%, Nasdaq gained 0.34%| FXMAG.COM   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com. Source: Podcast: Are markets too calm? Will FOMC play ball with market expectations? | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
    Taming the Dollar: Assessing Powell's Hawkish Tone Amidst BRICS Expansion

    On Wednesday Australian CPI goes out. 4 big companies report their earnings this week

    Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 24.04.2023 09:23
    Summary:  This week, focus will be on the Fed's preferred inflation read, the first BOJ policy meeting in the Ueda era, as well as Chinese Industrial Profits and Australia CPI. Five of the 10 biggest companies in the MSCI All World Index report this week, including Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Exxon. Earnings misses, on already revised-down earnings estimates could threaten stock prices. We cover what you need to watch and why options for downside protection are rising. US GDP growth is expected to slow modestly to 2% The advance reading of the US real GDP growth, scheduled to release on Thursday, is expected, according to Bloomberg’s survey of economists, to slow to 2% Q/Q annualized in Q1, down from 2.6% in Q4 last year. Despite inventory drawdown is potentially dragging GDP growth, personal consumption is expected to come in strong at 4% Q/Q annualized and be the key driving force to sustain GDP growth in Q1. US core CPI deflator and employment cost index to gauge the Fed’s interest rate path This Friday, we will have the release of the Fed’s preferred measures of inflation and wage growth. The median forecast for core PCE from economists surveyed by Bloomberg is 0.3% M/M and 4.5% Y/Y in March (versus 0.3% M/M, 4.6% Y/Y in February). As rent-related components have a smaller weight in the core PCE measures than in the core CPI calculation, the core PCE may not benefit as much as the CPI counterpart from the recent weaknesses in rents. Investors will monitor closely the core service excluding housing sub-index in the PCE report to gauge the underlying consumer inflation trend in the U.S. Meanwhile, the headline PCE deflator growth is expected to slow to 0.1% M/M and 4.1% Y/Y in March from 0.3% M/M and 5.0% Y/Y in February. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is the Fed’s preferred measure of wage growth. The Bloomberg surveyed consensus is expecting the ECI to tick up to 1.1% Q/Q in Q1, from 1.0% in Q4. The implied Y/Y change will be 5.0% in Q1, below the 5.1% in Q4. The first BOJ policy meeting in the Ueda era This Friday, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is concluding its two-day monetary policy meeting, the first under the reign of Mr. Ueda. The majority of investors as suggested in various surveys are expecting no change to policies, including the yield curve control (YCC) policy at this meeting. At a press conference earlier this month, Ueda reiterated his stance that the YCC policy is appropriate in view of the current economic, price and financial situation. Investors are expecting some sort of changes to the YCC policy later this year but are divided in the forms of policy changes ranging from widening the current +/- 50bps band, shortening the tenor of the Japanese Government bond (JGB) yield that is targeted from currently 10-year to the 5-year or even the 2-year JGB, or even completely abolishing it. A change to the YCC policy is likely to make the Yen stronger. Chinese industrial profits are on watch: bringing iron ore and copper prices and stock in focus On Thursday traders will be watching Chinese Industrial Profits, looking for clues that China’s industrial sector has the propensity to increase commodity buying. Recent gains in factory output, as well as a seasonal increase in sales and exports, could reflect that industrial profits are improving in sorts; with profits expected to show a 11% YoY drop, which will mark an improvement from the prior 22% pull back in profitability YOY, according to Bloomberg. The data could also either validate or quash remarks that have been swirling, saying Chinese steel mills are experiencing a large profit squeeze, with some curbing output. As for trading implications; we will be watching iron ore and copper prices, as well as big miners shares and ETFs. Also consider the iron ore price pulled back 7% last week and trades almost down 3% on Monday, on concerns China will slow demand, at a time when iron ore producers such as Rio and Fortescue are exporting record amounts of iron ore, with traders concerns oversupply will continue to pressure iron ore prices lower. Read next: IG analyst to FXMAG.COM: In my opinion commodity prices already reflect higher oil prices| FXMAG.COM Australian CPI and potential implications for AUD On Wednesday Australia CPI will be in focus. Inflation is expected to cool with softening food prices to push down the figures, compared to last year’s weather-related price spikes. YoY inflation is expected to drop from 7.8% to 6.9%. QoQ inflation is expected to cool from 1.9% to 1.3%, that’s according to Bloomberg consensus. However, the RBA expects a 1.8% QoQ inflation read, and 7.4% annually. All in all, If hotter reads come through, it could validate the RBA hiking rates next week and see the AUD knee-jerk higher. However, near term downside is alive as commodity prices continue to retreat. Plus, AUD failed to close above the April 14 high of 0.6806 last week, so the April low could be reachable. And downside could pick up if a weaker CPI read come through, as it will likely keep the RBA in pause mode, next week. Also note leveraged funds increased their short positions in the AUUSD for a second week. Over the longer term though, Saxo’s house view is that China’s economy will outperform this year, and this should theoretically support the AUD. Plus commodity prices are widely expected to pick up later this year, supported to Chinese growth picking up. And if you add a potential Fed cut, we could see a downtrend in the overvalued USD. US earnings wrap: how is it going so far? So far this US quarterly earnings season 87 out of the S&P500 have reported results and 73% beat expectations. That said, overall aggregate earnings have declined 1.6% in the quarter. The Materials sector has seen the biggest drop in aggregate earnings, falling 43%. Tech earnings declined 36% on average. Meanwhile in positive news, Industrials reported the most average earnings growth of 47%, with Alaska Air reporting that demand has returned to pre-pandemic levels. US earnings this week; and why risk appetite for downside protection is rising This week, we will get a big reality check, with 170 members of the S&P500 reporting results and a lot of those being blue chips. Five of the 10 biggest companies in the MSCI all world Index report, including Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Exxon. Earnings misses, on already revised-down earnings estimates could really threaten stock prices. Analysts are expecting tech profits earnings to see the biggest drop since 2009, as big tech’s customers are curbing spending on software, cloud and advertising services, given they’re pinched by inflation and higher borrowing costs.  So, focus will be on commentary about how cost-reduction measures, such as mass layoffs have helped ease margin pressures. Tech stocks in the S&P500 are trading at 25 times prospective earnings, and some traders think this is too expensive given earnings growth is going backwards (with average tech earnings growth down 37% far out). As such, some option traders have increased their bets of a pull back in the Nasdaq 100. The cost of contracts protecting against a 10% decline in the Invesco QQQ Trust, the largest ETF tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index, is now 1.7 times more than the cost of options that profit from a 10% rally. Big tech companies – what to watch, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon  Microsoft (MSFT) reports on Tuesday and expected to report a decline in PC sales and a slowdown in cloud services, which will likely continue to weigh on the top-line, with consensus forecasting the smallest constant-currency revenue growth since 2017. AI enhancements to its search engine, Bing are not likely to translate to sizable sales growth for the company in the near term, but, forward commentary will be watched like a hawk, given Bing is touted to potentially threaten Google’s search dominance. This could be a catalyst for higher forward revenue from advertisers. Alphabet’s (GOOGL) also reports on Tuesday, and growth is likely to remain dull, with a pullback in ad spending, particularly by the financial sector, adding to headwinds, while its core search-ads business si expected to remain pressured by macroeconomic uncertainty. Meta Platforms (META) could be the shining light for big tech, when they report on Tuesday. Operating margins is widely expected to expand sequentially by 18% and see Meta return to growth after four quarters of declines. Weak engagement on the Facebook app remains a real drag on Meta’s ad-impressions growth, but there has been increasing contribution from Instagram Reels, WhatsApp and messaging ads. So focus will be on that translating in the numbers. Amazon (AMZN) is widely expected to report its the weakest quarterly revenue growth on record on Thursday. Until we see cloud-services momentum re-accelerating, it’s possible operating margins will remain under pressure. This week’s key earnings releases   Monday 24 April Coca-Cola (KO) Whirlpool (WHR) First Republic Bank (FRC) Tuesday 25 April Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Microsoft (MSFT) General Motors (GM) Raytheon (RTX) United Parcel Service (UPS) Wednesday 26 April Meta (META) Boeing Thursday 27 April Amazon (AMZN) Caterpillar (CAT) Northrop Grumman (NOC) Merck (MRK) Capital One Financial (COF) Friday 28 April Exxon (XOM) Chevron (CVX) Colgate-Palmolive (CL)   This week’s economic key events Monday 24 April Germany IFO business climate (Apr) Tuesday 25 April US New home sales (Mar) US Conference Board consumer confidence (Apr) Wednesday 26 April Australia CPI (Q1) US Durable goods orders (Mar) Thursday 27 April US GDP (Q1) Eurozone Consumer confidence (Apr) Friday 28 April Bank of Japan policy meeting US PCE deflator (Mar) US Employment cost index (Q1) Germany, France, Eurozone GDP (Q1) Germany, France CPI (Apr) Sunday 30 AprilChina manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI (Apr) Source: Saxo Spotlight: What’s on investors & traders radars this week? | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
    Saxo Market Call podcast Listeners' Edition - answers to listeners survey, Google AI, copper and more

    Alphabet, Meta, Amazon - mega cap tech companies are to report their earnings they after day starting tomorrow!

    Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 24.04.2023 11:38
    Alphabet Q1 23 – 25/04 – when Alphabet reported back in February the shares popped to their highest levels since September, before sliding back down again in early March on the back of the wider stock market selloff. We've since revisited those peaks but are currently struggling below the $110 level. The main focus of their Q4 numbers was on their advertising business as well as YouTube revenues, which have come under pressure in recent months as advertising budgets get cut and the economy slows. Q4 revenues came in at $76.05bn, slightly below expectations of $76.5bn, with net income falling to $13.6bn, or $10.05c a share. The main drag was in advertising with YouTube ad revenue coming in light at $7.96bn, down from $8.6bn a year ago, while advertising revenue came in at just over $59bn, also down from last year. The cloud business did see an improvement last year, rising to $7.3bn. Investors will also be hoping that the glitches that have affected its AI release known as Bard are closer to being resolved. Alphabet said it expects to incur charges of up to $2.3bn in respect of severance costs for 12,000 employees in its Q1 numbers when it reports later this week. Profits are expected to come in at $1.10c a share.     Meta Platforms Q1 23 – 26/04 – when Meta reported earlier this year the shares surged over 20% after beating on Q4 revenues, which came in at $32.17bn, while profits came in at $1.76c a share. The Facebook owner also announced a $40bn share buyback. Meta also said it expects to see Q1 revenues come in between $26bn to $28.5bn, which was in line with expectations, as the company saw active daily users rise to 2bn a day, also beating forecasts. The Reality Labs business continues to haemorrhage cash to the tune of a -$4.28bn operating loss in Q4, above expectations of a -$3.99bn loss, although revenues did increase, coming in at $727m. In March Meta said it was looking to cut thousands of more positions on top of the 11k it announced at the end of last year, which is likely to see costs rise in the short term. The share price gains seen so far this year have far outstripped its peers, up over 70%, however, these need to be set in the context of the falls last year which saw the shares tank over 70% from its record highs of $384 back in September 2021. Q1 profits are expected to come in at $1.99c a share. Read next: Astonished by the week ahead? Barclays, NatWest Group and Microsoft earnings are also released shortly| FXMAG.COM Amazon Q1 23 – 27/04 – in the lead-up to Amazon's Q4 numbers the shares tried to push above their 200-day SMA before slipping back.  In Q3 Amazon downgraded expectations around their Q4 revenues to between $140bn to $148bn, so it was welcome that they managed to beat on this, coming in at $149.2bn, while they also managed to eke out a profit of $300m or 3c a share. This was a nice bonus given warnings that we might see another loss due to another $2.3bn write-down from its stake in Rivian, which weighed on the top-line numbers. AWS was slightly weaker than expected, with revenues of $21.3bn, but these were still up 20% year over year. For the full year, Amazon posted $514bn in net sales, compared with $496.8bn in 2021, however, the company posted a net annual loss of $2.7bn, with Rivian knocking $12.7bn off that profit number, compared to a $33.4bn profit in 2021. In an attempt to better control its cash flow Amazon is slowing its capex expenditure pausing construction on its second HQ in Virginia. For its Q1 guidance, Amazon said it expects to deliver between $121bn and $126bn, which was slightly on the lower side of forecasts of $125.5bn. Profits are expected to come in at $0.20c a share.
    FX Daily: Resuming the Norm – Dollar Gains Momentum as Quarter-End Flows Fade

    Amazon presented solid numbers, Bank of Japan keeps the rates unchanged

    Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 28.04.2023 14:43
    European markets just about managed to eke out a gain yesterday, although the FTSE100 slipped back largely due to weakness in the energy sector. US markets underwent a much stronger session with strong gains across the board led by the Nasdaq 100, with most of the strength coming from Big Tech as earnings have by and large come in above expectations. This strong session in the US is expected to see European markets open higher later this morning. Amazon followed in the footsteps of a strong performance from Meta Platforms with a similarly strong set of Q1 numbers after US markets had closed last night, with outperformance across all its key business areas. Amazon When Amazon reported its full-year results 3 months ago their guidance was somewhat conservative, saying they expected to deliver revenues between $121bn and $126bn, which was slightly on the lower side of forecasts of $125.5bn. Last night's numbers saw net sales come in at $127.4bn, a 9% rise from the same quarter a year ago. North America saw sales rise by 11% to $76.9bn no doubt helped by the strong rebound in US retail sales we saw in January. Operating expenses saw a big fall in Q1, from levels of over $60bn in Q4, falling to $54.79bn, as headcount declined, although they are still higher from a year ago. Q4 does tend to be the highest quarter for spending given temporary hiring in the lead-up to Thanksgiving and the Christmas period.   We also saw a strong performance from AWS as cloud services saw revenues rise by 16% to $21.4bn. Profits came in above expectations at $3.2bn or $0.31c a share, despite another small write-down from its Rivian stake of $500m. On Q2 guidance the picture was equally upbeat with net sales forecast to come in between $127bn and $133bn, a rise of between 5% and 10%, however there was a warning about future crowd growth, which tempered gains after hours. The strong gains in US markets came despite a slowdown in Q1 GDP to 1.1% and a bigger-than-expected rise in Q1 core PCE to 4.9% from 4.4% in Q4. The continued strength seen in the big tech stocks this week is no doubt a relief for investors who feared that the numbers would disappoint, however, they also come against a very low bar. These estimates came from very low expectations at the start of this year when energy prices were higher. With the sharp falls that we've seen in energy prices seen since the start of the year, some of the pain on consumers' wallets has eased despite stickiness in core inflation, meaning that companies have by and large been able to pass on price rises without too much of a drop in volumes. When the penny finally drops with respect to this, perhaps the gains this week might start to run out of steam. Nonetheless, the rise in US treasury yields yesterday, with the US 2-year yield rising back above 4% suggests that we still expect to see another 25bps rate rise from the Federal Reserve next week, which in turn could prove to be a headwind for US stocks. Today's PCE core deflator numbers for March are likely to reaffirm that expectation with an unchanged reading of 4.6%, although yesterday's Q1 PCE numbers suggest that this number could come in higher, while the PCE deflator is expected to fall from 5% to 4.1%. Read next: Cryptocurrency payments are steadily increasing, particularly as the DeFi market rebounds from the ‘crypto winter’| FXMAG.COM Personal spending is expected to slow to -0.1% from 0.2%. In Europe it's a big day for Q1 GDP with a degree of optimism that the German economy might avoid a technical recession after a rebound in services helped to offset a weak manufacturing sector. In Q4 the German economy shrank by -0.4%, however, a mild winter has eased the pressure on the German economy, and it could eke out a 0.2% expansion. The French economy managed to follow its 0.1% expansion in Q4 with growth of 0.2%, while the Italian economy is expected to grow by 0.1%, also avoiding a technical recession. The Spanish economy is also expected to grow by 0.3%. EU GDP is expected to rebound from the -0.1% contraction seen in Q4 and grow by 0.2% in Q1. Earlier this morning Kazuo Ueda oversaw his first meeting as the new Bank of Japan governor and decided to leave monetary policy unchanged, which wasn't a great surprise. There had been an expectation that he might offer clues as to a possible pivot or tweak on the bank's yield curve control policy given that core inflation is at a 40-year high of 3.8%. In Asia the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged but dropped its forward guidance expectations that rates would stay at current or lower levels, although it offset that by saying that loose monetary policy would remain for as long as necessary to maintain its 2% inflation target. Forex EUR/USD – currently struggling to overcome the 1.1100 area, however, dips are hard to come by for the time being. A move through 1.1120 is needed to signal further gains. Below 1.0940 retargets the 1.0870 level. GBP/USD – feels like it wants to go higher but continues to struggle above the 1.2500 area. The support at the 1.2340 area needs to hold to keep the bias for a move towards 1.2630 intact or risk a move towards 1.2270.  EUR/GBP – another failure at the 0.8875 area for the third day in a row, has seen the euro slide back with a break below 0.8820 targeting trend line support from the August lows at 0.8770. A break above the 0.8870 area suggests a retest the March peaks of 0.8925. USD/JPY – while below the recent peaks at 135.20 the bias remains for a move towards 132.00. Above 135.20 retargets the 200-day SMA at 137.00. FTSE100 is expected to open 27 points higher at 7,858 DAX is expected to open 57 points higher at 15,857 CAC40 is expected to open 23 points higher at 7,506
    Vale Reports Strong Growth in Iron Ore Production, Chinese Aluminium Imports Rise

    US Stock Market Bounces Back: Resilience of Technology, Semiconductor Growth, and Fed Rate Pause Drive Recovery

    Maxim Manturov Maxim Manturov 29.06.2023 14:00
    After a difficult previous year marked by market volatility and economic difficulties, the US stock market has experienced a strong recovery since the start of the new year. This recovery was driven by several key factors: the resilience of the technology sector, growth in the semiconductor industry driven by the development of AI, the expected pause in Fed rate hikes and the assessment of future rate cuts in late 2023 amid lower inflation.    The technology sector, which includes leading companies in innovation and digital transformation, has played a critical role in the market's resurgence. Industry giants such as Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet have achieved significant stock price gains as they continue to innovate and provide products and services that meet changing consumer demands. The development of artificial intelligence technology has been a major catalyst for growth in the technology sector.   The semiconductor sector has also been one of the growth drivers of the markets. Companies such as Nvidia and AMD are experiencing strong demand for their advanced chipsets, which are vital for AI applications. The widespread adoption of AI technology across sectors has made semiconductor companies key drivers of innovation, contributing to their stock prices and overall market recovery.   The market was also supported by the expected decision of the Fed to pause its rate hikes. This pause in monetary policy tightening has helped to maintain the thesis of an end to the tightening cycle as early as H2 2023. 
    Stocks to keep an eye on in the second half of 2023

    Stocks to keep an eye on in the second half of 2023

    Maxim Manturov Maxim Manturov 29.06.2023 14:08
    Analysts at Freedom Finance Europe have highlighted several companies that investors should look out for in the second half of this year. One of them is Amazon (AMZN), which continues to grow revenues in key segments. "The company has too many positive catalysts to ignore, and the recent weakness provides an opportunity to enter into an attractive asset", says the speaker. In addition, despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, AMZN's revenues in the latest quarter exceeded the forecast range to $127.4 billion and operating profit was $4.8 billion. These results are due to growth in e-commerce. North American region, for example, saw double-digit sales increases and a return to profitability, while the international segment also saw strong growth. On top of that, company's cloud business revenues, Amazon Web Services were up 16% year-on-year.  "Management forecasts sales growth of 10%, to $133 billion in the next quarter, with operating profit expected to remain stable, at between $2 billion and $5.5 billion. These results and forecasts look quite compelling. The company has also built an unrivalled logistics network for parcel delivery, sometimes with same-day delivery", said the speaker. These factors take Amazon’s potential to a maximum target price of $220.  Next up is the well-known coffee chain Starbucks (SBUX). As the speaker explained, the company is considered an attractive and long-term investment due to its commitment to shareholder value, revenue growth and higher earnings per stock. SBUX had a solid quarter. In Q2 2023, Starbucks had revenue of $8.7 billion, up 14% year-on-year. EPS increased by 36% compared to the same period in 2022. Even more impressively, Starbucks quarterly sales and EPS were 38% and 49% higher than the same period in 2019 (before the pandemic). The company also has a rewards programme that rewards customers for repeat purchases. For example, there are currently 30.8 million active loyalty programme members in the US. That's an increase of 15% over last year.   "Coffee is an integral part of society and it is hard to imagine a scenario where Starbucks ever disappears. The company has almost 37,000 shops and the goal is to have 55,000 outlets worldwide by 2030", the speaker added. The fundamental potential for an average target price is at $114. Another company that may be worth taking a closer look at is Booking Holdings (BKNG), which operates in the online travel industry. In particular, it offers services through its Booking.com, KAYAK, Priceline, Agoda, Rentalcars.com and OpenTable brands. Data from the Economist Intelligence Unit shows that the segment is expected to grow by 30% in 2023 as the number of Chinese tourists abroad may increase. "In previous years, the 'zero COVID' policy has held back tourism from China, which has recently been a major source of growth. As the situation changes this year, Booking Holdings could benefit from this. In addition, the number of trips remains below 2019 levels, which leaves room for growth and continues a solid recovery", explained the speaker. BKNG's revenue increased by $4 billion in the last quarter, and it continues to benefit from a network advantage that has allowed it to maintain its agency model rather than move to a vendor model where the online travel agency would be responsible for paying the fees. Fundamental potential for an average target price of $2800.  
    Market Watch: Earnings Boost and Consumer Confidence Surge Ahead of Key FOMC Decision

    US Dollar Slides Below Critical Support Amid Tougher Capital Requirements and Cautious Market Sentiment

    Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 11.07.2023 08:33
    US dollar slides below critical support.   The week started on a cautious note as European and US stocks eked out small gains, but appetite was limited appetite on news that the new capital requirements for the US banks would be tougher. And mega caps didn't give much support. Tesla lost up to 2% during the session, while Amazon closed the session more than 2% lower before its Prime Day – which now became an industrywide shopping day and will give us a hint on how much US consumers are ready to up their spending online. Meta, on the other hand, advanced 1.23%, as Threads already amassed 100 mio users since its launch last week, while internet traffic data from Cloudflare showed that Twitter use 'tanked'.   Tougher rules Michael Barr said yesterday that he will recommend tougher capital rules for banks with $100 billion or more in assets, as opposed to those that have $700bn and more so far concerned with the tough rules. More importantly, unrealized losses (and gains) on security portfolios will be considered when calculating regulatory proposal, a thing that could've helped avoiding Silicon Valley Bank's (SVB) collapse, but that will also put a bigger pressure on banks that bought tons of US treasuries and that are now sitting on significantly discounted portfolios. The good news is that big banks like JP Morgan and Citi didn't react aggressively to the news, and even more reassuring news is that the smaller, regional bank stocks tempered the news quite well as well. Pacwest for example lost only around 1% and Invesco's KBW index even closed the session slightly higher. What's less reassuring, however, is the fact that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue pushing the interest rates higher, and that will put an extra pressure on lenders, and the regional lenders are the most vulnerable to rate changes.   By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank
    The Japanese Yen Retreats as USD/JPY Gains Momentum

    Stock Rally Driven by Soft Inflation and Strong Earnings

    Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 14.07.2023 08:30
    Soft inflation, strong earnings fuel stock rally  We are having a great week in terms of US inflation news. After Wednesday's data showed that the US headline inflation slowed to 3%, and core inflation fell to 4.8% - both lower than what analysts had penciled in, yesterday's producer price inflation data also came in lower than expected. The monthly PPI eased to 0.1%, perhaps the last positive figure we see before sinking into negative territory in the coming months, and core PPI fell to 2.6%. One more good news, some underlying details in the PPI report, including health care and hotel accommodations, are used to compute the Fed's favourite PCE Price Index that will be released in the coming weeks – which could also benefit from softening inflation trend.    As a result, the US 2-year yield fell another 15bp yesterday and hit 4.60%, while the 10-year yield retreated below 3.80%. The US dollar index slipped below the 100 mark. This is the first time the US dollar index has traded below this level since April 2022, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is not seen getting more aggressive than this when inflation is slowing. Plus, one of the most aggressively hawkish Fed members, James Bullard, resigned yesterday. The probability of another 25bp hike at the Fed's July meeting didn't change much. It's still given more than 90% probability. But the chances of another rate hike following the June hike are getting blurrier, so equity markets cheer the softening Fed expectations. The S&P500 extended gains yesterday and closed the session above the 4500 mark for the first time since April 2022, while Nasdaq 100 rallied another 1.73%. Amazon jumped to a 10-month high yesterday after reporting record sales during its Prime Day. Happily, this week's inflation numbers were sufficiently soothing, so that the record Prime Day sales didn't boost inflation expectations. MAMAA stocks were up by 1.72%. Crude oil on the other hand rallied past the 200-DMA, near $77pb, and consolidates at around that level this morning. Supply shortages in Libya and Nigeria are pushing price higher but the IEA says that global oil demand won't rise as much as they previously forecasted due to the weakened economies of developed nations. It will increase by around 2.2mbpd, +2%. This is 200'000 barrels less than previously forecasted. It could help bring the bears back to the market at around the 200-DMA. The $77/80 barrel resistance will be difficult to drill because the market is now approaching overbought conditions and a key technical level is generally a good moment to sell, and because otherwise it would be bad news for inflation expectations, and the Fed.    One good news is that, although the resilience of the US jobs market remains a major concern for the Fed, the stock market rally could be a much smaller concern because the Fed recently launched a financial conditions index, an index that takes into account bond yields, mortgage rates, the stock market, Zillow's house price index and the dollar's value on global currency markets to determine how the market conditions would impact growth. And the index showed that the financial conditions in the US became increasingly less favourable this year and hit an all-time peak in December when they were more of a drag on growth than at any time in recent decades, apart from the 2008 financial crisis. And at the current levels, the market conditions remain historically unfavourable to growth – and that despite the stock market rally.     Slow growth is bad for stock valuations, but investors remain focused on earnings, rather than the overall financial conditions, and we have good news on the earnings front so far. Delta Airlines for example jumped to the highest level since April 2021 yesterday after reporting after announcing record revenue and profit in Q2 andsaying that they are 'looking at a very, very strong Q3', as indicated by their guidance, and that they could have a strong Q4 as well. While PepsiCo rallied almost 2.40% after revealing a strong quarter thanks to higher prices they could ask from customers, and after raising its sales and earnings estimates. Today, some big US banks will go to the earnings confessional. The big banks benefited from ample deposit inflows following the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse in March, but their net interest income is expected to have declined, credit costs are normalizing, and they have increased expenses due to inflation. So, the numbers could be soft, but what matters for investors is the comparison between the numbers and expectations. If expectations are better than the actual numbers, stock prices will not be hurt. And that's why Goldman Sachs is out trying to dampen expectations, so that the results can more easily beat them!    By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank    
    Top 10 Stocks to Watch: August 2023 - BY: RYAN SULLIVAN

    Top 10 Stocks to Watch: August 2023 - BY: RYAN SULLIVAN

    Ryan Sullivan Ryan Sullivan 03.08.2023 11:31
    Top 10 Stocks to Watch: August 2023 BY:RYAN SULLIVAN Our list of hot summer stocks includes ecommerce, auto, gambling, entertainment, retail and AI S&P 500 E-Mini Futures reached a year-to-date high of about $4,600, with potential for new all-time highs if it surpasses resistance at $4,630 and $4,700.  The $4,500 support level could be tested if the current bull run ends, possibly triggering another push toward all-time highs.  Stock options can be beneficial after earnings reports to dodge binary volatility but exploit short-term fluctuations.  Market update: S&P 500 e-mini futures up 18% year to date  The S&P 500 e-mini futures—electronically-traded futures and options contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)—pushed to new year-to-date highs this month on July 12. Since then, we have continued higher to $4,600. We are currently retesting this year-to-date (YTD) high. As I type, the S&P is ticking into $4,600. The next key resistance level above current price action is around $4,630, and the next stop after that is around $4,700.  If price action breaks through $4,630 with force, look for bulls to target $4,700. If that happens as we roll into August, and we do tag $4,700, it would not be too surprising if we try to push to new all-time highs in the S&P 500.    It is also possible that this is the last leg up for the current bull run that started at the end of May this year. If that is the case, the next thing the bears are going to want to test is the $4,500 level support. If $4,500 support holds, we could then see a push to all-time highs anyway.   If the market doesn’t want to record an all-time high yet, it is likely that price action bounces around $4,500 looking for either buyers or sellers to take control.  A quick note on the stock picks in this article; you can put on an options position right after an earnings report, so that you can avoid the binary volatility event but still take advantage of short-term volatility.    Year-to-date price percent change chart for SPY, QQQ, SLV and TLT     Top 10 stocks to watch in August 2023   UBER – 8/1 - Before the Open  AMD – 8/1 - After the Close  PYPL - 8/2 - After the Close  SHOP – 8/2 - After the Close  AMZN – 8/3 - After the Close  DKNG – 8/3 - After the Close  RIVN - 8/8 - After the Close  DIS – 8/9 - After the Close  TGT - 8/16 - Before the Open  NVDA – 8/23 - After the Close  1) Uber Technologies Uber (UBER), a multinational ride-hailing company, disrupted traditional taxi services. Beyond transportation, Uber has diversified into new verticals like food delivery with Uber Eats and freight logistics with Uber Freight. It operates in numerous cities globally and primarily makes money by taking a commission from each ride or delivery.  Uber stock is trading at $47.28, an 86.34% increase from its 2023 opening price of $25.37. The current implied volatility rank (IVR) on the tastytrade platform is 34.5, with the implied volatility (IV) in the next two monthly contracts above 47. Uber has reported positive net income in one of the last five quarterly reports.  Uber’s options market in August and September contracts is a couple pennies wide and offers a field to craft almost any assumption you might have. The product is small enough for a strangle position in smaller accounts. Iron Condors and spreads will also set up well. August and September contracts can be used for earnings plays. It may be helpful to play earnings in August and roll out to September if you need to.     2) Advanced Micro Devices Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), a leading global semiconductor company, designs and builds processors and graphic cards for computers and professional systems. AMD is known for its consumer- and professional-grade CPUs (central processing units) under the Ryzen, Threadripper and EPYC brands, as well as Radeon GPUs (graphic processing units). The company competes directly with Intel (INTC) in the CPU market and Nvidia (NVDA) in the GPU market.  AMD is trading at $112.36, up 70.25% from its opening price of $66.00 in 2023. The IVR on the tastytrade platform is 45.4, with IV in the next two monthly contracts above 49. AMD has reported positive net income in four of the last five quarterly reports.  This options market in August and September is pennies wide and offers the opportunity to form almost any options position you’d like to put on. Five- and 10-dollar wide iron condors and spreads set up well. Make your earnings play in August and roll out to September if you need to.    3) PayPal Holdings PayPal (PYPL), an American company operating a worldwide online payments system, supports online money transfers. PayPal serves as an electronic alternative to traditional paper methods like checks and money orders, enabling users to make payments or hold funds in 25 currencies. The company also offers services like credit product offerings and has business solutions that help merchants collect payments.  PayPal is trading at $73.42, a -0.37% change from its 2023 opening price of $73.69. The IVR on the tastytrade platform is 25.3, and the IV in the next two monthly contracts is above 42. Paypal has reported positive net income in four of the last five quarterly reports.  Paypal’s options market in August and September is pennies wide. An eighteen-delta short Strangle sets up well in August and September with a decent premium to buying power requirement ratio. Short thirty-delta Spreads also set up well if you have a directional assumption.    4) Shopify  Shopify (SHOP), a Canadian e-commerce company, provides a platform for businesses to create their own online stores. Shopify offers tools for managing products, inventory, payments and shipping, which are used by businesses of all sizes. Shopify's platform is subscription-based, and it also generates revenue from its payment processing system, Shopify Payments, as well as other merchant solutions.  Shopify is trading at $65.26, up 82.9% from its opening price of $35.68 in 2023. The IVR on the tastytrade platform is 32.6, with the IV in the next two monthly contracts above 58. Moreover, SHOP has reported positive net income in one of the last five quarterly reports.  Short 17-delta Strangles set up well in August and September, with a good premium collected to buying power required ratio. Iron condors and spreads will also set up well if you’d like to define your risk going into an earnings play.    5) Amazon  Amazon (AMZN), an American multinational technology company that started as an online marketplace for books, but has expanded to a wide variety of products and services. It is known for its disruption of well-established industries through technological innovation and mass scale. It is now the world's largest online marketplace, AI assistant provider, live-streaming platform and cloud computing platform, with various other operations in areas like digital streaming, brick-and-mortar retailing and more.  Amazon is trading at $129.10, reflecting a 51.06% increase from its opening price in 2023. The IVR on the tastytrade platform is 30.3, and the IV in the next two monthly contracts is above 38. Amazon has reported positive net income in three of the last five quarterly reports.  Amazon’s options market is very liquid and pennies wide in August and September. A liquid market like Amazon's offers the opportunity to craft almost any type of options position you’d like create. Calendar spreads are available if you’d like to take advantage of the difference in volatility between monthly contracts. Strangles, iron condors and spreads also set up well.     6) DraftKings  DraftKings (DKNG), a digital sports entertainment and gaming company, provides daily fantasy sports, sports betting and iGaming. DraftKings enables users to enter daily and weekly contests and win money based on individual player and team performances in five major American sports, Premier League and UEFA Champions League soccer, NASCAR auto racing, Canadian Football League, mixed martial arts, and tennis.   DraftKings is trading at $31.50, marking a significant increase of 170.15% from its 2023 opening price of $11.66. The IVR on the tastytrade platform is 28.2, while the IV in the next two monthly contracts stands above 60. However, DKNG has not reported positive net income in any of its last five quarterly reports.  DKNG is a small enough product and has liquid enough markets for smaller accounts to consider an undefined risk position. However, be cautious because smaller underlyings tend to make bigger moves when they get going. At-the-money spreads also set up well for directional assumptions.   Read more
    US Equities Slide 1.5% as Bond Yields Soar Amid Consumer Confidence Drop

    US Equities Slide 1.5% as Bond Yields Soar Amid Consumer Confidence Drop

    Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 27.09.2023 14:55
    The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell 1.5% amid weaker new home sales, consumer confidence, and elevated bond yields. Amazon dropped 4% due to an antitrust lawsuit. The DXY dollar index reached YTD highs above 105.80. USDCAD rose to 1.3520 while GBPUSD slid below 1.2150 and the next target at 1.20. Gold tested $1900 amid rising yields, while Copper hit 4-month lows. The Hang Seng Index and CSI300 declined as news of China Evergrande's bond repayment failure weighed. The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.      US Equities: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 tumbled by 1.5% due to softer readings on new home sales and the Conference Board consumer confidence survey, triggering selling in consumer discretionary and information technology. Amazon, impacted by news of an antitrust lawsuit, plummeted by 4%. Elevated bond yields also continued to weigh on market sentiment.     Fixed income: Treasury yields continued to hover at elevated levels, with the 30-year yield edging up by 2bps to 4.68%, while the 2-year and 10-year yields held steady at 5.12% and 4.54%, respectively. The selling pressure was particularly concentrated in the longer end of the curve as the high yield levels attracted strong demand in the 2-year auction.     China/HK Equities: The Hang Seng Index and CSI300 sank once again. The news that Hengda Real Estate Group, the mainland unit of China Evergrande, failed to make payments of RMB4 billion in principal and interest due yesterday further dampened market sentiment. The Hang Seng Index plummeted 1.5% to 17,467, marking a new low in 2023. The CSI300 slid 0.6%.     FX: The DXY dollar index broke higher to fresh YTD highs, having taken out the 105.80 resistance, as high-end Treasury yields continued to rise. Data remained soft, helping keep the short-end yields capped but Fed member Kashkari, who is usually a dove, noting he puts a 40% probability on a scenario where Fed will have to raise rates significantly higher to beat inflation and a 60% probability of a soft landing. USDCAD rose to 1.3520 while GBPUSD slid below 1.2150 and next target at 1.20. EURUSD plunged further to lows of 1.0562 while USDJPY is hovering close to the 150-mark and verbal jawboning continues to have little effect.     Commodities: The message on higher-for-longer was felt in the crude market as oil prices dipped earlier in the session with WTI falling to lows of ~$88/barrel and Brent going below $92. API inventory data also showed a crude build of 1.586 million barrels last week vs. expectations of a 1.65 million drop, but oil prices recovered later. Gold tests $1900 amid yield surge and Copper down to fresh 4-month lows at $3.62.     Macro: US consumer confidence fell for a second consecutive month to 103.0 from 108.7 (upwardly revised from 106.1) and beneath the expected 105.5. Present Situation Index marginally rose to 147.1 (prev. 146.7), while the Expectations Index declined further to 73.7 (prev. 83.3), falling back below 80 - the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. Inflation expectations for the 12 months ahead were unchanged at 5.7% in September. New home sales in the US fell 8.7% to 675k from 739k (upwardly revised from 714k), shy of the consensus 700k. Fed's Kashkari has published an essay where he says there is a 60% chance of a soft landing with a 40% chance the Fed will have to hike 'significantly higher'. Macro events:  BoJ Minutes (Jul), US Durable Goods (Aug)     In the news: FTC Sues Amazon, Alleging Illegal Online-Marketplace Monopoly (WSJ) Foreign brands including Tesla to face scrutiny as part of EU probe into China car subsidies (FT) Senate leaders agree on a short-term spending bill, aiming to avert a shutdown, extending government funding until November 17, pending House approval (CNN). For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.  
    Renewable Realities: 2023 Sees a Sharp Slide as Costs Surge

    US Payrolls: Key Test in a Strong Week for Stock Markets

    Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 03.11.2023 14:08
    US payrolls the key test in a strong week for stock markets  By Michael Hewson (Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)   European markets saw their best one-day session in 3 weeks, with the DAX closing at a two-week high, helped by a combination of some solid earnings reports, and tumbling yields on growing optimism that central banks have hit peak rates, after the Bank of England followed the Fed in holding rates at current levels. US markets saw a similarly strong session, rising for the 4th day in a row, with the S&P500 rising to a 2-week high, while US 10- and 30-year yields falling more than 25bps in the last 2 days, reinforcing the idea that the rate hike narrative of the last 18 months is now in the rear-view mirror.     Of course, this narrative will still need to be supported by the underlying economic data, and in the case of the US is likely to be subject to two-way risks given the continued resilience of the US labour market.   Today's non-farm payrolls report for October will be the first key test of that narrative in the aftermath of Wednesday's decision by the Federal Reserve to pause for the second meeting in succession, with the goldilocks scenario for markets likely to be one of a softish or neutral report.   Having seen such a strong US close, European markets look set to open higher as we look towards this afternoon's US jobs report.     Before that we get the latest PMI snapshot from the services sector for the UK economy ahead of Q3 GDP numbers which are due next week. Recent data has shown the UK economy is slowing significantly compared to the first half and with manufacturing already in contraction, the services sector is now starting to slow as well, slipping slightly into contraction over the last 3-months we can expect to see further stagnation around 49.2.   After the release of those numbers' attention will shift to the US employment report.   Weekly jobless claims fell back below 200k earlier this month for the first time since January in a sign that the US economy remains reasonably resilient, and although they've ticked up to 217k since then there has been little sign of a slowdown.   In September we saw yet another bumper payroll report with another 336k jobs added, while August was revised up to 227k, which pushed US long term yields higher on the day to new 16-year highs, although we've since slipped back sharply, due to a belief that the Federal Reserve is probably done on the rate hike front.   Wage growth was slightly softer than expected at 4.2%. Another notable factoid was a big jump in part-time positions which rose 151k and could also explain why wage growth showed little sign of racing higher. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.8%.   This weeks ADP payrolls report for October was another weak one, coming in at 113k, only a modest improvement from the 89k in September, however there has been little to any correlation between the two reports for months now, while vacancies in the US economy have remained high, which suggests little sign that the US economy is starting slow significantly.   One thing that has been notable this year is how every single non-farm payroll report has come in above expectations, and by quite some distance. Will today's numbers be any different?  to note is There is scope for that given that the participation rate has been rising, it was at 62.4% at the start of the year and is now at 62.8%, still 0.5% below the level it was pre-pandemic.   Expectations are for today's October payrolls to come in at 185k, which has been the estimate of choice over the last 3 months.   Most of the new jobs being added have been in services over the last few months and today's ISM services data could well offer further insights into that after the payroll's numbers have been released.   ISM services employment was at 53.4 in September and is expected to rise to 53.5, while prices paid is expected to slow to 56.6 from 58.9. This is where the US labour market is most resilient, and will need to remain so in the lead-up to Christmas.   Amazon has already indicated it will be hiring up to 250 seasonal workers in the lead up to the holiday period. Will it be alone in hiring extra people, when retailers like Target are warning that US shoppers are slowing their spending plans?             EUR/USD – pushed up to the top end of its recent range, and the 1.0675 highs of this week. We continue to be range bound between the 1.0700 area and the 50-day SMA. Below 1.0520 targets the 1.0450 level   GBP/USD – pushed above the 1.2200 area yesterday, but has thus far failed to consolidate that move. Major support remains at the October lows just above 1.2030. Below 1.2000 targets the 1.1800 area. Resistance at 1.2300.   EUR/GBP – finding support at the 0.8680 area for now, with a break targeting the 0.8620 area. We have resistance at the recent highs at 0.8740.   USD/JPY – slipped back to the 149.80 area yesterday, we still have resistance just below the highs of last year at 151.95. Still have strong support all the way back at 148.75, with a break above 152.20 targeting a move to 155.00.   FTSE100 is expected to open 33 points higher at 7,479   DAX is expected to open 79 points higher at 15,222   CAC40 is expected to open 36 points higher at 7,096  
    UK Inflation Dynamics Shape Expectations for Central Bank Actions

    The Finish Line: Reflections on 2023 and a Glimpse into 2024

    Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 02.01.2024 12:48
    The Finish Line By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank   Here we are, on the last trading day of the year. This year was completely different than what was expected. We were expecting the US to enter recession, but the US printed around 5% growth in the Q3. We were expecting the Chinese post-Covid reopening to boost the Chinese growth and fuel global inflation, but a year after the end of China's zero-Covid measures, China is suffocating due to an unexpected deflation and worsening property crisis. We were expecting last year's negative correlation between stocks and bonds to reverse – as recession would boost bond appetite but batter stocks. None happened.  The biggest takeaway of this year is the birth of ChatGPT which propelled AI right into the middle of our lives. Nasdaq 100 stocks close the year at an ATH, Nvidia – which was the biggest winner of this year's AI rally dwarfed everything that compared to it. Nvidia shares gained more than 350% this year. That's more than twice the performance of Bitcoin – which also had a good year mind you.   Besides Nvidia, ChatGPT's sugar daddy Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta, Google and Tesla – the so-called Magnificent 7 generated almost all of the S&P500 and Nasdaq100's returns this year. And thanks to this few handfuls of stocks, Nasdaq100 is set for its best year since 1999 following a $7 trillion surge.   The million-dollar question is what will happen next year. Of course, we don't know, nobody knows, and our crystal balls completely missed the AI rally that marked 2023, yet the general expectation is a cool down in the technology rally, and a rebalancing between the big tech stocks and the S&P493 on narrowing profit lead for the Magnificent 7 compared to the rest of the index in 2024. T  The other thing is, the S&P500's direction next year is unclear as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to start chopping the interest rates, with the first rate cut expected to happen as early as much with more than 85% probability. So what will the Fed cuts mean for the S&P500? Looking at what happened in the past, the S&P500 typically rises after the first rate cut, but the sustainability of the gains will depend on the underlying economic fundamentals. Lower rates are good for the S&P500 valuations EXCEPT when the economy enters recession within the next 12-months. So that backs the idea that I have been trying to convey here since weeks: lower US yields will be supportive of the S&P500 valuations as long as the economy remains strong, and earnings expectations hold up.    For now, they do. The S&P500 earnings will certainly end a bit better than flat this year, and the EPS is expected to rise by more than 10% next year. The Magnificent 7 are expected to post around 22% EPS growth next year. But note that, these expectations are mostly priced in, so yes, there will still be a hangover and a correction period after a relentless two-month rally triggered a broad-based risk euphoria among investors. The S&P500 is about to print its 9th consecutive week of gains – which would be its longest winning streak in 20 years.  In the FX, the US dollar index rebounded yesterday as treasury yields rose following a weak sale of 7-year notes. But the US dollar is still set for its worse year since 2020. Gold prepares to close the year near ATH, the EURUSD will likely reach the finish line above 1.10 and the USDJPY having tested but haven't been able to clear the 140 support. In the coming weeks, I would expect the EURUSD to ease on rising expectations from the ECB doves, and/or on the back of a retreat from the Fed doves. We could see a minor rebound in the USDJPY if the Japanese manage to calm down the BoJ hawks' ambitions. Overall, I wouldn't be surprised to see the US dollar recover against most majors in the first weeks of next year.  In the energy, crude oil remains downbeat. The barrel of American crude couldn't extend rally after breaking the $75pb earlier this week, and that failure to add on to the gains is now bringing the oil bears back to the market. The barrel of US crude sank below the $72pb as the US oil inventories slumped by more than 7mio barrels last week, much more than a 2-mio-barrel decline expected. The latter brought forward the demand concerns and washed out the supply worries due to the Red Sea tensions. Note that crude oil is set for its biggest yearly decline since 2020; OPEC's efforts to curb production and the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remained surprisingly inefficient to boost appetite in oil this year. 
    Federal Reserve's Stance: Holding Rates Steady Amidst Market Expectations, with a Cautionary Tone on Overly Aggressive Rate Cut Pricings

    2023 Key Highlights & Cross-Assets Performances: A Comprehensive Review and Outlook for 2024

    Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 02.01.2024 13:18
    2023 key highlights & cross-assets performances in the past 2 years Fig 1: Cross assets performances as of 29 Dec 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)   The US Federal Reserve’s stance of keeping interest rates higher for a longer period in the first half of 2023 triggered a resilient US dollar environment in the absence of a recession scenario in the US that led the US stock market to outperform the rest of the world. The outperformance of the US stock market in 2023 was led by the Magnificent 7 (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet/Google, Nvidia, Meta, Tesla) mega-cap technology stocks that have stronger balance sheets and are skewed toward “AI productivity” theme play. Also, these 7 stocks have a significant combined market-cap weightage in the Nasdaq 100 that recorded an annual gain of 54% in 2023 (2.3 times S&P 500’s 2023 returns). US regional banking crisis that led to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank & First Republic Bank due to poor balance sheet risk management reinforced by outsized mark-to-market losses on longer-term US Treasuries (higher US Treasury yields via Fed’s tightening monetary policy). It also indirectly led to the demise of Credit Suisse which eventually was brought over by rival UBS. The US regional banking crisis was just a blip, negated by a liquidity backstop orchestrated by the US Treasury; the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP). The risk-off behaviour in Q3 reversed abruptly in Q4 to a raging risk-on FOMO behaviour triggered by a significant easing liquidity condition in the US; the rapid drawdown of the Fed’s overnight reverse repo facility from a peak of US$2.55 trillion in December 2022 to US$683.25 billion (-74%) for the week of 11 Dec 2023 as money market funds that choose to invest their surplus cash in short-term US Treasury bills instead (rather than parking in overnight reverse repos facility) which in turn helped to fund the US Treasury general account (also US Treasury’s issuance switch from longer-term Treasuries to T-bills for funding needs). A rise in the expectations of a Fed’s dovish pivot where the first Fed funds rate cut is priced in to come as early in March 2024 indicated by the CME FedWatch tool that led to a slide of 120 basis points (bps) in the US 10-year Treasury yield from a 16-year high of 5% printed on 23 October 2023, synchronized with a weakening US dollar that kickstarted a rally in almost all asset classes (equities, bonds, gold, cryptocurrencies) except oil & China-related risk assets. China’s post-Covid re-opening bullish theme play on China and Hong Kong stock markets fizzled out after Q1 due to a heightened deflationary risk spiral caused by a persistent weak property market in China. The Hang Seng Index ended 2023 with a fourth consecutive annual loss of -14% (prior years’ losses of -15% in 2022, -14% in 2021 & -3% in 2020); its worst performance streak since 2000. Due to China’s structural weakness (deflationary risk spiral), China, and Hong Kong stock markets failed to respond to the cyclical upswing in risk assets during Q4 2023 reinforced by renewed US dollar weakness. The CSI 300 and Hang Seng Index recorded losses of -7% and -4.3% respectively in Q4 whereas the MSCI Emerging Markets Ex China exchange-traded fund gained by +12.5% over the same period, slightly outperformed the US S&P 500’s Q4 return of +11.24% The Japanese yen (JPY) plummeted to a 33-year low against the US dollar in Q3 2023 due to the Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s newly appointed Governor Ueda’s reluctance to offer firm guidance to normalize its short-term negative interest rate policy despite Japan’s core inflation rate had exceeded BoJ’s 2% target for the 20th consecutive month. Emerging themes for 2024 A potentially weaker US dollar due to the shrinkage of the US Treasury yield spread premium against the rest of the world, and a potential major JPY strength revival triggered by internal economic factors (service prices in Tokyo rose at their fastest pace since 1994 to a record gain of 3% y/y in November 2023, indicating an increase in the odds of sustainable wage-driven inflationary growth), political and business groups’ mounting pressures against a weaker JPY. The rest of the world equities may outperform the US stock market due to a weaker US dollar environment. Keep a lookout on China for potentially more “generous” fiscal and monetary policy stimulus measures that may stoke positive animal spirits in the short to medium term for China and Hong Kong stock markets. The stepped-up dovish expectations on the upcoming Fed’s interest rate cut cycle compiled with rosy earnings forecasts by analysts polled by FactSet that are projecting an earnings growth of +11.5% y/y for the US S&P 500 in CY 2024, a significant improvement from an expected CY 2023 earnings growth of just 0.6% which in turn have indicated another year of goldilocks scenario for the US economy. In contrast, the hastened speed of 6 interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2024 projected by market participants in the interest rates futures market also implied a probable US recession-liked scenario in 2024. In addition, the latest November 2023 data of the Conference Board US Leading Economic Index (LEI) has continued to flash a recession signal reinforced by weakness in the housing and labour market. If a recession hits the US economy in the second half of 2024, earnings downgrades are likely to materialize and the initial projected S&P 500 CY 2024 earnings growth rate of +11.5% is likely to be tapered to the downside which in turn may trigger a risk-off scenario that can overshadow the initial positive feedback loop from easing liquidity conditions. Potential heightened geopolitical tension between the US and China that may also spark a risk-off scenario in the latter part of 2024; the recently concluded China’s annual economic work plan conference attended by the top leadership stated that 2024 top priority will be on building a modern industrial system with a focus on developing cutting-edge technologies and artificial intelligence. Making high-tech industrialization a key priority in 2024 is likely to invite more scrutinization from neo-conservative US politicians that may put a strain on the current US-China relationship in the run-up to the November 2024 US presidential election. There is likely to be intense debate among the presidential candidates and finger-pointing again at China’s current industrialization policy that needs to be “neutralized” due to its potential national security threat to the US. Chart Of The Year – a potential major top in USD/JPY Fig 2: USD/JPY major trend as of 2 Jan 2024 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The price actions of USD/JPY have declined by 8% to hit an intraday low of 140.25 in December 2023 after a bearish reaction from its 151.95 long-term pivotal resistance printed in mid-November 2023. The USD/JPY has traced out a potential impending major bearish reversal “Double Top” configuration considering the developments of its price actions from October 2022 to November 2023. In addition, the weekly MACD trend indicator has flashed out a bearish divergence condition over the same period (October 2022 to November 2023) which indicates the major uptrend phase from the March 2020 low of 101.18 has started to lose upside momentum which in turn increases the odds of a multi-month corrective decline to unfold next. A breakdown with a weekly close below 137.65 support exposes the next major support zone of 130.70/127.10 (also the neckline of the “Double Top” & 50% Fibonacci retracement of the prior major uptrend phase from March 2020 low to November 2023 high). On the other hand, a clearance above 151.95 invalidates the bearish scenario to see the next major resistance coming in at 159.30 in the first step.  

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