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If The Bank Of England Hike Interest Rates Again Later This Month Will Exert Downward Pressure On The EUR/GBP Cross

If The Bank Of England Hike Interest Rates Again Later This Month Will Exert Downward Pressure On The EUR/GBP Cross

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.03.2023 10:31
EUR/GBP drifts lower for the fifth straight day and drops to a nearly two-week low on Tuesday. The GBP’s relative outperformance comes amid rising bets for additional rate hikes by the BoE. The mixed UK jobs data fails to push back against hawkish BoE expectations or lend any support. Speculations for more jumbo rate hikes by the ECB warrant caution for aggressive bearish traders. The EUR/GBP cross remains under some selling pressure for the fifth successive day on Tuesday and drops to a nearly two-week low during the early European session. The selling bias remains unabated following the release of the mixed UK monthly employment details and drags spot prices below the 0.8800 mark, with bears now eyeing to challenge a technically significant 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). In fact, the UK Office for National Statistics reported that the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits fell by 11.2K in February, less than the 12.4 decline anticipated. The slight disappointment, however, was offset by a sharp downward revision of the previous month's reading to show a drop of 30.3K in the Claimant Count Change against the 12.9 fall estimated. Furthermore, the jobless rate held steady at 3.7% during the three months to January as compared to a modest uptick to 3.8%, while the rolling three-month average indicated that the UK wages are cooling. Nevertheless, the data is strong enough to allow the Bank of England (BoE) to hike interest rates again later this month, which continues to underpin the British Pound and exerts downward pressure on the EUR/GBP cross. Apart from this, a goodish pickup in the US Dollar demand is seen weighing on the shared currency, which further contributes to the heavily offered tone surrounding the EUR/GBP cross. That said, the recent hawkish comments by several European Central Bank (ECB) officials, stressing the need for more interest rate hikes beyond March, could lend some support to the Euro. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bearish bets ahead of the ECB monetary policy meeting, scheduled on Thursday. The focus will then shift to the BoE meeting next week, which should help determine the next leg of a directional move for the cross. Hence, any subsequent decline is more likely to find decent support near the 100-day SMA, which should act as a pivotal point ahead of the key central bank event risks.
The USD/MXN Pair Could Then Aim To Surpass The February Monthly Swing High

The USD/MXN Pair Could Then Aim To Surpass The February Monthly Swing High

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.03.2023 10:25
USD/MXN gains traction for the fourth straight day and trades near a one-month high set on Monday. Bulls now await a move beyond the 100-day SMA and 38.2% Fibo. confluence before placing fresh bets. Weakness back below the 18.35 horizontal support is needed to offset the near-term positive outlook. The USD/MXN pair attracts some buying for the fourth successive day on Tuesday and maintains its bid tone through the early part of the European session. The pair steadily climbs back above the 19.00 mark and remains well within the striking distance of over a one-month top touched on Monday. Given that oscillators on the daily chart are holding in the positive territory and are still far from being in the overbought zone, the technical setup favours bullish traders. That said, the overnight failures to find acceptance above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the July 2022-March 2023 downfall warrant caution. This makes it prudent to wait for a convincing break through the said confluence barrier before positioning for any further appreciating move. The USD/MXN pair could then aim to surpass the February monthly swing high, around the 19.30 region and climb to the 50% Fibo. level, around the mid-19.00s. The upward trajectory could get extended towards testing the 19.75-19.80 horizontal support breakpoint, which now coincides with the 61.8% Fibo. level and should act as a pivotal point. A convincing breakthrough will set the stage for an extension of the recent strong recovery move from sub-18.00 levels, or a multi-year low touched last week. On the flip side, the 23.6% Fibo. level, around the 18.65 area, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 18.35 horizontal support. Sustained weakness below will suggest that a one-week-old uptrend has run out of steam and make the USD/MXN pair vulnerable to retesting the 18.00-17.90 support zone. USD/MXN daily chart  
Is Gold Ready to Shine Again? US CPI and Fed Policy Insights

Technical Analysis Of Gold: Gold Price Recovery Remains Elusive

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.03.2023 08:53
Gold price struggles to keep the early Asian session pullback from five-week high, picks up bids of late. Interest rate futures suggest Fed policy pivot in March, versus the last week’s expectations of 50 bps rate hike. Corrective bounce in yields probe XAU/USD bulls ahead of US CPI for February. Gold price (XAU/USD) remains mildly offered as traders struggle to justify mixed catalysts ahead of the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data during early Tuesday. That said, the XAU/USD drops 0.25% intraday to $1,909 during the first loss-making day in four heading into the European session. The precious metal’s latest losses could be linked to the US Dollar’s corrective bounce, while tracing the US Treasury bond yields. US 10-year Treasury bond yields print mild gains of around 3.58%, after bouncing off the monthly bottom of 3.418%, whereas the two-year counterpart rebounds from the lowest levels since September 2022 to print mild gains of around 4.19% by the press time. It should be noted that the US two-year Treasury bond yields dropped the most since 1987 the previous day. On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) bounces off one-month low to snap three-day downtrend near 103.90, up 0.27% intraday at the latest. It’s worth observing that the fears emanated from the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the Signature Bank fallouts have recently reversed the hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and challenge the DXY bulls of late. “Traders see 33% chance Fed holds rates this month, market pricing shows rate cuts expected as early as June,” said CME. On the same line Reuters mentioned that the US Fed Fund Futures have priced in a 69% chance of a 25-bps hike at next week's Fed policy meeting, with a more than 30% probability of a pause,” said Reuters. The news also added that the market last week was poised for a 50-bps increase prior to the SVB collapse. Also likely to weigh on the Gold price could be the latest fears surrounding China and Russia as the UK, the US and Australia over the nuclear submarine issues while Washington meets Taiwan leader. However, hopes of more investment in China and the recently increasing hopes of the dragon nation’s gradual recovery, as backed by Bloomberg, favor the XAU/USD bulls. Moving on, the US CPI will be more important for the USD/CHF pair traders as the Fed bets have already reversed. As per the market forecasts, the headline US CPI is likely to ease to 6.0% YoY versus 6.4% prior while CPI ex Food & Energy may slide to 5.5% YoY from 5.6% prior. Gold price technical analysis The downside break of a two-day-old ascending trend channel joins bearish MACD signal and firmer RSI to keep Gold sellers hopeful. However, the 21-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) restricts immediate downside of the XAU/USD near the $1,900 threshold. Following that, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the metal’s upside from February 28, close to $1,873, can act as a buffer before directing the Gold price towards March 06 swing high of near $1,858. It should be noted, however, that the 200-EMA level surrounding $1,851 could act as the last defense for the XAU/USD buyers. Alternatively, Gold price recovery remains elusive unless the quote stays below the stated channel’s lower line, close to $1,921 at the latest. In a case where the XAU/USD remains firmer past $1,921, the previous monthly high surrounding $1,960 could lure the bulls. Gold price: Hourly chart Trend: Bullish
The USD/CNH Pair Remains On The Bear’s Trend

The USD/CNH Pair Remains On The Bear’s Trend

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.03.2023 08:51
USD/CNH portrays corrective bounce near one-month low, mildly bid of late. 50-DMA probes sellers but clear downside break of five-week-old ascending trend line, bearish MACD signals push back buyers. 100-DMA, monthly high act as final defence of China Yuan pair bears. USD/CNH prints mild gains around 6.8660 as it struggles to defend the bounce off a one-month low during early Tuesday. In doing so, the offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH) pair justifies the bearish MACD signals, as well as the downside break of a five-week-old ascending support line, now resistance, while portraying a rebound from the 50-DMA. That said, the USD/CNH pair’s latest recovery remains elusive unless the quote stays below the support-turned-resistance line from early February, around 6.9350 by the press time. Even if the Yuan pair crosses the 6.9350 hurdle, the 100-DMA and the monthly high, respectively around 6.9620 and 6.9970 could test the bulls. It should be observed that the 7.0000 psychological magnet acts as an extra upside filter before giving control to the USD/CNH bulls. On the flip side, a daily closing below the 50-DMA, around 6.8360 at the latest, appears necessary to recall the bears. Following that, multiple tops marked during late January around 6.7900 can act as an intermediate halt before directing the USD/CNH bears towards the year 2023 low, marked in January around 6.6975. Overall, USD/CNH remains on the bear’s radar even if the 50-DMA challenges the pair’s immediate downside. USD/CNH: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected
USD/CAD - Canadian economy added 41,400 jobs beating expectations

USD/CAD Pair Has Delivered A Sheer Downside Move

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.03.2023 08:48
USD/CAD is facing hurdles in stretching its recovery above 1.3740, volatility is expected ahead of US Inflation. Federal Reserve could continue a smaller rate-hike regime to avoid the United States recession. Bank of Canada may be required to resume its policy-tightening process to tame inflation recovery. USD/CAD might display a downside momentum if RSI (14) skids into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00. The USD/CAD pair is facing barricades while extending its recovery above the immediate resistance of 1.3740 in the early European session. A sideways performance is expected from the Loonie asset till the release of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Earlier, the asset rebounded after a five-day low of 1.3677 as investors got anxious ahead of the US inflation release and improved appeal for safe-haven assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is displaying a back-and-forth action below 104.00. It seems that the USD Index is gathering strength to stretch its recovery as the release of the US Inflation will prepare the ground for the interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve (Fed), which is scheduled for next week. S&P500 futures are attempting to hold gains generated in the Asian session. However, the risk appetite is still weak as global stocks are facing the heat of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVG) collapse. The return delivered on 10-year US Treasury bonds has rebounded to near 3.57% on hopes that US inflation data could fuel safe-haven's appeal. Upside risk for US inflation looks favored The major catalyst of the week- US inflation, will release on Tuesday and is expected to deliver a power-pack action in the FX domain. Considering the resilience in the overall demand, strong employment bills, and upbeat strong labor market, an acceleration in the US inflationary pressures cannot be ruled out. Last week, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a significant jump in the number of payrolls generated by the US economy in February than anticipated. The Unemployment Rate increased to 3.6%. And, Average Hourly Earnings were increased to 4.6%, lower than the consensus of 4.7%. Despite an increase in the jobless rate, the US labor market looks upbeat as firms are continuously escalating their recruitment process to add more people. And, employment bills are still in a rising trend, which indicates that households are equipped with sufficient funds to trigger inflation again. Analysts at Wells Fargo expect “Another monthly increase of 0.4% in the overall CPI in February, which would put the annual rate at 6.0%. We still see inflation set to grind lower, but the process is likely to be bumpy and take time. Despite some directional improvement over the past couple of quarters, prices are still growing well above the Fed's 2% target, and the tight labor market suggests that there are still inflationary pressures that could forestall a full return to 2% inflation.” Upbeat labor market to compel Bank of Canada to rollback rate-hiking process The Bank of Canada (BoC) has already confirmed that the current monetary policy is restrictive enough to contain Canadian inflation. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem decided to allow the current monetary policy to display its potential and has therefore kept monetary policy steady in March. However, a surprise increase in the Employment numbers and higher employment cost index indicate that inflation could be propelled again. Along with an unchanged monetary policy, Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem kept the room open for more rates if inflation surprises to the upside. Meanwhile, oil prices have witnessed a sell-off as the street is worried about the overall demand ahead. It is worth noting that Canada is a leading exporter of oil to the US and lower oil prices would impact the Canadian dollar. USD/CAD technical outlook USD/CAD has delivered a sheer downside move after a breakdown of the Head and Shoulder chart pattern formed on a two-hour scale. The asset rebounded but has now found barricades near the horizontal resistance plotted from March 08 low at 1.3745. The US Dollar bulls are expected to find a cushion near support placed from March 01 high at 1.3659. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3745 is expected to act as a major resistance for the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the 40.00-60.00 range. A breakdown into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00 will trigger the downside momentum.
Japanese yen increased by over 0.5% on Friday. Japanese monetary policy may change soon

The Corrective Downfall In USD/JPY Was Started Earlier This Week

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.03.2023 08:45
USD/JPY is taking a pause on a corrective phase amid softer US Treasury yields. Surging borrowing costs are causing liquidity traps. US CPI data will pave the way for the next FOMC meeting.  USD/JPY rebounded after hitting the monthly low of 132.34. The short covering just comes ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. The corrective downfall in USD/JPY was started earlier this week on the back of falling US Treasury bond yields. The Silicon Valley Bank’s (SVB) fallout has prompted investors to revisit their rate-hiking expectations about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) plans to increase interest rates during the March FOMC meeting., which was surging exponentially prior to the last Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release.  When borrowing costs increase, it's natural for highly leveraged businesses to experience pressure in repaying their debts. The recent rise in US Treasury bond yields, which reflects the lending rates in the US economy, has resulted in a decrease in the value of US government bonds purchased during a low-yield market period. Therefore, the credit side has loosened the original value amid surging yield and a liquidity trap is emerging among the businesses. Fundamentally, this situation is quite similar to the UK’s bond market incident that happened a while ago, where the pension funds have struggled with liquidity. Since the Fed commentary is muted for further clarity on the underlying US financial ecosystem, investors are refraining to put fresh bets on risky assets. Meanwhile, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is on the cards. The market is expecting a slightly downbeat CPI release from prior releases on Tuesday. As it is always said “devil in the details”, market participants will likely jump to the service-led inflationary portion, since the Fed has made concerns regarding this in many instances.
SNB stands firm in the face of market turbulence with 50bp rate hike

The US CPI Will Be More Important For The USD/CHF Pair Traders

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.03.2023 08:43
USD/CHF bounces off five-week low to print the first daily gain in five. US Dollar traces corrective bounce off yields to pare recent losses. Interest rate futures raise doubts on further USD/CHF advances unless US inflation markets notable jump. USD/CHF seesaws around intraday high during the first positive day in five heading into Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair traces the US Dollar’s latest corrective bounce amid a recovery in the US Treasury bond yields ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. It should be noted, however, that the recently downbeat market concerns surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) seem to test the buyers ahead of the key US data. That said, US 10-year Treasury bond yields print mild gains of around 3.58%, after bouncing off the monthly bottom of 3.418%, whereas the two-year counterpart rebounds from the lowest levels since September 2022 to print mild gains of around 4.19% by the press time. It should be noted that the US two-year Treasury bond yields dropped the most since 1987 the previous day. A major slump in the US Treasury bond yields could be linked to the fears emanated from the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the Signature Bank fallouts, despite the US authorities’ defense. While talking about the Fed bets, CME said, “Traders see 33% chance Fed holds rates this month, market pricing shows rate cuts expected as early as June.” On the same line Reuters mentioned that yhe US Fed Fund Futures have priced in a 69% chance of a 25-bps hike at next week's Fed policy meeting, with a more than 30% probability of a pause,” said Reuters. The news also added that the market last week was poised for a 50-bps increase prior to the SVB collapse. Amid these plays, Wall Street closed mixed and so do stocks in the Asia-Pacific region while S&P 500 Future snap three-day downtrend by bouncing off the lowest levels since early January. Looking ahead, the US CPI will be more important for the USD/CHF pair traders as the Fed bets have already reversed. As per the market forecasts, the headline US CPI is likely to ease to 6.0% YoY versus 6.4% prior while CPI ex Food & Energy may slide to 5.5% YoY from 5.6% prior. Also read: US Inflation Preview: Five scenarios for trading the Core CPI whipsaw within the SVB storm Technical analysis A clear downside break of the five-week-old ascending support line, now resistance around 0.9335, keeps USD/CHF bears hopeful of testing the previous monthly low of 0.9060.     search   g_translate    
RBNZ preview: Fiscal spending argues for a hawkish 25bp hike

Further Downside Movement Of The Kiwi Pair (NZD/USD) Is expected

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.03.2023 08:37
NZD/USD holds lower ground near intraday low, snaps two-day winning streak. RSI retreat backs the Kiwi pair’s U-turn from 200-EMA, one-month-long resistance line. Receding bullish bias of MACD signals, failure to cross key upside hurdles keep sellers hopeful. Fortnight-old horizontal support area lures bears past 100-EMA break. NZD/USD sticks to mild losses near 0.6210 during the first downbeat day in three heading into Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the Kiwi pair struggles to break the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) amid sluggish trading hours. That said, the quote rose the most in nine weeks the previous day before retreating from 0.6265. The pullback moves could be linked to the NZD/USD pair’s inability to cross the 200-bar EMA, as well as a downward-sloping resistance line from mid-February. Adding strength to the pullback moves could be the RSI (14) retreat from the overbought territory, as well as the receding bullish bias of the MACD signals. It’s worth noting, however, that a clear downside break of the 100-bar EMA, around 0.6200 by the press time, becomes necessary for the NZD/USD bears to take control. Following that, a south-run towards the two-week-old horizontal support zone near 0.6130 and then to the monthly low of 0.6084 can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, the aforementioned trend line and 200-EMA restrict short-term NZD/USD recovery to around 0.6230 and 0.6245 in that order. In a case where NZD/USD remains firmer past 0.6245, the odds of witnessing a rally targeting the mid-February high of 0.6390 can’t be ruled out. NZD/USD: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected
Any Upside Momentum For AUD/USD Is Likely To Remain Capped At Monday’s High

Any Upside Momentum For AUD/USD Is Likely To Remain Capped At Monday’s High

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.03.2023 08:34
AUD/USD hits the high at 0.6716 and retraces. Risk-averse environments keeping a lid on AUD/USD price appreciation. US CPI could reinforce the pair to break major support at 0.6560.    AUD/USD hits the ceiling on a descending trendline after a rebound from the four-month low at 0.6564. The sharp rebounds came on Monday upon the US Dollar's weakness. Receding bets for a 50-bps Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike have prompted AUD/USD to surge higher, although the downside bias is likely to remain intact, in a risk-averse environment led by SVB fallout.   Any upside momentum for AUD/USD is likely to remain capped at Monday’s high around the 0.6713 mark, which is a support-turned-resistance and coincides with a descending trendline starting from February on a daily chart. A break above will lead the pair to confront the next resistance at around 0.6766 which is pegged with 21-day Moving Average (DMA). Both the 21-DMA and 50-DMA are pegged above the current price level, which is technically exerting overhead price pressure on AUD/USD and also confirming the bearish bias for the pair.  Downside support is seen at 0.6560, which is a key support level for the AUD/USD. A convincing break below will likely put the pair in a vacuum without any major support for a long distance. Regarding the said level, the pair has respected it on the last three attempts and AUD/USD looks resilient above that price point. The intermediate support lies at the psychological 0.6500 level.     AUD/USD: Daily chart  
A Slump In The Turkish Current Account Balance Allowed The USD/TRY Pair To Print The First Daily Gains

A Slump In The Turkish Current Account Balance Allowed The USD/TRY Pair To Print The First Daily Gains

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.03.2023 08:31
USD/TRY struggles for clear directions after snapping two-day downtrend trend previous day. Corrective bounce in US Treasury bond yields defends US Dollar bulls but talks of Fed policy pivot weigh on prices. An increase in the Turkish Current deficit probe Lira buyers ahead of US CPI. USD/TRY treads water around 18.95 during early Monday in Europe. In doing so, the Turkish Lira pair seek clear directions amid mixed catalysts from Turkiye and the US. Also likely to restrict the pair’s moves could be the cautious mood ahead of the key US inflation data, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February. It’s worth noting that a slump in the Turkish Current Account Balance for January, to $-9.849B versus $-5.91B, allowed the USD/TRY pair to print the first daily gains in three despite the broad US Dollar weakness. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped the most since mid-January as fears emanated from the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the Signature Bank. fallout, despite the US authorities’ defense, put a floor under the greenback. Adding strength to the US Dollar rebound could be the recently firmer US Treasury bond yields. US 10-year Treasury bond yields print mild gains of around 3.57%, after bouncing off the monthly bottom of 3.418%, whereas the two-year counterpart rebounds from the lowest levels since September 2022 to print mild gains of around 4.19% by the press time. It should be noted that the US two-year Treasury bond yields dropped the most since 1987 the previous day while the latest rebound could be a U-turn from the 200-DMA support ahead of important US data. Alternatively, the recently downbeat concerns surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy pivot, especially after the recent US government efforts to rescue the SVB and the Signature Bank seem to challenge the USD/TRY traders amid a sluggish session. “The US Fed Fund Futures have priced in a 69% chance of a 25-bps hike at next week's Fed policy meeting, with a more than 30% probability of a pause,” said Reuters while also adding that the market last week was poised for a 50-bps increase prior to the SVB collapse. On the same line could be the CME as it mentioned, “Traders see 33% chance Fed holds rates this month, market pricing shows rate cuts expected as early as June.” Looking forward, the US CPI will be important for intraday directions but major attention should be given to the risk catalysts and the yields. That said, the US CPI is likely to ease to 6.0% YoY versus 6.4% prior while CPI ex Food & Energy may slide to 5.5% YoY from 5.6% prior. Technical analysis Unless providing a daily close below the late 2021 peak surrounding 18.40, the USD/TRY bulls remain in the driver’s seat.
The Indian Rupee Pair Takes Clues From The Receding Fears Of Hawkish Fed Rate Moves

The Indian Rupee Pair Takes Clues From The Receding Fears Of Hawkish Fed Rate Moves

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.03.2023 08:29
USD/INR pares the biggest daily gains in seven weeks amid sluggish session. Indian equity rout, downbeat inflation data drowned Rupee the previous day despite broad US Dollar weakness. Fed pivot chatters highlight US CPI for February as SVB-led market fears ease. USD/INR sticks to mild losses near 82.35 as it consolidates the biggest daily gain in nearly two months during early Tuesday. In doing so, the Indian Rupee pair takes clues from the receding fears of hawkish Fed rate moves amid a sluggish session ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February. Interest rate futures hint at the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy pivot, especially after the recent fallout of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the Signature Bank. “The US Fed Fund Futures have priced in a 69% chance of a 25-bps hike at next week's Fed policy meeting, with a more than 30% probability of a pause,” said Reuters while also adding that the market last week was poised for a 50-bps increase prior to the SVB collapse. On the same line could be the CME as it mentioned, “Traders see 33% chance Fed holds rates this month, market pricing shows rate cuts expected as early as June.” On the other hand, the US Treasury bond yields’ corrective bounce should have underpinned the USD/INR pair’s run-up but couldn’t as the Indian Rupee (INR) pares the previous day’s gains, mainly levied due to the downbeat India Inflation data and the equity market rout. That said, India Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February, rose 6.44% YoY versus 6.35% expected and 6.52% prior. The receding inflation fears raised concerns that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may refrain from further rate hikes now that the Fed bets suggest a policy pivot. Even so, the Indian equities failed to cheer receding hopes of hawkish monetary policy actions amid the equity rout during early Monday. It should be noted that India’s benchmark BSE Sensex dropped to the five-month low the previous day before printing mild gains of around             58,300 by the press time. On a macro level, traders witnessed heavy bond buying the previous day as the US banking regulators rushed to defend the SVB and the Signature Bank after their fallouts. US banking regulators undertook joint actions to tame the risks emanating from SVB and Signature Bank during the weekend.  While announcing the plan, US President Joe Biden noted on Monday that investors in those banks will not be protected and reminded that "no one is above the law." However, the US President also vowed to take whatever action was needed to ensure the safety of the US banking system, per Reuters. Amid these plays, Wall Street closed mixed and the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains at the latest. Moving forward, India’s WPI inflation for February will precede the US CPI for the said month to direct immediate USD/INR moves. Given the latest blow to the hawkish Fed bets, any more softening of the US inflation numbers could allow the pair to recall the sellers. Technical analysis A daily closing beyond the convergence of the 100-DMA and 50-DMA, around 82.15-10 by the press time, keeps USD/INR bulls hopeful.
WTI Bulls Struggle To Cheer The Broadly Risk-On Mood

WTI Bulls Struggle To Cheer The Broadly Risk-On Mood

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 13.03.2023 08:47
WTI crude oil defends the previous day’s bounce off two-week low despite lacking upside momentum of late. Risk-on mood, receding hawkish Fed bets underpin WTI strength. US-China tension, cautious mood ahead of OPEC, EIA reports and US inflation probe energy buyers. WTI crude oil remains sidelined near $77.00 as bulls struggle to cheer the broadly risk-on mood and the US Dollar weakness during early Monday. Even so, the black gold defends the previous day’s rebound from a short-term support line ahead of the monthly Oil market reports from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The commodity prices initially dropped to the two-week low before bouncing off $74.90 on the US Dollar’s slump despite witnessing the better-than-forecast Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) reports. It should be noted that the fears emanating from the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank fallout drowned the US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar on Friday. However, the US Treasury Department, Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) undertook joint actions to tame the risks during the weekend.  While reacting to the US regulators’ actions, US President Joe Biden said, “American people and American businesses can have confidence that their bank deposits will be there when they need them.” Even so, the market’s concerns that the SVB and Signature Bank flagged fragile conditions of the US banks pushed back hopes of more rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and drowned the US Treasury bond yields despite the risk-on mood during early Monday. With this in mind, Goldman Sachs expects to rate hike in March while the Fed Fund Futures also cut previously upbeat odds favoring a 0.50% rate lift in the Fed rate in March. Elsewhere, a new term for China’s President Xi Jinping keeps the Sino-American tension on the table as he said earlier on Monday that they must resolutely oppose the interference of external forces, 'split' of Taiwan. The same raised fears of less energy demand from China and the US amid a lack of activity due to geopolitical tension. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures bounced off a 2.5-month low, up nearly 1.60% around 3,960 by the press time, whereas the US Treasury bond yields reverse the early-day rebound from monthly low amid fresh challenges for the hawkish Fed bets. Looking ahead, Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February to direct immediate market moves. Following that, the Retail Sales and preliminary readings of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March, up for publishing on Wednesday and Friday, will be crucial for WTI crude oil traders to watch for clear direction. Above all, monthly energy market reports from the OPEC and the EIA will be important for the WTI crude oil traders. Technical analysis Although a five-week-old support line restricts immediate WTI crude oil downside near $75.00, a daily closing beyond the 50-DMA hurdle surrounding $77.75 becomes necessary for the Crude Oil price to keep the buyers in the driver’s seat.
The USD/INR Pair Traders Could Be The Cautious Mood Ahead Of The Key Inflation Numbers For India And The US

The USD/INR Pair Traders Could Be The Cautious Mood Ahead Of The Key Inflation Numbers For India And The US

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 13.03.2023 08:39
USD/INR keeps the previous day’s U-turn from key DMAs to refresh multi-day lows, rebounds from intraday low of late. Cautious mood ahead of India CPI, mixed sentiment in Asia probes Rupee buyers. US Dollar bears the burden of SVB-inspired risk-on mood, receding hawkish Fed bets. USD/INR picks up bids to pare intraday losses around 81.95 during early Monday morning in Europe. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair struggles to cheer the US Dollar’s weakness amid mixed concerns in Asia, as well as the broad US Dollar weakness. Also challenging the pair traders could be the cautious mood ahead of the key inflation numbers for India and the US. Asia-Pacific equities trade mixed as they’re yet to overcome Friday’s bond and stock market rout, as well as bear the burden of China-linked fears. A new term for China’s President Xi Jinping keeps the Sino-American tension on the table as he said earlier on Monday that they must resolutely oppose the interference of external forces, 'split' of Taiwan. It’s worth mentioning that Wall Street saw the red on Friday while the US bond yields also dropped the most in a month amid fears emanating from the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank fallouts. However, the US Treasury Department, Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) took joint actions to tame the risks during the weekend.  While reacting to the US regulators’ actions, US President Joe Biden said, “American people and American businesses can have confidence that their bank deposits will be there when they need them.” Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures bounced off a 2.5-month low, up nearly 1.60% around 3,960 by the press time, whereas the US Treasury bond yields reverse the early-day rebound from monthly low amid fresh challenges for the hawkish Fed bets. That said, the fallout of the SVB and Signature Bank flagged fragile conditions of the US banks, which in turn pushed back hopes of more rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). With this in mind, Goldman Sachs expects to rate hike in March while the Fed Fund Futures also cut previously upbeat odds favoring a 0.50% rate lift in the Fed rate in March. Hence, the risk-on mood underpins the US Dollar’s weakness but the cautious mood ahead of India’s key inflation data and mixed sentiment in Asia challenges the USD/INR bears. Looking forward, India Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February precedes Tuesday’s WPI Inflation numbers and the US CPI for the said month to direct short-term USD/INR moves. In a case where the schedule data portray inflation fears, the US Dollar may pare some of its latest losses, which in turn probes the pair bears. Technical analysis USD/INR bears keep the reins unless witnessing a clear upside break of a convergence of the 50-DMA and 100-DMA, around 82.10-15 at the latest.
InstaForex's Ralph Shedler talks Euro against Japanese yen

Further Downside Movement Of The USD/JPY Pair Is Expected

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 13.03.2023 08:36
USD/JPY holds lower ground after refreshing a one-month bottom. U-turn from the DMAs, rejection of bullish channel and the strongest bearish MACD signals since early February to favor sellers. Early February tops may test Yen pair bears ahead of 50-SMA. Buyers remain off the table unless witnessing a clear break of 200-DMA. USD/JPY bears keep the reins for the third consecutive day heading into Monday’s European session. In doing so, the Yen pair seesaws around the lowest levels in one month, marked earlier in the day, as sellers poke the 134.00 threshold. A clear U-turn from the 200-DMA, as well as a downside break of the 100-DMA, joins a sustained downside break of a five-week-old bullish channel to favor USD/JPY sellers. On the same line could be the strongest bearish MACD signals since early December 2022. With this, the Yen pair appears all set to slump toward the 50-DMA support of 132.50. However, the early February swing highs near 132.90 seem to prod the USD/JPY sellers of late. In a case where the USD/JPY price remains bearish past the 50-DMA, the 130.00 round figure and the previous monthly low surrounding 128.00 will be in the spotlight. On the flip side, a convergence of the 100-DMA and the aforementioned channel’s lower line, close to 135.85, holds the key to USD/JPY pair’s recovery. Even so, the 200-DMA can test the upside momentum near 137.50 before directing prices towards the aforementioned channel’s top line, close to 139.50 at the latest. USD/JPY: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected
Decline of Canadian retails sales plays in favour of holding the rates by Bank of Canada

The Better-Than-Expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Join The Bank Of Canada’s (BoC) Dovish Play To Weigh On The Loonie Prices

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 13.03.2023 08:31
USD/CAD takes offers to extend pullback from five-month high. US regulators unveil plans to tame SVB, Signature Bank inflicted risk. Fed rate hike expectations ease amid looming fears on US banks. Oil price cheers softer US Dollar with eyes on EIA, OPEC monthly reports. USD/CAD stands on slippery grounds, declining nearly 0.80% intraday to 1.3720 heading into Monday’s European session. In doing so, the Loonie pair sellers cheer the broad US Dollar weakness, as well as the recent recovery in prices of Crude Oil, Canada’s key export item. US Dollar Index (DXY) drops to the lowest levels in a month, down 0.80% near 103.80, as risk-on mood joins easing hawkish Fed bets to drown the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies. On the other hand, WTI crude oil rises for the second consecutive day, up 0.50% intraday near $77.00 at the latest. After witnessing the stock and bond market rout on Friday, the market sentiment improved as the US Treasury Department, Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) took joint actions to tame the risks emanating from the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank during the weekend.  “All depositors of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank will be fully protected,” said the authorities in a statement released afterward. While reacting to the US regulators’ actions, US President Joe Biden said, “American people and American businesses can have confidence that their bank deposits will be there when they need them.” It should be noted, however, that the latest fallout of the SVB and Signature Bank flagged fragile conditions of the US bank, which in turn pushed back hopes of more rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). With this in mind, Goldman Sachs expects to rate hike in March while the Fed Fund Futures also cut previously upbeat odds favoring a 0.50% rate lift in the Fed rate in March. Alternatively, China’s dislike for the US interference in Taiwan matters and the better-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) join the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) dovish play to weigh on the Loonie prices. On Friday, US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) grew more than 205K expected to 311K in February, versus 504K (revised), while the Unemployment Rate rose to 3.6% for the said month compared to 3.4% expected and prior. Further, the Average Hourly Earnings rose on YoY but eased on monthly basis for February whereas the Labor Force Participation increased during the stated month. At home, Canada’s Net Change in Employment rose to 21.8K versus 10K market forecasts and 150K prior while the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5.0% compared to 5.1% expected. Looking ahead, Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February to direct immediate market moves. Following that, the Retail Sales and preliminary readings of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March, up for publishing on Wednesday and Friday, will be crucial for clear directions of the USD/CAD traders. Technical analysis Friday’s Doji at multi-day high joins overbought RSI to favor USD/CAD pullback towards the late 2022 peak surrounding the 1.3700 round figure.
USD/CAD - Canadian economy added 41,400 jobs beating expectations

The USD/CAD Bulls Might Prefer To Take A Breather

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 10.03.2023 11:44
USD/CAD continues scaling higher on Friday and touches its highest level since October. Bearish crude Oil prices undermine the Loonie and remain supportive of the momentum. The risk-off mood benefits the USD’s relative safe-haven status and acts as a tailwind. Traders now look to the monthly jobs data from Canada and the US for a fresh impetus. The USD/CAD pair adds to its strong weekly gains and climbs to its highest level since October 17, 2022, around the 1.3860 area during the first half of the European session on Friday. The selling pressure around Crude Oil prices remains unabated for the fourth straight day, which undermines the commodity-linked Loonie and acts as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. In fact, the black liquid remains on track to register its worst fall since early February amid worries that slowing global economic growth will dent fuel demand. Apart from this, the fact that the Bank of Canada (BoC) became the first major central bank to pause its rate-hiking cycle on Wednesday is seen as another factor weighing on the Canadian Dollar. The aforementioned factors, to a larger extent, helps offset a modest US Dollar weakness and continue to push the USD/CAD pair higher. Data released on Thursday showed a larger-than-expected rise in the US Weekly Jobless Claims, which was seen as the first sign of a softening labor market. This, in turn, forced investors to re-evaluate the possibility of a  50 bps lift-off at the upcoming FOMC meeting on March 21-22, leading to a further decline in the US Treasury bond yields and exerting some follow-through pressure on the Greenback. That said, the prevalent risk-off environment - amid looming recession risks - helps limit losses for the safe-haven buck, at least for the time being. The market sentiment remains fragile in the wake of worries about economic headwinds stemming from rising borrowing costs, which is reinforced by a further deepening of the yield curve. Adding to this, the incoming softer Chinese macro data dashed hopes for a strong recovery in the world's second-largest economy. This, in turn, tempers investors' appetite for perceived riskier assets. The USD/CAD bulls, meanwhile, might prefer to take a breather amid a slightly overbought Relative Strength Index (RSO) on the daily chart and ahead of the closely-watched US monthly employment details. The popularly known NFP report is more likely to overshadow the Canadian jobs data and play a key role in influencing the pair's near-term trajectory. The focus will then shift to the latest US consumer inflation figures, due for release next Tuesday.
Bank of England is expected to hike the rate by 25bp. Kelvin Wong talks Euro against British pound

Analysis Of Price Movement Of The EUR/GBP Cross Pair

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 10.03.2023 09:02
EUR/GBP takes offers to refresh intraday low, prints three-day downtrend. UK GDP improved in January, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production deteriorated. Hopes of Britain’s economic rebound due to the latest reshuffle in governing policies, Brexit allow GBP to remain firmer. BoE versus ECB drama could check pair sellers as the key data begins in London. EUR/GBP slides 10 pips to refresh intraday low near 0.8860 as the UK’s Office for National Statistics releases the monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on early Friday. It should be noted that the optimism surrounding the British economic transition and mixed sentiment, as well as likely challenges for the Euro, seem to exert additional downside pressure on the cross-currency pair. UK GDP grew 0.3% MoM in January versus 0.1% expected and -0.5% previous, which in turn pushes back the recession woes and propels the British Pound (GBP) despite mixed readings on the other fronts. That said, UK Industrial Production figures reversed the 0.3% previous expansion with -0.3% MoM marks whereas the Manufacturing Production growth dropped to -0.4% compared to -0.1% market forecasts and 0.0% prior. Also read: UK Manufacturing Production declines 0.4% MoM in January vs. -0.1% expected Elsewhere, hopes of economic recovery and more stock market listings seem to help the Cable pair amid a light calendar during the week. “The country's economy is on track to shrink less than expected this year and avoid the two-quarters of negative growth which mark a technical recession,” the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) forecast on Wednesday per Reuters. Further, Britain’s finance ministry said on Wednesday it will launch a review into how investor research on companies could be improved to attract more listings, a step that follows a decision by UK chip designer Arm Ltd to only list in New York, reported Reuters. On the same line, Britain's revamped financial market rules will largely be aligned with U.S. and European Union regulations to minimize disruption to global companies, its financial services minister Andrew Griffith said on Thursday per Reuters. It should be noted that Bank of England (BoE) policy maker Swati Dhingra warned against interest rate hikes on Wednesday while saying that overtightening poses a more material risk at this point. On the other hand, fears of more economic pain for the bloc amid geopolitical tensions with Russia and sticky inflation, as well as higher rates, seem to drag the Euro. It should be noted that the risk-off mood underpins the US Dollar’s haven demand and reduces the demand of its major rival, namely the EUR. Having witnessed the initial market reaction to the UK’s data dump, EUR/GBP pair traders may concentrate on European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde for clear directions. Also important to watch will be a slew of top-tier data from the US and Canada that can entertain the momentum traders across the board. Technical analysis Failure to overcome the 0.8930 horizontal hurdle joins the EUR/GBP pair’s clear downside break of a one-week-old ascending trend line, around 0.8895 by the press time, to direct bears towards the 100-DMA support of 0.8765.
Technical analysis of Silver by Alexandros Yfantis - May 5th

Silver Price Is Likely To Decline Further

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 10.03.2023 09:01
Silver price fades bounce off four-month low after confirming bearish chart pattern earlier in Asia. Bearish MACD signals, sustained trading below the key EMAs keep XAG/USD sellers directed toward $18.80 theoretical target. Convergence of flag’s top line, 100-EMA appears short-term key upside hurdle to watch during corrective bounce. Silver (XAG/USD) remains on the back foot around the $20.00 round figure amid early Friday in Europe, fading the bounce off the intraday low. In doing so, the bright metal retreats from the lower line of a three-day-old bear flag, after confirming the downside suggesting chart formation earlier in the day. Adding strength to the bearish bias are the downbeat MACD signals and the XAG/USD’s sustained trading below the 100 and 200 Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). That said, the recent lows marked around $19.90 and the latest October 2022 peak surrounding $19.75 may entertain the intraday sellers of the Silver during the theoretical target surrounding $18.80. Meanwhile, recovery moves could aim for the convergence of the 100-EMA and the stated flag’s upper line, close to $20.35. Also acting as an upside filter is the 200-EMA level surrounding $20.65. It should be noted that the monthly high near $21.30 holds the key to the Silver buyer’s conviction. To sum up, the Silver price remains bearish and can refresh the four-month low marked earlier in the day. Silver price: Hourly chart Trend: Further downside expected
USD/JPY Pair Has Rebounded Firmly From The Upward-Sloping Trendline

USD/JPY Pair Has Rebounded Firmly From The Upward-Sloping Trendline

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 10.03.2023 08:57
USD/JPY has turned sideways around 136.65 as investors await US NFP for further guidance. BoJ Kuroda continued expansionary monetary policy as the domestic demand and wages have failed to spur inflation. The RSI (14) is gathering strength for shifting into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00. The USD/JPY pair is displaying a volatility contraction around 136.65 after sheer volatility inspired by the continuation of an ultra-easy monetary policy by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda continued expansionary monetary policy as the domestic demand and wages have failed to spurt inflation in the Japanese economy. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is gathering strength in extending its recovery above the immediate resistance of 105.35. The USD Index has been extremely quiet as investors are awaiting the release of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. S&P500 futures are continuously accelerating losses as fears of aggressive interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, the demand for US government bonds is soaring, which has trimmed the 10-year US Treasury yields further below 3.82%. On an hourly scale, USD/JPY has rebounded firmly from the upward-sloping trendline plotted from March 06 low at 135.37. The asset has extended its recovery above the critical resistance of 136.45, which has turned into support for the US Dollar bulls. The recovery move in the USD/JPY looks full of strength as the asset has scaled above the 20-and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 136.40 and 136.55 respectively. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is making efforts in shifting into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00. An occurrence of the same will trigger the upside momentum. Going forward, a break above the intraday high at 137.00 will drive the asset toward March 08 high at 137.90 followed by November 28 high at 139.43. Alternatively, a downside move below the intraday low at 135.82 will drag the asset toward March 01 low at 135.26. A slippage below the latter will expose the asset to February 24 low at 134.06. USD/JPY hourly chart  
New Zealand dollar against US dollar decreased by 1.07% yesterday

The NZD/USD Pair Is Likely To Decline Further

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 10.03.2023 08:55
NZD/USD fades bounce off the lowest levels since late November 2022, grinds lower of late. 50-EMA pierces 200-EMA from above to portray death cross suggesting further downside of the Kiwi pair. Oversold RSI conditions, lows marked during mid-November challenge bears. Buyers need a successful break of 0.6265 to retake control. NZD/USD extends the previous day’s pullback from mid-0.6100s as bears flirt with the 0.6100 threshold during early Friday.  In doing so, the Kiwi pair justifies Thursday’s failure to cross the late February swing low. That said, the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) pierces the 200-EMA from above and portrays the death cross, which in turn suggests further downside of the NZD/USD. However, the RSI (14) line is oversold and hence, lows marked during mid-November 2022, around 0.6060, may act as strong support for the NZD/USD bears to watch. In a case where the Kiwi pair refrains from bouncing off 0.6060 support, it becomes vulnerable to drop towards the early November 2022 peak surrounding the 0.6000 psychological magnet. Alternatively, a downward-sloping resistance line from February 14, close to the 0.6200 round figure, seems to challenge the NZD/USD pair’s immediate recovery. It’s worth noting, though, that a convergence of the 50-EMA and 200-EMA, around 0.6265, appears a tough nut to crack for the NZD/USD bulls, a break of which could trigger a run-up targeting the mid-February swing high near 0.6390. Overall, NZD/USD is likely to decline further but the room towards the south appears limited. NZD/USD: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected
The Commodities Feed: Specs continue to cut oil longs

Further Downside Movement Of WTI Crude Oil Is Expected - 10.03.2023

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 10.03.2023 08:53
WTI crude oil drops to the lowest levels since February 27, down for the fourth consecutive day. Fears of higher inflation, rate lifts join pre-data anxiety to weigh on Oil price. Sluggish US Dollar, Treasury bond yields fail to recall energy buyers. US NFP, Russia’s reaction to US ties with UK, Australia for nuclear submarine eyed. WTI crude oil prices remain on the back foot around $75.20 as bears cheer the four-day losing streak amid early Friday in Europe. In doing so, the energy benchmark bears the burden of the risk-off mood ahead of the key data/events. That said, fears of higher inflation and the need for more rate lifts from the major central banks seem to roil the risk profile. New York Fed mentioned, in its latest report, that recent upward revisions to inflation data coupled with higher-than-expected levels of inflation had changed the picture of what had appeared to be cooling in price pressures. It should be observed that the previous day’s mixed signals of the US employment data allowed the US Dollar to remain weak, which in turn seemed to have put a floor under the Oil price. On the contrary, Bloomberg’s analysis suggesting China’s consumer spending is showing signs of a strong rebound joins the hopes of more stimulus from the dragon nation and the US readiness for more spending to prod the risk-off mood and the Oil bears. Additionally putting a floor under the WTI are the geopolitical fears surrounding US President Joe Biden’s budget proposal for 2024 and the US partnership with the UK and Australia for nuclear submarines. While portraying the mood, S&P 500 Futures remain depressed at the monthly low while US Treasury bond yields stretch the previous day’s pullback from a multi-day high. Moving on, Oil traders should pay attention to the risk catalysts, as well as the US employment report for February for clear directions. Technical analysis WTI slips below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of its November-December 2022 downside, near $75.60, to stretch the early-week pullback from the six-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding $80.80-$81.00. The black gold’s pullback joins bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI (14), not oversold, to keep sellers hopeful of marking another try in breaking the two-month-old ascending support line near $74.20. Following that, $72.60 is likely a small buffer during the anticipated fall towards January’s low near $70.30. Alternatively, the 50-DMA level surrounding $77.80 guards the WTI’s immediate recovery ahead of the aforementioned multi-day-old horizontal resistance area near $81.00. It’s worth noting, however, that the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and a descending resistance line from early December 2022, close to $81.60 and $82.00 in that order, also challenge the WTI crude oil buyers. WTI crude oil: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected
The Indian Rupee Pair Takes Clues From The Receding Fears Of Hawkish Fed Rate Moves

The USD/INR Pair Is Likely To Recover

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 10.03.2023 08:50
USD/INR bears attack a convergence of 50-SMA, one-week-old resistance line. Upbeat oscillators suggest further recovery but 200-SMA acts as additional upside filter. Ascending trend line from Monday restricts immediate downside. USD/INR struggles to extend the previous day’s recovery moves as it retreats to 82.00 round figure heading into Friday’s European session. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair steps back from a convergence of the 50-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a downward-sloping resistance line from February 27. Even so, the bullish MACD signals and upward-sloping RSI (14), not overbought, keep USD/INR buyers hopeful of crossing the immediate 82.15 resistance confluence. Following that, the 200-SMA level surrounding 82.35 acts as the last defense of the pair bears, a break of which could quickly propel the USD/INR prices toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of its late January-February upside, around 82.55. It should be noted that the Indian Rupee’s weakness past 82.55 could help the USD/INR bulls to refresh the monthly high, currently around 83.10. In that case, the October 2022 peak of near 83.43 will be in focus. On the flip side, USD/INR pullback may initially aim for the weekly support line, close to 81.80 at the latest. However, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the monthly low, respectively near 81.70 and 81.60, could test the USD/INR bears before giving them control. Overall, USD/INR is likely to recover but the road to the upside is long and bumpy. USD/INR: Four-hour chart Trend: Further upside expected
RBNZ preview: Fiscal spending argues for a hawkish 25bp hike

Analysis Of The Prospects Of A Kiwi Pair (NZD/USD)

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 09.03.2023 08:56
NZD/USD seesaws around intraday high while keeping the bounce off 3.5-month low. 50-HMA, two-week-old horizontal resistance area restrict immediate run-up inside short-term bullish channel. Oscillators suggest slower grind towards the north but buyers need validation from 0.6200. NZD/USD pares weekly losses around 0.6120 amid the early Thursday morning in Europe. In doing so, the Kiwi pair prints mild gains while snapping the previous three-day downtrend, as well as keeping the early-day rebound from the lowest levels since November 17, 2022. While portraying the quote’s latest rebound, an ascending trend channel from Tuesday gains major attention. That said, the NZD/USD price currently pokes a convergence of the fortnight-long horizontal resistance area, as well as the 50-Hour Moving Average (HMA), around 0.6130 by the press time. It’s worth noting, however, that the bullish MACD signals and the recently firmer RSI (14) hint at the Kiwi pair’s further recovery, which in turn highlights the stated bullish channel’s top line near 0.6140. In a case where the NZD/USD price remains firmer past 0.6140, a downward-sloping resistance line from March 01, close to 0.6195 by the press time, lures the buyers, a break of which could quickly propel the quote towards the monthly high of 0.6277. On the flip side, a clear break of the stated bullish channel’s bottom line, around the 0.6100 round figure, could trigger a south-run targeting the 0.6000 psychological magnet. Though, the early September 2022 low near 0.5995 can act as an extra filter towards the south. Overall, NZD/USD remains on the bear’s radar despite the latest corrective bounce. NZD/USD: Hourly chart Trend: Limited recovery expected
The Commodities Feed: Further oil supply disruptions

Crude Oil Cheers The Broad-Based US Dollar Retreat And Upbeat Oil Inventory Data

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 09.03.2023 08:55
WTI clings to mild gains around intraday high, snaps two-day downtrend. US Dollar retreat, upbeat Oil inventories seem to underpin WTI’s corrective bounce. Downbeat China inflation, upbeat signals of US jobs join proposed increase in US taxes on rich to probe Oil buyers. Friday’s US employment data becomes the key to clear directions. WTI crude oil grinds near the intraday high of $76.86 during the first profit-making day in three amid early Thursday. In doing so, the black gold cheers the broad-based US Dollar retreat and upbeat Oil inventory data. However, downbeat inflation from China and fears of hawkish monetary policies prod the commodity buyers. US Dollar Index (DXY) snaps a two-day uptrend while easing from the highest levels since December 01, 2022, down 0.13% intraday near 105.55 by the press time, as markets brace for Friday’s key employment data amid mixed US statistics. On Wednesday, the US ADP Employment Change rose to 242K in February versus 200K market forecasts and 119K prior (revised). Further, the US Goods and Services Trade Balance dropped to $-68.3B from the $-67.2B previous reading (revised) and $-68.9B analysts’ estimations. It should be noted that the US JOLTS Job Openings for January improved to 10.824M versus 10.6M expected but eased from 11.234M revised prior. It should be noted that the WTI crude oil’s official inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) traced the industry stockpile report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) while posting a draw in the stocks during the week ended on March 03. Elsewhere, disappointment from China’s inflation data also dims the prospects of recovery in the world’s second-largest economy and weighs on the risk profile. On the same line could be the fears of higher taxes in the world’s biggest economy, the US, as well as the political chaos relating to it as US President Joe Biden proposes raising corporation tax from 21% to 28% in his latest budget guide ahead of Friday’s release. Amid these plays, the S&P 500 Futures struggles for clear directions after bouncing off a one-week low the previous day. Further, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rise to 3.99%, up one basis point (bp), whereas the two-year counterpart pares intraday losses near 5.05% at the latest. US yield curve inversion widened to the highest levels since 1981 and propelled the recession fears on Wednesday. However, an absence surprise in Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony 2.0 and mixed US data seemed to have triggered the US Dollar’s latest pullback. Moving on, a light calendar may allow the WTI crude oil to pare some of its weekly gains ahead of Friday’s all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls. Technical analysis WTI crude oil rebound remains elusive unless crossing $81.00 while an upward-sloping support line from early February challenge the commodity bears near $75.15.
Technical analysis of Silver by Alexandros Yfantis - May 5th

The Silver Bears Appear Running Out Of Steam

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 09.03.2023 08:51
Silver price prints mild gains as it reverses from four-month low. Short-term descending support line, oversold RSI adds strength to recovery. Doji candlestick, 100-DMA challenge XAG/USD buyers amid sluggish moves. Silver price (XAG/USD) picks up bids to rebound from the Year-To-Date (YTD) lows while printing mild gains around $20.00, up 0.18% intraday heading into Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the bright metal bounces off a three-week-old descending support line, around $19.80 by the press time, amid an oversold RSI (14). The XAG/USD rebound, however, appears elusive unless the quote stays below the previous day’s top surrounding $20.22. That said, a clear upside break of $20.22 will defy the bearish candlestick formation and can propel the Silver price toward a late February swing low surrounding $20.45. It’s worth noting, though, that the XAG/USD run-up beyond $20.45 needs validation from the $21.00 round figure and the 100-SMA hurdle of $21.15 to convince the buyers. Meanwhile, pullback moves may retest the aforementioned support line, near $19.80. Following that, the $19.00 and November 2022 low surrounding $18.85 may entertain the Silver traders. In a case where the XAG/USD bears keep the reins past $18.85, the previous yearly low surrounding $17.75, marked in September 2022, will be in focus. Overall, the Silver bears appear running out of steam but the bulls have a long way to go before retaking control. Silver price: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected
Analysis Of Situation Of The USD/INR Pair

Analysis Of Situation Of The USD/INR Pair

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 09.03.2023 08:48
USD/INR extends the previous day’s pullback from one-week high, pressured around intraday low of late. US Dollar bulls take a breather at three-month high as traders await the key employment data amid mixed feelings. Cautious optimism in Asia adds strength to the Indian Rupee’s rebound. Second-tier data, risk catalysts eyed for intraday directions. USD/INR clings to mild losses around 81.85-90 during early Thursday in Europe, extending the previous day’s pullback from a one-week high. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair cheers the US Dollar’s positioning for Friday’s jobs report amid sluggish early hours of trading. Adding strength to the USD retreat could be the inaction in the bond market as major yields remain sidelined after posting. With this, US Dollar Index (DXY) prints the first daily loss in three while keeping the early Asian session pullback from the highest levels since December 01, 2022. It should be noted, however, that the cautious optimism in Asia, mainly due to the sluggish S&P 500 Futures joining downbeat China inflation data, seems to cap the INR strength. On the same line could be the downbeat Japan growth numbers and downbeat sentiment in India after the Holi holidays. Elsewhere, an absence surprise in Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony 2.0 and mixed US data seemed to have triggered the US Dollar’s latest pullback. Furthermore, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields seesaw near 3.99% whereas the two-year counterpart pares intraday losses around 5.05% at the latest. It’s worth noting that US yield curve inversion widened to the highest levels since 1981 and propelled the recession fears on Wednesday. It’s worth observing that the mixed US data seemed to have favored the USD/INR bears even if the early signals for Friday’s employment report are upbeat. That said, the US ADP Employment Change rose to 242K in February versus 200K market forecasts and 119K prior (revised). Further, the US Goods and Services Trade Balance dropped to $-68.3B from the $-67.2B previous reading (revised) and $-68.9B analysts’ estimations. It should be noted that the US JOLTS Job Openings for January improved to 10.824M versus 10.6M expected but eased from 11.234M revised prior. To sum up, USD/INR is more likely a technical play than a fundamental as the pair’s inability to cross the 100-DMA keeps bears hopeful despite the likely improvement in the US Dollar. Technical analysis USD/INR’s failure to cross the 100-DMA hurdle during the previous day’s run-up, around 82.13 by the press time, keeps the bears hopeful of witnessing a slump towards an ascending support line from early November, close to 81.35 at the latest
Australian dollar against US dollar - "It seems that the currency will soon hit a price above 0.68"

The Australian Dollar Might Continue To Face Selling Pressure

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 09.03.2023 08:46
AUD/USD is attempting to scale above 0.6600, however, the risk-off mood is still intact. A Doji candlestick formation indicates indecisiveness among market participants. An oscillation in the 20.00-40.00 range by the RSI (14) indicates that the bearish momentum is currently active. The AUD/USD pair is displaying a subdued performance below 0.6600 in the Asian session. The upside in the Aussie asset seems restricted as Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe has considered a pause in the rate-hiking spree and the Chinese economy is struggling to accelerate domestic demand despite significant reopening measures. S&P500 futures have witnessed immense pressure as a sense of deflation conveyed by Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicates that the economy will take plenty of time to strengthen its economic outlook. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is auctioning in a limited range above 105.20 as investors are awaiting the release of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for fresh impetus. AUD/USD has formed a Doji candlestick pattern, which indicates indecisiveness among the sentiment of market participants for further direction. Usually, a Doji formation indicates a reversal after an established trend. However, it requires more filters to confirm a reversal. Also, the negligence of Doji is considered as the continuation of the ongoing trend. The Australian Dollar might continue to face selling pressure from the 10-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around 0.6700. An oscillation in the 20.00-40.00 range by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) indicates that the bearish momentum is currently active. The momentum indicator is not shown any sign of divergence and a situation of oversold. Going forward, a breakdown of Wednesday’s low at 0.6568 will drag the asst toward the horizontal support plotted from October 4 high at 0.6547 followed by the round-level support at 0.6500. In an alternate scenario, a break above Doji’s high at 0.6629 will push the Aussie asset toward December 22 low at 0.6650. A break above the same might expose the major to February 27 low near 0.6700. AUD/USD daily chart  
Indonesia’s trade surplus narrows in March

The Indonesia Rupiah (IDR) Pair Retreats From A Two-Month High

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 09.03.2023 08:43
USD/IDR holds lower ground near intraday bottom after reversing from multi-day top. Indonesia Retail Sales growth plummets to multi-month low in January. US Dollar’s pullback amid sluggish markets, positioning for Friday’s NFP seem to probe pair buyers. USD/IDR remains sidelined near 15,440, recently making rounds to the intraday low, even as Indonesia Retail Sales flashed disappointing data early Thursday. In doing so, the Indonesia Rupiah (IDR) pair retreats from a two-month high while snapping a three-day uptrend amid a broad US Dollar retreat. That said, Indonesia’s Retail Sales marked a 0.6% YoY contraction in January versus 0.7% previous rise. With this, the key statistics dropped to the lowest levels since September 2021 while snapping the 15-month winning streak. US Dollar Index (DXY) prints the first daily gains in three while keeping the early Asian session pullback from the highest levels since December 01, 2022. That said, the DXY’s latest moves seem to pay a little attention to the sour sentiment as the greenback buyers brace for Friday’s all-important US jobs report for February amid upbeat early signals. Talking about the sentiment, the S&P 500 Futures struggles for clear directions after bouncing off a one-week low the previous day. On the same line, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rise to 3.99%, up one basis point (bp), whereas the two-year counterpart pares intraday losses near 5.05% at the latest. It’s worth noting that US yield curve inversion widened to the highest levels since 1981 and propelled the recession fears on Wednesday. However, an absence surprise in Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony 2.0 and mixed US data seemed to have triggered the US Dollar’s latest pullback. On Wednesday, the US ADP Employment Change rose to 242K in February versus 200K market forecasts and 119K prior (revised). Further, the US Goods and Services Trade Balance dropped to $-68.3B from the $-67.2B previous reading (revised) and $-68.9B analysts’ estimations. It should be noted that the US JOLTS Job Openings for January improved to 10.824M versus 10.6M expected but eased from 11.234M revised prior. It should be noted that the risk profile weakened early Thursday amid headlines suggesting US President Joe Biden’s proposal for higher taxes, which in turn appears an extra economic burden amid the looming recession woes. Looking forward, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended on March 03 will join the Challenger Job Cuts for February to entertain intraday traders of the USD/IDR. Technical analysis Despite the latest retreat, a daily closing below the 100-DMA level surrounding 15,420 becomes necessary for the USD/IDR bears to retake control
The USD/MXN Pair’s Further Moves Rely On The Mexican Inflation Data

The USD/MXN Pair’s Further Moves Rely On The Mexican Inflation Data

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 09.03.2023 08:42
USD/MXN retreats towards multi-year low as US Dollar struggles to cheer risk-off mood. US Dollar grinds despite President Biden’s controversial tax proposal, higher yields and hawkish Fed bets. Banxico shows more clarity over rate hike than Fed with no talks of policy pivot fueling Mexican Peso. USD/MXN eases to 17.96 during early Thursday, after a failed attempt to recover from the lowest levels since September 2017, tested the previous day. The quote’s latest weakness pays little to the risk-off mood while bracing for the key Mexican inflation data. Market sentiment sours as US President Joe Biden’s proposal for higher taxes appears an extra economic burden amid the looming recession woes. That said, Biden proposes raising corporation tax from 21% to 28% in his latest budget guide ahead of Friday’s release. The US Leader also aims for a 25% billionaire tax and large levies on rich investors. Additionally, disappointment from China’s inflation data also dims the prospects of recovery in the world’s second-largest economy and weighs on the risk profile and should have favored the US Dollar’s haven demand. On the same line Fed Chairman Powell repeated his hawkish calls of readiness to lift the rate while highlighting stronger-than-expected inflation pressure. The same bolstered bets for the Fed’s 50 bps rate hike but the Testimony 2.0 didn’t have anything new from what’s already heard on Tuesday and hence the US Dollar traders were mostly afraid of taking any major steps. Alternatively, Banxico appears more clear in its hawkish monetary policy bias and has already signaled a further rate hike in its latest monetary policy meeting where the Mexican central bank lifted the benchmark rate by 50 bps. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures reverses the previous day’s bounce off a one-week low while refreshing the intraday bottom around 3,985. On the same line, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rise to 3.99%, up one basis point (bp), whereas the two-year counterpart pares intraday losses near 5.05% at the latest. It’s worth noting that US yield curve inversion widened to the highest levels since 1981 and propelled the recession fears the previous day. Although the bears are in the driver’s seat, the USD/MXN pair’s further moves rely on the Mexican Inflation data for February. That said, downbeat forecasts for the Headline Inflation, Core Inflation and 12-month Inflation, join the recent challenge to sentiment to prod the bears. Technical analysis A daily closing below April 2018 lows surrounding 17.93 becomes necessary for the bears to keep the reins. That said, the oversold RSI (14) challenges USD/MXN pair’s further downside.  
Further Downside Of The AUD/JPY Cross Pair Is Expected

Further Downside Of The AUD/JPY Cross Pair Is Expected

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 09.03.2023 08:37
AUD/JPY renews seven-week low as China prints downbeat CPI, PPI for February. Convergence of two-month-old ascending trend line, 50% Fibonacci retracement challenge bears amid oversold RSI (14) line. Recover remains elusive unless crossing 91.75 hurdle; MACD teases buyers. AUD/JPY sellers attack the short-term key support around 90.20 after China released downbeat inflation data early Thursday. Also weighing on the cross-currency pair are the headlines suggesting challenges to sentiment emanating from US President Joe Biden’s budget proposal for 2024, up for publishing on Friday. As per the latest inflation data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped to 1.0% YoY versus 1.9% expected and 2.1% prior while the Producer Price Index (PPI) also declines to -1.4% from -0.8% previous readings and -1.3% market consensus. Also read: China CPI in at 1.0% vs 1.9% expected, AUD unchanged With the downbeat inflation numbers from Australia’s key customer China, as well as the risk-off mood, AUD/JPY bears poke a convergence of the two-month-old ascending trend line and 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s January-February upside, near 90.20. It’s worth noting that the oversold RSI (14) joins the looming bull cross on the MACD to challenge the quote’s further downside. Also acting as an important nearby support is the 90.00 round figure. Should the quote breaks the 90.00 mark, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level surrounding 89.55, also known as the golden ratio, can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, AUD/JPY rebound needs validation from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level surrounding 90.90. However, a convergence of the 200-SMA and a 12-day-old descending resistance line, around 91.75 at the latest, appears a tough nut to crack for the AUD/JPY buyers. AUD/JPY: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected
The USD/CNH Pair Remains On The Bear’s Trend

China’s Reopening Has Failed To Propel Domestic Demand

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 09.03.2023 08:34
USD/CNH has scaled above 6.9750 as the Chinese economy has registered a deflation by 0.5%. Producers have lowered prices of goods and services at factory gates due to sluggish demand. Upbeat US ADP Employment data has confirmed that January’s strong data was not a one-time blip. The USD/CNH pair has jumped above 6.9750 as China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has reported a sense of deflation in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Feb) data. Monthly CPI figures have contracted by 0.5% while the street was anticipating a decline to 0.2% from the former release of 0.8%. The prices of goods and services in China have accelerated by 1% annually, lower than the consensus of 1.9% and the prior release of 2.1%. Apart from that, the annual Producer Price Index (PPI) has contracted by 1.4% vs. the consensus of 1.3% contraction and 0.8% contraction in the prior release. This indicates that producers lowered the prices of goods and services at factory gates. The reason behind lowering prices could be sluggish demand. It seems that China’s reopening has failed to propel domestic demand. A sense of deflation might force the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) and the Chinese administration to inject helicopter money into the economy to support the overall demand. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is gathering strength as United States President Joe Biden has proposed an increase in corporation taxes from 21% to 28%. US Biden wants a 25% billionaire tax and large levies on rich investors. He has also proposed a tax on income over $400,000 at 39.6% in the budget. More taxes on US individuals will be considered as contracting Fiscal policy, which might support the Federal Reserve (Fed) in bringing down the stubborn inflation. Fed chair Jerome Powell has confirmed a higher terminal rate than previously anticipated as the battle against sticky inflation is getting complicated. Also, upbeat US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment data has confirmed that January’s strong data on the labor market and consumer spending was not a one-time blip.  
New Zealand dollar against US dollar decreased by 1.07% yesterday

The Broader Risk Sentiment Should Influence The NZD/USD Pair

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 08.03.2023 09:46
NZD/USD languishes near its lowest level since November amid sustained USD buying. The USD remains pinned near a multi-month top amid bets for aggressive Fed rate hikes. The prevalent risk-off environment further acts as a headwind for the risk-sensitive Kiwi. The NZD/USD pair seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses, around the 0.6100 mark through the early European session and consolidates its recent decline to the lowest level since November 17 touched earlier this Wednesday. The US Dollar builds on the previous day's blowout rally led by more hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and climbs to a fresh multi-month top, which, in turn, is seen acting as a headwind for the NZD/USD pair. Powell surprised investors and raised the possibility of larger rate hikes to tackle sticky inflation. In the prepared remarks for the semi-annual congressional testimony, Powell warned that interest rates might need to go up faster and higher than previously anticipated. The markets were quick to react and started pricing in a greater chance of a 50 bps lift-off at the March FOMC policy meeting, which remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond is holding steady near the 4.0% threshold and the rate-sensitive two-year Treasury note stands tall near its highest level since 2007, which, along with a fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade, continues to lend support to the safe-haven USD. The market sentiment remains fragile amid worries about economic headwinds stemming from rapidly rising borrowing costs. Adding to this, fading optimism over a strong Chinese economic recovery, along with US-China tensions, temper investors' appetite for perceived riskier assets. This is evident from a sea of red across the equity markets, which further benefits the Greenback's status as the global reserve currency and contributes to capping any meaningful upside for the risk-sensitive Kiwi. That said, the extremely oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) on hourly charts helps limit losses for the NZD/USD pair, at least for the time being. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted firmly in favour of bearish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside. Hence, any attempted recovery move is more likely to get sold into and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly. Investors look forward to the US macro data for a fresh impetus. Wednesday's US economic docket features the release of the ADP report on private-sector employment and JOLTS Jobs Opening data later during the early North American session. This, along with the US bond yields and Powell's second day of testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, will drive the USD demand. Apart from this, the broader risk sentiment should influence the NZD/USD pair and allow traders to grab short-term opportunities.
The Bank Of Canada Paused Rates Hiking, The ADP Employment Report Had A 242K Increase In Jobs

Banks' Expectations Regarding The Decision Of Bank Canada

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 08.03.2023 09:17
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, March 8 at 15:00 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the expectations as forecast by the economists and researchers of seven major banks, regarding the upcoming announcement. BoC is expected to keep rates steady at 4.5% in March. There is no press conference this time. ING “We have much more confidence that the BoC will leave policy rates unchanged. At the 25 January BoC policy meeting, the governing council stated that it expects to ‘hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases’ at upcoming meetings. The data since then has shown inflation undershooting expectations and GDP growth stalling, yet the economy continues to create jobs. We will get an update on Canadian jobs at the end of the week and we wouldn’t be surprised to see a correction lower given the volatility in the series.” TDS “The downside surprise on Q4 GDP should allow the BoC to look past the blockbuster January jobs number and keep the overnight rate unchanged at 4.50%. The forward guidance is not expected to change too much from January, though the BoC might want to put more emphasis on the conditional nature of its pause. A low-energy BoC meeting would likely direct CAD's focus to the evolving global narratives. We see USD/CAD holding the 1.33/1.37 range unless US inflation goes awry this month.” NBF “We expect the BoC to keep its policy rate unchanged. The decision won’t come with updated projections, but the rate statement should nonetheless provide a high-level opinion on how Governing Council views recent economic developments. Our expectation is that it notes the economy is progressing ‘broadly as expected’, a characterization which should give investors more confidence that April will also result in no change to policy. A speech delivered by Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers on Thursday should reinforce this. After a year of frequent surprises on BoC announcement days, we’re relatively confident this will be a straightforward affair.”  CIBC “The BoC is a near lock to leave rates unchanged this month but will retain language indicating that the pause is conditional on seeing the economy track in line with the Bank’s expectations.” MUFG “We expect the BoC to remain in wait-and-see mode this week as they continue to assess the lagged impact of monetary tightening delivered to date.” Citibank “The BoC’s policy decision is very likely to see the cash target unchanged at 4.50% given that economic developments in Canada have evolved ‘broadly in line with the MPR outlook’. The most important adjustments in the policy statement will be to the guidance, where Citi analysts’ base case is for very little change.” Wells Fargo “For the first time since January last year, we expect the BoC to hold its policy rate steady at 4.50%. In January, the BoC raised rates 25 bps but also said if economic developments evolve broadly as expected, it would hold interest rates steady while it assessed the impact of its cumulative interest rate increases. That suggests a relatively high bar to resume rate hikes, and one we do not think has yet been met.”  
USD/JPY Pair Has Rebounded Firmly From The Upward-Sloping Trendline

Expectations That The Bank Of Japan Will Maintain The Ultra-Loose Policy Settings, Is Pushing The USD/JPY Pair Higher

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 08.03.2023 08:59
USD/JPY touches a fresh YTD peak on Wednesday amid sustained USD buying interest. Rising bets for a 50 bps Fed rate hike in March, elevated US bond yields boost the USD. The risk-off mood lends some support to the safe-haven JPY and caps gains for the pair. The USD/JPY pair gains traction for the second straight day on Wednesday and climbs to its highest level since mid-December. The pair maintains its bid tone through the early European session and is currently placed around the 137.60 region, just above a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The overnight hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushes the US Dollar to a three-month high, which, in turn, is seen acting as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair. In the prepared remarks for his semi-annual congressional testimony, Powell indicated that interest rates might need to go up faster and higher than previously anticipated. Powell added that the Fed is prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes to combat stubbornly high inflation and warned against prematurely loosening policy. This, in turn, lifts bets for a 50 bps rate hike at the March policy meeting and remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond is holding steady near the 4.0% threshold and the rate-sensitive two-year Treasury note stands tall near its highest level since 2007. This continues to lend support to the Greenback, which, along with expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will maintain the ultra-loose policy settings, is pushing the USD/JPY pair higher. It is worth recalling that the incoming BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda last week stressed the need to maintain the ultra-loose policy to support the fragile economy.  Ueda also said that the central bank isn't seeking a quick move away from a decade of massive easing. This marks a big divergence in comparison to the Fed's hawkish stance and supports prospects for a further appreciating move for the USD/JPY pair. That said, the risk-off mood benefits the JPY's safe-haven status and keeps a lid on any further gains for the major. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted firmly in favour of bullish traders. Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the release of the ADP report on private-sector employment and JOLTS Job Openings data. Apart from this, Powell's second day of testimony before the House Financial Services Committee should influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to the USD/JPY pair. The focus will then shift to the BoJ meeting and the US NFP report on Friday.
The Commodities Feed: Specs continue to cut oil longs

WTI Crude Oil Remains On The Bear’s Radar

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 08.03.2023 08:50
WTI retreats from intraday high, consolidates the biggest daily loss in two months. 200-HMA, sluggish RSI restricts immediate moves below the key resistances. One-week-old horizontal line, 100-HMA restricts immediate upside. Ascending trend line from late February challenges bears before giving them control. WTI crude oil fades the early Asian session corrective bounce as it retreats to $77.65 amid Wednesday morning in Europe. That said, the black gold marked the biggest daily loss since early January the previous. The energy benchmark’s losses on Tuesday dragged it below the 100-Hour Moving Average (HMA), as well as one-week-old horizontal support, now immediate resistance around $78.40. However, the oversold RSI (14) and the 200-HMA seem to have prodded the Oil bears afterward. It should be noted that the commodity bears remain hopeful unless the quote trades below the 100-HMA level of $78.80. In a case where the WTI buyers keep the reins past $78.80, the last Friday’s high near $79.90 and the $80.00 round figure could check the upside momentum before directing the run-up towards the monthly high surrounding $81.00. On the flip side, an upward-sloping support line from February 22, close to $76.80, puts a floor under the Oil price. Following that, a downturn towards the February 22 swing low of $73.85 and then to the previous monthly bottom surrounding $72.50 can’t be ruled out. Overall, WTI crude oil remains on the bear’s radar despite the latest corrective move. WTI: Hourly chart Trend: Further downside expected
Any Upside Momentum For AUD/USD Is Likely To Remain Capped At Monday’s High

Limited Recovery Of The Aussie Pair Is Expected

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 08.03.2023 08:45
AUD/USD picks up bids to pare the biggest daily loss in a month. Short-term support line joins oversold RSI (14) to trigger corrective rebound. Previous support line from February, 50-SMA restrict recovery moves. Multiple levels to prod the Aussie pair bears around 0.6540-20 region. AUD/USD recovers from a four-month low surrounding 0.6565 as it approaches the 0.6600 threshold heading into Wednesday’s European session, poking 0.6595 by the press time. In doing so, the Aussie pair bounce off a two-week-old descending support line while paring the biggest daily loss since February 03. Not only the downward-sloping support line from February 17 but the oversold RSI (14) also puts a floor under the AUD/USD price. The recovery moves, however, remain elusive as the previous support line from February 06, close to 0.6625 at the latest, guards the pair’s nearby upside. Following that, the 50-SMA hurdle surrounding 0.6725 can challenge the AUD/USD buyers. It should be noted that the upside break of 0.6725 isn’t an open invitation to the AUD/USD bulls as the monthly high near 0.6775 appears the key hurdle. Meanwhile, a downside break of the aforementioned support line, close to 0.6565 at the latest, could drag the Aussie prices towards the 0.6540-20 support zone as multiple levels marked in October 2022 might challenge the bears afterward. In a case where the AUD/USD pair remains bearish past 0.6520, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the previous yearly low surrounding 0.6170 can’t be ruled out. AUD/USD: Four-hour chart Trend: Limited recovery expected
The USD/MXN Pair Could Then Aim To Surpass The February Monthly Swing High

The USD/MXN Pair Is Likely To Remain Depressed

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 08.03.2023 08:43
USD/MXN struggles to extend two-day rebound from multi-month low, sidelined of late. Failure to cross 50-EMA, one-month-old falling trend line recalls bears. One-week-long horizontal support area can restrict immediate downside. USD/MXN retreats from intraday high, snapping a two-day uptrend, as it drops to 18.10 heading into Wednesday’s European session. In doing so, the Mexican Peso (MXN) pair fades the early-week rebound from the lowest levels since April 2018. USD/MXN rose the most in more than a month the previous day on crossing the one-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 18.03-07. The recovery moves also surpass a downward-sloping trend line from February 06. However, failure to cross a convergence of the one-month-long descending resistance line and 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 18.15-16 by the press time, recalled the USD/MXN bears. Even so, the previous support line from early February, around 18.10 restricts the quote’s immediate downside ahead of the resistance-turned-support zone near 18.07-03. Following that, the 18.00 round figure could prod the USD/MXN bears before directing them to the recently flashed multi-month low of 17.94. On the contrary, a clear upside break of the 18.15-16 resistance confluence becomes necessary for the USD/MXN bulls to take entries. Though, the Mexican Peso pair buyers remain off the table unless witnessing a clear upside break of the one-month-old horizontal resistance, around 18.50. Overall, USD/MXN is likely to remain depressed even as the buyers managed to keep the reins in the last two days. USD/MXN: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected
Decline of Canadian retails sales plays in favour of holding the rates by Bank of Canada

The Canadian Dollar Is Expected To Deliver Power-Pack Volatility

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 08.03.2023 08:40
USD/CAD has printed a fresh four-month high at 1.3774 as the risk-aversion theme has strengthened further. Federal Reserve Powell has confirmed that the risk of persistent inflation is real and a higher terminal rate is expected than prior. Bank of Canada might keep interest rates steady as announced earlier. USD/CAD is running higher with sheer momentum considering the bullish message from indicators and oscillators. USD/CAD has printed a fresh four-month high at 1.3774 in the Asian session. The Loonie asset witnessed a stellar buying interest after extremely hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday. The major has continued its upside journey as the impact of Federal Reserve Powell’s hawkish remarks has not been fully discounted yet. S&P500 futures have retreated after an extremely weak recovery in the Asian session, portraying a healthy risk-off mood as the recovery movement has been capitalized by the market participants for making fresh shorts. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has refreshed its three-month high above 105.80 and is gathering strength for making more gains. A confirmation of bigger rates from Federal Reserve’s Powell has resulted in more fuel for US Treasury yields. The return on 10-year US Treasury bonds has recaptured the 4.0%. Rising US yields might result in a heavy sell-off in growth and tech stocks as their future cash flows will be discounted at a higher rate. Fed Powell endorses a higher terminal rate than previously anticipated The street is aware of the United States' persistent inflation and the need of bringing it down quickly to comfort households from rising payouts. The US inflation was declining at a higher rate than anticipation till December. However, January’s above-targeted inflation figures, resilience in consumer spending, and surprising heavy addition of payrolls in the labor market have renewed fears of stubborn inflation. This forced Fed’s Powell to sound extremely hawkish for interest rate guidance. Fed’s Powell in his testimony before Congress cited “ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated,” after the “latest economic data have come in stronger than expected.” US Employment to provide more clarity on interest rate guidance This week, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller cited February’s strong economic indicators as a one-time blip and the price pressures will resume their downtrend from next month. Contrary to that, Federal Reserve’s Powell was extremely harsh on interest rate guidance. For clarity, investors are keenly awaiting the release of the United States Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change data, which is seen at 200K, higher than the former release of 106K. An upbeat US ADP Employment data will bolster the case of a bigger rate hike by the Fed in its March monetary policy meeting. As per the CME FedWatch tool, the chances of 50 basis points (bps) rate hike have reached 72%. Bank of Canada to keep monetary policy steady The Canadian Dollar is expected to deliver power-pack volatility as the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce the interest rate decision ahead. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has already announced a pause in the policy tightening spell as the central bank believes that the current monetary policy is restrictive enough to tame Canada’s sticky inflation. An unchanged monetary policy by the Bank of Canada and rising chances of bigger rates from the Federal Reserve will lead to a divergence in the Fed-BoC policy. USD/CAD technical outlook USD/CAD has come out of the previous seven-day consolidation and has also delivered a breakout of the Descending Triangle chart pattern on the daily scale. The downward-sloping trendline of the chart pattern is plotted from October 13 high at 1.3978 while the horizontal support is placed from November 15 low at 1.3226. Advancing 10-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3634 indicates that the upside momentum is extremely powerful. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, indicating that the bullish momentum is already active.
The USD/INR Pair Traders Could Be The Cautious Mood Ahead Of The Key Inflation Numbers For India And The US

The USD/INR Pair Is Expected To Remain Volatile

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 08.03.2023 08:39
USD/INR has climbed to near 82.30 amid a strengthening risk-off mood. The demand for US government bonds has dropped dramatically, which has pushed the 10-year US Treasury yields above 4.0%. Fed’s Powell believes that the terminal rate is likely to be higher than earlier expected. The USD/INR pair has witnessed stellar buying interest at the opening as investors have started discounting the impact of the overnight jump in the US Dollar Index (DXY). The USD Index has printed a fresh three-month high above 105.80 as the Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell has endorsed a higher terminal rate to tame the persistent inflation. S&P500 futures have surrendered their nominal gains generated in the Asian session, portraying an increase in the strength of the risk-aversion theme. The demand for US government bonds has dropped dramatically, which has pushed the 10-year US Treasury yields above 4.0%. It seems that January’s above-targeted inflation figures, resilience in consumer spending, and surprising heavy addition of payrolls in the labor market forced Fed’s Powell to sound extremely hawkish for interest rate guidance. Fed’s Powell cited “Ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated,” after the “latest economic data have come in stronger than expected.” The USD/INR is expected to remain volatile ahead of the release of the United States Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change data. As per the preliminary estimates, the economic data is seen at 200K, higher than the former release of 106K. On the oil front, oil prices have dropped below $78.00 amid the mounting risk of recession in the US economy. From a longer-term perspective, Haitham Al Ghais, the Secretary-General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said, “China is expected to account for 500k-600K bpd (barrels per day) of new oil demand this year.“ He further added, “We are cautiously optimistic about China, but Europe is a concern.” It is worth noting that India is one of the leading importers of oil and higher oil prices will support the Indian Rupee.
Sharp drop in Canadian inflation suggests rates have peaked

The Divergent Fed-Boc Policy Outlook Suggests That The Path Of Least Resistance For The Loonie Prices Is To The Upside

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 07.03.2023 09:05
USD/CAD extends its sideways consolidative price moves through the early European session. Bullish Oil prices underpin the Loonie and act as a headwind amid a modest USD weakness. The downside remains cushioned ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony. The USD/CAD pair continues with its struggle to gain any meaningful traction on Tuesday and remains confined in a familiar trading range around the 1.3600 mark through the early European session. The latest optimism over a fuel demand recovery in China pushes Crude Oil prices to the highest level since last January, which, in turn, underpins the commodity-linked Loonie. Apart from this, a generally positive risk tone is seen weighing on the safe-haven US Dollar and acting as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair. The downside, however, remains cushioned as traders seem reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of this week's key event/data risks and await a fresh catalyst before positioning for the next leg of a directional move. Tuesday's key focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's semi-annual congressional testimony, which will be looked upon for clues about the future rate-hike path amid bets for a 50 bps lift-off at the March FOMC meeting. The expectations were lifted by the incoming US macro data, which indicated that inflation isn't coming down quite as fast as hoped and pointed to an economy that remains resilient despite rapidly rising borrowing costs. Adding to this, a slew of FOMC policymakers recently backed the case for higher rate hikes. In contrast, the Bank of Canada (BoC) had signalled in January a likely pause in its tightening cycle and is now expected to leave rates unchanged at the upcoming policy meeting on Wednesday. This will be followed by the monthly employment details from Canada and the US (NFP), which should help determine the near-term trajectory for the USD/CAD pair. Nevertheless, the divergent Fed-BoC policy outlook suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside and any meaningful dip is likely to get bought into.
Uncertain Path Ahead: Will Silver Regain Historic Highs?

The Silver Price Is Likely To Remain Pressured

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 07.03.2023 08:53
Silver price retreats towards intraday low, defends previous day’s pullback from one-week high. One-week-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern joins downbeat MACD signals to favor sellers. Previous resistance line from early February lures XAG/USD bears. Silver price (XAG/USD) stays on the bear’s radar, despite an early-day attempt to tease buyers, as the metal drops to $21.05 amid the initial European session on Tuesday. In doing so, the bullion defends the week-start pullback from the highest levels since February 24. That said, the bright metal portrays a one-week-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern. The same join the bearish MACD signals to strengthen the downside bias. However, a clear break of $21.00 becomes necessary to witness a downtrend towards a one-month-old previous resistance line, near $20.10 by the press time. It should be observed that the latest swing low near $20.40 and the $20.00 round figure appear as the extra filters toward the south. On the flip side, a downward-sloping resistance line from February 09, close to $21.20 at the latest, restricts the XAU/USD’s immediate recovery ahead of the stated wedge’s top line, near 21.40 by the press time. Even if the Silver price crosses the $21.40 hurdle, the late February swing high near the $22.00 round figure could act as the validation point for the metal’s run-up toward the previous monthly high surrounding $24.65. Overall, the Silver price is likely to remain pressured as traders await the key weekly event, namely Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s Testimony. Silver price: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected
InstaForex's Ralph Shedler talks Euro against Japanese yen

The Bank Of Japan Is Expected To Remain Dovish

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 07.03.2023 08:51
USD/JPY is oscillating around 136.00, downside looks favored amid the risk-on mood. An upbeat market mood has pushed the 10-year US Treasury yields below 3.96%. The BoJ is expected to remain dovish as current inflationary pressures in Japan are the outcome of international forces. The USD/JPY pair is displaying a back-and-firth action around 136.00 in the early European session. The asset has turned sideways as investors are awaiting fresh triggers for further guidance. Right from Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to the interest rate decision by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the United States Employment report, plenty of events will be held this week. Meanwhile, S&P500 futures have picked some bids after a choppy Monday, portraying a cheerful market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is demonstrating signs of recovery after printing a day low at 104.16. The USD Index bulls could retreat amid the risk appetite theme, underpinned by the market participants. An upbeat market mood has also improved demand for US government bonds and has pushed the 10-year US Treasury yields below 3.96%. Two-day Fed Powell’s testimony before Congress will provide meaningful cues. The street is having mixed responses toward commentary as one school of thought expects a hawkish commentary amid higher inflationary pressures while the other school of thought sees a neutral stance as many things bank upon February’s data. Going ahead, if United States inflation continues to persist, the Unemployment Rate remains at lower levels, and consumer spending remains resilient, Fed Powell would have no other option than to push rates higher. On the Tokyo front, the interest rate decision by the BoJ will remain in action. The BoJ is expected to remain dovish as current inflationary pressures in Japan are the outcome of international forces as the economy is struggling to accelerate wages and domestic growth.  
The USD/MXN Pair Could Then Aim To Surpass The February Monthly Swing High

The Mexican Peso (MXN) Pair Can Extend Its Bearish Mood

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 07.03.2023 08:47
USD/MXN takes offers to reverse the week-start corrective bounce off multi-month low. Bearish MACD signals, sustained trading below 50-DMA keep sellers hopeful. Convergence of previous support line from November 2022, one-month-old descending trend line appears crucial hurdle towards the north. USD/MXN bears are back to the table, following a one-day absence, as the Mexican Peso (MXN) pair drops to 17.99, down 0.10% intraday during early Tuesday in Europe. In doing so, the currency pair reverses the previous day’s corrective bounce from the lowest levels since April 2018. It’s worth noting that the USD/MXN pair’s latest losses take clues from the bearish MACD signals, as well as the sustained trading below the 50-DMA. Adding strength to the bearish bias could be the quote’s failure to cross the $1,810 resistance confluence during the previous day’s rebound. That said, a downward-sloping trend line from early February and a 14-week-old descending trend line, previous support, together constitute the 18.10 resistance confluence. Should the quote rises past the 18.10 hurdle, the pair’s run-up towards a five-week-old horizontal resistance near 18.50 can’t be ruled out. However, the USD/MXN bears remain hopeful unless the quote trades below the 50-DMA level of 18.75. On the contrary, the latest bottom of around 17.95 and April 2018 low of 17.90 lure the USD/MXN pair sellers of late. Following that, September 2017 low and the year 2017 trough, close to 17.60 and 17.45 in that order, may flash on the bear’s radar. USD/MXN: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected
Australian dollar against US dollar - "It seems that the currency will soon hit a price above 0.68"

AUD/USD Pair Is Showing A Tad Longer Consolidation

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 07.03.2023 08:45
AUD/USD has failed to capitalize on the hawkish RBA policy. The RBA continued the 25 bps rate hike spree and pushed the OCR to 3.60%. Australia’s monthly CPI indicator suggests that inflation has peaked. The AUD/USD pair is displaying a sideways auction in the early European session after a Reserve bank of Australia (RBA)’s monetary policy-inspired volatility. The Aussie asset looks vulnerable above the 0.6700 support despite the upbeat market mood. In the interest rate decision, RBA Governor Philip Lowe pushed the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) consecutively for the fifth time to 3.60% to sharpen monetary tools in the battle against persistent Australian inflation. RBA’s Lowe cited “The monthly CPI indicator suggests that inflation has peaked in Australia,” as reported by Reuters. Further downside in the US Dollar Index (DXY) looks likely amid the absence of recovery signs after printing a fresh day low near 104.16. S&P500 futures have reported more gains, indicating that investors have underpinned the risk-appetite theme. AUD/USD is showing a tad longer consolidation in the range of 0.6700-0.6784 on an hourly scale. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6737 is acting as a major barricade for the Australian Dollar. A slippage by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) in the bearish range of 20.00-40.00 is indicating a downside momentum ahead. A downside move below March 01 low around 0.6700 will drag the Aussie toward December 07 low at 0.6669 and December 20 low at 0.6629. In an alternate scenario, a confident break above March 01 high at 0.6784 will send the asset toward the round-level resistance at 0.6800 followed by February 06 low at 0.6855. AUD/USD hourly chart  
New Zealand dollar against US dollar decreased by 1.07% yesterday

The Kiwi Pair’s (NZD/USD) Bears Remains Weak

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 07.03.2023 08:42
NZD/USD grinds higher around intraday top, stays firmer past the key supports. Upbeat MACD, RSI signals hint at the Kiwi pair’s further run-up. One-month-old horizontal resistance area challenges bulls; 200-DMA restricts immediate downside. NZD/USD seesaws around intraday high near 0.6210, up 0.40% on a day, as bulls cheer the previous day’s inability to conquer the 200-DMA support amid early Tuesday. In doing so, the Kiwi pair buyers also benefit from the upbeat oscillators while heading into a short-term key resistance. A looming bullish cross on the MACD joins the RSI (14) rebound towards the 50 line to underpin the hopes of the NZD/USD pair’s further recovery. However, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since early February, near 0.6270-75, appears a tough nut to crack for the Kiwi pair buyers to cross for conviction. Following that, a run-up towards the mid-February swing high near 0.6390, quickly followed by the 0.6400 threshold, can’t be ruled out. On the flip side, the 200-DMA support level of 0.6165 restricts short-term declines of the NZD/USD pair. Even if the Kiwi prices drop below 0.6165 DMA support, the previous resistance line from early February, near 0.6130 at the latest, could challenge the bears. It’s worth noting that the 0.6130 level also becomes important as it encompasses the previous monthly low. Should the NZD/USD bears remains weak past 0.6130, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the mid-November 2022 low near 0.6060 can’t be ruled out. NZD/USD: Daily chart Trend: Sideways
InstaForex's Ralph Shedler talks Euro against Japanese yen

The Downside For The USD/JPY Pair Seems Cushioned Amid The Divergent Bank Of Japan-Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Outlook

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 06.03.2023 09:02
USD/JPY drifts lower for the second successive day on Monday, albeit lacks follow-through. Retreating US bond yields keeps the USD bulls on the defensive and exerts some pressure. The divergent Fed-BoJ policy outlook limits losses ahead of this week’s key event/data risks. The USD/JPY pair remains under some selling pressure for the second successive day on Monday and moves further away from the YTD peak, around the 137.10 region touched last week. The pair, however, recovers a few pips from the daily low and trades just above mid-135.00s during the early European session, down around 0.20% for the day. The US Dollar kicks off the new week on a subdued note amid a modest downtick in the US Treasury bond yields and turns out to be a key factor weighing on the USD/JPY pair lower. Apart from this, looming recession risks seem to benefit the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY) and contribute to the offered tone surrounding the major. Worries about a deeper global economic downturn resurfaced after China set a lower-than-expected target for economic growth and forecast that the economy would expand by 5% in 2023. The downside for the USD/JPY pair, meanwhile, seems cushioned amid the divergent Bank of Japan-Federal Reserve monetary policy outlook. In fact,  the incoming BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stressed the need to maintain the ultra-loose policy to support the fragile economy and said last week that the central bank isn't seeking a quick move away from a decade of massive easing. In contrast, the US central bank is universally expected to stick to its hawkish stance and keep rates higher for longer to tame high inflation. The incoming US macro data indicated that inflation isn't coming down quite as fast as hoped and pointed to an economy that remains resilient despite rising borrowing costs. Adding to this, a slew of FOMC members backed the case for higher rate hikes and opened the door for a 50 bps lift-off at the March policy meeting.  This should act as a tailwind for the US bond yields and favours the USD bulls, which supports prospects for the emergence of dip-buying around the USD/JPY and warrants caution for bears. Traders might also prefer to move to the sidelines ahead of this week's key event/data risks, starting with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's semi-annual congressional testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday. Investors will look for fresh clues about the Fed's future rate-hike path, which will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics. This will be followed by the BoJ monetary policy meeting on Friday and the release of the closely-watched US monthly employment details, popularly known as NFP.
Central Banks and Inflation: Lessons from History and Current Realities

Further Upside Movement Of The GBP/JPY Pair Is Expected

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 06.03.2023 08:51
GBP/JPY picks up bids to pare intraday losses, mildly offered after three-week uptrend. 50-EMA, one-month-old ascending trend line restricts immediate downside. Sluggish oscillators channel buyers on their way to refresh 2023 top. GBP/JPY marks a consecutive fourth bounce off a one-month-old ascending trend line, as well as the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA), as it consolidates the daily loss around 163.35 during the early hours of Monday’s trading in London. It’s worth observing that the sluggish prints of the MACD signals, mostly bearish, join the steady RSI (14) line to challenge the cross-currency pair’s immediate moves. Also acting as an immediate upside hurdle is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of February’s upside, near 163.80. Following that, 164.50 and 164.80 can act as extra filters to the north before directing the GBP/JPY bulls towards the previous monthly high, also the highest level of 2023, surrounding the 166.00 round figure. Should the quote remains firmer past 166.00, the last December’s peak of 169.30 and the 170.00 psychological magnet might lure the GBP/JPY buyers ahead of highlighting the previous yearly top of 172.13 as the next target. On the flip side, a clear downside break of the 163.00 support confluence could quickly fetch the GBP/JPY price towards the mid-February peak of near 162.20. If the cross-currency pair remains weak past 162.20, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, around 161.35 and 160.30 in that order, can lure the bears. GBP/JPY: Four-hour chart Trend: Further upside expected
USD/CAD - Canadian economy added 41,400 jobs beating expectations

A Modest Pullback In Crude Oil Prices Undermines The Commodity-Linked Loonie

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 06.03.2023 08:47
USD/CAD struggles to gain any meaningful traction and oscillates in a range on Monday. Retreating US bond yields keeps the USD bulls on the defensive and acts as a headwind. A modest downtick in Oil prices undermines the Loonie and lends support to the major. The USD/CAD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses, around the 1.3600 mark heading into the European session. The pair, meanwhile, remains within Friday's broader trading range and is influenced by a combination of diverging forces. A softer tone surrounding the US Treasury bond yields keeps the US Dollar bulls on the defensive, which, in turn, acts as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair. That said, a modest pullback in Crude Oil prices - amid worries that a deeper global economic downturn will dent fuel demand - undermines the commodity-linked Loonie and lends some support to the major. The fears resurfaced after China set a lower-than-expected target for economic growth and forecast that the economy would expand by 5% in 2023. Apart from this, growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve will stick to its hawkish stance favour the USD bulls and support prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying around the USD/CAD pair. The incoming US macro data indicated that inflation isn't coming down quite as fast as hoped and pointed to an economy that remains resilient despite rising borrowing costs. Adding to this, a slew of FOMC members backed the case for higher rate hikes and opened the door for a 50 bps lift-off at the March policy meeting. Hence, the market focus will remain glued to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's semi-annual congressional testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday. Powell's comments will be closely scrutinized for clues about the Fed's future rate-hike path, which will play a key role in influencing the near-term trajectory of the USD. Investors this week will also confront the release of the closely-watched US monthly jobs report, popularly known as NFP on Friday, to determine the next leg of a directional move for the USD/CAD pair and before placing aggressive bets. Heading into the key event/data risks, the US bond yields and the broader market risk sentiment will continue to drive the USD demand and provide some impetus to the USD/CAD pair. Apart from this, Oil price dynamics should allow traders to grab short-term opportunities in the absence of any relevant market-moving economic releases on Monday, either from the US or Canada. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop favours bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the major is to the upside.
The USD/MXN Pair’s Further Moves Rely On The Mexican Inflation Data

The Mexican Peso (MXN) Pair Tracks The Market’s Consolidation Mode

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 06.03.2023 08:43
USD/MXN licks its wound near the lowest levels since April 2018. Mexican Peso marked the biggest weekly gains in seven months amid broad US Dollar declines. Key data/events eyed for clear directions, Fed Chair Powell needs to defend hawkish bias to avoid further USD fall. USD/MXN prints mild gains around 17.98 as it pares the biggest weekly loss in seven months during early Monday in Europe. In doing so, the Mexican Peso (MXN) pair tracks the market’s consolidation mode ahead of the top-tier data events. Even so, the US Dollar’s failure to regain the upside momentum, mainly due to the downbeat Treasury bond yields, joins the fresh concerns suggesting a monetary policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and Banxico to probe the USD/MXN buyers. The recently mixed concerns surrounding China and the weakness in Oil prices could be linked to the USD/MXN pair’s latest rebound. That said, the National Development and Reform Commission of the People's Republic of China (NDRC) recently said, it “Will further release the potential for consumption,” while also adding that China's economy steadily improving, per Reuters. Earlier in the day, market sentiment turned sour after China’s annual session of the National People's Congress (NPC) appeared a grim event due to its growth target and geopolitical concerns. Elsewhere, the Fed policymakers’ indecision and mixed US data contrast with Banxico’s hawkish bias to keep the USD/MXN bears hopeful. During the weekend, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly highlighted the importance of incoming data to determine how high the rates can go. Previously, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic renewed concerns about the Fed’s policy pivot while Federal Reserve published a semi-annual Monetary Policy Report on Friday wherein it clearly said, “Ongoing increases in the Fed funds rate target are necessary.” The report also stated that the Fed is strongly committed to getting inflation back to 2%. Talking about the data, softer prints of the latest US Consumer Confidence, ISM PMI and Durable Goods Orders seem to challenge the US Dollar bulls. Alternatively, Mexico’s upbeat outcomes of the seasonally adjusted Trade Balance and Unemployment Rate for January seemed to have favored the USD/MXN bears. Against this backdrop, US 10-year Treasury bond yields, rose to the highest levels since November 2022 in the last week before easing to 3.95% by the end of Friday, making rounds to the same level at the latest. More importantly, the US two-year bond coupons rose to the highest levels last seen in 2008 before retreating to 4.85% by the press time. That said, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains, tracking Wall Street’s moves amid a light sluggish start to the key week. Looking forward, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Testimony, China’s inflation data and Friday’s US jobs report for February, are likely to be the key catalysts to watch for clear directions. At home, Mexican Inflation data for February, up for publishing on Thursday, will be crucial for the guide. Technical analysis Although April 2018 low near 17.93 restricts immediate USD/MXN downside, the pair’s recovery moves remain unimpressive below the previous support line from late November 2022, close to 18.15 by the press time.
RBNZ preview: Fiscal spending argues for a hawkish 25bp hike

The NZD/USD Pair Is Likely To Grind Lower Further

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 06.03.2023 08:41
NZD/USD fades bounce off three-month low, holds lower ground of late. Bearish MACD signals join failure to cross the convergence of 100-SMA, one-month-old resistance line to lure sellers. Fortnight-long horizontal support area restricts immediate downside ahead of February’s low. NZD/USD remains depressed around 0.6210 as it pares the previous week’s gains, the first in five, heading into Monday’s European session. In doing so, the Kiwi pair portrays the bear’s dominance between the key trading area between the 0.6245-50 resistance confluence and 0.6200-6190 support zone. That said, the bearish MACD signals join the pair’s failure to cross the 0.6245-50 resistance confluence, including the 100-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a one-month-long descending resistance line, to keep sellers hopeful. However, multiple levels marked since late February could challenge the NZD/USD pair’s immediate downside around 0.6200-6190. Should the quote remains weak past 0.6190, the odds of witnessing a quick drop to the previous monthly low of 0.6131 can’t be ruled out. Though, July 2022 low of 0.6060 and the 0.6000 psychological magnet could restrict the pair’s further downside. Alternatively, a successful break of the 0.6250 hurdle becomes necessary to direct the NZD/USD buyers toward the 200-SMA hurdle of 0.6335. Following that, the mid-February high surrounding 0.6390 and the 0.6400 round figure could become important to watch for the bulls. Overall, NZD/USD is likely to grind lower and advocates further volatility. NZD/USD: Four-hour chart Trend: Limited downside expected
Analysis Of Situation Of The USD/INR Pair

The USD/INR Pair Remains In Bearish Mood

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 06.03.2023 08:38
USD/INR bounces off multi-day low to consolidate the first weekly loss in six. Convergence of 100-DMA, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement guards recovery moves. A 4.5-month-old symmetrical triangle advocates volatility; 200-DMA appears extra filter towards the south. USD/INR prints mild gains around 81.85 as the bears lick their wounds early Monday. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair rebounds from the lowest levels since February 02, marked the previous day, to consolidate the biggest weekly loss since early November. It’s worth noting that the quote marked the first weekly negative closing in six by the end of Friday’s North American session. Overall, the USD/INR pair remains inside a broad symmetrical triangle comprising multiple levels marked since October 2022, currently between 82.90 and 81.30. That said, the bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI (14) raise doubts about the USD/INR pair’s corrective bounce off the multi-day low. Even if the quote remains firmer, the 100-DMA and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s August-October 2022 upside, near 82.15-20, appears a tough nut to crack for the USD/INR bulls. On the contrary, the USD/INR pair’s fresh weakness could aim for the stated triangle’s support line of around 81.30 before challenging the 200-DMA support of near the 81.00 round figure. Should the USD/INR pair remains weak past 81.00, lows marked during January 2022 and the last November, respectively near 80.90 and 80.35, might gain the market’s attention. USD/INR: Daily chart Trend: Bearish
Sharp drop in Canadian inflation suggests rates have peaked

The USD/CAD pair is currently placed around the 1.3575

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 03.03.2023 09:02
USD/CAD meets with a fresh supply on Friday and is pressured by a combination of factors. Bullish Oil prices underpin the Loonie and act as a headwind amid a modest USD weakness. Recession fears, hawkish Fed expectations should limit losses for the USD and lend support. The USD/CAD pair attracts some sellers near the 1.3600 round-figure mark on Friday and maintains its offered tone through the early European session. The pair is currently placed around the 1.3575 region, down just over 0.10% for the day, though any meaningful downside still seems elusive. Crude Oil prices hold steady near a two-week high touched on Thursday amid the latest optimism about a strong fuel demand recovery in China - the world's top importer. This, in turn, is seen underpinning the commodity-linked Loonie, which, along with a modest US Dollar downtick, exerts some downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair. That said, growing worries that rapidly rising borrowing costs will dampen global economic growth and dent fuel demand could cap gains for Oil prices. Apart from this, hawkish Fed expectations support prospects for the emergence of some USD dip buying and should contribute to limiting losses for the major. The US CPI, PPI and the PCE Price Index released recently indicated that inflation isn't coming down quite as fast as hoped. Moreover, the incoming upbeat US macro data, including the Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, pointed to a resilient economy. Adding to this, a slew of FOMC members backed the case for higher rate hikes to tame stubbornly high inflation and remains supportive of elevated US bond yields. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond rose to its highest level since last November and the rate-sensitive two-year Treasury note shot to levels last seen in July 2007, which, in turn, favours the USD bulls. Apart from this, speculations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) could pause the policy-tightening cycle, bolstered by the softer Canadian CPI report released last week, warrant caution before placing aggressive bearish bets around the USD/CAD pair. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the recent upward trajectory witnessed over the past two weeks or so has run its course. Traders now look to the release of the US ISM Services PMI, due later during the early North American session. Apart from this, Oil price dynamics should provide some meaningful impetus on the last day of the week.
Technical analysis of Silver by Alexandros Yfantis - May 5th

Silver Buyers Are All Set To Extend The Latest Recovery Moves

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 03.03.2023 08:52
Silver price clings to 200-DMA as buyers struggle to extend key trend line breakout. Looming bull cross on MACD, nearly oversold RSI conditions favor bullish bias. Previous resistance line from early February, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level restricts immediate downside. Silver price (XAG/USD) prints mild gains around $21.00 as it braces for the first weekly gain in seven during early Friday in Europe. In doing so, the bright metal seesaws around the 200-DMA while keeping the previous day’s break out of the one-month-old descending resistance line, now support around $20.60. Adding strength to the $20.60 support is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the metal’s run-up from October 2022 to February 2023. The impending bull cross on the MACD indicator and the RSI (14) rebound from the oversold territory also appears to favor the Silver buyers, in addition to the sustained break of the previous key resistance and the successful rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, also known as golden Fibonacci retracement ratio. As a result, the XAG/USD buyers are all set to extend the latest recovery moves toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $21.36, given the daily closing beyond the 200-DMA level of $21.00. However, the convergence of a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 100-DMA, around $22.15, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls afterward. Meanwhile, pullback moves need to provide a daily closing below $20.60 support confluence, mentioned the previous day, to recall the Silver sellers. Following that, the $20.00 psychological magnet and October 2022 low near $18.10 could gain the XAG/USD bear’s attention. Silver price: Daily chart Trend: Further upside expected
Japanese yen increased by over 0.5% on Friday. Japanese monetary policy may change soon

USD/JPY Pair Is Aiming To Recapture The Immediate Resistance Of 137.00

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 03.03.2023 08:50
USD/JPY is looking to recapture the 137.00 resistance despite the risk appetite having improved. Modest dovish commentary from Federal Reserve Waller has triggered volatility in the USD Index. Bank of Japan might infuse more liquidity to fade the impact of a fresh decline in the Tokyo inflation. USD/JPY is struggling to shift its auction above the 38.2% Fibo retracement plotted at 136.85. USD/JPY is juggling in a limited range around 136.60 in the Asian session. The asset has rebounded from 136.50 and is aiming to recapture the immediate resistance of 137.00 as the Tokyo Inflation has softened dramatically for the first time after a nine-month period escalation. Lower food and energy prices have trimmed the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) while the core inflation that strips off the impact of food and oil steadily improved. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is on the verge of delivering a downside break below 104.80 amid an absence of recovery signals. The downside pressure in the USD Index has built amid modest dovish commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller. Fed Waller cited February’s inflation recovery as a one-time blip and the price pressures will resume their downtrend from next month. S&P500 futures have recovered the majority of losses recorded in the Asian session, portraying a decent recovery in the risk appetite of the market participants. The demand for US government bonds has recovered marginally amid ease in the risk aversion theme. This has pushed the 10-year US Treasury yields below 4.05%. Upbeat US Services PMI could fuel hawkish Fed bets Anxiety among the market participants is gradually escalating ahead of the release of the United States Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Services PMI data. The economic data is seen lower at 54.5 from the former release of 55.2. The New Orders Index which conveys the forward demand is expected to decline to 58.5 from the prior figure of 60.4. Earlier, the US Manufacturing PMI displayed a fourth-time contraction, however, the New Orders Index was exceptionally higher. A surprise rise in the Services New Orders Index along with the already upbeat Manufacturing demand outlook will clear that the overall forward demand is in an expansionary mode and could propel the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will bolster expectations of more rates from the Federal Reserve. Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday that the central bank could be in a position to pause the current tightening cycle by mid-to-late summer. He favors a 25 basis points (bps) rate hike in March but has left room opened for more hawkish rate outlook if inflation and labor market data come in stronger. Tokyo Inflation surprisingly decline Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymakers are spending sleepless nights, designing strategies for achieving a stable 2% inflation. The central bank is infusing stimulus into the Japanese economy to fuel wages and domestic demand. Japan’s inflation was fueling constantly, however, a recent decline has alarmed the Bank of Japan policymakers. The annual headline CPI has dropped to 3.4% from the consensus of 4.1% and the prior release of 4.4%. Contrary to that, the core CPI that excludes the impact of energy and food prices have improved to 3.2% from 3.1% as expected and the former release of 3.0%. It seems like the inflationary pressures have been exceptionally battered by the recent fall in food and energy prices. Reuters reported that “The pace of inflation slowed due in part to the government's energy subsidies to ease the pain on households from soaring electricity bills.” Commentary from Bank of Japan Governor Nominee Kazuo Ueda on a fresh decline in the Tokyo CPI will be keenly watched. Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has ordered the ruling party to draft additional measures to counter price hikes, as reported by the Kyodo news agency. The agenda behind that would be supporting households to offset the impact of items such as food and energy, which are highly inflated. On the economic front, a poll by Reuters reported Japan's economy is likely to grow a tad faster than initially estimated in the fourth quarter. Revised Gross Domestic Product (GDP), scheduled for March 9, might grow at 0.8% annualized in October-December, versus an initial estimate of 0.6%. USD/JPY technical outlook USD/JPY is making efforts in overstepping the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (placed from October 21 high at 151.94 to January 16 low at 127.22) at 136.85. A bear cross, represented by the 20-and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 133.27, adds to the downside filters. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which indicates that the bullish momentum is already active.
Any Upside Momentum For AUD/USD Is Likely To Remain Capped At Monday’s High

The US-China Tension At The Group Of 20 Nations (G20) Meeting Checks The Aussie Pair’s Upside Momentum

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 03.03.2023 08:47
AUD/USD grinds near intraday high, defends the first weekly gains in three. Bulls keep the reins amid hopes of US-China peace on trade, upbeat China data and mixed Aussie statistics. Fresh talks of Fed’s pivot trigger retreat in yields and propel Aussie pair. Markets remain dicey ahead of US ISM Services PMI, limiting AUD/USD moves. AUD/USD appears well-set to snap a two-week downtrend as it seesaws around the intraday top of 0.6752 during early Friday in Europe. In doing so, the Aussie pair cheers the US Dollar’s pullback amid risk-positive headlines about China. However, the cautious mood ahead of the US ISM Services PMI and mixed Aussie data, not to forget chatters of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy pivot, seems to probe the bullish bias. Talks surrounding the resumption of the Sino-American trade dialogue seemed to have triggered the market’s optimism of late, which appears to favor the AUD/USD buyers. On the same line could be the hopes for an easy monetary policy from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). However, the US-China tension at the Group of 20 Nations (G20) meeting, amid the former’s push for sanctions on countries having strong ties with Russia and aiding Moscow in the war with Ukraine, pokes the optimism and checks the Aussie pair’s upside momentum. It should be noted that the firmer China data and mixed Aussie figures, as well as the unimpressive US statistics, also challenge the pair traders. That said, China’s Caixin Services PMI traced the latest activity data for the dragon nation while printing 55.00 figures for February, versus 50.0 market forecasts and 52.9 previous readings. At home, Australia’s S&P Global PMIs for February came in firmer and help the AUD/USD buyers to keep the reins. Though, downbeat prints of Australia Home Loans and Investment Lending for Homes, for January, seem to cap the quote of late. On the other hand, the US Jobless Claims dropped to 190K during the week ended on February 24 versus 195K market forecasts and 192K prior. Further, Nonfarm Productivity for the fourth quarter (Q4) eased to 1.7% from 3.0% prior and 2.6% market forecasts while the Unit Labor Costs jumped 3.6% versus 1.6% analysts’ estimations and 1.1% previous readings. Elsewhere, Thursday’s statements from Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic renewed concerns about the Fed’s policy pivot as the decision-maker said, “The central bank could be in a position to pause the current tightening cycle by mid to late summer.” It should be observed, however, that Boston Fed President Susan Collins kept supporting the higher rates for longer as she said, “More rate hikes are required to bring inflation back in control.” Against this backdrop, the 10-year coupons drop two basis points to 4.05% while its two-year counterpart seesaws around 4.89% by the press time. Further, S&P 500 Futures struggle for clear directions after mild losses. The latest Reuters poll suggesting a peak in the RBA rate during the second quarter (Q2) of 2023 joins the polls suggesting the Fed’s policy pivot to challenge the AUD/USD traders. To overcome the indecision, today’s US ISM Services PMI, expected at 54.5 versus 55.2 prior readings, will be crucial ahead of the next week’s key events. Technical analysis AUD/USD portrays a one-month-old falling wedge bullish chart formation. However, a clear break of the 0.6775 hurdle becomes necessary for the buyers to retake control.
The USD/INR Traders Seem To Witness Additional Downside Movement

The USD/INR Traders Seem To Witness Additional Downside Movement

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 03.03.2023 08:44
USD/INR prints five-week losing streak as bears attack the lowest level in nearly a month. Hopes of robust economic recovery in India, hawkish RBI bets underpin INR strength. Fresh chatters surrounding Fed’s policy pivot weigh on prices. US ISM Services PMI should be eyed for intraday directions. USD/INR takes offers to refresh multi-day low near 82.20 amid a broad US Dollar pullback during early Friday. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair drops to the lowest levels since February 09 during the five-day downtrend. US Dollar Index (DXY) traces US Treasury bond yields to print mild losses around 104.90 by the press time. That said, the 10-year coupons drop two basis points to 4.05% whereas its two-year counterpart seesaws around 4.89% by the press time. It should be observed that the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose to a fresh high since early November 2022 while piercing the 4.0% threshold whereas the two-year counterpart rallied to the highest levels since 2007 to 4.94% on Thursday. The latest pullback in the US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar could be linked to the fresh fears of the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy pivot. Also underpinning the USD/INR weakness could be the cautious optimism in Asia, mainly due to the strong China data. However, the anxiety ahead of the US ISM Services PMI for February seems to probe the pair sellers of late. At home, hopes of witnessing a strong recovery of the Indian economy, despite marking downbeat Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the fiscal third quarter (Q3) figures published in the last week. Also, hawkish bias surrounding the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) next move seems to exert downside pressure on the USD/INR pair. Amid these plays, the USD/INR traders seem to witness additional downside unless hitting the 100-DMA support near 82.15. However, upbeat prints of the US ISM Services PMI, expected at 54.5 versus 55.2 prior readings, could propel the pair prices. Also read: ISM Services PMI Preview: Strong figure set to catapult US Dollar to new highs Technical analysis Despite the latest fall, a daily closing below the 100-DMA, around 82.15 by the press time, becomes necessary for the USD/INR bears to retake control. It’s worth noting that the RSI retreats on the daily chart and the MACD also prints bearish signals, which in turn favor the Indian Rupee pair’s latest weakness.
OPEC+ Meeting: Saudi Arabia Implements Deeper Voluntary Cuts to Boost Oil Prices

WTI Crude Oil Price Is Expected Further Upside Movement

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 03.03.2023 08:42
WTI crude oil price struggles around two-week high, eases from four-month-old resistance line of late. Recently firmer MACD signals, upbeat RSI (14) hints at the quote’s further upside, 100-DMA acts as additional resistance. WTI bears remain off the table unless the quote stays beyond one-week-old support line. WTI crude oil buyers take a breather around a fortnight high, printing mild losses near the $78.00 threshold during early Friday. In doing so, the black gold price retreats from a four-month-long resistance line, as well as snapping a three-day winning streak. It’s worth noting that the bullish MACD signals and the firmer RSI (14), not overbought, joins the quote’s successful trading above the one-week-long ascending support line to keep the WTI bulls hopeful of overcoming the adjacent resistance line, close to $78.30 at the latest. However, the 100-DMA hurdle surrounding $79.75 and the $80.00 round figure acts as an extra filter towards the north. In a case where the Oil price remains firmer past $80.00, tops marked in January 2023 and December 2022, respectively near $82.55 and $83.30, could lure the commodity bulls. Alternatively, pullback moves appear unimpressive beyond the aforementioned support line stretched from the last Friday, close to $77.25 at the latest. Following that, a quick drop to the previous weekly low of $73.85 can’t be ruled out. Though, a clear downside break of $73.85 will highlight February’s bottom and December 2022 lows, close to $72.50 and $70.25, as the key support to watch during the commodity’s further downside. WTI: Daily chart Trend: Further upside  expected
Caixin Services PMI Data Has Helped The Chinese Yuan (CNH)

Caixin Services PMI Data Has Helped The Chinese Yuan (CNH)

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 03.03.2023 08:41
USD/CNH has refreshed its day low near 6.8900 as Caixin Services PMI performed better than anticipations. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling to sustain above the immediate support of 104.80. A bear cross, represented by the 20-and 50-period EMAs at 6.9144, adds to the downside filters. The USD/CNH pair has sensed immense selling pressure and has refreshed its day low at 6.8900 in the Asian session. The Chinese Yuan has been strengthened after the release of the solid Caixin Services PMI data. The economic data has landed at 55.0, higher than the consensus of 50.5 and the former release of 52.9. Solid Services PMI figures after strong Manufacturing PMI released on Wednesday indicating an all-round recovery in the Chinese economy after dismantling pandemic controls. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling to sustain above the immediate support of 104.80. S&P500 futures are continuously adding losses, fading the impact of Thursday’s recovery and portraying a sheer drop in investors’ risk appetite. USD/CNH sensed selling pressure after failing to sustain above the 50% Fibonacci retracement (plotted from February 27 high around 6.9900 to March 01 low at 6.8634) at 6.9260. The asset is declining toward the horizontal support placed from February 20 low around 6.8545. A bear cross, represented by the 20-and 50-period EMAs at 6.9144, adds to the downside filters. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is on the verge of drifting below 40.00. A slippage below the same will trigger the downside momentum. Going forward, a slippage below the intraday low at 6.8900 will drag the asset toward the horizontal support placed from February 20 low around 6.8545 followed by February 14 low at 6.8056. Alternatively, an upside move above the 61.8% Fibo retracement around 6.9400 will drive the asset toward February 27 high around 6.9900. A breach of the latter will expose the asset to psychological resistance at 7.0000. USD/CNH hourly chart  
InstaForex's Ralph Shedler talks Euro against Japanese yen

The Cautious Market Mood Could Cap The Upside For The USD/JPY Pair

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 02.03.2023 09:14
USD/JPY catches fresh bids and climbs back closer to the YTD peak amid resurgent USD demand. Hawkish Fed expectations push the US bond yields higher and provide a fresh lift to the Greenback. The divergent Fed-BoJ policy outlook favours bullish traders and supports prospects for further gains. The USD/JPY pair is seen building on the overnight late rebound from the 135.25 area and steadily climbs back closer to the YTD peak during the early European session on Thursday. The pair currently trades around the 136.70 region, with bulls now awaiting a sustained strength beyond the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before placing fresh bets. The US Dollar regains positive traction and reverses a part of the previous day's sharp retracement slide from a multi-week high amid a further rise in the US Treasury bond yields. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond climbs further beyond the 4.0% threshold, hitting its highest level since November 2022, and remains well supported by expectations for further policy tightening by the Fed. The markets seem convinced that the US central bank will keep interest rates higher for longer than previously estimated in the wake of stubbornly high inflation. The bets were lifted by the overnight hawkish remarks by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, reiterating the view that the policy rate needs to rise to the 5.00%-5.25% range and remain at that level well into 2024. Adding to this, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reiterated that inflation in the US is still very high and that their job is to bring it down. Karikari also noted that the risk of under-tightening is greater than the risk of over-tightening.  Furthermore, the US ISM Manufacturing Index showed that the Prices Paid sub-component accelerated to 51.3 in February from 44.5. The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, is undermined by the recent dovish remarks by the incoming BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and Deputy Governor nominee Shinichi Uchida, stressing the need to maintain the ultra-loose monetary policy.  That said, the cautious market mood - amid looming recession risks - could benefit the JPY's safe-haven status and cap the upside for the USD/JPY pair. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a convincing breakout through the 100-day SMA barrier before positioning for an extension of the recent appreciating move witnessed over the past month or so. Market participants now look forward to the release of the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data from the US, due later during the early North American session. This, along with the US bond yields, will drive the USD demand and provide some impetus to the USD/JPY pair. Traders will further take cues from the broader risk sentiment to grab short-term opportunities ahead of speeches by influential FOMC members during the Asian session on Friday.
Australian dollar was boosted by record low Australian unemployment rates, historical local budget surplus and a surprising resumption of cash rate

The Aussie Pair Extends The Previous Day’s Pullback

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 02.03.2023 09:00
AUD/USD takes offers to extend pullback from late February. Previous resistance line, weekly horizontal support can challenge Aussie pair bears amid descending RSI towards oversold territory. U-turn from immediate upside hurdle, bearish MACD signals keep sellers hopeful; bulls need validation from 200-HMA. AUD/USD holds lower grounds near the intraday bottom surrounding 0.6730, reversing the previous day’s gains heading into Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the Aussie pair extends the previous day’s pullback from the February 23 swing low amid bearish MACD signals. Adding strength to the downside bias is the lower-high formation since late Wednesday, as well as the quote’s sustained trading below the 200-Hour Moving Average (HMA). Amid these plays, the AUD/USD pair is all set for further downside. However, a convergence of the previous resistance line from February 20 and a horizontal area comprising the lows marked so far during the current week, around the 0.6700 round figure, appears a tough nut to crack for the sellers. Not only the stated support confluence but the RSI (14) line also challenges the Aussie pair’s further downside by speedily dropping towards the oversold territory. In a case where the AUD/USD remains bearish past 0.6700, a quick fall toward December 2022 low surrounding 0.6630 can’t be ruled out. On the flip side, a successful break of the aforementioned horizontal resistance near 0.6785 guards the AUD/USD pair’s immediate upside. Following that, the 200-HMA level of near 0.6800 may act as the last defense of the bears. AUD/USD: Hourly chart Trend: Limited downside expected
New Zealand dollar against US dollar decreased by 1.07% yesterday

The Kiwi Pair (NZD/USD) Has Sensed Pressure

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 02.03.2023 08:57
NZD/USD has printed a fresh day low at 0.6222 amid the risk-off mood. A mean reversion to near 50-EMA is offering a bargain buy to investors. The RSI (14) is expected to find a cushion around 40.00. The NZD/USD pair has refreshed its day low at 0.6222 in the early European session. The Kiwi asset has sensed pressure and soaring US yields have dampened the market mood. The 10-year US Treasury yields have jumped to near 4.03% and are showing no signs of exhaustion yet. S&P500 futures have tumbled in the Asian session as investors are worried about the recession situation in the United States economy, considering the fact that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will push rates above 5% and will keep them steady beyond 2023. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has refreshed its day high above 104.70 amid the risk-off market mood. NZD/USD has corrected to near the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around 0.6223 after failing to extend its bullish reversal above the horizontal resistance placed from February 21 high at 0.6263 on an hourly scale. A scrutiny of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) indicates that the momentum oscillator has already delivered a bullish reversal. The oscillation range of the RSI (14) has already shifted to 40.00-80.00. Therefore, the momentum indicator is expected to find a cushion at 40.00. The Kiwi asset is offering a buying opportunity near the 50-EMA at 0.6223, which could push the major toward March 1 high at 0.6276 followed by the round-level resistance at 0.6300. In an alternate scenario, a breakdown of January 6 low at 0.6193 will drag the asset toward November 28 low at 0.6155. A slippage below the latter will expose the asset for more downside toward the round-level support at 0.6100. NZD/USD hourly chart  
Analysis Of The USD/TRY Pair: The Turkish Lira Weakness Has Persisted

USD/TRY Pair May Keep Grinding Higher Amid A Lack Of Major Data

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 02.03.2023 08:52
USD/TRY keeps poking the all-time high marked in February, grinds higher of late. US Dollar traces US Treasury bond yields to reverse week-start losses. Downbeat Turkish data, geopolitical tension and CBRT’s hesitance to raise rates keep buyers hopeful. Friday’s Turkish CPI, US ISM Services PMI appear crucial for clear directions. USD/TRY tests bullish commitments around 18.90 amid a sluggish session during early Thursday. In doing so, the Turkish Lira (TRY) pair takes clues from the firmer US Treasury bond yields while also portraying the cautious mood ahead of Turkish inflation data for February, up for publishing on Friday. Hawkish comments from the key central bankers join fears surrounding China and Russia to renew the market’s economic pessimism, which in turn drowns the US Treasury bonds amid a lack of major data/events. The same joins mostly firmer US data, versus downbeat Turkish statistics, to favor the USD/TRY bulls. Against this backdrop, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose to the highest levels since early November 2022 by piercing the 4.0% mark whereas the two-year counterpart rallied to the highest levels since June 2007 by flashing the 4.92% mark at the latest.  The jump in the US Treasury bond yields portrays the market’s fears, which in turn probed bulls on Wall Street and weigh on S&P 500 Futures as of late. It should be noted that the US ISM Manufacturing PMI flashed upbeat details and allowed Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Neel Kashkari to reiterate his hawkish bias. However, the Turkish Gross Domestic Product (GDP), trade numbers and economic confidence have all been softer in their latest readings and propelled the USD/TRY prices. Apart from the data imbalance and hawkish Fed concerns, as well as the yields, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkiye’s (CBRT) hesitance in lifting the benchmark interest rates joins the latest earthquake in the nation to keep the pair buyers hopeful. Moving on, USD/TRY may keep grinding higher amid a lack of major data/events scheduled for release on Thursday. However, tomorrow’s Turkish Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February and the US ISM Services PMI for the said month will be crucial for the pair traders to watch for clear directions. Technical analysis Unless breaking the year 2021’s high surrounding 18.40, the USD/TRY bulls seem gradually rushing toward the 20.00 psychological magnet.
Decline of Canadian retails sales plays in favour of holding the rates by Bank of Canada

The Loonie Pair (USD/CAD) Is Likely To Remain Sidelined

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 02.03.2023 08:49
USD/CAD clings to mild gains after defying a bullish chart formation. Upbeat oscillators, sustained trading beyond previous resistance line keep buyers hopeful. 100-DMA appears the key support, Loonie buyers have multiple hurdles on the north. USD/CAD bulls struggle to keep the reins around the 1.3600 threshold during early Thursday in Europe. The Loonie pair’s latest grinds could be linked to the mixed technical signals witnessed on the Daily chart, as well as the market’s inaction. That said, the USD/CAD pair slipped beneath a two-week-old bullish channel’s lower line the previous day, which in turn suggested the quote’s declines towards the resistance-turned-support from mid-December 2022, close to 1.3550 by the press time. However, the 100-DMA level surrounding the 1.3500 threshold and multiple tops marked during late January, as well as early February, near 1.3470, could challenge the USD/CAD bears past 1.3550. Alternatively, the bullish MACD signals and upbeat RSI (14), not oversold, keeps USD/CAD buyers hopeful of bouncing back beyond the previous support line of the stated channel, near 1.3620. Following that, the tops marked in February and January, respectively around 1.3665 and 1.3685 will precede the December 16, 2022 swing high of 1.3705 to challenge the USD/CAD buyers. To sum up, USD/CAD is likely to remain sidelined between the previous support line surrounding 1.3550 and the immediate channel’s lower line of near 1.3620. USD/CAD: Daily chart Trend: Limited upside expected
The Indian Rupee Pair Takes Clues From The Receding Fears Of Hawkish Fed Rate Moves

USD/INR Pair Is Aiming To Extend Gains Further

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 02.03.2023 08:44
USD/INR has displayed a sheer recovery to near 82.60 as hawkish Fed bets have fueled US yields. A formation of an Ascending Triangle indicates volatility contraction with a bullish bias. The 50-period EMA at 82.30 is likely to provide a cushion to the US Dollar bulls. The USD/INR pair has picked strength after gauging significant buying interest around 82.35 in the Asian session. The asset has scaled sharply to 82.60 and is aiming to extend gains further as US Treasury yields are skyrocketing on expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will push borrowing rates above 5% by summer. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is gathering strength to deliver a break above the immediate resistance of 104.30. The 10-year US Treasury yields have printed a fresh three-month high at 4.03%. Meanwhile, S&P500 futures have extended their losses further, portraying a risk-aversion theme. USD/INR is forming an Ascending Triangle chart pattern on a daily scale that indicates volatility contraction with a bullish bias. The upward-sloping trendline of the chart pattern is placed from November 14 low at 80.48 while the horizontal resistance is plotted from October 19 high at 83.10. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 82.30 is likely to provide a cushion to the US Dollar bulls. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has slipped into the 40.00-60.00 range from the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, indicating a lackluster performance ahead.  A decisive break above March 01 high at around 82.62 will drive the asset toward February 28 high around 82.75 followed by February 27 high around 82.95. On the flip side, a confident break below March 1 low at 82.34 will drag the major toward the round-level support of 82.00 and January 17 high at 81.89. USD/INR daily chart  
The USD/JPY Price Reversed From The Lower Limit

Dovish Comments From The Incoming Bank Of Japan (Boj) Governor Kazuo Ueda Along With Signs Of Stability In The Equity Markets Weigh On JPY

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 01.03.2023 09:08
USD/JPY struggles to capitalize on a modest uptick on Wednesday and remains below the YTD top. The BoJ’s dovish outlook, weaker Japanese PMI undermine the JPY and continue to lend support. Hawkish Fed expectations, elevated US bond yields act as a tailwind for the USD and favour bulls. The USD/JPY pair edges higher following the previous day's two-way price swings and trades with a mild positive bias through the early European session. The pair is currently placed below mid-136.00s and remains well within the striking distance of its highest level since December 20 touched on Tuesday. A combination of factors undermines the Japanese Yen (JPY), which, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair amid the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar. Data released earlier this Wednesday showed that Japan's manufacturing sector remained in contraction territory in February. This comes on the back of dovish comments from the incoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda and Deputy Governor nominee Shinichi Uchida, stressing the need to maintain the ultra-loose monetary policy. This, along with signs of stability in the equity markets weigh on the safe-haven JPY. The USD, on the other hand, remains pinned near a multi-week high amid firming expectations for further policy tightening by the Fed and lends additional support to the USD/JPY pair. In fact, the markets now seem convinced that the US central bank will have to raise interest rates for longer to tame stubbornly high inflation. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and continues to act as a tailwind for the Greenback. That said, indications that the Fed's rate hikes were beginning to have their intended effect of cooling the economy seem to cap any meaningful gains for the buck. Investors remain worried about economic headwinds stemming from rapidly rising borrowing costs. The fears were fueled by Tuesday's disappointing release of the Conference Board's US Consumer Confidence Index, which fell to 102.9 in February from 106 in the previous month. Furthermore, the Chicago PMI business survey for February also came in weaker-than-expected and dropped to 43.6 in February, marking the sixth straight month in contraction territory. The Richmond Fed also released its survey of manufacturing activity for February and reported a decline to -16 from -11 in January 2023. The aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop is holding back traders from placing aggressive bets and keeping a lid on any meaningful gains for the USD/JPY pair, at least for the time being. Market participants now look to the US economic docket, featuring the release of ISM Manufacturing PMI later during the early North American session. This, along with the US bond yields, will influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to the USD/JPY pair. Apart from this, traders will take cues from the broader risk sentiment to grab short-term opportunities around the major.
The Commodities Feed: Specs continue to cut oil longs

Talks Of Higher Supplies From The OPEC+ Group Exert Downside Pressure On Crude Oil

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 01.03.2023 09:01
WTI crude oil rises for the second consecutive day, renews intraday high of late. Strong China PMI data bolster upbeat expectations from the world’s largest commodity user. Higher OPEC+ supplies, talks of more Russian Oil floating un-bid challenge WTI bulls. Fears of higher rates, inflation also keep a tab on energy benchmark ahead of US PMIs, official Oil inventories. WTI crude oil renews its intraday high around $77.60 during the initial hour of Wednesday’s European session. In doing so, the black gold marks another attempt to regain the $78.00 after the previous day’s pullback from a one-week high. That said, the energy benchmark’s previous pullback could be linked to the US Dollar’s run-up amid hawkish Fed bets, as well as inflation fears, while the fears of more Oil supplies joined the force to challenge the commodity bulls afterward. It’s worth mentioning that talks of higher supplies from the OPEC+ group, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, despite binding to the output cut commitments, exert downside pressure on the black gold price. On the same line could be the news shared via Bloomberg that says, “As many as 1.9 million barrels of Russian diesel-type fuel is currently in floating storage, the most since October 2020.” The news also mentioned that this phenomenon indicates some cargoes loaded from Russian ports without buyers. It should be noted, however, that the mixed US data and strong prints of China’s Caixin and NBS Manufacturing PMIs for February, as well as the Non-Manufacturing PMI for the said month, pushes back the hawkish Fed concerns and favor hopes of more demand from the world’s biggest commodity user. Looking ahead, the US S&P Global and ISM PMI details for February will be important for immediate directions ahead of the weekly official Oil inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Technical analysis A clear upside break of the 12-day-old descending trend line, previous resistance around $76.65, directs WTI crude oil buyers toward the 50-DMA hurdle of $78.00.
USD/CAD - Canadian economy added 41,400 jobs beating expectations

The USD/CAD Pair Is Likely To Register Further Downside

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 01.03.2023 08:58
USD/CAD takes offers to renew intraday low, reverses from “double top”. 100-HMA, two-week-old ascending trend line restrict immediate downside. RSI’s pullback from overbought territory, bearish MACD signals favor sellers. 200-HMA, 1.3530 act as crucial supports for Loonie pair bears to watch. USD/CAD welcomes March with a bearish bias as it renews its intraday low near 1.3620 during early Wednesday morning in Europe. That said, the Loonie pair marked the biggest daily gain in a week the previous day, as well as posted the heaviest monthly jump since September 2022 by the end of February. The quote’s latest pullback could be linked to its inability to cross the late February swing high of 1.3665. In doing so, the pair portrays the double top around 1.3660-65 region. The chart formation also takes clues from the bearish MACD signals to lure sellers. On the same line could be the RSI (14) pullback from the overbought territory. Hence, the USD/CAD pair is likely to register further downside. However, a convergence of the 100-Hour Moving Average (HMA) and an upward-sloping support line from mid-February, near 1.3580, appears a tough nut to crack for the bears. Also adding to the downside filter are the 200-HMA and the weekly low, respectively near 1.3540 and 1.3530. In a case where the USD/CAD drops below 1.3530 support, the pair confirms the bearish “double top” chart formation, which in turn suggests the theoretical fall towards 1.3400. Alternatively, a sustained break of the 1.3660-65 hurdle could aim for January’s peak of 1.3685 and the last December’s high near 1.3700 before allowing the USD/CAD bulls a free zone to rule. USD/CAD: Hourly chart Trend: Limited downside expected  
Australian dollar against US dollar decreased amid weak China CPI data

The Outlook For The AUD/USD Pair Looks Gloomy

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 01.03.2023 08:53
AUD/USD is struggling to extend recovery above 0.6760, upside looks favored amid the risk-on impulse. Federal Reserve might turn more hawkish if US ISM Manufacturing PMI delivers a surprise jump. A sense of relief has been observed by the Reserve Bank of Australia as inflation has softened significantly. AUD/USD looks failing to turn bullish despite a responsive buying move amid an Inverted Flag formation. AUD/USD has stretched its V-shape recovery move above to near the 0.6760 resistance in the early European session. The Aussie asset witnessed a sell-off in the Asian session after the release of the downbeat Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a sheer decline in the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI). The downside bias in the Australian Dollar faded after the release of the upbeat Caixin Manufacturing PMI data, which infused fresh blood into the Aussie and resulted in a V-shape recovery. S&P500 futures have turned positive after recovering significant losses posted in the Tokyo session, portraying a sheer recovery in the risk appetite theme. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has refreshed its day low below 104.47 as investors have ignored the uncertainty associated with hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets. Also, the safe-haven assets are struggling to find a cushion as investors have underpinned the risk-on mood. Contrary to the positive market sentiment, the return offered on the 10-year US Treasury bonds looks still solid around 3.94%. RBA senses relief as Australian Inflation softens and GDP trims Investors dumped the Australian Dollar in the Asian session after the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported significantly lower monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures than anticipation. The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Jan) dropped significantly to 7.4% from the expectations of 8.0% and the prior release of 8.4%. A mammoth decline in the inflation data is going to provide a big relief to Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policymakers. The Reserve Bank of Australia has been making efforts in bringing down inflationary pressures by the continuation of policy tightening. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe has already pushed its Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.35% in order to tame the stubborn inflation. And, more rates must be in pipeline to achieve price stability sooner. Apart from the monthly CPI, Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) has dropped to 0.5% from the consensus of 0.8% and Q3 figure of 0.6%. On an annualized basis, the GDP has remained in line with expectations at 2.7%. A decline in GDP numbers also showcases lower demand from households, which will trim inflation projections ahead as producers will be forced to scale down the prices of their offerings. Upbeat Caixin Manufacturing PMI strengthens the Australian Dollar It was widely anticipated that China’s manufacturing sector will outperform after the rollback of strict lockdown measures. Chinese administration and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) are dedicated to spurring economic recovery by improving domestic demand. The IHS Markit reported the Caixin Manufacturing PMI data at 51.6, higher than the expectations of 50.2 and the former release of 49.2. Apart from that, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Manufacturing PMI (Feb) landed higher at 52.6 vs. the consensus of 50.5 and the prior release of 50.1. The Services Manufacturing PMI exploded to 56.3 against 54.4 released in January while the street was anticipating a downbeat figure at 49.7. It is worth noting that Australia is the leading trading partner of China and a sharp recovery in the Chinese economy is also supportive of the Australian Dollar. ISM Manufacturing PMI- the next trigger for the US Dollar The street is awaiting the release of the United States Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI data. As per the consensus, the economic data is seen at 48.0 from the former release of 47.4. Apart from that, the New Orders Index that conveys forward demand is expected to rebound to 43.7 from the prior figure of 42.5. It is worth noting that the Manufacturing PMI is in a contraction phase consecutively for the past three months. A figure below 50.0 is considered as a contraction in the extent of activities. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to keenly watch the PMI figures as a surprise upside could strengthen the expectations of more hikes ahead. AUD/USD technical outlook Despite a responsive buying action near the round-level support of 0.6700, the outlook for AUD/USD looks gloomy as the asset is forming an Inverted Flag chart pattern. The chart pattern indicates a sheer consolidation that is followed by a breakdown. Usually, the consolidation phase of the chart pattern serves as an inventory adjustment in which those participants initiate shorts, which prefer to enter an auction after the establishment of a bearish bias. The 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 0.6760 is acting as a barricade for the Aussie bulls. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a consolidation ahead
Technical analysis of Silver by Alexandros Yfantis - May 5th

Silver Price Is Likely To Remain In Recovery Mode

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 01.03.2023 08:49
Silver price extends the previous day’s recovery from the lowest levels since early November 2022. Sustained break of 100-HMA, bullish MACD signals and ascending trend channel keep buyers hopeful. Overbought RSI conditions challenge XAG/USD run-up past $21.20 hurdle, 200-HMA act as additional upside filter. Silver price (XAG/USD) remains firmer around $21.10 as bulls extend the previous day’s rebound from the multi-day low during early Wednesday. In doing so, the bright metal marches with a two-day-old ascending trend channel while justifying the bullish MACD signals. However, the overbought conditions of the RSI (14) join multiple technical hurdles around $21.20 to challenge the metal’s further upside momentum. Among the key resistances, the February 17 swing low and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s February 22-28 fall gain major attention. Also challenging the buyers is the upper line of the stated bullish channel. Even if the XAG/USD rises past $21.20, the 200-Hour Moving Average (HMA) could challenge bullion buyers near $21.35. Following that, a north-run towards the late February swing high near $22.00 can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, a downside break of the 100-HMA, around $21.00 by the press time, could challenge the nearby bullish chart formation by poking the $20.90 support. Should the quote successfully defies the ascending trend channel, the previous monthly low near $20.40 and the $20.00 psychological magnet will gain the market’s attention. To sum up, the Silver price is likely to remain in recovery mode but the upside room appears limited. Silver price: Hourly chart Trend: Limited upside expected
The Indian Rupee Pair Takes Clues From The Receding Fears Of Hawkish Fed Rate Moves

The USD/INR Pair Is Prone To The Downside As The Risk-Of Impulse Has Faded

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 01.03.2023 08:46
USD/INR has turned volatile as investors are discounting India’s weak GDP numbers. India’s Q3 GDP has slipped lower to 4.4% from 6.3% and 13.5% figures recorded in Q2 and Q1 respectively. Upbeat Caixin Manufacturing PMI has improved investors’ risk appetite. The USD/INR pair has shown a recovery move after dropping firmly to near 82.35 in the Asian session. The asset is displaying volatility as investors are discounting overnight sell-off in the US Dollar Index (DXY). The major is prone to the downside as the risk-off impulse has faded after the release of the upbeat Caixin Manufacturing PMI data. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has sensed support after printing a day low at 104.47. The corrective move in the USD Index is the outcome of disappearing fears of more rates announcement from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Meanwhile, the alpha generated on the US government bonds looks still solid. At the press time, the 10-year US Treasury yields are hovering around 3.94%. S&P500 futures are on the verge of shrugging their entire losses reported in the Asian session, portraying a meaningful rebound in the risk appetite of the market participants. A power-pack performance is expected from the USD Index amid the release of the United States ISM Manufacturing PMI data. According to the preliminary estimates, the economic data is seen at 48.0 from the former release of 47.4. Apart from that, the New Orders Index that conveys forward demand is expected to rebound to 43.7 from the prior figure of 42.5. The Indian Rupee remained in action on Tuesday over the release of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q3 data. Restrictive monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in wake of achieving price stability has resulted in a slowdown in economic activities. The Q3 GDP has dropped to 4.4% in which crude oil output has dropped firmly by 1.1% on an annual basis. In the Q2 and Q1, GDP was measured at 6.3% and 13.5% respectively.  
Analysis Of The USD/IDR Pair By Economists At ING

The Indonesian Inflation Data And Strong China PMI Should Have Weighed On The USD/IDR Prices

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 01.03.2023 08:40
USD/IDR remains mildly bid for the second consecutive day despite upbeat Indonesia Inflation. Indonesia Inflation and Core Inflation both grew more than expected in February. Upbeat yields challenge US Dollar’s retreat after the biggest monthly gains since September 2022. US PMIs, risk catalysts eyed for immediate directions, Fed talks will be the key. USD/IDR struggles to justify strong Indonesia Inflation early Wednesday as it picks up bid to $15,560 during the two-day uptrend at the latest. The reason could be linked to the mixed sentiment in the markets as traders brace for the key March month. Indonesia's Inflation grew 5.47% YoY versus 5.44% expected and 5.28% prior but the MoM figures eased to 0.16% from 0.34% previous readings while crossing 0.11% market consensus. Further, Core Inflation dropped to 3.09% during the stated month versus 3.26% estimations and 3.27% prior. Apart from the Indonesian inflation data, strong China PMI also should have favored the market sentiment and weighed on the USD/IDR prices. However, anxiety ahead of the key data/events, as well as firmer US Treasury bond yields seems to propel the USD/IDR prices. That said, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI traces official activity data per NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI to mark a strong economic rebound in February. Even so, China Finance Minister Liu He said after the data release that the foundation of China's economic recovery is still not stable. Read next: Elon Musk Is Richest Man Again, The State Bank Of India Had Raised $1 Billion From Global Banks| FXMAG.COM Amid these plays, the S&P 500 Futures trace Wall Street’s mild losses around 3,960. Further, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose two basis points (bps) to 3.93% while the two-year counterpart rises four bps to 4.84% by the press time. With this, both the key bond coupons march towards the three-month high marked in February after printing the biggest monthly gain since September 2022. Looking ahead, US S&P Global and ISM PMIs for February could direct immediate moves but major attention will be given to the next week’s monthly jobs report, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting for clear directions. Technical analysis Despite the latest run-up, the USD/IDR bulls need validation from the 50-DMA, as well as an upward-sloping resistance line from the mid-January, respectively near $15,265 and $15,300, to push back the bearish bias.
SNB stands firm in the face of market turbulence with 50bp rate hike

The Market’s Fears Of Higher Inflation And Interest Rates Keep The USD/CHF Buyers Hopeful

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 01.03.2023 08:34
USD/CHF takes offers to renew intraday high even as risk-aversion prevails. US Dollar struggles to track upbeat yields amid strong China data, softer statistics at home. Downbeat  Swiss GDP, hawkish Fed bets favored buyers the previous day. USD/CHF renews its intraday low around 0.9410 as bulls take a breather following the strong February performance during early Wednesday. In doing so, the Swiss currency pair fails to justify the market’s mildly offbeat tone amid fears of higher rates and inflation. The reason could be linked to China as recent activity data from the world’s largest industrial player came in impressive for February. That said, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI traces official activity data per NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI to mark a strong economic rebound in February. Even so, China Finance Minister Liu He said after the data release that the foundation of China's economic recovery is still not stable. It should be noted that the month-start consolidation and the recently softer US data also seem to favor the USD/CHF bears. On Tuesday, the US Conference Board’s (CB) Consumer Confidence dropped for the second consecutive month to 102.9 versus 106.0 prior (revised) while US Housing Price Index drops 0.1% in December versus -0.6% market forecasts and -0.1% prior. On the same line, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices grew 4.6% YoY during the said month compared to 6.1% market expectations and 6.8% previous readings. Furthermore, Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index for February eased to 43.6 from 44.3 previous readings and 45.0 market consensus whereas the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for the said month eased below 11.0 prior and -5.0 expected to -16. Even so, the market’s fears of higher inflation and interest rates keep the USD/CHF buyers hopeful. While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures track Wall Street’s mild losses around 3,960. Further, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose two basis points (bps) to 3.93% while the two-year counterpart rises four bps to 4.84% by the press time. With this, both the key bond coupons march towards the three-month high marked in February after printing the biggest monthly gain since September 2022. Read next: Elon Musk Is Richest Man Again, The State Bank Of India Had Raised $1 Billion From Global Banks| FXMAG.COM Apart from the risk-off mood, downbeat data at home also could keep the USD/CHF buyers hopeful. Swiss Gross Domestic Product (GDP) arrived at 0% in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2022 vs. a growth of 0.3% and 0.2% recorded in the third quarter. Moving forward, Swiss Real Retail Sales for January can direct immediate USD/CHF moves ahead of US activity data for the said month. However, major attention will be given to the next week’s monthly jobs report, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting for clear directions. Technical analysis USD/CHF pullback remains elusive unless the quote drops back below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level surrounding 0.9385.
Australian dollar - the sharp drop can be attributed to technical factors and hawkish Fed

Downtrend Of The AUD/USD Pair Is Still Far From Being Over

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 28.02.2023 09:01
AUD/USD struggles to capitalize on its modest uptick amid renewed USD buying. Hawkish Fed expectations, elevated US bond yields help revive the USD demand. Recession fears offset the upbeat Australian Retail Sales and act as a headwind. The AUD/USD pair attracts some sellers following an uptick to mid-0.6700s and stalls a modest recovery from its lowest level since January touched the previous day. The pair retreats to the lower end of its daily range, around the 0.6730-0.6725 region during the early European session and is pressured by reviving US Dollar demand. The prospects for further policy tightening by the Fed remain supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and continue to act as a tailwind for the USD. In fact, the markets seem convinced that the US central bank will stick to its hawkish stance for longer in the wake of stubbornly high inflation. The bets were reaffirmed by the stronger US PCE Price Index released last Friday, which indicated that inflation isn't coming down quite as fast as hoped. Market participants, meanwhile, remain worried about economic headwinds stemming from rapidly rising borrowing costs. Apart from this, geopolitical tensions keep a lid on the overnight optimistic move in the equity markets, which further benefits the safe-have Greenback and contributes to capping the upside for the risk-sensitive Aussie. This overshadows better-than-expected Australian Retail Sales and does little to lend any support to the AUD/USD pair. In fact, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that Retail Sales grew by 1.9% in January against consensus estimates for a 1.5% rise and the 3.9% downfall recorded in the previous month. The AUD/USD pair's inability to gain any meaningful traction in reaction to the upbeat domestic data suggests that the downtrend witnessed since the beginning of this month is still far from being over. Bears, however, might wait for a sustained break below the 0.6700 mark. Traders now look to the US economic docket - featuring the release of regional manufacturing PMI and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index. This, along with the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment, might influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to the AUD/USD pair later during the early North American session. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside.
Uncertain Path Ahead: Will Silver Regain Historic Highs?

The Silver Price (XAG/USD) Remains Weak

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 28.02.2023 08:59
Silver price snaps four-day downtrend while bouncing off the lowest levels since early November 2022. Bearish MACD signals, sustained trading below 200-DMA keep sellers hopeful. Multiple hurdles stand tall to challenge XAG/USD buyers. Silver price (XAG/USD) clings to mild gains around $20.70 as bulls struggle to defend the first daily gains in five during early Tuesday. That said, the bright metal dropped to the lowest levels since November 2022 before bouncing off $20.56. The metal’s recovery could be linked to a U-turn from the three-month-old horizontal support. Despite the latest rebound, the XAG/USD remains on the seller’s radar as it stays below the 200-DMA amid bearish MACD signals. Even if the precious metal crosses the 200-DMA hurdle of $21.00, a downward-sloping resistance line from February 02, close to $21.25 by the press time, could challenge the Silver buyers afterward. It’s worth observing that the XAG/USD bears remain hopeful unless the quote stays below the $22.00-10 resistance area comprising multiple tops marked since the last November. On the contrary, a daily closing below the aforementioned three-month-old horizontal support near $20.50 will challenge an ascending support line from early September 2022, around $20.25 to please the Silver bears. It should be noted that the $20.00 psychological magnet acts as an extra filter toward the south. Overall, the Silver price remains weak unless breaking the $22.10 hurdle. The downside moves, however, appear to have limited room towards the south. Silver price: Daily chart Trend: Bearish
Central Banks and Inflation: Lessons from History and Current Realities

The Recently Agreed EU-UK Brexit Deal Also Seems To Tease The Sellers Of The GBP/JPY Cross-Currency Pair

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 28.02.2023 08:52
GBP/JPY holds lower ground near the intraday bottom, snaps two-day uptrend. Doubts over Brexit deal’s capacity to gain British Parliamentary approval probe the earlier hopes of overcoming month-long political deadlock. Yields grind higher amid month-end positioning mixed sentiment. Unimpressive Japan data, incoming BoJ policymakers’ defense of easy money policy keep buyers hopeful. GBP/JPY pares the monthly gain as it retreats from the seven-week high to 164.15 during early Tuesday. In addition to the month-end consolidation, receding optimism over the recently agreed EU-UK Brexit deal also seems to tease the sellers of the cross-currency pair. The initial agreement between UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen over Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) is yet to gain parliamentary approval and hence doubts about the same probe GBP/JPY buyers. On the same line is the news shared by BBC News saying, the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has said he and his colleagues will take their time to examine the new Brexit deal for Northern Ireland. Daily Express news also challenges the Brexit optimism by saying, “Boris Johnson has privately urged the DUP to be cautious about backing Rishi Sunak's Brexit deal.” Alternatively, odds favoring the continued existence of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) easy money policy challenge the GBP/JPY bears. That said, the incoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida testified before the Japanese parliament’s Upper House while defending the central bank’s easy money policy. In doing so, Uchida rules out hopes of altering the 2.0% inflation target, as well as hopes of bolstering the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy. Earlier in the day, BoJ Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe said, “Central banks must remain on guard against the potential dangers of secular stagnation and low inflation as price rises driven by cost-push factors do not last long,” per Reuters. It should be noted that the mixed Japan data and yields fail to offer clear directions to the pair traders. That said, Japan’s Industrial Production shrunk 4.6% in January versus -2.6% expected and 0.3% prior growth. However, the Retail Trade grew 1.9% MoM on a seasonally adjusted basis from 1.1% prior and -0.2% market forecasts. Against this backdrop, the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields regain upside momentum around 3.93% and 4.80% respectively, despite being lackluster of late. Further, the S&P 500 Futures also trace Wall Street’s gains by the press time. Looking ahead, Brexit headlines and BoJ updates are key to watch for the GBP/JPY pair traders for clear directions. Technical analysis The monthly bullish channel keeps GBP/JPY buyers hopeful even as the overbought RSI hints at a pullback toward the 200-DMA support of 163.40.
RBNZ preview: Fiscal spending argues for a hawkish 25bp hike

Bearish Bets For The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Are Escalating

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 28.02.2023 08:50
NZD/USD is exposed to 0.6130 after retreating from 0.6180 as the risk-on mood has faded. The 10-year US Treasury yields have jumped above 3.93% amid rising fears of more rates by the Fed. Investors are expecting an increase in the Caixin Manufacturing PMI to 50.2. The NZD/USD pair delivered a downside break of the sideways auction formed in a range of 0.6160-0.6182 in the Asian session. The Kiwi asset has now slipped further and is declining towards 0.6130 in the early European session as the risk-on profile has retreated after a recovery move. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has extended its revival move to near 104.50 as galloping consumer spending from households in the United States economy is bolstering the case of continuation of policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed). S&P500 futures have surrendered their entire gains added in the Asian session, portraying a sheer recovery in the risk aversion theme. Also, the 10-year US Treasury yields have jumped above 3.93%. Bearish bets for the New Zealand Dollar are escalating as investors are getting anxious ahead of the release of the Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb) data, which will release on Wednesday. Investors are expecting an increase in the PMI figures to 50.2 from the former release of 49.2. The reopening of the Chinese economy with a promising economic outlook due to fiscal stimulus has backed bullish bets for the Caixin PMI data. It is worth noting that New Zealand is one of the leading trading partners of China and higher manufacturing activities will also strengthen the New Zealand Dollar. Inflationary pressures in the New Zealand economy could decelerate ahead as retail demand has dropped firmly. The Retail Sales data for the fourth quarter of CY2022 has contracted by 0.6% while the street was expecting an expansion of 1.5%. This might provide some relief to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
InstaForex's Ralph Shedler talks Euro against Japanese yen

The USD/JPY Pair Bulls Seem To Run Out Of Steam

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 28.02.2023 08:47
USD/JPY remains sidelined, fails to extend week-start pullback from two-month high. Impending bear cross on MACD, bearish chart formation challenges Yen pair buyers. 50-SMA adds strength to the 135.00 support holding the door for sellers. USD/JPY seesaws near 136.30-40 during the initial hours of Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the Yen pair fails to extend the previous day’s U-turn from the two-month high while staying inside a three-week-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern. In addition to the rising wedge and lackluster moves, the impending bear cross on the MACD also keeps USD/JPY sellers hopeful unless the quote defies the bearish chart pattern. For that, the Yen pair needs to remain successfully beyond the 136.90 immediate hurdle, as well as cross the 137.00 round figure. It’s worth observing that the mid-December 2022 high near 138.20 acts as the last defense of the USD/JPY bears, a break of which could quickly propel the prices towards the 140.00 psychological magnet. Meanwhile, a convergence of the 50-SMA and the aforementioned wedge’s bottom line highlights the 135.00 round figure as the short-term key support. Should the USD/JPY bears keep the reins below the 135.00 support confluence, the early month high near 133.00 may probe sellers during the theoretical south run targeting the monthly low of near 128.00. Overall, USD/JPY bulls seem to run out of steam after posting the biggest monthly jump in four months. Though, bears are far from entry unless the quote stays beyond 135.00. USD/JPY: Four-hour chart Trend: Limited upside expected
USD/CAD - Canadian economy added 41,400 jobs beating expectations

The Loonie Pair (USD/CAD) Remains On The Bull’s Radar

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 28.02.2023 08:37
USD/CAD picks up bids to reverse the week-start pullback from monthly top. Cautious optimism underpins WTI rebound amid sluggish session. US Dollar remains on the way to posting the first monthly gain in five amid hawkish Fed concerns. Canada's Q4 GDP could help Loonie pair buyers on matching downbeat forecasts. USD/CAD prints a gradual rebound from intraday low amid a sluggish end to February, picking up bids to 1.3585 heading into Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the Loonie pair fails to justify the recent rebound in Canada’s key export item, namely WTI crude oil, as traders brace for the fourth quarter (Q4) Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. That said, the WTI crude oil bulls attack $76.00 while the refreshing intraday top, as well as reversing the previous day’s pullback from a one-week high. It should be noted that he hopes of easing US-China tension and hopes of upbeat inflation, as well as manufacturing activity in China, add strength to the black gold’s latest rebound. On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) prints mild gains around 104.80, following a downbeat start of the week, as greenback bulls cheer hawkish Fed bets despite mixed US data amid an unimpressive day so far. Talking about the risk catalysts, market sentiment improves on headlines suggesting the fact that the US offers an olive branch to Chinese companies despite its political differences with the dragon nation. “Despite fraying relations with Beijing, US President Joe Biden is expected to forego expansive new restrictions on American investment in China, denying a push by some hawks in his administration and Congress,” reported Politico late Monday. However, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s comments on China suggest that the political tussle among the world’s top two economies stays on the table. “China’s stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine puts it in an “awkward” position internationally and any weapons support to Russia would come with ‘real costs,’” said US Security Adviser Sullivan on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Monday. That said, mixed US data jostled with the hawkish Fed speak and the US-China tension contributed to the lack of market clarity. That said, US Durable Goods Orders slumped -4.5% in January versus -4.0% expected and 5.1% prior. However, the Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft grew 0.8% versus 0.0% analysts’ expectations and -0.3% previous readings. On the same line, the US Pending Home Sales rallied 8.0% MoM versus 1.0% expected and 1.1% prior. At home, Canada’s Q4 Current Account Deficit grew to -10.64B versus -8.41B. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains around 3,995, extending the week-start rebound from the monthly low, whereas the US two-year Treasury yields remain sidelined near 4.79% after reversing from a three-month high on Monday. That said, the US 10-year Treasury bond coupons seek clear directions near 3.92% following a downbeat start of the week. Looking ahead, Canada’s Q4 GDP Annualized, expected to ease to 1.5% versus 2.9% prior, could keep the USD/CAD buyers hopeful. Also important to watch will be the second-tier US data, namely Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence, Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for February, as well as the preliminary US trade numbers for January. Technical analysis Unless dropping back below the previous resistance line from early November, around 1.3570 by the press time, USD/CAD remains on the bull’s radar.
The Indian Rupee Pair Takes Clues From The Receding Fears Of Hawkish Fed Rate Moves

The Indian Rupee Will Display A Power-Pack Action After The Release Of The Q3 GDP Data

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 28.02.2023 08:32
USD/INR has shifted its range below 82.70 amid an overnight correction in the USD Index. The Indian Rupee will display a power-pack action after the release of the Q3 GDP data. S&P500 futures have further added gains after a modest positive Monday, portraying ease in the risk-off mood. The USD/INR pair has shifted its business below 82.70 in the Asian session led by an overnight sell-off in the US Dollar Index (DXY). The asset has slipped as investors have ignored clouds of uncertainty associated with accelerating consumer spending in the United States amid an upbeat labor market. US tight labor market has shifted the bargaining power in the favor of job seekers from the hiring agencies amid a shortage of labor. This has flushed significant liquidity in the palms of households for disposal, which is fueling retail demand efficiently. No doubt, the fears of more rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) are skyrocketing. But for now, the risk-off profile has eased gradually. S&P500 futures have further added gains after a modest positive Monday session, portraying an improvement in the risk appetite of the market participants. The alpha generated on 10-year US treasury bonds has turned lackluster around 3.92%. Meanwhile, the Indian Rupee will display a power-pack action after the release of the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for FY2022-23. The Indian economy showed double-digit growth in Q1 as helicopter money released by the Indian administration and expansionary monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was spurting overall growth. In the second quarter, GDP started moderating and trimmed to 6.3% as the administration started contracting liquidity to bring down galloping inflation. The RBI projected the real GDP growth for 2022-23 at 6.8% and for the third quarter at 4.4%. On the oil front, the oil price has recovered to near $75.80 as the economy is betting on China’s reopening after a prolonged lockdown to contain the pandemic. It is worth noting that India is one of the leading importers of oil in the world and higher oil prices can impact the Indian rupee.  
Analysis Of The USD/CNH Pair By Economist Lee Sue Ann And Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang At UOB Group

Analysis Of The USD/CNH Pair By Economist Lee Sue Ann And Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang At UOB Group

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 27.02.2023 10:12
According to Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group, the continuation of the upside bias could encourage USD/CNH to retest the 7.0000 region ahead of 7.0200 in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Last Friday, we indicated that ‘as long as 6.8900 is not breached, USD could rise to 6.9300 before the risk of a more sustained pullback increases’. While USD did not break 6.8900 (low has been 6.9118), the anticipated USD strength exceeded our expectations by a wide margin as USD rocketed to a high of 6.9820. Further USD strength is not ruled out but deeply overbought conditions suggest the major resistance at 7.0000 is unlikely to come into view today. Support is at 6.9650, followed by 6.9550.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We have expected USD to move higher since the start of the month. In our most recent narrative from last Friday (24 Feb, spot at 6.9160), we indicated that USD ‘has to break above 6.9300 within the next 1-2 days or the risk of an end to the USD strength will increase quickly’. Our view was not wrong even though we did not quite expect the manner in which USD blew past 6.9300 and surged to a high of 6.9820. The boost in upward momentum is likely to lead to further USD strength. The resistance levels to watch are at 7.0000 and 7.0200. The upside risk is intact as long as USD stays above 6.9220 (‘strong support’ level previously at 6.8700).”
Technical analysis of Silver by Alexandros Yfantis - May 5th

The Silver Could Eventually Drop To The $19.75-$19.70

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 27.02.2023 10:00
Silver continues losing ground for the fourth straight day and refreshes the YTD low on Monday. Oversold oscillators on the daily chart help the XAG/USD to find support near the 61.8% Fibo. The setup still favours bearish traders and supports prospects for a further depreciating move. Silver remains under some selling pressure for the fourth successive day and drops to a fresh YTD low during the first half of trading on Monday. The white metal currently trades just above the mid-$20.00s and seems vulnerable to prolonging the recent downfall witnessed since the beginning of this month. Friday's convincing break and acceptance below a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) adds credence to the negative outlook. That said, oscillators on the daily chart are flashing extremely oversold conditions, making it prudent to wait for some consolidation or a modest rebound before positioning for further losses. Read next: Pfizer Is In The Early Stages Of An Acquisition Of Biotech Company Seagen, Twitter's Staff Has Shrunk Since Elon Musk Took Over| FXMAG.COM Any attempted recovery, however, is more likely to meet with a fresh supply near the $21.00 mark. This, in turn, should cap the XAG/USD near the $21.30-$21.35 region, marking the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from October 2022. The latter should act as a pivotal point, which if cleared could prompt some near-term short-covering. Bearish traders, meanwhile, take a breather near the 61.8% Fibo. level, below which the XAG/USD could accelerate the fall towards challenging the $20.00 psychological mark. The white metal could eventually drop to the $19.75-$19.70 intermediate support en route to the $19.15 horizontal zone and the $19.00 round-figure mark. Silver daily chart  
USD/CAD - Canadian economy added 41,400 jobs beating expectations

The Path Of Least Resistance For The USD/CAD Pair Is To The Upside

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 27.02.2023 09:54
USD/CAD attracts some dip-buying on Monday and draws support from a combination of factors. Sliding Oil prices undermines the Loonie and acts as a tailwind for the pair amid a stronger USD. The fundamental backdrop favours bullish traders and supports prospects for a further move up.  The USD/CAD pair attracts some buying following an intraday dip to sub-1.3600 levels on Monday and hits a fresh daily high during the early European session. The pair is currently placed around the 1.3625 region, though remains below its highest level since January 6 touched on Friday. Crude Oil prices meet with a fresh supply on the first day of a new week, which is seen undermining the commodity-linked Loonie and lending support to the USD/CAD pair. Worries that rapidly rising borrowing costs will dampen economic growth and dent fuel demand overshadow the prospect of lower exports from Russia. This, in turn, fails to assist Oil prices to build on a two-day-old recovery move from a nearly three-week low touched last Thursday. Apart from this, bets that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will pause the policy-tightening cycle, bolstered by softer Canadian consumer inflation figures released last week, weighs on the domestic currency. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected to stick to its hawkish stance in the wake of stubbornly high inflation. This, along with a softer risk tone, keeps the safe-haven US Dollar pinned near a multi-week high and acts as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. The prospects for further policy tightening by the Fed were reaffirmed by the stronger US PCE data on Friday, which indicated that inflation isn't coming down quite as fast as hoped. Adding to this, the incoming positive US macro data points to an economy that remains resilient despite rising borrowing costs and fueled hawkish Fed expectations. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and continues to boost the Greenback. Read next: Pfizer Is In The Early Stages Of An Acquisition Of Biotech Company Seagen, Twitter's Staff Has Shrunk Since Elon Musk Took Over| FXMAG.COM The aforementioned fundamental backdrop seems tilted firmly in favour of bulls and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD pair is to the upside. Further, the technical picture also indicates a bullish continuation pattern may has formed after Friday's strong up day, which also helped to confirm the major trendline break of the previous two sessions. This continuation pattern could see prices rise up to the 1.3800 level conditional on confirmation from a break above Friday's high at 1.3665.  Market participants now look to the US economic docket, featuring the release of Durable Goods Orders and Pending Home Sales data. This, along with Oil price dynamics, should provide a fresh impetus to the USD/CAD pair and allow traders to grab short-term opportunities.
New Zealand dollar against US dollar decreased by 1.07% yesterday

The NZD/USD Pair Maintains At The Lowest Levels

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 27.02.2023 08:41
NZD/USD drops to the lowest levels in three months, grinds near intraday low of late. Downbeat NZ Retail Sales, comments from RBNZ’s Conway keep bears hopeful. US Dollar cheers strong inflation clues, hawkish Fed talks amid upbeat yields. US Durable Goods Orders, risk catalysts eyed for fresh impulse. NZD/USD bears keep the reins at the lowest levels since November 2022, down half a percent near 0.6130 during early Monday, as downbeat New Zealand (NZ) catalysts contrast with the US Dollar demand. That said, NZ Retail Sales marked -0.6% QoQ figure for the fourth quarter (Q4) earlier in the day, versus 1.5% expected and 0.4% prior. On the other hand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway said, “As interest rates rise, I expect consumption to slow.” Meanwhile, strong US inflation-linked data joined the Fed policymakers’ support for higher rates to propel the Fed fund futures to above 5.30%, versus 5.10% expected by the US central bank in December. The same joins the latest bout of sanctions on Russia from the West to escalate the market’s fears of more geopolitical tension, which in turn underpins the US Dollar’s haven demand. US Dollar Index (DXY) renews its intraday high around 105.32 following the initial pullback from a seven-week high, while tracing upbeat US Treasury bond yields. It’s worth noti Read next: The Effect Of Shifting The Aggregate Demand Curve - Demand Shocks| FXMAG.COM ng, US 10-year Treasury yields reverse the early-day losses to around 3.95%. Further, the two-year counterparts jump back towards the highest levels since November 2022, marked the previous day, as bond bears poke the 4.83% level by the press time. Further, the S&P 500 Futures lick its wounds with mild gains after the Wall Street benchmark posted the biggest weekly slump of 2023.   Moving ahead, the US Durable Goods Orders for January, expected -4.0% versus 5.6% prior, will be important to watch for clear directions ahead of Wednesday’s official activity data from China. Technical analysis A daily closing below the 200-DMA, around 0.6170 by the press time, directs NZD/USD bears towards July 2022 low near 0.6060.
Central Banks and Inflation: Lessons from History and Current Realities

The GBP/JPY Cross-Currency Pair Has Potential For Further Downside Movement

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 27.02.2023 08:39
GBP/JPY takes offers to extend pullback from one-week-old horizontal resistance. Looming bear cross on MACD, RSI retreat add strength to downside bias. 50-SMA restricts immediate downside, bulls need validation from monthly high. GBP/JPY prints mild losses around 162.75-80 as it pares the previous day’s gains around the intraday low heading into Monday’s London open. In doing so, the cross-currency pair justifies the early-day Doji candlestick formation, as well as the U-turn from a one-week-old horizontal resistance line. Adding strength to the downside bias is the RSI (14) retreat from the +50.0 area, often considered an overbought zone, as well as the looming bear cross on the MACD. That said, the GBP/JPY bears are well-set to visit the 50-SMA support near 162.00. Following that, a two-week-old ascending support line precedes an upward-sloping trend line from February 03 to challenge the GBP/JPY bears around 161.45 and 161.20 in that order. It should be noted that the pair’s weakness past 161.20 will have the 161.00 round figure as the last defense, a break of which could make it vulnerable to challenge the mid-month swing low surrounding 160.00. On the contrary, recovery moves remain elusive below the immediate resistance line, around 163.25 by the press time. Following that, the monthly high of 163.76 may act as an extra filter towards the north. If the GBP/JPY bulls keep the reins past 163.76, the early December 2022 low near 164.00 will be in the spotlight ahead of directing the quote towards the last September’s peak of 167.22. GBP/JPY: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected
Australian dollar against US dollar - "It seems that the currency will soon hit a price above 0.68"

More Downside In The Aussie Pair (AUD/USD) Looks Favored

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 27.02.2023 08:35
AUD/USD has refreshed its seven-week low at 0.6700 amid geopolitical tensions and rising hawkish Fed bets. The USD Index has refreshed its day’s high above 104.90 and is expected to recapture the 105.00 resistance. A higher-than-projected Australia GDP will accelerate troubles for the RBA. The AUD/USD pair has refreshed its seven-week low near the round-level support of 0.6700. More downside in the Aussie asset looks favored as investors are channelizing their funds into the US Dollar Index (DXY). Investors are favoring investment in the USD Index to dodge volatility inspired by a revival in consumer spending in the United States and escalating geopolitical tensions. The USD Index has refreshed its day’s high above 104.90 and is expected to recapture the 105.00 resistance. Western nations are still concerned about the rumors of China’s support to Russia in providing arms and ammunition against Ukraine. United States National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on CNN’s “State of the Union,” China’s stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine puts it in an “awkward” position internationally and any weapons support to Russia would come with “real costs.” Risk-perceived assets like S&P500 futures are facing heat of the geopolitical tensions. The 500-stocks futures basket has surrendered the majority of gains earned in morning, portraying further strengthening of the risk-aversion theme. Meanwhile, the return generated on 10-year US Treasury yields is hovering around 3.94%. Higher-than-projected US consumer spending in January has highlighted the fact that the battle between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the sticky inflation is getting brawled further. Fed chair Jerome Powell has been left with no other option than to tap hawkish measures to bring down the stubborn inflation. Read next: The Effect Of Shifting The Aggregate Demand Curve - Demand Shocks| FXMAG.COM On the Australia front, recession fears are escalating as inflation is not showing signs of deceleration, which is bolstering the case of further policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). This week, Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) numbers will be keenly watched. The quarter GDP is seen higher at 0.9% vs. the former release of 0.6%. This might create more troubles for RBA Governor Philip Lowe as higher activities will favor further hikes.  
InstaForex's Ralph Shedler talks Euro against Japanese yen

Dovish Commentary From Bank Of JapanGove rnor Nominee Kazuo Ueda Is Impacting The Japanese Yen

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 27.02.2023 08:33
BoJ Ueda sees the current monetary policy as appropriate to achieve the 2% inflation target confidently. USD/JPY has delivered a breakout of the Inverted H&S pattern that conveys a bullish reversal. An oscillating in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00 by the RSI (14) indicates more upside ahead. The USD/JPY pair is struggling to extend recovery above the immediate resistance of 136.40 in the early European session. The asset has turned sideways as investors are awaiting the release of the United States Durable Goods Orders data for fresh cues. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has faced barricades around 104.90 but is expected to continue its upside to near the 105.00 resistance as investors’ risk appetite has faded dramatically. Meanwhile, dovish commentary from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Nominee Kazuo Ueda is impacting the Japanese Yen. BoJ Ueda sees the current monetary policy as appropriate to achieve the 2% inflation target confidently. USD/JPY has delivered a breakout of the Inverted Head and Shoulder chart pattern on a four-hour scale that conveys a bullish reversal after a prolonged consolidation. The impulse of the asset has turned bullish after a confident break above the horizontal resistance plotted from December 28 high at 134.50. The US Dollar bulls are getting strength from the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 134.60. An oscillating in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00 by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) indicates a continuation of the upside. Read next: The Effect Of Shifting The Aggregate Demand Curve - Demand Shocks| FXMAG.COM Should the asset break above the intraday high at 136.56, US Dollar bulls will drive the asset toward December 12 high at 137.48 followed by the horizontal resistance placed from December 15 high at 138.18. Alternatively, a confident break below February 16 low at 133.60 will negate the Inverted H&S formation and will drag the asset toward February 6 high around 133.00 and February 10 high at 131.65. USD/JPY four-hour chart  
The USD/MXN Pair Could Then Aim To Surpass The February Monthly Swing High

The USD/MXN Pair Seesaws Around The Intraday High

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 27.02.2023 08:28
USD/MXN retreats from intraday high, fails to extend the previous week’s rebound from the lowest levels since April 2018. US Dollar struggles for clear directions after posting the heaviest run-up since September 2022 amid hawkish Fed concerns. Mixed risk catalysts, sluggish bond markets keep Mexican Peso illiquid ahead of US Durable Goods Orders. USD/MXN aptly portrays the market’s inaction during early Monday as the Mexican Peso (MXN) pair seesaws around $18.40, after bouncing off the lowest levels in nearly five years. In doing so, the USD/MXN pair seesaws around the intraday high as the US Dollar seeks the next catalyst to extend the previous week’s run-up. It should be noted that the upbeat US data, mainly surrounding inflation, joined hawkish Fed talks and upbeat Treasury bond yields to underpin the US Dollar’s biggest weekly run-up since September 2022 the last week. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) renews its intraday high around 105.30 following the initial pullback from a seven-week high. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies remains firmer for the fifth consecutive day. Mixed concerns surrounding Russia and mildly offered Oil price seems to challenge the USD/MXN traders amid a light calendar ahead of the US Durable Goods Orders for January, expected -4.0% versus 5.6% prior. Adding strength to the market’s inaction are the dicey US Treasury bond yields. While tracing the same, the US 10-year Treasury yields reverse the early-day losses to around 3.95%. Further, the two-year counterparts jump back towards the highest levels since November 2022, marked the previous day, as bond bears poke the 4.83% level by the press time. Against this backdrop, t the S&P 500 Futures lick its wounds with mild gains after the Wall Street benchmark posted the biggest weekly slump of 2023. At home, hawkish concerns after Banxico’s latest 0.50% rate hike keep the USD/MXN bears hopeful. Moving on, US PMIs for February and second-tier data from Mexico will entertain USD/MXN traders amid an anticipated corrective bounce. Technical analysis Thursday’s Doji near multi-month low joins oversold RSI (14) to suggest corrective bounce in the USD/MXN prices. However, buyers remain off the table unless witnessing sustained trading beyond January’s low surrounding $18.56.
The USD/INR Pair Traders Could Be The Cautious Mood Ahead Of The Key Inflation Numbers For India And The US

The USD/INR Pair Portrays The Traders’ Anxiety Ahead Of The Key Q3 GDP Of India

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 27.02.2023 08:24
USD/INR struggles for clear directions after five-week uptrend, grinds higher of late. Hawkish Fed concerns, upbeat US Treasury bond yields underpin US Dollar strength. RBI’s hawkish mood contrasts with fears of easy growth figures to weigh on Indian Rupee. US data, risk catalysts eyed for clear directions past India Q3 GDP. USD/INR seesaws around 82.90 as bulls take a breather following a five-week winning streak during early Monday. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair portrays the traders’ anxiety ahead of the key third quarter (Q3) Indian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the Fiscal Year 2023 (FY2023). Despite the pre-data anxiety, the hopes of softer FY2023 Q3 GDP figures, 4.6% versus 6.3% prior, join the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) concerns to keep USD/INR buyers hopeful. That said, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) readiness to tame inflation, even at the cost of higher rates, seems to challenge the Indian Rupee bears. Even so, the strong US inflation clues join geopolitical fears surrounding China and Russia, as well as hawkish Fed concerns, to keep the USD/INR buyers hopeful. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) makes rounds to its intraday high of around 105.30 following the initial pullback from a seven-week high. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies remains firmer for the fifth consecutive day. It’s worth observing that market bets for the Fed fund futures hint at the 5.30% interest rate for late 2023, versus the US central bank’s forecast of a near 5.10% peak rate. Against this backdrop, the US 10-year Treasury yields reverse the early-day losses of around 3.95%. Further, the two-year counterparts jump back towards the highest levels since November 2022, marked the previous day, as bond bears poke the 4.83% level by the press time. Further, the S&P 500 Futures lick its wounds with mild gains after the Wall Street benchmark posted the biggest weekly slump of 2023. Looking forward, a light calendar on Monday and the pre-data anxiety may restrict USD/INR moves. Technical analysis A three-week-old rising wedge chart formation suggests a short-term upward grind of the USD/INR prices between 83.25 and 82.65.
Technical analysis of Silver by Alexandros Yfantis - May 5th

Silver Seems Poised To Weaken Further Below The $21.00 Mark

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 24.02.2023 08:55
Silver is seen consolidating this week’s downfall back closer to the YTD low. The setup favours bearish traders and supports prospects for further losses. A sustained move beyond the $22.00 barrier could negate the bearish bias. Silver enters a bearish consolidation phase on Friday and oscillates in a narrow trading band through the early European session. The white metal is currently placed around the $21.30-$21.25 area, just above the YTD low touched last week, and seems vulnerable to slide further. The XAG/USD now seems to have found acceptance below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally from October 2022. This comes on the back of this week's repeated failures near the $22.00 mark, or the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), and could be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. That said, Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is flashing slightly oversold conditions and warrants some caution. This makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest bounce before placing fresh bearish bets around the XAG/USD positioning for any further depreciating move. Nevertheless, the XAG/USD seems poised to weaken further below the $21.00 mark (200-day SMA) and accelerate the fall towards the next relevant support near the $20.60 zone. The downward trajectory could get extended further towards the $20.00 psychological mark en route to the $19.75-$19.70 region. On the flip side, the $21.55-$21.60 region now seems to act as an immediate hurdle. Any subsequent move-up might continue to attract fresh sellers near the $22.00 mark. The said handle is closely followed by the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the $22.15 zone, which should now act as a key pivotal point. A sustained strength beyond could trigger a short-covering rally and lift the XAG/USD towards the $22.55-$22.60 supply zone. Bulls might eventually aim to reclaim the $23.00 round-figure mark, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibo. level. Silver daily chart  
USD/CAD - Canadian economy added 41,400 jobs beating expectations

The USD/CAD Pair Traders May Witness Lackluster Moves Ahead

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 24.02.2023 08:51
USD/CAD picks up bids to pare day-start losses, reverses the previous day’s pullback from seven-week high. Oil price cheers hopes of economic recovery, geopolitical tension amid sluggish session. Talks surrounding Fed concerns join mixed moves of bond market to probe Loonie traders. USD/CAD grinds near intraday high as it reverses the day-start losses, as well as dialing back the previous day’s u-turn from a seven-week high, around 1.3545, heading into Friday’s European session. In doing so, the Loonie pair fails to justify the firmer prices of Canada’s main export item, namely WTI crude oil. That said, the black gold rises 0.65% intraday to $76.15 by the press time, extending the previous day’s rebound from the two-week low. While tracing the reasons, the recently firmer statistics from the US and Europe, as well as other major economies, join China’s readiness to infuse the economy towards more output to propel Oil prices. Additionally favoring the WTI bulls are the news suggesting more geopolitical tensions surrounding Russia and Ukraine, as well as the Sino-American tussles. Elsewhere, the US Dollar Index (DXY) snaps a three-day uptrend as it grinds near 104.55 while DXY bulls struggle for clear directions after refreshing a seven-week high the previous day. The US Dollar’s latest weakness could be linked to the dicey markets as the market’s fears that the strong US data and further Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes are already priced in. The same seemed to have weighed on the US Treasury bond yields. On the same line could be the mixed headlines surrounding China, due to its peace plan for Ukraine and ties with Russia, as well as due to the US-China readiness for trade talks, despite not sharing the details and criticizing each other on various issues. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 Futures fade recovery moves from the monthly low by retreating to 4,015, down 0.10% intraday at the latest. Further, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields seesaw around 3.86%, making it less active on the day, whereas the US two-year bond coupons stay inactive near 4.69% by the press time. Given the dicey markets and cautious mood ahead of the key US data, namely the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for January, the USD/CAD pair traders may witness lackluster moves ahead. However, hawkish hopes from the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge may not hesitate from disappointing the Loonie pair buyers if printing downbeat numbers. Also read: US PCE Inflation Preview: Can the US Dollar turn bullish for good? Technical analysis Although Thursday’s bearish spinning top lures the USD/CAD sellers, the nearness to the 100-DMA support of 1.3510 and bullish MACD signals suggest limited downside room for the pair
Bank of England is expected to hike the rate by 25bp. Kelvin Wong talks Euro against British pound

The EUR/GBP Cross Pair Is Expected Further Downside Movement

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 24.02.2023 08:46
EUR/GBP retreats from intraday high, snaps two-day rebound from monthly low. One-week-old resistance line, key Fibonacci retracement level challenge immediate upside. 0.8840 appears a tough nut to crack for the EUR/GBP bulls. Multiple levels surrounding 0.8760 can probe bears afterward. EUR/GBP bears return to the table, after a two-day absence, as the quote eases from the intraday high to 0.8815 during the initial hour of Friday’s European session. In doing so, the cross-currency pair fades bounce off the lowest levels since January 31 while retreating from the convergence of the one-week-long descending trend line and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of January 19 to February 03 upside, close to 0.8820 at the latest. Adding strength to the pullback moves is the sluggish RSI (14) near the 50 levels, as well as the pair’s previous downside break of the support lines from late January. As a result, the EUR/GBP bears are all set to revisit the latest trough surrounding 0.8780. However, multiple levels marked during late January could challenge the pair sellers near 0.8760 then after. Should the quote remains weak past 0.8760, the odds of witnessing a fresh low of the year 2023, currently around 0.8720 can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, a successful break of the 0.8820 resistance confluence isn’t an open welcome to the EUR/GBP bulls as the previous support line from January 30, around 0.8830 by the press time, could challenge the upside moves. It’s worth noting that the support-turned-resistance from January 19 joins the 200-Simple Moving Average (SMA) to highlight the 0.8840 as the key upside hurdle. EUR/GBP: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected
InstaForex's Ralph Shedler talks Euro against Japanese yen

Bank Of Japan Ueda Cited The Current Policy Easing As Appropriate To Achieve Pre-Pandemic Growth

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 24.02.2023 08:42
USD/JPY is showing a volatility squeeze after some wild moves post-speech from BoJ Governor Nominee Kazuo Ueda. Bank of Japan Ueda considered the current monetary policy as appropriate for achieving the persistent 2% inflation target. Federal Reserve to continue policy tightening spell as upbeat US labor market could propel inflation ahead. USD/JPY is auctioning in a Rising Wedge which indicates a loss in the upside momentum and cements a bearish reversal. USD/JPY remained in vigorous action in the Asian session as Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Nominee Kazuo Ueda delivered his first speech after his selection. The asset displayed wild gyrations in the 70-pips range and returned to its mean. The major has turned sideways as a volatility expansion is generally followed by a contraction in the same. At the time of writing, the pair is demonstrating a back-and-forth action around 134.70 and is expected to continue to remain sideways till the release of the United States Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for fresh impetus. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling to find a decisive move as investors have shifted to the sidelines ahead of the US PCE data. S&P500 futures have turned volatile amid dubious gestures from the Chinese government toward the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. The war situation between Russia and Ukraine has entered in the second year and the street is expecting some bold moves from Russia, which could accelerate geopolitical tensions further. Earlier, the United States and Germany warned Beijing not to deliver weapons to Russia, as reported by DER SPIEGEL. The warning from the US and Germany came after the headlines of negotiations between China and Russia for the purchase of 100 strike drones by Moscow. Bank of Japan Ueda cites current monetary policy as appropriate The street was keenly awaiting the speech from BoJ Ueda as the Japanese administration promised that the government will consider an exit from the decade-long expansionary monetary policy with the novel Bank of Japan’s leadership. Bank of Japan Ueda cleared that the decade-high inflation is backed by higher import prices and has nothing to do with the domestic demand and labor cost index, which are extremely weak. Bank of Japan Ueda cited the current policy easing as appropriate to achieve pre-pandemic growth levels. Apart from that, the Bank of Japan Ueda cited that the central bank will look for normalization of the stimulant monetary policy after confidently achieving the 2% inflation target. The BoJ Kuroda successor refrained from discussing specifics of the Yield Conversion Control (YCC) for now. Investors should be aware that the Bank of Japan stretched the YCC on the Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) to 0.5% from above and below zero in its December monetary policy. Context of a pause in Federal Reserve’s policy tightening spell looks over After a quarter of sheer inflation softening in the United States, the street started anticipating that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would pause the rate hike cycle for a while and would allow the current monetary policy to tame the stubborn inflation. However, the US inflation turned out to be extremely persistent and started showing its true colors. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) looks set to rebound after a declining spell led by the tight labor market and a solid revival in consumer spending. The upbeat labor market is characterized by declining jobless claims, multi-decade lowest Unemployment Rate, and rising demand for fresh talent if we sideline some lay-off announcements by giant techies. USD/JPY technical outlook USD/JPY is auctioning in a Rising Wedge chart pattern that indicates a loss in the upside momentum on an hourly scale. The aforementioned chart pattern results in a bearish reversal after a breakdown. The asset is struggling to reclaim an auction above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 134.75. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index has surrendered oscillation in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00. A confident break into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00 will result in activation of the downside momentum.
WTI Bulls Struggle To Cheer The Broadly Risk-On Mood

WTI Crude Oil Justifies Confirmation Of The Bullish Chart Pattern

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 24.02.2023 08:39
WTI picks up bids to extend previous day’s rebound from three-week low. Confirmation of bullish chart pattern, upbeat MACD signals favor Oil buyers. Convergence of 50-SMA, 100-SMA appears short-term key upside hurdle. WTI crude oil bulls attack $76.00 during early Friday, around $76.10 by the press time, while stretching the previous day’s rebound from a three-week low. In doing so, black gold justifies confirmation of the bullish chart pattern, namely the falling wedge, as well as the bullish MACD signals. As a result, the energy benchmark is well-set to extend the latest rebound towards a convergence of 50-SMA and 100-SMA, near $77.00-10. However, multiple hurdles surrounding the $80.00 psychological magnet could challenge the WTI bulls past $77.10. It’s worth noting that the falling wedge confirmation’s theoretical target appears $81.70. Following that, a five-week-long horizontal resistance area surrounding $82.60-70 could restrict the commodity’s further advances. On the flip side, the stated wedge’s top line acts as an immediate support line, close to $75.80 by the press time. Should the quote drops below $75.80, the recent swing low near $73.80 may act as a buffer before highlighting the area comprising the lows marked so far in 2023, close to $72.50-70. Overall, Oil price regains buyer’s confidence even if the road toward the north appears long and bumpy. WTI: Four-hour chart Trend: Limited upside expected
Analysis Of Situation Of The USD/INR Pair

Strong Oil Prices Recently Weighed On The Indian Rupee (INR)

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 24.02.2023 08:36
USD/INR picks up bids to pare the biggest daily loss in a month. Firmer Oil price, hawkish Fed bets weigh on Indian Rupee. US Core PCE Price Index eyed for clear directions on US inflation conditions and Fed’s next move. USD/INR prints mild gains around 82.70 as it consolidates the biggest daily loss in a month during early Friday. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair struggles to cheer cautious optimism in the Asia-Pacific region as Oil price extends the previous day’s rebound from the monthly low. Markets in the Asia-Pacific region appear slightly positive, ex-China, as government nominees for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) board appear in no mood to challenge the easy money policies. Alternatively, mixed headlines surrounding China, due to its peace plan for Ukraine and ties with Russia, join the US-China readiness for trade talks despite not sharing the details and criticizing each other on various issues to challenge the market sentiment. Elsewhere, India is yet to recover from the Adani-led equity fiasco and the government’s push for cutting the budget deficit, which in turn raises doubts about one of the top Asian economies’ growth prospects. It’s worth noting that strong Oil prices recently weighed on the INR due to India’s reliance on energy imports. While portraying the mood, Wall Street closed on the positive side but the S&P 500 Futures recently failed to extend the recovery moves from the monthly low by retreating to 4,015, down 0.10% intraday at the latest. Further, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields seesaw around 3.87%, making it less active on the day, whereas the US two-year bond coupons stay inactive near 4.69% by the press time. Moving on, USD/INR traders should pay attention to the risk catalysts for clear directions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favorite inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. That said, the latest slew of positive US data keeps buyers hopeful. Also read: US PCE Inflation Preview: Can the US Dollar turn bullish for good? Technical analysis Although a four-month-old descending resistance line, around 82.95 by the press time, keeps challenging USD/INR bears, 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level surrounding 82.25 puts a floor under the price.
RBNZ preview: Fiscal spending argues for a hawkish 25bp hike

The Kiwi Pair (NZD/USD) Is Likely To Remain Directionless

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 24.02.2023 08:32
NZD/USD is sensing heat in climbing above the 0.6240 resistance despite a firmer appeal for risk-sensitive assets. A promise of a cyclone relief package by NZ PM Hipkins in an already inflated environment will worsen the situation further. An upbeat US labor market and consumer spending could propel the US PCE Inflation data. The NZD/USD pair is facing barricades in overstepping the immediate resistance of 0.6240 in the Tokyo session. Earlier, the Kiwi asset displayed a solid rebound from the round-level support of 0.6200 as investors shrugged off hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed)-inspired volatility. The asset is likely to remain directionless as investors are awaiting the release of the United States Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for fresh cues. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is demonstrating signs of volatility contraction amid a mixed market mood. The recovery moves from the risk-sensitive assets are bizarre in comparison with the price action by the USD Index. S&P500 futures have recovered their entire losses as investors have stopped worrying about higher rates by the Fed for a longer period in its battle against persistent inflation. Accordingly, the 10-year US Treasury yields have dropped further below 3.87%. The recent promise of a cyclone relief package by the New Zealand Prime Minister (PMI) Chris Hipkins has set inflation projections on fire. It is worth noting that the New Zealand economy is already suffering from galloping inflation and now further inducement is making the inflation situation more vulnerable. Regarding interest rate projections, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Assistant Governor, Karen Silk cited “The projected cash rate peak is not set in stone.” He further added that all rate hike options are on the table for the April meeting and the RBNZ will do all it takes to control inflation. The week is expected to end with a power-pack action propelled by the release of US PCE Inflation data. The street is expecting a rebound in the price pressures as the US labor market is getting stronger each day and households’ spending has recovered dramatically.  
Australian dollar - the sharp drop can be attributed to technical factors and hawkish Fed

Analysis Of The AUD/USD Pair: Bears Keep The Reins

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 23.02.2023 08:49
AUD/USD picks up bids to defend the bounce off key DMA, pokes five-week-old previous support. Bearish MACD signals, downbeat RSI keeps sellers hopeful. Buyers need to cross 0.6975 to retake control. AUD/USD holds onto the day-start rebound from a seven-week low as bulls attack the previous support line near 0.6835 during early Thursday morning in Europe. In doing so, the Aussie pair defends the bounce off the 200-DMA to print the first daily gains in three. It’s worth noting, however, that the recovery remains elusive amid bearish MACD signals and the downbeat RSI (14). Adding strength to the downside bias is the AUD/USD pair’s sustained trading beneath the support-turned-resistance line from late December 2022. That said, the AUD/USD bears are on the watch and waiting for a clear break of the 200-DMA, around 0.6800 at the latest, to initiate fresh short positions. Following that, a slump toward the previous monthly low surrounding 0.6685 can’t be ruled out. However, the last December’s bottom surrounding 0.6630 could challenge the AUD/USD bears afterward. On the flip side, a daily closing beyond the immediate hurdle, namely the support-turned-resistance line of 0.6835-40, can challenge the weekly high of 0.6920. Even so, the upside momentum remains unclear before the AUD/USD crosses a bit longer previous support line, close to 0.6970 at the latest. Also acting as an upside hurdle is the 0.7000 threshold and the mid-February swing high near 0.7030. Overall, AUD/USD rebound remains unimpressive as bears keep the reins. AUD/USD: Daily chart Trend: Bearish
USD/JPY Pair Has Rebounded Firmly From The Upward-Sloping Trendline

A Lack Of Major Events Could Restrict USD/JPY Moves

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 23.02.2023 08:45
USD/JPY fades bounce off intraday low, prints mild losses to snap four-day uptrend. Treasury bond yields remain lackluster on Japan holiday. Retreat in US inflation expectations joins mixed geopolitical, Fed headlines to probe momentum traders. USD/JPY retreats to 134.80 as bears appear determined to retake control, after a four-day absence, during early Thursday. Even so, Japan’s holiday and hawkish Fed concerns join geopolitical fears to challenge the downside momentum. As a result, the yen pair prints mild losses during the first downbeat day in five. Starting with the Yen positive headlines, the retreat in the US Treasury bond yields and inflation expectations, per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED), seem to exert downside pressure on the USD/JPY price. On the same line are the receding fears of nuclear war as US President Joe Biden thinks that his Russian counterpart isn’t up to using nuclear arms by backing off an international treaty. Furthermore, hawkish concerns surrounding the Bank of Japan (BoJ), due to the nearness to the end of Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s term, also weigh on the USD/JPY pair. Alternatively, Fed policymakers are all in for further rate lifts, per the latest Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, which in turn propels the US Dollar demand. Further, the fears surrounding the Ukraine-Russia war are far from over, with the latest edition of the West and China escalating the matter to the worse. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures bounced off the monthly low to print mild gains around 4,010 whereas the Treasury bond yields remain sidelined amid off in Japan. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) drops 0.20% to 104.35 by the press time. Looking ahead, a lack of major data/events could restrict USD/JPY moves but central bankers’ speeches can entertain the pair traders ahead of Friday’s US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. Also important to watch will be the geopolitical headlines surrounding Russia, China and the US. Technical analysis Wednesday’s Doji candlestick joins overbought RSI on the daily chart to challenge USD/JPY bulls.
The Commodities Feed: Specs continue to cut oil longs

WTI Crude Oil Stays On The Bear’s Radar

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 23.02.2023 08:44
WTI prints mild gains at a fortnight low, snaps two-day downtrend. Previous support line, 50-DMA guards immediate upside while bearish MACD signals lure sellers. RSI conditions suggest limited downside room and highlight seven-week-long horizontal support. WTI crude oil picks up bids to refresh intraday high near $74.40 during early Thursday. In doing so, the black metal prints the first daily gains in three while bouncing off a two-week low. Even so, the energy benchmark remains on the bear’s radar as it jostles with fortnight-old previous support near $74.45-50. Also supporting the downside bias for the Oil price are the bearish MACD signals and the quote’s sustained trading below the 50-DMA, around the $78.00 round figure at the latest. Even if the WTI crosses the $78.00 hurdle, a downward-sloping resistance line from early November 2022, near $78.50 by the press time, could act as the last defense of the Oil sellers. It’s worth noting that multiple tops marked during late January around $82.50-70 and the last December’s high of $83.30 could also challenge the WTI bulls. Meanwhile, the commodity’s fresh downside may aim for the horizontal area comprising multiple lows marked since early January, around $72.65-50. However, the late 2022 lows of $70.30 and the $70.00 round figure could join the nearly oversold RSI (14) conditions to challenge the Oil bears afterward. Overall, WTI stays on the bear’s radar unless it crosses the $83.30 hurdle on a daily closing basis. WTI: Daily chart Trend: Limited downside expected  
Analysis Of The USD/TRY Pair: The Turkish Lira Weakness Has Persisted

Turkish Lira (TRY) Traders Await The Central Bank Of The Republic Of Türkiye (CBRT) Interest Rate Decision

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 23.02.2023 08:41
USD/TRY struggles for clear directions after two-day downtrend. Turkish government announces economic support for quake-hit areas. CBRT expected to leave benchmark rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive month. US Dollar struggles to justify hawkish Fed bets, geopolitical fears amid sluggish session. USD/TRY seesaws around $18.85-90 as Turkish Lira (TRY) traders await the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) Interest Rate Decision on early Thursday. The quote’s latest inaction could also be linked to the pullback in the US Dollar and mixed concerns surrounding Türkiye. As per the latest earthquake updates from Ankara, “The number of people killed in Turkey in this month's devastating earthquakes has risen to 43,556, the country's Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu said overnight,” reported Reuters. The news also quotes the Diplomat as saying to the state broadcaster TRT Haber that there had been 7,930 aftershocks following the first quake on February 6 and that more than 600,000 apartments and 150,000 commercial premises had suffered at least moderate damage. To battle with the natural calamity, the Turkish government unveiled a temporary wage support scheme on Wednesday and banned layoffs in 10 cities to protect workers and businesses from the financial impact of the massive earthquake that hit the south of the country, per Reuters. On the other hand, US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats from the weekly high, down 0.16% intraday to 104.35, as the US Treasury bond yields lack momentum during Japan’s holidays. That said, the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields snapped a two-day uptrend the previous day before marking inaction around 3.92% and 4.70%. It’s worth noting that a retreat in the US inflation expectations, per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED), also weighs on the US Dollar. Meanwhile, hawkish Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and comments favoring further rate hikes from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, as well as from Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams, probe DXY bears. On the same line are the US-China tussles over Beijing’s ties with Moscow. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures bounced off the monthly low to print mild gains around 4,020 whereas the Treasury bond yields remain sidelined amid off in Japan. Looking forward, CBRT is likely to leave the benchmark rate unchanged at 9.0% for the fourth consecutive time, especially amid the natural calamities. The same can allow the USD/TRY to print some gains ahead of Friday’s US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. Technical analysis Although the overbought RSI (14) challenges USD/TRY buyers, the downside remains elusive unless the quote stays firmer past the 50-DMA, near $18.75 by the press time.      
USD/CAD - Canadian economy added 41,400 jobs beating expectations

Future Movement Of The Loonie Pair (USD/CAD) Might Be Downside

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 23.02.2023 08:39
USD/CAD holds lower ground near intraday low, snaps two-day uptrend. Bearish MACD signals, downbeat RSI hints at further downside of the Loonie pair. Convergence of 100-HMA, support line of two-week-old ascending triangle restricts short-term declines of the USD/CAD pair. USD/CAD drops 0.25% intraday during the first loss-making day in three heading into Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the Loonie pair drops to 1.3520 by the press time. That said, the USD/CAD pair’s latest moves appear forming a fortnight-old ascending triangle formation. The same joins downbeat RSI (14) and bearish MACD signals to favor the bearish chart formation. However, a clear downside break of 1.3500 becomes necessary as the 100-Hour Moving Average (HMA) joins the stated triangle’s lower line to increase the strength of the stated support confluence. Following that, tops marked during late January and early February, respectively near 1.3520 and 1.3475, could probe the USD/CAD bears before directing them to the theoretical target surrounding 1.3200. On the contrary, USD/CAD buyers may aim for the latest swing high surrounding 1.3570 before poking the stated triangle’s top line, close to 1.3585 by the press time. In a case where the Loonie pair remains firmer past 1.3585, the bearish chart formation gets defied as the bulls brace for a late 2022 swing high surrounding 1.3700. To sum up, USD/CAD slips off bull’s radar but the sellers await clear break of 1.3500 to retake control. USD/CAD: Hourly chart Trend: Limited downside expected
RBNZ preview: Fiscal spending argues for a hawkish 25bp hike

The Kiwi Pair (NZD/USD) Has Extended Its Recovery

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 23.02.2023 08:36
NZD/USD has displayed a sheer recovery to near 0.6250 as the risk-on mood solidifies. The Kiwi asset is attempting to deliver a breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle. The RSI (14) is on the verge of delivering a break into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00. The NZD/USD pair has recovered dramatically after sensing a buying interest around 0.6210 in the Asian session. The Kiwi asset has extended its recovery to near 0.6250 after a responsive buying action and is looking to drive its range extension further as the risk-on impulse has solidified. Investors have digested the fact that galloping inflation in the United States needs immediate treatment, therefore, the Federal Reserve (Fed) cannot pause the policy tightening spell as it could dampen the efforts yet made to bring it down. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is resisting in continuing the downside further after correcting to near 104.00. However, the positive market sentiment could continue sending pressure on the safe-haven assets. NZD/USD is attempting to deliver a breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern that indicates a sheer volatility contraction on an hourly scale. The downward-sloping trendline of the above-mentioned chart pattern is placed from February 20 high at 0.6262 while the upward-sloping trendline is placed from February 17 low at 0.6204. The Kiwi asset has successfully shifted its auction above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6233, which indicates more upside ahead. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is on the verge of delivering a break into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which will trigger the upside momentum. For further upside, the Kiwi asset needs to surpass January 8 low at 0.6272, which will drive the asset towards January 9 low at 0.6320, followed by February 7 high at 0.6363. Alternatively, a breakdown of January 6 low at 0.6193 will drag the asset toward November 28 low at 0.6155. A slippage below the latter will expose the asset for more downside toward the round-level support at 0.6100. NZD/USD two-hour chart  
The USD/INR Traders Seem To Witness Additional Downside Movement

The USD/INR Pair Might Find Further Resistance Around 83.50

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 23.02.2023 08:33
USD/INR is displaying wild moves as investors are discounting the impact of the release of the overnight FOMC minutes. Fed policymakers are favoring the continuation of policy tightening to avoid fears of a recovery in US inflation. The asset is testing the breakout of the Descending Triangle chart pattern around 82.70. The USD/INR pair is displaying wild moves in the opening session as investors are discounting the impact of the release of the hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. According to the FOMC minutes, Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers were loud and clear that a strong labor market and upbeat January Monthly Sales are posing a threat of pause in the declining trend of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI). Therefore, the Fed should reach to terminal rate to bring down inflation to the 2% target. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped to near 104.00 after printing a three-day high of 104.20 as the risk aversion theme has eased. S&P500 futures have added significant gains in the Asian session, portraying a sheer recovery in the risk appetite of the market participants. USD/INR is testing the breakout of the Descending Triangle chart pattern on an hourly scale. A breakout of the aforementioned chart pattern results in a volatility expansion after a sheer contraction. The downward-sloping trendline of the triangle is plotted from February 14 high at 83.04 while the horizontal support is placed from February 14 low at 82.57. The mighty 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 82.73 is providing support to the US Dollar bulls. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is looking for a cushion around 40.00 after a healthy correction. Should the asset break above February 22 high at around 83.00, US Dollar bulls will drive the asset toward October 23 high at 83.29. A breach of the latter will expose the asset to unchartered territory. The asset might find further resistance around 83.50, being a round-level number. On the flip side, a break below February 14 low at 82.57 will drag the asset toward February 10 low at 82.33 followed by January 31 high at 82.07. USD/INR hourly chart  
If The Bank Of England Hike Interest Rates Again Later This Month Will Exert Downward Pressure On The EUR/GBP Cross

The EUR/GBP Cross Pair Is Expected To Display More Weakness

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 23.02.2023 08:32
EUR/GBP looks vulnerable around 0.8800 as hawkish BoE bets soar after a recovery in UK preliminary PMI data. UK’s Hunt is facing calls from within his Conservative Party to cut taxes and raise pay for public service workers. ECB Lagarde is set to continue its policy tightening spell of 50 bps to March. The EUR/GBP pair is struggling to find any direction in the Tokyo session amid the absence of a potential trigger. The cross is juggling around 0.8800 and is expected to display more weakness as an economic recovery in the United Kingdom and a shortage of labor is demanding the continuation of policy tightening by the Bank of England (BoE). Investors were in a dilemma whether the Bank of England (BoE) should pause policy contraction as the economic outlook was expected extremely bleak or continue pushing rates higher to tame stubborn inflation. Shortage of labor and escalating food inflation is continuously maintaining havoc that the inflation could be underpinned anytime to new highs. No doubt, the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) has eased in the past few months, however, the headline CPI figure is still in double-digit and sufficient to trouble households. Meanwhile, a recovery in the economic activities shown by the preliminary S&P Global PMI (Feb) data, released this week, indicates that labor demand could be fueled further and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey should consider continuation of policy tightening. A figure below 50.0 for the preliminary Manufacturing activities indicates contraction, however, the pace of decline in activities has squeezed significantly. BoE panel sees the interest rate peak around 4.5% and the continuation of the rate hike in the March monetary policy meeting looks warranted. Meanwhile, UK Finance Minister (FM) Jeremy Hunt is facing calls from within his Conservative Party to cut taxes in his March 15 budget and from trade unions to raise pay for public service workers, as reported by Reuters, which could propel inflationary pressures further. On the Eurozone front, clarity on the extent of the rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde has eased some uncertainty. ECB Lagarde has announced a continuation of 50 bps rate hike spree for March to keep the downside momentum in Eurozone inflation intact.
The USD/MXN Pair’s Further Moves Rely On The Mexican Inflation Data

Further Downside Movement Of The USD/MXN Pair Is Expected

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 23.02.2023 08:24
USD/MXN grinds near the lowest levels since April 2018. Nearly oversold RSI conditions challenge bears on their way to three-month-old support line. Two-week-long descending trend line challenges bulls before $18.50 resistance confluence. Sustained trading below the key trend line, moving average joins bearish MACD signals to favor sellers. USD/MXN bears take a breather around $18.40 during early Thursday, following a slump to a nearly five-year low the previous day. In doing so, the Mexican Peso (MXN) pair takes clues from the RSI (14) conditions to probe the sellers. However, bearish MACD signals and the quote’s sustained trading below the previous support line from early February, as well as the 10-DMA, keep the bears hopeful. That said, the latest multi-month low near $18.30 appears immediate support for the USD/MXN bears to watch during the quote’s fresh downside. Following that, a descending support line from late November 2022, close to $18.20 by the press time, will be crucial to challenge the pair’s further declines. In a case where USD/MXN remains bearish past $18.20, the April 2018 low near the $18.00 threshold should lure the sellers. On the contrary, recovery moves may initially aim for the fortnight-old resistance line, close to $18.40 by the press time. Following that, a convergence of the 10-DMA and the support-turned-resistance line from February 02, close to $18.50, will be crucial to watch before welcoming the buyers. USD/MXN: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected
Central Banks and Inflation: Lessons from History and Current Realities

The Bank Of Japan (BoJ) Concerns Seem To Exert Downside Pressure On The GBP/JPY Prices

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 22.02.2023 09:39
GBP/JPY holds lower grounds as it pares the biggest daily gains in a week. Firmer UK PMIs bolster hawkish BoE bets but Brexit, wage talks probe buyers. Mixed Japan data, BoJ concerns join a retreat in yields to weigh on prices. GBP/JPY bulls take a breather around 163.30, after rising the most in seven days during early Wednesday. The cross-currency pair’s latest gains could be linked to the upbeat UK data and hawkish concerns surrounding the Bank of England (BoE). However, sluggish yields and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) concerns seem to exert downside pressure on the GBP/JPY prices. Also likely to challenge the pair’s moves are the mixed data from the UK and Japan. Earlier in the day, Reuters Tankan Manufacturing Index for Japan came in as -5.0 for February versus -6.0 in January. On the same line, Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index eased to 17 for the said month versus 20.0 prior. Elsewhere, Brexit woes loom as the Eurosceptic Conservatives challenge UK Prime Minister’s talks with the European Union (EU) over the Northern Ireland (NI) border issue. The leader of Northern Ireland's largest unionist party (Jeffrey Donaldson, leader of the Democratic Unionist Party) said on Tuesday there was still work to be done to find a resolution to a dispute between Britain and the European Union over their post-Brexit trading arrangements with the province, per Reuters. Alternatively, the preliminary readings of the UK S&P Global/CIPS data for February reported that the Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2 versus 46.8 expected and 47.0 prior while Services PMI jumped to a seven-month high of 53.3 compared to 48.3 market forecasts and 48.7 previous readings. Further, Japan’s wage talks and signals for higher payments to workers in Tokyo seem to underpin the need for hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) action even if the latest chatters favor Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s one last shot at the ultra-easy monetary policy before he retires in April. It should be noted that the expectations of stronger Fed bets and strong US data also underpin the US Treasury bond yields and propel the GBP/JPY prices. Amid these plays, the US 10-year and two-year treasury bond yields seesaw around the three-month highs marked the previous day while S&P 500 Futures print mild gains despite Wall Street’s negative closing. Looking ahead, a light calendar and cautious mood ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes may restrict immediate GBP/JPY move. However, the hopes that BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will play one last shot before his retirement seem to underpin the bullish bias. Technical analysis A downward-sloping resistance line from late October 2022, close to 163.85 by the press time, challenges GBP/JPY buyers amid overbought RSI (14)
Uncertain Path Ahead: Will Silver Regain Historic Highs?

The Downward Trend Of Silver Could Get Extended Further

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 22.02.2023 09:36
Silver remains confined in a narrow trading band below the $22.00 mark, or the 100-day SMA. The technical setup favours bearish traders and supports prospects for a further near-term fall. A sustained strength beyond the 38.2% Fibo. level will negate the bearish bias for the XAG/USD. Silver struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Wednesday and oscillates in a narrow trading range through the early European session. The white metal remains below the $22.00 round-figure mark and the technical setup still seems tilted in favour of bearish traders. The aforementioned handle coincides with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and keeps a lid on the recovery from the YTD low, around the $21.20-$21.15 region touched last Friday. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in the bearish territory and add credence to the near-term negative outlook. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD is to the downside. That said, some follow-through buying beyond the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally from October 2022, around the $22.15 zone, could negate the bearish bias and prompt some short-covering rally. The XAG/USD might then accelerate the momentum towards the $22.55-$22.60 supply zone, en route to the $23.00 mark, or the 61.8% Fibo. level, which could cap any further positive move. On the flip side, the 50% Fibo. level, around the $21.35 area, now seems to act as immediate support ahead of Friday's swing low, around the $21.20-$21.15 zone. A convincing break below the $21.00 mark could drag the XAG/USD towards the $20.60 region. The downward trajectory could get extended further towards the $20.00 psychological mark and the next relevant support near the $19.75-$19.70 zone. Silver daily chart  
The Commodities Feed: Further oil supply disruptions

Further Downside Movement Of WTI Crude Oil Is Expected

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 22.02.2023 09:34
WTI takes offers to renew intraday low, extends previous day’s fall. Clear U-turn from 100-SMA, downbeat MACD signals keep Oil bears hopeful. Buyers need validation from a multi-day-old downward-sloping resistance line. WTI crude oil takes offers to extend the previous day’s losses to $76.00, refreshing the intraday low amid early Wednesday in Europe. In doing so, the black gold breaks a two-week-long ascending trend line, currently around $76.10. The commodity’s latest weakness could be linked to its early-week retreat from the 100-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA). Adding strength to the Oil’s pullback moves could be the bearish MACD signals. That said, WTI bears are well-set to poke the $75.00 round figure before approaching the monthly low surrounding $72.50. It should be noted, however, that the Oil’s weakness past $72.50 could make it vulnerable to plunge toward the previous monthly low, also the lowest level since December 2021, near $70.30. In a case where the energy benchmark remains bearish past $70.30, the $70.00 round figure appears crucial for the Oil bears to watch as it holds the key to further downside targeting the late 2021 swing low around $66.10. Meanwhile, recovery moves need validation from the 100-bar SMA, close to $77.50 by the press time. Even so, a convergence of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the commodity’s late January to early February fall and a downward-sloping resistance line from January 27, around $78.80-90, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls. Also acting as an upside filter is the $79.00 and multiple stops around the $80.00 psychological magnet. WTI: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected
New Zealand dollar against US dollar decreased by 1.07% yesterday

Reserve Bank of New Zealand has hiked its Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.75%

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 22.02.2023 09:23
NZD/USD is demonstrating a volatility contraction ahead of Federal Open Market Committee minutes. A recovery in the odds of policy tightening continuation by the Federal Reserve sent US Treasury yields on fire. Reserve Bank of New Zealand has hiked its Official Cash Rate by 50 bps to 4.75%. NZD/USD might display a sheer downside after surrendering the horizontal support plotted from 0.6190. NZD/USD has turned sideways around 0.6230 in the early European session after wild movements showed post-hawkish monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Volatility in the Kiwi asset has squeezed dramatically as investors have shifted their focus towards the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, which are scheduled in the late New York session. Investors’ risk-taking ability is improving gradually as the risk-sensitive assets have shown some recovery after observing sheer weakness on Tuesday. S&P500 futures have added some gains after recording the worst day of 2023. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is gradually marching towards 103.90. Weak momentum in the USD index could spoil the upside bias ahead. However, investors are expected to remain anxious ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes. US yields print a three-month high after upbeat PMI figures The tight labor market and solid monthly Retail Sales released this month already triggered fears of a rebound in the declining Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States. And, now upbeat preliminary S&P PMI (Feb) data have bolstered the case of a sheer revival in consumer spending. On Tuesday, the preliminary S&P Manufacturing PMI (Feb) climbed to 47.8 from the consensus of 47.3 and the former release of 46.9. The Services PMI soared to 50.5 from the estimates of 47.2 and the prior release of 46.8. Economic activities in the United States were contracting in the past three months and investors started anticipating that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would consider a pause in the policy tightening spell this month. However, Fed chair Jerome Powell was reiterating that inflation is persistent and it would be premature to consider a pause or rate cut in the current monetary policy. Now, a sheer expansion in the scale of economic activities is conveying that the current monetary policy is not restrictive enough to tame stubborn inflation. A recovery in the odds of policy tightening continuation by the Federal Reserve sent US Treasury yields on fire. The return generated on 10-year US Treasury bonds printed a fresh three-month high at 3.96%. Federal Open Market Committee minutes hog the limelight Investors are keenly awaiting the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, which will provide a detailed explanation behind the 25 basis points (bps) interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in its February monetary policy meeting. Apart from that, the minutes will determine what authorities are planning for the terminal rate and targets decided for inflation for the current year and a roadmap for achieving the 2% inflation target. Recently, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard have advocated for another 50 basis-point hike, which should be on the table for upcoming decisions, as reported by Bloomberg. A strong consideration for 50 bps rates might propel recession fears in the United States. Reserve Bank of New Zealand hikes OCR by 50 bps to 4.75% Inflationary pressures in the New Zealand economy have not peaked yet as the domestic demand is extremely solid. And Cyclone Gabrielle, considered as the worst storm, has created havoc that the price index could propel further. To strengthen the monetary tools in the battle against inflation, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has hiked its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 bps to 4.75%. In November monetary policy, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr pushed interest rates by 75 bps. A bumper rate hike was already expected by the RBNZ amid the fresh release of the helicopter money as New Zealand Prime Minister (PM) Chris Hipkins has promised a cyclone relief package of NZ$300 million ($187.08 million). Meanwhile, the labor market has started demonstrating devastating effects due to the continuation of policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. In the monetary policy statement, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr was loud and clear that the economy will see a recession in the period of nine to twelve months. He further added, “The central bank is encouraging savings by increasing deposit rates to avert inflation”.  The central bank sees no evidence that inflation targets should be raised. NZD/USD technical outlook NZD/USD has been declining for the past few weeks after forming a Double Top chart pattern on a four-hour scale, which conveys a bearish reversal. The Kiwi asset has dropped to near the horizontal support plotted from January 6 low at 0.6190. A slippage below the above-mentioned horizontal support will trigger the downside momentum. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6242 is acting as a major barricade for the New Zealand Dollar. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is on the verge of slipping into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00. An occurrence of the same will trigger a downside momentum.
UBS buys Credit Suisse for $3.2bn. Last week was the worst one for equity markets in 2023

Further upside movement of the USD/CHF Pair is expected

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 22.02.2023 09:20
USD/CHF pares the biggest daily gains in three weeks by reversing from golden Fibonacci ratio. Multiple trend lines, 200-SMA stand tall to challenge downside move, RSI conditions also suggest further grinding towards the north. Buyers seem to have a smooth road ahead of 0.9350 hurdle. USD/CHF seesaws around 0.9265 as it consolidates the previous day’s gains with mild losses heading into Wednesday’s European session. In doing so, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair makes a U-turn from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, also known as the golden Fibonacci ratio, to pare the biggest daily jump since early February. Even so, the most steady RSI (14), above 50, joins the bullish MACD signals, despite being sluggish of late, to keep the USD/CHF buyers hopeful. That said, a one-week-old ascending trend line restricts the immediate downside of the USD/CHF pair near 0.9245. Following that, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 200-SMA could probe the bears around 0.9235 and 0.9220 in that order. It’s worth noting that an upward-sloping support line from February 01, close to 0.9185 at the latest, appears the last defense of the USD/CHF bulls. On the flip side, a clear break of the aforementioned key Fibonacci retracement level of 0.9275 could quickly propel the USD/CHF prices toward the 0.9300 round figure before highlighting the latest swing top near 0.9335. Though, multiple hurdles near 0.9350 seem to challenge the USD/CHF pair’s upside past 0.9335, a break of which could easily challenge the previous monthly high surrounding 0.9490. USD/CHF: Four-hour chart Trend: Further upside expected
A Slump In The Turkish Current Account Balance Allowed The USD/TRY Pair To Print The First Daily Gains

The CBRT appears the biggest driver for the USD/TRY upside

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 22.02.2023 09:17
USD/TRY bulls take a breather as markets turn cautious ahead of Fed Minutes. Mixed concerns on rate positions, earthquake at home challenges the Turkish Lira pair sellers. Upbeat US data underpins hawkish Fed bets but mention of policy pivot could weigh on prices. CBRT has been holding rates steady in the last three monetary policy meetings at 9.0%. USD/TRY slides to $18.81, retreating from the all-time high marked the previous day, as the US Dollar eases ahead of the key Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Adding strength to the pullback moves could be the Turkish Lira (TRY) traders’ cautious mood before Thursday’s Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) Interest Rate Decision. It should be noted that the earthquake in Turkiye and Syria appeared the latest worry for the nations. However, the Turkish inflation eased in the last two months and hence defends the CBRT’s latest inaction surrounding the 9.0% interest rate. On the other hand, strong prints of the preliminary US S&P Global PMIs for February joined the hawkish Fed bets to underpin the US Dollar Index’s first daily positive in three the previous day, down 0.07% intraday near 104.11 at the latest. It’s worth observing that the monetary policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the CBRT appears the biggest driver for the USD/TRY upside. Elsewhere, comments from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian President Vladimir Putin weigh on the market sentiment and tease USD/TRY bulls as both suggest further tension between Moscow and Kyiv, which also includes indirect participation of the West and China of late. Though, an absence of major updates in Asia seemed to have paused the risk-off mood. Against this backdrop, the US 10-year and two-year treasury bond yields seesaw around the three-month highs marked the previous day while S&P 500 Futures print mild gains despite Wall Street’s negative closing. Looking forward, Turkish Capacity Utilization and Manufacturing Confidence for February could entertain USD/TRY traders ahead of the Fed Minutes. However, major attention will be given to Thursday’s CBRT Interest Rate decision for clear directions. Technical analysis Overbought RSI joins the $19.00 psychological magnet to challenge the USD/TRY bulls. The downside moves, however, remain elusive unless providing a daily closing below the 50-DMA support near $18.75
Sharp drop in Canadian inflation suggests rates have peaked

The Loonie Pair Struggles To Defend USD/CAD Bulls

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 22.02.2023 09:12
USD/CAD seesaws around six-week high after rising the most in three weeks the previous day. Descending resistance line from early November 2022 guards immediate upside. Upside break of 100-DMA, four-month-old trend line keeps buyers hopeful. USD/CAD grinds near a 1.5-month high during early Wednesday, after crossing the key moving average and resistance line the previous day. That said, the Loonie pair struggles to defend USD/CAD bulls as a downward-sloping resistance line from early November 2022, close to 1.3555 at the latest, challenges the immediate upside of the quote. The upbeat performance of the USD/CAD price could be linked to the strong RSI (14), not overbought. It should be noted, however, that the January 2023 peak surrounding 1.3685 and late 2022 top near 1.3705, could act as the last defense of the USD/CAD bears. As a result, the USD/CAD upside appears to have limited room towards the north. Meanwhile, a daily closing below the 100-DMA and the previous resistance line from early October 2022, respectively near 1.3515 and 1.3505, precede the 1.3500 round figure and could recall the USD/CAD bears. Following that, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s August-October 2022 upside, near 1.3355, will challenge the USD/CAD bears before directing them to the 200-DMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3210, also known as golden Fibonacci ratio. Overall, USD/CAD remains on the bear’s radar even as the road to the north appears bumpy. USD/CAD: Daily chart Trend: Further upside expected
Bank of England is expected to hike the rate by 25bp. Kelvin Wong talks Euro against British pound

Bears Of The EUR/GBP Pair Keep The Reins For The Third Day

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 21.02.2023 09:34
EUR/GBP retreats from intraday high to extend Friday’s U-turn from two-week high. Full market’s return, cautious mood probe Euro bulls ahead of Eurozone ZEW Sentiment data, monthly PMI. The British Pound braces for UK PMI amid mixed concerns surrounding Brexit. EUR/GBP holds lower ground around 0.8870, after recently reversing from the daily top, as bears keep the reins for the third consecutive day to early Tuesday in Europe. In doing so, the cross-currency pair portrays the broad retreat in the Euro, as well as the recovery in the British Pound (GBP), ahead of the key data for the bloc and Britain. That said, a fresh run-up in the US Treasury bond yields, and the fears emanating from China, North Korea and Russia seemed to have underpinned the market’s rush for the US Dollar as traders from Washington return after a long weekend. As a result, the Euro witnesses a pullback in the demand due to its contrast with the greenback. It’s worth noting that the recent statistics from the Euro area have been firmer while those from the UK have been mixed, which in turn keeps the pair buyers hopeful ahead of the key numbers. Additionally teasing the EUR/GBP buyers are the hawkish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) official. That said, ECB governing council member and Finnish central bank Chief Olli Rehn recently said, per Reuters, “ECB should keep raising interest rates beyond March and the rate peak, which should be stuck to for some time, could be reached over the summer.” On the same line, upbeat prints of Eurozone Consumer Confidence matched the market forecasts of -19 versus -20.9 prior. Further, Germany's Bundesbank released its monthly report and noted that the economic outlook was somewhat brighter with the short-term outlook turning more favorable than seen just a few months ago. Alternatively, fears of no imminent Brexit deal should have weighed on the British Pound (GBP) as the UK’s Conservative Members of the Parliament (MPs) dislike the deal with the European Union (EU) on Northern Ireland (NI). Some of them are threatening to resign, per The Times, amid fears of the compromised deal. The news also mentioned that UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak spent notable time in the House of Commons to convince the MPs that no deal had yet been agreed and talks were continuing. “He was told he ‘hasn’t got a hope’ of succeeding without the support of the Democratic Unionist Party,” per The Times. Amid these plays, stock futures are down and the Treasury bond yields, as well as the US Dollar, are firmer, which in turn weigh on the Euro amid a sluggish start to the key day. Looking forward, Eurozone ZEW sentiment figures for February will precede the preliminary readings of the bloc’s, as well as the UK’s, Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for the said month to direct short-term pair moves. Given the cross-currency pair’s latest retreat, backed by the market speculations that the Euro rally is about to end amid the European Central Bank’s (ECB) inability to offer higher rates, the sellers may keep the reins unless the scheduled data mark any surprise. Technical analysis EUR/GBP fades bounce off the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 0.8815 by the press time, which in turn joins bearish MACD signals and failure to cross the 0.8915-10 horizontal hurdle to keep bears hopeful.
New Zealand dollar against US dollar decreased by 1.07% yesterday

The NZD/USD Pair Is Expected To Continue Its Downside Movement

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 21.02.2023 09:25
NZD/USD has slipped firmly below 0.6240 as the risk-off market mood has strengthened. Anxiety among investors is soaring ahead of the opening of the US markets after an extended weekend. A promise of a cyclone relief package from NZ Hipkins could propel inflationary pressures further. The NZD/USD pair has slipped below 0.6240 in the early European session. The Kiwi asset is expected to continue its downside movement as anxiety among investors is soaring ahead of the opening of the US markets after an extended weekend. S&P500 futures are showing losses as the US markets are yet to show the impact of US-China tensions. Apart from that, missile launching by North Korea on weekend near Japan’s EEC region event will also be discounted by the market participants. The struggle of the US Dollar Index (DXY) for pushing its auction above 103.70 is intact, at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yields have trimmed some gains and have slipped to near 3.85%. Investors’ entire focus will remain on the interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which is scheduled for Wednesday. February’s monetary policy of RBNZ is extremely important as New Zealand Prime Minister (PM) Chris Hipkins has promised a cyclone relief package of NZ$300 million ($187.08 million). In times, when the New Zealand economy is struggling to tame galloping inflation, the fresh release of the helicopter money carries the potential of propelling inflationary pressures further. The situation is extremely troublesome for RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr as more rates could impact the economic activities ahead. As per the consensus, the RBNZ is expected to announce a hike in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) to 4.75%.  
Australian dollar against US dollar decreased amid weak China CPI data

Economic Activities In The Australian Economy Are Accelerating Despite Higher Interest Rates

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 21.02.2023 09:21
AUD/USD has shifted its auction profile below 0.6900 amid the risk-off mood. Federal Reserve policymakers have been citing it would be premature to consider a pause in the policy tightening spell this year. Reserve Bank of Australia also considered the option of a 50 bps rate hike as the Australian inflation has not peaked yet. AUD/USD has confidently shifted above the neckline of the Head and Shoulder formation, indicating a bullish reversal. AUD/USD has surrendered the round-level support of 0.6900 in the early European session as investors getting worried that higher interest rates by western central banks are getting nightmares for the producers. The market sentiment is turning risk-averse ahead of the opening of the United States markets after a long weekend. S&P500 futures have extended their losses as the renewal of higher inflation projections after a significant jump in US Retail Sales has triggered fears of more rate hikes beyond March. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is making deliberate efforts in shifting its auction profile above 103.70. The recovery move by the USD Index in the Asian session was higher confident, however, further range extension is facing pressure. This week, the show-stopper will be the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, which will release on Wednesday. Investors are expecting a sheer hawkish stance on the interest rate guidance as Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers have been citing it would be premature considering a pause in the policy tightening spell this year. This has trimmed demand for US government bonds. Lower demand for government bonds has propelled the 10-year yields above 3.85%. Hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia minutes fail to support the Australian Dollar It was widely anticipated that Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe and his mates would be advocating for more interest rate hikes as Australian inflation is critically stubborn. The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) has refreshed its multi-decade of 7.8% and is showing no signs of softening ahead in spite of the fact that the Official Cash Rate (OCR) has been already pushed to 3.35%. The message from the RBA minutes was clear that more interest rates are warranted as strong consumer demand is not allowing Australian inflation to soften from its peak. According to the RBA minutes, policymakers also considered the option of 50 basis points (bps) interest rate hike considering the persistence of inflation. The RBA members also highlighted that the Unemployment Rate is the lowest in the past 50 years and job vacancies are extremely high, which is delighting households for flushing surplus funds into the economy. Aussie PMI is out, US PMI is due yet Apart from the hawkish RBA minutes, upbeat preliminary Australian S&P PMI (Feb) data has also failed to strengthen the Australian Dollar. The Manufacturing PMI landed at 50.1, higher than the consensus of 49.9 and the former release of 50.0. The Services PMI scaled firmly to 49.2 versus the estimates of 48.4 and the prior release of 48.6. Economic activities in the Australian economy are accelerating despite higher interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia, which indicates that consumer demand is extremely robust. In Tuesday’s New York session, preliminary US S&P PMI numbers will be keenly watched. The Manufacturing PMI (Feb) is seen lower at 46.8 vs. the prior release of 46.9. And the Services PMI is seen at 46.6 against the former release of 46.8. There is no denying the fact that producers have trimmed their dependency on borrowings from commercial banks due to higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve. And are exploiting their retained earnings to avoid higher interest obligations. Firms have postponed their expansion plans, therefore, a continuation of contraction in economic activities is highly expected. FOMC minutes to guide further movement to the FX market ahead The minutes from the Federal Reserve will provide a detailed explanation of hiking interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in the February monetary policy meeting. The street always tries to remain ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers. Therefore, the major focal point for investors in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes is the meaningful cues that could provide guidance on interest rates. Information on the terminal rate and targets for inflation will be keenly watched. AUD/USD technical outlook AUD/USD has shifted its business above the neckline of the Head and Shoulder chart pattern plotted from January 10 low at 0.6860 on a four-hour scale. The responsive buying action from the market participants negated the downside break of the above-mentioned chart pattern. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6900 is acting as a cushion for the Australian Dollar. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has rebounded into the 40.00-60.00 range, which indicates a bullish reversal. A break into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00 will trigger the bullish momentum.
Technical analysis of Silver by Alexandros Yfantis - May 5th

Further Downside Movement Off Silver Is Expected

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 21.02.2023 09:15
Silver price holds lower ground near intraday bottom, snaps two-day winning streak. U-turn from key moving average, Fibonacci retracement level joins bearish MACD signals to favor XAG/USD bears. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement adds to the upside filters, $21.40 acts as immediate support. Silver price (XAG/USD) remains depressed around $21.70 during the first loss-making day in three heading into Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the bright metal portrays a clear reversal from the 200-Hour Moving Average (HMA), as well as the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of its moves between February 09 and 17. Not only the U-turn from the key technical hurdles but the bearish MACD signals also keep XAG/USD sellers hopeful. With this, the precious metal’s further declines toward one-week-old horizontal support near $21.40 appear imminent. However, the monthly low near $21.20 and the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the metal’s moves from February 09 to 20, around the $21.00 threshold, could challenge the Silver bears. In a case where the metal remains bearish past $21.00, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the $20.00 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, the 200-HMA and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, respectively close to $21.85 and $21.90, restrict short-term recovery of the XAG/USD. Following that, the $22.00 round figure will precede the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, also known as the gold Fibonacci ratio, could challenge the Silver buyers around $22.05. Should the XAG/USD remains firmer past $22.05, the February 10 swing high near $22.30 could act as the last defense of the bears. Silver price: Hourly chart Trend: Further downside expected
SNB stands firm in the face of market turbulence with 50bp rate hike

The Cautious Mood Ahead Of The Key Data/Events Favors The USD/CHF Buyers

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 21.02.2023 09:11
USD/CHF grinds near intraday high during the first positive day in three. Risk aversion joins firmer yields to underpin US Dollar rebound amid full markets. Geopolitical concerns surrounding China, North Korea and Russia weigh on sentiment. Swiss trade numbers, US PMI eyed for immediate directions, Fed Minutes is the key. USD/CHF remains mildly bid around 0.9240, despite recently easing from the intraday high, as the Swiss pair (CHF) traders benefit from the US Dollar rebound amid sour sentiment. It’s worth noting, however, that the cautious mood ahead of the key data/events favors the USD/CHF buyers. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) snaps a two-day losing streak while marking mild gains near 104.00. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies traces the US Treasury bond yields, as well as benefits from the traditional haven status. That said, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields pick up bids to near the highest levels marked since early November 2022, mildly bid around 3.86% at the latest. While portraying the mood, S&P 500 Futures declined 0.40% intraday to 4,070 at the latest. While tracing the run-up in the US Treasury bond yields, the fears emanating from China, North Korea and Russia seemed to have underpinned the fresh run-up in the US Treasury bond yields, amid hawkish hopes from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), as well as the US Dollar rebound. That said, the US and China alleged each other over the balloon shooting whereas the US diplomatic ties with Taiwan teased Beijing on Monday. On the same line, the United Nations (UN) Security Council is alarmed by Japan for North Korea’s missile testing and could help the US Dollar to remain firmer due to its safe-haven status. At home, the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) previous warnings to use open market operations to defend the CHF seemed to have weighed on the USD/CHF prices. However, the cautious mood ahead of today’s Swiss trade numbers for January and the preliminary readings of the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for February will be important for the US Dollar ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Overall, USD/CHF is likely to remain directed towards the north unless the US PMIs disappoint the watchers. Technical analysis Given the USD/CHF pair’s rebound from the previous resistance line from late November, close to 0.9225 at the latest, the buyers are likely approaching the weekly top of 0.9332. However, the 50-DMA restricts the immediate upside of the quote near 0.9245.
USD/CAD - Canadian economy added 41,400 jobs beating expectations

The Loonie Pair (USD/CAD) Buyers Cheer Downbeat Prices Of WTI Crude Oil

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 21.02.2023 09:04
USD/CAD picks up bids to reverse the week-start losses but previous support line challenges the bulls. Geopolitical fears, return of full markets weigh on sentiment and underpin US Dollar rebound. Oil price bears the burden of firmer USD and fears of slow demand growth, higher inventories. Canada inflation eyed as BoC signaled a pause in rate hikes, US PMIs should be observed too. USD/CAD clings to mild gains near 1.3480 as it reverses the previous day’s losses during early Tuesday in Europe. In doing so, the Loonie pair buyers cheer downbeat prices of Canada’s key export item, WTI crude oil, as well as the full market’s favor to the US Dollar, ahead of the key US and Canadian statistics. WTI crude oil drops nearly 1.0% on a day as it renews its intraday low to near $76.60 by the press time. In doing so, the black gold reverses the previous day’s corrective bounce off a two-week low, the first in six days, amid fears of more supplies from the US and Saudi Arabia as Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Monday, “OPEC+ is flexible enough to change decisions whenever required.” Elsewhere, fears emanating from China, North Korea and Russia seemed to have joined the fresh run-up in the US Treasury bond yields, amid hawkish hopes from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), to underpin the US Dollar rebound. That said, the US and China alleged each other over the balloon shooting whereas the US diplomatic ties with Taiwan teased Beijing on Monday. On the same line, the United Nations (UN) Security Council is alarmed by Japan for North Korea’s missile testing and could help the US Dollar to remain firmer due to its safe-haven status. It should be noted that the US Dollar Index (DXY) snaps a two-day losing streak while marking mild gains near 104.00. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies traces the US Treasury bond yields, as well as benefits from the traditional haven status. That said, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields pick up bids to near the highest levels marked since early November 2022, mildly bid around 3.86% at the latest. While portraying the mood, S&P 500 Futures declined 0.40% intraday to 4,070 at the latest. Looking forward, the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, as well as the Bank of Canada (BoC) CPI Core for the said month, will be observed closely for immediate directions as the BoC has already teased a pause in the rates. As a result, softer prints of inflation data may allow the BoC to announce the policy pivot and propel the USD/CAD. On the other hand, the preliminary readings of the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for February will be important for the US Dollar ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Given the recently hawkish bias for the Fed, versus the BoC’s dovish tone, the USD/CAD is likely to witness further upside unless the Oil prices witness a strong rally. Technical analysis A one-week-old support-turned-resistance line near 1.3490 guards the USD/CAD pair’s immediate upside ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s December 2022 to February 2023 downside, near 1.3540 at the latest. Meanwhile, the USD/CAD bears may aim for the 200-Simple Moving Average (SMA), close to 1.3400 by the press time, as an immediate target during the quote’s fresh downside past the latest low of 1.3440. Following that, the monthly bottom surrounding 1.3260 will be in focus.
Analysis Of Situation Of The USD/INR Pair

Lower Oil Prices Will Support The Indian Rupee (INR)

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 21.02.2023 09:03
USD/INR is likely to continue moving north amid declining investors’ risk appetite. The demand for US government bonds is declining ahead of the FOMC minutes. One more 25 bps rate hike is expected from the RBI as the current inflation is beyond its tolerance limit. The USD/INR pair is approaching 82.80 as the US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded firmly amid the risk-off market mood. Investors are channelizing their funds into the USD Index amid rising uncertainty ahead of the US opening after an elongated weekend. The USD Index has delivered a breakout of the consolidation formed in a narrow range of 103.45-103.63 as the risk aversion theme is gaining traction. Also, anxiety among investors is accelerating as investors are anticipating hawkish commentary in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, which will release on Wednesday. The 10-year yields on US government bonds have climbed above 3.85%. S&P500 futures have extended their losses further as rising odds of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) might refresh recession fears. The release of the FOMC minutes will provide a detailed explanation behind the rate hike by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50-4.75% from the Fed. Apart from that, cues about interest rate guidance and current economic fundamentals will be keenly watched. On the Indian Rupee front, higher inflation is still advocating for further policy restriction by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Economists at ANZ Bank expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to deliver one more 25 basis points (bps) rate hike. A note from ANZ Bank stated, “January’s CPI inflation at 6.5% was much above the monetary policy committee’s tolerance limit, jeopardizing the RBI’s near-term inflation projections.” Meanwhile, oil prices have dropped significantly below $76.60 as investors are worried about economic projections. Also, the Chinese economy is not delivering recovery as expected, which is impacting the oil price. It is worth noting that India is one of the leading importers of oil and lower oil prices will support the Indian Rupee.  
US dollar pressured by Euro and Swiss franc. EUR and CHF supported by data and a rate hike

The USD/CHF Pair Remains On The Bull’s Radar

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 20.02.2023 08:50
USD/CHF holds lower ground after reversing from five-week high. Sluggish markets, off in US, Canada restrict immediate moves. Risk-negative headlines, hawkish Fed challenges the bearish bias. USD/CHF flirts with the intraday low surrounding 0.9240 amid early Monday in Europe. In doing so, the major currency pair remains pressured toward the previous resistance line from late November 2022. However, a light calendar and holiday in the US, as well as in Canada, restrict immediate moves of the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair. Better-than-forecast prints of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales followed the previously flashed upbeat readings of employment and output data and propelled the US Treasury bond yields, as well as the US Dollar. On the same line could be the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) comments and the risk-negative catalysts surrounding China, North Korea and Russia. However, Friday’s mixed comments from the Fed officials seemed to have probed the US Dollar bulls and triggered the USD/CHF pair’s U-turn from the multi-day high. That said, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman recently said, “We are seeing a lot of inconsistent data in economic conditions,” as reported by Reuters. On the contrary, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that they are seeing some progress on inflation with demand normalizing, as reported by Reuters. Elsewhere, North Korea fired two ballistic missiles toward Japan and renewed the fears that the hermit kingdom is up to something serious that can endanger the global economy, mainly due to the nature of the missiles fired as they both were termed as tactical nuclear attack weapons. However, both the missiles were down ahead of Japanese boundaries and allowed traders to take a sigh of relief even as Japan PM Fumio Kishida calls for the United Nations Security Council meeting to discuss the issues. On the same line, the latest meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and China's top diplomat Wang Yi seemed to have failed in restoring the US-China ties. The reason could be linked to a Chinese diplomat’s comments saying that the US must change course and repair the damage done to Sino-US ties by indiscriminate use of force. On the same line, US ambassador to the United Nations, Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said Sunday that China would cross a “red line” if the country decided to provide lethal military aid to Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses even as Wall Street closed mixed. It’s worth noting that the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose to the highest levels since early November in the last week and helped the US Dollar Index (DXY) to print a three-week uptrend, before retreating to 103.90 as of late. Moving ahead, light calendar and holidays in the key markets may offer a sluggish trading session ahead of Wednesday’s key Minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting. Following that, the second reading of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be important to forecast the USD/CHF moves. Technical analysis USD/CHF remains on the bull’s radar unless breaking below the three-month-old descending resistance line, now support line near 0.9230 at the latest.
If The Bank Of England Hike Interest Rates Again Later This Month Will Exert Downward Pressure On The EUR/GBP Cross

The EUR/GBP Pair Is Expected Limited Downside Movement

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 20.02.2023 08:46
EUR/GBP fades bounce off immediate horizontal support, 200-HMA. Sluggish oscillators suggest limited downside room but bulls need validation from 0.8930. Monthly low lures bears past 200-HMA buyers have a bumpy road to the north to track. EUR/GBP holds lower ground near 0.8880 during the early Monday morning in Europe. In doing so, the cross-currency pair fades bounce off the 200-HMA and eight-day-old horizontal support. Also teasing the pair sellers is the lower high formation, marked since February 07. However, the aforementioned support line, close to 0.8875 at the latest, precedes the 200-Hour Moving Average (HMA) level surrounding 0.8865, to put a floor under the EUR/GBP prices. In a case where the EUR/GBP pair drops below 0.8865, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the monthly low near the 0.8800 round figure can’t be ruled out. It’s worth noting, though, that January’s low near 0.8720 could challenge the pair sellers afterward. Meanwhile, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the EUR/GBP pair’s fall between February 03 and 14, near 0.8890 and 0.8910 in that order, could challenge the short-term upside of the pair. Following that, a downward-sloping resistance line from February 07, close to 0.8930 by the press time, will be the key as a clear break of the same towards the north might endanger the monthly peak of 0.8978. Overall, EUR/GBP is likely to grind lower amid mixed catalysts and sluggish prints of the MACD and RSI. Though, the downside room appears limited. EUR/GBP: Hourly chart Trend: Limited downside expected
Market Focus: European Data Releases, ECB Survey, US FOMC Minutes, and UK Bond Supply

The Kiwi Pair (NZD/USD) Portrays The Traders’ Cautious Mood Ahead Of The Key Reserve Bank Of New Zealand (RBNZ) Meeting

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 20.02.2023 08:40
NZD/USD struggles to extend the corrective bounce off six-week low. Sluggish sentiment, mixed headlines and US holiday challenge Kiwi pair buyers. RBNZ Shadow Board expects 0.50% rate hike but NZ FinMin cites inflation as the key catalysts. Fed hawks need confirmation from FOMC Minutes, second-tier data. NZD/USD seesaws around 0.6240 as it struggles to push back the bearish bias after a four-day losing streak, keeping the bounce off a six-week low during early Monday morning in Europe. In doing so, the Kiwi pair portrays the traders’ cautious mood ahead of the key Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy meeting and the Minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting. Earlier in Asia, the RBNZ's Shadow Board recommended 50 basis points (bps) of an increase in the benchmark cash rate by citing strong inflationary pressures. On the same line could be the latest comments from New Zealand (NZ) Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister (FinMin) Grant Robertson who said that the RBNZ has a responsibility to address inflation while also adding, “RBNZ needs to look through current events.” It’s worth noting that the flood in New Zealand joins recent downside economic indicators for the Pacific nation to probe the RBNZ hawks. Also challenging the NZD/USD bulls are the geopolitical fears emanating from the US-China tussles, recently about the Taiwan trade deal with Washington and Beijing’s ties with Russia. On a different page, upbeat US data and mixed comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials seemed to have triggered the NZD/USD pair’s corrective bounce off the multi-day low. Also allowing the Kiwi pair traders to push back the bears is the US holiday. Looking forward, natural calamities and the recent weakness in Auckland’s data may probe the RBNZ hawks. However, this week’s 0.50% rate hike is almost given and may not impress the NZD/USD bulls unless offering hints for further strong rate increases. Following the RBNZ meeting, the Fed Minutes will also be crucial for clear directions as the US central bank officials have recently praised the upbeat data surrounding inflation, Retail Sales and jobs. Technical analysis Sustained downside break of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 0.6275 by the press time, keeps NZD/USD bears hopeful of breaking the three-month-old support line, close to 0.6220 at the latest.
Australian dollar against US dollar - "It seems that the currency will soon hit a price above 0.68"

The Continuation Of Expansionary Monetary Policy By The People’s Bank Of China Will Strengthen The Australian Dollar

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 20.02.2023 08:36
AUD/USD has touched a high of 0.6900 as the USD Index has surrendered its morning gains. Persistent inflation in the United States has bolstered the odds of more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve ahead. The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia might remain hawkish for further guidance as inflation has still not peaked yet. AUD/USD has negated the downside break of the H&S pattern and has shifted into a bullish trajectory. AUD/USD touched the round-level resistance of 0.6900 in the early European session. The Aussie asset has been strengthened as investors have shrugged-off uncertainty associated with US-China tensions and the launch of three projectiles from North Korea near Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The US Dollar Index (DXY) has surrendered its entire gains added in the Asian session and is looking to continue its downside journey ahead. Meanwhile, the risk appetite theme has regained traction, which is supporting the risk-perceived assets. S&P500 futures have turned volatile ahead of the market holiday on account of Presidents’ Day. People’s Bank of China maintains the status quo on interest rates The Australian Dollar remained in action after the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) kept its monetary policy unchanged. An interest rate decision of unchanged policy was widely anticipated as the Chinese economy is focusing on accelerating the economic recovery after remaining bound by pandemic controls. The People’s Bank of China has kept one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) unchanged at 3.65% and 4.30% respectively. It is worth noting that Australia is a leading trading partner of China and the continuation of expansionary monetary policy by the People’s Bank of China will strengthen the Australian Dollar ahead. Fresh concerns for higher US Inflation call for more rates by the Fed Last week, a majority of economic indicators cleared that it would be early for the Federal Reserve to announce a win in the battle against stubborn inflation as it is set to surprise the market ahead. The United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) landed higher at 6.4% than the projections of 6.2%, Producer Price Index (PPI) released at 6.0% higher than the consensus of 5.4%. And, the release of the monthly Retail Sales data at 3.0% against the consensus of 1.8% was the last nail in the coffin, which cleared that consumer spending is gaining traction. A note from Goldman Sachs states the investment banking firm expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates three more times this year, lifting their estimates after data pointed to persistent inflation and a resilient labor market, as reported by Reuters. Spotlight shifts to Reserve Bank of Australia and Federal Reserve’s minutes This week, the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia and Federal Reserve’s and Federal Reserve will lead from the front for the power-pack action in the Aussie asset. Federal Reserve policymakers are aware of the persistent nature of the US inflation, which is why hawkish guidance is expected on interest rates. The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia policy announced in the first week of February resulted in a ninth consecutive interest rate hike to 3.35%. Inflationary pressures in the Australian economy have not softened yet amid solid consumer spending, which is bolstering the case of hawkish guidance on the monetary policy. Later this week, Australia’s Labor Cost Index (Q4) data will remain in focus. The economic data is seen at 3.4% vs. the prior release of 3.1% on an annual basis. And, the quarterly data is seen lower at 0.7% against the prior release of 1.0%. AUD/USD technical outlook AUD/USD has negated the downside break of the Head and Shoulder chart pattern formed on a four-hour scale. The responsive buying active from the market participants has pushed the Aussie asset above the neckline of the aforementioned chart pattern plotted from January 10 low at 0.6860. The asset has scaled above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6888, which indicates that the short-term trend is bullish now. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has rebounded into the 40.00-60.00 range, which indicates that the asset is no more bearish now
USD/CAD - Canadian economy added 41,400 jobs beating expectations

The USD/CAD Pair Remains On The Bull’s Radar

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 20.02.2023 08:33
USD/CAD remains pressured after retreating from six-week high. Upbeat oscillators, sustained trading beyond 50-DMA keep buyers hopeful. Convergence of 100-DMA, four-month-old descending resistance line challenge buyers. USD/CAD bulls take a breather around 1.3480, following the run-up to refresh the monthly high, as the upside momentum failed to cross the key resistance confluence the previous day. Even so, the Loonie pair remains on the buyer’s radar on early Monday as it defends the previous week’s upside break of the 50-DMA, close to 1.3465 at the latest. It’s worth mentioning that the 50-DMA breakout joins the bullish MACD signals, as well as the upbeat RSI (14), not overbought, to keep the USD/CAD buyers hopeful. That said, a one-week-old ascending support line, near 1.3440 by the press time, adds to the short-term downside filters for the USD/CAD pair traders to watch on the break of the 50-DMA. Following that, a three-month-old ascending support line, around 1.3280 as we write, becomes crucial to follow as it holds the key to the Loonie pair’s slump towards the 1.3000 psychological magnet. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of the 1.3520 resistance confluence enables the USD/CAD buyers to aim for the previous monthly high of 1.3685. In case where the quote remains firmer past 1.3685, the last December’s peak of 1.3705 may act as an extra check for the USD/CAD bulls before directing them to the October 2022 high surrounding 1.3980, as well as the 1.4000 round figure. To sum up, USD/CAD remains on the bull’s radar unless breaking 1.3440 support. USD/CAD: Daily chart Trend: Further upside expected
The USD/MXN Pair Could Then Aim To Surpass The February Monthly Swing High

Analysis Of The USD/MXN Pair: USD/MXN Remains Pressured

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 20.02.2023 08:28
USD/MXN takes offers to refresh intraday low, mildly offered near the lowest levels since April 2018. US Dollar retreat adds strength to the bearish bias amid sluggish session. Risk-off mood, downbeat Oil prices put a floor under the Mexican Peso price. FOMC Meeting Minutes, Mexican Q4 GDP eyed for fresh impulse. USD/MXN remains pressured around the lowest level in nearly five years as it drops to $18.33 during early Monday, keeping Friday’s fall to the multi-day bottom during a three-day downtrend. In doing so, the Mexican Peso (MXN) pair cheers the retreat in the US Dollar amid a light calendar and the US holidays. Adding strength to the lackluster moves could be the cautious mood ahead of this week’s top-tier data from the US and Mexico, as well as mixed headlines surrounding the geopolitical risks emanating from Russia, China and North Korea. Market sentiment dwindles as the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks take a breather ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes. Also, Japan’s calling of the United Nations (UN) Security Council meeting to address the threats issued by North Korea joins the recent tension between the US and China over Taiwan seems to weigh on the risk profile and put a floor under the US Dollar. On the other hand, an absence of US and Canadian traders allows the bond bears to take a breather and hence trigger the USD/MXN weakness. It’s worth noting that Banxico’s surprise 0.50% rate hike propelled the USD/MXN moves earlier in February. However, the USD/MXN traders will look for this week’s fourth quarter (Q4) Mexican Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, up for publishing on Friday, for clear directions. Should the Mexican economy marks welcome growth figures, the odds of witnessing the pair’s slump towards $18.00 can’t be ruled out. Also important to note is that the Mexican economy relies on Oil exports and the hopes of higher economic recovery in China keep energy buyers hopeful, which in turn weighs on the USD/MXN prices. Elsewhere, better-than-forecast prints of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales followed the previously flashed upbeat readings of employment and output data and propelled the US Treasury bond yields, as well as the US Dollar. On the same line could be the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) comments and the risk-negative catalysts mentioned above. However, the Fed’s pivot discussions aren’t off the table, which in turn highlights Wednesday’s Fed Minutes for clear directions. Technical analysis Unless providing a daily close beyond a 6.5-month-old descending resistance line, around $18.45 by the press time, USD/MXN buyers remain off the table
Analysis Of Situation Of The USD/INR Pair

The USD/INR Pair Is Likely To Decline Further

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 20.02.2023 08:25
USD/INR renews intraday low, after four-week uptrend, on technical breakdown. Downbeat oscillators add strength to the fall targeting 100-SMA, 200-SMA. Weekly descending trend line adds to the upside filters. USD/INR takes offers to refresh intraday low near 82.65 during the initial Indian trading session on Monday. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair justifies the early day’s downside break of a one-month-old ascending trend line to print the first daily loss after witnessing four consecutive weeks of a run-up. Not only the trend line breakdown but the bearish MACD signals and the downbeat RSI (14), not oversold, also signals the INR pair’s further downside towards the 100-SMA, close to 82.40 by the press time. However, the 200-SMA level surrounding the 82.00 round figure could challenge the USD/INR bears afterward. In a case where the USD/INR pair remains bearish past the 82.00 threshold, the late January’s swing high near 81.80 could act as the last defense of the pair buyers. On the flip side, recovery moves need to cross the previous support line from January 23, close to 82.75, to recall the USD/INR buyers. Even so, a one-week-old descending trend line could challenge the recovery moves near the 82.85 hurdle. Should the USD/INR bulls remain dominant past 82.85, an upward-sloping resistance line from February 07, close to 83.15 at the latest, may lure the pair buyers. Overall, USD/INR is likely to decline further but the downside room appears limited. USD/INR: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected
Central Banks and Inflation: Lessons from History and Current Realities

Generally Weaker Tone Around The Equity Markets Contributes To Capping The GBP/JPY Cross

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 17.02.2023 10:08
GBP/JPY regains positive traction on Friday and snaps a two-day losing streak. The uncertainty over the BoJ’s policy path weighs on the JPY and lends support. Speculations that the BoE’s rate hiking cycle is nearing the end caps the upside. The GBP/JPY cross attracts some buying near the 160.50 area on Friday and stalls this week's pullback from the YTD peak. The cross sticks to its gains around the 161.00 mark through the early European session and for now, seems to have snapped a two-day losing streak. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens across the board amid the uncertainty over the path of monetary policy under new Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, which, in turn, lends support to the GBP/JPY cross. Investors have been speculating that Ueda will dismantle the yield curve control easing mechanism. That said, data released this week showed the world’s third-largest economy grew at a slower-than-expected pace in the fourth quarter and making it prudent for the BoJ to stick to its ultra-lose monetary policy stance. That said, any meaningful upside for the GBP/JPY cross seems elusive, at least for the time being, amid expectations that the Bank of England's (BoE) current rate-hiking cycle might be nearing the end. The bets were lifted by softer-than-expected UK consumer inflation figures on Wednesday, which might have eased pressure on the UK central bank to tighten its monetary policy more aggressively. This, to a larger extent, offsets the better-than-expected UK Retail Sales figures for January and might hold back bulls from placing fresh bets. Apart from this, a generally weaker tone around the equity markets - amid looming recession risks - benefits the safe-haven JPY and further contributes to capping the GBP/JPY cross. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before positioning for the resumption of the recent positive trend witnessed over the past two weeks or so. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to register first weekly gains in the previous three. Technical levels to watch remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators
Bank of England is expected to hike the rate by 25bp. Kelvin Wong talks Euro against British pound

The Bank Of England's (Boe) Current Rate-Hiking Cycle Might Be Nearing The End And This Acts As A Tailwind For The EUR/GBP Cross

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 17.02.2023 10:01
EUR/GBP gains positive traction for the third straight day and climbs to over a one-week high. The upbeat UK Retail Sales for January fail to impress the GBP bulls or provide any impetus. Bets for additional jumbo rate hikes by the ECB support prospects for further near-term gains. The EUR/GBP cross builds on this week's goodish bounce from the 0.8800 mark and edges higher for the third successive day on Friday. Spot prices hold steady above the 0.8900 round figure through the early European session and react little to the latest UK macro data. The UK Office for National Statistics reported that domestic Retail Sales grew 0.5% in January against consensus estimates for a 0.3% fall. Furthermore, sales excluding fuel also surpassed market expectations and rose by 0.4% during the reported month. The better-than-expected prints, however, were offset by a downward revision of the previous month's already weaker readings. This, in turn, fails to provide any meaningful impetus to the British Pound or move the EUR/GBP cross. That said, the softer UK consumer inflation figures released earlier this week fueled expectations that the Bank of England's (BoE) current rate-hiking cycle might be nearing the end. This continues to weigh on the Sterling and acts as a tailwind for the EUR/GBP cross. That said, broad-based US Dollar strength exerts some follow-through downward pressure on the shared currency. This, in turn, holds back bulls from placing aggressive bets and caps the upside for the cross, at least for now. Meanwhile, bets for additional jumbo rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) might contribute to the Euro's relative outperformance against its British counterpart. This, in turn, supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move for the EUR/GBP cross. Hence, some follow-through strength back towards the 0.8975-0.8980 region, or the highest level since September 2022 touched earlier this month, looks like a distinct possibility. Technical levels to watch remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators
Market Focus: European Data Releases, ECB Survey, US FOMC Minutes, and UK Bond Supply

The Geopolitical Fears Have A Double Impact On The Kiwi Pair (NZD/USD)

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 17.02.2023 08:54
NZD/USD drops for the fourth consecutive day as bears poke January’s low. Fears of inflation peak in New Zealand, geopolitical concerns probe RBNZ hawks. US data, yields join upbeat Fed talks to keep rate hike concerns on the table and propel US Dollar. Risk catalysts can entertain traders ahead of next week’s FOMC Minutes, RBNZ. NZD/USD bears keep the reins for the fourth consecutive day as the quote drops to the lowest level since early January, following a U-turn from the weekly top on Tuesday. That said, the Kiwi pair sellers attack 0.6220-15 support during early Friday in Europe. Earlier in Asia, New Zealand Financial Minister Robertson said events will exacerbate a slowdown in the economy and that is evidence that inflation has peaked. The same challenges the hawkish bias surrounding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) ahead of the next week’s monetary policy meeting. On the other hand, a slew of US statistics concerning inflation, employment and output push back the Fed’s policy pivot talks and help the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials to suggest higher rates. The fashion could be witnessed in the latest comments from the Fed officials and the FEDWATCH tool, observed via Reuters. That said, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and St. Louis Federal Reserve's James Bullard were the latest to sound the hawkish alarm. It should be noted that the recent fears of more US-China tussles over the spy balloon and Taiwan also bolster the US Dollar’s safe-haven demand, which in turn weighs on the NZD/USD price. The geopolitical fears have a double impact on the Kiwi pair due to New Zealand’s trade ties with China. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures dropped half a percent intraday to 4,086 while poking the weekly low after falling the most in a month on Thursday. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rise to a fresh high since December 30, 2022, whereas the two-year US Treasury bond also renews its highest levels since November 2022. Moving ahead, the next week’s monetary policy meeting minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision will be crucial for the NZD/USD traders to watch for clear directions. Market forecasts suggest another 0.50% rate hike from the RBNZ before teasing the policy pivot. Technical analysis NZD/USD pair’s sustained downside break of the previous support line from mid-November 2022, now resistance around 0.6300, keeps the pair bears hopeful. Adding strength to the downside bias are the bearish MACD signals and the lower high formation on the daily chart. However, a daily closing below a 2.5-month-long support line, currently around 0.6220-15, becomes necessary for the bears to keep the reins, a break of which can highlight the 200-DMA of around 0.6175.
Uncertain Path Ahead: Will Silver Regain Historic Highs?

Analysis Of Silver: The Bright Metal Refreshed The Multi-Day Low

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 17.02.2023 08:47
Silver price refreshes 11-week low during five-day losing streak. 100-DMA breakdown, bearish MACD signals favor sellers around multi-day low. Oversold RSI hints at corrective bounce, highlights 200-DMA, $20.00 as key supports. Silver price (XAG/USD) holds lower ground at the 2.5-month bottom surrounding $21.45 amid the early hours of Friday morning in Europe. The bright metal refreshed the multi-day low on breaking the 100-DMA, as well as taking clues from the bearish MACD signals. However, the oversold RSI (14) conditions suggest limited downside room for the XAG/USD. As a result, the 200-DMA level surrounding $21.00 appears putting a short-term floor under the Silver price. In a case where the XAG/USD drops below $21.00, a convergence of the previous resistance line from March 2022 and an ascending trend line from the last September, close to the $20.00 psychological magnet, will be a tough nut to crack for the Silver sellers. It should be noted that the quote’s weakness past $20.00 makes it vulnerable to test the previous yearly bottom marked in September at around $17.55. Read next: USD/JPY Is Trading Close To 134.00, EUR/USD Is Remaining Above $1.07| FXMAG.COM Alternatively, XAG/USD rebound remains elusive unless crossing the 100-DMA level near the $22.00 round figure. Following that, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements of the metal’s fall between March and September of 2022, respectively near $22.30 and $23.35, could act as additional upside filters for the Silver buyers to watch. Above all, the monthly high of $24.63 acts as the last defense of the XAG/USD bears. Silver price: Daily chart Trend: Limited downside expected
Australian dollar against US dollar: USD may rise on the back of the Republicans and Democrats negotiations

The Path Of Least Resistance For The AUD/USD Pair Is To The Downside

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 17.02.2023 08:43
AUD/USD remains under some selling pressure for the third successive day on Friday. Hawkish Fed expectations, recession fears underpin the buck and weigh on the major. Technical selling below the 50-day SMA further contributes to the ongoing downfall. The AUD/USD pair extends this week's retracement slide from the 0.7030 area and continues losing ground for the third successive day on Friday. The downward trajectory drags spot prices to the lowest level since January 6 during the Asian session and is sponsored by broad-based US Dollar strength. In fact, the USD Index, which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, hits a fresh six-week high amid firming expectations for further policy tightening by the Fed. Investors seem convinced that the US central bank will stick to its hawkish stance in the wake of stubbornly high inflation. Moreover, the incoming upbeat US macro data points to an economy that remains resilient despite rising borrowing costs. This, along with the recent hawkish remarks by several FOMC members, suggests that the Fed will continue to hike interest rates. The markets are now pricing in at least a 25 bps lift-off at each of the next two FOMC policy meetings in March and May. This, in turn, pushes the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note to its highest level since late December and is seen underpinning the buck. Meanwhile, worries about economic headwinds stemming from rapidly rising interest rates weigh on investors' sentiment. This is evident from a weaker tone around the equity markets, which further benefits the safe-haven USD and drives flows away from the risk-sensitive Aussie. Apart from the aforementioned fundamental factors, the AUD/USD pair's downfall could also be attributed to some technical selling following the overnight break below the 50-day SMA. This comes on the back of the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the 0.7000 psychological mark and might have already set the stage for further losses. Moreover, bearish oscillators on the daily chart add credence to the near-term negative outlook. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair is to the downside. In the absence of any relevant market-moving economic data, any attempted bounce will now be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the 50-day SMA support breakpoint.
Decline of Canadian retails sales plays in favour of holding the rates by Bank of Canada

Further Upside Movement Of The Loonie Pair (USD/CAD) Is Expected

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 17.02.2023 08:39
USD/CAD rises to the highest level in a month, braces for the biggest weekly gains since early December. Successful break of short-term key resistance lines, 200-SMA directs bulls towards 61.8% Fibonacci ratio. Sellers should remain cautious beyond four-day-old support line. USD/CAD takes the bids to a fresh monthly high near 1.3490 during early Friday. In doing so, the Loonie pair rises for the fourth consecutive day while preparing for the biggest weekly run-up since early December 2022. That said, the USD/CAD bulls cheer the upside break of a 12-day-old ascending trend line and one-month-old resistance line, now support, to keep buyers hopeful. Also favoring the USD/CAD bulls is the quote’s successful trading above the 200-SMA. Given the aforementioned technical breakouts and bullish MACD signals, the USD/CAD pair is well-set to poke the mid-January swing high surrounding 1.3520. The same encompasses the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s January-February downturn. In a case where the USD/CAD remains firmer past 1.3520, the 1.3600 round figure may act as an intermediate halt before highlighting the previous monthly high of 1.3685 for the pair buyers. Read next: USD/JPY Is Trading Close To 134.00, EUR/USD Is Remaining Above $1.07| FXMAG.COM On the flip side, the 12-day-old previous resistance line and a downward-sloping trend line from January 19 put a floor under the USD/CAD prices of around 1.3480 and 1.3455 in that order. Following that, the 200-SMA and an ascending support line from Tuesday, respectively near 1.3400 and 1.3390, could act as the last defense of the USD/CAD buyers. USD/CAD: Four-hour chart Trend: Further upside expected remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators
The USD/INR Traders Seem To Witness Additional Downside Movement

Oil Price Weakness And The Reserve Bank Of India’s (RBI) Hawkish Concerns Seem Challenging The USD/INR Bulls

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 17.02.2023 08:38
USD/INR clings to mild gains during the first positive daily performance in three. Upbeat US data, hawkish Fed talks propel Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar. Sluggish Oil price, mixed sentiment in Asia fail to help Indian Rupee in extending previous gains. Light calendar ahead of next week’s FOMC Minutes can keep buyers hopeful. USD/INR remains mildly bid around 82.75-80, after a gap-up opening to 82.80, amid the broad US Dollar strength during early Friday. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair snaps a two-day losing streak amid mostly downbeat sentiment. US Dollar Index (DXY) grinds near the six-week top surrounding 104.30, marked earlier in Asia, as it cheers the hawkish concerns about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move amid strong US data and upbeat comments from the Fed policymakers. Producer Price Index (PPI) for January gained major attention by rising the most since June with 0.7% MoM figure. Also positive for the USD/INR pair was the improvement in the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended on February 10, 194K versus 200K expected and 195K prior. On the contrary, a slump in the Housing Starts for January and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for February seemed to have gained a little attention. Following the data, the FEDWATCH tool, observed via Reuters, suggests that the interest rate futures market shows US rates could peak close to 5.25% by July before dropping to 5.0% by the end of the year. The same signals a higher policy pivot than the 5.10% peak conveyed by the Fed in the December meeting, which in turn hints at a few more rate hikes from the US central bank and favors the US Dollar. It should be noted that Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester recently teased the recession woes while repeating the previous defense of the highest rates. Before that, St. Louis Federal Reserve's James Bullard bolstered the hawkish Fed bias while saying, “Continued policy rate increases can help lock in a disinflationary trend during 2023, even with ongoing growth and strong labor markets, by keeping inflation expectations low.” Other than the Upbeat US data, Fed bets and hawkish comments from the Fed policymakers, the fears emanating from China also weigh on the sentiment and underpin the USD/INR rebound. That said, US President Joe Biden fired shots at his Chinese counterpart while conveying the expectations for a talk with the Chinese leader, during an interview with NBC News. “I think the last thing that Xi wants is to fundamentally rip the relationship with the United States and with me," said US President Biden per Reuters. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures mark 0.30% intraday losses to 4,086 while poking the weekly low after falling the most in a month on Thursday. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rise to a fresh high since December 30, 2022, whereas the two-year US Treasury bond also renews the highest levels since November 2022, making rounds to 3.88% and 4.68% in that order. It’s worth mentioning that the Oil price weakness and the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) hawkish concerns seem challenging the USD/INR bulls amid a light calendar ahead of the next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting minutes. Technical analysis A sustained bounce off the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 82.60 by the press time, keeps USD/INR buyers hopeful of crossing the four-month-old resistance line near the 83.00 round figure.
SNB stands firm in the face of market turbulence with 50bp rate hike

Swiss Q4 Industrial Production Will Be Important For The USD/CHF Pair

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 17.02.2023 08:33
USD/CHF takes the bids to refresh weekly top during four-day winning streak. Hawkish Fed bets, upbeat US data and strong yields underpin US Dollar run-up. Risk-off mood adds strength to the upside bias ahead of Swiss Q4 Industrial Production. USD/CHF pleases bulls around 0.9280-85 as it rises for the fourth consecutive day during early Friday. In doing so, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair follows the general US Dollar strength amid a light calendar ahead of the fourth quarter (Q4) Industrial Production for Switzerland. Be it strong US data or the geopolitical risks emanating from China, not to forget hawkish Fed talks and strong US Treasury bond yields, the US Dollar has it all to justify the latest rise. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) takes the bids to refresh a six-week high near 104.30 at the latest. Starting with the US data, Producer Price Index (PPI) for January gained major attention as it jumped the most since June with 0.7% MoM figure. Also positive for the pair was the improvement in the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended on February 10, 194K versus 200K expected and 195K prior. On the contrary, a slump in the Housing Starts for January and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for February seemed to have gained a little attention. The upbeat data allowed the FEDWATCH tool, observed via Reuters, to suggest that the interest rate futures market shows US rates could peak close to 5.25% by July before dropping to 5.0% by the end of the year. The same signals a higher policy pivot than the 5.10% peak conveyed by the Fed in the December meeting, which in turn hints at a few more rate hikes from the US central bank and favors the US Dollar. Recently, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester teased the recession woes while repeating the previous defense of the highest rates. Before that, St. Louis Federal Reserve's James Bullard bolstered the hawkish Fed bias while saying, “Continued policy rate increases can help lock in a disinflationary trend during 2023, even with ongoing growth and strong labor markets, by keeping inflation expectations low.” On a different page, the fresh US-China tension and Russia’s refrain from stepping back when it comes to attacking Ukraine also weigh on the risk appetite and fuel the USD/CHF pair, due to the US Dollar’s safe-haven demand. That said, US President Joe Biden fired shots at his Chinese counterpart while conveying the expectations for a talk with the Chinese leader, during an interview with NBC News. “I think the last thing that Xi wants is to fundamentally rip the relationship with the United States and with me," said US President Biden per Reuters. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures dropped 0.30% to 4,086 while poking the weekly low marked the previous day by the press time. In doing so, the US stock futures remain depressed after falling the most in a month on Thursday. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rise to a fresh high since December 30, 2022, up five basis points to 3.896% by the press time. On the same line, two-year US Treasury bond yields print mild gains to end Thursday around 4.64%, the highest levels since November 2022, making rounds 4.679% at the latest. Read next: USD/JPY Is Trading Close To 134.00, EUR/USD Is Remaining Above $1.07| FXMAG.COM Moving on, Swiss Q4 Industrial Production, prior 5.2% QoQ, will be important for the USD/CHF pair traders to watch clear directions. However, the bulls are less likely to relinquish control amid the hawkish Fed bias. Technical analysis A successful upside break of a three-month-old resistance line, now support around 0.9235, keeps USD/CHF buyers hopeful.
Technical analysis of Silver by Alexandros Yfantis - May 5th

The Silver Price May Remain Depressed

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 16.02.2023 08:45
Silver price bounces off 10-week low to snap three-day downtrend. Cautious optimism, pullback in yields underpin US Dollar’s retreat from multi-day high and favor XAG/USD buyers. China, second-tier US data may entertain Silver traders ahead of next week’s FOMC Minutes. Silver price (XAG/USD) retreats from intraday high but remains mildly bid near $21.70 during the early hours of Thursday’s European session. The bright metal’s latest pullback, which marks the first daily loss in four, could be the resettlement of the previous bias as Western traders return to their desks. However, a lack of major data/events joins the cautious optimism backed by Chinese news to put a floor under the XAG/USD price. The risk profile, however, improves as Chinese President Xi Jinping shows readiness to deepen industrial and investment cooperation with Asia. On the same line were the upbeat comments from Chinese Finance Minister Liu Kun who said that the 2023 fiscal revenue will grow this year, though the growth rate will not be too high, per the Chinese state media. It should be noted that the strong US data bolstered the hawkish Fed bias and weighed on the Silver price to print a 10-week low the previous day. Among the key data, US Retail Sales for January and the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for February gained major attention. Following the data, the market’s bets on the Fed’s next moves, as per the FEDWATCH tool of Reuters, suggest the US central bank’s benchmark rate is to peak in July around 5.25% versus the December Federal Reserve prediction of 5.10% top rate. Amid these plays, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains around 4,165 while extending the previous day’s gains whereas the US 10-year Treasury bond yields retreat following the run-up to a 1.5-month high marked on Wednesday, down two basis points to near 3.78% by the press time. Further, the US Dollar Index (DXY) prints 0.15% intraday loss while easing to 103.70 at the latest, after rising to the 1.5-month high the previous day. Given the light calendar for the day and the week, the Silver price may remain depressed while the second-tier US data concerning the housing market, industrial activity and producer prices can entertain traders. However, major attention will be given to the next week’s Minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. Technical analysis Despite the corrective bounce amid oversold RSI (14) on the daily chart, the Silver price remains below the 100-DMA hurdle, currently around the $22.00 round figure, which in turn keeps the XAG/USD sellers hopeful to visiting the 200-DMA level surrounding $21.00.
US dollar pressured by Euro and Swiss franc. EUR and CHF supported by data and a rate hike

A Light Calendar May Allow The USD/CHF Pair To Remain Depressed

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 16.02.2023 08:37
USD/CHF clings to mild losses while snapping two-day winning streak. Retreat in US Treasury bond yields, DXY joins failure to cross six-week-old resistance to trigger pullback moves. China, US debt-ceiling talks seem underpinning cautious optimism but hawkish Fed bets keep buyers hopeful. USD/CHF prints mild losses around 0.9225 as it portrays the first daily fall in three during early Thursday in Europe. In doing so, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair benefits from the broad US Dollar pullback amid inactive markets while consolidating the latest gains. Market sentiment improves as Chinese President Xi Jinping shows readiness to deepen industrial and investment cooperation with Asia. Following him were upbeat comments from Chinese Finance Minister Liu Kun who said that the 2023 fiscal revenue will grow this year, though the growth rate will not be too high, per the Chinese state media. On a different page, the chatter surrounding the US debt-ceiling crisis, as warned by the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Wednesday per Reuters, seemed to have raised hopes of a faster solution to the big problem in the upcoming days and probed the US Treasury bond yields’ upside. The same joined a lack of major data/events to challenge the US Dollar Index (DXY) that retreat drops 0.20% to 103.65 at the latest, after rising to the 1.5-month high the previous day. It should be noted that the strong US data propelled the US bond yield and the greenback the previous day amid escalating hopes of more rate hikes from the Fed. On Wednesday, US Retail Sales growth jumped to 3.0% YoY in January versus 1.8% expected and -1.1% prior. Further, The Retail Sales ex-Autos grew by 2.3% in the same period, compared to analysts' estimate of +0.8%. On the same line, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for February improved to a three-month high of -5.8 versus -18.0 expected and -32.9 market forecasts. Alternatively, the US Industrial Production marked 0.0% MoM figures for January, compared to analysts’ estimate of 0.5% and -0.7% previous readings, but failed to push back the hawkish bias surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move. That said, the market’s bets on the Fed’s next moves, as per the FEDWATCH tool of Reuters, suggest the US central bank’s benchmark rate is to peak in July around 5.25% versus the December Federal Reserve prediction of 5.10% top rate. Read next: USD/JPY Is Above 133.30, GBP/USD Droped Form $1.21 to $1.20, The Aussie Pair Is Trading Below $0.69| FXMAG.COM Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains around 4,165 while extending the previous day’s gains whereas the US 10-year Treasury bond yields retreat following the run-up to a 1.5-month high marked on Wednesday, down two basis points to near 3.78% by the press time. Looking ahead, a light calendar may allow the USD/CHF to remain depressed while the second-tier US data concerning the housing market, industrial activity and producer prices can entertain traders ahead of the next week’s Minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. Technical analysis A downward-sloping trend line from January 06 joins the 50-DMA to highlight 0.9250 as the key upside hurdle for the USD/CHF buyers to cross before taking control. Even so, bullish MACD signals and a steady RSI (14) line hints at the pair’s upside potential.
InstaForex's Ralph Shedler talks Euro against Japanese yen

The USD/JPY Pair Remains On The Bull’s Radar

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 16.02.2023 08:34
USD/JPY snaps three-day uptrend as it retreats from six-week high. Convergence of one-month-old previous support line, ascending trend line from the last Friday challenges bears. Firmer oscillators add strength to the upside bias while 200-SMA acts as additional downside filter. USD/JPY prints the first loss-making day in four as bulls take a breather around the 1.5-month high during early Thursday. In doing so, the Yen pair flirts with the 133.60 support confluence heading into the European session. Although the overbought RSI (14) triggered the USD/JPY retreat, a convergence of the resistance-turned-support line from January 18 and a one-week-old ascending trend line challenges the Yen pair sellers around 133.60. On the same line are the bullish MACD signals and the pair’s higher-low formation on the Daily chart. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s further recovery needs validation from the 134.00 round figure to challenge the latest high of 134.35. Following that, the previous peak of around 134.80 and the December 2022 top near 138.20 will be in focus. On the flip side, a clear break of the 133.60 support confluence can quickly drag the USD/JPY price towards the 200-Simple Moving Average (SMA) support of 130.70. Read next: USD/JPY Is Above 133.30, GBP/USD Droped Form $1.21 to $1.20, The Aussie Pair Is Trading Below $0.69| FXMAG.COM Should the quote remains weak past 130.70, the 130.00 round figure and the previous weekly bottom surrounding 129.80 could please the USD/JPY bears before directing them to the one-month-old ascending support line, close to 129.00 by the press time. Overall, USD/JPY remains on the bull’s radar despite the latest pullback from the multi-day high. USD/JPY: Four-hour chart Trend: Limited downside expected remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators
USD/CAD - Canadian economy added 41,400 jobs beating expectations

A Modest US Dollar Weakness Weighs On The USD/CAD Pair

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 16.02.2023 08:31
USD/CAD meets with some supply and extends the overnight pullback from the weekly high. An uptick in oil prices underpins the Loonie and exerts pressure amid modest USD weakness. Hawkish Fed expectations should help limit deeper USD losses and lend support to the major. The USD/CAD pair comes under some selling during the Asian session on Thursday and moves away from the weekly high, around the 1.3440 region touched the previous day. The pair currently trades around the 1.3380-1.3375 region and is pressured by a combination of factors. Crude oil prices gain some positive traction and snap a three-day losing streak amid hopes for a strong recovery in fuel demand. In fact, both the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast a rebound in crude demand later this year. This helps offset a substantial rise in the US crude inventories and acts as a tailwind for the black liquid, which, in turn, underpins the commodity-linked Loonie. Apart from this, a modest US Dollar weakness weighs on the USD/CAD pair. In fact, the USD Index, which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, extends the overnight pullback from a six-week high amid retreating US Treasury bond yields. This, along with a generally positive tone around the equity markets, is seen denting demand for the safe-haven buck. That said, the prospects for further policy tightening by the Fed should limit the downside for the US bond yields and the USD. This, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for any further depreciating move for the USD/CAD pair. Investors seem convinced that the US central bank will continue to hike interest rates in the wake of stubbornly high inflation. The bets were lifted by the US CPI report and hawkish comments by several Fed policymakers on Tuesday. Furthermore, the upbeat US monthly Retail Sales figures released on Wednesday indicated that the economy remains resilient despite rising borrowing costs. This should allow the Fed to stick to its hawkish stance for longer and supports prospects for the emergence of some USD dip-buying. Market participants now look forward to the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), due later during the early North American session. This, along with the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment, will influence the Greenback. Apart from this, traders will take cues from oil price dynamics to grab short-term opportunities around the USD/CAD pair.
The Indian Rupee Pair Takes Clues From The Receding Fears Of Hawkish Fed Rate Moves

The USD/INR Pair Is Epected A Limited Downside Movement

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 16.02.2023 08:30
USD/INR extends pullback from four-month-old resistance line amid sluggish markets. US Dollar pares gains around six-week high as Treasury bond yields retreat. China-linked headlines also weigh on prices amid cautious optimism in Asia. USD/INR takes offers to refresh the intraday low near 82.65 while extending the previous day’s U-turn from the short-term key trend line resistance during early Thursday. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair benefits from the mildly positive sentiment in Asia, as well as the US Dollar’s pullback from a six-week high marked on Wednesday. Risk appetite improves in Asia, despite looming Fed concerns and mixed headlines from China, not to forget the US debt ceiling woes. The reason could be linked to a retreat in the US Treasury bond yields. Earlier in the day, China President Xi Jinping crossed wires while showing readiness to deepen industrial and investment cooperation with Asia. Following him were upbeat comments from Chinese Finance Minister Liu Kun who said that the 2023 fiscal revenue will grow this year, though the growth rate will not be too high, per the Chinese state media. Elsewhere, fears of witnessing the US debt-ceiling crisis, as warned by the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Wednesday per Reuters, suggested a faster solution to the big problem in the upcoming days and probed the US Treasury bond yields’ upside. Amid these plays, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains around 4,165 while extending the previous day’s gains whereas the US 10-year Treasury bond yields retreat following the run-up to a 1.5-month high marked on Wednesday, down two basis points to near 3.78% by the press time. It’s worth noting that the recently firmer Oil prices and the US-data-backed hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed) can probe the USD/INR bears ahead of the second-tier US data concerning the housing market, industrial activity and producer prices.   Read next: USD/JPY Is Above 133.30, GBP/USD Droped Form $1.21 to $1.20, The Aussie Pair Is Trading Below $0.69| FXMAG.COM Technical analysis USD/INR portrays a clear U-turn from a downward-sloping resistance line from October 19, poking the 10-DMA support amid easing the bullish bias of the MACD by the press time. With this, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair is likely declining toward a three-week-old ascending support line, close to 82.50 by the press time. However, the USD/INR bears should remain worried unless witnessing a clear downside break of the 50-DMA support of 82.24. Meanwhile, the USD/INR recovery needs validation from the four-month-old descending trend line, around the 83.00 round figure at the latest, to recall the pair buyers. USD/INR: Daily chart Trend: Limited downside expected
Australian dollar - the sharp drop can be attributed to technical factors and hawkish Fed

The Aussie Pair (AUD/USD) Is Expected A Limited Recovery

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 16.02.2023 08:26
AUD/USD rebounds from 0.6865-70 support confluence to consolidate biggest daily loss in two weeks. Convergence of head-and-shoulders’ neckline, two-month-old ascending trend line challenges bears. Buyers need validation from 21-DMA to retake control. AUD/USD grinds near intraday high surrounding 0.6915 as it reverses the losses post Australian employment data release during early European morning on Thursday. In doing so, the Aussie pair portrays a recovery move from the 0.6865-70 support confluence that encompasses the lower line of the six-week-old head-and-shoulders (H&S) bearish chart pattern and a two-month-old ascending trend line. It’s worth noting, however, that the bearish MACD signals and the steady RSI (14) line join the Aussie pair’s sustained trading below the 21-DMA to challenge the bullish bias unless the quote rises past the immediate DMA hurdle surrounding the 0.7000 psychological magnet. Even so, the weekly near 0.7030 and the monthly peak of 0.7157 could challenge the AUD/USD bulls afterward. In a case where the AUD/USD buyers remain in the driver’s seat past 0.7157, the May 2022 high near 0.7285 will be on their radars. On the contrary, a successful downside break of 0.6865 key support level is necessary for the Aussie pair bears to keep the reins. Following that, the 200-DMA surrounding 0.6800 and the late 2022 low near 0.6630 may act as validation points during the theoretical south-run targeting the 0.6500 round figure. Overall, AUD/USD remains bearish but the downside move needs validation from 0.6865. AUD/USD: Daily chart Trend: Limited recovery expected remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators
Nasdaq 100 posted a new one year high. S&P 500 ended the day unchanged

The S&P 500 Futures Print Mild Gains Around 4,165

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 16.02.2023 08:24
Market sentiment improves during a sluggish session, amid mixed headlines. Upbeat comments from China President Xi, Finance Minister Liu Kun add to the risk-on mood. Concerns surrounding US debt ceiling expiration probes US Dollar bulls. Strong US data underpins upbeat Treasury bond yields and US Dollar, despite recent pullback. Risk profile improves during early Thursday as headlines from China allow traders to pare the previous day’s losses amid a dicey session. Even so, the hawkish concerns surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed), backed by the strong US data, keep the bears hopeful. That said, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains around 4,165 while extending the previous day’s gains whereas the US 10-year Treasury bond yields retreat following the run-up to a 1.5-month high marked on Wednesday, down one basis point to near 3.80% by the press time. Earlier in the day, China President Xi Jinping crossed wires while showing readiness to deepen industrial and investment cooperation with Asia. “Willing to share ultra-large-scale markets, complete industrial systems and advanced technologies with central Asian countries,” said China’s Xi. Following him were upbeat comments from Chinese Finance Minister Liu Kun who said that the 2023 fiscal revenue will grow this year, though the growth rate will not be too high, per the Chinese state media. On the same line were fears of witnessing the US debt-ceiling crisis, as warned by the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Wednesday per Reuters, which in turn suggests a faster solution to the big problem in the upcoming days. It’s worth noting that Wall Street managed to close with mild gains only because of the day-end corrective rebound while the stocks in the Asia-Pacific region trade mixed by the press time, which in turn suggests a cautious mood in the market. On Wednesday, US Retail Sales growth jumped to 3.0% YoY in January versus 1.8% expected and -1.1% prior. Further, The Retail Sales ex-Autos grew by 2.3% in the same period, compared to analysts' estimate of +0.8%. On the same line, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for February improved to a three-month high of -5.8 versus -18.0 expected and -32.9 market forecasts. Alternatively, the US Industrial Production marked 0.0% MoM figures for January, compared to analysts’ estimate of 0.5% and -0.7% previous readings, but failed to push back the hawkish bias surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move.   Read next: USD/JPY Is Above 133.30, GBP/USD Droped Form $1.21 to $1.20, The Aussie Pair Is Trading Below $0.69| FXMAG.COM Following the US data, the market’s bets on the Fed’s next moves, as per the FEDWATCH tool of Reuters, suggest the US central bank’s benchmark rate is to peak in July around 5.25% versus the December Federal Reserve prediction of 5.10% top rate. Looking ahead, the second-tier US data concerning the housing market, industrial activity and producer prices may entertain traders. Also read: Forex Today: US Dollar strength continues amid resilient American economy      
Market Focus: European Data Releases, ECB Survey, US FOMC Minutes, and UK Bond Supply

NZD/USD Pair Is Likely To Remain Bearish Trend

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 16.02.2023 08:18
NZD/USD picks up bids to probe two-day downtrend near six-week low. Support-turned-resistance line from early January guards immediate upside. 200-SMA appears a tough nut to crack for bulls, sellers can aim for 2023 bottom. Downbeat oscillators, sustained trading below the key technical levels favor sellers. NZD/USD renews intraday high near 0.6290 as it bounces off a 1.5-month low marked the previous day during Thursday’s mid-Asian session. In doing so, the Kiwi pair takes clues from the nearly oversold RSI (14) to portray a corrective bounce after declining in the last two consecutive days, not to forget mentioning that it posted the biggest daily loss in two weeks on Wednesday. It should, however, be noted that the recovery moves need to cross the six-week-old previous support line, now resistance around 0.6400, to convince intraday buyers. Even so, a fortnight-old descending trend line and the 200-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA), respectively near 0.6365 and 0.6385 in that order, could challenge the pair’s further upside. In a case where the NZD/USD pair remains firmer past 0.6385, the 0.6400 could act as a validation point for the rally targeting the monthly peak surrounding 0.6540. On the contrary, pullback moves should break the 0.6250 horizontal support to recall the NZD/USD bears. Following that, the previous monthly low of 0.6190 and late November 2022 bottom around 0.6155 will gain the pair seller’s attention. Overall, NZD/USD is likely to remain bearish despite the latest rebound. NZD/USD: Four-hour chart Trend: Bearish remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators
Central Banks and Inflation: Lessons from History and Current Realities

Analysis Of Movement Of The GBP/JPY Cross Pair

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 15.02.2023 08:59
GBP/JPY meets with a fresh supply on Wednesday and erodes a part of the overnight gains. The softer UK CPI print eases pressure on the BoE to tighten further and weighs on the GBP. The risk-off mood underpins the safe-haven JPY and also contributes to the intraday decline. The GBP/JPY cross comes under some selling pressure on Wednesday and snaps a two-day winning streak to a fresh YTD peak, around the 162.15-162.20 region touched the previous day. The cross remains depressed through the early European session and hits a fresh daily low, around the 161.15 area, following the release of the UK consumer inflation figures. In fact, the UK Office for National Statistics reported that the headline CPI declined by 0.6% in January, more than the 0.4% fall anticipated. Adding to this, the yearly rate decelerated from 10.5% in December to 10.1% during the reported month, again missing estimates for a reading of 10.3%. Moreover, Core CPI, which excludes seasonally volatile products such as food and energy, came in at 5.8% YoY as compared to the 6.3% previous and 6.2% expected. The data points to signs of easing inflationary pressure and could allow the Bank of England to slow the pace of its policy-tightening, which, in turn, weighs on the British Pound. The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, is underpinned by speculations that Kazuo Ueda, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) governor candidate, will dismantle the yield curve control. This, along with the risk-off mood, benefits the safe-haven JPY and exerts pressure on the GBP/JPY cross. Read next: GBP/USD Pair Rose Sharply Above $1.22, EUR/USD Pair Also Rose| FXMAG.COM The aforementioned fundamental backdrop favours bearish traders and suggests that the recent move-up witnessed over the past two weeks or so has run out of steam. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the 161.00 mark before confirming the negative outlook and positioning for any further intraday depreciating move.
The Commodities Feed: US announces SPR purchase

Crude Oil Bears The Burden Of The Broad US Dollar Recovery

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 15.02.2023 08:51
WTI crude oil drops for the third consecutive day as risk-aversion joins fears of more supplies. US SPR release, UAE Energy Minister’s comments join surprise inventory build to underpin higher supply hopes. Expectations of more energy demand, Russia-linked output cut challenge bears. US Dollar’s run-up amid hawkish Fed concerns exerts additional downside pressure on Oil price. WTI crude oil holds onto the week-start bearish bias as it renews its intraday low near $78.40 during early Wednesday morning in Europe. In doing so, the black gold bears the burden of the broad US Dollar recovery and downbeat sentiment amid expectations of more Oil supplies. That said, UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei mentioned on Tuesday that UAE is committed to the OPEC deal lasting until the end of 2023. The diplomat, however, stated that he is more worried about supply than demand for next year. While saying the same, UAE Energy Minister said, “The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release won't shock the market.” Although comments from the Arab official should have ideally put a floor under the prices, hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers, despite unimpressive US inflation, joined a surprise build in US Oil inventories to weigh on prices. On Tuesday, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose past market expectations to 6.4% YoY but posted the slowest increase since 2021 while easing below 6.5% prior. More importantly, CPI ex Food & Energy, better known as the Core CPI, grew 5.6% YoY compared to 5.5% market forecasts and the 5.7% previous readings. Following the data, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that they must remain prepared to continue rate increases for a longer period than previously anticipated. On the same line was New York Fed President John Williams who noted that the work to control too high inflation is not yet done. Additionally, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker signaled that they are not done (with lifting rates), but they are likely close. Elsewhere, the American Petroleum Institute (API) released its Weekly Crude Oil Stock until February 10 while noting an increase of 10.507 million barrels versus the previous draw of 2.184 million barrels. It should be noted that the fears surrounding the global economic slowdown and the US readiness to keep using the SPR balance to battle the Russia-linked Oil shortage seem to have favored the black gold sellers. Alternatively, geopolitical fears and the OPEC+ output cut puts a floor under the energy benchmark’s price. While portraying the mood, US 10-year Treasury bond yields retreat to around 3.74%, after rising three basis points (bps) to refresh a six-week high the previous day whereas the two-year counterpart jumped to the highest level since early November 2022 by poking 4.62%, near 4.61% at the latest. Further, S&P 500 Futures trace Wall Street’s downbeat closing to highlight the mildly offbeat mood and help the US Dollar Index (DXY) to extend the post-US CPI run-up to 103.45 by the press time. Technical analysis Although failure to cross the 100-DMA recalled the WTI bears on Monday, the quote’s further downside appears elusive as it approaches the 50-DMA support, close to $77.70 by the press time.
Weaker Crude Oil Prices Undermine The Loonie Pair (USD/CAD)

Weaker Crude Oil Prices Undermine The Loonie Pair (USD/CAD)

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 15.02.2023 08:47
USD/CAD regains positive traction on Wednesday and is supported by a combination of factors. Sliding crude oil prices undermines the Loonie and acts as a tailwind amid sustained USD buying. The prospects for more rate hikes by the Fed and the risk-off mood benefit the safe-haven buck. The USD/CAD pair catches fresh bids on Wednesday following the previous day's post-US CPI volatility and sticks to its intraday gains heading into the European session. The pair trades around the 1.3365 region, up nearly 0.25% for the day, and is supported by a combination of factors. Weaker crude oil prices undermine the commodity-linked Loonie, which, along with broad-based US Dollar strength, acts as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. Investors now seem worried that economic headwinds stemming from rising borrowing costs will dent fuel demand. Apart from this, signs of another massive build in US crude inventories weigh on the black liquid. In fact, the American Petroleum Institute (API) report showed on Tuesday that US crude stockpiles grew over 10 million barrels in the week to February 10. The USD, on the other hand, stands tall near a multi-week high amid firming expectations for further policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. In fact, the markets seen convinced that the US central bank will stick to its hawkish stance for longer in the wake of stubbornly high inflation. The bets were reaffirmed by the latest US CPI report released and hawkish commentary by several FOMC officials on Tuesday. This, along with the prevalent risk-off mood, benefits the safe-haven buck and lends support to the USD/CAD pair. The aforementioned fundamental backdrop favours bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD pair is to the upside. Hence, some follow-through positive move, back towards reclaiming the 1.3400 round-figure mark, looks like a distinct possibility. The focus now shifts to the US economic docket, featuring the release of monthly Retail Sales and the Empire State Manufacturing Index. Traders will further take cues from oil price dynamics to grab short-term opportunities around the pair. Technical levels to watch remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators
The Outlook Of Silver: White Metal Has The Potential To Depreciate Downwards

The Silver Stays Pressured Around The Lowest Levels

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 15.02.2023 08:44
Silver prints three-day losing streak as sellers flirt with 2.5-month low. Clear downside break of 100-DMA, bearish MACD signals favor sellers. 50% Fibonacci retracement, 200-DMA challenge further downside. Recovery remains elusive unless crossing $23.15, ascending trend line from early September 2022 adds to the downside filters. Silver price (XAG/USD) remains on the bear’s radar as the bright metal renews intraday low near $21.70 during early Wednesday in Europe. In doing so, the bullion stays pressured around the lowest levels since November 30 amid a three-day downtrend. The quote’s weakness could be linked to the daily closing below the 100-DMA, as well as sustained trading below the previous support line from early December 2022, respectively near $21.95 and $23.15. As a result, the XAG/USD bears have a free hand while expecting further downside of the metal. However, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of September 2022 to February 2023 upside, near $21.10, precedes the 200-DMA level of $21.00 to offer a strong challenge to the Silver sellers. Following that, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement surrounding $20.30, also known as the golden Fibonacci ratio, as well as a 5.5-month-old ascending support line, close to $20.00 round figure, will become the key for the XAG/USD sellers to watch. Read next: GBP/USD Pair Rose Sharply Above $1.22, EUR/USD Pair Also Rose| FXMAG.COM Alternatively, recovery moves need to stay beyond the 100-DMA hurdle of $21.95, as well as the $22.00 round figure to convince intraday buyers of the Silver. Even so, the previous weekly high near $22.60 and the support-turned-resistance line from December 06, 2022, close to $23.15, could challenge the XAG/USD bulls before giving them control. Silver price: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected
Market Focus: European Data Releases, ECB Survey, US FOMC Minutes, and UK Bond Supply

The NZD/USD Pair Is Expected Further Downside Movement

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 15.02.2023 08:42
NZD/USD marks the second defeat from 50-DMA, renews intraday low. Three-month-old rising wedge restricts downside ahead of 200-DMA. Bearish MACD signals, downbeat RSI and failure to cross 50-DMA favor sellers. NZD/USD takes offers to refresh the intraday low near 0.6300 as it extends the previous day’s pullback from the 50-DMA hurdle during early Wednesday. In doing so, the Kiwi pair marks the second such failure to cross the key Daily Moving Average (DMA) while staying inside a three-month-old rising wedge bearish chart formation. Other than the failure to cross the 50-DMA, bearish MACD signals join the downbeat RSI (14), not oversold, to keep the bears hopeful. However, a clear downside break of the three-month-old ascending support line, forming part of the stated rising wedge bearish chart formation, near 0.6290, becomes necessary. Read next: Walmart Plans To Close Offices, Ford Invests In Battery Factories | FXMAG.COM Following that, the 200-DMA support surrounding 0.6180 and the mid-November 2022 swing low around 0.6065, could act as the last defense before directing the Kiwi pair toward the theoretical target of 0.5810. During the fall, the 0.6000 round figure may act as an extra filter towards the north. Alternatively, a daily closing beyond the 50-DMA hurdle surrounding 0.6375 could aim for the 0.6400 threshold and the stated wedge’s top line near 0.6540. Though, any further upside appears less lucrative unless crossing the June 2022 high of near 0.6575. NZD/USD: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators
Underestimated Risks: Market Underestimating Further RBA Tightening

The USD/INR await more clues to extend the previous day’s run-up

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 15.02.2023 08:40
USD/INR seesaws around multi-day high as firmer US Dollar jostles with sluggish markets, downbeat Oil price. Fed Officials ignore sticky inflation to defend hawkish bias and propel US Treasury bond yields, USD. Upbeat WPI inflation favor RBI rate hike expectations and put a floor under Indian Rupee. US data, risk catalysts eyed for fresh impulse. USD/INR bulls take a breather around the 1.5-month high, flirting with the multi-day-old resistance line near 83.00 by the press time, as markets await more clues to extend the previous day’s run-up. It’s worth noting that the Indian Rupee (INR) dropped to the lowest levels since early January the previous day after the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers ignored unimpressive US inflation numbers to defend their hawkish bias and propel the US Dollar. However, upbeat inflation numbers at home seemed to have probed the USD/INR bulls afterward. That said, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose past market expectations to 6.4% YoY but posted the slowest increase since 2021 while easing below 6.5% prior. More importantly, CPI ex Food & Energy, better known as the Core CPI, grew 5.6% YoY compared to 5.5% market forecasts and the 5.7% previous readings. On the other hand, India's WPI Inflation grew more than expected 4.54% to 4.73%, versus 4.95% prior, during January, which in turn justifies the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) inflation woes and readiness for further rate increases. Other than India’s WPI inflation, downbeat Oil prices also weigh on the USD/INR pair, mainly due to the Asian nation’s reliance on energy imports and the record-high deficit. That said, WTI crude oil drops 0.80% intraday to $78.70 while printing a three-day downtrend by the press time. Talking about the Fed commentary, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that they must remain prepared to continue rate increases for a longer period than previously anticipated. On the same line was New York Fed President John Williams who noted that the work to control too high inflation is not yet done. Additionally, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker signaled that they are not done (with lifting rates), but they are likely close. Read next: GBP/USD Pair Rose Sharply Above $1.22, EUR/USD Pair Also Rose| FXMAG.COM Amid these plays, US 10-year Treasury bond yields retreat to around 3.74%, after rising three basis points (bps) to refresh a six-week high the previous day whereas the two-year counterpart jumped to the highest level since early November 2022 by poking 4.62%, near 4.61% at the latest. Further, S&P 500 Futures trace Wall Street’s downbeat closing to highlight the mildly offbeat mood and help the US Dollar Index (DXY) to extend the post-US CPI run-up. Moving on, US Retail Sales and Industrial Production details for January, as well as NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for February, should be watched closely to confirm the Fed’s hawkish bias ahead of the next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes. Technical analysis A daily closing beyond the four-month-old descending resistance line, around 83.00 by the press time, becomes necessary for the USD/INR bulls to keep the reins.
Bank of England is expected to hike the rate by 25bp. Kelvin Wong talks Euro against British pound

The EUR/GBP Cross-Currency Pair Remains On The Buyer’s Radar

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.02.2023 09:18
EUR/GBP reverses bounce off key support confluence on strong UK employment data. UK Unemployment Rate stays unchanged but Claimant Count Change drops. Divergence between ECB and BoE policymakers may recall pair buyers if EU Q4 GDP improves. EUR/GBP reverses from intraday high while declining nearly 20 pips to 0.8830 on the upbeat UK jobs report during early Tuesday. In doing so, the cross-currency pair reversed the early-day run-up from the key 0.8830 support confluence. UK’s Unemployment Rate matches market forecasts and reprints the 3.7% figure for three months to December. However, a slump in January’s Claimant Count Change to -12.9K versus -3.2K prior, as well as strong prints of the  Average Earnings Excluding Bonus for the said month seemed to have favored EUR/GBP bears of late. In contrast to the upbeat UK data, a comparatively more hawkish bias at the European Central Bank (ECB) versus the Bank of England (BoE) joins the upbeat European Commission (EC) economics forecasts to underpin the regional currency’s bullish bias. On Monday, the European Commission (EC) released its quarterly economic projections for the Eurozone wherein it revised up the economic growth forecast to 0.9% for 2023 from 0.3% previously expected, projecting 2024 growth unchanged at 1.5%. The EC, however, lowered the Eurozone inflation forecast for 2023 to 5.6% YoY from 6.1% earlier expected. Further, the EC also cut 2024 inflation predictions to 2.5% for 2024, versus 2.6% previously anticipated. That said, European Central Bank (ECB) Vice-President Luis de Guindos said on Monday, “Rate increases beyond March are to depend on data.” On the same line, ECB policymaker Mario Centeno said, “Inflation is going down faster than we expected,” while adding that smaller hikes would need mid-term inflation nearing 2%. On the other hand, Bank of England’s (BoE) policymaker Jonathan Haskel cited a rise in inactivity in the UK labor market and challenged the British Pound (GBP) buyers previously. BoE’s Haskel also mentioned, “I would prefer to make policy with much more attention on the data flow over the next few months.” On a broader front, the cautious mood ahead of the top-tier data/events joins softer US Treasury bond yields to favor the mild optimism in the market, which in turn seems to favor the Euro (EUR). Having witnessed the initial reaction to the British data and EU fundamentals, EUR/GBP pair traders should wait for the preliminary readings of the fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the Eurozone for clear directions. Given the recently upbeat economic projections from the European Commission and the ECB’s hawkish bias, the EUR/GBP pair is likely to remain firmer unless the EU GDP disappoints. Technical analysis Unless breaking 0.8830 support confluence comprising the 21-DMA and a one-month-old ascending trend line, the EUR/GBP remains on the buyer’s radar.
Uncertain Path Ahead: Will Silver Regain Historic Highs?

The Silver Seems Vulnerable To Prolonging Its Recent Pullback

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.02.2023 09:16
Silver extends its sideways consolidative price move around the $22.00 mark on Tuesday. The technical setup favours bearish traders and supports prospects for additional losses. A sustained break below the 100-day SMA support is needed to confirm the negative bias. Silver continues with its struggle to gain any meaningful traction on Tuesday and remains confined in a narrow range through the early European session. The white metal is currently placed around the $22.00 mark and seems vulnerable to prolonging its recent pullback from the $24.65 area, or the highest level since April 2022 touched earlier this month. Last week's sustained break and acceptance below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally from October 2022 adds credence to the negative outlook. Furthermore, technical indicators on the daily chart are holding deep in the negative territory and are still far from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, supports prospects for a further near-term depreciating move. That said, bearish traders might wait for some follow-through selling below the 100-day SMA, currently around the $21.75 region, before placing fresh bets. The XAG/USD would then turn vulnerable to testing the 50% Fibo. level, around the $21.35 area. The downward trajectory could get extended further towards the $21.00 level en route to the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the $20.60-$20.55 zone. On the flip side, a recovery above 38.2% Fibo. level, around the $22.15 area, is more likely to attract fresh sellers near the $22.60-$22.70 supply zone. This should cap the XAG/USD near the $23.00 mark, representing the 23.6% Fibo. That said, a convincing breakthrough the latter could offset the negative outlook and shift the near-term bias in favour of bullish traders. Read next: GBP/USD Started The New Week In A Calm Way, EUR/USD Is Waiting For US CPI Report| FXMAG.COM The subsequent move up has the potential to lift the XAG/USD further towards reclaiming the $24.00 round-figure mark. Bulls might then aim back to challenge the $24.50 supply zone, which if cleared decisively should pave the way for a fresh leg up. Silver daily chart Key levels to watch remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators
The USD/JPY Price Reversed From The Lower Limit

Fears Of The US-China Tension Over The Balloon Shooting Put A Floor Under The USD/JPY Price

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.02.2023 09:11
USD/JPY prints mild losses while reversing from monthly high. Treasury bond yields remain pressured amid market’s indecision ahead of the key US CPI. Mixed Japan GDP gained little attention as Ueda’s nomination as BoJ leader appears hawkish. USD/JPY bounces off intraday low but remains stuck with mild losses near 132.00 amid early Tuesday morning in Europe. The Yen pair initially cheered the pullback in the Treasury bond yields before the Japanese government’s announcements of Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials triggered hawkish concerns and weighed on the prices. Also favoring the USD/JPY bears is the broad US Dollar pullback as traders brace for a positive surprise from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January. Earlier in the day, Japan’s preliminary readings of the fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data printed mixed readings. Following that, the official nomination of Kazuo Ueda as the BoJ leader weighed on the USD/JPY prices. That said, Bloomberg came out with an analysis suggesting further challenges to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) easy money policy during the incoming Kazuo Ueda’s reign. It’s worth noting that Ueda previously defended the current monetary policy in his latest public speech. On other hand, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks kept defending the rate hike concerns but the market’s pricing of slower rate lifts and a nearer peak seemed to have weighed on the US Treasury bond yields. As a result, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields drop nearly two basis points to 3.69% at the latest, after reversing from a one-month high the previous day. Read next: GBP/USD Started The New Week In A Calm Way, EUR/USD Is Waiting For US CPI Report| FXMAG.COM Elsewhere, fresh fears of the US-China tension over the balloon shooting also challenge the sentiment and put a floor under the USD/JPY price. US Congress will take a bipartisan look at unidentified aerial objects that have made their way into U.S. and Canadian airspace, and why they were not found sooner,” said US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. It’s worth noting that a US Military General previously ruled out odds favoring the likely hand of China in the “unidentified objects” which were shot down during the weekend. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures print mild losses whereas Japan’s Nikkei 225 rises 0.65% intraday to near 27,600 by the press time. Moving on, the market consensus anticipates 6.2% YoY print of the US CPI for January but the odds of the positive surprise during the year-start are high, which in turn keeps USD/JPY bears on the dicey floor. Technical analysis USD/JPY extends the early-day pullback from the previous weekly top surrounding 132.90 and forms “Double tops”, a bearish chart pattern. Also justifying the Yen pair’s latest weakness is the RSI (14) line that took a U-turn from the overbought conditions, not to forget the bearish MACD signals.
Swiss Inflation Falls Below Expectations; US Markets Closed, Fed Minutes Awaited

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Is Continuously Facing Pressure

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.02.2023 09:07
NZD/USD is looking to stretch its recovery move above 0.6350 amid the risk-on mood. Federal Reserve might remain favored for policy tightening continuation despite inflation softening ahead. Reserve Bank of New Zealand inflation expectations has dropped to 3.30% from the prior release of 3.62% for two years from now. NZD/USD is oscillating in an Inverted Flag that favors the downside on a broader basis. NZD/USD has rebounded firmly after a corrective move to near 0.6330 in the Asian session. The Kiwi asset is looking to stretch its recovery move above the immediate resistance of 0.6350 as the US Dollar Index (DXY) has extended its downside to near 102.77. Considering the downside pressure in the USD Index ahead of the release of the January inflation report, it is likely that investors are highly confident that the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) will continue its declining trend consecutively for the seventh time. S&P500 futures are demonstrating a subdued performance, portraying a minor caution for fresh buying. However, the upside strength shown by the 500-US stocks basket on Monday indicates that the risk appetite theme is extremely solid. The demand for US government bonds is escalating vigorously, which has trimmed the return generated on the 10-year US Treasury yields to 3.70%. Annual US Inflation looks to trim consecutively for the seventh time From the whooping figure of 9.1%, the headline inflation in the United States has already come down to 6.5% in January and investors are expecting further decline as higher interest rates have forced the firms to scale down their production activities. Analysts at RBC Economics expect CPI growth to edge down to 6.2% in January from 6.5% in December (YoY). Food price growth likely also continued to slow, albeit from very high levels. By contrast, we expect energy price growth to tick up for the first time in 7 months – though to an 8% rate that is still well below a June peak of 42%. We look for core inflation to slow further in January, coming in at 5.4% YoY, down from 5.7% in December. All told, recent inflation reports have pointed to a relatively broadly-based easing in price pressures.” Another school of thought believes that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could deliver a surprise move as the labor market has remained upbeat in January month. Higher demand for labor is contained by offering them higher wages, which carries the potential of propelling the overall consumer spending as households will be equipped with more funds for disposal. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations showed on Monday that the US consumers' one-year inflation expectation stayed unchanged at 5% in January. Federal Reserve to continue sound hawkish despite softer CPI release The street is laser-focused on the release of the price index data as it will provide meaningful cues for further monetary policy action by the Federal Reserve. Fed chair Jerome Powell has already cleared that inflation is stubborn in nature and a premature consideration of pausing rates or cutting them could paddle up the inflationary pressures again. No doubt, December’s economic indicators were in favor of a policy tightening pause, however, the stronger-than-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) stole the spotlight. For interest-rate guidance, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Monday the Fed will continue to raise interest rates, pointing out there will be a lot of data releases between now and the next policy meeting. Read next: Poland’s President Andrzej Duda Said The Decision To Send Fighter Jets To Ukraine Was “Not Easy To Take”| FXMAG.COM RBNZ to consider mega rate hike despite slowing inflation projections The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has been hiking its Official Cash Rate (OCR) significantly to decelerate the pace of price pressures. After recording a multi-decade high of 7.3%, New Zealand’s inflation dropped marginally to 7.2% in the fourth quarter of CY2022. Led by higher interest rates from Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr, employment opportunities have slowed down and the Unemployment Rate has increased to 3.4%. Also, inflation expectations reported by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have dropped to 3.3% on a quarterly basis from the former release of 3.62% for two years from now. In spite of the indicators favoring further exhaustion in the inflationary pressures, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand might continue to hike interest rates with a big number. The inflation rate is extremely skewed upside from the desired rate of 2%. Therefore, a decision of bumper interest rate hike cannot be ruled out. NZD/USD technical outlook NZD/USD is oscillating in an Inverted Flag chart pattern on a four-hourly scale. The chart pattern indicates a sheer consolidation that is followed by a breakdown. Usually, the consolidation phase of the chart pattern serves as an inventory adjustment in which those participants initiate shorts, which prefer to enter an auction after the establishment of a bearish bias. The New Zealand Dollar is continuously facing pressure from the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6355, which indicates more weakness ahead. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the 40.00-60.00, which indicates that investors await a potential trigger for a decisive move.     search   g_translate    
UBS buys Credit Suisse for $3.2bn. Last week was the worst one for equity markets in 2023

The USD/CHF Pair Is Expected Further Downside Movement

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.02.2023 09:03
USD/CHF takes offers to renew intraday low, stretching pullback from weekly top. Clear downside break of short-term key trend line, SMA joins downbeat oscillators to favor bearish bias. Recovery remains elusive unless crossing five-week-old resistance line. USD/CHF prints mild losses around 0.9180 heading into Tuesday’s European session, stretching the previous day’s downside break of the key support ahead of the all-important US inflation data. Not only the downside break of the 100-SMA and a two-week-old ascending trend line but bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI (14), not oversold, also favor the USD/CHF bears. That said, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since January 09, close to 0.9165-60, appears imminent support for the Swiss currency pair to test. Following that, the 0.9100 round figure and the previous monthly low near 0.9085 could act as intermediate halts before directing the USD/CHF bears toward the monthly bottom surrounding 0.9060. Meanwhile, recovery moves appear elusive unless crossing the convergence of the 100-SMA and the aforementioned support line, close to 0.9210. Even if the USD/CHF manages to stay firmer past 0.9210, a downward-sloping resistance line from January 06, near 0.9260, could act as the last defense of the pair bears. Overall, USD/CHF remains bearish as traders brace for the key US inflation data. However, the downside room appears limited. USD/CHF: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators
USD/CAD - Canadian economy added 41,400 jobs beating expectations

The Loonie Pair (USD/CAD) Probes The Two-Day Losing Streak At The Lowest Levels

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.02.2023 08:59
USD/CAD holds lower ground at weekly bottom, pressured after two-day downtrend. Clear downside break of key EMA, Fibonacci retracement join looming bear cross on MACD to lure bears. Monthly resistance line, descending trend line from October challenge pair buyers. USD/CAD remains depressed around 1.3330 even as bulls and bears jostle during early Tuesday, due to the market’s inaction ahead of the key US inflation data. In doing so, the Loonie pair probes the two-day losing streak at the lowest levels in more than a week. It’s worth noting that the quote’s sustained downside break of the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the September-October upside joins a looming bear cross on the MACD to keep USD/CAD sellers hopeful. As a result, a convergence of the ascending trend line from mid-November and the 200-day EMA, around 1.3270 by the press time, gains major attention. Should the pair offers a clear downside break of the 1.3270 key level, the last November’s low near 1.3225 may act as a validation point for the south-run targeting the September 2022 bottom surrounding 1.2955. It should be observed that the 1.3100 and the 1.3000 round figures may act as intermediate halts during the anticipated fall. Meanwhile, the stated key Fibonacci retracement level, also known as the golden ratio, guards immediate USD/CAD rebound near 1.3345, a break of which highlights the 100-day EMA level of 1.3410. Following that, a descending resistance line from January 19 and a four-month-old downward-sloping trend line, respectively around 1.3455 and 1.3530, could challenge the USD/CAD bulls. USD/CAD: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators
The Indian Rupee Pair Takes Clues From The Receding Fears Of Hawkish Fed Rate Moves

The Indian Rupee (INR) Bulls Are Likely To Remain Solid

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.02.2023 08:57
USD/INR is aiming to deliver a break above 82.60 as the USD Index is eyeing more weakness.  The market mood is upbeat as investors have digested the consequences associated if US inflation delivers a surprise jump. To tame core inflation, the RBI might hike its repo rate further by 25bps. The USD/INR pair is struggling to extend above the immediate resistance of 82.60 in the Asian session. The upside move in the asset looks favored as the US Dollar Index (DXY) has recorded a fresh day’s low at 102.81. The USD Index is looking for more downside as the overall market sentiment is extremely positive. Investors have digested the consequences associated if United States inflation delivering a surprise jump after declining meaningfully for the past six months consecutively. Therefore, the demand for risk-perceived assets has improved dramatically. S&P500 futures have recovered some of their losses, portraying a recovery in the risk appetite theme. The demand for US government bonds is escalating vigorously, which has trimmed the return generated on the 10-year US Treasury yields to 3.70%. On an overall note, the street is worried that a surprise rise in the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) could force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period. Ace editor of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) Nick Timiraos cited the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) research paper titled, “Residual Seasonality in Core Consumer Price Inflation: An Update,” to justify his expectations stating, “Core inflation has generally come in higher in the first of the year than the second half of the year.” Read next: GBP/USD Started The New Week In A Calm Way, EUR/USD Is Waiting For US CPI Report| FXMAG.COM Meanwhile, the Indian Rupee bulls are likely to remain solid as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might look for tightening the policy further to impact the core inflation. Economists at Commerzbank see at least another 25 bps hike in the first half this year and possibly even 50 bps particularly if domestic demand remains firm and core inflation fails to cool. This should provide some support for INR. Meanwhile, the oil price has turned sideways above $79.00 ahead of the release of the US inflation data. It is worth noting that India is one of the leading importers of oil in the world and volatility in oil prices impacts the Indian Rupee critically. remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators
Market Focus: European Data Releases, ECB Survey, US FOMC Minutes, and UK Bond Supply

Situation Of US Dollar Is A Key Factor Lending Some Support To The NZD/USD Pair

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 13.02.2023 12:22
NZD/USD rebounds over 50 pips from the daily low amid the emergence of some USD selling. A modest recovery in the risk sentiment weighs the buck and benefits the risk-sensitive Kiwi. Hawkish Fed expectations, recession fears should limit the USD downside and cap the major. The NZD/USD pair attracts some buyers near the 0.6290 area on Monday and climbs to a fresh daily high during the first half of the European session. The pair is currently placed just below mid-0.6300s, though remains well within a familiar trading band held over the past week or so. The US Dollar fails to capitalise on its modest intraday gains and turns out to be a key factor lending some support to the NZD/USD pair. A softer tone surrounding the US Treasury bond yields acts as a headwind for the greenback. Apart from this, an intraday recovery in the US equity markets further undermines the safe-haven buck and benefits the risk-sensitive Kiwi. That said, worries about a deeper global economic downturn should keep a lid on any optimism in the markets. Apart from this, the prospects for further policy tightening by the Fed could help limit any meaningful downside for the USD and cap the upside for the NZD/USD pair. This, in turn, warrants some caution for bulls and before positioning for further gains. Investors now seem convinced that the Fed will stick to its hawkish stance. The bets were reaffirmed by the Labor Department's annual revisions of CPI, which showed that consumer prices rose in December instead of falling as previously estimated. Separately, the University of Michigan survey's one-year inflation expectations climbed to 4.2% in February from the 3.9% previous. Read next: Poland’s President Andrzej Duda Said The Decision To Send Fighter Jets To Ukraine Was “Not Easy To Take”| FXMAG.COM This raises the risk of higher inflation print for January and dashes hopes for an imminent pause in the Fed's rate-hiking cycle. Hence, the market focus will remain glued to the crucial US CPI report on Tuesday. Heading into the key data risk, traders might refrain from placing aggressive bets around the NZD/USD pair in the absence of relevant economic data on Monday. Technical levels to watch remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators
If The Bank Of England Hike Interest Rates Again Later This Month Will Exert Downward Pressure On The EUR/GBP Cross

The EUR/USD Pair Is Expected A Further Upside Movement

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 13.02.2023 09:02
EUR/GBP fades bounce off monthly support, grinds near intraday high of late. Sustained trading beyond 200-SMA, looming bull cross on MACD favor buyers. Weekly resistance line guards immediate upside ahead of monthly high. EUR/GBP grinds near an intraday high surrounding 0.8850 during the initial hours of Monday morning in London. In doing so, the cross-currency pair stays above the 200-Simple Moving Average (SMA) despite fading bounce off the monthly support line. It’s worth noting that the impending bull cross on the MACD and steady RSI (14) joins the quote’s successful trading above the key moving average to keep buyers hopeful. That said, a one-week-old descending trend line restricts the EUR/GBP pair’s immediate upside to near 0.8870. Following that, the 0.8900 round figure and multiple hurdles near 0.8910 could act as the last defense of the pair buyers before directing the quote toward the monthly high of near 0.8980. It should be observed that the EUR/GBP run-up beyond 0.8990 will need validation from the 0.9000 psychological magnet to aim for the previous yearly high surrounding 0.9250. Read next: Campbell Bought A $100,000 Plane To Live In It| FXMAG.COM On the contrary, the 200-SMA and an ascending trend line from January 19, close to 0.8835 and 0.8828 in that order, restrict the short-term downside of the EUR/GBP pair. Following that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s January-February upside and the late January swing low, respectively near 0.8820 and 0.8760, will be in focus. Overall, EUR/GBP is likely to remain firmer unless offering clear trading below 0.8828. EUR/GBP: Four-hour chart Trend: Further upside expected remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators
USD/JPY Pair Has Rebounded Firmly From The Upward-Sloping Trendline

Fears About The Mystery Objects Flying Over The US And China Propel The USD/JPY Prices

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 13.02.2023 08:52
USD/JPY picks up bids to renew intraday high as US Dollar cheers risk-off mood. Hopes of doves to keep the BoJ reins weigh on Yen amid sluggish yields. Upbeat US inflation expectations, hawkish Fed concerns keep buyers hopeful. Japan policymakers verdict on BoJ leader, Japan Q4 GDP and US CPI will be crucial for clear directions. USD/JPY refreshes intraday high around 132.30 during early Monday in Europe. In doing so, the Yen pair reverses the previous week’s losses amid hopes of an easy money policy to prevail for long. Adding strength to the pair’s upside bias is the US Dollar’s demand amid a risk-off mood and also due to the hawkish bias surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed), not to forget steady yields. Talks surrounding Kazuo Ueda’s appointment as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor backed concerns over the ultra-easy monetary policy and favored the USD/JPY bulls afterward. On the other hand, fears about the mystery objects flying over the US and China underpin the US Dollar’s haven demand and propel the USD/JPY prices. The US shot down nearly four such objects while China prepares to hit one such unidentified object while weighing on the market sentiment and fueling the DXY. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY), was up 0.20% near 103.80 by the press time. Elsewhere, the mildly hawkish Fed talks join Friday’s strong US Consumer Sentiment and US inflation expectations to offer extra strength to the USD/JPY prices, via US Dollar strength. During the weekend, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker pushed back the chatters of a Fed rate cut during 2023. However, the policymaker did mention, “Fed not likely to cut this year but may be able to in 2024 if inflation starts ebbing.”  His comments were mostly in line with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious optimism and hence challenge the US Dollar buyers. Read next: Campbell Bought A $100,000 Plane To Live In It| FXMAG.COM Amid these plays, US stock futures fade the previous day’s corrective bounce while the Treasury bond yields remain sluggish around the multi-day high marked on Friday, which in turn helped the US Dollar Index (DXY) to grind higher after a two-week uptrend. Moving ahead, the preliminary readings of Japan’s fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product, up for publishing on Tuesday, will precede the Japanese policymakers’ official selection of the BoJ leaders to direct short-term USD/JPY moves. Following that, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January will be crucial for short-term Yen pair directions. Technical analysis A daily closing beyond the 50-DMA, around 132.20 by the press time, appears necessary for the USD/JPY bulls to keep the reins.
The USD/MXN Pair Could Then Aim To Surpass The February Monthly Swing High

The Hawkish Monetary Policy By The Bank Of Mexico (Banxico) Has Failed To Provide Strength To The Mexican Peso

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 13.02.2023 08:49
USD/MXN is struggling to extend its recovery move above 18.70 amid the risk-off mood. A Reuters poll indicates that the monthly headline CPI and core inflation will escalate by 0.4%. Banxico is proving to be an inflation fighter after the departure of Gerardo Esquivel, who was considered a big dove. The USD/MXN pair is struggling to extend its recovery move above 18.70 in the early European session. The asset attempted a rebound move after refreshing the weekly low at 18.63, however, the recovery move looks less confident as the market sentiment is extremely negative. Investors have underpinned the risk-aversion theme as airborne threats on the United States have triggered geopolitical tensions. Also, soaring anxiety among investors ahead of the release of the United States inflation data has added to the risk-off impulse. S&P500 futures are continuously adding losses as investors expect that higher inflation will add to the consensus for higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The US Dollar Index (DXY) has turned sideways after shifting its auction above 103.40 as investors are getting prepared for a fresh upside amid a higher appeal for safe-haven assets. Higher interest rates by the Fed after a surprise rise in inflation will result in more divergence in policy comparison of other economies with the Fed. The alpha provided on 10-year US Treasury yields is holding itself above 3.74% as bets scaled higher for more stubbornness in the US inflation. A Reuters poll indicates that the monthly headline CPI and core inflation that excludes oil and food prices will escalate by 0.4%. The annual headline CPI is seen lower at 5.8% against the former release of 6.5% while the core inflation that excludes oil and food prices is seen lower at 5.4% versus 5.8% in the former release. Read next: UK Economy Suggest That Inflation Will Drop| FXMAG.COM Meanwhile, the hawkish monetary policy by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) has failed to provide strength to the Mexican Peso. Last week, Banxico hiked interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 11%. Analysts at Commerzbank stated their views on the monetary policy “Banxico is proving to be an inflation fighter after the departure of central bank member Gerardo Esquivel, who was considered a big dove, which should in principle help the Peso.” remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators
Decline of Canadian retails sales plays in favour of holding the rates by Bank of Canada

The USD/CAD Pair Is Expected A Further Downside Movement

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 13.02.2023 08:47
USD/CAD consolidates the biggest daily slump in over a month. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement triggers corrective bounce amid oversold RSI. 200-HMA joins sluggish MACD signals to probe Loonie pair buyers. USD/CAD retreats from intraday high as buyers struggle to overcome the key Hourly Moving Average (HMA) during early Monday in Europe. Even so, the Loonie pair prints 0.20% intraday gains around 1.3375 as it pares the heaviest daily loss in five weeks, marked the previous day. The quote’s recovery could be linked to its bounce off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of February 02-06 upside amid the oversold RSI (14) conditions. However, the 200-HMA level challenges the USD/CAD pair’s immediate upside near 1.3385. Given the bullish MACD signals, despite being sluggish of late, the Loonie pair may remain on the bull’s radar, suggesting a clear break of the immediate HMA hurdle surrounding 1.3385. Read next: Campbell Bought A $100,000 Plane To Live In It| FXMAG.COM Following that, 1.3415 may test the upside momentum before directing the USD/CAD bulls toward the two-week-old horizontal resistance area near 1.3470. In a case where USD/CAD remains firmer past 1.3470, it can aim for a late January swing high near 1.3520. Alternatively, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, also known as the golden Fibonacci ratio, puts a floor under the USD/CAD prices of around 1.3340, a break of which highlights the 1.3300 round figure for the bears. Should USD/CAD breaks the 1.3300 round figure, the monthly low and November 2022 trough, respectively near 1.3260 and 1.3225, will gain the market’s attention. USD/CAD: Hourly chart Trend: Further downside expected
The Commodities Feed: Specs continue to cut oil longs

Crude Oil Falls Short Of Cheering The Price-Positive News From Russia

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 13.02.2023 08:45
WTI extends pullback from two-week high amid sour sentiment. Tensions surrounding unidentified objects, hawkish Fed weigh on commodity prices. OPEC expects upbeat energy demand, Russia braces for Oil production cut. US inflation data will be crucial for clear directions. WTI crude oil pares the previous day’s gains around $79.00, down 1.22% intraday during early Monday, as energy buyers fail to ignore the broad risk-off mood. In doing so, the black gold also falls short of cheering the price-positive news from Russia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Russia will cut crude oil production by half a million barrels per day starting in March, mentioned CNN Business. The news also cites the Western sanctions on Moscow’s energy supply curbs as the catalyst behind the move that propelled Oil prices on Friday. On the same line, OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais said over the weekend at an energy conference in Cairo that the cartel “expects global oil demand to exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2023,” reported Reuters. While the hopes of higher demand and lesser supplies put a floor under the Oil price, the market’s risk-aversion joins the firmer US Dollar to weigh on the commodity prices. Among the key catalysts fueling the US Dollar Index (DXY), up 0.20% near 103.80 by the press time, are the fears about the mystery objects flying over the US and China. The US shot down nearly four such objects while China prepares to hit one such unidentified object while weighing on the market sentiment and fueling the DXY. The market’s risk-off joins the mildly positive Fedspeak, especially after Friday’s strong US Consumer Sentiment and inflation expectations, to also weigh on the WTI crude oil. During the weekend, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker pushed back the chatters of a Fed rate cut during 2023. However, the policymaker did mention, “Fed not likely to cut this year but may be able to in 2024 if inflation starts ebbing.”  His comments were mostly in line with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious optimism and hence challenge the US Dollar buyers. Read next: UK Economy Suggest That Inflation Will Drop| FXMAG.COM Looking forward, WTI crude oil may await more clues for clear directions amid a light calendar. Hence, it may extend the latest pullback ahead of Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January. Should the US inflation data arrive as firmer, the fears of hawkish Fed actions and economic slowdown weigh on the energy benchmark. Technical analysis WTI crude oil remains sidelined between the one-week-old support line and the 100-DMA, respectively near $78.80 and $80.90.  
Technical analysis of Silver by Alexandros Yfantis - May 5th

The Silver Is Expected A Limited Downside Movement

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 13.02.2023 08:41
Silver price takes offers to renew multi-day low, fades the previous day’s corrective bounce off 100-DMA. Bearish MACD signals, failure to rebound from key DMA favor XAG/USD sellers. Nearly oversold RSI (14) line challenges further downside of metal. 200-DMA lures Silver bears unless XAG/USD stays below $23.25. Silver price (XAG/USD) drops 0.85% intraday as it renews the 2.5-month low near $21.80 during early Monday. In doing so, the bright metal pokes the 100-DMA while reversing the previous day’s corrective bounce off the multi-day low. Given the quote’s inability to rebound from the 100-DMA, as well as the bearish MACD signals, the XAG/USD sellers are likely to keep the reins. However, the 200-DMA support, close to the $21.00 round figure, appears a tough nut to crack for the Silver bears. Hence, the precious metal is likely to break the immediate DMA support surrounding $21.80 but may witness a limited downside. It’s worth noting that the October 2022 peak surrounding $21.25 may act as an extra filter towards the south, before hitting the 200-DMA. Meanwhile, Silver buyers need to portray a successful recovery beyond November 2022 peak surrounding $22.25 to regain the market’s confidence. Even so, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since early December 2022, close to $23.25, could challenge the XAG/USD bulls. Read next: Campbell Bought A $100,000 Plane To Live In It| FXMAG.COM Following that, a jungle of resistances around $24.30 may test the Silver buyers before directing them to the monthly high of around $24.65, also the highest since April 2022. Silver price: Daily chart Trend: Limited downside expected
Analysis Of Situation Of The USD/INR Pair

The USD/INR Pair Traders May Witness Lackluster Moves

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 13.02.2023 08:36
USD/INR picks up bids to pare the previous losses amid risk-off mood. Fears surrounding mystery objects, hawkish Fed roil risk profile and underpin US Dollar after Friday’s upbeat data. Light calendar, cautious mood ahead of key data/events also exert downside pressure on Indian Rupee. USD/INR marches towards 82.80, up 0.30% intraday, as it snaps the three-day downtrend during early Monday. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair picks up bids to reverse the pullback from the previous monthly high as the US Dollar remains firmer amid the sour sentiment. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rises 0.20% intraday to 103.80 after a two-week uptrend as Fed talks remain hawkish while the US data appear positive. Adding strength to the greenback could be its safe-haven demand as the risk profile weakens amid geopolitical concerns surrounding unidentified objects that flew over the borders surrounding the US and China. US Military General recently turned down the market’s fears of Chinese spying on the US by saying, “(We) have no reason to think latest objects are Chinese.” Even so, the fact that the US shot down nearly four such objects and China prepares to hit one weighs on sentiment. On a different page, upbeat US inflation expectations and firmer Michigan Consumer Sentiment for February may have allowed Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker to push back the chatters of a Fed rate cut during 2023. However, the policymaker did mention, “Fed not likely to cut this year but may be able to in 2024 if inflation starts ebbing.”  His comments were mostly in line with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious optimism and hence challenge the US Dollar buyers. At home, recovery in Adani stocks and optimism surrounding the government’s deficit-cutting measures seem to battle with the broadly downbeat sentiment due to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) hawkish bias. It’s worth noting that the exodus of foreign fund outflows, due to the Adani saga, also weighs on the Indian Rupee. Read next: UK Economy Suggest That Inflation Will Drop| FXMAG.COM Amid these plays, the S&P 500 Futures fade the previous day’s corrective bounce off a one-week low, down 0.35% around 4,080 at the latest, whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields remain sidelined near 3.73% after refreshing a five-week high on Friday. Further, the Indian equity benchmarks are mildly offered by the press time. Looking forward, USD/INR pair traders may witness lackluster moves ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, up for publishing on Tuesday. Technical analysis USD/INR pair’s U-turn from 50-DMA, close to 82.20 by the press time, allows pair buyers to aim for a four-month-old descending resistance line, near 82.90.
Any Upside Momentum For AUD/USD Is Likely To Remain Capped At Monday’s High

The Aussie Pair (AUD/USD) Has Attempted A Recovery Move

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 13.02.2023 08:33
The recovery move by AUD/USD might meet offers amid the risk-off mood. A surprise rise in the US inflation would accelerate rate hike odds by the Fed. A confident drop below the H&S neckline will trigger a bearish reversal. The AUD/USD pair has shown a responsive buying action after surrendering the round-level support of 0.6900 in the Asian session. The Aussie asset has attempted a recovery move, however, the Australian Dollar could retreat ahead as the risk impulse is quite negative amid airborne threats to the United States. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to recapture the 103.50 resistance ahead investors are getting anxious ahead of the release of the United State inflation data. S&P500 futures are extending their losses as investors are expecting that a surprise rise in the US inflation would accelerate rate hike odds by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and eventually will escalate recession fears. The 10-year US Treasury yields are struggling to extend gains above 3.75%. AUD/USD is completing the last leg of the Head and Shoulder chart pattern on a four-hour scale. The aforementioned chart pattern is a prolonged consolidation and a breakdown of the neckline plotted from the January 10 low at 0.6860 will trigger a bearish reversal. The asset is facing barricades each time encountering the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6398, indicating more weakness ahead. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is struggling to sustain itself in the 40.00-60.00 range. A slippage into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00 will trigger the bearish momentum. Read next: Campbell Bought A $100,000 Plane To Live In It| FXMAG.COM A breakdown below the neckline plotted from January 10 low at 0.6860 will drag the asset toward December 28 high around 0.6800. A slippage below the latter will further drag the asset toward December 22 high at 0.6767. In an alternate scenario, a decisive break above the psychological resistance of 0.7000 will drive the asset towards January 18 high at 0.7064 followed by January 26 high at 0.7143. AUD/USD four-hour chart remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators
Central Banks and Inflation: Lessons from History and Current Realities

The GBP/JPY Cross-Pair Consolidates Recent Losses

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 13.02.2023 08:30
GBP/JPY pares the previous day’s losses inside fortnight-long symmetrical triangle. Steady RSI backs recent recovery, 200-SMA challenges immediate upside. Multiple supports to test bears on their return. GBP/JPY picks up bids to 158.70 as it grinds inside a two-wee-old triangle formation during Monday’s Asian session. The cross-currency pair prints mild gains after a consecutive two-week downtrend. That said, the recently steady RSI (14) backs the quote’s recovery moves inside the symmetrical triangle. It’s worth noting, however, that the 200-SMA hurdle surrounding 159.30 acts as an immediate upside hurdle for the GBP/JPY buyers to watch before the stated triangle’s top line, close to 159.45 by the press time. In a case where the pair remains firmer past 159.45, the 160.00 psychological magnet holds the key for the GBP/JPY run-up targeting the previous monthly high surrounding 161.85 and then to the last defense of sellers, namely the late December 2022 high near 162.35. Read next: UK Economy Suggest That Inflation Will Drop| FXMAG.COM Alternatively, a downside break of the 158.30 level will defy the triangle formation and theoretically suggest a slump toward the 143.00 mark. However, multiple hurdles do challenge the GBP/JPY bears before allowing them to cheer the multi-month low. Among them, lows marked during February and January 2023, respectively near 156.75 and 155.35, will precede the September 2022 bottom surrounding 148.80 are the key. Also important to watch is the 150.00 round figure. To sum up, GBP/JPY remains sidelined as it consolidates recent losses. GBP/JPY: Four-hour chart Trend: Upside remains more appealing remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators
Central Banks and Inflation: Lessons from History and Current Realities

Analysis Of The GBP/JPY Cross-Currency Pair

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 10.02.2023 09:14
GBP/JPY clings to mild losses following UK data dump. Preliminary readings of UK Q4 GDP matches 0.0% market forecasts. Yield curve inversion renews recession woes but BoJ talks defend pair buyers. Concerns surrounding the next BoJ leadership, economic slowdown fears are the key to follow for fresh impulse. GBP/JPY stays sidelined near 159.30-20, paying little heed to the UK’s fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during early Friday. In doing so, the cross-currency pair portrays the market’s indecision amid mixed signals and cautious mood ahead of the key US inflation precursors. That said, the first readings of the UK Q4 GDP match forecasts on QoQ and YoY figures while declining more for December month. However, the improvement in Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production seemed to have probed the pair buyers. Also read: Breaking: UK Preliminary GDP stagnates in Q4 2022, as expected Earlier in the day, various Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials tried pushing back the hawkish expectations for the Japanese central bank and put a floor under the GBP/JPY price. Recently, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya said that (It is) appropriate to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary policy. Before that, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said, “The benefits of easing outweigh the costs of side effects.” On the contrary, a pullback in the Treasury bond yields after renewing the recession fears seems to weigh on the GBP/JPY price. That said, the widest negative difference between the US 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields since 1980 amplified the recession woes the previous day. The yield curve inversion remains around the same level as both these key bond yields stay depressed near 3.66% and 4.48% respectively by the press time. Read next: USD/JPY Is Below 131.00 Again, The Aussie Is Close To 0.70$| FXMAG.COM Looking forward, the cautious mood ahead of the next BoJ leadership announcements, up for publishing on Monday, could restrict the GBP/JPY moves. However, the fears of recession and a retreat in yield may weigh on the prices amid downbeat UK concerns, including Brexit and workers’ strikes. Technical analysis A daily closing beyond the previous resistance line from January 27, now support around 158.70, keeps the GBP/JPY buyers directed towards the 50-DMA hurdle surrounding 161.20.    
Technical analysis of Silver by Alexandros Yfantis - May 5th

Silver Price Remains Bearish Despite The Latest Rebound

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 10.02.2023 09:08
Silver price portrays corrective bounce near 10-week low. Clear downside break of weekly trading range, sustained trading below 200-HMA favor XAG/USD sellers. Silver buyers should remain cautious unless renewing monthly high. Silver price (XAG/USD) picks up bids to print a corrective bounce off the 2.5-month low around $22.00 early Friday morning. In doing so, the bright metal braces for the fourth weekly loss despite poking the support-turned-resistance. That said, the metal’s clear break of the weekly trading range joins successful trading below the 200-Hour Moving Average (HMA) to keep the Silver sellers hopeful. Adding strength to the downside bias could be the reference to the metal’s previous fall after breaking the short-term trading range. Hence, the XAG/USD rebound appears elusive unless crossing the support-turned-resistance line of the latest trading range, near $22.05 by the press time. Even if the quote rises past $22.05, it won’t be able to lure the buyers unless clearly crossing the 200-HMA hurdle surrounding $22.90. Read next: Credit Suisse Reported Its Biggest Annual Loss Since The 2008, Ukrainian President Is Asking For Help And More Weapons In Brussels| FXMAG.COM It’s worth noting that the XAG/USD run-up beyond $22.90 appears bumpy and hence upside hopes remain elusive until the quote stays below the current monthly high of $24.63. On the contrary, the latest swing low of around $21.85 precedes the November 24, 2022 swing high near $21.65 to restrict short-term Silver price downside. Following that, the late November low of $20.58 and the $20.00 psychological magnet will gain the market’s attention. Overall, the Silver price remains bearish despite the latest rebound. Silver price: Hourly chart Trend: Further weakness expected remaining time till the new event being published U.S.: Leading Indicators
Australian dollar against US dollar - "It seems that the currency will soon hit a price above 0.68"

The RBA Statement Of Monetary Policy Failed To Impress The AUD/USD Buyers

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 10.02.2023 09:04
AUD/USD picks up bids to rebound from intraday low amid sluggish markets. Traders pare recent losses amid market’s cautious mood ahead of the key US data. RBA SoMP, China inflation numbers failed to impress AUD/USD traders. Mixed plays of recession and central bank talks offer inactive session ahead of US consumer-centric data. AUD/USD consolidates daily losses around 0.6930, bouncing off the intraday low amid early Friday morning in Europe. In doing so, the quote traders lick their wounds amid cautious sentiment ahead of the key US data, as well as amid indecision due to the mixed catalysts. That said, the quarterly prints of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) failed to impress the AUD/USD buyers despite posting hawkish economic forecasts and readiness for further interest rate hike. The reason could be linked to the statement saying, “The board is mindful of the rise in interest rates already made and that the policy acts with a lag.” Also read: RBA hawkish-sounding quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy does little for AUD Following that, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 2.1% YoY versus 2.2% market forecasts, compared to 1.8% prior, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped heavily to -0.8% YoY from -0.7% previous readings and -0.5% consensus.  Also read: China Consumer Price Index a touch lower than estimates, AUD eyed for reaction It should be noted that the looming fears of the US recession, as favored the US Treasury bond yields’ inversion, underpin the bearish bias surrounding the AUD/USD pair. However, the previous day’s downbeat US Jobless Claims join the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials’ hesitance in praising higher rate to weigh on the US Dollar and put a floor under the price. Read next: USD/JPY Is Below 131.00 Again, The Aussie Is Close To 0.70$| FXMAG.COM Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures print mild losses while the stocks in the Asia-Pacific region remain pressured. However, the retreat in the US Treasury bond yields appears to keep the bears at bay. Moving on, early signals for the next week’s US inflation data, namely preliminary readings of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations for February, will be crucial for the AUD/USD pair traders to watch for clear directions. Considering the upbeat expectations from the scheduled data, as well as the recession woes, the major currency pair is likely to witness further downside. Technical analysis Unless breaking the 50-DMA support surrounding 0.6870, the AUD/USD price remains on the bull’s radar targeting the 21-DMA hurdle, around the 0.7000 round figure.    
Decline of Canadian retails sales plays in favour of holding the rates by Bank of Canada

The USD/CAD Pair Is Expected Further Upside Movement

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 10.02.2023 09:02
USD/CAD grinds higher after positing two-day winning streak. Bullish MACD signals, sustained trading beyond weekly support line favor buyers. Convergence of 100-DMA, four-month-old resistance line appears a tough nut to crack for bulls. USD/CAD teases buyers around 1.3465-70 heading into Friday’s European session, after a two-day uptrend, as the Loonie pair traders await crucial statistics from Canada and the US.  In doing so, the quote remains indecisive despite printing minor gains by the press time. Also read: USD/CAD copies Oil’s inaction near mid-1.3400s, Canada employment, early signals for US inflation eyed Even so, the bullish MACD signals join the pair’s successful trading above the weekly support line, around 1.3390 by the press time, to keep the buyers hopeful. That said, the 50-DMA level surrounding 1.3500 guards the USD/CAD pair’s immediate upside before the convergence of the 100-DMA and descending resistance line from early October, close to 1.3540 at the latest. In a case where the Loonie pair manages to stay beyond 1.3540, the previous monthly high of 1.3685 and the December 2022 peak surrounding 1.3705 will act as the last defense of the USD/CAD bears. On the flip side, a clear break of the weekly support line, near 1.3390, will aim for the weekly low of 1.3360 before highlighting the monthly bottom surrounding 1.3260. Read next: Credit Suisse Reported Its Biggest Annual Loss Since The 2008, Ukrainian President Is Asking For Help And More Weapons In Brussels| FXMAG.COM Should the USD/CAD prices remain weak past 1.3260, November 2022 low and the last July’s peak, respectively around 1.3235 and 1.3220, will gain the market’s attention. USD/CAD: Daily chart Trend: Further upside expected
The USD/MXN Pair Could Then Aim To Surpass The February Monthly Swing High

The USD/MXN Pair Remains Directed Towards The Multi-Month Low

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 10.02.2023 09:00
USD/MXN pares Banxico-led losses ahead of US consumer-centric data. Banxico surprised markets with 0.50% rate hike versus 25 bps expected. Recession fears seem to underpin US Dollar rebound after Fed talks, US statistics weighed on the greenback. US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, inflation expectations eyed ahead of next week’s US CPI. USD/MXN seesaws around 18.80 as it consolidates the weekly loss, as well as the daily fall, while heading into Friday’s European session. In doing so, the Mexican Peso (MXN) pair fades the Banxico-led moves as the US dollar picks up bids amid a cautious mood in the market. The Mexican central bank, namely Banxico, surprised markets by announcing 50 basis points (bps) rate hike on Thursday. With this, Banxico surpassed market forecasts of a 0.25% rate lift while citing an effort to tame inflation fears with the increase of the benchmark rate to 11.0%. On the other hand, the US Dollar suffered from the increase in the weekly initial jobless claims, as well as the downbeat comments from Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Thomas Barkin. That said, the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 196K versus 190K expected and 183K prior. “The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending January 28 was 1,688,000, an increase of 38,000 from the previous week's revised level," said the US Department of Labor (DOL) showed on Thursday. Elsewhere, Fed’s Barkin appeared too dovish while suggesting rate cuts as he said that it would make sense for the Fed to steer "more deliberately" from here due to lagged effects of policy. Previously, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hesitated in cheering the upbeat US jobs report and raised fears of no more hawkish moves from the US central bank. Read next: USD/JPY Is Below 131.00 Again, The Aussie Is Close To 0.70$| FXMAG.COM While delving deeper into the recent moves, the widest negative difference between the US 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields since 1980 amplified the recession woes the previous day. The yield curve inversion remains around the same level as both these key bond yields stay inactive near 3.67% and 4.49% respectively by the press time. The same favor the market’s rush towards risk safety and underpins the US Dollar rebound. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) prints mild gains around 103.38 at the latest. Moving on, the early signals for the next week’s US inflation data, namely preliminary readings of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations for February, will be crucial for immediate directions. Considering the upbeat expectations from the scheduled data, as well as the recession woes, the currency pair is likely to witness further recovery. Technical analysis USD/MXN remains directed towards the multi-month low of 18.50, marked earlier in February, unless providing a daily closing beyond the 50-DMA hurdle surrounding $19.20.    
The USD/INR Pair Traders Could Be The Cautious Mood Ahead Of The Key Inflation Numbers For India And The US

The Downside Trend Of The USD/INR Pair Appears Limited

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 10.02.2023 08:55
USD/INR remains sidelined between four-month-old resistance line and 50-DMA. A convergence of 100-DMA, ascending trend line from late January appears a tough nut to crack for the pair sellers. Indian Rupee sellers need successful break of 82.80 to retake control. USD/INR remains indecisive around 82.60, challenging the two-day losing streak, as Indian Rupee traders seek fresh clues during early Friday. In doing so, the pair also takes clues from the cautious mood in the market ahead of the early signals for the US inflation, namely preliminary readings of February’s US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations. That said, the quote’s trading within the key technical hurdles also challenges the momentum traders of late. It’s worth observing that the bullish MACD signals and firmer RSI (14), however, keep the USD/INR buyers hopeful. On the same line could be the pair’s bounce off the 50-DMA. As a result, the pair’s another attempt to cross the downward-sloping resistance line from October 2022, close to 82.80 by the press time, appears on the table. Following that, a run-up towards the all-time high marked in late 2022 around 83.42 can’t be ruled out. Read next: Credit Suisse Reported Its Biggest Annual Loss Since The 2008, Ukrainian President Is Asking For Help And More Weapons In Brussels| FXMAG.COM   Meanwhile, the 50-DMA restricts the immediate downside of the USD/INR pair to around 82.20 before highlighting the 82.00 support confluence, which includes the 100-DMA and three-week-old ascending trend line. If at all the USD/INR bears keep the reins past 82.00, the odds of witnessing a gradual south run towards the previous monthly low near 80.90 can’t be ruled out. Overall, USD/INR is likely to remain depressed but the downside room appears limited, which in teases buyers to build positions for future gains. USD/INR: Daily chart Trend: Limited downside expected
GBP/USD Trading Plan: Bulls Eyeing Further Growth, Resistance Level Holds Key, COT Report Signals Interest Rate Expectations

The NZD/USD Pair Is Supported By A Modest US Dollar Weakness

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 09.02.2023 09:36
NZD/USD gains strong positive traction on Thursday and rallies to the top end of the weekly range. A positive risk tone undermines the safe-haven USD and seems to benefit the risk-sensitive Kiwi. The prospects for additional rate hikes by the Fed could limit the USD losses and cap the major. The NZD/USD pair attracts some meaningful buying on Thursday and extends its steady intraday ascent through the early European session. The pair is currently placed around the 0.6350 region, just a few pips below the weekly high touched on Tuesday and is supported by a modest US Dollar weakness. The uncertainty over the Fed's rate-hike path fails to assist the USD to build on its post-NFP rally to a one-month high, which, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the NZD/USD pair. Apart from this, a recovery in the global risk sentiment - as depicted by a generally positive tone around the US equity futures - weighs on the safe-haven buck and benefits the risk-sensitive Kiwi. The downside for the USD, however, seems limited amid diminishing odds for an imminent pause in the Fed's policy-tightening cycle. In fact, a slew of FOMC members echoed Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish view on Tuesday that additional rate hikes were likely warranted to control inflation. This, in turn, might hold back bulls from placing aggressive bets around the NZD/USD pair. Read next: The GBP/USD Pair Climbed To Around 1.2100, The EUR/USD Pair Is Above 1.0700| FXMAG.COM Moreover, looming recession risks should keep a lid on any optimistic move in the markets, which should drive some haven flows towards the buck and contribute to capping the NZD/USD pair. Investors remain concerned about economic headwinds stemming from rising borrowing costs and the COVID-19 outbreak. This, along with fears about worsening US-China relations, could weigh on the sentiment. The aforementioned fundamental backdrop makes it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before confirming that the NZD/USD pair's recent pullback from the highest level since June 2022 has run its course. Market participants now look forward to the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data, which, along with the broader risk sentiment, might provide some impetus to the major.
Uncertain Path Ahead: Will Silver Regain Historic Highs?

The White Metal (Silver) Remains Below The Mid-$22.00s

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 09.02.2023 09:30
Silver gains positive traction for the second straight day, though lacks follow-through. The technical setup favours bearish traders and supports prospects for further losses. A sustained weakness below the $22.00 mark is needed to confirm a bearish break. Silver edges higher for the second successive day on Thursday and sticks to its modest gains through the early European session. The white metal, however, lacks bullish conviction and remains below the mid-$22.00s, well within a familiar trading range held since the beginning of the week. The XAG/USD, meanwhile, manages to hold the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally from October 2022 and above a two-month low touched on Monday. Furthermore, the subsequent bounce warrants caution before positioning for a further near-term depreciating move. That said, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in the negative territory and are still far from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, favours bearish traders. A convincing break below the $22.00 mark will reaffirm the negative outlook and drag the XAG/USD to the next relevant support near the 100-day SMA, around the $21.80-$21.75 region. This is followed by 50% Fibo. level, around the $21.35 area, below which the metal could fall to the $21.00 level en route to the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the $20.60-$20.55 zone. The descending trend could get extended towards testing the $20.00 psychological mark. On the flip side, any subsequent move-up is likely to attract fresh sellers near the $22.70 region and remain capped near the $23.00 confluence support breakpoint. The said handle comprised 23.6% Fibo. level and the lower end of a nearly two-month-old trading range and should act as a tough nut to crack for the XAG/USD bulls. That said, a sustained move beyond might offset the negative outlook and shift the near-term bias in favour of bullish traders. Read next: The GBP/USD Pair Climbed To Around 1.2100, The EUR/USD Pair Is Above 1.0700| FXMAG.COM The XAG/USD might then surpass the $24.00 round-figure mark and climb back to the $24.55-$24.60 supply zone, or a multi-month top touched last week. The momentum could get extended towards reclaiming the $25.00 psychological mark for the first time since April 2022, above which bulls might aim to test the next relevant hurdle near the $25.35 region. Silver daily chart  
Australian dollar against US dollar decreased amid weak China CPI data

China Inflation Data Will Be Crucial For The AUD/USD Pair Traders

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 09.02.2023 09:23
AUD/USD picks up bids to refresh intraday high. Risk profile improves on US-China, growth chatters amid a light calendar. China inflation, RBA Monetary Policy Statement eyed for clear directions. AUD/USD renews intraday top near 0.6965 as buyers benefit from the broad US Dollar weakness and the risk-on mood during early Thursday’s sluggish session. In doing so, the Aussie pair seems to prepare for the next day’s heavy data flow comprising China inflation and monetary policy statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), not to forget the US consumer-centric data. For starters, the risk-positive headlines surrounding China occupy the driver’s seat to propel the risk-barometer AUD/USD prices. Important among them are the receding fears of the US-China jitters, following the China balloon shooting by the US, join the hopes of People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) rate cuts and the restart of the China-based companies’ listing on the US exchanges to favor risk-on mood in the bloc. On the other hand, the pullback in yields could also be linked to the AUD/USD pair’s run-up, as the same weighs on the US Dollar. That said, yields rely on the market’s reassessment of the hawkish Fed talks as Chairman Jerome Powell hesitated in praising the jobs report but Fed Governor Christopher Waller, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams and Fed Governor Lisa Cook highlight inflation fear to suggest further rate increases from the US central bank. Furthermore, comments from the US diplomats such as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and President Joe Biden also amplified inflation concerns, as well as hopes of no recession in the US, which in turn suggests a safe side for the Fed to hike the benchmark rates. Read next: The GBP/USD Pair Climbed To Around 1.2100, The EUR/USD Pair Is Above 1.0700| FXMAG.COM Against this backdrop, US Dollar Index (DXY) traces softer Treasury bond yields to reverse the previous day’s recovery moves, down 0.22% intraday near 103.25 at the latest. That said, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields reversed from a one-month high to snap a three-day uptrend on Wednesday, pressured around 3.62% by the press time. Furthermore, the Asia-Pacific shares grind higher whereas the S&P 500 Futures ignore Wall Street’s losses to print mild gains by the press time. Looking ahead, the US Weekly Jobless Claims can entertain intraday traders while Friday’s RBA Monetary Policy Statement and China inflation data will be crucial for the AUD/USD pair traders to watch. That said, the RBA’s latest hawkish appearance and Beijing-linked optimism will be at test on Friday. Technical analysis AUD/USD run-up appears doubtful unless crossing the 21 and 10-DMA confluence near the 0.7000 psychological magnet.
Sharp drop in Canadian inflation suggests rates have peaked

Oil Price Is Struggling To Stretch Its Upside Move And Will Support The Canadian Dollar

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 09.02.2023 09:12
USD/CAD is attempting to deliver a breakout of the Falling Channel for the third time. The Loonie asset has reclaimed the 20-EMA, which indicates that the short-term trend is bullish now. A break into the bullish range of 60.00-40.00 by the RSI (14) will activate upside momentum. The USD/CAD pair has dropped firmly to near 1.3435 after failing to recapture a weekly high around 1.3476 in the early European session. The Loonie asset is following the footprints of the US Dollar Index (DXY), which has surrendered the 103.00 cushion amid a sheer recovery in the risk-on impulse. S&P500 futures have extended their gains firmly as investors’ risk appetite has improved after the market digested the hawkish interest rate guidance from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Meanwhile, the oil price is struggling to stretch its upside move above $78.50. It is worth noting that Canada is a leading exporter of oil to the United States and higher oil prices will support the Canadian Dollar. USD/CAD is attempting to deliver a breakout of the Falling channel chart pattern on a two-hour scale, for the third time after two failed breaks due to the absence of strength in the US Dollar bulls. The Loonie is testing the strength of the breakout near 1.3432. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3423 is acting as major support for the US Dollar bulls. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is struggling to cross 40.00. A break into the bullish range of 60.00-40.00 will activate upside momentum. A break above February 7 high at 1.3469 will drive the asset toward January 19 high at 1.3521 followed by January 6 low at 1.3538. On the flip side, a slippage below Wednesday’s low at 1.3360 will drag the asset toward January 3 low at 1.3321 and February 2 low at 1.3262. USD/CAD two-hour chart  
The Indian Rupee Pair Takes Clues From The Receding Fears Of Hawkish Fed Rate Moves

The USD/INR Pair May Witness Recovery

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 09.02.2023 09:09
USD/INR remains pressured for the second consecutive day amid broad US Dollar weakness. RBI rejects dovish hike concerns even as matching market forecasts of 0.25% rate hike. Cautious optimism in Asia, downbeat US Treasury bond yields favor Indian Rupee buyers. USD/INR fades bounce off intraday low as Indian Rupee buyers cheer cautious optimism in Asia, as well as a softer US Dollar, during early Thursday. In doing so, the pair sellers extend the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) inflicted losses to around 82.60 by the press time. Market sentiment in Asia improves amid the risk-positive headlines surrounding China. That said, the receding fears of the US-China jitters, following the China balloon shooting by the US, join hopes of People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) rate cuts and the restart of the China-based companies’ listing on the US exchanges to favor risk-on mood in the bloc. Additionally favoring the sentiment could be the receding recession woes surrounding China and the US. On Wednesday, global rating giant Fitch inflated China's growth forecasts while US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and President Joe Biden recently cheered hopes of growth in the current year. It should be noted that the RBI’s rejection of the market’s dovish hike expectations, by suggesting high inflation fears, also seems to weigh on the USD/INR prices. Following the RBI’s 0.25% hawkish move, analysts at ING and Citibank expect another 25 bps rate hike. Alternatively, hawkish Fedspeak, including Fed Governor Christopher Waller, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams and Fed Governor Lisa Cook, highlight inflation fears and defended higher rates, while also pushing back the talks of rate cuts in 2023. On the same line were comments from the US diplomats as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen mentioned, “While inflation remained elevated, there were encouraging signs that supply-demand mismatches were easing in many sectors of the economy.” Elsewhere, US President Joe Biden said during a PBS interview that there will be no US recession in 2023 or 2024. Amid these plays, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields which reversed from a one-month high to snap a three-day uptrend on Wednesday, pressured around 3.61% at the latest. The same helped S&P 500 Futures to ignore Wall Street’s downbeat closing and remain mildly bid as of late. Read next: The GBP/USD Pair Climbed To Around 1.2100, The EUR/USD Pair Is Above 1.0700| FXMAG.COM Given the cautious optimism in the market and the US Dollar’s failure to justify hawkish Fed bias, the USD/INR pair may witness recovery if the US Weekly Jobless Claims keep portraying a strong US labor market. Also, fears of more Sino-American tussles and higher Fed rates may allow the Indian Rupee (INR) to pare RBI-inspired gains. Technical analysis USD/INR bears need validation from a convergence of the 100-DMA and a two-week-old ascending support line, close to the 82.00 round figure by the press time, to retake control.  
The Outlook Of Silver: White Metal Has The Potential To Depreciate Downwards

The Descending Trend Of Silver Could Get Extended

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 08.02.2023 09:41
Silver catches fresh bids on Wednesday and recovers from over a two-month low set the previous day. The technical setup favours bearish traders and supports prospects for a further depreciating move. A convincing break below the $22.00 mark will reaffirm the negative outlook and prompt fresh selling. Silver attracts fresh buying on Tuesday and moves away from over a two-month low, around the $22.00 round figure touched the previous day. The white metal sticks to its modest intraday gains through the early European session and trades near the top end of its daily range, around the $22.35 region. From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD once again showed some resilience below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally from October 2022. The subsequent bounce warrants some caution before positioning for a further near-term depreciating move. That said, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in the negative territory and are still far from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, favours bearish traders. A convincing break below the $22.00 mark will reaffirm the negative outlook and drag the XAG/USD to the next relevant support near the 100-day SMA, around the $21.70-$21.65 region. This is followed by 50% Fibo. level, around the $21.35 area, below which the metal could fall to the $21.00 level en route to the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the $20.60-$20.55 zone. The descending trend could get extended towards testing the $20.00 psychological mark. Read next: The Court In Munich Decided In Favor Of BMW| FXMAG.COM On the flip side, any subsequent move-up is likely to attract fresh sellers near the $22.70 region and remain capped near the $23.00 confluence support breakpoint. The said handle comprised 23.6% Fibo. level and the lower end of a nearly two-month-old trading range and should act as a tough nut to crack for the XAG/USD bulls. That said, a sustained move beyond might offset the negative outlook and shift the near-term bias in favour of bullish traders. Silver daily chart  
Technical analysis of Silver by Alexandros Yfantis - May 5th

Silver Remains Well Within The Striking Distance Of A Nearly Two-Month Low

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 07.02.2023 13:15
Silver attracts some buying on Tuesday and holds above the 38.2% Fibo. level support. The setup favours bearish traders and supports prospects for an eventual breakdown. A sustained strength beyond the 50-day SMA is needed to negate the bearish outlook. Silver regains some positive traction on Tuesday and sticks to its modest intraday gains, just below mid-$22.00s through the early European session. The white metal, however, lacks bullish conviction and remains well within the striking distance of a nearly two-month low touched on Monday. Looking at the broader picture, the XAG/USD last week confirmed a bearish breakdown through the lower end of a multi-week-old trading range support near the $23.00-$22.90 area. Moreover, bearish technical indicators on the daily chart support prospects for an extension of the recent sharp pullback from the highest level since April 2022 touched last Thursday. The XAG/USD, however, manages to hold above the $22.15 support zone, or the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally from October 2022, which should act as a pivotal point. Some follow-through selling below the $22.00 mark will reaffirm the negative bias and drag the white metal to the next relevant support near the 100-day SMA, around the $21.60-$21.55 zone. On the flip side, any meaningful recovery is likely to confront a hurdle near the aforementioned support breakpoint, around the $23.00-$22.90 region. This is closely followed by the 50-day SMA, currently around the $23.30-$23.35 region. A sustained strength beyond will negate the near-term bearish outlook for the XAG/USD and prompt some short-covering rally. Read next: The Court In Munich Decided In Favor Of BMW| FXMAG.COM The momentum might then allow bulls to reclaim the $24.00 round figure. The XAG/USD could eventually climb back to the $24.55-$24.60 heavy supply zone en route to the $25.00 psychological mark for the first time since April 2022 and the next relevant hurdle near the $25.35 region. Silver daily chart  
Market Focus: European Data Releases, ECB Survey, US FOMC Minutes, and UK Bond Supply

The NZD/USD Pair Remains Vulnerable To Extend The Recent Pullback

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 06.02.2023 10:54
NZD/USD stages a modest recovery from a one-month low, though lacks follow-through buying. A stronger USD, along with the risk-off environment, acts as a headwind for the risk-sensitive Kiwi. The fundamental backdrop supports prospects for an extension of the recent decline for the pair. The NZD/USD pair finds some support near the 0.6300 mark and rebounds a few pips from a one-month low touched earlier this Monday. Spot prices, however, struggle to capitalize on the move and remain vulnerable to extend the recent sharp pullback from the highest level since June 2022 touched last week. A combination of factors assists the US Dollar to build on Friday's strong recovery from a nine-month low and caps the upside for the NZD/USD pair. The upbeat US monthly jobs report forced investors to scale back their expectations for an imminent pause in the Fed's policy-tightening cycle. This, along with the prevalent risk-off environment, further underpins the safe-haven buck and acts as a headwind for the risk-sensitive Kiwi. The headline NFP print surpassed even the most optimistic estimates and showed that the US economy added 517K new jobs in January. Furthermore, the unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 3.4% during the reported month and pointed to the underlying strength in the US labor market. This could allow the Fed to keep raising interest rates, which, in turn, pushes the US Treasury bond yields higher and continues to benefit the greenback. Meanwhile, expectations that the US central bank will stick to its hawkish stance for longer fuel concerns about economic headwinds stemming from the continuous rise in borrowing costs. Adding to this, unimpressive quarterly earnings reports from tech companies leads to a further decline in the equity markets. The fundamental backdrop seems tilted firmly in favour of the USD bulls and supports prospects for additional losses for the NZD/USD pair. Read next: The US Judge Denied The FTC's Request, Giving The Meta An Important Victory| FXMAG.COM There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Monday, leaving the greenback at the mercy of the US bond yields. Apart from this, the broader risk sentiment might influence the USD price dynamics and contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around the NZD/USD pair.
USD/CAD - Canadian economy added 41,400 jobs beating expectations

The Downside Of The USD/CAD Pair Remains Limited

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 06.02.2023 09:57
USD/CAD struggles to capitalize on a modest bullish gap opening on Monday. An uptick in crude oil prices underpins the Loonie and acts as a headwind. A combination of factors continues to benefit the USD and lends support. The USD/CAD pair fills the modest bullish gap opening on Monday and retreats to the 1.3400 mark during the early part of the European session. Crude oil prices edge higher and recover a part of Friday's slide to over a one-month low, which, in turn, is seen underpinning the commodity-linked Loonie and acting as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair. The downside, however, remains cushioned amid strong follow-through US Dollar buying interest. In fact, the USD Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, builds on Friday's solid recovery from a nine-month low and continues to draw support from a combination of factors. The upbeat US jobs data could allow the Fed to stick to its hawkish stance and keep raising rates. The expectations push the US Treasury bond yields higher, which, along with the risk-off environment, is seen benefitting the safe-haven greenback. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD pair is to the upside and any meaningful slide is likely to get bought into. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Monday, leaving the USD at the mercy of the US bond yields and the broader market risk sentiment. Apart from this, traders will take cues from oil price dynamics to grab short-term opportunities around the USD/CAD pair.
The EUR/JPY Pair Is Expected To Start A New Zig-Zag Correction

The EUR/JPY Pair Is Expected Limited Upside Movement

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 06.02.2023 09:49
EUR/JPY buyers keep the reins at five-week high despite recent struggle to overcome 100-DMA. Bullish MACD signals, sustained rebound from multi-day-old horizontal support keeps buyers hopeful. Convergence of previous support line from March, descending resistance line from late October appears crucial resistance. EUR/JPY grinds higher past 142.00 as bulls struggle to cross the 100-DMA heading into Monday’s European session. In doing so, the cross-currency pair justifies the bullish MACD signals, as well as a clear bounce off a horizontal support line, stretched from late September 2022, to lure the pair buyers. However, the 100-DMA challenges the EUR/JPY upside around the 143.00 threshold. In the case where the EUR/JPY prices remain firmer past 143.00, a convergence of an 11-month-old previous support line and a downward-sloping resistance line from late October 2022, around 145.00, could challenge the pair’s further upside. It’s worth noting that the EUR/JPY run-up beyond 145.00 won’t hesitate to challenge the late 2022 peak surrounding 148.40 while aiming for the 150.00 psychological magnet. On the flip side, pullback moves may initially aim for the 140.00 round figure before testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s March-October 2022 upside, near 139.23. Following that, the aforementioned horizontal support line comprising lows marked since late September 2022, near 137.35-30, will be in focus. Even if the EUR/JPY bears conquer the 137.30 support, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 133.55 can act as the last defense of the buyers. EUR/JPY: Daily chart Trend: Limited upside expected
USD/JPY Pair Has Rebounded Firmly From The Upward-Sloping Trendline

The USD/JPY Pair Seems Poised To Register Losses

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 03.02.2023 09:55
USD/JPY oscillates in a narrow range and is influenced by a combination of diverging forces. A modest USD uptick lends support, though weaker US bond yields cap gains ahead of NFP. Expectations for a hawkish shift by the BoJ underpin the JPY and further act as a headwind. The USD/JPY pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest bounce from the vicinity of the 128.00 mark, or a two-week low and oscillates in a narrow range on Friday. Spot prices seesaw between tepid gains/minor losses and hold steady above mid-128.00s through the early European session. The US Dollar edges higher on the last day of the week and looks to build on its recovery from a nine-month low touched on Thursday, which, in turn, is seen acting as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair. The USD uptick could be attributed to some repositioning trade ahead of the closely-watched US monthly jobs report, due for release later during the early North American session. The US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data released on Thursday pointed to the underlying strength in the labor market and boosted expectations for strong Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). This, in turn, forced investors to re-evaluate their expectations for future rate hikes by the Fed and lend some support to the USD. That said, weaker US Treasury bond yields cap gains for the buck. Read next: Santander Bank Polska Shareholders Can Expect A Solid Dividend, The ETH Liquid Staking Narrative Is Already Going Strong| FXMAG.COM The Japanese Yen, on the other hand, continues to draw support from expectations that high inflation may invite a more hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) later this year. The bets were lifted by Japan's Nationwide core inflation, which reached its highest annualized print since December 1981. This is seen as another factor keeping a lid on the USD/JPY pair, at least for now. Bullish traders also seem reluctant to place fresh bets in the wake of the overnight breakdown below a symmetrical triangle and ahead of the key US macro data. Nevertheless, the USD/JPY pair seems poised to register losses for the first time in three weeks.
Technical analysis of Silver by Alexandros Yfantis - May 5th

Silver Price Analysis: Silver Sticks To A Mildly Positive Tone

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 03.02.2023 09:40
Silver edges higher on Friday, albeit the intraday uptick lacks follow-through. The overnight failure near the $24.50 supply zone warrants caution for bulls .Sustained break below the $23.00 mark is needed to confirm negative bias. Silver attracts some buyers near the 50-day SMA on Friday and stalls the previous day's retracement slide from its highest level since April 2022. The white metal sticks to a mildly positive tone through the early European session, though the intraday uptick lacks bullish conviction. Looking at the broader picture, the XAG/USD has been oscillating in a familiar band over the past one-and-half month or so, forming a rectangle pattern on the daily chart. This points to indecision among traders and warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets. The overnight failure to find acceptance above the $24.50 supply zone validates the trading range resistance, which should now act as a pivotal point. Given that technical indicators on the daily chart have just started drifting in the negative territory, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond the said barrier before placing bullish bets. The XAG/USD might then aim to reclaim the $25.00 psychological mark for the first time since April 2022. The momentum could get extended towards the next relevant hurdle near the $25.35 region en route to the $26.00 round figure. On the flip side, any further slide below the $23.40-$23.30 horizontal zone might continue to find decent support near the $23.00-$22.95 region. This is followed by support near the $22.75 area, which if broken decisively could drag the XAG/USD to the next relevant support near the $22.20-$22.15 zone ahead of the $22.00 mark. Silver daily chart  
UBS buys Credit Suisse for $3.2bn. Last week was the worst one for equity markets in 2023

The Swiss Franc (CHF) Asset Is Struggling To Extend Gains

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 03.02.2023 09:36
USD/CHF is oscillating in a narrow range below 0.9150 as volatility squeezes ahead of US NFP data. The demand for US government bonds is accelerating as the street is considering continuation price index softening. SNB Jordan has confirmed further interest rate hikes amid rising inflationary pressures. The USD/CHF pair is displaying a lackluster action below 0.9150 in the early European session after a gradual upside move. The Swiss franc asset is struggling to extend gains as investors are avoiding making significant positions ahead of the release of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. After testing Thursday’s high around 101.55, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is facing fragile barriers in extending its upside journey. S&P500 futures are failing to ease losses recorded in the Asian session, portraying a risk-off market mood. The demand for US government bonds is accelerating as the street is considering a continuation of the slowdown in the price index. This has led to a drop in the 10-year US Treasury yields below 3.38%. Friday’s price action banks upon the release of the US NFP data. Analysts at TD Securities expect a 220K increase in payroll and a modest increase in the Unemployment Rate to 3.6%. The economic catalyst that will be keenly watched by the market participants will be the labor cost index data. As per the consensus, Average Hourly Earnings data is seen at 4.9% vs. the prior release of 4.6% on an annual basis. While monthly data is seen steady at 0.3%. Considering the fact that labor demand is exceeding the supply, higher negotiation power in favor of job seekers could dent the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declining trend. Households will be with higher purchasing power, which could trigger retail demand again. Read next: Santander Bank Polska Shareholders Can Expect A Solid Dividend, The ETH Liquid Staking Narrative Is Already Going Strong| FXMAG.COM On the Swiss franc front, Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas J. Jordan has confirmed further interest rate hikes as price pressures are beyond the tolerance power of the central bank.
The Commodities Feed: Further oil supply disruptions

After An Inventory Distribution Breakdown The Oil Price Witnessed A Sell-Off

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 03.02.2023 09:30
The oil price has printed a fresh intraday low at $75.80 amid a risk-off market mood ahead of US NFP data. West Texas is auctioning in a markdown phase after Wyckoff’s Inventory Distribution breakdown. The 50-period EMA is acting as a major barrier for the oil bulls. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, has refreshed its day’s low at $75.80 in the early European session. The oil price is facing the heat as western central banks have hiked their interest rates further to tame soaring inflation. The asset is expected to test Thursday’s low around $75.30. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is displaying a lackluster performance after reaching to near 101.55 and is awaiting the release of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for fresh impetus. On a four-hour scale, the oil price witnessed a sell-off after an Inventory Distribution breakdown. The inventory distribution in a minor range of $79.50-82.67 indicates a shift of inventory from institutional investors to retail participants. After an inventory distribution breakdown, the asset is in Wyckoff’s markdown phase post a throwback move to near $80.00. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $78.65 has acted as a major barricade for the oil price. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the bearish range of 20.00-40.00 and is indicating more weakness. Read next: USD/JPY Pair Is Trading At 128.48 The Aussie Pair Is Above 0.71$| FXMAG.COM After a sheer decline, a pullback move to near the 10-period EMA around $76.65 will be an optimal selling opportunity, which will drag the asset toward February 2 low at $75.15 followed by the horizontal support placed around January 5 low at $73.00. Alternatively, a rebound move above February 1 high at $79.87 will drive the asset toward January 23 low at $81.19. A breach above the latter will expose the asset for more upside toward January 18 high at $82.67. WTI four-hour chart  
If The Bank Of England Hike Interest Rates Again Later This Month Will Exert Downward Pressure On The EUR/GBP Cross

The Key Central Banks Event Risk Keeps A Lid On Further Gains For The EUR/GBP Cross

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 02.02.2023 09:29
EUR/GBP scales higher for the fourth straight day and touches a fresh multi-month top. Expectations for additional jumbo rate hikes by the ECB continue to underpin the Euro. Speculations that the BoE is nearing the end of the rate-hiking cycle weigh on the GBP. Traders now seem reluctant as the focus shifts to the BoE and the ECB policy decisions. The EUR/GBP cross gains traction for the fourth successive day and climbs to the 0.8900 neighbourhood or its highest level since late September on Thursday. The shared currency continues to draw support from expectations for additional jumbo rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) in the coming months. The bets were reaffirmed by the recent hawkish commentary by several ECB officials, which, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the EUR/GBP cross. The British Pound's relative underperformance could further be attributed to speculations that the Bank of England (BoE) is nearing the end of the current rate-hiking cycle. That said, the prevalent US Dollar selling bias lends some support to the Sterling Pound. Furthermore, signs of inflationary pressures in the Eurozone might have forced investors to scale back expectations for a more aggressive policy tightening by the ECB. This, along with reluctance ahead of the key central bank event risk, keeps a lid on any further gains for the EUR/GBP cross. This warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of the ongoing move-up. Both the BoE and the ECB are scheduled to announce their policy decisions during the mid-European session this Thursday. The market focus, however, will be on clues about the future rate hike path, which will determine the next leg of a directional move for the EUR/GBP cross. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop favours bullish traders, though a sustained move beyond the 0.8900 round-figure mark is needed to support prospects for a further near-term appreciating move.
USD/JPY Pair Has Rebounded Firmly From The Upward-Sloping Trendline

The USD/JPY Pair Dropped To Its Lowest Levels In Two Weeks

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 02.02.2023 09:16
USD/JPY prints three-day losing streak despite recent bounce off weekly low. BoJ’s Wakatabe appears determined to tame inflation, praises YCC move. US 10-year Treasury bond yields dribble around two-week low. Second-tier US data, other central bank announcements can please Yen bears before Friday’s US NFP USD/JPY pares intraday losses around 128.60 during the three-day downtrend as the market slips into consolidation mode ahead of the second round of central bank dossier amid early Thursday. The Yen pair dropped to its lowest levels in two weeks earlier in the day while extending the Federal Reserve (Fed) induced losses amid downbeat Treasury bond yields. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields slumped the most in two weeks while testing the lowest levels in a fortnight the previous day after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced its dovish hike of 0.25%. The US central bank unveiled receding fears of inflation and Chairman Jerome Powell showed readiness for cutting the rates if inflation drops faster, which in turn drowned the US Dollar and yields. The same propelled the risk-on mood and favored Wall Street bulls. On the other hand, hawkish comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials also favored the GBP/JPY bears. That said, Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe has said the BoJ will continue to conduct monetary policy to achieve 2% inflation accompanied by wage growth. The Japanese central bank has recently conducted multiple bond market moves to defend the Yields Curve Control (YCC) policy. BoJ’s Wakatabe was recently heard praising the YCC move of the BoJ. It should be noted, however, that the comments from BoJ’s Wakatabe also ruled out the market’s fears of any immediate move, which in turn allowed USD/JPY to lick the Fed-inflicted wounds. Amid these plays, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains while Japan’s Nikkei 225 follows the suit as traders await another round of central bank announcements, this time from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE). In addition to the central bank news, US Factory Orders for December, expected 2.3% versus -1.8% prior, and the US Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity for the fourth quarter (Q4), expected 2.4% versus 0.8% prior. Above all, Friday’s US jobs report for January will be crucial to follow for clear directions. Technical analysis The successful downside break of the 13-day-old ascending trend line, around 129.40 by the press time, directs USD/JPY bears towards the previous monthly low of near 127.20.
Central Banks and Inflation: Lessons from History and Current Realities

The Mass Strikes By Various UK Workers' Unions Exert Downside Pressure On The GBP/JPY Prices

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 02.02.2023 09:11
GBP/JPY seesaws around a fortnight low during three-day downtrend. US 10-year Treasury bond yields dropped the most in two weeks on dovish Fed. Hawkish concerns from BoJ, downbeat UK data and workers’ strikes weigh on prices. BoE is expected to announce 0.50% rate hike but hints for policy pivot will be crucial to watch. GBP/JPY remains depressed around 159.20 even as further downside stalls ahead of the key Bank of England (BoE) Monetary policy announcements, up for publishing on Thursday. That said, the cross-currency pair traces a corrective move in the Treasury bond yields while portraying the market’s cautious mood ahead of the key events. It’s worth noting that the US 10-year Treasury yields slumped the most in two weeks while testing the lowest levels in a fortnight the previous day after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced its dovish hike of 0.25%. The US central bank unveiled receding fears of inflation and Chairman Jerome Powell showed readiness for cutting the rates if inflation drops faster. The same propelled the risk-on mood and favored Wall Street bulls. Other than the strong yields, hawkish comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials also favored the GBP/JPY bears. That said, Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe has said the BoJ will continue to conduct monetary policy to achieve 2% inflation accompanied by wage growth. The Japanese central bank has recently conducted multiple bond market moves to defend the Yields Curve Control (YCC) policy. Elsewhere, the mass strikes by various UK workers' unions challenge the already struggling economy and exert downside pressure on the GBP/JPY prices. “Up to half a million British teachers, civil servants, and train drivers walked out over pay in the largest coordinated strike action for a decade on Wednesday, with unions threatening more disruption as the government digs its heels in over pay demands,” said Reuters. On the same line, the downbeat prints of S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI, which confirmed a consecutive sixth monthly contraction in factory output by flashing 47.0 figure versus 46.7 initial forecasts also pleased the GBP/JPY bears. “Weak demand from clients at home and abroad plus strong price inflation and a shortage of raw materials and staff all weighed on production. Brexit and port problems hurt exports while demand from China was particularly weak,” S&P Global said per Reuters. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains while Japan’s Nikkei 225 follows the suit as traders await another round of central bank comments. That said, the BoE’s 0.50% rate hike is already given and hence the Cable sellers will be more interested in hearing about the easy rate hikes, as well as policy pivot. Other than the BoE, risk catalysts and bond market moves will also be crucial for the GBP/JPY traders. Technical analysis A sustained reversal from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 161.55 by the press time, directs GBP/JPY bears toward an upward-sloping support line from late September 2022, close to 157.40.
Decline of Canadian retails sales plays in favour of holding the rates by Bank of Canada

The USD/CAD Pair Bulls Are Likely To Remain Skeptical

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 02.02.2023 09:04
USD/CAD holds lower grounds near 2.5-month bottom, fades bounce off 200-EMA of late. Clear downside break of short-term key support line favors sellers. 50-EMA holds the key to bull’s conviction, 1.3700 appears a tough nut to crack for them. USD/CAD remains pressured around the lowest levels since mid-November 2022 as it pokes the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) during early Thursday. In doing so, the Loonie pair prints mild losses during the three-day losing streak. It’s worth noting that the quote’s sustained trading below the 50-EMA and a clear break of the eight-month-old ascending support line seems to keep the USD/CAD bears hopeful. Also favoring the sellers is the absence of an oversold RSI (14) line. That said, the Loonie pair bears are very much capable of breaking the aforementioned key 200-EMA support surrounding 1.3260. However, multiple levels marked since July 2022, surrounding 1.3230-20, portray strong support for the USD/CAD sellers to break if they wish to keep the reins. Following that, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s April-October 2022 run-up near the 1.3000 psychological magnet will be a crucial level to lure the USD/CAD bears. On the contrary, a daily closing beyond the support-turned-resistance line from June 2022, close to 1.3320 by the press time, could activate the pair’s corrective bounce. Even so, the USD/CAD bulls are likely to remain skeptical unless witnessing a daily closing beyond the 50-EMA level surrounding 1.3450. In a case where the quote crosses the 1.3450 hurdle, the odds of its rally toward the multiple hurdles nearing 1.3700 can’t be ruled out. USD/CAD: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected
The AUD/USD Pair’s Downside Remains Off The Table

The AUD/USD Pair’s Downside Remains Off The Table

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 02.02.2023 09:02
AUD/USD clings to mild gains at multi-day top, sidelined of late. Australia Building Permits came in firmer during December. Market sentiment dwindles as traders lick Fed-induced wounds ahead of ECB, BoE. US Factory Orders, hints for Friday’s NFP could entertain Aussie pair traders. AUD/USD remains sidelined at the highest levels since June 2022, mildly bid near 0.7140 during early Thursday, as bulls take a breather after the biggest daily jump in a month. In doing so, the risk-barometer pair portrays the market’s inaction while keeping the Federal Reserve (Fed) inspired gains. Other than the Fed’s dovish rate hike, firmer prints of Aussie housing data also favor the AUD/USD buyers. That said, Australia’s Building Permits rose 18.5% MoM and improved to -3.8% YoY in December versus -9.0% and -15.1% respective priors. Elsewhere, the Fed announced a 0.25% rate hike and matched the market forecast. However, the interesting part was lying in the Monetary Policy Statement which stated that the inflation “has eased somewhat but remains elevated”. Following the initial Fed announcements, the US Dollar paused the early Wednesday’s rebound. However, major moves took place on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments  as he said “We can declare that a deflationary process has begun.” The policymaker also accepts the need for rate cuts during late 2023 if inflation comes down much faster. It should be observed that Fed Chair suggested that a couple more rate hikes are needed to reach the policy pivot but markets seem to ignore the fact. As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) came out dovish, Wall Street rallied and the US 10-year Treasury yields slumped the most in two weeks while testing the lowest levels in a fortnight. Further, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains around the highest levels since August 2022, tested the previous day. Looking ahead, AUD/USD traders may witness a lackluster day ahead of the monetary policy meetings of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) as they both are likely to propel the market moves. In addition to that, US Factory Orders for December, were expected 2.3% versus -1.8% prior and the US Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity for the fourth quarter (Q4), expected 2.4% versus 0.8% prior. Above all, Friday’s US jobs report for January will be crucial to follow for clear directions. Technical analysis Although the overbought RSI tests AUD/USD bulls, the pair’s downside remains off the table unless witnessing a daily closing below the six-month-old horizontal support surrounding 0.7130-25.
Rates Spark: Action at Both Ends of the Curve - US 10yr Treasury Yield and European Rates

Lower Curde Oil Price Support The Indian Rupee (INR)

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 02.02.2023 09:01
USD/INR has shown a rebound move as the USD Index has gauged an intermediate cushion around 100.50. Fresh signals of a decline in inflation projections indicate that the Fed might pause the rate hike cycle. The Indian government has trimmed its fiscal deficit target to 5.9% of GDP below the prior target of 6.4%. The USD/INR pair has rebounded after dropping to near 81.65 in the Asian session. The asset has found demand as the US Dollar Index (DXY) has shown signs of a pullback move after refreshing its nine-month low at 100.50.  The USD Index is still in an extremely negative trajectory, therefore, the pullback move could be capitalized as a selling opportunity by the market participants. S&P500 futures are holding the majority of their extra gains recorded in the Tokyo session above the stellar gains recorded on Wednesday, portraying that the risk-appetite theme is extremely solid. The demand for US government bonds is declining, which has pushed 10-year US Treasury yields above 3.41%. Read next: India's Adani Group May Have Passed A Key Test, Positive EU CPI Report| FXMAG.COM In its interest rate decision, the Federal Reserve (Fed) slowed down its policy tightening pace again to 25 basis points (bps) after slowing it already to 50 bps in December’s meeting. Fed chair Jerome Powell has confirmed that the policy tightening cycle will continue for now as the central bank wants to strengthen itself in the battle against inflation. While the street is expecting that the Fed might pause its interest rate hiking spree due to the availability of various evidence of further inflation softening. On the Indian rupee front, Union Budget presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman failed to provide strength to the Indian equities. According to the Fiscal Budget 2023-24, the administration has increased the scale of tax slabs, which will support individuals having annual earnings up to Rs. 7 lakhs. Apart from that, the government has trimmed the Fiscal Deficit target to 5.9% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the 6.4% announced in the prior period.  A lower fiscal deficit target might strengthen the Indian Rupee ahead. Meanwhile, the oil price has turned sideways after a recovery move from below $76.50. On Wednesday, the oil price plunged after the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a build-up of oil stockpiles by 4.14M for the week ending January 27. It is worth noting that India is one of the leading importers of oil and lower oil price support the Indian rupee.
Technical analysis of Silver by Alexandros Yfantis - May 5th

The Positive Momentum Of Silver Could Get Extended Further

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 01.02.2023 10:16
Silver stalls the overnight recovery move near the $23.70-80 support breakpoint. The technical setup warrants some caution before placing fresh directional bets. A break below the $23.00 mark is needed to support prospects for deeper losses. Silver struggles to capitalize on the previous day's goodish rebound from sub-$23.00 levels, or over a one-week low and oscillates in a narrow band through the early European session on Wednesday. The white metal is currently placed just above the mid-$23.00s, consolidating around the 200-hour SMA. From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD remains capped near the $23.70-$23.80 support breakpoint, marking the lower end of a short-term ascending trend channel. The said area might act as a pivotal point for traders, which if cleared decisively should pave the way for some meaningful upside. The XAG/USD might then aim to surpass the $24.00 round figure and retest the multi-month top, around the $24.50-$24.55 zone touched in January. The positive momentum could get extended further and allow bullish traders to reclaim the $25.00 psychological mark for the first time since April 2022. That said, neutral technical indicators on daily/4-hour charts warrant some caution before positioning for a further near-term appreciating move. Moreover, the recent rangebound price action witnessed since December 21 points to indecision among traders over the next leg of a directional move for the XAG/USD. Read next: AUD/USD Pair Remains Under Strong Selling Pressure, The EUR/USD Pair Has Been Falling But Remains Above 1.08$| FXMAG.COM In the meantime, the $23.30 area might now protect the immediate downside ahead of the overnight low, around the $23.00-$22.95 region. This is closely followed by support near the $22.75 region, which if broken decisively will make the XAG/USD vulnerable to fall towards the $22.20-$22.15 support. Silver 1-hour chart  
Analysis Of The AUD/USD Pair By Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang And Senior FX Strategist Peter Chia

A Softer Risk Tone Might Hold Back Bulls From Placing Aggressive Bets Around The risk-Sensitive Aussie (AUD)

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 01.02.2023 10:09
AUD/USD gains some follow-through traction on Wednesday amid a modest USD downtick. Bets for smaller rate hikes by the Fed continue to weigh on the buck and lend some support. The cautious market mood might cap gains for the risk-sensitive Aussie ahead of the FOMC. The AUD/USD pair builds on the previous day's goodish rebound from the 0.6985 area, or over a one-week low and gains some follow-through traction on Wednesday. Spot prices climb to the 0.7075 region during the early European session, though any subsequent move up is more likely to remain capped ahead of the key central bank event risk. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its decision at the end of a two-day meeting on Wednesday and is expected to further moderate the pace of its rate-hiking cycle. Bets for a smaller 25 bps lift-off were cemented by the US wage growth data released on Tuesday, which showed that labor costs increased less than expected in the fourth quarter. The recent US macro data, however, point to a resilient economy and back the case for the Fed to stick to its hawkish stance for longer. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the accompanying policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments at the post-meeting press conference. Investors will look for cues about the Fed's future rate-hike path, which will play a key role in influencing the US Dollar price dynamics and determining the near-term trajectory for the AUD/USD pair. In the meantime, a modest USD downtick is seen acting as a tailwind for the major and contributing to the intraday positive move. That said, a softer risk tone - as depicted by a mildly negative sentiment around the equity markets - might hold back bulls from placing aggressive bets around the risk-sensitive Aussie. This makes it prudent to wait for a strong follow-through buying before confirming that the AUD/USD pair's pullback from the highest level since June 2022 has run its course. Traders now look to the US macro data - the ADP report, ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings - for some impetus.
SNB stands firm in the face of market turbulence with 50bp rate hike

The USD/CHF Pair Is Expected A Further Downside Movement

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 01.02.2023 10:00
USD/CHF remains on the back foot despite latest inaction. Sustained break of fortnight-old ascending trend line, U-turn from 200-EMA favor sellers. Buyers need successful trading below 61.8% Fibonacci retracement to retake control. USD/CHF holds lower ground near 0.9160 during early Wednesday, following a clear downside break of the previous key support line. The Swiss currency (CHF) pair’s latest inaction could be linked to the market’s cautious mood ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. However, the bearish MACD signals and a U-turn from the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) seem to join the trend line break to keep sellers hopeful. That said, multiple lows marked during January 18-20, close to 0.9150-45, seem to restrict the immediate downside of the USD/CHF pair. Following that, a previous monthly low, as well as the yearly bottom, near 0.9085 will be in focus. It should be noted that the 0.9100 threshold could act as an additional downside filter for the pair traders to watch during the weakness past 0.9145 while the August 2021 low near 0.9018 may challenge the USD/CHF bears past 0.9085. Meanwhile, recovery moves need to cross the previous support line from January 18, close to 0.9205 by the press time, to recall the pair buyers. Even so, the 200-EMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s January moves, respectively near 0.9270 and 0.9285, could probe the USD/CHF upside. USD/CHF: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected
Market Focus: European Data Releases, ECB Survey, US FOMC Minutes, and UK Bond Supply

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Remained Extremely Volatile

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 01.02.2023 09:53
NZD/USD is scaling towards 0.6450 as the USD Index has retreated after a short-lived pullback. Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to announce a 25 bps interest rate hike to 4.50-4.75%. Reserve Bank of New Zealand might continue its hawkish stance despite weak Employment data. NZD/USD is testing the consolidation breakdown and is likely to display a fresh downside ahead. NZD/USD has stretched its recovery above the critical resistance of 0.6440 in the early European session. The Kiwi asset displayed a recovery move after testing Tuesday’s low around 0.6415 due to subdued performance by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The USD Index is demonstrating topsy-turvy moves in a 101.70-101.80 range and is likely to display a downside break due to less anxiety among investors than usual ahead of the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed). S&P500 futures are failing to square off their losses that emerged in the Asian session, portraying a caution despite overall optimism in the market mood. Widely anticipated expression of further decline in the policy tightening pace by the Federal Reserve is not compelling the market participants to dump risk-sensitive assets. However, emerging United States recession fears due to the expectation of further stretch in the interest rate have shifted investors to the sidelines. The return generated by 10-year US Treasury bonds is hovering around 3.51% after a mild correction. Lower Labor cost and consumer spending bolsters the case of the less-hawkish Fed’s policy The Employment Cost Index (Q4) released on Tuesday was trimmed to 1.0% vs. the consensus of 1.1% and the prior release of 1.2%. Easing negotiation power for labor costs is music to the ears for the Federal Reserve, which is working hard to achieve price stability in the United States. Also, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index released last week showed that consumer spending contracted in December Christmas celebrations, which claims that the downside trend in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will continue further. Economists at Goldman Sachs have come up with expectations for dictations by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell in February’s monetary policy meeting. They believe that "Since the FOMC last met in December, incoming data on wage growth and inflation have been encouraging, while signals on activity growth have been mixed and at times concerning. This ended up making the case for slowing the pace of rate hikes to 25bp this week quite easy.” For further guidance, Goldman Sachs expects two additional 25bp hikes in March and May, but fewer might be needed if weak business confidence depresses hiring and investment. US Employment data remains key ahead of Federal Reserve policy The tight US labor market is losing its luster as firms are ditching the recruitment process due to a bleak economic outlook. Higher interest rates and lower retail demand has already forced the firms to suspend their expansion plans for some time. Also, a few firms are not operating at full capacity, which has trimmed the requirement of hiring fresh talent. This has also trimmed the negotiation power of employees to determine talent acquisition costs. As per the consensus, the US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) (Jan) Employment data is seen at 170K, significantly lower than the former release of 235K. The declining scale of job additions due to weaker economic projections is going to delight the Federal Reserve as it will trim inflation projections further. Apart from the Employment data, US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) will be of significant importance. Manufacturing activities are expected to be slowed to 48.0 vs. 48.4 in the prior release as firms are not deploying their entire operating capacity. However, the New Order Index is seen higher at 46.1 vs. the former release of 45.2. An upbeat forward demand might provide some cushion to the USD Index. Read next: AUD/USD Pair Remains Under Strong Selling Pressure, The EUR/USD Pair Has Been Falling But Remains Above 1.08$| FXMAG.COM New Zealand Dollar holds strength despite weak job data The New Zealand Dollar remained extremely volatile in the Asian session due to the release of the Employment data (Q4) and Caixin Manufacturing PMI data. The Employment Change dropped to 0.2% from the expectations of 0.3% and the former release of 1.3%. While the Unemployment Rate has increased to 3.4% from the consensus and the prior release of 3.3%.  Apart from that Quarterly Labor cost index has landed at 1.1% lower than the estimates of 1.3% but similar to the prior release of 1.1%. Steady employment bills and declining labor demand might delight the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which is working with immense enthusiasm and zeal to achieve price stability. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr might continue hiking interest rates as the inflation rate is still above 7%. The Caixin manufacturing PMI landed at 49.2 lower than the expectations of 49.5 but higher than the former release of 49.0. It is worth noting that New Zealand is one of the leading trading partners of China and an unimpressive PMI has a vital impact on the New Zealand Dollar. NZD/USD technical outlook NZD/USD has sensed selling interest after testing the strength of the consolidation breakdown in the 0.6450-0.6470 range on a four-hour scale. On a broader note, the kiwi asset demonstrated signs of bearish reversal after a Double Top chart pattern around December 13 high at 0.6515. An absence of stellar buying interest while attempting to surpass the 0.6515 resistance triggered selling pressure for the New Zealand Dollar. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6460 is acting as a major barricade for the New Zealand Dollar. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has also slipped into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which indicates that the downside momentum is active now
Weaker Crude Oil Prices Undermine The Loonie Pair (USD/CAD)

The USD/CAD Pair Is On The Way To Late 2022 Low

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 01.02.2023 09:47
USD/CAD licks its wounds after falling the most in a week. Oil price struggles despite softer US Dollar as markets brace for OPEC+ verdict. Softer US data, yields join bearish bias for the Fed to lure Loonie pair sellers. Canada GDP appeared unimpressive but PMIs may offer intermediate moves. USD/CAD remains defensive around 1.3310 amid sluggish markets on early Wednesday, treading water after reversing from a one-week high the previous day. The Loonie pair’s latest inaction portrays the cautious mood ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. Also challenging the quote is the Oil traders' anxiety before the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, known collectively as OPEC+. That said, the WTI crude oil, Canada’s main export earner, grinds higher past $79.00 following a strong reversal from the three-week on Tuesday. It should be noted that Reuters has already turned down the odds of any change in the OPEC+ JMMC’s previous verdict favoring the supply cuts from major producers. On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains indecisive after reversing from a one-week high as an early signal for the US inflation printed downbeat figures. That said, US Employment Cost Index (ECI) for the fourth quarter (Q4) eased to 1.0% versus 1.1% market forecasts and 1.2% prior readings. Further, the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence eased to 107.10 in January versus 108.3 prior. It should be noted that no major attention could be given to the US Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for January which rose to 44.3 versus 41 expected and 44.9 previous readings. At home, Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for November grew by 0.1% MoM, matching October's expansion of 0.1% but rose past the market expectation of 0%. It should be observed that the pre-event cautiousness joins China’s Consecutive sixth below 50.0 print of the Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which in turn probes the Oil price and put a floor under the USD/CAD. Additionally, mildly offered S&P 500 Futures act as an additional challenge for the Loonie pair sellers. On the contrary, downbeat yields challenge the US Dollar bulls ahead of the key event. The benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond yields remain sluggish near 3.51% and defend the previous day’s pullback. Looking forward, dovish bias over the Fed joins the likely unimpressive OPEC+ meeting to keep USD/CAD bears hopeful. Also important will be the monthly PMI data for the US and Canada. Technical analysis Unless providing a daily close beyond the one-month-old descending resistance line, close to 1.3380 by the press time, USD/CAD is on the way to late 2022 low surrounding 1.3225.
Exploring Silver's Retreat: Analyzing the Path to Historic Highs

The Silver May Be Vulnerable To Weaken Further

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 31.01.2023 10:16
Silver meets with a fresh supply on Tuesday and seems vulnerable to sliding further. Last week’s breakdown below the $23.80-$23.75 confluence favours bearish traders. A sustained move back above the $24.00 mark is needed to negate the negative bias. Silver comes under heavy selling pressure on Tuesday and slides back to the $23.30-$23.20 support zone during the early part of the European session. The technical setup, meanwhile, favours bearish traders and supports prospects for a further near-term depreciating move. The XAG/USD last week confirmed a breakdown below the $23.70-$23.80 confluence support, comprising the 200-hour SMA and the lower end of a short-term ascending channel. The overnight failure near the said support breakpoint, now turned resistance, adds credence to the negative outlook. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction. Some follow-through selling below the $23.30-$23.20 area will reaffirm the bearish outlook and make the XAG/USD vulnerable to weaken further below the $23.00 mark. The next relevant support is pegged near the $22.75 area, below which the downward trajectory could get extended and drag the white metal towards the $22.20-$22.15 intermediate support en route to the $22.00 level. Read next: Toyota's Transition To Electric Will Come With A Change In CEO| FXMAG.COM Meanwhile, Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 1-hour chart has moved on the verge of breaking into oversold territory. This makes it prudent to wait for some intraday consolidation or a modest rebound before positioning for additional losses. That said, any attempted recovery might now confront stiff resistance near the $23.60-$23.70 region, or the 100-hour SMA. Any subsequent move up could attract fresh sellers and remain capped near the ascending trend-channel support breakpoint, currently around the $24.00 mark. The latter should act as a pivotal point, which if cleared decisively is likely to trigger a short-covering rally. The XAG/USD might then aim to retest the multi-month to, around the $24.50-$24.55 area touched in January. Silver 1-hour chart  
The USD/JPY Price Seems To Be Optimistic

Analysis Of The USD/JPY Pair Situation

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 31.01.2023 10:05
USD/JPY picks up bids to pare intraday losses, up for the third week in a row. Yields remain pressured, stock futures grind higher amid growth optimism, Covid-linked news. BoJ Chief Contestant warn of government meddling to defend JPY. Second-tier US data may entertain traders but FOMC is the key. USD/JPY trims daily loss around 130.30 during early Tuesday morning in Europe as mixed sentiment in the market joins a pause in the US Treasury bond yields. Adding to the Yen pair traders’ confusion are the fresh fears of government meddling to defend the Japanese currency. While firmer Japan data recently fuelled fears of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) exit from ultra-easy monetary policy, backed by a suggestion from the key policymakers, fears of government’s defense of Japanese Yen (JPY) probe the pair traders. “Hirohide Yamaguchi, among the top candidates to become the next Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor, warned about the danger of signing a joint policy document with the government when he was deputy governor in 2012, minutes of that meeting showed on Tuesday,” per Reuters. Elsewhere, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently raised its global growth estimates while also saying that the emerging markets' growth slowdown bottomed out in 2022. The global lender also stated that estimates come with the backdrop of a slight increase in the 2023 global growth outlook helped by "surprisingly resilient" demand in the United States and Europe, an easing of energy costs and the reopening of China's economy after Beijing abandoned its strict COVID-19 restrictions. It’s worth mentioning that the IMF’s fears over inflation seem to tame the optimism afterward. On the same line, receding fears of the COVID-19, after the US White House statement suggesting removal of virus-led activity restrictions, also propel the risk barometer USD/JPY pair. However, stronger Japan data underpin the hawkish bias from the BoJ and weigh on the quote. Against this backdrop, the US 10-year Treasury yields struggle to extend a three-day uptrend near 3.54% while the US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats to 102.20 at the latest. Further, the S&P 500 Futures remain mildly offered and so do stocks in the Asia-Pacific region. Looking forward, the US fourth-quarter (Q4) Employment Cost Index (ECI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence gauge for January will be eyed for immediate directions. As per the market consensus, the US Consumer sentiment gauge may improve but a likely softer print of the US ECI, to 1.1% from 1.2%, could strengthen the dovish bias surrounding Fed and can recall the USD/JPY bears. Technical analysis A daily closing beyond the 21-DMA hurdle, currently around 130.40, becomes necessary to keep USD/JPY buyers on the table.
The RBA Is Expected To Raise Rates By 25bp Next Week

The Australian Dollar Is Weighed Down By The Disappointing Domestic Macro Data

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 31.01.2023 10:04
AUD/USD drops to a one-week low on Tuesday and is pressured by a combination of factors. Disappointing Australian Retail Sales figures weigh on the Aussie amid a modest USD strength. Bets for smaller Fed rate hikes keep a lid on the buck and might help limit losses for the major. The AUD/USD pair remains under some selling pressure for the second straight day on Tuesday and extends its recent pullback from the highest level since June 2022 touched last week. The downward trajectory drags spot prices to a one-week low, below mid-0.7000s during the early European session and is sponsored by a combination of factors. The Australian Dollar is weighed down by the disappointing domestic macro data, which showed that Retail Sales tumbled in December. Apart from this, a modest US dollar strength turns out to be another factor exerting some downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair. The prevalent cautious mood is seen driving some haven flows towards the greenback and undermining the risk-sensitive Aussie. The market sentiment remains fragile in the wake of the uncertainty about a strong recovery in the Chinese economy, amid the worst yet COVID-19 outbreak in the country. This, to a larger extent, offsets the better-than-expected Chinese PMI prints for January and does little to impress traders or provide any immediate respite to the China-proxy Australian Dollar, at least for the time being. Read next: Toyota's Transition To Electric Will Come With A Change In CEO| FXMAG.COM The USD uptick, meanwhile, lacks bullish conviction amid rising bets for a smaller 25 bps Fed rate hike move at the end of a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. This, along with the flight to safety, leads to a modest downtick in the US Treasury bond yields and acts as a headwind for the buck. This, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for any further downfall for the AUD/USD pair. Traders might also prefer to move to the sidelines ahead of the critical FOMC monetary policy decision on Wednesday. In the meantime, Tuesday's US economic docket, featuring Chicago PMI and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, will be looked upon for some impetus. This, along with the broader risk sentiment, could drive the USD and produce short-term opportunities around the AUD/USD pair.
Apple Q3 2023 Results – Surpassing Expectations and Aiming for New Heights

Eurozone GDP May Put Challenges For The EUR/GBP Buyers

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 31.01.2023 09:49
EUR/GBP reverses the previous day’s corrective bounce off one-week low. Euro struggles to defend hawks after downbeat German data challenge hawkish ECB bias. IMF’s warning over the UK’s economic conditions challenge EUR/GBP bears. Preliminary readings of Eurozone Q4 GDP will be crucial for immediate directions, ECB vs. BoE battle eyed. EUR/GBP remains depressed around 0.8780, fading the week-start recovery, as traders await Eurozone Q4 GDP for fresh impulse during early Tuesday. The cross-currency pair managed to begin the key week comprising central bank announcements on a positive side amid fears of the UK drama over tax cuts. However, downbeat prints of German GDP, later on, weighed on the prices. That said, Economic Sentiment Indicator for the Euro area improved to 99.9 in January from an upwardly revised 97.1 prior and 97.0 market forecasts. The Consumer Confidence, however, matched 20.9 market forecast and previous readings during the stated month. That said, the Industrial Confidence and Services Sentiment also improved during January. On the other hand, the preliminary readings of Germany’s fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in softer than 0.0% expected and 0.4% prior to -0.2% QoQ. "After the German economy managed to perform well despite difficult conditions in the first three quarters, economic performance slightly decreased in the fourth quarter of 2022", Destatis noted in its publication. The same raises fears of downbeat Eurozone GDP and challenges the EUR/GBP buyers. Alternatively, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) downbeat economic projections for the UK seem to keep the EUR/GBP on the front foot. As per the latest forecasts, the IMF projects the British economy will mark the weakest performance among the Group of Seven (G7) nations. Read next: Glovo Is Planning To Layoff 250 Workers Worldwide, The Middle East Is Already Suffering From A Water Shortage| FXMAG.COM Also read: IMF: Emerging markets growth slowdown bottomed out in 2022, but risks remain Looking forward, the first readings of the Eurozone Q4 GDP, expected 0.0% QoQ versus 0.3%, will offer immediate directions to the EUR/GBP and is likely to witness further weakness unless marking a surprise. However, major attention should be given to Thursday’s monetary policy meetings of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) for clear directions. Technical analysis Although a convergence of the 100-DMA and the 50-DMA provides strong support to the EUR/GBP price around 0.8740-35, recovery remains elusive unless the quote stays below a 12-day-old resistance line, close to 0.8830 at the latest.
The Downside For The AUD/USD Pair Is Likely To Remain Cushioned

The Downside For The AUD/USD Pair Is Likely To Remain Cushioned

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 30.01.2023 10:01
AUD/USD comes under some selling pressure on Monday and hits a fresh daily low in the last hour. A weaker tone around the equity markets is seen exerting pressure on the risk-sensitive Aussie. Bets for smaller Fed rate hikes keep the USD depressed and should help limit losses for the major. The AUD/USD pair attracts some sellers following an early uptick to the 0.7120 area on Monday and remains on the defensive through the early European session on Monday. Spot prices drop to a three-day low, around the 0.7075 region in the last hour, though any meaningful downside still seems elusive. A softer risk tone - as depicted by a weaker trading sentiment around the equity markets - is seen as a key factor driving flows away from the risk-sensitive Aussie. Despite China's move to scale back its strict zero-COVID policy in December, the worst yet COVID-19 outbreak in the country has been fueling uncertainty about a strong economic recovery. This, in turn, tempers investors' appetite for riskier assets and keeps a lid on any optimism in the markets. The downside for the AUD/USD pair, meanwhile, is likely to remain cushioned, at least for now, amid subdued US Dollar price action. In fact, the USD Index, which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, languishes near a nine-month low amid firming expectations for a less aggressive policy tightening by the Fed. The markets seem convinced that the US central bank will soften its hawkish stance and expect a smaller 25 bps rate hike on Wednesday. Read next: A Loss Of $48 Billion In Shares Of The Indian Group Adani As A Result Of The Hindenburg Research Report| FXMAG.COM The bets were lifted by Friday's release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which showed that the Core PCE Price Index fell to the 4.4% YoY rate in December from the 4.7% previous. That said, other US macro data released recently pointed to a resilient economy and backed the case for the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance for longer. Hence, the focus will remain on the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting, which might provide cues on future rate hikes. Heading into the key central bank event risk, traders might refrain from placing aggressive bets and prefer to move to the sidelines. Apart from this, rising odds for an additional rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in February could underpin the Australian dollar and help limit any meaningful corrective pullback for the AUD/USD pair. This makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that spot prices have topped out.
Market Focus: European Data Releases, ECB Survey, US FOMC Minutes, and UK Bond Supply

The Kiwi Asset (NZD/USD) Is Facing Pressure

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 30.01.2023 09:52
NZD/USD is facing hurdles in shifting its auction above 0.6500 amid a recovery in the USD Index. Softening consumer spending has bolstered the expectations of a smaller interest rate hike by the Fed. This week, the release of the NZ Employment data will be of utmost importance. The NZD/USD pair is failing in keeping its auction above the psychological resistance of 0.6500 in the early European session. The Kiwi asset is facing pressure as the US Dollar index (DXY) has shown a perpendicular recovery move after a sheer decline to near 101.40. The recovery move in the USD Index is quite strong and is showing signs of vertical decline in the risk appetite of the market participants. S&P500 futures are continuously adding more losses as investors have underpinned the risk-aversion theme amid soaring volatility ahead of the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed). While the alpha generated by the US government bonds has trimmed as investors are seeing a lower terminal rate than previously anticipated. The 10-year US Treasury yields have dropped to near 3.50%. Softening consumer spending and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index have bolstered the expectations of a smaller interest rate hike by the Fed. It is worth noting that Fed chair Jerome Powell has already trimmed the scale of interest rate hikes in its December monetary policy meeting to 50 basis points (bps) after announcing four consecutive 75 bps rate hikes. The Fed is expected to trim the scale of the interest rate hike further by 25 bps. On the New Zealand front, investors are awaiting the release of the Employment data, which is due on Wednesday. The Employment Change (Q4) is expected to drop to 0.7% from the former release of 1.3%. While the Unemployment Rate is seen unchanged at 3.3%. The New Zealand economy is failing to generate significant employment opportunities amid higher interest rates by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).  
The Loonie Pair (USD/CAD) Takes Clues From The Downbeat Oil Prices

The Loonie Pair (USD/CAD) Takes Clues From The Downbeat Oil Prices

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 30.01.2023 09:46
USD/CAD keeps bounce off 2.5-month low while snapping two-day downtrend. Shift in market sentiment exerts downside pressure on Oil price, favors US Dollar. China-linked headlines entertain traders amid a light calendar. Fed’s dovish hike, softer NFP appears necessary for bears to keep the reins. USD/CAD picks up bids to refresh intraday high around 1.3325 during the first positive day in three heading into Monday’s European session. In doing so, the Loonie pair takes clues from the downbeat Oil prices, Canada’s main export, as well as a rebound in the US Dollar amid the market’s cautious optimism. That said, WTI crude oil takes offers to refresh intraday low near $79.50 as early Asian session optimism, mainly led by China’s return from the one-week-long Lunar New Year (LNY) holidays, fades amid mixed concerns. Read next: A Loss Of $48 Billion In Shares Of The Indian Group Adani As A Result Of The Hindenburg Research Report| FXMAG.COM Also challenging the Oil price could be the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebound from the intraday low while ignoring the US Treasury bond yields. That said, the DXY prints a three-day uptrend near 102.00 but the US 10-year Treasury bond yields retreat from daily tops to 3.50% after the Japanese panel teases hawkish moves of the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Elsewhere, Bloomberg poured cold water on the face of expectations that the holiday season propelled China activities. The analysis stated a few signs of improvement in the Chinese economy despite its second month without Covid Zero curbs. The research, however, marks the Lunar New Year (LNY) holiday season as marking a lid on some activities. Against this backdrop, the US Treasury bond yields retreat from the intraday top but the stock futures print mild losses. Furthermore, the Asia-Pacific shares grind higher and the US Dollar Index (DXY) defends a two-day recovery. Looking forward, risk catalysts are likely to determine short-term market moves ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and Friday’s US jobs report for January. It’s worth noting that headlines surrounding China are an extra burden on the USD/CAD watchers to determine near-term moves. Technical analysis A four-day-old bearish triangle restricts USD/CAD moves between 1.3290 and 1.3330.
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The USD/INR Pair May Witness Further Upside

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 30.01.2023 09:43
USD/INR picks up bids to extend the previous week’s rebound from 2.5-month low. RBI likely to announce 0.25% rate hike in February before ending tightening cycle. Fears of Adani stocks rout, firmer Oil price also weigh on Indian Rupee. Indian budget likely to emphasize deficit reduction, hopes of Fed’s dovish hike caps USD/INR upside. USD/INR portrays a three-day uptrend around 81.70 as traders brace for the key data/events from India and the US during early Monday. Also likely to have underpinned the Indian Rupee (INR) pair’s run-up could be the pessimism surrounding the nation’s equities due to a company-specific move and fears of a downbeat budget for the Fiscal Year 2023-24 (FY). Indian equities slumped to a three-month low after Adani group shares drowned the markets after the Hindenburg Research report triggered a $48 billion rout in shares of the top-tier Indian enterprise. Not only the equity rout but the likely exodus of foreign funds due to the Adani-led slump also weighs on the Indian Rupee (INR). Further, recently firmer prices of Crude Oil, mildly offered near $79.50 by the press time, also favors the USD/INR buyers. On the contrary, mixed US data and cautious mood ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting decision probe the USD/INR bulls. During the last week, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, matched 4.4% YoY market forecast versus 4.7% prior while the monthly figure rose to 0.3% versus 0.2% expected and previous readings. Ahead of that, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) first estimate of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product marked an annualized growth rate of 2.9% versus 2.6% expected and 3.2% prior. On the same line, the Durable Goods Orders jumped 5.6% in December versus the 2.5% market forecast and -1.7% upwardly revised prior. On a different page, China’s return from the one-week-long Lunar New Year (LNY) holidays bring some good news as the nation’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) signaled the end of the Covid wave. On the same line could be the could jump in the Chinese festive demand, of around 12.2% versus the year ago, as well as readiness to bolster economic growth via lending tools, spending and higher imports. Amid these plays, the US Treasury bond yields grind higher but the stock futures print mild losses. Furthermore, the Asia-Pacific shares grind higher but the US Dollar Index (DXY) struggles to extend a two-day recovery while India’s NSE 50 drops near 0.20% intraday at the latest. Moving on, Wednesday becomes the key day for the USD/INR pair traders as Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will unveil the details of India’s Union Budget for the Fiscal Year 2023-24. Ahead of the release, Reuters said, “The Indian government will present a budget on February 1 that will likely put deficit reduction ahead of vote-winning spending, even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi looks towards seeking a rare third term of office in 2024.” Read next: Inflation Is Falling, But Does It Mean That The Fed's February Decision Will Be Dovish?| FXMAG.COM Additionally, the Reserve Bank of India is expected to raise its main interest rate by a modest 25 basis points to 6.50% at its meeting one week after New Delhi's budget, before leaving it at that level for the rest of the year, a Reuters poll of economists found. The same could keep the USD/INR buyers hopeful as policy pivot appears closer. Moving on, USD/INR pair may witness further upside should the Indian budget updates disappoint the markets, which is more likely. However, the expected dovish hike from the Fed and likely weakness in the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) may restrict the pair’s upside moves. Technical analysis The USD/INR pair’s successful trading beyond the 10-DMA, around 81.45 by the press time, keeps the buyers hopeful. However, the 100-DMA, close to 81.85 at the latest, holds the key to the bull’s dominance.
Swiss Inflation Falls Below Expectations; US Markets Closed, Fed Minutes Awaited

The Modest Strength Of The US Dollar Acts As A Headwind For The NZD/USD Pair

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 27.01.2023 09:59
NZD/USD surrenders modest intraday gains amid the emergence of some buying around the USD. Thursday’s upbeat US macro data fuels hawkish Fed expectations and underpins the greenback. A positive risk tone acts as a headwind for the buck and offers support to the risk-sensitive Kiwi. The NZD/USD pair continues with its struggle to find acceptance above the 0.6500 psychological mark and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses on Friday. The pair trades around the 0.6485-0.6480 region during the early European session and remains well within a familiar trading range. A modest US Dollar strength is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the NZD/USD pair, though a generally positive tone around the equity markets limits the downside for the risk-sensitive Kiwi. The greenback draws some support from the mostly upbeat US macro data released on Thursday, which backs the case for the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance for longer. This leads to a further recovery in the US Treasury bond yields and underpins the buck. The robust economic indicators, meanwhile, boost investors' confidence and acts as a headwind for the safe-haven greenback. Furthermore, the markets still seem convinced that the US central bank will slow the pace of its policy tightening. The CME's FedWatch Tool points to a nearly 90% probability for a smaller 25 bps rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting next week. This further contributes to capping the greenback and lends support to the NZD/USD pair. Traders might also be reluctant to place aggressive bets and prefer to wait for the release of the US Core PCE Price Index - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. This, along with the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment, might influence the USD and provide some impetus to the NZD/USD pair. The fundamental backdrop, meanwhile, warrants some caution before confirming that the pair has topped out and positioning for any meaningful corrective pullback.
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The EUR/GBP Pair Is Likely To Witness Further Recovery

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 27.01.2023 09:51
EUR/GBP takes the bids to refresh intraday low after snapping two-day downtrend. Convergence of 200-EMA, immediate descending trend line guards recovery moves. 50% Fibonacci retracement appears the key support for bears to watch. EUR/GBP bulls struggle to retake control as the cross-currency pair renews intraday high near 0.8785 heading into Friday’s European session. In doing so, the quote jostles with the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a downward-sloping resistance line from Wednesday, close to the 0.8785-90 hurdle. It’s worth noting that the receding bearish bias of the MACD and the RSI (14) attempt to regain the 50 level keeps the EUR/GBP buyers hopeful. Also luring the EUR/GBP bulls could be the cross-currency pair’s bounce off the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of December 01, 2022, to January 13, 2023 upside, close to 0.8720. Hence, the quote’s one more attempt to break the two-week-old resistance line, around 0.8840 by the press time, can’t be ruled out. Following that, a run-up to the monthly peak of 0.8897 becomes imminent. Meanwhile, the EUR/GBP pair’s fresh weakness remains unimportant till it stays beyond the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.8722. In a case where EUR/GBP remains bearish past 0.8720, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, also known as the golden ratio, could act as the last defense of the buyers around 0.8680. Overall, EUR/GBP is likely to witness further recovery but the bulls are far from retaking control. EUR/GBP: Four-hour chart Trend: Corrective bounce expected
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The Aussie Pair Investors Have Turned Risk Averse Ahead Of The Release Of The US PCE Price Index Report

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 27.01.2023 09:46
Investors have turned risk-averse ahead of the US PCE Price Index data. The formation of an Ascending Triangle indicates sheer volatility contraction. The RSI (14) has shifted into the 40.00-60.. range, which indicates an exhaustion in the upside momentum. The AUD/USD pair has corrected sharply to near 0.7100 in the early European session. The Aussie asset has sensed selling pressure as investors have turned risk averse ahead of the release of the United States Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data. Meanwhile, an improvement in the safe-haven’s appeal has strengthened the US Dollar Index (DXY). S&P500 futures has demonstrated a sell-off as further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) might accelerate recession fears. The 10-year US Treasury yields has added gains further to near 3.53%. On an hourly scale, AUD/USD is oscillating in an Ascending Triangle chart pattern that indicates a sheer contraction in volatility. The upward-sloping trendline of the chart pattern is plotted from January 25 average price at 0.7061 while the horizontal resistance is placed from January 26 high around 0.7140. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.7110 has overlapped the asset, which indicates a rangebound acution profile. Read next: Trump Returns To Social Media, Meta Will Restore The Former President's Account| FXMAG.COM It is observed that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the 40.00-60.00 range from the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which conveys that the bullish momentum has faded now. Should the asset breaks above January 26 high at 0.7142, Aussie asset will deliver a breakout the Ascending Triangle, which will drive the major towards the round-level resistance of 0.7200. A breach of the latter will expose the asset for more upside toward June 3 high at 0.7283. On the contrary, a downside move below December 29 low at 0.6710 will drag the major further toward December 22 low at 0.6650 followed by November 21 low at 0.6585. AUD/USD hourly chart
Analysis Of The EUR/JPY Pair Movement

The US Core PCE Data Will Be Crucial For The USD/JPY Pair

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 27.01.2023 09:38
USD/JPY retreats towards intraday low, reverses the previous day’s corrective bounce. BoJ extends five-year loans against collateral to financial institutions to defend YCC as JGB rallied after Tokyo inflation. US Dollar traces firmer yields ahead of US Core PCE Price Index for December. USD/JPY prints mild losses around 130.00, after a failed attempt to recover, as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) marks a show of Yield Curve Control (YCC) during early Friday morning in Europe. In doing so, the Japanese central bank extends five-year loans against collateral to financial institutions, from February 01, 2023, to 2028. The BoJ activity could be linked to a jump in the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield to 0.50% after Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) refreshed a 42-year high of 4.3% for January. It’s worth noting that this is the BoJ’s second attempt in January to defend the YCC policy, which in turn suggests further challenges for the ultra-loose monetary policy of the Japanese central bank. Contrary to the BoJ action, a run-up in the US 10-year Treasury bond yields and the market’s rush towards risk-safety, mainly after Thursday’s upbeat US growth numbers, challenges the USD/JPY bears. On the same line could be the cautious mood ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) favorite inflation number, namely the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) – Price Index for December, expected to remain unchanged at 0.2% MoM. Against this backdrop, the US 10-year Treasury yields extend the previous day’s recovery to 3.52% while the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses. That said, Japan’s Nikkei 225 drops 0.12% on a day as it snaps a five-day uptrend. Looking forward, the US Core PCE data will be crucial for the USD/JPY pair as the Fed is ready to announce another 0.25% rate hike in the next week. It should be noted that the downbeat US inflation precursor could confirm the market’s dovish expectations from the US central bank and may exert more downside pressure on the Yen pair. Also read: US December PCE Inflation Preview: Is there room for further US Dollar weakness? Technical analysis Multiple failures to cross the 21-DMA surrounding 130.00 keeps pushing USD/JPY down even as a fortnight-old support line, close to 128.80 at the latest.
The Loonie Pair (USD/CAD) Bounces Off An Upward-Sloping Support Line

The Loonie Pair (USD/CAD) Bounces Off An Upward-Sloping Support Line

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 27.01.2023 09:36
USD/CAD portrays corrective bounce from seven-month-old ascending support line. Downbeat oscillators, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and previous support line guards recovery moves. 100-DMA holds the key to buyer’s conviction while break of 1.3300 could aim for 200-DMA. USD/CAD picks up bids to pare recent losses around the lowest levels in 11 weeks, mildly bid near 1.3340 heading into Friday’s European session. In doing so, the Loonie pair bounces off an upward-sloping support line from early June 2022. However, a convergence of the previous support line from mid-November and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s April-October upside, near 1.3380 by the press time, restricts USD/CAD pair’s recovery. Other than the aforementioned key resistance confluence near 1.3380, the bearish MACD signals and the downward-sloping RSI (14) also challenge the Loonie pair’s corrective bounce. Even if the USD/CAD buyers manage to cross the 1.3380 hurdle, the 100-DMA surrounding 1.3525 will be crucial to stop the upside momentum, a break of which won’t hesitate to challenge the monthly high of near 1.3685. On the flip side, a daily closing below the stated multi-month-old support line, close to 1.3300 at the latest, could quickly fetch the USD/CAD pair towards the 200-DMA support of around 1.3210. In a case where the USD/CAD remains bearish past 1.3210, the 1.3200 round figure may act as the last defense of buyers before relinquishing control. USD/CAD: Daily chart Trend: Limited recovery expected
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The USD/INR Pair Is Expected To Extend Gains

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 27.01.2023 09:27
USD/INR has surpassed the critical hurdle of 81.60 amid sheer recovery in the USD Index. Anxiety ahead of the US PCE data has trimmed the risk appetite of the market participants. Softening US core PCE price index might not surprise investors as core US CPI and PPI were also trimmed. The USD/INR pair has witnessed a respopsive buying interest after droping to near 81.40. The asset has been scaled above 81.60 and is expected to extend gains, following the footprints of the US Dollar Index (DXY). The risk appetite of the amrket participants has dropped significantly as investors are shifting their focus towards the announcmenet of the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed). But before that, investors will keep an eye over the release of the United States Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index (Dec) data. Reuters estimates show that markets expect the core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis and forecast the annual rate to decline to 4.4% from 4.7% in November. A decline in the economic data shouldn’t surprise investors as Decembers’ core Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) have already dropped significantly. Read next: Trump Returns To Social Media, Meta Will Restore The Former President's Account| FXMAG.COM Volatilty triggered in the market ahead of the Fed’ monetary policy has accelerated selling pressure in the risk-perceived assets. S&P500 futures have dropped sharply amid pessimism that further interest rate hikes by Fed chair Jerome Powell will accelerate recession fears. Firms will be forced to halt their recruitiment process or might look for laying-off employees in anticipation of weaker demand projections. On the Indian Rupee front, fresh development over digital currency announced by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is impacting the Indian Rupee. RBI Executive Director Ajay Kumar mentioned that digital currency will further bolster the digital economy, make payment system more efficient.
Analysis Of USD/CHF Pair: The Swiss Currency Pair Rebounds

Analysis Of USD/CHF Pair: The Swiss Currency Pair Rebounds

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 27.01.2023 09:21
USD/CHF picks up bids to extend the previous day’s rebound from weekly low. Convergence of 200-SMA, support-turned-resistance line and a descending trend line from early January appears tough nut to crack for bulls. Impending bull cross on MACD, sustained bounce off 23.6% Fibonacci retracement suggest further recovery. USD/CHF grinds higher past 0.9200, mildly bid while extending the previous day’s rebound from the week’s low during early Friday. In doing so, the Swiss currency pair rebounds from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of its January 06-18 downside, near 0.9160 by the press time. It’s worth noting that the looming bull cross on the MACD adds strength to the USD/CHF rebound from 0.9160 support, which in turn signals further advances of the pair. As a result, the 200-SMA, downward-sloping resistance line from early January and the one-week-old previous support line, close to 0.9255-60, appear the key hurdle for the USD/CHF bulls before retaking control. In a case where the pair rises past 0.9260, the odds of witnessing a run-up toward the monthly high near 0.9410 can’t be ruled out. However, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 0.9285 and the 0.9300 round figure may act as intermediate halts during the expected rally. Alternatively, pullback moves need to conquer the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level surrounding 0.9160 to retake control. Following that, a downward trajectory towards the monthly low surrounding 0.9085 can’t be ruled out. It should be observed, however, that the USD/CHF weakness past 0.9085 makes it vulnerable to declining toward the August 2021 low near 0.9020. Read next: Trump Returns To Social Media, Meta Will Restore The Former President's Account| FXMAG.COM USD/CHF: Four-hour chart Trend: Limited recovery expected
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The GBP/JPY Cross-Currency Pair Remains Bearish

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 26.01.2023 08:57
GBP/JPY bounces off intraday low but stays negative on a day. BoJ Summary of Opinions suggest policymakers are divided considering higher inflation. UK Business Confidence gauge slumps to the lowest levels since 2009. Sluggish markets restrict immediate moves, Tokyo inflation eyed. GBP/JPY picks up bids to extend the latest rebound from the intraday low past 160.00 heading into Thursday’s London open. Even so, the cross-currency pair remains bearish on a day around 160.45 at the latest. The opening of the European and British markets seemed to have allowed the GBP/JPY pair traders to consolidate the daily losses amid sluggish market conditions ahead of the key US data concerning growth and spending. Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Summary of Opinions underpins the bearish bias of the GBP/JPY pair as policymakers are divided over the exit of the ultra-easy monetary policy considering the increasing inflation. “The divergence in views highlights the challenge policymakers face in determining whether the recent cost-driven rise in inflation will shift to one backed by robust demand and higher wages - a prerequisite for raising ultra-low interest rates,” said Reuters. On the other hand, fears of economic slowdown in the UK escalate amid downbeat prints of the British business sentiment index shared by Bloomberg. The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales said Thursday that its latest monitor of business sentiment dropped to an index reading of -23.4, the weakest since 2009. The last survey, published in November, stood at -16.9. Bloomberg also mentioned that the Federation of Small Businesses’ confidence index dropped to -46 points in the final quarter of 2022 from -36 in the third quarter. With this, the sentiment gauge dropped to the lowest level since 2014. It should be noted that the anxiety ahead of the next week’s bumper calendar comprising multiple key central bank meetings and Friday’s Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, expected 4.4% versus 4.0% prior, also weigh on the GBP/JPY prices. Furthermore, the downbeat performance of the Treasury bond yields adds to the bearish catalysts’ list for the quote. Technical analysis Although a two-week-old support line puts a floor under the GBP/JPY prices near 160.00, the recovery remains elusive unless the quote provides a daily closing beyond the 200-Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 162.20 by the press time
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WTI Crude Oil Is Expected Further Downside Movement

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 26.01.2023 08:54
WTI braces for first weekly loss in three on breaking 50-SMA, fortnight-long trend line. U-turn from two-month-old resistance, bearish MACD signals also keeps sellers hopeful. Ascending trend line from early January challenges immediate downside. WTI crude oil remains on the back foot as it braces for the first weekly loss, after a fortnight of an uptrend, amid early Thursday in Europe. The black gold’s latest weakness could be linked to its failure to cross the horizontal resistance area comprising multiple hurdles marked since early December 2022. Also, a clear downside break of the two-week-old ascending trend line and the 50-SMA joins the bearish MACD signals to bolster the downside bias. However, an upward-sloping support line from January 06, close to $79.80 by the press time, restricts the nearby downside of the black gold. Following that, the previous weekly low near $78.50 could act as an additional downside filter, a break of which may recall the Oil bears targeting the $70.00 round figure. During the fall, the monthly low and December’s bottom could probe the sellers around $72.60 and $70.25 in that order. Alternatively, 50-SMA restricts WTI’s immediate upside near $80.70 ahead of the support-turned-resistance line from mid-January, close to $81.70 at the latest. It’s worth noting, however, that the WTI bulls need to offer a successful break of the two-month-old horizontal hurdle surrounding $82.80, to retake control. WTI: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected
Market Focus: European Data Releases, ECB Survey, US FOMC Minutes, and UK Bond Supply

The Kiwi Pair (NZD/USD) Is Expected To Remain On The Tenterhooks

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 26.01.2023 08:51
NZD/USD is displaying back-and-forth action ahead of US GDP data. The USD Index is aiming to build a cushion around 101.20 despite the risk-on market mood. The Ascending Triangle formation is indicating a squeeze in volatility. The NZD/USD pair is continuously facing hurdles in recapturing the psychological resistance of 0.6500 in the early European session. The Kiwi asset is expected to remain on the tenterhooks as investors are awaiting the release of the United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is aiming to build a cushion around 101.20 as anxiety among investors is escalating regarding the US GDP, core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), and Durable Goods Orders data. Meanwhile, positive market sentiment is solidifying further as the S&P500 futures have extended their morning gains. NZD/USD is displaying topsy-turvy action in an Ascending Triangle chart pattern that indicates volatility contraction on an hourly chart. The New Zealand Dollar has sensed demand after dropping to near the upward-sloping trendline plotted from January 19 low at 0.6365 while the horizontal resistance is placed from January 18 high at 0.6531. The 20-EMA at 0.6483 is overlapping the Kiwi asset, which indicates consolidation ahead. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in a 40.00-60.00 range, which indicates an absence of a potential trigger for a decisive move. For an upside move, the asset needs to surpass Wednesday’s high at 0.6530, which will drive the asset toward June 3 high at 0.6576. A breach of the latter will expose the asset to the round-level resistance at 0.6600. On the flip side, a breakdown below January 16 high at 0.6426 will drag the Kiwi asset toward January 17 low at 0.6366 followed by January 12 low around 0.6300. NZD/USD hourly chart  
Further Upward Price Movement Of The AUD/USD Pair Is Expected

The Aussie Pair Traders Cheer A Hawkish Hopes Of the Reserve Bank Of Australia (RBA)

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 26.01.2023 08:47
AUD/USD seesaws around five-month high, up for the fifth consecutive day. Hong Kong’s upbeat return after five-day holidays, Tesla earnings underpin favor firmer sentiment. Strong Aussie inflation renewed talks of RBA’s 0.25% rate hike versus previous chatters of policy pivot. US Q4 GDP, PCE Price data will be crucial for clear directions ahead of next week’s FOMC. AUD/USD clings to mild gains above 0.7100 as bulls take a breather after refreshing the five-month high during early Thursday in Europe. That said, the Aussie pair traders cheer Hong Kong’s resumption of trading after five days, as well as hawkish hopes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) after the previous day’s strong Aussie inflation data. However, a cautious mood ahead of the first readings of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) seems to challenge the quote’s upside. Additionally probing the AUD/USD buyers is the Australia Day holiday. Hong Kong’s equity benchmark Hang Seng leads the Asia-Pacific gainers with above 2.0% gains by the press time even if markets in Australia, India and China are closed. The reason for the upbeat sentiment could be linked to the market chatters suggesting strong holiday spending in China. Elsewhere, the reversal in the previous talks of the RBA’s policy pivot, especially after the upbeat Aussie Q4 and monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, also underpins the AUD/USD pair’s upside moves. As per the latest market chatters, the odds favoring the RBA’s 0.25% hike are back on the table after a brief absence. It should be noted that the upbeat performance of Tesla jostles with Microsoft’s risk-negative headlines to offer a mixed move to the S&P 500 Futures and challenge the risk-barometer AUD/USD pair. However, the downbeat US Treasury bond yields and the broad US dollar weakness ahead of the key data keep the buyers hopeful. Looking forward, the US Q4 GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price data will be important for the immediate direction. Also crucial will be the US Durable Goods Orders and trade data for December. That said, the downbeat expectations from the scheduled US data keep the pair buyers in the driver’s seat but a positive surprise could trigger a notable reaction ahead of the next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Also read: US Gross Domestic Product Preview: Three reasons to expect a US Dollar-boosting outcome Technical analysis Higher highs on RSI (14) contrast with the lower high on AUD/USD prices and challenge the current bullish trend. As a result, multiple highs marked since June 2022, near 0.7140 will be the key to watch. Also read: AUD/USD Price Analysis: Steadies around 0.7100 amid hidden bearish RSI divergence
Economic Calendar Details and Trading Analysis - August 7 & 8

The USD/INR Pair Is Likely To Witness A More Sluggish Day Ahead

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 26.01.2023 08:45
USD/INR pares recent losses amid holiday in India, cautious mood ahead of key US data. Mixed sentiment restricts market moves as traders await US Q4 GDP, PCE Price data. Odds favoring higher foreign fund inflow and softer Oil price favor INR buyers. Concerns surrounding Fed’s pivot keep US Dollar on a dicey floor. USD/INR retreats to 81.45 while paring the intraday gains during early Thursday. The Indian Rupee (INR) pair initially reacted to the US Dollar’s corrective bounce ahead of the key data but price-positive signals for the INR joined Indian holidays to recall the bears. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) bears take a breather around an eight-month low as traders await the first readings of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expected to print annualized growth of 2.6% versus 3.2% prior. Also important are the US Durable Goods Orders for December and the Q4 Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price data. It’s worth noting that the downbeat US Treasury yields and hawkish bets on the European Central Bank (ECB), versus the recently increasing odds favoring the Fed’s policy pivot, seem to exert downside pressure on the DXY. “Traders broadly expect the Fed to increase rates by 25 basis points (bps) next Wednesday, a step down from a 50 bps increase in December,” said Reuters. Elsewhere, the expected jump in the Indian foreign fund inflow due to the Adani Enterprise offerings joins the recently easing WTI crude oil prices to weigh on the USD/INR prices. That said, the WTI crude oil drops nearly half a percent to $80.30 by the press time. On the other hand, the hopes of more public sector demands and importers’ moves, as well as the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) actions, could weigh on the INR. Given the Republic Day holiday in India, USD/INR is likely to witness a more sluggish day ahead, in addition to the pre-data anxiety. That said, the downbeat expectations from the scheduled US data keep the pair sellers hopeful but a positive surprise could trigger a notable reaction ahead of the next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Also read: US Gross Domestic Product Preview: Three reasons to expect a US Dollar-boosting outcome Technical analysis A two-week-old bearish channel restricts USD/INR moves between 80.80 and 81.75 at the latest
Weaker Crude Oil Prices Undermine The Loonie Pair (USD/CAD)

The Loonie Pair (USD/CAD) Is Looking To Shift Its Business

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 26.01.2023 08:43
USD/CAD is aiming to shift its auction above 1.3400 as the BoC has reached the terminal rate for now. The rising probability of a smaller interest rate hike by the Fed is weighing on US yields. Oil price is losing foot above $80.50 as oil demand sees short-term pain due to China’s Lunar New Year holidays. The USD/CAD pair has corrected marginally after a recovery move from 1.3380 in the Asian session. The Loonie asset is looking to shift its business above 1.3400 despite a recovery attempt from the US Dollar Index (DXY). The recovery attempt in the USD Index seems less confident amid the risk-on market mood. S&P500 futures are showing marginal gains in early Asia after settling almost flat on Wednesday. The 500-stock basket has turned volatile as corporate are demonstrating their quarterly performance through earnings displays. The USD Index is putting efforts in building a cushion around a seven-month low at 101.10 ahead of the United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) and other economic data, which will release on Thursday. The rising probability of a smaller interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) for its February meeting is weighing on the US Treasury yields. The alpha generated by the 10-year US Treasury bonds has dropped to 3.44%. The street is expecting a contraction in the scale of economic activities in the fourth quarter to 2.6% from the former release of 3.2% as Fed chair Jerome Powell has burnt their hands by triggering recession fears in his fight against stubborn inflation. The release of the Durable Goods Orders (Dec) will provide cues about the forward demand, which is expected to jump to 2.5% vs. the prior release of -2.1%. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar is expected to face the heat as Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem has paused further policy tightening after pushing the interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5%. The BoC will keep interest rates steady at 4.5% for the rest of the year and will assess the impact of yet terminal rate ahead. On the oil front, oil price is struggling to sustain above 80.50 as celebrations in China due to the Lunar New Year festival has resulted in a pause in economic activities and henceforth a short-term pain in the oil demand. It is worth noting that Canada is a leading exporter of oil to the United States and lower oil prices might impact the Canadian Dollar.  
Market Focus: European Data Releases, ECB Survey, US FOMC Minutes, and UK Bond Supply

The New Zealand Dollar Weakens A Bit Following The Release Of CPI Data

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 25.01.2023 10:46
NZD/USD meets with some supply in reaction to unimpressive consumer inflation data. The yearly CPI rate falls short of RBNZ’s forecast and weighs on the domestic currency. Subdued USD price action lends some support to the pair and helps limit deeper losses. The NZD/USD pair comes under some selling pressure on Wednesday and snaps a three-day winning streak back closer to its highest level since June 2022 touched last week. The pair remains depressed below the 0.6500 psychological mark through the early European session, though lacks follow-through amid subdued US Dollar price action. The New Zealand Dollar weakens a bit following the release of domestic consumer inflation data, which showed that the headline CPI decelerated to 1.4% during the fourth quarter from the 2.2% previous. Adding to this, the annual inflation rate came in below the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) 7.5% forecast and remained stable at 7.2%. The data forces investors to lower the expectations for the cash rate peak in New Zealand to 5%, from 5.5% and prompts some selling around the NZD/USD pair. Furthermore, worries about a deeper global economic downturn keep a lid on any optimism in the markets and further contributes to driving flows away from the risk-sensitive Kiwi. That said, the underlying bearish sentiment surrounding the greenback helps limit the downside for the NZD/USD pair. In fact, the USD Index, which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of currencies, remains depressed near a nine-month low amid expectations for a less aggressive tightening by the Fed. Read next: South African Petrochemical Company Sasol Is Moving Away From Fossil Fuels, Germany Again Refused To Send Tanks To Ukraine| FXMAG.COM The markets now seem convinced that the US central bank will soften its hawkish stance and have been pricing in a greater chance of a smaller 25 bps rate hike in February. This might continue to weigh on the buck and supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying around the NZD/USD pair. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the pair has topped out in the near term and positioning for any deeper corrective pullback. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Wednesday. That said, the broader risk sentiment might influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to the NZD/USD pair. Traders, however, might prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of this week's important US macro releases, including the Advance Q4 GDP print and the Core PCE Price Index on Thursday and Friday, respectively.
The RBA Is Expected To Raise Rates By 25bp Next Week

Australia Inflation Report Helps The AUD/USD Pair

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 25.01.2023 10:26
AUD/USD takes the bids to rise to a fresh high since August 2022. A clear upside break of previous resistance from November, bullish MACD signals favor buyers. Nearly overbought RSI (14), multiple hurdle since June 2022 challenge immediate upside. AUD/USD bulls cheer the strong Aussie inflation data as the quote renews the five-month peak near 0.7115 during early Wednesday. In addition to the upbeat prints of the quarterly Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Reserve Bank of Australia Trimmed Mean CPI, the Aussie pair’s ability to successfully cross an ascending trend line from November 15, around 0.7095 at the latest, also favor the bulls. It’s worth noting that the bullish MACD signals add strength to the upside move. However, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since June 2022, around 0.7130-40 restricts appears a strong resistance for the AUD/USD pair traders. Adding strength to the stated hurdle is the overbought condition of the RSI (14). Should the Aussie pair stays comfortably beyond 0.7140, the odds of witnessing the pair’s run-up toward the mid-2022 peak surrounding 0.7285 can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, intraday sellers could take entries in case the AUD/USD price drops below the resistance-turned-support line near 0.7095. Read next: The Aussie Pair Is Above 0.70$, GBP/USD Pair Lost Its Level Of 1.24$| FXMAG.COM Even so, the previous weekly high near 0.7065 and the last Thursday’s low near 0.6870 may test the AUD/USD bears. It should be noted that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s June-October 2022 downside and the 200-DMA, respectively near 0.6855 and 0.6815, appear the last defense of the pair buyers as a clear of the same might confirm the bearish trend. AUD/USD: Daily chart Trend: Limited upside expected
Weaker Crude Oil Prices Undermine The Loonie Pair (USD/CAD)

A Hawkish Interest Rate Decision By The Bank Of Canada Might Strengthen The Canadian Dollar

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 25.01.2023 10:24
USD/CAD is set to extend the downside to near the weekly low around 1.3320. Bank of Canada is expected to hike the interest rate further by 25 bps to 4.5%. The expectation of a smaller interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve is backed by escalating recession fears. USD/CAD is expected to deliver a breakdown of the Inverted Flag chart pattern that might expand volatility ahead. USD/CAD is hovering near the critical support above 1.3340 in the early European session. The Loonie asset has dropped after failing to sustain above 1.3400 and is expected to decline further to near the weekly lows around 1.3320. The major is following the footprints of the US Dollar Index (DXY), which is displaying a subdued performance. Weakness in the S&P500 futures led by a dip in Microsoft earnings due to missed estimates in the cloud business and technical glitches in the NYSE has turned investors’ risk-averse. Also, investors are restricting themselves from building full-capacity positions ahead of the United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling to sustain above the 101.50 resistance. The alpha created by the US government bonds has rebounded firmly. The 10-year US Treasury yields have scaled to near 3.47%. Bank of Canada to tighten policy further To tame stubborn inflation, the Bank of Canada (BoC) might continue to tighten its monetary policy further. Canada’s inflation has been recorded at 6.3% from its December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is three times more than the 2% inflation target. According to a poll from Reuters, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem’s aggressive policy tightening campaign is expected to calm down as the street sees a further interest rate hike by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50%. Also, it conveys that the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates at 4.5% for the rest of the year, which indicates that this might be the end of further policy tightening. Canada’s headline inflation stood at 6.3% for December and is expected to remain above 2% inflation target till Q3CY2024. Factors that have kept Canada’s inflation at the rooftop are the tight labor market and supply chain bottlenecks. Upbeat employment opportunities have not provided a significant reason to producers to trim the prices of goods and services at factory gates. A higher-than-projected hawkish interest rate decision by the Bank of Canada might strengthen the Canadian Dollar. Oil price attempts a recovery from $80.00 Sheer weakness in the oil prices witnessed on Tuesday has met with demand in Wednesday morning around the critical support of $80.00. The black gold witnessed immense pressure as oil demand is expected to witness short-term pain due to extended holidays in Chinese markets for Lunar New Year celebrations. Also, the absence of chatters about supply cuts in the report from OPEC impacted the oil price. Meanwhile, the oil price has attempted a recovery amid headlines that the United States is considering refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). US President Joe Biden exploited the oil reserves to fight rising oil prices in CY2022. It is worth noting that Canada is a leading exporter of oil to the United States and a recovery in the oil price might support the Canadian Dollar. Read next: The Aussie Pair Is Above 0.70$, GBP/USD Pair Lost Its Level Of 1.24$| FXMAG.COM Contraction in US GDP might accelerate recession fears After a better-than-projected preliminary United States S&P PMI data, investors are shifting their focus toward the release of Thursday’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The street is expecting the fourth quarter GDP at 2.8% vs. the prior release of 3.2%. Investors should be aware of the fact that the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported negative growth in the first two quarters of CY2022. And further contraction in the fourth quarter might accelerate recession fears. The rationale behind softening of economic activities is the higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which has trimmed the leakage of borrowings due to higher interest obligations. Apart from that, chatters about interest rate policy by the Federal Reserve are impacting the US Dollar. The street is expecting a further deceleration in the pace of policy tightening by the Federal Reserve as inflation has been softened significantly. USD/CAD technical outlook USD/CAD is forming an Inverted Flag chart pattern on an hourly scale that indicates a sheer consolidation, which is followed by a breakdown in the same. Usually, the consolidation phase of the chart pattern serves as an inventory adjustment in which those participants initiate shorts, which prefer to enter an auction after the establishment of a bearish bias. Downward-sloping 20-and 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3365 and 1.3375 respectively are acting as a major barricade for the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in a 40.00-60.00 range, which indicates volatility contraction