abm

USDCHF tests support

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Tests Critical Support - 1

The US dollar edged lower as traders ditched its safe-haven appeal.

The pair met strong support at 0.9260 over the 30-day moving average. A break above the immediate resistance at 0.9340 prompted short-term sellers to cover their positions, opening the door for potential bullish continuation.

A break above 0.9370 could bring the greenback back to the 12-month high at 0.9470. 0.9260 is major support in case of hesitation and its breach could invalidate the current rebound.

XAUUSD struggles for support

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Tests Critical Support - 2

Gold struggles as risk appetite returns amid ceasefire talks. A fall below 1940 forced those hoping for a swift rebound to bail out.

On the daily chart, gold’s struggle to stay above the 30-day moving average suggests a lack of buying power. Sentiment grows cautious as the metal tentatively breaks the psychological level of 1900.

A drop below 1880 could make bullion vulnerable to a broader sell-off to 1850. An oversold RSI attracted some bargain h

3M Stock (MMM), ABM Industries Incorporated (ABM) And Stanley Black And Decker, Inc. (SWK) Are In Focus In Monthly Top 3 Dividend Kings

3M Stock (MMM), ABM Industries Incorporated (ABM) And Stanley Black And Decker, Inc. (SWK) Are In Focus In Monthly Top 3 Dividend Kings

Sure Dividend Sure Dividend 24.02.2022 07:23
The Top 3 Dividend Kings Now Investors looking for the best place to put their hard-earned capital would do well to consider those companies that have the longest dividend increase streaks. There are plenty of lists and groups to categorize companies with dividend increase streaks, but the best of the best in terms of dividend longevity is certainly the Dividend Kings. This is a group of just 40 stocks that have all increased their dividends for at least 50 consecutive years, making them truly in a class of their own on that measure. These companies have stood the test of time in terms of economic conditions and competitive threats to produce reliable earnings growth. Importantly, that earnings growth is shared with shareholders via rising dividends over time. In this article, we’ll take a look at three Dividend Kings we like today for their dividends and long-term total return potential. Our first stock is ABM Industries, a company that provides integrated facility solutions primarily in the US, but it operates internationally as well. The company operates a number of segments, and through those it provides janitorial, facilities engineering, parking, custodial, landscaping, vehicle maintenance, and mechanical and electrical services. ABM was founded in 1985, employs 124,000 people globally, generates $7.5 billion in annual revenue, and trades with a market cap of $2.9 billion. ABM’s dividend streak stands at 54 years, but the combination of strong earnings growth and relatively smaller dividend increases has produced a payout ratio of just 23% for this year. That gives ABM exceptional dividend safety, particularly since it’s actually fairly recession resistant. ABM operates mostly essential services, so recessions have some impact on earnings, but for instance, the 2020 recession actually saw higher earnings year-over-year. The current yield is 1.8%, about 0.5% better than that of the S&P 500. We expect 5% earnings-per-share growth in the coming years, which we see as driven mostly by revenue growth, with the small potential for margin gains. ABM doesn’t buy back stock in any sort of meaningful quantity. The stock trades for just 12.5 times this year’s earnings estimates, which is nearly the lowest valuation the stock has had at any point in the past decade. It is also well under our fair value estimate of 17.5 times earnings. That could provide a nearly-7% tailwind to total returns in the coming years should it revert to that valuation. That puts total return potential at a very impressive 13.5% for ABM, which is why we rate it a buy. 3M Company (MMM) 3M is an engineering company that operates globally, providing consumers and businesses with an enormous variety of thousands of largely disposable products. 3M offers abrasives, autobody repair solutions, hygiene products, masks, packaging materials, respiratory, hearing, eye and fall protection, and much more. The company was founded in 1902, employs 95,000 people worldwide, generates $37 billion in annual revenue, and trades for a market cap of $84 billion. 3M’s dividend streak is world-beating at 63 years, putting it in rare company even among the Dividend Kings. The company’s payout ratio has climbed in recent years, but still remains below 60%. Given 3M’s recession resistance and reliable earnings, that is plenty safe in our view. The current yield of just over 4% is exemplary as well, more than tripling that of the S&P 500. Combined with the safety of the dividend, 3M is truly an outstanding income stock. We see 5% earnings growth in the years to come, which we see as attributable to higher revenue, roughly flat margins, and a small tailwind from share repurchases. The stock trades for 14.4 times this year’s earnings, which is well below our fair value estimate of 19 times earnings, which could provide a total return tailwind of almost 6% annually. In concert with the yield and earnings growth, that could see 3M producing 13.8% total annual returns in the coming years. Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) Our final stock is Stanley Black & Decker, a company that designs, manufactures and sells a wide variety of products in the power tools, storage, and security businesses worldwide. The company’s brands include its namesake Stanley and BLACK + DECKER marques, as well as a wide variety of others. It offers products such as power tools, pneumatic tools, fasteners, lawn and garden products, commercial and residential security systems, and more. Stanley Black & Decker was founded in 1843, but has undergone major transformations since then through mergers and acquisitions. Today, it employs 60,000 people, generates $19.5 billion in annual revenue, and trades for a market cap of $26 billion. The dividend streak stands at 54 years, and terrific earnings growth in recent years has put the payout ratio at just 26%. Like the others on this list, the dividend is exceptionally safe and provides a very long runway for dividend increases in the years to come. The current yield is 2%, so Stanley Black & Decker remains a solid income stock when compared to the S&P 500’s yield of 1.3%. In addition, we see 8% earnings growth in the years to come, which will mostly be driven by revenue increases. The company has proven its ability over time to produce strong organic sales growth, in addition to its periodic acquisitions. We also expect a small measure of share repurchases to help boost earnings on a per-share basis. We see fair value at 16.5 times earnings, but shares trade today at just 13 times this year’s earnings. That means we could see a nearly-5% annualized return from the valuation alone. Combined with 8% earnings-per-share growth and the 2% yield, we see total returns at a very robust 14.8% in the years ahead. Final Thoughts We see the Dividend Kings as one of the best places to start a search for one’s next dividend stock purchase. The group has exceptional dividend reliability and longevity, but not all are created equal. The three we’ve highlighted here – ABM, 3M, and Stanley Black & Decker – all offer very low valuations, good yields, and long growth runways. Because of these characteristics, we see total return potential well into the double-digits for all three, and rate all of them a buy.
It Begins

It Begins

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 24.02.2022 16:00
S&P 500 reprieve that wasn‘t – the buyers didn‘t arrive, and the overnight military action sparking serious asset moves, shows that buying the dip would have been a bad idea. And it still is. Risk-on assets are likely to suffer, and I‘m not looking for a sharp, V-shaped rebound. The partial retracement seen in cryptos wouldn‘t translate to much upside in paper assets – it will likely be sold into as the bottom would take time to form. The safe haven premium seen in precious metals, crude oil and other real assets would ebb and flow, but a higher base has been established. The world has changed overnight, and recognition thereof is still pending.I think it‘s clear why I had been derisking as much as possible, wary of volatility both ways in paper assets, and betting instead on a mix of real assets. This has been hugely paying off to subscribers and readers likewise favoring gold and crude oil with some copper added for good measure.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis isn‘t how an S&P 500 bottom looks like – downswing continues with more volatility ahead.Credit MarketsHYG is going down again, and credit markets are turning risk-off – look for Treasuries to do relatively better next, with little impact upon stocks.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals fireworks continue, and the upswing got a poweful ally. Whatever retracement seen next, would be marginal in light of the developments.Crude OilCrude oil upswing can be counted on to continue, and oil stocks would remain among the best performing S&P 500 pockets. Black gold is though notorious for its wild volatility, and the coming days won‘t be an exception.CopperCopper upswing would take time to develop, especially now – but the breakout in base metals is on, the inflationary messaging is still there and thriving.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos aren‘t in a rally mode, but are attempting to put in a low. I don‘t think it would hold, the dust hasn‘t settled yet.SummaryS&P 500 is plunging, and attempting to base, but more selling would inevitably hit. The overnight dust hasn‘t settled yet, but the panic lows would not happen today. Even if it weren‘t for geopolitics, stocks were in rough waters for weeks already, in a serious, yields and liquidity driven correction, with a slowing real economy on top. For all the short-term focus, the buying opportunity would materialize only once the Fed turns – by autumn 2022. The best places to be in right now, are those presented below – precious metals and commodities – as inflation fires continue to rage on.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Stock News and Forecast: Worries over Ukraine-Russia war dim index prospects

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Stock News and Forecast: Worries over Ukraine-Russia war dim index prospects

FXStreet News FXStreet News 28.02.2022 16:02
NASDAQ 100 is set to open sharply lower on Monday. Russia placing nuclear forces on high alert spooked markets. European gas prices continue to surge as stagflation beckons. Global financial markets remain on edge this morning as the Russia-Ukraine conflict looks to be in danger of spilling into a global threat. Over the weekend Russia placed its nuclear deterrent forces on high alert, while Germany pledged increased defense spending. Now further developments include Russia talking of placing nuclear missiles in Belarus and an apparent escalation of the rhetoric between global superpowers. Western governments have gone for tougher sanctions than many observers anticipated with the Russian Central Bank reserves being targetted as well as the global banking payment system SWIFT being closed to Russian banks. Russian ally Belarus held a referendum this morning that ditched its non-nuclear stance, paving the way for Russian nuclear missiles to be deployed there. NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Stock News All this has naturally seen risk assets collapse. European equity markets fell sharply this morning. At one stage the German Dax was down nearly 3% but has staged a slight recovery to lose 2.4% currently. However the European benchmark, the Eurostoxx 50, is down over 3.5% at the time of writing. Yields continue to fall as money flows into safe-haven assets. Gold and the dollar have naturally profited. The odds on rate hikes from the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve have diminished as the threat of recession grows. Europe has the most to lose due to its dependence on Russian gas supplies. European natural gas futures (TTF) rose over 50% on Friday and have followed that up with a 12% gain on Monday. There is likely more to come here. NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Stock Forecast We do have a bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI has not made matching new lows despite the NASDAQ 100 doing so. Usually, this is significant, but the RSI does remain in a strong downtrend in line with the NASDAQ. Thursday and Friday's rally was impressive, but even that failed to break the 9 and 21-day moving averages. Demonstrating this downtrend is powerful. The obvious target is a break of 4,300 and a test of the significant lows from March 2021 at $299.51. Nasdaq (QQQ) chart, daily For short-term traders, opening below $348 indicates we are on a bearish track and preparing for further declines. Last support at $338 could see a sharp decline to $328 based on the volume gap. Nasdaq (QQQ) chart, 15-minute
Told You, Risk On

Told You, Risk On

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 01.03.2022 15:45
S&P 500 erased opening downside, not unexpectedly. Markets say we‘ve turned the corner, and while the medium-term correction isn‘t over, we‘re going higher for now. The tired performance in credit markets suggests that the pace of the upswing would indeed likely slow, but the dips are being bought – even the 4,300 overnight level held unchallenged.VIX is slowly calming down, and it wouldn‘t be a one-way ride. I hate to say it, but we‘re trading closer to the more complacent end of the volatility spectrum – that‘s though in line with my assumption of toned down price appreciation expectations that I discussed on Sunday and yesterday:(…) While we made local lows on Thursday after all, the upside momentum is likely to slow down next – this week would bring a consolidation within a very headline sensitive environment. It‘s looking good for the bulls at the moment – till the dynamic of events beyond markets changes.Inflation isn‘t wavering, and I‘m not looking for its meaningful deceleration given the events since Thursday, no. Friday is likely to mark a buying opportunity beyond oil and copper – these longs have very good prospects. Another part of the S&P 500 upswing explanation were the still fine fresh orders data – while the real economy has noticeably decelerated (and Q1 GDP growth would be underwhelming), solid figures would return in the latter quarters of 2022. That‘s also behind the gold downswing on Friday, which hadn‘t been confirmed by the miners – the very bright future ahead for precious metals is undisputable. And the same goes for crude oil as oil stocks foretell – the fresh long crude trade together with long S&P 500 one, are both solidly in the black already.Precious metals have found a floor, and aren‘t selling off either. In fact, they are looking at a great week ahead, and the same goes for crude oil followed to a lesser degree by copper. Weekend developments on the financial front triggered a rush into cryptos, and the bullish prospects I presented yesterday, are coming to fruition.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookDaily S&P 500 consolidation as the bulls did shake off the opening setback rather easily – and the same goes for the late session trip approaching 4,310s. Expecting more volatility of the current flavor, and higher prices then.Credit MarketsHYG managed to close above Friday‘s values, and the overall bond market strength bodes well for risk appetite ahead. Let‘s consolidate first, and march higher later.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are consolidating the high ground gained, miners aren‘t yielding, and silver weakness yesterday actually bodes well for the very short term. Launching pad before the next upleg.Crude OilCrude oil bears have a hard time from keeping black gold below $100. The table is clearly set for further gains – the chart can be hardly more bullish.CopperCopper is a laggard, but will still participate in the upswing. Its current underperformance as highlighten by yesterday‘s downswing, is a bit too odd, i.e. bound to be reversed.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto bulls were indeed the stronger party, and similarly to gold, it‘s hard to imagine a deep dive coming to frution. I‘m looking for the safety trade to be be ebbing and flowing, now with some crypto participation sprinkled on top.SummaryS&P 500 turnaround goes on, and we‘re undergoing a consolidation that‘s as calm as can be given the recent volatility. Credit markets and the dollar though continue favoring the paper asset bulls now, but their gains would pale in comparison with select commodities such as oil and gold‘s newfound floor. Even agrifoods look to be sold down a bit too hard, and I‘m not looking for them to be languishing next as much as they have been over the last two trading days. Cryptos upswing highlights the present global uncertainties faced – as I have written on Thursday that the world has changed, the same applies for weekend banking events being reflected in the markets yesterday.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Recovers Slowly

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Recovers Slowly

Jing Ren Jing Ren 02.03.2022 09:06
XAUUSD grinds rising trendline Gold recovered after the first round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia ended without a resolution. The precious metal found support over 1885. The rising trendline from early February indicates that the general direction is still up despite a choppy path. The previous peak at 1974 is now a fresh resistance and its breach could send the price to the psychological level of 2000. The downside risk is a fall below the said support. Then 1852, near the 30-day moving average, would be the bulls’ second line of defense. AUDUSD attempts reversal The Australian dollar steadied after the RBA warned that energy prices could flare up inflation. A break above the previous high (0.7285) shows buyers’ strong commitment despite sharp liquidation. Sentiment swiftly recovered and may attract more buying interest. An overbought RSI may temporarily limit the upside. And the bulls could be waiting for a pullback to accumulate. 0.7220 is the closest support. A bullish close above the January peak at 0.7310 could initiate a reversal in the medium-term and extend gains towards 0.7400. CADJPY bounces back The Canadian dollar clawed back losses after the Q4 GDP beat expectations. A jump above 90.70 has prompted sellers to cover their bets, opening the door for a potential reversal. 91.10 is the next resistance and its breach could propel the loonie to this year’s high at 92.00. On the downside, the psychological level of 90.00 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. Otherwise, a drop to 89.30 would suggest that sentiment remains fragile. In turn, this would place the pair under pressure once again.
Speaking Of Rallying Chinese Stocks, Quite Unchanged Bitcoin Price, BoE, Fed And Central Bank Of Turkey Interest Rates Decisions

Getting Rid Of Russian Commodities Affects And Will Affect Markets

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 02.03.2022 10:04
Brent crude prices have jumped 13% since the start of the week, trading above $110 a barrel at the time of writing. These are the highest levels since July 2014. Meanwhile, the ruble continues to retreat against the dollar and euro.  USDRUB is now trading at 106.40 (+5.5%) on the Moscow Exchange, and EURRUB is above 118 (+5%). In both cases, rates are approaching the highs set at the start of trading on Monday. As would be expected, the announced support measures from the Central Bank are softening the fall but not reversing it. The one-way movement in oil prices is since buyers in Europe are increasingly refusing to buy Russian oil, trying to find a replacement for it.  This shift in priorities is visible in the sharp widening of the spread between Urals and Brent. Historically, and without various restrictions, the spread between these grades is $2-3 in favour of the lighter Brent. Now it is more than $17 as buyers are not chartering new shipments. Canada is refusing to buy Russian oil, and the UK (which is much more dependent on energy imports) is considering options for sanctions against the industry.  The European Parliament has passed a resolution calling for EU oil and gas imports restrictions. Thus, Russia has failed to fully benefit from higher prices, losing both in sales volumes and facing an actual fall in selling prices.  The potential for already announced measures destabilises the market, setting Russia up to start using energy or agricultural products as a retaliatory measure. While it is hard to imagine the world without Russian energy in the coming months - it will be as chaotic as the oil crisis in 1973, with the oil price soaring fourfold in six months of the embargo. We may see a smaller price jump but with much wider economic consequences. It is ironic that Europe and Western countries, in general, were helped by the Soviet Union. Now consumers are left to rely on the Middle East and its reserves.  Yesterday, Biden announced an agreed sale of 60m barrels to 30 countries. Still, the market reaction to these announcements indicates that the market was expecting more, and the announced volumes are not enough. It is hard to say the theoretical limit to oil's rise. The Brent price could surpass the 2012 highs of $128 in a matter of days or aim for a historical record of $147.
Real Assets, Bonds and New Profits

Real Assets, Bonds and New Profits

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 02.03.2022 15:49
S&P 500 broke through 4,350s in what appears a back and forth consolidation, for now. Credit markets aren‘t leading to the downside – HYG merely corrected within the risk-on sentiment. Stocks and bonds are starting to live with the new realities, and aren‘t undergoing tectonic shifts either way no matter what‘s happening in the real world. Expect to see some chop not of the most volatile flavor next, and for the bulls to step in in the near future.What‘s most interesting about bonds now, is the relenting pressure on the Fed to raise rates – the 2-year yield is moving down noticeably, and that means much practical progress on fighting inflation can‘t be expected. Not that there was much to start with, but the expectations of the hawkish Fed talk turning into action, are being dialed back. The current geopolitical events provide a scene to which attention is fixated while inflation fires keep raging on with renewed vigor (beyond energies) – just as I was calling for a little deceleration in CPI towards the year end bringing it to probably 5-6%, this figure is starting to look too optimistic on the price stability front.Predictable consequence are strong appreciation days across the board in commodities and precious metals – let‘s enjoy the sizable open profits especially in oil and copper. I told you weeks ago that real assets are where to look for in portfolio gains – and even the modest S&P 500 long profits taken off the table yesterday, are taking my portfolio performance chart to fresh highs. I hope you‘ve been enjoying my calls, and are secure in the turmoil around. Way more profits are on the way, and I am not even discussing the lastest agrifoods calls concerning wheat and corn, for all the right reasons (just check out the key exporters overview)…Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis time, the S&P 500 bulls didn‘t shake off the selling pressure – the broad retreat though smacks of temporary setback. As in that the direction to the downside hasn‘t been decided yet – I‘m looking for the buyers to dip their toes here.Credit MarketsHYG downswing didn‘t attract too many sellers, and was partially bought, which means that the pendulum is ready to shift (have a go at shifting) the other way now.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are doing just great, and can be counted on to extend gains. Remember about the rate raising reappreciation that I talked in the long opening part of today‘s analysis – at central banks, that‘s where to look financially.Crude OilCrude oil bears have been taken to the woodshed, except that not at all discreetly. Let‘s keep riding this bull that had brought great profits already, for some more – as I have learned, I was a lone voice calling for more upside before last week‘s events.CopperCopper is a laggard, but still taking part in the upswing. The prior underperformance which I took issue with yesterday, was indeed a bit too odd.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto bulls are consolidating well reasoned and deserved gains, and the circumstances don‘t favor a steep downswing really. The current tight range is likely to be resolved to the upside in due course.SummaryS&P 500 turnaround is not a rickety-free ride, but goes on at its own shaky pace. Stocks are likely to consolidate today as bonds turn a little more in the risk-on side, which reflects last but not least the looming reassessment of hawkish Fed policies. That‘s where the puck is (and will increasingly be even more so as Wayne Gretzky would say) financially, and I discussed that at length in the opening part of today‘s analysis – have a good look. Precious metals and commodities already know they won‘t be crushed by any new Paul Volcker. Enjoy the profitable rides presented !Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Stocks Want to Go Higher Despite Ukraine News

Stocks Want to Go Higher Despite Ukraine News

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.03.2022 15:34
The S&P 500 index topped the 4,400 level yesterday despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict news. Will the uptrend continue?The broad stock market index gained 1.86% on Wednesday following its Tuesday’s decline of 1.6%, as it fluctuated following last week’s rebound from the new medium-term low of 4,114.65. It was 704 points or 14.6% below the January 4 record high of 4,818.62. So the sentiment improved recently, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict news. Yesterday the index went slightly above the 4,400 level and it was the highest since Feb. 17.For now, it looks like an upward correction. However, it may also be a more meaningful reversal following a deep 15% correction from the early January record high. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.6% higher following better-than-expected Unemployment Claims number release. However, we may see some more volatility.The nearest important resistance level remains at 4,400 and the next resistance level is at 4,450-4,500. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,300-4,350, among others. The S&P 500 index broke above the downward trend line recently, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):Futures Contract Trades Along the Local HighsLet’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. On Thursday it sold off after breaking below the 4,200 level. And since Friday it was trading along the 4,300 mark. This morning it is trading along the local highs.We are maintaining our profitable long position, as we are still expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com):ConclusionThe S&P 500 index will likely open 0.6% higher this morning. We may see more short-term fluctuations and obviously, the markets will continue to react to the Russia-Ukraine conflict news.Here’s the breakdown:The S&P 500 index bounced from the new low on Thursday after falling almost 15% from the early January record high.We are maintaining our profitable long position.We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels.Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Gold Miners – Biggest Losers? That’s What Oil Says

Gold Miners – Biggest Losers? That’s What Oil Says

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.03.2022 15:44
After the war-driven gold rally, oil is starting to outperform. History between these two has already shown that someone may suffer. Many suggest: gold miners.The precious metals corrected some of their gains yesterday, but overall, not much changed in them. However, quite a lot happened in crude oil, and in today’s analysis we’ll focus on what it implies for the precious metals market and, in particular – for mining stocks.As you may have noticed, crude oil shot up recently in a spectacular manner. This seems normal, as it’s a market with rather inflexible supply and demand, so disruptions in supply or threats thereof can impact the price in a substantial way. With Russia as one of the biggest crude oil producers, its invasion of Ukraine, and a number of sanctions imposed on the attacking country (some of them involving oil directly), it’s natural that crude oil reacts in a certain manner. The concern-based rally in gold is also understandable.However, the relationship between wars, concerns, and prices of assets is not as straightforward as “there’s a war, so gold and crude oil will go up.” In order to learn more about this relationship, let’s examine the most similar situation in recent history to the current one, when oil supplies were at stake.The war that I’m mentioning is the one between Iraq and the U.S. that started almost 20 years ago. Let’s see what happened in gold, oil, and gold stocks at that time.The most interesting thing is that when the war officially started, the above-mentioned markets were already after a decline. However, that’s not that odd, when one considers the fact that back then, the tensions were building for a long time, and it was relatively clear in advance that the U.S. attack was going to happen. This time, Russia claimed that it wouldn’t attack until the very last minute before the invasion.The point here, however, is that the markets rallied while the uncertainty and concerns were building up, and then declined when the situation was known and “stable.” I don’t mean that “war” was seen as stable, but rather that the outcome and how it affected the markets was rather obvious.The other point is the specific way in which all three markets reacted to the war and the timing thereof.Gold stocks rallied initially, but then were not that eager to follow gold higher, but that’s something that’s universal in the final stages of most rallies in the precious metals market. What’s most interesting here is that there was a time when crude oil rallied substantially, while gold was already declining.Let me emphasize that once again: gold topped first, and then it underperformed while crude oil continued to soar substantially.Fast forward to the current situation. What has happened recently?Gold moved above $1,970 (crude oil peaked at $100.54 at that time), and then it declined heavily. It’s now trying to move back to this intraday high, but it was not able to do so. At the moment of writing these words, gold is trading at about $1,930, while crude oil is trading at about $114.In other words, while gold declined by $30, crude oil rallied by about $14. That’s a repeat of what we saw in 2003!What happened next in 2003? Gold declined, and the moment when crude oil started to visibly outperform gold was also the beginning of a big decline in gold stocks.That makes perfect sense on the fundamental level too. Gold miners’ share prices depend on their profits (just like it’s the case with any other company). Crude oil at higher levels means higher costs for the miners (the machinery has to be fueled, the equipment has to be transported, etc.). When costs (crude oil could be viewed as a proxy for them) are rising faster than revenues (gold could be viewed as a proxy for them), miners’ profits appear to be in danger; and investors don’t like this kind of danger, so they sell shares. Of course, there are many more factors that need to be taken into account, but I just wanted to emphasize one way in which the above-mentioned technical phenomenon is justified. The above doesn’t apply to silver as it’s a commodity, but it does apply to silver stocks.Back in 2004, gold stocks wiped out their entire war-concern-based rally, and the biggest part of the decline took just a bit more than a month. Let’s remember that back then, gold stocks were in a very strong medium- and long-term uptrend. Right now, mining stocks remain in a medium-term downtrend, so their decline could be bigger – they could give away their war-concern-based gains and then decline much more.Mining stocks are not declining profoundly yet, but let’s keep in mind that history rhymes – it doesn’t repeat to the letter. As I emphasized previously today, back in 2003 and 2002, the tensions were building for a longer time and it was relatively clear in advance that the U.S. attack was going to happen. This time, Russia claimed that it wouldn’t attack until the very last minute before the invasion. Consequently, the “we have to act now” is still likely to be present, and the dust hasn’t settled yet – everything appears to be unclear, and thus the markets are not returning to their previous trends. Yet.However, as history shows, that is likely to happen. Either immediately, or shortly, as crude oil is already outperforming gold.Investing and trading are difficult. If it was easy, most people would be making money – and they’re not. Right now, it’s most difficult to ignore the urge to “run for cover” if you physically don’t have to. The markets move on “buy the rumor and sell the fact.” This repeats over and over again in many (all?) markets, and we have direct analogies to similar situations in gold itself. Junior miners are likely to decline the most, also based on the massive declines that are likely to take place (in fact, they have already started) in the stock markets.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Surging Commodities

Surging Commodities

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 03.03.2022 15:55
S&P 500 returned above 4,350s as credit markets indeed weren‘t leading to the downside. Consolidation now followed by more upside, that‘s the most likely scenario next. Yesterday‘s risk-on turn was reflected also in value rising more than tech. Anyway, the Nasdaq upswing is a good omen for the bulls in light of the TLT downswing – Treasuries are bucking the Powell newfound rate raising hesitation – inflation ambiguity is back. The yield curve is still compressing, and the pressure on the Fed to act, goes on – looking at where real asset prices are now, it had been indeed unreasonable to expect inflation to slow down meaningfully. Told you so – as I have written yesterday:(…) What‘s most interesting about bonds now, is the relenting pressure on the Fed to raise rates – the 2-year yield is moving down noticeably, and that means much practical progress on fighting inflation can‘t be expected. Not that there was much to start with, but the expectations of the hawkish Fed talk turning into action, are being dialed back. The current geopolitical events provide a scene to which attention is fixated while inflation fires keep raging on with renewed vigor (beyond energies) – just as I was calling for a little deceleration in CPI towards the year end bringing it to probably 5-6%, this figure is starting to look too optimistic on the price stability front.Predictable consequence are strong appreciation days across the board in commodities and precious metals. – let‘s enjoy the sizable open profits especially in oil and copper. I told you weeks ago that real assets are where to look for in portfolio gains – and even the modest S&P 500 long profits taken off the table yesterday, are taking my portfolio performance chart to fresh highs. Crude oil keeps rising as if there‘s no tomorrow, copper is joining in, agrifoods are on fire – and precious metals continue being very well bid. Cryptos aren‘t selling off either. Anyway, this is the time of real assets...Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls are back, and I‘m looking for consolidation around these levels. The very short-term direction isn‘t totally clear, but appears favoring the bulls unless corporate junk bonds crater. Not too likely.Credit MarketsHYG performance shows rising risk appetite, but the waning volume is a sign of caution for today. Unless LQD and TLT rise as well, HYG looks short-term stretched, therefore I‘m looking for consolidation today.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are doing great, and they merely corrected yesterday – both gold and silver can be counted on to extend gains if you look at the miners‘ message. As the prospects of vigorous Fed action gets dialed back, they stand to benefit even more.Crude OilCrude oil surge is both justified and unprecedented – and oil stocks aren‘t weakening. It looks like we would consolidate in the volatile range around $110 next.CopperCopper is joining in the upswing increasingly more, and the buyer‘s return before the close looks sufficient to maintain upside momentum that had been questioned earlier in the day. The break higher out of the long consolidation, is approaching.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto buyers are consolidating well deserved gains, and the bullish flag is being formed. The sellers are nowhere to be seen at the moment – I‘m still looking for the current tight range to be resolved to the upside next.SummaryS&P 500 has reached a short-term resistance, which would be overcome only should bonds give their blessing. It‘s likely these would confirm the risk-on turn, but HYG looks a bit too extended – its consolidation of high ground gained, could slow the stock bulls somewhat. The risk appetite and „rush to safety“ in commodities and precious metals goes on, more or less squeezing select assets such as crude oil. The CRB Index upswing is though of the orderly and broad advance flavor, and does reflect the prospects of inflation remaining elevated for longer than foreseen by the mainstream.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
S&P 500 At Tipping Point To Start  A Bear Market And What You Need To See

S&P 500 At Tipping Point To Start A Bear Market And What You Need To See

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 03.03.2022 21:38
Is a bear market on the way? My research suggests the downward sloping trend line (LIGHT ORANGE in the Daily/Weekly SPY chart below) may continue to act as solid resistance – possibly prompting a further breakdown in the markets for US major indexes.As we've seen recently, news and other unexpected events prompt very large price volatility events in the US major indexes. For example, the VIX recently rose above 30 again, which shows volatility levels are currently 3x higher than normal levels.Increased Volatility & The Start Of An Excess Phase Peak Should Be A Clear WarningThis increased volatility in the markets, coupled with the increased fear of the US Fed and the global unknowns (Ukraine, China, Debt Levels, and others), may be just enough pressure to crush any upside price trends over the next few months. Technically, my research suggests the $445 to $450 level is critical resistance. The SPY must climb above these levels to have any chance of moving higher.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Unless the US markets find some new support and attempt to rally back towards recent highs, an “Excess Phase Peak” pattern will likely continue to unfold throughout 2022. This unique price pattern appears to have already reached a Phase 2 or Phase 3 setup. Please take a look at this Weekly GE example of an Excess Phase Peak pattern and how it transitions through Phase 1 through Phase 4 before entering an extended Bearish price trend.Read this research article about Excess Phase Peaks: HOW TO SPOT THEN END OF AN EXCESS PHASE - PART 2SPY May Already Be In A Phase 4 Excess Peak PhaseThis Daily SPY chart highlights my analysis, showing the major downward sloping trend line, the Middle Resistance Zone, and the lower Support Zone. Combined, these are acting as a “Wedge” for price over the past few weeks – tightening into an Apex near $435~440.If the US major indexes attempt to break this downward price trend, then the price must attempt to move solidly above this downward sloping price channel and try to rally back into the Resistance Zone (near $445~$450). Unless that happens, the price will likely transition into a deeper downward price move, attempting to break below recent lows, near $410, and possibly quickly moving down to the $360 level.SPY Weekly Chart Shows Consolidation Near $435 – Possibly Starting A Phase 4 Excess PeakTraders should stay keenly aware of the risks associated with the broad US and global market decline as the Ukraine war, and other unknowns continue to elevate fear and concerns related to the global economy. In my opinion, with the current excess global debt levels, extended speculative market bubbles, and the continued commodity price rally, we may be starting to transition away from an extended growth phase and into a deeper depreciation cycle phase.My research suggests we entered a new Depreciation cycle phase in late 2019 and are already more than 25 months into a potential 9.5-year global Depreciation cycle. What comes next should not surprise anyone.Read this article about Depreciation Cycle Phases: HOW TO INTERPRET & PROFIT FROM THE RISKS OF A DEPRECIATION CYCLE Traders should stay keenly focused on market risks and weaknesses. I expected the conflict in Ukraine to have been priced into the US markets over the past 7+ days. However, I believe the markets were unprepared for this scale or invasion and will attempt to settle fair stock price valuation levels as the conflict continues. This is not the same US/Global market Bullish trend we've become used to trading over the past 5+ years. Looking Forward - preparing for a possible Bear marketMarket dynamics and trends are changing from what we have experienced over the past 40 years for stocks and bonds. The 60/40 portfolio is costing you money now. Traders need an edge to stay ahead of these markets trends and to protect and profit from big trends.The only way to navigate the financial markets safely, no matter the direction, is through technical analysis. By following assets and money flows, we identify trend changes and move our capital into whatever index, sector, industry, bond, commodity, country, and even currency ETF. By following the money, you become part of new emerging trends and can profit during weak stock or bond conditions.Want Trading Strategies that Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains - 04.03.2022

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains - 04.03.2022

John Benjamin John Benjamin 04.03.2022 09:19
USDJPY tests supply areaThe Japanese yen stalled after an increase in January’s unemployment rate.The pair’s rally above the supply zone around 115.80 has put the US dollar back on track. The general direction remains up despite its choppiness. 114.40 has proved to be solid support and kept the bulls in the game.A close above 115.80 would extend the rally to the double top (116.30), a major resistance on the daily chart. Meanwhile, an overbought RSI caused a limited pullback, with 115.10 as fresh support.NZDUSD breaks resistanceThe New Zealand dollar recovers amid commodity price rallies.After the pair found support near last September’s lows (0.6530), a bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests that sentiment could be turning around. A bullish breakout above the recent high (0.6810) would further boost buyers’ confidence and lift offers to January’s high at 0.6890.On the downside, 0.6730 is the first support if buyers struggle to gather more interest. 0.6675 would be a second layer to keep the current rebound intact.UK 100 lacks supportThe FTSE 100 slipped after the second round of talks between Russia and Ukraine ended without much result.The index met stiff selling pressure at 7560 then fell below the critical floor at 7170. Increasingly bearish sentiment triggered a new round of sell-off to the psychological level of 7000 from last November.A deeper correction would lead to a retest of 6850, dampening the market mood in the medium-term. On the upside, the bulls must clear 7300 and 7450 to reclaim control of the direction.
Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Sentiment turns as the U.S. looks to regulate cryptos

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Sentiment turns as the U.S. looks to regulate cryptos

FXStreet News FXStreet News 03.03.2022 16:07
Bitcoin price sees its gains being pared back a bit after more talks on regulatory crackdown out of U.S. on cryptocurrencies. Ethereum price slips further away from $3,018 after Powell's speech before Congress talked about regulating cryptocurrencies. XRP price sideways, awaiting a catalyst to go either way. Cryptocurrencies are facing some headwinds – whilst they have enjoyed more inflows of late as both Ukrainian and Russian inhabitants reverted to cryptocurrencies as an alternative means of payment to avoid sanctions – there are signs this loophole will soon be closed. During Biden's State of the Union speech the president asked for a crackdown on cryptocurrencies to close the escape route for wealthy Russians. FED chair Powell added fuel to the fire by saying that he would welcome further regulation to monitor and control cryptocurrencies better. The result is that these comments have triggered some nervousness in all significant cryptocurrency pairs. Bitcoin bulls are rejected at $44,088 with the risk of sliding back to $42,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price saw a full paring back of the losses accumulated during the Russian invasion as cryptocurrencies saw renewed cash inflow from both Russians and Ukrainians looking for alternative means of payment after both central banks had put in cash withdrawal restrictions. As Bitcoin looked to be poised for another leg higher, both Biden and Powell created some headwinds by urging for more regulatory crackdown, as it is emerging that cryptocurrencies are undermining sanctions on Russia. With this renewed negative attention towards cryptocurrencies, investors are being quick to book profits and, in the process, are pushing BTC price action to the downside. BTC price saw an initial rejection at $45,261, a level which coincides with the low of December 17, and as such triggered some profit-taking. As profit-taking continues bulls are faced with another rejection at $44,088, a level that goes back to August 06. Below that, the search for support finds nothing until $41,756 or the psychological $42,000 level near the baseline of a bearish triangle we had marked up earlier. BTC/USD daily chart As more talks are underway, a breakthrough could still happen at any moment. If that happened, it would mean that bears would fail in their attempt to squeeze out bulls and get stopped out themselves once the price pierced through $44,088 to the upside. That move would even accelerate after shooting through $45,261, with a quick rally to $48,760 and, from there, positioning Bitcoin to pop back above $50,000 next week. Ethereum bulls are defending the 55-day SMA, but support is wearing thin Ethereum (ETH) price takes another step back today after more negative connotations from FED Chair Powell in the house hearing before Congress. Next to committing to more rate hikes, Powell also drilled down on cryptocurrencies and called them a risk that needs to be prioritised with regulations. That puts greater regulation for cryptocurrencies at the top of the congressional agenda – after Ukraine, and inland inflation had pushed that bullet point further down the list. For the moment, ETH sees bulls defending the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,880. Although it looks good to hold for now, in the past, the 55-day SMA has not built a solid reputation of being well respected. So expect a possible breach once the US session kicks in and Powell makes more negative comments on cryptocurrencies in his second day of congressional hearings, which will likely push ETH price below the 55-day SMA at $2,880, through the monthly pivot at $2,835, and down to a possible endpoint at around $2,695. ETH/USD daily chart As the situation in Russia further deteriorates with more sanctions on the shelf, residents will be forced even more to flee into cryptocurrencies to avoid any repercussions from the financial sanctions imposed. That would mean broad flux inflow throughout the coming days, with ETH price action popping above $3,018, and in the process breaking the double top of rejection from Tuesday and Wednesday. To the upside, that could see $3,391 for a test as the inflow will outweigh any bearish attempts from short sellers. XRP price testing monthly pivot to the downside as dollar strength weighs Ripple's (XRP) price is under pressure to the downside as bears are putting in their effort to break the new monthly pivot at $0.76. Bears are getting help from the other side of the asset pair by the dollar’s strength weighing on price action for a second consecutive day. With Ukraine's current tension and possible retaliation from Russia against the West, safe havens are broadly bid with the Greenback on the front foot and thus outpacing XRP’s valuation, resulting in a move lower. Expect XRP price to see an accelerated move once the monthly pivot at $0.76 gives way. With not much in the way, the road is open to drop to $0.62, with $0.70 and $0.68 as possible breaking off points where bears could see some profit-taking and attempts by bulls to halt the downturn. But the trifecta of the negative comments from both Biden and Powell joined with the safe-haven bid is too big of a force to withstand, making $0.62 almost inevitable in the coming hours or trading days. XRP/USD daily chart The only event that could turn this around is if a catalyst were to remove the safe-haven bid. That could come with a resolution of the current tension in Ukraine or surrender of the Russian army of some sort. In such an outcome, the safe-haven bid would evaporate, followed by a massive risk-on flow which would see XRP pop above $0.78 and rally to $0.88, taking out $0.84 along the way to the upside.
Back to Risk-Off

Back to Risk-Off

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 04.03.2022 15:50
S&P 500 consolidation isn‘t turning out well for the bulls as 4,300 can be easily broken again if I look at credit markets‘ posture. Treasuries just aren‘t sliding no matter the Fed‘s ambiguity on inflation, let alone markets sniffing out rate hike ideas getting revisited. Still, tech gave up opening gains, and closed on a weak note while commodities and precious metals maintained high ground, and the dollar continued rising.The odds are stacked against paper market bulls, and as I had been telling you weeks ago already, this is the time of real assets outperformance. In this sense, miners‘ leadership is a great confirmation of more strength to come, of inflation to continue… Everyone‘s free to make their own opinion after the State of the Union address.On the bright side, the flood of recently closed series of trades spanning stocks, precious metals, oil and copper, has resulted in sharp equity curve gains – and more good calls are in the making, naturally:Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is facing a setback, which could turn a lot worse if the sentiment turn continues. Odds are it would, and we would see some selling going into the weekend.Credit MarketsHYG refused to extend opening gains, and the message is clear, and also a reaction to the Fed‘s pronouncements. Treasuries though are more careful in the tightening prospects assessment – risk-off in bonds and the dollar continues.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are doing great, and are likely to continue rising no matter what the dollar does. There is no good reason for a selloff if you look around objectively. Miners are confirming, the upleg is underway.Crude OilCrude oil upswing isn‘t yet done, it would be premature to say so. It seems though that the time of volatile chop and new base building can continue – oil stocks are the barometer.CopperCopper outperformance leaves me a bit cautious – the advance is likely to slow down and get challenged next. It was a good run, and the red metal isn‘t at all done in the medium-term.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto downswing is reaching a bit farther than I would have been comfortable with. The buyers are welcome to step in on good volume, but I‘m not expecting miracles today or through the weekend.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are losing the initiative, and neither credit markets nor the dollar favor a turnaround today. Treasuries rising in spite of the Fed‘s messaging are also casting a clear verdict, and the yield curve compression continues. The risk-off sentiment that is getting an intermezzo here and there, is likely to rule unless the Fed makes a profound turn before the Mar FOMC. And given the inflation dynamics with all the consequences beyond economics, that‘s unlikely to happen. Markets are thus likely to continue fearing the confluence of events till...Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Shiba Inu price is back in a downtrend holding a potential 17% correction

Shiba Inu price is back in a downtrend holding a potential 17% correction

FXStreet News FXStreet News 04.03.2022 16:07
Red flags for Shiba Inu as three bearish strikes are putting SHIB on track for a 17% loss. Markets, in general, are moving into hibernation mode to overcome the rising tensions in Ukraine.Expect the downtrend to continue until the floor is reached at around $0.00002100.Shiba Inu (SHIB) price action is under the scrutiny of bears as bulls have given away their upper hand and are falling over each other to get out of SHIB price action as it tanks for a third consecutive day. With three bearish signals on the technical front and failed peace talks again between Russia and Ukraine, the background looks set for more downturns to come. From the opening price today, SHIB price action is set to correct another 17% before the current intermediary floor is reached for a test of $0.00002100.SHIB price action is going along with global markets and sees safe-haven bids outweigh the upside potentialShiba Inu price action is under siege by bears after a series of bearish coups overtook price action. On Wednesday, the first negative signal came from a false break and bull trap, at $0.00002707 and the monthly pivot. Bulls broke above but got washed out of their positions by bears, pushing price action below the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $0.00002600. The SMA in its turn again triggered a rejection at the top side on Thursday with bulls being squeezed out of their positions.The pain for SHIB bulls looks far from over as in early morning trading during the ASIA PAC session, strike three was delivered with a break below the low of yesterday, leading to price action dangling above an abyss of around 17%. The first and only real solid support to the downside is at around $0.00002100, with the green ascending trendline holding five solid tests proving that it is a line in the sand where bulls will engage in full force to uphold price action from falling further. The psychological $0.00002000 should add to the strength of the level, but an eventful weekend could see a further crackdown towards $0.00001883 at the monthly S1 support level.SHIB/USD daily chartAs said in the introductory statement, all this results from the Ukraine situation and global markets further going into safe-haven mode. All it would take are just some flairs of positive news alluding to a solution in Ukraine that would trigger a quick and smooth turnaround back towards $0.00002800. With that move, not only would the red descending trend line at the top side be broken, but as well the 78.6% Fibonacci level would come into play, opening the door for more upside to come.
Fed’s Tightening Cycle: Bullish or Bearish for Gold?

Fed’s Tightening Cycle: Bullish or Bearish for Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 04.03.2022 16:14
This month, the Fed is expected to hike interest rates. Contrary to popular belief, the tightening doesn't have to be adverse for gold. What does history show?March 2022 – the Fed is supposed to end its quantitative easing and hike the federal funds rate for the first time during recovery from a pandemic crisis . After the liftoff, the Fed will probably also start reducing the size of its mammoth balance sheet and raise interest rates a few more times. Thus, the tightening of monetary policy is slowly becoming a reality. The golden question is: how will the yellow metal behave under these conditions?Let’s look into the past. The last tightening cycle of 2015-2019 was rather positive for gold prices. The yellow metal rallied in this period from $1,068 to $1,320 (I refer here to monthly averages), gaining about 24%, as the chart below shows.What’s really important is that gold bottomed out in December 2015, the month of the liftoff. Hence, if we see a replay of this episode, gold should detach from $1,800 and go north, into the heavenly land of bulls. However, in December 2015, real interest rates peaked, while in January 2016, the US dollar found its local top. These factors helped to catapult gold prices a few years ago, but they don’t have to reappear this time.Let’s dig a bit deeper. The earlier tightening cycle occurred between 2004 and 2006, and it was also a great time for gold, despite the fact that the Fed raised interest rates by more than 400 basis points, something unthinkable today. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal (monthly average) soared from $392 to $634, or more than 60%. Just as today, inflation was rising back then, but it was also a time of great weakness in the greenback, a factor that is currently absent.Let’s move even further back into the past. The Fed also raised the federal funds rate in the 1994-1995 and 1999-2000 periods. The chart below shows that these cases were rather neutral for gold prices. In the former, gold was traded sideways, while in the latter, it plunged, rallied, and returned to a decline. Importantly, just as in 2015, the yellow metal bottomed out soon after the liftoff in early 1999.In the 1980s, there were two major tightening cycles – both clearly negative for the yellow metal. In 1983-1984, the price of gold plunged 29% from $491 to $348, despite rising inflation, while in 1988-1989, it dropped another 12%, as you can see in the chart below.Finally, we have traveled back in time to the Great Stagflation period! In the 1970s, the Fed’s tightening cycles were generally positive for gold, as the chart below shows. In the period from 1972 to 1974, the average monthly price of the yellow metal soared from $48 to $172, or 257%. The tightening of 1977-1980 was an even better episode for gold. Its price skyrocketed from $132 to $675, or 411%. However, monetary tightening in 1980-1981 proved not very favorable , with the yellow metal plunging then to $409.What are the implications of our historical analysis for the gold market in 2022? First, the Fed’s tightening cycle doesn’t have to be bad for gold. In this report, I’ve examined nine tightening cycles – of which four were bullish, two were neutral, and three were bearish for the gold market. Second, all the negative cases occurred in the 1980s, while the two most recent cycles from the 21st century were positive for gold prices. It bodes well for the 2022 tightening cycle.Third, the key is, as always, the broader macroeconomic context – namely, what is happening with the US dollar, inflation, and real interest rates. For example, in the 1970s, the Fed was hiking rates amid soaring inflation. However, in March 1980, the CPI annul rate peaked, and a long era of disinflation started. This is why tightening cycles were generally positive in the 1970s, and negative in the 1980s.Hence, it seems on the surface that the current tightening should be bullish for gold, as it is accompanied by high inflation. However, inflation is expected to peak this year. If this happens, real interest rates could increase even further, creating downward pressure on gold prices. Please remember that the real federal funds rate is at a record low level. If inflation peaks, gold bulls’ only hope will be either a bearish trend in the US dollar (amid global recovery and ECB’s monetary policy tightening) or a dovish shift in market expectations about the path of the interest rates, given that the Fed’s tightening cycle has historically been followed by an economic slowdown or recession.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Bitcoin (BTC) To Hit $100k In A Few Years' Time?

Bitcoin (BTC) To Hit $100k In A Few Years' Time?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 07.03.2022 09:05
With a sharp decline over the weekend, Bitcoin wiped out the initial gains, gave away the positions to bears after the third straight week of gains. On Saturday and Sunday, there were drawdowns to $34K on the low-liquid market. So the rate of the first cryptocurrency fell to $38K with a 3.8% loss. However, over the past 24 hours, BTC has reached $39,000 while Ethereum has lost 4.5%. Other leading altcoins from the top ten decline from 2% (XRP) to 6.8% (LUNA). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 3.8%, to $1.71 trillion. The bitcoin dominance index sank from 42.9% on Friday to 42.3% due to the sale of bitcoin over the weekend. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index is at 23 now, remaining in a state of "extreme fear". Looking back, in the middle of the week, the index had a moment in the neutral position. The FxPro Analyst team mentioned that the sales were triggered by reports that the BTC.com pool banned the registration of Russian users. Cryptocurrencies do not remain aloof from politics, and they are weakly confirming the role of an alternative to the banking system now, supporting EU and US sanctions against Russia, and showing their own initiative. The news appeared that Switzerland would freeze the crypto assets of the Russians who fall under the sanctions. In the second half of the week, bitcoin lost almost all the growth against the backdrop of a decline in stock indices. Although, last week started on a positive wave: BTC added almost $8,000 (21%) since previous Monday, but couldn't overcome the strong resistance of mid-February highs at around $45,000 and the 100-day moving average. Speaking about the prospects, pressure on all risky assets will continue to be exerted by the situation around Ukraine, where hostilities have been taking place for two weeks. Worth mentioning that the world-famous investor and writer Robert Kiyosaki said that the US is “destroying the dollar” and called for investing in gold and bitcoin. At the same time, the founder of the investment company SkyBridge Capital (Anthony Scaramucci) is confident that bitcoin will reach $100,000 by 2024. At the moment, he has invested about $1 billion in BTC. Plis, a group of American senators is developing a bill that opens access to the crypto market for institutional investors. And one more news to consider: the city of Lugano in Switzerland has recognized bitcoin and the leading stablecoin Tether (USDT) as legal tender.
USDCAD Trades Higher, EURGBP Nears 0.83, S&P 500 (SPX) Fell A Little

USDCAD Trades Higher, EURGBP Nears 0.83, S&P 500 (SPX) Fell A Little

Jing Ren Jing Ren 08.03.2022 09:29
USDCAD breaks higher The US dollar bounces back as traders pile into safer currencies at the expense of commodity assets. The previous rally above the supply zone at 1.2800 has prompted sellers to cover. Then a follow-up pullback saw support over 1.2600, a sign of accumulation and traders’ strong interest in keeping the greenback afloat. A breakout above 1.2810 could pave the way for an extended rise to last December’s high at 1.2950, even though the RSI’s situation may briefly hold the bulls back. 1.2680 is a fresh support in case of a pullback. EURGBP bounces back The euro recoups losses as shorts cover ahead of the ECB meeting. The pair’s fall below the major floor (0.8280) on the daily chart further weighs on sentiment. The lack of support suggests that traders’ are wary of catching a falling knife. The RSI’s double-dip into the oversold area has led to profit-taking, driving the price up. However, the rally could turn out to be a dead cat bounce if the bears fade the rebound in the supply zone around 0.8360. 0.8200 is a fresh support when momentum comes back again. SPX 500 struggles to rebound The S&P 500 extended losses as investors are wary of a global economic downturn. On the daily chart, a brief rebound has met stiff selling pressure on the 30-day moving average (4410). In fact, this indicates that the bearish mood still dominates after the index fell through 4250. Buyers have failed to hold above 4230, leaving the market vulnerable to another round of sell-off. 4110 is the next stop and a bearish breakout could lead to the psychological level of 4000. 4320 is now the closest resistance ahead.
Gold Tries to Hold Above $2000 - Hard Landing Ahead?

Gold Tries to Hold Above $2000 - Hard Landing Ahead?

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 08.03.2022 16:02
  Gold has hit $2,000 but is still struggling to maintain that historical level. It has already tried 8 times - will the ninth attempt succeed? Many indications make this doubtful. Gold is attempting to break above the $2,000 milestone, and miners are trying to break above their declining resistance line. Will they manage to do so, and if so, how long will the rally last? Yesterday, gold didn’t manage to close above the $2,000 level and it’s making another attempt to rally above it in today’s pre-market trading. However, will it be successful? Given the RSI above 70 and the strength of the current resistance, it’s doubtful. In fact, nothing has changed with regard to this likelihood since yesterday, so what I wrote about it in the previous Gold & Silver Trading Alert remains up-to-date: Gold touched $2,000 in today’s pre-market trading, which is barely above its 2021 high and below its 2020 high. Crude oil is way above both analogous levels. In other words, gold underperforms crude oil to a significant extent, just like in 2003. Interestingly, back in 2003, gold topped when crude oil rallied about 40% from its short-term lows (the late-2002 low). What happened next in 2003? Gold declined, and the moment when crude oil started to visibly outperform gold was also the beginning of a big decline in gold stocks. That makes perfect sense on the fundamental level too. Gold miners’ share prices depend on their profits (just like it’s the case with any other company). Crude oil at higher levels means higher costs for the miners (the machinery has to be fueled, the equipment has to be transported, etc.). When costs (crude oil could be viewed as a proxy for them) are rising faster than revenues (gold could be viewed as a proxy for them), miners’ profits appear to be in danger; and investors don’t like this kind of danger, so they sell shares. Of course, there are many more factors that need to be taken into account, but I just wanted to emphasize one way in which the above-mentioned technical phenomenon is justified. Back in 2003, gold stocks wiped out their entire war-concern-based rally, and the biggest part of the decline took just a bit more than a month. Let’s remember that back then, gold stocks were in a very strong medium- and long-term uptrend. Right now, mining stocks remain in a medium-term downtrend, so their decline could be bigger – they could give away their war-concern-based gains and then decline much more. Mining stocks are not declining profoundly yet, but let’s keep in mind that history rhymes – it doesn’t repeat to the letter. As I emphasized previously today, back in 2003 and 2002, the tensions were building for a longer time, and it was relatively clear in advance that the U.S. attack was going to happen. This time, Russia claimed that it wouldn’t attack until the very last minute before the invasion. Consequently, the “we have to act now” is still likely to be present, and the dust hasn’t settled yet – everything appears to be unclear, and thus the markets are not returning to their previous trends. Yet. However, as history shows, that is likely to happen. Either immediately, or shortly, as crude oil is already outperforming gold. The above chart features the GDXJ ETF. As you can see, the junior miners moved to their very strong resistance provided by the declining resistance line. This resistance is further strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and the previous (late-2021) high. This means that it’s particularly strong, and any breakout here would likely be invalidated shortly. Given the clear sell signal from the RSI indicator, a turnaround here is even more likely. I marked the previous such signals to emphasize their efficiency. When the RSI was above 70, a top was in 6 out of 7 of the recent cases, and the remaining case was shortly before the final top, anyway. This resistance seems to be analogous to the $2,000 level in gold. By the way, please note that gold tried to break above $2,000 several times: twice in August 2020; twice in September 2020 (once moving above it, once moving just near this level); once in November 2020 (moving near this level); once in January 2021 (moving near this level); once in February 2022 (moving near this level). These attempts failed in each of the 7 cases mentioned above. This is the eight attempt. Will this very strong resistance break this time? Given how much crude oil has already soared, and how both markets used to react to war tensions in the case of oil-producing countries, it seems that the days of the rally are numbered. Moving back to the GDXJ ETF, please note that while gold is moving close to its all-time highs, the junior miners are not doing anything like that. In fact, they barely moved slightly above their late-2021 high. They are not even close to their 2021 high, let alone their 2020 high. Instead, junior mining stocks are just a bit above their early-2020 high, from which their prices were more than cut in half in less than a month. In other words, junior miners strongly underperform gold, which is a bearish sign. When gold finally declines – and it’s likely to, as geopolitical events tend to have only a temporary effect on prices, even if they’re substantial – junior miners will probably slide much more than gold. One of the reasons is the likely decline in the general stock market. I recently received a question about the impact the general stock market has on mining stocks, as the latter moved higher despite stocks’ decline in recent weeks. So, let’s take a look at a chart that will feature junior mining stocks, the GLD ETF, and the S&P 500 Index. Before the Ukraine crisis, the link between junior miners and the stock market was clear. Now, it's not as clear, but it’s still present. Juniors only moved to their late-2021 highs, while gold is over $100 above those highs. Juniors underperform significantly, in tune with the stock market's weakness. The gold price is still the primary driver of mining stock prices – including junior mining stocks. After all, that’s what’s either being sold by the company (that produces gold) or in the properties that the company owns and explores (junior miners). As gold prices exploded in the last couple of weeks, junior miners practically had to follow. However, this doesn’t mean that the stock market’s influence is not present nor that it’s going to be unimportant going forward. Conversely, the weak performance of the general stock market likely contributed to junior miners’ weakness relative to gold – the former didn’t rally as much as the latter. Since the weakness in the general stock market is likely to continue, and gold’s rally is likely to be reversed (again, what happened in the case of other military conflicts is in tune with history, not against it), junior miners are likely to decline much more profoundly than gold. Speaking of the general stock market, it just closed at the lowest level since mid-2021. The key thing about the above chart is that what we’ve seen this year is the biggest decline since 2020, and the size of the recent slide is comparable to what we saw as the initial wave down in 2020 – along with the subsequent correction. If these moves are analogous, the recent rebound was perfectly normal – there was one in early 2020 too. This also means that a much bigger decline is likely in the cards in the coming weeks, and that it’s already underway. This would be likely to have a very negative impact on the precious metals market, in particular on junior mining stocks (initially) and silver (a bit later). All in all, it seems that due to the technical resistance in gold and mining stocks, the sizable – but likely temporary (like other geopolitical-event-based-ones) – rally is likely to be reversed shortly. Then, as the situation in the general stock market deteriorates, junior miners would be likely to plunge in a spectacular manner. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boeing Company Stock News and Forecast: BA slips on Russian supply woes

Boeing Company Stock News and Forecast: BA slips on Russian supply woes

FXStreet News FXStreet News 08.03.2022 16:05
Boeing stock falls as Russian raw material supplies are likely to be in short supply. Boeing earlier said it was suspending buying Russian titanium. BA stocks fell over 6% on Monday as main indices fell over 3%. Boeing (BA) stock slipped on Monday, even disproportionally versus the main market. While the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell in the region of 3% to 4%, Boeing underperformed as it fell just under 6.5%. Boeing Stock News Monday's move took Boeing stock to new 52-week lows as the stock remains pressured in the current risk-off environment. The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that Boeing had suspended purchases of titanium from Russia as the company felt it had enough supply from other sources. “Our inventory and diversity of titanium sources provide sufficient supply for airplane production, and we will continue to take the right steps to ensure long-term continuity,” a Boeing spokeswoman told WSJ. Also on Monday Cowen & Co. lowered their price target for Boeing from $265 to $230. Cowen maintained their outperform rating on Boeing. Breaking Defense had last week reported that Air Force One's replacement was running up to 17 months late, according to two sources. Boeing is the supplier of Air Force One. Boeing will also likely feel headwinds from the current surge in oil prices. While not directly affected, higher oil prices will flow through to higher airfares and a likely reduction in passenger demand. This would see a knock-on but delayed demand for additional planes affecting Boeing and its main competitor, Airbus. However, Boeing does have a large military division. At the end of 2021 the Boeing Defence, Space & Security division accounted for over 33% of total Boeing revenues. The US Department of Defense is the top customer of this division. Boeing Stock Forecast Breaking the 52-week low is significant, and from the weekly chart below we can see how Boeing failed to regain its pre-pandemic levels. This should have been setting off alarm bells as stocks and indices reached all-time highs. The aerospace sector was a special case, but technically this was a bearish signal. BA stock chart, weekly The daily chart outlines the series of bearish lower lows and highs. Any rally to $185 can be used to instigate fresh bearish positions. BA stock chart, daily
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains - 09.03.2022

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains - 09.03.2022

John Benjamin John Benjamin 09.03.2022 08:47
USDJPY breaks higherThe Japanese yen softened after weaker-than-expected GDP in Q4. Despite choppiness in recent price action, confidence in the greenback remains high.A failed attempt at the supply zone (115.80) suggests a lack of momentum, but a swift bounce off 114.65 reveals strong enough buying interest.A bullish breakout would lead to the double top at 116.35. Its breach could end the two-month-long consolidation and trigger an extended rally towards January 2017’s highs around 118.00. 115.40 is fresh support.AUDUSD seeks supportThe Australian dollar stalls as commodity prices consolidate. The rally above 0.7310, a major supply area, has weakened selling pressure and put the pair on a bullish reversal course.The Aussie’s parabolic ascent and an overbought RSI prompted short-term buyers to take profit. As the RSI swings back into the oversold zone, the bulls may see the current fallback as an opportunity to stake in.0.7380 is a fresh resistance and 0.7250 is the immediate support. Further below 0.7170 is a critical level to keep the rebound valid.UK 100 sees limited bounceThe FTSE 100 struggles as the UK plans to ban Russian energy imports.On the daily chart, a break below the demand zone (6850) wiped out 11-months worth of gains and signaled a strong bearish bias. The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a temporary rebound, but a bearish MA cross could attract more selling interest.The liquidation is yet to end as medium-term buyers scramble for the exit. 7200 is a fresh resistance and 7450 is a major supply zone. A drop below 6800 may lead to 6500.
Russia-Ukraine is there any hope for the markets

Russia-Ukraine is there any hope for the markets

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 09.03.2022 11:23
The Russian rouble remains under pressure, while all the new controls on currency transactions in Russia are alienating the exchange rate at home and on global FX. The 12% commission on currency purchases explains the difference between the external and domestic exchange rates. That said, one must realise that "catching the bottom" of the ruble is hardly wise when new sanctions are imposed almost on a daily basis. The economic landslide continues with extreme speed. Across the other EM markets, there is a concern or even pessimism about the medium-term outlook, and some relative easing of the fear level is striking in the stock markets today. Commodity markets, which continued their move towards new extremes yesterday, have encountered substantial selling, which continues today. Some reduction in the excitement can be attributed to hopes of progress towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.Nevertheless, the conditions already prevailing in commodity markets are putting serious pressure on EM equities and currencies. EM populations are more vulnerable to soaring basic food and energy prices and currencies to capital outflows due to flight to safety. All of this is tightening financial conditions is undermining the economic recovery that investors had hoped for at the start of the year because of the retreat of the pandemic. While the end of last year and the beginning of this one were sentiments that growth momentum was shifting from the US to Europe and emerging markets, events in recent weeks have not only returned EM markets to the downward trend but again show that US markets are the best refuge for capital. For example, Chinese indices are losing 35% (Hang Seng) to 43% (China H-star) from their February 2021 peak. And this trend will not quickly reverse even if the military conflict in Eastern Europe ends right now because economic and reputational damage has already been done, which will take months or even years to undo.
Ringing the Bell

Ringing the Bell

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 09.03.2022 16:03
S&P 500 once again gave up intraday gains, and credit markets confirmed the decline. Value down significantly more than tech, risk-off anywhere you look. For days without end, but the reprieve can come on seemingly little to no positive news, just when the sellers exhaust themselves and need to regroup temporarily. We‘re already seeing signs of such a respite in precious metals and commodities – be it the copper downswing, oil unable to break $130, or miners not following gold much higher yesterday. Corn and wheat also consolidated – right or wrong, the market seeks to anticipate some relief from Eastern Europe.The big picture though hasn‘t changed:(…) credit markets … posture is very risk-off, and the rush to commodities goes on. With a little check yesterday on the high opening prices in crude oil and copper, but still. My favorite agrifoods picks of late, wheat and corn, are doing great, and the pressure within select base metals, is building up – such as (for understandable reasons) in nickel and aluminum. Look for more to come, especially there where supply is getting messed with (this doesn‘t concern copper to such a degree, explaining its tepid price gains).And I‘m not talking even the brightest spot, where I at the onset of 2022 announced that precious metals would be the great bullish surprise this year. Those who listened, are rocking and rolling – we‘re nowhere near the end of the profitable run! Crude oil is likely to consolidate prior steep gains, and could definitely continue spiking higher. Should it stay comfortably above $125 for months, that would lead to quite some demand destruction. Given that black gold acts as a „shadow Fed funds rate“, ......its downswing would contribute to providing the Fed with an excuse not to hike in Mar by 50bp. After the prior run up in the price of black gold that however renders such an excuse a verbal exercise only, the Fed remains between a rock and hard place, and the inflationary fires keep raging on.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is reaching for the Feb 24 lows, and may find respite at this level. The upper knot though would need a solid close today (above 4,250) to be of short-term significance. Remember, the market remains very much headline sensitive.Credit MarketsHYG clearly remains on the defensive, but the sellers may need a pause here, if volume is any guide. Bonds are getting beaten, and the outlook remains negative to neutral for the weeks ahead. Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals keep doing great, but a pause is knocking on the door. Not a reversal, a pause. Gold and silver are indeed the go-to assets in the current situation, and miners agree wholeheartedly.Crude OilCrude oil is having trouble extending gains, and the consolidation I mentioned yesterday, approaches. I do not think however that this is the end of the run higher.CopperCopper is pausing already, and this underperformer looks very well bid above $4.60. Let the red metal build a base, and continue rising next, alongside the rest of the crowd.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos upswing equals more risk appetite? It could be so, looking at the dollar‘s chart (I‘m talking that in the summary of today‘s analysis).SummaryEvery dog has its day, and the S&P 500‘s one might be coming today or tomorrow. It‘s that the safe havens of late (precious metals, commodities and the dollar) are having trouble extending prior steep gains further. These look to be in for a brief respite that would be amplified on any possible news of deescalation. In such an environment, risk taking would flourish at expense of gold, silver and oil especially. I don‘t think so we have seen the tops – precious metals are likely to do great on the continued inflation turning into stagflation (GDP growth figures being downgraded), and commodities are set to further benefit from geopolitics (among much else).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
How You Can Minimize Trading Risk & Grow Capital During A Global Crisis

How You Can Minimize Trading Risk & Grow Capital During A Global Crisis

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 09.03.2022 22:39
To minimize trading risk and grow capital during a global crisis is somewhat hinged on the answers to speculative questions. How long will the Russia – Ukraine war last? How high is the price of oil and gas going to go? How quickly will central banks raise interest rates to counter high inflation? What assets should I put my money into? Knowing what the Best Asset Now (BAN) is, is critical for risk management and consistent growth no matter the market condition!‘BUY THE DIP’ or ‘SELL THE RALLY’? - DJI Weekly ChartAs of 3/8/22, YTD returns are: DJIA -10.20%, S&P 500 -12.49%, Nasdaq 100 -18.70%The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded as high as 36952.65 on January 5, 2022The DJIA put in a Covid 2020 Low of 18213.65 on March 23, 2020. When you double the price of this significant low, you get a price of 36427.30, which the DJIA reached on November 4, 2021. This was precisely 591 calendar days from the 2020 low. The 200% level seems to have capped the bull rally. If, in fact, this is the top and the start of a bear market, we should experience high volatility both up and down. However, the highs and lows should be lower as the market begins to trend lower. The volatility will also continue to increase as the market deflates and continues to lose capital.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! It appears this scenario may very well coincide with the fundamental current events of high inflation, central banks unable to add stimulus, having to raise their interest rates, and current/future geopolitical events.What-To-Do Before the Storm Hits“Have A Plan and Stick-To-Your-Plan”There are some basic strategies or practices that professional traders utilize to minimize trading risk and grow capital. Here are a few ideas:Bull/Bear Markets – In an upmarket, you should buy the dips. In a down market, you should do the opposite and sell the rallies. Rallies in a down 'bear' market tend to be very fast and short-lived.Diversification – Don't have your eggs in too many baskets. It is better to navigate thru a storm by focusing your resources specifically rather than generally.Leverage – Reduce leverage, position size, or know how you will respond to different percentage losses or gains. Understand what your investment objective is as well as your tolerance for risk. If you're having trouble sleeping at night, you should reduce your holdings to the place where you are comfortable.Leverage is a mathematical equation, and it does not have to be 1x, 2x, etc. It can also be 0.75x, 0.50x, etc. You get to decide what's best for you and your family. Leverage is also a double-edged sword! Be careful, especially when the markets are on edge and volatile.Where is the Institutional Money Going?The global currency market, otherwise known as Forex or FX, is the largest market in the world. According to the BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey, published on December 8, 2019, by the Bank for International Settlements, it has an average daily transactional volume of $6.6 trillion.By tracking global money flow, we can get a pretty good idea of where the smart money is going. For now, let’s see what has happened during the last 6-months.According to www.finviz.com, we notice that the US Dollar, despite its Covid stimulus spending spree, was the preferred currency. However, the Eurodollar has seen substantial outflows decreasing by -7.60%, which is entirely understandable with the Russia – Ukraine War at their doorstep.Global central banks ponder how quickly to raise interest rates in order to curb high inflation!According to TradingEconomics, the current global interest rates by major country are: United States 0.25%, Japan -0.10%, Switzerland -0.75%, Euro Region 0.00%, United Kingdom 0.50%, Canada 0.50%, and Australia 0.10%.The US Federal Reserve may have been looking to raise interest rates by as much as 50 basis points at its next policy meeting. However, given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the FED may become more cautious and consider raising interest rates by only 25 basis points on March 15-16. We need to pay close attention to this high-impact market event.What strategies can help you minimize trading risk and grow capital?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Minimizing risk in order to grow your capital must remain a primary focus for all investors and traders. Now is the time to keep your eye on the ball!I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Crypto Update: Bitcoin (BTC) Has Lost 5.6%, Ether (ETH) Has Decreased By 4.8%, Terra (LUNA) Has Lost 1% And AVAX Has Gone Down As Well

Crypto Update: Bitcoin (BTC) Has Lost 5.6%, Ether (ETH) Has Decreased By 4.8%, Terra (LUNA) Has Lost 1% And AVAX Has Gone Down As Well

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 10.03.2022 08:33
Bitcoin soared 8.8% on Wednesday, ending the day around $41.9K. Apparently, the benchmark cryptocurrency experienced clear problems with growth above $42K. On Thursday morning we see an equally strong reversal move back to $39K. As a result, Bitcoin lost 5.6% in 24hours Ethereum - 4.8%, other leading altcoins from the top ten are declining from 1% (Terra) to 7.2% (Avalanche).According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 4.5% over the day, to $1.75 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index dropped from 43.0% to 42.7%.The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index added 6 points to 28, climbing into “fear” territory.Bitcoin's growth momentum was also supported by the positive dynamics of stock indices, however, on Thursday morning, the positive pull on them remains in contrast to the sell-off of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin jumped when a statement by Janet Yellen appeared on the website of the US Department of the Treasury, which does not contain strict measures to control the field of cryptocurrencies. The statement was posted, probably prematurely, and then quickly removed from the site.Later on Wednesday, US President Joe Biden signed the first executive order to regulate cryptocurrencies in the country. The document contained only the most general provisions, such as consumer protection, financial stability, technology development and the illegal use of cryptocurrencies. More specific measures in the field of control over the digital asset market will be developed by individual federal departments. In our opinion, the States are making it clear that they will not allow cryptocurrencies to become a shadow business and be used to circumvent sanctions, taxes, money laundering and similar things. Such control is more difficult to implement than with centrally issued fiat money.    
EURUSD Rallies, GBPUSD Moves Up A Little, USOIL Goes Back To "Normal" (?) Levels

EURUSD Rallies, GBPUSD Moves Up A Little, USOIL Goes Back To "Normal" (?) Levels

Jing Ren Jing Ren 10.03.2022 08:43
EURUSD bounces back The euro rallies on news that the EU may issue a joint bond to fund energy and defense. The pair found bids near May 2020’s lows (1.0810). An oversold RSI on the daily chart prompted sellers to take profit, easing the downward pressure. A rally above the immediate resistance at 1.0940 and a bullish MA cross may improve sentiment in the short term. However, buyers will need to clear the support-turned-resistance at 1.1160 before they could hope for a meaningful rebound. 1.0910 is the support in case of a pullback. GBPUSD inches higher The sterling claws back losses as risk appetite makes a timid return across the board. Following a three-month-long rebound on the daily chart, a lack of support at 1.3200 and a bearish MA cross shows strong selling pressure. A bounce-back above 1.3200 may only offer temporary relief as sellers potentially look to fade the rebound. 1.3350 is a key hurdle that sits along the 20-day moving average. 1.3080 is fresh support and its breach could trigger a new round of sell-off below the next daily support at 1.2880. USOIL breaks support WTI crude tumbled after the UAE said consider boosting production. The parabolic climb came to a halt at 129.00 and pushed the RSI into an extremely overbought condition on the daily chart. A bearish RSI divergence suggested a loss of momentum and foreshadowed a correction as traders would be wary of chasing the rally. A fall below 115.00 led buyers to bail out, triggering a wave of liquidation. 105.00 is the next support and a breakout could bring the price back to 95.00 near the 30-day moving average.
S&P 500 – Should We Buy the Dip? - 10.03.2022

S&P 500 – Should We Buy the Dip? - 10.03.2022

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 10.03.2022 15:40
  Stock prices remain very volatile, as the Ukraine conflict keeps dominating headlines. Will the market reverse its downtrend? The S&P 500 index gained 2.57% on Wednesday, Mar. 9, as it retraced some of the recent decline. The broad stock market’s gauge got back to the 4,300 level after bouncing from its Tuesday’s low of 4,157.87. On Feb. 24 the index fell to the local low of 4,114.65 and it was 704 points or 14.6% below the January 4 record high of 4,818.62. There’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 1.3% lower and we may see further consolidation. The nearest important resistance level is now at 4,300, and the next resistance level is at 4,350-4,400, among others. On the other hand, the support level remains at 4,150-4,200. The S&P 500 index continues to trade above the recently broken downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract – More Consolidation Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. Recently it broke below the short-term consolidation. On Tuesday it fell to around 4,150, before bouncing back to the 4,200-4,250 level. We are still maintaining our long position, as we are expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index bounced yesterday, but this morning it is expected to open lower. We will likely see some more news-driven volatility. For now, it looks like an upward correction but it may also be a more meaningful upward reversal. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index retraced some of the recent decline, but we may see more volatility. We are maintaining our long position. We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Now, That‘s Better

Now, That‘s Better

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 11.03.2022 15:59
S&P 500 gave up the opening gains, but managed to close on a good note, in spite of credit markets not confirming. Given though the high volume characterizing HYG downswing and retreating crude oil, we may be in for a stock market led rebound today. It‘s that finally, value did much better yesterday than tech.CPI came red hot, but didn‘t beat expectations, yield curve remains flat as a pancake, and the commodity index didn‘t sell off too hard. It remains to be seen whether the miners‘ strength was for real or not – anyway, the yesterday discussed shallow $1,980 - $2,000 range consolidation still remains the most likely scenario. I just don‘t see PMs and commodities giving up a lion‘s share of the post Feb 24 gains next.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 can still turn around, and the odds of doing so successfully (till the closing bell today), have increased yesterday. The diminished volume points to no more sellers at this point while buyers are waiting on the sidelines.Credit MarketsHYG has only marginally closed below Tuesday‘s lows – corporate junk bonds can reverse higher without overcoming Wednesday‘s highs fast, which would still be constructive for a modest S&P 500 upswing.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are indeed refusing to swing lower too much – the sector remains excellently positioned for further gains. For now though, we‘re in a soft patch where the speculative fever is slowly coming out, including out of other commodities. Enter oil.Crude OilCrude oil still remains vulnerable, but would catch a bid quite fast here. Ideally, black gold wouldn‘t break down into the $105 - $100 zone next. I‘m looking for resilience kicking in soon.CopperCopper fake weakness is being reversed, and the red metal is well positioned not to break below Wednesday‘s lows. I‘m not looking for selloff continuation in the CRB Index either.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos remain undecided, and erring on the side of caution – this highlights that the risk appetite‘s return is far from universal.SummaryS&P 500 missed a good opportunity yesterday, but the short-term bullish case isn‘t lost. Stocks actually outperformed credit markets, and given the commodities respite and value doing well, bonds may very well join in the upswing, with a notable hesitation though. That wouldn‘t be a short-term obstacle, take it as the bulls temporarily overpowering the bears – I still think that the selling isn‘t over, and that the downswing would return in the latter half of Mar if (and that‘s a big if) the Fed‘s response to inflation doesn‘t underwhelm the market expectations that have been dialed back considerably over the last two weeks. Token 25bp rate hike, anyone? That wouldn‘t sink stocks dramatically...Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Natural Gas: When A Trade Plan Provides Consecutive Wins

Natural Gas: When A Trade Plan Provides Consecutive Wins

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 11.03.2022 16:24
From time to time, we may want to consider volatility as an ally. After all, why would highly volatile markets necessarily mean more losing trades?The first target was hit – BOOM! Today – just before the weekend – it is time to bank some profits from my recent trade projections (provided on March 2). Since then, the trade plan has provided our dear subscribers with multiple bounces to trade the NYMEX Natural Gas Futures (April contract) in various ways, always depending on each one’s personal risk profile.The first possibility is the swing trading with trailing stop method explained in my famous risk management article.Trade entry triggered on Tuesday, March 8 (firm rebound on yellow band), stop lifted once price extends beyond mid-point (median) price between first target and entry, thus ending at $4.607 (black dotted line), given the market closed at its daily high of $4.704 (purple dotted line) that same day and assuming you entered that long trade at $4.550 (top of the yellow band). That was a quick one that lasted only a couple hours for the day traders who closed their trades at the regular market close (two candles later, see below chart). For the swing traders, the win-stop was triggered the next day (Wednesday) on the following pull-back. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, hourly chart)The second option is to scale the rebounds with fixed targets (active or experienced traders).This method consists of “riding the tails” (or the shadows). To get a better grasp of this concept, let’s zoom out on a 4H-chart so you can see the multiple rebounds of the price characterized by the shadows (or tails) of candlesticks, where a crowd of bulls are placing buy orders around that yellow support zone, therefore squeezing bears by pushing prices towards the upside (like some sort of rope pulling game). This trading style often requires stops to be tighter with some profit-to-risk ratio greater than 1.5 (with usually fixed targets). Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, 4H chart)Third possibility: position trading. This is probably the most passive trading style, as it would suit everyone’s busy timetable (and be the most rewarding). This is usually the one we privilege at Sunshine Profits since it allows us to provide trade projections some time in advance for our patient sniper traders to lock in their trading targets and take sufficient time to assess the associated risk with each projection as part of a full trade plan (or flying map).Let’s zoom out again to spot our first target getting hit today on a daily chart so we can have an overall view of the next target to be locked in while lifting our stop to breakeven (entry), previous swing low ($4.450) or using an Average True Range (ATR) ratio as some of you may like to use:Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)That’s all folks for today. Have a great weekend!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Gold Likes Recessions - Could High Interest Rates Lead to One?

Gold Likes Recessions - Could High Interest Rates Lead to One?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 11.03.2022 16:52
We live in uncertain times, but one thing is (almost) certain: the Fed’s tightening cycle will be followed by an economic slowdown – if not worse.There are many regularities in nature. After winter comes spring. After night comes day. After the Fed’s tightening cycle comes a recession. This month, the Fed will probably end quantitative easing and lift the federal funds rate. Will it trigger the next economic crisis?It’s, of course, more nuanced, but the basic mechanism remains quite simple. Cuts in interest rates, maintaining them at very low levels for a prolonged time, and asset purchases – in other words, easy monetary policy and cheap money – lead to excessive risk-taking, investors’ complacency, periods of booms, and price bubbles. On the contrary, interest rate hikes and withdrawal of liquidity from the markets – i.e., tightening of monetary policy – tend to trigger economic busts, bursts of asset bubbles, and recessions. This happens because the amount of risk, debt, and bad investments becomes simply too high.Historians lie, but history – never does. The chart below clearly confirms the relationship between the Fed’s tightening cycle and the state of the US economy. As one can see, generally, all recessions were preceded by interest rate hikes. For instance, in 1999-2000, the Fed lifted the interest rates by 175 basis points, causing the burst of the dot-com bubble. Another example: in the period between 2004 and 2006, the US central bank raised rates by 425 basis points, which led to the burst of the housing bubble and the Great Recession.One could argue that the 2020 economic plunge was caused not by US monetary policy but by the pandemic. However, the yield curve inverted in 2019 and the repo crisis forced the Fed to cut interest rates. Thus, the recession would probably have occurred anyway, although without the Great Lockdown, it wouldn’t be so deep.However, not all tightening cycles lead to recessions. For example, interest rate hikes in the first half of the 1960s, 1983-1984, or 1994-1995 didn’t cause economic slumps. Hence, a soft landing is theoretically possible, although it has previously proved hard to achieve. The last three cases of monetary policy tightening did lead to economic havoc.It goes without saying that high inflation won’t help the Fed engineer a soft landing. The key problem here is that the US central bank is between an inflationary rock and a hard landing. The Fed has to fight inflation, but it would require aggressive hikes that could slow down the economy or even trigger a recession. Another issue is that high inflation wreaks havoc on its own. Thus, even if untamed, it would lead to a recession anyway, putting the economy into stagflation. Please take a look at the chart below, which shows the history of US inflation.As one can see, each time the CPI annul rate peaked above 5%, it was either accompanied by or followed by a recession. The last such case was in 2008 during the global financial crisis, but the same happened in 1990, 1980, 1974, and 1970. It doesn’t bode well for the upcoming years.Some analysts argue that we are not experiencing a normal business cycle right now. In this view, the recovery from a pandemic crisis is rather similar to the postwar demobilization, so high inflation doesn’t necessarily imply overheating of the economy and could subsidy without an immediate recession. Of course, supply shortages and pent-up demand contributed to the current inflationary episode, but we shouldn’t forget about the role of the money supply. Given its surge, the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to curb inflation. However, this is exactly what can trigger a recession, given the high indebtedness and Wall Street’s addiction to cheap liquidity.What does it mean for the gold market? Well, the possibility that the Fed’s tightening cycle will lead to a recession is good news for the yellow metal, which shines the most during economic crises. Actually, recent gold’s resilience to rising bond yields may be explained by demand for gold as a hedge against the Fed’s mistake or failure to engineer a soft landing.Another bullish implication is that the Fed will have to ease its stance at some point in time when the hikes in interest rates bring an economic slowdown or stock market turbulence. If history teaches us anything, it is that the Fed always chickens out and ends up less hawkish than it promised. In other words, the US central bank cares much more about Wall Street than it’s ready to admit and probably much more than it cares about inflation.Having said that, the recession won’t start the next day after the rate liftoff. Economic indicators don’t signal an economic slump. The yield curve has been flattening, but it’s comfortably above negative territory. I know that the pandemic has condensed the last recession and economic rebound, but I don’t expect it anytime soon (at least rather not in 2022). It implies that gold will have to live this year without the support of the recession or strong expectations of it.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Intraday Market Analysis – The Canadian Dollar Recovers

Intraday Market Analysis – The Canadian Dollar Recovers

Jing Ren Jing Ren 14.03.2022 07:50
USDCAD struggles for supportThe Canadian dollar surged after a sharp drop in February’s unemployment rate. A break above the recent peak at 1.2875 has consolidated the US dollar’s lead.The RSI’s repeatedly overbought condition has led to some profit-taking. As the indicator swung into the oversold area, a pullback attracted bargain hunters in the demand zone between 61.8% (1.2700) Fibonacci retracement level and 1.2680.A rally above 1.2840 may resume the rally and send the pair to December’s high at 1.2960.EURJPY attempts reversalThe euro continues upward after the ECB left the door open to an interest rate hike. A pop above 128.60 has prompted sellers to reconsider their bets.However, traders can expect strong bearish pressure in the supply zone around 129.20. This level overlays with the 20-day moving average, making it a congestion area.An overbought RSI has tempered the initial comeback and the bulls need to consolidate their positions before they could push further. 126.50 is key support and 124.40 a second line of defense to keep the pair afloat.UK 100 bounces backThe FTSE 100 recoups losses as Britain’s GDP beat expectations in January. The rebound has gained traction after it broke above 7200.After a brief pause, the index met buying interest over 7050 and a bullish MA cross indicates an acceleration to the upside. Sentiment remains cautious from the daily chart perspective though and the bears could be waiting to sell into strength.7450 at the origin of the latest sell-off is a major hurdle as its breach could turn the mood around. Otherwise, there could be a revision of 6800 soon.
Credit Markets Keeps Downward Move, S&P 500 (SPX) Trades Lower Than Usual, Bitcoin (BTC) Price Is... Quite Stable (Sic!)

Credit Markets Keeps Downward Move, S&P 500 (SPX) Trades Lower Than Usual, Bitcoin (BTC) Price Is... Quite Stable (Sic!)

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 14.03.2022 13:09
S&P 500 bulls again missed the opportunity, and credit markets likewise. Not even the virtual certainty of only 25bp hike in Mar is providing much relief to the credit markets. Given that the real economy is considerably slowing down and that recession looks arriving before Q2 ends, the markets continue forcing higher rates (reflecting inflation). In a risk-on environment, value and cyclicals such as financials would be reacting positively, but that‘s not the case right now. At the same time, equal weighted S&P 500 (that‘s RSP) hasn‘t yet broken below its horizontal support above $145, meaning its posture isn‘t as bad as in the S&P 500. Should it however give, we‘re going considerably below 4,000. That‘s why today‘s article is titled hanging by a thread. Precious metals and commodities continue consolidating, and the least volatile appreciation opportunity presents the red metal. And it‘s not only about copper – crude oil market is going through supply realignment, and demand is not yet being destroyed on a massive scale. Coupled with the long-term underinvestment in exploration and drilling (US is no longer such a key producer as was the case in 2019), crude oil prices would continue rising on fundamentals, meaning the appreciation pace of Feb-Mar would slow down. Precious metals would have it easy next as the Fed is bound to be forced to make a U-turn in this very short tightening cycle (they didn‘t get far at all, and inflation expectations have in my view become unanchored already). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bears won the day, and Nasdaq remains in a sorry state. 4,160s are the line in the sand, breaking which would accelerate the downswing. Inflation is cutting into the earnings, and stocks aren‘t going to like the coming Fed‘s message. Credit Markets HYG didn‘t keep at least stable – the pressure in the credit markets is ongoing, and the stock market bulls don‘t have much to rejoice over here. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals downswings are being bought, and are shallow. The sellers are running out of steam, and the opportunity to go somewhat higher next, is approaching. Crude Oil Crude oil is stabilizing, but it may take some time before the upswing continues with renewed vigor. As for modest extension of gains, we won‘t be disappointed. Copper Copper had one more day of fake weakness, but the lost gains of Friday would be made up for next – and given no speculative fever here to speak of, it would have as good lasting power as precious metals. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos remain undecided, but indicate a little breathing room, at least for today. Still, I wouldn‘t call it as risk-on constellation throughout the markets. Summary S&P 500 is getting in a precarious position, but the internals aren‘t (yet) a screaming sell. Credit markets continue leading lower, and the risk-off positioning is impossible to miss. Not even financials are able to take the cue, and rise. It‘s that the rise in yields mirrors the ingrained inflation, and just how entrenched it‘s becoming. No surprise if you were listening to me one year ago – the Fed‘s manouevering room got progressively smaller, and the table is set for the 2H 2022 inflation respite (think 5-6% year end on account of recessionary undercurrents) to be superseded with even higher inflation in 2023, because the Fed would be forced later this year to turn back to easing. Long live the precious metals and commodities super bulls! Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Are Current Market Cycles Similar To The GFC Of 2007–2009?

Are Current Market Cycles Similar To The GFC Of 2007–2009?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 14.03.2022 16:14
Soaring real estate, rising volatility, surging commodities and slumping stocks - Sound Familiar?This past week marked the 13th anniversary of the bottom of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007-2009. The March 6, 2009 stock market low for the S&P 500 marked a staggering overall value loss of 51.9%.The GFC of 2007-09 resulted from excessive risk-taking by global financial institutions, which resulted in the bursting of the housing market bubble. This, in turn, led to a vast collapse of mortgage-back securities resulting in a dramatic worldwide financial reset.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! IS HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF?The following graph shows us that precious metals and energy outperform the stock market as the ‘Bull’ cycle reaches its maturity. The stock market is always the first to lead, the second being the economy, and the third, being the commodity markets. But history has shown that commodity markets can move up substantially as the stock market ‘Bull’ runs out of steam.The current commodities rally in Gold began August 2021, Crude Oil April 2020, and Wheat in January 2022. Interestingly we started seeing capital outflows in the SPY-SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF in early January 2022, and the DRN-Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3x Shares ETF starting back in late December 2021.LET’S SEE WHAT HAPPENED TO THE STOCK AND COMMODITY MARKETS IN 2007-2008SPY - SPDR S&P 500 TRUST ETFFrom August 17, 2007 to July 3, 2008: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust depreciated -20.12%The State Street Corporation designed SPY for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Stock Index. According to State Street’s website www.ssga.com, the Benchmark, the S&P 500 Index, comprises selected stocks from five hundred (500) issuers, all of which are listed on national stock exchanges and span over approximately 24 separate industry groups.DBC – INVESCO DB COMMODITY INDEX TRACING FUND ETFFrom August 17 2007 to July 3, 2008: Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund appreciated +96.81%Invesco designed DBC for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in commodity futures. According to Invesco’s website www.invesco.com, the Index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on 14 of the most heavily traded and important physical commodities in the world.BE ALERT: THE US FEDERAL RESERVE POLICY MEETING IS THIS WEEK!In February, the inflation rate rose to 7.9% as food and energy costs pushed prices to their highest level in more than 40 years. If we exclude food and energy, core inflation still rose 6.4%, which was the highest since August 1982. Gasoline, groceries, and housing were the most significant contributors to the CPI gain. The consumer price index is the price of a weighted average market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households.The FED was expected to raise interest rates by as much as 50 basis points at its policy meeting this week, March 15-16. However, given the recent world events of the Russia – Ukraine war in Europe, the FED may decide to be more cautious and raise rates by only 25 basis points.HOW WILL RISING INTEREST RATES AFFECT THE STOCK MARKET?As interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing becomes more expensive. Rising interest rates tend to affect the market immediately, while it may take about 9-12 months for the rest of the economy to see any widespread impact. Higher interest rates are generally negative for stocks, with the exception of the financial sector.WILL RISING INTEREST RATES BURST OUR HOUSING BUBBLE?It is too soon to tell exactly what the impact of rising interest rates will be regarding housing. It is worth noting that in a thriving economy, consumers continue buying. However, in our current economy, where the consumers' monthly payment is not keeping up with the price of gasoline and food, it is more likely to experience a leveling off of residential prices or even the risk of a 2007-2009 repeat of price depreciation.THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTSIZED GAINS IN A BEAR MARKET ARE 7X GREATER THAN A BULL MARKET!The average bull market lasts 2.7 years. From the March low of 2009, the current bull market has established a new record as the longest-running bull market at 12 years and nine months. The average bear market lasts just under ten months, while a few have lasted for several years. It is worth noting that bear markets tend to fall 7x faster than bull markets go up. Bear markets also reflect elevated levels of volatility and investor emotions which contribute significantly to the velocity of the market drop.WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE CURRENT MARKET TRENDS?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24 months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe we are seeing the markets beginning to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into metals, commodities, and other safe havens.IT'S TIME TO GET PREPARED FOR THE COMING STORM; UNDERSTAND HOW TO NAVIGATE THESE TYPES OF MARKETS!I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Is It Time for Brent and WTI Crude Oil Futures to Correct Lower?

Is It Time for Brent and WTI Crude Oil Futures to Correct Lower?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 14.03.2022 17:05
Crude oil prices are slipping from their recent highest levels. Where could we see the next support located?Oil prices fell sharply on Monday – extending last week’s decline – driven by potential progress in Ukraine-Russia talks.India is considering taking advantage of Russia's discounted crude oil and other commodities offers by settling transactions through the rupee/ruble payment system. Meanwhile, on the eastern side, there is a rush to replace the Russian barrels in the west, but immediate availability is limited.In addition, some fears that OPEC+ countries might not be able to easily increase supply remain, even though the UAE said last week that OPEC+ could double the output to the market (about 800,000 bpd) very quickly. However, this sounds very challenging since OPEC+ countries have already struggled to bring in 400,000 bbd.On the Asian side, a slowdown in demand could have been seen as 17 million residents in Shenzhen, the technological centre of southern China, were locked down on Sunday after reports of epidemic outbreaks linked to the neighbouring territory of Hong Kong, where the Omicron strain seems to have spread. There are growing fears that other cities could follow suit to comply with the country's strict zero-COVID policy, adopted by the government of the People's Republic of China.WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
EURUSD Has Climbed A Bit, DAX (GER40) Has Moved Up Slightly, AUDUSD Chart Shows A Small Downtrend

EURUSD Has Climbed A Bit, DAX (GER40) Has Moved Up Slightly, AUDUSD Chart Shows A Small Downtrend

Jing Ren Jing Ren 15.03.2022 08:02
EURUSD struggles to rebound The US dollar bounces across the board as the Fed may possibly raise interest rates on Wednesday. The pair found support near May 2020’s lows around 1.0800. The RSI’s oversold condition on the daily chart prompted the bears to take some chips off the table, alleviating the pressure. 1.1110 is a fresh resistance and its breach could lift offers to 1.1270. In fact, this could turn sentiment around in the short term. Failing that, a break below 1.0830 could trigger a new round of sell-off towards March 2020’s lows near 1.0650. AUDUSD lacks support The Australian dollar slipped after dovish RBA minutes. The pair continues to pull back from its recent top at 0.7430. A drop below the demand zone at 0.7250 further puts the bulls on the defensive. The former support has turned into a resistance level. 0.7170 at the origin of a previous breakout is key support. An oversold RSI may raise buyers’ interest in this congestion area. A deeper correction could invalidate the recent rebound and send the Aussie to the daily support at 0.7090. GER 40 attempts to rebound The Dax 40 edges higher as Russia and Ukraine hold a fourth round of talks. The index bounced off the demand zone (12500) from the daily chart, a sign that price action could be stabilizing. The supply zone around the psychological level of 14000 sits next to the 20-day moving average, making it an important hurdle. A tentative breakout may have prompted sellers to cover. 14900 would be the target if the rebound gains momentum. On the downside, 13300 is fresh support, and 12720 is the second line of defense.
Have Stocks Reached the Bottom?

Have Stocks Reached the Bottom?

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 15.03.2022 14:44
  The S&P 500 index extended its Friday’s decline yesterday, but it remained within a week-long volatile consolidation. Is this a medium-term bottoming pattern? The broad stock market index lost 0.74% on Monday, Mar. 14, after its Friday’s decline of 1.3%. The market bounced from the short-term resistance level of 4,300 and it extended a volatile consolidation following the early March sell-off from the 4,400 level. Last week on Tuesday it reached the local low of 4,157.87 and then we’ve seen a rebound to the 4,300 level. Yesterday the S&P 500 came back below the 4,200 level again. The market is closer to the Feb. 24 local low of 4,114.65. It was 704 points or 14.6% below the January 4 record high of 4,818.62 then. There’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.5% higher following lower than expected Producer Price Index release. The market will be waiting for the important tomorrow’s FOMC Statement release, and we may see some further consolidation. The nearest important resistance level is now at around 4,200. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,100-4,150. The S&P 500 index continues to trade slightly above the recently broken downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Trades Along the Previous Lows Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. Today it is bouncing from the 4,140 level. It’s a support level marked by the previous local low. The support level is also at 4,100. We are still maintaining our long position, as we are expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index will likely bounce this morning following better-than-expected producers’ inflation data release. The market may extend its volatile consolidation and we may see more uncertainty, as investors will be waiting for the Wednesday’s FOMC Statement release. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index will likely bounce this morning, but we may see some more short-term uncertainty. We are maintaining our long position (opened on Feb. 22). We are still expecting an upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
(XAUUSD) Price Of Gold And Price Of Silver (XAGUSD) Decreases...

(XAUUSD) Price Of Gold And Price Of Silver (XAGUSD) Decreases...

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 15.03.2022 14:12
  In line with predictions, gold is ceasing to benefit from war-fueled uncertainty. Meanwhile, silver faked another breakout. Could it be more bearish?  Last week’s powerful, huge-volume reversal in gold was likely to be followed by declines. It was – but that’s just the beginning. Yesterday’s $24 decline might seem significant on a day-to-day basis, but compared to last week’s enormous reversal, it’s really tiny. The modest extent of yesterday’s decline is by no means bullish – my emphasis on the small size of the decline so far should be viewed as an indication that much more is likely on the horizon. Besides, gold was down by about $20 in today’s pre-market trading. As I wrote yesterday, gold’s breakout above $2,000 was officially invalidated, and given the weekly reversal, it seems that the war-uncertainty-based rally is over. The decisive move below 70 in the RSI indicator after it was trading above 70 clearly confirms that the top is already behind us. Just like it was in 2020 and 2021 when similar things happened, history appears to have rhymed. On Friday, I wrote the following: Gold’s move of $0.40 (yes, forty cents) above $2,000 is not important as the breakout above this level was just invalidated the previous day. Technically, this is another attempt to break above this level, which is likely to be invalidated based on what we see in today’s pre-market trading. The fact that I would like to emphasize today is that this kind of small rebound after the initial slide is common and perfectly normal for gold. We saw exactly the same thing right after gold’s 2020 top and after its 2021 top, and also two more times in 2021 (as marked on the above chart). This means that yesterday’s upswing is not particularly bullish. It’s a normal post-top reaction. Lower gold values are to be expected. Silver declined yesterday, and it closed the day below its late-2021 high. In other words, the breakout above this level was invalidated. This is a strong bearish confirmation from the white metal. The white metal just invalidated the move above its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. That’s bearish on its own, but let’s keep in mind that it happened right after silver outperformed gold. Last Tuesday, the GDXJ ETF was up by less than 1%, gold was up by 2.37%, and silver was up by 4.57%. Silver’s outperformance and miners’ underperformance is what we tend to see right at the tops. That’s exactly what it was – a top. Silver declined profoundly, and the attempt to break above its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level will soon be just a distant (in terms of price) memory. On a medium-term basis, silver was simply weak relative to gold, but we saw short-term outperformance. In short, that was and continues to be bearish. As far as silver’s big picture is concerned, please note that it also provides us with a confirmation of the analogy between 2012 and now. At the turn of the year in 2011/2012, there was a cyclical turning point in silver, and we saw a sizable decline in silver shortly thereafter. The same happened in 2021, after silver’s cyclical turning point. Back in 2012, silver declined more or less to its previous lows and then rallied back up, but it didn’t reach its previous top. It more or less rallied to its 50-week moving average and then by about the same amount before topping. Recently, we saw exactly the same thing. After the initial decline, silver bottomed close to its previous lows, and most recently it rallied to its 50-week moving average and then by about the same amount before topping – below the previous high. Thus, the situation is just like what it was during the 2012 top in all three key components of the precious metals sector: gold, silver, and mining stocks. We have a situation in the general stock market that points to an even quicker slide than what we saw in 2012-2013. If stocks slide sharply and significantly just like in 2008, then the same fate may await the precious metals sector – just like in 2008. In this case, silver and mining stocks (in particular, junior mining stocks) would be likely to fall in a spectacular manner. All the above was confirmed by silver’s invalidation of its breakout above the late-2021 high. Not only has the medium-term outlook been bearish, but now the short-term outlook for silver is bearish too. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
XAUUSD Decreases, Russia-Ukraine Conflict Remains, Fed Decides

XAUUSD Decreases, Russia-Ukraine Conflict Remains, Fed Decides

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 15.03.2022 14:13
  It seems that the stalemate in Ukraine has slowed down gold's bold movements. Will the Fed's decision on interest rates revive them again?  The tragedy continues. As United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said yesterday, “Ukraine is on fire and being decimated before the eyes of the world.” There have already been 1,663 civilian casualties since the Russian invasion began. What is comforting in this situation is that Russian troops have made almost no advance in recent days (although there has been some progress in southern Ukraine). They are attempting to envelop Ukrainian forces in the east of the country as they advance from the direction of Kharkiv in the north and Mariupol in the south, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to offer staunch resistance across the country. So, it seems that there is a kind of stalemate. The Russians don’t have enough forces to break decisively through the Ukrainian defense, while Ukraine’s army doesn’t have enough troops to launch an effective counteroffensive and get rid of the occupiers. Now, the key question is: in whose favor is time working? On the one hand, Russia is mobilizing fighters from its large country, but also from Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh. The invaders continue indiscriminate shelling and air attacks that cause widespread destruction among civilian population as well. On the other hand, each day Russian army suffers heavy losses, while Ukraine is getting new weapons from the West.   Implications for Gold How is gold performing during the war? As the chart below shows, the recent stabilization of the military situation in Ukraine has been negative for the yellow metal. The price of gold slid from its early March peak of $2,039 to $1,954 one week later (and today, the price is further declining). However, please note that gold makes higher highs and higher lows, so the outlook remains rather positive, although corrections are possible. On the other hand, gold’s slide despite the ongoing war and a surge in inflation could be a little disturbing. However, the reason for the decline is simple. It seems that the uncertainty reached its peak last week and has eased since then. As the chart below shows, the CBOE volatility index, also called a fear index, has retreated from its recent peak. The Russian troops have made almost no progress, the most severe response of the West is probably behind us, and the world hasn’t sunk into nuclear war. Meanwhile, the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are taking place, offering some hope for a relatively quick end to the war. As I wrote last week, “there might be periods of consolidation and even corrections if the conflict de-escalates or ends.” The anticipation of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting could also contribute to the slide in gold prices. However, the chart above also shows that credit spreads, another measure of risk perception, have continued to widen in recent days. Other fundamental factors also remain supportive of gold prices. Let’s take, for instance, inflation. As the chart below shows, the annual CPI rate has soared from 7.5% in January to 7.9% in February, the largest move since January 1982. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, surged from 6.0% to 6.4% last month, also the highest reading in forty years. The war in Ukraine can only add to the inflationary pressure. Prices of oil and other commodities have already soared. The supply chains got another blow. The US Congress is expanding its spending again to help Ukraine. Thus, the inflation peak would likely occur later than previously thought. High inflation may become more embedded, which increases the odds of stagflation. All these factors seem to be fundamentally positive for gold prices. There is one “but”. The continuous surge in inflation could prompt monetary hawks to take more decisive actions. Tomorrow, the FOMC will announce its decision on interest rates, and it will probably hike the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. The hawkish Fed could be bearish for gold prices. Having said that, historically, the Fed’s tightening cycle has been beneficial to the yellow metal when accompanied by high inflation. Last time, the price of gold bottomed out around the liftoff. Another issue is that, because of the war in Ukraine, the Fed could adopt a more dovish stance and lift interest rates in a more gradual way, which could be supportive of gold prices. The military situation in Ukraine and tomorrow’s FOMC meeting could be crucial for gold’s path in the near future. The hike in interest rates is already priced in, but the fresh dot-plot and Powell’s press conference could bring us some unexpected changes in US monetary policy. Stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
S&P 500, Crude Oil And Credit Markets Decrease... Only Bitcoin Price Remains "The Same"

S&P 500, Crude Oil And Credit Markets Decrease... Only Bitcoin Price Remains "The Same"

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 15.03.2022 16:03
S&P 500 decline was led by tech, and made possible by credit markets‘ plunge. The 4,160s held on a closing basis, and unless the bulls clear this area pretty fast today, this key support would come under pressure once again over the nearest days. Interestingly, the dollar barely moved, but looking at the daily sea of red across commodities, the greenback would follow these to the downside. Not that real assets including precious metals would be reversing on a lasting basis here – the markets are content that especially black gold keeps flowing at whatever price, to whatever buyer(s) willing to clinch the deal. Sure, it‘s exerting downward pressure on the commodity, but I‘m looking for the extraordinary weakness to be reversed, regardless of: (…) not even the virtual certainty of only 25bp hike in Mar is providing much relief to the credit markets. Given that the real economy is considerably slowing down and that recession looks arriving before Q2 ends, the markets continue forcing higher rates (reflecting inflation). The rising tide of fundamentals constellation favoring higher real asset prices, would continue kicking in, especially when the markets sense a more profound Fed turn than we saw lately with the 50bp into 25bp for Mar FOMC. Make no mistake, the inflation horse has left the barn well over a year ago, and doesn‘t intend to come back or be tamed. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bears won the day, and are likely to regroup next – yes, that doesn‘t rule out a modest upswing that would then fizzle out. Credit Markets HYG woes continue, and credit markets keep raising rates for the Fed. The bears continue having the upper hand. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals haven‘t found the short-term bottom, but it pays to remember that they are often trading subdued before the Fed days. This is no exception, and I‘m fully looking for gold and silver to regain initiative following the cautious Fed tone. Crude Oil Crude oil didn‘t keep above $105, but would revert there in spite of the stagflationary environment (already devouring Europe). With more clarity in the various oil benchmarks, black gold would continue rising over the coming weeks. Copper Copper weakness is another short-term oddity, which I am looking for to be reversed in the FOMC‘s wake. Volume had encouragingly risen yesterday, so I‘m looking for a solid close to the week. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are very modestly turning higher, but I‘m not expecting too much of a run next. As stated yesterday, I wouldn‘t call it as risk-on constellation throughout the markets. Summary S&P 500 got into that precarious position (4,160s) yesterday, but managed to hold above. Given the usual Fed days trading pattern, stocks are likely to bounce a little before the pronouncements are made – only to continue drifting lower in their wake. That‘s valid for the central bank not making the U-turn towards easing again, which is what I‘m expecting to happen in the latter half of this year. Inflation would continue biting, and that means stocks are mired in a giant trading range a la the 1970s. Commodities and precious metals would continue building a base here, only to launch higher in response to (surprise, surprise) stubborn inflation. After all, where else to hide in during stagflations? Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
🔥 SHIBA Volatile Move Ahead: Triangle Analysis

(SHIB) Shiba Inu Price - How Will Be The Altcoin Affected?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 15.03.2022 16:27
Shiba Inu price action sees price pressure against the technical triangle base at $0.00002140. SHIB price action set to test the low of its existence. As global markets threaten to drop into a recession, investors will flee cryptocurrencies in the coming days. Shiba Inu (SHIB) price action is on the cusp of breaking out of a bearish triangle that has dictated price action over the past two months. With a break to the downside, room opens up for an almost 70% drop towards the lowest levels in its existence as investors flee cryptocurrencies overall, following more and more reports that global markets are going into recession. With this dire projection in mind, expect to see further bleeding of SHIB price action as it falls back to $0.00000655. Shiba Inu price action bleeds as investors flee from recession fears Shiba Inu price action is seeing a massive squeeze building from bears trying to break out of the bearish triangle as more and more headwinds combine each day. The situation in Ukraine and new lockdowns in China are spelling supply chain issues again, and banks are starting to use the word recession more often in their reports about the future. This weighs on investor sentiment as cryptocurrencies are put on the backfoot and witness a daily outflow of cash from investors pulling the plug on their positions. SHIB price looks to break below $0.00002140 any moment now, with considerable momentum behind it from the death cross with the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) below the 200-day SMA. Next to that, the Relative Strength Index is nowhere near being oversold, opening the door for short sellers to pick up some more gains in the downtrend. Expect to see a sharp drop in the coming days towards $0.00001000, breaking the monthly S1 and S2 support levels along the way, only to find a floor near $0.00000607, which is near the lowest level in SHIB’s. SHIB/USD daily chart Although red flags are popping up all over financial markets, investors could still be working on a turnaround in an attempt to look beyond the current crisis at hand. If central banks can steer economies out of this dire situation, expect investors to start buying into cryptocurrencies to take advantage of lucrative discounts. This could spill into a turnaround and see price action first pop back above $0.00002500, breaking the bearish 55-day SMA and hitting $0.00002787, above the 28.6% Fibonacci level.
USDCHF Nears 0.940 Levels, EURGBP Keeps Its "Stability", USOIL Is Like A Benchmark For Geopolitical Situation

USDCHF Nears 0.940 Levels, EURGBP Keeps Its "Stability", USOIL Is Like A Benchmark For Geopolitical Situation

Jing Ren Jing Ren 16.03.2022 08:11
USDCHF breaks major resistance The US dollar continues upward as the Fed is set to increase its interest rates by 25bp. The rally sped up after it cleared the daily resistance at 0.9360. The bullish breakout may have ended a 9-month long consolidation from the daily chart perspective. The rising trendline confirms the optimism and acts as an immediate support. Solid momentum could propel the greenback to April 2021’s high at 0.9470. Buyers may see a pullback as an opportunity to jump in. 0.9330 is the closest support should this happen. EURGBP tests key resistance The sterling found support after a drop in Britain’s unemployment rate in January. A break above the daily resistance at 0.8400 has prompted sellers to cover, easing the downward pressure. Sentiment remains downbeat unless buyers push the single currency past 0.8475. In turn, this could pave the way for a reversal in the weeks to come. Otherwise, the bears might double down and drive the euro back into its downtrend. A fall below 0.8360 would force early bulls to liquidate and trigger a sell-off to 0.8280. USOIL drops towards key support WTI crude falls back over a new round of ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine. Previously, a bearish RSI divergence indicated a loss of momentum as the price went parabolic. Then a steep fall below 107.00 was a sign of liquidation. Buyers continue to unwind their positions as the price slides back to its pre-war level. The psychological level of 90.00 is an important support on the daily chart. An oversold RSI may attract buying interest in this demand zone. 105.00 is the first resistance before buyers could regain control.
Binance Academy: Sandbox (SAND), Decentraland (MANA) ENJIN (ENJ) And Bloktopia (BLOK) Explained

Crypto Prices: Bitcoin (BTC) Gained 1.4%, ETH Increased By 3.1%, Polkadot (DOT) Went Up By 4.5% And Terra Decreased (-6%)

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 16.03.2022 08:30
BTC added 1.4% over the past day to $39.3K. Attempts to develop an offensive ran into a selling wall. The most important line of defense in the first cryptocurrency at the 38.0K area is still more confident withstanding all bear attacks. Ethereum added 3.1% to $2.6K in 24 hours. Other leading altcoins range from a 6% decline (Terra) to a 4.5% rise (Polkadot). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 1.4%, to $1.75 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index lost 0.1 percentage points to 42.6%. Cryptocurrency fear and greed index added 3 points to 24, although it remains in the territory of "extreme fear". The FxPro Analyst Team mentioned that during the Asian session, there was a sharp jump in the rate from $39.2K to $41.7K, followed by an almost equally rapid pullback to the area below $39.0K. Stop orders were triggered in the morning low-liquid market, but it is clear that the selling pressure remains huge. In fact, since February 10, the rises in the Bitcoin rate have become less and less long and end at ever lower levels. The reason for the jump in prices in early trading in Asia was the statements of official Beijing on support for the markets, which caused a rally in the shares of the region. However, Bitcoin frankly ignored the drawdown of Asian stocks in recent days, so it quickly returned to its place, because other factors have become its key drivers in recent days. Meanwhile, Glassnode believes that bitcoin investors may face a final capitulation. This is indicated by the high proportion of "unprofitable" coins among short-term holders. At the same time, the uncertainty associated with geopolitics and the Fed rate weakened the accumulation of BTC by hodlers and caused an increase in sales on their part.
Snowball‘s Chance in Hell

Snowball‘s Chance in Hell

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 16.03.2022 15:40
S&P 500 is turning around, and odds are that would be so till the FOMC later today. The pressure on Powell to be really dovish, is on. I‘m looking for a lot of uncerrtainty and flexibility introduction, and much less concrete rate hikes talk that wasn‘t sufficient to crush inflation when the going was relatively good, by the way.As stated yesterday:(…) The rising tide of fundamentals constellation favoring higher real asset prices, would continue kicking in, especially when the markets sense a more profound Fed turn than we saw lately with the 50bp into 25bp for Mar FOMC. Make no mistake, the inflation horse has left the barn well over a year ago, and doesn‘t intend to come back or be tamed.Not that real assets including precious metals would be reversing on a lasting basis here – the markets are content that especially black gold keeps flowing at whatever price, to whatever buyer(s) willing to clinch the deal. Sure, it‘s exerting downward pressure on the commodity, but I‘m looking for the extraordinary weakness to be reversed.We‘re seeing such a reversal in commodities already, and precious metals have a „habit“ of joining around the press conference. Yesterday‘s performance of miners and copper, provides good enough a hint.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 upswing looks like it can go on for a while. Interestingly, it was accompanied by oil stocks declining – have we seen THE risk-on turn? This looks to be a temporary reprieve unless the Fed really overdelivers in dovishness.Credit MarketsHYG is catching some bid, and credit markets are somewhat supporting the risk-on turn. Yields though don‘t look to have put in a top just yet, which means the stock market bears would return over the coming days.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are looking very attractive, and the short-term bottom appears at hand – this is the way they often trade before the Fed. I‘m fully looking for gold and silver to regain initiative following the cautious and dovish Fed tone.Crude OilCrude oil didn‘t test the 50-day moving average, and I would expect the bulls to step in here – after all, the Fed can‘t print oil, and when they go dovish, the economy just doesn‘t crash immediately...CopperCopper is refusing to decline, and the odd short-term weakness would be reversed – and the same goes for broader commodities, which have been the subject of my recent tweet.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos aren‘t fully risk-on, but cautiously giving the bulls benefit of the doubt. Not without a pinch of salt, though.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are on the (short-term) run, and definitely need more fuel from the Fed. Significant dovish turn – they would get some, but it wouldn‘t be probably enough to carry risk-on trades through the weekend. The upswing is likely to stall before that, and commodities with precious metals would catch a fresh bid already today. This would be coupled with the dollar not making any kind of upside progress to speak of. The true Fed turn towards easing is though far away still (more than a few months away) – the real asset trades are about patience and tide working in the buyers favor. The yield curve remains flat as a pancake, and more stagflation talk isn‘t too far...Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Bitcoin price undergoes sharp fade as bulls storm out of the gate

Bitcoin price undergoes sharp fade as bulls storm out of the gate

FXStreet News FXStreet News 16.03.2022 16:28
Bitcoin price action jumped 7% but fell back sharply in European trading.BTC price action looks to be set to jump above $41,756.61 once the US session kicks in.Expect to see a further continuation of this price jump throughout the week as long as positive signals come from the ongoing talks in Russia.Bitcoin (BTC) price action is performing a countercyclical move this morning as Asian bulls storm out of the gate on positive-speak from the Chinese government. From now on into the European session, gains are still present but have faded slightly. Expect to see a subsequent round of wins coming in during the US session and going further into this week as long as positive signals are communicated independently from both sides in Ukraine and Russia peace talks.Bitcoin price sees bulls swimming against the tideBitcoin price action seems to have awakened many investors who fell asleep staring at their television screen for the past three weeks on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As they pulled out their money and went long cash, cryptocurrencies dried up a bit and were left to the mercy of bears. Today a few bears will be licking their wounds as bulls have gone in for a push higher as more positive signals come from both Ukraine and Russia on talks, and markets are getting used to the war headlines as everything looks to be priced in. BTC price action technically got rejected to the upside at $41,756.61, the base of a bearish triangle that formed a few weeks ago. Expect this fade in early trading to provide a window of opportunity for European and American bulls to join the rally and ramp up the price above $41,756.61, where a close above will be key this evening. If trading can start on Thursday with an opening price above $41,756.61, expect to see another leg higher by tomorrow evening, near $44,088.73 and even $45,261.84 by Friday.BTC/USD daily chartThe risk could be that the current fade, after the rejection at $41,756.61, could topple into a deeper loss if bears push the price below the opening price. This would trigger panic amongst bulls that got in and will have them remember the same scenario that happened exactly one week ago on Wednesday with a false breakout and a full paring back, and even eking out further losses the day after. Expect bulls to exit instantly once BTC price action prints red numbers, and this to spiral into a setback for BTC price towards $38,703.32 or even $36,709.19.
Oil Prices Keep Falling. Is It Time to Get Long on Black Gold?

Oil Prices Keep Falling. Is It Time to Get Long on Black Gold?

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 16.03.2022 16:43
  Crude oil continues to decline due to lowered demand, and the petrodollar seems threatened, losing interest. What is the best strategy to take now?  Oil prices kept falling this week, driven by potential progress in Ukraine-Russia talks and a potential slowdown in the Giant Panda’s (China) economic growth due to epidemic lockdowns in some regions where a surge of Omicron was observed. As I mentioned in my previous article, India considers getting Russian crude oil supplies and other commodities at a reduced price by settling transactions through a rupee/rouble payment system. Meanwhile, we keep getting rumors – notably reported by The Wall Street Journal – that Saudi Arabia and China are also currently discussing pricing some Saudi oil exports directly in yuan. The Chinese are actively seeking to dethrone the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and this latest development suggests that the petrodollar is now under threat. US Dollar Currency Index (DXY) CFD (daily chart) The recent correction in crude oil, happening just seven days after reaching its 14-year highs, might show some signs that the conflict in Ukraine will slow down consumption. On the other hand, if Iranian and Venezuelan barrels flooded the market, we could see crude oil, petroleum products, and distillates turning into new bear markets. WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Brent Crude Oil (BRNK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) That’s all folks for today – happy trading! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
XAUUSD After Fed Decision, NZDUSD And CADJPY Climbs

XAUUSD After Fed Decision, NZDUSD And CADJPY Climbs

Jing Ren Jing Ren 17.03.2022 08:15
XAUUSD stabilizes Gold struggles as the Fed maps out aggressive tightening. The precious metal has given up all its gains from the previous parabolic rise, which suggests a lack of commitment to support the rally. The price is testing the origin of the bullish breakout at 1907 which coincides with the 30-day moving average. An oversold RSI attracted some buying interest. 1961 is the hurdle ahead before a rebound could materialize. Further down, 1880 is key support on the daily chart and its breach could reverse the course in the weeks to come. NZDUSD attempts rebound The New Zealand dollar found support from a rebound in commodity prices. The pair saw solid bids in the demand zone around 0.6725 and right over the 30-day moving average. A bullish RSI divergence showed a deceleration in the pullback, which would have caught buyers’ attention in this congestion area. A close above 0.6800 has prompted short-term sellers to cover and leave the door open for a rebound. 0.6870 is the last major resistance and a bullish breakout could propel the kiwi past the recent peak at 0.6920. CADJPY breaks key resistance The Canadian dollar shot higher after February’s CPI beat expectations. A break above last October’s high at 93.00 could be an ongoing signal to end a 5-month long consolidation. The RSI’s double top in the overbought area may temporarily hold the bulls back. As sentiment turns overwhelmingly upbeat, buyers may be eager to jump in at a discounted price. The supply-turned-demand zone near 91.60 is an important level to safeguard the breakout. The psychological level of 94.00 could see resistance.
Here's your first look at Cyberpunk: Edgerunners! Coming to Netflix this September!

AMC Stock Price: AMC Entertainment spikes 8% on Wednesday

FXStreet News FXStreet News 17.03.2022 08:29
AMC stock gains on Tuesday as equities and growth stocks rally. More gains are likely on Wednesday for AMC shares as peace hopes rise for Ukraine. AMC Entertainment also saw increased attention from its investment in Hycroft Mining. AMC shares are up 8% to $15.65 as better prospects for peace in Ukraine seem to be lifting up the entire market. The Nasdaq has risen an optimistic 2.7% about one hour into Wednesday's session. Further positivity is in motion with the start of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee two-day meeting that is expected to usher in a 25 basis point rise in the fed funds rate. The rise in interest rates should slow this year's hike in inflation. This price action is certainly exciting for AMC apes, who have witnessed AMC stock drop to the low $13s earlier this week. AMC Entertainment did benefit in Tuesday's afternoon session from its acquisition of Hycroft Mining, but it seems the stock is gaining more interest on Wednesday for this buy. Now its acquisition target, HYMC, has seen its shares go in the opposite direction on Wednesday. HYMC stock is trading down 9% at $1.37 at the time of writing. AMC stock closed higher on Tuesday as investors took comfort from the continued collapse in oil prices and hoped for some form of peace in Ukraine. It was oil that was the big driver for equity markets, and growth stock, in particular, bounced hard as this sector had seen the bigger losses since the year began. It is hard to see guess whether this movie can be sustained long term though as yields have once again moved up. This should stall growth stocks. A peace deal would see further gains for all sectors, but then these may be capped if yields keep rising. The Fed decision later on Wednesday will give us more clarity on this. AMC Stock News The big news yesterday though for AMC apes was the investment in Hycroft Mining by AMC. This was right out of left field and remains a puzzling one to say the least. Hycroft Mining is a gold and silver miner with one mine in Nevada. The company has not turned a profit since 2013 and last November said it may need to raise capital to meet future financial obligations. The company also laid off over half of its workforce at the mine last November. This is a pretty high-risk investment and perhaps AMC and AMC apes are used to that. It was only a small outlet as CEO adam Aron alluded to. Nevertheless, the Hycroft Mining (HYMC) stock price soared as retail investors piled into the name. By the opening of the regular session on Tuesday, HYMC stock was trading nearly 100% higher, but it closed only 9% higher at $1.52 having traded up to $2.97. The reason for the dramatic turnaround was probably a bit of reality set into investors once they had a look at Hycroft Mining and its financial condition. The main reason was a Bloomberg report saying that Hycroft Mining could do a $500 million share sale by as early as next Tuesday. We understand the sale is ongoing and being led by B.Riley Securities. AMC Stock Forecast We were quite negative on this deal on Tuesday and remain so. At least it is not a big investment for AMC, but it still reads poorly. This will not endear AMC stock to further credibility in our view. CNBC carried out a report yesterday about the surge in price and volume trading in HYMC stock before the AMC announcement: "Small mining firm with troubled history saw big spikes in stock price, trading volume ahead of AMC deal." Tuesday's move took AMC back up to our resistance level at $14.54, which was a key breakdown level. Below this and AMC remains bearish. Above $14.54 is neutral. We remain bearish on AMC with a target price of $8.95. AMC stock chart, daily Prior Update: AMC stock opened higher on Wednesday as the stock market remains on edge over the potential for some form of a peace deal in Ukraine. Oil prices falling sharply has also helped investor sentiment. AMC is currently trading at $14.77 for a gain of exactly 2% after 5 minutes of the regular session on Tuesday. Hycroft Mining (HYMC) stock is trading 4% lower at the same stage on Wednesday. Later we get the Fed interest rate decision which may hamper more progress from growth stocks but for now, it is full steam ahead. AMC is back among the top trending stocks on social media sites and interest seems high. $14.54 remains a key level for AMC to hold above if it wants to have put a bottom formation in place. Otherwise, it will return to the bearish trend and look to target $8.95 in our view.
China Stocks Go Up As There Might Be More Buybacks Coming

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Has Increased Significantly Yesterday

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 17.03.2022 13:08
THE SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX HAS DROPPED MORE THAN 40% FROM ITS PEAK IN JUST 2 ½ MONTHS! China Stocks: This morning bottom pickers around the globe are snatching up what they believe to be “bargain basement priced stocks” as the Hang Seng Index gained 9.1% during today’s March 16, 2022 trading session. It was the best day for the HSI since the 2008 financial crisis as the Chinese government pledged to support markets. Tensions are running high as Chinese nickel giant Tsingshan Holding Group, the world’s biggest producer of nickel used in stainless steel and electric-vehicle batteries was sitting on $8 billion in trading losses. According to the Wall Street Journal on March 9, 2022 “The London Metal Exchange suspended the nickel market early last Tuesday, the first time it had paused trading in a metal contract since the collapse of an international tin cartel in 1985. The decision followed a near doubling in prices over a few hours.” ETFs CAN BE USED SPECIFICALLY FOR SEASONS AND DIRECTION! According to Statista www.statista.com on January 11, 2022, the assets managed by ETFs globally amounted to approximately 7.74 trillion U.S. dollars in 2020. With more than 8,000 ETFs to choose from, you can find just about any flavor you need or are looking for. A Kondratieff Wave is a long-term economic cycle that consists of four sub-cycles or phases that are also known as Kondratieff Seasons. This theory was founded by Nikolai D. Kondratieff 1892-1938 (also spelled “Kondratiev”), a communist Russia-era economist who noticed agricultural commodities and metals experienced long-term cycles. The following graph illustrates both the inflation cycle as well as the best investments for each season. The Kondratieff Seasons act as a general guide and each investment has their own specific bull or bear market cycle. ETFs CAN OFFER YOU PROTECTION AND AGILITY IN A BULL OR BEAR MARKET!  The following ETFs are not a recommendation to buy or sell but simply an illustration to emphasize the utilization of selecting an ETF for capital protection or potential appreciation in either a rising ‘BULL’ or falling ‘BEAR’ market. YINN – DIREXION DAILY FTSE CHINA STOCKS BULL 3X SHARES ETF From February 17, 2021, to March 14, 2022 the Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3x Shares ETF ‘YINN’ lost -90.78%. Target Index: The FTSE China 50 Index (TXINOUNU) consists of the 50 largest and most liquid public Chinese companies currently trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as determined by the FTSE/Russell. Constituents in the Index are weighted based on total market value so that companies with larger total market values will generally have a greater weight in the Index. Index constituents are screened for liquidity, and weightings are capped to limit the concentration of any one stock in the Index. However, one cannot directly invest in an index. According to Direxion’s website www.direxion.com, Leveraged and Inverse ETFs pursue leveraged investment objectives, which means they are riskier than alternatives that do not use leverage. They seek daily goals and should not be expected to track the underlying index over periods longer than one day. They are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by investors who understand leverage risk and who actively manage their investments. YANG – DIREXION DAILY FTSE CHINA STOCKS BEAR 3X SHARES ETF From February 17, 2021, to March 14, 2022, The Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3x Shares ETF gained +418.38%. The rates of return shown for the YINN and YANG ETFs are not precise in that they are an estimation as displayed on a chart utilizing the charts measurement tool to emphasize my talking point. Sign up for my free Trading Newsletter to navigate potential major market opportunities! ALERT: THE US FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE WAS RASIED A QUARTER POINT! In February, the inflation rate rose to 7.9% as food and energy costs pushed prices to their highest level in more than 40 years. If we exclude food and energy, core inflation still rose 6.4%, which was still the highest since August 1982. Gasoline, groceries, and housing were the biggest contributors to the CPI gain. The FED was expected to raise interest rates by as much as 50 basis points. However, investors are speculating that due to the Russia – Ukraine war, the FED may be more cautious and raise rates by only 25 basis points. WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS with US and CHINA STOCKS? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24 months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe we are seeing the markets beginning to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into metals, commodities, and other safe-havens. UNDERSTAND HOW TO NAVIGATE OUR VOLATILE MARKETS! GET READY, GET SET, GO -I invite you to learn more about how my three ETF Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
How To Use A 'Collar' To Protect Your Portfolio Against Losses

How To Use A 'Collar' To Protect Your Portfolio Against Losses

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 17.03.2022 15:55
How can we protect our portfolio against losses when stocks are in a correction?  Or even if stocks are not currently in a correction?   There are many schools of thought on that. One way is to close positions and wait for more bullish times on the sidelines.  But that may not be the best choice for any number of reasons.Perhaps you are bullish on a stock position long-term and don’t want to sell it.  Maybe you already have a nice gain on your shares but are worried about a further decline.  Or perhaps there’s a dividend that you would like to continue to collect.  Simple Portfolio “Insurance”One relatively straightforward way to protect open stock positions is to buy Put protection.  Puts are option contracts that have an inverse correlation to price.   If the shares go down in price, the value of the Put will increase, thereby providing some offset to losses in the underlying stock.   The tradeoff is that Puts come at an out-of-pocket cost, and they expire.  There’s a cost to carry to have that “insurance” in place.Taking it a Step Further with a “Collar”A Collar can be an effective strategy to ensure against significant losses.  A common way to offset the cost of purchasing protective Puts is to implement a Collar strategy using options.Calls are option contracts that increase in value when the underlying shares go up in value.  We can sell Calls against our long stock and collect a premium.   That’s a simple Covered Call strategy.  But in itself, we get no downside protection on our shares other than the amount of the premium collected for selling the Calls.We can take that a step further by using the premium collected from selling the Calls to purchase protective Puts.  That’s known as a Collar.   And depending on the option strike prices and duration, we may be able to do that for a net credit and put a little extra profit in our pocket.Putting on a CollarSince options contracts control 100 shares per contract, the number of shares you want to protect determines the number of contracts.  Say you have 1,000 shares.  In that case, the Collar position would consist of 10 short Calls and 10 long Puts.  Here’s a P/L graph of a Collar on AAPL.  In this example, the stock is at $160.  A $170 Call is sold for $1.25, and a $140 Put is purchased at $1.00.  A Net credit of $0.25 is collected when the position is put on. Both options are 30 days to expiration (DTE). The TradeoffsWhile it’s tempting to think of the Collar as a way to get “free” Put protection, there are some tradeoffs.   By selling Calls, we are limiting our upside.  In the example above, we could have a $10 gain to the upside.  We’d also get to keep any net premiums collected, another $0.25 per share.  But because we’re obligated to provide shares at $170, we have capped our profit potential.The Collar also only gives us partial protection to the downside.  Options also have a limited life and expire. What Happens at Expiration?If the share price is above our Call strike price at expiration, we’re likely to have our shares “called away” – meaning we’ll be obligated to sell our shares at the strike price, $170 in this example.  But we could also extend the duration by rolling that Call out for additional credit.  As long as there are more than a few cents of time value in our short Call, we’re less likely to have it exercised even if it is in-the-money (ITM).   If our counterparty wanted to close their position, as long as there’s time value left in the option, they would be better off to sell their long Call rather than exercise it against us.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! If the share price is between our Call and Put strike prices at expiration, those options expire worthlessly, and we’re left with our stock as before.If the share price has dropped below our Put strike, we would want to either sell the Put or exercise it.  We could “put” the stock to our counterparty at $140 per share.  Alternately, we could sell the Put and continue to hold onto our shares.The best case is for the options to expire with the share price just below the Call strike price.  In that case, both the Puts and the Calls expire worthlessly, and we get to keep our shares.  We are then free to sell shares at a profit or keep them and apply another Collar further out in time.SummaryIf you own shares that you don’t want to sell, consider putting on a Collar using options to give you some downside protection.  A Collar entails selling calls against your shares and using the premium collected to purchase puts for downside protection.  The tradeoff is your upside is limited.  But you get to hold onto your shares to continue to collect dividends (if any), all while having long Puts in place for downside protection.Read On To Learn More About Options TradingEvery day on Options Trading Signals, we do defined risk trades that protect us from black swan events 24/7. Many may think that is what stop losses are for. Well, remember the markets are only open about 1/3 of the hours in a day. Therefore, a stop loss only protects you for 1/3 of each day. Stocks can gap up or down. With options, you are always protected because we do defined risk in a spread. We cover with multiple legs, which are always on once you own.   If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service. The head Options Trading Specialist Brian Benson, who has been trading options for almost 20 years, sends out real live trade alerts on actual trades, such as TSLA and NVDA, with real money. Ready to subscribe, click here:  TheTechnicalTraders.com.Enjoy your day!
S&P 500 (SPX) - It Looks Like Fed Decision Was Needed To Go Up

S&P 500 (SPX) - It Looks Like Fed Decision Was Needed To Go Up

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 17.03.2022 15:57
S&P 500 reversed the pre-FOMC decline, and turned up. The upswing didn‘t fizzle out after the conference, quite to the contrary, the credit markets deepened their risk-on posture. I guess stocks are buying the story of 7 rate hikes and balance sheet reduction in 2022 a bit too enthusiastically. Not gonna happen, next quarter‘s GDP data would probably be already negative. Yet Powell says that the risk of recession into next year isn‘t elevated – given the projected tightening, I beg to differ. But of course, Powell is right – it‘s only that we won‘t see all those promised hikes, let alone balance sheet reduction starting in spring. Inflation would retreat a little towards year‘s end (on account of recessionary undercurrents and modest tightening), only to surprise once again in 2023 on the upside. I already wrote so weeks ago – before the East European events. There wouldn‘t enough time to celebrate the notion of vanquishing inflation. For now, stocks can continue the bullish turn – just as commodities and precious metals aren‘t asking permission. The FOMC is over, and real assets can rise, including the badly beaten crude oil. Made a good decision to keep adding to the commodities positions at much lower prices (or turning bullish stocks around the press conference). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 upswing looks like it can go on for a while. It was driven by tech, participating more enthusiastically than value. The conditions are in place for the rally to continue, and it‘s likely that Friday would be a better day than Thursday for the bulls. Credit Markets HYG is catching quite some bid, and credit markets have turned decidedly risk-on. It also looks like a sigh of relief over no 50bp hike – the stock market rally got its hesitant ally. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals upswing can return – and this correction wasn‘t anyway sold heavily into. Needless to say how overdone it was if you look at the miners. $1950s would be reconquered easily. Crude Oil Crude oil bottom looks to be in, and $110s are waiting. Obviously it would take more than a couple of days to return there, but we‘re on the way. Copper Copper is rebounding, and even if other base metals aren‘t yet following too enthusiastically, $4.70 isn‘t far away. Coupled with precious metals returning to more reasonable values, the red metal would continue trending higher. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are leaning risk-on, and the bulls will close this weekend on a good note. Today‘s price action is merely a consolidation in a short-term upswing. Summary S&P 500 bulls got enough fuel from the Fed, and the run can continue – albeit at a slower pace. Importantly, credit markets aren‘t standing in the short-term way, but I think they would carve out a bearish divergence when this rally starts topping out. I‘m not looking for fresh ATHs, the headwinds are too stiff, but as stated within today‘s key analysis, the tech participation is a very encouraging sign for the short-term. The dollar indeed didn‘t make any kind of upside progress to speak of yesterday – and as I have also written at length in yesterday‘s report, the pre-FOMC trading pattern in real assets can be reversed now. Long live precious metals, oil and copper gains! Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
GBPUSD Almost Full Recovered After BoE's Decision, USDJPY Doesn't Fluctuate Significantly, S&P 500 (SPX) Is Not So Far From 4400.00

GBPUSD Almost Full Recovered After BoE's Decision, USDJPY Doesn't Fluctuate Significantly, S&P 500 (SPX) Is Not So Far From 4400.00

Jing Ren Jing Ren 18.03.2022 07:58
GBPUSD attempts to rebound The British pound stalled after the BOE failed to secure a unanimous vote for higher rates. A bullish RSI divergence suggests exhaustion in the sell-off, and combined with the indicator’s oversold condition on the daily chart, may attract buying interest. A tentative break above 1.3190 led some sellers to take profit. The bulls will need to push above the 1.3250 next to the 20-day moving average to get a foothold. On the downside, the psychological level of 1.3000 is a critical floor to keep the current rebound valid. USDJPY takes a breather The Japanese yen struggles as the BOJ pledges to stick with stimulus. Sentiment turned extremely bullish after the pair rallied above December 2016’s high at 118.60. The RSI went overbought on both hourly and daily charts, and the overextension could refrain buyers from chasing bids. Trend followers may be waiting to buy at pullbacks. 117.70 is the first level to gauge buying interest and 116.80 is the second line of support. A rebound above 119.00 would extend gains beyond the psychological level of 120.00. SPX 500 tests resistance The S&P 500 bounced higher after Russia averted a bond default. Price action has stabilized above last June’s lows around 4140 where a triple bottom indicates a strong interest in keeping the index afloat. A previous attempt above 4350 forced sellers to cover but hit resistance at 4420. A bullish close above this key level on the daily chart could trigger a runaway rally. 4590 would be the next target when sentiment turns around. Otherwise, a lack of conviction from the buy-side would send the index to test 4250.
Trading plan for Dogecoin on June 22, 2022

Dogecoin price could tank as India’s central bank closes the doors to cryptos

FXStreet News FXStreet News 17.03.2022 16:34
The Indian Central Bank came out this morning with firm rejection against adopting cryptocurrencies in the country. Dogecoin price action undergoes firm rejection against a double technical barrier. DOGE set to tank by 8% as bears see opportunity fit to pair back gains from Wednesday yet again. Dogecoin (DOGE) price action saw bulls being hit by ice-cold water this morning as two headlines made the sky drop on their heads. These were the Kremlin coming out saying that talks are nowhere near as positive as markets are frontrunning, and the Indian Central Bank (RBI) giving a firm rejection to the adoption of cryptocurrencies. The RBI branded cryptocurrencies as a tool that will wreck the currency system, monetary authority and government's ability to control the economy. This is a significant blow and setback for cryptocurrencies that saw bulls coming up yesterday for a catch of fresh air but are now again submerged underwater with negative prints today. Dogecoin price gains short-lived Dogecoin price action is not currently in a sweet spot as in just 5 minutes, two separate comments unrelated to each other trashed bulls’ game plan to target $0.1357 next week. Instead, DOGE price action fell back to its opening price and took a step back as bulls reassessed the situation – due to some unforeseen tail risks that caused headwinds overpowering the tailwinds that emerged the day before. Expect to possibly see DOGE price action tumble again to the downside, in a similar scenario to last week. DOGE price action got a firm rejection from negative headlines at $0.1197 with the green ascending trend line and that intermediary top-line proving too big for bulls to take on. Instead, price action collapsed back to the entry-level and looked heavy and dangling, as if poised to drop at any moment to the downside. A possible downside target is set at $0.1137 and $0.1100 with the last one making a triple bottom – although there is also the risk of a break even further to the downside if more tail-risk materialises. DOGE/USD daily chart Once the US session takes over, it could well be that investors look beyond these very short-term headlines, considering them as partial hiccups before moving on. That would mean a pickup in buying interest which could lead to a punch through $0.1197 to the upside. This would open the door towards $0.1242 intraday and possibly again on track for $0.1357.
GOLD – Potential Bullish Reversal!

Can Disinflation Support A Decline Of Price Of Gold?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 18.03.2022 15:13
  Inflation continues to rise but may soon reach its peak. After that, its fate will be sealed: a gradual decline. Does the same await gold?If you like inviting people over, you’ve probably figured out that some guests just don’t want to leave, even when you’re showing subtle signs of fatigue. They don’t seem to care and keep telling you the same not-so-funny jokes. Even in the hall, they talk lively and tell stories for long minutes because they remembered something very important. Inflation is like that kind of guest – still sitting in your living room, even after you turned off the music and went to wash the dishes, yawning loudly. Indeed, high inflation simply does not want to leave. Actually, it’s gaining momentum. As the chart below shows, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 6.0% over the past 12 months, speeding up from 5.5% in the previous month. Meanwhile, the overall CPI annual rate accelerated from 7.1% in December to 7.5% in January. It’s been the largest 12-month increase since the period ending February 1982. However, at the time, Paul Volcker raised interest rates to double digits and inflation was easing. Today, inflation continues to rise, but the Fed is only starting its tightening cycle. The Fed’s strategy to deal with inflation is presented in the meme below. What is important here is that the recent surge in inflation is broad-based, with virtually all index components showing increases over the past 12 months. The share of items with price rises of over 2% increased from less than 60% before the pandemic to just under 90% in January 2022. As the chart below shows, the index for shelter is constantly rising and – given the recent spike in “asking rents” – is likely to continue its upward move for some time, adding to the overall CPI. What’s more, the Producer Price Index is still red-hot, which suggests that more inflation is in the pipeline, as companies will likely pass on the increased costs to consumers. So, will inflation peak anytime soon or will it become embedded? There are voices that – given the huge monetary expansion conducted in response to the epidemic – high inflation will be with us for the next two or three years, especially when inflationary expectations have risen noticeably. I totally agree that high inflation won’t go away this year. Please just take a look at the chart below, which shows that the pandemic brought huge jumps in the ratio of broad money to GDP. This ratio has increased by 23%, from Q1 2020 to Q4 2021, while the CPI has risen only 7.7% in the same period. It suggests that the CPI has room for a further increase. What’s more, the pace of growth in money supply is still far above the pre-pandemic level, as the chart below shows. To curb inflation, the Fed would have to more decisively turn off the tap with liquidity and hike the federal funds rate more aggressively. However, as shown in the chart above, money supply growth peaked in February 2021. Thus, after a certain lag, the inflation rate should also reach a certain height. It usually takes about a year or a year and a half for any excess money to show up as inflation, so the peak could arrive within a few months, especially since some of the supply disruptions should start to ease in the near future. What does this intrusive inflation imply for the precious metals market? Well, the elevated inflationary pressure should be supportive of gold prices. However, I’m afraid that when disinflation starts, the yellow metal could suffer. The decline in inflation rates implies weaker demand for gold as an inflation hedge and also higher real interest rates. The key question is, of course, what exactly will be the path of inflation. Will it normalize quickly or gradually, or even stay at a high plateau after reaching a peak? I don’t expect a sharp disinflation, so gold may not enter a 1980-like bear market. Another question of the hour is whether inflation will turn into stagflation. So far, the economy is growing, so there is no stagnation. However, growth is likely to slow down, and I wouldn’t be surprised by seeing some recessionary trends in 2023-2024. Inflation should still be elevated then, creating a perfect environment for the yellow metal. Hence, the inflationary genie is out of the bottle and it could be difficult to push it back, even if inflation peaks in the near future. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
China’s economic outlook for the second half of 2022

"Boring" Bitcoin (BTC) And Gaining S&P 500 (SPX). Crude Oil Price Chart Shows A Green Candle At The Right Hand Side,

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 18.03.2022 15:50
S&P 500 extended gains, and the risk appetite in bonds carried over into value rising faster than tech. Given the TLT downswing though, it‘s all but rainbows and unicorns ahead today. Not only that quad witching would bring high volume and chop, VIX itself doesn‘t look to slide smoothly below 25 today. Friday‘s ride would be thus rocky, and affected by momentum stalling in both tech and value. Real assets though can and will enjoy the deserved return into the spotlight. With much of the preceding downswing being based on deescalation hopes (that aren‘t materializing, still), the unfolding upswing in copper, oil and precious metals (no, they aren‘t to be spooked by the tough Fed tightening talk) would happen at a more measured pace than had been the case recently. Pay attention to the biting inflation, surrounding blame games hinting at no genuine respite – read through the rich captions of today‘s chart analyses, and think about reliable stores of real value. And of course, enjoy the open profits. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 looks likely to consolidate as the 4,400 – 4,450 zone would be tough to overcome, and such a position relative to both the moving averages shown, has historically stopped quite a few steep recoveries off very negative sentiment readings. Credit Markets HYG is likely to slow down here, as in really stall and face headwinds. The run had been respectable, and much of the easy gains happened already yesterday. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals upswing did indeed return – and the miners performance doesn‘t hint at a swift return of the bears, to put it mildly. The path to $1950s is open. Crude Oil Crude oil bottom was indeed in, and the price can keep recovering towards $110s and beyond. No, the economy isn‘t crashing yet, monetary policy isn‘t forcing that outcome, and the drawing of petroleum reserves is a telltale sign of upside price pressures mounting. It‘ll be an interesting April, mark my words. Copper Copper is duly rebounding, and not at all overheated. The move is also in line with other base metals. My yesterday‘s target of $4.70 has already been reached – I‘m looking for a measured pace of gains to continue. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are taking a small break, highlighting the perils of today. The boat won‘t be rocked too much. Summary S&P 500 bulls made the easy gains already yesterday, and today‘s session is going to be volatile, even treacherous in establishing a clear and lasting direction (i.e. choppy), and the headwinds would be out there in the plain open. These would come from bonds not continuing in the risk-on turn convincingly rather than commodities and metals surging head over heels. Both tech and value would feel the heat as VIX would show signs of waking up (to some degree). Today‘s session won‘t change the big picture dynamics of late, and I invite you to read more in-depth commentary within the individual market sections of today‘s full analysis. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Natural Gas Hits Its Final Target. The Luck of St. Patrick’s Day?

Natural Gas Hits Its Final Target. The Luck of St. Patrick’s Day?

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 18.03.2022 17:14
  St. Patrick’s Day is historically considered among the best trading days. Apparently, judging by the results, it may have brought some luck to natural gas. If you are interested in looking at the stats, an article by Market Watch summed them up. The second target hit – BOOM! Yesterday, on St. Patrick's Day, the opportunity to bank the extra profits from my recent Nat-Gas trade projections (provided on March 2) finally arrived. That trade plan has provided traders with multiple bounces to trade the NYMEX Natural Gas Futures (April contract) in various ways, always depending on each one’s personal risk profile. To get some more explanatory details on understanding the different trading ways this fly map (trading plan) could offer, I invite you to read my previous article (from March 11). To quickly sum it up, the various trade opportunities that could be played were as follows (with the following captures taken on March 11): The first possibility is swing trading, with the trailing stop method explained in my famous risk management article. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, hourly chart) The second option consisted of scalping the rebounds with fixed targets (active or experienced traders). I named this method “riding the tails” (or the shadows). Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, 4H chart) The third way is position trading – a more passive trading style (and usually more rewarding). Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) The chart below shows a good overall view of NYMEX Natural Gas hitting our final target, $4.860: Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, 4H chart) As you can see, the market has provided us with multiple entries into the same support zone (highlighted by the yellow band) – even after hitting the first target, you may have noticed that I maintained the entry conditions in place – after the suggestion to drag the stop up just below the new swing low ($4.450). The market, still in a bull run, got very close to that point on March 15 by making a new swing low at $4.459 (just about 10 ticks above it). Before that, it firmly rebounded once more (allowing a new/additional entry) and then extended its gains further away while consecutively hitting target 1 ($4.745) again. After that, it finally hit target 2 ($4.860)! That’s all folks for today. It is time to succesfully close this trade. Have a great weekend! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Will Fuel Prices Shock Again? Crude Oil Price Almost Hit $120! Will EV Become More Popular Shortly?

Major Forex Pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EURGBP Affected By Interest Rates Decisions – The Week On Markets By FXMAG.COM

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 18.03.2022 19:17
Fed raised interest rate by 25bps so did Bank of England. Data shows that these events haven’t hit major Forex pairs so hard so let’s verify the theory. EUR/USD – A ca. 1.2% Gain The chart shows the week began without significant fluctuations until the Fed decision on March 16th. Immediately after the announcement of the key monetary policy indicator a huge declined stopped the strengthening Euro. The pair even neared the 2% gain level, but during the week has declined again slowly ending it near +1.2%. GBP/USD – Two announcements correlation The week hadn’t began too positively for British pound, but the following days had put GBP back on track to a ca. 1% gain after significant declines shortly after Fed and BoE decisions on accordingly Wednesday and Thursday. EUR/GBP – A ca. 1% Increased Corrected Naturally Fed’s announcement didn’t affect the single currency and British bound heavily, but the Bank of England’s fuelled EUR/GBP almost 1% jump which had been gradually corrected in the following days leaving the pair almost unchanged compared to the 14th March. USD/PLN – exotic pair with interesting outlook There’s no doubt PLN has strengthened throughout the week even if Fed announced the raise of interest rate. The stronger outlook of PLN is surely caused by the previous week’s tightening of monetary policy. EUR/PLN – PLN gained ca. 1.5% Global factors makes the pais with PLN the most interesting ones as another shows a significant loss of Euro To Polish zloty. The following week might bring next tempting fluctuations so let’s keep an eye on this pair.
Potential recovery to approx. US$2,000

Potential recovery to approx. US$2,000

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 20.03.2022 10:13
Starting at a low of US$1,780 on January 28th, gold went up rapidly US$290 within less than six weeks, reaching a short-term top at US$2,070. Since that high on March 8th, however, gold prices fell back even faster. In total, gold plunged a whooping US$175 to a low of US$1,895 in the aftermath of last week’s FOMC meeting. A quick bounce took prices back to around US$1,950, but the weekly close at around US$1,920 came in lower.This volatile roller coaster ride is truly not for the faint of heart. Nevertheless, gold has done well this year, and, despite a looming multi-months correction, it might now be in a setup from which another attack towards US$2,000 could start in the short-term.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of March 19th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of March 19th, 2022.On the weekly chart, gold prices have been rushing higher with great momentum. For five consecutive weeks, the bulls were able to bend the upper Bollinger band (US$1,963) upwards. However, the final green candle closed far outside the Bollinger bands and looks like a weekly reversal. Consequently, if gold has now dipped into a multi-month correction, a retracement back to the neckline of the broken triangle respectively the inverse head & shoulder pattern in the range of US$1,820 to US$1,850 would be quite typical and to be expected. In this range, the classic 61.8% retracement of the entire wave up (from the low at US$1,678 on August 9th, 2021, to the most recent blow off top at US$2,070) sits at US$1,827.79. The weekly stochastic oscillator has not yet rolled over, but weekly momentum is overbought and vulnerable.In total, the weekly chart shows a big reversal and therefore no longer supports the bullish case. However, it could still take some more time before a potential correction gains momentum.  Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of March 19th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of March 19th, 2022.While the weekly chart may just be at the beginning of a multi-month correction, the overbought setup on the daily chart has already been largely cleared up by the recent steep pullback. Despite Friday’s rather weak closing, the odds are not bad that gold might very soon be turning up again. However, gold bulls need to take out the pivot resistance around US$1,960 to unlock higher price targets in the context of a recovery. The potential Fibonacci retracements are waiting at US$1,962, US$2,003 and US$2,028. Hence, gold could bounce back to approx. US$2,000, which is a round number and therefore a psychological resistance.On the other hand, if gold fails to move back above Thursday’s high at US$1,950, weakness will increase immediately and significantly. In that case, bulls can only hope that the quickly rising lower Bollinger Band (US$1,861) would catch and limit a deeper sell-off. But since the stochastic oscillator has reached its oversold zone, bears might have a hard time pushing gold significantly below US$1,900.Overall, the daily chart is slightly oversold, and gold might start a bounce soon. Conclusion: Potential recovery to approx. US$2,000After a strong rally and a steep pullback, the gold market is likely in the process of reordering. While the weekly timeframe points to a correction, the oversold daily chart points to an immediate bounce. Given these contradictory signals, investors and especially traders are well advised to exercise patience and caution in the coming days, weeks, and months. If gold has entered a corrective cycle, it could easily take until the early to mid-summer before a sustainable new up-trend might emerge.Alternative super bullish scenarioAlternatively, and this of course is still a possible scenario, the breakout from the large “cup and handle” pattern is just getting started. In this very bullish case, gold is in the process of breaking out above US$2,100 to finally complete the very large “cup and handle” pattern, which has been developing for 11 years! Obviously, the sky would then be the limit.To summarize, gold is getting really bullish back above US$2,030. On the other hand, below $US1,895 the bears would be in control. In between those two numbers, the odds favor a bounce towards US$1,960 and maybe USD$2,000.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|March 19th, 2022|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bearish, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, Gold consolidation, gold fundamentals, Gold sideways, precious metals, Reyna Gold|0 Commentshttps://www.midastouch-consulting.com/gold-chartbook-19032022-potential-recovery-to-approx-us2000About the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
Price Of Crude Oil And Price Of Gold Crosses Each Other

Price Of Crude Oil And Price Of Gold Crosses Each Other

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 21.03.2022 12:14
Gold has remained in a one-and-a-half per cent range since last Thursday. The correction from a peak of $2070 to values below $1900 caused a brief aftershock, but it was not sustained. Gold has now stabilised above the peaks of May and June last year and is currently searching for further meaningful momentum. For short-term traders, gold has taken a back seat as markets try to assess the impact of disrupted supply chains and the amount of supply shortfall in raw materials and food. At the same time, medium-term traders should not lose sight of the fact that the current situation will not allow central banks to act adequately. As a result, the supply of fiat money will increase faster than the supply of commodities. In other words, we should expect greater tolerance for higher inflation from the CBs. In addition, governments should also be expected to provide financial support to the economy. In practice, that means more money supply and a higher level of public debt to GDP. And that is another disincentive for monetary policy, which is negative for the currency. It is also favourable for gold, which is used as protection against capital depreciation. Oil is gradually becoming the opposite of gold. After bouncing back to the trend support level of the last four months, Brent got back above $100 reasonably quickly and is adding 4% on Monday, trading at $109. Speculative demand for oil is picking up again amid discussions of a Russian energy divestment, which could be the agenda for the EU leaders and Biden meeting later this week. In addition, the US oil supply has been slow to rise, with data on Friday showing that the number of working oil drilling rigs declined a week earlier. Oil producers appear to be cautious about demand prospects with record fuel prices and are in no hurry to flood the market. This will fuel prices in the short term but is becoming an increasing drag on the economy in the medium term. Locally, we also risk suggesting that Europe will once again make it clear that it cannot substitute Russian energy, preferring to focus on sanctions against other sectors. And that could prove to be a dampening factor for oil later in the week. Oil prices above 110 still look unsustainably high, and a range with support at $85 looks more adequate for the coming months.
The (SPX) S&P 500 Price Way Up Likely To Make Many "WOW!"

The (SPX) S&P 500 Price Way Up Likely To Make Many "WOW!"

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 21.03.2022 14:19
  The S&P 500 extended its short-term uptrend on Friday after breaking above the early March local high. Will we see some profit-taking action soon? The broad stock market index gained 1.17% on Friday following its Thursday’s advance of 1.2%. Stocks extended their rally and since last Monday’s low of around 4,162, the index has already gained over 300 points. The market accelerated higher after the Wednesday’s FOMC interest rate hike. There’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict, however, investors were jumping back into stocks despite that geopolitical uncertainty. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.1% lower. We may see a consolidation or some profit-taking action following the mentioned 300-point rebound from the last Monday’s low. The nearest important resistance level is at around 4,500. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,400-4,415, marked by the previous local high. The S&P 500 index trades just below its early February consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Broke Above the Previous High Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. On Friday it broke above the early March local highs of around 4,400. It’s the nearest important support level right now. We may see a correction following the recent run-up. However, there have been no confirmed negative signals so far. We are maintaining our profitable long position from the 4,340 level, as we are still expecting a bullish price action in the near-term (our premium Stock Trading Alert includes details of our trading position along with the stop-loss and profit target levels) (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion Stocks extended their uptrend once again on Friday, as the S&P 500 index broke above the previous local high. It rallied over 300 points from its last Monday’s local low, so we may see a consolidation or some profit-taking action soon. This morning the broad stock market’s gauge is expected to open 0.1% lower. The war In Ukraine is still a negative factor for the markets. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index rallied over 300 points from the last Monday’s local low; we may see a correction at some point. We are maintaining our profitable long position. We are still expecting an advance from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
S&P 500 (SPX) Up, Crude Oil Up, Credit Markets Up, Bitcoin Price Oops...

S&P 500 (SPX) Up, Crude Oil Up, Credit Markets Up, Bitcoin Price Oops...

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 21.03.2022 15:37
S&P 500 did really well through quad witching, and the same goes for credit markets. 4-day streak of non-stop gains – very fast ones. Short squeeze characteristics in the short run, makes me think this rally fizzles out before the month ends – 4,600 would hold. We‘re likely to make a higher low next, and that would be followed by 4-6 weeks of rally continuation before the bears come back with real force again. July would present a great buying opportunity in this wild year of a giant trading range. As I wrote yesterday: (…) The paper asset made it through quad witching in style - both stocks and bonds. The risk-on sentiment however didn't sink commodities or precious metals. Wednesday's FOMC brought worries over the Fed sinking real economy growth but Powell's conference calmed down fears through allegedly no recession risks this year, ascribing everything to geopolitics. Very convenient, but the grain of truth is that the Fed wouldn't indeed jeopardize GDP growth this year - that's the context of how to read the allegedly 7 rate hikes and balance sheet shrinking this year still. Not gonna happen as I stated on Thursday already. Such are my short- and medium-term thoughts on stocks. Copper remains best positioned to continue rising with relatively little volatility while crude oil isn‘t yet settled (its good times would continue regardless of the weak volume rally of last two days, which is making me a little worried). Precious metals are still basing, and would continue moving higher best on the Fed underperforming in its hawkish pronouncements. No way they‘re hiking 7 times this year and shrinking balance sheet at the same time as I wrote on Thursday – Treasury yields say they‘ll take on inflation more in 2023. 2022 is a mere warm-up. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is now past the 4,400 – 4,450 zone, and hasn‘t yet consolidated. This week would definitely though not be as bullish as the one just gone by – the bulls will be challenged a little. Credit Markets HYG eked out more gains, but the air is slowly becoming thinner. As the sentiment turns more bullish through no deep decline over the coming few days, that‘s when junk bonds would start wavering. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals aren‘t turning down for good here – I think they‘re deciphering the Fed story of hiking slower than intended, which in effect gives inflation a new lease on life. Not that it was wavering, though. More upside in gold and silver to come. Crude Oil Crude oil is rising again, but look for a measured upswing that‘s not free from headwinds. While I think we would climb above $110 still, I‘m sounding a more cautious note given the decreasing volume – I would like to see more conviction next. Copper Copper is behaving, and would continue rising reliably alongside other commodities. It‘s also the best play considering downside protection at the moment. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin isn‘t recovering Sunday‘s setback – but the Ethereum upswing bodes well for risk taking today, even that doesn‘t concern cryptos all too much. Summary S&P 500 has a bit more to run before running into headwinds, which would happen still this week. Credit markets are a tad too optimistic, and rising yields would leave a mark especially on tech. Value, energy and materials are likely to do much better. Crude oil is bound to be volatile over the coming weeks, but still rising and spiking – not yet settled. Copper and precious metals present better appreciation opportunities when looking at their upcoming volatility. Within today‘s key analysis, I‘ve covered the path of stocks, so do have a good look at the opening part. Finally, cryptos likewise paint the picture of risk-on trades not being over just yet. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Blackberry Stock Price & News: BB bounces as company says Jarvis to be rolled out

Blackberry Stock Price & News: BB bounces as company says Jarvis to be rolled out

FXStreet News FXStreet News 21.03.2022 16:05
Blackberry stock is back trending on retail investment sites after a long break.BB stock was one of the old meme stock favorites from last year.The stock also catches a major investment bank upgrade on Monday.Blackberry shares are back. The BB ticker is once again trending all over social media and retail trading sites after quite a long hiatus in the wilderness. That's break to you and me but my editor likes the fancy words! But Blackberry (BB) is definitely back. It was one of the original stocks caught up in the frenzy of short squeeze speculation last year but dropped off most people's attention lists as the stock was unable to push on and gave up all of its gains. BB stock fell from $20.17 in June 2021 to $5.80 in February 2022. Also read: AMC stock starts Monday with more gainsBlackberry (BB) stock news: Announces 13 channel partners for Jarvis 2.0Blackberry was the go-to business phone in the early 2010 decade before being totally outmaneuvered by the emergence of the smartphone. Holding a Blackberry was a sign that you had made it in the business world but the company and phone went the way of Nokia, totally demolished by Apple and other smartphone makers. But both companies Blackberry and Nokia have struggled along with varying degrees of success. Blackberry caught some renewed attention on Monday as it announced its Jarvis 2.0 testing tool will be offered by 13 partners to companies in the Asia Pacific region. “Asia-Pacific is at a tipping point in how it protects infrastructure and industries against growing IoT security threats as digital automation continues to advance,” said Dhiraj Handa, vice president of BlackBerry QNX for the Asia-Pacific region. Jarvis is a testing tool that allows companies to look for potential branches of security in their systems. "BlackBerry® Jarvis® 2.0 is a software composition analysis and static application security testing solution that is designed to analyze binaries within complex embedded systems. It lets you identify security vulnerabilities in products that have software from multiple sources, without the need for source code. It’s a powerful tool that provides you insights into your binaries and helps you catch potential security issues with the click", from Blackberry. This is timely given the heightened security and hacker issues surrounding many systems and companies are spending increasing amounts of their IT budgets on security issues. Blackberry (BB) stock forecastThis certainly reads positively but it is early days in the process. BB stock price has recovered but remains in a powerful downtrend. The recent spike up to the 50-day moving average is encouraging but only a break of $9.47 would really get momentum back towards bulls. Breaking above $48.50 is the first target and would put BB back in a neutral stance. Above $9.47 BB stock is bullish. The first resistance is the 50-day moving average at $7.41. Blackberry (BB) chart, daily
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Stock Tops $500,000

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Stock Tops $500,000

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 21.03.2022 21:44
A subscriber asked us recently where he should be putting his money and how to limit losses in his retirement portfolio. He expressed frustration as he watched Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway stock going up, but at the same time, the stock indices going lower and many of his previously favored stocks experiencing substantial losses! This conversation naturally piqued our curiosity. We decided to look into this for him and, at the same time, share our findings with our subscribers.Berkshire Hathaway stock traded at an all-time record high price of $520,654.46. At a stock price of $512,991, Berkshire’s market capitalization is $756.23 billion. Last year, Berkshire generated a record $27.46 billion of operating profit, including gains at Geico car insurance, the BNSF railroad, and Berkshire Hathaway Energy.BERKSHIRE vs. S&P 500 BENCHMARKWarren Buffett, age 91 (known as the ‘Sage of Omaha’), is the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. He is considered by many to be the most successful stock investor in the world and, according to Forbes Real-Time Billionaire List, has a personal net worth that exceeds $120 billion USD.Very few can compete with his long-term track record. Since 1965, Berkshire has provided +20% average annual returns, almost double the +10.2% average annual returns for the S&P 500 Stock Index benchmark. The 2022 year-to-date comparison is:BRK.A Berkshire Hathaway +14.53%; SPY SPDR ETF -6.36%; FB Facebook -35.64%However, according to Buffett’s own humility, he has endured years of underperformance and has had his share of bad stock picks. When Buffet was asked about drawdowns at one of Berkshire’s annual meetings, he stated, “Unless you can watch your stock holdings decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.” According to www.finance.yahoo.com, the five biggest percentage losses for Berkshire have been:1974 -48.7%, 1990 -23.1%, 1999 -19.9%, 2008 -31.8%, and 2015 -12.5%.WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THE ‘BUFFETT INDICATOR’?The Buffett Indicator, as dubbed by Berkshire shareholders, is the ratio of the total United States stock market valuations (the Wilshire 5000 stock index) divided by the annual U.S. GDP. The indicator peaked at the beginning of 2022 and remains near all-time highs even though many stocks are well off their record levels.This historical chart of the Buffett Indicator was created by www.currentmarketvaluation.com. Doing quantitative analysis, we learn that the indicator is more than 1.6 standard deviations above the historical average, which suggests the market is over-valued and, in time, will fall back to its historical average.Berkshire Hathaway At Fibonacci Resistance!On March 18, 2022, Berkshire hit an all-time high price of $520,654. The Fibonacci resistance level of 2.618 or 261.8% of the March 23 low of $239,440 is $520,196. As shown on the daily chart, Berkshire also met resistance at the 2.618 standard deviations of the quarterly Bollinger Band.THE BENCHMARK: S&P 500 SPY ETFThe S&P 500 Index is the industry standard benchmark when comparing investment returns. It’s worth noting that as Berkshire reached the Fibonacci 2.618 resistance, the SPY found support at the Fibonacci 1.618 of the SPY March 23, 2020 low.Central banks have begun to tighten credit by raising interest rates for the first time since 2018, attempting to bring fast-rising energy, food, and housing prices under control. More time is needed to determine the full impact that rising global interest rates will have on current markets.However, on the chart below, we can see that the SPY put in a major top around 480 and, for the time being, has found support around 420 (the Fibonacci 1.618 level). Considering the increased market volatility and that we are now entering a cycle of higher interest rates, it would not surprise us to see the SPY eventually break below 420.It is worth noting that when a market makes a top after a prolonged bull-market, we usually experience distribution. Distribution with volatility results from large institutions beginning to liquidate their holdings while smaller retail investors are trying to buy stocks on sale. In other words, the retail investors are buying the dip hoping to get a bargain, while the institutional investors are selling the rally hoping to be liquidated and/or go short. It is a battle that retail investors will eventually lose!It is important to understand we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article sheds some light on some interesting analyses that you should be aware of. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades with subscribers to our newsletter, and surprisingly, we have just entered five new trades.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.GET READY, GET SET, GO - We invite you to learn more about how my three ETF Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Bitcoin Price Hits $42k, ETH And AVAX Have Decreased, Polkadot (DOT) Gained

Bitcoin Price Hits $42k, ETH And AVAX Have Decreased, Polkadot (DOT) Gained

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 23.03.2022 09:12
BTC rose 3.5% on Tuesday. At the peak of the day, the rate exceeded $43.2K, but by Wednesday morning, it rolled back to $42K, demonstrating a 0.7% correction. Growth without solid reasons? Bitcoin tested 19-day highs above $43,000 supported by stock indexes with Chinese equities predominantly pulling it. BTC rose sharply during the Asian session, adding about $2,000 in a few hours, although a corrective mood then prevailed. Bitcoin clearly doesn't have a reason for a solid establishment on the path of growth yet. Ethereum is losing 1% over 24 hours, while other leading altcoins from the top ten showed mixed dynamics yesterday: from a decline of 2.7% (Avalanche) to a rise of 3.8% (Polkadot). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 0.5%, to $1.91 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index fell by 0.1% to 41.9%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index added another 5 points to 31, although it remains in a "fear" state. BTC is ready for sharp swing At the moment, on-chain metrics are consistent with a bear market, Glassnode notes. The rise in implied volatility and higher leverage in the derivatives market point to the possibility of a sharp swing in bitcoin. However, the sell-off in "defensive" developed-country government bonds continues in financial markets as investors park their money in stocks and commodities that provide the best hedge against prolonged and high inflation. At the same time, there are no clear signs of an economic and financial catastrophe that could hurt stocks or commodities. The world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates plans to invest in one of the third-party crypto funds, pointing to the risks for fiat currencies, which lose sharply during periods of military and economic wars.
Gold To Go Head To Head With Fed And Inflation

Gold To Go Head To Head With Fed And Inflation

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 23.03.2022 15:17
  The Fed's hawkish alerts seem like a voice in the wilderness to gold investors. However, a carefree attitude can backfire on them – in just a few months. An epic battle is unfolding across the financial markets as the Fed warns investors about its looming rate hike cycle and the latter ignores the ramifications. However, with perpetually higher asset prices only exacerbating the Fed's inflationary conundrum, a profound shift in sentiment will likely occur over the next few months. To explain, I highlighted in recent days how the Fed has turned the hawkish dial up to 100. Moreover, I wrote on Mar. 22 that it's remarkable how much the PMs' domestic fundamental outlooks have deteriorated in recent weeks. Yet, prices remain elevated, investors remain sanguine, and the bullish bands continue to play.  However, with inflation still rising and the Fed done playing games, the next few months should elicit plenty of fireworks. For example, with another deputy sounding the hawkish alarm, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Mar. 22: "Inflation has persisted for long enough that people are starting to wonder how long it will persist. I'm already focused on letting make sure this doesn't get embedded and we see those longer-term inflation expectations drift up." As a result, Daly wants to ensure that the "main risk" to the U.S. economy doesn't end up causing a recession. Please see below: Source: Reuters Likewise, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard reiterated his position on Mar. 22, telling Bloomberg that “faster is better,” and that “the 1994 tightening cycle or removal of accommodation cycle is probably the best analogy here.” Please see below: Source: Bloomberg   Falling on Deaf Ears To that point, while investors seem to think that the Fed can vastly restrict monetary policy without disrupting a healthy U.S. economy, a major surprise could be on the horizon. For example, the futures market has now priced in nearly 10 rate hikes by the Fed in 2022. As a result, should we expect the hawkish developments to unfold without a hitch? Please see below: To explain, the light blue, dark blue, and pink lines above track the number of rate hikes expected by the Fed, BoE, and ECB. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the light blue line has risen sharply over the last several days and months. For your reference, if you focus your attention on the material underperformance of the pink line, you can see why I’ve been so bearish on the EUR/USD for so long. Also noteworthy, please have a look at the U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield minus the German 2-Year Bond yield spread. If you analyze the rapid rise on the right side of the chart below, you can see how much short-term U.S. yields have outperformed their European counterparts in 2021/2022. Source: Bloomberg/ Lisa Abramowicz More importantly, though, with Fed officials’ recent rhetoric encouraging more hawkish re-pricing instead of talking down expectations (like the ECB), they want investors to slow their roll. However, investors are now fighting the Fed, and the epic battle will likely lead to profound disappointment over the medium term. Case in point: when Fed officials dial up the hawkish rhetoric, their “messaging” is supposed to shift investors’ expectations. As such, the threat of raising interest rates is often as impactful as actually doing it. However, when investors don’t listen, the Fed has to turn the hawkish dial up even more. If history is any indication, a calamity will eventually unfold.  Please see below: To explain, the blue line above tracks the U.S. federal funds rate, while the various circles and notations above track the global crises that erupted during the Fed’s rate hike cycles. As a result, standard tightening periods often result in immense volatility.  However, with investors refusing to let asset prices fall, they’re forcing the Fed to accelerate its rate hikes to achieve its desired outcome (calm inflation). As such, the next several months could be a rate hike cycle on steroids.  To that point, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell dropping the hawkish hammer on Mar. 21, I noted his response to a question about inflation calming in the second half of 2022. I wrote on Mar. 22: "That story has already fallen apart. To the extent it continues to fall apart, my colleagues and I may well reach the conclusion we'll need to move more quickly and, if so, we'll do so." To that point, Powell said that “there’s excess demand" and that "the economy is very strong and is well-positioned to handle tighter monetary policy." As a result, while investors seem to think that Powell’s bluffing, enlightenment will likely materialize over the next few months. Please see below: Source: Reuters Furthermore, with Goldman Sachs economists noting the shift in tone from “steadily” in January to “expeditiously” on Mar. 21, they also upped their hawkish expectations. They wrote: “We are now forecasting 50bp hikes at both the May and June meetings (vs. 25bp at each meeting previously). The level of the funds rate would still be low at 0.75-1% after a 50bp hike in May, and if the FOMC is open to moving in larger steps, then we think it would see a second 50bp hike in June as appropriate under our forecasted inflation path.” “After the two 50bp moves, we expect the FOMC to move back to 25bp rate hikes at the four remaining meetings in the back half of 2022, and to then further slow the pace next year by delivering three quarterly hikes in 2023Q1-Q3. We have left our forecast of the terminal rate unchanged at 3-3.25%, as shown in Exhibit 1.” Please see below: In addition, this doesn’t account for the Fed’s willingness to sell assets on its balance sheet. For context, Powell said on Mar. 16 that quantitative tightening (QT) should occur sometime in the summer and that shrinking the balance sheet “might be the equivalent of another rate increase.” As a result, investors’ lack of preparedness for what should unfold over the next few months has been something to behold. However, the reality check will likely elicit a major shift in sentiment.  In contrast, the bond market heard Powell’s message loud and clear, and with the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield hitting another 2022 high of ~2.38% on Mar. 22, the entire U.S. yield curve is paying attention. Please see below: Source: Investing.com Finally, the Richmond Fed released its Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity on Mar. 22. With the headline index increasing from 1 in February to 13 in March, the report cited “increases in all three of the component indexes – shipments, volume of new orders, and number of employees.” Moreover, the prices received index increased month-over-month (MoM) in March (the red box below), while future six-month expectations for prices paid and received also increased (the blue box below). As a result, inflation trends are not moving in the Fed’s desired direction. Please see below: Source: Richmond Fed Likewise, the Richmond Fed also released its Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activity on Mar. 22, nd while the headline index decreased from 13 in February to -3 in March, current and future six-month inflationary pressures/expectations rose MoM. Source: Richmond Fed The bottom line? While the Fed is screaming at the financial markets to tone it down to help calm inflation, investors aren't listening. With higher prices resulting in more hawkish rhetoric and policy, the Fed should keep amplifying its message until investors finally take note. If not, inflation will continue its ascent until demand destruction unfolds and the U.S. slips into a recession. As such, if investors assume that several rate hikes will commence over the next several months with little or no volatility in between, they're likely in for a major surprise. In conclusion, the PMs declined on Mar. 22, as the sentiment seesaw continued. However, as I noted, it's remarkable how much the PMs' domestic fundamental outlooks have deteriorated in recent weeks. Thus, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict keeps them uplifted, for now, the Fed's inflation problem is nowhere near an acceptable level. As a result, when investors finally realize that a much tougher macroeconomic environment confronts them over the next few months, the shift in sentiment will likely culminate in sharp drawdowns. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
(MCO) Crypto.com Price Rises As The Company Is Presented As A Sponsor Of An Important Sport Event

(MCO) Crypto.com Price Rises As The Company Is Presented As A Sponsor Of An Important Sport Event

FXStreet News FXStreet News 23.03.2022 15:52
Crypto.com token set a stable base and rallied 12% to clear a crucial hurdle at $0.41. If CRO manages to stay above this barrier, a retest of $0.45 seems likely. A breakdown of $0.41 could trigger a correction to $0.37 or lower. Crypto.com token has set up pools of liquidity at the range low and high of recent run-up. This technical outlook creates ambiguity with directional bias, but the recent announcement indicates a bullish move is likely. The company’s Twitter account posted that it will be a sponsor of the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022. A blog post further elaborated that Crypto.com will be the “exclusive cryptocurrency trading company” sponsoring the Qatar 2022 FIFA World Cup. This move from the establishment is not unseen in the crypto industry with FTX partnering with major Major Baseball League, Mercedes, eSports teams and so on. The sponsorship will allow Crypto.com to garner branding exposure from within and outside the tournament’s stadiums. Crypto.com token at make-or-break point Crypto.com token fell nearly 20% between March 2 and 7, setting up a range that extends from $0.45 to $0.37. This downswing set a boundary and CRO bulls respected it and created a double bottom at $0.37, triggering then a recovery rally. So far, the Crypto.com token has managed to flip the 50% retracement level at $0.41 and is at the time of writing hovering above it. A continuation of this bullish momentum could see CRO heading back to the range high and perhaps higher. Interested investors can wait for a retest of the $0.41 barrier to enter a long position and book profits at $0.45. In some cases, the run-up could push the Crypto.com token to $0.47 especially if the buying pressure increases. CRO/USDT 4-hour chart Although things are looking favorable to bulls, a breakdown of the $0.41 support level will trigger a move in the opposite direction. If Crypto.com token produces a four-hour candlestick close below $0.37, it will invalidate the bullish thesis. This development could see Crypto.com token slide lower to retest the stable support level at $0.36.
What Will Be The Impact Of Rising Rates On Stocks & Commodities?

What Will Be The Impact Of Rising Rates On Stocks & Commodities?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 23.03.2022 21:33
Investors and traders alike are concerned about what investments they should make on behalf of their portfolios and retirement accounts. We, at TheTechnicalTraders.com, continue to monitor stocks and commodities closely due to the Russia-Ukraine War, market volatility, surging inflation, and rising interest rates. Several of our subscribers have asked if changes in monitor policy may lead to a recession as higher rates take a bigger bite out of corporate profits.As technical traders, we look exclusively at the price action to provide specific clues as to the current trend or a potential change in trend. We review our charts for both stocks and commodities to see what we can learn from the most recent price action. Before we dive into that, let’s review the various stages of the market; with special attention given to expansion vs. contraction in a rising interest rate environment which you can see illustrated below.PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR STOCK PORTFOLIOWe are keeping an especially close eye on the price action of the SPY ETF. The current resistance for the SPY is the 475 top that happened around January 6, 2022. This top was 212.5% of the March 23, 2020, low that was put in at the height of the Covid global pandemic.The SPY found support in the 410 area at the end of February. If you recall (or didn't know), 410 was the Fibonacci 1.618 or 161.8% percent of the Covid 2020 price drop. Now, after experiencing a nice rally back, of a little over 50%, we are waiting to see if the rally can continue or if rotation will occur, sending the price back lower.COMMODITY MARKETS SURGEDThe commodity markets experienced a tremendous rally due to fast-rising inflation, especially energy, metals, and food prices.The GSG ETF price action shows that we recently touched 200%, or the doubling of the April 21, 2020, low. Immediately following, similar to the SPY, the GSCI commodity index promptly sold off only to then find substantial buying support at the Fibonacci 1.618 or 161.8 percent of the starting low price of the bull trend. Resistance for the GSG is at 26, and support is 21.A STRENGTHENING US DOLLARThe strengthening US dollar can be attributed to investors seeking a safe haven from geopolitical events, surging inflation, and the Fed beginning to raise rates. The US Dollar is still considered the primary reserve currency as the greatest portion of forex reserves held by central banks are in dollars. Furthermore, most commodities, including gold and crude oil, are also denominated in dollars.Consider the following statement from the Bank of International Settlements www.bis.org ‘Triennial Central Bank Survey’ published September 16, 2019: “The US dollar retained its dominant currency status, being on one side of 88% of all trades.” The report also highlighted, “Trading in FX markets reached $6.6 trillion per day in April 2019, up from $5.1 trillion three years earlier.” That’s a lot of dollars traded globally and confirms that we need to stay current on the dollars price action.Multinational companies are especially keeping a close eye on the dollar as any major shift in global money flows will seriously negatively impact their net profit and subsequent share value.The following chart by www.finviz.com provides us with a current snapshot of the relative performance of the US dollar vs. major global currencies over the past year:KNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, AND APPLICATION ARE NEEDEDIt is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and somewhat surprisingly, we entered five new trades earlier this week, two of which have now hit their first profit target levels. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
FX: British Pound (GBP) Keeps Struggling, Can EUR/GBP Go On With Recovery? Gold Price: What About XAGUSD?

Natural Gas Price Rises As Triggered By Putin’s Rhetoric That He Will ‘Demand Rouble Gas Payments’

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 24.03.2022 12:47
According to Investing.com Russia could require gas payment in roubles what clearly affects both Forex pairs (e.g. EUR/RUB) and natural gas price (TTF) which has increased by 31%. What’s more MOEX is back to the game after such a long break. Some companies have gained significantly already and many would like to know what’s ahead. Generally speaking Russian currency and Russia-associated markets are really volatile at the moment and there are many assets to watch in the following days. Let’s begin with natural gas price. Obviously monthly chart (yes, it’s been one month since the warfare started) shows the fluctuations caused by the start of invasion which took place on February 24th We may say that the true rise came few days later, as negotiations of cease-fire haven’t changed a thing and sanctions have begun to impact the markets. Further developments containing some signals of a ceasefire appeared not to coincide with the reality heading price of natural gas to a next rise. Natural Gas Price Chat (TTF) – monthly 24/02-23/03 - +31% Natural Gas Price Chart (TTF) Daily 22-23/03/22 +18.5% Russian Roubel (RUB) – Forex Charts +11% Monthly chart shows a huge decline and strengthening of RUB. EUR/RUB Chart - Monthly +6% EUR/RUB Chart - Daily (24h) Source/Data: Investing.com, TradingView.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com  
Crude Oil Holds Its Breath Ahead of World Summits

Crude Oil Holds Its Breath Ahead of World Summits

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 24.03.2022 16:46
Current levels of oil and petroleum products are high. Given that, what can explain such a surprising drop in US crude inventories?Energy Market UpdatesCommercial crude oil reserves in the United States fell much more than expected in the week ended March 18, according to figures released on Wednesday by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).US crude inventories have shrunk by more than 2.5 million barrels, which implies greater demand and is obviously another bullish factor for crude oil prices. Such a decline in inventories is particularly remarkable as the American strategic reserves have also recorded a significant drop. This is the 25th consecutive week of falling strategic reserves since the Biden administration started to make those adjustments in an attempt to relieve the market.(Source: Investing.com)WTI Crude Oil (CLK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart)Furthermore, some additional figures extracted from the same EIA report were released and surprised the markets.These are US Gasoline Reserves, which plunged by about 2.95 million barrels over a week, while the market was not even forecasting a two-million decline.(Source: Investing.com)Thus, US exports jumped by more than 30% compared to the previous week, not only due to large flows to Europe to replace Russian barrels, but also marked by a significant rebound in Asian demand.RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)Beware that a NATO summit, a G7 summit, and a European Union summit are being held on Thursday, when the various countries could set a new round of sanctions against Moscow.So, how will black gold progress from now on? Do you think that the on-going negotiations with Iran and Venezuela could flood the market with additional barrels? Let us know in the comments!That’s all folks for today. Happy trading!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Is There Any Gold in Virtual Worlds Like Metaverse?

Is There Any Gold in Virtual Worlds Like Metaverse?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 25.03.2022 12:15
Imagine all the people… living life in the Metaverse. Once we immerse ourselves in the digital sphere, gold may go out of fashion. Or maybe not?Do you already have your avatar? If not, maybe you should consider creating one, as the Metaverse is coming! What is the Metaverse? It is a digital, three-dimensional world where people are represented by avatars, a network of 3D virtual worlds focused on social connection, the next evolution of the internet, “extended reality,” and the latest buzzword in the marketplace since Facebook changed its name to Meta. If you still have no idea what I’m talking about, you can watch this or just Spielberg’s Ready Player One.The idea of personalities being uploaded online is an intriguing concept, isn’t it? In this vision, people meet with others, play, and simply hang out in a digital world. Imagine friends turning group chats on Messenger or WhatsApp into group meetups in the Metaverse of family gatherings in virtual homes. Ultimately, people will probably be doing pretty much everything there, except eating, sleeping, and using the restroom.Sounds scary? For people in their 30s and older who were fascinated by The Matrix, it does. However, this is really happening. The augmented reality technology market is expected to grow from $47 billion in 2019 to $1.5 trillion in 2030, mainly thanks to the development of the Metaverse. China’s virtual goods and services market is expected to be worth almost $250 billion this year and $370 billion in the next four years.In a sense, it had to happen as the next phase of the digital revolution. You see, we now experience much of life on the two-dimensional screens of our laptops and smartphones. The Metaverse moves us from a flat and boring 2D to a 3D virtual universe, where we can visualize and experience things with a more natural user interface. Let’s take shopping as an example. Instead of purchasing items on Amazon, customers could enter a virtual shop, see and touch all products in 3D, and buy whatever they wanted (actually, Walmart launched its own 3D shopping experience in 2018).OK, we get the idea, but why does Metaverse matter, putting aside sociological or philosophical issues related to transferring our minds into the digital world? Well, it might strongly affect every aspect of business and life, just as the internet did earlier. Here are a couple of examples. Famous brands, like Dolce & Gabbana, are designing clothes and jewelry for the digital world. Some artists are giving concerts in virtual reality. You could also visit some museums virtually, and instead of taking a business trip, you can digitally teleport to remote locations to meet with your co-workers’ avatars.Finally, what does the Metaverse imply for the gold market? Well, it’s difficult to grasp all the possible implications right now. However, the main threat is clear: as people immerse deeper and deeper into the digital world, gold could become obsolete for many users. Please note that cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are and will continue to be widely used as payment methods in the Metaverse.However, there are some caveats here. First, the invention and spread of the internet didn’t sink gold. Actually, the internet enabled gold to be widely traded by investors all over the world. Just take a look at the chart below. Although gold was in a bear market in the 1990s and struggled during the dot-com bubble, it rallied after the bubble burst.Second, the digital world didn’t kill the analog reality. Despite digital streaming of music, vinyl record sales soared last year, reaching a record high in a few decades. The development of the Metaverse could trigger a similar backlash and a return to tangible goods like gold.Third, some segments of the Metaverse look like bubbles. Maybe I’m just too old, but why the heck would anybody spend hundreds of thousands, or even millions of dollars to buy items in the virtual world? These items include virtual real estates (CNBC says that sales of real estate in the metaverse topped $500 million last year and could double this year), digital pieces of art or even tweets (yup, the founder of Twitter sold the first tweet ever for just under $3 million)! It does not make any sense to me, as I can right-click and download a copy of the same digital files (like a PNG file of a grey pet rock) for which people pay thousands and millions of dollars.Of course, certain items could increase the utility of the game or virtual experience, but my bet is that at least some buyers simply speculate on prices, expecting that they will be able to resell these items to greater fools. When this digital gold rush ends – and given the Fed’s tightening cycle, it may happen in the not-so-distant future – real gold could laugh last.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
S&P 500 Has Been Moving Up For A While. What's Next?

S&P 500 Has Been Moving Up For A While. What's Next?

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 28.03.2022 15:55
  Stocks extended their short-term uptrend on Friday, but this week we may see some more uncertainty and a possible profit-taking action. The S&P 500 index gained 0.53% on Friday following its Thursday’s advance of 1.4%. The broad stock market’s gauge extended its short-term uptrend after breaking above the 4,500 level. It gained over 380 points from the Mar. 14 local low of around 4,162. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we may see another correction and a profit-taking action at some point. There’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict, but investors were recently jumping back into stocks despite that geopolitical uncertainty. This morning the index is expected to open virtually flat after an overnight advance followed by its retracement. The nearest important resistance level is at around 4,550-4,600, marked by the previous local highs. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,400-4,450. The S&P 500 index trades closer to its January-February local highs along the 4,600 level, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Remains Above the 4,500 Level Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. It is trading close to the new local high. Potential resistance level is at around 4,585, marked by the previous highs. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. We are maintaining our profitable long position from the 4,340 level, as we are still expecting a bullish price action in the near-term. However, to protect our gain, we decided to move the stop-loss (take profit) and price target levels higher. (our premium Stock Trading Alert includes details of our trading position along with the stop-loss and profit target levels) (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index will likely open virtually flat this morning. However, the futures contract retraced its overnight advance, so we may see more uncertainty and a potential profit-taking action. The war In Ukraine remains a negative factor for the markets. The global markets will also be waiting for this Friday’s monthly jobs data release. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index extended its uptrend on Friday; this morning the futures contract retreated from its new local high. We are maintaining our profitable long position (opened on Feb. 22 at 4,340), but we moved stop-loss (take profit) and price target levels higher. We are still expecting an advance from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Crypto trading volume exceeds $100 billion in 24 hours as bulls flock to the market

Crypto trading volume exceeds $100 billion in 24 hours as bulls flock to the market

FXStreet News FXStreet News 28.03.2022 16:34
Proponents noted a 63.07% spike in the total transaction volume of cryptocurrencies across exchanges. Coinmarketcap data reveals a month-on-month increase of 4.75% in crypto trading volume. Bitcoin price crossed $47,000, fueled by $200 million shorts liquidated across exchanges. Bitcoin price is rallying, fueled by a frenzy of massive short liquidations on crypto exchanges. Proponents believe bulls have flocked to the market, as transaction volume exceeded $100 billion. Bitcoin price pushes past $47,000 in recent rally Bitcoin price crossed key resistance to hit a high above $47,000 in a rally fueled by the liquidation of millions of short positions. Analysts at the crypto intelligence platform Santiment observed a massive liquidation of shorts across exchanges at 1 pm and 6 pm UTC across crypto exchanges on March 27, 2022. Analysts argue that Bitcoin’s recent price rally to $47,000 was a response to liquidation in large quantities over the weekend. The average funding rate entered the long zone, where uncertainty among market participants increased. Therefore, analysts conclude that Bitcoin shorts have fueled the asset’s ongoing rally. Bitcoin and altcoin shorts liquidatedColin Wu, a Chinese journalist, reported a spike in the total transaction volume of cryptocurrencies, exceeding $100 billion over the past 24 hours. Wu referred to data from Coinmarketcap and observed a 63.07% increase in crypto transaction volume compared to March 26, 2022. The total crypto market value now exceeds $2.12 trillion. Historically, analysts have witnessed high transaction activity when large wallet investors flock to the market or scoop up crypto. Bloomberg analysts argue that Bitcoin looks overbought, compared to its 50-day Moving Average. Bitcoin price crossed key resistance at $45,000 in the current rally, erasing its losses for the year. FXStreet analysts have evaluated Bitcoin price and predicted the start of a new uptrend in the asset, as it crossed the $45,000 level.
Tesla Stock News and Forecast: Shareholders to vote on TSLA stock split

Tesla Stock News and Forecast: Shareholders to vote on TSLA stock split

FXStreet News FXStreet News 28.03.2022 16:34
Tesla stock surges on news of a potential stock split dividend.TSLA is up at $1,066 of +5.6% in Monday premarket trading.Tesla stock has rallied sharply from early March lows.Tesla stock (TSLA) is back to the top of the social media chatter on Monday, usurping GameStop and AMC in the process. The stock is surging this morning on news of a potential stock split dividend. Tesla previously did a 5-for-1 stock split back in August 2020, and other companies have followed suit, notably Amazon. This makes it easier for retail investors to own the stock when it has a more affordable share price.Tesla Stock News: Stock split imminent?Tesla's board of directors has already approved the plan to split the shares for a stock dividend and will put it to a vote of the shareholders. The news was well-received by retail shareholders who tend to be more active in the premarket than other holders. A stock dividend is exactly what it sounds like. Instead of receiving cash, shareholders receive new shares in the company. This means companies do not use up cash to fund the dividend. Stock dividends are usually dilutive to earnings per share (EPS) as more shares are in issue after the event. Tesla is up nearly 6% before the open. It is not all plain sailing though for the EV giant as more Chinese covid lockdowns are announced. Tesla will close its Shanghai giga plant for at least a day on the back of lockdowns in the city. Tesla Stock ForecastA powerful rally with the next target now set at $1,210. This would set up Tesla's (TSLA) stock to break to all-time highs. Currently, on the longer-term time horizon, the narrative is still bearish with a series of lower highs and lower lows. So breaking $1,210 turns Tesla bullish on all time horizons. Naturally, it is already bullish in the short term after last week's strong rally. Holding above $945 is the key pivot for medium and long-term traders. TSLA 20-hour chartThere is a short-term pivot at $1,000, with high volume at this level. Below sees a volume gap to $945, the key as mentioned above. Tesla chart, 15-minute
Who Benefits Most From the Russia-Ukraine War?

Who Benefits Most From the Russia-Ukraine War?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 28.03.2022 17:25
With the unrest in the Black Sea basin, it appears that there are two more cross-trade wars in the world. These are about energy and currency.Crude oil prices, down most of Friday, finally ended the week higher after a huge fire broke out at oil facilities in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, following attacks by Yemeni rebels.The great winner of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is undoubtedly the United States, which now seems to be taking advantage of Europe’s moment of weakness.The latter is indeed currently switching its energy supplies from Russian natural gas (pipeline-transported) to the much more polluting and much more expensive US shale gas. The reasons are much higher extraction (fracking) and transportation costs since it requires additional processes such as liquefaction/degasification and the deployment of more port terminals that are able to provide such steps – also much more energy-consuming – linked to Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) supplies.(Source: ResearchGate.net)By doing so, the European Union is going to increase its dependence on the US whilst a new and stronger block (including Asia) emerges on the east side.As a result, we have already started to witness dedollarisation in international trade, with the petroyuan set to dethrone the heavily-printed petrodollar.No wonder that the US dollar supply surge has ended up triggering uncontrollable and probably still underestimated inflation. As a result, this monetary virus is spreading through the global economy at a faster pace than any other variant! WTI Crude Oil (CLK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart)“Inflation is like toothpaste. Once it's out, you can hardly get it back in again. So, the best thing is not to squeeze too hard on the tube.” – Dr Karl Otto PöhlThat’s all folks for today. Happy trading!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Volatility Retreats As Stocks & Commodities Rally

Volatility Retreats As Stocks & Commodities Rally

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 28.03.2022 21:32
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index. It is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates that are utilized to generate a 30-day forward projection of volatility. The VIX allows us to gauge market sentiment or the degree of fear among market participants. As the Volatility Index VIX goes up, fear increases, and as it goes down, fear dissipates.Commodities and equities are both showing renewed strength on the heels of global interest rate increases. Inflation shows no sign of abating as energy, metals, food products, and housing continues their upward bias.During the last 18-months, the VIX has been trading between its upper resistance of 36.00 and its lower support of 16.00. As the Volatility Index VIX falls, fear subsides, and money flows back into stocks.VIX – VOLATILITY S&P 500 INDEX – CBOE – DAILY CHARTSPY RALLIES +10%The SPY has enjoyed a sharp rally back up after touching its Fibonacci 1.618% support based on its 2020 Covid price drop. Money has been flowing back into stocks as investors seem to be adapting to the current geopolitical environment and the change in global central bank lending rate policy.Resistance on the SPY is the early January high near 475, while support remains solidly in place at 414. March marks the 2nd anniversary of the 2020 Covid low that SPY made at 218.26 on March 23, 2020.SPY – SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST - ARCA – DAILY CHARTBERKSHIRE HATHAWAY RECORD-HIGH $538,949!Berkshire Hathaway is up +20.01% year to date compared to the S&P 500 -4.68%. Berkshire’s Warren Buffet has also been on a shopping spree, and investors seem to be comforted that he is buying stocks again. Buffet reached a deal to buy insurer Alleghany (y) for $11.6 billion and purchased nearly a 15% stake in Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $8 billion.These acquisitions seem to be well-timed as insurers and banks tend to benefit from rising interest rates, and Occidental generates the bulk of its cash flow from the production of crude oil.As technical traders, we look exclusively at the price action to provide specific clues as to the current trend or a potential change in trend. With that said, Berkshire is a classic example of not fighting the market. As Berkshire continues to make new highs, its’ trend is up!BRK.A – BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. - NYSE – DAILY CHARTCOMMODITY DEMAND REMAINS STRONGInflation continues to run at 40-year highs, and it appears that it will take more than one FED rate hike to subdue prices. Since price is King, we definitely want to ride this trend and not fight it. It is always nice to buy on a pullback, but the energy markets at this point appear to be rising exponentially. The XOP ETF gave us some nice buying opportunities earlier at the Fibonacci 0.618% $71.78 and the 0.93% $93.13 of the COVID 2020 range high-low.Remember, the trend is your friend, as many a trader has gone broke trying to pick or sell a top before its time! Well-established uptrends like the XOP are perfect examples of how utilizing a trailing stop can keep a trader from getting out of the market too soon but still offer protection in case of a sudden trend reversal.XOP – SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORE & PRODUCT – ARCA – DAILY CHARTKNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, AND APPLICATION ARE NEEDEDIt is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and somewhat surprisingly, we entered five new trades last week, four of which have now hit their first profit target levels. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Furthermore, successfully trading is not limited to when to buy or sell stocks or commodities. Money and risk management play a critical role in becoming a consistently profitable trader. Correct position sizing utilizing stop-loss orders helps preserve your investment capital and allows traders to manage their portfolios according to their desired risk parameters. Additionally, scaling out of positions by taking profits and moving stop-loss orders to breakeven can complement ones’ success.WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Markets are betting the Fed has it wrong again

Intraday Market Analysis – JPY Struggles For Bids

Jing Ren Jing Ren 29.03.2022 08:40
USDJPY seeks support The Japanese yen recouped some losses after a drop in February’s unemployment rate. The pair surged to August 2015’s high and the psychological level of 125.00. An overwhelmingly overbought RSI may cause a pullback if short-term buyers start to unwind their bets. As the market mood stays upbeat, trend followers could be waiting to jump in at a discount. 122.20 is the closest level if the greenback needs to gather support. A break above the current resistance would propel the pair to new highs above 127.00. AUDUSD hits major resistance The Australian dollar stalls as caution prevails ahead of major economic data. The rally slowed down at last October’s peak at 0.7550. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling weighs on the Aussie. The bulls may see a pullback as an opportunity to accumulate in hope of a new round of rally. 0.7400 from the latest bullish breakout would be key support should this happen. On the upside, an extended rally could propel the pair to last June’s highs around 0.7770 and pave the way for a reversal in the medium-term. US 100 to test major resistance Growth stocks rose amid a sell-off in the bond market. Short-term sentiment remains bullish after a series of higher lows which indicates sustained buying interest. The Nasdaq 100 is heading to the daily resistance at 15050. A bearish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the rally, foreshadowing a potential retracement. 14600 is the support and its breach may trigger a sell-off towards 14200 which sits at the base of the recent breakout. A close above the said hurdle may put the index back on track in the weeks to come.
Bitcoin has become a leading indicator of investor sentiment

Bitcoin has become a leading indicator of investor sentiment

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 29.03.2022 08:51
BTC is up 4% on Monday, ending the day around $48K, and corrected by about 1% to $47.5K on Tuesday morning. Ethereum was up 1.8% in the last 24 hours to $3.4K. Terra is a leader of the day According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 1% over the day, to $2.15 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index fell by 0.1 points to 42.1%. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed rose by 11 points over the day, to 60, and moved from neutral level to the "greed" grade. On Tuesday, the index dropped to 56 points. Among the leading altcoins, Terra soared by 10%, Doge corrected by 2%. In most others, there is a slight correction in the growth of the last days, but they are in positive territory over the last day. Bitcoin continued to rise on Monday after it broke through the strong resistance of the February highs around $45K in the previous evening. By the end of the day, BTC has renewed the highs of early January above $48K, having won back the decline since the beginning of the year. Bitcoin is correlating with S&P500 The growth of the first cryptocurrency rested on the 200-day moving average ($48.2K). Confident consolidation above it promises to strengthen and expand the growth of the entire crypto market and breathe fresh impetus into the growth of bitcoin. In December, we saw a false break, but then the price levels were higher, and corrective sentiment intensified in the stock markets. Now Bitcoin is growing along with the rise of stock indices and often even acts as a leading indicator of investor sentiment. According to Arcane Research, BTC's correlation with the S&P 500 stock indicator recently hit a 17-month high. According to CoinShares, institutions invested $193 million in crypto funds last week, and it was the most significant amount in three months. Glassnode believes that the Bitcoin trend has already changed to bullish, as evidenced by the increase in the number of addresses accumulating BTC.
USDCHF - Swiss Franc Strengthens, XAUUSD Rebounces, Will UK100 Start To Gain Consequently?

USDCHF - Swiss Franc Strengthens, XAUUSD Rebounces, Will UK100 Start To Gain Consequently?

Jing Ren Jing Ren 30.03.2022 07:41
USDCHF tests support The US dollar edged lower as traders ditched its safe-haven appeal. The pair met strong support at 0.9260 over the 30-day moving average. A break above the immediate resistance at 0.9340 prompted short-term sellers to cover their positions, opening the door for potential bullish continuation. A break above 0.9370 could bring the greenback back to the 12-month high at 0.9470. 0.9260 is major support in case of hesitation and its breach could invalidate the current rebound. XAUUSD struggles for support Gold struggles as risk appetite returns amid ceasefire talks. A fall below 1940 forced those hoping for a swift rebound to bail out. On the daily chart, gold’s struggle to stay above the 30-day moving average suggests a lack of buying power. Sentiment grows cautious as the metal tentatively breaks the psychological level of 1900. A drop below 1880 could make bullion vulnerable to a broader sell-off to 1850. An oversold RSI attracted some bargain hunters, but buyers need to lift offers around 1940 before they could expect a rebound. UK 100 heads towards recent peak The FTSE 100 continues upward as Russia promises to de-escalate. A bullish close above the origin of the February sell-off at 7550 has put the index back on track. Sentiment has become increasingly upbeat over a series of higher highs. The lack of selling pressure would send the index back to this year’s high at 7690. A bullish breakout may resume the uptrend in the medium term. As the RSI shot into the overbought zone, profit-taking could drive the price down temporarily and 7460 would be the closest support.