alibaba

All hell broke loose yesterday, as the Russian President Putin said on a TV address that he recognizes the Ukraine’s two separatist regions Donetsk and Luhansk as republics. The latest statement also hints to the end of the Minsk agreement and clearly heightens the risk of a Russian invasion in Ukraine in the coming days. Market reaction: equities are under a decent selling pressure, Bitcoin extends losses, natural gas, oil and gold rally, safe haven currencies are up. Expect high volatility in the coming sessions. Elsewhere, Alibaba nosedived on fresh news that authorities asked the Chinese banks to check their exposure to Ant Group, which could further damage the company’s ties with other financial institutions for its online-loan business. Other Chinese tech stocks are also feeling the threat of further government crackdown. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:26 Putin gets aggressive 1:40 Strong market reaction 2:28 Oil up 3:12 Commodities up 3:38 Bitcoin down 3:56 Gold up 4:57 Safe haven franc, yen gain 5:57 Swiss banks under pressure amid Swiss Secrets 6:36 Alibaba, Tencent hit by fresh govt news Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.

Alibaba stock soars in Hong Kong, up nearly 3%. Delisting fears may finally be clearing way for Chinese stocks. BABA stock is already surging in Monday's US premarket. Alibaba (BABA) stock is once again making gains in the premarket following on the back of some solid gains for BABA in Hong Kong overnight. BABA stock is currently ahead by nearly 4% in early Monday premarket trading. Alibaba Stock News The main reason behind this gain is news that China may relax restrictions on audits of some of its firms that are listed in the US. The back story is of course the ongoing delisting fears that have hung over the Chinese tech stocks listed in the US. This kicked off back two years ago when the proposed Alibaba (BABA) spin-off of ANT Group was halted at the last minute. This was due to apparent criticism from BABA chairman Jack Ma, but it did bring Chinese attention to US-listed stocks. Thus began a regulatory crackdown with various names dragged into the melee. DiDi Global (DIDI) was one of the most successful US IPOs, but the shares collapsed as the threat of delisting hung over the stock. The latest news from the China Securities Regulation Commission (CSRC) is that it plans to revise confidentially tules that could pave the way for US regulators and auditors to have access. This would remove the threat of delisting in the US from the SEC. Bloomberg reported last week that such access could be made to US auditors by the middle of 2022. Alibaba Stock Forecast After the recent recovery rally, BABA stock has consolidated around the $110 to $120 level. Consolidation is usually a chance for the stock to regroup before continuing in the direction of the current trend. The problem with BABA is that the current trend is positive, but the longer-term one is hugely negative. So it is some job to turn around that negative sentiment. Doing so likely means BABA needs to break $138. This is the low from October 2021, and then the level acted as resistance in January. There is also a noted volume gap from $130 to $160, which could see the move accelerate. $110 is the key level to hold above to give this movie a chance. Alibaba (BABA) stock chart, daily

Nasdaq100 has added over 2% on Monday, in contrast with a more modest gain of 0.8% for the S&P500 and a barely notable 0.3% rise for the Dow Jones. But this is not a signal of general optimism from market participants; instead, it’s a switch in focus to Chinese companies. Often the outperformance of technology-rich Nasdaq is taken as a signal of an accelerating economy and a move by investors to look for assets that outperform the broader market during an economic boom. But along with that, we would see the Russell Index, which includes 2,000 small US stock market companies, outperform. And it was only up 0.2% over Monday, struggling to move into positive territory by the end of the day yesterday. On the other hand, Chinese companies are going from weak to growth drivers. However, this is nothing more than a recovery from lows after a year of aggressive declines. Earlier in March, China’s H-shar lost more than half its value in 13 months of sell-off. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 40% at its lowest point, plunging to 2016 lows. In the first half of March, the most significant acceleration came on signals that China and the US had moved from trade wars to financial wars as the latter threatened to delist. However, financial market turbulence is the last thing Xi Jinping needs this year, as there will be an election at the end of it, where he will be the leading candidate. Improving the economic situation is often the most effective way for the incumbent to gain electoral support. And China has a lot to work with. Much the same can be said for the US, where the November Senate elections will be held. Democrat Biden’s record-low approval rating plays against his party in the coming elections and the rising stagflation threat. The threat of delisting from the US is a blow to prestige, but it also closes off access to the softest financial terms for new companies and the deepest pool of liquidity. China could only afford it in the event of mania in Chinese markets and a booming Chinese economy. But that is not the case right now. The PRC economy lags behind its forecast growth trajectory due to continued covid lockdowns. Achieving the expected 5.5% GDP growth this year requires stimulus and easing of monetary policy, regardless of inflation risks and without regard to the rest of the world, which is tightening policy. This is a favourable environment for the market, at least for the time being. The Chinese equity market thus ceases to be a ‘sick man’, dragging global equity indices down and suppressing investor interest. On the contrary, even after returning to 5-week highs, Chinese equities still look very cheap, turning into a leading idea for the markets with a 9% jump in Baidu and a 6.6% rise in Alibaba on Monday. Placed amongst others in the US, Alibaba and Baidu, the biggest of which are now pulling the indices up, spreading positivity across the entire tech sector. Twitter’s 27% jump in shares on reports of Musk’s 9.2% stake in the company says more about the market’s mood to look for growth drivers than how much this passive share of the Tesla CEO can help the social network. And that’s good news a couple of weeks before the start of the new reporting season after a worrying first quarter.

Summary: Alibaba and other Chinese based companies may be able to return to normal production levels. BABA stocks to benefit as lockdowns in China continue to ease Although the US Stock markets are closed on Monday due to memorial day celebrations, Alibaba Share price has risen in the wake of China beginning to re-open after Covid-19 lockdowns. The lockdowns in China had taken a toll on many Chinese based companies due to slowing production, however, the easing of the lockdowns means that companies like Alibaba have a chance to start speeding up their production. Currently, according to a source on finance.yahoo.com, the shares of Alibaba are fairly priced at the moment. BABA Price Chart Read next: S&P 500 Sees Good Start To The Week, UK Economy Not Performing As Well As Its Major Economy Counter Parts  Sources: finance.yahoo.com

Summary: US listed Chinese Stocks are going on their third day of price gains Read next: Coffee Supplies Remain Tight, Supply and Demand Concerns Are Easing For Palladium , WTI Crude Oil Nearing March High  Alibaba stock prices are jumping US listed Chinese Stocks are going on their third day of price gains. The recent wave of video game batch approvals, offering hope for Chinese tech stocks. This move from Chinese regulators shows a step in the direction of a softening stance towards internet firms. The Alibaba share price is up more than 10.5% as of Wednesday. The rise in stock price for Chinese tech stocks comes as a relief to the current market sentiment amidst US markets are gripped by the thought of higher interest rates. In addition, the easing of lockdowns in major cities in China mixed with a line of better-than-expected earnings results are also contributing to boosting investor risk sentiment. BABA Price Chart Sources: barrons.com, finance.yahoo.com, bloomberg.com

The equity rally in the US didn’t pick up momentum after the Federal Reserve (Fed) released its latest meeting minutes, which sounded more hawkish-than-expected, or more hawkish-than-what-was-needed-to-give-another-boost to the US stock markets. The biggest take was that the Fed will continue tightening its policy until it sees that inflation is ‘firmly on path back to 2%’. The S&P500 fell 0.72% as Nasdaq gave back 1.20%, although the jump in the US 2-year yield was relatively soft, and the Fed funds futures scaled back the expectation of a 75 bp hike in the next meeting. Crude price completed an ABCD pattern, and it is more likely than not we see the price rebound to the $100 level in the medium run. In China, Tencent announced its first ever revenue drop as government crackdown continued taking a toll on its sales, and the pound couldn’t gain even after the above 10% inflation data boosted the Bank of England (BoE) hawks and the call fall steeper rate hikes to tame inflation in the UK. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:28 As expected, Fed minutes were more hawkish-than-expected 3:39 Crude oil has more chance to rebound than to fall 6:02 Tencent posts first-ever revenue drop 7:14 Apple extends gains, but technicals warn of correction 8:38 Pound unable to extend gains despite rising Fed hawks’ voices Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Fed #FOMC #minutes #USD #GBP #inflation #Tencent #Alibaba #earnings #crude #oil #natural #gas #coal #futures #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

NetEase is a Chinese technology company that operates in three segments - online games, search engine (Youdao) and online music (Cloud Music). The company operates both in China and internationally. It is famous for games such as 'The Lord of the Rings: Rise to War', 'Vikingard', 'Lifeafter' and 'Knives Out'. Its shares have fallen more than 10% since the beginning of the year, along with other companies in the Chinese technology sector, by the Chinese government's ambiguous action in the area of interference in their operations, fears of delisting in the US and deteriorating economic indicators in China. However, it is fair to say that its price has still proved to be far more resilient to the issues mentioned above than those of Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu. The company's revenue was 23.2 billion renminbi (US$3.5 billion) in the second quarter, growing 12.8 % year-on-year, slightly beating Wall Street analysts' expectations. Cloud Music revenue grew the most to 2.2 billion renminbi ($327.2 million), rising 29.5% year on year. Online gaming remains the most important revenue stream, with Q2 revenue of 18.1 billion renminbi ($2.7 billion). This increased by 15% compared to the same period a year ago. This was mainly due to the debut of Diablo Immortal, co-developed by NetEase with Blizzard Entertainment. According to the company's report, it became the most downloaded game on the IOS platform in some regions. Major franchise titles had their longevity extended, including the fantasy series Westward Journey and Westward Journey Online, as well as Identity V and Infinite Lagrange. "Players continued to gravitate to our longstanding games in the second quarter, highlighting our strength in game operations longevity. Moreover, the launch of Diablo® Immortal™ attracted the attention of gamers around the world, showcasing our exceptional mobile game development capabilities" - stated CEO William Ding. Revenue fell sharply in the Youdao area, down 29.5% year on year. However, this is the smallest source of revenue and only amounted to 956.2 million renminbi ($142.8 million) in the quarter. Q2 saw a net profit of $790 million, due to lower costs of player retention costs compared to new player acquisitions. Earnings per share (EPS) for those listed in New York were $1.22 on an adjusted basis, beating analysts' estimates by 17 cents. NetEase shares gained almost 3% before the market opened. Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: NetEase increases profits despite declining revenues

Since the beginning of July, the crypto market seemed to be on the rise. The largest tokens (BTC and ETH) at the local peak, gained around 35% and 101% respectively. However, today at 11:30 GMT+3 BTC is losing around 7.3% and ETH around 8%. Today, ETH broke through its price channel and the 20-day moving average. If the price does not return to the channel in the next couple of days, we will be able to say that a possible reversal of the short-term trend we mentioned in previous articles has taken place. Especially if this is confirmed by indicators such as the Wilder directional indicator. BTC has also moved far out of its price channel and is currently below the 10, 20 and 50-day moving averages. The directional indicator has already shown a potential trend reversal and the MACD is approaching the negative zone. Today on the Conotoxia MT5 platform at 11:00 GMT+3, Filecoin (FIL) is down the most. It is experiencing a loss of almost 18%. According to Coinmarketcap, it has a capitalisation of almost $1.8 billion and a daily volume of over $511 million. Filecoin was launched in 2020 to decentralise data storage, providing an alternative to industry giants such as Amazon and Alibaba at a cost reduction of almost 99%. The project's network connects storage providers with customers looking for a place to keep their data. Those offering their storage from laptops to server rooms after verifying data integrity and security can obtain a FIL token as a reward. This creates a highly diversified and low-cost database network. However, the characteristics of the project are inherently inflationary, unlike BTC. The declines described are attributed to a broad market correction, the exit of 'big money' and growing pessimism about the increasing supply of FIL tokens. Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: The crypto market falls as profits are realised

Summary: Alibaba stock tanks on Monday. Warmer weather prospects driving NGAS down. Goldman Sachs has established a new joint venture in China. Rishi Sunak on track to become the next U.K Prime Minister. Markets reacted to President Xi Jinping’s re-election As markets reacted to President Xi Jinping consolidating power following his historic confirmation to a third term as head of the second-largest economy in the world, shares of Chinese corporations were falling on Monday. Alibaba (ticker: BABA) lost 12% in premarket trade in the United States. Investors are spooked by President Xi Jinping's increasing control over China's ruling party as he begins a record-setting third term with no apparent successor. In addition, the 14th edition of the 11.11 Global Shopping Festival ("11.11" or "Festival"), which will feature more than 290,000 brands, was formally launched today by Alibaba Group Holding Limited. ⚠️BREAKING:*ALIBABA STOCK PLUNGES 11% IN HONG KONG AMID BROAD CHINA SELLOFF$BABA 🇨🇳🇭🇰 pic.twitter.com/qd0XErYE4B — Investing.com (@Investingcom) October 24, 2022 European gas prices fall as supply prospects improve Following predictions of warmer-than-usual weather for the majority of the continent over the coming week, European natural gas futures fell once again during the opening hours of trading on Monday. Weather predictions that continental Europe will see temperatures this week that are between 4 and 8 degrees Celsius warmer than the seasonal norm, predicting reduced demand and enabling importers to continue injecting excess gas into storage, served as the primary impetus for the decision. ​​In order to relieve the pressure brought on by Russia's effective supply suspension, Europe has been able to fill its storage facilities ahead of schedule thanks to a mild start to the winter heating season and aggressive buying of liquefied natural gas on spot markets. EU storage facilities were 93.4% full as of Sunday, with the two largest markets on the continent, Germany and Italy, posting even higher levels. ⚠️BREAKING:*EUROPEAN GAS PRICES TUMBLE TO LOWEST SINCE JULY ON EASING SUPPLY FEARS 🇪🇺🇪🇺 pic.twitter.com/nGg49xSG1T — Investing.com (@Investingcom) October 24, 2022 Goldman Sachs’ new joint venture In an effort to increase investment in Chinese logistics and infrastructure real estate assets, Goldman Sachs has established a joint venture in China with local logistics firm Sunjade, the U.S. bank announced on Monday. According to a company release, the bank is creating the new subsidiary through its investment arm Goldman Sachs Asset Management, which has made more than $50 billion in real estate-related investments worldwide. The stock structure or the amount of money committed to the platform were not disclosed. The joint venture has invested in a 240,000 square meter project with four institutional-grade warehouse assets in Shanghai and the surrounding region. The joint venture focuses on projects in China's first-tier cities and neighboring areas. The new platform, according to the U.S. bank, will profit from China's growing demand for brand-new, high-quality infrastructure assets, particularly institutional-quality storage space driven by e-commerce and the diversification of industrial requirements supported by government policies. Goldman Sachs launches Chinese infrastructure real estate joint venture https://t.co/HdGJm9ExlH pic.twitter.com/mmj53hkACz — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 24, 2022 Rishi Sunak on track to be next U.K PM After Boris Johnson withdrew from the race on Sunday night and the markets breathed a sigh of relief, Rishi Sunak, a former chancellor, was on track to become the new prime minister of Britain on Monday. After the likelihood of further imminent political and economic unrest decreased, the value of the pound increased on Monday. Johnson, who was having trouble gaining support, acknowledged that due to divisions among Tory MPs, even if he had won, he could not have governed "effectively." If Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons and his sole remaining competitor, is unable to secure the necessary 100 nominations from Tory MPs, Sunak will take over as the party's leader at 2 p.m. on Monday. Rishi Sunak’s priority should be to restore stability and the UK’s reputation https://t.co/WLKJCGg49X — Financial Times (@FT) October 24, 2022 Sources: finance.yahoo.com, ft.com, twitter.com

Summary:  In today’s five minute video we bring you up to speed with what traders and investors in Australia at Saxo, have been doing this week. It reflects the two major drives of markets, higher for longer interest rates in US and a potential recession. On the other side, some clients are somewhat excited about China’s major cities easing restrictions, and dangling the carrot to ease further. We explore if upside is sustainable in metals, such as iron ore and why buying is picking up in the US dollar, with the USD index seeing its strongest gain in 12 weeks.   Investors and traders are bunkering into the theme of higher for longer interest rates in the US, and a potential recession This is the major theme that's driving markets and pushed global equities lowers this week. So we’ve been seeing profit taking, a little more selling and options put on tech companies, including Tesla, Google, and Apple  - more so than the last few weeks. And buying of the US dollar picked up again; with the DXY set for its biggest gain in 12 weeks, ahead of US CPI next week and the final Fed decision for 2022. There is pent up investor demand for investing in China’s reopening theme This is the second major driver of markets of late. It comes as five major cities have eased restrictions and dangled the carrot to ease further. As well as potentially scrapping mask wearing.  Commodities buying picked up on the platform at Saxo, given there are hopes for China to fast track economic growth next year. Buying in lithium stocks;  Pilbara Minerals, Allkem picked up  Buying in Fortescue Metals also picked up. This is because the commodity Fortescue makes 90% of its revenue from, iron ore (SCOA) the key steel making ingredient, rose 3.6% this week, taking its gain from the October low to 44%, with the price of the iron ore hitting $110.20, a new four month high. The price of iron ore has been rallying as China is easing restrictions and today the market heard whispers that Chinese property developers will get more support, which would support demand for iron ore rising. However it looks like buying volume in iron ore slowed for now. So perhaps until we see more concrete announcements or further easing of restrictions, iron ore and iron ore miners could maybe see a bit of profit or buying fade next week, especially as iron ore stocks were this weeks best performers. Once we get more hopes, the iron ore price might be supported higher along with upside in iron ore majors shares; Fortescue Metals, Champion Iron, BHP and Rio. Also, next week, iron ore majors may see share price upgrades from buy and sell side brokers. Buying in China Tech picked up;  given there are favourable interest rates in China, pent up demand, and restriction are easing. As such buying in Alibaba picked up.  In energy markets, buying in coal stocks picked up; with Whitehaven Coal buy orders rising.  And lastly, buying in airlines shares picked up as well. Especially in those air companies that travel in and out of Hong Kong, Such as Cathay Pacific. Qantas also saw increased buys.     For a weekly look at what to watch in markets - tune into our Spotlight.For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: Video: What traders and investors have been buying amid recession concerns versus China easing restrictions | Saxo Group (home.saxo)      

Alibaba founder Jack Ma cuts voting stake in Ant Group to 6%. BABA stock jumps more than 4% on the news. Jack Ma's control of Ant Group has placed Alibaba at odds with Chinese regulators. NASDAQ futures have risen 0.3% in Monday's premarket. Alibaba stock has broken above $105 resistance level, eyes $125 next. Alibaba (BABA) founder Jack Ma has buoyed shares of the Chinese online retail leader after formally ending his control of Ant Group. Bringing another part of Alibaba's upheaval to a close, Jack Ma reduced his voting power in two holding companies that control a majority of Ant Financial. This former Alibaba subsidiary owns Alipay. Alibaba stock shot up more than 8% in Hong Kong on the news and has risen 4.6% in the US premarket on Monday to $112.35. Alibaba stock news: Ant Group saga likely to stop holding BABA share price back Jack Ma and company spun Alipay and other fintech departments out into a separate company now called Ant Group back in the middle of the last decade. When Jack Ma decided to criticize Chinese financial regulators in the leadup to Ant Group's giant IPO in late 2020, however, Chinese authorities clapped back. Soon enough Ant Group's IPO was being canceled, and Alibaba, which owns about one-third of the Chinese version of Block (SQ) or PayPal (PYPL), steadily saw its relationship with the Chinese state grow precarious. This led BABA stock to collapse by more than 75% and drag much of the rest of the Chinese tech sector with it throughout 2021 and 2022. Investors are now optimistic that all that negativity is behind China's Amazon (AMZN) after Jack Ma agreed to allow himself and his partners to vote individually as part of the two investor groups, meaning that Ma now officially has much less than majority control over Ant Financial. In fact, Ma will now only control about 6% of voting power after giving up his voting rights to one of the two holding companies. This means that Alibaba's 33% stake in Ant is now much more significant than before the announcement as well. "In order to continue to optimize our corporate governance and achieve long-term sustainable development, Ant Group [...] has been undertaking several initiatives since 2021. We have increased the number of independent directors to four, which constitutes half of the incumbent members of our board of directors," announced Ant Group in a statement. "Our board has also formed six sub-committees, among which are the Risk Management and Consumer Rights Protection Committee and the ESG Sustainable Development Committee. In addition, we plan to add a fifth independent director, after which independent directors will comprise a majority of our board." Read next: The Aussie Pair Is Trading Above 0.69$, The Euro Above 1.07, The British Pound Also Benefits From A Weak Dollar| FXMAG.COM The statement continued: "No shareholder will have the power to nominate the majority of Ant Group's board of directors. Therefore, no shareholder, alone or jointly with other parties, will have control over Ant Group."   New corporate ownershipo structure of Ant Group / Source: Ant Group As the major indices in the United States are trading ahead slightly in Monday's futures market, with the tech-focused NASDAQ up 0.3% to lead the pack, expect Alibaba stock's premarket rally to translate to the regular session. BABA stock was already up 16.8% year to date before Monday's news and will likely exceed 20% once the regular session gets going. After muddling through two horrible years for Alibaba stock, investors should take this as a positive sign that the worst must be behind them. Alibaba stock forecast Alibaba stock has blown through the $103 to $105.25 supply zone that has held BABA in place since July 2022. The resistance zone pushed prices lower in three weeks between late July and late August of last summer. With the stock moving well above $112 in the premarket, this region will likely become support in the subsequent weeks. The weekly chart below shows that the next price level for profit-taking is not until $125. That price level worked as resistance in January, February and July of 2022. The Accumulation / Distribution line on the weekly chart shows that accumulation has been taking place since late October. This can be taken as a sign that the upward momentum in BABA stock may not be shortlived. Well below the current price for BABA, both the 8-week and 30-week moving average appears to be converging near $89, which will likely now serve as long-term support. BABA weekly chart

Activist investor Ryan Cohen Activist investor Ryan Cohen is pushing the Chinese e-commerce giant to accelerate and further strengthen its share buyback program. Microsoft Corp. plans to incorporate AI tools such as ChatGPT into all its products and make them available as platforms for other companies. Alibaba Share buybacks Share buybacks can support equities by reducing the supply of traded shares and increasing earnings per share. Investors often treat them as a bullish signal because they suggest that executives are optimistic about their company's prospects and confident about its financial situation. Cohen, with a net worth of over $2.5 billion and a stock portfolio that includes Apple Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc., first contacted Alibaba's management in August to voice his opinion that the company's stock is deeply undervalued based on his belief that he could achieve double-digit sales and nearly 20% free cash flow growth over the next five years. Cohen also expressed confidence that Apple, in which he owns more than $800 million, could provide a roadmap for Alibaba. The Active Investor also expressed admiration for management's ability to drive earnings growth while accumulating high-quality assets. While the stakes are small compared to Alibaba's market capitalization of nearly $300 billion, Cohen has a large following among individual investors who often follow in his footsteps. Following Cohen's initial announcement, Alibaba announced in November that its board of directors had approved expanding the company's share buyback program by $15 billion to $40 billion. Cohen told Alibaba's board of directors that the share buyback plan could be increased by another $20 billion to about $60 billion. Alibaba shares rose about 67% from a multi-year low in October. At that time, the share price was 63.22. After that, they increased from November, and the new year brought positive signals and the BABA price reached 117.01. OpenAI and Microsoft OpenAI has been at the center of a recent spike in artificial intelligence in the tech industry, and Microsoft is in advanced talks to increase investment in the startup. Speaking on Tuesday at the Wall Street Journal panel at the World Economic Forum's annual event in the Swiss mountains, Nadella said his company will quickly move to commercialize OpenAI tools, the research lab behind the ChatGPT chatbot, as well as the Dall-E 2 image generator. Nadella said in in an interview that the new excitement about tools is due to the rapid growth in their capabilities last year, which he said he expects to continue. Those in office jobs engaged in so-called knowledge-based work should embrace the new tools rather than assume they'll steal their jobs, Nadella said, citing the example of computer software developers now using tools to help them generate some of the code they write. Microsoft's CEO was also optimistic about the wider economic potential of tools like ChatGPT that can quickly generate fluent-sounding text based on short queries or prompts. Microsoft recently said it was giving more customers access to the software behind these tools through its Azure cloud computing platform. After falling to the level of 222.31, Microsoft stock prices are rising and recently reached the level of 239.18. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com

BABA suggests the continuation of the bearish trend, which takes the form of a cycle triple zigzag consisting of sub-waves w-x-y-x-z The actionary wave y and the intervening wave x have been completed, they are double zigzags. Wave z may be under development. It is likely to take the form of a primary zigzag â’¶-â’·-â’¸. Read next: It seems that British pound against US dollar has the potential to reach 1.37-1.38 | FXMAG.COM There is a high probability that the impulse â’¶ and correction â’· have already been fully completed. In the near future, we can expect a decline to 48.37 in the sub-wave â’¸. At the specified mark, wave z will be at 38.2% of wave y. Alternatively, the construction of the intervening wave x continues. Perhaps it will take the form of a primary double zigzag â“Œ-Ⓧ-â“Ž. The first two parts, that is, the zigzag sub-waves â“Œ-Ⓧ, look finished. Wave â“Ž is under development. It may take a zigzag structure of the intermediate degree (A)-(B)-(C), as shown in the chart. The stock price may rise to 140.99. At that level, cycle intervening wave x will be at 38.2% of actionary wave y.

  Summary:  Earnings focus moves to Asia this week, even though US retail earnings from Walmart and Home Depot will still be key. Outlook from airlines like Singapore Airlines and Qantas, as well as commodity giants like BHP and Rio and Singapore’s agri player Wilmar, will add more colour on the potential pickup in Chinese demand. China’s tech sector and its progress on ChatGPT style products will also be a key focus as Alibaba and Baidu report. Singapore bank earnings also in focus. ChatGPT craze on test in China technology sector Alibaba (BABA:xnys) and Baidu (09888:xhkg) report earnings this week, and the key focus will be on the outlook on the potential for artificial intelligence (AI) as well as the impact from easing crackdown of the Chinese government on the internet companies. While Baidu is likely to see the ongoing recovery in its advertisement business and upside in cloud opportunity become more supportive, key focus for investors will be on any further details on its ChatGPT-style product which the company is expected to launch in March. Alibaba is also likely in the race for an AI Chatbot, but earnings will take some time to capture the real enthusiasm from China’s reopening. Both Alibaba and Baidu have seen a rebound in their share prices this year, market will be focused on evidence of an earnings recovery and a strong outlook to sustain the price momentum. Travel demand outlook from airline stocks on watch Earnings reports from Singapore Airlines (C6L:xses), Qantas Airlines (QAN:xasx) and Air New Zealand (AIZ:xasx) will be key to assess how the Asia reopening theme has been playing out. More importantly, the outlook for the travel and tourism sector will be on watch in anticipation of the return of Chinese tourists. US airlines earnings results for Q4 have been strong amid booming demand and a decline in jet fuel prices, and a similar momentum remains likely from Asian airline results due in the week. Singapore Airlines has recently reported a 400% increase in passenger traffic in January from last year amid year-end traffic and the Lunar New Year holiday, but it is still trading below historical averages and at a discount to its regional peers. Qantas is expected to return to profitability, and also appears undervalued despite being up 55% from its 2022 lows. Air New Zealand also reports this week. Singapore banks remain a key dividend play Singapore’s largest bank DBS (D05:xses) reported bumper Q4 earnings last week, and declared a special dividend. The other two banks, UOB (U11:xses) and OCBC (O39:xses) will be reporting this week and are also likely to show resilient earnings. UOB reports on Thursday pre-market and may be able to garner gains in net interest income and show a greater impact from the acquisition of Citi’s retail banking business, but that will be offset by lower wealth management fee amid continued investor caution. OCBC's profit remains more vulnerable than that of DBS and UOB due to its large wealth-management and insurance businesses, which account for 50% of non-interest income. Commodity giants BHP, Rio Tinto and agricultural producer Wilmar also on tap Resource company BHP Group (BHP:xnys) reports earnings before Australia open on Tuesday, and dividend payout is expected at USD 0.88, well below the USD 1.50 declared in February 2022 amid the Oz Minerals acquisition being in play. Market expects lower revenues and earnings compared to last year due to the weakness in iron ore and copper prices. Rio Tinto (RIO:xlon) reports full year results on Wednesday, and plans for Pilbara (PLS:xasx), its lithium arm, will be key to watch. The focus will also be on BHP and Rio’s upcoming projects and outlook for the year ahead, with supply constraints reigning and expectations of Chinese demand picking up. Another lithium player Allkem (AKE:xasx) also reports results this week. On the agri side, Singapore’s Wilmar (F34:xses) is expected to report record profits for 2022 and outlook is likely to remain positive as well with China demand picking up. Source: Asia: Key earnings this week will add more color on the potential from incoming China demand boost | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Summary:  US equity markets erased their losses overnight, aided by a rise in Nvidia shares boosting chip and tech stocks. Fed’s preferred inflation gauge the PCE is up next and may reaffirm sticky inflation again. The Japanese yen volatility is in focus after softer-than-expected January inflation print, and as policy stance of BOJ nominee Ueda is evaluated from the ongoing parliamentary hearings. Crude oil prices reversed higher but Copper back close to the key $4 area.   What’s happening in markets? The Nasdaq 100 (NAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) had a wild session, but ended higher after bond yields fell from three-month highs US equity markets had a bumpy Thursday, awaiting the Fed’s core inflation gauge –the personal consumption index being released. However, after four days of losses, the S&P500 gained 0.5%, although it’s still down 1.6% Monday to Thursday. The S&P500 managed to move back above 4,000 level after the 10-year US bond yield fell from its fresh high - moving back to December levels of 3.871%. While bullish outlooks supported the market higher as well – with Nvidia shares up 14% on its bullish outlook - with Microsoft and Apple following higher. Despite that, US earnings are still muted YoY - highlighting margin compression- while there is still nervousness in the air- as the FOMC meeting minutes pointed to more tightening on the horizon. While there is also risk if the Fed’s inflation gauge (PCE) rises more than expected, the Fed could gain reason to become more hawkish – and that could see the S&P500 quickly test the 200-day moving average.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HIG3) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) had a mixed day; Techtronic tumbled 19%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index and China's CSI300 had a mixed day of trading. The Hang Seng Index slid 0.4%, while the CSI300 was flat. Techtronic (00669:xhkg) shares plunged 19% after a forensic research firm accused the power tool maker of inflating profits by capitalizing expenses as assets. Meanwhile, China internet names, tech hardware, and EV stocks rallied, with Bilibili (09626:xhkg) rising 3.6%, NetEase (0999:xhkg) climbing 4.1%; Lenovo (00992:xhkg) surging 5.5%, and Nio (09866:xhkg) up 4%. Baidu (09888:xhkg) fell 0.5%, despite reporting revenues and earnings that beat market expectations and announcing a share buyback program of up to USD5 billion. According to Nikkei Asia, Chinese regulators have told Tencent Holdings and Ant Group not to offer ChatGPT services to the public as the regulators are increasingly concerned about uncensored replies given to users. Australian equities (ASXSP200.I) moved up after three days of declines The Australian share market moved up 0.3%, up slightly above its 50-day moving average today - after a bevy of better than expected company earnings bolstered sentiment. Global pallet business, Brambles shares rose almost 7% to six month highs after upgrading its profit guidance ~7% to 15-18% growth with pallet demand in the US and UK improving. Australia’s biggest lithium company, Pilbara Minerals shares are up 2.6% after reporting record results- a A$1.24 billion net profit and declared its first ever dividend – of A$0.11. Just like Albemarle, Pilbara sees a strong lithium market ahead. Pilbara also upgraded its production guidance for the year – expecting to produce 600,000 to 620,000 dmt of spodumene concentrate – up from its prior guidance of 540,000 to 580,000 dmt. This reflects what we have been seeing this Australian reporting season – mining companies are upgrading their output guidance to keep up with expectations for strong demand, plus they are also seeing improved labour conditions. Block Inc (SQ and SQ2) rallied 7% to $116.44 on the ASX after 4Q net revenue rose more than expected, up 14% to $4.65 billion, beating estimates of $4.57 billion. It comes as Bitcoin revenue rose more than expected, to $1.83 billion vs $1.79 billion expected, while hardware revenue from its Square in store payments rose slightly more than expected. As for the year ahead  - Block sees 2023 adjusted EBITDA of $1.3 billion - which is more than $1.28b est - and its margin growing by at least 1 percentage point. So far this year, Afterpay sales are up 19% and credit quality is holding up- despite higher interest rates. Afterpay's loss rate is expected to stay 1% in Q1 this year - which is a slight improvement of its Afterpay loss rate in 2019 and 2018 of 1.1% and 1.5%.   Broadly the Aussie market has been pressured by Australian bond yields moving to their highest levels since January- 3.87%. That’s a better yield/ return than the broad Australia share market’s 3.5% yield. This shift has pressured the ASX200 down 3.8% from its record highs. But some stocks are still rising, with a cohort of companies benefiting from the reopening of the Chinese economy  - and on expectations of higher earnings ahead. Such stocks are in the travel sector; shares  FX: JPY volatility in focus The Japanese yen started the Asian session stronger after a weaker-than-expected inflation print for January, but the start of BOJ nominee Ueda’s parliamentary hearings brought a reaffirmation of the loose BOJ monetary policy and that saw USDJPY bidding up to 134.80. Yen volatility will remain in focus today and next week, also parking concerns of volatility in the global bond markets, as Bank of Japan’s renewed policy direction remains in focus. Crude oil (CLJ3 & LCOJ3) prices rebound 2% despite higher inventories Crude oil prices rallied on Thursday despite another higher inventory built. US crude stocks built 7.6mn barrels last week, significantly higher than analyst expectations of 2mn. The supply side concerns may have been in focus after Russia announced this week that it will cut exports to the West in March, in addition the previously announced production cuts. However, focus was also on indications of a pickup in gasoline demand along with a decline in US gasoline inventories. Copper prices decline on higher USD and awaiting China activity improvement Copper prices were down 3% amid rising concerns of further rate hikes by central banks after a marginally hawkish FOMC minutes this week. The market is also becoming increasingly impatient with the recovery in demand in China. There has been little meaningful sign that demand is rebounding. Copper prices fell to $4.05/lb bring the $4 support in focus.  Read next: The Euro Fell Below 1.06, The USD/JPY Pair Is Close To 135.00| FXMAG.COM What to consider? US GDP revised a notch lower, jobless claims fell The second estimate of Q4 GDP was released in the US, and was revised lower to 2.7% from the prelim 2.9%. The Core PCE measure, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, was revised to 4.3% from 3.9%, suggesting price pressure in Q4 were higher that previously reported. While slower activity and higher inflation components seem to be making the Fed’s task more difficult, labor market still remained strong which suggests that any slowdown in growth will be likely very slow. Weekly initial jobless claims dropped to the lowest in 4 weeks at 192k from the prior 195k. Japan’s January CPI softer than expected, eyes on Ueda’s hearings January inflation print in Japan came in-line with expectations on the headline at 4.3% YoY from the prior 4.0% YoY but was marginally below expectations on the core measures. Ex fresh food and energy was out at 3.2% YoY, above last month’s 3.0% YoY but below the expected 3.3%. Inflation remains above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, and price pressures are broad-based. Focus now turns to BOJ nominee Kazuo Ueda’s parliamentary hearings in the lower house today as markets ponder over his policy direction. Worrying signal on the inflation front in the Eurozone Yesterday, inflation was confirmed higher than initially reported in the eurozone in January (headline at 8.6% year-over-year and core at 5.3% - this represents a 0.1 percentage point higher). What is even more worrying is that the EZ CPI basket showed the most broad-based price increase on record. 76 % of the basked experienced a month-over-month increase above 0.2 %. This is up from 52 % in December 2022. There is little doubt that the European Central Bank (ECB) will hike interest rates by 50 basis points in March. But we think the ECB is not done anytime soon with the tightening process. The terminal rate is probably closer to 4% than expected by the market consensus. Booking Holdings (BKNG:xnas) reports record 2022 revenue suggesting travel demand surge Booking Holdings reported higher-than-expected revenue for Q4 at $4.05bn (up 36% YoY), beating analyst forecasts of $3.9bn. Adjusted EPS of $24.74 was also above the expected $21.51. Q1 forecast was also upbeat, suggesting resilient travel demand despite inflation pressures. Booking Holdings is a part of our Asia Pacific Tourism equity theme basket which we launched in anticipation of the recovery in Chinese outbound travel demand. Alibaba (09988:xhkg/BABA:xnas) beats earnings estimates on cost cutting Alibaba reported better-than-expected results for its fourth quarter. Adjusted EPS of 19.26 yuan (on revenue of 247.76bn yuan) was above consensus of 16.63 reflecting deep cost cutting measures. EBITA grew 16% Y/Y on cost cuts and smaller losses from Taocaicai. The cloud computing revenue was only up 3.3% while the core Chinese commerce business slid 1%. The eCommerce giant’s ADRs closed down 2.9% from the level of Hong Kong closing amid management comments on the need to increase investments to stay competitive in the year ahead. OCBC (O39:xses) reports Q4 net income miss Oversea-China Banking Corp. reported an increase of 34% in net profits in the fourth quarter to S$ 1.31bn which fell short of estimates of S$ 1.68bn. Net interest income was up 60% YoY but non-interest income slid 42% due to lower wealth management fee. Final dividend of S$0.40 was up from S$0.12 last year, and the lack of a DBS-like special dividend could mean the stock could be beaten up near-term.     For what to watch in the markets this week – read or watch our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: Markets Today: BOJ stance in focus, PCE inflation report ahead – 24 February 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Summary:  US equities closed mixed for the week with a lacklustre session on Friday as as traders look forward to the heart of earnings season this week and next. The EuroStoxx 50 index is eyeing its all-time highs after posting its highest daily close ever, just shy of a late 2021 intraday high-water mark. Elsewhere, higher yields after firm initial April PMI surveys in Europe and the US have gold wilting back below 2,000, while oil prices continue their recent slump despite the OPEC production cuts announced three weeks ago. What is our trading focus? US equities (US500.I and USNAS100.I): Headed lower inside April’s trading range US equities have headed lower since the Tesla earnings disappointed the market last week and this morning S&P 500 futures are trading around the 4,137 level, which is still well within the established trading range for April. The key event in equities this week is the Q1 earnings season with major earnings expected from US technology companies Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon. The first test this week on earnings is already today with Coca-Cola reporting Q1 earnings ahead of the market open. Chinese equities (HK50.I & 02846:xhkg): Hang Seng Index dropped below 20,000 Hang Seng Index traded weak across the board, falling over 1% and going below the 20000 level. Tencent (00700:xhkg) shed 2.4% and Alibaba (09988:xhkg) slid around 2%. Banking, property, and Macao casino operator names were among the laggards. Digital healthcare platform name and selective auto stocks gained. Sentiment has been under pressure since last Friday following a Bloomberg report that the U.S. is planning to impose wider than previously reported restrictions on American businesses to invest in semiconductors, AI, and quantum computing in China. CSI300 retreated 0.8% in early Asia afternoon as the weakness in semiconductors, tourism, lodging, and precious metal names more than offset the gains in media and online gaming. FX: Commodity FX in the dumps, JPY eyes first Ueda BoJ meeting The US dollar was mixed and didn’t cut much of a profile last week, where the biggest movers where commodity related currencies, including the Australian dollar, which limped lower to start the week as key commodity prices like copper continued their slide. AUDUSD traded below 0.6678 for the first time in over a week, with more range to work with down to the early March pivot low at 0.6565. Similarly, CAD and NOK traded softer in another drop in oil prices, with USDCAD firming up above 1.3550 Friday and testing a more than three-week high. The trades slightly weaker after a bump in global yields Friday and as the market awaits the first Bank of Japan meeting with new governor Kazuo Ueda at the helm on Friday. Crude oil trades lower on falling refinery margins Crude oil prices traded lower in Asia overnight on a combination of technical factors, such as ongoing attempts to close the gaps down to $80 in Brent and $75.70 in WTI as well as long-liquidation from funds that bought futures contracts following the April 3 OPEC+ production cut announcement. The short-term fundamental outlook also continues to deteriorate with recession worries more than offsetting supply cuts as refinery margins remain under pressure across all the major trading hubs sending a warning sign about demand ahead of the peak consumption season. The drop in refinery margins can partly be explained by record production from top refiners in China and India taking advantage of cheap Russian oil, as well as increased refinery activity in the Middle East. Over time, rising refinery capacity leading to lower margins will be good for consumers Read next: IG analyst to FXMAG.COM: In my opinion commodity prices already reflect higher oil prices| FXMAG.COM Gold and silver consolidating continues Precious metals remain in consolidation mode ahead of the latest US figures on growth, inflation and wages this week as the market fears they could support further rate hikes from the FOMC. In gold the risk remains of a a deeper correction towards $1957 - the 38.2% retracement of the banking-crisis-led runup in prices while silver will likely look for support around $24.50, an area that offered resistance when during silvers failed rally back in January and early February. Funds cut their gold length in COMEX futures for a second week but again by a relatively small 3.3k lots to 134k lots. The net selling was primarily driven by a 23% increase in the gross short following two failed attempts to extend the recent rally in gold beyond $2050. Treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas): yields rebound on firm US PMI’s US treasury yields rose all along the curve in the wake of the firmer than expected US S&P Global preliminary April PMI, with the 2-year yield closing over 5 basis points higher from the day’s lows and near 4.17% as the market leans for a rate hike at next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. The action was echoed in the 10-year benchmark yields as well the intraday low of 3.50% provided resistance and the strong data saw the benchmark jumping back above 3.55%. What is going on? The Eurozone services economy is doing quite well The Eurozone April flash PMI were a positive surprise. The PMI Services showed an unexpected gain, coming out at 56.6 when a fall to 54.5 had been forecast. In France, it was out at a stunning 56.3 and in Germany at 55.7. This shows strong resilience of the services sector. This matters a lot from a macroeconomic viewpoint because the services account for 73 % of the eurozone economy. On the downside, the EZ manufacturing sector is still lagging with a print at 45.5. Overall, this indicates a quarterly GDP growth of about 0.5 % after 0.3 % in Q1. The EZ economy is clearly doing well. There is still no recession in sight. US asks South Korea not to boost memory chip sales to China if Micron banned According to the FT, the US asked major South Korean memory chip manufacturers Samsung and SK Hynix to hold back on boosting sales to China if Bejing were to ban US memory chip maker Micron from selling its products there. China has mobilized a national security review of Micron, with no announcement yet of its results. Bill Gross bets on US regional banks Bill Gross, the former CIO of PIMCO, says that he is bullish on some segments of the US regional banks after the banking crisis citing that many smaller banks have historically delivered 10% return on equity and are now trading at 60% of tangible book value. COT on HG Copper explains some of the current (weak) price action According to the latest Commitments of Traders report covering the week to April 18, the copper long jumped 230% to 19.8k lots in response to the failed, as it turned out, breakout that occurred during the reporting week. It highlights a market where traders are worried about missing the upside once it materializes, but also how failure turns to immediate long liquidation and with that fresh price weakness as seen last Thursday and especially Friday. For now, the metal remains rangebound having returned to the center of its current $3.8 to $4.2 trading range. However, with global visible exchange monitored stocks at the lowest seasonal level since 2008, the downside risks remain limited. S&P Global US PMI data stronger than expectations The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4, back to the expansion territory in April, from 49.2 in March and above the 49.0 expected. The S&P Global US Services PMI also came in stronger than the consensus estimate, bouncing to 53.7 in April, above 52.6 in March and beating the consensus 51.5. The composite measure was 53.5 in April, versus 52.3 in March and 51.2 expected. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, new orders jumped to the highest rate in 11 months and output prices rose at the fastest rate in seven months. The Biden administration is taking a more expansive approach in curbing US investments in Chinese tech industries Bloomberg reports that US President Biden is going to issue an executive order in the coming weeks to curb American businesses from investing in China’s semiconductors, AI, and quantum computing industries. The ban, according to Bloomberg, will be bigger than what the other media previously reported. In February 2023, Politico reported that the Biden administration was scaling back the scope of the contemplated restrictions to new investment in China’s semiconductors industry only. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Yellen took on a more hawkish tone saying that “even though these policies [against China] may have economic impacts, they’re driven by straightforward national security considerations, and we will not compromise on these concerns even when they make those tradeoffs with our economic interests”. BOJ Ueda reiterates the continuation of YCC ahead of his first policy meeting BOJ Governor Ueda reiterated on Monday his commitment to keep the loose monetary policy for now and hinted that there would be no change to the YCC policy this Friday when the central bank concludes two-day monetary policy meeting under his reign. Many investors, as suggested in various surveys, are expecting no change to policies, including the yield curve control (YCC) policy at this meeting. Investors are expecting some sort of changes to the YCC policy later this year but are divided in the forms of policy changes ranging from widening the current +/- 50bps band, shortening the tenor of the Japanese Government bond (JGB) yield that is targeted from currently 10-year to the 5-year or even the 2-year JGB, or even completely abolishing it. A change to the YCC policy is likely to make the Yen stronger. Chile announces plans to gain controlling stake in future lithium projects Chile’s president Boric in a television address last week said he would create a National Lithium Company that would participate in the whole production cycle. While the proposal fell short of a full nationalisation in the world’s second largest producer of the metal essential in electric batteries, to boost its economy and protect its environment, it nevertheless sent shares of major Chilean Lithium companies tumbling on Friday with Chilean Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM) falling 18.6% and Albemarle (ALB) down 10% both hitting fresh one-year lows. Chile holds the world’s largest Lithium and copper reserves, and the announcement is likely to make it more challenging and harder to invest in Chile at a time when demand for green transformation metals look set to accelerate in the coming years. What are we watching next? US debt ceiling concerns intensifying in the background Lower than expected incoming tax revenues are raising concerns that the debt ceiling issue could come to a head as early as early June rather than in late July or August as originally anticipated. The political dysfunction in US Congress, particularly House Republicans that are sending all of the wrong signals on the willingness to accept default if their demands aren’t met. Prices for Credit Default Swaps CDS to insure against US treasury default for the next 1-year rose to a record level of 130 basis points last week, with 24 basis points of that rise coming on Friday alone. Four-week T-bill yields, which mature before the timing of a feared US default scenario, have dropped to 3.25% even as the Fed’s policy rate band is 4-75-5.00% Earnings to watch The most important week during the earnings season is upon investors starting already today with Coca-Cola reporting Q1 earnings before the open. Analysts expect Coca-Cola to report Q1 revenue growth of 3% y/y and EPS of $0.65 up 1% y/y. First Republic Bank was in focus during the short-lived banking crisis and therefore there will be a lot of focus on its Q1 earnings today with analysts expressing gloomy estimates with net revenue and earnings severely down in the coming quarters. Later during the week, the key earnings are from the US technology majors such as Alphabet (Tue), Microsoft (Tue), Meta (Wed), and Amazon (Thu). Monday: Coca-Cola, Whirlpool, Cadence, First Republic Bank Tuesday: UPS, Danaher, PepsiCo, General Motors, Halliburton, Biogen, McDonald’s ADM, 3M, PulteGroup, GE, NextEra Energy, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Alphabet, Microsoft, Texas Instruments, Illumina Wednesday: Boeing, Meta, eBay, ServiceNow, Teradyne, Thursday: Linde, Caterpillar, Valero Energy, Honeywell, AbbVie, Merck, Newmont, Rockwell Automation, Mastercard, Eli Lilly, Mondelez, VeriSign, L3Harris Technologies, Intel, First Solar, Gilead Sciences, Amazon, Amgen Friday: Exxon Mobil, Colgate-Palmolive, Chevron Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0800 – Germany Apr. IFO Business Climate 1230 – US Mar. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 1430 – US Apr. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Source: Global Market Quick Take: Europe – April 24, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Alibaba beat analyst consensus on the top and bottom lines. Management mostly discussed their intent to spin-off various subsidiaries. Revenue rose just 2% YoY in US Dollar terms but beat analyst consensus. BABA stock rose 1.2% in Thursday’s premarket session. Alibaba (BABA) easily beat Wall Street’s pessimistic forecast for the fiscal fourth quarter (FQ4) early Thursday. The Chinese online retail conglomerate and cloud provider posted $1.56 in adjusted earnings per average diluted share compared with a general forecast of $1.35. Revenue of $30.32 billion beat analyst consensus by $410 million but rose just 2% YoY. BABA stock rose 1.2% to $91.70 in Thursday’s premarket session, while upstart competitor JD.com (JD) fell an equal amount. Alibaba stock news: Unlocking shareholder value through spin-offs, IPOs While the results were decent in the quarter, management said its main focus was unlocking shareholder value. “We are taking concrete steps towards unlocking value from our businesses and are pleased to announce that our board has approved a full spin-off of the Cloud Intelligence Group via a stock dividend distribution to shareholders, with intention for it to become an independent publicly listed company,” said CEO Daniel Zhang in a statement. “We have established a capital management committee at the Alibaba board level to undertake a comprehensive capital management plan to enhance shareholder value,” said CFO Toby Xu. “We are delighted to share that our board has approved the process to start external financing for Alibaba International Digital Commerce Business Group; exploration of IPO for Cainiao Smart Logistics Group; and execution of IPO for Freshippo.” Net income of $3.2 billion was robust “primarily due to net gains arising from increases in the market prices of our equity investments in publicly-traded companies.” Adjusted earnings per share rose 35% YoY. The international retail segment, which houses such flagship brands as Lazada, AliExpress, Trendyol and Daraz, saw order volume rise 15% YoY. Orders for the domestic Chinese services segment rose 20% YoY. Alibaba stock forecast BABA stock has definitely been on a shy uptrend of late. After bottoming out near $80 in the early part of May, the stock began rising as the earnings date got closer. Now that it has been reported, traders will watch intently on where BABA leans next. Breaking through the $103 to $105.32 resistance range is the primary concern. This region pushed BABA stock back down in March and April, and bulls are looking to break it once again on their march back up to the $120 price point. That last level has served as the divider between neutral and bullish outlooks over the past year. BABA daily chart

Nike has entered into an agreement with the Chinese company AntChain to use its solutions based on blockchain. They are to be used to track shoes (and their users) that Nike equips with chips embedded in the sole For some time, however, some varieties of Nike shoes have been distinguished by chips in the sole, the purpose of which is to trace the origin of the shoes in order to be able to recognize and eliminate counterfeits at any time. It does not stop there.     Last Sunday, June 18, Nike announced a partnership with AntChain, a company belonging to the Alibaba group. The partnership is to use blockchain-based AntChain solutions to track Nike shoes. What's more, the chips in the soles are also supposed to contain dynamically encrypted NFC chips, so that tracking can be done remotely.   Interestingly, Nike has its own blockchain solutions, but concentrates their use in other areas. AntChain, on the other hand, offers its blockchain in a spine-chilling formula called Traceability as a Service (TaaS). Given the state of privacy protection in the Middle Kingdom, it is not surprising that this company can be considered an expert in the field of tracking.   Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair hit the key technical resistance located at the level of $1,930 after a 19% rally from the last swing low. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $1,777. The market conditions are extremely overbought on the H4 time frame chart, so please keep an eye on this level as the pull-back can haapen any time now.

Chinese deflation The Chinese inflation came in unexpectedly soft in June. Consumer prices fell 0.2% m-o-m, as the decline in producer prices accelerated more than expected to 5.4% y-o-y. The Chinese efforts to boost economy and inflation are not working. That's maybe why the Chinese regulators chose to ease pressure on their tech giants. Last Friday, the regulators finally ended a yearlong inspection of Alibaba's Ant Group and said that the tech industry will see 'normalized supervision'. Alibaba shares jumped 8% in New York last Friday but would that be enough to bring investor confidence back is not sure yet. The morose Chinese inflation limited appetite in oil this morning in Asia, but the price of a barrel of crude rallied past the $73pb to the 100-DMA last Friday, as the fresh round of production cuts from Ryad and Moscow slowly but surely brought the oil bulls back to the battlefield as long-term supply worries started weighing on mood in the bears' camp. Trend and momentum indicators are now comfortably bullish, and hint that the rally could extend. The next natural target for the oil bulls is the 200-DMA, which stands near the $77pb level.  

Is China on path for longer economic stagnation?  By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank   Released yesterday, the latest CPI data showed that the headline inflation in the US ticked higher from 3 to 3.2%. That was slightly lower than the 3.3% penciled in by analysts, core inflation eased to 4.7% in July from 4.8% expected by analysts and printed a month earlier.   But the rising energy and crop prices threaten to heat things up in the coming months and inflation's downward trajectory could rapidly be spoiled. That's certainly why an increasing number of investors and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Mary Daly warned that this was 'not a data point that says victory is ours'.   And indeed, looking into details, the fact that the 20% fall in gasoline prices is what explains the decline in headline number is concerning. The barrel of US crude bounced lower yesterday after a 27% rally since the end of June, and the latest OPEC data indicated that we would see a sharp supply deficit of more than 2mbpd this quarter as Saudi cuts output to push prices higher. And this gap could further widen as global demand continues growing and shift to alternative energy sources is nowhere fast enough to reverse that upside pressure.   On the other hand, we also know that the rising energy prices fuel inflation expectations and further rate hikes expectations around the world. And that means that oil bears are certainly waiting in ambush to start trading the recession narrative and sell the top. The $85pb could be the level that could trigger that downside correction despite the evidence of tightening supply and increasing gap between rising demand and falling supply.   Today, eyes will be on the July PPI figures before the weekly closing bell, where core PPI is seen further easing, but headline PPI may have ticked higher to 0.7% on monthly basis, probably on higher energy, crop and food prices.     In the market  Yesterday's slightly softer-than-expected inflation numbers and the initial jobless claims which printed almost 250K new applications last week - the highest in a month - sent the probability of a September pause to above 90%, though the US 2-year yield advanced past the 4.85% level, and the longer-terms yields rose with a weak 30-year bond action, which saw the highest yield since 2011.   Major stock indices stagnated. The S&P500 was up by only 0.03% yesterday while Nasdaq 100 closed 0.18% higher, as Walt Disney rallied as much as 5% even though Disney+ missed subscription estimates and said that it will increase the price of the streaming service. Disney is considering a crackdown on password sharing, which, combined with higher prices could lead to a Netflix-like profit jump further down the road.     In the FX  The USD index consolidates above the 50 and 100-DMAs and just below a long-term ascending channel base. The EURUSD sees support at the 50-DMA, near the 1.0960 level, and could benefit from further weakness in the US dollar to attempt another rise above the 1.10 mark.   European nat gas futures fell 7% yesterday after a 28% spiked on Wednesday on concerns that strikes at major export facilities in Australia could lead to a 10% decline in global LNG exports. Yet, the European inventories are about 88% full on average and the industrial demand remains weak due to tightening financial conditions imposed by the European Central Bank (ECB) hikes. Therefore this week's massive move seems to be mostly overdone, and we shall see some more downside correction.     Chinese property market is boiling  The property crisis in China is being fueled by a potential default of Country Garden, which is one of the biggest property companies in China and which recently announced that it may have lost up to $7.6bn in the first half of the year as home sales slumped and the government stimulus measures didn't bring buyers back to the market. Equities in China slumped further today, as property crisis is not benign. In fact, China's local governments have plenty of debt, and their major source of income is... land and property sales. Consequently, the property crisis explodes local governments' debt to income ratios- And the debt burden prevents China from rolling out stimulus measures that they would've otherwise, because the government doesn't want to further blast the debt levels.   Shattered investor and consumer confidence, shrinking demographics, property crisis and deflation hints that the Chinese economy could be on path for a longer period of economic stagnation. We could therefore see rapid pullback in investor optimism regarding stimulus measures and their effectiveness. Hang Seng's tech index fell to the lowest levels in two weeks yesterday, as all members fell except for Alibaba which jumped after beating revenue estimates last quarter.   

Implications for China's economy and investors' perspectives China aims to foster a virtuous circle of economic growth through technology innovation, technology application, business model innovation, productivity enhancement, economic growth, and further investment in technology. In a globalised world, this circle could be sustained even if certain critical technologies were lacking. However, in the fragmentation game that increasingly dominates the world’s order, falling behind in technology innovation could disrupt the virtuous circle and result in declining productivity, ultimately hindering economic development. Investors take this risk into account when considering investments in China, along with factors like the slower-than-expected economic recovery and various constraints. These constraints include a highly leveraged economy, particularly among local governments and the property sector, which somewhat restricts the Chinese authorities' ability to implement stimulus measures without potentially causing future financial turmoil. The extent of the impact on productivity in the Chinese internet sector, manufacturing sector and the broader economy, as well as how it will unfold, remains uncertain. Some investors positioning themselves for these changes are looking at companies capable of developing generative AI applications, manufacturing AI-related hardware, or producing AI-relevant microchips, semiconductor materials or equipment. Some Chinese companies actively sought after by investors include Baidu, 360 Security, Lenovo, Shanghai Boasight Software, Iflytek, Unisplendour, ZTE and Foxconn Industrial Internet, which are listed on the mainland and Hong Kong stock exchanges.[i] While major Chinese internet and technology companies are aware of the need to adapt their business models to potential disruptions, their generative AI products and new applications have yet to demonstrate promising prospects and significant impacts on their revenues. Baidu has shown some progress with its early focus on AI and the launch of ERNIE, an AI model capable of search, dialogue and content generation. Xiaomi continues to pursue an AI and Internet of Things development path, utilising deep learning to connect mobile and IoT devices. Tencent has developed its own AI models, including HunYuan and WeLM, facilitating text generation, dialogue, translation and gaming. Alibaba has created the Multi-Modality to Multi-Modality Multitask Mega-transformer (M6) model, while JD.COM has come up with pre-trained language models for natural language understanding and generation. Bytedance contributes a multilingual machine translation model, and NetEase offers the YuYan language model. These efforts are commendable but yet to have meaningful impact on their business models and much more needs to be done. Some of these stocks which trade at reasonable valuations based on their existing businesses may present interesting investment opportunities, but investors should take into consideration that high growth could be something of the past for these companies. As technology innovation and productivity growth hold the key to success, companies that advance in intelligent manufacturing which employs generative AI may be the next “new-new thing” to watch in China in the coming years. Investors can potentially benefit from following developments in this area. Concluding remarks China's drive towards a virtuous circle of economic growth, fuelled by technology innovation and productivity enhancement, is of utmost importance. Investors evaluating China should acknowledge the challenges posed by generative AI, while also recognising potential investment prospects in companies poised to leverage these transformative changes.

In the ever-evolving landscape of global finance, each day brings its own set of surprises and challenges. From the commanding rise of tech giants to the dramatic fall of the dollar against the yuan, and the intriguing insights into Wall Street's AI revolution, the financial world is in constant motion. Join us as we unravel the recent events that have left an indelible mark on the financial markets. Tech Giants' Green Day Tech giants have once again demonstrated their prowess by leading a remarkable "green day" in the market. The likes of Apple, Amazon, and Tesla have shown that their influence extends far beyond the confines of the digital realm. Their ability to sway the financial tide reflects the transformative power of technology in today's economy. Dollar's Dip Against Yuan In a surprising turn of events, the dollar experienced its most significant drop in months against the yuan. This shift has far-reaching implications for international trade and currency markets. Investors are closely monitoring this trend as it may signal changes in global economic dynamics. Disney and Charter Resolve Dispute Disney and Charter Communications recently settled a long-standing dispute, a development that has brought relief to millions of households. The resolution paves the way for the return of ESPN and ABC to 15 million households, underscoring the significance of healthy negotiations in the media industry. Alibaba's New CEO Charts a Course Alibaba, one of the world's largest e-commerce and technology conglomerates, welcomed a new CEO who promptly outlined strategic priorities. The decisions made by this industry giant have the potential to influence not only the company's future but also the broader tech landscape Wall Street's AI Craze Wall Street has been abuzz with the AI craze in recent years, but is it reaching its peak? Investment guru Jim Cramer has issued a warning, suggesting that the excitement surrounding artificial intelligence in finance may be nearing its zenith. This assessment invites us to contemplate the future of finance and technology.   The financial world is a dynamic and ever-shifting ecosystem where tech giants flex their muscles, currencies dance to their own tunes, and Wall Street continually seeks new frontiers. As we navigate the intricacies of this realm, one thing remains certain: the financial markets will continue to be a source of fascination and opportunity for those who dare to tread its waters. Stay tuned for more updates on the captivating world of finance.