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The Swing Overview – Week 25

There was a rather quiet week in which the major world stock indices shook off previous losses and have been slowly rising since Monday. However, this is probably only a temporary correction of the current bearish trend.  The CNB Bank Board met for the last time in its old composition and raised the interest rate to 7%, the highest level since 1999. However, the koruna barely reacted to this increase. The reason is that the main risks are still in place and fear of a recession keeps the markets in a risk-off sentiment that benefits the US dollar.


Macroeconomic data

We had a bit of a quiet week when it comes to macroeconomic data in the US. Industrial production data was reported, which grew by 0.2% month-on-month in May, which is less than the growth seen in April, when production grew by 1.4%. While the growth is slower than expected, it is still growth, which is a positive thing.

 

In terms of labor market data, the number of jobless claims held s

Russian Rouble "Strengthened By Diplomacy"? RTS Index Increases

Russian Rouble "Strengthened By Diplomacy"? RTS Index Increases

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.02.2022 13:00
The Russian market is trying to grow this morning. The RTS index has already added 5.5%, while the ruble has taken away 1.7% from the dollar and 1.3% from the euro. The growth impulse was formed yesterday when Foreign Minister Lavrov called for a search for diplomatic ways out of the situation. Later, comments by Zelensky, who in an address to the nation insisted on a diplomatic solution, and a speech by Shoigu, who ordered part of the troops to return to locations of permanent de-escalation, added positives. So far, these are only signals of readiness to discuss and look for ways to resolve it, but the incident is far from over: there are too many “buts” at all levels. If we consider the movement of currencies and stocks from the position that the market takes everything into account, we cannot fail to note positive signals. The EURRUB pair returned to the position from which it rushed upwards on Friday. Fixation below 85 will send a signal of market confidence in a trend reversal. In this case, a fast road to area 84 will be open for the pair. If politicians really plan to move forward on issues that have hung over the ruble like a sword of Damocles for the last 8 years, it will be possible to talk about the potential for the euro to roll back to the level of 80 rubles before the end of the first quarter. For the dollar, the significant point is the mark of 73.50. Fixing below this level will mark the renewal of the lows of the exchange rate for the entire last stage of tension and will also return the Russian currency to the long-term growth trend. In this case, a move to the 70 area over the next six weeks could be a viable prospect. However, even these relatively short-term forecasts look too shaky since the situation can turn 180 degrees at any second.
Inflation Is Not The Only Consequence Of The Russian Invasion

Beloved Emini S&P 500, Emini Dow Jones and Nasdaq Analysed

Jason Sen Jason Sen 15.02.2022 13:16
Emini S&P MARCH could be forming the right shoulder of a huge head & shoulders pattern now, with shorts at strong resistance again at 4580/90 the perfect trade last week. Shorts at resistance at 4500/10 worked perfectly on Friday as we hit 4445/35 & broke below here (not surprisingly) . THE WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW HERE IS MORE NEGATIVE FOR NEXT WEEK IF WE CONTINUE TO HOLD BELOW. Nasdaq MARCH outlook negative with a high for the day exactly at resistance at 14380/410 yesterday. Emini Dow Jones MARCH volatile with no clear trend or pattern. We could be building a head & shoulders reversal pattern but we are a long way off completion. Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P holding below 4445/35 (a high for the day 7 points below here yesterday) is an obvious sell signal targeting 4405/00 & support at 4360/50. (A LOW FOR THE DAY EXACTLY HERE YESTERDAY). A break lower targets 4325/20 then 4270/65. Further losses test incredibly important support at 4195/4185. I still think gains are likely to be limited with resistance again at 4435/45 but a move above 4450 can target 4475/80, perhaps as far as resistance at 4500/10. Shorts need stops above 4520. Obviously we still have strong resistance again at 4580/90 (but I doubt we see this level again for a very long time). Shorts need stops above 4610. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 4640/50. Nasdaq continues to trend lower so I will expect that gains are likely to be limited with minor resistance at 14380/410 (a high for the day exactly here yesterday) & again at 14500/530. A sell opportunity at 14720/750. Shorts need stops above 14850. A break below 14180/160 targets 13900/850 before a retest of the January low at 13720/700. On a break below 13650 we could go quite quickly to 13400/350 & strong support at 13000/12900 Emini Dow Jones saw a high for the day exactly at 34750/700 level. We headed lower to 34500/450 with a low for the day at the next target of 34300/250. Watch these levels again today. A break lower however targets support at 34000/33950. A break lower however targets 33650/600. Minor resistance at 34950/35000 with strong resistance at 35350/400. Shorts need stops above 35500. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
Heading To Europe: Dax 40, FTSE And EuroStoxx 50 In Video Analysis

Heading To Europe: Dax 40, FTSE And EuroStoxx 50 In Video Analysis

Jason Sen Jason Sen 15.02.2022 12:39
Dax 40 extremely volatile (which I still think is part of the process of building a bear trend) & breaking to the downside at last EuroStoxx 50 MARCH breaks important support at 4060/50 for a longer term sell signal. FTSE 100 MARCH We wrote: Severely overbought & I feel we can go lower but there is no sell signal whatsoever. Initially prices tumbled to first support at 7530/10 with a break lower yesterday to the next target of 7460/50 & well on the way to 7405/7395. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Dax trying to break below important support again at 15050/15000 for a serious sell signal for this week. We can quickly go to 14800 (A LOW FOR THE DAY YESTERDAY AT 14831). A break below here is a more serious sell signal initially targeting 14680/650, eventually as far as 14350/300. Bulls now need prices above 15250 to regain control. (So shorts need stops above here). We can then target 15360/390. If we continue higher look for 15500/550. EuroStoxx holding below 4060/50 should be seen as a very serious sell signal - a move straight to 3900/3890 is likely. I would be concerned about a crash - A break below 3865 should trigger further significant losses. Bulls need prices back above 4100 to regain control. We can then target 4125/30. Expect strong resistance at 4170/80. Shorts need stops above 4190. FTSE now has strong resistance at 7510/30, which if tested & holds again today re-targets 7460/50 then 7405/7395. Expect strong support at 7350/40. Shorts at 7510/30. Stop above 75540. A break higher however can target 7570/80 before a retest of 7620/30. Further gains target 7660/70, perhaps as far as 7740/60. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
Will Oil (BRENT) Call For A Oxygen Cylinder? It Climbed Really High...

Will Oil (BRENT) Call For A Oxygen Cylinder? It Climbed Really High...

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.02.2022 15:22
Events in recent weeks have brought back interest in assets that have benefited from tensions in previous decades, with gold rising as insurance against currency destabilisation and oil rising on fears of surging demand and shortages of supply if sanctions constrain supplies from Russia. Interestingly, the West is trying to balance sanctions restrictions on oil as more encouraging comments come out of the talks with Iran. In our view, oil is very expensive, climbing to current heights faster than the economy can afford it. This rise is caused by geopolitical tensions around Russia, which acts as the world's largest energy exporter by a wide margin. Fears about the stability of future supply have so far outweighed any negatives, but it is still prudent to zero in on geopolitical influences over the medium to long term. And with that in mind, the oil price looks unsustainably high, vulnerable to a corrective pullback once the dust of military hardware settles. About 12 years ago, we saw a similar picture when oil prices recovered quickly. And then, the result was another round of global economic weakness, which also knocked down demand for commodities and forced regulators to postpone policy normalisation steps. Will it be like that now? Quite possibly, and then in the second half of the year, oil could turn sharply to correction and cause another shock for the economy. In recent weeks, significant factors are potentially capping price rises with increased drilling activity. Also, Russia will ramp up production as most of the wells are in areas with a harsh climate. Looking locally, we can see how quickly any declines in oil over the last three months are being bought out. In such an environment, oil could soon find itself in short squeeze territory, with short positions being forced to close due to rising prices. This mirrors what we saw in April 2020. It is difficult to predict the peak price level in such an environment. It would be an ideal market picture if the short squeeze occurred at the end of April on another major expiry, paying homage to events two years earlier. And ideally, if we saw a price return to the $112 area where the bear market in oil started in July 2014. But this is an idealised picture. The reality is likely to be less mathematically accurate, as so much is now tied to the actions and comments of policymakers.
Sandbox price set for breakout as bulls target some low-hanging fruit

Sandbox price set for breakout as bulls target some low-hanging fruit

FXStreet News FXStreet News 15.02.2022 16:09
Since December, sandbox has been trying to break the downtrend. As bulls attempt to break through, expect some profits to be booked as some targets lie nearby. Once above $4.72, expect $5.00 and $6.00 to be the following targets in the relief rally. Sandbox (SAND) price action is surfing on a wave of relief this morning as tensions between Russia, and the West start to ease on positive news. With that, investors have been falling over each other to get back into cryptocurrencies, and Sandbox price is set to break the longer-term red descending trendline, and downtrend since December last year. Some low-hanging fruit will be targeted in the breakthrough and could provide enough incentive for bulls to book partial profits and go for the ultimate goal of $6.00, holding 47% of gains. Sandbox bulls are in for 47% gains in the relief rally Sandbox price action is again hammering on the red descending trend line that originates from December last year and has been dictating the downtrend ever since. The renewed push comes from tailwinds that emerged overnight on some positive news around de-escalation in the situation between Russia and Ukraine. As the scene is set for a solid relief rally, expect to see some excellent (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/sandbox-tests-support-at-425-before-sand-test-prior-all-time-highs-202202112001) returns, beginning with some nice profits nearby as a good start. SAND bulls will have their eyes on $4.72 with the 55-day Simple Moving Average and an overall (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-dogecoin-sandbox-and-cardano-european-wrap-10-february-video-202202101133) pivotal level falling in line around the same area. Although this level is not far from the red descending trendline, it will still return around 16% of gains intraday. Bulls will have a good incentive to book profits midway but stay in the trade with more considerable profits gained when the price rises towards $5.00 and $6.00 – the next targets in this week’s relief rally. The trade has an excellent risk-return ratio and is the most viable (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/sandbox-price-bound-for-another-30-gains-as-sand-finds-support-202202101005) as we advance. SAND/USD daily chart Should German chancellor Scholz come out with some negative comments and ramp up the rhetoric of full-scale escalation of the tensions, expect (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/shiba-inu-to-enter-the-metaverse-and-challenge-axie-infinity-sandbox-and-decentraland-202202091718) a knee jerk reaction with a firm rejection or false break of the red descending trend line, trapping bulls and pushing them out of their positions as SAND price action collapses back towards $3.50. From there, another leg lower could follow towards $3.00, with the 200-day SMA coming in at around $2.85 and playing its part as a supportive element in the belief that a recovery is still possible. If the 200-day SMA is no match for the downward pressure, expect a break and further push towards $2.50 or $2.00.
Oil influences FTSE 100 as it reaches 7611 GBP, USDJPY chasing 115.00

WTI pulls back sharply from Monday’s multi-year highs near $96.00, back to the $91.00s as geopolitical risk premia eases

FXStreet News FXStreet News 15.02.2022 16:09
WTI has pulled back sharply on Tuesday from Monday’s multi-year highs near $96.00 and is back in the $91.00s. Fears of an imminent Russian invasion into Ukraine have eased as Russia withdraws some troops, weighing on oil prices. Oil prices have pulled back sharply from Monday’s multi-year highs, with front-month WTI futures now trading back to the south of the $92.00 level, down about $3.0 per day and more than $4.0 below Monday’s multi-year highs near $96.00. Press reports about a withdrawal of troops on the Ukrainian border to their bases has spurred a rebound in risk appetite and reduction in demand for safe havens on Tuesday. Such flows could have further legs in wake of remarks from Russian President Vladimir Putin who just said that a decision on partial troop withdrawal had been taken. For oil, tentative signs of de-escalation have triggered profit-taking as geopolitical risk premia is reduced somewhat, though Western nations and NATO remain highly concerned that Russia maintains the option for a near-term attack. One theme to watch is that Russian President Vladimir Putin might imminently recognise the independence of the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics (LPR and DPR), both breakaway regions of Ukraine located in the East. Western officials have criticised Russia’s State Duma for voting in favour of the recognition, which would break the Minsk Agreement designed to implement a ceasefire in the Ukraine civil war. Geopolitical strategists fear that Russia might create a false pretext for military action against Ukraine by rekindling violence in the East, with a recognition of LPR and DPR independence a potential step in this direction. For now, WTI traders will remain on tenterhooks and trading conditions will remain choppy/headline-driven. Near-term WTI bears will likely eye an imminent test of an uptrend that has been supporting the price action for the whole of 2022 thus far in the $90.00s. A break below this could see oil prices swiftly move back under $90.00 and hit support in the form of last week’s lows in the mid-$88.00s. Aside from Eastern European geopolitics, oil traders will also be keeping an eye on upcoming private weekly US oil inventory data at 2130GMT, as well as indirect US/Iran nuclear negotiations, which continue to rumble on in the background.
Should Someone Tell The Price Of Gold It's Time To Review Its Incoming "Oponents"?

Should Someone Tell The Price Of Gold It's Time To Review Its Incoming "Oponents"?

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 15.02.2022 16:00
  Gold continues to benefit from the market turmoil and has apparently forgotten about medium-term problems. Meanwhile, the rising USD and a hawkish Fed await confrontation. With financial markets whipsawing after every Russia-Ukraine headline, volatility has risen materially in recent days. With whispers of a Russian invasion on Feb. 16 (which I doubt will be realized), the game of hot potato has uplifted the precious metals market. However, as I noted on Feb. 14, while the developments are short-term bullish, the PMs’ medium-term fundamentals continue to decelerate. For example, while the general stock market remains concerned about a Russian invasion, U.S. Treasury yields rallied on Feb. 14. With risk-off sentiment often born in the bond market, the safety trade benefiting the PMs didn’t materialize in U.S. Treasuries. As a result, bond traders aren’t demonstrating the same level of fear. Please see below: Source: Investing.com Furthermore, while the potential conflict garners all of the attention, the fundamental issues that upended the PMs in 2021 remain unresolved. For example, with inflation surging, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Feb. 14 that “the last four [Consumer Price Index] reports taken in tandem have indicated that inflation is broadening and possibly accelerating in the U.S. economy.” “The inflation that we’re seeing is very bad for low- and moderate-income households,” he said. “People are unhappy, consumer confidence is declining. This is not a good situation. We have to reassure people that we’re going to defend our inflation target and we’re going to get back to 2%.” As a result, Bullard wants a 50 basis point rate hike in March, and four rate hikes by July. Please see below: Source: CNBC Likewise, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is much less hawkish than Bullard, she also supports a rate hike in March. Source: CNBC As a result, while the PMs can hide behind the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the short term, their medium-term fundamental outlooks are profoundly bearish. As mentioned, Bullard highlighted inflation’s impact on consumer confidence, and for a good reason. With the University of Michigan releasing its Consumer Sentiment Index on Feb. 11, the report revealed that Americans’ optimism sank to “its worst level in a decade, falling a stunning 8.2% from last month and 19.7% from last February.” Chief Economist, Richard Curtin said: “The recent declines have been driven by weakening personal financial prospects, largely due to rising inflation, less confidence in the government's economic policies, and the least favorable long term economic outlook in a decade.” “The impact of higher inflation on personal finances was spontaneously cited by one-third of all consumers, with nearly half of all consumers expecting declines in their inflation adjusted incomes during the year ahead.” Please see below: To that point, I’ve highlighted on numerous occasions that U.S. President Joe Biden’s re-election prospects often move inversely to inflation. With the dynamic still on full display, immediate action is needed to maintain his political survival. Please see below: To explain, the light blue line above tracks the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change in inflation, while the dark blue line above tracks Biden’s approval rating. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the U.S. President remains in a highly perilous position. Moreover, with U.S. midterm elections scheduled for Nov. 8, the Democrats can’t wait nine to 12 months for inflation to calm down. As a result, there is a lot at stake politically in the coming months. As further evidence, as inflation reduces real incomes and depresses consumer confidence, the Misery Index also hovers near crisis levels. Please see below: To explain, the blue line above tracks the Misery Index. For context, the index is calculated by subtracting the unemployment rate from the YoY percentage change in the headline CPI. In a nutshell, when inflation outperforms the unemployment rate (the blue line rises), it creates a stagflationary environment in America. To that point, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the Misery Index is approaching a level that coincided with the global financial crisis (GFC). As a result, reversing the trend is essential to avoid a U.S. recession. As such, with inflation still problematic and the writing largely on the wall, the market-implied probability of seven rate hikes by the Fed in 2022 is nearly 93% (as of Feb. 10). Please see below: Ironically, while consumers and the bond market fret over inflation, U.S. economic growth remains resilient. While I’ve been warning for months that a bullish U.S. economy is bearish for the PMs, continued strength should turn hawkish expectations into hawkish realities. To that point, the chart above shows that futures traders expect the U.S. Federal Funds Rate to hit 1.75% in 2022 (versus 0.08% now). However, Michael Darda, Chief Economist at MKM Partners, expects the Fed’s overnight lending rate to hit 3.5% before it’s all said and done. “We have this booming economy with high inflation and a rapid recovery in the labor market – much different relative to the last cycle,” he said. “The Fed is behind the curve this time. They are going to have to do more.”  Singing a similar tune, John Thorndike, co-head of asset allocation at GMO, told clients that “inflation is now here, [but] the narrative is that inflation goes away and markets tend to struggle with change. It is more likely than not that real yields and policy rates need to move above inflation during this cycle.” The bottom line? While the Russia-Ukraine drama distracts the PMs from the fundamental realities that confront them over the medium term, their outlooks remain profoundly bearish. Moreover, while I’ve noted on numerous occasions that the algorithms will enhance momentum in either direction, their influence wanes materially as time passes. As such, while headline risk is material in the short-term, history shows that technicals and fundamentals reign supreme over longer time horizons. Thus, while the recent flare-up is an unfortunate event that hurts our short position, the medium-term developments that led to our bearish outlook continue to strengthen. In conclusion, the PMs rallied on Feb. 14, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the primary driver moving the financial markets. However, while the PMs will ride the wave as far as it takes them, they ignored that the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields also rallied. Moreover, with Fed officials ramping up the hawkish rhetoric, the PMs' fundamental outlook is more bearish now than it was in 2021 (if we exclude the Russia-Ukraine implications). As a result, while the timeline may have been delayed, lower lows should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks in the coming months. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
COT Currency Speculator Sentiment rising for Euro & British Pound Sterling

Mean Reversion

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 15.02.2022 16:32
S&P 500 refused further downside yesterday, and while credit markets didn‘t move much, rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight. For now, the war drums took the limelight away, but don‘t count on gold, silver or oil correcting significantly and lastingly. Cryptos are supporting the return of risk-on as the touted war just isn‘t happening either today or tomorrow, and market participants are dialing back the panicky bets. That‘s why Treasuries and tech movements are so key these days – copper trading shows that we‘re in for paring back of the fire sales. I can‘t call it a full fledged stock market reversal, not yet. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Pause but more likely a rebound, is what comes next for S&P 500. Closing above the 200-day moving average is possible, but more is needed for a trend reversal in this correction. Credit Markets Credit markets moderated their pace of decline, and there‘s no risk-on posture apparent yet. We may be though nearing the point of credit market reprieve – as much as that‘s compatible with rate raising cycle. Gold, Silver and Miners Miners and gold are benefiting from the tensions, but they‘ll just as easily give up some of these gains next. What‘s important though, is the continued trend of making higher highs and higher lows. Crude Oil Crude oil looks also likely to lose some of the prior safe haven bid, but similarly to precious metals, the trend is higher, and corrections are more or less eagerly bought. Only should the Fed‘s actions harm the real economy, would oil prices meaningfully decline. Copper Copper is rebounding, but still remains trading in a not too hot fashion – the red metal is still trailing behind other commodities significantly. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos deciding to go higher, is a positive sign for stocks as well – the volume looks to be noticeable enough at the close later today to lend the upswing credibility. Summary S&P 500 bulls have the opportunity today, but the market remains as headline sensitive as everything else. Treasuries stabilizing or even moving higher while funds flow out of the dollar, that would be a bullish confirmation – and the same goes for precious metals not getting hammered, but finding a decent floor. The point is that war jitters calming down when Russia doesn‘t take the bait, makes assets to continue with their prior trends and focus, which is Fed and tightening. The bets on 50bp rate hike in Mar went down recently, and when they start rising again, it would make sense to deploy more capital – including into oil above $90, give or take a buck. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Fat or Flat: Gold Price in 2022

Fat or Flat: Gold Price in 2022

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 15.02.2022 17:10
  Analysts' 2022 forecasts for the gold market are not overwhelmingly enthusiastic – they see it flat. However, maybe the opposite should be expected. The LBMA has recently published its annual precious metals forecast survey. In general, the report is neutral about gold in 2022. On average, the analysts forecast gold prices to be broadly flat this year compared to the year. The average gold price in 2021 was $1,799, and it is expected to rise merely $3 to $1,802. How boring! However, as the table below shows, the forecasts for other precious metals are much more bearish, especially for palladium. The headline numbers are the averages of 34 analysts’ forecasts. The greatest bears see the average price of gold as low as $1.630, while the lowest low – at $1,500. Meanwhile, the biggest bulls expect the average price of gold to be $1,965, while the highest high is expected to be $2.280. The three most important drivers of precious metals prices’ performance this year are the Fed’s monetary policy, inflation, and equity market performance. This is a huge change compared to last year, when analysts considered geopolitical factors, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the pace of economic recovery to be much more important. I agree this time, of course, as I always believed that macroeconomic factors are more relevant to the long-term trend in the gold market than geopolitical drivers. Generally, the pick-up in inflation, which will keep real interest rates in negative territory, is seen as a tailwind for gold. Some analysts also expect the greenback to depreciate as the global economic recovery gathers steam, which would also be supportive of gold prices. Meanwhile, normalization of monetary policy is considered the greatest headwind for the yellow metal, as the Fed’s tightening cycle will raise the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, the markets have probably already priced the interest rate hikes in, so gold doesn’t have to suffer during the tightening cycle. Last time, the price of gold began to rise after the liftoff of the federal funds rate. The analysts surveyed by the LBMA also doubt the central banks’ ability to raise interest rates as high as needed to crush inflation. Instead, they are expected to stay behind the inflation curve. This is because the forecasted tightening cycle could be too difficult for the asset market and indebted economy to stomach, so it will be moderate and short-lived, just like last time.   Implications for Gold What does the LBMA annual forecast survey predicts for the yellow metal? The report is neutral, probably because gold remains under the influence of opposite forces, which makes forecasting really challenging this year. Gold has been recently in a sideways trend, so it’s somewhat natural to expect simply more of the same, i.e., the flat market. Actually, the pundits always forecast more of the same. For example, the previous edition of the survey was bullish, as 2020 was a great year for gold. Thus, the analysts’ 2021 average forecast for the price of gold was $1,973.8, almost $200 above the actual level. Hence, please take the survey with a pinch of salt. OK, the analysts don’t predict a literally flat market. The forecasts concerned averages, but some experts see the first half of the year as more bullish than the second, while others, vice versa. I’d rather include myself in the latter group, as my view is that the expectations of Fed tightening will continue to exert downward pressure on gold prices in the coming weeks. However, the hawkish expectations have probably gone a little too far. At some point this year, they will be adjusted, as it becomes clear that the Fed will be forced to reduce the pace of its tightening or even reverse its stance in order to calm the market and avoid the next economic crisis. Such an adjustment will be positive for gold prices, especially since it might occur amid still high inflation, but gold bulls should remember that there is still a long way to go before that happens. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Crypto Airdrop - Explanation - How Does It Work?

Ripple (XRP) Increases By 1.7%, AVAX By 12%, (BTC) Bitcoin Gains 4.4%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 16.02.2022 08:40
Cryptocurrencies rose on Tuesday on the back of strengthening stock indices and falling protective assets like gold, the yen, and treasuries. Bitcoin started its rise before the news about Russia and Ukraine hit the wires and sparked risk-on sentiments. Technical factors may have influenced the first cryptocurrency's strengthening, with BTC pushing back from its 50-day moving average, which has been acting as a support level for the past week. Russia has proposed allowing cryptocurrency mining in specific regions and imposing taxes on the conversion of crypto assets into fiat and is making progress in testing the digital rouble with the first interbank transfers. Bitcoin rose on Tuesday to its highest level in the past week (+4.4%), ending the day around $44,100, where it is trading on Wednesday morning. Ethereum jumped 7.3% on Tuesday, settling at $3100, while other leading altcoins from the top 10 also added: from 1.7% (XRP) to 12% (Avalanche). Overnight, crypto market capitalisation rose 2% to $1.98 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap estimates. Since early January, the market has not been consistently above the 2 trillion mark, and consolidation above could be an essential signal for bulls to move from observation to active buying. Since the end of January, there has been a notable uptrend support line that can be drawn through the local lows, which sets up optimism in the short term. The two largest cryptocurrencies, BTC and ETH, are attempting to consolidate above their 50-day averages, which previously signalled the end of a bearish phase. This was primarily made possible by optimism on Wall Street, where investors continue to buy out drawdowns. Altcoins showed outperformance, which led to a 0.3 percentage point decline in the Bitcoin Dominance Index to 40.4%. The Fear & Greed Index climbed from 46 to 51, moving into the Neutral from the Fear territory.
Speaking Of nVidia Stock, S&P500 (SPX), The Conflict In Eastern Europe And GBP State

Look At This XAUUSD Slide. Did GBPUSD Find Its Straight Line?

John Benjamin John Benjamin 16.02.2022 08:43
EURUSD bounces off support The US dollar retreats as the Fed’s half-point hike in March remains uncertain. The euro’s break above the daily resistance at 1.1480 boosted buyers’ confidence after a sell-off in January. It bounced off 1.1280 at the base of the recent bullish breakout. The support also is right next to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (1.1265) making it an area of congestion. A close above the intermediate resistance (1.1370) would attract more buying interest. Then an extension above 1.1490 may fuel a rally towards 1.1600. GBPUSD awaits breakout The sterling holds well as Britain’s wage growth beats expectations in December. The current rebound came under pressure in the supply zone around 1.3660 which was the origin of a sharp drop in late January. An overbought RSI led to some profit-taking but the pound has found support above 1.3480. The bears’ failed attempts to push lower indicates strong demand. A bullish close above 1.3640 would lift offers towards last month’s high at 1.3750. The daily support at 1.3370 is a key floor in keeping the rally intact. XAUUSD seeks support Gold drifts lower on signs of de-escalation in Ukraine. A break above last November’s high at 1875 may have put the precious metal back on track. However, the rally ran out of steam in the short term with the RSI shooting into the overbought territory. The price is taking a breather and buyers may see a pullback as an opportunity to stake in. A drop below 1852 may wash out weak hands and deepen the correction towards 1830. 1880 is now a fresh resistance and its breach could propel bullion to last June’s high at 1910.
(TRY) Turkish Lira Seems To Keep Stable, Plain Line

(TRY) Turkish Lira Seems To Keep Stable, Plain Line

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 16.02.2022 12:20
The Turkish lira has stabilised after the wild ride of December. Since the start of the year, the fluctuation of the lira formed a converging range with a centre of gravity at 13.50 in USDTRY and 15.40 in EURTRY. However, this lull is hardly a victory for the unorthodox monetary policy ideas being pursued by Turkey. Instead, market participants have turned their attention to developments in Russia and Ukraine, which has made Turkey, if not a haven, comparatively less dangerous for investors. Nevertheless, we see this lull as temporary, expecting the rate to move out of consolidation upwards, as Turkey's fight against inflation is weaker than necessary. Excessive monetary policy softness is further highlighted by monetary tightening worldwide, including in Europe, where central banks are moving to raise rates or roll back stimulus. The latest inflation estimates for January show consumer prices adding 50% and manufacturing prices almost doubling from the same month a year earlier. PPI is being pushed up by 70% devaluation of the national currency, plus a general rise in producer prices close to 10% in countries from China to the USA. Consumer prices have not yet fully absorbed the effects of the fall devaluation of the lira and promise to gain momentum in the coming months, continuing to undermine confidence in the national currency. An assessment of how inadequately soft Turkey's monetary policy is can be made by comparing the differential of inflation and the key rate. In Turkey, it is 35%, in Russia minus 1%, in Ukraine around 0% and in the UK 5%. Even in the US, where it is believed that the Fed has overlooked inflation and will now have to catch up with it through 7 0.25 point hikes this year, this differential is 7.25%, almost five times less than in Turkey. From all of this, there is a conclusion that the Turkish lira is heading upwards out of the consolidation range, i.e. a new round of currency decline is to be expected. However, this wave will likely not be as disastrous as it was in the final quarter of last year.
Stumbling Again

Stumbling Again

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 16.02.2022 15:53
S&P 500 rebound goes on reflexively, but stormy clouds are gathering – I‘m looking for the bears to reassert themselves over the next couple of days latest. The credit markets posture is far from raging risk-on even though select commodities are recovering (what else to expect in a secular commodities bull) and precious metals suffered a modest setback (not a reversal though). Crypto recovery is nodding towards the risk-on upturn that is though likely to get checked soon.It‘s great that tech was the driver of yesterday‘s S&P 500 upswing, but for how long would it keep leadership now that attention is shifting back towards inflation. Yesterday I wrote that: (...) rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight.So far the stock market advance hasn‘t met a brick wall, but value upswing has been sold into (unlike tech‘s). Energy stocks lost, but are likely to come back – and the next microrotation might not be powerful enough to carry S&P 500 higher. Anyway without a HYG upswing, stock bulls are facing stiff headwinds.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 rebounded on low volume but that wouldn‘t be an issue in a healthy bull market – the trouble is that this 2022 price action isn‘t very healthy.Credit MarketsHYG didn‘t trade on a strong note, and the rise in yields continues almost unabated. This is what I meant yesterday by saying that we may be though nearing the point of credit market reprieve – as much as that‘s compatible with rate raising cycle.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals suffered a temporary setback – they easily gave up some of the safe haven gains, which isn‘t surprising. The bulls though haven‘t lost control, and that‘s key.Crude OilCrude oil dip was bought, and there wasn‘t much bearish conviction to start with. The general uptrend is likely to continue, and $90 appears likely to hold over the next few days definitely.CopperCopper is now in for some backing and filling, but managed to catch up with other commodities a little yesterday. The red metal remains range bound, but making good bullish progress.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are paring back yesterday‘s advance, and unless the mid Feb lows give, they‘re likely to muddle through with a modest bullish bias till the attention shifts to the Fed again.SummaryS&P 500 bulls‘ opportunity seems slipping away with each 1D or 4H candle, and I‘m not counting on the credit markets to ride to stocks‘ rescue. The commodities bull though is likely to carry on with little interference – and so does the precious metals bull as the yield curve keeps compressing. Slowdown in economic growth with rampant inflation and the realization that the Fed tightening hasn‘t had the effect, is awaiting, and would usher in strong gold and silver gains.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Binance Coin set for pop above significant resistance as relief rally takes a short halt

Binance Coin set for pop above significant resistance as relief rally takes a short halt

FXStreet News FXStreet News 16.02.2022 16:18
Binance Coin takes a small step back this morning due to some profit-taking.BNB bulls hold all the cards as the relief rally is not over yet.Expect a pop above $444-$452 with a profit target set at $480 for the moment.Binance Coin (BNB) price action shot back above the red descending trend line yesterday with a massive relief rally that lifted market sentiment. With that, the downtrend looks to be broken, and an uptrend could be on the cards if bulls can take out the $444-$452 resistance barrier with a triple top formation, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the longer-term pivotal level all coincide in this region. Once through there, expect the next stage to be set for a move towards $480 with the 200-day SMA coming in, returning another 10%.Binance Coin set for the second phase in the recovery rallyBinance Coin is undergoing some profit-taking this morning after the solid relief rally from yesterday (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-decentraland-binance-dogecoin-asian-wrap-16-feb-video-202202160214) that has lifted market sentiment and saw some decent inflows into markets. On the way up, bulls hit some resistance from the double top from February 08 and January 21 and, in the process, made it a triple top resistance. This, together with the already known $452 and the 55-day SMA coming in at $445, makes it a substantial (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/binance-coin-must-break-out-above-this-level-before-bnb-can-retest-660-202202152150) barrier that will need to be broken to prove that the relief rally still has plenty of juice to go.Expect thus some profit-taking today, a little bit on the back foot with $419 as support to bounce off back to $445. Some more positive signals coming from the Russia-Ukraine developments could be the needed additional catalyst to push through this difficult barrier. The next target is set at $480, with the 200-day SMA falling in line with that considerable number, resulting in probably the same profit-taking pattern (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/dogecoin-and-shiba-inu-price-climbs-as-binance-smart-chain-whales-accumulate-meme-coins-202202151719) as BNB price action shows today.BNB/USD daily chartOverall, the US keeps claiming that the situation in Central-Europe remains precarious and could see an escalation (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-bitcoin-binance-coin-and-decentraland-european-wrap-11-february-202202111055) any time now. Once those headlines hit the wires, expect the whole cryptocurrency space to collapse and for there to be a massive pullback from investors, with BNB price falling back initially to $389. Depending on the severity of the attacks, another push lower towards $340 would be the logical outcome and result in BNB price shedding 22% of its value.
After A Large Amplitude GBPUSD Seems To Be Stable, But Maybe It Will Start Rising Again?

After A Large Amplitude GBPUSD Seems To Be Stable, But Maybe It Will Start Rising Again?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 17.02.2022 03:09
Today we’re looking at the GBPUSD as buyers continue to hold firm and now only face one level of resistance both they can get the new uptrend back on track. Fundamentally a few things remain on the radar. Russian/Ukrainian Situation, we’ve seen recently that fair ups are supporting the USD and any new escalations could drive the USD higher which would hurt the GBPUSD. T-note yields are another ongoing factor but yields have settled for now but new highs could once again hurt risk pairs including the GBPUSD. US inflation and UK inflation. US inflation and rate rises could be starting to be factored in unless we see a new spike. The minutes didn’t do much to drive the USD this week, while a new rise in UK inflation definitely supported the GBP yesterday giving the GBPUSD a nice boost in Wednesday’s session. With that in mind let’s look at some of the technicals we’re watching on the GBPUSD chart. For now, we see price stuck in consolidation with support and resistance currently holding price. Overall we can see two new uptrends in play, on the short and medium times. Price also sits above all three moving averages and the short term MAs are trading above the 86 MA. While support remains firm we will continue to look for buyers to push at a new continuation. The key to this is a break above the two resistance points. This could confirm a new breakout and start suggesting that the medium-term trend could continue. A break below support and a move back to the new Med-trend would be a small warning sign and further evidence would be required before thinking that the trend is going to continue. GBPUSD D1 Chart The post Forex News: GBPUSD setting up for a continuation? appeared first on Eightcap.
Tesla Stock News and Forecast: TSLA, RIVN or LCID stock, which is the best buy?

Tesla Stock News and Forecast: TSLA, RIVN or LCID stock, which is the best buy?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 16.02.2022 16:18
Tesla bounces strongly on Tuesday as risk assets surge. TSLA stock gains just over 5% on Tuesday. Geopolitical tensions falling help risk appetites return. Tesla (TSLA) shares bounced strongly on Tuesday, eventually closing up over 5% in a strong day for equities. The stock market was buoyed by news of some Russian deployments returning to their bases. Russia then appeared to confirm this as hopes grew for a diplomatic solution. This saw an obvious bounce in equities (https://www.fxstreet.com/markets/equities) with the strongest names being those that were previously the weakest. Understandable, but is this gain sustainable? NATO this morning has said it sees no sign of Russian troops pulling back from the Ukraine border. NATO has said it sees Russian troop numbers still growing along the Russian-Ukraine border. This news (https://www.fxstreet.com/news) still has legs. Volatility has been high as a result and will likely continue that way. Tesla Stock News The latest quarterly SEC filings have provided much information to pore over. In particular, Tesla, they do note some hedge fund selling. This is not too surprising given the record highs TSLA stock pushed on to before Elon Musk sold a stake. Benzinga reports that the latest filing shows Ray D'Alio's Bridgewater cutting its stake in Tesla. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest was regularly top-slicing her firm's stake in Tesla recently. CNBC also reported yesterday that hedge fund Greenlight Capital had made a bearish bet on Tesla shares. Greenlight, according to the report, has been a long time Tesla bear. Apart from those snippets though, macroeconomic factors are the main driver of the Tesla stock price currently. Electric vehicle stocks have not been a strong sector so far in 2022 as growth, in general, is out of favor with investors. This has led to steep falls in other names such as Rivian (RIVN) and Lucid (LCID). Both are at a much earlier stage of development than Tesla (TSLA) and on that basis, we would favor Tesla (TSLA) over them. But we must stress we would ideally avoid the sector entirely until perhaps the second quarter. Once markets have adjusted to the prospect of higher rates, some high-growth stocks may benefit. historical in a Fed (https://www.fxstreet.com/macroeconomics/central-banks/fed) hiking cycle the main indices do advance but growth sectors struggle. Rivian so far is down 36% year to date, Lucid is down 24% while Tesla is the outperformer, down 12% for 2022. Tesla Stock Forecast We remain in the chop zone between the two key levels of $945 and $886. Breaking $945 should lead to a move toward $1,063. That would still be consistent with the longer-term bearish trend. Nothing goes down or up in a straight line. TSLA is unlikely to be able to fight the current overpowering macroeconomic backdrop of rising rates (https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/rates) hitting high growth stocks. But breaking $945 is still significant in the short term and should see some fresh momentum. While $886 is significant, the 200-day moving average at $826 should have our real attention on the downside. Tesla has not closed below this level in over 6 months, so that would be significant and again lead to a fresh influx of momentum. Just this time though, it would be selling momentum. Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily Short-term swing traders should note the volume momentum behind moves. Once volume dries up, Tesla tends to fall off intraday. From the 15-minute chart below, we have an opening gap from Tuesday down to $880. This is short-term support, but a break will see the bottom of Monday's range at $840 tested. Tesla (TSLA) 15-minute chart
NYMEX Gas Prices Catapulted Like Fighter Jets from an Aircraft Carrier

NYMEX Gas Prices Catapulted Like Fighter Jets from an Aircraft Carrier

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 16.02.2022 16:56
  The Natural Gas flight has passed its first goal and is on its way to the second target. Here is a map showing the route to Natgas’ new destination. In today’s edition, I will provide some updates on recent market developments for Natural Gas futures (NGF22) following my last projections published on Friday, Feb. 11, for which the stop was also updated on Wednesday. Trade Plan We all love it when a trade plan comes together! The market has to cope with stronger demand to fuel increasing industrial activity after being surprised by the warming mid-February weather forecast. Therefore, you can see that the rebounding floor (support) provided was ideal for the Henry Hub, which is also supported by unyielding global demand for US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to turn its momentum back up. The recommended objective of $4.442 was almost hit yesterday. However, it was achieved this morning (during the European session) and the $4.818 level is now the next goal. As I explained in more detail in my last risk-management-related article to secure profits, my recommended stop, which was located just below the $ 3.629 level (below one-month previous swing low), was recently lifted up around the $3.886 level (around breakeven). Now it could be lifted one more time up to 4.180, which corresponds to the 50% distance between the initial entry and target 1. By doing so, the second half of the trade would become optimally managed. Alternatively, you can also use an Average True Range (ATR) multiple to determine a different level (above breakeven) that may better suit your trading style. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Now, let’s zoom into the 4H chart to observe the recent price action all around the abovementioned levels of our trade plan: DHenry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) That’s all folks for today. Happy trading! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Russia And Ukraine Are Still Interacting. Are Markets Likely To Await Next Geopolitical Events?

Russia And Ukraine Are Still Interacting. Are Markets Likely To Await Next Geopolitical Events?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 17.02.2022 09:43
The Ukrainian crisis is not likely to recede into the background anytime soon. Promising Russian statements about the withdrawal of troops are refuted by the West and Ukraine, near where the exercises are taking place. There was also a series of accusations and denials about the shootout in Donbas in the morning, which triggered impulsive selling of risky assets. The local momentum of the markets' decline was less than what we saw on Friday following Biden's statements about Russia's impending attack on Ukraine. Still, the latest news clearly shows that we should not hope for smooth and quick exhaustion of the conflict and a favourable resolution in the coming days. So far, however, there are more signals that Eastern European politicians still want a diplomatic, not forceful solution, which forms a modest reduction in the pull towards security. The Fed was also on the side of the stock market bulls yesterday. The published minutes of the January meeting were not as hawkish as investors had expected. The FOMC at the end of last month did not consider a 50-point rate hike in March and did not talk about the need for seven hikes this year. Then we had the labour market report, which showed strong growth in employment and wages, and even later came frightening figures about inflation accelerating to 40-year highs. Yesterday the retail sales figures were added to it. Americans bought harder than expected in January, and some observers attribute that to a rush of demand due to inflation fears and a spike in auto and apparel prices. The Fed might revise its view to a more hawkish one after bullish reports, but the markets did breathe a sigh of relief, managing to pull the S&P500 and Russell2000 into the green at the end of Wednesday. Meanwhile, the S&P500 and Dow Jones continue to struggle behind the 200-day moving average, with no victory signals for the bulls or the bears in this local battle. Investors and traders should pay close attention to this struggle, as a sharp pullback to one side or the other could set the direction for the days and weeks ahead.
Wednesday Wasn't A Big Gain Day For BTC (+0.1%), ETH Added More (+1.4%)

Wednesday Wasn't A Big Gain Day For BTC (+0.1%), ETH Added More (+1.4%)

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 17.02.2022 09:15
Bitcoin ended Wednesday with symbolic gains, gaining 0.1% to stay around $44,100. Ethereum rose 1.4%, and the other leading altcoins in the top ten also showed mostly upward momentum, from 0.3% (Binance Coin) to 5.5% (Avalanche). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, grew by 0.9% over the day, to $2.09 trillion. Altcoins were in high demand, which led to a decrease in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.3%, to 40.1%. The Fear and Greed Index rose another 1 point to 52 (neutral). For the second time this month, Bitcoin's growth is interrupted by attempts to gain a foothold above $45,000. In the event of a pullback, traders should monitor the dynamics near 42,000, where Bitcoin found support at the beginning of the week. Consolidation between 42,000 and 45,000 can be regarded as a positive signal, as it will consolidate confidence that the downtrend of recent months will not resume after a pause. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has launched an audit of the US representative office of the Binance crypto exchange. The Canadian authorities intend to track transactions in cryptocurrencies and block bank accounts in order to cut off funding for the Freedom Convoy truckers' protest movement. Twitter has added support for Ethereum addresses to the money transfer service within its application. The Bank of Russia plans to start the second stage of testing the cryptoruble in autumn. On Thursday morning, the markets and bitcoin experienced a downward momentum due to news of shelling in Ukraine. Cryptocurrencies reacted impulsively as a risk asset, but last week's example shows that they can also act as safe havens, as some investors may try to save capital using Bitcoin, Ethereum and a number of other large altcoins.
Crypto Airdrop - Explanation - How Does It Work?

Thursday: Significant Decreases Of Bitcoin (-7.7%) And ETH (-7.7%)

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 18.02.2022 08:52
Bitcoin collapsed on Thursday, the most in almost a month amid sales of risky assets. BTC lost 7.7%, ending the day near $40,700. Ethereum fell 7.7%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten also fell, from 5.4% (Binance Coin) to 8.5% (Terra). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, sank by 7.3%, to $1.94 trillion. Bitcoin sold more actively than altcoins, which led to a decrease in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.3%, to 39.8%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index plummeted 22 points to 30, returning to a state of fear. Bitcoin has clearly lost its function as a defensive asset lately, showing almost no correlation with gold, which was in high demand on Wednesday and Thursday. The technical picture looks bearish in the short term. Bitcoin did not hold above the 50-day average and fell under previous local lows. It is quite possible that from the end of January to mid-February, we saw a pullback after the momentum of the decline, and now a new step down is being formed. JPMorgan Bank indicated that crypto assets would be negatively affected by tightening US monetary policy. This approach puts crypto on a par with growth companies, which have also come under increased pressure amid rising market interest rates in recent weeks. Charles Munger, an associate of legendary investor Warren Buffett, likened cryptocurrencies to a "venereal disease" and praised China for banning them. According to him, cryptocurrencies are used by hackers, criminals, as well as those who evade taxes.
What Will Happen On Crypto Market In The Following Week?

What Will Happen On Crypto Market In The Following Week?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 18.02.2022 08:22
Well, so far, we’ve seen another choppy week with rallies and sell-offs. The week started on a positive note as buyers regained control after a weak end to the previous week. Buying jumped on Tuesday and peaked on Wednesday. At this point, you would have been justified in thinking, could we be set to start testing last week’s highs? Out of the top 10, AVAX and BNB did manage to test or break last week’s highs, but most failed to reach those levels before momentum swung hard back to the seller camp on Thursday. For now, Crypto looks to be locked into the risk response to the current crisis seen in Eastern Europe between Ukraine and Russia. As tensions increased, sellers hammered into crypto coins, knocking most of the week’s gains. Bitcoin and Ethereum lost just over 8% yesterday, and AVAX traded as much as 9% lower before closing off lows. At this stage, the crypto top 10 and 25 indexes sit just in the red after giving back just over 8% in gains. For us, the picture looks quite clear moving forward. Tensions in Europe, but we think markets should recover. If we see tensions continue or sadly if the situation escalates into all-out conflict, we would think that coins could see heavy seller pressure. Our focus is on Ethereum weekly chart this week as we look at this week’s fade, lining up with the current LH under bearish MAs. For now, supply looks firm from 3080 and if we see a lower close this week, that set up a new move back to the 2430 area that also lines up with previous support at the 86MA? We do think that for this to happen, there might need to be further fundamental influence to maintain the selling. The daily shows support at 2860, so if geopolitical tensions remain the same or ease, a hold at that area could set up a new move to retest this week’s highs and start putting pressure on the weekly bearish picture. The post Your Crypto Focus: 19th – 25th February appeared first on Eightcap.
Bearish Turn Coming

Bearish Turn Coming

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 17.02.2022 15:57
Thanks to Fed minutes, the S&P 500 closed modestly up, but could have taken the stronger credit markets cue. Instead, the upswing was sold into – the selling pressure is there, and neither value nor tech took the opportunity to rise, even against the backdrop of a weakening dollar. That‘s quite telling – the stock market correction hasn‘t run its course yet, and whatever progress the bulls make, is being countered convincingly. Precious metals adored the combo of yields and dollar turning down – and reacted with the miners‘ outperformance. The silver to copper ratio is basing, and the white metal looks to have better short-term prospects than the red one. Still in the headline sensitive environment we‘re in, gold would be stronger than silver until inflation is recognized for what it is. If there‘s one thing that the aftermath of Fed minutes showed, it‘s that the commodities superbull is alive and well, and that precious metals likewise are acting very positively in this tightening cycle. Suffice to say that gold has a track record of turning up once the rate hikes finally start… Excellent, the portfolio is positioned accordingly. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 rebound is getting suspect, and should stocks close on a weak note today, it‘s clear that today‘s wobbling Philly Fed Manufacturing Index won‘t be balanced out by the succession of Fed speakers – the signs of real economy headwinds are here. Credit Markets HYG upswing could have had broader repercussions, and it‘s quite telling it didn‘t. The risk-on turn would likely be sold into, with consequences. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals suffered a temporary setback only indeed – I‘m looking for the gains to continue as the miners outperformance just can‘t be overlooked. Crude Oil Crude oil dipped some more, and the dip was again bought. Given the late session wavering, I‘m looking for some more sideways and volatile trading ahead before the upswing reasserts itself. Copper Copper continues trading sideways, but with bullish undertones. More consolidation before another upswing attempt is probable. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are turning down, but still haven‘t broken either way out of the current range. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are sending a message of caution. Summary S&P 500 bulls‘ opportunity seems increasingly slipping away given that the buyers couldn‘t defend gains after Fed minutes release. The upturn in credit markets is likely to prove of fleeting shelf life, and would exert downward pressure upon stocks. As I wrote yesterday (and talked extensively within today‘s article chart captions), the commodities bull is likely to carry on with little interference – and so would the precious metals bull as the yield curve keeps compressing, and the beginning of rate hikes would mark further headwinds for the real economy at a time of persistent inflation that could be perhaps brought down to 4-5% official rate late this year (which would leave the mainstream wondering why it just isn‘t transitory somewhat more – what an irony). The Fed‘s tools to be employed are simply insufficient to break the inflation‘s back, that‘s it. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
AUDUSD And NZDUSD Charts Looks Quite Similar... SPX Trades A Bit Lower Than A Few Days Ago

AUDUSD And NZDUSD Charts Looks Quite Similar... SPX Trades A Bit Lower Than A Few Days Ago

John Benjamin John Benjamin 18.02.2022 08:51
AUDUSD attempts to break out The Australian dollar finds support from a low jobless rate in January. The pair has previously hit resistance in the supply zone around 0.7250. This is a daily resistance from the sell-off in late January. Then a recovery above 0.7180 suggests solid buying pressure before a bearish mood could take hold again. A break above the key hurdle could initiate a bullish reversal above this year’s peak (0.7310). Otherwise, a prolonged consolidation may test the demand area between 0.7100 and 0.7150. NZDUSD tests resistance The New Zealand dollar climbed higher as the RBNZ can lift its cash rates next week. Price action came under pressure on the 30-day moving average (0.6730). However, strong support at 0.6590 builds a case for a potential reversal. A break above 0.6690 is an encouraging sign leaving 0.6730 as the last obstacle before a bullish extension. A broader rally would bring the kiwi back to January’s high at 0.6890. In the meantime, an overbought RSI caused a brief pullback towards 0.6660. SPX 500 consolidates The S&P 500 struggles as the Russia-Ukraine crisis persists. The previous rebound has met stiff selling pressure over the 30-day moving average (4590). A pullback has sent the RSI into the oversold territory, triggering some buyers’ interest in racking up the bargain. The rebound is still valid as long as the index stays above the critical area of 4280. A break above 4480 may extend gains to the double top at 4590 which is an important resistance. 4360 is the immediate support if the sideways action lingers.
Is It Worth Adding Gold to Your Portfolio in 2022?

Is It Worth Adding Gold to Your Portfolio in 2022?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 17.02.2022 16:29
  Gold prices declined in 2021 and the prospects for 2022 are not impressive as well. However, the yellow metal’s strategic relevance remains high. Last month, the World Gold Council published two interesting reports about gold. The first one is the latest edition of Gold Demand Trends, which summarizes the entire last year. Gold supply decreased 1%, while gold demand rose 10% in 2021. Despite these trends, the price of gold declined by around 4%, which – for me – undermines the validity of the data presented by the WGC. I mean here that the relevance of some categories of gold demand (jewelry demand, technological demand, the central bank’s purchases) for the price formation is somewhat limited. The most important driver for gold prices is investment demand. Unsurprisingly, this category plunged 43% in 2021, driven by large ETF outlfows. According to the report, “gold drew direction chiefly from inflation and interest rate expectations in 2021,” although it seems that rising rates outweighed inflationary concerns. As the chart below shows, the interest rates increased significantly last year. For example, 10-year Treasury yields rose 60 basis points. As a result, the opportunity costs for holding gold moved up, triggering an outflow of gold holdings from the ETF. As the rise in interest rates is likely to continue in 2022 because of the hawkish stance of the Fed, gold investment may struggle this year as well. The end of quantitative easing and the start of quantitative tightening may add to the downward pressure on gold prices. However, there are some bullish caveats here. First, gold has remained resilient in January, despite the hawkish FOMC meeting. Second, the Fed’s tightening cycle could be detrimental to the US stock market and the overall, highly indebted economy, which could be supportive of gold prices. Third, as the report points out, “gold has historically outperformed in the months following the onset of a US Fed tightening cycle”. The second publication released by the WGC last month was “The Relevance of Gold as a Strategic Asset 2022”. The main thesis of the report is that gold is a strategic asset, complementary to equities and bonds, that enhances investment portfolios’ performance. This is because gold is “a store of wealth and a hedge against systemic risk, currency depreciation, and inflation.” It is also “highly liquid, no one’s liability, carries no credit risk, and is scarce, historically preserving its value over time.” Gold is believed to be a great source of return, as its price has increased by an average of nearly 11% per year since 1971, according to the WGC. Gold can also provide liquidity, as the gold market is highly liquid. As the report points out, “physical gold holdings by investors and central banks are worth approximately $4.9 trillion, with an additional $1.2 trillion in open interest through derivatives traded on exchanges or the over-the-counter (OTC) market.” Last but not least, gold is an excellent portfolio diversifier, as it is negatively correlated with risk assets, and – importantly – this negative correlation increases as these assets sell off. Hence, adding gold to a portfolio could diversify it, improving its risk-adjusted return, and also provide liquidity to meet liabilities in times of market stress. The WGC’s analysis suggests that investors should consider adding between 4% and 15% of gold to the portfolio, but personally, I would cap this share at 10%.   Implications for Gold What do the recent WGC reports imply for the gold market? Well, one thing is that adding some gold to the investment portfolio would probably be a smart move. After all, gold serves the role of both a safe-haven asset and an insurance against tail risks. It’s nice to be insured. However, investing in gold is something different, as gold may be either in a bullish or bearish trend. You should never confuse these two motives behind owning gold! Sometimes it’s good to own gold for both insurance and investment reasons, but not always. When it comes to 2022, investment demand for gold may continue to be under downward pressure amid rising interest rates. However, there are also some bullish forces at work, which could intensify later this year. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Decentralized Autonomous Organisation - Another Addition To Our Personal Dictionaries

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Investors spooked by renewed geopolitical tensions

FXStreet News FXStreet News 17.02.2022 16:10
Bitcoin price gets caught in a bearish triangle as tensions in Ukraine flare up again. Ethereum price returns to pivotal support, money repatriation goes into the second day. XRP price in pennant ready for a bearish breakout under the current sentiment. Cryptocurrencies are on the back foot as investors are getting worried about the escalating situation between Ukraine and Russia, as more reports come in from shots in the Donbas region near Luhansk. As the situation does not seem to de-escalate, investors are pulling their money out of what was believed to be the start of a solid and longer-term relief rally that is stalling at the moment. With more downside pressure to come, expect all significant cryptocurrencies to fall back to supportive pivotal levels. Bitcoin price falls into a bearish triangle, set to dip back below $40,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price is getting battered on Thursday after a fade on Wednesday that could still be attributed to some short-term profit-taking. The extension of the falls seems to confirm that sentiment is yet again dipping below zero towards risk-off. Investors pulling out their funds preemptively is reflected with the sharp decline in the Relative Strength Index, where the sell-side demand is outpacing the buy-side demand. In this context, Bitcoin price will remain under pressure for the rest of the week and could be set to slip below $40,000 in the coming days as the situation in Ukraine is set to deteriorate again, potentially inflicting further damage to the market mood. BTC price sees bulls unable to hold price action above $44,088 and in the process is forming a descending trend line that, together with the base at $41,756, is forming a bearish triangle. Expect Bitcoin valuation to decline further as the tensions around Luhansk increase by the hour. Once the $41,756 support is broken, the road is open for a nosedive towards $39,780 with the $40,000 psychological level broken yet again to the downside. BTC/USD daily chart A hail mary could be provided by the 55-day Simple Moving Average at $42,340, which already provided support on February 9 and February 15. With that move, a sudden breakthrough in the peace talks could become the needed catalyst to improve the situation and dislocate Bitcoin price action from the drag of the geopolitical news that is weighing. Bitcoin would see the demand on the buy-side blow up and see a big pop above $44,088. Ethereum bulls are breaking their jaws on the 55-day SMA as the price fades further Ethereum (ETH) price is getting crushed against the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $3,143, with bulls unfit to push and try to close price action above it. After three failed attempts in a row, it is becoming clear that the bullish support is wearing thin as, on Tuesday, the daily candle closed above there, and even if the next day ETH price opened above again, it closed below the 55-day SMA. On Wednesday, finally, both the open and the closing price were below the 55-day SMA. This proves that sentiment has shifted in just three trading days and looks set to fade further away from the 55-day SMA on Friday. Expect going forward in the next coming hours that bulls will get squeezed against the wall at $3,018 with both a pivotal level and the $3,000 marker a few dollars below there. As tensions mount, expect some more negative headlines, a breach in defense of the bulls with even the monthly pivot at $2,929 getting involved in the crosshairs. Depending on the severity and the further deterioration of the political situation in Ukraine and the correction in the stock markets, it is possible to see a nosedive towards $2,695. ETH/USD daily chart Global market sentiment is hanging on the lips of Ukraine and the geopolitical situation. With that, it is clear that once the situation gets resolved or de-escalates, markets can shift 180 degrees in a matter of seconds. That same rule applies to cryptocurrencies where Ethereum could pop back above the 55-day SMA and even set sail for $3,391, breaking the high of February and flirting with new highs for 2022. Bulls joining the rally will want to keep a close eye and be mindful of the RSI, as that would start to flirt with being overbought and, from there on, limiting any further big moves in the hours or next trading days to come. Ethereum short squeeze could trigger a spike to $4,000 XRP price set to lose 10% of market value as headline news breaks down relief rally Ripple (XRP) price is stuck in a pennant and is close to a breakout that looks set to be a bearish one. As global markets are continuing the fade from Wednesday, XRP price is breaking below the recent low and sees bears hammering down on the ascending side of the pennant. As more negative headlines cross the wires, expect this to add ammunition for bears to continue and start breaking the pennant to the downside. XRP price will look for support on the next support at hand, which comes in at $0.78, and depending on the severity of the news flow, that level should hold again as it did on February 14. If that is not the caseany further downside will be cut short by the double bottom around $0.75 from February 12 and 13 and the 55-day SMA coming in at or around that area. With that move, the RSI will be triggering some "oversold" red flags and see bears booking profit. XRP/USD daily chart A false bearish breakout could easily see bears trapped on entering on the break to the downside out of the pennant as bulls go in for the squeeze. That would mean that price shoots up towards $0.88 and takes out this week's high. Bears would be forced to change sides and join the buy-side demand to close their losing positions, adding to even more demand and possibly hitting $0.90 in the process. XRP set to explode towards $1.00, bulls hopeful over SEC vs Ripple case
Gores Guggenheim Stock News and Forecast: Is GGPI a better bet than LCID or RIVN?

Gores Guggenheim Stock News and Forecast: Is GGPI a better bet than LCID or RIVN?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 17.02.2022 16:10
GGPI Stock has rallied after a Superbowl ad. GGPI stock surges another 4% on Wednesday as momentum remains high. GGPI may struggle as markets turn negative and growth stocks struggle to hold gains. Gores Guggenheim (GGPI) stock is probably more commonly referred to as Polestar stock now that the SPAC will take electric vehicle maker Polestar public this year. The deal is due to complete some time in the first half of 2022. Polestar is an electric vehicle maker backed by Volvo and Chinese company Geely. So what is different about this one compared to the others? Gores Guggenheim Stock News Polestar looks merely like Volvo's EV division. We know this is not the case as Volvo has its hybrid and EV models planned. However, the companies certainly have strong links. Rivian (RIVN) went public in a blaze of hype and publicity due largely to its links to Amazon (AMZN) and Ford (F). Both companies had stakes in Rivian. However, from what we know, Rivian will have to build out its manufacturing and distribution network. It will not piggyback on Ford for this. Polestar uses the Volvo service network in the UK, and Polestar will utilize Volvo's South Carolina plant to manufacture Polestar models in the US. Previously, Polestar said it will have its showrooms in the US but use Volvo for servicing. Polestar will look to do as much sales work as possible online and use Volvo then for manufacturing and servicing. This gives it an obvious advantage over LCID and RIVN. Gores Guggenheim Stock Forecast On Wednesday, the stock spiked again, closing nearly 5% higher at $12.02. The company has been in charge since the Superbowl ad brought more attention to the stock and the cars. Both seem well received. Now GGPI stock has ramped up to a strong resistance area. Above $12 and as high as $12.36 is the previous spike high from December. This will be tough to break given that high risk stocks are likely to suffer as we close out the week. Geopolitical events are dominating and high growth names are still not favored. SPACs generally hold $10 cash until the deal goes through, so this is obvious support. The best strategy with SPAC trading is to try and buy as close to $10 as possible. GGPI 1-day chart
Still Taking The Conflict Into Consideration, What's Not A Big Surprise

Still Taking The Conflict Into Consideration, What's Not A Big Surprise

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 18.02.2022 12:48
While US indices plunged yesterday as the situation near the Ukraine-Russia border remained tense with the S & P 500 dropping 2.12%, Nasdaq falling 2.88% and Dow Jones pulling back 1.78%, reports of shelling in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts in eastern Ukraine continue. However, the US President will host a meeting with leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Poland, Italy, Romania, UK, EU and NATO today which along with an announced meeting between US secretary Blinken and Russia's Lavrov next week has helped moods stabilize slightly. Oil prices pulled back noticeably with Brent dropping below $90 and gold gave up some gains after benefiting from the significant risk-off moods seen this week which saw it reach the highest level since mid 2021. With a lack of data releases and with a long weekend ahead in the US, we could be seeing significant volatility across markets as investors and traders adjust their positions to limit risk exposure and in anticipation of a potential escalation of the conflict. On the other hand, any sign of easing of tensions has been received positively from markets and further indication could lead to a return of risk appetite across asset classes, which could favor stocks as well as the cryptocurrency market, which have struggled to maintain gains lately. UK retail sales point to continued post pandemic recovery Today's retail sales figures continue to provide encouraging signs as the economy recovers from the pandemic and as businesses as well as consumers begin to adjust to rising inflation. While these figures indicated a rise of retail sales volumes by 1.9% in January 2022 following a fall of 4.0% in December 2021, an interesting thing to note is that the proportion of retail sales online fell to 25.3% in January 2022, its lowest level since March 2020 (22.7%). Ultimately, it remains to be seen how the Bank of England's policy will facilitate this trend moving forward in order to avoid a stagnation situation and as rising prices across sectors continue to add pressure.
Thaw Incoming? GBP Could Be Ahead Of An Uptrend As Retails Sales Indicator Hits Fine Value

Thaw Incoming? GBP Could Be Ahead Of An Uptrend As Retails Sales Indicator Hits Fine Value

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 18.02.2022 09:30
UK retail sales added 1.9% in January, following a dip of 4.0% a month earlier. By the same month a year earlier, the increase was 9.1%, as January 2021 saw a sharp tightening of the lockdown and the vaccination campaign had only just started. The data came out slightly better than expected, supporting purchases of British currency against the dollar, but remains very volatile due to restrictions in previous months. Sales generally remained above multi-year trend levels, which is a good signal of the economy’s health. After the financial crisis from 2009 to 2016, there was a long period when sales were below the long-term trend line and were one of the obstacles why the Bank of England could not go ahead with a rate hike. These days, the need to suppress inflation is combined with the ability to do so thanks to strong consumer demand and the labour market. Sales were also boosted by pent-up demand for services and goods that were in restricted supply during the pandemic. This process may gain momentum in the coming months, painting a more colourful picture of consumer activity, but could lead to disappointment in the second half of the year. The Bank of England should keep a close eye on the coming economic releases to avoid repeating the mistakes of the ECB, which rushed through a rate hike in May 2009, undermining the economic recovery. On Friday morning, the British pound is testing the highs of February, rising to 1.3630. A rise to 1.3680 may be a development in the current momentum. However, a jump even higher would reflect a break of the downtrend since last June, anchoring GBPUSD above the 200-day average and setting the pair up to test previous highs.
Oh, Someone Has Stopped Brent Oil Price From Going "Out Of Range"

Oh, Someone Has Stopped Brent Oil Price From Going "Out Of Range"

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 18.02.2022 13:20
Gold and oil, former beneficiaries of geopolitical tensions late last week, have gone their separate ways, with the former rising 2.4% and the latter losing 5% since the start of this week. Brent crude rolled back below $90 and, at one point on Friday, was losing 2.3% to $89, despite still worrying reports of tensions around Ukraine and Russia. It has fallen below the local support of the past ten days and is now just one step away from a decline since the start of the month. While geopolitics remains a joker capable of playing, either way, the macroeconomic picture is working to cool the oil price. US commercial oil inventories rose last week against a seasonally typical decline. As a result, inventories are now 10.9% lower than a year earlier, although it was -15% in mid-January. Production stagnated at 11.6m b/d, but at the end of last week, there was an increase in the number of operating oil rigs from 497 to 516. New data will be released later this evening. Probably, we will see more evidence that producers have stepped up production, convinced of the strength of demand and record profits in many years at their disposal. Locally, the activation of extractive companies is playing into the price pullback from current levels. However, it is a factor in slowing price growth in the longer term, but not a failure. The vector of monetary policy is also worth paying attention to. Rising rates often derail speculative growth in oil. We saw the last two examples on this theme in 2014-2015 when oil collapsed by 75%, and in 2018, it fell by 45%. After those hard lessons, OPEC+ has worked much more closely to meet quotas, so we are talking about a correction rather than a new bear market for oil. Speaking of a local correction, we assume a pullback in the Brent price to the $85 area. That is the peak area in October last year and September 2018 and close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from December to mid-February. Deeper drawdowns are also possible if monetary tightening coincides with geopolitical détente and slowing demand. In that case, Brent might briefly correct towards $80. Positive signals on the Iran deal are also factors holding oil back. An agreement with Iran would signal an easing of some of the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and add around 1% to the global energy system, allowing the resulting shortfall to be digested and a smooth return to restocking for the world.
Fed And BoE Ahead Of Interest Rates Decisions. Having A Look At Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Charts

Mid & Small Cap Indexes May Surge Higher

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 16.02.2022 21:32
As the global markets move away from recent concerns of war and Fed rate hikes, I believe both Small and Mid Cap indexes are uniquely positioned to potentially surge 7% to 11%, or more, from recent lows. My analysis suggests both the Small and Mid Cap Indexes may have moved excessively lower over the past 30+ trading days. They may be poised for a unique opportunity and a substantial price rally if the global markets continue to move away from extreme risk events. As the US Fed and global central banks position to combat inflation while war tensions build near Ukraine, I believe the US Small and Mid Cap Indexes are uniquely undervalued and ready for a potential move higher. The recent recovery in the US major indexes may be evidence of strong bullish price momentum underlying the US Major Indexes. I believe that foreign capital is moving into various US assets to avoid foreign market/currency risks. The US Small and Mid Cap Indexes seem like perfect opportunities for this capital deployment. IWM May Rally 12 to 14% - Targeting $238 to $240 This Weekly IWM chart highlights a support level near $191.00 and a recent Three River Morning Star bottom reversal pattern near $194.40. It also highlights the previous range-based trading and dual Pennant/Flag setups using shaded BLUE and YELLOW Rectangles. I believe IWM has a solid potential to rally back to near the $220 level before finding resistance (+7.25%). If this bullish price momentum continues, IWM may rally to levels above $238 to $240. The global markets may have recently focused too much on the US Fed and Global Central Banks while missing the underlying strength of the US economy. Consumers are still spending, and the US Fed has yet to make any substantial adjustments to rates or balance sheets. These recent lows may provide an excellent opportunity for traders to capitalize on a “reversion price move” soon. The only way to navigate and capitalize on these price swings is to stay focused on Technical Analysis and strategic opportunities for trades when they occur. WHAT TRADING STRATEGIES WILL HELP YOU TO NAVIGATE CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, setups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase. This may start a revaluation phase as global traders identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern drive traders/investors into Metals. I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 
Our Attention Should Be Drawn To Fed As Well, An Increase Of Interest Rate Is Likely To Come

Our Attention Should Be Drawn To Fed As Well, An Increase Of Interest Rate Is Likely To Come

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 15.02.2022 15:31
The FED has made it very clear that it will raise its benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate. This could have severe consequences and even lead to a financial crisis. They are too far behind the curve and will be labeled a major policy error in the future, most likely. They have put themselves in a situation where they are now their own hostage. They need more leadership to describe what a soft landing is going to look like. They have been too slow to act, and now they are going too fast. The “Powell Put” has now been put out to pasture. We believe that the FED will make more rate hikes than they have announced. Goldman Sachs thinks there will be four 25-basis-point increases in the federal funds rate in 2022. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said, “he wouldn’t be surprised if there were even more interest rate hikes than that in 2022. There’s a pretty good chance there will be more than four. There could be six or seven. I grew up in a world where Paul Volcker raised his rates 200 basis points on a Saturday night.” Mr. James Bullard of the St. Louis FED spoke out in an arrogant tone that aggressive action is now required. The markets translated this to mean that the FED was going to call an emergency meeting as soon as this coming week to hike interest rates by no less than 50 basis points. This sent interest rates soaring and stock prices plummeting. WARNING: More Downside To Come Uncertainty abounds regarding the path of inflation and new FED policy. This has created a landscape of continued strong periods of distribution in the equity markets. If there are any bounces, they should be used to sell ‘risk assets’. This has been one of the worst starts to a calendar year in the history of the stock and bond markets. Chart Source: Zero Hedge Last Thursday, the reported inflation rate increased by 7.7 percent, the highest in forty years. Stocks tumble as red-hot inflation print pressures technology shares. Markets didn’t like this, which immediately moved them down. Bears are in control of the market, which can be observed from Friday’s trading session. The U.S. 10-year yield rose above 2% for the first time since August 2019 amid a broad Treasury-market selloff. It was driven by expectations for quicker FED interest-rate hikes to contain faster than predicted inflation. It takes at least two to three years to have any material impact on the economy. One sector is currently doing well, which is the oil sector. Cycle's analysis is applied to find the best stocks to invest in and the best sectors. The next sector we are monitoring is Gold/Silver. Crude oil prices are staying strong. There are a lot of geopolitical factors in play here. I think there's a risk premium on oil right now because of Russia. What The Heck is CPI? The Consumer Price Index, CPI, is the measure of changes in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services. This is one of the most frequently used statistics for identifying periods of inflation in households. Consumer Price Index Summary. Last Thursday, the inflation figures were released, confirming that everything is getting more expensive. It is up 7.5 percent versus last year. Mortgage rates are starting to rise. If you plan to buy a new home, this is the time to do it. These historically low interest rates will not last long. Should I Invest In Gold Today? Owning gold acts as a hedge against inflation as well as a good portfolio diversifier as it is a great store of value. Gold also provides financial cover during geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. Gold has historically been an excellent hedge against inflation because its price tends to rise when the cost-of-living increases. Conclusion: It seems the stock market may be on its last leg here. Big money flow has been coming out of the large-cap stocks while commodities have been rising. Commodities are typically one of the last assets to rally before the stock market top and start a bear market. I see all the signs, but we must wait for the price to confirm before taking action. We have seen this setup before in 2015/2016, also in 2018, and the market recovered and rallied dramatically from those levels.  What Trading Strategies Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 
Ukraine parliament approves crypto legislation amidst rising geopolitical tension

Ukraine parliament approves crypto legislation amidst rising geopolitical tension

FXStreet News FXStreet News 18.02.2022 16:20
Ukraine has revised its cryptocurrency bill and replaced the regulatory body for oversight on cryptocurrencies. Amidst rising geopolitical tensions, Ukraine has established the National Securities and Stock Market Commission of Ukraine.The updated version of the crypto bill identifies the National Bank of Ukraine and NSSMC as two major crypto regulators. Verkhovna Rada, the Parliament of Ukraine, has approved significant amendments in the country’s cryptocurrency bill, “On Virtual Assets.” Proponents consider the amendment bullish for the adoption of cryptocurrencies in Ukraine. Ukraine passes legislation on cryptocurrency bill amendmentWhile geopolitical tension rises, cryptocurrencies have suffered a bloodbath. Ukrainian Rada has passed the legislation in the second reading despite the dropping price and market capitalization, with 272 out of 365 deputies supporting the bill. The Ministry of Digital Transformation is no longer on the list of authorities overseeing the cryptocurrency market. The Parliament has appointed The National Securities and Stock Market Commission of Ukraine or NSSMC to regulate the cryptocurrency market. The updated version of the cryptocurrency bill appoints the two significant authorities National Bank of Ukraine and the NSSMC, as regulators of the crypto market. The authorities have been appointed to oversee the turnover of assets backed by currency valuables. Cryptocurrency assets and derivative financial instruments would be regulated under the new provisions. Alex Bornyakov, the Deputy Minister of Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation, believes that the ministry’s latest moves indicate an acceptance of cryptocurrencies in Ukraine. The country first started working on its crypto bill in November 2021, adopting cryptocurrencies to become a leader in the ecosystem. However, the initial crypto bill was sent back to the Parliament for further consideration. The news of the amendment is considered positive for adopting cryptocurrencies in Ukraine. This could contribute to a rise in demand in times of geopolitical tension.
In Contrary To Others, DXY Is Likely To Feel Stable

In Contrary To Others, DXY Is Likely To Feel Stable

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 18.02.2022 16:25
  Gold and the USDX reacted vigorously to the worrisome news concerning Eastern Europe. However, only the latter can be calm about its medium-term future. As geopolitical tensions uplift gold, silver, and mining stocks, they’re in rally mode each time a doom-and-gloom headline surfaces. However, while the ‘will they or won’t they’ saga commands investors’ attention, the USD Index continues to behave rationally. For example, while volatility has increased recently, the dollar basket has held firm. To explain, I wrote on Feb. 17: The USD Index is at its medium-term support line. All previous moves to / slightly below it were then followed by rallies, sometimes really big rallies, so we’re likely to see something like that once again. Such a rally would be the prefect trigger for the triangle-vertex-based reversal in gold and the following slide. Please see below: Furthermore, the USD Index’s recent pullback was far from a surprise. For example, I highlighted on numerous occasions that the greenback is nearing its weekly rising resistance line, and the price action has unfolded as I expected. Moreover, while overbought conditions resulted in a short-term breather, history shows that the USD Index eventually catches its second wind. To explain, I previously wrote: I marked additional situations on the chart below with orange rectangles – these were the recent cases when the RSI based on the USD Index moved from very low levels to or above 70. In all three previous cases, there was some corrective downswing after the initial part of the decline, but once it was over – and the RSI declined somewhat – the big rally returned and the USD Index moved to new highs. As a result, with the USD Index showcasing a reliable history of profound comebacks, higher highs should materialize over the medium term. Please see below: Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices (or those of silver) here is likely not a good idea. Continuing the theme, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie, and with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the wind remains at the dollar’s back. Furthermore, dollar bears often miss the forest through the trees: with the USD Index’s long-term breakout gaining steam, the implications of the chart below are profound. While very few analysts cite the material impact (when was the last time you saw the USDX chart starting in 1985 anywhere else?), the USD Index has been sending bullish signals for years. Please see below: The bottom line? With my initial 2021 target of 94.5 already hit, the ~98-101 target is likely to be reached over the medium term (and perhaps quite soon). Mind, though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’s absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone. The EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters. In conclusion, the financial markets remain on Russia-Ukraine watch. While gold, silver, mining stocks, and the USD Index whipsaw on the news, the technical and fundamental backdrops support higher prices for the latter, not the former. Thus, while geopolitical tensions are always short-term bullish for the precious metals, the rush is often short-lived. As a result, the trios’ downtrends that began in late 2020 will likely resurface once the headline-driven market returns to normal. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Wondering How Inflation And Fed Reaction Will Affect Gold

Wondering How Inflation And Fed Reaction Will Affect Gold

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 18.02.2022 16:05
  Not only won’t inflation end soon, it’s likely to remain high. Whether gold will be able to take advantage of it will depend, among others, on the Fed. Do you sometimes ask yourself when this will all end? I don’t mean the universe, nor our lives, nor even this year (c’mon, guys, it has just started!). I mean, of course, inflation. If only you weren’t in a coma last year, you would have probably noticed that prices had been surging recently. For instance, America finished the year with a shocking CPI annual rate of 7.1%, the highest since June 1982, as the chart below shows. Now, the key question is how much higher inflation could rise, or how persistent it could be. The consensus is that we will see a peak this year and subsequent cooling down, but to still elevated levels. This is the view I also hold. However, would I bet my collection of precious metals on it? I don’t know, as inflation could surprise us again, just as it did to most of the economists (but not me) last year. The risk is clearly to the upside. As always in economics, it’s a matter of supply and demand. There is even a joke that all you need to turn a parrot into an economist is to teach it to say ‘supply’ and ‘demand’. Funny, huh? When it comes to the demand side, both the money supply growth and the evolution of personal saving rate implies some cooling down of inflation rate. Please take a look at the chart below. As you can see, the broad money supply peaked in February 2021. Assuming a one-year lag between the money supply and price level, inflation rate should reach its peak somewhere in the first quarter of this year. There is one important caveat here: the pace of money supply growth has not returned to the pre-pandemic level, but it stabilized at about 13%, double the rate seen at the end of 2019. Inflation was then more or less at the Fed’s target of 2%, so without constraining money supply growth, the US central bank couldn’t beat inflation. As the chart above also shows, the personal saving rate has returned to the pre-pandemic level of 7-8%. It means that the bulk of pent-up demand has already materialized, which should also help to ease inflation in the future. However, not all of the ‘forced savings’ have already entered the market. Thus, personal consumption expenditures are likely to be elevated for some time, contributing to boosted inflation. Regarding supply factors, although some bottlenecks have eased, the disruptions have not been fully resolved. The spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus and regional lockdowns in China could prolong the imbalances between booming demand and constrained supply. Other contributors to high inflation are rising producer prices, increasing house prices and rents, strong inflation expectations (see the chart below), and labor shortages combined with fast wage growth. The bottom line is that, all things considered – in particular high level of demand, continued supply issues, and de-anchored inflation expectations – I forecast another year of elevated inflation, but probably not as high as in 2021. After reaching a peak in a few months, the inflation rate could ease to, let’s say, around 4% in December, if we are lucky. Importantly, the moderate bond yields also suggest that inflation will ease somewhat later in 2022. What does it mean for the gold market? Well, I don’t have good news for the gold bulls. Gold loves high and accelerating inflation the most. Indeed, as the chart below shows, gold peaks coincided historically with inflation heights. The most famous example is the inflation peak in early 1980, when gold ended its impressive rally and entered into a long bearish trend. The 2011 top also happened around the local inflationary peak. The only exception was the 2005 peak in inflation, when gold didn’t care and continued its bullish trend. However, this was partially possible thanks to the decline in the US dollar, which seems unlikely to repeat in the current macroeconomic environment, in which the Fed is clearly more hawkish than the ECB or other major central banks. The relatively strong greenback won’t help gold shine. Surely, disinflation may turn out to be transitory and inflation may increase again several months later. Lower inflation implies a less aggressive Fed, which should be supportive of gold prices. However, investors should remember that the US central bank will normalize its monetary policy no matter the inflation rate. Since the Great Recession, inflation has been moderate, but the Fed has tightened its stance eventually, nevertheless. Hence, gold may experience a harsh moment when inflation peaks. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
WTI falls back into the $89.00s amid technical selling, Iran/US deal chatter, Ukraine crisis hopes

WTI falls back into the $89.00s amid technical selling, Iran/US deal chatter, Ukraine crisis hopes

FXStreet News FXStreet News 18.02.2022 16:20
WTI fell into the $89.00s on Friday and current trades about $2.0 down on the day. Technical selling, hope for a diplomatic solution to Ukraine crisis and talk of an Iran/US deal nearing soon weigh on oil. Technical selling, hopes that a high-level US/Russia meeting next week might solve the Ukraine stand-off and bets that US sanctions on Iranian oil exports will soon end amid momentum towards reviving the 2015 nuclear pact weighed on oil on Friday. Front-month WTI futures broke below a key upwards trendline that had been supporting the price action since the start of the year and slumped to the mid-$89.00s per barrel, where they now trade lower by more than $2.0 on the day. Bears will be eyeing an imminent test of the next key area of support in the $88.50 region in the form of last week’s lows. Despite news that pro-Russia separatist leaders in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in Ukraine’s Eastern Donbas region ordered an immediate evacuation of local civilians into Russia as fighting in the region escalates, traders hoped diplomacy could yet prevail. As Russia continue to amass troops on Ukraine’s doorstep, the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will meet face-to-face next week, reportedly under the condition that there will not be a Russian invasion. Separately, OPEC+ sources on Friday said the group thinks a US/Iran deal to revive the 2015 nuclear pact, thus removing US restrictions on Iranian oil exports and allowing for the return of 1.3M barrels per day to global markets, is near. Despite the Iran news and near-term bearish technical picture following the break below key 2022 uptrend support, traders said markets should remain reasonably well support near highs amid continued expectations for tight global oil market conditions.
COT Soft Commodities Speculators drop Sugar bullish wagers to 91-week low

COT Soft Commodities Speculators drop Sugar bullish wagers to 91-week low

Invest Macro Invest Macro 19.02.2022 15:30
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the recent turnaround in speculator sentiment for the Sugar futures bets. The speculative net position in the Sugar futures has fallen for three straight weeks and in ten out of the past twelve weeks. Overall, the net position has now decreased by a total of -170,063 net contracts over the past twelve weeks. Sugar bullish bets had been on a strong uptrend from 2020 through 2021 with speculator bullish bets reaching a recent high of +302,267 net contracts on August 17th. Since then, contracts and sugar prices have cooled off and have started lower with the trend accelerating over the past few months. The slipping sentiment has pushed the current speculator standing for Sugar to the lowest level of the past ninety-one weeks, dating back to May of 2020. The soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Coffee (3,558 contracts), Soybeans (7,002 contracts), Soybean Oil (1,285 contracts), Soybean Meal (3,284 contracts), Live Cattle (3,758 contracts), Lean Hogs (690 contracts) and Cocoa (6,361 contracts). The soft commodities that saw lower bets this week were Corn (-5,110 contracts), Sugar (-4,527 contracts), Cotton (-3,487 contracts) and Wheat (-2,268 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,122,758 39 348,093 8 -392,000 80 43,907 77 Gold 558,645 35 213,613 56 -238,875 45 25,262 36 Silver 156,968 23 23,556 46 -36,348 63 12,792 17 Copper 210,089 34 30,692 64 -39,421 32 8,729 76 Palladium 8,358 9 -1,000 15 903 83 97 50 Platinum 59,897 22 10,132 16 -16,020 86 5,888 44 Natural Gas 1,098,101 0 -131,424 39 99,903 62 31,521 59 Brent 214,404 51 -26,325 73 22,279 27 4,046 64 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 856,917 58 216,732 84 -186,438 22 -30,294 20 Corn 1,607,591 39 414,492 83 -374,969 19 -39,523 20 Coffee 254,992 25 70,425 100 -75,230 1 4,805 22 Sugar 871,213 11 74,563 52 -90,388 51 15,825 27 Wheat 402,232 35 -5,846 42 10,013 51 -4,167 82   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 414,492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,110 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 419,602 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.8 45.0 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.0 68.3 11.6 – Net Position: 414,492 -374,969 -39,523 – Gross Longs: 510,734 723,086 146,972 – Gross Shorts: 96,242 1,098,055 186,495 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 83.0 18.5 20.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.0 1.1 13.3   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 74,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,527 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,090 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.0 56.2 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.4 66.6 7.2 – Net Position: 74,563 -90,388 15,825 – Gross Longs: 182,861 489,754 78,130 – Gross Shorts: 108,298 580,142 62,305 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 51.0 27.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.2 19.4 -4.9   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 70,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,558 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,867 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.4 41.5 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.7 71.0 2.7 – Net Position: 70,425 -75,230 4,805 – Gross Longs: 79,961 105,790 11,577 – Gross Shorts: 9,536 181,020 6,772 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 99.7 0.9 21.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.5 -13.7 11.2   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 216,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,002 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 209,730 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.5 43.8 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.2 65.6 10.2 – Net Position: 216,732 -186,438 -30,294 – Gross Longs: 261,666 375,676 56,797 – Gross Shorts: 44,934 562,114 87,091 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.8 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 83.9 22.0 19.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.3 -22.2 14.2   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 67,320 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,285 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,035 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.4 46.8 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.3 66.0 6.4 – Net Position: 67,320 -80,652 13,332 – Gross Longs: 102,372 196,884 40,131 – Gross Shorts: 35,052 277,536 26,799 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.2 39.5 63.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.5 -12.4 26.9   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 109,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,284 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,260 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.4 43.8 11.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.0 74.1 5.6 – Net Position: 109,544 -135,761 26,217 – Gross Longs: 131,883 196,526 51,263 – Gross Shorts: 22,339 332,287 25,046 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.9 5.2 75.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.2 -7.0 7.4   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 83,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,758 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,809 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.3 36.9 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.8 56.5 13.2 – Net Position: 83,567 -69,675 -13,892 – Gross Longs: 132,481 130,961 32,844 – Gross Shorts: 48,914 200,636 46,736 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.1 50.5 53.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.9 -6.7 -8.7   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 67,332 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,642 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.7 32.3 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.6 52.3 12.0 – Net Position: 67,332 -56,167 -11,165 – Gross Longs: 113,909 90,422 22,524 – Gross Shorts: 46,577 146,589 33,689 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.1 24.6 31.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.9 -15.8 16.4   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 93,723 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,210 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.9 38.3 7.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.0 80.4 3.6 – Net Position: 93,723 -104,282 10,559 – Gross Longs: 106,081 94,792 19,508 – Gross Shorts: 12,358 199,074 8,949 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 82.4 17.0 79.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.4 2.8 -6.5   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 49,216 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,361 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,855 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.1 41.7 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.2 62.4 3.2 – Net Position: 49,216 -53,823 4,607 – Gross Longs: 86,191 108,555 12,975 – Gross Shorts: 36,975 162,378 8,368 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.2 30.8 60.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 39.0 -40.4 28.2   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,268 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,578 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.5 39.0 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.0 36.5 9.6 – Net Position: -5,846 10,013 -4,167 – Gross Longs: 106,622 156,858 34,592 – Gross Shorts: 112,468 146,845 38,759 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.0 50.6 81.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.5 3.7 29.4   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Energy Speculators push Natural Gas bearish bets to 6-week high

COT Energy Speculators push Natural Gas bearish bets to 6-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 19.02.2022 15:38
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT energy data is the large decline in this week’s Natural Gas futures bets. The speculative net position in the Natural Gas futures dropped this week by -16,335 contracts which marks the largest one-week amount since September. Speculators had been reducing their bearish bets in previous weeks with decreases in bearish bets in five out of the previous six weeks before this week’s rise in bearish bets. Overall, the Natural Gas speculator positions are now at the most bearish standing of the past six weeks. Joining Natural Gas (-16,335 contracts) in falling this week were Brent Crude Oil (-2 contracts), WTI Crude Oil (-15,290 contracts), Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts), Gasoline (-156 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-4,573 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,122,758 39 348,093 8 -392,000 80 43,907 77 Gold 558,645 35 213,613 56 -238,875 45 25,262 36 Silver 156,968 23 23,556 46 -36,348 63 12,792 17 Copper 210,089 34 30,692 64 -39,421 32 8,729 76 Palladium 8,358 9 -1,000 15 903 83 97 50 Platinum 59,897 22 10,132 16 -16,020 86 5,888 44 Natural Gas 1,098,101 0 -131,424 39 99,903 62 31,521 59 Brent 214,404 51 -26,325 73 22,279 27 4,046 64 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 856,917 58 216,732 84 -186,438 22 -30,294 20 Corn 1,607,591 39 414,492 83 -374,969 19 -39,523 20 Coffee 254,992 25 70,425 100 -75,230 1 4,805 22 Sugar 871,213 11 74,563 52 -90,388 51 15,825 27 Wheat 402,232 35 -5,846 42 10,013 51 -4,167 82   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 348,093 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 363,383 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.6 36.1 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.2 54.6 2.8 – Net Position: 348,093 -392,000 43,907 – Gross Longs: 458,819 767,338 102,736 – Gross Shorts: 110,726 1,159,338 58,829 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.8 79.9 76.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.8 -8.1 9.6   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -26,325 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,323 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.6 47.7 4.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.9 37.3 2.8 – Net Position: -26,325 22,279 4,046 – Gross Longs: 37,767 102,255 10,006 – Gross Shorts: 64,092 79,976 5,960 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.6 26.7 63.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -27.4 26.7 -3.0   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -131,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,335 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -115,089 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.4 44.4 5.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.3 35.3 2.2 – Net Position: -131,424 99,903 31,521 – Gross Longs: 234,678 487,701 55,830 – Gross Shorts: 366,102 387,798 24,309 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.1 62.4 58.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.2 -3.2 -0.7   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 62,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,752 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.9 50.7 6.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.3 68.8 3.8 – Net Position: 62,596 -72,742 10,146 – Gross Longs: 108,035 203,940 25,503 – Gross Shorts: 45,439 276,682 15,357 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.8 64.2 72.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.7 -2.3 24.0   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9 – Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979 – Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210 – Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -17,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,468 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 61.7 34.5 1.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 96.1 1.3 0.2 – Net Position: -17,041 16,437 604 – Gross Longs: 30,521 17,060 700 – Gross Shorts: 47,562 623 96 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 27.4 to 1 7.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.3 56.5 40.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.0 8.4 -59.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Metals Speculators boosted their Copper bullish bets to 15-week high

COT Metals Speculators boosted their Copper bullish bets to 15-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 19.02.2022 16:38
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the gains in the Copper futures bets. The speculative net position in the Copper futures rose this week by the largest one-week amount of the past seventeen weeks. Copper speculator positions have risen now for two straight weeks and in four out of the past five weeks as well. Spec bullish bets had previously fallen to an eighty-one week low for Copper on December 21st but have rebounded since then with gains in six out of the next eight weeks. This positive sentiment has helped push the speculator positioning to this week to the highest bullish level of the past fifteen weeks. Joining Copper (11,837 contracts) with rising positions this week were Gold (26,907 contracts), Silver (4,257 contracts) and Palladium (230 contracts) while Platinum (-1,627 contracts) saw lower speculator net contracts for the week. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,122,758 39 348,093 8 -392,000 80 43,907 77 Gold 558,645 35 213,613 56 -238,875 45 25,262 36 Silver 156,968 23 23,556 46 -36,348 63 12,792 17 Copper 210,089 34 30,692 64 -39,421 32 8,729 76 Palladium 8,358 9 -1,000 15 903 83 97 50 Platinum 59,897 22 10,132 16 -16,020 86 5,888 44 Natural Gas 1,098,101 0 -131,424 39 99,903 62 31,521 59 Brent 214,404 51 -26,325 73 22,279 27 4,046 64 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 856,917 58 216,732 84 -186,438 22 -30,294 20 Corn 1,607,591 39 414,492 83 -374,969 19 -39,523 20 Coffee 254,992 25 70,425 100 -75,230 1 4,805 22 Sugar 871,213 11 74,563 52 -90,388 51 15,825 27 Wheat 402,232 35 -5,846 42 10,013 51 -4,167 82   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 213,613 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 26,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 186,706 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 56.1 22.7 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.8 65.5 3.8 – Net Position: 213,613 -238,875 25,262 – Gross Longs: 313,269 126,837 46,689 – Gross Shorts: 99,656 365,712 21,427 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.1 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.7 44.7 35.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.7 -0.4 -2.4   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 23,556 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,299 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.3 35.9 16.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.2 59.1 7.8 – Net Position: 23,556 -36,348 12,792 – Gross Longs: 56,911 56,394 25,107 – Gross Shorts: 33,355 92,742 12,315 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.8 63.2 17.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 7.5 -1.5   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 30,692 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11,837 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,855 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.2 38.6 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.6 57.3 5.5 – Net Position: 30,692 -39,421 8,729 – Gross Longs: 84,415 81,004 20,249 – Gross Shorts: 53,723 120,425 11,520 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 64.5 32.4 75.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.9 -10.0 21.1   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 10,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,627 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,759 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 47.1 35.4 14.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.2 62.1 4.6 – Net Position: 10,132 -16,020 5,888 – Gross Longs: 28,217 21,179 8,661 – Gross Shorts: 18,085 37,199 2,773 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 3.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.3 86.1 44.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.9 -5.5 6.5   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 230 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,230 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.0 48.1 17.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 36.9 37.3 16.0 – Net Position: -1,000 903 97 – Gross Longs: 2,086 4,018 1,432 – Gross Shorts: 3,086 3,115 1,335 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.4 82.6 50.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.2 -13.2 14.7   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Bonds Speculators push their surging bearish bets in Eurodollars to 166-high

Bonds Speculators push their surging bearish bets in Eurodollars to 166-high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 19.02.2022 17:38
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT bonds data is the continued rise in the Eurodollar bearish bets. The speculative position in the Eurodollar futures has been dropping sharply with higher bearish bets since flipping over from bullish to bearish in May of 2021. The Eurodollar futures are the largest futures market with open interest normally over 10 million contracts each week and are used to make a bet on short-term interest rates (3-month Libor). A decline in Eurodollar futures shows an increase in (deposit) interest rates while an increase in Eurodollar futures shows the opposite. In times of stress (Great Financial Crisis, Covid Crisis), Eurodollar futures have surged higher and in times of normalization, Eurodollar futures usually trend downward. The speculators Eurodollar positioning has been on a downtrend and is currently at the most bearish level of the past one hundred and sixty-six weeks, dating back to December 11th of 2018. Joining the Eurodollar (-256,945 contracts) in falling this week were the 2-Year Bond (-104,328 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (-30,140 contracts), Fed Funds (-6,129 contracts), 5-Year Bond (-59,036 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-14,287 contracts) while increasing bets for the week were seen in the 10-Year Bond (27,847 contracts) and the Long US Bond (8,180 contracts). Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index Eurodollar 10,998,807 45 -2,293,237 0 2,731,451 100 -438,214 8 FedFunds 1,999,560 72 22,521 42 -3,214 59 -19,307 14 2-Year 2,207,292 17 -115,758 59 184,249 60 -68,491 15 Long T-Bond 1,239,190 56 -24,845 84 42,910 34 -18,065 38 10-Year 4,123,745 73 -174,063 45 436,449 77 -262,386 18 5-Year 4,084,291 52 -191,415 48 418,890 69 -227,475 19   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,293,237 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -256,945 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,036,292 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.6 75.3 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.5 50.5 7.9 – Net Position: -2,293,237 2,731,451 -438,214 – Gross Longs: 510,859 8,287,260 430,172 – Gross Shorts: 2,804,096 5,555,809 868,386 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 8.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.0 10.7 -11.9   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 22,521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,650 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.7 75.2 1.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.6 75.3 2.4 – Net Position: 22,521 -3,214 -19,307 – Gross Longs: 193,542 1,503,220 29,243 – Gross Shorts: 171,021 1,506,434 48,550 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.4 59.5 13.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.3 -12.5 -12.6   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -115,758 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -104,328 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,430 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.1 77.7 6.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.4 69.4 9.6 – Net Position: -115,758 184,249 -68,491 – Gross Longs: 289,318 1,715,204 142,310 – Gross Shorts: 405,076 1,530,955 210,801 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.9 60.1 14.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -31.9 34.4 0.2   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -191,415 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -59,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -132,379 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.7 79.5 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.4 69.2 12.1 – Net Position: -191,415 418,890 -227,475 – Gross Longs: 436,662 3,244,990 267,923 – Gross Shorts: 628,077 2,826,100 495,398 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.7 68.5 18.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 38.6 -31.5 8.6   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -174,063 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 27,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -201,910 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.8 73.7 7.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.0 63.1 14.0 – Net Position: -174,063 436,449 -262,386 – Gross Longs: 569,973 3,038,412 314,742 – Gross Shorts: 744,036 2,601,963 577,128 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.3 76.6 17.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.9 -9.8 -5.4   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 13,871 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30,140 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,011 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.8 73.5 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.9 64.5 18.4 – Net Position: 13,871 130,856 -144,727 – Gross Longs: 215,580 1,067,199 122,654 – Gross Shorts: 201,709 936,343 267,381 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.4 80.9 28.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -21.8 19.4 8.0   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -24,845 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,025 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.7 72.9 13.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.7 69.4 15.1 – Net Position: -24,845 42,910 -18,065 – Gross Longs: 133,138 902,892 169,162 – Gross Shorts: 157,983 859,982 187,227 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.5 33.8 38.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.9 5.0 -32.0   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -330,139 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -14,287 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -315,852 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.5 81.1 11.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.6 58.4 9.5 – Net Position: -330,139 298,631 31,508 – Gross Longs: 72,504 1,065,871 156,998 – Gross Shorts: 402,643 767,240 125,490 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.5 61.1 50.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -16.5 14.6 7.7   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Currency Speculators raise their Euro Futures bullish bets to 26-week high

COT Currency Speculators raise their Euro Futures bullish bets to 26-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 19.02.2022 18:38
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the gains in the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculators boosted their bullish bets for a second straight week this week and for the eighth time out of the past nine weeks. Over this nine-week time-frame, Euro bets have jumped by a total of +59,460 contracts, going from -10,162 net positions on December 21st to +47,581 net positions this week. These gains in the Euro sentiment have now brought the speculator positioning to the highest level in the past twenty-six weeks, dating back to August 17th. Joining the Euro (8,739 contracts) with positive changes this week were the US Dollar Index (1,621 contracts), Brazil real (3,514 contracts), Mexican peso (7,730 contracts),  British pound sterling (10,782 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,033 contracts), Russian ruble (721 contracts) and the Bitcoin futures (104 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-7,014 contracts), Canadian dollar (-2,716 contracts), Australian dollar (-953 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-316 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,283 77 35,386 87 -41,548 6 6,162 84 EUR 702,047 84 47,581 50 -85,057 52 37,476 36 GBP 195,302 36 2,237 76 2,874 31 -5,111 45 JPY 199,425 55 -66,162 26 86,256 79 -20,094 6 CHF 45,522 22 -9,715 53 18,888 52 -9,173 36 CAD 144,815 27 12,170 59 -15,116 47 2,946 36 AUD 192,578 77 -86,694 4 97,684 92 -10,990 26 NZD 64,105 71 -9,333 56 12,020 49 -2,687 21 MXN 151,098 26 8,974 31 -12,054 68 3,080 56 RUB 38,960 35 16,164 52 -17,239 46 1,075 64 BRL 67,288 85 23,760 100 -26,225 0 2,465 95 Bitcoin 10,646 56 -215 92 -213 0 428 23   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 35,386 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,765 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.0 5.0 14.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.8 81.5 3.2 – Net Position: 35,386 -41,548 6,162 – Gross Longs: 42,349 2,717 7,897 – Gross Shorts: 6,963 44,265 1,735 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 4.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.8 5.6 83.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.4 5.3 5.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 47,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,842 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.0 54.7 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.3 66.8 7.4 – Net Position: 47,581 -85,057 37,476 – Gross Longs: 217,899 383,827 89,120 – Gross Shorts: 170,318 468,884 51,644 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.6 51.7 36.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.1 -16.6 15.7   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,237 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,782 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,545 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.7 58.8 12.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.5 57.4 15.0 – Net Position: 2,237 2,874 -5,111 – Gross Longs: 50,151 114,901 24,257 – Gross Shorts: 47,914 112,027 29,368 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.6 31.4 45.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.8 -27.6 10.8   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -66,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,148 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.2 83.6 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.4 40.3 19.6 – Net Position: -66,162 86,256 -20,094 – Gross Longs: 10,425 166,645 18,973 – Gross Shorts: 76,587 80,389 39,067 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.2 79.0 6.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 0.7 5.2   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,399 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.0 72.6 19.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.4 31.2 39.2 – Net Position: -9,715 18,888 -9,173 – Gross Longs: 3,652 33,069 8,654 – Gross Shorts: 13,367 14,181 17,827 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.0 52.1 36.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.3 4.8 -11.9   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 12,170 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,886 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.6 40.4 19.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.2 50.9 17.5 – Net Position: 12,170 -15,116 2,946 – Gross Longs: 54,424 58,524 28,287 – Gross Shorts: 42,254 73,640 25,341 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.5 46.6 35.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.5 -16.4 0.9   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -86,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -953 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,741 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.1 81.0 10.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.1 30.2 15.9 – Net Position: -86,694 97,684 -10,990 – Gross Longs: 11,692 155,928 19,706 – Gross Shorts: 98,386 58,244 30,696 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.4 91.8 25.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.5 -2.3 1.1   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,366 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.9 55.3 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.4 36.5 8.6 – Net Position: -9,333 12,020 -2,687 – Gross Longs: 24,923 35,432 2,838 – Gross Shorts: 34,256 23,412 5,525 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.6 48.9 21.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.8 2.6 -13.7   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,974 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,730 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,244 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.4 56.0 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.4 64.0 2.1 – Net Position: 8,974 -12,054 3,080 – Gross Longs: 59,485 84,673 6,250 – Gross Shorts: 50,511 96,727 3,170 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 67.8 56.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.9 -8.0 3.0   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 23,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,514 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,246 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.1 16.5 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.8 55.5 2.4 – Net Position: 23,760 -26,225 2,465 – Gross Longs: 51,868 11,101 4,095 – Gross Shorts: 28,108 37,326 1,630 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 95.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 33.1 -36.1 31.8   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 16,164 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,443 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.8 42.2 6.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.4 86.4 4.2 – Net Position: 16,164 -17,239 1,075 – Gross Longs: 19,808 16,440 2,700 – Gross Shorts: 3,644 33,679 1,625 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.4 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.6 46.0 63.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.9 -19.2 -12.7   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 104 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -319 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.0 3.5 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 80.0 5.5 8.8 – Net Position: -215 -213 428 – Gross Longs: 8,307 369 1,364 – Gross Shorts: 8,522 582 936 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.2 22.8 22.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.5 -9.8 -6.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Bullish momentum remains strong

Bullish momentum remains strong

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 20.02.2022 17:36
Even at the last important low (US$$1,750) on December 15th, 2021, the sentiment was still awful as the sector had become the most hated asset class. Now fast-forward, gold has been successfully breaking out of its multi month triangle and keeps sprinting higher. The bulls currently are bending the daily and weekly Bollinger Bands to the upside, and seasonality is still supportive.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 20th, 2022.Looking at the weekly chart, it appears that gold not only broke out of a triangle consolidation pattern, but also out of a large inverse head and shoulder pattern. It’s not a textbook head and shoulder, but worthwhile noting. A measured move projection could theoretically take gold towards US$2,125! However, the monthly Bollinger Band, sitting at around US$ 1,975, might be a much more realistic target for the ongoing move. As you might remember, the zone between US$1,950 to US$1,975 is very strong resistance. We would not rule out a short-lived overshoot towards US$,2000, though.Overall, the weekly chart is not yet overbought and looks bullish. Hence, the rally has very good chances to continue for a few more weeks.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.As expected, the breakout above US$1,840 to US$1,850 has unleashed enough energy to quickly push gold prices towards the round psychological number of US$1,900. Fortunately, the daily stochastic has transformed its overboughtness into the rare “embedded status”, where both signal lines are sitting above 80 for more than three days in a row. Hence, the uptrend is locked-in and shorting this market would be fighting the uptrend.Of course, given the uncertain and complex geopolitical situation, events can and likely will strongly influence gold over the coming days and weeks. Speaking from a technical point of you, any pullback towards the breakout zone around US$1,845 would be a buying opportunity. However, prices below US$1,875 would already be a surprise in the short-term. On the contrary, it’s much more likely that gold will continue its run to at least US$1,930 over the coming days.In summary, the daily chart is bullish. Especially the bullish embedded stochastic oscillator likely will not allow any larger pullback, but rather a consolidation around US$1,900. Watch those two signal lines. Only if one of them would be dropping below 80on a daily close, the bull run might be over!GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.GDX, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold & gold related mining stocks often stabilize your portfolio during uncertain times and do act as a hedge. While the stock market continued its dive due to the crisis in Ukraine and the potential interest rate turnaround in the US, the GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF is up more than 21.5% since its low in mid of December. Over the last two weeks, the leading gold mining stocks recorded some of their best days in the last 12 months. Last week, Barrick Gold ($GOLD) jumped up more than 7% due to good earnings, a dividend increase, and a new share repurchase program. Some smaller gold stocks like Sabina Gold & Silver ($SGSVF) went up even more (+15% Friday, 11th).Now that gold is on the rise, it’s time for the beaten down and undervalued mining stocks to catch up. Usually, it starts with the big senior produces like Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle Mines ($AEM) and Newmont Corporation ($NEM), then the juniors like for example Victoria Gold Corp. ($VITFF) join and finally, the explorer and developers literally explode higher.However, the GDX has nearly reached its downtrend line as well as the 38.2% retracement of the whole corrective wave since August 2020. Hence, the big miners are running into string resistance and might need to consolidate soon.At the same time, note, that silver has been lagging. Silver always lags most of the time, but in the final stage of sector wide rally it suddenly passes all the other metals and shots up nearly vertically. That also typically is the sign that the rally in the sector is coming to an end. Obviously, we have not yet seen any strong silver days. Therefore, silver actually confirms that the sector has more room and time to run higher!Conclusion: Bullish momentum remains strongOverall, gold continues to look promising here as the bullish momentum remains strong. Hence, Gold is probably on the way towards US$1,950 and US$1,975, with a slight chance for an overshot to US$2,000. But of course, given the rather overbought daily chart, the risk/reward is not that good anymore. Silver and many of the smaller mining stocks, however, might still offer a chance to play the ongoing rally over the next few weeks. Once gold tops out in spring, expect a big pullback. Maybe even back towards the higher trending 200-day moving average (currently at US$1,808) at some point in midsummer. But that is all somewhere in the future. For now, the bullish momentum remains strong.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|February 20th, 2022|Tags: $GDXJ, Barrick Gold, GDX, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, gold fundamentals, Newmont Corporation, precious metals, Reyna Gold, Sabina Gold & Silver, Silver, silver bull, US-Dollar, Victoria Gold|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
Decentralized Autonomous Organisation - Another Addition To Our Personal Dictionaries

Summing Up The Previous Week: Cardano (ADA), Ether And The First Cryptocurrency Decreased By Ca. 10%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 21.02.2022 08:24
Last week, BTC repeated the dynamics of the first ten days of February. The rate strengthened on Monday-Tuesday, and on Wednesday, it exceeded the level of $44,800. Then on Thursday, the price began to fall sharply in unison with stock indices. The decrease in risky assets was caused by the growing tension around Ukraine, where the situation is becoming tenser. On Friday, Bitcoin continued to fall, briefly dropping below the round level of $40,000. This mark was broken on Sunday, and BTC tested the next support level at $38,000. The situation is aggravated by the increase in cryptocurrency sales by miners. As a result, the bears may try to push the price to $36,000 and even $33,000. Today, on hopes of a political de-escalation, BTCUSD is up 2.5%, trying to cling to levels above $39,000. I must say that bitcoin has lost all the growth of February over the past week. In addition to the upcoming Fed rate hike, BTC has been hit by growing geopolitical risks. In addition to this, the founder of Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin, noted that he sees early signs of the onset of crypto winter. This spurred crypto sales among retail investors over the weekend. However, ETHUSD is up 5.3% on Monday, recouping Sunday's decline and continuing to struggle to close the third month in the red. Overall, Bitcoin was down 9.2% over the past week, ending it at around $38,300. Ethereum lost 9.7%, other leading altcoins from the top ten also sank: from 3.3% (Avalanche) to 11% (Cardano). The total capitalization of the crypto market fell by 7% in a week, to $1.82 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index fell 0.7% to 40%, due to less weakening of altcoins. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index lost another 2 points to 25 on Monday, returning to the extreme fear territory.
GBPUSD Chart - Green Candles On The Right Hand Side, USDCAD Moved Down A Little

GBPUSD Chart - Green Candles On The Right Hand Side, USDCAD Moved Down A Little

John Benjamin John Benjamin 21.02.2022 08:53
GBPUSD tests resistance The sterling edged higher after January’s retail sales beat expectations. The recent pause has been an opportunity for the bulls to accumulate. A break above 1.3640 would signal solid buying after previous failed attempts. The daily resistance at 1.3750 would be the next hurdle. Its breach could trigger a broader reversal in the weeks to come. 1.3560 is the immediate support. And 1.3490 at the lower end of the horizontal consolidation is the second line of defense in case the pair needs to attract more support. USDCAD awaits breakout The Canadian dollar tanked after disappointing retail sales in December. The US counterpart is still struggling below the supply zone around 1.2800. A close above this daily resistance could propel the pair to last December’s high at 1.2950, a prerequisite for a bullish continuation in the medium-term. The current sideways action is a sign of indecision. 1.2640 is the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range. A bearish breakout would bring the greenback to a previous low at 1.2560. EURJPY struggles for support The Japanese yen rallies amid growing risk aversion across the board. The euro continues to shed gains from the surge earlier this month. A fall below 131.90 triggered profit-taking, and the latest rally came out to be a dead cat bounce after it was capped by this support-turned-resistance. A break below 130.40 (which sits over the 30-day moving average) shows fragility in market sentiment and would cause another round of sell-off. 129.20 at the base of the bullish impetus would be the next support.
Kind Of A Small Downtrend Visible On DAX Chart

Kind Of A Small Downtrend Visible On DAX Chart

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 21.02.2022 10:43
The geopolitical momentum of the escalation/truce situation around Ukraine strikingly has its weekly cycles. Harsh rhetoric seems to peak at the end of the week, followed by the weekend’s relief when the sides look for ways to negotiate, giving a breath of air to global markets early in the week. This week, the same pattern applies with demand for EM currencies and European indices returning to their starting positions before Friday’s collapse. The announced talks between the Russian and US foreign ministers and the chances of a summit between Biden and Putin bring back hopes of a peaceful resolution. However, it is worth realising that the situation remains fragile, and so far, with each new cycle of this momentum, the present situation has become more dramatic. And this is visible in the dynamics of the European indices, where the DAX formed a double top in January and in February began to churn in line with the geopolitical background, maintaining a downward bias and approaching a critical support level that has been in place since last May. The pressure on the DAX to consolidate under the 15,000 mark is occurring on two fronts at once. Firstly, geopolitical tensions are reducing the traction in risky assets of the European region. In addition, fears of energy supply disruptions in the EU due to Russia form the background, with high oil and gas prices holding back the economic recovery. Secondly, the monetary policy outlook continues to be reassessed. ECB officials are talking more and more confidently about a rate hike this year and leaving the door open for such a move as early as September. If the bears manage to push the DAX below the nine-month support, we might see an acceleration of the corrective pullback that could take the index down to 14000 within the next couple of weeks. If the politicians’ rhetoric doesn’t seem to be easing, the next target for a retracement might be the 13000-area, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the extremes of March 2020 and November 2021.
Trade Zone Week Ahead with David Floyd (Aspen Trading): 21st – 25th February - 21.02.2022

Trade Zone Week Ahead with David Floyd (Aspen Trading): 21st – 25th February - 21.02.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 21.02.2022 08:36
We begin to wrap up David Floyd’s coverage of the Eightcap Trade Zone this February, as he tackles this week’s trading week ahead and notes the levels we should be taking note of as markets open today. If you trade the S&P500, or have an interest in Forex pairs you won’t want to miss his latest insight! David Floyd is the Founder of Aspen Trading Group. He started his career in the trading industry in 1993. His focus eventually shifted to equities and spent the next years trading on a proprietary equities desk. In 2002, Floyd started Aspen Trading and has grown from a pure prop trading firm into becoming the leading provider of expert FX research and analytics worldwide. With over two decades of expertise in global fundamentals and technical analysis, Floyd has been profiled in RealVision TV, CNBC, and Bloomberg. Important Data Releases & Events this Week Monday EUR Manufacturing PMIs from Germany, France and Eurozone USD Bank holiday in observance of US Presidents’ Day GBP Manufacturing and Services PMI from UK Tuesday EUR German Ifo Business USD Consumer Confidence (CB), Flash Services and Manufacturing PMIs and S&P/CS House Price Index Wednesday NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, Rate Statement and Press Conference Friday USD Preliminary GDP, unemployment claims and new home sales GBP BOE Gov Bailey speaks EUR ECB President Lagarde speaks Saturday USD Fed Monetary Policy Report The post Trade Zone Week Ahead with David Floyd (Aspen Trading): 21st – 25th February appeared first on Eightcap.
Technical Analysis: Moving Averages - Did You Know This Tool?

S&P 500 Chart And Credit Markets Candles Nears Quite Low Levels

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 21.02.2022 13:33
S&P 500 opening upswing gave way to more selling, but credit markets didn‘t lead to the downside on a daily basis. This tells me the plunge would likely be challenged shortly. As in facing a reversal attempt – it‘s that junk bonds for all the recent (and still to come) deterioration, will probably rebound a little next. Value already retraced part of Friday‘s decline – it‘s just tech that didn‘t yet react to the Treasuries reprieve. Good to have taken short profits off the table. The table is set for S&P 500 to rise, and for bonds to rally somewhat. And that wouldn‘t be the result of war tensions lifting up Treasuries, gold and oil. Red hot inflation, decelerating growth and compressing yield curve are a challenging environment, and the odds of a 50bp Mar rate hike are overwhelming, but the Fed‘s balance sheet is still rising – now within spitting distance of $9T. Sure they will take on inflation, but I continue to think that by autumn they would be forced to reverse course, and start easing. Fresh stimulus after markets protest during 1H 2022? Would be helpful for the midterms... The consumer isn‘t in a great shape as the confidence data reveal – and that‘s also reflected in the direction of discretionaries vs. staples. Inflation is pinching, and the pressure on the Fed to act, is on – its credibility is being challenged. Food inflation is high, and seeing food at home prices rising this much, is as surefire marker of coming recession as yield curve inversion is. And yield differentials are flattening around the world – quite a few central banks are more ahead in the tightening path than the Fed. Economy slowing down, stock market correction far from over (yes, in spite of the coming rebound, I‘m looking for lower lows still), and precious metals upleg underway – yes, underway, and especially our gold profits can keep rising - as I wrote on Friday: (…) With gold at $1,900 again and silver approaching $24, copper‘s fate is also brightening – the miners‘ continued outperformance is a very good sign. With crude oil taking a breather, the inflationary pressures aren‘t at least increasing, but don‘t look for the Bullard or other statements to defeat inflation – I‘m standing by the 4-5% official rate CPI data for 2022 (discussed in yesterday‘s summary). CPI might turn out even a full percentage point higher – depends upon the hedonics and substitution massaging. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 caught a little buying interest going into the long weekend – better days though look to be coming. Not a monstrous rally, but still an upswing. Credit Markets HYG is indeed basing, and will help stocks move higher next. LQD and TLT are already rising, and there is still somewhat more to come. Bonds have simply deteriorated too fast in 2022, and need a breather. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals fireworks continue – we‘re getting started, and $1,920 is the next stop. Kiss of life from the bond market reprieve comes next, on top of all the other factors I‘ve talked about recently. Crude Oil Crude oil is fairly well bid, but the war jitters are helping it out (as in staving off a bit deeper correction). As both oil and base metals are rising, inflation isn‘t likely to slow down (perhaps later in summer?) - black gold‘s uptrend isn‘t over really. Copper Copper keeps going sideways in a volatile fashion, and can be counted on to break higher – inflationary pressures aren‘t abating, and outweigh the slowing economy. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos did break down over the weekend, but the anticipated risk-on rebound fizzled out a bit too fast – as said on Friday, the bears have the upper hand now. Summary S&P 500 appears on the verge of trying to swing higher, and credit markets would be leading the charge as tech finally turns. Value had trouble declining some more on Friday already. Stock market upswing though wouldn‘t throw the precious metals bulls off balance – not too many weeks have passed since I was at the turn of the year predicting that gold (and silver with miners implied) would be the bullish surprise of 2022 – and for all the talk and preemtive tightening in the credit markets, we haven‘t yet seen the Fed move. Anyway, such a lag in moving the Fed funds rate higher, is normal these decades – we are a long way from the early 1980s when the delay between say 2-year Treasury and Fed funds rate move was some 2 months. Crude oil is likewise going to keep rising, and the same goes naturally for copper following in the footsteps. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Markets News: Crude Oil, Gold, EuroStoxx 600, Copper

Analysing Macro, The Conflict In Eastern Europe, Standard And Poor 500 And US100

Purple Trading Purple Trading 21.02.2022 12:53
The Swing Overview – Week 7 Macroeconomic events last week had a secondary impact on market volatility. The "big story" that is currently moving the markets is the situation in Ukraine. Equity indices weakened and retested their strong supports. Last week's winner, on the other hand, is the gold, which, due to these geopolitical uncertainties, surprisingly strengthened to USD 1,900 per ounce, where it last traded in June 2021.   Macroeconomic data from the US  US industrial inflation on an annual basis came in at 9.7%, up from 9.8% in the previous month. This is the first decline in industrial inflation since April 2020. Retail sales reported very strong data, rising 3.8% in January (previous month was down 2.5%).  In the labor market, there was an unexpected increase in initial jobless claims of 248k (expectations were for a 219k increase). FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday did not indicate that the Fed was seriously considering a 0.50% rate hike in March. This gave the markets and risk currencies a temporary boost, but the main driver of the markets last week was the situation in Ukraine. Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine Last week Friday, when Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, warned that Russia could attack Ukraine "any day now", sent stock indices into the red and investors focused on so-called "save havens" such as the US bonds and the gold, which rallied strongly. In contrast, commodity currencies, stock indices and cryptocurrencies, which are seen as risky assets, weakened. This suggests what might happen if an invasion actually took place. At the moment, however, both sides seem to be open to diplomatic solution of the crisis. This brings some relief and cautious optimism even though further developments are unclear.  Let’s have a look at how the US bond yields are reacting to the situation: Figure 1: 10 year government bond yield on the 4H chart and the USD index on the daily chart Demand for these bonds has been rising as investors view the US government bonds as a "save haven" in times of uncertainty. This increases the price of these bonds. Since there is an inverse relationship between the price of bonds and their interest yield, a rise in the price of bonds then pushes down their yields. This explains why the yield on these bonds fell on Friday last week as a result of the news of a possible Russian attack.   Overall, however, yields on these bonds continue to rise as investors anticipate a rise in the US interest rates. This in turn has had a negative effect on the technology stocks in the NASDAQ index in particular.   NASDAQ a SP500 Figure 2: The US NASDAQ index on H4 and D1 chart The NASDAQ started last week on Friday with a significant decline as the other indices.  Then there was a correction of this decline as news emerged that Russia was withdrawing some of its troops from the Ukrainian border and that military exercises were over. However, the next report was that the US was not seeing any change at the border with Ukraine and the NASDAQ index fell again. The current situation is that both sides have agreed to further negotiations.  It can be seen from this how sensitive the indices are to such news. We therefore recommend that our clients keep an eye on any breaking news that emerges in relation to the situation in Ukraine.  The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 14,606 - 14,673. The next resistance is then 15050 - 15100.  Support according to the H4 chart is at 14,050 - 14,100.  Significant support according to the daily chart is at 13,750-13,950.  As for the US SP 500 index, the situation is similar here.   Figure 3: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart The nearest resistance is at 4,471 – 4,491. The next strong resistance is in the area at 4,580 - 4,600.  Support according to the H4 chart is at 4,357 – 4,367. According to the daily chart, significant support is at 4,225 - 4,300.   German DAX index Germany reported ZEW economic sentiment, which came in at 54.3 (previous month 51.7). This indicates an improving outlook for the German economy over the next six months. However, this index was under pressure last week as were the US indices.  Figure 4: The DAX on H4 and daily chart  On February 14, the index fell to 14,841, where the previous support is. The zone of this strong support according to the daily chart is quite wide: 14,800 - 15,000. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is 15,440 - 15,530. The next resistance then immediately follows this zone and is in the 15 534 - 15 617 range.   The EUR/USD under pressure The EURUSD has shown that in times of political uncertainty, this pair tends to weaken. The decline was justified in terms of technical analysis by the false break of the resistance, which is in the area of 1.1465 - 1.1480. Figure 5: EURUSD on H4 and daily chart The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is in the area of 1.1380 - 1.1400. Support according to the H4 chart is at 1.1280 - 1.1300. Very strong support according to the daily chart is then at 1.1120 - 1.1140.   The Gold The gold surprised last week with unexpected strength based on the situation around Ukraine. News that Russia may attack Ukraine any day has caused the gold price to rise. It eventually reached $1,900 per troy ounce, where it last traded in June 2021.  Figure 6: The gold on the H4 and D1 chart The nearest resistance according to the daily chart is USD 1,900 - 1,916 per troy ounce of gold.  The nearest support is 1,872 - 1,878. The most significant support is then at 1 845 - 1 852 USD per troy ounce. Once geopolitical tensions calm down and US government bond yields continue to rise, this should be negative news for gold. 
Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD falls back under $1,900 after setting fresh multi-month highs near-$1,910

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD falls back under $1,900 after setting fresh multi-month highs near-$1,910

FXStreet News FXStreet News 21.02.2022 16:08
Gold hit fresh multi-month highs near the $1,910 on Monday but has since dropped back under the $1,900 handle. Geopolitics remains the wildcard that could stoke surprise volatility in either a bullish or bearish direction. Spot gold (XAU/USD) prices hit fresh multi-month highs near $1,910 on Monday during Asia Pacific session, but have again failed to hold north of the $1,900 handle. In recent trade, the precious metal has been caught going sideways in the mid-$1,890s, with the prospect for a fresh push higher again on Monday limited by the lack of market volume stateside. US markets are shut on Monday for Presidents Day so it is likely to be a very quiet US session. Geopolitics remains the wildcard that could stoke surprise volatility in either a bullish or bearish direction. The Russian rouble has been coming under significant pressure on Monday, indicative of rising fears of a Russian invasion/military incursion into Ukraine that would trigger a round of sanctions from Western countries against Moscow. Violence between pro-Russia separatists and Ukraine’s military in the contested Donbass region continued on Monday, the former group upping the inflammatory rhetoric by accusing Ukraine’s military of shelling and planning a full-scale assault. This is keeping gold underpinned close to recent highs. At current levels in the mid-$1,890s, the precious metal trades close to flat on the day and only about 0.75% below earlier session highs. One bearish risk to note for gold is whether a summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden goes ahead this week following recent chatter. The meeting could be a good opportunity to ease tensions somewhat. Otherwise, US data and Fed speak will be worth watching, but will, for the most part, still play second fiddle to the Ukraine crisis.
Emini S&P MARCH we wrote: making a pattern of lower high & lower lows – so…

Emini S&P MARCH we wrote: making a pattern of lower high & lower lows – so…

Jason Sen Jason Sen 22.02.2022 09:05
we will see if this bearish trend continues this week...Further losses look likely to 4270/65... The index collapsed exactly as predicted to the 4270/65 target. Nasdaq MARCH we wrote: the sellers returned but we remain in a short term negative trend so I believe that risks are to the downside. Down we go as predicted to retest the January low at 13730/700. Emini Dow Jones MARCH volatile with no clear trend or pattern. We could be building a head & shoulders reversal pattern but we are a long way off completion. Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P collapsed to my target of 4270/65 before incredibly important support at 4195/4185. A break below here could trigger another 15% correction to the downside. Minor resistance at 4290/4300 then strong resistance at 4350/60. Shorts need stops above 4370. A break higher targets 4395/4400. Nasdaq broke lower as expected through 14200/150 & 13900/850 to retest the January low at 13730/700. Holding below here could trigger another 700 point loss to 13000/12950. Along the way look for 13500/450. If bulls can get the index to hold above 13700 in oversold conditions they can trigger a bounce to 13950/980, perhaps as far as 14100/150. Emini Dow Jones broke 34000/33950 to target 33650/600, perhaps as far as support at 33200/33000. Watch for a low for the day. Strong resistance at 33900/34000 could see a high for the day. Shorts need stops above 34150. A break higher initially targets 34350, perhaps as far as 34500. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
UK100 Price Trades Below Levels Of The Week Before, Silver Price Raised Noticeably

UK100 Price Trades Below Levels Of The Week Before, Silver Price Raised Noticeably

John Benjamin John Benjamin 22.02.2022 08:59
USDCHF tests daily support The Swiss franc surges as the US-Russia stalemate boosts demand for safe haven assets. Consecutive drops below 0.9220 and then 0.9180 suggest that sellers have taken control. The greenback is heading towards January’s double bottom around 0.9110. A break below this key floor would trigger a deeper correction towards the psychological level of 0.9000. The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a temporary rebound. The support-turned-resistance at 0.9220 is the level to break to give the bulls any hope of recovery. XAGUSD bounces higher Bullion rallies over ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. Silver gained momentum after a break above the supply zone at 23.90. A brief fallback found support over 23.10 which indicates solid buying interest. The price is grinding up along a rising trendline and sentiment remains upbeat as long as it stays above the congestion area near the trendline and 23.60. January’s peak at 24.70 is the target when volatility picks up again. A bullish breakout could trigger a broader reversal in the weeks to come. UK 100 struggles for support The FTSE 100 tumbles as risk appetite slips across the board. The bulls’ latest effort to push beyond 7630 turned out to be futile. A break below 7500 suggests a lack of commitment and weighs on short-term sentiment. Intraday traders have switched sides and look to fade the next bounce towards the former support. A dip below 7430 has opened the door to 7330 as the next target. Further down, the daily support at 7240 would be a major level to keep the uptrend intact in the medium term.
What Are The Effects Of Russian Political Moves? Raise Of The Oil Price Is Not The Only One

What Are The Effects Of Russian Political Moves? Raise Of The Oil Price Is Not The Only One

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.02.2022 10:06
The beginning of Monday in Russia was quite positive: the ruble strengthened, reacting to the announcement of the summit of the leaders of Russia and the United States, mediated by France. The situation deteriorated sharply after the heads of the DPR and LPR turned to Putin with a request to recognize the independence of the republics. Over the weekend, the situation in the LDNR deteriorated sharply: on Friday, the evacuation of citizens to the Russian Federation was announced. Towards the evening, President Putin held an extraordinary extended meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation on the recognition of the LPR and DPR. Oil quotes rose noticeably on Monday, reacting to the likely imposition of sanctions against Russia, the world's leading oil producer. Restrictions may lead to interruptions in the supply of raw materials, further exacerbating its market shortage. Prices for Brent oil updated the highs of 2014, adding three dollars, and by the end of the day rose above $97 per barrel. Low-liquid trades aggravated the situation due to the holiday in the USA. While Europe admits that it cannot do without energy and resources from Russia, the banking sector is under attack. Trading volumes on Monday were record-breaking, which indicates the withdrawal of large players from the market. It is also worth paying attention to retailers and technology companies, which may find it difficult to work abroad or import goods and technologies. These sectors will show the most volatility depending on how events unfold. The current situation is tightening financial conditions for Russian companies, destabilizing markets and reducing business predictability. The volatility of the ruble and the closure of the Russian market for global capital will hurt the economy, probably sending it into decline in the coming quarters. In the long term, this threatens to reduce growth potential, which is already lower than that of many developed countries. Such conditions translate for the population into a drop in living standards through a decrease in real incomes or (at best) a dramatic slowdown in their growth.
Dax 40 shorts at first resistance at 15170/200 worked perfectly yesterday…

Dax 40 shorts at first resistance at 15170/200 worked perfectly yesterday…

Jason Sen Jason Sen 22.02.2022 09:05
& at last the index broke lower - how long have I been waiting for this move!!?? The break below 15050/15000 was a serious sell signal & exactly as predicted we collapsed quickly to 14830/800, 14680/650 & almost as far as 14350/300 with a low for the day just 33 ticks above. EuroStoxx 50 MARCH we wrote: a break below 4060 can retest 4000/3990. A break below here targets 3900/3880. Targets all hit with a low for the day exactly at 3900. FTSE 100 MARCH could be building a short term head & shoulders pattern. A break below 7400 would confirm & trigger a sell signal with a 200 tick drop the measured target. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Dax has very strong support at 14350/300. Longs need stops below 14250. An unexpected break lower however targets strong longer term moving average support at 14050/13950. We could see a good recovery having held important support at 14350/300 targeting 14600/650. If we continue higher expected very strong resistance at 14800/850 today. Shorts need stops above 14900. A break higher can target strong resistance at 15100/150. EuroStoxx a low for the day exactly at important support at 3900/3880. A break below 3860 is therefore an important medium term sell signal initially targeting 3810/00 & 3750/40. Holding important support at 3900/3880 allows a recovery to resistance at 3990/4000. Shorts need stops above 4020. A break higher can target resistance at 4080/90. FTSE saw a high for the day exactly at first resistance at 7510/30. The index collapsed to 7440/20 & 7350. Further losses meet strong support at 7310/00 today. Longs need stops below 7270. First resistance at 7410/20. Very strong resistance at 7450/60. Shorts need stops above 7490. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
Crypto Airdrop - Explanation - How Does It Work?

Bitcoin we wrote: bulls are unable to keep control of this market - A break below 40300 is a sell signal. We have the medium term sell signal now targeting 38000/37500 then 36400/36000 & 34000.

Jason Sen Jason Sen 22.02.2022 09:05
Ripple we wrote: holding below 7900/7850 can target 7500 before strong support at 7100/7050. Longs need stops below 6950. Strong support at 7100/7050 also broken for the next sell signal. Ethereum we wrote: breaks minor support at 3000/2970 & now breaks support at 2840/00 to target 2590/2550, probably as far as the 500 day moving average at 2450/2400. Almost there! Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis Bitcoin breaks 40800/500 for a medium term sell signal in the 3 month bear trend initially targeting 38000/37500 then 36400/36000 (just hit as I write) & 34000. Do not be surprised to see a test of the 100 week moving average at 32600/450. Gains are likely to be limited in the bear trend with first resistance at 39400/450. Further resistance at 40900/41000. Shorts need stops above 42200. Ripple break of strong support at 7100/7050 is our next sell signal targeting 6600/6550. Longs look too risky!! Further losses test very important 100 week moving average support at 6190/6160. Longs need stops below 6100. A break lower quickly targets 5800. Gains are likely to be limited in the bear trend with resistance at 7080/90, 7300/7350 & 7460/90. Ethereum breaks minor support at 3000/2970 t& now breaks support at 2840/00 to target 2590/2550, probably as far as the 500 day moving average at 2450/2400 this week. This MA held the low in January so bet on a bounce from here if you think the same can happen again. However a break below 2350 should therefore be quite a serious sell signal in the bear trend. Gains are likely to be limited with resistance at 2800/2850 & 2970/3000. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
The Crypto Market Leader Leaved $40k And Trades Ca. $4-5k Lower

The Crypto Market Leader Leaved $40k And Trades Ca. $4-5k Lower

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.02.2022 10:28
Losing for the sixth day in a row, bitcoin is approaching a retest of the intermediate round level of 35,000, near which buyers became more active at the end of last month. A further decline could open a direct road to the 30,000 area, where the coin was bought back twice in 2021. Given the changed macroeconomic conditions and the pressure on risky assets, will the crypto remain as interesting at these same levels? Cryptocurrencies once again fell under geopolitical pressure, although a relatively small decline was caused by the absence of major US players due to a holiday in the US. And again, risky assets, from stocks to digital currencies, collapsed with the aggravation of the situation around Ukraine, where investors fear conflict in Eastern Europe. Against this background, one of the world's largest hedge funds, Man Group, called bitcoin a risky asset, as indicated by the growing correlation of BTC with the Nasdaq stock index. Black Swan author Nassim Taleb criticized bitcoin as a hedge, calling it "the perfect game for losers" in an environment of low interest rates. Huobi co-founder Du Jun expects bitcoin to rise to new highs no earlier than 2025, basing his assumptions on halving-related price cycles. Bitcoin was down 3.1% on Monday, ending the day near $37,100, continuing to drop moderately on Tuesday morning to $36,700. Ethereum lost 3%, falling back to $2,500, while other top-ten altcoins also mostly sank: from 4.9 % (Binance Coin) to 7.1% (Solana). The exception was Terra, which posted a 3.8% increase. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, fell by 7.3% over the day, to $1.66 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index rose from 41.7% to 42.2% due to a sharper decline in altcoins. The fear and greed index lost 5 points to 20, deepening into a state of "extreme fear."
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/2/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/2/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 22.02.2022 11:48
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/2/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 1,621 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,979 contracts and an increase in short positions by 358 contracts. Growth in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound and the New Zealand dollar. Decrease in total net positions occurred in the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, and the Swiss franc. In the event of a Russian invasion to Ukraine, markets would move into risk-off sentiment. This means that investors would sell risk assets, which include stock indices, and shift their resources into assets that are considered as safe havens in such situations, which include US government bonds and gold. In currency terms, this means that the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc in particular could then appreciate in such a situation. Commodity currencies (especially AUD, NZD) might weaken. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators Date USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399 Feb 01, 2022 34571 29716 -23605 -79829 -11698 -60640 18264 -8239 Jan 25, 2022 36861 31560 -7763 -83273 -10773 -68273 12317 -8796 Jan 18, 2022 36434 24584 -247 -88454 -8331 -80879 7492 -10810 Jan 11, 2022 37892 6005 -29166 -91486 -8604 -87525 -7376 -7660 Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the end of this report. Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Bullish Feb 01, 2022 685431 213563 183847 29716 2479 155 1999 -1844 Weak bullish Jan 25, 2022 682952 213408 181848 31560 -8930 1507 -5469 6976 Bullish Jan 18, 2022 691882 211901 187317 24584 9589 7540 -11039 18579 Bullish Jan 11, 2022 682293 204361 198356 6005 4075 5288 -2271 7559 Bullish         Total change 23829 18826 -30309 49135     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 47,581 contracts last week, up by 8,739 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,074 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 9,813 contracts. Total net speculators positions have increased by 49,135 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators closing 30,309 short positions and adding 18,826 long positions. This data suggests continued bullish sentiment for the euro. However, the rising open interest, which increased by 1,949 contracts in the last week, shows the opposite, as the euro fell down last week and this decline is supported by the rising number of open interest contracts. So more bearish traders were in the market. So we have conflicting information here. The euro weakened slightly last week on fears of an escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Long-term resistance: 1.1461 – 1.15 Support: 1.1280 - 1.1300. Next support is near 1.1220 - 1.1240. A strong support is in 1.1120-1.1140. The British Pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 184007 29597 53202 -23605 1967 -7069 8773 -15842 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 182040 36666 44429 -7763 -1194 -3094 4422 -7516 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 183234 39760 40007 -247 -17259 9254 -19665 28919 Weak bearish Jan 11, 2022 200493 30506 59672 -29166 486 4526 -5479 10005 Weak bearish         Total change -4705 24171 -17237 41408     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 2,237 contracts last week, up by 10,782 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions of 5,442 contracts and a decrease in short positions of 5,340 contracts. Total net positions have increased by 41,408 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exiting 17,237 short positions and adding 24,171 long positions. This data suggests bullish sentiment for the pound. Open interest, which fell by 2,646 contracts last week, is indicating that the bullish price action that occurred in the pound last week was not supported by volume and therefore it is weak. Risk off sentiment in US equities could have a negative effect on the Pound as well as the Euro, which could then send the Pound towards support which is at 1.3380. Long-term resistance: 1.3620-1.3640. Next resistance is near 1.3680 – 1.3750. Support: 1.3490 – 1.3520. A next support is near 1.3320 – 1.3380 and then mainly in the zone near 1.3200. The Australian dollar   Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish Feb 01, 2022 196913 18835 98664 -79829 6893 3714 270 3444 Weak bearish Jan 25, 2022 190020 15121 98394 -83273 8884 6070 889 5181 Weak bearish Jan 18, 2022 181136 9051 97505 -88454 -4317 -3332 -6364 3032 Weak bearish Jan 11, 2022 185453 12383 103869 -91486 5346 -249 1871 -2120 Bearish         Total change 12471 -940 -3612 2672     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1 Total net speculator positions last week reached -86,694 contracts, down 953 contracts from the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions of 5,631 contracts and a decrease in short positions of 4,678 contracts. This data suggests continued bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar, which is confirmed by the downtrend. Total net positions have increased by 2,672 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exit of 3,612 short contracts while exiting 940 long contracts at the same time. However, last week saw a decrease in open interest of 3,825 contracts. This means that the upward price action that occurred last week was weak in terms of volume because new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar is very sensitive to the international geopolitical situation. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalates, we can expect it to weaken especially on the AUDUSD pair and also the AUDJPY. Long-term resistance: 0.7200-0.7250 and especially near 0.7270-0.7310. Long-term support: 0.7085-0.7120. A strong support is near 0.6960 – 0.6990. The New Zealand dollar   Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 58467 19205 30903 -11698 5151 3257 4182 -925 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 53316 15948 26721 -10773 8589 4336 6778 -2442 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 44727 11612 19943 -8331 2661 652 379 273 Weak bearish Jan 11, 2022 42066 10960 19564 -8604 1764 1543 1302 241 Weak bearish         Celková změna 23803 15506 15994 -488     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached a negative value last week - 9,333 contracts, having increased by 1,033 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 7,755 contracts and an increase in short positions by 6,722 contracts. This data suggests that the bearish sentiment for the New Zealand Dollar continues, but has started to weaken over the past week. Total net positions have declined by 488 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators adding 15,994 short positions and adding 15,506 long positions. Open interest rose significantly last week, increasing by 9,228 contracts. The rise in the NZDUSD price action that occurred last week is therefore supported by volume and therefore the move was strong. The reason for the NZD strengthening last week is that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to raise interest rates to 1% on Feb 23, 2022. However, if the conflict in Ukraine escalates further, the NZDUSD could more likely weaken. The reason for the NZDUSD's decline from a technical analysis perspective could also be that the NZDUSD price has reached horizontal resistance and also the upper downtrend line from the daily chart. Long-term resistance: 0.6700 – 0.6740 and then 0.6850 – 0.6890. Long-term support: 0.6590-0.6600 and the next support is at 0.6500 – 0.6530. Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Explained: When bonds and stocks trade in tandem and when the correlation is inverse

Explained: When bonds and stocks trade in tandem and when the correlation is inverse

FXStreet News FXStreet News 22.02.2022 15:58
In times of trouble, bonds are seen as a safe haven and yields fall with stocks.Normally, lower yields boost stocks, an inverse correlation.Understanding the situation is key to trading markets. Could you explain to me the relationship between the movement of 10-year US government bonds and US stock indices? This is a question we have received from a user and the answer is complicated – it depends on the current market focus.Markets are currently in times of trouble, with Russia and Ukraine apparently on the brink of war. Every negative headline prompts investors to sell stocks and buy bonds – moving yields down. So, yields and shares move in tandem. One example is the announcement by Russian President Vladimir Putin about the recognition of the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Every optimistic headline sends money to stocks and away from Treasuries, pushing yields up, alongside equities. Examples include announcements of high or top-level meetings trying to resolve the situation. Headline-driven markets tend to experience this straightforward correlation between yields and stocks.However, the correlation is inverse when fear of war does not grip markets. In such situations, investors focus on the Federal Reserve. If they think there is a higher chance of more rate hikes, they sell both stocks and bonds – with yields rising to reflect expectations of elevated borrowing costs. Statements about the need for a 50 bps rate hike or strong economic data are examples of such behavior. When some Fed official says the path of rate hikes is slower, investors are happy to push yields lower by buying bonds and they also purchase stocks, which have a bigger advantage when the comparative safe investment in Treasuries results in a lower yield. A comment by a Fed official about settling for a standard 25 bps rate hike triggers such a reaction. Normal markets tend to experience an inverse correlation between bonds and stocks.
Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD underpinned above $1900 as Russia/Ukraine crisis escalates

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD underpinned above $1900 as Russia/Ukraine crisis escalates

FXStreet News FXStreet News 22.02.2022 15:58
After hitting fresh multi-month highs at $1914, spot gold is consolidating above $1900 as the Russia/Ukraine crisis escalates.As traders worry about the rising risk of a full-scale Russian military incursion into Ukraine, gold will likely remain supported.As the Russia/Ukraine crisis continues to escalate, most recently with Russia recognising the independence of and moving troops into two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, prompting NATO nations to announce/prepare new sanctions on Russia, gold has moved back above $1900. Spot prices (XAU/USD) hit fresh multi-month highs at $1914 on Tuesday and, though pulling back from these highs printed during Asia pacific trade as dip-buying facilitating an intra-day rebound in global equities markets, has remained above the key $1900 level.With market participants nervous that Russia/pro-Russia separatists in Eastern Ukraine could initiate further hostilities against Ukraine, thus further escalating the risk of an all-out Ukraine/Russia conflict, gold is likely to remain well underpinned this week. Brent oil spiked to close to $100 per barrel on Tuesday and EU natural gas prices were up sharply as Germany pledged not to approve the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that would bring gas directly to Germany from Russia. The upside risks posed to global inflation from any continued spike in energy prices as a result of further Russia/Ukraine crisis escalation is likely boosting demand for gold as an inflation hedge.Recent Fed speak and US data releases have not had much of an impact on gold in recent days as price action takes its cue from geopolitics. Hawkish commentary from Fed’s Michelle Bowman on Monday, who essentially said she was still undecided as the whether the Fed should hike rates by 25 or 50bps in March, was roundly shrugged off. That suggests that other Fed speak this week is also likely to be ignored, or, at least, play second fiddle, with this also likely the case for Friday’s January US Core PCE inflation data. Ahead of that, traders should keep an eye on upcoming US PMI and CB Consumer Confidence surveys, both the flash readings for February.
Credit Markets Trades Really Low, Oil Price Reaches High Levels At The Same Time

Credit Markets Trades Really Low, Oil Price Reaches High Levels At The Same Time

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 22.02.2022 15:36
S&P 500 is waking up to fresh European news, and holds up well. There is no panic upswing in gold and silver, but crude oil and natural gas are up the most. As the U.S. markets are to open following yesterday‘s Washington‘s Birthday holiday, let‘s bring up the key details of yesterday‘s analysis: (…) S&P 500 opening upswing gave way to more selling, but credit markets didn‘t lead to the downside on a daily basis. This tells me the plunge would likely be challenged shortly. As in facing a reversal attempt – it‘s that junk bonds for all the recent (and still to come) deterioration, will probably rebound a little next. Value already retraced part of Friday‘s decline – it‘s just tech that didn‘t yet react to the Treasuries reprieve. Good to have taken short profits off the table. The table is set for S&P 500 to rise, and for bonds to rally somewhat. And that wouldn‘t be the result of war tensions lifting up Treasuries, gold and oil. Red hot inflation, decelerating growth and compressing yield curve are a challenging environment, and the odds of a 50bp Mar rate hike are overwhelming, but the Fed‘s balance sheet is still rising – now within spitting distance of $9T. Sure they will take on inflation, but I continue to think that by autumn they would be forced to reverse course, and start easing. Fresh stimulus after markets protest during 1H 2022? Would be helpful for the midterms... The consumer isn‘t in a great shape as the confidence data reveal – and that‘s also reflected in the direction of discretionaries vs. staples. Inflation is pinching, and the pressure on the Fed to act, is on – its credibility is being challenged. Food inflation is high, and seeing food at home prices rising this much, is as surefire marker of coming recession as yield curve inversion is. And yield differentials are flattening around the world – quite a few central banks are more ahead in the tightening path than the Fed. Economy slowing down, stock market correction far from over (yes, in spite of the coming rebound, I‘m looking for lower lows still), and precious metals upleg underway – yes, underway, and especially our gold profits can keep rising - as I wrote on Friday: (…) With gold at $1,900 again and silver approaching $24, copper‘s fate is also brightening – the miners‘ continued outperformance is a very good sign. With crude oil taking a breather, the inflationary pressures aren‘t at least increasing, but don‘t look for the Bullard or other statements to defeat inflation – I‘m standing by the 4-5% official rate CPI data for 2022 (discussed in yesterday‘s summary). CPI might turn out even a full percentage point higher – depends upon the hedonics and substitution massaging. What a long quote – let‘s update it with the premarket action. S&P 500 is still waiting with its potential upsing, dollar has gone nowhere really, and precious metals look like having a bright day today. The crude oil upswing shows that markets don‘t like the geopolitical news, and are likely to behave in a risk-off way of late (Treasuries, gold and oil up benefiting most). The internals of today‘s stock market action would be telling – I recently got an interesting question touching also upon rates and real estate: Q: I read your most recent newsletter with great interest: 1. You think the Fed would start to ease this fall? In your opinion, how long would that last?  Midterm would be done soon there after so would it be a quick few months then revert back to higher rates? 2. I’m asking question #1 as it would impact real estate. 3. You anticipate a “temporary” rise in the S&P this week? Are you thinking just a few days? I noticed 10 yr is going down. A: Thank you for asking. I'll take 1 & 2 in one go - I think they would change course latest autumn. So, now hawkish and raising, then turning to easing before midterms. Let's see first the damage this tightening does, and the degree to which they then turn dovish. As regards real estate, it's slowing down, homebuilders, XLRE... Headwinds would be stiffening, rates are eating into mortgages, but those ZIP codes where immigration into is high, would do best - but the overall, total real estate isn't an appealing proposition. When markets open, there is likely to be a little SPX rally off oversold readings. Sure, they can get more oversold - that's the way it goes during bearish episodes, which is why I'm not long. The trend for now is to the downside, so I would keep predominantly looking and taking opportunities to short. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 caught a little buying interest going into the long weekend – better days though look to be coming. Not a monstrous rally, but still an upswing. Credit Markets HYG is indeed basing, and will help stocks move higher next. LQD and TLT are already rising, and there is still somewhat more to come. Bonds have simply deteriorated too fast in 2022, and need a breather. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals fireworks continue – we‘re getting started, and $1,920 is the next stop. Kiss of life from the bond market reprieve comes next, on top of all the other factors I‘ve talked about recently. Crude Oil Crude oil is fairly well bid, but the war jitters are helping it out (as in staving off a bit deeper correction). As both oil and base metals are rising, inflation isn‘t likely to slow down (perhaps later in summer?) - black gold‘s uptrend isn‘t over really. Copper Copper keeps going sideways in a volatile fashion, and can be counted on to break higher – inflationary pressures aren‘t abating, and outweigh the slowing economy. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos stopped breaking down today, and the price action smacks of joining in the modest risk-on upswing, as unbelievable as it sounds. Summary Yesterday‘s summary is valid also today – S&P 500 appears on the verge of trying to swing higher, and credit markets would be leading the charge as tech finally turns. Value had trouble declining some more on Friday already. Stock market upswing though wouldn‘t throw the precious metals bulls off balance – not too many weeks have passed since I was at the turn of the year predicting that gold (and silver with miners implied) would be the bullish surprise of 2022 – and for all the talk and preemtive tightening in the credit markets, we haven‘t yet seen the Fed move. Anyway, such a lag in moving the Fed funds rate higher, is normal these decades – we are a long way from the early 1980s when the delay between say 2-year Treasury and Fed funds rate move was some 2 months. Crude oil is likewise going to keep rising, and the same goes naturally for copper following in the footsteps. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
OVR – innovative Metaverse platform. Virtual lands and treasure hunt. Augmented Reality conquers the world

OVR – innovative Metaverse platform. Virtual lands and treasure hunt. Augmented Reality conquers the world

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 23.02.2022 09:10
OVR is the Metaverse platform which combines blockchain technology and augmented reality. It allows to buy virtual lands and provides unusual experiences at the junction of two worlds. About OVR OVR is Metaverse platform for gaming, virtual retail, tourism, education and more. It is open-source, AR platform powered by Ethereum Blockchain. At the end of January OVR has informed about the beginning of migration on Polygon Blockchain. OVR platform is based on two kinds of tokens. OVR tokens are utility tokens based on ERC-20 standard. Unique, non-fungible OVRLands tokens are based on ERC-721 standard. OVRLands represent parcels stored inside a blockchain-based ledger. Every land has standard dimension of 300 square meters. They divide our planet into hexagons in virtual world. The total number of OVRLands is 1.660.954.464.112. Every land has precise geographical localization. Users can participate in OVRLand auctions with OVR fungible tokens. Every auction closes 24 hours after the last bid. If you are the winner, an NFT representing the OVRLand will be minted and sent to your wallet. Until now on the platform over 700 000 auctions have been closed and over 1800 are lasting. These values are still changing. On the platform we can buy virtual lands located on all the world. ŹródÅ‚o: OVR The OVR platform has also many another features and is still developed. Users can create avatars, explore various spaces in augmented reality and play games in play-to-earn model. Augmented Reality Augmented Reality (AR) is technology, which can add any type of content to the surrounding environment, creating the illusion that the real and the virtual elements coexist in the same space. It’s dimension, where everything is possible. Since 2018 there has been dynamic growth of Augmented Reality technologies. Technological giants such as Apple, Facebook and Google made major investments in this industry. According to the forecast published by IDC, augmented reality will play an important role in consumer industry and retail in the near future. The growing popularity of augmented reality is connected with the development of smartphones which can support this technology and smart glasses technologies, which can add information to what the wearer sees. According to data from IDC, the augmented reality market reached $11 billion in 2020 and can even reach $137 billion by the end of 2024. The graph below shows past and estimated future revenues of this industry. Source: IDC (https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prEUR146720420) AR experiences can range from static 3D content to interactive highly complex and hyper real scenes, which engage the user to an interaction with the surrounding world. OVR Tokens Users can buy OVR tokens from IBCO (Initial Bonding Curve Offering). Starting price is 0.07$ per one token. The more tokens are minted, the higher the price. The IBCO is both a primary and a secondary market, where you can buy and sell tokens. Buying is creating tokens, selling is burning tokens. The IBCO will never ends. It’s the warranty of liquidity for OVR token holders who can sell it in every moment. Users can also buy OVR tokens on Uniswap, MXC, Bitmart, Bilaxy or Loopring. It’s also possible by credit card, but this option is not available for China and US citizens. OVRLands Tokens If we have OVR tokens, we can participate in an OVRLand auction. The base price for an OVRLand auction is 10$ paid in OVR Tokens. OVR Tokens have a floor purchasing power of 0.10$, so regardless of the OVR Tokens price on the market, 100 OVR tokens will always have a minimum value of 10$ for buying OVRLand. Auctions last 24 hours, and the minimum price increase for consecutive bids on the same land is 2x. What is IBCO and how does it differ from ICO? Similarly as ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings), IBCOs also are used to finance crypto projects. IBCO is the solution to many problems of ICO, such as lack of transparency, liquidity and the prices of tokens established arbitrarily by the project promoters. Not always was also clear, if a promoter who has raised funds has actually spent them to finance the proposed project. This method of financing was high risk for investors. IBCOs are created with the aim of solving these problems. Nowadays a project can issue its token directly on a decentralized crypto exchange (DEX), such as Uniswap. Token can be issued by creating an exchange pair on a DEX or basing on customer solutions. This method of financing is often used by projects based on DAOs (decentralized autonomous organizations) that are controlled by token holders. In traditional ICO tokens are issued before being released on the market. In case of IBCO tokens will be minted if someone buys them or will be burned if someone sells them, so creating and burning of tokens depends on demand and supply. An example of such a project is OVR. How to buy a virtual land? Before users can participate in an OVRLand auction, they need to have a Metamask or Imtoken wallet with OVR tokens. If we don’t have it, we can buy OVR tokens through the OVR IBCO or swap it on Uniswap. The next step is to visit the OVR marketplace and click “connect wallet” on top. If it is our first time participating in the land auction, we need to register with our email address and nationality information. Then we need to check our inbox to confirm the email address. The next step – to increase the auction allowance - we only need to do once for the first time. It permits the smart contract to take the OVR tokens as payment from our wallet if we win the auction. After clicking on “Increase” a prompt from our wallet will ask for a confirmation. After a few minutes we should see the auction allowance number becoming 10000000. That means we can participate in auctions. The next step is to click Marketplace and select the land that we want on the map. We can also zoom in the map. Then we need to click on a point on the map or search the place by entering the name of the location). The next step is to open the bidding panel clicking on Init Auction or Place Bid. Then we insert the amount we want to bid for and confirm by clicking on Place Bid. Next we wait for 24 hours. If there is no other user with a better offer, we own our OVRLand NFT and will see the status of this auction as “closed”. If someone placed a higher bid, the auction would stay open for another 24 hours. We can always check our assets, clicking “My Assets”, where we can see the status of our ongoing land auction and our own OVRLands. Treasures in the virtual world The OVR platform can attract enthusiasts of games. “Treasure Hunt” is play to earn game. If we find treasure chest, we will earn OVR tokens. To play the game, we need to download the smartphone app and give the permission to use the camera. The app must find some key points in the environment to anchor the scene, in which the action takes place. OVRLive OVRLive allows to combine the user’s face photo with the selected avatar body. In this case the app also must find some key points in the environment to anchor the 3D scene, in which user can move and create interactions with friends. OVR Live Events Thanks to Augmented Reality, fans will be able to attend a live events, especially concerts and see their favourite artists perform at their home. The artist will be visualized through his hyper-realistic 3D avatar. His movements will be recorded and reproduced in real-time to recreate a live performance. Augmented reality will enable also interactions between the artists and another users. Polygon migration has started At the end of January OVR has informed about the beginning of migration on Polygon Blockchain. Polygon network payments have been added to the Ethereum and BSC payments options in the primary market. It allows to decrease transaction costs. When the migration is completed the changes will also be introduced on the secondary market. The changes include: batch minting of all the light minted OVRLands generation of a personal custoded wallet for users who registered without declaring one direct NFT minting of new primary market sales- NFT bridge from Ethereum to Polygon fully decentralized secondary market. About company OVRGLOBAL OÜ is a company based in Tallinn managing the issuing of OVR utility token. The company is regulated by the Estonian Financial Intelligence Unit and has a valid virtual currency services license FVT000345. OVR Team consists of Visionaries, Builders and Coders. The founder and CEO of the team is Davide Cuttini, who has wide experience in augmented reality, deep learning and blockchain technology. The team consists of over 20 people. Each of them makes a contribution to the development of the project. For more details of the project you can contact Telegram group: https://t.me/OVRtheReality
Is It Like XAUUSD Is Supported By Everything? How Long Will The Strengthening Last?

Is It Like XAUUSD Is Supported By Everything? How Long Will The Strengthening Last?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 22.02.2022 16:01
  The current military tensions and the Fed’s sluggishness favor gold bulls, but not all events are positive for the yellow metal. What should we be aware of? It may be quiet on the Western Front, but quite the opposite on the Eastern Front. Russia has accumulated well over 100,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine and makes provocations practically every day, striving for war more and more clearly. Last week, shelling was reported on Ukraine’s front line and Russia carried out several false flag operations. According to Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, “the evidence on the ground is that Russia is moving toward an imminent invasion.” Meanwhile, President Biden said: “We have reason to believe they are engaged in a false flag operation to have an excuse to go in. Every indication we have is they're prepared to go into Ukraine and attack Ukraine.” Of course, what politicians say should always be taken with a pinch of salt, but it seems that the situation has gotten serious and the risk of Russian invasion has increased over recent days.   Implications for Gold What does the intensifying conflict between Russia and Ukraine imply for the gold market? Well, the last week was definitely bullish for the yellow metal. As the chart below shows, the price of gold (London P.M. Fix) rallied over the past few days from $1,849 to $,1894, the highest level since June 2021; And he gold futures have even jumped above $1,900 for a while! Part of that upward move was certainly driven by geopolitical risks related to the assumed conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This is because gold is a safe-haven asset in which investors tend to park their money in times of distress. It’s worth remembering that not all geopolitical events are positive for gold, and when they are, their impact is often short-lived. Hence, if Russia invades Ukraine, the yellow metal should gain further, but if uncertainty eases, gold prices may correct somewhat. To be clear, the timing of the current military tensions is favorable for gold bulls. First of all, we live in an environment of already high inflation. Wars tend to intensify price pressure as governments print more fiat money to finance the war effort and reorient their economies from producing consumer goods toward military stuff. Not to mention the possible impact of the conflict on oil prices, which would contribute to rising energy costs and CPI inflation. According to Morgan Stanley’s analysts, further increases in energy prices could sink several economies into an outright recession. Second, the pace of economic growth is slowing down. The Fed has been waiting so long to tighten its monetary policy that it will start hiking interest rates in a weakening economic environment, adding to the problems. There is a growing risk aversion right now, with equities and cryptocurrencies being sold off. Such an environment is supportive of gold prices. Third, the current US administration has become more engaged around the world than the previous one. My point is that the current conflict is not merely between Russia and Ukraine, but also between Russia and the United States. This is one of the reasons why gold has been reacting recently to the geopolitical news. However, a Russian invasion of Ukraine wouldn’t pose a threat to America, and the US won’t directly engage in military operations on Ukrainian land, so the rally in gold could still be short-lived. If history is any guide, geopolitical events usually trigger only temporary reactions in the precious metals markets, especially if they don’t threaten the United States and its economy directly. This is because all tensions eventually ease, and after a storm comes calm. Hence, although the media would focus on the conflict, don’t get scared and – when investing in the long run – remember gold fundamentals. Some of them are favorable, but we shouldn’t forget about the Fed’s tightening cycle and the possibility that disinflation will start soon, which could raise the real interest rates, creating downward pressure on gold prices. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Economic Calendar by FXMAG.COM – 24/02/2022 – They’re Going To Speak A Lot…

Economic Calendar by FXMAG.COM – 24/02/2022 – They’re Going To Speak A Lot…

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 23.02.2022 10:51
So, the week is coming to an end, but markets stay awake all days long. Right after midnight we’re all welcomed to join our friends from Australia in reviewing Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q4) (Prev. -2.2%). Afterwards, at 7.30 a.m. Swiss Employment Level (Q4) will be released. Heading to Oceanic Area, India will release RBI MPC Meeting Minutes, followed by Brazilian Unemployment Rate (Prev. 11.6%) Released half an hour later. Back to Europe, shortly after midday ECB McCaul is going to declare. At 1 a.m. Russia will release their Central Bank Reserves and 15 minutes later BoE Gov Bailey is going to give a speech. At 2.40 p.m. ECB Supervisory Board Member Fernandez-Bollo is going to speak. Isabel Schnabel will take her turn more than hour later. USA – At 1.30 p.m. GDP (QoQ) (Q4) (Prev. 6.9%), GDP Price Index (Prev. 7.0%) and Initial Jobless Claims (Prev. 248K) will be released. In the same time, but in Canada, we will meet the latest Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Prev. 0.7%). In the afternoon we will get to know US New Home Sales (MoM) and Crude Oil Inventories (Prev. 1.121M) and Cushing Crude Oil Inventories. Some would say that 24/02 is the day of speeches what is not exaggerated as FOMC Members speaks from 4 p.m. to 6 p.m. We will get the Thursday ended with New Zealand’s Core Retail Sales (QoQ) (Prev. -6.7%), Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q4) (Prev. -8.1%), Trade Balance (YoY) (Jan) (Prev. -6.780M) followed by Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) (Prev. -0.2%) and CPI Tokyo Ex Food And Energy (MoM) (Feb) (Prev. -0.3%) Source: Investing.com Tiime: GMT
Swaps: FX Swap vs. Cross-Currency Swaps

Swaps: FX Swap vs. Cross-Currency Swaps

Purple Trading Purple Trading 23.02.2022 11:09
~/getmedia/fbdf02b1-4fa2-42af-bbad-7f789e463bc0/P-swapy.png Swaps: FX Swap vs. Cross-Currency Swaps Swaps are derivative contracts serving for the purpose of exchanging financial instruments. through which two parties exchange financial instruments. Such instruments can comprise of different values, however, the mostly popular is the exchange of cash when both parties agree on certain notional principal. In practice, banks do not change the principal. Each of the cash flows has a so-called swap leg. Often, one leg comprises of a fixed cash flows, while the other leg is somehow variable, therefore it’s moving according to some interest rate, fx rate or any other indices, etc. Interest rate swaps (IRS) This is the most frequently used swap type on the interbank market. It’s not a business of any retail traders, nor they can’t be found on any exchanges. This is a derivative for an over-the-counter market (OTC), where banks (or any other financial institutions) exchange currencies.   Calculation of an IRS: Bank A has issued a 5-yr bond with a variable annual interest rate according to the LIBOR rate + 1.3% (130 basis points). Bank A makes an agreement with the Bank B, expressing its will to pay LIBOR + 1.3% for $1 million for 5 years to the Bank A. In exchange, Bank A pays the fixed annual rate of 5% on a notional value of $1 million for the same 5 years. Let’s imagine the LIBOR stays at 1.5%. In the event the rate rises over the next 5 years, Bank A benefits from such deal. In the event LIBOR rises 0.75% p.a., Bank A pays $215,000 to bond holders Year 2 = 1.5% + 0.75% = 2.25% Year 3 = 2.25% + 0.75% = 3.0% Year 4 = 3.0% + 0.75% = 3.75% Year 5 = 3.75% + 0.75% = 4.5% $215,000 = $1,000,000 x [(5 x 0.013) + 0.015 + 0.0225 + 0.03 + 0.0375 + 0.045] This means that the Bank A pays $75,000 more to its bond holders as if the rate stayed the same (so it would pay only $140,000 if LIBOR had remained unchanged at 1.5%: 140 000 $ = 1 000 000 $ x 5 x (0,013 + 0,015) Bank A pays Bank B $250,000: 250 000 $ = 1 000 000 $ x 5 x 0,05 Bank A receives $215,000 from the Bank B. Therefore, its net loss on the swap comes to $250,000 - $215,000 = $35,000. FX swaps An FX swap is another kind of agreement between two banks, exchanging one currency for another (so the EU-based Bank A lends EUR to the Bank B, while the U.S.-based Bank B lends U.S. dollars to the Bank A). In this case, the collateral for meeting its obligation is the amount to be repaid by one party to another. Such repayment depends on the exchange rate, so the development is clear since the beginning. According to the most frequent situation for FX swaps, the picture from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) depicts the exchange of EUR for USD through swap. The Bank A borrows USD (X·S USD) from the Bank B while lending the EUR (X EUR) to the Bank B (S means the FX spot rate). After the expiration (if not prolonged), the Bank A is obliged to return USD (X·F USD) to the Bank B, while the Bank B must return EUR (X EUR) to the Bank A (F means the FX forward rate since the start).   FX swaps are popular on the interbank market as they allow the banks to reach to foreign currencies easily (could apply to exporting/importing companies as well). Thanks to its popularity on the OTC market, their maturities have been often prolonged for more than 1 year, however the banks are always looking for further possibilities and derivatives as they need foreign cash flows as well. Good example is the swaption (option giving the right to the user to open a swap at certain time for the underlying asset). Fig. 1: System of FX swaps – source: BIS Cross-Currency Swaps Cross-currency swaps are used less frequently, however, they play an important role on the interbank OTC market. Here, the banks borrow on currency, while lending another currency at the same time to the bank they borrowed from. The system is little upgraded from the FX swaps, albeit many traders tend to mix these two swap types. Here, the EU-based Bank A borrows USD (X·S USD) from the Bank B, while providing it EUR (X EUR) as in case of FX swaps. Nevertheless, here the Bank A receives EUR 3M Libor+ α from the Bank B, while the Bank A pays USD 3M Libor to the Bank B every quarter (3M or Q). The α is the price of the basis swap, agreed between the parties at the beginning. After the expiry date, the Bank A is obliged to return USD (X·S USD) to the Bank B, where S is the spot rate at the conclusion of this agreement. At the same time, the Bank B must return EUR (X EUR) to the Bank A. Cross-currency swaps serve for the same purpose on the interbank market, however, the banks/institutions tend to take the rates (their change) into account, mainly during the volatile periods of time. Here, due to their nature or rate change taken into account, the maturity is much longer as in case of the FX swaps as the change of rates comes much slower as in case of the exchange rate. They are often concluded from 1 to 30 years in maturity. Fig. 2: System of cross-currency swaps – source: BIS
How the Russia-Ukraine crisis has reflected on the financial market so far

How the Russia-Ukraine crisis has reflected on the financial market so far

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 23.02.2022 12:11
Over the last several weeks, traders would have heard of and watched the unfolding Ukraine crisis. Russia built up a mass of troops and military hardware on the border, which started sending shockwaves through the markets that an invasion and new European conflict could be developing. This is not the first time we have seen Russian aggression towards Ukraine. In 2014 we all watched as Russia annexed Crimea after Moscow said it supported the liberty and backing the people’s free will as they wanted to rejoin Russia and break away from Ukraine. During this round, the situation felt and looked different due to the sheer build-up of the Russian military. Ukraine requesting to join NATO and the possibility of U.S./NАТО bases being built in Ukraine look like a flashpoint for the Russian side. Despite talks and negotiations, Russia continued to amass military close to the border, feeding invasion fears. Reasons continued to put out by the Kremlin, scheduled military exercises with Belarus. These failed to settle nerves as Western leaders continued to put forward prosed crippling sanctions that would be imposed if Russia invaded. The worst seemed possible late last week, and reports emerged of explosions and fighting in the two eastern parts of Ukraine. Russian tank numbers also increased, and we all thought it was just a matter of when we would see a Russian invasion. Biden offered Putin a summit only if he hadn’t invaded at the final hour. This is off the table now that Russia has once again pulled off another Crimea to a degree. Yesterday we heard that the two Eastern areas of Ukraine had voiced their right to become independent. The Kremlin supported them immediately and advised it had crossed the border to support a peaceful transition with a peacekeeping mission. In other words, a proxy invasion. President Biden has called this an invasion of Ukraine and announced sweeping sanctions on the Russian bank VEB and its military bank and cuts them out of any USD transactions. Individual sanctions, Biden said the adult children and members of Putin’s inner circle “share the corrupt gains of the Kremlin’s policies, and so they ought to share in the pain as well.” The sanctions on Russia’s sovereign debt expand upon Biden’s existing restrictions set in 2021 and prohibit American banks from trading shares in and or lending to several significant Russian sovereign debt funds. Prime Minister Johnson also made good on his threat of sanctions. The first tranche of sanctions would target Rossiya, IS Bank, General Bank, Promsvyazbank and the Black Sea Bank. The new sanctions also include three “very high net worth” individuals: Gennady Timchenko, Boris Rotenberg and Igor Rotenberg. Germany has halted approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline due to Russia’s actions, and the EU has agreed on sanctions to hurt Russia. The crisis had a significant impact on the markets. As you would expect, we have seen plenty of movement away from risk markets, but it hasn’t been totally black and white. Energy, oil has been driven higher during the crisis, and we’ve watched USOUSD (WTI) jump by 28% in the last three months. Price trading at $96 this week. Spot gas surged this week, hitting 6.70 but has pulled back to 4.31. Russia is a major energy supplier to Europe. This is a major card they hold. Traders will be watching oil and gas as any new aggression could cause oil to spike. We could even see $100 or higher reached again. The markets are a funny beast, and if they see the situation as calm, don’t be surprised if we continue to see price pullback. Sky-high oil prices could impact the FED. Crude prices can drive up inflation and slow down the global economy. A surge in oil could cause the Fed to rethink its pace of hiking due to growth concerns. FX, the USD and JPY have seen phases of demand during the crisis, but they have been far from dominant. Looking at this month’s trade so far, we can see that mainly the EUR has been most affected with falls to the two safe-havens. The GBP has been flat, and the AUD has been stronger. The AUD rallied yesterday as the situation developed and so far looks to be ignoring the situation. If we had seen an all-out invasion and this could still be a possibility, we would expect a traditional reaction on FX with the USD and JPY rallying on safe-haven demand. Gold has seen strong demand during the crisis. Traders jumping back into the metal as it moves back to a safe haven. This is not strange. Gold has always had multiple functions in the market, and in times of war or crisis, traders can look to it over fiat. Looking at the current month on the monthly chart, we can see this clearly in action as price has jumped by over 5%. The weekly shows a triangle breakout, but we will need to watch ongoing developments to see if buyer momentum remains. The Ukrainian crisis has hit stock indexes that could have been seen as overvalued. The Dax, in particular, has been hit hard. U.S. and Asian indexes haven’t been spared with heavy selling over the last two weeks. Markets fought back yesterday after the SP500 touched correction territory, and as mentioned above, traders will be focusing on the escalation of the crisis. If the situation intensifies, we would be looking for further lows, and if things continue to calm down, we could see counter-rallies and ranges set up. Cryptocurrencies have traded mainly lower during the crisis. Clearly, we can see at this point that they’re viewed as risk assets and are acting accordingly. It hasn’t been all one-way traffic, Kyber has added 38% YTD and so far has resisted the falls we have seen on the top 10 and top 25 indexes. Coins have been firmer since Tuesday’s updates, following other risk markets higher. Polkadot, Cardando were two top ten coins that hit new lows for 2022 before value buying returned this week. Again, we see the fortunes of most coins tied to risk demand. If things escalate, we will be looking for further declines across the top 10 and 25. The post How the Russia-Ukraine crisis has reflected on the financial market so far appeared first on Eightcap.
NZDUSD: Kiwi bird learns to fly

NZDUSD: Kiwi bird learns to fly

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 23.02.2022 15:09
The New Zealand dollar has been adding around 1% since the start of the day following the third key rate hike of 0.25 percentage points to 1.0% and comments from the RBNZ on the need for further policy tightening.Wednesday also saw the announcement of the start of a balance sheet reduction, including via active selling.The central bank points to employment above the maximum sustained level and the overall economic performance above its potential, all with elevated inflation.The RBNZ also says further tightening is needed, pointing to upside risks to inflation.NZDUSD is testing 0.6800, as it did just over a month ago. The Kiwi came under pressure in the previous month due to a general risk bias in global markets. However, the paths of the NZDUSD and international markets diverged in February. The steady demand of the New Zealand currency, which gained nearly 4% from the lows of late January, contrasts with the S&P500, which lost its rising momentum about a fortnight ago and is again near the lows of the year.The main reason for that divergence is monetary policy - current and expected. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has maintained the momentum of tightening for the third time in the last six months and promises further rises later in the year.New Zealand has also found itself far removed from the worst geopolitical tensions in Europe of recent decades, continuing to benefit from record-breaking commodity prices.In this environment, it would not be surprising to see the NZDUSD rise as far as 0.7000 by the end of next month, in a break from last year's downward trend. Although, it would be too naive to expect an easy up ride for the Aussie, as the US Fed is also signalling a very hawkish stance.
Warsaw Chamber of Tax Administration is moving the headquarters of the Customs Department VI and two organizational units of the Masovian Customs and Tax Office to Żerań, to the OKAM investment

Warsaw Chamber of Tax Administration is moving the headquarters of the Customs Department VI and two organizational units of the Masovian Customs and Tax Office to Żerań, to the OKAM investment

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 23.02.2022 15:53
PRESS RELEASE Warsaw, 23.02.2022Warsaw Chamber of Tax Administration has leased over 640 sq m. of office space with a 2000 sq m. square located next to the office building for its subordinate unit in the OKAM investment in Warsaw district of Żerań.The Chamber was looking for a location that would allow for the lease of both office space and a suitable area for customs clearance for the Customs Department VI in Warsaw, currently located in the Targówek district.These conditions were met by the warehouse, production and office complex located on the site of the former car factory at Jagiellońska Street in Warsaw.- The Chamber planned to relocate to a new office. However, the property also had to guarantee efficient logistics related to the customs clearance of goods. The infrastructure of the mixed-use complex in Żerań, its unique character on the scale of the entire Warsaw agglomeration, made it possible to fully meet the tenant's requirements. The profile of the investment allowed for a full consolidation and concentration the activities of the institution and its administration in one place - informs Piotr Szymoński, Director Office Agency at Walter Herz, the company which represented the landlord during the transaction.The new headquarters of the Customs Department VI in Warsaw and two organizational units of MCTO, they plan to move into next month, is located in a four-storey building, with a total of over 3100 sq m. of space.- Warsaw market offers many attractive spaces, which is why we feel all the more distinguished by the choice of our investment in Żerań by the Warsaw Chamber of Tax Administration. We hope that the office space leased by the Chamber along with the adjacent square will meet all of the current and future expectations of the organization. Our project in Żerań will also actively develop with our tenants and their needs in mind – says Arie Koren, CEO of OKAM City.OKAM investment in Żerań provides both office, retail and commercial space, as well as warehouse space, the height of which exceeds even 20 meters. It also has paved areas of high load capacity, intended for exhibition squares and parking lots.Most of the lease space in the complex is characterized by a great variety in terms of the offered parameters. - This makes the location a great choice for customers looking for space with different functions and non-standard dimensions in one investment - says Piotr Szymoński. The location provides direct access to the S8 route. The center of Warsaw can be reached within 20 minutes from the OKAM investment. Bus and tram stops as well as bicycle paths are located 250 m from the entrance to the complex. About Walter HerzWalter Herz company is a leading Polish entity which has been operating in the commercial real estate sector across the country. For nine years, the company has been providing comprehensive and strategic investment consulting services for tenants, investors and real estate owners. It provides extensive support for both public and private sector. Walter Herz experts assist clients in finding and leasing space, and give advice when it comes to investment and hotel projects.In addition to its headquarters in Warsaw, the company operates in Cracow and the Tri-City. Walter Herz has created Tenant Academy, first project in the country, supporting and educating commercial real estate tenants across Poland, with on-site courses held in the largest cities in the country. In order to ensure the highest ethical level of services provided, the agency introduced the Code of Good Practice. About OKAMOKAM Capital has been a leader among the real estate development companies for over 17 years. The company specializes in residential and commercial construction. OKAM portfolio includes 25 projects in 7 cities in Poland, such as Strefa PROGRESS in Łódź, INCITY and CITYFLOW in Warsaw district of Wola, MOKKA, VISTA and CENTRAL HOUSE in Mokotów, ARLET HOUSE in Ochota, ŻOLI ŻOLI in Żoliborz, BOHEMA - Strefa Praga in Praga Północ and 62 ha in Warsaw district of Żerań. In Katowice, the company is implementing investments in Dolina Trzech Stawów: DOM W DOLINIE TRZECH STAWÓW and INSPIRE. The assets of OKAM also include historic tenement houses in the center of Katowice as well as in Cracow.At the end of 2018, OKAM introduced the New Quality Policy as an expression of corporate social responsibility. Starting with the CENTRAL HOUSE investment, all OKAM residential investments will be equipped with pro-ecological and functional solutions supporting climate protection and improving the comfort of living, such as electric vehicle rental, bicycle rental, air purifiers, solar panels, systems for reusing rainwater, etc.
Let‘s Try Again

Let‘s Try Again

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 23.02.2022 15:53
S&P 500 had a wild swings day, and didn‘t rise convincingly – credit markets didn‘t move correspondingly either. The upswing looks postponed unless fresh signs of broad weakness arrive. Yesterday‘s session didn‘t tell much either way – the countdown to the upswing materializing, is on even though tech didn‘t take advantage of higher bond prices. That can still come.VIX though reversed to the downside, and the relatively calmer session we‘re likely going to experience today, would be consistent with a modest attempt for stocks to move higher. I‘m though not looking for a monstrous rally, even though we‘re trading closer to the lower end of the wide S&P 500 range for this year than to its upper border. The 4,280s are so far holding but as the Mar FOMC approaches, we‘re likely to see a fresh turn south in the 500-strong index. For now, the talk of raising rates is on the back burner – Europe is in the spotlight.Note that the flight to safety on rising tensions (Treasuries, gold and oil up) didn‘t benefit the dollar. Coupled with the yields reprieve, that makes for further precious metals gains – the bull run won‘t be toppled if soothing news arrives. Likewise crude oil isn‘t going to tank below $90, and remain there. Commodities can be counted on to keep running – led by energy and agrifoods, with base metals (offering a helping hand to silver) in tow. As I wrote weeks ago, this is where the real gains are to be found.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 volume moved a little up, meaning the buying interest is still there – convincing signs of a trend change are though yet not apparent. Should prices prove to have trouble breaking lower over the next 1-2 days, this could still turn out a good place for a little long positon.Credit MarketsHYG continues basing, and keeps trading in a risk-off fashion, which is why I can‘t be wildly bullish stocks for now. Stock market gains are likely to remain subdued, noticeably subdued – as a bare minimum for today.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals fireworks continue, but a little reprieve is developing – nothing though that would break the bull. The run is only starting, and would continue through the rate raising cycle.Crude OilCrude oil is fairly well bid, and doesn‘t appear to be really dipping any time soon. Oil stocks are preparing for an upswing, and would remain one of the best performing S&P 500 sectors. Tripple digit oil is a question of time.CopperCopper‘s moment in the spotlight is approaching as commodities keeps pushing higher, and base metals are breaking up. All of these factors are inflationary.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are attempting to move up today, and further gains are likely. I‘m though looking for the 50-day moving average in Bitcoin (corresponding roughly to the mid Feb lows in Ethereum) to prove an obstacle.SummaryS&P 500 didn‘t break to new lows overnight, and appears to be picking up somewhat today. The anticipated rebound might materialize later today, and would require bond participation to be credible. I‘m not looking for sharp gains within this upswing though – the correction looks very much to have further to run. It‘s commodities and precious metals where the largest gains are to be made, with the European tensions taking the focus off inflation (momentarily). The pressure on the Fed to act decisively, is though still on as various credit spreads tell – and the same goes for the compressed yield curve speaking volumes about the (precarious) state of the real economy.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Digital World Acquisition Corp Stock News and Forecast: Premarket more bullish on DWAC than regular session

Digital World Acquisition Corp Stock News and Forecast: Premarket more bullish on DWAC than regular session

FXStreet News FXStreet News 23.02.2022 16:05
DWAC stock spiked 28% in Tuesday's premarket after TRUTH Social began accepting users.Tuesday's regular session, however, saw DWAC jump only half as high.Digital World Acquisition Corp's share count is expected to more than quadruple one month after merger closes.Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC) stock could not compete in Tuesday's regular session with its performance in the premarket. DWAC shares exploded 28% to $108 before the markets opened on Tuesday. Once the public session got under way, however, DWAC could not even break $100. The Special Purpose Acquisition Vehicle (SPAC) slated to take former President Donald Trump's Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) public in the next month still closed up 10.2% to $92.90 on a day when most equities sold off due to tensions on the Ukraine-Russia front.Donald Trump's social media startup, TRUTH Social, began allowing app downloads on Apple devices on Sunday, February 20, which caused the price to spike on Tuesday when markets opened after the Presidents' Day holiday.Digital World Acquisition Corp Stock News: 172K waitlistedOn Tuesday, Newsweek reported that more than 172,000 accounts had been waitlisted, and other sources said many of those seeking to gain access had received error messages. Research firm Apptopia estimated there were 170,000 downloads on Monday in the US. The app was the top free download in Apple's App Store on Monday.This was good news for the most part since trouble accessing a new app due to popularity is normally a sign that it is a hit. Traders, however, began taking profits almost immediately when DWAC shares popped to $99 at the open.A steady drip of new download figures should buoy the stock in the coming days as the company has said it may take 10 days to onboard all the early adopters. The only major worry going forward is the coming share count increase. Thirty days after the merger is completed, separate shares owned by insiders, underwriters, and private investors who invested in the SPAC's separate PIPE deal (Private Investment in Public Equity) will be allowed to trade. This means that the current 37 million-odd shares will grow overnight to more than 170 million. Though this is not a standard dilution event, the increase may put downward pressure on the share price.Additionally, another 40 million "earnout" shares might be earned by company insiders and owners if the share price remains above $15, $20 or $30 a share on average in the month after the merger. Then there are the 15 million warrants that could get exercised in September 2022. By the end of the year, there could be 225 million total shares. Digital World Acquisition Corp Stock Forecast: Two top trend linesAfter opening on Tuesday at $99, the stock immediately sold down to $85.67 before rebounding throughout the rest of the day. Twice during Tuesday's session, DWAC faced resistance near $96.DWAC is trading within an ascending price channel, which gives the market confidence to hold out for higher prices. Traders should note that there are two separate possible top trend lines available to them. The first one (yellow) is the more recent trend that began on January 24. It is much steeper and takes a trajectory aimed at the 161.8% Fibonacci level at $134.90. The other (blue) began back on December 8 and takes a more conservative and gradual aim at the $120 level, which was significant during the first rally in price action back during late October.The swing highs from January 19, February 7 and 22 are all slightly higher than one another, demonstrating that and uptrend is definitely motion no matter which top trend line is preferred. Support sits at $78, $60 and $38. DWAC 1-day chart
Stocks Fell Again – a Dip Buying Opportunity?

Stocks Fell Again – a Dip Buying Opportunity?

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 23.02.2022 15:35
  Stocks were volatile yesterday and the broad stock market fell by another 1%. Was it a final decline or just another leg within a downtrend? The S&P 500 index lost 1.01% on Tuesday, Feb. 22, as it extended its last week’s Thursday’s-Friday’s sell-off. The daily low was at 4,267.11, and the market closed slightly above the 4,300 mark. We’ve seen a lot of volatility following the U.S. President Biden’s speech on Russia-Ukraine conflict. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.7% higher. We may see more volatility, however it looks like a short-term bottoming pattern. The nearest important resistance level is at 4,350-4,400, marked by the recent local low and some previous support levels. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,250-4,300, among others. The S&P 500 index trades within its late January consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract – Short-Term Consolidation Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. It extended the downtrend on Monday, but it managed to stay slightly above its late January local lows. For now, it looks like a short-term consolidation. It may be a bottoming pattern before an upward correction. Yesterday, we decided to open a speculative long position before the opening of the cash market. We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index went below the 4,300 level yesterday, as investors reacted to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis news. The market may be trading within a short-term consolidation and we may see an attempt at reversing the downtrend. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index will likely bounce or fluctuate following its late last week’s sell-off We are maintaining our yesterday’s long position. We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Miners for Breakfast, Gold for Dessert: Bearish Fundamentals Will Hurt

Miners for Breakfast, Gold for Dessert: Bearish Fundamentals Will Hurt

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 23.02.2022 15:59
  To the disappointment of gold bulls, the yellow metal’s upward trend will not last long. Fundamentals have already taken their toll on gold miners.  While gold remains uplifted due to the Russia-Ukraine drama, the GDXJ ETF declined for the second-straight day on Feb. 22. Moreover, I warned on numerous occasions that the junior miners are more correlated with the general stock market than their precious metals peers. As a result, when the S&P 500 slides, the GDXJ ETF often follows suit. To that point, with shades of 2018 unfolding beneath the surface, the Russia-Ukraine headlines have covered up the implications of the current correction. However, the similarities should gain more traction in the coming weeks. For context, I wrote on Feb. 22: When the Fed’s rate hike cycle roiled the NASDAQ 100 in 2017-2018, the GDXJ ETF suffered too. Thus, while the Russia-Ukraine drama has provided a distraction, the fundamentals that impacted both asset classes back then are present now. Please see below: To explain, the green line above tracks the GDXJ ETF in 2018, while the black line above tracks the NASDAQ 100. If you analyze the performance, you can see that the Fed’s rate hike cycle initially rattled the former and the latter rolled over soon after. However, the negativity persisted until Fed Chairman Jerome Powell performed a dovish pivot and both assets rallied. As a result, with the Fed Chair unlikely to perform a dovish pivot this time around, the junior miners have some catching up to do. Furthermore, while the S&P 500 also reacts to the geopolitical risks, the Fed’s looming rate hike cycle is a much bigger story. With the U.S. equity benchmark also following its price path from 2018, a drawdown to new 2022 lows should help sink the GDXJ ETF. Please see below: Source: Morgan Stanley To explain, the yellow line above tracks the S&P 500 from March 2018 until February 2019, while the blue line above tracks the index's current movement. If you analyze the performance, it's a near-splitting image. Moreover, while Morgan Stanley Chief Equity Strategist Michael Wilson thinks a relief rally to ~4,600 is plausible, he told clients that "this correction looks incomplete." "Rarely have we witnessed such weak breadth and havoc under the surface when the S&P 500 is down less than 10%. In our experience, when such a divergence like this happens, it typically ends with the primary index catching down to the average stock," he added. As a result, while a short-term bounce off of oversold conditions may materialize, the S&P 500's downtrend should resume with accelerated fervor. In the process, the GDXJ ETF should suffer materially as the medium-term drama unfolds.  To that point, the Fed released the minutes from its discount rate meetings on Jan. 18 and Jan. 26. While the committee left interest rates unchanged, the report revealed: “Given ongoing inflation pressures and strong labor market conditions, a number of directors noted that it might soon become appropriate to begin a process of removing policy accommodation. The directors of three Reserve Banks favored increasing the primary credit rate to 0.50 percent, in response to elevated inflation or to help manage economic and financial stability risks over the longer term.” For context, the hawkish pleas came from the Cleveland, St. Louis, and Kansas City Feds. Moreover, the last time Fed officials couldn’t reach a unanimous decision was October 2019. As a result, the lack of agreement highlights the monetary policy uncertainty that should help upend financial assets in the coming months. As evidence, the report also revealed: Source: U.S. Fed Thus, while I’ve highlighted on numerous occasions that a bullish U.S. economy is bearish for the PMs, the Russia-Ukraine drama has been a short-term distraction. However, with Fed officials highlighting that growth and inflation meet their thresholds for tightening monetary policy, higher real interest rates and a stronger USD Index will have much more influence over the medium term. To that point, IHS Markit released its U.S. Composite PMI on Feb. 22. With the headline index increasing from 51.1 in January to 56.0 in February, an excerpt from the report read: “February data highlighted a sharp and accelerated increase in new business among private sector companies that was the fastest in seven months. Firms mentioned that sales were boosted by the retreat of the pandemic, improved underlying demand, expanded client bases, aggressive marketing campaigns and new partnerships. Customers reportedly made additional purchases to avoid future price hikes. Quicker increases in sales (trades) were evident among both manufacturers and service providers.” More importantly, though: Source: IHS Markit In addition, since the Fed’s dual mandate includes inflation and employment, the report revealed: Source: IHS Markit Likewise, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, added: “With demand rebounding and firms seeing a relatively modest impact on order books from the Omicron wave, future output expectations improved to the highest for 15 months, and jobs growth accelerated to the highest since last May, adding to the upbeat picture.” If that wasn't enough, the Richmond Fed released its Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity on Feb. 22. While the headline index wasn't so optimistic, the report revealed that "the third component in the composite index, employment, increased to 20 from 4 in January" and that "firms continued to report increasing wages." For context, the dashed light blue line below tracks the month-over-month (MoM) change, while the dark blue line below tracks the three-month moving average. If you analyze the former's material increase, it's another data point supporting the Fed's hawkish crusade. Source: Richmond Fed Finally, the Richmond Fed also released its Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activity on Feb. 22. For context, the U.S. service sector suffers the brunt of COVID-19 waves. However, the recent decline in cases has increased consumers’ appetite for in-person activities. The report revealed: “Fifth District service sector activity showed improvement in February, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The revenues index increased from 4 in January to 11 in February. The demand index remained in expansionary territory at 23. Firms also reported increases in spending, as the index for capital expenditures, services expenditures, and equipment and software spending all increased.” Furthermore, with the employment index increasing from 12 to 14, the wages index increasing from 41 to 46, and the average workweek index increasing from 9 to 10, the labor market strengthened in February. Likewise, the index that tracks businesses’ ability to find skilled workers increased from -21 to -19. As a result, inflation, employment and economic growth create the perfect cocktail for the Fed to materially tighten monetary policy in the coming months.  Source: Richmond Fed The bottom line? While the Russia-Ukraine saga may dominate the headlines for some time, the bearish fundamentals that hurt gold and silver in 2021 remain intact: the U.S. economy is on solid footing, and demand is still fueling inflation. Moreover, with information technology and communication services’ stocks – which account for roughly 39% of the S&P 500 – highly allergic to higher interest rates, the volatility should continue to weigh on the GDXJ ETF. As such, while gold may have extended its shelf life, mining stocks may not be so lucky. In conclusion, the PMs were mixed on Feb. 22, as the news cycle continues to swing financial assets in either direction. However, while headlines may have a short-term impact, technicals and fundamentals often reign supreme over the medium term. As a result, lower lows should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks in the coming months. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Crypto Airdrop - Explanation - How Does It Work?

Bitcoin lower as expected of course after our latest sell signal was triggered.

Jason Sen Jason Sen 24.02.2022 08:05
(Because it has never been regarded as a safe haven in times of trouble & always goes down when stock markets panic. Also been proven to be no inflation hedge of course). Ripple reversed in between resistance at 7250/80 & 7610/30 & continues lower as expected. Ethereum breaks the 500 day moving average at 2450/2400 for yet another sell signal. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis Bitcoin breaks 40800/500 for a medium term sell signal in the 3 month bear trend initially targeting 38000/37500 then 36400/36000 & probably as far as 34000. Do not be surprised to see a test of the 100 week moving average at 32690/700 (today's value). Gains are likely to be limited in the bear trend with first resistance at 36300/400 then 39400/450. Further resistance at 40900/41000. Shorts need stops above 42200. Ripple lower again as expected to test very important 100 week moving average support at 6190/6160. Longs need stops below 6100. A break lower quickly targets 5800. If you are very brave & want to try longs at 6190/6160, look for targets of 6660/90, & perhaps as far as 6900 for profit taking. Ethereum breaks the 500 day moving average at 2450/2400 for yet another sell signal in the bear trend as we look for a retest of the January low at 2160/55. I would not rely on this holding the downside & if we continue lower look for a test of very strong support at 1900/1850. Longs need stops below 1750. If this breaks there is likely to be another very significant move to the downside. Bulls desperately need prices to hold above 2500 now to regain control. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
WTI calmer on Wednesday near $92.00 as traders monitor Ukraine crisis, US/Iran nuclear negotiations

WTI calmer on Wednesday near $92.00 as traders monitor Ukraine crisis, US/Iran nuclear negotiations

FXStreet News FXStreet News 23.02.2022 16:05
WTI is trading more calmly on Wednesday and is currently roughly flat in the $92.00 area awaiting fresh geopolitical developments. As geopolitical risk premia remains elevated, oil is likely to remain a buy on dips. A possible US/Iran nuclear deal, which would free up 1.3M BPD in exports, is a downside risk traders should note. After Tuesday’s choppy session which saw front-month WTI futures print fresh seven-year highs at $96.00 per barrel before swinging lower again, oil markets are experiencing calmer conditions on Wednesday. WTI is currently trading towards the top of mid-$90 to mid-$92.00 intra-day ranges near the $92.00 mark, where it is broadly flat on the day. Wednesday’s roughly $2.0 intra-day range compares to Tuesday’s intra-day range of more than $5.50. Crude oil markets are continuing to monitor developments regarding the Ukraine crisis as fears about a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine remain elevated and Western nations hit Russia with sanctions over its recognition of the independence of breakaway Ukrainian regions. These sanctions have so far been focused on targeting Russian banks and wealthy individuals, with US President Joe Biden on Tuesday making it clear that the US wasn’t yet to target Russian commodity exports. The geopolitical impetus for WTI to push above $96.00 and on towards $100, thus, is not yet there. But US officials have signalled that if Russia takes further aggressive action against Ukraine all options for further sanctions are on the table and this is a key risk oil traders will be monitoring in the coming days. “The prospect of more conflict in Ukraine should safeguard the geopolitical risk premium,” said one commodity analyst, whilst another warned that “There is a risk that Russia will retaliate to the sanctions by reducing deliveries of its own accord”. Thus, for now, it seems likely that dips back towards $90.00 will continue to be bought, as has been the case over the past two or so weeks. Eyes will be on a meeting of the UN General Assembly on Ukraine later in the day, which should generate fresh geopolitical headlines, as well as US weekly oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute at 2130GMT. Another theme at the top of oil traders’ minds is the prospect of a US/Iran nuclear deal. A deal would pave the way for the US to lift sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports. According to ING, this would ease concerns over OPEC+ spare capacity (or lack thereof). The bank said “Iran is currently producing at around 2.5mln BPD but is estimated to have a capacity of closer to 3.8mln BPD, therefore, over time there is the potential for 1.3mln BPD of additional supply to come onto the market”. “Nuclear talks in Vienna are reaching a sensitive and important point” said Iran's foreign minister on Wednesday.
Final Target Hit on NYMEX Natural Gas!

Final Target Hit on NYMEX Natural Gas!

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 23.02.2022 16:59
  The Natural Gas flight just landed after hitting its second and last target yesterday. The perfect trade does not exist, but this one has been developing pretty well following our flying map. In today’s edition, I will provide a trade review for Natural Gas futures (NGH22) following my last projections published on Friday Feb-11, for which the stop was also updated last Wednesday and trailed again last Thursday. Trade Plan Just to remember, our initial plan was relying on a gas market having to cope with stronger demand to fuel and increasing industrial activity after being surprised by the warming mid-February weather forecast. Hence, the projected rebounding floor (or support level) provided, which was ideal for the Henry Hub given the unyielding global demand for US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), providing a catapulting upward momentum. Then, it took a few days for the first suggested objective at $4.442 to be passed, and a few extra days for the second target located at the $4.818 level to be hit (as it was yesterday). Meanwhile, as I explained in more detail in my last risk-management-related article to secure profits, our subscribers were kindly and promptly invited to place their initial stop just below the $3.629 level (below one-month previous swing low), before receiving a couple of trading alerts suggesting they manually trail it up around the $3.886 level (around breakeven), then one more time up towards 4.180 (which corresponds to the 50% distance between initial entry and target 1), and finally to be lifted up to 4.368 optimally. Consequently, after a reconnaissance mission got close enough to target number 2, the Nat-Gas flight started running out of kerosene after passing through the first target like a fighter jet would break the sound barrier. Therefore, after getting refueled at a lower altitude (just above our highest elevation trailing stop) by a refuelling aircraft, the jet was finally ready to point and lock its last target before striking it. Here is a picture-by-picture record of that trade. First step: flight preparation on carrier ship Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Second step: prices catapulted and stop lifted at breakeven once the mid-point target was reached Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Third step: target one hit and stop dragged up Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Zoom to target one (4H chart): Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) Fourth step: mission reconnaissance to target two and refueling aircraft en route to refill the jet tank (stop trailing again) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Zoom to lock final target (4H chart): Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) Fifth step: final strike to target two Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Now, let’s zoom one more time into the 4H chart to observe the recent price action all around the abovementioned steps of our flying map: Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) As you may observe, target one is now serving as a new landing space (support) for a new ranging market cycle. That’s all, folks, for today. I hope that you enjoyed the flight with our company! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Dax 40 bounced to very strong resistance at 14750/800 but ran as far as…

Dax 40 bounced to very strong resistance at 14750/800 but ran as far as…

Jason Sen Jason Sen 24.02.2022 11:06
14893 - I hope you managed to hold on the short for the collapse as far as 14000. EuroStoxx 50 MARCH breaks important support at 3900/3880 to hit my first target of 3810/00. FTSE 100 MARCH crashed as far as 7251 as Ukraine is attacked. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Dax has crashed as far as my target & strong longer term moving average support at 14100/000. A break below 13900 should trigger significant moves to the downside, initially targeting 13750/710. However a bounce from 14000 is certainly possible, initially targeting 14280/330, perhaps as far as resistance at 14500/550. EuroStoxx broke important support at 3900/3880 initially targeting 3810/00 (hit) & perhaps as far as 3750/40. Longs are very risky but I cannot rule out a bounce from 3810/00 to 3880/90. Further gains meet strong resistance at 3940/50. FTSE crashed as far as 7251 as Ukraine is attacked. Strong resistance at 7315/40. Above 7350 however can target 7390/7400. Further losses certainly are possible to 7190/80. Expect strong support at 7130/10. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
Emini S&P MARCH shot higher to resistance at 4327/32 & almost…

Emini S&P MARCH shot higher to resistance at 4327/32 & almost…

Jason Sen Jason Sen 24.02.2022 11:55
as far as 4350/60 before prices collapsed. Nasdaq MARCH shorts at 14100/150 worked perfectly on the collapsed 14100/150 to my targets of 13850/800, 13600/580 & to within 100 ticks of VERY IMPORTANT SUPPORT AT 13000/12950 as I write this morning. Emini Dow Jones MARCH may have just completed a huge head & shoulders reversal pattern for an important longer term sell signal. Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P breaks incredibly important support at 4195/4185. Holding below here could trigger another 15% correction to the downside. We have already hit 4116. If we continue lower look for 4065/55. Key resistance at 4195/4205. As long as this hold, the outlook is very negative. However if we close the day above here it signals a false break & we could get quite a short squeeze. A break above 4215 today should confirm a move towards 4260/70, perhaps as far as 4300/10. Nasdaq tests very important longer term support at 13000/12900. Definitely worth trying a long as this could be a low for the correction at this stage. Longs need stops below 12800. A break lower however could send prices down another 100 points eventually. Holding support at 13000/12900 targets 13500/600. If we continue higher look for 13800/850. Emini Dow Jones broke support at 33200/33000 for an important longer term sell signal. So far we have hit 32226. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE VERY IMPORTANT LONGER TERM SUPPORT AT 32400/300 SO HOLDING HERE TODAY TRIGGERS A GOOD RECOVERY TO STRONG RESISTANCE AT 32900/33000. There are the only two levels that matter today. A break below 32000 is then a very important longer term sell signal & could see 750 tick losses almost immediately. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
It Begins

It Begins

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 24.02.2022 16:00
S&P 500 reprieve that wasn‘t – the buyers didn‘t arrive, and the overnight military action sparking serious asset moves, shows that buying the dip would have been a bad idea. And it still is. Risk-on assets are likely to suffer, and I‘m not looking for a sharp, V-shaped rebound. The partial retracement seen in cryptos wouldn‘t translate to much upside in paper assets – it will likely be sold into as the bottom would take time to form. The safe haven premium seen in precious metals, crude oil and other real assets would ebb and flow, but a higher base has been established. The world has changed overnight, and recognition thereof is still pending.I think it‘s clear why I had been derisking as much as possible, wary of volatility both ways in paper assets, and betting instead on a mix of real assets. This has been hugely paying off to subscribers and readers likewise favoring gold and crude oil with some copper added for good measure.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis isn‘t how an S&P 500 bottom looks like – downswing continues with more volatility ahead.Credit MarketsHYG is going down again, and credit markets are turning risk-off – look for Treasuries to do relatively better next, with little impact upon stocks.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals fireworks continue, and the upswing got a poweful ally. Whatever retracement seen next, would be marginal in light of the developments.Crude OilCrude oil upswing can be counted on to continue, and oil stocks would remain among the best performing S&P 500 pockets. Black gold is though notorious for its wild volatility, and the coming days won‘t be an exception.CopperCopper upswing would take time to develop, especially now – but the breakout in base metals is on, the inflationary messaging is still there and thriving.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos aren‘t in a rally mode, but are attempting to put in a low. I don‘t think it would hold, the dust hasn‘t settled yet.SummaryS&P 500 is plunging, and attempting to base, but more selling would inevitably hit. The overnight dust hasn‘t settled yet, but the panic lows would not happen today. Even if it weren‘t for geopolitics, stocks were in rough waters for weeks already, in a serious, yields and liquidity driven correction, with a slowing real economy on top. For all the short-term focus, the buying opportunity would materialize only once the Fed turns – by autumn 2022. The best places to be in right now, are those presented below – precious metals and commodities – as inflation fires continue to rage on.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Russian Invasion: Ukraine's government could collapse sooner, markets would see relief rally

Russian Invasion: Ukraine's government could collapse sooner, markets would see relief rally

FXStreet News FXStreet News 24.02.2022 16:16
Russia is attacking Ukraine on multiple fronts, including in Kyiv. A collapse of the Ukrainian government could allow Putin to order a retreat. The West's sanctions may keep oil prices bid, but markets could recover from the current downfall.The Russian army is accelerating its offense in Ukraine – and undoubtedly moving faster than Western diplomats, scrambling to agree on sanctions. Markets have woken up to a dark day of war and have reacted rapidly. However, a quick end to major hostilities could trigger a relief rally. At least a partial one.Reports from Kyiv show various plumes of smoke from inside and outside the city and Russian helicopters coming from Belarus. The conflict is far more than a "peacekeeping mission" in Ukraine's east.Events are moving fast and there is massive disinformation at times of war. Ukraine declared martial law and seems determined to fight back and halt the advance of Russian troops – but it could be beyond them. Some 190,000 troops – some rebels and mostly Russians – are on the move, attacking Ukraine on various fronts. Russian President Vladimir Putin's aim is to bring about the collapse of the government in Kyiv, which leans toward NATO and the EU. Overwhelmed by Russian firepower, cyberattacks, and propaganda, leaders in Ukraine could capitulate – at least to prevent further bloodshed. If Putin manages to defenestrate the Ukrainian government and install his puppets, he could announce "Mission Accomplished" and move some of the troops back home. While a long-term insurgency would follow, the world could move away from focusing on the conflict. If sanctions remain tame and threats on NATO countries subside, there could be a relief rally. Stocks and risk currencies would have room to rise, while gold – which has benefited from speculation and exuberance – would fall. The safe-haven yen, which is more sensitive to geopolitics than to other worries, would retreat. Oil would depend on European sanctions – would the West disconnect from Russia? In that case, petrol prices would surge. However, if energy is excluded, there is room for a gradual decline.
Will War Change How We Spend Or Invest Our Money?

Will War Change How We Spend Or Invest Our Money?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 24.02.2022 22:23
I discussed the potential for the invasion into Ukraine with a friend over the past few days and how this new war may change the global economy. We ended up discussing the Invasion of Kuwait that took place in August 1990. At that time, as soon as the Invasion of Kuwait started, consumers almost immediately changed their spending and financial habits.Suddenly, people stopped going out to dinner after work. They stopped going out for drinks. They also stopped playing computer games and spending money on most outside entertainment (movies and movie rentals – back in the Blockbuster days). In short, consumers became fascinated by the televised war and lost focus on almost everything else.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! As the conversation progressed, we started talking about how the US Federal Reserve may suddenly find that consumers have begun pulling away from traditional spending habits and how quickly these consumer trends can alter the economic landscape. For example, nearly 60 days into the Invasion of Kuwait, my friend remembered the US economy shifted into a much slower gear, and consumers continued to stay away from more normal spending habits.If this happens in today's super-inflated world, we may see a sudden shift in inflation, retail, housing, and general consumer demand very quickly. Recently, I started receiving messages from friends and clients worldwide who are focused on the Invasion of Ukraine – a whole new generation of people who may become entranced in the televised war (again).Consumer Retail May Suffer A -60% CollapseThis XRT Weekly Chart highlights the pre-COVID support levels that may become future targets if consumer spending habits suddenly shift. XRT has already fallen nearly -32% from the recent highs. If consumers continue to move away from outside economic activities, or more common post-COVID economic activities, we may see the Retail sector continue to move lower.Housing May Contract Faster Than ExpectedReal Estate may contract to near the COVID lows if consumers shy away from chasing speculative price trends in housing. Flipping houses has become a very hot industry over the past 5+ years. Yet, suddenly larger firms like Zillow and OpenDoor started offloading their Real Estate inventory because consumer demand shifted ahead of the US Fed's proposed rate hikes in 2022. The double-whammy of rising rates and war may be similar to what happened in the US between 1993 and 1994 – a very stagnant housing market.IYR has already fallen -16.5% from the highs and may decline to levels closer to -30% (or more) before finding a bottom. Wars tend to shift economies and spending habits very quickly.What To Stay Focused On Amid All The NoiseTraders should stay keenly focused on market risks and weaknesses. I expected the conflict in Ukraine to have been priced into the US markets over the past 7+ days. However, I believe the markets were unprepared for this scale or invasion and will attempt to settle fair stock price valuation levels as the conflict continues. This is not the same US/Global market Bullish trend we've become used to trading over the past 5+ years. The market dynamics and trends are changing from what we have experienced over the past 40 years for stocks and bonds. The 60/40 portfolio is costing you money now. Traders need an edge to stay ahead of these markets trends and to protect and profit from big trends.The only way to navigate the financial markets safely, no matter the direction, is through technical analysis. By following assets and money flows, we identify trend changes and move our capital into whatever index, sector, industry, bond, commodity, country, and even currency ETF. By following the money, you become part of new emerging trends and can profit during weak stock or bond conditions.What Trading Strategies Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 
Market Update: NDX100 posts surprise rally reversal pattern starting to form?

Market Update: NDX100 posts surprise rally reversal pattern starting to form?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 25.02.2022 06:30
Today we’re starting to watch what could be a developing reversal pattern on the NDX100 D1 chart. I’m sure we’re all aware of the disaster that the markets faced yesterday. The script went to que as we watched stock indexes plunge after news that Russia had invaded Ukraine hit the markets. This continued what had been a long sharp downtrend on the NDX100 and other major stock indexes. But what a lot of us may not have seen coming was a risk recovery late in the US session. Not only did stock indexes reverse losses but other risk markets followed and safe havens plunged, refer to gold. Why did we see the change in momentum? Could markets have simply reached a value point and shaken off the news? Could news of Russia offering to sit down and talk with Ukrain spurred buyer interest? Regardless of the reason it happened, now we are looking at levels and patterns being formed to start trying to form some opinion of the current picture. Firstly, we can see that the low stopped in a demand area and for now price closed firmly above the test. Another pattern we are starting to watch is in early development but has started to show some shape. That pattern is an inverse head and shoulders and these can be reversal patterns. Yes, we have the first shoulder and a head but we still need a second shoulder and a break of a neckline to fully confirm a completed pattern. It’s definitely something to keep in mind but as mentioned it’s still a fair way off. For now, we want to see buyers continue to post gains to show control, traders still need to keep the macro situation in mind as any escalations could resume the selling. NDX100 D1 Chart The post Market Update: NDX100 posts surprise rally reversal pattern starting to form? appeared first on Eightcap.
Bitcoin lower to 36400/36000 as expected but held 300 pips above my next target of 34000.

Bitcoin lower to 36400/36000 as expected but held 300 pips above my next target of 34000.

Jason Sen Jason Sen 25.02.2022 09:07
Ripple made a low for the day almost exactly at very important 100 week moving average support at 6190/6160. If you were very brave & bought in to longs at 6190/6160, worked perfectly hitting targets of 6660/90 & 6900 for profit taking. Ethereum broke the 500 day moving average at 2450/2400 for a sell signal but unexpectedly reversed from 2300. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis Bitcoin beat first resistance at 36300/400 to test second resistance at 39400/450. Bulls need a break above 40000 this weekend to target the 500 day moving average at 41900/42000. Unlikely but if we continue higher look for strong resistance at 44100/400. Holding second resistance at 39400/450 targets 38000/37800. If we continue lower look for 36400/36000 & probably as far as 34400/34000. Do not be surprised to see a test of very strong support at 100 week moving average at 33000/800 (today's value). Ripple made a low for the day almost exactly at very important 100 week moving average support at 6190/6160. If you were very brave & bought in to longs at 6190/6160, worked perfectly hitting targets of 6660/90 & 6900 for profit taking. However we continue higher to 7219. EXPECT VERY STRONG RESISTANCE AT 7270/7370. Shorts need stops above 7450. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 7740/7800. Holding below 6900 is more negative over the weekend & risks a slide to 6600 before a retest of very important 100 week moving average support at 6190/6160. Longs need stops below 6100. A break lower quickly targets 5800. Ethereum made a bounce from 100 pips below the big support level & bulls unexpectedly have held prices above 2500 now to regain control. Minor resistance at 2670/90. A break above 2750 signals further gains to 2800, perhaps as far as resistance at 2790/2810. A high for the weekend possible here. Support at the 500 day moving average at 2450/2400. A break below 2300 can retest the January low at 2160/55. I would not rely on this holding the downside & if we continue lower look for a test of very strong support at 1900/1850. Longs need stops below 1750. If this breaks there is likely to be another very significant move to the downside. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
On Thursday: Bitcoin Added 10.7%, Ether (ETH) Increased By 9.6%

On Thursday: Bitcoin Added 10.7%, Ether (ETH) Increased By 9.6%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.02.2022 10:32
After reaching the lows for the month, the first cryptocurrency received support from buyers, as was the case at the end of January. Of course, the growth dynamics were relatively modest, which indicates the caution of buyers. It is likely that these are long-term holders rather than short-term speculators, as markets generally remain wary. Interestingly, buying during the decline has become a key outline of the American session. After more than a 3% fall, US stock indices not only bounced back but also managed to show growth at the end of the day. This stimulated bitcoin to strengthen. A short-term surge of bullish sentiment could end quickly if risky assets resume their decline again. If the situation in Ukraine escalates even more, bitcoin may fall below $30,000 as investors leave for defensive assets. According to The New York Times, Russia is legalizing cryptocurrency to circumvent US sanctions. Otherwise, the country will not survive the growing sanctions pressure from Western countries. Bitcoin rose over the past day by 10.7% to $38,500, reducing the decline in 7 days to 5%. Ethereum jumped 12% but is still 10% lower than it was exactly a week ago. Other leading altcoins are moving almost in unison, adding about 10% in most cases. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, increased by 9.6% per day to $1.72 trillion. The bitcoin dominance index rose 0.3 points to 42.6%, due to a smaller strengthening of altcoins. The index of fear and greed of the crypto market has risen from 23 to 27, into the territory of fear.
COT Soft Commodities Speculators pushed their Corn bullish bets higher this week

COT Soft Commodities Speculators pushed their Corn bullish bets higher this week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 26.02.2022 18:24
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is this week’s jump in Corn futures bets. The speculative net position in the Corn futures rose sharply this week following two weeks of decline. The Corn speculator position, despite falling in the previous two weeks, have now actually gained by a total of +63,604 contracts over the past five weeks. The boost has pushed speculator positions to the highest bullish position of the past three weeks and second highest of the past eight weeks. Corn prices, meanwhile, surged upwards this week and touched the highest level since May of last year. The soft commodities that saw higher speculator bets this week were Corn (37,250 contracts), Sugar (683 contracts), Soybeans (9,732 contracts), Soybean Oil (15,773 contracts), Soybean Meal (2,556 contracts) and Wheat (1,944 contracts). The soft commodities that saw lower speculator bets this week were Coffee (-2,634 contracts), Cocoa (-7,301 contracts), Live Cattle (-1,324 contracts), Cotton (-3,421 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-894 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,058,132 29 339,041 2 -382,891 90 43,850 77 Gold 611,488 49 243,148 65 -269,722 35 26,574 40 Silver 163,745 29 30,302 53 -43,720 56 13,418 21 Copper 204,123 29 25,575 61 -34,754 36 9,179 78 Palladium 7,903 7 -1,429 13 1,118 83 311 63 Platinum 62,274 26 17,540 27 -22,887 76 5,347 37 Natural Gas 1,107,113 2 -130,629 39 95,974 61 34,655 67 Brent 215,908 52 -26,355 73 24,478 31 1,877 35 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 826,824 51 226,464 86 -196,755 20 -29,709 21 Corn 1,563,758 32 451,742 88 -410,962 13 -40,780 20 Coffee 252,688 24 67,791 98 -72,509 3 4,718 21 Sugar 857,376 8 75,246 52 -95,306 50 20,060 33 Wheat 379,308 23 -3,902 44 10,629 51 -6,727 69   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 451,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 37,250 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 414,492 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.3 43.5 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.4 69.8 11.8 – Net Position: 451,742 -410,962 -40,780 – Gross Longs: 536,898 680,211 144,247 – Gross Shorts: 85,156 1,091,173 185,027 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 87.7 13.4 19.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.7 -6.3 -0.1   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 75,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,563 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.3 56.0 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.6 67.1 6.9 – Net Position: 75,246 -95,306 20,060 – Gross Longs: 183,029 480,097 79,212 – Gross Shorts: 107,783 575,403 59,152 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 52.1 50.1 32.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 7.4 10.5   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 67,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,634 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,425 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.7 41.8 4.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.9 70.5 2.5 – Net Position: 67,791 -72,509 4,718 – Gross Longs: 77,625 105,619 10,958 – Gross Shorts: 9,834 178,128 6,240 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 97.8 3.0 21.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.5 -7.0 9.0   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 226,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,732 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 216,732 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.1 42.9 6.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.8 66.7 10.5 – Net Position: 226,464 -196,755 -29,709 – Gross Longs: 274,012 354,837 57,443 – Gross Shorts: 47,548 551,592 87,152 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.3 19.5 20.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.8 -21.6 6.2   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 83,093 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 15,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,320 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.8 44.7 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.6 68.4 5.9 – Net Position: 83,093 -97,272 14,179 – Gross Longs: 114,335 183,547 38,221 – Gross Shorts: 31,242 280,819 24,042 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.7 31.1 66.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.9 -19.1 18.5   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 112,100 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,556 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 109,544 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.5 41.9 11.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.0 73.4 5.4 – Net Position: 112,100 -138,497 26,397 – Gross Longs: 129,919 184,652 49,974 – Gross Shorts: 17,819 323,149 23,577 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.4 3.7 76.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.7 -8.8 3.0   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 82,243 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,567 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.4 36.4 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.7 55.1 13.2 – Net Position: 82,243 -67,284 -14,959 – Gross Longs: 131,540 131,571 32,596 – Gross Shorts: 49,297 198,855 47,555 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.3 52.5 50.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.7 -8.2 -25.5   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 66,438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,332 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.3 32.5 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.8 52.2 12.0 – Net Position: 66,438 -55,639 -10,799 – Gross Longs: 111,021 91,697 23,034 – Gross Shorts: 44,583 147,336 33,833 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.1 25.1 33.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.2 -22.2 21.1   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 90,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,421 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 93,723 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.4 38.3 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.3 81.2 3.4 – Net Position: 90,302 -101,731 11,429 – Gross Longs: 102,764 90,576 19,371 – Gross Shorts: 12,462 192,307 7,942 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.2 18.5 84.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.2 2.8 -7.6   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 41,915 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,216 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 42.7 5.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.4 61.4 3.1 – Net Position: 41,915 -48,066 6,151 – Gross Longs: 83,987 109,435 14,151 – Gross Shorts: 42,072 157,501 8,000 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 61.6 35.9 78.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.6 -26.5 30.1   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,902 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,944 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,846 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.8 40.8 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.8 38.0 10.7 – Net Position: -3,902 10,629 -6,727 – Gross Longs: 97,675 154,648 33,795 – Gross Shorts: 101,577 144,019 40,522 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.7 51.2 69.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.1 -1.4 18.7   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Energy Speculators drop WTI Crude Oil bets for 5th week despite Oil Price jump

COT Energy Speculators drop WTI Crude Oil bets for 5th week despite Oil Price jump

Invest Macro Invest Macro 26.02.2022 18:40
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT energy data is the continued decline in the WTI Crude Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the WTI Crude Oil futures has decreased for five consecutive weeks and in thirteen out of the past fifteen weeks. The spec crude position has dropped by a total of -82,271 contracts over the past fifteen weeks and speculators have now pushed their current net positioning to the lowest level of the past seven weeks. These declines in speculator sentiment has brought the current speculator strength score level into a bearish-extreme standing of just 2.4 percent where the strength score measures the current speculator standing compared to past three years where above 80 is bullish-extreme and below 20 is bearish-extreme. Despite the speculator weakness, crude oil prices have shot up on the Russian invasion of Ukraine with WTI crude touching slightly above $100 per barrel late this week. Joining WTI Crude Oil (-9,052 contracts) with falling speculator bets this week were Brent Crude Oil (-30 contracts) and Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts) while Natural Gas (795 contracts), Gasoline (991 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (4,874 contracts) saw higher speculator positions on the week. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,058,132 29 339,041 2 -382,891 90 43,850 77 Gold 611,488 49 243,148 65 -269,722 35 26,574 40 Silver 163,745 29 30,302 53 -43,720 56 13,418 21 Copper 204,123 29 25,575 61 -34,754 36 9,179 78 Palladium 7,903 7 -1,429 13 1,118 83 311 63 Platinum 62,274 26 17,540 27 -22,887 76 5,347 37 Natural Gas 1,107,113 2 -130,629 39 95,974 61 34,655 67 Brent 215,908 52 -26,355 73 24,478 31 1,877 35 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 826,824 51 226,464 86 -196,755 20 -29,709 21 Corn 1,563,758 32 451,742 88 -410,962 13 -40,780 20 Coffee 252,688 24 67,791 98 -72,509 3 4,718 21 Sugar 857,376 8 75,246 52 -95,306 50 20,060 33 Wheat 379,308 23 -3,902 44 10,629 51 -6,727 69   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 339,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 348,093 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.5 36.1 4.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.0 54.7 2.8 – Net Position: 339,041 -382,891 43,850 – Gross Longs: 442,102 743,113 100,987 – Gross Shorts: 103,061 1,126,004 57,137 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.4 89.9 76.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.4 5.6 10.5   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -26,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,325 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.3 46.9 4.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.5 35.6 3.4 – Net Position: -26,355 24,478 1,877 – Gross Longs: 37,283 101,361 9,173 – Gross Shorts: 63,638 76,883 7,296 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.5 30.6 34.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.6 19.9 -23.2   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -130,629 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 795 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -131,424 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.9 43.8 5.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.6 35.1 2.3 – Net Position: -130,629 95,974 34,655 – Gross Longs: 241,913 484,856 60,026 – Gross Shorts: 372,542 388,882 25,371 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.4 61.1 66.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.4 0.3 18.3   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 63,587 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 991 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,596 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.3 50.1 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.0 69.3 3.3 – Net Position: 63,587 -74,709 11,122 – Gross Longs: 106,356 194,978 23,947 – Gross Shorts: 42,769 269,687 12,825 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.8 62.3 78.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -9.2 30.3   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9 – Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979 – Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210 – Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,041 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 65.4 29.1 1.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 94.6 1.5 0.2 – Net Position: -12,167 11,468 699 – Gross Longs: 27,191 12,091 770 – Gross Shorts: 39,358 623 71 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 19.4 to 1 10.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.9 37.4 44.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 36.1 -36.8 5.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Metals Speculators sharply boosted Gold bets for 3rd week to 14-week high

COT Metals Speculators sharply boosted Gold bets for 3rd week to 14-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 26.02.2022 19:03
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the sharp jump in the Gold futures bets. The speculative net position in the Gold futures has gained strongly for three consecutive weeks and by a total of +71,006 contracts over that time-frame. This week’s rise by +29,535 contracts marked the largest one-week gain of the past fifteen weeks and has brought the overall Gold speculator standing to the highest standing of the past fourteen weeks, dating back to November 16th. The Gold spot price rose sharply as well this week with a spike on Thursday (on the Russian invasion of Ukraine) that brought the spot price to the $1,976 price level before settling lower back below $1,900 as the week ended. Joining Gold (29,535 contracts) with rising speculator positions this week were Silver (6,746 contracts) and Platinum (7,408 contracts) while Copper (-5,117 contracts) and Palladium (-429 contracts) saw lower speculator bets on the week. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,058,132 29 339,041 2 -382,891 90 43,850 77 Gold 611,488 49 243,148 65 -269,722 35 26,574 40 Silver 163,745 29 30,302 53 -43,720 56 13,418 21 Copper 204,123 29 25,575 61 -34,754 36 9,179 78 Palladium 7,903 7 -1,429 13 1,118 83 311 63 Platinum 62,274 26 17,540 27 -22,887 76 5,347 37 Natural Gas 1,107,113 2 -130,629 39 95,974 61 34,655 67 Brent 215,908 52 -26,355 73 24,478 31 1,877 35 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 826,824 51 226,464 86 -196,755 20 -29,709 21 Corn 1,563,758 32 451,742 88 -410,962 13 -40,780 20 Coffee 252,688 24 67,791 98 -72,509 3 4,718 21 Sugar 857,376 8 75,246 52 -95,306 50 20,060 33 Wheat 379,308 23 -3,902 44 10,629 51 -6,727 69   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 243,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 29,535 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 213,613 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.3 21.2 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.5 65.3 3.7 – Net Position: 243,148 -269,722 26,574 – Gross Longs: 350,096 129,682 49,090 – Gross Shorts: 106,948 399,404 22,516 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.1 35.3 39.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.7 -13.6 3.5   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 30,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,746 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,556 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.9 34.0 16.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.4 60.7 8.0 – Net Position: 30,302 -43,720 13,418 – Gross Longs: 58,830 55,747 26,556 – Gross Shorts: 28,528 99,467 13,138 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 52.6 56.0 21.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.7 -6.2 21.0   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 25,575 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,117 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,692 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.7 37.9 10.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.1 54.9 5.6 – Net Position: 25,575 -34,754 9,179 – Gross Longs: 80,940 77,398 20,535 – Gross Shorts: 55,365 112,152 11,356 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.8 35.6 78.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.4 -8.4 19.3   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 17,540 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,408 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,132 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 52.1 30.6 13.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.0 67.4 5.1 – Net Position: 17,540 -22,887 5,347 – Gross Longs: 32,462 19,079 8,495 – Gross Shorts: 14,922 41,966 3,148 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.1 76.3 36.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.8 -17.1 -4.4   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -429 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,000 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.7 50.0 18.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 43.8 35.9 14.3 – Net Position: -1,429 1,118 311 – Gross Longs: 2,030 3,953 1,444 – Gross Shorts: 3,459 2,835 1,133 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 13.4 83.0 63.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.9 -12.3 36.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Bonds Speculators raised their 10-Year Treasuries bearish bets to 6-week high

COT Bonds Speculators raised their 10-Year Treasuries bearish bets to 6-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 26.02.2022 19:33
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT bonds data was the large increase in bearish bets for the 10-Year Bonds. The speculative bearish position in the 10-Year jumped this week by -111,029 contracts and marked the largest one-week rise in bearish positions since November 2nd, a span of sixteen weeks. This decline in sentiment has pushed the overall 10-Year spec positioning to the most bearish level of the past six weeks. Most of the bonds markets we cover saw an increase in their bearish bets this week as the Federal Reserve central bank is widely expected to raise their benchmark interest rate in March. Joining the 10-Year (-111,029 contracts) with speculator weakness this week were the Eurodollar (-89,630 contracts), 2-Year Bond (-4,201 contracts),  Fed Funds (-49,473 contracts), 5-Year Bond (-155,821 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-4,242 contracts). The Ultra 10-Year (9,672 contracts) and Long US Bond (10,107 contracts) saw small improvement in their speculator contracts this week. Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index Eurodollar 11,350,313 52 -2,382,867 0 2,830,166 100 -447,299 6 FedFunds 2,062,168 76 -26,952 36 41,655 65 -14,703 25 2-Year 2,163,983 15 -119,959 58 218,056 68 -98,097 1 Long T-Bond 1,223,515 53 -14,738 88 43,269 34 -28,531 30 10-Year 4,083,463 70 -285,092 28 543,178 90 -258,086 19 5-Year 4,295,789 63 -347,236 19 483,375 77 -136,139 44   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,382,867 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -89,630 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,293,237 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.7 74.1 4.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.7 49.1 8.5 – Net Position: -2,382,867 2,830,166 -447,299 – Gross Longs: 536,990 8,405,647 522,154 – Gross Shorts: 2,919,857 5,575,481 969,453 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 6.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.2 12.9 -13.5   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -26,952 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -49,473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,521 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.8 75.1 2.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.1 73.1 3.2 – Net Position: -26,952 41,655 -14,703 – Gross Longs: 161,357 1,549,551 50,750 – Gross Shorts: 188,309 1,507,896 65,453 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.3 64.9 25.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.0 -3.4 -29.9   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -119,959 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,201 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -115,758 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.1 76.5 7.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.6 66.4 11.5 – Net Position: -119,959 218,056 -98,097 – Gross Longs: 261,710 1,655,912 150,668 – Gross Shorts: 381,669 1,437,856 248,765 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.0 67.5 1.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -34.7 44.2 -13.4   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -347,236 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -155,821 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -191,415 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.3 78.2 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.4 67.0 12.7 – Net Position: -347,236 483,375 -136,139 – Gross Longs: 314,612 3,360,252 409,662 – Gross Shorts: 661,848 2,876,877 545,801 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 19.3 76.9 43.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.7 -10.0 34.1   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -285,092 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -111,029 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -174,063 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.6 74.3 9.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.6 61.0 15.8 – Net Position: -285,092 543,178 -258,086 – Gross Longs: 432,764 3,034,786 385,175 – Gross Shorts: 717,856 2,491,608 643,261 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.1 89.8 18.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.1 -7.3 0.2   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of 23,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,672 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,871 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.5 71.3 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.9 63.6 18.9 – Net Position: 23,543 112,921 -136,464 – Gross Longs: 226,775 1,045,206 140,723 – Gross Shorts: 203,232 932,285 277,187 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.0 75.9 33.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.7 5.8 29.9   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -14,738 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,845 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.6 72.9 14.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.9 69.4 16.6 – Net Position: -14,738 43,269 -28,531 – Gross Longs: 130,266 891,876 174,017 – Gross Shorts: 145,004 848,607 202,548 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.1 33.9 29.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.1 -8.4 -19.0   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -334,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,242 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -330,139 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.0 79.7 11.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.8 57.6 9.2 – Net Position: -334,381 297,783 36,598 – Gross Longs: 80,638 1,072,855 159,934 – Gross Shorts: 415,019 775,072 123,336 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.8 60.7 54.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.1 1.4 15.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Forex Speculators pushed their Euro Currency bullish bets to 32-week high

COT Forex Speculators pushed their Euro Currency bullish bets to 32-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 26.02.2022 20:04
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further rise in bullish bets in the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculators raised their bullish bets for a third straight week this week and for the ninth time in the past ten weeks. Over this ten-week time-frame, Euro bets have gained by a total of +71,185 contracts, going from -10,162 net positions on December 12th to a total of +59,306 net positions through this Tuesday the 22nd of February (please note that this is a couple days before the Russian invasion of Ukraine). Overall, the current Euro standing is at the most bullish level of the past thirty-two weeks, dating back to July 13th when the net position was at +59,713 contracts. Joining the Euro (11,725 contracts) with positive speculator changes this week were the yen (2,975 contracts), Brazil real (685 contracts), US Dollar Index (698 contracts), Australian dollar (2,614 contracts), Russian ruble (3,353 contracts) and the Mexican peso (7,851 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Swiss franc (-1,272 contracts), British pound sterling (-8,046 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,218 contracts), Canadian dollar (-2,917 contracts) and Bitcoin (-68 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,922 78 36,084 88 -41,368 6 5,284 74 EUR 696,682 82 59,306 53 -98,050 48 38,744 39 GBP 188,443 31 -5,809 70 10,070 36 -4,261 47 JPY 194,169 51 -63,187 28 82,480 77 -19,293 8 CHF 47,339 24 -10,987 51 19,110 52 -8,123 39 CAD 140,305 24 9,253 57 -14,143 47 4,890 40 AUD 192,579 77 -84,080 7 96,072 91 -11,992 23 NZD 56,636 56 -11,551 52 13,908 52 -2,357 25 MXN 171,299 36 16,825 35 -21,038 64 4,213 61 RUB 38,673 34 19,517 60 -20,053 40 536 49 BRL 94,577 100 24,445 100 -27,081 0 2,636 97 Bitcoin 11,007 59 -283 91 -256 0 539 25   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 36,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,386 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.6 5.0 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.9 80.3 3.1 – Net Position: 36,084 -41,368 5,284 – Gross Longs: 43,726 2,742 6,969 – Gross Shorts: 7,642 44,110 1,685 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.7 to 1 0.1 to 1 4.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.0 5.9 74.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.1 4.6 -10.6   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 59,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,725 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,581 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.7 54.5 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.2 68.6 7.3 – Net Position: 59,306 -98,050 38,744 – Gross Longs: 214,195 379,583 89,334 – Gross Shorts: 154,889 477,633 50,590 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.2 48.0 38.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.4 -18.3 18.8   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,809 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,046 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,237 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.4 61.8 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.5 56.4 15.1 – Net Position: -5,809 10,070 -4,261 – Gross Longs: 42,249 116,372 24,154 – Gross Shorts: 48,058 106,302 28,415 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.8 35.6 46.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.8 -16.5 9.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -63,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,162 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.7 83.5 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.2 41.0 19.1 – Net Position: -63,187 82,480 -19,293 – Gross Longs: 10,976 162,044 17,881 – Gross Shorts: 74,163 79,564 37,174 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.1 77.2 8.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.4 -12.8 3.4   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,272 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,715 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.0 71.2 20.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.2 30.9 37.6 – Net Position: -10,987 19,110 -8,123 – Gross Longs: 3,785 33,718 9,691 – Gross Shorts: 14,772 14,608 17,814 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.8 52.3 39.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.8 4.0 -0.5   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 9,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,917 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,170 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.0 41.6 21.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.4 51.7 18.1 – Net Position: 9,253 -14,143 4,890 – Gross Longs: 47,661 58,345 30,327 – Gross Shorts: 38,408 72,488 25,437 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.6 47.3 39.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.1 -11.2 -1.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -84,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,694 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.0 81.7 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.7 31.9 15.8 – Net Position: -84,080 96,072 -11,992 – Gross Longs: 11,553 157,416 18,459 – Gross Shorts: 95,633 61,344 30,451 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.9 90.6 23.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.9 -5.6 0.3   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,551 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,333 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.6 62.6 4.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.0 38.1 8.8 – Net Position: -11,551 13,908 -2,357 – Gross Longs: 17,343 35,481 2,608 – Gross Shorts: 28,894 21,573 4,965 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 51.8 24.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.9 5.6 -7.5   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,825 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,974 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.5 53.0 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.7 65.3 1.7 – Net Position: 16,825 -21,038 4,213 – Gross Longs: 72,846 90,784 7,091 – Gross Shorts: 56,021 111,822 2,878 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.5 64.0 60.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.1 -9.3 4.2   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 24,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,760 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 55.0 40.2 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 68.9 2.0 – Net Position: 24,445 -27,081 2,636 – Gross Longs: 51,990 38,039 4,541 – Gross Shorts: 27,545 65,120 1,905 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 97.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 46.6 -49.2 31.8   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 19,517 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,164 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 58.5 35.9 5.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.0 87.8 4.2 – Net Position: 19,517 -20,053 536 – Gross Longs: 22,625 13,895 2,152 – Gross Shorts: 3,108 33,948 1,616 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.3 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.6 39.6 49.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 23.4 -20.6 -25.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -68 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -215 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.2 2.9 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 79.8 5.3 7.3 – Net Position: -283 -256 539 – Gross Longs: 8,501 322 1,338 – Gross Shorts: 8,784 578 799 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.7 19.3 25.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.1 -6.1 -0.5   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 28th February – 4th March

Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 28th February – 4th March

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 26.02.2022 19:00
As we head into a new month, Boris Schlossberg of BKForex takes over the reins for our Trade Zone Trading Week Ahead for the month of March. Amidst an increasingly volatile background driven by geopolitical tensions, Boris gives his take on the assets that matter this week, looking at current short-term positions for Gold and Oil, as well as potential setups for indices and forex from both a technical and fundamental perspective. Watch the video below to get all the insight ahead of market open today. Boris Schlossberg is Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management, Co-Founder of BKForex.com, and Managing Editor of 60secondinvestor.com. Widely known as a leading foreign exchange expert, Boris has more than three decades of financial market experience. In 2007, while still at FXCM, Boris started BKForex with Ms. Kathy Lien. A year later, Boris joined Global Futures & Forex Ltd as director of currency research where he provided research and analysis to clients and managed a global foreign exchange analysis team with Kathy Lien. Since 2012 Boris has focused exclusively on running BKForex.com where he generates trade ideas and designs algorithms for the FX market in partnership with Ms. Lien. He is the author of “Technical Analysis of the Currency Market” and “Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Beat Wall Street at its Own Game”, both of which are published by Wiley. In 2020 Mr. Schlossberg started www.60secondinvestor.com a free website that distils the best of institutional investment research for retail investors. Important Data Releases & Events this Week Tuesday CNY Manufacturing PMI AUD RBA Interest Rate Decison Wednesday EUR German Inflation Rate, Unemployment Rate EUR Eurozone CPI CAD GDP USD Markit Manufacturing PMI AUD GDP Thursday CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Friday USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Saturday USD Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate The post Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 28th February – 4th March appeared first on Eightcap.
Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 28th February – 4th March - 27.02.2022

Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 28th February – 4th March - 27.02.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 27.02.2022 19:00
As we head into a new month, Boris Schlossberg of BKForex takes over the reins for our Trade Zone Trading Week Ahead for the month of March. Amidst an increasingly volatile background driven by geopolitical tensions, Boris gives his take on the assets that matter this week, looking at current short-term positions for Gold and Oil, as well as potential setups for indices and forex from both a technical and fundamental perspective. Watch the video below to get all the insight ahead of market open today. Boris Schlossberg is Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management, Co-Founder of BKForex.com, and Managing Editor of 60secondinvestor.com. Widely known as a leading foreign exchange expert, Boris has more than three decades of financial market experience. In 2007, while still at FXCM, Boris started BKForex with Ms. Kathy Lien. A year later, Boris joined Global Futures & Forex Ltd as director of currency research where he provided research and analysis to clients and managed a global foreign exchange analysis team with Kathy Lien. Since 2012 Boris has focused exclusively on running BKForex.com where he generates trade ideas and designs algorithms for the FX market in partnership with Ms. Lien. He is the author of “Technical Analysis of the Currency Market” and “Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Beat Wall Street at its Own Game”, both of which are published by Wiley. In 2020 Mr. Schlossberg started www.60secondinvestor.com a free website that distils the best of institutional investment research for retail investors. Important Data Releases & Events this Week Tuesday CNY Manufacturing PMI AUD RBA Interest Rate Decison Wednesday EUR German Inflation Rate, Unemployment Rate EUR Eurozone CPI CAD GDP USD Markit Manufacturing PMI AUD GDP Thursday CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Friday USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Saturday USD Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate The post Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 28th February – 4th March appeared first on Eightcap.
What to do with your free capital in Russia

What to do with your free capital in Russia

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 01.03.2022 13:30
The main question that ruble traders ask themselves is whether the Central Bank managed to prevent a collapse in the exchange rate? At the moment, the euro is officially worth 104.4, and the dollar is 93.5.According to a leading analyst at FxPro, the ruble is recovering from the second shock wave that hit on Monday, when the Central Bank was unable to use foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the exchange rate. The dollar and the euro declined somewhat, but these levels still can hardly be called sustainable. An increase in the interest rate has a relatively long-term effect, while a liquidity crisis affects quotes "here and now".A steady reversal to growth in the Russian currency should be expected no earlier than when we receive reliable signals from the EU and the US. Until then, downward impulses may alternate with relatively short pullback periods. In our opinion, some stabilization of the exchange rate may occur in the range of 100-110 since this is a low enough level for traders to start picking up the ruble in the short term. Of course, this is only if we exclude the scenario of further tightening of sanctions.There is another issue that worries the consumers who are now in Russia. We are talking, among other things, about foreign citizens who came to Russia to do business or for personal reasons. Many of them have free balances in the region of 100 thousand rubbles in their bank accounts. As a rule, businesspeople short-term invest capital or acquire their own currency. The question arises of what to do with this capital now.In our opinion, it is better to save free money for force majeure, since in the current circumstances, it is worth increasing the capital and abandoning all unplanned purchases. If you are in Russia, then it is better to keep your savings in rubbles since it is not profitable to buy currency in banks now, as the exchange rate difference is too large.Of course, in the coming weeks and months, equipment, and all imported goods in the territory of the Russian Federation will rise in price significantly. At the same time, the value of cash soon may manifest itself more than ever. This is confirmed by queues at ATMs and multiple increases in cash in the hands of Russians.Many right now are looking towards buying a new car from a showroom with the prospect of selling it in a few months at a higher price (considering the sanctions).If your capital is even larger, it perhaps remains only to wait since the withdrawal to foreign accounts is limited. Thus, Russian residents will not be able to credit foreign currency to their accounts and deposits in foreign banks and brokers. The ban takes effect today.
Told You, Risk On

Told You, Risk On

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 01.03.2022 15:45
S&P 500 erased opening downside, not unexpectedly. Markets say we‘ve turned the corner, and while the medium-term correction isn‘t over, we‘re going higher for now. The tired performance in credit markets suggests that the pace of the upswing would indeed likely slow, but the dips are being bought – even the 4,300 overnight level held unchallenged.VIX is slowly calming down, and it wouldn‘t be a one-way ride. I hate to say it, but we‘re trading closer to the more complacent end of the volatility spectrum – that‘s though in line with my assumption of toned down price appreciation expectations that I discussed on Sunday and yesterday:(…) While we made local lows on Thursday after all, the upside momentum is likely to slow down next – this week would bring a consolidation within a very headline sensitive environment. It‘s looking good for the bulls at the moment – till the dynamic of events beyond markets changes.Inflation isn‘t wavering, and I‘m not looking for its meaningful deceleration given the events since Thursday, no. Friday is likely to mark a buying opportunity beyond oil and copper – these longs have very good prospects. Another part of the S&P 500 upswing explanation were the still fine fresh orders data – while the real economy has noticeably decelerated (and Q1 GDP growth would be underwhelming), solid figures would return in the latter quarters of 2022. That‘s also behind the gold downswing on Friday, which hadn‘t been confirmed by the miners – the very bright future ahead for precious metals is undisputable. And the same goes for crude oil as oil stocks foretell – the fresh long crude trade together with long S&P 500 one, are both solidly in the black already.Precious metals have found a floor, and aren‘t selling off either. In fact, they are looking at a great week ahead, and the same goes for crude oil followed to a lesser degree by copper. Weekend developments on the financial front triggered a rush into cryptos, and the bullish prospects I presented yesterday, are coming to fruition.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookDaily S&P 500 consolidation as the bulls did shake off the opening setback rather easily – and the same goes for the late session trip approaching 4,310s. Expecting more volatility of the current flavor, and higher prices then.Credit MarketsHYG managed to close above Friday‘s values, and the overall bond market strength bodes well for risk appetite ahead. Let‘s consolidate first, and march higher later.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are consolidating the high ground gained, miners aren‘t yielding, and silver weakness yesterday actually bodes well for the very short term. Launching pad before the next upleg.Crude OilCrude oil bears have a hard time from keeping black gold below $100. The table is clearly set for further gains – the chart can be hardly more bullish.CopperCopper is a laggard, but will still participate in the upswing. Its current underperformance as highlighten by yesterday‘s downswing, is a bit too odd, i.e. bound to be reversed.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto bulls were indeed the stronger party, and similarly to gold, it‘s hard to imagine a deep dive coming to frution. I‘m looking for the safety trade to be be ebbing and flowing, now with some crypto participation sprinkled on top.SummaryS&P 500 turnaround goes on, and we‘re undergoing a consolidation that‘s as calm as can be given the recent volatility. Credit markets and the dollar though continue favoring the paper asset bulls now, but their gains would pale in comparison with select commodities such as oil and gold‘s newfound floor. Even agrifoods look to be sold down a bit too hard, and I‘m not looking for them to be languishing next as much as they have been over the last two trading days. Cryptos upswing highlights the present global uncertainties faced – as I have written on Thursday that the world has changed, the same applies for weekend banking events being reflected in the markets yesterday.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) Will Be Supported, But Probable Massive Sale Of Russian Gold Can Hinder The Rise

Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) Will Be Supported, But Probable Massive Sale Of Russian Gold Can Hinder The Rise

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 01.03.2022 16:01
  Russia underestimated Ukraine’s fierce defense. Instead of quick conquest, the war is still going on. The same applies to pulling the rope between gold bulls and bears. It was supposed to be a blitzkrieg. The plan was simple: within 72 hours Russian troops were to take control of Kyiv, stage a coup, overthrow the democratically elected Ukrainian authorities, and install a pro-Russian puppet government. Well, the blitzkrieg clearly failed. The war has been going on for five days already, and Kyiv (and other major cities) remains in Ukrainian hands, while the Russians suffer great losses. Indeed, the Ukrainians are fighting valiantly. The Kremlin apparently did not expect such high morale among the troops and civilians, as well as such excellent organization and preparation. Meanwhile, the morale among Russian soldiers is reported to be pathetically low, as they have no motivation to fight with culturally close Ukrainians (many of whom speak perfect Russian). The invaders are also poorly equipped, and the whole operation was logistically unprepared (as the assumption was a quick capitulation by Ukrainian forces and a speedy collapse of the government in Kyiv). Well, pride comes before a fall. What’s more, the West is united as never before (Germany did a historic U-turn in its foreign and energy policies) and has already imposed relatively heavy economic sanctions on Russia (including cutting off some of the country’s banks from SWIFT), and donated weapons to Ukraine. However – and unfortunately – the war is far from being ended. Military analysts expect a second wave of Russian troops that can break the resistance of the Ukrainians, who have fewer forces and cannot relieve the soldiers just like the other side. Indeed, satellite pictures show a large convoy of Russian forces near Kyiv. Russia is also gathering troops in Belarus and – sadly – started shelling residential quarters in Ukrainian cities. According to US intelligence, Belarusian soldiers could join Russian forces. The coming days will be crucial for the fate of the conflict.   Implications for Gold What does the war between Russia and Ukraine imply for the gold market? Well, initially, the conflict was supportive of gold prices. As the chart below shows, the price of gold (London Fix) soared to $1,936 on Thursday. However, the rally was very short-lived, as the very next day, gold prices fell to $1,885. Thus, gold’s performance looked like “buy the rumor, sell the news.” However, yesterday, the price of the yellow metal returned above $1,900, so some geopolitical risk premium may still be present in the gold market. Anyway, it seems that I was right in urging investors to focus on fundamentals and to not make long-term investments merely based on geopolitical risks, the impact of which is often only temporary. Having said that, gold may continue its bullish trend, at least for a while. After all, the war not only increases risk aversion, but it also improves gold’s fundamental outlook. First of all, the Fed is now less likely to raise the federal funds rate in March. It will probably still tighten its monetary policy, but in a less aggressive way. For example, the market odds of a 50-basis point hike decreased from 41.4% one week ago to 12.4% now. What’s more, we are observing increasing energy prices, which could increase inflation further. The combination of higher inflation and a less hawkish Fed should be fundamentally positive for gold prices, as it implies low real interest rates. On the other hand, gold may find itself under downward pressure from selling reserves to raise liquidity. I'm referring to the fact that the West has cut Russia off from the SWIFT system in part. In such a situation, Russia would have to sell part of its massive gold reserves, which could exert downward pressure on prices. Hence, the upcoming days may be quite volatile for the gold market. At the end of my article, I would like to point out that although the war in Ukraine entails implications for the precious metals market, it is mostly a humanitarian tragedy. My thoughts and prayers are with all the casualties of the conflict and their families. I hope that Ukraine will withstand the invasion and peace will return soon! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Will S&P 500 (SPX) Go Up? On Monday It Decreased By 0.24%

Will S&P 500 (SPX) Go Up? On Monday It Decreased By 0.24%

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 01.03.2022 15:31
  The S&P 500 went sideways yesterday, as investors hesitated following the recent rally. Will the short-term uptrend resume? The broad stock market index lost 0.24% on Monday, after gaining 2.2% on Friday and 1.5% on Thursday. The sentiment improved following the Thursday’s rebound, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty following the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict news. On Thursday, the broad stock market reached the low of 4,114.65 and it was 704 points or 14.6% below the January 4 record high of 4,818.62. And yesterday it went closer to the 4,400 level. For now, it looks like an upward correction. However, it may also be a more meaningful reversal following a deep 15% correction from the early January record high. The market sharply reversed its short-term downtrend, but will it continue the advance? This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.2% lower and we may see some more volatility. The nearest important resistance level remains at 4,400 and the next resistance level is at 4,450-4,500. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,300-4,350, among others. The S&P 500 index broke slightly above the downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Remains Above the 4,300 Level Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. On Thursday it sold off after breaking below the 4,200 level. Since Friday it is trading along the 4,300 mark. We are still expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index fluctuated following the recent rally yesterday. This morning it is expected to open 0.2% lower and we may see some further volatility. Obviously, the markets will continue to react to the Russia-Ukraine conflict news. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index bounced from the new low on Thursday after falling almost 15% from the early January record high. We are maintaining our speculative long position. We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Decentralized Autonomous Organisation - Another Addition To Our Personal Dictionaries

Crypto Prices: On Tuesday Bitcoin (BTC) Added 1.9%, Ether (ETH) Gained 2.5%, Solana (SOL) Increased By 6.7%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 02.03.2022 08:44
In the middle of Tuesday, the first cryptocurrency was approaching $45K, but then fell slightly during the American session along with stock indices. BTC showed resilience despite the decline in other risky assets and the growth of the dollar. World markets were declining following the banking sector, which felt the severity of Russia's partial disconnection from Swift (by 80%). However, this situation does little harm to the demand for cryptocurrencies. On the Binance exchange, the volume of trading in ruble pairs with BTC and USDT has increased significantly. Crypto funds recorded $36 million in net asset inflows during the week, up from $239 million over the past five weeks, according to CoinShares. Institutions are also looking for alternative vehicles amid mounting military tensions and government capital controls. According to Glassnode, crypto whales have been aggressively buying bitcoin over the past few weeks, which could signal a local bottom has been reached. The last time such a situation was observed was in May last year, when, after a two-month consolidation, the market resumed growth at the end of July. Technically, Bitcoin started March with growth. Thus, BTC has risen in price by 1.9% over the day to $44,100. Ethereum has grown by 2.5%, approaching $3,000. Other leading altcoins from the top ten add with maximum momentum such as Solana (+6.7%) and Terra (+5.2%) The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, grew by 2% over the day, to $1.94 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index is hovering around 43%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index added another point to 52 moving into neutral territory.
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Recovers Slowly

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Recovers Slowly

Jing Ren Jing Ren 02.03.2022 09:06
XAUUSD grinds rising trendline Gold recovered after the first round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia ended without a resolution. The precious metal found support over 1885. The rising trendline from early February indicates that the general direction is still up despite a choppy path. The previous peak at 1974 is now a fresh resistance and its breach could send the price to the psychological level of 2000. The downside risk is a fall below the said support. Then 1852, near the 30-day moving average, would be the bulls’ second line of defense. AUDUSD attempts reversal The Australian dollar steadied after the RBA warned that energy prices could flare up inflation. A break above the previous high (0.7285) shows buyers’ strong commitment despite sharp liquidation. Sentiment swiftly recovered and may attract more buying interest. An overbought RSI may temporarily limit the upside. And the bulls could be waiting for a pullback to accumulate. 0.7220 is the closest support. A bullish close above the January peak at 0.7310 could initiate a reversal in the medium-term and extend gains towards 0.7400. CADJPY bounces back The Canadian dollar clawed back losses after the Q4 GDP beat expectations. A jump above 90.70 has prompted sellers to cover their bets, opening the door for a potential reversal. 91.10 is the next resistance and its breach could propel the loonie to this year’s high at 92.00. On the downside, the psychological level of 90.00 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. Otherwise, a drop to 89.30 would suggest that sentiment remains fragile. In turn, this would place the pair under pressure once again.
Speaking Of Rallying Chinese Stocks, Quite Unchanged Bitcoin Price, BoE, Fed And Central Bank Of Turkey Interest Rates Decisions

Getting Rid Of Russian Commodities Affects And Will Affect Markets

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 02.03.2022 10:04
Brent crude prices have jumped 13% since the start of the week, trading above $110 a barrel at the time of writing. These are the highest levels since July 2014. Meanwhile, the ruble continues to retreat against the dollar and euro.  USDRUB is now trading at 106.40 (+5.5%) on the Moscow Exchange, and EURRUB is above 118 (+5%). In both cases, rates are approaching the highs set at the start of trading on Monday. As would be expected, the announced support measures from the Central Bank are softening the fall but not reversing it. The one-way movement in oil prices is since buyers in Europe are increasingly refusing to buy Russian oil, trying to find a replacement for it.  This shift in priorities is visible in the sharp widening of the spread between Urals and Brent. Historically, and without various restrictions, the spread between these grades is $2-3 in favour of the lighter Brent. Now it is more than $17 as buyers are not chartering new shipments. Canada is refusing to buy Russian oil, and the UK (which is much more dependent on energy imports) is considering options for sanctions against the industry.  The European Parliament has passed a resolution calling for EU oil and gas imports restrictions. Thus, Russia has failed to fully benefit from higher prices, losing both in sales volumes and facing an actual fall in selling prices.  The potential for already announced measures destabilises the market, setting Russia up to start using energy or agricultural products as a retaliatory measure. While it is hard to imagine the world without Russian energy in the coming months - it will be as chaotic as the oil crisis in 1973, with the oil price soaring fourfold in six months of the embargo. We may see a smaller price jump but with much wider economic consequences. It is ironic that Europe and Western countries, in general, were helped by the Soviet Union. Now consumers are left to rely on the Middle East and its reserves.  Yesterday, Biden announced an agreed sale of 60m barrels to 30 countries. Still, the market reaction to these announcements indicates that the market was expecting more, and the announced volumes are not enough. It is hard to say the theoretical limit to oil's rise. The Brent price could surpass the 2012 highs of $128 in a matter of days or aim for a historical record of $147.
Crude Oil (WTI) - USOIL Price Is Close 11-Year-High

Crude Oil (WTI) - USOIL Price Is Close 11-Year-High

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 02.03.2022 11:03
Today we’re taking a look at oil from a longer-term view after price briefly tested $111. We all know the driver for this month’s surge in the price of oil. Our question as price has started to move back to levels not seen since 2011 is how much further does it have to go? We have to start looking at the conflict in Europe and think has it started to be factored into price? Obviously today that answer could be no as we’ve seen over 11% added to USOUSD (WTI) this week. The reasons for this rally are not exactly like what we saw drive price in 2008. Yes, supply disruptions drove price and supply disruptions are a factor here, but this time it’s centred around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. What happens if the two nations form a peace agreement or on a darker note what happens if Russia escalates the situation? De-escalation we would be looking for price to fall but on escalation, you would think that the rally would continue. Price-wise oil has reached heavy resistance formed back in 2011-2013. The ending diagonal that formed in this resistance actually sunk the last rally above $100. Price looks overextended at this point but the drivers of the rally can’t be discounted. We are looking to see if buyers can break and hold above $112 – $115. A hold above these points could start to set up a new shift in pricing. It could also set off further inflation worries and start to develop global growth worries which could alter current central bank plans. In the levels discussed we see solid supply. It will be a firm statement if buyers can get comfortable back above those levels. From there if dynamics stay supportive, anything could be possible. Traders will need to keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions to see if the drivers continue to feed demand. If things change and price fails to break $112-$115 we could see a fast pullback. The $80 area could be the first port of support. Oil Monthly Chart Chart source, Net Dania Finance chart Uncertainty presents volatility Currently, our margin levels remain unchanged across all instruments and we offer one of the best swap conditions on key instruments such as Gold. Make the most out of market movements right now with Eightcap. For more information on market updates and our swap rates, please contact our award-winning customer service team. The post CFD Update: Oil set to retest 2011 highs? appeared first on Eightcap.
Indices attempt to recover as investors remain concerned over escalating conflict

Indices attempt to recover as investors remain concerned over escalating conflict

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 02.03.2022 13:28
US indices are set to start today’s session lower as the conflict in Ukraine threatens supply chains and drives commodity prices higher. During yesterday’s trading session, the S&P 500 dropped 1.55%, Dow Jones moved 1.76% lower and Nasdaq declined 1.59% while the Russell 2000 dropped 1.93%. Intense shelling of Kharkiv was reported overnight and Russian attacks on residential areas and civilian buildings are becoming more frequent while the west continues to evaluate an escalation of sanctions, some of which have led to Sberbank, Russia's largest bank, informing that it will be shutting its European market business as it is no longer able to supply liquidity to its units in Europe. Despite some important data expected from the US, including the ADP employment report as well as the FED chair Powell testifying in congress, investors remain focused on further headlines and developments from the ongoing conflict in eastern europe which is sending shockwaves across markets. While negotiations are set to continue between the opposing forces, it remains to be seen if these will manage to and provide some relief Oil prices reach record levels despite strategic petroleum reserve releaseConcerns over possible disruptions on the oil market are sending Brent prices to the sky as WTI reached the highest level since 2013. Brent OIL is trading almost 60% year-to-date higher and it may not be over as the geopolitical tensions escalate and more companies continue to exit their shares in Russian energy companies with some of the most notable being BP and Shell. The release of strategic petroleum reserve release did little to ease upward pressure and OPEC+ is unlikely to decide on a bigger than 400,000 barrel hike today while traders also await the EIA petroleum report from the US, which is set to show an increase of 2.8 MB, after yesterday's API report indicated a 6.1 MB inventory draw. Unless the geopolitical situation begins to ease, or there are some major developments which would allow a noticeable increase in supply to reach the markets from elsewhere, we could be seeing a continuation of this trend that will ultimately have cascading effects across most asset classes and on consumer prices which are all related to energy prices.
Real Assets, Bonds and New Profits

Real Assets, Bonds and New Profits

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 02.03.2022 15:49
S&P 500 broke through 4,350s in what appears a back and forth consolidation, for now. Credit markets aren‘t leading to the downside – HYG merely corrected within the risk-on sentiment. Stocks and bonds are starting to live with the new realities, and aren‘t undergoing tectonic shifts either way no matter what‘s happening in the real world. Expect to see some chop not of the most volatile flavor next, and for the bulls to step in in the near future.What‘s most interesting about bonds now, is the relenting pressure on the Fed to raise rates – the 2-year yield is moving down noticeably, and that means much practical progress on fighting inflation can‘t be expected. Not that there was much to start with, but the expectations of the hawkish Fed talk turning into action, are being dialed back. The current geopolitical events provide a scene to which attention is fixated while inflation fires keep raging on with renewed vigor (beyond energies) – just as I was calling for a little deceleration in CPI towards the year end bringing it to probably 5-6%, this figure is starting to look too optimistic on the price stability front.Predictable consequence are strong appreciation days across the board in commodities and precious metals – let‘s enjoy the sizable open profits especially in oil and copper. I told you weeks ago that real assets are where to look for in portfolio gains – and even the modest S&P 500 long profits taken off the table yesterday, are taking my portfolio performance chart to fresh highs. I hope you‘ve been enjoying my calls, and are secure in the turmoil around. Way more profits are on the way, and I am not even discussing the lastest agrifoods calls concerning wheat and corn, for all the right reasons (just check out the key exporters overview)…Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis time, the S&P 500 bulls didn‘t shake off the selling pressure – the broad retreat though smacks of temporary setback. As in that the direction to the downside hasn‘t been decided yet – I‘m looking for the buyers to dip their toes here.Credit MarketsHYG downswing didn‘t attract too many sellers, and was partially bought, which means that the pendulum is ready to shift (have a go at shifting) the other way now.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are doing just great, and can be counted on to extend gains. Remember about the rate raising reappreciation that I talked in the long opening part of today‘s analysis – at central banks, that‘s where to look financially.Crude OilCrude oil bears have been taken to the woodshed, except that not at all discreetly. Let‘s keep riding this bull that had brought great profits already, for some more – as I have learned, I was a lone voice calling for more upside before last week‘s events.CopperCopper is a laggard, but still taking part in the upswing. The prior underperformance which I took issue with yesterday, was indeed a bit too odd.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto bulls are consolidating well reasoned and deserved gains, and the circumstances don‘t favor a steep downswing really. The current tight range is likely to be resolved to the upside in due course.SummaryS&P 500 turnaround is not a rickety-free ride, but goes on at its own shaky pace. Stocks are likely to consolidate today as bonds turn a little more in the risk-on side, which reflects last but not least the looming reassessment of hawkish Fed policies. That‘s where the puck is (and will increasingly be even more so as Wayne Gretzky would say) financially, and I discussed that at length in the opening part of today‘s analysis – have a good look. Precious metals and commodities already know they won‘t be crushed by any new Paul Volcker. Enjoy the profitable rides presented !Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Rise Of Natural Gas Price (Dutch TTF) Is Incredible

Rise Of Natural Gas Price (Dutch TTF) Is Incredible

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 02.03.2022 15:44
The energy market is very sensitive to fluctuations in supply and demand. For example, a 20% drop in demand in March-May 2020 took away 70% of the oil price at some point. Next, we saw the inverse relationship: a moderate production deficit (even with significant reserves in previous months) was enough to send oil prices to 8-year highs. The same applies to exchange prices for gas. At some point last year, they were approaching $2000 per 1,000 cubic meters, quickly falling back to 800. Today, its value exceeds $2200, and this is hardly the limit. With such sensitive energy prices, it is difficult to imagine a reliable model of how much prices can rise at a critical moment because Russia provides about 20% of oil supplies and 30% of gas to Europe. If we see a political decision (by the EU & US or Russia) or a business decision (if foreign partners refuse to buy energy from Russian companies due to the threat of sanctions), then we may see a complete cessation of oil and gas purchases and prices may repeatedly skyrocket, as was the case in 1973 with the OPEC oil embargo. However, under these conditions, a grey market will emerge, as in the case of Iran, which sold its oil at a deep discount to Asia, mostly to China. It is more likely that the West is set to phase out Russian energy, indirectly holding back investment in the industry and blocking access to technology. As a result, this will lead to a reduction in the share of the Russian Federation on the world stage. The current situation is accelerating long-term plans to redirect energy exports from Europe to China. However, these are projects that will begin to pay dividends only in a few years. Here and now, politics could turn into a price shock on a much larger scale than we have seen in the last 30 years. The scale of the current state of affairs is comparable to that of the 1970s.
The Put / Call Ratio - A Technique Used To Gauge Market Extremes

The Put / Call Ratio - A Technique Used To Gauge Market Extremes

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 02.03.2022 21:32
Perhaps you’ve heard of the “Put / Call Ratio” (PCR) and been unsure of exactly what it is or when and how to use it.First, a quick review of what Calls and Puts are. Calls are option contracts that increase in value from a RISE in the price of the underlying stock or index. Puts are option contracts that increase in value from a DROP in the price of the underlying stock or index.Let’s jump in and see what’s “under the hood” and how we might use that to better inform our decision-making as traders and investors.What Is the Put / Call Ratio?The PCR is a contrarian indicator based on the idea that market participants tend to get too bearish or bullish shortly before a reversal is about to materialize. When the market is at a point of extreme bearishness, participants tend to buy more Puts than usual. Conversely, when the market is at a point of extreme bullishness, participants tend to buy more Calls than normal. Contrarian logic suggests that most participants tend to be wrong when the market is near inflection points.Mathematically the Put / Call Ratio is simply the number of Puts divided by the number of Calls. A value of 1 would indicate that the same number of Calls and Puts are being purchased. A value greater than 1 indicates more Puts than Calls purchased. It follows that a value below 1 means that more Calls than Puts are purchased.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!The PCR can be calculated using either open interest or volume of contracts. It can be calculated for individual stocks and for indexes. Most trading and charting platforms have several versions of the PCR available for the major indexes. Indexes generally have charts available, while individual stocks may only have daily numerical value readily available. The PCR is generally more useful as an overall market sentiment indicator for the major indexes like the S&P 500. For most underlying, including major indexes like the S&P 500, the PCR tends to be below 1 much of the time. That makes some sense, as major indexes tend to have a long-term bullish bias. But in times of elevated fear, Put buying tends to be elevated in a rush to buy portfolio “insurance”. Outright bets on a market decline can add to that volume.How Do I Use the pcr?It helps to understand what “normal” behavior is for the number of Calls and Puts purchased for the particular index or stock. For an index like the S&P 500, a PCR of 0.9 or above suggests heavy Put buying and is typically seen as bullish from the contrarian view. For reference, at the height of the dot-com bubble in March 2000, the PCR dropped to as low as 0.39. Lots of calls were being purchased as the market was peaking.Let’s look at some recent examples where we see the Put / Call Ratio at extreme levels. Below we see a chart of the S&P 500 displayed with Heikin Ashi candles overlayed with the PCR (magenta line).In the first instance (circled in magenta), we see a low in the PCR where significantly more Calls than Puts were purchased. When interpreted as a contrarian indicator, that suggests bearishness to come. And indeed, we do see five days of bearishness to follow.We then see a sharp reversal to a relatively high PCR (blue circle), and we do see a bullish reversal that lasted for six days.At the yellow circle, we see a spike up in the PCR accompanied by a sharp increase in the underlying volume. However, we see a few days delay before the bullish reversal materializes in this instance. And the market was rather volatile on those days, as evidenced by the tall candles with long tails.At the green circle, we have a somewhat elevated PCR and another delayed reversal.ConclusionThe PCR is not particularly useful in sideways markets. But it can be useful at market extremes, albeit at times with some delay.Like many indicators, the PCR is far from 100% reliable unto itself. Used in conjunction with volume, volatility (VIX), support/resistance levels, trendlines, moving averages, and other technical indicators, the PCR can give us valuable clues about market sentiment and when a reversal may be in the making.Now That You Know more About the put / call ration, Read On To Learn More About Options TradingEvery day on Options Trading Signals, we do defined risk trades that protect us from black swan events 24/7. Many may think that is what stop losses are for. Well, remember the markets are only open about 1/3 of the hours in a day. Therefore, a stop loss only protects you for 1/3 of each day. Stocks can gap up or down. With options, you are always protected because we do defined risk in a spread. We cover with multiple legs, which are always on once you own.   If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service. The head Options Trading Specialist Brian Benson, who has been trading options for almost 20 years, sends out real live trade alerts on actual trades, such as TSLA and NVDA, with real money. Ready to subscribe, click here:  TheTechnicalTraders.com.Enjoy your day!
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/2/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/2/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 02.03.2022 21:33
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/2/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 698 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,377 contracts and an increase in short positions by 679 contracts. The increase in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen. The decline in total net positions occurred in the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.  Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, markets shifted into risk-off sentiment. From a currency perspective, this means that the euro, pound, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar could weaken. However, the situation is changing very quickly depending on various political statements. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators Date USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399 Feb 01, 2022 34571 29716 -23605 -79829 -11698 -60640 18264 -8239 Jan 25, 2022 36861 31560 -7763 -83273 -10773 -68273 12317 -8796 Jan 18, 2022 36434 24584 -247 -88454 -8331 -80879 7492 -10810 Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the end of this report. Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Bullish Feb 01, 2022 685431 213563 183847 29716 2479 155 1999 -1844 Weak bullish Jan 25, 2022 682952 213408 181848 31560 -8930 1507 -5469 6976 Bullish Jan 18, 2022 691882 211901 187317 24584 9589 7540 -11039 18579 Bullish         Total change 14389 9834 -43467 53301     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 59 306 contracts last week, up by 11 725 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 3,704 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 15,429 contracts. Total net positions have increased by 53,301 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to the fact that large speculators ended 43,467 short positions and addded 9,834 long positions.  This data suggests continued bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest, which fell by 5,465 contracts in the past week, shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was not supported by the volume and therefore it was a weak decline as there were fewer bearish traders in the market.  The euro weakened strongly last week under the influence of the war in Ukraine and reached strong support at 1.1120. Long-term resistance: 1.1280 – 1.1300. Next resistance is near 1.1370 – 1.1400. Support: 1.1100-1.1140   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 184007 29597 53202 -23605 1967 -7069 8773 -15842 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 182040 36666 44429 -7763 -1194 -3094 4422 -7516 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 183234 39760 40007 -247 -17259 9254 -19665 28919 Weak bearish         Total Change -12050 11743 -11614 23357     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to - 5,809 contracts, down by 8,046 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 7,902 contracts and an increase in short positions by 144 contracts. Total net positions have increased by 23,357 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exiting 11,614 short positions and adding 11,743 long positions. The decline in total net positions of large speculators into negative territory indicates bearish sentiment for the pound. Open interest, which fell by 6,859 contracts last week, indicates that the decline in the pound that occurred last week was not supported by volume and was therefore weak. The pound, just as the euro, might be negatively impacted by risk-off sentiment which could then send the pound towards support which is at 1.3300 or possibly 1.3200. Long-term resistance: 1.3620-1.3640.  Next resistance is near 1.3680 – 1.3750. The resistance is also in the zone 1.3490 – 1.3520. Support is near 1.3270 – 1.3300 and then mainly in the zone 1.3200.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish Feb 01, 2022 196913 18835 98664 -79829 6893 3714 270 3444 Weak bearish Jan 25, 2022 190020 15121 98394 -83273 8884 6070 889 5181 Weak bearish Jan 18, 2022 181136 9051 97505 -88454 -4317 -3332 -6364 3032 Weak bearish         Total Change 7126 -830 -8236 7406     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1 Total net speculator positions last week reached -84,080 contracts, up 2,614 contracts from the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 139 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 2,753 contracts. This data suggests a weakening of the bearish sentiment for the Australian dollar, which is confirmed by the downtrend. Total net positions have increased by 7,406 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exiting 8,236 short contracts while exiting 830 long contracts. However, there was an increase in open interest of 1 contract last week. This means that the upward movement that occurred last week was weak in terms of volume because new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar is very sensitive to the international geopolitical situation. In the event of geopolitical instability, it can usually be expected to weaken especially in the AUDUSD pair and also the AUDJPY. However, last week the Australian dollar surprisingly strengthened and approached the resistance band. Long-term resistance: 0.7270-0.7310                                                                                                            Long-term support: 0.7085-0.7120.  A strong support is near 0.6960 – 0.6990.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 58467 19205 30903 -11698 5151 3257 4182 -925 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 53316 15948 26721 -10773 8589 4336 6778 -2442 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 44727 11612 19943 -8331 2661 652 379 273 Weak bearish         Total Change 14570 6383 9330 -2947     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached a negative value last week - 11,551 contracts, having fallen by 2,218 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 7,580 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 7,580 contracts. This data suggests that the bearish sentiment on the NZ dollar continues. Total net positions have declined by 2,947 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators adding 9,330 short positions and adding 6,383 long positions. Last week, open interest fell significantly by 7,469 contracts. Therefore, the upward movement in NZDUSD that occurred last week is not supported by volume and therefore the move was weak. The strengthening of the NZDUSD that occurred last week is somewhat surprising given the geopolitical tensions in Ukraine. This upward movement is forming a channel pattern, which may be a correction in the current downtrend trend that we can see on the daily or weekly chart. Long-term resistance: 0.6850 – 0.6890 Long-term support: 0.6590-0.6600 and the next support is at 0.6500 – 0.6530.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Stocks Want to Go Higher Despite Ukraine News

Stocks Want to Go Higher Despite Ukraine News

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.03.2022 15:34
The S&P 500 index topped the 4,400 level yesterday despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict news. Will the uptrend continue?The broad stock market index gained 1.86% on Wednesday following its Tuesday’s decline of 1.6%, as it fluctuated following last week’s rebound from the new medium-term low of 4,114.65. It was 704 points or 14.6% below the January 4 record high of 4,818.62. So the sentiment improved recently, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict news. Yesterday the index went slightly above the 4,400 level and it was the highest since Feb. 17.For now, it looks like an upward correction. However, it may also be a more meaningful reversal following a deep 15% correction from the early January record high. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.6% higher following better-than-expected Unemployment Claims number release. However, we may see some more volatility.The nearest important resistance level remains at 4,400 and the next resistance level is at 4,450-4,500. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,300-4,350, among others. The S&P 500 index broke above the downward trend line recently, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):Futures Contract Trades Along the Local HighsLet’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. On Thursday it sold off after breaking below the 4,200 level. And since Friday it was trading along the 4,300 mark. This morning it is trading along the local highs.We are maintaining our profitable long position, as we are still expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com):ConclusionThe S&P 500 index will likely open 0.6% higher this morning. We may see more short-term fluctuations and obviously, the markets will continue to react to the Russia-Ukraine conflict news.Here’s the breakdown:The S&P 500 index bounced from the new low on Thursday after falling almost 15% from the early January record high.We are maintaining our profitable long position.We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels.Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Gold Miners – Biggest Losers? That’s What Oil Says

Gold Miners – Biggest Losers? That’s What Oil Says

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.03.2022 15:44
After the war-driven gold rally, oil is starting to outperform. History between these two has already shown that someone may suffer. Many suggest: gold miners.The precious metals corrected some of their gains yesterday, but overall, not much changed in them. However, quite a lot happened in crude oil, and in today’s analysis we’ll focus on what it implies for the precious metals market and, in particular – for mining stocks.As you may have noticed, crude oil shot up recently in a spectacular manner. This seems normal, as it’s a market with rather inflexible supply and demand, so disruptions in supply or threats thereof can impact the price in a substantial way. With Russia as one of the biggest crude oil producers, its invasion of Ukraine, and a number of sanctions imposed on the attacking country (some of them involving oil directly), it’s natural that crude oil reacts in a certain manner. The concern-based rally in gold is also understandable.However, the relationship between wars, concerns, and prices of assets is not as straightforward as “there’s a war, so gold and crude oil will go up.” In order to learn more about this relationship, let’s examine the most similar situation in recent history to the current one, when oil supplies were at stake.The war that I’m mentioning is the one between Iraq and the U.S. that started almost 20 years ago. Let’s see what happened in gold, oil, and gold stocks at that time.The most interesting thing is that when the war officially started, the above-mentioned markets were already after a decline. However, that’s not that odd, when one considers the fact that back then, the tensions were building for a long time, and it was relatively clear in advance that the U.S. attack was going to happen. This time, Russia claimed that it wouldn’t attack until the very last minute before the invasion.The point here, however, is that the markets rallied while the uncertainty and concerns were building up, and then declined when the situation was known and “stable.” I don’t mean that “war” was seen as stable, but rather that the outcome and how it affected the markets was rather obvious.The other point is the specific way in which all three markets reacted to the war and the timing thereof.Gold stocks rallied initially, but then were not that eager to follow gold higher, but that’s something that’s universal in the final stages of most rallies in the precious metals market. What’s most interesting here is that there was a time when crude oil rallied substantially, while gold was already declining.Let me emphasize that once again: gold topped first, and then it underperformed while crude oil continued to soar substantially.Fast forward to the current situation. What has happened recently?Gold moved above $1,970 (crude oil peaked at $100.54 at that time), and then it declined heavily. It’s now trying to move back to this intraday high, but it was not able to do so. At the moment of writing these words, gold is trading at about $1,930, while crude oil is trading at about $114.In other words, while gold declined by $30, crude oil rallied by about $14. That’s a repeat of what we saw in 2003!What happened next in 2003? Gold declined, and the moment when crude oil started to visibly outperform gold was also the beginning of a big decline in gold stocks.That makes perfect sense on the fundamental level too. Gold miners’ share prices depend on their profits (just like it’s the case with any other company). Crude oil at higher levels means higher costs for the miners (the machinery has to be fueled, the equipment has to be transported, etc.). When costs (crude oil could be viewed as a proxy for them) are rising faster than revenues (gold could be viewed as a proxy for them), miners’ profits appear to be in danger; and investors don’t like this kind of danger, so they sell shares. Of course, there are many more factors that need to be taken into account, but I just wanted to emphasize one way in which the above-mentioned technical phenomenon is justified. The above doesn’t apply to silver as it’s a commodity, but it does apply to silver stocks.Back in 2004, gold stocks wiped out their entire war-concern-based rally, and the biggest part of the decline took just a bit more than a month. Let’s remember that back then, gold stocks were in a very strong medium- and long-term uptrend. Right now, mining stocks remain in a medium-term downtrend, so their decline could be bigger – they could give away their war-concern-based gains and then decline much more.Mining stocks are not declining profoundly yet, but let’s keep in mind that history rhymes – it doesn’t repeat to the letter. As I emphasized previously today, back in 2003 and 2002, the tensions were building for a longer time and it was relatively clear in advance that the U.S. attack was going to happen. This time, Russia claimed that it wouldn’t attack until the very last minute before the invasion. Consequently, the “we have to act now” is still likely to be present, and the dust hasn’t settled yet – everything appears to be unclear, and thus the markets are not returning to their previous trends. Yet.However, as history shows, that is likely to happen. Either immediately, or shortly, as crude oil is already outperforming gold.Investing and trading are difficult. If it was easy, most people would be making money – and they’re not. Right now, it’s most difficult to ignore the urge to “run for cover” if you physically don’t have to. The markets move on “buy the rumor and sell the fact.” This repeats over and over again in many (all?) markets, and we have direct analogies to similar situations in gold itself. Junior miners are likely to decline the most, also based on the massive declines that are likely to take place (in fact, they have already started) in the stock markets.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Surging Commodities

Surging Commodities

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 03.03.2022 15:55
S&P 500 returned above 4,350s as credit markets indeed weren‘t leading to the downside. Consolidation now followed by more upside, that‘s the most likely scenario next. Yesterday‘s risk-on turn was reflected also in value rising more than tech. Anyway, the Nasdaq upswing is a good omen for the bulls in light of the TLT downswing – Treasuries are bucking the Powell newfound rate raising hesitation – inflation ambiguity is back. The yield curve is still compressing, and the pressure on the Fed to act, goes on – looking at where real asset prices are now, it had been indeed unreasonable to expect inflation to slow down meaningfully. Told you so – as I have written yesterday:(…) What‘s most interesting about bonds now, is the relenting pressure on the Fed to raise rates – the 2-year yield is moving down noticeably, and that means much practical progress on fighting inflation can‘t be expected. Not that there was much to start with, but the expectations of the hawkish Fed talk turning into action, are being dialed back. The current geopolitical events provide a scene to which attention is fixated while inflation fires keep raging on with renewed vigor (beyond energies) – just as I was calling for a little deceleration in CPI towards the year end bringing it to probably 5-6%, this figure is starting to look too optimistic on the price stability front.Predictable consequence are strong appreciation days across the board in commodities and precious metals. – let‘s enjoy the sizable open profits especially in oil and copper. I told you weeks ago that real assets are where to look for in portfolio gains – and even the modest S&P 500 long profits taken off the table yesterday, are taking my portfolio performance chart to fresh highs. Crude oil keeps rising as if there‘s no tomorrow, copper is joining in, agrifoods are on fire – and precious metals continue being very well bid. Cryptos aren‘t selling off either. Anyway, this is the time of real assets...Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls are back, and I‘m looking for consolidation around these levels. The very short-term direction isn‘t totally clear, but appears favoring the bulls unless corporate junk bonds crater. Not too likely.Credit MarketsHYG performance shows rising risk appetite, but the waning volume is a sign of caution for today. Unless LQD and TLT rise as well, HYG looks short-term stretched, therefore I‘m looking for consolidation today.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are doing great, and they merely corrected yesterday – both gold and silver can be counted on to extend gains if you look at the miners‘ message. As the prospects of vigorous Fed action gets dialed back, they stand to benefit even more.Crude OilCrude oil surge is both justified and unprecedented – and oil stocks aren‘t weakening. It looks like we would consolidate in the volatile range around $110 next.CopperCopper is joining in the upswing increasingly more, and the buyer‘s return before the close looks sufficient to maintain upside momentum that had been questioned earlier in the day. The break higher out of the long consolidation, is approaching.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto buyers are consolidating well deserved gains, and the bullish flag is being formed. The sellers are nowhere to be seen at the moment – I‘m still looking for the current tight range to be resolved to the upside next.SummaryS&P 500 has reached a short-term resistance, which would be overcome only should bonds give their blessing. It‘s likely these would confirm the risk-on turn, but HYG looks a bit too extended – its consolidation of high ground gained, could slow the stock bulls somewhat. The risk appetite and „rush to safety“ in commodities and precious metals goes on, more or less squeezing select assets such as crude oil. The CRB Index upswing is though of the orderly and broad advance flavor, and does reflect the prospects of inflation remaining elevated for longer than foreseen by the mainstream.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
S&P 500 At Tipping Point To Start  A Bear Market And What You Need To See

S&P 500 At Tipping Point To Start A Bear Market And What You Need To See

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 03.03.2022 21:38
Is a bear market on the way? My research suggests the downward sloping trend line (LIGHT ORANGE in the Daily/Weekly SPY chart below) may continue to act as solid resistance – possibly prompting a further breakdown in the markets for US major indexes.As we've seen recently, news and other unexpected events prompt very large price volatility events in the US major indexes. For example, the VIX recently rose above 30 again, which shows volatility levels are currently 3x higher than normal levels.Increased Volatility & The Start Of An Excess Phase Peak Should Be A Clear WarningThis increased volatility in the markets, coupled with the increased fear of the US Fed and the global unknowns (Ukraine, China, Debt Levels, and others), may be just enough pressure to crush any upside price trends over the next few months. Technically, my research suggests the $445 to $450 level is critical resistance. The SPY must climb above these levels to have any chance of moving higher.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Unless the US markets find some new support and attempt to rally back towards recent highs, an “Excess Phase Peak” pattern will likely continue to unfold throughout 2022. This unique price pattern appears to have already reached a Phase 2 or Phase 3 setup. Please take a look at this Weekly GE example of an Excess Phase Peak pattern and how it transitions through Phase 1 through Phase 4 before entering an extended Bearish price trend.Read this research article about Excess Phase Peaks: HOW TO SPOT THEN END OF AN EXCESS PHASE - PART 2SPY May Already Be In A Phase 4 Excess Peak PhaseThis Daily SPY chart highlights my analysis, showing the major downward sloping trend line, the Middle Resistance Zone, and the lower Support Zone. Combined, these are acting as a “Wedge” for price over the past few weeks – tightening into an Apex near $435~440.If the US major indexes attempt to break this downward price trend, then the price must attempt to move solidly above this downward sloping price channel and try to rally back into the Resistance Zone (near $445~$450). Unless that happens, the price will likely transition into a deeper downward price move, attempting to break below recent lows, near $410, and possibly quickly moving down to the $360 level.SPY Weekly Chart Shows Consolidation Near $435 – Possibly Starting A Phase 4 Excess PeakTraders should stay keenly aware of the risks associated with the broad US and global market decline as the Ukraine war, and other unknowns continue to elevate fear and concerns related to the global economy. In my opinion, with the current excess global debt levels, extended speculative market bubbles, and the continued commodity price rally, we may be starting to transition away from an extended growth phase and into a deeper depreciation cycle phase.My research suggests we entered a new Depreciation cycle phase in late 2019 and are already more than 25 months into a potential 9.5-year global Depreciation cycle. What comes next should not surprise anyone.Read this article about Depreciation Cycle Phases: HOW TO INTERPRET & PROFIT FROM THE RISKS OF A DEPRECIATION CYCLE Traders should stay keenly focused on market risks and weaknesses. I expected the conflict in Ukraine to have been priced into the US markets over the past 7+ days. However, I believe the markets were unprepared for this scale or invasion and will attempt to settle fair stock price valuation levels as the conflict continues. This is not the same US/Global market Bullish trend we've become used to trading over the past 5+ years. Looking Forward - preparing for a possible Bear marketMarket dynamics and trends are changing from what we have experienced over the past 40 years for stocks and bonds. The 60/40 portfolio is costing you money now. Traders need an edge to stay ahead of these markets trends and to protect and profit from big trends.The only way to navigate the financial markets safely, no matter the direction, is through technical analysis. By following assets and money flows, we identify trend changes and move our capital into whatever index, sector, industry, bond, commodity, country, and even currency ETF. By following the money, you become part of new emerging trends and can profit during weak stock or bond conditions.Want Trading Strategies that Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 
Is $50k A Possible Level For Bitcoin Price (BTCUSD)? ETH Decreases By 6.2%

Is $50k A Possible Level For Bitcoin Price (BTCUSD)? ETH Decreases By 6.2%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 04.03.2022 08:28
The momentum of pressure on the crypto market was due to the decline in stock indices, as the Fed gave signals of tightening policy. Technical factors also contributed to the negative dynamics - the inability to overcome the strong resistance of the 100-day moving average and mid-February highs around $45,000. Real Vision CEO Raul Pal believes that the dynamics of bitcoin against the backdrop of foreign political tensions in the world signals the onset of a bullish trend. According to Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, one of the world's leading independent financial institutions, BTC could reach $50,000 by the end of March. Billionaire investor Bill Miller said that the Russian authorities can use BTC as a reserve currency. Earlier, the US authorities called on crypto exchanges to prevent Russia from circumventing sanctions. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia did not begin to soften its attitude towards bitcoin against the backdrop of sanctions and still advocates a complete ban on the circulation and mining of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is developing a correction, losing 4.5% over the past day to $41.4K. Methodical pressure on the first cryptocurrency was formed on Wednesday evening after a short break above $45K. Ethereum fell by 6.2%, other leading altcoins from the top ten sank from 2.8% (BNB) to 7.8% (Solana). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, decreased by 3.7% over the day, to $1.83 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index sank 0.2 points to 42.9%. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index dropped another 6 points to 33 - fear.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains - 04.03.2022

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains - 04.03.2022

John Benjamin John Benjamin 04.03.2022 09:19
USDJPY tests supply areaThe Japanese yen stalled after an increase in January’s unemployment rate.The pair’s rally above the supply zone around 115.80 has put the US dollar back on track. The general direction remains up despite its choppiness. 114.40 has proved to be solid support and kept the bulls in the game.A close above 115.80 would extend the rally to the double top (116.30), a major resistance on the daily chart. Meanwhile, an overbought RSI caused a limited pullback, with 115.10 as fresh support.NZDUSD breaks resistanceThe New Zealand dollar recovers amid commodity price rallies.After the pair found support near last September’s lows (0.6530), a bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests that sentiment could be turning around. A bullish breakout above the recent high (0.6810) would further boost buyers’ confidence and lift offers to January’s high at 0.6890.On the downside, 0.6730 is the first support if buyers struggle to gather more interest. 0.6675 would be a second layer to keep the current rebound intact.UK 100 lacks supportThe FTSE 100 slipped after the second round of talks between Russia and Ukraine ended without much result.The index met stiff selling pressure at 7560 then fell below the critical floor at 7170. Increasingly bearish sentiment triggered a new round of sell-off to the psychological level of 7000 from last November.A deeper correction would lead to a retest of 6850, dampening the market mood in the medium-term. On the upside, the bulls must clear 7300 and 7450 to reclaim control of the direction.
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) And Ripple (XRP) - A Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) And Ripple (XRP) - A Technical Analysis

Jason Sen Jason Sen 04.03.2022 10:01
Bitcoin could not beat the 100 day moving average at 45000 to keep the bears in control for now with shorts at strong resistance at 44100/400 working perfectly on the slide as far as as far as support at 40800/400. Ripple shorts at strong resistance at 8000/8100 certainly worked perfectly this week, with a high for the week here & a slide to support at 7300/7280 for profit taking today. Ethereum we wrote: Shorts at at 3025/55 target minor support at 2870/40 & perhaps as far as 2750/2700 before the weekend. Targets all hit on the upside & downside so far this week. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis Bitcoin shorts at strong resistance at 44100/400 target 42000/41800 (hit) & now support at 40800/400 for profit taking. Longs could be risky in the bear trend, but if you try, stop below 40000 (& look for a target of 42800). However if we continue lower look for 39300/200 & 38000/37700. Minor resistance at 42700/900 then strong resistance at 44100/400. Shorts need stops above 45000 & a break above the February high at 45800 would therefore be a strong buy signal with another 1000 pips gain easily possible. Ripple shorts at strong resistance at 8000/8100 work perfectly on the slide as far as support at 7300/7280 for some profit taking. Below here can target 7090/70, perhaps as far as support at 6890/6870. Gains are likely to be limited in the bear trend with resistance at 7600/7700 & again at 8000/8100. Shorts need stops above 8200 for a buy signal initially targeting 8400, 8500 & perhaps as far as the 2 week high at 8600. Ethereum shorts at at 3025/55 worked perfectly targeting minor support at 2870/40 & as far as 2750/2700 before the weekend for some profit taking. However further losses look likely eventually to strong support from 2660 down to 2560 which should now hold the downside again. Gains are likely to be limited in the bear trend with resistance at 2790/2810 & again at resistance at 3025/55 with a high for the day exactly here. A break above 3100 retests the February high at 3200/3280. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Sentiment turns as the U.S. looks to regulate cryptos

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Sentiment turns as the U.S. looks to regulate cryptos

FXStreet News FXStreet News 03.03.2022 16:07
Bitcoin price sees its gains being pared back a bit after more talks on regulatory crackdown out of U.S. on cryptocurrencies. Ethereum price slips further away from $3,018 after Powell's speech before Congress talked about regulating cryptocurrencies. XRP price sideways, awaiting a catalyst to go either way. Cryptocurrencies are facing some headwinds – whilst they have enjoyed more inflows of late as both Ukrainian and Russian inhabitants reverted to cryptocurrencies as an alternative means of payment to avoid sanctions – there are signs this loophole will soon be closed. During Biden's State of the Union speech the president asked for a crackdown on cryptocurrencies to close the escape route for wealthy Russians. FED chair Powell added fuel to the fire by saying that he would welcome further regulation to monitor and control cryptocurrencies better. The result is that these comments have triggered some nervousness in all significant cryptocurrency pairs. Bitcoin bulls are rejected at $44,088 with the risk of sliding back to $42,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price saw a full paring back of the losses accumulated during the Russian invasion as cryptocurrencies saw renewed cash inflow from both Russians and Ukrainians looking for alternative means of payment after both central banks had put in cash withdrawal restrictions. As Bitcoin looked to be poised for another leg higher, both Biden and Powell created some headwinds by urging for more regulatory crackdown, as it is emerging that cryptocurrencies are undermining sanctions on Russia. With this renewed negative attention towards cryptocurrencies, investors are being quick to book profits and, in the process, are pushing BTC price action to the downside. BTC price saw an initial rejection at $45,261, a level which coincides with the low of December 17, and as such triggered some profit-taking. As profit-taking continues bulls are faced with another rejection at $44,088, a level that goes back to August 06. Below that, the search for support finds nothing until $41,756 or the psychological $42,000 level near the baseline of a bearish triangle we had marked up earlier. BTC/USD daily chart As more talks are underway, a breakthrough could still happen at any moment. If that happened, it would mean that bears would fail in their attempt to squeeze out bulls and get stopped out themselves once the price pierced through $44,088 to the upside. That move would even accelerate after shooting through $45,261, with a quick rally to $48,760 and, from there, positioning Bitcoin to pop back above $50,000 next week. Ethereum bulls are defending the 55-day SMA, but support is wearing thin Ethereum (ETH) price takes another step back today after more negative connotations from FED Chair Powell in the house hearing before Congress. Next to committing to more rate hikes, Powell also drilled down on cryptocurrencies and called them a risk that needs to be prioritised with regulations. That puts greater regulation for cryptocurrencies at the top of the congressional agenda – after Ukraine, and inland inflation had pushed that bullet point further down the list. For the moment, ETH sees bulls defending the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,880. Although it looks good to hold for now, in the past, the 55-day SMA has not built a solid reputation of being well respected. So expect a possible breach once the US session kicks in and Powell makes more negative comments on cryptocurrencies in his second day of congressional hearings, which will likely push ETH price below the 55-day SMA at $2,880, through the monthly pivot at $2,835, and down to a possible endpoint at around $2,695. ETH/USD daily chart As the situation in Russia further deteriorates with more sanctions on the shelf, residents will be forced even more to flee into cryptocurrencies to avoid any repercussions from the financial sanctions imposed. That would mean broad flux inflow throughout the coming days, with ETH price action popping above $3,018, and in the process breaking the double top of rejection from Tuesday and Wednesday. To the upside, that could see $3,391 for a test as the inflow will outweigh any bearish attempts from short sellers. XRP price testing monthly pivot to the downside as dollar strength weighs Ripple's (XRP) price is under pressure to the downside as bears are putting in their effort to break the new monthly pivot at $0.76. Bears are getting help from the other side of the asset pair by the dollar’s strength weighing on price action for a second consecutive day. With Ukraine's current tension and possible retaliation from Russia against the West, safe havens are broadly bid with the Greenback on the front foot and thus outpacing XRP’s valuation, resulting in a move lower. Expect XRP price to see an accelerated move once the monthly pivot at $0.76 gives way. With not much in the way, the road is open to drop to $0.62, with $0.70 and $0.68 as possible breaking off points where bears could see some profit-taking and attempts by bulls to halt the downturn. But the trifecta of the negative comments from both Biden and Powell joined with the safe-haven bid is too big of a force to withstand, making $0.62 almost inevitable in the coming hours or trading days. XRP/USD daily chart The only event that could turn this around is if a catalyst were to remove the safe-haven bid. That could come with a resolution of the current tension in Ukraine or surrender of the Russian army of some sort. In such an outcome, the safe-haven bid would evaporate, followed by a massive risk-on flow which would see XRP pop above $0.78 and rally to $0.88, taking out $0.84 along the way to the upside.
Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD consolidates just below $25.50 eyeing breakout to fresh multi-month highs

Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD consolidates just below $25.50 eyeing breakout to fresh multi-month highs

FXStreet News FXStreet News 03.03.2022 16:07
Silver is consolidating close to multi-month highs not far below $25.50 as markets remain intensely focused on the Ukraine conflict. Technicians have noted that spot silver prices have over the last few days formed an ascending triangle. Upcoming tier one US data releases (ISM Services on Thursday, NFP on Friday) will play second fiddle for geopolitics. Spot silver (XAG/USD) prices are consolidating close to multi-month highs with the $25.50 per troy ounce mark for now acting as resistance, but ongoing nervousness about the ongoing Ukraine conflict and its economic impact underpinning the safe-haven metal for now. At current levels in the $25.30s, spot silver trades broadly flat on the day, with focus for now on talks between Ukrainian and Russian delegations in the hopes that some sort of ceasefire might be in the offing. Given maximalist demands still being made by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, demands which the Ukrainian government is very unlikely to accept, hopes that a broad ceasefire agreement can be reached are slim. That suggests no end in sight for the rally in the prices of commodities exported by Russia (oil, gas, various agricultural products and base metals), which will likely keep assets deemed as offering inflation protection in demand (like silver). Technicians have noted that spot silver prices have over the last few days formed an ascending triangle, a pattern that is more often than not indicative of a bullish breakout. Technical buying on a break above the $25.50 could dovetail nicely with the fundamentals if the Ukraine conflict continues to intensify and Western nations are expected to continue tightening the sanctions noose around Russia’s neck. Silver can move aggressively and some bulls likely have their sights set on mid-2021 highs in the $28.00 area. With focus so heavily on geopolitics, upcoming tier one US data releases (ISM Services PMI on Thursday and the official jobs report on Friday) and the second day of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before the US Congress will take something of a back seat. Powell explained on Wednesday that current uncertainties regarding the impact of the Ukraine war would not deter the Fed from getting moving regarding removing policy stimulus. An expected strong jobs report on Friday should support this stance and probably won’t dent silver’s near-term appeal much.
Fighting Continues: Good for Ukraine... And Gold

Fighting Continues: Good for Ukraine... And Gold

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 03.03.2022 16:10
  Kherson fell, but Ukrainians are still fighting fiercely. In the face of war, gold also shows courage – to move steadily up. The battle of Ukraine is still going on. Russian troops took control of Kherson, a city of about 300,000 in the south of Ukraine, but other main cities haven’t been captured yet. Ukrainian soldiers even managed to conduct some counter-offensive actions near the country’s capital. There is a large Russian column advancing on Kyiv, but its progress has been very slow over the last few days due to the staunch Ukrainian resistance and Russian forces’ problems with equipment, tactics, and supplies, including fuel and food. David is still bravely fighting Goliath! Of course, Russian forces still have an advantage and are progressing. However, the pace of the invasion is much slower than Vladimir Putin and his generals expected. The Ukrainians’ defense is much fiercer, while Russia’s losses are more severe. The Russian defense ministry admitted that 498 Russian soldiers have already been killed and 1,597 wounded, but the real number is probably much higher. Even if Russia takes control of other cities, it’s unclear whether it will be able to hold them. What’s more, although the West didn’t engage directly in the war, the response of the West was much stronger than Putin could probably have expected. The US and its allies supplied Ukraine with weapons and imposed severe sanctions against Putin and the Russian governing elite, as well as on Russia’s economy and financial system. For instance, the West decided to exclude several Russian banks from SWIFT and also to freeze most of Russian central bank’s foreign currency reserve assets. Additionally, many international companies are moving out of Russia or exporting their products to this country, adding to the economic pressure. The ruble plummeted, as the chart below shows.   Implications for Gold What does the ongoing war in Ukraine mean for the precious metals market? Well, the continuous heroic stance of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ukrainian defenders is not only heating up the hearts of all freedom-lovers, but also gold prices. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal has soared to about $1,930, the highest level since January 2021. As a reminder, until recently, gold was unable to surpass $1,800. Thus, the recent rally is noteworthy. The war is clearly boosting the safe-haven demand for gold. Another bullish driver is rising inflation. According to early estimates, euro area annual inflation soared from 5.1% in January to 5.8%, and the war is likely to add to the inflationary pressure due to rising energy prices. Both Brent and WTI oil prices have surged above $110 per barrel. Last but not least, I have to mention Powell’s appearance before Congress. In the prepared testimony, he said that the Fed would hike the federal funds rate this month, despite the war in Ukraine: Our monetary policy has been adapting to the evolving economic environment, and it will continue to do so. We have phased out our net asset purchases. With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, we expect it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate at our meeting later this month. This sounds rather hawkish and, thus, bearish for gold. However, Powell acknowledged that the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain. The near-term effects on the U.S. economy of the invasion of Ukraine, the ongoing war, the sanctions, and of events to come, remain highly uncertain. Making appropriate monetary policy in this environment requires a recognition that the economy evolves in unexpected ways. We will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook. Hence, the war in Eastern Europe could make the Fed more dovish than expected at a time when inflation could be higher than forecasted before the war outbreak. Such an environment should be bullish for the gold market. However, there is one important caveat. The detailed analysis of gold prices shows that they declined around the first and second rounds of negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian diplomats in anticipation of the end of the conflict. However, when it became apparent that the talks ended in a stalemate, gold resumed its upward move. The implication should be clear: as long as the war continues, the yellow metal may shine, but when the ceasefire or truce is agreed, we could see a correction in the gold market. It doesn’t have to be a great plunge, but a large part of the geopolitical premium will disappear. Having said that, the war may take a while. I pray that I’m wrong, but the slow progress of the Russian invasion could prompt Vladimir Putin to adopt a “whatever it takes” stance. According to some experts, he is already more emotional than usual, and when faced with the prospects of failure, he could become even more brutal or irrational. We already see that Russian troops, unable to break the Ukrainian defense in open combat, siege the cities and bomb civilians. Hence, the continuation or escalation of Russia’s military actions could provide support for gold prices. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Back to Risk-Off

Back to Risk-Off

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 04.03.2022 15:50
S&P 500 consolidation isn‘t turning out well for the bulls as 4,300 can be easily broken again if I look at credit markets‘ posture. Treasuries just aren‘t sliding no matter the Fed‘s ambiguity on inflation, let alone markets sniffing out rate hike ideas getting revisited. Still, tech gave up opening gains, and closed on a weak note while commodities and precious metals maintained high ground, and the dollar continued rising.The odds are stacked against paper market bulls, and as I had been telling you weeks ago already, this is the time of real assets outperformance. In this sense, miners‘ leadership is a great confirmation of more strength to come, of inflation to continue… Everyone‘s free to make their own opinion after the State of the Union address.On the bright side, the flood of recently closed series of trades spanning stocks, precious metals, oil and copper, has resulted in sharp equity curve gains – and more good calls are in the making, naturally:Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is facing a setback, which could turn a lot worse if the sentiment turn continues. Odds are it would, and we would see some selling going into the weekend.Credit MarketsHYG refused to extend opening gains, and the message is clear, and also a reaction to the Fed‘s pronouncements. Treasuries though are more careful in the tightening prospects assessment – risk-off in bonds and the dollar continues.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are doing great, and are likely to continue rising no matter what the dollar does. There is no good reason for a selloff if you look around objectively. Miners are confirming, the upleg is underway.Crude OilCrude oil upswing isn‘t yet done, it would be premature to say so. It seems though that the time of volatile chop and new base building can continue – oil stocks are the barometer.CopperCopper outperformance leaves me a bit cautious – the advance is likely to slow down and get challenged next. It was a good run, and the red metal isn‘t at all done in the medium-term.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto downswing is reaching a bit farther than I would have been comfortable with. The buyers are welcome to step in on good volume, but I‘m not expecting miracles today or through the weekend.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are losing the initiative, and neither credit markets nor the dollar favor a turnaround today. Treasuries rising in spite of the Fed‘s messaging are also casting a clear verdict, and the yield curve compression continues. The risk-off sentiment that is getting an intermezzo here and there, is likely to rule unless the Fed makes a profound turn before the Mar FOMC. And given the inflation dynamics with all the consequences beyond economics, that‘s unlikely to happen. Markets are thus likely to continue fearing the confluence of events till...Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Your Crypto Focus: 5th-11th March

Your Crypto Focus: 5th-11th March

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 04.03.2022 14:13
It was another week of trade that, in many ways, continues to be governed by the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The week started with a sharp decline but buyers soon came back to life after new lows were hit since the Russian invasion began. Monday and Tuesday saw a follow-up to the buyback with solid gains that have not been seen for a while, hitting a lot of the top ten. For instance, Bitcoin added over 17% in two sessions. This type of buyer momentum got people excited and started to remind us of years just gone by. Sadly, the momentum didn’t last, and we have seen three to two days of declines leading into the weekend session. But the declines have not been market-wide, and we have seen exceptions on the boards, with several coins continuing to fly higher. LUNA, ROOK, ATOM and RUNE have been standouts, but Waves has stolen the show, hitting +67% with a weekly high of $20.87. The top ten and most of the top 25 followed tensions in Europe. As the fighting intensified, markets declined. Today, selling continued to pick up as fighting turned critical as news hit of a major nuclear power station being shelled. As of Friday, many of the top ten and 25 remained in the blue but well off earlier highs. Traders will continue to monitor the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, looking for signs of anything escalating and forcing risk markets lower. US authorities also said they would target Russian funds moving into Crypto. However, proving and stopping it may not impact the currencies. This week we want to look at Bitcoin in more detail. $44,600 has been reconfirmed as resistance and, for now, has stopped the rally. This level is our roof, and a move through would suggest that buyers are still in control. On the downside, we received 36,800 support. If the price returns to this level and breaks through it, we will be looking for sellers to try and resume the downtrend. Otherwise, a hold in-between these two levels suggests we have a consolidation range on our hands. The post Your Crypto Focus: 5th-11th March appeared first on Eightcap.
NFP Quick Analysis: Jobs jump again, adding fuel to the war-related dollar fire

NFP Quick Analysis: Jobs jump again, adding fuel to the war-related dollar fire

FXStreet News FXStreet News 04.03.2022 16:07
The US has gained a whopping 678,000 jobs in February. Slower wage growth is due to the return of lower-paying jobs, and markets are set to ignore it.Russia's invasion of Ukraine is already boosting the dollar and it now gets another push.As if the dollar needs another boost – February's Nonfarm Payrolls have confirmed that the US labor market is on fire. The economy is benefiting from the retreat of the Omicron COVID-19 variant, which further cements the first pandemic-era rate hike from the Federal Reserve. The war will not stop the central bank.The US gained no fewer than 678,000 jobs in February, on top of an upward-revised and strong 481,000 increase in January. Moreover, the unemployment rate slipped to 3.8% – an excellent number in absolute terms, and even better when coming amid an increase in the participation rate to 62.3%. All these figures beat estimates. The disappointing data comes from wages, which remained flat in February and only 5.1% up YoY compared with 5.7% recorded in January. However, that is due to the much-needed return of leisure and hospitality workers who are paid lower wages. Broader employment outweighs a drop in wages. The greenback has been benefiting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which is now on its ninth day. The latest scare comes from Europe's largest nuclear power station, which was hit by Russian fire and later taken over by invading soldiers. With every day that passes without a resolution, the global economic damage intensifies. For the Fed, a 5.1% increase in wages as seen in Average Hourly Earnings continues supportingthe need to raise rates. Substantial job gains go hand in hand with employers competing for employees, pushing their salaries higher – and in turn adding to price pressures. Higher energy prices had already shown that such shocks tend to propagate into the broader economy, lifting core prices and salaries. The war has sent oil and gas surging, threatening to further boost inflation. While this NFP report is unlikely to push the Fed to a double-dose rate hike, it could convince officials to forecast a steeper path of increases to borrowing costs. That would further underpin the greenback. In the shorter term, the mix of a strong jobs report, the ongoing war and the closing of trading for the weekend could encourage investors to take further risks off the table – and send them to the safety of the US dollar.
Shiba Inu price is back in a downtrend holding a potential 17% correction

Shiba Inu price is back in a downtrend holding a potential 17% correction

FXStreet News FXStreet News 04.03.2022 16:07
Red flags for Shiba Inu as three bearish strikes are putting SHIB on track for a 17% loss. Markets, in general, are moving into hibernation mode to overcome the rising tensions in Ukraine.Expect the downtrend to continue until the floor is reached at around $0.00002100.Shiba Inu (SHIB) price action is under the scrutiny of bears as bulls have given away their upper hand and are falling over each other to get out of SHIB price action as it tanks for a third consecutive day. With three bearish signals on the technical front and failed peace talks again between Russia and Ukraine, the background looks set for more downturns to come. From the opening price today, SHIB price action is set to correct another 17% before the current intermediary floor is reached for a test of $0.00002100.SHIB price action is going along with global markets and sees safe-haven bids outweigh the upside potentialShiba Inu price action is under siege by bears after a series of bearish coups overtook price action. On Wednesday, the first negative signal came from a false break and bull trap, at $0.00002707 and the monthly pivot. Bulls broke above but got washed out of their positions by bears, pushing price action below the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $0.00002600. The SMA in its turn again triggered a rejection at the top side on Thursday with bulls being squeezed out of their positions.The pain for SHIB bulls looks far from over as in early morning trading during the ASIA PAC session, strike three was delivered with a break below the low of yesterday, leading to price action dangling above an abyss of around 17%. The first and only real solid support to the downside is at around $0.00002100, with the green ascending trendline holding five solid tests proving that it is a line in the sand where bulls will engage in full force to uphold price action from falling further. The psychological $0.00002000 should add to the strength of the level, but an eventful weekend could see a further crackdown towards $0.00001883 at the monthly S1 support level.SHIB/USD daily chartAs said in the introductory statement, all this results from the Ukraine situation and global markets further going into safe-haven mode. All it would take are just some flairs of positive news alluding to a solution in Ukraine that would trigger a quick and smooth turnaround back towards $0.00002800. With that move, not only would the red descending trend line at the top side be broken, but as well the 78.6% Fibonacci level would come into play, opening the door for more upside to come.
Fed’s Tightening Cycle: Bullish or Bearish for Gold?

Fed’s Tightening Cycle: Bullish or Bearish for Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 04.03.2022 16:14
This month, the Fed is expected to hike interest rates. Contrary to popular belief, the tightening doesn't have to be adverse for gold. What does history show?March 2022 – the Fed is supposed to end its quantitative easing and hike the federal funds rate for the first time during recovery from a pandemic crisis . After the liftoff, the Fed will probably also start reducing the size of its mammoth balance sheet and raise interest rates a few more times. Thus, the tightening of monetary policy is slowly becoming a reality. The golden question is: how will the yellow metal behave under these conditions?Let’s look into the past. The last tightening cycle of 2015-2019 was rather positive for gold prices. The yellow metal rallied in this period from $1,068 to $1,320 (I refer here to monthly averages), gaining about 24%, as the chart below shows.What’s really important is that gold bottomed out in December 2015, the month of the liftoff. Hence, if we see a replay of this episode, gold should detach from $1,800 and go north, into the heavenly land of bulls. However, in December 2015, real interest rates peaked, while in January 2016, the US dollar found its local top. These factors helped to catapult gold prices a few years ago, but they don’t have to reappear this time.Let’s dig a bit deeper. The earlier tightening cycle occurred between 2004 and 2006, and it was also a great time for gold, despite the fact that the Fed raised interest rates by more than 400 basis points, something unthinkable today. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal (monthly average) soared from $392 to $634, or more than 60%. Just as today, inflation was rising back then, but it was also a time of great weakness in the greenback, a factor that is currently absent.Let’s move even further back into the past. The Fed also raised the federal funds rate in the 1994-1995 and 1999-2000 periods. The chart below shows that these cases were rather neutral for gold prices. In the former, gold was traded sideways, while in the latter, it plunged, rallied, and returned to a decline. Importantly, just as in 2015, the yellow metal bottomed out soon after the liftoff in early 1999.In the 1980s, there were two major tightening cycles – both clearly negative for the yellow metal. In 1983-1984, the price of gold plunged 29% from $491 to $348, despite rising inflation, while in 1988-1989, it dropped another 12%, as you can see in the chart below.Finally, we have traveled back in time to the Great Stagflation period! In the 1970s, the Fed’s tightening cycles were generally positive for gold, as the chart below shows. In the period from 1972 to 1974, the average monthly price of the yellow metal soared from $48 to $172, or 257%. The tightening of 1977-1980 was an even better episode for gold. Its price skyrocketed from $132 to $675, or 411%. However, monetary tightening in 1980-1981 proved not very favorable , with the yellow metal plunging then to $409.What are the implications of our historical analysis for the gold market in 2022? First, the Fed’s tightening cycle doesn’t have to be bad for gold. In this report, I’ve examined nine tightening cycles – of which four were bullish, two were neutral, and three were bearish for the gold market. Second, all the negative cases occurred in the 1980s, while the two most recent cycles from the 21st century were positive for gold prices. It bodes well for the 2022 tightening cycle.Third, the key is, as always, the broader macroeconomic context – namely, what is happening with the US dollar, inflation, and real interest rates. For example, in the 1970s, the Fed was hiking rates amid soaring inflation. However, in March 1980, the CPI annul rate peaked, and a long era of disinflation started. This is why tightening cycles were generally positive in the 1970s, and negative in the 1980s.Hence, it seems on the surface that the current tightening should be bullish for gold, as it is accompanied by high inflation. However, inflation is expected to peak this year. If this happens, real interest rates could increase even further, creating downward pressure on gold prices. Please remember that the real federal funds rate is at a record low level. If inflation peaks, gold bulls’ only hope will be either a bearish trend in the US dollar (amid global recovery and ECB’s monetary policy tightening) or a dovish shift in market expectations about the path of the interest rates, given that the Fed’s tightening cycle has historically been followed by an economic slowdown or recession.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Markets Situation In Times Of Russia Vs Ukraine, ECB Interest Rate Decision, EU Leaders Summits And US Core CPI Are Events To Watch Next Week

Markets Situation In Times Of Russia Vs Ukraine, ECB Interest Rate Decision, EU Leaders Summits And US Core CPI Are Events To Watch Next Week

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 04.03.2022 16:27
Monday seems to be a calm beginning of the week (despite the Russia-Ukraine conflict) as there’s no any major event planned. The rest of the week 7/03-11/03 will surely arouse more interest. What to follow? Have a look at Economic Calendar by FXMAG.COM Tuesday – Japan and Poland The first important indicator of the week is the Japanese GDP (QoQ) (Q4) which is released very lately on Tuesday at 11:40 p.m. The previous value – 1.3% As tensions rise, the country which lies closely to Ukraine has its currency (PLN) weakened, so the Interest Rate Decision of National Bank released on Tuesday as well is worth a look as well. Wednesday - USA On Wednesday we focus on USA, where JOLTs Job Openings (3 p.m.) and US Crude Oil Inventories (3:30 p.m.) are released. Thursday – European Union and USA Thursday is full of Europe-targeted events. According to Investing.com, at 10 a.m., EU Leaders meet at the Summit and shortly after midday ECB releases its Marginal Lending Facility its Interest Rate Decision. At 1.30 p.m. there is a Press Conference planned. The same time ECB speaks to media, US Bureau Of Labor Statistics releases Core CPI (MoM) of February which previously hit 0.6% Friday – UK, EU And Canada Who’s going to wake up early on Friday? The answer is UK Office of National Statistics which releases GDP (MoM) and Manufacturing Production (MoM) at 7 a.m. EU Leaders will rest a little longer as they meet at the another Summit at 10 a.m. According to Investing.com the latest “triple-star” event of 11/03 is the release of Employment Change indicator in Canada, which hit -200.1K in the month before. Data: Investing.com Time: GMT
Bitcoin (BTC) To Hit $100k In A Few Years' Time?

Bitcoin (BTC) To Hit $100k In A Few Years' Time?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 07.03.2022 09:05
With a sharp decline over the weekend, Bitcoin wiped out the initial gains, gave away the positions to bears after the third straight week of gains. On Saturday and Sunday, there were drawdowns to $34K on the low-liquid market. So the rate of the first cryptocurrency fell to $38K with a 3.8% loss. However, over the past 24 hours, BTC has reached $39,000 while Ethereum has lost 4.5%. Other leading altcoins from the top ten decline from 2% (XRP) to 6.8% (LUNA). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 3.8%, to $1.71 trillion. The bitcoin dominance index sank from 42.9% on Friday to 42.3% due to the sale of bitcoin over the weekend. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index is at 23 now, remaining in a state of "extreme fear". Looking back, in the middle of the week, the index had a moment in the neutral position. The FxPro Analyst team mentioned that the sales were triggered by reports that the BTC.com pool banned the registration of Russian users. Cryptocurrencies do not remain aloof from politics, and they are weakly confirming the role of an alternative to the banking system now, supporting EU and US sanctions against Russia, and showing their own initiative. The news appeared that Switzerland would freeze the crypto assets of the Russians who fall under the sanctions. In the second half of the week, bitcoin lost almost all the growth against the backdrop of a decline in stock indices. Although, last week started on a positive wave: BTC added almost $8,000 (21%) since previous Monday, but couldn't overcome the strong resistance of mid-February highs at around $45,000 and the 100-day moving average. Speaking about the prospects, pressure on all risky assets will continue to be exerted by the situation around Ukraine, where hostilities have been taking place for two weeks. Worth mentioning that the world-famous investor and writer Robert Kiyosaki said that the US is “destroying the dollar” and called for investing in gold and bitcoin. At the same time, the founder of the investment company SkyBridge Capital (Anthony Scaramucci) is confident that bitcoin will reach $100,000 by 2024. At the moment, he has invested about $1 billion in BTC. Plis, a group of American senators is developing a bill that opens access to the crypto market for institutional investors. And one more news to consider: the city of Lugano in Switzerland has recognized bitcoin and the leading stablecoin Tether (USDT) as legal tender.
Gold: Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Macro Influences - The Latest "As Good As Gold" Is Here!

Price Of Gold (XAUUSD), Silver Price and WTI – Video Analysis

Jason Sen Jason Sen 07.03.2022 10:55
Gold Spot a low for the day exactly at first support at 1929/27 on Friday & again we remain buyers on weakness to support levels. UPDATE: Gold gapped higher on Sunday to reach 2000 Silver also consolidates gains in the bull trend with no sell signal so we remain buyers on weakness to support levels. UPDATE: Silver gapped higher to 2614. WTI Crude April rockets higher but holds the 16.57 high. A double top would trigger losses to 100 if confirmed but we need to see what candle signals we get on Monday's close. UPDATE: WTI Crude has gapped higher on the open hitting 130.50. Update daily by 05:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Gold with an explosive move back up through 1950 & the February high at 1970/73 for yet another buy signal targeting 1990/92 & 2000. A high for the day exactly here over night but definitely no sell signal at this stage! If we continue higher look for 2013/15, 2026/29 & 2035/37. Important support at 1973/70. Longs need stops below 1965. Next target & strong support at 1950/46. Longs need stops below 1940. Silver through resistance at 2555/75 for a buy signal targeting 2600, 2640/50 & 2690/95. Good support expected at 2580/70. Longs need stops below 2560. Next target & strong support at 2520/10. Longs need stops below 2500. WTI Crude April break above 116.80 triggers the next leg higher in the longer term bull trend in hitting my targets of 117.40/45 & 119.20/60 but rocketing as far as 130.50. According to my Fibonacci extensions (all I have to go on now!!) this is quite an important level but of course shorts are very high risk in the bull trend. If we continue higher look for 132.90/133.10 then 138.00/139.00. Minor support at 124.80/20 & 121.00/120.50. Below 120.00 risks a slide to 116.70/116.10 which fills the opening gap. Watch for a low for the day. Longs need stops below 115.00. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
Ether (ETH), Ripple (XRP) Bitcoin Price (BTCUSD) - Video Analysis

Ether (ETH), Ripple (XRP) Bitcoin Price (BTCUSD) - Video Analysis

Jason Sen Jason Sen 07.03.2022 10:17
Bitcoin could not beat the 100 day moving average at 45000 to keep the bears in control for now with shorts at strong resistance at 44100/400 working perfectly on the slide as far as as far as support at 40800/400.   We are edging lower to 38000/37700 now as I write on Sunday - further losses are expected in the bear trend of course to 36500/400 Ripple mostly sideways in recent days. Ethereum we wrote: Shorts at at 3025/55 target minor support at 2870/40 & perhaps as far as 2750/2700 before the weekend. Targets all hit on the upside & downside so far this week. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis Bitcoin breaks support at 40800/400 for profit taking. Longs could be risky in the bear trend, but if you try, stop below 40000 (& look for a target of 42800). However if we continue lower look for 39300/200 & 38000/37700, eventually as far as 33300/31100. Gains are likely to be limited in the bear trend with minor resistance at 42300/500 then strong resistance at 44000/200. Shorts need stops above 45000. Ripple just holding support at 7300/7280 but below here can target 7090/70, perhaps as far as support at 6890/6870. On further losses in the bear trend look for 6730/6690. Minor resistance at 7550/7650. Strong resistance at 7800/7850 should be the best sell opportunity of the week. Ethereum shorts at at 3025/55 worked perfectly targeting minor support at 2870/40 & as far as 2750/2700 before the weekend for some profit taking. However further losses look likely eventually to strong support from 2660 down to 2560 which did hold the downside again as I write on Sunday. A break lower eventually however does look likely to the the 500 day moving average at 2490/80. WE HAVE NOT HAD A DAILY CLOSE BELOW THE 500 DMA FOR ALMOST 2 YEARS. If this happens now it would be an important sell signal. Gains are likely to be limited in the bear trend with resistance at 2790/2810 & again at resistance at 3025/55 with a high for the day exactly here. A break above 3100 retests the February high at 3200/3280. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
The Swing Overview - Week 9

The Swing Overview - Week 9

Purple Trading Purple Trading 07.03.2022 20:22
The Swing Overview - Week 9 The war in Ukraine continues, and although we all want this tragic event to be ended immediately, but unfortunately, according to last statements of Russian officials, it looks like the war will drag on for a longer period of time. Investors have reacted to this development by selling risk assets, including the Czech koruna. Stock indices are losing ground and the DAX in particular has been under heavy pressure. On the other hand, commodities such as oil, gold, and coal are strengthening strongly. Somewhat surprising is the development in the Australian dollar, which usually weakens in the events of geopolitical uncertainties. However, there is a reason for its current rise. More on this in our article. Conflict in Ukraine   Vladimir Putin probably did not expect to encounter such a brave resistance from Ukraine and that  almost the whole world would send Russia into isolation through significant sanctions. The list of companies and actions that have cut ties with Russia is growing day by the day and Western companies are leaving Russia. Thus, for Russians, foreign goods (food, clothing, furniture, electronics, cars) will gradually become very rare. Probably the strongest sanction that Russia has felt so far, was the freeze of the Russian Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves. In response, the Russian ruble began to depreciate significantly on February 28, 2022, and has already lost more than 30% of its pre-invasion value. In response, the Russian Central Bank intervened by raising the interest rate to 20%, which temporarily halted the ruble's fall.    Figure 1: The Russian ruble paired with the USD and the euro Meanwhile, Western countries have not exhausted all options to stop Russia in this war through economic sanctions in case of further escalation of the conflict yet. The fact that European countries might stop taking Russian gas is also at stake. This would, of course, have a very significant impact on the entire European economy. However, these are still just some economic losses, which can not be   compared at all with the losses of lives experienced by the unprecedentedly attacked Ukraine. In any case, this crisis seems to have the potential to surpass in its consequences the crisis that occurred in Russia in 1998, which led to inflation exceeding 80% and central bank interest rates reaching 150%.   Data from the US economy The ISM manufacturing sentiment indicator for February came in at 58.6 which is better than expected and points to an optimistic development of the US economy. In the labour market sector, the ADP (non-farm job change) indicator was reported, which showed that 475 thousand jobs were created in America in February (compared to 509 thousand in January). The number of unemployment claims reached 215 thousand last week, which was less than expected 226 thousand. Thus, the data show that the US economy is doing well so far and the US Fed is going to raise interest rates at its next meeting on March 16, 2022. Jerome Powell said that he would support a 0.25% rate hike. Powell also said that the war in Ukraine means significant uncertainty for monetary policy.   The US dollar and bond yields The US dollar continues to strengthen, as the USD index shows. In addition to the expected US interest rate hike, the US dollar bullishness is explained by demand for US government bonds in times of uncertainty. Demand for these bonds then pushes down their yields, which continue to fall. Figure 2: 10-year government bond yield on the 4H chart and USD index on the daily chart Index SP500 The US SP 500 index moved in a consolidation range last week. This shows that investors have so far viewed the conflict in Ukraine as an event that is more or less a regional event and therefore saw cheap stocks as a buying opportunity.  However, the sanctions adopted by Western countries will of course also have an impact on the global economy, especially if the conflict deepens further. This concern was then reflected at the end of the week when the index started to weaken. Figure 3: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   Resistance according to the H4 chart is in the region of around 4,410 - 4,420. The nearest support according to the H4 chart is at 4255 - 4284. Significant support is at 4,100 - 4,113. German DAX index In contrast to the SP 500 index, there was a big sell-off in the DAX, showing that investors are worried, among other things, that a further escalation of the conflict could lead to a disruption in the supply of Russian gas, on which Germany is heavily dependent.  According to the daily chart, it looks like the DAX index is now in free fall and is breaking through support barriers as if they did not exist. It looks like the market is starting to show signs of panic selling by inexperienced investors.  If you are speculating in the short term, then bear in mind that short term speculation against such a strong downtrend is very disadvantageous and risky.   Figure 4: DAX on H4 and daily chart     Current resistance is in the area of 13,655 - 13,756. The price is now at support at 13,400, which is already slightly broken, but the closing of the whole session will be crucial. The next support is then at 13 000 - 13 100.   The Czech koruna is losing significantly The Czech koruna has long benefited from the interest rate differential, which has been very favourable for the koruna against the euro and has been the reason why the koruna has appreciated strongly since November 2021. But the Czech koruna, along with other Central European currencies, is a currency that is losing ground heavily in the current conflict.   Figure 5: The EURCZK on the daily chart   Firstly, there is the concern that the Czech Republic is geographically quite close to Ukraine, even though the Czech Republic does not have very significant exports directly with Ukraine nor Russia (in total, around 3% of total Czech exports). At the same time, there is concern about the Czech Republic's dependence on Russian gas. If the taps are closed, then the koruna could shoot above  CZK 27 per euro. Currently, the EURCZK pair is trading at the resistance level of 25. 80 - 25.90.   The Australian dollar The Australian dollar is a currency that tends to weaken during major global crises. In particular, the AUDJPY pair is correlated with the SP 500 index in the short term. Currently, however, the Australian dollar is strengthening.  This is because the Australian economy is export-oriented and exports commodities such as gold, iron ore, coal and gas.  All these commodities are now in high demand. Europe, for example, is realising that dependence on Russian gas is not paying off and is looking for alternatives. A temporary solution will be to rebuild coal-fired power stations. Germany and Italy have already started to buy coal stocks, which are therefore appreciating strongly. As a result, the price of coal has sky-rocketed, with one tonne reaching a record price of the USD 400. Figure 6: The coal price   The gold, traditionally seen as a safe haven in times of uncertainty, is also strengthening. The gold has also been helped by a fall in US bond yields.   Figure 7: The gold on H4 and D1 charts   In terms of technical analysis, the gold stopped at the resistance of $1,973 per ounce. The nearest support according to the daily chart is  $1,870 - 1,878 per ounce. The rise in commodity prices then resulted in the strengthening of the Australian dollar.     Figure 8: The AUDJPY currency pair on D1 chart   The AUDJPY broke the resistance in the range of 0.8400 - 0.8420, which became the new support. The next resistance is then at the level of 85.90 - 86.20.  
CFD Update: Three Markets to Watch as Markets Open Today

CFD Update: Three Markets to Watch as Markets Open Today

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 07.03.2022 12:08
Markets have started the week with further heavy selling as the conflict in Ukraine continued to intensify. From Friday’s crazy reports of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant being shelled to broken ceasefires and trapped residents unable to evacuate. Today’s reports suggested Russia had agreed to stop fighting on their side to finally allow trapped residents to evacuate to safe zones.  Oil and Gold have been headline movers, but it hasn’t been all about them. We have continued to watch stock drops on stock indexes. European indexes and Asian indexes have been particularly hard hit, with several losing over 15% in the last two monthly bars, including this month. Oil has not only been a flyer as the world watches Russia and Ukraine, but the energy shock has sent oil prices flying. WTI has seen over 40% added in the last two months, and the rally has been running for the last four months straight. Oil jumped to 13-year highs today as reports mentioned the U.S and Europe could look at banning Russian crude imports.  Getting back to stock indexes, the oil rally has also contributed to the decline. Oil at these highs ramps up inflation fears, that are already running hot and start to put growth pressure back on economies that are just beginning to come out of the pandemic. Business requires energy. High energy costs make business more expensive and can be passed onto the consumer, increasing the cost of goods.  Surging inflation has mainly been a US and European issue, but if it ramped up all over the world, many economies might not be ready to start raising rates to combat it. For instance, Australia’s building industry has been kept alive by a super-hot housing market. Rising rates could cool off the housing market and put pressure on the building and trade industries. One major building group just failed. Higher rates and reduced business could show cracks in more companies.  We’ve picked a few markets out to take a closer look.  Euro Stoxx 50 The Euro Stoxx 50 lost 20% to its low. Europen shares, especially German shares, have been hit hard by the conflict in Ukraine. Sellers have cut close half of the rally seen from 2020. Today sellers retraced all gains made in 2021 after hitting 3381.  Hang Seng Index This one went a little under the radar, but I saw the damage that has been done to this index and was quite surprised. 14% has been wiped off the index in the last two months and the price today slipped below the 2020 low. When you compare it to the JPN225 that’s where the shock comes from, as it has dropped 8%. Gold Gold has been a significant talking point during the crisis. Good old Gold went straight back to safe mode as traders looked for a safe bet in a time of crisis. The rally in the last two months has been rather explosive. Buyers have added over 11% to the value, and we saw $2000USD touched today. Price now sits 3.72% away from retesting highs set back in 2020 in the heart of the pandemic. Another factor that might be adding to the appreciation. Reposts suggest that Gold could be being used to pay for oil. This is interesting as oil has always been paid for in USD. But with Russia partially locked out of SWIFT and the Fed blocking their USD transactions, Gold could be a new payment option moving forward.  Uncertainty presents Volatility Currently, our margin levels remain unchanged across all instruments and we offer one of the best swap conditions on key instruments such as Gold. Make the most out of market movements right now with Eightcap. For more information on market updates and our swap rates, please contact our award-winning customer service team. The post CFD Update: Three Markets to Watch as Markets Open Today appeared first on Eightcap.
COT Soft Commodities Speculators push their Corn bullish bets to 42-week high

COT Soft Commodities Speculators push their Corn bullish bets to 42-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 05.03.2022 17:24
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the continued gains in the Corn futures bets. The speculative net position in the Corn futures rose this week for a second consecutive week and for the fourth time in six weeks. Corn speculator bets have risen by a total of +46,446 contracts over these past two weeks and pushed the current net speculator standing to the highest level in the last forty-two weeks, dating back to May 11th of 2021 when the net position totaled +500,856 contracts. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has boosted already rising soft commodities markets with Corn, Soybeans and Wheat seeing especially sharp gains in the past two weeks. The soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Corn (9,196 contracts), Sugar (9,293 contracts), Soybean Oil (1,859 contracts), Soybean Meal (1,083 contracts), Cotton (1,526 contracts) and Wheat (10,345 contracts). The soft commodities that saw lower bets this week were Cocoa (-16,484 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,199 contracts), Coffee (-5,885 contracts), Soybeans (-7,557 contracts) and Live Cattle (-23,204 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,028,476 25 368,663 14 -410,955 79 42,292 75 Gold 615,600 51 257,622 70 -285,809 30 28,187 44 Silver 157,391 23 44,948 67 -57,150 43 12,202 14 Copper 195,398 23 22,093 58 -29,380 39 7,287 67 Palladium 7,242 4 -904 16 423 79 481 73 Platinum 65,383 31 16,890 26 -24,196 74 7,306 64 Natural Gas 1,112,832 3 -126,409 41 90,088 59 36,321 71 Brent 198,920 39 -6,707 100 4,004 0 2,703 46 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 758,796 35 218,907 84 -189,233 21 -29,674 21 Corn 1,484,670 18 460,938 89 -427,812 11 -33,126 24 Coffee 252,545 24 61,906 94 -66,290 8 4,384 19 Sugar 816,211 0 84,539 54 -105,323 48 20,784 34 Wheat 372,124 19 6,443 52 303 41 -6,746 69   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 460,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 451,742 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.8 44.0 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 72.8 11.4 – Net Position: 460,938 -427,812 -33,126 – Gross Longs: 531,633 652,937 136,120 – Gross Shorts: 70,695 1,080,749 169,246 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.9 11.0 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.3 -12.1 7.1   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,539 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,293 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,246 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.2 54.4 9.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.8 67.3 7.2 – Net Position: 84,539 -105,323 20,784 – Gross Longs: 180,931 443,667 79,458 – Gross Shorts: 96,392 548,990 58,674 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.0 48.2 33.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.9 4.1 8.5   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 61,906 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,885 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,791 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.0 44.3 4.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.5 70.5 2.5 – Net Position: 61,906 -66,290 4,384 – Gross Longs: 73,322 111,809 10,704 – Gross Shorts: 11,416 178,099 6,320 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 93.6 7.9 18.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.4 0.5 8.5   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 218,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 226,464 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.9 43.3 6.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.1 68.3 10.6 – Net Position: 218,907 -189,233 -29,674 – Gross Longs: 264,899 328,781 50,659 – Gross Shorts: 45,992 518,014 80,333 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.4 21.3 20.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.4 -22.8 10.4   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,952 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,093 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.4 46.7 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.9 73.3 5.2 – Net Position: 84,952 -100,238 15,286 – Gross Longs: 110,869 175,682 34,986 – Gross Shorts: 25,917 275,920 19,700 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.7 29.7 70.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.0 -20.1 25.0   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 113,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,083 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,100 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.2 44.0 11.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.7 78.9 5.0 – Net Position: 113,183 -138,449 25,266 – Gross Longs: 127,976 175,029 45,168 – Gross Shorts: 14,793 313,478 19,902 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.1 3.7 71.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.9 -17.2 -7.3   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 59,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -23,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,243 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.3 38.5 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.8 52.8 11.7 – Net Position: 59,039 -51,142 -7,897 – Gross Longs: 115,502 137,310 33,952 – Gross Shorts: 56,463 188,452 41,849 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.6 65.8 67.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.0 5.7 -5.9   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 61,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,199 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,438 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.2 32.4 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 51.4 11.8 – Net Position: 61,239 -52,397 -8,842 – Gross Longs: 102,930 89,767 23,714 – Gross Shorts: 41,691 142,164 32,556 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.5 29.6 41.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.1 -21.6 28.2   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 91,828 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,526 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,302 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.2 38.4 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.7 81.4 3.4 – Net Position: 91,828 -102,842 11,014 – Gross Longs: 103,148 91,726 19,051 – Gross Shorts: 11,320 194,568 8,037 – Long to Short Ratio: 9.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 81.2 17.8 82.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.1 3.2 -13.2   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,484 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,915 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.6 45.5 7.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.5 59.5 3.2 – Net Position: 25,431 -35,441 10,010 – Gross Longs: 74,581 114,758 18,047 – Gross Shorts: 49,150 150,199 8,037 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.5 47.2 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 -4.1 68.8   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 6,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,902 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.2 42.2 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.5 42.1 10.2 – Net Position: 6,443 303 -6,746 – Gross Longs: 104,934 157,102 31,257 – Gross Shorts: 98,491 156,799 38,003 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 52.5 41.1 69.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.4 -4.7 15.5   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
WTI Crude Oil Speculator bets see largest 1-week rise since 2020 on Russia Invasion

WTI Crude Oil Speculator bets see largest 1-week rise since 2020 on Russia Invasion

Invest Macro Invest Macro 05.03.2022 18:06
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT energy data is this week’s jump in the WTI Crude Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the WTI Crude Oil futures rose this week for the first time in the past six weeks and had the largest one-week gain of the past sixty-six weeks, dating back to November 24th of 2020. The WTI Crude contract had been seeing a weakness in speculator positions despite the ramping up of the Russia-Ukraine situation as spec positions had fallen for six straight weeks before this week’s turnaround. Crude oil prices have surged on the Russian invasion of Ukraine with oil closing this week right below the $116 per barrel level which marks the highest price close since 2008. Joining WTI Crude Oil (29,622 contracts) in gaining this week were Brent Crude Oil (19,648 contracts) and Natural Gas (4,220 contracts) while Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts), Gasoline (-1,144 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-709 contracts) saw falling contracts. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,028,476 25 368,663 14 -410,955 79 42,292 75 Gold 615,600 51 257,622 70 -285,809 30 28,187 44 Silver 157,391 23 44,948 67 -57,150 43 12,202 14 Copper 195,398 23 22,093 58 -29,380 39 7,287 67 Palladium 7,242 4 -904 16 423 79 481 73 Platinum 65,383 31 16,890 26 -24,196 74 7,306 64 Natural Gas 1,112,832 3 -126,409 41 90,088 59 36,321 71 Brent 198,920 39 -6,707 100 4,004 0 2,703 46 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 758,796 35 218,907 84 -189,233 21 -29,674 21 Corn 1,484,670 18 460,938 89 -427,812 11 -33,126 24 Coffee 252,545 24 61,906 94 -66,290 8 4,384 19 Sugar 816,211 0 84,539 54 -105,323 48 20,784 34 Wheat 372,124 19 6,443 52 303 41 -6,746 69   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 368,663 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 29,622 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 339,041 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.9 36.0 4.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 56.2 2.8 – Net Position: 368,663 -410,955 42,292 – Gross Longs: 465,365 729,585 99,568 – Gross Shorts: 96,702 1,140,540 57,276 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.0 79.1 74.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.7 6.4 1.4   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -6,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 19,648 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,355 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.1 40.9 4.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.5 38.9 2.9 – Net Position: -6,707 4,004 2,703 – Gross Longs: 45,940 81,376 8,390 – Gross Shorts: 52,647 77,372 5,687 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 45.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.7 -21.9 -4.0   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -126,409 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,220 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,629 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.1 43.6 5.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.4 35.5 2.1 – Net Position: -126,409 90,088 36,321 – Gross Longs: 245,502 484,644 59,416 – Gross Shorts: 371,911 394,556 23,095 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.6 59.3 70.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 1.2 11.2   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 62,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,144 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,587 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.8 50.4 6.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.6 70.4 3.6 – Net Position: 62,443 -72,465 10,022 – Gross Longs: 97,185 182,352 22,896 – Gross Shorts: 34,742 254,817 12,874 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.8 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.6 64.5 71.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.7 -5.2 21.2   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9 – Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979 – Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210 – Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,876 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -709 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,167 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 63.4 29.1 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 94.6 1.6 0.2 – Net Position: -12,876 11,345 1,531 – Gross Longs: 26,144 12,001 1,605 – Gross Shorts: 39,020 656 74 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 18.3 to 1 21.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.2 36.9 73.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.0 -16.8 34.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Silver Speculator’s bullish bets climb to 15-week high as prices rise above $25

Silver Speculator’s bullish bets climb to 15-week high as prices rise above $25

Invest Macro Invest Macro 05.03.2022 18:29
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the rising speculator sentiment in the Silver futures bets. The speculative net position in the Silver futures rose this week for the third consecutive week and for the seventh time out of the past ten weeks. Silver speculator bets have now gained by a total of +25,649 contracts over these past three weeks and this week’s rise by +14,646 contracts marked the largest one-week gain in the past one hundred and fourteen weeks, dating all the way back to December of 2019. The current speculator contract standing has reached the highest level of the past fifteen weeks with a total of +44,948 contracts. The Silver price has been on the upswing with prices reaching the best levels since August and above the $25.75 per ounce level. Joining Silver (14,646 contracts) with higher speculator bets this week were Gold (14,474 contracts) and Palladium (525 contracts) while Copper (-3,482 contracts) and Platinum (-650 contracts) saw lower speculator positions for the week. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,028,476 25 368,663 14 -410,955 79 42,292 75 Gold 615,600 51 257,622 70 -285,809 30 28,187 44 Silver 157,391 23 44,948 67 -57,150 43 12,202 14 Copper 195,398 23 22,093 58 -29,380 39 7,287 67 Palladium 7,242 4 -904 16 423 79 481 73 Platinum 65,383 31 16,890 26 -24,196 74 7,306 64 Natural Gas 1,112,832 3 -126,409 41 90,088 59 36,321 71 Brent 198,920 39 -6,707 100 4,004 0 2,703 46 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 758,796 35 218,907 84 -189,233 21 -29,674 21 Corn 1,484,670 18 460,938 89 -427,812 11 -33,126 24 Coffee 252,545 24 61,906 94 -66,290 8 4,384 19 Sugar 816,211 0 84,539 54 -105,323 48 20,784 34 Wheat 372,124 19 6,443 52 303 41 -6,746 69   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 257,622 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 14,474 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 243,148 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.5 20.7 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.7 67.1 3.6 – Net Position: 257,622 -285,809 28,187 – Gross Longs: 354,177 127,231 50,266 – Gross Shorts: 96,555 413,040 22,079 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.6 30.4 44.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.1 -19.7 3.8   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 44,948 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,302 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.3 32.7 16.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.7 69.0 8.3 – Net Position: 44,948 -57,150 12,202 – Gross Longs: 71,235 51,440 25,234 – Gross Shorts: 26,287 108,590 13,032 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.2 42.8 13.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.2 -15.3 2.1   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 22,093 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,482 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,575 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.7 38.5 9.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.3 53.5 5.9 – Net Position: 22,093 -29,380 7,287 – Gross Longs: 75,526 75,232 18,908 – Gross Shorts: 53,433 104,612 11,621 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.3 39.3 67.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.2 0.8 -5.4   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 16,890 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,540 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 51.9 29.6 14.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.0 66.6 3.6 – Net Position: 16,890 -24,196 7,306 – Gross Longs: 33,902 19,330 9,637 – Gross Shorts: 17,012 43,526 2,331 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 4.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.2 74.4 64.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.1 -16.2 22.7   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 525 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,429 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.3 44.8 20.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.8 39.0 13.9 – Net Position: -904 423 481 – Gross Longs: 2,412 3,248 1,488 – Gross Shorts: 3,316 2,825 1,007 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.4 78.9 73.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.8 -17.1 34.2   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Bonds Speculators drop their 5-Year US Treasuries bets to 172-week low

COT Bonds Speculators drop their 5-Year US Treasuries bets to 172-week low

Invest Macro Invest Macro 05.03.2022 19:55
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 1st 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT bonds data is the surge higher in the bearish bets of the 5-Year Bond futures. The speculative bearish position in the 5-Year has increased for four straight weeks and has seen bearish bets change by at least -125,000 contracts in each of the past two weeks. The cumulative decline over the past four weeks has now amounted to a total of -353,515 contracts. This bearishness has pushed the current speculator standing to the most negative level in the past one hundred and seventy-two weeks, dating back to November of 2018. The speculator strength index score also hit a zero percent score this week, reiterating the weakness of the 5-Year speculator sentiment (the speculator strength index is the current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme). Despite the speculator weakness, the 5-Year Bond price this week rose as safe havens were bid with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the risk-off tone of the markets. The bond markets with higher speculator positions this week were the 2-Year Bond (9,132 contracts), Eurodollar (163,136 contracts) and the Long US Treasury Bond (10,209 contracts) while the bond markets with lower speculator positions were the 5-Year Bond (-126,803 contracts), 10-Year Bond (-80,691 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (-17,360 contracts), Fed Funds (-112,320 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-880 contracts). Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index Eurodollar 11,107,908 47 -2,219,731 3 2,611,337 96 -391,606 18 FedFunds 1,860,806 63 -139,272 22 159,332 79 -20,060 12 2-Year 2,047,626 11 -110,827 60 180,391 59 -69,564 14 Long T-Bond 1,113,867 34 -4,529 92 28,819 29 -24,290 33 10-Year 3,772,058 49 -365,783 16 585,754 95 -219,971 27 5-Year 3,807,232 37 -474,039 0 706,436 100 -232,397 17   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,219,731 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 163,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,382,867 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.3 74.8 3.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.3 51.3 7.2 – Net Position: -2,219,731 2,611,337 -391,606 – Gross Longs: 591,420 8,313,755 411,021 – Gross Shorts: 2,811,151 5,702,418 802,627 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.3 95.7 18.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.0 7.6 0.8   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -139,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -112,320 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,952 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 2.3 78.7 1.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.8 70.2 2.5 – Net Position: -139,272 159,332 -20,060 – Gross Longs: 43,149 1,464,992 26,323 – Gross Shorts: 182,421 1,305,660 46,383 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 22.4 79.2 12.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.7 15.1 5.7   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -110,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,132 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -119,959 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.7 78.4 7.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.1 69.6 11.0 – Net Position: -110,827 180,391 -69,564 – Gross Longs: 240,027 1,605,575 155,387 – Gross Shorts: 350,854 1,425,184 224,951 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.9 59.3 14.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.2 33.6 -1.8   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -474,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -126,803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -347,236 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.2 83.1 7.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.7 64.5 13.1 – Net Position: -474,039 706,436 -232,397 – Gross Longs: 275,611 3,163,442 267,288 – Gross Shorts: 749,650 2,457,006 499,685 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 17.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -45.1 27.8 8.1   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -365,783 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -80,691 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -285,092 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.5 77.5 8.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.2 62.0 14.3 – Net Position: -365,783 585,754 -219,971 – Gross Longs: 397,091 2,925,060 319,742 – Gross Shorts: 762,874 2,339,306 539,713 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.7 95.0 27.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -14.5 5.8 11.0   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 6,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,360 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,543 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.9 74.3 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.4 65.8 18.3 – Net Position: 6,183 113,368 -119,551 – Gross Longs: 199,058 992,920 124,560 – Gross Shorts: 192,875 879,552 244,111 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.4 76.0 43.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.4 2.5 36.5   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,209 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,738 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 72.8 13.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.3 70.2 16.0 – Net Position: -4,529 28,819 -24,290 – Gross Longs: 120,945 810,886 154,016 – Gross Shorts: 125,474 782,067 178,306 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.8 29.3 33.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.4 -9.9 -9.3   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -335,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -880 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -334,381 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.2 80.0 12.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.7 56.4 9.6 – Net Position: -335,261 297,953 37,308 – Gross Longs: 79,120 1,012,450 159,109 – Gross Shorts: 414,381 714,497 121,801 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.4 60.8 55.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.3 -2.0 0.7   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Large Currency Speculators raise their Brazilian Real bullish bets to Record High

Large Currency Speculators raise their Brazilian Real bullish bets to Record High

Invest Macro Invest Macro 05.03.2022 20:47
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the jump in bullish bets in the Brazilian Real currency futures contracts. Real speculators increased their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and by a total of +63,801 contracts over this four-week time-frame. This bullishness has taken the Real speculator level from -13,353 net positions on February 1st to +50,448 net positions this week. The current overall speculator standing has now climbed to the most bullish level on record, according to the CFTC data that goes back to the mid-1990’s and eclipsing the previous high set in 2017. The BRLUSD currency pair price has been in an uptrend since the beginning of the year and has reached the highest levels since June just below the 0.2000 exchange rate. The currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Brazil real (26,003 contracts), Mexican peso (25,553 contracts), Euro (5,633 contracts), British pound sterling (5,472 contracts), Canadian dollar (4,887 contracts), Australian dollar (5,744 contracts) and Bitcoin (363 contracts). The currencies with lower speculator bets were the US Dollar Index (-1,310 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,545 contracts), Swiss franc (-4,261 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,621 contracts) and the Russian ruble (-9,843 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 56,651 82 34,774 86 -39,391 9 4,617 67 EUR 719,975 91 64,939 55 -95,105 49 30,166 24 GBP 211,869 46 -337 74 14,129 38 -13,792 27 JPY 208,629 61 -68,732 25 79,535 76 -10,803 27 CHF 47,273 24 -15,248 43 20,862 54 -5,614 47 CAD 143,507 26 14,140 61 -21,586 42 7,446 45 AUD 189,667 75 -78,336 12 87,737 84 -9,401 30 NZD 50,389 44 -14,172 47 16,090 55 -1,918 30 MXN 154,664 28 42,378 45 -45,811 54 3,433 58 RUB 24,753 11 9,674 36 -9,068 65 -606 18 BRL 94,577 100 24,445 74 -27,081 25 2,636 97 Bitcoin 9,980 51 80 99 -517 0 437 23   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 34,774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,310 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,084 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.2 8.5 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.9 78.1 2.3 – Net Position: 34,774 -39,391 4,617 – Gross Longs: 43,761 4,831 5,942 – Gross Shorts: 8,987 44,222 1,325 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.1 to 1 4.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.8 9.1 67.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.9 5.0 -14.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 64,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,306 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.7 54.2 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.7 67.4 7.5 – Net Position: 64,939 -95,105 30,166 – Gross Longs: 228,385 390,260 84,321 – Gross Shorts: 163,446 485,365 54,155 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.9 48.8 24.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.4 -12.6 7.1   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -337 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,809 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.5 62.1 10.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.7 55.4 17.2 – Net Position: -337 14,129 -13,792 – Gross Longs: 47,679 131,583 22,551 – Gross Shorts: 48,016 117,454 36,343 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.8 38.0 27.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.1 6.7 -23.2   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -68,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,187 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.0 80.3 10.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.0 42.2 15.9 – Net Position: -68,732 79,535 -10,803 – Gross Longs: 14,665 167,605 22,407 – Gross Shorts: 83,397 88,070 33,210 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.6 75.7 26.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.7 -10.0 17.5   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -15,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,987 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.5 74.1 21.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.7 30.0 33.3 – Net Position: -15,248 20,862 -5,614 – Gross Longs: 1,651 35,045 10,127 – Gross Shorts: 16,899 14,183 15,741 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.3 54.3 46.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.8 8.0 -7.7   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,140 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,253 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.5 40.1 21.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.6 55.2 16.3 – Net Position: 14,140 -21,586 7,446 – Gross Longs: 50,881 57,576 30,817 – Gross Shorts: 36,741 79,162 23,371 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 61.4 42.2 44.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.4 -5.4 2.4   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -78,336 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,080 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.7 80.1 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.0 33.8 15.4 – Net Position: -78,336 87,737 -9,401 – Gross Longs: 12,720 151,922 19,865 – Gross Shorts: 91,056 64,185 29,266 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.2 84.4 29.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.4 -8.0 1.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -14,172 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,551 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.8 72.1 5.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.9 40.2 9.1 – Net Position: -14,172 16,090 -1,918 – Gross Longs: 10,485 36,326 2,665 – Gross Shorts: 24,657 20,236 4,583 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.5 55.2 29.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 8.4 4.3   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 42,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 25,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,825 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 48.5 46.9 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.1 76.5 1.9 – Net Position: 42,378 -45,811 3,433 – Gross Longs: 74,971 72,497 6,306 – Gross Shorts: 32,593 118,308 2,873 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.4 53.7 57.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.0 -16.0 3.7   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 24,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,760 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 55.0 40.2 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 68.9 2.0 – Net Position: 24,445 -27,081 2,636 – Gross Longs: 51,990 38,039 4,541 – Gross Shorts: 27,545 65,120 1,905 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.4 24.7 97.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 34.7 -37.1 31.8   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 9,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,843 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,517 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.6 51.9 3.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.6 88.5 5.9 – Net Position: 9,674 -9,068 -606 – Gross Longs: 11,050 12,848 855 – Gross Shorts: 1,376 21,916 1,461 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.3 64.8 18.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.7 -4.2 -39.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 80 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -283 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.0 3.2 12.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 79.2 8.4 7.6 – Net Position: 80 -517 437 – Gross Longs: 7,981 321 1,198 – Gross Shorts: 7,901 838 761 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 98.7 0.0 22.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.8 -39.7 -3.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Is It Too Late To Begin Adapting To Higher Volatility In The Market?

Is It Too Late To Begin Adapting To Higher Volatility In The Market?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 07.03.2022 22:18
Now is the time for traders to adapt to higher volatility and rapidly changing market conditions. One of the best ways to do this is to monitor different asset classes and track which investments are gaining and losing money flow. Knowing what the Best Asset Now is (BAN) is critical for consistent growth no matter the market condition.With that said, buyers (countries, investors, and traders) are panicking as the commodity Wheat, for example, gained more than 40% last week.‘Panic Commodity Buying’ in Wheat – Weekly ChartAccording to the US Dept. of Agriculture, China will hold 69% of the world’s corn reserves, 60% of rice and 51% of wheat by mid-2022.Commodity markets surged to their largest gains in years as Ukrainian ports were closed and sanctions against Russia sent buyers scrambling for replacement supplies. Global commodities, commodity funds, and commodity ETFs are attracting huge capital inflows as investors seek to cash in on the rally in oil, metals, and grains.How does the Russia – Ukraine war affect global food supplies?The conflict between major commodity producers Russia and Ukraine is causing countries that rely heavily on commodity imports to feed their citizens to enter into panic buying. The breadbaskets of Ukraine and Russia account for more than 25% of the global wheat trade and nearly 20% of the global corn trade.Last week, it was reported that many countries have dangerously low grain supplies. Nader Saad, an Egypt Cabinet spokesman, has raised the alarm that currently, Egypt has only nine months’ worth of wheat in silos. The supply includes five months of strategic reserves and four months of domestic production to cover the bread needs of 102 million Egyptians. Additionally, Avigdor Lieberman, Israel’s economic minister, said on Thursday (3/3/22) that his country should keep “a low profile” regarding the conflict in eastern Europe, given that Israel imports 50 percent of its wheat from Russia and 30 percent from Ukraine.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!The longer-term potential for much higher grain prices exists, but it’s worth noting that Friday’s close of nearly $12.00 a bushel for wheat is not that far away from the all-time record high of $13.30, recorded 14-years ago. According to Trading Economics, wheat has gone up 75.08% year-to-date while other commodity markets like Oats are up a whopping 85.13%, Coffee 74.68%, and Corn 34.07%.How are other markets reacting to these global events?Year-to-date comparison returns as of 3/4/2022:-9.18% S&P 500 (index), -7.49% DJI (index), -15.21% Nasdaq (index), +37.44% Exxon Mobile (oil), +20.08% Freeport McMoran (copper & gold), -20.68% Tesla (alternative energy), -24.49% Microstrategy (bitcoin play), -40.51% Meta-Facebook (social media)As stock holdings and 401k’s are shrinking it may be time to re-evaluate your portfolio. There are ETFs available that can give you exposure to commodities, energy, and metals.Here is an example of a few of these ETFs:+53.81% WEAT Teucrium Wheat Fund+41.79% GSG iShares S&P TSCI Commodity -Indexed Trust+104.40 UCO ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil+59.32% PALL Aberdeen Standard Physical Palladium SharesHow is the global investor reacting to rocketing commodity prices and increasing market volatility?We can track global money flow by monitoring the following 1-month currency graph (www.finviz.com). The Australian Dollar is up +4.25%, the New Zealand Dollar +3.72%, and the Canadian Dollar +0.30% vs. the US Dollar due to the rising commodity prices like metals and energy. These country currencies are known as commodity currencies.The Switzerland Franc +0.96%, the Japanese Yen +0.35%, and the US Dollar +0.00% are all benefiting from global capital seeking a safe haven. As volatility continues to spike, these country currencies will experience more inflows as capital comes out of depreciating assets and seeks stability.We also notice that capital outflow is occurring from the European Union-Eurodollar -4.55% and the British Pound -2.22% due to their close proximity (risk) to the Russia - Ukraine war.www.finviz.comGlobal central banks will need to begin raising their interest rates to combat high inflation!Due to the rapid acceleration of inflation, the US Federal Reserve may have been looking to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at its policy meeting two weeks from now. However, given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the FED may become more cautious and consider raising interest rates by only 25 basis points on March 15-16.What strategies can help you navigate current market trends?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals are starting to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.Now is the time to keep your eye on the ball!I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 1/3/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 1/3/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 07.03.2022 21:35
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 1/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index fell 1,310 contracts last week. This change is the result of 35 contracts increase in long positions and a 1,345 contracts increase in short positions. Growth in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound, the Australian dollar, and the Canadian dollar. Decreases in total net positions occurred in the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc.   Following Russia's invasion to Ukraine, markets shifted into risk-off sentiment. This means that especially the euro and the pound are weakening. The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are strengthening due to rising prices of commodities that these countries export. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399 Feb 01, 2022 34571 29716 -23605 -79829 -11698 -60640 18264 -8239 Jan 25, 2022 36861 31560 -7763 -83273 -10773 -68273 12317 -8796 Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Bullish Feb 01, 2022 685431 213563 183847 29716 2479 155 1999 -1844 Weak bullish Jan 25, 2022 682952 213408 181848 31560 -8930 1507 -5469 6976 Bullish         Total change 28093 16484 -23871 40355     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 64,939 contracts last week, which is an increase by 5,633 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 14,190 contracts and an increase in short positions by 8,557 contracts. These data suggest continued bullish sentiment in the euro. Open interest, which has increased by 23,293 contracts in the last week, shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by volume and is therefore strong. The euro is weakening sharply under the influence of the war in Ukraine and we can see that support levels have not been respected in such a strong trend. In a strong downtrend it is very risky to try to catch the bottom and open bullish long positions.  Long-term resistance: 1.0980 – 1.1010. Next resistance is near 1.1120 – 1.1150. Support: 1.0640-1.0700 The British pound date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 184007 29597 53202 -23605 1967 -7069 8773 -15842 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 182040 36666 44429 -7763 -1194 -3094 4422 -7516 Bearish         Total change 28635 7919 8009 -90     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached to -337 contracts, having increased by 5,472 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 5,430 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 42 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment, but it is weak as the total net positions of large speculators increased. Open interest, which rose by 23,426 contracts last week, means that the fall in the pound that occurred last week was supported by volume and is therefore strong. Risk off sentiment due to the war in Ukraine continues to weigh on the pound as well as the euro and therefore the pound is weakening strongly. Long-term resistance: 1.3270-1.3300.  Next resistance is near 1.3420 – 1.3440. The resistance is also in the zone 1.3490 – 1.3520. Support is near 1.3150 – 1.3200.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish Feb 01, 2022 196913 18835 98664 -79829 6893 3714 270 3444 Weak bearish Jan 25, 2022 190020 15121 98394 -83273 8884 6070 889 5181 Weak bearish         Total change 8531 3669 -6449 10118     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached to - 78,336 contracts, up by 5,744 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 1,167 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,577 contracts. This data suggests a weakening of bearish sentiment in the Australian dollar. However, last week we saw a decline in open interest by 2,912 contracts. This means that the upward movement that occurred last week in the AUDUSD was weak because new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar has been strengthening strongly recently, which is explained by the rise in the prices of commodities that Australia exports. These commodities include coal, gas and gold.  Long-term resistance: 0.7520-0.7560                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.7085-0.7120.  A strong support is near 0.6960 – 0.6990.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 58467 19205 30903 -11698 5151 3257 4182 -925 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 53316 15948 26721 -10773 8589 4336 6778 -2442 Bearish         Total change 5662 -1127 4714 -5841     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1     The total net positions of speculators last week reached a value of - 14,172 contracts, having fallen by 2,621 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 6,858 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,237 contracts. This data suggests that the bearish sentiment for the NZD continues. Last week, open interest fell significantly by 6,247 contracts. Therefore, the upward movement in the NZDUSD that occurred last week is not supported by volume and therefore the price action was weak. The strengthening of the NZDUSD that occurred last week is somewhat surprising given the geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and risk off sentiment. What helped the NZD rise are rising prices of commodities  such as milk, which New Zealand produces. Long-term resistance: 0.6850 – 0.6890 Long-term support: 0.6590-0.6600 and the next support is at 0.6500 – 0.6530.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Crude Oil Climbs High. Is It Enough to Enjoy a Better View?

Crude Oil Climbs High. Is It Enough to Enjoy a Better View?

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 07.03.2022 16:45
  The threat of sanctions caused a stir in the markets: WTI spiked above $130 and Brent is nearing the $140 mark. Where is crude oil going next? A possible Western embargo on Russian oil caused oil prices to soar again on Monday, as stock markets feared persistent inflation and a consequent economic slowdown. On the US dollar side, the continued rally of the greenback has propelled the dollar index (DXY) towards higher levels, as it is now approaching the three-figure mark ($100), even though it has not had a huge impact on crude oil, other petroleum products, or any other commodities in general. What we rather witness here is the greenback’s safe haven effect attracting investors, much like gold would tend to act in a “store of value” role. US Dollar Index (DXY) CFD (daily chart) On the geopolitical scene, Russia-Ukraine peace talks will be resumed today in Brest (Belarus) at 14:00 GMT, while another meeting is already scheduled at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum on Thursday in Turkey. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba will talk there in the presence of the Turkish foreign minister. We might therefore expect some de-escalation in the Black Sea basin this week if the two parties involved were able to reach an agreement after further negotiations. WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Brent Crude Oil (BRNK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Regarding natural gas, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2022 report, suggesting that even with non-hydro renewable sources set to rapidly grow through 2050, oil and gas-derived sources should still remain the top energy sources to fuel most of the United States. The agency is forecasting a rise in the production of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) – which mainly comes from shale gas – by at least 35%! In summary, the threat of sanctions has already wiped out almost all Russian oil – at least 7% of global supply – from the world oil market. In the weeks or months to come, we can see sanctions on Russian oil exports create a boomerang effect on European economies, decreasing world market supply, increasing prices for industry, as well as even more rising expenses, and thus cost of living through a ripple effect. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
USDCAD Trades Higher, EURGBP Nears 0.83, S&P 500 (SPX) Fell A Little

USDCAD Trades Higher, EURGBP Nears 0.83, S&P 500 (SPX) Fell A Little

Jing Ren Jing Ren 08.03.2022 09:29
USDCAD breaks higher The US dollar bounces back as traders pile into safer currencies at the expense of commodity assets. The previous rally above the supply zone at 1.2800 has prompted sellers to cover. Then a follow-up pullback saw support over 1.2600, a sign of accumulation and traders’ strong interest in keeping the greenback afloat. A breakout above 1.2810 could pave the way for an extended rise to last December’s high at 1.2950, even though the RSI’s situation may briefly hold the bulls back. 1.2680 is a fresh support in case of a pullback. EURGBP bounces back The euro recoups losses as shorts cover ahead of the ECB meeting. The pair’s fall below the major floor (0.8280) on the daily chart further weighs on sentiment. The lack of support suggests that traders’ are wary of catching a falling knife. The RSI’s double-dip into the oversold area has led to profit-taking, driving the price up. However, the rally could turn out to be a dead cat bounce if the bears fade the rebound in the supply zone around 0.8360. 0.8200 is a fresh support when momentum comes back again. SPX 500 struggles to rebound The S&P 500 extended losses as investors are wary of a global economic downturn. On the daily chart, a brief rebound has met stiff selling pressure on the 30-day moving average (4410). In fact, this indicates that the bearish mood still dominates after the index fell through 4250. Buyers have failed to hold above 4230, leaving the market vulnerable to another round of sell-off. 4110 is the next stop and a bearish breakout could lead to the psychological level of 4000. 4320 is now the closest resistance ahead.
Will The Conflict Between Russia And Ukraine Maintain The Rise Crude Oil Prices?

Will The Conflict Between Russia And Ukraine Maintain The Rise Crude Oil Prices?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 08.03.2022 12:18
Brent oil is trading near $125 - in the 2011 and 2012 highs area. The market continues to receive pretty bullish comments from politicians and officials. However, traders seemed set to pause to digest current price levels after a frightening rally to $129 at one point on Monday, reacting to reports that the US and allies are weighing a ban on Russian oil and gas imports. In Russia, Novak (a former energy minister and co-founder of OPEC+ deals) points out that the oil embargo will push prices into the $300 a barrel area. Probably, this forecast is based on a comparison of the current situation with the OPEC embargo in late 1972, when the price soared 3-4 times within a few weeks. The International Energy Agency's executive director said the Oil can still move higher from current levels. Officially, Russia is not refusing to export Oil and Gas, but local companies have recently failed to sell Oil because of a buyers' boycott or fears of being hit by US and EU sanctions. Shell's just-announced refusal to buy all Russian Oil is doing little to bring down the commodity price. With this news backdrop, Oil is getting support on the downside in the $115 area, where last week's highs were located. It will take a lot more political will to reverse the trend in Oil. Also, the chances of Oil from Iran to make up for the drop-offs are somewhat thawed, as the president has said that Tehran will not give up its red lines. Iran would logically be expected to use the situation to bargain for better terms on a deal with the West. The same applies to Venezuela, where US representatives have headed to secure a rise in global production. Will the countries previously most disadvantaged by US sanctions use the momentum to ramp up production? That question is not yet answered. Likely, we should expect price rises to accelerate in the coming days before the situation reverses into a constructive direction and prices head for a correction.
It's Not Only About Price Of Gold. Palladium Price, Gold (XAUUSD) And Copper Price In Times Of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

It's Not Only About Price Of Gold. Palladium Price, Gold (XAUUSD) And Copper Price In Times Of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 08.03.2022 12:16
While the world discusses the prospect of an embargo on Russian oil and gas, the absolute madness is in metals. In many of them, Russia has a pretty significant share, and investors fear a ban on exports could be Russia’s response to sanctions, on a par with restricting supplies of agricultural products. Palladium set a new all-time high at $3439 on Monday, gaining 14.8% on the day at one point. Nickel reached $100,000/tonne, gaining more than 200% over the two days, but soon retreated to $82,000 (+71% since the start of the day). Aluminum reached $4000 per tonne on Monday, compared with stabilization at $2600 from November to mid-December. Copper exceeded $10800/tonne yesterday, rewriting its historic high. Still, if we apply ‘peacetime’ patterns, we can see short-squeezes and a final capitulation by the bears in one metal after another. A reversal usually follows this. Copper and palladium have been sliding hard after making new all-time highs, and we’re now seeing a distinct tug-of-war between the buyers and the sellers, at an impressive distance from yesterday’s extremes. Nickel is retracing a sharp bounce today. The troy ounce reached $2020 earlier on Tuesday, having hit new highs since August 2020. The momentum in gold gained new strength after restrictions from cryptocurrency exchanges for Russian residents. But here, too, it is worth betting with great caution on the upside, as there will be a big seller entering the market. The Bank of Russia, for the most part, has no other means but to sell off the gold from its reserves in Russia. These steps could be taken tomorrow, as Monday and Tuesday were national holidays. Those actions will keep the price of gold on the way to the all-time highs near $2075, where it could be as early as this week. However, the chances are higher that more sellers will enter into gold, which will cool the current rally, temporarily correcting the price into the $1960-2000 area before the end of March.
S&P 500 (SPX) Plunges, Metals And Crude Oil Prices Go Up

S&P 500 (SPX) Plunges, Metals And Crude Oil Prices Go Up

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 08.03.2022 15:41
S&P 500 indeed didn‘t reverse on Friday in earnest, and both tech and value sold off hard. Not much reason to be bullish thanks to credit markets performance either – the posture is very risk-off, and the rush to commodities goes on. With a little check yesterday on the high opening prices in crude oil and copper, but still. My favorite agrifoods picks of late, wheat and corn, are doing great, and the pressure within select base metals, is building up – such as (for understandable reasons) in nickel and aluminum. Look for more to come, especially there where supply is getting messed with (this doesn‘t concern copper to such a degree, explaining its tepid price gains). And I‘m not talking even the brightest spot, where I at the onset of 2022 announced that precious metals would be the great bullish surprise this year. Those who listened, are rocking and rolling – we‘re nowhere near the end of the profitable run! Crude oil is likely to consolidate prior steep gains, and could definitely continue spiking higher. Should it stay comfortably above $125 for months, that would lead to quite some demand destruction. Given that black gold acts as a „shadow Fed funds rate“, let‘s bring up yesterday‘s rate raising thoughts and other relevant snippets: (,,,) If TLT has a message to drive home after the latest Powell pronouncements, it‘s that the odds of a 50bp rate hike in Mar (virtual certainty less than two weeks ago, went down considerably) – it‘s almost a coin toss now, and as the FOMC time approaches, the Fed would probably grow more cautious (read dovish and not hawkish) in its assessments, no matter the commodities appreciation or supply chains status. Yes, neither of these, nor inflation is going away before the year‘s end – they are here to stay for a long time to come. Looking at the events of late, I have to dial back the stock market outlook when it comes to the degree of appreciation till 2022 is over – I wouldn‘t be surprised to see the S&P 500 to retreat slightly vs. the Jan 2022 open. Yes, not even the better 2H 2022 prospects would erase the preceding setback. Which stocks would do best then? Here are my key 4 tips – energy, materials, in general value, and smallcaps. But the true winners of the stagflationary period is of course going to be commodities and precious metals. And that‘s where the bulk of recent gains that I brought you, were concentrated in. More is to come, and it‘s gold and silver that are catching real fire here. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 didn‘t do at all well yesterday, and signs of a short-term bottom are absent. It‘s entirely possible that the brief upswing that I was looking to be selling into to start the week, has been not merely postponed. Credit Markets HYG is clearly on the defensive, and TLT reassessing rate hike prospects – yet, long-dated Treasuries still declined. There is no appetite to buy bonds, and that confirms my thesis of lower lows to be made still in Mar. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals keep doing great, and will likely continue rising no matter what the dollar does – last three days‘ experience confirms that. This is more than mere flight to safety - I‘m looking for further price gains as the upleg has been measured and orderly so far. Crude Oil Crude oil‘s opening gap had been sold into, but we haven‘t seen a reversal yesterday. The upswing can continue, and it would happen on high volatility. I don‘t think we have seen the real spike just yet. Copper For all the above reasons, copper isn‘t rising as fast as other base metals (one of the key engines of commodities appreciation). The run is respectable, and not overheated. $5.00 would remain quite a tough nut to crack – for the time being. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos haven‘t made up their mind yet, but one thing is sure – they aren‘t acting as a safe haven. Given the extent of retreat from Mar highs, it means I‘m looking for not too spectacular performance in the days ahead. Summary S&P 500 missed an opportunity to rise (even if just to open the week on a positive note), and its prospects for today aren‘t way too much brighter. It‘s that practically nothing is giving bullish signals for paper assets, and the market breadth has understandably deteriorated. The rush into precious metals, dollar and commodities remains on – these are the pockets of strength, lifting to a very modest and hidden degree Treasuries as well (these are however reassessing the hawkish Fed prospects) at a time when global growth downgrades are starting to arrive. Pretty serious figures, let me tell you. As I wrote yesterday, stocks may even undershoot prior Thursday‘s lows, but I‘m not looking for that to happen. The sentiment is very negative already, the yield curve keeps compressing, commodities are rising relentlessly, and all we got is a great inflation excuse / smoke screen. Inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, and supply chain disruptions and other geopolitical events can and do exacerbate that. Just having a look at the rising dollar when rate hike prospects are getting dialed back, tells the full risk-off story of the moment, further highlighted by the powder keg that precious metals are. And silver isn‘t yet outperforming copper, which is something I am looking for to change as we go by. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Gold Tries to Hold Above $2000 - Hard Landing Ahead?

Gold Tries to Hold Above $2000 - Hard Landing Ahead?

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 08.03.2022 16:02
  Gold has hit $2,000 but is still struggling to maintain that historical level. It has already tried 8 times - will the ninth attempt succeed? Many indications make this doubtful. Gold is attempting to break above the $2,000 milestone, and miners are trying to break above their declining resistance line. Will they manage to do so, and if so, how long will the rally last? Yesterday, gold didn’t manage to close above the $2,000 level and it’s making another attempt to rally above it in today’s pre-market trading. However, will it be successful? Given the RSI above 70 and the strength of the current resistance, it’s doubtful. In fact, nothing has changed with regard to this likelihood since yesterday, so what I wrote about it in the previous Gold & Silver Trading Alert remains up-to-date: Gold touched $2,000 in today’s pre-market trading, which is barely above its 2021 high and below its 2020 high. Crude oil is way above both analogous levels. In other words, gold underperforms crude oil to a significant extent, just like in 2003. Interestingly, back in 2003, gold topped when crude oil rallied about 40% from its short-term lows (the late-2002 low). What happened next in 2003? Gold declined, and the moment when crude oil started to visibly outperform gold was also the beginning of a big decline in gold stocks. That makes perfect sense on the fundamental level too. Gold miners’ share prices depend on their profits (just like it’s the case with any other company). Crude oil at higher levels means higher costs for the miners (the machinery has to be fueled, the equipment has to be transported, etc.). When costs (crude oil could be viewed as a proxy for them) are rising faster than revenues (gold could be viewed as a proxy for them), miners’ profits appear to be in danger; and investors don’t like this kind of danger, so they sell shares. Of course, there are many more factors that need to be taken into account, but I just wanted to emphasize one way in which the above-mentioned technical phenomenon is justified. Back in 2003, gold stocks wiped out their entire war-concern-based rally, and the biggest part of the decline took just a bit more than a month. Let’s remember that back then, gold stocks were in a very strong medium- and long-term uptrend. Right now, mining stocks remain in a medium-term downtrend, so their decline could be bigger – they could give away their war-concern-based gains and then decline much more. Mining stocks are not declining profoundly yet, but let’s keep in mind that history rhymes – it doesn’t repeat to the letter. As I emphasized previously today, back in 2003 and 2002, the tensions were building for a longer time, and it was relatively clear in advance that the U.S. attack was going to happen. This time, Russia claimed that it wouldn’t attack until the very last minute before the invasion. Consequently, the “we have to act now” is still likely to be present, and the dust hasn’t settled yet – everything appears to be unclear, and thus the markets are not returning to their previous trends. Yet. However, as history shows, that is likely to happen. Either immediately, or shortly, as crude oil is already outperforming gold. The above chart features the GDXJ ETF. As you can see, the junior miners moved to their very strong resistance provided by the declining resistance line. This resistance is further strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and the previous (late-2021) high. This means that it’s particularly strong, and any breakout here would likely be invalidated shortly. Given the clear sell signal from the RSI indicator, a turnaround here is even more likely. I marked the previous such signals to emphasize their efficiency. When the RSI was above 70, a top was in 6 out of 7 of the recent cases, and the remaining case was shortly before the final top, anyway. This resistance seems to be analogous to the $2,000 level in gold. By the way, please note that gold tried to break above $2,000 several times: twice in August 2020; twice in September 2020 (once moving above it, once moving just near this level); once in November 2020 (moving near this level); once in January 2021 (moving near this level); once in February 2022 (moving near this level). These attempts failed in each of the 7 cases mentioned above. This is the eight attempt. Will this very strong resistance break this time? Given how much crude oil has already soared, and how both markets used to react to war tensions in the case of oil-producing countries, it seems that the days of the rally are numbered. Moving back to the GDXJ ETF, please note that while gold is moving close to its all-time highs, the junior miners are not doing anything like that. In fact, they barely moved slightly above their late-2021 high. They are not even close to their 2021 high, let alone their 2020 high. Instead, junior mining stocks are just a bit above their early-2020 high, from which their prices were more than cut in half in less than a month. In other words, junior miners strongly underperform gold, which is a bearish sign. When gold finally declines – and it’s likely to, as geopolitical events tend to have only a temporary effect on prices, even if they’re substantial – junior miners will probably slide much more than gold. One of the reasons is the likely decline in the general stock market. I recently received a question about the impact the general stock market has on mining stocks, as the latter moved higher despite stocks’ decline in recent weeks. So, let’s take a look at a chart that will feature junior mining stocks, the GLD ETF, and the S&P 500 Index. Before the Ukraine crisis, the link between junior miners and the stock market was clear. Now, it's not as clear, but it’s still present. Juniors only moved to their late-2021 highs, while gold is over $100 above those highs. Juniors underperform significantly, in tune with the stock market's weakness. The gold price is still the primary driver of mining stock prices – including junior mining stocks. After all, that’s what’s either being sold by the company (that produces gold) or in the properties that the company owns and explores (junior miners). As gold prices exploded in the last couple of weeks, junior miners practically had to follow. However, this doesn’t mean that the stock market’s influence is not present nor that it’s going to be unimportant going forward. Conversely, the weak performance of the general stock market likely contributed to junior miners’ weakness relative to gold – the former didn’t rally as much as the latter. Since the weakness in the general stock market is likely to continue, and gold’s rally is likely to be reversed (again, what happened in the case of other military conflicts is in tune with history, not against it), junior miners are likely to decline much more profoundly than gold. Speaking of the general stock market, it just closed at the lowest level since mid-2021. The key thing about the above chart is that what we’ve seen this year is the biggest decline since 2020, and the size of the recent slide is comparable to what we saw as the initial wave down in 2020 – along with the subsequent correction. If these moves are analogous, the recent rebound was perfectly normal – there was one in early 2020 too. This also means that a much bigger decline is likely in the cards in the coming weeks, and that it’s already underway. This would be likely to have a very negative impact on the precious metals market, in particular on junior mining stocks (initially) and silver (a bit later). All in all, it seems that due to the technical resistance in gold and mining stocks, the sizable – but likely temporary (like other geopolitical-event-based-ones) – rally is likely to be reversed shortly. Then, as the situation in the general stock market deteriorates, junior miners would be likely to plunge in a spectacular manner. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boeing Company Stock News and Forecast: BA slips on Russian supply woes

Boeing Company Stock News and Forecast: BA slips on Russian supply woes

FXStreet News FXStreet News 08.03.2022 16:05
Boeing stock falls as Russian raw material supplies are likely to be in short supply. Boeing earlier said it was suspending buying Russian titanium. BA stocks fell over 6% on Monday as main indices fell over 3%. Boeing (BA) stock slipped on Monday, even disproportionally versus the main market. While the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell in the region of 3% to 4%, Boeing underperformed as it fell just under 6.5%. Boeing Stock News Monday's move took Boeing stock to new 52-week lows as the stock remains pressured in the current risk-off environment. The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that Boeing had suspended purchases of titanium from Russia as the company felt it had enough supply from other sources. “Our inventory and diversity of titanium sources provide sufficient supply for airplane production, and we will continue to take the right steps to ensure long-term continuity,” a Boeing spokeswoman told WSJ. Also on Monday Cowen & Co. lowered their price target for Boeing from $265 to $230. Cowen maintained their outperform rating on Boeing. Breaking Defense had last week reported that Air Force One's replacement was running up to 17 months late, according to two sources. Boeing is the supplier of Air Force One. Boeing will also likely feel headwinds from the current surge in oil prices. While not directly affected, higher oil prices will flow through to higher airfares and a likely reduction in passenger demand. This would see a knock-on but delayed demand for additional planes affecting Boeing and its main competitor, Airbus. However, Boeing does have a large military division. At the end of 2021 the Boeing Defence, Space & Security division accounted for over 33% of total Boeing revenues. The US Department of Defense is the top customer of this division. Boeing Stock Forecast Breaking the 52-week low is significant, and from the weekly chart below we can see how Boeing failed to regain its pre-pandemic levels. This should have been setting off alarm bells as stocks and indices reached all-time highs. The aerospace sector was a special case, but technically this was a bearish signal. BA stock chart, weekly The daily chart outlines the series of bearish lower lows and highs. Any rally to $185 can be used to instigate fresh bearish positions. BA stock chart, daily
Positive News From Europe Supports (BTC) Bitcoin Price - Is $40.000 Coming?

Positive News From Europe Supports (BTC) Bitcoin Price - Is $40.000 Coming?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 08.03.2022 16:05
Bitcoin price action sees bulls storming out of the gate, with BTC bouncing off a $38,073 historical pivot. BTC price set to tick $39,780 intraday in a range-trading profile. Expect to see more upside, should BTC continue its rally from positive signals out of Ukraine, and punch through the 55-day SMA. Bitcoin price action is back on the front foot today as global markets surf positive news of a ceasefire and fresh round of talks between Russia and Ukraine. The lift in positive sentiment spilled over into cryptocurrencies and saw positive prints across the board. Bitcoin was no different, with the price up 2.30% for the day at the time of writing and a possible tick of over 4% profit going into the U.S. session this evening. Bitcoin sees bulls taking over in ceasefire setback for bears Bitcoin price action is whipsawing between $45,000 to the upside and $34,000 to the downside, in a bandwidth that has been drawn since January. With global markets remaining stressed and on edge, today is set to give a sigh of relief and blow off some steam out of the pressure cooker that is Ukraine. Expect to see further decompression going into the U.S. session as this positive news gets picked up and translated into another round of bullish uplift for the cryptocurrency. BTC price is set to tick $39,780 and will try to break the high of last weekend. But bulls will immediately face another level of resistance, with the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $40,250, and the $40,000 level in the way. Add to that the monthly pivot at $41,000 – so within a $1,000 – and there are three bearish elements capable of cutting short any attempts for further upside if no additional relief catalysts are added to the current headlines. BTC/USD daily chart Over the weekend, a ceasefire was already tried but failed after just a few minutes. Should that be the case again, expect this to break the fragile trust that has been in place now since recent talks yesterday. Expect BTC price action to be pushed back to $38,073 a drop of around 4%.
Ukraine’s Defense Shines ‒ and So Does Gold

Ukraine’s Defense Shines ‒ and So Does Gold

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 08.03.2022 17:37
  Russian forces have made minimal progress against Ukraine in recent days. Unlike the invader, gold rallied very quickly and achieved its long-awaited target - $2000! Nobody expected the Russian inquisition! Nobody expected such a fierce Ukrainian defense, either. Of course, the situation is still very dramatic. Russian troops continued their offensive and – although the pace slowed down considerably – they managed to make some progress, especially in southern Ukraine, by bolstering air defense and supplies. The invaders are probably preparing for the decisive assault on Kyiv. Where Russian soldiers can’t break the defense, they bomb civilian infrastructure and attack ordinary people, including targeting evacuation corridors, to spread terror. Several Ukrainian cities are besieged and their inhabitants lack basic necessities. The humanitarian crisis intensifies. However, Russian forces made minimal ground advances over recent days, and it’s highly unlikely that Russia has successfully achieved its planned objectives to date. According to the Pentagon, nearly all of the Russian troops that were amassed on Ukraine’s border are already fighting inside the country. Meanwhile, the international legion was formed and started its fight for Ukraine. Moreover, Western countries have recently supplied Ukraine with many hi-tech military arms and equipment, including helicopters, anti-tank weapons, and anti-aircraft missiles, which could be crucial in boosting the Ukrainian defense.   Implications for Gold What does the war in Ukraine imply for the precious metals? Well, gold is shining almost as brightly as the Ukrainian defense. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal has surged above $1,980 on Monday (March 7, 2022), the highest level since August 2020. What’s more, as the next chart shows, during today’s early trading, gold has soared above $2,020 for a while, reaching almost an all-time high. In my most recent report, I wrote: “as long as the war continues, the yellow metal may shine (…). The continuation or escalation of Russia’s military actions could provide support for gold prices.” This is exactly what we’ve been observing. This is not surprising. The war has increased the safe-haven demand for gold, while investors have become more risk-averse and have continued selling equities. As you can see in the chart below, the S&P 500 Index has plunged more than 12% since its peak in early January. Some of the released funds went to the gold market. What’s more, the credit spreads have widened, while the real interest rates have declined. Both these trends are fundamentally positive for the yellow metal. Another bullish driver of gold prices is inflation. It’s already high, and the war in Ukraine will only add to the upward pressure. The oil price has jumped above $120 per barrel, almost reaching a record peak. Higher energy prices would translate into higher CPI readings in the near future. Other commodities are also surging. For example, the Food Price Index calculated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has soared above 140 in February, which is a new all-time high, as the chart below shows. Higher commodity prices could lead to social unrest, as was the case with the Arab Spring or recent protests in Kazakhstan. Higher energy prices and inflation imply slower real GDP growth and more stagflationary conditions. As a reminder, in 2008 we saw rapidly rising commodities, which probably contributed to the Great Recession. In such an environment, it’s far from clear that the Fed will be very hawkish. It will probably hike the federal funds rate in March, as expected, but it may soften its stance later amid the conflict between Ukraine and the West with Russia and elevated geopolitical risks. The more dovish Fed should also be supportive of gold prices. However, when the fighting cools off, the fear will subside, and we could see a correction in the gold market. Both sides are exhausted by the conflict and don’t want to continue it forever. The Russian side has already softened its stance a bit during the most recent round of negotiations, as it probably realized that a military breakthrough was unlikely. Hence, when the conflict ends, gold’s current tailwind could turn into a headwind. Having said that, the impact of the conflict may not be as short-lived this time. I'm referring to the relatively harsh sanctions and high energy prices that may last for some time after the war is over. . The same applies to a more hawkish stance toward Russia and European governments’ actions to become less dependent on Russian gas and oil. A lot depends on how the conflict will be resolved, and whether it brings us Cold War 2.0. However, two things are certain: the world has already changed geopolitically, and at the beginning of this new era, the fundamental outlook for gold has turned more bullish than before the war. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains - 09.03.2022

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains - 09.03.2022

John Benjamin John Benjamin 09.03.2022 08:47
USDJPY breaks higherThe Japanese yen softened after weaker-than-expected GDP in Q4. Despite choppiness in recent price action, confidence in the greenback remains high.A failed attempt at the supply zone (115.80) suggests a lack of momentum, but a swift bounce off 114.65 reveals strong enough buying interest.A bullish breakout would lead to the double top at 116.35. Its breach could end the two-month-long consolidation and trigger an extended rally towards January 2017’s highs around 118.00. 115.40 is fresh support.AUDUSD seeks supportThe Australian dollar stalls as commodity prices consolidate. The rally above 0.7310, a major supply area, has weakened selling pressure and put the pair on a bullish reversal course.The Aussie’s parabolic ascent and an overbought RSI prompted short-term buyers to take profit. As the RSI swings back into the oversold zone, the bulls may see the current fallback as an opportunity to stake in.0.7380 is a fresh resistance and 0.7250 is the immediate support. Further below 0.7170 is a critical level to keep the rebound valid.UK 100 sees limited bounceThe FTSE 100 struggles as the UK plans to ban Russian energy imports.On the daily chart, a break below the demand zone (6850) wiped out 11-months worth of gains and signaled a strong bearish bias. The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a temporary rebound, but a bearish MA cross could attract more selling interest.The liquidation is yet to end as medium-term buyers scramble for the exit. 7200 is a fresh resistance and 7450 is a major supply zone. A drop below 6800 may lead to 6500.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Has Increased By 8.7%, Ether (ETH) Has Gone Up By 7.9%, XRP Has Added 3.3%, Terra +21%

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Has Increased By 8.7%, Ether (ETH) Has Gone Up By 7.9%, XRP Has Added 3.3%, Terra +21%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 09.03.2022 08:43
The last bitcoin growth impulse confirmed the break of the downtrend: the chart confidently rebounded from the former upper limit of the downtrend trading range. However, as before in March, a consolidation above the previous highs in the area of $45K is required to confirm a break in the trend. As Ethereum dropped to a 10-day low, traders started buying put options in anticipation of the second cryptocurrency falling to $2,200. On March 14, the European Parliament will approve the final version of the bill on the regulation of cryptocurrencies without wording that could be interpreted as a potential ban on bitcoin mining. US President Biden will also sign an executive order to regulate cryptocurrencies this week. The focus may be on tracking transactions and preventing circumvention of US sanctions. The cost of bitcoin in rubles has updated its historical highs, exceeding 5 million rubles. Bitcoin was not so expensive even in April and November 2021, when its price in dollars exceeded $60,000. In general, the benchmark cryptocurrency has jumped by 8.7% over the past day, to 41,450. Ethereum has added 7.9% over the same time, while other leading altcoins from the top ten show growth from 3.3% (XRP) to 21% (Terra). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 6.9% over the day, to $1.83 trillion. The dominance index jumped to 43%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index rose 1 point to 22, remaining in "extreme fear" territory.Bitcoin was bought on the decline to $38K, and the move to $40K on Wednesday morning caused a surge in buying, probably associated with the closing of part of the short positions, quickly bringing the rate to current values.
Crypto Update: Buyers Return, Solana Avalanche focus

Crypto Update: Buyers Return, Solana Avalanche focus

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 09.03.2022 07:08
Today, Crypto markets continue to see plenty of fresh demand, taking this week’s fightback to two days. Strong buying is a good turn for holders and buyers as price has been beaten down in recent weeks due to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. For many coins, yesterday’s finish was far from confident, but that’s a memory at this point today with quite a modest double-digit percentage gains at the moment. The top 10 and 25 are all in the mix, and the indexes of those coins are a healthy +6% higher. One might have been a little worried about external factors like Bidens crypto executive order and the ongoing conflict in Europe. Biden is set to release the order this week, and traders will be watching with interest in the details and how it could change the way the U.S. treats digital assets. Today we are looking at two of the top 20. These two coins are favourites of the market but not in the top five. Solana SOLUSD – currently price is trading 8% higher back above $88. For now, buyer momentum looks firm, and we need to see price hold above 80.60 support. This is the base of our expectations on the buy-side, and a break below that level writes off the other patterns we are watching. Overall, we can see that price is in a descending triangle pattern and an ending diagonal pattern. Both of these can be seen as breakout patterns if confirmed by a new move out of them. But we have to see support hold. Avalanche AVAXUSD is one of my favourite coins just due to how much it can move. It reminds me of some of the wilder FX and index markets. AVAX has traded as much as 9.88% higher, retaking $79. AVAX, like SOL has key support to defend, but we can see a break of the downtrend with a range in play and a new uptrend continuing to set up. We want to see 71.10 remain in play as support. A break below changes the picture, but while this level remains held, we will look for further upside. 85.55 looks like the next level of resistance if reached. The post Crypto Update: Buyers Return, Solana Avalanche focus appeared first on Eightcap.
Russia-Ukraine is there any hope for the markets

Russia-Ukraine is there any hope for the markets

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 09.03.2022 11:23
The Russian rouble remains under pressure, while all the new controls on currency transactions in Russia are alienating the exchange rate at home and on global FX. The 12% commission on currency purchases explains the difference between the external and domestic exchange rates. That said, one must realise that "catching the bottom" of the ruble is hardly wise when new sanctions are imposed almost on a daily basis. The economic landslide continues with extreme speed. Across the other EM markets, there is a concern or even pessimism about the medium-term outlook, and some relative easing of the fear level is striking in the stock markets today. Commodity markets, which continued their move towards new extremes yesterday, have encountered substantial selling, which continues today. Some reduction in the excitement can be attributed to hopes of progress towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.Nevertheless, the conditions already prevailing in commodity markets are putting serious pressure on EM equities and currencies. EM populations are more vulnerable to soaring basic food and energy prices and currencies to capital outflows due to flight to safety. All of this is tightening financial conditions is undermining the economic recovery that investors had hoped for at the start of the year because of the retreat of the pandemic. While the end of last year and the beginning of this one were sentiments that growth momentum was shifting from the US to Europe and emerging markets, events in recent weeks have not only returned EM markets to the downward trend but again show that US markets are the best refuge for capital. For example, Chinese indices are losing 35% (Hang Seng) to 43% (China H-star) from their February 2021 peak. And this trend will not quickly reverse even if the military conflict in Eastern Europe ends right now because economic and reputational damage has already been done, which will take months or even years to undo.
Crude Oil may have played its game

Crude Oil may have played its game

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 09.03.2022 11:33
A barrel of Oil on the spot market briefly topped $130 for Brent and $125 for WTI, having retreated to $127 and $121, respectively, by the start of European trading. Oil received its latest boost on expectations that the US will announce an embargo on Russian energy imports. Traders took short-term profits on Biden's speech, which kept Oil from rising further. On the sellers' side was also news that the UK was unable to repeat the US move and is instead set to halt energy imports from Russia before the end of the year. Biden also noted that many European countries would not be able to stop buying Russian Oil and Gas any time soon because of their heavy reliance on them.The latest comments have somewhat dampened pressure on the Oil price, as have earlier International Energy Agency calculations on ways to reduce Europe's energy consumption from Russia by up to 80% as early as this year. Such plans often over-idealise the possibility of a coordinated effort, but their mere appearance has a stabilising effect on the market. For its part, Russia has also worked to prove its role as a reliable energy supplier, loading Crude Oil at ports in line with the schedule.Nevertheless, markets continue to face an increased risk premium, and Russian Oil struggles to find new buyers. The UAE and Saudi Arabia try to use the situation to their advantage, refusing to cooperate with the US to increase oil supplies. Iran is haggling for more favourable terms on the nuclear deal. Russia, the architect of the deal, has suddenly become an obstacle to it, demanding legal guarantees from the US that sanctions will not affect Russian-Iranian trade, thereby trying to thwart the US attempts to increase oil supply in countries where US sanctions limit production.We would venture to guess that all existing conditions are already built into the Oil quotes, and its price is now near a ceiling for the coming weeks and months. From here, we could see the establishment of a fairly broad corridor of $95-130 per barrel for Brent for the foreseeable future. This is a vast range, reflecting the outlook's persistence of extreme volatility and extreme uncertainty.
Stocks rebound slightly as hopes of a Russia-Ukraine deal increase

Stocks rebound slightly as hopes of a Russia-Ukraine deal increase

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 09.03.2022 11:54
European stock markets started the day trading higher following a mixed Asian session which saw Nikkei drop 0.3% while S&P/ASX 200 gained 1% and as indices from China plunged and finished 1.7-5.0% lower. Meanwhile, the United States announced a total ban on Russian oil, natural gas and coal with the United Kingdom announcing that it will phase out Russian oil in the coming months. In response, Putin signed a decree banning exports of certain commodities from Russia and investors await the announcement within days to determine the potential impact on markets. Furthemore, a growing number of companies have announced their withdrawal from or suspension of services in Russia with McDonald's, Starbucks and Coca-Cola being the latest to make such announcements and isolating the country economically even more. While this rebound may encourage investors and increase confidence in the market, it is essential to keep in mind that any major news related to the ongoing conflict could have wide repercussions and may shake the extremely fragile market sentiment. Crypto markets rebound as sentiment improves ahead of Biden executive orderCryptocurrencies appeared to show signs of strength in the Asian session which have continued at the start of the European trading session with Bitcoin gaining over 8% and trading around $42,000, the highest level in a week. The crypto market cap is up over 6% today and has returned to around $1.85 Trillion after several days of uncertainty which followed the surge in demand seen at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict that was sparked by significant interest from people of that region as they attempted to seek refuge from the collapsing economy and currency. As has been the case in the past, Bitcoin and Ethereum appear to be dragging the rest of the market with the majority of alt-coins also adding to their gains despite generally lagging slightly behind the majors. Furthermore, US president Biden is expected to make an announcement today regarding an executive order on cryptocurrencies that may pave the way for a broader adoption of digital assets and boost investor confidence in the relatively new asset class. While details of this announcement remain unclear, any sign of regulation or mainstream adoption could prove to be a catalyst for a major move across the crypto markets thanks to the influx of new money of both retail and institutional investors.
Ringing the Bell

Ringing the Bell

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 09.03.2022 16:03
S&P 500 once again gave up intraday gains, and credit markets confirmed the decline. Value down significantly more than tech, risk-off anywhere you look. For days without end, but the reprieve can come on seemingly little to no positive news, just when the sellers exhaust themselves and need to regroup temporarily. We‘re already seeing signs of such a respite in precious metals and commodities – be it the copper downswing, oil unable to break $130, or miners not following gold much higher yesterday. Corn and wheat also consolidated – right or wrong, the market seeks to anticipate some relief from Eastern Europe.The big picture though hasn‘t changed:(…) credit markets … posture is very risk-off, and the rush to commodities goes on. With a little check yesterday on the high opening prices in crude oil and copper, but still. My favorite agrifoods picks of late, wheat and corn, are doing great, and the pressure within select base metals, is building up – such as (for understandable reasons) in nickel and aluminum. Look for more to come, especially there where supply is getting messed with (this doesn‘t concern copper to such a degree, explaining its tepid price gains).And I‘m not talking even the brightest spot, where I at the onset of 2022 announced that precious metals would be the great bullish surprise this year. Those who listened, are rocking and rolling – we‘re nowhere near the end of the profitable run! Crude oil is likely to consolidate prior steep gains, and could definitely continue spiking higher. Should it stay comfortably above $125 for months, that would lead to quite some demand destruction. Given that black gold acts as a „shadow Fed funds rate“, ......its downswing would contribute to providing the Fed with an excuse not to hike in Mar by 50bp. After the prior run up in the price of black gold that however renders such an excuse a verbal exercise only, the Fed remains between a rock and hard place, and the inflationary fires keep raging on.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is reaching for the Feb 24 lows, and may find respite at this level. The upper knot though would need a solid close today (above 4,250) to be of short-term significance. Remember, the market remains very much headline sensitive.Credit MarketsHYG clearly remains on the defensive, but the sellers may need a pause here, if volume is any guide. Bonds are getting beaten, and the outlook remains negative to neutral for the weeks ahead. Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals keep doing great, but a pause is knocking on the door. Not a reversal, a pause. Gold and silver are indeed the go-to assets in the current situation, and miners agree wholeheartedly.Crude OilCrude oil is having trouble extending gains, and the consolidation I mentioned yesterday, approaches. I do not think however that this is the end of the run higher.CopperCopper is pausing already, and this underperformer looks very well bid above $4.60. Let the red metal build a base, and continue rising next, alongside the rest of the crowd.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos upswing equals more risk appetite? It could be so, looking at the dollar‘s chart (I‘m talking that in the summary of today‘s analysis).SummaryEvery dog has its day, and the S&P 500‘s one might be coming today or tomorrow. It‘s that the safe havens of late (precious metals, commodities and the dollar) are having trouble extending prior steep gains further. These look to be in for a brief respite that would be amplified on any possible news of deescalation. In such an environment, risk taking would flourish at expense of gold, silver and oil especially. I don‘t think so we have seen the tops – precious metals are likely to do great on the continued inflation turning into stagflation (GDP growth figures being downgraded), and commodities are set to further benefit from geopolitics (among much else).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
How You Can Minimize Trading Risk & Grow Capital During A Global Crisis

How You Can Minimize Trading Risk & Grow Capital During A Global Crisis

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 09.03.2022 22:39
To minimize trading risk and grow capital during a global crisis is somewhat hinged on the answers to speculative questions. How long will the Russia – Ukraine war last? How high is the price of oil and gas going to go? How quickly will central banks raise interest rates to counter high inflation? What assets should I put my money into? Knowing what the Best Asset Now (BAN) is, is critical for risk management and consistent growth no matter the market condition!‘BUY THE DIP’ or ‘SELL THE RALLY’? - DJI Weekly ChartAs of 3/8/22, YTD returns are: DJIA -10.20%, S&P 500 -12.49%, Nasdaq 100 -18.70%The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded as high as 36952.65 on January 5, 2022The DJIA put in a Covid 2020 Low of 18213.65 on March 23, 2020. When you double the price of this significant low, you get a price of 36427.30, which the DJIA reached on November 4, 2021. This was precisely 591 calendar days from the 2020 low. The 200% level seems to have capped the bull rally. If, in fact, this is the top and the start of a bear market, we should experience high volatility both up and down. However, the highs and lows should be lower as the market begins to trend lower. The volatility will also continue to increase as the market deflates and continues to lose capital.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! It appears this scenario may very well coincide with the fundamental current events of high inflation, central banks unable to add stimulus, having to raise their interest rates, and current/future geopolitical events.What-To-Do Before the Storm Hits“Have A Plan and Stick-To-Your-Plan”There are some basic strategies or practices that professional traders utilize to minimize trading risk and grow capital. Here are a few ideas:Bull/Bear Markets – In an upmarket, you should buy the dips. In a down market, you should do the opposite and sell the rallies. Rallies in a down 'bear' market tend to be very fast and short-lived.Diversification – Don't have your eggs in too many baskets. It is better to navigate thru a storm by focusing your resources specifically rather than generally.Leverage – Reduce leverage, position size, or know how you will respond to different percentage losses or gains. Understand what your investment objective is as well as your tolerance for risk. If you're having trouble sleeping at night, you should reduce your holdings to the place where you are comfortable.Leverage is a mathematical equation, and it does not have to be 1x, 2x, etc. It can also be 0.75x, 0.50x, etc. You get to decide what's best for you and your family. Leverage is also a double-edged sword! Be careful, especially when the markets are on edge and volatile.Where is the Institutional Money Going?The global currency market, otherwise known as Forex or FX, is the largest market in the world. According to the BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey, published on December 8, 2019, by the Bank for International Settlements, it has an average daily transactional volume of $6.6 trillion.By tracking global money flow, we can get a pretty good idea of where the smart money is going. For now, let’s see what has happened during the last 6-months.According to www.finviz.com, we notice that the US Dollar, despite its Covid stimulus spending spree, was the preferred currency. However, the Eurodollar has seen substantial outflows decreasing by -7.60%, which is entirely understandable with the Russia – Ukraine War at their doorstep.Global central banks ponder how quickly to raise interest rates in order to curb high inflation!According to TradingEconomics, the current global interest rates by major country are: United States 0.25%, Japan -0.10%, Switzerland -0.75%, Euro Region 0.00%, United Kingdom 0.50%, Canada 0.50%, and Australia 0.10%.The US Federal Reserve may have been looking to raise interest rates by as much as 50 basis points at its next policy meeting. However, given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the FED may become more cautious and consider raising interest rates by only 25 basis points on March 15-16. We need to pay close attention to this high-impact market event.What strategies can help you minimize trading risk and grow capital?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Minimizing risk in order to grow your capital must remain a primary focus for all investors and traders. Now is the time to keep your eye on the ball!I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Crude Oil (WTI) Price Changes, Another Part Of Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Incoming

Crude Oil (WTI) Price Changes, Another Part Of Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Incoming

FXStreet News FXStreet News 09.03.2022 16:19
Better sounding newsflow regarding the possibility of a diplomatic solution to the Russo-Ukraine war is weighing heavily on crude oil. Talks between the Russian and Ukrainian Foreign Ministers on Thursday will be key. WTI is currently down more than $7.50 as traders also mull a possible US/Iran nuclear deal and further reserve releases. A slightly more conciliatory tone to the rhetoric from Ukrainian and Russian officials regarding the possibility of a diplomatic solution to the war ahead of Thursday’s meeting of the two nations’ Foreign Ministers in Turkey has seen oil markets plunge. Russia said on Wednesday that “some progress” had been made with Ukraine and laid out a potential territorial compromise, while a Ukrainian official close to President Zelenskyy hinted that Russian demands for “neutrality” can be discussed. Front-month WTI futures have subsequently tanked nearly $6.50 per barrel on the session to near the $118 level, a near $12 turnaround from Tuesday’s highs near $130. Traders also said that markets were taking a more relaxed view on the US ban on Russian oil imports announced on Tuesday and that this was weighing on prices. “Theoretically, the US could even offset the outages from Russia with its own production,” said an analyst at Commerzbank. Elsewhere, some traders cited expectations for more oil reserve releases as triggering profit-taking after the head of the International Energy Agency hinted that last week’s decision by member nations to release 60M barrels could be the first of further releases. As oil traders continue to juggle numerous competing themes, choppy market conditions are likely here to stay for some time. With Iran’s chief negotiator in the nuclear talks having arrived back in Vienna on Wednesday to continue discussions, it may well be that a deal is imminent, despite recent concerns that the Russians were adding additional demands. A deal would pave the way for over 1.3M barrels in daily Iranian crude oil exports to return to global markets. In the more immediate future, focus will return to the global crude oil inventory situation with the release of weekly official US data at 1530GMT.
How Will The Next Events Around Russia-Ukraine Conflict Affect Markets?

How Will The Next Events Around Russia-Ukraine Conflict Affect Markets?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 09.03.2022 16:19
Russia's denial of wanting to overthrow Ukraine's government has boosted the market mood. Ongoing bombing, accusations of using biological weapons may come to haunt markets. The safe-haven dollar and gold have room to recover after the recent slide. All markets are saying, is give peace a chance – paraphrasing John Lennon's song, that is what is going on, with stocks and risk currencies rising while safe-haven assets are tumbling down. However, it may become worse before it becomes better. The latest bout of optimism stems from Russia's statement that it does not seek to overthrow Ukraine's government and its preference to resolve differences via discussions. The Kremlin added that it has never threatened and does not threaten NATO. These olive branches join Tuesday's news that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signaled he is willing to give up NATO membership and the upcoming meeting of the two countries foreign ministers planned for Thursday in Turkey. On the ground, a humanitarian ceasefire is in effect in several Ukrainian cities on Wednesday, and civilians are begin evacuated, so far safely. Markets have reacted positively to these developments, with S&P futures jumping by 2%, EUR/USD jumping by some 80 pips, and safe havens such as gold and the dollar suffering significant falls. Is the war nearing its end? Not so fast. Reasons to worry First, Russia continues bombing Kyiv and is likely using this day of relative calm to regroup and resupply its troops, which have suffered massive logistical failures. Several of the previous ceasefires were not respected and this may happen again. Secondly, Russia's statements are also one that the US has declared economic war on it. Such comments contradict the better vibes that have previously boosted the market mood. Russia also accuses its enemy of developing biological weapons, in what seems like an excuse to intensify attacks. Third, Ukrainian President Zelensky called on Russian troops to "surrender while you still can" and that "we will answer in full for all our killed people" – militant statements are not exclusive to one side. The war will eventually end, hopefully, sooner rather than later. However, it seems overoptimistic to circle Wednesday as the beginning of the end, and that everything improves from here. Another escalation may come shortly, souring the market mood and boosting the safe-haven gold and dollar. Moreover, with every day that passes, the damage to the global economy increases. While shortages of energy have yet to be seen – prices are rising without any stop in the flow of oil or gas – food issues may become a burden for the global economy. Russia and Ukraine produce a vast amount of wheat and barley, which are now blocked. That is already raising food prices. And while the war continues, so do new Western sanctions. The EU has approved a new list of restrictions on Russian leaders and oligarchs, and also disconnect several Belarusian banks from the SWIFT payments system. All in all, it will likely get worse before it becomes better and that means another rush to the dollar and gold.
Crypto Update: Bitcoin (BTC) Has Lost 5.6%, Ether (ETH) Has Decreased By 4.8%, Terra (LUNA) Has Lost 1% And AVAX Has Gone Down As Well

Crypto Update: Bitcoin (BTC) Has Lost 5.6%, Ether (ETH) Has Decreased By 4.8%, Terra (LUNA) Has Lost 1% And AVAX Has Gone Down As Well

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 10.03.2022 08:33
Bitcoin soared 8.8% on Wednesday, ending the day around $41.9K. Apparently, the benchmark cryptocurrency experienced clear problems with growth above $42K. On Thursday morning we see an equally strong reversal move back to $39K. As a result, Bitcoin lost 5.6% in 24hours Ethereum - 4.8%, other leading altcoins from the top ten are declining from 1% (Terra) to 7.2% (Avalanche).According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 4.5% over the day, to $1.75 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index dropped from 43.0% to 42.7%.The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index added 6 points to 28, climbing into “fear” territory.Bitcoin's growth momentum was also supported by the positive dynamics of stock indices, however, on Thursday morning, the positive pull on them remains in contrast to the sell-off of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin jumped when a statement by Janet Yellen appeared on the website of the US Department of the Treasury, which does not contain strict measures to control the field of cryptocurrencies. The statement was posted, probably prematurely, and then quickly removed from the site.Later on Wednesday, US President Joe Biden signed the first executive order to regulate cryptocurrencies in the country. The document contained only the most general provisions, such as consumer protection, financial stability, technology development and the illegal use of cryptocurrencies. More specific measures in the field of control over the digital asset market will be developed by individual federal departments. In our opinion, the States are making it clear that they will not allow cryptocurrencies to become a shadow business and be used to circumvent sanctions, taxes, money laundering and similar things. Such control is more difficult to implement than with centrally issued fiat money.    
EURUSD Rallies, GBPUSD Moves Up A Little, USOIL Goes Back To "Normal" (?) Levels

EURUSD Rallies, GBPUSD Moves Up A Little, USOIL Goes Back To "Normal" (?) Levels

Jing Ren Jing Ren 10.03.2022 08:43
EURUSD bounces back The euro rallies on news that the EU may issue a joint bond to fund energy and defense. The pair found bids near May 2020’s lows (1.0810). An oversold RSI on the daily chart prompted sellers to take profit, easing the downward pressure. A rally above the immediate resistance at 1.0940 and a bullish MA cross may improve sentiment in the short term. However, buyers will need to clear the support-turned-resistance at 1.1160 before they could hope for a meaningful rebound. 1.0910 is the support in case of a pullback. GBPUSD inches higher The sterling claws back losses as risk appetite makes a timid return across the board. Following a three-month-long rebound on the daily chart, a lack of support at 1.3200 and a bearish MA cross shows strong selling pressure. A bounce-back above 1.3200 may only offer temporary relief as sellers potentially look to fade the rebound. 1.3350 is a key hurdle that sits along the 20-day moving average. 1.3080 is fresh support and its breach could trigger a new round of sell-off below the next daily support at 1.2880. USOIL breaks support WTI crude tumbled after the UAE said consider boosting production. The parabolic climb came to a halt at 129.00 and pushed the RSI into an extremely overbought condition on the daily chart. A bearish RSI divergence suggested a loss of momentum and foreshadowed a correction as traders would be wary of chasing the rally. A fall below 115.00 led buyers to bail out, triggering a wave of liquidation. 105.00 is the next support and a breakout could bring the price back to 95.00 near the 30-day moving average.
Crude Oil (BRENT) Price Plunges As There's A Chance Of Support

Crude Oil (BRENT) Price Plunges As There's A Chance Of Support

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 10.03.2022 09:54
Brent crude experienced its biggest intraday decline yesterday, losing more than $17 on the day to $110, with the range of movements on the spot market exceeding $26.The momentum of the decline was triggered by Blinken's (US Secretary of State) reports that the UAE was ready to ramp up its production, replacing Oil from Russia and stabilising the market. UAE officials soon said they remained committed to the current agreements. But this did not help Oil, which stabilised near levels a week ago. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have significant spare capacity to restore their production to pre-demand levels and even increase their global market share. At the same time, most OPEC representatives are not fully committed to their quotas. Iran and Venezuela have more options. Both countries are trying to use the situation to ease US sanctions pressure. Iran produces 2.3 million barrels per day, about half of pre-sanctions levels. Venezuela's production is around 0.8m BPD versus 3.1m BPD before the 2019 sanctions. Both countries can get 0.4m b/d back on the market quickly, but it will take a significant investment in the industry and a long time to grow after that. Caracas is already curtseying towards the US by releasing two prisoners. The US is lifting some sanctions on some Iranian politicians even before the deal is struck. These are signs of progress towards easing sanctions and a clear signal to Russia that the world is not so dependent on its energy. These are all signs favouring our idea that the peak of fear, and therefore oil prices, is over. Furthermore, Russia has not yet even gone so far as to threaten to halt exports as OPEC did in 1972. That said, military tensions and further restrictions on Russian oil and gas imports could trigger growth impulses, some of which could be strong. However, the oil price situation looks depleted. We are set to see either a consolidation around these levels in a pessimistic war scenario, or a correction to around $90 on progress in the peace talks and the start of a move to ease sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela.